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Cheap flights from Puerto Rico to Argentina
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Puerto Rico to Argentina
How far in advance should I book a flight from Puerto Rico to Argentina?
Travelers have found it's best to book a flight 17 days in advance to save up to 8% compared to booking the same week of travel. As your travel date approaches, the cost of this flight route may potentially increase. While opting to book 17 days out may not be an option for all, there are still additional ways to secure a deal in the near future. You might find a flight from Puerto Rico to Argentina 1-2 weeks in advance for as low as $955, or $1,073 for flights within the next 24 hours.
What is the cheapest month to fly from Puerto Rico to Argentina?
July is one of the best times of the year to fly to Argentina from Puerto Rico. Prices for July average $933 per person but you can even find prices for as low as $558. The most expensive prices can be found in the month of December. Opting for a July flight can save you 39% on your journey compared to booking in July
Cheap flights from Puerto Rico to Argentina in January, February 2021
The best prices found for Puerto Rico to Argentina flights for January, February
San Juan Luis Munoz Marin Intl
6 Feb - 13 Feb
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Cheap flights to Argentina from Puerto Rico found for this year
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From Puerto Rico to Argentina
Are flight prices decreasing from Puerto Rico to Argentina due to COVID-19 (coronavirus)?
At this time, Cheapflights has noticed price decreases for many domestic flights due to COVID-19. Travel is not necessarily recommended at this time, and flights may be prone to cancellation: please check with local authorities in both Puerto Rico and Argentina for travel alerts, and be sure to review the airline's cancellation policy and travel advisories before booking. For more information, please view our post on what to know about COVID-19 (coronavirus) and travel.
What safety measures are being taken by airlines flying from Puerto Rico to Argentina to control the spread of COVID-19?
New policies can now be found on Delta to help keep travelers safe while flying. Airline carriers are regularly disinfecting and sanitizing their aircraft. Masks are provided and are mandatory while on board. Pre-flight testing for symptoms and antibodies, alongside socially distanced seating (for a limited time) will work towards keeping travelers safer while flying from Puerto Rico to Argentina. Policies will vary by airline.
Which airlines flying from Puerto Rico to Argentina have flexible cancellations due to COVID-19?
Due to the rapidly changing circumstances due to COVID-19, airlines like Copa Airlines, Avianca, and American Airlines flying from Puerto Rico to Argentina have implemented new flexible cancellation policies.
Can I find flights from Puerto Rico to Argentina for under $800 on Cheapflights?
Yes, there are multiple flights from Puerto Rico to Argentina for under $800. The cheapest flight booked recently is on Multiple Airlines for just $750, but on average you can expect to pay $796.
Are there nonstop flights from Puerto Rico to Argentina for under $800 on Cheapflights?
There are no nonstop flights from Puerto Rico to Argentina, but Cheapflights can provide you with all the information you need to find the fastest route with the fewest stops.
Are there last-minute flights available from Puerto Rico to Argentina for under $900?
There are currently 20+ open flights from Puerto Rico to Argentina within the next 7 days for less than $900.
What are the most popular airlines that fly from Puerto Rico to Argentina?
The most popular airlines flying from Puerto Rico to Argentina are American Airlines, Avianca and Copa Airlines. Something to consider prior to booking your flight.
What are the most popular routes from Puerto Rico to Argentina?
Most travelers choose San Juan Luis Munoz Marin Intl - Buenos Aires Ministro Pistarini, San Juan Luis Munoz Marin Intl - Buenos Aires Jorge Newbery or San Juan Luis Munoz Marin Intl - Mendoza El Plumerillo when deciding on the best route from Puerto Rico to Argentina.
What are the cheapest Flights from Puerto Rico to Argentina?
While on average a flight from Puerto Rico to Argentina is generally $951, our data shows the cheapest flight currently is $565. When looking at the most popular route, (San Juan Luis Munoz Marin Intl - Buenos Aires Ministro Pistarini), you can expect to pay $630 for that flight.
How long is the flight from Puerto Rico to Argentina?
For as low as $770, Avianca can have you in Argentina from Puerto Rico in 10h 45m. Both multi-stop and nonstop flights can be found to your destination and back.
What are the cheapest airlines flying from Puerto Rico to Argentina round-trip?
Our cheapest airline available from Puerto Rico to Argentina is Avianca. Our recent data shows that you can find tickets from as low as $770 on this airline. An additional option worth looking into is Copa Airlines, starting at $774.
What are the cheapest airlines to fly from Puerto Rico to Argentina one-way?
The cheapest airlines for a one-way flight from Puerto Rico to Argentina are Copa Airlines ($495), Avianca ($512), and United Airlines ($637).
Flights to Argentina from Puerto Rico
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Car Rentals in Argentina Car Rentals at Aeropuerto Internacional Ezeiza/Ministro Pistarini Car Rentals at Pajas Blancas Car Rentals at El Plumerillo
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Things to know before you go. Useful info for your trip from Puerto Rico to Argentina
$1 = $85.74
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Top 5 airlines flying from Puerto Rico to Argentina
The chart below displays the airlines Cheapflights users traveling from Puerto Rico to Argentina choose most often. Cheapest and average prices are based on aggregated data from the past 12 months.
United Airlines $961 $1,107 No cancel fee 69%
Avianca $619 $1,149 No cancel fee 71%
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Copa Airlines $888 $1,179 No cancel fee 70%
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Delta $960 $1,214 No cancel fee N/A
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As RealClearScience recounts, the team (led by University of Montana grad student Michael Cramer) asked 11 trained male athletes to participate in the experiment. All the men completed a 90-minute endurance workout after fasting for half a day. Then, the scientists gave them some post-exercise snacks -- only half of them got Clif Shot Bloks, Gatorade, and organic peanut butter while the others received fast-food pancakes, hash browns, and OJ. Two hours after their feast, the athletes were given a second meal. The sad supplements group got PowerBars and Cytomax powder while the fast-food crowd dined on hamburgers and fries (with a Coke to wash it all down).
Another two hours later, the dudes got on stationary bikes and went through a new round of workouts. Throughout the whole setup, the researchers collected blood samples and did muscle biopsies to get the guys' specs at every step of the way. (And for symmetry's sake, they brought the gang in again a week later and flipped the supplement and fast-food groups.) Cramer and his team found no significant difference in performance between the two groups. Their insulin, glucose, cholesterol, and triglyceride levels were also pretty similar, as was their "stomach discomfort." These findings indicate there's no real difference between eating an order of fries versus a bucket of supplements, though it's important to note how short the trial was, and also that these guys were highly trained athletes. So you probably shouldn't start eating Quarter Pounders after every run, but you also probably don't need to eat Cytomax powder, because screw that.
Kristin Hunt is a Food/Drink staff writer for Thrillist, and would never choose energy powder over fries. Follow her at @kristin_hunt.


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Is FBNH the Rick Grimes of Nigeria?
Stock & Analyst Updates	 7346 VIEWS
Friday, February 17, 2017 10:14 AM / Exotix Partners
In this note we roll forward our model and asset quality sensitivity analysis for FBN Holding Limited.
If there ever was a Nigeria Banks version of the TV series The Walking Dead, we would like to think FBNH would get the role of the lead protagonist, Rick Grimes, who perennially survives a zombie apocalypse against overwhelming odds, despite making some questionable decisions along the way.
One gets the feeling that Rick is simply too big a character to kill-off. Likewise, FBNH began FY16 in a very precarious position (NPL ratio of 18%, capital buffer of only 210bp) and despite overwhelming odds (economic recession, devaluation of the NGN, FX scarcity, runaway inflation) survived the year – contrary to expectations – without raising extremely dilutive capital.
The bank's capital position was aided by an exceptional FX gain, continued de-risking of the balance sheet and continued low NPL cover on the expectation of a turnaround in asset quality.
Can it continue to survive?
With the odds continuing to stack up against it (and other Nigerian banks), the bank's capital position remains under the microscope. We think there is almost a 50:50 chance of the bank having to raise capital over the next 12 months, depending on the asset quality trajectory: – Bull case scenario (2% probability): in this scenario, we assume the bank makes a full recovery on three big oil and gas exposures and there is no further NPL deterioration.
Under this scenario, we estimate the bank's capital adequacy ratio stabilises at c17% in the short term and increases to 25.5% by FY21. – Base case scenario (50% probability): under this scenario, we assume partial recovery on three significant exposures and no further NPL deterioration.
On this path, the bank's CAR declines to 15.7% in FY17f before gradually recovering to 24.7% by FY21f. – Bear case scenario (48% probability): under this scenario, we assume the bank has to make full provisions on the three significant oil and gas exposures and the NPL ratio further deteriorates to 35%. Under this scenario, we estimate the bank would need to raise additional Tier 1 capital of NGN50bn to maintain its minimum CAR ratios.
Survival may depend on the regulator.
As noted above, we think there is a very high probability of the bank having to raise capital over the next 12 months. This might be complicated by lack of interest from foreign investors (due to a dysfunctional FX rate) and local investors (due to preference for high yielding government bills).
The survival of the bank may therefore be determined by the regulators, either in the form of temporary forbearance or direct capital injection. Like Rick Grimes, we think the bank is too systemically important to fail and will therefore get some form of assistance.
Nonetheless, similar to The Walking Dead killing off important characters in the past, we note that the during the 2009-12 Nigerian Banking crisis, the authorities let several banks which could have been considered "too big to fail" go under (Intercontinental, Oceanic, Bank PHB). We therefore think it is important not to place too much weight on the size of the bank in making any investment decisions.
We cut our target price, maintain HOLD rating on significant financial uncertainty
Our probability-weighted target price of NGN5.9 (down from NGN6.2 previously) suggests an expected total return of 89% at the current market price. Despite the significant upside we maintain our Hold recommendation due to several uncertainties (many of which are difficult to incorporate or predict) which may impact the bank's fundamentals, and the wide divergence in potential scenarios for shareholders. Our target price is 0.4x its FY17f BVPS based on the base case scenario.
Investment theme
Continues to survive...
The group ended the FY15 calendar year in a very precarious position with an NPL ratio of 18.1% (by far the highest within our universe), NPL cover of 39.5% (the lowest within our Nigeria Banks universe), 46% of loans being FX denominated and a capital adequacy ratio of 17.1% (only 210bp above the regulatory minimum). Given the vulnerabilities, the expectation was that its CAR would drop below the regulatory threshold due to a surge in risk assets following the devaluation and as a result of negligible internal capital generation as it improved its NPL cover.
Contrary to expectations, we forecast the bank to report a capital adequacy ratio of 16.2% at the end of FY16 despite not raising any capital during the year. The continued strong capital position was driven by:
Continued low NPL cover
Despite an estimated cost of risk of 7.5%, we estimate its aggregate NPL cover (including portfolio provisions) of 45.4% will continue to be significantly lower than its historical average of 72.9%.
The low NPL cover is attributed by management to optimism that the bank can recover three significant non-performing assets in the oil and gas sector, thus requiring minimum provisions.
Exceptional FX gains.
Despite the cost of risk increasing to an all-time high of 7.5%, we estimate the group will remain profitable (PBT of NGN38.0bn) largely due to an exceptional FX gain of NGN50bn. Excluding the gain would have resulted in a capital loss for the bank.
De-risking of the balance sheet
As at FY15, c59% of group loans were FX denominated. On that basis, we estimate net loans should have increased by at least 34% following the 58% devaluation of the Naira during the first nine months of 2016.
The reported 26% growth indicates that the bank continues to de-risk its balance sheet in real terms, just like in 2015 when net loans declined by 16.6% yoy. We estimate the continued de-risking of the balance sheet should sustain the bank's risk-weighted assets to total assets ratio at around 60%, thus easing capital pressure.
...but for how long?
As noted above, we estimate the bank remains in a very precarious position due to its continued high NPL ratio and a capital ratio that just about satisfies the regulatory threshold.
With the macro-environment remaining challenging, we estimate there is an almost 50:50 chance of the bank either continuing to survive or having to raise significant equity capital, which given its current valuation (FY16f P/BVPS of 0.2x) would be extremely dilutive for existing shareholders (not to mention unpalatable for international shareholders given the potential of a significant Naira devaluation).
Note, we assume any capital injection will be in the form of Tier 1 capital as we estimate the bank's Tier 2 capital will contribute 25% of total FY16 capital, which is the maximum limit set by the CBN.
In our view, the key determinant for the bank will be the recoverability of the three large oil and gas exposures and potential further asset quality deterioration (or recovery), which forms the basis of the stress test analysis we first introduced in 2014 and updated last year (available on request). Before we articulate our updated stress test analysis, we would like to recall the three significant and concentrated bad debts, which management says are behind its above-industry-average NPL ratio.
As highlighted above, our discussions with management indicate all three loans are within the oil and gas sector and the aggregate exposure is US$550-600mn (c27% of end-FY16 NPLs). Of this, the largest exposure (US$400mn) is in the upstream segment and on this management remains hopeful that the government (which took over the asset following a dispute with the previous strategic investor) can find another strategic investor who will take over the amount owed to the government (believed to be in the region of US$1.2-2.0bn) as well as FBNH.
Regarding the other two loans, our discussions with management indicate that one of the loans has been successfully restructured and the loan should be re-classified as a performing loan (assuming it continues to remain performing during the period), while the bank has reached agreement with the owners of the third loan to liquidate the collateral (high value commercial real estate estates) which should cover any further losses on the exposure (and therefore does not require further provisioning).
The successful restructuring of these three loans is therefore a key determinant of the bank's profitability and capital adequacy trajectory. In the following sections, we hypothesise three potential scenarios:
Bull case scenario
Under this scenario, we assume the bank successfully restructures and/or recovers the significant exposures detailed above in FY17. We further assume no further significant deterioration in asset quality.
Under this scenario, we estimate the group NPL ratio will decline to 15% by the end of the current financial year, and to 5% by FY19. Further, we assume the cost of risk declines to 3% (bringing the aggregate cost of risk to 15.2% between FY15 and FY17) which should boost the NPL cover to 77.1%.
Based on our profitability estimates (average ROE of 18.6%) and dividend payout assumptions (6.2% in FY17 increasing to 26..4% by FY21) under this scenario, we estimate the bank will generate sufficient internal capital and will not require further significant de-risking of its balance sheet; we estimate its gross LDR will decline by 7ppt to 70% in FY17 and remain at that level through FY21, and that should improve its CAR to 19% in FY17 and 25.5% by FY21.
As per our update on Guaranty Trust Bank and Zenith Bank (see Zenith vs GTB: mind the valuation Gap, it could get bigger), we attach a very low probability to our Bull case scenario (2%) given the continued macro-economic headwinds in the country, especially the dysfunctional FX policy which we believe is creating significant asset quality pressures for the banks.
Under our base case scenario, we assume no further significant deterioration in asset quality in the short term and that the bank makes partial recoveries on the three significant oil and gas exposures (especially the US$400mn exposure).
Under this scenario, we estimate the cost of risk will remain relatively elevated in the short term as the bank makes provisions on the rest of its bad book (as noted above, the three significant exposures account for only 27% of its FY16 NPLs) and builds it NPL cover.
The continued high cost of risk combined with the decline in exceptional gains will result in the ROE dropping to 3.0% in FY17 before recovering to 11.6% in FY18 and 24.4% by FY21 as the risk charge moderates.
The low internal capital generation will require the bank to continue de-risking its balance sheet more aggressively to maintain its capital ratio; we estimate the bank's gross LDR will have to decline to 68.5% in FY17 and to 60% by FY19. Based on our LDR estimates, we estimate loan growth will be in the single digits in FY17 and FY18 (5.0% in FY17 and 5.5% in FY18) before accelerating to a CAGR of 13.9% through the rest of our forecast period.
Apart from moderating risk asset growth, we estimate the bank will also need to sustain a low dividend; we estimate an average payout ratio of 21.2% over the five-year period between FY17 and FY21. Based on our assumptions, we estimate the bank's CAR will drop to 15.7% in FY17 before gradually recovering to 24.7% by FY21.
Given its systemic importance, we believe the bank will be given sufficient time by the regulator to resolve its core NPLs. We therefore attach a 50% probability to this scenario.
Bear case scenario
Under this scenario, we estimate the bank not only has to make full provisions on its current bad debt portfolio (including the three large exposures), but also on a further deterioration of the NPL ratio to 35%.
Given the current macro-environment, we think a further deterioration in asset quality is feasible, especially in the manufacturing and general commerce sectors which account for almost a quarter of its portfolio.
As mentioned above, under this scenario, we envisage its NPL ratio to peak at 35% before gradually declining to 4% by FY21 as the bank gradually makes provisions and writes-off the bad debt.
Unlike the base and bull case scenario, we assume the cost of risk will remain significantly elevated in the short term as it makes full provisions on the bad debts; we estimate an average cost of risk of 8% between FY16 and FY18, declining to 3% by FY21.
A persistently high cost of risk combined with decline in exceptional FX gains will result in a loss making position in FY17 and FY18, which will negatively impact the bank's precarious capital position (which we estimate will drop below the regulatory threshold in FY17).
In order to meet its regulatory capital requirements, we believe the bank will have to aggressively cut its dividends (we assume it pays no dividends until FY20), de-risk its balance sheet (we estimate the bank will have to cut its loan-todeposit ratio from 77.5% in FY16 to 65% in FY17 – resulting in nominal loan growth of -0.4%) – and 55% by FY20) and potentially raise more capital (to plug the capital hole we estimate it may need to raise Tier 1 capital of NGN50bn vs its current market cap of NGN116bn).
Based on our assumptions, we estimate the bank's CAR to drop by 100bp yoy to 16.1% in FY16, edging up to 16.8% in FY17 (on the back of the potential capital issuance) and 19.7% by FY21.
As indicated above, given the continued economic malaise in Nigeria, we think there is roughly an equal chance of our base and bear case scenarios becoming a reality. We therefore attach a 48% probability to our bear case scenario, in effect we continue to imply a potentially dilutive capital issuance for shareholders. The latter will be further complicated by the dysfunctional FX market and subsequent low foreign investor confidence towards NGN denominated assets and local investors' general preference for government securities.
Short-term profitability trajectory remains as uncertain as ever
Based on the above scenarios, our FY17 ROE estimate ranges from as high as 14.1% to as low -4.2%. On a probability weighted basis, we estimate the bank's ROE will continue to remain below our COE until FY20, partly justifying its current valuation; we estimate an average probability weighted ROE of 11.7% between FY17 and FY21, which implies a justified P/BVPS of 0.3x (using a terminal growth rate of 8% and cost of equity of 20%).
Valuation methodology
We tweak our usual dividend discount valuation methodology slightly in view of the asset quality uncertainty. We calculate an intrinsic value for each scenario as per the methodology below. We then calculate our target price using the probability of each scenario to calculate a weighted average intrinsic value, to which we add the final dividend for FY16.
Intrinsic value calculation methodology
To calculate our fair value estimate for each scenario we apply a two-stage dividend discount model:
Stage 1 - between FY17 and FY21 we estimate the present value of dividends using the profitability drivers discussed above.
Stage 2 – we determine the terminal value as the perpetual growth rate in the bank's book value based on its average ROE between FY17 and FY21 and a terminal growth rate assumption of 8.0%.
We assume a cost of equity (CoE) of 20.0%*, using a risk-free rate of 11.0%, an equity risk premium of 9% and a beta of 1.0x. As our valuation is Nigerian nairabased, we have applied an 8% terminal growth rate.
*Our equity risk premium for FBNH is higher than our normal 5% due to the significant uncertainties facing the bank including, as described above, potential capital issuance, aggressive de-risking of the balance sheet and successful restructuring of large governmentrelated oil and gas exposures.
The table below summarises our valuation estimates for each scenario.
Key risks
The key risks to our earnings and valuation estimates are:
Asset quality: as discussed above, the biggest source of uncertainty for Nigerian banks' profitability is the quality of their balance sheet. We have mitigated this risk by calculating probability-weighted profitability and earnings estimates. Nonetheless, a higher or lower than expected deterioration in asset quality is a big source of uncertainty (especially in the upstream oil and gas sector).
FX policy: in this report, we have implicitly assumed the Naira devalues by 27.5% and the liberalisation of the exchange rate eases the liquidity of FX flows in the system, enabling banks to cover their LC positions and roll over their FXdenominated borrowings. A higher than expected devaluation and/or continued constraint in FX liquidity could, in our opinion, result in a liquidity crisis in Nigeria.
Capital uncertainty: as highlighted above, the bank's capital position remains precarious and requires the bank to continue de-risking its balance sheet. Inability to de-risk the balance sheet (as obligors may find it difficult to pay down their loans) and/or higher than expected asset quality losses may require the bank to raise significantly higher than expected capital, which would be highly dilutive for shareholders.
1. Asset Quality Challenges Continue to Bite FBN Holdings Earnings, retain BUY
2. FBNH Declares N42.52 bn Profit in Q3 16 SP N3.00k
3. FirstBank Partners Nigerian-British Chamber of Commerce to drive MSME Growth.
4. FBN Holdings Plc Appoints Mr. Patrick Iyamabo as CFO for FirstBank of Nigeria Limited
5. Appointments within the FBN Holdings Group
6. FBN Holdings Plc Strong FX Gain Tapers Impact of Impairment Loss
7. Devaluation Serves as Earnings Outperformance Catalyst for FBN Holdings Plc in H1 2016
8. FBN Holdings Plc: Strong FX Gain Tapers Impact of Impairment Loss
9. FBNH Declares N35.9bn Profit Records 10.5 PAT decline in Q2 16 SP N3.45k
10. FBNH Issues Notification of Invitation of FirstBank ED by the EFCC
11. FBNH Conference Call Update - Begins Complete Overhaul of Risk Mgmt Framework
12. FBNH - Impairment charges erode returns though not without Silver-lining
13. FBNH Q4 15 Q1 16 Conference Call Earnings Presentation The key takeaways
14. FBNH FY 15 Q1 16 results - House cleaning as earnings plunge NPL ratio at a 10 year high
15. FBNH Releases Q4 15 and Q1 16 Results Records 82 PAT decline in Q4 SP N3.31k
16. FBNH Board Approves 2015 Audited Results Awaits Regulatory Approval
17. FBN Holdings Plc Extends Closed Period to April 5 2016 Postpones Board Meeting
18. FBN Holdings Plc Holds Board Meeting on 22nd March 2016 To Observe Closed Period
19. FBN Holdings Plc Issues Profit Warning for Year Ended 31 December 2015-
20. FBN Holding Plc records 13.53% decline in PAT as Gross Earnings up by 17.46 in Q3 15
21. FBNH declares N40.1 billion PAT in Q2 15 result SP N7.80k
22. FBNH declares N22.6billion PAT in Q1 15 result SP N10.50k
23. FBNH Proposes 10kobo dividend 1 for 10 Bonus in 2014 Audited result
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Q: Basic question about real-analytic functions Let $f:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ to be a real-analytic function in the whole line. Then, we can write $f(x)$ as the (convergente) power series $$
f(x)=\sum_{n=0}^\infty a_nx^n, \quad \hbox{where}\quad a_n:=\dfrac{f^{(n)}(0)}{n!},
$$
where $f^{(n)}(0)$ denotes its $n$-th derivative evaluated at $x=0$. I am wondering if the following property is true: There exists a constant $C>0$ such that for all $n=0,1,2,...$ we have $$
\vert a_n\vert \leq \dfrac{C}{n!} \ ?
$$
At first glance I was thinking that this should be true, but then I kept thinking that I have no control on the growth of $f^{(n)}(0)$ as $n$ growths. However, since the series is convergent, $a_n$ should always goes to zero, so... but that doesn't mean that the decay-rate must to be of order $\tfrac{1}{n!}$, right? That is actually what motivated my question, the decay at rate $\tfrac{1}{n!}$. In other words (if you want), can exist a real-analytic function so that the sequence of $f^{n}(0)$ behaves as (for example) $$
f^{(n)}(0)=\dfrac{n!}{n^{10}} \quad \hbox{so that} \quad a_n=\dfrac{1}{n^{10}}?
$$
This should also produce a convergent series, at least for $x\in (-1,1)$ small right?

A: A counterexample is
$$
 f(x) = xe^x = \sum_{n=1}^\infty \frac{x^n}{(n-1)!}
$$
where
$$
 n! a_n = \frac{n!}{(n-1)!} = n
$$
is unbounded. Another example is
$$
 g(x) = e^{x^2} = \sum_{n=0}^\infty \frac{x^{2n}}{n!}
$$
where for the even-indexed coefficients
$$
 (2n)!a_{2n} = \frac{(2n)!}{n!} = (n+1)(n+2)\ldots(2n)
$$
grows faster than any polynomial.
What you can say about the growth is that $\lim_{n\to\infty} \sqrt[n]{|a_n|} = 0$ if $\sum_{n=0}^\infty a_n x^n $ is convergent for all $x \in \Bbb R$, this follows from the formula for the radius of convergence of a power series.

A: The function $f(x)=\dfrac{1}{1+x^2}$ is real analytic on the whole line, but the Taylor series of $f$ centered at $0$ is
$$1-x^2+x^4- x^6 +\cdots.$$
Thus $|a_n|=1$ for all even $n.$

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


'Train to Busan' Director's 'Psychokinesis' Grabbed by Netflix - Horror News Network - The Horror News You Need!
Great news for fans of Yeon Sang-ho's 2016 hit zombie film Train to Busan as media giant Netflix acquires the rights to his next film Psychokinesis. Last year's Train to Busan was on many people's "top horror films of the year" list so it comes as no surprise that his next film was snatched up quickly.
Stay tuned to Horror News Network as we will be on top of all news and release dates for Psychokinesis.
What's Your Favorite Scary Movie? How About Your State's Favorite?


text:
News > Medscape Medical News > Conference News > ATA 2022
Don't Be Afraid of Weight Gain With Hyperthyroid Treatment
Nancy A. Melville
MONTREAL — Amid common patient concerns about weight gain in the treatment of hyperthyroidism, findings from a large study suggest the therapy with the most favorable survival rate — radioiodine — is not associated with an increased risk of weight gain or obesity.
"EGRET is the first large study using population-based linked community and hospital data to elucidate the long-term consequences of treatment modalities for hyperthyroidism," said co-author Kristien Boelaert, MD, PhD, while presenting the research this week at the American Thyroid Association (ATA) 2022 Annual Meeting.
"The administration of [radioiodine] for hyperthyroidism is associated with a survival benefit for patients with hyperthyroidism and is not associated with increased risks of becoming obese," Boelaert, a professor of endocrinology and consultant endocrinologist with the Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, UK, told Medscape Medical News.
However, "Overall, there was a nearly 10% risk of major adverse cardiac events [MACE] in patients with hyperthyroidism regardless of the treatment modality used," she noted.
Commenting on the findings, Jonathon O. Russell, MD, said the study offers surprising — but encouraging — results.
The discovery that radioiodine shows no increase in weight gain "contradicts numerous previous studies which have consistently demonstrated weight gain following definitive radioiodine," Russell told Medscape Medical News.
Overall, however, "these findings reinforce our knowledge that definitive treatment of an overactive thyroid leads to a longer life — even if there is some weight gain," added Russell, who is chief of the Division of Head and Neck Endocrine Surgery at Johns Hopkins in Baltimore, Maryland.
Hyperthyroidism Associated With Serious Long-Term Cardiometabolic Issues
Hyperthyroidism is associated with serious long-term cardiovascular and metabolic morbidity and mortality, and treatment is therefore essential. However, the swing to hypothyroidism that often occurs afterward commonly results in regaining the weight lost due to the hyperthyroidism if not more, potentially leading to obesity and its attendant health risks.
To investigate those risks in relation to the three key hyperthyroidism treatments, the authors conducted the EGRET trial. They identified 62,474 patients in the UK population-based electronic health record database who had newly diagnosed hyperthyroidism and were treated with antithyroid drugs (73.4%), radioiodine (19.5%), or thyroidectomy (7.1%) between April 1997 and December 2015.
Exclusion criteria included those with less than 6 months of antithyroid drugs as the only form of treatment, thyroid cancer, or pregnancy during the first episode.
With a median follow-up of about 8 years, those who were treated with thyroidectomy had a significantly increased risk of gaining weight compared with the general population (P < .001) and of developing obesity (body mass index > 30 kg/m2; P = .003), while the corresponding increases with antithyroid drugs and radioiodine were not significantly different compared with the general population over the same period.
In terms of survival, with an average follow-up of about 11 years per person, about 14% of the cohort died, with rates of 14.4% in the antithyroid drug group, 15.8% in the radioiodine group, and 9.2% in the thyroidectomy group.
Mortality rates were further assessed based on an average treatment effects analysis in which the average change was estimated in comparison to the index of antithyroid drugs, for instance, if all were treated instead with radioiodine. In that extension of life analysis, those treated with radioiodine could be expected to die, on average, 1.2 years later than those taking antithyroid drugs (P < .001), while those treated with thyroidectomy would be expected to die 0.6 years later, which was not statistically significant.
Using the same average treatment effects analysis, Boelaert noted, "We found a slightly increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events following radioiodine compared with antithyroid drugs, [however], the risk was very small and may not be clinically relevant."
"Previous data from our and other groups have shown reduced risks of mortality and cardiovascular death following radioiodine-induced hypothyroidism, although this is not confirmed in all studies."
Weight Gain After Hyperthyroid Treatment Drives Concerns
The findings are important because weight gain associated with hyperthyroidism treatment is no small matter for many patients, even prompting a lack of adherence to therapy for some, despite its importance, Boelaert noted.
"Since the majority of patients lose weight as a consequence of being hyperthyroid, it can be expected that they will at least regain the lost weight and possibly even have a weight overshoot," she explained. "Indeed, many patients are reluctant to accept definitive treatment with surgery or radioiodine out of fear of weight gain."
"This may cause difficulties to some patients who occasionally may even stop taking antithyroid drugs to prevent this weight regain. Such lack of adherence may have dire consequences and is likely a contributing factor to the increased mortality in these patients," she observed.
In a previous study of 1373 patients, Boelaert and colleagues found that men treated for hyperthyroidism gained an average of 8.0 kg (17.6 lb) and women gained an average of 5.5 kg (12.1 lb).
Compared with the background population, men were significantly more likely to gain weight over the study period (odds ratio [OR], 1.7; P < .001) as were women (OR, 1.3; P < .001). Also in that study, radioiodine was associated with greater weight gain (0.6 kg; P < .001) compared with antithyroid drug treatment alone.
Russell added that even when weight gain does occur, the payoff of having treated the potentially serious state of hyperthyroidism is a highly beneficial trade-off.
Ultimately, "the goal of treating any patient with Graves' should be to get them to become hypothyroid as quickly as possible," he said. "Patients have options, and all of these options can be safe in the right situation."
"It is unrealistic to think that going from a hyperthyroid state to a low thyroid state will not result in weight gain for many patients," Russell added. "But the key point is that overall health is better despite this weight gain."
Boelaert has disclosed consulting fees paid to the University of Birmingham by Lilly and Eisai. Russell has reported no relevant financial relationships.
ATA 2022 Annual Meeting. Late-breaking abstract #47. Presented October 20, 2022.
Lead image: Dreamstime
Cite this: Don't Be Afraid of Weight Gain With Hyperthyroid Treatment - Medscape - Oct 21, 2022.
Freelance writer, Medscape
Disclosure: Nancy A. Melville has disclosed no relevant financial relationships.
Radiofrequency Ablation Gains Favor for Thyroid Nodules in US
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We've all heard that to write a good book you need a beginning, a middle and an end. Projects, whether they are small short-term pieces of work or large-scale construction works are no different to this.
We've all heard that to write a good book you need a beginning, a middle and an end. Projects, whether they are small short-term pieces of work or large-scale construction works are no different to this. The one thing they have in common is that they all have an obvious completion such as a successful product launch or the opening of a new bridge. In other words, projects are one-offs that are never repeated, they aren't the routine business activities that people often get bored with.
The Beginning – at the start of a project you have to establish just exactly it is you are aiming to achieve. This might sound obvious but can you put down some objective measures that you can test your success against later? It's also at the start that you need to put a timescale in place for the major elements of your project. The start and end dates might be straightforward but also consider what the major steps are along the way. The only thing to do now is to estimate how much this project will cost or perhaps how much budget you can assign to it. By looking at what you need to achieve and the timescales involved you can now gauge how much will be spent when and on what. It could be external suppliers or your own time and effort. Think through your objectives, timescale and costs a few times until you are happy that they fit your needs.
The Middle – this is where you need to get implementing and is often what business owners really enjoy but without doing some of the basics in the beginning things can go wrong very quickly. Once you have your timescales and budget in place you can measure your success or otherwise as you move forward. This doesn't have to be anything sophisticated but it does allow you to make informed decisions along the way.
The End – you are now at the stage where everything is (hopefully) coming together and you are launching your new product or opening that new site. Was it a success though? Go back and look at the objectives, timescale and costs from the beginning. How close are you to what you planned for? Remember, meeting all the objectives in twice the time and for three times the cost isn't necessarily success.
Believe it or not, many of the activities you get involved in when running your business can be considered a stand-alone Project and can benefit from the application of some basic project management techniques. Like many disciplines project management has a language all to itself and can be extremely off putting for many people. Keeping it to the basics though can be a real benefit for many business owners to help them focus on very specific objectives, timescales and costs.


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There Are Such Things by Tommy Dorsey & Frank Sinatra
Murder, He Says - Dinah Shore
Stormy Weather (Keeps Rainin' All the Time) - Lena Horne
I Had the Craziest Dream - Vera Lynn
It's Always You - Tommy Dorsey & Frank Sinatra
Terra Seca - 4 Ases & Um Coringa
Why Don't You Do Right - Benny Goodman
People Will Say We're in Love - Bing Crosby & Trudy Erwin
Harry James - I Had the Craziest Dream
Glenn Miller - That Old Black Magic
Tommy Dorsey Top Songs in the Charts Top One Hit Wonders of the 1940s Top Pop One Hit Wonders
There Are Such Things was the #6 song in 1943 in the Pop charts. The song was performed by Tommy Dorsey. The song also included appearances from Frank Sinatra. Comment below with facts and trivia about the song and we may include it in our song facts!
Nr. 1 Hit in Deutschland an deinem Geburtstag
What Was #1 Country Song on your Birthday?


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Is ethanol production responsible for th...
Is ethanol production responsible for the increase in corn prices?
KOÇAK E., BİLGİLİ F., Bulut U., KUŞKAYA S.
Renewable Energy, vol.199, pp.689-696, 2022 (SCI-Expanded)
Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Environment Index, Geobase, Greenfile, Index Islamicus, INSPEC, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, DIALNET, Civil Engineering Abstracts
Keywords: Corn prices, Ethanol, Biofuels, Food prices, Non-linear smooth transition, Biofuel-food competition, FOOD-PRICES, ERROR-CORRECTION, OIL PRICES, BIOFUELS PRODUCTION, CO2 EMISSIONS, CRUDE-OIL, IMPACT, ENERGY, SECURITY, COINTEGRATION
© 2022 Elsevier LtdThis paper aims to investigate the effects of the production of ethanol, a renewable biofuel, oil prices, population, and exchange rate on corn prices in the US (1985:m1-2020:m7) using a nonlinear smooth transition model. According to the findings, (i) ethanol production (β1 = 0.072, p < 0.01) has an increasing effect on corn prices. (ii) Oil prices (β2 = 0.064, p < 0.05) and population (β3 = 0.851, p < 0.01) put a pressure on corn prices. (iii) The increase in the real exchange rate (β4 = −2.142, p < 0.01) has a decreasing effect on corn prices. The estimation results provide several critical policy implications for ethanol-food competition within the framework of sustainable development policies. First, ethanol production puts pressure on corn prices. Second, policy-oriented research on the biofuel-food competition can provide guidance to ensure sustainability. Finally, in the transformation process of the ethanol industry, technological innovations (use of second or third-generation biofuels) can moderate the food-fuel nexus.


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31 January 2023 - 1:06 PM
Expect the "Expecting" at Boston Playwrights Theatre
I don't really care for original works. I fully support them but I have a hard time reviewing them. I never know whether the play needs a new cast, a new director, or a few more workshops.
Expecting by Noah Tobin is a new work at Boston Playwright's Theatre. The play offers a unique premise on one woman's journey to have a baby with a five-year plan that doesn't include a man. I was excited for the hilarious struggles as this woman's plan goes hopelessly awry and she learns a valuable lesson in the end. Unfortunately, I was treated to a night of saccharine comedy and lukewarm moments between the close-knit family of characters.
Gabrielle, played by Jennifer Reagan, is a thirty-something who wants a kid. It's easy to see why; her life lacks much direction and she desperately wants to keep with her five-year plan. Reagan is a capable actress, but she lacks the star quality "it" factor to carry the day. She was frequently upstaged by some of the more dynamic members of her family and her would-be suitors. While she is committed to each moment and scene, her performance borders on the mediocre without much pizzazz or spunk. Thankfully, Gabrielle's sister Dani, played with some gusto by Kate Mock Elliott, has some spring in her step and spark in her voice. Her first scene with Reagan is outstanding, especially in comparison with the rest of the show. Throughout the performance, I kept wishing for more sister-sister moments. Elliott brings out the best in Reagan, especially in Tobin's script with clever line delivery and comedic timing, especially in silence.
Reagan struggles to develop the same chemistry with her other supporting actors. Her mother Sarah, played with under-stated brilliance by Josephine d'Angelo, is committed to each and every scene, especially towards her daughters. I really enjoyed d'Angelo's stage activities, from digging through her purse to Purell-ing her hands. I felt like Sarah was the wrong role for her; d'Angelo's fine acting was showcased in all the wrong ways. The script diverged in how the mother was being portrayed, and I had a difficult time following the many leaps and bounds of the character. Her best scenes were towards the beginning and I wish she was more consistent. I think Tobin's choice not to make her consistent caused some difficulty for Reagan to follow and commit to her scenes with her mother.
Equally hard to follow was her newest beau, Marshall, played with some charm by Paul Ezzy. Marshall is a character I never thought would stick around. I expected a few cute, and hopefully hilarious, scenes and then he would disappear and we could focus back on the family. Instead, Tobin chose to develop his guy and his relationship with Reagan's Gabrielle. Ezzy is charming, though forgettable in this role, which ironically works. His blaséness works because he is often compared to Christian, played with sophistication and flamboyancy by Patrick Massey, by both Gabrielle and the audience. Ezzy, Massey, and Reagan's best scene is in the movie theatre. It's dynamic, purposeful, and therefore, hilarious. Something about the collision of their distinct personalities in a tight, mostly silent atmosphere just worked for me. Massey is adorable and interesting as a figment of Reagan's imagination. I think Tobin hit it just right with Massey's stage-time and overall purpose. Though I felt he never clicked in the arc with d'Angelo and Elliott, an equally dynamic storyline, Massey developed his character so beautifully that I forgot about the other storylines when he was onstage.
That said, I think Tobin could use a few more workshops. He seems to have wildly divergent storylines. Additionally, Emilia Allen's direction seems to stifle Tobin's work in numerous and painfully long blackouts. Every time I would get comfortable in a scene, I'd almost immediately be diverted out by another blackout and scene change. Frequently the sets would fluctuate between the same two locations, creating unnecessary stage movement of blocks and bedding. While Tobin's script creates nice "buttons" to the end of the scenes with a pointed line of dialogue or funny action, the scenes almost worked better for television than for the stage. I struggled to keep my focus, and I could tell the actors struggled to keep the energy high, despite the time in between the scenes. I don't know whether this was the writer's storytelling or the director's concept but the set changes really didn't work for me. Finally, the play had a little too much fluff and not enough heart. What started out as a unique story to tell quickly turned into the expected and predictable relationships. Massey's character is the only one who kept me wondering and questioning and guessing. While his character was important, I think Massey's charming stage presence carried the role far more than the writing originally intended. For better or for worse, he overshadowed Reagan.
I have to admit the show was just not my style; my friend thoroughly enjoyed the production, while admitting that he didn't have to think much and he enjoyed it for its simplicity. I guess I expected more and I know, given some of the strong moments between characters, that the show has much more potential. While I can't decide whether it was lackluster directing or struggling writing, the show didn't rise to my expectations. I look forward to future drafts because of how strong Massey and Elliot's characters were, and the strong premise in the show.
Written by: Brian Balduzzi
Published: Sunday, 2012/04/22 - 21:09


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Illinois ECE students awarded ...
Illinois ECE students awarded prestigious IEEE-SSCS Predoctoral Achievement Awards
Allie Arp, CSL
At the flagship conference for the IEEE Solid-State Circuits Society (SSCS) this week, 20 graduate students from universities all over the world received a Predoctoral Achievement Award. Two Illinois ECE graduate students were both honored for their academic record and promise, the quality of their publications, and their graduate study program matching the goals of the society.
Sujan Gonugondla and Karim Megawer both had their papers published at the two previous IEEE-SSCS Conference, an accomplishment in itself.
"For circuit PhD students the Predoctoral Achievement Award is the highest award you can get from SSCS," said Megawer. "It indicated good quality research and publications. Not many people get this recognition and it's a great honor."
Sujan Gonugondla (left) and Karim Megawer with their Predoctoral Achievement Awards. (Photo cred: CSL)
Sujan Gonugondla
Gonugondla, advised by Illinois ECE Professor Naresh R Shanbhag, researches on making machine learning systems for edge devices. The issue with the current day approach is that the data collected in Edge devices are transmitted to the Cloud for processing using machine learning algorithms. This approach results in substantial energy and delay costs and raises privacy concerns. Gonugondla's research focusses on building energy-efficient integrated circuits for machine learning to enable these Edge devices to analyze the data in-situ, i.e., without transmitting the data outside the device.
"The significance of Sujan's work was that it demonstrated the effectiveness of on-chip training in pushing the limits of energy efficiency of deep in-memory architectures when realizing machine learning workloads," said Shanbhag, Jack S. Kilby Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering. "His integrated circuit prototype demonstrated up to a 100X reduction in the energy-delay product of decision-making over an equivalent von Neumann digital architecture in the lab. This is a phenomenal accomplishment and was highlighted via articles in IEEE Spectrum and EE Times. Therefore, Sujan fully deserves receiving this Predoctoral Achievement Award."
When asked what makes his research stand out from the other applicants, Gonugondla thinks working on algorithmic solutions to make efficient systems, rather than circuit design only, helped set him apart.
"I tried to bring a unique approach to this problem, where we focused on the system as a whole instead of looking at it as only a circuit design problem," said Gonugondla. "Our approach includes solutions from algorithmic and architectural perspective, which is definitely different from other groups. This is the approach we take in Professor Shanbhag's lab where we don't look at the integrated circuit as an independent entity but as a hardware-software stack that needs to be optimized and made efficient."
Karim Megawer
Advised by Illinois ECE Professor Pavan Kumar Hanumolu, Megawer's research focus is on ultra-low noise clock generation. He is taking a holistic view of the entire clocking system to improve noise and/or energy efficiency by an order of magnitude. Specifically, he is focused on implementing frequency multiplying and fast start-up crystal oscillators. As part of his work, Megawer invented a novel crystal oscillator frequency quadrupler and demonstrated the effectiveness of his approach with measured results obtained from a prototype integrated circuit. He also developed a novel method to reduce the start-up time of crystal oscillators using a robust two-step injection technique. This novel technique achieves more than 30× improvement in startup time and reduced the startup time to within 1.5× of the theoretical minimum.
"While crystal oscillators are at the heart of all electronic systems they operate at low frequencies, are bulky, and are very difficult to turn-on quickly. As a result, they often become a bottleneck in improving system performance," said Hanumolu, Intel Alumni Scholar in Electrical and Computer Engineering. "Karim's work addressed some of the longest-standing drawbacks and demonstrated that it is possible to architect crystal oscillators to not only generate low-noise high frequency clocks but also to turn them on and off rapidly. I believe his work will have a meaningful and lasting impact on future commercial products."
Megawer believes his previous publications are what set him apart from other applicants. These include two first author papers at the International Solid States Circuits Conference (ISSCC) conference, two presentations selected as the best-in-session during this conference, and the invitations he received to submit his papers to the Journal of Solid-State Circuits.
"Since this is the most prestigious conference in circuits the award depends on academic record and quality of research," said Megawer. "I felt I had a quality application with my first-author ISSCC publications and strong recommendation letters from Professor Hanumolu and three industry collaborators."
Check out the original article on the CSL site.


·In order to bring down the temperature use wet cloth / pour water on the victim's head. ·Give the person ORS (Oral Rehydration Solution) to drink or lemon water/sarbat/torani/lassi or whatever is useful to rehydrate the body. ·Take the person immediately to the nearest health centre. ·If consistently experiencing high body temperature, throbbing headache, dizziness, weakness, nausea or disorientation in the summer, call 108/ambulance.
Are you prepared for Heat Wave?
Eat light, eat right: Eat freshly home cooked, less on oil food. Add more vegetables and fruits. Stay away from tea, coffee and alcohol. Don't forget to drink sufficient water and other fluids such as nimbupani, torani, lassi to keep yourself hydrated.
Make a kitchen garden: On the roof or your backyard - to cool down the surroundings besides bringing you home-grown veggies. Try to plant creepers; the exteriors of your walls could breathe a sigh of relief.
Create a vertical garden: They are a visual treat, they bring down pollution and they also bring down the heat levels. Go for as many as you can.
Heat wave is a period of abnormally high temperatures, more than the normal maximum temperature that occurs during the pre-monsoon summer season. The extreme temperatures and resultant atmospheric conditions adversely affect people living in regions reeling under heat wave conditions as they may cause dehydration, heat exhaustion, physiological stress and sometimes even death.
2,040 persons – that's the number of lives claimed by the heat wave in India in 2015. The number was higher than deaths caused by any other disaster. Cut to 2018 heat wave – the number stands at just 25. That is a decline of more than 98 per cent in three years' time. It definitely is a success story.
The Indian Ocean Region is sometimes called the "World's Hazard Belt" as eight out of ten disasters in the world occur here, making nearly one-third of the world's population vulnerable.
In 2018, Indonesia suffered tsunamis and earthquakes, Madagascar faced severe droughts, India saw floods and landslides in India besides seasonal cyclones in the Islands of the Indian Ocean, and many more calamities. The loss of lives, as well as the damage to property and the natural environment, is incalculable. More so as the IORA is home to small island nation states and developing littoral countries with high population densities, which are hit much harder due to the lack of resources and assets to handle a calamity.


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You wish to reschedule your appointment with less than 5 days notice.
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Went to a great lecture by Oscar winning composer Jan A.P. Kaczmarek. Ask my composer friend Lee Miller who did the music for Circumference and I'm sure he'll tell you how poor my musical communication is. In fact I often swan about the place confessing to not even liking music - which always causes a scene.
Jan had been working with 3 new composers (including Titas, a graduate from Bournemouth)over here with an experiment. They had to rescore a scene from Finding Neverland that Jan did the score for originally. All 3 were so different and changed the mood so much I think I need to rethink my approach.
The good news is that ALL the composers believe that an indepth knowledge of music is not needed. Just a willingness to work together. And they were all intrigued by the method I used on WaterMelon where Dave Purse composed the score before the film.
So I'm in the right direction - just need to do it a bit more.
I have an idea for a 30 minute pilot that takes place in real time in a public toilet. Ok, not all of it, some of it takes place in the public area just in front of the Lady's/Men's room doors so there's some interaction betweem the sexes and maybe I'll throw in a little girl-on-girl action to spice it up.
The 1st episode has to do with a terrorist time bomb that's going to go off in...well, 30 minutes.
What you say is true! In fact, limited musical knowledge can seriously damage your score. What is the most useful is a very good "EQ" - composers work with emotion so the better you can describe what you want your audience to feel in a certain scene to be underscored, the better your music will be. In fact, music is so magical and so powerful you can change your story with it, which is why directors tend to be afraid of working with new composers (and with good reason - it really is the most powerful emotional element and can in fact change your story line!). My music is currently used in more than 200 films and 1,800 TV episodes. (FYI: I've been composing music since the age of 5 and have a current catalog of well over 3,000 copyrights. I've never written anything I wasn't paid for-even those early pieces; they've all been used in films and TV projects!


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US Week in Review – April 30, 2018
Center for Civilians in Conflict (CIVIC) shares regular updates about the work of our global programs. Our US program, helmed by US Program Director, Daniel R. Mahanty, with support from Research & Advocacy Associate, Julie Snyder, works with US institutions to protect civilians trapped in conflict around the world. This weekly overview of the US Program is authored by CIVIC consultant, Lyndsey Martin.
US MILITARY OPERATIONS: IRAQ, SYRIA, AFGHANISTAN
In the New York Times, Ryan Goodman writes that there is a "fundamental flaw in the way the United States counts civilian casualties that surely deflates the total numbers." When deciding just whether to open an investigation into a potential case of civilian casualties, the Pentagon currently uses a "more likely than not" standard, which Goodman argues will miss many cases in which civilians were killed. In a separate piece in Just Security, Goodman identifies the legal implications of such a high standard for investigating civilian casualties.
Fifteen civilians were killed in Coalition strikes in March 2018 – a 86 percent decrease from February's estimates, according to Airwars' monthly assessment. All of the civilian deaths were recorded in Syria, as Airwars has not claimed a civilian casualty event in Iraq since February 7. The number of weapons released by the Coalition also fell to 294 munitions across Iraq and Syria from 747 munitions dropped in February.
The Coalition carried out twenty-six strikes across Iraq and Syria between April 20 and 26.
In Afghanistan, the United States dropped more weapons during the first quarter of 2018 than it has during the same period in any of the last fifteen years. The US released 1,186 munitions in Afghanistan during the first three months of 2018, surpassing the 1,083 munitions released at the height of the war in 2011. Yet, there's little indication the increase in airstrikes is helping to end the conflict.
MOST RECENT OIR CIVCAS REPORT (April 26): In the month of March, CJTF-OIR carried over 524 open reports of possible civilian casualties from previous months and received one new report resulting from Coalition strikes (artillery or air) in support of partner force operations to defeat Daesh in Iraq and Syria. During this period, the Coalition completed the assessment of 49: 46 were assessed to be non-credible, none were assessed to be duplicates of previous reports, and three were assessed to be credible, resulting in 28 unintentional civilian deaths. To date, based on information available, CJTF-OIR assesses at least 883 civilians have been unintentionally killed by Coalition strikes since the start of Operation Inherent Resolve. A total of 476 reports are still open.
The Coalition conducted a total of 29,254 strikes between August 2014 and end of March 2018. During this period, the total number of reports of possible civilian casualties was 2,135. The total number of credible reports of civilian casualties during this time period was 227.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Photos reveal that a US produced bomb was used to target a wedding in Yemen, where at least 33 died, including the bride. The US must stop its role in the destruction of Yemen. #YemenCantWait https://t.co/HZN09Mo09a pic.twitter.com/jG6L6ujkQx
— Win Without War (@WinWithoutWar) April 28, 2018
May 1: American Red Cross International Services – Far from the Media's Spotlight: Global Humanitarian Crises Outside the Public Eye
May 1: New America – Iraq After ISIS: What to Do Now
May 7: Wilson Center – The Future of War and Challenges for Humanitarians
May 7: Center for Strategic and International Studies – The Impact of De-risking on Nonprofit Organizations and Their Beneficiaries in Conflict Areas
May 9: Brookings Institution – What's Next for Yemen's Tragic War?
May 10: Stimson Center & the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute – Dealing in Defense: Examining Trends in Global Arms Sales and World Military Expenditures
May 18: Center for Strategic and International Studies – The Future of Force
May 22: Stimson Center & CIVIC – Taking Aim: A Closer Look at the Global Arms Trade
Bureau of Investigative Journalism (Total Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen)
Civilians Killed: 738 – 1,569
Children Killed: 242 – 337
Total Killed: 7,497 – 10,858
Minimum Confirmed Strikes: 4,788
Airwars (Total Iraq and Syria)
Minimum Civilians Killed: 6,259
Coalition Strikes: 29,279
Bombs & Missiles Dropped: 107,129
Senators Move to Block Turkish Arms Transfer: A bipartisan bill has been introduced in the Senate by Senators James Lankford (R-OK), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) to prevent the transfer of 116 F-35 Lightning II fighters to Turkey. While this particular legislation intended to punish Turkey's imprisonment of American pastor Andrew Brunson, human rights advocates might be interested in any legislation to mitigate Turkey's access to lethal weapons. Human Rights Watch released a report in late February describing three Turkish attacks on civilian encampments in January that resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, among which 17 were children. These findings are concerning, and lawmakers should take it upon themselves to find policy avenues for incentivizing Turkish officials to consider civilian lives more seriously.
Legislation to prevent the sale of F-35s was also considered last July following violence against protesters by Turkish President Erdogan's bodyguards during a White House Visit. The previous bill, introduced by Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI), was proposed as an amendment to the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act, but was unsuccessful. This new legislation may stand a better chance of success. The majority of its sponsors are Republicans, making it more likely to fare well than past bills introduced by the Democratic minority. Lawmakers may also feel more eager to act in protest to Mr. Brunson's incarceration. Finally, the legislation spans both Turkey's domestic human rights conditions and its application of force abroad, so a broad coalition of lawmakers can be built around this issue.
ON THE CONGRESSIONAL AGENDA:
Congress is out of session for the week of April 30th to May 4th.
DRONE WARFARE AND TARGETED KILLINGS
Since taking office in January 2017, President Trump has increased the use of drones and special operations forces to conduct counterterrorism raids while decreasing transparency around those operations. Luke Hartig writes in Just Security that the administration has an opportunity to increase transparency over US counterterrorism operations when, on May 1, it is required to release a report providing the total number of counterterrorism strikes outside areas of active hostilities conducted in 2017 and assessments of the resulting combatant and civilian deaths.
Nineteen NGOs issued a joint statement urging European states to refrain from assisting in US drone strikes. The statement comes after Amnesty International issued a report last week saying European states that provide assistance to US drone operations could be responsible for assisting drone strikes in violation of international law.
SECURITY ASSISTANCE AND ARMS SALES
The State Department approved three potential arms sales this week:
12 AH-1Z attack helicopters to Bahrain for an estimated cost of $911.4 million
3,500 M1156 Precision Guided Kits to the Netherlands, worth an estimated $70 million
Defense articles and services to support the Netherlands Royal Air Force F-16 Formal Training Unit, worth an estimated $110 million
Rachel Stohl writes in Just Security that while the Trump administration's new policies on conventional arms transfer prioritize perceived economic gains, they risk undermining American values, as well as long-term foreign policy and security interests.
An airstrike carried out by the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen last week hit a wedding in Hajjah governorate, killing at least thirty-three people and wounding more than fifty others. The following day, local media published a photograph of weapon remnants from the strike. Analysis by Bellingcat found that the remains of the wing assembly shown in the photograph was an American-made GBU-12 Paveway II guided bomb manufactured by Raytheon.
American guns sold to Mexico have been used by Mexican security forces that have reportedly committed gross human rights abuses or colluded with criminal groups, according to a report by The Intercept.
Read CIVIC's new policy brief with the Center for Strategic and International Studies on civilian protection and security partnerships here.
Just Security: Rachel Kleinfeld warns against the increasing politicization of American security institutions.
Time: Izumi Nakamitsu addresses our "global arms addiction" and asks whether massive military spending actually makes us safer. She writes that to truly enhance security, we should focus on education, healthcare, protecting the environment, and fighting poverty.
Image courtesy of U.S. Army photo by Spc. Christopher Brecht
US Week in Review – April 15
US Week in Review – April 8
By Daniel R. Mahanty April 30, 2018
Author: Daniel R. Mahanty
Dan is Senior Advisor for CIVIC's US Program, where he engages US policymakers to promote the adoption of policies and practices that enhance the protection of civilians in conflict. Prior to CIVIC, Dan spent 16 years at the U.S. Department of State and in 2012, he created and led the Office of Security and Human Rights in the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor.
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Roster signs are perfect for all your roadside advertising!
They are very economical, yet reasonably long lasting and effective at grabbing attention.
DDP can generally have your signs ready the very next day!


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Amazon flips out with better book browsing in new Paperwhite
September 4, 2013 by Roger Packer
Amazon is aiming to improve book browsing in its new version of the Kindle Paperwhite with a Page Flip function and is also building Goodreads into the device.
Flipping heck: New Kindle Paperwhite offers an easier way to browse through a book.
Kindle Page Flip allows readers to skim page by page, scan by chapter or skip to the end of your book without losing your place. Amazon gives an example of being able to quickly flip back and forth to that map of Beyond the Wall in A Dance With Dragons.
Some of the features of the new Paperwhite, which will be available from early October, include:
New display technology with higher contrast.
Next-generation built-in light.
New, 25% faster processor—Books open faster and pages turn faster.
New touch technology.
Goodreads integration
New Kindle FreeTime—Built-in parental controls have been extended to give parents a simple, engaging way to encourage kids to spend more time reading. Hand-select books for your kids to read, and hand out achievement badges when they hit reading milestones. A progress report keeps parents updated on total time spent reading, number of words looked up, badges earned and books finished.
New Vocabulary Builder—Compiles words you look up in the dictionary into an easy-to-access list. Use these lists to quiz yourself with flashcards and instantly see words in context.
New Smart Lookup—Integrates a full dictionary definition with other reference information about a word, character, topic or book via X-Ray and Wikipedia. For example, using an ordinary dictionary to look up "credit default swaps" in Michael Lewis' The Big Short would give the individual definitions of "credit," "default" and "swaps." Smart Lookup recognizes this is an important topic and phrase in the book, and gives you the correct definition of "credit default swaps" via X-Ray
New In-line Footnotes—With a single tap, read the complete text of each footnote in-line without changing the page or losing your place in the book.
Amazon has also set out a new MatchBook service which will enable people who have bought a print book from Amazon since 1995 to get a Kindle edition of the book for $2.99 or less if the book's publisher enrols for the scheme.
The company says Kindle owners read four times as many books—print and ebooks—as they did before owning a Kindle.
The Goodreads integration and FreeTime feature will be delivered later this year as part of a software update.
Self-published novels make up a third of best-seller list
If you've got that feeling of being alone in the woods then may your goya be with you


Looking to introduce your child to an adventure sport? Or looking for an off-beat location for a family vacation?
This trek through Binsar wildlife sanctuary in Kumaon in Uttarakhand is a wonderful option. While it is a simple one that any reasonably-fit person can undertake, it lets one experience local culture and learn about the flora and fauna of the lower Himalayas besides enjoying breathtaking views of snow-clad mountains.
Tucked away in a remote corner of Kumaon, picturesque Sarayu Valley is bestowed with commanding views of the Himalayan giants, a gushing river, alpine meadows and virgin forests. On this trip you will stay in a quaint homestay in Sarayu Valley, go on short hikes in the neighbourhood, and trek to an alpine meadow with spectacular views. You will also stay at a couple of charming places en route to Sarayu Valley.
A trip to the last Shangri-la is a must on any serious travel buff's bucket list. On this 7 day/6 night trip discover Gross Personal Happiness! Visit some popular sights, learn about a unique Buddhist culture and go on short hikes to fascinating monasteries.
Awe-inspiring bio-engineering of living roots bridges and machans, stunning vistas and waterfalls, alluring bio-diversity, adventure, warm people and their unique culture and more. In this meticulously curated trip one gets to see a few popular sights, trek through quaint, off-beat locations and also indulge in some adventure activities.
A unique program meant for hikers who are also Yoga enthusiasts! Stay in tranquil village homestays in Dzongu in North Sikkim. Participate in guided yoga sessions in serene settings in the morning and go on short hikes in vicinity to explore the region in the afternoons. Gain insight into Lepcha culture while in Dzongu, the only Lepcha reserve in the country. For those looking for a tough trek – an optional extension to the program is a 2-day hike to a secluded monastery is possible.
Quintessential seaside villages, verdant hillsides, innumerable waterfalls and pristine beaches is what the real Goa is all about! Spend two days at an idyllic homestay in a village in the hills. Treks to various unexplored waterfalls and view points and enjoy learning about the secret life of the flora and fauna. Spend one day at a pristine beach place before heading out.
A trip to the last Shangri-la is a must on any serious travel buff's bucket list. Visit the important sights in Thimphu and Paro, including the jaw-dropping Tiger's Nest. VIsot the old capital, Punakha to see the impressive dzong there. Also visit Gangtey in Phobjika valley for a bit of rural immersion.
This relatively-unexplored destination in Kerala abounds with natural beauty and has clement weather for a good part of the year. Apart from trekking there are ample opportunities for adventure sports such as biking and ziplining.


After about a minute, images of the container's contents pop up on a nearby TV screen, complete with a color-coded identification of the objects based on how they interact with naturally occurring subatomic particles.
It's not a pretty picture. There's ammunition, firearms, TNT, alcohol and currency inside. If shielded nuclear material were in the container, the company's technology would identify it, too, said Chief Executive Dwight Johnson.
Last week, Decision Sciences said it received a contract with the Singapore Ministry of Home Affairs to install one of its next-generation cargo scanning systems at its main port.
Though a pilot project, Decision Sciences is betting it will lead to further deployments of its technology, which is licensed from the Los Alamos National Laboratory and has been refined for more than a decade.


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Interior designers reveal the biggest mistakes people make when they decorate their homes
0 0 Tuesday, October 2, 2018 Edit this post
By Talia Lakritz, INSIDER
Shop wisely.
The INSIDER Summary:
INSIDER spoke to three interior designers to find out what people are doing wrong when they decorate their homes.
People often buy rugs that are the wrong size and orient them the wrong way.
Open storage leaves clutter out in the open for everyone to see.
If furniture matches too well, your house looks like a showroom.
A room without enough lighting or accessories lacks personality.
Interior designers have an eye for colors, patterns, and textures, as well as a great sense of how furniture works in a space. They can tell when something is off, whether it's the orientation of a rug or the amount of light in a room. They also know plenty of ways to make a space better that others might not notice or think of.
INSIDER asked three interior designers about the most common mistakes they see people make when decorating their homes. Here's what they had to say.
Mistake #1: Rugs that are the wrong size or orientation
The rug should be big enough to hold all of the furniture.
In a common area like a living room, a rug should be wider than the width of your furniture so that it serves as a base. In a bedroom, it should be perpendicular to the bed.
"It should be hitting your bed like a 'T' but they'll run it the long way of the bed, instead, so that it's not underneath the nightstand and it looks kind of funny," Caitlin Murray of Black Lacquer Design told INSIDER.
Mistake #2: Exposed clutter
Hide clutter with covered storage.
"If you're going to have open storage, like shelves or nightstands that have an open base, it's really, really important to consider what you're going to be putting on that, because that becomes your design," said Murray.
Make sure you're including a variety of neatly-organized accessories and pay attention to color groupings. You want an artful, eclectic mix of items, not a chaotic mess.
Mistake #3: Buying furniture that matches too well
There is such a thing as matching too well.
You don't want your home to look like a furniture showroom. A collected look adds personality.
"For example, I wouldn't buy matching a bed frame with matching end tables because it'll just make your room look like a catalogue," interior designer Max Humphrey told INSIDER. "The best rooms are ones that look like they've been collected over time."
Mistake #4: Not enough lighting
Sometimes you need more than an overhead light.
Extra lighting doesn't just make it easier to see — it also helps a space feel more dynamic.
"Sometimes people will have overhead lighting and they think that's enough, but I like to layer lighting," interior designer Holly Hickey Moore told INSIDER. "Have ambient lighting from your floor lamps and table lamps."
Mistake #5: No accessories
It's the little styling touches that make a space look and feel complete. Don't underestimate how important they are.
"It's always nice to have a budget made and leave some money for art and accessories," Moore said. "Those are just as important as the big pieces of furniture, the rugs, the TV, or whatever it is you want in your space."
See more at: INSIDER
dearJulius.com: Interior designers reveal the biggest mistakes people make when they decorate their homes
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https://www.dearjulius.com/2018/10/interior-designers-reveal-biggest.html


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my thoughts and observations over the last nine years.
just fine for any other kind of firing.
bouncing all over with joy!
And that's my diatribe on elements. Feh!
over, 10 minutes to drop temps, and 2 hours to soak.
electric and gas firing crystalline?
achieving a copper red effect when firing crystalline.
> thing in my gas kiln.
> electric and gas firing crystalline?
> achieving a copper red effect when firing crystalline.
could possibly melt out again and cover the piece.
But it always does. Very amazing.
Either will do. I haven't tried soaking in reduction.
given the discussion on losing zinc in reduction.
success holding reduction anywhere from 15min-45min.
has cooled to 1500F and then let it cool naturally.
these "successfull" pieces to 1500F in the gas kiln and reduce at 1500F.
My apologies if this was already mentioned. I don't have much time to read lately but figure this may be of interest.
There is an article on this subject. What you can extrapolate from it is when to do the reduction which is what I recal matters since reduction inhibits crystalline growth, I suspect timing is everything.
This article describes how the author developed a procedure to produce reduced crystalline glazes in an electric kiln. Crystalline glaze bases used for this type of firing are supplied.


Western Red Cedar is a multi-faceted wood of exceptional beauty. In its natural, unfinished state, it has a richly textured, tactile grain combined with a palette of warm, mellow tones ranging from light amber to deep honey brown. No man-made material can duplicate the depth of cedar's natural luster. It also remains subtly aromatic, and the characteristic fragrance of cedar adds another dimension to its universal appeal.
Whether used in wall paneling or ceilings, doors or windows, mouldings, railings, or posts or beams, the presence and prestige of cedar enhances structures of any type or design, contemporary or traditional, homs, offices, stores or public buildings. As a matter of fact, one can consider Western Red Cedar for just about any design situation. Western Red Cedar contains natural oils that act as preservatives to help the wood resist insect attack and decay. Cedar is also a dimensionally stable wood that lies flat and stays straight. Properly finished and maintained, Western Red Cedar ages gracefully and endures for many years. Cedar is the preferred material for all outdoor applications that seek visual harmony with the landscape combined with stability and durability: from siding and patio decking to fences, planters, screens, shelters and garden furniture. Indoors, cedar's dimensional stability makes it perfectly suited to a variety of uses in high moisture areas such as kitchens, bathrooms and saunas. Beauty aside, the purely practical, dollars-and-cents value of cedar offers other benefits: the wood's cellular structure creates interior air spaces that give it an insulation value higher than most woods and much higher than brick or concrete. Buildings which feature cedar paneling, ceilings or siding tend to stay cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter. Cedar also has excellent sound suppression and absorption qualities.