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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not takin
System Posts: 8,489
June 2019 edited June 2019 in General
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not taking seat predictors too seriously in times of change
Obviously, you should not treat opinion polls very seriously at all, especially when no general election is on hand. Respondents are being asked an artificial question (there is no general election tomorrow) with no real-world consequences hanging on their answer.
Thanks for the header, Alastair.
DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
Is not a more fundamental question the extent to which the European elections were treated by voters as a de facto referendum on Brexit? It is by no means clear that this would apply to a general election. The picture at the top reminds us that in the 2015 and 2017 elections, the latter ostensibly called on the issue of Brexit, Ukip was wiped out and the LibDems nearly so.
JackW Posts: 14,787
Third like .... Er .... who knows !!!
Complacency is the Conservative USP. It's what they do. It's their thing.
You cannot be a Tory without being complacent.
#RuthForFM
/kəmˈpleɪs(ə)nt/
showing smug or uncritical satisfaction with oneself or one's achievements.
synonyms: Smug, self-satisfied, pleased with oneself, proud of oneself, self-approving, self-congratulatory, self-admiring, self-regarding
JackW said:
..if ElectoralCalculus is to be believed. If you pump these new numbers into Baxter you end up with just SNP and LIb Dem MPs in Scotland. No other party wins a single seat.
StuartDickson said:
Ha ha .... However I think CHUK Lite will probably not be third. Probably ....
Nigelb Posts: 35,015
DecrepitJohnL said:
No, it's essentially the same question. To which no one right now has a clue as to the answer.
Alastair's duck race in a whirlpool sums it up nicely. Whirlpools can persist for some time, or dissipate rapidly.
Am I alone in being seriously annoyed with the BBC reporting of the Trump visit ?
The deferential cringe I can understand, as a more or less unavoidable consequence of their 'impartiality' remit.
That it should lead every report and get continuous banner headlines over a number of days for, what is essentially a ceremonial bit of international flattery, is less justifiable.
Sean_F Posts: 30,236
This is a good article. An election along these lines might even test John Curtice.
Nigelb said:
Consider yourself lucky it was only three days. You've just described several decades of political coverage by BBC Scotland News: deferential cringing. Leading every report and getting continuous banner headlines. #LabConsRool
SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
like him or loathe him, Trump is news. At least he got it right about Sadiq Khan..
SquareRoot said:
I didn't argue he shouldn't be reported. Just that the coverage is out of all proportion to the visit's significance.
And two pillocks having a spat is not news.
In todays world it is news.. live with it. it isn't going to change, in fact the more petty it is, the more likely it is to be reported.
AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
I must thank @AndyJS for supplying me with the information about the Conservative constituency vote shares, as mentioned in this article.
….and its taken Brexit off the headlines for a while.. thank God for that.
Adamnán of Iona wrote of the Corryvreckan in the 7th century. Brexit more resembles a permanent geographical feature like the "Cauldron of the speckled seas" than a toddler's passing bathtime preoccupation.
kjohnw Posts: 1,456
Trump backtracks on NHS comments on good morning Britain this morning according to SKY.
NHS is no longer part of trade deal
It is a different question, is it not? One is, will voters treat the next election as normal or as Brexit-dominated; in other words, will they vote Lab/Con as normal or LD/TBP for or against Brexit? The other question, which the header addresses, is what will be the consequences for Westminster in the latter case?
RobinWiggs Posts: 621
Sean_F said:
Oh, I think he be safe sticking with the usual "It's been a terrrrrible night for the Tories".
Or is that the other one?
kjohnw said:
Consistency not part of the Donalds belief system.
Can he be trusted in any negotiations when he tears up agreements on a whim?
not_on_fire Posts: 4,217
They've agreed a sale price now?
Casino_Royale Posts: 43,979
Good article.
Unsaid, but crucial: the candidates both Labour and the Conservatives choose for putative next Prime Minister.
When General Election Day is upon you, and pencils are sharpened, that's often what most floating voters have in their minds when they cast their votes.
If the next election is seen as Brexit-dominated, this might hurt Labour less than the Conservatives because both of the Brexit-issue parties, LibDem and TBP, are seen as right wing -- TBP because of Farage, Widdecombe and Ukip, and the LibDems because they were in coalition with the blue team less than a decade before the next election, be it in 2022 or this coming October.
It will therefore be easier for Conservative supporters to jump ship on Brexit, whether for or against.
So though AW's OP takes issue with the seat predictions, they might get the right result even if for the wrong reasons. Labour to be the largest single party, although I'd go further and suggest a Labour majority might be on the cards.
dr_spyn Posts: 11,125
America's President who was a womanising war monger and serial drug abuser visits London was warmly greeted by The PM, press and people.
The fake news was that a clean cut, war hero with a beautiful wife was beyond reproach. JFK's mythology wiped out the difficult bitss.
... will voters treat the next election as normal or as Brexit-dominated?
The next 20 general elections in England are going to be Brexit-dominated. Irrespective if you Revoke, Deal or No Deal. Nothing and no one can now hinder that. England has made her bed, and she must now lie in it. Fortunately the other members of the Union have a choice whether they want to share the distinctively unsatisfying position. We are not in the mood for bending over.
dr_spyn said:
The fake news was that a clean cut, war hero with a beautiful wife was beyond reproach. JFK's mythology wiped out the difficult bits.
Indeed. Sucking up to unpleasant creeps is a bit of a BBC forté.
Except that is the Labour leadership line that is most out of line with membership feeling on Brexit.
That is why Labour did so badly in the Locals and Euros. It is very complacent of Labour to expect these voters to return. There are good alternatives to Lab in most parts of the country. Lab should hold about 150 seats in the inner cities even on a grossly reduced share, but is no where near the gains needed to form a majority government.
Morris_Dancer Posts: 57,690
Good morning, everyone.
Boris' odds back down to 1.72 on Ladbrokes.
Here's one widely-bruited Brexit theory shot down in flames:
https://twitter.com/proftimbale/status/1135875064447066112?s=21
Morris_Dancer said:
Ruthie better get back on the blower.
The effects of Brexit probably will dominate the next few elections, and not necessarily to the advantage of the Conservatives. If it does go pear-shaped, the Tories will have taken us out of the EU against its own advice. That is the crucial part: against its own advice. A government which gave us the Project Fear warnings will in the end have disregarded them in order to leave the EU. On the other hand, if JRM is right and we are hundreds of billions better off, then there will be a brief honeymoon then back to politics as normal.
What all that means for Scotland, I am not sure. It might well break from the UK and later rejoin the EU. But an independent Scotland, like an independent UK, will still trade mainly with its largest neighbour and will be a rule taker rather than a rule maker. Whether that will improve the lives of individual Scots, and by what mechanism, is less certain.
SouthamObserver Posts: 36,015
The Euro elections gave a strong read on the percentage of the electorate for which Brexit is likely to be a very big deal. Basically, it's over half of any likely GE turnout. But that still leaves millions of votes up for grabs based on other issues. This is why I think the Brexit party is likely to drain a substantial portion of its vote percentage in a GE.
That is the point. There are not good alternatives to Labour. The LibDems and TBP are seen as right wing. There is also the point that in any case, Labour supporters tend to be less exercised by Brexit in the first place.
Now it might be that voters desert Labour over Jeremy Corbyn's plan to nationalise people's gardens or whatever else the papers make of what so far is only a report and not policy, but not, I think, over Brexit.
AlastairMeeks said:
Identifiers in order of popularity:
1. England/Scotland/Wales
3. your local area
5. your nearest city
6. the western world
7. the global community
8. the Commonwealth (ouch!)
Perhaps the sun really did set on the British Empire? We must have been preoccupied with something else and didn't even notice. Ta Dave.
JFK's electioneering also got us damned near to nuclear oblivion. He was an incredibly poor president.
We clearly interpret the massive swing of Labour voters to Lib Dems, Greens and even CHUK in the Euros differently! It is also a swing that we saw in the Locals and see now in GE polling.
YBarddCwsc Posts: 6,119
SouthamObserver said:
The Brexit Party also have to find 650 Parliamentary candidates who can appear normal and not say something obviously stupid, incendiary, racist or misogynistic during the course of an electoral campaign.
I am not too worried about the Brexit Party gaining many seats.
I have just turned 55 and I think Boris Johnson will be the last Tory PM of my lifetime. I also think I'll die a citizen of England, not of the UK. But the good news is that I think our trading relationship with the Faeroe Islands will be better than it has been since the 12th century.
That IpsosMori has some other interesting results:
https://twitter.com/CameronGarrett_/status/1135847762065596417?s=19
https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1135848910772195329?s=19
FF43 Posts: 13,107
I wouldn't assume the Conservatives will be damaged as much as they deserve to be for the Brexit disaster. Iceland is an example here. The Independent Party were almost entirely responsible for the banking crisis and economic crash. They briefly allowed the Socialists to take the blame for sorting out the mess and came back reascendant.
franklyn Posts: 242
I hope that on the anniversary of D-Day we can all, on this site, put aside our petty and parochial differences and reflect on the selfless sacrifice of those who died in Normandy, and the freedom from tyranny that they achieved. Perhaps we should also reflect on those political giants, Churchill and Roosevelt and compare them to the pygmies who lead us now. Finally we should think of the fact that we have had the longest period of peace in Western Europe for a thousand years. We are the first for centuries who have not had to experience the horrors of war.
Rest in peace all those who fell; you did not die in vain.
The interesting finding in that survey is that Remainers DON'T associate more with the Western and global worlds. The EU is both a globalist and a protectionist construct. It looks like Remainers are more attracted by the protectionist element.
The one thing we know for certain about a trade deal with the US is that it will only happen on terms set by the US. In that way, it's exactly the same as any trade deal that will be done with the EU, China and any other major economic power. We need them more than they need us. None of this is a surprise. The choice for Johnson will be a series of no deals or doing as he's told. Either way, he's buggered - though I suspect he'd just about beat Corbyn in a general election, so it will be rolling humiliation over a period of time for him rather than a sudden one.
malcolmg Posts: 34,983
Exactly , we live it every day with the EBC regional sockpuppet team.
Theuniondivvie Posts: 30,762
The fawning will certainly aid Trump's delusion of his own family becoming American royalty.
It's just the sort of propagandist puffery one would expect from a state broadcaster. Of course the BBC isn't a state broadcaster, or so I'm constantly informed.
logical_song Posts: 9,018
YBarddCwsc said:
True, but they will also have to not said "something obviously stupid, incendiary, racist or misogynistic" at any time on their social media accounts. Which is much more difficult.
A complete about turn speech re Boris being great and her best pal will have been written weeks ago, we got phase one recently.
Shows the calibre of our Imperial Masters.......... this bozo wants to be PM
Here is Sajid Javid's newly-launched leadership website: https://www.teamsaj.com/
And here is its privacy policy, which appears to have been copied straight from Raab's: All processing is carried out either by consent or either under the legitimate interest of Dominic Raab MP"
(1/2) The fundamental issue arising from the lead is how" the UNS model worked in the first place. It was developed (or observed) at a time of two-party contests between a government and an opposition, with swings from former to latter.
Say the government was elected with 45% vote share to the opposition party's 40%, but is now unpopular and comes out of the election with 40% as the opposition takes power with 45% (the other 15% being various 'others' not in contention in most seats). And imagine three seats, Brokerland where the government last time won with 63% to the opposition's 25%, opposition-held Minetown with 27% to 58%, and marginal Suburbville won by the government with 45% to 43%.
The government is unpopular and nationally one in nine of its supporters have either switched to vote for the opposition, or stayed at home (or backed a minor party) and been replaced by a motivated opposition voter who abstained before.
The question is why - instead of one in nine deserting across the country, such that the outgoing government polls 56% in Brokerland, 40% in Suburbville, and 24% in Minetown - the actual result is better for the government in its stronghold at 58% and worse in the opposition stronghold dropping right down to 22%.
It can't be the campaigning, because both parties throw everything into Suburbville, cancelling each other out, with the voters of Brokerland and Minetown untroubled by calls at the door.
(2/2) AIR the research from the 50s-70s posited two theories. What I would call the "neighbour" theory suggested that, in Minetown, government supporters are in a minority and, as they go about their daily business, are forever meeting people moaning about the government (most of whom didn't vote for it in the first place). Whereas in Brokerland government voters still mostly encounter its loyalists. Similarly, in Brokerland voters rarely meet enthusiastic supporters of the opposition party, whereas in Minetown they are all around. The combined effect of these interactions is to magnify discontent with the government in areas where it is weak, and suppress it in areas of strength.
The second theory is of vested interest. Having been elected from seats like Brokerville, the government has looked after its supporters, but its policies have impacted less favourably on the citizens of Minetown. Thus when it comes to the election a greater proportion of government supporters in Minetown are unhappy.
This is all very credible - but the key point is that this logic applies solely to dissatisfaction with a sitting government. It also rests upon a generalised national discontent with a government, rather than unhappiness with one particular policy whose opponents are not evenly distributed (other than the vested interest dimension).
The model has no relevance to levels of support for a third party (other than in picking up former government voters), or voters switching between one third party and another, or between the opposition and third parties. Indeed when it comes to third parties, the entirely reasonable theory that people are influenced by the views of those around them directs towards the opposite of a UNS - that a third party surge should be magnified in its areas of existing strength. Which is of course what we generally see, both up and down (the LibDem collapse of 2015 was focused on its stronger seats; a UNS model would have required negative vote shares in some seats).
All of the above suggests that a UNS model should have almost no relevance to the current political situation. We use it because it's easy and lazy and enables vote-seat predictions to be made without hugely complex models full of questionable assumptions.
But I haven't, for quite some time, seen any research into whether the swings we have seen in 21st century elections are best reflected or even accurately modelled using UNS. Perhaps there's a PHD for someone waiting here?
Theuniondivvie said:
It's because the Royals are involved. The BBC is at is most paranoid of being accused of disloyalty and not discharging its remit properly by the persistent rightwing press whenever they are.
Cyclefree Posts: 21,190
We will be in a weaker position anyway. If we were to leave the EU with a WA and then get an FTA with them, there would be some goodwill: a country makes a decision and goes about implementing it in a grown up way and countries would know the terms of our trade with our nearest neighbour.
But leaving with no deal puts us in a very weak position vis a vis the EU and with all other states. There will be a desperation to get deals just to show that something has come out of Brexit. Far from being independent and sovereign we will be cringing and desperate and taken advantage of. It will be pathetic and humiliating.
But apparently a No Deal exit is what the people voted for.
franklyn said:
I have a long interest in history, including military history, and still see patients who are veterans. Just this week I saw an old fellow who spent his youth flying Dakotas to resupply in the Far East and an old lady who was a RAF cypher clerk.
Nonetheless, after the centenary of 1918 and this last D Day that veterans are likely to attend, and presumably the 75th anniversary of VE and VJ day next year, it is time to stop remembering and to look forward. A lot of this memoralising is getting very mawkish, and not very British.
Yesterday was instructive for anyone wanting to see how the Labour Party evolves from here.
According to the cancer-supporting members yesterday was a triumph. Rather than bend his life-long and always flawless principles by attending the state visit as invited, Jezbollah instead boycotted it and gave a foaming at the mouth rant to the protest crowd. Instead of commemorating our shared sacrifice in blood he chose to shat on it from the stage.
And in doing so the Corbynites cheered him on - its FANTASTIC that instead of acting like a Prime Minister in waiting he acted like a sad old man howling at the moon in self-righteous petulance. Its PERFECT that he stood up to the neo-liberal and boycotted. Once Corbyn leads Labour to the inevitable 704 seat majority in the next general election, all Corbyn has to do is address the protest rally outside 1,600 Pennsylvania Avenue he chose to organise rather than meet the President inside - address the rally and the neolibs will FALL.
A Wazzock leading the party. Wazzocks inside the party cheering on the cretinous stupidity of turning 119 years of socialist struggle for power into a Socialist Worker protest.
I for one cannot wait for the divorce to happen.
And followed by the greatest.
LBJ was such an operator that he could even have got the Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament - possibly.
Nonetheless, after the centenary of 1918 and this last D Day that veterans are likely to attend, and presumably the 75th anniversary of VE and VJ day next year, it is time to stop remembering and to lokkforward. A lot of this memoralising is getting very mawkish, and not very British.
The over-memorialising will continue, I fear, because the second world war has become modern Britain's creation myth, and the backdrop of both its positive and negative expressions of nationalism, from the concept of a lone democratic stand against fascism to Brexit. As long as the last veterans are standing it is also still justified to me, and when they are gone it will not be.
Some sympathy with your argument - but I suspect we wont be clear of it until the centenary anniversaries of WWII are passed. At that point the memory of wars that affected and engaged the whole country will have passed away.
I agree with Alastair's head piece that there are break points at which models really fail. The most extreme example in this country was Scottish Labour in 2015 when a previously dominant party collapsed and was left with a single seat. SLAB had some of the most venal, stupid and incompetent MPs in the Commons as well as some of the best. It did not matter a whit. All bar 1 were swept away. Something similar happened in Canada in 1993 where a majority party was reduced to 2 seats.
Are one of the big 2 going to face something equally apocalyptic at the next election? They are both doing the best. The Tories are wearing out the self destruct button and Corbyn is surely now close to the end game having irritated so many supporters.
Some have complained that the Tory candidates have focused too much on Brexit but it is entirely justified. If the new leader cannot find a path to resolve it TBP could very well replace the Tories.
Labour's task is easier, just get a new and more competent leader. Emily Thornberry struggled to explain yesterday why abusing the elected leader of our closest and most important ally was in the national interest or even remotely sensible for someone who might be FS in weeks. But there is no doubt that she would be a far more formidable opponent than Corbyn.
It is always important to remember. While I agree there is no need for over the top sentimentality and endless ceremonies, which can detract, I do think it matters that we should be conscious of our good fortune and what it took to make and preserve it. My mother knew bombing and hunger and fear and separation from family; her grand-daughter at the same age had a vastly more peaceful upbringing. That is worth - quietly - celebrating, not forgetting.
Looking forward is best done from a solid foundation, part of which is properly understanding our past. Complacency is never an attractive characteristic, even in a society.
FF43 said:
A strange conclusion - particularly as leave voters associate less with ALL of those categories...
Streeter Posts: 684
FFS. How long will this country persist in looking back to faded glory?
Recidivist Posts: 4,679
I've just seen a tweet that says the bookies have stopped taking bets on the Peterborough by election?
Mr. Streeter, you're upset that someone is remembering D-Day?
It should be remembered. If it had failed, then Europe today would be in a far worse state.
There is no-one Labour could pick who would be worse than Corbyn. As bad, for sure - but not worse. The Tories will almost certainly end up with someone worse than May. And that is saying something!
Point of order - the survey does show that Remainers associate much more with the global community than Leavers. It's still a minority but the difference is marked. As they don't associate more with the Western world, I assume this is mostly the Guardianistas like me, who feel closer to, say, an intellectual socialist in India than to Donald Trump, and who in principle doesn't think nationality is a very useful guide and personal type is more important.
CD13 Posts: 5,914
Mr L,
A lot of politics is perception and Mrs Thornberry comes over as patronising and a touch sneery. if 'Spitting Image' were still here, she'd be toast. It doesn't matter how sensible the words if the image is wrong. With a bit of coaching, she might become a contender.
I suspect that the amount of archive film of WW2 will make it a perennial for some time. I don't mind serious history and analysis, but rather the over sentimentalised mawkishness. In particular the soldier as sacrificial victim theme. The purpose of being a soldier was not do die, it was to kill. My own grandfather was in Mesopotamia attempting to shoot and bayonet Turks. I have no idea whether he managed it or not and probably he was right not to talk of it.
WW2 as Britain standing alone is one of those myths which in part fuels some of the Brexit mythology, as does the so-called "special relationship". All countries need some sort of myth to keep going - see France or even the US. But if it goes too far it blinds a country to reality, which is what is happening to Britain today, I fear.
A proper understanding of history is essential. We often seem to have the worst combination: gross over-sentimentality combined with a Boys Own understanding of what actually happened.
Still, we can honour and thank those veterans who are still with us and listen to their stories while we still can. That seems to me to be an entirely fitting and decent thing to do.
I can't help thinking that for us at least the Queen is a very important link to those days. When she finally goes I think perspectives will change quite quickly. We of course have many veterans from more recent conflicts and not a few dead to remember. The Falklands, 2 Gulf wars, Yugoslavia, we have not been short of 19th century style professional wars involving professional soldiers but not troubling the rest of us.
Aye, just so. Of course a 'national broadcaster' averting its eyes from every pecadillo of the First Family would be Trump's ideal.
I suspect that many Leave supporters believe that the Commonwealth is actually called the British Commonwealth aka The British Empire. Hilarious that they should think it more important than our relationship with the EU. Totally deluded.
'The place you grew up' is the option relevant to the Somewhere/anywhere question
Streeter said:
I hope our Country continues to pay its respect to all those who have fallen indefinitely. It is not faded glory, it is not even glory, it is a sacrifice given by tens of thousands of young men and women in defence of our freedom
MarqueeMark Posts: 41,659
Were you not too worried about Leave winning? Of Trump becoming President? It won't be who they are, but what they represent, that gets them elected.
The US wants to sweep away drugs effectiveness and cost assessments and approved lists of drugs through programmes such as NICE and HRA. It wants third countries to have American levels of healthcare costs and clinical effectiveness.
It doesn't like single payer healthcare systems such as the NHS in its current form. Trump was loose in his talk of the NHS being on the table.
D-Day should be remembered. A reasonable point, though, is that many of the different commemorations of the war seem to be continual in the last few years, at a moment when Britain needs to be urgently engaged with the present.
Although I also then don't think it's a coincidence that the particular memories it's engaging with are buttressing Brexit, I also think the wishes of the surviving veterans on this topic should be paramount ; and I'm sure most of them would like the ceremonies to continue for at least the next five years or so.
Interesting discussion of swing in the header by Alastair and the substantial contribution by IanB2. They're clearly both right that traditional models break down in these circumstances. I'm sure there ARE models that will work, though - it's not quite as random as swirling bathwater.
Possibly the Peterborough by-election will give us some clues. If the Tory vote holds up in circumstances where the Brexit challenge to Labour offers an obvious alternative, it will show a certain hardcore resistance. Likewise the Labour vote, since it can't be said that Peterborough's recent experience of Labour MPs (or indeed any MPs) has been very encouraging. If the LibDems boom, it'll show that there's substance to their rise that is resistant to tactical voting. And if the Brexit vote simply pulverises everyone, that'll of course be a Stark Warning to all of us.
_Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
I think it's been fawning and awful. The BBC is unwatchable nowadays. I long since gave up on it since the hopeless and irritating Laura K took sway.
The days of SLab having some of the best MPs in the commons were pretty distant by 2015.
Speaking of alleged peccadillos (and accusations of much worse), how are things going for the fat little twerp who used to lead the SNP? Is Nicola still defending him or has she cut her old friend lose yet? Just wondering.
matt Posts: 3,789
The test of that will be whether the memory of, and services relating to, WW1 fades. I hope it does, but doubt it will.
MarqueeMark said:
They represent small-f fascism and not-so-covert sympathy for the agenda of a hostile foreign power. Any that get elected to our Mother of Parliaments will be symbols of shame.
OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
If you look at absolute vote numbers then UKIP lost half a million votes between EP2014 and GE2015. That's not a bad baseline to have in mind for the Brexit Party, which would give them 4.75m votes at a GE2020, or about 15% of the vote.
Maybe this time is different, but it's not a bad starting point.
Yes, I think that true of the Queen. Serving in uniform, in the unglamorous role of driver, was an important symbolic act.
I agree that there are models that will work. The problem is identifying them in advance.
YouGov's model at the last election coped very well with remade coalitions, in England and Wales at least. I'd pay a lot of attention to what that produced.
OblitusSumMe said:
Looks about right to me.
I don't think that's actually true.
D-Day was in June 1944. By this time, Germany was in retreat in the south through Italy and the east from Russia. It had already essentially lost the war - as had Japan.
So what would have happened if D-Day had failed for the Allies in the worst possible way: say we'd got a massive amount of men and material over there, and then faced another Dunkirk?
Aside from the tragic loss of life, not much. The Allies had enough men and material to fight on three fronts, the Italian and eastern fronts were still open - and Germany would still be losing, and still need to defend France and the French coastline in case we tried again.
And then the US would have dropped the first nuclear bomb on Berlin, not Hiroshima.
Mid-1944 was far too late for Germany - they'd already lost the war. Even without nukes, they wouldn't have lasted much past 1946, unless Hitler somehow came to a pact with Stalin - and it's hard to see that happening.
Even if the whole of Germany ended up under Russian control, I don't think Europe now, 75 years later, would be in a 'far worse' state.
The more extreme Left do have a strand of anti-Americanism and it can permeate to the less extreme sometimes. Yes, the Septics can be barmy, they voted for Trump, but he was democratically elected.
That's what puzzles me. Not so much his election - Hillary was always a poor candidate. Vote for me because I have a vagina, I used to live in the White House, and it's my turn - but the fact that some here are happy to march against another nation's democratic decision.
'Who do you think you are?' would be my reaction were I American. It's the old illusion that people consider their own judgement impeccable. Motes in eyes, and all that.
Do you do that for the dead from The Boer War(s), The Napoleonic Wars, The Seven Years War or, or, or? Indefinite is an awfully long time and memories are sometimes better left to lie.
Remainers are more (non-European) "globalist" than Leavers, who aren't at all globalist. Point I'm making, Remainers aren't that globalist either in absolute terms or compared with their identification with Europe.
D-Day should be remembered. A reasonable point, though, is that the many of the different commemorations of the war seem to be continual in the last few years, at a moment when Britain needs to be urgently engaged with the present.
If we get to the level of remembering that Northern Ireland revels in, we'll have taken it too far. Until then, we should treat it as a duty to commemorate industrial scale sacrifice in a conflict that engulfed the planet because of idealogy. We should remember D-Day as we should remember the Holocaust and the dropping of the atomic bombs on Japan.
CD13 said:
Millions more Americans voted for Hillary. Trumpton 'won' merely because of the vagaries of the Electoral College.
Mr. Jessop, the Iron Curtain being 500 or 1,000 miles further west would've been a far worse situation.
It wasn't loose talk. It was merely repeating what the US ambassador had already said. Of course increased access to NHS contracts, tenders and the rest will be on the table in a trade deal. And if we want a deal - assuming we've not killed one off by dumping on Ireland - then we'll have to give Congress what it wants.
HYUFD Posts: 92,646
At the moment the polling shows the Brexit Party certainly ahead of the Tories in votes and seats and another hung parliament. If the Brexit Party take the lead as Opinium shows they even get most seats in that hung parliament.
If the Brexit Party win the Peterborough by election tomorrow that will also show the situation is worse for the main parties than the seat predictors predict as Labour still hold Peterborough on current polling with electoral calculus for example.
Europe would look very different without West Germany being all in the western post WW2 power axis mind. Not sure where the impetus to create the EU would have come from, as at its very heart it is essentially a peace deal between France and Germany.
Yes. What I hope we avoid is a situation where in 20 years we are still only and most prominently remembering only those events most helpful to a British national self-image ; D-Day, VE Day, Battle of Britain day and others. Heroic national events should be remembered, but in a proportionate context, too.
@IanB2 There wassome interesting work in the JRF report on Brexit on the influence of peers and locality on voting, confirming your ideas on minetown and brokerville. Those with intermediate education and skills in Leave areas were more likely to vote leave than demographic equivalents in Remain areas. In other words, voters take their cues from what is happening in their immediate environment. The message is that a Brexit that fails to deliver in Leaverstan is going to struggle to retain support, unless things markedly improve there.
https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/brexit-vote-explained-poverty-low-skills-and-lack-opportunities
The Tories will be given some room again by the voters, but there is a very clear message from the "right pool" that the Tories and Brexit Party are broadly fishing - Boris (Or one of the other seven dwarves) needs to take us out of the EU.
Indeed Boris repeats the claim here:
Even Obama's and Clinton's America was not loved by the hard left if not loathed like George W Bush and Trumps America. The only American politicians the UK hard left has much time for are self described socialist or like Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez


text:
Home Voices
What is the way forward for Nigeria?
BARBARA NEGBEJIE
in Voices
Nigeria is Africa's most populous nation, its biggest economy and the fourth largest producer of oil in the world yet many of its people live in abject poverty. Mass unemployment, decaying infrastructure, endemic corruption, ethno-religious crisis, insecurity, poor governance, declining quality of education, weak healthcare system, epileptic power supply, coupled with a myriad of other problems have continued to mitigate the growth of the country. The global oil market crash and COVID-19 pandemic further dwindled the country's economy, ravaging its citizens in 2020. Nigeria is indeed in an ugly state. BARBARA NEGBEJIE seeks recommendations on the way forward for Nigeria in 2021.
'Better management strategies'
2020 is a year that Nigerians will never forget in a hurry. Events such as COVID-19, insecurity, #EndSARS protest, ASUU strike, pipeline explosions e.t.c have impacted terribly on Nigerians. It is therefore expected that 2021 will usher in better management strategies by Government that will tackle insecurity, epileptic power supply, COVID-19 pandemic and ensure job creation for our teaming jobless youths.
• Mrs. C. O. Azih, Deputy Director (rtd)
'Get rid of ethnicity issues'
I don't see 2021 being better than 2020, not with bad leadership and governance, greed, corruption and killings. Until we all start loving our country, ourselves and the environment, get rid of ethnicity. A better 2021 for me means "TOTAL REVOLUTION ".
•Ms. Chinyere Nkwonta, Data Analyst and Administrator
'All regions and citizens should embrace peace, stop politicising everything'
The way forward for Nigeria in 2021 is for all regions and its citizens to embrace "PEACE" and stop politicising everything that affects the existence of human beings. Nigeria should begin to take seriously its agenda for economic diversification and promote a serene environment for foreign investors to play on a level playing field. In conclusion, Nigeria must say no to insurgency, kidnapping, banditry, child trafficking and other social and moral ills and embrace dialogue in every facet of life
• Lady Anthonia Osilaja, Chief Information Officer, Federal Ministry of Information. A parishioner of Sacred Heart Catholic Church, Ojota
'See the country as a collective project and common patrimony'
The way forward for Nigeria in 2021 and beyond is for all Nigerians to see the country as a collective project and common patrimony, not the business of politicians; and accordingly take responsibility and ownership of the project irrespective of their social status, tribes and beliefs. Importantly, proper education must occupy the front burner for any meaningful development to take place in Nigeria.
• Lawrence Ohineme
'Tackle issue of insecurity'
Entrenched in the Nigerian constitution is the safeguard of lives and properties of Nigerians, as the primary responsibility of the government. This implies that the Nigerian government should tackle the issue of insecurity in Nigeria. If this can be done, then the many issues of kidnapping, displacement of people and killing of Nigerians will be grossly reduced, making Nigeria a safe and hospitable place to all and sundry. A safe environment makes development and growth possible.
• Mrs. Ihuoma Uchenna, CCM, Festac Deanery Coordinator

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
'Babysitting while black': Woman calls police on black babysitter watching white children
A white woman who spotted a black man babysitting two white children called police and then followed them home in Georgia.WGCL-TV reported Tuesday that the woman stopped Corey Lewis outside a Cobb County Walmart and asked to speak to the kids. "She pulled up alongside us and asked, 'Are the kids OK?'" Lewis told Yahoo Lifestyle. "I answered, 'Why wouldn't they be?' She just smirked and drove off."The woman circled the parking lot and returned to say, "Can I ask the little girl if she knows who you are?" and Lewis answered, "No, you cannot." The woman then said, "OK, I will take down your license plate." The woman called police and followed them to his home, where he was met by a Cobb County police officer. Lewis live-streamed the interaction with the officer on Facebook, where it has been shared more than 10,000 times and viewed more than 500,000 times. "All because I'm black and have two white kids with me," Lewis said on Facebook.Lewis tells the officer he is being followed and harassed but the officer said he needs to speak with the children, ages 6 and 10, to make sure the story is accurate. "At this point in time it's ... like an OK check, to make sure everything is all right," the officer said in the video.One of the children tells the officer Lewis is their babysitter. The officer asks Lewis why he is recording."I'm letting the world know what's really going on," Lewis is heard saying. "It's 2018, I can't step out into the community without being profiled."The officer, sounding sympathetic, says, "It is what it is." The officer questioned the children and called their parents, David Parker and Dana Mango. The couple said Lewis is a family friend and their son attends his youth program.Mango said the officer told her Lewis was questioned because he's a black man driving around with two white children."I said, 'Are you saying that because there's an African-American male driving my two white kids, that he was stopped and pulled over and questioned?' and he said, 'I'm sorry ma'am that's exactly what I'm saying,'" Mango said.Parker said he guesses "B-W-B is the new thing, babysitting while black."Parker and Mango said they don't believe the woman was trying to protect their children because they never showed signs of being in danger.
COBB COUNTY, Ga. —
A white woman who spotted a black man babysitting two white children called police and then followed them home in Georgia.
WGCL-TV reported Tuesday that the woman stopped Corey Lewis outside a Cobb County Walmart and asked to speak to the kids.
"She pulled up alongside us and asked, 'Are the kids OK?'" Lewis told Yahoo Lifestyle. "I answered, 'Why wouldn't they be?' She just smirked and drove off."
The woman circled the parking lot and returned to say, "Can I ask the little girl if she knows who you are?" and Lewis answered, "No, you cannot." The woman then said, "OK, I will take down your license plate."
The woman called police and followed them to his home, where he was met by a Cobb County police officer.
Lewis live-streamed the interaction with the officer on Facebook, where it has been shared more than 10,000 times and viewed more than 500,000 times.
"All because I'm black and have two white kids with me," Lewis said on Facebook.
Lewis tells the officer he is being followed and harassed but the officer said he needs to speak with the children, ages 6 and 10, to make sure the story is accurate.
"At this point in time it's ... like an OK check, to make sure everything is all right," the officer said in the video.
One of the children tells the officer Lewis is their babysitter. The officer asks Lewis why he is recording.
"I'm letting the world know what's really going on," Lewis is heard saying. "It's 2018, I can't step out into the community without being profiled."
The officer, sounding sympathetic, says, "It is what it is."
The officer questioned the children and called their parents, David Parker and Dana Mango. The couple said Lewis is a family friend and their son attends his youth program.
Mango said the officer told her Lewis was questioned because he's a black man driving around with two white children.
"I said, 'Are you saying that because there's an African-American male driving my two white kids, that he was stopped and pulled over and questioned?' and he said, 'I'm sorry ma'am that's exactly what I'm saying,'" Mango said.
Parker said he guesses "B-W-B is the new thing, babysitting while black."
Parker and Mango said they don't believe the woman was trying to protect their children because they never showed signs of being in danger.


text:
Reginar IV. (* nach 947; † 1013) aus der Familie der Reginare war der Sohn von Reginar III., der für eine kurze Zeit Graf von Hennegau war, aber bei Kaiser Otto I. in Ungnade fiel. Reginar IV. erhielt 998 die Grafschaft Mons.

Leben
Reginar war noch minderjährig, als sein Vater nach Böhmen ins Exil geschickt wurde und die übrige Familie an den Hof des westfränkischen Königs flüchtete. 973 griff er gemeinsam mit seinem Bruder Lambert die Grafen Renaud von Mons und Garnier von Valenciennes an, denen im gleichen Jahr der geteilte Hennegau übergeben worden war, tötete sie bei Péronne, und begann damit, den Hennegau zu besetzen, wurde aber von Kaiser Otto II. zurückgeschlagen.

976 unternahm er mit Unterstützung Karls, des jüngeren Bruders des westfränkischen Königs Lothar, einen zweiten Versuch, diesmal gegen die neuen Grafen, Gottfried der Gefangene, Graf von Verdun und Arnulf, der aber am 19. April bei Mons mit einer Niederlage endete.

Um der Bedrohung abzuhelfen, übergab Otto II. 978 Karl das Herzogtum Niederlothringen und Reginar einen Teil des väterlichen Besitzes; Reginar musste jedoch noch bis 998 warten, bis nach dem Tod Gottfrieds, ehe er die Grafschaft Mons erhielt.

Um 996 heiratete er Hedwig von Frankreich (* wohl 969, † nach 1013), Tochter von Hugo Capet, dem König von Frankreich, und Alice von Poitou. Kinder des Paares waren:
 Reginar V., † nach 1039, Graf im Hennegau, ⚭ um 1015 Mathilde von Verdun, † nach 1039, Tochter des Hermann von Eenham, Graf im Eifelgau (Wigeriche)
 Beatrix, ⚭ I, geschieden vor 1021, Ebalus (Ebles) I., † 11. Mai 1033, 997 Graf von Roucy, 1023 Graf von Reims, Erzbischof von Reims (Haus Roucy); ⚭ II Manasses Calva Asina de Ramerupt (Montdidier), Vidame de Reims, 1031/53 bezeugt (Haus Montdidier)

Literatur
  (auf Seiten 555–556 wird Reginar IV. behandelt)

Familienmitglied der Reginare
Graf (Hennegau)
Geboren im 10. Jahrhundert
Gestorben 1013
Mann

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
The Dragon Reborn (Chapter 11): Tar Valon
Posted on September 18, 2021 September 29, 2021 by dustyreviewer
Welcome back to my re-read, recap, and reaction to Robert Jordan's Wheel of Time series. This post will only have spoilers through the current chapter.
You can find my previous chapter recaps HERE.
Chapter 11: Tar Valon
As Egwene and her party ride through Darein, a village just outside of Tar Valon, she notices enough soldiers that it seems to her the village is preparing for war. The soldiers give way to Verin and their party at a wave of an officer's gauntleted hand. All of the soldiers are wearing the White Flame of Tar Valon, shaped like a snowy tear drop, on their chests. Verin leads their party through the bustling village to the Great Bridge, arching over half a mile of water like lace woven from stone.
More soldiers stand guard at the foot of the bridge checking everyone who wants to cross. The leader of these soldiers opens his mouth angrily when Verin leads her party to the front of the line but hurriedly removes his helmet when he gets a good look at Verin's face. No one who really knows Aes Sedai needs to see a Great Serpent ring to identify them. They are identifiable by their ageless faces. The soldier tells Verin and her group that they can go right across.
Vern reigns in beside the soldier. She asks if there has been trouble from the Whitecloaks. Egwene worries about the impact a wait might have on Mat and tries to interrupt her conversation but Verin cuts her short and tells Egwene that she has not forgotten Mat. Verin returns to her conversation with the officer and learns that Whitecloaks moved into a village but were pushed back by the Amyrlin's soldiers. Verin asks about the outlying villages and the soldier becomes uncomfortable.
Soldier: We can't keep the Whitecloaks out Aes Sedai but they move out when our patrols ride in. They seem to be trying to goad us.
Verin is ready to ride on but the soldier speaks again saying that it is obvious they have come from a distance. He asks Verin if she has any news and tells her that there are rumors of a new False Dragon out west somewhere. He tells her further that the rumors say he has Artur Hawkwing's armies back from the dead following him. He says also that the rumor is they killed a lot of Whitecloaks and destroyed Falme. Another man who has been listening adds that the rumor is that Aes Sedai helped the False Dragon. Verin replies to the soldier that rumors are seldom true and that Falme still stands. She advises him to listen less to rumor and more to the Amyrlin Seat.
The bridge strike Egwene with wonder. It seems impossible that it could be made with stone or that it could stand its own weight. Egwene is surprised to feel like the bridge is taking her home. She tells herself that Emond's Field is her home but she knows that Tar Valon is where she will learn what she must learn to keep herself alive and free. She also hopes to learn in Tar Valon why her dreams trouble her and seem to have meanings that she cannot puzzle out. She knows that if she ever returns to Emond's Field, it will only be to visit her parents.
There are no guards on the gates at the other side of the bridge. The air smells of flowers, perfumes, and spices. The city itself is so beautiful that it takes Egwene's breath. Even the most insignificant building in the city were made for beauty. Ogier stonemasons built the city in the years after the Breaking of the World and they maintained that it was their finest work. Men and women of every nation throng the streets.
Once in the crowd, Verin pulls her cowl back up to hide her face. No one seems to be paying them any mind. Egwene rides up beside Verin and leans close to ask her if she expects trouble now that they are in the city. The White Tower now stands in plain sight. Verin replies to her that she always expects trouble. She tells Egwene that she should also, especially in the Tower. She telsl them that their tricks frightened away the Whitecloaks but that that inside the Tower the same could bring them death or stilling. Egwene protests that none of them would do that in the Tower itself. Verin tells them sharply that she hopes that they have learned their lesson and also the lesson to hold their tongues. She warns all of them then to hold their tongues once inside the Tower grounds and to accept whatever comes.
The street opens into a vast square and in the middle of the square stands the White Tower, shining in the sun. There are surprisingly few people in the square. Hurin leads the horse litter forward as they enter the square. He tells Verin that he must leave her now. She replies to him that he has been a great help on their journey. She tells him that there will be a place in the Tower for him to rest but he declines emphatically saying that he must leave within the hour to return to Shienar. He says he must tell King Easar and Lord Agelmar the truth of what happened at Falme. He lowers his voice and looks around before saying that he must tell them about Rand. He says that there must be trading ships heading up river and that he means to be on the next to sail. She bids him to go in the Light.
Before he leaves, he tells them that if ever they need him to send word to him in Shienar and that he will come. After he is gone, Nynaeve gives an exasperated shake of her head.
Nynaeve: Men, they always say to send for them if you need them, but when you do need them you need them right then.
Verin: No man can help where we are going now. Remember – be silent.
Egwene feels a sense of loss at Hurin's going. She knows that Verin is right but she cannot help but feel that a man with a sword is useful to have around. She also misses him because he had been a link to Rand and Perrin. She tells herself that Rand and Perrin will have to make do with Moiraine to look after them. She thinks with a flash of jealousy that Min will most certainly look after Rand. She tries to suppress the feeling and almost succeeds.
Mat's breathing in the horse litter is a dry rasp. She thinks to herself that soon Mat will be healed. She also wishes that Verin would stop trying to frighten them. She wishes that Verin did not have reason to frighten them. The Brown Sister takes them around the grounds to a small side gate attended to by two guards. She pushes back her cowl and leans to speak softly to one of the two men. He gives a start before taking off at a run. Verin rides through the gates as he goes and Egwene thinks that she is riding as if there is no hurry. Egwene follows with the litter exchanging glances with Nynaeve and Elayne, wondering what she told the man.
They eventually arrive at a stableyard. At Verin's direction, some grooms unfasten the litter that Mat is lying in and they set it gently to one side. As the horses are led away, Verin takes the leather sack from Mat's feet and tucks it carelessly under one arm. Nynaeve frowns at her and begins to speak but Verin holds up a hand and the former Wisdom stops. A crunch of feet on gravel approach them. In a moment, Sheriam Sedai appears followed by three of the Accepted. She also has with her two husky men in rough laborers clothes.
Sheriam Sedai, the Mistress of Novices, has flame red hair and high cheek bones which are common in her native Saldaea. Her tilted green eyes make her smooth Aes Sedai features striking. She eyes Egwene and the others calmly.
Sheriam: So you have brought back our three runaways Verin. With everything that had happened I could almost wish you had not.
Egwene begins to protest but Verin cuts her off with a sharp "be silent!" The Brown Sister stares at all three of them as if the intensity of her look could hold all of their mouths shut. Egwene is sure that for her part it could. She has never seen Verin look so angry. Nynaeve crosses her arms and says nothing. When Verin is certain that Egwene and the others will remain still, she turns back to Sheriam.
Verin: The boy must be taken somewhere away from everyone. He is ill, dangerously so, dangerous to others as well as to himself.
Sheriam motions the two men to the litter and Mat is whisked away. Egwene opens her mouth to say that he needs help now but at Verin's quick and furious stare she closes her mouth again. Nynaeve is pulling on her braid nearly hard enough to pull it out of her head. Verin supposes aloud to Sheriam that the entire Tower knows by now that they have returned. Sheriam replies that those who do not know will know within the hour. Sheriam tells her that comings and goings have become the first topic of conversation even before Falme and the War in Cairhein. She asks Verin if she hoped to keep their return secret. Verin replies by telling Sheriam that she must see the Amyrlin immediately.
Sheriam: And what of these three?
Verin considers Egwene and her friends, frowning, and replies that they must be closely held until the Amyrlin wishes to see them. She tells Sheriam that they need not use the cells, that their own rooms will work well enough, but that nothing must be said to anyone until they have been dealt with by the Amyrlin. Egwene is not sure whether she feels anger, fear, or worry, and decides it is likely some of all three.
With one last glance at her three traveling companions, Verin hurries off clutching the leather sack to her chest. Sheriam puts her fists on her hips and studies the three of them. The Mistress of Novices' voice is grim when she speaks. She tells the three of them not to speak a word until they have seen the Amyrlin Seat.
Sheriam growls in disgust before speaking. She says that fewer girls come to the Tower than once did. She says a few of them leave after learning how not to harm themselves or others. She adds that only a bare handful can aspire to be raised to the Accepted and fewer still to wear an Aes Sedai's shawl. She says that it is a hard life and a hard discipline yet every Novice fights for the right to obtain the shawl.
Sheriam: And you three who have more ability born in you than I ever hoped to see in my lifetime left the Tower without permission, ran away not even half trained, like irresponsible children, stayed away for months, and now you ride back in as if nothing has happened, as if you can take up your training again on the morrow.
She lets out a long breath and calls to Faolain, one of the Accepted with her. She orders the Accepted to take them to their rooms and to keep them there. She tells the Accepted that they may have bread, cold broth, and water until the Amyrlin Seat says otherwise. She tells the Accepted that if one of the three of them utters even one word that she can take her to the kitchens and set her to scrubbing pots. Sheriam whirls and stalks away expressing anger even with her back.
Faolain eyes the three of them with almost a hopeful air. She tells them that when they are sent for they will probably be stilled. Another Accepted, Theodrin, tells her to give over. Theodrin is the oldest of the Accepted present and tells Nynaeve that she will escort her to her room without attempting to bait her into anger. Nynaeve lets Theodrin lead her away. Faolain turns her stare to Egwene and Elayne. A third Accepted, a pretty apple cheeked young woman, stations herself beside Elayne. Egwene returns Faolain's stare with as much calm as she can manage.
Egwene wonders what the Aes Sedai are planning to do to them. Faolain bids her to come along. Egwene takes Elayne's hand and follows while hoping that they are healing Mat.
The White Tower / Tar Valon (as shown in the series trailer)
I wonder if I am the only one who is bothered by the fact that the apple cheeked Accepted does not get a name. She deserves a name.
Let's see… so Hurin is gone. I think Nynaeve is probably being a little bit unfair with the "if you need me" exasperation. Hurin's skillset is such that it might be worth sending for him and waiting for him. He is regularly sent for and waited on in Shienar.
I wonder how much of Sheriam's anger is "for show" for the three Accepted. It's one thing if the Aes Sedai know that the girls were kidnapped but I absolutely do not believe that this information is known among the students in the White Tower. Sheriam is probably making sure that the "they ran away" story is the one the Accepted believe.
I'm curious about Verin's information fishing at the bridge. But I don't really have any great guesses about what she was up to there. She was ready to ride away before the soldier started volunteering information about rumors that reached the city. Her questions seemed more directly confined to the city's defenses. Perhaps she was trying to find out how strained things might be between Andor and Tar Valon since she heard that from Dain Bornhald?
That's about it for this chapter. I suppose since we know that Min is on her way to Tar Valon that her entrance into the city might be tricky AND that things will be frosty between her and Egwene when that happens. We'll probably have to wait for future chapters to see if the Black Ajah is still trying to kill the Supergirls.
Tags: Egwene al'Vere, Elayne, Hurin, Nynaeve, Nynaeve al'Meara, TDR, The Dragon Reborn, The Wheel of Time, Verin, Verin Mathwin, Wheel of Time, WoTCategories: Books
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This is my top recommended carrier for any serious hiking or camping, especially in less than ideal weather conditions and/or lots of dirt and mud. Since the weight limit is 75 pounds and the design fits a carrier's body so well, I also recommend it especially for bigger kids. Babies under 15 pounds and/or shorter need a boost from a small blanket (or use their Baby Booster), but it's a quick and easy fix.
Please be sure to head over and read my full review of the Onya Outback here (it's been updated since my original post 2.5 years ago!). Also, if you haven't seen it before and are looking for a baby carrier, The Great Babywearing Project has a whole list of comprehensive reviews we have done.
Over the past 6 months or so, we have been actively carrying Adventure Medical Kits. Really, this shouldn't be something new to us. And mostly, it isn't. Mtn Papa is the one that is so good about making sure we are prepared and always has something for minor issues in the least. But, I will admit that I get so preoccupied about making sure that I have all three kids with us AND the gear that they need, that I tend to forget medical supplies unless we are on an extended hike or camping trip. Lame excuse, but it's true. Not a big deal when we are together as a family and Mtn Papa remembers – bigger deal when I have the kids out by myself (which is often in the summer especially).
Adventure Medical Kits has a wide array of full kits to make it easy to have what you need, when you need it for minor to moderate (and major to a degree) emergencies. The supplies are clearly marked so replacing them is easy (on your own or through their site) and they include some instruction guides to walk you through the bigger emergencies. There's a full line-up on their site.
We use the Day Tripper ($33) for many of our hikes and in conjunction with the Family kit if we have more people with us.
The Family kit comes with the Caring for Children in the Outdoors small booklet which is super helpful. Pockets are labeled clearly so it's easy to find materials quickly and then replace them afterwards.
The Family Kit helps treat pain and illness, sprains and fractures, and has instructions and medicines for children AND adults – enough for a whole group of people (up to 4).
It's a little on the bigger side for carrying in a day pack, but does have a smaller kit you can take out to put in the glove box, stroller, etc.
This is the kit we have ready for at home, traveling AND on the trail.
This is something new – mailings start in January – and is a great way when YOU are traveling, but the kiddos are left at home OR just a way for kids to get fun mail and learn about the world around them.
Rocket Bear is a postcard subscription service for kids ages 3 – 8. Rocket Bear travels around the world and each week he sends his friends a postcard from the place he travels to. The postcards feature fascinating facts and information about where Rocket Bear is, a positive note to the child and a full‐color photo on the front.
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CHRISTCHURCH: New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Tuesday paid tribute to Pakistani man Naeem Rashid, who embraced martyrdom in an attempt to prevent the Australian terrorist from entering the Al Noor Mosque at Christchurch in New Zealand.
Expressing solidarity with the Muslims, Jacinda Ardern promised the grieving New Zealanders that the Australian terrorist, who killed 50 worshippers in a brutal assault on two mosques in Christchuch, will face the "full force of the law".
She started her address to the Parliament with Muslim greeting, Assalam-u-alaikum (Peace be unto you), saying Naeem Rashid has laid down his life to save lives of worshippers gathered inside the mosque.
Leaders from around the world have condemned the massacre at two New Zealand mosques, calling to halt the spread of Islamophobia.


text:
Au bal de Flore est un film français réalisé par Alice Guy en 1900.

Synopsis
Enregistrement d'une danse par Mesdemoiselles Lally et Julyett de l'Olympia.

Fiche technique
 Titre : Au bal de Flore
 Réalisation : Alice Guy
 Société de production : Société L. Gaumont et compagnie
 Pays d'origine :
 Genre :  Film documentaire
 Durée : 2 minutes
 Date de sortie : 1900
 Licence : Domaine public

Distribution
 Mademoiselle Lally
 Mademoiselle Julyett

Autour du film
La partie de film subsistant est colorée à la main à l'aide de pochoirs.

Liens externes
 Le film référencé sous le titre Au bal de Flore dans le coffret de DVD Le cinéma premier 1897-1913 volume 1 édité par Gaumont en 2008 correspond, semble-t-il, à la référence
 Au bal de Flore suivi de Les Fredaines de Pierrette sur Dailymotion

Film français sorti en 1900
Film documentaire français
Film documentaire sur la danse
Film muet français
Film français en noir et blanc
Film réalisé par Alice Guy


text:
Cafe Social
Thread starter bpdougd
bpdougd
There is a bond, a oneness, that exists between those in certain endeavors or with certain shared experiences. This is true, with an exponent, of veterans.
I have been shot at twice in my life. Neither time was I in serious jeopardy. My father and my uncle were shot at a lot and were damned lucky to have survived. Dad served in the Pacific (New Guinea and the Philippines). Uncle Bob landed in Normandy on D-Day and was one of the 10% who survived through the end of the war. My burdens were trivial compared to theirs. Yet we share a common bond.
To all the brothers and sisters who served and are yet serving, know that you are loved and valued beyond the power of words to tell.
I offer these closing lines from John Ciardi's poem, Ulysses:
"I returned to the sea, and at the last mountain
I stood to remember, and the memory
could not live in the fact. I had grown old
in the wrong world. Penelope wove for nothing
her fabric and delay. I could not return.
I was woven to my dead men. In the dust
of the dead shore by the dead sea I lay down
and named their names who had matched lives with me,
and won. And they were all that I loved."
Jefferson Barracks National Cemetery where my Uncle Bob is buried.
Mike Buckley
Northern VA suburb of Washington, DC
Both your narrative and photos provide a very nice commemoration!
Nicely done, Doug. Thanks for your service--all of you.
A fitting way to honor your dad and uncle....and all those who served....including you. You were willing.....many were/are not!
SW Virginia
Well done, Doug, and thanks for your service and especially that of your Dad and Uncle. I had several first cousins who served during WW II, including one who flew 99 missions in Italy.
I served in the Navy during the Viet Nam war, but had a rather cushy post as an instructor at the Navy Nuclear Power School for five years.
Pa said:
I served in the Army during the last part of the Viet Nam war, but had a rather cushy post as a clarinetist in the U. S. Army Band.
Hylander
North Springfield VA
Bill Walderman
I served in the Army during the Viet Nam war, but had a rathe cushy post as a Russian translator/interrogator in Munich.
My father served in the Navy for a while during WWI but never got out of the Brooklyn Navy Yard. Good thing, too, because he never learned to swim.
I was never officially in any sort of combat duty. Out of basic training I went to language school (Mandarin Chinese at The Presidio of Monterrey). Half way through 27 weeks of language school I spent two weeks in the hospital at Ft. Ord with bronchitis. Almost died. After that I was reassigned to Lackland AFB to be a construction equipment mechanic. (The military works in mysterious ways.) Worked there for about a year and was assigned to Osan AFB in Korea. That was the first place I was shot at.
In Korea, I was gifted the "additional duty" of being a "Security Police Augmentee". This meant I got a helmet liner, a web belt and canteen, a shelter half and an assigned M-16 that was kept in the squadron weapons room. I also got a week of heavy weapons training with the ROK Marines. That was fun, shooting real automatic weapons and blowing stuff up. But, I digress. In the case of a security alert I had to grab the (largely useless) stuff and head to the weapons room to get my assigned weapon. Usually they gave us an empty magazine (guys kept losing ammo) but one time we got two magazines with actual bullets. Out on the base perimeter we took our assigned spots and after a few minutes there was incoming fire. Along the perimeter there were a number of non-functional WW2-vintage halftracks that were used as fixed gun emplacements (with .50 cal. machine guns). Manned by ROK Marines, these opened up and fired for quite a while. It got quiet and we were sent back to our day jobs. The North Koreans would occasionally send folks south to stir things up. This was such a case. A dozen or so North Korean infiltrators died that day.
A little later during my tour in Korea, I was sent on a 6 week TDY to Tan Son Nhut AFB in South Vietnam. I was pretty good with hydraulics, there was a big build up prior to an anticipated attack over the Tet holiday and they needed to keep the loaders that were used to load and unload the cargo aircraft working. All I saw of that troubled country was the AFB (and the tent where I slept). The second week there all hell broke loose and there was a lot of loud noises and shooting. All of us in that tent beat feet for a shelter. When the ruckus was over we discovered we would be needing a new tent.
Like I said before, shot at a couple of times but never really at risk.
A guy I met in basic became a friend that I kept in touch with. He went into personnel. In a letter from South Vietnam, he bemoaned the fact that he chose a typewriter over a gun to avoid wading in the mud with people shooting at him. In Vietnam, Republic Of, he became, like me, a Security Police Augmentee. He died in that role. He was the reason I visited Washington DC the year I got out. That wall is powerful.
bpdougd said:
Out of basic training I went to language school (Mandarin Chinese at The Presidio of Monterrey).
Thanks for sharing your story, Doug. I went through the 47-week Russian language program at the Presidio of Monterey in 1969. Never shot at, and to this day still more or less alive.
Through the years I kept up with three friends from the language school. Two are now dead; one had Alzheimer's and haven't been able to learn his fate. I still have three close friends from my Army days. Another friend, my roommate in Munich, is dead.
I enlisted after college to avoid being drafted, and managed to get into the Russian language program. I had been a Classics major in college, and Russian is structurally similar to Latin and Greek in many ways, and equally fascinating, so I was right in my element. I actually had a good three years while I was in the Army. I'm glad I had the experience, most of all for the opportunity -- especially after a youth sheltered in what I would have to describe as "elite" educational institutions -- to get to know so many young men from all walks of life (but only men in that era), and to get to see their skills, their potential, their innate intelligence regardless of educational attainments, and their fundamental good nature. (But I also got to see, if not the very worst of humanity, the less attractive segments, too.)
Many of us were draftees who happened to be plucked by capricious fate from what all too many were forced to endure. I feel even more strongly today than at the time that the Viet Nam war was a sad and wholly unnecessary waste of human life and human potential.
Hylander said:
We were at the Presidio at the same time. I finished basic mid September of 1969 and stayed at Lackland AFB in what the AF called "casual control" waiting for the next class to start. By early October I was in Monterrey.
Another similarity is our motivation for signing up. I was on the cusp of my third year at U of H when my dad had a massive heart attack. I dropped out and went to work to help support the family but with a low-double-digit draft lottery number my days of civilian life were, well, "numbered" so I enlisted in the AF. It was a nick-of-time decision. I got my draft notice while I was in basic training.
I share your experience and observations about the virtues (and downsides) of service in a draftee military. I grew up in a whitebread world in South Houston, Texas. My high school had no black faces and only a small number of brown faces and they never spoke Spanish at school preferring (or perhaps needing) to fly under the radar. There was precisely one Jewish kid (Nathan Isgur, a year ahead of me and scary smart. Full ride to an elite college. Advanced degree in physics. He fled to Canada to avoid the draft.) The military yanked me out of that world to my great benefit.
I also agree with your emotions concerning that war. I recommend Vietnam: A History by Stanley Karnow as the best, most comprehensive history of both Vietnam and of our later involvement. I also recommend Dereliction Of Duty by H.R. McMaster (retired Army general and former National Security Advisor to the current administration). Karnow was/is a journalist who lived through what he writes about but is also a gifted historian, laying out a millennium of history of the Vietnamese people. General McMaster lays great blame at the feet of the military leadership of that time, arguing that they failed in their duty to speak truth to power. The political calculations that killed so many young Americans are laid bare in both books.


text:
Hypercholesterolemia Induces a Mast Cell-CD4+ T Cell Interaction in Atherosclerosis
Mast cells (MCs) are potent innate immune cells that aggravate atherosclerosis through the release of proinflammatory mediators inside atherosclerotic plaques. Similarly, CD4+ T cells are constituents of the adaptive immune response and accumulate within the plaques following lipid-specific activation by APCs. Recently it has been proposed that these two cell types can interact in a direct manner. However, no indication of such an interaction has been investigated in the context of atherosclerosis. In our study, we aimed to examine whether MCs can act as APCs in atherosclerosis, thereby modulating CD4+ T cell responses. We observed that MCs increased their MHC class II expression under hyperlipidemic conditions both in vivo and in vitro. Furthermore, we showed that MCs can present Ags in vivo via MHC class II molecules. Serum from high-fat diet-fed mice also enhanced the expression of the costimulatory molecule CD86 on cultured MCs, whereas OVA peptide-loaded MCs increased OT-II CD4+ T cell proliferation in vitro. The aortic CD4+ and TH1 cell content of atherosclerotic mice that lack MCs was reduced as compared with their wild-type counterparts. Importantly, we identified MCs that express HLA-DR in advanced human atheromata, indicating that these cells are capable of Ag presentation within human atherosclerotic plaques. Therefore, in this artice, we show that MCs may directly modulate adaptive immunity by acting as APCs in atherosclerosis.
Titolo: Hypercholesterolemia Induces a Mast Cell-CD4+ T Cell Interaction in Atherosclerosis
Kritikou, Eva
van der Heijden, Thomas
Swart, Maarten
van Duijn, Janine
Slütter, Bram
Wezel, Anouk
Smeets, Harm J
MAFFIA, PASQUALE [Membro del Collaboration Group]
Kuiper, Johan
Bot, Ilze
JOURNAL OF IMMUNOLOGY
Abstract: Mast cells (MCs) are potent innate immune cells that aggravate atherosclerosis through the releas...e of proinflammatory mediators inside atherosclerotic plaques. Similarly, CD4+ T cells are constituents of the adaptive immune response and accumulate within the plaques following lipid-specific activation by APCs. Recently it has been proposed that these two cell types can interact in a direct manner. However, no indication of such an interaction has been investigated in the context of atherosclerosis. In our study, we aimed to examine whether MCs can act as APCs in atherosclerosis, thereby modulating CD4+ T cell responses. We observed that MCs increased their MHC class II expression under hyperlipidemic conditions both in vivo and in vitro. Furthermore, we showed that MCs can present Ags in vivo via MHC class II molecules. Serum from high-fat diet-fed mice also enhanced the expression of the costimulatory molecule CD86 on cultured MCs, whereas OVA peptide-loaded MCs increased OT-II CD4+ T cell proliferation in vitro. The aortic CD4+ and TH1 cell content of atherosclerotic mice that lack MCs was reduced as compared with their wild-type counterparts. Importantly, we identified MCs that express HLA-DR in advanced human atheromata, indicating that these cells are capable of Ag presentation within human atherosclerotic plaques. Therefore, in this artice, we show that MCs may directly modulate adaptive immunity by acting as APCs in atherosclerosis.
JI 2019.pdf Documento in Post-print Accesso privato/ristretto Open Access Visualizza/Apri


Can you Suggest me a Best multi vendor script?
I want know the best multi vendor script. can you please help me.
I have developed Joomla and wordpress shopping carts and also tried opencart.
For multi seller carts, my options are base on my clients budget.
For less budgeted client I often use Joomla.
*Mijo shop seems to be good option since alot of payment system from opencart. The only problem is if you want other feature like newsletter or an auction or something else, it is not integrated in terms of data and users.
if you have question to this they have a contact form.
*JMarket multi vendor is another good player. it is very complete which you can do auction, sell voucher and subscription as well. they have a mini crm and help-desk to manage customers and newsletter.
They do the same pricing model with template company where you can download everything during your active subscription.
You start for free without expiration but 30 days free update and support i believe. all software from this company can be used for free. i believe it is exactly the same package of the commercial the only difference is you do not have serial key.
if you want more question they have live chat you can ask with your req.
i know there are other players but i have no time to learn. The learning curve is long so better stick to the one i know.
I would go with WooCommerce and multiple vendors plugin.
I bought the Woocommerce multi-vendor and hated it. I refunded and got the one by mgates. It is really superior to the Woocommerce one.
I would suggest you Uniecommerce's Uni-eMerchant for multi vendor script. Its the only software providing group deals and online auction with regular ecommerce. Also has many unique features.
Since the Etsy website has the feature which you expected, its better to check with any web application similar to the Etsy clone website in market,else furnish your specification to any of the reputed web development company and obtain a web solution similar to the Etsy website effectively.
Just as suggested, look up Magento to see if it's the right shopping cart for you. It comes feature packed ready out the box. It's by far the best cart I've used. It does need a bit of time to get used to though.
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Magento is a good option for muliple store hosting.
One of my client is using a Multivendorz shopping cart software. Which sounds good with its features.


Editor's notes: Happy 5th anniversary to African Entrepreneur Collective (AEC)! It's an honor to partner, almost since their launch, with a social enterprise that's made such a dent in unemployment by applying good business and venture capital principles, through nonprofit funding, to build sustainable African jobs from within.
21,500 lives impacted . . .
By what? Business advisory services, a supportive network, and an eye for potential CEOs among Africa's youth. Our rock-star partners at African Entrepreneur Collective (AEC), founded by two Americans and led by East Africans, are transforming youth unemployment and underemployment into bustling businesses. They are a network of business accelerators that works with young entrepreneurs to create jobs across Africa.
AEC currently works in Rwanda, with plans to expand to Kenya in January 2019. And, with a focus on serving refugees in Rwanda (64 percent of their entrepreneurs) from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo, linking refugees with locals in cohorts of three to serve both sheltering communities and the local economy.
AEC entrepreneurs build businesses and hire locals in a range of industries.
The Pioneer Gap: What Is It, and Why Does AEC Focus on It?
AEC believes supporting young entrepreneurs is the most sustainable way to move African nations out of poverty.
Many organizations in Africa focus on the early-stage new businesses or provide short-term services. These offerings generate an abundance of ideas, but too often fail to generate real enterprises that create meaningful numbers of jobs.
Instead, AEC's programs provide ongoing support to existing entrepreneurs to enter new markets, strengthen their operations, and ultimately grow their businesses. To create more jobs in Africa, they find the people who are already creating jobs, and help them do it better. AEC's programs now support a wide range of industries in technology, textiles, food, shops, art, and human resources.
Recording sales in her ledger, this shop owner trains local women in medicinal herbs.
AEC targets entrepreneurs who already run businesses that show promise but need to scale.
All problems on the Continent have solutions that already exist on the Continent.
We push ourselves to reach beyond what we think is possible.
We are committed to continuous learning and growing.
Guess it's an AEC thing . . .
You might recall that in 2017 we told you about a photographic essay/storybook featuring the vistas and businesses of AEC's entrepreneurs, Beyond A Thousand Hills. It's due out soon; check out their progress or pre-order your copy here!
All photographs and video courtesy of African Entrepreneur Collective.
LEARN more about the African Entrepreneur Collective here.
DONATE directly to help support the African Entrepreneur Collective's portfolio of companies in East Africa, here.


text:
package org.oscm.types.exceptions;

import javax.ejb.ApplicationException;
import javax.xml.ws.WebFault;

import org.oscm.types.exceptions.beans.DeletionConstraintExceptionBean;

/**
 * Exception thrown when the deletion of an object fails due to the violation of
 * specific business rules.
 */
@ApplicationException(rollback = true)
@WebFault(name = "DeletionConstraintException", targetNamespace = "http://oscm.org/xsd")
public class DeletionConstraintException extends DomainObjectException {

    private static final long serialVersionUID = 2482782574158410011L;

    private DeletionConstraintExceptionBean bean = new DeletionConstraintExceptionBean();

    /**
     * Constructs a new exception with null as its detail message.
     * The cause is not initialized.
     */
    public DeletionConstraintException() {
        super();
    }

    /**
     * Constructs a new exception with a pre-defined detail message that
     * includes the given parameter values. This constructor is used when an
     * object cannot be deleted because other objects depend on it.
     *
     * @param classEnum
     *            a classEnum specifying the type of the object
     *            which cannot be deleted
     * @param businessKey
     *            the business key of the object which cannot be deleted
     * @param dependentClassEnum
     *            a classEnum specifying the type of the object
     *            which depends on the object to delete and prevents the
     *            operation
     */
    public DeletionConstraintException(ClassEnum classEnum, String businessKey,
            ClassEnum dependentClassEnum) {
        super(generateMessage(classEnum, dependentClassEnum), classEnum,
                businessKey);
        setDependentDomClass(dependentClassEnum);
    }

    /**
     * Constructs a new exception with the specified detail message. The cause
     * is not initialized.
     *
     * @param message
     *            the detail message
     */
    public DeletionConstraintException(String message) {
        super(message);
    }

    /**
     * Constructs a new exception with the specified detail message and bean for
     * JAX-WS exception serialization.
     *
     * @param message
     *            the detail message
     * @param bean
     *            the bean for JAX-WS exception serialization
     */
    public DeletionConstraintException(String message,
            DeletionConstraintExceptionBean bean) {
        super(message, bean);
        this.bean = bean;
    }

    /**
     * Constructs a new exception with the specified detail message, cause, and
     * bean for JAX-WS exception serialization.
     *
     * @param message
     *            the detail message
     * @param bean
     *            the bean for JAX-WS exception serialization
     * @param cause
     *            the cause
     */
    public DeletionConstraintException(String message,
            DeletionConstraintExceptionBean bean, Throwable cause) {
        super(message, bean, cause);
        this.bean = bean;
    }

    private static String generateMessage(ClassEnum domClassEnum,
            ClassEnum dependentDomClassEnum) {
        return "Cannot delete an object of class '" + domClassEnum.toString()
                + "' as long as it uses an object in the class '"
                + dependentDomClassEnum.toString() + "'";
    }

    /**
     * Returns the type of an object that depends on the object to delete and
     * prevents the operation.
     *
     * @return the type of the dependent object
     */
    public ClassEnum getDependentDomClass() {
        return bean.getDependentClassEnum();
    }

    /**
     * Sets the type of an object that depends on the object to delete and
     * prevents the operation.
     *
     * @param dependentClassEnum
     *            the type of the dependent object
     */
    public void setDependentDomClass(ClassEnum dependentClassEnum) {
        bean.setDependentClassEnum(dependentClassEnum);
    }

    /* javadoc will be copied from super class */
    @Override
    public DeletionConstraintExceptionBean getFaultInfo() {
        return new DeletionConstraintExceptionBean(super.getFaultInfo(),
                bean.getDependentClassEnum());
    }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


The Fifth Street purposed changes need to be looked at from a resident's view and not from just a couple people.
First, do we as Delphos residents want the change? Do we need a bike trail on one of the busiest streets in Delphos. For our town, we have a working system, Historically the city has plowed the snow to the middle of the street and eventually came back and hauled it off. It didn't bother anybody there.
Delphos has five community parks consisting of 110 total acres. I could see putting a paved bike trail from one to the other connecting them all together and when crossing 5th Street, it be at an intersection with a light.
All delivery trucks at Jim's restaurant unload from the street. Losing that one lane, How safe is that? Is it their intent to put them out of business because of delivery problems?
Delphos is a farm community. Especially at planting and harvest time, it is common to see large farm equipment going east or west thru town. Again I say we have a system that works for us. Don't change it. What works in another city doesn't mean it is good for us.
Do a google search of "Problems with road Diets".
Farmers, truck drivers, local businessman, township trustees, and residents, you are invited to attend the town council meeting on Feb 4th at 7 p.m. The safety service director of Delphos will be reading his report on the 5th Street status. After that meeting everyone is invited out to the Eagles for fellowship and conversation.


Lifeline 4.0 Liter Mechanical Steel BOTTLE ONLY. All Lifeline fire extinguishers have a 10 year life span. So if your extinguisher has passed this life, it can no longer be serviced. Rather than buying a complete new kit, you can simply replace the bottle and utilize all of your existing parts, the bracket, straps, tubing, etc. to save you time and money.
The Bottle weighs 6.4kgs when full, bottle length is 334mm with a diameter of 155mm. The bottle is manufactured from Steel. Complete bottle diagrams and system requirements can be found on the 4.0L AFFF Mech Steel System page by clicking on the DATA button.
Note: Bottle only and does not include bracket as pictured.
Note: Filled and pressurized systems/bottles cannot be shipped via Air/Expedited services such as UPS Next Day, 2nd Day, and 3 Day Select. All filled and charge bottles and systems will be shipped UPS ground service to the delivery address selected regardless of the delivery method selected in check out.


You'll never believe the first ingredient in Garden Lites Banana Chocolate Chip Muffins is zucchini! Heat in the microwave to enjoy a deliciously rich experience for only 120 calories.
MICROWAVE (RECOMMENDED): Pop in the microwave to get that freshly-baked taste!
IF DEFROSTED: Heat muffin in bag on high for approximately 10 seconds.
IF FROZEN: Heat muffin in bag on high for approximately 35 seconds.
CAUTION: BAG WILL BE HOT!
Microwave times are based on a 1000 watt oven and may vary due to wattage.
Our muffins taste great at room temperature, just defrost muffin at room temp for 4 hours and enjoy!
ZUCCHINI, EGG WHITES, SUGAR, WHOLE EGGS, OATS (CERTIFIED GLUTEN FREE), SEMI-SWEET CHOCOLATE CHIPS (ORGANIC CANE SUGAR, UNSWEETENED CHOCOLATE, COCOA BUTTER), BANANA, SORGHUM FLOUR, BROWN RICE FLOUR, CORN STARCH, SOLUBLE CORN FIBER, LEAVENING (BAKING POWDER), CANOLA OIL, FLAXSEED MEAL, NATURAL BANANA FLAVOR, SALT, NATURAL VANILLA FLAVOR.
These are my favorite flavor muffins from The Health Food Store! BEST part of the day, delicious like home made but healthier!
I eat one of these or one of the blueberry muffins every day for breakfast.
Great, healthy snack for the kids and us.


Egypt and Russia are expected to sign an array of agreements next week, including a deal to establish a Russian industrial zone in the Suez Canal area, the Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Industry stated on Sunday.
A Russian delegation headed by the Minister of Trade and Industry Denis Manturov is scheduled to meet its Egyptian counterpart on January 31 through February 2.
Representatives from 60 major companies interested in energy and transport infrastructure will be part of the Russian delegation.
"A number of protocols of understanding will be signed, the most important of which will be the signing of a protocol on the establishment of a Russian industrial zone in the Suez Canal area," the ministry statement read.
During the Russian visit to Egypt, several agreements are due to be signed, including a memorandum of understanding between the Russian Direct Investment Fund and several Egyptian commercial banks as part of the creation of an Egyptian investment fund worth USD 5 billion. A business forum is also scheduled to take place to provide the different parties with an opportunity to discuss ideas and further opportunities for cooperation.
With the participation of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and the United Arab Emirates, the fund is anticipated to "invest in the construction of subways, a railway line, a logistics center and a tourist hub," government-owned Russian news agency TASS reported.
Growing as two of Egypt's biggest economically backing countries, the UAE and the Russian Direct Investment Fund have shown interest in making joint investments in the construction of so-called grain elevators in Egypt, which can increase effectiveness in the agricultural process of harvesting.
Kirill Dmitriyev, the Fund's CEO, has said that Egypt is losing as much as 30 percent of grain due to poor harvesting infrastructure. "That is why the subject of grain elevators is very topical. It will help the agrarian sector to be more efficient," he said.
Dmitriyev added that the Fund is also investigating the possibilities to establish Russian car production in Egypt.
In 2014, Russian president Vladimir Putin and Egypt's Abdel Fattah al-Sisi agreed to create a Russian industrial zone in Egypt as part of the implementation of the New Suez Canal megaproject, which was initiated by president Sisi.
Since the July 2013 ouster of former president Mohamad Morsi by then-defense minister Sisi, Egypt and Russia have significantly increased cooperation in a number of fields.
It wasn't until 2014 that the two countries signed trade agreements worth USD 4.5 billion – an increase by 80 percent compared to 2013. Furthermore, the growing bilateral trade manifested in Egypt's reliance on Russia for a quarter of its wheat imports – which is a significant proportion considering that Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat.
As part of Egypt's efforts to increase electricity generation – which for long has been a big problem – Putin and Sisi announced in 2015 Russian-Egyptian cooperation to build a nuclear power plant in Egypt, in addition to boosting natural gas trade between the countries.
On the military front, Egypt has recently sought to diversify its sources of military equipment and Russia has become one of the main partners in that endeavor.
Russian sales to Egypt of Mig-29 fighter jets, Molnya missile corvette, Tor and Buk surface-to-air missile launchers, Antey-2500 surface to air missile systems, and most recently 46 Ka-52K attack helicopters reflect the two countries' growing military cooperation.
Despite Egypt's economically shaky position and its continuous efforts to fight off terrorism internally and in neighboring countries, both countries consider the growing ties as mutually beneficial. On the one hand, Russia needs to secure its strategic position in the Middle East in the event of its ally Syria falling into rebel hands. And amid increasing international isolation over its involvement in the eastern Ukraine conflict the country needs powerful allies such as Egypt.
Meanwhile, as Egypt has been under increasing international pressure to improve its human rights situation since 2013, Russia has been silent on that issue – a position that Egypt welcomes.