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Megan Hansen
Memories of mom's cooking run deep for Marin residents
May 3, 2016 at 3:16 p.m.
Standing in her kitchen, Mary Kay Sweeney only has to glance around to be reminded of the lavish meals her mother Mercedes Sweeney once made for her family. For on...
The Set List: Kick-back way to watch the Grateful Dead this week
There's never any shortage of great live music to be had in Marin County, but sometimes the best of the best isn't live at all. It's live-streamed, and Dead.This weekend...
Enforcement of massage ordinance drives 11 illicit businesses out of San Rafael
Since embarking on a quest in 2013 to shutdown sex parlors posing as massage business, San Rafael officials have driven 11 suspected illicit businesses out of the city. When the...
Naming contest underway for screech owl at WildCare in San Rafael
WildCare's newest wildlife ambassador is less than a foot tall, but she's a big deal when it comes to helping educate the public about Marin County owls.Specialists at the animal...
Construction of new Bon Air Bridge in Larkspur set to begin in June
Construction is anticipated to begin next month on a $16 million project to replace the 57-year-old Bon Air Bridge in Larkspur with a new precast concrete girder bridge. Key components...
Las Gallinas sewer board eyes rate increases for San Rafael customers
Sewer rates are on the rise in San Rafael, where the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District is trying to stay off the state's noncompliance list by embarking on a $33...
Mill Valley cat undergoes rare surgery at UC Davis to repair life-threatening heart defect
It took five top-notch doctors to surgically repair her rare congenital heart defect, but Vanilla Bean the Burmese cat from Mill Valley is expected to make a full recovery.After the...
Movers & Shakers: Corte Madera accountant receives honorary doctorate from Golden Gate University
Christian Frederiksen, a Corte Madera certified public accountant and business adviser, received an honorary doctorate this month from his alma mater of Golden Gate University in San Francisco.Frederiksen graduated from...
Mill Valley adopts controversial housing element
Mill Valley has reduced the number of housing units in its housing element update, taking to heart residents' concerns about overbuilding in the city of nearly 14,000 residents.Spurred by local...
Historical artifacts return to Marin History Museum from auction firm
Eighty-seven of Marin's historical artifacts have been returned to the Marin History Museum after being sold to a Sacramento auction firm, but the museum's activities remain slightly shrouded in mystery....


Two massive media mergers that could be completed this year might have the Cubs in the right place at the right time to capitalize on the "game-changer" TV-rights deal business operations president Crane Kenney has talked about for years.
"It's a great time to be us," Kenney said Saturday, outlining how the pending AT&T-Time Warner and Disney-Fox mergers might affect the Cubs' ability to optimize bidding for broadcast and streaming rights starting in 2020.
Cubs business president Crane Kenney.
Kenney said the streaming distribution platforms such as Amazon and Facebook also are part of a market for Cubs rights that has grown dramatically just in the past year.
If the Cubs are successful, it could have a domino effect in the market, with Kenney saying the team is "probably 80 percent inclined" to leave its NBC Sports Chicago partnership with the Bulls, Blackhawks and White Sox.
υ Two new elevators by Opening Day and eight new concession stands by the end of July are scheduled for 2018, as are bigger dugouts pushed farther down both lines and full-size batting cages.


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'Girls' Tackles Being Not Being an American Bitch
By Genevieve Burgess | Think Pieces | February 27, 2017 |
Girls is a frequent internet punching bag for good reason; most of the lead characters are narcissistic in the extreme, the narrative seems very self-serving for Lena Dunham, and the vision of being a young person in New York is clearly skewed by her privilege. But sometimes, every so often, the show hits something bang on the head in a way that gets my blood pressure up and stays with me long after the credits roll. The third episode of the final season, "American Bitch" is one of those episodes. In it, Hannah meets a personal hero of hers who contacted her after she wrote about allegations that he was involved in not-entirely-consensual encounters with college students while on a book tour. The push and pull between Hannah and the fictional Chuck Palmer at first seems tilted towards a "gray area" reading where we'll never know the actual truth, but at the end it cannonballs to a conclusion that feels wholly inevitable and frighteningly relatable.
As a young woman, I am familiar with the moments when it becomes apparent that you and the person you are having a conversation with view the conversation in very different lights. When you are expressing your passion and interest in a topic without inhibition, and the person listening to you is not listening to your words but seeing only your passion and believing that they are the focus of it rather than simply the impetus for you expressing that passion. You don't have the position to understand that just because someone you admire, someone likely in a position of power and influence, expresses physical desire for you it doesn't mean that you've invited that attention. After all, they're so smart and interesting, you admire them SO MUCH, they must be more perceptive than you. They must understand more of the world than you do. They're probably right that you want this to happen. After all, why else would you be so interested in impressing them? Isn't admiration an attraction of a kind? Isn't this the most intimate kind of connection two people can have?
The men willing to exploit these situations like to pretend that they don't understand this. That's because they're not as physically attractive, or because once upon a time a woman turned them down in a particularly cruel way, that they can't POSSIBLY take advantage of anyone. Matthew Rhys as Chuck Palmer played this part perfectly, being at once arrogant in his appeal and also self-deprecating in his perception of himself in relation to the women he was engaging with. He had my shoulders around my ears from about a minute after he started talking to Hannah. Those sorts of men pretend not to notice the eyes darting down and away, or the shoulders that tense when you touch them, or the hesitation before agreeing to a drink. They pretend that a 20-year-old who's been reading their work for years, or listening to them all semester, or working for them for months, has as much experience and perspective on the world as they do. That piecing out their compliments and flattery just as it's becoming apparent that the young woman across from them may be getting it into her head to leave isn't calculating. They decide that there can't be a power imbalance because, after all, she can always just say no. And of course they'd respect a clear "no" but an "isn't it getting late?" or "I think I should go" isn't really no. If she suggests that the office door stay open, or you meet in a more public place, or that she's uncomfortable with another drink, they'd be extremely affronted at the implication, which invites sympathy, acquiescence, and even a little shame for thinking so poorly of someone so nice. All of which just serves to make the situation less clear.
This is how it worked for Hannah. Palmer was able to get her engaged with him about his work, and then her writing, which he kept complimenting just as it seemed she had made up her mind about him, until it felt like her presence in his bedroom and their interaction there was just as much her fault as it was his. But it wasn't. Hannah was invited in to a space where Chuck Palmer had more authority and power, where everything around her was designed to reinforce this. He dangled compliments and gifts in front of her, made her feel important that it was only HER who could really understand him, and then as she was relaxing and opening up to him about their shared love of writing, out comes his penis. It was never a matter of "if" that would happen, only a question of "when." And he can make all the same "gray area" arguments that he was spewing before, and even add on top that given Hannah's familiarity with the other accusations, wouldn't she have known better? That knowledge and shame will keep Hannah from going public with her experience. It may even keep her from trying to raise up the voice of the next woman who does, since Palmer could throw an accusation back at her. And this is why the episode ends with a line of young women headed into Palmer's building as Hannah walks away in disgust. And all of them, every single one, will walk away with a new bitterness about the world, a new cynicism about the intentions of men, and a little less willingness to trust the next man who asks it of them. As much as Hannah might say she wants someone to write a book about what a bitch she was, when her moment came she didn't know what to do. Hannah Horvath might not be the voice of her generation, but seeing her without a voice last night is something that will resonate with millions of women.
Briefly, on Denzel vs. Affleck at the Oscars
Don't Feel Bad For Lin-Manuel Miranda, Because Jay-Z Is Producing His Movie Musical
Genevieve Burgess is a Features Contributor for Pajiba. You can follow Genevieve Burgess on Twitter.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


THE proposed-university of the Western Pacific is a "ministerial commitment" from the Prime Minister Peter O'Neill and will be completed in 2017.
Higher Education, Research, Science and Technology Minister Malakai Tabar said that when asked to give an update on the progress.
"The designs and the planning are already completed but we are still going on with some process at the moment," Tabar said.
He said the planning and designs had gone through the Central Supply and Tenders Board and once a contractor was secured and the land bought, ground work would start.
He was not able to disclose the total cost of construction saying it was too early and confidential.


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Research Labs Renovation – Walter Reed Army Institute of Research
(Forest Glen, MD)
KB renovated approximately 40 Research Labs and offices in Building 503 at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, known as WRAIR. This project was completed in a series of phases that allowed the research missions at WRAIR to continue without KB construction activities interrupting or jeopardizing their research. More than 25 phases in total were initiated to accommodate laboratory availability. KB took painstaking steps to phase and schedule the renovation of the Research Labs so there would be no displacement of staff while we made renovations to the various rooms. Prior to demolition, maximum airflow readings at diffusers, grilles and fume hoods were measured by KB, recorded and submitted to the client to determine base line lab conditions once renovations were completed.
Several items were reused as part of our sustainable renovation efforts, including cabinets and counters. The labs themselves were all given similar casework finishes, ceiling grid and tile, and matching ceiling modifications to supply/return air grilles. Select ductwork was demolished and replaced, and diffusers, grilles, and thermostats reused to the greatest extent possible. New diffusers and grilles were also added to serve the new Research Labs layout.
KB was also tasked within this project to construct a cold room/freezer lab on the ground floor of the building, which required new mechanical and dry-type fire protection systems to support the constant temperatures needed in those areas. At the conclusion of the project KB was able to provide modernized Research Labs for Building 503 at Walter Reed with a more streamlined floor layout for staff that allowed WRAIR staff to conduct research.
BSL3 Lab Renovation – Walter Reed Army Institute of Research
Necropsy Room
(Fort Detrick, MD)
BSL4 Lab Renovation


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John Dolan: from homeless addict to street artist and author
Patrick Barkham
Aged 10, John Dolan was told a family secret, which set him on the road to crime, addiction and homelessness. Now his life is transformed, thanks to his dog, George, and a gift for drawing
John Dolan and his dog, George, in east London. Photograph: David Levene for the Guardian
@patrick_barkham
Sat 19 Jul 2014 02.00 EDT
Anyone who has strolled down Shoreditch High Street in east London in the past few years will probably have seen John Dolan drawing, with a cup for coins on the pavement beside his dog. A tourist from New Zealand browsing an art gallery nearby is typical of many of us: she stops in surprise when she sees a sketch by Dolan on display. "I saw this guy in the street the other day, just opposite," she says. "I wish I'd stopped now and talked to him."
Dolan, until recently a homeless heroin addict, is now a "famous artist" as he puts it when he rushes into the Howard Griffin gallery, soaking from the rain. He has a sellout exhibition, a second just opened and a new memoir, which could become a bestseller. As he is well aware, the interest in his intricate drawings of London buildings, and of his dog, George, is piqued by his remarkable change of fortune. This poses two questions: where did it all go wrong, and where did it all go right? The answers, as many people find, are bound up with family.
Unusually, however, one member of Dolan's family is particularly crucial: his dog, George.
Dolan's life has been transformed since Richard Howard-Griffin, a street art devotee and gallery owner put on an exhibition of Dolan's drawings last autumn. But Dolan, a charming and rather delicate man, is still shaped by his past. Most of his teeth are missing and he carries the vulnerability of someone in the early stage of recovering from many traumas.
Surprisingly, perhaps, his early childhood was happy. The son of Gerry, a dustman, and Dot, a cleaner, he grew up in a council flat within sight of St Paul's. His brothers, David and Malcolm, and sisters, Jackie and Marilyn, were much older, and Dolan was a cheeky youngest child, spoilt with toys, sweets and comics, which he would spend hours trying to copy, drawing in his bedroom.
Then, aged 10, his world was turned upside down. Gerry, his authoritarian but loving father, abruptly told him that his parents were in fact his grandparents: his "sister", Marilyn, was his biological mother; his father a lad called Jimmy he had met once or twice. "I think I was too young to be told that, and it knocked me for six, it really did," says Dolan. "It had a huge impact on me. I went right off the rails. I was a proper problem child."
Dolan remembers telling himself that nothing would change and outwardly it didn't: Dot and Gerry were still his mum and dad and Marilyn remained a distant figure. But Dolan's cheekiness became delinquency. He was obese – 13 stone, when he was nine – and bullied at school. "I hated school, absolutely hated it."
So he began to play truant, sniffing glue, throwing milk bottles from tower blocks, getting chased by police. Faced with this misbehaviour, Gerry threatened to put him in a children's home or send him to live with Jimmy, Dolan's biological father. Dolan had met "Uncle Jimmy" and he was fine, but those threats "had a huge impact on me, more than I realised then".
The art teacher was the only person at school who had time for Dolan and he left without any qualifications. He got occasional work for Jimmy Dolan's secondhand office furniture business but never found what Dot and Gerry called a proper job. "I didn't have the confidence to get myself a job," he says. "I fell into a heavy depression."
He also fell into six months at Feltham young offenders' institution: a fat petty thief, who forged signatures in savings books, was shoved alongside murderers and gangsters. When he came out, Dot and Gerry wouldn't take him back. He was homeless. He took up burglary, targeting commercial properties ("I wouldn't ever break into anyone's house"). West End sandwich shops on a Sunday night with a weekend's takings in the till were particularly profitable.
"My criminality was rife," he says.
Dot and Gerry's home was repeatedly raided by the police and not long after one raid, Dot died of cancer. Gerry never really forgave Dolan – "He always said if it had never happened she might still be here now" – but the older man needed help and Dolan moved home.
Grieving and lonely, Gerry raged at Dolan – "You useless piece of shit." He was typical of his generation, "A real shouter and growler," says Dolan. "He used to really tear into me. He shattered my confidence. By the time I was in my late 20s, I was a wreck."
According to Dolan, one of his brothers recently said he blamed Gerry for the Dolan's delinquency. After a decade in and out of prison and now abused by his angry, ailing grandfather, Dolan sank deeper into depression and tried heroin. "It was like someone was giving me the biggest hug I'd ever had in my entire life," he writes in his memoirs. "I hate to say it," he tells me, "but for the first few years the class-A drug use really did help my depression but in a negative way – I became addicted and it came to rule my life."
When Gerry died in 1997, all Dolan's family, except his sister Jackie, severed contact. Dolan became homeless again when he failed to pay his rent and by 2009 had more than 300 convictions, 30 stints in prison and an arthritic ankle. He got a council bedsit and then George, a young Staffordshire bull terrier, entered his life. Dolan had befriended a young homeless couple and when they were offered a flat they had to give up George, acquired when a drunk had swapped him for a strong can of lager.
John Dolan, aged five - he grew up in Islington, north London.
Dolan was terrified to be entrusted with George, his first ever responsibility. "How was I going to cope with him? I couldn't even cope with myself," he says. But he'd loved the family dog, Butch, as a boy, and he noticed how George always looked him in the eye when he talked. They bonded and Dolan had a stark realisation: if he went to prison again, he would lose George. So he gave up crime. "It was only because I had the animal and he's a responsibility," he says, stroking George. "He's like my child in a sense and I feel obliged to keep a roof over his head and keep him warm."
Unlikely to ever find a job, he felt, Dolan decided to try begging. "I threw on an old jacket, just for the fun of it." He pauses. "I found it really tough and degrading."
But he hit on a winning sales technique: placing the cup in front of a charming (now well-trained) dog. You're not stupid, I joke. "And I don't claim to be," laughs Dolan. Then he started drawing again. "Sitting there holding out my hand was so embarrassing, so degrading. I didn't like to look at people as they went past. I picked up the pen mainly so I could bury my head in a drawing pad." He started drawing the buildings opposite, over and over again, to recapture and improve his childhood skill. It took him about three months "to get into a groove" and then he started selling his drawings to passers-by for a few quid.
He was commissioned to do some drawings for a book, Shoreditch Unbound, alongside other local residents such as Tracey Emin and Gilbert and George. Eventually, a gallery director, Richard Howard-Griffin, asked if he would draw some large streetscapes for him. "Griff" had the smart idea to invite other street artists, including ROA and Thierry Noir (who drew on the Berlin Wall) to draw on Dolan's pictures. These collaborations sold for £50,000.
In the run-up to last autumn's exhibition, Dolan finally visited a doctor, obtained a prescription and weaned himself off heroin. Going through withdrawal was "the most painful thing I've been through", he writes. Does he worry he might relapse, especially now he has money? "It's easy to go back to it but you've got to not want to go back to it. No positives will come from taking it, no matter how much money you've got," he says. "Not that I've got much."
Dolan's pre-exhibition nerves were greater than most. He invited his family and hoped to see them for the first time in years. "I owe my family an apology for the way I grew up," he says. "Finally succeeding and having a show was a 'sorry' to my family and my parents who brought me up so lovingly and responsibly."
He was delighted that Jackie, Malcolm and David all showed up with their families. In the months since, he has seen them "all the time" and has especially appreciated spending time with Malcolm. "He was the one who hated my guts the most because he was the closest to my mum, my nan," he says.
What about his biological parents? Although he hasn't had direct contact with Jimmy recently, Jimmy posted a nice, rather sad message below an online interview with Dolan: "hello john good to c u getting on well take care dad."
Dolan is not in touch with his biological mother, Marilyn. "She's had her chance," he says quietly. Is he angry with her? "It is what it is. She was a product of her time, a young girl growing up in the 60s. She was a teenager, she made a mistake. I don't hold it against her."
At the heart of Dolan's family is George. "I feel like he's a guardian angel. If it hadn't been for him I'd have never picked up my pen," he says, stroking his companion.
George is seven now, and looks in excellent shape, as does Dolan who has joined a gym although he hasn't yet plucked up the courage to go.
John Dolan is famous in east London, does charity work for the Big Issue Foundation and Unicef and is off to Los Angeles for another exhibition (he's only been abroad twice, to Bologne and Amsterdam). What about the big-budget movie? One Hollywood producer has already offered "stupid money". And? "He didn't offer us enough," says Dolan with a grin.
He is ambitious for his art but rather more cautious about his personal life. Would he like a girlfriend and children? "I've not long come off the streets. My old way of life has only just changed," he says carefully. "A girlfriend in time, I can see that happening."
Given his success, I'm surprised that he still sits on the street and draws. He is happier than ever and yet he admits his story is not quite happy-ever-after. "I suffer depression really badly and sometimes I just have a bad day and I need to get out of the flat – get some fresh air and see people." Does he like himself more now? He pauses. "A little bit," he says. "But I've got to get my teeth fixed. Next chance I get, I'm going to get that done."
John Dolan's exhibition, John and George, is at the Howard Griffin Gallery London E1, until 17 August, howardgriffingallery.com.
Parents and parenting
Grandparents and grandparenting
Art and design books


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Q: how do i get library path in MacOS? I write a program and i view the dependent libraries, it show in '/usr/lib/', but there is not exists.
$ otool -L test
test:
/usr/lib/libiconv.2.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 7.0.0)

but, it don't exists:
$ ls /usr/lib/libiconv.2.dylib
ls: /usr/lib/libiconv.2.dylib: No such file or directory

A: maybe the name of the library in your device is different, just open the terminal and write :
cd library
then write :
pwd
then you will get a library path.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Columbia Pictures's "The Walk," the new motion picture event from Academy Award® winner Robert Zemeckis, will be shown in IMAX 3D cinemas in the Philippines starting October 14, simultaneous with big-screen digital 3D and 2D theaters across the country. Watch the film's IMAX trailer below.
Greg Foster, Senior Executive Vice President of IMAX Corp. and CEO of IMAX Entertainment, said, "We're excited to be part of Sony's release for `The Walk,' which was designed for and makes brilliant use of IMAX 3D. No one understands IMAX better than our longtime partner Bob Zemeckis – he is an artistic genius who uses all of his expertise to give audiences an edge-of-your-seat thrill that will make moviegoers feel like they are out on the tightrope themselves. We're excited that our audiences will have the chance to see it first."


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Vezeeta appoints new Chief Providers Officer to drive innovation within the Middle East and African healthcare ecosystem
LATEST NEWS, NEWS October 17, 2021October 16, 2021 News
Today, Vezeeta announced the appointment of Choucri Asmar, the former founding executive of AXA Africa Health as its new Chief Providers Officer, Customer and Experience.
In his new role, Choucri will now lead Vezeeta's clinical network across the Middle East and Africa region and empower healthcare providers and entities to offer exceptional patient experiences.
With more than 15 years of experience in leading digital and operational transformation across varied sectors in Egypt, Choucri has a solid track record in successfully building and scaling businesses to offer exceptional value to customers. In his most recent role, as the Chief Client Officer at AXA, he helped shape the company's success in Egypt, first as a leading insurance provider and then as a primary and secondary healthcare provider network with the launch of AXA OneHealth. OneHealth is a passion project of Choucri designed to simplify customers centric healthcare journeys through digitalization, high quality standards and cross-industry partnerships.
"Choucri's integrity, his empathy and deep understanding of the needs and pains of the communities we serve, coupled with his extensive experience within the sector make him the perfect match for Vezeeta. We are proud to have a disciplined leader of his caliber join us as we continue to innovate and build the very best of experiences for patients, providers, and the healthcare ecosystem at-large," said Amir Barsoum, Founder and CEO of Vezeeta.
"From the outside looking in, I could see the unrivaled ability of Vezeeta to successfully integrate quality healthcare journeys with robust digital experiences and solutions" Choucri Asmar said. "I look forward to working with Amir and the team to support a healthcare ecosystem that offers value-driven solutions to all healthcare stakeholders and elevates millions of customers' healthcare experience across Vezeeta's strong footprint," he added.
Prior to joining the AXA Group in 2015, Choucri served as the Strategy and PMO lead at Mondelez International and held the role of Regional Suppliers Manager at AstraZeneca in Middle East and Africa. Today, he continues to volunteer as the President of the Heliopolis Heritage Foundation, an NGO dedicated to restoring and protecting the Egyptian suburb. Choucri holds an MBA from Université Panthéon-Sorbonne and a bachelor's degree in Economics from Cairo University.
The new appointment comes at a pivotal moment in Vezeeta's journey, as it cements its position as the largest health-tech platform in emerging markets and sets its sights on global expansion and leadership. Vezeeta's booking platform is set to extend its reach across Southeast Asia, starting with Pakistan, whereas its latest B2B SaaS solution, focused on empowering healthcare entities and providers with the platform's streamlined healthcare experiences is poised to launch across North and South America, starting with the United States.
About Vezeeta
Vezeeta is the largest health-tech platform in the emerging markets, that is transforming healthcare accessibility across the Middle East and Africa region, and beyond. We are trusted by patients, doctors, leading pharma companies, and medical insurance providers to facilitate access to healthcare. With a network of over 35,000 doctors across 78 cities in 6 countries, Vezeeta is changing the lives of 10 million and more patients across the region.
To learn more about Vezeeta, visit the website or download the app.
Carnegie Mellon Qatar welcomes new faculty
Fintech platform Ryalize appoints Suhail Algosaibi as Chairman to drive GCC and MENA expansion


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The end of world population growth
Wolfgang Lutz1,
Warren Sanderson1,2 &
Sergei Scherbov3
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting1, here we show that there is around an 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.
A kabuli chickpea ideotype
Tuba Eker
, Duygu Sari
… Cengiz Toker
Scientific Reports Open Access 31 January 2022
only $3.90 per issue
Figure 2: Forecasted distributions of world population sizes (fractiles).
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. & Scherbov, S. Doubling of world population unlikely. Nature 387, 803–805 (1997).
Article ADS CAS Google Scholar
United Nations. Long-Range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision (United Nations, New York, ESA/P/WP.153, 1999).
O'Neill, B. C., Scherbov, S. & Lutz, W. The long-term effect of the timing of fertility decline on population size. Pop. Dev. Rev. 25, 749–756 (1999).
US Census Bureau. International Database 10 May 200 edition 〈http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html〉 (US Census Bureau, 2000).
World Bank. World Development Indicators (CD-ROM) (World Bank, Washington DC, 2000).
Tuljapurkar, S., Li, N. & Boe, C. A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries. Nature 405, 789–792 (2000).
Vaupel, J. W. & Lundström, H. in The Future Population of the World. What Can We Assume Today? (ed. Lutz, W.) rev. edn, 278–295 (Earthscan, London, 1996).
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. & Scherbov, S. in The Future Population of the World: What Can We Assume Today? (ed. Lutz, W.) rev. edn, 397–385 (Earthscan, London, 1996).
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. C. & Scherbov, S. in Frontiers of Population Forecasting (eds Lutz, W., Vaupel, J. W. & Ahlburg, D. A.; Pop. Dev. Rev. Suppl. 24, 1998) 139–155 (Population Council, New York, 1999).
Lee, R. D. in Frontiers of Population Forecasting (eds Lutz, W., Vaupel, J. W. & Ahlburg, D. A.; Pop. Dev. Rev. Suppl. 24, 1998) 156–190 (Population Council, New York, 1999).
Bongaarts, J. & Bulatao, R A. (eds) Beyond Six Billion. Forecasting the World's Population (National Academy Press, Washington DC, 2000).
Lutz, W. (ed.) The Future Population of the World. What Can We Assume Today? rev. edn (Earthscan, London,, 1996).
Lee, R. & Tuljapurkar, S. Stochaistic population projections for the United States: Beyond high, medium and low. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 89, 1175–1189 (1994).
Lee, R. D. & Carter, L. Modeling and forecasting the time series of U.S. mortality. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 87, 659–671 (1992).
MATH Google Scholar
Alho, J. M. Stochastic methods in population forecasting. Int. J. Forecast. 6, 521–530 (1990).
Lutz, W. & Scherbov, S. An expert-based framework for probabilistic national population projections: The example of Austria. Eur. J. Pop. 14, 1–17 (1998).
Alho, J. M. Scenarios, uncertainty and conditional forecasts of the world population. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A 160, 71–85 (1997).
Keilman, N. in Frontiers of Population Forecasting (eds Lutz, W., Vaupel, J. W. & Ahlburg, D. A.; Pop. Dev. Rev. Suppl. 24, 1998) 15–41 (Population Council, New York, 1999).
Stoto, M. The accuracy of population projections. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78, 13–20 (1983).
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson
Departments of Economics and History, State University of New York at Stony Brook, New York, 11794-4384, USA
Warren Sanderson
University of Groningen, PO Box 800, Groningen, NL-9700 AV, The Netherlands
Sergei Scherbov
Correspondence to Wolfgang Lutz.
Documentation and Sensitivity Analyses
The central finding of this study is that there is a high probability that the world's population growth will come to an end in this century. In Section 1, we state the statistical model that we use. In Section 2, we discuss different possible correlations (autocorrelation, correlations between deviations in fertility and life expectancy and correlations across regions) and show the results of sensitivity analyses and their implications on our central finding. In Section 3 we deal with the issue of possible baseline errors in both the size of the starting population and the starting level of fertility.
1. The Statistical Model
It is accepted procedure to create population forecasts from an initial distribution of the population by age and sex and forecasts of total fertility rates (TFR), life expectancies at birth, and net migration. Probabilistic population forecasts differ from deterministic forecasts in that they deal with the uncertainty of the course of future rates and therefore must specify future total fertility rates, life expectancies, and net migration as distributions and not as points. Distributions can also be used to deal with other uncertainties such as those relating to the base population size.
In order to generate the required distributions, let v be the total fertility rate, the change in life expectancy at birth, or net migration to be forecasted for periods 1 through T and vt be its forecasted value at time t. We express vt as the sum of two terms, its mean at time t, v̅t and its deviation from the mean at time t, εt. In other words, vt = v̅t + εt . The v̅t are chosen based on the arguments given in the text of the paper. The εt term is assumed to be a normally distributed random variable with mean zero and standard deviation σ(εt). The σ(εt) are also based on arguments in the text.
Because of the persistence of the factors represented by the εt, we would generally expect them to be autocorrelated. One of the most commonly used methods of specifying how the εt term evolves over time is the simple autoregressive formation (AR(1)), where εt = α · εt-1 + ut , where ut is an independently distributed normal random variable with mean zero and standard deviation σ(u). Another commonly used method is the moving average formation of order q, MA(q) where q is the number of lagged terms in the moving average. We use the following moving average specification:
, where ut-i are independently distributed standard normal random variables. To ensure that the standard deviation of εt is equal to its pre-specified value, we set the . Note that εt depends on q+1 random terms.
The choice between AR(1) and MA(q) does not have to do with estimation, but rather with representation. Data do not exist that would allow the estimation of the parameters of either specification at the regional level required in the paper. Neither is more theoretically correct than the other. Both are just approximations to a far more complex reality. When comparably parameterized, they produce very similar distributions of εt (see Figures 1 and 2).
The choice between the two, therefore, rests on which more accurately reflects arguments concerning the future. From our perspective, the moving average approach has the advantage that the σ(εt) terms appear explicitly making it easier to translate ideas about the future into that specification.
We generate correlated random numbers for each forecast year. Fertility and life expectancy change deviations (ε t) from pre-specified mean paths can be correlated across regions or fertility and life expectancy change deviations can be correlated with one another within a region. Suppose that we were interested in R correlated states (regions or vital rates). Let et ( et,1, …, e t,R) be a column vector of the R autocorrelated values of e at time t generated as above, but under the assumption that σ(et,j) is 1.0. Let V be the assumed variance-covariance matrix for the R states. We call the Cholesky decomposition of V, C. We compute a column vector εt (εt,1,…,ε t,R) from the equation et = C ' · et .
2. Sensitivity Analysis of the Implications of Various Correlations
The future levels of vital rates that enter the simulations can be correlated in different ways. Most important are (a) the correlations between deviations from assumed average trends in fertility and life expectancy, (b) the autocorrelation of deviations within each series of vital rates and (c) the correlations among the deviations from the average vital rate trends in different world regions.
Since the assumed signs and degrees of correlations do influence the results to varying degrees it is important to explicitly address the issue and discuss the implications for the validity of our central findings.
2.a Correlations Between Fertility and Life Expectancy Deviations
In our earlier work,1 we discussed the impact of two different intraregional correlations over time between fertility deviations and deviations in the change in life expectancy at birth on the assumption of zero correlation both between the deviations in fertility levels and between the deviations in changes in life expectancies across regions. In the terminology of that paper, we considered correlations between fertility and mortality deviations of 0.0 and 1.0. In the terminology of the current paper, where we consider correlations between total fertility rates deviations and life expectancy change deviations, the correlations are 0.0 and –1.0. Compared to a correlation of 0.0, the correlation of –1.0 between fertility and life expectancy change deviations produced relatively small decreases in the means of the world population size distributions and relatively large decreases in the standard deviations. This is because high fertility combined with low life expectancies partially offset each other in terms of population size.
It is difficult to do an empirical analysis of past correlations between fertility and life expectancy deviations for our 13 regions. We did an approximate calculation using United Nations data by taking, where possible, a large country in each of our regions. We took United Nations vital rate assumptions from the 1988 assessment2 and used them as the trend and calculated deviations from the trend for 1995-2000 using data from the 2000 assessment.3 The thirteen countries are Egypt, Nigeria, China, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, Iran, India, Poland, France, Brazil, United States, and Bulgaria. The correlation between deviations in the total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth was 0.259, which is not statistically significantly different from zero (95 percent level of confidence, two-tailed test). On theoretical grounds there is no clear expectation as to what correlation should be expected in the future. That is why we chose 0.0, but also performed sensitivity analyses to see how our results would be affected by possible deviations from this assumption.
The sensitivity analysis presented here is at the level of one region, North Africa. This region was chosen because the quality of the demographic data in the region is quite good and because its population has a relatively low probability of reaching a peak within the century. The relatively low probability provides room for both upward and downward movements. If we were to present the results at the world level, we would have somewhat different results depending on the interregional correlations that we chose. Considering a single region allows us to present the effects more clearly. To further simplify matters, we have used only the female population. This, in no way, affects the generality of our findings.
Our results are presented in Table 1 and Figure 3. Table 1 shows the same phenomenon that we observed in our earlier work. The main effect of changing the correlation between fertility and life expectancy is on the variance of the distribution of future population sizes. For example, in 2100 when the correlation is –0.9 the 80 percent prediction interval is 123.6 million people wide, while when it is 0.9 it is 172.9 million people wide.
Figure 3 shows the probability of the female population reaching a peak for each year of the century for five different correlations between fertility and life expectancy, -0.9, -0.5, 0.0, 0.5, and 0.9 and for the 31 term moving average specification. By the end of the century, the five lines are so close to one another that they are barely distinguishable. In 2100, when the correlation is 0.0, the probability of the peak population being reached by the end of the century is 75.9 percent. If the correlation was 0.5, the probability would be 76.2 percent and if it was –0.5, it would be 74.5 percent. Therefore, if the correlation was somewhere between –0.5 and 0.5 and we supposed it to be 0.0, the maximum error in the probability of the peak being reached by the end of the century would be 1.4 percentage points. Indeed, if the true correlation was somewhere between –0.9 and 0.9 and we assumed it to be equal to zero, the maximum possible error that we could make in the probability of the peak being reached by the end of the century would be 3 percentage points. The results are similar for all regions.
The dataset with 1,000 simulations for the female population of North Africa for the case of the correlation –0.9 is in the file "nature_dataset_1a.xls." A similar dataset based on the assumption of a correlation of 0.9 is in "nature_dataset_1b.xls."
2.b Autocorrelation
For clarity, we also consider differences in first-order autocorrelation only for females in North Africa. Figure 4 is similar to Figure 3 except that it assumes zero correlation between fertility and life expectancy change deviations and considers three different numbers of terms in the moving average specification, 21, 31, and 41. The three lines are quite close to one another. The probabilities of reaching a peak by the end of the century are 78.9, 75.9, and 73.3 percent, respectively. In the text, our findings are based on a moving average specification with 31 terms. If the correct specification were somewhere between 21 and 41 terms, the maximum error that we would make in the probability of a peak being reached by the end of the century would be 3 percentage points upwards or 2.6 percentage points downward. A similar clustering occurs when this sensitivity analysis is carried out assuming the other four correlations between fertility and life expectancy change deviations discussed in the previous section. The autocorrelation coefficient for our 31-term case is 0.9677.
There are not enough time periods to make a useful empirical analysis of autocorrelation even from United Nations data. Our choice is consistent with Lee4 (p. 161), which reports that the first-order correlation for the total fertility rate during the twentieth century in the United States was 0.96. Further, 31 years is close to the length of a generation and one way of interpreting Lee's finding is that there were influences on fertility that operated on generational scale.
2.c Correlations Across Regions
Due to rapidly increasing globalisation of medical technology as well as of new threats to life, it is assumed that the interregional correlations of the deviations from the expected trends in life expectancy improvements are very high. For fertility increasing globalisation of media (transmission of norms and fashions with respect to fertility relevant life styles) as well as reproductive technology is also likely to result in high global correlations. But due to the fact that fertility is much more strongly embedded in regional norms, traditions and religions the correlation is assumed to be somewhat lower than in the case of life expectancy.
For the results presented in the main text interregional correlations in the deviations from expected trends were assumed to be 0.9 in the case of life expectancy and 0.7 in the case of fertility. Under these assumptions, the probability that world population growth would come to an end during this century is 86 percent. We did two other computations, one in which the interregional correlation for life expectancy was lowered to 0.7 and the one for fertility was decreased to 0.5, and another with correlations 0.7 and 0.0, respectively. The probability that the world's population growth would end by 2100 remains virtually constant in all three cases with differences only visible around the middle of the century (see Figure 5).
Table 2 gives the median world population size and the 80 percent prediction intervals for the years 2000, 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100. The table shows that median world population sizes are hardly affected by changing the correlation structure, but that the 80 percent prediction interval is. For example, in 2100 the 80 percent prediction interval for the interregional fertility correlation of 0.7 and the interregional life expectancy correlation of 0.9 is 6.54 billion people. In the case of fertility correlation of 0.0 and life expectancy correlation of 0.7, the 80 percent prediction interval is only 4.03 billion people wide. But as shown above, this does not significantly affect the probability of world population peaking by the end of this century.
The dataset incorporating 2,000 simulations at intervals of five years for our base case with interregional fertility correlation of 0.7 and interregional life expectancy correlation of 0.9 appears in file "nature_dataset_2.xls."
3. Baseline Errors
Errors in the baseline data of a population projection are a significant source of error of the projected population especially in the nearer term future. In the longer run errors in the assumed trends dominate. The analysis of these issues in the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) report,5 which was based on earlier important work by Alho6 and Keilman,7 has recently been further developed by Bulatao8 who distinguishes between the errors in the baseline population size, the errors in the assumed starting levels in fertility and mortality and the errors due to wrong assumption on the trends. His decomposition of the errors for selected UN and World Bank forecasts since 1973 attributes a smaller proportion of the total error to baseline errors than the NRC report did. Studying the errors at different levels of regional aggregation he concludes that world errors tend to be much smaller than the error for the average country because country errors have tended to offset.
What do these findings from past projections imply for the uncertainty ranges of future population trends presented here? In the following we will discuss (a) the sensitivity of assumed serious errors in the baseline population on our main results and (b) how assumed changes in the starting level of fertility (using the recently announced UN projections3 as an example) impact our main conclusion.
3a. Errors in Baseline Population Size
We did calculations assuming that the true population of sub-Saharan Africa in 2000 was 5 percent and 10 percent higher than our figure. These are very high baseline errors for a world region by any standards. The consequence of this was that the probability of the world's population reaching a peak by 2100 was reduced by one-tenth of one percentage point (for both the 5 and 10 percent changes). The mean of the world's population distribution would be around 173 million people or roughly 2 percent higher in 2100 than we forecast, if the true population of sub-Saharan Africa in 2000 were 10 percent higher than our figure. The effect of an error in initial population size will be larger in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions because of the still rapid population growth there. In the opposite case of overestimating the population of Sub-Saharan Africa in 2000, the probability of world population growth ending during this century would be slightly higher than our figure. This sensitivity analysis shows that plausible errors in initial population sizes will have virtually no impact on our conclusion that the world population growth is likely to end in the current century.
3b. Errors in Baseline Total Fertility Rates
By using the recently released UN3 population forecasts we can assess the effects of plausible changes in baseline total fertility estimates. Between 1999 and 2001 the UN has reassessed its estimates of fertility levels for 1995-2000 and increased fertility figures for some large countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This change in baseline fertility is one of the sources (along with changed assumptions about trends) of an increase in projected world population sizes from UN9 (1999) to UN3 (2001).
Here we study the sensitivity of our findings to the changed UN baseline fertility assumptions. Our results are presented in Tables 3 and 4, where we utilise all the assumptions in our paper, except that we adjust our total fertility rates in the initial year according to the differences in estimates of 1995-2000 fertility between UN9 (1999) and UN3 (2001). In Table 3, we show the probability of a peak in population size being reached for the world and for our 13 regions for 25-year intervals from 2000 to 2100 using both total fertility rate sets as starting values. Using the higher total fertility rates, the probability that the world's population would peak during the century is 85.7 percent, compared to 86.0 percent using our original total fertility rates. The effect of this plausible increase in baseline total fertility rates has a negligible effect on the probability of reaching a peak in all regions of the world as shown in Table 3.
Table 4 shows the median population size and 80 percent prediction interval for the world's population and the population of our 13 regions by 25-year intervals from 2000 to 2100. It is the analogue of Table 1 in the main text but based on higher initial total fertility rates. Using the lower total fertility rates, the world's median population size in 2100 is 8.41 billion with an 80 percent prediction interval between 5.58 and 12.12 billion people. With the higher total fertility rates, the world's median population size in 2100 is 8.45 billion with an 80 percent prediction interval between 5.57 and 12.22 billion. It is clear that adjusting the baseline total fertility rates higher has little effect on the distribution of future world population sizes in 2100.
The main finding of our paper is that there is a high probability, around 85 percent, that the population of the world will reach a peak sometime during the current century. We have considered the sensitivity of this finding to a number of uncertain parameters. The evidence strongly supports the conclusion that our main finding is not sensitive to plausible changes in those parameters.
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. & Scherbov, S. Probabilistic population projections based on expert opinion. In The Future Population of the World: What Can We Assume Today? (ed. Lutz, W.) 397–385 (Earthscan, London, rev. ed., 1996).
United Nations. World Population Prospects 1988 (United Nations, New York, ST/ESA/SER.A/106, 1989).
United Nations. 2000 Assessment (United Nations, New York, 2001). Web site http://www.un.org/esa/population.
Lee, R. D. Probabilistic approaches to population forecasting. In Frontiers of Population Forecasting (eds. Lutz, W., Vaupel, J. W. & Ahlburg, D. A.), a supplement to Population and Development Review 24 (1998), 156–190 (1999).
Bongaarts, J. & Bulatao, R. A., Eds, Beyond Six Billion. Forecasting the World's Population. (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 2000).
Alho, J. M. The magnitude of error due to different vital processes in population forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting 8, 301–314 (1992).
Keilman, N. How accurate are the United Nations world population projections? In Frontiers of Population Forecasting (eds. Lutz, W., Vaupel, J. W. & Ahlburg, D. A.), a supplement to Population and Development Review 24 (1998), 15–41 (1999).
Bulatao, R. A. Visible and Invisible Sources of Error in World Population Projections. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, DC, 29–31 March 2001.
(GIF 7.84 KB)
AR(1), α=0.9677, σ(u)=0.05896, v(0)=0, 10,000 simulations.
MA(30) (31 terms), σ(εt)=0.234, 31 initial values of u=0, 10,000 simulations.
Probability of the female population of North Africa reaching a peak by indicated year using 31-term moving average specification for correlations between total fertility rate of female life expectancy at birth of –0.9, -0.5, 0.0, 0.5, and 0.9.
Probability of the female population of North Africa reaching a peak by indicated year using correlation of 0.0 between total fertility rate and female life expectancy at birth for moving average specifications of 21, 31, and 41 terms.
Probability that the peak in population size is reached before the indicated date for three different structures of interregional correlations. f=interregional correlation in total fertility rates; m=interregional correlation in life expectancies at birth.
Table 1 Median and 80 percent prediction interval (in parentheses) for the female population of North Africa, 31-term moving average specification, correlations of deviations from average paths of the total fertility rate and changes in female life expectancy at birth of –0.9, 0.0, and 0.9.
Table 2 Median world population size and 80 percent prediction intervals (in parentheses) for three sets of interregional correlations of deviations from average paths of total fertility rates and changes in life expectancies at birth.
Table 3 Probability that population will reach a peak before the given date using total fertility rates based on the assumptions used in the text and those with higher baseline fertility following the UN3 (2001) assessment.
Table 4 Median population sizes and 80 percent prediction intervals (in parentheses) using all the same assumptions as Table 1 in the main text but with total fertility adjusted upwards according to the differences between UN9 (1999) and UN3 (2001).
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. & Scherbov, S. The end of world population growth. Nature 412, 543–545 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1038/35087589
Issue Date: 02 August 2001
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/35087589
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Uncertain population forecasts
Nico Keilman
Nature News & Views 01 Aug 2001


English is a great language for literature. Tons of exemplary works of literary, mainstream, and science fiction have been written in it. But obviously, it's not the only language on Earth. Scads of great sci-fi writers tend to fly under American audiences' radar because they write in their own language, and get published in their home countries' magazines instead of the big New York ones.
Americans aren't the only people who have a moratorium on splendid science fiction. Writers all around the world have crafted works of sublime genius in their mother tongues. And I, Andrew Timothy Post, sci-fi writer extraordinaire, am here to tell you about three of 'em.
1. "Tale of the Computer that Fought a Dragon" by Stanisław Lem.
Stanisław Herman Lem (1921-2006) was a Polish sci-fi writer. Though he lived in Eastern Europe during the worst days of the Cold War, when free speech and expression were repressed by the Soviet government, he still managed to churn out short stories and novels in various genres. He was so good that he was awarded an honorary membership in the Science Fiction Writers of America (SFWA) in 1973. Even Isaac Asimov, the grand master of science fiction, spoke highly of him.
It's great fun, and only a few hundred words long. Go read it. It's online.
Kono Tensei (1935-2012) was a Japanese science fiction writer. Although almost unknown in the science fiction world and America, he wrote sci-fi stories good enough to appear in David Hartwell's World Treasury of Science Fiction, published in 1989 (which, incidentally, is where all the stories in this blog post come from).
And as if that wasn't a cool enough premise for you, the story ends with a haiku. How neat is that?
Among the most versatile and popular SF writers in the Soviet Union, Kirill Bulychev is one of a group of younger Soviet writers to emerge in the 1960s. Above all, his talent for storytelling and interest in human characters interacting with SF problems make him a particular effective representative of recent Soviet SF. The strain of utopianism remains strong in Eastern European SF and sinks many stories with didacticism, but Bulychev is able to sustain his delight in the wonders of the technological future, as in the days of John W. Campbell. And of course, the influence of Campbell-style SF itself, in this case Van Vogt's "Far Centaurus," is clearly present.
Well, that's all I've got, Internet. Some great Polish, Japanese, and Russian sci-fi stories. Now get the heck off the Internet and start reading 'em. And then write some amazing science fiction of your own. I know you can.
Author Andrew Timothy Post's debut novel, a work of historical fiction set in Korea, based on the real-life General Sherman incident of 1866.


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Kenneth HESKETH (b 1968)
Knotted Tongues (2012, rev 2014) [14:56]
Of Time and Disillusionment (2016) [20:40]
In Ictu Oculi – Three Meditations (2017) [19:04]
BBC National Orchestra of Wales/Christoph-Mathias Mueller
rec. 2017, BBC Hoddinott Hall, Cardiff, Wales
PALADINO MUSIC PMR0092 [54:42]
Kenneth Hesketh's name has been cropping up in the pages of MWI since November 2001, when an interview with the then 33 year old composer appeared. Notwithstanding several concert reviews and a further conversation with Christopher Thomas, it's only in the last five years that CD reviews have started to appear with any regularity. The most important of these were an orchestral and ensemble disc released by NMC in 2013 (NMCD 186 - review) and a terrific recital of his piano works recorded by Clare Hammond for BIS in 2016 (BIS 2193-SACD - review). While I certainly enjoyed the works on both of those issues, this new release on Paladino contains three brilliantly realised orchestral works which are arguably even more impressive. All have been composed in the last four years and confirm Hesketh as an individual voice with a consistently identifiable style. These performances by the BBC National Orchestra of Wales have been scrupulously prepared and are conducted by the Austrian Christoph-Mathias Mueller who also appeared on the NMC disc. All three items demonstrate Hesketh's incisive and refined orchestration, and benefit from an outstanding recording. It is a real coup for the Paladino label to have produced this exceptional composer portrait.
All three pieces were inspired by extra-musical ideas. The first, Knotted Tongues takes its cue from the Cartesian idea of 'The Beast Machine', the notion that the human body comprises a complex web of interdependent mechanisms, each of which may be prone to sudden and unpredictable malfunction which would render the body 'unreliable'. The title is here specifically suggestive of the breakdown of verbal communication in the form of stammering. As it happens one of my oldest and closest friends has had to endure this condition since childhood, and has regularly discussed its impact with me, not least because he has had to deal with it on a more or less daily basis en route to a professional role which involves a good deal of public speaking. The title of Hesketh's piece alludes to the author Benson Bobrick's characterisation of sufferers' fear of stammering as "the anticipation of the glottal catastrophe", a description which my friend would certainly recognise and one that certainly helps in grasping this music. It begins with a visceral orchestral 'splutter', followed by bass-clarinet and tentative wind-chords which lead to a sudden and shattering orchestral climax which truly comes from nowhere, and dramatically affects the subsequent texture and flow of the piece. To my ears Knotted Tongues is an assured orchestral representation of human tentativeness and vulnerability. Shards of flute melody, pizzicato and sul ponticello string effects and Birtwistle-like tappings are deployed effectively to evoke a real sense of unease. Harp and tuned percussion sounds hint at a state of calm that seems just out of reach. The climaxes that occur as the work proceeds threaten to overwhelm but never quite reach the level of disorder rendered by the initial climax, a compositional strategy that conveys a nagging fear that never quite mutates into terror. One feels the orchestral body straining, vainly, to 'let it all out'. Knotted Tongues is a thrilling orchestral showpiece which challenges performers and listeners alike. Hesketh's arrangement of the material embodies diamantine clarity – a quality which defines this invigorating performance, while the recording seems ideal.
The concept of time is central to both of the other works. In Of Time and Disillusionment Hesketh makes use of a smaller orchestra, shorn of low brass and much of the percussion which featured prominently in Knotted Tongues. In his succinct note, the composer makes plain that he is (uncharacteristically) aiming for a 'lighter' sound in a five-movement structure where two brief, swift panels precede and follow a more extended tripartite central section. The textures and gestures in both opening movements hint at agitation and restlessness; busy woodwinds are succeeded by chugging, skittering strings in the first, while the almost jaunty writing for bassoons in the second is most imaginative and unusual. The third section is entitled 'Notturni per i defunti' and immediately projects a crepuscular, 'nachtmusik'-type aura. Much of this boils down to Hesketh's imaginative writing for flute and harp; throughout the whole disc one is consistently impressed by his seemingly limitless imagination as an orchestrator. At 4:08 the reference to time is made more explicit by the tolling of a tubular bell – an allusion presumably to the Petite Sonnerie which Hesketh mentions in the note. In both final movements the music becomes more assertive and even approaches aggressiveness; the fourth movement also features yet more attractively quirky writing for bassoon.
In ictu oculi (in the blink of an eye) completes the disc and restores the full orchestra, although the work was originally written for the National Youth Wind Ensemble of Great Britain and has been revamped especially for this recording. The piece consists of 'Three Meditations' in which Hesketh muses on the transience of time and the finality of all phenomena. These three panels merge into each other. In ictu oculi opens with a mysterious cloud of wind and percussion which in turn gives way to muted brass figures, and rocking, clicking gestures. Woodwind solos feature prominently, notably for flutes and saxophones. Hesketh alludes to the idea of a labyrinthine journey in attempting to describe the piece, and if the outer 'meditations' are characterised by intricate solo writing, to my ears the central section conveys something of the processional, where the regular 'thuds' of brass and timpani act as sonic 'landmarks' against which listeners can focus and find their bearings. The quiet saxophone lines concealed in the orchestral fabric seem to convey the tang of be-bop. The final meditation seems particularly inward and rather fragile, and while clouds of pent-up tension threaten to inundate the texture, they never really come to pass. As the piece subsides towards its enigmatic conclusion Hesketh creates some telling portamenti and glissandi effects. It ends with a palpable 'shiver' in the strings.
Although the benign influence of Harrison Birtwistle seems to hover over some of this material, for example in its fascination with the nature of time or in the 'processional' character of the central meditation of In ictu oculi ,the DNA of Kenneth Hesketh's individual style is unmistakeably evident throughout all three works. While his music is undoubtedly challenging, it has a smooth underbelly, and at its heart is real lucidity and a terrific appreciation of colour and timbre. To provide a rather clumsy analogy, one might suggest that it occupies a hypothetical middle ground between Birtwistle and Hesketh's fellow 'Scouser' John McCabe. It is quite impossible to imagine better advocacy for any of these pieces than that provided by Christoph-Mathias Mueller and the BBC National Orchestra of Wales – on the basis of this and the previous NMC disc Mueller demonstrates genuine empathy with Hesketh's style and his expressive goals, while the orchestral playing is superlative. Paladino's warm yet richly detailed recording hardly be bettered. It sets the seal on a hugely rewarding disc.
Richard Hanlon


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text:
Group Distinctions 2018
Materiality Topics &
(Targets Implementation Study)
petrol stations overseas
petrol stations in Greece
3 refineries
A Group with activities in
(Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia)
The Group (registered headquarters at 8A Chimarras Street, Maroussi) is comprised of 41 companies, including the parent company, which is listed on the Athens and London Stock Exchanges. The list of subsidiaries, the nature of their business, the percentages of ownership and consolidation method for each one of them, can be seen at Annual Financial Report for Fiscal Year (p. 207-210). The present legal form of the Group is the result of the initial merger which took place in 1998 when the parent company was first listed, as well as subsequent corporate transactions (acquisitions).
6.65 mil. m3
Storage tanks for crude oil and petroleum products located in Greece with a capacity of 6.65 million m3
lubricant production and packaging plant
LPG bottling plants
aircraft refueling stations
15 fuel storage
and distribution facilities
Main activity is refining (representing approximately 75% of the Group's total assets)
Covering 65% of Greece's refining capacity
The Group enjoys a leading position in the domestic market through its subsidiary EKO which is active in the domestic retail market and via LPG, industrial, aviation & bunkering fuels, and lubricants sales.
Shareholder Composition
€9,769 mil.
in turnover
€730 mil.
share price (31.12.2018)
in net profits
in financial costs
To be an innovative, extroverted and competitive regional Group that will pioneer in the energy transformation that is taking place in the international environment in the context of Sustainable Development.
To be independent and exports oriented, as well as one of the most competitive regional energy Groups combining the business capacity for high performance with the early and effective adaptation of the ongoing EU energy transformation, in the context of sustainable economic and social development, focusing on people and protecting the environment.
Safety is always our First Priority
Providing Value to our Customers
Operating Responsibly towards Society and the Environment
Respecting our Colleagues and Partners, promoting Meritocracy, Teamwork, Innovation, Continuous Improvement and Results Oriented Thinking
Investing in Sustainable Development
Continuously enhancing our Competitiveness
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Creating Value for our Shareholders and focusing on the Continuous Improvement of our Results and Cash Flows
1st place in the FORBES 100 PLUS list (including companies based in Greece with a turnover of over €100 million)
TRUE LEADER Award awarded by ICAP Group, based on high profitability, high number and growth in staff, very high ICAP Credit Score and holding one of the top positions in its industry based on turnover
Viewed as a SUSTAINABILITY LEADER, as one of the leading companies according to the Sustainability Performance Directory
Golden Distinction at the Health & Safety Awards in the "Consolidated Corporate Health and Safety Culture Activities" category
Distinction at the European Business Awards for the Environment (by PASEPPE – Greek Association of Environmental Protection Companies) in the category "Process Award"
Corporate Social Responsibility Award at the Greek Energy Forum
Triple distinction at the Bravo Awards in the following categories: "Bravo in Action" for the "Youth4GlobalGoals" initiative related to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals and "EKO S.A.'s Green Spots" initiative related to the collection and recycling of batteries at selected petrol stations and "Bravo Market" with the "Diesel AVIO Double Filtered" initiative for greater performance and cleaner engines
"Great Enterprise" Excellence Award awarded by the Federation of Industries of Northern Greece, within the framework of the "HELLENIC VALUE AWARDS – NORTHERN GREECE"
Bronze Award at the International Galaxy Awards in the "Annual Reports – Online" category
Bronze Award at the STEVIE International Business Awards in the "Best Annual Report" category
The Aspropyrgos Refinery received the International Excellence in Quality Award for the 5th consecutive year (the only refinery in the world with the highest distinction, namely "excellent" and one of the ten international facilities globally to receive the highest distinction for five consecutive years 2013-2017)
The Aspropyrgos Refinery received the Sustained Performance Award at the JIG Members Technical Forum
Ermis Awards for Outdoor Advertising "We support culture with all our energy" (MSCOMM)
DIAXON received an award in the "Regional Excellence East Macedonia-Thrace" category from the Federation of Industries of Northern Greece, within the framework of the "HELLENIC VALUE AWARDS – NORTHERN GREECE"
HELLENIC PETROLEUM CYPRUS was awarded for its contribution to the empowerment of youth and society by the REACTION Excellence Awards
EKO Bulgaria received the TRUE LEADER Award in Fuel Retail from ICAP Bulgaria
OKTA received an award for Best Practices in Social Responsibility in the Field of Environmental Protection as part of the "From Muddy Hydrocarbon Residues through Plants to a Clean Environment" program
JUGOPETROL received first place for "FIRST PLACE FOR INCOME", in the oil & petroleum companies category in the framework of the "100 largest in Montenegro" institution
The Group's main activity is conducted by three refineries in Aspropyrgos, Elefsina and Thessaloniki, which account for approximately 65% of the country's total refining capacity, together combining 6.65 million m³ in storage capacity.
Production reached 15.5 million tonnes.
Sales increased for the 8th consecutive year reaching 16.5 million tonnes.
Exports increased to record new highs (+12%) to 9.4 million tonnes.
The Aspropyrgos and Elefsina refineries recorded a record of 8.9 million MT and 6.2 million MT respectively.
Aviation fuels increased for the 6th consecutive year by 11% (1.3 million tonnes).
Bunkering fuels increased by 4% (2.9 million tonnes).
Emphasis on Safety: Focusing on education, implementation of standards and improvement of procedures.
Five-year modernization program 2019-2023, focusing on energy transformation, improving energy efficiency, reducing emissions, developing Renewable Energy Sources, digital transformation, optimizing the procurement program and rationalizing operating costs.
Maximizing operational efficiency by exploiting synergies between the Group's refineries and improving the efficiency of the refinery conversion units and energy performance.
Maintaining high export activity.
Preparing the Group for low sulphur bunkering fuels in 2020.
The Group is active in the marketing of petroleum products both in Greece and abroad through subsidiaries (Cyprus, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia).
In Greece, the Group has over 1,700 petrol stations under the EKO and BP trademarks, of which more than 200 are COMO while 300 EKO branded outlets operate overseas.
The consolidated company has the most comprehensive fuel supply network as follows:
15 fuel storage and distribution facilities
23 aircraft refuelling stations at major airports
2 LPG bottling plants
1 lubricant production and packaging unit
Increase in sales of motor fuels, further boosting diversified fuel sales by 8%, contributing to profitability.
Improve EKO and BP's market share in motor fuels, exceeding 32%.
Maintaining EKO's leading position in Aviation and Marine fuels with sales growth, mainly due to increased tourist traffic.
Sales of lubricants and liquefied petroleum gas increase (+ 4%).
International sales volume increase by 4%.
Emphasis on the development of COMO petrol stations, as well as the range of products and services provided through points of sale.
Improvement of competitiveness and adaptation to customer requirements as well as to the challenges of the economic environment.
Increase market share for domestic traffic in motor fuels.
Implementing digital marketing transformation initiatives.
Maintaining the leading position in Cyprus and Montenegro, strengthening the profitability of OKTA's commercial activity, and continuing growth in the Bulgarian and Serbian markets through the development of the network of petrol stations and the optimization of the supply chain.
Relocation of the Group's storage tanks in Cyprus.
Upgrading of Group petrol stations in Montenegro.
Crude oil supplies are coordinated centrally and are covered by term contracts and spot transactions.
The accessibility of the Group's refineries and the flexibility to process a wide variety of crude products are key competitive advantages that prove to be particularly important both for profitability and the Group's ability to respond to abrupt reductions in the supply of specific types of crude, ensuring the uninterrupted supply of the markets in which the Group operates.
In 2018, the crude oil market was affected by the resumption of US sanctions against Iran.
The crude oil supply mix adapted to the prevailing market conditions as follows: increased supply of crude from Iraq (29%) and Kazakhstan (18%), a reduction from Iran to 11%, a steady contribution from Russia (9%), Libya (7%), Saudi Arabia (6%) and Egypt (5%) and for the first time, crude was also sourced from the US.
Increase in refining margins, mainly through the expansion of direct procurement from producers and the exploitation of short-term spot market opportunities.
Utilization of the refineries' location and capacity for both the supply and processing of a diversified raw material mix.
Petrochemicals / Chemicals
Petrochemical activities focus on the production and marketing of polypropylene, BOPP films and solvents and include the trading of imported plastics and chemicals.
Based on participation in financial figures, the BOPP propylene-polypropylene product chain is the main activity in petrochemicals.
The polypropylene plant in Thessaloniki is mainly supplied by propylene produced at the Group's refinery in Aspropyrgos. Polypropylene production is based on Basel technology, which is considered to be one of the leading technologies globally. Part of the production of the produced polypropylene is the raw material for the BOPP film production unit in Komotini (DIAXON S.A.).
65% of chemicals are exported.
EBITDA to the tune of 100 million EUR.
Petrochemicals sales reached 315 million EUR.
International PP margins moved to 2017 levels.
Investigating increasing vertical integration and the distribution of new products.
Continuous improvement in products' quality and the competitiveness of activities.
Decision to invest in a new Cast Film production line with a capacity of 7,000 MT/yr.
Feasibility Study to increase PP production to 300 kit/yr, either by increasing the vertical integration (OCT unit) in Aspropyrgos), or via imported propylene.
Conducting study regarding increasing BOPP film production capacity to 3 kit/yr.
Conducting study regarding the installation of a new metal film production line 4-5 kit/yr.
Increase Polypropylene bulk storage by 1,000 MT.
Power Generation & Natural Gas
These two activities concern ELPEDISON BV (50% HELLENIC PETROLEUM S.A., 50% EDISON) and DEPA S.A. (35% HELLENIC PETROLEUM S.A., HRADF, 65%) respectively.
The sale of 66% of DESFA S.A. for €284 million was completed.
The participation of the aforementioned companies in the Group's results, excluding the impact of the DESFA and Zenith transactions on DEPA Group's results, amounted to a total of 30 million Euros in 2018.
ELPEDISON's sales amounted to 1,710 GWh with a retail market share of approximately 3.5% to high, medium and low voltage customers.
ELPEDISON entered the liberalized Natural Gas supply market, expanding its clientele, mainly in the regions of Attica, Thessaloniki and Thessaly.
Design and implementation of alternative infrastructures in the country (electric vehicle charging points, supply points for compressed natural gas vehicles in cooperation with DEPA, etc.).
Preparing for the transition to the new regulatory framework for the four markets (Target Model), including cross-border trade.
Feasibility study concerning the installation of a hybrid power system on the non-interconnected islands.
Hydrocarbon Exploration & Production
The company monitors and participates in developments in the field of Hydrocarbon Research and Production in Greece by submitting bids on international government tenders for the acquisition of rights in selected areas either independently or in a consortium with other international companies in the sector, also taking into account market conditions.
The areas of activity in Greece are:
The Thracian Sea concession, totalling 1,600 sq. km (HELPE 25% in a consortium with Calfrac Well Services Ltd. 75%).
The Patraikos Gulf, total area of 1,892 sq. km (50% HELPE PATRAIKOS, EDISON International SpA 50%).
The two land areas "Arta-Preveza" and "NW Peloponnese".
Total 50%, Edison 25%, HELPE 25% for Block 2 (marine) on the West Coast of Corfu.
Internal geological surveys are being conducted in the Thracian Sea area.
The primary geological objective was fully confirmed and mapped in the Patraikos Gulf.
In the "Arta-Preveza", "North Peloponnese" research areas and Block 2 (west of Corfu), a program of geological and environmental investigations is being implemented under contractual obligations.
The Lease Agreement with the Greek State was signed for Block 10 in the Kyparissia Gulf region and for the consortium in the Western Greece "Ionian" Sea Region (Repsol 50% – Manager, HELPE 50%); the corresponding ratification by the Greek Parliament is expected.
Awaiting the announcement of the preferred bidder for Block 1 in the Ionian Sea, north of Corfu.
Αwaiting the sanctions for the Lease Agreements from the Greek
Parliament for the two areas
Southwest of Crete through the consortium Total 40% – Manager, ExxonMobil 40%, Hellenic Petroleum 20%.
Assessment of hydrocarbon potential by performing geophysical studies and exploration drillings with absolute respect for the environment and local communities.
Focus on Greece and the promotion of strategic partnerships.
Patraikos Research Project: Two drillings (2019) and in the case of hydrocarbon discovery, conducting further drillings (2020-2021).
Continuation of research on land and sea areas according to the Lease Agreements (geological studies, seismic recordings and at least two drillings in Arta (2021-2022) and blocks 2 and 10.
Participation in drilling and development of the Athos deposit in the Thracian Sea depending on the outcome of the negotiations.
Depending on the results of the surveys, optimization of the farm down-equity portfolio.
Exploring business opportunities in the broader geographic area (2020-2022).
Further staffing/creation of infrastructure and procedures for drilling in the role of Manager.
ΗELLENIC RENEWABLES S.A. was founded in 2006 and is a 100% owned subsidiary of HELLENIC PETROLEUM Group. The purpose of the company is to produce, distribute and market energy products from the exploitation of renewable energy sources, as well as the study, trading of equipment, construction and installation of renewable energy systems (wind, photovoltaic, biomass, etc.) diversifying the Group's energy portfolio and contributing to balancing the Group's greenhouse gas emissions.
A wind farm of 7 MW is in operation in Pylos, N. Messinia.
A total of 19 MW PV parks in operation.
A 9 MW MWW project, acquired at the RAE pilot ceremony in December 2016, was acquired and constructed in Sofades, Karditsa.
At various stages of development: 2
PV 12MW, 4 power and heat generation units from biomass burning (from residual agriculture) with a total power of 20 MW and a 1 MW biogas plant.
10 PV net-metering systems were installed (100 kW in total) on top of
EKO and BP branded fuel stations.
Applications for PV projects over 200 MW were submitted for production license
HELPE Renewables has set the goal of developing significant installed wind, photovoltaic and biomass power in the coming years, contributing to the Group's greenhouse gas emissions balance. The reduction in its carbon footprint will reach 500,000 tonnes by 2025 through the development of a portfolio with an installed capacity of about 300MW, offsetting a significant proportion of CO2 emissions corresponding to refinery and power and natural gas generation activities.
Hellenic Renewables follows Group Safety and Environmental (S & E) procedures in relation to compliance, reporting, management and avoidance of risks and accidents during construction and operation.
For each new project, a responsible S & E engineer is appointed to monitor the relevant issues, oversee the work and the S & E licensing stage and the duration of the relevant permits subject to review.
A 130 MW photovoltaic portfolio, as well as wind and hybrid projects, are under various stages of development in cooperation with LARCO.
At the same time, it is continuing to assess investments in self-production – self-consumption at the Group's premises, which are connected to the low and medium voltage networks.
ASPROFOS is a Group subsidiary and is the largest Greek provider of technical services, as well as energy advisory services in S.E. Europe.
Turnover amounted to EUR 12.4 million through the provision of services to 90 new projects.
ASPROFOS is involved in major projects such as IGI Poseidon, refinery projects in Croatia as well as in the Aspropyrgos and Thessaloniki industrial plants, a change study for an aviation fuel pipeline route in Sri Lanka, and project management services for Serbia's oil security system.
Supporting of the Group's Corporate Social Responsibility program by restoring the Theater of Mandra-Idylia, affected by natural disasters.
Strengthening the company's extrovert and competitive policy to expand services outside the Group.
Synergies with EPC companies.
Expansion of services within the HELLENIC PETROLEUM Group, to meet existing needs.
Investing in the productive core of the company and its high level of training and know-how.
Restoration of the special education complex in Rafina, affected by natural disasters.
of the 169 Sustainable Development Targets cover the Group's activities
integration increase of the Sustainable Development Targets over 2017
material topics emerged from 26 sustainable development issues related to the Group's activities
We regularly redefine who our stakeholders are, namely those who are significantly influenced and/or influence the Group's business activities, aiming in establishing an effective two way communication.
Stakeholder Categories
Means of Communication/Participation Methods Communication Frequency
2 way communication, scheduled meetings, events/speeches, publications Periodic
Intranet (internal communication network), employee suggestion box Daily
Satisfaction surveys Periodic
Customers and Consumers
Satisfaction surveys, loyalty surveys, specific surveys via questionnaires for acceptability of new products/services, focus-groups Monthly, Quarterly, Annual and on a case-by-case basis
Customer helpline, dialogue, marketing company websites, social media, newsletters, portals, android & IOS applications Daily
Petrol Station Managers
Satisfaction surveys Monthly, Quarterly
Training, employee performance, dialogue Weekly, Daily
Meetings, dialogue, answers to questions, resolving disagreements, procurement competitions, contracts When appropriate
Supplier registration questionnaire Periodic
Shareholders, Investors, Capital Markets and Other Capital Providers
Road shows, meetings Periodic
General meetings, publications (annual, half yearly and quarterly reports, see here Annual, Bi-annual
Media and social media
Dialogue, press/press releases, see here Daily
Public debates Periodic
Wider Society (Bodies, NGOs, etc.)
Dialogue, opinion polls and collaborations (See here) Periodic
Public debates Daily
Local Society (Bodies, NGOs, etc. of neighbouring Municipalities)
Debates, opinion surveys, newsletters, collaborations (See here) Periodic
2 way communication Daily
State and Regulatory Authorities
Meetings, participations, consultations Periodic
Dialogue, public debates, collaborations Periodic
Scientific / Academic Community
Dialogue, partnerships and collaborations, public debates Periodic
Materiality Topics & Sustainable Development Goals
In addition to regular communication and a clearly defined cooperation framework with each of our stakeholders, we conduct a materiality study, based on GRI Standards concerning Stakeholder Materiality, Comprehensiveness and Participation, with the participation of key representatives from stakeholder groups through focus groups, interviews and online surveys. The implementation phases of the analysis are described in detail in the Introduction of the Form (Methodology). The ten material topics highlighted in the study are presented in more detail below, in line with the Sustainable Development Goals, which the Group actively participates in with targeted actions for their integration and implementation.
Graphical Representation of the Material Topics (Materiality Matrix)
(1) Regulatory compliance
We pursue ethical responsibility and integrity in every aspect of our business.
(2) Leaks & Oil Spills
We continually reinforce all precautionary and risk reducing measures in order to manage the risk of spills, to provide environmental protection and maintain the company's sustainability.
(3) Employee Health, Safety and Well-Being
The health and safety of our people is our first priority. Our objective is to operate safely and accident-free.
(4) Air Quality
We continuously invest in reducing air emissions, thereby contributing to the improvement of air quality. Maximizing gas fuel use, using fuels with higher environmental specifications and applying advanced technologies to the production process are indicative investments.
(5) Fighting Corruption & Business Ethics
We act honestly and ethically through a set of principles, policies and code of conduct.
(7) Εnergy & Climate Change
We contribute to climate change mitigation by investing in energy management optimization, energy saving and the use of Renewable Energy Sources.
(8) Waste & Circular Economy
We aim to continuously increase the utilization rate throughout the life cycle of the materials and natural resources we use by recycling and re-using them in our production process as well as through developing broader synergies for their use.
(9) Employment
We strive for a safe work environment where people are treated with respect and equal opportunities to develop their skills and career.
(10) Product Safety, Quality & Accessibility
We create value for our customers and consumers through providing safe and innovative high quality products and services that are competitively priced.
(17) Continuous Operation
& Preparedness for Emergency Situations
We ensure that we are prepared and can immediately respond to emergencies so that we can operate continuously – which is also linked to the Group's sustainability.
OTHER SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TOPICS
6.Value Creation & Distribution to Stakeholders
11. Support and Consultation with Local Communities
12. Responsible Products
13. Anti-competitive Behavior
14. Biodiversity
15. Human Rights at Work
16. Oil & Natural Gas Stocks
18. Raw Materials & Materials
19. Innovation in Services
20. Water Consumption
21. Data Protection Privacy Policy
22. Employee Education & Training
23. Indirect Economic Effects
24. Responsible Supply Chain
25. Responsible Marketing
26. Diversity & Equal Opportunities
The Sustainable Development Agenda, its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets were adopted at the 70th UN General Assembly on 25 September 2015. The SDGs are of global nature and of general application with a timetable for implementation by 2030. They create implementation commitments for all developed and developing countries, taking into account different national realities, levels of development, national policies and priorities. The 2030 Agenda promotes the integration of all three dimensions of sustainable development – social, environmental and economic – into all sectoral policies while also promoting the interconnection and coherence of the policy and legislative frameworks on the SDGs.
The HELLENIC PETROLEUM Group recognizes the importance of the 2030 Agenda and actively participates in targeted actions for its dissemination and implementation. For 2018, the Group undertook initiatives for all 17 SDGs that can be linked with the 52% of the Targets, showing an improvement of 13% compared to 2017 (initiatives for all 17 SDGs, linked with the 39% of the Targets).
Targets that in 2018 showed the highest improvement
compared to 2017:
37% increase
SDGs directly linked to the Group's activities,
whose Targets in 2018 were 100% integrated:
The HELLENIC PETROLEUM Group recognizes the importance of developing actions to contribute to the achievement of the UN Global Goals on Sustainable Development and is committed to dialogue and cooperation with all its social partners for the implementation of the 2030 Agenda.
Targets implementation percentage for 2017-2018
Previous Chapter Message to Stakeholders
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Ammonia emissions in Europe have fallen since 1990, but by not as much as emissions of other air pollutants tracked under an internationally agreed United Nations convention. According to a new report from the European Environment Agency (EEA), ammonia emissions increased in 2014, meaning several EU Member States as well as the EU now exceed their respective ammonia emission limits under the convention.
Cities across Europe must step up their adaptation efforts if they are to handle the increasingly complex challenges caused by climate change such as more extreme flooding or prolonged heatwaves. A European Environment Agency (EEA) report published today stresses the benefits of investing in long-term preventive measures that cities should take to improve their resilience.
Transport plays a critical role in the way we live. Our food, clothes and household waste all need to be transported, contributing to our economy and quality of life. But the increasing use of planes, cars and other fossil-fuel dependent modes of transport is causing more pollution, putting at risk our environment and health. The European Environment Agency's (EEA) Signals 2016 explores how Europe's carbon-dependent transport sector can be turned into a clean and smart mobility system.


The global disparities in cancer care are stark. Lack of resources and basic infrastructure mean that most African countries have no access to cancer screening, early diagnosis, treatment or palliative care. Consequently a diagnosis of cancer leads, in most cases, to a painful and distressing death.
By 2030 there are expected to be 22 million new cases of cancer every year, 60% of which will be in Low to Middle Income Countries's where governments are least prepared to address the growing cancer burden and where survival rates are often less than half those of more developed countries.
AfrOx believes that by forging alliances of individuals, NGOs and governments to share expertise, technology, training and a degree of philanthropic support, much could be done to help reduce global disparities in cancer care.
National programmes to educate the public and healthcare professionals about the signs and symptoms of cancer will help promote early detection and better survival outcomes.
AfrOx believes that sustainable treatment programmes need to be built in the context of the available human resources, equipment and facilities.
Pain and symptom control, coupled with counseling and spiritual care, enables patients to die with dignity, preventing a painful and distressing death.
AfrOx will work with and support the Ministries of Health in Sub-Saharan Africa to produce their own national cancer plans.
A major obstacle in the provision of adequate cancer care in Africa is the lack of trained health care professionals.


I'm sat in a Tea House in Namche Bazaar 3 days walk and an airplane ride to the nearest city, Kathmandu. The altitude is 3400m and I am amongst the highest mountains in the World. It is an honour to be here working and enjoying the scenery.
This is probably the most challenging thing I have ever done both physically and mentally. The air at the moment has 80% oxygen and will decrease to 40% in 5 days.
First and foremost this trip is work, documenting the trek from Lukla to Everest Base Camp, but also as a follower of Jesus I know he has a purpose for me being here. I believe that God is using me to bring something different to the mix. The group I am trekking with are amazing. Such a great mix of people from all backgrounds. It is a pleasure to get to know them.
Two days ago my room mate twisted his ankle. It was pretty bad, swollen and painful to walk on. Not what you need one day into a twelve day trip. So I plucked up the courage and asked if I could pray for his ankle, and he said yes. The next morning it was much better, not fully better but getting there and he could walk on it. Today he said it was not really painful at all. Now I would say praise the Lord, that's a miracle. My room mate however is not sure whether it was the bio gel or prayer and I said, that doesn't matter at the moment. The point is that it's better.
I know that this experience was as much for me as it was for him. I feel that God is challenging me to be bolder and step out in faith and walk in my calling as well as walk to the top of the world.
Earlier today I prayed for another team member who has a really bad knee. I believe she will receive her miracle tonight. Please pray for her.
God is encouraging us all to "walk in a manner worthy of the calling to which you have been called". This means all day every day, at work at home, in the Himalaya, everywhere at all times.
Be encouraged, stand up, walk in humility and gentleness, be patient and see God blow your mind. He is alive and real and wants to use you in ways you can't imagine.
This is the last Internet for almost a week so keep up to date with where I'm at through twitter (@thepaisly).


text:
Q: Something breaking my site in IE I been scratching my head for a long time now :/
My site is breaking in Internet Explorer: http://www.tolux.se/
It's built on boilerplate and wordpress.
Been trying to figure out whats breaking the site in IE...
When I do all the css and html everything is fine. Then I make it to a wordpress theme. Everything is still fine in IE. I activate three plugins: formidable, custom post type ui and simple fields. Everything seems fine, then i start working with some content etc, thinking everything is ok now, but no. I been doing this over and over, removing code, plugins everything back and forth but cant figure out what breaks the site :(
Maby something with the modernizr?
I really need some help here. Been trying for hours and hours now. Think i built the site from scratch four times. lol...

A: You need to specify a valid DOCTYPE, or IE defaults to quirks mode and won't render many things correctly.
<!DOCTYPE html> works if you're using HTLML5 standards.

A: You have a doctype, but there is white space above it with invisible characters that are throwing off IE. And, your text files need to be Unicode No BOM. (Byte Order Mark)
See [Invalid] Markup Validation of   tolux.se  - W3C Markup Validator. Scroll down in the validation report to see line numbers and source code.