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Vető János (Budapest, 1953. december 14. –) Munkácsy Mihály-díjas magyar képzőművész, fotóművész, videóművész, zenész. A hatvanas évek végétől a neoavantgarde fotóművészet és képzőművészet, és az alternatív zenei kultúra fontos alakja, nemzetközileg ismert művész.

Életútja

1953-ban Budapesten született. Gyerekszínész volt a Madách Színházban.  Gyerekkora óta ír verseket, és az 1960-as évek vége óta fényképez, filmez és zenél. A Kex Együttes énekesét, Baksa Soós Jánost 1962 óta ismeri, barátjának és mesterének tekinti. 1969-1970-ben közreműködött a Kex egy-egy koncertjén. Az MTI gyakornokaként Molnár Gergellyel, a Spions együttes énekesével dolgozott együtt. 1976-1980 között a performance művész Hajas Tibor fotósa, asszisztense, operatőre, haláláig állandó munkatársa volt. A '80-as években Zuzu-Vető néven Méhes Lóránt Zuzu festőművésszel közösen készített képeket, szobrokat és installációkat. 1981-ben Lukin Gáborral és Méhes Mariettával megalapították a Trabant zenekart. A kilencvenes évek eleje óta Dániában és Svédországban lakik. Digitális képalkotással foglalkozik, dalszövegeket és zenét ír, énekel, ukulelén, kaossilatoron játszik. Képzőművészként és fotóművészként világszerte rendszeresen kiállít, zenészként rendszeresen koncertezik, albumokat ad ki.

1991-től feleségével, Maria Lavman svéd festőművésszel a képzőművészetben és a zenében (Mia Santa Maria és Kína Herceg néven) közösen is alkotnak. Két gyermekük van.

Munkássága
1966-67 körül barátaival megalapította az Apropó Film Fotó experimentális film-és fotóstúdiót, 1972-ben a KOMMUNART nevű művészeti akció csoportot. Kísérleti, intuitív zenét játszó zenekarai a Cacao, a Travellers Group, a Kec-Mec, az Apropó Film Fotó Rajzfilmzenekar és a Hymnus.

Első önálló fotókiállítása 1974-ben a budapesti Bercsényi Klubban volt, Spárgatárlat címen. Fényképeit a fotótörténet progresszívitásuk és érzékenységük miatt kiemelkedőnek tekinti. A képek nagyobb egységeket alkotnak: szociofotók, aktok, portrék, önarcképek, és "épített képek", azaz manipulált képek. Az 1970-es évektől kezdve fényképei létrehozásakor különböző technikai eljárásokkat is alkalmazott (nagyítás, szolarizáció, átfestés, színezés, ragasztás), ahogyan az 1990-es évektől digitális képeit és videóit is szoftverekkel manipulálja.

1976-1980 között Hajas Tibor fényképészeként, munkatársaként és barátjaként részt vett Hajas performanszainak előkészítésében, megvalósításában, és a performanszokból származó művek (fotósorozatok) létrehozásában (nagyítás, tablók), amelyeket mindkettejük nevével publikáltak.

1981-től Méhes Lóránt Zuzu festőművésszel Zuzu-Vető néven létrehozták a "posztmodernista szociálimpresszionta neobarbár" művészetet. Rajzokat, festményeket, szobrokat, és textiltárgyakat készítettek. Filctollal, színes ceruzával, ecsettel és spray-el dolgoztak, gyöngyökkel, tollakkal, és különböző használati tárgyakkal díszítve festményeiket (Két szív az egy pár, 1983), textiltárgyaikat (Munkazászló és Szerelemzászló). Kövekből, csontokból, tranzisztorokból applikálták szobraikat (Űrkőkorszaki szoborportrék), és "kertnek" nevezték rézgáliccal és porfestékkel rendkívül színessé tett installációikat (Űrkőkorszaki pinceszoborkert, 1982, Szentendre, Vajda Lajos Stúdió). Minden önálló kiállításuk egy installáció, amely műveikból és rögtönzött szobraikból, személyes tárgyaikból és talált tárgyakból áll (Tibeti őszi tábor, 1981, Budapest, Fiatal Művészek Klubja, Új zászlók, új szelek 1983, Budapest, Fiatal Művészek Klubja). Kiállításmegnyitóikon zenei improvizációkat adtak elő.

1981-ben Lukin Gáborral és Méhes Mariettával megalapították a Trabant zenekart, Xantus János forgatókönyvíró, rendező Eszkimó asszony fázik című filmjének ötletét és szereplőit adva. További együttesei: Malter és Vödör, Gagarin pilótazenekar, Európa Kiadó. 1998-ban Koppenhágában Ivan E.Vinczével megalapította az I.M.A.-t (International Music Association).

A 90-es évektől digitális zenével és digitális képalkotással is foglalkozik. NahTe néven digitális nyomatokat és videókat készít (Pixelvideók). Egyik kedvenc anyaga a bubble wrap (pukkanós fólia csomagoló anyag), amelyet festmények, szobrok, fotók, videók alapanyagaként használ.

2018-ban a Balaton együttes tagjaival elkészítette a Jó idő albumot.  Duo,

2007-2019 között digitális képeiből iron print technikával készítette festményeit, és nyomtatta ki a Duo, Fluo Trio sorozatot.

2013-ban, majd 2020-2021-ben készültek a IPP (Iron Print Paintings) festmények, a festményekről pedig videók.

Videócsatornája: NahTe53-Youtube.

Kiállításai

Válogatott egyéni kiállítások

 1973 • Koncept art, Gül Baba türbe, Wágner villa, Budapest
 1974 • Spárgatárlat, Bercsényi Klub, Budapest
 1975 • Fiatal művészek klubja, Budapest
 1977• Galerie Schweidebraden, Berlin
 1979 • Ásatás – fotóvers kiállítás, Bercsényi Klub, Budapest
1981• Bam-Bam… Új traktor, üzemiroda, (Zuzu-Vető), Bercsényi Klub, Budapest • Zelfportret en Dialog, Galerij Micheline Swajcer, Antwerpen •Tibeti őszi tábor, (Zuzu-Vető), Fiatal Művészek Klubja, Budapest
 1982 • Űrkőkorszaki pinceszoborkert, (Zuzu-Vető), Vajda Lajos Stúdió Galéria, Szentendre • Rabinext Galéria, Budapest
 1983 • Új zászlók, új szelek, (Zuzu-Vető), Fiatal Művészek Klubja, Budapest • Ifjúsági Ház, Székesfehérvár
 1984 • Zászló, obo, oboszutrák, (Zuzu-Vető), Stúdió Galéria, Budapest
 1985 • Galeria Mana, Wien
 1986 • Fotók, Liget galéria, Budapest
 1987 • Műfénnyel megvilágított fényképművek, Almássy téri Szabadidőközpont, Budapest • New York-New York, Liget galéria, Budapest • Budapest-New York, Kunstlicht Galerie, Frankfurt
 1988 • Liget Galéria, Budapest • Gitárlecke földönkívülieknek, Almássy téri Szabadidőközpont, Budapest
 1989 • Galerie Notuno, Geneve • Méhes Lóránt, Vető János, Gasner János, Kiss László kiállítása, Margitszigeti Víztorony, Budapest
 1991 • Still life, Fészek galéria, Budapest • Make babies not art, (Maria Lavmannal ) Liget galéria, Budapest
 1993 • Panel, Fotografisk Galleri, Koppenhága
 1994 • Panel, Liget galéria, Budapest • Utolsó képek, Vizivárosi galéria, Budapest • Láthatatlan, hallgathatatlan, hallatlan, Újlak galéria, Budapest
 1995 • Hommage to the holy light-bulb, Overgaden, (Maria Lavmannal) Koppenhága • Encuentro en Copenhagen – Reencuentro en Bilbao, La Brocha, Bilbao
 1996 • Hang on Vision, (Maria Lavmannal), Politiken, Koppenhága • Tisztelet a Szent Villanykörtének, Articsók galéria, Budapest
 1997 • In memoriam Tibor Hajas, Ernst Múzeum, Budapest
 2003 • Színezett régi levegő, Magyar Fotográfusok Háza (Mai Manó Ház), Budapest
 2005 • Hajas Tibor (1946-1980): KÉNYSZERLESZÁLLÁS, Ludwig Múzeum – Kortárs Művészeti Múzeum, Budapest
 2006 • Zuzu-Vető, Kisterem galéria, Budapest
 2007 • Mari és Évike (Zuzu-Vető), Me-Mo-Art, Budapest • Zuzu-Vető munkák – Installációművészet a 80-as években, Ernst Múzeum, Budapest • Fotografi i fokus, ADDO, Malmö
 2008 • Csodálatos semmi, Me-Mo-Art, Budapest • NahTe 14 videohaiku és más elektrofirkák, Pixel galéria, Budapest • Hajas Tibor Vető Jánossal készített utolsó munkái, Vintage galéria, Budapest
 2009 • Fotográfiák 1975-1986, Vintage gallery, Budapest
 2012 • Köztéri művészet – szobafirkák és a csodálatos semmi, A Magyar Fotográfusok Háza – Mai Manó Ház Verzó Online Galériája
 2013 • Szellemes – NahTe idéz, Budapest Galéria, Budapest • RELAX (Maria Lavmannal és Lotte Tauberlassennel közösen), Nordisk kunst, ADDO, Malmö • Feltámadunk – Zuzu-Vető, Neon galéria, Budapest
 2016 • Virrasztás, acb NA, Budapest
2018 • Vintage, Bubble Wrap, Pixel, galeri ffrindiau, Budapest • Colored Old Air, Höörs Konsthall, Höör
2019 • Introduction, Galleri Rostrum, Malmö
2020 • Duo, Trio, Fluo, aqb Project Space, Budapest
2020 • Nárcisz és Psyché és más régi új, Pegazus Galéria, Szentbékkálla
2021 • Domän (Erdély Dániellel és Maria Lavman Vetővel), Galleri Rostrum, Malmö
2022 • Megtalált képek, Nemdebárka, Horány – Szigetmonostor

Válogatott csoportos kiállítások

 1974 • Képregény, Fiatal Művészek Klubja, Budapest
1975 • Montage, Fiatal Művészek Klubja, Budapest
1976 • Expozíció, Hatvany Lajos Múzeum, Hatvan
1978 • Moderne Fotografie aus Ungarn, Galerie Schwaindebraden, Berlin
1979 • Biennale of Sydney, The Art Gallery of New South Wales, Sydney • Works and Words, De Appel Arts Centre, Amsterdam
 1980 • 6 Hongaarse kunstenaars, Museum Hedendaagse, Antwerpen • Hetvenes évek, Bercsényi Klub, Budapest, • II. Esztergomi Fotóbiennálé, Esztergom
 1981 • Tény-kép – A magyar fotográfia története 1840-1981, Műcsarnok, Budapest • Art und Telekomunikation, Wien-Berlin-Budapest • Tendenciák 6., Óbuda Galéria, Budapest
 1982 • Stúdió '82, Műcsarnok, Budapest • Egoland Art, Fészek Galéria, Budapest
1983 • Álomi szép képek, Óbuda Galéria, Budapest
 1984 • Kép '84, Fészek Galéria, Budapest • Frissen festve, Ernst Múzeum, Budapest • Plánum '84 Művészeti Fesztivál, Almássy téri Szabadidő Központ, Budapest • Gud & Gramatik, Charlottenborg, Koppenhága
 1985 • Kortárs művészet Magyarországon, Csók Képtár, Székesfehérvár • Kortárs magyar művészet, Third Eye Centre, Glasgow • Pillanatkép, Műcsarnok, Budapest • Magyar festők három generációja, Künstlerhaus, Graz • 101 tárgy, Óbuda Galéria, Budapest • Unkarin maalaustaidetta 1945-1985, Kaupungin talon Ala-Aula, Helsinki
 1986 • 1ère Biennale Internationale pour la Photographie d`Art et de Recherche, Galerie Dongue, Párizs • "Idézőjelben", Csók Képtár, Székesfehérvár
 1986-87 • Aspekte Ungarischer Malerei der Gegenwart, Erholungshaus der Bayer AG, Leverkusen / Stadhalle Hagen / Stadthaus Galerie, Münster •
 1987 • Mágikus művek, Budapest Galéria Lajos u., Budapest • Ungarsk samtids forografi, Museet der Fotokunst, Odense • Out of Eastern Europe: Private Photography, MIT Visual Arts Centre, Cambridge, Massachusets
 1988 • Zeitgenössische Ungarische Fotografie, Fotogalerie, Wien
 1989 • Más kép, Ernst Múzeum, Budapest • Mai magyar művészet, Národni galerie, Prága és Domumeniá, Pozsony • XI. Országos Kisplasztikai Biennálé, Pécs • Junge Ungarische Fotografen, Galerie Treptow / Galerie Pumpe, Berlin • The Metamorphic Medium : New Photography from Hungary, The Allen Memorial Museum, Oberlin College, Ohio
 1990 • TRIUMF det ubeboelige, Charlottenborg, Koppenhága / Műcsarnok, Budapest
 1991 • The General Art strike Exhibition – Perpetuum Mobile (Maria Lavmannal), Genf, Antwerpen
 1991-1993 • Kortárs képzőművészet 1–2., Ludwig Múzeum, Budapest
 1992 • XL. Fotográfiák, Pajta Galéria, Salföld  • Ung Skulptur, (Maria Lavmannal), Skovlunde Bypark, Skovlunde
 1993 • Variációk a Pop Art-ra, Ernst Múzeum, Budapest • 2nd Hungarian Epigon Exhibition, Kafnagel International Kulturfabrik, (Maria Lavmannal) Hamburg •
 1994 • Csoportkép, Vigadó Galéria • 80-as évek – Képzőművészet, Ernst Múzeum, Budapest
 1997 • Diaszpóra (és) művészet, Magyar Zsidó Múzeum, Budapest
1999 • Dokumentum, Műcsarnok, Budapest
 2000 • Média Modell – INTERMÉDIA – Új képfajták – Interaktív technikák, Műcsarnok, Budapest
 2001 • Regard Hongrois – Magyar tekintet, Palais Royal, Párizs
 2002 • Új munkák, Liget Galéria, Budapest
 2005 • What's Next? – Neighborhoods and Artistic Practices, Koppenhága • Neofoton, Szentendre • FMK – azok a 80-as évek, Kogart, Budapest
 2006 • Karneval-Karneval, Fleet Street Theater, Hamburg • Urban Contact Zone: Sharing Areas – Using Places, Hamburg
 2008 • Neoavantgárd tendenciák, Zichy kastély, Budapest
 2009 • Karneval-Karneval, Erlangen / Berlin • Gallery Night Budapest, Mucius Galéria, Budapest, MOST, Gödör Terasz Galéria, Budapest, Kontor Orkester Rostrum, Malmö • "Brännaren 2", Malmö • Björn Ross Micro Art Festival, Rostrum, Malmö • Berlinale special on Central European Cold War Films, Berlin
 2010-12 • Global All Stars koncertek, Koppenhága, IslandsBrygge
 2012 • Az égbolt másik fele. Válogatás a Ludwig Múzeum gyűjteményéből, Ludwig Múzeum, Budapest
 2013 • A meztelen férfi, Ludwig Múzeum, Budapest
 2014 • Waldsee 1944 és Kegyetlen levelezés – Antiszemita képeslapok 1895-1930, 2B Galéria, Budapest • Fétis, Tabu, Ereklye, Vajda Lajos Stúdió, Szentendre • 1, 2, ! ? "Itt jelentkezzen öt egyforma ember" – Koncept palimszeszt, vagy a magyar konceptuális művészet, Paksi Képtár, Paks • Magyar Hippik, Karton Galéria, Budapest
 2016-2017 • Progressive Intentions, Magyar Intézet, Isztambul
2017 • Summer Show, acb Galéria, Budapest • Kétirányú mozgás Focus: Hungary, viennacontemporary, Bécs • With the Eyes of Others, Elizabeth Dee Gallery, New York
 2018 • Promote, Tolerate, Ban: Art and Culture in Cold War Hungary, Wende Museum, Culver City, Kalifornia
2019 • Korszakkincsek, Duna Múzeum, Esztergom
2020 • ORD SOM BILD /BILD SOM ORD 2020 – Artists Books inspirerat av Lasse Söderbergs poesi, Galleri Rostrum, Malmö
2021 • PARIS PHOTO, Párizs

Diszkográfia

 Zuzu-Vető: Új zászlók, új szelek/ New Flags new Winds. in:Artpool Rádió 3. Kazetta rádió/rádió munka. Budapest-Bécs telefonkoncert, 1983.
Trabant: Eszkimó asszony fázik, 1984
 Európa Kiadó: PopZENe, 1987
 Európa Kiadó: Koncert a Zichy kastélyban, 1986/1990
Az Éjszakák Egyesült Álma / United Dream of Night's: A Hymnus én vagyok avagy az Apropó film-fotó rajzfilm zenekar igaz története, 1988
Apropófilmfotórajzfilmzenekar: A forradalom után
 Mia Santa Maria és Kina Herceg: Kézimunka, 1990
Mia Santa Maria-KINA Herceg: Johnny gitár (filmzene, Söth Sándor filmje), 1991
Mia Santa Maria-KINA Herceg: Mosolyszünet, 1994, BAHIA
 IPUT/NahTe: NEWNEEFLUGREEZ HYMNS, 2002
The Intuitiv Trio: Concert, 2004
 NETRAF-music: NETRAF-titok (száj- és körömfájás). Műzene műfényben
 BHGIM Intuitive records
 Tapintat együttes: Jó idő. Vető János Kína herceg NahTe CsendVan (ejtsd: XendFan) és az ötödik Balaton első közös albuma a Balaton tagjaival, 2018.
 NahTe: Süss fel Nap! VillanyNahTe 2018. október

Filmográfia

 Apropó Film Fotó experimentális filmek (dr. Horváth Putyi, Járai Alfréd, Vető János kísérleti filmjei, 1967-1987) – rendező, operatőr, szereplő
 Öndivatbemutató (Hajas Tibor rövidfilmje, 1976) – operatőr
 Az éjszaka ékszerei (Hajas Tibor videója, 1976) – operatőr
 Vendég (Hajas Tibor videója, 1976) – operatőr
 Női kezekben (Xantus János rövidfilmje, 1981) – szereplő
 Trabantománia (BBS Vető János kisjátékfilmje, 1982) – rendező, operatőr
 Müller Anna (Antal István rövidjátékfilmje, 1982) – szereplő
 Eszkimó asszony fázik (Xantus János játékfilmje, 1983) – szereplő, dalszövegíró
Ex-kódex- fejezetek a kis magyar fénytanból (Müller Péter Sziámi játékfilmje, 1983) – szereplő
 A szobáról (BBS Experanima Vető János kísérleti filmje, 1984) – rendező, operatőr
 Spirál (BBS Experanima Vető János kísérleti filmje, 1984) – rendező, operatőr
 A fekete macska (Antal István kísérleti filmje, 1987) – zeneszerző
 Forradalom után (Szirtes András játékfilmje, 1990) – zeneszerző
 Johnny Gitár (Sőth Sándor játékfilmje, 1991) – forgatókönyvíró, főszereplő, zeneszerző
 Blue Box (Káldor Elemér játékfilmje, 1992) – szereplő
 Elszállt egy hajó a szélben I-II. – KEX (Kisfaludy András dokumentumfilmje, 1998) – szereplő

Kötetei

Színezett régi levegő. A NahTe bemutatja Vető János és Kína herceg fényképmunkáit digitális nyomatokon + néhány eredeti ezüstzselatin című, a Magyar Fotográfusok Házában 2003. május 24. és 2003 július 8. között rendezett kiállítás katalógusa, CD melléklettel; szerk. Beke László, Csizek Gabriella; Magyar Fotográfusok Háza–MTA Művészettörténeti Kutatóintézet, Budapest, 2003 (Magyar Fotográfusok Háza könyvei)
Képkorbácsolás. Hajas Tibor (1946-1980) Vető Jánossal készített fotómunkái / Image whipping. Tibor Hajas' (1946-1980) photo works with János Vető; szerk. Beke László, angolra ford. Kozák Csaba; MTA Művészettörténeti Kutatóintézet, Budapest, 2004
Bereményi Géza–Vető János: Antoine és Désiré. Fényképregény az 1970-es évekből; fotó Vető János; Corvina, Budapest, 2017

Írásai

 Vető János: A fény éjszakái [Hajas Tiborról]; in: Orpheus, 1999/21.
 Vető János: NahTe (Vető Kína Herceg): Essay a Fotóról, 1999
 NahTe: Neon mese, 2013
Vető János: Valahol a világűrben elsüjedt egy ürhajó". Január Herceg Tova (Baksa-Soós János) kiállítása.

Díjak

 2010 Munkácsy Mihály-díj
 2009 Major János-díj • NEWNEEFLUGREEZ Jézus Krisztus-díj
 1987 Derkovits Gyula ösztöndíj (Méhes Lóránttal közösen)

Interjúk

 Galántai György beszélgetése Vető Jánossal; in: Artpool Levél, 1983/2. (február)
 Szőnyei Tamás: "Nekem tetszik az élet". Vető János képzőművész, muzsikus. Magyar Narancs, 1995. jan,. 12..
 Beke László beszélget Vető Jánossal. MTV, Picasso Kalandjai, Szerk. Július Gyula, Rend. M. Nagy Richárd. Készült az Utolsó képek című kiállítás alkalmából, Vízivárosi Galéria, 1994
 Bárdos Deák Ágnes: "Az ukulele nagykövete". Vető János képzőművész, zenész; Magyar Narancs, 2013
 Balla István–Németh Róbert: "Ki ez a KISZ-titkár, aki a halott oroszlánt rugdossa?"; hvg.hu, 2015. jún. 22.
 Prieger Zsolt: Karizma és politikai giccs: Vető János Hajas Tiborról és halálról – Velence apropóján; in: 168 Óra, 2017. ápr. 25.
"Megkérdeztem Gézát lenne-e kedve visszarepülni az időben" – Vető Jánossal beszélgettünk a Bereményi Gézával közösen készített könyvük, az Antoine és Désiré című fényképregényről
Balázs Kata és Szabó Eszter Ágnes: "Tiszta fekete, és csak egy vonal volt rajta" – #nyolcvanasévek
Balázs Kata és Szabó Eszter Ágnes: Metszéspontok: Eszkimó asszony fázik I-III.
 Szabó Eszter Ágnes:"Valahogy belekeveredtem a rock and rollba". Interjú Vető Jánossal
 Szabó Eszter Ágnes:"Megkérdeztük, használhatjuk-e a hangszórókat". Interjú Vető Jánossal
Paula Ely: János Vető Nahte. Photoculture  2018/08. 01.
Legát Tibor: "Ácskapocs is kell". Vető János képzőművész
Balázs Kata: Lepkegyűjtemény a falon.  Interjú Vető Jánossal
Farkas Laura: "Ennek itt még nincs vége, ez egy köztes állapot"
Michael Diemar: The Hungarian Neo-Avante-Garde. The Classic/5.
A Fehér Vera: "Szerintem a digitális fénykép egyedül képernyőn életképes…" – beszélgetés Vető Jánossal. PUNKT 2021/05/10.
Forián Szabó Noémi: Vető János: Iron Print Paintings. Artmagazin online

Források

 Hajas Tibor: Töredék az "új fotó"-ról. Vető János (sz. 1953) munkáinak ürügyén. Mozgó Világ 1877/1. 68-70.
 Beke László: Hogyan viselkedjünk a fényképezőgép előtt (és hogyan mögötte). Fotóművészet 1976/1. 46-49.
 Beke László: A fotó és más. In: NahTe: Színeszett régi levegő. Magyar Forográfusok Háza. 2003. 26-31.
 Szilágyi Sándor: Neoavantgard tendenciák a magyar fotóművészetben 1965-1984
Kürti Emese: Vető János:Virrasztás. acb galéria, 2016.
Balázs Kata: Színezett régi levegő. NahTe bemutatja Vető János és KINAherceg fényképmunkáit. in: Balkon, 2003/6-7.
 Bényi Csilla: Művészeti események a Bercsényi Klubban 1963-1987. in: Ars Hungarica 2002/1.
Forián Szabó Noémi: Nyugi, nyugi a szociálimpesszionista neobarbár kerék forog. in: Artmagazin 2006/6.
Galántai György beszélgetése Beke Lászlóval a Vető–Zuzu kiállítás kapcsán. in: Artpool Levél, 1983/2. (február)
Paksi Endre Lehel: NahTe: Csodálatos semmi – Me-Mo-Art Galéria
Pálffy Lajos: Régi arcok tűnnek fel – Vető János kiállítása
Rózsa T. Endre: Vető János. Egy elsüllyedt kontinens túlélője. in: Fotóművészet, 2015/3.
"NahTe videohaikui és elektrofirkái" – Vető János videóinak kiállítása
Carolina Söderholm: En ungersk bubblare. János Vető aka NahTe: Colored old air, Höörs konsthall, t o m 18/11.
Forián Szabó Noémi: Vető János NahTe: Duo-Trio-Fluo. in: Balkon.art
Carolina Söderholm: Hä är konsten du inte ska missa. Carolina Söderholm guidar till utställningar värda ett besök. in: Sydsvenskan 25 September 2021

Jegyzetek

Magyar fotográfusok
Magyar képzőművészek
Magyar zenészek
Budapesten született személyek
1953-ban született személyek
Élő személyek


text:
Q: Excel VBA to change internet explorer advanced settings My current program that I am using, from excel, navigates to a web page where it downloads a lot of information.  I primarily do this from excel because the data is in excel format.
I have it go to the page, click on a link and the open/save/cancel dialog box appears it automatically selects save and saves it to the last folder I saved anything in.  Then it waits for the dialog box title to read "download complete" then close it and initiates the next download.
The issue I'm running in to, is that other people who use this program have the "close dialog box when download completes" option selected, and this interrupts the overall process.
Is there a way to change this setting from the excel VBA code, or will I need to explore a different method of dealing with this issue?  Having the program do a direct download URL string is also not viable as the website needs to be logged in to and the request must come from the open window, (I have already attempted that method).

A: Use URLDownloadToFile to download from the internet, trying to use IE will lead to other issues:
VBA - URLDownloadToFile - Data missing in downloaded file

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


What does your computer setup look like?
You will find some interesting comparisons here.
At the last meeting of the Digital Photographic SIG John Lucke discussed some of the features available in "GIMP", a graphics editor program.
John has put together a basic introduction to the program for those members who might like to try the program on their own computers. Click here for a PDF version or here for a Microsoft Word version.
This month the group will examine ways of customizing and using some of the features of Foxit Reader 5.1.
There will also be a question and answer session to discuss any computer problems members have encountered during the month.
At this meeting the group will take a close look at the computer and web based versions of Microsoft OneNote.
OneNote has been a part of Microsoft Office since 2003 but it is often overlooked by users. Nevertheless, it is a very useful program for gathering free-form information and multi-user collaboration.
A question and answer session will also be held to discuss communications issues at the meeting.


Halo and Buster celebrated another birthday this week. My kids are growing up so fast. As in years past, I prepared a homemade treat for them to enjoy. In 2017, it was dog-friendly cookie dough inspired by DO in New York. I heat-treated whole wheat flour to a safe 170 degrees F and mixed in other dog-safe ingredients, including peanut butter and honey, to create what I like to call puppy dough. Served plain, Halo and Buster enjoyed every bite. However, it's a celebration, so mix-ins were necessary.
I raided the treat bar at Petco to purchase essentials for making three puppy dough flavors: berry, carob chip and cookies and cream. Carob chip was my "everyday" flavor, one I knew both pups would enjoy. Cookies and cream was prepared especially for Halo because she loves "chocolate" flavors. In contrast, Buster is a berry fan. I know this because he quickly eats anything berry flavored, but always seems hesitant of other sweet treats. What a picky little guy. I love it though! Happy birthday my loves.
Puppy dough is cookie dough for dogs. It includes heat-treated whole wheat flour and sweet flavors of banana, honey and apples.
In a bowl, heat-treat the whole wheat flour by microwaving on high for 1 minute. Stir and repeat until the flour reaches a minimum of 160 degrees F.
Meanwhile, mash the banana, peanut butter and honey in a bowl. Stir in the flour.
Mix in enough apple sauce to achieve the desired consistency. Less will be used if toppings are omitted. If using toppings, the crumbs will absorb some of the moisture, so more apple sauce is required.
Complete the puppy dough by mixing in crushed dog treats of choice.


text:
layout: page
title: Villegas Industries Executive Retreat
date: 2016-05-24
author: Nicholas Simpson
tags: weekly links, java
status: published
summary: Fusce porta lacinia sem, vel molestie.
banner: images/banner/meeting-01.jpg
booking:
  startDate: 03/18/2018
  endDate: 03/21/2018
  ctyhocn: YNJBCHX
  groupCode: VIER
published: true
---
Sed eu leo orci. Maecenas ut mi id mi mattis aliquet in et mauris. Donec ac massa metus. Ut eu eros leo. In condimentum lorem a egestas ultrices. Aliquam accumsan egestas massa vehicula bibendum. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit.

* Curabitur dignissim leo ac rhoncus semper
* In blandit risus nec eros sodales, eget imperdiet libero pretium
* Pellentesque condimentum elit quis nunc pellentesque eleifend
* Integer iaculis erat et dui dictum pulvinar.

Maecenas porta tellus id pretium ultricies. Quisque in purus semper, tristique arcu ut, suscipit velit. Nunc sit amet mattis nisi. Nunc fringilla semper magna, quis dignissim nisl bibendum quis. Class aptent taciti sociosqu ad litora torquent per conubia nostra, per inceptos himenaeos. Quisque lobortis tellus eget gravida tincidunt. Suspendisse id arcu sollicitudin, tincidunt risus elementum, tempor neque.
In vel gravida ipsum. Pellentesque id est faucibus, hendrerit ante vitae, tempus odio. Fusce ultrices gravida molestie. Nunc dictum magna vitae interdum pretium. Nulla aliquam, sapien vitae consectetur pulvinar, magna urna pellentesque tellus, id ultrices sem sem eget nisl. Pellentesque libero turpis, iaculis et dolor eget, volutpat aliquam ligula. Mauris sed mi nisi. Praesent sodales sodales condimentum. Cras quis sagittis eros, at tincidunt diam. Donec ante ipsum, efficitur vel turpis nec, vehicula fermentum justo. Maecenas sollicitudin, diam at viverra posuere, neque risus cursus turpis, non tincidunt augue massa vitae lorem.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Omar Dewachi is Assistant Professor of Medical Anthropology and Public Health at American University of Beirut (AUB). Trained as a medical doctor in Iraq during the 1990s, Dewachi received his doctorate in social anthropology from Harvard University in 2008. He is finishing a book manuscript entitled Ungovernable Life: War and Mandatory Medicine in Iraq (forthcoming, Stanford U Press), and is one of the contributors to the Costs of War Project at Brown University.


Summer is almost over and fall is coming along in New Zealand and Pacific countries. This year, your Fall may be full of pleasant scents, may be filled with simple wishes, may be getting a nostalgia atmosphere.
Whatever it will be, just have a look in the last Fall in Hagley Park, New Zealand and prepare for a simply yet peaceful Fall in 2016. Wish all of you have a wonderful Fall with your loved ones and family.


The Chapel Hill Analytical and Nanofabrication Laboratory (CHANL) was established in 2006 as part of the Institute for Advanced Materials, Nanoscience and Technology, but has since moved into the Department of Applied Physical Sciences. CHANL operates as a shared instrumentation laboratory open to UNC researchers from all departments as well as to researchers from other universities, government labs, and industry. User fees are charged for instrumentation usage to recover the cost of materials, supplies, and instrumentation maintenance.


This is a placeholder page for Kitty Feagan, which means this person is not currently on this site. We do suggest using the tools below to find Kitty Feagan.
You are visiting the placeholder page for Kitty Feagan. This page is here because someone used our placeholder utility to look for Kitty Feagan. We created this page automatically in hopes Kitty Feagan would find it. If you are not Kitty Feagan, but are an alumni of Newark Memorial High School, register on this site for free now.


MacabreCon is Canada's newest 2-day Horror Culture Film & Music Festival based in Toronto, Ontario - attracting 3000+ people from all over the world.
The 2013 edition of MacabreCon is proud to be celebrating 30 years of Christine, Cujo and Children of the Corn. Three iconic landmarks of horror film history.
MacabreCon is seeking 2 suitable up-n-coming bands to be a part of the nightly music program. If there's anything gloomy, dark or freaky about your sound - please submit your music!
A distinguished panel of judges consisting of film & music industry professionals will select 2 bands to be a part of this cinematic celebration.
Macabrecon does not cover transportation or accommodation costs. Macabrecon will provide 6 drink tickets per band + $100 performance fee.


text:
World's Toughest Mudder: Hotlanta vs. Sin City
I feel like people are now expecting me to do a comparison every year since I started writing this post-race comparison article after 2016's World's Toughest Mudder (WTM) (here's the one from last year comparing all four years of WTM Vegas: Leaving Las Vegas). With WTM at a new location for the first time in half a decade, the inevitable question is which venue is harder and how do they compare. So let's cut to the point and get started. To make the comparison easier I broke it apart into topics: terrain, weather, obstacles, water, and X factor.
The terrain in Las Vegas was nice with hard packed dirt that was almost like running on roads or improved trails. In fact, I wore road shoes for several of the years I ran the venue without traction issues. Atlanta was muddy and more technical terrain. While not as muddy as I was expecting to have a nice pair of trail/Obstacle Course Racing (OCR) shoes is recommended (I rocked Merrell's All Out Crush 2 for 24 hours). The average elevation of the Vegas course was 830 feet per lap, significantly more than the 663 feet per lap of Atlanta. While that may not seem that big of a difference if you run 50 miles, that's nearly an extra 2000 feet of climbing over the course of the race.
Verdict: Las Vegas had more elevation gain but easier dirt to run on. It also felt like Vegas' uphill sections and downhills were longer and steeper. With less elevation, the Atlanta course seems easier on paper, but the technicality and mud of the course make it a draw. Overall, I assess it as neutral.
The weather changes every year. When Tough Mudder Headquarters (TMHQ) announced they were going to Atlanta, people screamed "HOTLANTA" and I even saw a couple of the infamous #nowetsuitsneeded hashtags come back. However, if you looked at the weather, you would have seen Atlanta is historically colder on WTM weekend than it was in Vegas. Vegas highs were usually in the 70s during the day and dropped to mid-40s or 50's (year dependent). Atlanta, by contrast, started at 43 degrees (went up to 48 before sunset) then plummeted down to below 32 degrees (as evidence by obstacles freezing). Colder weather means more neoprene, which means more restricted movement and carrying more weight.
Verdict: It's easy to look at the low and give it to Atlanta, but there is something to be said about contrast. When your body is used to running in 70-degree weather and the temperature drops 30 degrees it's a shock to your system. Atlanta had about a 12-degree difference from starting temp to lows (18 if you go high temps to low temps). This contrast can make the temperature feel worse than it actually is. Still, the cold of Atlanta was worse, no doubt. As I type this (7 days post event) my fingertips are still numb. Atlanta was definitely harder but at least there was no windstorm like there was in 2014.
Las Vegas averaged around 21 obstacles per lap. On paper, Atlanta said 26, but three of those were on the electricity route, so realistically it is about the same. However, things like Lumberjacked (horizontal logs elevated awkwardly high off the ground) were like six (or eight?) obstacles in one. Las Vegas averaged 11 must complete obstacles, while Atlanta had 18. Must complete typically implies you can't fail them, which means they are probably easier.
Everest was the normal 2.0 option (similar to 2015) without an option for Everest 1.0 (no curved lip) or 2.1 (taller with no curved lip). The Cliff (now The Stacks) was basically the same except you now had to climb up, which was much easier than it looked. So that's really a non-issue.
Most of the event obstacles are a toss-up taking slightly longer or shorter than previous versions. The only comment I will make is that there was definitely less upper body/grip obstacles, specifically if you took the electricity route. After 8 pm (when electricity opened), I only had to do one upper body/grip obstacle per lap (Funky Monkey 2.0 Revolution). Compare that to the hardest year of upper body/grip obstacles, 2017, when there were four grip obstacles per lap (Funky Monkey, Kong Infinity, Hanging Tough and Rope a Dope). However, the one grip obstacle is comparable to 2014/2015.
Verdict: So many obstacle variables here that it is hard to say. Some took more time and some took less time so it's a draw in a lot of categories/comparisons. I'm going to go with my gut instinct though and how I felt personally. Atlanta's obstacles were on par with 2014-2016's WTM but definitely easier than 2017's in the upper body/grip category.
Atlanta had the potential to be worse with 11 obstacles that you could get wet (that is if you failed almost all of them and took the obstacle route over the electricity route). Due to extreme cold temperatures, I'm pretty sure I saw volunteers quitting, TMHQ did shut down several of the water obstacles reducing the number of times you got wet and limiting full submersion (Underwater Tunnels (basically a swim under floating barrels) closed and they turned off the spouts on Augustus Gloop (a climb up a wall with water pouring down)).
Verdict: It's a toss-up again. Viewed in isolation there was not as much water on the course of Atlanta (due to obstacle closures and electricity route). However, the colder temperatures made getting wet feel much worse.
X-Factor:
This encompasses all of the other variables that weren't already covered. The new location means new challenges and fear of the unknown. I could see the nerves higher on even experienced racers coming into this event. Previously the X factor included things like start time (Vegas had a 10 am start in 2014, 2 pm in 2015, and noon the final two years), which is now a non-issue since noon seems to be the new standard.
Also includes things like obstacle opening (2014 had an obstacle-free lap, 2015/2016 obstacle free hour and 2017 rolling obstacle opening after an hour). The rolling opening after an hour of 2017 and 2018 are definitely easier than both other options (and allow for a smoother race with fewer lines at obstacles early in the event).
Add in things like the Golden Carabiner and the Electricity Route option and I think Atlanta was easier due to a reduction in upper body obstacles across the board.
The biggest X-factor though is you. Your personal strengths and weaknesses play a large role here. Maybe you're better at the upper body, maybe you're scared of electricity and maybe you love the cold. Each person's hard and biggest challenge might be slightly different.
Verdict: Toss up again.
If all of these things were weighted equally, it would be a tossup between Atlanta and Las Vegas. However, for most people, they will hit muscle failure at some point in their upper body and end up doing lots of penalties. So essentially the race turns into a death march (scroll through the middle of the night Facebook videos). While all of these factors affect the outcome, I think the weather is what people remember most (nope, still can't feel my fingertips). That being said, while I personally found parts of the course easier than the Vegas courses, the cold made this a truly challenging experience.
The finisher mileages were on par with 2014's WTM and historically lower than 2015-2017. If there is any indication, that is it. Despite athletes improving due to training, knowledge (as provided in my book Mud Run Guide's Ultra-OCR Bible) and experience, mileages returned to 2014 standards. I said it after the event, "I haven't been this impressed with the WTM Community ever". Those that braved the cold all night you should feel proud that was quite an accomplishment regardless of your mileage. For those that pushed themselves to a breaking point, hold your head up, you can't get better if you don't push to failure at some point. Looking forward to another chilly year in Hotlanta in 2019.
Watermarked pictures from Brad Kerr Photography
All others pulled from the WTM Community Facebook group
By Evan Perperis|2018-11-21T10:23:38-05:00November 22nd, 2018|Race Recap|0 Comments
About the Author: Evan Perperis
Evan is a Conquer The Gauntlet Pro, NSCA-CPT, owner of Strength & Speed along with a Hammer Nutrition sponsored athlete whose biography "Ultra-OCR Man: From Special Forces Soldier to Record Setting Pro OCR Athlete" is now available (hard copy, digital or audiobook). His highlights included 2018's 1st place Team Atomik at World's Toughest Mudder, 2nd Pro Team Coed at North American OCR Championships in 2018 and yearly record setting Ultra-OCR events for charity raising more than $26,000. With 60+ overall OCR podium finishes, he captured his training techniques and strategies in his books, "Strength & Speed's Guide to Elite Obstacle Course Racing", "Mud Run Guide's Ultra-OCR Bible", "Conquering The Gauntlet", "CTG Pro Team Workouts To Go" and covered some of his favorite OCR events in "MRG's Ultimate OCR Bucket List" (all available from www.teamstrengthspeed.com ).

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
China and Japan drive resurgence in clean energy investment
The world has invested 16 per cent more in renewable energy in the first nine months of 2014 than was spent at this time last year; however advocates warned that it is still short of what is needed to meet C02 reduction limits by 2020.
Meanwhile the European Union, which sought to lead the way in promoting the technology, there has been a significant drop in investment recorded, according to the data released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
$175bn has been spent this year on solar power plants, wind farms and other forms of green power, arresting a decline in investment in the sector over the past two years, with China and Japan prominent in that revival.
Michael Liebreich, chairman of the advisory board at Bloomberg New Energy Finance welcomed the figures, boosted by a $12bn spend on solar power by China and $8.6bn overall clean energy spend by Japan.
"However, there is no room for complacency because clean energy investment of between $200bn and $300bn a year is not large enough to herald the rapid transformation of the power system that experts say is required if the world is to see a peak in CO2 emissions around 2020. There is still too much policy instability holding back investor confidence," he said.
China's total solar installations are expected to reach about 14 GW of generating capacity by the end of this year, or nearly a third of the world's total, while overall Japanese clean energy investment reached 17 per cent compared with the same period last year, again because of the growth of solar plants.
In Europe, once a powerhouse of green energy, just $8.8bn was committed in the third quarter, down from $12.1bn one year ago. UK and Italian investment fell 74 per cent.
RenewableUK's Director of Policy Gordon Edge told Power Engineering International: "It's disappointing to see that the UK is bucking the global trend of higher investment in renewables. However, there are occasions when there are spikes in investment over quarters and this could be due to the volatility of the offshore wind market at the moment."
"We have seen fewer projects reach investment decision in the past year, but we can expect this to change, especially with greater certainty surrounding the CfD mechanism. The protracted EMR process can also be a contributing factor to these figures".
Global clean energy investment soared from $60bn in 2004 to $205bn in 2008, then hit a plateau during the financial crisis before rising to a peak of $317bn in 2011, the Bloomberg New Energy Finance figures show."
But it then sagged to $285bn in 2012 and $251bn in 2013, partly because of uncertainty about subsidies in Europe.
Previous articleE.ON files for $481m in damages against German government
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Foster kittens are the house guests of your dreams. Not only are they adorable; they won't cramp your space, raid your fridge, play loud music or party all night.
See how you can open your home and heart—just once—to kittens in need. Then get access to your exclusive Kitten Care Pawckage, full of tips on fostering itty bitty kitties. Fostering saves lives!
*Based on one home fostering kittens throughout an entire kitten season. Number of kittens available for fostering varies by area.
Ready to Foster? Get Started Today!
Shelters and rescues across the country need animal lovers to foster cats and kittens. We can only save as many lives as we have foster caregivers available. Find a participating shelter or rescue near you!
Calling all NYC cat lovers: Animal Care Centers of NYC is looking for kitten fosters! Help make a difference for kitties in the city by signing up.
Do you live in the Los Angeles area, love animals, and are able to temporarily care for animals in need? We urgently need kitten and cat fosters this kitten season – sign up today to save lives!
Want to become a "Kitten Cuddler?" Miami Dade Animal Services is recruiting foster parents to help care for and feed the county's young and abandoned kittens. Sign up today!
Don't Fall for Fake Mews!
Don't let myths get the best of you! Get the facts about kitten fostering as we break down common fostering misconceptions.
Mama and True had a rough start when we first met them. But now, they are happy, healthy and looking for a loving home!
Learn how the ASPCA is tackling kitten season with NYC's first high-volume kitten nursery!


How many times do you read an article about a study that concerns food and cancer? And how many times does the information contradict the last study you read about? Believe it or not, there is a way to make sense of it all: here is how to demystify studies on food and cancer, just ask yourself five simple questions.
A good illustration of what I am talking about is the controversy surrounding soy and breast cancer. For years, soy was strictly forbidden by many oncologists for women with ER+ breast cancer because of its potential to mimic estrogen. But now studies are suggesting the opposite – that it may be beneficial.
One widely publicized study took place in China from 2002 to 2006, and found a reduced risk of death and breast cancer recurrence in women who consumed the most soy foods. So you might ask yourself, should women with ER+ breast cancer start eating soy? Here's how to start piecing together an answer.
Question Number 1: Who are the subjects of the study? Are they similar to me? Right off the bat, consider any studies done with animals or in a laboratory as preliminary only. These are first steps in a process, and only hint at findings to come. If humans are involved in the study, on the other hand, you will want to know how close are they in age, gender, or ethnicity to you. And in a study on breast cancer, you also want to know if the subjects were pre- or post-menopausal.
In the Chinese study of soy, the participants were living in China and ranged in age from 20 to 75 years. That's a broad range. They were all breast cancer survivors, but the article didn't mention the type of breast cancer, or the stage at which they entered the control group.
Question Number 2: What was the goal of the study? How does it apply to me? In the Chinese study, the researchers were looking at the relationship between soy consumption and the rates of death or recurrence. Note that it didn't address reducing the onset of cancer, or how soy would interact with treatment modalities.
Question Number 3: Did the study involve whole foods or supplements? It makes a big difference. Individual nutrients are often praised for their benefits but are effective only as a part of food, not as a supplement. Soy foods are similar. The Chinese women in this study ate whole soy foods, and did not take any soy supplements.
Question Number 4: Does the study look valid? This is the big question and where your common sense comes into play. You want to take a look at how the study was designed. In other words, how did the researchers go about exploring the problem?
In our example, the researchers found over 5,000 women with breast cancer. They asked the women questions about their eating habits, and then observed them for 5 years. They sorted the women by the amount of soy foods they ate to see if there would be a different outcome for the women who ate more soy versus less soy.
Sounds simple, but just think about it. If someone asked you what you ate yesterday, you might be able to give a reasonable answer. But if they asked you what you ate over the past year, or the past 5 years, it would be a different story. It is virtually impossible to get truly accurate information like this. And unlike testing a drug, where you can give some people the drug and some the placebo, you can't control for diet over the length of time needed in a study of this type.
You might also notice that the study doesn't come out and say soy reduces the risk of recurrence or death. That's because the study can't prove it was the soy that produced the effect. It only shows an "association" between women who ate more soy and improved outcomes.
Why did this happen? We don't know. It could be because they ate more soy, but it could be because they were more health conscious and exercised more, ate more fruits and vegetables or went to the doctor more often. Most researchers try to take all these factors into account, but they could miss something.
In studies on food and disease, size and duration matter. This study gets high marks on both of these factors. It included 5,000 participants, which provides a wider, more reliable sample, and lasted five years, a reasonable number in a study on cancer.
Question Number 5: How do the conclusions of this study stack up against similar studies? Think about other things you've read on the subject, and how they compare with what you've just read. Here's where you can let your "geek" side shine.
On subjects as complicated as food and cancer, it is very helpful to keep a spreadsheet or list that tracks results of various studies. Apply and answer the above questions for each one. How are the studies similar? How do they differ? Which ones seem strongest to you? Which ones come closest to your situation?
Keep in mind that you are not alone. Use your healthcare team – your nutritionist, nurse, and doctor to help you navigate these complicated issues. They can help you answer the questions posed here, or if there are any blanks in the information, they can get the original research article for you. They can put the results into practical terms for you.
In our current example, more and more studies are coming to the conclusion that reasonable amounts of soy food (not supplements) are considered acceptable for women with ER+ breast cancers. While soy may not be a "miracle" food, it doesn't appear to be harmful.
But be assured that this also isn't the last word on this issue.


text:
Business News›Amarinder Singh
Will decide on Sidhu's resignation Wednesday: Punjab CM
"I will decide on his resignation only tomorrow, after I return to Chandigarh," Amari...
Can't help if Navjot Singh Sidhu doesn't want to do his job: Amarinder Singh
There has to be some discipline in the government if it is to fu...
Navjot Singh Sidhu hasn't submitted his resignation to me: Punjab CM, Amarinder Singh
Punjab CM: I have never opposed Mrs Sidhu,in fact I was...
Why it's so hard for Congress to replace Rahul Gandhi
Is Congress really moving away from the Gandhi family, as the intense search for Rahul'...
Head of the royal family of the erstwhile State of Patiala, he was Chief Minister of Punjab from 2002 to 2007. Presently, he is the sitting President of the Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee (PPCC). He was also the Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the 16th Lok Sabha till 2016, having been chosen for the position after his election as a Member of Parliament from Amritsar, where he defeated the prominent BJP leader Arun Jaitley. He was inducted into the Congress by Rajiv Gandhi, who was his friend from school and was first elected to the Lok Sabha in 1980. In 1984, he resigned from Parliament and from Congress as a protest against the Army action during Operation Blue Star. Five-time CM Parkash Singh Badal is facing perhaps the toughest political challenge Amarinder Singh takes him on from the Lambi seat. He is Congress' chief ministerial candidate.
Party: Congress
Constituency: Lambi
Rift between GenNext, 'mom's Cong' out in open
A "GenNext" Congressman, seen to have been promoted by Rahul, suddenly said the election of leaders in Youth Congress should be stopped immediately.
Navjot Singh Sidhu sends resignation to CM Amarinder
However, the Chief Minister was away in Delhi to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There was no comment on the issue from the Chief Minister's Office.
Pakistan, India agree on '80 per cent and beyond' on Kartarpur draft agreement: Foreign Office Spokesperson
Before the start of the meeting, Faisal said Pakistan is committed to opening the corridor for Indian Sikh pilgrims on the 550 birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev.
Sidhu vs Captain war peaks: Power minister missing from political hoardings in Punjab
Navjot Singh Sidhu vs Punjab CM Captain Amarinder Singh war at its peak. Sidhu is missing from the political hoardings in Punjab.Sidhu vs Ca...
India bans 'Sikhs for Justice', Punjab CM urges to treat outfit as terror organisation
Punjab CM Captain Amarinder Singh has welcomed the centre's decision to ban 'Sikhs for Justice' group and at the same time urged Government ...
Disappointed with Rahul Gandhi's resignation as Congress chief: Amarinder Singh
3 Jul, 2019, 08.56PM IST
Rahul Gandhi formally resigned from the post of the party president on Wednesday, saying he was responsible for the loss in the Lok Sabha elections.


These are all the cards featuring Sparta Rotterdam players. Click on a card to see bigger versions of the cards featuring Sparta Rotterdam players in that set. Click on the name of the set to see all the cards in that set.


text:
\section{Introduction}
Quantitative models for forecasting the spread of communicable disease are a valuable tool for policymaking during pandemics, such as the ongoing COVID-19, and endemics, such as gonorrhea. Compartmental models are simple, widely used, quantitative tools for studying the spread of such infectious disease~\cite{Kermack1927,Capasso1978,Hethcote1994,Brauer2008,Capasso2008, Diekmann2021}.
For instance, an appropriate compartmental model for COVID-19 pandemic is the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model~\cite{Bertozzi2020,Faranda2020,Faranda2020a,Linka2020,Yakubu2021,Vakil2022,Wu2020,Feng2021,Irons2021}, depicted in Fig. \ref{fig:1}A. As shown in Fig.~\ref{fig:1}C, if the model parameters are chosen properly, the deterministic SEIR model accurately forecasts the spread of the Omicron variant in the US.

However, the model parameters, such as the infectivity rate $\lambda$, the incubation rate $\alpha$ and the curing rate $\gamma$, are a priori unknown. These parameters can be estimated by collecting and averaging data over the population. Such data is inevitably riddled with uncertainties which has motivated the development and use of stochastic compartmental models.
\begin{figure*}[!t]
	\centering
	\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{covid_fig4}
	\caption{Summary of stochastic modeling and results for the Omicron variant of COVID-19 pandemic in the US. \textbf{A:} SEIRS deterministic compartmental model suitable for airborne diseases, such as COVID-19. The parameters in SEIRS model are: i) the average adequate contact rate $\lambda$ of each individual (also called the infectivity rate), ii) the average incubation rate $\alpha$, which is the inverse of the average incubation (or latency) period, during which the individual has contracted the virus but is not infectious yet,  iii) the average curing rate $\gamma$ which is the inverse of the average time each individual needs to recover, iv) $1/\rho$ is the average period after which immunity wanes off. Links between compartments shown in dashed lines are those omitted in the SEIR model of \eqref{eq:SEIR} we use here.  \textbf{B:} cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in the US. Light red frame highlights the Omicron variant wave (Dec. 2021-Apr. 2022). \textbf{C:} COVID-19 forecast obtained by least-squares fitting of the deterministic SEIR model to the data for Omicron cases. Contact rate $\lambda$ of fitted SEIR model is then stochastically perturbed by noise $\xi(t)$ with intensity $\sigma$, around its mean value $\bar{\lambda}$.  \textbf{D:} Results of white noise stochastic SEIR models for increasing noise intensity $\sigma$, obtained from 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.  Mean trajectories of COVID cases are shown, equipped with error bars inside which the 50\% of trajectories lie. \textbf{E:} Same as panel D except that $\xi(t)$ is the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck noise with correlation time $\tau=1$ week.}
	\label{fig:1}
\end{figure*}

In stochastic compartmental models, one assumes that the model parameters are stochastic processes. The most common approach is to assume that the parameter comprises a constant mean perturbed with white noise~\cite{Gray2011,Dureau2013,Maki2013,Faranda2020a}. For instance, the infectivity or contact rate is often modeled as $\lambda(t) = \bar{\lambda} +\sigma\xi(t)$, where
$\bar\lambda$ is the mean, $\xi(t)$ is the standard white noise, and $\sigma$ is a constant controlling the noise intensity~\cite{Gray2011,Ji2014,Cai2015,Meng2016,Cai2020}. Here, we first show that, although this assumption seems reasonable, it leads to systematic underestimation of the disease spread. For instance, Fig.~\ref{fig:1}D shows the SEIR prediction of the Omicron wave in the US with the infectivity rate $\lambda$ modeled as white noise. The resulting stochastic SEIR model consistently underestimates the true cumulative number of  COVID cases. Making matters worse, as the noise intensity $\sigma$ increases, the white noise stochastic model further underestimates the number of COVID cases.

As we discuss in the Results section, this behavior is not specific to the SEIR model, but is also observed in SIR and SIS models.
This indicates that the stochastic compartmental models with white noise have a fundamental flaw: they imply that greater uncertainty in the model parameters leads to a less severe spread of the disease. This model behavior is certainly dubious since greater ignorance about the disease, e.g., its infectivity rate, does not in reality make a pandemic less severe. The counter-intuitive and unrealistic implications of modeling parameter uncertainties with white noise had also been noted in oncology models, where increasing the noise intensity leads to tumor eradication, a behavior that is not replicated in actual cases~\cite{DOnofrio2008}.

In contrast, as shown in figure~\ref{fig:1}E, modeling uncertainties by correlated noise alleviates such contradictory behavior. Increasing the intensity of correlated noise leads to forecasts that are essentially in line with the deterministic model. But, as one expects, the uncertainties around the stochastic predictions grow as the noise intensity grows.

Here, for the first time, we present a principled modeling of uncertainties in the infectivity rate of epidemiological models. Starting from reasonable assumptions on the contact rate of each individual, and using the central limit theorem and Doob's theorem on Gaussian Markov processes, we show that the only admissible model for such uncertainties is the mean-reverting Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (OU) process. We demonstrate the implications of our results on two examples, SIS model of sexually transmitted disease and SEIR model of COVID-19. For the SIS model, we derive a closed-form solution for the probability distribution of the infected population and show that the OU-based model always has a peak near the deterministic equilibrium.
In contrast, modeling uncertainties with white noise erroneously predicts a less severe disease spread, or even its eradication, as the uncertainties grow.
Similar observations are made for the SEIR model of COVID-19 using Monte Carlo simulations and the Johns Hopkins University database of COVID-19 cases.

We note that different types of noise, other than white noise, have also been used to model uncertainties in biological systems~\cite{Allen2016}. For instance, log-normal noise have been used to model uncertainties in COVID-19 transmission under the presence of superspreaders \cite{Faranda2020a}.
OU process has already been used in the context of sexually transmitted and bacterial diseases \cite{Wang2018}. However, its rigorous justification from first principles is presented here for the first time.

\section{Stochastic modeling of the average contact rate}
There are several parameters in the compartmental models of infectious disease. For instance, in the SEIR model, these are the infectivity or average contact rate $\lambda$, the incubation rate $\alpha$ and the curing rate $\gamma$. The source of their uncertainty is the underlying dynamical interplay between biological and social factors.  Incubation and curing rates depend mainly on the biology of the virus.  However, the contact rate $\lambda$ depends on both biological factors, e.g., how easily the virus transmits, and social factors, e.g., how many individuals an infected person comes in contact with. As a result, the contact rate is the main source of uncertainty  in epidemiological models. Therefore, for the sake of simplicity, we assume that the average incubation and curing rates are deterministic constants and  that the contact rate $\lambda$ is the only stochastic parameter. This is a common choice in the literature on stochastic compartmental models \cite{Gray2011,Linka2020,Neri2021}.

We denote the total number of adequate contacts of the $n$th individual, up to time $t$, by $C_n(t)$.  A contact is adequate if it is sufficient for the transmission of the virus~\cite{Hethcote1984}. The contact rate of the $n$th individual is then defined as the rate of change of $C_n$, i.e., $\lambda_n = \mathrm d C_n/\mathrm d t$. Since $C_n(t)$ is not necessarily differentiable, it is more convenient to work with its increments, $\Delta C_n(t)$,  that is the number of contacts of the $n$th individual over the time interval $[t,t+\Delta t]$, where $\Delta t$ is a small time increment.  The contact rate is then approximated by $\lambda_n(t) \simeq \Delta C_n(t)/\Delta t$.

We treat the incremental contacts $\Delta C_n(t)$ of each individual as a stochastic process satisfying the following assumptions:
\begin{enumerate}[label = (\arabic*)]
\item There is no dependence between the incremental contacts of different individuals. In other words, we assume  $\left\{\Delta C_n(t)\right\}_{n=1}^N$ is a collection of $N$ independent random processes.
\item The number of contacts each individual makes in $[t,t+\Delta t]$ does not depend on the history of their contacts in previous time instances; thus $\Delta C_n(t)$ is a Markov process, where $N$ is the population size.
\item The mean and covariance of the incremental contacts satisfy
\begin{subequations}\label{eq:Cn_mc}
\begin{equation}\label{eq:mean}
	\mathbb{E}\left[\Delta C_n(t)\right]=\mu\Delta t,
\end{equation}
\begin{equation}\label{eq:covariance}
	\mathrm{Cov}\left[\Delta C_n(t),\Delta C_n(s)\right]=\frac{\sigma_0^2}{2\tau}\exp\left(-\frac{|t-s|}{\tau}\right)\Delta t^2,
\end{equation}
\end{subequations}
where $[t,t+\Delta t]$ and $[s,s+\Delta t]$ are disjoint time intervals and $\tau$ is the correlation time.
\end{enumerate}

\eqref{eq:Cn_mc} models the assumption that the incremental contacts of every individual are proportional to the time interval $\Delta t$. \eqref{eq:mean}, where $\mu$ is a constant, models the assumption of no seasonal variability in contacts. The exponential factor in \eqref{eq:covariance} constitutes the simplest model for temporally correlated incremental contacts with finite correlation time $\tau$. Note that, although the incremental constants $\Delta C_n(t)$ have the same mean and covariance, we do not assume that they are identically distributed.

Assumptions  (1)-(3) determine the properties of the contact rate $\lambda_n(t)$.
In particular, $\lambda_n(t)$ inherits the Markovian property of $\Delta C_n(t)$. Also,  the mean value and covariance of $\lambda_n(t)$ are determined via Eq.~(\ref{eq:Cn_mc}),
\begin{subequations}
\begin{equation}\label{eq:mean2}
\mathbb{E}\left[\lambda_n(t)\right]=\mu,
\end{equation}
\begin{equation}\label{eq:covariance2}
\mathrm{Cov}\left[\lambda_n(t),\lambda_n(s)\right]=\frac{\sigma_0^2}{2\tau}\exp\left(-\frac{|t-s|}{\tau}\right).
\end{equation}
\end{subequations}
The exponentially decaying correlation of \eqref{eq:covariance2} for the contact rate of each individual was also assumed in the agent-based model of Ariel and Louzun~\cite{Ariel2021}.

Having defined the contact rate $\lambda_n(t)$ for every individual, we now introduce the contact rate averaged over the whole population as $\lambda(t)=(1/N)\sum_{n=1}^N\lambda_n(t)$.

Now,  we consider $K$ time instances $t_1<\cdots<t_k<\cdots<t_K$ and define the vectors $\bm{\lambda}_n=[\lambda_n(t_1),\cdots,\lambda_n(t_k),\cdots,\lambda_n(t_K)]^T$, which samples the stochastic process $\lambda_n(t)$ at the said time instances. The random vector $\bm{\lambda}_n$ has mean value $\bm{\mu}$ with $\mu_k=\mu$,  and covariance matrix $\bm{\Sigma}$ with $\Sigma_{k\ell}=\mathrm{Cov}\left[\lambda_n(t_k),\lambda_n(t_\ell)\right]$, $k,\ell=1,\ldots K$. For the average vector $\bm{\lambda}=(1/N)\sum_{n=1}^N\pmb\lambda_n$, the multidimensional central limit theorem \cite{Vaart1998} implies
\begin{equation}
\sqrt{N}(\bm{\lambda}-\bm{\mu})\sim\mathcal{N}_K(0,\bm{\Sigma}),
\end{equation}
where $N$ is the total population, and $\mathcal{N}_K$ is the $K$-variate normal distribution.
Note that $\bm\lambda$ can be viewed as the discrete samples of the average contact rate $\lambda(t)$, so that
$\bm{\lambda}=[\lambda(t_1),\cdots,\lambda(t_k),\cdots,\lambda(t_K)]^T$.

Thus, the stochastic process $\lambda(t)$ of the average contact rate has the following properties:
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item It is temporally homogeneous, since for every sequence $t_1<\cdots<t_k<\cdots<t_K$, all the $K$-variate joint distributions of $\lambda(t_1),\cdots,\lambda(t_K)$ are invariant to translations in time.
\item It is a Markov process, since it is the average of independent Markov processes \cite{Stoyanov1987,Rozhkov2010}.
\item For every pair of two time instances, $t$ and $s$, its values $\lambda(t)$ and $\lambda(s)$ follow a bivariate Gaussian distribution.
\end{enumerate}
Doob's theorem on Gaussian Markov processes~\cite{Doob1942} implies that the only two possible stochastic processes with properties (i)-(iii) are the uncorrelated white noise and the correlated Ornstein--Uhlenbeck noise. White noise is also ruled out since we have already proven by the central limit theorem that $\lambda(t)$ and $\lambda(s)$ are not independent. Therefore, the only choice for $\lambda(t)$  is to be an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, with mean value
\begin{equation}\label{eq:mean3}
\mathbb{E}\left[\lambda(t)\right]=\mu.
\end{equation}
and autocovariance
\begin{equation}\label{eq:covariance3}
\mathrm{Cov}\left[\lambda(t),\lambda(s)\right]=\frac{\sigma^2}{2\tau}\exp\left(-\frac{|t-s|}{\tau}\right),
\end{equation}
with $\sigma=\sigma_0/\sqrt{N}$.

It is well-known that the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, with mean (\ref{eq:mean3}) and stationary autocovariance (\ref{eq:covariance3}), is generated by the stochastic differential equation,
\begin{equation}
\mathrm d \lambda = \frac{1}{\tau}(\mu - \lambda)\mathrm d t +\frac{ \sigma}{\tau} \mathrm d W,
\end{equation}
where $W(t)$ is the standard Wiener process~\cite{Hanggi1995}. We note that, as the correlation time $\tau$ tends to zero, the uncorrelated white noise is retrieved \cite[Sec. 6.6]{Toral2014}. In the Results section, we use this limiting relationship to compare results from stochastic compartmental models under white and Ornstein--Uhlenbeck noise.

For notational simplicity, we write $\lambda(t)=\bar{\lambda}+\sigma\xi(t)$,  where $\bar{\lambda}=\mu$ is its mean value, $\sigma$ is its noise intensity, and $\xi(t)$ is a standard Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process with zero mean and autocovariance given by \eqref{eq:covariance3} with $\sigma=1$.

In the course of our work, we became aware of a recent study~\cite{Jing2022} which also invokes the multidimensional central limit theorem, in the context of SIS equation on networks, to model uncertainties as white noise.
However, as we argued above and show in the Results section, the correct model for uncertainties is the correlated OU process.

\section{Results}
\subsection{Stochastic SIS models}
Before discussing the COVID-19 data, we examine the simpler SIS model where we derive the probability distribution of the
infected individuals in closed form. This allows us to highlight the differences between the white noise and OU noise with no ambiguity.
The SIS model is governed by the equations
\begin{subequations}\label{eq:SIS}
	\begin{equation}\label{eq:S}
		\frac{\mathrm d S}{\mathrm d t}=-\frac{\lambda}{N}SI+\gamma I,
	\end{equation}
	\begin{equation}\label{eq:I}
		\frac{\mathrm d I}{\mathrm d t}=\frac{\lambda}{N}SI-\gamma I,
	\end{equation}
\end{subequations}
with the susceptible (S) and infected (I) compartments where $N=S+I$ is the total population.
We assume that the curing rate $\gamma$ is a deterministic constant and the contact rate $\lambda(t)=\bar\lambda+\sigma\xi(t)$ is a stochastic process.
We consider two types of noise $\xi(t)$: white noise and the standard OU noise. It is customary to express the results in terms of the infected fraction $X= I/N$. Note that since the total population $N$ is conserved, we have $S= N(1-X)$.

For stochastic SIS models, we are able to obtain the asymptotic distribution of the infected fraction $X$ of the population, in closed form (see Appendix \ref{sec:stochastic_models}).  As seen in Fig. \ref{fig:3}, the theoretical asymptotic distributions are always in excellent agreement with Monte Carlo simulations.

\begin{figure*}[!t]
	\centering
	\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{sis_fig}
	\caption{\textit{(central figure)} Bifurcation diagram for the SIS model under white noise perturbation of its contact rate, depending on two dimensionless parameters, the basic reproduction number $R_0=\bar{\lambda}/\gamma$ and the relative noise variance $\sigma^2/\bar{\lambda}$. The four regions shown depict different shapes for the distribution of the asymptotic number of infected $X$ as a fraction of the population. \textbf{I:} Unimodal with mode at a non-zero $X$.  \textbf{II:} Bimodal with one mode at $X=0$. \textbf{III:} Unimodal with mode at $X=0$. \textbf{IV:} Delta function at $X=0$. \textit{(peripheral figures A-D)} Distributions for the asymptotic infected fraction for gonorrhea ($R_0=\bar{\lambda}/\gamma=1.4$, $\gamma=1/20$ days$^{-1}$ \cite{Hethcote1984}) for increasing noise intensity: $\sigma=0.2\bar{\lambda}$ for panel A, $\sigma=0.5\bar{\lambda}$ for B, $\sigma=0.8\bar{\lambda}$ for C, $\sigma=1.2\bar{\lambda}$ for D.  In each figure, the stable equilibrium of the original deterministic model is marked by a red dashed line.  The points corresponding to panels A-D cases are also marked on the central figure. The additional case E, not corresponding to a disease, is also shown as a representative of region II of the bifurcation diagram. In peripheral figures,  we also depict the distribution under Ornstein--Uhlenbeck noise with correlation time half the characteristic time scale of the system (see Materials and Methods).  Open circles correspond to distributions obtained from 50,000 samples of direct Monte Carlo simulations, while solid lines mark the exact distributions. In panel D, the distribution corresponding to white noise perturbation is a delta function at $X=0$, and thus it is depicted as a vertical arrow.}\label{fig:3}
\end{figure*}

The asymptotic distribution depends on two dimensionless parameters (see Appendix \ref{sec:stochastic_models}), the deterministic basic reproduction number $R_0=\bar{\lambda}/\gamma$ and the relative variance $\sigma^2/\bar{\lambda}$ of the noise.  Thus, we are able to produce the bifurcation diagram shown in Fig. \ref{fig:3},  where the possible asymptotic forms of the distribution are depicted.  For $R_0>1$, the deterministic SIS model ($\sigma=0$),  has one stable equilibrium at $X=(\bar{\lambda}-\gamma)/\bar{\lambda}$, and one unstable equilibrium at $X=0$. However, the stochastic SIS model with white noise exhibits a richer asymptotic behavior that includes parameter regions of bistability and regions where $X=0$ is stable.

We first focus on $R_0=1.4$ which is the relevant basic reproduction number for gonorrhea \cite{Hethcote1984}.  As shown in Fig. \ref{fig:3}, by increasing white  noise intensity, the infected fraction distribution undergoes a transition. For low noise intensity, the distribution exhibits one mode, close to the stable deterministic equilibrium (see Fig. \ref{fig:3}A). As the noise intensity increases, the distribution mode shifts towards zero (see Fig.~\ref{fig:3} B, C).
Increase the white noise intensity further results in the eradication of the disease from the population, since the distribution of the infected fraction $X$ becomes a delta function at zero (see Fig.~\ref{fig:3}D). We emphasize that this is an unrealistic model behavior since it implies that greater ignorance about the contact rate $\lambda$ will lead to disease eradication.

In Figs.~\ref{fig:3}A-D, we also plot the distribution obtained under an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck perturbation of the contact rate in the SIS model.  As correlation time of the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck noise, we choose $\tau=0.5(\bar{\lambda}-\gamma)^{-1}$, where $(\bar{\lambda}-\gamma)^{-1}$ is the characteristic time scale of the deterministic SIS model (see Materials and Methods).

We observe that, compared to white noise perturbation, correlation in noise has the effect of suppressing transition away from the deterministic equilibrium.  For noise levels as high as $80\%$, the mode of the distribution remains close to the stable deterministic equilibrium. For very high noise levels (such as $\sigma=1.2\bar{\lambda}$ of Fig. \ref{fig:3}D) the distribution under Ornstein--Uhlenbeck perturbation also exhibits an additional mode at 0. However, most of distribution mass is still located around the deterministic equilibrium, whereas, for the same noise levels, the SIS model with white noise perturbation predicts the eradication of the disease from the population.

\subsection{Omicron variant in the US}
Next, we study the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in the US, using the SEIR model,
\begin{subequations}\label{eq:SEIR}
	\begin{equation}
	\frac{\mathrm d S}{\mathrm d t}=-\frac{\lambda}{N}SI
	\end{equation}
	\begin{equation}
	\frac{\mathrm d E}{\mathrm d t}=\frac{\lambda}{N}SI-\alpha E
	\end{equation}
	\begin{equation}
	\frac{\mathrm d I}{\mathrm d t}=\alpha E-\gamma I
	\end{equation}
	\begin{equation}\label{eq:removed}
	\frac{\mathrm d R}{\mathrm d t}=\gamma I,
	\end{equation}
\end{subequations}
with the susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), and removed (R) compartments. It shares the same set of parameters with the SIS model as well as the additional parameter $\alpha$ denoting the average incubation rate. We note that more complex models which include a vaccinated compartment, e.g., the Susceptible-Vaccinated-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SVEIR) model \cite{Ghostine2021}, can also be used.
Following earlier studies~\cite{Bertozzi2020,Faranda2020,Faranda2020a,Linka2020,Yakubu2021,Vakil2022,Wu2020,Feng2021,Irons2021}, here we treat individuals that are effectively vaccinated as part of the removed compartment and therefore use the simpler SEIR model.

Our main COVID-19 results are shown in Fig.~\ref{fig:1}. First, we determine the parameters of the deterministic SEIR model by fitting its trajectory to the data from the cumulative COVID-19 cases in the US \cite{JohnsHopkins} for the period of December 2021-April 2022, during the Omicron wave (see Fig.~\ref{fig:1}B,C).  The fitting procedure is described in Materials and Methods.  Then we consider the stochastic contact rate $\lambda(t) = \bar\lambda+\sigma\xi(t)$ which is perturbed around its deterministic value $\bar\lambda=1.54$ days$^{-1}$. For the perturbation $\xi(t)$, we consider both white and Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes, and perform Monte Carlo simulations of the respective stochastic SEIR models (see Fig.~\ref{fig:1}D,E). The noise intensity is varied between 10\% and 60\% of the average contact rate $\bar{\lambda}$.  For the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck noise, we also have to choose the value of the correlation time $\tau$.  Despite the large number of studies, precise data on the temporal correlation of contact rates is scarce \cite{Tkachenko2021}.  For the results shown in Fig.~\ref{fig:1}E, we choose one week as the correlation time, motivated by the weekly pattern in human activity~\cite{Goh2008,Jiang2012,Kivela2012,Saramaki2015}. The results are similar for shorter and longer correlation times (see Appendix \ref{sec:SEIR}).

\begin{figure*}
	\centering
	\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{covid_pdfs}
	\caption{Distributions of the cumulative COVID cases in the US, as determined from SEIR models with stochastically perturbed contact rate.  Model parameters are the same as in Fig. \ref{fig:1}. Stable equilibrium point of the deterministic SEIR is shown as red dashed line. \textbf{A:} SEIR with contact rate perturbed by white noise. \textbf{B:} SEIR with contact rate perturbed by Ornstein--Uhlenbeck noise with correlation time $\tau=1$ week.}\label{fig:2}
\end{figure*}

As shown in Fig.~\ref{fig:1}D, increasing the intensity of both white and OU noise results in an expected increase in variance of the forecasted omicron cases. However, we observe that, in the white noise case, increasing the noise intensity results in the mean to underestimate the asymptotic number of cases, predicting significantly less spread of the disease in the population. For instance, when the noise intensity is at 60\%, the forecasted cumulative number of COVID cases is underestimated by approximately 20\%.  This result is unrealistic, since higher uncertainty in the contact rate does not in reality result in a less severe pandemic.

On the other hand, the results in Fig. \ref{fig:1}E for the correlated Ornstein--Uhlenbeck noise are reliable. The mean trajectories stay close to the deterministic prediction and the data. As the noise intensity increases, the predictions attain slightly higher mean values of the asymptotic number of cases, compared to the value predicted by the deterministic model. For instance, at 60\% noise intensity, the forecasted cumulative number of COVID cases increases by approximately 4\%.

The mechanism by which SEIR model under white noise underestimates the size of COVID-19 pandemic is better understood by inspecting the noise-induced qualitative changes in distribution of the asymptotic number of cases (see Fig. \ref{fig:2}). In absence of a closed-form solution, we use Monte Carlo simulations to determine the distribution corresponding to the stochastic SEIR model.

As shown in Fig. \ref{fig:2}, for small noise intensities, the distributions of both white and OU stochastic models are unimodal and narrow, with their modes approximately coinciding with the deterministic equilibrium, marked by a dashed line. The distribution under Ornstein--Uhlenbeck noise is slightly less diffusive than the one under the white noise perturbation, which is consistent with the \textit{sharpening effect of correlated noise} \cite{Hanggi1995,Mamis2021}.  As expected, increase in noise intensity results in distributions that are more diffusive, and in distribution modes that progressively move away from the deterministic equilibrium, a phenomenon called the \textit{peak drift} \cite{Hanggi1995,Mamis2019d,Mamis2021}. However, the trends in peak drift are opposite in the two perturbations; the distribution mode under white noise moves towards lower numbers of cases, while under Ornstein--Uhlenbeck noise, it shifts towards higher values.

The main difference between the two stochastic perturbations, as shown in Fig. \ref{fig:2}, is the following. Whereas the distribution corresponding to Ornstein--Uhlenbeck noise stays always unimodal, the distribution corresponding to white noise undergoes a bifurcation at $\sigma\simeq0.5\bar{\lambda}$, where an additional mode in the low COVID cases regime ($\simeq 5\times 10^7$ cases) emerges, and the distribution becomes bimodal.
This bimodality enables noise-induces transitions towards the lower number of cases, which in turn explains why the white noise model underestimates the severity of the pandemic (see Fig.~\ref{fig:1}D).

\section{Conclusions}
Our study highlights the challenges of incorporating parameter uncertainties in compartmental epidemiological models. We showed that, although common, modeling these uncertainties with white noise is fundamentally flawed, since the corresponding stochastic models systematically underestimate the number of infected individuals.

We then proposed a principled modeling of the average contact rate, which accounts for the uncertainties in human social behavior. By considering temporal correlations in each individual's behavior, we showed that the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process is the correct model for uncertainties in the contact rate. We demonstrated the efficacy of our proposed stochastic model on the SIS model of sexually transmitted disease and the SEIR model of COVID-19 pandemic.

The proposed Ornstein--Uhlenbeck model has one unfavorable characteristic: it allows for rare instances where the contact rate becomes negative, which is not epidemiologically allowed (see Appendix \ref{sec:SEIR}). Nonetheless, the resulting model is amenable to mathematical analysis and produces accurate forecasts that do not suffer from the idiosyncrasies of white noise.
As such, Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process serves as a reliable minimal model of average contact rates.

Finally, the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process has a time correlation parameter whose value needs to be derived from empirical data; such data is currently very scarce~\cite{Watts2006,Tkachenko2021,mistry2021}. Hence, our work indicates the need for more empirical studies that quantify the correlation time in close proximity interactions.

\section{Materials and Methods}
\subsection{SIS model}
In the SIS model (\ref{eq:SIS}), $N$ denotes the total population. The term $(\lambda/N)SI$ is the simplest form for the disease transmission, and it is based on the assumption of homogeneous mixing of population \cite{Tolles2020a}. Transmission term without the division with $N$ is sometimes used \cite{Gray2011}; however, this choice is not supported by empirical evidence~\cite{Rhodes2008}. Under the constant population assumption $S+I=N$,  the SIS model (\ref{eq:SIS}) can be reduced to one scalar ordinary differential equation. Consider the infected as a fraction of the population by defining $X=I/N$ for the state variable. Then the scalar equation for SIS model reads
\begin{equation}\label{eq:X}
\frac{\mathrm d X}{\mathrm d t}=\lambda X(1-X)-\gamma X.
\end{equation}
For $R_0>1$, \eqref{eq:X} has an unstable equilibrium at $X= 0$ and a stable equilibrium at $X=(\lambda-\gamma)/\lambda$. The characteristic Lyapunov time of the system is $(\lambda-\gamma)^{-1}$; see Appendix \ref{sec:deterministic_SIS}.  We obtain the stochastic SIS model by perturbing $\lambda$ in \eqref{eq:X} by noise: $\lambda=\bar{\lambda}+\sigma\xi(t)$.  For the case of white noise perturbation, the evolution of distribution of $X$ is governed by the classical Fokker--Planck equation~\cite{Gardiner2004}. Recently, we have also formulated an approximate nonlinear Fokker--Planck equation for the case of correlated noise perturbations~\cite{Mamis2019d,Mamis2021}. Since \eqref{eq:X} is scalar, the stationary solutions of the Fokker--Planck equations are available in closed form in both cases of white noise and correlated noise (see Appendix \ref{sec:stochastic_models}). These closed-form stationary solutions are used in Fig.\ref{fig:3}. For the Monte Carlo simulations, numerical solutions of stochastic SIS and SEIR models are generated by a predictor-corrector scheme~\cite{Cao2015}.

\subsection{SEIR model and fit to COVID data}
For the SEIR model (\ref{eq:SEIR}), the total population $N$ is assumed constant and equal to the US population of 329.5 million. The data is obtained from the COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University~\cite{JohnsHopkins} and was analyzed using a publicly available MATLAB code~\cite{VargaLajos2020}. December 3, 2021 is considered as the initial time $t_0$, i.e., the start of the Omicron wave in the US.  The parameter values are determined by least squares fitting, resulting in the basic reproduction number $R_0=\lambda/\gamma=1.85$, incubation rate $\alpha=1/3.5$ days$^{-1}$, and curing rate $\gamma=1/1.2$ days$^{-1}$.  The initial values of the exposed $E(t_0)$, the infected $I(t_0)$, and the removed $R(t_0)$ at the beginning of the Omicron wave were chosen consistent with the Johns Hopkins data base to be 0.14\%, 0.18\% and 14.88\% of the total population, respectively.
To obtain the cumulative COVID-19 cases from the SEIR model,  we use the relation $\int_{t_0}^tI(s)\mathrm d s=(R(t)-R(t_0))/\gamma$ from \eqref{eq:removed}, which measures the total number of cases over $[t_0,t]$.

\section*{Acknowledgments}
We are grateful to Prof. Alun Lloyd (North Carolina State University) for fruitful discussions.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaArXiv


Religion is supposed to be only a vehicle to the joy that has never known suffering, but often it causes so much suffering itself, fighting between religions on religious principles. It is everywhere the case, in east and west. That's misuse of religion, not only for creating war but also torture. It is also bullying. That's true in east and west. I am sorry to say, but it's true.
Now is the time for us to have something pure, totally pure, in the principle of love and compassion, with the commitment of helping and serving. If it is true it will be slightly disorganized. The moment you try to organize and make it function properly, which we call "professional", then all these other things come as part of it, in the name of religion, of helping, of service. Maybe we have to go back to the hippie - age. But they had their own problems too, sometimes even worse. So somehow we have to balance this. That's very important. Really true.
It is the same thing in our everyday life. We call it an organized path or goal, organized in the way that will serve and help so many people, but also very similar to your own personal life, it is the same thing. It is a matter of one being bigger and one smaller. One has more people involved, the other fewer. But then it is yourself, your own life. Many of you lead very good lives. Looking at you and how you function, you say: hey it hurts people and you just can't do that. Most of you, particularly in the west, people do that. Whether it is due to education, general knowledge or due to society or your individual person, it is very admirable that people do that. It is very important to keep that as principle. But having said that you can never do anything perfect. It is true. Everybody wants to do the right thing. But you can't be too righteous. It won't work.
It has to be less harmful for so many people and yourself too. You and your own family is your own personal responsibility right under your own nose. That's the first priority. If you don't do it, who else is going to do it? Nobody. That's just everyday life. I am not talking about anything mystical or mysterious. So I am responsible to me and my family. As a spiritual person you are supposed to be responsible to all living beings. That's what Buddha said. True, but the direct responsibility is my own life and the people who are connected with me. That's my priority.


Once you were struggling in the slavery of sins. The yoke of satan was terribly placed on your soul. When you looked up to God, He promises saying "I will break his yoke from your neck and will burst your bonds; foreigners shall no more enslave them" (Jeremiah 30:8).
Now, satan is leading the youth in a miserable manner placing the yokes like drugs, cannabis and alcohol on them. When you come nearer to Christ, you will have to accept His yoke on yourself. God says, "For my yoke is easy and my burden is light" (Mathew 11:30). When you accept that yoke your soul will get the rest.
You and Christ have been combined in the yoke on either side. The Scripture says, "He who says he abides in Him ought himself also to walk just as He walked" (I John 2:6).
Dear children of God, when you are combined with Him in a yoke, He will never admit any burden to be placed on you, How blessed it is for you to run the life combining with Him and to do the ministry, combined together with Him!
To meditate: "...they shall know that I am the Lord, when I have broken the bands of their yoke and delivered them from the hand of those who enslaved them" (Ezekiel 34:27).


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Photo by Emma Loewe | The Chronicle
Hoof 'n' Horn adapts Cabaret
Schaefer Theater bustles as directors and managers make their final changes to both the stage and sound only five minutes before the show. "Can you turn the saxophone up?" calls the music director to the soundboard above. She continues to make small tweaks before disappearing behind a black curtain. The stage is split—one side of the theater is made to look like an old hotel room, decorated with a tired mattress and desk accompanying faded green and white walls. On the opposite stage is an elevated platform, the setting entirely black barring a sign that hangs from the catwalk, which flashes CAB-A-RET.
Hoof 'n' Horn, Duke's student-run musical theater group, debuts its production of Cabaret this Thursday. Set in pre-Nazi Berlin in 1931, the musical follows the nightlife at the seedy Kit Kat Klub and the relationship between Sally Bowles, a singer at the club, and American writer Cliff Bradshaw, their fledging romance chronicled alongside the sudden Nazi rise to power.
The show's depth and complexity bring Hoof 'n' Horn to largely unexplored emotional ground, noted Producer Drew Klingner. "Cabaret has more weight to it than many Hoof 'n' Horn shows tend to have," Klingner wrote in an email. "As an organization, we're always looking to better ourselves as artists and collaborators." The play was also more physically demanding, with intricately choreographed numbers in almost every scene. While the theater group did not have the means in the past to put on such a production, "we finally have the resources at Hoof 'n' Horn to pull off a show that demands rigorous dance," said the producer.
Throughout the play, the Emcee at the Kit Kat Klub captures the changing feel of German society in his cabaret, infusing a more grave tone to the frivolous nature of the traditional nightclub entertainment.
"When you think of cabaret, you think 'dark' as in 'nightlife' but you don't think historically dark or controversial," said Kyle Aldedice, who plays the Emcee. "But being in it, you can't help but feel for what actually went on and the people that were hurt and oppressed."
Though the original play debuted on Broadway in 1966, Hoof 'n' Horn produced the now more popular 1987 version of the show. This revised musical is slightly more scandalous than the original, including controversial lines that were previously omitted for older audiences. The major plot change is Cliff's sexuality, said Klingner. Though Cliff is straight in the original 1966 version, he is portrayed as bisexual in the revised version, an addition that brings more complexity and emotional vulnerability to the play.
As the Nazi occupation in Berlin rises, Cliff also struggles to distance himself from a former male lover as he pursues a relationship with Sally. Through Cliff's implied sexuality, the play touches on the discrimination against homosexuals as well as Jews during Nazi rule, a detail that proves even more relevant in today's political landscape. Though not as severe, this intolerance still holds true in present day, noted Klingner.
Hoof 'n' Horn takes many artistic risks to bring to light the darkness of the period as well as a shared public ignorance during the Nazis' rise. The increasing presence of the swastika as the play unfolds evokes the fear and uncertainty of many German citizens at the time. While the history of the Nazi movement and Holocaust is generally common knowledge throughout the world, the imagery of the musical as well as the strong interplay between actors manipulates audience emotions in new and profound ways.
"I would want an audience to come with some background of what happened in the 1930s and 1940s in Germany," Aldedice said. "But when they leave, I want them to be able to, like I do, feel for the characters and the people."
Hoof 'n' Horn hopes that beyond generating a powerful response from the audience, the subject matter will also provoke conversations that previously were considered too controversial or taboo for open discussion. Klingner added that audience members should come with an open mind, and "dig deep" for the powerful message of the show.
"Because there are a lot of historical sensitivities involved with it, people may be hesitant to discuss the problems that they see in the show or the problems that they see in our society that are still related to the show," Klingner said. "It's important to make changes to the future based on what we screwed up in history."
Cabaret opens on Jan. 24 and continues through Feb. 3 in Schaefer Theater. See www.hoofnhorn.org for tickets.
Prof. Bev McIver on painting, family and fragility
There's a clandestine beauty hidden behind the faces of people in our lives. Each individual's thoughts, worries, aspirations, state of being radiate ...
For my life to be interrupted in that way by having to take care of another human being, it's challenging and difficult. But it's rewarding. I wouldn't ...
Nasher renovations to invite more student engagement
The Nasher Museum of Art holds more than 11,000 pieces in its permanent collection, but few of these works are ever seen by students during their years ...


By controlling how nanoparticles self-assemble at three different length scales, scientists have produced a tough and strong polymer nanocomposite.
Researchers have found a way to make deformable, heat-resistant sponge-like materials from nanoscale ceramic fibers.
High pressure could be the key to making high-entropy alloys made of common metals with a so-called hexagonal close-packed structure.
Adding different gases to a novel way for making graphene can make the material superhydrophobic or superhydrophilic.


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Home Advertising
Miller High Life Kicks Back to Go Forward
Joshua Hughes
It is ushering in the holidays via three vintage television spots to resurrect the popularity of its famed 'High Life Man' ad push
Alcohol heavyweight, Miller High Life, has chosen to usher in the holidays by celebrating the brand's heritage through the roll-out of a series of three vintage television spots to once more draw attention to its highly popular 'High Life Man' advertising push.
Respectively titled Alternative Fuels (2003), Waiting, and Pondering (1999), each of the ads originally aired as part of older installations of the same campaign. Aimed at capturing the marque's essence, the exercise will drive the humour and authenticity of High Life to showcase the product as a no-frills beer.
"Miller High Life has a rich history filled with decades of classic advertisements that tell the brand story. We brought them back from the archives to give fans a look into our past and celebrate the values that have stayed true to High Life for over 112 years," said Kedric George, Director of Heritage and Economy Brands at MillerCoors.
In addition to returning the spots to the big screen, it recently unveiled a line of limited-edition heritage packaging and menswear collection in partnership with Stock Mfg. Co—both of which are inspired by Miller High Life's landmark marketing initiatives executed throughout the history of the company so far.
Scheduled to air across the United States beginning this month, the commercials have been mapped out to specifically target the markets on Cincinnati, Minneapolis, Madison, Des Moines, Columbus, Louisville, Lexington, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, and Milwaukee. The spots were developed by creative agency, Wieden & Kennedy.
Wieden + Kennedy


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New Report: As Senate confirms Kraninger to head CFPB, state and local authorities can fill the void to protect consumers
Below is a press release for our report showing how states can fill the void in consumer protections at the CFPB, following Kathy Kraninger's confirmation as director this afternoon.
New car seats made without toxic flame-retardant chemicals
Car seats are supposed to keep our youngest children safe. But though they may protect infants and toddlers during accidents, car seats have a history of containing toxic flame-retardant chemicals.
That's finally changing.
Today, a coalition of groups including U.S. PIRG Education Fund and the Ecology Center's "Healthy Stuff" program released test results on car seats in a new report, Hidden Hazards:Flame Retardants and PFAS in Children's Car Seats. The authors collaborated with researchers from Indiana University and the University of Notre Dame.
The Marriott breach: why it's bad and what you can do to protect yourself
Today, Marriott announced a data breach affecting up to 500 million customers of Marriott's Starwood hotel properties. Mike Litt, consumer campaign director for the U.S. PIRG Education Fund, issued the following statement and steps consumers can take to protect themselves.
Poultry giant Sanderson Farms to end preventative use of medically-important antibiotics
Today, Sanderson Farms, Inc., the third-largest chicken producer in the United States, announced that it will stop using medically-important antibiotics to prevent disease in its chickens by March 1, 2019. Instead, as recommended by medical professionals, Sanderson Farms will only use the drugs to treat sick animals or to control a disease outbreak.
Popular toys contain toxics and other hazards
This holiday season, watch out for dangerous and toxic toys. U.S. PIRG's 33rd annual Trouble in Toyland report found toxic amounts of boron, which can cause nausea, vomiting and other health issues, in slime products as well as fining that Amazon failed to appropriately label choking hazards.
Tomorrow's National Free Credit Freeze Law
Our press release about the national free credit freeze law that goes into effect tomorrow. It includes tips about credit freezes and other steps consumers can take to protect themselves from different types of identity theft and fraud.
Report | U.S. PIRG and Citizens for Tax Justice | Tax
Offshore Shell Games 2015
U.S.-based multinational corporations are allowed to play by a different set of rules than small and domestic businesses or individuals when it comes to the tax code. Rather than paying their full share, many multinational corporations use accounting tricks to pretend for tax purposes that a substantial portion of their profits are generated in offshore tax havens, countries with minimal or no taxes where a company's presence may be as little as a mailbox. Multinational corporations' use of tax havens allows them to avoid an estimated $90 billion in federal income taxes each year.
Boosting the Impact of Small Donors
What if our campaign finance system encouraged candidates to raise money from everyday citizens making small contributions? This report examines how the 2016 fundraising picture would look if a small donor campaign finance system were in place, where small contributions were matched with limited public funds for candidates who agree to turn down large contributions.
Mortgages and Mortgage Complaints
Our sixth report analyzing complaints in the CFPB's Public Consumer Complaint Database evaluates mortgage complaints, the number one source of complaints to the CFPB, totaling 38% of nearly 500,000 complaints posted since 2011.
Report | US PIRG Education Fund | Transportation
Who Pays For Roads
Many Americans believe that drivers pay the full cost of the roads they use through gas taxes and other user fees. That has never been true, and it is less true now than at any other point in modern times. Today, general taxes paid by all tax- payers cover nearly as much of the cost of building and maintaining highways as the gas tax and other fees paid by drivers.
Targeting Hispanics for Leads in the Digital Big Data Era
This report examines digital targeting and marketing to Hispanics, especially younger Hispanics, due to their growing economic clout and early adoption of mobile smart phones, which enables precision targeting based on behavior, geo-location and language.
Antibiotics: Yummy Yucky | Steve Blackledge
Two of the three Yum! Brand companies announced new antibiotics policies this week. One was a promising step to save antibiotics. The other was more "yucky."
Lowering your APR might be easier than you think | Kathryn Lee
Many Americans are walking around with a balance on their credit card because of high interest rates, or annual percentage rate (APR) charges for unpaid balances. It's best to pay off your balance in full but if you don't or can't, a higher APR makes your debit grow faster. What most people don't realize is this APR can be negotiated to a lower rate.
Flint Pediatrician Gave a Voice to the Voiceless in Flint, Michigan | Anna Low-Beer
Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha is the Flint pediatrician who led the charge in proving that Flint water was tainted by lead and was poisoning the community. Without her drive and dedication to the children of Flint, it is hard to say how long government officials might have left the public in the dark about the mounting crisis. In honor of Women's History Month we're recognizing Dr. Hanna-Attisha -- a doctor, mother, and activist -- who has relentlessly fought for the public interest.
Blog Post | Transportation
The future of driving
Our friends at Mobility Lab take a look at a big, untapped opportunity for revolutionizing transportation with a new video.
Owning Fewer Cars Isn't Just For Millennials | Sean Doyle
New transportation options are making it easier for people to use transit more, own fewer cars, and even save money on transportation.


Cape Fear Staffing opened in Fayetteville, NC in April 2002. Since that time we have been providing the highest quality staffing services to a wide range of industries and clients in southeastern North Carolina. We are locally owned and operated and take enormous pride in putting people to work. Our personnel professionals combined, have over 40 years experience matching employers with employees.
We are intentional and dedicated to providing employees that fit the scope of what our clients are seeking. We verify the past year of employment and e-verify all of our employees, in addition to background checks.
Today's staffing demands are increasingly challenging. That's why more and more companies are partnering with Cape Fear Staffing; an agency with a proven strategy of helping job seekers and companies meet their employment needs.