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May 19, 2021 8 min read Newsletter
A Short Roundup 2: Electric Boogaloo
The newsletter will be off till June 1, after which it'll resume headed into summer
Top of the Pops
First off, today will be the last newsletter until June as I'm taking the next two weeks to spend time with my fiancée and our respective families as we're getting married on the 27th. 'Service' will resume as usual on Tuesday June 1. As usual, if you've got any leads for research projects in motion germane to anything covered here and think I'd be a good fit, please do let me know. I've always depended on the kindness of strangers. Today's roundup is missing a long column as I've got an appointment in the early afternoon, after which I'm off to handle more family logistics, my apologies.
For those that didn't look through the IEA report linked yesterday, I though I'd pull the following to illustrate the problem for Russia assuming a net zero scenario emerges. I remain highly skeptical that we will see the cessation of investment into oil & gas fields because of their political value, let alone the room for privately-held explorers and operators unconcerned about investor sentiment who can fill the gaps where national companies don't. Accelerations in competing fuel sources, though, will just accelerate the relative destruction of equity value and intensify political conflicts domestically when they eat away at demand at the levels the IEA scenario calls for. See the geography of output amid persistent decline:
North America — the combined oil & gas sectors of the US, Canada, and Mexico — far overpower what Russia can do to the market during decline. Saudi Arabia benefits because of its low costs, relationships with foreign firms, and excess capacity. Russia doesn't at all, and even if US shale takes a permanent hit from COVID, it's still a massive source of supply. Natural gas is a slightly different story but the same overall problem. One has to factor in that the US in particular has far more fiscal capacity to ramp up green energy, battery deployments, and expand its research efforts than Russia, which then allows it to export more of its production rather than consume it domestically (though the politics at the state level are fraught). Putinism was initially built on the promise of perpetually increasing hydrocarbon demand, a dynamic that has allowed its oil & gas sector to keep holding the economy together despite stagnation as it and other resource extraction industries absorb a higher relative share of national investment despite attempts to diversify. Those tradeoffs fall apart once external demand for Russia's main exports begins to fall. It's not a novel insight or a new one for this newsletter, but something that has to be constantly reiterated and complicated since the US isn't pricing carbon domestically for now. The IEA's stance on net zero will entail a massive increase in resource extraction, yes, but not one that can sustain the same political arrangements in Russia.
Russia's sovereign holdings of US Treasuries has reached an historic low. The Central Bank's data shows Russia holds a measly $3.976 billion in T-bills, most of which have short-term maturities. For context, Russia held $170 billion of them from 2010-2013 and they remain far and away the safest financial asset in the world. The sanctions regime starting in 2014 never stopped them from holding them, so this has been a choice on their part to diversify away. But Europe, despite providing safe financial assets, still struggles with long-run stability because of the constant political tensions within the Eurozone over fiscal policy, fiscal integration, financial market integration, and the serious defects of the currency union exacerbated by Germany's 'debt brake' politics. It's ironic that the prudence Russia's so obsessed with domestically makes it politically far more difficult to make EU debts as reliable as US Treasuries (though they're still very, very safe for the most part). Vedomosti sources justify the sell down now on the basis of inflationary fears, basically implying that US stimulus makes them a less attractive draw while sidestepping the problem that the effects of inflation on sovereign debts are differential — inflation levels in Russia, for instance, are far higher than in the US where the economy is surging more strongly in terms of its capacity utilization and supply chain bottlenecks. This is strictly true, but sidesteps the reality of MinFin, the Central Bank, and the Kremlin's approach to de-dollarization and macromanagement — they've just taken on higher levels of risk, frequently realized losses due to exchange rate fluctuations with non-dollar currencies, and hurt themselves. There's never been any evidence Washington has ever seriously considered banning them from holding US Treasuries for the obvious reason that doing so would be an insane political risk for markets and the role of US Treasuries as a premier safe asset, even if congressional hawks say stupid things as they're wont to do. Moscow is betting on the successful emergence of a unified EU bloc to provide an adequate long-term substitute to US sovereign debt — China has a long way to go on this front as it struggles with the liberalization of its capital account — at the same time it loves to sow discord in Europe. Yet again, there is no coherent strategy here. You can't have it all geopolitically and economically.
As eyes turn to China as markets still struggle to absorb the new pro-full employment logic of the US Federal Reserve and its willingness to run things hot, evidence now suggests that China's low base effect growth against last year is now over. Economic activity is registering at pre-pandemic levels according to the Capital Economics data cited by Kommersant. The following is % growth year-on-year by quarter:
Blue = industrial production Orange = capital investment Grey = retail
Retail is clearly out front still even with the growth slowdown returning things to 'normal' but price inflation in China accelerated in April to 6.8% vs. 4.4% in March in annualized terms. The supply chain bottlenecks that are hurting consumers everywhere, and slamming Russia, are hurting China as well given that manufacturers have to deal with growing delivery delays and respond to competition from importers for volumes of output that might be consumed domestically as well. China's trade surplus surged to $43.3 billion in April as well after settling at a much lower $13.8 billion in March when the low base effects were peaking. China can keep 'carrying' commodities markets and its fair share of growth, but these factors underscore the extent to which it's now the US and US policy factors driving the global recovery most of all, at least till Europe realizes debt isn't an existential risk, and the extent to which Russia's long-run gamble on Chinese and Asian commodity demand now faces a potentially very different distribution of global growth in the years ahead the longer China and Asia's largest exporters struggle to increase domestic consumption levels along with their European counterparts.
Turns out that ruble exchange rate isn't benefiting from a weaker dollar thanks to importers who're adapting to the "reopening surge" in demand — imports for Jan.-April were up 50% and reached $78.3 billion. Despite the fact that the USD has weakened from the flood of liquidity pushed out into the global financial system and Brent crude has settled close to $70 a barrel, the ruble actually weakened because importers rushed to grab dollars to cover invoices. When the exchange rate dips below 74 rubles to 1 USD, market participants rush in for more USD. It's an interesting dynamic to follow and suggests that the ruble may have a harder time recovering lost ground from last year during its strongest 'recovery' phase, which would then lock in higher import costs during said recovery and erode some firm and consumer spending power. Geopolitical risks persist, yes, but the decoupling of the ruble from oil prices has left Russia in this position as well. Banks are also bringing inflows of Euros and USD at the highest levels seen in the last year for the most recent available data — €816 million and $697.1 million in March, with other currencies accounting for roughly an additional $200 million in value. My sense is that banks are bringing in currency where they can to meet demand from households panicking about inflation and importers trying to pay down invoices for goods that face global supply bottlenecks. Hard to see the ruble regaining ground even if oil prices climb much higher since those additional revenues and earnings floating through the economy will end up financing more import activity and hoarding behavior.
Retail chain Lenta is now acquiring European competitor Billa's 161 supermarket locations in Russia per a deal settled in Euros — €215 million all told. On its own, it's not a huge announcement (though the valuation seems quite high to me) but it comes just after a blockbuster acquisition I wasn't able to cover yesterday. Russia's second largest retailer, Magnit, acquired its third largest retailer by turnover — Dixie — at 93 billion rubles. That's €1.03 billion for comparison despite Dixie owning a whopping 2,600 locations. The kicker? Magnit is majority owned by VTB, a state bank. The deal sets it up to compete with the market leaders at the X5 Retail Group but also hands the state a more direct means of pushing the country's biggest retailers to the table for price control negotiations. Lenta's just doing what it can to stay in the game. The poorer Russian consumers become, the more pressure for retailers working in industries with thin margins to consolidate to try and cut costs. The more they consolidate, the easier the administrative side of Moscow's challenge to rein them in becomes since it centralizes business decision-making power — corporations are, after all, bureaucracies. The retail market is still very competitive and no firm yet has a market position so large as to achieve a particularly hard edge on pricing power at the national level, and most local the regional level as well though I'd have to dig more into what the data looks like. E-commerce is the other side of this since first-movers on that side can consolidate market positions and move into break & mortar food retail over time a la Amazon, for instance. Here's one forecast excluding car sales for the size of the e-commerce market in the years ahead:
Blue = market size, trlns rubles Green = E-commerce % share of retail Red = growth of E-commerce market
Competition is alive and well in the retail space, and the state's not trying to kill that (yet). However, the expanded use of pressure and agreements with private retailers is going to start shifting business incentives for acquisitions and investment strategies in ways we'll only start seeing next year or even the year after.
COVID Status Report
New cases fell to 7,920 and reported deaths came in at 390. All the decline was registered in Moscow, it looks like. Despite the statistical noise, there does seem to be some evidence that a more broadly observed increase in the number of critical cases of COVID have risen — the link concerns Ulan-Ude. My own bias is that if it's happening there, it's probably happening across the regions based on the hospitalization trends from Moscow and Piter. Hospitals are scrambling to bring back bed capacity exclusively for COVID patients. Authorities in Crimea are reporting an increase in cases of COVID and pneumonia and they've seen no fall in critical cases. Week-on-week hospitalizations in Piter are up 27% with the total case load up a much more modest 3.5%. Smol'ny's now calling it a 3rd wave officially. But different regions and cities have different reactions. Until we have more data on excess mortality for April that goes beyond the assurances from Golikova that things had settled down to 2019 norms, it's hard to suss out any gap in the data. One thing's clear — there's still no 'national' public health effort aside from the shift at MinZdrav and from the Kremlin as well trying to nudge Russians to get vaccinated as fast as possible.
Like what you read? Pass it around to your friends! If anyone you know is a student or professor and is interested, hit me up at @ntrickett16 on Twitter or email me at nbtrickett@gmail.com and I'll forward a link for an academic discount (edu accounts only!).
I wanted to reflect before making the jump. I'm looking forward to it
Post-pandemic growth isn't just a Russia problem. It's global.
All over but the shouting
The US-German deal on Nord Stream is completely fine and a decent get for Kyiv
Winning Losses
Stumbles around a US withdrawal from Iraq point to strategy wins and losses
OPEC on the cheek
The new output deal stabilizes the market. The next part's where the fun starts
OGs and OFZs © 2023
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Estradiol benzoate/estradiol dienanthate/testosterone enanthate benzilic acid hydrazone (EB/EDE/TEBH), sold under the brand names Climacteron, Lactimex, Lactostat, and Amenose, is an injectable combination medication of estradiol benzoate (EB), an estrogen, estradiol dienanthate (EDE), an estrogen, and testosterone enanthate benzilic acid hydrazone (TEBH), an androgen/anabolic steroid, which is used in menopausal hormone therapy for peri- and postmenopausal women and to suppress lactation in postpartum women. Clinical studies have assessed this formulation.

Climacteron and Amenose contained 1.0 mg EB, 7.5 mg EDE, and 150 mg TEBH (69 mg free testosterone) and was used to treat menopausal symptoms. They were administered by intramuscular injection typically once every 6 weeks but with a range of every 4 to 8 weeks or less frequently. Climacteron was marketed in Canada in 1961 but was withdrawn in this country in October 2005 due to risk of endometrial hyperplasia and cancer from unopposed estrogen exposure (i.e., no concomitant progestogen) as well as induction of supraphysiological testosterone levels.

Lactimex and Lactostat contained 6 mg EB, 15 mg EDE, and 300 mg TEBH in 2 mL of corn oil and were used to suppress lactation. They were administered as a single intramuscular injection after childbirth or during breastfeeding. They were previously available in Germany and Canada.

Estradiol and testosterone levels following a single intramuscular injection of EB/EDE/TEBH versus 10 mg estradiol valerate have been studied over 28 days.

See also
 List of combined sex-hormonal preparations

References

Abandoned drugs
Combined estrogen–androgen formulations

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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View More Press Releases by ASPPA [American Society of Pension Professionals & Actuaries]
ASPPA Honors John Griffin with 2021 Educator's Award
Issued by ASPPA [American Society of Pension Professionals & Actuaries]
The American Society of Pension Professionals & Actuaries presented ERISA attorney and long-time ASPPA member John Griffin the 2021 Educator's Award during the Oct. 17 opening session of the 2021 ASPPA Annual Conference in National Harbor, MD.
Griffin has spoken at ASPPA events for nearly 40 years, teaching thousands of retirement plan professionals. He has become known for his patient, easy-to-understand and thorough style of teaching. He has been a frequent speaker and educator, providing webcasts, live seminars, newsletters and on-site teaching. In addition, Griffin has been very involved with ASPPA, serving on the Government Affairs Committee—most often representing plan document issues.
The Educator's Award was established in 1997 to recognize and honor outstanding educators. It is awarded to an ASPPA member who has made a significant contribution to retirement plan education.
Editor's note: This press release has been issued by the company named above, not BenefitsLink. Reliance on information in this press release might be prudent only after an independent review of its accuracy, completeness, efficacy, and timeliness. Reference to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, service mark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by BenefitsLink.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


On this page convert BMD to COP using live currency rates as of 18/04/2019 19:52. Includes a live currency converter, handy conversion table, last 7 days exchange rate history and some live Bermuda Dollar to Colombian Peso charts. Invert these currencies?
Looking to make a Bermuda Dollar Colombian Peso international money transfer? Currency UK recommend TorFX as our preferred currency provider.


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Kankakee Valley Cross Country Star Allison Rockley Signs with IU Northwest RedHawk Athletics
By: Indiana University Northwest Last Updated: May 20, 2014
Allison Rockley has blazed trails as a cross country star at Kankakee Valley. Now, she's a trailblazer of a different sort. The Kougars' senior is the first signee of Indiana University Northwest's new NAIA-sanctioned cross-country program.
"This is awesome. I'm glad I get to continue my career to the next level because it's part of my life," Rockley said. "I can just keep doing what I love to do."
Rockley, planning to study radiology, is the first recruit to commit to the school for either the women's or men's teams. The teams are slated to begin competition this fall.
"We want to build a program with athletes just like Allison," RedHawks coach Javier Heridia said. "We are thrilled to have a quality runner to begin this journey as we build the program at IUN."
"(Heridia) is getting the best KV has to offer," Kougars cross-country and track coach Lane Lewallen said. "She is everything right in high school athletics. "She's a tremendous leader, team first all the time, and an outstanding young lady."
Her resume is chock full of individual and team achievements. Rockley is a four-time All Northwest Crossroads Conference First Team member, a semi-state individual qualifier in 2013 and the team's captain and most valuable runner. Her teams have won two NCC team championships, three sectional titles, and two semi-state qualifiers. On the track team, she is also captain as well as an All-NCC selection on the 3,200-meter relay team and the top long distance runner in the 1,600 and 3,200 runs.
Rockley's running performances drew Heridia's scouting interest, but her character drove him to make her an offer.
"Athletically, I liked her times in general; her track times in the 2-mile and the mile, her cross-country, all her accolades," Heridia said. "But then her qualities in the classroom, she's a great student athlete. That's our goal at IUN, to have a great product on the field but also have someone in the classroom who gets it done."
The RedHawks look to build not only with high school recruits, but also with past high school runners already on their campus. Heridia says there is already "great interest" in his upstart programs.
"We have a few regional qualifiers, a couple of state qualifiers that ran for local programs, so we have a good foundation," Heridia said. "As far as the high school recruits, a runner like Allison is only going to help."
-WIUN Radio/RedHawk Sports Network Mr. Gregg Schwartz
Posted: 13 hours ago on Twitter
.@iunorthwest was proud to reveal their new Academic Media Production Space earlier this week, and we are proud to share about it! Read here for details and photos on the technology that will benefit so many students moving forward: https://t.co/eEC09d9eMs https://t.co/ed78vZgZnA


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For Example: In the lunch break you will have the possibility to be seen how the solar system works on the roof or you can help your father in law via screen sharing like VNC or you can monitor your home with a network camera. The possibilities are many and varied.
DynDNS is free with an account at myonlineportal. It's easy to register and get your domain. After this make the settings on the router.
Proxyserver (surf anonymously) If you want to web surf anonymously you need a proxy server. You can adjust it in the web browser. Every time you surf the Internet, your web browser submits information to the operator of the page you are viewing. (www.meineipanzeigen.de) A few of them can be disguised by making use of a proxy.
The Proxy server is a computer which receives requests from you and forwards them to other websites. He can increase security through the use of access control mechanisms. If the proxy works transparently, it will disguise your identity.
Another advantage is that you can use the proxy for live streams that are not allowed in your country. For instance, it is possible that you can watch blocked youtube videos. In such cases, you can then use a proxy which in the country is. Now you can also see this content. For more information on the use and properties of proxy servers can be found on wikipedia.
DNS Tunnel mit iodine/Kostenlose Wlan-Hotspots Wer hat nicht schon mal z.B. im Hotel mit seinem Laptop oder Handy einen WLAN-HotSpot gefunden, bei dem man sich anmelden melden oder gar bezahlen muss. In Deutschland betreibt die Deutsche Telekom die meisten kostenpflichtigen Wlan Hot-Spots. Wäre es nicht toll diese Hotspots nutzen zu können, um z.B. Emails abzurufen oder sich mit seinem Messenger Verbinden zu können ?
Mit Iodine gibt es ein Tool, welches genau dies ermöglichen kann.


The Shroud Maker – Friday, 15th February @ 7.30 – Volcano Theatre, Swansea. Pre-book tickets online at http://www.volcanotheatre.co.uk or purchase on the night. Play followed by Q&A with the writer and actor.
What's the best business one can establish in Gaza? Haj Souad, an 84 year old woman living in El Shujaia Neighbourhood, had the right idea. She has survived decades of wars, deportation and oppression through making and selling shrouds for the dead, profiting from the continuous Israeli attacks.
A compelling black comedy, The Shroud Maker delves deep into the intimate life of ordinary Palestinians to weave a highly distinctive path through Palestine's turbulent past and present. Loosely based on a real life character still living in Gaza, this one-woman comedy weaves comic fantasy and satire with true stories told first hand to the writer, and offers a vivid portrait of Palestinian life in Gaza underscored with gallows humour.
Ahmed Masoud is a writer, director and academic. Born and grew up in Gaza, now based in the UK and author of Vanished: The Mysterious Disappearance of Mustafa Ouda. His plays include Camouflage (London, May 2017), Walaa/Loyalty (London, June & November 2014), Unto the Breach (London, November 2012 & Vienna, November 2013) and Go to Gaza, Drink the Sea (London, 2009 & Edinburgh Fringe, August 2009). His radio piece Escape from Gaza was broadcast on BBC Radio 4 in 2011.
Why has West Wales Friends of Palestine brought the Shroud Maker to West Wales?
This year we invited three personal friends from our twinned village of Rummaneh to visit us, in return for their hospitality to us. All their visas were refused, though they have homes, families and work in Rummanah and no desire to leave. So, we are bringing a play from Palestine to Wales until we can bring our friends to meet you.


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'Big Brother 18' Spoilers: Who Won August 4 HOH In 'BB18' House?
Ryan DeVault
Big Brother 18 spoilers from late Thursday, August 4, will include the latest BB18 HOH winner. Who won the August 4 HOH was determined by a familiar competition to viewers of the show. As seen when the Thursday night episode came to a close, the houseguests each had to stand on a small platform as they hung on to a rope that swung them around the backyard. The last person left standing would be named the Head of Household for the week.
When the CBS live feeds turned back on, James Huling and Bridgette Dunning had already fallen off. That left just seven people competing to become the new HOH (Paul Abrahamian couldn't participate as the outgoing HOH). Corey Brooks was the next person to fall, lasting only a few minutes longer than James and Bridgette. Michelle Meyer started vomiting soon after that, with the spinning getting to her. She stayed in the challenge a few more minutes after getting sick, but Michelle would eventually fall off the disc.
Natalie, Zakiyah, Nicole, Paulie and Victor remain in the competition #BB18 pic.twitter.com/rRq58WpFG9
— Big Brother Updates (@BB_Updates) August 5, 2016
Who wins the August 4 HOH came down to just five people at this point. About half an hour into the competition, the remaining participants were Zakiyah Everette, Paulie Calafiore, Nicole Franzel, Natalie Negrotti, and Victor Arroyo. For readers who want to catch up on what took place during the Thursday night eviction episode, a report by the Inquisitr is available for consumption. Da'Vonne Rogers was the latest person to get evicted from the BB18 house, making her the first member of the summer 2016 jury.
#bb18 pic.twitter.com/RfWPRwkibs
— hamsterwatch #BB18 (@hamsterwatch) August 5, 2016
Back to the Big Brother 18 spoilers from Thursday night, Nicole Franzel fell out of the HOH competition about an hour (10:44 p.m. ET) into its progression. That left just four people competing for the power this week (Paulie, Zakiyah, Natalie, and Victor). Victor was trying to work out deals for about the first hour of the HOH competition, but he couldn't really get anyone in the BB18 house to bite on his offers. Da'Vonne warned him when she was evicted that he could be next, so it would be in his best interest to win this challenge.
The first three houseguests to drop out of the August 4 HOH competition are going to be "Have Nots" for the week. Those three houseguests are James Huling, Bridgette Dunning, and Corey Brooks. There had been previous Big Brother 18 spoilers on the live feeds that James planned on throwing this competition, but viewers won't know for sure what he decided to do until the Sunday, August 7, episode of the show. It's a risky move to pass up the power and also accept the punishments of being a Have Not again.
Natalie, Paulie, Victor, Zakiyah still "hanging" #bb18 pic.twitter.com/mURtIFwboW
The next two people to drop out of the HOH competition were Zakiyah Everette and Paulie Calafiore (in that order), leaving just Victor Arroyo and Natalie Negrotti competing for the title. Natalie has been stating that she only wanted to win the HOH in order to get a letter from her mom, apologizing to her if she ends up falling and losing the chance to read it. At just about 11 p.m. ET, it looked like Victor and Natalie could both be up on those discs for quite a bit of time.
coming up to an hour and a half #bb18 pic.twitter.com/XqEDOaD2bs
At just about 11:25 p.m. ET, it looked like Victor could outlast Natalie, as she was spinning a lot and experiencing a lot of pain on her disc. Both houseguests have been congratulating each other for making it this far in the HOH competition. The deal discussions also came to an end, with Natalie refusing to give up and Victor refusing to drop because he feared getting evicted from the BB18 house again next week.
When 11:35 p.m. ET hit, Natalie Negrotti was talking about feeling really sick due to the spinning, while Victor Arroyo looked ready to go all night. Despite that, the duo was still battling it out at 11:45 p.m. ET. Right about 11:49 p.m. ET (8:49 p.m. PT), Natalie, who secured safety first, dropped out of the competition. Who is the new Big Brother 18 HOH? It's Victor Arroyo.
[Photo by CBS Big Brother/Twitter]


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TL;DR/
Watch This/
Watch the evolution of stop-motion film in this 3-minute video
By Andrew Liptak / @AndrewLiptak
Source Vugar Efendi | Via Nerdist and io9
Sep 4, 2016, 5:57 PM UTC |
Stop-motion animation has been a mainstay in cinematic special effects for almost as long as movies have been around. Filmmaker Vugar Efendi recently posted a video that charts the history of the technique, and shows just how far it has come since it was first introduced over a century ago.
Starting with 1900's The Enchanted Drawing and running all the way up through 2016's Kubo and the Two Strings, short video is a fascinating look at how the technique has evolved over the years, and include some of cinema's best-known moments, from King Kong atop the Empire State Building to the AT-AT attack in The Empire Strikes Back.
Kubo and Two Strings is the recent film to utilize the animation style, which entails manipulating a puppet or prop frame by frame to give the illusion of movement when viewed in sequence. Originally used to create fantastical elements before the advent of computer imagery, it's now the basis for numerous films, such as The Little Prince and Nightmare Before Christmas.
More from TL;DR


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The Outlook for International Real Estate Investment
South Florida Legal Guide's Financial Roundtable
One of the foundations for South Florida's economy is the inbound flow of global commercial and real estate investments. But how will currency fluctuations, volatility in China and the Federal Reserve's postponement of a rate hike affect in the decisions of international investors? To address these issues, South Florida Legal Guide held a roundtable discussion on "The Outlook for International Real Estate Investment" with leading professionals on September 18. Gibraltar Private Bank & Trust hosted this special event for our Financial Edition. Editor Richard Westlund moderated the 90-minute discussion, which featured comments from six participants.
Pictured above:
David S. Appel, CPA, senior partner, Marcum LLP
Teresa King Kinney, CEO, Realtor Association of Greater Miami and the Beaches
Jonathan Hill, senior vice president and director of investments, Gibraltar Private Bank & Trust
James Shindell, partner and chair, Real Estate Group, Bilzin Sumberg
Harold L. Lewis, partner, Pathman Lewis, LLP
Ron Shuffield, president and CEO, EWM Realty
Richard Westlund, Editor, South Florida Legal Guide
Q. Let's start by giving your individual perspectives on the international real estate market. What trends are you seeing today?
Kinney: Our association has signed agreements with more than 125 foreign associations around the world. We interact with some more closely than others. I just returned from a conference in Brazil where I presented a seminar to 4,000 real estate professionals. Even though the Brazilian real has lost value to the dollar, their interest in Miami is stronger than ever. Many people were predicting that the market would drop off, but people want to get their money out of Brazil and there is more talk about moving here and setting up businesses.
Harold Lewis
Shuffield: Our company deals mostly in the high-end residential market, so we see many wealthy international buyers. Over the last three years, there has been a gradual downturn in this market. Today 27 percent of residential sales in Miami-Dade County – as reported on the multiple listing service (MLS) – are to international buyers. That's down from 31 percent last year and 35 percent two years ago. One reason is that many foreign currencies have declined against the dollar. For instance, for Canadians it is about 21 percent more expensive to buy here than it was in 2014. We sell a lot of Broward homes to Canadians, but at the moment they don't feel an urgency to buy. We're also not seeing as much Russian money these days. Buyers from Argentina and Brazil have also seen their currencies decline in value, but that hasn't been as much of a deterrent as for other countries.
Appel: We work with two segments of the international market. We advise foreign investors who are putting money into condominium development projects or acquiring income-producing properties. There is a considerable amount of commercial funds coming into the U.S., and many international investors are not familiar with our tax system, especially transfer taxes. We are still seeing investors from Russia, the Ukraine, France, Italy and the Asian nations, as well as Latin America. The other aspect of our international practice relates to families who want to immigrate to the United States. They are looking at opening businesses or investing in EB-5 projects. The largest portion of that market today is coming from China, but there are families from all over the world who want to move here. Miami is an area that attracts international investors because our values are very competitive with other locations as they look at strategies to move money out of their home countries.
Shindell: I work in a commercial law firm, so the evidence I have is anecdotal rather than statistics. But from what I've seen, we are still in a very good place. On the commercial side, there is a steady flow of work from international investors, who are coming from a wide variety of countries. In commercial real estate, equity has never been more available, and it's a good time to be active in development and the buying and selling of commercial properties. While I read about the possible slowing in velocity, that has not filtered down to our business.
Hill: We cater to domestic and international high-net-worth (HNW) individuals and families. On the international side, there are two trends going on. People from troubled countries such as Venezuela are feeling nervous and want to get their money out for security reasons. The other trend is the opportunistic buyer who is looking to purchase a home here at a good value, including many Europeans and Canadians. A lot of HNW people buying here already have their assets in dollars and currency movements don't have as large an impact on their decisions.
Lewis: As a small real estate firm with 15 lawyers, we focus on zoning and land use, working with banks, other lenders and developers. Since we have emerged from the recession – and all the litigation from that period – we have seen a great deal of activity on the development and zoning areas. But there is less appetite from banks for construction loans, especially for high-rise residential projects. While I am still a believer in Miami's growth as a world-class city, we are still subject to the laws of economic supply and demand. So, we are keeping a close eye on things during this phase of the development cycle. In general, we are seeing a lot of buyers from France in high-end developments, and significant volume from Spain as well.
Q. What are you seeing in regards to the Chinese buyers?
Lewis: We aren't seeing inbound investment from Asia, but that may change with direct flights to and from Miami International Airport (MIA). I believe that money from the Middle East and China will find its way here, but am uncertain as to whether it will grow to become a significant volume.
David Appel
Hill: The devaluation of the yuan was more of a symbolic shift than anything else, as China has been under great pressure to let its currency float more freely. The shock was that the devaluation occurred when it did, as analysts saw that as an indication that the nation's economy needed a shot in the arm.
Kinney: The Asian Real Estate Association of America (AREAA) has just launched its Greater Miami Chapter. That is a powerful sign of the interest in Miami real estate from the Asian market, particularly China.
Shuffield: We have had many meetings with wealthy Chinese groups. Recently, I went to dinner with nine prospective buyers from China, and each one was worth at least $100 million. They are interested in big projects, and especially in the EB-5 program. But so far our company's sales to Chinese buyers have largely been to wealthy younger families who want to get their children into U.S. schools.
James Shindell
Kinney: We are seeing that as well. A Chinese buyer might buy four or five units in a new condominium building – the kind of sale that doesn't make the newspapers. But in one case, a Chinese investor who didn't speak English looked at list of the units in a new condominium. He highlighted four residences and handed the list back to the sales representative. She was very happy thinking that she'd sold those four units. Then, the interpreter told her the buyer wanted all the available units in the building except for those four, which had unlucky numbers.
Q. What else can we do to strengthen those ties?
Kinney: Building stronger educational relationships is very important. We will be partnering with Florida International University (FIU), which has 4,000 students on two campuses in China offering hospitality and business programs. When those families come to Miami for student orientation, we will give a presentation on Miami real estate. Already, we're finding that Chinese buyers may want to purchase a home for their kids, and another for themselves. One parent of a University of Miami student recently bought four properties here. Next year, we will be giving a presentation to 100 top Chinese brokers at the National Association of Realtors convention in San Diego and invite them to spend a week with us in Miami.
Teresa King Kinney
Q. Will the Federal Reserve's recent decision not to raise rates have an impact on international real estate investment?
Hill: Interest rates have been low for a long time and will continue to be low. If you look back at the last 40-50 years, the average has been around 4 to 5 percent, while today the Fed rate is effectively zero. So a 25-basis-point rise in December won't derail the housing market here. Anyone with a higher-rate mortgage will probably already have refinanced.
Q. What advice would you give sophisticated international investors with regard to legal, tax and immigration issues?
Lewis: When a foreign buyer contacts our law firm, we emphasize the importance of getting tax and accounting advice. Even if they have made investments here before, they shouldn't assume that things are the same as the way it was ten years ago. Immigration issues aside, someone who brings a large amount of money into the U.S. needs that professional advice.
Appel: The U.S. has a complicated legal and tax system that is difficult for foreign investors to navigate. We advise our clients to get educated. When they make direct investments, they are likely going to be subject to a 40 percent estate tax. There are ways to structure an investment, such as creating a trust, to avoid that potential liability. Of course, if a foreign investor structures a transaction in the wrong way, it becomes even more complicated to unravel things.
Ron Shuffield
Shindell: We advise investors to choose their U.S. partners carefully. Spend time with them, and don't just pick someone from their own country who speaks the same language. Instead, they should look for a partner who is active in the South Florida marketplace and knows it well. A good U.S. partner should also do business in a way that matches the investor's temperament and culture. Just as we may make the mistake of viewing every Latin culture as the same, an international investor should remember that every U.S. real estate developer is different. Be sure your objectives, value and goals are aligned.
Q. What should be the role of real estate in an investment portfolio?
Shindell: It should be 100 percent commercial real estate!
Kinney: My Realtor members would totally agree with putting real estate front and center.
Hill: Many clients come to Gibraltar Bank because they want to diversify their portfolio around their real estate holdings. We don't discourage real estate investment – after all, Miami real estate has made many people very wealthy – but we try to manage for long-term legacy wealth. We believe in the importance of a diversified portfolio that may include alternative assets and strategies along with stocks, bonds and real estate. We want to smooth out the return stream, and reduce the risk of digging a hole on the low side. We have also increased our cash levels in many portfolios to the 5 to 10 percent range, which is large by historic standards.
Q. Are you seeing any demand for jumbo mortgages and other types of residential financing?
Richard Westlund
Shuffield: Yes. We have always had that demand, even though most international buyers pay cash because it's simple.
Kinney: They also want to get money out of their native countries. In fact, I was surprised by our survey finding that the highest percentage of all-cash buyers came from France.
Lewis: We are concerned about the buyers who have given a substantial down payment to a developer for a new condominium. If their currency has been devalued, they may need to finance the balance of the acquisition, even if that was not their original intent. That may need to be filled by the banks or private lenders. Otherwise, there may a shortfall that could affect the developer, as well as the international buyer.
Hill: Once they make a purchase in cash, they own an asset here. Then, they can take out a loan against that asset, rather than going through the difficult procedure of getting a mortgage loan in the first place.
Q. What about lending on the commercial side?
Shindell: There is more equity capital out there today than anyone can remember, and the terms are better, too. CMBS (commercial mortgage-back securities) financing is more available than in the past few years. However, the commercial banks are less involved in construction lending today, partly because it's harder for them to lay off some of that debt. They also know that once they get into a project, it's almost impossible to get out. But there is no shortage of cash available, and it's clear that many foreign investors want to put their money into Miami.
Q. Have currency devaluations affected that flow of commercial investment?
Shindell: We are not seeing that. Take Argentina, whose currency has lost two thirds of its value in the past decade. So far this year, we've seen investors from Argentina pay $125 million for 1.25 acres at the Epic East site in downtown Miami and $140 million for a 12-story office building at 777 Brickell, as well as sites on Miami Beach and the Miami River. That shows that even with devaluation, the money is still flowing into South Florida. For me, what's even more exciting is to see foreign investors from Asia, Latin America and Europe getting involved in our community. They are bringing fresh ideas from other cities around the world, rather than just parking their money here. Today, Miami is the epicenter of the flow of creativity.
Appel: For very wealthy families, currency devaluation is not an issue. Many have already moved money into dollar accounts to avoid the risk of loss of value or currency restriction. But devaluation is a concern for families who didn't move their money out and have lost their buying power.
Q. Along with finding a safe haven for flight capital or potential returns, what are some of the other motivations of international investors? For example, is the Miami lifestyle a factor?
Lewis: Absolutely. All it takes is one trip to South Beach to realize the appeal of a Miami lifestyle.
Shuffield: From sports teams to restaurants to shopping to cultural facilities, Miami is very attractive to travelers. Just look at the success of PAAM (Perez Art Museum Miami), which attracted far more visitors than expected in its first year.
Kinney: We have a tremendous advantage over many other states because of our lifestyle, weather, pricing and lack of a state income tax. That makes homes a true bargain for buyers from New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and California.
Shuffield: We sometimes don't realize how much that extra tax means to people. I met a buyer from California who will save $1.3 million a year in taxes after buying an $8 million home here. Now, he's enjoying that cash flow while dining at Joe's Stone Crab and taking advantage of everything we have to offer in terms of a lifestyle.
Q. What are the biggest challenges facing our real estate market?
Lewis: I think we need more organic growth in our residential market, where median prices are well above the median income affordability level. That may not be a problem for developers as long as international buyers continue to invest here, but it is a red flag for the long-term sustainability of our city.
Appel: Rising apartment rents are putting a lot of pressure on employee salaries. We are seeing more young professional move to Broward and Palm Beach because rents are cheaper to the north.
Shuffield: Inventories of $1 million-plus condominiums are growing, and the sales pace has declined. There are a lot of new units going into the rental pool, where they compete with new multifamily apartment projects. That means prices are likely to trend down in the condo market, There is a huge investor component in our market, but unlike the previous cycle, this time there is nowhere near as much leverage.
Kinney: Even though we've had record-breaking sales for the past four years, prices are still where they were in 2003-04. In Miami-Dade now, we have 5,000 properties listed for sale under $250,000, so we are still one of the most affordable metropolitan areas in the U.S. The problem is that those homes are generally located a long way from our major employment centers.
Q. What do you see happening in 2016?
Lewis: Flight capital will continue to come into the United States, and Miami is the logical beneficiary from wealthy families in Latin America. This is an incredibly safe place to live and put your money to work. But is there enough of that flight capital to sustain the current level of development? That is a big question for the coming year, especially with so many currency devaluations.
Shuffield: To me, the big story has been the return of the American buyer. We are seeing an increase in sales to buyers from New York, Chicago, Washington and other major cities. And a lot of young professionals are moving here. As a result, I think we'll continue to see Miami become a more lively and hipper place to live.
Kinney: The condominium market for resales won't be as strong as for single-family homes. A lot of international buyers like new construction, and that will continue to be the case. But the better investment next year is likely to be in single-family properties.
Appel: The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is more aggressive than ever in terms of penalizing taxpayers for non-compliance, especially for international transactions. If matters aren't handled correctly, the government is quick to assess penalties. That's not going to change in 2016, and investors need to be aware of our changing regulations and practices.
Hill: The financial markets will always be interesting. The Federal Reserve may hike rates in December and the dollar might rise further against other currencies. That could well affect the aspirational buyer from the emerging middle class in Brazil and Argentina who may want to buy a condo here in Miami, but find it now priced out of reach.
Shindell: I'm waiting to see the effect that All Aboard Florida (a planned private rail line connecting Miami to Orlando) will do to the north edge of downtown. It's also fascinating to watch the continued diversification of Miami's economy. Who would have thought that Turkish money would be flowing into our city or that we would have direct flights to Istanbul? It's an exciting time to be in real estate.
About Our Panelists
David Appel is a senior partner in Marcum's Tax & Business Services division and National Leader of the Firm's EB-5 Investor Services Practice Group. With more than 30 years of multidisciplinary experience in domestic and international taxation, Appel focuses his practice on family business tax strategy and consulting services.
Jonathan Hill, is senior vice president and director of investments, Gibraltar Private Bank & Trust, where his responsibilities include macroeconomic analysis, asset allocation and portfolio construction. Prior to joining the bank, Hill held positions as a trader analyst with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's treasury market policy group and cross-market monitoring group. Earlier in his career, Hill spent time as a trader and junior fund manager with BAC Florida Investments in Miami and as an analyst with ABN AMRO in London and New York.
Teresa King Kinney is chief executive officer of the 13,000 member Realtor Association of Greater Miami and the Beaches (RAMB), which includes more than 12,000 members in their Residential Association and 1,000 members in its Realtors Commercial Alliance. The association also hosts the largest local International Real Estate Council in the nation, with 2,500 members and has partnerships with over 125 international associations around the world.
Harold L. Lewis is a partner of the Miami law firm of Pathman Lewis, LLP, and is head of the firm's real estate and banking, corporate, and transactional departments. Lewis is knowledgeable in real property title issues and has written and lectured extensively in such varied areas as loan workouts and commercial contracts. He represents numerous businesses, both large and small, and prides himself on providing practical legal and business advice on the day-to-day issues affecting business owners.
James W. Shindell serves as chair of Bilzin Sumberg's Real Estate Group. His practice involves the representation of developers, owners, private and institutional investors and lenders in a broad range of real estate matters, including acquisitions, sales, financings, leasing, joint ventures, workouts and restructurings. These matters have involved office, retail, hotel, warehouse, industrial, residential, mixed-use, telecommunications and development properties.
Ron Shuffield is president and CEO of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors® (EWM), a South Florida-based real estate brokerage firm. EWM is the South Florida exclusive affiliate of Christie's International Real Estate (CIRE), a division of the Christie's Art Auction House based in London. Shuffield has been a member of the international advisory board of CIRE since 2001. As a part-owner of EWM since 1984, he sold EWM in 2003 to HomeServices of America, Inc., an affiliate of Berkshire Hathaway. EWM has 800 associates and staff members who are involved in $2 billion of South Florida real estate service transactions annually.
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We think the best way to enjoy Royal Cup coffee is by drinking it, but have you ever wondered about other ways you can use coffee in your daily life? If so, you are in luck! Our team has put together five unique ways coffee grounds can be repurposed to help you live your best life. We hope you find them useful!
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Many who are seeking answers to the moral dilemmas that we face in our modern society, and who wish to fight for the right causes and to help to build a better society, often feel intimidated by the apparent strength of the enemies of truth, especially in regard to forming an effective resistance against them. At the same time, answers that the world (and even some poorly catechized Catholics) offer to some of the more important problems facing our society, seem to create more confusion instead of certainty. The truth might "set one free," but many find that discernment of the truth is not always easy. When entertaining any project—and the battle for truth and justice IS a project— the first thing to be considered is the goal, or purpose, or (to speak philosophically) the end that you wish to attain.
Teleology is the philosophical discipline that has as it's subject matter the study of purpose or ends. In philosophical terms, the end of a frying pan is the use for which its creation was intended, that is the cooking of food to make it safe and palatable for human consumption. All rational creatures have purposes or ends toward which their actions are ordered. A man exercises in order to keep his body healthy, and he pays his taxes in order to stay out of jail, and he makes clocks so that he may be able to tell time. etc. All things have their end or purpose. Ends are classified according to their importance or their placement in the hierarchy of causes. The most essential cause, or final cause is that for which a thing exists. Man exists to give God glory, and the final end to which man himself is ordained is beatitude.
The natural law of the universe is that order which was placed in it by the creator, because all of creation is meant to serve God's end for himself and for man. Since men must, according to the natural law, live in society, all of the actions of that society should be structured to help man attain his final end. When a critical mass of men within that given society understands this, and determines to act upon that knowledge, Catholic civilization is born, and everything about the structure of that society tends to support man in his quest for eternal salvation.
As members of the Church Militant living in the world today, it is part of our duty to make these truths clear to all men, especially our fellow Catholics. IHM Media was founded as a result of many inspirations received through over 30 years of discipleship and teaching at Saint Benedict Center under the late Br. Francis Maluf, M.I.C.M., who was himself the most intimate and faithful disciple of the late Father Leonard Feeney (S.J. and M.I.C.M.). The many recordings of Br. Francis which were previously distributed by the founder of IHM Media are now being distributed by the Brothers and Sisters who are carrying on the work of Br. Francis and Father Feeney in Richmond New Hampshire. IHM Media, as successor to much of that work, is now preparing to broaden our efforts, and to bring some of the fruits of that discipleship to new audiences.
Our goal is that of education and exhortation towards two ends, the salvation of souls and the creation—one might even say the restoration—of a 21st century Catholic civilization here in the Land of Mary—the Americas. Such a goal can only be realized when fully committed Catholics take the time to study the traditions of our Faith, and to integrate those traditions of sound philosophy and deep spirituality, with a clear and Catholic knowledge of history, in order to produce in ourselves a lively understanding of what Catholic Civilization is and the clarity of purpose necessary for us to re-establish it anew. Hence, our motto: Rebuilding Christian Civilization—from the mind up.


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Q: Confusion Matrix in Logistic Regression In Logistic Regression for binary classification, while using predict(), how does the classifier decide for the class (1/0)?
Is it based on the probability threshold, if >0.5 then 1 else 0? If so, can this threshold be manually changed?
I know we get probabilities from predict_prob(), but i was curious about predict() function!

A: Logistic Regression, like other classification models, returns a probability for each class. Being a binary predictor, it has only two classes.
From the source code, predict() returns the class with the highest class probability.
def predict(self, X):
    """Predict class labels for samples in X.
    Parameters
    ----------
    X : {array-like, sparse matrix}, shape = [n_samples, n_features]
        Samples.
    Returns
    -------
    C : array, shape = [n_samples]
        Predicted class label per sample.
    """
    scores = self.decision_function(X)
    if len(scores.shape) == 1:
        indices = (scores > 0).astype(np.int)
    else:
        indices = scores.argmax(axis=1)
    return self.classes_[indices]

So yes, in this case it returns the class with a probability greater than 50%, since the sum of the class probabilities = 1.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


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Publication of a report on alleged corruption involving a Bangladeshi minister triggers false copyright claims to YouTube.
YouTube restores Netra News channel Netra News August 13, 2021
YouTube restored the Netra News channel after disabling it for less than 24 hours after the video sharing and social media platform received a series of false and malicious "takedown notices" claiming that three videos posted on the Netra News account were not produced by the news organisation but by someone else.
"We have determined that the copyright takedown request we received for these [videos] was invalid," YouTube informed Netra News, a day after the channel was disabled.
The series of false and malicious copyright claims were first sent to YouTube immediately after Netra News posted on August 10th a video on its channel — "ওরা প্রতিমন্ত্রীর লোক — নেত্র নিউজের অনুসন্ধানী প্রতিবেদন" [All the state minister's men – investigative report by Netra News] — which had accompanied its investigative story detailing alleged breaches of anti-corruption laws by Nasrul Hamid Bipu, the state minister at the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources.
"YouTube quickly realised that these copyright claims were fake and our channel is now back on line." said Tasneem Khalil, the Editor-in-Chief of Netra News. "All the videos posted on the Netra News YouTube channel are made solely by Netra News and contain no unlicensed material beyond fair use."
In recent months, Netra News has reported on how YouTube channels and websites belonging to journalists and others who produce material critical of the Bangladesh government have been subject to similar false copyright claims — apparently made on behalf of the Bangladesh government authorities — resulting in their temporary closure.
The video about alleged corruption of the state minister was posted on August 10th and within hours Netra News received an email from YouTube which stated that "Due to a copyright takedown notice that we received, we had to take down your video from YouTube". It gave the name of the person who sent the takedown notice.
The YouTube email went onto state, "You now have 1 copyright strike. If you get multiple copyright strikes, we'll have to disable your account."
On August 12th, YouTube sent two further emails noting that it had received additional "take down" notices claiming copyright over two other Netra News videos – one titled "কোভিড-১৯: বাংলাদেশে সফল লকডাউন মৃত্যুর হার কমাবে প্রায় ৯০%" [Covid-19: Successful lockdown in Bangladesh will reduce mortality by about 90%] and the other titled: "Is this Bangladesh's most worrying Covid-19 statistic?". All three "take down" notices were made by the same person.
The third email stated: "Due to multiple copyright strikes associated with the videos below, your YouTube account has now been disabled."
Netra News was previously subjected to similar attacks which attempted to manipulate Facebook with false copyright claims.●


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The woman sat next to me, her eyes fixed on her mobile, her finger tips brushing lightly over keypad. I waited for her to move her head, to get an eye contact, so that i could introduce myself and get to know her. it seemed odd to me to sit quietly, as if wrapped in anger, sealed lips. A little smile can speak thousand words. I waited.
The waiter began to serve the food, cottage cheese in tomatoes, fragrant colorful rice, smoked brinjals. "The food looks delicious" I smiled, looking in her direction. She placed her mobile next to her plate and began to nibble, her eyes fixed on her plate. The women on my right answered "Yes, indeed, quite a feast." For the rest of the evening, I spoke to the woman on my right, ignoring the woman on my left.
We were no enemies, just strangers, seated next to each other on Chef's table to get acquainted with each other while we sampled food. But how can you force a conversation with a person who prefers to stay aloof? After every two bites, she returned to her mobile to make some notes.
After the dinner, she disappeared, leaving no trace except an empty chair. Later, I learnt she was an actress, had few successful TV serials to be proud of. I don't watch TV, so I didn't recognize her.


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Arsenal fans react on Twitter to Per Mertesacker display against Chelsea
Author: Julie Sanders May 28, 2017,
Diego Costa levelled for a below-par Chelsea after Victor Moses had picked up a second yellow card for diving in the Arsenal box, only to see Aaron Ramsey head home the decisive goal three minutes later.
Pinpointing Wenger's decision to switch to a three-man defence late in the season as the key to Arsenal's FA Cup glory, Ramsey said: "Of course I want him to stay at club".
Wenger came under fire from sections of Arsenal's support during a Premier League campaign that concluded with his team failing to qualify for the Champions League for the first time in 20 years.
Stevie Nicol believes Arsenal's FA Cup triumph over Chelsea will be enough to keep Arsene Wenger at the club.
Reports suggest the 67-year-old is leaning towards staying, but he refused to disclose any information about his future and said the situation would be resolved at a board meeting on Tuesday. Money is good, but I'm grateful for what I have right now and I have other things to look forward to, like playing the next World Cup. The first coach to win the FA Cup seven times.
Sanchez said: "I don't know my friend, finished now, so happy for the win and the FA Cup, happy for the players, now I don't know". "And on Wednesday or Thursday it will be clearer".
Chelsea manager Antonio Conte were unhappy with the first goal. "It would be a good crowning of what we have done in the last two months".However, Ferguson - who rivalled Wenger in the top-flight during his storied career with Manchester United - says that the events of this season cannot overshadow the Frenchman's work at the Emirates.
"The first goal should never have been allowed - it was clearly a hand ball and then Ramsey was offside because he was interfering in play", the goalkeeper was quoted as saying by Chelsea's official website on Sunday.
He started just 15 games for Chelsea this season, four of them in their past six Premier League games, to help the Blues win a sixth top-flight title.
Chelsea started the second half with more tempo and Footballer of the Year N'Golo Kante warmed David Ospina's fingers with a deflected drive from distance before Moses brought a fine save from Ospina after Costa played him in.
"For me this season was incredible".
"As a team we were not at our best".
"It is very important to understand this and understand this season was incredible".
Looking for treats, black bear gets stuck in car, honks horn
G7 Summit Ends Without U.S. Joining Consensus On Climate Change
UK: Manchester Police Arrest Another Suspect in Bomb Probe, Total 12
Charles Krauthammer: Middle East Peace Starts In Saudi Arabia
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Dad and daughter through to live semi-finals of Britain's Got Talent
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Watch MI vs RPS live IPL 10 Qualifier 1 on Hotstar
Palestinian prisoners end 40-day mass hunger strike after reaching deal
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Ram Gopal Varma's 'Guns & Thighs' trailer storms the net
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Egypt directs airstrikes on Friday attackers' training camps in Eastern Libya
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Not going to comment on Kushner: Trump's NSA
Kushner previously volunteered to share with Congress what he knows about these meetings", Gorelick said in a statement Thursday. Corker said it appears, based on the recent reports, that Kushner is not a "target".
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Yankees retire Derek Jeter's number 2 jersey
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There aren't many travel experiences to top an African safari, which can transport you into a whole new world of beauty, nature and wildlife. We asked the Lightfoot Travel team to name some of their favourites.
Kenya is a world of majestic animals, sweeping grasslands, sandy beaches and breathtaking sunsets. Start in the Maasai Mara, famous for its exceptional population of lions, leopards and cheetahs. Embark on a walking safari in the Great Rift Valley, indulge in romantic picnic on the kopje where scenes from Out of Africa were filmed, or enjoy the views from a hot-air balloon. Then, head to Loisaba in Laikipia County; a 56,000-acre wildlife conserve and a haven for more than 260 species of birds and 50 species of mammal (including wild dogs, thought for many years to be extinct in the region). Complete your trip at the super-luxe Alfajiri Villas in Diana Beach, an hour south of Mombasa.
Lightfoot tip: Don't miss the annual migration of zebra, Thomson's gazelle and wildebeest every year between July and October.
Home to vast craters, impressive lakes and sandy white beaches, Tanzania provides the ultimate safari experience. Start your adventure at Tarangire National Park, known for its hilly landscapes dotted with baobab trees, dense bush and high grasses. Herds of up to 300 elephants congregate here, while migratory wildebeest, zebras, buffalos, impalas and elands can also be seen. Spend time at Lake Manyara National Park, known for its flamingos, before continuing to the Ngorongoro Crater, a UNESCO World Heritage site and one of the most famous wildlife areas in the world. Lastly, venture into the Serengeti, home to the Great Migration of wildebeest and zebras. Make the charming Dunia Camp your base and go wildlife viewing or birdwatching, or sit back and relax at camp while watching the animals on the grassy plains before you.
Lightfoot tip: Extend your stay and track chimpanzees, or go on a walking safari in the Serengeti with one of East Africa's top safari guides.
Your journey to the wild, remote and stirring desert land of Namibia begins at Sossusvlei, home to the tallest red sand dunes in the world, which can rise to a staggering 330 metres. Stay at the lovely Little Kulala Lodge and embark on daily nature drives – make sure you set your clock early to see the vibrant colours of the dunes as the sun rises. You'll continue to the Skeleton Coast to see remnants of shipwrecks, wind-swept plains, seal colonies, huge canyons, rolling sand dunes and beautiful salt pans. Complete your trip at the Kunene River where you can go boating, spot crocodiles, head on quad bike excursions and visit a Himba settlement – home to one of the last true semi-nomadic tribes in Africa.
Lightfoot tip: From this summer, you can stay at the newly refurbished Serra Cafema, located on the banks of Kunene River, which promises to be outstanding.
Luxury with a light footprint and exclusivity defines the high-end Botswana safari experience. Start your journey at Jack's Camp, on the edge of the Kalahari Desert, with accommodation in tented suites with ensuite bathrooms and opulent 1940s-style décor. Your days will include walking with San trackers while looking for meerkats, zebras and wildebeest. Continue to the Okavango Delta and travel through the waterways in a traditional-style dugout canoe, or discover the richness of the area from horseback or a hot-air balloon. Spend your last few days hiking and canoeing on the Selinda Adventure Trail while searching for cheetahs, lions, leopards and other animals.
Lightfoot tip: Add a few days to your trip and visit the magnificent Victoria Falls, one of Africa's original showstoppers.
Walk in the footsteps of the rare and critically endangered mountain gorillas on a safari that takes you deep into the rainforests of Rwanda. You'll head to the cultivated foothills of the Virungas and become immersed by rainforest, alive with colourful birds and butterflies. After weaving through overhanging vines, you'll spend your days monitoring the gorillas, watching as they go about their daily life, feeding, playing, resting and raising their young. Stay at Bisate Lodge, a magnificent six-room villa that offers daily treks and encourages guests to participate in biodiversity conservation efforts as well as engaging with the local community.
Lightfoot tip: Extend your holiday with a visit to Akagera National Park – central Africa's largest protected wetland – where you can spot everything from elephants to waterbucks and roan antelopes, plus nearly 500 bird species.
This article first appeared in the June 2018 edition of Expat Living. You can purchase a copy or subscribe so you never miss an issue!


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After whirlwind trip to Shanghai to visit younger sister (Mei Mei in mandarin) am back to continue getting garden ready for winter slumber - we don't aim to have lots going on in winter here - usually pre-occupied with keeping warm in front of the fire and planning next year's garden with bulb, tree, shrub & seed orders - helped along with a glass of wine.
Latest bulb order has just arrived so will be sorting through that - lots of tulips for the pots next spring but they won't be planted until later in November. Love trying to work out what will look good together - current favourites include Uncle Tom - a really good red.


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NSF Partners with BeVeg to Launch Vegan Certification Program
This article was originally published in www.nsf.org
The BeVeg vegan standard assures consumers while enabling brands to independently validate product claims.
Whether for reasons related to health and well-being, animal welfare, or the environment, veganism continues to rise around the globe. As a result, companies are becoming even more innovative in developing products for this lifestyle. Today, there are more products labeled "Vegan" on supermarket shelves and menus than ever before.
To support this market growth while ensuring trust and confidence in vegan labels, NSF has partnered with BeVeg to launch a new Vegan certification program for manufacturers, brands, and retailers in the areas of food and beverage, personal care products, and dietary supplements.
The Vegan certification is based on the BeVeg Vegan technical standard. BeVeg International holdsISO/IEC 17065 accreditation to offer the BeVeg Certification. The standard provides valid Vegan certification for the global market, as it was also built in accordance with ISO 17067 as a conformity assessment program for uniform application. BeVeg is recognized by foreign certification bodies and accredited by National Accreditation Center (NAC), a member of the Asia Pacific Accreditation Cooperation (APAC
"In partnering with NSF, BeVeg further expands our reach to consumers and retail chains worldwide by instilling confidence and accountability through the legal credibility our standard is backed by," said Carissa Kranz, Esq., Founder and CEO of BeVeg.
NSF provides a third-party validation that products are vegan, free from animal ingredients and cruelty-free.
"When your lifestyle affects what you can and cannot eat, being able to trust a product label and claim integrity is extremely important," said Sara Risley, Director of Product Certification, Global Food Safety, at NSF International. "NSF is excited to partner with BeVeg International to certify products to the BeVeg Vegan standard — one that is recognized globally for providing trust and transparency to consumers."
What Does This Mean for Consumers?
For the plant-based, flexitarian or Vegan consumer, the BeVeg Vegan certification trademark on consumable products means you can rest assured it is 100% plant-based, free from animal material and cruelty-free and that it meets the following criteria:
Does not contain any animal ingredients, animal byproducts or animal-derived GMOs or genes in the manufacturing and ingredient sourcing of the finished product (no meat, fish, fowl, silk, insect dyes, misleading natural flavoring, eggs, milk, lactose, honey, etc.)
Comes from a factory that was audited to demonstrate a commitment to Vegan controls and Vegan integrity to prevent cross-contamination with animal materials (purchasing controls, label checks, allergen controls, separation, segregation, and other global food and product safety initiatives are formally confirmed in place)
Does not involve animal testing and is cruelty-free
How Does This Help Product Manufacturers?
Businesses that successfully certify a food, beverage, cosmetic, textile or other consumable product to the BeVeg standard will be able to use the official BeVeg Vegan trademark logo on their product packaging, allowing consumers to recognize instantly that their product is officially Vegan. BeVeg builds brand trust and consumer confidence by eliminating the wishy-washy Vegan claims on product packaging currently made without an official standard.
Businesses can also bundle the BeVeg certification with other NSF certifications, such as non-GMO, organic, gluten-free and kosher, among others. The BeVeg certification involves a four-step process inclusive of facility audits.


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Enter name.
Your name is SERPAZ HELILO.
You fancy yourself an AMATEUR ARCHITECT, harboring a strong interest in WOODWORKING and CARPENTRY. Your hive is riddled with the tools of your trade and the many, many projects you're working on. Projects that, more often than not, you end up growing tired of along the way. You can't help it! You have SO MANY IDEAS, ALL THE TIME, CONSTANTLY. Your ambition tends to reach past the limit of what's possible, but that's just the way you like it. Creativity has no ceiling in your mind.
While on the job, you have a nasty habit of ACCIDENTALLY HURTING YOURSELF over and over, without fail. Most would consider that a problem, but these little oopsies of fate tend to make your life BETTER rather than worse. After all, you are a person who believes in the potential MISTAKES have to turn into MIRACLES — a philosophy your matesprit doesn't buy into nearly as much. He's wrong though, the dummy! There's always a special spark hidden in every situation, just waiting to make things work out in the end.
You are also an ASPIRING JOKESTER who holds a great deal of respect for the COMEDY MASTERS OF THE PAST: folks who spearheaded the charge in making late night laughs a thing of beauty. You even built yourself a little practice stage so you could work on your routine! But really, you're not interested in being GOOD at it. You know you won't make it into the big league chucklebunker anytime soon; your proficiency lies with the pedestrian vertent of PUNS and DUMB PERSONAL ANECDOTES. Still, you keep trying. Being among the very cream of the crop may not be an achievable goal, but hanging out with the middle masses sure beats sulking at the bottom of the barrel!
Hm, what else... Oh! When you were younger, you used to get a reeeeal kick out of trying to unlock the secrets of the most mysterious, sinister instrument of all: the ACCORDION. Just thinking of its haunting notes sends a shiver down your spine.
You still have your old one, which you acquired through some rather ODD MEANS (always check if your sources are reputable and non-stalky before you get things from strangers, kids). You're honestly a bit afraid to touch it, even though your awesome and noble lusus, LEFTY, loves the tunes. She is great and you never ever want to leave her.
Your trolltag is pliableDecadence and you speak with a pretty funny inflection!!!
Serpaz: Smile, you're on camera!


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Home / Books / Fiction / Young Adult / Gilded
By Marissa Meyerpaperback2 November 2021
A new fantastical retelling of Rumpelstiltskin, Gilded is the first instalment in a new duology from Marissa Meyer, the New York Times bestselling author of The Lunar Chronicles.
What if Rumpelstiltskin isn't the villain of the story?
By the following winter solstice, the miller would become the father of a baby girl. She was indeed healthy and strong, and in that, the god of stories had granted the wish precisely as requested. But what the miller had not considered is that the god of stories is also the god of lies. The trickster god. For every story has two sides to it. The hero and the villain. The dark and the light. The blessing and the curse.
Long ago, cursed by the god of lies, a poor miller's daughter has developed a talent for spinning stories that are fantastical and spellbinding and entirely untrue. Or so everyone believes.
When one of Serilda's outlandish tales draws the attention of the sinister Erlking and his undead hunters, she finds herself swept into a grim world where ghouls and phantoms prowl and hollow-eyed ravens track her every move. Erlking imprisons Serilda in his castle and sets her the impossible task of spinning straw into gold, a task she must complete or be killed for telling falsehoods.
In her desperation, Serilda unwittingly summons a mysterious boy to her aid. He agrees to help her-for a price. Love isn't meant to be part of the bargain.
Soon Serilda realises that there is more than one secret hidden in the castle walls, including an ancient curse that must be broken if she hopes to end the tyranny of Erlking and his wild hunt forever.
Write a review - Gilded
Title: Gilded
Author: Marissa Meyer
Publisher: The Text Publishing Company
Category: Young Adult
24/10/2021 5:32:41 PM - Marianne
a marvellous retelling
Gilded is the first book in an as yet untitled series by NYT best-selling American author, Marissa Meyer. Rumpelstiltskin. You remember, don't you? That Brothers Grimm story. The poor miller, the miller's daughter, the greedy king who imprisons her to spin gold from straw, the magical man who does the spinning, for a price, the gold locket, the ring, the promised firstborn, the to-be-guessed-at name. This is that story, but with tweaks, embellishments, twists and enhancements as only Marissa Meyer can do them. Thus a few pages become an enthralling five hundred. Once upon a time, in the north of the Kingdom of Tulvask, in the village of Märchenfeld, just south of the menacing Aschen Woods, a daughter is born to a poor miller…. nup, that's not how this story starts, but it could. Now eighteen, Serilda Moller is that miller's daughter, born under the blessing (or curse) of Wyrdith, god of fortune and of stories (lies), her black irises etched with a golden wheel of fortune, Wyrdith's mark. That god's other legacy is Serilda's story-telling, tales that just pop into her head, that sometimes seem touched by prophesy, but are seen by all except the village schoolchildren as dreadful lies. The villagers consider her cursed, the cause of every piece of bad luck they suffer. The king who locks Serilda in a room to spin gold from straw is not your run-of-the-mill king: His Grim, Erlkönig the Alder King is the ruler of hellhounds and other fearsome magical creatures, ghosts, the undead and the dark ones; he leads the wild hunt that happens every full moon, when people lock their doors and hold onto their children. Serilda is certain that the person who spins the straw to save her from the Erlking's wrath is not a ghost, but quite what he is, she can't guess. Mischievous, but not an imp, that's for sure: he looks just like a human boy her own age. Gild is the name he tells her to use, and she learns that the townspeople of the castle town of Adalheid fondly refer to him as the Vergoldergeist, The Gilded Ghost. The more she gets to know him, the more she realises there's no malice in him, and that, captive in the castle, he is starved of human company, craving human touch. And having been avoided by the village boys (those unholy eyes), she's incredulous that he finds her attractive. Soon, though, Serilda's concern about her own fate at the Erlking's mercy is eclipsed by her anger on behalf of his ghostly servants, denied eternal rest in Verloren due to their captivity in the castle, and the ordinary folk who succumb to his thrall, and an uncertain fate, on full-moon nights. And before long, a more personal aspect to her anger emerges. Serilda wonders, too, about the fate of the royal family who owned Adalheid Castle before Erlking captured it, and for what purpose this magical king needs to amass all this spun gold. What a marvellous retelling of this classic tale Meyer gives the reader: a cast of intriguing, appealing, quirky or downright nasty characters; her version of the plot is clever, imaginative and has enough mystery to keep the reader engrossed and the pages turning; there's humour and romance and a number of satisfying "aah" moments as it all unfolds; and sufficient unresolved issues to have readers eagerly anticipating the sequel. More of this, soon, please! This unbiased review is from a copy provided by Text Publishing.
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