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Podcast on opinion polls
I had the great pleasure of talking to my good friend and colleague, Jack Bridgewater, about opinion polls on the podcast How to Win Arguments with Numbers. The other guests on the podcast this season are Matthew Goodwin, Ruth Dassonneville, Shane Singh, Amanda Bittner, Robert S. Erikson and Joshua Townsley.
You will not learn a lot about how to win arguments with numbers, but hopefully a thing or two on opinion polls. You can find it on Apple Podcasts and SoundCloud. Or listen here:
Read the lightly edited transcript (with references):
JACK BRIDGEWATER: Thanks for coming on the podcast, Erik. If we can begin by just asking the question: what is polling? We talk a lot about polls and a lot of people have different interpretations of polls, but I think it is seldom that we actually think about "What is the methodology behind polling?" and "How does this process actually work?".
ERIK GAHNER LARSEN: Thanks for having me on, Jack. When we talk about polling we generally talk about opinion polls. What we talk about is a survey designed to represent the opinions of a population. We can't go out and ask everybody about their opinions all the time, but we can ask a representative sample of a population. So we can ask some people and by asking some people, we can make conclusions about a lot of people. You can compare it to a blood test. Luckily, we do not have to test all blood in a body before we can make conclusions about, say, your body. In the same way, by asking a representative sample of a population, we can make conclusions about what a population thinks of an issue.
However, we rely on certain assumptions. First of all, we make the assumption that opinion polls are representative of the population, so we have the idea that the sample is – on all characteristics – similar to the population, e.g. an equal amount of men and women compared to the population, young and elderly voters and so forth. That's also where we can see some opinion polls go wrong, if there are systematic biases. But even when there are no systematic biases, we will still have uncertainty. The thing about opinion polls is that we will never talk about 100% certainty. We will have some margin of error, when we talk about polls. I think that is something that is sometimes lost in translation when we are unable to disseminate or communicate the uncertainty we are working with in an opinion poll.
BRIDGEWATER: What are some of the other problems with polling? What else can go wrong?
LARSEN: We are having issues with the way people respond to polls and whether they are responding at all. We have response biases and non-responses biases. We know that the ways questions are asked affect the answers we get. One of the issues we had in the 2016 election was whether people would lie about voting for Trump or not, the argument being that some people would like to vote for Trump but would not be honest about that. So we have a lot of challenges whether to, first of all, whether people are being asked, i.e. whether we are good enough at making a poll representative, and, second, when we get a representative poll, to shed light on to what extent we are tapping into people's true preferences and attitudes.
BRIDGEWATER: I think, as an outside perspective, it is often underappreciated just how important polling is to all of the social science. Not only voting behaviour, but to all of the social sciences.
LARSEN: Totally. More generally, we live in a democracy and it is important to know about people's opinions. The best way to know about that is to ask people in a systematic manner. That is something a lot of people do in the social sciences, including political scientists and psychologists. A lot of my colleagues do nothing but conduct surveys and opinion polls, and we know that it is one of the best ways to tap into what people think about certain issues. For better or worse, it is one of the best methods we have; we have alternatives such as vox pops and betting markets. For example, we had betting markets in relation to the Brexit referendum. We also know that politicians, and in particular governments, care about opinion polls as well. Politicians look at opinion polls when they design policies and we know that parties conduct their own opinion polls for internal use to test different political messages.
There is also a brand new study out in the journal West European Politics showing that when governments are polling well, then they are more likely to call an election. Governments look at opinion polls and ask "If we call an election now, are we able to win?". And conversely, if they are doing bad in the polls they are more likely to split up the government without calling a new election. So we know that opinion polls are quite important, not only for scientists, but also for politicians and the public. To understand contemporary politics, we need to look at opinion polls.
BRIDGEWATER: But the fact that governments could be more likely to call an election if they are doing well in the polls, well, obviously we saw an example of that in the UK with Theresa May. That was probably one of the motivations, that they were so ahead of Labour. But that could tap into a fundamental misunderstanding of polling. There is a lot of evidence to show that outside election periods, opinion polls to do with voting behaviour are not massively informative.
LARSEN: They are to a large extent. However, you are correct that we can't necessarily predict an election by looking at opinion polls. We know that a lot of things can happen during an election campaign. A government can only look at the polls and see what people will vote today, but they can't call an election and say "Oh, tomorrow you need to go to the polling station and give your vote". We can only look at the opinion polls and make certain assumptions and predictions. That being said, they tend to be somewhat correct in what they are predicting.
BRIDGEWATER: If we think about recent polls, that have been seen as failures, most notably Brexit, the 2017 UK election, the 2016 US election, popular opinion seems to be that polling is in crisis, but that isn't necessarily the insider perspective?
LARSEN: No, exactly. The popular take at the moment is that opinion polls are wrong and we can't use them anymore. We had, as you say, the Brexit referendum in 2016. We also had the election in 2015. We had the election of Donald Trump in 2016 where the main take was that the polls were wrong. First of all, for the presidential election, as Professor Erikson told you last week, we also had the popular vote that was actually quite spot on. I guess we are good at looking at these specific examples, but as scientists we also know that we should not cherry pick our cases. When we look at the research that has looked into this, they have a measure on mean absolute error, a measure on how incorrect opinion polls are, and when we look at this measure, we see a strong correlation between what the polls are showing and the election outcomes. So in general opinion polls are quite good at predicting elections. When we look at these data over time, we don't see that opinion polls are becoming less good at predicting election outcomes.
There has of course been some cases where the opinion polls could have done better, but we also have a negativity bias. When opinion polls are doing fine, we tend to forget that – and only look at the specific polls that are incorrect. It's like the referee in a soccer match where we only remember the decisions that were made that we do not agree with. When opinion polls are doing a fine job we tend to not even recognise or appreciate that. When we look at this in a systematic manner, we see that most polls are doing just fine. What might be the more interesting issue is how polls are being used and how they are being covered in the media.
BRIDGEWATER: Obviously, the media is the middleman between the raw polling and the public. You have quite specialist sites like FiveThirtyEight who are more glued up on how polling works and how we should be a bit more cautious when looking at certain outcomes, but when it comes to media outlets, they have some kind of bias, and that's going to massively inform how they report. What is the kind of research on what informs how the media presents polls?
LARSEN: There are two interesting elements to this. We got two different bodies of literature on how the media communicate opinion polls. The one is looking at individual polls. How do media outlets select which polls to cover? What we can see there is that the more extreme a poll is, the more likely it is that it will be picked up by media outlets. For example, if you have six opinions polls and five of them show that nothing has changed the last week, and then a sixth poll shows something very extreme, then journalists are much more likely to pay attention to the last poll showing something extreme, well-knowingly that this is not the case.
I have talked to journalists about this issue. Why is it that they pay so much attention to individual polls? I don't believe journalists are stupid, not all of them at least. They know to a large extent that a specific poll might not be what we will find in follow-up polls, but it is so damn easy to write up an article about that, and it's something that will give a lot of likes, shares and a lot of attention.
I have done some research on this together with a colleague, Zoltán Fazekas at the University of Oslo where we have looked into this issue. We have looked at what types of news stories are being covered and how are opinion polls being disseminated in the coverage.
Second, the more interesting thing in terms of the coverage is when polls are being aggregated. That's what we saw in the 2016 election. It's not like people can say "Yeah, but this opinion poll showed this in the election". What we are looking at, and what we are mostly talking about, when we look at the 2016 presidential election are these forecasts, e.g. that Clinton has a 98% chance of winning the election. That's the more problematic issue, when we take a lot of different polls and add them up together and say that there is a specific probability of a certain outcome.
The person that made the best prediction was Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight. He gave Donald Trump a 28% chance of winning. When people see this, and there is research on this, they are not good at assessing the probability of this actually happen. So what people do is that they overestimate the probability of a certain outcome when they see these numbers presented in a probabilistic manner. When they see that Hillary Clinton has a 75% chance of winning, they don't think about the likelihood of Trump winning. So when Hillary Clinton is not winning, the polls must be incorrect. And of course, some polls were incorrect in key states – it is not about that. However, we are very bad at assessing these probabilities and making sense of them. I think that's one of the key lessons we can draw from the 2016 presidential election. How do we actually communicate and aggregate these opinion polls?
What is happening is that we are getting rid of some of the uncertainty. When we add up all these opinion polls, even though a lot of these polls will be correct, if they are biased in some minor manner they can all add up and give Hillary Clinton a 98% chance of winning which most likely will be false.
BRIDGEWATER: When someone has a 75% chance of winning that means they have a 25% chance of not winning. If they don't win, that doesn't mean the prediction was wrong.
LARSEN: Exactly. I'm quite ambivalent in terms of that interpretation though. You are totally right that it means that one out of four times we will see another outcome, but it is also important to keep in mind that it's an easy excuse to use if you are Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, i.e. "We didn't say 100% so there is nothing wrong". I can see that argument but we might want to think about ways in which we can communicate opinion polls and the aggregated information from these opinion polls while remembering the uncertainty and not communicate these large certainties.
BRIDGEWATER: Based on the information we had at the time, it was still – regardless of the outcome – it was still a sensible prediction to think that Hillary was going to win.
LARSEN: It is a very good point. If we look at the these forecasts in isolation, we can say that Nate Silver only gave Hillary Clinton 72%, but if we look at the other forecasts, one forecast gave Hillary Clinton 85%, and I think it was Huffington Post that gave Clinton 98%. I don't think people just look at one forecast; they look at all of them or at least some of them and say that there is a systematic pattern here. That will of course also affect the overall reporting. We had stories about what Hillary Clinton will do when she is president. It is of course something that will have spillover effects on other aspects of the political coverage. It was basically assumed that she would be the next president.
There are some discussions about whether that could affect the election as well, e.g. whether the certainty that Hillary would win made people less likely to vote or whether people were more likely to vote for a third candidate because Clinton was the most likely winner. So, people might not be good looking at these individual forecasts in isolation. There might also be an asymmetry in the way that we don't think about a probability of Hillary Clinton winning as the same as the reverse, being that she has this probability of losing. It might be that if we had put more attention to the fact that Donald Trump in some forecasts had a probability of 25% of winning, people might have perceived that information in a different way.
BRIDGEWATER: If someone told you that you had a 25% chance of winning the lottery, that would be amazing.
LARSEN: I like those odds.
BRIDGEWATER: Going forward, what are the lessons we can learn – both the media, but also us consumers of news – about how to interpret polls and how to make the best of polls?
LARSEN: The first thing to keep in mind is that polls are not perfect. Some of the people that are the most critical of polls are the people working with them, such as scientists. We need to be critical towards polls. We should accept that they are a great tool but not perfect. They are the best method we know of compared to other methods. It is way better than asking random people on the street about what they think. It is better than looking at betting markets and so fourth.
What we need to have are discussions about how not only to conduct opinion polls in the future, but also how we can ensure that journalists cover polls in the best possible way. They should be aware about the uncertainties, the potential problems with these polls and also some selfawareness about the impact that this coverage might have on the public. One argument could be that these opinion polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies. They can have this bandwagon effect where people are more likely to go with the popular candidate, but that wasn't totally in line with what we saw in 2016. That is the other mechanism, that it might demobilise some voters. Some of these debates are what we should have at the moment.
For the more general aspects of what we will see, we will se that people will also discuss opinion polls in relation to specific elections. We have the midterms coming up in the US and I'm sure there will be a lot of discussions about the quality of opinion polls. We will have people saying that opinion polls were either saved by the election or that they finally proved that there is no hope for opinion polls.
But I couldn't care less about the individual outcomes and how polls are doing in one specific election. It is important to keep in mind that we want to look at overall patterns and how polls are performing in general. Opinion polls might be correct but for wrong reasons. We want to evaluate opinion polls based on the methods that they are using. We want to ensure that they are conducted in a transparent manner so we can evaluate how good they are. That is something that will be interesting to follow in the future.
We know that a lot of researchers are looking at non-representative samples. So, how can we use samples that are not representative of a population but use statistical techniques to make them representative? We had researchers in 2012 using the Xbox gaming platform, which is a very non-representative sample overrepresented by men, young men in particular. They used that data, adjusted the data and used techniques called multilevel regression and post-stratification to actually predict the election. That is some of the interesting things going on at the moment, i.e. researchers trying to use non-representative samples to make polls better.
We also see more and more people use social media data to try to make predictions about the public. As more people from different sociodemographic and socioeconomic groups will begin to use social media, we see that there are endless ways of making interesting predictions about what will happen and tap into public opinion in very interesting ways that we might not even be able to using traditional survey techniques.
When people say that it is the death of opinion polls I think it is the opposite. We have only seen the beginning now and we are going to see a lot more interesting stuff in the future.
BRIDGEWATER: Thanks a lot! Very interesting.
LARSEN: My pleasure.


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As we work towards becoming a global authority in the creative arts, and in business and technology for the creative sectors, our new Pro Vice-Chancellor (Global Engagement) will play a critical role in achieving this vision.
Dedicated to education and research in art, design, architecture, film, communication, business and creative technology to name a few, the University serves the needs of the creative industries both nationally and internationally. Our creative community is made up of around 11,000 students and over 2000 employees in the UK and overseas.
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While some international travel will be required, the role is predominately UK-based with a strong presence across our Surrey and Kent campuses.
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The Steamship Authority is expected to confirm new premises for its Island booking office within the next few weeks.
Boat line general manager Wayne Lamson told the board of governors at their meeting in Hyannis this week that SSA management was considering four potential sites for the relocation of the office, currently operating at the airport business park.
The lease on those premises expires at the end of January and the building's owners, Island Professional Realty LLC, had told the SSA they have other plans for the space, and would not renew it.
Mr. Lamson said two of the potential alternative sites were also at the airport business park. The third was in Edgartown.
In addition, the boat line was continuing talks with airport manager Sean Flynn about the possibility of getting counter and office space in the terminal itself.
"At the moment I feel confident that we will be able to recommend to the board at their Sept. 20 meeting that we will continue to have a reservation office or counter space for in-person reservations on Martha's Vineyard after the lease at our current location expires in January 2012," he said.
This is good news for the mostly year-round residents who use the office. Consideration had been given to closing it because of declining custom over recent years.
In 2001, there were 47,000 over-the-counter transactions. That number declined to just over 30,000 in 2006, and last year it fell to under 18,000.
The office also handles some phone sales, which also have declined, but not so sharply, and deals with Islander issues relating to their profile numbers, for which statistics are not kept.
The operation costs about $300,000 a year to operate, although most of that expense is in staff costs, and there was never any plan to cut staff.
When the matter was first publicly raised at the SSA's June meeting, some board members seemed inclined to close it.
In particular, the board chairman and Falmouth representative Robert Marshall was strongly in favor of shuttering the operation to save money.
At last month's meeting, however, he changed his position, and it was decided to seek alternative sites.
Management revealed another way to save money at this week's meeting.
They proposed, and the board approved, a novel way of conducting the scheduled inspection of the hull of SSA's largest vessel, the Island Home.
For the cost of just $24,600 Northwest Diving Services Inc. of Newport, R.I., will inspect the hull in the water, rather than bringing the boat into dry dock, at a cost more than 10 times as much.
Mr. Lamson explained that a diver would first perform a "pre-inspection dive survey," in preparation for a U.S. Coast Guard-attended UWILD (Underwater Hull Inspection in Lieu of Dry-docking) survey.
The diver would then conduct a "video-enhanced UWILD survey" for presentation to the Coast Guard, and will also conduct "nondestructive" testing of the hull at the direction of a Coast Guard inspector.
The procedure will take place at the Fairhaven maintenance facility in November, he said.
If the Coast Guard is happy with the outcome, the vessel's next hull examination, which otherwise would have had to take place next January, at a cost of around $250,000, will be deferred until November 2014.
Meanwhile, next month another ferry, the Martha's Vineyard, will go into traditional dry dock at Colonna's Shipyard Inc. in Norfolk, Va., and also have some equipment upgrades, at a cost of just under $900,000.


One of the biggest challenges facing small churches and nonprofits today is how to properly manage payroll for their organization. I have grown increasingly alarmed over some of payroll issues I have been seeing lately.
Some financial administrators innocently believed because their church is exempt from taxes that they are also exempt from withholding and remitting payroll taxes.
You should not withhold and match FICA (Social Security and Medicare) taxes from a qualifying minister's pay. See more on clergy taxes.
However, unless your church have filed an IRS Form 8274 and been approved (very few churches qualify for this exemption), your church is not exempt from withholding FICA taxes from their employees' wages and remitting them to the IRS along with the church's share of the tax.
I was discussing my concerns with Bill O'Connell, CPA and founder of the firm I work for, and he stated he was facing a similar situation. He mentioned that many Pastors and Treasurers (paid and volunteer) do not often realize that they can be held personally responsible for the penalties incurred from these payroll mistakes.
Treasurers and Pastors can be personally liable for payroll taxes.
The Church Accounting: How To Guide devotes a whole section of the book to payroll for churches. It covers payroll terminology and forms and then takes you through the steps necessary to set up a payroll, calculate and file the necessary taxes and forms, and even details how to handle the minister's payroll. It also includes sections on filling out IRS forms: 1099 and 1096.
If you have QuickBooks or are considering using it in the future, go ahead and purchase the QuickBooks for Churches and the How To Guide combo for a complete package on setting up and administering a payroll using QuickBooks.
Another confirmation for me that this issue on managing payroll tax issues was a subject that needed addressed with my readers was this month's issue of Church Finance. Dan Busby wrote a very informative article regarding church payroll tax audit.
He stated in this article that even though the IRS has not been auditing churches since 2009, church payroll tax audits are on the rise as they are generally simpler to schedule and conduct.
The Bible says in 2Timothy 2:15 (KJV) "Study to shew thyself approved unto God, a workman that needeth not to be ashamed, rightly dividing the word of truth."
I know this is speaking of the Bible, but God put you in your current position in His kingdom. Does it not behoove us to study the law of the land as well and be His workman that needth not be ashamed?
I believe this is one area, you will begin to see more scrutiny by the IRS, especially with the passage and implantation of the Affordable Care Act.
Even though most of us do not meet the definition of a large employer (50 or more full-time employees) and are not required to provide health coverage…the IRS has stated that they will be looking closer at employee classifications. They are concerned that many organizations will misclassify employees as independent contractors to avoid providing mandatory health coverage.
Regarding ministers: If you are pastoring a local church, you should generally be classified as an employee of that church and receiving a W2 form. Read more in this article: Is Your Minister an Employee or Self-Employed?
However, if you're a small church and only paying your qualified minister, a simple housing allowance. There is no need to pay a payroll service to simply process housing allowance payments.
Please allow me to veer slightly off subject here and jump on my soapbox.
I have repeatedly advised small churches to consider that their minister's compensation should be treated first as housing allowance until it reaches the full (appropriate) amount.
While I'm still up here on my soapbox I might as well add another advisement. Pastors should be requesting voluntary federal and state withholding income taxes to avoid quarterly estimated payments. According to my boss…it also adds to the amounts available to be refunded under the ACA healthcare program.
Ministers receive a very different tax treatment than nonminister employees.
the IRS considers ordained ministers to have a dual tax status.
Which means a minister is considered an employee for federal income tax purposes and self-employed for Social Security and Medicare purposes.
A church should not withhold and match Social Security and Medicare taxes (FICA) from a minister's wages. A qualifying minister also is eligible for tax saving benefits such as a housing allowance.
You need to keep supporting documentation on file to support why you classified someone as a minister. Two such documents could be copies of their ordination or any licensing documentation and their position description.
These forms are so important as it would probably be one of the first things an auditor would request to look at.
You must have fully completed W-4 and an I9 form on file for every employee!
See Step 5 in this Payroll Guide for more information on those forms.
Another important document an auditor would request to see is copies of your W-2 and W-3 forms.
Make sure you have them on file.
Side point: Your W-2 should always match your quarterly 941 Forms. If they don't you're going to hear from the IRS.
Your general ledger must match your W-2s.
An auditor should be able to reconcile the data on your W-2 forms to the general ledger.
your general ledger should show what those additional $23,000 in payments were for and if they were taxable or nontaxable or properly classified and posted.
Housing Allowance payments (reported in either box 14 of the W-2 or in a church issued letter) and nontaxable expense reimbursement payments (under a qualified Accounts reimbursement Plan) could have been part of that compensation amount.
Your accounting should note and reflect all payments. Don't rely on your memory. Carefully note what every payment is for.
Another area where auditors carefully scrutinize is employee's reimbursement payments.
However and this is a big "however" … if you do not have proper supporting documents backing up the reimbursement claims, the reimbursements could be considered income for the recipient and if not reported … could incur penalties as unreported income.
Remember this very important rule … reimbursement request MUST be made within 60 days of when the expense occurred to be considered a nontaxable employee reimbursement payment!
A couple days ago I received this email from one of my readers, "A couple of our church employees were given a restaurant gift card for a small amount $50 - $75). They were both as a thank you for doing a good job. Should this amount be included in payroll?"
My reply was that she should include it the employees' wage reports.
Unfortunately the IRS has decided that cash can never be a de minimis fringe benefit since it is not unreasonable or administratively impracticable to account for its value. The same thing goes for cash equivalents such as gift certificates or gift cards.
The transfer of church owned property to their minister or staff member as a gift is also considered taxable income.
For example, your church purchases a new computer and decides to give the Pastor the old one. This is fine if… the fair market value of that church owned property is recorded as taxable income for your Pastor.
If your church owns a vehicle you should be keeping records of everywhere that vehicle goes and for what purpose.
You can bet if you are in a payroll tax audit and your church owns any vehicles, the auditor is going to want to see mileage logs. They know that many times those vehicles are used for personal use.
So…if your minister and staff have used the church owned vehicles for any personal use, you must calculate the value of those personal miles and reported as taxable income on their W-2 form.
But this will give you a starting point for right now. Start today reviewing how you manage your payroll and make sure that if your organization is ever given notice of an IRS payroll tax audit…you will be ok!
One last tip, according to Dan Busby in that article I was telling you about in Church Finance, if the IRS does come knocking …call your CPA or other tax professional before you do anything.


From the river rushing past to children chattering, the view from my booth at the restaurant reminds me of a front porch I once owned. There wasn't an afternoon on any given Sunday, spring or summer, the swing hanging from its rafters was bare. Now, a restaurant overlooking the mighty Ohio provides my family's shelter from the sun and cultivates an unlimited supply of laughs.
Back then, when the stories were engrossing enough, even the wasps couldn't run us off. With each creek of the swing, family members were more invested, more embedded in the tale.
Since my dad is a retired police officer and other adult males wore the badge as well, the topics ranged from why a woman was at the front door one morning requesting her front teeth back after a catching a ride home in the cruiser, to how one lady who had poisoned her husband by pouring ant poisoning into his milk was sentenced to ten years in prison where her designated work detail was kitchen duty.
I'd curl up and listen, ice-cream dripping onto the concrete and attracting a few dozen ants. I'd wonder how a person could drink ant poison and not taste it.
Sometimes an ornery youngster would set off a Works bomb behind the house to a porch-full of unsuspecting ice-cream eaters and the chase was on. The offender was severely tickled when caught.
Since the teaching profession also runs in my family like the genetic trait carrying our contagious sense of humor, many of the musings were school-related. One student's parent burned down a brand new house by setting the furniture on fire in the living room because he didn't know how to work the thermostat and then there was the student who distributed brownies to over fifty kids before the bake sale that lent a new meaning to "baked" was stopped.
I no longer own that front porch, but the memories are etched into my brain like my boys' handprints in the sidewalk leading to the steps. Time can't steal them and they aren't for sale.
As I sit in the river-front restaurant that serves as my makeshift front-porch this Lord's Day, I feel gratitude for the many squirt-gun fights and smiling faces that flickered across that porch. I thank God for every steak and burnt hamburger that was cooked on the grill there—for even the rare times I got too close and burnt my arm hair … or pushed the grill too close and singed the house siding.
My hamburger today is crispy just the way I like it, but I can't just hop up and chase a youngen through the restaurant with a water hose. Oh, I could, I suppose, but the manager would probably call the cops.
I look across the table at the two officers with me at this outing and smile. I feel safe to express my wild side. I think they would be laughing too hard to even find their handcuffs.
My nephew's snickering and choking on his sweet potato fry as Dad puts a fresh spin on a well-recited story. Maybe a good laugh doesn't have to take place on a front-porch strewn with toy trucks and laser guns; but as the waitress bustles by and a toddler at the nearby table tosses a spoon onto the floor, I recognize the specialness of every Sunday that there was no chef on call or waitress to wave down—only a porch-full of rockers, ants, ice-cream and laughter so thick that to the passing traffic, we must have been as invisible as the poison in that poor man's milk.
Now, I say, life's short—apple strudel a la mode anyone?


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The open plan layout in the living and dining rooms on the ground floor is augmented by floor-to-ceiling windows overlooking beautiful views. The ground floor bedrooms feature walk-in closets, en suite bathrooms and their own terraces.
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This is one of the most beautiful mansions in Dubai, and would make an incredible principal residence, or indeed a splendid second home for our most discerning clients.
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I know we have been very bad at posting blogs for the last few days so we thought we should show you guys what we've been up to. Here are few pictures of that we took over the last few days during different TIFF parties or outings. Well we are sharing the ones that we can, haha, which are mostly from the Bell Lightbox opening block party with K'naan wrapping up the festivities.
I have no clue who this guy is, but he is famous so they told me! I got a good shot of him.
Mr & Mrs. Diet Coke keeping people refreshed!
Mr & Mrs. Diet Coke, super cute outfits!
TIFF party at the Four Seasons. Great live music!


More evidence lawmakers think us voters are dumb. Rob Bishop obviously fears the Green New Deal. Plus, the good and the bad regarding clean air and the Legislature.
It's official. Our legislators are idiots. We won't go into all the strong-arming around citizen initiatives, except to give you a few examples from the Deseret News. Rep. Norm Thurston, R-Provo, wants to make sure voters know what the initiative is and can remove their names from the petition. And signers' names will be posted online. So much for privacy. And wait. Do we require voters to know exactly what they're voting on? Is there some kind of test? Well, it's obvious that legislators think the voters are stupid. Rep. Brad Daw, R-Orem, complained that the initiatives took legislators by surprise and would have liked time to negotiate. This, of course, just shows that he didn't listen to his constituents before they were forced into a cumbersome, lengthy and near-impossible ballot initiative effort. Were they not loud enough?
Sometimes humor just doesn't cut it. Congressman Rob Bishop, a former speaker of the Utah House and American history teacher, has long been known for his acerbic wit. It wasn't until he left his position as a lobbyist that his right-wing cred became abundantly clear. Now, as the apparent congressman-for-life, Bishop has taken his anti-environmental stance to an extreme. Except for one time last year. As chair of the House Natural Resources Committee, he moved forward two funding bills for parks, land and water conservation. But wait. Here comes the Green New Deal. He hates it. Here's what he told The Washington Post: "And you think the Green New Deal is going to kill you?" the reporter asked. "Killing would be positive if you implement everything the Green New Deal actually wants to," Bishop replied. This was all about a comment relating the idea to genocide. Funny, huh?
If you're a positive person, you might be buoyed by actions to clean Utah's air. Four hundred or so hearty and active students skipped school to rally at the Capitol for clean air. You know, it's their lives they're talking about. Well, the governor asked for $100 million toward the effort. But our esteemed legislators didn't see the crisis, and allotted $28.8 million instead. There were some good things, like letting some communities work with the big kahuna Rocky Mountain Power toward 100 percent renewable energy by 2030. Of course, it will cost the customer big time. There was some movement on scofflaw idlers, and the carbon tax bill was sent to study. And everyone rejoiced because it was something instead of nothing. Still, we have depleted uranium, gravel pits and the amazing polluting Inland Port.


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Cheap Barbra Streisand Presale Tickets in Los Angeles, Chicago, San Jose, Las Vegas, Brooklyn/New York City (NYC), Boston, Washington DC, Philadelphia and Toronto Available on May 18th
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Ticket Down announces that presale tickets for Barbra Streisand at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA; SAP Center in San Jose, CA; T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV; United Center in Chicago, IL; Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY; TD Garden in Boston, MA; Verizon Center in Washington, DC; Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA and Air Canada Centre (ACC) in Toronto will be available on Wednesday, May 18th. Use customer appreciation promo code BARBRA-2016 for added savings.
Ticket Down is a reputable source of authentic Barbra Streisand presale tickets for her 2016 tour dates. This beloved legendary artist will be touring North America this summer beginning on August 2nd in Los Angeles at Staples Center and the tour will culminate in Toronto at Air Canada Centre on August 23rd. She will be headlining in 9 cities and due to the fact that this multi-talented performer rarely tours, tickets will sell out very fast for this tour.
She also announced her new album Encore: Movie Partners Sing Broadway, which will come out before the end of the year. The last time she toured was back in 2012 with her "Back to Brooklyn" tour. Interestingly, she is the only artist to have #1 albums in the Billboard 200 in six separate decades. Streisand's newly announced album will be her 35th studio album.
Barbra Streisand 2016 Tour Dates:
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August 4 San Jose SAP Center at San Jose
August 6 Las Vegas T-Mobile Arena
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Ronny Prananto is the CEO and Co-founder of Maka Technologies Holdings Group. He has been actively involved in the strategic development community for over a decade and is one of the leading entrepreneur on IT/eCommerce development and Global Positioning System (GPS) solution.
Mr. Prananto has senior experience in successfully bringing start-up companies and divisions across Indonesia, Singapore and China. He has successfully fulfilled such roles at Bestland Pte. Ltd. (Land Development). Ronny has a degree in Business Administration (Entrepreneur) from RMIT University.
Prior to founding Maka Technologies Holdings Group in 2005, Mr. Prananto worked in many local and overseas embassy and hold a senior level managerial position in a Multi-National Corporation.
Mr. Prananto has extensive experience in governmental and charity organisations in South East Asia and internationally. He has worked at a senior leadership level in management, policy development and administration.
In 2013, technologies discussion is about changes in technology, business and society must begin with innovation. In its exponentially increasing volume, velocity and diversity, innovative is becoming a new natural resource.
Thanks to a proliferation of devices and the infusion of technology into all things and processes, the world is generating more demand in navigation equipment every day. The concern of in-vehicle security gadgets also a new product extension since 2013.
Our retail portfolio today is one of the deepest in the industry. It comes from decisive management, market analytics, planning and forecasting, discovery and exploration, business intelligence, predictive analytics, information integration among subsidiaries.
On behalf of Maka Technologies Group, I deeply appreciated on the efforts and sincerity in the recent success of Marbella QB5/QB6 DVR launch. This is our new product extension after the launch of our demanded Marbella MX series since May 2013 from Singapore.
FY2014 is an exciting year ahead not just in our greater market anticipation align with our new product and line expansion, we also wish to stretch our growth humbly in the region.
We have appointed PT. USAHA CERDAS as an exclusive distributor in marketing Marbella products in Indonesia and their marketing channel will be covering all states of Indonesia with an exclusive distributor from 28th May 2014.
FY2014 is very much focus on the expansion of product and new business lines, besides our focus on GPS, DVR, Fleet Management Solution and upcoming sports/lifestyle product, we also wish to concentrate on online trading. The new business arm will continue to surge overall group revenue by leveraging on our strong footage in sourcing from China and United States of America.
I'd also like to take this opportunity to welcome Mr. Jack Tseng on board with us and he will be joining us as the CEO of Maka Corporation (USA) Inc. servicing a greater mission other than providing local trading network and penetration extension products in USA/Canada/Mexico market.
Overall, we expect 2014 will be another strong year for us. Our proven path in humble growth, and we are confident it will keep us on that path going forward.
© Maka Corporation USA Inc. 2014 - 2015. Developed by moving mouse.


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Harriet Matthews
Top 10 most stylishly dressed films
Get some seriously cinematic wardrobe inspiration with our top ten most stylish films...
Cinema can be a stylish beast. A bubbling cauldron of current and original fashion. Going as far back as the 1950s, many style icons have been born and nurtured via the cinema screen. We took our time before finally selecting our 10 films we consider to be more stylish than the rest.
That Addams Family
We kick off with possibly the best dressed family in existence. The Addams family, of course: Gomez with his moustache and his pinstripes, Morticia with her flowing black gowns and red lipstick, Wednesday with her hideously charming china doll dresses, and Pugsley with his Dennis the Menace aesthetic. And don't even get us started on Cousin It – his hair is to die for.
Jean Luc Godard's classic features the best of new wave cool, with star Anna Karina stealing the show. Shot in black and white, the film is immeasurably iconic, and its style has been copy-catted more times than it's possible to count.
This is England (2006)
Love them or hate them, you have to admit; those punks know how to dress. The cool kids in This is England run the gamut from classic punk to mod style to gothic, and no-one has ever made a mullet style haircut look better.
Another group of disgruntled teens are winning all the style awards in John Hughes' eighties cult hit The Breakfast Club. The top prize goes to Judd Nelson with his scruffy denim, his plaid shirt and his dark shades.
Marie Antoinette (2006)
Sofia Coppola's take on the life of the most famous Queen of France is chock full of fashion, frills, fripperies, and multi-coloured macaroons. Fashion and food are combined wonderfully to illustrate the excesses of the French aristocracy, which ultimately led to their downfall. One shoe-filled montage is particularly effective (spot the pair of Converse trainers).
Moonrise Kingdom (2012)
Wes Anderson films are always an exercise in carefully calculated yet seemingly effortless style, but our favourite has to be Moonrise Kingdom. Edward Norton pulls off a Khaki Scout uniform with considerable aplomb, while preteen runaway Kara Hayward is all about the Peter Pan collars and Sunday school shoes.
This one practically goes without saying. Ridley Scott's sci-fi noir is just the right mix of black-and-white 1940s style and futuristic PVC chic, with the tiniest dash of eighties flamboyance thrown in for good measure. Sean Young gets extra points as femme fatale Rachael.
The Thomas Crown Affair (1968)
Faye Dunaway and Steve McQueen pull out all the stops in this classic crime caper. If you can drag your eyes away from Dunaway's surely-that-has-to-be-fake-hair beehive, you can take a gander at the suave suits, the elegant shoes, and the multitude of hats. Why don't people wear hats anymore, dammit?
Starring Colin Firth and Julianne Moore, A Single Man is a master class in sixties chic. The crisp suit, the monochrome dress, the artistic black eyeliner, the perfectly coiffed hair, and of course those dangerously cool pink cigarettes. Smoking yourself into an early grave never looked so cool.
In 2012 Hitchcock's Vertigo ousted Citizen Kane from the top of Sight and Sound's prestigious '50 Greatest Films of All Time' poll, where it had been lording it for 50 years. Even judging by the clothes alone, it's not hard to see why; Kim Novak's wardrobe is so sharp you could cut diamonds with it, particularly that forever iconic grey skirt suit.
#Features #Film #Listicles #stylish films #top ten
@harriet-matthews
Review: Ronja, the Robber's Daughter (2014)
The Daily Melt: Dog Conquers Fear of Walking Through Doorway
The Daily Melt: Tiny Determined Puppy Plays Tug of War wi...
10 Films we forgot won Best Film at the BAFTAs


This book collects case studies and theoretical papers on expertise, focusing on four major themes: legitimation, the aggregation of knowledge, the distribution of knowledge and the distribution of power. It focuses on the institutional means by which the distribution of knowledge and the distribution of power are connected, and how the problems of aggregating knowledge and legitimating it are solved by these structures. The radical novelty of this approach is that it places the traditional discussion of expertise in democracy into a much larger framework of knowledge and power relations, and in addition begins to raise the questions of epistemology that a serious account of these problems requires.
What is the Problem with Experts?
Was Real Existing Socialism a Premature Form of Rule by Experts?


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Make Do And Mend premiere animated video
25.10.11 | GloriaB
New England post-hardcore quartet Make Do And Mend is excited to unveil the video for the single "Transparent Seas".
The track is the second released single from the band's recent album End Measured Mile which was released last year through Paper + Plastick Records.
The clip is a computer animated video created by motion graphics designer Matt Frodsham.
You can watch the clip below.
The band's vocalist/guitarist James Carroll explains about the clip;
"We already did a live action video for the record, and it came time to do another. We decided we wanted to do something that not a lot of our contemporaries have done, so we took the leap and trusted a friend with the project."
"The song itself is about the inability to believe in a higher power, but being frustrated by the fact that that type of belief affords the believer a great deal of comfort and safety. I think that the vibe of the video fits those feelings very well."
An alternate, acoustic version of the song will appear on the band's recently announced Part And Parcel EP which is set to be released November 22nd on Paper + Plastick. You can find out more about the EP here.


Want to up your storytelling game? Want mad storytelling chops? Want to ditch the rambling, fumbling, and churning stomach? Get up on stage and tell your story.
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"Meghan creates a safe space to dive in deep, to get clear and brave and to shine forth brightly. If you are at all curious, just jump in. The water is nice there and you won't regret the risk. Meghan is utterly professional and kind. Her class is amazing.
If you would prefer to pay by cash or check, please contact Meghan.
Partial and full scholarships available based on need. Contact Meghan for an application.
Meghan Vigeant is a storyteller, oral historian, and writer. She has taught oral history, storytelling, documentary, writing, and theater to students ages eight to eighty. She has a BA in theater/speech communications from Siena Heights University and attended the radio documentary program at the Salt Institute for Documentary Studies. She worked as a professional actress touring in the Midwest until she discovered that truth is stranger, funnier, and more fun than fiction; that's when she began to dig into real-life stories. She is the author of Guts, Feathers, and All: Stories of Hard Work and Good Times on Swan's Island, Maine. Through her business, Stories To Tell, Meghan uses oral history and documentary storytelling to help clients save their stories, voices, and history.


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You are at:Home»Television»Horror»Summering in Castle Rock Episode 1-04: The Box
Summering in Castle Rock Episode 1-04: The Box
By Kelly Mintzer on	 August 5, 2018 Horror, Television
I read recently that the intention for Castle Rock is to build it as an anthology series. It's a trend I appreciate in episodic television; a finite storyline can be a boon for thrillers and horror that lack the grand, operatic scope of, say, Hannibal. But my god. Four episodes in, and Castle Rock already has so much going on, I can't imagine how they could possibly wrap up this storyline in one season (there is a potential reality that I won't dismiss, and that I think would be fruitful, where this storyline is not entirely wrapped, and is popped in on through subsequent seasons, until some sort of culminating meet-up finale clustercuss). And yet, for all of the plot at play in these episodes – and make no mistake, it is A LOT of plot – what I most want to talk about for episode four is the presence of music. It feels deliberate in a way that I can't entirely put my finger on, so let's take a look, shall we?
The episode opens with Mystery Guard (his name is Dennis, and if you don't want spoilers, look away… now. There's no use in getting too attached to that name.) going into work at Shawshank, looking drawn and detached, and being needled about his unhappy countenance in a way that feels less like friendly ribbing than a "Big Brother demands your smiles" bit of propaganda, while the weird, percussive jangles of "Clap Hands" by Tom Waits plays in the background. Tom Waits, on the surface, seems like a pretty natural fit for this show. He is one of the absolute greatest purveyors of American mythology through songs – like if Bruce Springsteen's weird uncle were given a bottle of whiskey and a hammer and told to use them however he wants to make percussion to accompany the stories of small town murders, disappointment, and betrayals he's so keen to tell. But to the best of my recollection, this is the first time that anecdotal music has been used in an episode of Castle Rock – and certainly so featured and prevalent a way. It is immediately disorienting; Tom's guttural bark crawling through the scenes along with Dennis; there's a hint of dark humor to the whole situation.
So our friend Dennis is manifesting his displeasure with his current situation in a number of ways. We see, throughout this episode, the repetition of his days, the sameness and the abuse he becomes inured to. And we find out that maybe contacting Henry wasn't entirely for the benefit of Skarsgard (who does NOT have a name yet, so we will keep referring to him thus), but a result of a desire to shut down Shawshank. He is ready to testify – Henry is not ready to take those kinds of steps. In fact, for reasons that we will come back to (sorta?), Henry ultimately accepts a plea that would allow Skars to walk free, but ultimately releases Shawshank from all culpability. Dennis has pretty clearly been hanging all of his hopes for redemption, for a future, on Henry – and with that hope gone, he becomes hollow. But let's push pause on him for a moment.
So Henry. Oh man, there's so much happening with Henry, so I'm going to try to be economic with my words. He is in the process of having his father's body moved back to Castle Rock (more intimations throughout this episode that dear old dad was probably a dear old dick). He and Alan are butting heads on the trip: Henry wants to move his mother nearer to him, Alan is not ok with it. Henry implies that Alan (who, we learn, is the man who found Henry after his disappearance as a child) was always in pursuit of his mother, and Alan huffs, puffs, sighs, shrugs. Another strange musical moment; Henry bemoans the old timey song on the radio, and Alan mentions that the tape is stuck in the player. When he switches to the radio, it is right wing bullshit propaganda. Anyway, moving on.
Henry looks into his case file and through some dogged research, finds out that there had been a suspect in his disappearance. A fellow named Desjardin, who is just peak weirdo. Like, a real lunatic. He keeps his brother's fingers in a jar and his house in absolute disrepair. And oh, just for fun, he has a really sturdy cage/box in the backyard, with a shitty looking bowl and spoon in it. He says to Henry, "You know I never touched you", which could easily mean two things: you know I never touched you, because I never took you, or you know I never touched you because I DID take you, but didn't actually touch you. Super. Creepy. Dude. Anyway: Henry goes back to Alan and says, "Hey buddy, why the hell did you just let this lead with evil Boo Radley fall through the cracks, as the investigating officer?" and, pushed to his limit, Alan tells Henry that he let it fall to the wayside BECAUSE right before his father died, he had implicated Henry in his fall. Which recasts pretty much everything about Alan: his surly demeanor, his stand offishness… he's been protecting Henry. Of course, Henry is shell shocked and dubious about this. He goes to see our neighborhood empath Molly (who had previously shown Lacy's house to a weirdly enthusiastic couple looking to buy), and they spend the night together. While I'm assuming they porked, we do not know for certain. What we do know is that Molly has revealed something that changes Henry's mind about staying in Castle Rock to raze Shawshank, because that is when he calls Dennis. Pause.
Skars gets a brief synopsis, but we really should visit anyway. In the beginning, a suited jerkface goes to his cell to try and intimidate him out of going to court with Henry. He talks a big game, but when Skars rises to his full height and starts quoting strange scripture, the guy is clearly shook. I tried to catch all the graffiti in his cell: I saw GFBD, which I have no idea what it means, and David Alan Coe. A quick Google search reveals that David Alan Coe is a songwriter who, in addition to being known for inflicting "take this job and shove it" on the world, was incarcerated for 20 years. A man well versed in prison, and also, a uniquely American songwriter. I think you see where I'm going with this. Skars gets sprung, and now let's push our collective unpause buttons.
Henry goes to Shawshank to pick up his released client. But before he has a chance to, Dennis, now desperate and hopeless, moves through the prison to the dulcet tones of "Crying" by Roy Orbison, systematically mows down his co-workers. It is a remarkable scene. A truly brilliantly executed sequence, caught entirely on the surveillance screens of the prison and escalating to a fevered pitch of violence and crescendoing vocals. Dennis ends his rampage in the waiting room with Henry; he says he wants to testify. Then armed guards shoot him. We don't know if they shot him because of his murder spree, or if they shot him because he said he wants to testify. I have my suspicions.
There is one final question that I want to pose aloud, so that on the off chance it turns out to be right, I can triumphantly say, "ha! I called it!", even though I'm not prepared to fully commit to it. When we have previously heard about the devil being a boy and kept in a box, we have assumed it was Skars. But no name was stated and we know that Henry disappeared for several mysterious days. I'm not saying Henry is the devil, but maybe whoever was making weird prophecies thought he was.
We're inundated with questions right now. And I still feel like the musical selections and references in this episode are pointing us towards something, but I'll be damned if I know what. But I am jazzed to find out.
Kelly Mintzer
Kelly Mintzer hates dolls but loves movies about evil ventriloquist dummies. She is working her way through the "Sandman" series slowly but surely, and has been compared more than once to that iteration of Death. Holding down South Philly with a creative writing degree and the full series of "Hannibal", she hasn't seen her natural hair color in years.
Swamp Thing S01 Ep05 Deep Breakdown: Drive All Night
Swamp Thing S01 Ep04 Deep Breakdown: Darkness on the Edge of Town


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With over 40 years of experience in suspension and chassis system design, working in some of the toughest environments. SuperPro suspension products are uniquely equipped to handle all driving conditions. SuperPro is a member of a group of products and services that involve service workshops, wheel alignment specialists and wholesale distribution centres for a variety of suspension products. The company is focused on quality, service and innovation and has an enviable reputation in its core markets.
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Last modified on Friday, 12 July 2019 01:34


Alcohol acts as a depressant on the brain and other nerve tissues. This means that all the cells and the nerves slow down function when alcohol is induced to the body. Basically, even though some people think that alcohol makes them less controlled and excites them, it is suppressing certain areas of the brain that would be used to control your judgement, reasoning and all the other instincts someone would normally experience. Because it has been determined that essential tremor is usually caused by spontaneous activity in nerve cells in the areas of the brain that control movement, alcohol would be able to suppress these and calm the nerves. As you continue to drink, it impairs your vision, your thinking abilities, and will over time decrease your coordination.
The effects of alcohol and essential tremor are being closely monitored. In a study, it was found that patients with essential tremor who ingested alcohol found diminishing tremor altitude within 15 minutes of ingesting small doses of the ethyl alcohol. It was concluded in this study that ethanol acts in a way on sensitive structures within the central nervous system and has no effect on peripheral tremorgenic mechanisms. So, most people who ingest a small amount of alcohol do experience a small transient improvement.
There are other studies being conducted using octanol, a form of alcohol typically used in perfumes and colognes. It is currently being studied, but so far has been found to treat symptoms with a much lower dose than ethanol, the alcohol usually found in most drinks. There is a potential emergence of a safe and non toxic alternative, so that the dangerous effects of alcohol can be mitigated, and the advantages can be given to those who suffer from the disease.
But, in a different study, it was found that individuals with Essential tremor have an increased risk of developing alcoholism. So, as long as alcohol consumption is controlled, it can be used as a tool for temporary relief of symptoms. Make sure that if you do decide to drink alcohol to help relieve symptoms of essential tremor that you are only drinking the recommended amounts. It is advised that men and women should drink more than 14 units of alcohol per week, spread over several days with breaks in between. A unit of alcohol is about half a pint of beer, or a small glass of wine.
Another thing to remember is that alcohol does and will interfere with other medications that you are currently taking. Make sure that you check with your doctor before using alcohol to self-medicate, so that other essential tremor medications are not being diminished by alcohol consumption. With all the research that is ongoing, hopefully doctors and researchers will be able to come together and find a solution that helps diminish symptoms but is less addictive and habit forming than alcohol tends to be. Since it has been found that alcohol other than drinking alcohol is more effective, this may lead to more discoveries in treatment techniques for patients with essential tremor.


I couldn't really do this gift without including the Kindle. Opinion is divided on e-readers, but personally I think it's one of the best gifts I've ever received, and I adore reading and 'real books'. I would definitely suggest the Kindle paperwhite if your budget will stretch to it (purely as it's designed for low light aswell as daylight); but alternatively the Kindle touchscreen would still be an excellent choice.
Know someone who has a Kindle and misses the scent of 'real' books? Get them a 'vintage bookshop' scented candle! You could also get them a book cover case to make it look more like an actual book; how pretty is this Pride and Prejudice Kindle case?
If you know someone who reads a lot of books and likes to keep a record of them, a Moleskine Books Journal is your answer. This would be a great gift if you know someone who is in a book club or studying literature, or even a book blogger.
This a '50 books to read before you die' bookmark would be a fun challenge to set someone and will also be a nice keepsake – especially if they manage to read all 50 books!
I love to read a good book with a nice cup of hot tea and I'm sure many other readers feel the same, especially in Britain as we love a good brew! I thought this mug with 'Happiness is a cup of tea & a really good book' written on it was really lovely, and as a huge book lover I would be happy as a clam to receive this as a gift.
And if all else fails… give the gift of books! A National Book Token will allow them to pick up a book or two of their choice. Alternatively an Amazon gift card would be better if they are a Kindle owner.
*All links correct at time of writing.


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Letters from Readers
Times-Union Readers
Trump's legacy will include
more than just impeachment
The reliable left winger from Ponte Vedra noted that impeachment would be prominent in the legacy and obituary of Donald Trump. He's probably right.
Along with the foolishness of the articles of impeachment, Trump's legacy will include the embarrassment of the Mueller probe and media coverage, an improved economy based on deregulation and bringing the American tax code into alignment with the industrialized world and the lowest unemployment and fastest wage growth in recent history including the lowest unemployment for minorities in history.
Also, Trump is the first president in history to stand up to China's abusive trade policies, Iran's exportation of terrorism in the Middle East, Europe and South America and implemented the strongest sanctions on Russia and North Korea.
He added non-activist judges, responded to illegal immigration, identified the corruption in the "deep state" and brought our NATO allies to account for their obligations. There is much more.
The guy is not a great man. Most of our leaders are not. He has accomplished much more than the kangaroo impeachment.
Ted Hagan, Jacksonville
Reactions to impeachment
are actions of a guilty man
One of the reasons the impeachment hearings held by the Democratically controlled House might have appeared to be one-sided is President Donald Trump prevented everyone that he could control from testifying.
This has been Trump's mantra every time he is caught doing something he shouldn't — loudly proclaim he is a victim, complain vociferously about bias in the process and prevent those around him from saying anything.
Does that sound like an honest man, or someone who wants to use the system, especially the "liberal media," for his own purposes?
What he does not do — and what no Republican has done so far — is offer any proof of his innocence. The report of his phone call that was released by the White House confirmed what the whistleblower complained about, and that was confirmed by many witnesses.
He will no doubt be acquitted by the Republican Senate, but ask yourself this: Why would an innocent man want to prevent people from getting on the witness stand and telling the truth?
Mike Lawrence, Avondale
Jacksonville Art League
needs city government help
The Jacksonville Art League gets no funding except some use of recreation buildings in this city.
How about the mayor supporting in some tiny way the relatively new organization that service our community in various neighborhoods?
The Jacksonville Art League provides low-cost art programs in painting, drawing, pottery, sculpture, print making and an art history open library as well as afterschool art experiences for children and for home-schooled children.
Surely, Jacksonville wants to foster the growing interest in art among young people and especially organizations such as Jacksonville Art League who fill in the space left from a steady decline of visual arts in the public school system because of budgets and the public school administrator's disinterest in the value of visual arts education.
Roger Bailey, retired teacher, Jacksonville


This weekend we visited Ludlow, a lovely market town with lots of gorgeous vintage shops. My absolute favourite shop is called The Silver Pear visit silverpear.co.uk and it is full of lovely gifts and beautiful baby clothes and toys.
I found this pretty Alphabet Bunting by merimeri.com which I thought would be great for a wedding or nursery.
We also found a vintage flea market and came across these adorable teacups, which could be used for a vintage themed wedding or made into candle gifts. Visit my Tutorials page to find out how to make one.
On our way home we visited Ludlow Food Centre which also has a garden centre on site. Here they sold some vintage style peg bags.
Visit my Tutorials page to find out how to make one.
A gorgeous vintage wicker picnic basket.
An adorable fox chair for a child's room. Love this!
Ludlow is definitely worth a visit if you love antiques and gifts, they also have a market in the town square on a Saturday.


Venezuela polarizes the tension between US and Russia/China.
The United States warned on Monday, March 25, that it will not remain passive while Russia exacerbates tensions in Venezuela with its support for the government of Nicolás Maduro .
According to State Department spokesman Robert Palladino, Pompeo also urged Lavrov to cease his "unconstructive behavior".
Pompeo made the call to Moscow just hours after Russian planes arrived in Caracas over the weekend as part of the military cooperation between the two allies.
The United States and 50 other countries have recognized the president of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, as Venezuelan president, after considering the May 2018 elections as fraudulent, in which Maduro was re-elected for a second term.
Russia and China are Maduro's main allies and do not recognize Guaidó.
Last week, officials from the United States and Russia met in Rome to talk about Venezuela but remained aloof on how to resolve the acute political and economic crisis of the South American country.


Old Jamaica Ginger Beer is the UKs favourite and we think best ginger beer. Made with real fiery Jamaican root ginger its the best way to fight fire with fire and a great drink anytime either on its own or as a mixer.Old Jamaica is available in all supermarkets and lots of newsagents. You should never be too far away from great fiery refreshment.


The most popular entry in our Foodnited States series, S'moregon will help make you feel warm and fuzzy hanging on any wall.
Light up the campfire, break out your long sticks, and clear a little space on the wall -- the gooeyness will help improve any decor.
8"x8". Printed on quality 100lb cover stock. Gooey.


text:
Q: Unable to copy an array after using malloc void replace(char* str) {
    unsigned int len = 0;
    unsigned int no_of_spaces = 0;
    char* temp = str;
    int* space_positions = NULL;
    while (*temp) {
        if ((char)*temp == SPACE) {
            no_of_spaces++;
        }
        temp++;
        len++;
    }

    printf("%d\n", len); / prints correct value

    void* str_copy_allocation = (char*) malloc((sizeof(char) * len) + 1);
    char* str_copy = NULL;
    if (str_copy_allocation)
        str_copy = str_copy_allocation;
    else {
        fprintf(stderr, "Invalid allocation occured");
        perror("Error printed by perror");
    }
    temp = str; // point to starting of str
    while (*temp != '\0') {
        *str_copy++ = *temp++;
        printf("%c\n", *str_copy);
    }
    str_copy[len] = '\0';

    printf("%s\n", str_copy);

    temp = str_copy; // to the start of str_copy
    unsigned int new_len = len + 2 * no_of_spaces + 1;
    str_copy = realloc(temp, new_len);
    if (str_copy == NULL) {
        fprintf(stderr, "Invalid reallocation occured");
        perror("Error printed by perror");
    }
    str_copy[new_len] = '\0';

    printf("%s\n", str_copy);
}

Here I am trying to make a copy of a char array and then increase its size. I am getting Aborted (core dumped) when I copy the value of temp to str_copy. Since str is a user-defined string, in order to increase it's size I must make a copy of it. That copy is str_cpy and then I will increase size of str_cpy and return that as the new string.
The print statement printf("%c\n", *str_copy); in the while loop prints empty character!
What could be the reason?

A: You have two problems, firstly as user312023 pointed out at the line str_copy[len] = '\0'; str_copy has been incremented. You need to put str_copy = str_copy_allocation;above this line to point back to the start of the string.
The other problem is your printf loop
    while (*temp != '\0') {
        *str_copy++ = *temp++;
        printf("%c\n", *str_copy);
    }

The str_copy has already been incremented when you print, so you're printing the next character in str_copy (which you havent copied from temp yet). To see what you copied you should increment str_copy after the print, like this
    while (*temp != '\0') {
        *str_copy = *temp++;
        printf("%c\n", *str_copy++);
    }

With these two changes the code works.
EDIT: Another issue is that when you enlarge the string with the reallocation, and put the null terminator on the end, your string already has a null terminator in it at position str_copy[len], that was copied from the smaller length string. So any functions to act on that string wont consider the extra memory youve allocated, as they will stop at the first null terminator.
To show this, try using the function on some string, eg
replace("my string");
Then in the function, at the end before the final printf, add something like str_copy[len+1]='x';.
You will notice this x isnt printed, because printf stopped at the first null terminator, which is at the 'end' of the string before you reallocated more memory. If you instead do str_copy[len]='x'; str_copy[len+1]='x', then both x's are printed because youve overwritten the null terminator you copied from the precious string.
So to fix this, simply put str_copy[len]=' '; before or after the line that says str_copy[new_len]='\0';, and this will overwrite the null terminator from the smaller string.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


I would strongly recommend Optimum Tutoring to anyone sourcing remedial help with High School studies. Dallas conducts himself professionally with a strong understanding of Physics and Math.
Thank you for tutoring Shayla - we are very grateful for the knowledge she gained. You are an excellent teacher and the encouragement outside of math was inspirational to her. She will cherish your love and caring for many years to come. Your confidence in Shayla's abilities has helped her more than all the math lessons put together. It has allowed her to gain confidence in herself, in far more than just math. Thank you very much and enjoy your summer.
Carvy was a very patient and encouraging tutor. He taught at Kayla's level and was willing to work with the assignments she brought home from school. He was accomodating to our schedule and made all efforts to have a lesson prior to unit exams. This was a very challenging subject for Kayla and he helped her succeed in it. We are very pleased and grateful for this service.
We have tried many Math tutoring services for our son, but none of the quality and excellence of Optimum Tutoring. After only a few sessions we noticed marked improvement in his understanding of the material. Our tutor, Ted, was very patient in explaining even the most basic material as well as the complex. Our tutor was also very dependable and he was always on time and followed up with our e-mails. Our tutor encourages independent work which is very important for the learning process. Optimum Tutoring has made a significant impact on our son's understanding of math. We highly recommend their services.
Statistics is the most challenging math course in all my math subjects at the University level. I was having much difficulties in many topics in statistics, that I thought I may have to drop the course. When I found out about Optimum Tutoring, the instructor was able to simplify the concepts from the text book using terms and examples that now made learning much easier and less frustrating. On my first exams I received a grade of B+ and feels much more confident and prepared to excel in statistics. Thank you Optimum Tutoring for having professionals of such high education credential and experience on your team. I would certainly recommend Optimum Tutoring Solutions to any University or college students.
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text:
Q: Upper bound on discrepancy of two sums Can you help upper bounding this?
\begin{equation}
\left|\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{m} a_i}{\sum_{i=1}^{m} t_i} - \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{m} b_i}{\sum_{i=1}^{m} s_i}\right| \leq ?
\end{equation}
where for each $i$ we have:
\begin{equation}
\left| \frac{a_i}{t_i} - \frac{b_i}{s_i} \right| \leq \mathcal{D}_i \leq 1
\end{equation}
$$0 \leq \frac{a_i}{t_i} \leq 1$$
$$0 \leq \frac{b_i}{s_i} \leq 1$$
My conjecture is something $\mathcal{O}(D_i)$ based on some special cases, but generally, I cannot prove it.
Basically, each element of the pair ($a_i/t_i$, $b_i/s_i$) is a normalized value in $[0,1]$, and we have the discrepancy of these two elements. Now we want to bound the discrepancy of the cumulative (not the right term for this, what to use instead?) version of the discrepancy.

A: The bound is $1$, even if $D_i=0$.  To be specific, let $n=2, \frac {a_1}{t_1}=\frac {b_1}{s_1}=1,  \frac {a_2}{t_2}=\frac {b_2}{s_2}=0$  Now if we let $a_1=t_1=1000$  while $b_1=s_1=1$ and $b_2=0, s_2=1000$ while $a_1=0,t_2=1$ we will have
$$\begin{equation}
\left|\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{m} a_i}{\sum_{i=1}^{m} t_i} - \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{m} b_i}{\sum_{i=1}^{m} s_i}\right| =\left|\frac{1000+0}{1000+1}-\frac{1+0}{1+1000}\right|=\frac {999}{1001}
\end{equation}$$
We can clearly get as close to $1$ as we would like by this approach even though $D_i=0$.


text:
Difference between revisions of "User:LordSputnik/Recording Style Guidelines"
< User:LordSputnik
LordSputnik (talk | contribs)
|jira=STYLE-159
=Introduction=
This proposal is designed to improve the guidelines on merging recordings. It is felt that the current guidelines are too vague, and that they don't cover all cases where recordings might be merged. This proposal seeks to expand these guidelines and make them clearer.
==What should and shouldn't share recordings?==
A recording is intended to represent a unique audio source. This means that generally, two releases should only share recordings if the audio source used to create them was the same. An audio source is considered unique as soon as any changes make it different from a previous source.
A recording is intended to represent distinct audio. This means that generally two tracks should only share a recording if the audio that they contain sounds the same. If it isn't clear whether to merge two recordings or not, keep them separate. Where two recordings of the same work are separate for a reason, a meaningful disambiguation should be provided for one or both of the recordings.
===Specific Cases===
#If multiple performances of a single work are recorded and released then each performance is a separate audio source, and each released performance should be given a separate recording.
#Tracks containing different performances of a single work should each use a separate recording, since each performance will result in distinct audio.
#If there are multiple releases of a single live performance and each was recorded by a different device, each device is a separate source and each release should have its own set of recordings.
#Releases of live performances that are recorded by different recording devices should each use a separate set of recordings.
⚫
#Versions of a release that are mastered in audibly different ways should use separate recordings.
#If a CD or other digital release contains audio that was originally recorded and released in an analogue format, the digital release should be given a new set of recordings. The original analogue source was changed when it was converted from analogue to digital.
#If audio restoration is used to create remastered audio from an earlier recording, a track containing the remastered audio should use a recording specific to that remaster.
#If a release is recorded digitally and released in both analogue and digital formats then the releases should share recordings. The audio sources for all releases are the digital recordings.
#A track containing edited or remixed audio should always use a recording specific to that particular edit or remix.
#If two versions of a release are mastered in audibly different ways, then the source has been changed for each mastering, and each release should have its own set of recordings.
#Tracks which contain different numbers of audio channels should always use separate recordings. For example, a mono recording and a stereo recording should never be merged.
#If a release is remastered from an earlier release, all the tracks on the new release should be new recordings. The source was changed when the recording was remastered. If another remaster is made, then the source has changed again, and another set of recordings should be made.
#If a recording is edited or remixed, the new version should have a separate recording. The exception to this case is for changes that only affect the length of the fade at the beginning or end of a track, where a new recording should only be used when the difference in length is greater than 10 seconds.
#If a track begins or ends in silence and a second track changes the length of the silence, but is otherwise identical, these two tracks should share a recording, so long as the silence isn't a significant part of the audio.
===AcoustIDs and ISRCs===
In addition to these cases and the general guidelines, recordings with multiple, visibly different AcoustID fingerprints should not be merged. Instead, the recordings and AcoustIDs should be [[Guides/AcoustID|examined for correctness]].
Both of these identifiers can be incorrectly attached to recordings. For this reason, neither AcoustIDs nor ISRCs should be used as the sole reason for merging two recordings. Different AcoustID fingerprints and ISRCs may be used as a reason for not merging, but bear in mind that they can sometimes be wrong.
Before attempting to work with AcoustIDs, please read the [[Guides/AcoustID|AcoustID Guide]].
In theory, recordings which have different sources should be assigned different ISRCs. In practice however, this doesn't always happen. Recordings with different ISRCs should be examined closely to determine whether they are actually different. Similarly, recordings with the same ISRCs may in fact be different, so care should be taken before merging them.
Status: This page describes an active style guideline proposal and is not official.
Proposal number: RFC-Unassigned
Champion: LordSputnik
Current status: RFC
Initial Discussion
JIRA ticket STYLE-159
Edit http://musicbrainz.org/doc/Style/Recording to change the section "What should and shouldn't be merged together?" to the following.
What should and shouldn't share recordings?
Tracks containing different performances of a single work should each use a separate recording, since each performance will result in distinct audio.
Releases of live performances that are recorded by different recording devices should each use a separate set of recordings.
Versions of a release that are mastered in audibly different ways should use separate recordings.
If audio restoration is used to create remastered audio from an earlier recording, a track containing the remastered audio should use a recording specific to that remaster.
A track containing edited or remixed audio should always use a recording specific to that particular edit or remix.
Tracks which contain different numbers of audio channels should always use separate recordings. For example, a mono recording and a stereo recording should never be merged.
If a track begins or ends in silence and a second track changes the length of the silence, but is otherwise identical, these two tracks should share a recording, so long as the silence isn't a significant part of the audio.
AcoustIDs and ISRCs
Before attempting to work with AcoustIDs, please read the AcoustID Guide.
Retrieved from "https://wiki.musicbrainz.org/index.php?title=User:LordSputnik/Recording_Style_Guidelines&oldid=60926"
Proposed Style


text:
170mm M1989 Koksan
152mm 2S3 Akatsiya
155mm Caesar
155mm Mk F3 (AMX-13)
155mm PLZ-45
155mm PzH 2000
175mm M107
Operator: North Korea
Number: ~400
Cost: Unknown
Country of origin: North Korea
Manufacturer: North Korea
Introduced: 1983
Category Long-range self-propelled artillery
Barrel/Tube Length: Unknown
Platform: Chinese Type 59 tank chassis
Engine: Model 12150L V12 liquid-cooled diesel (520 hp)
Road Speed (km/h): 24.9 mph (40 km/h)
Length: 36.1 ft (11 m)
Width: 10.5 ft (3.2 m)
Height: 9.8 ft (3+ m)
Weight: 40 US tons (36.3 metric tons)
Caliber: 170mm
Guidance: None
Rate of Fire: 2 rounds per five minutes
Loader Type:
Range: 24.9 – 37.3 miles (40 – 60 km)
Elevation: Unknown
Traverse: 0 degrees
Sights: Unknown
Accuracy: Unknown
Ammunition: High explosive (HE), frag, or chemical (12 rounds) – able to reach targets at 60 km with rocket assisted projectile
Notes: Upgrade of M1978 Koksan gun system. Design is based on Soviet coastal gun systems and the 2S7 self-propelled gun.
"M-1978 / M1989 (Koksan) 170mm self propelled (SP) gun," GlobalSecurity.org, March 29, 2016.
Christopher F. Foss, Jane's Tanks and Combat Vehicles Recognition Guide, (New York: Harper Collins Publishers, 2000) page 20.
"M1978 (Koksan) Self-Propelled Gun (1975)," Military Factory, March 10, 2013.
"M1989 170-mm self-propelled gun," Military Today, accessed July 11, 2016.
Anthony H. Cordesman & Ashley Hess, The Evolving Military Balance in the Peninsula and Northeast Asia, Volume II Conventional Balance, Asymmetric Forces, and US Forces, (New York: Rowman & Littlefield, June 2013), page 77.


text:
Delhi 2015 Elections- A History Created!
in Event
After a lot of suspense and ifs and buts Delhi's election results are finally out. Not surprising for many the ball is in the court of Aam Aadmi Party which won only the magic number of seats to form the party but also the hearts of public of Delhi.
But the real catch of surprise is clean sweep victory by Aam Aadmi party, getting nearly ninety percent of the total votes and leaving the other major parties Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress dumbstruck. So what can be the reasons that made Aam Aadmi Party so popular among people who preferred it over the largest party – BJP?
Many election specialists who closely were covering the election updates for path one month felt that Amit Shah's move of making Kiran Bedi the prime ministerial candidate was pretty wrong decision that made the party to witness such a shameful failure. While there are still many who feel that one should give Arvind Kejriwal, the whole and soul of AAP a fair chance to prove his capacity. Whatever be the reasons Delhi Election results have written a new history in the election arena with AAP getting clean sweep of 67 seats, BJP with 3 seats and Congress zero seats.
As for as Congress is concerned this would have been the first time since the formation of Congress that did not get any seat in assembly elections. What can be the reasons that showed gloomy days for these two major parties and how come AAP emerged as all time favourite is still a big question that all the parties wonder ponder?
Arwind Kejriwal is the person who connects directly with the public. He uses social media platform to share his views to the people of Delhi. With Facebook and Twitter, he communicated to the people, expressed his views, solved the queries of the people and showcased the promises and actions that will be taken once he becomes the Chief Minister of Delhi.
Such direct contact with the public earned him accolades and made him a public figure. People started viewing Arwind Kejriwal as a sole figure that can resolve their issues, solve their water and electricity problems and give them a fair standard of living. This enabled the party to grab more than ninety percent seats.
Also everyone in Delhi is pretty sure that Arwind Kejriwal is the person who has the capacity to eradicate corruption from its roots and who believes in service to the people. This attitude of the people towards AAP has enabled it to stand tall as the largest party in Delhi today.
Delhi people were fed up with VIP culture, corruption at all the levels, electricity and water issues and for that they certainly needed change and Arwind Kejriwal a simple down to earth figure was the option right in front of them so they without any hesitation or second thought pressed the button in front of broom, the election sign of Aam Aadmi Party.
Can BJP and Congress learn from their mistakes? Or can Arwind Kejriwal live up to his promises? These questions are certainly haunting every Delhi person's mind and time is the perfect answer to those as time will tell everything about the work of AAP and how the other parties will reframe their election strategies.
All in all Aam Aadmi Party has emerged as the shining star in the Delhi elections 2015 getting a clean sweep victory with 67 out of 70 seats. Hope that Mr. Arvind Kejriwal lives up to the expectations of Delhi People and performs to their betterment.
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