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Buzzkill: footnote to the Stanford antibody study
Credit: Kate Ter Haar/Flickr
Over the weekend, Buzzfeed News dropped a monumental bombshell, reporting on a whistleblower complaint filed with Stanford University about the infamous "Stanford study" - which signaled the start of the antibody testing movement in the United States. I previously wrote about that study here and here. I also explained why antibody testing isn't very useful.
The press coverage of the original result was distasteful from the start. The narrative pushed by the study's co-authors, hitherto respected scholars, was that the number of infections was "50 to 85 times higher" than the number of reported cases, thus the risk of death from Covid-19 was drastically lower than previously estimated, "about on a par with the flu", said one of the co-authors at a press conference. Some politicians and businesspeople immediately seized upon this finding to advance their "herd immunity" program, which is a nice way of saying let the old but not rich folks die.
Even beyond the questionable science of the study, the narrative was misguided. Little do people realize that only 50 people out of over 3,000 tested positive for antibodies in that experiment. Instead of reporting that only 1 to 3 percent of the participants tested positive for the antibodies, the journalists went with the researchers' framing of the number as being 50 to 85 times higher than reported cases. This is a common trick. It's like saying the 20% discount offer resulted in a 50-percent increase in sales, when sales went up from 4 to 6 while 100 sales are needed to break even on the cost of the offer. The result is statistically significant but practically meaningless.
Using this same tactic, one can say that the level of prevalence found in the Stanford study is at least 20 times below what is required to achieve so-called herd immunity. By the way, no scientist is willing to go on air to confirm that having these antibodies confers meaningful "immunity," which is saying a lot.
The argument for lowering the mortality rate is also overly simplistic. Epidemiologists have long distinguished between case mortality rates and infection mortality rates, with the understanding that cases are an undercount of infections. This study is an attempt to estimate the latter. Further, a higher proportion of infected has a couple of implications. First, the transmission rate is much higher, meaning that the reproduction number (the average number of people each infected person infects) must also be higher than previously believed, which ironically raises the bar for reaching herd immunity. Second, the gap between cases and infections reveals the failure of diagnostic testing, which suppresses both case counts and counts of deaths. Adjusting for cases but not for deaths clearly produces a mortality rate that is too low.
Furthermore, comparing the infection fatality rate of influenza to SARS-CoV-2 is apples to oranges. The infection of flu is dampened by the widespread use of the flu vaccine in the U.S. while we have no vaccine for coronavirus yet. This suggests that the base population upon which the fatality rate is applied is much higher for coronavirus so the same rate results in many more deaths.
The Buzzfeed investigation provides a lot of color to this antibody-testing movement. Here are the most important moments in the long report.
"I declined authorship on any manuscript... based on our testing" and "I ... end my involvement... without any ties, acknowledged or unacknowledged, to current, revised, or future contemplated preprints, publications or other public presentations of results" How two Stanford researchers disassociated themselves from the Stanford antibody study after performing validation studies of the test's accuracy.
Test kits come with claims of accuracy by their manufacturer. Accuracy is typically provided as sensitivity and specificity, measuring the test's ability to identify positives and negatives respectively. For the antibody test, given the low level of prevalence, the specificity has to be close to 100 percent, meaning all negatives must be correctly identified, for the test to have any utility. Otherwise, the high proportion of antibody-negative people in the population can generate more (false) positive results than the number of antibody-positive people who exist.
Vendors advertise test accuracy based on self-reported validation samples. Validation is hard - and for this reason, vendors can easily cheat to sell lemons. You can't validate the people who took your test because the point of taking your test is to determine who has antibodies. If you knew the answer, you wouldn't need to test them. So to validate an antibody test, you need to find blood samples that are unequivocably positive or negative. You have to purchase blood specimens from people who have them, or pay labs to conduct tests on your behalf on their specimens.
Or, you could take your blood samples, and apply a different test and see if the results match those from your own test.
The test kit used in the Stanford study has not yet been approved by the FDA so the need to validate the accuracy claims was even higher. The research team made at least two attempts to validate the test accuracy at Stanford-affiliated labs. Both groups later declined co-authorship of the study because they had reservations about the test results.
When the first preprint appeared, the specificity of the test was supported by a 30-specimen "independent" validation sample, plus manufacturer's data. The independent validation turned out to be the results from one of the labs that severed ties with the research project.
The murky disclosure surrounding the validation data
Many statisticians, including myself, raised concerns that the research outcome is highly sensitive to the assumption of the test's specificity. For validation, a sample size of 30 is way too small. I computed that a minimum of 300 - with all 300 testing negative - would be required to establish specificity of 99 percent. In the revised preprint, the researchers expediently found 3000 more negative samples to justify an assumption of 99.5% specificity.
The authors said they "conducted additional testing to assess the kit performance, and continued collecting information from assessments of test performance to incorporate into the analysis." They "gathered all available information on test performance characeristics, with a focus on test specificity". In an addendeum, after mentioning the sample of size 30 referenced in the first report, they disclosed receiving additional information from "multiple sources, including the manufacturer's original data, test performance assessments for regulatory documents, and independent evaluations."
While reading all these text, I was scratching my head to figure out whether they conducted additional validation testing at Stanford labs, or they contracted other labs to perform validation testing, or they simply requested data from third parties who just happened to have them.
While they promised information on "provenance" of the data samples, one third of the 3,000 negative samples were simply described as "adults admitted to hospitals pre-COVID19." Which lab did the testing? When and where were these samples collected and for what purpose?
The ambient threat of confirmation bias
This search for samples creates a goal-seek situation for these researchers. They know what specificity is required to reach a scientifically acceptable conclusion. They have targets for how many samples are needed, and what the pooled accuracy rate has to be. We don't know how they conducted this search, and what measures were taken to prevent confirmation bias. If they had received data that took the accuracy rate below the required 99.5%, they could have continued searching for the next sample (or convinced each other that that sample was an outlier). I'm not saying they did this; the dangers affect anyone placed in this situation.
Well, well, well. There is a hint of impaired judgment. The researchers chose to publish their first preprint the day before receiving validation results from the second independent lab. By that time, the lab already expressed concern about false positives. The additional results came from re-testing the positives using ELISA, a "gold standard" test for antibodies. They showed that "a little over half" of those positives were confirmed. The just below half are false positives.
This validation sample showing low sensitivity was not included in the revised preprint while the other validation sample showing 100% specificity continued to feature. Both samples came from Stanford-affiliated labs that decided to decline authorship based on concerns about test accuracy. It's possible that the one lab did not authorize the use of their data. But this situation exactly illustrates the risk of "publication bias": whether the decision to exclude was made by the independent lab or the research team, the act of exclusion biased the statistical analysis.
Ironically, the Stanford team includes John Ioannidis, who has led an outcry against biased scientific findings.
"If you are willing to do a 5,000 test in New York, just tell me the cost and I will raise the money immediately." Jetblue CEO to Stanford researcher who was recruited to validate the test kit.
Jetblue's founder and CEO, David Neeleman, holds strong views on re-opening the economy based on the theory that a large number of people have been infected and are thus immune. It turned out he was a funder of the Stanford study.
The various co-authors of the study told Buzzfeed that they either had no knowledge of where the funding came from, or that there could have been multiple funders with different points of view (while maintaining they don't know who the funders are), or that their research could simply not be influenced by funding.
Neeleman now said that he was not shown results prior to the publication but in an op-ed 10 days before the publication, he wrote that the Stanford team "believe that the actual number of cases is very likely off by an order of magnitude of 10, or maybe even many times more". A few days before publication, he appeared on a Fox News show pitching a re-opening strategy, alongside with two of the researchers, who presumably still didn't know who funded the study.
One of the researchers suggested to Neeleman that he should "write a note [to the independent researcher] telling her you'll support her lab if she validates this kit." That's how the proposal for a large-scale New York test came into being. This researcher presumably didn't know Neeleman funded their study.
I noticed another discrepancy when it comes to funding sources: in the preprints, the researchers disclosed they "purchased" test kits from Premier Biotech but in one of the emails cited by Buzzfeed, the second researcher tasked with validating the test kit wrote "we are concerned about the specificity of the Premier Biotech devices that were donated for your study." The researcher could have been confused but if he was right, the "conflict of interest" section of the preprint should be corrected.
"If they had just done the New York study first, there wouldn't be so much scrutiny." Jetblue CEO
Neeleman elaborated: "Unfortunately PR [public relations] impact and the ability to raise large amounts of money quickly will not be the same if you announce 1% of Santa Clara County tested positive for the antibodies versus 30% of New Yorkers which would be huge news." This email was dated before the publication of the first preprint, and way before New York State started antibody testing. Somehow, Neeleman knew (a) that the Santa Clara study would show about 1 percent positive even though the research team claimed he and no others were informed of results beforehand; and (b) that the New York proportion would be 15 times higher than reported (in the right ballpark).
Neeleman has been proven correct, as the New York result made quite a splash. As readers know, I have been complaining for weeks that New York Governor Cuomo - who is an avowed believer in science - has been promoting day after day after day results from an antibody testing program in his press briefings, while one quickly discovers that his Powerpoint slides are the sole source of data about this study.
Given what we now know about the Stanford study, I call once more for transparency. The State Department of Health, which is said to have conducted the antibody testing program, needs to come forward with experts, preprints and data. The citizens are entitled to know: who funded the study? What are the sensitivity and specificity claimed by the test designer? How did they validate their test kit? What analysis was done? What adjustments were made? They need to answer the same questions the Stanford team did.
The Times Union Albany reporters dared to ask questions, and everywhere they went, Department of Health officials claimed no knowledge of anything about this state-run program. I hope the New York Times is on this case.
What NY State did is much worse than the Stanford team. At least the Stanford researchers put information out there and responded to comments. New York has been feeding countless headlines, proclaiming 20 percent prevalence in NYC, when it has offered zero support for this.
05/19/2020 in Covid-19, Current Affairs, Data, Ethics, False negative, False positive, Health, Medicine, Politics, Science, Tests, Variability, Web/Tech | Permalink
The Diamond Princess puts an upper limit on the number of cases that aren't found given that there were about 700 cases for 3700 passengers. The South Koreans did a massive amount of testing for their initial outbreak and found less than one asymptotic case per symptomatic. I think other figures are about 30% asymptomatic.
Posted by: Ken | 05/31/2020 at 07:28 PM


Johnson noted that buyers and sellers, banks and governments all care deeply about what money is used for. Money's use carries associations of value, which in turn helps establish whether a currency, a payment form, and a social model for transactions are legitimate. "It's hard to bring any of them on board if the money is associated with behaviors consumers are troubled by," Johnson said at emTech.
"Bitcoin's integrity is guaranteed by the rules of math and the laws of physics," Pair says. Such rhetoric is common in the world of digital currency, where reverence for Bitcoin has succeeded gold for many hard-money enthusiasts.They've entered into an uneasy and unusual alliance with anarcho-technologists who distrust government authority and believe in the power of distributed networks and open-source software.
With governments' financial and credit troubles in turn causing major problems for their currencies, global investors are looking for something firmer than the promise of a central bank. In September, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss—Facebook bridesmaids turned Bitcoin entrepreneurs— touted the digital currencyas a solution to the world's troubled currency markets. "It's Gold 2.0," Tyler Winklevoss said.
New Bitcoins are added only by being "mined," in the high-tech equivalent of a land rush. Computers on the Bitcoin network race to solve increasingly complicated mathematical problems. The first to do so has its solution verified by the other nodes on the network. Once verified, the Bitcoin can be traded using Bitcoin's wallet software.
In Pair's words, Bitcoin "commoditized the process of securing the network." All the work done by financial centers and payment systems to detect fraud or counterfeit for traditional currency and credit markets is done all along the network according to the peer-to-peer protocols for Bitcoin. And the costs of that work are likewise distributed throughout the system, paid for through Bitcoin mining. This is what lets Bitcoins be traded and exchanged without huge fees.
And Bitcoin can still affect the world economy even if it does not become a currency that everyone uses or understands. "If Bitcoin becomes widespread, respected, and legitimate, that pressures everyone—all the central banks and banking companies—to bring down those costs in order to stay competitive," Johnson says. "Or everyone could just use Bitcoin," adds Pair.


Château Le Crock is owned by the Cuvelier family of Château Léoville-Poyferré in St Julien. Generally this is big, black and extracted St Estèphe, a strong and full wine that needs time in bottle to show its best. 2009 is terrific and 2010 equally promising, if totally different in style.
Vineyard/Terroir: 30 hectares planted with 60% Cabernet Sauvignon, 27% Merlot, 13% Cabernet Franc.
Winemaking/Elévage: Temperature controlled fermentation and maceration in stainless steel and concrete tanks followed by 18-20 months in oak, a third new each year.


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Just before | Ukraine's latest developments-Russia War … New York Times announces: Russia has hit important headquarters!
hurriyet.com.tr/ Foreign News
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Day 25 of the Russian-Ukrainian War … While critical news from the region continues, the New York Times has killed more than 40 Ukrainian soldiers in a Russian attack at a naval base in Mykolaiv. Announced that. A flash call came from Zelensky when Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irina Bereschuk announced the number of Russian prisoners of war they had. This is the latest trend in the Russian-Ukraine War.
The war, which began on the morning of February 24, at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin, continues at full speed. Russia, which has recently been accused of targeting civilians, has now struck the headquarters of the Ukrainian Marine Infantry Brigade. The New York Times reported that the attack killed 40 Ukrainian soldiers. Deputy Mayor Mariupol's Pyotr Andryuschenko accused Russian troops of deporting 4,000 to 4,500 Mariupol residents across the border to Taganrog without a passport. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has declared that peace talks with Russia are needed, even if they are "not easy and fun".
This is the development of this area, every minute …
08.22 Ukrainian President Zelensky said the siege of Russia's port city Mariupol was "a terrorist act remembered for centuries."
Zelensky added that peace talks with Russia were needed.
NYT announces: 40 soldiers die!
07.57 The New York Times (NYT), citing senior Ukrainian military officials, announced that more than 40 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in a Russian attack on a naval base in Mykolaiv.
The Iskander missile is a short-range ballistic missile system made in Russia. Alexander has a variety of conventional warheads, including various cluster munitions, hot vaporization, highly explosive fragmented warheads, bunker piercing, and electromagnetic pulses for anti-radar missions.
Officials told the NYT that the headquarters of the 36th Ukrainian Naval Infantry Brigade may have been attacked by long-range weapons such as the Iskander-M ballistic missile.
07.41 Ukrainian officials said 71 children had been evacuated from the embarrassed orphanage in the city of Smy.
How many war posters are there in Ukraine?
06.57 Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, has announced that there are 562 Russian prisoners of war in Kyiv.
"Russia has forced thousands of civilians"
05.56 Deputy Mayor Mariupol's Pyotr Andryuschenko accused Russian troops of deporting 4,000 to 4,500 Mariupol residents across the border to Taganrog without a passport.
Andryuschenko told The New York Times that thousands of people had evacuated to downtown sports facilities and most insiders thought they were being taken to Russia.
05.15 Artem Datsishin, one of the world-famous Ukrainian ballet dancers who was seriously injured in Russia's attack on Ukraine, died in the hospital where he was treated.
03.45 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Russian mothers and fathers to mention the success of Ukrainian troops in Russia's attack on Ukraine and the deaths of more than 14,000 Russian soldiers in previous attacks. Pointing out negotiations with Russia, "Ukraine has always sought a peaceful solution. Now we are more interested in peace. We are Ukrainians and human life is us. Because it's precious to us. "
23.45 The city of Kharkiv in Ukraine was bombarded by Russia tonight as well. A statement from Kharkov Governorate stated that a 9-year-old girl had died following the first decision, and many teams of Ukrainian emergency services were sent to the scene after the explosion.
22.55 "The Kyiv nationalist government plans to present attacks on US and Western diplomatic facilities as'targeted attacks by Russian troops'," said Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry. rice field.
22.20 The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has announced that as of today, the loss of lives due to the Russian attack in Ukraine has increased to 847. The total number of casualties after the Russian army attacked civilian settlements was 1,399, and most of the losses were due to the use of heavy artillery and multi-barreled rocket systems and explosive weapons by the Russian army. Was done.
21.40 Ukrainian officials have announced that 228 people have been killed and 912 have been injured since February 24, when the Russian occupation began in the capital Kyiv.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


The abrupt cessation of a substance dependence, creates a rupture in the organism; a psychological and physical one.
Cold Turkey: The unpleasant state that drug addicts experience when they suddenly stop taking a drug; a way of treating drug addicts that makes them experience this state. // I quit smoking cold turkey.
Addiction reveals with the worst way its mask and brings you face to face with your innermost self. It provokes you to stand in front of the cli and face the consequences. The unexpected depth scares you. The fall is inevitable. The pain is relentless. It is an arduous street, however, it is the shortest one in order to achieve quickly the detoxi cation. The choice lies in your hands. The ght you have to give is purely personal. It is the loss in the loneliness of the system, in the labyrinth of the loneliness. Separation is the only way towards your real freedom, towards the relief of your psyche. If you don't fall, you cannot re-stand on your feet. If you don't deny the habit, you cannot overcome it. If you don't leave, you cannot escape. This path is dangerous. The sense of lack and absence are leading elements. Withdrawal from reality is totally present. Sadness, nostalgia and the sense of something paradox happening, follow. The temptation of return, comes back in your mind in a repetitive, annoying mode. It can drive you crazy. The memory of the substance that used to be part of your everyday life causes tremendous tremblings in your body. Only if you are courageous one, you can endure and overcome these symptoms, without succumbing in the mysterious and unpredictable abyss of the senses and dependence. Only if you are le alone and experience the void, you can regain the control of your life. Only if you overcome your own limits and get lost in obscurity, you can emerge again in the light and breath; free.
Stefania Orfanidou was born in 1989. She lives and works in Athens, Greece, as an architect and a photographer. She graduated from Stereosis School of Photography in Thessaloniki. She has been published by various magazines and webzines, such as Kaltblut, Phroom, F-Stop, The Latent Image, 001-Zerozerouno. Currently she is being featured in the Athens Photo Festival 2017.


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Alna selectmen
Alna's Pentaleri, Woolwich's Holbrook differ on outlook for Holbrook's plowing performance this winter in Alna
SUSAN JOHNS
Alna First Selectman Ed Pentaleri told meeting-goers at the town office and over Zoom Nov. 2, he would like nothing more than to see Holbrook Excavating of Woolwich have a successful season plowing the roads this winter. "I'm sorry to say that nothing I've seen over the last several months leads me to believe that we're likely to see a performance any better than we saw last year. I may be surprised. I will be happy to be mistaken in my concerns. But honestly I wanted to let people know that I'm actually quite concerned that we might see a performance this year that ends up being even worse than ... last year. In fact, I'm concerned enough, that I've been working over the last several months to be as prepared as we can in case things really end up going badly."
The firm's owner, reached Sunday, said he didn't know why Pentaleri would say that.
In the meeting, Pentaleri recalled instances last winter of equipment or other issues impacting plowing or roads' pre-treatment; he recalled Alna having five accidents in one storm. And for this winter, year three of the three-year deal, he suggested people adjust their expectations and prepare for the plows to possibly not be out as early or as frequently in a storm "as they should be." If that happens, he hopes to have back up plow services "to help get the job done," but, due to their other work, those substitute services may not be able to respond until after the storm, he said.
The contract with Holbrook gives the board discretion to fill in with other contractors, he said.
Resident Honor Sage asked Pentaleri why he thought performance this winter could be worse. "I just haven't seen the indicators that I would expect to see of a commitment to really do better ...," he said. He also cited his "interactions" with the contractor. In the meeting and an email response to Wiscasset Newspaper's questions Nov. 6, he declined to elaborate on the basis for his concerns or on points Holbrook Excavating owner Evan Holbrook raised in a phone interview Nov. 6.
Holbrook told Wiscasset Newspaper he has always tried to be cordial and has always been truthful with Alna officials. He said he didn't know why Pentaleri would make the Nov. 2 statements. Holbrook said that does not foster a good relationship and it makes him less desire to move forward with the town. Asked if he meant future contracts or the last year of this one, he said he "would consider" withdrawing from this one.
Holbrook said the truck that had the problem in year two was fixed, his fleet is one truck greater than in year one, his team of drivers is one greater this year, plus he is back driving after rotator cuff surgery.
Besides Pentaleri's new statements, Holbrook said he has had other surprises from Alna, including, he said, not being told in advance a payment would be smaller due to a time the town had the road commissioner do some work. That was one of the points Pentaleri had no new comment on.
Also Nov. 2, selectmen appointed Shelby Biddy to the Sheepscot Valley Regional School Unit board seat Kristina Verney resigned from. Pentaleri and Second Selectman Linda Kristan said voters will pick someone in March to fill the rest of Verney's term that ends in 2024.
And code enforcement officer and plumbing inspector Tom McKenzie has resigned effective Dec. 1. McKenzie explained he has a new full-time job that needs his full attention. The town has started seeking its next CEO and plumbing inspector to avoid a gap in coverage, Pentaleri said.


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Cancer charity continues its wider help for vulnerable
Cancer Support France, which provides support to English-speakers touched by cancer, is continuing the enhanced service it began during the Covid-19 lockdown: supporting anyone who is elderly, vulnerable, isolated or has any kind of health issue.
Cancer Support France has widened its activity so that anyone who is elderly, vulnerable, isolated or has any kind of health issue can make contact for emotional and practical support, given by telephone or email.
Details of the extended service
The extended service, undertaken by its trained Active Listeners, launched in March and the charity reports a steady stream of new contacts. Some are directly related to Covid-19, others from people affected by cancer and concerned about their access to treatment. President Pat Lockett says: "CSF will continue to support those who approach us, whether or not affected by cancer, as we head into the next phase of management of the Covid-19 emergency."
To contact CSF, tel: 0800 240 200 or email: helpline@cancersupportfrance.org.
Read more: long hospital stays: what is a personne de confiance?
The British Charitable Fund is here to help, too
The British Charitable Fund (BCF), which helps any Britons living in France who are suffering real financial hardship, says it has surprisingly not received a large number of applications for help based on the threat of the virus.
It has received three applications from people who lost their jobs because work came to an end during confinement and a fourth who needs support because a key festival he works on was cancelled. It has been very aware that its existing beneficiaries have suffered from an accentuation of their solitude because, whether in hospitals, care centres or at home, they have been unable to receive visits from friends or family.
The BCF's welfare team has been doing its best to keep in touch by telephone, though the charity says it is aware this is meagre compensation, especially when a person is hard of hearing. The British Charitable Fund is a 200-year-old charity which gives top-up, long or short-term discretionary monthly grants to help with outgoings such as rent, electricity, food and heating.
It will also provide an occasional grant for someone who needs help in a one-off situation, for example, they cannot pay for repairs to a boiler or a car, a training course to help get back into the job market, or the cost of repatriation. Every month it pays out about €25,000 to around 100 households to help them cope. To apply for help, call 01 47 59 07 69, email office@bcfparis.org or see britishcharitablefundparis.org.
Read more: Cancer Support France's fundraising and awareness event, Cycle for Life, has been postponed
Cancer Support France
finance / money
Coronavirus: Daily updates on the situation in France
How to get a weekend or out-of-hours doctor's appointment in France
Covid France and mental health: 4 platforms with support in English


The more inventory you have, the more costly it's going to be.
Typically, the cost of inventory is around 10% to 20% of the asset value per year. One major airline mentioned that their inventory costs, even after outsourcing everything is 20%.
If you have a million dollars of inventory on hand, and it sits unused for a year, you're spending $200,000 just to have that inventory available.
That's a lot of money, but it covers warehousing, rent or mortgages, tooling, shelf space, security, and so on.
Depending on where your warehouse is, maybe theft is also something you have to worry about.
You're spending time, effort and money--a lot of money--just to have that inventory on hand.
So, how can you not invest so much in inventory, but mitigate your risk of not having what you need when you need it?
Outsource your APU safety stock.
Outsourcing your APU needs to a trusted material partner is a great strategy!
If you're outsourcing responsibility, then inventory isn't carried on your books. Those millions of dollars in inventory can be reinvested into your operation, and you're not losing 20% on expenses.
Now, you don't have to deal with it… as long as you have a trusted material partner.
If you don't, inventory becomes critically important. But if you do, outsourcing is a really, really great strategy.
So, let's say you anticipate a need in the next six months for your APU.
What if that need never materializes? You'll be paying a lot of expenses to have one on hand that you don't need.
But if it does, your trusted material partner will have it ready when you need it (so you don't have to stock it for the next six months).
Put that burden on them. That's their specialty. That's what they do. Your primary responsibility is to get passengers safely and to have revenue-generating flights so your operation can be profitable.
When you're dealing with inventory, be strategic with it. It's a huge burden to just send out mass RFQs and start stocking left and right.
What are three tactics that support your inventory strategy?
Start with repairs. Do you have unserviceable APU assets you can repair? Start by reinvesting back into those assets.
Even better, with an MRO partner that will repair the asset and hold it (repair and hold). You're outsourcing the repair, but you're also outsourcing the financial risk and burden.
If you need something urgent, do an exchange… either flat rate or exchange plus cost.
As long as your APU isn't a BER or incredibly costly, you'll still save money on the exchange.
You can also consider a 30 or 60-day loan.
This is really useful if your trusted material partner wants the exact same unit--with the serial number--back.
Send in your unit for repair, get that unit back, and send the loaner back to your trusted material partner. Loans can be a great option to help you mitigate some of the total cost.
Start with these three things--repairs, exchanges, and loans--before you go on the market and buy an APU outright.
If none of that makes sense for your operation, then start processing at an outright price.
Whatever you do, be strategic in your stock purchases and think about the near-term and long-term impact inventory will have on your finances.


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This entry was posted in All Classes on 02/11/2018 by centralps.


W3 Total Cache is my favorite WordPress Caching Plugin. The only downside is that it has a ton of settings! Here are the common settings I use on most of my sites. From the WordPress admin area, go to the Performance tab.
Like most ìmodernî content management systems, WordPress relies on a MySQL Database to store content. In most cases, this database is rather small. Only text like Posts, Pages, Custom Post Types, and general settings are stored in this database. Images and other files are stored on the server by default. As sites grow, so does the content and, consequently, so does the number of queries to the database. MySQL is a very resilient system, but like most things, there is a point when it canít get any bigger, faster, or safer.
I'm at WordCamp Milwaukee for the weekend! Here are my notes from the Fondation Friday Dev 101.
I always forget how to setup a WordPress Network install (this is also called a WordPress multisite install). Here's my quickstart configuration check list.


This new body of work that comes directly from my Smithsonian SARF Fellowship.....I found my ancestors in the photographic archives while doing research in my fellowship. I immediately wanted to honor my ancestors......While in this SARF Fellowship, I also studied beadwork patterns in which their designs resemble the patterning from the carpets in the boarding school and delegation photos. My vision was to bring the ancestor photos, the beadwork colors, and the carpet designs together in a rush of digital glory. I was able to do this with the help of my digital assistant Ben Pharris.....Ben worked with me all summer of 2016 to bring my vision into reality and I am thrilled with the results.


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Poll Finds Widespread Support for Funding Health Care Services Through Planned Parenthood
August 19, 2015 — Many U.S. residents say they support federal funding for Planned Parenthood to provide women's health exams, screenings and contraceptive services, according to a Reuters /Ipsos poll, Reuters reports (Stephenson, Reuters , 8/19).
An antiabortion-rights group called the Center for Medical Progress recently released a series of misleading videos targeting Planned Parenthood that depict Planned Parenthood staff discussing fetal tissue donation. CMP secretly filmed the videos by meeting with Planned Parenthood staff while posing as buyers of fetal tissue.
Planned Parenthood has stated that the videos were heavily edited and that the filmed officials did not conduct any illegal activities. The organization said it does not profit from fetal tissue donations and only receives reimbursement for costs associated with such donations, which is legal. Meanwhile, supporters of Planned Parenthood said the videos are part of a decades-long campaign against the organization ( Women's Health Policy Report , 8/18).
Poll Findings
Overall, the poll found that U.S. residents support federal funding to health centers that provide women's health services, particularly funding for Planned Parenthood clinics that offer such services.
According to the poll, 73% of respondents said they support federal funding for unnamed groups to provide women's health exams, while 69% said they supported such funding for prenatal services and 59% said they did so for contraceptive services. However, a greater number of respondents said they supported federal funding for such services if they are provided by Planned Parenthood, the poll found. In total, 54% of respondents said they support federal funding for Planned Parenthood, while 26% said they oppose it.
Meanwhile, the poll found that 34% of respondents who saw CPM's videos said their opinion of Planned Parenthood remained unchanged. In addition, once the videos were described to respondents, 34% said the group should continue to receive federal funds.
According to Reuters , the poll's findings show that conservative lawmakers' efforts to defund the organization could be problematic in the 2016 presidential election, given U.S. residents' support for Planned Parenthood's provision of health care services ( Reuters , 8/19).
LA Times Columnist Says StemExpress' Decision To End Planned Parenthood Relationship 'Product of Pure Harassment'
In related news, Michael Hiltzik in an opinion piece for the Los Angeles Times ' "The Economy Hub" discusses how "[a]nyone concerned about scientific research, especially work aimed at developing cures for serious disease, should be appalled" that StemExpress felt it had to terminate its relationship with Planned Parenthood after facing backlash because of CPM's misleading video campaign.
According to Hiltzik, "StemExpress isn't terminating its relationship with Planned Parenthood because it thinks the relationship led it to do anything wrong" or because it thinks Planned Parenthood "has done anything wrong." He notes, "Absolutely no evidence has been presented that Planned Parenthood has broken the law regarding the acquisition or distribution of fetal tissues." Rather, StempExpress' decision was "the product of pure harassment by antiabortion activists, conniving with opportunistic politicians," Hiltzik writes, adding, "Patients of all kinds are the losers, as is the respectability of our political process."
He continues, "Among the most disturbing aspects of this affair is its effect on the legal and often necessary use of fetal tissue in biological research," which is "needed in work toward cures of muscular dystrophy, diabetes, degenerative eye disease and other conditions." He writes that the campaign against Planned Parenthood "threatens this whole line of inquiry, because any business or nonprofit that serves these researchers will have to ask whether it's worth trying to resist political pressure or the threat to employees' safety" (Hiltzik, "The Economy Hub," Los Angeles Times , 8/18).


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A Family Tradition Since 1960
Indepth Information and Live Local Updates for the Outer Banks
Darrell's Seafood Restaurant ManteoOur Story
Darrell's Outer Banks Restaurant History
Name: Darrell's Seafood Restaurant
Location: 521 US Highway 64 Manteo, Outer Banks NC
Email: darrellsseafood@aol.com
From a modest beginning in 1960, Darrell's Seafood Restaurant has emerged as one of the more popular facilities with a growing need and dependable source of palate-pleasers. Darrell and Dora Daniels founded the business as Polar Bear Drive-In, an accessible place for a growing and consuming satisfied public. Among favorites was the home-made barbecue.
In 1972 son Allen and wife Lorna joined the business. With an expanded facility and menu, popularity grew steadily with both Outer Banks locals and tourists.
Through several renovations and facility upgrades, Darrell's today is a popular spot on heavily-traveled Hwy. 64 in Manteo, a mere half mile from the modern multi-lane bridge spanning the Croatan Sound. It is along the route to The Lost Colony, Elizabethan Gardens, Roanoke Island Festival Park, the North Carolina Aquarium and Downtown Manteo Waterfront Shopping district.
Allen and Lorna, joined by son Tanner, play a big role in operating this successful business, the second oldest restaurant on the Outer Banks.
Enjoy your stay on the Outer Banks and please come again.
Thank you from everyone at Darrell's Seafood Restaurant!
521 Hwy 64/264
7 a.m.-8:30 p.m.
DARRELL'S TAKEOUT
521 Hwy 64/264 | Manteo, NC 27954 | (252) 473-5366
© Darrell's Seafood Restaurant Manteo 2021. All rights reserved.


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Posts Tagged 'Edward Ribinskas photograhs'
Remembering the B&LE Erie Branch
I've never seen a train on the Erie branch of the former Besemer & Lake Erie, but some of you have. Edward Ribinskas sent along these photographs that he made over the years.
These images are from his "favorites over the years" series.
The top image of Norfolk & Western No. 611 was made on Aug. 11, 1984, when it was running a Buffalo, New York, to Albion, Pennsylvania, excursion.
It is shown crossing U.S. Route 20 in Girard, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 11, 1984.
Also shown are images made at Girar and Platea, Pennsylvania, on April 17, 1997, and at Girard on April 30, 1997.
Photographs by Edward Ribinskas
Tags:B&LE Erie Branch, B&LE locomotives, B&LE motive power, Bessemer & Lake Erie, Edward Ribinskas photograhs, N&W 611, N&W 611 excursions, Norfolk & Western 611, steam locomotives
What It Would Have Looked Like
Friday and Saturday were the type of days I will not venture out anymore except to the mailbox and to feed the birds.
Why I didn't really need to go trackside is because I am more than satisfied with the results I got in Perry in March 2013 in similar conditions. However, things were worse on Friday than they were in March 2013 when there was heavy lake effect snow but not the extreme cold.
Of course I wouldn't have been able to see Amtrak No. 48 anyway if I had gone out since it was cancelled. Stay warm everyone.
Article and Photographs by Edward Ribinskas
Tags:Amtrak's Lake Shore Limited, CSX, CSX Erie West Subdivision, Edward Ribinskas photograhs, Norfolk Southern, NS Lake Erie District, Perry Ohio, Railfanning in snow, railroads in snow, snow photography, trains and snow, trains in snow, winter photography, winter railfanning, winter railroading, winter storm, winter weather
Saturday Morning Surprise
I saw on HeritageUnits.com on Saturday morning that NS Train 265 (23K) was through North East, Pennsylvania, at 8:03a.m. with the NS Penn Central heritage unit leading. I looked at
the North East webcam to verify. About 9:20 a.m. I was set up at Riverside Drive in Painesville. About 9:30 I heard horns but they were coming from the west. I crossed the street and shot Train 316 with superb lighting.
I now had time to go to Perry and set up at Maple Street to get NS No. 1073. I got it at 10 a.m. Take note of the engineer's side number board.
Tags:Edward Ribinskas photograhs, Norfolk Southern, NS Lake Erie District, NS locomotives, NS motive power, NS Penn Central heritage locomotive, NS Pennsy heritage locomotive, Painesville Ohio, Perry Ohio
A Weekend That Exceeded Expectations: 5
We started our walk to Brush tunnel from Helmstetter's Curve at 10:45 a.m. on Sunday, arriving at the tunnel at 11:14 a.m.
Again, we encountered hikers and bikers on our trek to the tunnel, inside and outside and on the other side.
Before the train arrived we were joined by a rail photographer from Buffalo, New York.
Just after 12:15 p.m.the train popped into the tunnel. Fifty-five seconds later it popped out with the steamer's smoke pulled out with it as in the final photos. What a conclusion to a fantastic weekend.
Tags:Brush Tunnel, C&O 1309, Chesapeake & Ohio No. 1309, Edward Ribinskas photograhs, Steam excursion trains, steam excursions, steam locomotives, Western Maryland Scenic Railroad
A Weekend That Exceeded Expectations: Part 4
After photographing Amtrak's eastbound Capitol Limited and the Western Maryland Scenic Railroad's Pumpkin Train at the downtown Cumberland stations on Sunday morning, we headed for the spot in the Narrows to await the Pumpkin Train.
With a 10 a.m. departure from the Cumberland station it appeared at the Narrows in just under four minutes.
We then caught the train at Helmstetter's Curve at 10:20 a.m. The train passengers unloaded for kids to pick up their pumpkins. When finished everybody re-boarded for a 10:41 a.m. departure to return to Cumberland.
A few minutes later we started our mile walk on the bike path to Brush Tunnel. As we started, we encountered several pedaling track cars that had started their journey at Frostburg. The Tracks and Yaks program gives patrons the opportunity to pedal downhill from Frostburg to Cumberland.
I will conclude this series on Friday at Brush Tunnel.
Tags:Cumberland Maryland, Edward Ribinskas photograhs, Tourist trains, Western Maryland Scenic Railroad
I found that our weekend in Cumberland, Maryland, chasing Chesapeake & Ohio 2-6-6-2 on the Western Maryland Scenic Railroad would prove to have a flurry of passenger train activity within walking distance of our hotel.
On the afternoon of Oct. 22, a Saturday, the passenger train with the 1309 returned to the Western Maryland passenger station just before 4:30 p.m.
The first five photos with this post, including the top image, were made at the Cumberland WM station.
As I was photographing the watering of the tender (seen below), a voice to my left asked if I was getting good photos.
The voice was again very familiar. It belonged to Akron Railroad Club member Dennis Sautters, of North Canton, who had just arrived in town. He told me he would be riding behind the 1309 on Sunday in dome car Stampede Pass.
Dennis also said he had just come from riding the Potomac Eagle. Before that he had been at Cass Scenic Railroad Park in West Virginia
On Sunday morning the Amtrak website showed that the eastbound Capitol Limited was running on time.
We were already checked out of the hotel and drove to the Amtrak station, located a short distance from the hotel, on the ex-Baltimore & Ohio mainline.
No. 30 arrived at 9:19 a.m. I had no idea that I would be happily surprised when I saw the "bloody nose" on the point.
It was my first time seeing P42DC Phase 1 heritage unit No. 161, which is the replacement for the 156 Phase I heritage unit.
While we were here we heard the horns of the Pumpkin Train arriving at the Western Maryland station across town.
We had plenty of time to see it before its departure at 9:30 a.m.
Tags:Amtrak, Amtrak's Capitol Limited, C&O 1309, Chesapeake & Ohio No. 1309, Edward Ribinskas photograhs, Steam excursion trains, steam excursions, steam locomotives, Western Maryland Scenic Railroad
I continue with my chasing Chesapeake & Ohio 2-6-6-2 No. 1309 on the Western Maryland Scenic Railroad adventure of Oct. 22.
After making photographs at Helmstetter's Curve, we headed for Woodcock Hollow. This location is also on a horseshoe curve.
With the railroad on an uphill climb, the 1309's stack talk was heard for several minutes before its arrival as seen in the top image.
The next three images show the train after its arrival in Frostburg, Maryland.
In the first photo below you can see Akron Railroad Club member Dave Shepherd on the right.
Photos three and four show my former brother-in-law and his son Own enjoying the steamer.
The plan was to have a nice leisurely lunch in LaVale. We did at the Ruby Tuesday restaurant. After lunch we drove back to Helmstetter's Curve to see the departure of the 2 p.m. Pumpkin Train as shown in photo five.
The photo at Helmstetter's Curve is the return departure of at 2:45 p.m.
We then walked the bike path the quarter-mile to West Helmstetter's to await the return of the steam train.
During our relaxing wait we saw a continuous passing of bikers, joggers, hikers, mothers with children and strollers, and also railfan heading to Brush Tunnel.
Photos six through nine are the excursion shortly before 4 p.m. We then started back to the car at Helmstetter's.
Tags:C&O 1309, Chesapeake & Ohio No. 1309, Edward Ribinskas photograhs, Steam excursion trains, steam excursions, steam locomotives, Western Maryland Scenic Railroad
A few weeks ago my former brother-in-law Karl and his son, my nephew Owen, became available for a railfan adventure the weekend of Oct. 22-23.
Our destination would be Cumberland, Maryland, to see the Chesapeake & Ohio 2-6-6-2 No. 1309 on the Western Maryland Scenic Railroad.
We departed Geneva at 6:45 a.m. on Saturday.
Our destination was Helmstetter's Curve, which we hoped to reach in time to photograph the arrival of the first Pumpkin Patch train of the day that would have departed Cumberland at 10 a.m. We arrived at Helmstetter's at 10:15 a.m. and set up at the cemetery overlook.
A few minutes later one other car pulled up next to ours. From a distance as they got out of their car I noticed they looked very familiar.
To my surprise they were Akron Railroad Club members Don Woods and Dave Shepherd. After exchanging greetings, we heard horns. The photograph above is the arrival of the Pumpkin Patch train.
After getting our photos, I suggested to Karl that we head to Ridgeley, West Virginia. My thinking was that the 1309 would have to be there to wait for the return of the Pumpkin train.
I was correct and the next three images were made at Ridgeley.
We then drove to a spot in the Narrows. The steam train would be about a half hour behind its scheduled 11:30 a.m. departure from Ridgeley. It would depart the Cumberland station about noon.
The next photo is at the Narrows at about 12:08 p.m. followed by photos made at Helmstetter's Curve at 12:25 p.m. Part 2 of the series will continue to Frostburg.
Western Pacific Visitor in Northeast Ohio
Early on Wednesday I saw that Union Pacific No. 1983, the Western Pacific heritage unit, was trailing on 14M, which operates from Conway Yard near Pittsburgh to Buffalo, New York.
Word was that it would lead the next day on 15M, a Buffalo-Conway train.
At 11 a.m. on Thursday I confirmed it had passed the North East, Pennsylvania, webcam at 10:51 a.m.
I left the house at 11:15 a.m. for Ashtabula. Just before noon I crossed State Road east of the Ashtabula River trestle.
A clear signal was showing for an eastbound, which I assumed would be 28B (formerly 206). I figured to head for Conneaut.
I scouted the south side of the yard and saw no activity. Based on that, my guess was that 15M would be in the siding east of Woodworth Road and the Conneaut Creek trestle to wait for 28B to pass.
I crossed the tracks east of the yard and my guess was confirmed as fact. I drove down Main Street to cross the former Bessemer & Lake Erie and, sure enough, there was a photo line for the Conneaut Creek trestle photo angle.
I went to the east side of the trestle on Woodworth Road where another group was waiting. Shortly before 12:30 p.m. I heard the 28B and it soon arrived crossing the trestle as in photo 1.
As soon as it passed the switch rolled over and the long-awaited show was ready to begin. Photo 2 at 12:42 p.m. shows UP 1983 coming out of the siding at Woodworth Road.
Photo 3 shows the crew change just east of the yard at Chestnut Street. Photos 5 and 6 are the train crossing the Youngstown line diamond at 1:36 p.m.
Photo 7 is the backup move to the Youngstown line at 2 p.m. The remaining photos are 15M passing underneath Interstate 90 and passing through Carson yard just after 3 p.m.
Several fans continued the chase, but I was more than satisfied with my results.
Tags:Ashtabula Ohio, Conneaut Creek trestle, Conneaut Ohio, Edward Ribinskas photograhs, Norfolk Southern, NS Lake Erie District, NS motive power, Union Pacific 1983, Union Pacific heritage units, UP Western Pacific heritage unit, Western Pacific heritage locomotive
CP 8757 at Perry
On Thursday I saw on HeritageUnits.com that Canadian Pacific No. 8757, the Every Child Matters unit, was on CSX intermodal train I165. After it was reported at North East, Pennsylvania, I went out to Main Street in Perry about an hour later. It showed a little after 4:30 p.m..
Photograph by Edward Ribinskas
Tags:Canadian Pacific 8757, Canadian Pacific motive power, CP Every Child Matters unit, CSX Erie West Subdivision, Edward Ribinskas photograhs, Perry Ohio


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INCIDENTALOMA with ARNOL CHIARI TYPE1 in MRI. MASS?
Hi doctor, so I just got my mri test results they said no findings to do with my symptoms . They did mention that I had a clean mri besides an incendtaloma which I asked my doctor does that mean I have a mass he said no.. Can you verify ? I also have ready that on my sheet they gave me for my review on it says after the Mri it's a Arnold Chiari Type 1. Does that mean it's a tumor ? They referred me to a neurologist what is an incendentaloma ? If my mri was normal but with a incident finding that was an incidentaloma in my cerebellum what does that mean how can I have a normal mri with a finding ? Is it a tumor?!! They said no mass ... But if there wasn't a mass how could they tell? What is a Arnold Chiari am I at risk of dying sooner than a normal life span ? I'm confused as how I can have a clean MRI but yet they said there was an incendentaloma yet my primary care doctor says that it is not a mass . What does that mean? They said no tumor but yet an incendtaloma means tumor correct ? Once again they said no mass or brain tumor .. I'm really confused by this all. Also I am 20 years old patientold and with an Arnold chiari type 1 does this mean it's fatal?
Incidentalomas are as the name suggests an extremely incidental benign swelling, which is present in the brain, without causing any symptoms. It could be a result of past infections, or because of other vascular problems.
This is nothing related to cancer and you should not worry.
The Arnold-Chiari malformation again is a vasculature disorder, and I request you to kindly upload the MRI reports for better correlation. I can assure you, it is not fatal.
Should I go to emergency room for my ASTHMA?


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Entertainment February 26, 2014
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Zennie62 News February 17, 2013
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John Boehner's games during the "Fiscal Cliff" negotiations bring up thoughts of one Lisbeth Lyons. Ms. Lyons gained fame in late 2010 for being so close to GOP Speaker Of The House John Boehner that…
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Much to the surprise of her family, 40-year-old Michelle Rounds hooked up with, then got engaged to 48-year-old Rosie O'Donnell. The talk show host said that she was happy and also that no wedding date…
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First boxing session of 2019 and it was a killer. The place was packed with new members but after that session im not sure how many will be back.
I was meant to start lifting last week but fell ill with Laryngitis on new years eve of all days. I will be doing my first weight lifting session tomorrow im sure thats going to be a shock to the system.
I had an almost continuous hour of sparring last night. That was killer, the cardio for fighting is something else. It's incredibility humbling.
No boxing tonight managed to have a slight incident which has led to me cutting nearly the full length of my index finger on some glass. All bandaged up now but cant bend my finger. On a positive it gives me a reason to squat tomorrow and then hopefully my finger will heal up enough to box at the end of the week or start again next Monday.
lol it certainly is humbling especially when you have to keep fighting and you have nothing left but theres still 3 more rounds to go.
You weren't kidding when you said this journal was injury riddled lol.
Hope it gets better soon mate.
Missed this bit when I was looking on my phone. Fingers crossed it heals up quick (pun intended).
Cheers mate its healing quite well I managed to get to the boxing on Wednesday but it did split again slightly.
I really need to start putting a bit more effort in to my journal on all forums instead of just one random sporadic entry each week, and I really do need to get back to lifting weights again iv actually started to miss it so will be doing a rolling upper / lower split Tue/Thur/Sat.
Not my usual routine as I was in the gym for this one but it is my first lifting session of 2019 so just shaking off any rust. Military press felt hard its been so long since I last done this exercise.
Back in to the garage tomorrow for a lower session.
Crack on bud. Finger back to normal?
Lol there will be another entry tonight just you wait and see.
The fingers good almost fully healed it took a little longer than it should of because it kept splitting at work.
Tonight was the first night of sparring and it was a bit of an eye opener lol.
I was in the ring against a young lad 19 who is looking to turn pro, I would definitely say he took it easy on me but would let me know when my guard was down with a quick punch to the face.
It was a good learning session and looking forward to getting better at it.
Another boxing session tonight im starting to notice my fitness going up but there is still a long way to go yet.
I done a gentle squat session in the garage yesterday nothing special just enough to get the wheels moving and shake off any rust.
Tomorrow I will be back in the garage and will start logging them down again.
Solid work bud, you enjoying the fitness boxing bringing?
Cheers mate, im definitely enjoying it and enjoying feeling fitter but I will always come back to the weights and especially the last week or two that lifting bug has started to come back.
Another killer boxing session tonight, im feeling fitter but the instructor always manages to make it brutal.
Chest feels a little tight this morning but no doms which im glad about. I really want to work on getting my strength back now.
Not to bad a session split squats are a bit awkward balance needs some work but will add weight to them eventually.