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What does the summit between Barack Obama and Gulf leaders mean? 15, May 2015
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Iran, The Gulf, Yemen.
Tags: Gulf States, Iran, Iran agreement, US-Gulf relationship
The following article was published by The Daily Telegraph on 14th May and can be found here.
Anger at America
The US's refusal to stand by the ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in the face of Arab Spring protests was taken badly in the Gulf. If America can break one multi-decade relationship, the Gulf states fear, perhaps America would, if protests erupted, break their own long relationship.
President Barack Obama's 'pivot to Asia' rhetoric amplified and drove home these concerns; here was proof of the US's focus shifting away. And theObama-led decision to engage with Iran has been greeted with a mixture of scorn and horror as the sum of all their fears – a so-called 'Grand Bargain' with Iran – begins, for some, to materialise.
Indeed for years the Gulf states, like a jealous partner fearful of being spurned for another, has fretted that America might seek to come to a widespread accommodation with Iran at their expense. The logic runs that in return for a complete halt to Iran's questionable nuclear programme, America would somehow defer to Iran's interests in the Gulf region at the expense of its Sunni Gulf allies. An extra advantage and motivating factor of this ruse would be that Israel's security would be bolstered without a theoretical Iranian nuclear threat, and thus the US could disengage from the region.
While such a series of events has a certain logic to it, the reality is somewhat different.
Explicitly implicit guarantees
The fact is that the US will be the prime security guarantor for the region for the foreseeable future – decades at least.
The US has constructed for itself or otherwise has the run of a litany of huge and important military bases around the Gulf region that will remain central to US power projection throughout the wider Middle East region.
Though the US may no longer be hooked on Gulf oil as it once was, its own supplies of unconventional hydrocarbons coming increasingly on-line in recent years, the Gulf region remains the linchpin of world hydrocarbon production and as such is of central and critical importance to the world's economy.
As the state with the largest open economy in the world, America's interest in securing a broad peace in this region is unshakable and America's self-image as the world's indispensable nation also behoves it to quite explicitly provide for the region's stability.
Indeed, this is another curious aspect of this whole issue. Several Gulf leaders have gone to America to lobby Mr Obama for a greater US role in the region. They would ideally like explicit, formalised US guarantees of protection for their states.
Such explicit guarantees are entirely off the table, but, whether through existing arrangements or the region's pivotal importance to the world's economy, America remains – no matter Mr Obama's preferences – deeply intertwined in the region. It is the same with the UK.
For example, whatever bilateral defensive or security agreements are or are not signed and sealed with Qatar are irrelevant. If something catastrophic happens in the Gulf state, Britain is obliged to send the cavalry if we are to keep the lights on. Qatar's liquefied natural gas, arriving multiple times per week in the UK via tanker, is crucial in the UK's energy mix.
Moreover, America has sold tens of billions of dollars' worth of arms to the Gulf states in recent years. This kind of investment is far from a one-time deal: you do not just fly over an F-16, C-130, or Apache helicopter, park it at the airbase and wave goodbye: the necessities of through-life maintenance, upgrades, supplying, and training for such equipment spans decades and is yet another facet of almost inseparable US-Gulf interaction.
This is not to deny some level of US lowering its focus on the Gulf. But after leading two wars in three decades in the Gulf, the latter of which cost trillions of dollars, thousands of lives, and is widely seen as a failure, a US drawdown is an obvious necessity.
But any domestic rhetoric exhorting the US to leave the region, a fiscally-led preference to drawdown resources, or even a presidential preference to disengage America where possible can all be trumped by the realities on the ground.
The status quo has, therefore, not really changed. America under Mr Obama has shifted its focus away from the Gulf, but remains deeply entangled in the region.
There is an element of the Saudi-led bombing campaign in Yemen and other Gulf-led unilateral military strikes in recent months that appear to be not-so-subtly aimed at America. "If you won't secure the region, we will," seems to be the Gulf retort.
While regional states stepping up and taking more control in their own security affairs may be greeted hopefully in the White House, Mr Obama should be careful what he wishes for.
The Saudi-led seven week bombing campaign in Yemen meandered along being far more effective at causing humanitarian suffering than halting the Houthi advances, with a barely-believable 15.9 million people – 61 per cent of Yemenis – needing humanitarian assistance, according to the World Health Organisation. Indeed, the realisation is dawning that beyond bombing whatever targets it can find, Saudi Arabia really does not seem to have any kind of strategic plan.
The Gulf states are far from wreaking upon the wider Middle East the kind of peace that the US brought to Iraq when it upended and hollowed out the state leaving a brittle, weak state from which no functioning government emerged. But their efforts to forge a coherent, effective opposition to President Bashar al-Assad in Syria or to counter the Houthis in Yemen do not bode well.
Linguistic Composition of Iran 26, February 2013
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Iran.
Tags: Iran, Iran languages, Iran map, Languages in Iran
I love a nice map. The only thing better than a nice map is a particularly informative nice map, like this one on arab dialects or the one below.
Hat tip to @blakehounshell for pointing out this map.
On the notion of Israel attacking Iran 4, April 2012
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Iran, Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.
Tags: Iran, Iran nuclear sites, Israel, Israel attack Iran, Israel overflight, Meir Dagan, Mossad, Natanyahu, Netanyahu Iran
On 24 April an article in Jane's Defence Weekly based on intelligence sources claimed that Iran is only two years away from producing an atomic bomb. However, there is no need to start building a shelter yet as this article was written on 24 April 1984. Need it be stated that Iran – unlike Israel that obtained its first bomb sometime around the mid 1960s – did not obtain a nuclear weapon in 1986. This example is highlighted not to mock Jane's typically erudite analysis but to note that for decades it has been claimed that Iran has been near production of a nuclear weapon.
In the same year, US Senator Alan Cranston said Iran would have nuclear weapons by 1991; in 1992 Benjamin Netanyahu insisted that 1995-1997 was the right time-frame; Shimon Peres in 1992 plumbed for 1999; a 1992 House Republican Research Committee claimed that there was a '98 percent certainty that Iran already had all (or virtually all) of the components required for two or three operational nuclear weapons.'; a 1995 report quoting US and Israeli officials goes for the millennium as the date; in 1997 sources noted that the date had been pushed back to 2007-2009; in 2005 Israel's Defence Minister warned that a 'point of no return' would be passed within two years[1]; in 2007 Mossad went for 2009 as the magical date[2]; in 2009 it was predicted that Iran would be "nuclear-equipped" within one year; and Meir Dagan the former head of Mossad recently suggested that 2015 is the nearest viable date.[3]
The more recent predictions often bypass the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran stating 'with high confidence' that Iran had given up on its nuclear weapon programme in 2003; a notion confirmed in 2009 by a US Senate Foreign Relations Committee reports stating that 'there is no sign that Iran's leaders have ordered up a bomb.'[4]
While there is most certainly a significant amount of troubling contradictions and concerns regarding Iran's nuclear programme, many of which found a voice in a damning 2011 IEAE report on the topic, nevertheless, one might expect more scepticism to be shown on this topic that is typically found in the political discourse regarding leaders who have been consistently wrong for decades.
Indeed, there seems to be something of a drum-beat for war building. However, such considerations often ignore the basic concerns of whether Israel could effectively attack Iran; a key piece of information for the debate. If Israel cannot, or if the consequences of an attack would be so dire as to retard Israel's strategic position, then the questions concerning Iran's ability to build a nuclear weapon are rendered moot.
While Israel's gamut of ICBMs launched either from Israel or their Dolphin Class submarines could be useful to destroy Iran's anti-aircraft capability, without being armed with tactical nuclear warheads, they are unlikely to be able to degrade significantly hardened targets.
Insertion of special force teams is unlikely given the risks involved with deploying them in sufficient number, the fact that they could only carry what they land with, and the fact that many of the nuclear facilities in Iran lie far inland. The only plausible way to attack Iran's facilities, therefore, is through air strikes.
Tactically
Attacking Iran's nuclear facilities would be no 'surgical strike' such as Israel conducted in 1991 on the Osirak facility in Iraq, or more recently against secret Syrian facilities in 2007. As Israeli threats have increased, Iran has reacted accordingly and dispersed and hardened its facilities. Today there are at least seventeen known Nuclear facilities, perhaps twelve of which 'would have to be struck to seriously damage Iran's nuclear program….some of which is buried deep underground…the new plant at Fordow, for example, is believed to be buried 260 feet under granite.'[5]
There are real concerns as to whether Israel has the weapons to seriously damage such facilities. In 2009 America sold Israel 55 GBU-28 bunker-busting bombs weighing over two thousand two hundred kilograms.[6] Since, however, America has designed a far larger Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP), weighing in at nearly fourteen thousand kilograms, which can only be delivered by the B-2 stealth aircraft which Israel does not possess.[7] Moreover, US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta does not even think that these MOP weapons will be sufficient to guarantee the destruction of certain Iranian sites, namely the Fordow enrichment plant.
Whatever the ordinance, delivering the bombs would be difficult. Over one hundred aircraft would be needed to attack the multiple targets. Avoiding Iranian air defences, while not state-of-the-art and even if many could be destroyed in advance, would still be a concern and would likely take up yet more fuel. This is a key concern given that such a journey would push the Israeli F-15s and F-16s outwith their capabilities requiring air-to-air refuelling from Israel's fleet of seven air tankers. This vastly complicates the mission not only in terms of where the tankers would loiter, but they would certainly need their own fleet of fighter aircraft protecting them further complicating the mission.
The question of over flight is equally vexatious. There are essentially three likely flight plans. The northern path follows the Mediterranean, cutting across five hundred miles of Turkey, then flying hundreds of miles into Iran itself before returning the same way. The central route crosses two hundred miles of Jordan, four hundred miles of Iraq, and several hundred miles within Iran itself. The southern route would cover nearly five hundred miles of Saudi Arabia, three hundred miles of Iraq before getting to the Iranian border.
While Israeli planes took the Turkish route in 2007 when attacking Syria, not only have bilateral relations deteriorated significantly since, but Turkey are believed to have upgraded their radar systems and there is little mood within Turkey to allow this to happen again.
Route two through Jordan and Iraq is technically feasible. While Iraq has no Air Force about which to be concerned and Jordan's proximity to Israel renders intercepting Israeli aircraft almost impossible, cutting through Jordan in particular could be a diplomatic disaster. Jordan is one of two countries with a peace treaty with Israel and the only Arab bordering country with whom Israel have workable relations. Moreover, such an act, highlighting the impotence of the Jordanian Government and stimulating rumours that the elite consented to the Israeli attack, could potentially ignite the tinder-box that is Jordan today. The last thing that Israel want is for another unpredictable popular-led revote to take place on its borders.
Option three too is far from idea. Saudi Arabia certainly have the capability to intercept Israeli planes with Air Force bases on the north west, north east, and eastern borders with capable F-15s. This means that Saudi Arabia would have to concent to the Israeli action; a deeply difficult decision to make in these revolting times where populism and strong religious trends are wafting around the region, none of which factors would easily forgive such an act, even if it were to weaken Iran. Moreover, acquiescing to Israel's attack would leave Saudi Arabia itself open to an Iranian retaliatory strike.
Certainly, some combination of, for example, Israeli submarine-launched missiles disabling parts of Iran's air defences, some agreement could be made with, say, Saudi Arabia for unimpeded air passage, and Israel could indeed destroy numerous facilities in Iran. However, overall, it seems beyond the Israeli capability to launch a sustained campaign against Iran and one that could offer a high degree of certainty that critical facilities could be destroyed entirely.
Legally & Internationally
There is little debate that such an attack, without a resolution from the United Nations Security Council, would be wholly illegal.[8] The retort that it is an option of last resort – a pre-emptive attack – would find no legal favour. Indeed, nor is that surprising given the complete lack of proof that Iran will imminently obtain such weapons and then launch them immediately against Israel.
The notion of Iran attacking Israel with nuclear weapons and thereby assuring the sure destruction of its major cities in an assured nuclear retaliation by Israel is nothing less than preposterous, no matter what offensive and threatening quotes Ahmadinajad comes out with. Indeed, why people seem to distrust most things politicians say in the West but believe wholeheartedly whatever nonsense Ahmadinajad comes out with is baffling.
One of the key lessons from the attack on Iraq's nuclear facilities in 1981 is that such a 'pre-emptive' attack may counter intuitively actually speed up a country's desire to obtain nuclear weapons. Målfrid Braut-Hegghammer of the Norwegian Defence College and formerly of Harvard University, who has studied and written on the Osikark attack extensively, noted that before the attack 'Iraq's pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability was both directionless and disorganized.'[9]
Subsequently, the evidence suggests, the regime became convinced of the need to vigorously and single-mindedly pursue such a weapon to the extent that, as the author of a 2005 study on the case notes, 'the Iraqi nuclear program increased from a program of 400 scientists and $400 million to one of 7,000 scientists and $10 billion' after the attack.[10]
One certainly needs to be cautious in pursuing policy by analogy, but there is little reason to think that an attack on Iran would not have the same consequences. While there is undoubted ambiguity at the moment as to whether Iran is actually trying to obtain weapons – remembering the 2003 US Intelligence Estimate but also the damning 2011 IAEA report – were Iran to be attacked, pursuance of an Iranian bomb would likely be a fervent, central goal of the Iranian regime for obvious existential security reasons.
Moreover, exactly as occurred in Iraq, the Iranian regime would likely be even more clandestine about their project, burying it further literally and metaphorically underground and away from international inspection. Certainly, it would be false to say that Iran is compliant with international regulations at present, but ceteris paribus they could be much worse.
Indeed, the notion that such an attack would – at best – only set back the programme, should it exist, is powerful. Former Vice-Chairman of the America Joint Chiefs of Staff James Cartwright noted that the intellectual capital would remain even if the facilities were destroyed and
'they'd just build it back.'[11]
The more direct consequences of an Israeli strike are potentially harrowing. From the potential radioactive fallout wafting across the Gulf to population centres or to the oil fields in eastern Arabia to the thousands of casualties incumbent in any such large-scale attack, the human cost would be high. Internally, the Iranian regime, which has still not recovered from the 2009 election fiasco in which it was widely discredited, would be galvanised in power for the Iranians have their own version of the Israeli mantra of keshe'yorim shotkim ('silence when shooting').
Iran would clearly retaliate. Though Hamas has distanced itself from an automatic retaliation, Hezbollah in Lebanon would surely launch a barrage of rockets into Israel. Indeed, the commonly held notion is that there are 200,000 missiles aimed at Israel at any one time.[12] Iranian agents abroad – as incapable as they seem to be at times – may well target Israelis or Western targets; Iran would likely seek to close down the Strait of Hormuz, potentially spiralling the conflict significantly wider; or if Iran feels that America was complicit, it could retaliate against US bases in the Gulf, hitting Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait.
The key corollary of all of these events and a certainty no matter the Iranian retaliation is a prodigious oil price spike, a profound shock for the teetering global economy, and the spectre of recession or depression as a direct economic consequence. Such scenarios are hardly scaremongering, not even unlikely; indeed, for the afore mentioned consequences, it is but a matter of degree.
Taking all these issues into consideration have been a raft of high-level military and governmental officials from both America and Israel.
US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta has echoed many of the above conclusions, specifically arguing that attacking Iran would:
'simply delay it [obtaining a bomb]…Of greater concern…are the unintended consequences, which would be that ultimately it would have a backlash and the regime that is weak now…would suddenly be able to re-establish itself…able to get support in the region, and …instead of being isolated would get the greater support in a region that right now views it as a pariah."[13]
Michael V. Hayden, a former director of the CIA, bluntly noted that 'airstrikes capable of seriously setting back Iran's nuclear program were "beyond the capacity" of Israel'.[14] He continued to note that overall the Israelis 'only have the ability to make this worse.'[15] Admiral William Fallon, former commander of US Central Command, suggested that 'No one I am aware of thinks that there is a positive outcome from a military strike'[16] while General Martin Dempsey, the current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, noted that a strike against Iran was 'premature'.[17]
Former Mossad Chief of nine years, Meir Dagan, has spoken out on several occasions on this topic, offering a logical, educated, and damning case for the attack on Iran,[18] but more recently plainly summed up the notion as 'a stupid idea'. [19] Another former Mossad Chief Ephraim Halevy cautioned that a strike could be devastating for the Middle East for a century and that Iran is 'far from posing an existential threat to Israel', refuting one of Netanyahu's fundamental arguments.[20] Former Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) Lt-Gen Amnon Lipkin-Shahak repudiated what may seem to be received wisdom noting that 'it is quite clear that much if not all of the IDF…leadership do not support military action at this point.'[21]
A plurality of opinions
Certainly, there are several other high-level officials who argue the opposite. But at the very least the fact that the US Secretary of Defence, several high-ranking intelligence and military officials, and two former Mossad Directors appear to have serious and rational concerns over the viability and the sense of an Israeli attack on Iran, is a serious cause for concern. These non-political actors, without an obvious political axe to grind [though one may cast aspersions at Meir Dagan] and aware of the intelligence that most are not privy to, pour scorn on many of the key arguments of those proposing or seeking such an action. Also, lest one forget, none are running for elected position in the foreseeable future.
This plurality of opinion and the profoundly concerning history of those adamant that Iran would have a nuclear weapon in two, three or five years time, means that the case for Israel attacking Iran is less than certain, while an examination of the technical possibilities questions whether such an attack is even possible. And surely if one is engaging in such a policy with such profound implications, it would seem to be sensible if not mandatory that a high burden of proof is required. As yet there is – unequivocally – no such consensus.
[1] Ewen MacAskill, 'Iran nears nuclear 'point of no return' The Guardian (27 January 2005) http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/jan/27/politics.iran
[2] Angus Hohenboken, Iran will soon post N-threat, says Israel' The Australian (31 January 2009) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/israel-iran-will-soon-pose-n-threat/story-e6frg6tx-1111118716317
[3] An excellent round of these dates can be found in Christian Science Monitor. Scott Peterson, 'Imminenet Iran nuclear threat? I timeline of warnings since 1979' Christian Science Monitor (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1108/Imminent-Iran-nuclear-threat-A-timeline-of-warnings-since-1979/Earliest-warnings-1979-84
[4] http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1108/Imminent-Iran-nuclear-threat-A-timeline-of-warnings-since-1979/Israel-s-one-year-timeframe-disproved-2010-11
[5] Eric Margolis, 'A radioactive situation' The National Interest (24 February 2012) http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/radioactive-situation-6566
[6] Eli Lake 'Inside Obama's Israel bomb sale' Newsweek (25 September 2011) http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/09/25/obama-arms-israel.html
[7] Tony Capaccio, B-2 bomber gets Boeing's new 30,000 pound bunker buster bomb' Bloomberg (15 November 2011) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-14/30-000-pound-bunker-buster-bomb-now-ready.html
[8] Bruce Ackerman, 'The legal case against attacking Iran' Los Angeles Times (5 March 2012) (http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-ackerman-attacking-iran-would-be-illegal-20120305,0,4429323.story
[9] Quoted in Colin Kahl, 'Before attacking Iran, Israel should learn from its 1981 strike on Iraq' The Washington Post (2 March 2012) http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/an-israeli-attack-against-iran-would-backfire–just-like-israels-1981-strike-on-iraq/2012/02/28/gIQATOMFnR_story.html
[10] http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/an-israeli-attack-against-iran-would-backfire–just-like-israels-1981-strike-on-iraq/2012/02/28/gIQATOMFnR_story_2.html
[11] Geoff Dyer, 'Israel faces resistance over Iran strike' The Financial Times (28 February 2012) http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fd386d8e-6161-11e1-8a8e-00144feabdc0.html
[12] Amos Harel, 'Some 200,000 missiles aimed consistently at Israel, top IDF officer says' Haaretz (2 February 2012) http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/some-200-000-missiles-aimed-consistently-at-israel-top-idf-officer-says-1.410584
[13] Remarks by Secretary of Defence Leon E Panetta at the Saban Centre US Department of Defence (News Transcript) 2 December 2011 http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4937
[14] Elizabeth Bulmiller, 'Iran raid seen as a huge task for Israeli jets' New York Times (19 February 2012) http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/world/middleeast/iran-raid-seen-as-complex-task-for-israeli-military.html?ref=elisabethbumiller
[15] http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fd386d8e-6161-11e1-8a8e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1oWtKPOHn
[16] Patrick Buchanan 'Will Bibi break Obama?' CNS News (2 March 2012) http://cnsnews.com/node/519217
[18] Amos Harel, 'Former Mossad chief: Israeli attack on Iran must be stopped to avert catastrophe' Haaretz(1 December 2011) http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/former-mossad-chief-israeli-attack-on-iran-must-be-stopped-to-avert-catastrophe-1.399046
[19] Isabel Kershner, 'Israeli strike on Iran would be 'stupid', ex-spy chief says New York Times (8 May 2011) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/09/world/middleeast/09israel.html
[20] Yoav Zitun, 'Iran far from posing existential threat' Y Net News (11 April 2011) http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4143909,00.html
[21] 'Israel's military leaders warm against Iran attack' The Independent (2 February 2012) http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israels-military-leaders-warn-against-iran-attack-6298102.html?printService=print
Iran's oil exports map 15, January 2012
Tags: Iran, Iran oil exports, Iran oil exports map
Here's a quick and easy map from CNN showing where Iran sends its oil. I'd be more impressed, though, if it showed what percentage of oil Iran's sales made in the countries in question.
Hat tip: ScottLucasUK
Decoding Iran's Missile Tests 4, January 2012
Posted by thegulfblog.com in American ME Relations, Iran.
Tags: Iran, Iran close down Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Missile Tests, Iranian missiles, Strait of Hormuz, US Iranian relations
Over the Christmas and New Year holidays Iran undertook a series of naval exercises in Gulf waters, which included the test firing of a range of missiles, one of which could theoretically reach as far as Israel. While Iran's military elite claimed that the tests were successful, given their record of exaggeration and the attempted manipulation of photos of missile launches, it is difficult to take such statements at face value.
Yet such tests are not really about tactical military preparations or the meaningful testing of a new missile. Instead they are designed to once again rattle the sabre, to remind both the Gulf states and in particular Europe and America of Iran's military threat. In particular, these exercises and other bellicose statements in recent weeks about Iran's ability to "close down the Strait of Hormuz" are aimed at pressuring European states not to back America's new tough round of sanctions on Iran.
In other words, the exercises and the threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz are mostly a PR diplomatic bluff; yet this is not to say that they should be ignored.
The greater tensions in the Gulf and the more exercise that Iran feels it needs to put on, the greater the chance of a conflagration occurring by accident. Recent instances of the kidnapping of British Marines in 2007 and of Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) boats "buzzing" US warships in 2008 could easily have escalated quickly and were enormously incendiary and foolish actions by Iran.
US election season being underway may have prompted President Obama's tougher new sanctions on Iran to shore up his "strong man" credentials and though America certainly does not want to instigate an actual confrontation with Iran in this post-Iraq era, provocative actions and miscalculations from Iran in the context of pressure from domestic, Gulf and Israeli lobbies could prove difficult to resist.
At the same time, Iran does not want a "hot war" in the Gulf either. Despite the constant inflammatory rhetoric emanating from Tehran, the elite knows full well that were a conflict to occur with US or Gulf forces in the region, even were Iran's asymmetric forces to strike a blow or two, given the profound technological mismatch between Iran and America and its Gulf allies, overall it is not difficult to imagine Iran's entire Navy, significant portions of its air force and any number of its petroleum installations being summarily destroyed. While this would temporarily solidify the Iranian elite's position given the likely subsequent rallying of public support, such blows could be profoundly crippling.
While some suggest that Iran's elite is intrinsically unstable or "irrational" and may actually seek such a conflict given that they are beholden to their religiously inspired Revolution, one only need recall that at the height of Khomeini's rule in the 1980s, despite typically nasty rhetoric to the contrary, Khomeini engaged and traded with Israel. Iran needed spare parts for its fighters and Israel wanted oil: rhetoric is one thing; realpolitik is another.
Despite neither side wanting serious escalation, neither America nor Iran appear able to escape their cold war. Aside from a deep history of mistrust and proxy conflicts for more than three decades, today Iran feels profoundly encircled and afraid. It sees tens of US bases and tens of thousands of US troops to its north, south, east and west, not to mention US allies laden with advanced military equipment across from Iran in the Gulf.
Wholly unable to cope with such a conventional military challenge, Iran has instead engaged in augmenting its asymmetric forces both in terms of the IRGC and by supporting groups such as Hezbollah. This, in turn – in addition to persistent US claims that Iran has been involved with the supplying of, for example, IEDs in Afghanistan and Iraq to kill US forces – has entrenched US implacability to Iran.
Thus today the "Great Satan" is a mainstay of Iranian politics and Iran is a byword for perfidy in US domestic politics, making reaching any accommodation difficult. Iran's recent overture for diplomacy is cleverly timed for Tehran knows perfectly well that the Obama Administration will find it all but impossible to engage during the election season. Therefore, when America rejects this attempt, Iran can claim that it tried the diplomatic route but was rebuffed, much as President Obama did with his initial overtures after he was elected.
There are no easy exits on the horizon from this vicious cycle. Both sides know fundamentally that they need to talk, but both are constrained by their domestic climates, where accommodation and even discussion is seen – absurdly – as weakness. So too are Gulf states constrained in their relations with significant antipathy across the region to Iran. Yet the immutable relations between Iran and the Gulf states born of their unalterable proximity is perhaps the best hope for a future accommodation. Both HH the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, HE the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabor al-Thani, and most recently Mohamed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the Prime Minister of the UAE, have voiced sporadically reasoned and moderate views on Iran; yet much work and time is yet needed – not to mention a partner in Iran – for such sentiments to prevail and for a new Gulf security architecture to replace the current failing framework.
Published in The Gulf Times
Iranian encirclement 12, December 2011
Tags: America, American bases Central Asia, American bases Middle East, American bases surrounding Iran, Iran, Iranian American relations
Each star is a US base.
An excellent map from Juan Cole.
On Iran's Stealth RQ 170 Capture 9, December 2011
Tags: American drone caputres, Beast of Kandahar, Beast of Kandahar caputred, Iran, Iran shot down drone, RQ 170, RQ 170 captured
So Iran did actually manage to get a hold of one of America's drones this time? I would imagine that there are some highly concerned people in Washington and some people buying air tickets and grabbing bags full of cash in Moscow and Beijing.
Iran insists that it remotely jammed the UAV and landed it on purpose. But Iran lies quite a lot about these things. Their technology is, obviously enough , enormously inferior to America's, but America's hubris knows no bounds: hence the debacle in Iraq with the feeds from UAVs. Certainly, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Iran hacked the feed and took control of it (their asymmetric warfare capabilities need to be noted as significant, in particular) but it is more likely that either 1) a technical error from the US side caused the issue or 2) Iran managed to scramble the signal somehow. Either which way, these UAVs are designed to land themselves somewhere flat so certainly it didn't need the Iranians to guide it down.
Certainly, this is a blow for America. How bad a problem remains to be seen in a few years when grainy footage emerges from a Chinese military base of a wing shaped UAV taking off.
Yet such a UAV has such eventualities taken into account; there is some degree of expendability built in.This is not to try to minimize the loss; as Michael Dunn notes, now for one thing Iran will be able to learn exactly what the RQ 170 actually does (i.e. only photography, sigint, radar suppression etc or some combination thereof).
There are, of course, two other possibilities entirely. 1) That Iran has made this out of leftover polystyrene and sticky back plastic or that 2) this is some enormously elaborate sting by America. Neither are that likely, but neither can be ruled out. Let the speculation begin.
Iran can 'easily' occupy Saudi Arabia 17, October 2011
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Iran, Saudi Arabia.
Tags: Iran, Iran can destroy Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia
Let no one say that some Iranian Ministers do not have a good sense of humour.
Mohammed Karim Abedi, a member of Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in the Iranian parliament, confidently stated that 'Iran was capable of occupying Saudi Arabia if it chooses [sic] to do so'.
Iran's military forces have the ability to strip Saudi Arabia of its security whenever it wants and Saudi Arabia will not be capable of responding.
Wholly without irony with this belligerent statement, he was replying to the accusation that Iran was plotting to assassinate the KSA Ambassador in Washington DC [my thoughts on which will appear soon].
He also noted that Iran has infiltrated Israel with spies so that it now knows 'critical information' to be used should the two states ever come to blows. I'm sure that those in Tel Aviv are terrified.
Of course he sounds like an ass to us, but we're hardly the intended targets: all politics is domestic, let's not forget.
On Iran and the GCC 22, August 2011
Posted by thegulfblog.com in Bahrain, Iran.
Tags: Bahrain, Iran, Iran and the GCC
The Guardian have published an article of mine on the GCC fixation with Iran. Despite a bit of butchery with the editing robbing my opening sentence of its mojo, it is still, I feel, worth a read!


2018 Interest Rates Are Rising Faster Than High Tide During a Full Moon.
In this article, we explain why interest rates are going up in 2018, how far they may go up, and how you can benefit from knowing your options now.
Why are interest rates increasing in 2018?
How high will interest rates increase in 2018?
The Federal Open Market Committee controls the supply of credit to banks and the sale of treasury securities.
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After the real estate crash of 2007, the FOMC stepped in to institute a series of fiscal support policies designed to keep interest rates low.
In the fourth quarter of 2008, the FOMC began a program called Quantitative Easing, investing trillions of dollars toward the purchase of mortgage securities to create liquidity in the secondary market.
This unprecedented fiscal policy was a bold move by the Federal Reserve to artificially keep long term home loan interest rates unusually low over the past 10 years.
Beginning in the third quarter of 2017, the Fed has now begun to gradually reduce its $4.2 trillion portfolio of United States Treasury debt.
This move comes as a strong vote of confidence that the economy's steady growth is likely to continue, and among other strong economic indicators, is driving home loan interest rates higher in 2018.
How High Will Interest Rates Increase?
As the Government pulls out of the home loan interest rate manipulation game, bond markets are rapidly increasing yields in an effort to attract investors. As bond yields increase, so do mortgage interest rates.
In the below charts, you can see the relationship between increasing yields on the 10 year treasury bonds compared to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS).
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The PMMS currently collects information from 125 thrifts, credit unions, commercial and residential mortgage lenders across the Country. This survey is designed to track trends in long, and short term interest rates.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac's Economic & Housing Research group, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac's business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the Economic & Housing Research group attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. The information is therefore provided on an "as is" basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution. Alteration of this document is strictly prohibited. ©2018 by Freddie Mac.
With the Fed pulling out of the interest rate manipulation game, it is unlikely that the increasing interest rate trend will slow down in the near future.
It is even more unlikely that interest rates will go down, or make a downward "correction".
This is a normal interest rate market, and it is likely to continue to trend in this direction until it settles into the "New Normal". Of course, it's easy to be right, until you're wrong.
There are many opinions out there on what the new normal will be, and this is just one of them. My crystal ball broke in 2007, and it's been a "wait and see" game ever since.
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If I had to make an educated guess, I would expect interest rates on a Conventional 30 year fixed mortgage to reach 5% by 3rd quarter 2018.
How high can they go? Again, my educated guess is that you will see interest rates settle in right around 5% ( +/- .25%) mark, which will be the "new normal" for the foreseeable future.
Conforming loan limits increased in 2018, with Fannie Mae citing national home values increasing 6.8% on average. Home owners are benefiting from increasing home values for the first time in a long time.
Home values are based on how much a home buyer would pay for a home similar to yours. We are currently in a market where many home owners have low interest rates and are not selling.
Homeowners not selling creates a shortage of home available for sale.
In simple terms, with low inventory (homes for sale) and high demand (buyers trying to get low rates), that drives up home values.
When interest rates increase, it decreases affordability for home buyers. When it's more expensive to borrow money, home buyers qualify for less.
In a normal housing market, this results in a decrease in demand, which means that home sellers are forced to lower sales prices to have access to more buyers.
As interest rates increase, home buyers that were previously thinking about buying are going to rush into the market to buy before affordability is out of reach.
As home buyers rush to take advantage of interest rates while they are still in the 4% range, expect low inventory to create bidding wars, driving up home prices up in the short run.
As interest rates settle into a "new normal", home values may slow down, and potentially even begin to come down in areas that were over-priced to begin with.
There is potentially a "sweet spot" where homeowners have an opportunity access equity in your home while interest rates are still relatively low.
Reinvesting home equity into home improvements will help preserve the value of your home in the future. Deferred maintenance is a major factor in lowering the value of your home if you want refinance or sell the home in the future.
With conforming loan limits increasing in 2018, you now access to more of your equity for home improvements, debt consolidation, or other investments that require a down payment that you do not currently have in your savings.
A cash out refinance is your opportunity to access your equity on a "one-time" basis, and fix your payments and interest rate for the remaining term of the loan.
The alternative to a cash out refinance is a home equity line of credit, or HELOC. A HELOC is an adjustable rate mortgage that is tied to the Prime interest.
The Federal Reserve has already committed to increasing rates 3 more times in 2018. This increase directly affects how interest rates are determined for a HELOC.
The last few increases have been .25% – that directly increased the interest rate on a HELOC by .25%.
The recent rise in interest rates are in part being driven by the expectations that the Fed will increase rates 4 times in 2018 instead of the projected 3 times that are already factored into the market.
If each of these scheduled increases are .25%, you're looking at HELOC interest rates increasing between .75% and 1.00% in 2018.
A HELOC sounds like a good idea initially because of the interest only payment. One inherent danger of using an interest only home equity line of credit is that interest rate increases are already a fact.
It's not a matter of "if", only "when" those increases will occur.
Another inevitability with a home equity line of credit is that it will convert to a fully amortized, adjustable rate mortgage after the 10 year interest only term is up.
This will force the hand of many homeowners that would have challenges making payments on this new reduced term, high interest rate second mortgage.
A HELOC is a great option if you have the discipline to borrow against your equity with a HELOC, and then pay that balance off quickly, leaving an open line of credit available for emergencies.
If you have a HELOC now, you likely have already moved past your "introductory rate" and have seen your interest rate increase in 2017.
Your rates will continue to increase throughout 2018, and if your HELOC is set to fully amortize in the next few years, now might be the time to pay off that HELOC with a cash out refinance.
Most homeowners are not going to consider a rate and term refinance when interest rates increase. Especially considering that interest rates have been so low for so long, it's unlikely you would be able to lower your interest rate now.
With the increase of home values over the past couple of years, many homeowners are eager to remove mortgage insurance.
Mortgage insurance is permanent on FHA loan, and refinancing is the only way to remove it. Conventional loans that had less than 20% equity at the time of the last home loan may also have PMI.
Conventional PMI can be removed by the lender once you pay down the original principal balance to under 20% (by request), or automatically at 78% loan to value.
In most cases, your actual interest rate will increase by doing a rate and term refinance to remove mortgage insurance.
If makes sense to take a higher interest rate than you have now if the effective interest rate, which is your actual rate plus the mortgage insurance, is higher than your new actual interest rate after the refinance.
Fannie Mae made changes to their guidelines in 2017 to allow you to pay off Student Loans without the costs associated with a cash out refinance.
If you have student loans, or if you co-signed for student loans, you can now do a rate and term refinance to pay off that debt. This would make sense if your student loan interest rates are higher than current mortgage rates.
Parents that have co-signed on a student loan for your son or daughter can take advantage of this new guideline to help your kids get a head start and avoid student loan payment issues when trying to buy their first home in the future.
If you have questions about how rising interest rates will affect you, if you should consider a cash out refinance, a HELOC, or if you should just stick with where you're at now, it's important that you consult a professional loan officer that does this for a living.
A professional loan officer will listen to your goals, analyze your options, and guide you through the decision making process to determine the best decision for you and your family.
Have questions? Click here to ask a question, or leave a comment below. I answer questions very quickly.
If you're ready to start saving now, let our mortgage experts do a FREE home loan analysis that will show you all of your refinancing options.
Good afternoon Mr. Schang, hoping all is well. Regarding interest rates…..I am currently 49 days from the projected date (March 26th) that the builder has giving me to close. I'm currently working with the builders preferred lender . I've been watching the interest rate hikes and they have been increasing for the last 3 weeks, therefore time is money. My buyers agent informed me that the lender intent is to request updated doc's to begin the underwriting process at 45 days….. Is this normal? or should I be in panic mote and pushing this issue?
It's not unusual to update your income and asset documentation, these documents must be dated within the last 30 days of closing. It does seem a little unusual if they are just now submitting the loan to underwriting.
Normally, at least what I would do, is to get you fully underwritten and approved for the financing so that there are no surprises as you approach the finish line. Having a full underwriting approval would also put you in a position to lock in your interest rate at a moment's notice.
In situations like yours, we would simply update the pay stubs and bank statements before closing the loan so that the file is updated.
I wouldn't be in panic mode, but I would be concerned that you do not already have a full underwriting approval.
You are not required to use the builder's lender. If you would like a second opinion, I'm happy to introduce you to someone that I know and trust from our Expert Network. I know every one of these lenders personally.
If you would like a second opinion, shoot me an email to scott@findmywayhome.com with your contact information and the State you're buying in, and I can make an introduction.


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— японский самурайский род . Существовал с периода Сэнгоку по период Эдо.

История
Клан Нисио происходит от клана Кира (линия Сэйва-Гэндзи). Кира Ёсицугу (1530—1606), сын Киры Мотихиро (ум. 1539), последовательно служил Оде Нобунаге, Тоётоми Хидэёси и Токугаве Иэясу. Он первым принял фамилию «Нисио». В период Эдо род Нисио, наследственные вассалы клана Токугава, был квалифицирован как один из кланов фудай-даймё .

Нисио Ёсицугу получил во владение Хараити-хан с доходом 12 000 коку в провинции Мусаси в 1602 году. Его приёмный сын, Нисио Таданага (1584—1620), в 1616 году был переведен в Сирои-хан в провинции Кодзукэ с доходом 20 000 коку, а в 1618 году получил во владение Цутиура-хан в провинции Хитати с доходом 20 000 коку.

Нисио Тадатэру (1613—1654), старший сын Таданаги, в 1620 году стал 2-м даймё Цутиура-хана, а в 1649 году был переведен в Танака-хан в провинции Суруга с доходом 25 000 коку. Его сын и преемник, Нисио Таданари (1653—1713), 2-й даймё Танака-хана (1654—1679), в 1679 году был переведен в Коморо-хан в провинции Синано, а в 1682 году получил во владение Ёкосука-хан в провинции Тотоми с доходом 25 000 коку. Потомки Нисио Таданари управлял княжеством Ёкосука до Реставрации Мэйдзи в 1868 году. Последним (8-м) даймё Ёкосука-хана был Нисио Тадаацу (1850—1910), правивший в 1861—1868 годах.

После Реставрации Мэйдзи Нисио Тадаацу был переведен во вновь созданный Ханабуса-хан в провинции Ава (1868—1871), позднее ему был пожаловал титул виконта (сисяку) в новой японской аристократической иерархии (кадзоку).

Примечания

Источники
 Appert, Georges and H. Kinoshita. (1888).  Ancien Japon.  Tokyo: Imprimerie Kokubunsha.
 Papinot, Edmund.. (1906) Dictionnaire d'histoire et de géographie du japon. Tokyo: Librarie Sansaisha...Click link for digitized 1906 Nobiliaire du japon (2003)

Ссылки
 Nishio clan on Harimaya's «Buke-kaden»

Самурайские роды

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Hotel Iris**** is a new fourstar Prague hotel, built as a part of the multipurpose sports complex on the edge of Prague's city centre. Hotel Iris offers accommodations in Prague's centre in 149 airconditioned and comfortablyfurnished rooms with satellite TV and Internet connections. Furthermore, there are conference facilities available with a maximum capacity of 250 seats. There is also a modern restaurant with an orientation on Czech cuisine as well as international specialties.
987 Prague hotel is situated in dazzling location at the historical centre of Prague very close to the main places of interest and commercial avenues.


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Cancer patients have a much higher risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19, even if they are fully vaccinated, according to a new small-scale study.
The study, published Friday in Annals of Oncology, found that cancer patients had a 13% death rate if they suffered from a breakthrough infection.
The study was conducted by the COVID-19 and Cancer Consortium (CCC19), a group of 129 research centers that tracked the impact of the virus on cancer patients. This is the first study to examine the levels of risk for cancer patients experiencing breakthrough cases, the researchers say.
"Cancer patients who develop breakthrough COVID-19 even after a full vaccination can still experience serious results, including death," Dr Toni Choueiri, director of the Lank Center for Genitouriary Care at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and main author of the report, said in a press release. "This is why a multi-level approach that includes masking and social distancing, as well as vaccination and a booster against COVID-19 remains an essential approach for the foreseeable future. "
The study used data collected by CCC19 as part of an international investigation conducted on their website, focusing on people with current or past cancer and one laboratory-confirmed case of COVID-19. between November 2020 and the end of May 2021.
A total of 1,787 cancer patients had contracted COVID-19 during this period, most of them not being vaccinated.
Only 54 patients were fully vaccinated when they contracted the virus, with full vaccination counted as those who received two injections of the Pfizer-BioNtech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, or one injection of Johnson & Johnson jab.
Of those who had a breakthrough case, 65% had to be hospitalized, 19% were in intensive care on a mechanical ventilator, and 13% died from the virus within 30 days.
Although the researchers noted that the study had a small sample size and therefore may not be entirely accurate, a death rate of 13% for breakthrough cases in cancer patients is still significantly higher than the death rate for the average population. According to Canadian data, more than 88,000 people contracted COVID-19 while they were fully vaccinated, but only 1,017 of those people subsequently died from the virus, corresponding to a death rate of approximately 1.14%.
The researchers noted that previous research has shown that cancer patients may not be able to produce the same immune response as the average person when they are vaccinated.
A June study found that antibody levels were significantly lower in people with blood cancer than in those with solid tumors.
"Because measures of immunity are not routinely collected in clinical care, we do not know if these were patients who developed effective immune responses after vaccination; a lot of emerging data suggests that cancer patients, especially blood cancers, do not develop adequate protective immune responses, "said Dr Jeremy Warner, director of the CCC19 Research Coordination Center and lead author of the new study, in the Liberation.
He also noted that their study found that having other risk factors in a patient, as well as whether their cancer is active and progressing or not, increased their risk of death.
"It's important to note that many of the same factors we identified before the vaccine became available – age, co-morbidities, performance status, and progressing cancer – still appear to be behind many of the poor outcomes," did he declare.
The study appears to support previous research which found that people with blood cancers are at a higher risk of COVID-19. In both vaccinated and unvaccinated patients involved in the new study, ICU and hospitalization rates increased if the patients had blood cancer rather than solid tumors.
The new study also found that among fully vaccinated cancer patients, 46% had reduced levels of lymphocytes, which are a type of white blood cell important for the immune system.
Having lower levels of these types of cells is called lymphopenia, and this is common in patients receiving certain types of cancer treatment, such as treatment for lymphoma and leukemia. According to the study, patients in the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups who had lymphopenia had higher rates of ICUs and hospitalizations than other patients.
Due to the small size of the new study, the researchers say they can't determine which cancer treatments might be associated with breakthrough infections or what the worst outcomes of a breakthrough infection are.
"Similar results (high mortality rates among fully vaccinated individuals) have been reported in other populations of immunocompromised patients, such as organ transplant recipients, before the use of additional vaccine doses", Dr Dimitrios Farmakiotis, infectious disease clinician at Warren Alpert. Medical School of Brown University and a lead author of the study, said in the statement.
The researchers say the study results underscore how important it is not only to get the vaccine, but also to implement a multi-pronged response to protect those most at risk, including patients with Cancer.
"These findings come at a time of fears that immune escape mutants such as the Omicron strain may emerge from chronically infected patients with weakened immune systems," Farmakiotis said. "Thus, the immunocompromised and their close contacts should be target groups for therapeutic and preventive interventions, including outreach and education efforts at the community level."
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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MRes RCA Show: Critical Investigations into the Future of Art and Design Research
Rebuild Aleppo City's Archive, Anas Shrefahe 2018
Aleppo City Memory, Anas Shrefahe 2018
rethinkAI™, Vali Lalioti 2018
© 2018, ValiLalioti ltd.
rethinkAI™ workshop, Vali Lalioti 2018
How do you solve a problem like Teresa?, Harri Hudspith 2018
A public exhibition and symposium at the RCA's Kensington campus presents the art and design research projects from the first cohort of graduating Masters of Research (MRes) RCA students. From 10 to 13 September, the practice-based and practice-led research of 26 students across the Programme's four pathways, will be on display for the public to engage with through installations, performances, lectures and discussions.
The MRes RCA programme provides early and mid-career art and design researchers with the intellectual, technical and professional tools with which to complete high-quality research projects. The programme is a uniquely interdisciplinary degree, and the first to be taught across all four Schools of the RCA. Over a full-time year it offers training in practice and theory-led research methods for critical studies in art and design.
As demonstrated by the graduating students' work, MRes RCA supports students from diverse backgrounds. Students come from previous study both in art and design and in related disciplines such as history, political sciences and psychology, and with experience working in the creative industries, as practising architects, designers and artists.
Dr Esther Teichmann, Head of Programme for MRes RCA commented: 'The exhibition and symposium offers a great opportunity for the MRes students to present their work in public, sharing their research ideas and process, highlighting the cross disciplinary and research focus of this new unique programme.'
Across the pathways in the College's four Schools – Architecture, Arts & Humanities, Communication, and Design – each student has addressed a specific question, problem or impetus, applying diverse research methods both from within and beyond art and design disciplines.
On the Communication Pathway students have considered a broad range of contexts and applications for new modes and means of communication from the history of the emoji and the tensions of its presentation as a universal visual language, to the use of virtual reality to create immersive data visualisations. Emily Hoong's thesis 'Filthy Blood: Selling Menstrual Etiquette' engages with the conversation to liberate women's periods from shame and cost. Her project investigates how packaging design can be used to challenge attitudes towards menstruation, tackling the accepted view that periods should not be talked about and that sanitary products and menstrual blood should not be seen.
Students take an experimental and expanded approach to architectural research on the Architecture Pathway, considering topics at all levels of practice from the RIBA Plan for Work and its impact on the quality of architectural practice to data practices and how technology extends human vision, touch and temporality. Anas Shrefahe has considered the role played by heritage, archive and memory in healing and rebuilding the city of Aleppo. His research reflects on how collective memory can be used to reveal and recover cultural heritage and considers both the tangible and intangible assets needed to reconstruct the ancient city, recapture its original spirit and encourage the community to interact positively with the space.
Research projects on the Design Pathway present ways in which design can tackle pressing real world problems, from improving cycle safety in London to furniture design that enhances social interactions in the home. Vali Lalioti has created a toolkit in the form of a game that can be used by designers to explore how human and AI strengths can be developed together. This participatory, social and interactive approach has been tested and validated through workshops with business professionals and aims to encourage human AI interaction to take on a co-evolutionary relationship.
Within the Arts & Humanities Pathway the projects range from an exploration of women-only spaces through water and skin to Chinese calligraphy in relationship to personal memories and family traditions. Focusing on the Spanish mystic St Teresa of Avila, Harri Hudspith's research considers the role of Christianity in forming notions of sex, sexuality and the body. Through deconstructing Gian Lorenzo Bernini's The Ecstasy of Saint Teresa and figurative emulation of Teresa's ascetic mystical practice, Hudspith questions notions of ineffability, embodied expression of psychological experience and soul–body dualism.
Alongside the exhibition a symposium is taking place on 13 September from 12–5pm, which will further disseminate the cross-disciplinary dialogues behind the students' research projects. Two panel discussions 'Knowledge Production Through Practice – Deconstruction as Method' and 'Imagining Alternative Futures – Speculative Design to rethink existing Structures' will feature student presentations and guest speakers: RCA Senior Tutor for Research in the School of Arts & Humanities Professor Rebecca Fortnum; fashion researcher Dr Lara Torres; and Michael Burton and Michiko Nitta, an interdisciplinary art and design studio.
Master of Research (MRes) RCA Exhibition & Symposium 2018
Exhibition: 10–13 September, Hockney and Courtyard Galleries, Kensington
Private view: 13 September, 6–8pm
Symposium: September 13, 12–5pm, Lecture Theatre 1, Darwin Building, Kensington
Find out more about MRes RCA and the Pathways in Architecture, Fine Art & Humanities, Communication Design and Design and how to apply.
Jessie Bond
Research, Knowledge Exchange & Innovation
MRes RCA: Design Pathway
MRes RCA: Communication Design Pathway
MRes RCA: Arts & Humanities Pathway
MRes RCA: Architecture Pathway
RCA MRes Students on an Exciting, Interdisciplinary Approach to Research
Dr Esther Teichmann Appointed Head of Programme MRes RCA
Government Makes Public Budget Commitment to New Royal College of Art Campus
RCA MRes Architecture Announces International Seminar for Contour Biennale 9


High specificity is the pre-requisite for any antibody used in diagnostic and therapeutic applications. Antibody cross-reactivity will create unexpected side effects of false diagnostic reports for clinicians. Research data from various groups have shown that some monoclonal antibodies on the market are not mono-specific. However, there was no commercial tool available to test the specificity of an antibody thoroughly.
OriGene now provides UltraMAB Service, the ultimate array test to validate the antibody specificity. The UltraMAB Service leverages OriGene's proprietary technology platform, the High-Density Protein Microarray, to test the specificity of an antibody against the human proteome in a high-throughput manner. This platform can also be used to screen for the target(s) of an antibody or a small molecule.
What is High-Density Protein Microarray?
With a large collection of overexpression antigen standards, OriGene developed a high-density protein microarray chip for antibody evaluation at the proteome-wide level. This protein chip is spotted with over 10,000 overexpression proteins in duplicate on a single nitrocellulose coated glass slide, as well as various positive and negative controls. The array was manufactured as indicated in the flow chart below and tested with 1:500 dilution of OriGene's anti-DDK (FLAG) tag antibody followed by DyLight 649 conjugated goat anti-mouse IgG secondary antibody.
Under current specifications of the 10K microarray chip, 10,728 samples were spotted in duplicates on a single nitrocellulose slide. These include 10,020 overexpression lysates and 708 positive and negative control samples. The premium 17K chip contains 16,242 overexpression lysates. Serial diluted mouse, human and rabbit IgG mixture as positive controls were spotted on three subarrays highlighted in redboxes. Subarrays highlighted in yellowboxes contain serial diluted HEK293T cell lysates as negative controls. All the subarrays contain standard positive and negative controls as shown in the figure above. The major protein family coverage is shown in the figure below.
The current service offers our standard 10,000 or platinum 17,000 human protein array. The average timeline for array chip test and data analysis is 3 weeks upon receiving customer's antibody.
OriGene has applied the High-Density Protein Microarray to test the specificity of over 100 UltraMAB® and other commercial antibodies. Here we showcase two case studies of the comparison between UltraMAB and other antibodies with the microarray.


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Home/U.S./Trump publishes video of a couple brandishing weapons at protesters | News
Trump publishes video of a couple brandishing weapons at protesters | News
June 30, 2020 U.S. Comments Off on Trump publishes video of a couple brandishing weapons at protesters | News
United States President Donald Trump released a video Monday showing a Missouri couple brandishing weapons at protesters calling for police reforms, again exacerbating racial tensions in the United States.
The Republican president received a quick conviction Sunday for retweeting a video of a Florida supporter shouting "white power," a phrase used by white supremacist groups, and then removed it. The White House said Trump had not heard the slogan.
Without comment, Trump retweeted an ABC News video Monday showing a white couple brandishing weapons against black and white protesters marching outside a St Louis house. In the video and others on social media, some protesters can be seen pausing to film or photograph the couple, while others can be yelled at, "Keep moving!" and "Come on!"
A couple pointed guns at protesters in St. Louis as a group marched toward the mayor's house to demand his resignation. https://t.co/5EqDd43QCd pic.twitter.com/KWNaif77ch
– ABC News (@ABC) June 29, 2020
According to local media, the couple had asked the police for help once they saw the large crowd enter Portland Place, where their $ 1.15mn mansion is located. The couple, identified by the media as Mark T. and Patricia N. McCloskey, had been home and heard a loud commotion coming from the street. They went to investigate and saw "a large group of subjects smashed into an iron door marked with 'No Trespassing' and 'Private Street' signs," police said.
"The group began shouting obscenities and threats of harm to both victims," police said according to the St. Louis Police Office. "When the victims observed multiple armed subjects, they armed themselves and contacted the police."
Police said they are continuing to investigate the incident at Portland Place, but they label it as a fourth-degree intrusion and assault for intimidation case.
Trump also criticized Princeton University's announcement over the weekend that he would remove the name of former United States President Woodrow Wilson from his schools for his racist comments and policies.
"Unbelievable stupidity!" Trump tweeted.
Opinion polls show Trump follows his likely Democratic rival in the Nov. 3 election, former Vice President Joe Biden, and a growing number of Americans who sympathize with protesters and support police reforms.
Princeton's decision is part of a radical reevaluation of historical icons and nicknames amid growing calls for racial justice following the murder of American blacks, including George Floyd, whose death under the knees of a white police officer in May sparked protests. worldwide.
Critics have highlighted Trump's hostile response to protests against racial injustice and actions like Princeton's, even as Mississippi voted Sunday to remove the Confederate flag symbol from its state flag, Walmart stopped selling the Confederate flag and NASCAR banned the symbol of the Civil War era.
Participants march towards the Washington Monument during the March of the Black Mamas as protests of racial inequality continue in Washington, DC, USA. [Yuri Gripas/Reuters]
Trump also retweeted 15 previous posts Monday highlighting people wanted by the US Park Police for allegedly destroying a statue in Lafayette Square outside the White House on June 22.
Trump, who canceled a weekend trip to his New Jersey resort to manage what he said was expected to be a riot in Washington, played golf at his Virginia property both Saturday and Sunday without other public events.
The events of the weekend in Washington were largely peaceful, including the March of the Black Mamas on Saturday.
Tags Black Lives Matter protests Donald Trump racism Social networks U.S. USA and Canada
Late Night Reflects on the legacy of 'Let Who Shul Riman Shameless'


Our saucer magnolia had a tiny bit of stamina left, but I didn't think it was worth saving. Sapsuckers had just about taken the life out of it three years ago. I wanted to cut it down. Rose would have none of it. My buddy the arborist Robert Rollins intervened. He listened to both impassioned sides. His advice: take it easy; give the tree the tree a little time.
Robert's crew drastically cut back the dead limbs, approaching one-quarter of the entire canopy. Dozens of weak sucker sprouts grew that first year. Surprisingly, since then, the tree has kept chugging along.
Our neighbor Otis Knox planted the Magnolia x soulangeana in the early 80s, down near the barn and the old corncrib. Otis once owned our place in Salvisa. He lives across the Salt River from us now. A few weeks ago I asked Otis about the wood-pecking sapsuckers. He didn't remember that they had been a problem on his watch.
Rings of shot holes, from the base of the tree to the top, disrupted the flow of sap and cut off portions of the tree's nervous system. The damage is telltale. Too many shot holes can kill a tree.
Sapsuckers seem to be picky about their tastes. In our case, they chose Otis's tree. There might be something special about this magnolia's sap—its unique, sweet nectar. If there had been a dozen adjacent saucer magnolias, it's possible the sapsuckers would have ignored them.
We hung an owl decoy in the saucer magnolia. We haven't heard or seen sapsuckers since.
Otis Knox and the white pines he planted. His saucer magnolia is in the background.
Otis has always loved trees. He planted a dozen white pines down here in 1976. He'd brought them up from near his family's home place in the mountains near the little town of Bowen in Powell County, not far from the Red River Gorge. One of the pines spawned a witches broom years later. Nurseryman Karl Klein, from Crestwood, KY, grafted a few pieces of scion wood from the witches broom onto seedling white pines. I named the little tree 'Otis Knox.' I have it planted in the garden. It's nothing remarkable (witches brooms on pine trees being a dime a dozen). But the little pine means a lot to me because Otis had a hand in the planting of the original pines.
Otis loved this land. Rose and I are heirs to his legacy. Besides planting dozens of trees, including oaks, a few black gums, yellowwoods, coffee trees, service berries and redbuds, we have also planted a few magnolias.
Otis asked me a few weeks ago if I'd ever seen a wahoo tree. I wasn't sure what he meant. Was he thinking of the wahoo bush (Euonymous americanus)? He said no.
The fallen leaves of a wahoo tree, or big leaf magnolia, in November.
I'd never heard of the big leaf Magnolia macrophylla being called a wahoo tree, but Otis said this was how it was known around parts of Eastern Kentucky.
He said he'd once brought back a wahoo tree from the mountains and planted it at his current place across the Salt River from us. The tree didn't make it.
Three years ago I planted a one-gallon wahoo tree, or big leaf Magnolia macrophylla, about 30 feet from the damaged saucer magnolia that Otis had planted in 1981. The wahoo tree is a pokey thing. Ours is only three feet tall today but it might eventually grow from 50' to 75' in favorable conditions. Rich, evenly moist, slightly alkaline to acidic soils would be the preferred ones.
I still worry that the saucer magnolia might not make it. I'd imagined the wahoo tree would be its successor, but the saucer magnolia is still hanging in there. It began blooming magnificently on Easter Sunday.
I often think of Otis when I walk by these special magnolias on my way to the barn. One Magnolia has endured cold and drought for 37 years but seldom suffered for lack of attention—too much so from sapsuckers. The other is a pampered newcomer waiting for center stage.
I don't know who will show up, but I hope one day there will be someone else curious about these wonderful trees.
There will be a stone bench waiting next to the crooked corncrib.
Wonderful story! Saucer magnolias are tough trees. We had one in East Lansing, Michigan, which I believe was the only magnolia in or anywhere near East Lansing. The previous owners were determined to push the edge of the hardiness envelope and fill the 3/4 acre lot with plants that had no business in Michigan. Our yard was a field trip destination for Michigan State horticulture students, and the source of my long-standing love for magnolias and roses. So glad you kept the magnolia!
Camille, I'm glad we kept the magnolia, too! Otis came over last week to inspect his planting. He was delighted with all the blooms. But, as happens with many of these deciduous magnolias, his wahoo tree got nailed last night by freezing temperatures.
Thank you, Sara. We've got to get you all out to Salvisa, once the Derby season quiets down.
I call the deciduous Asian Magnolias 'heartbreak trees', because they often start to bloom, then have their flowers killed to brown mush by spring freezes. My neighbor had a typical saucer Magnolia that was about 15′ when it died. She relied on her in-ground irrigation system to water everything, and a sprinkler head had been turned so it missed the tree. She cut it down to a stump, started watering it, and it grew well. After a few years, it was a lovely multi-stemmed shrub, blooming prolifically, actually prettier than the original single trunk tree-form. She was very happy, and learned to water her young woodies with a hose, and not rely on an irrigation system designed for a lawn.
Jacquelyn, yes indeed, the Asian magnolias can be one of many gardening heartaches. Maybe, it's the spring timing. After a long winter, I always hope the blooms will be ignored by frosts. By April, I'm tired of cold weather. The flowers get blasted more often than I'd like, but when they are blooming—my oh my.
Yes, I've never been without one in my garden. I have 'Jane' now, and in the past I've had others of the National Arboretum Little Girls ('Ann' and 'Betty') in my Maryland garden, and they usually bloom after the last frost.
Nice article Allen. When my Magnolia ashei comes into bloom I'll try to remember to send you a picture of it. I got it years ago not long after moving to TN from northern NY. Purchased fromNearly Native Nursery in Central GA. Had to cut it to the ground a few years back after it was attacked by Ambrosia borers. It is back and close to 15 ft tall. Very sparing in seed production , I have had one viable seed in all the years & the seedling is now about 3 ft tall & it bloomed last Spring. M.ashei blooms at an early age. M. macrophylla is the opposite.
Interesting about the Magnolia ashei being quicker to flower. I know the wahoo tree/big leaf Magnolia is slow to bloom. I'm taking the long view and hoping I'll see it in bloom one day if the ambrosia borer doesn't get it first. This nasty little menace is already in southern Kentucky, so I fear it's on the march northwards. Were they really destructive overall? Did they come and go away?
Oh Allen, a beautiful tribute to magnolias. I had high hopes for mine this year and I just about got that thirty minutes of beauty from each one, a Magnolia stellata, 'Jane', and 'Ann'. Every bloom on each opened simultaneously on Thursday in the 80ºtemps and then turned to brown paper after Saturday night's now of 26F. Oops, maybe next year.
Prof. Roush, our magnolia bloom are shot and I'm growing impatient. Snow flurries this morning. High temps around 43 F. The Run for the Roses is less than 3 weeks away. Hard to drink a mint julep when it's this cold.
Let's keep planting, Lorin. I'm with you all the way.


In the US June 30th is the last day to view The Escapist with Damian Lewis as a satellite/cable "Video On Demand" pay-per-view feature under "IFC In Theaters".
The Escapist will screen in Charlotte, North Carolina on July 11th for the "Charlotte Film Society's Saturday Night Cine Club".
The Prince's Trust charity. Thanks again to Ann for the link!
Helen McCrory's new film The Special Relationship will start filming in London on July 20th under the direction of Richard Loncraine; click here for more information.
Alan Sepinwall of the New Jersey Star Ledger has published two more articles in his series on "revisiting Band of Brothers; click on the links below for "The Last Patrol" and "Why We Fight". Thanks to Leah for the links.


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