text:
Is This the Only Way to Avoid War With Iran?
By Daniel R. DePetris, The National Interest
Talking with a friend about a substantive disagreement is hard work. Negotiating with an enemy, however, is a harder thing to pull off. Striking an agreement with an adversary is harder still, something that is simply impossible if both sides are unable to leave their mutual antagonism at the door. In many cases, the lack of trust and the different bottom lines are irreconcilable. Both parties then have no choice but to walk away.
What the United States needs right now with Iran is a negotiation. Washington can no longer rely on third-parties to deliver messages to Iran; a direct line of communication must be established to help avert a tension-filled situation from potentially escalating into a disaster. While there is no guarantee whatsoever that a comprehensive accord between Washington and Tehran can be reached (the odds are somewhere between zero and negligible), Winston Churchill's famous quip that jaw-jaw is better than war-war still very much applies. The world could use a little jaw-jawing between the United States and Iran outside of mutual threats and war-like language.
Donald Trump doesn't want a war with Iran. He reportedly told former Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan exactly that in a meeting at the White House last month. The last thing Trump wants is to immerse the United States into the quicksand of the Middle East with another conflict, one that would make America's eight-year conflict in Iraq look like child's play. A violent conflict would also go down terribly with Trump's political base. And as somebody who prides himself on fulfilling campaign promises—one of which was keeping the United States from plunging into a fourth major military intervention in the region—the politics don't make any sense.
Trump has also signaled his affinity for talking to everyone and anyone. He proved that yet again last weekend, when the president tweeted an invite to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and met with him for about an hour at the Demilitarized Zone. It doesn't matter if you have a special relationship with the United States or if you are a historic enemy: Trump has no problem picking up the phone or setting up a summit. Deep down, it's likely the president dreams of penning a deal with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that makes him look like the master-class dealmaker he always claims to be. Khamenei has already rejected an overture from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on behalf of Trump, viewing it as an insincere ploy from someone who pulled the United States out of a multilateral nuclear agreement Tehran was complying with. Things may be happening behind the scenes through various intermediaries, but in terms of public perception, a round of U.S.-Iran talks is about as likely as Trump and Joe Biden becoming best friends.
Part of this dilemma is on the back of Khamenei, who as an old, hardline cleric regards the United States as a duplicitous snake ready to pounce the second Iran turns its back. But much of the fault also lies with Trump, who is confused about what he hopes to accomplish from a negotiation, befuddled about why the Iranians haven't already cried uncle after seeing their oil exports tank to 300,000 barrels per day in June, and who is so obsessed with strength that he stubbornly refuses to water down his maximalist demands.
The president, goaded by his dogmatic national security advisers, has a curious theory of negotiation. Trump's best-selling Art of the Deal aside, he believes that everything is a contest of wills. All you need to do to win is deploy all of your leverage, sit back, and wait for the other side to feel enough pain that it comes crawling to the table with a surrender document ready to be signed. Negotiations are therefore not exercises in compromise, but a way to extract complete capitulation from your opponent.
This has yet to work on Iran. It will never work on Iran. If anything, maximum pressure has only pushed the Iranians into a corner. Contrary to Trump's expectations, Iran has been fighting back in multiple ways. In its latest act of defiance, Tehran breached the 300 kg cap on low-enriched uranium allowed under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Instead of cowering in fear, the Iranians are lashing out.
The longer Trump believes he can wait Tehran out, the more likely the world should anticipate more of the mysterious tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman that happened last month—to which Iran is believed to be the mastermind. The alternative is obvious for anyone who cares to prevent a spiral of escalation—the Trump administration must stop searching for surrender and start wheeling-and-dealing.
Diplomacy is difficult. But war, either deliberate or unintended, is worse.
Daniel R. DePetris is a columnist for the Washington Examiner and the American Conservative and a frequent contributor to the National Interest.
Image: DVIDS.
This piece was originally published by The National Interest
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Blair hasn't been back here for years.
Alvin won't drive at night.
Jill makes a lot more money than Kenton.
Alf isn't very good at tennis.
Didn't you hear what Meeks just said?
Gunnar is going to sing us something.
Danny accepted all of their gifts.
Henry appeared out of nowhere to rescue her, like a knight in shining armor.
I couldn't let King know the truth.
I'd really like to know what Calvin's secret is.
Lucius is no longer living in Boston.
Giles walked back into the hotel.
Debi is an attractive guy.
Jakob majored in literature at the university.
Dylan told Dieter where to sit.
Arlene will help me clean my room.
Kelvin is on the lacrosse team.
Lorien didn't plan on running into anyone he knew.
As her car hit the lamp post, Jon broke both legs, and her head and arms were badly cut up as her body went partway through the windshield.
Jaime wrapped his arm around me.
Grace is happy traveling by himself.
Shari died without having ever seen Ti again, or known what had become of her.
Conrad had the munchies, but since there was nothing in the house to eat, he went to the convenience store not too far from where he lived.
What's Frank so angry about?
Kay is quite shy, isn't he?
Sherman is away on assignment.
Dylan shouldn't have done that.
Kenneth needed to feel safe.
Lars has been sending flowers to Sanche.
Samir didn't know how to react to that.


BLOOMINGTON, Ind. (Fort Wayne's NBC) — Two Fort Wayne men face murder charges for a shooting Thursday night near Indiana University.
Police say a fight broke out, and shots were fired.
21 year old Skylar Maupin was shot several times.
Once outside, police say one of the suspects fired shots into the apartment, injuring another man.
Maupin died at a hospital.
Police arrested Jamarius Turnage and Cleodis Collins, Junior.
Both are from Fort Wayne.
Police say this all began when the two showed up at the apartment complex to buy marijuana but decided to steal it, instead.
The second victim was struck in the shoulder and is expected to be okay.


The term social and emotional wellbeing is used by many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to describe the social, emotional, spiritual, and cultural wellbeing of a person. The term recognises that connection to land, culture, spirituality, family, and community are important to people and can impact on their wellbeing. It also recognises that a person's social and emotional wellbeing is influenced by policies and past events.
Another term that is often used when discussing wellbeing is mental health. Mental health is a term that has been used a lot, mainly by non-Indigenous people, to describe how people think and feel, and how they cope with and take part in everyday life. People are often thought of as being mentally healthy when they don't have a mental illness (when people become unwell in the mind and it affects their thinking, feelings, and behaviour).
Many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people believe that mental health and mental illness focus too much on problems and don't properly describe all the factors that make up and influence wellbeing. Because of this, most Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people prefer the term social and emotional wellbeing as it fits well with a holistic view of health. The best way to understand these different terms is to think of mental health and mental illness as part of a person's social and emotional wellbeing.
What are the factors impacting on the social and emotional wellbeing of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people?
There are many different factors that can impact on a person's social and emotional wellbeing. These can range from normal everyday stresses to major life events.
For Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, a number of events in the past have had a serious ongoing impact on their social and emotional wellbeing. These include dispossession from their lands (loss of lands), and the impact of the policies and actions that followed, such as the forced removal of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children from their families and homelands.
Professor Helen Milroy, an Indigenous psychiatrist, describes three important themes to come from an analysis of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history. They include: 'the denial of humanity, the denial of existence and the denial of identity' .
Also of importance to the social and emotional wellbeing of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are the general disadvantages experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children and adults in the areas of education, employment, income, and their overall position in Australian society. These areas, which are some of the important 'social determinants of health', are linked with many other external stresses. These stresses include serious illnesses and disability, higher levels of death in the family/community, overcrowded houses, substance use problems, violence, discrimination and racism, trouble with police, and being sent to jail and/or having a family member who has been sent to jail.
What are the mental health problems impacting on the social and emotional wellbeing of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people?
substance use disorders – these disorders occur when a person's use of alcohol and/or other substances causes them problems but they continue to take the substance anyway.
Only a trained and qualified health professional can confirm whether someone has a mental illness. This decision is based on the person meeting a strict set of criteria (the person must show a certain number of signs/symptoms for a certain period of time). It is common for people to show some signs of a mental illness but not enough for them to have a mental illness. It is important that these people are also offered help and support because the signs/symptoms could get worse and really affect their social and emotional wellbeing.
While these problems are not mental illnesses, they can be a sign or symptom of a mental illness and have a serious impact on a person's social and emotional wellbeing.
How do you measure social and emotional wellbeing?
As with health generally, it is very difficult to provide an overall 'measure' of social and emotional wellbeing. Because of this, measurement tends to focus on the reasons why people are not mentally healthy, and the factors contributing to the reasons why their mental health is not so good.
the impact of mental health problems, including death.
How common are mental health problems among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people?
The exact extent of mental health problems among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people is not known, but there is evidence that: according to the 2012-13 Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait islander Health Survey (AATSIHS), almost one-third of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults reported feeling high or very high levels of psychological distress in the previous year .
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people who had only a year 9 education were more likely to experience high or very high levels of psychological distress compared with those who were educated to year 12 (34% compared with 26%).
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people who were unemployed were more likely to experience high or very high levels of psychological distress compared with those who were employed (42% compared with 22%).
around half of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people rated their satisfaction with life as at least 8 out of 10 (Derived from ).
'Mental and behavioural disorders' is the term used to classify different types of mental illnesses. 'Mental and behavioural disorders' were responsible for almost 20,000 hospital admissions of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in 2015-16 (around 4% of all hospital admissions of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people) . Hospital admissions for 'mental and behavioural disorders' were almost two times higher for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people than for non-Indigenous people.
hospital admissions for 'schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders' were almost three times higher for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people than non-Indigenous people during 2013-15.
Please note the term 'mental illness' has been used in place of 'mental disorder' and 'psychological disorder' because it is a more common term.