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Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?
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John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration Of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers 2008-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2008s-28, CIRANO.
Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
Brown, Jeffrey R. & Pennacchi, George G., 2016. "Discounting pension liabilities: funding versus value," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 254-284, July.
Jeffrey R. Brown & George Pennacchi, 2015. "Discounting Pension Liabilities: Funding versus Value," NBER Chapters,in: The Impact of Reforms of State Retirement Plans, pages 254-284 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Jeffrey R. Brown & George G. Pennacchi, 2015. "Discounting Pension Liabilities: Funding versus Value," NBER Working Papers 21276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 379-431.
Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2015. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, pages 379-431 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2015. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Working Papers 21260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Expectations and Investment," Working Paper 250941, Harvard University OpenScholar.
Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Expectations and investment," BIS Working Papers 562, Bank for International Settlements.
Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Forecast combination, non-linear dynamics, and the macroeconomy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(3), pages 653-686, March.
Christopher Gibbs, 2015. "Forecast Combination, Non-linear Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 2015-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/17, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
Lee, Kevin & Olekalns, Nils & Shields, Kalvinder K, 2009. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available," CEPR Discussion Papers 7426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2008. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: a contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Working Paper Series 926, European Central Bank.
Roberto A. De Santis & Carlo A. Favero & Barbara Roffia, 2012. "Euro Area Money Demand and International Portfolio Allocation: A Contribution to Assessing Risks to Price Stability," Working Papers 432, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
De Santis, Roberto A & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2012. "Euro Area Money Demand and International Portfolio Allocation: A Contribution to Assessing Risks to Price Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 8957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2008. "Data Revisions, Gradualism, and US Inflation Pressure in Real Time," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0816, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
Maarten van Oordt, 2017. "Which Model to Forecast the Target Rate?," Staff Working Papers 17-60, Bank of Canada.
Clements, Michael P., 2018. "Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 181-198.
Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Christian Wolff & Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2009. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-01, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
Hamid Baghestani, 2016. "Interest rate movements and US consumers' inflation forecast errors: is there a link?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(3), pages 623-630, July.
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Jan Christoph Ruelke & Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel, 2011. "Do Professional Forecasters Trust in Taylor-Type Rules? - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Poll," Post-Print hal-00743770, HAL.
Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2009. "Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200906, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
Dovern, Jonas & Fritsche, Ulrich & Slacalek, Jiri, 2009. "Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries," Working Paper Series 1082, European Central Bank.
Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5790, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006. "Do actions speak louder than words? Household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,26, Deutsche Bundesbank.
Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019. "Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 638-657.
Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2014. "Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities," Economics Working Papers 1416, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2017.
Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2015. "Alternative Tests for Correct Specification of Conditional Predictive Densities," Working Papers 758, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
Arturo Ormeño, 2011. "Using Survey Data on Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 3552, CESifo Group Munich.
Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2012. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 358-367, January.
Chan, Joshua C C & Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W, 2010. "Time Varying Dimension Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-33, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2010. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Working Paper series 44_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
Joshua C C Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzales & Rodney W Strachan, 2011. "Time Varying Dimension Models," CAMA Working Papers 2011-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
Joshua Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2011. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Working Papers 1116, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
Joshua C.C. Chan & Garry Koop & Roberto Leon Gonzales & Rodney W. Strachan, 2010. "Time Varying Dimension Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2010-523, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
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Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
Benjamin Wong, 2014. "Inflation Expectations and How it Explains the Inflationary Impact of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," CAMA Working Papers 2014-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do inflation expectations propagate the inflationary impact of real oil price shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan survey," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Apr 2018.
Jongen, R. & Muller, A. & Verschoor, W.F.C., 2012. "Using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 148-169.
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Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Topa, Giorgio, 2011. "Expectations of inflation: The biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 834-845.
Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Giorgio Topa, 2011. "Expectations of inflation: the biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices," Staff Reports 489, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Matheson, Troy D., 2010. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 304-314, January.
Troy Matheson, 2007. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: the importance of business opinion surveys," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the Greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve's Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Post-Print hal-01087522, HAL.
Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9, Sciences Po.
Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2016. "Forecasting with a Random Walk," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(6), pages 539-564, December.
Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?," Economic Research Papers 270770, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 954, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp103, IIIS.
Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International capital flows and U.S. interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 840, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2018. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay ? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data," Working Paper Research 355, National Bank of Belgium.
repec:eee:dyncon:v:86:y:2018:i:c:p:72-94 is not listed on IDEAS
Sunil Kumar, 2016. "Latent class analyisis for reliable measure of inflation expectation in the indian public," Papers 1603.01397, arXiv.org.
Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010. "Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the "Fed Model"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 278-294, April.
Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the "Fed Model"," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Inflation and the Stock Market:Understanding the "Fed Model"," NBER Working Papers 15024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Working Paper series 42_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos & Elena Andreou, 2012. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," 2012 Meeting Papers 1196, Society for Economic Dynamics.
Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 09-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
Carlos Capistrán & Gabriel López-Moctezuma, 2008. "Experts´ Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers 2008-11, Banco de México.
Raffaella Giacomini & Vasiliki Skreta & Javier Turen, 2015. "Models, Inattention and Expectation Updates," Discussion Papers 1602, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
Giacomini, Raffaella & Skreta, Vasiliki & Turen, Javier, 2016. "Models, inattention and expectation updates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86245, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
Giacomini, Raffaella & Skreta, Vasiliki & Turén, Javier, 2015. "Models, Inattention and Expectation Updates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11004, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Dotsey, Michael & Fujita, Shigeru & Stark, Tom, 2011. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 11-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
Carlos Medel, 2016. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Globalisation, Combination, and Accuracy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 791, Central Bank of Chile.
Medel, Carlos A., 2017. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Globalisation, Combination, and Accuracy," MPRA Paper 78439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Yaniv Konchitchki & Yan Luo & Mary L. Z. Ma & Feng Wu, 2016. "Accounting-based downside risk, cost of capital, and the macroeconomy," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-36, March.
Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2016. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 22839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2017. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
Agnes Kovacs & Orazio Attanasio, 2017. "Euler Equations, Subjective Expectations and Income Shocks," Economics Series Working Papers 820, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010. "Macro expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-064, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
Christian D. Dick & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010. "Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2010-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Hemert, Otto Van & Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, 2009. "Mortgage timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 292-324, August.
Ralph S.J. Koijen & Otto Van Hemert & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2007. "Mortgage Timing," NBER Working Papers 13361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Andreas Karatahansopoulos & Georgios Sermpinis & Jason Laws & Christian Dunis, 2014. "Modelling and Trading the Greek Stock Market with Gene Expression and Genetic Programing Algorithms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 596-610, December.
Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2013. "Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 199-212.
Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2013. "Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities," Economics Working Papers 1368, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sehkposyan, 2013. "Conditional Predictive Density Evaluation in the Presence of Instabilities," Working Papers 688, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
Leo Krippner & Michelle Lewis, 2018. "Real-time forecasting with macro-finance models in the presence of a zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Magdalena Grothe & Aidan Meyler, 2018. "Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(1), pages 171-188, January.
Grothe, Magdalena & Meyler, Aidan, 2015. "Inflation forecasts: Are market-based and survey-based measures informative?," MPRA Paper 66982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Meyler, Aidan & Grothe, Magdalena, 2015. "Inflation forecasts: Are market-based and survey-based measures informative?," Working Paper Series 1865, European Central Bank.
Paul Hubert & Mirza Harun, 2014. "Inflation expectation dynamics: the role of past present and forward looking information," Sciences Po publications 2014-07, Sciences Po.
Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2014. "Inflation expectation dynamics:the role of past, present and forward looking information," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2014-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Counties," Mechonomics mechonomics7, Socionet.
Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries," MPRA Paper 14557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Discussion Paper 2012-072, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
Manzanares, Andrés & García, Juan Angel, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 836, European Central Bank.
Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 331-371, July.
Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Carlos Medel, 2016. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 785, Central Bank of Chile.
Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2018. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1447-1491, December.
Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2017. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 23304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Higgins, Patrick & Zha, Tao & Zhong, Wenna, 2016. "Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-61.
Higgins, Patrick C. & Zha, Tao & Zhong, Karen, 2016. "Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Patrick Higgins & Tao Zha & Karen Zhong, 2016. "Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 22402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 867-886, August.
Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Paper series 34_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-40, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2011. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Papers 1119, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-113, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
Edward S. Knotek Ii & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 931-968, August.
Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2014. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Daniela Kubudi & José Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
Everaert, Gerdie, 2014. "A panel analysis of the fisher effect with an unobserved I(1) world real interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 198-210.
G. Everaert, 2012. "A Panel Analysis of the Fisher Effect with an Unobserved I(1) World Real Interest Rate," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/782, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
Bharat Trehan, 2015. "Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 207-222, February.
Bharat Trehan, 2009. "Survey measures of expected inflation and the inflation process," Working Paper Series 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2009. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 375-398, June.
Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 79, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Discussion Paper Series 0801, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0632, Economics, The University of Manchester.
Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2010. "Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 5, pages 183-229 Elsevier.
Mankiw, N Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2010. "Imperfect Information and Aggregate supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 7711, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2010. "Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply," NBER Working Papers 15773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Ehling, Paul & Gallmeyer, Michael & Heyerdahl-Larsen, Christian & Illeditsch, Philipp, 2018. "Disagreement about inflation and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 459-484.
Paul Ehling & Michael Gallmeyer & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2015. "Disagreement about inflation and the yield curve," Working Papers 1532, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
Haensly, Paul J., 2016. "Is a pure TIPS strategy truly risk free?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-20.
Konchitchki, Yaniv & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2014. "Accounting earnings and gross domestic product," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 76-88.
Croushore, Dean & Marsten, Katherine, 2014. "The continuing power of the yield spread in forecasting recessions," Working Papers 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
Ina Nurmalia Kurniati, 2015. "Forecasting Growth Of Third Party Funds," Working Papers WP/10/2015, Bank Indonesia.
Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovička & Paul Ho, 2016. "Identifying Ambiguity Shocks in Business Cycle Models Using Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 22225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Jaroslav Borovicka, 2016. "Identifying ambiguity shocks in business cycle models using survey data," 2016 Meeting Papers 1615, Society for Economic Dynamics.
Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On The Rand: Determinants Of The South African Exchange Rate," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 425-441, September.
Frankel, Jeffrey, 2007. "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series rwp07-015, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate," CID Working Papers 139, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 13050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
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James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 173-220.
James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling Inflation After the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.
Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 127-145.
Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-337, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2016. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Staff Working Papers 16-5, Bank of Canada.
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Charles Engel & John H Rogers, 2009. "Expected Consumption Growth from Cross-Country Surveys: Implications for Assessing International Capital Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 543-573, August.
Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2008. "Expected consumption growth from cross-country surveys: implications for assessing international capital markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 949, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Yasutomo Murasawa, 2013. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval-Coded Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(4), pages 602-623, August.
MURASAWA Yasutomo, 2010. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval-Coded Data," ESRI Discussion paper series 236, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 455-467, June.
Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael, 2007. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: longer-term, nonlinear orientation on PPP," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-376, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
Miguel Belmonte & Gary Koop, 2014. "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time-Varying Parameter Regression Models," Advances in Econometrics,in: Bayesian Model Comparison, volume 34, pages 45-69 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
Miguel Belmonte & Gary Koop, 2013. "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time-Varying Parameter Regression Models," Working Papers 1302, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
Miguel, Belmonte & Gary, Koop, 2013. "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-34, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
Benjamin Beckers & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Dirk Ulbricht, 2017. "Reading between the Lines: Using Media to Improve German Inflation Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1665, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.
Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Antonio Moreno, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," NBER Working Papers 17090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Baele, L.T.M. & Bekaert, G.R.J. & Cho, S. & Inghelbrecht, K. & Moreno, A., 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Other publications TiSEM e92a1993-778e-4ce2-b603-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Geert Bekaert & Antonio Moreno & Lieven Baele, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," 2011 Meeting Papers 817, Society for Economic Dynamics.
L. Baele & G. Bekaert & S. Cho & K. Inghelbrecht & A. Moreno, 2013. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/870, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
Lieven Baele & et al., 2012. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Faculty Working Papers 03/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
Szyszko Magdalena, 2015. "Inflation Forecasts Versus Shaping Inflation Expectations. Comparative Analysis / Prognoza Inflacji Wobec Kształtowania Oczekiwań Inflacyjnych. Analiza Porównawcza," Comparative Economic Research, Sciendo, vol. 18(4), pages 139-156, December.
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Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-172/4, Tinbergen Institute.
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Michael J. Lamla & Lena Draeger & Damjan Pfajfar, 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," KOF Working papers 13-345, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
Lamla, Michael & Dräger, Lena & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2015. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113170, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla & Damjan Pfajfar, 2014. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201401, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Discussion Paper 2013-063, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
Piotr Białowolski, 2016. "The influence of negative response style on survey-based household inflation expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 509-528, March.
Ricardo Gimeno & José Manuel Marqués, 2009. "Extraction of financial market expectations about inflation and interest rates from a liquid market," Working Papers 0906, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2014. "Microfounded Forecasting," Working Papers Series 372, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Issler, João Victor, 2015. "Microfounded forecasting," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 766, FGV EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process; A Simple Framework and New Facts," IMF Working Papers 12/296, International Monetary Fund.
Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," NBER Working Papers 16537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
Daniela Bragoli & Michele Modugno, 2016. "A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 183-205, July.
Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," Economics Working Papers 1084, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2009.
Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 7597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2008. "Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation," Working Papers 08-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2011. "Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation," Working Papers 11-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
Liu, Dandan & Smith, Julie K., 2014. "Inflation forecasts and core inflation measures: Where is the information on future inflation?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 133-137.
Refet S. Gürkaynak & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2018. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises," NBER Working Papers 25016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kisacikoglu, Burçin & Wright, Jonathan H., 2018. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises," CEPR Discussion Papers 13153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Refet S. Gürkaynak & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2018. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises," CESifo Working Paper Series 7229, CESifo Group Munich.
Ciccarelli, Matteo & Altavilla, Carlo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 846, European Central Bank.
Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "The Risk Premium of Gold," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-616, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, "undated". "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 84656, Harvard University OpenScholar.
Mavroeidis, Sophocles & Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel & Stock, James H., 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 22795845, Harvard University Department of Economics.
Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2012. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 18357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 519-544.
Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2011. "Time-variation in term premia: International survey-based evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 605-622, June.
Christian Wolff & Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2009. "Time-Variation in Term Permia: International Survey-Based Evidence," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-02, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2014. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-04, Henley Business School, Reading University.
Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2017. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 585-602, June.
Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2013. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," CAMA Working Papers 2013-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2015. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Discussion Paper Series 1502, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
García, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2010. "Inflation risks and inflation risk premia," Working Paper Series 1162, European Central Bank.
Andrade, Philippe & Fourel, Valère & Ghysels, Eric & Idier, Julien, 2014. "The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 648-659.
Andrade, P. & Fourel, V. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, I., 2013. "The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area," Working papers 437, Banque de France.
Aruoba, S. Boragan, 2016. "Term structures of inflation expectations and real interest rates," Working Papers 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 20 Sep 2016.
Stefania D'Amico & Don H Kim & Min Wei, 2008. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," BIS Working Papers 248, Bank for International Settlements.
Stefania D'Amico & Don H. Kim & Min Wei, 2010. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
D'Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2014. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), revised 19 Feb 2016.
João Valle e Azevedo, 2011. "Rational vs. professional forecasts," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Quantifying survey expectations: A critical review and generalization of the Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-62.
Kenneth West & Ka-fu Wong & Stanislav Anatolyev, 2009. "Instrumental Variables Estimation of Heteroskedastic Linear Models Using All Lags of Instruments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 441-467.
West,K.D. & Wong,K.-F. & Anatolyev,S., 2001. "Instrumental variables estimation of heteroskedastic linear models using all lags of instruments," Working papers 20, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
Kenneth D. West & Ka-fu Wong & Stanislav Anatolyev, 2007. "Instrumental Variables Estimation of Heteroskedastic Linear Models Using All Lags of Instruments," NBER Working Papers 13134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Kenneth D. West & Ka-fu Wong & Stanislav Anatolyev, 2007. "Instrumental Variables Estimation of Heteroskedastic Linear Models Using All Lags of Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Aruoba, S. Boragan, 2014. "Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Staff Report 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Andrés González & Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," CREATES Research Papers 2009-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
Hubrich, Kirstin & González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2011. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," Working Paper Series 1363, European Central Bank.
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Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2018. "Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, And Information Rigidities," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 2158-2176, October.
Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2018. "Monetary policy shocks, expectations and information rigidities," Chemnitz Economic Papers 019, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology.
Czudaj, Robert & Beckmann, Joscha, 2018. "Monetary policy shocks, expectations and information rigidities," Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181573, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2009. "Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?," MPRA Paper 14387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Capistrán, Carlos & Constandse, Christian & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2010. "Multi-horizon inflation forecasts using disaggregated data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 666-677, May.
Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
Chrystalleni Aristidou & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US," Discussion Papers 2015/13, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
Modugno, Michele & Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and news decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1369-1384.
Michele Modugno & Baris Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
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Tomek Katzur & Laura Spierdijk, 2013. "Stock returns and inflation risk: economic versus statistical evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(13), pages 1123-1136, July.
Jonathan H. Wright, 2009. "Forecasting US inflation by Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 131-144.
Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging," International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2010. "Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economics data," Working Paper 2010/29, Norges Bank.
Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economic data," Working Papers 2012_16, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-003/4, Tinbergen Institute.
Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2011. "The Formation Of Inflation Perceptions: Some Empirical Facts For European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 155-188, May.
Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2008. "The Formation of Inflation Perceptions - Some Empirical Facts for European Countries," KOF Working papers 08-204, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2015. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
Linlin Niu & Xiu Xu & Ying Chen, 2015. "An Adaptive Approach to Forecasting Three Key Macroeconomic Variables for Transitional China," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah, 2017. "Predicting US CPI-Inflation in the presence of asymmetries, persistence, endogeneity, and conditional heteroscedasticity," Working Papers 026, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
Richhild Moessner & Feng Zhu & Colin Ellis, 2011. "Measuring disagreement in UK consumer and central bank inflation forecasts," BIS Working Papers 339, Bank for International Settlements.
Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-42.
James Yetman & Gregor W. Smith, 2009. "Consumption And Real Exchange Rates In Professional Forecasts," Working Paper 1195, Economics Department, Queen's University.
Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Michael B Devereux & Gregor W Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," BIS Working Papers 295, Bank for International Settlements.
Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Martinsen, Kjetil & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Wulfsberg, Fredrik, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 65-77.
Kjetil Martinsen & Francesco Ravazzolo & Fredrik Wulfsberg, 2011. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," Working Paper 2011/04, Norges Bank.
Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is Chinese monetary policy forward-looking?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
Don H Kim, 2007. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," BIS Working Papers 240, Bank for International Settlements.
Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания
[A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2013. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
Chava, Sudheer & Gallmeyer, Michael & Park, Heungju, 2015. "Credit conditions and stock return predictability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 117-132.
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Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2008. "The Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 6809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Philippe Mueller & Mikhail Chernov, 2008. "The Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," 2008 Meeting Papers 346, Society for Economic Dynamics.
Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, September.
Christian Seiler, 2012. "On the Robustness of the Balance Statistics with respect to Nonresponse," ifo Working Paper Series 126, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
Hossein Hassani & Abdol S. Soofi & Anatoly Zhigljavsky, 2013. "Predicting inflation dynamics with singular spectrum analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 743-760, June.
Pablo Pincheira Brown & Álvaro García Marín, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation in Chile With an Accurate Benchmark," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 514, Central Bank of Chile.
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Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2013. "Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of U.S. inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 469-478.
Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Forecast Changes in Liquidity? An Out-of-sample Study on the Order-driven Stock Markets in Scandinavia," CAFO Working Papers 2009:10, Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics.
Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 126-162, October.
Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Why are target interest rate changes so persistent?," Working Papers 106, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," NBER Working Papers 16707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter H. Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Papers (Old Series) 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers No 8/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
Krüger, Fabian & Clark, Todd E. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113077, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
Krueger, Fabian & Clark, Todd E. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers (Old Series) 1439, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, March.
Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2013. "Term Structure Forecasting: No-arbitrage Restrictions Versus Large Information set," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
Christian Seiler, 2013. "Nonresponse in Business Tendency Surveys: Theoretical Discourse and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52.
Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 505-536, May.
Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?," Staff Reports 509, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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Gregor W. Smith, 2007. "Pooling Forecasts In Linear Rational Expectations Models," Working Paper 1129, Economics Department, Queen's University.
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Nibbering, Didier & Paap, Richard & van der Wel, Michel, 2018. "What do professional forecasters actually predict?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 288-311.
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Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April.
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Elmar Mertens & James M Nason, 2015. "Inflation and Professional Forecast Dynamics: An Evaluation of Stickiness, Persistence, and Volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2017. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2017-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2018. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: an evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," BIS Working Papers 713, Bank for International Settlements.
Ana Pereira & João Valle e Azevedo, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates," Working Papers w201024, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2014. "Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?," ifo Working Paper Series 182, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
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Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
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Shuyun May Li & Roshan Perera & Kalvinder Shields, 2013. "Misspecification, Identification or Measurement? Another Look at the Price Puzzle," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1169, The University of Melbourne.
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Jean-Baptiste, Frédo, 2012. "Forecasting with the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 811-813.
Christopher G. Gibbs & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Conditionally Optimal Weights and Forward-Looking Approaches to Combining Forecasts," Discussion Papers 2017-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
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Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2014. "Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland," Working Papers 2014-11, Swiss National Bank.
Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2010. "The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 70-92, January.
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James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
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Michael H. Breitner & Christian Dunis & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim & Christopher Neely & Georgios Sermpinis & Georgios Sermpinis & Charalampos Stasinakis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoul, 2014. "Inflation and Unemployment Forecasting with Genetic Support Vector Regression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 471-487, September.
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Bryan, Michael F. & Meyer, Brent & Parker, Nicholas B., 2014. "The inflation expectations of firms: what do they look like, are they accurate, and do they matter?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, revised 01 Jan 2015.
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Travis J. Berge, 2017. "Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
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Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2011. "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 1120, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2012. "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectation," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-46, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations," Working Paper series 14_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Analyzing the relationships between survey forecasts for different variables and countries," Discussion Papers 76, Aboa Centre for Economics.
Luis Gil‐Alana & Antonio Moreno & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2012. "Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 524-539, September.
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Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
Anne Pedersen & Alex Weissensteiner & Rolf Poulsen, 2013. "Financial planning for young households," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 205(1), pages 55-76, May.
Christian Seiler, 2015. "On the robustness of balance statistics with respect to nonresponse," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2014(2), pages 45-62.
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Lillian Kamal, 2014. "Do GAP Models Still have a Role to Play in Forecasting Inflation?," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(3), pages 1-12.
Carlos Capistrán & Christian Constandse & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "Using Seasonal Models to Forecast Short-Run Inflation in Mexico," Working Papers 2009-05, Banco de México.
Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & van Rooij, Maarten & Teppa, Federica & de Vos, Klaas, 2017. "Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-58.
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El-Shagi, Makram, 2009. "Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
Olesya V. Grishchenko & Jing-zhi Huang, 2012. "Inflation risk premium: evidence from the TIPS market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
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