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Posts Tagged 'Apple'
Posted: May 15, 2020 in AAPL, America, Apple, Apple TV, Business, China, Consumers, Farros, iOS, iPhone, NASDAQ, Royal, Royal Blog, Stocks, Technology and Business, Trump
Tags: AAPL, America, Apple, China, farros, Reuters, royal, Royal Blog, Royal Farros, Trump
This is not a Reuters headline you want to wake up to… being put on a Chinese "unreliable entity list."
Looks like we're heading for a showdown between everyone's favorite American president and everyone's favorite Chinese Communist Party.
And, unfortunately, Apple (AAPL) may be caught in the middle.
Posted: May 13, 2020 in AAPL, America, Apple, Business, Facebook, Farros, NASDAQ, Royal, Royal Blog, Stocks, Technology and Business
Tags: AAPL, Amazon, AMZN, Apple, Facebook, farros, FB, GOOG, Google, Microsoft, MSFT, royal, Royal Blog, Royal Farros
Many years ago, someone termed the new leadership in NASDAQ "FANG"… Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google. Essentially the best of the new tech.
Over the last few years, that morphed into "FAAMG"… Apple and Microsoft got let into the group. While elder statesmen, there is no doubt that they deserve to be part of tech's elite.
So powerful is this group that just those five stocks represent 20% of NASDAQ movements. That is incredible, if not incredibly unbalanced.
And it's the performance of these five companies that have kept the NASDAQ index from falling like other popular indexes around the world.
For four out of the five companies, the performance has been merited.
We all have to stay at home and have things delivered to us? Geez, could it get any better for Amazon (AMZN)?
We all have to stay at home and use the cloud to do pretty much everything in our lives… like work… school… socializing… entertainment? That's great news for cloud-based leaders like Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOG).
So why am I separating Apple (AAPL) from the herd? After all, our mobile device is absolutely indispensable, right?
Yes, but will people without jobs… without income… scared and uncertain when the crisis will be over… line up for new iPhones come this fall?
That is, if there's even an Apple Store open to line up in front of.
But it's not just me. The other day I shared a KeyBanc's report that iPhone sales in April have declined -77%.
No other FAAMG's business is taking a hit like this… to the contrary, all the other FAAMG's businesses are being helped by the crisis.
It's not Apple's fault that the entire world just stopped. But it is investors' fault if they invest in Apple right now. Because — right now — Apple is getting gutted.
So why is AAPL enjoying the same stock success as these others? To borrow a phrase from a past crisis: Irrational exuberance.
Ultimately reality wins.
Posted: May 11, 2020 in AAPL, Apple, Business, Farros, NASDAQ, Royal, Royal Blog, Stocks, Technology and Business
Tags: AAPL, Apple, farros, iPhone, Keybanc, royal, Royal Blog, Royal Farros, ZeroHedge
Another harsh Apple headline:
iPhone Sales Crash 77% In April, Hammered By COVID-19 Lockdowns
This is from a KeyBanc Capital Markets report, using internal credit card data, as reported by ZeroHedge.
Here's the mind-boggling chart. Notice there is no "black bar" for April 2020 store revenues. Uh, oh.
Another uh, oh: That light gray bar for April 2020 is the same size as March 2020 — meaning no growth in online sales month-to-month — and is noticeably smaller than April 2019 online sales.
So, so much for Apple's online sales picking up the slack for their closed retail outlets.
There's data, in no black or white!
So how in the world could Apple continue sprinting towards an already inflated all-time high?
That's the real mind-boggling question.
Posted: May 4, 2020 in AAPL, Apple, Business, Farros, iOS, iPhone, Royal, Royal Blog, Stocks, Technology and Business
Tags: AAPL, Apple, farros, IDC, royal, Royal Blog, Royal Farros, ZeroHedge
Well, that's not a good headline. More evidence that, in the short term, AAPL may have too much of a premium built in.
Here's the link to ZeroHedge's take on the new IDC global smartphone report.
Posted: May 3, 2020 in AAPL, Apple, Business, Farros, Royal, Royal Blog, Stocks, Technology and Business
Tags: AAPL, Apple, farros, royal, Royal Blog, Royal Farros
Everyone loves to talk about how much cash AAPL has…
… I wonder how many people realize how much debt Apple has to offset that cash?
Almost $120 billion worth. Like 60% of their cash horde, which makes that cash pile quite a bit smaller than most think.
Posted: May 2, 2020 in AAPL, Apple, Business, Farros, iPhone, Royal, Royal Blog, Stocks, Technology and Business
Commenting on Apple's financials is like complaining after someone just bowled a 300. They really are perfect.
So, now that I've made that disclaimer, I'm going to comment on Apple's financials. :)
Well, not so much their financials… as much as their valuation as determined by their financials. Because I think they suggests Apple has overheated.
A long time ago, the rule was your P/E should be about your growth rate. Primarily earnings, but people applied this to revenue growth, too, given that earnings was sometimes impacted by operating initiatives.
So, if you were growing earnings around 10% a year… or revenues around 10% a year… you should have about a 10 P/E.
Like everything these days, that's also been inflated. Or ignored. Or convoluted due to a variety of "financial engineering" things. People rationalize inflating via the term, "multiple expansion." But regardless of creative justification, it's still a grounding rule-of-thumb that offers some perspective.
How does all this apply to Apple?
AAPL's P/E is just over 23.
Over the last few years, AAPL's average earnings growth was about 14.5%. AAPL's average revenue growth was about 7%.
See the problem?
On either measure, AAPL is overvalued by a good chunk. Sticking with just earnings (the higher percentage), that suggests AAPL should be trading around $200 per share.
Pre-pandemic, Apple's Q1 earnings were up 19% comparing like quarters. (Revs were up 9%.) Still below P/E, but at least you can see that earnings growth was within spitting distance of it.
Post-pandemic, Apple's Q2 earnings were up 4%. (Revs essentially flat.) Now that's way below P/E.
But here's the bottomline: The combined earnings growth of 14% for the first half of the fiscal year doesn't account for the fact the next few quarters are going to look more like Q2 than Q1. Due to the pandemic, earnings and revenue growth at Apple HAVE SLOWED. For real.
And my point? The shares are priced like nothing's happened… for an immediate snapback… but the numbers are already saying this isn't happening.
Heck, even the company said this isn't happening on their conference call.
Using my old P/E guideline, AAPL could theoretically be valued around $100 per share.
Now, before anyone thinks I'm a stock-hating crazy or something, I don't believe that will happen. Apple is one of the most phenomenal businesses on the planet. They are so big — and so well managed — and have so many levers — that of course they would make adjustments to their business before that happened.
For example, they could cut a lot of costs. Duh.
Or, if their hardware business ever sucks too much wind, they could just spin-out their services businesses, which continues to grow impressively through this crisis.
You might say that they would never break up their eco-system… but, believe me, it's a lot more common in business than you might think. Usually goes under the term "monopoly."
You might also say that Apple is just too big to have such a puny valuation. But there are lots of HUGE companies with puny valuations. For example, massive distributors with tiny earnings.
So, while I'm not saying AAPL is going to $100, the thought that it theoretically could gives me comfort saying AAPL — in the short term — should be trading closer to $200 than $300.
Posted: May 1, 2020 in AAPL, Apple, Business, Consumers, Farros, iOS, iPhone, NASDAQ, Royal, Royal Blog, Stocks, Technology and Business
Apple reporting earnings yesterday.
They beat significantly lowered expectations on top & bottom line.
How excited were analysts? Not very. Only a few upgraded price targets (a bearish sign), and then only by small amounts (also a bearish sign).
AAPL tried to rally… but couldn't make it over $300… and fell back for a loss on the day.
There's a reason why 80% of analysts CUT price targets going into earnings… because the virus has really bashed Apple.
Here is the perspective:
Apple's guidance for this quarter was a revenue range of $63b to $67b.
From Apple's conference call yesterday, Tim Cook said:
Based on Apple's performance during the first five weeks of the quarter, we were confident we were headed toward a record second quarter. At the very high end of our expectations.
That means they were on track for $67b. But actually it probably means they were on track for $68b to $70b… since Apple is notorious for sandbagging guidance.
But, with the virus, they only logged $58b in revenues. (Still a huge number, btw.)
Assuming even revenue distribution through the quarter, the $67b would have been about $22.3b per month… so theoretically the $58b was $22.3b + $22.3b + $13.4b, since the bulk of the virus problems hit in March.
So… if we take $13.4b as what they did in March… and assume an "uptick" for April (as Cook called it in the earnings call)… and assume things don't really open up in U.S. or Europe until June… and assume a "normal" June… we could guess revenues might be $14b + $14b + $22.3b or about $50b…
… that's if everything opens up in June and things go back to the "happy go lucky!" good times of Janurary.
Hello? Are any of the Apple fanboys bidding up AAPL listening? That's still a big-ass revenue contraction… like 30% below a ballpark of what their pre-virus performance might have been… when the stock was hitting an all-time high of $327.85.
So why is AAPL currently trading just 10% below that now?
Because the reality of the next 1-2 quarters hasn't sunk in for Apple investors yet.
Seems to me my simple, back-of-the-envelope hack calculations suggest AAPL should be down another 20%… or <$240.
And that's not even including what happens if we see a second wave of infections… or if the market, which shot up in April, naturally cycles down 5-10% in May.
Posted: April 25, 2020 in America, Apple, Apple TV, Business, Consumers, Farros, iOS, iPhone, NASDAQ, Royal, Royal Blog, Stocks, Technology and Business
Tags: AAPL, Apple, farros, INTC, Intel, royal, Royal Blog, Royal Farros
I'm a contrarian. It's my observation that when everyone thinks one thing, the real, outsized opportunity is the other.
But what happens when everyone thinks one thing… but the market is thinking quite another?
Take AAPL. From a low of around $212 a month ago, it's powered its way to almost $290. More impressively, just about 12% from its all-time high.
Heck, if you went way out on a limb, you could probably say that's even within a normal trading range. "Has the whole world stopped? We didn't notice!"
But all through this romp upwards, most Apple analysts have been decidedly negative.
Out of about 30 analyst moves in the last two months, a whopping 80% of them were downgrades.
To put this in context, Intel analysts were split 50/50 between upgrades and downgrades going into their earnings last Thursday. So, relatively speaking, 80/20 to the negative side is a big spread.
As important, some of the AAPL downgrades were double downgrades… that is, a second price-target cut within just a few weeks.
So what's the contrarian play here? Go against analysts and buy? Or go against the market and short?
I think you go against the market. That's the bigger "everyone" in this case.
Going against the market also seems, well, more rational to me. I love Apple but I think the current market enthusiasm seems excessive given our uncertain environment: Uncertain when lock-downs will end… uncertain that people will want to congregate at Apple Stores when they do… uncertain when we'll see a vaccine… uncertain that a 2nd, or even 3rd, inflection wave may hit… and so on.
This uncertain environment is awesome for a select number of businesses… say Amazon and Netflix… but could be less kind to a (mostly) consumer hardware company like Apple. Not that I'm not saying people can live without their iPhones — they can't — but I am saying they may be less quick to buy $1,000 upgrades.
No doubt, what makes going against Apple scary is it's one of a handful of companies that has the business levers to manage its way around a crisis like this. And they are notorious for pulling rabbits-out-of-hats.
Still, a V-shaped recovery? THE ENTIRE WORLD HAS SHUT DOWN. Does a (mostly) consumer hardware company merit trading anywhere near an all-time high? Does the market merit trading anywhere near an all-time high? Somewhere in this equation there has to be some p-a-i-n.
I'm not the first person to say there's a good chance we'll see another downdraft. So if Apple does surprise to the upside, AAPL could still take a tumble along with the rest of the market. Nice to have a backup scenario in this situation.
P.S. A couple of other quick AAPL trading comments:
While Apple has done a terrific job moving into services, these are still only about 20% of company's revenues. Meaning, Apple is still mostly a hardware company.
Intel, also a hardware company, has had a similar run-up as AAPL. Last Thursday INTC blew away their numbers, benefitting from the Coronavirus "work at home" situation. Apparently, with mobile being such a huge focus the last few years, home desktop machines have been ignored and needed updating.
In contrast, you don't need to upgrade your iPhone to work at home.
One last data point: Even though Intel blew out numbers, INTC finished flat for the day.
Apple Is Going Higher, Not Lower
Posted: November 1, 2018 in AAPL, America, Apple, Business, Farros, iOS, iPhone, Politics, Royal, Royal Blog, Stocks
Tags: AAPL, Apple, farros, iPhone, royal, Royal Blog, Royal Farros
Apple announced earnings today… they beat on top and bottom lines… and even though iPhone unit sales missed by a tad, average sales price crushed expectations.
Sounds good, right?
Not so fast. Apple is DOWN almost 6.5% in the after market.
Turns out guidance came in a bit light.
And, Apple said it was going to stop reporting on unit sales, which — supposedly — signals to analysts less volume going forward.
Here's what I think:
WHAT IS EVERYONE CRAZY?!
Apple just reported 40% earnings growth. That's right — 40%. That's spectacular for any company… but a company Apple's size? That's p-h-e-n-o-m-e-n-a-l.
To put valuation in perspective: Usually your P/E matches your earnings growth. So if you are growing at 10%, you have a 10 P/E. So if you've grown earnings by 40%, you should have a P/E of 40.
But that's not the case for AAPL. Apple has a trailing 20 P/E… or, even more amazing, just a forward 14 P/E. Which means there is a case to be made that AAPL is undervalued… it could be trading 100% higher… or even 200% higher in some circles.
Further, with a company like Apple — that is, consistent… steady… predictable — is light guidance really an issue? Especially given that Apple usually gives lighter guidance… and has been doing so since the days Steve ran the company?
I think not sharing iPhone unit totals is the real issue… and it's not with investors… but with analysts that are tasked to create projection models.
Fair enough, it will make their job harder.
But, seriously, Apple is consistent… steady… predictable… AND growing earnings at 40%… and, btw, growing revenues at a whopping 20%, too… their job is already pretty straightforward.
So here's what I also think: AAPL may initially go lower… but at some point the investment community is going to say, "It's the #1 product in the world, produced by the #1 brand in the world. 40% earnings growth means they continue to knock the cover off the ball. Most of the macro economic indicators are still intact. Uhm, are we daft?!"
That's when the momentum will shift… and we'll see AAPL move higher.
And, despite what will seem like a stock-crushing open, I think it could happen sometime tomorrow.
UPDATE: Well, uhm, maybe next week. :)
Microsoft Earnings Are Back To Being Incredibly Relevant
Posted: October 24, 2018 in AAPL, Apple, Business, China, Facebook, Farros, NASDAQ, Royal, Royal Blog, Stocks, Tariffs, Technology and Business, Trump
Tags: AAPL, ADBE, Adobe, Amazon, AMZN, Apple, Facebook, farros, FB, GOOG, Google, IRBT, iRobot, Microsoft, MSFT, Netflix, NFLX, royal, Royal Blog, Royal Farros, Tesla, Trump, TSLA
I have to hurry this post because Microsoft is about to announce earnings.
For the first time in many years, Microsoft's earnings are incredibly relevant again.
As many know, MSFT is in the process of successfully reinventing itself… to be a big-time cloud competitor.
Their earnings after the market closes today are important because the market is in desperate need of some kind of clear signal… either that things are still ok in tech land… or they're not.
It just so happens MSFT is announcing before Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook… which means all eyes will be on their report.
Now, Microsoft has a reasonable stage set. Adobe reaffirmed guidance last week… which I believe single-handled stopped the market from another 5-10% slide… since everyone was/is feeling like we've driven off a cliff… given tariffs… and global tensions… and interest rate hikes… and Trump acting decidedly unpresidential most of the time.
And Netflix killed their earnings, too, which even though it doesn't seem like it, also helped provide some footing in this decidedly negative market.
But some disturbing things are still happening. iRobot (IRBT), makers of my favorite electronic device in the world (Roomba!), killed their numbers, too… and the stock was still hammered today… simply because they cited some potential tariff impact… even though they still raised guidance.
What the market wants — craves — now is more assurance… that the consumer is still spending… that interest rates, while increasing, will increase in a slow and measured pace… that oil isn't going to spike… that tariffs are having a positive effect somewhere in the food chain…
… essentially that the foundation for investment is still sound.
A good report from the once most dominate and influential tech company in the world… that has clawed its way back into relevance… could turn everything on a dime. Stay tuned!
UPDATE: Earnings were solid. Beat on both top and bottom lines. Stock was up almost 5% at one point in the after-hours market. (BTW, Tesla TSLA also reported and nailed it… it's up over 10% in after hours… and ironically they mentioned tariffs and it doesn't seem to be impacting the pop.)
Apple Support Horror Story: When Two-Step Activation Locks You Out Of Your Own iPhone
Posted: September 21, 2018 in AAPL, Android, Apple, Business, Farros, Royal, Royal Blog
Tags: AAPL, Apple, Apple iPhone, farros, iPhone, Locked out of your iPhone, royal, Royal Blog, Royal Farros, Two-Step Activation
[This is an Apple iPhone Tech Support post. Totally skip it unless two-step activation has locked you out of your iPhone… and if it has, this may be one of the most valuable posts you ever read!]
I'm writing this after about 10 hours of the most horrible customer services experiences I've ever had. EVER.
I'm telling my story in hopes that Apple fix this… and to save others from the horror I went through.
I lost the ability to make or receive calls. WIFI still worked so I was able to get text and email, which actually masked the problem for the first day or so.
Verizon said it had to do with upgrading to 10.3.3, that it could be mucking with the digital antennae or something, and that the solutions was to backup, wipe the phone, reinstall, then restore the backup.
So, I called Apple Support. They concurred with Verizon and started walking me through the process.
What Apple Support did NOT do, however, was ask me if I was using two-step authentication AND whether I had a second trusted device.
Turns out when I turned on two-step authentication, I thought it was only naturally to designate my iPhone as my trusted device. Sounds reasonable, right?
This turns out to be DEATH. And incredibly irresponsible of the Apple Support folks that helped me!
Because when I wiped my phone and reinstalled from scratch, it meant I had to reactivate my iPhone with Verizon… but Verizon requires that I enter in my Apple ID and password and, as the second step of the two-step authentication, the six-digit code that Apple would send to my — you guessed it — inactive device!
I went down Apple's recovery path… and the automated Apple process told me it would take a few days to add a second trusted device… "for my protection." When a few days came, it said it would take a few more. Then a few more. Then it said a WEEK!
Before I continue, I want to say that these time estimates were a BIG FAT LIE. It just kept pushing the date out on me.
And, I want to say it doesn't matter that Apple was doing all of this "for my protection"… I use my phone for work… and it can't be non-functional for even a few days!
I literally almost gave up and just bought a new phone… because, after TEN (10) hours of Apple Support help, I wasn't any closer to a solution. And — please listen to this, Apple — I was damn close to considering an android, too.
I have no idea why I called Apple Support one more time. Maybe because I was bleary eyed and wasn't really thinking. Maybe because I just wanted to yell at someone. Maybe because I own Apple stock and just couldn't believe I was really hung out to dry here. But I did call one more time, and spoke to Ginger L… and — TO MY INCREDIBLE SURPRISE — she actually had heard of a clever work around for this situation.
And, what do you know, IT WORKED!
Bless Ginger L., she should be CEO of Apple!
Apple, PLEASE FIX THIS. No customer should ever, ever, ever endure what I had to go through. PLEASE!
The Ginger L. Solution: How to activate an inactive device when Apple two-step authentication insists on sending the activation code to the inactive device
* Plug your iPhone into a computer that has iTunes on it.
* Log into iTunes and back up iPhone to the cloud or your computer.
* Restore iPhone to a new phone… initialize phone just like it's a new one (i.e., chose language, what time zone, WIFI, etc.)… BUT — AND THIS IS KEY — do NOT enter your Apple ID, keep choosing options that bypass Apple ID.
* Activate your account (in my case, I had to call Verizon).
* Test that your phone can send & receive calls and text messages.
* From a computer, log into AppleID.Apple.com.
* Enter Apple ID and password.
* Apple will try to send you your second-step authorization code to Message but that won't work yet. Click the "I didn't receive my code" link and choose the "Send text message" option.
* IMPORTANT NOTE: Respond to any other text messages you see… because once you restore your backup, you will lose those newly downloaded text messages.
* Enter code and from your computer and follow the links/instructions to turn OFF two-step notification.
* Plug your iPhone into your computer and from iTunes restore your backup.
* Activate your iPhone again (again, for me with a call to Verizon)… which may require you to enter your Apple ID and password… but WON'T require Apple sending you an second-step auth code to an inactive phone!
There, I just saved you 10 hours of customer support misery!
Q1 2018 Apple (AAPL) Earnings Preview: Everyone Is Expecting A Bad Quarter. Well, Not Everyone…
Posted: May 1, 2018 in AAPL, Apple, Farros, iOS, iPhone, Royal, Royal Blog, Stocks, Technology and Business
Tags: AAPL, Apple, farros, iPad, iPhone, Mac, royal, Royal Blog, Royal Farros
Apple (AAPL) reports after the bell today.
Everyone expects a miss. Lots of people have already significantly cut iPhone and rev estimates. The stock has already fallen about 10% (correction territory) in just the last two weeks… so a lot of negativity is already priced in.
On the other hand, what's NOT priced in are two biggies:
(1) Apple is going to talk about what it's going to do with its MASSIVE repatriated cash horde.
I think this is going to be stunning… since I believe it may be the LARGEST cash repatriation EVER for a corporation.
All kinds of stock-positive things will be discussed… like significantly raising the dividend… or massively increasing buy backs… and so on.
So this will be a positive.
(2) The market is so totally fixated on iPhone that it sometimes forgets that Apple has other massive businesses, too… like services… like Mac… like iPad… and so on. And like the rest of tech this quarter, I think those will surprise to the upside as well.
So, my thoughts are these:
The bad news about iPhone is already mostly priced in, which I think minimizes or eliminates the downside.
The good news about repatriated cash usage and all the other Apple businesses are NOT priced in.
So I tend to think they'll be more of an upside surprise than not. Which is counter to the way everyone's going into this earnings call. As a contrarian, that's scary but what I like as an investor.
"Flight To Quality" Is What They Call AAPL Action These Last Few Days
Posted: February 6, 2018 in AAPL, Apple, Farros, Royal, Technology and Business
Tags: AAPL, Apple, farros, Flight To Quality, royal, Royal Farros
I remember the first Gulf War back in 1991. The entire world was freaked out, including — especially — the financial markets.
Yet, the day we attacked, the Dow had one of its best days ever.
I remember hearing the phrase, "flight to quality." That is, when the going gets scary, the smart move to safe and trustworthy investments.
On that January 18th day back in 1991, it was IBM that people flocked to… IBM being, back then, the most important tech company on the planet.
Over the last few days, it's been AAPL.
I think this puts a lot of the nitpicking criticisms of AAPL in appropriate perspective: When the going is tough, the tough don't hesitate to flock to Apple.
The Rumors Of Apple's Death May Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
Posted: January 31, 2018 in AAPL, Apple, Business, Farros, iPhone, Royal, Technology and Business
Tags: AAPL, Apple, Earnings, farros, iPhone, royal, Royal Farros
Lots of downgrades for Apple over the last few weeks. The stock was spooked from a $180 level just two weeks ago to around $166 today.
It has nothing to do with the holiday quarter that Apple is going to report on tomorrow after the market's close… that, people believe, will come in at record levels.
No, it has to do with how the iPhone X is selling this quarter. Channel checks with suppliers indicate Apple is slashing its expectations of iPhone X sales this quarter… by as much as half…
… which certainly seems like a huge let down given that the iPhone X is supposed to be the flagship product and the first iPhone to crack the $1,000 price barrier.
But… come on, people… did you really think a $1,000 iPhone X should sell in consumer numbers? It's not supposed to be a volume leader… rather, it's supposed to be something exclusive and, quite frankly, unattainable for many.
That's the whole point… to have a high-end iPhone entrant that (1) makes the device/technology more desirable, and (2) contributes in some way to an even higher overall iPhone family "ASP" or Average Selling Price (which is already the highest in the industry).
My guess is — since there are no negative reports on the iPhone 8 — that it's not only selling well, but making up for any short-fall from the iPhone X… after all, if they're not buying an iPhone X, they're buying one of the other not-so-cheap models.
Additionally, don't be surprised if some of Apple's "smaller" businesses — like cloud & other services — make meaningful contributions, too. Even the analysts that have raised flags on the iPhone X agree that last quarter should be pretty spectacular for the company.
And, finally, I always have to throw in the irrationality of the market: Apple, one of the most stellar tech companies in the world according to any measure (even growth), has a P/E of 14.2 forward earnings… while the average company in the S&P 500 has 18.6. If you're looking at tech leaders, Google has a forward P/E of 28… and Amazon has — wait for it — 168. Go figure.
AAPL has been beaten down so much by negative sentiment in the last few weeks that I think we might have a nice setup for a pop after earnings tomorrow.
At least, that's what the contrarian in me thinks.
The First Time I Met The Coach (Bill Campbell)
Posted: April 19, 2016 in AAPL, Apple, Business, Farros, Football, Royal, Uncategorized
Tags: AAPL, Apple, Bill Campell, Claris, Coach, farros, Heidi Roizen, royal, Royal Farros, T/Maker, WriteNow
Long-time marketing/sales/tech guy Bill Campbell passed yesterday.
Not a lot of people outside Silicon Valley knew him… but everyone inside did. Among his many business feats, he somehow managed to play significant roles at arguably the two most important — and competitive — technology companies in the world, Apple and Google… at the same time! If ever there was a testament to how good Bill was — or how much influence he had in Silicon Valley — that's it.
As significant, Bill was very active in the Sacred Heart community (where my daughter goes to school)… not just donating (which he did a LOT of), but participating, too… indeed, he coached a generation of "powder puff" girl football players. Sadly my daughter will have missed the coaching-experience-of-a-lifetime by just a year.
I always chuckle when I think how I met Bill. It was at a big Macworld party. At the urinal. Just two guys having a simple chat. No stranger to a locker room, Bill was absolutely a guy's guy.
I met with Bill in (ahem) a more professional environment when he took over the Claris division of Apple. My T/Maker business partner Heidi Roizen and I pitched Bill on making our award-winning word processor, WriteNow For Macintosh, the upgrade to MacWrite. At one point during the conversation Bill took us on a tour of Claris' new headquarters… mostly empty because the spin-out was brand new… and mostly there were just IT and facilities folks walking around. What impressed me about Bill was he knew everyone by name… essentially the "little" people… and true to his coaching reputation, high-fived several of them as we walked by.
He just seemed like someone you wanted to play for… err, I mean, work for.
Nothing came of the conversations, but we stayed in touch. Bill asked me to serve on the board of Great Plains Software (eventually acquired by Microsoft) and, unfortunately, I was in the process of taking a company public and felt I couldn't short-change my shareholders, things were so incredibly, incredibly hectic. On top of that Laurie's dad was in the process of passing away. Reluctantly, and hesitantly, I explained all of this to him… and to my great relief he couldn't have been more gracious — and supportive — in his understanding… it was easy to see why he was a true elder statesman.
Our paths would cross from time to time. Ironically, about 25 years after my Claris meeting, I was cleaning out my basement and found an old WriteNow t-shirt… to which I proudly wore to the next sporting event at Sacred Heart. As luck would have it, I ran into Bill… and without skipping a beat, he pointed at my t-shirt and laughed, saying something like, "it's still going strong after all these years!" Goodness knows he's had a lot more important things on his mind between then and now… but it brought such a smile to my face that he remembered.
Here's to someone who went strong for 75 years. Rest in peace, Coach.
Big Advantages To Splitting Stock… But Why Such A Silly Ratio, Apple?
Posted: May 6, 2014 in Apple, Business, Farros, Royal, Technology and Business
Tags: AAPL, Apple, GOOG, Google, stock split
Everyone has already heard that Apple is going to split their stock 7-for-1 on June 2.
People say that it really makes no difference, that it's purely optical… other than it making some investors feel more affordable.
Well, psychologically speaking, isn't that a big deal?
But there is also another terrific reason to split a stock… and it surprises me that no one ever discusses it.
Generally speaking, a small beat may or may not drive a stock's price up… but a small miss is generally a disaster. Which means a stock with a high price is much more likely to be negatively influenced by a small miss than a stock with a more reasonable price.
On April 16th, Google traded at $556.54. They announced net earnings of $6.27 per share… vs. analysts expectations of $6.44 per share.
Looks like they missed by 17 cents and the stock was down more than $20 the next day… and has slipped even more in the weeks following… a shame for such a stellar quarter.
Had Google split its stock 10-to-1… such that the April 16th share price was $55.65… such that net earnings were $0.63 vs. an expectation of $0.64… because of rounding the miss would have only been one cent … certainly something that feels a lot less.
(There's that word again — feels — lest we not forget that emotion is a huge factor in short term stock performance.)
Better, without being buried under more ominous headlines, the positive aspects of GOOG's quarter — of which there were many — may have had more of a chance of being appreciated.
So, I'm very happy Apple is splitting its stock…
… EXCEPT… 7-to-1? That's the silliest ratio in the world… 10-to-1 would make TONS more sense… as well as allow for easy comparisons with previous years — we all can divide exactly by 10 in our heads… but I don't know anyone that can divide 7 consistently in any kind of exact way.
I asked someone in Apple finance what was the story with 7-to-1 and got a, "I have no idea, either!" glance.
Ugh. I wonder if it's too late for Apple to fix this? While I love that AAPL is splitting, it really is absolutely, positively the most silly split ratio ever.
So Now I Get Apple's Next Revenue Driver… It Will Be Amazing
Posted: February 13, 2013 in Business, Royal, Technology and Business
Tags: Apple, Apple TV, farros, Nat Brown, royal, xBox
I haven't had my socks knocked off in a while.
But, I just read a piece from Nat Brown, the founder of the original xBox project at Microsoft… discussing what could torpedo all the game platforms.
Apple TV can.
Like everyone else, I thought of Apple TV as being the coolest looking TV ever… something that would have mind-blowing sound… something that would play iTunes movies and music really well… something that could take a reasonable-sized chunk of the TV sales away traditional vendors like Sony and Panasonic.
I think that's what everybody else has been thinking, too. At least, that's the way all the reports read up to this point.
But — DUH — that's NOT what Apple TV will be about… it will really be an app platform.
And that changes everything.
The iPhone wasn't just another cell phone… it was a platform for a zillion developers to turn the cell phone into a brand new experience that disrupted the entire global cell phone industry.
The iPad wasn't just another tablet computer… it was a platform for another zillion developers (including iPhone developers) to turn the tablet computer into a brand new experience that disrupted the entire global computer industry.
Which means Apple TV (iTV?) won't be just another cool-looking TV…
… it will be a platform for yet another zillion developers (including iPhone and iPad developers) to turn the proverbial "boob tube" into a brand new experience that will completely and utterly disrupt global TV manufacturers, broadcast media conglomerates, advertising, gaming console, and cable companies alike. (Did I leave anyone out? I probably did.)
Wow. Now that's a cool thing.
What do I mean by brand new experience? Who knows, that's the point! Who would have ever thunk the clumsy little clam shell cell phone and clunky tablet computer would be doing what they are today?
Bottomline: Will Apple disrupt yet another massive market? Yep, there's going to be an app for that, too.
Steve Jobs 1955-2011
Posted: October 5, 2011 in Business, Technology and Business
Tags: Apple, farros, Heidi Roizen, royal, Royal Farros, Steve Jobs, T/Maker
Steve Jobs passed away this afternoon.
What can you say about a guy that will be remembered in history books for the rest of time?
What I've always said about Steve:
He is the only person I know that is everything anyone has ever said about him… all the insanely great, over-the-top stuff… and all the "mercurial" comments, too.
I remember the first time I ever heard Steve speak… he gave a talk at the Stanford Business School… and — honest to God — I was so fired up after listening to him that I was — physically — buzzing… I immediately parked myself in the library and for the next hour or so wrote down everything I could remember about his talk and everything I was thinking and feeling. I wanted to capture the way I was feeling forever.
To this day, I have never been affect more by a speech in my entire life… it was my first exposure to true, pure, unadulterated charisma.
It wouldn't be the last, though.
I, somehow, was placed in the second row — dead center stage — sitting exactly behind Ross Perot and Steve's then recently acknowledged daughter Lisa — during the NeXT Computer unveiling in 1988. (Thanks, Dan'l!)
Steve killed that day, too. As he did throughout his entire career, Steve knew how to turn on the magic like no one else.
Years before the NeXT introduction, I came to work with Steve at my old company, T/Maker.
We published a software product of his… and wanted to know what he thought of a tentative name, WriteNow. He — amazingly — loved the name… which, apparently, was quite a shocker because everyone at NeXT said Steve was going to hate anything we came up with.
Our jubilation turned to horror, though: That name was taken by not one but two other companies.
We told Steve we couldn't use the name and he said, "tough, it's perfect, get it."
I spent the next three months of my life convincing and cajoling and pleading and negotiating. And in the end, even though we had no legs to stand on, we got the name… just like Steve knew we would.
During those days Steve was definitely a study in contrasts. He could be extraordinarily tight-fisted… then turn around and pay designer Paul Rand $100K — a fortune back then — for the NeXT logo… its claim to fame, of course, the small, soft "e" — emphasizing "education" — sitting next to the other three big, stark, cap letters.
And that was worth $100K??
Didn't matter… as always, image — branding — was everything.
I got in one drag-down, knock-down argument with Steve… so I can say with absolute first-hand knowledge that he could pull strings in you that you didn't even know you had.
When he finally realized he was barking up the wrong tree, he, somehow, masterfully, nimbly, simply changed the entire cadence of the conversation, making it somehow feel like he wasn't the biggest jerk in the world, but rather, that we arrived in a good spot and were better off having "discussed the issues."
Later I came to understand this was just Steve's way… he would push hard, many times unreasonably, just to see if there was anything else he could learn… and, secretly, even perversely, to see how you would respond.
To this day I haven't really reconciled how I felt about the episode. It was incredibly frustrating… but also incredibly thrilling.
Two things, though, became incredibly clear: (1) you simply could not be anything but at the top of your game around him, because (2) Steve was probably the most difficult person in the world to work with.
No doubt, he did get incredibly great things out of people.
But, unfortunately, that always came at a great price.
When brute force failed, Steve could, reluctantly, switch gears.
Steve had pummeled us in contract negotiations at T/Maker… basically got 98% of everything he wanted… except for one, tiny little thing. Go figure, that one, tiny little thing reared its ugly head. Instead of graciously accepting the contractual language, he pulled the, "look, I know what the contract says, but in my heart, this is what I meant for that paragraph to say…".
Heidi Roizen, my dear friend and partner at T/Maker, and I have laughed about that one for years… he really would — unabashedly — try absolutely every trick in the book to get what he wanted.
One of the best back-handed compliments I have ever received was from Heidi. We were in the throes of a user interface debate — I think, seriously, arguing about the placement of a single pixel in a small icon — when she wheeled toward me and said, "geez, Royal, you and Steve are the only two guys I know that have infinite energy to argue about the most meaningless things."
I know she didn't mean that as a compliment — but I took it as one — and I suspect Steve would have taken it as such, too… his attention to detail was, of course, legendary.
Doesn't mean he always got it right…
… I'm still upset with him for pushing a round mouse on the world for not one but two versions of the iMac (a mouse is a navigation device, so it's imperative that you know north-south orientation without looking)…
… or actually thinking cursor keys didn't have their place in a graphical interface…
… or, as a young chairman of a young computer company, actually calling the employees in the division that produced 99% of his revenues "bozos"…
… but, it did mean he never gave up trying to get it right.
People have always compared Steve to Bill Gates. As a competitor, I have always said Steve was, by far, more dangerous. Bill used logic and reason and always did the strategically smart business move — even if it was vicious and ruthless. But Steve let emotion and ego and, well, craziness guide him… which made him unpredictable… which is far more dangerous.
Crazy like a fox, eh?
I always felt a bit sorry for Steve in those days… for all he had achieved — and even at that early stage, he had achieved a lot — it still felt like he was missing something… I didn't really see him have any good friends. Seemed he was very much a victim of his own circumstance.
Of late I've heard stories of him vacationing alone in Hawaii… which made me sad… but, more often than not, I've heard things that sounded, well, incredibly normal… and those things always put a smile on my face. I think what was missing from the Steve I knew so many years ago was family… and I am happy he found that later in life.
When Steve was kicked out of Apple, I remember him saying, "I still have 4 or 5 great products in me." I always thought that was bravado talking, that he was already wealthy, already guaranteed a spot in the tech hall of fame, and that, ultimately, his grinding, my-way-or-the-highway approach would continue to be his undoing.
But Steve fooled everyone… he got better with age. Probably his most inspiring lesson of all.
From what I know, Steve's illness should have taken him years ago.
Only Steve could dictate to death itself.
Steve, not sure I can say this about anyone else… but the world will really be a different place without you.
Guess We All Should Have Known It Was Going To Be Called The iPhone 4
Tags: Apple, farros, iPhone, iPhone 4, iPhone 5, royal, Royal Farros
The market seemed quite disappointed that Apple "only" released an upgraded iPhone 4… rather than a new, spify iPhone 5.
After all, Apple lovers have waited an eternity for the new model… err, I mean a whole 18 months.
I was watching the news yesterday morning… lots of shots in front of the Apple building where the announcement was being held… and on the front of the building some beautiful and simple Apple-styled icons about the event… one in particular caught my eye, a giant "4"… as part of a calendar icon showing the date, October 4th.
It looked weird for some reason.
Now it's a "duh" moment for me.
I don't think Apple could have signaled its naming intentions any stronger than scheduling the event on October 4th — as opposed to easily being able to have it on October 5th — and putting a giant "4" right in front of our faces.
Happy 50th Birthday, George Vineyard!
Posted: March 1, 2011 in Technology and Business
Tags: AAPL, Apple, farros, george vineyard, royal
Sadly, George Vineyard would be 50 today.
He's gotta be somewhere with a big smile on his face… after all, he was Apple's (AAPL) biggest fan when the stock was at about $25 (yikes!)… he declared CD's and DVD's a "dead media" way before any of the so-called experts… and eerily he somehow knew the 49ers were going to run into some rough years.
Was he wrong with any of his predictions?
I can hear him now: "I'm not wrong… I just haven't been proven right yet."
I could have used his wisdom and strong shoulder over the last few years. I still miss my good friend deeply.
[George Vineyard 1961-2005: Farwell Dear Friend]


America may soon have its own Eurovision-style song contest. Of course, with America being, in its own eyes, the extent of the world, the contest will be between the 50 states. And since the states don't have their own national broadcasters, it will be run by commercial TV network NBC. In other words, it will probably turn out like American Idol or something, with little of the cross-cultural weirdness that makes Eurovision the kitschfest it is; expect to see big-haired Christians from down south, the odd multiply-pierced freak from San Francisco and a lot of standard saccharine ballads/MTV-style R&B-pop with perhaps a bit of local colour thrown in (that'd be banjo picking or tex-mex or perhaps the odd Celtic Mood, and not Balkan folk melodies or anything quite so leftfield), not to mention an excess of the sort of cloying earnestness America leads the world in.
Is anybody else reminded of this Onion article by the idea?
There are no comments yet on "Amerivision Song Contest"


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Continued Series Winners: James, Mays, Cleeves, Toyne, Rhodes, Billingham & Haddam Sunday, Oct 27 2013
Award winning novelist and Continued series winner and Series not to be missed Brighton mystery, Connecticut mystery, conspiracies, England mystery, Lewis Island mystery, murders, police procedural, Shetland Islands mystery, thriller	Auntie M Writes Crime 12:34 am
Auntie M is reading a ton of great series and wants to suggest you check out these continued winners.
Peter James' Roy Grace novels have captivated readers in the millions and he continues his powerful series with Dead Man's Time. Set in Brighton, these police thrillers follow the Detective Superintendent and his relationship. The newest has the unusual premise of a prologue from 1922, when five-year-old Gavin Daly and his sister board a ship for Dublin after the death of their parents.
At the dock in New York, a messenger carries two things that will haunt Gavin for the rest of his life: his father's pocket watch, and a paper with four names and eleven numbers written on it. Gavin pledges to find out the meaning of these things and spends a lifetime searching.
Fast forward to current time, and Grace is getting used to being a new father and the lack of sleep that brings. A string of burglaries have captured the attention of Brighton's residents.
When an old woman is murdered and a huge cache of antiques she kept stolen, he is surprised when her family are only interested in one item: a vintage pocket watch. The victim's brother is none other than an aged Gavin Daly, still on the hunt having amassed incredible wealth as the years have passed.
What Grace will find as he probes is a mixed bag of old revenge and new hatreds. He will become mired in the machinations of several trails, leading to the antiques world of Brighton, to Marbella and its crime world, and back in time to the crime families of New York.
And all the time he seeks to unravel this twisted scheme, a madman plots against his beloved Cleo and their infant son. A wonderful addition to the series, meticulously researched and intricately plotted.
Auntie M had the pleasure of meeting with Peter James this summer and found him warm and likeable, with a wicked sense of humor not unlike his protagonist.
Peter Mays' Lewis trilogy captures the remoteness of the Outer Hebrides area and its stark beauty in his award-winning series that serves up the complexity of human relationships.
After the success of The Blackhouse, Mays second offering, The Lewis Man, finds his protagonist, former DI Fin Macleod, bound by his past to help the family of islanders he is linked to by history and familial ties.
The father of his lover, Marsaili, has always maintained he was an only child, and enters a care home suffering from dementia when Marsaili's mother has her fill of taking care of him.
Then a corpse is found in a peat bog, and far from being the historic body it is first thought, it is quickly ascertained that this body is far more recent–and is a DNA match to Tormod Macdonald, Marsaili's father.
This winning novel shows the plot through Fin's eyes and through the remembrances and clouded memory of Tormod, an interesting device that allows the story of Tormod's upbringing to unfold, while explaining why he felt it necessary to claim he had no family at all. The climax will keep you reading well past lights out time to seek the improbable resolution to this complicated novel.
The Chessmen completes the trilogy. With his divorce final, Fin Macleod has moved back to Lewis and is working as a private investigator.
He is putting his life in Edinburgh and his police skills behind him. Or so he thinks.
He takes an assignment as head of security to track down poachers working a huge island estate, and finds himself reunited with old friends including Whistler Macaskill. Their history and that of their friends form the basis for the action that follows when a body is found in a crashed plane at the bottom of a loch.
May's uses the device again of showing the past in episodes, this time through Fin's remembrances. The 1919 tragedy of the Iolaire is recounted and haunts the action.
That loch discovery will change the very foundation upon which Macleod's memories are built, for a secret being kept for decades by people Macleod thought he knew. At stake will be lives, his and others, and a girl who needs to be saved.
This gritty series has given readers surprising plot twists and brilliant characterizations throughout.
Readers can only hope May will take a page from Ann Cleeves, whose Shetland trilogy so thoroughly engaged readers that she decided to bring out a fourth volume.
Dead Water continues the story of Shetland Island detective inspector Jimmy Perez. Blue Lightning Spoiler alert: In a shocking twist in the third volume, Perez's fiancee was murdered, and the detective is still struggling with that loss as he shares custody of her daughter with the girl's biological father.
Jerry Markham is a journalist from Shetland whose family run a pricey hotel and restaurant in the area. The young man had left the island for London and work on a bigger and more important paper.
He left in his wake a scandal involving a young woman he made pregnant, who has gone on to make a life for herself on the island and whose impending marriage to an older seaman nears.
Then Markham's body is found in a boat right outside the home of the Procurator Fiscal, Rhona Laing, a contained woman with a tidy, bleak house, who outlet in a crew team marks an otherwise lonely existence, one she prefers on her road to political advancement.
With Perez on leave, a young DI from the Hebrides is called in to conduct the investigation. Willow Reeves represents an unusual character and she's able to bring Perez into the case by using his local knowledge. She also gets him to start to look past his grief, as his detecting skills are brought into play.
The case seems to revolve around Sullum Voe, where Shetland's oil and gas industry are centered, and the big story Markham was following that brought him home.
Then a second death occurs, muddying the waters, and Perez and Reeves will team up to unmask a killer. Readers will hope Cleeves, who also writes the wonderful Vera Stanhope series, will keep Perez afloat.
Kate Rhodes knocked our socks off with her first Alice Quentin novel, Crossbones Yard, a complex mystery whose shocking ending resounded with readers.
In this second installment, A Killing of Angels, the behavioral psychologist is back with a new case that finds her assisting the police again, despite her reservations after the nightmare of the first book.
Fiercely independent Alice is training for a marathon, despite London's hottest summer on record. Her specialty in personality disorders makes her an expert at character analysis and an enormous help to the police.
The body in question was a suspected suicide, until a picture of an angel and a few white feathers are found stuffed into the victim's pocket.
The killings continue and it's obvious that the Square Mile and the banking world is the locus for the crimes. As Alice tries to help detective Don Burns with the case, she finds herself dragged deeper into the intrigue and the lives of the people involved.
Complicating matters are the journalists who keep the murders high profile, suggesting the killings are retribution for the banking world and its self-absorption.
Readers can't help but be engaged with Alice and her complicated history, with Rhodes' intricate plotting, and with her facility for choosing prose that matters, echoing her poetry background. This is a thumping good read.
Simon Toyne's Ruin trilogy has captivated readers with the world he created in his series of a haunting conspiracy thrillers. Nonstop action and breakneck twists continue in The Tower.
Santus introduced readers to Liv Adamson and the prophecy that caused her brother's death and changed her life.
The Key left Liv trapped in the Syrian Desert, with her erstwhile savior, ex-special forces Gabriel Mann, suffering from the deadly virus that originated in the Citadel, an ancient monastery at the center of the conspiracy.
Enter new FBI agent Joe Shepherd, at first glance an unlikely choice to work the case after a cyber-attack at the Goddard Space Center that disables the Hubbard telescope and the subsequent disappearance of the prize-winning scientist in charge, who has left behind a cryptic and chilling message.
But Shepherd's background with degrees in astrophysics and computer science make him the perfect choice. Despite the secrets he is hiding, Shepherd's investigation leads him to connect these new incidents with the explosion months ago at the Citadel and the viral outbreak that ensued.
Readers will be engrossed in Shepherd's journey with the added pressure of the device ofa countdown clock dogging his heels. Then unusual things start to happen around the globe, and it remains to be seen if humanity can be saved.
Things will come full circle, but what is that meaning of that phrase? It it the ending of everything known before, or an entire new beginning?
For the woman at the heart of it all, Liv and her destiny will change the way the world survives–if it can. This third novel successfully answers all the questions raised in the other two, while providing a meaning and reason for the episodes of the others.
Auntie M met with Simon Toyne this summer and his outrageous good looks and charm belie the complicated mind needed to create this new world and the roller-coaster ride his readers will find.
Jane Haddam's Gregor Demarkain novels continue to entertain. In this 28th installment, Hearts of Sand takes the investigator to the old-monied town of Alwych, Connecticut.
Although Chapin Waring disappeared thirty years ago, the quarter of a million dollars she had with her from a series of bank robberies was never recovered. There have been no sightings of the woman and she's rumored to be dead.
Then new rumors fill the town: that Chapin has been seen on the beach or in a store, and these prove true when her body is found in the family's vacant home, a knife sticking out of her back.
As a retired profiler, Demarkian excels at reading people and this kind of situation is right up his alley. With the local police stumped, he's asked to help them narrow their field of suspects, and there are far too many of them.
Research into Chapin's life shows her to have been a manipulative girl within an inner circle, whose attraction to danger led to the bank robberies and a car crash that killed her accomplice. The remaining people of her inner circle are just as delectable suspects as are the victim's own sisters. Haddam gets small town snobbery just right.
We're back across the pond with Mark Billingham's wonderful DI Tom Thorne series. Number eleven doesn't disappoint: it's vintage Thorne at his crankiest and most recalcitrant in The Dying Hours.
Busted back to uniform after the horrific events in Good as Dead and losing the title 'detective' while remaining an inspector hasn't changed the way Thorne's analytical mind works. Despite his demotion, and putting his budding relationship in jeopardy, Thorne's instincts run true when he's called to the scene of a suicide that doesn't feel right to him.
Unable at first to pinpoint his unease, it soon becomes apparent, at least to Thorne, that a series of suicides of elderly people don't ring true. One thing they all have in common is a lack of depression or sadness other suicides exhibit.
Try convincing the Murder Squad of that, though. The new head of the very team he once ran refuses to accept these might be the killings of a sick mind.
But any Thorne reader knows he will not take dismissal well, and he plunges into his own parallel investigation, calling on his former colleagues and few remaining friends to help out, despite that they must put their own careers on the line, and jeopardizing any sliver of career he might have left of his own.
This is vintage Thorne, from his predilection for country music to his doggedness once he becomes convinced he's right.
Adding to the texture is Billingham's ability to get inside the mind of the creepy villain, bent on revenge and justifying his horrific actions. By adding in the point of the view of the perpetrator, Billingham creates a wily adversary and gives readers a chilling glimpse inside the mind of a murderer.
Three Hot Summer Reads Sunday, Jun 23 2013
Uncategorized Brighton mystery, British procedural, child murderer, London killer, psychological thriller, rock star in jeopardy, Roy Grace series, serial killer, Sikh culture, The Royal Pavilion	Auntie M Writes Crime 12:33 am
In Not Dead Yet, the incomparable Peter James is back with Brighton Detective Superintendent Roy Grace, who intends to spend the weekend with his pregnant partner, Chief Mortician Cleo Morey. Coping with preparation for a major trail looms for Grace, but the couple hope to steal some together before their infant is born.
That notion comes to an abrupt halt with the finding of a torso embedded in chicken excrement under the gridded steel floor at an East Sussex chicken farm. Other than some bits of clothing and a multitude of flies, the head and all four limbs are missing.
Grace's team are stressed, too, between illness and divorce, and all take their toll on Grace's worry, even as he waits for the papers to come through that will declare his wife, Sandy, legally dead, after her disappearance ten years ago.
All Grace needs now is the call he receives from the Chief Constable, and despite the cases he's dealing with, he's handed an unwelcome assignment: setting up a security strategy for rock singer and actress Gaia Lafayette.
Gaia is a Brighton native, arriving back home to star in an historical film about King George the Fourth and his mistress. Significant scenes will be filmed on location at Brighton's jewel, The Royal Pavilion.
But threats against Gaia's life follow her from California where an assistant has been murdered, and Grace is tasked with coordinating several teams to assure the star's safety. The star arrives with her young son in tow and a multitude of Hollywood types whose mere presence adds to Grace's stress and workload.
Add to these worries a Brighton villain Grace put away who has been released, and the maniac fans who follow Gaia around, and Grace's pressure is rising. Then Cleo's car is vandalized and all bets are off as he races between caring for her and saving Gaia's life, while his own literally hangs in the balance.
How the cases intersect is a prime example of the intricate plotting that is the hallmark of this entertaining and rewarding series. An extra twist at the end will stop your heart for a moment. This series just keeps getting better and better with its overarching plot points keeping readers eager for the next installment.
Award-winner S. J. Bolton had several stand-alone successes before bringing back DC Lacey Flint, a most unusual character who is on leave from the ordeal she suffered in Dead Scared, after being introduced in Now You See Me.
In this outing, Lost, the title refers to any number of characters in this thrilling ride as a serial killer terrorizes young boys, draining their blood and leaving their bodies to be found.
Bolton cleverly tosses in narrated sections a psychiatrist's sessions with an unnamed client at the same time as she realistically gets inside the head of Lacey's young neighbor, 11-year old Barney. He and his friends are affected by the gruesome murders with fearsome results.
Despite his father's efforts to create some kind of home life for the two of them, Barney is desperate to find the mother who abandoned him and enlists Lacey in his search.
Readers also enter the points of view of Lacey's former boss, DI Dana Tulloch, saddled with the task of tracking down this heinous killer, and Lacey's colleague DI MArk Joesbury, whom Lacey may have let get too close to her.
As Lacey struggles with the aftermath of her last case and tries to decide if her future lies in the police force, Barney realizes he may have a personal connection to the murderer. With trust gone, he has no one he can trust except Lacey.
This is part police procedural, part thriller as the suspense escalates and the violence continues until it gets out of control in this beautifully written tale of one young courageous lad and his friendship with the very wounded and fragile Lacey Flint.
Crossing the pond to New England and the world of Martha's Vineyard, A. X. Ahmad brings readers into the world of Sikh culture with his mesmerizing debut The Caretaker.
Ranjit Singh is coping with a military career gone horribly wrong and has fled with his family from India to Boston, living first with his wife's family until he starts his own landscaping business in the posh neighborhoods of the Vineyard.
But summer's jobs have faded with the onset of winter and Singh is desperate for work, which lands in his lap when the beautiful wife of a popular Senator hires him to be a caretaker for their closed summer home. This soon leads to other similar positions and a sense that he may make a new life for himself and his family.
He watches as his wife and young daughter try to assimilate into American culture and just as he thinks they may all thrive, he finds himself caught up in an unwanted scheme that brings him perilously close to losing everything and everyone he loves.
Ahmad's thriller is filled with action, as Singh becomes the man of action he used to be in the Indian Army before his fall from grace. As he tries to safeguard his family, he becomes inexplicably entwined with the comely Senator's wife, a longtime Vineyard resident, and falls prey to the machinations of the powerful Senator whose rise from poverty is the stuff of legends.
Themes of class and race, culture and above all, a man forced to face his own morality all come to bear in this tale that is lovingly crafted. There are scenes filled with grace and others with surprise and intrigue, all graced with the haunting prose and deep personal reflection. A sensational newcomer not to be missed.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


The presence of wildlife in a home's basement, attic, or elsewhere is something that all inspection personnel should be prepared for. In order to perform the best inspection possible, inspectors should know what signs to look for in the case of all variety of common and not so common animals that can invade a home.
As one of the most likely creatures to infiltrate a home, the presence of mice can be a sign of other possible wildlife infiltrations. Things like bird feeders, acorn trees and other sources of food can be an invitation to a number of different creatures. So too can woodpiles or other brush and debris piles, regardless of their proximity to the home.
When it comes to looking for openings made by small wildlife creatures, the size of the hole can provide clues to the type of creature. Mice need at least a 1/4-inch opening while squirrels require holes from 1.5-inches to three inches. Bats and birds fall in the middle as they need at least a 3/8-inch to one-inch circumference gap. Hole sizes do not definitively identify the species of animal, so droppings can be another clue as to what has infiltrated the home.
Bat droppings, which are usually black and brown speckles, will be concentrated below where they roost and crumble like dust when disturbed. Birds often leave the tell-tale white droppings where they enter while mice leave rice-seed type droppings scattered about. Squirrels on the other hand may or may not leave droppings.
It's best to start an inspection for holes from the outside using a powerful flashlight since the hole will not reflect the light. Pay special attention to corners, gables, eaves and vents, and any place where two boards meet. These are the areas where moisture and heat can cause the boards to expand and contract until a gap forms that animals can exploit.
Since many animals like squirrels, mice, raccoons, and chipmunks can enter at ground or foundation level, you should inspect the foundation on your knees and look for gaps around pipes and dryer vents. Rotted sills and cracks in the foundation can also be infiltration points for smaller creatures like mice.
Many infiltration points will have telltale fur or rub marks where oil from the animal's body discolors the area around the opening. Be sure to check downspouts and gutters as they can show the signs of where squirrels and raccoons have climbed. Raccoon prints will look like brown smears and scratches will be deep and pronounced. In addition, be sure that all hatchways and garage doors fully seal without any openings where animals can get in.
When moving to the roof, begin by scanning the gutter and roof area as normal while keeping an eye out for anomalies that could be infiltration points for animals. Squirrels for instance, are known to sit on the gutter and chew through rain-softened fascia boards. The roof itself could have telltale signs of feces such as that of raccoons that often defecate before entering an attic or chimney. In order to avoid contact with feces, its best to wear protective gloves as many forms of animal feces carry potentially dangerous bacteria, microscopic creatures and roundworms.
Moving to the chimneys and starting from the top, check the flue (or flues) for proper regulation screens and make note of any rust or holes. Uncapped flues should be inspected for smudge marks and fur (which suggest raccoon presence) and spider webs (which suggest lack of activity). Take an extra moment to be quiet and listen for any noises emanating from the chimney such as scratching, fluttering, chirping, or grinding noises.
After a thorough inspection of the exterior and roof of the house, it's time to move to the inside with particular focus on the attic and crawl spaces. Once again, it is best to wear proper protection such as a HEPA filter dust mask, heavy gloves, knee pads and thicker clothing to protect yourself from touching or inhaling animal feces. This also protects you from common inspection dangers like dust and insulation fibers.
Using proper precautions to walk on the beams and using the trusses for greater stability when possible, inspect the vent screens for areas where they have been pulled away. Turn off the flashlight to inspect for any light that may be entering from holes while being sure to differentiate between them and ridge vent openings or soffit vents.
The insulation itself can hold clues to animal infiltration as holes in the insulation can be caused by animals. Trails in blown and loose fiberglass insulation can be the signs of animal trails that can range from slight to very pronounced, depending on the animal.
Feces can also be present on top of and under the insulation.
Lastly, look for signs of the homeowner adding things that are meant to block infiltration as this usually means that it has occurred in the past. This can include aluminum flashing at the eave level, hardware cloth over vents, mouse poison, wire screening around porches and decks etc.
Today's home inspectors have a long and growing list of things to look for when inspecting a house. Although these items regarding animal infiltration add to that list, those that desire to do the best possible job will incorporate them into their investigative techniques.


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You are here: Home / 2016 General Election / Never Bet Against Trump
Never Bet Against Trump
November 27, 2016 by Don Hooper
This was the most interesting election of my lifetime. One hundred years from now scholars and political pundits will be writing and talking about this particular Presidential election. Donald J. Trump was not only a most unusual candidate, he also had an uncanny ability to read the electorate. You see the left completely imploding and many on the center or moderate right still in bewilderment that someone could be elected without their money or help. I would make the argument that the fact that Trump's campaign repudiated the establishment was the reason he succeeded. Two years ago, we had an election in Harris County in which establishment Republicans led by Paul Simpson wrestled control of the Harris County Republican Party from social conservatives. Simpson's election two years ago had a direct impact on Trump's race in Harris County, which resulted in the largest defeat of the modern Harris County Republican Party. I wanted to look at the presidential race in Harris County because the establishment Republicans who fund and support Paul Simpson did not want Trump to succeed.
I started looking at the canvass and made a few calls. I always check in with Ed Johnson (PCT 440) because technically Ed knows how to move the needle in his precinct. I, of course, had a theory that the #NeverTrumper precinct chairs did worse than those that supported him.
Looking at Ed Johnson's precinct, a DJT supporter, you can see a result that differed from the overall county result. Ed supported DJT and his results reflected his desire to support him. Ed has always run the numbers for the Harris County Republican Party and we have known each other for more years than either of us are willing to admit. Ed's resources are very different as a precinct chair. Ed has the ability to track who has and has not voted in his precinct and can use an auto-dialer to call those who haven't voted. Ed's software is very sophisticated. Understand that he has lived in the same home for many years and knows many of his voters through school, church, community, and political activities. Let's look at what he did for DJT in his precinct.
Now, look at Joe Pelati's precinct. I do not know whether Joe supported DJT or not but it is a different result than Ed's precinct. Here is someone without the resources of Ed Johnson to message or communicate with his voters in the way Ed does. I know both of these gentlemen and use them as examples because of their involvement in the Harris County Republican Party and the proximity of their precincts. Obviously, Ed Johnson's messaging in his precinct made an impact on the results for DJT. These are "close in" Westside Republican precincts and what I consider to be the heart of where I look for Republican election results. You can tell what is going to happen to Republican voting in Harris County by watching this area.
Let's look a little further west in Katy. Another party activist and someone engaged in local party politics is Kelly Horsley. Again, Kelly's GOTV ability is nowhere near Ed's; but, I do think it is interesting to look at her precinct. Keep in mind that Kelly's neighborhood is much newer than Ed's and I suspect that her longevity of knowing her neighbors is vastly different. Although she lives in a Westside Republican stronghold, the results are vastly different than Ed's precinct. I do want to know if Kelly actively campaigned for Trump or towed Simpson's party line and chose to not mention Trump and focus on down ballot candidates.
So, let's look at some more precincts.
The workhorses of the Republican Party are our women's clubs. We have had some amazing Republican women involved with the Harris County Republican Party. Judith Jones used to have the highest turnout of any precinct in the City of Houston – precinct 289. There were others: Pat McCall, Louise Wing, and, of course, Ann Lee. These women ran their precincts and delivered votes. They met, traded strategies, and competed with each other on voter turnout. They were friends and competitors during a time when the Democrats controlled everything. They turned our county red and kept it that way for years and few know their names. The history of turning our county red is a history every precinct chair should know.
The Harris County Republican Party did not do anything without consulting these women first – the party's version of local control. Every politician in the state darkened their doorsteps. It is an anachronism of times past. The local community-oriented precinct structure was a successful model for years. I say all this because, of course, in a sea of blue, Ann Lee won her precinct for Trump. Ann Lee's precinct is just west of Meyerland by the Jewish Community Center and dominated by Clinton precincts on all sides. Ann Lee was a strong Trump supporter and a convention delegate. We sit next to each other at the Downtown Pachyderm and never do I fail to learn something from her and her great spirit.
Republicans must win the power hook to be successful in Harris County. This hook includes Sarah Davis's Texas House District 134 and a large Jewish enclave located in Meyerland. Conservative Jewish voters are reliable Republican voters in national elections. Democrats have become increasingly hostile to Israel and the country's political leaders. Conversely, Evangelicals and the Christian right fight to protect Israel. Let's take a look at the power hook and see what happened to some precincts headed by local party activists. Not surprisingly, Mary Jane Smith lost her precinct to Clinton. My guess is that MJS worked against Trump. The residents of Mary Jane Smith's precinct can tell you what her message was for Trump. Experience has told me not to listen to her.
I also looked at precinct 133 led by precinct chair Kent Adams aka Mr. Sarah Davis. Kent's precinct overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton and, I suspect, voted for Sarah. I imagine that Kent failed to support Trump believing that this would help his wife's campaign. I think that it is important to note that Kent supported Devon Anderson's campaign and Sarah endorsed and promoted Devon Anderson. Ironically, the Andersons supported Ann Johnson, Sarah's 2012 uber-liberal general election opponent. I am sure that I will get an explanation someday.
Republicans were crushed in the hook. Another #NeverTrumper in this area is Precinct Chair David Gratvol. Although David's precinct is a little east of what I consider the hook, I am throwing his precinct in here because he is a big Sarah Davis and Paul Simpson supporter. Also, when the Access Hollywood tape was released, David bet me that Trump would go down in defeat. Had I lost this bet, David would have been eating at Tony's on my dime.
Paul Simpson and the consultant advising him, Kevin Shuvalov, made a tactical decision to run against the President-Elect. Both men did this believing the polls showing that Trump would hurt the down ballot races in Harris County. They treated the entire county as a microcosm of HD 134 – Sarah Davis's House District. The truth is that the entire county is not reflective of HD 134. Senate District 7, parts of West Houston, Kingwood, and the Clear Lake area voted Trump. The party messaging left little reason for social conservatives to come to the polls and vote down-ballot.
I believe there are a lot of reasons for this failure and the precinct chairs had little or nothing to do with the messaging decisions of the county party. These decisions were made by Simpson, Shuvalov, and their establishment financiers who did not like Trump. The establishment financiers like Norm Adams and Dick Weekley oppose Trump's strong stand on illegal immigration because they need cheap illegal labor to operate their businesses.
Certainly, Ted Cruz and Devon Anderson were problematic to the local election results too. I do think that many precincts were winnable; but, Simpson's messaging killed the party and down-ballot races. Understand these are my conclusions following a cursory review of the canvass and I write this for discussion purposes. We can have a well-funded party lacking principals or a principled party with few funds. It worked for Trump!
I have added some other precinct results I found interesting.
Filed Under: 2016 General Election, Blog, Harris County Tagged With: #NeverTrumpers, Ann Lee, Don Hooper, Donald J Trump, Donald Trump Presidential Campaign, Ed Johnson, harris county, harris county republican party, HD134, Joe Pelati, Kelly Horsley, Mary Jane Smith, paul simpson, sarah davis
About Don Hooper
Don Hooper is an energy executive based in Houston. He operates oil and gas assets in addition to owning interest in power generation. Mr. Hooper has a Bachelor of Science in Political Science from the University of Houston. He has worked as both a political consultant and lobbyist at the local, state, and federal level. Mr. Hooper is a regular contributor to Big Jolly Politics, a local political blog. Mr. Hooper has written extensively on a variety of city, county, and state issues including the City of Houston finances, the Harris County District Attorney's Office, pro-life matters, and other political issues.
https://bigjolly.com/author/don-hooper/
https://twitter.com/DonPHooper
Jeffrey A. Larson says
A few facts.
1. The most popular Democrat in Harris County got fewer votes than Hillary Clinton.
2. The least popular Democrat in Harris County got more votes than the most popular Republican.
3. The least popular Republican in Harris County got more votes than Donald Trump.
4. Turnout is considerably higher in Presidential elections than any other election.
5. Many voters in Presidential years only care about the top of the ticket, and there are relatively few crossover votes (Clinton voters who vote for Republicans or Trump voters who vote Democrat).
Given all that, I don't see how you can possibly conclude, considering how unpopular Clinton was even within her own party, that Donald Trump didn't seriously drag down the vote for Republicans countywide.
Essentially, Simpson and Shuvalov got it right. Running a strong countywide pro-Trump campaign would have hurt the county even worse.
You are correct in asserting that the whole county does not vote as HD 134. It may have been that a targeted pro-Trump message in just those precincts where Trump support was stronger might have resulted in a better turnout in those districts, and better county-wide results. That might have saved Mike Sullivan. I doubt it would have saved any of the Republicans who finished down near Trump.
And let me add that messaging on the county level is overrated. What counts most is organization. Fortunately for us, the Democrats didn't organize very well at all, or we'd have been butchered, to the point where we wouldn't have just been swept, but in serious danger in the next Gubernatorial year as well. They certainly were not organized in 2014, or Gilbert Pena would have never won the seat that he lost this year by 60-40. The fundamental question we should be asking in the wake of this election is this:
Did anyone approach the county party office offering to assist with winning this election, and either get turned away, or shuffled into a role where their efforts went to waste?
If the answer to that is yes, then we need to make serious changes, and that could include new leadership. If the answer to that is no, then we're all engaging in so much scapegoating and fingerpointing.
Sign me, Jeff Larson, precinct 349
Turnout; 60.34{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Trump: 451 votes (58.7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986})
Clinton: 317 votes (41.2{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986})
Don Hooper says
Jeff, I left out certain areas that were heavily Pro-Trump and looked in what I call the swing areas. I and others pointed out numerous times that our party chair would not even mention Trumps' name. Around the country people who followed this path were crushed. If you have read the blog over a four year period Devon Anderson should have been on everyone's radar. I personally have been called by numerous elected officials who said we were completely right about the DA. Rick Perry had a choice between Devon Anderson and another person to replace her late husband. He chose badly that day for everyone in Harris County. Some knew exactly what the outcome would be. Paul listens to Allen Blakemore and that was also once again a disaster. Paul and company have failed to learn the Briscoe Cain lesson from the last election. This lesson is an old one when you look at Chuck Rosenthal and Blakemore's other clients that routinely cost the party elections. I figure one more shallacking should just about do it for Paul. Then we have no one in office but Paul gets to talk data points to people. I will get credit for not writing "I told you so articles".
David Jennings says
Jeff Larsen,
This has me shaking my head:
Essentially, Simpson and Shuvalov got it right.
Every. Single. Republican. Lost.
But Simpson/Shuvalov got it right?
Cypress Texas Tea Party says
Here is another data point for you. I placed a flyer on every door in my precinct and recommended that people review the State of Texas platforms of both parties and vote a straight ticket based upon which party best reflects their values. I did this knowing that I have a very Republican precinct. Here are the results:
Precinct 0923
Votes Cast: 3536
Voter Turnout: 75.96{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Trump: 1782
Clinton: 712
Straight Ticket Voting:
County Wide:
Total: 887,071 – 40.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Republican: 401,663 – 18.4{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Democrat: 472,030 – 21.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Precinct 0923:
Total: 1,923 – 71.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Republican: 1,457 – 41.2{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Democrat: 446 – 12.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
While it is only one data point on this subject, I would like to believe that Precinct Chairs CAN influence the voters in their precincts. With that said, I suggest you quit trying to place blame, (that is very easy to do), and start offering good solid suggestions on how to change the outcome. As Jeff Larson mentioned above, I doubt that any honestly constructive suggestion was ever turned down or ignored by HCRP.
Dave, see above response.
I don't see the positive suggestions in your responses
Dave, you and Paul both never saw the positive responses for four years. Some people have to be utterly crushed to get it, there are some that never do.
Truther1 says
Maybe it's time to replace some precinct chairs.
Good luck with that……..it's hard enough to get the position filled in the first place let alone try to find someone to run against one that is already there………
Tom Zakes says
I pulled the numbers from 6 precincts in all the countywide races, north, south, east, west, white, black and Hispanic. In each race, I just looked at total votes cast for the Republican candidate, not under vote or percentage. The norm in a presidential election is that the Republican nominee for president is the top vote getter, as people cone out to vote for President who do not come out for governor, city council, school board, water district, etc. In NONE of the precincts was Trump the top vote getter. In three of them, he was dead last. Two of those, coincidentally, were Ed Johnson and Ann Lee's precincts.
Yes, there were parts of the county where Trump did not hurt the ticket. But in the rest of it, he was poison.
I'm Tom Zakes and I approve this message.
Can you imagine what it would have been like if those on the ballot with him supported him for President. I do need to back and look at who in the County did support Trump and whether or not they won. I know Valoree did and she won. You are making my argument though. I can not wait to see how well Trump did in the African-American boxes. What A wasted opportunity to break up straight D voting.
I don't know what "African-American boxes" you are referring to but I can tell you that in Sylvester Turner's old district, SRD139, Trump did worse than Romney.
SR139 (President) Rep Dem
2012 12,158 38,945
Gain (Loss) (1,293) 1,187
Garnet Coleman's District:
2016 9,866 46,448
Erich says
Conservative Jewish voters may be reliable Republican voters in national elections, but not all Jewish voters vote conservative. My precinct (0255) is just south of the United Orthodox Synagogue on South Braeswood and Greenwillow (so, plenty of Jewish voters in my precinct) but it is nonetheless a majority Democrat precinct — even though overwhelmingly more Republicans vote in the Republican primary in the precinct than Democrats vote in the Democrat primary in the precinct. Overall turnout in the precinct this November was 74.29{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} (that's 1849 ballots cast by 2489 registered voters).
Including the early vote, Clinton won in my precinct (no real surprise there, as Wendy Davis won two years ago). This November's overall straight party vote ended up being D532, R457, but on Election Day itself, the JBC tapes show that the straight party vote was R171, D125 — and that Trump was the *only* Republican to not win the Election Day vote in my precinct (Clinton 275, Trump 232, Johnson 43, Stein 7, Write-in 16). Even Devon Anderson got 282 votes to Kim Ogg's 270.
Neither Here Nor There says
17{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} 83{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Looking at pcts that are primarily Spanish Surname one will find that Trump received about 17{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the vote. There are not many precincts that are not integrated in the Hispanic community, but those five are close.
Looking at African American Pcts that are almost entirely African American one will find numbers
numbers in the Independence Heights are such as 47 for Trump and 1267 for Clinton.
Mainstream says
I think it is really hard to compare precincts this way. Joe Pelati's precinct is inside the loop along Washington Avenue, probably 20 years median age younger than Ed Johnson's, which is much farther west. Joe's probably has many more apartment dwellers, although I don't know for sure. And Joe definitely works his precinct as actively as any of the precinct chairs.
You have a point. I thought Joe lived further West.
Dan Lan says
Only two of the 50 most populous counties went for Trump,
Tarrant,Tx ( Ft Worth) and Suffolk,NY (Long Island).
Perhaps Steve's or Gary's or Jared"s strategy would have worked better than Paul's,
but given the 20{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} increase in voter registrations, not likely.
Dan, I do not know how you find the answer on whether or not it was a strategic mistake to run against Trump. David Jennings and I have debated the point among-st our selves for awhile. I do know with the hard working work ethic of our community, the recent energy industry layoffs, and the pro-business climate of Harris County the Trump message would have resonated with many. Trump did not need Harris County and anti-Trump forces were many. Establishment Republican themes were the order of the day and with the "Harris County Works" messaging. I do know Harris County is getting lost in the establishment world in an anti-establishment movement and sentiment nationally. The disaster that was the election in 2016 could very likely occur again in 2018 if social and fiscal conservatives are not brought back into the fold. The things to watch or whether or not Patrick primaries Abbott and who the Dems. run for Governor in Texas. Do not underestimate the Dems in Texas to shoot themselves in the foot too. I have stocked up on popcorn.
DanMan on Gun Violence Study Gives Hope for Houston: "After raising our kids in Meyerland (District C) we moved into District J in 2007. We were in the area…" Jan 30, 16:32


If someone asked me to list 10 people I'd love to spend time with, Anthony Bourdain would have easily been top five. (In all honesty, many people have asked me, and Tony was in the top five.) Unfortunately, I never had the honor, and now I never will besides time spent binge watching No Reservations and Parts Unknown.
If you didn't know him as a chef, you certainly knew him as a culinary journalist and personality. "Personality" being a drastic understatement. He was an entertainer. A lover of food, and, more importantly, he adored the peoples and cultures that create the food. A true philanthropist documenting and basking in the beauty of humanity. He was curious, irreverent, unapologetic, self-deprecating at times, hilarious all the time, and a true master craftsman in the kitchen and on the screen.
He leaves us better then he found us. We're more cultured, and more open to trying new things and new ideas. We find beauty in what food really is, pivotal sensory experiences that tap the five senses and the soul. And just when he would have you raise to create an alter and start worshipping culinary brilliance, he'd tell you, "I, personally, think there is a really danger of taking food too seriously. Food should be part of the bigger picture." Reminding us that there is so much more to this life, this world, and those of us who get to inhabit it for a short period of time.
Tony once said, "You learn a lot about someone when you share a meal together." Although I'll never have that honor, I've learned more than I could imagine.
Rest peacefully, Mr. Bourdain, you crazy, amazing sunuvabitch.


What a ride! We have a stable application with a good automated testing setup and static libraries too. We've used Instruments to help find bottlenecks in our application. Throughout this process, we've covered some nice features of Xcode and explored how to navigate through the tool set. Xcode has a lot of features that we haven't covered though. That's what this chapter is about. While the chapter is titled "One More Thing," we're going to cover more than that.


The idea. For every good idea you have, there are hundreds of people out there who have the exact same idea…did someone else already beat you to the punch?
A prudent approach is to research your idea from top to bottom looking to see if your idea already exists. If it does, it's certainly not the end of the world. Simply ask yourself if you can find a unique angle or a different approach to the idea.
Be clear about your 'why'. Embarking on the road to being a coach is one that needs to be considered in detail before setting out. Being a business owner is not for everyone, it's challenging, uncertain, it can be tough financially and it takes work. It's not all champagne and chocolates. However, the upside is incredible satisfaction, control of your own destiny, the ability to earn more than you would as an employee and the freedom to run your business your way.
That said, you need to be clear about 'why' you want to start your own business, going into it with your eyes wide open. What's your purpose for being in business? What is your message? What change are you here to effect? What is your desired outcome?
Who will you serve?Who is your target market? Before you begin creating a marketing strategy, you will need to define your target market. Your target market is the specific group of people you want to serve. Describe your ideal customer. The clearer you are about who you're going to serve, the clearer you can be about your branding, your marketing, your pricing — everything. Be as specific as you can about your customers and learn as much as you can about them.
Why me? How will I stand out? Customers will only stop buying from other businesses in favour of yours if you offer something better or different. Your USP(unique selling proposition) defines what is special about your offering; what customers can't get elsewhere. How can you bring your uniqueness and strengths to the fore as a point of difference?
Business Structure and Security. Deciding how to legally structure your business can be tricky. Will you be a sole trader, have a partnership, a trust or become a company? They each have their pros and cons so it's best to talk to a lawyer or CPA to decide which is right for you.
Your insurance is essential and needs to be firmly in place before you open your doors. If it's not, you run a real risk. As a minimum you will need Public Liability insurance — which protects you from people being injured on your premises. There are other, more specialised types of insurance covering everything from professional indemnity to income protection. Find a great insurance broker, specifically one that deals with businesses and get advice.
Get Your Advisers in Place. You're not an expert at everything.Source your advisers early and get them involved in the set up of your business. Ensure you have a great accountant (ask other business owners for referrals), a great lawyer (especially if you are leasing a premises), a great coach to help develop your niche, branding and marketing plan ahead of time and possibly a few other advisers like a graphic designer, website developer, IT consultant etc. Invest in getting the right advice before you start your business and your chances of success will be dramatically increased and will most likely save you money in the long run.
Your Business Name + Brand. Creating your brand is one of the most important things you can do in your business. You want it to be an accurate representation of you and your services.
Think long and hard about your name: you're going to be stuck with it as rebrands are expensive. It's best to make sure the web domain is also available too. Check at godaddy.com. Consider what your name needs to say about your business and also, what your prospects will be searching for.
The basics things you will need to get started are business cards, electronic letterhead and a basic website or landing page. The rest can come later.
Show Me The Money.We all need money to survive. Do you have cash reserves that will tie you over and allow you to fully launch into your business or is a slower step-by-step approach more your style? How much income do you anticipate making? Is it realistic?
Packaging Your Services.What services will you offer and how will you package them? Will you be doing one to one, face to face training or online offerings? What will you include and what will you charge? Having a clear outline of your offerings and associated contracts at the ready is key to give confidence that you are ready.
Client Attraction.How will you attract customers? What is your go-to-market strategy? Never assume that customers will be beating down your door as soon as you open them. You will need a clear strategy to let the world know what you're doing and how they can work with you. This will involve an online component where you will need to consider having tools to attract and build trust with your prospects such as an eBook, checklist or offering of relevance to them.


Since 1988, the Affordable Housing Tax Credit Coalition (AHTCC) has been at the forefront of efforts to expand and improve the Housing Credit through legislative action. In 2019, the AHTCC is focusing on the five legislative priorities, as adopted by AHTCC membership at the AHTCC Annual Meeting on January 29, 2019.
1. Enact the Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act, comprehensive legislation which includes roughly two dozen improvements to the Housing Credit and Multifamily Housing Bonds that would make these tools more streamlined, flexible, and better able to serve a wider range of populations and communities. We applaud Congress for enacting two key provisions from the Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act in March of 2018. We will continue our efforts to advance the other components of this legislation, particularly the minimum 4 percent Housing Credit rate due to its potential to significantly increase the production of affordable housing.
2. Seek opportunities to further strengthen and increase investment in the Housing Credit and other affordable housing tools like Multifamily Housing Bonds through infrastructure or other legislation that may advance in 2019, such as housing finance reform.
3. Work with the Administration to protect and strengthen investment in affordable housing in any changes to regulations, such as those related to the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA).
4. Educate Members of Congress, their staff, and the Administration on the importance of the Housing Credit and Multifamily Housing Bonds through meetings in Washington, DC, local outreach, and tours of Housing Credit properties.
5. Equip AHTCC members and other affordable housing stakeholders to be effective advocates for the Housing Credit by providing advocacy trainings and materials, timely policy updates, and conferences, meetings, and events centered on the Housing Credit.