text:
forecastingintelligence
A long hard slog
The cavalry is coming
Election vote counting
Election result: the night after
Can the Donald pull it off (the Sequel)?
LOOKINGFORINTELLIGEN… on The cavalry is coming
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Naomi on Election vote counting
Civil disorder
US election update: the current state of play
October 14, 2020 October 14, 2020 forecastingintelligence
So where are we at this point in the race?
Before I start, lets discuss polls.
During the 20th century, American political polling was driven by the Gallop Organisation (Gallop) who were considered the gold standard of pollsters.
However, once mobiles and the internet went mainstream, from the 90's onwards, polling got more complicated and the voters harder to find. The days when most voters were contactable by a landline were over. As landline polling became less reliable with younger folks, the polling, even for experienced professionals like Gallop, got harder.
In 2012, in their final forecast, Gallop projected that the Republican Mitt Romney would win the 2012 election. That was wrong. Obama won comfortably. Shortly after that, Gallop gave up on election forecasting polling.
Since 2014, polling has become increasingly useless as a guide to predicting who will win elections.
We all remember how the polling overwhelmingly indicated that Hilary Clinton would win the presidency. All those state polling which showed her miles ahead of Trump in the Rust Belt days and weeks before the election melted upon impact with electoral reality. Things barely improved in 2018, with polling totally wrong with the Florida election, to give just one example, where the Republican candidate Ron DeSantis won. Ignoring the outlier Trafalgar Group, the average polling lead for his opponent was 5%. DeSantis won the election by 0.4%.
There are many reasons for the decline in polling over the last decade, but a key reason is its extremely difficult to reach voters these days. Many people refuse to answer pollsters, especially Republicans and those living in the countryside. Also, folks who work during the week simply don't have time to answer pollsters. So those pollsters that don't do their work through the weekend, will not get a proportionate sample and capture those voters (often Republican leaning types) who are too busy to waste time answering polling questions (which can run to 72!).
Getting polling right is expensive, takes time (longer than most pollsters allow) and should use multiple ways to get to those hard-to-find voters who are key to an accurate polling sample. Most pollsters simply fail to do that these days which is why they have been unreliable during the previous election cycles. Even those pollsters, Big Data/People's Pundit (PP) and Trafalgar Group (TG), who do a better job than most, aren't perfect.
So, when trying to work out who is going to win an election, I don't rely on public polling. Registration data is a very useful metric. It proved to be more reliable in 2016 then the polling, which overwhelmingly suggested that Clinton would win the election. Only certain states provide party-based registration data, but of the data available its looking good for the Republicans, in particular the battlefield states of Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina.
Primary election data/models are also useful because they are a powerful proxy for turnout and enthusiasm for each side. A few different political analysts use primary data. One is Professor Helmut Norpoth, whose Primary model has forecast the majority of US elections. His forecast, based entirely on the primary election data, is a Trump landslide in November. There are those who critique his model but despite that he has a better track record then most pollsters so I take their criticisms with a pinch of salt.
On a common-sense level, his model makes intuitive sense. If millions of people are prepared to vote for Donald Trump in a primary election with no real opposition (unlike 2016) in historic numbers, its likely that those same Republican voters will come out in big numbers on election day.
A variation of that primary based model is the Washington State primary results.
Henry Colson of the Washington Post reviewed the data and wrote "…the party that led in the primary also won the seat in the general every time. That track record is why the state's recent primary results are so important. With more than 99 percent of the votes counted, Republicans have a higher share of the total vote than they did in 2018 in eight of the state's 10 congressional districts." The conclusions from the Washington State data are;
Republicans are doing 5% better in rural and small metro places compared to their 2018 mid-term performance.
On a national scale Trump will be much more competitive in swing states such as Wisconsin and North Carolina than the polls currently show.
Trump and GOP House and Senate candidates across the country could out-perform expectations once again. Indeed, nine of the House GOP's top Democratic target seats have at least substantial portions of voters who live in rural and small-town areas. Key Senate targets in Maine, Montana, North Carolina and Georgia have similar profiles.
The Republicans are struggling in metropolitan suburbia and haven't improved since the 2018 mid-terms results.
The above data matches what I am reading in terms of registration (GOP are doing much better than the Dems in registering new voters, particularly voters who have never voted before) and the more reliable pollsters out there. Other non-polling metrics also indicate an enthusiasm gap, whether they are Trump/Pence signs which vastly outnumber Biden's or the huge numbers turning up for Trump rallies across America in comparison to the Democrats.
We are still three weeks away from election day but overall, I am still reasonably confident (with a 60% probability) that President Trump will get re-elected.
So, what about the electoral college map? Well, everything I am reading and watching seems to suggest that despite what the mainstream polls are suggesting (remember all those media articles suggesting Texas was going blue in 2016!) The GOP are looking pretty good in Florida, Ohio, Utah, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona (which despite a small shift away in registration numbers should remain red).
Trump's polling among African-Americans and Hispanics are better than 2016 and he is doing particularly well among Cuban and Venezuelans in Florida. In 2016, according to exit polls, Trump got 8% of the African-American vote. Even the mainstream polls suggest that he will do better than that this time around on the back of rising support among working class Black men (between 11 to 15%).
Among Hispanics, Trump polling is now consistently in the 30's, a significant improvement on his 28% share of the Latino vote received in 2016. Rich Baris, has commented that 2020 will be a class/income-based election, with blue-collar voters of different backgrounds and races starting to coalesce around the Republicans whilst the Democrats consolidate among the upper-middle class. This is very much John Greer's thinking – who accurately forecast the 2016 election – that class is the major factor driving an electoral realignment within American politics. The Democrats are increasingly the party of the high-income elites and the upper middle classes whilst the Republican Party under Trump is increasingly a blue-collar and middle-income mass party across the flyover states.
Of course, alignments are a decades long process and don't happen in one election cycle. But the trends you saw in 2016, with working class non-college educated whites shifting to the Republicans whilst college educated white females increasingly moving to the Democrats is likely to accelerate. What is more interesting, and far less picked up by the mainstream media, is the growing support for the GOP among blue-collar minorities, in particular men, from Hispanic and African-American backgrounds. Greer has written for a while that it is this shift that will prove key to Trump's re-election in 2020 which he thinks will be a landslide with approximately 350 electoral college votes.
The other key consideration is turnout. Students are usually a powerful card for the Democrats in getting their vote out. This year, thanks to Covid, colleges are locked down and student registration and turnout will be significantly reduced from 2016. The data from Washington State suggests – and this tallies with what other analysts are saying – that pollsters are under-estimating the turnout among rural non-college educated Republican voters who will come out in droves for Trump.
My forecast, and this is currently interim and not final, is the following:
The Republicans will keep their majority in the Senate.
The Republicans will do better than expected in the House but I'm not in a position, right now, to predict who will definitely win a majority in the House.
Trump is likely to win the southern states of Arizona, North Carolina and Florida. I'm also confident he will win Utah and Ohio again.
Among the Rust Belt states, the election looks very tight at the moment, with both TG and PP in their latest polls showing Trump 2 to 3% behind Biden in the key Rust Belt state of Pennsylvania. The Rust Belt looks competitive but Trump needs to win over the independent and remaining undecided voters to get those key states over the line.
Nevada, with its large Hispanic population, could also be in play. A recent Politico article warned that the Democrats could lose the state and recent chatter online suggests that the Trump campaign are increasingly bullish about flipping the state. I'm going to tentatively predict a narrow Trump win in Nevada.
Outlier states, primarily Colorado and New Mexico, both with large Hispanic populations, may prove closer than the mainstream polls suggest.
New Hampshire is likely to remain Democrat.
So, to summarise, I think the Trump team have around 250 to 260 EC votes that are reasonably secure and a cluster of battlefield states, primarily in the Rust Belt, in play over the next few weeks. If, and it is a big if, the Democrats manage to win the Rust Belt – Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, Joe Biden will win the election.
However, if my hard predictions prove correct, and in addition Trump wins over say 2 out of the 4 Rust Belt states, he wins the election. And that excludes any further wins in the south-west, like Nevada. Despite what the mainstream media and polls suggest, the pathway to a Trump win is wider than they think but this election is not over yet and the winner will likely be decided in the Rust Belt.
I will proceed to make a final forecast shortly before the election.
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22 thoughts on "US election update: the current state of play"
JustPassingThru20 says:
Ok, I had too much coffee so I'm going to comment once again.
First of all, putting aside polling data, let's look at this-
'On a common-sense level, his model makes intuitive sense. If millions of people are prepared to vote for Donald Trump in a primary election with no real opposition (unlike 2016) in historic numbers, its likely that those same Republican voters will come out in big numbers on election day.'
lol It doesn't work like that.. The margins were small for key states, and in the US we've already had demographic changes that favor Biden in these 4 years.
Common sense, you have an incumbent who has presided over a huge death toll in a pandemic he kept publicly minimizing, to the point of making fun of Biden for wearing masks in their recent debate. And then turning around and contracting it himself. Are you going to pretend this crazy stuff didn't happen? Do you think people shrug this off like they did the Access Hollywood Tape? Trump is cratering among seniors now.
Also, what you're ignoring are a lot of very material facts as to 2016
Hillary had the fact Comey was opening an investigation into her, that was big news and hurt her
Hillary had questions about her health (she collapsed at one point, remember)
Jill Stein was getting more support than the Green Party is now. This is an older article, so it doesnt factor events now, but — https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13576798/jill-stein-third-party-donald-trump-win
Hillary's odds were harmed in the fact she was a woman heading the ticket. That's just how things are
Hillary was much more personally disliked than Biden
The state polls were more accurate in 2018 than 16 overall. You can't seem to stop cherry picking lol
That's why the number of house seats gained was close to predicted, as well as the make-up of the senate. No one said polls were perfect. And -again- that's why your buddy Greer made completely off-base predictions in 2018, although his predictions this time round are in outer space.
My prediction- a very decisive Biden win, possibly a landslide. Trump is going to get crushed. Early voting is not looking good for the GOP. People aren't SUPER-enthusiastic about Biden, but they sure as hell are chomping at the bit to boot Trump.
Republicans know this, that's why they are putting up fake ballot boxes, and in Texas, mandating only one box per district. And Trump won't commit to a peaceful transfer of power.
Democratic turnout rates are higher than Republicans in every single county in Florida. 67 out of 67.
Out of the 1,782,663 mail ballots returned & reported, there are 386,799 voters who didn't vote in
Of these new voters, registered
FlaDems are leading registered Republicans by 99,842.
DEM: 189,139
GOP: 89,297
N/3/I: 108,363
https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1316128512143749120
(And for Florida, Trump encouraged his supporters to do mail-in voting)
forecastingintelligence says:
We'll see!
Personally, I find the whole thing fascinating. I've learn't a huge amount about predictive election models, the electoral college voting system, the states and how the polling industry works.
I'm not a crystal ball and could be proven wrong on the day. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised or shocked if Biden wins – as explained in my latest post. However, unlike many, including yourself it seems, I certainly would not be surprised if Trump wins again. These polls are making big assumptions about turnout and who will come out to vote which could prove wrong.
I'm not going to go into the weeds on this. I'm reading across the board and trying to get a handle on it like the rest of us. We'll see in a few weeks what the result is.
Whatever happens, as a political nerd, the whole thing has proven very interesting. Love it 🙂
kaishaku says:
"the huge numbers turning up for Trump rallies" may be misleading, given the ability of BLM to draw throngs.
Yesterday the Bookworm expressed the guess that, while pro-Biden enthusiasm is minimal, passion vs. DJT is huge, such that
"you don't know if that nasal, mumbling person taking the poll is a BLM or Antifa supporter who is creating a database of people to *harass*….
Even if the person on the other end of the phone isn't an Antifa/BLM monster, the polling companies probably have eminently *hackable* databases….
we have to look at where leftist enthusiasm *really* lies. Then, we vote as if our lives depend on it (because they do)…."
See https://www.bookwormroom.com/2020/10/12/are-we-looking-in-the-right-places-for-voter-enthusiasm/ , for pix of huge BLM rallies.
lookingforintelligentdisagreement says:
In 2018, 538 projected 41 Democratic flips in the House. There were 41 flips. 2018 is generally seen as a very accurate year for election polling. Certainly Florida was an outlier in that, but it is cherry picking extraordinaire to only mention it.
I think it is among the great mistakes to see the two old parties as a class division. Exit polls showed Trump voters had a higher median income than Clinton and most working people live in cities and vote Democratic. Just what is the difference then between Sheldon Adelson and Michael Bloomberg? Or a Biden voter in the city and Trump voter in the rural countryside? Culture is the defining division now. That is much broader than racism, though it includes it. It also includes acceptance of homosexuality as a lifestyle, trans too. It means accepting non-binary gender and same sex marriage. Climate change is not technically a cultural issue, but it has become one, as sadly, so has wearing a mask. I don't want to simplify who is a Trump voter as there are plenty exceptions to the above. But Trump's core constituency relies a lot more heavily on retirees with a comfortable nest egg than it does struggling blue collar workers, though there certainly are some.
"polls showed Trump voters had a higher median income than Clinton".
Of course they did, because so many Dem voters are from "the 47%" to which Romney referred.
But, if you take a closer look at real data, e.g. at
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/b8ow3q7r1e/econTabReport.pdf (esp. p. 20),
you see that Dem support among voters making under 50K, *and* those getting over 100K, is quite higher, than among voters making $50,000 – $100,000.
Likewise among women (much under the grip of arch-feminists like Hillary, Pelosi, Feinstein, MacKinnon, Maddow) and those with Graduate degrees (much under the grip of "intellectuals" like Obama, Edsall, Coates, Krugman, Dyson).
So, in a way, Culture is the defining division now, but in the sense that JMG stresses:
those with Graduate degrees (esp. females) get off on sneering at the Archie Bunkers (for the latters' Toxic Masculinity and White Fragility), while counting on their ability to play the Underclass, to keep The Educated in their cushy office sinecures.
For The "Educated", this game is largely, to *avenge* the refusal of the Deplorables' fathers, to back The "Power to The People" Revolution of the 60s.
The 2016 election was mostly a revolt of the Deplorables, vs. what JMG called The Hate That Dare Not Speak Its Name.
JustPassingThru says:
'Culture is the defining division now, but in the sense that JMG stresses:
those with Graduate degrees (esp. females) get off on sneering at the Archie Bunkers'
I'm not a woman and I don't have a grad degree, but I know a number who fit that category. They don't 'get off' on sneering at Trump supporters. They are more dismayed and worried than anything else. It sounds like Greer and maybe you get their impressions of the world from the crap on social media. I would agree the white fragility/toxic rhetoric and all that can be extreme and further polarizing, but thigs rarely come out of a vacuum.
It's really telling how you are not mentioning how it goes both ways, as well. Trump's strongest bloc are the Evangelical Christians, the same people who have spent decades castigating and slandering people who don't share their beliefs (incl other kinds of christians), while trying to use State Power to implement their particular dogmas.
Further, I live in a Northeast Suburb that swung strongly for Trump. I can hear hateful sentiments out of the mouths of people firsthand, including the N word. I'm a white guy and other white people sometimes assume I share their sentiments, perhaps because I don't look like a 'soyboy' or whatnot. This hasn't only happened in bars here, either. That counts as 'sneering', does it not?
A substantial number of Trump voters are uneasy with the demographic shifts in the US. Why pretend it's more about some ivory tower person looking down their nose at them, rather than that?
http://americasvoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/pew.png
When you accuse me of **pretending**, that "it's more about some ivory tower person looking down" than about demographic shifts, you show who you are, for all fair-minded folks to see, most of whom should have no trouble seeing that I "pretended" no such thing.
Typical Lefty straw-man tactics.
Well, sorry about the word pretend, that was ill-chosen. You believe sincerely 100% in what you type. fine.
If you think you're being completely 'fair-minded' yourself, though, maybe reread your post Your characterizations are rather odd. For instance, the female PhDs I know who loathe Trump are not 'under the grip' of Pelosi, they find themselves disagreeing with her on various matters. They simply prefer her positions overall to the GOP. Here's another example-
'For The "Educated", this game is largely, to *avenge* the refusal of the Deplorables' fathers, to back The "Power to The People" Revolution of the 60s.'
I know a number of stridently anti-Trump, northeastern women with advanced degrees. This is not what is foremost on their minds. What is are things like reproductive rights, climate change, health care, and taxation. Also, what on earth makes you think these educated women necessarily have 'cushy' jobs?
Again, as far as sneering, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone more hateful than the evangelicals. Example- I grew up watching the 700 club, and was treated weekly to segments describing other christian sects as demonic, new agers as satanic, simple meditators and people using hypnosis as being demonic, and all the rest. Should they get a free pass for their contempt for other kinds of people?
'Typical Lefty straw-man tactics.'
How do you know I'm some doctrinaire 'lefty'? lol
My personal political views run from very left to moderate to very right, depending on the issue. So, you make as many assumptions as anyone else.
btw I just gotta say- Greer is consistently wrong about events. I mean, he said back earlier this year the virus would fade out by now lol Trump said that too (at least in public). Curious, isn't it? It's like some people are out of touch with reality lol
I personally know three conservatives, all with young children, who never voted for Trump in the last election who are voting for him in this one. The rise of BLM and its violent marxist agenda is seen as an existential threat to our culture, our way of life and our faith. For us Trump is the only thing standing between us and that – and we WILL be voting.. Whether that will be enough to give us the election, I don't know.
Naomi – That's backs up my belief that the divide is cultural, not economic.. Black Lives Matter is a civil rights movement, nothing more. Some of them have radical views, but not all. But everything you say about it was said about MLK too. And there were communists working with MLK, but he wasn't and most weren't. As far as I know, communists are allowed to support civil rights too. Every civil rights group that ever existed was called violent and communist (or anarchist or Bolshevik) at first. Fortunately most Americans have that picture in their mind of a black man pleading for his life as it ebbs away under the knee of the police, with other police watching and supporting, who clearly placed no value on that life. No, most police wouldn't do that, but they do seem to look the other way for those that do.
"most police wouldn't do that, but they do seem to look the other way for those that do."
If so, it happens that most protesters wouldn't do that (e.g. burn police stations), but they do seem to look the other way for those that do, while the MSM all-but cheerleads for those who do.
As Naomi suggested, BLM and its violent marxist agenda (and MSM cheerleaders) are reasonably seen as an existential threat.
Until today's Lefties get in the mood to address those concerns, with more than just the typical ad hominems/ straw men/ diversions, these Lefties aren't remotely worth talking to.
"everything you say about it was said about MLK…."
That's totally irrelevant to what's popping now.
As long as you Lefties keep harping on stuff from 60 years ago, when most of us non-Left were not alive or of age, we see little choice but to bet, that you'll not rest until our forebearers' missteps are totally avenged, and we're all destroyed.
It's something of a gas, to see today's Lefties continue to outsmart themselves: too clever by half!
'As Naomi suggested, BLM and its violent marxist agenda (and MSM cheerleaders) are reasonably seen as an existential threat'
lol this is some heated rhetoric
New research, based on almost 900 politically-motivated plots and murders in the US since 1994, found only one person's death in the last 25 years was linked to "antifa" or anti-fascists, and the person who died was the attacker (there was 1 antifa murderer more recent than this study_
In comparison, over that same period, 329 murders were linked to the far-right.
When the label was broadened from anti-fascists to left-wing violence, it found 21 victims had been killed since 2010, compared to 117 in right-wing violence in the same time period.
Jihadist groups were responsible for 95 people's deaths since 2010.
-Center for Strategic and International Studies from July 2020
A review of more than 7,000 protests shows that 96 percent involved no property damage or injuries to police.
Police were reported injured in 1 percent of the protests. A law enforcement officer killed in California was allegedly shot by supporters of the far-right "boogaloo" movement, not anti-racism protesters. The killings in the line of duty of other law enforcement officers during this period were not related to the protests.
Only 3.7 percent of the protests involved property damage or vandalism. Some portion of these involved neither police nor protesters, but people engaging in vandalism or looting alongside the protests.
In short, our data suggest that 96.3 percent of events involved no property damage or police injuries, and in 97.7 percent of events, no injuries were reported among participants, bystanders or police.
https://www.heraldnet.com/opinion/comment-summers-blm-protests-werent-as-violent-as-portrayed/
"it happens that most protesters wouldn't do that (e.g. burn police stations), but they do seem to look the other way for those that do, while the MSM all-but cheerleads for those who do."
I happen to think that is a good point. There are protesters who are too tolerant of destruction by others. But if so, why do you think BLM has a violent Marxist agenda if it's just some of them being too tolerant? There have been hundreds if not thousands of BLM protests and most have not been destructive at all, just like most encounters with police do not involve brutality. Neither group is bad on the whole, but only one of them has state approval to coerce. My point is just that some of the public is responding to the newest civil rights groups like they did almost every one before it.
"do you think BLM has a violent Marxist agenda….?"
The useful Idiots, maybe not, but the leaders, definitely.
The brass can't always play all of the useful Idiots into rioting, but maybe they don't need riots all the time, as long as the MSM slobbers all over whatever riots can be ginned up.
"Neither group is bad on the whole, but only one of them has state approval….", and functions under rules derived from court rulings (Google "Use of Force Model", by Marsh & Desmedt), and gets trained at academies run by cronies of Dem mayors.
Leadership is primary and decisive, but the MSM says boo about any of this.
They only care, about spinning everything for their pals.
Check out Taibbi, on "Hate Inc."
This2ShallPass says:
LOL After spending months/years chortling about a Trump re-election Greer isnt even allowing discussion of the election in his open post this month.Guess he sees the writing on the wall…and Trump himself wants states to stop counting ballots on Nov 3 lol. That is not how state laws operate. He knows hes losing.
I think that's a tad unfair.
Greer has consistently stated that he thinks Trump will comfortably win the election and the only question mark for him is whether the Trump manages to win the popular vote and House or not.
Any debate will go down to "what about the polls" – Greer, doesn't subscribe much to public polling (nor did he throughout 2016) and his analysis on why Trump will win comfortably is based on fundamentals.
e.g. Trump has benefited the blue-collar class vs v vs the comfortable 20% who are increasingly represented by the Democratic Party. As Trump eats into traditional Democratic voting groups like the African-Americans, Hispanics and builds support among blue-collar white workers, that's how he will win the election.
Essentially, this election is driven by the new class dynamics going on.
A *tad* unfair?
Greer's post, since just yesterday, already has 256 Comments.
The prior week's posts had totals of 267, 142, and 178 Comments.
So, he wisely guessed, that there indeed would be plenty of grist for his readers' mills, apart from the election.
But, leave it to his Lefty critics, to try to *spin* this wise decision, as a bid to hide from "the writing on the wall".
If Biden wins, look for these Lefties to hyper-institutionalize their love for deployment of ad hominem ploys, vs. anything other than abject slobbering upon the Party Line.
' I think that's a tad unfair.
? He made Trump a substantial part of his recent work and didn't hesitate to talk about it or let others talk about it. He has a book coming out about the 'magical' reasons Trump won 2016. Obviously, now that it looks like Trump will lose, he doesn't want to talk about the election. I fail to see what is unfair in pointing this out.
'Any debate will go down to "what about the polls" – Greer, doesn't subscribe much to public polling (nor did he throughout 2016) and his analysis on why Trump will win comfortably is based on fundamentals.'
All the debate there has previously been about the polls? No, so this doesn't make sense.
'Essentially, this election is driven by the new class dynamics going on.'
Seniors shifting to support of Biden isn't because of 'class dynamics', but the pandemic.
and KAISHAKU said…
'If Biden wins, look for these Lefties to hyper-institutionalize their love for deployment of ad hominem ploys, vs. anything other than abject slobbering upon the Party Line.'
So much unconscious irony therein…
and just a hint so you can appear less ranty- being opposed to Trump doesn't necessarily mean one is a 'leftist'.
I suppose Greer favors astrology to polling? The fundamentals do not at all favor the incumbent. Nearly a quarter million dead and yet he says it's over, solved. Even a growing GDP won't make up for that, especially with super spreader rallies there for all to see.
Factually incorrect.
Greer's analysis is based on class which he went into great detail in 2016 (see https://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-01-21/donald-trump-and-the-politics-of-resentment/) and has nothing to do with astrology.
You have a right to your own opinions but please to not spread misinformation about others.
Greer has said numerous times in his blog that his basic analysis hasn't changed since 2016. Trump appeals to those outside the 20% of Americans who have benefited from the neoliberal policies pursued by both parties for the last 30 years (until 2016 when Trump took over the GOP) and the only difference from 2016 is that Trump will pick up more minority blue-collar voters then in 2016.
Well he has used astrology to predict election results, I saw that in 2018, when I was still following his blog.
It does appear that Trump is going to get slightly increased support from Latino and Black voters, if you believe the polls. But this is not a class issue, it is culture. It is essentially all men and I saw a blog of black men saying they would vote for Trump who didn't do so in 2016, and not one of them mentioned jobs or the economy. Mostly they talked about controlling their own destiny. It appeared to follow from the self-help concept that has a long history in African American thought. The irony is that Biden is doing better among white voters than Clinton did in 2016, especially white women, and that appears to be more than making up for the increased support among some minority voters. But again, that is if you believe the polls. Either way, we will know pretty soon.
Btw, I also reject the idea that Trump has moved away from neoliberal policies. The tax cut was pure neoliberalism, as is most of his environmental policy. His trade wars are not, but they have not really been effective. The Clintons and Biden also have a strong neoliberal history, but Biden is a weather vane and is being pulled away from it. If he is elected, we will see how that ends up. But with the exception of trade, Trump is about as pure an advocate for neoliberal economics as we have had in the White House in a long time. His cabinet is full of them. Biden could not be more neoliberal than Trump, and the Democratic Party grassroots is moving away from that. They rejected Bloomberg easily and Democrats are no longer so dependent on big money, as we have seen with the massive grassroots fundraising via ActBlue.


text:
Jelena Aleksic
The playing with fire, poetry, and the powerlifting path to success
The difficulty of fleeing from bombing and war to find safety in a faraway country forged Jelena Aleksic's determination to make the most of life, a principle which has guided her ever since.
'Even though I was in a strange place, and only young, I realised there were opportunities all around me,' she says. 'So I told myself I was lucky, given what was going on at home, and would make sure I took them.'
Jelena grew up in Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, in the 1990s, when the region was plagued by conflict. The country was ruled by Slobodan Milosevic, a brutal dictator, and under economic sanctions. That backdrop formed one of Jelena's earliest memories, and first challenges in life.
'There were power cuts, so we used to meet up with neighbours and play cards together to pass the time. New banknotes were being printed continuously because of hyper-inflation. I used to help my grandmother with counting the zeroes to go shopping. I remember we got as high as a 50 billion dinar note.'
Jelena's family actively protested against Milosevic, and she joined in the protests throughout her childhood.
'We knew it could be dangerous, because he'd send the police against demonstrators,' she says. 'But it was the right thing to do.'
The protests led to a personal discovery which became a touchstone of Jelena's life; the power of truth. Despite thousands of people turning out on the streets, the state run media ignored the demonstrations.
'I wanted to be a journalist. To tell the people what was really going on. I realised truth has the power to change the world. That truth could eventually win through against the lies.'
Jelena helped out at one of the radio stations that were broadcasting uncensored news. But the fighting worsened, and by 1998 NATO was threatening to bomb Belgrade.
Her mother, a civil engineer, was offered a job in Britain, at Aberdeen University. And so, aged 12, Jelena moved to Scotland.
'It was a really big decision to make,' she says. 'It was a different culture, a different language and so difficult at first. I had no friends and felt lonely. But my mum and I supported each other, and we got through it.'
Jelena believes it was her refusal to give up that helped in those troubled times. 'I'm curious by nature, which I think is a good thing. So I went out and learnt English, and got to know people, and the place. It took a couple of years. But when I made a good friend at school, at last life was feeling much better.'
She went to university in Edinburgh, to study Genetics, 'because understanding the building blocks of life are one of the great truths of science.' But there was a twist to her degree days.
No longer interested in becoming a journalist, Jelena found another new way to hunt down the truths of life.
'I joined the philosophy society, and ended up running it. The first thing I had to deal with is that it was a couple of thousand pounds in debt, which is a lot when you're a student. But we set about fundraising and soon sorted that out.'
Jelena was elected President of the society. And that became a formative moment in her life.
'It was my first leadership role and I was very anxious. But I really enjoyed it and I realised I had the talent to be a leader.'
She graduated with a first class degree, applied to the University of Cambridge for a PhD, and won a prestigious scholarship in genetics from the Medical Research Council. Once more, Jelena's fascination with finding the truth came to the fore, but this time in yet another form.
'I was studying the early development of the brain,' she says. 'I was intrigued with understanding how life develops. It's such a profound thing. I think scientists have a duty to discover the truth.'
Not content with unravelling the mysteries of life, Jelena found a new challenge to occupy her, and a dangerous one. The art of fire performance, which combines dance moves with spinning flaming objects like hoops and fans.
'I saw someone doing it at a party in Edinburgh, and told myself I had to give it a try,' she says. 'But I wanted to do it in front of thousands of people.'
Months of hard practice culminated in a moment Jelena will never forget. Leading a team, performing outside King's College, as part of the celebrations of Cambridge University's eight hundredth anniversary.
'It felt fantastic. There were thousands of people there and it was such a buzz. I was so proud of what we achieved.'
But on the academic front, life for Jelena was proving more worrying, leaving her with another problem to solve.
'I realised I didn't really like lab work. I'm more of an ideas person than actually doing the experiments. So it was hard to keep going.'
Again however, rather than give up, she changed direction in the search for fulfilment. Jelena shifted her PhD into computational biology, analysing complex data, and received her doctorate.
Alongside her work in academia, she searched out another new challenge. During her doctoral studies, Jelena had heard about, and found inspiring, a charity, TREND; Teaching and Research in Natural Sciences in Africa. Now suitably qualified, she investigated further, and couldn't resist the appeal.
'I loved it, the work was so fulfilling,' she says. 'It felt like I was really making a difference.'
She taught courses in Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya, helping African researchers to understand the latest scientific techniques.
'Empowering people and giving them the chance to unlock their potential was inspiring. It felt like an impactful thing to do.'
Back in Cambridge, Jelena rediscovered an interest in the field of rare diseases. It was an area she had experienced during her PhD. 'I admired the dedication and determination of the scientists,' she said. 'Trying to help people who are suffering and often badly served by medicine because their illnesses are so rare.'
She started a company, GeneAdviser, to enable faster diagnostics of rare genetic conditions. Starting from nothing, Jelena created an online market place for clinical genetic tests, raised hundreds of thousands of pounds, built a team, and protected her technology.
'It was initially a success, working with 15 different countries,' she says. 'But advances in DNA sequencing meant the process became cheaper, which undercut our business model. The work wasn't wasted, though. We told the NHS all about the system and they saw its potential, so they took it on. I'm proud to say they still use it.'
The company closed, but, as always, making the most of any opportunities, Jelena wrote a book about her experiences, The Entrepreneur Survival Guide.
'Writing helps me process what I've been through, but I wanted to help others too. So much of the journey of starting a business is hard, and I wanted others to have the benefit of what I learnt.'
Jelena's latest adventure is to set up SparkBio, a life sciences consultancy in Cambridge. 'There are a lot of potential connections between business and science, which could help all of society,' she says.
'I always think that if you can't do some good in life, what's the point of getting out of bed in the morning?'
Alongside her work, Jelena writes and performs poetry, something she sees as another incarnation in the pursuit of the truths of life. 'It helps me to understand myself, others, and the world around me.' And as if that wasn't enough to fill her time, she has taken up a new hobby – powerlifting.
'It feels good for women to strength train,' she says on being able to squat 170kg. 'There are a group of us who train together, and it's empowering to be strong.'
In a rare moment of calm, reflecting on her life, and all her many experiences, Jelena has some simple tips for success and personal fulfilment.
Story was written by Simon Hall.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
'HEROIC'
Helen McCrory was still doing charity work in final weeks before death from cancer aged 52
Mary Gallagher
13:20 ET, Apr 16 2021
Updated: 14:38 ET, Apr 16 2021
HELEN McCrory was still promoting her charity work in the final weeks before her death aged 52.
Her last TV appearance was in March on Good Morning Britain with her husband Damian Lewis.
The star, known for her roles in the Harry Potter series and Peaky Blinders, spoke from her home with Damian, 50, by her side.
Wearing a brown and white polka dot blouse, Helen appeared in good spirits as the couple chatted about their roles as ambassadors for the Prince's Trust.
Halfway through the interview GMB presenter Kate Garraway asked Helen: "Are you alright Helen? You sound a bit croaky, have you got a sore throat?"
She jokingly replied: "No, I've got children! Thank you for asking."
"You've been shouting at them!" Kate replied.
Helen and Damian wed in 2007Credit: AP
Helen answered: "And no make-up artist and no hairdresser! So if there's a young person out there who would like a bit of help, phone up Prince's Trust and then come straight over here!"
As she spoke Damian looked lovingly over at his wife.
With the clip circulating on Twitter, one person said: "Just heard the news then watched this back. It's so obvious now how poorly she was....and the way Damian looks at her. Oh my heart. Beautiful lady inside and out. Let's all find our inner Polly to celebrate this bloody brilliant woman! Fly high Helen xx
Helen was most famous for playing Narcissa Malfoy in Harry Potter, Cherie Blair in The Queen, and Aunt Polly in Peaky Blinders.
Talented Helen as Aunt Polly in Peak BlindersCredit: Alamy
Earlier today her devastated husband announced the news that his wife had passed away peacefully surrounded by her family.
Homeland star Damian shared on Twitter: "I'm heartbroken to announce that after an heroic battle with cancer, the beautiful and mighty woman that is Helen McCrory has died peacefully at home, surrounded by a wave of love from friends and family.
"She died as she lived. Fearlessly. God we loved her and know how lucky we are to have had her in our lives. She blazed so brightly. Go now, Little One, into the air, and thank you."
Helen in 2014 at the Peaky Blinders series 2 launch in LondonCredit: Alamy
Caring Helen and Damian, who live in Suffolk, also helped feed frontline healthcare workers during the Covid pandemic.
They raised for more than £1million to help get hot meals delivered to hardworking staff with the help of powerhouses of the food industry.
Speaking about her charity work in March last year, Helen said: "Since we launched the campaign, we've received messages of appreciation for NHS workers from people across the country, which we've shared with them.
"For those working with infectious diseases, these messages of kindness and gratefulness – it's about the safest hug you can give an ITU worker at the moment. It's important for them to know, when they're knackered, that they're not alone and we're thinking of them."
Peaky Blinders bonus scene reveals why Polly Gray turns on Tommy Shelby in series five
BRITNEY'S FURY
Britney slams Jamie Lynn as 'f**king hateful' & 'selfish little brat'
The star was born in Paddington in 1968 and spent a year living in Italy before returning to study acting at the Drama Centre in London.
She began her career in theatre where she was praised for her roles in Trelawny of the 'Wells' and Uncle Vanya.
Helen then appeared in a string of films - including Interview with the Vampire in 1994 and The Queen in 2006 where she played Cherie Blair.
In 2007, she tied the knot with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood star Damian Lewis at Kensington and Chelsea Registry Office.
Damian with their two children, Gulliver and Manon
The couple appeared on Good Morning Britain last month to discuss their charity work
PRIMA DONNA PETE
Pete is 'acting like a DIVA' at SNL & 'misses rehearsals' to be with Kim


The Department of Korean Language and Literature in Sungkyunkwan University invites applicants for a TENURE TRACK position in All fields of "Korean Language and Literature" to start in September 1, 2019.
Qualified candidates should register their applications in S.K.K.U Pool System.
– Successfully conduct and publish scholarly research in area of specialization; Someone who can conduct in-depth research and teaching on new issues in international Korean language and literature field.
– Faithfully Contribute to departmental and university service belonging to R&D project at home and abroad : Other duties as assigned.
– Take a leading role in international students guidance (mainly Chines Students) and international cooperations.
– High levels of proficiency in academic Korean and English; Well oriented in education, departmental meetings and university works in Korean Language.
Introduction to Korean Studies, Korean Classics, Modern Korean Literature, Korean Linguistics, History of Korean Literature, Korean Popular Culture, Issues of Korean Cultures, Glocal cultural Contents and Korean Wave, Korean Language Acquisition and etc.


text:
Level III Ecoregions of North Dakota
Title: Level III Ecoregions of North Dakota
Publisher: U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) - National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL)
Data type: vector digital data
Data location: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/wed/ecoregions/nd/nd_eco_l3.zip, http://edg.epa.gov
Ecoregions by state were extracted from the seamless national shapefile. Ecoregions denote areas of general similarity in ecosystems and in the type, quality, and quantity of environmental resources. They are designed to serve as a spatial framework for the research, assessment, management, and monitoring of ecosystems and ecosystem components. These general purpose regions are critical for structuring and implementing ecosystem management strategies across federal agencies, state agencies, and nongovernment organizations that are responsible for different types of resources within the same geographical areas. The approach used to compile this map is based on the premise that ecological regions can be identified through the analysis of patterns of biotic and abiotic phenomena, including geology, physiography, vegetation, climate, soils, land use, wildlife, and hydrology. The relative importance of each characteristic varies from one ecological region to another. A Roman numeral hierarchical scheme has been adopted for different levels for ecological regions. Level I is the coarsest level, dividing North America into 15 ecological regions. Level II divides the continent into 50 regions (Commission for Environmental Cooperation Working Group, 1997). At Level III, the continental United States contains 105 regions whereas the conterminous United States has 85 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2011). Level IV ecoregions are further subdivisions of Level III ecoregions. Methods used to define the ecoregions are explained in Omernik (1995, 2004), Omernik and others (2000), and Gallant and others (1989).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2011. Level III and IV ecoregions of the continental United States. U.S. EPA, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Corvallis, Oregon, Map scale 1:3,000,000. Available online at: http://www.epa.gov/wed/pages/ecoregions/level_iii_iv.htm.
Ecoregion maps assist managers of aquatic and terrestrial resources to understand the regional patterns of the realistically attainable quality of these resources
Electronic versions of ecoregion maps and posters as well as other ecoregion resources are available at:  http://www.epa.gov/wed/pages/ecoregions.htm. Except for the Great Lakes, waterbodies were merged with surrounding ecoregion polygons, especially along coastlines. Ecoregions were digitized at 1:250,000 scale and are intended for large geographic extents (i.e. states, multiple counties, or river basins).  Use for smaller areas, such as individual counties or a 1:24,000 scale map boundary, is not recommended.
Keywords: Ecosystem, Environment, Management, Natural Resources, Surface Water
Map projection
Map projection name: USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic USGS version
Standard parallel: 29.5
Longitude of central meridian: -96.0
Latitude of projection origin: 23.0
False easting: 0.0
False northing: 0.0
East -96.554509 (longitude)
Attributes of nd_eco_l3.shp
Shape_Leng
Length of feature
Attribute values: Positive real numbers that are automatically generated.
Shape_Area
Area of feature in internal units squared.
SDTS Feature Description
Description of point and vector spatial objects in the data using the Spatial Data Transfer Standards (SDTS) terminology.
Spatial data transfer standard (SDTS) terms
Feature class
Type: GT-polygon composed of chains
13) An old North Dakota Level IV error was corrected, dissolved Level IV polygons to Level III, repeated steps 9-12.


text:
T20I Tri-Series in South Africa 2023
South Africa's Squad for Tri-Series announced, Dane Van Niekerk excluded
Neha Shetty
Cricket South Africa has announced a 17-player squad for the upcoming tri-series that will feature India and the West Indies slated to begin on 19th January 2023 and will go on till 2nd February 2023.
South Africa's Squad for Tri-Series announced, Dane Van Niekerk excluded. PC: Getty Images
This series will serve as practice for the teams who will ideally look to try out strategies and different combinations ahead of the ICC Women's T20 World Cup that will kick off on 10th February 2023. Clinton Du Preez, the selector ahead of the series was quoted saying, "As we go into our final preparation for the ICC Women's T20 World Cup, I believe that the tri-series is a great opportunity for us to close out the squad. We are quite excited and looking forward to the tri-series and the players that have been included in the squad. It's (also) a great opportunity for everybody to really come out and stake a claim for the World Cup."
Here is the 17-member squad chosen:
Suné Luus (Captain), Chloé Tryon (Vice-Captain), Anneke Bosch, Tazmin Brits, Nadine de Klerk, Annerie Dercksen, Lara Goodall, Shabnim Ismail, Sinalo Jafta, Marizanne Kapp, Ayabonga Khaka, Masabata Klaas, Tebogo Macheke, Nonkululeko Mlaba, Tumi Sekhukhune, Delmi Tucker, Laura Wolvaardt
The squad features two uncapped players with Annerie Dercksen and Tebogo Macheke making it in the squad on the back of dominant performances in the domestic circuit.
The squad features the return of the famed duo of Shabnim Ismail and Marizanne Kapp who were a part of The Hundred's second-time successful team, The Oval Invincibles and with the same duo besides Chloe Tryon, Laura Wolvaardt who also plied their trade in the WBBL added a lot of firepower to this side.
Also Read: 2nd ODI: Aliya Riaz's 81 in vain as South Africa win second ODI in a row against Pakistan
In a surprising move on the grounds of fitness, Dane van Niekerk missed out on getting selected as she was not able to match up to the national standard in the physical battery assessment. Her game was affected by a freak injury that sidelined her for a significant period of time in the past year and continues to haunt her. Commenting on the same in a press release, Convenor of Selectors, Clinton du Preez was quoted saying "Dane has progressed very well and it's a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, she did not meet the minimum national standards and therefore is ineligible for selection and we will continue working on her fitness as we continue through the tri-series, to assess her eligibility for the World Cup."
A look back at South Africa's past performances is not very promising as they have been unable to advance past the knockouts of the major multination tournaments in recent years and make it big. This T20 World Cup appears to be an ideal opportunity for them to make history by capitalizing on their home advantage. In the first game of the tri-series, they will face India. The Women in Blue, who came second at the CWG 2022, enter this series after a 1-4 setback to Australia at home last month.
I am a first year postgraduate student pursuing a MA in Media and Communication Studies at Christ University, Bengaluru. I am a podcaster, blogger and an avid cricket fan. When not glued to cricket matches, you can find me submerged in books and thinking about cricket all the time.
Also Read: Match 36: Marizanne Kapp's 4 Wicket Haul restricts Hurricanes to just 96 Runs
Tags: Anneke Bosch, Annerie Dercksen, Ayabonga Khaka, Chloe Tryon (vice-captain), Delmi Tucker, Lara Goodall, Laura Wolvaardt, Marizanne Kapp, Masabata Klaas, Nadine de Klerk, Nonkululeko Mlaba, Shabnim Ismail, Sinalo Jafta, Sune Luus (captain), Tazmin Brits, Tebogo Macheke, Tumi Sekhukhune
West Indies U19 on a roll with a crucial win against Indonesia by 77 Runs
Ireland's Captain Amy Hunter out of U19 World Cup due to an injury to her left thumb


text:
Load images and detect corners using the code from my [Corner Detection](https://github.com/wxue/Corner-Detection), which I improved here by adding local maximum.

#### Extract Patches

To extract patches (by 5*5), and form a descriptor simply by vectorizing the image pixel value in raster scan order. Store data in "Patches_left" and "Patches_right".

#### Get Fundamental Matrix

* Make pairs and imply the corre2 function to evaluate the correlation, and select pairs with lager correlation.

* Filter the pairs to make sure each point in one image only be paired with one point in another image.

* Imply 8 point RANSAC 10 times as an example(30~50 would be better. I choose 10 only for running time sake).

* Let the obtain fundamental matrix test all the paired points, evaluate its weights.

* Use the obtained fundamental matrix to select the correlation pairs once again.

* Run 8 point RANSAC again to get a better fundamental matrix.

> Credits to [Professor Hua](http://www.cs.stevens.edu/~ghua/)

### License

The MIT License (MIT)

Copyright (c) 2014 Weiyu Xue

Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:

The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
copies or substantial portions of the Software.

THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
SOFTWARE.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Immunohistochemical staining of human lung cancer tissue using ERK1 (phospho-Thr183-185) antibody.
Flow cytometric analysis of unstained cells using ERK1 (phospho-Thr183-185) antibody.
Western blot analysis of mouse lung tissue (Lane 1), mouse kidney lysates (Lane 2) using ERK1 (phospho-Thr183-185) antibody.
Flow cytometric analysis of U251 cell using ERK1 (phospho-Thr183-185) antibody.
Inhibition of endocan attenuates monocrotaline-induced connective tissue disease related pulmonary arterial hypertension.


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Have you utilized your mobile phone today? PC? Drank your espresso from a mug or worn a bike head protector? Provided that this is true, you, alongside a great many purchasers around the globe, have touched the result of science.
The commitments of the matter of science go past regular family unit things. Science is a main impetus behind the development and extension of the U.S. economy, and the potential for future monetary development of our industry is exponential.
Over 96% of every single made great are straightforwardly touched by the matter of science. The matter of science is a $797 billion Enterprise giving more than 810,000 talented, great paying American occupations—really astounding, isn't that so?
Michigan is the fifteenth biggest science creating state and wages are 25% higher than the normal assembling work.
Investigating Michigan—Anderson Development Company is situated inside southeast Michigan. Some significant urban communities in this district is Adrian, Coldwater, Hillsdale, Jackson, parts Michigan of Lansing, Monroe, Saline and Tecumseh.
Inside this region of Southeast Michigan, the matter of science utilizes 2,614 people and pays $211M in compensation. The normal wage inside the matter of science is $80,506—71% higher than the state normal.
Why are these numbers essential? There is a reestablished aggressiveness in America's synthetic industry. This is making employments, develop payrolls and produce new duty income which is certifying the concoction business' part as the foundation of our nation and state's financial future.
Tuning in: Listen to what the client require with the goal for them to be effective and completing for them. The huge contenders regularly won't tune in to what their clients truly require.
Adaptability: Different clients require diverse things. The enormous contenders regularly wont' adjust to them. Quite a while back, Henry Ford told individuals that they could have any shading auto they needed as long as it was dark. This approach never again works, however some greater organizations still think this way!
Responsive: Big dinosaurs can't move rapidly! By being responsive, we can move significantly faster. We need the items they require, when they require them and how they require them!
Individual: We can offer our clients a warm, individual ordeal instead of simply being a number. We enable our clients to take care of their issues and give them a decent ordeal. Clients will recollect this!
Reliable: Our clients need to believe us and have confidence in us. As a littler association, we act morally and reliably by they way we treat our clients. There is no space for blunder here.
Your security state of mind presumably goes back to when you were a youngster. The greater part of us were shown basic wellbeing hones at a youthful age, for example, looking both routes previously crossing a road or not to play with matches. As grown-ups, we are cautioned not to smoke, not to be out in the sun too long without sunscreen, utilize alert while working devices, and so forth. Despite the fact that these tenets are normal and surely understood, a large number of us may overlook or disregard them every once in a while.
At work, a few representatives disregard security rules since they are in a rush, figure mischances won't transpire, they are worn out, or they are indiscreet and additionally careless. Each time a representative takes part in dangerous acts, they are going up against a bet wagering circumstance that a mischance won't happen. Here at Anderson Development Company (ADC), we are not willing to bet our wellbeing, our lives, or the possibility to make hurt the group.
Anderson Development Company is a dynamic and mindful individual from the group in which we work. We are focused on the insurance of nature, wellbeing, security, and security of our representatives and partners. We will meet or surpass all prerequisites for consistence with controls representing the tasks of our offices.
Workers of Anderson Development Company assume a critical part in guaranteeing wellbeing in our assembling activities. We utilize preparing projects to guarantee that administrators are able to do securely working hardware. Representatives are enabled to close down their procedure or take the essential activities on the off chance that they perceive a perilous condition. ADC utilizes profoundly prepared experts also. There are various components associated with our procedure wellbeing administration frameworks including: arranged deterrent upkeep, process peril investigation, pre-startup security audit, and administration of progress.
Anderson Development Company is likewise dedicated to guaranteeing the security of chemicals. This incorporates meeting the greater part of the prerequisites of administrative offices, for example, OSHA, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Transportation, and the American Chemistry Council.


text:
Where to be and what to watch...
By Mark Lasswell
Alas, Lance Armstrong didn't make it into the five finalists for last night's unveiling of the Discovery Channel's "Greatest American," but take heart, Mr. Yellowjersey: Greatest American's ratings have been ungreat. Besides, you're still No. 1 in Discovery's programming heart. "Lance Week" starts tonight at 8 (ET) with The Science of Lance Armstrong. Don't expect an exposé about the "science" behind his amazing powers; Armstrong bikes for the Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team. As it happens, the Tour de France starts Saturday. Comcast's brawny Outdoor Living Network, suffering Lance-in-France Fever as well, plans 300 heures of live coverage.
Gladiator or Troy? Thumbs up or thumbs down? ABC sweats the response to the first night of the $30 million, six-hour miniseries Empire (two-hour premiere, 9 p.m. ET) set in ancient Rome. Meanwhile, HBO would like to feed ABC execs to the lions for stepping on its $100 million 12-part sword'n'sandals epic, Rome, coming this fall. We may have to punch out during Empire's last half-hour to watch Comedy Central. Haven't seen Stella yet, but we're giving it a chance just because the comedy about three suit-wearing goofballs (premiere, 10:30 p.m. ET) had the moxie to advertise on Gawker.com. In New York today, representatives from AOL, Microsoft, Texas Instruments and a raft of other tech-centric companies convene for the Entertainment Technology Alliance's three-day ETA Summit at the Javits "Hey, at Least We're Not the Jets Stadium Complex" Convention Center.
The Humanitas Prizes will be handed out today to luncheoneers at the Hilton Universal hotel in Los Angeles. The prizes honor the writers behind movies and television "that affirm the human person, probe the meaning of life, and enlighten the use of human freedom." This year—and we find this is difficult to believe—there won't be an award in the 30-minute TV category. Humanitas prez Frank Desiderio explained: "We couldn't find three shows that demonstrated great writing and keen insights into the human condition." A pity. Terry George, nominated in the film category for Hotel Rwanda, would have found something to chat about with the gang from Joey.
MTV's gay network launches today, and for that we are extremely grateful—because it afforded the opportunity to ask the B&C art department for the Logo logo. With that off our checklist, now we can turn to another journalistic dream: reporting about a person whose name is Photo Caption. (For more on Logo and the prospects for a spate of new gay TV networks, see page 29.)
Over the anguished cries of the Don't Count Us Out crowd, Nielsen switches over to all–local-people-meter measurement today in Philadelphia and Washington. We were going to make a crack about Michael Copps' having a lot of time on his hands to watch TV in Washington, since his FCC seat was due to expire yesterday, but we hear the Democrat is a lock to be renewed for another five years. The Bush administration is just waiting to bundle him with a couple of Republican nominees so the whole group will roll through the confirmation hearings faster than Lance Armstrong chasing down some poor bastard in the Pyrenees.—Mark Lasswell
E-mail info for B&C Week to b&cweek@reedbusiness.com
Where to be and what to watch…


text:
May 16, 2014 Wayne Northey
Chapter Forty-Five
In 2007 I first published Chrysalis Crucible, a coming-of-age novel about young Andy Norton who goes off to West Berlin in the early seventies to evangelize – with all the answers. You can find a page about it on this website.
I've republished it (2015) as Kindle eBook and Amazon print-on-demand.
Andy discovers in West Berlin instead that not only are people not asking the questions to which he has answers, he is being confronted with a barrage of questions coming at him so fast and furious like clay pigeons in a skeet shoot, that he has no time let alone capacity to keep up with answers.
Not least is this the case temporally with massive State violence blessed by the Western church. Not least is this the case spiritually with a doctrine of hell of eternal conscious torment, the Ultimate Cosmic Violence, and blessed by the Western church. (See for example "Farewell, Rob Bell".)
Andy writes at times to a future self, "Professor Norton" in a bid for answers. The Professor is as silent as God. Or is he/He?
One such letter follows an intense conversation with young medical doctor Hans Beutler, who shakes Andy to the core about church endorsed violence in the West. (Please also see: Chapter Forty-Eight.)
Dear Professor Norton:
Dan told me once that he could deal with the straight-on attacks against the faith fairly easily. Most had to do with starting-point questions, epistemology. It was the fifth-columnist stuff that got to him. Not least for him the question, if Christianity is so true, why is the church so false?
Well, I have a variation. If Christianity is about Love Incarnate, why is its face to the world through the centuries so often one of Hate Manifest (American "Manifest Destiny," for instance)?
I thought I knew an easy answer. "They're not true Christians in those churches." Besides the sheer arrogance of that, it's a tad more troubling if I listen to Hans Beutler, whom I'm sure you know. Turns out that Christianity's vaunted love ethic—love of God, neighbour, and enemy—isn't quite that way in the Church after all. That contradiction is well disguised under the Church's doctrine of the State. The real bare-bones ethic goes something like this: "Love your enemies, do good to them. But the real enemies, the ones who actually might kill you, whom you would like to kill, who might do you harm, whom you would love to throttle, does the Church have good news for you! Jesus allows you to turn them over to the State to do an end-run around everything He taught." You see, there's the "personal gospel," and there's the "State gospel." And everything holding you back from evil toward the enemy personally is handily available through the State. Just a tad more bureaucracy! "Murder" is the State's supreme prerogative, according to Evangelicals. Oh, the word is dressed up in more elegant semantics like "capital punishment" and "just war." But it is all killing. Murder in the first degree—in the worst degree.
Please click: Chapter Forty-Five
Chapter Forty-Eight In 2007 I first published Chrysalis Crucible, a coming-of-age novel about young Andy Norton who…
Chapter Sixty-Three In 2007 I first published Chrysalis Crucible, a coming-of-age novel about young Andy Norton who…
Chapter Seventy-Three In 2007 I first published Chrysalis Crucible, a coming-of-age novel about young Andy Norton who…
Chapter Sixty-One In 2007 I first published Chrysalis Crucible, a coming-of-age novel about young Andy Norton who…
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Three Questions: A Short Story Leo Tolstoy. The piece is perfectly self-explanatory. Please click on: Three Questions
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chrysalis crucible, hell, heresy, peace, punishment, spirituality, theology, Western Christianity, Western spirituality


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Great "identifier" patch for one's Trauma Bag, IFAK, or the awesome MDP. Allows for instant identification when needed in any operational environment.


Says this experience cultivated her curiosity and made her comfortable as an observer and a listener.
Attended Marymount University where she received her degree in business.
After graduating, she had her sights set on working for the pharmaceutical company, Merck—she was initially rejected, but eventually got the job.
She eventually realized that at Merck she was just a number and lacked impact, so she began working for smaller and smaller companies until the path opened up for her to start her own business.
She eventually sold both companies for over $1.5 billion—in 2017, she successfully re-acquired Sprout Pharmaceuticals and launched Addyi to the market on her own terms.
She is also the founder of The Pink Ceiling, which invests in companies founded by or making products for women and provides access to mentors, business guidance, and investment opportunities.
I work to break barriers by investing in and mentoring other women so they can be successful.
Learn from the best. Go where you need to go and do what you need to do in order to work for the people that can help get you ahead. Cultivate your curiosity and be open to learning things. One of the biggest things you can learn as an entrepreneur is how to sell. Don't focus so much on your "personal brand" to where you lose the substance of what you are delivering. Build your confidence and don't let discouragement shake it.
You have to network like crazy. Tell everyone you meet about what you are doing and be unabashed about it. You have to learn to lose the fear of sharing your goals.
"You need to have options. You can't just pick one thing."
One of my professors and mentors was concerned that my desire to work for Merck wasn't going to pan out and the fact that I didn't have any backups wasn't the right thing to do. Her intentions weren't malicious, she was just concerned that I was setting myself up to fail. She was right initially, but eventually, I did end up working for Merck. I was determined enough that I made it happen for myself no matter what.
I moved a lot when I was a kid. I was always the new kid that didn't fit in and wasn't accepted. I learned how to embrace being on the outside and listening. I also cultivated an insatiable curiosity as a result.
I work in a male-dominated industry. When I was starting out, I couldn't look up in the organization and see anyone who looked like me. So, I started looking left and right to find mentors and support from the people around me.
Kenneth L. Wright, Jr.Founder & CEOKleanCollar, Inc.