text:
I Want a Rolling Robot
Wednesday I had another check-up after my surgery earlier this year. I took the bus there, and as such got there early. I had breakfast at the cafe in the hospital. Bread with ham, pineapple, grilled cheesse and apple chutney. Very tasty 🙂 Then I headed for the clinic for the appointment. The scars look really nice, the nipple grafts look good. The left one is even responsive. The only thing that bugs me is that the end of the scar, under my arm, is pointing outwards. The doctor agreed and we decided to get that fixed. Luckily that's a small job that can be done at the clinic with just some local anesthetic. Just have to wait a while for it to be scheduled.
I then went to work for a few hours after which I met up with Gert to go see Star Wars: The Force Awakens. I really enjoyed the movie. I've seen the other Star Wars movies once, years ago. I can't remember everything anymore but I know enough to be aware of the general story. Plus, with Star Wars being so ingrained in pop culture, it's hard to miss.
The new movie introduces new main characters while leaving some room for golden oldies to return. I like Rey and Finn and I love the new robot. I'm definitely keeping the BB-8 plushie from last year's Nerd Block 🙂 The sequences with the golden oldies, Leia, Hand, Chewie, were charming and I hope we do see more of them in the next movies. I'm less impressed with Kylo, he seems too wimpy. But maybe he'll grow into his boots. Other than that it was a fairly straight forward story with fun action sequences and good visuals.
Then yesterday Ingrid and I went to the Oosterpoort for a concert show by The Kik. We'd been talking about going to this, and then Ingrid gave me the ticket for my birthday. I'd not heard of them before, but the description of what they do sounded fun. They're a band that plays music from and inspired by the fifties, sixties and seventies. They write their own stuff, but also cover existing songs from that time. The show wasn't just a concert but a way of walking through their inspirations.
The stage was dressed with a handful of doors in the back, and a cabinet with vinyls at the front. They would pick a record from the cabinet and tell something about the artist or the song and then play a song by that artist, or something of themselves inspired by. Occasionally a doorbell would ring and there'd be a cutout of an artist behind one of the doors as an introduction to another song or bit of talking. It was an energetic and fun show, and I got to hear a new side of Dutch music.
Posted in: General, Photos	Tagged: Food, Friends, Gert, Ingrid, Me, Medical, Movies, Music, Nerd Block, Oosterpoort, Photos, Review, Transgender, Transitioning
Do not follow where the path may lead. Go, instead, where there is no path and leave a trail.
— Ralph Waldo Emerson/George Bernard Shaw


text:
Q: Pandas Sliding/Rolling Window over Irregular Time Series Please excuse poor style and inefficient solutions.  All help is greatly appreciated.
Context:
Attempting to isolate the best rate of cycling performance gain over a 6-week block over the course of one year. Performance is measured as the maximum effort produced for any given time period for one cycling record, i.e. 1, 5, 20 min effort, etc...
Tasks:

*

*Create rolling window

*Best fit trend line for each window

*Keep window corresponding to largest positive slope

Data:
ap1 = np.array([[datetime(2015, 10, 17, 12, 45, 13),
   datetime(2015, 10, 18, 11, 56, 35),
   datetime(2015, 10, 20, 9, 24, 52),
   datetime(2015, 10, 23, 9, 27, 12),
   datetime(2015, 10, 24, 12, 26, 33)],
[281.0, 343.0, 270.0, 312.0, 320.0],
[246.0, 305.0, 260.0, 283.0, 289.0],
[236.0, 250.0, 239.0, 257.0, 245.0]], dtype=object)

Issue: I am currently stuck on Task 1.  I have been attempting to follow user2689410's response to computing a rolling_mean over irregular time series. I am hoping to grab his data slicing method.
I only want to slice the dataset into rolling intervals of 45 days.  Below is the progress:
from pandas import Series, DataFrame
import pandas as pd
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import numpy as np

idx = ap1[0]
idx = pd.Index(idx)

ap1=np.transpose(ap1)
ap1=pd.DataFrame(ap1, index = idx, columns = ['date', 'cp1', 'cp2', 'cp3'])
ap2=ap1.drop('date', 1)

ap2 = DataFrame(ap2.copy())
idx = Series(ap2.index.to_pydatetime(), index=ap2.index)

for colname, col in ap2.iteritems():
    dslice = col[idx-pd.tseries.frequencies.to_offset('42D').delta:idx]

The for loop gives me the error:
Traceback (most recent call last):
File "<stdin>", line 2, in <module>
File "/usr/local/lib64/python2.7/site-packages/pandas/core/series.py", line 642, in __getitem__
return self._get_with(key)
File "/usr/local/lib64/python2.7/site-packages/pandas/core/series.py", line 647, in _get_with
indexer = self.index._convert_slice_indexer(key, kind='getitem')
File "/usr/local/lib64/python2.7/site-packages/pandas/indexes/base.py", line 1208, in _convert_slice_indexer
indexer = self.slice_indexer(start, stop, step, kind=kind)
File "/usr/local/lib64/python2.7/site-packages/pandas/tseries/index.py", line 1497, in slice_indexer
return Index.slice_indexer(self, start, end, step, kind=kind)
File "/usr/local/lib64/python2.7/site-packages/pandas/indexes/base.py", line 2962, in slice_indexer
kind=kind)
File "/usr/local/lib64/python2.7/site-packages/pandas/indexes/base.py", line 3141, in slice_locs
start_slice = self.get_slice_bound(start, 'left', kind)
File "/usr/local/lib64/python2.7/site-packages/pandas/indexes/base.py", line 3084, in get_slice_bound
slc = self.get_loc(label)
File "/usr/local/lib64/python2.7/site-packages/pandas/tseries/index.py", line 1419, in get_loc
stamp = Timestamp(key, tz=self.tz)
File "pandas/tslib.pyx", line 405, in pandas.tslib.Timestamp.__new__ (pandas/tslib.c:9932)
File "pandas/tslib.pyx", line 1475, in pandas.tslib.convert_to_tsobject (pandas/tslib.c:26432)
TypeError: Cannot convert input to Timestamp

Where do I go from here?

A: Nowadays, pandas.DataFrame.rolling can deal with irregular time series.

A: I found a solution, it is not pretty but works.  Please provide feedback for increasing efficiency.  This solution provides me with arrays of subarrays corresponding to the moving window for a particular column
 idx = ap2[1]
 idx = pd.Index(idx)

 ap2 = np.transpose(ap2)
 ap2 = pd.DataFrame(ap2, index = idx, columns = ['date', 'cp1', 'cp2', 'cp3'])
 ap2=ap2.drop('date', 1)
 ap2=ap2.astype(float)
 ap2 = DataFrame(ap2.copy())
 dfout = DataFrame()

 idx = Series(ap2.index.to_pydatetime(), index=ap2.index)

 window = '42D'

 idxwindow = idx[idx[0]:idx[len(idx)-1]-pd.tseries.frequencies.to_offset(window).delta]

for i in ap2:
    exec(i +"= []")
for colname, col in ap2.iteritems():
    for i in idxwindow:
        result=col[i:i+pd.tseries.frequencies.to_offset(window).delta]
        result=np.stack((result.index.date, result.values), axis=-1)
        if colname == 'cp1':
            cp1.append(result)
        elif colname == 'cp2':
            cp2.append(result)
        else:
            cp3.append(result)

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Santo Domingo, ou Saint-Domingue en français, peut désigner :

Toponymes

Santo Domingo : une commune de la province de San Antonio.

Santo Domingo : une municipalité du département d'Antioquia ;
 Santo Domingo de Silos : une municipalité du département de Norte de Santander.

Santo Domingo : un canton de la province d'Heredia ;
 Santo Domingo : la capitale du canton de Santo Domingo.

Santo Domingo : une ville de la province de Villa Clara.

Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas : une province créée en 2007 ;
 Santo Domingo : un canton de cette province ;
 Santo Domingo de los Colorados : ville de la province de Pichincha.

Santo Domingo : une station du métro de Madrid ;
 Santo Domingo de la Calzada : un comarque de la région Rioja Alta ;
 Santo Domingo de la Calzada : une commune du nord de l'Espagne ;
 Ciudad Santo Domingo : un lotissement de la commune madrilène d'Algete ;
 Santo Domingo de las Posadas : une commune de la communauté autonome de Castille-et-León, dans la province d'Ávila ;
 Santo Domingo-Caudilla une : municipalité de la province de Tolède, dans la région autonome de Castille-La Manche.
 Santo Domingo de Silos (Espagne)
 Tour de Santo Domingo de Silos, monument historique du quartier historique de Cordoue.
 le , un sommet des Pré-Pyrénées en Aragon.
 la Sierra de Santo Domingo y Lucientes, une chaîne de montagnes en Aragon.

Santo Domingo Suchitepequez : ville du département de Suchitepéquez ;
 Santo Domingo Xenacoj : une ville du département de Sacatepéquez.

Rio Santo Domingo (Papaloapan), une rivière du Mexique affluent du Rio Papaloapan
Rio Santo Domingo (Chiapas), une rivière du Mexique affluent du Rio Grijalva

Santo Domingo, une municipalité du département de Chontales.

un corregimiento du district de Las Tablas dans la province de Los Santos.

Santo Domingo : une municipalité de la province d'Albay.
 Santo Domingo : une municipalité de la province d'Ilocos Sur.
 Santo Domingo : une municipalité de la province de Nueva Ecija.

Saint-Domingue : capitale du pays ;
 Santo Domingo : une des provinces du pays.

Santo Domingo : ville et chef-lieu de la municipalité de Cardenal Quintero dans l'État de Mérida ;
 Santo Domingo : capitale de la paroisse civile d'André Bello dans la municipalité de La Cañada de Urdaneta dans l'État de Zulia ;
 Santo Domingo : l'une des 3 paroisses civiles de la municipalité de Fernández Feo dans l'État de Táchira ;
 Río Santo Domingo : rivière du pays.

Autres
 Air Santo Domingo : la compagnie aérienne nationale de République dominicaine ;
 Santo Domingo, navire de guerre espagnol, construit en 1781

Voir aussi

Homonymie de toponyme

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


David Galbraith has spotted the arrival of blue pin markers on google local maps representing sponsored hotel locations, as well as the usual red ones.
This was always going to happen, all that mapping data from Teleatlas, Digitalglobe, Navteq etc costs money…I predicted this back in June of last year, and to their credit Google seem to be approaching this is a restrained way so far.. please lets hope we don't end up with little "Golden Arches" at every McDonalds.
Previous PostPrevious Offical Google Earth for the Mac !!


text:
gusztavvargadr_windows_features '' do
  features_options node['gusztavvargadr_vs']['2010_requirements']['features']
end

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Celtic captain Scott Brown expects to sign a new contract soon.
Brown's contract expires at the end of the season but talks have begun over an extension.
And the 33-year-old midfielder believes he has several more seasons left at the top level.
"There is no problem between myself and the club," he told STV. "They know I'm going to sign. It's just a matter of time for us to get it done.
"We first started talking just before international break. It will be done in the next couple of weeks hopefully.


The available compilers are C, C++, Fortran77 and Fortran 90.
There are several implementations of compilers on the CCR cluster. These are GNU, INTEL and PGI.
The GNU compilers are in the default path. A module must be loaded to set the paths for the INTEL and PGI compiler suites.
where -o specifies the executable file name, which in this case would be exec. If the -o flag is omitted, then the default executable is a.out.


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text:
Louise Karoline, prinsesse af Hessen-Kassel, (28. september 1789 – 13. marts 1867) Datter af Karl af Hessen-Kassel og Louise af Danmark. Gift med Vilhelm af Slesvig-Holsten-Sønderborg-Glücksborg 28. januar 1810.

Børn
 Prinsesse Marie (Louise Marie Frederikke), født 23. oktober 1810, død 11. maj 1869.
 Prinsesse Frederikke (Frederikke Karoline Juliane), Hertuginde af Anhalt-Bernburg, født 9. oktober 1811, død 10 juli 1902.
 Hertug Carl af Glücksborg, født 30. september 1813, død 24. oktober 1878.
 Hertug Frederik af Glücksborg, født 23. oktober 1814, død 27. november 1885.
 Prins Vilhelm, født 10. april 1816, død 5. september 1893.
 Kong Christian 9. af Danmark, født 8. april 1818, død 29. januar 1906.
 Prinsesse Louise, Abbedisse i Itzehoe, født 18 november 1820, død 30. november 1894.
 Prins Julius, født 14. oktober 1824, død 1. juni 1903.
 Prins Hans, født 5. december 1825, død 27. maj 1911.
 Prins Nikolaus, født 22. december 1828, død 18. august 1849.

Referencer

Kilder

Eksterne links

Huset Hessen-Kassel
Kongelige fra Danmark
Hertuginder af Glücksborg


text:
By Patricia Miller Archive, Beyond Belief: Election 2016, Patricia Miller, RD Blog, Religious Liberty, Sexuality/Gender June 17, 2016
U.S. Bishops' Silence on Guns and Gays
Machine Gun Jesus, by Barbosa Prince.
The U.S. Catholic bishops met in Huntington Beach, California this week, just days after the Orlando massacre. And despite the fact that the church's most powerful prelates were all gathered together at a time when the nation is desperate for pastoral leadership to counter the vitriol spewing from Donald Trump and his ilk, this was the official, and only, USCCB statement on the massacre released by conference president Archbishop Joseph Kurtz:
Waking up to the unspeakable violence in Orlando reminds us of how precious human life is. Our prayers are with the victims, their families and all those affected by this terrible act. The merciful love of Christ calls us to solidarity with the suffering and to ever greater resolve in protecting the life and dignity of every person.
It's an amazingly tepid, generic statement in the face of such tragedy that touches on two areas of special concern to the bishops: guns and gays. While the bishops' conference officially backs gun control proposals put forward by President Obama and the Democratic Party, it has put almost no energy into pushing for them. Imagine if Catholic bishops rallied from the pulpit against politicians who failed to vote for common sense gun control legislation with the same energy they put into opposing John Kerry and other Catholic politicians who support abortion rights? Or with the sustained effort they put into opposing the contraceptive mandate in the Affordable Care Act, with their Ad Hoc Committee on Religious Freedom, their annual "Fortnight for Freedom" campaign and countless statements and interventions by leading bishops?
The bishops' silence on animus toward the LGBT community is more understandable, although no more acceptable, given their own role in fostering it by suggesting that the legalization of same-sex marriage was some kind of cultural Armageddon and that refusing to accommodate gay people is a protected form of religious martyrdom. Only Bishop Robert Lynch of St. Petersburg, Florida, had the guts to admit that the Catholic Church was complicit in fostering a culture of hostility toward the gay community:
…sadly it is religion, including our own, which targets, mostly verbally, and also often breeds contempt for gays, lesbians and transgender people. Attacks today on LGBT men and women often plant the seed of contempt, then hatred, which can ultimately lead to violence. Those women and men who were mowed down early yesterday morning were all made in the image and likeness of God. We teach that. We should believe that. We must stand for that.
By comparison, in his statement on the massacre, San Francisco Archbishop Salvatore Cordileone revealed the dark heart of what so many in the church's leadership believe to be the truth about LGTB individuals:
…we stand in solidarity with all those affected by this atrocity, regardless of race, religion, or personal lifestyle.
That's right, it's too bad your "personal lifestyle" got you killed. Just as the Catholic Church still insists on referring to LGBT individuals as "people who experience same-sex attraction," the church offers its sympathy with a not-to-pointed reminder that ultimately it believes homosexuality, bisexuality and transgenderism are lifestyle choices that can be rejected, and indeed must be rejected, to be fully accepted by the church.
Similarly, Kurtz's official statement, with it's reminder of how "precious life is" and call for "protecting the life and dignity of every person," is a not-so-subtle reference to abortion. Nothing like using a national tragedy that has absolutely nothing to do with abortion to push your anti-abortion agenda, boys.
But conservatives within the church will continue to push the line that it's an "abortion mentality"—as well as a lack of respect for the special sacredness of heterosexual, procreative sex—that allows all forms of violence to flourish, ultimately making gay people, not guns, responsible for the violence visited upon them.
abortiongunslgbtOrlando Massacreu.s. conference of catholic bishopsusccb
Patricia Miller is a Washington, DC–based journalist and the author of Good Catholics: The Battle Over Abortion in the Catholic Church. Her work at the intersection of politics, sex and religion has appeared in The Atlantic, Salon, The Nation, Huffington Post, RH Reality Check and Ms. Magazine.
Latest Posts By Patricia Miller
Anti-Choice Groups Prove It's Not Just About Abortion Anymore
Catholic Bishops Fund Anti-Choice 'Clinics' Set to Receive Trump Title X Funding
Catholic Bishops' Religious Liberty Fight Enables Anti-Jewish Discrimination (Updated)
Previous articleAfter Orlando: Love Wins, But When?
Next articleThe Complicity of #NeverTrump Evangelicals in a Demagogue's Rise
Rev. Raphael Warnock Tweets 'I am a pro-choice pastor' and Suddenly a Public Figure's Religion is Fair Game
LGBTQ Victory at Christian Azusa Pacific U. Leaves Significant Questions About Future and Faculty Security
Patricia Miller is a Washington, DC–based journalist and the author of Good Catholics: The Battle Over Abortion in the Catholic Church. Her work the intersection of politics, sex and religion has appeared in The Atlantic, Salon, The Nation, Huffington Post, RH Reality Check and Ms. Magazine.
"Anyone interested in discovering how and why the abortion issue is so inextricably tied up with Catholicism will be fascinated by this important work." —Publishers Weekly
University of California Press (2014)
Patricia Miller's Recent posts
New Survey: Catholic Women "Disengaged & Disengaging" — And Don't Listen to US Bishops
Will 2018 Be the Year of Catholic Health Care Dominance?
The Surprising Catholic Roots of the War on Xmas
Catholic Universities Facing a Fork in the Road on Gender & Sexuality: The Church or the Culture
Why Notre Dame's Contraception Flip-Flop Undercuts Bishops' Religious Freedom Claims

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Newspapers still don't get it
The impartial reporter is either a coward or an imposter
TV is dead, long live the Internet
It's a tempting conclusion to draw after a week that saw Norway's leading media group sell its stake in the country's biggest commercial TV-station, TV2, and one of Scandinavia's most successful internet entrepeneurs launch plans for a new online TV-channel.
Of course it's not that simple, and Schibsted's managing director has berated Norway's strict cross-ownership laws for making it impossible for the company, who is the country's biggest media group, to pursue a majority stake in TV2. Still, the deal signals a clear strategy shift, and even though company spokesmen have denied Schibsted is looking to sell its Swedish TV-assets as well, Kjell Aamodt, Schibsted's CEO, has indicated that the company is more focused on transmitting live pictures via platforms other than TV. "We don't talk about a TV-strategy anymore, we talk about a live pictures strategy. We are in the process of positioning ourselves both within web- and IP- TV," he told E24. Schibsted sold its 33,3 stake in TV2 to the Danish Egmont group and Norwegian newspaper group A-pressen, the latter incidentally owned by the Labour Union and Telenor (whose majority owner is the Norwegian state).
In a separate move, the Danish Skype-founder and millionaire Janus Friis this week unveiled his plans to launch his third major international project: an online TV-channel expected to go live by New Year (link in Danish via Berlingske, requires subscription). If the Skype-success is anything to go by, this will be an interesting one to watch...
Update 30/10: Anders Gerdin, editor-in-chief of Schibsted-owned Aftonbladet, indicates that Schibsted may sell its minority stake in Swedish TV4: 'It's pointless to have a minority post in a TV-channel,' he is quoted saying to DN (no direct link available).
Update 6/11: Schibsted sells its shares in TV4 to Nordic Broadcasting, of which Bonnier and Proventus each own half.
Posted at 12:06 PM in Acquisitions, Media, Television | Permalink | Comments (0)


These words and symbols came through the mind of David, who was a warrior King, and the geography was also part of his Kingdom, hence the coverage of tribal territories by King David in his poetic reflections on his God. I like the geographical image presented of named regions, mostly named after Israel's tribes or non-Israelite people groups, who have settled in the region at the time of David's Kingdom. You can see most of the places named in these verses on the map of Israel after Moses returned the children of Israel to the promised land. In these verses, the tribes of the map are symbolic accessories, e.g., helmet and scepter, of the God of the Israelites, at the time of King David.
Looking at the map above, the tribe of Ephraim is settled north of Judah, where David was headquartered. Moab, not a tribe of Israel, is southeast and below it, Edom, not a tribe of Israel, but descendants of Esau, is below Moab. The twelve tribes are descendants of the sons of Esau's twin brother, Jacob, renamed "Israel" by God.
Much more could be written about these verses and have been over the many years since the Psalm was written. Historians of the Ancient Near East agree that David probably existed around 1000 BCE.
Believe it or not, for the past 10 years at least, I have read through all 150 Psalms every 7 weeks on my Bible reading program, and each day, I generally find something new to think or wonder about, or something old to re-ponder and appreciate. My Daily Bible Reading plan is posted on this blog in the "Bible Reading" tab above. Of course, I have my days of spiritual dullness and distraction, but on those days, the Psalms and other Bible verses I read are uplifting and help me stay the course of my now senior days, so to speak. Were I not thinking about the verses as I am reading, it would otherwise be a 150 part mantra for meditation since I am at peace when I read these.
Some of the Psalms are difficult and jarring. Most of the various emotions, desires and acts of man are represented in the Psalms and not always appealing, but these are contemplations, prayers, praises and petitions to God by imperfect and sinful mankind, a portion who recognise God's existence and sovereignty.
Over my 47 years a Christian, I have read books and commentaries about the Psalms. My favorite is C.S. Lewis's book, "Reflections on the Psalms" which I have read at least 3 times I can recall over the past 25 years since I first bought the book. It helps to have a knowledge of the Old Testament and the history of the times for a deeper experience in reading, but that took many years of study and reading as a layman, and not as a Biblical scholar or minister of the Word.
I read the Old Testament and the Psalms through my Christian lens, but appreciate the Psalms as they gave meaning to the Jews of the Old Testament times as well, to the best of my ability as a 21st Century man now.
A study Bible is very helpful. In the past, I have used a New King James Study Bible, an NIV Study Bible, and for the past five years I have used an English Standard Version (ESV) Large Print Study Bible which I love. The pages are covered with my handwritten notes and yellow highlighting covers a multitude of verses. However, that education and experience of mine is not necessary for experiencing the joy and comfort of the Psalms. Most any committed Christian and observant Jew who reads them regularly can tell you that. Even for those who do not believe, there is poetic and intellectual pleasure in reading the Psalms.
Note: The ESV Large Print Study Bible is expensive. There is a less expensive paperback ESV Study Bible here.


text:
Resistant Wastewater
Researchers find an antibiotic resistance gene in wastewater treatment plants in northern China.
Abby Olena
Wastewater treatment plant in ChinaYI LUO, NANKAI UNIVERSITYMany genes can cause antibiotic resistance in bacteria, but New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase 1 (NDM-1) is especially dangerous because it allows microbes to destroy beta-lactam antibiotics, which are typically one of the last lines of defense against drug-resistant infections. Now, researchers have found NDM-1 in wastewater and sludge from two treatment plants in China. Their work was published in Environmental Science & Technology Letters earlier this month (December 4).
Researchers from Rice University in Houston, Texas, and from Nankai and Tianjin Universities in China sampled wastewater and sludge that had been treated by chlorination in wastewater treatment plants in northern China. They performed PCR on the samples and showed that NDM-1 was present—the water contained more than 1,000 gene copies per milliliter and sludge contained 40 million to 60 million copies per mL. The scientists also isolated a bacterial strain carrying...
"It turns out that [the bacteria] transfer these genetic determinants for antibiotic resistance to indigenous bacteria in the environment, so they are not only proliferating within the wastewater treatment plant, they're also propagating and dispersing antibiotic resistance," coauthor Pedro Alvarez of Rice University said in a statement. "This calls for us to take a look at these breeding grounds for antibiotic-resistant bacteria and how we might be able to create better barriers than chlorination."
The study "sounds a huge alarm," University of Washington Professor of Allergy and Infectious Disease Jeffrey Duchin, who was not involved in the research, told Chemical & Engineering News. Duchin added that the more prevalent these resistance genes are in the environment, the more opportunity they have to spread. "It would be a disaster," he said.
Using Machine Learning to Battle Antibiotic Resistance
Plastic Pollutants Pervade Water and Land
2020 in Scientists' Own Words
The Scientist's LabTalk - Episode 3


Who are the Minimalists? They are Joshua Fields Millburn & Ryan Nicodemus and they write about "living a meaningful life with less stuff." They have been featured everywhere from TODAY to NPR to the Wall Street Journal. Their new movie Minimalism: A Documentary About the Important Things is showing Thursday, June 2 at 7:30 PM at the San Francisco AMC Van Ness 14 movie theater. The event is hosted by the Bay Area Chapter of NAPO. There are a limited number of seats, so reserve your tickets at Gathr Films. See you there!


text:
Sen. Scott Brown: New rules for teens behind the wheel
By Sen. Scott Brown
Obtaining a driver's license is a milestone for teens. Not only is it considered a rite of passage, but it is a step toward self-sufficiency as well.
However, as a parent I cannot help but be concerned for the safety of young drivers. In a recent study of all traffic accident fatalities in the Bay State in 2005, almost 20 percent involved at least one 16- to 20-year-old driver. In light of this, the Governor signed the Junior Operator's Bill into law on January 3, 2007. It establishes stricter penalties for offenses committed by teen drivers and increases requirements for obtaining a license.
The new law will affect any teen who has not yet obtained a license, including those who have their permits. Many of the stricter penalties were put into effect on March 31, 2007 and changes to the driver's education requirements will be put into effect on September 1, 2007.
The law is designed to ensure that young drivers are aware of the responsibilities that are associated with driving and that they are receiving the best training possible. A new, standardized curriculum for driving schools has also been developed, and the Registry of Motor Vehicles (RMV) is currently working on a final test to be taken by students upon completion of their driver's education course.
In the past, the requirements for basic driver's education included 30 hours of classroom instruction, six hours of behind-the-wheel training, and six hours of in-car observation of another student driver.
Now, as implemented by changes to the Junior Operator's Law taking effect on September 1, 2007, prospective teen drivers are required to have 12 hours of behind-the-wheel training, 40 hours of parent/guardian-supervised driving, or 30 hours of parent/guardian-supervised driving if the teen completes an advanced driver training course, and parental participation in two hours instruction on driver's education curriculum.
Also, the new changes affect permit holders who are caught driving without an adult or between midnight and 5 a.m. For a first offense, the penalty is a 60-day license suspension, increasing to a 180-day suspension for a second offense, and a one year suspension for a third offense. Fines can range between $100 and $1,000. The penalty is the same for Junior Operators (teens under 18 years of age) driving between 12:30 a.m. and 5 a.m.
Similarly, the penalty for Junior Operators driving with passengers under 18 who are not family members, unless accompanied by a licensed driver 21-years-old or older with at least a year of driving experience, is a 60-day license suspension for a first offense, a 180-day suspension for a second offense, and a one year suspension for a third offense.
The penalties for a first offense of drag racing are a $250 fine, a one year license suspension, and $500 fee to reinstate one's license. A first offense for speeding results in a 90-day license suspension and $500 reinstatement fee.
In addition, Junior Operators cited for either of these offenses must retake the driving exam and complete Driver Attitudinal Retraining and State Courts Against Road Rage courses. Speeding fines are $100 for the first 10 miles per hour over the speed limit and $10 for each addition mile over the limit after that.
The new law is designed to help drivers gain experience and allow them to become cautious drivers. In order to protect teens, we are working hard in the legislature to ensure that young drivers understand that driving is a privilege and that it must be taken seriously.
To learn more, visit the Massachusetts Registry of Motor Vehicles at www.mass.gov.
State Senator Scott Brown represents the Norfolk, Bristol and Middlesex district in the Senate.


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Vijay Varma Starts Shooting For 'Hurdang'
Darpan News Desk IANS, 05 Jul, 2019
"Gully Boy" actor Vijay Varma has started shooting for Nikhil Nagesh Bhatt's next directorial "Hurdang" in Prayagraj.
"We are all so excited to shoot this one. The workshops and reading were amazing. I'm feeling pretty nervous to play this extremely layered character and I hope to do justice," Vijay said in a statement.
"Hurdang" is being touted as a love story set in the backdrop of the 1990s, a time when the youth fought for their rights and spent a great deal of time to find self-realisation and had a strong desire to stand up for rights.
The film also stars Sunny Kaushal and Nushrat Bharucha.
Vijay is also set to star in Mira Nair's "A Suitable Boy", which is his first international project.
He will be seen playing the character of Rasheed, a student at Brahmpur University and also an Arabic teacher. The shooting of the series is set to begin this September.
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Sun Devils, with new coach, roll into College World Series
Bob Baum, The Associated Press
TEMPE, Ariz. – An awkward offseason coaching change and looming NCAA punishment did nothing to diminish the power of the Arizona State baseball program.
When the colorful, sometimes outrageous Pat Murphy was shown the door by athletic director Lisa Love, the job went to Tim Esmay, a former Sun Devils player and an assistant coach at Arizona State for the last nine years.
As unassuming as Murphy is outspoken, Esmay has the Sun Devils rolling into the College World Series for the 22nd time. With a gaudy 52-8 record, Arizona State is the tournament's No. 1 seed, a team that won its first 24 games this season and is 5-0 in the NCAA tournament. The Sun Devils will play Clemson in Omaha on Sunday.
Now Esmay is seeking to do something Murphy couldn't accomplish in his 15 years at the school, win the College World Series.
"There's something special to this group," Esmay said, "and that's what it's been about. It's about these kids and how they are relentless and how they prepare themselves and how they enjoy playing this game. They've made it really easy for me to show up every day."
On April 18, Ike Davis made his major league debut for the New York Mets, becoming the 93rd former Arizona State player to make it to the big leagues. A year after pitching for ASU in the College World Series, Mike Leake is in the Cincinnati Reds' rotation.
They join a list of major league ex-Sun Devils that includes Reggie Jackson, Barry Bonds, Rick Monday, Bob Horner, Sal Bando, Andre Ethier and Dustin Pedroia.
"There's a solid foundation to this program, and that's why this program will always be successful," Esmay said, "because there is a base, and that base continues to be strong."
Arizona State has won the College World Series five times, but the last was in 1981. Murphy's team almost did it last year, losing to Texas in the play-in game for the final series.
This more mature, deeper team might do it, but historically being the No. 1 seed doesn't mean much. The top-seeded team hasn't won the title since Miami did it in 2001.
In many ways, this remains Murphy's team. He recruited nearly all of the players, he groomed them for success. Fifteen are back from last year's squad.
Arizona State swept the top Pac-10 honors with player of the year (Zach McPhee), pitcher of the year (Seth Blair) and coach of the year (Esmay).
Esmay and assistant coach Mike Benjamin, also a former major leaguer, made up the middle infield of the Arizona State team that made to the College World Series in 1985. Esmay, 45, was head coach at Utah from 1997-2004.
While a national search for Murphy's replacement was launched, Esmay took the job an interim basis.
With the team 47-8 and the Pac-10 champion for the fourth straight year, Love could hardly avoid the fact that the right man for the job had been there all along. Two weeks ago she removed the "interim" from his title.
Murphy was terminated without cause last December following a two-year NCAA probe that found his program had committed ethical violations, largely stemming from hundreds of phone calls made in recruiting a player. The university has admitted to two violations, and sanctions could come later this summer.
Now a special assistant to the San Diego Padres, Murphy vehemently denies wrongdoing and points the blame at Love's athletic department.
With that contentious backdrop, Esmay smoothly transferred the story back to the diamond.
"I think he deserves a lot of credit for it," said senior third baseman Raoul Torrez, who will play in his third College World Series. "He just preaches staying within the team, staying within the team, and what happens in the locker room stays in the locker room. I think there's just a lot of trust in all the players and that's what allows guys to pull together. … Everyone knows that we're going to pull together. The teammate's always got your back."
Even though the team lost Leake and it's No. 2 starter from a year ago, Australian lefty Josh Spence, who is out for the season with an elbow injury, the Sun Devils bring a deep pitching staff to Omaha.
Blair, 12-0 with a 3.35 ERA, is expected to start Sunday's opener. Last Sunday, closer Jordan Swaggerty, 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA, blew a save by giving up a two-out, two-strike homer in the ninth. He pitched the next three scoreless innings in a 7-5 win, the second of two 12-inning super regional victories over Arkansas.
The second baseman McPhee brings a .394 average and a team-high 64 RBIs. Torrez' brother Riccio is the first baseman and the team's leading hitter with a .399 average. Then there is outfielder Kole Calhoun, who hit .563 in four games in Omaha last season, with 11 RBIs and three home runs – including a grand slam. He leads the team in homers this year with 17.
"We've got to be a tight-knit group because we've had a lot of things we went through that could have broke us apart," Calhoun said. "But the locker room stayed intact and everyone stayed together. We all have one common goal, and we're still going out to accomplish that."


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On the Locations of
Cutfinger Cove, Portrait Cove & Bahía Windhond
In the Appendix volume of Narrative of the Surveying Voyages, …, FitzRoy's Table of Positions gives the coordinates of many places named after significant events that occurred during the voyages of HMS Beagle (Avalanche Cove, for example). However, there are two notable exceptions: The coordinates for Cutfinger Cove and Portrait Cove are not given, and this raises the question: Where are they?
Although we don't know for certain (yet), both FitzRoy's and Darwin's volumes offer a few hints that may help to identify these coves, as described below. This is followed by a discussion of the original location of Windhonds Bay.
Cutfinger Cove
After passing some thirty miles from the Beagle anchorage at Goree Road, FitzRoy described their arrival at "Cutfinger Cove" which he had named "… because one of our party, Robinson by name, almost deprived himself of two fingers by an axe slipping with which he was cutting wood."
January 19th, 1833. We … reached Cutfinger Cove. At this place, or rather from a hill above it, the view was striking. … to the westward we saw an immense canal, … almost straight and of nearly an uniform width for one hundred and twenty miles [The Beagle Channel].
And the next day, …
20th. We passed the clay cliffs [which] narrow the channel to less than a mile, …
For January 19th, Darwin writes that …
In the afternoon we entered the eastern mouth of the channel, and shortly afterwards found a snug little cove concealed by some surrounding islets.
The Google Earth view below shows the northeastern segment of Navarin Island (now, Isla Navarino), with a location (star) that agrees with FitzRoy's description of Cutfinger Cove, and Darwin's "…snug little cove concealed by some surrounding islets." FitzRoy's reference to cliffs that "…narrow the channel to less than a mile" agrees with the passage between Gable Island and the northern coast of Navarin Island.
Hover the mouse pointer over the magnifying-glass icon for a detail view of both Cutfinger Cove and Portrait Cove—the latter described below.
Portrait Cove
Neither FitzRoy nor Darwin mention the cove by name in their books. In fact, the only text reference is in the caption to the frontispiece illustration engraved by Thomas Landseer after three illustrations, two by Conrad Martens; the third from an unknown source, as seen here:
Left: Conrad Martens: "[Fuegian] carrying a bag of coals [?] for lighting a fire" (K. 128),
Center: Conrad Martens: "A Family Group. Entrance to the Beagle Channel" (K. 129),
Right: Thomas Landseer: Frontispiece engraving, derived from Martens' drawings, with dog added from unknown source (possibly, Landseer himself).
Note: Titles for Martens drawings are from Richard Darwin Keynes' The Beagle Record. Number in parentheses is from the author's "Conrad Marten's 'Beagle' Pictures." (p. 394). The frontispiece caption is:
Fuegian
(Yapoo Tekeenica)
at Portrait Cove
As to the location of Portrait Cove, again the best we have are some clues by FitzRoy. In his Chapter 15, he writes:
On the 27th, we crossed Nassau Bay to Goree Road, and the following day entered the Beagle Channel.
The 1st of March passed in replenishing our wood and water at a cove, where we had an opportunity of making acquaintance with some Yapoo Tekeenica natives, who seemed not to have met white men before.
In other words, the Beagle's first anchorage after Goree Road was slightly west of the eastern entrance to the Beagle Channel, at a place identified simply as "a cove." In context, this suggests it is not the earlier Cutfinger Cove, else FitzRoy would have called it by that name on this visit. And since Martens was not aboard on their visit a year earlier, this would be his first meeting with these natives. These clues suggest that Cutfinger and Portrait Coves are not the same place, but that the latter is some other cove near Cutfinger Cove.
One possible reason that FitzRoy makes no mention of Portrait Cove by name is that this name was not his, but rather that of Landseer, who added it when he created the engraving. The Google Earth detail view above shows a likely location for Portrait Cove.
To introduce (and then, argue against) a conflicting view, the "Part of Tierra del Fuego" chart in FitzRoy's volume shows a "Portrait Cove" on the eastern coast of Navarin Island, well before the entrance to the Beagle Channel. But there are several reasons to assume this chart is in error:
FitzRoy's own written description contradicts this placement,
The "Portrait Cove" notation makes its first appearance on this chart, drawn by cartographers J. & C. Walker for FitzRoy's 1839 book,
FitzRoy's original chart,* prepared several years earlier does not show any "Portrait Cove" notations,
The original chart shows numerous soundings in the general area of the above Google Earth image, and none at all in the Portrait Cove area on the 1839 J. & C. Walker chart.
* "Part of Tierra del Fuego from HMS Beagle 1834. No. 27" showing Whaleboat Sound, Darwin Sound, Gordon and Navarin Islands (L295, Fs: Office Mark & Shelf at the United Kingdom Hydrographic Office, Taunton, UK).
These points are offered as further evidence that the Beagle spent some time near the eastern entrance to the Beagle Channel, and little or none along the east coast of Navarin Island. Thus, Martens had sufficient time at the former location, and none at all at the latter, to draw his illustrations.
And as a final clue, note that the Conrad Martens illustration (center, above) places the Fuegian group's location at "Entrance to the Beagle Channel." As just noted, Portrait Cove on the Walker's chart is not at the channel entrance.
Bahía Windhond
Johannes van Walbeek's "Suydfyde van tierra del Fuego… " was the first chart to show Windhonds Bay on the southern coast of Tierra del Fuego's Isla Navarino. Based on the Dutch Nassau Fleet expedition of 1623, and highly inaccurate, the chart does show the bay at about 55° 30' south latitude, and 7.5 Dutch (approximately 22.5 English) miles to the northwest of "Lheremitens Eylandt." (now, Isla Hermite, after Jacob l'Hermite, the expedition commander.) This is reasonably close to the actual latitude and distance to the modern Wollastan and Hermite Island groups. Also, there are two small unnamed islands near the bay entrance; presumably the modern Islas Bertrand and Scott.
The "Goe Ree" [Good Harbor, and the name of the Dutch port of Goree, from which they sailed] notation may refer either to the large bay to the right of the words, or to the general area along the southern shore of Isla Navarino. In any case, the former is, according to the chart, about 7 Dutch (21 English) miles east of Walbeek's Windhonds Bay. This is quite close to the actual distance between his Windhonds Bay (now, Seno Grandi) and the larger bay now known as Bahía Windhond, all of which are shown in the Walbeek detail view at right.
A few clues suggest that FitzRoy had seen Walbeek's chart:
He places Walbeek's "Goe ree" on the roadstead along the east coast of the island, as "Goeree Road" (which later becomes "Goree Road"),
His own Windhond Bay coordinates agree with Walbeek's positioning, as does his description that it is "… a deep place full of islets." (p. 225, vol 2).
The location of Windhond Bay on the "Part of the Southern Coast of Tierra del Fuego" from the first voyage is shown at the top of the following illustration, which is marked with the year it was received by the Hydrographic Office. A scale at the top of the chart indicates that the vertical line passing through the bay is 3° 10' east of Port Famine, which is correct. A similar chart from the second voyage (with Darwin) is also shown, again marked with the year it was received by the Hydrographic Office.
United Kingdom Hydrographic Office Identification for Charts Above
Office Mark
H500 Fq 26 May 1831 Chart of part of the Southern Coast of Tierra del Fuego Surveyed in H. M. Sloop Beagle 1829-30
L295 Fs 6 Aug 1835 No. 27 Part of Tierra del Fuego from HMS Beagle 1834
In comparing the charts, note a few significant changes:
The Windhond Bay detail from the 1831 chart is gone,
The Windhond Bay label has been moved to the bay previously identified as Warren Bay,
The revised location contradicts FitzRoy's own coordinates in his Table of Positions.
In volume 1 of the Narrative, FitzRoy's May 5, 1830 entry offers evidence that the 1831 chart is correct, and the 1835 chart is not. In sailing westward, he passed through a kelp bed, continued past a low point of land and later saw guanacos feeding near Windhond Bay. The 1831 chart shows kelp notations on either side of Warren Bay, and therefore he was to the west of this bay when he approached the original Windhond Bay.
When the chart was redrawn (not shown here) for inclusion in FitzRoy's volume 2, the Windhond Bay label was returned to its location on the 1831 chart, and the larger bay to the east is now labeled Kelp Bay.
So far, no explanation for these changing details has been found, and in the intervening years since the voyages of the Beagle, Walbeek's location and FitzRoy's coordinates and description have been overlooked. The old Windhonds Bay is now Seno Grandi, and Bahía Windhond is now permanently associated with the large bay several miles to the east.


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c 1 pn
Posted in 3 Categories & 2 Tags
Curtis' 1817 Letter to the London Asylum
In a previous post, I briefly outlined the history of the London Asylum for the Deaf and Dumb. In this post, I turn my attention to provide an overview of Curtis' difficulties in implementing his medical authority within the Asylum. Part of this post is derived from the paper I presented at a joint panel for the Canadian Historical Association and the Canadian Society for the History and Philosophy of Science meeting, in May 2009. I am very grateful to my fellow panelists Erich Weidenhammer and Victor Boantza, our discussant Trevor Levere, and the audience for their comments and suggestions for my original paper.
According to Curtis, despite the good intentions of the Asylum, the prevailing prejudice and hostility against medical intervention on the part of the Committee of Governors meant many deaf children who weren't otherwise "deaf" were forced into isolation and "doomed to perpetual silence and hopeless despair. In 1817, Curtis outlined his concerns in letter to the Committee, outlining three basic recommendations to merge medical treatment with the Asylum's educational policies.
Firstly, Curtis argued that deafness required exclusive medical attention by an aural specialist, and not by "any practitioner in general practice, however distinguished his abilities or extensive his science."[*] He suggested "the advantage that would result to the Institution, were an aurist appointed to attend, and minutely examine the particular defect in each child admitted to your establishment; by this means an opportunity would be given of trying such methods as appear best calculated to give relief." [†]
Secondly, Curtis claimed that the system at the London Asylum was "totally inadequate to afford relief to the numerous applicants,"[‡] as children were chosen and admitted not from among the worst cases, but from a plurality of votes. He claimed the difficulty in selecting suitable candidates could be avoided with proper medical inspection, since a large number of children had minor ear ailments that could easily be treated.[§] By having the aurist minutely examine each child, Curtis asserted that such an examination would "demonstrate the necessity of inspection…in order to ascertain the nature of, and to relieve, such imperfections,"[**] and thus, limit the number of children entering the Asylum. Therefore, instead of being admitted into the Asylum and treated as incurably deaf, Curtis argued an earlier inspection and diagnosis of deafness—even as early as infancy—would lead to very different results, and render "useful members of society, who, under the present system, are objects of commiseration as long as they live."[††] Furthermore, Curtis argued the Asylum's rules for only accepting eligible children "before nine years of age, nor after fourteen"[‡‡] (when the disease is supposedly "confirmed") could be better served if "all children suspected of deafness…be submitted to an early inspection by competent persons."[§§]
Finally, inspired by the work at the Paris Institution to combine surgical and medical treatments with symbolic education, Curtis advised the Committee to set aside a part of the Asylum for medical and surgical treatments of deafness and not merely confined to symbolic education. He concluded that "by this plan I conceive many of the objects of your laudable charity might probably be found curable, restored to society, and rendered useful; by which the bounds of your humane establishment would be extended, and greater scope given to your highly benevolent views."[***]
According to Curtis, prevailing social prejudices against the curability of deafness were grossly misunderstood, if not mistaken. While he admitted the lack of proper medical and surgical treatments available for deafness and the lack of professional progress made in aural surgery, Curtis argued that a greater understanding of deafness was required. During his early years as a practitioner, youthful ambition led him to claim that all cases of deafness was curable; however, experience led him to distinguish between congenital deafness (i.e. deafness from birth), variations of deafness caused by disease (e.g. herpes or bacterial infection), blockage (e.g. build up of wax), and structural deformities. He wrote that "No pains seem to have been taken to ascertain the real state of the organ itself; and thus, the ear being neglected, dumbness ensured to deafness,–the miserable sufferer is looked upon as one condemned, and is shut out from the sympathises of his fellow creatures."[†††] By recognizing the distinctions between the causes of deafness, Curtis claimed that proper medical and surgical remedies could be applied; while he mistakenly believed that most variations of ear diseases could be cured by using a syringe for irrigation of the ear, many of his treatments did, at the very least, provide relief if he was heralded as a successful practitioner among his society.
In the context of the Asylum's educational policies, unsurprisingly, Curtis' letter did not have the effect it intended. While Curtis failed to transform the Asylum's policies towards medical intervention, he did, at the very least, contribute to some changes. The Governing Committee at the London Asylum fully rejected Curtis' third recommendation, declaring that the institution was established only for the purposes of instruction, and they "cannot permit the pupils received by them for education to be subjected to any medical treatment whatsoever in regards to their deafness while in the Asylum."[‡‡‡] This response was based on the continuing perception of both the Asylum and the larger society that deafness was incurable and the insufficiency of the crude treatments proposed by both the Paris Institution and British aurists that were no nearer to curing deafness despite their claims to have done so. Yet the Committee accepted Curtis' second recommendation for the minute examination of each child, and hesitantly applied the first. In the 1840s, Curtis acknowledged that his first recommendation was "still in vigorous operation," and recognized that "the time will soon arrive when it will be found impossible any longer to resist the introduction a plan founded on more correct principles, and better calculated to benefit the human race."[§§§] While it seems strange that the Committee would accept Curtis' recommendations for medical examination but not for a place in the Asylum for medical practitioners, it is important to understand the context in which the Committee made their decisions: establishing part of their Asylum for medical and surgical treatment would undermine their efforts on improving the deaf through sign language. Public expectations and patronage would only support improvement through educational efforts.
[*] JH Curtis, A Treatise on the Physiology and Diseases of the Ear, 6th Ed (London: Sherwood, Neely & Jones, 1836), p.xxiii.
[†] Curtis, Treatise, p.xxiv.
[‡] Curtis, Treatise (6th Edition), p.166.
[§] In Advice to the Deaf: The Present State of Aural Surgery (1843), Curtis scornfully writes: "at a late half-yearly meeting, there were seventy-eight candidates, of whom thirty-five were elected. Were these thirty-five candidates those whose cases were most required, and were the best fitted to receive, relief from the mode pursued at the Asylum? or where they not merely those whose friends were the most powerful? (43)
[**] JH Curtis, An Essay on the Deaf and Dumb (London: Longman, Rees, Orme, Brown and Green, 1829), p.xxvi.
[††] Curtis, Observations on the Preservation of Hearing, p.46.
[‡‡] Asylum..for the Deaf, Plan of the Asylum, p.10.
[§§] JH Curtis, Observations on the Preservation of Hearing, and on the Choice, Use, and Abuse of Acoustic Instruments, 11th Ed. (London: Henry Renshaw, 1839), p.46.
[***] Curtis, Treatise, p.xxiv.
[†††] Curtis, Treatise (6th ed), p.161.
[‡‡‡] Quoted in Patrick Beaver, A Tower of Strength: Two Hundred Years of the Royal School for Deaf Children (Sussex: Books Guild, 1992), 42. Also, Hodgson, The Deaf and Their Problems, p.155.
[§§§] Curtis, Advice to the Deaf, p.43.
Educational Institutions for the Deaf 13
John Harrison Curtis 26
PhD Disseration 56
deafness 80
JH Curtis 14
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On January 22, a working meeting between REC's Director General Andrey Slepnev and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Cuba in the Russian Federation Gerardo Peñalver Portal took place in the Russian Export Center.
Participants from the Russian side also included Director General of EXIAR, Senior Vice President of REC Nikita Gusakov, Senior Vice President of REC Igor Zhuk.
The agenda of the meeting was to define a list of highest priority projects to be implemented in 2019.
The parties noted the growth of Russian export to Cuba, which, as of the end of 11 months of 2018, increased by 30%. Machines, equipment and vehicles constitute the basis of Russian export.
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Time to rebalance
America's economy is set to shift away from consumption and debt and towards exports and saving. It will be its biggest transformation in decades, says Greg Ip (interviewed here)
Special reportApr 3rd 2010 edition
STEVE HILTON remembers months of despair after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Customers rushed to the sales offices of Meritage Homes, the property firm Mr Hilton runs, not to buy houses but to cancel contracts they had already signed. "I thought for a moment the world was coming to an end," he recalls.
In the following months Mr Hilton stepped up efforts to save his company. He gave up options to buy thousands of lots that the firm had snapped up across Arizona, Florida, Nevada and California during the boom, taking massive losses. He eventually laid off three-quarters of its 2,300 employees. He also had its houses completely redesigned to cut construction cost almost in half: simpler roofs, standardised window sizes, fewer options. Gone were the 12-foot ceilings, sweeping staircases and granite countertops everyone wanted when money was free. Meritage is now catering to the only customers able to get credit: first-time buyers with federally guaranteed loans. It is clawing its way back to health as a leaner, humbler company.
The same could be said for America. Virtually every industry has shed jobs in the past two years, but those that cater mostly to consumers have suffered most. Employment in residential construction and carmaking is down by almost a third, in retailing and banking by 8%. As the economy recovers, some of those jobs will come back, but many of them will not, because this was no ordinary recession. The bubbly asset prices, ever easier credit and cheap oil that fuelled America's age of consumerism are not about to return.
Instead, America's economy will undergo one of its biggest transformations in decades. This macroeconomic shift from debt and consumption to saving and exports will bring microeconomic changes too: different lifestyles, and different jobs in different places. This special report will describe that transformation, and explain why it will be tricky.
The crisis and then the recession put an abrupt end to the old economic model. Despite a small rebound recently, house prices have fallen by 29% and share prices by a similar amount since their peak. Households' wealth has shrunk by $12 trillion, or 18%, since 2007. As a share of disposable income it is back to its level in 1995. And if consumers feel less rich, they are less inclined to spend. Banks are also less willing to lend: they have tightened loan standards, with a push from regulators who now wish they had taken a dimmer view of exotic mortgages and lax lending during the boom.
Consumer debt rose from an average of less than 80% of disposable income 20 years ago to 129% in 2007. If other crises of the past half-century are any guide, America's consumers will spend the next six or seven years reducing their debt to more manageable levels, reckons the McKinsey Global Institute. This is already changing the composition of economic activity. Consumer spending and housing rose from 70% of GDP in 1991 to 76% in 2005 (see chart 1). By last year it had fallen back to 73%, still high by international standards.
The effect on the economy of deflated assets, tighter credit and costlier energy are already apparent. Fewer people are buying homes, and the ones they buy tend to be smaller and less opulent. In 2008 the median size of a new home shrank for the first time in 13 years. The number of credit cards in circulation has declined by almost a fifth. American Express is pulling back from credit cards and is now telling customers how to use their charge cards (which are paid off in full every month) to control their spending.
Normally, deep recessions are followed by strong recoveries as pent-up demand reasserts itself. In the recent recession GDP shrank by 3.8%, the worst drop since the second world war. In the recovery the economy might therefore be expected to grow by 6-8% and unemployment to fall steadily, as happened after two earlier recessions of comparable depth, in 1973-75 and 1981-82.
No bounce-back
But this particular recession was triggered by a financial crisis that damaged the financial system's ability to channel savings to productive investment and left consumers and businesses struggling with surplus buildings, equipment and debt accumulated in the boom. Recovery after that kind of crisis is often slow and weak, and indeed some nine months into the upturn GDP has probably grown at an annual rate of less than 4%. Unemployment is well up throughout the country (see map), though it declined slightly in February.
So if America is to avoid the stagnation that afflicted Japan after its bubbles burst, where is the demand going to come from? In the short term the federal government has stepped up its borrowing—to 10% of GDP this year—to counteract the drop in private consumption and investment. Over the next few years this stimulus will be withdrawn. Barack Obama wants the deficit to come down to around 3% of GDP by the middle of this decade, though it is not clear how that will be achieved. Indeed, if the rest of the economy remains moribund, the government may be reluctant to withdraw the stimulus for fear of pushing the economy back into recession.
Tighter credit and lower consumer borrowing are not the only drivers of economic restructuring. A less noticed but significant push comes from higher energy prices. A strengthening dollar and ample supply kept oil cheap for most of the 1990s, feeding America's addiction to imports. That began to change a few years before the crisis as the dollar fell and emerging markets' growing appetite put pressure on global production capacity.
A fourfold increase in oil prices since the 1990s has rearranged both consumer and producer incentives. Sport-utility vehicles are losing popularity, policies to boost conservation and renewable energy have become bolder, and producers have found a lot more oil below America's soil and coastal seabed. Imports of the stuff have dropped by 10% since 2006 and are likely to come down further. When natural-gas prices followed the rise in oil earlier this decade, exploration companies used new methods to get at gas trapped in shale formations from Texas to Pennsylvania. Abundant domestic shale gas should radically reduce America's gas imports.
America's economic geography will change too. Cheap petrol and ample credit encouraged millions of Americans to flock to southern states and to distant suburbs ("exurbs") in search of big houses with lots of land. Now the housing bust has tied them to homes they cannot sell. Population growth in the suburbs has slowed. For the present the rise of knowledge-intensive global industries favours centres rich in infrastructure and specialised skills. Some are traditional urban cores such as New York and some are suburban edge cities that offer jobs along with affordable houses and short commutes.
A burst of productivity could lift incomes and profits. That would enable consumers to repay some of their debt yet continue to spend. The change in the mix of growth should help: productivity in construction remains low, whereas in exports the most productive companies often do best. But the hobbled financial system will make it hard for cash-hungry start-ups to get financing, so innovation will suffer.
The outlook for business investment depends on whether it is for equipment or buildings. Spending on equipment is expected to be fairly strong, having largely avoided excess in the boom period, and indeed in the fourth quarter of 2009 it raced ahead at an annual rate of 19%. In February John Chambers, the boss of Cisco Systems, a maker of networking gear, called it "one of the most robust, positive turnarounds I've seen in my career". Demand for new buildings is far lower: empty shops and offices attest to ample unused capacity. And business investment typically accounts for only 10-12% of GDP, so it will never be a full substitute for consumer spending.
The road to salvation
As consumers rebuild their savings, American firms must increasingly look abroad for sales. They have a lot of ground to make up. Competition from low-wage countries, mostly China, has increasingly taken over the markets of domestic industries such as furniture, clothing or consumer electronics. Yet shifts in the pattern of global growth and the dollar are laying the groundwork for a boom in exports. "There's a world view that the United States is the consumer of the world and emerging markets are the producer," says Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase. "That has changed." He reckons that America will account for just 27% of global consumption this year against emerging markets' 34%, roughly the reverse of their shares eight years ago.
The cheaper dollar will resuscitate some industries in commoditised markets, but the main beneficiaries of the export boom will be companies that are already formidable exporters. These companies reflect America's strengths in high-end services and highly skilled manufacturing such as medical devices, pharmaceuticals, software and engineering, as well as creative services like film, architecture and advertising. Thanks to cheap digital technology, South Korea and India now knock out the sort of low-budget films that compete with standard American fare. But only Hollywood combines the creativity, expertise and market savvy to make something like "Avatar" which has earned $2.6 billion so far, some 70% of which came from abroad. That adds up to several jumbo jets.
Exports are a classic route to recovery after a crisis. Sweden and Finland in the early 1990s and Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea in the late 1990s bounced back from recession by moving from trade deficit to surplus or expanding their surplus. But given its size and the sickly state of most other rich countries' economies, America will find it much harder. It has been exporting more to emerging markets than to developed ones for several years, but if other countries, particularly China, do not sufficiently boost domestic demand, "the unwinding of the global imbalances could reverse quite quickly in 2010," says an IMF staff paper.
America's current-account deficit, the broadest measure of its trade and payments with the rest of the world, shrank from 6% of GDP in 2006 to 3% last year (see chart 2). Could it come down to zero? It nearly did in 1991 after five years of booming exports. This time the deficit started out a lot larger and the rest of the world is weaker. Still, even stabilisation around 3% would be a blessed relief because it would slow the growth in America's indebtedness to foreigners.
America's imbalances were years in the making and will not be undone overnight. But the elements of a rebalanced economy are already visible a 40-minute drive to the south of Mr Hilton's offices in Scottsdale, Arizona. Around the same time that Mr Hilton was watching sales of his homes dry up, Brian Krzanich, head of global manufacturing at Intel, was finalising plans to spend $3 billion retooling his company's massive semiconductor factories in nearby Chandler. Mr Krzanich knew perfectly well there was a recession going on. Intel's sales were down and 3% of the staff at the factories had been laid off. But he also knew that once global demand rebounded, Intel would have to be ready to produce a new generation of cheaper, smaller and more efficient chips. "Unless you think your business is going to shrink for an extended period, like seven years, it always pays to make that investment," he says. In the last quarter of 2009 Intel, helped by resurgent demand for technology, enjoyed record profit margins, and Mr Krzanich was approving overtime.
Mr Hilton, for his part, runs his company on the assumption that the days of easy money and exuberant consumers are gone for ever. In his office he has a yellowed copy of the Wall Street Journal from September 18th 2008, the week when Lehman failed and American International Group was bailed out. "Worst crisis since the 30s with no end in sight", reads one headline. "I wish I'd had that article in 2005," says Mr Hilton. He keeps it around as an antidote any time he is "feeling all happy and slappy".
Time to rebalance America's economy
The end of the binge
Look after the cents
Export or die
Energetic progress
Somewhere to live
Trying harder
This article appeared in the Special report section of the print edition under the headline "Time to rebalance"


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Home Entertainment Saudi Airlines lost Mahira Khan's bag, the actress tweeted
Saudi Airlines lost Mahira Khan's bag, the actress tweeted
Rose Johnson
: Pakistani actress Mahira Khan has suffered a big problem. Actually the actress had gone to Arabia recently. Where the airlines have lost one of their suitcases. So the actress looks very upset and she has expressed her dissatisfaction with the airlines through a tweet. The actress recounted in her tweet that she has not received any updates on her bag since three.
Indeed, Mahira Khan, angry at not recovering her lost bag even after three days, took her anger out on the airlines by posting on Twitter. She wrote in her tweet: "It's been 3 days since I arrived and Saudi Airlines lost one of my bags. Despite speaking to staff multiple times a day, still no update on my bag." her that she will respond shortly after this tweet. In this tweet, the actress has also tagged Saudi Airlines. She reports that Mahira Khan is in Jeddah due to the Red Sea Film Festival.
It's been 3 days since I arrived and Saudi Airlines lost one of my bags. Despite monitoring several times a day, there is still no update on the whereabouts of my bag. Hoping this tweet makes you respond faster. @SaudiAirlines @fia
—Mahira Khan (@TheMahiraKhan) December 9, 2022
Whereas earlier a photo of Mahira Khan was going viral on social media. In which she is seen sitting at the same table with Bollywood star Hrithik Roshan. In this picture, both of them were smiling while looking at each other. Tell them that you both met at the Red Sea Film Festival.
Let's say Mahira Sharma made her Bollywood debut through the movie 'Pathan'. Shahrukh Khan was seen with him in this movie. The couple of both liked a lot in the movie. However, after this, the actress has yet to appear in any Hindi film.
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