text:
COVID-19 AND THE USE OF OFFENSIVE CYBER OPERATIONS
Cyborg Security
By Josh Campbell from Cyborg Security
A matter of fact is that the world has, in the last several months, undergone a period of upheaval as a consequence of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Many aspects of our lives that were taken for granted changed significantly, seemingly, overnight. Countries that shared open borders closed them; multinational corporations abandoned their office environments in favour of working-from-home; and, individuals faced months within the confines of the four walls of their homes. Amongst this chaos and uncertainty, criminals and spooks of the digital age intensified their existing efforts to levels that have been unprecedented in modern history.
It is important to note, though, that these were intensifications of existing operations. Despite the news media's headlines asserting that these efforts by criminals and spies were phenomena borne of the virus, these efforts were pre-existing, and indeed to many working in the cyber security and intelligence communities, this activity was all too familiar. However, what had changed was the scale and intensity with which this activity was carried out.
Whereas once advanced actors would have to carefully research their targets, crafting messages with a convincing pretense, in the hopes of luring unsuspecting individuals with phishing emails; now, the number of people who were clamoring for information and hope, while simultaneously experiencing stress, boredom, and confusion had grown logarithmically, making almost every person a perfect target, ripe for exploitation. These malevolent actors realized this, and in turn, took M.F. Weiner's infamous advice, about not wasting a crisis,[1] to heart.
The activity that resulted from this crisis capitalization was as diverse as the motivations of the actors behind it; however, it also served to highlight the increasingly central role that offensive cyber operations (OCO) — the collective term Western governments use to describe such activity[2] — have in governmental activities. Perhaps more interestingly though, is that this intensification of cyber activity peeled back the shroud of secrecy that often veils the activities of foreign and domestic intelligence agencies, even if only for a brief moment, to reveal the extent that OCO plays for the purposes of disinformation, intelligence collection, and intellectual property theft.
DISINFORMATION AND OFFENSIVE CYBER OPERATIONS
Throughout the pandemic, it was clear that information regarding the virus became a highly desirable, and yet altogether scarce, commodity. It seemed that every day, some new "fact" about the virus, preventative measures, a vaccine, or a therapeutic treatment was revealed, only to have that "fact" vanish the following day as competing information disproving the claim was released.[3] This vacuum, and simultaneous overload, of competing "facts" left many perplexed, and a perplexed population is one that will seek out their own answers.
Such a state of confusion and uncertainty is one where disinformation can be effectively employed. It is important to understand that while the terms "misinformation" and "disinformation" are frequently used interchangeably, they relate to very different concepts.
Misinformation is false information, which is often generated by incomplete or faulty data or assumptions and is often transmitted with the intent to aid others. Therefore, a news organization that promulgates information about COVID-19 that later turns out to be false, would be said to be spreading misinformation.
Conversely, disinformation is information which may contain both accurate and inaccurate data (which can make it much harder to separate fact from fiction), which is generated intentionally, and is transmitted in an effort to deflect criticism, divide populations, or disrupt government and business operations. While misinformation can be harmful during intense times of confusion, disinformation can often be far worse, as it has the capability of permeating a collective consciousness and eroding trust.
Examples of disinformation were rampant through the height of the pandemic and were often the result of countries attempting to lessen the "blow" that COVID-19 would have to their economies and international relations. Various agencies have, for instance, accused China of conducting disinformation with regards to the role their country played in the early stages of the virus, including a claim by a senior government official which asserted that the virus was "imported" to China by U.S. military personnel.[4] Other organizations have alleged that various governments have engaged in fostering disinformation about COVID-19 as a biological weapon, as means of fomenting anti-vaccination sentiment, and even claims that COVID-19 was transmitted by 5G cellular technology.[5]
While the claims themselves matter very little, the outcomes of disinformation on a population can be highly consequential: the topic of compulsory vaccinations for COVID-19 has entered the general zeitgeist,[6] significant government resources were committed to determining the origin of COVID-19,[7] and there were several reports of individuals across Europe burning down 5G compatible cellular towers.[8] However, sowing seeds of doubt and discord are not the only results of offensive cyber operations during the height of the pandemic.
INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION AND OFFENSIVE CYBER OPERATIONS
As a means of conducting intelligence analysis, one of the fundamental steps is collecting data and information from your allies, adversaries, and third parties. While this is sometimes portrayed in Hollywood as being carried out by secret agents covertly collecting information from hyperbolically evil villains, often in an effort to save the world from an overly complicated plot, the truth is often far more benign. The reality is that various intelligence agencies often commit significant resources to gathering data from an array of open sources[9] (such as the news media from various countries) while also gathering from more sensitive sources such as embassies, diplomats, and yes, even the occasional "secret agent."
An example of this concerted effort by countries to collect accurate data and information can be seen by a report released early in 2020, which identified activities by the Vietnamese government conducting OCO against the Chinese government in an effort to collect data about the virus from less public sources.[10] This effort highlighted that COVID-19 had become a priority intelligence requirement (PIR), and that Vietnam sought to gain more insight into the Chinese deliberations about the virus, in order to corroborate existing data, or to supplement data that may have been perceived as less reliable from conventional sources. Other governments and agencies have likewise identified that they have been targeted by various cyber espionage actors in an effort to collect data on government responses to COVID-19.[11] [12]
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY THEFT AND OFFENSIVE CYBER OPERATIONS
Intellectual property theft remains one of the key motivators for cyber espionage. [13] [14] [15] The benefits, both financially and reputationally, that can be realized by countries which successfully acquire highly confidential intellectual property secrets are numerous. Such theft can allow domestic firms to "catch up" with foreign countries without the associated research and development costs, for instance. Additionally, such confidential material can also prove highly lucrative during bilateral negotiations and may even allow countries to gain a reputational advantage over their economic competitors.
Therefore, it is no surprise that the interest by various foreign governments[16] [17] [18] in organizations engaged in COVID-19 research, especially labs working on vaccines, would prove a fruitful target for cyber espionage actors. Indeed, reports of such infiltrations have been widespread, with the United Kingdom,[19] Canada,[20] and the United States[21] all reporting extensive efforts to compromise these organizations. The benefits a government could realize from acquiring research on the topic of the vaccine are extensive: the country would stand to gain international acclaim in being one of the first to develop a vaccine, and domestic firms and governments would stand to profit significantly from nations looking to vaccinate their populations. The result of this is that many countries are seeking to gain a competitive advantage, and the use of OCO to achieve those ends is often the most effective.
To say that the world has changed in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic is an understatement. Nations are still grappling with the systemic changes necessary to both protect their populations and restart their economies. However, such crises are often ripe for capitalization, and cyber espionage actors are no stranger to these strategic moments. Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in one of the most unprecedented intensifications of global offensive cyber operations in history, with the offensive cyber actors seeking to promulgate disinformation, perform intelligence collection, and acquire sensitive intellectual property all with an eye towards their strategic national interests.
[1] https://freakonomics.com/2009/08/13/quotes-uncovered-who-said-no-crisis-should-go-to-waste/
[2] https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pubs/jp3_12.pdf
[3] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-avoid-misinformation-about-covid-19-180974615/
[4] https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/14/japan-accuses-china-of-disinformation-over-coronavirus-outbreak
[5] https://euvsdisinfo.eu/eeas-special-report-update-short-assessment-of-narratives-and-disinformation-around-the-covid19-pandemic-updated-23-april-18-may/
[6] https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/08/how-coronavirus-covid-vaccine-mandate-would-actually-work-cvd/
[7] https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-intelligence-agencies-say-coronavirus-originated-in-china-wasnt-man-madeor-genetically-modified-11588260228
[8] https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/conspiracy-theorists-burn-5g-towers-claiming-link-virus-70258811
[9] https://fas.org/irp/dni/osc/index.html
[10] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cyber-vietnam/vietnam-linked-hackers-targeted-chinese-government-over-coronavirus-response-researchers-idUSKCN2241C8
[11] https://cyber.gc.ca/en/guidance/cyber-threat-bulletin-impact-covid-19-cyber-threat-activity
[12] https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/news/advisory-apt29-targets-covid-19-vaccine-development
[13] https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-113hhrg86391/html/CHRG-113hhrg86391.htm
[14] https://www.dni.gov/files/NCSC/documents/news/20180724-economic-espionage-pub.pdf
[15] https://www.carbonblack.com/definitions/what-is-cyber-espionage/
[16] https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/russian-cyber-spies-are-targeting-covid-19-vaccine-research/4012155.article
[17] https://www.nationalreview.com/news/chinese-and-iranian-hackers-targeting-us-vaccine-research/
[18] https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-iranian-hacking-may-be-hampering-search-for-coronavirus-vaccine-officials-say-11589362205
[19] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53493028
[20] https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/russian-hackers-have-tried-to-steal-covid-19-research-1.5026553
[21] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/21/us/politics/china-hacking-coronavirus-vaccine.html
More from Cyborg Security
What Should the Future of Travel Media Look like?
Kevin Vaughn in Curious
Why I started a Podcast (and why you should, too)
Jon Schaeffer in ILLUMINATION
What Vogue's Summer Covers Tell us about Fashion's Response to COVID-19
Eman Alami
The New York Times Says Crashed UFOs May Exist
Bryce Zabel in Trail of the Saucers
The Worst Takes From the British Press on the Royal Engagement
The Cut in The Cut
The Media Still Doesn't Know How To Deal With Trump
Face It, You Just Don't Care About the News Anymore
Hossein Derakhshan
How is Trump like the Tiger King?
Michael Tauberg


text:
City makes the switch to trigen
I am proud to announce that the City of Sydney has signed a Heads of Agreement with energy provider Cogent to create a new energy network for the city.
This new network will use trigeneration - which means it will deliver electricity as well as heating and cooling. Combining these elements drastically reduces the amount of carbon pollution created, and reducing pollution by 60%.
The trigeneration network will supply council and privately owned buildings in four low-carbon-zones across central Sydney:
CBD North (Martin Place/George Street)
CBD South (Town Hall Precinct)
Pyrmont/Broadway
Green Square
The City's interim trigeneration master plan includes providing 70 per cent of the local government area's electricity requirements by 2030 - that's a total of 360 megawatts (MW). However, new estimates suggest that we have the potential to create 410 MW of cleaner, more efficient energy, heating and cooling.
By generating energy at a local level, we are not only increasing our efficiency and reducing our pollution - we are reducing costs.
Electricity prices from the coal-fired grid are expected to rise an average 83% over the five years to 2013-14 as energy companies spend $17.4 billion to upgrade the electricity grid or network. Network charges - the cost of transporting electricity - are set to rise from 40 to 60 per cent of the average electricity bill.
Two new power stations are planned for NSW with a capacity of 4,000 MW, costing from $4.6 billion to $7 billion. If these proposed power stations were to use coal they would emit 23 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year or 15 per cent of NSW's total carbon pollution.
Investing in trigeneration is just one of the actions we are taking at the City to reduce our carbon pollution which is driving climate change.
To find out how trigeneration works, please visit www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/environment/Trigeneration.asp

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Give to Football
Game Day Info
Vogelbach Passes for Six TDs in Win Over Ferrum
Ferrum (0-1) 0 7 7 21 35
Guilford (1-0) 14 21 0 14 49
Pa: Josh Vogelbach - 338
Ru: Mike Cooper - 49
Rec: Chris Barnette - 134
Pa: Jermaine Pitts - 42
Ru: Jermaine Pitts - 170
Rec: Chris Silk - 22
Greensboro, N.C. (09/01/06) – Guilford College's Josh Vogelbach threw for a school-record six touchdowns and 338 yards in the Quakers' 49-35 win over visiting Ferrum College Saturday in both teams' season opener.
Guilford (1-0) scored touchdowns on five of its first six possessions to build a 35-7 halftime lead. Vogelbach completed 22 of 29 passes for 225 yards and four touchdowns in the first half, including two scoring strikes to Micah Rushing. The Quakers' Chris Barnette caught nine of his game-high 11 passes in the first half for 111 yards and a score.
Ferrum (0-1) scored three straight touchdowns in the second half and pulled to within 35-28 with 10:51 left in the game on a 22-yard touchdown pass from Jermaine Pitts to Chris Silk. A botched punt by Guilford set up the score as punter Travis Frazier's knee hit the ground while fielding a low snap at his own 22-yard line.
The Quakers, who managed only 31 yards and three first downs in the third quarter, answered with a nine-play, 55-yard scoring drive that Vogelbach capped with his second touchdown pass of the game to Joe Joyner. Frazier's point after gave Guilford a 42-28 edge with 7:14 remaining.
Ferrum turned the ball over on downs on its ensuing possession, which let Guilford strike for the final time on a 19-yard scoring pass from Vogelbach to Rushing with 1:46 left. Vogelbach completed all three pass attempts for 46 yards on the drive.
Backup quarterback James Terrell closed out Ferrum's scoring with a one-yard keeper with 20 seconds left. He ran five times for 50 yards and completed a 15-yard pass on the drive.
Vogelbach completed 31 of 49 passes for 338 yards and an interception. His six touchdowns broke the former mark he tied five times last year and shared with Danny Strelkauskas '98. The sophomore has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last seven games, dating back to last season. Barnette, a preseason All-American, hauled in 11 Vogelbach passes for 134 yards. Joyner and Rushing finished with seven catches apiece. Sophomore Danny Langston, a converted quarterback, made a game-high 12 tackles (8 solo) in his college debut at safety.
Pitts paced Ferrum with 170 rushing yards and two scores on 21 carries. He scored on a 74-yard run in the second quarter. Kerry Dudley added 53 rushing yards on five carries and made a 13-yard reception. J.J. Jordan made a team-high nine tackles and an interception for Ferrum.
Guilford has won five games in a row, its longest winning streak since the Quakers won six straight over the 1997 and 1998 campaigns. The Quakers visit Methodist next Saturday (9/9) at 1:00 p.m. Ferrum hosts Bridgewater (Va.) Sept. 16 at 1:30 p.m.
December 11, 2006 Guilford's Chris Barnette Earns All-America Football Honors
December 8, 2006 Guilford's Barnette and Frazier Land All-South Football Honors
November 22, 2006 Guilford's Barnette and Frazier Named to East Coast Bowl
November 21, 2006 Guilford College Places Six on All-ODAC Football
November 6, 2006 Guilford's Vogelbach Named ODAC Offensive Player of the Week
November 4, 2006 Guilford Downs Catholic, 41-18 in Football
October 28, 2006 Vogelbach and Guilford Upend Randolph-Macon in ODAC Football Action, 14-6
October 21, 2006 Washington and Lee Football Wins Sixth Straight with a 34-12 Win Over Guilford
October 16, 2006 Guilford Sweeps Weekly ODAC Football Awards
October 14, 2006 Guilford Hands Bridgewater First ODAC Grid Loss in Six Years, 33-28
October 2, 2006 Guilford's Barnette, Mace Win Weekly Honors
September 30, 2006 Football Defeats Greensboro, 36-30 in Double Overtime
September 28, 2006 Game Field and Dedicate Press Box at Gate City Soup Bowl Football Game
September 23, 2006 Tiger Rush Attack, Hovis' Ints, Lead to 46-43 Win Over Guilford
September 11, 2006 Guilford's Paylor Named ODAC Defensive Player of the Week
September 11, 2006 Quakers Football Goes 'Mobile' and On-Demand with Teamline Direct
September 9, 2006 Guilford Football Downs Methodist, 27-11
September 6, 2006 Guilford's Football Students Honored
September 4, 2006 Guilford's Vogelbach Named ODAC Player of the Week
September 2, 2006 Vogelbach Passes for Six TDs in Win Over Ferrum
August 31, 2006 2006 Football Outlook
August 23, 2006 Guilford Announces Changes to Football Coaching Staff
August 10, 2006 Guilford Pair Lands Preseason Football Honors
August 4, 2006 Mario Paylor Named Guilford Football Captain
August 3, 2006 Guilford Picked Fourth in ODAC Football Poll
August 2, 2006 Guilford Kicks Off 100th Football Season Spetember 2
July 19, 2006 Barnette Named Preseason All-America Team
June 5, 2006 Barnette Named to Lindy's Preseason All-America Team


Pet supplements: Have we gone too far?
(NC)-"Our dog is truly a member of the family. It hurt me to watch him struggle with his aging joints," explains Bev Lewis, a mother and pet owner in Halifax who gives her dog glucosamine sulfate. "I had a personal reality on how much it hurt. Before I started using glucosamine, I couldn't do up my buttons without excruciating pain." Although dogs and humans don't have the same physiology, there are certain nutrients that can support a dog's health and joint flexibility as well as our own.
Glucosamine is found in cartilage and the synovial fluid that lubricates and cushions joints. It is a normal constituent of a dog's glycosaminoglycans, natural compounds in the basic substance of connective tissue. Glucosamine sulfate and glucosamine hydrochloride are two forms available as dietary supplements. You can find details on various forms of glucosamine and other joint supplements at www.webbernaturals.com. A capsule of glucosamine can be opened and sprinkled on pet food. It is apparently absorbed and delivered to the joints to reduce pain, inflammation and stiffness, as it does in humans.
"I know it sounds a bit kooky, but I read up on it and now I'm glad I did. It worked for me and it's working for the dog. We can go running together again." adds Lewis.


H. Upmann by AJ Fernandez is unlike any other H. Upmann you may have smoked in the storied brand's stable of premium cigars. Blended by the remarkably talented A.J. Fernandez and flawlessly handmade at his factory in Esteli, Nicaragua, the H. Upmann by AJ Fernandez is a medium- to full-bodied, robust, and distinctly flavorful cigar with an even burn and perfect draw. A gorgeous Ecuadoran Sumatra wrapper covers Nicaraguan Criollo '98 and Dominican Piloto Cubano filler tobaccos bound in Nicaraguan Corojo '99 leaf delivering tasty notes of cocoa, sweet cedar, cream, coffee, roasted nuts, and a gentle spiciness.


text:
Q: Correctly implement the Scrollable interface I'm trying to implement the Swing Scrollable interface on a JPanel.
However, it shows a strange behavior which I do not understand.

As you can see in the GIF, the panel shrinks until its minimum size, and only at that point the scrollbar is shown, and that's ok.
However, the panel does not keep its minimum size but instead goes to its preferred one (it seems).
Is this behavior expected? I think the inner panel should maintain the shrinked minimum dimension and not expand again.
What do I have to change to get to that result?

The example code:
public class Main {
  public static void main(final String[] args) {
    final var frame = new JFrame("Example");

    final var gbc = new GridBagConstraints();
    gbc.fill = GridBagConstraints.BOTH;
    gbc.anchor = GridBagConstraints.LINE_START;
    gbc.weightx = 1.0;

    final var innerPanel = new JPanel(new GridBagLayout());
    innerPanel.add(new JLabel("<html>Just an example label. Here for the show but I must be a bit long.</html>"), gbc);

    gbc.gridy = 1;
    innerPanel.add(new InnerPanel(), gbc);
    innerPanel.setMinimumSize(new Dimension(200, 0));

    final var panel = new ScrollablePanel(new BorderLayout());
    panel.add(innerPanel, BorderLayout.CENTER);
    panel.setBorder(BorderFactory.createEmptyBorder(10, 10, 10, 10));

    frame.getContentPane().add(new JScrollPane(panel));
    frame.pack();
    frame.setVisible(true);
  }

  static class InnerPanel extends JPanel {
    InnerPanel() {
      super(new GridBagLayout());

      final var gb = new GridBagConstraints();
      gb.fill = GridBagConstraints.HORIZONTAL;
      gb.anchor = GridBagConstraints.LINE_END;
      gb.weightx = 1.0;
      gb.insets = new Insets(3, 5, 3, 5);
      gb.gridy = 0;
      gb.gridx = 0;
      add(new JLabel("Example"), gb);

      gb.gridx++;
      add(new JComboBox<String>(), gb);

      gb.gridy++;
      gb.gridx = 0;
      add(new JLabel("Example"), gb);

      gb.gridx++;
      add(new JFormattedTextField(), gb);

      gb.gridy++;
      gb.gridx = 0;
      gb.gridwidth = GridBagConstraints.REMAINDER;
      gb.fill = GridBagConstraints.NONE;
      add(new JButton("Example"), gb);
    }
  }

  static class ScrollablePanel extends JPanel implements Scrollable {
    private static final int INCREMENT = 10;

    ScrollablePanel(final LayoutManager layout) {
      super(layout);
    }

    @Override
    public Dimension getPreferredScrollableViewportSize() {
      return getPreferredSize();
    }

    @Override
    public int getScrollableUnitIncrement(
        final Rectangle visibleRect,
        final int orientation,
        final int direction) {
      final var currentPosition = orientation == SwingConstants.HORIZONTAL ? visibleRect.x : visibleRect.y;

      if (direction < 0) {
        final var newPosition = currentPosition - currentPosition / INCREMENT * INCREMENT;
        return newPosition == 0 ? INCREMENT : newPosition;
      }

      return (currentPosition / INCREMENT + 1) * INCREMENT - currentPosition;
    }

    @Override
    public int getScrollableBlockIncrement(
        final Rectangle visibleRect,
        final int orientation,
        final int direction) {
      return orientation == SwingConstants.HORIZONTAL ? visibleRect.width - INCREMENT : visibleRect.height - INCREMENT;
    }

    @Override
    public boolean getScrollableTracksViewportWidth() {
      final var parent = getParent();
      return parent instanceof JViewport && parent.getWidth() > getMinimumSize().width;
    }

    @Override
    public boolean getScrollableTracksViewportHeight() {
      final var parent = getParent();
      return parent instanceof JViewport && parent.getHeight() > getMinimumSize().height;
    }
  }
}

A: Just my thought, your design is not fully consistent, since JScrollPane's viewport is based on preferredSize, while you track viewport width and height till the minimum size.
A possible workaround is to set the preferred size of the scrollable to the minimum size after packing the frame, this will avoid the viewport to expand to the original preferred size when the scrollbar is activated.
    frame.pack();
    panel.setPreferredSize(panel.getMinimumSize());
    frame.setVisible(true);

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
using JetBrains.Annotations;
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using UnityEngine;

namespace Assets.Scripts
{
    public class InputHandler
    {
        private readonly IEnumerable<IRaycastHitHandler> _handlers;

        public InputHandler([NotNull] params IRaycastHitHandler[] handlers)
        {
            if (handlers == null)
            {
                throw new ArgumentNullException("handlers");
            }

            _handlers = handlers;
        }

        public void HandleRaycastHit(RaycastHit hit)
        {
            foreach (var handler in _handlers)
            {
                var component = hit.transform.gameObject.GetComponent(handler.ComponentType);
                if (component != null)
                {
                    handler.Handle(hit, component);
                }
            }
        }
    }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


The board of directors met in January. Major discussion included the aging building and mechanical systems long past their lifespan. The board saw an initial building renovation proposal. The board agreed to continue the process by hosting special committees to look at financial strategies, logistics and marketing.
January 23rd was a great day!! The Pool was re-dedicated and a ribbon cutting held. Water Classes begin in February. Thanks for your patience!
The Morris AB Room will be closed in February so we can install a new heating system. Thanks for adapting, as we will need to move groups around to accommodate everyone.


Many brand owners outsource whole/part of their production. Should there be any illegal overruns or pilferage, it can be hard to detect especially if there are many outsourced factories to manage. Furthermore, complex product distribution channels across different regions add to the problem.
Companies normally do not have visibility of how their products are being distributed beyond their 1st and 2nd layers of main distribution channels. Track and Trace of products to the end consumers are often limited. Compared to detecting outright product counterfeit from fake factories, leakages along the supply chain is more difficult to spot.
By incorporating Internet of Things (IOT) devices together with fast verification technologies such as RFID, QR codes would allow automation and ease of tracking that we have not seen before.
Together with application of Block-chain, we can be assured that track and trace along the supply chain for food, consumer and industrial products will be highly visible and trustworthy. Smart tracking provide us with the safety and security that we truly need in this modern world!
With growth of E-Commerce, the problem gets exploded given the vast avenues for the counterfeiters. Brands may be able to protect the authenticity of goods sold through authorized distribution channels. However, they cannot easily control the sale of fake goods, sold as genuine, on the internet.
Internet is often clouded with many non-credible product and service providers simulating real offerings. It is essential for companies and consumers to be able to verify offers that they see on the internet.
Through product authentication with track and trace solutions can we then ensure of genuine supplies.


text:
Pater noster
January 24, 2012 By Kirk R Brown in John Bartram is at home.	Leave a comment
"Muse, tell me the cause: how was she offended in her divinity? How was she grieved, the Queen of Heaven, to drive a man, noted for virtue, to endure such dangers, to face so many trials? Can there be such anger in the minds of the gods?" The Aeneid, Virgil
Pater noster. Our father.
It is a papist sentiment and I never thought myself capable of one. But here I am and here is the sentiment. Staring me in the face of all that I consider to be sacrosanct. Another papist thought.
They collect around me this morning in a dim and frosty light. Anathema. Now there is a religious sentiment with which I have some familiarity. Outcast and pariah all carry the same meaning and weight.
There was a man who claimed much of his life's inspiration came from this first reading in Latin of Virgil's epic poem. This man claimed as his most esteemed mentor the priest who unlocked the door to the magical reading room.
The Aeneid begins as quoted above. It is the story of band of men in search of country…home…and ultimately God. It is a tale of hardships shared, trials survived, and treacheries overcome. It was a world much like our current one where heroes are made on a patch of turf 100 yards long.
Much the same as today's tale, the Aeneid is a great love story. A passionate affair of man to woman and hero to nation.
Unlike our current tale, the Aeneid ends in triumph as Aeneas vanquishes his enemy and achieves his destiny.
Life rarely imitates art. In this cold and bitter morning our tale's would-be hero rests not on laurels but on criticisms from those who would be like Cassius:
"Why, man, he doth bestride the narrow world like a Colossus, and we petty men walk under his huge legs and peep about to find ourselves dishonorable graves. Men at some time are masters of their fates: The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves, that we are underlings." Julius Caesar, William Shakespeare
I come not to bury Caesar, but to praise him. My Pater Noster will dwell on recognition of goodness and valor, humor and strength. It will speak to the legions of followers who like their dramas large and heroes free from stain. And to the smaller numbers of those who believe that common humanity binds us all into forgiving frailty and imperfection.
Virgil's Aeneas founded a dynasty that became the Roman Empire. He was a mythological being crafted to support a reign of Caesars. Our modern-day Caesar ruled a world where Brutus and Cassius played out their drama in the intensely bright light of moral scrutiny. The battle lines were drawn across computer screens. The armies were arrayed in blue and white and red.
Virgil could never imagine an enemy of such scope and reach. And then again, perhaps he did. In Virgil's age, the enemy was most often defined as "The Gods!"
Today we are much too civilized and God is silent.
Pater Noster.
« They Planted Trees on the Roof
A Winter's Night »


This paper investigates the ability of generative networks to convert their input noise distributions into other distributions. Firstly, we demonstrate a construction that allows ReLU networks to increase the dimensionality of their noise distribution by implementing a ``space-filling'' function based on iterated tent maps. We show this construction is optimal by analyzing the number of affine pieces in functions computed by multivariate ReLU networks. Secondly, we provide efficient ways (using polylog$(1/\epsilon)$ nodes) for networks to pass between univariate uniform and normal distributions, using a Taylor series approximation and a binary search gadget for computing function inverses. Lastly, we indicate how high dimensional distributions can be efficiently transformed into low dimensional distributions.


text:
Västra palearktis, förkortat VP, eller Västpalearktis är en del av den djurgeografiska regionen Palearktis. Termen används oftast i ornitologiska sammanhang men även av vissa entomologer och forskare som studerar fiskar.

Historik
Uttrycket blev populärt i och med den stora försäljningssuccén av Cramp & Simmons Handbook of the Birds of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. Birds of the Western Palearctic från 1977 som ofta förkortas BWP.

Gränsdragning
Sett från ett västeuropeiskt perspektiv så skulle man kunna säga att Västra palearktis är "vår del av världen". Det finns några olika idéer hur utbredningen av detta område ska avgränsas. Gränserna i norr och väster är okontroversiella men olika forskare argumenterar för olika gränsdragningar i söder och öster. Nedan följer den indelning som Sveriges Ornitologiska Förening uppger.

Den yttre gränsen för Västra palearktis utbredning enligt SOF
Åt norr innefattas följande öar:
Island, Jan Mayen, Svalbard, Frans Josefs land och Novaja Zemlja.
Åt väster innefattas följande atlantiska öar:
Azorerna, Madeira, Kanarieöarna & Kap Verde och öarna vid Banc d'Arguin (men inte fastlandet innanför, d.v.s. Mauretanien)
Sydgränsen
Tvärs över Afrika längs 21 bredgraden, från Ras ben Sakka till och med Ras Abu Shagara i Sudan, plus bergsmassivet Tibesti, som sträcker sig söderut till 19 bredgraden i Tchad och Libyen. Sedan ner till och med Jemen (utom Socotra) och Oman.
Östgränsen
Öster till och med Irak och östra Turkiet. Genom Kaspiska havet och upp längs västra sidan av Uralbergen.

Alternativa gränsdragningar
Erling Jirle och Erik Hirschfeld med flera menar att VP även ska inkludera hela den arabiska halvön och antingen ska den sydöstra gränsen dras mitt i Iran, väster om de båda bergskedjorna Elburz och Zagros, eller till och med inkludera hela Iran.

Källor

Externa länkar
Västra palearktis enligt Birdlife Sverige

Djurgeografiska regioner
Natur i Europa

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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This Is A Test No Age on Amp Blending Re-amping and New Sampling
Like their last record, Nouns, No Age's third full-length album was recorded with engineer Pete Lyman at Infrasonic Sound Recording Company in Los Angeles. But rather than mimicking the success of their sophomore album, No Age decided that this time they'd balance their energetic musical capabilities with new recording skills.
Angelina Skowronski
"When we tour, we like to play songs that are more aggressive to get the crowd going. For this album, we sat back and realized we needed more songs that were more progressive, to yin and yang the album," drummer Dean Spunt says.
A two-man operation, No Age recorded the bulk of the album—title TBA, out on Sub Pop this fall—live, playing guitars and drums while also triggering samples. "We recorded the intro sounds on 'Aim at the Airport' with an Edirol R- 09HR, a handheld WAV recorder, from the luggage carousel at an airport in Australia," Spunt says. "The wave sounds in the end were recorded with the Edirol on the beach in New Zealand." The guys created other samples by meshing guitars, vocals, and keyboards with effects from DigiTech JamMan pedals and onboard effects from a Roland SP-555 sampler.
To mic the drums, Lyman set up a Radio Shack PZM mic taped to the outside of the control-room window, an AEA R84 behind Spunt, a Neumann Gefell UM57 six feet in front of the kit, and two Beyerdynamic M 160s set farther away "and spread wide for a more live-sounding feel," Lyman says.
For his live tracks, guitarist Randy Randall used a Sunn Beta Lead Combo, a Supro, and a small Ampeg bass amp. "He splits the signal at his pedal board so a clean line goes to the bass amp, pre-effects, and the other amps are post effects," Lyman explains.
The tracks were captured to a 2-inch, 16-track Otari MTR90 MKIII machine and then dumped to Pro Tools for overdubs. And an Otari MX5050 1/4- inch machine was used for slapback. "We would mess with the tape as it was recording and then print back into Pro Tools," Lyman says.
After recording basic guitar and drum tracks live, Randall's guitars overdubs involved several amps, including a Sunn Model T and Beta Lead, a Supro, and a Fender Champ. "Sometimes it may be all the amps at once," Lyman says. "I use a custom Inward Connections guitar splitter to distribute the signals. We then switch between the amps depending on the sound Randy is envisioning. There are two Coles 4038s about nine feet back in the room during most of the overdubs."
Vocals were recorded through the UM57 into a Shadow Hills preamp on the Steel setting, into an API 550A and a Purple Audio MC77. "During the mix, vocals were compressed again with an Inward Connections Vac Rac compressor," Lyman adds.
After initial tracks and overdubs were recorded, they took the sounds to another level. "They are really into re-amping," Lyman says. "We have reamped everything: vocals, snares, guitars, drums, samples, etc."
"We like re-amping with samples to catch them again to get nitty-gritty sounds," Spunt elaborates. "We have a Supra Amp from the '60s that we use, and Randy rewired his first amp called a Gorrilla that we use for back tunes. I also have a noise gate that I was getting into and running complete mixes through it to get a weird sound."
The guys sent tracks out of Pro Tools, into a Little Labs Direct/Reamp box, and then into the amp. "The amp was then miked and sent back to Pro Tools," Lyman explains. "The re-amped track was then blended with the raw track, or in some cases it was totally replaced."
Lyman mixed through a Rupert Neve Designs 5088 console, using an Ecoplate and EMT 250 plate for reverb and a DeltaLab Effectron, Roland Space Echo, and Chorus Echo for delay. During mixdown, he bussed guitars through two Neve 1064s and two silver-face 1176s. For more grit, Lyman used his Standard Audio Level- Or as a sub-bus on guitars and also used it for parallel compression on drums. "I inserted the Level-Or on a bus and sent the kick and snare to the bus, as well as the direct out, then blended them to taste," he says.
But Lyman's traditional recording techniques were often challenged. "Their approach is completely different than most bands—they really push me to try things that I wouldn't normally do," Lyman says, referring to recording with old cassette players and being forced to add abundant low end to guitars. "Sometimes it doesn't make sense to me at the time, but I just hang in there to see how it develops, and they're usually right."
A Re-amping Primer
A couple of years ago I was working on a song where I added a rockin' guitar part, and, as I do a lot more recording than playing these days, it took quite a few passes before I got enough good bits for a decent comp track. Then, by the time I got all the other instruments and vocals onto the song, the guitar part sounded a little thin. I couldn't bear to go back and re-record the darn thing. I spent a lot of time with various effects before I turned it back into something acceptable, but I couldn't help but wish I had been able to choose the amp sound at mixdown. That's when it occurred to me that I can! Well, not actually for that track, but ever since that day, I've saved my amp selection until later. Here's the basic 411 on how I delay my tonal decisions.
Avid Pro Tools LE Re-Amping Using Eleven Rack
OBJECTIVE: Take existing tracks, especially (but not only) guitar, and process them through different amp and processor settings using Avid's Eleven Rack guitar processor.
Coming Of Age Brandon Flowers
About 250 miles north of Las Vegas, U.S. Highway 50, nicknamed "The Loneliest Road in America," winds its way across the desolate landscape of central Nevada like an ornery old rattlesnake of dust and asphalt.
Cake's John McCrea lives in 2011, but his stance is pure 1948. Cake is the last anti-establishment band, and McCrea is its prickly circus barker, a deceptively mellow fellow veiling lyrics rich in social criticism and harangues at a bloated America within the band's primitive-sounding, almost folk productions.
Gear-Gasm A Report on New Gear for 2010
Trade shows are where products are introduced, connections are made, friendships are renewed, and partnerships are forged. And like clockwork, after every show there's a flurry of show reports that tell you what was shown—but let's probe a little deeper, take a look back, and sort out the significant products (with some background for context) and figure out why they matter.
Suzanne Ciani on New Age Synth
Composer, pianist, and recording artist Suzanne Ciani has been a true pioneer in the field of electronic music. She has released 15 albums, ten of them on her own independent label Seventh Wave. A five time Grammy nominee in New
Iron amp Wine Interview Extras
EQ Interview Extras: Iron and Wine-more wisdom from Iron & Wine (Sam Beam) and producer engineer Brian Deck
Gadgets amp Goodies
REALLY COOL TOOLS FOR AUDIO-TO-GO From mics to monitoring to multitrack recording, we've unearthed some great goodies for mobile audio.


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Leeds United reportedly looking at signing Argentine starlet... for Cultural Leonesa
Emi Buendia will reportedly stay at Cultural Leonesa the rest of the year on loan but will join Leeds in the summer
By Pete Schlenker Jan 26, 2018, 7:00am GMT
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Photo by Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images
Leeds United are rumoured to be interested in signing another player that will be on loan at Cultural Leonesa. Emi Buendía is already on loan at Cultural, but it appears that Leeds are looking to sign him from his parent club Getafe and keep him on loan at Cultural.
No habrá caso Buendía. Al menos de momento. El pase de Emi a la Championship está casi cerrado pero continuará en la Cultural hasta el final de temporada.
— Juega en Segunda. (@juegaensegunda) January 25, 2018
I've read now that it can be a permanent move from next summer and he will finish the season here. Not sure what to think, if it's permanent you'll probably have to pay good money.
— CyD Leonesa English (@CyDLeonesa_en) January 25, 2018
Leeds was linked with a January deal for the player back in September, and now reports out of Spain say that he could be on his way to Leeds in the summer, with a deal being agreed during the January transfer window with Getafe.
Emi is a very talented player, he played almost every game and he scored twice but he is not the smartest guy. He was the one who uploaded the video with Yelko Pino insulting the club and he was laughing at it, so people is not very happy with him.
Buendía is in a little bit of hot water at his current club, as he uploaded a video that showed one of his teammates insulting the club to Instagram, which resulted in the other player, Yelko Pino, being dismissed from the club. He's a talented player, for sure, and his season has mirrored the season that Cultural has had. He was good in the early part of the season, but as Cultural's fortunes have faltered, so has his. He's scored two goals in La Liga 2 and one goal in the Copa del Ray this season for Cultural, but he has added seven assists.
He have never played in that central position behind the striker here in León. Always as a winger.
Buendía has apparently played mainly as a winger for Cultural this season, and with depth on the wings being tested this season, he could easily slot in on the wings this season or next season. He's a former Argentina u20 player, and he was on the books of Real Madrid as a youth player before joining Getafe.
It makes sense that Leeds would be interested in a player that plays at Cultural Leonesa, its partner club in Spain. Cultural Leonesa is owned by the Aspire Academy, who recently made their partnership with Leeds United official. Along with Cultural Leonesa, the Aspire Academy are also owners of KAS Eupen in the first division in Belgium.
The deal for Buendía is slightly strange, but considering that Leeds already have new signing Yosuke Ideguchi on loan there, it's not that strange. Leonesa need the players to avoid relegation this season, and since he's already on loan there, he'll just stay at his current club while his "parent" club changes.
While Leeds could use the depth at winger and attacking midfielder right now at the club with Samu Saiz still suspended for another four matches. However, Stuart Dallas appears to have returned to fitness and Gjanni Alioski available, Buendía isn't guaranteed a starting position at Leeds right now. It might be better for him to adjust to the Championship after a full training camp, and this also helps Leeds in the long run to have their partner club in Spain, Cultural, stay in the second division in Spain.


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The accuracy of hybrid estimating approaches? Case study of an Australian state road & traffic authority
Case Study Estimating, Construction 14 July 2010
PMI Research and Education Conference
Liu, Li | Wehbe, George | Sisovic, Jonathan
Liu, L., Wehbe, G., & Sisovic, J. (2010). The accuracy of hybrid estimating approaches? Case study of an Australian state road & traffic authority. PMI Research and Education Conference.
*Corresponding Author.
Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) is increasingly being adopted to mitigate two main factors causing persistent cost overruns in infrastructure projects—optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. In practice, organizations tend to tailor generic estimating approaches to their unique operating environments by developing hybrid approaches blending RCF with other approaches such as the conventional fixed contingency approach. Yet, little empirical evidence exists on the accuracy of RCF or its variations. This study presents the results of estimation accuracy of a sample of road projects conducted by an Australian State Road & Traffic Authority using a hybrid estimating approach blending primarily RCF with fixed contingency approach. The results are then compared with historical results from literature on infrastructure projects and samples of two other dominant estimation methods, namely the conventional fixed contingency approach and risk-based estimating (RBE).
This study finds that the average accuracy of this sample using the hybrid approach compares favorably to historical results, which typically use the fixed contingency approach. This finding is further supported through comparison with a sample of conventional construction projects using a fixed contingency approach that shows the hybrid sample tends to produce estimates that are more likely to lead to under-budget rather than over-budget with similar dispersion around the mean estimation error. Additionally, the hybrid sample is compared with a sample of water projects using the RBE method to explore the differences in accuracy between the two methods. The results suggest that RBE is more accurate than the hybrid approach. The findings have important implications for both practice and future research.
The cost overrun of large infrastructure projects has remained unchanged during the past 70 years (Bruzelius et al., 2002). Studies report that inaccuracy in cost estimation ranges from 20.4% to 44.7% depending on the type of project. Overruns of 50% to 100% in fixed prices are common for major infrastructure projects, and overruns above 100% are not uncommon (Flyvbjerg et al., 2003; Flyvbjerg et al., 2002; Flyvbjerg et al., 2005a). Two of the main factors leading to inaccurate cost forecast for infrastructure projects are optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation (Bruzelius et al., 2002; Flyvbjerg et al., 2006). Optimism bias relates to the tendency for people to be over-optimistic by overestimating benefits and underestimating costs (Lovallo and Kahneman, 2003), while strategic misrepresentation refers to deliberately misrepresented project costs and risks for political, economic, and/or other gains (Flyvbjerg et al., 2006).
The main consequence of both optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in cost estimation is the failure to fully account for risks/uncertainties in the estimates, due mainly to the belief that "results are determined purely by their own actions and those of their organizations" (Lovallo and Kahneman, 2003). As a consequence, flawed planning, breakdown in the relationship between the client and contractors, and difficulties in delivering the project, result in both project delays and cost overruns.
Kahneman and Lovallo (1993) conclude that the only way to mitigate optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation is to take the "outside view" when making decisions. The "outside view" typically comes from objective past performance data or the opinions from stakeholders who do not have a vested interest in getting the project up and running. Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) was introduced recently as a technique that mitigates optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. It utilizes a database of actual performance of comparable past projects within a given reference class to provide an objective reference point for the cost forecast of a current project (Flyvbjerg et al., 2005a). Based on the distribution of overrun and project estimators' preference for risk of cost overrun, percentage uplift is determined and added to the base estimate as risk contingency (Flyvbjerg et al., 2002). The main challenge for applying the RCF method is the accumulation of a sample of similar projects with large enough sample size and accurate cost information (Napier and Liu, 2008).
Despite the increased adoption of the RCF approach, little empirical evidence exists on the accuracy of RCF and how it compares to other dominant cost estimation methods. In practice, organizations tend to tailor generic estimating approaches to their unique operating environments by developing hybrid approaches, blending RCF with other approaches such as the conventional fixed contingency approach. From a theory development perspective, it is important to validate the theoretical framework underpinning the RCF approach or its variations through a comparison of predictive accuracy with historic accuracy data and other dominant approaches. For practitioners, such evidence will help them in choosing and adopting the best-practice project cost estimation method. This study compares a sample using a hybrid estimating approach, blending RCF with fixed contingency approach with historic accuracy data and samples of two other dominant estimation methods, namely the conventional fixed contingency approach and RBE. The results are presented and discussed.
In the sections below, literature is reviewed. Then, data collection is described, sample characteristics outlined and the analysis process explained. Third, the results are presented; validity threats, implications and future directions are discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn.
This section reviews relevant literature on estimation methods. It starts with cost estimation accuracy at various project stages. Then, past findings on cost overruns of infrastructure projects and factors causing the cost overruns are reviewed. Finally, the three most commonly used cost estimating procedures are introduced and research question specified.
A typical construction project can be divided into five stages, conceptual or strategic stage, conceptual design stage, tender or detailed stage, preconstruction stage, and build stage (Liu and Zhu, 2007). At each of these stages, the amount of money required to undertake a project is estimated. Both the level of organizational resources committed to cost estimation, and the estimation accuracy, increase as a project progresses from early to later stages. A typical project cost estimate includes a base estimate, which accounts for physical material and labor quantities, plus a risk contingency, which quantifies the level of uncertainty or risk associated with the estimate. Figure 1 shows the two components that constitute project cost estimate.
Figure 1. Project Cost Estimate
The base estimate is generally derived through the multiplication of dollar rates and quantities of project components. Risk contingency "is expected to be expended [and is] an amount added to an estimate to allow for items, conditions, or events for which the state, occurrence, or effect is uncertain and that experience shows will likely result, in aggregate, in additional costs" (Anonymous, 2007). There are various methods that can be used to quantify the risk contingency, such as reference class forecasting, the conventional contingency approach and risk-based estimating, each of which is introduced below.
The cost estimates produced at different stages of the same project carries different levels of uncertainties/risks and thus different estimation accuracies. As a project progresses through its lifecycle, more information about the project's scope, design, and specifications become available, which enable the estimation team to more accurately estimate the quantity and price of material and resources. As a result, generally more risk contingency is applied at the earlier stages than in later stages. Studies have shown that the typical estimation accuracy is 30% to 50% at the conceptual stage (Ashworth & Skitmore, 1982); around 20% at the design stage (Morrison, 1984); about 10% at the tendering stage (Flanagan & Norman, 1983), and; 5% during preconstruction stage (Ferry & Brandon, 1991).
Most studies examine estimation accuracy by comparing the estimate at the tender stage with the actual cost of the projects. Because it is generally prepared after tendering and influenced by the tender price, preconstruction cost estimate is primarily used for cost control purposes and not used to assess project estimation accuracy.
Project cost performance and causal factors for cost overruns
Despite decades of efforts in reducing project cost overruns, large infrastructure projects still continue to be plagued by delays and large cost overruns. The collective evidence from studies on project cost performance conducted throughout the world shows the recurring pervasiveness of cost overruns (Flyvbjerg et al., 2002; Pickrell, 1990; Merewitz, 1973). Further, the phenomenon is not limited to any geographic location, impacting on infrastructure projects all around the world (Flyvbjerg et al., 2005b).
An early study conducted in the 1980s by the Department of Industry, Technology and Resources, Victoria (DITR, 1989), Australia, examined project performance of 21 infrastructure projects from both the UK and Australia with a total value of $7.66 billion (in 1988 Australian dollar). Of the 21 projects, six were delivered by the public sector and the remaining 15 were conducted by the private sector. The study found that 50% of projects delivered by government entities exceeded their estimated cost by more than 20%. In contrast, cost performance by the private sector was better with 60% of the projects having actual costs within ±5% of estimates.
Table 1 compiles the key statistics by studies examining the cost performance of various infrastructure projects across the world. Table 1 shows that, of the 2,221 projects investigated, the average overrun for each study ranges from 5% to 88% with a mean of 34.7% while the standard deviation ranges from 29.2% to 62% with a mean of 37.8%. These statistics shows that the cost overrun for infrastructure projects is substantial and that the consistency of cost estimates are far from satisfactory. To quote from one of the most cited studies, Flyvbjerg et al. (2005b) found that cost estimates for large infrastructure projects are "highly and systematically misleading". Their study found that 86% of all examined projects (258 in total) exceeded their estimated cost with an average overrun of between 20% and 45%.
Table 1. Project Cost Performance Findings
Author & Year Sample Size Type of Project Mean SD
Odeck, 2004 610 Road Infrastructure 7.88% 29.20%
Odeck & Skjeseth, 1995 12 Toll Roads 5% --
Bertisen & Davis, 2008 63 Mining and Smelting Projects 25% 30%
Thomas, 2001 21 Mining 17% --
Flyvbjerg, Holm, & Buhl, 2004 58 Rail 45% 38%
Flyvbjerg, Holm, & Buhl, 2004 33 Bridges and Tunnels 34% 62%
Flyvbjerg, Holm, & Buhl, 2004 167 Roads 20% 30%
Pohl & Mihaljek, 2002 1015 World Bank Projects 22% --
Pickrell, 1990 8 Rail 60% --
AGS, 1994 8 Road 86% --
AGS, 1994 7 Rail 17% --
Fouracre, Allport, & Thomson, 1990 21 Metro Projects 45% --
Merrow, 1988 47 Various 88% --
Gypton, 2002 60 Mining 22% --
Castle, 1985 17 Mining 35% --
Bennett, 1997 16 Mining 27% --
Average 34.7% 37.8%
The above studies have identified a number of factors contributing to persistent cost overrun. Poorly defined scope or significant scope changes that were not accounted in the base estimate could lead to significant overruns (Picckrell, 1990; Bertisen & Davis, 2008). Similarly, incorrect quantities and unit rates for material and labor quantities could produce inadequate bases estimate and subsequently lead to overruns (Odeck & Skjeseth, 1995; Pohl & Mihaljek, 1992).
Some scholars have argued that the cost estimates of projects are sometimes so complex and unique that the ability to learn from past mistakes is limited (McMillan, 1992). Further, Touran and Lopez (2006) contend that given the time length between estimation and project completion, price fluctuation in construction costs tends to increase the difficulty of estimating and drives estimates to become very unreliable. Whilst acknowledging that both poor scope definition and mistakes within the preparation of the base estimate do lead to error, a number of scholars (Odeck, 2004; Flyvbjerg et al., 2005b; Bertisen & Davis, 2008) have argued strongly that the scope changes and errors in preparing the estimates should not lead to persistent cost overruns. Instead, they argue that the estimating errors derived from scope changes and preparation errors should be random and unsystematic, thus in the long term should not result in a systematic bias (e.g. either persistent under run or overrun). The errors could also come from imperfect techniques, inadequate data, honest mistakes, modeling errors and lack of experience (Bruzelius et al., 2002; Morris & Hough, 1987; Wachs, 1990). Mistakes happen, however the human ability to learn from mistakes suggests that the extent of these errors should improve over time (Flyvbjerg et al., 2002).
"Optimism Bias" has been identified as another primary cause of underestimation (Flyvbjerg, 2006; Kahneman & Lovallo, 1993; Mackie & Preston, 1998). The term was coined by Kahneman and refers to the human tendency to exaggerate one's own ability and underestimate potential difficulties (Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003; Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). It deals with an unintentional cognitive predisposition to view a situation more positively than is warranted (Flyvbjerg, 2006; Kahneman & Lovallo, 1993; Kahneman, 1994; Kahneman & Tversky, 1979).
People tend to be optimistic about what they can achieve and this optimism can lead to 'planning fallacy' (Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003). A project usually starts with a preliminary plan, which typically puts the project in a positive light. The subsequent analysis of the project is anchored on the preliminary plan and is effectively skewed toward over optimism (Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003). This anchoring is one of the main reasons that cause systematic bias in cost estimation. The problem becomes particularly acute when pessimistic views are suppressed and optimistic opinions rewarded and, as a result, people lose the ability to think critically (Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003).
Finally, strategic misrepresentation, which refers to the intentional deception designed to secure a favorable outcome for the project promoters (Flyvbjerg et al., 2002), has been identified as a major contributor to persistent project cost overrun. For example, contractors are motivated to secure contracts by lowering bidding price if they can jack up prices through variations during the construction phase. Trujillo et al. (2002) conclude that politicians have an incentive to embark on construction of large infrastructure projects because they enjoy a greater gain from such announcements compared to the losses incurred by having to raise taxes later. The Sydney Opera House is an example of strategic misrepresentation. With an actual cost 15 times the original, promoters knew that such an expenditure would be seen as unfavorable in the public eye and strategically underestimated it to ensure that prompt approval for the construction was granted (Flyvbjerg, 2005).
Cost forecasting methods and their relative estimation accuracies
The dominant method used in the construction industry can be classified into three types: the reference class forecasting (RCF), conventional contingency approach and RBE. Below, the three types of methods are described and propositions about their relative accuracy explained.
The conventional contingency approach
There are various techniques that can be used to estimate risk contingency including subjective judgment, sensitivity analysis, real options analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation (Akintoye & MacLeod, 1997). The most commonly used method is the deterministic contingency application (hereafter referred to as Conventional Contingency Approach) (Tummala et al., 1997). In Australia, construction contractors generally use such deterministic models to assess risks and opportunities in projects (Fayek et al., 1998).
The deterministic contingency approach adds an arbitrary percentage to the base estimate to account for risks. The contingency amount is typically determined based on an estimator's intuition or past experience. The contingency percentage depends on the type and lifecycle phase of the project with little consideration for the component risks involved (DITR, 1989). For example, a company may apply 10% contingency to the project estimate of all building construction projects and 20% to all civil engineering projects, regardless of differences in risks in the project cost components such as machinery or financing costs. Because of the arbitrary nature of this approach, it is especially vulnerable to optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation.
Reference class forecasting
The RCF approach mitigates optimism bias and strategic representation by taking the "outside view". It uses a database of actual performance of comparable past projects within a given reference class to provide an objective reference point for the cost forecast of a current project (Flyvbjerg et al., 2005a). Through Monte Carlo simulations, the distribution of project cost overrun in the class is derived. One commonly used simulation result is the so-called S-curve, which visually links the probability of overrun with specific percentage project budget overrun. Based on the project estimators' preference for risk overrun and the S-curve, an uplift percentage is determined and added to the base estimate as risk contingency (Flyvbjerg, 2006).
RCF is starting to be adopted by the construction industry including the British Department for Transport and a State Road and Traffic Authority in Australia (hereafter referred to as the Authority). Since it is a relatively new practice, few extant studies have examined its effectiveness. Flyvbjerg and COWI (2004) are the first to provide a comprehensive guideline for using RCF to mitigate the effects of optimism bias. In practice, there is no "standard" RCF code of practice. Variations exist on how the approach is applied.
The main challenge for applying the RCF method is the accumulation of a sample of similar projects with large enough sample size and accurate cost information. It may take a very long time to develop such a database. For some types of projects that are relatively rare in a country (e.g. nuclear power plants or large-scale desalination plants), it may never be possible to have a sample size large enough for statistical analysis. The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that private companies may not be willing to share such commercially sensitive information with competitors or the governmental agencies.
Risk-based estimating
RBE takes a step further in modeling project costs. Rather than add a contingency to the total project cost as in RCF and the conventional contingency approach, RBE models the cost of individual components with base estimates and stochastic risk contingencies. The distribution of the overall project cost (or project budget S-curve) is derived by summing up the stochastic cost components (Shaheen et al., 2007). The S-curve relates specific project budgets with corresponding probability of cost overrun. The project cost estimate is determined using the S-curve based on an organization's estimation procedure and the estimating team's preference for risk of cost overrun.
RBE method starts with the identification of two categories of risks: inherent risks and contingent risks. Inherent risks are those that are internal to a project and uncertain in quantities, rates, and scope such as material or labor costs. Contingent risks are external events that may occur throughout the life of a project but not assumed in the base estimate (Aspinall & Trueman, 2006). For example, the risk of an earthquake during construction. The two types of risks are handled differently in that contingent risks are assigned a probability of occurring (usually low probability events) while inherent risks are assumed to exist throughout the construction process (Uher, 1996). For details about how the risks are quantified in RBE, please refer to Napier and Liu (2008).
Instead of relying on the simulation results of past project performance data, the RBE approach can take into account outside views from a variety of sources, both the subjective judgment from different experts and stakeholders, and objective data if available. The typical process is to go through a risk workshop attended by experts, stakeholders, and estimators, during which time the base estimates and corresponding risk contingencies for each individual components are determined through a consensus-building process (Aspinall & Trueman, 2006). Then, Monte Carlo simulation is conducted for the total project budget (Napier & Liu, 2008; Chau, 1995).
RBE has only recently been introduced into Australia. The study by Napier & Liu (2008) examined estimation accuracy of 11 recent projects undertaken by the Sydney Water Corporation. Preliminary findings suggest that RBE has good predictive validity with 10 of the 11 projects had an actual cost within the range of the risk-based estimate.
In practice, organizations tend to tailor generic estimating approaches to their unique operating environments by developing hybrid approaches blending various approaches. For example, rather than conducting Monte Carlo simulation analysis for each project to decide the amount of uplift needed for each project as recommended by Flyvbjerg and COWI (2004), some organizations choose to simplify the process by working out a range for the uplift and then apply it to project components as ranges for contingencies. Another common hybrid practice is to require all the estimates be checked against accumulated historical data on similar estimates—reference to "outside view".
Despite the increasing popularity of the RCF approach and its variations, there is very little empirical evidence on the accuracy of RCF or its variations, which is the motivation for this study. The research question for this study is: How accurate is the hybrid estimating approaches?
In this section, the data collection process and sample characteristics are outlined first. Then the analysis process is explained.
RCF sample data
The primary data sample used in the study comprise of 52 road projects during 2000 and 2005 by the Authority, of which, the data on 44 projects were collected directly from the Authority with a total value of $2.17 billion and the remaining eight are collected from the auditing report by the Office of the Auditor General, Australia. Because all the projects in the sample were estimated following a procedure that blends RCF with fixed contingency approach, we refer to this sample as the hybrid sample.
The Authority's estimating manual requires that contingency to project estimates be made within specified ranges depending on the stage and type of the estimate. For example, contingency for detailed estimates needs to be within the range of 10% to 20% while 20% to 35% for concept estimate stage. Contingencies outside the ranges specified in the manual need to be justified. The contingency ranges are determined based on historical performance data—a practice that mirrors the RCF approach. The manual also stipulates that estimates be checked for discrepancy against historical data accumulated over time by the Authority adjusted for inflation and time—another practice at the core of RCF, seeking objective, outside views.
The data was compiled based on past project reports. The data contains estimates at three different stages: strategic, concept, and detailed, respectively. Only the detailed stage estimates are used in this paper. In addition, the actual cost for each project was also provided. Detailed estimates were provided for 30 of the 44 projects. All of the estimates were conducted following the 2001 version of the Authority's project estimating manual.
Since any significant scope change in a project could account for the escalation of costs, it is important to partial out the scope change effect to ascertain the accuracy of specific estimation methods. Discussions with Authority revealed that two of the projects had significant scope changes and the remaining 42 projects did not experience any significant scope changes. Subsequently, we have excluded the two projects with significant scope changes from the sample.
Data on a further eight completed Authority projects with a total value of $1.57 billion were obtained from the Auditor General's Report to Parliament (AGNSW, 2007). The estimate and final cost for each project is given in June 2007 dollars. Subsequent discussions with the Authority indicate that these projects were also estimated using the 2001 project estimating manual—using the hybrid approach. Combined with the 42 Authority projects, the final sample contained data on 50 projects.
The estimates and actual costs were produced at different years. Most estimates have been provided dates about when the estimation was conducted. For those estimates without specific dates, the Authority suggests that there is generally two years between the detailed estimate and actual cost. To account for differences in time value of money, the estimates and actual costs have all been converted to June 2008 dollars using the Road and Bridge Construction Index (RBC) as the relevant inflation rate. The RBC takes into consideration prices of material and labor commonly used in infrastructure construction projects and hence is considered an appropriate measure for cost escalation experienced by projects in this study.
The index is compiled quarterly each year. The reference dates provided with the data do not necessarily match with the index compilation dates. In this study, the RBC value for a particular date, which falls between the two compilation dates, is determined by linearly interpolating the index between the closest compilation dates to give a weighted average index at the reference date.
The conventional project sample
The RCF performance data was compared with the estimating performance of a sample of Australian construction projects using the conventional fixed contingency approach. The sample was collected by first identifying 232 Australian construction companies, including general, heavy construction, and special trade contractors within the definition of the Standard Industry Classification (SIC) code, 15211799, with annual turnover exceeding A$40 million (Australian dollar).
A fax was sent to each Chief Executive Officer (CEO) or Managing Director seeking a list of project managers who could potentially participate in the survey. Questionnaires were sent to the 200 project managers identified, of which 41 completed and returned the questionnaire, representing a response rate of 20 percent. The project size ranged from A$1.2million to A$191million with a mean of about A$31million.
The respondents were asked to answer in percentage terms the deviation of actual project cost from estimated cost. As in the RCF sample, significant scope changes could seriously affect the accuracy as measured in this study and thus the validity of the findings. To guard against the risk, we had asked the respondents to indicate "if the project was substantially re-scoped". The projects that have been significantly re-scoped had been excluded from the analysis. In addition, to partial out the effects of small adjustments to project costs on accuracy, the respondents were instructed to use adjusted cost as the estimated cost "if project budget were adjusted during the course of the project by agreement with the client".
The survey did not specifically identify the estimation approach. However, it is unlikely that RCF was adopted by any Australian organization before this survey (1999-2000). Given that all projects in the sample had already been completed by the time of the survey, it is most likely that all project in this sample used the conventional estimating method.
The RBE sample
The RBE sample data was based on data reported by Napier and Liu (2008). The sample contains 11 water infrastructure projects by the Sydney Water Corporation (SWC) and the Sydney Catchment Authority (SCA) in the state of NSW, Australia. All the estimates were performed by the same estimating team between 2003 and 2007. The use of the same estimating team ensures consistency in the implementation of RBE, thus reducing the possibility that differences in implementation could affect the findings. Projects with numerous and significant scope changes were excluded.
The projects using the RBE method included in this sample adopted two types of contracts—Design and Construct (D&C) and Alliance contract. Since risks are treated differently in D&C and Alliance types, the measure of estimation accuracy had to be adjusted to each project type. In summary, the accuracy in alliance projects is determined using either the total cost estimate (TCE) or budget curves, while the accuracy in D&C projects is evaluated using the budget curve. For details about the adjustments, please refer to Napier and Liu (2008).
Drawing from the literature on forecasting accuracy (Holden & Peel, 1988; Makridakis & Hibon, 1984; Fitzgerald & Akintoye, 1995), the cost estimation accuracy is measured in two dimensions—the estimation error and the degree of dispersion in the sample around the mean. The accuracy of the hybrid sample is compared with historical data. Further, the accuracy in the hybrid sample is contrasted with accuracies in the conventional and RBE samples, respectively, to explore potential relative differences in accuracy.
The first dimension of accuracy was measured as the percentage difference between the detailed estimate and the actual cost. This is a good indicator for the accuracy of cost estimation for a specific project. However, our interest here is to find out the accuracy of the hybrid approach as a method for cost estimation. A typical approach is to measure the degree of dispersion around the mean estimation error for projects using the hybrid approach (RTA, 2008; AGNSW, 2007; Holden & Peel, 1988; Makridakis & Hibon, 1984). In this study, the second dimension—the degree of dispersion in the sample around the mean—is measured by the standard deviation in the sample. The two dimensions need to be used in conjunction to measure accuracy of an estimating method. The first dimension measures the closeness of the estimate to the final actual cost and the second dimension measures the consistency of the estimation method.
The contrast of accuracies across the samples is conducted using the independent t-test procedure of SPSS, which simultaneously test the equality of means (using t-test for equality of means) and variances (using Levene's test for equality of variance). A significant test result (p<=0.05 for two-tailed tests) indicates the existence of statistically significant difference (a difference greater than zero).
To further aid the analysis, log-normal distribution curves of the frequency histogram of the estimation errors in each of the samples are overlaid in Figure 2 to visually demonstrate the contrast in accuracies across the two samples. Past studies have shown that log-normal distribution is appropriate for modeling cost estimation performance (Rothwell, 2005).
The results are presented in three steps. First, comparison of the hybrid accuracy with historical results and accuracies in the RBE and conventional samples are reported. Second, the implications for practice and theory development are discussed. Third, validity threats and limitations are discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn and further studies suggested.
Accuracy of the hybrid approach
Table 2 reports the mean and standard deviation of the hybrid sample. Compared to historical average mean of 34.7% and standard deviation of 37.8% (See Table 1), a mean of -9.71% and SD of 14.48% for the hybrid sample represents remarkable improvement.
The test results for equality of means and variances are presented in Table 3. It shows that the means of estimation errors in the hybrid and the conventional samples, respectively, are significantly different (p<=0.00). Considering the negative mean estimation error (under budget) in the hybrid sample and the positive mean estimation error in the conventional sample (-9.71% vs. 3.88%, See Table 2), the results suggest that the mean estimation error of using the hybrid approach is lower than that using the conventional contingency approach.
Table 3 further reports that the variances of estimation errors in the hybrid sample and the conventional samples, respectively, are not significantly different (F=2.97, n.s.).
On the relative accuracy between the hybrid and RBE approaches, the results in Table 3 suggest that the latter is more accurate. Table 3 shows that the means of estimation errors in the hybrid and the RBE samples, respectively, are significantly different (p<=0.05). The higher absolute mean estimation error in the hybrid sample (9.71%, See Table 2) supports the hypothesis. Further, Table 3 shows that the variances of estimation errors in the hybrid and the RBE samples, respectively, are significantly different (F=4.83, p<=0.03). Considering the variance of estimation error in the hybrid sample is higher than that in the RBE sample (See Table 2), the results indicate higher variance in the hybrid sample than in the RBE sample. Therefore, the results here suggest that the RBE approach could be more accurate than the hybrid approach.
Table 2. Descriptive Statistics for Estimation Errors in the Three Samples
Sample N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean
Estimation Errors Hybrid 36 -9.71* 14.48 2.41
Conventional 38 3.88 10.09 1.64
RBE 11 -3.49 5.95 1.79
* a negative value denotes under-budget while a positive figure indicates over-budget
Table 3. Test Results for the Equality of Means and Variances
Levene's Test for Equality of Variances t-test for Equality of Means
F Sig. t df Sig. (2-tailed) Mean Difference
Hybrid vs. RBE 4.83 0.03 2.07 40.78 0.05 6.22
Hybrid vs. Conventional 2.97 n.s. 4.66 62.17 0.00 13.59
The results reported above show that the hybrid approach adopted by the Authority represents significant improvement against historical averages on infrastructure projects. Comparison with the conventional contingency approach, respectively, shows that the hybrid approach can produce more conservative estimates, either by less amount over-budget or, more likely, under-budget than (and have similar dispersion around the mean estimation error with) the conventional contingency approach. In contrast, comparison with a small RBE sample provides the preliminary evidence that RBE can be more accurate than the hybrid approach.
Validity threats and future research directions
Scope creep and significant scope changes are typically not included in the original estimate but could have significant effects on the actual costs, thus affecting the accuracy. We have mitigated this risk by excluding projects with considerable scope change in the hybrid and the conventional samples. For the RBE sample, adjustments have been made to the costs to account for significant scope changes (Napier & Liu, 2008).
The small sample size in the RBE sample could lead to type II error, i.e. not being able to detect the existing differences in hypothesized relationships. The only hypothesis rejected relates to the difference in variance of estimation error in the two samples—the hybrid and the conventional sample. To rule out the possibility, the hypothesis needs to be further tested in future studies using larger size samples.
Finally, the hybrid sample only includes road and traffic projects conducted by one organization. Similarly, the RBE sample contains only water infrastructure projects. It thus poses a validity threat to the generalizability of the findings to non-road projects using similar hybrid or non-water projects using RBE or projects by organizations other than the Authority. The question of generalizability can only be answered by future studies examining accuracies of various methods in different types of projects. In particular, random sampling of different project types from a variety of organizations using a specific estimating approach should be strongly encouraged. Nevertheless, the results from this study provide preliminary insight on the relative accuracy among the three estimation approaches, which should be followed up by subsequent studies.
The findings contribute to the theory development by providing empirical evidence on the relative accuracy of the three methods in cost estimation. The findings largely support the view that there is estimation bias toward over-budgeting, which can be mitigated by taking the outside view. More importantly, modeling individual project cost components as statistical distributions (as in RBE) does appear to significantly improve the consistency of estimates. However, due to limitations in the randomness of the sample and the types of projects and organizations included, the findings need to be interpreted with caution and further validation on different types of projects by a variety of organizations is warranted.
It is important to note the differences in results from previous studies. In the two largest studies conducted by Flyvbjerg et al. (2005b) and Odeck (2004), the estimation errors between the detailed estimation and the actual cost have standard deviations of 30% and 29.2%, respectively, the lowest of published studies on infrastructure projects. In comparison, the hybrid sample exhibits a much narrower dispersion with a standard deviation of only 14.48%. It is not clear whether the difference in dispersion is due to factors unique to the organizations (e.g. the Authority) or due to the fact that the Flyvbjerg et al. (2005b) and Odeck (2004) samples may include a mixture of projects using different estimating approaches. Studies on the accuracy of specific estimation approaches rather than a mixture of approaches would be a more fruitful path in developing theories and practices for effective estimation.
Figure 2. The log-normal distribution curves of the hybrid, RBE, and the conventional methods
In contrast to the prevalence of optimism bias (Bruzelius et al., 2002; Flyvbjerg et al., 2005a), the effect of adding an uplift to estimates is the increased likelihood of being under-budget (75% of the projects in the sample are not over-budget). In other words, the result shows a bias toward being under-budget. Although under-budget is typically preferred to over-budget, large amount of under-runs or persistent under-budget could lead to lost opportunities that would otherwise have been undertaken if the estimate had been more accurate. Figure 2 shows that, supporting the findings, mean estimation error of the hybrid tends to be biased toward under-budget and has a wider dispersion compared to that of RBE. In contrast, RBE has the least dispersion of estimation error and produces the most accurate estimates. Further studies should investigate the contributing factors to hybrid's bias toward under-budget. For practitioners, continuous monitoring and fine-tuning of estimation procedures while understanding the under-budgeting possibility of hybrid approach is critical to ensure the effective implementation of the RCF approach.
Supporting the argument that RCF mitigates against optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation, this study finds that a hybrid approach, which blends components of RCF and the conventional contingency approach, produces estimation accuracy significantly better than historical results reported in literature. Comparison with a conventional projects sample provides further support for the validity of the hybrid approach, which shows the hybrid approach is more accurate than the conventional contingency approach in that the hybrid approach tends to produce estimates that are more likely to lead to under-budget rather than over-budget. However, the dispersion around the mean estimation error of using the hybrid approach is similar to that using the conventional contingency approach.
The comparison with the RBE sample suggests that the RBE approach could be more accurate— closer to the mean estimate and narrow dispersion. This finding is consistent with the view that detailed modeling of individual components produces more accurate overall estimation than either ignoring distributional information (as in conventional approach) or simply modeling the distribution of overall project cost (as in RCF).
The finding also highlights the tendency of the hybrid approach to be overestimated. It has important implications for both practice and future research.
Li Liu, PhD, M.Tax, MBA, BE
Dr. Liu is currently a senior lecturer in project management at the University of Sydney. He has a doctorate degree from the Australian Graduate School of Management (AGSM). He also has a master's in Taxation (Usyd), a MBA (AIT) and a BE (NUTD).
Dr. Liu has one decade of working experience in systems engineering, project management, business research, management consulting, and managing an E-com company. His research interests include management of infrastructure projects, enterprise-level project management, information technology/information systems project management, organizational control theory, programme/portfolio management, and project/programme governance.
The courses he has taught include Managing Project-Oriented Organization, Project Portfolio and Programme Management, Strategic Project Management, Project Formulation, IT project management, and Business Information Systems.
He is published in Institute of Electronics and Electrical Engineers (IEEE) Transactions on Engineering Management, Project Management Journal, Journal of Information Technology (JIT), Construction Management & Economics, and other international Journals, Institut Européen d'Administration des Affaires (INSEAD), and a number of international conferences including PMI Research Conference and International Conference for Information Systems (ICIS). He served as a reviewer for a number of journals and conferences including Management Information Systems Quarterly (MISQ), JIT, ICIS, ECIS and PMI Research Conference. He also served as an associate editor for ICIS'09. Currently, he serves on the editorial board of JIT.
George Wehbe, BE, BCom
George Wehbe is a graduate from the University of Sydney and holds a Bachelor of Engineering (Project Engineering Management) with 1st Class Honours and a Bachelor of Commerce (Business Information Systems). His honours thesis looked into the effect of different risk quantifications methods on the accuracy of cost estimates in large infrastructure projects in an Australian State. Mr. Wehbe currently works as a Business and Systems Development Manager within his own Information Technology (IT) company and employs more than 20 staff. He has interests in IT, Business Development, Cost Engineering, Business System Analysis, and Development.
Jonathan Sisovic, BE, BSc
Jonathan Sisovic graduated from the University of Sydney with a Bachelor of Engineering (Civil) (Hons) and Bachelor of Science in Physics. His thesis topic looked at the cost estimation practices of the construction industry and their effectiveness. Mr. Sisovic currently works as a Project Engineer for an infrastructure construction company, Abergeldie Complex Infrastructure. His interests include project management, cycling, 60s music, and astronomy. He currently resides in Sydney, Australia.
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