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The State of Influencer Marketing: What You Need to Know for 2017
Marketing isn't the same as it was a decade ago. The connections forged by the internet mean that marketers often rely on others, such as influencers, in order to shape opinions and create communities. However, influencers don't ensure the success of influencer marketing.
In this episode of the Marketing Cloudcast, Brian Solis shares his experiences with and outlook for influencer marketing. Solis, an analyst and author, uncovers what many marketers know: Not all influencers are equal. He also shares the questions that marketers should ask their influencers as they shape a marketing campaign.

(Transcription)
Welcome to the Marketing Cloudcast. It's the podcast where marketing leaders shoot straight about key trends, technologies, and topics in marketing today. And now, straight from the Salesforce Marketing Cloud, it's your co-hosts, Heike Young and Joel Book.
Heike Young (HY): Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of the Marketing Cloudcast, the marketing podcast from Salesforce. I am Heike Young, and I co-host this podcast with my estimable colleague here at Salesforce, Joel Book. In every episode of this podcast, we bring you an in-depth interview with a marketing leader, somebody who really helps us think about marketing in new ways. Today's guest definitely fits in that category. He is a popular speaker and author, and now he is bringing his research and insights to the topic of influencer marketing. Joel, set the stage for us here today.
Joel Book (JB): Well, thanks very much, Heike. Hello, everybody. Heike, great to be back with you again. Well, today, our special repeat guest — that's right, you heard me — our special guest today is Brian Solis of Altimeter Group. Brian joined us on a previous episode of the Marketing Cloudcast which, thanks to all of you, was one of our highest-rated podcasts, which is one of the reasons why we invited Brian back.
For those of you who may not be familiar with Brian, he serves as principal analyst at the Altimeter Group. He's a very, very well-read individual, meaning that he's an award-winning author. In fact, when Heike and I interviewed Brian previously, he had just released his book, X: The Experience When Business Meets Design, which has become a best seller. He's a very popular keynote speaker. So for those of you who ever have an opportunity to be in the presence of Brian at an event, do not miss it. Get a front row seat because he comes with plenty of content that is useful and very, very practical. So, without further ado, Brian, welcome back to the Marketing Cloudcast.
Brian Solis (BS): Well, it's awesome to be back, and I just want to start by saying thank you. I really appreciated being on this show as X was launching because you helped me bring an important story to some important people. And it was a really great show. So thank you for having me on then and for having me on again.
The State of Influencer Marketing in 2017
JB: Well, it's our pleasure. Our aim here at the podcast is to really try to put a spotlight on those individuals that are opinion shapers, who are influencers in the industry, the art and science of digital marketing. In fact, Brian, that's a lot of what Heike and I want to speak with you about today because you are now out with new research about influencer marketing. And so what we'd like to do in our time with you today is really kind of go as deep on that topic as we can. Because this is something that a lot of the people that listen to the Marketing Cloudcast have asked us to put more emphasis on. So I guess the first question, just to kind of set the table for our discussion today: Give us your insight or overview, Brian, as to kind of the state of the state of influencer marketing today. Where is it at, and more importantly, where are we headed?
BS: All right. Well, let's see, I'll probably then answer that in the next 65 or 70 minutes if you have enough time [laughter].
JB: Bullet points, Brian [laughter].
BS: In 2012, I published a report called "The Rise of Digital Influence," which, all humility aside, I hope you read. You can go onto SlideShare and download it right now for free. It's just "The Rise of Digital Influence," and use my name in the search bar. It was published not as a way to talk about influencer marketing per se, but to help marketers understand what influence actually is and how it works, and bringing in things like social capital, and how relationships actually work online, and how people earn and spend that social capital by what they say and what they do. And it was basically a humanities-based research report that showed us the science of it, so that smart marketers or progressive marketers could really then see what the fundamentals are or the building blocks are to run an effective influencer marketing campaign.
So to your point about where we are, and where we're going, or what the state of influencer marketing is, I think that, unfortunately, we think about influencer marketing the same way we think about old-school public relations. And I mean that lovingly, but that is exactly what we have to process in order to think about how to do this right. We look at who are the influencers, and then we spam them, or pitch them, or broadcast them as ways of just trying to get them to help tell our story, when that's not how influence works. And that's certainly not why someone became an influencer. And it's certainly not the way that they want to work simply because that's the way you work, or that's the way your clients think about this. And there's a lot of education that I think we need to consider here, and this is why some of the best people in the game aren't actually talking about what they do right. They're not actually publishing case studies because this is a competitive advantage for them.
Building an Effective Influencer
JB: Well, that really spurs another question because I get asked this question a lot, Brian, and that is on the topic of influencers. The question is what types of individuals really are your most effective influencers? Example: I've had some customers here at Salesforce come up to me and say, "Well, quite frankly, Joel, my best influencers are our customers, those that are really passionate about the brand." I've had other individuals say, "What works well for us is having someone like a Brian Solis, who is really well-respected in the industry, really well-versed in technology, and specifically the application of technology for digital marketing. If we could get Brian to speak about what we're doing, we would consider that a home run." What's your take on that? Because I think brands struggle with this when they think about formulating an influencer marketing strategy. What types of individuals should they really be courting, if you will, or really kind of bringing them in closer to the brand to really leverage their influence?
BS: Such a great question. It's also one of the most important questions that I don't think people really think about when they're putting together their influencer marketing campaigns. And I think for the most part this is why — it's true for influencer marketing as much as it is true for basically everything that companies try to do with technology, whether it's customer service or sales. It's that we just try to scale existing philosophies and processes.
So in this regard, we lean too much on software. Tell me who my influencers are if I talk about cloud computing, or if my client is in cloud computing, or what have you. And so you get all these names, and then you might even sort them by reach. For example, there was one report that was flying around recently about all of the influencers about so-and-so technology. I don't want to give it away too much because I don't want to offend anybody, but my name was on the list. And quite honestly, I took a look at it just because I wanted to see, "Well, is this something that's flattering to me, or is this something that's demonstrating the problems that we have in the influencer marketing world?" And I felt it was the latter. It had me somewhere on the list, had ranked me on that list based on these ideas of what I had called the three pillars of influence: reach, resonance, and relevance. And it was completely wrong, and simply because it was based on algorithms. And so a marketer gets a report like that, and suddenly, that's what they're going to use as sort of their primary mechanism for outreach. "Here are all the people that I need to recognize." But most don't take the actual time to go and look at these individuals, what they talk about on each of the different accounts, who they are, what it might take to engage them — basically good old-fashioned relationship building — using technology as an enabler rather than as a crutch.
The Three R's of Influencer Marketing
BS: And unfortunately, we have to think more about what those three pillars mean. So I'll say them again. It's reach, resonance, and relevance. And when we, as marketers, need to think about what our campaign is supposed to do, I think influencer marketing should start with the outcome. Do we need to raise awareness for the company? Do we need to talk about problems and challenges with the industry of which then we could find ways to solve in productive and useful ways? Are there people who have a greater reach because they're more popular? Or are there people who have less reach but are more authoritative, giving us a different type of influence? And what would our engagement look like based on the relevance of who's following them and what their communities deem valuable?
And I think the more we start thinking like this, the more we can understand. For example, a question to ask is, "How would my engagement with this particular influence help their influence increase within their community, or help their influence accelerate or expand based on our partnership?" So asking, "Where can I add value?" instead of, "How can they help me?"
And influencer marketing, unfortunately, is very selfish in that regard, in that that's how we usually start. Just get all the names, get all of the people and how far we can reach, and then we go beyond that in making all kinds of other mistakes. I'm sure that we'll get to in the conversation. But it really has to start with, "Who am I trying to reach? What's their relationship with their community? And how can I add value to that, while also finding a way to add value to my efforts?" And then start to develop a more effective strategy. You don't always have to reach out for the people that have the biggest number of followers, nor do you have to reach out to the people that simply have an online presence and talk about your subjects. You have to think more strategically about, "What is this about? What are we trying to do? What's the message we want to convey, and how do we build these relationships beyond the now?"
A More Thoughtful Approach to Influencer Marketing
HY: Brian, inside of the "Influencer Marketing Manifesto," the name of this report, you have the data organized in a really cool and unique way, which I actually really liked. You have a lot of different charts about how marketers are engaging in this and sort of the state of the state, like Joel said, of influencer marketing. Then you also have a lot of charts and data about how the influencers themselves are experiencing this and influencer marketing from their perspective. Why did you set up the report like that?
BS: Well, for a couple reasons. One is, as an analyst, I study this stuff. But at the same time, I've been on social media for… I have since the beginning of all of this stuff and have built quite a notable community across multiple platforms. And I can't tell you how often I'm insulted by the — and please, as marketers, don't take this the wrong way, you can always reach out to me, just be thoughtful about it — but in terms of being insulted, as if, "Hey. We see you have this incredible audience. We want your help in terms of it being an influencer marketing program we're running. We're willing to pay you 0.05 cents for every impression that you give us for sending this tweet," not even really thinking about what this is about. They're more thinking about reach, or presence, or mentions, so that they could show their client, "Look, we increased your impressions and visibility by X percent simply by working with these influencers." So I wanted to give their perspective to marketers, so that they can see that it's not just about what you're trying to do. It's also about how they want to work. If, in any case, you care [laughter] about what influencers think and how they operate. That was the premise for it.
JB: Well, and I mean, they really should care, right? Because these people, not only are they humans and should they be treated equitably and fairly. They're not just a face on a report that an algorithm spit out. But also, I mean, they wield a lot of influence, right? And so if you piss them off, in a sense, they wield some influence in your target community. And it probably should be avoided. Can you talk to us a little bit about — for somebody listening to this, and they're like, "Well, my product, I just don't really know that we have influencers in this area. I can't really think of anyone." Either they're thinking, maybe, that they're not sure that there are influencers in that community, or the only influencers they can think of are celebrities. And they don't have the budget for a celebrity endorsement. What would you say to folks like that, in marketing, who are listening?
BS: One of the other reasons why I wanted to write this report is that the influencer marketers, I think, confuse popularity and authority. They're different types of ways to influence markets. And what I tried to say is, without being a manipulator, just understanding, what does influence even mean?
Understanding that really it's about... the textbook definition of influence is the ability to cause effect or change behavior. So thinking with purpose and authenticity, that if one of the goals is to raise awareness of the company among a digital set of customers or users, you have to sort of capture what the state of that is, so that you can understand how to work with influencers in ways that positively benefit them and you. And please, please read "The Rise of Digital Influence," because it definitely explains all of this.
But with popularity, I used in that particular report, the rise of those hoverboards that were so popular, I think last year or the year before that. And how it all started with — I can't remember off the top of my head, but it was either Kylie or Kendall Jenner — and showing what popularity looks like in the mainstream so that we can start to draw parallels to what we're trying to do. Do I need to reach somebody who has one million followers simply because they have that, or do I need to reach the people who actually impact the worlds and the decisions of the people who follow them?
So for example, I talk a lot about the future of technology, or innovation, or culture, or business transformation, and so I've built a community that isn't one massive audience of people who follow me for everything and anything that I say. My audience is comprised of people who are interested in business transformation, who might also be interested in culture, and there's some overlap. But by understanding my relationship with those individuals around specific topics, and then doing your homework around why I built that presence and how to add value to that presence, then we can start to work together in a productive and collaborative way. But the way we think about it is, we confuse authority and popularity by saying, "Okay. I need you to reach all your followers, and that's how we're going to measure success, by the impressions of all of your followers." And not actually taking the time to think about, "Wow, this is what makes this particular person influential on this particular topic, and I need to understand when I need to play the popularity card and when I need to play the authority card."
The Types of Influencers
JB: Brian, do you think brands tend to overlook customers when it comes to influencer marketing? I know I touched on this in an earlier question when we talked about different types of influencers. You're a professional in the industry at Altimeter. You're very well respected. But, for example, one of the best examples I have seen in recent years of a brand really leveraging the voice of its customers is Disney. And I remember a few years ago listening to an executive from Disney talk about how influential moms have become, many of whom were blogging about their recent trip to Disney World and offering advice to their followers on their blog about how to really prepare, to get the maximum value out of your trip to Disney World in Orlando.
Well, Disney listened. They monitored that. Today, if you go to the Disney site, you actually see a section on the site called the Moms Panel, where there are now, oh golly, I think close to 30 men and women who are really experts on Disney World. They don't work for Disney, but they have been. They are repeat visitors, and now what Disney does is that they allow people like you and I to submit a question on the website to the Moms Panel. And then one of them picks it up and responds. And then in turn, Disney then continues the dialogue with that individual, inviting them to opt in to email, inviting them to download the My Disney Experience app. And then it goes from there. And I've talked to several other people who are friends of ours that have been to that Moms Panel, posted questions, and have talked about just how helpful it was. Not that these people are necessarily recognized authorities, it's just that they have tremendous passion for the Disney brand and want to help others have a great experience when they go there. So back to the question, do you think sometimes brands underestimate the power of their own customers?
BS: They underestimate and they overestimate at the same time. I think Disney is a great example because they did recognize early on the power of the connected mom in the space, right? Because it's easy to assume that, "Well, of course all moms are going to think about Disneyland or Disney World. We've already got them, so why should we engage with them?" Well, it turns out, as Disney is probably an extreme example, there's almost a religious-like following for those types of connected influencers who, not just moms, but also people who talk about the secrets or the behind-the-scenes stories of Disney in their channels, of which is amazing of all the things you just never knew and makes it all the more exciting to want to visit the parks, or see the movies, what have you. So yes, I think Disney has early on figured that out.
I don't know that Disney talks about this publicly, but I mean, those moms, some of them will do this because they're passionate about Disney. But if you're going to bring them into an official program, then if you ask the influencers, whether it's Disney or anybody else, then they don't want to just do this for free. I mean, to some extent, they will because of the passion, but there has to be a formal program established around this, much like you would if you're going to pay Kendall Jenner to talk about your products or Kim Kardashian to talk about your products.
People aren't just sitting there waiting and hoping you're going to reach out to them to talk about you. If this is going to be an official program, you have to think about the value for them, their community, and also for you, and then put together a program that's realistic and not something that is either expecting them to do it for free since they've talked about your brand in the past, or that they could theoretically talk about your brand, but putting value around this.
Now, look, I know that some people are going to hear that and say "Yes, yes, yes. We've tried to make that case in the past. We get it. But our brands, our clients, our executives don't get it. And so they don't want to fund it." Well, that's all on us. We can't break new ground if we can't show the promise of what this can do to us. And we have to be able to compare that to the things that they value today, whether it's traditional advertising, whether it's sales, conversions, impressions, whatever they value today, you have to do the work to be able to reverse engineer, "Well, what does having a panel of Disney moms mean? What does having a blog, or relations program, or social media relations program for Disney actually look like mean? How are we measuring it differently? How are we comparing it to what we've done in the past, and how is it better?" So we have to demonstrate that value up front.
The Scope of Influence
JB: Well, and that leads into my next question, and that is: Whose job is that to really run the influencer marketing program for a brand?
BS: Whoa. Wow. Well, the research shows that it's all over the place. The highest ranking, at just under 30 per cent, was social marketing, but then it went to marcom. Then there was even influencer marketing groups, digital marketing, content marketing, PR. It just runs the gambit.
JB: So the highest percentage was social at 30 per cent. I mean, yeah, that's really not that high. It's not like this is a clear delineation, like this is the department where it lives. It's still kind of all over the place. And I feel like if there's somebody in an organization who's really passionate about developing this strategy and these goals like you're talking about, there's still a lot of opportunity to take this and run with it.
BS: Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. And more so than that it's... the only word I can think about is almost embarrassing in that it's not just who is running the program. It's who is running a program. So that means that there could be multiple groups within the organization today that are stepping on [laughter] each other's toes and maybe even reaching out to the same people differently. This has happened to me as well, quite recently. And then embarrassingly, they have to either apologize, or in many cases, if they're called on it, they just disappear.
JB: Yeah, that's crazy. Okay. So social media. It's kind of like the early days of social, right? Where it was like, "Oh, does PR own this? Does marketing own this?" So there's a few different groups, and you're seeing social begin to take over, possibly, some of this influencer marketing. But other departments are still very involved. What do you see kind of as you're looking at the future, as departments are figuring out, "Alright. How can we all collaborate on this, make sure that we are going to influencers with the right asks and the right way?" What are some of your key concerns or maybe any guidance that you would offer as to the future of influencer marketing? And what are some of your tips for just doing this in the right way and with the right goals in mind?
BS: It's such a big question, and it's the right question to ask. If you look at one of the biggest problems that influencers will say today that exists is, one, is that you don't even really know me or my work. And two, you're not valuing me in our relationship to work together. So one of the biggest challenges that marketers will say in any influencer program, aside from ROI, is that marketers want to have control over the messaging. And one of the biggest problems that influencers will say exists in influencer marketing is that they don't have control over what they say. And it's absolutely absurd in that when someone like an influencer says, "I want to be valued for my role in the relationship, but part of my..." and the number one thing that they say is how they built their influence is being transparent and genuine to their community. So the fact that a brand or an influence marketer is trying to put words into their mouth is just not how any of this works.
So I could tell you that I was personally invited — actually, this happens all the time. I'm invited to attend events where I am supposed to be sort of like this ambassador for that particular event. And I'm given all kinds of input to what they're working on, access to executives, and then I'm supposed to run what I'm going to say by them before I publish it. The same is true for products, and that's not genuine. I understand that that's a fear that most brands have that they don't want to release their brand to the communities. But that's the whole purpose of digital influence is that people follow other people because they want to get the peer-to-peer perspective on this. And that is also counterintuitive to how a lot of marketers have worked.
So I think that understanding each influencer, and why they're brought in, and how to leverage the message, and the work, and the visibility, that's going to be both advantageous to the influencer, also to the community, and then also to the brand. This is why there's a lot of opportunity for innovation here because we have a chance to reimagine strategy, to rethink outcomes and metrics, and then also to value it differently, so that it shows that it's not just something that's a new tool using old-hat approaches. It's an opportunity to actually build a much more influential and valuable community for the brand through the voices and relationships of other people by us plugging into it in a meaningful way.
JB: Well, and I think the magic word that you mentioned there, Brian, is community. Because one of the things we see at Salesforce is more brands that are now starting up an actual portal, many of whom are using our Community Cloud product for that. Basically, because they want to create a resource center for customers, or for partners, or for developers, whatever the case might be, many of whom will end up being influencers. And I think that's one of the reasons, back to your point, why influencer marketing is everybody's business. But it absolutely is emerging as an increasingly powerful part of the overall mix.
Folks, you're listening to Brian Solis today here at the Marketing Cloudcast. Brian is principal analyst at the Altimeter Group. He is also the author of a great report that you need to get your hands on. It's titled "The Influencer Marketing Manifesto: Why The Future of Influencer Marketing Starts With People And Relationships Not Popularity." Highly recommend it.
More Final Five
HY: That's right. Well, because Brian is a repeat guest, and we've already done our original final five questions with him, we have devised a few new questions for him today to keep this interesting and to get to know him a little bit better. So Brian, we like to do these final five just rapid-fire style and just really give folks some insight into who you are. And we know many of them probably follow you on social media, but this is their chance to get to know you a little bit in a different way. So Brian, we're going to kick it off with this. What emoji would you say best describes you?
BS: It's definitely either the smiley face or the champagne bottle — or both.
JB: Ooh [laughter], I like that, a combination emoji. All right.
HY: That's great. Brian, question number two. Are you going to wear the new Snapchat spectacles?
BS: I'm not going to lie. I'm going to buy those, and I'm going to try them out. I'm a big drone flier, so I love to get alternative perspectives and stitch that stuff together. So first-person perspective is very interesting. I once wore Google Glass on a fashion runway, so that I could capture what that looked like from my perspective and had a lot of fun with it. I don't know that I'll keep them, and I do have a long list of people who want them after I try them.
JB: Awesome.
HY: All right. Brian, I love your stories. You're a man of the world. I like that story about walking down the runway and showing us your perspective, something most of us will never see. What is your favorite place to get some work done, Brian?
BS: I'm not going to lie. I think every book I've ever written is at least partially, if not significantly, written in French cafes with a glass of champagne.
JB: Well, now that's original. I like that very much [laughter].
HY: He just gets classier by the minute, doesn't he?
JB: He does.
BS: Well, I'll tell you that I have a lot of... I was a big fan of Ernest Hemingway and that lost generation. And I tried to follow all of those places that they hung out and did some writing, and will always do writing in those cafes and...
HY: That's interesting because it is Hemingway. That was exactly the image, Brian, that I was envisioning when you mentioned that. That's fantastic. Here's question…
BS: Midnight in Paris. One of my favorite movies.
HY: It's a great movie.
BS: Exactly.
HY: It is. Question number four, what is your number one piece of career advice, Brian?
BS: Step away from the world as you know it. I think that there's much that we need to learn, and there's also much that we need to unlearn. And that unlearning is I think where we can realize some of the greatest opportunities for innovation. I talk about this idea of iteration versus innovation. Iteration being doing the same things better, and innovation is doing new things that unlock new value. And I tend to think that when we learn new things, we put them in the context of the past, how we measure success, how people measure our success. But I think that taking a step back and recognizing things that... what if you had to re-invent the opportunity for business product development, customer experience, marketing? So many things could be done differently and better, that you could be both iterative, but at the same time, you could also unlock innovation by having a fresh perspective.
JB: Good advice.
HY: All right, Brian. It's our last question for you today, sadly. I wish that we could have some more time with you. But it's our second episode with you, so I feel like a third one might be in the cards. Thanks for your time. You've talked a lot about innovation and the future of marketing. And clearly, you've got a real handle and a real data-centric understanding of what's going on in the world of marketing today. So if you had to pick just one word to sum up the state of our industry here in marketing, what would that word be?
BS: Dated [laughter].
HY: Dated. And why would you choose that?
BS: I think because a lot of the principles that we're using in every aspect of business, not just marketing, it's all based on premises that are old and with old philosophies on who the customer is. It's still based a lot on command and control, and buying perception, and buying impressions. When if anything that we've learned from social media, for better or for worse, is that it gave people a voice, and with that voice came new communities, and new elements of information, and how it's distributed, and also influence. And I think we have to update everything from our philosophies and perspectives to metrics to come up with strategies that are going to be relevant in this new world.
HY: That's a unique response.
HY: Yeah. One of marketing's most unique figures, and I love that response, Brian. And if folks want to go ahead and download the "Influencer Marketing Manifesto," how do you suggest they do that?
BS: I would just google "Influencer Marketing Manifesto" and my name, and it'll come right up. And I would highly recommend though, that before or after you read that, that you also read "The Rise of Digital Influence."
HY: Brian, thank you so much for joining us. It was great to have you back on the show.
BS: Well, oh my gosh, I enjoyed every moment again.
HY: Well, we love having you, Brian, and thanks to everybody for listening. And if you enjoyed this particular episode, whether you're listening on SoundCloud or iTunes, or somewhere else, please make sure that you rate us. Go ahead and rate us over on iTunes. You can also subscribe there at sforce.co/cloudcast. You can also search for the "Marketing Cloudcast" on Google Play Music or Stitcher. We're available wherever you like to listen to podcasts. Joel and I look forward to bring you another episode of the Marketing Cloudcast very soon.
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In the north, the climate is largely temperate with an almost constant wind drying the air along the Rhône corridor. In summer it brings cool temperatures, while in winter it can be bitingly cold. When blowing from the south, it can often be followed by storms.
The Mediterranean influence is also apparent in the high levels of sunshine (around 2,400 hours per year) coupled with hot, dry summers. Winters are cold, but not excessively so; a semi-continental type climate. Rainfall is moderate, with most occurring at the end of summer, called the Cevenol effect.
The vineyards are vast, incorporating a fairly wide variety of soils. The most significant area, to the south and east of Tain-l'Hermitage, is made up of thick strata of rounded pebbles stemming from several different ice ages, mixed with red clay forming a relatively flat landscape of plateaus and terraces (Les Chassis, Les Sept Chemins etc). To the north west, we find some fairly steep hillsides, and towards Larnage and Crozes-Hermitage, a stony terrace with loess or kaolinitic black sand. The areas to the north (Erôme, Serves and Gervans) lie on granite soils also covered with loess.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
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Inicio / Influence and image of Spain / China Discovers Public Diplomacy
Jaime Otero
// Posted on 01 Jun 2007
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China's foreign policy has acquired more visibility and capacity for initiative in recent years, adapting both to the needs of its economic boom and the changing circumstances of international society. Besides playing a greater role in world affairs through the more discrete channels of inter-governmental diplomacy, China has undertaken a series of activities with an eye to world public opinion, renewing or strengthening existing tools and creating others that are new. Among the former, official visits have multiplied –with China either making or receiving them– and the country has intensified and modernised its use of the news media. Highlights among the new thrusts include hosting major international events (the Shanghai Universal Exposition and the Olympic Games) and the implementation of an assertive policy of spreading China's language and culture on the international stage.
China Takes the Initiative
As with other aspects of China's modernisation, one can discern in its new diplomacy elements borrowed from other countries and these, combined with the circumstances of China itself, make for an original model. One unique characteristic of the Chinese model of public diplomacy rests in the fact that it has developed from a tradition of political propaganda typical of a single-party regime, as observed by Ingrid d'Hooghe. Unlike the Western systems from which it takes inspiration, the Chinese model stems from strong centralised power and works through channels tightly controlled by the authorities, leaving a very thin margin for initiative by other parties. This feature goes a long way towards explaining the Chinese system's efficiency, but at the same time raises questions about its weaknesses.
Behind the new Chinese diplomacy we find in the first place a new need to manage the country's growing interdependence with the outside world. China has undergone a profound transformation in the past 30 years as a result of successive waves of reforms guided by a pragmatic combination of political continuity and free-market measures. Thanks to its demographic weight and the stunning growth of its economy, which would not have been possible without a progressive opening to the outside world, China is destined to play a leading role on the international stage. China is now the world's fourth-largest economy and its third biggest buyer of oil. It holds more foreign currency than any other country, with much of it invested in the US, and is one of the planet's top recipients of direct foreign investment.
Chinese society is less and less an impenetrable world anchored in its millenary past or tied up in a revolutionary project. Contacts with the outside world are increasing in every realm of human activity. In 2005 Beijing airport rose from 20th to 14th place in the world ranking of passenger traffic. That same year China received 46 million visits (making it fourth in the world in that category), not counting trips to Macao and Hong Kong, and was seventh in the world in the amount its people spent overseas as tourists. China has surpassed the US in the number of cable TV subscribers and telephone handsets. Only in the US are there more Internet users than in China, although Web penetration is still far from reaching levels seen in industrialised countries. The literacy rate among adults, although not evenly distributed, is around 90%. School attendance is close to 99% and the number of students enrolled in upper level education exceeded 17 million in 2006. More children are learning English in China than in the US. At least 117,000 Chinese young people studied abroad in 2003; more than 700,000 did so from 1978-2003, according to the Chinese Education Ministry, most of them studying in Europe and the US. And the number of foreign students in China rose from 30,000 in 1995 to more than 100,000 in 2004, most of them from other Asian countries.
By joining the process of economic globalisation, China has become more dependent on the outside world, and has more and more influence on the global economy. It needs to assure itself supplies of energy and raw materials, consolidate and diversify markets for its manufactured goods and acquire more knowledge and technology to give greater added-value to its products. As a result, its foreign policy is more open to taking part in world affairs through China's joining international organisations, participating in peacekeeping missions and increasing development aid. And with greater and greater efficiency, it is making these policies known to world public opinion. China's current generation of leaders, unlike the preceding one, makes many official visits abroad. Trips by President Hu Jintao, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and other ministers and senior officials to Europe, Africa and Latin America, their visits to China's main partners (Australia, India, the US, Russia and Japan) and their presence in various forums of the industrialised world combine all these goals with the expression of public messages of friendship and cooperation.
The Path of Peaceful Development
Secondly, China's new public diplomacy is guided by the need to project a friendly and attractive image on the world stage, one that dispels possible fears of a threatening hegemony. In the broad international debate on the rise of China, the 'threat theory' predicts that the expansive rise of the recently awakened Asian giant will inevitably lead to confrontation with its neighbours and even conflicts on a larger scale, as was the case with other emerging powers that lacked sufficient lebensraum in the past. In response to this position, there has emerged in China the theory of the peaceful 'rise' or 'development', the main goal of which is to lift most of China's population out of poverty by taking part in economic globalisation and maintaining relations of cooperation and friendship with the rest of the world. China argues that its development depends on a peaceful environment and is linked to the development of the rest of the world in a win-win arrangement. China insists it does not seek domination or hegemony, bur rather the 'building of a harmonious world'.
So far the thesis of the 'peaceful rise' has for the most part been in sync with the form and content of Chinese foreign policy. China has defused potential regional conflicts and backed multilateralism on the world stage, allowing its international image to benefit from the damage the US has suffered because of its policy in the Middle East. It has assured itself the supplies it needs through diplomatic channels and averted pressure and confrontation in the battle for international markets. But in China's peaceful path towards becoming a major power, many inside and outside the country seem to think China needs greater tools for gaining prestige and influence –in other words, more power of seduction–. Joseph Nye has stated that China, like India, has adopted 'a foreign policy that made it more attractive in the eyes of others. But so far neither of these two countries has achieved a prominent position in the indices of soft power resources held by the United States, Europe and Japan. Although culture provides a degree of soft power, internal policies and values limit it, especially in China, where the Communist Party fears granting intellectual freedom and resists outside influences' ('La cultura asiática seduce', Clarín, 23/XI/2005).
According to some tools for measuring countries' global images, such as the Anholt Nation Brand Index, China's international reputation has recently improved. Still, a recent report by the Foreign Policy Center described China's image problem as an 'emergency', and called this China's main strategic threat. The study pointed out what it called a strong contrast between the Chinese people's image of themselves and how they are seen from abroad. The report said there is also a large and 'dangerous' gap between this image from abroad and the reality of the recent achievements and the transformation of Chinese society. Certainly there are concerns over the rise of China that might be eased with better knowledge of its progress, values and culture. But to reduce contradictions between the Chinese development model and its relations with the rest of the world to a mere question of image would be an incomplete analysis.
China's rise causes contradictory perceptions and real worries abroad. Along with the positive expectations that it triggers as a huge market and land of new opportunities, its growth model also raises fears of plant relocations and job losses in the rest of the world. The purchasing power of the Chinese economy fuels growth in other regions, but at the same time its hunger for raw materials raises worries about price increases and possible shortages. There are jitters over the environmental repercussions of unbridled growth and the possible social and political consequences of wealth spread unevenly. Talk of 'harmonious socialism' clashes with travellers' accounts of frenzied buying by consumers, unchecked real estate development and fabulous fortunes. China's policy of internationalising its companies, which has culminated in attempts to buy major foreign firms, has at times run into a wall of opposition from western financial authorities. China's efforts to invest in R+D and its progress in education and science are well known, but a record of violating copyright and industrial patents continues to drag down the image of Chinese manufacturers.
Nor is China's foreign policy free of contradictions. China's traditional position as a leader of the developing world stands in sharp contrast to its fervent defence of economic globalisation. Its calls for peaceful coexistence do not sit well with the hefty investments China has made in modernising its armed forces. China's protection of the government of Sudan jeopardises its image as it prepares to host the Olympic Games ('Darfour collides with Olympics, and China yields', NYT, 13/I/2007). On the domestic front, China's economic success has not brought about significant political reforms. The single-party regime remains in force, even as the public sector's role in the economy wanes. After the events of Tiananmen Square and the ebb of the timid process of change unleashed by the reforms of the 1980s, only very slowly are mechanisms of social control being eased, even as the new leadership shows a greater sensitivity to social imbalances stemming from strong economic growth. International scrutiny continues to turn up grave deficiencies in China's human rights record, and demonstrations by world famous figures on Tibet continue to challenge China's treatment of its regional minorities (Richard Gere, 'Railroad to perdition', NYT, 15/VII/2006).
From Flyers to the Internet
China maintains a monopoly over its news media and makes a great effort to control information flowing from the country to the rest of the world. It also works hard to keep most of its population oblivious to certain kinds of news content from abroad. The statistics that China makes available are incomplete and not readily accessible. There are hardly any institutions that publish reports or analyses with international scope that are critical or of an alternative nature. Except in controlled settings like tourist complexes, it is impossible to see foreign television channels freely or read the foreign press. China is said to employ tens of thousands of 'cyberpolice' who monitor the Internet with the goal of blocking engine-searches for certain expressions or access to specific web sites.
Still, there is no doubt that despite government censorship, the extraordinary development of TICsin China is creating conditions for unprecedented development of free information and debate. A visit to government web sites in China, which are available in several languages, gives an impression of modernity and independence, and even of changing customs and freedom of opinion. China has been abandoning old forms of propaganda and psychological warfare. Long gone are the days of flyers being rained down on Taiwan, or the export of revolution to other continents. The main organs of the Chinese government, including embassies, have Internet pages in English and other languages (www.china.org.cn boasts no fewer than 10, including Esperanto). Government-controlled media do not shy from touchy subjects and explain progress in sensitive subject areas, although they always refer to government White Papers.
The Xinhuanews agency and the People's Daily, the organ of the Chinese Communist Party, offer information in seven languages, including a simplified version of Chinese. The China Daily, which is billed as the 'only national newspaper in English', was created in 1981 and has a daily circulation of 200,000, a third of the total being distributed in more than 150 countries. It oversees other publications and supplements in English such as the local papers China Daily Hong Kong Edition, Shanghai Star and Beijing Weekend. In Hong Kong, the press seems to be under less rigid controls. The main television network, CCTV, has had a 24-hour channel in English since 2002, with 45 million subscribers around the world. Radio China International, established in 1941, transmits 211 hours of programming per day in 38 foreign languages, four dialects of Chinese and in putonghua (Mandarin, the official language of China).
The communications sector is still monopolised by the State, and with the partial exception of Hong Kong and other enclaves with more international exposure, radio and television stations are still subjected to strict restrictions on content, as are the foreign companies that since 2005 have been authorised to broadcast via cable in some areas. Self-censorship is a toll that even the Rolling Stones had to pay, dropping some songs from their repertoire in the first concert they gave in China, in Shanghai in 2006. Meanwhile, penetration of foreign entertainment programmes is more and more intense thanks to agreements with local corporations such as the Shanghai Media Group and Hunan TV (NYT, 28/XI/2005, 16/I/2006), which are state owned but have a clearly commercial management style (the limits between state owned and private property are seeming more and more diffuse these days). Foreign programmes also reach Chinese receivers through an undetermined number of illegal satellite dishes. Although imports of foreign cultural products are severely limited (around 20 full-length films per year in the case of cinema), western cultural influences make their way in through other channels, such as distribution of music or films over the Internet or other means (an estimated 95% of the films sold in China are bootleg copies), often after having been 'orientalised' in Taiwan or South Korea. (NYT, 2/I/2006).
Reserves of Soft Power
Along with increasing official contacts and visits and changing the way it communicates with the outside world, China has begun to use other tools of public diplomacy. Chief among these are the staging of major international events (Summer Olympic Games in Beijing in 2008, the Universal Exposition in Shanghai in 2010) and an active policy of cultural and educational exchanges.
Although they are consistent with the strategy of a peaceful ascent and integrated into the overseas information policy, to a large extent these programmes use different channels to the ones discussed earlier. As is the case in other countries, cultural relations seek to build confidence and credibility over the long term through permanent contact with key social sectors in other nations, rather than achieve concrete, immediate goals through focused political messages. As Jan Melissen has observed, recent trends in overseas cultural policy have tried to have cultural relations maintain a certain distance from direct, official messages, even if the relations are promoted by government bodies. At the same time they have broadened their scope to include questions such as human rights, democratic values, the role of the news media, etc, without skirting issues of sensitive national debate. Although Chinese civil society is far from reaching levels of independence comparable to industrialised democracies, China's new public diplomacy seems to have taken careful note of how to strengthen the country's image abroad through cultural relations.
The influence of Chinese culture spread throughout Asia and elsewhere in the world long before the Beijing government decided to incorporate it as an asset in its relations with other countries: in fact, about 30 centuries before. China suffers from no lack of 'soft power' reserves to back up its cultural heritage: a centuries-old intellectual tradition which extended to neighbouring countries in the first millennium BC; inventions like paper, gunpowder, the printing press, porcelain or silk spread through Asia before reaching the West with medieval travellers. The distant image of Cathay and its riches inspired European maritime expansion. Ancient Chinese philosophy, traditional medicine, martial arts, calligraphy and painting were made known around the world by missionaries, traders and diplomatic envoys, especially starting with the period of the Unequal Treaties. Starting in the late 19th century, the Chinese Diaspora established crafts, gastronomy, gymnastics and the holidays of the Chinese calendar in many capitals of Europe and the Americas.
Chinese government bodies take it upon themselves regularly to recall these achievements of the past, and others that are less well known, through news such as that of the discovery of an old map suggesting China discovered the Americas ('China beat Columbus to it, perhaps', The Economist, 12/I/2006), or the appearance of fossils that challenge beliefs on the original dwelling place of homo sapiens, or the finding of the oldest known traces of paper. Recovering the past prior to China's stagnation in the 19th century also serves the function of boosting national pride ('China gives no ground in spats over history', Washington Post, 22/IX/2004) and staking a claim to being a first-grade international power ('La Chine s'imagine en grande puissance', Le Monde, 5/II/2007).
Indeed, China does not need to exert itself too much to stimulate interest in its culture beyond its borders. Some European countries have had to wait in line to hold 'Crossed Years' (Britain, France, Italy, Russia and Spain this year, Greece in 2008, coinciding with the Olympic Games) or to gain permits for opening cultural centres in Chinese territory. Museums in the West stage major exhibits of Chinese art, such as Three Emperors at the Royal Academy of Arts, which coincided with the visit President Hu Jintao paid to London in 2005. Auction houses are posting record sales of Chinese pieces (although with upward price pressure from Chinese buyers), both classical and contemporary ('Sotheby's bets on a windfall for today's Chinese art', NYT, 29/III/2007).
New Cultural Assets
Adding to its traditional cultural assets, China now features new, contemporary creations that are drawing more and more attention in the West. Since the late 1990s, western curators (and Chinese ones such as Hou Hanru) have been dedicating stands at art shows and exhibits to avant-garde Chinese art coming out of major urban areas. Even though such artistic expression is not free of censorship in China itself, the government 'has finally realised that contemporary art "sells" wonderfully' ('El cuento chino', ABCD, 8/IV/2006), and recently started sponsoring the creation of art centres ('China pierde el pudor a través del arte', El Mundo, 8/III/2007). Young Chinese artists are all the rage, promoted heavily by major galleries in Britain and the US. Christie's global sales of contemporary Chinese art rose from €13.5 million to €90 million from 2004 to 2006 ('El arte chino, por las nubes', El País, 27/III/2007). Museums like the Pompidou Centre or the Guggenheim are considering opening branches in China ('Los artistas chinos protagonizan el nuevo boom del mercado del arte', La Nación, 16/I/2007). In Spain, Casa Asia regularly holds cultural events centring on China, such as the recent one on 'hyperarchitecture and hyperdesign'. Artium and the Fundación ICO recently staged exhibits of contemporary Chinese photography and video. Modern Chinese dance has made its way to New York with troupes such as the Guandong Modern Dance Company, Beijing Modern Dance Company and Shen Wei Dance Arts ('China's pirouette into modern form', IHT, 18/III/2007).
Chinese literature has a hard time making a name for itself, although it is starting to carve inroads in literary supplements and on book shelves. In 2000, Gao Xingjian (exiled in France) won the first Nobel prize for literature by a Chinese-language writer. In 2004, Chinese as an original language held 16th place on UNESCO's Index Translationum with 274 translations, improving from 21st place in the period 1979-2002, although it is still ranked below Dutch (330), Portuguese (383) and Catalan (392). Chinese stands have emerged at international book fairs, offering above all low-cost printing but also translation rights ('Less reading, more schmoozing at London Book Fair', NYT, 18/IV/2007). Government officials say that in 2004 China exported 1,314 publication rights and imported 10,040. In 2005 Penguin paid a record US$100,000 for the overseas rights to The Wolf Totem, a work by Jiang Rong that sold more than one million copies in China. Peter Jackson, director of Lord of the Rings, has purchased the rights to a screenplay ('A novel, by someone, takes China by storm', NYT, 3/XI/2005). China is the world's leading printer, but its overseas book sales are far below those of Japan or South Korea, and those books which are exported deal mainly with traditional Chinese culture ('Can culture be China's next export?', People's Daily Online, 29/XII/2006).
Chinese cinema is growing in volume and awards, but is only slowly winning over fans at Western box offices. In 2006 a record number of 330 films were produced in China. This year Jia Zhangke won the Golden Lion award in Venice for his film Still Life, and Zhang Yuan took a prize in Berlin for Little Red Flowers. In 2004, Xu Jinglei earned the award for best director for the film Letter from an Unknown Woman at the San Sebastián film festival. 2046, by Wong Kar Wai, received the Screen International Award, part of the European cinema prizes, in 2004. Zhang Yimou's film Hero was nominated in 2003 for an Oscar for best foreign film. His more recent Curse of the Golden Flower has become the biggest box-office hit in the history of Chinese cinema. In 2002 Chen Kaige won the 'Concha de Oro' for best director at San Sebastián for Together. China's biggest movie star, Gong Li, is a regular at the Cannes film festival. Meanwhile, China's market for films shown in theatres is on the rise and luring interest from industries in neighbouring countries like Japan and Singapore ('For Singapore filmmakers, China Beckons', IHT, 11/IV/2007). And the emergence of Chinese-language films has not gone unnoticed by all-powerful American producers ('China a hit in Hollywood, Bollywood a flop', Asia Times, 22/VII/2005), which are aware of the potential of Chinese actors or directors such as Bruce Lee, Jackie Chan or Ang Lee (born, respectively, in the US, Hong Kong and Taiwan).
Cultural Deficit and Government Action
Despite these successes on the international scene, state-owned Chinese media complain of a deficit in cultural exchanges. They stress the efforts that government officials are making to correct this imbalance by stimulating domestic production and calling for greater creativity and diversity in China's cultural products. Here is another incentive for implementing a formal policy of spreading Chinese culture: boosting that odd mix of merchandise and communicative power that is held by cultural products. The Report on Government Work that was presented at the 10th National People's Congressin March 2007 gave a brief accounting of the development of China's culture industry: 'We energetically developed culture and sports. The press and publishing, radio, television, film, literature and art, philosophy and the social sciences flourished. Culture-related facilities, especially in rural areas, were improved. The project to expand radio and television coverage in rural areas was extended from incorporated villages to unincorporated villages. Continued progress was made in the project to build multi-use cultural centers in communities, towns and townships and the national shared database project for cultural information and resources. Reform of the cultural management system was deepened. Development of the culture industry was accelerated, and cultural exchanges with other countries were increased (…). Efforts to promote socialist cultural and ethical progress were strengthened'.
Cultural co-operation is not an isolated issue for the government but rather consciously integrated into the strategy for peaceful development: 'As the trend of economic globalization develops in depth, China, all the more aware of the significance of exchanges and dialogues among different civilizations, is working harder to get the rest of the world to understand China, while absorbing and drawing on the useful fruits of other civilizations. In recent years, China has cooperated with numerous countries in holding Culture Weeks, Culture Tours, Culture Festivals, thus helping promote exchanges and understanding between the Chinese people and other peoples, and creating new forms for equal dialogue between civilizations' (White Paper on Peaceful Development Road, www.china.org.cn/english/2005/Dec/152669.htm).
In a recent article, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao gave a more detailed explanation of cultural relations as part of China's global strategy and described a complete programme: 'We should expand cultural exchanges with other countries. Cultural exchanges are a bridge connecting the hearts and minds of people of all countries and an important way to project a country's image. (…) We should use various forms and means, including tour performance and exhibition, Chinese language teaching, academic exchange and sponsoring culture year activities, to promote Chinese culture and increase its appeal overseas. We should implement a "going global" cultural strategy, develop culture industry, improve the international competitiveness of Chinese cultural enterprises and products, increase the export of books, films, TV programs and other cultural products, so that these Chinese cultural products and particularly the best of them, will reach the rest of the world (…)'. Wen concludes by adopting the concept of public diplomacy: 'We should conduct public diplomacy in a more effective way. We should inform the outside world of the achievements we have made in reform, opening-up and modernization in a comprehensive, accurate and timely manner. At the same time, we should be frank about the problems we have. (…) We should work to enable the international community to develop an objective and balanced view on China's development and international role, so as to foster an environment of friendly public opinion for China' ('Our Historical Tasks at the Primary Stage of Socialism and Several Issues Concerning China's Foreign Policy', China Daily, 27/II/2007).
Before the actual public formulation of this policy, China had already begun to invest considerable resources in a range of culture policies aimed overseas, on its own or in co-operation with other countries. In 2003 the Kennedy Center in Washington DC held the Festival of China, with a budget of US$2 million. After touring the globe, the Xian warriors stopped off in Spain in 2004 and they will soon visit the British Museum in London, where they will coincide with the China in London festival, held annually since 2006. The year of China in France was held from October 2003 to June 2004, with hundreds of cultural activities. During a visit to Russia in late March of this year, President Hu Jintao inaugurated the year of China in Russia, which boasts 200 commercial, scientific and cultural activities. These and others mentioned in the earlier section are just some examples of this fledgling policy of China assuring a cultural presence overseas.
The Return of Confucius
Among the initiatives the Chinese government has undertaken to enhance the country's image abroad, special mention should go to the policy for international promotion of the language. Although government sources say there are precedents that go back to the 1950s, the current policy for teaching Chinese as a foreign language 'is an integral part of the current drive for reform and openness'. After a 'severe setback' during the Cultural Revolution (1966-76), 'the national power of China has made notable progress, and teaching of Chinese as a foreign language has entered a new phase of vigorous development'. In 1987, China formed what would later become the Office of the Chinese Language Council International (abbreviated as Hanban, from Hanyu Bangongshi, or China National Office for Teaching Chinese as a Foreign Language).
Hanban's mission is 'making the Chinese language and culture teaching resources and services available to the world, meeting the demands of overseas Chinese learners to the utmost, to contributing to the formation of a world of cultural diversity and harmony'. Its functions include supporting the teaching of Chinese in other countries' educational systems, supervising the Confucius Institute and establishing institutes abroad; training specialised teachers and sending volunteer teachers abroad; coming up with study plans and materials; and developing and promoting tests of students' knowledge of Chinese.
China's Education Ministry explains the policy this way: 'Teaching Chinese as a foreign language (TCFL) is an integral part of China's reform and opening up drive. To promote TCFL is of strategic significance to popularize the Chinese language and culture throughout the world, to enhance the friendship and mutual understanding as well as the economic and cultural cooperation and exchanges between China and other countries around the world, and to elevate China's influence in the international community'. It can be argued that the Chinese authorities have decided to promote their language for at least two reasons: to show the country has all the attributes of a major power, including an important international language, and to help foreigners get to know better China's culture and values and thus be more inclined to accept China's positions and vision of the world. In line with the theory of peaceful rise, one can also discern in official Chinese discourse a desire to present the international expansion of Chinese culture and language not as hegemonic or a bid to impose, but rather as just another component of the world's cultural diversity, a richness in which different cultures must coexist in harmonious equilibrium despite their differences.
The flagship of Chinese public diplomacy takes its name from the great sage whose moral and humanistic teachings spread through China and neighbouring countries starting in the 6th century BC. There would be nothing odd about China choosing the name of its most internationally famous man of letters, just like other institutes carry the names of Goethe, Dante Alighieri or Cervantes, but for the fact that China tried several times during the 20th century to wipe away all trace of Confucianism, especially during the Cultural Revolution. Now, however, the image of Confucius and the basic lines of his thought fit into the image that China wants to project to the rest of the world: harmony with other countries, virtuous government, mutual respect, loyalty, humanity and restraint. The recovery of the figure of Confucius also evokes the soft influence that China exerted over Asia in ancient times and its growing presence now in the region. Within China, the values of Confucianism are celebrated on state-run TV and once again appear on school curricula and even in official speeches, all as an ethic reference aimed at a society undergoing an abrupt transformation, one that finds itself halfway between the collectivism of the communist regime and China's version of capitalism. It might be a home-grown alternative to the western cultural values associated with economic development and modernisation ('The Confucian renaissance', Asia Times, 16/XI/2005; 'Can the Sage save China?', Newsweek, 20/III/2006; 'Confucius re-enters China's schools to parry Westerns ways', Christian Science Monitor, 8/XII/2006).
One Hundred Institutes in Three Years
The success of the Confucius Institutes has been stunning. The first two opened almost simultaneously in Seoul and Maryland in November 2004. As this study went to print, the Institute's web site said there were altogether 110 branches. Some recent press reports put the figure at more than 140 such centres as of March 2007 ('The new tongue-in-chic', China Daily, 14/III/2007). Furthermore, some 100 foreign institutions have requested or shown interest in opening a new institute. It seems Hanban has broadened its initial goals by seeking to reach the figure of 500 institutes in 2010 and 1,000 in 2020. In order to teach Chinese to 100 million students in 2020 it is estimated that 5 million teachers will have to be trained. But according to the same figures, today there are only 5,000 teachers in China who are certified to teach Chinese to foreigners. In 2004 the Chinese government launched a programme to send 'volunteers' abroad to teach Chinese and train new professors. Just over 1,000 professors and an equal number of volunteers served abroad in 2006 ('China moves to meet surging demand for Chinese language teachers', People's Daily, 20/III/2007).
The spread of the Confucius Institute, now present on five continents, highlights the global ambitions of Chinese public diplomacy (see Table 1). Their distribution is also significant. They are predominant in Asia and Europe, while the United States is the country with the highest number. Their presence in Africa is fledgling, but indicative of
China's growing interest in the continent. There are many fewer in Latin America, but no shortage of talk of centres opening soon. In Spain there are three Confucius Centres so far: at the Autonomous University of Madrid, the University of Granada and the University of Valencia.
Table 1. Distribution of Confucius Institutes
Country Nr of institutes
Asia-OCEANIA 42
Africa-MIDDLE EAST 8
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia 1
Source: www.hanban.edu.cn, May 2007.
The organisational model of the Confucius Institute is more flexible than that of its western counterparts. This flexibility is attributable to a drive for rapid impact with meagre resources: 50 employees at the central headquarters in Beijing (it opened a new building in April 2007, according to Xinhua) and diplomatic and educational staff at Chinese embassies and consulates, besides the professors and volunteers sent abroad. There are no precise and complete figures for Hanban's budget. As a result of this frugality, the network has been able to grow swiftly only in an 'organic' way ('Selling the sage of Qufu', The Economist, 8/VII/2006).
Rather than a physical and visible presence with buildings designated as such, the Institute prefers to set up shop in universities or institutes of higher education. Openings of new institutes are often part of an agreement or exchange of letters during a meeting or official visit between Chinese leaders and those of other countries, and as such they appear in press communiqués along with other official announcements. Other times such openings are the result of a request by a foreign entity received in the central headquarters. In all cases, the institutes are founded through agreements with universities or other institutions, under which the latter contribute the infrastructure (premises, computers, academic planning) and the Chinese authorities agree to contribute financial aid, teachers and other forms of backing (cultural activities, teaching material).
Presumably the nature and volume of this aid depends on the means and resources that the host institution can earmark for the institute. For instance, the Confucius Institute of Kansas received US$100,000 a year from the Chinese government and US$150,000 from the university the year it opened ('Confucius Institute defends funding, mission', Associated Press, 8/I/2007). Harvard turned down financing from the Chinese government so as to keep its academic independence from being called into question. The University of Vancouver vetoed the formation of a board of trustees independent from the governing body of the university ('Teaching the ABCs of Chinese', www.canada.com, 16/XII/2005). Nor has controversy been absent from the opening of institutes in the US, as seen in these and other cases ('Why China wants you to learn Chinese', Christian Science Monitor, 4/I/2007).
In July 2005 the first International Congress of the Chinese Language was held, bringing together officials from the 25 institutes open at the time, in addition to other experts and educational professionals. China also pays attention to scholars of Chinese history and civilisation: in March 2007 the World Conference on Sinology was held in Beijing.
Besides running the international network of institutes, Hanban is in charge of administering official Chinese language exams. Government officials say more than half a million people have passed the Hanyu Shuiping Kaoshi or HSK (Chinese proficiency test) since it was created in 1990. Many of them are or were foreigners studying in China: while in the mid-1980s some 8,000 foreigners studied in China each year, in 2005 the time had risen to 140,000. That year 117,660 foreigners took the test, up from 26.5% from the previous year.
The Rise of the Chinese Language
China's institutional effort to promote its language receives help from the growing demand to learn Chinese as a foreign language, a reflection of China's upward political and economic path. Official Chinese studies say there are between 30 and 40 million people studying Chinese around the world, and around 2,500 universities and institutes of higher learning offering Chinese classes in more than 100 countries. The fever to learn Chinese mostly affects neighbouring countries, the origin of most of the university students who go to China. In South Korea the number of students of the Chinese language rose 66% from 2000 to 2005, reaching 160,000. In Japan the number of schools offering Chinese trebled from 1993 to 2005, and it is now the second most frequently taught foreign language after English. Thailand has set for itself the goal of having 30% of students register to study Chinese over the next five years. China supports this trend by providing technical teaching assistance and through development aid, for example giving assistance for students to attend Chinese schools in Cambodia.
The rise in demand is also felt outside the Asia-Pacific region, especially in the US. If the data provided by Berlitz are anything to go by, in 1984-2004 the demand for Chinese language teaching grew by 454.01%, faster than for English (43.29%) and Spanish (9.57%), while there was a decline in the demand for Italian (-17.23%), French (-17.29%) and German (-42.89%) (I Informe Berlitz sobre la demanda de enseñanza de español en el mundo, 2005). However, at the university level Chinese still lags far behind languages such as Spanish, French and German, with 34,153 students signing up to study it in 2002 (2.1% of the total, compared with 53.4%, 14.5% and 6.5% for these others, respectively). But Chinese grew more than those languages in the preferences of university students in the period 1998-2002, according to the Modern Language Association. With data not yet available for the period immediately after this, presumably in the past five years growth has been even greater (64% from 2000-05 according to some sources). At the primary and secondary education level, Chinese language teaching is still quite scarce, although it is rising. A report by the Asia Society ('Expanding Chinese-Language Capacity in the United Status', 2005) estimates there are around 24,000 children learning Chinese in primary and secondary education, and another 150,000 in 'Heritage Schools'. At least 27 states offer the Chinese language in their state school systems. According to the Center for Applied Linguistics of Washington DC there are 12 private or state schools that offer immersion programmes in Mandarin (and one in Cantonese). News on openings of Chinese courses in schools and universities are growing in local newspapers. In 2003, Chinese was offered at 200 primary and secondary schools but in 2006 the number was 600. The College Board signed a five-year accord in April 2006 with Hanban to expand teaching of Chinese language and culture in American universities. As a destination for study abroad China posted the third-highest growth among US university students in the period 2003/04-2004/05, according to the Institute of International Education, after India and Argentina, although it only reached 8th place, with 3.1% of the total of overseas study spots.
The teaching of Chinese and other non-European languages has won the support of federal authorities in the US. The Senate is considering a bi-partisan bill to earmark US$1.3 billion for the teaching of Chinese in state schools. The Chicago state school system has developed the largest Chinese programme over the past six years: almost 3,000 pupils are studying Mandarin in 20 schools. In 2005 the Defense Department provided a grant of US$700.000 to the University of Oregon and the Portland area to help students of Mandarin throughout their educational years. The State Department will require greater linguistic skills from its diplomats, especially in Chinese, Urdu and Arabic ('Diplomats will be shifted to hot spots', Washington Post, 19/I/2006). The National Security Language Initiative, launched by President Bush in February 2006 seeks to encourage the teaching of foreign languages in the US and includes a federal assistance programme with US$114 million in funding.
Table 2. The 10 most widely-spoken languages in the US
Nr of speakers
English only 215,423,557
All other languages combined 46,951,595
Spanish 28,101,052
Chinese 2,022,838
French 1,643,838
German 1,382,613
Tagalog 1,224,241
Vietnamese 1,008,370
Italian 1,008,370
Korean 894,063
Russian 706,242
Total 262,375,152
Source: 'Language Use and English-speaking Ability, 2000', Census 2000 Brief, October 2003.
Another important factor in the rise of Chinese, especially in Asia and North America, is the volume and distribution of the Chinese diaspora. An estimated 45 million Chinese-born people are living abroad. Chinese communities spread around the World make up a network for basic maintenance of the language by providing a basic educational structure. In the US, where the Census Bureau says there are 2.02 million speakers of Chinese (see Table 2), early demand for Chinese as a foreign language has been met first by 'Heritage Chinese' schools, which Chinese communities had originally organised spontaneously. They were first attended by parents who do not speak Chinese, a growing number of whom want their children to be exposed to the language. Over the past decade China has rebuilt its ties with organisations of ethnic Chinese in South-East Asia, among whom there is a better disposition towards the great power from which many fled for political or economic reasons (Eric Teo Chu Cheow, 'China's Rising Soft Power in Southeast Asia', PacNet nr 19A, Pacific Forum CSIS, 3/V/2994). Some countries, such as Indonesia, have lifted Cold War-era restrictions on the teaching of Chinese.
Will the new Chinese diplomacy succeed in its goal of fostering a more favourable international perception of this rising power? There is no doubt that the charm offensive China has launched in recent years has had an extraordinary impact in the rest of the world, with help from the growing political and economic weight of China and probably the decline of the US's image. China's capacity to lure has solid foundations (thousand-year-old values, cultural tradition and creative vigour) and there is no doubt that the great strides of the past quarter-century, which would have been impossible without an unprecedented opening up to the outside world, are creating conditions for even deeper transformations in Chinese society. But the inadequacies which still limit the full development of China, the imbalances caused by stunning growth and the contradictions in its foreign policy limit the credibility of the great power's public relations policy and call into question its efficiency. Minxin Pei warns: 'before we all start learning Chinese and marvelling at the accomplishments of the Chinese Communist Party, we might want to pause for a moment' ('The Dark Side of China's Rise', Foreign Policy, April-May 2006).
All signs are that China still has a long way to go before it reaches the levels of prestige and tangible influence ('soft power') enjoyed by Europe or North America. In the end these are based on their high standard of living and a system of values that grants a high degree of individual freedom. Meanwhile, China takes careful note of the new international trends in public diplomacy for the management of its image abroad. However, it also monitors the criticism that the contradictions in its model of economic and political development receives overseas. Some incidents have put the Chinese authorities on the alert, such as an attack on an oil installation in Ethiopia that left nine Chinese workers dead, or Taiwan's refusal to allow the path of the running of the Olympic torch to include the island. Certainly, the proximity of the Olympic Games in Beijing have had an influence on certain recent changes in the government, including the replacement of Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing by Li Yang Jiechi (ambassador to Washington from 2001 to 2005) and the incorporation of the first non-communist minister in many years, Wan Gang, to lead the Ministry of Science and Technology.
Jaime Otero Roth
Senior Analyst, Spanish Language and Culture, Elcano Royal Institute
Bustelo, Pablo (2005), 'China's Emergence: Threat or "Peaceful Rise"?', ARI nr 135/2005, Elcano Royal Institute, www.realinstitutoelcano.org.
Cooper Ramo, Joshua (2007), Brand China, Foreign Policy Centre.
Gill, Bates, and Yanzhong Huang (2006), 'Sources and Limits of Chinese "Soft Power"', Survival, vol. 48, nr 2.
D'Hooghe, Ingrid (2005), 'Public Diplomacy in the People's Republic of China', in Jan Melissen (ed.), The New Public Diplomacy. Soft Power in International Relations, Palgrave MacMillan.
Kurlantzick, Joshua (2006), China's Charm: Implications of Chinese Soft Power, Policy Brief nr 47, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Melissen, Jan (2005), 'The New Public Diplomacy: Between Theory and Practice', in Jan Melissen (ed.), The New Public Diplomacy. Soft Power in International Relations, Palgrave MacMillan.
Noya, Javier (2007), Diplomacia pública para el siglo XXI, Ariel-Real Instituto Elcano.
Otero, Jaime (2005), La lengua española y el sistema lingüístico de Asia-Pacífico, DT 2005/3, Elcano Royal Institute, www.realinstitutoelcano.org.
Rawnsley, Gary D. (2005), 'Old Wine in New Bottles: China-Taiwan Computer-based "Information Warfare" and propaganda', International Affairs, vol. 81, nr 5.
Rodao, Florentino (1995), 'Visiones de China: historia de una relación problemática', Revista de Occidente, nr 172, September.
Soto, Augusto (2007), El perímetro de la Gran Muralla virtual china, ARI nr 37/2007, Elcano Royal Institute, www.realinstitutoelcano.org.
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By Charles Powell // Posted on 27 Jan 2023
Presentation of the Elcano Policy Paper "España en el mundo en 2023: perspectivas y desafíos"
// Posted on 11 Jan 2023
Previous Information or Propaganda? The Hunger Strike of Eta Terrorist Ignacio de Juana Chaos and its Coverage in 'The Times' (ARI)
Next Spain in the Face of China's Technological Ambition (ARI)
Written by Jaime Otero
Information or Propaganda? The Hunger Strike of Eta Terrorist Ignacio de Juana Chaos and its Coverage in 'The Times' (ARI)
// Posted on 26 Mar 2007
Spain in the Face of China's Technological Ambition (ARI)
// Posted on 09 Jul 2007


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text:
Q: How to Identify magic number on boot partition? After reading this snippet from source

Magic Number
Located in the final two bytes of the MBR (511-512), this section must contain the hex value AA55, which officially classifies this as a valid MBR. An invalid magic number indicates a corrupt or missing MBR, therefore these bytes are critical to booting or using the disk.

With this information I wrote the following program to test:
#include<errno.h>
#include<stdio.h>
#include<stdlib.h>
#include<string.h>
#include<unistd.h>
#include<sys/types.h>
#include<sys/stat.h>
#include<fcntl.h>

#define SECTOR_SIZE 512

int main(int argc,char *argv[])
{
  int offset=0;int rc=-1;

  char *sector = aligned_alloc(SECTOR_SIZE,SECTOR_SIZE);
  memset(sector,'\0',SECTOR_SIZE);

  /*opening the src blk device*/
  int fd;
  if((fd=open("/dev/sda", O_RDWR |O_SYNC | O_DIRECT))==-1)
  {
     perror("open hdd:");
     return -1;
  }

  if(lseek(fd,offset,SEEK_SET)==-1)
  {
     perror("lseek hdd:");
     return -1;
  }

  rc = read(fd,sector,SECTOR_SIZE);

   /*used to identify whether the last two bytes of the first sector
    * contain the magic number to indicate it is bootable */
  if(sector[SECTOR_SIZE-1]==0xAA55 && sector[SECTOR_SIZE]==0xAA55)
  {
     printf("[+]Found bootable section magic bytes match\n");
     exit(EXIT_SUCCESS);
  }
   free(sector);
   close(fd);

   return 0;
  }

However When I compile and run.

gcc -W -g -D_GNU_SOURCE example.c

I receive the following warnings and when I attempt to run the program anyway,
it doesn't output anything,thus the magic number hasn't been identified. I'm clearly missing something. I just quickly put this together after reading the
prior snipped from google and give it a go.

example.c:40:26: warning: comparison is always false due to limited range of data type [-Wtype-limits]
if(sector[SECTOR_SIZE-1]==0xAA55 && sector[SECTOR_SIZE]==0xAA55)
^~
example.c:40:57: warning: comparison is always false due to limited range of data type [-Wtype-limits]
if(sector[SECTOR_SIZE-1]==0xAA55 && sector[SECTOR_SIZE]==0xAA55)

So comparison is false due to limited range of data type, but why, isn't
each sector 512 bytes?
Note: running "parted -l" says my partition table is msdos(does this change things as prior source talks MBR) and sector size is 512B.

A: Note that sector is a char*, so sector[<anything>] is a char, i.e. 8-bits; and yet you are comparing it with 0xAA55, a 16-bit value. What you want is:
if(sector[SECTOR_SIZE-2]==0x55 && sector[SECTOR_SIZE-1]==0xAA)

Note also that the last two bytes of the sector are SECTOR_SIZE-2 and SECTOR_SIZE-1, not SECTOR_SIZE-1 and SECTOR_SIZE.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Job Growth Falls Off a Cliff
The coronavirus pandemic is raging out of control across the entire country, overwhelming hospital systems and prompting a fresh round of shutdowns and reduced business activity.
It probably should come as little surprise that our economic recovery is slowing if not entirely reversing, but job growth fell by a staggering amount in November according to a new report from the Labor Department.
Job growth slowed by over half.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 245,000 jobs last month after rising by 610,000 in October, the Labor Department said on Friday. That was the smallest gain since the jobs recovery started in May. The fifth straight monthly slowdown in job gains left employment 9.8 million below its February peak.
Job growth last month was held back by further departures of temporary workers hired for the 2020 Census. States and local governments are also expected to have shed more workers, leaving overall government payrolls to drop by 99,000 jobs, the second straight monthly decline. The private sector added 344,000 jobs.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls would increase by 469,000 jobs in November. Hiring peaked at 4.781 million jobs in June.
It remains to be seen what will happen over the next 50 days, but it's quite possible that Joe Biden will take office in a second era of job losses, not growth.
There's no indication that our current surge and outbreak of the coronavirus is close to peaking yet. We've already baked in a significant amount of pain and deaths over the next month. There's also no reason to think Senate Republicans are going to agree to pass additional stimulus.
To illustrate just how unlikely it is that a significant stimulus package will revive the economy, consider this: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has rejected a bipartisan proposal in favor of his own, smaller proposal that would not actually do anything to reverse our economic decline. McConnell's proposal does not include stimulus checks for consumers or any funding that would enable cities and states to retain jobs. It's a dud whose centerpiece is protection from legal liability for corporations.
I can only hope that voters in the state of Georgia understand that McConnell and the GOP will keep the country bogged down in economic stagnation if they don't vote for Raphael Warnock and Jon Osoff in the special election for control of the Senate.
Trump Considers Pardoning The Family Regime
Tweeter in Chief


Hot on the heels of the Chancellor's announcement in the 2015 Autumn Statement that additional Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) of 3% is to be payable from 1 April this year on the purchase of additional residential properties in England and Wales (i.e. those purchased other than as a main residence), the government is consulting on how the measure is to be implemented.
The consultation opened on 28 December 2015 and closes on 1 February 2016 - a short period for such a major change. Commentators have expressed that this smacks of "tax policy on the hoof". Draft legislation is expected by the 2016 Budget (on 16 March 2016) and the changes are expected to apply from 1 April 2016. We summarise below the government's proposals - it is possible that these may change as a result of the consultation.
Following the changes to the regime introduced in 2014, SDLT is charged on the purchase of residential property using a "slice" system. The different rates of SDLT are set out in the table below. The relevant rate of tax applies to the part or slice of the purchase consideration that falls within that price band. This generally meant a reduction in tax paid by buyers at the lower end of the market.
The new higher rate will not apply to purchases where a buyer does not own another home even where a property is being purchased as a buy to let. However, homes owned outside of England and Wales are to be taken into account. The changes are likely to apply to whatever purchase vehicle or entity is used to prohibit avoidance tactics such as corporate wrappers. Further, the changes are likely to apply where a husband and wife buy a property together and one of the couple (or both) already owns a property in their own name. Similarly, the higher rate will apply to the total purchase price paid by joint purchasers in a transaction where any one of the joint purchasers has two or more properties and is not replacing their main residence.
The higher rate will apply to purchases which complete on or after 1 April 2016 unless exchange of contracts took place before 26 November 2015 (for example in the case of an off plan purchase or less commonly, a conditional contract with a long completion date). It is anticipated that the legislation will include transitional provisions so that, for example, variations to or assignments of contracts exchanged before 26 November 2015 may result in the new higher rates applying.
If a new main residence is purchased prior to the sale of the current main residence, then the higher rate will apply to the purchase, but a refund can be claimed where the former main residence is sold within 18 months of the new purchase.
If contracts are exchanged on or after 25 November 2015 then the higher rate will apply only if the purchase does not complete before 1 April 2016. If the contract pre dates 25 November 2015, the higher rate will not apply regardless of when the purchase completes.
An exemption has been proposed for large scale investors (as further detailed below).
Multiple Dwellings Relief will continue to apply where multiple residential dwellings are purchased in a single or linked transaction.
Unsurprisingly, there has been considerable concern in the industry as to the impact these changes will have on the buy to let market, which many consider has already peaked. However, the Chancellor's intention appears to be to diminish the appetite of would be landlords – part of a general offence against private landlords, which also includes changes introduced to the Capital Gains Tax regime.
The generation of PR friendly headlines aside, the rationale behind the additional tax is to assist first time buyers, by discouraging the purchase of second and multiple homes so those homes are instead available to "generation rent" struggling to get on the property ladder. It is estimated that 150,000 transactions will be caught by the change annually – the majority of these, buy to let.
However, despite the excitement and hyperbole surrounding the shock statement, the changes will impact few on a day to day basis. The contribution made by major investment in residential properties by corporates is acknowledged, and the government is considering whether to exempt bulk purchases of 15 or more properties in a single transaction or purchases by investors and corporates with an existing portfolio of more than 15 properties (the former route appears to be emerging as the favoured one). This type of large scale investment is not seen to be in competition with individual homebuyers. It is recognised that major investment of this nature can help developers to finance a development opportunity and to build out sites faster, and therefore can lead to an overall increase in housing supply. Views are sought on whether this exemption should be extended to individual large-scale investors.
Non-residential property is unaffected. This includes commercial property (such as warehouses, shops or offices), agricultural land, bare land (even where this may subsequently be used for residential development), 6 or more residential properties bought in a single transaction of mixed use property and any other land or property which is not used as a residence.
The purchase of residential property over £500,000 in a corporate or non-natural person vehicle currently attracts a higher SDLT charge of 15% on the entire purchase price (based on the historic "slab" system rather than the "slice" system). This rule will still apply in the first instance, but where it does not apply such buyers will need to consider the additional rate rules. Buy to let is currently exempt from the 15% SDLT charge and this should remain the case.
SDLT is payable within 30 days of the "effective date" of a transaction, which is usually the completion date but the government is to consult on whether the filing date for returns should be reduced to 14 days from the effective date.
The government is already most of the way through its fleeting consultation window and will consider all responses before the final policy design is confirmed in the March Budget. The higher rates of SDLT are expected to apply from 1 April 2016.