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Like Kanawha County Board of Education on Facebook
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Kanawha County Schools
Ryan White, Board President
Ryan White was re-elected to the board of education for his second four-year term beginning July 1, 2018. He currently serves as the Board's president. Ryan is also the current president of the School Board Association of West Virginia. Ryan served on the RESA 3 Advisory Board from 2014 until 2018. He and his wife Kate have two boys, Jackson and Cameron, and a daughter Jillian. He runs a law firm with his father, Steve White and Mark Matkovich, known as White Law Offices, PLLC which is a boutique transactional firm that focuses on public finance law and government relations. Ryan's prior public service include serving as a law clerk to the Honorable Judge Joseph Robert Goodwin in 2005-2006, counsel to the West Virginia Senate Finance and Economic Development Committees in the 2009, 2010 and 2011 legislative session and serving on Governor Tomblin's Natural Gas Vehicle Task Force in 2012-2013. Ryan graduated from the University of Michigan with a BA in Political Science in 2001 and graduated from the West Virginia University College of Law with a J.D. in 2005. Ryan has been very active in the Kanawha Community serving as Co-Chair of Generation Charleston, President of the East End Community Association, as a board member of Kids Chance of West Virginia and the Childhood Language Center.
Email: Ryan White
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Stream Movie
Comedy Cult
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Rated: 18+ (R)20081h 48mOn: Netflix Tags: Drug Religion Country: United Kingdom
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Ray and Ken, two hit men, are in Bruges, Belgium, waiting for their next mission. While they are there they have time to think and discuss their previous assignment. When the mission is revealed to Ken, it is not what he expected.In Bruges featuring Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson is streaming with subscription on Netflix, available for rent or purchase on iTunes, available for rent or purchase on Google Play, and 4 others. It's a comedy and crime movie with a high Rotten Tomatoes (critics) score of 83% and a high IMDb audience rating of 7.9 (363,026 votes).
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Ken Daley
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Reelgood Watch Guide
The Streamability Score factors in where something can be watched at a given moment and weighs it against the popularity and cost of the available streaming services. The higher the score, the easier it is to stream for the largest number of people.
Available to stream on a popular subscription service (Netflix).
Available to rent or buy from $3.99 on 6 services (iTunes, Google Play, Prime Video & 3 others).
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#186 Ranked Movie
#15 Ranked in Drug Movies
#19 Ranked in Cult Movies
#35 Ranked in Movies on Netflix
In Bruges has a high Rotten Tomatoes (critics) score of 83% and a high IMDb audience rating of 7.9 (363,026 votes). The movie is extremely popular with Reelgood users lately.
Stream More Movies & Shows Like In Bruges
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Léon: The Professional (1994)
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Daniel Hodge (born ) is a Curaçaoan politician who served as the third Prime Minister of Curaçao. He was sworn in on  by Acting Governor , replacing Stanley Betrian, who led an interim government in the last months of 2012. On , Hodge lodged the resignation of his cabinet and continued in a demissionary capacity until a new cabinet was formed on . Hodge was formerly director of the . Hodge was elected as the new leader of the  (PAR) on , replacing Emily de Jongh-Elhage, who resigned in late 2012.

References

1959 births
Living people
Party for the Restructured Antilles politicians
Prime Ministers of Curaçao

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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ETUC position on the structural reform of the EU Emissions Trading System
Approved at the Executive Committee Meeting of 16-17 December 2015
In July 2015, the European Commission published a proposal for the reform of the EU Emissions Trading system (EU ETS) for the period 2021-2030. This proposal is based on the guidelines defined by the conclusions of the European Council of October 2014. The present resolution aims to update the ETUC's position on this essential element of the European framework on the fight against climate change and to reiterate both the need to better articulate industrial and climate policies, as well as the importance of operationalising the "just transition" through concrete measures. These comments and proposals are based on extensive consultations among trade unions across the EU as well as on an ongoing ETUC research project into low carbon industrial strategies across seven key industrial regions.
List of the ETUC key demands
- The European Commission must develop an integrated and coherent sustainable industrial strategy and should set up a policy platform to that aim.
- After Paris COP 21, the EU must make an in-depth assessment of the risk of carbon leakage and the policy instruments it has to effectively tackle it
- The EU must create a Just Transition Fund to support workers which would be negatively impacted by the transition to a low-carbon economy.
- The EU must effectively implement the Innovation Fund and the Modernisation Fund and involve social partners in their management
- At least 90 % of ETS auctioning revenues should be used by Member States to support activities which are clearly climate-related.
In order to help limit global warming to 2°C maximum, the EU has committed itself to precise targets to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. More specifically, the EU must reduce its emissions by 20% by the year 2020, by at least 40% in 2030 and by 80% to 95% in 2050. To that end, the EU has developed a political and regulatory framework, the cornerstone of which is the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS). The goal set for 2030 for sectors covered by the EU-ETS is to reduce emissions by 43% compared with the 2005 levels. (For their part, sectors not covered by the EU-ETS must reduce their emissions by 30% compared with the 2005 levels).
The EU-ETS was set up in 2005 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy generation and most of the manufacturing sectors, which correspond to about 45% of gas emissions. It covers CO2, nitric oxide (N2O) and perfluorinated hydrocarbon (PFC) emissions from more than 12,000 electric power stations and industrial sites in 28 Member States as well as Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway. Based on the cap and trade model, the EU-ETS limits the volume of annual emissions whilst authorising emitters to trade their emission quotas. This volume is reduced annually by a certain percentage (1.74% at present). The price signal from the cap must guide investments to the technologies with the lowest emissions whereas the flexibility left to the participants in the system helps reduce the cost of emission reduction measures.
The free allocation of quotas by the Member States which had prevailed in the first two phases of the system (2005-2007; 2008-2012), was replaced in the third phase (2013- 2020) by a centralised allocation system which will progressively rely more on the quota auction process. In this system, 57% of the emission quotas will be auctioned, whilst the remaining 43% will be distributed to companies free of charge. Electricity generation facilities must in essence acquire their emission quotas through the auction process, whilst the share of the free quota allocation of the industrial sectors will be reduced from 80% in 2013 to 30% in 2020.
Additional measures have nonetheless been planned to address the risks of "carbon leakage" (i.e. relocations to countries with less ambitious climate policies brought about by the EU-ETS). The sectors and subsectors which are concurrently CO2 emission intensive and whose production is in significant measure intended for the international markets are placed on what is known as a "carbon leakage" list which is reviewed every five years. This list enables the industries concerned to receive, free of charge, a volume of emission quotas, calculated on the basis of a reference level of 10% of the most efficient facilities in the EU for a given product. The current carbon leakage list comprises 177 industrial sectors and covers 97% of emissions of these sectors.
The European legislation also enables the Member States to offset the increase in the price of electricity which would be caused by the EU-ETS through State aid granted to the companies concerned.
The free allocation of the first two phases, the extensive use of CDM credits, combined with the effects of the economic crisis, has generated an over-allocation of emission quotas which is partly responsible for the surplus of emission quotas that has driven the prices of quota emissions down. Two measures have been taken to deal with this surplus problem and restore the price signal of the system: first, the auction of 900 million quotas has been postponed until 2019-2020, and second, a market strategic reserve is to be put in place to stabilise the volumes of emission quotas present on the market.
The key changes proposed by the European Commission for the period 2021-2030 are:
- The linear reduction factor would go from 1.74% to 2.2%, which entails an intensification of the annual reduction of the quotas put on the market.
- A higher differentiation and more frequent revision of the reference levels used for the allocation free of charge.
- 250 million quotas would be allocated to a reserve for new entrants or strong growth production activities.
- The carbon leakage list would comprise of no more than 50 sectors and would cover no more than 90% of industrial emissions.
- A fund for innovation will be created. It will be fed by revenue generated from auctioning 450 million emission quotas, i.e. €10 billion according to the Commission's estimates. The fund is intended to provide greater support for renewable energies, CO2 capture and storage, and the deployment of low carbon industrial technologies.
- A fund for modernisation will also be created to provide financial support for the modernisation of energy systems in Member States where per capita GDP in 2013 is below 60% of the European average.
General principles of the ETUC's position
In line with its previous positions, the ETUC strongly reaffirms its support for policies to counter climate change which not only provide a fair contribution from Europe to the global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions but also guarantee the creation of quality employment, the reduction of fossil imports and the improvement of air quality. The EU ETS reform must help achieve the decarbonisation objectives of the European economy whilst allowing a "just transition" for all workers without undermining quality of life or generating windfall profit.
In calling for a "just transition", the ETUC has always refused to pit maintaining jobs against environmental protection. The two goals must be pursued with equal determination. The ETUC has adopted the same approach to the reform of the EU ETS. Industrial activities and the quality jobs they generate are absolutely essential to a prosperous and fair society. European climate policies must stimulate the transformation of these sectors through investment and innovation, but must certainly not precipitate their decline. The side effects of a relocation of production activities may under no circumstances be pursued in lieu of a climate change policy. The EU must adopt a real low-carbon industrial policy and take appropriate measures to ensure the EU ETS effectively contributes to an effective and socially fair transition to a low-carbon economy.
The ETUC's demands
The European Commission must develop an integrated and coherent sustainable industrial strategy and should to that aim set up a policy platform
The ETUC calls on the European Commission to launch an initiative aimed at developing a real, proactive and visionary European sustainable industrial policy, one that includes all the dimensions of this problem, and in particular the following elements: innovation, infrastructure and facilities, raw materials1, financing, training for the workforce, and international trade. In spite of remarkable initiatives, the European Commission's current approach remains fragmented and far too dependent on one instrument – the EU ETS – which is functioning more on the basis of financial rationales than as a real project to build a European sustainable industry. A European platform for the development of a sustainable industry, that brings together industrialists, the public authorities, trade union representatives and experts from the civil society in a balanced manner could certainly contribute towards that goal. Collecting data through indicators showing resource and carbon intensity of industrial products, in the EU and globally, should be a priority in order to monitor the transformation of the EU industry and ensure that the targets are met through investment and innovation and not through delocalisation of activities.
After Paris COP 21, the EU must make an in-depth assessment of the risk of carbon leakage and of the policy instruments it should have to effectively tackle it
Trade Unions are increasingly concerned about the loss of jobs and investment in many important industrial sectors and see imports from non EU competitors – and the related dumping risk – as a concrete threat which could become even more serious in a scenario of unilateral deep decarbonisation strategy from the EU.
The mechanism to fight against carbon leakage, mainly based on the free allocation according to a reference level for each sector, which the Commission plans to extend whilst adjusting it to the margin, seems inadequate to us. For one, it does not provide a response to the main of driving forces behind relocations which include the price of raw materials, the weakness of internal demand, the development of important markets in other geographic areas, the import of cheap industrial goods from emerging economies and overcapacity in certain sectors. Furthermore, this mechanism provides only a very small incentive to invest in low-carbon production technologies. The system protects – often in an abusive manner – but does not provide sufficient incentives to invest and innovate. The ETUC consequently calls on the European co-legislators to consider alternative – and possibly complementary -- options to the free allocation and in particular those which rely on a taxation based on the carbon content of goods placed on the European Market, of which the exporting companies would be exempted, fully or partially.
The ETUC also demands that free allocations be reserved for sectors and sub-sectors that are actually exposed to a significant relocation risk, mainly driven by climate policies, and conditioned by the effective implementation of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the use of best available technologies as identified through the revision of benchmarks every five years. Additionally, the methodology used to make the carbon leakage list should use the real carbon price and not assumptions.
State aids are absolutely crucial, notably to compensate the indirect impact the ETS has through electricity price on industrial production costs. The use of state aids must be better coordinated at EU level since in the current situation, some Member States provide significant state aid to compensate the ETS impact on electricity price for industry whereas others do not compensate at all. Such compensation should be limited to the share of carbon cost which is not passed on to customers in order to avoid windfall profits.
Last but not least, the process whereby the Commission analyses demands to use state aids from the Member States must be as quick as possible.
The EU must create a Just Transition Fund to support workers which would be negatively impacted by the transition to a low-carbon economy
The ETUC regrets the weakness of the mechanisms presented in the Commission's proposal to support workers in regions that will be adversely affected by the transition to a low-carbon economy. The insertion of "training and the reassignment of workers affected by the transition" in Article 10 B of the proposal to amend the Directive, leaves the issue of whether to support the workers concerned entirely at the discretion of the Member States. Not only is said provision – which concerns the use of proceeds from the auctioning of emission quotas by Member States – not legally binding, but it also comprises a list of 12 possible assignments which make the actual support for such workers highly improbable. The ETUC therefore calls on the European co-legislators to consider other options to provide such workers with the support they need. A "Just Transition Fund," which would be intended to finance support measures for workers in regions and localities affected by the transition, could be fed in part from the structural funds and in part through the auctioning of a certain volume of emission permits. It should not, in any event, mobilise the resources of the European Social Fund, and it should be managed with the full participation of the social partners, as stipulated in the European Code of Conduct on the Partnership Principle.
The EU must effectively implement the Innovation Fund and the Modernisation Fund and involve the social partners in their management
Investment is one of the main levers of the transition to a low carbon economy. The ETUC very much endorses the creation of a fund for innovation which will boost the resources already available thanks to the existing financial instruments, and which is going to broaden the spectrum of eligible activities. The deployment of renewable energies and other low carbon industrial technologies are absolutely necessary in order to achieve the long-term goal of reducing emissions while maintaining a strong industrial base in Europe. Technologies such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), which allow on the one hand to drastically reduce emissions from power production and manufacturing industries, while on the other hand are compatible – among other processes – with fossil fuel combustion, have been identified by several reports as essential to reach long term deep emissions reduction targets. In order to get these technologies ready in regions and sectors where they are necessary to build credible long term deep emissions reduction pathways, the financial resources available should be dramatically increased. The innovation fund should contribute to that objective, but industries and member states who have identified these technologies as priorities should also contribute to provide the level of investment needed. However, the deployment of these technologies only makes sense where it is cost effective in a long term perspective compared to other measures and provided that it is consistent with long term emissions reduction objectives and with the strongest health and environment standards.
The Modernisation Fund, which is used to support the modernisation of the energy system of low-income Member States, is also a proposal that the ETUC welcomes inasmuch as it brings home the need for solidarity between European countries. The ETUC demands that these two funds be effectively implemented and that appropriate measures be taken to maximise the impact thereof, notably through a search for synergy with other EU financial instruments, in particular the EFSI.
At least 90 % of ETS auctioning revenues should be used by Member States to support activities which are clearly climate-related
The "just transition" supposes a fair sharing of the burden. The ETUC would not accept that measures taken to fight against a presumed risk of carbon leaks actually generate windfall profits for large industrial groups whilst exposing an increasing number of households to energy poverty. The measures that increase the quantity of emission quotas placed at the disposal of companies free of charge automatically reduce the volume of auctioning. This deprives the public authorities from sources of financing, and that in turn creates unfair profits for certain companies, whereas households cannot escape the repercussions of the price of emission quotas on their electricity bill. The ETUC shares the objective of protecting industrial activities significantly at risk of carbon leakage, but this must be done without exacerbating the distributive effects leading households to pay heavy industry's CO2 cost. In addition to the focus of free allocation for the sectors and subsectors really exposed to a risk of relocation driven by carbon cost, one way to mitigate the regressive impact of free allocation is to ensure that auctioning revenues benefit to society's as a whole and in particular should contribute to financing a just transition towards a low-carbon economy. The ETUC demands that the EU require Member States to devote at least 90% of the proceeds to activities which are clearly climate-related, and notably industrial low-carbon innovation, energy efficiency, training and upskilling programmes, measures against energy poverty and international climate finance. In this framework, Member States should be free to define the criteria for the selection of investments to be financed with the auctioning revenues they collect.
ETUC Position on structural reform of EU emissions trading system
In Industrial policy, Sustainable Development / Climate Change, Energy Policy, Climate Change and energy policy, Environment


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Operations Manager required in Suffolk. Paying £55,000- £65,000 per annum, 40 Hours Week.
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The Bethlehem Writers Roundtable 2022 Short Story Award
January 13, 2022 by Bethlehem Writers Group in category Contests, From a Cabin in the Woods by Members of Bethlehem Writers Group, Writing Contest tagged as #TheBWG, Bethlehem Writers Group, Bethlehem Writers Roundtable Short Story Award, Short Story Award, Th 2022 Short Story Award
BWG is working on their Seventh anthology, An Element of Mystery: Sweet, Funny, and Strange Tales of Intrigue.
In connection with this anthology, they are hosting The Bethlehem Writers 2022 Short Story Award.
The 2022 Short Story Award opened January 1, 2022. The theme is An Element of Mystery (broadly interpreted).
BWG is seeking never-published short stories of 2,000 words or fewer. First Place will receive $250 and publication in their upcoming anthology: An Element of Mystery: Sweet, Funny, and Strange Tales of Intrigue or in Bethlehem Writers Roundtable.
The final judge of the 2022 Short Story Award is New York Times best-selling author Kate Carlisle. You can read Katie's interview here.
Books from Bethlehem Writers Group, LLC
The Bethlehem Writers Group, LLC (BWG), founded in 2006, is a community of mutually supportive, fiction and nonfiction authors based in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. The members are as different from each other as their stories, spanning a range of genres including: children's, fantasy, humor, inspiration, literary, memoir, mystery, paranormal, romance, science fiction, women's fiction, and young adult.
See the schedule of meetings and events here.
A CHRISTMAS SAMPLER
AN ELEMENT OF MYSTERTY: SWEET, FUNNY, AND STRANGE TALES OF INTRIGUE
A READABLE FEAST
FUR, FEATHERS AND SCALES: Sweet, Funny, and Strange Animal Tales
OFF THE RAILS: A Collection of Weird, Wicked, & Wacky Stories
ONCE AROUND THE SUN
UNTETHERED: SWEET, FUNNY, AND STRANGE TALES OF THE PARANORMAL
Featured Author: Bethlehem Writers Group, LLC
January 7, 2022 by Bethlehem Writers Group in category Apples & Oranges by Marianne H. Donley, Contests, Featured Author of the Month tagged as #TheBWG, Bethlehem Writers Group, Bethlehem Writers Roundtable Short Story Award, Fur Feathers and Scales, new release, Short Story Award, Th 2022 Short Story Award
About Bethlehem Writers Group, LLC
The Bethlehem Writers Group, LLC (BWG), is a community of mutually supportive fiction and nonfiction authors based in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. The members are as different from each other as their stories. BWG also publishes quality fiction through their online literary journal, Bethlehem Writers Roundtable, and their award-winning A Sweet, Funny, and Strange Anthology series.
Each anthology has an overall theme—broadly interpreted—but includes a variety of genres. All but the first anthology include stories from the winner(s) of The Bethlehem Writers Short Story Award.
Their first anthology, A Christmas Sampler: Sweet, Funny, and Strange Holiday Tales (2009), won two Next Generation Indie Book Awards: Best Anthology and Best Short Fiction.
Fur, Feathers, and Scales: Sweet, Funny, and Strange Animal Tales is the latest in A Sweet, Funny, and Strange Anthology. BWG is proud to report this title also won two Next Generation Indie Book Awards: Best e-Book and Best Cover Design (Fiction).
About Fur, Feathers and Scales
The award-winning "Sweet, Funny, and Strange" series of anthologies from the Bethlehem Writers Group, continues with this collection of twenty-five tales about real, legendary, or imaginary animals. From snakes to ducks to unicorns, there are tales here to match any mood, provide a chuckle, or warm a heart.
Among our tales, Peter Barbour recounts a legend in "Why Bats Live in Caves," Jerome W. McFadden asks the question of what animal to choose to be in "Recycled," A. E. Decker shares an appreciation of cephalopods in "Tipping Point," Ralph Hieb imagines an unconventional pet in "Buttons," and Diane Sismour, in "Critter," reveals that mules are not the only equines that can have a stubborn streak.
In addition, we are happy to present the winning stories from the 20 I 9 and 2020 Bethlehem Writers Roundtable Short Story Awards. Angela Albertson, our 20I9 winner, shares her heartfelt "Oranges and Roses," and our 2020 winner, Brett Wolff, gives us a good laugh in "Hubbard Has a Fancy Bra."
This eclectic assemblage of stories includes terrific tales from beloved BWG authors including Courtney Annicchiarico, Jeff Baird, Jodi Bogert, Marianne H. Donley, DT Krippene, Emily P. W. Murphy, Christopher D. Ochs, Dianna Sinovic, Kidd Wadsworth, Paul Weidknecht, Carol L. Wright, and Will Wright.
So cuddle up with your favorite pet-real or imaginary. No matter. You'll find just the right story to share.
Next up for BWG
The 2022 Short Story Award will open on January 1, 2022. The theme will be An Element of Mystery (broadly interpreted).
The final judge of the 2022 Short Story Award is New York Times best-selling author Kate Carlisle
Happy Virtual Holiday! by Carol L. Wright
December 13, 2021 by Bethlehem Writers Group in category Writing
Each year, until 2020, our writers' group has enjoyed getting together toward the end of every year to simply enjoy food, games, and each other's company. But of course, that hasn't been possible during the pandemic. What's more, several of our members have moved to be closer to family in other parts of the country since Covid-19 made it harder to travel.
Fortunately, technology has allowed our group to continue to hold our regular meetings virtually. There's very little we cannot do on Zoom that we could do in person. We still read each other's work and offer critiques. We still root for each other as we submit our work. We still plan group projects and publish our quarterly literary journal, Bethlehem Writers Roundtable. We still run our annual Short Story Award competition. (In fact, our 2022 contest opens on January 1 with the theme "An Element of Mystery." Get your stories of 2000 words or fewer ready to win cash and publication.)
But these are all things we can do from our separate locations without having to be face-to-face. Can we really have a fun holiday party that way? How would we play games? How could we exchange gifts?
There's a reason holiday parties are so popular. Neighbors, businesses, and yes, writers' groups have them for much the same reasons. They are a way of marking the progress of time. Another year has passed, and we can take a moment to sit back and relax, socialize, and reflect on all we have accomplished over the past twelve months. Friendship, loyalty, and trust are important for productive and fruitful relationships, and each is enhanced by having social relationships—not just work relationships. We rejoice with each other when things go well, help each other where we can, and care for each other during the tougher days when just being there is all we can do.
So, this year, we're going to have our holiday party again—despite being spread over eight states and four time zones. How? you ask. Well, we've figured out a way.
We will meet on Zoom, but each wear our party clothes—or ugly sweaters—and instead of bringing food to share, we'll bring snacks to enjoy.
We have traditionally had a game or two at our parties. One has usually been a trivia game, but that's hard in a virtual setting. Fortunately, I found a PowerPoint or Google Slides template for a Jeopardy-style game at: https://www.slidescarnival.com/jeopardy-free-presentation-template/11277. You can easily create the categories that are right for your group. A reading group might want questions about literature—or even the books read over the previous year. A writers' group might have columns such as Grammar Goofs or Copyeditor's Marks. A knitters' group could include Tell Me a Yarn. (Actually, a storytellers' group could do that, too.) For a group with members who observe many different holidays this time of year, there can be a category for each one. All the emcee needs to do is run an internet search for trivia about needlework or grammar or Shakespeare or Kwanzaa and write the questions. Then, with a shared screen, everyone should have a chance to play along. No buzzers—especially for a large group, but each person who comes up with the right "question" can credit themselves with the appropriate number of points. Then whoever amasses the most points can win the honor of going first in the gift exchange. (Here's where that mutual trust thing kicks in.)
The most problematic aspect of a virtual party, of course is a long-distance gift exchange. In other years we did a round-robin exchange where each memer drew a number from a hat. The one with #1 selects a gift from the pile and opens it. Then #2 goes next and has the option of taking the gift #1 opened or opening a new one. If #2 takes the first gift, #1 gets to open a new gift. Then #3 can steal either of the opened gifts or unwrap one that is still in the pile. And so on. Then, after everyone has a gift, #1 has a last chance to swap with anyone they choose. It's nice being #1.
Well, with no central location, no pile of gifts, this year we're not only randomly handing out numbers, each gift is assigned a letter. This year, we lowered the total value of the gifts for the exchange to allow us to ship items to each other without it all costing more than previous years.
Our party is tomorrow, and we hope it will be a worthy substitute for our prior celebrations—just as we hope, whether you're able to come together in person or just virtually with your friends, colleagues, and family, that you and yours have a festive and healthy holiday season and a productive and happy new year.
Carol L. Wright escaped a career in law and academia for one in writing. She loves creating her Gracie McIntyre mysteries where, unlike in life, justice always prevails. The first in the series, DEATH IN GLENVILLE FALLS, was a finalist for both a 2018 Killer Nashville Silver Falchion Award and a 2018 Next Generation Indie Book Award. She also writes short stories in many genres that have been published in a variety of literary journals and award-winning anthologies. She has compiled some of her favorites in A CHRISTMAS ON NANTUCKET and other stories, published in 2019. To find out more , visit her website at: http://CarolLWright.com.
Happy Hallothanksgivingmas by D. T. Krippene
November 13, 2021 by Bethlehem Writers Group in category From a Cabin in the Woods by Members of Bethlehem Writers Group tagged as Christmas, DT Krippene, Hallothanksgivingmas, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Traditions
In case you missed it, Halloween was the starting gun for blubber season. Nothing like ingesting bags of candy to get things rolling. If you were diet-conscious, bars of hyperactive-inducing sugar were available in "mini" sizes – an oxymoron if ever there was. Local stores stocked shelves in August, but those who waited until the first of October to purchase might have been disappointed. Space was needed to make room for Christmas decorations.
What happened to Thanksgiving? People already have their Christmas trees up before the turkey is bought. When did it become the norm to play holiday music before we've had a chance to scrape egg off the front door because we left the lights off on Halloween? I feel as if all three holidays have been smooshed together, with Thanksgiving wedged between the others as a wannabe.
Thanksgiving is the day we're expected to watch a New York City parade with inane commentary and vintage cartoon characters nobody remembers. We see relatives that hadn't graced our door for a year, then remember later why. It's a sacred celebration where the arrangement of food on an individual plate becomes a science, and we gorge like our prehistoric forbearers when they felled a mammoth. Would you like leg meat or trunk?
Food offerings are as varied and quirky as our relatives. What is left on the plate when finished, like Aunt Mildred's cranberry-scrapple gelatin mold, returns every year so everyone can hate it all over again. The meal is often mid-day, to allow for slumbering digestion to the spa-like sounds of slamming athletic helmets on TV, followed by an encore visit to the kitchen. Always lots of cranberry-scrapple gelatin left.
I put some of the blame on conscientious health fanatics who chagrin our tendency for culinary excess. We live in a time of Paleo diets and CrossFit training. Paleo is defined as what our prehistoric ancestors foraged before animal husbandry and agriculture, which to me, suggests anything that moved was fair game. CrossFit is defined as a conditioning program that employs "constantly varied functional movements executed at high intensity across broad modal and time domains." I've always thought of the annual gorge as a high-intensity workout, but since it doesn't occur across broad time and modal domains, I'm guessing it doesn't count.
Maybe what we need is a different kind of Thanksgiving event that appeals to people like me whose exercise regimen consists of rolling out of bed. Let's call it the Blubber Trot. Participants hop about with flabs of steel barely contained by Kevlar reinforced spandex. The first hundred finishers get to be first in line at the communal Horn-of-Plenty table. Those who don't finish have to watch Hunger Games without popcorn. Paying spectators will be allowed to wander the leftover carnage and ask, "Are you going to eat that?"
As always, I'll be flexing my Thanksgiving consumption with extreme prejudice. Once I'm done filling my gastrointestinal cistern with enough calories to heat a small city, I'll need a solid concrete cap on that toxic well. I'm going for the pumpkin cheesecake.
Hats off to the intrepid writers immersed in NaNoWriMo. I hope your hard-working efforts don't result in a take-out Thanksgiving meal or relegated to turkey sandwiches with a side order of cranberry sauce that retains the shape of the can it came in.
Happy Hallothanksgivingmas to one and all.
Anthologies with D. T. Krippene's Stories
A native of Wisconsin and Connecticut, DT Krippene deserted aspirations of being a biologist to live the corporate dream and raise a family. After six homes, a ten-year stint in Asia, and an imagination that never slept, his annoying muse refuses to be hobbled as a mere dream. Dan writes dystopia, paranormal, and science fiction. His current project is about a young man struggling to understand why he was born in a time when humans are unable to procreate and knocking on extinction's door.
You can find DT on his website and his social media links.
Other books from Bethlehem Writers Group
Oh Dear—There Goes Another Member of Our Town!
October 13, 2021 by Bethlehem Writers Group in category From a Cabin in the Woods by Members of Bethlehem Writers Group tagged as A Sarah Blair Mystery, cabot cove cyndrome, Debra H Goldstein, small town mysteries
When one writes a series, no matter what the genre, which repeatedly uses the same community or town as its setting, readers eventually begin to fear for the lives of anyone visiting or living there. Their fear makes them question the reality of the world the writer is creating. This problem is often referred to as Cabot Cove Syndrome. The fictional syndrome, whose name was coined from the television show, Murder She Wrote, is attributed to the finding of bodies repeatedly in the small town of Cabot Cove, Maine. After running for twelve years, not to mention the books and movies the show spawned, the BBC calculated Cabot Cove's murder rate at 1490 per million, which translated to about two percent of its residents.
Number like that, if the town existed, would definitely make one leery of spending time in Cabot Cove. Readers feel the same way when reading a series. They want a cast of repeated characters who become like family, but they also want the character roster expanded enough that the dead victim(s) and the guilty party aren't always characters introduced for the first time in that book. Consequently, to keep readers attracted to a series, authors must employ different methods to vary their stories.
Obviously, the town can easily be avoided by having the protagonist take a trip. That may work well in a thriller or suspense novel, but not in a cozy where the small town setting itself becomes a character. Neither Murder She Wrote nor Louise Penney's books would be the same if they weren't repeatedly set in Cabot Cove or Three Pines.
Another method is to introduce characters in minor roles and let them evolve in subsequent books in the series. For example, in One Taste Too Many, the first book in my Sarah Blair series, I introduced Grace Winston as a culinary student interning with Sarah's sister, Chef Emily. Grace has several scenes in One Taste where readers learn about her personality, health, and history. Because Grace is referenced again in Two Bites Too Many, she remains one of many familiar characters in the reader's mind. Her scenes become important in Three Treats Too Many, where Grace is now the sous chef for Emily's restaurant. In fact, the title of the book comes from an idea she raises with Emily, Sarah, and Emily's boyfriend, Marcus, during a menu brainstorming session. Although she still is a secondary character, the reader learns about Grace's partner and sees Grace caught in a culinary job dilemma between restaurant rivals.
Four Cuts Too Many begins a few days after Three Treats Too Many ends. Grace's dilemma is the impetus for a meeting between Sarah and Grace. Within pages, the reader sees Grace's role expand as now, besides being a sous chef for Emily, Grace is teaching a knife skills course at the community college. After she has a run-in with her department head and he is found dead with one of her knives protruding from his neck, Grace becomes the primary suspect.
The importance of Grace taking a major role in Four Cuts Too Many is that her character is known and liked by readers. Consequently, they want Sarah to help vindicate Grace. Although the corpse may be someone new to the community, there is enough familiarity for the story to feel like a continuous extension of a discussion between friends. This developed continuity and affection for the characters is what lets readers suspend the impact Cabot Cove Syndrome might have.
For a chance to win a print or e-book copy of Four Cuts Too Many (U.S. only), tell me, how do you feel about Cabot Cove Syndrome in the books you read?
Four Cuts Too Many
Sarah Blair, who finds kitchens more frightening than murder, gets an education in slicing and dicing when someone in her friend's culinary school serves up a main corpse. Sarah soon finds that there's no time to mince words when it comes to finding the real killer.
Includes quick and easy recipes!
Judge Debra H. Goldstein writes Kensington's Sarah Blair mystery series. Her short stories and novels have been Agatha, Anthony, Derringer, and Silver Falchion finalists. Debra is on the national board of MWA and is president of SEMWA. She previously was on Sisters in Crime's national board and was the Guppy Chapter president.
Learn more about Debra at https://www.DebraHGoldstein.com .
More Books by Debra H. Goldstein
DAY OF THE DARK
FIVE BELLES TOO MANY
THREE TREATS TOO MANY
TWO BITES TOO MANY
THE ONLY ROAD
Sometimes flight is the only option.
MISTLETOE & MAYHEM: A REGENCY HOLIDAY ROMANCE ANTHOLOGY
There's no Christmas like a Regency Christmas spent under mistletoe! New York Times Bestselling author Cheryl Bolen and friends invite you to discover true love in eleven deliciously steamy romances in this all-new holiday collection.
TEMPTED BY A TEXAN
Her Knight In Shining Armor Came Armed With A Colt .45
A chilling thriller that explores what happens when reality and nightmares converge, and how far one will go to protect the innocent when their own brain is a threat.
DIAMOND LEGACY
Diamonds ruined his life and he's on a path of revenge.


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Q: How to alter a try-catch exception to catch a number not within the requested range OR a number within the requested range that is a decimal? I am writing a large program that is supposed to eventually serve as a lemonade stand game. I have 6 different classes for this project. Currently, I have two small problems with the menu class that I created to output the initial menu of the game.
My first question is it the printf is formatted correctly.
My main question is how I would alter the try catch exception so that it will catch a user input that is not within the range I requested (1-3) or that is a decimal within that range(2.5). Possibly a try catch exception won't work in this scenario (although that is what my teacher asked us to do).
Here is a portion of my menu class (the portion with the problems):
     public int initialMenu()
{

    boolean getValues = true;

    while (getValues){

    try{

    System.out.println("Welcome to the Lemonade Stand Game!");
    System.out.println("How many days would you like to run your lemonade stand for?");
    System.out.printf("%3s\t%3s%n%3s\t%3s%n%3s\t%3s%n", "Enter 1:" , "10 days", "Enter 2:", "20 days", "Enter 3:", "30 days"); //change this
    userEnteredNumber = reader.nextInt();

    }

    catch(Exception e) //how to change try catch exception so that it will catch < 1 or > 3 or a decimal input
    {
        System.out.println("Error in number format. Enter a valid number from the choices (1,2,3)");
    }

Thank you very much for your help.

A: You will have to detect the various conditions and then throw the exceptions yourself. You do not test exceptions for specific values that might have triggered them.
You don't necessarily have to define new Exception types, for instance, you might decide that something that is out of range should throw an IllegalArgumentException.
Then you can add a catch for each specific exception type, if you want to have different recovery strategies for each.

A: To answer your question in the most generic sense, yes there is an error in the printf.
Please don't use StackOverflow to ask for help with homework.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


An object defining a parameter to a function, property, and so on.
The CodeParameter object represents formal parameters of a function definition.
Gets a collection of the attributes for the parent object.
Gets a collection of objects contained within this code construct.
Gets the collection containing the CodeParameter object supporting this property.
Gets or sets the literal value that exists in the code.
Gets or sets the document comment for the current code model element.
Gets the edit point that is the location of the end of the code item.
Gets the requested Extender if it is available for the CodeParameter object.
Gets the Extender category ID (CATID) for the CodeParameter object.
Gets the full path and name of the object's file.
Gets a value indicating whether a CodeType object can be obtained from this CodeParameter object.
Gets an enumeration indicating the type of object.
Gets the programming language used to author the code.
Gets or sets the name of the object.
Gets the immediate parent object of a CodeParameter object.
Gets the ProjectItem associated with the given object.
Gets a TextPoint object that defines the beginning of the code item.
Gets or sets an object representing the programmatic type.
Gets a TextPoint object that defines the beginning of the code element definition.


text:
Kermadekovy ostrovy (někdy také Kermadecké ostrovy) je skupina šesti sopečných ostrůvků (tzv. ostrovní oblouk) v jižní části Tichého oceánu v polovině cesty mezi státy Nový Zéland a Tonga. Rozloha souostroví je 33 km², z toho celých 29 km² připadá na největší ostrov Raoul (také zvaný Nedělní ostrov), kde se nachází i nejvyšší hora, 516 m n. m. vysoká Moumoukai Peak. Další ostrovy jsou Macauley, Curtis, Nugent, L'Esperance Rock a L'Havre Rock. V současnosti jsou ostrovy obydleny zhruba deseti zaměstnanci meteorologické stanice, turisté mají na ně zakázán vstup. Administrativně jsou Kermadekovy ostrovy přidruženým územím Nového Zélandu.

Historie
Na ostrovech se usazovali Maoři už od 10. století, ale když je roku 1788 objevil francouzský kapitán Jean-Marie Huon de Kermadec, byly neobydlené. V průběhu 19. století se na ostrovech pokoušeli usadit různí dobrodruzi, ale v roce 1937 bylo souostroví prohlášeno za chráněné území a lidé i domácí zvířata byli vystěhováni.

Přírodní podmínky
Ostrovy mají subtropické klima, teploty se pohybují od 16 °C do 23 °C. Ročně zde spadne průměrně 1500 mm srážek. Zdejší vegetace zahrnuje množství endemických druhů, jako je pohutukawa. Východně od ostrovů se nachází Kermadecký příkop, jedno z nejhlubších míst světového oceánu.

Externí odkazy

 http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/res/kermadec/index.htm
 http://newzealand.webnode.cz/pridruzena-uzemi-a-ostrovy/kermadecovy-ostrovy/

Souostroví Nového Zélandu
Souostroví Tichého oceánu
Administrativní dělení Nového Zélandu


text:
A Different Side of Africa
Namibia is a place of great contrasts, with its soaring red desert dunes, endless horizons, expansive coastlines, and the shimmering salt pans of Etosha National Park. Discover a land in Africa where the cities and landscapes are as stunning and wonderful as the wildlife. Read more...
Namibia safaris
Curated by our experts
Namibian Adventure
Namibian Experience
Botswana - Safari, Conservation & Community
Our Top Must See Namibia Locations
The unique Etosha National Park's main characteristic is a salt pan so large it can be seen from space. Read more...
Sossusvlei is possibly Namibia's most spectacular and best-known attraction. Characterized by the massive red dunes that are some of the highest in the world. Read more...
Windhoek is a modern, well-ordered city where office workers frequent sidewalk cafes at lunch time, and tourists stroll through Post Street Mall admiring African curios. Read more...
Sandwiched between the ocean and the Namib Desert, Swakopmund, a coastal town in central Namibia, is one of the most popular places in the country for travelers to visit. Read more...
Skeleton Coast National Park is the world's largest ship cemetery. It is a 25-mile wide and 310-mile-long coastal stretch in Namibia. The name was most probably derived from the huge numbers of stranded whales that lost their lives here and whose skeletons could be seen all over the place. Read more...
Namibia Testimonial
"This trip fulfilled our fondest hopes. The accommodations were lovely and the arrangements made by Lion World were simply unbeatable ... Our guides were knowledgeable, kind and showed a real appreciation for the animals, terrain and for us the tourists..."
Read More On Tripadvisor
MORE JOURNEYS & PLACES
to excite the senses
2023 Vacation Packages
View more safaris and vacations to Kenya, Tanzania, South Africa, Rwanda and Victoria Falls.
The best safaris for solo travelers.
Looking for ways to save? View our current offers.
Namibia is to be experienced through its expansive coastlines, soaring red dunes of the desert and the shimmering salt pans of Etosha. Witness the flora and fauna that are incredible in their variety and adaptation to desert life.
Some of the most breathtaking experiences that one can have in Namibia are in the Kunene region, where travelers are able to witness unique desert adapted animals such as elephants and black rhinos.
A list of the must see attractions in Namibia have been made below. Interested in travelling with Lion World Travel, check out some of our exclusive Namibia trips.
Top 3 Must See Namibia Locations
Etosha National Park is a world renown wildlife viewing park, enabling visitors to spend many days looking for incredible wildlife in a unique landscape – a dream destination for photographers! The strength of Etosha National Park lies in its ability to bring the animals to its guests.
Situated in the largest conservation area in Africa, Sossusvlei is possibly Namibia's most spectacular and best-known attraction. Characterized by the large red dunes that surround it.
The dunes in this area are some of the highest in the world, reaching almost 400 meters, which provides those photgraphy lovers ample opportunity to snap some beautiful imagery, especially during the beautiful morning sunrise (trust us it is beautiful).
The capital city of Namibia lies in a wide valley surrounded by a range of mountains which include the Khomas Highland, Auas mountains and Eros mountains.
Windhoek is at the heart of Namibia's modern civilization as it fuels the national economy in culture, economics and politics. It also happens to be a social and travel hub for a variety of African safari travelers.
Windhoek still retains a strong sense of European influences with it's variety of colonial architecture, sidewalk cafes and western cuisine, which adds to the distinctive character of this pleasant African city.
What are people saying about our Namibia safari's
"This trip fulfilled our fondest hopes. The accommodations were lovely and the arrangements made by Lion World were simply unbeatable. Even my lost camera could not dim my enthusiasm for Botswana.
What an amazing country. Our guides were knowledgeable, kind and showed a real appreciation for the animals, terrain and for us the tourists. We made a short trip to Namibia for a village tour that gave us a glimpse of the daily life of some of the peoples of this evolving continent".
Barbara P. (Via Tripadvisor)
Click to see what guests are saying about our trips.
Contact a Namibia travel specialist to find the best option for you.
Temperature (ºC) – These are the average lows and highs:
WDH
17/30 17/29 15/27 13/25 9/22 7/20 7/20 8/23 12/26 14/29 16/29 17/31
12/22 14/23 12/23 9/22 8/22 8/22 7/21 6/19 7/19 8/19 10/21 11/22
Temperature (ºF) – These are the average lows and highs:
Average Rainfall (inches) – This varies according to the year and location:
1.7 2.1 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 3.7
* WDH - Windhoek
SWP - Swakopmund


text:
The impact of China's anti-corruption drive
We now have some data confirming that China's anti-corruption drive (discussed here) is indeed responsible for at least a part of the recent economic weakness. Catering sales for large enterprises suddenly plunged earlier this year. Cutbacks in extravagant welcoming parties for central government officials, which drove down catering sales, also created a dip in the overall retail sales.
Source: Goldman
This anti-corruption directive has become more of a campaign against hedonism by public officials - and often less about the actual corruption.
Jing Daily: - The current campaign is the latest iteration of a long-running effort to combat "the illnesses – formalism, bureaucracy and hedonism" in the ranks of elite Communist Party leadership. Thus, the crackdown is not merely a utilitarian attack on China's troublesome scourge of corruption itself, but also clearly focuses on the aesthetics of impropriety within the ranks of provincial officials.
Clearly, these are positive developments for China, but it's not known just how effective the anti-corruption efforts really are at this stage. With a weak court system that is often no more than a puppet of the Communist Party, it seems that officials continue to enrich themselves at public's expense. Only now they are being asked not to flaunt their wealth (which some wealthy people have been doing - see example). In fact activists who are pushing for disclosure of public officials' finances are being muzzled.
VOA: - Chinese authorities have detained eight anti-corruption activists over their participation in a signature drive that calls on central government officials to disclose their assets. Although there is widespread public support for officials to disclose such information, government efforts to promote the policy appear to be slowing.
Rights lawyers in Beijing say the activists have been taken into custody in recent days on suspicion of unlawful assembly.
As far as the impact on China's overall economy, most expect the effect of these measures to be short-lived. Given the somewhat superficial nature of the program, it's only a matter of time before China's wealthy officials begin spending again.
Draghi will act to avoid deflationary spiral
The ECB will have no choice but to ease monetary policy and possibly prepare for more drastic actions. The Eurozone is facing a growing risk of deflation - similar to Japan. Once the inflation rate in Japan fell below 1%, the external shock of the Asian currency crisis (late 90s) sent Japan into a deflationary spiral - something the nation is still dealing with today. The Eurozone may end up facing a similar scenario.
Danske Bank: - Europe is heading into a deflationary scenario if they don't do anything to boost the money supply. This already looks very similar to what happened in Japan in 1996 and 1997."
Source: CNN
Growth in consumer lending has come to a crawl as bank deleveraging continues. With retail credit growth curtailed, corporations have no pricing power. Signs of deflationary pressures are already in place.
Reuters: - EU leaders are already trying to shift away from the budget cuts that have dominated the response to the debt crisis since 2009, and the data will raise the specter of deflation as companies slash prices to entice shoppers.
Eurozone consumer loan growth (source: ECB)
Of course just like Japan, the Eurozone may face rising public sector debt, as austerity is put on the back burner. In fact many in Europe now blame the austerity drive by Germany for the deflationary risks the region currently faces.
Business Spectator: - Eurozone divisions over austerity policies championed by Germany have deepened as Italy's new government joined France in demanding a change of direction for the crisis-hit bloc.
Italy's new centre-left Prime Minister Enrico Letta told parliament on Monday that the country was "dying from austerity alone", and France voiced optimism that the political tide was turning in favour of critics of austerity.
"In terms of growth policies, Francois Hollande will now have a stronger voice and be less isolated in Europe," France's minister for Europe, Thierry Repentin, told AFP.
Letta's direct challenge to the tough belt-tightening that Germany and its allies have advocated as the answer to the single currency zone's debt crisis follows criticism of the eurozone's direction from the International Monetary Fund.
Whatever the case, the ECB will have to act in order to avoid the dangers of a deflationary spiral, which could take the Eurozone years (or even decades) to exit. This article from the FT lists Draghi's possible actions this week, representing a fairly limited set of choices (rate cut, forward guidance, easing collateral requirements for banks to borrow from the Eurosystem, and outright purchases of debt linked to "small and medium sized companies"). Something will need to happen to prevent the Eurozone from looking increasingly more like Japan.
A slowdown in US lending or a ramp up in shadow banking?
We've received a number of emails pointing to what looks like a slowdown in lending by US-chartered banks. The amount of loans and leases on balance sheets of US banks has stopped growing.
As in 2009 and 2011, some people are upset to see record levels of bank excess reserves that are not being turned into loans. These are deposits at the Fed earning 25bp and people are asking why banks are not lending more of this capital out.
But what exactly caused the loan growth on banks' balance sheets to stall? More precisely, what types of loan balances are no longer growing? It turns out that while commercial and industrial loans continue to grow - in fact accelerating - the growth in retail mortgage balances has stalled. And that's the explanation for the flat-lining of the overall loan balances (the first chart above).
Fixed maturity mortgages on US banks' balance sheets (source: FRB; not seasonally adjusted)
"Aha", some economists would say. Banks are not extending as much credit in the mortgage space as they should, which is slowing down the economy. Those evil zombie banks...
The real answer however has to do with the wonderful world of "shadow banking". Why would banks want to keep all these mortgages on their books when they can blow them out to Freddie and Fannie, who in turn sell them to the market in the form of agency MBS (mortgage backed securities). And who are the buyers? The usual suspects of course - insurance firms, mutual funds, etc., as well as the biggest buyer of them all - the Fed. In fact the holdings of MBS on Fed's balance sheet just hit a record. Mortgages are simply making their way from banks' balance sheets onto the Fed's balance sheet in the form of MBS.
Source: FRB (unit = USD million)
The data from Freddie and Fannie confirms this trend, with the first quarter of this year showing the largest net MBS issuance volume in two years. As much as people don't like to think about it this way, Freddie and Fannie are the biggest "shadow banks" around.
The last time we had a spike in MBS issuance in early 2011, mortgage balances at banks declined, as banks did some "spring cleaning".
But what about loans that are not Freddie and Fannie eligible? Those should still be sitting on banks' balance sheets, right? Not exactly. The private side of shadow banking is now kicking into gear, particularly in the so-called jumbo loans (mortgages too large to qualify for the GSEs).
Inside Mortgage Finance: - The private-label market is "showing new signs of life," according to Standard & Poor's, which predicted that banks are likely to increase their securitization of jumbo mortgages. In a report released late last week, S&P projected $14 billion in non-agency jumbo MBS in 2013. Redwood alone set a goal of issuing $7 billion in non-agency MBS this year and is on pace to exceed that volume, helped by a pending $425 million deal, its sixth of the year. PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is also aiming to issue a non-agency jumbo MBS in the Redwood mold in the third quarter of 2013.
The demand for fixed income product has manifested itself in the so-called "private-label" MBS, allowing banks to securitize mortgages that don't qualify for Freddie and Fannie. Once again, it's not about lending less - which is how some economists are reading the first chart above. It's about originating product, collecting fees, and then selling into the hot securitization market - public or private. And taking those loans off the balance sheet creates room to do it all over again (the "recycling" of capital.) As one banker put it, "I want to be in the origination and fee business, not in long-term warehousing ..."
Just how polarized is the US Congress?
The public is often amazed at Washington's inability to solve problems. Some have attributed that constant impasse to polarization in Congress - with very little overlap in attitudes across the party lines. But is this truly something new or just more media hype?
The data seems to indicate that polarization is definitely sharper now than in the past and is particularly acute in the House of Representatives.
Here is the level of "ideological overlap" twenty years ago:
Source: Credit Suisse
And here it is now (notice the bump on the very right of the Republican Party):
The US Senate is also more polarized than in the past but not nearly as strongly as the House. The question of course is whether this polarization level is unique or have the parties been this divided in the past? According to Voteview.com, the polarization is at record levels since at least the end of the Civil War - even in the Senate.
Furthermore, the number of so-called "moderates" in each party is near record lows.
Those looking for a quick resolution to the pressing budged problems, don't bet on it. Washington's perpetual impasse is here to stay.
Egypt's economic woes becoming acute
The Washington Post recently published a story on Egypt's growing black market, which is rapidly replacing the "official" economy.
WP: - Egypt's rapidly expanding black market for fuel — and for foodstuffs, other commodities and U.S. dollars — may be the most tangible illustration of just how badly the economy of this vast Arab nation is failing, two years after the fall of Hosni Mubarak.
The prices of most basic goods, like fuel and flour, have been fixed for decades, with Egypt pouring roughly a quarter of its GDP into a bloated and deeply inefficient national subsidy system each year.
As foreign reserves run dangerously low, access to fuel is becoming particularly critical. To prevent a complete economic collapse in Egypt, Libya has stepped in to give support until the long-awaited IMF loan is put in place. Libya is in effect providing an interest-free oil loan for a year as a stop-gap measure.
Reuters: - Libya will soon start shipping oil to neighboring Egypt on soft credit terms, two senior Libyan officials said, as Cairo struggles to pay for energy imports and avoid fuel shortages.
The officials told Reuters that Tripoli would supply Cairo with $1.2 billion worth of crude at world prices but on interest free credit for a year, with the first cargo expected to arrive next month.
Egypt's officials continue to emphasize that the IMF loan deal is just around the corner.
Egypt's Official Press: - The Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) said that measures required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Egypt to obtain a loan are normal and followed all over the world.
During an interview with CBC satellite channel on Saturday 27/4/2013, Hisham Ramez said that an agreement with the IMF to get the loan is about to be concluded.
The IMF loan has other dimensions because it opens the door for borrowing from other bodies, Ramez said.
But that could be wishful thinking. Egypt just suffered a major setback, as its key negotiator quit today.
Reuters: - A key Egyptian negotiator with the International Monetary Fund said on Sunday he has resigned as first deputy finance minister, in a potential blow to Cairo's prospects of an early IMF deal.
Hany Kadry Dimian has been the crucial point man in Egypt's protracted and so far fruitless negotiations to obtain a $4.8 billion loan needed to help combat a severe economic crisis.
Kadry gave no explanation for his decision to quit, first reported on the Egyptian dissident Rebel Economy blog, saying he would say more on Tuesday.
A senior European diplomat said his departure was not a good omen for Egypt's hopes of wrapping up a deal on the long delayed IMF loan next month, as the government has said it aims to do.
There has been speculation that Qatar will step in to help Egypt with a $3bn loan, but so far that support hasn't materialized. Furthermore, many Egyptians are uneasy with Qatar and view it as meddling in the nation's internal affairs.
According to official sources in Egypt, foreign reserves now stand at $13.4 billion, while foreign debt is at $38.8 billion (up 13% from previous year).
As summer approaches, the risks of violent civil unrest rise sharply. This year Ramadan will be in July, the hottest month of the year. Power outages are expected to be quite frequent and shortages of bread and fuel could become an issue. With Syria becoming the recent focus of mass media, Egypt's issues have not been widely covered. Yet in the near future, Egypt's woes present a major source of uncertainty in the Middle East.
Cyclical stocks underperform in April
Emerging markets cyclical stocks have been trailing defensive shares for some time, as investors stay uneasy about global growth.
Barron's: - While the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has a price/earnings ratio of 10.3 times the next 12 months of earnings, the average "cyclical" stock, whose earnings are linked to the strength of the global economy, has seen its valuation fall to 9.6 times. The average "defensive" stock, meanwhile, has a P/E ratio of 15.1 times. The 5.5-point gap between the two is more than twice the average of 2.7 points since 1995, according to UBS data, and it's been at least that high for the last six months.
But now, in another sign of the "spring slowdown" (discussed here), US cyclical shares - which have been beating the market through most of 2013 - have underperformed in April.
Source: Ycharts (click to enlarge)
Similarly to emerging markets, US defensive share valuations have been quite lofty on a relative (and one could argue absolute) basis. Now this gap is widening further.
This is one of the reasons economists are so focused on China. The nation's growth and its impact on global demand for natural resources will be the key determinant of a number of cyclical shares' relative performance going forward. So far investors haven't been impressed.
Update: CS published an excellent chart showing how the latest upturn in the market was led by defensive shares.
What happens to workers who drop out of the labor force?
In spite of some improvements in the US job markets, labor force participation continues to decline.
The seasonality is driven by higher labor demand during warmer months (construction for example) or student summer jobs
The traditional explanation of course is that people are discouraged by the lack of job opportunities and are simply "dropping out" of the labor force after having exhausted their unemployment benefits. But that's easier said than done. Most people need some sort of income to survive - so where does that income come from? A portion of the decline can be explained by households with two incomes going to one. But that's by no means all of it. Let's explore some recent trends that may explain what's really going on.
1. One common explanation is older workers retiring earlier and dropping out of the workforce. There is some anecdotal evidence for early retirement but the data doesn't support it. While participation rate by workers 55 years and older is not growing at the rate it did during the boom years, it's not declining either - which means it can't explain the declines in the chart above. Many people simply can't afford to retire.
2. Another explanation is that young people who can't find work are going to school. This trend is definitely contributing to the reduction in the overall participation rate. And the source of "income" for this group is of course the federal government in the form of student loans. Government-owned student loan balances continue to rise, as people "wait it out" at school while accumulating massive debt.
3. Another source of falling "official" employment participation is the unregistered workforce, as more people get paid "under the table". Indeed the underground economy is estimated to be at $2 trillion per year.
CNBC: - The shadow economy is a system composed of those who can't find a full-time or regular job. Workers turn to anything that pays them under the table, with no income reported and no taxes paid — especially with an uneven job picture.
"I think the underground economy is quite big in the U.S.," said Alexandre Padilla, associate professor of economics at Metropolitan State University of Denver. "Whether it's using undocumented workers or those here legally, it's pretty large."
4. Finally, nearly nine million people are now receiving social security disability checks. When unemployment checks run out, some people (nearly a quarter) shift to this other source of income (discussed here). This is certainly an important program, but it's amazing how many people get "injured" while they are on unemployment. The improving labor markets did reduce the growth rate of this group, but the number of people on disability continues to increase much faster than the population growth.
Source: SSA
Whether it's the spouse, the underground economy or the federal government providing the income, there is "life" after the unemployment checks stop coming. Meanwhile, the "official" labor participation rate keeps falling.
With deflation in BOJ's crosshairs, the yen is sure to weaken further
In spite of all the recent stimulus talk, Bank of Japan continues to battle deflation.
NY Times: - Deflation remains firmly entrenched in Japan, figures showed Friday, as the central bank projected that its targeted level for inflation was still some years off, underscoring that there are no quick fixes for one of the world's largest economies.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who took office last December, has made the fight against deflation — the damaging fall in prices, profits and wages that has dogged Japan for most of the past 15 years — a main part of his economic policy. He pressed the central bank to commit to a target of 2 percent annual inflation, considered by many economists a healthy level.
The yen strengthened by over a percent today, driven mostly by weak US first quarter GDP reading of 2.5% (vs. 3.1% expected). But this yen strength is unlikely to persist. Given Japan's deflationary pressures and the government's commitment to address the situation, the BOJ will press the pedal on monetary expansion. And in a race against the Fed, the BOJ is ultimately expected to "win" (see discussion). It's only a matter of weeks before USD/JPY breaks above 100 as the yen continues to march along its weakening trend.
Yen per one dollar
Where are all the construction jobs?
The concept of US housing shortage (discussed here) is difficult to fathom, but people who are on the transaction side of the housing business are beginning to take notice.
Bloomberg: - Wells Fargo Chief Executive Officer John Stumpf said there aren't enough homes for sale in some markets and that a rebound in sales, prices and construction will bolster future earnings.
"If anything today there's probably a shortage of housing on the market," Stumpf, 59, said on a conference call today. "It's not true in every market and in every price range but when I'm out talking with Realtors and customers, the amount of supply, especially in the lower end or starter houses, there's not a lot of supply out there."
The various demographics-based data such as homes for sale as a fraction of working age population (below) clearly supports this assessment.
This demand is starting to have an effect on US housing starts, which are still at relatively depressed levels but are showing signs of life.
Given the improvements in housing starts, where are all the new construction jobs?
Ignoring the various seasonal adjustments (which are fairly unreliable in this sector), the raw data shows construction job openings above 2009 levels but by no means on a major growth trajectory.
Similarly, the 2013 trend in the overall residential construction jobs in the US is not materially different from other post-crisis years. The chart below includes 2006 to put hings in perspective.
Source: US Department of Labor (NSA)
It seems that some construction firms have been operating with enough slack to absorb new construction orders without a great deal of additional hiring. As the peak construction season approaches however, it remains to be seen if this post-crisis pattern of weak hiring changes substantially.
With the ECB easing inevitable, periphery yields hit new lows
As France and Germany PMI measures converge on the rest of the Eurozone and with the area as a whole in a contraction mode, it is becoming increasingly clear that the ECB is likely to ease monetary policy further.
Composite Output PMI (reading below 50 indicates contraction; source: Markit)
Markit: - Activity fell sharply again in both manufacturing and services. While the former saw the steepest rate of decline for four months, the latter saw the downturn ease slightly compared with March.
New business fell for the twenty-first successive month, with the rate of deterioration accelerating for the third month in a row to signal the steepest decline since December. Marked falls were seen in both manufacturing and services.
Some have been hoping that the ECB will follow the Fed, the BOJ, and the BOE into the brave new world of QE on an unprecedented scale. The probability of such action is quite low however because the ECB does not have the dual mandate of the Fed and (for now) is only focused on price stability. The ECB also may hold back on buying periphery debt until/unless the nations request "assistance".
Even if the central bank commences some bond buying, it is unlikely to be large and would probably end up being sterilized. Nevertheless in preparation for this easing action by the ECB, yield hungry investors bought sovereign bonds across the board. Italian and Spanish yields dropped to the lowest level since 2010.
In an economy that may be close to becoming deflationary, the drive for yield seems to override sovereign risks. This move in yields is especially remarkable given that less than a year ago the Spanish banking system was teetering on collapse (see post).
IMF: Evidence does not support the ban on naked SCDS purchases
As discussed back in September (see post), the hysteria over sovereign CDS (SCDS) within the European Commission and other governing organizations has been completely overblown. Sovereign CDS has been more of a "canary in a coal mine", while EU politicians, bureaucrats, and often the public would sometimes prefer that the world does not know that their "sovereign canary" has died.
The IMF recently came out with a report confirming that much of the regulatory madness governing SCDS within the EU is unproductive. And a big part of the regulatory effort has in fact focused on the wrong risks.
IMF: - ... the evidence here does not support the need to ban purchases of naked SCDS protection. Such bans may reduce SCDS market liquidity to the point where these instruments are less effective as hedges and less useful as indicators of market-implied credit risk. In fact, in the wake of the European ban, SCDS market liquidity already seems to be tailing off , although the effects of the ban are hard to distinguish from the influence of other events that have reduced perceived sovereign credit risk. In any case, concerns about spillovers and contagion effects from SCDS markets could be more effectively dealt with by mitigating any detrimental outcomes from the underlying interlinkages and opaque information. Hence, efforts to lower risks in the over-the-counter derivatives market, such as mandating better disclosure, encouraging central clearing, and requiring the posting of appropriate collateral, would likely alleviate most SCDS concerns.
As much as we all were fascinated by the Greek CDS settlement, in the bigger scheme of things it was a non-event (see post). Once again it's worth pointing out that CDS is not insurance and operates more like a futures contract with margin calls taking place long before there is an event.
Also it's important to note that with all the fears of systemic risks, sovereign CDS represents only around 1% of the daily trading volume of the credit default swaps market - which is completely dominated by corporate CDS.
Source: DTCC Deriv/SERV
Moreover, most of this trading volume is in the various index CDS such as iTraxx and CDX. And those products are not materially different from index futures which we all know and love. So for those who like to pontificate on the evils of the sovereign credit default swaps markets (and this includes the European Commission), please get your facts straight.
The slowdown in economic activity is right on schedule - for the 4th year in a row
The "spring slowdown" is here again. As discussed earlier (see post), the previous three years saw a strong start in the US, followed by a slowdown in economic activity, particularly in manufacturing.
What's especially troubling this year is that we are also seeing a corresponding slowdown in other major economies that were thought to be in good shape, namely Germany ...
... and China.
China Manufacturing PMI (source: HSBC, Markit)
Treasury yields declined to the lowest level this year in response. This move reflects the bet that given the soft patch in the economy, the Fed will continue buying government paper for some time to come.
Reasons for recent rally in natural gas
The recent outperformance of US natural gas over crude oil has been quite spectacular - some 25% just since the beginning of March-2013.
As usual, we want to understand the fundamentals behind this divergence. Natural gas of course is primarily used for power generation and heating in the US, while crude oil demand is driven by other, more global factors. We've discussed the recent weakness in crude oil earlier (see post). The strength in natural gas on the other hand has been impacted by two key developments.
1. The warm winter of 2011-2012 caused a large build in inventories, which ended up weakening natural gas prices. In areas like the Northeast however (and some other regions that rely on natural gas for heating), the warm weather pattern has been reversed this past winter.
Source: Rutgers University
2. Faced with a glut of gas in storage and protracted price weakness, energy firms such as Chesapeake Energy have curtailed production - as can be seen in the recent trend of rig count.
Source: Baker Hughes
That has led to declining amounts of gas in storage, which has reached levels that are more consistent with historical averages ...
Source: EIA (blue = latest gas in storage for lower 48 states)
... and pushed natural gas prices comfortably above $4/mmBtu.
These higher prices will now halt and possibly reverse the declines in gas rig count and spur more activity in natural gas production. It may take some time to get to a balanced state, given the rapid changes in the US gas industry (see discussion). The oil-gas relative divergence however has likely played out its course for now.
Rotation out of money market funds - where is the cash going?
Investors are fleeing dollar-based money market funds. After the spike in cash holdings from taxable income "harvesting" at the end of 2012 (see discussion), the assets in money funds have declined sharply.
Source: ICI
What's causing this decline? The common explanation has been a major rotation into equities. That certainly explains some of it, but there is more to the story. Some institutional investors are becoming uneasy about the impending money market funds regulation. Not only are investors paid a near zero rate on their money market holdings, they also may be subject to some NAV fluctuations in the near future. Furthermore, the NAV fluctuations may only be applied to funds holding commercial paper and not to those holding just treasury bills or treasury repo.
Reuters: - Two-tier money market fund reform is as clear as mud. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is trying again to regulate these mutual funds, which compete with bank deposit accounts. But the rules could favor funds that invest in government debt over those buying corporate debt.
The SEC isn't talking specifics, but Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock, is. He told analysts this week that some funds may have to adopt a floating net asset value (NAV) - a standard in the mutual fund industry but anathema to those running these accounts that invest in short-term debt. That's because investors, who view money market funds as higher-yielding savings accounts, could actually lose money if NAV is no longer pegged to $1 per share. But the scheme is the best option floated by regulators who want to stop 2008-like runs from happening again. It's simple and puts risk back where it belongs: on investors.
But, according to Fink, it seems a floating NAV may not be applied to funds that invest in government debt like U.S. Treasuries. In a letter to regulators last December, BlackRock argued these funds, which represent 45 percent of the $2.5 trillion market, should be exempt. After all, they weren't part of the panic in 2008, which forced the government to bail out the industry with a blanket guarantee.
It's not clear why there need to be two sets of rules for money market funds, other than the need to get a deal done. The effort to reform money market funds has been a long slog. And the SEC has already failed once to overhaul the industry. Compromise may be necessary, but it shouldn't come at the expense of sensible regulation.
The whole attraction of money market funds has been the stability of principal. But with this type of regulatory risk, investors may be better off moving cash into short-term bond funds or ETFs. If one is going to be subject to volatility, why not hold money in something like the PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Strategy ETF (MINT), yielding 75bp. That's in contrast to PIMCO's Institutional Money Market Fund (PMIXX) which pays precisely zero, while its NAV may drop below par.
Not surprisingly, that's precisely what investors have been doing. In March short-term bond mutual funds and ETFs have clocked the largest inflow since 2009.
One unintended consequence of this shift to bond funds will be perturbations in some measures of money supply. Money market funds traditionally have been included in certain broad measures of money stock (such as MZM) while bond funds have not. The definition of "cash equivalents" have now been blurred further. Just watch certain high-profile economists in the next few months mistakenly interpreting this "rotation" as a slowdown in the growth of US money supply.
As banks get squeezed, non-bank mortgage servicers step in
Politicians continue to pressure banks' mortgage servicing businesses.
Senator Barbara Boxer: -
Dear Attorney General Holder, Secretary Donovan, and Mr. Smith:
I am extremely concerned over reports that banks continue to violate the rights of homeowners and the terms of the National Mortgage Settlement (NMS). As a condition of the NMS, participating banks agreed to ensure certain basic consumer protections in exchange for legal relief. However, while the banks have been relieved of that legal uncertainty, struggling homeowners continue to face a seemingly patchwork system that leaves them at risk of losing their homes.
A recent survey of housing counselors in my own state of California found widespread violations of the NMS. Among the most troubling findings of the survey, which was conducted by the California Reinvestment Coalition, large majorities of counselors reported that despite the settlement's requirements, the largest banks still frequently were failing to:
Provide borrowers with a Single Point of Contact who was accessible, consistent or knowledgeable;
Stop the foreclosure process while borrowers were negotiating in good faith for a loan modification – a practice known as dual tracking; or
Honor timelines for responding to, and deciding upon, borrower applications for loan modifications.
In addition, the survey found that the banks continue to lose documents and improperly deny borrowers the assistance they seek to stay in their homes. These violations have meant that California homeowners – especially those in the most vulnerable populations – still are not receiving the assistance they need to stay in their homes, causing unnecessary harm to families, neighborhoods, and the state's economy.
I strongly urge you to investigate the violations reported in this survey and to hold the banks accountable by taking strong enforcement actions. Too many Californians already have lost their homes unnecessarily during the foreclosure crisis due to bank malfeasance or error. It is essential that you take swift action to ensure that the banks are meeting their obligations under the terms of the settlement and that struggling homeowners receive the assistance they need.
Barbara Boxer
What some politicians fail to realize is that all of a sudden banks are overwhelmed with the mortgage volumes they have to process and service. The mortgage servicing arms of banking organizations these days operate with severely reduced staff levels and are simply being overrun by new loans heading their way. Dealing with delinquencies and mortgage modifications becomes challenging when departments are facing sharply higher volumes.
This pressure is forcing banking organizations to curtail mortgage volumes they are able to service. As a result, non-banking organizations are expected to take on an increasing role in servicing US mortgages. Not having to deal with the same degree of political and regulatory pressure, non-bank mortgage servicers are starting to ramp up. Smaller, more nimble, and not as concerned about their image or the Dodd Frank rules, these firms are expected to take advantage of the situation and grab market share.
Reasons behind emerging markets correction
A confluence of recent events has been pressuring emerging countries' equity markets. Over the past couple of years emerging and developed markets have been moving in lockstep, but the two have diverged recently.
What's behind this underperformance in emerging markets stocks? It seems that a number of simultaneous developments has contributed to the sell-off:
1. The spectacular decline in shares of Apple has put downward pressure on some of its Asian suppliers and related technology firms.
2. Weaker than expected growth in China (see post) is contributing to the sell-off (see Bloomberg story from earlier this week).
3. The emerging strength of Japan's exporters due to rapid yen devaluation (see post) is hurting the regional competitors, particularly in South Korea. The KOSPI index is down over 6% year-to-date.
4. The recent violent commodity sell-off especially in metals and energy is pressuring commodity producers such as Russia. Russia's export sector is a one-trick pony, except for some arms sales and a sprinkle of IT services. That's why with oil sharply lower (see post), the Russian stock market is down 13% year-to-date. Other commodity exporters, from Brazil to South Africa, got hit as well.
5. Negative economic surprises in the US are not helping. The US index of leading economic indicators and the Philadelphia Fed Survey both disappointed today. As discussed, the US has entered its fourth year of seasonal spring slowdown (see post). Expectations of weaker demand from the US are hurting emerging market indices.
Bloomberg: - Emerging-market stocks dropped to the lowest level in almost five months as Apple Inc.'s Asian suppliers retreated on speculation sales are slowing and concern grew that the global economy is faltering.
LG Display Co. slid the most in four months in Seoul after audio-chipmaker Cirrus Logic Inc. reported an inventory glut that suggests slowing iPhone sales. Jiangxi Copper Co. sank 2.5 percent in Hong Kong, while Russia's Micex Index reversed earlier gains, closing at the lowest level since June 25.
Brazil's Bovespa index rebounded from a nine-month low, as Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA jumped 11 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.4 percent to 997.33 in New York, the lowest level since Nov. 28. Stocks joined losses in the U.S. equity market as data on leading economic indicators and Philadelphia-area manufacturing trailed estimates. Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its global growth forecast.
"It's global, very much like a cold that seems to be going around," Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York-based fund manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $380 billion, said by phone. "Earlier in the year, the macro data was on a more reliably upward trajectory. Now there appears to be a moderation going on."
There is "moderation going on" indeed.
Japan rewarded for launching the currency war
Japan's "Merchandise Trade" exports surprised to the upside this morning. All of a sudden Japan's export activity is picking up steam.
CNN: - Japan has posted its narrowest trade deficit for nine months, helped by a big rise in the value of shipments to the US, which has toppled China as Japan's number one export destination.
Provisional figures released on Thursday by Japan's finance ministry showed that overall exports rose 1.1 per cent in March from a year earlier to Y6.3tn ($64bn)...
Very little has changed over the past few months in Japan's product and service offerings or in the way the nation's companies market their products. The yen however is down nearly 14% against the dollar this year alone. And in this price sensitive global economy 14% makes a great deal of difference. It didn't take long for Japan to be rewarded for its currency devaluation policy.
Moreover, it is clear from the nation's stock market performance relative to global equity markets (chart below) that currency wars can be quite effective and profitable if aggressively executed. Other nations (particularly in the region) are clearly watching and are likely to "retaliate" by devaluing their own currencies.
Source: Ycharts (click to expand)
What's causing sharp declines in crude oil prices? Visit ND lately?
Staying with the theme of bearish sentiment in commodity markets, crude oil came under severe pressure recently. Based on today's data, US crude inventory actually declined last week, surprising some forecasters who expected crude stocks to continue rising. One would expect lower inventories to result in higher prices, but that did not occur.
Instead WTI futures took a 2% hit today, reaching a 10-month low.
May WTI futures
Here are some of the explanations from market participants for these violent moves to the downside:
1. Weaker than expected growth in China has precipitated a negative sentiment in commodity markets (see discussion).
2. Major commodity investors such as hedge funds have been unwinding positions.
3. Today we saw what could amount to weaker than expected demand for gasoline in the US, as more drivers stay home.
EIA: - Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied has averaged over 8.4 million barrels per day, down by 3.3 percent from the same period last year.
4. The non-OPEC crude oil production, particularly out of North America continues to surprise. The Deutsche Bank chart below, showing North Dakota's oil production, is giving some long oil investors a pause for concern (in some cases nightmares).
DB: - The latest production data out of North Dakota, home to the prolific Bakken shale, reflects the strength of US production as output hit a record 780kbd in February after dipping in January as cold weather hindered operations. Production in the state is up nearly 40% YTD. According to Lynn Helms, Director of North Dakota's Department of Mineral Resources, the state is likely to reach 800kbd in May once weather conditions improve. Helms also said the state is on track to reach production of 850kbd by early 2014. We note that if North Dakota's production averages about 800kbd this year, which would be up from last year's average production rate of 663kbd, this would be equal to over 70% of non-OPEC's estimated total supply growth for this year, according to the IEA.
All this is good news from the Fed's perspective, giving the central bank incremental room for monetary expansion. It's unclear where the Fed-induced bubble will show up, but for now it's not in commodities.