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Jako lidožravá zvířata jsou označována ta, která cíleně útočí na lidi a požírají jejich maso. Nepatří sem zvířata, která lidské maso pozřela příležitostně, zaútočila na člověka kvůli nedostatku jiné potravy nebo ho zkonzumovala po jeho zabití v sebeobraně. Nicméně všechny tyto tři případy (zejména poslední dva) mohou dále vést k vytvoření návyku a následkem toho mohou i podpořit rozvoj lidožravého chování. Mezi lidožrouty se nepočítají mrchožrouti.

Lidé mohou být napadeni a zabiti mnoha živočichy, ale jen ti, kteří je pravidelně loví a konzumují, jsou skutečnými lidožrouty. Nejčastěji se jimi stávají tygři, lvi, levharti a krokodýli. Některé další druhy zvířat mohou výjimečně zařadit lidi do svého jídelníčku. Jedná se především o různé druhy medvědů, jaguáry, pumy, vlky, hyeny skvrnité, kojoty prérijní, psy dingo, větší škrtiče (zejména krajtu mřížkovanou, krajtu písmenkovou a anakondu velkou), varany komodské a žraloky.

Vnímání lidožravých zvířat
Útoky na lidi kvůli potravě vedly k démonizaci dotyčných predátorů. Obavy z možného útoku podpořily sportovní lov tygrů, leopardů a lvů a vyhlazování či vyhánění dravých zvířat z území, která jsou v blízkosti lidských sídel. Strach z útoků na lidi inspiroval folklór, pověry, legendy a příběhy, které dravá zvířata charakterizují jako zlo.

Příčiny
K výskytu lidožravého zvířete ve volné přírodě dochází velmi vzácně a to pouze za zvláštních okolností. Přirozeným chováním většiny zvířat včetně velkých predátorů je preventivní opatrnost před lidmi a vyhýbání se vzájemným kontaktům, což je dáno dlouhodobou zkušeností ze vzájemného soužití. Přesto mohou nastat okolnosti, které útok spustí. Zvířata napadají lidi, když je vnímají jako ohrožení své existence, svých mláďat nebo svého teritoria, ale obvykle se při tom potravou nestávají. Zvíře se může stát lidožravým, pokud nemá přístup ke své přirozené kořisti, buď kvůli jejímu nedostatku nebo kvůli svému hendikepu, a začne napadat lidi, když zjistí, že jde o dostupný zdroj potravy. U mnoha lidožroutů byla pozorována poškození chrupu nebo drápů, případně zhoršená pohyblivost zaviněná buď stářím nebo nějakým zraněním. Neozbrojení lidé jsou poměrně snadnou kořistí, kterou lze přemoct i přes nějaký vlastní hendikep. Nejde ovšem o pravidlo a lidožrouty se mohou stát i zvířata zcela zdravá. Mláďata, která byla krmená lidským masem, se nemusí nutně sama stát lidožrouty. Zatímco mláďata se budou živit poskytovanou potravou, tak pozdější nezávislost zpravidla přiměje zvíře vrátit se ke své přirozené potravě.

Kočkovité šelmy

Tygři
Záznamy ukazují, že tygry bylo usmrceno daleko více lidí než kteroukoliv jinou kočkovitou šelmou. V Indii zabíjeli tygři na počátku 20. století každoročně až 1 000 lidí, přičemž jenom bengálská tygřice z Čampávatu jich usmrtila 436. V mangrovovém lese Sundarbans bylo letech 1969-1971 tygry zabito 129 lidí. Na rozdíl od levhartů a lvů tygři zřídkakdy přepadávají lidské obydlí. Většina obětí se nacházela v tygřím teritoriu, když k útoku došlo. Navíc k nim dochází většinou během denních hodin. Sundarbans je nyní domovem pro přibližně 600 bengálských tygrů, kteří kdysi pravidelně zabíjeli 50 až 60 lidí ročně (v současnosti jsou to asi 3 oběti ročně). Nejpravděpodobnější teorie tento fenomén vysvětluje zvýšenou slaností vodních toků v oblasti, jež tygrům, kteří potřebují pít sladkou vodu, způsobuje chronické zdravotní potíže a činí je extrémně agresivními. Další teorie spojuje jejich krvežíznivost po lidech s konzumací lidských mrtvol vyplavených po velkých povodních zapříčiněných silnými monzunovými dešti, které jsou pro tuto oblast typické.

Lvi

Lidožraví lvi útočí na lidi i přímo ve vesnicích, mnohdy bez ohledu na denní dobu, což ovšem také znamená, že jdou snadněji zlikvidovat než tygři. Stávají se lidožrouty ze stejných důvodů jako tygři: kvůli hladovění, stáří, hendikepu nebo nemoci, ačkoliv stejně jako u tygrů byli někteří lidožraví jedinci zcela zdraví. K nejznámějšímu případu lidožravých lvů došlo v roce 1898 na území Britské východní Afriky, dnešní Keni. Při budování mostu pro nově zřízenou železnici přes řeku Tsavo dělníky terorizovali dva velcí samci lvů bez hřívy. Tvrdí se, že zabili a pozřeli nejméně několik desítek, případně až 135 dospělých mužů. Celý železniční projekt musel být pozastaven kvůli obavám z dalších útoků. Nakonec byli oba dva lvi vystopováni a zastřeleni hlavním inženýrem projektu.

Studie lidožravých lvů ukazují, že lidi loví jako doplněk ke stravě, nikoli kvůli přežití. V červenci 2018 jihoafrický zpravodajský web uvedl, že tři pytláci byli roztrháni a sežráni lvy v přírodní rezervaci v provincii Východní Kapsko v Jihoafrické republice.

Levharti
Levhartů s lidožravou tendencí je velmi malé procento, ale i přesto jsou nepopiratelně hrozbou. Například tzv. panarský lidožrout zabil v Indii začátkem 20. století asi 400 lidí. Britský spisovatel a ochránce přírody Jim Corbett v jedné ze svých prací uvedl, že oproti tygrům, kteří se stávají lidožrouty zejména kvůli nějakému svému hendikepu, u levhartů k tomu běžně dochází po ochutnání lidských ostatků. V Asii leopardi útočí téměř výhradně v noci a bylo hlášeno, že často vylamují dveře a odtrhují doškové střechy, aby se dostali k lidem. V Africe dochází k útokům relativně méně často. Asi k nejdrastičtějšímu řádění levharta na tomto kontinentu došlo koncem 19. století v Somálsku, kdy jeden lidožrout zabil asi 100 lidí. Za drtivou většinu incidentů můžou levhartí samci, útoky samic jsou velmi vzácné. Napadenými bývají především ženy a děti.

Pumy
V případě těchto šelem k útokům na lidi dochází jen velmi vzácné, přestože dosahují délky až 290 cm a hmotnosti i kolem 80 kg. Pro pumy není člověk typickou kořistí, na kterou jsou v mládí naučeni. Pokud se puma pouze nebrání (neútočí-li z pudu sebezáchovy v případě, že je lovena a zahnána do kouta) zaútočí obyčejně jen nemocný či vyhladovělý jedinec (tzn. v důsledku aberantního chování), nebo mladý nezkušený jedinec hledající si nové území a pohybující se v ne příliš známém prostředí, který si, patrně též pod vlivem stresu a hladu, člověka může splést s obvyklou kořistí (důkazem toho je fakt, že útočí způsobem podobným tomu, když loví potravu). Zaznamená-li ale člověka zdravá dospělá puma, obvykle se dá na útěk. K útokům na člověka dochází zejména v Severní Americe, kde přišla o velkou část svého území a je nucena dělit se o biotop s lidmi, jejichž populace neustále roste a v důsledku urbanizace zabírají čím dál více životního prostoru. V poslední době vzrůstá i populace pum, tudíž množství případů může mírně stoupat. K incidentům nejčastěji dochází koncem jara až léta, kdy subadultní (mladé) pumy opouštějí své matky a hledají si nové území. Napadají zejména děti nebo dospělé menšího vzrůstu. Jelikož se útoků dopouští převážně mladí nebo zesláblí jedinci, ve výsledku tedy méně zkušené nebo drobnější pumy, často se dospělý člověk dokáže i ubránit, vyplašit agresivní pumu údery (pěstmi, holí, deštníkem, hozeným kamenem apod.) nebo ji dokonce zabít. Existují však i případy bezúhonných střetnutí, ve kterých puma pouze hrozí, ale nezaútočí, a to třeba ani samice, která bránila svá koťata. Je však důležité, aby se člověk, ocitne-li se v takové situaci, zachoval správně a šelmu svým jednáním nevydráždil (např. útěkem).

Jaguáři
Útoky jaguárů na lidi jsou velmi neobvyklé, dochází k nim v mnohem menší míře než u tygrů, lvů a levhartů. V minulosti byly nejspíše častější, a to alespoň v době po příchodu španělských conquistadorů do Ameriky. Riziko pro lidi by pravděpodobně vzrostlo, kdyby se snížilo množství kapybar, které jsou pro jaguára primární stravou.

Psovití

Vlci
Četnost, jakou vlci zabijí lidi, je nízká. Ve většině z mála případů, kdy dojde k útokům, jsou oběťmi děti. Faktorem přispívajícím k útokům je návyk na lidskou populaci, kvůli čemuž vlci přestávají mít strach z lidí strach a stávají se méně plachými, podobně jako městští kojoti. K útoku může dojít, když lidé záměrně povzbuzují vlky, aby se k nim přiblížili, obvykle nabízením potravy, nebo neúmyslně tím, že je nezastrašují. To potvrzují záznamy, které prokazují, že vlci v chráněných oblastech jsou k lidem méně obezřetní než vlci v oblastech, kde jsou aktivně loveni.

Dingo
S pouhými dvěma potvrzenými úmrtími v Austrálii jsou útoky psem dingo na člověka raritou. Podobně jako vlci, psy dingo většinou útočí na malé děti. Pes dingo je jinak vůči lidem přirozeně plachý a vyhýbá se jim. Nejznámějším zaznamenaným útokem psa dingo je pohřešování devítitýdenní Azarie Chamberlainové. Oba její rodiče při výslechu uvedli, že zahlédli dinga, jak Azarii vytáhl z jejich stanu, když byla s rodinou na výletě k Uluru. V roce 2019 otec zabránil dingovi odtáhnout jeho 14měsíční dítě.

Psi domácí
Přestože psi mají většinu z charakteristik typických pro lidožravá zvířata, lidožravými nebývají. Častěji lidi mohou být smečkami toulavých psů pokousáni, ale málokdy sežráni. Smečky toulavých psů se často vyskytují v zemích bývalého SSSR a v některých částech jižní Asie, jako je Indie. K útokům na lidi, které měly za následek smrt, došlo, ale za mnohými z nich stálo lidské pochybení.

Kojoti
Drtivá většina útoků kojotů na lidi byla neúspěšná. K dnešnímu dni, kromě dvou fatálních případů, všechny známé oběti přežily díky aktivní obraně, útěku nebo příchodem záchrany, a pouze v jednou z případů byla oběť částečně sežrána.

Hyenovití
Přestože se hyeny příležitostně živí lidskými mrtvolami, tak obecně jsou vůči lidem velmi ostražité, a to je činí méně nebezpečnými než odvážnější kočkovité šelmy. Nicméně jak hyena skvrnitá, tak menší hyena žíhaná jsou silní predátoři, kteří jsou schopni zabít dospělého člověka, a je známo, že na lidi zaútočí, pokud je nedostatek potravy. Stejně jako většina predátorů mají hyeny sklon směřovat útoky na slabší jedince, i přesto, že oba druhy mohou příležitostně napadnout i dospělého muže v plné síle. Hyena skvrnitá je nebezpečnější, jelikož je větší, dravější a agresivnější než hyena žíhaná.

Medvědovití
Přestože medvědi na člověka útočí jen zřídka, jejich napadení člověku mnohdy přivodí smrtelná zranění kvůli mohutnosti a nesmírné síle gigantických masožravců. U medvědů není k usmrcení člověka ani nutný záměr konzumace. Územní spory a ochrana mláďat mohou mít za následek vyprovokování medvěda. Útoky skutečně lidožravých medvědů nejsou běžné, ale je známo, že k nim dochází, pokud jsou zvířata nemocná nebo pokud není dostatek potravy, což je vede k tomu, že sní vše, co mohou. V letech 1870 až 2014 bylo zaznamenáno celkem 73 útoků ledních medvědů, z nichž vzešlo 20 lidských obětí. Za většinou z nich stáli vyhladovělí dospělí samci. V červenci 2008 zabily desítky hladovějících medvědů hnědých dva geology pracující na lososí farmě na Kamčatce. Poté, co byly objeveny částečně snědené ostatky, ruské úřady zareagovaly zasláním profesionálních lovců, aby medvědy usmrtili. Lední medvědi, kteří nejsou zvyklí na přítomnost lidí, a proto k nim nemají zakořeněný strach, lidi loví pro potravu, ale se správnými opatřeními je není problém odradit.

Plazi

Krokodýlové
Krokodýlí útoky na lidi jsou běžné v místech jejich původního výskytu. Každý rok jsou krokodýlu nilskému připisovány stovky smrtících útoků. Protože se ve východní Africe vyskytuje vysoký počet jedinců krokodýla nilského, přítomnost lidí žijících v absolutní chudobě a/nebo bez infrastruktury zapříčinila, že tento krokodýl je zodpovědný za více útoků na lidi než všechny ostatní druhy krokodýlů dohromady. Také v Austrálii a jihovýchodní Asii jsou krokodýli, v tomto případě mořští, zodpovědní za mnoho útoků a v samotné Austrálii průměrně za několik úmrtí ročně. Dalším nebezpečným krokodýlem je krokodýl bahenní, který obývá jižní Asii a především v Indii ročně usmrtí několik lidí. Jistou hrozbu může představovat i krokodýl americký, ale k případným jeho útokům scházejí relevantní data.

Aligátoři
Aligátoři loví lidi velmi zřídka. Došlo pouze k několika případům útoků, zejména se jednalo o útoky na malé děti a nemohoucí. Na rozdíl od mnohem nebezpečnějších nilských krokodýlů se většina aligátorů kontaktu s člověkem vyhýbá.

Hadi
Jen velmi málo druhů hadů je fyzicky schopno spolknout dospělého člověka. I přesto se objevilo poměrně dost tvrzení, že obří škrtiči dospělé lidi skutečně žerou, avšak takových případů bylo potvrzeno pouze minimum. Za potenciálně nebezpečné jsou považovány krajta mřížkovaná, krajta tmavá, krajta písmenková a anakonda velká. V roce 2017 byly v Indonésii objeveny pozůstatky dospělého muže uvnitř 7 metrů dlouhého exempláře krajty mřížkované. Velcí škrtiči někdy uškrtí i kořist, která je příliš velká na to, než aby ji mohli spolknout. Je prokázáno, že větší škrtič může spolknout kojence nebo malé dítě.

Ještěři
Varani komodští jsou jediným druhem ještěrů, který může konzumovat lidi. Protože žijí na odlehlém ostrově Komodo a v jeho okolí, k útokům dochází málokdy a také nemusí být hlášeny. Navzdory jejich velikosti jsou útoky na lidi často neúspěšné a obětem se většinou podaří vyváznout s lehčími zraněními.

Hlodavci

Krysy
Navzdory malé velikosti mohou krysy zabíjet lidi tím, že je ve velkém počtu ukousají. Někdy se usmrcení krysami používalo jako druh mučení.

Podle pověstí za královny Alžběty I. v londýnském Toweru existovala podzemní cela, kam stoupající voda z Temže vyplavila houfy krys. Do cely nemělo přístup žádné světlo a žalářníci s loučemi neměli dovoleno do cely vstupovat. Vězeň byl uvržen do naprosté tmy a jediné, co slyšel bylo cupitání krys, které mu posléze okusovaly maso z těla.

Prasata
Přestože se nejedná o masožravce, prasata jsou zdatnými predátory a jsou schopná zabít a sežrat slabé lidi, kteří se jim nemohou ubránit nebo uniknout. Mnohé středověké soudy se zvířaty soudila prasata za pojídání dětí. Český vrah Ivan Roubal prý vyprávěl, že svá vietnamská prasata krmil některými z obětí. Toto tvrzení ale před vyšetřovateli a u soudu popřel.

Ptactvo
Existuje hypotéza, že někteří orli korunkatí považují lidská mláďata za kořist. Mezi důkazy tohoto tvrzení patří jeden zaznamenaný útok, při němž se orel pokusil usmrtit sedmiletého chlapce a objev úlomku dětské lebky v hnízdě. To by z něj činilo jediného žijícího ptáka, o kterém je známo, že zařazuje lidi do svého jídelníčku. O jiných ptácích, jako jsou pštrosi a kasuáři, se ví, že několikrát lidi zabili v sebeobraně. Někteří jiní dravci občas na lidi zaútočí, ale zřejmě nikoliv za účelem predace.

V roce 2019 byla v Etiopii zaznamenána řada incidentů, při nichž orel bojovný napadl a zabil jedno dítě a zranil další dvě.

Některé fosilní důkazy naznačují, že v průběhu pravěku velcí draví ptáci příležitostně lovili prehistorické členy čeledi Hominidae. Předpokládá se, že Taungské dítě náležející k druhu Australopithecus africanus v Africe, zabil orlovitý pták podobný orlu korunkatému. Také se předpokládá, že vyhynulý orel Haastův mohl lovit lidi na Novém Zélandu, což by bylo v souladu s maorským folklórem, v němž se o lidožravém ptáku, zdánlivě připomínajícím orla, povídá.

Ryby

Žraloci
Pouze omezený počet druhů žraloků představuje vážnou hrozbu pro lidi. Nejnebezpečnější druhy nejsou potravními specialisty a přijmou jakoukoli potenciální potravu, na kterou narazí, nebo mohou člověka kousnout ze zvědavosti nebo kvůli záměně za jinou kořist (např. velký bílý žralok útočící na surfaře možná proto, že jejich siluetu považuje za svou oblíbenou kořist, lachtany).

Z více než 568 druhů žraloků jsou jenom čtyři označované za skutečně nebezpečné lidem a zodpovědné za většinu útoků. Jsou to žralok bílý, žralok tygří, žralok bělavý a žralok dlouhoploutvý. Ale ani v mořích jimi obývaných nebývají útoky časté. Žraloci se stávají opravdovou hrozbou například při ztroskotání lodí a dlouhodobém pobytu velkého množství často poraněných plavců ve vodě, k čemuž kupříkladu docházelo za 2. světové války.

Piraně
Ke smrtelným útokům piraní dochází zejména v povodí řeky Amazonky. V roce 2011 byl v Bolívii piraňami usmrcen opilý 18letý muž, který nešťastnou náhodou spadl do řeky a následkem mnoha otevřených ran způsobených kousnutími ryb vykrvácel. V blízkosti některých brazilských řek se nacházejí výstražné tabule, které plavce před možnou přítomností piraní varují.

Související články

 Čampavátský lidožrout
 Gévaudanská bestie
 Gustave (krokodýl)

 Lidožraví lvi z Tsava
 Lidožravý levhart z Rudraprayagu

Reference

Etologie
Potravové strategie

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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The biggest challenge for a Small and Medium Enterprises is the management working capital cycle for a myriad of reasons. One after the other delayed payments pile up and put the SMEs in a compromising position. The rate of repayment lags behind the rate at which the payments become overdue. This, in turn, hampers their cash-flow cycle for raw-material procurement.
A lot of SMEs are owned and managed by first-time entrepreneurs. Since they do not have a lot of financial resources, they try to manage all the functions unaided, but they end up crossing the budgeted threshold of expenses due to lack of expertise and experience. This can unsettle the purchase cycle and creditor turnover ratio and lead to an accelerated accumulation of outstanding expenses.
Purchase Financing can come to the rescue of such SMEs which have fallen into the trap of poor cash conversion cycle. The limited working capital availability not only impacts the availability of raw material, it directly impacts the day to day capital requirements(eg. manpower costs). Further, the SMEs find it difficult to procure loans from the banks due to lack of collateral. The NBFCs, therefore, have come up with an innovative payment mode which is designed to provide unsecured loans and credit lines to meet the short-term capital requirements without any security.
1. Accessibility – Major players such as OfBusiness are present both online and offline. Most of the processes are on digital platforms and are automated which leads to quick verification of documents and disbursals.
2. Quick Disbursement – Three to five days is the average time period taken to approve the unsecured business loans post submission of the required documents by NBFCs. This swiftness in disbursals ensures that any and all short-term capital requirements that might arise are fulfilled before any payments become outstanding.
3.Collateral-free – When short-term financial requirements arise it becomes difficult to secure collateral in such a short span. And since Purchase Financing requires no collateral, it eliminates another block that can threaten the existence of the enterprise.
4. Payment of interest – NBFCs offers working capital up to 2 Crores for purchase financing. Credit lines offered by NBFCs require payment of interest only on the amount used and for the usage period only.
1. Better material costs – Since in purchase financing SMEs get cash readily available they get more negotiating power over the suppliers to secure better raw-materials according to their requirements.
2. Savings on interest payouts – Purchase financing is normally offered by NBFCs and they charge an interest-rate of ~1.4-1.6% per month on the amount used and for the usage period. As compared with traditional lenders this rate of interest is 1% lower. Thus, SMEs using purchase financing for bulk raw-material procurement can save on interest up to 3% for over a period of 90 days.
3. A Wide range of products – NBFCs also help SMEs procure bulk raw-material at competitive prices from their strategic partners. This is helping SMEs procure quality raw-material for their operations and get it delivered to any location with ease. Different procurement organizations- offer bulk raw-material purchasing for TMT, steel bars, polymer, textile, cement etc.
Purchase financing is a strategic solution for SMEs to ensure uninterrupted operations and have a better organizational relation with the suppliers. This idea has evolved over the past few years and will definitely have a steep growth curve with immense opportunities being offered to the SMEs. From savings on interest to better procurement, purchase financing offers it all-in-one.


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Atanas Stefanow Sejkow bułg. Атанас Стефанов Сейков (ur. 18 marca 1928 w Sofii, zm. 7 września 2010 tamże) – bułgarski pisarz i publicysta.

Życiorys
W 1964 ukończył studia esperantologiczne w Instytucie Pedagogicznym w Budapeszcie. Po studiach pracował jako dziennikarz w Płowdiwie, był także nauczycielem i tłumaczem z języka angielskiego.

W 1990 zakładał Związek Niezależnych Pisarzy Bułgarskich. Powieść "Japonia w moim życiu", wydana w 1995 została wyróżniona przez amerykańską Bibliotekę Kongresu, która przyznała autorowi honorowy doktorat.

Dzieła
 1979: Странствания
 1982: Странствания-2
 1986: Надникване в Япония
 1991: Загадъчният свещеник
 1995: Япония в моя живот
 1998: Голямата тайна

Linki zewnętrzne
 Nekrolog pisarza
 Wywiad z pisarzem

Bułgarscy dziennikarze
Bułgarscy prozaicy XX wieku
Bułgarscy publicyści
Bułgarscy tłumacze
Doktorzy honoris causa
Esperantyści
Ludzie urodzeni w Sofii
Pisarze związani z Budapesztem
Pisarze związani z Płowdiwem
Pisarze związani z Sofią
Urodzeni w 1928
Zmarli w 2010


text:
import React from 'react';
import createSvgIcon from './utils/createSvgIcon';

export default createSvgIcon(
  <React.Fragment><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0V0z" /><g><path d="M19 3H5v18l7-3 7 3V3z" /></g></React.Fragment>
, 'BookmarkSharp');

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
August 16, 2018 / 5:05 AM / in a year
Trump's latest boost to the dollar: U.S.-Turkey spat
Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
NEW YORK (Reuters) - President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for a weaker U.S. dollar in a bid to help U.S. exporters, but his recent trade policies, including the imposition of import tariffs on some Turkish goods, have had the opposite effect of strengthening the greenback.
FILE PHOTO: A U.S. 100 dollar banknote is seen through a magnifying lens on top of 10 and 20 lira banknotes in this illustration picture taken in Istanbul January 28, 2014. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/Illustration/File Photo
The dollar this week rose to a 13-month high against a basket of currencies, getting an extra boost as emerging markets have sold off on concern about contagion from Turkey and investors sought a safehaven in the U.S. currency.
On August 10, Trump intensified the spat with Turkey over the detention in Turkey of U.S. evangelical pastor Andrew Brunson on terrorism charges by imposing higher tariffs on metal imports. The move sent the Turkish lira to a record low against the dollar and spurred declines in other emerging market currencies.
GRAPHIC: Turkish lira vs U.S. dollar - reut.rs/2vMLlPD
The U.S. dollar has risen against major currencies for several months, with the dollar index .DXY up nearly 8 percent over the last four months. On Wednesday, the index hit a fresh 13-month high.
"In a lot of ways some of his actions have amplified this risk-off type of environment, which has ultimately helped the U.S. dollar strengthen in the near-term," said Charles Tomes, senior investment analyst and trader at Manulife Asset Management in Boston.
GRAPHIC: President Trump on U.S. dollar - reut.rs/2P971NE
Robust U.S. economic data this year, even as Europe and other major economies have lost some steam, has helped keep the U.S. Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates twice more this year, which should boost the appeal of the dollar further.
"I think the dollar is strengthening as a result of diverging monetary policies," said Oliver Pursche, Chief Market Strategist Of Bruderman Brothers In New York. "It's fairly clear that the Fed is almost certain to hike in September and very likely to hike in December again, whereas other central banks are maintaining a status quo."
Some analysts said that U.S. tax cuts passed last year by Congress which are boosting corporate earnings and economic growth have reinforced the reasons for raising interest rates. The $1.5 trillion tax cut and the $1.3 trillion spending bill enacted in March, have pushed forecasts for the fiscal deficit higher. The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly four years in the second quarter.
"So now you have economic data warranting the Fed rate hiking cycle and expectations for other central banks pushed out a little bit," said Tomes.
The administration's move to impose import tariffs against China, Europe, Mexico and Canada is also expected to contribute to inflation, which tends to ramp up bets on a swifter pace of Fed rate hikes and, in turn, a stronger dollar.
Investors have also shown a preference for the greenback based on the expectation that the it will gain at the expense of emerging market currencies which are dependent on commodity exports.
GRAPHIC: Emerging market currencies in 2018 - reut.rs/2vMwAMJ
"When the dollar turned in the second quarter we had a really weak EM market," Said Haidar, founder and chief investment officer, at New York hedge fund Haidar Capital Management, said.
"You now have another huge selloff in EM, which has been exacerbated by Trump's willingness to jam on more and more sanctions when countries are having trouble in the market – like adding to the sanctions on Turkey," Haidar said.
MSCI's emerging market currency index .MIEM00000CUS hit its lowest level since May 2017 on Wednesday as many major emerging currencies extended their selloff in the wake of Turkey's currency crisis.
GRAPHIC: MSCI's emerging market currency index - reut.rs/2vGxrhR
Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Kate Duguid and Stephen Culp

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
|Lisa Cook Becomes the First Black Woman Appointed to the Federal Reserve's Board|The Block is Hot: The 10 Best Dressed Men of the New Year, So Far|Danielle Brooks Weds Fiancé Dennis Gelin|EBONY Rundown: Lisa Bonet & Jason Momoa Part Ways, Navient to Cancel $1.7B in Student Loans, and More|Urban One Honors Highlights the Soundtrack of Black America This MLK Day|Property Pros Egypt Sherrod and Her Husband Mike Jackson Have a New HGTV Show|Lauryn Hill Is Executive Producing a Documentary on Amiri Baraka and His Family|Salvatore Ferragamo Taps Jharrel Jerome for Its Spring/Summer 2022 Advertising Campaign|Four Black Female Police Officers Are Suing Baltimore Police Department Alleging Discrimination and Harassment|5 Circle Mirrors That'll Make a Big Statement in Any Room
Arts & Entertainment, Black Listed, Sports
Which Sports Have the Blackest. Whitest, and Richest Fans?
Although sports account for just barely 1 percent of all TV programming, it accounts for 7 percent of the total cost of pay-TV, and 50 percent of the of Tweets about television, according to Nielsen's 2013 Year in Sports Media Report. We can go on and on about how sports programming has become central to the business model of live cable TV (and therefore a central driver of the cost of cable), but that's for another day. Today, let's look at TV demographics.
Yes, the NFL is the most-watched sport. But which sport's audience is richest? Whitest? Youngest? Fortunately, Nielsen tracks that data, too. First some highlights, then the graphs. (Note: Nielsen's survey figures are heavy on older, whiter audiences, since they're more likely to own a television and pay for cable.)
The NBA has the youngest audience, with 45 percent of its viewers under 35. It also has the highest share of Black viewers, at 45 percent—three times higher than the NFL or NCAA basketball. Major League Baseball shares the most male-heavy audience, at 70 percent, with the NBA. The NHL audience is the richest of all professional sports. One-third of its viewers make more than $100k, compared to about 19 percent of the general population.
Nascar's audience has the highest share of women (37 percent) and highest share of White people (94 percent). The Professional Golfers Association has the oldest audience by multiple measures: smallest share of teenagers; smallest share of 20- and early 30-somethings; and highest share of 55+ (twice as high, in the oldest demo, as the NBA or Major League Soccer).
Deion Sanders Offers To Help The Alcorn State Football Team With Athletic Trainers
Major League Soccer has the highest share of Hispanics by far (34 percent; second is the NBA at 12 percent) and the lowest income of any major sports audience. Nearly 40 percent of its fans make less than $40k. The NCAA demographics for football and basketball are practically identical but they are surprising old (about 40% over 55+) and surprisingly White (about 80%), which clearly has as much to do with who owns a TV rather than who follows the sports.
major league baseball NBA NFL NHL sports fans
Urban One Honors Highlights the Soundtrack of Black America This MLK Day
Property Pros Egypt Sherrod and Her Husband Mike Jackson Have a New HGTV Show
Lauryn Hill Is Executive Producing a Documentary on Amiri Baraka and His Family


text:
A methodological comparison of risk scores versus decision trees for predicting drug-resistant infections: A case study using extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) bacteremia
Katherine E. Goodman, Justin T Lessler, Anthony D. Harris, Aaron Milstone, Pranita Tamma
Background:Timely identification of multidrug-resistant gram-negative infections remains an epidemiological challenge. Statistical models for predicting drug resistance can offer utility where rapid diagnostics are unavailable or resource-impractical. Logistic regression-derived risk scores are common in the healthcare epidemiology literature. Machine learning-derived decision trees are an alternative approach for developing decision support tools. Our group previously reported on a decision tree for predicting ESBL bloodstream infections. Our objective in the current study was to develop a risk score from the same ESBL dataset to compare these 2 methods and to offer general guiding principles for using each approach.Methods:Using a dataset of 1,288 patients with Escherichia coli or Klebsiella spp bacteremia, we generated a risk score to predict the likelihood that a bacteremic patient was infected with an ESBL-producer. We evaluated discrimination (original and cross-validated models) using receiver operating characteristic curves and C statistics. We compared risk score and decision tree performance, and we reviewed their practical and methodological attributes.Results:In total, 194 patients (15%) were infected with ESBL-producing bacteremia. The clinical risk score included 14 variables, compared to the 5 decision-tree variables. The positive and negative predictive values of the risk score and decision tree were similar (>90%), but the C statistic of the risk score (0.87) was 10% higher.Conclusions:A decision tree and risk score performed similarly for predicting ESBL infection. The decision tree was more user-friendly, with fewer variables for the end user, whereas the risk score offered higher discrimination and greater flexibility for adjusting sensitivity and specificity.
Infection control and hospital epidemiology
https://doi.org/10.1017/ice.2019.17
Statistical Models
ROC Curve
Goodman, K. E., Lessler, J. T., Harris, A. D., Milstone, A., & Tamma, P. (2019). A methodological comparison of risk scores versus decision trees for predicting drug-resistant infections: A case study using extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) bacteremia. Infection control and hospital epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1017/ice.2019.17
A methodological comparison of risk scores versus decision trees for predicting drug-resistant infections : A case study using extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) bacteremia. / Goodman, Katherine E.; Lessler, Justin T; Harris, Anthony D.; Milstone, Aaron; Tamma, Pranita.
In: Infection control and hospital epidemiology, 01.01.2019.
Goodman, KE, Lessler, JT, Harris, AD, Milstone, A & Tamma, P 2019, 'A methodological comparison of risk scores versus decision trees for predicting drug-resistant infections: A case study using extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) bacteremia', Infection control and hospital epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1017/ice.2019.17
Goodman KE, Lessler JT, Harris AD, Milstone A, Tamma P. A methodological comparison of risk scores versus decision trees for predicting drug-resistant infections: A case study using extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) bacteremia. Infection control and hospital epidemiology. 2019 Jan 1. https://doi.org/10.1017/ice.2019.17
Goodman, Katherine E. ; Lessler, Justin T ; Harris, Anthony D. ; Milstone, Aaron ; Tamma, Pranita. / A methodological comparison of risk scores versus decision trees for predicting drug-resistant infections : A case study using extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) bacteremia. In: Infection control and hospital epidemiology. 2019.
@article{e68f94d9e56a4c48b825fc520dad7816,
title = "A methodological comparison of risk scores versus decision trees for predicting drug-resistant infections: A case study using extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) bacteremia",
abstract = "Background:Timely identification of multidrug-resistant gram-negative infections remains an epidemiological challenge. Statistical models for predicting drug resistance can offer utility where rapid diagnostics are unavailable or resource-impractical. Logistic regression-derived risk scores are common in the healthcare epidemiology literature. Machine learning-derived decision trees are an alternative approach for developing decision support tools. Our group previously reported on a decision tree for predicting ESBL bloodstream infections. Our objective in the current study was to develop a risk score from the same ESBL dataset to compare these 2 methods and to offer general guiding principles for using each approach.Methods:Using a dataset of 1,288 patients with Escherichia coli or Klebsiella spp bacteremia, we generated a risk score to predict the likelihood that a bacteremic patient was infected with an ESBL-producer. We evaluated discrimination (original and cross-validated models) using receiver operating characteristic curves and C statistics. We compared risk score and decision tree performance, and we reviewed their practical and methodological attributes.Results:In total, 194 patients (15{\%}) were infected with ESBL-producing bacteremia. The clinical risk score included 14 variables, compared to the 5 decision-tree variables. The positive and negative predictive values of the risk score and decision tree were similar (>90{\%}), but the C statistic of the risk score (0.87) was 10{\%} higher.Conclusions:A decision tree and risk score performed similarly for predicting ESBL infection. The decision tree was more user-friendly, with fewer variables for the end user, whereas the risk score offered higher discrimination and greater flexibility for adjusting sensitivity and specificity.",
author = "Goodman, {Katherine E.} and Lessler, {Justin T} and Harris, {Anthony D.} and Aaron Milstone and Pranita Tamma",
doi = "10.1017/ice.2019.17",
T1 - A methodological comparison of risk scores versus decision trees for predicting drug-resistant infections
T2 - A case study using extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) bacteremia
AU - Goodman, Katherine E.
AU - Lessler, Justin T
AU - Harris, Anthony D.
AU - Milstone, Aaron
AU - Tamma, Pranita
N2 - Background:Timely identification of multidrug-resistant gram-negative infections remains an epidemiological challenge. Statistical models for predicting drug resistance can offer utility where rapid diagnostics are unavailable or resource-impractical. Logistic regression-derived risk scores are common in the healthcare epidemiology literature. Machine learning-derived decision trees are an alternative approach for developing decision support tools. Our group previously reported on a decision tree for predicting ESBL bloodstream infections. Our objective in the current study was to develop a risk score from the same ESBL dataset to compare these 2 methods and to offer general guiding principles for using each approach.Methods:Using a dataset of 1,288 patients with Escherichia coli or Klebsiella spp bacteremia, we generated a risk score to predict the likelihood that a bacteremic patient was infected with an ESBL-producer. We evaluated discrimination (original and cross-validated models) using receiver operating characteristic curves and C statistics. We compared risk score and decision tree performance, and we reviewed their practical and methodological attributes.Results:In total, 194 patients (15%) were infected with ESBL-producing bacteremia. The clinical risk score included 14 variables, compared to the 5 decision-tree variables. The positive and negative predictive values of the risk score and decision tree were similar (>90%), but the C statistic of the risk score (0.87) was 10% higher.Conclusions:A decision tree and risk score performed similarly for predicting ESBL infection. The decision tree was more user-friendly, with fewer variables for the end user, whereas the risk score offered higher discrimination and greater flexibility for adjusting sensitivity and specificity.
AB - Background:Timely identification of multidrug-resistant gram-negative infections remains an epidemiological challenge. Statistical models for predicting drug resistance can offer utility where rapid diagnostics are unavailable or resource-impractical. Logistic regression-derived risk scores are common in the healthcare epidemiology literature. Machine learning-derived decision trees are an alternative approach for developing decision support tools. Our group previously reported on a decision tree for predicting ESBL bloodstream infections. Our objective in the current study was to develop a risk score from the same ESBL dataset to compare these 2 methods and to offer general guiding principles for using each approach.Methods:Using a dataset of 1,288 patients with Escherichia coli or Klebsiella spp bacteremia, we generated a risk score to predict the likelihood that a bacteremic patient was infected with an ESBL-producer. We evaluated discrimination (original and cross-validated models) using receiver operating characteristic curves and C statistics. We compared risk score and decision tree performance, and we reviewed their practical and methodological attributes.Results:In total, 194 patients (15%) were infected with ESBL-producing bacteremia. The clinical risk score included 14 variables, compared to the 5 decision-tree variables. The positive and negative predictive values of the risk score and decision tree were similar (>90%), but the C statistic of the risk score (0.87) was 10% higher.Conclusions:A decision tree and risk score performed similarly for predicting ESBL infection. The decision tree was more user-friendly, with fewer variables for the end user, whereas the risk score offered higher discrimination and greater flexibility for adjusting sensitivity and specificity.
U2 - 10.1017/ice.2019.17
DO - 10.1017/ice.2019.17
10.1017/ice.2019.17


text:
The Weeknd selling his LA house for $22M: See inside the mansion
Sarah Paynter
Social Links for Sarah Paynter
More On: super bowl 2021
Antonio Brown heads back to Florida home after wild Buccaneers exit
Tom Brady blown away by Buccaneers' Super Bowl ring
Gronk trolls Tom Brady over boozy Super Bowl celebration
Bill Belichick gets cryptic when asked about Tom Brady phone call
Talk about "Blinding Lights."
The five-car auto showroom in The Weeknd's $22 million mansion lights up in teal LEDs, à la "Tron." That's just one of the extravagances enjoyed by the singer, who will perform during the halftime show at Super Bowl 2021 this Sunday. But he still can't seem to offload his 12,547-square-foot mansion in Hidden Hills, California, which received a $3 million discount in December from its original $25 million listing price in June 2020.
The 30-year-old singer's wood-and-stone mansion near Los Angeles has 7 bedrooms, 9½ bathrooms, a full-size basketball court and a 300-bottle wine room lit by blue LEDs.
The 3-acre plot surrounded by Redwood trees has a 2-bedroom guest house, pool and a spa. As guests enter the home, the two-story foyer has a striking wall of windows that lets in natural light, according to the listing.
The 30-year-old singer's wood-and-stone mansion near Los Angeles has 7 bedrooms, 9½ bathrooms, a full-size basketball court and a blue LED-lit 300-bottle wine room.
realtor.com/getty images
The Weeknd's five-car auto showroom is illuminated by teal LED lights.
The singer's wood-and-stone mansion near Los Angeles has a 300-bottle wine room.
Inside, there is a kitchen with two islands, a family room with a fireplace and a bar, dual owner's bedrooms, an office, a fitness studio and a home theater.
The "Can't Feel My Face" singer, whose real name is Abel Tesfaye, purchased the home for $18.2 million in 2017, just after the house was built. Neighbors in the gated town have included Jennifer Lopez, the Kardashians, Drake and Miley Cyrus.
As guests enter the house, the two-story foyer has a striking wall of windows that lets in natural light.
The Hidden Hills home has 7 bedrooms, 9 1/2 bathrooms and a full-sized basketball court.
The house has dual owner's bedrooms, an office, a fitness studio and a home theater.
The three-time Grammy-winner purchased a $21 million penthouse in the Beverly West tower in Westwood in 2019 and rents a $60,000-per-month penthouse in Tribeca.
The Canadian singer — whose 2020 "After Hours" album was snubbed by the Grammys, to his dismay — recently made headlines for his video "Save Your Tears," in which he appeared to have radically altered his face through plastic surgery — although he actually didn't.
Listing agent Angel Salvador of the Agency did not respond to a request for comment.
Inside, there is a kitchen with two islands and a family room with a fireplace and a bar.
The "Can't Feel My Face" singer, whose real name is Abel Tesfaye, purchased the home for $18.2 million in 2017, just after the house was built.
A piano under a staircase is pictured. Neighbors in the gated town have included Jennifer Lopez, the Kardashians, Drake and Miley Cyrus.
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Now on Page Six
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Paige Desorbo on new 'Summer House' drama and her love triangle


text:
Drunk Driving – DUI
Online Sex Crimes
Sealing and Expunging Criminal Records
Child Abuse and Child Neglect
Client Reviews for Laurie Zimmerman
Client Reviews for Mark Zimmerman
STRESSED IN SARASOTA – INVOLVED IN A LAWSUIT?
Road Rage In Sarasota Florida
Are Bars in Sarasota Liable for Serving Drinks to Someone Who then Gets Into a Car Accident?
Florida #2 In Country For Pedestrian Fatalaties
Florida's Accident Report Privilege
Archive for the 'gun in school' Category
Two North Port Students Arrested for Bringing Gun to Imagine School
Wednesday, January 30th, 2013
Police arrest two boys at Imagine School in North Port for bringing a gun on campus. According to news reports, a 12 year old boy gave a 9mm handgun to a 13 year old boy, who had the weapon inside his backpack. Another student saw the gun and told a teacher. Police don't know where the 12 year old got the gun from yet. Both of these young teenagers are now charged with possession of a firearm on school property. They also face a long suspension and could be expelled from school.
3 Steps the Family Should Take to Protect Rights
Understand that each of these boys has TWO different cases to deal with: A criminal charge and a school discipline issue. These are VERY different situations and have to be dealt with independently because they are NOT related to each other. An attorney experienced with the school system and in the juvenile justice system can make a complicated case much easier on the family.
Decide whether to cooperate with the investigation or not. That decision is a tough one to make. An attorney can help the family decide when it makes sense to cooperate or fight the cases in court. These boys' future is at stake here, so it's important to get advice from an experienced criminal and education law attorney before talking to anyone.
How to deal with the single most explosive issue in the America today: Guns in schools. Because of tragedies like what happened in Newtown, Connecticut, the tolerance for any types of gun related incident in our schools is zero. Public opinion may not have an official role in court or in a school discipline hearing, but it does affect how these cases are treated. In the past there might have been more leeway for a first time offense, but today it's common for the system to come down hard on every case of guns in schools.
The common thread in all three of these steps is the need for an experienced criminal law and education law attorney. A lawyer experience in both is ideal. These boys are facing serious criminal charges that could keep them in juvenile detention for up to 21 days if a judge orders it during their probable cause hearing in the next few hours. What happens next can turn into a nightmare for a child who's made a bad decision, but who isn't a bad kid.
Mark Zimmerman is a board certified Criminal Defense Lawyer and an Education Law Attorney. He's been helping families and students dealing with criminal and school discipline hearings in Sarasota and Manatee Counties since 2000. Mark understands how tough these situations are for the whole family and has helped many students successfully get their lives back. Contact Mark Zimmerman for a free comprehensive case evaluation at (941) 364-8503 or fill out our online form at the top left side of this web page.
528 | posted at January 30th, 2013 in Criminal Defense, Education Law, gun in school, Guns in School | Tags: guns in school, imagine school, north port, teens arrested | Written by: Mark Zimmerman
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To Hell With Team Spirit, Parody Song Lyrics of Nirvana, "Smells Like Teen Spirit"
Song Parodies -> "To Hell With Team Spirit"
"To Hell With Team Spirit"
God cheerleaders are annoying. The chorus is from the point of view of the crowd who is watching a football game. The first verse is from the point of view of a cheerleader. The second, the cheerleaders boyfriend. The last verse is from the point of view of your average blond, air-headed cheerleader. Enjoy.
Pacing was practically perfect, though the pre-chorus of "Hello" is x15, not x16. Also, "friends" and "there" don't rhyme, but those are minor problems. 555.
The idea was to match the song, not really rhyme every line, Red Ant. Kareoke it and it will fit perfect.
The address of this page is: http://www.amiright.com/parody/90s/nirvana264.shtml For help, see the examples of how to link to this page.


text:
Zestawienia najwyższych na świecie wolno stojących budowli

Najwyższe wolno stojące budowle mające co najmniej 300 metrów wysokości
Zestawienie zawiera najwyższe na świecie wolno stojące budowle występujące na lądzie, stąd brak na niej konstrukcji wspieranych (maszty z linami napinającymi, częściowo olinowane wieże) oraz zakotwiczonych platform wiertniczych (dwie z nich są "wyższe" od Burdż Chalifa – Perdido Regional Host ma wraz z zakotwiczeniem 2717 m (2450 + 267 = 2717), a Ursa Platform 1306 m; platforma Stones ma mieć ponad 2900 m). Zestawienie to składa się głównie z wieżowców, wież i kominów.

W poniższym rankingu dla wieżowców podana jest wysokość absolutna (łącznie z antenami) i czasami różni się ona od strukturalnej wysokości tych budynków.

Chronologicznie najwyższe wolno stojące budowle na świecie

Zobacz też
 lista najwyższych konstrukcji w Polsce
 lista najwyższych budynków
 lista najwyższych kominów
 lista najwyższych wież

Przypisy

wolno stojące


text:
Climatesense-norpag
The Imminent Collapse of the CAGW Delusion.
1.The Problems with the IPCC - GCM Climate Forecasting methods.
Harrison and Stainforth say in: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/eost2009EO13/pdf
"Reductionism argues that deterministic approaches to science and positivist views of causation are the appropriate methodologies for exploring complex, multivariate systems ... where the behavior of a complex system can be deduced from the fundamental reductionist understanding. Rather, large, complex systems may be better understood, and perhaps only understood, in terms of observed, emergent behavior. The practical implication is that there exist system behaviors and structures that are not amenable to explanation or prediction by reductionist methodologies ... the GCM is the numerical solution of a complex but purely deterministic set of nonlinear partial differential equations over a defined spatiotemporal grid, and no attempt is made to introduce any quantification of uncertainty into its construction ... [T]he reductionist argument that large scale behaviour can be represented by the aggregative effects of smaller scale process has never been validated in the context of natural environmental systems ."
The modelling approach is inherently of no value for predicting future temperature with any calculable certainty because of the difficulty of specifying the initial conditions of a sufficiently fine grained spatio-temporal grid of a large number of variables with sufficient precision prior to multiple iterations. For a complete discussion of this see Essex:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvhipLNeda4
and for a detailed discussion see Section 1 at
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2014/07/climate-forecasting-methods-and-cooling.html
Section IPCC AR4 WG1 8.6 deals with forcings, feedbacks and climate sensitivity.It recognizes the the short comings of the models.The conclusions are in section 8.6.4 which concludes:
"Moreover it is not yet clear which tests are critical for constraining the future projections, consequently a set of model metrics that might be used to narrow the range of plausible climate change feedbacks and climate sensitivity has yet to be developed"
What could be clearer. The IPCC in 2007 said itself that it doesn't even know what metrics to put into the models to test their reliability (i.e., we don't know what future temperatures will be and we can't calculate the climate sensitivity to CO2). This also begs a further question of what erroneous assumptions (e.g., that CO2 is the main climate driver) went into the "plausible" models to be tested any way.
Even the IPCC itself has now given up on estimating CS – the AR5 SPM says ( hidden away in a footnote)
"No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies"
Paradoxically they still claim that UNFCCC can dial up a desired temperature by controlling CO2 levels .This is cognitive dissonance so extreme as to be irrational.There is no empirical evidence which proves that CO2 has anything more than a negligible effect on temperatures.
Equally importantly the climate models on which the entire Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming delusion rests are structured without regard to the natural 60+/- and more importantly 1000 year periodicities ( observed emergent behaviors) so obvious in the temperature record. The modelers approach is simply a scientific disaster and lacks even average commonsense .It is exactly like taking the temperature trend from say Feb – July and projecting it ahead linearly for 20 years or so. The models are back-tuned for less than 100 years when the relevant time scale is millennial.
Fig1 (Amended ( Green Line Added) from Syun-Ichi Akasofu) http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=3217
Figure 1 above compares the IPCC forecast with the Akasofu paper forecast and with the simple but most economic working hypothesis of this post (green line) that the peak at about 2003 is the most recent peak in the millennial cycle so obvious in the temperature data.The data also shows that the well documented 60 year temperature cycle coincidentally peaks at about the same time.
The temperature projections of the IPCC - UK Met office models and all the impact studies which derive from them have no solid foundation in empirical science being derived from inherently useless and specifically structurally flawed models. They provide no basis for the discussion of future climate trends and represent an enormous waste of time and money. As a foundation for Governmental climate and energy policy their forecasts are already seen to be grossly in error and are therefore worse than useless.
A new forecasting paradigm needs to be adopted.
2. The Past is the Key to the Present and Future . Finding then Forecasting the Natural Quasi-Periodicities Governing Earths Climate - the Geological Approach.
2.1 General Principles.
The core competency in the Geological Sciences is the ability to recognize and correlate the changing patterns of events in time and space. This requires a mindset and set of skills very different from the reductionist approach to nature, but one which is appropriate and necessary for investigating past climates and forecasting future climate trends. Scientists and modelers with backgrounds in physics and maths usually have little experience in correlating multiple, often fragmentary, data sets of multiple variables.
It is necessary build an understanding of the patterns and a narrative of general trends from the actual individual local and regional time series of particular variables. Earth's climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths.
It is not possible to forecast the future unless we have a good understanding of where the earth is in relation to the current phases of these different interacting natural quasi-periodicities which fall into two main categories.
a) The orbital long wave Milankovitch eccentricity,obliquity and precessional cycles which are modulated by
b) Solar "activity" cycles with possibly multi-millennial, millennial, centennial and decadal time scales.
2.2 The Present Warming in Relation to the Milankovitch Cycles.
Fig. 2 (From Wiki-Milankovic)
We are past the peak of the latest interglacial warming ( Fig.2) with a declining trend for the last 3500 years. (Fig 3)
2.3 The Quasi - Millennial Solar Cycle -Periodicity.
Fig 3 (http://www.climate4you.com/) -(See Humlum's overview section)
Note the peaks at about 10,000,9000,8000,7000,2000,1000 BP and then the latest peaks seen more clearly at about 990 in Fig 4 and about 2003 in Fig 5.
Fig 4. ( Christiansen and Ljungqvist 2012 (Fig 5) http://www.clim-past.net/8/765/2012/cp-8-765-2012.pdf )
Fig 5.
Fig 5 is the RSS data and Fig 5a the Hadcrut 4 data which shows a small difference in the timing of the millennial peak.
From Figures 4 and 5 the period of the latest millennial cycle is from about 990 to 2003 or 1,013 years. This is remarkably consistent with the 1,024 periodicity seen in the solar activity wavelet analysis from https://epic.awi.de/30297/1/PNAS-2012-Steinhilber-1118965109.pdf
It is of interest that the quasi millennial peaks in Fig 3 are from Greenland while the 1024 year periodicities in Fig 6 are from Antarctica.
2.4 The Quasi-Millennial Temperature Cycle - Amplitude
A useful empirical estimate of the amplitude of the NH temperature millennial cycle can made from the 50 year moving average curve (red) of Fig 4 above.It is about 1.7 degrees C from the 990 peak to the LIA minimum at about 1640.This is consonant with the estimate of Shindell, Schmidt,Mann et al Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2001/2001_Shindell_etal_1.pdf
2.5 The Solar Driver.
.The most important factor in climate forecasting is where earth is in regard to the quasi- millennial natural solar activity cycle which has a period in the 960 – 1024 year range. From Fig 4 above it is trivially obvious that the earth is just approaching ,just at or just past a peak in the millennial cycle.
The best proxy for solar activity is the neutron monitor count and 10 Be data.
The general increase in solar activity which accounts for the temperature rise since the Little Ice Age is obvious in the ice core 10 Be flux data between about 1700 and the late twentieth century.
Fig. 7 ( From Berggren et al) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL038004/full
My view ,based on the Oulu neutron count – Fig 8 combined with Figures 4,5, 6 and 7 above is that the solar activity millennial maximum peaked in Cycle 22 in about 1991.
There is a varying lag between the solar activity peak and the corresponding peak in the different temperature metrics. There is a 12 year delay between the solar activity peak and the millennial cyclic temperature peak seen in the RSS data at 2003.( Fig 5 above )
3.Forecasts
3.1 Long Term .
I am a firm believer in the value of Ockham's razor thus the simplest working hypothesis based on the weight of all the data is that the millennial temperature cycle peaked at about 2003 and that the general trends from 990 - 2003 seen in Fig 4 will repeat from 2003-3016 with the depths of the next LIA at about 2640.
3.2 Medium Term.
Looking at the shorter 60+/- year wavelengths the simplest hypothesis is that the cooling trend from 2003 forward will simply be a mirror image of the rising trend. This is illustrated by the green curve in Fig,1.which shows cooling until 2038 ,slight warming to 2073, then cooling to the end of the century.
3.3 Current Trends
The cooling trend from the millennial peak at 2003 is illustrated in blue in Fig 5. From 2015 on,the decadal cooling trend is obscured by the current El Nino. The El Nino peaked in March 2016. Thereafter during 2017 - 2019 we might reasonably expect a cooling at least as great as that seen during the 1998 El Nino decline in Fig 5 - about 0.9 C
It is worth noting that the increase in the neutron count in 2007 seen in Fig 8 indicated a possible solar regime change which might produce an unexpectedly sharp decline in RSS temperatures 12 years later - 2019 +/- to levels significantly below the blue trend line in Fig 5.
4.Conclusions.
To the detriment of the reputation of science in general, establishment climate scientists made two egregious errors of judgment in their method of approach to climate forecasting and thus in their advice to policy makers in successive SPMs. First, they based their analyses on inherently untestable and specifically structurally flawed models which included many questionable assumptions. Second they totally ignored the natural, solar driven , millennial and multi-decadal quasi-cycles. Unless we know where we are with regard to and then incorporate the phase of the millennial cycle in particular, useful forecasting is simply impossible.
It is fashionable in establishment climate circles to present climate forecasting as a "wicked" problem.I would by contrast contend that by adopting the appropriate time scale and method for analysis it becomes entirely tractable so that commonsense working hypotheses with sufficient likely accuracy and chances of success to guide policy can be formulated.
If the real outcomes follow the near term forecasts in para 3.3 above I suggest that the establishment position is untenable past 2020.This is imminent in climate terms. The essential point of this post is that the 2003 peak in Fig 1 marks a millennial peak which is totally ignored in all the IPCC projections.
Posted by Dr Norman Page at 12:38 PM
The great problem with global warming alarmism, is that it was never based on science. So whilst you are entirely right that the science does not support it, the truth is that it never supported it and instead it was pure belief that kept it going.
So, yes, if it were science, then disproving it ought to make it collapse, but because its closer to being a religion simple factual proof that it is wrong will never be enough.
Bob Armstrong March 23, 2016 at 1:40 PM
Right .
The field is approached more like R.A. Fisher analyzing which field in a grid of hybrids has the highest yield , ie : statistical observation in the absence of any overarching theoretical foundation .
However , the analysis of planetary temperature is totally an issue of non-optional classical physics .
When one looks for the fundamental enabling quantitative equations for the "trapping" of energy by electromagnetic , ie : spectral , phenomena , one finds they don't exist . Spectral phenomena cannot "trap" energy to a higher density than that input .
Only gravity , computing as it does as a "negative" energy , can and must and does to compelling accuracy by rather simply derived quantitative equations .
Yet it is ruled out of order by all trapped in the GHG paradigm .
David Appell March 25, 2016 at 11:02 PM
It is trivial to show that Bob Armstrong is wrong and to disprove the hypothesis that gravity accounts for Earth's temperature.
You only need to look at the Earth's outgoing spectrum at the top of its atmosphere:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/schmidt_05/curve_s.gif
Gravity doesn't predict that spectrum, or explain it in any way. Therefore, the hypothesis is wrong.
Vindaloo Bugaboo March 23, 2016 at 9:43 PM
It's interesting to note that the "science" is fraught with attempts to manipulate data and then force it to fit a computer modeling of the past climate record. When observations don't match the curve fit, change the data.
Anyone can see that climate science is not real science.
Dr Norman Page March 23, 2016 at 10:18 PM
Jack Greer March 24, 2016 at 3:47 PM
Dr. Page,
I noticed you felt compelled to truncate a trend segment in the WFT graphic, above, presumably to maintain depiction of a negative trend line. Dr. Svalgaard and other skeptics wouldn't approve. {wags index finger} ;^)
Dr Norman Page March 24, 2016 at 4:19 PM
Dr Svalgaard wouldn't approve because he doesn't understand how to work with complex multi-variable systems and so is always unable to make any useful forecasts. The blue line was drawn to simply to illustrate the working hypothesis that we are on the down trend of a millennial cycle cooling trend. Beyond 2015 the trend is currently obscured by the current short term El Nino.
When dealing with a thousand year cycle obviously you need to look over longer time scales see:
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-epistemology-of-climate-forecasting.html
"Grandpa says- I'm glad to see that you have developed an early interest in Epistemology. Remember ,I mentioned the 60 year cycle, well, the data shows that the temperature peak in 2003 was close to a peak in both that cycle and the 1000 year cycle. If we are now entering the downslope of the 1000 year cycle then the next peak in the 60 year cycle at about 2063 should be lower than the 2003 peak and the next 60 year peak after that at about 2123 should be lower again, so, by that time ,if the peak is lower, we will be pretty sure that we are on our way to the next little ice age.
That is a long time to wait, but we will get some useful clues a long time before that. Look again at the red curve in Fig 3 - you can see that from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2009 solar activity dropped to the lowest it has been for a long time. Remember the 12 year delay between the 1991 solar activity peak and the 2003 temperature trend break. , if there is a similar delay in the response to lower solar activity , earth should see a cold spell from 2019 to 2021 when you will be in Middle School.
It should also be noticeably cooler at the coolest part of the 60 year cycle - halfway through the present 60 year cycle at about 2033.
We can watch for these things to happen but meanwhile keep in mind that the overall cyclic trends can be disturbed for a time in some years by the El Nino weather patterns in the Pacific and the associated high temperatures that we see in for example 1998 ,2010 and especially from 2015 on."
You were very wrong in 2012. Have you learned nothing from that?
http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2016/03/them-that-cant-learn-doctor-dr-norman.html
You are being ,shall we charitably say, disingenuous ,in presenting the GISS data as a proof that my 2012 forecast was wrong. You are in fact acting as a propagandist for the Orwellian gate-keepers of the Land /Sea data who have steadily
manipulated the past to the point that their outputs no longer provide any basis for intelligent discussion of climate.( See also comment 2 to your post). The actual situation shows that my forecast is alive and well in the real world. See Fig at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/24/collapse-of-the-cagw-delusion-untenable-past-2020/
Obviously the current El Nino peak is a short term interruption of the decadal trend.
However I am happy and surprised that you agree with me about climate models. You need to draw the logical conclusions which derive from that agreement which again surprisingly the IPCC does but then ignores. Here is what my post said.
"Section IPCC AR4 WG1 8.6 deals with forcings,feedbacks and climate sensitivity.It recognizes the short comings of the models. The conclusions are in section 8.6.4 which concludes:
Paradoxically they still claim that UNFCCC can dial up a desired temperature by controlling CO2 levels .This is cognitive dissonance so extreme as to be irrational. There is no empirical evidence which proves that CO2 has anything more than a negligible effect on temperatures. "
As to the thousand year cycle you say "
"A thousand-year cycle? Based on what? Page doesn't say. Instead he is stuck in the past, not realizing that manmade forcings have changed everything."
This is entirely false - I presented evidence of the millennial cycle and its peak in 2003 +/- in Figs 3,4,5 and 6.The fact is that man made CO2 emission forcings have changed very little with regard to temperature but have substantially enhanced food production.
David Appell May 10, 2016 at 6:47 PM
Norman, no data support your 2012 claim -- you were as wrong as you could be. And now you're making essentially the same one again.
Some people never learn.
JM June 24, 2016 at 3:32 PM
I was once worried about this idea that manipulations by land-sea reconstructions were creating false data, then I did own reconstruction and got the exact same result. In fact it is rather surprising how robust the general trend is, you don't even need many samples or adjustments if you work with a constant subset of temperature stations over a time range.
Richard Muller went through the same exact experience as many (though, years later, and with a much more professional analysis than my amateur efforts) http://www.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052970204422404576594872796327348
Do you suppose he managed to join the Orwellian forces along with various americans, japanese, and british scientists? Somehow the Koch brothers funding led him to make the same fake manipulations as the rest? How would Ockham's razor apply here?
Doug Cotton March 30, 2016 at 5:07 AM
Josef Loschmidt (Maxwell's teacher) was the first to realistically determine the size of air molecules - quite a feat in the 19th century. There is no correct peer-reviewed published refutation of his gravito-thermal effect, which is based on and derived directly from the Second Law of Thermodynamics, that law also never proven incorrect. There's a US $7,500 reward offered at https://itsnotco2.wordpress.com if you or any reader can prove me wrong and produce a study confirming water vapor warms to the extent implied by the IPCC. Furthermore, the Loschmidt effect is now proven empirically in hundreds of 21st century experiments. The existence of this gravitationally induced temperature gradient means the IPCC doesn't have a leg to stand on regarding CO2.
Hence there is no need for James Hansen's guesswork that radiation from a cold atmosphere must be heating an already-warmer surface, because it is the force of gravity acting on molecules between collisions that produces both a density gradient and a temperature gradient. The Second Law of Thermodynamics tells us that in Nature there is an autonomous propensity for a system to move towards the state of thermodynamic equilibrium, which state has maximum entropy. However, this state in a force field is NOT isothermal. That is, there exists a non-zero temperature gradient which we can understand and quantify using the Kinetic Theory of Gases.
This fact, known about by physicists since the 19th century, completely demolishes the greenhouse. Hansen assumed isothermal conditions without GH gases, but that is NOT what the Second Law of Thermodynamics indicates will tend to occur. See http://climate-change-theory.com for more detail.
In the state of thermodynamic equilibrium (that is, maximum entropy) in a column of the troposphere the pressure from above and below any horizontal plane is equal. Because pressure is proportional to the product of temperature and density, and because there can be no transfer of energy or matter across any internal boundary when there is thermodynamic equilibrium, we can deduce that, for any horizontal plane, there must be equal numbers of molecules crossing upwards as there are crossing downwards, and the mean kinetic energy of each group while crossing the plane must be equal.
Now for the temperatures to be equal when crossing this means that (because molecules gain Kinetic Energy with downward motion) there must have been lower mean molecular Kinetic Energy (temperature) above the plane and warmer temperature below. Hence there is a stable equilibrium temperature gradient resulting from the entropy maximization process described in statements of the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
Erl May 10, 2016 at 6:04 PM
The observation of cycles from the past informs us that climate has never been stable. To suggest that the cycles of the past will likely be evident in the future is plausible. However, the system evolves continuously. It has a life.
The energy available via solar radiation varies little. But, according to the level of cloud albedo the energy absorbed by the oceans to depth, to little effect in changing surface temperature in the ocean itself varies a lot.
Cloud albedo depends upon the temperature of the air in relation to its dew point. Absolute humidity varies little but the temperature of the air a lot. Its range of variation increases with altitude due to the influence of ozone that absorbs energy at 9-10um that emanates from the Earth itself. https://reality348.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/25-35c2b0s.jpg?w=1496
The ozone content of the air depends on the zonal wind in high latitudes, a proxy for the the rate of intake of ozone poor NOx rich mesospheric air into the atmosphere at the poles....that gets to be immediately mixed in across the polar vortex per medium of polar cyclone activity that is strongest at 300hPa to 50 hPa, convection and simple migration to lower latitudes. Much more aggressive in Antarctica, hence the ozone deficit in the southern hemisphere.
The zonal wind depends on the interaction of the solar wind that changes on 200 year time scales and the Earth's magnetic field that we know little about. In fact we don't know a whole lot about either.
But it appears that a cooling trend has been established: https://reality348.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/6-the-poverty-of-climatology/
"But it appears that a cooling trend has been established: https://reality348.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/6-the-poverty-of-climatology/"
Actually all kinds of temperature measurements are setting record highs. The HadSST3 monthly SST has been the warmest in the record for 13 consecutive months.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_monthly_globe_ts.txt
Dr Norman Page May 11, 2016 at 11:17 PM
My 2012 forecast of a cooling trend from 2003 on is looking good with the rapid collapse of the current El Nino. See figs 5 and 5a above.The cooling trends are truncated to exclude the current El Nino as an end point. The Enso events are temporary aberrations which don't have much influence on the trends – see the 1998 and 2010 events in Figs 5 and 5a.
David Appell May 11, 2016 at 11:56 PM
Doctor Norman Page PhD: Your 2012 forecast was as wrong as wrong could be, as I showed here:
http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-department-of-oops-case-number-1.html
Who are you trying to fool, anyway?
David Appell May 12, 2016 at 12:11 AM
Norman:
http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2016/05/dr-norman-page-phd-still-batshit-insane.html
If we are going to argue that it is sensible to trim ENSO events from the end of the span in order to get the trend line we want, don't you think we should trim the ENSO event at the start of the time span as well?
Mr Page,
RSS has many different data sets available. Which is the data set shown in Fig 5? TLT? Which as of this month looks like https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZGbNp0ph7p1s4lyTiMhw2g_yos3sPFeu24W80CrWyos/edit?usp=sharing since 2003?
David Appell June 24, 2016 at 3:29 PM
It looks to be the RSS data for TLT, but Norman completely cherry picks his trend starting and stopping dates, and ignores considerations of statistical significance.
http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html
Page's trend line from 2005 to 2015 is *not* statisticlly significant -- from 1/2005 to 12/2015, I calculate the statistical significance of the (slight warming) linear trend to be only 52%.
But Norman Page clearly isn't interested in such things....
By the way, the trend from 1/2005 to present, 5/2016, is a much larger +0.12 C/decade, and statistically significant at the 99% confidence level.
So "trimming" ENSOs matters a great deal. There's no scientific justification for it.
I mean, yes it is obvious he has picked one of the few data sets that just ignores the poles completely, which is where a lot of the warming happens, and then truncated only the inconvenient ENSO events, and then the data still doesn't really support any notion of a cooling trend since 2003....
Norman is a classic case of denialism, which shows it can happen even to PhDs who have some specific science training in their field but are unable to translate that to elsewhere.
Dr Norman Page June 25, 2016 at 3:01 PM
David Statistical calculations of complex data sets of emergent phenomena have no physical meaning.Their outcomes depend entirely on the start and end points chosen for the time series .They dont provide any useful information.In this case only an idiot would start or end an analysis of a time series near the peak or trough of an
Enso event.
I am putting forward what I consider a useful working hypothesis based on some simple observations.
Figs 3 -6 show that a millennial temperature cycle peaked at about 2003/4.
Figs 7 -8 show that this peak may well correspond to the millennial solar activity peak at 1991 .The delay is because of the thermal inertia of the oceans.
The establishment make a gross error of scientific judgement by projecting straight ahead beyond the millennial inflection point at about 2003. - See Fig 1
What is not to like? Y'all are not seeing the wood for the trees.
David Appell July 4, 2016 at 9:48 AM
"Figs 3 -6 show that a millennial temperature cycle peaked at about 2003/4."
Among the years 1880-2015, 2003 ranks as only the 10th warmest, and 2014 the 14th warmest(NOAA data).
Since then there have been six warmer years.
Some "inflection point!"
David Appell June 29, 2016 at 12:02 AM
"I am putting forward what I consider a useful working hypothesis based on some simple observations."
Your past hypotheses have been wildly wrong:
You have lost the right to be taken seriously.
"The establishment make a gross error of scientific judgement by projecting straight ahead beyond the millennial inflection point at about 2003. - See Fig 1"
The establishment????
That was from a paper written by one person.
How is one person the "establishment," Norman.
Explain.
All of the IPCC, Met Office and NASA projections and their scary propaganda are based on various versions of the warming trend shown in Fig 1 labelled IPCC prediction. None of them honor the hypothesized inflection point at the millennial temperature peak at about 2004.
You are certainly free to ignore any working hypothesis or evidence which might make you uncomfortable and question your beliefs and assumptions.
Why, based on the physics, should there be an "inflection point" at 2004??
Twitter @norpag
If you find this site interesting and useful you might like to support the upkeep by donation below.
Dr Norman Page
PhD - Geology


I never find your style boring, so I'm reading this with great interest and following how you pull your look together so well. I love the idea of the pleather skirt ... hmmmm ... I may have to investigate that further as a winter alternative to my usual jeans!
Aww...thanks Helen! I've plenty experience of rushing out and buying the trends and then finding that my preferred looks are made up of the classics! I've rediscovered some my old favourites like my DKNY biker jacket over the last couple of weeks and so I feel armed and ready to go into Autumn, with the help of my wish list items!
I've already nicked a lot of your outfits (sorry, not sorry!!) & feel I'll be doing the same throughout A/W - except for the short skirt, can't do them!
Steal away Sarah....it's not different to what I do when I see something on someone else that I love!
Mwah Joanna! That is a compliment indeed! I'm still learning but I have a much better idea of what suits me now and more importantly what I will actually get the wear out of. I'm getting there....like you I'm hoping I'm over the experimenting stage!
Hope you are going to be doing a show and tell on your little burgundy sweater Natalie! I do love my knitwear in the colder months and I've got a lot of the basics covered but I like a couple of statement pieces......so ideas would be most welcome!
I also stick to a monochrome/simple style.
I have had success with the Topshop black dress you reviewed previously.
In the next couple of months I intend on investing in a new breton, some converse high tops and a cream jumper.
Inspired by your basics. I'm looking for a nice pair of sneakers too. I feel that my feet look really big in white sneakers, but I'm going to try them again. Love your honed style. Going through your blog and revisiting your past outfits. Love it!
Well I don't think that's a boring list at all! I can see how all these pieces will work as part of a slimmed- down wardrobe, and as you say you can add in more trend-driven pieces to ring the changes. We actually have a few items in common - I've just been lucky enough to receive a little windfall, so I'm having a little clear out of my own, and replacing a few bits that I love as well as making a few new additions! I tried several Zara pleather skirts, but the quality was poor on all of them. I went for a Warehouse a-line number in the end. At £38 it's a little more money, but I'd say it's worth the extra for the better quality. Worth a try!
Phew...this post is getting a much better reception than I anticipated! It would seem quite a few ladies are of the same opinion as in the classics are a good place to start!
I'm about to get my last pay packet so I am trying to spend it wisely, so I'm confident I'm spending it on the right things!
I don't think it's boring either - it makes sense to me! And it's quite nice going back to a pair of Converse every now and then. That's how I felt in February when I wore Converse instead of Adidas when we all met up in February as I knew there were going to be a few pairs kicking around. But I've only just started looking at the autumn stuff coming in yesterday ... I have been somewhat slow. And I like your ruthlessness - I said I would do my wardrobe when the kids were at home over the hols but it's been too busy! But I will sort it!
Oh good Sue....you are backing me up too! You can't get much more classic than a pair of white Converse can you?! I remember seeing you in the Converse....and you did indeed look cool, little did you know how ahead of the game you were! I saw lots of trendy girls sporting them in London last weekend, they seem to be having a right old revival, although they never really go out of fashion do they!
Your hair is looking SENSATIONAL at the moment Michelle!


We're really sorry but we don't seem to have any offers or events for Clinkers Tavern.
We're sure there must be something happening here but they just haven't told us about it! Please do mention this to Clinkers Tavern when you next visit them.


text:
Are alternative mutual funds gaining traction?
Canadian liquid alts at the one year mark
December 11, 2019 | 2 min read
Early in 2019, Canada's mutual fund landscape evolved with the introduction of a new regulatory regime enabling fund managers to use alternative strategies in funds offered to retail investors. Nearly one year on, the industry is taking stock.
At a recent webinar hosted by RBC Investor & Treasury Services, Carol Derk, Partner and Ron Kosonic, Partner at Borden Ladner Gervais LLP (BLG), discussed the current state of play, and considerations for asset managers looking to incorporate alternative mutual funds into their offerings.1
Liquid alts funds provide retail investors with access to the benefits of alternative investments, in a flexible and liquid structure
The first year of this new regulatory regime has seen regulators provide some rule clarification, and exemptive relief where warranted, providing further guidance to the industry as it moves forward with liquid alts
Fund managers considering converting existing hedge funds to a liquid-alts structure need to determine whether their overall investment strategy can work within the rule constraints for liquid alts, including a review of whether investor approval might be required, and whether changes need to be made to material contracts
Alternative mutual funds' distinguishing features
Under the revised rules, a new category of mutual funds, known as "alternative mutual funds" or "liquid alts", may be offered to retail investors through a simplified prospectus.2 In contrast to conventional mutual funds, alternative mutual funds can use an expanded range of investment strategies, including borrowing cash for leverage, short-selling beyond the limited restrictions that apply to mutual funds, and significantly investing in physical commodities and specified derivatives. Alternative mutual funds include the following key features:3
Leverage: Alternative mutual funds are able to use leverage in three distinct ways—through derivatives, short-selling, and cash borrowing, up to 300 percent of the fund's Net Asset Value (NAV). The 300 percent limit is measured by reviewing the aggregate value of cash borrowing, plus the aggregate market value of short-sold securities, plus the aggregate notional amount of derivatives that have not been entered into for hedging purposes
Borrowing: Alternative mutual funds may borrow cash, subject to a "hard cap" of 50 percent of NAV, for investment purposes. The borrowing terms should match standard commercial terms, in accordance with industry practice, and the lenders must be entities that would qualify as a custodian under National Instrument (NI) 81-102 (e.g., banks and trust companies in Canada, as well as certain affiliates).
Short-selling: Alternative mutual funds are permitted to engage in the short-selling of securities up to a limit of 50 percent of NAV, again subject to certain requirements (including that cash borrowing, combined with short-selling, cannot exceed a "hard cap" of 50 percent of NAV).
Derivatives: Alternative mutual funds are permitted to use specified derivatives for leverage or to create synthetic leverage (they are not subject to any cover requirements), and are not subject to the requirement (as conventional mutual funds are) that the derivatives counterparties they deal with have a designated credit rating.
Rehypothecation: Pursuant to NI 81-102, an alternative mutual fund is permitted to deliver collateral to its futures commission merchant, derivatives counterparty, lender or borrowing agent if certain conditions are met. One of the conditions is that the records of the persons holding the assets must show that the fund is the beneficial owner of the assets posted by it as collateral.
'Seeking relief' helps modify the rules
In reviewing the ways in which liquid alts differ from conventional mutual funds, BLG's Ron Kosonic commented that, "Some of the important details in the new regulatory regime are relatively complicated. As a result, the initial year of implementation within the financial services industry has seen some regulatory modifications that better reflect industry practice."
For example, Fidelity Investments (Fidelity) sought relief from the provisions affecting alternative mutual funds relating to the collateral limitations for short-selling and rehypothecation of collateral for cash borrowing. In respect of the short-selling rules, Fidelity (and others subsequently) requested and obtained relief from the collateral limitations imposed if the borrowing agent is not a custodian, or sub-custodian, under NI 81-102.
The initial year of implementation has seen some regulatory modifications that better reflect industry practice
Fidelity also sought relief from the custodial provisions of NI 81-102 requiring that the records of the persons holding the assets show that the fund is the beneficial owner of assets it has posted as collateral, in order to permit the rehypothecation of that collateral.
Of the two areas of relief, the latter proved to be more complex, as industry participants and legal counsel expressed a variety of views. Ultimately, the request was withdrawn after Ontario Securities Commission staff represented to Fidelity, and the industry as a whole, that NI 81-102 does not preclude rehypothecation, and clarified the meaning of "beneficial owner" for the purposes of the rule.
Other forms of relief have also been obtained. One that has proven popular with fixed income managers removes the hard cap on shorting government securities as long as all other restrictions are adhered to, permitting such liquid alts to hold short positions in government securities of up to 300 percent of the fund's NAV.
Fund strategies continue to evolve
The session included a discussion of how the new rules might be incorporated into an asset manager's overall strategy. Presenters suggested managers of existing hedge funds, who are considering converting their funds to alternative mutual funds, should determine how and whether their strategies can work within the rules imposed by NI 81-102 without requiring regulatory relief. They may also want to review whether investor approval might be required. "Traditional mutual fund managers and dealers alike see liquid alts as an opportunity to expand their product offerings," noted Carol Derk.
One year in, the rules governing the implementation of alternative mutual funds continue to be clarified. As the range of liquid alt funds in Canada grows, retail investors will see greater opportunities to broaden their diversification, and to benefit from alternative investments offered in a flexible and liquid mutual funds structure.
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RBC Investor & Treasury Services (November 2019) Webinar: Liquid Alts Year One Report Card
RBC Investor & Treasury Services (December 2018) New Rules Announced for Alternative Mutual Funds in Canada
Borden Ladner Gervais (November 6, 2019) Alternative Mutual Funds – One Year Highlights


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Kamala D. Harris (D-CA) became the first African American to represent California in the United States Senate on January 3, 2017. Born in Oakland, California, Harris graduated from Howard University in Washington, D.C., before returning to California to attend the University of California, Hastings College of the Law. After earning her juris doctor degree, Harris served as the deputy district attorney in Alameda County, California, before becoming the managing attorney in the San Francisco District Attorney's Office and then chief of the Division on Children and Families, where she established California's first Bureau of Children's Justice. Harris was the first African American and first woman elected district attorney of San Francisco (2004–2011) and attorney general of California (2011–2016). On November 3, 2020, she became the first woman and the first African American and Asian American elected vice president of the United States, on the ticket with former senator and vice president Joe Biden of Delaware. They were sworn into office on January 20, 2021.(Photo: Senate Historical Office)
Committee & Office Staff
Contested Senate Elections
Filibuster & Cloture
Information provided by the Senate Historical Office.
Questions about Senate History?
Email a Senate historian.


David: "Oh, I wonder who that could be! It's television's Moira Rose!"
Moira: "That's television's mom, to you."
"Asbestos Fest" is the third episode in the fourth season of Schitt's Creek. It is the forty-second episode overall.
Asbestos Fest, a fundraiser organized by Jocelyn to rid the town of its asbestos, has Moira as its heading act, who plans to resurrect one of her old television routines for the show. Beyond the exasperation Jocelyn feels towards Moira, who will not commit to any one of three routines on the day before the show, Asbestos Fest may not go on at all. At least not with Moira, because of a comment made by David which makes her start working on her psyche. Meanwhile, Roland mentions that he has "a guy" who would be a perfect addition to the motel staff, which leads to Stevie admitting to Johnny that they really could use the help, especially as the latter won't do any of the literal heavy lifting. In deciding to give Roland's "guy" a chance, Johnny and Stevie may come to regret their decision despite the background story of that guy. And David and Patrick are having a disagreement about four teen boys who are constantly hanging out in front of their store. While Patrick believes they are scaring away legitimate customers, David thinks they add ambiance to the establishment, and are legitimate customers in that they do make purchases, even if it's only been a single pack of gum. David's perspective may be tainted by the fact that they constantly compliment him on his fashion sense. Alexis, who's in the store to ask Patrick for help with her school work, may have a clearer picture of what is happening with the four teens based on her own experience as a teenager.


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A surveillance toolkit in development for detecting vegetable leafminer
We are two years into a Hort Innovation funded research project to prepare Australia for effective management of the vegetable leafminer (VLM, Liriomyza sativae), and our work has begun to culminate in a 'surveillance toolkit' — user-friendly resources that will help Australia prepare for potential incursions.
A new and destructive agricultural pest, VLM is a tiny 'agromyzid' fly with a taste for a wide variety of fruit and vegetable crops. It reached the Australian mainland in 2015, and has established in one of the northernmost communities of the Cape York Peninsula.
The surveillance toolkit will advise both government and industry stakeholders and will provide answers to two very important questions: how do we survey for VLM, and how do we diagnose suspicious damage?
How do we survey for VLM?
VLM has four life stages: egg, larva, pupa and adult. Female adults lay eggs inside a leaf, which hatch after approximately three days. The larvae then spend about a week feeding on the plant tissue beneath the leaf surface, creating the characteristic leaf mines, before emerging and dropping from the leaf and burrow into the soil to form pupae. Adults emerge from the pupae about nine days later.
A vegetable leafminer larvae (toplit on the left and backlit on the right) mining inside a leaf (Image credit: Elia Pirtle, cesar).
It is the larval life stage that gives a unique opportunity for surveillance. Adults are notoriously hard to detect as they have short lives and populations can pop up and die away quickly. However, the leaf mines created by larvae are permanent, and will last long after the larvae emerge and the adults disperse away. Therefore, targeting surveillance on these permanent mines increases the window for a successful detection.
Still, mines can be hard to spot, and an effective visual surveillance plan must take into account the effort needed to detect them. So we have measured the 'detectability' of mines in vegetable crops by conducting mock-surveillance trials, where growers, agronomists and other industry representatives were invited to conduct short survey walks of crop rows, in which simulated mines were hidden. We then validated these mock-surveys by running short surveys in gardens and weeds in the Torres Strait that compared the detectability of simulated mines with real VLM mines. We found that mines have relatively low detectability, with most surveyors only spotting about 20% of the mines in a crop row. This means surveyors must spend enough time searching a given area to have a satisfactory chance of detecting a very low density of damage.
But even with a good survey plan that focuses on detecting mines, there is still a big problem that must be overcome — VLM is not the only fly that creates these leaf mines! In fact, there are several fly species in Australia that create indistinguishable mines on the VLM hosts (see the picture below).
What's more, leaf mines are often empty and there is no chance to collect a larva and rear it out to adulthood, or send it away for molecular DNA testing to confirm its species. So you can't always determine whether you are looking at a run-of-the-mill Australian leafminer damage, or an incursion of the exotic VLM!
Only the center image shows vegetable leafminer damage, while the others are caused by native Australian leafminers (Image credit: Elia Pirtle, cesar).
So how do we diagnose suspicious damage?
Fortunately, an empty leaf mine is not always what it seems! After a leafminer larva has emerged from its mine, it leaves behind waste and cells, and cesar researchers have developed a novel molecular test to determine if suspicious damage was caused by VLM from these trace amounts of DNA. Last year, tests conducted in the Torres Strait showed that VLM DNA can be detected in month-old empty mines, with a success rate of 73%.
This is very exciting news, as it dramatically reduces the amount of effort that would need to be spent searching damage for a live larva and subsequent diagnostic efforts. Instead, this method would allow surveyors to place leaves bearing mines straight into ethanol and then send to a lab for testing.
The VLM surveillance toolkits will be ready for release soon, so stay tuned for more updates!
Dr Elia Pirtle, cesar
epirtle@cesaraustralia.com
This project is supported by funding from the vegetable R&D levy and the Nursery and Garden levy through the grower owned Research & Development Corporation, Hort Innovation. Project partners are: cesar, AUSVEG, Plant Health Australia, and the Northern Australia Quarantine Authority. Special thanks go to Nursery & Garden Industry Australia and the Queensland Department of Agriculture for their support.
Liriomyza sativae on a siratro weed leaf (Image credit: Elia Pirtle, cesar)


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FILE - In this Jan. 20, 2021, file photo, a Russian medical worker, right, administers a shot of Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine to a patient in a vaccination center in Moscow, Russia. Authorities in four Russian regions this week made COVID-19 vaccinations mandatory for those working in certain sectors of the economy in a bid to boost Russia's slow immunization rates as coronavirus infections continue to soar. Moscow was the first to announce the measure on Wednesday, June 16, 2021 and the surrounding Moscow region, the Siberian region of Kemerovo and the far eastern Sakhalin promptly followed suit. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, File)
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Tuesday, Gov. Cuomo announced a plan for those unable to travel to vaccination sites to receive their vaccine from the comfort of their own home.
New York State, in partnership with counties, established local points of contact to expand access to vaccines through an in-home vaccination program for those who are homebound due to physical limitations, cognitive impairment, other chronic conditions, a lack of transportation, and/or visual impairments, and who do not have access to supports that may help them physically go to an existing vaccination provider.
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If you want to uninstall Teamstudio for Notes Edition 19a, you want to check this list of files that the product is using, and can safely be removed. Remember to remove any reference to them in Notes.ini in the ADDINMENU entry. The information was gathered from the User Guide shipped with the product.