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A Sea-Surface Miracle!
Maurizio Morabito (omnologos)	 2012/03/16 1 Comment
AGW Climate Change Data Global Warming Omniclimate Science Skepticism
Global Warming HadSST3 Science Skepticism
Overlong "On the adjustments to the HadSST3 data set" blog post just out (after a few technical glitches) at Judith Curry's comes to a conclusion that aounds like yet another climate-related miracle…
HadSST3 selectively removes the majority of the long term variations from the pre-1960 part of the record. ie. it removes the majority of the climate variation…
…that cannot be attributed to anthropogenic global warming!
How unexpected!
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Missing Heat 3 – Implications For Policymaking
AGW Climate Change Data Global Warming Omniclimate Policy Science Skepticism
Global Warming Kevin Trenberth Politics Science Skepticism
Trenberth's "missing heat" should be a problem of physics, only it's handled by amateur homeo-climate-paths.
Actually, it's much more than a problem of physics. It has vast policy implications.
If models are not useful in a decadal timescale, such as they can predict a strong warming for a period of minimal or even no warning, then what use is there for models? What government (apart from North Korea…) would make it difficult for people to heat up their homes in the next decade with the explanation that is going to be warm in 2070 anyway?
People do not average-out their lives across decades or centuries: each and every one of us have to go through each and every day first.
If I freeze to death today at -10C, I will not enjoy the warmth of July at +30C even if the average is +10C, perfectly compatible with human life. The same can be said of plants and animals. If I plant an olive tree in my London garden, it will die of cold in February even if the yearly average is in theory just enough to make olive trees survive in the open. If a nasty mosquito species migrates from warmer places during an August heatwave, still if that species cannot survive the following winter it will not be around until next migration opportunity during a future heatwave.
A purely statistical, multi-year approach to modelling the climate is in theory useless for policymaking (similar considerations could be made for non-regional projections, but that is too long a story here – read "How Space-Time Digested AGW" if interested). And if we end up with 15 years of incorrect projections without even a volcano for an excuse, then whatever physical explanation there is, policymakers would be much wiser in keeping climate scientists at arm's length.
Missing Heat 2 – The Climate Coincidence Revisited
Maurizio Morabito (omnologos)	 2012/02/08 4 Comments
AGW Climate Change Data Global Warming Omniclimate Science
Global Warming Science
The Missing Heat of homeo-climate-path Kevin Trenberth is not just a matter of increasing the number of measurement points. Something else is…amiss.
As noticed by David Whitehouse of the GWPF for quite some time (my emphasis):
In the past decade the atmospheric CO2 levels have increased from 370 ppm to 390 ppm and using those figure the IPCC once estimated that the world should have warmed by at least 0.2 deg C. The fact that the world has not warmed at all means that all the other climatic factors have had a net effect of producing 0.2 deg C of cooling.
But there is more. The counterbalancing climatic factors have not only compensated for the postulated AGW at the end of the decade they have kept the global annual average temperature constant throughout the past 10-15 years when the AGW effect wants to increase it. The key point that makes this constancy fascinating is that for every value of CO2 there is an equilibrium temperature that is higher the greater the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. In other words, the higher CO2 concentration at the end of the decade exerts a stronger climate forcing than at the beginning of the decade.
This makes what has happened in the past decade all the more remarkable. Because the greenhouse effect wants to force the temperature up which in the absence of a cooling influence is what would have happened, the fact that the temperature has remained constant indicates that whatever has been cooling the planet has had to increase in strength at precisely the same rate as the CO2 warming in order to keep the temperature a constant straight line.
This means that for 10-15 years the combined effect of all the Earth's climate variability factors have increased in such a way as to exactly compensate for the rise in temperature that the increased CO2 would have given us. It is not a question of the earth's decadal climate cycles adding up to produce a constant cooling effect, they must produce an increasing cooling effect that increases in strength at exactly the same rate as the enhanced greenhouse effect so as to keep the earth's temperature constant.
Can it really be the case that over the past 15 years the sum total of all the earth's natural climatic variables such as changes in solar irradiance, volcanoes, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic Oscillation, all of which can change from cooling to warming over decadal timescales, have behaved in such as way as to produce a cooling effect that is the mirror image of the warming postulated by the anthropogenic climate forcings from CO2 and other greenhouse gasses, from the changing water vapour, from tropospheric ozone, and from a clearing aerosol burden?
This can be visualized as following. Imagine there is a quantity ExpT that can be computed beforehand (x(t)=x(t-1)+0.1) (blue in the graph). Consider also the actual measured MeasT values (y(t)=0.5*rand()) (red). Fix x(0)=y(0)=1 and plot their evolution (and divergence).
Now, of course DiffT=y(t)-x(t) (yellow) becomes increasingly larger as x(t) increases whilst y(t) hovers around 0.5. A centered running 5-point average AvgDiff5Cent (green) will mimic ExpT, entering progressively more negative territories. In fact the correlation between AvgDiff5Cent and ExpT is for all intents and purposes, one.
So if ExpT is going up because of CO2 emissions, what kind of magic is intervening to generate the AvgDiff5Cent counterforcing so that the total is zero on a decadal timescale? (And yes, the small small small amount of warming actually reported should obviously be taken as close to undetectable, ie zero).
Even if we had perfect 100% coverage of the whole planet, this question would remain open.
I'm sure Kevin "saying it is natural variability is not an explanation" Trenberth understands this point. It's a case of missing physics, more than heat.
(Just noticed Judith Curry has hit on the same nail – great minds really think alike 🙂 )
Killing FOI
AGW Climate Change Data Global Warming Omniclimate
Culture FOI Global Warming
(I have left this comment at Andy Revkin's "A Legal Defense Fund for Climate Scientists")
Andy – I'm very surprised by the phrasing of your FOI question. So what if there is "fishing" involved?
The important bit about FOI is that it applies no matter what the intentions of the requester are.
Otherwise every Government agency will always argue FOI exemption by claiming the requester is "fishing" for information. And especially so if the requester is a journalist (who is presumed to be looking for something to publish, therefore pretty much single-mindedly interested in "fishing").
Intention-dependent FOI is not freedom, rather a gracious (and always temporary) concession on the part of the State. It's like trying to define as democratic a Parliament you can vote for only if invited to the electoral polls.
Are you sure decades of struggle to get FOI in place should be considered as wasted just to defend publicly-funded scientists who can't understand their rights and duties, and pretend FOI is a waste of time when in reality it's a clerical activity?
ps I've been subject to FOI In the past and anything I write at work can potentially be used in a court of law
Peter Gleick, Astroturfer?
AGW catastrophism Climate Change Data Global Warming Omniclimate
Global Warming History Pacific Institute Peter Gleick Politics
UPDATE: For those interested in abrupt climate changes of the past
I recently surmised Peter Gleick be an astroturfer trained to make greens look less than…bright. This article would be compatible with that hypothesis, as the author shows no grasp of the history of climate, including what are known as Younger Dryas and the PETM.
It should also be obvious to all that the longer we look in the past, the lower our ability will be to discern one decade from another, and then one century from another. The climate might as well have changed dramatically every year a million years ago, still the paleo traces will only show some kind of long-term average of it.
We cannot seriously compare contemporary records with those of the past without considering that. It would be like saying more things happen now than in the Middle Ages just because more people write now than in the Middle Ages.
The continuous mentioning of the fabulously flawed 97% figure (it's 97% of 77 out of 1,372) is just the cherry on the cake. Is Exxon funding the Pacific Institute?
On The Slow, Painful (and Deadly) Demise Of The IPCC
Maurizio Morabito (omnologos)	 2011/12/16 15 Comments
AGW catastrophism Climate Change Data Global Warming Omniclimate Science Skepticism
Culture Global Warming Science Skepticism
Climategate 2.0 is helping filling some knowledge gaps, for example in the way the IPCC has been slowing killing itself, and several thousands humans to. The following concerns Regional Projections, and it's a tragedy of communication.
Willingly or not, the IPCC has become a source of deadly confusion exactly because it has provided the information its audience wanted, even if it was scientifically unprepared to prepare that information.
AGW catastrophism Climate Change Data Global Warming Omniclimate Science
Global Warming History New Scientist paleoclimate Science
I have a confession to make…it ain't much fun to talk climate change at a time where AGW and especially Catastrophic AGW are taking blows left, right and center. So in order to keep this blog lukewarm, here's a heartful "thanks!" to New Scientist for providing the context for planetary temperatures so far:
Around 500 million years of Earth temperature
And yes, our current climate WARMING catastrophe is at the bottom right.
A Truly Climategate Pathetic Paper
AGW catastrophism Climate Change Data Omniclimate Science Skepticism
Climategate 2.0 History Science Skepticism
<3373> Bradley:
I'm sure you agree–the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don't want to be associated with that 2000 year "reconstruction".
And here it is: "Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia" aka "Mann, M. E., and P. D. Jones, Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(15), 1820, doi:10.1029/2003GL017814, 2003."
We present reconstructions of Northern and Southern Hemisphere mean surface temperature over the past two millennia based on high-resolution 'proxy' temperature data which retain millennial-scale variability. These reconstructions indicate that late 20th century warmth is unprecedented for at least roughly the past two millennia for the Northern Hemisphere. Conclusions for the Southern Hemisphere and global mean temperature are limited by the sparseness of available proxy data in the Southern Hemisphere at present.
Reconstructions of hemispheric mean temperatures over roughly the past two millennia employing proxy surface temperature data networks with sufficient spatial and seasonal sampling, temporal resolution, and retention of millennial-scale variance, support previous conclusions with regard to the anomalous nature of late 20th century temperature at least about two millennia back in time for the Northern Hemisphere. To the extent that a 'Medieval' interval of moderately warmer conditions can be defined from about AD 800– 1400, any hemispheric warmth during that interval is dwarfed in magnitude by late 20th century warmth. The sparseness of the available proxy data in the Southern Hemisphere lead to less definitive conclusions for the SH or global mean temperature at present.
Pielke Jr is wrong
Global Warming Real Climate Russia heat wave
One can slice and dice trends at will about the latest RC silliness…it doesn't matter. Radiative effects are negligible in the troposphere, and heat waves are a matter of weather, not statistics.
Take for example the recent mild UK weather. OF COURSE CO2 has nothing to do with it. Temperatures are higher than normal because southerlies bring warm air over from France. A proper analysis of October/November trends (and we did have quite a few very cold days already) would have to include a research on wind patterns.
Anything that doesn't, it's pseudoscience.
Socrates, Or Pointing The Way For The Future Of Climate Science
BEST Culture Dissent Global Warming Roger Pielke Jr. Science Skepticism
Roger Pielke Jr laments the withering of climatology:
Climate science — or at least some parts of it — seems to have devolved into an effort to generate media coverage and talking points for blogs, at the expense of actually adding to our scientific knowledge of the climate system
Actually, it was December 2009 when I wrote in the pages of the Spectator (UK):
This might be the most important lesson of the 1974 report on global cooling: that we need to grow up, separate climatology from fear, and recognise — much as it pains politicians and scientists — that our understanding of how climate changes remains in its infancy.
Here we are, almost two years later. For example, what do we understand about the past? Willis Eschenbach at WUWT shows it in the non-smoothed BEST reconstruction graph:
"BEST global surface temperature estimates. Gray bars show what BEST says are the 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for each datapoint"
And what do we understand about the future? Patrick Frank in Skeptic.com's Reading Room:
"The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES-SPM-5) A2 projection from Figure 1 showing the physical uncertainty of the projected temperature trend when including ±10.1% cloud error (light shading), or the uncertainty in greenhouse gas forcing (dark shading). Inset: A close-up view of the first 20 years of the A2 projection and the uncertainty limits."
In other words: for the past, all we know for sure it's that the error bars cover from -5C to +3C if we go back to 200 years ago. For the past, all we can estimate for sure it's that error bars cover an enormous span if we move forward 100 years (even removing cloud uncertainty, still the 2100 error goes from -10C to +16C).
For all we know, Romans were conquering a world that was 50C colder than today, and oceans will boil before the XXII century. Or vice-versa.
Please do not start speculating about uncertainty as a reason for doing nothing – it isn't.
Think of science instead: what's the way out of this cul-de-sac made up of giant error bars? How can our understanding finally leave its infancy? The way out has actually being indicated already, by a guy born in 469BC:
Socrates was wise in that he knew the he knew nothing, whereas others were unaware of their own ignorance.
If and when such a realization will become widespread, only then climate science will be able to mature away from silly manipulations, towards the approach so nicely described by Professor Sir Bernard Lovell to David Whitehouse:
One evening we unrolled the pen recorder data in a long ribbon down the corridor outside the main observing room. "Now," he said, "look at the data. Get to know it." His point was that before us was what the universe was saying, and that it was more important than any theory." Data is never inconvenient. It beats theory every time.
An unexamined climate is not worth studying…
B.E.S.T. Not Yet
BEST Global Warming Science Skepticism
Plenty of brouhaha everywhere about the pre-pre-pre B.E.S.T. papers. Ignorant reactions undoubtedly already abound.
I surmise that the four pre-pre-pre-papers will get torn to pieces in the next few days (here's my biting off the UHI article, followed by Steven Mosher's). The quality of the BEST work will be measurable in the way they will react to that ( (a) making the necessary adjustments, (b) ignoring the lot, or (c) circling the wagons).
The jury is still much out. In the case of Anthony Watts, so far it's been a strong (b). Assuming B.E.S.T. is not a collection of unprofessionals, such a reaction makes little sense.
OTOH we do not even know if B.E.S.T. is really about science, or something else. As I commented at Judith Curry's blog:
Read what you write Judith! A PR strategy! Did Bohr have a PR strategy, or Maxwell, or Dirac.
The BEST PR strategy is not the best PR strategy because it became so important as to become visible. It's THE news, as you can read at WUWT. And a total failure: science takes once again the back seat, and who cares if BEST does it for visibility rather than politics?
Your results and your work have just been buried by your team. Congratulations! /sarc
No placebo pill will ever work if it's got "PLACEBO" written on it: likewise, no PR strategy will work if it's so much in-your-face to its potential audience.
General Circulation Models – Another Failure (by a factor of 10, possibly 100)
GCM Global Warming Science
UPDATE: I guess it's GENERAL CIRCULATION Models (not "Global Climate Models") and never again will I trust a journalist (when did I say that already… 😉 ) –
From MarsDaily (links added by me):
New analysis of data sent back by the SPICAM spectrometer on board ESA's Mars Express spacecraft has revealed for the first time that the planet's atmosphere is supersaturated with water vapour.
[…] descriptions of the vertical distribution of water vapour – a key factor in the study of Mars' hydrological cycle – has generally been based upon global climate models. This gap in the data has now been addressed by the SPICAM (Spectroscopy for Investigation of Characteristics of the Atmosphere of Mars) imaging spectrometer on Mars Express.
[…] Surprising new results [published in this week's Science], based on SPICAM data obtained during the northern spring and summer, indicate that the vertical distribution of water vapour in the Martian atmosphere is very different from previous assumptions.
[…] Until now, it was generally assumed that such supersaturation cannot exist in the cold Martian atmosphere: any water vapour in excess of saturation was expected to be converted immediately into ice. However, the SPICAM data have revealed that supersaturation occurs frequently in the middle atmosphere – at altitudes of up to 50 km above the surface – during the aphelion season, the period when Mars is near its farthest point from the Sun.
Extremely high levels of supersaturation were found on Mars, up to 10 times greater than those found on Earth. Clearly, there is much more water vapour in the upper Martian atmosphere than anyone ever imagined. It seems that previous models have greatly underestimated the quantities of water vapour at heights of 20-50 km, with as much as 10 to 100 times more water than expected at this altitude. […]
Times Atlas: Suicide By Wikipedia? – UPDATED
Arctic Global Warming Greenland Science Skepticism Times Atlas Wikipedia
UPDATED: Sort of a confirmation for the below as Hanlon at the Daily Mail has posted an article where HarperCollins, the publishers of the Times Atlas Greenland fiasco, try to argue that they only depicted white the areas with ice>500m thick.
Strange things are always afoot, in matters of climate.
Incredibly, and despite having been shown the wrongness of their ways from multiple and even warmist sources, a spokesperson from the £150-a-piece Times Comprehensive Atlas of the World still maintains their debunked "AtlasGate" Greenland map is correct:
"But a spokeswoman for Times Atlas defended the 15% figure and the new map. "We are the best there is. We are confident of the data we have used and of the cartography. We use data supplied by the US Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado."
As the story unfolds, I would like to point to something about the new map that is strange indeed: the level of detail. See for example this comparison from Real Science:
There are two possible interpretations for that: either some people at the Times Atlas have decided to reinvent the world adding fantasy features to a previously fully white map; or, much more likely, they have used some other, existing map of Greenland, embellishing to conform to the Times Atlas style.
In fact, and intriguingly, and twice embarrassingly, there exists one map that strongly resembles the Times Atlas' "15%" Greenland (see also the Greenland Physical Map from TourTeam.dk). And the embarrassing bits are: it's one map used on Wikipedia. Worse, it's supposed to be only showing ice sheet thickness, not "cover" as claimed (it doesn't highlight the areas where the ice is less than 10m/30ft thick).
Look for example at the outline of Eastern sides of Kong Christian IX Land and Kong Christian X Land, the nearest to Iceland (brown on the Times Atlas to the left, green on Wikipedia to the right).
Look now at the Times Atlas' Greenland map of 1999 (below, to the left) and the fact that their 2011 map (center) is so much alike the Wikipedia Greenland ice-sheet thickness (right) becomes even more evident.
So the following series of events is consistent with the observations:
Times Atlas personnel read or listen from somewhere that the Greenland ice sheet is melting
They open the Wikipedia page on the Greenland ice sheet
As if by magic…that page contains a map of Greenland
Times Atlas personnel convert that map to the Times Atlas high-quality standard
Now where's the evidence for it? Where is it indeed, as Michael Corleone would have asked.
This doesn't look like a good way to enhance the reputation of a publication like the Times Atlas. As usual, it's the stubborness of their response the real problem, perhaps even more than the original error. One is left wondering how many more mistakes have been made (perhaps them too, miraculously similar to maps posted on Wikipedia), mistakes simply too small to immediately notice. And the publishers and editor will never admit one anyway.
Global Warming Statistics 101
admin	 2011/06/18 No Comments
Global Warming Science Skepticism
Averages can only tell you so much, and that's quite little. As "global warming" is based on worldwide averages, it should be then always looked at judiciously and with a good deal of curiosity to figure out what is happening above and beyond the simple figure that is an average temperature.
Say, one lives in Placeville, a town where it's -20C in January, +20C in July. Average is zero C (32F).
Imagine now, winters warm by 10C, summers cool by 5C. So it's -10C in January, +15C in July. Average is 2.5C (36.5F).
Headline news: "Placeville heavily hit by global warming, average temperatures up by 2.5C". When the real-life news is, it's much cooler than before: still very cold in January, and now not even warm in July.
This is such a simple concept, I am always amazed how many people don't get it. But then few grasp the most elemental aspects of statistics. And I wish three people in the world understood what "global warming" might be about.
"Glory" a loss to Climate Modelling, not Science
Maurizio Morabito (omnologos)	 2011/03/05 No Comments
Seems like global warming is such a primary point of concern, satellites vital for its study always get booked on dodgy rockets, with predictable results.
Bye bye Glory? In truth, it's not "climate science" that will suffer from the loss. It's climate modelling. Because, as in previous circumstances, with an operational lifetime of 3 years instead of 30, Glory was not meant to study the "climate", rather to provide supplemental information to climate models.
And that's no "Earth observation".
The Real Climate Deniers (Plus A Prediction On Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature's Results)
For as long as predictions will be difficult, especially about the future, "denialism" will as a matter of course remain appropriate only in the context of past facts, i.e. in the "denial" that they actually occurred.
So let's set aside the widespread, idiotic name-calling against anybody having any question regarding impending climate catastrophes: because the real Climate Deniers are very easy to spot.
And it's the people that to this day still live in the fantasy world where Climategate was a non-event and had no consequence (esp. on the science of climate change). You know, the people that haven't read Andrew Montford's GWPF report, or the findings of the Muir Russell review, or Lord Oxburgh's comments about reconstructing temperature trends for the past 1,000 years (Q36 in the link) (or, erm…my preface to the Italian translation of Montford's report).
Or they have read the lot, but due to their denialist attitude they can't fathom the meaning of what's written in there.
Everybody else might have instead noticed by now that a major. widely-funded, "independent, replicable, inclusive, transparent…approach [to] estimate…global temperature change" (and "the uncertainties in the record") is expected to come to fruition sometimes next year. And yes, Climategate had an important role in getting Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) up-and-running.
QED…all those labelling of non-believers as "deniers" has simply been a kind of preventative attack. And finally, it has backfired.
ps my predictions on the BEST results:
According to the Berkeley group, the Earth's surface temperature will have risen (on average) slightly less than what indicated by NASA, NOAA and the Met Office
Differences will be on the edge of statistical significance, leaving a lot open to subjective interpretation
Several attempts will be made by climate change conformists and True Believers to smear the work of BEST, and to prevent them from publishing their data
After publication, organised groups of people will try to cloud the issue to the point of leaving the public unsure about what exactly was found by BEST
New questions will be raised regarding UHI, however the next IPCC assessment's first draft will be singularly forgetful of any peer-reviewed paper on the topic
We will all be left with a slightly-warming world, the only other certitude being that all mitigation efforts will be among the stupidest ideas that ever spung to human mind.
Have Things Changed Much From 1969?
AGW catastrophism Climate Change Data Global Warming History Omniclimate
"Expert Says Arctic Ocean Will Soon Be an Open Sea; Catastrophic Shifts in Climate Feared if Change Occurs". Yes, it's 1969.
What else has changed?
Well, one thing is that at the time, Walter Sullivan of the New York Times could still afford to write "Other Specialists See No Thinning of Polar Ice Cap" in mid-size letters near the title. As for the rest:
Arctic sea ice cover is "vulnerable"
An ice-free Arctic Ocean is presented as harbinger of European "deserts" with "great ice sheets…farther north"
"Focal point" in the research is "the use of giant computers to simulate the world's weather patterns"
Climatologists keep following the latest trends, wildly extrapolating them in the future. For example, there is a Soviet-American consensus among specialists around prediction of "continued cooling in step with an expected decline in sunspot activity through the nineteen-eighties", after a "climate cooling during the last decade or two". Likewise, "until recently there was a suspicion that the warming trend of the century preceding 1940 was a by-product of the industrial revolution" (yes, CO2 emissions)
However, there are other interesting details:
Sullivan presents as common knowledge ideas such as "progressive shrinkage of the Arctic pack ice over the last century"
"About one quarter of the Arctic pack melts each summer"…that would be very peculiar, since according to Cryosphere Today even in 1979 it was more like two thirds
Nortber Untersteiner is interviewed about a report of his in Naval Research Reviews showing that "the climatic trend in the Arctic has turned toward cooling"
There is a mention of a 1893 Fridtjof Nansen report of "43 feet thick" Arctic pack, followed by others "indicating a steady thinning of the pack that, the data suggest, could vanish by 1970 or sooner". These conclusions are not supported by "under-ice journeys of American nuclear submarines" (why don't they use submarines nowadays, instead of clowning around for Catlin?)
Here's What Gives Science A Bad Name
TerraDaily reports today of Jeffrey Kiehl's "Lessons from Earth's Past", actually published by Science magazine a month ago. A cursory reading is what is needed to understand how flawed Kiehl's whole idea is, of focusing on a question like:
when was the last time Earth's atmosphere contained as much carbon dioxide as it may by the end of this century?
(Kiehl's answer: 35 Million years ago)
How flawed is that question? Very, very flawed. For the geologically-challenged readers of this blog, here's an in-depth commentary of Kieh's rag(*) by Doug L. Hoffmann at Resilient Earth, summarized by this quote:
All of the factors outlined above clearly point to the fact that geological forces, operating over tens of millions of years, caused Earth's climate to cool dramatically during the past 35 million years. Claims that the cooling was caused by a reduction in atmospheric CO2 have been refuted by many. Studies of the Late Ordovician glaciation found that, without orbital forcing, ice sheets can grow with CO2 levels as high as 10 times preindustrial atmospheric level. Yet Kiehl maintains this fiction to the end, even to the point of reintroducing claims based on computer models.
People that don't believe in geology and are obsessed with temperatures can limit themselves to Wikipedia's helpful graph "65 Million Years of Climate Change", showing high temperatures around 35 million years ago indeed. But when seen in context, the 35Myr point is part of a whole different story than "CO2 concentrations driving the planet's temperatures": it was the end of the Eocene and of a steady decrease in temperatures, the time of the Antarctic glaciation and a brisk decrease in temperatures, the start of relatively cool 10 million years (still, warmer than today) etc etc.
And so Kiehl's context-free "it's all CO2" work ends up looking like a tirade against people driving on a motorway at 70mph, written by somebody obsessed with analyzing what happens when people drive at 70mph, yes, but in a crowded market.
Science, it ain't: it's just ever-the-misnomer "Science" magazine.
(*) poetic license taken
Greenland Ice Cap Receding And Disappearing!
In 1930 of course.
This is getting boring. Seemingly all one has to do in order to find instances of past climate change, totally invalidating the "unprecedented" claim attached to today's, is to guess the right combination of words for this or that search engine.
AGWers should have tried earlier, in the age before the Internet, when fantasies such as labeling any unusual weather pattern as "anthropogenic" would have been easier to maintain.
For Green "Science" (and The Guardian and The New York Times), Any Rubbish Will Do
catastrophism Culture Data Omniclimate Science Skepticism
As I get labeled "most controversial" (thank you, whoever), let me mention a perfect yet extraordinary example showing how any claim, however far-fetched and based on little or no science at all, can be dressed as the latest scientific warning about impending doom caused by humanity's excesses, without of course anybody involved showing any sign of critical thinking.
I am talking about the "Guardian news" (from Sep 12, 2007) that "man-made chemicals [should be] blamed as many more girls than boys are born in Arctic" (that is, twice as many girls as boys). This is specific to the Guardian as every other link I have found about it, can be traced back to a Paul Brown reporting from Nuuk, Greenland, that
Twice as many girls as boys are being born in some Arctic villages because of high levels of man-made chemicals in the blood of pregnant women, according to scientists from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (Amap)
[…] The scientists measured the man-made chemicals in women's blood that mimic human hormones and concluded that they were capable of triggering changes in the sex of unborn children in the first three weeks of gestation. The chemicals are carried in the mother's bloodstream through the placenta to the foetus, switching hormones to create girl children.
This would have been an incredible finding, shattering a lot of established ideas on the roles of chromosomes in humans. And it was picked up as such by treehugger.com (no comment) and a scienceblogs site called (the irony!) "Island of Doubt". Its author James Hrynyshyn wrote on Sep 13, 2007, that the news was "not good", proceeding then to equivocate when pointed out how outerwordly it all sounded.
What makes this all exemplary is that it would have taken just a few minutes to figure out the holes in the story. First of all, the "findings" were:
"disclosed at a symposium of religious, scientific and environmental leaders in Greenland's capital, Nuuk,…organised by the Patriarch of the Orthodox Church, Bartholomew I, which is looking at the effects of environmental pollution on the Arctic."
More importantly, there was very little about the "findings" in the AMAP communications at the time (and even less, today). The 2006 State of the Arctic Environment Report (SOAER) says nothing at all about skewed sex ratios. An AMAP report from 2001 titled "Human Health" mentions two works by Mocarelli and others showing a change in the boys/girls ratio due to exposure to dioxin by the fathers (and so it would have nothing to do with the Guardian's claim)
Mocarelli P, Brambilla P et al. Change in sex ratio with exposure to dioxin. Lancet 1996; 348: 409.
Mocarelli, P., P.M. Gerthoux, E. Ferrari, D.G. Petterson, S.M. Kieszak, P. Brambilla, N. Vincoli, S. Signorini, P. Tramacere, V. Carreri, E.J. Sampson, W.E. Turner and L.L. Needham, 2000. Paternal con- centrations of dioxin and sex ratio of offspring. The Lancet 355:1858-1863
There is also an AMAP report from 2000 (mentioning the excess girls as per the Mocarelli's studies, but also the absence of such an excess in a similar situation in Taiwan). An AMAP poster from 2002 mentioning a decrease in the number of male newborns in whales (from 56% to 44%, far far less than what claimed about humans).
What would explain the enthusiasm leading to the…unorthodox announcement at the Orthodox Church symposium rather than through the usual scientific channels (or even, an official press release), is the AMAP report from 2006 saying that "Two new special projects have been initiated: one investigating contaminants in relation to sex ratio (based on the results from the PTS report)". Hoever, in the Conclusions and Recommendations of the PTS report one reads something extremely vague:
Statistically significant associations have been found between blood concentrations of total PCBs (Arochlor 1260), lead and a number of non-specific reproductive and developmental health effects such as the prevalence of low birth weight, premature births, stillbirths and major structural malformations. Serum concentrations of total PCBs in maternal blood also appear to be associated with impacts on newborn sex ratios.
Anybody with a half-curious mind would have also read the literature mentioned by AMAP, for example this article from 2006, "Pathways of endocrine disruption during male sexual differentiation and masculinization", where the abstract ends:
There is currently no definitive evidence that exposure of humans to environmental chemicals can induce testicular dysgenesis and/or impair masculinization, though pathways via which this could potentially occur are established.
It should have gone without saying that even if AMAP had found that "definitive evidence", of course they wouldn't just have seen two girls for every boy, but an enormous number of boys with various degrees of "endocrine disruption".
There's more, thanks to our hindsight of 2011. Of course the Guardian article has never been followed by any update (you know there's something particularly fishy when all mainstream media but one refuse to report a story). How about AMAP? Here's from their 2009 report, with some added emphasis:
POPs exposures have been suggested as the reason for observed alterations in birth sex ratios in animal populations and occasionally in human studies. New research results with pigs, which have a similar reproductive system to humans, indicate that exposure of sperm to environmentally pertinent organochlorine mixtures in vitro adversely affects oocyte development, polyspermy, sperm fertility and embryonic development. However, a comparison of existing population studies, one including Arctic countries, did not reveal any definitive or consistent relationship between POPs, sperm X:Y ratios or male:female birth ratios. Emerging data from a larger cohort in the Russian Arctic indicate that increasing maternal PCB concentrations may be associated with an initial effect of increasing the male:female newborn ratio; however, causality has not been determined and the increase in the ratio appears to disappear in the highest concentration group. The possible effects of other contaminants have not been determined. Systematic epidemiological studies, including all possible confounders and other relevant contaminants, must be performed before any conclusive statements can be made about contaminants and sex ratios in Arctic populations
[…] Results from the INUENDO study…This study indicates that POP exposure might be involved in changing the proportion of ejaculated Y-bearing spermatozoa in human populations. Inter- country differences, with different exposure situations and doses, may contribute to varying Y:X chromosome ratios. However, the higher proportion of Y sperm did not support the observed increase in the female:male ratio reported previously
[…] In general, no definitive conclusion could be drawn from these studies. Emerging data from a larger cohort in the Russian Arctic indicate that increasing maternal PCB concentrations may be associated with an initial effect of increasing the ratio of male:female newborns. The Russian results appear to confirm the trend reported in the previous AMAP Human Health assessment (AMAP, 2003); however, causality has not been determined and the increase in the ratio appears to disappear in the highest concentration group
Good luck with finding any of that in the Guardian. In the meanwhile, the initial rubbish gets repeated verbatim, for example in a highly-praised book by Sara Wheeler, titled "The Magnetic North" and reviewed with the brains fully shut by Holly Morris for the New York Times:
One boggling case in point: "Endocrine-disrupting chemicals handed up the food chain have triggered changes in the sex of unborn children in the first three weeks of gestations, resulting in the birth of twice as many girls as boys in some villages in Greenland and among the Inuit nations of eastern Russia."
No prize if you notice the full certainty of Wheeler (and Morris): HAVE TRIGGERED CHANGES. I am sure AMAP has written to the New York Times protesting already.
Yet Another Amazing Detail About Climate Science
They've got incredible supercomputers to play with, but still our climate scientists build up global anomaly charts from only a handful of stations (1,000 or so if the guys at Climate Monitor are not mistaken, or one on average for every area the size of Bangladesh).
You'd think world-rescuing climate specialists would have computers and bandwidth enough to handle data from a million stations by now, or a billion even. But they say they don't even need that.
Why not? Because they have discovered that 1,200-km grids are ok. Why are they ok? Because
temperature anomaly patterns tend to be large scale
How so? Here's the root of it all, from 1987:
The 1200-km limit is the distance at which the average correlatiom coefficient of temperature variations falls to 0.5 at middle and high latitudes and 0.33 at low latitude
Who would believe that it all depends on a correlation coefficient of…0.5?
Sun Rises In Greenland, Sets In (A Few) AGWer Brains
AGW catastrophism Climate Change Data Global Warming Omniclimate Skepticism
(many thanks to Sancho and the guys at Climate Monitor for inspiring this blog)
Just like with the drowning polar bears that weren't in 2008, the Daily Mail is now the source of another idiotic "it's climate change!" story. Ver shortly, reports of the town of Ilulissat having seen the sun two days earlier than usual after the darkness of winter, have been presented as the result of "melting ice caps" that "have lowered the horizon allowing the sun to shine through earlier".
Of course this was unsubstantiated speculation, starting from the simple fact that in the direction of the rising sun (due South, in these days in Ilulissat) there is no ice to melt. There have been a few theories on the "inexplicable" phenomenon. The simplest one by far, is the Novaya Zemlja Effect (h/t Fabrizio). Perhaps, it should go without saying:
The Novaya Zemlya effect will give the impression that the sun is rising earlier than it actually should…
Livescience.com manages to make a good article out of it. The best one can do about this sad story is to use to check which AGWers have been victim of scichosis (h/t TomFP), "whose sufferers use perverse extension of uncontroversial science to frighten themselves and others witless":
1- Thomas Posch, of the Institute for Astronomy of the University of Vienna (proving there's always a scientist available to wildly speculate to a reporter about anything)
2- The Daily Mail Editor (as the article is unsigned)
3- Accuweather's Mark Paquette
4- An untold number of bloggers I cannot be bothered to link to
5- That's it
Very few people have fallen for the latest Daily Mail pearl. Maybe it's because of Climategate, maybe catastrophism is going out of fashion (see Guardian's "false claim" story, a journalistic indictment of the AAAS). Hope at last!
Arctic Sea Ice On The Edge (literally!)
Continuing in my investigation of how "unfair" the situation is regarding Arctic sea ice and its forever-negative anomaly (forever-negative since it is calculated against a reference is pretty much the most sea ice the Arctic will ever going to see), some curious results about where the 1.1 million square kilometers are missing from.
The edges, that is.
As of Jan 16, Cryosphere Today reports 1.131M sq km of missing Northern Hemisphere sea ice area.
If you go into more details, the situation is:
Bering sea, missing .1M sq km
Sea of Okhotsk, missing .15
Greenland sea, missing .1
Baffin/Newfoundland area, missing .4
Hudson Bay, missing .3
Total is 1.05M sq km already. If you then look at all the other areas, you will find them pretty much all
At around zero anomaly
Full of ice (i.e. there is no space for additional ice area)
In other words, there is no way that those places could contribute a positive anomaly that would balance out the negative ones listed abov. The only Arctic place that could contribute anything positive to the anomaly is actually the Barents Sea (where it is currently zero).
And where are all these non-full negative-anomaly areas placed? Why, they are all at the edges of the Arctic ocean.
This strongly indicates it's not a generalized Arctic warming that is behind the "missing Arctic sea ice area"/negative anomaly, but something connected to sea currents.In fact, the Hudson Bay situation shows this nicely: it's not the actual Bay that is missing most of the ice, it's the Hudson Strait linking the Bay to the (negative-anomaly) Baffin/Newfoundland area.
The Weather Is Really Changing (In 1953) (plus Attributions and CO2)
AGW catastrophism Climate Change CO2 Emissions Data Global Warming greenhouse effect History Omniclimate Science
Yes it's another old New York Times article, this time from July 12, 1953. Stories of unusual weather, retreating ice caps, extreme events (at the time it was tornadoes). Yada yada yada.
Couple of interesting details. Journalist Leonard Engel provides a list of past attributions to human activities:
Unusual weather inevitably stirs up speculation as to the cause, in part, no doubt, because we like to talk about the weather anyway. And prominent event coincident with the exceptional weather is apt to be blamed. Heavy rains during World War I were popularly attributed to artillery bombardments in France. During the Twenties and Thirties it was fashionably to lay abnormal weather (along with other odd occurrences) to changes in the sunspot cycle. Today the popular villains of freak weather are atom-bomb tests and the activities of rainmakers.
Engel mentions also greenhouse gases and in particular the concentration of CO2
In 1850 the air contained somewhat less than thirty parts of carbon dioxide per 1,000 parts of air. In the hundred years since, industrialized, urbanized man has poured unprecedented quantities of carbon dioxide out of home and factory chimneys […] As a result, there are now thirty-three parts of the gas per 1,000 in the atmosphere instead of thirty.
Assuming Engel was just victim of some conversion mistake, and he meant 330ppm, it is curious to note that the figure is somewhat off Keeling's original 1955 value of 310ppm.
Arctic Sea Ice? There Is Only So Much Space For Arctic Sea Ice…
Very quickly, a couple of notes on something that keeps bothering me…Arctic sea ice is the darling of AGW catastrophists, obviously not because its extension getting away from the 1979 maximum has been the most consistent "warming signal" (sorry, hurricanes!). But the geography of the Arctic makes it very difficult to beat the maximum.
For example looking at yesterday's figures from Cryosphere Today (visual estimates) we have the Kara Sea, the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Basin and the Arctic Basin pretty much at 100% or slightly lower of maximum-ever sea ice. Only thing, there is no way they can get ABOVE that 100% line, simply because they are already 100% covered by sea ice.
Greenland sea ice runs at -0.05 million square kilometers (84% of its possible maximum, but it usually peaks later in the season). Similar the situation for the Chukchi Sea, the St Lawrence area and the Barents Sea.
So we're down to where the sea ice actually is missing: Baffin (it's half of what it should be, but what is should be is "completely covered by sea ice), Hudson Bay (almost the same), Okhotsk (there is 0.1 m sq km missing, despite the ongoing drama, and again the expected value seems to be "completely covered").
It is obviously very difficult for anybody to be above the zero-meter line if the zero-meter line is defined as the top of Mount Everest. Likewise, we should never expect news of a "healthy" Arctic sea ice extent unless it gets chocked-full of ice: in other words, we should never expect news of a "healthy" Arctic sea ice, really…
Therefore, the use of Arctic sea ice extent to investigate the effects of climate change, and in particular the use of the late-1970s as reference period, is bound to be limited.
Good (Unrecognized) News From American Scientist
In their weekly "Science in the News" e-mail, the folks at American Scientist have just managed to include a series of good news about the climate, without much of an acknowledgment. So here they are:
"scientists have been drilling beneath the Dead Sea to extract a record of climate change and earthquake history stretching back half a million years. So far, their findings include a wood fragment that's roughly 400,000 years old": linked NYT article also includes news about the Dead Sea's water levels increasing by 300m between 50,000 years ago and now, and "wildly varying layers of salt and mud [representing] dry periods and wet ones" indicating how big local climate changes have been in the past, and how many of them there have been, without much human intervention
"researchers have found an ancient mummified forest in a nearly treeless section of the Canadian Arctic that is now surrounded by glaciers": indeed, linked National Geographic article mentions a time in the past when "the Earth's climate was drastically changing", and mentions another NGS article yet, showing how forests contain in-built mechanisms to quickly expand to new areas when the conditions are warm enough. Hopefully nobody's suggesting those mechanisms haven't evolved in the remote past..
"the White House has issued guidelines to insulate government scientific research from political meddling and to base policy decisions on solid data. Under the guidelines, government scientists are free to speak to journalists and the public about their work": actually, there is more, as mentioned in the linked NYT article, e.g. with clear wordings that would have hit hard the "hide the decline" Team: "the agencies are instructed that when communicating a scientific finding to the public, they should describe its underlying assumptions. For instance, they are told to describe "probabilities associated with both optimistic and pessimistic projections""
I do expect AS to come out against current mainstream AGW theory sooner rather than later (sooner than the hopeless critical-thinking-free Scientific American, at least). One little chip at a time, even the strongest wall will come down.
A Christmas Present From The New York Times
Not that they really wanted to be so generous, mind you…but in the printed (IHT) version of this long article about the Keelings and CO2 concentration measurements, somebody at the NYT decided to include this graph:
And so millions around the world will be able to see that temperatures have gone up and down in the past 400,000 years, with a characteristic shape (sharp increase with an even more marked peak, slow decline, then sharp increase again) that is currently being replicated (and the top temperatures of the past haven't been reached yet). The usual reply is that in the past it's been changes in the Earth's orbit what drove the temperature changes: and yet, even if CO2 is the "culprit" this time there is evidently something in the Earth's climate that:
Keeps temperatures from going unimaginably high
Counteracts the warming, whatever the CO2 concentrations
Mantains temperatures on average as much colder than at present
In the medium and long run, humanity should be preparing for a cooler world. Preparation means of course adaptation, the one thing nobody wants to do.
Explanation For GISS' Global Warming Towards Cold And Snow (Aka The Half-Chicken Paradox)
If a rich man has two chickens, and a poor man none, both people are well-fed on average whilst one of them dies of starvation. Likewise for Global Warming.
This is a paradox strictly linked to the idea of working with temperature anomalies on a planetary scale. Imagine in fact if we had a Polar station with an anomaly of +15C, with average temperature going from -60C to -55C; and a Temperate-zone station with an anomaly of -5C, with average temperature going from +10C to +5C.
In those circumstances, the planetary temperature anomaly would go +10C, even if everybody would experience it quite cold. Worse: if the temperate areas had anomalies around zero, the planetary temperature anomaly would shoot to +15C, a giant number with no practical consequence whatsoever: because if the temperatures go up mostly where it's very very cold, nobody anywhere sees any of the fabled "warming" effects linked to temperature increases.
And in case you wonder, that's exactly what is happening, according to GISS, on planet Earth.
Martin Luther, Here I Come!
AGW catastrophism Climate Change CO2 Emissions Cooling Culture Data Dissent El Nino/La Nina GHG Global Warming History Humor IPCC Omniclimate Policy Politics Science Skepticism
The "AGW is logically impossible" list (aka Global Warming Miracles) has suddenly jumped to 52 items, doubling in size in a little less than three weeks. As commented at the Italian version of the page, I am now only 43 items away from putting a poster at the Castle Church in Wittenberg, Germany.
Or perhaps I should find out where the bulletin boards are, at the University of East Anglia…
Indications Of A Changing Arctic (Across The Centuries)
AGW Climate Change CO2 Emissions Data Global Warming History Omniclimate Science
Arctic Barrington Northwest Passage sea ice
(h/t FM)
Is there anything peculiar happening in the Arctic in our time? Unfortunately, satellite-based sea-ice measurements only start from 1979, i.e. have just barely crossed the magic 30-year line that we're told separates "weather" from "climate" (in other words, we have just been able to say that, according to mainstream climatology, the ice in 1995 was on the decrease).
A different way to look at the issue is to source information from relatively old books and newspaper articles. And there are good indications that their analysis will show quite large changes in the Arctic sea-ice extension across the centuries.
As it happens, I was sent yesterday the link to a very interesting 1818 compendium edition of mid-1770's North-Pole-related thoughts and reports by Danies Barrington FRS of "young Mozart" fame: "The Possibility of Approaching the North Pole Asserted".
Barrington goes at great length both in collecting as much evidence as possible from seamen claiming to have been further North than would have been expected; and in examining such evidence with a healthy dose of skepticism. His conclusions: several ships have been beyond 82N, and many of them have reported clear water to the North (see page 61). And yes, uncertainties were put in plain sight: finding a way to reach Asia without going around the tip of South America was considered very serious business, and even a strong advocate for Polar exploration like Barrington didn't try to hide what he might have found uncomfortable. A quarter of a millennium later, we can be fairly certain ships at Barrington's time were regularly reaching 81N.
Fast forward to 1858 and a "letter" on the New York Times by a Col. Peter Force, actually the text of a lecture at the New-York Historical Society on July 1st of that year. Col. Force appears extremely skeptical of any claim about the very existence of a Northwest Passage, going as far as to use that old saying, "if it were there we would have discovered it by now". And if you look at the details reported, the 82N of 80 years earlier was then almost an unreachable goal, as there is plenty of mentions of sea ice going as low as 69N.
Arctic sea ice was therefore extending much further to the South in 1858 than in 1775. But were the CO2 emissions in 1775 higher than in 1858? I do not think so.
Impeachment Scampeachment
Brexit e democrazia
Brexit – in pillole
Maurizio Morabito (omnologos) on Brexit e democrazia
jenny608 on Brexit e democrazia
Maurizio Morabito (omnologos) on Calvin and Hobbes explain why Climate Change alarmists are almost invariably rabid about it
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I've been having email contact with the Poor Clare Colletine Community lately, whom I spent almost twenty years growing up next to in North Wales. I initially emailed them because I visited their Convent earlier this year when I was home to see Mum in the nursing home, and the experience affected me deeply; it was very healing. It's been lovely to have the contact with them, and keep up my connection with St Clare and St Francis, and feel there are presences and people out there who are praying for Mum, for all my family really. It makes holding the hugeness of our situation easier to bear.
Today, they sent me some pictures, which was touching, and I've included them in this post as it was St Clare's Day on Saturday.
Here is the dormitory where she lived and died.
And here's a picture of Mum before her last stroke, opening presents on her 69th birthday. I haven't been able to look at photos of her for a while now, it's been a bit too much to take. So it's good to look again, and see her in all her loveliness and with her hair in plaits.


The Flower-class corvette (also referred to as the Gladiolus -class). Used during World War II. Escorts during the Battle of the Atlantic. The generic term "Flower" is derived from the Royal Navy.
Names for ships of this class. The majority served during World War II with the Royal Navy (RN) and Royal Canadian Navy. Several ships built largely in Canada were transferred from the RN to the United States Navy. Program, seeing service in both navies.
Some corvettes transferred to the USN were manned by the US Coast Guard. The vessels serving with the US Navy were known as Temptress - and Action -class patrol gunboats. Other Flower-class corvettes served with the Free French Naval Forces. The Royal New Zealand Navy.
And, immediately post-war, the South African Navy. Many surplus Flower-class vessels saw worldwide use in other navies, as well as civilian use. Item will be sent by express courier to avoid damages. Our production lead time is minimum 4 weeks.
Actual item may different a bit from the above photographs shown. We will inform you to top up only if necessary. The item "Rc Remote Control Flower Class Corvette ship boat" is in sale since Monday, January 04, 2016. This item is in the category "Toys & Hobbies\Radio Control & Control Line\Radio Control Vehicles\Boats & Watercraft". The seller is "rcworldofships" and is located in Singapore, 550401. This item can be shipped worldwide.


Having an early departure to Tokyo, I decided to stay at Hyatt Regency DFW, one of the airport properties connected to the terminal. While I didn't expect too much of the property, the Hyatt Regency DFW is exactly what you'd expect. Learn more in our extensive review.
Hyatt Regency DFW is one of several airport hotels at Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. There's also a Grand Hyatt, but as this property came with a steep premium, I opted for the Hyatt Regency DFW.
While the hotel is directly located to one of the terminals through a parking lot, there's also a complimentary shuttle to all terminals every 20 minutes. Sadly, the check-in was quite a mess as there were several stranded passengers. Thus, it took some time until I hold the keys in my hand.
I had booked a Standard Room for my stay at Hyatt Regency DFW and was assigned one with a tarmac view (well, in the distance).
The standard rooms at Hyatt Regency DFW are rather basic, but come with a refreshed design. In this case, there were two Queen Beds with a bedside table in-between, a working desk with a proper office chair, an additional rather random looking chair as well as an early generation flat-screen television.
What you can also find in the standard rooms at Hyatt Regency DFW is a wardrobe together with a pressing board. I appreciated the fact that there are also coffee and tea making facilities.
The view is decent enough with planes in the distance, but there's also a downside of the view as the room is not exactly soundproof.
As you'd expect at an American airport hotel, Hyatt Regency DFW offers rather basic bathrooms in the standard rooms. In this case, the sink is separated from the main bathroom by a door, which is a rather weird set-up.
At least, there's plenty of storage next to the sink. The "main" bathroom is on the small side and comes with a shower-tub combo as well as a toilet. The shower pressure could be a little better in my opinion.
Hyatt Regency DFW offers its guests complimentary access to a gym and a pool. The pool is located on the ground floor and, to my surprise, outdoor.
The temperature is decent enough and the pool is also okay for some relaxed swimming. There are also a couple of loungers, but due to the noise the pool area is not exactly a place to spend your free time. Sadly, the gym is not a very inviting place either.
Offering no daylight, the whole area looks rather depressing. The gym as such is well equipped with tons of cardio machines as well as strength machines and a couple of free weights. While not the most modern, the machines are in a decent condition.
As I had an early departure and went to a nearby mall (there's a shuttle for a charge) in the evening, I didn't have the chance to try the food offerings at Hyatt Regency DFW. Yet, in all other areas Hyatt Regency DFW was exactly the property I expected.
There is nothing special about this hotel, but the rooms are decent with a relatively modern flair (leaving aside the bathrooms), the pool is fine for a quick dip in the water and the gym is well equipped for your typical workout. If you are having an early departure or late arrival in DFW, you definitely won't go wrong with choosing the Hyatt Regency DFW!


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Alright, it's been far too long since I've even been on this site so I think I owe you guys at least the option for some closure.
I think it's fair to say that whilst I love where this book was going - I had an entire sequel and everything planned out - and I'd love to continue writing, the reality is that's probably not going to happen. To put it simply, life got in the way. So much has happened in my personal life and between family, friends, myself and school, I simply don't have the time to write this book.
Because of the very unlikely, but still possible, chance of me continuing this book, I won't publicly post a summarised 'rest of the series' (it would also be way too long); however, if you see this and would like to know what happens concerning a particular aspect of the book or a particular character, message me and I'll be more than happy to give you answers. Feel free to message me more than once about multiple things!
Please; however, be specific in your question(s) as each character and plot line is incredibly complex and to explain something large (unless you just wanted a very simple answer) would simply be something I don't have the time for, as much as I'd like to.


text:
IN THE DOCK: The biggest stories from court this week
By Huw Mabe @huwmabeNQ Reporter
Gabrielle Harford has been sentenced for assaulting three police officers in a village near Cirencester. Picture - Gloucestershire Constabulary
Here are the biggest court stories that have featured in the SNJ, Gazette Series or Wilts Glos Standard over the past few days.
A 53-YEAR-old Stroud man has been placed on the sex offenders register after admitting four charges of downloading indecent images of a child, possessing them and distributing them.
Simon Blake, of The Chase, Cashes Green, will be sentenced at Gloucester Crown Court on September 3.
FULL STORY: Stroud man Simon Blake, 53, admits possessing indecent images of a child
A predatory paedophile, described as "every parent's nightmare", has been jailed for 14 years following a complex investigation by Gloucestershire Constabulary's Child Sexual Exploitation team.
Mark Taylor, aged 49 and of Manor Park, Longlevens, Gloucester, met girls online, groomed them and then travelled to different parts of the country to commit sexual offences against them.
FULL STORY: 'PARENT'S NIGHTMARE': Gloucestershire man jailed for grooming young girls
A police officer was caught in a sting operation at Cheltenham Festival by colleagues after stealing money from a lost wallet that was handed in to him, a court has heard.
Matthew Rollason, 38, who served with Gloucestershire Police, was on duty when he was given the wallet with two wads of cash inside by a member of the public at the races in March 2019.
He removed one of the bundles of cash, believed to be around £100, before handing the item in to lost property at the festival.
Judge Michael Longman sentenced Rollason, who pleaded guilty to two counts of theft, to 12 months in prison suspended for two years.
FULL STORY: Ex-Gloucestershire police officer sentenced after stealing money from lost wallet
A 27-year-old woman who assaulted three police officers in a village near Cirencester has been sentenced to a six week home curfew, writes John Hawkins.
At Cheltenham Magistrates Court on July 31, Gabrielle Harford admitted three charges of assaulting emergency workers by beating them at Ampney Crucis, on August 17 last year.
FULL STORY: Woman, 27, admits assaulting three police officers near Cirencester
A driver reportedly gunned his Range Rover to speeds of around 140mph in a bid to evade police.
Jawad Ali, 19, was behind the wheel of a borrowed car and on his way back from celebrating Eid with family in Cardiff when police spotted him on the M4 on the evening of Saturday, August 1, Swindon Magistrates' Court heard.
Magistrates bailed him to appear before Swindon Crown Court for sentence on September 4.
FULL STORY: Range Rover driver hit speeds of up to 140mph in M4 chase

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Don't know how many of you tried it, but It was almost impossible to create custom picture tours for many years. This has now been completely reworked so it not only works much better on PC, but mobile and tablets too.
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Where the parties reduce their bargain to writing, a court determines the parties' intentions in accordance with the language used in the written document, having regard to the objective evidence of the factual matrix: Salah v. Timothy's Coffees of the World Inc., 2010 ONCA 673 (CanLII), 268 O.A.C. 276, at para. 16.
There is no general rule against the enforcement of oral promises, but the fact that a promise is oral suggests that its making may not have been accompanied by anything that sufficiently brought home to the parties the significance of what they were doing and, of course, the terms of an oral promise are no more certain than the parties' recollections of them.


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İnternetten

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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Update: The takju mystery is solved: it's the U.S. GSM Nexus that Google released this morning. It's pretty clear that this device will be one of the first, if not the very first, to see the Jelly Bean OTA update.
We deal with rumors and potential fakes on a daily basis, and I have to warn you right away - on a scale of unconfirmed to solid, the source of this post is leaning to the left.


text:
May 2nd
A pastel version of The Scream, by painter Edvard Munch, sold for $120 million in a New York City auction. The transaction set a new world record for an auctioned piece of art.
The Scream
Osama bin Laden is killed by a U.S. commando. Bin Laden was the founder of al-Qaeda, a militant group that claimed responsibility for a series of terrorist attacks on U.S. targets on September 11, 2001.
Cyclone Nargis makes landfall in Myanmar killing over 130,000 people and leaving millions of people homeless.
Cyclone Nargis
Tony Blair becomes British Prime Minister, ending 18 years of Conservative Party reign. Blair's Labor Party achieved a landslide victory in the general elections. Many of his early fans were bitterly disappointed when he supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Nelson Mandela claimed victory in South Africa's first democratic elections.
The Iron Curtain begins to crumble as Hungary dismantles its border fence. By gradually opening its border to Austria, Hungary facilitated the escape of hundreds of East Germans in the months before the Berlin Wall fell.
The British Royal Navy sinks the Argentinian cruiser General Belgrano. 323 lives were lost in the attack, more than half of the total number of Argentinian casualties during the Falklands War. The British Sun tabloid newspaper commented the controversial attack with one of its most notorious headlines: "Gotcha".
ARA General Belgrano
J. Edgar Hoover, head of the FBI for 48 years, died at age 77.
The British ocean liner Queen Elizabeth II departed on her maiden voyage to New York.
Tennessee Williams won the Pulitzer Prize in Drama for Cat on a Hot Tin Roof.
The jet age begins with the first scheduled flight of the De Havilland Comet 1. Precisely one year after the maiden flight from London to Johannesburg, a Comet 1 crashed due to structural problems, killing 43 people. A series of similar accidents soon led to the grounding of the entire Comet fleet.
de Havilland Comet
Arthur Miller wins Pulitzer Prize for "Death of a Salesman".
The Soviet Union announced the fall of Berlin and the Allies announced the surrender of Nazi troops in Italy and parts of Austria.
End of World War II in Europe
General Mills began shipping a new cereal called "Cheerioats" to six test markets. (The cereal was later renamed "Cheerios.").
Lou Gehrig established a new major-league baseball record when he played his 2,130th consecutive game. It would take another 57 years before Cal Ripken, Jr., broke it.
Lou Gehrig
Jack Benny's first radio show debuted on the NBC Blue Network.
The Jack Benny Program
Broadway lyricist Lorenz Hart was born in New York City.
Lorenz Hart
The Oklahoma Territory was organized.
Oklahoma Territory
Good Housekeeping magazine went on sale for the first time.
Confederate Gen. Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson was accidentally wounded by his own men at Chancellorsville, Va. He died eight days later.
Stonewall Jackson
The Hudson Bay Co. was chartered by England's King Charles II.
Artist Leonardo da Vinci died.


The fact is that both DOs and MDs are fully qualified physicians licensed to prescribe medication and perform surgery, provide maternal and child healthcare, and more.
Osteopathic physicians understand how all the body's systems are interconnected and how each one affects the others. They receive special training in the musculoskeletal system so that they better understand how that system influences the condition of all other body systems. In addition, DOs are trained to identify and correct structural problems, which can assist your body's natural tendency toward health and self-healing.
DOs help patients develop attitudes and lifestyles that don't just fight illness, but also help prevent disease. Millions of Americans prefer this concerned and compassionate care and have made DOs their physicians for life.
After completing osteopathic medical school, DOs obtain graduate medical education through internships, residencies and fellowships. DOs specialize in all areas of medicine, ranging from such primary care disciplines as family medicine, general internal medicine and pediatrics to such specialized disciplines as surgery, radiology, oncology and psychiatry.
DOs are complete physicians, fully trained and licensed to prescribe medicine and to perform surgery. Many DOs incorporate osteopathic manipulative treatment into the care they provide. With OMT, osteopathic physicians use their hands to diagnose illness and injury and encourage your body to heal itself. By combining all other appropriate medical options with OMT, DOs offer their patients the most comprehensive care available in medicine today.


text:
The 'Wah-Wah' master: Trombone Shorty to 'play' the adults in upcoming Peanuts Movie
By Parker Hall	 October 28, 2015
Nicole Kibert / Flickr
From Charlie Brown's parents to his incomprehensible teacher, the only voice audiences will hear from adult characters in the upcoming Peanuts Movie will actually not be a voice at all. In fact, the repetitive sound of their brassy "Wah-Wahs" will be played by none other than musical prodigy Trombone Shorty.
A 29-year-old trumpet and trombone player from the New Orleans, Shorty is actually just the most recent trombone player to play the small-but-important role in the Peanuts universe; In the 50 years adult characters have existed on screen, they have always been voiced by the sliding brass instrument.
Given Peanuts' jazz-heavy history — with pianist Vince Guaraldi writing and performing the vast majority of the now-iconic music for the Charlie Brown specials of the 1960s — picking another up-and-coming jazz musician to be a part of the new film is a logical choice.
Shorty, born Troy Andrews, began playing professionally as a young teenager, started touring with Lenny Kravitz at the age of 19, and then went on to play the major festival circuit with his own band, Orleans Avenue. And he's not new to on-screen productions; the trombonist was also featured prominently on HBO's New Orleans-based series Treme.
The Peanuts Movie will be the first feature film adventure for the cast of the much-beloved comic book franchise in over 35 years, and director Steve Martino wanted to keep the on-screen audio as authentic as possible.
But, because the name of the original trombone player that worked for Vince Guaraldi on the first specials has been lost to time, and the composer himself passed away in 1976, it took a little time to get the sound right.
"Trombone Shorty came in with a little arsenal," said Martino in a recent interview with Mashable. "I didn't realize there were so many different kinds of plungers or mutes. We tried many different styles and found one particular one that gave us just the right sound."
So right, in fact, that the marketing team behind the upcoming film recently released an app called "The Wah Wah Machine," which uses the new recordings of Shorty to make anything users say into a phrase of "Wah Wahs."
It's a fun little toy to keep fans excited until the film hits theaters on November 5. Just make sure you don't use it too much on your significant other, blockheads.
The best kids movies on Netflix right now
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Eternals: Everything we know about Marvel's phase 4 movie
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WandaVision review: Marvel channels Lost for wonderfully weird Disney+ series


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Even a grey, overcast day can't dull the pristine waters of Canada's exquisite lakes.


The Usuba Kama-gata is reminiscent of a small cleaver and has a sharp tip for more intricate work. The Usuba is hefty enough to chop through heavy root vegetables with a blade that can thinly slice delicate tomatoes. Ao Namiuchi means Blue wave forged and refers to the beautiful wave like patterns on the blade that are formed when Blue Steel #1 is forged with iron.
Our handmade Yoshihiro Aonamiuchi Blue Steel knives are crafted with extraordinary skill by our master artisans. Aoko Blue Steel #1 with a hardness on the Rockwell scale of 64, is intricately forged with iron to create beautiful wave like patterns. It takes a very high degree of skill to create knives of exceptional performance with such exquisite beauty. Namiuchi means wave forged, and our master artisans blend aesthetics with the highest quality materials and and craftsmanship. Our Yoshihiro Aonamiuchi Blue Steel knives are complimented with a traditional Japanese style handcrafted Yew tree wooden handle affixed with a Water Buffalo horn bolster, and a protective wooden sheath called a Saya is included, which protects the knife and adds to its appearance when not in use. One of the most sought after of knives and fast becoming a new essential companion to the popular chefs knife is the traditional Japanese vegetable knife known as the Kama Usuba. The Kama Gata Usuba is reminiscent of a small cleaver and has a blunt tip that comes in handy for such things as cutting the eye out of a potato. This knife is cherished for its ability to chop through root vegetables to thinly slicing delicate tomatoes. From prepping greens for a salad to chopping vegetables for a main dish, the simplest of tasks are elevated with a handcrafted knife that is as beautiful as it is functional.


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text:
Philip Noel Pettit (né en 1945) est un philosophe irlandais et un théoricien politique. Il est connu comme un défenseur du républicanisme en philosophie politique et pour son soutien à l'idée d'un lien étroit entre les questions de sciences cognitives, de philosophie des sciences sociales, de libre arbitre, et de philosophie politique. Il est professeur à Princeton.

La liberté comme « non-domination »

Son livre le plus connu, Républicanisme. Une théorie de la liberté et du gouvernement (1997, trad. en 2004), défend une conception de la liberté, qu'il qualifie de républicaine, en tant que « non-domination » plutôt qu'en tant que « non-interférence », conception qu'il associe à la tradition libérale, et notamment à sa conceptualisation par Bentham.

Il répond ainsi à un texte célèbre d'Isaiah Berlin sur les « deux concepts de la liberté ». La liberté comme non-domination implique qu'il ne faut pas considérer toute interférence sur mon libre-arbitre comme limitant ma liberté (une loi légitime, en ce sens, ne limite pas ma liberté) ; en revanche, contrairement à la conception de la liberté comme non-interférence, il faut prendre en compte non seulement les interférences effectives, mais aussi potentielles, c'est-à-dire la capacité qu'à autrui (ou l'État) à limiter ma liberté. En d'autres termes, selon Pettit, un maître indulgent, qui s'abstient de me fouetter mais en a le pouvoir, limite ma liberté tout autant qu'un maître cruel, qui use de ce pouvoir.

Un État républicain, en ce sens, doit tout à la fois limiter son imperium, et empêcher le dominium exercé entre individus : si le libéralisme, selon Pettit, prête une attention particulière à la limitation du pouvoir de l'État, vu comme empiétant sur les libertés individuelles, le républicanisme veut limiter le pouvoir arbitraire tant de l'État que des individus entre eux. L'action de l'État se légitime alors si elle permet d'empêcher qu'un individu exerce un pouvoir arbitraire sur un autre (cas de domination sociale).

Ce livre a eu un écho considérable. Il a été discuté, par exemple, par Henry S. Richardson, qui en accepte l'idée de base, dans Democratic Autonomy: Public Reasoning about the Ends of Policy (2002) .

Autres ouvrages

Pettit a aussi traité de pénologie (Not Just Deserts. A Republican Theory of Criminal Justice), dialoguant avec John Braithwaite et adoptant une perspective conséquentialiste .

Ouvrages
 Judging justice: an introduction to contemporary political philosophy (1980)
 Rawls: 'A Theory of Justice' and its critics (1990) avec
 The Common Mind. An essay on psychology, society and politics (1993)
 Republicanism (1997)
 Républicanisme. Une théorie de la liberté et du gouvernement, Gallimard (2004)
 Three Methods of Ethics (1997), avec Marcia Baron et
 A Theory of Freedom (2001)
 Rules, Reasons and Norms (2002)
 The Economy of Esteem: an essay on civil and political society (2004) avec
 Made with Words: Hobbes on Language, Mind, and Politics (2007)
 A Political Philosophy in Public Life: Civic Republicanism in Zapatero's Spain (2010), avec José Luis Martí
 On The People's Terms: A Republican Theory and Model of Democracy (2016)

Articles & contributions
 Democracy, Electoral and Contestatory, dans Ian Shapiro et  (dir.)Designing Democratic Institutions (N.Y.: New York University Press, 2000)

Honneurs
 Doctorat honoris causa remis par la Faculté des arts et des sciences de l'Université de Montréal, pour souligner sa contribution dans le domaine de la philosophie morale et de la philosophie politique, 2006

Références

Liens externes

 Page de Pettit à l'Université de Princeton
 Réflexions d'un républicain sur le 15M sur La Vie des Idées.

Philosophe politique
Philosophe irlandais du XXe siècle
Philosophe irlandais du XXIe siècle
Professeur à l'université de Princeton
Boursier Guggenheim
Membre correspondant de la British Academy
Républicanisme
Naissance en 1945

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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Throughout my teenage years, whenever I heard of people sending clothing, sports supplies, or money to a developing country, I got upset. There are people in the United States who suffer a great deal, yet it isn't as glamorous to help improve their lives. I thought of all the people ten minutes away from my mainly wealthy community with whom my mom worked, kids who were living on the streets. I heard stories at my job of people who couldn't sleep when it was quiet, because the only time it is silent is when somebody is about to get shot. I thought it was important to help the United States before helping other countries because the pain and poverty in the US is just as real.
My immigration views followed my logic. There are enough people in the US suffering right now, we need to help them before others come. Let's improve the lives of the people living here first. And, although my mom is on the services side of helping, I believed in putting a lot more energy into changing systems. The parents didn't matter to me as much as the kids, the future.
I believed that change was needed in a variety of different ways-better healthcare, healthier food, fewer prisons and more rehabilitation systems, but above all, I believed schools that taught analytical thinking could ultimately improve not only the US but the world.
I still believe a lot of it, yet it becomes harder as I become close to the people in my Ecuadorian community. I live and work in Paraiso de Amigos, a community in which all families work on farms owned by others. It is hard to continue having my same philosophy when Tatiana, a nine year old girl who can neither read, write, add or subtract, continues begging me to give her clothing. She has two extra shirts and pairs of pants besides the school uniforms. In my own theory, I shouldn't want my mom to bring clothing for Tatiana or others. She should be giving our extra clothing to people in the US who need it.
It is also difficult to continue the same philosophy when Valaria, an incredibly intelligent and hardworking girl tells me her dream of becoming a teacher, yet her family is too poor to afford school after high school. In reality, Valaria will work on a farm, as her parents do. Nevertheless, again, in my world, my and others donations should go to people in the US, they need higher education well. As well, should not we instead be putting energy into changing the university system, not raising money for one girl to attend university?
In terms of my views on immigration, my host family here includes people who were undocumented workers in the US. One host aunt and three host uncles worked at McDonalds, a gym, and in people's gardens respectively so their offspring could go to university, a privilege they never had.
In the school I work at, I teach English to students ranging from ages five to thirteen. I was initially upset to learn that this would be my profession. What's the point of teaching English to children who will never leave this area? I decided I would teach English to the younger kids, so they can have more opportunities when they are older. To the older kids, I have been attempting to teach analytical skills through English. When teaching the phrases "Where are you from?" and "I am from Ecuador.", I showed pictures of different countries and asked what they liked and what they wished could be different about Ecuador. I said what I thought about the United States. Nevertheless, the students were more interested in playing soccer than they were in my lesson. And I could not blame them. School is one of the only times they get to socialize, considering they all have to help their parents on Cocoa farms so there can a little more food on the table. This is not an exaggeration, kids come to school hungry.
I care a lot about my 74 students. I want them to grow up and have the opportunity to continue their studies. I hope they can think critically about their lives and the world. As I dream about what these students can become, I keep challenging myself. Why do I care so much about these kids if my thoughts on governmental policy would work against my community? Technically, I don't care about the Valaria's and Tatiana's in other developing countries, why here. It is only natural to want to help the people I am surrounded by, but it now feels hypocritical to go back to the United States and have the same political thoughts I had before.