Why is HMU Right for You?
Thanks to Alissa Simon, HMU Tutor, for today's post.
Do we need to know the origin of a story once it has been changed? Is part of the power of a subverted narrative in the actual subversiveness? Maybe it does not matter at all that we know the origin of the story, but only the results of the newest conversation. I wonder what it takes to erase, or at least drastically alter, our understanding of a stereotype of the character of someone like Cinderella, for example.
Fairy tales involving a helpless princess have received a lot of criticism of late. Rising concern about this fairy tale (among others) establishes an argument for understanding the point behind the stories that we teach to our children. Instead of allowing the princess to grow and develop, Cinderella depends entirely upon Prince Charming for salvation. We fear that young girls will receive the impression that instead of working to pursue their dreams, they simply have to wait.
As a result, in recent years, a number of versions of a non-helpless Cinderella have been published. Interstellar Cinderella by Deborah Underwood is an example of this new type of Cinderella fairy tale. It begins: "Once upon a planetoid,/ amid her tools and sprockets,/ a girl named Cinderella dreamed/ of fixing fancy rockets." This Cinderella loves her tools more than fancy dresses or waiting. She is curious, crafty and knowledgeable. Therefore, when Prince Charming's ship needs repair, she is the only one able to help. When he asks for her hand in marriage, she laughs and offers to be his chief mechanic instead.
This sort of transformation brings to mind Princess Leia (Carrie Fisher) of the Star Wars series. In the most recent movie, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, she assumes the role of General. Her new role reflects changing rhetoric of the decades between the first movie and today's character. She reflects the growing awareness of stereotypes. It is also necessary for General Leia to transcend her previous role before the audience can receive a character like Rey (Daisy Ridley) also in Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Rey is a strong, independent female character who demonstrates excellence with both tools and weapons. If we disregard all previous female characters, does this strong protagonist subvert or eliminate previous characters? If young children are watching Star Wars: The Force Awakens without knowing the history, will they wonder how Rey became so independent and strong?
Michel Foucault offers some insight into the author's function when envisioning a character, which may also enlighten the idea of the cultural reading of a character. In the essay, "What is an Author?" he writes, "One can say that the author is an ideological product, since we represent him as the opposite of his historically real function. (When a historically given function is represented in a figure that inverts it, one has an ideological production.) The author is therefore the ideological figure by which one marks the manner in which we fear the proliferation of meaning.
"In saying this, I seem to call for a form of culture in which fiction would not be limited by the figure of the author. It would be pure romanticisim, however, to imagine a culture in which the fictive would operate in an absolutely free state, in which fiction would be put at the disposal of everyone and would develop without passing through something like a necessary or constraining figure." In other words, the fiction that we receive does pass through a solitary point, that of the author. The author collects ideas, facts, data, emotions in order to inform a work of art. However, fairy tales might be the closest we can get to what Foucault calls 'pure romanticisim'. Fairy tales were originally written but have spun into oral stories, into culturally appropriated pieces, into narratives far beyond their original form.
This is how we arrive at the idea that a fairy tale may contain a dialogue outside of the single author's perspective. But not completely. Something like Cinderella was originally written from a single perspective, a single 'constraining figure' who chose details that were important to a particular time and place. The story then generated itself and the characters became universal. In other words, it has grown universality from a solitary authorial point.
Now, however, erase all that you know about Cinderella, and begin again with Interstellar Cinderella. Is the character strong and independent? Would she be stronger and more independent (in your mind) if you were aware of her true past? And finally, what if you then stumble upon the original Cinderella. Would the helpless princess subvert the über-independent mechanic?
To post a comment, click on the title of today's blog and scroll down.
Thanks to Alissa Simon, HMU Tutor, for today's blog.
War leaves such holes within us. While we are incapable of completely filling these holes, they still demand attention. Since everyone reacts differently, the work is personal and arduous. Funerals serve an important ritual in the passage of a loved one. They offer a transition, a sense of closure. Funerals are universally recognized as important. As the body fills a space in the ground, so too does ritual fill an emotional space.
People prepare elaborate ceremonies, words, deeds, and actions, all of these performed in a rhythm. For example, the sound of Taps draws upon each of us in a unique way. We know and understand something, not everything, but these experiences draw on the deepest of our emotions. Sometimes we may not even be aware of the cultural implications underlying the funeral ritual. Yet without the ceremony, there is an additional absence, an additional unaccounted-for space. An example of the elaborateness of funeral rites comes from Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. In it, he details the burial of Alaric, the first king of the Visigoths. Gibbon writes, "The ferocious character of the barbarians [Goths] was displayed in the funeral of a hero whose valour and fortune they celebrated with mournful applause. By the labour of a captive multitude they forcibly diverted the course of the Busentinus, a small river that washes the walls of Consentia. The royal sepulchre, adorned with the splendid spoils and trophies of Rome, were then restored to their natural channel; and the secret spot where the remains of Alaric had been deposited was for ever concealed by the inhuman massacre of the prisoners who had been employed to execute the work". They diverted a river. And yet, they revered the body of the leader so much that they include more death. There is so much death involved in death. Juxtaposed to this idea of an elaborate funeral is that of the unexplained missing persons.
An extremely complex version of loss arrives in the form of missing persons. No body, no word, no sign, no knowledge. Human brains ache for a narrative, for an end, for something more. Often the brain allows for hope even in the face of the most hopeless situation. The weight of this is often unbearable and excruciating. The lack of funeral is an important note. A lot of time and energy is spent on saying goodbye. If this ceremonial rite is denied, the emotional toll on remaining family and friends is great, to say the least.
This short paragraph from George Orwell's 1984 illustrates the idea of a person who, in Orwell's sci-fi world, suddenly ceased to exist. Orwell explains the disappearance thus: "Syme had vanished. A morning came, and he was missing from work; a few thoughtless people commented on his absence. On the next day nobody mentioned him. On the third day Winston went into the vestibule of the Records Department to look at the notice board. One of the notices carried a printed list of the members of the Chess Committee, of whom Syme had been one. It looked almost exactly as it had looked before – nothing had been crossed out – but it was one name shorter. It was enough. Syme had ceased to exist; he had never existed." Winston laments the missing name of his friend. This chess list barely records anything, just a trace of existence. Yet, Winston speaks of Syme, identified by proper name, by recollections of personal exchange. How is it possible to have a proper name without prior knowledge of an actual being? His disappearance horrifies Winston, who is even more upset that no one else responds with outrage. Obviously, a disappearance is not uncommon in this world, but still Winston holds a few key figures in his mind. Real people worthy of more than a mere removal. He wonders if they live somewhere, exiled. Or perhaps they have been captured and detained somewhere. Questions pile on top of each other without any relief or answer. Perhaps it is for this reason that Winston begins to keep a journal.
The idea of journalling is neither unique nor revolutionary (except in 1984, where it is both). The facts of a person who 'disappears' are really never to be understood. But what happens to the family left reeling in the aftermath of such an incomprehensible scenario? The amazing truth is that the mind has the ability (almost builds the ability) to maintain contact with someone (or something) which is not present. However, in building this reality, emotions bear a heavy toll. In a paper titled, "Stitches of War: Women's Commentaries on Conflict in Latin America", Dr. Deborah Deacon (HMU) discusses an unlikely, but effective way of dealing with some of the pain. She writes about General Pinochet in Chile: "Most of the 'disappeareds' were men and students who actively opposed the right-wing dictator, leaving wives and mothers to cope with the uncertainty of their fate. The women also had to cope with the economic and emotional uncertainty that resulted from their losses". These women began to use embroidery on burlap sacks (called arpillera) as a way of understanding and narrating their loss. This is a sharp transition from the previous use of the arpillera, which mainly depicted landscapes and animals, but rarely people.
Personally, I love these two examples of narrative, 1984 and arpilleras. To me, they clearly demonstrate certain processes of the brain required to deal with something like loss. The women of Latin America made beautiful, colorful pieces of artwork about their own personal fear, persecution and loss. It is more than art, however. It is a narrative. An experience in journalling meant to fill space, much like a body in the ground.
This arpillera is from a workshop in Guatemala started by Ramelle Gonzalez. She had to teach the Mayan women to embroider since they previously used weaving. Polyester yarn on cotton background. Photo courtesy of Dr. Deborah Deacon.
This arpillera from Guatemala depicts the destruction of a Mayan village. Its vibrant colors normally hint at life and joy. Viewed from afar, the mass of green generally pleases the eye, until we begin to discriminate green plants from green soldiers. People fall amid fire, hands raised in fear and chaos. The presence of children devastates. The lower left quadrant shows a woman, child on her back, trying to stop blood from another's head wound. To write of such brutality in vibrant colors makes me think that these women wanted to allow for life among the ruins. Yet certainly, the authors of this narrative grieve deeply.
Arpilleras are a testament to life, to hope, to beauty. They survive among ruins and, I would say, they thrive. Humans pursue narrative as a form of understanding. These texts certainly represent life, in all of its diversity and strangeness. Personally, I am amazed that the authors and/or artists were capable of such emotions post-apocalypse. And I have to believe that this is evidence of the insurmountable power of the human mind, and hopefully, of love.
To post a comment click on the title of this blog and scroll down.
We're excited that you've joined the conversation! At HMU, we want to continue the great authors' conversations in a contemporary context, and this blog will help us do that. We look back to Aristotle and the early philosophers who used reason and discourse to gain wisdom and now we endeavor to do the same every day.


Advantages of Waterproof Bathroom Panels Having a dry bathroom is the aim of every household. After showering, people do not want to always be cleaning their bathrooms to ensure that they stay dry. This has forced people to search for alternative ways of ensuring that the bathrooms stay dry. Development of waterproof bathroom shower panels has thus resulted. They are places in bathrooms to ensure that the bathrooms stay dry. Because the panels are waterproof, they allow for water to easily slide off. Water droplets that would otherwise be left on them after people shower are thus got rid of. These panels bring with them a lot of advantages. The amount of work people do in their bathrooms is reduced on by having these panels. People would have to clean their bathroom walls constantly if they had water droplets left on them. Since these panels do not allow water droplets to accumulate on them, the work of constantly cleaning the bathroom is eliminated. People will only need to wipe them once in a while. People will also not have to scrub their walls as they will not get dirty. Waterproof panels are thus preferred by most people. There are low installation costs for waterproof panels. These panels require very little materials for installation. It is possible to fix panels over tiles for those bathrooms that already have tiles. They are therefore a very cheap way of protecting bathroom walls. Before fixing, people will not have to make the wall surfaces rough as they are easy to stick. There are therefore no extra installation costs. There are also no maintenance costs to be incurred as they do not easily come off. People only need qualified contractors to help with the installation.
The panels can as well be fixed into each other easily as they are large. Bathroom walls will as well not have grouts. Water is allowed into the walls by the grouts. The panels work well in avoiding this. It is also not easy for the panels to get cracked. Mold conditions are thus avoided in the bathroom ensuring that the bathroom is clean. At times, cleaning the grouts is hectic. Because of the large size of the panels, people will know exactly how many are required to complete their bathrooms avoiding wastage as in the case of tiles.
People can easily find waterproof panels. People can easily look up online stores to find them. People from different classes can easily buy them as they are affordable. They are made of different colors to match those in different homes. There are also different designs for the panels to suit different people. These panels are recommended for all those planning to get a new look for their bathrooms.


text:
Q: How to get a clean pagination link without variable This is my Code
if($totalPage > 1){
    $customPagHTML = paginate_links(
        array(
          'base' => add_query_arg( 'cp', '%#%' ),
          'format' => '',
          'prev_text' => __('Back', '«'),
          'next_text' => __('Next', '»'),
          'total' => $totalPage,
          'current' => $page,
          'type' => ''
        )
    );
}
echo $customPagHTML;

Link showing like that:- site.com/page/?cp=2
But I want to show it like : site.com/page/cp/2 or site.com/page/2
Note: Getting result from custom db table
$query = "SELECT * FROM custom_table WHERE custom_table.id = '$id'";

A: Sure you retrieve link like site.com/page/?cp=2, because you added get parameter cp.
If you wanna link like site.com/page/cp/2 - remove base parameter and set format to ?cp=%#%
If you wanna link like site.com/page/2 - remove 'base' and 'format' parameters and stay it default. Because format - is ?page=%#% by default.

A: You don't need to do any extra work! Just remove the format and base parameter and you'll get URL in this format site.com/page/2. Btw, I've fixed your Back and Next translation.
if ( $totalPage > 1 ) {
    echo paginate_links(
        array(
            'prev_text' => __( 'Back «', 'text-domain' ),
            'next_text' => __( 'Next »', 'text-domain' ),
            'total'     => $totalPage,
            'current'   => $page,
        )
    );
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Life lessons from a four-time cancer survivor
Lauren Segal, author of Cancer – A Love Story shares how she survived four cancer diagnoses.
Lauren Segal was diagnosed with cancer four separate times, the first when she was just 23. With excellent medical care and support, she has survived. Throughout her ordeal, Lauren has found strength in reaching out to others, and this year she published a remarkable book, Cancer – A Love Story, a memoir of her survival. We chatted to Lauren about how she made it through, and what she learnt along the way.
Lauren's cancer journeyIn 1989, at 23 years old, Lauren noticed in the bath that a mole on her thigh had started bleeding. She went to the doctor who at first thought it was a blood blister but sent it off for testing. The next day, he called her and said, "I'm afraid the mole is a malignant melanoma. You need to go to a surgeon right away." Then added, "You are very lucky to have caught it."
"Luck," says Lauren. "Such a small word that was to become such an outsized motif in my life."
The mole was removed, along with a wide margin of surrounding tissue, leaving a cavity in her leg. But she was the "lucky" one, a notion driven home by the death of her much-loved cousin Kevin, from the same type of cancer.
Then in 2011, now married to her doctor husband Jonny, and the mother of Josh and Katya, she was diagnosed with a ductal carcinoma in her breast. Given her high-risk background, her surgeon recommended a preventative double mastectomy. "Nothing can prepare you for that moment," she says. "I have read how some women respond with courage or witty repartee when they hear the news. I am not that brave. I could barely speak."
She went ahead with the surgeon's recommendation, believing she had done her time with cancer. "Cancer two was a temporary hiatus and I could return to normal life. I was overjoyed," she says.
Then, three years later, a patch of what she had assumed to be scar tissue turned out to be primary lobular breast cancer. Her time with cancer was not done. She had gruelling treatment involving 18 cycles of chemotherapy, surgery and six weeks of radiation.
"As I aged, the cancer diagnosis felt more serious. My third diagnosis when I was 48 was much more serious. I felt much less prepared for a much more traumatic process of treatment."
Then, in 2015, just six weeks after Lauren finished radiation, she found a Stage 1B malignant mole on her arm. "Three cancer diagnoses is tragic. Four is a farce. It is not possible that I think of this disease as an unexpected 'gift'."
Another round of surgery left her with another indented scar. And Lauren says that now, her greatest fear is a fifth cancer diagnosis. "If four, then why not five?" she asks.
How Lauren learnt to copeDespite living through the horror of four life-threatening cancer diagnoses, Lauren is still able to see the light. She describes herself as privileged in that she had access to the best possible treatment.
Over the course of four cancer treatments, she developed many coping mechanisms. "I learnt to be kind to myself and step back and say that my job is now to heal myself. We're not so good at that in a very rushed and busy world," she says.
And she reached out to other people and shared her journey. The release of her book was part of this life-affirming process.
"I think that with four separate incidents of cancer, I occupy quite a unique position in the world. I have met people with three different diagnoses, but four might be setting some kind of world record. My accumulated experiences allowed me a perspective into the world of cancer and its treatments. I think that the scope and texture of my experience really has given me a story to tell, that can resonate with a lot of people."
She says that the book and the encounters she has had with other people as a result of writing it has given her a great deal of strength and positivity. "I have had a lot of interactions with people, which has been a very strengthening and edifying experience. It's a very nourishing thing to be doing, and I feel that I am getting back as much, if not more than I am giving out."
Lauren shares her advice with other cancer sufferersBecause she has experienced the breadth of cancer treatments, Lauren is able to offer informed advice to others faced with a cancer diagnosis. Her first recommendation to patients who have just had the devastating news that they have cancer is to take things slowly at first.
"There's usually a bit of time. You don't have to sort it out right away. So, empower yourself for whatever you think will be the best way to take the journey," she says.
Then she recommends finding a trusted medical practitioner to help you make sense of the diagnosis and treatment options. "I was fortunate in that I had the support of my husband - a medical doctor - to help me understand. He phoned for my results and broke the news to me. I am immensely grateful for that."
She says that anyone not married to a doctor should find someone in the medical profession to talk to - a GP with time on their hands or a medical friend. "The medical profession is so rushed, and there's so much stress on the system, that you need to find someone who can listen and hear and think with you. Because there are so many decisions to be made on the medical front," she says.
Then, she says, pick the emotional path through your cancer journey that's right for you. For some people, this means silence and introspection, but for her it meant reaching out to others - and that is how her book ultimately came into being.
She also believes in the comfort that can be offered by alternative treatments. She turned to a variety of therapies to help her to feel better and more positive while she was undergoing treatment. She made use of a life coach, psychologists, reflexologists, meditation coaches and yoga.
How you can support a cancer suffererFor the friends and families of cancer sufferers, Lauren has the following advice. "Never ask 'what can I do for you?' Just do it. Make something from the smallest to the largest gesture. Drop something in the post box or cook a meal. What people in this position really need are acts of kindness rather than to talk about it. 'What do you need?' is almost impossible to answer. We are so bewildered by the world, we want other people to take control and find a way to help us."
However, Lauren says that many people have helped her to find her way out of the darkness. "If I had been left on my own, in my own head and to my own devices, the darkness would have been worse."
How cancer changed LaurenA person cannot go through the experiences that Lauren has had without being changed. She says she has learnt about the importance of kindness. "It's the small things that make the hugest difference. In the medical profession, people can be surprisingly inured to being kind, so when people were kind, it changed an experience that would have otherwise been quite traumatic."
Her experiences have left her with a powerful urge to give back to others who find themselves with a similar diagnosis. "I have started to work closely with the Breast Health Foundation to promote awareness around the importance of early detection of breast cancer among South African women."
While the experiences that Lauren has been through are difficult and overwhelming, she has emerged with compassion for others and a deeper understanding of herself.
"Throughout my arduous journey into the world of cancer, I have discovered that proximity to death brings with it a proximity to life. I have learnt that luck and unluck, happiness and distress, hope and despair are tightly coiled into a life well lived," she writes in her book.
Cancer - A Love Story is available from Loot.co.za and some Exclusive Books.
How to beat high blood pressure
High blood pressure is known as the silent killer because you will experience almost no symptoms. That's why it's important to check your blood pressure regularly.
How to flu-proof the family before winter
The 2017 flu season was particularly deadly in the northern hemisphere – and winter is coming in South Africa. Here's how to protect your family from the flu virus.
The real reason you can't lose that weight
For some people, no matter what they eat or how much they exercise, those extra kilograms aren't going anywhere. It could be that something other than diet and lifestyle is at play. Find out more.
Health fads you should ignore in 2018
Do you follow all the latest celebrity health trends? To find out if they make an ounce of difference to your actual health, read on.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Under Section 107 of the Internal Revenue Code, clergy can exclude a portion of their income from income tax if it is spend on housing expense, provided the church has designated a portion of the income as "Housing Allowance" in advance of it being paid to the clergy person. In the Great Plains Conference of the United Methodist Church, pastors with the designation "District Superintendent Assignment" are not eligible for this tax benefit. If you have questions about the tax status of your pastor, contact your district superintendent office.
Housing Allowance Q&A - Sample forms may be found on page 12 of this document.
Clergy, active or retired, can use the Housing Allowance Exclusion Worksheet to determine how much they can legitimately tax shelter as a housing allowance each year on their taxes.
Read the resolution passed at the 2017 annual conference session that states retired clergy's pension during the year 2018 is designated as a housing allowance. This is for filing for the 2018 year.


212128 An outstanding Crystal Regulator. French origin.
This is a beautiful French Crystal Regulator made circa 1900. The case is framed in brass. These surfaces have been highly polished and protected with a lacquer finish. The case sits up on four pad feet. The base and cornice are stepped into the center section which is long. Here four fluted columns that terminate in capitals, the upper are a Corinthian form. These columns are fitted with very colorful porcelain panels. The panels are decorated with pastoral scenes. The panel on the right shows a classical view of a fountian. The left side paneldpicts the corner of a building. The front panel features a courtship of a framer anda woman. They are classically dressed. All three of these panels are signed "J. Carre'." The front door or bezel is a circular shape and provides access to the dial. This bezel is fitted with glass. The time track is painted with Arabic hour numerals. The back door is full length and allows one access to the pendulum and the French made movement. The movement is brass and very good quality. It is designed to run eight full days and strike each hour on a bell mounted to the back of the movement. This clock will also strike once at the half hour.
This case measures approximately 11.5 inches tall, 7 inches wide and 5.5 inches deep.


Tra Holder likes to watch the Houston Rockets because of James Harden. Last season, however, his father told the Arizona State senior guard to pay attention to one of Harden's teammates instead.
ASU coach Bobby Hurley of watches late in the game against Syracuse during their First Four game in the 2018 NCAA Tournament on March 14, 2018 in Dayton, Ohio.
Beverley, a 6-1 guard, is a defensive menace, a 2016-17 All-NBA defender. He irritates. He smothers. He gets into people. Holder started paying attention. Then he watched Avery Bradley, another All-NBA defender.
ASU has offensive firepower. The Sun Devils just hung 90 on defensive-minded San Diego State, the most the Aztecs have allowed in a regulation game in 12 years. But as the Sun Devils move deeper into the non-conference season and into Pac-12 play, it's a good bet defense will determine this season's success.
They're off to a good start.
Last year, ASU ranked among the country's worst teams in 2-point defensive field-goal percentage, letting opponents shoot 55.9 percent. Through two games this season, the Sun Devils' 2-point defensive field-goal percentage is at 42.5 percent, nearly seven percentage points below the Div. I average.
Much improvement stems from ASU's boosted front court. Forwards De'Quan Lake (who stands 6-foot-10) and Romello White (6-8) give the Sun Devils a post presence. Although he has yet to master the skill, Lake has rim-protection potential, while White has an intimidation factor to him.
Even so, strong defense usually starts with ball pressure. ASU has a pest in freshman Remy Martin, who has the potential to be an all-conference defender. Holder also wants to make a leap.
He is an introspective sort. He knows defense has been a weakness, so he made it an offseason priority. In addition to watching film, he worked on his body. In August, several ASU players went on different diets to try and get in better shape. Some went vegetarian.
For nearly a month Holder went pescetarian, eating only fish or seafood. He made salmon with his girlfriend, ate shrimp when possible. No chicken, no red meat. As a result, he slimmed down to 173 pounds. Last season, he played at 180.
It's probably not a coincidence that Holder is off to his best start. Entering Friday's home contest against Northern Arizona, he averages 21 points, 8.5 rebounds and 7 assists per game. In 70 minutes, he's committed only four turnovers.
Contact Doug Haller at 602-444-4949 or at doug.haller@arizonarepublic.com. Contact him at Twitter.com/DougHaller.
Update: The Sun Devils (2-0) on Tuesday thumped San Diego State 90-68. G Tra Holder (21 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 7.0 apg) leads five players in double figures. G Shannon Evans (19.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.5 apg) and F Romello White (16 ppg, 15 rpg) also are off to strong starts. C De'Quon Lake (19.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg) is 15 of 17 from the field. … NAU (0-2) has lost to Arizona and Embry-Riddle. The Lumberjacks score score 91.4 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 338th nationally. G Chris Bowling averages 13.5 points.


text:
Slowing productivity 'leaving the world vulnerable to slump'
Chia Yan Min
Flagging productivity is one of the main culprits accounting for low growth and persistently high unemployment in economies around the world, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said yesterday.
In its annual Global Competitiveness Report, the WEF said this "new normal" is damaging resilience and leaving the world vulnerable to another protracted economic slump.
Global growth is expected to come in at 3.3 per cent this year - its lowest rate since 2009 and one of the slowest since 2000, it noted. Unemployment, especially among youth, also remains elevated.
Long-term growth is expected to remain below the levels recorded in previous decades in most developed economies and in many emerging markets.
This situation is often referred to as the new normal.
Many possible explanations for this have been put forward, such as the ageing population in most advanced economies and some emerging countries, as well as declining capital investment.
But slowing productivity growth is undoubtedly part of the story, the WEF said.
In the last decade, productivity in most regions has grown more slowly than in the decade before.
This could be because technological inventions of the last decade, such as social networks and the sharing economy, have a more limited effect on productivity than the Internet revolution of the previous decade, and also create value not captured in national accounts - so do not show up in productivity data.
Other possible factors include barriers to knowledge diffusion that prevent smaller companies from assimilating knowledge from larger firms, and the slowdown in the growth of global trade.
In emerging markets and developing countries in particular, there is scope for raising productivity through structural reforms, the WEF said.
Singapore has also been struggling with raising labour productivity.
The Republic embarked on a restructuring drive in 2010, encouraging companies to use better technology while also weaning them off cheap sources of labour.
Despite these efforts, however, labour productivity growth remains stuck in reverse, with the overall figure in the first half of this year in negative territory.
This article was first published on Sept 30, 2015.


text:
EHR Problems Mirrored in Other Societal Issues
Daniel Essin, MA, MD
Believe it or not, EHRs and Los Angeles County's mental health problem have a lot in common.
It's bedlam in 'Los Angeles' Twin Towers Correctional Facility. Inmates in suicide-proof gowns scream and bang on their cell doors. Late last year, Bloomberg reported that Los Angeles County is looking for a new approach to dealing with the mentally ill and homeless, many of whom would have received care in mental health facilities had they not fallen victim to the Reagan era initiative that "returned" these individuals to the community, relying on medication to control them.
L.A. County's immediate problem is not new. It is a delayed consequence of wheels that were set in motion many years ago; coincidentally, the very time that the precursors of today's EHRs were under development. Looking back, one can see evidence of the same kind of flawed reasoning behind both initiatives. Some of it was detailed by The New York Times in 1984:
"One of the most influential groups in bringing about the new national policy was the Joint Commission on Mental Illness and Health, an independent body set up by Congress in 1955," according to the report.
The most influential groups in pushing EHR certification and widespread use were acting at the request of Congress such as Health Level Seven International, the American National Standards Institute, and The Health Information Technology Policy Committee created by the Office of the National Coordinator for Health IT.
"Extravagant claims were made for the benefits of shifting from state hospitals to community clinics ... The professional community made mistakes and was overly optimistic, but the political community wanted to save money," according to the Times. It is de rigueur for those who would like to build, buy, or mandate EHR systems to make extravagant claims regarding the ostensible benefits, cost savings, etc.
From the Times: "Tranquilizers became the panacea for the mentally ill... state programs were buying them by the carload, sending the drugged patients back to the community... but no one wanted to think it through." EHR has been touted as the panacea for what ails healthcare. "A team of RAND Corporation researchers projected in 2005 that rapid adoption of health information technology (IT) could save the United States more than $81 billion annually," according to a 2013 article in Health Affairs.
From the Times: "Dr. Brown, then an executive of the National Institute of Mental Health ... stated candidly ... Yes, the doctors were overpromising ... we did allow ourselves to be somewhat misrepresented."
Apparently EHR was overpromised as well: "Seven years later, the empirical data on the technology's impact on healthcare efficiency and safety are mixed, and annual healthcare expenditures in the United States have grown by $800 billion. In our view, the disappointing performance of health IT to date can be largely attributed to several factors," according to the Health Affairs report.
"They [mental health programs] ended up with everything but the kitchen sink without the issue of long-term funding being settled," says the Times. EHR certification requires that an EHR contain everything but the kitchen sink.
From the Times: "We knew that there were not enough resources ... to do the whole job ... [but] It happened [became apparent] much faster than we foresaw." Based on publicized reports about large-scale EHR implementations, actual costs often exceed initial projections by 200 percent to 500 percent. Medical Economics suggests that the average EHR implementation for a five-doctor practice averages $225,000 and totally consumes the time of one physician to two physicians and two to three other staff for the duration of the implementation. It further suggests that ongoing average annual expenses will be approximately $85,000.
"In retrospect it does seem clear that questions were not asked that might have been asked. In the thousands of pages of testimony before Congressional committees in the late 1950s and early 1960s, little doubt was expressed about the wisdom of deinstitutionalization," according to the Times.
For EHR, it likewise seems clear that questions were not asked that might have been asked and that little doubt was expressed about the wisdom of mandating the use of such antiquated products.
The solution for the mentally ill is becoming clear to L.A. County: Open its own mental health facilities or make it financially attractive for the private sector to do so. The solution for EHR is equally clear: Eliminate certification, link any mandates to performance, not to the purchase or use of products, scrap the existing penalties and fairly compensate practitioners for their time so they won't feel under pressure to skimp on documentation and rush through visits.


text:
UK Launches £100B Green Revolution
Craig Rubens Jun 27, 2008 - 8:56 AM CDT
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown did not shy away from transformative language when he said yesterday that "business as usual" would not achieve the "green revolution" the UK must undertake. The EU has set a target for 15 percent of the country's energy to be generated from renewable sources by 2020. Brown said the endeavor will require £100 billion ($199 billion) in private investment, which would be facilitated by new government incentives.
"This is a green revolution in the making," Brown said, as the Guardian reports. "It will be a tenfold increase on our current deployment of renewables, and a 300 percent increase on our existing plans: the most dramatic change in our energy policy since the advent of nuclear power."
The plan would include thousands of wind turbines, a sweeping set of efficiency standards and lifestyle changes for the average British citizen. Brown estimates the revolution would create some 160,000 green jobs and much of the cost would be put right back into the domestic economy, spurring cleantech growth all over the British Isles.
But the longer we wait, the more expensive it will get. Lord Stern of Brentford, who issued a report in 2006 saying it would take 1 percent of the global GDP to take on global warming, doubled his estimate to 2 percent. Speaking yesterday at the launch of the Carbon Rating Agency, Stern said: "All this depends on good policy and well functioning [carbon] markets."
Critics say Brown's words are just that – words. He'll need to move quickly to shift the nation's approach to renewable energy to catch up with the rest of Western Europe. Details of how the government would support the nine-digit private investment will come from the British business secretary, John Hutton. And a more robust carbon market, which Stern calls essential, was not mentioned.
We've heard strong language from world leaders before. President Bush, who said in his 2006 State of the Union Address that the United States is "addicted to oil," has come under heavy attack recently in light of his call to lift the ban on offshore drilling, a "solution" critics are calling "get more addicted to oil."
4 Responses to "UK Launches £100B Green Revolution"
Deep Patel June 27, 2008
I am on the front line of solar and wind, a renewable energy professional and we are far from full steam ahead. Spain is full steam ahead with solar and wind. I agree Oregon is progressive, but that is just one state out of the many that have no renewable energy polices and don't have any support for solar and wind.
gs June 27, 2008
Actually the US is moving full steam ahead with Wind and Solar..
Oregon has a bounty crop of electrons this spring…
http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1214537148233820.xml&coll=7
deepcsuf June 27, 2008
Yes, at least the Europe is talking about renewable energy. Here in America all I hear about is Clean Coal and Nuclear Energy, for some reason the US Fed. Govt. dislikes the idea of people learning how to generate their own power. Decentralized power makes the most sense, because of efficency, in our current centralized power economy, most of the electricity we generate at the source is lost in transmission. I saw bring the power to the people!


text:
La bataille de Deir ez-Zor a lieu lors de la guerre civile syrienne. De 2012 à 2014, elle oppose le régime syrien et les rebelles pour le contrôle de la ville de Deir ez-Zor. Le , les djihadistes de l'État islamique supplantent les forces d'opposition et les chassent totalement du gouvernorat de Deir ez-Zor, prenant au cours d'une offensive le contrôle de la moitié de la ville et de la totalité de la province. Seule la partie ouest de la ville, ainsi que l'aéroport situé au sud-est, demeurent aux mains du régime syrien. L'État islamique poursuit alors les combats pour tenter de prendre les quartiers encore aux mains des loyalistes. D'importantes offensives sont menées par les djihadistes, principalement en décembre 2014, en janvier 2016 et en janvier 2017. Elles leur permettent de gagner du terrain et d'isoler l'aéroport le , mais pas d'emporter la totalité de la ville. Finalement une offensive de l'armée syrienne et de ses alliés permet au régime de briser le siège de Deir ez-Zor le , puis de reprendre entièrement la ville le .

Prélude
En 2011, lors du printemps arabe, les premières manifestations pacifiques de l'opposition au régime de Bachar el-Assad ont lieu les 18 et 25 mars. D'autres suivent les 15 et 22 avril ; puis en mai, elles deviennent hebdomadaires. Le 6 mai, quatre manifestants sont abattus par la police ; il s'agit alors des premiers décès de la révolution syrienne à Deir ez-Zor.

Le 15 juillet,  défilent à Deir ez-Zor selon l'Observatoire syrien des droits de l'homme (OSDH). Le 22 juillet,  manifestent dans la ville selon l'OSDH. L'armée syrienne intervient alors du 28 au 31 juillet avec des chars : elle investit le quartier d'Hawiqat et tue six personnes. Selon Al Jazeera, 137 soldats font défection. Malgré la répression, une nouvelle manifestation de  a lieu à Deir ez-Zor le 5 août. Le 17 août, l'armée se retire de la ville. Selon une source de l'opposition, au moins 89 civils ont été tués à Deir ez-Zor au cours de l'intervention de l'armée. Le 15 octobre, Ziad al-Obeidi, figure de l'opposition et organisateur de manifestations, est assassiné.

Déroulement

Combats entre rebelles et loyalistes, de 2012 à 2014

Les manifestations se poursuivent en 2012 : dans la nuit du 11 au 12 juin, au moins 13 civils sont notamment tués par des tirs d'obus dans le quartier de Jbeileh. Le 13 juin, l'armée syrienne lance une vaste offensive et entre dans Deir ez-Zor.

L'opposition commence à se militariser à partir de l'été 2011 ; de nombreuses factions sont formées à Deir ez-Zor. Le , le Conseil militaire suprême de l'Armée syrienne libre est fondé, il est représenté sur le front est par Mohammad Abboud, ancien colonel de l'armée syrienne, et regroupe principalement dans cette région la  division d'infanterie, la  division d'infanterie, la  division de commandos, la  division, la  division, le Liwa Jund al-Rahman, le Liwa Chouhada Deïr ez-Zor, la Brigade Ahfad al-Rassoul, le Liwa al-Khadra, le Liwa al-Abbas, le Liwa al-Qadisiya, le Liwa al-Muhajirin ila Allah. Cependant le Conseil militaire manque de soutien extérieur et ne parvient pas à subvenir aux besoins des groupes rebelles ; son influence s'étiole progressivement.

Des coalitions islamistes se forment alors : avec en juin 2013, le Harakat Abna al-Islam, qui regroupe Jaych al-Tawhid, les Kataeb al-Ansar et les Kataeb al-Saïqa ; en octobre 2013, Jaych Ahl as-Sunna wal-Jamaat, qui regroupe des factions rattachées au Front de l'authenticité et du développement, le Liwa al-Athar, le Liwa Usud as-Sunna et le Liwa Ahl al-Raya ; et le 19 novembre 2013, le Jabhat al-Jihad wal-Bina al-Islamiyya (Front islamique du Jihad et de la Construction), qui regroupe le  Liwa Jafar al-Tayyar, le Liwa la Ilaha illa Allah, le Liwa al-Hawaz, le Liwa Ibn Qiam, le Liwa al-Risalla, le Liwa al-Tawhid al-Islami, le Liwa Othman bin Afan, le Liwa Ahfad Mohammad, le Liwa Sarayat al-Rasoul, le Liwa Sadiq al-Amin et Tajamm'u al-Rachidin.

Enfin, des groupes salafistes, comme Ahrar al-Cham et le Liwa al-Fatihoun min Ard ach-Cham, et salafiste djihadistes, comme le Front al-Nosra et l'État islamique en Irak et au Levant, apparaissent.

Ailleurs dans le gouvernorat, les rebelles prennent le poste-frontière de Boukamal le 19 juillet 2012, puis ils attaquent la ville le 22 août et s'en emparent le 14 novembre. Puis, pour la première fois, les rebelles s'emparent le 4 novembre d'un champ pétrolier, celui d'al-Ward. Le 22 novembre, la ville de Mayadine est conquise à son tour. Le 25 novembre, les rebelles entourent l'aéroport de Deir ez-Zor. Le 30 novembre, l'armée abandonne aux rebelles le champ pétrolier d'al-Omar — ou al-Amr — le plus grand de Syrie, situé au sud-est de Deir ez-Zor. À la fin du mois de novembre, le gouvernorat de Deir ez-Zor est presque entièrement aux mains des rebelles ; la ville de Deir ez-Zor est toujours tenue par les loyalistes mais elle est isolée et encerclée.

Le 2 mai 2013, le pont suspendu de Deir ez-Zor est détruit.

À l'été et à l'automne 2013, les rebelles lancent des offensives qui leur permettent de s'emparer de plusieurs quartiers de Deir ez-Zor. Le général Jam'a Jam'a, le chef des renseignements militaires de la ville, est tué le 17 octobre. Les forces du régime tiennent essentiellement les quartiers de Joura et Qussour, à l'ouest.

Le 29 janvier 2014, les rebelles prennent le pont de Siyasiya, qui est alors le seul de Deir ez-Zor encore debout.

Offensive de l'État islamique et défaite des rebelles, de janvier à juillet 2014

En janvier 2014, un conflit général éclate dans l'ensemble de la Syrie entre les rebelles et l'État islamique en Irak et au Levant (EIIL). Dans le gouvernorat de Deir ez-Zor, les rebelles prennent d'abord l'avantage et parviennent à chasser l'EIIL en février. Mais le 30 avril, l'organisation djihadiste lance une large contre-offensive dans la région de Deir ez-Zor. Les affrontements pour le contrôle du gouvernorat durent plus de deux mois et font des centaines de morts de chaque côté, mais l'État islamique prend l'avantage : le 25 juin, la ville de Boukamal passe sous son contrôle après le ralliement du chef local d'al-Nosra ; le 3 juillet, les troupes du « califat » prennent Mayadine et le champ pétrolier d'al-Amr. Finalement le 14 juillet, le Front al-Nosra et Ahrar al-Cham abandonnent leurs positions dans la ville de Deir ez-Zor ; certains de leurs combattants rejoignent les rangs de l'État islamique, les autres se retirent de la région. Le gouvernorat de Deir ez-Zor est alors contrôlé de 95 à 98 % par l'État islamique ; seule la partie ouest de la ville de Deir ez-Zor reste tenue par les loyalistes.

Début août cependant, la tribu des Al-Cheitaat se révolte contre les nouveaux maîtres de la région ; les djihadistes répliquent brutalement en massacrant près d'un millier de personnes en deux semaines, dont une grande majorité de civils.

Escarmouches de juillet à novembre 2014
Le 18 juillet, les forces loyalistes et l'État islamique s'affrontent près de l'aéroport de Deir ez-Zor. L'armée syrienne riposte par plusieurs bombardements.

L'État islamique attaque ensuite l'aéroport les 2, 3 et 8 septembre, tout en menant des incursions au sud-est de la ville les 3 et 6 septembre. Ces attaques sont repoussées par les loyalistes qui regagnent même du terrain  le 6 septembre dans les quartiers sud-est. Le 5 septembre, le général Issam Zahreddine reçoit 600 gardes républicains de la  parachutiste en renfort. Ces derniers viennent renforcer la  brigade de l'armée syrienne, déjà éprouvée par les combats.

Le 15 septembre, le pont de Siyasiya est détruit par les loyalistes.

Le 13 octobre, les loyalistes lancent une offensive et s'emparent le 27 de la vaste île de Hawijet Sakr, au sud-est de la ville. Selon l'Observatoire syrien des droits de l'homme (OSDH), au moins 25 djihadistes et 20 loyalistes sont tués le 14 et le 17 octobre. Le 23 novembre dans la même zone, au moins deux soldats syriens sont tués et leur cadavres décapités ; un chef de l'EI est également blessé. Le lendemain, 22 djihadistes sont tués à Deir ez-Zor, dont 13 par des frappes aériennes sur l'île de Hawijet Sakr.

Le 23 novembre, un avion syrien est abattu par les djihadistes près de la ville.

Offensive de l'État islamique en décembre 2014
Le  décembre 2014, l'État islamique lance une offensive dont le but principal est de prendre l'aéroport de Deir ez-Zor. Celui-ci est stratégique car il s'agit de la seule base aérienne du régime pour les avions et les hélicoptères dans l'est de la Syrie, c'est également la seule voie de ravitaillement alimentaire pour les troupes loyalistes presque encerclées à Deir ez-Zor. L'EI attaque les villages d'al-Mariyah et al-Jafra situés à l'est de la ville, près de la base aérienne, ainsi que l'île de Hawijet Sakr.

La nuit du 3 au 4 décembre, une attaque-suicide au véhicule piégé à al-Masemekeh, des tirs d'artillerie sur le village d'al-Jafra et des combats à Hwayjet al-Mariyah provoquent la mort d'au moins 19 soldats et miliciens loyalistes, ainsi que sept djihadistes selon l'OSDH. Les hommes de l'EI s'emparent de deux chars, d'un véhicule blindé, de pièces d'artillerie et d'armes automatiques.

Le 4, malgré dix frappes de l'aviation syrienne, les djihadistes progressent à Hawijet Sakr et s'emparent des villages d'al-Jafra et al-Mariyah ; 24 soldats syriens sont capturés puis décapités.

Le 5, les djihadistes attaquent la montagne de Deir ez-Zor, au sud de la ville, où les loyalistes disposent d'un radar et d'une batterie d'artillerie. Les assaillants progressent et s'emparent de quelques pièces. Au matin du 6 décembre, au moins 16 soldats et 9 djihadistes ont été tués selon l'OSDH.

Pour l'OSDH, le bilan des combats des 3, 4 et 5 décembre est d'au moins 60 à 70 djihadistes — dont 33 Syriens, 2 Français et 1 Tunisien — et 51 militaires et miliciens loyalistes tués.

La nuit du 5 au 6, l'EI attaque l'aéroport depuis le village d'al-Jafra. Après des tirs d'artillerie et l'envoi d'un véhicule piégé kamikaze, les djihadistes lancent l'assaut et s'emparent de la base d'un bataillon de missiles de l'armée, située sur une colline au sud-est de l'aéroport. Mais selon l'OSDH, la progression des djihadistes vers l'aéroport est ensuite stoppée par d'intenses bombardements et l'utilisation par les loyalistes de gaz de chlore. Les hommes de l'EI reculent également dans les montagnes. Le 6, les loyalistes reprennent pied à al-Mariyah.

Le 7 décembre, malgré l'arrivée de renforts les djihadistes sont repoussés : ils abandonnent le terrain gagné dans la montagne et l'aéroport, ainsi que la base du bataillon de missiles. Selon l'OSDH, les combats ont alors fait plus de 100 morts chez les djihadistes et 59 pour les loyalistes depuis le début de l'offensive.

Le 8 décembre, les combats se poursuivent autour de l'aéroport. L'aviation syrienne mène au moins 11 raids à Deir ez-Zor et ses environs et un kamikaze de l'EI se fait sauter avec un véhicule piégé. Selon l'OSDH, le bilan de la journée est d'au moins huit morts pour l'armée syrienne et 11 tués du côté de l'EI.

Le 10 décembre, l'aviation syrienne mène dix raids dans les environs de Deir ez-Zor. Le même jour, les djihadistes envoient un char T-55 bourré  d'explosifs sur l'aéroport afin de faire une brèche dans les lignes loyalistes, mais l'attaque échoue. Dans la nuit du 11 au 12, un kamikaze se fait exploser près de l'aéroport ; l'aviation syrienne continue également ses frappes et les combats se poursuivent près de l'aéroport et de la zone de  Hweja Saker où les djihadistes lancent un nouvel assaut dans lequel ils perdent au moins douze hommes. Les 12 et 13, de nouveaux assauts de l'EI sont repoussés. Le 17, les loyalistes progressent vers le village d'al-Jafra. Puis le 18, ils reprennent Al-Mariyah et la base des missiles.

Le soir du 20 décembre 2014, l'EI lance un nouvel assaut sur l'aéroport, il est cependant repoussé et selon l'OSDH au moins 20 djihadistes et deux soldats loyalistes sont tués. Les djihadistes progressent à nouveau sur quelques points le 24.

Phase d'affrontements ponctuels en 2015
Après l'échec de l'offensive de l'EI en décembre, la bataille de Deir ez-Zor connaît une nouvelle phase d'escarmouches et d'affrontements ponctuels.

Du 2 au 4 janvier 2015, les loyalistes repoussent une attaque contre la base de la . Le 4 janvier, le village d'Ayash est attaqué et pris en partie par l'EI, d'autres assauts les 14, 16 et 17 février sont en revanche repoussés et l'armée reprend une partie de la localité le 16 mars.

Le 26 janvier 2015, au moins 20 hommes de l'État islamique et un nombre inconnu de soldats loyalistes sont tués selon l'OSDH dans un combat près de l'aéroport. Les loyalistes progressent dans la zone d'al-Mazare.

Le 27 février, l'armée syrienne reprend complètement Al-Mariyah puis prend le champ pétrolier d'Al-Thayyam le 12 mars, au sud, suivi de l'usine électrique et la base du champ pétrolier le 29 mars. Le 23 mars, la télévision nationale affirme que 19 hommes de l'EI ont été tués par l'armée dans la province. Le 30 mars, au moins 23 hommes de l'EI sont tués dans les montagnes d'al-Tharda. Puis, le 20 avril, les loyalistes font une nouvelle poussée à Hawijet Sakr dont ils contrôlent la plus grande partie.

Le 22 avril, au sud de Deir ez-Zer, l'EI s'empare d'une douzaine d'habitations dans la ville de Mayadine, dont plusieurs appartenant à des officiers syriens ou des membres du parti Baas. Le 29, dans cette même ville, une explosion dans une usine d'explosifs fait au moins 25 tués et 20 blessés parmi les hommes de l'EI.

En avril, le général Zahreddine et les gardes républicains sont rappelés à Damas à la suite de revers pour l'armée syrienne dans le nord du pays.

Le 4 mai, l'État islamique lance une nouvelle offensive. Le 5, les djihadistes effectuent plusieurs incursions à l'est de la ville, dans les quartiers d'al-Sinaa, al-Rasafa et al-Ommal et sur l'aéroport. Au moins quatre loyalistes sont tués et décapités par l'EI, dont le général Maala, chef de la défense aérienne de l'aéroport de Deir ez-Zor ; 15 djihadistes sont également tués dans les combats, ainsi qu'un enfant. Le 8, des assauts sont lancés al-Mariyah, à Hawijet Sakr, et au nord de la ville. Le 12, les loyalistes se retirent de l'île de Hawijet Sakr et les djihadistes s'emparent du nord d'al-Jafra. Les assauts sur l'aéroport les 12 et 14 mai sont en revanche repoussés. En dix jours, les combats ont fait au moins 34 morts chez les loyalistes et plus de 28 du côté des djihadistes selon l'OSDH.

Le 14 mai, le régime renvoie le général Zahreddine et la  républicaine à Deir ez-Zor. Mais ces forces sont ensuite redéployées à Hassaké fin juin.

Le 9 septembre 2015, l'EI s'empare d'un poste militaire à environ un kilomètre de l'aéroport. Selon l'OSDH, 18 soldats du régime sont tués, les djihadistes comptabilisent 36 morts, dont deux kamikazes, et plus de 50 blessés.

Le 28 septembre 2015, les raids aérien du régime syrien reprennent et font 23 morts et 50 blessés dans la province de Deir ez-Zor, notamment à Mayadine où un marché a été bombardé, tuant femmes et enfants.

Le 26 octobre 2015, le major-général Izzadin Ibrahim meurt dans un accident de voiture à Deir ez-Zor.

Le 6 décembre, selon l'OSDH, une position de l'armée syrienne est touchée pour la première fois par des bombes de la coalition, les frappes ont lieu à deux kilomètres du village d'Ayache, à l'ouest de Deir ez-Zor ; quatre soldats sont tués et 13 blessés. Le régime syrien confirme la frappe et condamne . Mais le colonel Steve Warren, porte-parole de la coalition, conteste ces déclarations et affirme qu'aucune frappe n'a été menée ce jour-là à moins de  de Deir ez-Zor.

Le matin du 23 décembre, l'EI envoie trois véhicules-suicide sur des positions du régime à l'est : au moins 11 soldats et miliciens loyalistes sont tués et 20 sont blessés selon l'OSDH. Les djihadistes lancent ensuite l'assaut et s'emparent d'un quartier industriel ; au total 26 soldats et miliciens loyalistes sont tués ainsi que 12 hommes de l'EI.

Offensive de l'État islamique en janvier 2016

Le 16 janvier 2016, une grande offensive est lancée par l'État islamique au nord et à l'ouest de Deir ez-Zor. Le premier jour, les combats font au moins 50 à 75 morts parmi les forces loyalistes et 42 tués du côté des djihadistes, dont 12 kamikazes. Au moins 85 civils issus des familles des combattants loyalistes sont également tués selon l'OSDH et 400 autres sont enlevés. L'agence de presse du régime syrien, Sana, parle de son côté de 280 civils massacrés par les djihadistes. L'EI s'empare du quartier d'Al-Baghaliyeh, au nord-ouest, et selon l'OSDH, les djihadistes contrôlent désormais 60 % de la ville. Les bilans de l'OSDH et de l'agence Sana sont cependant contestés par des militants du réseau d'informations DeirEzzor24, anti-Bachar el-Assad et anti-EI, qui affirment que seulement 12 civils ont été tués par un bombardement du régime syrien, que la plupart des victimes sont des militaires et des soldats loyalistes et qu'aucune preuve ne permet d'établir que des civils ont été massacrés ou enlevés. Selon l'OSDH cependant, 270 des 400 otages — principalement les femmes, les enfants et les vieillards — sont relâchés le 19 janvier après avoir été interrogés.

L'EI attaque également le quartier de Ayach, la base de la brigade 137 et l'Hôtel Fourat Al-Cham, au nord-ouest et à l'ouest de Deir ez-Zor. Le soir du 17 janvier, les djihadistes s'emparent du dépôt d'armes de la base 137, au nord-ouest de la ville, ce qui ne représente cependant pas une grande prise, celui-ci ayant déjà été pillé en décembre 2013. Le 18 janvier, les djihadistes profitent d'une tempête de sable — qui empêche l'aviation du régime d'intervenir — pour poursuivre leur avancée. Au soir du 18 janvier, le bilan de l'offensive est selon l'OSDH d'au moins 120 morts du côté des loyalistes et 70 tués du côté des djihadistes, dont 28 kamikazes. Puis le 21 janvier, le bilan de l'OSDH passe à 200 morts au moins pour les loyalistes, dont 48 prisonniers exécutés, de 110 tués au moins du côté de l'EI, dont 30 kamikazes, et de 42 civils tués par les frappes aériennes loyalistes et russes, dont neuf enfants et quatre femmes.

Les 22 et 23 janvier, des bombardements russes dans les villages de Khsham et al-Tabyi Jazeera font 99 morts parmi les civils selon le Réseau syrien des droits de l'homme (SNHR).

À cette période,  civils sont encerclés à Deir ez-Zor, les habitants souffrent d'une pénurie alimentaire, ils sont difficilement approvisionnés en eau et l'électricité est coupée depuis un an. Seuls les soldats du régime sont régulièrement approvisionnés en vivres par avions, aux dépens de la population. Selon un infirmier de la ville, en un an 70 personnes sont mortes à Deir ez-Zor de faim ou des suites de maladies qui auraient pu être facilement traitées dans des conditions normales. Le Programme alimentaire mondial (PAM) effectue alors un premier largage d'aide humanitaire le 24 février, mais l'ONU reconnaît le lendemain l'échec de l'opération : sur les 21 palettes contenant chacune une tonne de vivres, 10 ne sont pas retrouvées, 4 sont détruites et les 7 autres atterrissent dans des zones inaccessibles. Un nouveau largage d'aide humanitaire est effectué le 10 avril, cette fois avec succès ; 22 palettes sur 26 sont récupérées, soit assez pour nourrir  en un mois. Au total, 177 largages aériens sont ensuite effectués par le PAM entre avril 2016 et janvier 2017.

Phase d'affrontements ponctuels en 2016
Les combats reprennent en mars 2016. Le 23, l'EI progresse au nord de l'aéroport, dans le quartier d'al-Sina'aa  — ou al-Senaúh — lors d'affrontements qui font au moins 20 morts dans les rangs loyalistes et neuf chez les djihadistes selon l'OSDH. Le 2 avril, au moins 40 hommes de l'EI sont encore tués selon l'OSDH par des frappes aériennes vraisemblablement russes sur un village au nord-ouest de Deir ez-Zor. Le 4 avril, l'EI mène une nouvelle attaque contre l'aéroport et le village d'al-Jufrah. Le 19 avril, les djihadistes progressent dans la zone industrielle, au sud de la ville et le 20 avril, ils contrôlent entièrement le quartier d'al-Sina'aa.

Le 14 mai, l'EI s'empare d'un hôpital à Deir ez-Zor et selon l'OSDH, au moins 20 soldats syriens et six djihadistes sont tués. L'hôpital est repris quelques heures plus tard par les loyalistes et l'OSDH monte son bilan à au moins 50 morts et 3 prisonniers côté EI et 35 morts côté régime. Les patients et le personnel médical s'en sortent sain et sauf.

Le 25 juin, trois raids aériens syrio-russes visent la localité d'al-Kouriyé, au sud-est de Deir ez-Zor, et font au moins 82 morts — 58 civils et 24 personnes non-identifiées — selon l'OSDH. Puis le 15 septembre, d'autres raids tuent 23 civils et en blessent 30 autres dans la ville de Mayadine.

Le 17 septembre, l'État islamique attaque le bataillon d'artillerie sur le mont al-Tharda, près de l'aéroport. Les forces du régime reculent et se regroupent pour contre-attaquer. Les forces aériennes de la coalition interviennent alors mais elles bombardent par erreur les positions loyalistes. L'EI annonce ensuite, via Amaq, s'être emparé du mont al-Tharda. Selon le ministère russe de la défense, 62 soldats syriens sont tués et une centaine blessés par quatre frappes effectuées par deux F-16 et deux A-10. L'OSDH donne de son côté un bilan d'au moins 90 morts en citant une source militaire. La coalition reconnaît une erreur dans un communiqué et affirme qu'elle pensait frapper des combattants de l'État islamique. Le 19 septembre, le Royaume-Uni et l'Australie reconnaissent leur participation dans les frappes de Deir ez-Zor. Le ministère russe des Affaires étrangères déclare quant à lui que cette bavure est . De son côté, Bachar el-Assad accuse les États-Unis d'avoir intentionnellement visé ses soldats. Le 29 novembre, le Pentagone reconnaît sa responsabilité dans le bombardement et précise que les appareils qui avaient participé à ce raid étaient américains, britanniques, danois et australiens.

Offensive de l'État islamique en janvier 2017

Le 14 janvier 2017, renforcé par des armes, des munitions et des véhicules capturés lors de la troisième bataille de Palmyre, l'État islamique lance une nouvelle offensive majeure contre les positions du régime du général Issam Zahreddine. Le premier jour, plusieurs kamikazes se font exploser et au moins 12 soldats syriens et 20 djihadistes sont tués selon l'OSDH. Le 15 janvier, les djihadistes gagnent du terrain malgré plus de 120 frappes aériennes et s'emparent du mont Tardah et de plusieurs collines surplombant l'aéroport de Deir ez-Zor. En contrôlant ces hauteurs à proximité de l'aéroport, les djihadistes empêchent alors les loyalistes de dépêcher des avions et des hélicoptères à Deir ez-Zor pour ravitailler les assiégés. Les forces de l'EI profitent également pendant plusieurs jours d'un épais brouillard qui empêche l'aviation syrio-russe de les cibler. Le 16 janvier, les troupes de l'État islamique parviennent à couper en deux les positions loyalistes et à encercler l'aéroport qui se retrouve isolé du reste de la ville. Les quartiers de Deir ez-Zor se retrouvent alors privés de tout ravitaillement en vivres ; la voie vers l'aéroport étant désormais coupée, tandis que le Programme alimentaire mondial (PAM) doit suspendre ses largages de vivres à cause des combats. À cette période,   sont encore présents dans la poche de Deir ez-Zor tenue par le régime,  autres se sont enfuis depuis le début du siège en 2014. Les 17 et 18 janvier, les forces du régime parviennent cependant à acheminer quelques renforts via l'aéroport, dont des hommes du Hezbollah. Puis le 22 janvier, des hélicoptères parviennent à déposer une centaine de gardes républicains de la  brigade en renfort sur la base de la  brigade, au sud-ouest de la ville. L'armée syrienne ordonne également aux habitants de se rendre sur la ligne de front pour s'enrôler ; des adolescents auraient notamment été incorporés de force dans des milices. Les combats se poursuivent, mais les forces du régime parviennent à stabiliser la situation. Le 31 janvier, le PAM peut reprendre ses largages de nourriture et d'aide humanitaire. Les loyalistes tentent ensuite de reprendre l'initiative, mais malgré plusieurs tentatives, ils ne parviennent pas à rétablir la jonction entre l'aéroport et les quartiers d'Al-Joura et d'Al-Qoussour.

Selon l'OSDH, du 14 janvier au 14 février 2017, les combats ont fait au moins 127 morts côté régime, 241 côté EI, ainsi que 105 civils tués dont 23 enfants et 24 femmes. Parmi les civils, 59 — dont 10 enfants et 14 femmes — ont été tués par les bombardements du régime et de la Russie et 46 — dont 13 enfants et 10 femmes — par les tirs de l'État islamique. Le média pro-régime syrien Al-Masdar News donne quant à lui un bilan de 76 morts pour l'armée et plus de 200 tués du côté des djihadistes le 18 janvier. Tandis que le réseau d'informations DeirEzzor24, pro-opposition, chiffre le nombre des tués du côté des loyalistes à 200. Des exactions sont également commises par les djihadistes : selon DeirEzzor24, une dizaine de soldats sont exécutés en étant écrasés par des chars et selon l'OSDH, six têtes tranchées sont exposées dans les rues de la ville de Mayadine, au sud-est de Deir ez-Zor, le 18 janvier.

En janvier, le régime bénéficie cependant du ralliement de cheikh Nawaf al-Bachir, chef de la confédération tribale des Baggara, une des plus importantes de l'Est syrien, qui après avoir rallié l'opposition à Istanbul en 2012 fait officiellement acte de repentance et aurait entrepris de former une milice destinée à être envoyée à Deir ez-Zor.

Offensive loyaliste et rupture du siège en septembre 2017

À partir de mai 2017, l'armée syrienne lance une offensive d'envergure contre l'État islamique dans le désert syrien. Le 3 septembre, elle fait une percée à l'est d'Al-Soukhna et se rapproche de Deir ez-Zor par l'ouest, reprenant au passage le champ pétrolier d'Al-Kharata. En fin de journée, elle arrive à une dizaine de kilomètres de la base de la Brigade 137 et combat pour tenter de briser le siège de la ville. Le 4 septembre 2017, les troupes syriennes sont à  de la ville assiégée selon les médias syriens, et à  de l'aéroport sur un autre axe d'attaque selon l'Observatoire syrien des droits de l'homme (OSDH). Les troupes syriennes utilisent les frappes aériennes et l'artillerie lourde de manière intensive. Dans la matinée, la frégate russe Amiral Essen tire des missiles Kalibr depuis la Méditerranée contre une zone fortifiée près du village d'Al-Choula, au sud-ouest de Deir ez-Zor. Le même jour, Moscou annonce la mort de deux de ses soldats causés par des tirs d'artillerie de l'EI. Malgré les renforts de combattants étrangers, les contre-attaques de l'État islamique échouent et le 5 septembre, après une ultime poussée des chars à rouleaux de déminage, le siège des quartiers ouest est brisé près de la base de la brigade 137, à l'ouest de la ville. Les troupes du général Souheil al-Hassan commencent alors à opérer leur jonction avec les  du général Issam Zahreddine assiégés depuis trois ans à Deir ez-Zor ; cependant les djihadistes contrôlent toujours 60 % de la ville et l'aéroport reste encerclé.

Le 5 septembre un Soukhoï Su-34 et un Soukhoï Su-35 bombardent un poste de commandement souterrain de l'État islamique près de Deir ez-Zor. Trois jours plus tard, la Russie affirme qu'une quarantaine de djihadistes, dont quatre chefs ont été tués dans cette frappe, avec parmi eux Abou Mouhammad al Chimali, chef des combattants étrangers, et surtout Gulmurod Khalimov, le  de l'État islamique, qui grièvement touché, aurait succombé à ses blessures dans la région d'al-Mouhassane, à une vingtaine de kilomètres au sud-est de Deir ez-Zor.

Le 7 septembre, le régime fait convoyer vers Deir ez-Zor une quarantaine de camions du Croissant-Rouge afin de ravitailler la population qui souffre de pénuries. Un convoi de l'ONU, constitué de 12 camions du Croissant-Rouge, entre à son tour dans la ville le 15 septembre. À cette période,  civils se trouvent dans la partie de Deir ez-Zor tenue par le loyalistes, le nombre de ceux étant présents dans la partie occupée par l'État islamique étant alors estimé entre  et . La Russie expédie également 175 démineurs.

Le 8 septembre, les forces du régime lancent l'offensive pour tenter de briser le siège de l'aéroport : elles reprennent la localité d'Al-Choula, située à  au sud-ouest de Deir ez-Zer, puis attaquent par le sud ; en fin de journée les loyalistes affrontent les djihadistes dans un cimetière à un kilomètre de l'aéroport. Le 9 septembre, le siège de l'aéroport militaire est brisé. Le champ pétrolier d'al-Taym, au sud de la ville, est également repris. Selon l'OSDH, du 3 au 10 septembre, les combats à Deir ez-Zor ont fait au moins 57 morts, dont onze officiers, dans les rangs des loyalistes, contre au moins 174 morts, dont 29 kamikazes, du côté des djihadistes.

Le régime syrien prépare ensuite l'offensive pour reprendre le reste de la ville et achemine des renforts à Deir ez-Zor. Son objectif est alors de l'encercler. Le 10 septembre, le mont al-Tharda, à l'ouest de l'aéroport, est repris par les loyalistes. Ces derniers reprennent également le contrôle total de l'autoroute reliant Damas à Deir ez-Zor. Le 14 septembre, après avoir progressé dans la banlieue d'al-Boughaliya, au nord-ouest, les forces régime occupent 65 % de la ville de Deir ez-Zor.

Offensive des loyalistes et des Forces démocratiques syrienne, de septembre à novembre 2017

Face à la progression des troupes du régime syrien, les Forces démocratiques syriennes (FDS), soutenues par la coalition menée par les États-Unis, lancent également une offensive le 9 septembre contre l'État islamique dans les régions au nord de Deir ez-Zor. Dès le 10 septembre, elles arrivent à  des rives de l'Euphrate, face à la ville qui s'étend de l'autre côté du fleuve. Le 11 septembre, des responsables tribaux liés aux FDS, annoncent dans un communiqué leur intention de créer à Deir ez-Zor un . Mais le 14 septembre, la coalition affirme que l'offensive ne prévoit pas une entrée des FDS dans la ville.

Les frappes aérienne s'intensifient également dans la région de Deir ez-Zor, faisant de nombreuses victimes civiles : selon l'OSDH au moins 34 civils, dont neuf enfants, sont tués par l'aviation russe le 10 septembre dans des raids contre des ferrys aux abords du village d'al-Boulil, au sud-est de la ville ; le 11 septembre, au moins 19 civils sont encore tués par l'aviation russe dans le village d'al-Khrayta ; le 12 septembre, au moins 12 civils, dont cinq enfants, trouvent la mort dans une frappe de la coalition dans le village d'al-Chahabat, tandis que les avions russes tuent au moins sept civils dans le village de Hawayej Ziab et 16 autres, dont cinq enfants, dans la région de Zaghir Chamiyah lors de bombardements contre des tentes sur les rives de l'Euphrate ; le 14 septembre, au moins 13 civils sont tués par des raids russes à Mayadine et 26 autres dans des frappes menées contre d'autres localités, aussi bien par la Russie que par la coalition.

Le 15 septembre, les Forces démocratiques syriennes avertissent le régime syrien et le somment de ne pas faire traverser l'Euphrate à ses troupes ; le commandant Ahmad Abou Khawla déclare alors : . Le lendemain, pour la première fois à Deir ez-Zor, les FDS sont bombardées par les forces aériennes de la Russie ou du régime syrien, au nord-est de la ville, dans la zone industrielle ; les FDS affirment déplorer six blessés. Les États-Unis et les FDS accusent la Russie, qui dément.

Le 17 septembre, les loyalistes reprennent le village d'al-Jafra, à l'est de l'aéroport, et atteignent les rives de l'Euphrate ; les djihadistes se retrouvent alors à leur tour presque encerclés et acculés contre le fleuve. Le 18 septembre, malgré les avertissements des FDS, les troupes du régime syrien franchissent l'Euphrate au sud-est de Deir ez-Zor. Le même jour, les loyalistes s'emparent de l'île d'Hawija Sakr, à l'est de Deir ez-Zor, qui est alors contrôlée à 75 % par le régime selon l'OSDH.

Selon l'OSDH, du 18 au 25 septembre, les combats sur la rive est de l'Euphrate font au moins 79 morts dans les rangs loyalistes, dont sept soldats russes. Le 21 septembre, la Russie accuse à son tour les FDS d'avoir tiré à l'artillerie et au mortier contre les troupes gouvernementales et d'avoir ouvert des barrages en amont de l'Euphrate pour gêner la traversée du fleuve : Moscou avertit alors Washington qu'une riposte sera menée en cas de nouvel incident.

Les troupes du régime avancent également au nord-ouest de Deir ez-Zor et progressent le long de l'Euphrate ; le 17 septembre, elles reprennent la petite ville d'Ayyache. Le 20 septembre, les localités d'al-Masrab, al-Tabni, al-Turayif, al-Buwytiyah et Khan Zahra sont reconquises à leur tour. Enfin, le 23 septembre, les loyalistes reprennent Madan ; toute la rive ouest de l'Euphrate, de Deir ez-Zor à Raqqa, est alors contrôlée par le régime.

Le 24 septembre, le général russe Valeri Assapov, chef du  corps des forces armées syriennes, est tué près de Deir ez-Zor par un obus de mortier tiré par les hommes de l'État islamique.

Cependant le 28 septembre, les troupes de l'État islamique mènent une contre-attaque au sud d'al-Soukhna : elles reprennent le village d'al-Choula et coupent la route reliant Deir ez-Zor à al-Soukhna. Selon l'OSDH, au moins 73 soldats et miliciens du régime sont tués dans cette action ; l'État islamique revendique pour sa part une centaine de tués. Selon le Hezbollah, l'axe routier est à nouveau sous contrôle le 29 septembre.

Selon l'OSDH, au moins 60 civils sont tués le 4 octobre par des raids de l'aviation russe contre des bateaux et des canots pneumatiques qui transportaient des dizaines de familles venues de la ville d'al-Ashara en train de traverser le fleuve pour échapper aux combats. Au moins 38 habitants de Deir ez-Zor sont aussi tués le même jour dans des bombardements russes. Le 6 octobre, au moins 14 civils de Mahkane sont encore tués par des avions russes en essayant de franchir le fleuve sur des radeaux de fortune. Au total, au moins 191 civils trouvent la mort dans des bombardements dans le gouvernorat de Deir ez-Zor entre le 29 septembre et le 4 octobre 2017.

Le 17 octobre, les troupes loyalistes font une nouvelle poussée dans la ville de Deir ez-Zor, qu'elles contrôlent alors à 92 % selon l'OSDH. Mais le 18 octobre, le commandant en chef de la garnison de Deir ez-Zor, le major-général Issam Zahreddine, est tué à l'intérieur de la ville par l'explosion d'une mine.

Le 25 octobre, l'armée syrienne reprend le contrôle de la zone industrielle de Deir ez-Zor. Le 26 octobre, elle s'empare de l'île d'Hawijet Sakr.

Le 28 octobre, les combats sont les plus violents depuis la rupture du siège selon l'OSDH : les loyalistes reprennent deux quartiers et le stade municipal ; au moins 50 djihadistes et 23 soldats et miliciens gouvernementaux sont tués. Le , l'ODSH affirme ensuite qu'au moins 41 loyalistes et 101 djihadistes ont été tués lors des quatre jours précédents. Les dernières zones tenues par les djihadistes sont intensivement bombardées et des femmes mènent des opérations kamikazes. Le 2 novembre, les forces du régime syrien s'emparent des derniers quartiers contrôlés par l'État islamique — Al-Hwiqa, Sheikh Yasin et Al-Ardi — la ville de Deir ez-Zor est alors entièrement reconquise.

Les pertes civiles
Selon l'Observatoire syrien des droits de l'homme (OSDH), au moins 334 civils, dont 69 femmes et 75 enfants, sont tués par les frappes aériennes de la Russie et du régime syrien à Deir ez-Zor et ses environs, entre le 22 mai et le 16 septembre 2017. Au cours de la même période, l'OSDH recense également à Mayadine la mort de 288 civils, dont 85 femmes et 103 enfants, causées par les frappes aériennes du régime syrien, de la Russie et de la coalition, ainsi que la mort d'au moins 170 civils, dont 18 femmes et 44 enfants dans d'autres localités du gouvernorat de Deir ez-Zor.

Entre le 10 septembre et le 5 novembre 2017, l'OSDH fait état de la mort d'au moins 754 civils dans le gouvernorat de Deir ez-Zor, dont 140 femmes et 175 enfants, et  :
 523 morts au moins, dont 102 femmes et 108 enfants, causés par les forces aériennes du régime syrien et de la Russie ;
 159 morts au moins, dont 25 femmes et 50 enfants, causés par les forces aériennes de la coalition ;
 31 morts au moins, dont 7 femmes et 13 enfants, causés par les tirs d'artillerie du régime ;
 38 morts au moins, dont 6 femmes et 4 enfants, exécutés ou tués par balles par les troupes du régime.

Liens externes

Voir aussi
 Frantz Glasman, Deïr ez-Zor, à l'est de la Syrie. Des islamistes, des tribus et du pétrole…, Un œil sur la Syrie, 8 décembre 2013.
 Grégoire Chambaz, La bataille de Deir Ez Zor, un exemple de la guerre moderne, Courrier d'Orient, 14 mai 2015.
 Fabrice Balanche, Deir el-Zor : un pont russo-américain contre l'EI ?, Libération, 17 mai 2016.
 Soldats d'Assad 4/La  brigade de la Garde Républicaine, Historicoblog, 27 janvier 2017.
 Mourir pour le califat 81/Aux portes des batailles épiques-Wilayat al-Khayr, Historicoblog,  avril 2017.
 Guillaume Perrier, Syrie : contre Daech, Deir ez-Zor sera la bataille finale, Europe 1 le JDD, 25 juillet 2017.
 Basheer Alzalaan, Témoignage. "Chez moi, à Deir ez-Zor, en Syrie, la situation est plus grave que jamais", Europe 1 le JDD, 26 octobre 2017.
 De la difficulté d'identifier les unités de l'État islamique: l'exemple de la division Zubayr ibn al-Awwam, France Soir, 23 novembre 2017.

Vidéographie
  Syrie: Deir Ezzor (Est) en ruines après neuf mois de combats, AFP, 18 février 2013.
  Francetvinfo : Syrie : Deir Ezzor, le point de chute des radicalisés français, reportage de France 2.
  Syrie : un bastion clé de Daech est tombé, France 3, 17 septembre 2017.
  Syrie : les conséquences de la reprise de Deir Ezzor par l'armée syrienne, France 24, 3 novembre 2017.
  Syrie : les images de la ville de Deir ez-Zor en ruines, Le Monde avec Reuters, 7 novembre 2017.

Cartes des combats
 Cartes des combats réalisées par Agathocle de Syracuse.

Reportages photographiques
 Deir ez-Zor, bastion assiégé du régime Assad, reportage photographique en mai 2015 par un photographe de l'agence Contact Press Images.

Notes et références

Bataille de la guerre civile syrienne
Bataille de 2012
Bataille de 2013
Bataille de 2014
Bataille de 2015
Bataille de 2016
Bataille de 2017
Bataille impliquant l'État islamique
bataille

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Проверка гипотез в здравоохранении
Университет Джонса Хопкинса
4.8 (оценок: 561)
Количество зарегистрированных учащихся: 14 тыс.
Курс 2 из 4 — Biostatistics in Public Health Специализация
Biostatistics is an essential skill for every public health researcher because it provides a set of precise methods for extracting meaningful conclusions from data. In this second course of the Biostatistics in Public Health Specialization, you'll learn to evaluate sample variability and apply statistical hypothesis testing methods. Along the way, you'll perform calculations and interpret real-world data from the published scientific literature. Topics include sample statistics, the central limit theorem, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and p values.
Confidence Interval, Statistical Hypothesis Testing, p values, sampling
excellant descriptions, good examples and challenging practice sessions. Better if some more were added about ANOVA also. If it is considered as advanced , then it is ok. Good experience
Excellent course, excellent teaching. Prof McGready knows his stuff and also knows how to teach it. The projects exercices are fun to work on and see how statistics is used in research.
Confidence Intervals for Population Comparison Measures
Within module three, confidence intervals are discussed at length and ratios are discussed again. Aside from the lectures, you will also be completing a practice quiz and graded quiz.
Introduction2:06
Confidence Intervals for Population Comparison Measures15:08
Confidence Intervals for Comparing Means of Continuous Outcomes Between Two Populations28:24
Confidence Intervals for Binary Comparisons: Part 1, Difference in Proportions12:07
Confidence Intervals for Binary Comparisons: Part 2, Ratio of Proportions and Odds Ratios24:13
Confidence Intervals for Incidence Rate Ratios10:19
A Brief Note About Ratios (Again)11:14
Additional Examples17:49
John McGready, PhD, MS
Associate Scientist, Biostatistics
Выбор языкаptPtАнглийскийАрабскийВьетнамскийИспанскийИтальянскийНемецкийРусскийФранцузский
Hey guys, John here again, and in lecture set eight here we're going to consider taking into account sampling variability through confidence intervals where we're looking at measures that compare two populations using data from two samples. We'll find out the general drill for creating confidence intervals for things like mean differences or differences in proportions is the same as what we saw for single measures. We take our estimated difference and then subtract two estimated standard errors and we'll show how to do that. Then for ratios and we've alluded to this before, we're going to need to take things to the log scale before doing their confidence interval computations. So, it'll be a two-step process where we first do the computations for the confidence interval in the log ratio scale and then anti-log or exponentiate our results back to the ratio scale. So, in this process we'll see that generally again, the procedure is similar across all these computations. We take our estimate of interests and add and subtract two standard errors, but we'll also focus on interpreting the range of possible values for association measure whether it be a mean difference, difference in proportions, relative risk etc. Interpreting that in the scientific context and paying attention to something called a null value whose presence would indicate no association at the population level. We're going to be very interested as to whether that number appears in our confidence interval or not. So for example, if we were computing a difference between two populations for example, mean difference, there are really no difference at the population level then the true mean difference would be zero. So, we're going to be concerned about whether zero appears as a possible value in our confidence interval or not, and if not we're going to define the concept called statistically significant and talk about that as well. So, this will be a really interesting lecture set, so we'll start seeing how the results and inclusions were made for some of the seminal studies we've looked at and other studies as well.


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text:
Jason Bentley
Held Accountable for Secure Code?
Open Source Intimidation
Kinda Creepy
Oracle to buy Seibel
Lexington Code Camp - October 14 and 15
Idiot Drivers
August CTP of Enterprise Library for .NET 2.0
Congratulations to Scott Reynolds
Garter's Magic Quadrant for Web Services
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No Fun Intended Shoo! You are debugging the crap outta me!
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How does the .NET Open Source Community compare?
I began contemplating how the .NET open source community compares with others today. There is no real way to compare apples to apples because most languages and projects are cross-platform today. Probably the best comparison is between Java and .NET but I will list stats from most of the major languages. Also, there is no single place to gather statistics from. Probably the most popular .NET Open Source Community is GotDotNet while SourceForge is probably the most popular for Java and C++. So, I will give a list of statistics from each site and how they compare:
Source Forge3 GotDotNet3
C++1 14,946 C++ 882
Java 14,272 Java 0
C# 2,243 C# 5,687
VB.NET2 113 VB.NET 3,363
PHP 10,560 PHP 0
Delphi/Kylix 14,445 Delphi/Kylix 0
Assembly 1,509 Assembly 0
Perl 5,730 Perl 0
Python 3,815 Python 0
SourceForge does not distinguish between C++ and C++.NET.
There are some projects that are listed under the Visual Basic language that use VB.NET.
Many projects on SourceForge are written using multiple languages (such as C++ and Java) though they can be browsed per language. This may also be the case for GotDotNet.
So, where do we stand? I do not think we will ever match the C/C++ communities for the simple reason that we will never have an open-source operating system written in .NET like Linux. This community has an open source operating system written with open source tools running thousands of open source applications written with those same tools. We have Microsoft who have published several top-notch operating systems with what I would call the best IDE ever comprised (though Eclipse is outstanding in it's own right and a closer match than what you may think) and they are only getting better. Also, the .NET community, in many respects, duplicates what has all ready been done in the other communities. (NUnit, NAnt, many different bug collection apps duplicating BugZilla, etc. This DOES NOT undermine the value of the projects or the work put into them, they are valuable contributions.) Where is the innovation? There are some exceptions, but it is generally the rule. Finally, we do not have a strong open source repository like Source Forge for the .NET community. GotDotNet is great but it is ONLY the first step. And, it should be a site not created and operated by Microsoft. What do you think it will take? Posted on Thursday, March 10, 2005 8:08 PM .NET , Open Source , Musings & Ramblings | Back to top
Build and Deploy a Blazor App Without Touching a W... .Net
Creating Trimmed Self Contained Executables in .NE... .Net
You Can Get the Source Code for Apollo 11 and Even... open source
SQL Server error: "Failed to create AppDomain "ma... .NET
Benefits of customized .NET Application Developmen... .net
Comments on this post: How does the .NET Open Source Community compare?
# re: How does the .NET Open Source Community compare?
A couple of thoughts...
Although GDN has a number of C# and VB .NET projects, most are just power toys or someone's class library. I don't think GDN and SourceForge can be compared. Although GDN attempts to serve the same context as SourceForge, it really doesn't - the content focus is quite different.
I don't believe the success of open source is stronger in non-.NET communities becuase those communities have open source operating systems and tools, etc. The big issue is how .NET culture looks to Microsoft first for approval on tools/approaches. Even though there's a vibrant thrid-party market for .NET tools, most .NET developers wait till Microsoft ships something before getting engaged. It's only recently that Microsoft developer culture started to emulate Java culture and to look to itself for tools. It's early yet. Many still believe that only the Official Tools are safe. They would rather wait for VSTS than to download NUnit and begin learning now.
The reason why the .NET open source community is porting Java tools is that .NET practice maturity has a lot of catch up to do. Although the technologies might be similar, the way that the Java community uses technology typically reflects a much deeper understanding of software development. The tools that the Java community has created to support their practices are being ported to .NET as .NET culture wakes up to the realizations of why these tools exist. Microsoft doesn't provide much practice guidance, and doesn't ecourage practice maturity as part of its core value proposition as much as it encourages the purchase of their products - and that's ok, it's what they do after all. Open source is a new focus in Microsoft developer culture and it'll likely be a while before we're innovating in open source at the rate and depth of the Java community.
Why do we need a separate community for .NET open source? Keeping to SourceForge will bolster the cross-pollination of knowledge and practice. It's this cross-pollination that brought about NUnit, NAnt, etc. It's necessary to the innovation.
Left by Scott Bellware on Mar 12, 2005 4:08 PM
I agree with much of what you say but there are a few points that I think are invalid. Mainly that SourceForge is a necessity. I don't think it is. With the accessibility of today's search engines, any thing you want, you can find. There are MANY features that could be plugged into VS.NET that SourceForge will never provide like GotDotNet's source client.
Your point about 'catching up' is very valid but are we not approaching that scale? Surely, there are many more Java projects than .NET projects but many are slightly altered copies of previous development efforts. How many more projects are left that are essential to the developer community. I also wonder what will happen when Mono becomes widely adopted by Linux developers waiting to make the jump. I think that will bring about real innovation.
Left by Jason Bentley on Mar 16, 2005 2:27 PM
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PARASITE (2019) boasts a universal story and mesmerising, unpredictable thrills
Stephen Parthimos February 14, 2020 2019, Oscars, Reviews
Bong Joon Ho has crafted a near immaculate film that is exquisitely shot, very well acted and boasts a story that is not only incredibly unpredictable, but also one of the most universal that's ever been put to screen. It follows a lower-class family, the Kims, who become servants to an upper-class family, the Parks, and things get out of control when they're caught in a web of lies and deception.
It's been a while since I saw a film with a story that managed to shock and surprise me to this extent, the entire way through, to the very last shot… until Parasite. I didn't have the slightest clue where this story would go. Through the entire first, second and third act everything that happened was a complete shock, making for one of the most engaging and thrilling stories of 2019. It's a story with multiple layers that continue to unravel the more you pay attention, revealing more layers that only reveal more layers. The twists and turns around every corner left me in awe at the truly astounding writing from Bong Joon Ho, and then you get to the final act where it goes places you'd have never imagined.
Not only are there countless thrills and unexpected moments spread throughout the story, it's also a journey with a lot of social commentary and a higher meaning embedded in the core of what this film is. The metaphorical and quite literal statements made throughout the film fit organically with what is happening on the screen, so none of what the film is trying to say feels out of place or forced. Every element of this story is immaculate. There's a reason this film won the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay; there is not a single hole you could poke in this story, even if you tried. It's an astounding blend of crime, drama, thrills, black comedy and social commentary, all tightly woven into this masterpiece of filmmaking.
Bong Joon Ho's directing is what ties everything in this film together to form a tightly-knit final product where absolutely everything works in unison towards a common goal. Nothing feels out of place, every performance is on point, every shot is exquisitely framed and every piece of score is designed to suck you further into every scene. But speaking of performances, this is one of the strongest ensembles of the year. Song Kang-ho, Choi Woo-shik, Park So-dam and Lee Jeong-eun are incredible as the Kim family, each portraying the various mannerisms and unique personalities of their characters to utter perfection. How they interact as a family is endlessly entertaining to watch and their chemistry radiates off the screen.
Just as strong as the Kim family performances are the performances from Lee Sun-Kyun and Jo Yeo-jeong, who make up two thirds of the Park family. Their interactions with each other and how they compare to the way the Kim's interact paints a stark contrast that adds a tonne of depth to the film. The dialogue across the board is delivered fantastically, to where despite not being in English, there's not a single bit of any performance that was lost in translation.
There's not much else I can say about Parasite without getting into spoiler territory, other than the fact that it's absolutely phenomenal. The calculated pace and building tension is astounding, performances are riveting, writing is exceptional and Bong's directing is out of this world. The vision he had in his mind has clearly been bought to life on screen across every department, hence why he took home the gold at the Oscars. For a wholly unique experience you've never witnessed, do yourself a favour and check out the spectacular cinematic masterpiece that is Bong Joon Ho's Parasite.
2019, Best Picture, Bong Joon Ho, Drama, Film, Movie, Movie Review, Mystery, Oscars, Parasite, Review, South Korea, Thriller
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You are here: Home / News / Labour TD's pledge on Irish Water a clear attempt to mislead electorate – Matt Carthy MEP
Labour TD's pledge on Irish Water a clear attempt to mislead electorate – Matt Carthy MEP
Sinn Féin MEP for the Midlands North West and Director of Elections Matt Carthy has stated that the actions of some Labour TDs in signing the SIPTU pledge on a referendum to ensure that Irish Water remains in public ownership will do nothing to restore the trust of the Irish people.
Speaking in advance of a series of demonstrations planned across the state this Saturday, Carthy said:
"I am sure the Irish people will remember the "pledge" made by Labour TD Ruairí Quinn four days out from election 2011 in relation to student fees.
"Similarly, in its 2011 election manifesto, Labour argued against the introduction of Water Charges on the basis that it did not address the needs of people with poor water supply.
"A Sinn Féin Private Member's Bill in 2014 which sought to enshrine in the constitution the right of the people to the retention of water services and infrastructure in public ownership was voted down by the very TDs who have signed this pledge.
"The hypocrisy and sheer brass neck of Labour TDs lining up to "pledge" their commitment to a referendum on the public ownership on Irish Water is truly sickening.
"But in the words of Pat Rabitte – isn't that what you tend to do during an election?
"It is clear that only a Sinn Féin led Government can be trusted to abolish water charges and dismantle Irish Water.
"This stunt, a pathetic attempt to mislead the electorate, demonstrates that the Right2Water Campaign is succeeding – the pressure is mounting on Government TDs to account to the people on this issue.
"I am calling on all those who are opposed to the introduction of water charges to attend their local demonstration on Saturdayand send a clear message to this Government – your days in office are numbered."
Filed under News · Tagged with Irish Water, Labour, Matt Carthy MEP, Right2Water


Bit concerned about what kit is needed - is it ski gear - salopettes, jacket, goggles or is it more walking type clothes - or lightweight ski clothes......help!
we went to Dobbiaco last year with another company - you'll have a great time. Clothing wise we covered both ends of the spectrum - wife in salopettes and thermal under layers, self in lycra cycling tights plus thermals underneath. the professional all wear lycra - but then are probably burning rather remote calories than we were as second timers. If you get an opportunity go up to Prato Piazza - an elevated plain about 5 miles away.
Thanks for email - getting suitecase out now to start packing! thinki i'll give the lycra a miss and stick to the salopettes and layers on this occasion.
Really looking forward to trip.