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Debt Rattle March 31 2017
March 31, 2017 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 8:59 am Finance Tagged with: crash, deep subprime, ECB, Flynn, Juncker, Keynes, neo-liberalism, recession, refugees, reshuffle, wildlife Comments Off on Debt Rattle March 31 2017
Rene Magritte Memory 1944
• Last Two Times After US Reported Data Like This, Stocks Crashed (WS)
• One Third Of US Car Loans Is Deep Subprime (Roberts)
• The Fed Is Bedeviled by Keynes's Paradox (DiMartino Booth)
• Flynn Lawyer: Client Wants Assurances Against 'Witch-Hunt' Prosecution (USAT)
• Who Gains When Income Grows? (Tcherneva)
• Puerto Rico Is Starting To Look An Awful Lot Like Greece (Setser)
• Former Australia PM: Neo-Liberalism Has Run Into A Dead End (SMH)
• Why Australia Hasn't Had a Recession in Over 25 Years (BBG)
• Why Australia Is Addicted To Interest-Only Loans (AFR)
• Juncker In Jaw-Dropping Threat To Trump Over Support For Brexit (Exp.)
• The European Central Bank Doesn't Understand The Economy (Steve Keen)
• Why Italy's Banking Crisis Has Gone Off the Radar (DQ)
• Global Reshuffle Of Wildlife Will Have Huge Impacts On Humanity (G.)
• More Than 5 Million Syrian Refugees In Neighbouring Countries Now (G.)
Many scary graphs today. Let's start here.
The BEA offers various measures of corporate profits, slicing and dicing them in different ways. One of them is its headline number: "Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments." It estimates "profits from current production," based on profits before taxes, not adjusted for inflation, but with adjustments for inventory valuation (IVA) and capital consumption (CCAdj).These adjustments convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets (as they appear on tax returns) to the current-cost economic measures used in GDP calculations. It's a broad measure, taking into account profits by all corporations, not just the S&P 500 companies. This measure is reflected in the first chart below.
Later, we'll get into after-tax measures without those adjustments. They look even worse. In Q4, profits rose to $2.15 trillion seasonally adjusted annual rate. That's what the annual profit would be after four quarters at this rate. But profits in the prior three quarters were lower. And so Q4 brought the year total to $2.085 trillion. This was down from 2015, and it was down from 2014, and it was up only 2.6% from 2013, not adjusted for inflation. This 20-year chart shows that measure. Note that the profits are not adjusted for inflation, and there was a lot of inflation over those 20 years:
Things get even more interesting when we look at after-tax profits on a quarterly basis. The chart below shows two measures: Dark blue line: Corporate Profits after tax without adjustments for inventory valuation and capital consumption (so without IVA & CCAdj). Light blue line: Corporate Profits after tax with adjustments for inventory valuation and capital consumption (so with IVA & CCAdj). Q4 profits, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, but not adjusted for inflation, were back where they'd been in Q1 2012:
By this measure, corporate profits have been in a volatile five-year stagnation. However, during that time – since Q1 2012 – the S&P 500 index has soared 70%. [..] The chart also shows that there were two prior multi-year periods of profit stagnation and even decline while the stock market experienced a massive run-up: from 1996 through 2000, leading to the dotcom crash; and from 2005 through 2008, which ended in the Financial Crisis. This peculiar phenomenon – soaring stock prices during years of flat or declining profits – is now repeating itself. The end point of the prior two episodes was a lot of bloodletting in the markets that then refocused companies – the survivors – on what they needed to do to make money. For a little while at least, it focused executives on productive activities, rather than on financial engineering, M&A, and similar lofty projects. And it showed in their profits.
People have no money to spend. But they do need a car in the US.
Given the lack of wage growth, consumers are needing to get payments down to levels where they can afford them. Furthermore, about 1/3rd of the loans are going to individuals with credit scores averaging 550 which carry much higher rates up to 20%. In fact, since 2010, the share of sub-prime Auto ABS origination has come from deep subprime deals which have increased from just 5.1% in 2010 to 32.5% currently. That growth has been augmented by the emergence of new deep sub-prime lenders which are lenders who did not issue loans prior to 2012. While there has been much touting of the strength of the consumer in recent years, it has been a credit driven mirage.
With income growth weak, debt levels elevated and rent and health care costs chipping away at disposable incomes, in order to make payments even remotely possible, terms are often stretched to 84 months. The eventual issue is that since cars are typically turned over every 3-5 years on average, borrowers are typically upside down in their vehicle when it comes time to trade it in. Between the negative equity of their trade-in, along with title, taxes, and license fees, and a hefty dealer profit rolled into the original loan, there is going to be a substantial problem down the road. [..] Auto loans, in general, have been in a huge boom that reached $1.11 trillion in the fourth quarter 2016. As noted above, 33.5% of those loans are sub-prime, or $371.85 billion.
And that's in a country in crisis. People are scared. "Some $11.7 trillion is sitting in bank deposits, up from $7.23 trillion at the start of 2009.."
The economist John Maynard Keynes warned that ultra-low interest rates would backfire on central banks seeking to spur borrowing and spending, yet they seemed surprised that the current recovery is the weakest in postwar history after cutting rates to near zero, or even below in some cases. Keynes is credited with popularizing the "paradox of thrift," which is the economic theory that posits people tend to save more during recessions as rates fall to offset the income their savings is not generating. Of course it is the case that when you save more, you spend less. Since the U.S. economy is fueled by consumption, it also stands to reason that growth suffers as a result.
It's been two years since Swiss Re produced a report that calculated U.S. savers had foregone some $470 billion in interest income. The analysis was based on what rates would have been had the Federal Reserve followed the Taylor Rule, which would have put rates, then at zero, at 1.7%. Even as the Fed has begun to raise rates, it is clear that hundreds of billions of dollars have been squirreled away as savers play defense to counteract the Fed's ultraloose monetary policy. Some $11.7 trillion is sitting in bank deposits, up from $7.23 trillion at the start of 2009 shortly after the Fed cut rates to near zero, central bank data show.
The WSJ was first, then all the media ran with it. But Flynn did NOT ask for immunity. At least not that we know. Both Nunes and Schiff deny it's been discussed. Flyn's lawyer doesn't mention it. Smells like fake news. There's so much wrong with the man, why make things up? Everyone's salivating over potential problems he could cause for Trump, but we'll get to that when it's time.
The attorney representing President Trump's former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn said late Thursday that his client would not submit to questioning in the ongoing investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 election without protection against possible prosecution. "No reasonable person, who has the benefit of advice from counsel, would submit to questioning in such a highly politicized, witch-hunt environment without assurances against unfair prosecution," attorney Robert Kelner said in a written statement. Describing his client as the target of "unsubstantiated public demands by members of congress and other political critics that he be criminally investigated," Kelner confirmed that there have been "discussions" regarding Flynn's possible appearances before the House and Senate Intelligence committees now conducting formal inquires into Russia's attempts to disrupt the American political system.
"Gen. Flynn certainly has a story to tell, and he very much wants to tell it, should the circumstances permit," Kelner said. "Out of respect for the committees, we will not comment right now on the details of discussions between counsel for Gen. Flynn and the . . . committees." Jack Langer, spokesman for the House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes, R-Calif., said a deal for immunity has not been discussed. An aide to California Rep. Adam Schiff, the panel's ranking Democrat, also said there had been no discussions about an immunity deal for Flynn. Earlier this week, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr, R-N.C., signaled that the committee was seeking testimony from Flynn. "You would think less of us if Gen. Flynn wasn't on that list'' of potential witnesses, Burr told reporters Wednesday.
It's gotten so out of hand you'd almost think it would be easy to mitigate.
Growth in the US increasingly brings income inequality. A striking deterioration in this trend has occurred since the 80s, when economic recoveries delivered the vast majority of income growth to the wealthiest US households. The chart illustrates that with every postwar expansion, as the economy grew, the bottom 90% of households received a smaller and smaller share of that growth. Even though their share was falling, the majority of families still captured the majority of the income growth until the 70s. Starting in the 80s, the trend reverses sharply: as the economy recovers from recessions, the lion's share of income growth goes to the wealthiest 10% of families. Notably, the entire 2001-2007 recovery produced almost no income growth for the bottom 90% of households and, in the first years of recovery since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, their incomes kept falling during the expansion, delivering all benefits from growth to the wealthiest 10%. A similar trend is observed when one considers the bottom 99% and top 1%% of households.
Figure 1: bottom 90% vs. top 10%, 1949-2012 expansions (incl. capital gains)
[..] Finally, Figure 6 shows how income growth has been distributed over the different business cycles (peak to peak, i.e., including both contractions and expansions). The data for the latest cycle is incomplete, as we are still in it. The graph indicates that in the current cycle, incomes for all groups are still lower than their previous peak in 2007, however the loss is disproportionately borne by the bottom 90% of households.
Figure 6: bottom 90% vs. top 10%, 1953-2015 business cycles, (incl. capital gains)
I made the same comparison a while back.
About two weeks ago, Puerto Rico's oversight board approved Puerto Rico's revised fiscal plan. The fiscal plan is roughly the equivalent in Puerto Rico's case of an IMF program—it sets out Puerto Rico's plan for fiscal adjustment. Hopefully it will make Puerto Rico's finances a bit easier to understand.* I have been a bit slow to comment on the updated fiscal plan, but wanted to offer my own take:
1) Best I can tell, the new plan has roughly 2 percentage points of GNP in fiscal adjustment in 2018 and 2019, and then a percentage point a year in 2020 and 2021. The total consolidation is close to 6% of GNP (using a GNP of around $65 billion, and netting out the impact of replacing Act 154 revenues with new tax).
2) The board adopted a more conservative baseline. Puerto Rico's real economy is projected to contract by between 3 and 4% in 2018 and 2019 and by 1 to 2% in 2020 and 2021. I applaud the board for recognizing that the large fiscal consolidation required in 2018 and 2019 will be painful. The risks to the growth baseline—and thus to future tax revenues—should be balanced. There though is a risk that the board may still be understating the drag from consolidation. If Puerto Rico is currently shrinking by 1.5% a year without any fiscal drag, and if the multiplier is 1.5, then growth might contract by 2 to 3% in 2020 or 2021.
3) While creditors have complained that Puerto Rico isn't doing enough, I worry that there is still too much consolidation too fast: Puerto Rico's output is projected to fall by another 10 percentage points over the next five years, which would make Puerto Rico's ten year economic contraction as deep as that experienced by Greece.
"We have a comatose world economy held together by debt and central bank money.."
Former prime minister Paul Keating – architect of some of the most profound economic reforms in the country's history during the 1980s – has launched a surprise critique of the liberal economic philosophy he once championed, declaring it has "run into a dead end". Mr Keating made his remarks in response to a speech delivered by the new leader of the ACTU, Sally McManus, at the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday. Ms McManus declared that "neo-liberalism" had run its course, and that experiments in privatisation had failed, slamming the government over mooted penalty rate cuts, accusing many employers of adopting "wage theft" as a business model, and declaring war on growing inequality.
"We are not saying that the people who introduced some of the policies that you could name as being neo-liberal were bad people, we are saying the experiment has run its course," Ms McManus said, in response to questions. Earlier in her speech she had declared that "the Keating years created vast wealth for Australia but it has not been shared". While many saw her remarks as a partial slapdown of the economic reforms of the Hawke/Keating years, Mr Keating told Fairfax Media he supported some of her assessments. "Liberal economics had [in the past] dramatically increased wealth around the world, as it had in Australia – for instance a 50% increase in real wages and a huge lift in personal wealth," Mr Keating said.
"But since 2008, liberal economics has gone nowhere and to the extent that Sally McManus is saying this, she is right." "We have a comatose world economy held together by debt and central bank money," Mr Keating added."Liberal economics has run into a dead end and has had no answer to the contemporary malaise."
Simple story. China and private debt.
Australia is close to seizing the global crown for the longest streak of economic growth thanks to a mixture of policy guile and outrageous fortune. But the nation is creaking under the weight of its own success. While growth is being underpinned by population gains and resource exports to China, failure to spur productivity has meant stagnant living standards and electoral discontent; a property bubble fueled by record-low interest rates has driven household debt to levels that threaten financial stability; and a timid government facing political gridlock could lose the nation's prized AAA rating as early as May because of spiraling budget deficits. Australia's last recession – defined locally as two straight quarters of contraction – occurred in 1991 and was a devastating conclusion to eight years of reform designed to create an open, flexible and competitive economy. But it also proved cathartic, paving the way for a low-inflation, productivity-driven expansion.
As momentum started waning, China's re-emergence as a pre-eminent global economic power sent demand for Australian resources skyrocketing, helping shield the nation from the worst of the global financial crisis. But the post-crisis return of the boom proved ephemeral, failing to boost government coffers and pushing the local currency higher, eroding competitiveness and driving another nail into the coffin of a fading manufacturing sector. [..] "There's no country on Earth that's derived more benefit from the rapid growth
and industrialization of China over the last 30-odd years than Australia," said Saul Eslake, an independent economist who's covered Australia for over three decades. "After the end of the mining-investment boom, high immigration is helping us avoid a statistical recession, but it's also contributing to other problems" like soaring property prices and household debt.
[..] A record-low 1.5% cash rate designed to steer Australia from mining investment back toward services is creating problems of its own. Sydney house prices have more than doubled since 2009 and Melbourne's have also soared, sending private debt to a record 187% of income. The RBA frets that anemic wage growth will force heavily indebted households to slash consumption, which could prove disastrous given their spending accounts for more than half of GDP. Australia's banking regulator further tightened lending curbs Friday to try to cool investor demand for residential property that's helped drive up prices. Data released hours later showed investor lending increased 6.7% in February from a year earlier, the fastest growth in 12 months.
[..] iron ore prices have more than halved since 2011, when the local dollar hit a post-float record of $1.10. The Aussie would hover at or above parity with the greenback for the next two years. The currency's strength then saw off the car industry: two of the three manufacturers in 2013 said they were quitting Australia, with the last following suit the next year. While the currency would eventually retreat to the 70s, the damage had been done. Worse still, the trillion-dollar windfall from the boom had been spent, not saved, leaving no cash to plug yawning budget deficits or build much-needed infrastructure for an expanding population that would also support growth.
Right. No crisis in 25 years.
When the head of one of America's largest real estate firms was shown a chart tracking the rising share of interest-only loans in Australia, he gasped in horror. As a man that has "seen many cycles", he told an Australian bank investor that a rise in interest-only loans was a classic indicator of a dangerously over-heating market. Friday's move by the prudential regulator to combat the rise of interest-only loans shows they tend to agree with that assessment. High but rising household debt levels, elevated property prices and ultra low interest rates has made Australian Prudential Regulation Authority Wayne Byres decidedly uneasy about the nation's preference not to repay their loans but simply service the interest.
They have therefore told the banks that less than 30% of new mortgages can be "interest only" – which is substantially below the last reported figure of 38% of total loans. In fact, the percentage of interest-only loans has not been below 30% since 2008. And while many would dismiss comparisons between the rise of interest only lending in Australia and the teaser rate loans that lured in sub-prime borrowers in the US ahead of its 2008 housing crash, a market propped up by artificially low borrowing rates is a recipe for disaster. Australia is of course different and there have been unique forces that have fuelled our historic addiction to interest-only loans. The first is a hot-button issue – negative gearing. Since Australia's tax code allows households to tax deduct interest payments on investor loans, the incentive is to opt for interest only loans.
It's in the investment lending area where interest only loans are most prevalent. The banks are also aware that most interest only loans are to investors that own two or more properties and are managing their overall cash flows by servicing the interest. In fact, interest only loans reached a peak of 45% of new loans in 2014 before APRA's 10% cap on investor lending was introduced. That coincided with a decline to an average of around 35%. The other driver behind the rise of interest only loans has been the mortgage broking industry – which intermediates about half of all loans by the big banks.
For once he's joking and they take him serious. When Juncker says he's "..going to promote the independence of Austin, Texas..", He doesn't mean he's literally going to do it.
EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker this afternoon issued a jaw-dropping threat to the United States, saying he could campaign to break up the country in revenge for Donald Trump's supportive comments about Brexit. In an extraordinary speech the EU Commission president said he would push for Ohio and Texas to split from the rest of America if the Republican president does not change his tune and become more supportive of the EU. The remarks are diplomatic dynamite at a time when relations between Washington and Brussels are already strained over Europe's meagre contributions to NATO and the US leader's open preference for dealing with national governments. They are by far the most outspoken intervention any senior EU figure has made about Mr Trump and are likely to dismay some European leaders who were hoping to seek a policy of rapprochement with their most important ally.
Speaking at the centre-right European People Party's (EPP) annual conference in Malta this afternoon, the EU Commission boss did not hold back in his disdain for the White House chief's eurosceptic views. He said: "Brexit isn't the end. A lot of people would like it that way, even people on another continent where the newly elected US President was happy that the Brexit was taking place and has asked other countries to do the same. "If he goes on like that I am going to promote the independence of Ohio and Austin, Texas in the US." Mr Juncker's comments did not appear to be made in jest and were delivered in a serious tone, although one journalist did report some "chuckles" in the audience and hinted the EU boss may have been joking. The remarks came in the middle of an angry speech in which the top eurocrat railed widely against critics of the EU Commission.
[..] Mr Juncker did not criticise Britain at all during his speech, and only made reference to Brexit in relation to Mr Trump and the opportunities it presents for Europe to reform itself. However his conservative colleague Antonio Tajani, the EU Parliament president, received a rapturous ovation as he launched an impassioned defence of Europe's "Christian values". In a series of thinly veiled comments about immigration, a major political issue in his homeland and Malta, the Italian official said Europe should do more to defend its historic identity. He said: "We shouldn't be ashamed of saying we're Christian. We're Christian, it is our history. "If we leave our identity we will have in Europe all identities but not European identities. For this we need to strengthen our identity."
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In 1992, Wynne Godley predicted that the Euro would amplify any future economic downturn into a crisis: " If a country or region has no power to devalue, and if it is not the beneficiary of a system of fiscal equalisation, then there is nothing to stop it suffering a process of cumulative and terminal decline leading, in the end, to emigration as the only alternative to poverty or starvation…"
It's inconvenient with the threat of elections and Beppe Grillo surging in the polls. And even without Beppe Italy is a huge threat to the EU economy.
[..] an article published in the financial section of Italian daily Il Sole lays out just how serious the situation has become. According to new research by Italian investment bank Mediobanca, 114 of the close to 500 banks in Italy have "Texas Ratios" of over 100%. The Texas Ratio, or TR, is calculated by dividing the total value of a bank's non-performing loans by its tangible book value plus reserves – or as American money manager Steve Eisman put it, "all the bad stuff divided by the money you have to pay for all the bad stuff." If the TR is over 100%, the bank doesn't have enough money "pay for all the bad stuff." Hence, banks tend to fail when the ratio surpasses 100%. In Italy there are 114 of them. Of them, 24 have ratios of over 200%.
Granted, many of the banks in question are small local or regional savings banks with tens or hundreds of millions of euros in assets. These are not systemically important institutions and can be resolved without causing disturbances to the broader system. But the list also includes many of Italy's biggest banks which certainly are systemically important to Italy, some of which have Texas Ratios of over 200%. Top of the list, predictably, is Monte dei Paschi di Siena, with €169 billion in assets and a TR of 269%. Next up is Veneto Banca, with €33 billion in assets and a TR of 239%. This is the bank that, together with Banco Popolare di Vicenza (assets: €39 billion, TR: 210%), was supposed to have been saved last year by an intervention from government-sponsored, privately funded bank bailout fund Atlante, but which now urgently requires more public funds. Their combined assets place them seventh on the list of Italy's largest banks.
Some experts, including the U.S. bank hired last year to save MPS, JP Morgan Chase, have warned that Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca will not be eligible for a bailout since they are not regarded as systemically important enough. This prompted investors to remove funds from the banks, further exacerbating their financial woes. According to sources in Rome, the two banks' failure would send shock waves through the wider Italian financial industry. [..] almost all of Italy's largest banking groups, with the exception of Unicredit, Intesa Sao Paolo and Mediobanca itself, have Texas Ratios well in excess of 100%. But, as Eisman recently pointed out, the two largest banks, Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo, have TRs of over 90%. As long as the other banks continue to languish in their current zombified state, they will continue to drag down the two bigger banks. And if either Unicredit or Intesa begin to wobble, the bets are off.
"Land-based species are moving polewards by an average of 17km per decade, and marine species by 72km per decade.."
Rising temperatures on land and sea are increasingly forcing species to migrate to cooler climes, pushing disease-carrying insects into new areas, moving the pests that attack crops and shifting the pollinators that fertilise many of them, an international team of scientists has said. They warn that some movements will damage important industries, such as forestry and tourism, and that tensions are emerging between nations over shifting natural resources, such as fish stocks. The mass migration of species now underway around the planet can also amplify climate change as, for example, darker vegetation grows to replace sun-reflecting snow fields in the Arctic. "Human survival, for urban and rural communities, depends on other life on Earth," the experts write in their analysis published in the journal Science. "Climate change is impelling a universal redistribution of life on Earth."
This mass movement of species is the biggest for about 25,000 years, the peak of the last ice age, say the scientists, who represent more than 40 institutions around the world. [..] "Land-based species are moving polewards by an average of 17km per decade, and marine species by 72km per decade" said Prof Gretta Pecl at the University of Tasmania in Australia, who led the new analysis. There are many documented examples of individual species migrating in response to global warming and some examples of extinctions. But Pecl said: "Our study demonstrates how these changes are affecting ecosystems, human health and culture in the process." The most direct impact on humans is the movement of insects that carry diseases, such as the mosquitoes that transmit malaria shifting to new areas as they warm and where people may have little immunity.
Another example is the northward spread in Europe and North America of the animal ticks that spread Lyme disease: the UK has seen a tenfold rise in cases since 2001 as winters become milder. Food production is also being affected as crops have to be moved to cooler areas to survive, such as coffee, which will need to be grown at higher, cooler altitudes, causing deep disruption to a global industry. The pests of crops will also move, as will their natural predators, such as insects, birds, frogs and mammals. Other resources are being affected, with a third of the land used for forestry in Europe set to become unuseable for valuable timber trees in the coming decades. Important fish stocks are migrating towards the poles in search of cooler waters, with the mackerel caught in Iceland jumping from 1,700 tonnes in 2006 to 120,000 tonnes in 2010…
Another 'species' on the move.
The number of refugees who have fled Syria for neighbouring countries has topped five million people for the first time since the civil war began six years ago, according to the UN's refugee agency. Half of Syria's 22 million population has been uprooted by a conflict that has now lasted longer than the second world war, the figures released by the UNHCR show, with 6.3 million people who are still inside the country's borders forced from their homes. The figure of five million refugees "fails to account for the 1.2 million people seeking safety in Europe", the International Rescue Committee, an aid organisation, noted. Nearly 270,000 of these applied for asylum in Germany last year. The UN agency urged Europeans not to "put humanity on a ballot" in elections in France and Germany this year, where far-right candidates opposed to refugee arrivals could make gains.
A surge in violence in Aleppo, as government forces backed by Russian airstrikes retook Syria's second city at the end of 2016, resulted in 47,000 people fleeing to neighbouring Turkey, it said. Camps for internally displaced people close to the Turkish border also hold those who have fled the fighting in northern Syria. The latest arrivals into Turkey mean the number of Syrians who have fled the country for neighbouring states stands at more than five million, four years after the UNHCR announced that one million people had fled. The five million figure includes refugees who have been resettled in Europe, but the UN high commissioner for refugees urged Europeans to do more to help share a burden that is still largely falling on countries bordering Syria, such as Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, with more in Iraq and Egypt.
Turkey alone has nearly three million Syrians, the UNHCR pointed out. In Jordan, 657,000 Syrian refugees are registered with the UN, but the government says the true figure is 1.3 million. Tens of thousands of Syrians live in two large camps, Zaatari and Azraq, but the majority live in homes and flats, able to access the job market but competing for scarce employment.
March 30, 2017 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:05 am Finance Tagged with: ban, bubble, deep subprime, EU, margin debt, oil, refugees, retail, single payer, Trump 1 Response »
Carole Lombard 1926
• Fed's Williams Says Bank Lending Slowdown Doesn't Worry Him Yet (YF)
• Retailing in America: Game Theory in Reverse (DiMartinoBooth)
• 'Deep Subprime' Auto Loans Are Surging (BBG)
• Margin Debt Hit All-Time High in February (WSJ)
• US Oil Export Surge Steals More OPEC Share (CNBC)
• Australia World's Worst Money Laundering Property Market (TI)
• Sydney, Melbourne House Price Gains Accelerate (AFR)
• Auckland Housing Market Losing All Capital Gains Of The Last 12 Months (INZ)
• House Panel Passes Bill To Audit The Fed (MW)
• Hawaii Judge Places Indefinite Hold On Trump Travel Ban (BBC)
• Paul Ryan Opposes Trump Working With Democrats On Healthcare (R.)
• Democrats Against Single Payer (Jacobin)
• American Empire Crumbling (Quinn)
• The EU Cannot Survive If It Sticks To Business As Usual (Varoufakis)
• Capitalism Inevitably Creates A 'Sad' Unfair World – Physicist (Ind.)
• 'That Was Some Weird Shit' (NYMag)
• 146 Feared Dead In Mediterranean, Boy The Sole Survivor (R.)
Today's main theme just has to be W's 'That Was Some Weird Shit'. Here's the graph to go with it.
A recent slowdown in bank lending has some observers concerned that the post-election pops in optimism are sending a false signal about the strength of the U.S. economy. To San Francisco Fed president John Williams, however, this decline is out of step with everything else credit markets are saying about the economy. "The big picture is: I don't see any signs of a slowing either on the demand side or on the credit supply side," Williams told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. "Overall, the other indicators, everything we see, [says] economic conditions are good," Williams added. "Confidence is good, and we're not seeing any signs of bank lending standards changing fundamentally. So it's hard to see anything, from my viewpoint, that [says] credit is less available."
In recent months, the growth rate of commercial and industrial loans, as tracked by the Federal Reserve's weekly H.8 report on assets and liability of U.S. banks, has been on the decline. This is viewed by many as a negative development in an economy where lending and borrowing activity serve as proxies for the economy's overall health. But Williams also cautioned that lending data can reveal economic developments on a lag. For example, he noted to Yahoo Finance that in 2008 bank lending increased, which contradicted the notion that the financial markets were seizing up. Indeed, companies were unable to borrow by tapping the bond markets. However, the lending did increase because companies drew from existing lines of credit.
Right now, Williams noted that one story behind the drop in C&I loan growth going around is that oil and gas companies last year drew on lines of credit, boosting loan growth at the time. And thus the current decline in lending, which appears out of step with broader economic conditions, is occurring largely because of difficult year-over-year comparisons.
Retail demise exposes banks.
On March 21st, Sears Holding Corporation submitted a filing with its regulators that it has "substantial doubt" it can continue as a "going concern." Don't recall companies being charged with making their own death throes' announcements from your Accounting coursework? You are correct. Meet the new and improved U.S. accounting rules that have just come into effect for public companies reporting annual periods that ended after December 15, 2016, Sears included. The change shifted the onus to disclose from a given company's auditors to its management. It was telling that the Sears news fell on the very same day discount retailer Payless announced it could soon file for bankruptcy protection. That same day, the less ubiquitous Bebe female fashion chain said it too was 'exploring strategic options,' typically code for that same ill-fated Chapter in the court system.
[..] At the opposite end of the denial spectrum sits Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who is and has been publicly worried about an entirely different sort of challenge facing the real estate market. It's no secret that apartment prices are soaring. Over the past year, prices have risen 11%, leading the broad market. While that increase may seem benign in and of itself, consider how the sector has fared over the course of the recovery: prices have recouped an eye-watering 240% of their peak-to-trough losses. In sharp contrast, retail has performed the worst; it's only recovered 96% of its losses. Rosengren is rightly worried that the "sharp" increase in apartment prices could catalyze financial instability. He went on to say that, "Because real estate holdings are widespread, and the monetary and macro-prudential tools for handling valuation concerns are somewhat limited, I believe we must acknowledge that the commercial real estate sector has the potential to amplify whatever problems may emerge when we at some point face an economic downturn."
If you would indulge a translation: The bubble in commercial real estate (CRE) could trigger systemic risk, which of course, no central bank can contain. The 'macro-prudential' tools to which Rosengren refers include rules and caps on banks' exposure to CRE. Odds are, however, that the horse has already fled the barn. Over the past five years, CRE lending has been running at roughly double economic growth, a dangerous dynamic. The result: banks' exposure to CRE has reached record levels. Last year alone, bank holdings of CRE and multifamily mortgages rose nine and 12%, respectively. More worrisome yet is that the most concentrated cohort – those with more than 300% of their risk-based capital at risk – is banks with less than $50 billion in assets; most have assets south of $10 billion. How exactly will small banks confront a systemic risk conflagration? That pesky potential presumably is what's robbing Rosengren of sleep at night. He might just remember that small German lenders called Landesbanks were where subprime bombs detonated unexpectedly way back when.
Anyone who can fog a mirror is back
About a third of the risky car loans that are bundled into bonds are considered "deep subprime," a level that has surged since 2010 and is translating to higher delinquencies on the loans, according to Morgan Stanley. Consumers are falling behind on most subprime car loans, but deep subprime borrowers have deteriorated fastest, the analysts said. Sixty-day delinquencies for bonds backed by these loans have risen 3 percentage points since 2012, compared with just 0.89 percentage points on all other subprime auto securities, Morgan Stanley's Vishwanath Tirupattur, James Egan and Jeen Ng said in a report dated March 24. "The securitization market has become more heavily weighted towards issuers that we would consider deep subprime," the strategists wrote. "Auto loan fundamental performance, especially within ABS pools, continues to deteriorate."
The percentage of subprime auto-loan securitizations considered deep subprime has risen to 32.5% from 5.1% since 2010, Morgan Stanley said. The researchers define deep subprime as lenders with consumer credit grades known as FICO scores below 550. The scale from Fair Isaac Corp. ranges from 300 to 850 and while there's no firm definition of subprime, borrower scores below 600 are in general considered high credit risks. As Wall Street banks have found it tougher to profit under new regulatory regimes born out of the last subprime crisis, they've become more willing to underwrite riskier auto-loan asset-backed security sales. Investors, starved for returns with about $8 trillion of debt globally carrying negative yields, have in turn proven to be insatiable, further facilitating higher levels of risk in the market for the securities.
The casino's open for business.
Margin debt climbed to a record high in February, a fresh sign of bullishness for flummoxed investors trying to navigate the political and economic crosscurrents driving markets. The amount investors borrowed against their brokerage accounts climbed to $528.2 billion in February, according to the most recent data available from the New York Stock Exchange, released Wednesday. That is up 2.9% from $513.3 billion in January, which had been the first margin debt record in nearly two years. With margin debt, investors pledge securities, typically stocks or bonds, to obtain a loan from their brokerage firms. The money doesn't have to be used to buy more investments, though it often is. The gauge tends to climb—and pull back—along with broader stock market gauges, which have been rising to fresh records in the wake of November's presidential election.
Rising levels of margin debt are generally considered to be a measure of investor confidence. Investors are more willing to take out debt against investments when shares are rising and they have more value in their portfolios to borrow against. But experts say a steep rise can indicate that investors are losing sight of market risks and betting that stocks can only go up. Margin debt has a history of peaking right before financial collapses like the ones in 2000 and 2008. When stocks move lower, investors who are buying with borrowed money often must pull out of the market, exacerbating the decline. Before January, the previous record high for margin debt was $505 billion in the spring of 2015. Margin debt then started falling, months ahead of a summer swoon that sent major indexes down more than 10%.
As demand falls.
As OPEC tries to keep oil off the world market, U.S. oil producers are pouring more onto it. The U.S. last week sent more than 1 million barrels a day of crude out of the country, the third biggest export week ever, and double the average amount exported in 2016. It is also the third time this year that U.S. exports exceeded a million barrels a day, an industry record. "It should be somewhat supportive of [U.S. oil prices] in the short run, particularly if the exports keep up. But it obviously is a challenge for the global market and a renewed threat to OPEC and their designs of keeping prices up," said John Kilduff of Again Capital While the U.S. exported oil, it also exported fuel last week — a steadily growing business. The U.S. sold 1.1 million barrels of diesel fuel, in line with the recent average, but 608,000 barrels a day of gasoline, up from less than 400,000 barrels a day a year ago.
Analyst say the jump in exports means U.S. producers are grabbing more share at the expense of OPEC and its partners, at a time when the cartel and other producers are considering whether to extend their deal to hold 1.8 million barrels of oil off the market. But the U.S. may also be seeing the early signs of a potential rebalancing of its own supply picture, and that could ultimately help clear a logjam of domestic oil barrels. "What we're now seeing in the U.S. is refinery utilization increasing, as the maintenance season draws to a close. At the same time, there's good demand for gasoline and diesel which is helping get inventories under control. Those product inventories are less than they were this time last year," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. U.S. refineries supplied 9.5 million barrels a day of gasoline last week, up from 9.2 million the week earlier. Refinery runs increased by 425,000 barrels a day.
Transparency International reports.
The real estate market has long provided a way for individuals to secretly launder or invest stolen money and other illicitly gained funds… According to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), real estate accounted for up to 30% of criminal assets confiscated worldwide between 2011 and 2013… In many such cases, property is purchased through anonymous shell companies or trusts without undergoing proper due diligence by the professionals involved in the deal. The ease with which such anonymous companies or trusts can acquire property and launder money is directly related to the insufficient rules and enforcement practices in attractive markets… This assessment identifies the following 10 main problems that have enabled corrupt individuals and other criminals to easily purchase luxurious properties anonymously and hide their stolen money in Australia, Canada, the UK and the US:
• Inadequate coverage of anti-money laundering provision
• Identification of the beneficial owners of legal entities, trusts and other legal arrangements is still not the norm
• Foreign companies have access to the real estate market with few requirements or checks
• Over-reliance on due diligence checks by financial institutions leads to cash transactions going unnoticed
• Insufficient rules on suspicious transaction reports and weak implementation
• Weak or no checks on politically exposed persons and their associates
• Limited control over professionals who can engage in real estate transactions: no "fit and proper" test
• Limited understanding of and action on money laundering risks in the sector
• Inconsistent supervision
• Lack of sanctions
Australia has severe deficiencies under all 10 areas identified in the research and is therefore not in line with any of the commitments to tackle corruption and money laundering in real estate made in international forums. In Australia, real estate agents are not subject to the provisions of the Anti-Money Laundering and CounterTerrorism Financing Act 2006. Other professionals such as lawyers and accountants who may also play a role in the sector are not covered either. This means that properties can be bought and sold without any due diligence on the parties. Currently there are no requirements for real estate agents or any professional involved in real estate deals to submit STRs, even if they suspect illegal activity is taking place, and there are no requirements or rules for verifying whether customers are PEPs or their close associates…
In Australia, Canada and the US, the current anti-money laundering framework shows a tendency to rely on financial institutions to conduct the necessary background checks on real estate transactions… there are no checks on cash transactions. In Australia, 70% of Chinese buyers pay in cash and they represent the largest proportion of foreign purchases in the country.
How this does not scare very single person out of their socks, I can't imagine.
House price growth accelerated further in March, with gains in Sydney and Melbourne pushing higher than previous cyclical peaks, preliminary CoreLogic figures show. Data for the first 28 days of the month shows Sydney prices have risen 19% over the past year while Melbourne has posted a 16% gain, the company said on Thursday. The combined capital city average of 1.4% – the same pace of growth as February – suggests that the strengthening in the two largest cities offsets further weakness in other markets. "The early results come after a strong rebound in housing market conditions through the latter half of 2016 and into 2017," CoreLogic head of research Asia Pacific Tim Lawless said. "The strong capital gain results are further evidenced by a continuation in low stock levels, high auction clearance rates and strong investment demand."
In other data that will underpin property prices, official figures released on Thursday show Sydney's population hit five million, and Melbourne is the country's fastest-growing capital. Some caution is needed. A methodology change by CoreLogic last year exaggerated price growth in Sydney and Melbourne while also exacerbating the declines in the falling Perth market. CoreLogic has not yet revised the figures to account for the methodology and distortions will only drop out of the year-on-year comparison in June. It's clear the market is buoyant, however. Even with lenders tightening loan conditions to investor borrowers, they are increasing discounts to owner owner occupiers to protect market share, Deloitte's annual Australian mortgage report said on Thursday.
Nice bubble you got there. Wouldn't want anything to happen to it, would you?
The Auckland housing market is on the verge of having all of the capital gains it made in the last 12 months wiped out. Prices of Auckland properties have fallen so much in the last few months that median prices are within a hair's breadth of going into negative territory on an annual basis. They may already be there. In February the average price of Auckland homes sold by Harcourts, the country's largest real estate agency, was $934,428, down 1.1% compared to where it was in February last year. While Harcourts' average prices can be a bit choppy on a month by month basis, the figures do not appear to be an aberration. According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, Auckland's median selling price peaked at $868,000 in October last year and has declined every month since. In February it hit $800,000, down 7.8% from October's peak.
But just as significantly, Auckland's median price in March last year was $820,000. So even if the median price for March this year doesn't fall any further from where it was in February, or if it increases by anything less than $20,000, Auckland's median price will have declined to the point where it will be below where it was 12 months previously. Then it's goodbye capital gains. The interesting thing about those numbers is that the downward trend they show is occurring at a time when Auckland's migration-driven population growth is increasing at record levels and construction of new housing continues to fall miserably below the numbers that are required, exacerbating the region's growing housing shortage. How can this be? As you might expect, the market is being influenced by forces converging from several different directions.
One of the biggest changes to affect the Auckland market over the last few months has been the relative absence of local ethnic Chinese buyers. It would be hard to underestimate the impact they were having on Auckland's residential property market up until about the end of the third quarter of last year. They dominated some of what are often called the "big room" auctions where several dozen properties could be auctioned in a single day, and it wasn't uncommon for them to account for around 70% of sales. Often they were competing amongst themselves for properties and their bidding could be fierce. Sometimes it seemed as if the prices they were prepared to pay knew no limits. Then late last year, just as the market geared up for the summer selling season, the Chinese tide went out.
Auckland now has a significant population of Chinese people, so there will always be some who are actively buying or selling properties. But the numbers are well down on where they were a year ago. Auctions that were packed with Chinese buyers this time last year are now much quieter and Chinese faces are often more notable by their absence rather than their presence. When they are buying, they are more likely to be buying a home for themselves or perhaps their children than a pure investment property, and their bidding has been far more cautious than it was just a few months ago. Often they will bid on a property only to let it be passed in, figuring that they may not face much competition from other buyers in post-auction negotiations. With the odd exception, the days of the bidding frenzy are over.
All for it.
A House panel on Tuesday approved legislation that would let a government watchdog audit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, a move bitterly opposed by the central bank. The House Committee on oversight and government reform passed the measure by voice vote after roughly 30 minutes of debate. The bill was the brainchild of Ron Paul, the former House Republican and libertarian presidential candidate and sharp critic of the U.S. monetary policy. Versions of the bill have twice passed the House by wide margins but then stalled due to lack of support from Democrats in the Senate and the Obama administration. Analysts said the measure has a better chance to become law now that Republicans control both houses of Congress and the White House. Paul's son, Rand, the Republican senator from Kentucky, has introduced a similar measure in the Senate.
Democrats in the committee were firmly against the bill. "This bill would open the floodgates to political interference in monetary-policy making," said Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, a Democrat from the District of Columbia. Rep. Carolyn Maloney, a Democrat from New York, said the measure would lead to higher interest rates because it would undermine the market's confidence in the independence of the central bank. Republicans said the measure was needed to rein in the Fed. "It is ironic that the arsonists that caused the financial collapse are now being given credit…for putting out the fire. Almost every macroeconomist concedes in retrospect that [the Fed's] extended period of easy money led to the financial crisis," said Rep. Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky.
What good could it do to go to the Ninth Circuit Court at this point?
A US federal judge in Hawaii has indefinitely extended the suspension of President Trump's new travel ban. Judge Derrick Watson's ruling means Mr Trump will be barred from enforcing the ban on six mostly Muslim nations while it is contested in court. In a lawsuit, the US state says the ban would harm tourism and the ability to recruit foreign students and workers. President Trump says his revised travel ban seeks to prevent terrorists from entering the United States. Judge Watson made the ruling late on Wednesday after hearing arguments from attorneys for the state of Hawaii and the US Department of Justice. The judge turned his earlier temporary restraining order into a preliminary injunction that would have a more lasting effect.
President Trump's executive order on 6 March would have placed a 90-day ban on people from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen and a 120-day ban on refugees. An earlier version of the order, issued in late January, sparked confusion and protests, and was blocked by a judge in Seattle. Other courts across the US have issued different rulings on Mr Trump's revised ban, with a judge in Maryland halting a part of the ban earlier this month. Mr Trump has complained of "unprecedented judicial overreach", pledging to take the case "as far as it needs to go". An appeal against the Hawaii decision would be expected to go next to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals – the same court which in February said it would not block a ruling by a Seattle court to halt the original travel ban.
Because working together is so last century?!
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan, the top Republican in Congress, said he does not want President Donald Trump to work with Democrats on new legislation for revamping the country's health insurance system, commonly called Obamacare. In an interview with "CBS This Morning" that will air on Thursday, Ryan said he fears the Republican Party, which failed last week to come together and agree on a healthcare overhaul, is pushing the president to the other side of the aisle so he can make good on campaign promises to redo Obamacare. "I don't want that to happen," Ryan said, referring to Trump's offer to work with Democrats. Carrying out those reforms with Democrats is "hardly a conservative thing," Ryan said, according to interview excerpts released on Wednesday.
"I don't want government running health care. The government shouldn't tell you what you must do with your life, with your healthcare," he said. On Tuesday, Trump told senators attending a White House reception that he expected lawmakers to reach a deal "very quickly" on healthcare, but he did not offer specifics. "I think it's going to happen because we've all been promising – Democrat, Republican – we've all been promising that to the American people," he said. Trump said after the failure of the Republican plan last week that Democrats, none of whom supported the bill, would be willing to negotiate new healthcare legislation because Obamacare is destined to "explode."
Who's left to represent actual Americans?
Virginia Democratic senator Chuck Robb, one of the DLC's founders, warned in 1989 that "policies forged in the economic crisis of the 1930s and the social and cultural schisms of the 1960s" were irrelevant to most Americans. Two years later, Bill Clinton's issue director Bruce Reed, who doubled as policy director for the DLC, made sure to distance Clinton from single payer. The issue flared up again during the 2008 Democratic primary fight, where both Obama and Hillary Clinton tried hedging their bets. Clinton put forward a plan that was basically Obamacare while insisting that "Medicare for All" could still be on the cards under the right circumstances. Meanwhile Obama repeatedly flip-flopped, at one point telling an audience that "the Canadian model won't work in the United States" and that "we've got to develop a uniquely American approach," and nine days later hinting to a different audience that over time single payer may be on the table.
DLC leaders felt reassured however, telling the New York Times they were "pleased that none of the Democratic candidates supports a single-payer health-care system." So Democrats' attempts to quell their base's clamoring for a comprehensive, public health-care system isn't new. What is new is the open, public disparagement of such a goal — not just by Democratic leaders, but by leading liberal commentators, too. Ironically, this appears largely to have been due to the Sanders campaign — or rather, the challenge it posed to Hillary Clinton's previously wide-open road to the White House. Needing to differentiate herself from Sanders's unabashed progressivism, and to dampen popular enthusiasm for his message, Clinton began attacking his policies, despite her historic sympathy toward single payer.
Sanders's proposals were "ideas that sound good on paper but will never make it in real life," she told crowds; for good measure, she insisted that single-payer health care "will never, ever come to pass." Two years earlier, she explained her opposition to the policy on the basis that "we don't have a one size fits all; our country is quite diverse." In January 2016, she warned breathlessly that Sanders's plan would "end all the kinds of health care we know" and claimed it would "send health insurance to the states," while her daughter warned that it would "dismantle Obamacare" and "strip millions and millions and millions of people off their health insurance."
As late as October, Clinton's team was still trying to distance herself from Trump's accusation that she — heaven forbid! — "wants to go to a single-payer plan," with her spokesman directing Politifact to an earlier fact-check confirming her lack of support for the policy. (Lest we mistake this for mere expediency, we can rest assured that at least some of the Clinton camp really felt this way: campaign manager John Podesta declared in an email to ThinkProgress editor-in-chief Judd Legum that Sanders's "actual proposal sucks, but we live in a leftie alternative universe.")
Jim Quinn's series on the similarities between Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy and Strauss & Howe's Fourth Turning.
You can hear the creaking as the winds of this Fourth Turning winter howl through the branches of this dying empire. Trump may have forced the Deep State Second Foundation to reveal itself as they seek to destroy him, but the relentless decline of the American Empire continues unabated. Tinkering around the edges of a healthcare system designed to benefit mega-corporations and the Deep State will do nothing to reverse or even delay the decline. Slowing the growth of government when the national debt is already $20 trillion and headed to $30 trillion within the next decade won't cure the rot in our tree trunk. Completely ignoring the $200 trillion of unfunded welfare state liabilities helps accelerate the inevitable collapse of this empire. Cutting taxes while expanding the war making machine known as the military industrial complex does nothing to reverse what is already in motion.
In addition to the absolutely quantifiable reasons why the American Empire will collapse, there are demographic, cultural, and societal trends which will contribute dramatically to the fall. The rapidly aging populace, with 10,000 Americans per day turning 65 years old, is the driving force towards national bankruptcy, as this inexorable demographic tsunami sweeps over the fraying fabric of welfare state promises. The onslaught of illegal immigrants and purposeful execution of a plan by the effete liberal elite to weaken our common American culture through the insertion of Muslim refugees into our communities, is undermining the shared values which built the country. The immigrants who built this country assimilated, learned the language, worked hard, and adopted our common culture. The hordes invading America at this time hate our values and refuse to assimilate. This Soros funded effort to create diversity havoc throughout the world is part of the globalization one world order plan.
As Europe disintegrates under the unrelenting wave of violent refugees creating upheaval, chaos, and spreading religious zealotry through viciousness, the next target is the mighty American Empire. Fighting in the streets between the normal law abiding Trump supporters and the Soros funded, draped in black, flag burning, social justice warrior criminals has begun. Widespread societal strife is just around the corner. When the next financial crisis, created by the Deep State to further their plans, destroys the remaining wealth of the barely surviving middle class, all hell will break loose in the streets. The 86% of the country occupied by red state, gun owning, Trump supporters will openly go to war against the condescending, left wing, violence provoking blue state liberals. Blood will be spilled in copious amounts. It always does during Fourth Turnings.
It cannot survive, period.
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, had for years opposed the idea of a Europe that proceeds at different speeds – allowing some countries to be less integrated than others, due to their domestic political situation. But now – after the colossal economic mismanagement of the euro crisis has weakened the EU's legitimacy, given Eurosceptics a major impetus, and caused the EU to shift to an advanced stage of disintegration – Mrs Merkel and her fellow EU leaders seem to think that a multi-speed Europe is essential to keeping the bloc together. At the weekend, as EU leaders gathered to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, leaders of the remaining 27 member states signed the Rome Declaration, which says that they will "act together, at different paces and intensity where necessary, while moving in the same direction, as we have done in the past."
The failure to keep the EU together along a single path toward common values, a common market and a common currency will come to be embraced and rebranded as a new start, leading to a Europe in which a coalition of the willing will proceed with the original ambition while the rest form outer circles, connected to the inner core by unspecified bonds. In principle, such a manifold EU will allow for the East's self-proclaimed illiberal democracies to remain in the single market, refusing to relocate a single refugee or to adhere to standards of press freedom and judicial independence that other European countries consider essential. Countries like Austria will be able to put up electrified fences around their borders. It could even leave the door open for the UK to return as part of one of Europe's outer circles. Whether one approves of this vision or not, the fact is that its chances depend on a major prerequisite: a consolidated, stable eurozone.
One only needs to state this to recognize the second paradox of our post-Brexit reality: In its current state, the eurozone cannot provide the stability that the EU – and Europe more broadly – needs to survive. The refusal to deal rationally with the bankruptcy of the Greek state is a useful litmus test for the European establishment's capacity to stabilize the eurozone. As it stands, the prospects for a stabilized eurozone do not look good. Business as usual – the establishment's favored option – could soon produce a major Italian crisis that the eurozone cannot survive. The only alternative under discussion is a eurozone federation-light, with a tiny common budget that Berlin will agree to in exchange for direct control of French, Italian and Spanish national budgets. Even if this were to happen, which is doubtful given the political climate, it will be too little, too late to stabilize the eurozone.
"Professor Jeremy Baumberg, director of the NanoPhotonic Centres at Cambridge University, was distinctly unimpressed. "It seems to me an extremely poorly written paper, conflating many ideas in a rather unrigorous mishmash," he said."
Capitalism is inherently unfair and will produce a world full of 'sad' and disgusting inequalities, but Communism is also "doomed to fail", a leading scientist claims to have proved using the laws of physics. Professor Adrian Bejan told The Independent he was so excited by the "huge" implications of his theory that he kept having to pinch himself. A former member of the Romanian national basketball team, he is now an expert in thermodynamics and fluid mechanics at Duke University in the US, having written 30 books and more than 600 scientific papers. He now claims to have shown that physics can essentially explain economics. Inequality has been seen as a factor in the election of Donald Trump as US President and in the UK referendum vote in favour of Brexit.According to Oxfam, the richest eight men own the same wealth as the poorest 50% of the world's population.
Professor Bejan said it was possible to explain how such inequality can develop by demonstrating that wealth moves around in a society like water in a river basin using the laws of physics. In a natural environment, water flows from small tributaries into larger and larger streams. And, according to Professor Bejan's theory, the same is true of money. So, in a free market system, wealth will naturally flow from the poorest in the small tributaries to the richest in the wide rivers. Using this analogy, Communism is comparable to an attempt to restrict the flow of water to a network of equally sized concrete channels, which Professor Bejan said would inevitably be overcome by the forces of nature. But, just as humans do sometimes harness rivers to produce energy or divert them around cities, it is possible to alter the flow of money in society, he added.
And this is exactly what is being done by liberal democracies around the world with measures such as free education and healthcare, anti-trust regulations designed to prevent large corporations abusing their power, and the rule of law. "I want to see less inequality in the distribution of wealth. I get not just sad, but disgusted by it," Professor Bejan said.
Getting more popular by the day.
The inauguration of Donald Trump was a surreal experience for pretty much everyone who witnessed it, whether or not they were at the event and regardless of who they supported in the election. On the dais, the stoic presence of Hillary Clinton – whom candidate Trump had said he would send to prison if he took office – underlined the strangeness of the moment. George W. Bush, also savaged by Trump during the campaign, was there too. He gave the same reason for attending that Bill and Hillary Clinton did: to honor the peaceful transfer of power. Bush's endearing struggle with his poncho at the event quickly became a meme, prompting many Democrats on social media to admit that they already pined for the relative normalcy of his administration. Following Trump's short and dire speech, Bush departed the scene and never offered public comment on the ceremony. But, according to three people who were present, Bush gave a brief assessment of Trump's inaugural after leaving the dais: "That was some weird shit." All three heard him say it.
On and on and on.
Dozens of people are feared to have drowned after a rubber boat carrying migrants and refugees from Libya sank in the Mediterranean. The sole survivor – a 16-year-old Gambian boy – told rescuers that 146 other people were on board when the boat sank. A Spanish frigate, the Canarias, found the boy hanging on to a piece of debris in the sea on Tuesday. He was transferred to an Italian Coast Guard ship and brought to the Sicilian island of Lampedusa early on Wednesday. "He was very tired when they found him. He's resting now, so we'll have more details later," said the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) spokesman Flavio Di Giacomo in Rome, after speaking to staff in Lampedusa.
"The boy said they left Sabratha, Libya, a couple of days ago on a rubber boat with 147 sub-Saharan Africans on board, including five children and some pregnant women," Di Giacomo said. In the past two days, rescuers have picked up more than 1,100 migrants at sea and recovered one body, Italy's Coast Guard said. The Coast Guard did not comment on the latest shipwreck. So far this year nearly 600 migrants have died trying to reach Italy from North Africa, IOM estimates, after 4,600 deaths last year. Migrant arrivals to Italy are up more than 50% this year on the same period of last year. Early on Wednesday the Golfo Azzurro, a humanitarian vessel, rescued about 400 migrants – mainly from Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Gambia and Bangladesh – including 16 women and two children.


– BERLIN, GERMANY – OCTOBER 06: The Volkswagen logo stands illuminated outside a VW dealership at night on October 6, 2015 in Berlin, Germany.Volkswagen has admitted that 8 million cars and light trucks in Europe alone are affected by the software the company deliberately installed in order to manipulate diesel emissions results under testing conditions.Since news of the issue broke two weeks ago Volkswagen's share price has dropped by over 40% and the company faces investigations and fines in countries across the globe.
– Volkswagen AG ( vlkay ) and former Chief Executive Officer Martin Winterkorn must defend an investor lawsuit in California over the company's diesel emissions cheating scandal, a U.S. judge ruled on Wednesday.U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer also rejected a request by VW brand chief Herbert Diess to have the proposed securities fraud lawsuits tossed out of a California court.Other defendants include VW's U.S. unit and its Audi of America unit and the former head of its U.S. unit, Michael Horn.
– Maine Attorney General Janet Mills is filing a new lawsuit against Volkswagen and its sister companies in the ongoing aftermath of the automakers' emissions-cheating scandal.Filed in Kennebec County Superior Court, the suit alleges that starting in 2009, VW, Audi and Porsche sold diesel cars in Maine that were outfitted with software that allowed them to pass emissions tests, even though once back on the road their tailpipes belched harmful nitrogen oxides at levels far above the legal limit.Mills says some 3,500 of the doctored cars were sold in Maine, defeating Maine's emission control inspections.
– In September 2015, the Volkswagen emissions scandal came to light.The automobile company admitted that it had installed secret software dubbed "defeat devices" in 475,000 2.0-litre cars in the U.S.This software was in order to cheat the exhaust emissions tests so that it can make the cars appear cleaner in the test than they really are.


Put your arms straight out to the side so that your shoulders are at 90 degrees to your trunk as pictured below.
Keep your feet hip width apart or closer.
Your trunk should form a straight line from head to knees.
Sway out to one side so that the ball is under one shoulder blade.
Then sway back to the other shoulder.
Whole trunk, glutes, hips, quads.
Keep your back straight by engaging your transversus abdominus.
This exercise will challenge your balance more as your raise your arms overhead.
The ball will move more quickly if it is inflated more.


Has your business discussed the referendum?
The effects of the UK leaving the EU could be disastrous, especially for business. That's why we want to know if the board of your business has discussed the pros and cons of EU membership? If you have, then please let us know.
Why is the EU so good for buisness?
Being part of Europe makes our economy stronger, helping British businesses small and large, creating jobs for British people, and delivering lower prices for British families.
Half of everything we sell to the rest of the world we sell to Europe - and we get an average of £26.5 billion of investment into Britain per year from Europe.
That's why the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) estimates that 3 million jobs in Britain are linked to trade with the rest of Europe.
Being part of Europe also means cheaper prices in our supermarkets, cheaper flights to Europe and lower phone charges when traveling.
The average person in Britain saves around £450 every year because trading with Europe drives down the price of goods and services.
And we get out more than we put in. Our annual contribution is equivalent to £340 for each household and yet the CBI says that all the trade, investment, jobs and lower prices that come from our economic partnership with Europe is worth £3000 per year to every household.
That's a return on investment of almost ten to one. British families are better off being in Europe.
Negotiating as part of a 500 million-strong economy also gives us clout we could never have on our own. Thanks to our membership of the European Union, we benefit from free trade agreements with 50 countries around the world.
So why would we risk our economic security by turning our backs on Europe? There will be no going back if we vote to leave. And if we do leave, we will be cut off from automatic access to the economic benefits that the EU brings – hitting businesses, risking jobs and threatening families' financial security.


As my pregnancies have come to their ends, each time I reached a point where it felt like life couldn't move forward appreciably until the little one made her appearance. The feeling gives a strange flavor to life--it's exciting and boring at the same time. You wind up slowing down and just hanging out in the day you've got. Also, you monitor and attempt to analyze every.single.physical.sensation to figure out if it might be the start of labor. For a very long time, it's not. Here are some of the things we filled our days with while we were waiting for Susanna . . .
and then, finally, later the same evening this last photo was taken, she came!!


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Q: Are all ordinal attribute types nominal? I'm currently writing a .NET library to handle various statistical/classification tasks and I am currently writing the structures to represent nominal and ordinal data.
In doing so, I've been debating whether or not the structures that handle ordinal data should derive from the structures that handle nominal data.
My thought is that yes, all ordinal data is nominal data; even though it means huge (or infinite) sets, each of them is an attribute that while being able to compared to another attribute for rank (for lack of a better term, which implies ordinal) can still be compared to for equality and is still a label (nominal).

A: I would definitely make the distinction between discrete ordinal variables and continuous ordinal variables. For the second case, in practice there never is any sense in comparing values for equality.
I don't see a sound reason to state that continuous ordinal variables are in fact nominal: what would be the gain?

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Phugpa Lhündrub Gyatsho (tib.: phug pa lhun grub rgya mtsho; 15. Jahrhundert), häufig nur Phugpa genannt, war der bedeutendste Astronom der tibetischen Geschichte. Die von ihm im 15. Jahrhundert begründete Phugpa Schule war neben der Tshurphu-Schule eine der einflussreichsten Schulen der tibetischen Astronomie und Kalenderrechnung.

Herkunft

Phugpa Lhündrub Gyatsho gehörte einer alten Familie von Astronomen und Divinationsmeistern an. Sowohl sein Vater Āryadeva (2. Hälfte des 14. Jahrhunderts) wie auch sein Bruder Lobpön Künga Pel (tib.: slob dpon kun dga' dpal) waren große Kenner der Astronomie und der Sinotibetischen Divinationskalkulationen. Als Astronom berühmt geworden ist auch sein Neffe Pelgön Thrinle (tib.: dpal mgon 'phrin las).

Der Stammvater der unter dem Namen Phugpa bekannt gewordenen Familie war Minyag Gyeltshen (tib.: mi nyag rgyal mtshan), der zu Beginn des 14. Jahrhunderts lebte und als Meister der Sinotibetischen Divinationskalkulationen angesehen wurde. Minyag Gyeltshen hatte diese Disziplin bei dem Nag-rtsis-Meister Khyungnag Shakya Dar studiert.

Da Minyag Gyeltshen lange Zeit in einer Höhle gelebt und meditiert hatte, erhielt er den Rufnamen Phugpa ("Höhlenmensch"), den seine Nachfahren als Familienbezeichnung beibehielten.

Leben

Studium

Phugpa Lhündrub Gyatsho gehörte zu einer Gruppe von Astronomen, die unter dem Beinamen die "Drei Ozeane" (tib.: rgya mtsho rnam gsum) bekannt wurden. Zu dieser Gruppe gehörte neben ihm Khedrub Norsang Gyatsho (tib.: mkhas grub nor bzang rgya mtsho) und Drachung Yönten Gyatsho (tib.: grva chung yon tan rgya mtsho). Alle drei studierten Astronomie bei dem gleichen Lehrer, nämlich Tsangchung Chödrag Gyatsho (tib.: gtsang chung chos grags rgya mtsho).

Lebenswerk

1447 vollendete Phugpa Lhündrub Gyatsho sein wichtigstes Werk, den Pema Karpö Zhelung (tib.: padma dkar po'i zhal lung; "Unterweisung des (Königs von Shambhala) Pema Karpo"). Darin rekonstruierte er die nach der tibetischen Tradition von Buddha gelehrte und später im Kālacakratantra angeblich verfälschte wahre Astronomie und Kalendererrechnung. Damit schuf er die Grundlage für ein Rechensystem, welches für einen Großteil der tibetischen Astronomen zur Erstellung des tibetischen Kalenders, zur Berechnung der Sonnen- und Mondfinsternisse und zur Kalkulation der Bewegung der Planeten einschließlich Sonne und Mond über viele Jahrhunderte hinweg maßgeblich war.

Zur Forschungsgeschichte ist anzumerken, dass zu seinem Lebenswerk außer Blockdruckausgaben und einem Pekinger Nachdruck einer der Blockdruckausgaben weder eine textkritische Ausgabe noch eine Übersetzung vorliegt.

Literatur

 Dieter Schuh: Untersuchungen zur Geschichte der Tibetischen Kalenderrechnung (Verzeichnis der orientalischen Handschriften in Deutschland/Supplementum; Bd. 16). Verlag Steiner, Wiesbaden 1973 (zugl. Dissertation, Universität Bonn 1973).
 Dieter Schuh: Grundzüge der Entwicklung der Tibetischen Kalenderrechnung. In: Wolfgang Voigt (Hrsg.): XVIII. Deutscher Orientalistentag. Vom 1. bis 5. Oktober 1972 in Lübeck. Vorträge (Zeitschrift der Deutschen Morgenländischen Gesellschaft; Bd. 2). Verlag Steiner, Wiesbaden 1974, ISBN 3-515-01860-3, S. 554–566.
 Phug-pa Lhun-grub rgya-mtsho: Legs par bshad pa padma dkar-po'i zhal gyi lung. Beijing 2002.

Astronom des Mittelalters
Person des tibetischen Buddhismus
Geschichte (Tibet)
Tibeter
Geboren im 14. oder 15. Jahrhundert
Gestorben im 15. Jahrhundert
Mann

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Studio Challenge – Sign Up Now!
Welcome to the 2015 LHS 100 Days of Practice Challenge!
Registration is now open and will close when the Challenge begins on Friday, March 20th. Dust away the dreary winter and infuse your practice sessions with excitement, motivation, and progress!
Celebrate the milestones along the way, and join us for a party honoring your accomplishments at the conclusion of the Challenge in June. Signing up for the Challenge will give your family step-by-step support and motivation. We're in this together!
Next up, grab your own copy of the 100 Day Practice Journal and we'll get started!


text:
Q: How to call an API from UI using private IP or localhost or 127.0.0.1 as API base URL, if UI and API both are deployed in a same VM in different port? I have two dot net applications. One is UI(.net framework), another is API (.net core 2.1).Now I deployed both application on an Azure VM (IIS) on different port. UI->80 port and API->3366 port. I am calling the API from my UI application using ajax call. When I am using the public IP of that VM as API base url, then it is working as expected. But when I am using private IP or localhost or 127.0.0.1 as base URL of API, then api call is not working.
My sample ajax call is below:
$.ajax({
   cache: false,

   type: 'get',

   async: true,

   contentType: 'application/json',

   url: 'http://private-ip/api/user/getallusers',

   success: function (data) {

   }

})
My expectation:
As both applications are deployed on same VM, they should communicate with each other using private IP or localhost,insted of public IP of that VM . The agenda of using private ip or localhost is that I dont want to expose my API publicly.


text:
import argparse

def get_args():

    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(prog="py-bak",
                                     description="Simple backup tool")

    parser.add_argument("-f",
                        nargs="*",
                        help="Space delimitted list of filenames and folders to be included in backup.",
                        dest="files",
                        required=False,
                        )

    parser.add_argument("-o",
                        nargs=1,
                        help="Outout filename.",
                        dest="output_file",
                        required=False)

    parser.add_argument("-g",
                        help="Compress with gzip.",
                        action="store_const",
                        dest="use_gzip",
                        required=False,
                        const=True,
                        default=False,
                        )

    parser.add_argument("-b",
                        help="Compress with bz2.",
                        action="store_const",
                        dest="use_bz2",
                        required=False,
                        const=True,
                        default=False
                        )

    parser.add_argument("-z",
                        help="Create zip file rather than a tarball",
                        action="store_const",
                        dest="create_zip",
                        required=False,
                        const=True,
                        default=False)

    return parser.parse_args()

def main():

    args = get_args()
    if args.files is not None:
        for f in args.files:
            print(f)

    print("Using gzip: ", args.use_gzip)
    print("Using bz2: ", args.use_bz2)
    print("Creating zip: ", args.create_zip)
    print("Output file: ", args.output_file)

if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Q: MySQL select random rows with order by I want to retrieve random rows from table but this rows must be order in category.
select category,
   (select order_number
   from orders
   where order_number in (123,125,128,129,256,263,966,258,264,159,786)
   order by rand())
from orders
order by category

This is the query I tried. But that retrieves whole data in table.

Worked query ;
SELECT category,order_number FROM (
    SELECT category,order_number
    from orders
    where order_number in (`$order_numbers_variable`)
    order by rand()
) order by category

A: I assume the requirement is:
Retrieve 'N' random rows from a table sorted by 'category'.
Lets assume N is 10. If you want to change the number of rows, then change it in the LIMIT clause.
SELECT * FROM (
    SELECT category from orders ORDER BY rand() ASC  LIMIT 10
) AS innerResult
ORDER BY innerResult.category


text:
package driver

import (
	"fmt"
	"sync"
	"time"

	"golang.org/x/exp/slices"
)

const (
	counterBytesRead = iota
	counterBytesWritten
	numCounter
)

const (
	gaugeConn = iota
	gaugeTx
	gaugeStmt
	numGauge
)

const (
	timeRead = iota
	timeWrite
	timeAuth
	numTime
)

const (
	sqlTimeQuery = iota
	sqlTimePrepare
	sqlTimeExec
	sqlTimeCall
	sqlTimeFetch
	sqlTimeFetchLob
	sqlTimeRollback
	sqlTimeCommit
	numSQLTime
)

type histogram struct {
	count          uint64
	sum            float64
	upperBounds    []float64
	boundCounts    []uint64
	underflowCount uint64 // in case of negative duration (will add to zero bucket)
}

func newHistogram(upperBounds []float64) *histogram {
	return &histogram{upperBounds: upperBounds, boundCounts: make([]uint64, len(upperBounds))}
}

func (h *histogram) stats() *StatsHistogram {
	rv := &StatsHistogram{
		Count:   h.count,
		Sum:     h.sum,
		Buckets: make(map[float64]uint64, len(h.upperBounds)),
	}
	for i, upperBound := range h.upperBounds {
		rv.Buckets[upperBound] = h.boundCounts[i]
	}
	return rv
}

func (h *histogram) add(v float64) { // time in nanoseconds
	h.count++
	if v < 0 {
		h.underflowCount++
		v = 0
	}
	h.sum += v
	// determine index
	idx, _ := slices.BinarySearch(h.upperBounds, v)
	for i := idx; i < len(h.upperBounds); i++ {
		h.boundCounts[i]++
	}
}

type counterMsg struct {
	v   uint64
	idx int
}

type gaugeMsg struct {
	v   int64
	idx int
}

type timeMsg struct {
	d   time.Duration
	idx int
}

type sqlTimeMsg struct {
	d   time.Duration
	idx int
}

type metrics struct {
	parent *metrics

	counters []uint64
	gauges   []int64
	times    []*histogram
	sqlTimes []*histogram

	wg    *sync.WaitGroup
	chMsg chan any

	closed atomicBool
}

const (
	numCh = 100000
)

func newMetrics(parent *metrics, timeUpperBounds []float64) *metrics {
	rv := &metrics{
		parent:   parent,
		counters: make([]uint64, numCounter),
		gauges:   make([]int64, numGauge),
		times:    make([]*histogram, numTime),
		sqlTimes: make([]*histogram, numSQLTime),

		wg:    new(sync.WaitGroup),
		chMsg: make(chan any, numCh),
	}
	for i := 0; i < int(numTime); i++ {
		rv.times[i] = newHistogram(timeUpperBounds)
	}
	for i := 0; i < int(numSQLTime); i++ {
		rv.sqlTimes[i] = newHistogram(timeUpperBounds)
	}
	rv.wg.Add(1)
	if parent == nil {
		go rv.collect(rv.wg, rv.chMsg, rv.handleMsg)
	} else {
		go rv.collect(rv.wg, rv.chMsg, rv.handleParentMsg)
	}
	return rv
}

func (m *metrics) buildStats() *Stats {
	sqlTimes := make(map[string]*StatsHistogram, len(m.sqlTimes))
	for i, sqlTime := range m.sqlTimes {
		sqlTimes[statsCfg.SQLTimeTexts[i]] = sqlTime.stats()
	}
	return &Stats{
		OpenConnections:  int(m.gauges[gaugeConn]),
		OpenTransactions: int(m.gauges[gaugeTx]),
		OpenStatements:   int(m.gauges[gaugeStmt]),
		ReadBytes:        m.counters[counterBytesRead],
		WrittenBytes:     m.counters[counterBytesWritten],
		ReadTime:         m.times[timeRead].stats(),
		WriteTime:        m.times[timeWrite].stats(),
		AuthTime:         m.times[timeAuth].stats(),
		SQLTimes:         sqlTimes,
	}
}

func milliseconds(d time.Duration) float64 { return float64(d.Nanoseconds()) / 1e6 }

func (m *metrics) handleMsg(msg any) {
	switch msg := msg.(type) {
	case counterMsg:
		m.counters[msg.idx] += msg.v
	case gaugeMsg:
		m.gauges[msg.idx] += msg.v
	case timeMsg:
		m.times[msg.idx].add(milliseconds(msg.d))
	case sqlTimeMsg:
		m.sqlTimes[msg.idx].add(milliseconds(msg.d))
	case chan *Stats:
		msg <- m.buildStats()
	default:
		panic(fmt.Sprintf("invalid metric message type %T", msg))
	}
}

func (m *metrics) handleParentMsg(msg any) {
	switch msg := msg.(type) {
	case counterMsg:
		m.parent.chMsg <- msg
		m.counters[msg.idx] += msg.v
	case gaugeMsg:
		m.parent.chMsg <- msg
		m.gauges[msg.idx] += msg.v
	case timeMsg:
		m.parent.chMsg <- msg
		m.times[msg.idx].add(milliseconds(msg.d))
	case sqlTimeMsg:
		m.parent.chMsg <- msg
		m.sqlTimes[msg.idx].add(milliseconds(msg.d))
	case chan *Stats:
		msg <- m.buildStats()
	default:
		panic(fmt.Sprintf("invalid metric message type %T", msg))
	}
}

func (m *metrics) collect(wg *sync.WaitGroup, chMsg <-chan any, msgHandler func(msg any)) {
	for msg := range chMsg {
		msgHandler(msg)
	}
	wg.Done()
}

func (m *metrics) stats() *Stats {
	if m.closed.Load() { // if closed return stas directly as we do not have write conflicts anymore
		return m.stats()
	}
	chStats := make(chan *Stats)
	m.chMsg <- chStats
	return <-chStats
}

func (m *metrics) close() {
	m.closed.Store(true)
	close(m.chMsg)
	m.wg.Wait()
}


text:
Destigmatizing Grooming Ads
Personal grooming is always an embarrassing conversation, but Manscapped's ads don't think it has to be. In a newly launched campaign, the men's grooming brand displayed 225 out-of-home ads that are both playful and relatable in an effort to remove the stigma that surrounds the below-the-waist shaving conversation. The bold ads boast tag lines such as "When you trim the hedges, the tree stands taller" and "Precision tools for your family jewels." According to Marcelo Kertész, svp of content, brand and design "Each visual offers a combined sense of spontaneity and confidence that comes from being ready for anything," he said. "We are excited to have landed on a set of powerful images that convey this notion in a single frame."Image Credit: Manscaped
Skin-Nourishing Canine Shampoos

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Carrie Connor, born at Nyack Hospital on June 29, 1982, to Linda Banks and Damon Connor, passed away at age 35 on June 22, 2018 in Nyack, NY. Carrie was the youngest of four siblings. She is survived by her brothers, Daniel, Brian, and Damon. Carrie was a longtime, dedicated employee of Empire CLS. Her passion and loyalty was apparent in all aspects of her life. Carrie loved speed skating, traveling, and enjoying live music. She was a positive influence and a shining light. She made people smile, and her kind soul will stay with those she loved for the rest of time. In lieu of flowers, the family respectfully asks for donations through the following Go Fund Me Link: gf.me/u/jpqd7j. Please join in a celebration of Carrie's life on Tuesday, July 10 from 4:00 to 8:00 p.m. at the American Legion, 20 Station Road, Pomona, New York, 10970.


text:
Irsko je ostrov v Atlantském oceánu na severozápadě Evropy. Je rozlohou 84 412 km² druhým největším z Britských ostrovů a po Velké Británii a Islandu třetím největším ostrovem Evropy. Má zhruba 5,7 milionu obyvatel. Větší část ostrova (pět šestin) zaujímá Irská republika, zbylá šestina je coby Severní Irsko součástí Spojeného království Velké Británie a Severního Irska.

Irsku se také říká Smaragdový či Zelený ostrov. Latinské pojmenování pro Irsko je Hibernia.

Geografie
Povrch Irska je převážně nížinatý, zejména pak v centrálních oblastech. Hornatiny se vyskytují v blízkosti pobřeží. Nejvyšším vrcholem je Carrauntoohill (1041 m, irsky Carrán Tuathail) v pohoří Macgillycuddy's Reeks. Mezi další významná pohoří patří: Wicklow Mountains na východě a Antrim Plateau v Severním Irsku.

V Irsku se též vyskytují četné útesy – nejznámější Moherské útesy () či nejvyšší Slieve League a Croaghaun.

Nejdelší řekou nejen Irska, ale i Britských ostrovů je 386 km dlouhá řeka Shannon. Na jejím toku jsou tři velká jezera (po proudu): Lough Allen, Lough Ree a Lough Derg. Největším jezerem ostrova je Lough Neagh v Severním Irsku. Ostrov si vysloužil přezdívku "Smaragdový ostrov" díky bujné vegetaci, která je zde díky mírnému klimatu a častému jemnému dešti. Rozloha ostrova je 84 412 km2.

Irsko se rozděluje do čtyř provincií: Connacht, Leinster, Munster a Ulster, dříve též existovala provincie Meath. Dále se dělily na 32 hrabství pro administrativní potřeby Britské správy v 19. století. Šest hrabství Ulsteru zůstává pod britskou správou díky referendu z roku 1973. Zbylých 26 hrabství nyní tvoří Irskou republiku.

Nejhůře obdělávatelná půda leží v jihozápadních a západních krajích. Tyto části jsou velmi hornaté, s nádherným výhledem.

Dějiny

Historické členění

Z historického hlediska se Irsko dělí na čtyři provincie: Munster (jih Irska – patří sem hrabství Cork, Kerry, Waterford, Tipperary, Limerick a Clare), Leinster (středovýchod ostrova – hrabství Wexford, Kilkenny, Carlow, Laois (Leix), Offaly, Westmeath, Longford, Meath, Louth, Kildare, Wicklow a Dublin), Connacht (neboli Connaught – středozápad ostrova – hrabství Galway, Roscommon, Mayo, Sligo a Leitrim) a Ulster (sever ostrova – hrabství Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Londonderry (Derry), Antrim, Armagh a Down). Dříve se někdy uváděla ještě pátá provincie Meath (tzv. Střední království), pod kterou spadala celá hrabství Meath a Westmeath a dále části hrabství Dublin, Cavan, Kildare, Longford, Louth a Offaly, dnes už však uvažujeme pouze čtyři výše zmíněné provincie.

K irské republice patří celý Munster, Leinster a Connaught a tři hrabství Ulsteru (Donegal, Monaghan a Cavan), zbývajících šest hrabství tvoří Severní Irsko, které je Iry často zváno jako "six counties".

Galerie

Externí odkazy

Mezinárodní ostrovy
Ostrovy Britských ostrovů
Ostrovy Irska
Ostrovy Irského moře
Ostrovy Keltského moře
Ostrovy Spojeného království v Evropě
Ostrovy Spojeného království v Atlantském oceánu


As a medical journalist, from 1996 to 2001, Dr. Larimore hosted over 850 episodes of the daily, live Ask the Family Doctor show on Fox's Health Network, being awarded the prestigious "Gracie" Award by the American Women in Radio and Television. From 2002 to 2004, Dr. Larimore hosted the Focus on Your Family's Health's syndicated radio and TV features.
Dr. Larimore's most recent health book is 10 Essentials of Happy, Healthy People, an undated and revised version of his award winning book 10 Essentials of Highly Healthy People. In 2009 he co-wrote his first novel, Time Scene Investigators: The Gabon Virus, with Paul McCusker. The sequel, Time Scene Investigators: The Influenza Bomb was released in 2010.
"Dr. Walt Larimore is an energetic, enthusiastic and inspiring speaker. He delivered one of the best speeches ever. We want him back."


text:
Foreningen af Danske Transportcentre (FDT) er en brancheforening for transportcentre i Danmark. Foreningen blev stiftet i 1991 og tæller i dag 7 centre på Jylland og Sjælland, alle beliggende nær motorveje. Foreningen arbejder primært for at udbygge brugen af transportcentre i Europa.

Medlemmer
GateWay E45 (DTC)
Høje-Tåstrup Transportcenter (HTT)
Nordjysk Transportcenter (NTC)
Herning-Ikast Transportcenter (HITC)
Transportcenter Stop 39 (TCS)
Skandinavisk Transport Center (STC)
Taulov Transport Center (TTC)

Eksterne henvisninger
Officiel hjemmeside

Foreninger fra Danmark
Transport i Danmark
Etableret i 1991


text:
U.S willing to open new doors of Visa services in Lahore
Diplomatic NewsLatest NewsSpecial Reports
Lahore plans to render new services for the citizens of Lahore,says a US consol General Catherine Rodriguez to a state
Lahore, 28 January 2020 (GNP) : The US consulate in Lahore plans to render new services for the citizens of Lahore,says a US consol General Catherine Rodriguez to a state run APP.She said, "It is only possible if the Lahore consulate is moved in a new building as the current building housing the U.S. consulate was built in 1933 and is too cramped to start new services," more than 25000 people from Punjab travel to Islamabad or Karachi for their Visa process.
During her interview she stated that youth development and women empowerment were her key priorities as 50 percent of the population of Pakistan consist of women.Women must have faith in themselves and do their best to challenge barriers fearlessly," she said.
The Consol General herself hold a master degree in environmental science and policy and intends to resolve the environmental issues in the capital of Punjab.She further reiterated that US had already allocated $2million for the preservation of the Punjab heritage.
On education she said that US had been supporting Pakistani students for a long time and in future it would support the students through myriad scholarships and research grants. (GNP)
Lahoreservices for the citizensU.SU.S willing to open new doors of Visa services
Times Comes! Israel Palestine Plan unveil
Foreign Office Responds to Afghan President Tweets


text:
What's the meaning of the White Queen »
White Queen
This page is about the meaning, origin and characteristic of the symbol, emblem, seal, sign, logo or flag: White Queen.
Aviv Ben Efraim
Rate this symbol:(3.00 / 4 votes)
The queen (♕,♛) is the strongest piece in the game of chess, able to move any number of squares vertically, horizontally or diagonally. Each player starts the game with one queen, placed in the middle of the first rank next to the king. Because of the value of a queen, it is sometimes used as bait to lure an opponent into a trap by a queen sacrifice. Another tactic is to use the queen to threaten the opponent's queen, to either retreat or to exchange the queen (losing both of them) to reduce the game to less strong pieces. The queen is often used in conjunction with another piece, such as teamed with a bishop or rook, where the pieces could guard each other while threatening the opponent pieces.
With the chessboard oriented correctly, the white queen starts on a white square and the black queen starts on a black square. (Thus the mnemonics "queen gets her color", "queen on [her] [own] color", or "the dress [queen piece] matches the shoes [square]" (Latin: "servat regina colorem").) In algebraic notation, the white queen starts on d1, while the black queen starts on d8. Because the queen is the strongest piece, a pawn is promoted to a queen in the vast majority of the cases.
In the game shatranj, the ancestor of chess included only male figures, the closest thing to the queen being the "vizier", a weak piece only able to move or capture one step diagonally and not at all in any other direction. The modern chess queen gained power in the 15th century in concert with traditions of queenly rule in Europe. Examples of this power shift would be the "end of chivalry" by which Queen Elizabeth I ended the tradition that any knight could create another and made it exclusively the preserve of the monarch.
The piece is archaically known as the minister. In Polish it is known as the Hetman – the name of a major historical military-political office. In Russian it is known as "ferz'" (ферзь). The Arabic name of the piece is Wazïr, the same as in shatranj.
Graphical characteristics:
Symmetric, Closed shape, Monochrome, Contains both straight and curved lines, Has no crossing lines.
Category: Miscellaneous.
White Queen is part of the Chess pieces group.
Edit this symbol
More symbols in Chess pieces:
A chess piece, or chessman, is any of the 32 movable objects deployed on a chessboard used to play the game of chess. read more »
Black Bishop
Black King
Black Queen
Black Rook
Black Pawn
More symbols in Miscellaneous:
Symbols without any special category attribution but that are widely used worldwide. read more »
American Forces Radio and Televisi…
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Aida (musical)
All Ireland Blue Tartan
Have a discussion about White Queen with the community:
Use the citation below to add this symbol to your bibliography:
"White Queen." Symbols.com. STANDS4 LLC, 2023. Web. 31 Jan. 2023. <https://www.symbols.com/symbol/white-queen>.
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