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text:
Stetsenkovo () is a rural locality (a selo) in Novokalitvenskoye Rural Settlement, Rossoshansky District, Voronezh Oblast, Russia. The population was 217 as of 2010. There are 7 streets.

Geography
Stetsenkovo is located 60 km southeast of Rossosh (the district's administrative centre) by road. Ivanovka is the nearest rural locality.

References

Rural localities in Rossoshansky District

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
HomeNews Reports'Azam Khan attempted acid attack on me, I had no certainty if I would...
Updated: 2 February, 2019
'Azam Khan attempted acid attack on me, I had no certainty if I would be alive next day': Jaya Prada
She accused former Samajwadi Party head Mulayam Singh of not coming to her rescue."Mulayam Singh ji didn't even call me once," she said. She revealed that she even thought of committing suicide when her morphed pictures were being circulated.
Jaya Prada, Courtesy: indiatvnews.com
Actor turned politician Jaya Prada while speaking at the Queensline Literature Festival said that Azam Khan, MLA from Rampur, Uttar Pradesh, had once attempted acid attack on her when she was contesting elections. "Because the state I was in, contesting elections with Azam Khan, as a woman, with acid attack threats, the threat to my life… I couldn't even tell my mother if I would come back alive whenever I left from home", she said.
"Even as a sitting MP from a party, I wasn't spared. Azam Khan harassed me. He attempted an acid attack on me. I had no certainty if I would be alive the next day. I would tell mother while leaving the house that I wasn't sure if I would ever return home. I emerged out of it," she added.
Prada also clarified on his relationship with former Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh. She called him her 'Godfather'. She said that Singh was the only one who stood by her during her bad phase. "Even if I tie rakhi to him, will people stop talking? I don't care what people say," said Prada.
She accused former Samajwadi Party head Mulayam Singh of not coming to her rescue."Mulayam Singh ji didn't even call me once," she said. She revealed that she even thought of committing suicide when her morphed pictures were being circulated. "Amar Singh was on dialysis and my morphed pictures were being circulated in the region. I was crying and saying I don't want to live anymore, I want to commit suicide. I was going through that trauma and no one supported me," she recalled.
She added, "Only Amar Singh ji, who came out of his dialysis, stood next to me, supported me. What will you think of him? Godfather or someone else?".
Jaya Prada and Amar Singh had formed their own Party called Rashtriya Lok Manch after being expelled from the Samajwadi Party.
samajwadi party

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


This is a rare opportunity to acquire an attractive and well-provenanced pair of silhouettes painted on glass by Richard Jorden. The unnamed gentleman is shown wearing a frilled chemise under a buttoned coat, his wig with a Ramillies plait where the plaited tail is doubled back and tied with a ribbon bow. The elegant lady is wearing a stylish wide-brimmed hat trimmed with ribbons and with a delicate veil.
The silhouettes are reverse painted on flat glass and would have originally been backed with a second piece of glass coated with gesso. Only the lady retains the second piece of glass. On the gent it has been replaced by card as the second piece of glass was broken in two at some point. The damaged glass has though been retained within the frame. The gent has a couple of small areas of paint loss the most noticeable being to the tip of his nose! The lady appears to be in excellent condition.
The silhouettes are housed in the original pressed brass fronted frames.
Little is known about the life and career of Richard Jorden (active 1779 – circa 1785) and his brother Walter who worked in and around the Welsh borders.


text:
Pagué é um distrito de São Tomé e Príncipe, que ocupa toda a Ilha do Príncipe. Tem cerca de 7 mil habitantes e ocupa uma superfície de 142 km². A capital do distrito e localidade mais importante é Santo António.

História
A ilha foi descoberta pelos navegadores portugueses em 17 de Janeiro de 1471. A ilha foi primeiro denominada de Santo António, e só em 1502 se torna donataria com o nome de ilha do Príncipe. Em 1573 torna-se colónia da Coroa portuguesa. Em Agosto de 1598 foi ocupada pelos holandeses, com intenção de anexação a este reino, sendo liberta em Outubro do mesmo ano. Em 1753 uniu-se a São Tomé para formar a colónia de São Tomé e Príncipe.

No dia 29 de Abril de 1995 o distrito de Pagué tornou-se em região autónoma da Ilha do Príncipe, permanecendo a cidade de Santo António como sede administrativa.

Economia
A economia da Ilha do Príncipe tem-se baseado na aposta no turismo para o seu desenvolvimento, mas a recente descoberta de jazidas de petróleo nas suas águas abriu novas perspectivas para o futuro.

Histórico da população
1940 3.124 (5,2% da população nacional)
1950 4.402 (7,3% da população nacional)
1960 4.544 (7,1% da população nacional)
1970 4.593 (6,2% da população nacional)
1981 5.255 (5,4% da população nacional)
1991 5.471 (4,7% da população nacional)
2001 5.966 (4,3% da população nacional)
2012 7.344 (4,1% da população nacional)

Pessoas notáveis
Damião Vaz d'Almeida

Distritos de São Tomé e Príncipe


text:
Henry puts faith in recalled Titans trio
Tony Webeck
Wed 18 Mar 2015, 06:45 AM
They have been ostracised from the playing group for the past fortnight but Titans coach Neil Henry said he had no hesitation in rushing Greg Bird, Dave Taylor and Beau Falloon back into his starting team for Sunday's clash with Newcastle.
Having been reinstated on Tuesday as they await court proceedings to play out regarding drugs charges levelled by the Queensland Crime and Corruption Commission, the inclusion of Bird, Taylor and Falloon represent three of four changes to the Titans team hammered 40-0 by the Panthers last week.
Bird's inclusion at lock allows captain Nate Myles to return to the front row, Taylor will take his place on the right edge while Falloon will start at hooker, Kierran Moseley dropping back to the bench. The four players to miss out on a place in the 17 are Matt Srama, Lachlan Burr, Agnatius Paasi and Mark Ioane with Matthew White returning from a hamstring injury on the bench.
Since incurring their suspension Bird, Taylor and Falloon have been restricted to self-managed conditioning work and contact work amongst themselves but Henry has no doubt they will have a positive effect on the overall performance of the team.
"I'm just glad that we've got the players back," Henry said. "It's been difficult for us as a club to have them excluded and not have them available for the start of the season.
"When you're talking about players of that calibre, they're experienced players. Matt White's coming back into the team because he's coming back from a hamstring injury but the other three guys who are back in the starting team, they've been working hard behind the scenes and trying to keep their fitness levels up and do a little bit of contact work in their small group.
"We haven't had a win yet so hopefully this is the impetus for us to have a good showing in front of a parochial crowd on the weekend."
Although he welcomes them back with open arms for what is likely to be a bruising encounter against a physical Knights team, Henry was quick to point out that the inclusion of no player can make up for a completion rate of just 45 per cent as was the case last weekend.
Having trailed just 8-0 at half-time against the Panthers, the Titans continually squandered possession in the second half but Henry believes the big-game experience of his four returning players will aid in a more disciplined performance.
"Our ball control was atrocious in the second half – three completions from 11 sets and we gifted field position and possession to the Panthers and we paid the price with six second half tries," he said.
"We've got a bit of work to do, there's no doubt about that but I'm hopeful that there's more experience in the team, there's a bit more size and power in the team with the guys back in and hopefully that transfers into a better performance."
The other significant change is the naming of Josh Hoffman at fullback for the first time at his new club. Having experimented with rotating Hoffman and William Zillman between left centre and fullback in Round 1, Henry played Zillman at fullback for the entire 80 minutes against Penrith but hinted they are likely to revert to the ol' switcheroo.
"He's named at fullback and he'll be starting at fullback," Henry said of Hoffman. "We didn't do a rotation last week but I think we might need to get back to that so 'Zilly' will start at that left centre spot and we'll wait and see.
"They both understand what's the best fit for the team. It's not about the individual so a rotation is probably a likely scenario but I'd like to see Josh start there and play some significant time at the back this week."


In the newspapers there was far more obloquy than praise. Two men, however, stood by him from the first: Björnson, from whom he had been practically estranged ever since The League of Youth, and Georg Brandes. The latter published an article in which he declared (I quote from memory) that the play might or might not be Ibsen's greatest work, but that it was certainly his noblest deed. It was, doubtless, in acknowledgment of this article that Ibsen wrote to Brandes on January 3, 1882: "Yesterday I had the great pleasure of receiving your brilliantly clear and so warmly appreciative review of Ghosts.... All who read your article must, it seems to me, have their eyes opened to what I meant by my new book—assuming, that is, that they have any wish to see. For I cannot get rid of the impression that a very large number of the false interpretations which have appeared in the newspapers are the work of people who know better. In Norway, however, I am willing to believe that the stultification has in most cases been unintentional; and the reason is not far to seek. In that country a great many of the critics are theologians, more or less disguised; and these gentlemen are, as a rule, quite unable to write rationally about creative literature. That enfeeblement of judgment which, at least in the case of the average man, is an inevitable consequence of prolonged occupation with theological studies, betrays itself more especially in the judging of human character, human actions, and human motives. Practical business judgment, on the other hand, does not suffer so much from studies of this order. Therefore the reverend gentlemen are very often excellent members of local boards; but they are unquestionably our worst critics. This passage is interesting as showing clearly the point of view from which Ibsen conceived the character of Manders. In the next paragraph of the same letter he discusses the attitude of the so-called Liberal press"; but as the paragraph contains the germ of An Enemy of the People, it may most fittingly be quoted in the introduction to that play.


text:
SPLA trained in child protection in Yei
UNMISS
14 March 2013 - In assisting the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) end the recruitment and use of child soldiers, UNMISS concluded a two-day training on child protection for the force today in Yei, Central Equatoria State.
The activity, which drew about 60 soldiers, was part of the mission's efforts to help the SPLA meet a 31 March deadline to end the practice it signed with the UN a year ago, said UNMISS Child Protection Officer Jane Juan.
South Sudan would be delisted from countries with children among its military ranks if the SPLA met the deadline, but sanctions would follow should the timeline be exceeded, she said.
Training topics included child rights provisions in planning military orders, punitive measures for law breakers, understanding rules of conflict within army controls and establishing monitoring and reporting mechanisms.
"We know that children are our future," SAID UNMISS Central Equatoria State Coordinator Mamane Moussa. "The place of children should be in the school, not in the street, or in the army so that they can be prepared…to build this nation."
Participant and army corporal Mary Achiro said she had learned what defined a child at the training. "I have learned that any person who is 17 years and below is a child and should not be in the army."
Colonel John Bida, acting brigade commander at Mahad SPLA barrack, said the training would help his army understand their duties and better protect civilians.
He requested a separate workshop for senior officers to equip them with necessary tools to better control their forces during war, for they were often accountable when the military committed crimes against civilians.
"During the revolution," Mr. Bida said, "we took everybody as an enemy because we did not know." "But now, we know what and where our limits of operation are."
UN Mission in South Sudan
Sexual Violence in South Sudan (January 2022)
Insecurity Insight
South Sudan + 6 more
UNHCR South Sudan: Refugee Returnee Household Survey (Oct - Dec 2021)
South Sudan: UNHCR Overview of spontaneous refugee returns (as of December 2021)
South Sudan Displacement Crisis: Cross-Border Population Movement - Kapoeta Road Monitoring, Kapoeta South County, Eastern Equatoria State (September 2021)


text:
Jack. A. Langedijk
V. V. Cam
Books by V. V. Cam
ac•knowl•edg•ment
acceptance of the truth or existence of something.
the action of expressing or displaying gratitude or appreciation for something.
an author's or publisher's statement of indebtedness to others, typically one printed in a book.
Okay, great! Here is where I can make my statement of indebtedness to others. Here is where I will express and display my gratitude and appreciation for something. Here is where I will accept the truth and show the existence of something. And that something is this: without these people in my life this book could not exist.
And I really want to thank them because—Ah, I love that word because: It's a word we use multiple times daily and yet, sometimes I don't think I always see the weight of its meaning. We use because to answer almost everything. Why do I climb a mountain? Why do I write? Why do I love? There's always a 'because', isn't there? Why are you doing something? Because of this or because of that. I guess when we say because, we are really saying: That is my cause to be.
All right, so let me start with my cause to be. I want to thank:
Yvonne and Rich, because you opened the door to show me all the great things I could become. (Good Morning Starshine)
Greg, because you helped me reach somewhere I never thought I could. (We are the Champions)
Elia, because you always showed me inspiration lies in the doing. (The Impossible Dream)
Gabe, because you trusted me enough to take your life's journey as a climber and help you find purpose in telling your story to others. (Born to Run)
Linda, because you teach me so many things—things I sometimes forget and things I would never know if you were not my sister and friend. (I am Woman)
Vera, because you climbed all the mountains first so you could show us how to do it. (Do You Believe in Magic)
Jim, because you held onto my hand and didn't let me fall. (Redemption Song)
Pamela, because you let me into your world and become a part of the care you show and give your students—that world is more awesome beyond any stories ever written. (Imagine)
Linton, because you helped me create, by letting me experiment over and over again without doubt. (Man in the Mirror)
Monica, because you brought me hope that I should continue becoming. (Both Sides Now)
Sandy, because of your care to make a difference. (Beautiful World)
Peter, because you always made me feel I was living the dream. (Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For)
Brenda, because your perspective and honesty and willingness to learn raise me up. (Bridge over Troubled Waters)
Morgan, because you helped a blank screen look better. (Respect)
Shawn, because your teaching and caring inspire me to believe that teaching is such a noble profession. (How to Save a Life)
Celestine, because you always make me feel and see my worth. (In My Life)
Ashley, because you helped this story grow into a healthy tree of words. (Changes)
Willow, because of your inspired thoughts. (Calling All Angels)
Jessica, because your belief in me instills a perseverance that keeps me growing and learning. (Stand By Me)
Michel, because your creative spirit inspires me to always keep creating. (Firework)
Starr, because you helped me take a step when I didn't see the path. (Jump)
Christina, Bridget, Marilyn, Barry and Maureen, because of your openness to read something new and different. (Help)
Loraine, because your eyes helped my words smile. (Won't Get Fooled Again)
All the teachers and students who allowed me to be in their lives, because without you, I wouldn't have found this incredible purpose. (All My Life's a Circle)
And last but not least…
My parents, because you always held hands. (Spanish Eyes)
My family, because without the feeling that I belonged to something, many of the wonders that have happened in my life would never have had a chance to exist. (Que Sera, Sera – Whatever Will Be Will Be)
Candace, because watching you become teaches me constantly. (Carry On)
Virginia, because you smile and share everything with me, and because you give me more causes to be than I could ever wish for, and mostly because of you, I love who I'm becoming. (If)
To anyone who listened, because we all really need that. (Raindrops Keep Falling on My Head)
To everyone who made me feel I belonged, because that's where love begins! (Every Song I Love)
standardSeptember 13JVCBits & Pieces
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because is Jack A. Langedijk's debut novel about a caring counselor with all the answers who is sent into a tailspin after a tragic climbing accident on Mount Everest.
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text:
Cut The Check! Woman Who Was Fired For 'Heavy Periods' Settles Lawsuit With Former Employer…
Nov, 17 2017 | Written by ATLien
Remember Alicia Coleman? ?We discussed her a few months back after she was fired for allegedly leaking period juice all over the office furniture (click HERE if you missed that).
Coleman, who worked in a 911 call center at the Bobby Dodd Institute for years, filed a lawsuit earlier this year after she was terminated for having issues controlling the flow of her period.
[FLASHBACK: WTF?!? Georgia Woman Fired Over Heavy Menstrual Cycle…(VIDEO) ]
Well, her employer has finally agreed to a settlement after the ACLU got involved.
Details below…According to the AJC, the American Civil Liberties Union confirms that Coleman settled with the Bobby Dodd Institute last week after she says they fired her for experiencing heavy periods, a symptom of menopause, the ACLU said.
Coleman worked in a 911 call center at the institute for nearly a decade. Her former employer, which conicidentally works to provide employment to persons with disabilities and disadvantages, allegedly?fired her in 2016 after she unexpectedly got her menstrual cycle at work.
The period leaks happened on two occasions several months apart.?Coleman shared details of her experience on the ACLU website stating:
Before I was fired, I hadn?t been experiencing regular periods and had started to go through menopause. I had no idea my period was coming on. The first time, it leaked onto a cloth chair, I had told my employers what I was going through, but I was still written up and told I?d be fired if it happened again.
The second time, about a year later, it was just as unexpected, even though I?d tried to take precautions. I felt the leak happen and tried to run to the bathroom, but when I stood up from my desk the blood ran down my leg and onto the carpet. Before I could come back to clean it, someone had already seen the blood on the floor. It was so embarrassing.
Even though I rushed to clean the spot with bleach and disinfectant, I was sent home.
The next time I reported for work, they told me I was fired and asked for my badge. They told me I lacked high standards of cleanliness. I never heard anyone get fired for anything like that before.
When I walked out the door, I felt so numb. I was shocked and ashamed. How could this be happening? I called my daughter right away and she couldn?t believe it. This was my job, my livelihood, my joy. How was I supposed to pay my rent now?
To add injury to insult, it was the last period I ever had.
Coleman initially filed a lawsuit in January, but the Middle District of Georgia dismissed the case, ?finding that she had not adequately alleged that what happened to her was a form of sex discrimination.??
The ACLU appealed the case, with Coleman?s attorneys arguing that ?permenopause and the associated sudden-onset heavy menstruation should be protected under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act.?
For the record, "Title VII" prohibits workplace discrimination based on sex, including pregnancy, child birth and other medical-related conditions.
After a few months of negotiations, the Bobby Dodd Institute and Coleman came to an agreement and settled the case.
While the details of the settlement are confidential, I'm almost positive that Coleman has secured more than enough resources for a lifetime supply of super maxi-pads if she ever needs them again.
Nevertheless, it's a victory for woman everywhere because we should never be 'shamed' because our bodily functions.
?I worked hard all my life, and I loved my job," Coleman states in a release.
?I hope my speaking out will encourage other women who believe they have suffered discrimination in any form to come forward.?
What are your thoughts about Alisha Coleman's 'period leak' settlement?
Mugshot Mania – Restaurant Owner Accused of Forcing Disabled Black Worker into Slavery…
WTF?!? Georgia Woman Fired Over Heavy Menstrual Cycles… (VIDEO)
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In Atlanta Gossip,Featured,News Alicia Coleman, Lawsuit, Legal Issues, Woman's Issues, WTF


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MASTERCLASS: Gold - September 2020
As gold hits new all-time highs experts evaluate what's driving this safe haven asset's out performance. They look at fundamentals, evaluate equities, and share their outlooks moving forward. Edward Coyne, Senior Managing Director, Global Sales, Sprott Asset Management Ima Casanova, Deputy Portfolio Manager, Gold Strategy, VanEck
As gold hits new all-time highs and rises above $2,000 an ounce for the first time ever, experts evaluate what's driving this safe haven asset's outperformance. They look at fundamentals, evaluate equities, and share their outlooks moving forward.
Edward Coyne, Senior Managing Director, Global Sales, Sprott Asset Management
Ima Casanova, Deputy Portfolio Manager, Gold Strategy, VanEck
Edward Coyne, Ima Casanova
Sprott Asset Management, VanEck
Monetary Policy, Gold, Interest Rates, Fed, Commodities, Economy, Inflation, CE Credit, 30mins
www.sprott.com
www.vaneck.com
Jenna Dagenhart: Hello, and welcome to Asset TV's gold masterclass. With extremely low interest rates, the coronavirus pandemic and several risks on the horizon, people seem to be pouring into gold. Today we'll look at what's driving this safe havens outperformance and where the asset could be headed from here. Joining us now to share their outlooks and more, are two expert panelists Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director at Sprott Asset Management and Ima Casanova, Deputy Portfolio Manager, Gold Strategy at VanEck.
Jenna Dagenhart: Everyone, thank you for joining us, and to set the scene here, gold keeps hitting new all-time highs and recently rose above the $2,000 an ounce mark for the first time ever, Ed, starting with you, what's been driving this record performance?
Ed Coyne: Sure. Well, obviously the last six months or so the market has been driven by the pandemic, but you really have to go back to the fourth quarter of 2015 to understand what's really been driving the gold market, and ever since the Fed attempted to tighten back in the fourth quarter of '15, gold has continued to match forward since then. In fact, prior to the pandemic, gold was averaging over 10% a year and performing quite nicely. This was really a phase two of what we think is a more prolonged bull market that really started in the early 2000s, when you looked at what happened with the tech bubble and then the global financial crisis. Gold is continuing to get a bid as we move forward, because it's become more of a modern metal.
Ed Coyne: What I mean by that is, more and more asset managers and more and more investors are looking at gold, not as the commodity, but really more as an alternative asset from a performance pattern standpoint. So, it's really been about four and a half, five years that gold's really been performing quite nicely relative to the broader markets, but really in the last six or seven months, you've seen accelerated move in the market largely because of the pandemic. It's really not just the pandemic, it's the Fed fund policy statements, which are actually necessary and needed right now. But they're getting a little ahead of themselves from a debt standpoint and from a money printing standpoint. So, a lot of those things are really driving the gold price today.
Jenna Dagenhart: Yeah. Ima, I see you nodding your head over there. Anything that you would add that you think has been driving this price?
Ima Casanova: Yeah, I agree with what Ed has pointed out, like he said that this gold bull market started in 2016, end of 2015, beginning of 2016. Obviously, the pandemic really took gold through higher levels, but I think at different points, different factors drive gold. What we see driving gold today is negative real rates, low rates and negative real rates are very positive for gold, and that's the main driver today. There's a lot of systemic risks in the financial system that also is driving gold, the fact that we have debt at record levels, and that brings a lot of instability into the financial system, which is what gold responds to, all the liquidity being pumped into the system, all of this monetary policy, the potential unintended consequences of this, and ultimately if it could lead to inflation, all of that is what we see today driving gold.
Jenna Dagenhart: Yeah. Ima, do you mind elaborating a little bit more on some of those systemic risks that you mentioned?
Ima Casanova: Well, like I said, different factors drive gold, on the negative real rates, we don't see any potential for that to change in the near future, rates are very likely to remain low or probably get even more negative. The Fed, it's not going to increase rates anytime soon or ever in the foreseeable future, so that will continue. The other factor obviously is U.S. dollar, gold is negatively correlated to the U.S. dollar, and the past bear market for gold that was really the largest hit win for gold with the U.S. dollar strength. This year, the dollar has weakened a bit. It hasn't weakened too much, but if that were to happen and there seems to be now look for a weaker dollar, then that will also help gold's performance.
Jenna Dagenhart: We'll dig deeper into the dollar and the Fed later on in this panel event. But before we get there, sticking with some of the record rallies that we've seen, it's not just gold, we've also seen at record rallies in equity markets. Ed, what does this say about people's confidence in the economy and why is gold important there?
Ed Coyne: Sure. I think what we're seeing today is what we've seen the last couple of years where you've seen the equity markets do quite well and gold do well along with it. So, people say, "Well, is gold now becoming correlated to the equity markets?" The reality is, as more and more investors realize that, "Yes, they have to participate in the equity market. Yes, they need to own dividend paying stocks, and over multiple market cycles, you have to stay invested in the market." But what they also understand is that the market is becoming more and more volatile, and volatility can be a good thing or a bad thing, right? Volatility is also ... price is going up as well as price is going down.
Ed Coyne: So, what we're starting to see is more and more investors, not just looking at gold, but looking at alternative strategies in general, that perform differently at different times, and that allows them to stay invested in the market. I think all too often investors think about gold as gold verse stocks, gold verse the S&P. The reality is, it should be gold and the S&P. What gold does is, gold allows you to stay invested in the market over full market cycles, knowing you have a portion of your assets allocated something that performs differently for different reasons. So that's what I think we're seeing right now.
Ed Coyne: Yes, the market has rebounded back quite nicely because so much liquidity is being pumped into the market, and there's really no other alternative to put that capital, but you're also seeing gold continue to climb as well because people are going for the ride, but they're putting on the safety belt, and gold's really that safety belt, and that's what we're seeing right now in the broader markets.
Jenna Dagenhart: And they wonder, where could we go from here? Ima, I know VanEck's come out with a very bullish price target on gold. You rarely set price targets, but you have recently at $3,400 an ounce, what's behind this?
Ima Casanova: Yeah, no, you're right. We typically don't come out with a target, but we have this year, we have published our official VanEck outlook of $3,400 per ounce, which is quite a bit of appreciation from here, and it can feel like a big move. We're not suggesting that we're going to reach that target in the next few months, but I think we do see that as a longer term target, whether that's two or three years from now, it will depend on where those catalysts come in and it really could be next month, but I think more likely in the next six months or so, gold will remain range bound in that 1900, $2,000 level that we've seen it trading recently.
Ima Casanova: But we certainly see all the factors that we outlined earlier supporting gold, its role as a safe haven, its role as insurance policy when global financial risk is tightened, we'll continue to support it in the longer term. So, we see that $3,400 target maybe even a little bit conservative.
Jenna Dagenhart: Some people might say, "Oh my goodness, look how high gold has already climbed." That being said, Ed, do you think it's too late to join the gold movement or is there still more room to run?
Ed Coyne: At the risk of selling and pumping up the tires of our asset, not at all. In fact, what we're seeing is we're seeing the circle expand right now as far as the investors that are expressing interest in the space. We're getting more and more unsolicited calls from larger institutions who haven't really thought about allocating gold since the market peak back in 2011. So, it has been grossly under allocated to for the last almost decade now. What we're seeing is people say, "Okay, maybe there is something to the gold tray. Maybe there is something to gold relative to the U.S. dollar, gold relative to the S&P, maybe there is something to that factor."
Ed Coyne: So more and more investors are now taking notice of the allocation and looking at it, again, like I said earlier, not just as a commodity but really as an alternative asset and putting in that alternative asset sleeve within the diversified portfolio. You have to remember, 20 years ago, it was very difficult to allocate the physical gold, right? You didn't have the ETFs and the close end funds and the mutual funds in these liquid vehicles in ways to allocate the physical metal. Today, there is many options for an investor to allocate to the space. So, it's now just entered into the modern world of diversification, the modern world of an alternative strategy.
Ed Coyne: So, this new move in the market, this recent move in the market really has brought the circle of investors in, that maybe were on the sidelines and not really paying attention. So, we think we're actually in the beginning stages of a prolonged bull market for gold, particularly because we think you're going to see rates lower for longer, you're going to see the debt probably continue to climb, you're going to see GDP continue to struggle. A lot of these things out there aren't going away anytime soon. So yes, we think that sure gold has moved nicely, but by no means is this the back end of the trade, this is actually an RV at the beginning of it.
Jenna Dagenhart: To your point, Ed, about all these different investment vehicles, it's not like you have to own bullion in your basement to have a stake in gold.
Ed Coyne: That's right. You don't have to do that, although some of our investors do have some in their basement. We have some investors that have it in the foundation of their house, but no, you're right. There's no one way you have to own it today, there's multiple options. What we're finding is the larger investors, the big institutions, the private families, they do want to have direct ownership of the metal, paper contracts really isn't something that they're comfortable with or interested in. There's a place for both, though. So, depending on the client and what they're trying to do and accomplish with the allocation, some want to have the physical ownership.
Ed Coyne: We offer trust that allows that, other asset managers offer opportunities to do that as well. Some are just fine getting exposure to spot price and simply just trading the spot price action. So, there's a lot of different ways to do it today, but I would say the serious money, the big institutions, the large private families, they do want to have some physical ownership because they want to have portion of their capital allocated away from the traditional stock market.
Jenna Dagenhart: So more and more people are taking notice of gold, as you say, but do you think it's still underutilized? It sounds like, yes.
Ed Coyne: Oh, it's incredibly underutilized, is less than 1% at least in the U.S. and I can't speak to the global allocation, but in the U.S. is well under 1%. At the market peak, it represented about 7%. So, we have really no one paying attention. In fact, people are paying attention to the physical side, but no one's really paying attention yet to the equity side of the gold trade, which is something we're enthusiastic about and very excited about for the next three to five years because of the margin expansion, which I suspect we'll talk about later today as well.
Jenna Dagenhart: Yeah. Ima, I see you nodding your head again, anything that you would throw in there?
Ima Casanova: No, I mean, when Ed mentioned margin expansion and the equities, that's our sweet spot, we as well provide the whole suite of investment opportunities from physical gold, which can be delivered, which investors really like with our OUNZ product, but also with our ETFs, then our active products for gold equities. So, I agree the opportunities there are really exciting because margins are indeed expanding as the gold price rises.
Jenna Dagenhart: And Warren Buffet would say, "Hey, but it doesn't yield income." Ed, what would you say to people, what's the case for owning gold? Why own gold?
Ed Coyne: Sure, sure. Well, first, Warren Buffet as most people know, they recently took a meaningful position, maybe not relative to Berkshire size, but relative to the company size in a large cap mining stock. So, for the first time and I think everyone in a very long time, they've actually started to allocate to gold. Some of the larger cap companies on the equity side do pay dividends, on the physical side though, Buffet does like to knock on gold and say, "It's yellow rock that you should dig out of the ground and then you dig another hole in the ground and put it back in and you just spend money." But the reality is, as smart as Buffett is, he doesn't really understand the purpose of gold.
Ed Coyne: Stocks are designed to make you money, stocks are designed to have dividends and have earnings. Gold is designed to protect those dividends, protect those earnings, to diversify the portfolio. That's really the benefit of gold. It's an asset that performs differently at different times for different reasons, period. I think the investor that tries to compare gold to a stock misses the whole purpose behind the allocation. I think that's why so many people haven't allocated to it because they don't know how to value it.
Ed Coyne: In the simplest form, gold is an alternative currency. When you think about what gold does and how it performs, it's an alternative currency, and that's how people should think about it. It's just another currency out there, it's a true store of value. The dollar is not really a store of value, A, the purchasing power has been completely diluted, and B, over the last five years, the U.S. dollar is actually down a little bit. So, when you think about gold, think about it as an alternative currency, think about it as a true store of value. Think about it as a true alternative asset in a way not to replace your stocks, but to really compliment them.
Jenna Dagenhart: Yeah, those are great points. Last time I checked, no one has ever called stocks a safe haven or a store of value or any of those things.
Ed Coyne: That's right.
Jenna Dagenhart: Ima, how would you say that the high price of gold has changed your company research? Is it easier or more difficult to analyze individual companies or projects?
Ima Casanova: It doesn't really change much the work we do from a research perspective, we maintain and generate our own internal models at VanEck, and so everything is linked real time, so the gold price. So, at any day we wake up and we can run our models at the higher prices at the whatever the currency prices are and get new valuations to assess the relative value of all the stocks. So, it doesn't really change that much from that perspective. I think what it does, and it probably will do, is that it will increase our research universe a little bit in that there'll be more projects that now will be looked at, companies will start to review projects that didn't work at 1200, $1,400 in gold, but that start to become economic at $1,500 in gold and so forth.
Ima Casanova: So, from that point of view, I think we'll be looking at more companies, more projects and more companies as a result, which is great. This is a relatively small space, so the opportunity to look at more ideas from a research perspective is obviously beneficial.
Jenna Dagenhart: I want to take a step back and look at how gold has performed over longer periods of time, say 5, 10, 15, or even 20 years. Ed, what can we learn from these other periods?
Ed Coyne: Sure, what's interesting is, there's a particular chart that we like to show that starts in 2000 and virtually every investor that I show it to, they don't believe me, that gold has actually outperformed the S&P for the last two plus decades. In fact, the only time it really has is from 2011 to 2015. Since that [inaudible 00:16:32] actually ... Believe it or not, since 2016, gold and the S&P are up virtually identical. So, it's been really interesting to think about gold over multiple market cycles. You just don't need a pandemic for gold to outperform, and really, it's the old kind of win by not losing, talking about gold being a store of value, it continues to rise with the rate of inflation.
Ed Coyne: So I'd say if you get a doubling effect on the inflation rate, so let's say inflation is running at 2% and gold's averaging 4%, then it's doing its job, frankly, it's been doing much more than that because there's been so much volatility in the market between the tech bubble, the global financial crisis, the trade war, the Fed attempting to tighten in 2015, and now the pandemic, we're getting a compressed market cycle that has more and more volatility in it, and so in that environment gold is doing even better. But if you think about gold just from a performance pattern standpoint relative to inflation, for the last two decades, it's done very well. I use the last two decades really because of what I said earlier about gold being a modern metal or modern allocation today.
Ed Coyne: In the 70s and the 80s, there was time periods where gold did very well and there's time periods that it didn't do well, but it wasn't as accessible as it is today. So, that accessibility has really brought gold into the forefront as a legitimate allocation, as a way to hold it on a balance sheet and show it to your client and how it performs, and it's accessible in a way that it hadn't been. So, the last 20 years is a really good timeframe to look at what gold has done over multiple market cycles in both bull markets and bear markets. But the thing that always surprises people over the last 20 years is, gold's been one of the best performing assets out there, period.
Jenna Dagenhart: And pardon the pun, but there's no denying that gold has been shining quite a bit lately.
Ed Coyne: Yes.
Jenna Dagenhart: Ima, when was the last time gold performed this well, and do you see any similarities between then and now, what's different?
Ima Casanova: Yeah. I think we like to look at the previous secular and cyclical gold bull markets, and what we find is that this bull market that we're saying began in end of 2015, early 2016, it's tracking more closely the gold bull market of 2001 through 2008. In that cycle, gold was up almost 300%. That's part of what makes us also very bullish about the trajectory of this gold bull market and why we also think we're in the early stages. So, that looks very similar to that period, there are obviously differences that are I think make this cycle even more positive for gold in that, in those periods real rates were in negative, in those periods, central bank's balance sheets didn't look the way they look today with trillions and trillions of dollars.
Ima Casanova: The monetary policies being implemented warrant the tools that are being implemented today, and so there were differences, back in the 1000s, there were a lot of gold discoveries still. We have a chart where we show gold discoveries throughout the years, and there is really not been any major gold discovery in recent years, while in the 2000, these companies were spending on finding gold. So, from a supply perspective, it still looks a lot more positive today. Central banks were net buyers of gold back in that and during that gold bull market, they have been gold buyers for 10 years in a row now. So, there are obviously similarities, and I think there are other aspects that make this gold bull market even have more fuel.
Jenna Dagenhart: We've talked a lot about gold here, what about silver, Ed?
Ed Coyne: Sure. Silver has gotten a lot of attention as we've all seen in the last quarter or so, it's done very well here more recently. Silver is a true hybrid metal. What's unique about silver is that there's a lot of industrial applications to it. From a monetary standpoint, central banks aren't typically buying silver, they really don't do that. A lot of institutions don't really allocate to silver, but a lot of retail investors do. So, there are times when gold starts to move, silver starts to play a bit of catch up and can have very violent swings up, but also have violence swings down. So, some people like to talk about the gold to silver ratio, which is sitting around 72 or 73 right now.
Ed CoyneIf you look at the earlier part of the year, the gold, the silver ratio was over a 100. So, a lot of the "silver bugs" were really enthusiastic about the future of silver, and it proved to play out. Silver has done extremely well year to date. So, think about silver more as a retail allocation, think about silver as more of a hybrid application and use more in the industrial markets, whether it's for medical devices, solar panels, flat panel TVs. There's a lot of things that silver can be used for that typically gold is not, even if you're talking about battery technology and reflective technology for self-driving cars and so forth, there's a whole other market in silver, whether it's the recycling side of silver, the industrial side of silver, but from an investment standpoint, I think it's more retail, and not so much institutional. So, they're going to perform a little differently.
Ed Coyne: If you're truly looking to have a hedge to the broader markets, I would say, stick with gold. If you're looking to opportunistically trade the metal prices, then silver could become quite interesting.
Jenna Dagenhart: And Ima, what factors outside of systemic risks have been impacting the price of gold, i.e. supply and demand, and have there been any notable changes or trends in these factors, which might also be impacting gold prices currently?
Ima Casanova: I think it's important to point out what I believe it's an important change, an important shift in investment demand, which ultimately is the driver of the gold price. What I mean is I see institutions, I see endowments, pension funds, investors and the markets in general is starting to shift from viewing gold as a quick trade, a tactical allocation, a way to play the market, a more speculative if you might, investment and play into shifting from that to viewing gold as a long term portfolio allocation, where gold just plays a role, not just for a few years, but permanently gold as a role, as a portfolio diversify or as a portfolio insurance, as a safe haven.
Ima Casanova: I think that shift can be very material. Globally, assets under management held in gold, it's less than 1% I think is something around 0.7%. So, you can see how just even a small tweak to that, just growing that to one and a half to 2% can have a material impact in the gold price. So, I think it is an important trend.
Jenna Dagenhart: Ima, given the record level of gold and the expectation that this may last, do you see companies changing their spending? Are there other initiatives that these firms are engaging in now that they weren't able to do previously, technology, R&D spending larger exploration budget?
Ima Casanova: Yes, I think that is a great question, these companies are generating a lot of free cash, at $2,000 gold, at $1,800 gold, these companies are producing a lot of cash and we were very cautious to see where they're going to deploy that cash. What we're seeing in this cycle and with the companies, the way the sector looks today is that the companies are very disciplined. They are very careful in what they're doing with that cash. So yes, obviously exploration spending will increase and companies have more money, they'll be able to invest more in exploration, and certainly in some of those other areas that you mentioned, R&D and technology will be focused, but I think companies will continue to use free cash flow to repay debt, to make their balance sheets even healthier. They will use it to increase dividends.
Ima Casanova: This is a pretty low dividend yield sector, historically has been, and so we see a new trend where companies are increasing the dense. So, they're using the cash flow to return it to shareholders. They're buying back shares when they can, taking advantage of historically low valuations. They're being careful to not go and buy things for the sake of buying things. That's old news, they are using their cash more conservatively to grow their organic pipeline. We see more preference for expansions, for lower CapEx projects, which obviously decreases their risk in these projects, so we like it. A preference for that instead of going to buy new project or new companies at high prices, which proved to be very ... But value-destructive in the past. I think the companies have shown to be disciplined in their capital allocation, and it is early in this cycle, but everything points to them remain in discipline in that front.
Jenna Dagenhart:Turning now to the Fed, which I know you brought up earlier Ed, the Fed recently came out saying that it would be willing to tolerate a higher inflation. Tell us about the reaction in gold market Ed, and how this could impact the rally long-term.
Ed Coyne: Sure. I mean, we've both talked about this quite a bit, the whole concept of a store of value and that's really ... at the end of the day when you strip everything else out, that inflation plus two concepts, if inflation is five, I would expect gold to be at seven on the conservative side. That's really what you want to see happen in the gold trade, that's really what people talk about when they talk about gold as a store of value, is that it maintains its purchasing power for decades, for centuries frankly. When you look at what gold's done from an appreciation standpoint, over multiple, multiple, multiple market cycles.
Ed Coyne: 27:29 So, the inflation story with the Fed allowing inflation to potentially run, frankly, it already is here in asset prices, right? You've got cost of capital so cheap that most CEOs are borrowing capital and buying back stock and driving their stock prices higher, that has continued to happen. So, you've seen asset prices inflated, and now you're seeing day to day items start to inflate slowly, some people talk about it from a deflationary standpoint, and gold can do well in that environment as well.
Ed Coyne: Basically, anytime there's uncertainty or lack of certainty in the directional price of the markets of inflation, deflation of the value of the U.S. dollar, gold serves a role there. So. with the Fed being in support of some more inflation, because frankly, let's be honest, that inflation will help the debt burden, right? So, we've got over seven trillion in debt today. We got to deal with that in some way, shape or form, and inflation is one way to do that. So, of course they're going to allow inflation to run a bit. In that environment, gold becomes a mandatory asset. You really do need to think about having an allocation into that space because of its historical performance patterns in inflationary times.
Jenna Dagenhart: And I know the Fed has said that it's not even thinking about raising interest rates-
Ed Coyne: No.
Jenna Dagenhart: But if the Fed does raise rates, eventually they start going up. What will that mean for gold, Ed?
Ed Coyne: Sure. Well, interest rates rising isn't necessarily a bad thing. The last time we had rates rising, gold did quite well. So, the directional move in interest rates really isn't what you should be focusing on. What you should be focusing on is the why behind interest rates. So, let's just take 2016 for example, the Fed started raising rates in the fourth quarter of '15, and gold started rallying on that. The reason why it rallied on that is because the market understood that rates had to go up in the event the market sold off, they needed some ammunition, some dry ammunition to lower rates again, and thankfully we were able to raise rates to a point to where we could start lowering them again when the pandemic hit.
Ed Coyne: So, it's really the why behind the directional move of interest rates, not the actual directional move or how much rates have moved. So, you have to really peel it back and try to understand why rates are going up or going down in the broader market, and in many cases, that's going to be supportive of golds. So, we wouldn't say rising interest rates would automatically be bad for gold. Now, real rates may be bad for gold, but Fed fund rates not so much.
Jenna Dagenhart: I'm glad that you bring up real interest rates, Ima, can you talk to us in a little bit more detail now about negative real interest rates and dollar weakness and why they matter so much to the price of gold? Are we likely to see one or both of these in the next several years?
Ima Casanova: Yeah, so I think the big knock on gold is always, "It doesn't generate any income." That's what Warren Buffet was saying. That's what a lot of market participants say, "Why would I hold gold? It doesn't give me an income." But when you're competing assets are not just generating income, but yielding negative rate, which we have trillions and trillions of negative yielding debt right now globally, then it becomes a lot more attractive to own gold. So that makes it very clear to understand why negative real rates are positive for gold. Then like Ed mentioned, it's not just interest rates, interest rates can increase, it's really how that compares with what's happening in inflation and deflation as long as inflation is increasing, and that's why, say, the Fed now that they have a higher inflation target this size to hike rates, which obviously we don't see, but if that were to happen real rates are likely to still be negative which again is supportive of gold.
Ima Casanova: Our outlook for the U.S. dollar, I think it depends very much on how we [rise 00:31:34] through this pandemic, not just how we do it here in the U.S. but how the rest of the world does it, who comes out of this sooner? Who can open up their economies faster? And if that needs appreciation or depreciation of different currencies that will affect the outlook of the U.S. dollar, but certainly we don't see U.S. dollar strength as a headwind for gold, which had been in the past. So, when you ask, "Can we have one or both of this?" I think a more likely scenario is that we will for the foreseeable future have both negative real rates, and either a stable or a weakening U.S. dollar, which will be supportive for gold.
Jenna Dagenhart: Ed, do you agree?
Ed Coyne: Absolutely. I mean, the dollar is interesting. Everyone says, "Well, gee the dollar, it's such a safe haven." If you look at the actual return patterns of the dollar, it's basically been flat to slightly negative over the last five years. So, the dollar's purchasing power continues to erode over time, even in the most modest inflationary times. So, those dollars need to be invested into the market to actually earn any kind of interest. When interest rates are so low, the dollar is really not that great of an investment. So, dollars are great to go buy your coffee on the corner, but day in day out, it's not really a great investment. So, you need to think about every asset out there as an investment. How are you going to put that asset to work for you? What is it going to do for you? And frankly, what has it done for you over the last 3, 5, 10, 20 years?
Ed Coyne: So, yeah. We think the dollar is going to continue to be under pressure. Look, you can't keep printing something and putting one, fives, tens and fifties on it and expect it to hold its value as you print more and more of it. So, there is definitely a dilution effect that's happening in the U.S. dollar today. Frankly, we don't want it, there's a lot of Fed policies that don't want to see a strong dollar also because we still need to be a global leader from a commerce standpoint. So, a strong dollar would hurt us in that regard as well. So, there's a lot of reasons why the dollar ... we don't think it's going to get strong anytime soon.
Jenna Dagenhart: Ima, you've said that this is a deflationary driven gold market, but can you address this scenario where stimulus leads to inflationary pressures and how would gold likely respond?
Ima Casanova: Yes, gold response to both scenarios, it responds to risk [inaudible 00:33:55] financial system. So, both deflation and inflation are good drivers for gold. What we have seen is that in periods of elevated inflation, of higher inflation, gold does respond better. So should these policies and all the money being injected into the system lead to higher inflation which I think most of us expect at some point, then we would expect an even stronger response from gold in those cyclical and secular markets, where we saw periods of high inflation, gold that time throws as much as 500%. So, inflation is certainly a stronger driver of gold.
Jenna Dagenhart: And I know, Ima said end of 2015, early 2016, Ed, in your opinion, when do you think the most recent bull run in gold truly began?
Ed Coyne: Well, we would be in the same camp with that. I'd say, you look at the bull run really in two phases, right? The super cycle as we like to call it, really started in 2000, but the most recent cycle was when the Fed attempted to tighten, when the Fed said, "We're going to start tightening." And the world looked around and said, "Well, I don't know if that's going to work because there's not enough supportive GDP out there to really justify a higher interest rate environment." So, when that happened, the first half of 2016, gold goes up very strongly. It was up over 20% and the gold equities up over a 100, albeit from a lower base, but the market reacted very strongly to the gold trade when the Fed attempted to push the pedal.
Ed Coyne: That's why I said earlier about, you have to understand the why behind the Fed's response to some of these things and understand that what gold can or can't do in that type of environment. So, we would agree, we would say that the fourth quarter of 2015 really was the start or the fuel for the most recent cycle that we're experiencing right now. Where gold's up 80, 90% from that moment in time. But the super cycle, as we like to call it, really has been going on for about two decades, and we think as you continue to see more volatility, as you continue to see more financial and geopolitical uncertainty in the market, gold's going to continue to serve as a role, and we're going to see more and more investors as I mentioned earlier [inaudible 00:36:21] investor circle continue to widen and see more people think about gold as legitimate asset and diversifying their portfolios.
Jenna Dagenhart: And obviously gold's been doing extremely well, but Ima, are there any market events or scenarios that might lead to a pullback in gold prices or a change in your bullish outlook significantly?
Ima Casanova: Yes, I think a vaccine is developed and widely implemented and it's successful that really changes the outlook of what this pandemic is causing, that would be negative for gold because that would mean people can get back to work and the economies can reopen. So, U.S. economy, global economy that recovers more quickly than what I think we're anticipating, would be negative for gold. If we didn't see any inflation starting to build up, that would probably lead to eventually some pullback in gold, because like I said, inflation expectations do drive gold. So, I think those morose scenarios, us getting out of this recession sooner would eventually lead to a pullback in gold prices.
Jenna Dagenhart: And Ed, I know it's not something that you necessarily want to think about, but what would it take to make gold change course?
Ed Coyne: Well, I think you're exactly right. Talking about a vaccine, which at some point we will have one, that's going to have a level of jubilation in the economy and in the market in the world. You'll see those types of emotional pullbacks in gold. Then we'd like to always segregate an emotional pullback, or an emotional rally verse a financial one, right? So, the financial issues are still all there, there's debts, not going to go away magically, the amount of money we've dumped into the market is not going away magically. A lot of these jobs that have been lost, we're going to find out are permanent losses and GDP is going to slow through that even if the economy has a short live Springback or bounce back.
Ed Coyne: So, there's an emotional reason why gold does well or does poorly, and there's a financial one. Regardless of what happens from an emotional standpoint, I.e., having a vaccine, which we will have at some point, hopefully sooner than later, you still have the financial issues that we have to deal with. So, I see, and we see as a firm, any pauses or pullbacks in the market is opportunities frankly, to allocate additional capital to this space, because it have to look at the long-term reasons why gold has done as well as it has for the last two decades, and a lot of those things aren't going away anytime soon. So, the lower for longer interest rates, the constant threat of potential inflation or deflation for that matter is real and going to be around for years to come, regardless of what happens with the pandemic.
Jenna Dagenhart: Ima, walk us through the best case and worst-case scenarios for the economy and the subsequent response of gold.
Ima Casanova: Yeah, I think best case is what we've just talked about. We have a vaccine sooner rather than later; we start to be able to reopen our economy and get things back in track. It's hard to be very bullish on that outlook, but certainly, in the best case, that vaccine comes sooner rather than later, and also governments across the world are able to deal with this pandemic in the way that we hope they do to really allow the economies to reopen. But with that said, even that best case still has a lot of risks that won't go away, and I think even in that best case, gold will do well.
Ima Casanova: The worst case, we continue to being ... or this recession gets even deeper and things get even worse, and we go into a cycle of hyperinflation which obviously would be extremely, gold bullish, but also there's a lot of other issues that servicing the social unrest in the U.S. then, especially that all could really complicate things and make it even worse. I needless to say that would be very positive for the gold price, but I think the way things are today, the most positive scenario or the worst bode really well for gold in the longer term.
Jenna Dagenhart: Now let's spend a little bit more time on equities here. Ed, how should an investor think about physical gold versus gold equities?
Ed Coyne: Sure. We always like to start by saying physical first, and what we mean by that is, investor needs to ask themselves, why are they allocating to the gold trade to begin with, right? So, gold traditionally is viewed as that hedge. So, physical first is really the right way in our mind to think about the allocation. Then as an investor gets comfortable with that allocation and sees what their gold allocation can accomplish in an overall portfolio, if they believe as we do, that gold is going to stay stable and or go higher. Then the gold equities become more of a tactical opportunistic trade. There's times you want to own gold equities, there's times you do not, but you need to own gold over multiple market cycles for it to really be beneficial in your portfolio from a diversification standpoint.
Ed Coyne: So they are very different in that regard. But if you think gold is going to be flat to positive as we do over the next three to five years, then the gold equity story becomes more and more interesting, because of the creation of free cash flow, margin expansion, gold miners in general, depending on where they are in the world, and what type of mine it is, whether it's an open pit or closed pit and so forth. They're roughly running at about 1100 bucks an ounce and 18, 19, $2,000 an ounce, these companies are very profitable. So, from a tactical allocation right now, a portion of your gold allocation, we believe should be in the equities, from an opportunistic standpoint today, given the narrative for the gold price, the physical gold price over the next three to five years.
Ed Coyne: So, you do need to think about them differently, think about the physical allocation as a way to diversify and protect your overall portfolio, and think about the equity portion of your portfolio, the miners, whether it's senior, more liquid miners or more opportunistic junior, small cap type miners is a way to add additional torque to your portfolio and a greater leverage trade to the price of gold. So, they are very different, they perform a bit differently at different times, there's different volatility factors you have to consider in both, but in this environment right now, we think both really are warranted in a portfolio, both physical from a core allocation and equity as an opportunistic allocation.
Jenna Dagenhart: Ima, you run a gold equity strategy. What do you believe are the most compelling reasons to be invested in the miners versus, say, physical gold?
Ima Casanova: I agree that a mix of both bullion, physical gold and equities is probably the right approach. We're often asked how much we should own in our portfolios, and we often say probably a 5% at least, somewhere in that 3 to 7% range is what you really need to be allocating the portfolio to really feel the benefits of owning gold. I do believe that a mix is the right approach, what that mix looks like depends very much on risk tolerance of each investor, clearly gold equities are more volatile, but they also have higher returns. The key is, once you form an outlook of where the gold price is going, in this case we believe gold price can go much higher, then in that environment, gold equities should outperform the metal. That's because of leverage, because as the gold price increases, the margins of this company expands significantly.
Ima Casanova: So, our case for the gold equities goes beyond just a higher gold price, it is not just that gold is going higher, which obviously it's needed and positive for the gold equities, but it's also the shape that this companies are in. These are companies that have been transformed over the last years and are sound businesses. Yeah, break-even is somewhere around 1100 or so at that level. So, you can see what things look like at 2000. I think because of the transformation of this sector, I would like to think that equities might start to be less of a speculative tactical play and part eventually of the broader equity market.
Ima Casanova: If gold companies can't make money at $1,200, if they're actually preferable, $1,200, and they remained discipline where reserves don't get priced all of a sudden, they're not trying to bring in reserves and bringing analysis that at 2000 and $1,800 gold, but they've remained conservative and keeping the quality of their portfolios, I think these are ongoing sustainable profitable businesses that could become part of a longer term equity allocation. But yes, if you have the risk tolerance and you believe that gold is going higher, the gold equities are the way to go to really realize those higher returns.
Jenna Dagenhart: Going back to our conversation about Berkshire Hathaway recently buying a stake in Barrick Gold, which is quite a reversal for Warren Buffet, who, as we talked about, has been a little bit against buying the asset, but anyhow, Ima, do you think that Buffet buying Barrick is a sign of capitulation or do you think he's just interested in this mining company?
Ima Casanova: I think it goes actually precisely to my point of the equities, notice that they didn't buy bullion, they invested in equities, Barrick of the largest gold mining companies in the world, and I think that's a testament to precisely the argument I was making before that this businesses are good businesses, dividend yields are increasing, which is a trend that we see continuing. So, the broader market can begin to look at this companies as part of their investible universe, and I think Buffet or his disciples, whoever decided to pull the trigger on that trade, making that move it's a huge message to the broader sector that they should be looking at this equities as good potential investment.
Ima Casanova: So, I think it's very positive obviously because of the fact that everybody's listening, and obviously the Barrick stock price reacted to the announcement. But I think it goes back also to gold being seen as a longer-term allocation, I don't think that's just for bullion, I think eventually gold equities as well will be seen as providing the same benefits that gold bullion provides diversification and insurance for portfolio. So, I think it's, like I said, the beginning of a new era for the gold equity sector.
Jenna Dagenhart: Ed, anything that you would add about the miners.
Ed Coyne: Yeah. I'd say on the miner side, I would agree with Buffet coming in, it is becoming more institutionalized, more of the larger cap, liquid names are paying dividends. So again, look at the directional price of the physical to get a sense of what you can expect out of the miner. So, we would agree with that, that the miners are coming into their own right now, and we love to see them be a more permanent part of an overall portfolio as those look to benefit from the overall directional price of gold. So, I do think you have to think about them though, from a large cap, more established liquid version versus a small cap, more junior version of the space. So, it would be similar to the way you look at the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000, say 15 or 20 years ago.
Ed Coyne: You have to dig a little deeper, not just buy a bunch of miners, but really use a manager who's going to understand the way the market works and understand where there's value, whether it's a single mine and the more junior small cap space or a more diversified company that has multiple mines and multiple regions in the large cap space, they're both value added for different reasons and both had different liquidity issues to them. So, I think you need to look at that from an active standpoint frankly, and have a manager involved with the stock selection process, because you can make a lot of money in this space, you can also lose a lot of money in this space. So, it's a wonderful place to allocate capital to over full market cycles, particularly when the gold price is moving like we're seeing it today.
Jenna Dagenhart: Ima, talk to us a little bit more about the juniors.
Ima Casanova: Yeah. Like Ed mentioned, they are riskier, more speculative investments, but they provide an opportunity to realize much higher returns. I think active stock selection is key in this space, we pride ourselves with having a team that has the technical geological engineering expertise to be able to pick this stocks, these junior stocks at early stages. The earlier you can discover that you can find this companies and believe that their gold deposit will eventually become a mine, obviously the higher the returns that you will realize. So indeed, they're less liquid names, they are more volatile, they're riskier from a technical perspective because obviously they're in development, but they allow for a lot of alpha generation if you pick the right ones at the right time.
Jenna Dagenhart: Before we wrap up this panel, I wonder, Ed, are there any misperceptions surrounding gold, any myths that you would like to lead a rest?
Ed Coyne: Yeah. Well, I wouldn't say it's a misperception, but I think the knock-on gold that we've touched on a few times that doesn't pay dividend, right? It doesn't have earnings, and so how do you make an "unproductive asset" productive? What we always tell people is what a lot of our institutional clients tell us, when I asked them, "How do they use gold in their portfolio?" They say, "Well, gold's a great allocation from a diversification standpoint, but you have to manage that allocation." What they mean by that is, and what we support is, you have to dial up and dial down that allocation based off these performance patterns.
Ed Coyne: So, if the year ended today and the gold market's up over 25, almost 30% year to date, and the S&P is up like 10. So, if that were to happen right now, you would want to trim your gold position and get it back down to 5% of your overall portfolio, conversely year like last year where the S&P outperform, you would want to actually be adding to your gold position and managing that 5% core allocation. If you just set it and forget it, unlike a stock that does pay dividends, it does have earnings and appreciates because of the dividends in many cases, gold doesn't do that. So, you do have to manage that allocation and dial it up when it's underperforming and dial it back when it's outperforming.
Ed Coyne: If you do that over a full market cycle, gold will become one of your better diversifying assets out there. It will be a true beneficial tool in helping you balance your overall risk reward balance in that portfolio. That's what we always like to tell people, is that, first understand why you're allocating to this space, and then second, once you make that allocation, you can't just set it and forget it and think it's a magic elixir to your overall portfolio. You do have to manage that allocation, you do have to pay attention to that allocation in a periodic rebalance, whether it's quarterly or annually or semi-annually depending on the tax sensitivity of that account. That is really how you get the most out of the physical gold market.
Ed Coyne: Then of course the equity side, again, if you believe as we do the directional price of gold, the equity market could be very interesting. Again, with the larger caps paying dividends, they're going to have a similar profile to a traditional stock, but on the physical side, managing that allocation is key. That's how you really get the most out of that core allocation in a portfolio.
Jenna Dagenhart: Ima, any final thoughts on your end that you'd like to share?
Ima Casanova: Yeah, I think on myths on how gold is perceived, I think it isn't just for gold bugs, it isn't just for conspiracy theory people. I think there's this perception that only people with gold under their mattress or in their basement were all a little crazy, were investing in gold. I think these times like we're having today, going through this pandemic, it's shining a light on that, on what happens during times of crisis, and the answer is that, gold outperforms, and gold does exhibit properties as a safe haven and a portfolio insurance. So, I think, like I mentioned before, that shift and that psychological shift that eventually might translate into investment and demand shift, it's an important trend that can have a huge impact in the gold sector.
Jenna Dagenhart: Ed, anything that you would like to leave our viewers with today?
Ed Coyne: I think, just think about gold as your core allocation, think about gold equities as an opportunistic allocation in this current environment. I mean, I think both should be part of your portfolio.
Jenna Dagenhart: Well, Ima and Ed, it's been a pleasure. Thank you so much for joining us.
Ed Coyne: Thanks for having us.
Ima Casanova: Thank you.
Jenna Dagenhart: And thank you for watching this gold masterclass. I was joined by Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director at Sprott Asset Management, and Ima Casanova, Deputy Portfolio Manager, Gold Strategy at VanEck, and I'm Jenna Dagenhart with Asset TV.
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Ski Patrollers: Become a cliff rescue expert.
They help you find a beeping transceiver.
By contrast, a "smart" phone can do, well, pretty much anything that involves data transmission and digital processing.
So why can't my phone also serve as an avalanche beacon?
First and foremost, although a phone's antenna can receive cell phone, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and GPS frequencies, it can't transmit or receive on the 457 kHz avalanche transceiver frequency. The very long wave of this frequency allows it to penetrate snow without any signal loss, but it also makes it difficult to create antennas that are short enough to fit inside a phone.
And since a cell phone can't transmit or receive on the existing avalanche transceiver frequency, any cell phone app that attempts to replace an avalanche transceiver will work only if everyone in your party has the same app. That's a problem. Another problem is that cell phone batteries don't last very long. Certainly nothing like the minimum of 200 hours transmitting followed by one hour of searching which is required for traditional transceivers.
The next problem is using the touch screen with some combination of numb and trembling fingers in cold, wet, snowing, windy (or blindingly sunny) weather. It's difficult enough to place a phone call in this weather let alone use it as life-saving rescue gear.
And even if you are willing to accept the above limitations, understand that neither of the currently available apps provide any directional or distance information—only signal strength. In other words, the apps can't tell you whether you should go left or right, only whether the victim's signal is getting stronger or weaker.
Here's a look at a few apps that are currently available (we're hoping the list doesn't grow...).
Another phone-based app, iSis, has been released. iSis has a creative approach. First, it can use your trajectory (presumably a fall) to send text alerts to your predesignated friends or to a rescue group (e.g., the ski patrol). The search is done using a combination of GPS, Wi-Fi (up to 1000 meters), and Bluetooth (up to 45 meters).
Their website states, "Attention, iSis is not a magic cape of invincibility. The application neither replaces thorough preparation for your mountain excursions nor the adherence to "best practice" and safety rules of the mountain." We agree it isn't a magic cape of invincibility and it doesn't adhere to the safety rules. Let's hope its name, ISIS, scares people away.
Snøg(for Android phones) is free. It uses Wi-Fi signals to transmit and search. Snøg's transmit mode simply configures your phone to serve as a Wi-Fi Hotspot. Then its search mode looks for Wi-Fi transmitters, just like when you're trying to connect to a Wi-Fi network.
In a June 2013 on-line comment, Snøg referenced a possible upcoming paid version with Bluetooth and GPS (they may want to read about SnoWhere's Bluetooth challenges).
GPS signal acquisition underneath snow. A high-sensitivity GPS receiver with an antenna optimized for GPS signal reception can indeed acquire GPS signals underneath snow. But phones typically lack the very latest in GPS chips, and their antennas are optimized for cell phone networks, not GPS satellites. SnoWhere claims, "SnoWhere's ability to identify your location is dependent on variable GPS accuracy. In our tests, the best GPS accuracy was ±5m on iPhones 4 & 4S and ±10m on iPhones 3G & 3GS. Signal strength display helps determine the distance between iPhones with greater accuracy than GPS." Even setting aside the uncertain rigor of these tests (and the uncertain meaning of the final sentence quoted above), running the math, the very best scenario requires that a searcher probe either 845 or 3,382 square feet (iPhone 4 and 3G, respectively). And who knows how much that degrades under whatever more demanding scenarios that SnoWhere did not test.
Bluetooth transmission underneath snow and over long distances. The iPhone 4S cited by SnoWhere has Bluetooth 4.0 and the earlier versions listed as compatible with SnoWhere have Bluetooth 2.x—yet SnoWhere only vaguely claims that, "SnoWhere has a range of 40m and has been tested in depths up to 2m." without specifying which model was tested. Somewhat anecdotally, my Droid Incredible has Bluetooth 2.1 with a headset range of only a few meters before static overwhelms the voice quality.
The useful aerial extent might be minimal. If SnoWhere's vague claim of a 40 meter range does indeed degrade under certain conditions, and if SnoWhere's 10 meter accuracy claim for the iPhone 3GS also degrades under certain conditions, the span over which SnoWhere provides any useful information might approach zero (e.g., 25 meter Bluetooth range coupled with 20 meter GPS accuracy).
Wi-Fi interference. Remember to turn off Wi-Fi beforehand "for best performance" (such as it is).
Phone call interference. The following passage implies that if a phone call is randomly received during the search, then SnoWhere will shut down entirely: "SnoWhere also remembers when you might forget – by restarting automatically after phone call interruptions to keep you transmitting, so your friends can find you. You'll always know that SnoWhere is running by its reassuring ping."
Overall, these apps would make nice school projects, but they are woefully inadequate for their intended lifesaving roles. Also note that the SnoWhere Facebook page shows the last update on January 28, 2013 without any references to the iPhone 5 that was released in September 2012 or the iPhone 5C and 5S which were released in September 2013. Perhaps the only good news in all of this is that SnoWhere is no longer trying to market this app actively even though it remains available on the iTunes store. More grandly, despite concerns that legal liability will stifle innovation, clearly these developers are not afraid to market purported lifesaving products that are almost inherently incapable of saving any lives.


At FW accounting we have a leased line for access to the internet. I'm not a "techie" but I'm told that this means we have a super-fast connection and don't have to rely on the standard BT lines for access. Our phone lines also work over the leased line, meaning we can make & receive a large volume of calls. Which is absolutely fantastic when it works, which is 99% of the time.
Today was the 1% that you hope you never have to deal with. However, it taught us a number of lessons, almost all of them positive. Here are the details.
We outsource our IT management to Aberdeen-based Indigo. They have a system setup to notify them if the line ever goes down. This happened at 1.03am. They obviously couldn't phone or email us to let us know, so what did they do? They sent me a tweet!
By 7am both Indigo and Arrowdawn, who support our phone system, were on the case and had people on site. By the time I arrived at the office, they were beavering away.
We couldn't send emails out, and people emailing us wouldn't know we weren't getting their emails. Anyone calling our main number was getting a message telling them that our number was unobtainable. Not good.
This was when the professionals we work with really earned their corn. First of all AJ from Indigo and the guys from Arrowdawn managed to put together a work around that diverted our 0845 number to a separate line outwith the leased line. People calling that number could now get through. AJ also managed to divert emails via this same ADSL line, so although it was slow, emails started to filter through sporadically.
Then the FW team got on the case. Myself and Michelle got busy on social media, letting people know via twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn & Aberdeen Business Network what was happening. Meanwhile the wonderful Julie Mitchell-Mehta from Debut Marketing sent a communication to all of our clients via MailChimp to let them know.
Emma De Silva, one of our reception team, was coolness personified, liaising between our leased line provider, Indigo & Arrowdawn, and letting everyone internally know what was happening. Turned out the problem was at Cable & Wireless, the leased line provider, who had a major server failure. So this was happening to lots of companies across the UK.
By early afternoon the line was back up & running again. AJ & Arrowdawn were running lots of tests to make sure that it was working 100% before switching everything back. By 1pm we were back to normal.
Emma DS suggested emailing our clients again to let them know, which Julie was able to do for us. Michelle & I updated our social media channels.
It's now almost 8pm and I'm reflecting on the day. I'm so proud of my team! No-one panicked. No-one got stressed. We just managed the situation. We followed the plan, and it worked. It was bloody impressive!