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Family Origins
It is believed the roots of the family go back to the collapse of the Roman empire with the migration of peoples from the north of Europe to present day Italy and decended from the family Moliex that settled in Lombardy.
The name Moliex is Lombardian, and is suggested to be derived from the town of Mogilev in European Russia, on the River Dniester. Mogilev was in a territory long occupied by a people, who are said to have migrated, as the result of a famine, from Norway in the first century A.D. They left Denmark in 378 and eventually established themselves in northern Italy in A.D. 568, having conquered a kingdom there that had Pavia as its capital.
The first mention of the family is found in records at Milan, and the following genealogy of the Lombardian Moliex or Molier was obtained from a 'Conservasi nel ma gros, teatro della Nobilitta del Mondo, il sequenta framenta di Alboro Genealogica,' transcribed by Signor Vallardi, an heraldic official of Milan, for James Keir Moilliet in March, 1889. He commenced this research after finding a tomb in the crypt of Milan Cathedral that bore the family name and coat of arms. The fact of a tomb existing there shows that the family had been of some stature.
The genealogy came from Milan, but the family lived at Claremont Ferrand, in the Narbonnese, or Pay de Dome, in France, where they 'had large lands'.
Two sons of Rambaldo I, Riccardo and Giovanni II, fought in the 7th Crusade with the King of Navarre, under St. Louis of France, and during this campaign they were granted new arms -- a Swan and 3 Stars, now borne by the family. This change of arms is mentioned, and dated 1270, in a genuine and original manuscript collection belonging in 1822, to the noble house of Bonacina.
In about 1535, on the death of Francesco Sforza, the Milanese were seized by the Emporer Charles V who created an Imperial fief, and granted this to his son Philip. As a result, many of the old territorial families had to leave, their estates were confiscated, and records destroyed. Also soon after a religious persecution broke out under Carlo Borromeo, who when only twenty-one years old was made Bishop of Milan and Govenor by his uncle, Pope Pius IV, in l559.
The genealogy here recorded is all that is known of the Lombardian Moliex. All Glaremont Ferrand records appear to have perished in the French Revolution.
The family appears in Geneva
During this unsettled period, the family Moliex or Molier entirely disappeared from Lombardy, and so did this coat of a Swan and 3 Stars. Also during this period a family calling itself Moliex or Molier, and bearing arms of a Swan and 3 Stars appears first in France and soon afterwards in the Protestant state of Geneva.
The history of the family from the time of Michel of Arrache, b. 1510, is very clearly established by Genevese records of baptisms, marriages, and deaths, up to the present time. But the direct connection between the Lombardian and Genevese Moliex is lost. Michel I may have been a grandson of the sesto Riccardo (v. 1360) who was a monk but when his elder brother died without descendents he was dispensed from his vows, married a lady of noble birth, and had a large family. In addition a Michel Moliex is found in Geneva as early as 1460.
The closeness of names and the similarity of the coat of arms suggests some connection between the Lombardians and the Genevese. However the dissimilarity between the Christian names in the two families might suggest the connection was slight or indirect though there may be some simple explanation of this, such as a sudden change of religion and a desire to break with the past.
It is worth noting that the form of helmet that, according to Signor Vallardi accompanied both the old coats, was that reserved for the higher nobility.
A recent doctoral thesis by Olivier Perroux at the University of Geneva, Department of History in 2003, researched the development of the middle class in Geneva and provides a picture of the interactions between families in Geneva in the 1800th and 1900th centuries. The thesis, Tradition, vocation et progrès : les élites bourgeoises de Genève (1814-1914), describes some of the family relationships between the Moilliet and Baumgartner families. In almost 30 pages of his 337 page thesis Mr. Perroux illustrates this by following the short life of Antoine Baumgartner who possibly succombed to the presure to succeed. He also identifies a Mr. Gem as partner in the Moilliet export business in Birmingham. This detail was previously unknown in family lore.
Coming to England
Some time towards the end of May 1789, a young Swiss man named Jean-Louis Moilliet came from near Geneva and turned up at Soho House. He was equipped with credit of £10,000, and what was arguably even more valuable, a letter of introduction to Matthew Boulton. The letter was from Jean-Louis Baumgartner, an uncle Jean-Louis Moilliet. It appears that J.L. Baumgartner had already established business in both Geneva and Birmingham. The letter, in part, says:
" ... A son of my sister, who is my godson, and is known by the name John-Lewis Moilliet is to deliver you these lines, and I hope will permit me to crave for him your kind protection, should he want it by the absence or some mishap of my worthy friend Mr. Sigismund Hoofsetter. I love the lad and I think he deserves it ... "
In his usual friendly and hospitable way, Matthew Boulton introduced the young man to his circle of friends, and so Jean-Louis Moilliet met James Keir F.R.S. (.pdf file),- and more importantly still, James Keir's only child, his daughter Amelia. Keir was a founder of the chemical industry - the inventor of the first fully synthetic process for making caustic soda and a promintent member of the 'Lunar Society of Birmingham'.
The Moilliet coat of arms including the family colours of Keir of Muiston
The young Jean-Lewis settled in Birmingham where he became a merchant (and later a banker) dealing in export of Birmingham manufacture. He had previously arrived in London in 1786 but moved to Birmingham which was an important and rapidly expanding industrial area and had many commercial ties to Geneva.
(A distinguished member of the Moilliet family had made a journey to England much earlier. Le Sieur Jean-Jacques Moilliet (1548 - 1605) was an ambassador to the court of Queen Elizabeth I where he approached the Queen's court to obtain help for the protestant church in Geneva. "Le Sieur " was a title of great significance in the Genevan society.)
In 1801 Amelia Keir married Jean-Louis Moilliet at All Saint's Church, West Bromwich. Jean-Louis became a naturalised Briton, changed his name to John Lewis Moilliet (pronounced Moyliett - accent on the first syllable) and the young couple made their home for many years at Smethwick Grove. The new Moilliet family would be intertwined with the Darwins and the Galtons in later years.
John-Lewis was by no means a penniless adverturer or refugee when arriving in Birmingham for his father had provided him with working capital of £10,000 (equivalent to well over $500,000 today) to establish the 'family name' in England. These financial resources would steadily increase with his many business endeavors. It is noted in Aris's Birmingham Gasette on January 3, 1803 an announcement that suggests he had bought out his partners, Dickson and Shore, and he would continue to, "carry on the business of merchants at #3 Newhall Street".
John-Lewis continued his business, that would be referred to export/import today, with a succession of parners. He entered banking, The Birmingham and Warwichshire, in 1815 and his success is demonstrated by his swift rise from junior to senior partner and by 1840 the bank had become fully owned by his family. Sadly the economic collapse in the 1850s saw the bank later ammalgamate with other privately held banks to form Lloyds Bank.
Return to Geneva
Soon after the Napolionic wars John-Lewis Moilliet bought the Chateau de L'Imeratrice at Pregny, on Lake Geneve near the city of Geneva. As its name implies it had belonged to Empress Josephine, Napoleon's first wife. According to the diaries of John-Lewis' wife Amelia it was the centre of social and business gatherings of English and Swiss notabilities. Many of the Swiss guests belonged to families connected to the Moilliets. A few of these were Jean-Charles-Leonard Sismondi the historian and writer, Pictet the chemist and Dr. and Mrs. Jane (Haldimand) Marcet, she being the author of "Conversations on Chemistry". Visitors from England were writer Maria Edgeworth (whose father was a member of the Lunar Society), Lady Davy (wife of the chemist - Sir Humphrey Davy) the Gibbons (Midland iron founderers) and Josiah Wedgewood. Amelia's diary also records the family's involvement in England in the anti-slavery movement noting the several public meetings they arranged with Sir William Wilberforce.
Pregny remained in the family possession until the middle of the 1850s and then was sold apparently for financial reasons. Probably the same financial reality that forced the sale of the bank.
Back home in England
In 1837 John-Lewis bought the Abberley Estate from the surviving daughter of Col. Henry Bromley. She was a cousin of his daughter-in-law Lucy Harriot (Galton) wife of son James. Lucy was the daughter of Samuel Tertius Galton and she was half cousin to Charles Darwin. Her brother was Sir Francis Galton, father of modern eugenics.
John-Lewis became so captivated by the scenery around Abberley Hall that he decided to restore the house, called at the time Abberley Lodge, in the Italian style. He wished to retire there being now 67 years. He moved into the home in November 1844. However his tenure was only about 6 weeks when he died quite unexpectedly. Then on December 29th, 1845 Abberley Hall was ravished by fire. Many paintings and household valuables were lost. Mrs. Moilliet restored the structure and lived there until her death in 1857.
An interesting story associated with this event tells of the invitation of the dowager Queen Adelaide, wife of deceased King William IV and living on an estate near by, invited Amelia Moilliet (nee Keir) to stay with her until she could relocate after the fire. This situation elicited a letter from two of John-Lewis's grandchildren:
"My Dear Queen Adelaide
We are James Keir and John Lewis Moilliet & we are Grandsons of dear Grandmama Moilliet whom we love so much & have been so very unhappy for her when her house, poor Abberley was on fire & we want to tell you that we have always loved you dearly because you are so good to everyone & the poor & to schools, & have too been the Queen of England, but we love you now a thousand times better since you have been so kind to Grandmama."
"We know you my good kind Queen, though perhaps you have forgotten us but Mama took us to see you when you were going to Sir Robert Peel's about 5 years ago & we had new hats too on & you bowed and smiled at us so kindly. Please do you remember us, I hope you do for we do love you with all our hearts. We are twins so we both write & we hope you will be happy for ever & ever."
"Goodbye my dear Queen. My sisters Amy & Adele love you too, but Tertius & baby Sophia are too little."
"We send our love to you if it is not wrong or unrespectful. We are your affectionate Friends."
"James Keir Moilliet, John Lewis Moilliet"
"Selly Hall Jan/26, 1846"
(They were the 10 year old sons of James Moilliet)
John-Lewis Moilliet died a wealthy man with an estate estimated to be around a £1,000,000, equivelent to over £70,000,000 today. His will listed a formidable collection of assets: Estates at Abberley, Studley, Tamworth, Skilts and Cattax totaling 3340 acres; a half share in an iron foundry in Spon Lane, West Bromwich; a half share of the 'foreign export business' in Newhall Street, Birmingham; shares in the Birmingham, Stratford and Dudley, and the Kennet and Avon Canals; estates at Pregny-Latour and Pesay, Geneva totalling 238 acres; estate of twelve houses in Camden and Pope Streets, Birmingham; and the value of the Bank - J.L. Moilliet and Sons.
(history compiled by Captain H.M.K. Moilliet R.I.M - 1872 - 1979)
In modern times Ruth Moilliet, daughter of John Stewart (Jock) Moilliet and Janice Moilliet, has gain considerable recognition as a sculpter of works in steel inspired by flowers and seed heads. She has had several commissions of her facinating work. You can few her portfolio here.
Coming to North America
A few of the English Moilliets came out to the new world to make it on their own.
Theodore Albert (1883 - 1935), son of James Keir Molliet and Sophia Harriet Finley, came to Canada in 1899 - first to Ontario and then to British Columbia where he was joined by his uncle Hyde Finley and eventually established Aveley Ranch, a large sheep ranch in the central interior of British Columbia. He was also joined by his brother John Lewis III ( 1882 - 1917). John (Jack) was an Oxford educated school master and came first to Vancouver B.C. where he taught for a time then later joined his brother on the ranch. During the Great War Jack joined the 78th Battalion of the Canadian Seaforth Regiment and went into the war in France. His regiment was in the successful battle for Vimy Ridge where he was wounded in the jaw by shrapnel. Jack was killed in action at the battle of Camp Plane, near Vimy, June 28, 1917. The battle for Vimy had taken place just a few months previously.
Brothers Theodore Maynard and Erskine Lind came to Vancouver Island in British Columbia in the early 1900s. They were sons of Francis Albert Moilliet and Dora Maynard.
Alexander Keir (1880 - 1921), son of James Keir and brother to Theodore Albert and John Lewis III, came to Canada and then the United States. He was a medical doctor and worked for mining companies and a British petroleum company in Mexico during his short career. He is buried at Tampico, Mexico.
Alfred Moilliet (1858 - 1927), son of James and his second wife Jeannie Sayous, married Georgia Harrison Gowan in December 1881. Georgia (1862 - 1922) was born in Camden county, Georgia, U.S.A. Her mother was Elizabeth C. Evans who was born in Canada. According to the April 1881 census Alfred was living in the Rectory at Abberley with his half brother John Lewis who was the rector at St. Mary's Church. It also appears Alfred and Georgia spent some time at St. Lambert near Montreal but it is unknown how long he and his family were there. They had a daughter Katherine Laura (1882 - 1969). It is presumed the family returned to Geneva as both Georgia and Catherine died there. Georgia's father, George Harrison Gowan, is buried in Calgary, Alberta.
Theodore Francis Moilliet (1920- ) came to Canada in 1947 following the war. He served in the British military during the was but did not see action. He came first to British Columbia where his cousins lived and soon found work at the Ocean Falls lumber and pulp facility. There he met Elizabeth Marriott. They married there but in the early 1950s moved to Toronto, Ontario where Betty had a ailing relative that needed care. Tom put his industrious experience to work as a machinist with A.V. Roe Canada, aircraft manufacturer. He arrived there in time to work on the CF-105 Avro Arrow. However in 1957 he could see that a change in government that would not see a 'master piece in aircraft engineering' through to complete development so he and Betty decided to move back to Western Canada where Tom join the Royal Canadian Air Force as a aircraft engine mechanic. He was stationed in Comox BC, Calgary and Edmonton AB, during his long career with the air force. He had a tour of duty in the Middle East during one of several Canadian peace keeping missions. Tom still lives in Medicine Hat Alberta. His lovely wife, Betty, has been deceased for a couple of years.
There are a dozen or so families of Moilliets in France, many of them living near Paris. All seem to be related but it is unknown if this is a branch of the Swiss Moilliets, a small remnant of the family that is believed to have lived in Narbonnaise or a family with no connection at all to the Geneva Moilliets. Much of the history of families was destroyed during the French Revolution and the French Moilliets have not been able to trace their ancestry beyond the mid 1800s.
There are also several families with the name Molliet (missing the 'i' in the first sylable of the name). This family originates from Cournillens in Switzerland. It is a small village between the towns of Morat and Freiburg. A Molliet family historian does not believe there is any connection to the Geneva Moilliets.
To other parts of the world
John Lewis Moilliet (1803 - 1828) was the first son (second child) of Jean Louis Moilliet and Amelia Keir. His mother expressed concerns for him in her diary when he left for India in 1826. He served as a Captain in the 13th Light Dragoons. He died in India and is buried in the Protestant cemetary in Pondicherry. There is no record of his death however an historian of the Dragoons suggested John died during a cholera outbreak in the camps in 1828.
Georges Moilliet (1827 - 1926) was raised in Switzerland, educated as a structural engineer and worked in bridge building in Japan. It is believed he died there and may have left some decendants.
Gabriel Coryton Moilliet married Pamela Seton-Perry and lives in Cape Town South Africa.
( more content and links to be added )


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Hussein Mazzek (1918 à  en Libye -  à Benghazi), homme politique libyen.

Biographie
Maziq était un descendant de la famille Haddouth de la tribu Barasa vivant en Cyrénaïque , en Libye . Haddouth, qui a donné son nom à la famille, avait déjà dirigé en 1822 les Barasa. Instantanément, son fils Abubakr, prit la direction de Barasa. En 1844, l' empire ottoman le nomma Bey pour toutes les tribus Harabi (y compris Barasa et Ubaidat). Il s'était impliqué en 1860 dans la guerre Barasa-Ubaidat , mais il n'avait pas survécu avant de voir sa fin. Il s'installe à Benghazi et y meurt en 1870. Son fils Maziq hérite de la direction et de la gestion du conflit jusqu'à ce que les combattants conviennent de faire la paix en 1890.

Maziq (le grand-père de Hussein) demeura à la tête de Barasa jusqu'à sa mort, en 1909. Il avait laissé quatre fils: El Mabrouk (son héritier politique), Yousef (le père de Hussein), Bushdeig et Uroug, un poète folklorique.

Lorsque les Italiens envahirent la Libye en 1911, El Mabrouk mena les Barasa contre eux, à l'instar des chefs d'autres tribus. Il a été tué à la bataille de "Ain Bumansur" près de Derna en 1912. N'ayant pas eu d'enfants, Yousef est devenu le chef de Barasa.

Carrière politique

 Gouverneur de La Cyrénaïque ( - ).
 Ministre des Affaires étrangères de Libye ( - ).
 Premier ministre du Libye ( - ).

Liens externes

Naissance en Libye
Naissance en 1918
Décès en mai 2006
Décès à Benghazi
Personnalité politique libyenne

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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The new Ariana Grande video has been online for a short amount of time, but it's already plenty of ladies' personal anthems. Never before has a video more accurately expressed everything that's gone into growing up so far. Kris Jenner, Mean Girls references, and even Ariana Grande gifting herself a mixtape.
The overall theme of the song is incredibly positive too, which is a refreshing change from a lot of singers who write music about their exes. Ariana Grande has proved time and time again that she's not only intelligent, but she's also an amazing role model.
For some celebs it's the same story: they support their exes, say some nice things, and promise that the divorce/break up is amicable. For others, it's a whole mess that fans would be surprised ever gets sorted out.
Isn't it the same in the non-famous world, though? Sometimes people have exes that turn into amazing friends, and other times they can't help but get into social media arguments throughout the course of the breakup.
Then again, celebrities are under a microscope when it comes to making up and breaking up. Here are the celebs that, for better or for worse, can't seem to say "thank u, next" to their exes.
Justin Bieber, as we all know by now, is married to Hailey Baldwin. However, that doesn't distract from the fact that he and Selena Gomez spend years in an on-and-off relationship.
According to Elle, Bieber still cares a whole lot about Selena too.
Elle writes, "Justin Bieber has been truly, genuinely upset following the news of his ex Selena Gomez's hospitalization and decision to seek treatment." He might not be saying much, but in this case actions definitely speak louder than words. Justin Bieber still cares about Selena Gomez. Maybe not romantically, but definitely in that first-love-is-forever kind of way.
Relationships are messy, okay? Sometimes we can't help but feel a little confused by them. No matter how much we might want to share with the world that we're with someone we love, other pressures can keep us quiet and denying that we're dating anyone. That was the case with Shawn Mendes and Hailey Baldwin, the are-they-or-aren't-they couple that had us all guessing over the course of this last year. While he might have kept quiet during the actual events, Mendes is now spilling the beans about him and Baldwin. Cosmopolitan says, "Shawn is done trying to bury their relationship and told Rolling Stone it was a bit of a messy and confusing experience." Honestly, fair. We're happy that they're on better ground now!
Kourtney Kardashian is just as much in the spotlight as the rest of the Kardashian and Jenner crew. Not only is she seen on Keeping Up With the Kardashians as much as her sisters, but she's also been making headlines with her co-parent and once-upon-a-time partner Scott Disick. While Narcity goes into details on the end of her relationship with Younes Bendjima, Kourtney has been keeping a surprisingly low profile on her true feelings about it all. Hollywood Life revealed Kourtney is a little hurt by the connection Sofia and Scott have. Hey, we would be too.
Sam Smith and his partner were a literal dream, but we just have to come to terms with the fact that it's time to wake up now.
Not only does Sam Smith have his job to focus on, but he's also taking a really positive approach when discussing his ex.
Smith was dating Brandon Flynn for about nine months, having semi-recently cut things off. Refinery29 quotes him as saying, "All my relationships have ended in a nice way." Refinery29 goes on to say that he "[called] Flynn a wonderful person," proving that this is likely another nice and neat end to a loving relationship that just didn't work out.
Where to begin with this messy deconstruction of an iconic relationship? Angelina Jolie hasn't been too in the headlines, choosing instead to focus on her family and their potentially upcoming court date. The most we've seen have been headlines regarding the custody battle that the two of them are in. The Cut reminds us that these two have been in this process for at least two years now. That being said, breaking up 12 years of being together was always going to be a difficult process. Both of them have been cordial regarding discussions of each other. But the lengthy custody battle that The Cut discusses might say more about Angelina's opinions on Brad than words ever could. We sincerely hope that they work it out soon.
Brad Pitt is the other side of the Brangelina divorce saga that's been going on for years now.
He doesn't really have much to say, choosing instead to leave any and all discussion behind closed doors in the legality department.
According to The Cut, they've both been on the receiving end of court documents and requests from the other one. Outside of this, there hasn't been very much negativity spouted by either of them. The Cut also reminds us that Brad's undergone a bit of a transformation. We're hopeful that this means they can at least pursue co-parenting together after the dust of the divorce settles.
We have the goddess herself: Ariana Grande. Hearing "Thank u, next" for the first time was a revelation. Never have we ever felt more full and justified in our breakups. Being able to learn and grow from our relationships is really the key thing that Grande has hit on. Her video features her celebrating herself, as well as celebrating all those amazing teen movies we grew up loving. It's like Grande is whispering in our ear, "Love yourself. Take your pain and use it as fuel to grow and develop your gorgeous self." Don't mind if we do, Ariana. Sometimes it really is okay to say thank u, next.
13 Halsey Mentioned It In The Middle Of A Concert!
Narcity is back at it with this juicy update on Halsey's semi-recent unraveled relationship. They state that about four months ago Halsey and G-Eazy ended things. The article goes into details about her announcement, which came out during a concert she was playing in New Jersey. We're not exactly sure if she meant to talk about it, but being on stage is a vulnerable thing. We're happy that she got it off her chest, and had the support of the crowd easing her way through some of the more difficult lyrics for her to sing. She didn't have anything bad to say either. All she revealed was that she was "hurt" by someone, Narcity writes. Aww, Halsey; we're here for you!
We certainly missed it when it was happening, but Harry Styles apparently spent a year dating Camille Rowe. Eonline says that there was apparently a little cloudiness surrounding this relationship, which we think is totally fair. They never really announced it, just like how the breakup kind of flew under the radar.
Harry Styles thus demonstrates our personal favorite way to handle a breakup: let it go, don't tell anyone, and go lunch on a yacht with two good friends.
Even Taylor Swift has discussed the fact that she puts exes into her songs often. Glamour points out specifically her relationship with John Mayer, which is still more drama-filled and iconic than her relationship with Calvin Harris. It might have happened years ago, but her relationship with John Mayer is immortalized forever in her song Dear John. A little on the nose? Maybe, but the message is clear: Listening to the lyrics, we can't help but feel that Taylor Swift has every right to be hurt by the events. Most of us don't get to process our pain through music or songs. We're grateful to Swift for speaking out about what it's like to be hurt by someone when you're young.
John Mayer, on the other side of the coin, is more vocal about his exes. Harper's Bazaar outlines the fact that Mayer felt really hurt by Swift's image of him in the Dear John song.
We weren't there, so we don't have any right to comment on what happened. But it seems like there's more to this story than either of them have touched on. We'd love an update, but lately it seems like Mayer is choosing the strong and silent route.
Jenna Dewan, also known as Channing Tatum's ex-partner and total goddess, has her usual wise words of advice for us mere mortals. InStyle reports that she and Tatum aren't upset about the split. In fact she wants to remind everyone that, "it's okay for a relationship to change into a new form that is actually better for both people involved, and I think that's maybe what shocked everyone so much—that it can be a positive thing." Amen! There are definitely opportunities where the end of a relationship is actually the beginning of a beautiful, supportive friendship for all the parties involved.
It makes sense; he and ex Cheryl Cole have a new baby together. While many celebrities are doing the co-parenting thing right now, it gets remarkably harder if the two parents have any sort of negative feelings towards each other. Payne's love for Cole is still there. Billboard quotes him as saying, "I'm a bit fragile at times...No, I'm all right. You know, it's been okay. Obviously there's a lot of stuff I've still got to sort out with my life."
Sounds like this breakup was more of an internal issue than anything between the couple.
He and Cole are still on good terms, which means there's no need for any more stress, Payne! You're okay, now.
Lena Dunham is one of those stars that seems to come in and out of the public eye, but is always creating, producing, and working on a new project. She's a true artist, which is probably why she was matched so well with her recent-ex Jack Antonoff. USA Today quotes Lena Dunham as saying, on the topic of the reasons behind their breakup, "when you're sick, so much energy goes into making sure the other person is well that you're not even noticing maybe our schedules aren't compatible… Maybe we want different things out of our lives." Lena Dunham with the true facts, people. There's no animosity here; just two people that are healing.
After ages and ages of quiet deflection, Theroux is finally in a place to talk about what happened with the breakup between him and Jennifer Aniston.
We're not surprised that this took a while to get out of him; the two of them were pretty intertwined, and were even our #couplegoals at some points in the relationship.
Harper's Bazaar lists him as saying, "it's amicable. It's boring, but, you know, we respected each other enough that it was as painless as it could be." At least he's being honest. It's refreshing to have a big-name celebrity break up that isn't all hatchets and fire as well.
Oh, Shia LaBeouf. So much has been said about him over the years, but it's really what he reveals that's gotten him in varying degrees of trouble. We were actually huge fans of LaBeouf for a while. He's got energy and daring, which can result in some great projects. However, the breakup of him and his wife Mia Goth wasn't exactly clicking for us. CNN mentions that LaBeouf's representative said that the divorce was amicable. Was it? We're sure we'll find out whether it was mutual and for the best soon. After all, Shia's probably planning an art project about it as we speak.
Remember when the news broke that Iggy Azalea had started seeing someone? Like a swift gust of wind blowing out a candle, their relationship has ended.
Iggy Azalea isn't one to dwell on the negative, making her the perfect person to announce their breakup.
And how did she announce it? People says, "the 'Fancy' rapper announced that the couple had already split. 'I'm single,' Azalea wrote on social media on on Aug. 8, adding a shrugging emoji and a blushing emoji." She's not one for beating around the bush, it turns out. That's the last we've heard of this breakup too, which might be the most adult approach we've seen (even with the emojis).
Amber Rose is a powerful, outspoken woman. Initially rising up in the fame ranks with Kanye West, she ended up having one of the more negative breakups on our list. There were some allegations of dishonesty from Kanye's perspective. Despite years going by there hasn't been a whole lot of positive things shared between these exes. Glamour quotes one rude comment that Amber Rose made on Twitter as a response to something rude that Kanye said. Cryptic? Oh yeah. We don't even want to spend time thinking about it; we're thankful all the drama is over!
Recently there's been the reliving of drama on Keeping Up With the Kardashians between Khloe Kardashian and her… Not-ex? Honestly, we can't keep up. A quick Google reveals pages of Khloe Kardashian "slamming" Tristan Thompson.
Cosmopolitan says that they recently spent Thanksgiving together, though, which means that despite the harsh words, maybe they're still managing to work together.
They haven't split up yet, and we're not sure they will. According to Cosmopolitan, "it's complicated with Tristan, but he's True's dad and that's what matters most to Khloé." Hey, it wouldn't be the first time two stars decided to co-parent. Just take care of yourself, Khloe, and don't be afraid to embrace what's next.
Cassie and P Diddy were going strong for a while, but eventually it got to be too much. Page Six mentions that they had one break up in August of August of 2016, but they're finally, officially calling it off now.
Maybe it's the fact that it's still pretty raw, but Cassie and P Diddy don't really have anything to say yet; we're sure they're still waiting for the fall out to settle.
According to Page Six again Cassie did leave some cryptic messages on her stories, which is totally fair when dealing with the breakup of a long-term romantic partner. We hope that things get sorted out soon for the two stars, and that all the anger starts to settle too.


text:
Q: Método de login em Ruby Estou tentando fazer um login com Ruby, porém está apresentando o erro
undefined local variable or method `login' for #<Object:0x00000000059ccea8> (NameError)

Montei a classe:
class  Login <SitePrism::Page
    element :username_fild, "input[placeholder='Username']"
    element :password_fild, "input[placeholder='Password']"
    element :Login_buton,   "input[title='Log In']"

    def Login (nome, senha)
        username_fild.set(nome)
        password_fild.set(nome)
        Login_button.click
    end

end

e passei a variável:
Dado("que esteja na tela de cadastro do SuiteCRM") do
    Home.new.load
    @login = login.new
    @login.load
    @login.login("will","will")

  end

quando executo gera o erro:
undefined local variable or method `login' for #<Object:0x00000000059ccea8> (NameError)

Alguém consegue ajudar para solucionar esse problema?

A: Antes de começar, lembre-se de sempre seguir as guidelines e as convenções da linguagem, ainda mais ao utilizar o framework Ruby on Rails, que é conhecido pelo paradigma de design convention over configuration. Nomes de métodos sempre em snake_case_minusculo e classes/módulos em PascalCase.
Vejamos a mensagem de erro:
undefined local variable or method `login' for #<Object:0x00000000059ccea8> (NameError)

Isso quer dizer que você tentou utilizar .login em um objeto, do tipo Object, que não possui esse método. Isso gera um NameError. No seu código, pode ver que você chamou .login, onde deveria ser .Login, já que definiu dessa maneira.
E quando você instancia a classe Login, deve ser Login.new e não login.new.
Lembre-se das convenções!

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Q: Usage of `the` article in «The special attention» vs. «Special attention» Question regarding the proper usage of the definite article in English.
Which of the following sentences is correct and why:

I plan to analyse the existing approaches to supply …, both at
  national and international levels. Special attention is devoted
  to the role of cyber activity in securing state political interests
  Focus will be given to the current and planned projects for
  intergovernmental cooperation….

or

I plan to analyse the existing approaches to supply …, both at
  national and international levels. The special attention is
  devoted to the role of cyber activity in securing state political
  interests. Focus will be given to the current and planned projects for
  intergovernmental cooperation….

And one more similar case:

Among different aspects, the %name_of_the_book% clarifies the subjects of %list_of_subjects%

or

Among the different aspects, the %name_of_the_book% clarifies the subjects of %list_of_subjects%

A:
Special attention

is correct, because attention is an uncountable noun, for which you can't use a definite article.

Among different aspects

is correct, because among refers to (in the phrase itself) an undefined number of aspects.
Other context might define the group that among chooses from. In that case using the would be OK.


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The time to award excellence in marketing on social media is here. Digital Market Asia is all set with the second edition of Socialathon India 2015. This year, over 250 entries are competing for the India leg of the awards, a sharp increase from the 75 entries that were entered from India in 2014.
Socialathon India 2015 has garnered entries from 35 agencies in a span of 45 days. The pre-screening process of Socialathon India 2015 kicks off on July 14, 2015.
The Socialathon shortlist will be announced on July 30 and exemplary works in the field of social media marketing will be awarded on August 7 in New Delhi. The awards will be preceded by three insightful sessions which will highlight the attributes of social media scenario in India.
Socialathon is foraying into its second edition with the tagline 'Making the Connection Count'.
"Socialathon is a platform for pioneering minds in social media to come together and discuss the integration of brands and marketers with social media in India and how it can drive engagement in the market. Socialathon awards night will also be celebrating works that lay the benchmarks and future trends for social media marketing," said Noor Fathima Warsia, Group Editor APAC, Digital Market Asia.


text:
package org.apache.lucene.facet.search;

import java.io.IOException;

import org.apache.lucene.facet.encoding.DGapVInt8IntDecoder;
import org.apache.lucene.facet.encoding.DGapVInt8IntEncoder;
import org.apache.lucene.facet.params.CategoryListParams;
import org.apache.lucene.facet.search.FacetsCollector.MatchingDocs;
import org.apache.lucene.index.BinaryDocValues;
import org.apache.lucene.util.BytesRef;

/**
 * A {@link FacetsAggregator} which counts the number of times each category
 * appears in the given set of documents. This aggregator reads the categories
 * from the {@link BinaryDocValues} field defined by
 * {@link CategoryListParams#field}, and assumes that the category ordinals were
 * encoded with {@link DGapVInt8IntEncoder}.
 *
 * @lucene.experimental
 */
public final class FastCountingFacetsAggregator extends IntRollupFacetsAggregator {

  private final BytesRef buf = new BytesRef(32);

  @Override
  public final void aggregate(MatchingDocs matchingDocs, CategoryListParams clp, FacetArrays facetArrays)
      throws IOException {
    assert clp.createEncoder().createMatchingDecoder().getClass() == DGapVInt8IntDecoder.class
        : "this aggregator assumes ordinals were encoded as dgap+vint";

    final BinaryDocValues dv = matchingDocs.context.reader().getBinaryDocValues(clp.field);
    if (dv == null) { // this reader does not have DocValues for the requested category list
      return;
    }

    final int length = matchingDocs.bits.length();
    final int[] counts = facetArrays.getIntArray();
    int doc = 0;
    while (doc < length && (doc = matchingDocs.bits.nextSetBit(doc)) != -1) {
      dv.get(doc, buf);
      if (buf.length > 0) {
        // this document has facets
        final int upto = buf.offset + buf.length;
        int ord = 0;
        int offset = buf.offset;
        int prev = 0;
        while (offset < upto) {
          byte b = buf.bytes[offset++];
          if (b >= 0) {
            prev = ord = ((ord << 7) | b) + prev;
            assert ord < counts.length: "ord=" + ord + " vs maxOrd=" + counts.length;
            ++counts[ord];
            ord = 0;
          } else {
            ord = (ord << 7) | (b & 0x7F);
          }
        }
      }
      ++doc;
    }
  }

}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


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Rollers: 2 1/2" Dia. (small end) x 11 Ga.


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text:
Construction Problems
How a Developer Makes Friends in Germantown
Germantown Historic District, Homebuilders, Quicklink, Woodland Heights
HOW A DEVELOPER MAKES FRIENDS IN GERMANTOWN Fisher Homes owner Terry Fisher has been scuffling with city officials and residents of the Germantown Historic District over the dilapidated state of the recently renovated 104-year-old bungalow at 121 Payne St. that he bought last year, got permission for a 2-story addition, but then let sit for months with an opened-up roof protected only by a blue tarp. Fisher may have had some difficulties maintaining the sticks and stones on his property ("demolition by neglect" is how one inspector put it), but he sure has demonstrated a way with words: "The neighbors and anyone else who doesn't like me is welcome to go walk off a bridge," he reportedly texted to Woodland Heights Civic Association member David Jordan: "Just try and remember I am a property owner in that neighborhood also and I'm just as important as the others. Considering how much I own, I may be more important." The latest document attesting to that importance: the violation letter he received from the planning department ordering him to stop work on the Payne St. property and address concerns identified by the inspector. But Fisher tells reporter Erin Mulvaney his text to Jordan has been taken out of context: "God gave me two cheeks and I do what I can to turn them, but enough is enough," he tells her, explaining that he lives in Spring, rather than in the Heights, where many of his developments are, in part to avoid ending up next door to a development he doesn't like. "I have done nothing wrong," Fisher says, "I'm not just a big bad developer. I'm a human, too." But wait, there's more: "I'm not ashamed of anything, including the Payne house," says Fisher, who according to the article has been developing in Houston for more than 30 years. "At the end of the day," he tells Mulvaney, "I've never done anything intentionally wrong. Anything has been out of ignorance." [Houston Chronicle ($); previously on Swamplot] Photo of 121 Payne St. in better times: HAR
77009, Construction Problems, Developers, Fisher Homes, Germantown Historic District, Historic Preservation, Homebuilders, Maintenance, Woodland Heights
A 3-Year-Old Eastwood Foursquare Sidles Up to the Oldies
Houston Home Listing Photo of the Day: Small Appetite
roadchick May 27, 2014 at 2:13 pm
I'm sorry, but "human" and "big bad developer" are mutually exclusive terms. The irony of him living in Spring instead of the Heights so he can avoid being next to a development he doesn't like is delicious, but obviously lost on him.
mel May 27, 2014 at 2:14 pm
Terry Fisher: "I'm Not Just A Big Bad Developer." For fun, compare the photos taken before Terry Fisher's "redevelopment" (http://www.har.com/homevalue/121-PAYNE-ST-HOUSTON-TX-77009-M54693456.htm) to the photos taken after his "redevelopment" (the pictures included in the chronicle article).
ZAW May 27, 2014 at 2:32 pm
The City makes developers and their a/e teams submit Accessibility Standards and UL listings when they issue for permit. I don't understand why they don't make them either submit the Deed Restrictions and Historic District information, or a signed affidavit saying that they have researched it and found there are no Deed Restrictions or Historic Districts in place on the land. This would prevent people like Terry Fisher from claiming ignorance on these things.
I think this was suggested when they were reworking Chapter 42. I don't know what became of it. It would make it easier for the City to enforce deed restrictions where they are in place (they would have something to refer to), and it would force developers and their designers to find and abide by the restrictions.
Frank Gallagher May 27, 2014 at 2:36 pm
I thought this guy lived in a school bus and came to Houston after Ike…. He'd live in a school bus, but prefers Spring over the Heights???
Native Houstonian May 27, 2014 at 2:47 pm
The irony noted by road chick applies to developers of Ashby High Rise. They prefer to live in the comfort and legal protection of million dollar homes in the zoned cities of West University and Southside Place–yet to prefer to inflict their version of "responsible development" on citizens of Houston. Must be a developer thing–NIMBY applies to them also.
commonsense May 27, 2014 at 2:47 pm
That's brilliant, demolition by neglect. That opens up a whole new market of new construction in previously Nazi Historic Districts. Just buy it, start some work, let it rot, and then you'll have no choice but to build brand new.
Jackie May 27, 2014 at 2:59 pm
Not a level headed businessman with whom you want to entrust probably your largest single investment. Much less the place you call home. Unfortunately, he has targeted the Heights as a place to make money. Lucky for us!
Ellie Mae May 27, 2014 at 3:30 pm
So he says he's a resident of Spring but he's building a new "HOME/OFFICE" on Yale in the Heights? See earlier Swamplot article:
http://swamplot.com/a-heights-area-homebuilders-new-home-office-on-yale-st/2014-05-13/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+swamplot+%28Swamplot%3A+Houston%27s+Real+Estate+Landscape%29
Commonsense says: "That's brilliant, demolition by neglect. That opens up a whole new market of new construction in previously Nazi Historic Districts. Just buy it, start some work, let it rot, and then you'll have no choice but to build brand new." This is EXACTLY why the City needs to throw the book at Fisher Homes. A $500 a day fine, per day, each and every day, until the house is brought back into compliance is the only thing that will keep Terry Fisher/Fisher Homes and others like him in compliance.
GL May 27, 2014 at 3:59 pm
The Chronicle article say, "If he doesn't [address the problems outlined in the inspection report by Wednesday], he could face losing the right to build anything on the site for two years and being issued a citation that could lead to fines." My fingers are crossed that this happens.
rental me this May 27, 2014 at 4:08 pm
I'm no fan of Morrison Heights, but leaving that beautiful home roofless to rot is, in my view, worse. Fisher is a menace to the neighborhood and evidently quite proud of himself.
Old School May 27, 2014 at 4:24 pm
His website says he came to Houston in 2008 after building in Iowa for years. It also says he built and eventually owned property in Iowa, but came to Houston in an old school bus with only $2,500 to his name. So, what happened in Iowa that left him with just $2,500 and an old school bus? Also, would it be possible for the same circumstances to come together in Houston to put Mr. Fisher on another school bus out of town?
Progg May 27, 2014 at 4:30 pm
"Just try and remember I am a property owner in that neighborhood also and I'm just as important as the others. Considering how much I own, I may be more important."
And scene.
Michael May 27, 2014 at 4:36 pm
If he only arrived in Houston in 2008 how could he have been developing in Houston for more than 30 years?
Too bad he had to buy Payne – it was already a nice renovation. Hopefully he won't F it up with some ill-suited / massive addition for the sake for commanding $$$.
Ian May 28, 2014 at 9:14 am
That house was beautiful. This makes me sick to my stomach.
Phil May 28, 2014 at 10:40 am
ZAW wrote: "I don't understand why they don't make them either submit the Deed Restrictions and Historic District information, or a signed affidavit saying that they have researched it and found there are no Deed Restrictions or Historic Districts in place on the land. This would prevent people like Terry Fisher from claiming ignorance on these things."
On your Building Permit Application, the City DOES require a notarized affidavit that you are not violating ANY Deed Restrictions: "Even if the City issues a building permit for the Project, YOU MAY BE SUED by the City or by others if the Project violates a Deed Restriction, and a court may order you to remove all or part of the Project at your own expense." Does this ever actually happen? Doubtful.
someone who knows the truth May 28, 2014 at 1:28 pm
Since Mr Fisher is about 41 years old he started building here 30 years ago? What a prodigy!!! And he did it long distance as he moved here from Iowa about 4 years ago after he went bankrupt and left a bank holding the losses from his bad business decisions. He does not live in the Heights, just likes taking unsupecting buyers for a ride and for their money. BUYER BEWARE!
Mr Fisher has intentionally let this property rot so he could have the land for new construction and more profit. He will most likely build a hideous midrise on stilts as he has on Morrison.
@ Phil: I don't remember seeing such a thing on any of the permit applications I've filled out. Of course those have all been commercial applications so maybe it's different?
Anyway, they really should make them submit copies of the deed restrictions when they submit plans. Have them scan it and include it on sheets just like they do with UL listings. This would let the plan reviewers actually check them, instead of just taking the submitter's word for it. Plus it'd be easier to know that they aren't lying.
I agree with ZAW, 100%. If people complain that it is too onerous to have to research and attach restrictions to their applications, that is a pretty good indication (1) they do not know what (if anything) restricts their property; (2) they do not care what (if anything) restricts their property and (3) but for the city's requirement to research and attach restrictions, they never would have looked.
elseed May 29, 2014 at 1:52 am
Here comes the NIMBYs whining..
mel May 29, 2014 at 9:33 am
Reading comprehension is good. The only "NIMBY" referenced in the article or comments by anyone other than you, elseed, was to Terry Fisher, who proudly lives in Spring to avoid his and other developments. He literally does not want this type of development anywhere near his backyard, but is happy to put it in everyone else's. And, he wasn't whining, he was bragging.
@Mel
I would ignore elseed's comments. He/she just copies and pastes it from one posting to the next. It's always the same and it's never intelligent.
Houston Home Listing Photo of the Day: The Wool Studio
Needville Water Tower Will Stay Standing For Now on Account of It Might Be Covered in Lead

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
\section{Introduction}
\label{s:intro}

There is a long history of debate on whether and how to optimally adjust for baseline covariates to improve precision in randomized trials (e.g.,  \cite{Fisher1932, Robinson1991, Tsiatis2008, Zhang2008, Colantuoni2015, Europe2015, FDA_COVID}). Recently, for binary, ordinal, and time-to-event outcomes, \cite{Benkeser2020} defined several potential causal effects of interest and, for each, demonstrated the promise of covariate adjustment to improve our ability to make timely and precise inferences, without fear of bias due to regression model misspecification. Specifically, in their simulation study, covariate adjustment led to substantial gains in efficiency, translating to 4-18\% reductions in sample size for the same statistical power when there was an effect, while maintaining good Type-I error control when there was no effect.

However, \cite{Benkeser2020} only briefly discuss how to optimally select the adjustment covariates \emph{and} the ``working'' regression model that maximize precision for the effect of interest. Indeed, in their Rejoiner, the authors state, ``the variables should either be selected before the trial starts (selecting those that are most prognostic for the outcome based on prior data), or selected using the trial data based on a completely prespecified algorithm that aims to select the most prognostic variables'' \citep{Benkeser2020rejoiner}. Their recommendation to use prior data assumes the existence of such data and consistency of relationships over time and space. Likewise, their recommendation for data-adaptive selection falls short of providing a precise algorithm.

The challenge of ``how'' is further highlighted by the corresponding commentaries. Specifically, \cite{ZhangZhang2021} emphasize that using a misspecified regression model for covariate adjustment can improve efficiency ``as long as the covariates are predictive of the outcomes''. This leaves the reader wondering about the potential detriments to efficiency and Type-I error control with forced adjustment for covariates that are, in fact, not predictive of the outcome. Indeed, \cite{ZhangZhang2021} plead for further investigation into practical challenges, such as few independent units, stratified randomization, and covariate selection.

Here, we build on our previous work in Adaptive Prespecification (APS) to offer concrete solutions to these practical challenges \citep{Balzer2016DataAdapt}. In brief, our approach data-adaptively selects, from a pre-specified set, the covariates and the form of the working model to minimize the cross-validated variance estimate and, thereby, maximize the empirical efficiency.
Our approach is applicable to asymptotically linear estimators with a known influence curve and under a variety of study designs, including simple randomization, randomization within strata of baseline covariates, and randomization within matched pairs of units. Throughout we focus on a targeted minimum-loss based estimation (TMLE), which is detailed below \citep{MarkBook}.
An important advantage of TMLE, relative to estimating equations approaches, is that as a plug-in or substitution estimator, TMLE is guaranteed to respect the parameter space.

The remainder of the article is organized as follows. In Section 2, we review the implementation of TMLE to estimate effects with a binary, continuous, or counts outcome in randomized trials. We then present a novel extension of APS for trials with many randomized units. In Section 3, we present detailed simulation studies that demonstrate vastly improved performance over existing methods, especially with respect to precision. We conclude with a brief discussion, practical recommendations, and areas of future work.

\section{Methods}
\label{Methods}

In randomized trials, TMLE is a powerful approach to leverage baseline covariates for efficiency gains, while remaining robust to regression model misspecification \citep{MarkBook, Moore2009, Rosenblum2010}. For outcomes measured cross-sectionally in a trial, a point estimate of the intervention effect can be obtained from TMLE as follows.

\begin{enumerate}
    \item Let $Y$ denote the outcome of interest, $A$ be an indicator of the intervention ($A=1$ if randomized to the intervention and $A=0$ if not), and $W$ be additional baseline covariates, including those used for stratified randomization.
    \item Obtain an initial estimator of the "outcome regression", defined as the conditional expectation of the outcome $Y$ given the intervention $A$ and covariates $W$: $\mathbb{E}(Y|A,W)$.
    \item Use the fit from Step 2 to predict the outcome under the intervention  $\hat{\mathbb{E}}(Y|A=1,W_i)$ and under the control  $\hat{\mathbb{E}}(Y|A=0,W_i)$ for the $i=\{1,\ldots, N\}$ randomized units.
    \item Target the initial predictions using information in the estimated propensity score, which is the conditional probability of receiving the intervention given the covariates: $\mathbb{P}(A=1|W)$. Denote the targeted predictions $\hat{\mathbb{E}}^*(Y|A=a,W)$.
    \item Obtain a point estimate by contrasting the average of the targeted predictions under the intervention\\  $1/N \sum_{i=1}^N \hat{\mathbb{E}}^*(Y|A=1,W_i)$  with the average of the targeted predictions under the control $1/N \sum_{i=1}^N \hat{\mathbb{E}}^*(Y|A=0,W_i)$.
\end{enumerate}
Under standard regularity conditions,  TMLE is asymptotically linear, and its variance is well-approximated by the variance of its influence curve scaled by $N$ (Web Appendix A).

The algorithm is detailed in \cite{MarkBook}. For a review of TMLE and its relation to other effect estimators in randomized trials,  we refer the reader to \cite{Colantuoni2015}. If the initial estimator for the conditional mean outcome $\mathbb{E}(Y|A,W)$ is based on a ``working'' regression model with an intercept and a main term for the intervention and if the propensity score is treated as known (i.e., not estimated), then the updating step can be skipped \citep{Rosenblum2010}. Further precision can be attained by using a prespecified, data-adaptive algorithm for initial estimation of the outcome regression and for ``collaborative'' estimation of the propensity score, as described next.

\subsection{Adaptive Prespecification (APS)}

\cite{Rubin2008} proposed the principle of empirical efficiency maximization to optimize precision and, thus, power in randomized trials. Briefly, to pick the ``best'' estimator, we use as loss function the squared influence curve for the TMLE of the target parameter. Building on this principle and motivated by the SEARCH community randomized trial ($N=32$),
\cite{Balzer2016DataAdapt} proposed and evaluated Adaptive Prespecification (APS) as a way to select the optimal adjustment set in trials with few randomized units.

APS requires prespecification of the set of baseline covariates expected to be prognostic of the outcome; the empty set $\emptyset$ is also considered as candidate. As originally formulated, this set was converted into candidate estimators of the outcome regression by considering  ``working'' GLMs with an intercept, a main term for the intervention $A$, and at most one adjustment variable. Likewise, as candidate estimators of the propensity score, we considered working logistic regressions with an intercept and at most one adjustment variable. Next, using leave-one-out cross-validation, we selected the combination of estimators of the outcome regression and propensity score that maximize efficiency. To do so, we used as the loss function the squared influence curve of  the TMLE for the effect of interest. The expectation of this loss function was the variance of the TMLE.

To optimize APS for trials with many randomized units, we now propose and evaluate the following modifications. First, instead of adjusting for at most one covariate in working GLMs, we propose adjusting for multiple baseline covariates in more flexible algorithms, such as stepwise regression, penalized regression, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). The expanded set of candidate estimators would be applied to estimation of both the outcome regression and the propensity score.  Additionally, for sample-splitting, we propose using $V$-fold cross-validation, instead of leave-one-out cross-validation, vastly improving computational efficiency in large samples.
As before, we use as the loss function the squared influence curve for the TMLE of the target parameter of interest and select the combination of estimators of the outcome regression and propensity score that maximizes empirical efficiency

In practice, selection occurs in two steps. First, we select the candidate estimator of the outcome regression that minimizes the cross-validated variance estimate. Next, we select the candidate estimator of the propensity score that further minimizes the cross-validated variance when used to target initial predictions from the previously selected outcome regression estimator. Together, the two selected estimators form the optimal TMLE,
which is then refit using all the data to obtain point and variance estimates. A cross-validated variance estimate is also conveniently available and maybe preferable if there are concerns about over-fitting.

APS can be considered an extension of Collaborative-TMLE using a cross-validation selector (a.k.a., discrete Super Learner) to maximize precision in randomized trials.
In the small trial setting, substantial precision gains from APS have repeatedly been demonstrated in simulations and with real data \citep{Balzer2016DataAdapt,  Benitez2021}. For example, in the SEARCH study ($N=32$), we found that the variance of the unadjusted effect estimator was 4.6 times that of TMLE with APS  \citep{Balzer2021twostage}. Using simulations, we now examine the performance of our proposed modification to APS for large trial settings.

\section{Simulation Study}
\label{Sec:sims}

To address the persistent concerns about adjustment with non-linear models, highlighted by \cite{LaVange2021}, we explore a variety of data generating processes, including those with higher order interactions and non-linear link functions. We also evaluate the performance with simple randomization and stratified randomization. Our focus is on estimating the sample effect; however, as previously discussed, our approach is easily generalized to other asymptotically linear estimators with known influence curves, such as TMLE for the population effect or the conditional effect.

\subsection{Data generating processes}

Throughout, we consider a trial with $N=500$ participants, whose data are simulated as follows. First, 5 baseline covariates are generated as
$W_1 \sim Bern(p=0.5)$, $W_2 \sim Bern(p=0.2W_1)$, $W_3 \sim Unif(0,5)$, $W_4=logit^{-1}(-2+W_1+W_2+ Unif(0,2))$, and $W_5=1+Binom(3, p=0.3)$. Then, we generate unmeasured outcome variation as $U_Y \sim Unif(0,.5)$ and, finally, the continuous, counterfactual outcomes $Y(a)$ in 3 settings of increasing complexity:
\begin{enumerate}
    \item ``Linear'': $Y(a) = 90 + 0.5a + 4W_1 + 3W_2 + 2W_3 + 3W_4 + 4W_5 + 0.75aW_1 + U_Y$
 \item ``Interactive'':  $Y(a) = 150 + 0.1a + W_1 - W_2 + 4W_3 - W4 + W5 + 0.1aW_1 + 0.1aW_3 +aU_Y/3$
\item ``Polynomial'':  $Y(a) = 90 + a + 4(W_1+W_2+W_3+W_4+W_5) - W_1 W_3 + W_1(20-15W_4) W_3 + (1-W_1)(-20+ 15W_4) + U_Y$
\end{enumerate}
Using these counterfactual outcomes, we calculate the true value of the sample average treatment effect \\ (SATE)=$1/N \sum_i Y_i(1) - 1/N \sum_i Y_i(0)$. As detailed in Web Appendix B, we also consider a binary outcome, generated under 3 settings of increasing complexity. For the binary endpoint, we focus on the relative scale, specifically, the sample risk ratio (RR)=$1/N \sum_i Y_i(1) \div 1/N \sum_i Y_i(0)$.
In each setting, we generate the observed treatment $A$ using simple randomization and randomization within strata defined by $\mathbbm{1}(W_1>0)$. Finally, we set the observed outcome $Y$ equal to the counterfactual outcome $Y(a)$ when the observed intervention $A=a$.

Over 500 simulated trials, we compare the practical performance of the unadjusted estimator, fixed adjustment for $W_1$ in the outcome regression, TMLE with APS tailored for small trials, and TMLE with our novel modification of APS for larger trials. In the small sample version, we limit the candidate estimators for the outcome regression and propensity score to ``working'' GLMs with at most 1 adjustment covariate, selected from $\{W_1, W_2, W_3, W_4, W_5, \emptyset\}$. In the new large sample approach, we apply APS to select from an expanded set of candidate algorithms: ``working'' GLMs with at most 1 adjustment covariate, a main terms GLM adjusting for all the baseline covariates, stepwise regression, stepwise regression with all possible pairwise interactions, LASSO, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and the unadjusted estimator. Both implementations of APS used 5-fold cross-validation. Inference for all estimators was obtained via the estimated influence curve.

For performance criteria, we examine the 95\% confidence interval coverage, attained power, bias, variance and mean squared error (MSE). Following \cite{Benkeser2020}, we also provide the relative efficiency, calculated as the MSE of a covariate-adjusted estimator divided by the MSE of the unadjusted effect estimator, as well as an estimate the potential savings in sample size, calculated as one minus the relative efficiency. Computing code to implement these estimators and replicate the simulation study is publicly available at \\ \url{https://github.com/LauraBalzer/AdaptivePrespec}.

\subsection{Results}

For the continuous outcome, Table~\ref{Table:ContEffect} compares estimator performance under the 3 data generating processes and 2 randomization schemes. For a given setting and estimator, little practical difference in estimator performance was observed between trials using simple randomization versus randomization within strata of $W_1$. All estimators maintained good to conservative 95\% confidence interval coverage. In some, but not all scenarios, fixed adjustment for $W_1$ improved power over the unadjusted estimator.

In all scenarios, TMLE using APS for larger trials dramatically improved power over all other approaches. As expected, the selection of estimators for the outcome regression and propensity score varied by data generating process (Table~\ref{Table:ContSelect}). The gains in precision from using LASSO and MARS for estimation of the outcome regression are evidenced by the relative efficiency, which ranged from 0.026 to 0.008. This roughly translates to $>95\%$ savings in sample size from using TMLE, instead of the unadjusted effect estimator. Additionally, for a fixed sample size, substantial improvements in precision  are illustrated in Figure~\ref{f:CIgrid}, plotting the 95\% confidence intervals for each algorithm over the 500 simulated trials.

 The  gains from TMLE with the small-trial APS were less extreme, but still notable (relative efficiency: 0.061-0.836).

\begin{table}
\caption{Estimator performance with the continuous outcome: ``DGP'' denotes the data generating process; ``Cover.'' denotes the 95\% confidence interval coverage; ``MSE'' denotes mean squared error; ``Var.'' denotes the variance of the point estimates, and ``Rel.Eff.'' denotes relative efficiency, approximated by the ratio of the MSE of a given estimator to that of the unadjusted estimator. The average value of the sample average treatment effect (SATE) is 0.87 in the Linear setting, 0.48 in the Interactive setting, and 1.0 in the Polynomial setting. ``Fixed'' refers to forced adjustment for $W_1$ in the outcome regression, ``Small APS'' to TMLE with the small-trial implementation of Adaptive Prespecification (APS), and ``Large APS'' to TMLE with the large-trial implementation of APS.}
\label{Table:ContEffect}
\centering
\begin{tabular}{l l l llllll}
  \hline
DGP & Design & Estimator & Cover. & Power & MSE & Bias & Var. & Rel.Eff. \\
  \hline
Linear & Simple & Unadjusted & 0.952 & 0.440 & 0.236 & -0.024 & 0.237 & 1.000 \\
  & & Fixed & 0.948 & 0.538 & 0.177 & -0.007 & 0.178 & 0.751 \\
  & & Small APS & 0.956 & 0.584 & 0.147 & -0.019 & 0.147 & 0.622 \\
  & & Large APS & 0.978 & 1.000 & 0.004 & -0.010 & 0.004 & 0.016 \\
  & Stratifed & Unadjusted & 0.982 & 0.426 & 0.165 & -0.020 & 0.165 & 1.000 \\
  & & Fixed & 0.958 & 0.528 & 0.164 & -0.019 & 0.164 & 0.995 \\
  & & Small APS & 0.996 & 0.650 & 0.088 & -0.011 & 0.088 & 0.533 \\
  & & Large APS & 0.976 & 1.000 & 0.004 & -0.010 & 0.004 & 0.024 \\
Interactive & Simple & Unadjusted & 0.942 & 0.154 & 0.290 & -0.007 & 0.291 & 1.000 \\
  & & Fixed & 0.944 & 0.154 & 0.287 & -0.005 & 0.288 & 0.991 \\
  & & Small APS & 0.966 & 0.910 & 0.020 & -0.000 & 0.020 & 0.067 \\
  & & Large APS & 0.970 & 0.996 & 0.003 & -0.007 & 0.003 & 0.010 \\
  & Stratified & Unadjusted & 0.936 & 0.162 & 0.313 & 0.019 & 0.313 & 1.000 \\
  & & Fixed & 0.936 & 0.166 & 0.313 & 0.019 & 0.313 & 1.000 \\
  & & Small APS & 0.968 & 0.918 & 0.019 & -0.005 & 0.019 & 0.061 \\
  & & Large APS & 0.974 & 1.000 & 0.003 & -0.000 & 0.003 & 0.008 \\
Polynomial & Simple & Unadjusted & 0.948 & 0.064 & 5.930 & -0.161 & 5.916 & 1.000 \\
  & & Fixed & 0.964 & 0.130 & 2.051 & -0.024 & 2.054 & 0.346 \\
  & & Small APS & 0.972 & 0.110 & 1.842 & -0.026 & 1.845 & 0.311 \\
  & & Large APS & 0.932 & 0.984 & 0.058 & -0.043 & 0.056 & 0.010 \\
 & Stratified & Unadjusted & 1.000 & 0.012 & 2.183 & -0.005 & 2.188 & 1.000 \\
  & & Fixed & 0.934 & 0.120 & 2.169 & -0.003 & 2.174 & 0.994 \\
  & & Small APS & 0.956 & 0.088 & 1.830 & -0.027 & 1.833 & 0.838 \\
  & & Large APS & 0.942 & 0.978 & 0.057 & -0.045 & 0.056 & 0.026 \\
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}

\begin{table}
\caption{Proportion of times (\%) a candidate algorithm was selected for estimation of the outcome regression (``Outcome'') and the propensity score (``Pscore'') in the large-trial APS in the continuous outcome setting. ``DGP'' refers to the data generating process. The candidate algorithms include the unadjusted estimator (``unadj''), working GLMs adjusting for at least 1 covariate (``glm''), stepwise regression (``step''), stepwise regression with all possible pairwise interactions (``step.int''), LASSO, and MARS.}
\label{Table:ContSelect}
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rllrrrrrr}
  \hline
Target & DGP & Design & unadj & glm & step & step.int & LASSO & MARS \\
  \hline
Outcome & Linear & Simple & 0 & 0.4 & 0 & 0 & 56.8 & 42.8 \\
   &  & Stratified & 0 & 0.6 & 0 & 0 & 55.8 & 43.6 \\
   & Interactive & Simple & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 71 & 29 \\
   & & Stratified & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 71.8 & 28.2 \\
   & Polynomial & Simple & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 100 \\
   & & Stratified & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 100 \\
Pscore & Linear & Simple & 61.8 & 37.8 & 0 & 0.4 & 0 & 0 \\
   & & Stratified & 62.6 & 37.2 & 0 & 0.2 & 0 & 0 \\
   & Interactive & Simple & 52.8 & 46.8 & 0 & 0.4 & 0 & 0 \\
   &  & Stratified & 57.4 & 42.4 & 0 & 0.2 & 0 & 0 \\
   & Polynomial & Simple & 28.6 & 70 & 0 & 1.4 & 0 & 0 \\
   &  & Stratified & 30 & 68.8 & 0 & 1.2 & 0 & 0 \\
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}

    \includegraphics[width=.64\linewidth]{Figs/contY_EffectTRUE_N500_V5_marsTRUE_nReps500_stratifyFALSE_typenoisy_linear_1.eps}

    \includegraphics[width=.64\linewidth]{Figs/contY_EffectTRUE_N500_V5_marsTRUE_nReps500_stratifyFALSE_typenoisy_multicollinear_cand1.eps}

    \includegraphics[width=.64\linewidth]{Figs/contY_EffectTRUE_N500_V5_marsTRUE_nReps500_stratifyFALSE_typenoisy_polynomial.eps}

\caption{Over 500 iterations of the simulations with a continuous outcome and simple randomization under the Linear (top), Interactive (middle), and Polynomial (bottom) data generating processes, the 95\% confidence intervals when using the unadjusted estimator (purple; Y-axis 1-500), fixed adjustment for $W_1$ (blue; Y-axis 501-1000), the small-trial  APS (green; Y-axis 1001-1500), and the large-trial APS (red; Y-axis 1501-2000). The black line is the null value.}
\label{f:CIgrid}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

Estimator performance with a binary outcome and targeting the sample risk ratio was similar (Web Appendix C.1). Again, TMLE with the large-trial APS achieved the highest power in all scenarios. Its relative efficiency varied from 0.63 to 0.51, roughly translating to 37-49\% savings in sample size.  As before, the  gains from TMLE with the small-trial APS were less extreme, but still notable (relative efficiency: 0.68-0.81).
Importantly, for both the continuous and binary outcome settings, these precision improvements were achieved, while maintaining good-to-conservative Type-I error in nearly all settings (Web Appendix C.2) and with fewer randomized units (Web Appendix C.3).

\section{Discussion}
\label{s:discuss}

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency endorse adjustment for baseline covariates to improve precision and, thereby, power in randomized trials \citep{Europe2015, FDA_COVID}. Nonetheless, explicit guidance on how to optimally select and incorporate the adjustment variables has been lacking. Indeed, the challenges to practical implementation were discussed in  \cite{Benkeser2020} and the accompanying commentaries.
For trials with limited numbers of randomized units ($N<40)$, \cite{Balzer2016DataAdapt} addressed this gap with \emph{Adaptive Prespecification} (APS), which selects the adjustment strategy maximizing the empirical efficiency of TMLE. To avoid overfitting with small sample sizes, APS previously limited adjustment to at most 1 covariate in working GLMs for the outcome regression and the known propensity score.

Here, we proposed and evaluated an extension of APS for trials with many randomized units. Specifically, we incorporated adjustment of multiple variables in more flexible algorithms, such as LASSO and MARS. As before, we used sample-splitting to select the optimal combination of estimators that minimize the cross-validated variance estimate.
Our simulation studies demonstrated the promise of our approach to improve precision and power - equivalent to $>$30\% potential savings in sample size. These gains were seen across  a variety of data generating processes, for both binary and continuous outcomes, and for both absolute and relative effects. Indeed, a strength of our approach is that covariate adjustment is tailored to the target parameter of interest. Additionally, as demonstrated here and previously \citep{Balzer2016DataAdapt, Balzer2021twostage, Benitez2021}, our approach is responsive to the randomization scheme. A general \texttt{R} package for implementing TMLE in randomized trials is underway: \url{https://github.com/LauraBalzer/tmle4rcts}.

 We have the following recommendations when implementing APS in practice. First, consider a diverse set of candidate estimators. To prevent forced adjustment for variables detrimental to precision, always include the unadjusted estimator and working GLMs adjusting for 1-2 covariates. As shown here, including candidates that flexibly adjust multiple covariates, while satisfying the usual regularity conditions, can lead to substantial gains in precision (Figure~\ref{f:CIgrid}). If inclusion of more aggressive methods, such as tree-based approaches, is desired,  a cross-validated variance estimate is readily available.
 Second, we recommend increasing the number of folds as the number of randomized units decreases.
 Finally, to guide selection of the candidates, the cross-validation scheme, and variance estimation,  we recommend conducting a simulation study, reflecting the nuances of the real data application.

There are several limitations to our work. First, we focused on outcomes measured cross-sectionally; extensions are needed for more complex settings, such as differential measurement and for time-to-event outcomes subject to right-censoring. Second, we only evaluated performance using simulations; whether or not TMLE with the large-trial APS offers such dramatic precision gains in real-data applications remains to be seen.
Finally, as currently implemented, APS uses a cross-validation selector (a.k.a., discrete Super Learner) to choose the single best estimator of the outcome regression and the single best estimator of the propensity score. We are working to extend APS to select the optimal convex combination of candidate estimators.
Nonetheless, we believe TMLE with APS, as currently implemented, is a powerful and under-utilized tool for optimal covariate adjustment in randomized trials.

\section*{Acknowledgements}
This work was supported, in part, by the National Institutes of Health
(NIH; U01AI150510,
2R01AI074345-10A1) and  DARPA (HR001120C0031).
We also thank Drs. Alan Hubbard, Maya Petersen, and Mark van der Laan for their thoughtful feedback. Any opinions, findings, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NIH or the United States Air Force.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaArXiv


Moving can be a stressful time, so planning ahead can help to make the process smoother. Once a home seller has a moving date in mind, then it is time to organize the move and make decisions if a seller will be using a moving company or planning the move on their own.
Although moving can be stressful, it is also exciting to embark upon the next phase with a new home! Each day we are bombarded with messages on how to simplify our lives and slow down. What better way to achieve this than a fresh start with a new move, along with less stuff! Whether a home seller is moving to a new home out of the area or a condo, planning will simplify the move.
Once there is a moving date, then it is time to make decisions about how the move will be done. There are considerations as to whether or not to hire professional movers, utilize a container for storage, or do it yourself. Usually, there is some compromise and some combination of moving between using a professional and DIY. Often times, it is important to pack valuable and fragile items to ensure their safety.
There is no better time to clean out and declutter mercilessly prior to a move! It is important to not keep unnecessary stuff which can just weigh a person down! Keep the sentimental items and those can be packed and labeled. Cleaning out drawers, closets and getting rid of old linens.
Old linens and towels which are not going to be utilized can be donated to pet shelters. There is a wildlife sanctuary local to this area, which always appreciates donations such as towels and linens.
It costs money to move items, so the fewer items that are moved, the less it will cost. Consider selling items that you no longer need on eBay or other sites. Garage sales are a great way to get rid of items, however, they are not always the best return on your investment! And there is always the option of donation.
Start about eight weeks out and create a packing list. After items have been purged there will be less to pack. Keep a binder or folder with important documents such as insurance papers, mortgage information, moving estimates and more.
If the home that a person is moving to does not have appliances such as a refrigerator or washer/dryer, then it is a good time to order those and have them ready for delivery prior to the move in date for convenience if possible.
Make an inventory of items that you are moving, and keep track of the items on a spreadsheet!
About six weeks prior to your move, contact professional movers to obtain a quote and make a decision as to which mover will be under contract. Consider if a specialty mover may be needed for large items such as a Grand Piano. If a seller has a safe for valuables or for firearms, it is important to check with the mover if they move those items or if there are additional fees.
Ensure the moving company has insurance, and keep a record of that as well. This is also a good time to schedule turning on the utilities and scheduling a change of address.
Begin packing boxes so that it is not a last-minute effort to pack all the boxes just a few days before the move. It is not recommended to pack the daily essentials, but other items can be boxes and labeled!
A variety of supplies is needed for moving including different size boxes, tape, scissors, box cutter to open boxes, sharpie permanent markers, bubble wrap for the fragile items and paper to wrap items. Wrapping fragile items or kitchen items with kitchen towels, or other linens to help to keep them secure, and utilizing towels will cut down on the expense of bubble wrap.
Other items needed include labels to write on, and depending upon the size of the home, color coding each room can be beneficial and streamline which room movers will move the boxes. Ensuring that the boxes are labeled clearly with the location and what items are inside is helpful!
For personal valuables such as jewelry and other items, it is in the seller's best interest to pack that themselves, and they should also pack all their own toiletries and prescription medication.
Moving with pets also need to be planned. The day of the actual move, it might be in the pet's best interest to board them for the day. Having movers and unfamiliar people in their domicile can create stress for the pet. During the actual move, putting the dog or cat in a crate crating the dogs or cats is recommended, because it is safer for them. Ensure there are sufficient food and bottled water for them as well.
Also, planning for exotic pets needs to be planned as well. Exotic birds may need a travel cage and have their food and bottled water too.
Having cleaning supplies and a kit to clean the home after the moving is beneficial. Floor cleaner, vacuum, mop, and other cleaning supplies so that the home is ready for a new buyer to take possession! Keeping the utilities on until the seller has moved or can be coordinated with the new buyer moving to the home.
Even thinking of moving can be stressful, because of the amount of work that it requires. Planning the move ahead of time will help to alleviate stress and knowing what to expect about two months out can help to organize and reduce the amount of stress!
Find Other Valuable Resources for "8 Tips to Plan a Stress-Free Move" from Real Estate Professionals Across the Country. Please check out the articles below, and please share across Social Media if you liked the articles.
The above real estate article "8 Tips to Plan a Stress-Free Move" was written by Sharon Paxson of Newport Beach Real Estate. With combined experience since 2005 with representing sellers, buyers, landlords, and tenants, we welcome the opportunity to share our knowledge and expertise and guide you through your real estate transaction.
Moving can be a stressful time, so planning ahead can help to make the process smoother.