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Trattoria Buono! #77 (2014.09.20)
By Skoban | September 25, 2014
♪ Buono! – Mirai Drive ♪
Momoko announces that September 20th is 'Sora no Hi', literally 'Sky Day', or alternatively, 'Aviation Day'. It's in commemoration of the first flight over the skies of Tokyo, made in a blimp developed by Yamada Isaburo.
Momoko starts putting on airs, going 'Ah, that Yamada-san', acting like she's familiar with the name. The other two join her in hamming it up, praising this Yamada-san, though it's not that showy Yamada. Airi then slips up while trying to make a My Neighbours the Yamadas reference.
Momoko (teasingly): Thank you very much for that one slip-up today.
The discussion starts with Momoko pointing out that they often ride aeroplanes due to their line of work, so she'd like to know if the others are good or bad with flights.
Momoko: I'm bad with them.
Miyabi: I'm bad with them too.
Airi: I'm okay.
Airi asks Momoko to explain what she means by being 'good with flights'. Momoko asks Airi if she finds the rumbling of the plane scary, but Airi finds it enjoyable. Airi shares a story of her sitting in the seat closest to the emergency exit, with the seat for cabin attendants right in front of her. While she was sitting there, she was handed a piece of paper informing her that in case of an emergency, she should assist others in leaving the plane, and that she would be last person to leave the plane.
Airi: I thought I would die.
Being in that situation, she paid a lot more attention to the flight safety explanation, double checking everything and seriously reading the safety pamphlet. Momoko suggests that people who sit in those seats must feel a great sense of responsibility.
Momoko finds that she can't handle it when the pressure drops, finding it painful.
Momoko: It hurts – but you know, then I think about wanting to meet the fans as soon as possible.
Airi: Hmmmnnnhhh~
Momoko: …
Miyabi: *muffled giggling*
Momoko: Thank you very much for the second slip-up.
♪ Music ♪
Discussion topic: A hobby that I got into once I grew up.
In the sense that these hobbies may not have been interesting when they were young, but became an activity of interest after they had turned into adults. After all, all three of them are legally adults. In Airi's case, one of her goals when she turned twenty was to go to a Japanese bar and have mackerel there. In her mind, she had imagined it being delicious.
Airi: So I ate some.
Momoko: How was it?
Airi: It was normal.
Miyabi: No way. I had some super delicious mackerel the other day.
Airi explains that it was delicious, but she was expecting something way more amazing. Miyabi describes the mackerel she had – it was amazing, it was nice and plump, it had two backbones instead of the usual single spine. This statement about the number of backbones has the other two pretty surprised. Airi finds it somewhat scary, while Momoko double-checks with Miyabi, to make sure that it was a mackerel. Miyabi insists that it was a mackerel and shows them a photo of it. Both Momoko and Airi agree that it looks like a normal mackerel. Momoko suggests that perhaps it might look as if it had two backbones when spread open, with Airi adding in that mackerels in boxed lunches were prepared in the same way.
An example of a mackerel that's prepared for cooking – note the 'two' back bones
Miyabi then starts looking it up, and Momoko suggests she look up mackerel on Wikipedia.
Momoko: Apologies about this slight interruption. But Natusyaki Miyabi is studying up on mackerel with everything she's got.
Airi: Perhaps it'll make all the listeners feel like having mackerel tonight.
Momoko then suggests Miyabi look up the keywords 'Mackerel Bone Two' in Google, while Airi suggests that 'mackerel number of bones' might be a better search keyword. However, the link that Miyabi opens is from Cookpad, a Japanese cooking recipe site. This bewilders Momoko.
http://helloproradio.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/torabuono77.mp3
Momoko: With the frying pan… Why do you have Cookpad open? (start laughing) Why do you have Cookpad open!?
Miyabi: I use Cookpad often.
Momoko: It's not like we're trying to find out how to cook up an excellent mackerel.
Airi: I want to know, I want to know~ ♪
Miyabi explains that she wanted to compare photos, and the image on the site looked like it had two bones as well. But no, Momoko tells her that mackerel always looks like that. According to Airi, if you're lucky, the bone might not be stuck to one side. 'But that's more to do with how it's prepared,' Momoko quips.
Miyabi: Is that so? So it was just normal.
Momoko does tell her that she should still treasure that way of finding joy in small things. Miyabi still seems a bit startled, since she thought it was something special. Momoko starts trying to explain deeper but ends up making it even more muddled, and as Airi tries to correct Momoko, Miyabi gets fed up and goes, 'That's enough'.
Miyabi: Okay, I got it.
Momoko: Sorry.
Miyabi: It's all right.
Momoko: Mackerel looks like it has two bones. (The girls giggle) And the mackerel that Miya ate was most likely…
Airi: A normal mackerel.
Miyabi: That's it. I've realised it now. I'll delete this.
Momoko and Airi persuade her to keep the photo, as a memory. Momoko sums up by saying that even though there are some hobbies that people start enjoying as they grow older, like golf or drinking at a bar or going for a drive, she's found that the hobby that brings her the greatest joy is being able to learn new things.
Momoko: And today we were taught by Miya. Thank you.
Airi: Thank you.
Miyabi: You're welcome.
Momoko: Everyone, without being pretentious, without forgetting to take photos, please enjoy your hobbies.
Secret voice note
Situation: This week's note comes from a 21 year old guy in university who had always aimed to become a comedian, since he was in primary school. But his dream got knocked down recently when he tried putting on a comedy act with his best friend at his university club and it turned out pretty badly. Not a single one of his jokes received even a chuckle. He asks if he should give up his dreams and start looking for work, or should he continue to chase after his dreams and aim to be a comedian. 'What should I do? Please tell me directly!'
Momoko: 'What should I do? Please tell me directly!'
Miyabi: This is one for Suzuki-san.
Momoko: Go ahead.
Airi (resolutely): Give up.
Airi says that she has two friends who were aiming to be comedians. One of them got scouted and is now working hard at it, while the other decided to give up. 21 is a critical age, after all. She explains that the world of comedy is a difficult one, and just because you think you're funny doesn't mean that your jokes would be well received. Airi thinks that while it may be cool to say that you're chasing after your dreams, if he thinks about his future realistically and finds it impossible, he'll probably decide that he should quit.
Momoko suggests that it might be his comedy partner, but Airi points out that the listener wrote that his partner was his best friend. Momoko has no idea what to add beyond that. Miyabi suggests that he try it for another year or two, but Airi notes that it's about crunch time to look for employment. They start talking about how a university club consists of a small group of friends, and marvel at how professional comedians are watched by great numbers of people. After all, they have to get laughs, no matter what. They continue to heap praise on comedians, and how difficult their lives must be.
Airi: Well, I told him to give up, but if he really wants to do it, he should. Honestly, he shouldn't listen to others.
Momoko: Oh!
Miyabi: How cool.
Momoko: You came up with some wise words!
Momoko notes that Airi's on fire today, perhaps spurred on by Miyabi's mackerel incident. Airi mentions that she's made space for mackerel in her tummy.
Miyabi: You'll be able to have two backbones.
Momoko: Ah, no, you won't.
Momoko sums up, that just as Airi said, they understand the feeling of wanting to get some advice, but the decision has to come from within himself in the first place. But if he's worrying alone, he should talk with his best friend, his partner for support.
♪ Buono! – co・no・mi・chi ♪
Category: Trattoria Buono! Tags: Natsuyaki Miyabi, Suzuki Airi, Tsugunaga Momoko
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Joyce confident regions will get survey
Sun, 10 September 2017 7:22AM
Camera IconBarnaby Joyce expects rural Australia to have a say in the same-sex marriage survey.
Barnaby Joyce is confident people in the bush will get their chance to vote in the same-sex marriage survey after his Nationals colleagues raised questions about Australia Post's delivery standards in rural and regional areas.
"Obviously I can't give 100 per cent that nothing will go wrong, but I'm overwhelmingly confident that we will have this form delivered, and the Australian people will have their say," he told ABC television from the Nationals' conference in Canberra on Sunday.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will start mailing out the survey this week and all forms are to be returned within four week on November 7.
The result of the survey will be announced on November 15, followed by a vote in parliament on a private member's bill if there is a majority "yes" result.
The survey forms will include the question "Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?" and voters will tick a "yes" or "no" box.
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Astronomers using the Herschel Space Observatory and Plank satellite, plus University of Arizona observatories, discover likely precursors of the galaxy clusters we see today and reveal glimpses into how galaxies like our Milky Way came to be.
Researchers identify the best Type Ia supernovae for gauging cosmic distances, potentially improving these measurements with a precision of more than two times that achieved before, up to six billion light-years away. These findings will help light the way to understanding dark energy.
NASA announced Wednesday its planned mission to redirect an asteroid to an orbit near the moon for visits by astronauts will not bring back an entire object, but will instead retrieve a sizable boulder from an asteroid's surface.


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Tag: Sonny Gray
Trade: Evil Otters | TBD
TBD trades away
Upton, Justin ($56+)
Mountcastle, Ryan (ML)
Jordan's thoughts: Upton is a tiny stretch at the 50 dollar plus mark for his 850 points last year and 808 point projection next year. The projection does seem oddly pessimistic for the 31-year-old outfielder. Anything like 2017 or even 2018 with a few more games played and he's easily worth the auction price tag.
Mountcastle is the number 2 prospect for one of the worst farm systems in the majors. He's likely to make it at some point. He did hit a decent 121 wRC+ in AA as a 21-year-old last season. I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles give him a shot in 2019, but he seems years away from being meaningfully useful.
I like this trade for TBD more so than Evil Otters. I get what Otters is doing and spending a slight premium for an All-Star capable of being great again isn't a bad idea. I just have experience the with Upton brothers and I would rather miss on them.
Hustle's Toxic $.02: Let us take a trip down Mountcastle Lane
Team Hydra trades away
2018 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Team Hydra)
Mountcastle, Ryan
Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
2017 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Preseason Double Stuffs)
Gray, Sonny
Capital City Ironmen trades away
Manaea, Sean
Wong, Connor
Chirinos, Yonny
Bieber, Shane
Diaz, Yusniel
Godley, Zack
Death, Taxes, Trading for Ryan Mountcastle. A Dynasty Grinders tradition like no other. Owned my nearly 1/3 of the league. In the hearts of 16/16 teams. His quest to the majors is a journey we are now all invested in.
I like this trade for the team that won't name itself. They were going to cut Upton and find themselves in a rare position of not having prospects, so they picked up on who should certainly be owned. Well at least they think he should be owned, and the 4 previous owners did too.
I also like this trade for Kyle. I'm sure if Bailey would be writing this review he'd give much praise to Kyle for being competitive and buying. He'd have some sort of snarky remark about how more teams are tanking than competing. Me on the other hand? I take some weird glee in watching the auction get weaker and weaker.
"But Hustle, Mike Leake went for $35 dollars last year, do you really want to see that happen?"
"No little Jimmy…I want to see him go for $55"
Author Jordan GillisPosted on November 29, 2018 November 29, 2018 Categories TradesTags Capital City Ironmen, dynasty, Evil Otters, Justin Upton, Mike Leake, Preseason Double Stuffs, Review, Ryan Mountcastle, Sonny Gray, TBD, Team hydra, Yusniel Diaz, Zack Godley
From worst to first
Per Dan Beachler's request, here is a "how I went from worst to first" post. I suppose technically I wasn't worst last year, and by head-to-head record I wasn't first in 2017 either. (I was first in points!) But hey, here we are.
I should preface this by pointing out what should already be obvious: there's a ton of luck involved in fantasy sports. Even if you talk fantasy sports a lot, for example, you're going to find that you won't uncover all the answers.
I thought the team I assembled in 2016 would compete. Then, Miguel Cabrera (.340 wOBA in April/May) and Joey Votto (.276 wOBA in April/May) started painfully slow. They were supposed to be my offensive anchors. Tyson Ross, a 32.52 points per game starter in 2015, got hurt in his first start and missed the season. Carlos Carrasco, my best pitcher, missed all of May. Sonny Gray turned into a pumpkin. Alex Rodriguez had a .293 wOBA in April/May. Of the first seven guys I won at our inaugural auction, only Johnny Cueto was good or even useful through the season's first six weeks or so.
All of that is blind, dumb luck. I don't control injuries. I don't control Votto, one of the best hitters of our generation, hitting like Jose Peraza for over a month.
I certainly left money on the table that first auction and probably relied too heavily on boring, useful bench types as starters. I legitimately thought a cheap Trevor Plouffe was an acceptable starting 3B option. I thought I could platoon the White Sox catchers last year, an idea that played out so poorly I may as well have just played the year without a catcher slot. But mostly, my team went bust in 2016 because of random stuff that could happen to anybody. Even if they'd all stayed healthy and produced early, I probably wouldn't have been a great team. But because that stuff did happen, I decided in May to start reworking my team by trading Cabrera and Gray for picks and prospects. That was the first step in climbing out of the cellar and to the top…
Step 1: The Miguel Cabrera/Sonny Gray trade
Sending Miggy and Gray to the Preseason Double Stuffs for Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, Brett Phillips, Jorge Soler, and draft capitol is really what ignited my team into 2017. Bellinger, as a rookie, hit at a 1.737 points per plate appearance clip for me at a $0 cost. That's elite production. Again, I can't control that Bellinger hit. But he did and it helped.
The one thing I will say is, I targeted prospects that I thought would debut in 2017. Because (a) my team sucked in 2016, so if they debut and their clock starts, that's a ding in value; and (b) points now are better than points later. I'm not super interested in an 18-year-old prospect in Single A when there's a comparable 22-year-old prospect on the cusp of the majors. In the case of this specific trade, the Double Stuffs happened to have a few near-MLB guys that fit the bill. And I love Ian Happ, so. Obviously, there's no science involved. The Cubs could've promoted Happ last year. The Dodgers could've called Bellinger up in September. I can't control that stuff either. But I do think it's possible to hedge within reason and if your goal is to get better quickly, you won't do it with teenagers unless you're using them exclusively as trade currency.
Happ, Soler, and the draft pick acquired from the Double Stuffs — which I assumed would suck but became the second overall pick — didn't score me a ton, really. I did have Happ in my lineup 25 times at 5.76 points per game, so that's pretty good. But 25 starts isn't swinging things much one way or another. But these pieces ended up helping later on.
My other big trade was swapping Cueto for JP Crawford, Aaron Judge, and a first round pick. More on Judge in the step below. But also, damn, I had and traded Judge. Frowny face.
I should note here also that not going full scale blow-up mode helped. Hanging onto Votto and Carrasco is as big a reason as any that my team got good. The offers I got for these players were, frankly, pitiful, so that made things easy. But I could have very easily dumped them for picks and lukewarm prospects and gone into auction with $350 or whatever. I'm glad I didn't.
Step 2: Acquiring good veterans from over-budget teams for picks and prospects at below market rates
I think this was more impactful to my team than Bellinger. Because I "tanked" the season, I was able to build up a solid minor league system and a nice cache of draft picks. But picks and prospects rarely score points. So in the off-season, when teams way over budget shopped quality veteran players, I cashed out some of those assets and bought. And because I'd sucked so badly that I had loaded up on picks and prospects, selling some didn't mean leaving the cupboard bare.
I acquired a way overpriced Andrew McCutchen for Soler, Travis d'Arnaud, Billy Hamilton, and I think a second round pick. Cutch mostly bounced back in 2017 (1.438 PT/PA), thankfully. I couldn't have controlled that either, but I'm comfortable betting on a player with an elite track record. It paid off. I think that's the key to a quick rebuild. If you've got budget space, use it ahead of auction and buy low to lock in a guy you think can bounce back. I think budget space is worth much more pre-auction than during auction, when you're left picking through the risky players no one wanted. I also think if your team sucks like mine did but you want to quickly improve, you need to gamble. You need to overpay a guy or two and hope for a return to form. Also, you won't likely have an opportunity to buy a recently elite talent at auction. And if you do, there may only be one or two of those guys, so you'll have competition.
I also bought Russell Martin for a second round pick. Martin's another efficient, boring veteran player. But my catcher position was the worst in the league in 2016. Martin helped fixed that.
One other trade was working a three-way swap with The Foundation and Hustle Loyalty Respect that effectively landed me Neil Walker and the 16th overall pick for the 4th overall pick. HLR used the pick to take Blake Rutherford, who I think got hurt. I took Franklin Perez with the 16th pick. Today, I think Perez is more valuable than Rutherford, though to be fair, Rutherford got hurt. Even if Rutherford's more valuable, they're both top-100 guys. To me, any difference is negligible. But even if Rutherford hadn't gotten hurt, there's no chance he (or whichever other available prospect) was scoring at a 1.338 PT/PA clip like Walker did, and doing so right now. Points now > points later, and prospects are fickle, so the guy who goes 4th and the guy who goes 16th could very easily switch fortunes over a single season. At the time, I just felt like I was slightly downgrading a prospect in exchange for making a big upgrade to my current 2B spot, which was a big weakness in 2016.
Then I acquired Nelson Cruz and Adrian Beltre, who presumably had affordable prices because of their age and their team's budget situation. Again, if you've got budget space, attacking the trade market is worth it. Beltre cost me Amed Rosario, an elite prospect, but that's really where stacking prospects in 2016 helped. Having JP Crawford meant feeling more comfortable shipping out Rosario.
Of course, both those old dudes could've fallen apart. But my team was garbage in 2016. If they did fall apart, oh well, I'm in the cellar again in 2017 and then I just cut those guys and have the cap space back. But there weren't hitters this good in the auction (granted at the time of the trades, the auction pool was a mystery), or at least players less risky. The highest paid hitters at auction were Adam Jones, Adrian Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Lorenzo Cain. There's some hindsight present, of course, but I'm not sure pre-auction anyone would've honestly felt like any of those guys were better, more efficient hitters than Cruz or Beltre. If you're cool with a multi-year rebuild, by all means, ignore trading for old dudes like this. But I think it's prudent to do it if you want to try winning money instead of just sinking money into a multi-year plan.
I also traded Judge for Matt Holliday, and that proved very stupid. In Holliday, I saw a one-year rental with a Giancarlo Stanton-esque batted ball profile and a cheap ($10) salary. I ended up starting Holliday 57 times for 5.9 points per game, so while he didn't go bonkers like Judge did, he did help the cause. And with regards to Judge, his 2017 season was something I don't think anyone saw coming. I offered him to several teams and no one bit. I had to include Grant Holmes along with Judge to secure Holliday. So yeah, sometimes trading prospects for vets will backfire, but in general I think it's a solid, less risky strategy. I'd be curious what Dan thought he was getting with Judge when he made this trade, especially since I know he's an old guy lover as well.
One thing I'm curious to see this off-season is if over budget teams continue selling their guys short to "get something instead of nothing," or if teams feel more comfortable dumping to auction. Cruz was had for Dan Vogelbach and a first round pick. I liked Vogelbach as a prospect and obviously Team Hydra did too, but in retrospect, might those guys have figured out a way to keep Cruz's bat? Or might they have been better sending him to auction and seeing if maybe they could buy him back cheaper? I'm not convinced giving teams discounts on good players is effective, even if the alternative is cutting and "getting nothing."
Step 3: Not screwing up the auction
I notoriously left like $21 on the table at our first auction. But I also made some awful bids. Buying into A-Rod's resurgence was dumb. I came away from auction with two 1B's and UT player, effectively destroying all my lineup flexibility.
I did a lot better, I think, with my buys in 2017, adding Jaime Garcia, Francisco Cervelli, Lucas Duda, Chris Owings, Ryan Zimmerman, and Charlie Morton.
Once again, luck played a role here. I didn't expect almost 900 points from a $1 Zimmerman. I liked his batted ball profile, but come on. I also didn't think Morton would be more than a back-end starter, and he ended up being my most consistent pitcher and a solid SP2. I didn't even want him. It just ended up being the end of the auction, he was the last starting pitcher available, and I wasn't leaving money on the table again. Owings filled multiple crucial positions for only $8. I overpaid for Cervelli at $17, but he was a nice compliment to Martin because, again, my catcher spot needed help.
The thing about the auction is, all the players are supremely risky. Teams will find ways to keep or trade "sure things." And so if you rely too heavily on auction, you're lending yourself to luck. If Morton and Garcia don't give me quality starts, my auction stinks and my team suffers. But I started Morton 21 times at 30.43 points per start and Garcia 14 times at 24.04.
But hey, guess what? Matt Harvey, Drew Smyly, Jordan Zimmermann, Collin McHugh, Carlos Rodon, Felix Hernandez, Garrett Richards, Francisco Liriano, and Shelby Miller were all in the same auction. At the time, not sure how any of those guys were too different from Morton and Garcia. I got lucky the guys I won didn't injure their arms. I got lucky my darts landed where they did. I mean, I wanted Liriano really bad and just screwed up my bid on auction day. Bullet dodged. Blind, dumb luck.
The lesson here, maybe, is to just give yourself fewer dart throws to botch. Acquire talent you have conviction about pre-auction rather than finding yourself in a spot where your money is going to Shelby Miller or Francisco Liriano, and you're totally uninspired either way. Your mileage may vary, of course. Having a bunch of money at auction is fun, if nothing else.
Step 4: I love you, Giancarlo Stanton
As part of that Cabrera/Gray trade, I secured the second overall pick in last year's draft. I took Nick Senzel. I like him a whole lot. But I love Giancarlo Stanton and his moonshot home runs. And so in mid-May, I landed Big G for Senzel, Blake Snell, and a future first round pick.
From May 11 forward, Stanton was the third-highest scoring hitter behind Votto and Charlie Blackmon. As much as I like Senzel, you simply have to trade guys like him for elite production now. It helps that Stanton finally stayed healthy, but even if he hadn't, we all know what he does when he is. In our format, he is an elite fantasy producer on a rate basis. It was a no-brainer for me.
As for Snell, well, I like him still, but if I wanted to win this year I knew I couldn't sit around waiting and hoping that he learns how to throw strikes and pitch deep into games. The downside to young pitchers is they sometimes are slow to put everything together. If next year Snell's awesome and cheap, oh well. I'll still be happy with several mammoth months of Giancarlo.
Step 5: Keep on buying stuff that helps
During the course of the season, once I saw that my team was pretty good, I just kept trying to add. In a series of deals, I sent prospects Corey Ray, Albert Abreu, Julio Urias, Happ, and Jake Faria off for the likes of Max Scherzer, Miggy, JA Happ, Jason Vargas, and Danny Salazar. All those moves did not pan out.
Reunited on my team, I slotted Miggy into my lineup 31 times and he scored at a 2.61 point per game rate. That's abysmal. Despite his highest hard hit rate since 2014 and the best line drive rate of his career, Miggy gave me nothing. He performed worse than any random bench player I already had, in fact. In Urias, I paid little. But I felt like I had to take the gamble. I expect Miggy to get his back right this off-season and return to an elite level in 2018. He reminds me a whole heck of a lot like McCutchen last year. His price seems way too high (he'll get a raise to $75), but how can you easily bet against one of the best hitters the game has seen in the last decade plus? Like, would you really rather two $35 lottery tickets at auction (in the 2017 auction, Adrian Gonzalez + Carlos Rodon = $76) than one player a single injury-hampered season removed from being an elite hitter?
Meanwhile, Happ was a fantastic addition for me, scoring 28.04 points a game in 14 starts. I started Salazar seven times for more than 30 points per start. Scherzer didn't do much for me in the playoffs, but in total, he logged six starts at 32.67 a pop. Net total, these were good, albeit short-term, trades for my team. Corey Ray wasn't scoring me 392.5 points like Happ did. Albert Abreu didn't drop a 65 point start on my roster like Salazar.
Again though, these trades could look brutal in just a few months. What if Scherzer gets hurt? What if Urias overcomes his injury? What if Ray ascends and JA Happ grows old quick? I don't know. But I think if you're in a spot to seize a chance to win now, you need to be okay with these types of calculated risks.
The other thing to note is that the in-season trades didn't necessarily have a ton to do with going worst to first. The Stanton trade, sure. The other trades just bolstered a team that had been mostly assembled in the off-season.
I think the biggest reason my team got it's shit together so quickly was simply putting in the work to do it. When a good player became available, I asked for a price tag. When I saw a team was way over their budget, I inquired about expensive players with good track records. I wasn't too worried about riskiness because well, my team was a dumpster fire. Getting worse than bad isn't much of a risk. Staying worse, and paying into a league to not even try to fight for wins now, seems way riskier to me. I placed the highest value on today and worried less about if the prospect I'm sending away will be a fantasy monster in 2021 (or in Judge's case, 2017) or if all the old guys will decide to retire simultaneously.
Clearly, there's a strategy to this game. If there wasn't, we probably wouldn't play. What'd be the point?
But ultimately you only control so much. I think the only way to really approach things is to give yourself the best hand possible and hope for the best. In hold 'em poker, a 2/7 will beat a K/K, for example, some of the time. But the odds say more often than not, the stronger hand will prevail. So I just tried to do stuff that I thought made my hand stronger, then accepted all the luck I could get.
Author Andrew BaileyPosted on September 18, 2017 September 18, 2017 Categories Game TheoryTags Aaron Judge, Adam Jones, Adrian Beltre, Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Amed Rosario, Andrew McCutchen, Billy Hamilton, Blake Snell, Brett Phillips, Carlos Carrasco, Carlos Rodon, Charlie Blackmon, Cody Bellinger, Collin McHugh, Dan Vogelbach, Danny Salazar, Drew Smyly, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Cervelli, Francisco Liriano, Garrett Richards, Giancarlo Stanton, Grant Holmes, Hustle Loyalty Respect, Ian Happ, JA Happ, Jaime Garcia, Jason Vargas, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jorge Soler, Jose Peraza, JP Crawford, Julio Urias, Lorenzo Cain, Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, Matt Holliday, Max Scherzer, Miguel Cabrera, Neil Walker, Nelson Cruz, Preseason Double Stuffs, Russell Martin, Ryan Zimmerman, Shelby Miller, Sonny Gray, strategy, Team hydra, The Foundation, Travis d'Arnaud, Trevor Plouffe, Troy Tulowitzki, Tyson Ross, winning
Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Team Hydra
Team Hydra sends: 3B Nolan Arenado ($71), SP David Price ($75), LF/CF Tommy Pham (FA), 2018 5th round pick
HLR sends: LF/RF/CF Aaron Hicks (FA), SP Yadier Alvarez, C Zack Collins, 2018 1st & 2nd round pick
Andrew's Thoughts: Roughly a year ago, I traded Miguel Cabrera, Sonny Gray, and stuff for Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, Jorge Soler, and what ended up being the second overall draft pick plus other stuff. Alex from Team Hydra commented on the trade as such: "to be fair Bailey said those guys were on the block. He just didn't say they were going to be given away for free."
Fast forward to yesterday and, well, to be fair, Alex said these guys were on the block. He just didn't say they were going to be given away for free.
Two of my first thoughts upon seeing this trade were that (a) Aaron Hicks is the best piece going to Hydra, and (b) Tommy Pham may as well be the same guy. I did a quick Google search and here's some random Cardinals blog that thinks the same thing. So there's that. Hicks is hitting at a 1.644 PT/PA clip, whereas Pham is at 1.502. Pham's older and has one less outfield position. They were both free agent adds that will start at $5 salary next year. They just feel very same-y to me, to the point where if one is your main piece and you're giving up the other, the point feels a tad defeated.
I really didn't think David Price was going to go for much. He's got a lot of mileage, has developed a homer problem (who hasn't?), and there are lingering injury concerns. Also, he's been pretty bad this year. At $77 next year, I think he's an easy cut or Hustle will just give him away the moment the season ends and clog up some other team's budget. I thought he should've been cut this year (pre-injury). So whatever team bought him was likely doing it on a rental basis, and I just didn't see teams spending big to rent anyone. I thought maybe a pick and a prospect would get it done. In that vein, I don't think sending Collins or Alvarez, or maybe even both, for Price as a rental is that bad on its own, assuming you really believe Price can get it going and help your team this year. Given the pitching landscape, gambling on Price seems like a reasonable bet.
So we haven't even gotten to the big gun in this trade, and I feel like Hicks and Pham have cancelled each other out and a moderately valuable Price has fetched a couple pieces. There aren't a ton more assets floating around here.
As for Arenado, well, I'm not sure all the pieces going to Hydra is enough for him alone. He's expensive, sure, but he's young, in his prime, plays a premium position, and plays in Coors. His salary is only going to go up by $2/year. That's nothing. He's a superstar, priced reasonably at $73 next year, and yet he didn't land someone universally viewed as an "elite prospect"? I mean, maybe you think Yadier Alvarez is. That's fair. Everyone's prospect valuations are different. But he's pitched 45 innings at A+. The lead time on him is a factor and that assumes that he dodges injury and experiences no developmental speed bumps. He's already struggling with command this year.
And I like Zack Collins as a hitter, but if he doesn't stick at catcher, a lot of his value will be sapped in a world where Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, Mark Reynolds, and Logan Morrison are awesome and can be had for free. Heck, the Braves are moving Freddie Freeman to third base (I imagine this factored into Hydra's long-term calculus for moving Arenado) to make room for Matt Adams' bat. First base is not lacking for depth. And the cost control aspect is neat but if Collins is $1 and Alonso gets greeded up to like $5, is that really significant value?
If he does stick at catcher, that might push his MLB ETA out further. Again, for me personally, Alvarez and Collins are guys you can afford to spend on a rental player or two or just a quality lineup upgrade, not really key cogs to dealing a stud.
And those picks are… something? It's going to be a late first rounder and a pick somewhere in the second round, but this year's MLB Draft class was weak. Looking at last year's draft, I feel like around the 11th or 12th pick is where it started really being a coin toss. The first belongs to Hustle and the second belongs to Haddy. Today, that'd be pick 16 and pick 27, I think. You can definitely land good talent there, but your odds of whiffing also go up considerably the deeper you go.
Look, I won't argue anyone's prospect evaluations. If you think Collins is going to be a star and Alvarez is going to quickly develop into an ace, awesome. I definitely think, at least in Collins' case, he's a better fantasy prospect than real life prospect. But I don't really know. I doubt you know either. We're all making our best guesses. But I really do have a hard time imagining that, in terms of prospect currency, no one was willing to beat Alvarez and Collins even if, as the buyer, you're super high on them both. Arenado's not some declining veteran, win-now salary sell off. He's a player that even if you're at the bottom of the standings, you should probably be in on. I'd be curious how many teams even inquired here.
In terms of dynasty rankings Collins and Alvarez are… top 50? Maybe top 30 guys? (The rankings are irrelevant, of course. I don't recall Bellinger being an "elite" guy a year ago.) I'm not sure if HLR had added Vladimir Guerrero Jr to this package it'd still feel totally right, but it'd at least be closer. At least then there's a consensus "elite prospect" in the mix.
There's no telling how this will play out. If the prospects turn into anything decent, Hydra's probably content. I think some of it will depend on if teams sell players at discounted prices in the off-season like last year, at which point Hydra can put some of the cap space they've freed up to use. I know Hustle's probably thrilled to just plug in Arenado every day instead of oscillating back and forth between Yuli Gurriel and Nick Castellanos.
Hustle's Take
Author Andrew BaileyPosted on June 26, 2017 June 26, 2017 Categories TradesTags Aaron Hicks, Cody Bellinger, David Price, dynasty, Freddie Freeman, Ian Happ, Jorge Soler, Logan Morrison, Mark Reynolds, Matt Adams, Miguel Cabrera, Nick castellanos, Nolan Arenado, pitching, Rankings, Ryan Zimmerman, Sonny Gray, Team hydra, Tommy Pham, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Yadier Alvarez, Yonder Alonso
Trade: Capital City Ironmen | Preseason Double Stuffs
PDS Receives: Blake Snell $1 (P), Nick Senzel $0, CCI 1st round pick 2018
CCI Recieves: Giancarlo Stanon $74
Hustle's Thoughts: I think today marks the exact one year anniversary of their trade last year (the Sonny Gray, Miggy, Bellinger deal) and my how the tables have turned (180 degrees). The deal itself is pretty similar to last years, just a lot less pieces ( I believe 10 players were involved last year).
Anyway Bailey and Ferns being in a trade makes it very easy for me to rip on one of them, but truth be told it's pretty reasonable.
I think a healthy Stanton at $74 is probably a very good value and someone Bailey would have no problem keeping at that price, or even $10 more. Problem is the obvious, health. Chances are if Ferns is out of this in a month or 2 he runs the risk of Stanton being hurt and having to make a difficult decision in the offseason or take less. Timing wise, it's a pretty good time to trade Stanton if you're a seller and can get a haul.
The Haul. In terms of the pick, who knows. Per Joe Rawlings the draft is weak this year and this is likely to be a pick somewhere between 10-16. That being said, there's always going to be a good player to grab and this lottery ticket puts you in a position to get one.
Nick Senzel (.124 ISO .350 WOBA 2017) seems like a good prospect. I don't think he has the offensive upside of a Stanton, but he seems to be a lock to make the majors by next season at the latest and be the future 3b for the Reds. Currently Ferns has Ryon Healy and Maikel Franco, both are pretty young. I guess the hope is one of these guys will break out and be their sure fire 3b or they could all be just solid 4.5 ppg producers. Senzel will obviously be the cheapest one to carry next year at 0 or $1.
Blake Snell: Snell was an early pick in last year's inaugural prospect draft and I believe Bailey traded into the first round to get Snell. Currently he's averaging just under 16 points a start. His HR/9 is up, his K rate is down, but he's young. Playing in the AL East will do him no favors but the ballpark should contain some damage. I'm not sure we know how much Snell will cost next year, but I can't imagine it will be that much at the rate his season is going.
If one of these three assets hit big, then it's a good haul for Ferns, but we won't likely know for a while, and in the meantime his team is considerably worse without Stanton.
All in all, I see this as a Ferns getting 3 interesting pieces for one of the best bats in the game. One wonders if with Stanton gone if Miggy will stay put on PDS. After all, Ferns now has the overwhelming amount of budget space to keep Miggy and then some. In fact, he could probably look to add a piece with the budget he's created. Perhaps Giancarlo Stanton on 5/11/2018?
Author baseballPosted on May 11, 2017 May 12, 2017 Categories TradesTags Blake Snell, Giancarlo Stanton, Maikel Franco, Sonny Gray
Trade: Team Hydra | Capital City Ironmen
Team Hydra sends: RF Nelson Cruz ($34), 4th round 2017 Draft Pick
Capital City Ironmen send: 1B Dan Vogelbach ($1 ML), 1st round 2017 Draft Pick (#11), $2 in 2017 Team Budget
Jordan's thoughts: Hey look, back-to-back trades for my co-commish for older outfielder stars. One thing that I didn't consider in my opinions of the previous trade, was the potential that WTFS would need to cut McCutchen due to budget reasons. As for that deal and this deal. I don't think it changes my opinion a whole lot.
I hope beyond hope as a Mariners fan that Vogelbach is an interesting piece to own in fantasy soon. I don't really believe it as I see his fantasy upside something as your swing UT #2 guy. Useful, but not great.
The 11th overall pick could be interesting in the long term and has some value. But, its really only worth its weight in hype. The budget money moving one way or another I'm sure helps Hydra make one decision easier and that has value.
But, I think punting the #3 overall RF last year is a bit of mistake. At least this is a sell low. It is early in the off-season to be in this position for my liking. I know they were shopping him, but this is the best?
As for Andrew, consider his position. He sold his team, upgraded young assets, and then bought two win now assets on the market for dimes on the dollar. Is Cruz as good as he was last year next year? STEAMER projects say no, not close. But, they still have him as a serviceable starter. Again, I believe this is a high floor buy, with proven talent to reach 1,000 points.
If you believe the draft will be full of these kinds of guys, I think you're wrong. If I am wrong, then Andrew probably would rather have kept his money and bid on things. But, he literally sent a few tiny assets and upgraded his active roster.
I hate it for Hydra, love it for Capital City. But, Hydra is the champs, and Capital City settled for #1 overall. So maybe they know more than this trade leads on.
Andrew's defense: Hydra won the championship, so I'm sure they're not too bummed about being way above our $500 cap. But the fact remains, they're way above the cap.
In that sense, you could assume they might cut a player like Nelson Cruz who, at $34, strikes me as a bargain. Maybe it isn't Cruz that goes, but someone similar. They do have some easy big dollar cuts ($41 Prince Fielder, $49 Sonny Gray). Still, someone has to go. But "having to go" also could mean they trade him to someone else. Right? It doesn't mean that player will just be there come auction time, guaranteed, when I've got cash to spend. I also have some doubts about what'll be available in the auction anyway. If a guy like Cruz gets there, I think there's a good shot he's one of the few impact players available and as a result, goes for well more than $34. He was easily worth more than $34 last year.
As for projections and such, here's Cruz's wOBA over the past four years: .383, .396, .370, .359. That's consistency. There's some risk because he's old and sometimes old guys see their skills erode or get hurt. But Cruz seems safe to me. That is to say, if he does suddenly fall off, it's not like I would pull up his FanGraphs page and go "oh yeah, should've seen this coming." And if he gets hurt, well… it happens.
As for what I gave up, I like Vogelbach a lot. He's fun. He's a big old round guy that hits a ton. He's like Ferns, but you know, hits a ton. I don't doubt his ability to hit, but I worry for his opportunity and think the lack of defense could be a detriment to his playing time. Plus, if he's only a 1B or UT, the bar is higher. And his cost control clock has started, so if he's only going to get 250-300 PAs next year, that's another year of control gone for the sake of a bench hitter.
The pick is neat. Based on my early draft rankings, the 11th overall pick translates to something around the 65th or 70th prospect on a list (an overall list, not a fantasy list). Those players are risky. Also, there are a lot of pitching prospects in the 11th overall range, and pitchers are risky too. I would have loved to use that pick, but I also spent all of last year acquiring prospects and have picks two, three, and four. I think I can spare one lottery ticket for a really good player at a good salary.
Author Jordan GillisPosted on December 8, 2016 December 8, 2016 Categories TradesTags Capital City Ironmen, Dan Vogelbach, FanGraphs, Nelson Cruz, pitching, Prince Fielder, Rankings, Sonny Gray, Team hydra
Trade: Preseason Double Stuffs | Team Hydra
Preseason Double Stuffs sends: SP Sonny Gray ($47), 2017 4th Round Pick
Team Hydra sends: 3B/SS Ryan Mountcastle (minors), 2018 2nd Round Pick
Jordan's thoughts: There are two clearly different schools of thought circulating around. Either you believe there is some small value in cutting a player, or you believe you get nothing when releasing a player at the end of a season. I think both camps are ultimately right. However, I believe this deal is about getting whatever you can get for a player who has already given you nothing.
Sonny Gray, as you'll read soon by Andrew, has done poorly. Ryan Mountcastle has done alright for a 19-year-old in A-ball. I'm not impressed with this return for a pitcher who at any point could return to glory. Sure, the draft pick bump counts, but not a lot. You're now possibly stuck keeping a 19-year-old who is not on any kind of pace to see the Major Leagues prior to age 21 for three or four seasons. By the time keeping these kinds of long shots makes sense, you're hoping Mountcastle is ready. We shall see.
I think the better strategy for our Oreo squad here, is to hold Gray until the bitter end. If you end up cutting him, great. If he finishes strong, $49 isn't really that unrealistic. Maybe he regains trade value in the off-season. Maybe not, and you're out a long shot and a pick upgrade.
Andrew's thoughts: I realize Sonny Gray has been a disaster this year and could very well just be permanently broken, but I'd rather gamble that he finds himself the rest of this season and makes keeping him a possibility and then just cut him if he doesn't than punt him for a second round pick two drafts away.
Gray's xFIP is only up by 0.41 and his HR/FB is more than double what it's been in any other season, so there are some indicators that he's just been getting the worst possible bounces. His .321 BABIP this year is .043 above his career average. His batted ball profile was always super lucky, so maybe that luck has just run out and he's garbage now.
But let's just say he turns a corner the rest of the year. Let's say he starts 10 more games and averages 30+ points per start over that stretch. I'm not saying that locks him into being a keeper — he's been so bad, it may not even move the needle — but at least you have the option. Finishing that strong could also make him worth something in trade again this off-season. I don't necessarily think any of that is likely, but I'd rather gamble on those possibilities than on a draft pick in 2018 and a prospect three years (at least, probably) away from the big leagues who probably has a dozen or so comps sitting in free agency.
Author Andrew BaileyPosted on August 2, 2016 August 2, 2016 Categories TradesTags Preseason Double Stuffs, Sonny Gray, strategy, Team hydra
Trade: Team Canada | Capital City Ironmen
Team Canada sends: SP James Shields ($28), SS J.P. Crawford (minors), RF Aaron Judge (minors), 2017 1st Round pick
Capital City Ironmen send: SP Johnny Cueto ($60), RF Michael Reed (minors), 2017 3rd Round Pick
Andrew's thoughts: Reviewing my own trade again!
First things first: after dealing away Miguel Cabrera and Sonny Gray, I was content to sit back for a while and hold my pieces for a bit. But Team Canada and I had sent a few offers back and forth for Cueto, and then a deal very similar was proposed to me that made me change my mind.
I'll keep this succinct because I write about my team plenty: I love Cueto. He's a top-10 starting pitcher and at $60, he's one of the best values n the entire league. He pitches in arguably the most favorable park in baseball and in a league where half the league is rebuilding. He's awesome.
But I viewed this deal as essentially saying this: the difference between Cueto and Shields is $32, two top-25 prospects (Crawford was taken 6th and Judge 27th overall in our inaugural minor league draft), and a first round pick (likely late, because Team Canada is really good). To me, the gap isn't nearly that big, so the deal just made too much sense.
In Shields, I get a pitcher that chews up innings and keeps my team competitive in the short term. Even at $30 next year, he's worth keeping. He's also worth something in trade, so Cueto could keep giving in that regard too.
Michael Reed is an interesting prospect for Team Canada to get back, but I had picked him up from free agency not too long ago, so it's not as if he was highly valued within our league.
Jordan's thoughts: This is why we're in a dynasty style league. Given the format, which it likely to be under discussion next year, it is not hard to understand the pressure to sell here. Bailey was looking at 1 win and 5 losses before coming back and winning in week 6. Even with the week 6 win, he stood a extreme long shot to get into the top 4. When you're left with two options, spend to attempt to give yourself some better sliver of a chance, or sell to setup for 2017, I think he makes a reasonable call.
Standing pat for Bailey, who before both of his trades stood with the "5th" best projected line up, really was not an option. It was already under performing, he lost two pitchers to injury, and its still only 5th best. Just four make the playoffs. Bailey got back four huge assets for Cueto. Judge and Crawford may or may not make an impact in 2017. The chance that either do is enticing. The first round pick here does not project terribly well, but it has some value.
I really like that Bailey got back Shields here. Shields the last two years has floundered some, but this season Shields has regained some promise as a reliable starter. This means Bailey got back someone he can keep for a reasonable price, or sell yet again. Fun stuff.
For Team Canada, they paid one hell of a price for Cueto. Canada is in the drivers seat to get into the Championship Bracket and added a big piece to that ride. Cueto will certainly be a big help, but this price that Canada paid is extremely aggressive. You have to like it for them, the prospects can be replaced.
Author Andrew BaileyPosted on May 17, 2016 May 17, 2016 Categories TradesTags Aaron Judge, Capital City Ironmen, dynasty, James Shields, Johnny Cueto, Miguel Cabrera, Sonny Gray, Team Canada, winning
The first big "sell"…
Yesterday, I pulled the trigger on a 14-piece trade that could succinctly be described as the first "sell" move of 2016. That is to say, the first trade aimed toward improving a team in the future more so than the present.
The deal, agreed to with the Preseason Double Stuffs, is outlined and analyzed by third parties right here.
First things first: though there are a bunch of pieces in this trade, many of them are superfluous. Some guys went to the Double Stuffs that would have been cut from my end to make room for new guys and I received one player back that they would have cut. In my mind, the deal was this:
I sent 1B Miguel Cabrera ($71), SP Sonny Gray ($49), SP Nick Tropeano ($1), C Carlos Ruiz (free agent) and a third round pick in 2017 for LF/RF Jorge Soler ($14), prospects CF Brett Phillips, CF/RF Ian Happ, 1B Cody Bellinger, and a first round pick in 2017.
Right out of the gate, my decision to sell was really pretty simple: my team is last in record, last in points, and has two major injuries (Carlos Carrasco and Tyson Ross) that make digging out of that hole extremely difficult. If those two guys are healthy, I'm not selling yet (and frankly, my team is probably significantly better to the point that selling parts hasn't even entered my head).
Our championship bracket allows only four teams in, so I saw my team as being in a deep hole five plus weeks in and needing to jump 12 teams to get into that bracket. That's a tall order, particularly without the pitchers I mentioned before for at least a few more weeks (I'm not sure Ross makes it back this year, but who knows?).
When I ultimately decided to sell and set out to do so, I'm pretty sure I told everyone I spoke to that I wanted multiple pieces for any of my impact players. And my preference was to check multiple boxes. By that, I mean a minor league piece, a major league piece, a draft pick piece, and/or an auction cash piece. I didn't need all four, but I wanted a multi-faceted return.
Without divulging private conversations, I can tell you that almost every team I spoke to was balking at that. Draft picks were being viewed at a premium and most teams seemed unwilling to offer more than one prospect in return.
The obvious question is: does waiting a while longer change that? If in the next month a contending team suffers a few injuries, do negotiations change? Probably. The flip side of that is, with Gray coming off three rough starts, he could conceivably just be broken and worth nothing in a month's time. He's suffered some velocity decreases recently and he's a little guy, so that's worrying. Personally, I think he'll be fine. He's a top-20 pitcher two years running and $49 for that type of performer is a bargain. But still, there's a chance that he's broken and the risk of waiting to find out just didn't seem worth it.
Side note with regards to approaching Gray with trepidation: I don't trust a word Billy Beane says and if Gray does end up getting traded this season, I think most logical destinations sting his value. Going to the Dodgers isn't so bad, but the Red Sox? I don't like that.
It's also possible that a month from now, two or three other teams see the walls close in on their 2016 and enter the market. I'd rather just be the first buyer.
I look at this deal as getting five pieces back that check three boxes: minor league piece(s), major league piece, draft pick piece.
In Phillips, Happ, and Bellinger, I see three top-100 prospects — Phillips and Happ are, at least in my mind, top-50 types — that are relatively close to the majors. In our minor league draft, these guys went 25th, 57th, and 104th overall. MLB.com ranks them 29th, 72nd, and 97th on their prospect list. Baseball America says 57th, 87th, and has Bellinger way up at 54th. Lists are what they are. Take them or leave them, whatever.
I don't need these guys this year, so not debuting until 2017 is fine. Coupled with my recent addition of Clint Frazier, it's conceivable that I have an entire outfield in 2017-18 that costs essentially nothing.
The low cost of prospects and the freeing up of over $100 of budget is an added bonus of this deal. In that sense, I could argue that my fourth box, auction cash, was checked as well. The Preseason Double Stuffs are now well over budget for 2017, which means there's $100+ worth of cuts floating out there. Look at the Rocky Mountain Oysters as well. That team is also well over budget for 2017. It's too early to put too much stock in future budgets, I think, but what I'm getting at is, next year, I could have a shot at buying Miggy back, or at least buying back a few players that add up to Miggy because other teams will be in a position where they're forced to make drastic cuts to keep those high salaried players.
As for Soler, he's still just 24 years old and ZiPS/Steamer project him for a .322/.319 wOBA the rest of the season. Coming into the year, ZiPS pegged him for a .333 wOBA and 17 homers. Playing time is a major concern for him, obviously, but a player with those numbers is useful. Maybe he gets sent down to AAA to get regular at-bats, maybe he gets traded, who knows? I think he's a gamble worth taking. As Jonny pointed out in reviewing this deal, if we did our auction a year earlier, Soler likely goes for $30-$40 based on his performance the year prior, age, and upside. I mean, Byron Buxton went for $32 and his wOBA at the major league level is .066 points lower than Soler's (small sample size, I know).
The last piece coming my way is a first round draft pick which, if the season ended today, would be fifth overall. Of course, adding Cabrera, Gray, and even Ruiz to improve the catching situation a bit likely improves the Preseason Double Stuffs enough to worsen that pick — perhaps significantly. The pick could end up anywhere. Either way, I've now secured myself two picks in the top-16 and four in the top-32, so when our minor leagues expand by five slots, I'm in a more favorable position. (Aside: I've got a 3rd rounder that I'd like to attach a useful player to in exchange for a 1st or possibly 2nd rounder, so get in touch if that's something that might interest you.)
So where does my team go from here?
Offensively, a week from now I get Alex Rodriguez back and he slides into a UT spot, effectively replacing Cabrera in my lineup. He's a lesser hitter, but I'm not sure the gap between them is going to be super noticeable given our head-to-head format. ZiPS says there's a .042 difference in wOBA between them the rest of the way, which is significant but not disastrous.
My offense has a lot of similar, productive players — Nick Markakis, Corey Dickerson, Michael Saunders, Mike Napoli — that have made choosing a daily lineup difficult. I've had points on my bench instead of in my lineup a few times just from the coin falling on heads instead of tails, essentially. A fringe benefit now, I suppose, is having fewer choices and being able to just ride a core group of players. I'm only thinking of this now, it certainly wasn't a driving force in doing a deal.
My pitching, which was supposed to be my strength, is probably going to suck, but it has sucked already anyway. As of today, I've lost more points to home runs allowed than any other team and I'm dead last in net pitching points by more than 100. Eventually Carrasco and hopefully Ross return and there's a lot of positive regression due — the last I checked, my SPs' HR/9 was somewhere north of 1.70 which just isn't a thing that happens — but ouch.
Like I said, I do expect Gray to get it together, so not having him around when/if that happens will sting some. Tropeano would have been useful, but he was still likely a match-up play, as his 4.90 FIP and 1.71 HR/9 (with just a 13% HR/FB rate) alludes. And hopefully one or both of Blake Snell and Jake Thompson find their way into a major league rotation this summer anyway.
I'm also not sure at this juncture if there's another big move in the pipeline. And by that, I mean whether or not Johnny Cueto ($60) or Joey Votto ($70) will get moved.
On Votto, I suspect he will not. He is available, but I never had it in my plans to purge both he and Miggy, so the offer would have to be compelling. He's greed protected in 2017 by virtue of being one of the 30 highest paid players, so he'll get his $2 raise to $72 and be perfectly keepable as an offensive anchor.
Selling Cueto, on the other hand, is a more likely option, if only because pitchers are pitchers and in the sense that they are all ticking time bombs, it doesn't necessarily make sense for them to get closer and closer to going off on a roster that isn't competing. But I really don't like losing. I want to keep competing. With Cueto, who is the 7th best starting pitcher based on points per start as of this morning, my team can at least compete weekly, even if it's futile in the grand scheme of things. Without him, my pitching floor is terrifyingly low until Carrasco comes back. And I'd absolutely love to have him back as a staff ace in 2017.
(So as I was looking up Cueto's points, I noticed that he's second overall in points for starting pitchers. He's also started eight games, while most have started just seven. Anyway, Clayton Kershaw is predictably number one. He's also started eight games. But get this: Kershaw has 128 more points than Cueto. 128! In the same number of starts! Jose Altuve is the top scoring hitter and he's 113.4 points behind the Dodgers' ace. My goodness, Clayton Kershaw is not of this Earth. He is so good that I am going to end this post that has absolutely nothing to do with him on a note about him.)
Author Andrew BaileyPosted on May 13, 2016 May 17, 2016 Categories Game TheoryTags Alex Rodriguez, Blake Snell, Brett Phillips, Byron Buxton, Carlos Carrasco, Clayton Kershaw, Clint Frazier, Cody Bellinger, Corey Dickerson, Ian Happ, Jake Thompson, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, Jorge Soler, Jose Altuve, Michael Saunders, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Napoli, Nick Markakis, Nick Tropeano, pitching, Preseason Double Stuffs, Rocky Mountain Oysters, Sonny Gray, Tyson Ross
Preseason Double Stuffs sends: LF/RF Jorge Soler ($14), CF Brett Phillips (ML), CF Ian Happ (ML), 1B Cody Bellinger (ML), LF/CF/RF Alex Presley (FA), 2017 1st Round Minor League Draft Pick
Capital City Ironmen send: 1B Miguel Cabrera ($71), SP Sonny Gray ($47), 3B Rio Ruiz ($1), SP Nick Tropeano ($1), C Carlos Ruiz (FA), C Mike Zunino (FA), SP Zach Lee (FA), 2017 3rd Round Minor League Draft Pick
Jordan & Jonathan's thoughts: Instead of writing words, we used the podcast format to get our thoughts out! Check it out above! TL:DL Bailey's a sellout, and Ferns is making a bold move.
Author Jordan GillisPosted on May 12, 2016 Format AudioCategories Podcasts, TradesTags Brett Phillips, Capital City Ironmen, Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, Jorge Soler, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Tropeano, Preseason Double Stuffs, Rio Ruiz, Sonny Gray, Zach Lee
Dynasty Grinders Podcast – Episode 17
Andrew and Jonathan cover for Jordan this week. I do not know what they talk about. I haven't really listened to it yet. I'm sure Bryce Harper gets mentioned. Probably some J.T. Realmuto. Would not be shocked to hear Sonny Gray among others. Good luck have fun!
Author Jordan GillisPosted on May 10, 2016 Format AudioCategories PodcastsTags Bryce Harper, Sonny Gray


How many times have you skipped through your day with the energy of happiness? You know what I mean, saying hello to strangers, doing something nice for someone, singing in your car.
We all have had this from time to time depending upon events or circumstances in our lives. A new job, a job well done, pride in a loved one's achievement, a great relationship, a scratch and win. All good stuff that impacts us in a positive way.
Consequently how many times have you stumbled through your day with the anchor of anger, upset or sadness? You know what I mean, clinching your teeth, avoiding people, cursing in your car.
We all have had this from time to time given the stresses of life. Complicated relationships, conflict, STRESS. All things that impact us in a negative way.
Emotions are powerful forces in our lives.
For the positive emotions, people generally can express them openly. It seems relatively easy with the energy that happiness carries for example.
For negative emotions however, expressing them freely is not so simple. Perhaps it is a fear of confrontation, embarrassment, potential relationship damage, hurting others close, feeling unsafe, unimportant, the list goes on.
Some people think that expression of negative emotion is a risk not worth taking. They internalize and try to manage on their own. However leaving intense emotions locked inside is detrimental to your health as it will impact upon your body via stress i.e., high blood pressure, anxiety, headaches etc.
Some people will not think, rather they will react to their anger with outbursts, agitation with others, blame, sarcasm and on and on and on. The result of reacting in anger can be increased conflict and even more stress.
So then what in the heck do we do with negative emotion??????
Try the "CRIE" approach outlined below.
The first step in expressing emotion is preparing yourself to express yourself in a healthy and non attacking way. In order to prepare yourself, you need to calm via self care mechanisms i.e., working out, walking, journaling, yoga, music, consulting someone you trust, whatever it takes to calm you.
Inform those around you that there is an issue important enough to raise with them. You need to make sure they understand the discussion has to be free from interruption i.e., phone, text, people dropping in. The time and place needs to be set in order to provide the atmosphere needed to express what you need to with that person or persons.
This type of introduction may ease the other person or persons before the discussion begins.
These examples illustrate your feeling along with the reason for that feeling. The hope is that the other person will understand and respond accordingly. However, if there is a negative response to your discussion, you will need to apply some of the techniques from our first Communication Tip around CONFLICT.
When people understand and are informed, they are more open to helping or giving you what you need.
So there you have it in a nutshell, the importance of expressing emotion. We hope this little tip will help in acknowledging your emotion and the importance of expressing yourself to others.
NOTE: re-read the ten steps of confrontation found in the first part of this series entitled: When in Conflict. It may help you in expressing emotion to others.


text:
Trump concocts conspiracy theory to explain Puerto Rico death toll
According to the president, a natural disaster didn't kill 3,000 Americans in Puerto Rico. He sees the tally as the result of a Democratic conspiracy.
U.S. President Donald Trump tosses rolls of paper towels to people at a hurricane relief distribution center at Calvary Chapel in San Juan, Puerto Rico,...
Sept. 13, 2018, 1:56 PM UTC / Updated Sept. 13, 2018, 2:00 PM UTC
By Steve Benen
Trump praises P.R. response despite nearly 3000 American deaths
As Hurricane Florence approached the east coast, Donald Trump spoke from the Oval Office on Tuesday about preparations for the storm. But it wasn't long before the president tried to turn one of his highest-profile failures into a success story.
"I think Puerto Rico was incredibly successful," Trump said about his administration's response to last year's devastation. He added, "I actually think it was one of the best jobs that's ever been done with respect to what this is all about.... I think that Puerto Rico was an incredible unsung success."
He echoed the sentiment yesterday, insisting his administration "did an unappreciated great job in Puerto Rico," before blaming a "totally incompetent Mayor of San Juan."
All of this was quite jarring for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the fact that Puerto Rico recently increased its death toll from Hurricane Maria to 2,975 people. This morning, however, the president rejected that total in a pair of tweets, declaring the figure the result of a Democratic conspiracy.
"3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000."This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!"
It's hard to even know where to start, but let's unpack this a bit.
First, the fact that Americans died in Puerto Rico in the aftermath of a hurricane -- as opposed to during the storm itself -- does not make the administration's response to the crisis look better. It does the opposite by reinforcing the inadequacy of the federal efforts.
If you get into a serious car accident on a Monday, and die a few days later after receiving substandard care, your doctors don't get to brag about how you were alive earlier in the week and the accident was unrelated to your demise.
Second, the latest death toll wasn't produced by Democratic operatives out to undermine Trump. Rather, the figure came from researchers with the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University. They published a detailed report that the president can read at his leisure.
I realize that he's constantly concocting conspiracy theories -- and especially fond of conspiracy theories in which he's the victim -- but there's no evidence to support Trump's latest nonsense.
Third, if the White House has concerns about the official death toll, the president could call on Congress to hold hearings and demand a detailed accounting of what transpired in Puerto Rico. Republican lawmakers have refused to examine the tragedy, but if Trump worked with Congress to get answers, we'd all benefit. The likelihood of this happening, however, is close to zero.
And finally, we can now expand our list of those the president doesn't want us to trust. Alas, it's not a short list: Don't trust news organizations. Don't trust the courts. Don't trust U.S. intelligence agencies. Don't trust unemployment numbers. Don't even trust election results. Don't trust photographs of inaugurations.
Evidently, public-health researchers who come up with data Donald Trump doesn't like should be rejected, too.


To make the dressing, combine cilantro, Greek yogurt, garlic and salt in the bowl of a food processor. With the motor running, add olive oil and vinegar in a slow stream until emulsified; set aside.
To assemble the salad, place romaine lettuce in a large bowl; top with tomatoes, corn, and black bean. Pour the dressing on top of the salad and gently toss to combine. Stir in avocado.


text:
JOPLIN
======

Service Description:
--------------------

An open source note taking and to-do application with synchronisation capabilities.

User Guide
----------

Activation of the service
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From the page http://127.0.0.1:8000/th/service/

from the "Services available" part of the page, select Joplin and press "Activate it"

Defining a trigger
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

with Joplin as consumer, when another service used as a provider.

Installation Guide
------------------

The Joplin Token
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

open joplin and go to the menu `Tools > Webclipper options` to grab the token at the bottom of the page

The service keys
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here are the modifications of .env file you will need to make to be able to use your credentials with Github

.. code-block:: python

    TH_JOPLIN_WEBCLIPPER = 'http://127.0.0.1:4881'
    TH_JOPLIN_TOKEN = ''

Configuration from the Admin panel
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://127.0.0.1:8000/admin/django_th/servicesactivated/

add a new service and select Joplin. Then check .

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Q: Javascript: Globalizing variables inside function So I have the following code:
var func1 = function() {
    var userChoose = prompt("Choose a number from 1-10. If you choose the same number as the computer, you win!");
    func2();
};

var func2 = function() {
    computerChoose = Math.random();
    computerChoose = Math.round(computerChoose*10)/10;
    if (userChoose === computerChoose) {
        console.log("You won! The computer chose the number " + userChoice + " just like you! Good job!");
    } else if (userChoose > 10) {
        console.log("I'm sorry, you wrote something above 10. Try again.");
    } else {
        console.log("Sorry! The computer got " + computerChoose +
        " and you got " + userChoose + ". Sorry!");
    }
};

func1();

The problem I have is that once I place a number, say 5, it will stay with that number and every time I run the code it will say "Sorry! The computer got x and you got 5.", even if I put 3.
Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe this happens because i'm trying to change a variable that is inside a function. My main question is how do I globalize a variable that is inside a function, so it can be used and modified in different functions?
Thank you.

A: You can pass the values when you call the function. Try this:
var func1 = function() {
    var userChoose = prompt("Choose a number from 1-10. If you choose the same number as the computer, you win!");
    func2(userChoose);
};

var func2 = function(userChoose ) {
    computerChoose = Math.random();
    computerChoose = Math.round(computerChoose*10)/10;
    if (userChoose === computerChoose) {
        console.log("You won! The computer chose the number " + userChoice + " just like you! Good job!");
    } else if (userChoose > 10) {
        console.log("I'm sorry, you wrote something above 10. Try again.");
    } else {
        console.log("Sorry! The computer got " + computerChoose +
        " and you got " + userChoose + ". Sorry!");
    }
};

func1();

Demo here

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


LCP is a highly crystalline high performance engineering resin, and has been called a "Super Polymer." LCP resins have outstanding strength at extreme temperatures, excellent mechanical property retention, excellent dielectric strength and excellent dimensional stability. Its flow properties allow processing for even the tough, long and narrow molds, and are excellent for high precision, thin walled parts. Due to its inherent flame retardant and high heat resistance, as well as mechanical and physical properties, LCP has been used as a lower cost alternative to ceramics and metals.


Serving as the sequel to last years, Nike LeBron 15 'Equality' release, this year will feature two alternating styles of the LeBron 16 preaching the same message. Like last year, Nike has decided to go with both a black and a white sneaker, but brought a twist to it with two different versions. One pair comes with the left sneaker dressed in white and the right in black, and the other pair donning the opposite look.
Both pairs come in a White and Black color scheme. One set features White on the right shoe with Black laces, and Black on the left with White laces. The other set is complete opposite. Equality driven details are seen on the branded heel pieces, and "EQUALITY" is printed on the outsoles as well as the insoles of each sneaker..
You can grab the Nike LeBron XVI 'Equality' Collection on January 21st at Finishline.com. Make sure you check with your local store for more release details.


Immune Support contains powerful nutrients that your immune system needs to fight off all of the different kinds of attacks on your body – from infection to viruses and bacteria to free radicals to toxic food and substances.
When your immune defenses are weakened by exposure to toxins, extreme temperatures, poor diet, bacteria, viruses, and environmental assaults, you're vulnerable to infection, disease, colds, and all kinds of nasty illnesses.
For support, adults are recommended to take 4 tablets daily, or as directed by a healthcare professional.


text:
11 Hacks To Help You Diffuse Tense Situations
By Kristine Fellizar
Andrew Zaeh for Bustle
The reality is, people are going to get angry with you regardless of whether you give them a legitimate reason to or not. You can't really control how someone feels or reacts. But if you are looking for ways to diffuse a conflict situation, there are a few little tricks you can do to keep the peace.
There are certain types of people that you just can't seem to stay angry with, and the big secret here is, these are people that don't get easily angry themselves, author and life coach Jaya Jaya Myra tells Bustle. "Their general demeanor is always cool and flowing like water, not hot and fiery," Myra says.
According to her, there's a "universal law" you may be familiar with that talks about action and reaction. When one person is angry, it will often trigger anger in the person they're interacting with. People who easily diffuse conflicts are careful to not respond to anger with anger.
"These are the sorts of people you just can't get angry with, because your anger slips away and vanishes when they don't react or respond to it," she says. "People who have the ability to do this generally go with the flow, are not judgmental and generally stay in a good mood, regardless of what other people do."
But as many of us know, it's quite a challenge to stay cool when someone's going off on you. So here are some small things you can try to diffuse conflict when someone is angry at you, according to experts.
1. Have Open Body Language
"The first step to preventing or disarming anger is maintaining an emotionally grounded and defusing demeanor," executive coach and author, Jason Sackett, PCC, LCSW, tells Bustle. That means, let go of your pride and ego, and maintain open body language. "Be ready to listen without defensiveness," he says. When it comes to conflicts, non-verbal cues can say a lot. You don't want to be expressing your feelings to someone who's just going to roll their eyes at you. According to Sackett, this practice can dissolve about 50 percent of the person's anger on the spot.
2. Address The Other Person's Concerns
When someone's mad at you, it's important to neutralize the situation by empathizing with their point of view. Make sure you acknowledge their feelings. You can do this by repeating their concerns back to them to show that you're trying to understand (i.e. "So you're mad because I'm always late"). As Sackett says, "Even if you get it wrong, your sincere attempt to address others' issues and your willingness to listen further will make it very hard for most people to remain angry at you."
3. Make An Approach, Don't Confront
If you want avoid major fights from happening, Varsha Mathur, Founder of KnowingLuxe™ Coaching, tells Bustle, approach rather than confront, There's a big difference between "Hey, can I talk to you about this issue for a moment?" and, "Hey, I need to talk to you about this right now." The latter is more likely to put someone in a defensive mode. "To diffuse a difficult situation or prevent angry fights, it's good to gently approach the person or situation with advance notice," Mathur says. Making a gentle approach will set the tone for how the conversation will go down.
4. Practice Active Listening
"People who are good listeners and can separate their own 'stuff' from those around them are likely diffuse conflicts much faster," licensed professional counselor, Heidi McBain, MA, tells Bustle. Active listening isn't the easiest thing to do when you're in the middle of an argument. Chances are, you're so caught up in your own thoughts and feelings that it's hard to really listen to anyone else. But if you're able to tune out your opinions, really listen to them, and respond in a calm way, you can de-escalate conflicts much more quickly.
5. Use "I" Statements
"The simplest way to tackle any interpersonal problem is to explain how you see the situation and how it makes you feel," Janet Lamwatthananon, ZipRecruiter's career advice expert, tells Bustle. Limit any misunderstandings from escalating by starting statements with "I." For instance, "I feel like people never listen to me when I share ideas." This is a lot softer and a lot less accusatory than, "You never listen to me when I have something to say." When you're able to open up in a more vulnerable way, people are more likely to work with you in a more positive and constructive way.
6. Use Conflict As A Growth Tool And Own Up To Your Mistakes
If you want to diffuse conflict as quickly as possible, don't go into it thinking you're completely blameless. "Use conflict as a growth tool," Candice Thomas, Intuitive Coach and author, tells Bustle. "Think of it as an opportunity to see potential blind spots in your behavior that is keeping you from living the life you want." In order to do this, Thomas says to ask yourself constructive questions like what is my part in this? Will escalating this fight really lead me to what I want? Is it worth it? "Constructive questions take the emotional charge out of conflict and keep us focused on the bigger picture of what we want to experience," she says. If you realize your behavior is making people mad, own up to that. From there, you can decide which changes or slight adjustments you want to make moving forward.
7. Don't Take It Personally And Address Issues As They Come
Ashley Batz/Bustle
Sometimes people will be in a bad mood and will lash out at anyone who crosses their path. Although it's not a good excuse, it's just important to remember not to take things so personally all the time. "Even though something can feel like a personal attack, conflict can be constructive under certain circumstances," Vicki Salemi, career expert at Monster, tells Bustle. For instance, differing opinions can sometimes lead you to more creative thinking and better solutions that everyone is happy with. But also, be sure to bring issues up as soon as possible. Otherwise it will likely snowball, Salemi says.
8. Bring Your Sense Of Humor
"Anger most often occurs when someone gets stuck in an emotional corner," licensed psychotherapist, Ari Hoffman, tells Bustle. "Therefore, when someone is able to help them out of that corner, the anger will settle." One way to do that is to have a sense of humor about the situation. According to Hoffman, people with a good sense of humor are often able to bring something into a situation even if it's really stressful or heated. But of course, if you are going to use humor, be sure to "read the room." Cracking a joke in the middle of a serious argument can make people even more mad. So be sensitive, Hoffman says. Otherwise, it can be really effective in "interrupting the anger process."
9. Find Some Common Ground And Empathize
When it comes to quick conflict resolution, it's important to recognize that everyone is coming from somewhere. Asking someone, "Why are you mad?" in an offhanded way is not going to make them feel better. Telling someone to not get angry because it's "not a big deal" is also not helpful. According to Hoffman, "When an angry person feels that another person is respectfully listening and even empathizing (not necessarily agreeing, just empathizing) the angry person feels [they have] an outlet to that anger and the intense energy behind the anger will often dissipate quickly."
10. Be Humble
A person who is "confidently humble" presents a very low threat to others, Hoffman says. "That person can naturally feel like a safe place for someone who is angry, to be with and relax."
11. Sincerely Apologize
If you want to diffuse any conflict as quickly as possible, say you're sorry and mean it. "Make it clear you do not want to argue, disagree or upset anyone," Lynne Goldberg, event specialist, tells Bustle. It's hard for someone to get more angry with you when you're not adding fuel to the fire.
When someone's angry at you, it can make for a really uncomfortable environment. Again, you can't control how someone reacts to something you did or said. You can be the most lovable and charming personality in the room and you'll still find that someone who might get angry with you. Conflict in life is inevitable. So luckily, there are a few things you can do to minimize drama and de-escalate conflicts as quickly as possible.


text:
Trailblazing Governors
Six Remarkable Women
About Gail Johnson
Women Governors: 1925 to 2011
Women Governors: Ella T. Grasso
Trailblazing Governors: Book Description
Trailblazing Governors: Table of Contents
Trailblazing Governors: Selected References
Trailblazing Governors: The Many People Who Helped Along the Way
Aron, Michael. 1994. Governor's Race: A TV Reporter's Chronicle of the 1993 Florio/Whitman Campaign. Piscataway NJ: Rutgers University Press.
Barbara Lee Family Foundation. Keys to the Governors Office; Cracking the Code; Speaking with Authority; Positioning Women to Lead; and, Turning Point: http://www.barbaraleefoundation.org.
Beard, Patricia. 1996. Growing Up Republican. New York: HarperCollins.
Boxer, Barbara, et. al. 2001. Nine and Counting: The Women of the Senate. New York: Perennial Press.
Braden, Maria. 1996. Women Politicians and the Media. Lexington: University of Kentucky Press.
Bysiewicz, Susan. 1984. Ella: A Biography of Governor Ella Grasso. The Connecticut Consortium for Law and Citizenship Education, Inc.
Cantor, Dorothy W., and Toni Bernay. 1992. Women in Power: The Secrets of Leadership. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
Center for the American Woman and Politics, Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, New Jersey: http://www.cawp.rutgers.edu
Chisholm, Shirley. 1970. Unbought and Unbossed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
Collins, Gail. 2009. When Everything Changed: The Amazing Journey of American Women from 1960 to the Present. New York: Little, Brown and Company.
Duerst-Lahti, Georgia and Rita Mae Kelly, eds. 1995. Gender, Power, Leadership and Governance. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Edelman, Marian Wright. 1992. The Measure of Our Success: A Letter to My Children and Yours. New York: HarperPerennial.
Felix, Antonia. 1996. Christie Todd Whitman: The People's Choice. New York: Pinnacle Books.
Follett, Mary Parker. 1995. Mary Parker Follett: Prophet of Management, A Celebration of Writings from the 1920s, Pauline Graham, ed. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.
Fraas, Elizabeth Duffy, ed. 2006. The Public Papers of Governor Martha Layne Collins: 1983–1987. Lexington, KY: University of Kentucky Press.
Frankl, Viktor E. 1984. Man's Search for Meaning. New York: Washington Square Press.
Freeman, Jo. 2008. We Will Be Heard: Women's struggles for Political Power in the United States. New York: Rowman and Littlefield.
Friedan, Betty. 1963. The Feminine Mystique. New York, W.W. Norton and Company.
Gilligan, Carol. 1982. In a Different Voice: Psychological Theory and Women's Development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Granholm, Jennifer and Dan Mulhern. 2011. A Governor's Story: The Fight for Jobs and America's Economic Future. New York: Public Affairs.
Guzzo, Louis R. 1980. Is It True What They Say About Dixy? Mercer Island, WA: The Writing Works, Inc.
Helgesen, Sally. 1990. The Female Advantage: Women's Ways of Leadership. New York: Doubleday.
hooks, bell. 2009. Feminism is for Everybody: Passionate Politics. Cambridge, MA: South End Press.
Horner, Althea. 1989. The Wish for Power and the Fear of Having It. New York: Jason Aronson.
Jamieson, Kathleen Hall. 1995. Beyond the Double Bind: Women and Leadership. New York: Oxford University Press.
Kornblut, Anne E. 2009. Notes from the Cracked Ceiling: Hillary Clinton, Sarah Palin, and What It Will Take for a Woman to Win. New York: Crown.
Kouzes, James M. and Barry Z. Posner. 1990. The Leadership Challenge: How to Keep Getting Extraordinary Things Done in Organizations. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Kunin, Madeleine M. 1994. Living a Political Life. New York: Vintage Books.
———. 2008. Pearls, Politics and Power: How Women Can Win and Lead. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing Company.
Liswood, Laura A. 1995. Women World Leaders. New York: HarperCollins.
Madsen, Susan R. 2008. Developing Leadership: Learning from the Experiences of Women Governors. New York: University Press of America.
Marshall, Brenda DeVore and Molly A. Mayhead, eds. 2000. Navigating Boundaries: The Rhetoric of Women Governors. Westport, CT: Preager Press.
McClure, Sandy. 1996. Christie Whitman: For the People. New York: Prometheus Books.
Morris, Celia. 1992. Storming the Statehouse: Running for Governor with Ann Richards and Diane Feinstein. New York: Scribner.
Office of the Secretary of State, Washington. 1993. Guide to the Governors' Papers, Volume 6: Dixy Lee Ray: 1977-1981. Olympia, WA: Division of Archives and Records Management,.
Osborne, David and Ted Gabler.1992. Reinventing Government: How the Entrepreneurial Spirit is Transforming the Public Sector. New York: Plume.
Rhode, Deborah L. 2003. The Difference "Difference" Makes: Women and Leadership. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press.
Richards, Ann. 1991. Straight from the Heart: My Life in Politics and Other Places. New York: Simon and Schuster.
Roberts, Barbara K. 2002. Death Without Denial, Grief Without Apology: A Guide for Facing Death and Loss. Troutdale, OR: NewSage Press.
———. 2011. Up the Capitol Steps: A Woman's March to the Governorship. Corvallis, OR: Oregon State University Press.
Sanchez, Leslie. 2009. You've Come a Long Way, Maybe: Sarah, Michelle, Hillary, and the Shaping of the New American Woman. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Schneir, Miriam, ed. 1994. Feminism in Our Time: The Essential Writings, World War II to Present. New York: Vintage Books.
Smith, Frances. 1991. The Little Girl Who Grew Up To Be Governor: Stories from the Life of Martha Layne Collins. Lexington, KY: Denham Publishing Company.
Traister, Rebecca. 2010. Big Girls Don't Cry. New York: Free Press.
Weckworth, Trudy and Al McVay, eds. 1977. Dixy: Her First Year as Governor of the State of Washington. Seattle, WA: Book Publishers Associates.
Weir, Sara J. 1996. "Women Governors: State Executive Leadership with a Feminist Face?" In Women in Politics: Insiders and Outsiders, edited by Lois Duke. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Whitman, Christine Todd. 2005. It's My Party, Too: The Battle for the Heart of the GOP and the Future of America. New York: Penguin.
Wilson, Marie C. 2004. Closing the Leadership Gap: Why Women Can and Must Help Run the World. New York: Viking.
Witt, Linda, Karen Paget, and Glenna Matthews. 1994. Running as a Woman: Gender and Power in American Politics. New York: The Free Press.
Wolf, Naomi. 1993. Fire with Fire: The New Female Power and How It Will Change the 21st Century. New York: Random House.
Wong, Andrea, and Rosario Dawson, eds. 2010. Secrets of Powerful Women: Leading Change for a New Generation. New York: Hyperion.
Academic Centers for Women and Politics
Center for American Women and Politics
Center for Women in Government and Civil Society
Center for Women, Politics and Policy
Women and Politics Institute
Booknotes
Mount Holyoke: Book Notes
Governor Barbara Roberts, Death Without Denial, Grief Without Apology
Governor Barbara Roberts, Up the Capitol Steps
Governor Christine Todd Whitman, It's My Party, Too
Governor Madeleine Kunin, The New Feminist Agenda: Defining the Next Revolution for Women, Work, and Family
Governor Madeleine M. Kunin, Living a Political Life
Governor Madeleine M. Kunin, Pearls Politics & Power: How Women Can Win and Lead
Connecticut Women's Hall of Fame
Governor Barbara Roberts: Capturing Women's History
Guide to Women Leaders
National Women's History Museum
Prominent Americans and Woman Suffrage
Women in Congress
Institute for Women's Policy Research
A Conversation with Arizona's Women Governors
Governor Jennifer Granholm on the Colbert Report
Nikki Haley: On Feminism
Sufferin' til Suffrage
Barbara Lee Family Foundation
Emily's List
The White House Project
Women's National Organizations
National Federation of Democratic Women
National Organization for Women (NOW)
National Women's Political Caucus
National Women's Studies Association
Women's Studies Programs in the U.S.


BGC0000454, vanchrobactin biosynthetic gene cluster from Vibrio anguillarum. Locus 1. Partial MIBiG entry.
vanchrobactin (BGC0000454). Gene Cluster 1. Biosynthetic class = NRP. GenBank AM168450. Click on genes for more information.
1. Balado M et al. (2006) A gene cluster involved in the biosynthesis of vanchrobactin, a chromosome-encoded siderophore produced by Vibrio anguillarum. Microbiology 152(Pt 12):3517-28. doi: 10.1099/mic.0.29298-0.


Consumer prices fell 0.3% over the prior month in December, matching the decline logged in November. December's drop was primarily driven by lower prices for housing and energy, and transport, but was partially offset by higher prices for clothing and footwear.
Inflation softened to 0.7% in December from 0.9% in November. Meanwhile, annual average inflation came in at 0.9% in 2018, up from 0.5% in 2017.
Panelists polled by FocusEconomics expect inflation to average 0.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2020, panelists expect inflation to average 1.0%.


text:
Two families living in the back of a tire shop
We need a lot of things, clothes for the kids and food, but we are getting by.
Safaa and Ahmad are from Homs, Syria and now live in the back of the tire shop where Ahmad's father works, in Saida, Lebanon. "We were registered with the UN but they took us off the list. We used to get food assistance but they stopped it for us and my in-laws," says Safaa.
Safaa's father in law, Said, left Homs and was joined by the rest of the family in Lebanon once bombings started. Two families now live in a small room in the back of the shop where Said works. "A Lebanese guy told him about this place, he told him there was a room he could stay in, with his family," she explains.
Their living conditions are very poor: Ahmad suffers from a form of epilepsy that prevents him from working and providing for his family. "He was born with the illness and it got worse as he grew up. He gets really nervous and he gets epilepsy episodes where his whole body shakes." Safaa's brother in law is also sick and cannot work.
Ahmad has access to the treatment he needs thanks to the support the EU Trust Fund gives to the International Medical Corps (IMC) and its partners on the ground. "The consultation costs 3,000 LL, but for Ahmad's treatment they don't charge us anything," Safaa says. "Before we started going to the Mouwasat clinic, [...] we were buying Ahmad's medicines with our own money." REBAHS, which stands for "Reduced Economic Barriers to Accessing Healthcare Services" is an IMC-led project that focuses on primary healthcare, community healthcare and mental healthcare. Patients pay a moderate fee (i.e. 3,000 LL or €1.8) for consultations, lab diagnostics, test results and medications from the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health's essential medical list.
Ahmad's mother, who underwent a mastectomy and head surgery in the past, is in need of very expensive medications to treat seizures that would otherwise afflict her. "All the money we make from working are used to buy enough food and the rest goes to her treatment. [...] We need a lot of things, clothes for the kids and food, but we are getting by."
When asked if her family would like to go back to Syria, Safaa says: "Our only hope is with God, we don't really know. All Syrians would like to go back to their country so we hope things will get better. [...] We have no home in Syria and here we can afford to live, as long as we are working."


Flickerfest began as a small local festival at Balmain High School in 1991. Over the last 27 years it has grown to become Australia's only Academy© accredited and BAFTA recognised competitive International Short Film Festival with entries coming from filmmakers across the globe.
Flickerfest will present films at 50 venues Australia wide and Kununurra Picture Gardens is proud to have been part of this festival for the past 7 years.
The Kununurra Picture Gardens (KPG), is a unique Kimberley experience - an outdoor cinema where you can pull up in your ute with a bean bag/swag/couch (we've seen them all) and watch a movie under the stars, whilst your mates are in the next row in their deck chairs on the amazing new lawn! You never quite know what will happen when you come along to the cinema.
The KPG is also unique in the fact it is owned and fully operated by volunteers. From the person selling you tickets at the gate or popcorn in the kisok, to our dedicated committee - everydone does it for the love of the movies and the joy of sharing this picturesque location with the world.
This year there will be two different programs of films being screened on two different nights (details will be released closer to the date), so consider coming along to both evenings. Bring a blanket as it can get quite chilly after 7pm.
Available from at the Kununurra Visitors Centre - (08) 9168 1177 and at the gate on the night (CASH ONLY).