text:
'We struggled to find older men to take part in First Dates Ireland'
More episodes, more matches, and there's a gap in the market for over 70s...
Thu, Jan 12, 2017, 06:00 Updated: Thu, Jan 12, 2017, 10:54
Prepare for the return of First Dates with a look back at a classic moment from series one. Video: RTÉ
Maitre d' Mateo Saina has the nickname "the Croatian sensation".
The 'First Dates' menu.
Splash on the aftershave, iron the dress and get out the fake tan: Ireland is doing First Dates a second time around – and there's not a rebound in sight.
There are a few subtle changes. Couples are more embedded into the heart of the restaurant in Dublin's Gibson Hotel, so expect things to get even cosier. The menu has been revamped too, so there's no danger of anyone getting the same "dish" twice.
Hopes are high. Very high. And not just among the daters. "It's all bigger and better," says executive producer Linda Cullen.
Although it is not size that matters – of course – there will be 12 episodes of the new series. It is literally twice as long. Putting bums on seats has been quite an undertaking, but the men and women of Ireland have risen to the challenge. Well, not all the men ....
It was a case of men, your country needs you, when First Dates casting producer Ger Philpott ventured onto Facebook to try to encourage more to apply to be on the show. Why don't as many men as women apply, we ask.
"We generally get some really good women across all ages," says Philpott, giving all the single ladies a shout out. "We got some really good older women, who we couldn't use because we couldn't find older men for them, so then we started looking for the older men."
Did you find them?
"In some cases yes, but not in every case. We had this place called the 'sad wall' where we had people who were really, really good, but we couldn't find matches for them. So then we were sad for them. That is why we called it the sad wall."
Cullen concurs. "We struggled to find older men. I haven't a clue what that's about – maybe women are just generally a bit more open."
When Philpott talks about older women, we ask (for a friend) where does the category of "older" sit on his speed dial? "Well, we had women in their mid-60s down to their 40s. We would have had each decade up to the people in their 60s represented. Some 70-year-old women did apply, but they are not on the programme." Anyone over the age of 70 might think about getting their dating outfit ready for the next series. There may well be a gap in the market.
Hammer and tongues
It is Monday when the Irish Times visits. The First Dates people have been going at it hammer and tongues every day since the previous Thursday. They will wrap up tomorrow. Luckily, the staff still seem loved up in spite of the 14-hour days they have been putting in.
Mateo Saina, the First Dates maitre d' is on the balcony getting some sun (remember that?). The show's absence has made the heart grow fonder and the "Croatian sensation" as he has become known, is really enjoying this series. When he is not putting young (and not-so-young) potential matches at their ease, Saina still togs out for his other job at Marcel's in Dublin city centre, though, so if you are not lucky enough to gratuitously squeeze yourself on to a balcony with him, you know where to go to find him.
Viewers will notice that Ireland's unique take on love, the "craic date", looms even larger this series and Cullen is enjoying Ireland's unique contribution to the franchise.
"The 'craic date' is so apparent this time around," she says. Cullen is still reeling from a recent date when the two lesbians on the date were "hilarious". The smile is still on her face. "That date is so good that it will probably get longer on the show." Just a bit longer, though, she says. "If we wanted we could do a whole episode with just one date, but the people who came up with the format think three or four dates a show works best and they are the experts."
Philpott confirms that there have been a good few craic dates already. "We had one really good craic date last year, which was Darryl and Amy, [he even remembers the daters' names, which is a good signifier of the care the producers take]. But we've had even more craic dates this year. There have been several, but obviously we can't tell you their names yet."
He is such a tease. Patience will have to be a virtue.
But what exactly is a craic date, we ask, trying to get everything straight. "Just the fun and the banter. They just kind of bounce off each other and it is brilliant when you see it happening," he says. The producers have put a lot of time into putting people together. "When you see it coming together that is brilliant and then it goes to another level."
The late Eamon Andrews was famous for his big, red file on This is Your Life, and Cullen has a similar one. She will show, but she will not tell. It is top secret and The Irish Times is not getting a peak. All she will say is the red file contains the crew's meticulous research on each person which will result in their coupling for their first date, but that will have to do.
The passion is still there. "We have stand-up rows about who would be the best date for who. We want to find every person another person they can have a future," says Cullen.
Part of Philpott's job, a part he takes very seriously First Daters will be pleased to hear, is to do all the legwork that goes into matching two people up. "We do a lot of arguing among the production staff because you might come across somebody who floats your boat and then because there is a limited pool of people who make it through to the next stage, you will fight for that person. But at the end of the day, the idea is to produce the best possible programme, so you might have to relinquish one of your favourites to another person because it makes a better date."
Who would you put together and who wouldn't you, we ask?
"Well someone might apply and you might think she sounds a bit of craic or she has a few air miles under her arm..."
"There might be a bit of horse trading between all the producers, too. We designed the application process so that the first thing people do after putting their name down is to choose 50 words that they feel describe them. And actually that's a really good and failsafe way of finding people because if they can't sell themselves in 50 words, they don't make it."
The first Irish series of First Dates seemed to reassure the dating public that it was indeed a show motivated by a desire to match not mock. There were pluses and minuses to this added public interest in being on the show. "It attracted a lot of good people, but also a lot of people who maybe weren't that good. Our job was to sift through that. We would be chatting about the people who had applied – did you see the great guy? Look at this women, she is really interesting. So we are constantly bouncing ideas for people and dates off each other."
And it looks like the process is working.
"People ask if anyone has got together yet and I tell them 'It's called First Dates'. We have hopes for people to takes things on and we've had lots of successes so far this series."
Successes? Our ears prick up.
"We're really high on the match front this year," Philpott confirms. "We have had 23 dates which were matches so far. Obviously, when anyone comes in we follow up the next day and find out what has happened."
Things seems to be hotting up already.
"We had a couple who went on a date early on Saturday, but then they went out together afterwards and they are going out again later this week. And we have had one couple who have been out on two dates already. Since last Friday. It is quite encouraging."
It certainly is encouraging.
Culinary coup
Just to whet our appetite further for the new series we ask to get a copy of the First Dates menu. We have often seen couples breaking bread together but have only been about to guess about the actual dishes and the actual prices. This is a culinary coup.
Menu in hand, I sit down with Philpott to select our meal for our fantasy First Date.
He hands me the cocktail menu. I worry that I will be drunk by the end of the date. "Oh I get drunk easily too," says Philpott, ever the gentleman. On paper, this match might never have happened, but we already have a bucket load in common. Unfortunately neither of us are able to handle that bucketload, particularly when it is full of spirits.
Philpott asks me to go first. I lament the fact that there isn't a Sex on the Beach on the cocktail list, but this is Dublin 2016, not Torremolinos 1998. I settle for a Flirtini, but only because I want to say the word. Ger (we are now on fantasy First Date first-name terms) tells me that the Flirtini has been a rip-roaring success with the First Daters and Ethan Miles, the bearded barman, does them brilliantly,
What actually is a Flirtini? It's got vodka and prosecco and some "liqueury things" in it, says Philpott. I am quite a fan of prosecco, so I'm sold. "Well if you're having a Flirtini, I'm having a really macho Whiskey Sour," he says.
Are we going to eat, he asks? "You can have what you want." This date is going swimmingly. I seem to be in charge.
I let Ger choose first, because I am an egalitarian. He goes for the duck liver. I plump for the salad because I'm being coy and trying to make him think he's out with Victoria Beckham.
The whole team sat down and worked the menu out, he says. There isn't any steak, though, which is surprising. He tells me that the rib of beef option made the kitchen and producers' lives easier as it can only be cooked one way, unlike steak, which can cause all sorts of timing issues. There's also a vegetarian option, so there's something for everyone in the audience. "And we've had some vegan daters, too."
I go for the chicken. "I knew you were going to go for the chicken, I can tell you are a chicken kind of girl," says Ger. I have no idea what he means, but I'm thinking positive.
Lovely barman Ethan saunters over. We're busy doing an interview/dating, so we can't talk, we tell him. The fantasy Flirtinis will have to suffice.
Ger goes for the slow-cooked beef. He says Aberdeen Angus very sensually. Dessert? "I think we should share, Ger because it rhymes," I say. We have the Eton Mess, which might be the nearest either of us ever get to Eton we agree.
Sharing a dessert is a good idea for a First Date, Ger tells me. "If you get through that, I'm sure we'd have a cracking date, Anthea." I am blushing. Fantasy First Dates has arrived and neither of us has spent a penny. This could be a match made in heaven.
Philpott leaves to meet and greet his next First Dater, who is about to arrive. He is a natural, putting the nervous gentleman at his ease while asking questions "to get them asking questions", he explains.
So has First Dates Ireland executive producer Cullen bought a hat yet – Cilla Black-style? We ask.
She hasn't, but if I was Philip Treacy I'd be starting work now.
The new series of First Dates Ireland starts on RTE2 on Thursday, January 19th.
The staff: The head of the First Dates restaurant – as anyone who has watched love god Fred Sirieix, maître d' of the London-set Channel 4 version will know – is vital.
Mateo Saina is Ireland's own Fred. Not French, he is Croatian, which has won him the nickname "the Croatian sensation". Saina is a professional. He has waited and hosted and is general manager of Marcel's on Merrion Row in Dublin. He attended an open audition for the role and the rest is history.
Head barman Ethan Miles is a Canadian, who gives a good cocktail. The bearded one was spotted and recruited especially for the programme in Dublin's South William Street.
DO THE MATHS
There are 12 episodes of First Dates Ireland this series. There are two teams – a red and a blue team – looking after different dates.
Each of the dates last for 90 minutes. "We thought two hours was too long for a first date and people almost come full circle," says Cullen.
There have been 11 first dates on each of the six days of filming. "That's 66 priority dates," she says. "And not forgetting that we have 500 to 600 background dates too."
All of the dates are background checked. "We have a legal and social media checker and we also have a psychologist at hand if they are needed," says Philpott.
By day five, the series had produced 23 dates which were matches. "Obviously when anyone comes in, we follow up the next day and find out what has happened," Philpott tells The Irish Times.
WHICH DATE IS FOR YOU?
The producers have identified different categories of dates.
Chemistry dates are where each dater has an interesting back story that will appeal to the other.
Golden dates are for more mature applicants.
Lesbian dates. Gay dates. Bisexual dates. Gender fluid dates. The producers are listening without prejudice.
The craic date is the show's one concession to Irishness and is a special category for first daters who are just doing it to "have a bit of craic". Here love is secondary and fun is primary.
First daters were drawn from all corners of Ireland – "north, south, east and west," according to casting producer Philpott.
MATCHES MADE IN HEAVEN?
"People ask if anyone has got together yet, but I tell them 'It's called FIRST DATES'. We have hopes for people to go on and we've had lots of successes so far this series. We're really high on the match front."
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Ethan Miles
Fred Sirieix
Mateo Saina
Ger Philpott
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Edmond Halley
Portrait of Halley (c. 1690)
8 November [O.S. 29 October] 1656[a]
Haggerston, Middlesex, England
25 January 1742 [O.S. 14 January 1741] (aged 85)
Greenwich, Kent, England
St. Margaret's, Lee, South London
The Queen's College, Oxford
Mary Tooke
Edmond Halley (d. 1742)
Margaret (d. 1713)
Richelle (d. 1748)
Astronomy, geophysics, mathematics, meteorology, physics, cartography
Royal Observatory, Greenwich
Portrait by Richard Phillips, before 1722
Edmond[1] (or Edmund)[2] Halley FRS (/ˈhæli/;[3][4] 8 November [O.S. 29 October] 1656[a] – 25 January 1742 [O.S. 14 January 1741])[6][7] was an English astronomer, geophysicist, mathematician, meteorologist, and physicist. He was the second Astronomer Royal in Britain, succeeding John Flamsteed in 1720.
From an observatory he constructed on Saint Helena in 1676–77, Halley catalogued the southern celestial hemisphere and recorded a transit of Mercury across the Sun. He realised that a similar transit of Venus could be used to determine the distances between Earth, Venus, and the Sun. Upon his return to England, he was made a fellow of the Royal Society, and with the help of King Charles II, was granted a master's degree from Oxford.
Halley encouraged and helped fund the publication of Isaac Newton's influential Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica (1687). From observations Halley made in September 1682, he used Newton's laws of motion to compute the periodicity of Halley's Comet in his 1705 Synopsis of the Astronomy of Comets.[b] It was named after him upon its predicted return in 1758, which he did not live to see.
Beginning in 1698, Halley made sailing expeditions and made observations on the conditions of terrestrial magnetism. In 1718, he discovered the proper motion of the "fixed" stars.
Halley was born in Haggerston in Middlesex. According to Halley, his birthdate was 8 November [O.S. 29 October] 1656.[5] His father, Edmond Halley Sr., came from a Derbyshire family and was a wealthy soap-maker in London.[8] As a child, Halley was very interested in mathematics. He studied at St Paul's School,[8] where he developed his initial interest in astronomy, and was elected captain of the school in 1671.[5] On 3 November [O.S. 24 October] 1672, Halley's mother, Anne Robinson, died.[5] In July 1673,[5] he began studying at The Queen's College, Oxford.[8] Halley took a 24-foot-long telescope with him, apparently paid for by his father.[9] While still an undergraduate, Halley published papers on the Solar System and sunspots.[10] In March 1675, he wrote to John Flamsteed, the Astronomer Royal (England's first), telling him that the leading published tables on the positions of Jupiter and Saturn were erroneous, as were some of Tycho Brahe's star positions.[11]
Publications and inventions
Site of Halley's Observatory in Saint Helena
In 1676, Flamsteed helped Halley publish his first paper, titled "A Direct and Geometrical Method of Finding the Aphelia, Eccentricities, and Proportions of the Primary Planets, Without Supposing Equality in Angular Motion", about planetary orbits, in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.[11] Influenced by Flamsteed's project to compile a catalogue of stars of the northern celestial hemisphere, Halley proposed to do the same for the southern sky,[12] dropping out of school to do so. He chose the south Atlantic island of Saint Helena (west of Africa), from which he would be able to observe not only the southern stars, but also some of the northern stars with which to cross-reference them.[13] King Charles II supported his endeavour.[14] Halley sailed to the island in late 1676, then set up an observatory with a large sextant with telescopic sights.[15] Over a year, he made observations with which he would produce the first catalogue of the southern sky,[16] and observed a transit of Mercury across the Sun. Focusing on this latter observation, Halley realised that observing the solar parallax of a planet—more ideally using the transit of Venus, which would not occur within his lifetime—could be used to trigonometrically determine the distances between Earth, Venus, and the Sun.[17][c]
Halley returned to England in May 1678, and used his data to produce a map of the southern stars.[19] Oxford would not allow Halley to return because he had violated his residency requirements when he left for Saint Helena. He appealed to Charles II, who signed a letter requesting that Halley be unconditionally awarded his Master of Arts degree, which the college granted on 3 December 1678.[20] Just a few days before,[21] Halley had been elected as a fellow of the Royal Society, at the age of 22.[22] In 1679, he published Catalogus Stellarum Australium ('A catalogue of the stars of the South'), which includes his map and descriptions of 341 stars.[19][23][d] Robert Hooke presented the catalogue to the Royal Society.[16] In mid-1679, Halley went to Danzig (Gdańsk) on behalf of the Society to help resolve a dispute: because astronomer Johannes Hevelius' observing instruments were not equipped with telescopic sights, Flamsteed and Hooke had questioned the accuracy of his observations; Halley stayed with Hevelius and checked his observations, finding that they were quite precise.[24]
By 1681, Giovanni Domenico Cassini had told Halley of his theory that comets were objects in orbit.[25] In September 1682, Halley carried out a series of observations of what became known as Halley's Comet; his name became associated with it because of his work on its orbit and predicting its return in 1758[26] (which he did not live to see). In early 1686, Halley was elected to the Royal Society's new position of secretary, requiring him to give up his fellowship and manage correspondence and meetings, as well as edit the Philosophical Transactions.[27][e] Also in 1686, Halley published the second part of the results from his Helenian expedition, being a paper and chart on trade winds and monsoons. The symbols he used to represent trailing winds still exist in most modern day weather chart representations. In this article he identified solar heating as the cause of atmospheric motions. He also established the relationship between barometric pressure and height above sea level. His charts were an important contribution to the emerging field of information visualisation.[28]
Halley spent most of his time on lunar observations, but was also interested in the problems of gravity. One problem that attracted his attention was the proof of Kepler's laws of planetary motion. In August 1684, he went to Cambridge to discuss this with Isaac Newton, much as John Flamsteed had done four years earlier, only to find that Newton had solved the problem, at the instigation of Flamsteed with regard to the orbit of comet Kirch, without publishing the solution. Halley asked to see the calculations and was told by Newton that he could not find them, but promised to redo them and send them on later, which he eventually did, in a short treatise titled On the motion of bodies in an orbit. Halley recognised the importance of the work and returned to Cambridge to arrange its publication with Newton, who instead went on to expand it into his Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica published at Halley's expense in 1687.[29] Halley's first calculations with comets were thereby for the orbit of comet Kirch, based on Flamsteed's observations in 1680–1681.[f] Although he was to accurately calculate the orbit of the comet of 1682, he was inaccurate in his calculations of the orbit of comet Kirch. They indicated a periodicity of 575 years, thus appearing in the years 531 and 1106, and presumably heralding the death of Julius Caesar in a like fashion in 45 BCE. It is now known to have an orbital period of circa 10,000 years.
In 1691, Halley built a diving bell, a device in which the atmosphere was replenished by way of weighted barrels of air sent down from the surface.[31] In a demonstration, Halley and five companions dived to 60 feet (18 m) in the River Thames, and remained there for over an hour and a half. Halley's bell was of little use for practical salvage work, as it was very heavy, but he made improvements to it over time, later extending his underwater exposure time to over 4 hours.[32] Halley suffered one of the earliest recorded cases of middle ear barotrauma.[31] That same year, at a meeting of the Royal Society, Halley introduced a rudimentary working model of a magnetic compass using a liquid-filled housing to damp the swing and wobble of the magnetised needle.[33]
In 1691, Halley sought the post of Savilian Professor of Astronomy at Oxford. While a candidate for the position, Halley faced the animosity of the Astronomer Royal, John Flamsteed, and the Anglican Church questioned his religious views,[g] largely on the grounds that he had doubted the Earth's age as given in the Bible.[34][h] After Flamsteed wrote to Newton to rally support against Halley, Newton wrote back in hopes of reconciliation, but was unsuccessful.[34] Halley's candidacy was opposed by both the Archbishop of Canterbury, John Tillotson, and Bishop Stillingfleet, and the post went instead to David Gregory, who had Newton's support.[37]
In 1692, Halley put forth the idea of a hollow Earth consisting of a shell about 500 miles (800 km) thick, two inner concentric shells and an innermost core.[38] He suggested that atmospheres separated these shells, and that each shell had its own magnetic poles, with each sphere rotating at a different speed. Halley proposed this scheme to explain anomalous compass readings. He envisaged each inner region as having an atmosphere and being luminous (and possibly inhabited), and speculated that escaping gas caused the aurora borealis.[39] He suggested, "Auroral rays are due to particles, which are affected by the magnetic field, the rays parallel to Earth's magnetic field."[40]
In 1693 Halley published an article on life annuities, which featured an analysis of age-at-death on the basis of the Breslau statistics Caspar Neumann had been able to provide. This article allowed the British government to sell life annuities at an appropriate price based on the age of the purchaser. Halley's work strongly influenced the development of actuarial science. The construction of the life-table for Breslau, which followed more primitive work by John Graunt, is now seen as a major event in the history of demography.
The Royal Society censured Halley for suggesting in 1694 that the story of Noah's flood might be an account of a cometary impact.[41][failed verification – see discussion] A similar theory was independently suggested three centuries later, but is generally rejected by geologists.[42]
In 1696, Newton was appointed as warden of the Royal Mint and nominated Halley as deputy comptroller of the Chester mint. Halley spent two years supervising coin production. While there, he caught two clerks pilfering precious metals. He and the local warden spoke out about the scheme, unaware that the local master of the mint was profiting from it.[43]
In 1698, the Czar of Russia (later known as Peter the Great) was on a visit to England, and hoped Newton would be available to entertain him. Newton sent Halley in his place. He and the Czar bonded over science and brandy. According to one disputed account, when both of them were drunk one night, Halley jovially pushed the Czar around Deptford in a wheelbarrow.[44]
Exploration years
Halley's 1701 map showing isogonic lines of equal magnetic declination in the Atlantic Ocean.
In 1698, at the behest of King William III, Halley was given command of the Paramour, a 52 feet (16 m) pink, so that he could carry out investigations in the South Atlantic into the laws governing the variation of the compass, as well as to refine the coordinates of the English colonies in the Americas.[45] On 19 August 1698, he took command of the ship and, in November 1698, sailed on what was the first purely scientific voyage by an English naval vessel. Unfortunately problems of insubordination arose over questions of Halley's competence to command a vessel. Halley returned the ship to England to proceed against officers in July 1699. The result was a mild rebuke for his men, and dissatisfaction for Halley, who felt the court had been too lenient.[46] Halley thereafter received a temporary commission as a captain in the Royal Navy, recommissioned the Paramour on 24 August 1699 and sailed again in September 1699 to make extensive observations on the conditions of terrestrial magnetism.[8] This task he accomplished in a second Atlantic voyage which lasted until 6 September 1700, and extended from 52 degrees north to 52 degrees south.[8] The results were published in General Chart of the Variation of the Compass (1701).[8] This was the first such chart to be published and the first on which isogonic, or Halleyan, lines appeared.[47][48] The use of such lines inspired later ideas such as those of isotherms by Alexander von Humboldt in his maps.[49] In 1701, Halley made a third and final voyage on the Paramour to study the tides of the English Channel.[50] In 1702, he was dispatched by Queen Anne on diplomatic missions to other European leaders.[50]
Plaque in South Cloister of Westminster Abbey
The preface to Awnsham and John Churchill's collection of voyages and travels (1704), supposedly written by John Locke or by Halley, valourised expeditions such as these as part of a grand expansion of European knowledge of the world:
What was cosmography before these discoveries, but an imperfect fragment of a science, scarce deserving so good a name? When all the known world was only Europe, a small part of Africk, and the lesser portion of Asia; so that of this terraqueous globe not one sixth part had ever been seen or heard of. Nay so great was the ignorance of man in this particular, that learned persons made a doubt of its being round; others no less knowing imagin'd all they were not acquainted with, desart and uninhabitable. But now geography and hydrography have receiv'd some perfection by the pains of so many mariners and travelers, who to evince the rotundity of the earth and water, have sail'd and travell'd round it, as has been here made appear; to show there is no part uninhabitable, unless the frozen polar regions, have visited all other countries, tho never so remote, which they have found well peopl'd, and most of them rich and delightful…. Astronomy has receiv'd the addition of many constellations never seen before. Natural and moral history is embelish'd with the most beneficial increase of so many thousands of plants it had never before receiv'd, so many drugs and spices, such variety of beasts, birds and fishes, such rarities in minerals, mountains and waters, such unaccountable diversity of climates and men, and in them of complexions, tempers, habits, manners, politicks, and religions…. To conclude, the empire of Europe is now extended to the utmost bounds of the earth, where several of its nations have conquests and colonies. These and many more are the advantages drawn from the labours of those, who expose themselves to the dangers of the vast ocean, and of unknown nations; which those who sit still at home abundantly reap in every kind: and the relation of one traveler is an incentive to stir up another to imitate him, whilst the rest of mankind, in their accounts without stirring a foot, compass the earth and seas, visit all countries, and converse with all nations.[51]
Edmond Halley's tombstone, re-positioned at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich; he is not buried there, but at St Margaret's, Lee, some 30 minutes' walk away to the south
Life as an academic
In November 1703, Halley was appointed Savilian Professor of Geometry at the University of Oxford, his theological enemies, John Tillotson and Bishop Stillingfleet having died. In 1705, applying historical astronomy methods, he published the paper Astronomiae cometicae synopsis (A Synopsis of the Astronomy of Comets); in this, he stated his belief that the comet sightings of 1456, 1531, 1607, and 1682 were of the same comet, and that it would return in 1758.[52][b] Halley did not live to witness the comet's return, but when it did, the comet became generally known as Halley's Comet.
By 1706 Halley had learned Arabic and completed the translation started by Edward Bernard[54] of Books V–VII of Apollonius's Conics from copies found at Leiden and the Bodleian Library at Oxford. He also completed a new translation of the first four books from the original Greek that had been started by the late David Gregory. He published these along with his own reconstruction of Book VIII[55] in the first complete Latin edition in 1710. The same year, he received an honorary degree of doctor of laws from Oxford.[8]
In 1716, Halley suggested a high-precision measurement of the distance between the Earth and the Sun by timing the transit of Venus. In doing so, he was following the method described by James Gregory in Optica Promota (in which the design of the Gregorian telescope is also described). It is reasonable to assume Halley possessed and had read this book given that the Gregorian design was the principal telescope design used in astronomy in Halley's day.[56] It is not to Halley's credit that he failed to acknowledge Gregory's priority in this matter. In 1717–18 he discovered the proper motion of the "fixed" stars (publishing this in 1718)[57] by comparing his astrometric measurements with those given in Ptolemy's Almagest. Arcturus and Sirius were two noted to have moved significantly, the latter having progressed 30 arc minutes (about the diameter of the moon) southwards in 1800 years.[58]
In 1720, together with his friend the antiquarian William Stukeley, Halley participated in the first attempt to scientifically date Stonehenge. Assuming that the monument had been laid out using a magnetic compass, Stukeley and Halley attempted to calculate the perceived deviation introducing corrections from existing magnetic records, and suggested three dates (460 BC, AD 220 and AD 920), the earliest being the one accepted. These dates were wrong by thousands of years, but the idea that scientific methods could be used to date ancient monuments was revolutionary in its day.[59]
Halley's grave
Halley succeeded John Flamsteed in 1720 as Astronomer Royal, a position Halley held until his death in 1742 at the age of 85.[12] He was buried in the graveyard of the old church of St Margaret's, Lee (since rebuilt), at Lee Terrace, Blackheath.[60] He was interred in the same vault as the Astronomer Royal John Pond; the unmarked grave of the Astronomer Royal Nathaniel Bliss is nearby.[61] His original tombstone was transferred by the Admiralty when the original Lee church was demolished and rebuilt – it can be seen today on the southern wall of the Camera Obscura at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich. His marked grave can be seen at St Margaret's Church, Lee Terrace.[62][63]
Halley married Mary Tooke in 1682 and settled in Islington. The couple had three children.[10]
Named after Edmond Halley
Halley's map of the path of the Solar eclipse of 3 May 1715 across England
Halley's Comet (orbital period (approximately) 75 years)
Halley (lunar crater)
Halley (Martian crater)
Halley Research Station, Antarctica
Halley's method, for the numerical solution of equations
Halley Street, in Blackburn, Victoria, Australia
Edmund Halley Road, Oxford Science Park, Oxford, OX4 4DQ UK
Edmund Halley Drive, Reston, Virginia, United States
Edmund Halley Way, Greenwich Peninsula, London
Halley's Mount, Saint Helena (680m high)
Halley Drive, Hackensack, New Jersey, intersects with Comet Way on the campus of Hackensack High School, home of the Comets
Rue Edmund Halley, Avignon, France
The Halley Academy, a school in London, England
Halley House School, Hackney London (2015)
Halley Gardens, Blackheath, London.
Pronunciation and spelling
There are three pronunciations of the surname Halley. The most common, both in Great Britain[3] and in the United States,[4] is /ˈhæli/ (rhymes with "valley"). This is the personal pronunciation used by most Halleys living in London today.[64] The alternative /ˈheɪli/ is often preferred for the man and the comet by those who grew up with rock and roll singer Bill Haley, who called his backing band his "Comets" after the common pronunciation of Halley's Comet in the United States at the time.[65] Colin Ronan, one of Halley's biographers, preferred /ˈhɔːli/. Contemporary accounts spell his name Hailey, Hayley, Haley, Haly, Halley, Hawley and Hawly, and presumably pronunciations varied similarly.[66]
As for his given name, although the spelling "Edmund" is quite common, "Edmond" is what Halley himself used, according to a 1902 article,[1] though a 2007 International Comet Quarterly article disputes this, commenting that in his published works, he used "Edmund" 22 times and "Edmond" only 3 times,[67] with several other variations used as well, such as the Latinised "Edmundus". Much of the debate stems from the fact that, in Halley's own time, English spelling conventions were not yet standardised, and so he himself used multiple spellings.[2]
In popular media
Halley is voiced by Cary Elwes in the 2014 documentary series Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey.
A fictional version of Halley appears in The Magnus Archives, a horror podcast.
Actor John Wood was cast as Edmond Halley in the TV series, Longitude in 2000.[68]
History of geomagnetism
^ a b This date is by Halley's own account, but is otherwise unconfirmed.[5]
^ a b This was perhaps the first astronomical mystery solved using Newton's laws by a scientist other than Newton.[53]
^ He wrote as late as 1716 in hopes of a future expedition to make these observations.[18]
^ This contribution caused Flamsteed to nickname Halley "the southern Tycho".[23] Tycho had catalogued the stars observed by Johannes Hevelius.[24]
^ For his payment, he was given 75 unsold copies of the Society's unsuccessful book The History of Fish, which it had depleted its funds on.[27]
^ Halley asked Newton to obtain Flamsteed's observations for him, as his own relationship with the older astronomer had deteriorated.[30]
^ "To what extent Halley's failure was due the animosity of John Flamsteed or to his stout defence [sic] of his religious belief that not every iota of scripture was necessarily divinely inspired is still a matter of some argument. All Oxford appointees had to assent to the Articles of Religion and be approved by the Church of England. Halley's religious views could not have been too outlandish because the University was happy to grant him another chair 12 years later. ... Halley held liberal religious views and was very outspoken. He believed in having a reverent but questioning attitude towards the eternal problems and had little sympathy for those who unquestioningly accepted dogma. He was certainly not an atheist." Hughes 1985, pp. 198, 201.
^ Halley had noticed that observable geological processes take much longer than implied by the Genesis flood narrative. In attempt to explain the biblical account, Halley had theorized that the gravity of a passing comet could have suddenly raised the oceans in a certain area.[35] Following his failure to obtain the professorship, he investigated ocean salinity as an indicator of the Earth's age, since salt is carried to the ocean by rivers. He estimated the Earth to be over 100 million years old.[36]
^ a b The Times (London) Notes and Queries No. 254, 8 November 1902 p.36
^ a b Hughes, David W.; Green, Daniel W. E. (January 2007). "Halley's First Name: Edmond or Edmund" (PDF). International Comet Quarterly. Harvard University. 29: 14. Bibcode:2007ICQ....29....7H. Might we suggest... simply recogniz[ing] both forms, noting that—in the days when Halley lived—there was no rigid 'correct' spelling, and that this particular astronomer seemed to prefer the 'u' over the 'o' in his published works.
^ a b Jones, Daniel; Gimson, Alfred C. (1977) [1917]. Everyman's English Pronunciation Dictionary. Everyman's Reference Library (14 ed.). London: J. M. Dent & Sons. ISBN 0-460-03029-9.
^ a b Kenyon, John S.; Knott, Thomas A. (1953). A Pronouncing Dictionary of American English. Springfield, MA: Merriam-Webster Inc. ISBN 0-87779-047-7.
^ a b c d e Sagan & Druyan 1997, p. 40.
^ The source of the dates of birth and death is a biography of Edmond Halley written shortly after his death: Biographia Britannica, vol. 4, 1757, pp. 2494-2520. On his tombstone at Lee near Greenwich his year of birth and his year of death were inscribed as follows: Natus est A.C. MDCLVI. Mortuus est A.C. MDCCXLI. Before 1752 the Julian calendar was used in England. Also, the year began on March 25th.
^ "Halley, Edmond". astro.uni-bonn.de.
^ a b c d e f g Clerke, Agnes Mary (1911). "Halley, Edmund" . In Chisholm, Hugh (ed.). Encyclopædia Britannica. 12 (11th ed.). Cambridge University Press. p. 856.
^ Sagan & Druyan 1997, pp. 40–41.
^ a b Oxford Dictionary of National Biography (2004). "Edmond Halley". Westminster Abbey. Retrieved 3 May 2015.
^ a b Sagan & Druyan 1997, p. 41.
^ a b BBC. "Edmond Halley (1656–1742)". Retrieved 28 March 2017.
^ Sagan & Druyan 1997, p. 42.
^ Cook, Alan (2003). "Edmond Halley and Visual Representation in Natural Philosophy". In Lefèvre, Wolfgang; Renn, Jürgen; Schoepflin, Urs (eds.). The Power of Images in Early Modern Science. Basel: Birkhäuser. pp. 251–262. doi:10.1007/978-3-0348-8099-2_13. ISBN 978-3-0348-8099-2. Missing or empty |title= (help)
^ Ridpath, Ian. "Edmond Halley's southern star catalogue". Star Tales. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
^ Jeremiah Horrocks, William Crabtree, and the Lancashire observations of the transit of Venus of 1639, Allan Chapman 2004 Cambridge University Press doi:10.1017/S1743921305001225
^ a b Kanas, Nick (2012). Star Maps: History, Artistry, and Cartography (2nd ed.). Chickester, U.K.: Springer. p. 123. ISBN 978-1-4614-0917-5.
^ O'Connor, J. J.; Robertson, E. F. (January 2000). "Edmond Halley - Biography". Maths History. Retrieved 28 June 2021.
^ Sharp, Tim (11 December 2018). "Edmond Halley: An Extraordinary Scientist and the Second Astronomer Royal". Space.com. Retrieved 28 June 2021.
^ a b Hughes 1985, p. 202.
^ a b Jones, Harold Spencer (1957). "Halley as an Astronomer". Notes and Records of the Royal Society of London. 12 (2): 175–192. doi:10.1098/rsnr.1957.0008. ISSN 0035-9149. JSTOR 530833. S2CID 202574705.
^ Lancaster-Brown, Peter (1985). Halley & His Comet. Blandford Press. pp. 76–78. ISBN 0-7137-1447-6.
^ Halley E. (1686), "An Historical Account of the Trade Winds, and Monsoons, Observable in the Seas between and Near the Tropicks, with an Attempt to Assign the Phisical Cause of the Said Winds", Philosophical Transactions, 16:153–168 doi:10.1098/rstl.1686.0026
^ Peter Ackroyd. Newton. Great Britain: Chatto and Windus, 2006.
^ a b Edmonds, Carl; Lowry, C; Pennefather, John. "History of diving". South Pacific Underwater Medicine Society Journal. 5 (2). Retrieved 17 March 2009.
^ "History: Edmond Halley". London Diving Chamber. Retrieved 6 December 2006.
^ Gubbins, David, Encyclopedia of Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism, Springer Press (2007), ISBN 1-4020-3992-1, ISBN 978-1-4020-3992-8, p. 67
^ Derek Gjertsen, The Newton Handbook, ISBN 0-7102-0279-2, pg 250
^ Halley, E. (1692). "An account of the cause of the change of the variation of the magnetic needle; with an hypothesis of the structure of the internal parts of the earth". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. 16 (179–191): 470–478.
^ Carroll, Robert Todd (13 February 2006). "hollow Earth". Skeptic's Dictionary. Retrieved 23 July 2006.
^ "10 Illuminating Facts about the Northern Lights". Oceanwide Expeditions. Retrieved 24 August 2018.
^ V. Clube and B. Napier, The Cosmic Serpent London: Faber and Faber, 1982.
^ Deutsch, A., C. Koeberl, J.D. Blum, B.M. French, B.P. Glass, R. Grieve, P. Horn, E.K. Jessberger, G. Kurat, W.U. Reimold, J. Smit, D. Stöffler, and S.R. Taylor, 1994, The impact-flood connection: Does it exist? Terra Nova. v. 6, pp. 644–650.
^ Halley, Edmond (1982). The Three Voyages of Edmond Halley in the Paramore, 1698–1701. UK: Hakluyt Society. pp. 129–131. ISBN 0-904180-02-6.
^ Cook, Alan (12 April 1997). Edmond Halley: Charting the Heavens and the Seas (1 ed.). Oxford USA: Oxford University Press. ISBN 0198500319. Retrieved 5 January 2015.
^ Cook, Alan (2001). "Edmond Halley and the Magnetic Field of the Earth". Notes and Records of the Royal Society of London. 55 (3): 473–490. doi:10.1098/rsnr.2001.0158. ISSN 0035-9149. JSTOR 531953. S2CID 122788971.
^ Robinson, A. H.; Wallis, Helen M. (1967). "Humboldt's Map of Isothermal Lines: A Milestone in Thematic Cartography". The Cartographic Journal. 4 (2): 119–123. doi:10.1179/caj.1967.4.2.119. ISSN 0008-7041.
^ Halley or Locke,'A Collection of Voyages and Travels, some now first printed from manuscript', Preface, p.lxxiii
^ M.B. Hall, 'Arabick Learning in the Correspondence of the Royal Society, 1660–1677', The 'Arabick' Interest of the Natural Philosophers in 17th-Century England, p.154
^ Michael N. Fried, 'Edmond Halley's Reconstruction of the Lost Book of Apollonius's Conics: Translation and Commentary', Spring 2011
^ Wakefield, Julie; Press, Joseph Henry (2005). Halley's Quest: A Selfless Genius and His Troubled Paramore. USA: National Academies Press. ISBN 0309095948. Retrieved 5 January 2015.
^ Aitken, Robert G. (October 1942). "Edmund Halley and Stellar Proper Motions". Astronomical Society of the Pacific Leaflets. SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS). 4 (164): 108. Bibcode:1942ASPL....4..103A. Retrieved 27 June 2021 – via Harvard.edu.
^ Holberg, Jay B. (2007). Sirius: Brightest Diamond in the Night Sky. Chichester, UK: Praxis Publishing. pp. 41–42. ISBN 978-0-387-48941-4.
^ Johnson, Anthony, Solving Stonehenge, The New Key to an Ancient Enigma(Thames & Hudson 2008) ISBN 978-0-500-05155-9
^ "Location of Edmond Halley's tomb". shadyoldlady.com. The Shady Old Lady's guide to London. Retrieved 5 January 2015.
^ Halley's gravesite is in a cemetery at the junction of Lee Terrace and Brandram Road, across from the Victorian Parish Church of St Margaret. The cemetery is a 30-minute walk from the Greenwich Observatory.
^ "Photograph of Edmond Halley's Tombstone". flamsteed.org. Flamsteed Society. Retrieved 5 January 2015.
^ Redfern, Dave (Summer 2004). Doing the Halley Walk (Issue 14 ed.). London: Horizons. Retrieved 5 January 2015.
^ Ian Ridpath. "Saying Hallo to Halley". Retrieved 8 November 2011.
^ "Guide Profile: Bill Haley". Oldies.about.com. Archived from the original on 21 January 2012. Retrieved 8 November 2011.
^ "Science: Q&A". The New York Times. 14 May 1985. Retrieved 8 November 2011.
^ Hughes, David W.; Green, Daniel W. E. (January 2007). "Halley's First Name: Edmond or Edmund" (PDF). International Comet Quarterly. Harvard University. 29: 7. Bibcode:2007ICQ....29....7H.
^ "Longitude © (1999)". Retrieved 22 June 2021.
Hughes, David W. (August 1985). "Edmond Halley, Scientist" (PDF). Journal of the British Astronomical Association. London, UK: British Astronomical Association. 95 (5): 193. Bibcode:1985JBAA...95..193H.
Sagan, Carl & Druyan, Ann (1997). Comet. New York: Random House. ISBN 978-0-3078-0105-0.
Armitage, Angus (1966). Edmond Halley. London: Nelson.
Coley, Noel (1986). "Halley and Post-Restoration Science". History Today. 36 (September): 10–16.
Cook, Alan H. (1998). Edmond Halley: Charting the Heavens and the Seas. Oxford: Clarendon Press. Bibcode:1998ehch.book.....C.
Ronan, Colin A. (1969). Edmond Halley, Genius in Eclipse. Garden City, New York: Doubleday and Company.
Seyour, Ian (1996). "Edmond Halley – explorer". History Today. 46 (June): 39–44.
Sarah Irving (2008). "Natural science and the origins of the British empire (London,1704), 92–93". A Collection of Voyages and Travels. 3 (June): 92–93.
Edmond Halley Biography (SEDS)
A Halley Odyssey
The National Portrait Gallery (London) has several portraits of Halley: Search the collection
Halley, Edmond, An Estimate of the Degrees of the Mortality of Mankind (1693)
Halley, Edmond, Some Considerations about the Cause of the Universal Deluge (1694)
A synopsis of the astronomy of comets By Edmund Halley, Savilian Professor of Geometry, at Oxford; And Fellow of the Royal Society. Translated from the Original, printed at Oxford. Oxford: John Senex. 1705 – via Internet Archive.
Halley, Edmund, A Synopsis of the Astronomy of Comets (1715) annexed on pages 881 to 905 of volume 2 of The Elements of Astronomy by David Gregory
Material on Halley's life table for Breslau on the Life & Work of Statisticians site: Halley, Edmond
Halley, Edmund, Considerations on the Changes of the Latitudes of Some of the Principal Fixed Stars (1718) – Reprinted in R. G. Aitken, Edmund Halley and Stellar Proper Motions (1942)
O'Connor, John J.; Robertson, Edmund F., "Edmond Halley", MacTutor History of Mathematics archive, University of St Andrews
Online catalogue of Halley's working papers (part of the Royal Greenwich Observatory Archives held at Cambridge University Library)
Halley, Edmond (1724) "Some considerations about the cause of the universal deluge, laid before the Royal Society, on the 12th of December 1694" and "Some farther thoughts upon the same subject, delivered on the 19th of the same month" Philosophical Transactions, Giving Some Account of the Present Undertakings, Studies, and Labours of the Ingenious, in Many Considerable Parts of the World. Vol. 33 p. 118–125. – digital facsimile from Linda Hall Library
Works by Edmond Halley at LibriVox (public domain audiobooks)
Wikiquote has quotations related to: Edmond Halley
Wikisource has original works written by or about:Edmund Halley
Wikisource has original works written by or about:
Edmund Halley
Wikimedia Commons has media related to Edmond Halley.
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Dot-Com Bubble History Remains Relevant
By Shane Barber
Key Points – Dot-Com Bubble History Remains Relevant
Remembering When the Dot-Com Bubble Burst
Will the Dot-Com Bubble Burst Again?
The Environment That Created the Dot-Com Bubble
Using History and Monetary Policy to Make Educated Guesses About the Future
The Dot-Com Bubble burst 22 years ago today in the wake of many economic factors. What parallels are there between then and now? Dean Barber and Bud Kasper discuss the Dot-Com Bubble and why it's still relevant today.
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Show Resources:
Find links to the resources Dean and Bud mentioned on this episode below.
Download: Retirement Plan Checklist
Article: From Quantitative Easing to Quantitative Tightening
Education Center: Articles, Videos, Podcasts, and More
Looking Back on a Monumental Day in the Markets
It was almost exactly 22 years ago on March 10, 2000, that the NASDAQ hit what was then an all-time high of 5,048.62. It was the culmination of years of speculation, IPOs, and venture capital flooding the market into technology companies affectionately referred to as Dot-Coms.
The promise of large gains from this "new economy" captured the imaginations of everyone from Wall Street insiders to the average investor that drove the NASDAQ to that lofty level from below 1,000 just five years earlier. This fervor was given the name of "irrational exuberance" by Alan Greenspan in 1996. As it turns out, he was correct. He was just about four years early in making the call.
So, why would an event that occurred over 22 years ago still be relevant to today's investors? The answer is that even though history doesn't always repeat itself, it often rhymes. And as you'll see, there's a bit of rhyming going on today. So much so, in fact, that financial writers have been concerned about a repeat of the Dot-Com Bubble bursting since early last year.
In researching for this article, I was amazed to see the sheer amount of content out there on this exact subject. While I'll share my analysis and opinions with you on this, there's plenty of additional material that you can read on your own.
To understand why the Dot-Com Bubble may still be relevant today, we need to know what happened to create it and what caused it to burst. So, let's do a deep dive into this. Then, we'll move on to what's happening today.
The Development of the Dot-Com Bubble
The internet became a user-friendly, widely accessible experience with the introduction of the first browser, Mosaic, in January 1993. It was developed by the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (I know, I hadn't heard of it either). Mosaic was the product of the work of Eric Bina and Marc Andreesen.
However, most households still didn't have a computer at that time. In 1984, only 8% of households had one. By 1997, only 36.6% had one. At the peak of the Dot-Com Bubble in 2000, a majority (51%) of households owned a computer.
It's difficult to think of that now, as we're all walking around with a computer in our pockets that is much more powerful than the most powerful PC in 2000. These numbers are relevant when you consider the innovation/adoption curve.
The Composition of a New Technology Costumer Base
When a new technology comes to market, it takes a while to make its way into the mainstream. The first customers are usually the risk takers who have the money and the desire to try new things. They will make up between 2% and 3% of the customer base.
Then, you get the early adopters who are more selective about which technology they use. Therefore, they'll take more time before deciding which new technologies to use. They make up the next 13 to 14% of the customer base of a new technology.
Next comes the early majority, which is the next 34% of the available customer base. They take their time before adopting new technologies and want to understand how it fits into their lives before deciding.
This brings us to the 50% level that is so critical in the innovation/adoption curve. At 50% adoption, all companies in the new technology space have collectively gotten half of the total available customers. At this point, there is inevitably a shakeout where the weaker or less nimble companies either don't make it or are bought up by other companies to capture more of the remaining market share, which is now a finite number.
Assessing the Innovation/Adoption Curve
The survivors will go on to gather their share of the 100% of the customer base, while the others will be forgotten. This rise and fall of the innovation/adoption curve has happened innumerable times in our history and continues to this day.
Without searching the internet, I would bet that no one today (outside of a buggy whip historian…if there is such a thing) can name a single buggy whip company. Most people probably don't even know what a buggy whip is. However, it was a thriving industry at one point in history. It was just displaced by the new technology of the time—the automobile.
You can see that the curve affects every new technology by checking out this list of defunct automobile manufacturers in the United States and comparing it to this much smaller list of current US automobile manufacturers. This is also shown below in Figure 1.
FIGURE 1 | Diffusions of Innovations | LikeFolio
Flash back to the 1990s and you can see the same kind of phenomenon. The Federal Reserve dropped the overnight interest rate from over 9% in October 1990 to below 3% by December 1992.
The Telecommunications Act of 1996 and the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 eased regulations in the telecommunications industry and dropped the marginal tax rates and capital gains tax rate. Thus, the perfect environment for capital flowed into the markets and provided the fuel for the inflation of the Dot-Com Bubble.
FIGURE 2 | Federal Funds Effective Rate | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Below in Figure 3, you can see how quickly the Dot-Com Bubble inflated and catastrophically it burst. The reasons behind the inflation of the bubble are what we'll discuss next.
FIGURE 3 | The Rise and Fall | Global Entrepreneurship Institute
Venture Capital investments in the late 1990s—outlined in Figure 4— absolutely exploded. It seems like it didn't matter what the venture was, someone was willing to pour money into it.
FIGURE 4 | Total U.S. Venture Capital Investments | PwC MoneyTree
Get Big Fast
This is a key point to what inflated the Dot-Com Bubble. Most, if not all, of the Dot-Com companies that were springing up daily had zero earnings. All they had was an idea. They needed funding to make that idea (hopefully) a reality.
The motto for the Dot-Com companies was "Get Big Fast." That required a ton of cash that had to come from somewhere. Venture Capitalists were more than happy to oblige. These companies were devoid of any earnings. They would then have an initial public offering (IPO) and magically go from unknown to being worth millions (sometimes billions) of dollars almost overnight. After that, they would spend those dollars on lavish advertising campaigns to gain attention and users.
The best and worst example of the Dot-Com company commercials occurred in Super Bowl XXXIV in January 2000. It was later dubbed as the Dot-Com Super Bowl because there were 14 different Dot-Com companies that ran ads. Those ads averaged $2.2 million per spot and made up nearly 20% of the advertising during the Super Bowl. Of those 14 companies, only four are still active today. Five were bought by other companies and five others are relegated to the ash heap of history.
FIGURE 5 | Number of IPOs in the United States from 1999 to 2021 | Statista
Do You Remember theGlobe.com?
As you can see above in Figure 5, 1999 and 2000 had a combined 900-plus IPOs in the United States. Most of those IPOs were Dot-Com companies that had been the beneficiaries of the influx of Venture Capital investments. The public bought into the hype as soon as they had the opportunity to buy shares too. Typical IPOs of non-Dot Com companies saw first day increases averaging 16% or so. It was not uncommon, though, for Dot-Com IPOs to double or triple in value on day one. The highest profile example of that is the now defunct company, theGlobe.com.
TheGlobe.com was started by two Cornell students who had purchased an Apple internet server with $15,000 they raised over the 1994 Christmas break. They founded a programming company named WebGenesis and developed theGlobe.com as their primary website. They took the website live on April 1, 1995 and attracted 44,000 visits in their first month. In 1997, they secured financing from Dancing Bear Investments.
Though they had no revenue other than the financing, they took salaries that year exceeding $100,000 and revenues from preferred shares of $500,000 each. Those two Cornell students were 23 at the time. In November 1998, they issued their IPO. The target price was $9 a share. Not surprisingly, given the mania of the time, the first trade was at $87 a share. The trading day ended with the stock at $63.50 per share, a gain of 606% in one day. The pair were worth close to $100 million each by the end of the day.
Margin debt—or borrowing against securities you own to buy more securities—saw a huge increase in the late 1990s as investors sought to capitalize on the Dot-Com mania.
FIGURE 6 | Margin Data Through January 2022 | Advisor Perspectives
The Beginning of the End of the Dot-Com Bubble
Figure 6, above, is part of a larger chart that we'll review in a bit. It clearly shows how much leveraged money was pouring into the market. The peak was $300 billion in 2000's dollars, which equates to $500 billion today.
It's worth noting that margin debt not only peaked in March 2000, but so did the NASDAQ and the amount of Venture capital. The fact that all three of these things peaked at the same time is perfectly evident in hindsight, but almost no one saw it for what it was when it happened. And what it was, was the beginning of the end for the Dot-Com Bubble.
Dell, Cisco, and several other tech companies placed sell orders on their own stock after the March 10 peak, which sparked panic selling among investors. You know, those same fickle people we talked about in my article, War and the Markets. Most of the Dot-Com true believers were undeterred and saw this as an opportunity to buy the dip on what they thought was a normal correction. Sadly, for them, it was not.
The Pin That Popped the Dot-Com Bubble
By the time 2000 rolled around, the Federal Reserve had raised the overnight rate back up to 7%. That made borrowing more expensive and capital less readily available. Slowly but surely, the Venture Capital began to exit, as did the margin debt cash. On their way out the door, they stuck a pin in the Dot-Com Bubble.
The NASDAQ then crashed by 78% over the next two years. It finally bottomed out at 1114.14 on October 9, 2002. In the wake of the bubble bursting, several Dot-Com companies that had supposedly been worth hundreds of millions of dollars became worthless in the span of just a few months. It took 15 years for the NASDAQ to regain the value it had lost from its previous peak in March 2000, retaking that level in April 2015.
The Dot-Com Bubble's Rhyming Relevance
So, what are the reasons all of this is still relevant today? Other than the fact that it looks like history is rhyming, there may not be any reasons. But that fact alone may be the only reason we need.
We've seen this movie before, with some of the same cast. The director may just be different this time. Let's start with the Venture Capital today.
Venture Capital, IPOs Nearly Double from 2020 to 2021
Venture Capital nearly doubled in 2021 from 2020, in deals worth nearly $350 billion. You can see that below in Figure 7 from PitchBook, which tracks Venture Capital deals and activity. Figure 7 shows markedly increased activity from 2018 on, including that big spike in deal value last year. It's impossible to tell if this year will be higher than 2021, but given all the geopolitical uncertainty, I would be surprised if it did. Time will tell. What I do know is that this is quite similar to what we saw the last time Venture Capital was flowing like it did last year.
FIGURE 7 | Venture Capital Investment Nearly Doubles Year-Over-Year | PitchBook
We saw a huge jump in in the IPO space in 2021. It also nearly doubled the activity from 2020, which you can see in Figure 8. 2021 alone saw more than 1999 and 2000 combined.
FIGURE 8 | Annual IPOs, 2000-2022 | Seeking Alpha
But Let's Go Back to Margin Debt
Then, there's margin debt, which is outlined in Figures 9 and 10. Once again, we see a peak in margin debt that occurred last year. Margin debt peaked in October at nearly $1 trillion. It has since been declining and shows no signs of turning around yet.
To be fair, margin debt stats from FINRA only come out monthly. The most recent data (to the end of February) isn't available yet. But nevertheless, there is a clear correlation between margin debt and the market. If that number doesn't turn around, there could be some pain ahead. Time will tell.
FIGURE 9 | FIRNA Margin Debt and the S&P 500 Real Values (Adjusted to Present-Day Dollars) | Advisor Perspectives
FIGURE 10 | Margin Debt Peaked in October and the Markets Followed | YCharts
Then and Now: The Fed Raising the Overnight Rate
And then there's the Federal Reserve and the overnight rate. As you saw earlier in Figure 2, the overnight rate is now at 0% to 0.25%, so basically zero. The last time the Fed tried to raise the overnight rate back to something more normal was back in 2016 to 2018.
When they got to 2%, the market threw a fit and dropped rapidly. That ended up being referred to as the Taper Tantrum. Not only was the Fed raising rates, but they were pulling liquidity from the market at the same time. Sound familiar? 2000?
Well, it's also going to be that way in 2022. The Fed has indicated that it will likely raise rates between four and seven times this year, putting the overnight rate between 1% and 2% by the end of the year.
They have also announced their intentions to begin reducing their balance sheet of $9 trillion and pulling liquidity from the market to slow the inflationary pressure we're currently experiencing. That would mean less money available for speculative investment, less money available for borrowing, and a higher cost to borrow the money that is available.
Oh, and let's not forget higher tax rates on capital gains if you fall into certain income levels. So, peak Venture Capital, peak margin debt, peak IPOs, rising interest rates, and higher taxes.
Will We Recognize the Next Dot-Com Bubble?
Looking back at the Dot-Com Bubble, it's painfully obvious what it was. But will we recognize the next one? The blue line in Figures 11 and 12 are the NASDAQ, which is a technology stock index. Look at the peak in 2000 and then recently. Is that a bubble too?
FIGURE 11 | Dot-Com Bubble of 2000 | YCharts
FIGURE 12 | Dot-Com Bubble of 2022??? | YCharts
Figures 13 and 14 show the three to five years leading up to the 2000 peak and the most recent peak. The divergence between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 in Figure 13 versus Figure 14 is more, because there were no Dot-Com stocks or technology stocks in the Dow or S&P in 2000. So, the Dot-Com Bubble in 2000 really set the NASDAQ apart from its Industrial and large company cousins, the Dow and the S&P 500.
Today, technology companies make up almost 18% of the Dow and 25% of the S&P. The same companies in those two indexes are also in the NASDAQ. That makes the chances of a divergence as big as the one in 2000 unlikely. But the divergence is still quite remarkable, despite the presence of tech in the other two indexes now.
And, with history and monetary policy as our guides, we can make educated guesses about what may be next. Those guesses, at this point, are complicated by the presence of a shooting war between Russia and the Ukraine, which may have consequences well beyond the borders of their respective countries. But setting those things aside for a moment, we may well be at the tipping point for second Dot-Com Bubble.
Things can and do change. We may well see the indexes higher by the end of the year. I hope so. In fact, I expect so. But I think it's important to keep in mind where we are from a historical perspective. And we're closer to the top than we are to the bottom.
FIGURE 13 | 2000 Peak and Rollover | YCharts
In closing, the Dot-Com Bubble of 2000 matters today because of what it can teach us. I hope everything that I've shared has helped give you a more in-depth historical perspective so you can make an informed decision about where you think we are in the cycle.
Have a wonderful week, and thanks for joining me in reviewing the history of the Dot-Com Bubble and how it relates to the present.
–Shane Barber, Partner


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#include "lingvo/core/ops/weighted_mix_record_yielder.h"

#include <error.h>

#include <gmock/gmock.h>
#include <gtest/gtest.h>
#include "absl/flags/flag.h"
#include "lingvo/core/ops/input_common.h"
#include "lingvo/core/ops/record_yielder.h"
#include "lingvo/core/ops/yielder_test_helper.h"
#include "tensorflow/core/lib/core/stringpiece.h"
#include "tensorflow/core/lib/io/path.h"
#include "tensorflow/core/platform/env.h"

namespace tensorflow {
namespace lingvo {

TEST(RecordYielderTest, WeightedMixerBasicTest) {
  const int N = 10;
  const int M = 1000;
  GeneratePlainTextTestData("yielder1", N, M);
  GeneratePlainTextTestData("yielder2", N, M);

  BasicRecordYielder::Options opts1;
  opts1.file_pattern = strings::StrCat(
      "text:", io::JoinPath("/tmp", "yielder1.*"));
  opts1.seed = 301;
  opts1.bufsize = 2000;
  opts1.parallelism = 1;
  BasicRecordYielder* yielder1 = BasicRecordYielder::New(opts1);

  BasicRecordYielder::Options opts2;
  opts2.file_pattern = strings::StrCat(
      "text:", io::JoinPath("/tmp", "yielder2.*"));
  opts2.seed = 301;
  opts2.bufsize = 2000;
  opts2.parallelism = 1;
  BasicRecordYielder* yielder2 = BasicRecordYielder::New(opts2);
  WeightedMixRecordYielder* yielder =
      WeightedMixRecordYielder::New(301, {yielder1, yielder2}, {0.5, 0.5});

  std::vector<string> vals;
  Record record;
  record.source_id = kDefaultSourceId;
  for (int i = 0; i < 2 * N * M; ++i) {
    TF_CHECK_OK(yielder->Yield(&record));
    VLOG(1) << i << " " << record.value;
    vals.emplace_back(string(record.value));
  }

  auto input_source_distribution = ComputeInputSourceDistribution(vals);
  ASSERT_NEAR(input_source_distribution["yielder1"], 0.5, 0.01);
  ASSERT_NEAR(input_source_distribution["yielder2"], 0.5, 0.01);

  std::sort(vals.begin(), vals.end());
  auto new_end = std::unique(vals.begin(), vals.end());

  // Duplicates should be rare in the epoch thanks to 0.5/0.5 mix and equally
  // sized input sources.
  ASSERT_LT(vals.end() - new_end, vals.size() / 100);

  yielder->Close();
}

TEST(RecordYielderTest, WeightedMixerUnevenMixTest) {
  const int N = 10;
  const int M = 1000;
  GeneratePlainTextTestData("yielder1", N, M);
  GeneratePlainTextTestData("yielder2", N, M);

  BasicRecordYielder::Options opts1;
  opts1.file_pattern = strings::StrCat(
      "text:", io::JoinPath("/tmp", "yielder1.*"));
  opts1.seed = 301;
  opts1.bufsize = 2000;
  opts1.parallelism = 1;
  opts1.source_id = 0;
  BasicRecordYielder* yielder1 = BasicRecordYielder::New(opts1);

  BasicRecordYielder::Options opts2;
  opts2.file_pattern = strings::StrCat(
      "text:", io::JoinPath("/tmp", "yielder2.*"));
  opts2.seed = 301;
  opts2.bufsize = 2000;
  opts2.parallelism = 1;
  opts2.source_id = 1;
  BasicRecordYielder* yielder2 = BasicRecordYielder::New(opts2);
  WeightedMixRecordYielder* yielder =
      WeightedMixRecordYielder::New(301, {yielder1, yielder2}, {0.3, 0.7});

  std::vector<string> vals;
  std::vector<int> source_ids;
  Record record;
  record.source_id = kDefaultSourceId;
  for (int i = 0; i < 2 * N * M; ++i) {
    TF_CHECK_OK(yielder->Yield(&record));
    VLOG(1) << i << " " << record.value;
    vals.emplace_back(string(record.value));
    source_ids.emplace_back(record.source_id);
  }

  auto input_source_distribution = ComputeInputSourceDistribution(vals);
  ASSERT_NEAR(input_source_distribution["yielder1"], 0.3, 0.01);
  ASSERT_NEAR(input_source_distribution["yielder2"], 0.7, 0.01);

  int32 sum_of_elems = std::accumulate(source_ids.begin(), source_ids.end(), 0);
  float ratio = (float)(sum_of_elems) / (float)(source_ids.size());
  ASSERT_NEAR(ratio, 0.7, 0.01);

  // Take couple 1024-sized batches from the vals, they should have roughly the
  // same distribution.
  for (int i = 0; i < 5; ++i) {
    auto batch_input_source_distribution =
        ComputeInputSourceDistribution(std::vector<string>(
            vals.begin() + i * 1024, vals.begin() + (i + 1) * 1024));
    ASSERT_NEAR(input_source_distribution["yielder1"], 0.3, 0.01);
    ASSERT_NEAR(input_source_distribution["yielder2"], 0.7, 0.01);
  }

  yielder->Close();
}

TEST(RecordYielderTest, WeightedMixerUnevenInputSourcesTest) {
  const int N = 10;
  const int M = 1000;
  GeneratePlainTextTestData("yielder1", N, M);
  // Second input source is 4 times larger than the first one.
  GeneratePlainTextTestData("yielder2", 4 * N, M);

  BasicRecordYielder::Options opts1;
  opts1.file_pattern = strings::StrCat(
      "text:", io::JoinPath("/tmp", "yielder1.*"));
  opts1.seed = 301;
  opts1.bufsize = 2000;
  opts1.parallelism = 1;
  BasicRecordYielder* yielder1 = BasicRecordYielder::New(opts1);

  BasicRecordYielder::Options opts2;
  opts2.file_pattern = strings::StrCat(
      "text:", io::JoinPath("/tmp", "yielder2.*"));
  opts2.seed = 301;
  opts2.bufsize = 2000;
  opts2.parallelism = 1;
  BasicRecordYielder* yielder2 = BasicRecordYielder::New(opts2);
  WeightedMixRecordYielder* yielder =
      WeightedMixRecordYielder::New(301, {yielder1, yielder2}, {0.5, 0.5});

  std::vector<string> vals;
  Record record;
  record.source_id = kDefaultSourceId;
  // Iterate 8 times the total record count.
  for (int i = 0; i < 8 * 5 * N * M; ++i) {
    TF_CHECK_OK(yielder->Yield(&record));
    VLOG(1) << i << " " << record.value;
    vals.emplace_back(string(record.value));
  }
  auto input_source_distribution = ComputeInputSourceDistribution(vals);
  ASSERT_NEAR(input_source_distribution["yielder1"], 0.5, 0.01);
  ASSERT_NEAR(input_source_distribution["yielder2"], 0.5, 0.01);

  // Each child yielder will be called half the time to maintain 50/50% split.
  // So out of (8 * 5 * N * M) total yields (4 * 5 * N * M) will be yielded by
  // each yielder.
  // Second yielder produces 4 * N * M elements per epoch so it should be at the
  // end of the 5th epoch | start of the 6th epoch.
  EXPECT_TRUE(yielder2->current_epoch() == 5 || yielder2->current_epoch() == 6);
  // First yielder produces 4 times less elements per epoch (N * M) so it
  // should be at the end of the 20th epoch | start of the 21st epoch.
  EXPECT_TRUE(yielder1->current_epoch() == 20 ||
              yielder1->current_epoch() == 21);
  yielder->Close();
}

TEST(RecordYielderTest, RecordYielderRetryLoop) {
  MockRecordYielder yielder1;
  MockRecordYielder yielder2;
  // Yielder1 always returns OK. Yielder2 returns DEADLINE_EXCEEDED 3 times in a
  // row and then returns OK.
  // Each of them yields max of 5 records and then saturates.
  EXPECT_CALL(yielder1, Yield(testing::_))
      .Times(5)
      .WillRepeatedly(testing::Return(Status()));
  EXPECT_CALL(yielder2, Yield(testing::_))
      .Times(5)
      .WillRepeatedly(testing::Return(Status()));
  EXPECT_CALL(yielder2, Yield(testing::_))
      .Times(3)
      .WillRepeatedly(testing::Return(Status(error::DEADLINE_EXCEEDED, "")))
      .RetiresOnSaturation();

  WeightedMixRecordYielder* yielder =
      WeightedMixRecordYielder::New(304, {&yielder1, &yielder2}, {0.5, 0.5});

  Record record;
  record.source_id = kDefaultSourceId;
  for (int i = 0; i < 10; ++i) {
    // Thanks to the seed selected every child yielder will be selected exactly
    // 5 times.
    TF_CHECK_OK(yielder->Yield(&record));
  }
  EXPECT_CALL(yielder1, Close());
  EXPECT_CALL(yielder2, Close());
  yielder->Close();
}

TEST(RecordYielderDeathTest, WeightedMixerInconsistentYieldersAndWeights) {
  RecordYielder* yielder1 = nullptr;  // won't ever be used.
  RecordYielder* yielder2 = nullptr;  // won't ever be used.
  ASSERT_DEATH(WeightedMixRecordYielder::New(301, {yielder1, yielder2}, {0.5}),
               "2 yielders and 1 weights were provided");
}

TEST(RecordYielderDeathTest, WeightedMixerNoYielders) {
  ASSERT_DEATH(WeightedMixRecordYielder::New(301, {}, {}),
               "There should be at least one yielder provided");
}

TEST(RecordYielderDeathTest, WeightedMixerNegativeWeights) {
  RecordYielder* yielder1 = nullptr;  // won't ever be used.
  RecordYielder* yielder2 = nullptr;  // won't ever be used.
  ASSERT_DEATH(
      WeightedMixRecordYielder::New(301, {yielder1, yielder2}, {0.3, -0.1}),
      "All weights should be greater or equal to zero. Got -0.1");
}

}  // namespace lingvo
}  // namespace tensorflow

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


For thwarting cancer growth scientifically, it's been tested. A weight reduction gym isn't cheap. The kidney pain you're feeling is quite much like child birth.
In prescribing CBD products, A physician that specializes can notify you that oil is the most effective for you according to your ailments. There continue to be numerous dispensaries that will concentrate on patients completely, though they will probably be few-and-far-between. Physicians should also remember the marijuana produced today is considerably stronger than the past and utilizing high potency marijuana in combination with controlled substances isn't safe for patients.
Diagnosis At present there isn't any test available that may assure a person is affected by schizophrenia. It can treat conditions that happen often and affect many men and women, together with the symptoms related to life threatening illnesses. Can be utilized to take care of a few different diseases alongside the advantages I've mentioned previously, some studies reveal there are a variety of benefits such as it can be utilised to cut tumor, cancer, diabetes along with many others back. It helps patients to prevent going through dialysis procedure and restores performance of kidneys. In cases that are quite ruthless hospitalization gets mandatory.
Fiber has been demonstrated to nourish your body and your kidneys. Caffeine is among the absolute most efficient components for increasing lipolysis. If that's the situation decreased activity is also related to lowered testosterone levels also.
This informative article will be able to help you produce an equal balance. You are most likely to discover a lot more than your mind. It is quite simple.
You should know the number of experience the business has. In HHI you could exist that you have got to adhere. It depicts the benefits your customers need to get from you or get out of you.
She'd be brainwashed, if that was stated by her now. Philz can help you get hooked. How much you'll cover your own e-cigarette e-liquid.
Quite a few psychological interpretations are also believed be answerable. You can also locate forms of pashmina. Mood stabilizer medications like lamotrigine, carbamazepine and lithium could be utilised to control mood fluctuations as well as psychotic symptoms.
And so this really is some type of dream that is impossible. It's calm in precisely the exact same way there's silence following an explosion. Quite simply, smiling for pleasure to celebrate life may infect individuals and is excellent for the health.
Trust yourself, inexpensively and you can begin slowly! Each of the Marijuana Breeders and Suppliers listed inside this site have been discovered to be extremely reliable, and will provide you which you grow to anticipate! Plants may suffer from a choice of deficiencies.
So if you're a person you may consult with a physician. Hence parents wind up giving CBD for their kids for relieving problems and that are worried about their children search for an alternate medicine. You can do each of those things you wish you could do of the things you're missing out on because you're exhausted every single moment.
Possessing a journal of each the times you overcome your cravings or any time you do something you never could of if smoking pot can allow you to return and see just how far you've come, never record the awful stuff only the wonderful things as motivation is the secret to successfully kicking your dependence! The great thing about the munchies is it's possible to control them should you decide you don't have to give into them. This way you may delight in several of the foods which you cannot want to supply up.
Regrettably, there much you're able to perform about the sum of them on your lawns and surrounding woodlands. TheDogon have discovered this phenomena for the previous 700 decades. Individuals will have the ability to discover images and hear voices or sounds which don't actually exist.
It's possible to always check here to prevent. This caused a revolution and people began to get products directly online. They've a merchandise exchange. You are able to discover distinctive products being sold in the region. Not without cost In case you're thinking about registering in a health spa, you'll need to go readied for the fees. Thirsch said he hasn't had to do plenty of selling to locate investors since investors desire to own in, however they aren't sure the best way to do it.
You have to take your prescription with 24, According to Dubai's Foreign Office, if you're under any drugs then. They know that the scenario. There are only a few you shouldn't do in Dubai which we're mentioning below. I honestly think that isn't true for her. List is a website which allow you to compare involving several reputable marijuana dispenaries from Canada so you may make a precise decision.
Therefore, if you reside in any of the subsequent states and the requirements satisfy then you can thus be on your way to finding the legal marijuana if you finish the marijuana registry application forms for your state. There was not any bypass here, this proved to be a real atmosphere. Drug use can not be normally detected by saliva test kits . There are a lot of kinks which will want to get ironed out, and the regulations made simpler to comprehend. In general, there may be seen to be numerous psychological advantages of cosmetic surgery.


London, 2018-Jul-05 — /Travel PR News/ — The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) – the voice of the global business travel industry – today (3 July 2018) announced that it is launching a chapter in Italy.
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