text:
layout: post
title: "Time Series and ARIMA"
date: 2018-07-09 00:00:00
excerpt_separator:
---

Previously in these blog posts, we've looked at predicting some variable
using a bunch of available statistics. In this post, we'll look at using
time to predict a value. Time series models allow us to make predictions
using a more flexible framework for... time series data (crazy, I know)!
There are many time series models, each with their own pros and cons,
but in this post, I'm going to focus on ARIMA models and their
components.

Time Series Basics
==================

A time series is generally made up of three components: trend,
seasonality, and an error term. Trend is the direction of the series
over time; is it going up or down as we move forward? Seasonality is the
seasonal effect on our response. For example, we might see sales of a
product increase every year at Christmas time.

If there is a trend present, it can either be stochastic or
deterministic. A deterministic trend is one that is caused by some other
variable. A stochastic trend is one that is caused by randomness.

Another term we should know is stationarity. A stationary time series is
one with a constant mean and variance. If we have a stationary time
series, we shouldn't be seeing a trend, or see any sort of change in the
variance of the series.

ARIMA
=====

ARIMA models are a class of models for stationary time series. They
consist of three components:

-   Autoregressive
-   Integration
-   Moving Average

### Autoregressive Models

The autoregressive component uses previous time values (lags) to predict
the current time value. We use a specific amount of previous terms in
our time series to predict the current term using regression; this is
our autoregressive order, written as . So, for example, if we
determined that the previous three terms were significant in predicting
the present value, , we'd have an  process and
we'd use a model that would look like:

 In this case,  represents a value at the
previous lag.  is a coefficient to minimize the error.  is an
error term.

### Moving Average Models

The moving average part of the model is the same concept as the
autoregressive component, but instead of regressing using previous
values in time, we're regressing using previous error terms. The order
of the moving average model is represented as . The error
terms of a stationary process are white noise, and are represented by
the difference between t and the previous value of t. So if we
determined that the 3 previous error terms were significant in
predicting the current value, , our equation would look
like:

 In this case,  represents the error term at
different lags.  is again acting as a coefficient for each lag. Since
a stationary error term is just the difference between a time point and
its previous time point, we could rewrite this as:

### Integration

So with stationary time series we shouldn't see a trend. But a lot of
time series actually have a trend. Do we just throw these away? No! We
can remove the trend using a method called differencing (or
integration). All we are doing with differencing is just subtracting
each value by its previous lag. Doing this at one level usually removes
the trend, but we can difference more times with further lags if we
still see a trend.

The  component represents the amount of differencing that goes
into the ARIMA model. So an  parameter would represent
differencing each value by its previous lag.

### Putting it All Together

We can combine all three aspects into one model,
. Each parameter takes on the same meaning
it does when the three parts of the model are separate. So an
 model would look like:

 In this example, we would first order difference the time series to
remove any trend, then use the previous lag (the autoregressive
component) and the previous error term (the moving average component) to
predict the current value, .

Another thing to note, but something we won't get into in this post's
example: ARIMA models can also take on seasonality. Seasonal ARIMA
models have an additional (p, d, q) term that adds on to the first, but
is strictly for seasonal values. So if the ARIMA model looked like
 and the seasonal period was 12
(monthly), we would first do first order differencing, and then use the
value of t from 12 months ago to predict the current time point.

Now let's take a look at the data!

Data
====

Over the past few seasons, we've seen a huge emphasis on three point
shooting throughout the league. What better way to introduce ourselves
to time series analysis than by trying to forecast the amount of three
pointers attempted over future seasons.

We'll scrape the data we need from basketball reference. Essentially,
what we're doing with this code chunk, is scraping the player stats page
for each NBA season going back to 1980 (when the three point line was
introduced), counting up the total amount of three pointers shot, and
then combining all of that into one data frame. This code takes a minute
to run, so feel free to grab a coffee or reminise on all of those three
pointers you've made throughout your life.
```r
library(rvest)
library(dplyr)

three.df<-
  lapply(1980:2018, function(x)
  paste("https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_",x,
        "_totals.html",
        sep = "") %>%
    read_html() %>%
    html_node(xpath='//*[@id="totals_stats"]') %>%
    html_table() %>%
    `colnames<-` (make.names(colnames(.), unique = T)) %>%
    mutate(Season=x) %>%
    distinct(Player, .keep_all = T) %>%
    filter(Player!="Player") %>%
    mutate(X3PA=as.numeric(X3PA)) %>%
    group_by(Season) %>%
    summarize(tot.3PA=sum(X3PA))
) %>%
  bind_rows()
```
Still with me? Good. Now how about we get into actually modeling this
stuff.

ARIMA in R
==========

Before we get into any analysis, we're going to put our data into a time
series object. To do this, we'll use the `ts()` function.

    three.ts<- ts(three.df)

Let's take a look at the amount of three point attempts over time
graphically.
```r
library(ggplot2)
library(zoo)

as.zoo(three.ts) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x=Season, y=tot.3PA)) +
  geom_line(col="lightblue", size=1.1) +
  labs(x="3 Point Attempts")
```

We see that there is a pretty clear positive trend. Because of that, we
can say that the mean value is not constant, indicating that the model
is not stationary. The variance also isn't constant throughout, as some
seasons see much larger changes from the previous year (especially the
years from 1997-1999).

Luckily, ARIMA can be used for non-stationary models. The integration
component differences the time series to remove the trend. To identify
how many differences we should use, we'll look at the results of the
differencing graphically. Usually differencing once is enough to remove
the trend.
```r
as.zoo(diff(three.ts)) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x=index(as.zoo(diff(three.ts))), y=tot.3PA)) +
  geom_line(col="lightblue", size=1.1) +
  labs(x="Differenced 3 Point Attempts")
```

We can see that the trend is pretty much removed. So we'll set the
component of our ARIMA model to 1.

So one component down, two more to go. To determine , the number of
previous values we'll use in our model, and , the number of previous
error terms we'll use in our model, we need to get a sense of
autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation.

Autocorrelation is just a variables correlation with itself at any two
time-points.

Partial autocorrelation is the correlation with any two timepoints, when
the linear effect of other timepoints is removed. That's a little more
confusing, but we're essentially saying that it's the correlation
between two timepoints when we take the mutual correlations of previous
lags into account.

We can visualize these through an ACF plot for autocorrelations and a
PACF plot for partial autocorrelations.

To determine the autoregressive, , component, we'll look at a plot of
the partial autocorrelations. Any spikes that go beyond the dashed lines
imply significant partial autocorrelations at a .05 significance level.
We should take into account that about 5% of any significant spikes are
false positives. Let's look at the PACF plot of the differenced time
series.
```r
pacf(diff(three.ts[,2]))
```

We can see we only have one semi-significant spike at 13. This is most
likely a false positive as there would be nothing to indicate that the
three point attempts going back that far would be that helpful in
predicting the current three point attempts. Because of this, I would
suggest setting  to 0. If we thought it wasn't a false positive, we
would use all previous season's three point attempts going back 13 years
in our model.

We can use the ACF plot in a similar method to determine the number of
previous error terms to use to predict the current value of t.
```r
acf(diff(three.ts[,2]))
```

There doesn't appear to be much interesting in this plot either; it may
be for the best to go with 0 for the  component.

Wait a second, you might be saying, there's a huge spike at the first
lag in the ACF plot. However, notice that the first lag in the ACF plot
is at 0, which would indicate how correlated the most recent time point
is with itself. In comparison, the PACF plot starts at lag 1.

So we have an idea of a general model we can create:
. If we wanted to visualize this, it would look
like:

 Which can be rewritten as:

 This is a random walk. Our value  is only dependent on the previous
term and some error. Let's use the `Arima` function from the `forecast`
package to build this model.
```r
library(forecast)

model1<- Arima(three.ts[,2], order = c(0,1,0))
model1

## Series: three.ts[, 2]
## ARIMA(0,1,0)
##
## sigma^2 estimated as 25723953:  log likelihood=-378.12
## AIC=758.23   AICc=758.34   BIC=759.87

forecast(model1, h = 5)

##    Point Forecast    Lo 80    Hi 80    Lo 95    Hi 95
## 40          71337 64837.13 77836.87 61396.30 81277.70
## 41          71337 62144.79 80529.21 57278.73 85395.27
## 42          71337 60078.89 82595.11 54119.20 88554.80
## 43          71337 58337.25 84336.75 51455.60 91218.40
## 44          71337 56802.84 85871.16 49108.92 93565.08
```
We can see that we get several measurements of model accuracy. Let's
take a look at AIC; here it is 758.2307869. We can see that our
forecasted values for the next 5 years are all the same. This is what
happens when we predict a random walk. A forecast for a random walk is
just the previous term.

Looking at the plot of three point attempts, we know that it's probably
not the case that we get the same value of attempts next year. It's
likely to increase. To adjust for this, we can include a drift term in
the equation. A drift term is a constant value that is the average
change between consecutive lags.
```r
model2<- Arima(three.ts[,2], order = c(0,1,0), include.drift = T)
model2

## Series: three.ts[, 2]
## ARIMA(0,1,0) with drift
##
## Coefficients:
##           drift
##       1745.8684
## s.e.   772.4866
##
## sigma^2 estimated as 23288758:  log likelihood=-375.72
## AIC=755.44   AICc=755.78   BIC=758.71

forecast(model2, h = 5)

##    Point Forecast    Lo 80    Hi 80    Lo 95     Hi 95
## 40       73082.87 66898.30 79267.43 63624.39  82541.35
## 41       74828.74 66082.44 83575.03 61452.43  88205.04
## 42       76574.61 65862.62 87286.59 60192.04  92957.17
## 43       78320.47 65951.34 90689.61 59403.52  97237.43
## 44       80066.34 66237.23 93895.45 58916.54 101216.14

plot(forecast(model2, h = 5))
```

Notice now that we are adding a constant value of 1745.8684211 to each
prediction. That seems to better capture the general trend we've seen in
the time series. We've also decreased the AIC indicating a better model
fit.

Now, although we've gone through some general rules for how to determine
which parameters to put into our ARIMA model, it's not an exact science.
We may be able to get better results by playing around with different
parameters, whether they are obvious in plots of the (P)ACF plots or
not.

The `forecast` package has a handy `auto.arima` function that uses a
stepwise procedure to determine the optimal ARIMA model parameters.
Let's try it on our data.
```r
model3<- auto.arima(three.ts[,2])
model3

## Series: three.ts[, 2]
## ARIMA(0,1,0) with drift
##
## Coefficients:
##           drift
##       1745.8684
## s.e.   772.4866
##
## sigma^2 estimated as 23288758:  log likelihood=-375.72
## AIC=755.44   AICc=755.78   BIC=758.71
```
This method seems to indicate that the random walk with drift was the
ideal model. I would suggest being careful with this procedure and just
making sure that the model it chooses at least makes some sense!

Conclusion
==========

With this post, we have a general idea of using ARIMA models to make
predictions on time series data. ARIMA can be very helpful, but there
are other models out there that can be more general or cover ideas that
ARIMA doesn't cover. We'll probably get into those in the future, but
for now, play around with AR, MA, and ARIMA processes!


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SEGA teases new real-time strategy game Revolve8 with all-star development team including Castlevania's Koji Igarashi
October 3, 2018 by George
SEGA announced today that they are working on a real-time strategy game for mobile devices called Revolve8: Episodic Dueling which will have an all-star Japanese staff behind the title. The staff includes Koji Igarashi (Castlevania series producer, Bloodstained) working on character designs, Masayoshi Kikuchi (Yakuza series, Dx2 Shin Megami Tensei Liberation) as senior producer, and Ryota-H (Fate/Grand Order and Lord of Vermilion) as character artist.
On the other side the game's sound team will include Shunsuke Tsuchiya (Another Eden and Stella Glow) along with Yasunori Mitsuda (Chrono series, Xeno series). The games teaser page is already up in both English and Japanese. So, yeah this game is going to be SEGA's next big release considering the staff has some pretty big names. I first reported this game as a mobile game but made a mistake since there isn't platforms announced. We will find out more information on October 10th!
Idola Phantasy Star Saga Producer and Director talks changed setting, link to past games
July 27, 2018 by George
As you guys already know, I wrote a long whiny post on why I wasn't too into Idola Phantasy Star Saga mobile game and now we get some more clarification from the Director and Producer on the changes in setting. Gathered by Siliconera, according to the change in setting:
"The reason why Idola has a different setting and worldview from Phantasy Star Online 2 and Phantasy Star Online 2 es, is because it could become a hurdle for people who don't play PSO2 if it were directly related. Although the game has been made to be easy to get into even for those new to the series, the common elements in the series still remain. Idola is also meant to bring back those who stopped playing PSO2 and PSO2 es, as something "Phantasy Star-like". That said, there may be some smaller connections to the world of Oracle from PSO2."
As for having some connection to the past games, considering this game is a 30th Anniversary title, they said:
Continue Reading ➜
SHIN MEGAMI TENSEI Liberation D×2up for per-registration on the American Play Store
July 1, 2018 by George
The upcoming mobile game, Shin Megami Tensei Liberation Dx2, is a big game for the working relationship between SEGA and Atlus. This is the first Shin Megami Tensei title being developed by SEGA since they purchased Atlus back in 2013. The game now has a Google Play Store page that lets you pre-register for the game. This means that when the game does finally release, you will be alerted with a notification.
Shin Megami Tensei Liberation Dx2 (what a mouthful) is a Pokemon Go style AR game that allows you to capture up to 160 different demons and contains anime storytelling elements.The game is also set to launch with a competitive PVP mode. According to the Play Store page, the game will be fully in Japanese with English subtitles.
Sonic Mania Original Soundtrack "Selected Edition" hits iTunes
January 16, 2018 by George
If you have been waiting to get yourself the digital version of the Sonic Mania soundtrack, written by Tee Lopes, you are in luck. The Sonic Mania Original Soundtrack (Selected Edition) has now hit iTunes (USA link here). The soundtrack features 47 tracks, seems that old tracks that would require a royalty fee have been left out. Notice Green Hill Zone and Chemical Plant Zone missing. I guess you can let me know in the comments below. The soundtrack is priced at £14.99 or $15.99! The Sonic Mania soundtrack also got a vinyl release by Data Disc, obviously featuring less tracks. No excuses not to promote good video game music.
Above I linked to a interview with had with Tee Lopes regarding his amazing work on the Sonic Mania soundtrack. If you are a fan of his music, give it a listen!
SEGA Slots mobile released worldwide featuring classic SEGA IPs
SEGA has now launched their mobile app SEGA Slots world wide. This lets you play 'some of the fastest, most addictive slots machines around!' according to their product description. These addictive slots machines just happen to have some of our favorite SEGA IPs attached to them. While its cool to see our favorite characters being represented, its a tad sad that they are stuck in a casino style mobile gambling game.
Product Pages: Play Store – iTunes
Regardless SEGA Slots, as of launch, has the following Classic SEGA IPs represented:
Sonic CD goes free-to-play with ads
October 27, 2016 by George
Sonic CD has now been updated to version 2.0, which changed the app from a paid game to a free-to-play game with ads. The issue with this is, that if you bought Sonic CD before going free-to-play, you will also be getting ads and be asked to pay $1.99 to remove them. According to developer Christian Whitehead this was all SEGA's doing since he's been busy working on Sonic Mania.
SEGA has yet to come out and comment on the change, but I seriously think this is just a error that will hopefully be resolved. If not it would be a really slimy move to charge loyal paying customers $1.99 to remove ads that you recently updated into their already purchased $2.99 game. Anyway, what do you think of Sonic CD going free-to-play with ads? If you paid for the Sonic CD, do you feel burnt that you now has ads?
UPDATE: Sonic Social Media manager Aaron Webber has confirmed that a fix has rolled out for those who purchased Sonic CD and still got ads. Let us know if you guys are still having issues in the comments below!
[via Touch Arcade]
SEGA releases new Spiral Knight's spin-off Rise of Knights
Back in 2011 SEGA acquired Three Rings Studios, who would go on to release Spiral Knights, a free to play online RPG. It seems that SEGA has decided to bring back the franchise as a mobile game that is very similar to SEGA Japan's Chain Chronicles. Not only in combat but the flow and structure of the game keeps making me think this is a Chain Chronicles reskin that was created to appeal to the players that play Spiral Knights.
The video above has like over 15 minutes of gameplay, basically giving you the whole idea of what the game is. Yes, Chain Chronicles x Spiral Knights. Its not a bad idea honestly, you can download it now if your on iDevices via iTunes. One last thing, doesn't this game's name sound like a Batman comic?
[Thanks max_cady]
SEGA's Puzzle & Glory mobile game gets soft launch in Canada
June 9, 2015 by George
SEGA has just had a soft launch for Puzzle & Glory which is being developed by newly acquired Demiurge Studios (Marvel Puzzle Quest). The game should be available to Canadian users on both the Play Store and iTunes right now. Puzzle & Glory is a Match-3 RPG puzzle game that has been popularized by Puzzle & Dragons (wow, see the similar titles?).
The game has you going through dungeons as you explore, conquer quests and traverse the dangerous landscapes of Aetria. The game even has competitive PVP mode if you're into that. If you want to try the game out and you're on Apple devices you can always make a Canadian iTunes account to try it. As for Android users, we have to wait until the APK pops up on the internet.
[Via: The Forums]
SEGA has announced Monster Gear for mobile phones
April 28, 2015 by George
[Artwork not from actual game]
We already know that SEGA is all in when it comes to mobile video game development and their newest entry into the mobile landscape is being called 'Monster Gear', a Monster Hunter like game.
In this game players will be able to go on missions with 3 other players, the missions are set to take roughly five minutes to complete, unlike Monster Hunter where they can take generations.
The game will come with three main commands including attack, guarding and 'special pair attack'. Once the service starts you will be able to use five different weapons including lance, large sword, dual swords, a hammer, and a bow. The game will be free-to-play, which means it will include microtransactions. The game will release in Japan as early as next month. We will keep you updated as new information is released.
[Via: Nichegamer]
Crazy Taxi: City Rush releasing this Thursday to iOS
Want to play Crazy Taxi: City Rush on your iPhone and/or iPad? No problem, SEGA has announced that the game will be releasing globally tomorrow to the App Store. Soon fans can experience their new mobile, free-to-play revised take on the Crazy Taxi franchise.
Even though the new game borrows heavily from popular mobile games like Temple Run, don't think that this entry has disregarded the Japanese team that created the originals. Kenji Kanno, creator of Crazy Taxi, has been overseeing development and lately been doing quite a bit of interviews on the web speaking about the game. The game is developed by Hardlight Studios who developed Sonic Dash, another title that was highly influenced by Temple Run (and Sonic Jump that takes notes from the popular mobile game Doodle Jump, though it should be noted that an earlier version of Sonic Jump released that pre-dates Doodle Jump).
This game is also supposed to be released on Android, but like always Android users must wait.
Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed Soundtrack Available on iTunes and AmazonMP3
June 3, 2014 by Bartman
SEGA and Sumo Digital have answered the demand for an official release of the soundtrack for Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed. While it has featured a physical release in Japan on two CDs, you can buy each CD digitally through your choice of Apple's iTunes store or on AmazonMP3. Each CD is available for $9.99 USD, (Or $9.49 on Amazon at the time of this writing,) and£7.99 GBP, or you can purchase tracks individually.
iTunes (Disc 1) [US] [UK] (Disc 2) [US] [UK]
Amazon Mp3 (Disc 1) [US] [UK] (Disc 2) [US] [UK]
For someone like me that's been listening to this soundtrack in the most cumbersome way possible, (Try hooking up your phone to your car stereo and hoping all four G's of your data connection can play songs off of YouTube and not stop to buffer every so often,) this could not have come at a better time for me.
Thanks to Sumo Digital's Steve Lycett and Sonic Retro Staff Member GerbilSoft for providing links to the soundtrack. If you'd like a complete listing of the songs, head over to VGMDB.
Swingin' Report Show and Sonic Talk now on iTunes
Here it is, our sweet podcasts are now on iTunes. I know many of you have given us flack for not having them up, due to RSS problems but guess what? Those are now a thing of the past. Well, not really, we are having some troubles on how it displays on iTunes. But hey, nothing is perfect. Check it out, subscribe and give us a review.
Swingin' Report Show – Sonic Talk
Thanks to everyone that listened, regardless of not having a iTunes set up. Thank Will for fixing up the RSS feeds for us, he is brilliant.
SEGA releases several Hideki Naganuma soundtracks onto iTunes
October 3, 2012 by Shigs
There is a God! While we've been expecting the Naganuma-centric version of the Jet Set Radio soundtrack to hit, not only did we get that, but Sega also included a JSRF soundtrack with all of Naganuma's tunes and the soundtrack to Ollie King! Ollie $#@king King! Why are you still reading this?! Shrink this window, go to iTunes, buy the soundtracks, listen, then come back here and comment!
…DO IT NOW!!
Jet Set Radio soundtrack available for pre-order on iTunes
August 22, 2012 by Shigs
Looks like the game isn't the only thing you'll be able to purchase next month. The soundtrack to Jet Set Radio is available for pre-order on iTunes (USA). The soundtrack is unique and not exactly accurate. It's mainly all Hideki Naganuma tunes including some from JSRF. The Jet Set Radio soundtrack will be available on Sept 18th for $9.99.
Virtua Fighter 5 soundtrack up on iTunes in three flavors
Do you like the songs in Virtua Fighter games? Do you want to throw your money at the composers of the game and have all the music for all the releases of the title? You now can. SEGA has posted the Virtua Fighter 5 soundtrack, Virtua Fighter 5 R soundtrack and finally the Virtua Fighter 5 Final Showdown soundtrack on iTunes. That is a lot of AM2 goodness.
So is the soundtrack available where you are from? Let's check! The soundtracks are available in the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, USA, Japan.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Konkani have announced the first details for PES 2015, set to release on PS4 and Xbox One. Announcing new features and gameplay systems, the focus is on enhancing the on-field realism and improving the core features of the previous game.
Excitement of goals – A new shooting system allows a variety of unrestricted shooting styles with precise control over the direction and power of all strikes. Countering enhanced attacking options, goal keepers intuitively close angles and are capable of an incredible number of ways to react to any situation, including altering centre of gravity.
Final Pass – passing options available to players when delivering a final pass have been expanded, allowing for little knock-ons or searing low passes that use new physics routines to ensure the ball behaves realistically across every situation, providing unique and differing outcomes decided by user actions.
Full Pitch AI: The game engine now features AI that is constantly adjusted covering everything that develops on the pitch, resulting in players making runs, finding space and marking opponents, even when off the screen.
Behavioural Patterns: PES 2015 now boasts a huge array of players that both look and play like their real-life counterparts (inclusive of weird haircuts). KONAMI has faithfully recreated over 1000 players this year, with bespoke animations and playing styles across its extensive player roster. They run like they should, play the way they do in real life, and react emotionally as they would to fouls, goals or referee decisions – with their frame of mind actually affecting how they play!
Let There Be Light: Real-time lighting is used across the entire stadium, with the enhanced visuals bathed in the changing light of a changeable day or the stark glare of the floodlights at a night match.
Konami have also confirmed that PES ID is returning, stating that teams will be set up to play as they do in real-life and their star players will work within this framework, but they will be instantly recognisable via their runs and playing styles. The world's greatest teams will not only move and find space like they would in real life, they will also defend or attack like them automatically. Teams will also automatically adopt their real-life counterparts' game plan, whether it is counter-attacking, out wide, or defensively minded.
myClub: Extensive Master League Online overhaul allows players and managers to be added using accumulated GP or via micro-transactions within club dealings. Agents now used to meet player requirement criteria, while unhappy players can upset the balance of a side to detrimental effect. This extends to offline play.
Konami have promised more updates in the coming months, so for those soccer fans amongst us, expect more info on game presentation, ball physics and uniform vibrancy.
Ok. I added the bit about uniform vibrancy. That's probably not a new feature. But for all the official announcements, keep checking our site.


Name the top 30 all-time goal scorers in the English Premier League. Data from 2010-01-26.
Name Arsenal's top 30 Premier League goalscorers, as of summer 2010.
Name the top scorers in each season of the English Premier League.


Are you like me and still racking your brain on what a good stocking stuffer is for that special someone? Well if you're like me and have to buy for a man, this blog might not help so much. Now that I've gotten that out of the way, I can tell you what I would love to find in my stocking.
These are just a few simple ideas that you can get for a special lady in your life. I'm 99.9% sure that all women would love these gifts. They are some of the hottest items this season, and we can't keep them stocked!
These gifts give a great well rounded idea of what you could buy, but also a narrow idea in case you just have no idea where to begin. No matter what you get for her, she'll love it....and don't forget the candy!


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text:
Facts About the Mustang
Haydee Webb
The mustang is a free-roaming horse that is native to the Western United States. This breed is the descendant of Spanish horses brought to the Americas, and it is often referred to as the "wild horse" or feral horse. Because of this, many people have a hard time identifying these beautiful creatures. This article will give you some facts about this regal animal, and how to identify it. If you have never seen one, here are a few things you should know about them.
First, the mustang is an endangered species. They have been around for over two centuries, and the BLM has no known way to control their population. This is the main reason they are so protected. The population of mustangs is continually growing despite attempts to control it. However, due to the lack of adoptions, some mustangs are kept in holding areas until they find suitable homes. The BLM has several options to control the mustang population, but the most common option is to offer surplus horses to private individuals.
The number of mustangs in the United States has declined dramatically. In the early 1900s, the number of mustangs was close to two million. By 1930, the number had decreased by half and today there are only thirty thousand. Because of the protection law passed in 1971, the mustang population has increased. This increase is primarily attributed to the creation of the Adoption Incentive Program, formerly known as the "Adopt A Horse" program by the Bureau of Land Management. The BLM distributed excess mustangs to ranchers who offered good homes for them.
Mustangs have been domesticated by Native Americans, and were used as livestock. As the country developed, the mustang population grew out of control, and it became a problem for ranchers and wildlife rescue organizations. Fortunately, the BLM and other animal advocates implemented a mustang protection law in 1971, which resulted in an increase in mustang numbers. The program was successful and the surplus mustangs were distributed to ranchers who took them in.
The Ford Motor Company began the process of controlling the number of wild horses in the United States. While the original Mustang was a popular model, the company quickly began drawing up larger versions. Then in 1967, Lee Iacocca oversaw a redesign that gave the Mustang a more massive appearance. The new design included the introduction of the first big-block engine. The American Wild Horse Campaign opposed this process, but later decided to keep the wild horses on the public lands.
In the early twentieth century, the number of mustangs in the United States was estimated at over two million. By the 1930s, the number had halved, and by 1971, only thirty thousand of the wild horses were still alive. As a result, the mustang population was reduced by half. In 1926, the BLM created the Adoption Incentive Program, which was then known as the "Adopt a horse" program. This program enables ranchers to give unwanted mustangs a new home.
The mustang has been domesticated by the Native Americans. In the late 1800s, the government purchased 150 stallions per year from Germany. They were used to pull heavy wagons and were used by the US calvary in wars. Unfortunately, some of these horses escaped and contributed to the blood of the Mustang. So, it is not a surprise that the mustang is now considered an endangered species. It is critically important to ensure that the mustang continues to live in its natural habitat.
The mustang is a highly popular horse in the U.S., where it shares resources and land with the ranching industry. This horse is often free-roaming, and is a common sight in the wild. It is also the most expensive horse in the world, with the cost of ownership being higher than its price-priced counterparts. There are some people who consider the mustang a luxury car, but most don't realize that the name means something completely different.
The Mustang is currently protected by the federal government and managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). But there is controversy regarding its management, and the Mustang population has remained stable in the past. The Ford mustang's current management methods and fuel efficiency are far better than most rival muscle cars. A new car should be able to get up to 60 mpg on average. The 2020 Mustang is expected to be the most efficient pony ever, and the best in its class.
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Q: Cannot access data after full text search using sqlalchemy, postgres and flask I would like to search my postgres data base using postgres build-in full text search capability. In my app I have a set of posts stored according to title, content and date.
I think I can search the database using tsvector, but cannot retrieve the data from the results; i.e. the title, the content and the date. Could anyone help me, please?
import json, sys
from flask import Flask, render_template
from flask_sqlalchemy import SQLAlchemy

from sqlalchemy.dialects import postgresql
from sqlalchemy.sql.expression import cast, func
from sqlalchemy import Index

def create_tsvector(*args):
    exp = args[0]
    for e in args[1:]:
        exp += ' ' + e
    return func.to_tsvector('english', exp)

app = Flask(__name__)
app.config['SECRET_KEY'] = 'some_key'
app.config["SQLALCHEMY_DATABASE_URI"] = 'postgresql:somedb'

db = SQLAlchemy(app)

class Post(db.Model):
    id = db.Column(db.Integer, primary_key=True)
    title = db.Column(db.Text, nullable=False)
    content = db.Column(db.Text, nullable=False)
    date = db.Column(db.Text,unique=False)

    __ts_vector__ = create_tsvector(
        cast(func.coalesce(content, ''), postgresql.TEXT)
    )

    __table_args__ = (Index('idx_post_fts', __ts_vector__, postgresql_using='gin'), )

    def __repr__(self):
        return f"Post('{self.title}', '{self.date}')"

if len(sys.argv) > 1:
    filename1 = sys.argv[1]

infile=open(filename1,'r')
posts=json.load(infile)
infile.close()
List=list(posts)

art = 0
for j in range(0,len(List)):
    if j % 10 == 0:
        print(j)
    title= posts[List[art]]['Title']
    date = posts[List[art]]['Posted']
    content=posts[List[art]]['Text']
    post = Post(title=title, date=date, content=content)
    db.session.add(post)
    db.session.commit()
    art+=1

from sqlalchemy.dialects.postgresql import TSVECTOR
from sqlalchemy import select, cast

posts = Post.__ts_vector__.match("bicycle", postgresql_regconfig='english')

print(posts)

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Shed To Release New Album On Monkeytown Records
Home / Music / Shed To Release...
Shed has announced a new LP forthcoming on Moneytown Records, it will be the German producer's first contribution to the label following albums on Ostgut Ton and 50 Weapons. The 11 track offering will be available from the 10th of March both digitally and physically.
Shed will be performing live at The Pickle Factory on the 1st of March, accompanied by visuals from Transforma, who's works are said to transform Shed's music "into live experiences extraordinaire."
Watch the teaser video for the live show HERE


Automation is the future. Marketing automation, in particular, can turn a lean marketing team or an outsourced marketing team, into a force to be reckoned with, allowing young businesses and growing businesses to compete with large-scale enterprises in the war for customer attention.
Like Amazon, expose your viewers with highly personalized, useful content that helps convert prospects into customers and turn customers into delighted customers.
Provide the content that people are looking for. Put yourself in the customer's shoes for a moment. Say that you've engaged with a company; maybe you've read a blog post, left your credentials, and really loved what you read. The next email you get is for a completely different topic that has nothing to do with what you just read. Wouldn't it be more impactful if you received an email that continued to dive further into the topic? With marketing automation, you can do exactly this.


We are pleased to announce that we have relocated to a new premise in Bromsgrove. Still on the high street and easily accessible we are now based at number 51, High Street, Bromsgrove.
Our new telephone number is 01527 910 634 and our office hours remain the same.
Our new offices provide the scope for further business growth and development, whilst continuing to support our existing customer base. Should you have any questions please do not hesitate to contact us.


Chennai, May 5 (IANS) After delivering Telugu hits such as "Don Seenu" and "Balupu", director Gopichand Malineni and actor Ravi Teja are teaming up for the third time for a yet-untitled project in the language.
"Ravi Teja really liked Gopichand's one-liner and has asked him to develop it into a script. The script work will take a few months and in the interim, Ravi will complete shooting for 'Touch Chesi Chudu' and 'Raja The Great'," a source close to the actor IANS.
The project will be as commercial and entertaining as their previous collaborations.
"Both 'Don Seenu' and 'Balupu' were known for their commercial factor and overall entertainment. Ravi Teja wants something on the same lines and wouldn't mind if the new film even supersedes the previous ones," the source added.
The yet-untitled film can be expected to roll from August.


The Jackson KE3 Kelly Electric Guitar has an edgy body design and shark fin inlays that make a bold statement with looks alone. But this rocker is a sonic flamethrower too. Its sculpted edges make it comfortable to play and the overall balance of the instrument is excellent.
Compound radius rosewood fingerboard 12"-16"