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text:
In Speeches
All Governors' Speeches
Philip Lowe
Glenn Stevens
Ian Macfarlane
Bernie Fraser
Speeches by Philip Lowe
All Deputy Governors' Speeches
Guy Debelle
Ric Battellino
Graeme Thompson
Speeches by Guy Debelle
Testimonies before Parliament
Speech The Evolving Financial Situation
Guy Debelle [*]
Assistant Governor (Financial Markets)
Women in Finance Lunch
Sydney – 16 February 2010
PDF version 168KB
It is getting on for nearly three years since the onset of the financial turmoil that has bedevilled us for much of that time. Thankfully there are signs of a sizeable improvement in many markets in recent months, although I believe it is still premature to declare victory. While the general trend is positive, there are a number of risks still lingering that I will talk about a bit later.
In my talk today I will summarise the state of play in three major parts of the Australian and global financial markets: the credit markets, equity markets and the foreign exchange market. I will also describe the actions the Reserve Bank has taken in response to the evolving turmoil in markets over the past three years – outside of the interest rate decisions taken by the Reserve Bank Board. Reflecting the fact that Australian markets have generally functioned better than those in other developed economies, the need for policy intervention by the Reserve Bank was considerably less than for other central banks. Moreover, most of the actions that the Bank undertook have been completely unwound.
Before that, I will step back and give my quick potted summary of the cause of the financial turmoil. As I have said before, I would attribute a very large role in the financial crisis to a wholesale failure of risk assessment and risk management.
To illustrate this failure of risk assessment, I will use a quote I used in an earlier speech but it bears reiterating. In August 2007, David Viniar, the CFO of Goldman Sachs, said 'We are seeing things that were 25 standard deviation moves, several days in a row.'
That was in August 2007, in the very early days of the crisis. The month of October 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers delivered significantly more 25 standard deviation events in Viniar's distribution of risks. October 2008 was, hopefully, a once in a lifetime event. As my colleague at the Bank of England Andy Haldane pointed out, with a normal distribution, a 25 standard deviation event actually is already a once in a lifetime event, where the life, in this case, is that of the universe!
Given the extraordinarily low probability of even one 25 standard deviation event occurring, this illustrates that the models and statistical distributions used to assess and manage risk were, in many cases, plain wrong. This applies to models used by investors, issuers and regulators.
Credit markets
Credit markets were where it all began. This was where the failure of risk assessment and management was greatest, although it was also where the realisation first occurred that risks had been badly miscalculated. Indeed, for much of 2007, credit markets were a long way ahead of other markets in seeing the problems which were to come. Other markets, most obviously the equity market, remained generally unaware of what was unfolding in the credit world.
Asset-backed markets were where concerns first arose, particularly securities backed by US sub-prime housing loans. With some of these securities, it is optimistic to refer to them as asset-backed!
In the first half of 2007, great uncertainty arose about the quality and value of these securities and the assets that underpinned them. There was further uncertainty about whose books these assets resided on, generating a marked rise in counterparty risk aversion amongst financial institutions. That is, institutions became less willing to lend to each other, both because of concerns about the financial strength of the counterparty as well as a desire to hoard any available liquidity, should they themselves need it. This was most obviously manifest in a rise in short-term borrowing costs, represented here by the spread between Libor (bank bills in the case of Australia) and the expected policy rate (Graph 1). This spread is probably the best short-hand way of illustrating the fluctuating tensions in financial markets over the past three years.
As is apparent in the graph, this spread was generally markedly lower in Australia than in the major financial centres, indicating that these tensions were a lot less in Australia. This reflects the fact that the balance sheets of Australian banks were considerably stronger than those in other countries. They did not have material holdings of, or exposure to, the securities backed by US mortgages. In addition, the quality of the loans on their books, which were almost entirely domestic, was also materially better than in some other banking systems. More generally, the counterparty concerns in the local market were generally much less here than elsewhere.
The Lehman event is also very apparent on the graph. Prior to Lehman, markets were clearly disrupted but there was a sense that the situation was generally manageable. In the period immediately after Lehman, there were fears the system was out of control. There were a few periods where the only market with any significant liquidity was on-the-run US Treasuries. Spreads widened significantly following the Lehman failure from already high levels. Indeed, these spreads are really only indicative as very little trading was occurring in that period in any market. Counterparty concerns were at their zenith with little confidence about who might be next to fall over.
The significant dislocation in financial markets following the Lehman failure, the US money market fund, Reserve, 'breaking the buck' and the rescue of AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, resulted in large scale interventions by governments around the world. In many advanced economies, schemes to support securities markets were introduced. In the US, these schemes were an alphabet soup of acronyms such as TALF, MMIFF and CPFF. Governments also guaranteed the deposits and debt raisings of their banks.
While Australian markets were dislocated through this period, the dislocation was generally less and shorter lived. Hence the Reserve Bank was not required to intervene to the extent necessary in other countries. I will come back to this shortly.
While the financial situation in Australia was significantly better than many other countries, the Australian government introduced a guarantee on wholesale debt and deposits. With the guarantee in place in many other countries, Australian banks would have been at a significant competitive disadvantage in terms of funding costs had they not had the guarantee. In addition, the guarantee allowed the banks to access another group of investors who had an appetite for sovereign credit but not bank credit.
The Australian banks made fairly extensive use of the government guarantee of their debt. The need to use the guarantee for the most part reflected the high risk aversion of investors and was as much an issue of price as market access. The guarantee allowed the banks to raise funds considerably cheaper than they could without it. (This is evident in the fact that Goldmans issued an unguaranteed bond in the US in early 2009 at an extremely wide spread of more than 400 basis points over Treasuries.) It also allowed the banks to issue at longer maturities. Even in the worst of the crisis, in the last quarter of 2008, the banks were still able to rollover short-term wholesale funding, both on and offshore, without using the guarantee.
As risk aversion has dissipated, and spreads have narrowed, there has been an increase in unguaranteed issuance. For some months now, for the major banks, the cost of issuing unguaranteed debt, particularly at shorter maturities has been no higher, and often lower, than the cost of issuing guaranteed debt once account is taken of the guarantee fee. You can see from Graph 2 that this has led to an increase in unguaranteed issuance and a decline in guaranteed issuance. That is, the price mechanism works.
Reflecting the improvement in market conditions and the continued strength of the Australian banking system, the Treasurer has announced that the wholesale guarantee will cease at the end of March.
From Graph 1, it is apparent that spreads narrowed considerably over the second half of 2009. This was true both at shorter maturities shown here, but also at longer maturities. This narrowing demonstrates the considerable improvement in credit market conditions and the abatement of risk aversion. The improving conditions has also been reflected in the increase in issuance.
A further indication of the improvement in conditions, is that in Australia, the banks have been increasing the average maturity of their debt in recent months. They have tended to reduce the share of short-term bills in their funding mix and increase the share of longer maturity bonds, including a number of 7 and 10-year issues.
Securitisation markets have also begun to show some signs of life from the end of last year.[1] There have been sizeable RMBS issues by ME Bank, Bendigo and Adelaide, Westpac and most recently AMP and Bank of Queensland (Graph 3). One reason for this is that the stock of RMBS on issue has declined quite significantly over the past two years reflecting the lack of issuance and the amortisation of the existing issues, so investors have holes in their RMBS portfolios to fill. The current pace of issuance is around that required to maintain the existing stock at its current level (and is not too far short of the share of housing credit that it was earlier this decade). Moreover, the secondary market overhang caused by the portfolio liquidation of a number of SIVs has been largely eliminated. This has seen secondary market spreads tighten significantly.
One can think of securitisation as being somewhat akin to a three or four year bond in terms of funding, given the effective life of an RMBS. The spreads on the recent RMBS issues are only a bit higher than those on the recent unguaranteed issues by the major banks of equivalent maturity, and the gap is narrowing. This means that RMBS is again beginning to provide a competitive source of funding, particularly for the regional banks (which pay higher spreads on their debt issues) and non-bank lenders which had both previously depended more on this source of funding.
As I said earlier, equity markets took longer to be affected by the financial crisis, continuing to rise through much of the second half of 2007, peaking in November. But for the general public, the equity market was the most obvious manifestation of the crisis. Graph 4 compares the movement in the equity market in this episode with previous large movements. The current episode was one of the most rapid declines, surpassed only by 1987, and it was nearly as deep as the decline in 1973.
The local market moved broadly in line with other global equity markets, notwithstanding the relative outperformance of the Australian economy. Equity markets in many emerging economies generally fell by even more than equity markets in advanced economies, again despite stronger economic outcomes. The best example of this is the Chinese stock market which experienced a peak to trough decline of 70 per cent.
These large declines in equity prices resulted in a very large destruction of household wealth. However, a large portion of that decline in household wealth has been regained since the trough in equity markets in March 2009 because, while the decline was one of the sharpest on record, the rebound has also been relatively rapid. In China, the recovery has been even more rapid with the Chinese equity market rising by over 100 per cent at one point.
One marked feature of the Australian equity market over the crisis was the record amount of equity raisings that occurred in 2009 (Graph 5). Australian companies raised just shy of $100 billion over the course of last year. Equity was raised by non-financial companies as well as financial institutions. Some part of this equity raising reflected businesses turning to equity as a source of funds in the face of tightening in lending standards by banks. Equity has also been used to replace debt issues as they came to maturity.
But these equity raisings have generally not been cheap. They often occurred at a sizeable discount to the prevailing stock price. And as I just noted, in most cases, equity prices have risen substantially from the time of the capital raising. Good news for those who subscribed to the capital raising, but not so cheap for the company.
This large amount of equity raising is part of the explanation for the decline in business credit that we have seen. Through much of 2009, total business funding had been growing at a reasonable rate despite negative growth in business credit (Graph 6). Companies had been using their equity raising primarily to pay down debt.[2] That is, businesses turned away from intermediated credit from the banking system to raise funds directly from the market.
I gave a speech on the recovery in the foreign exchange market late last year,[3] so I will only give a short recap of the main points now. There has been a very large swing in the Australian dollar over the past 18 months (Graph 7). The exchange rate depreciated by over 30 per cent from its peak in July 2008 to its trough in March 2009 and has subsequently appreciated to be now not much more than 5 per cent below the July 2008 peak on a trade-weighted basis. These swings in the exchange rate have played an important role in buffering the economy from the turmoil in the global economy.
Some of the depreciation in the currency and subsequent appreciation reflected the movements in risk aversion that are also evident in the money market spreads I discussed earlier. Indeed, the Australian dollar was often cited as a barometer of market sentiment. This is evident in Graph 8 which shows the very high correlation between the Australian dollar and equity markets during the crisis (and interestingly this correlation has declined significantly of late). In part this correlation was high because as risk aversion increased, investors retreated to their home markets, repatriating their holdings of foreign assets. In addition, a number of highly leveraged investors were forced to liquidate their portfolios that often included Australian dollar investments, as losses mounted on their other asset holdings. Significant flows were also generated by non-leveraged investors with foreign equity investments, which needed to rapidly adjust the size of their foreign exchange hedges in response to the sharp moves in global equity values.
Notwithstanding the fact that the Australian foreign exchange market is generally very liquid, there were occasions when liquidity became scarce around the times of maximum risk aversion, particularly following Lehman. That marked reduction in liquidity prompted the Reserve Bank to enter the market to mitigate the liquidity shortfall. We were not seeking to maintain any particular level of the exchange rate, indeed as I mentioned earlier, we were quite comfortable with the direction of the exchange rate. Rather we were seeking to redress the market dysfunction that was resulting from the significant lack of liquidity. The reserves used in the foreign exchange intervention have been subsequently repurchased in a way that minimised any impact on the market.
RBA actions
Let me now turn to the actions of the RBA during the crisis, outside of the policy rate decisions. One summary way to compare the actions of the RBA with that of other central banks is to look at movements in their balance sheets. Graph 9 shows that the Reserve Bank provided a sizeable degree of liquidity support to the market following Lehman, but that our balance sheet has since declined as this liquidity support has been unwound. The graph also shows the substantial increase in the balance sheets of the Fed, ECB and Bank of England, which have all yet to decline.
One marked difference between the increase in our balance sheet and that of the Bank of England and the Fed, is that here, the increase resulted predominantly through our regular market operations (although the foreign exchange swap facility with the Fed accounts for a sizeable portion of the rise in our balance sheet, see below). In contrast, the bulk of the increase in the UK and US is from direct purchases of government securities (and mortgage securities in the US) associated with their policy of quantitative easing.
The actions we undertook to provide liquidity to the domestic money market were conducted almost entirely within our pre-existing framework for market operations. We have always dealt with a wide range of counterparties (which are not just banks as is often mistakenly thought), and we have always had the capacity to adjust the term of our operations very quickly. Because we operate in the market every day, it is relatively straightforward for us to assess the degree of tension in the market and respond accordingly. Our operating system is flexible and we availed ourselves of that flexibility through the crisis period. Obviously our life was made easier by the fact that the difficulties we faced were markedly less than those in other countries, but the framework we had established over a number of years did make our task easier.
The extent of liquidity we provided can be gauged by looking at the evolution of exchange settlement (ES) balances which are the balances in the accounts that financial institutions hold with us. As counterparty risk rose, banks were more inclined to hold larger precautionary balances with us. To allow us to provide assistance to the debt markets by undertaking more repos without putting undue pressure on the overnight cash market, in late October, we introduced a term deposit facility This was effectively an ES balance held for a week or two, rather than overnight.
Graph 10 shows that balances held at the RBA peaked in late 2008 at the height of global risk aversion. But notwithstanding a recent seasonal increase around the end of the year, ES balances are back to around $1½ billion and banks no longer have any term deposits with us. So that aspect of our liquidity support has been fully unwound.
To provide some certainty to longer term funding, we offered 6 month and 1 year terms for our repos on a daily basis from October 2008. But as demand for these longer terms diminished, we ceased offering these daily, although we are still willing to deal at these longer terms if it is consistent with our liquidity management objectives and the pricing is appropriate.
Another action we took during the crisis was to expand the sphere of collateral eligible for our market operations. We now accept all AAA-rated paper (except highly structured paper). As I have said before, we intend to maintain that wider collateral pool.
Another significant change to our collateral policy we made was to accept so-called self-securitised RMBS from the issuing institution. Our counterparties made extensive use of this, particularly as collateral for our longer-term repos. By the end of December 2008, self-securitised RMBS accounted for just under half of our repo collateral. But as those repos have matured, their share of our collateral has declined to under a quarter.
Composition of Repo Book
Collateral Type
End Jun 2008 Per cent
End Dec 2008 Per cent
End Jan 2010 Per cent
General Collateral
– CGS
– Semis
– Supras
– Govt Guaranteed ADI paper
Private Securities
– ADI paper
– RMBS (self-securitised)
– RMBS (other)
– ABCP
Total value of Repo Book ($b)
Finally, in October 2008, we, along with a number of other central banks, established a foreign exchange swap facility with the Fed. This facility was introduced to address the global shortage of US dollars (outside the US) which was causing a substantial dislocation in swap markets.[4] Under this facility, we auctioned US dollars, obtained under swap from the Fed for Australian dollars, to our domestic counterparties in exchange for domestic collateral. (We took a larger than normal margin on that collateral to protect us from the exchange rate risk). Usage of this facility peaked at the end of December 2008 and it was last accessed here in April 2009. The facility was formally terminated, along with those of other central banks, on 1 February.
The clear theme here is that the RBA did provide assistance to contribute to the smoother functioning of financial markets through the turbulence, but the assistance we were required to provide was considerably less than in other countries, and importantly, we have been able to unwind it as market conditions have improved.
Lingering risks
As I hope I have made clear, there has been a significant improvement in financial market conditions since their nadir just over a year ago. However, risks remain. I do not see these downside risks in Australian or Asian financial markets but rather in the major North Atlantic markets of the US, Europe and the UK. Indeed, in Asia, the risks are more on the upside. While most of the recent jitters have been associated with sovereign concerns, I think risks stemming from the financial sector are still there.
To some extent, one can characterise much of the past three years as problems originating in the financial sector feeding into the macroeconomy. We are now into the phase where the weakness in the global macroeconomy is feeding back into the financial sector.
In that regard, a significant risk, in my assessment, is that we are still yet to see the full impact of the weakness in the North Atlantic economies on the loans on the books of financial institutions. The bulk of the losses to date by these institutions have been write-downs in the value of securities held on their books. While these write-downs have been absorbed, albeit with some difficulty and with substantial capital raisings, given the size of the output contraction, one would expect that we are not all that far advanced in the adverse credit cycle that normally accompanies recessions. For the North Atlantic economies, this was a big recession which, combined with large falls in both commercial and housing property prices, should result in large loan losses.
Last May, the US authorities released the results of a stress test of their 19 largest financial institutions and concluded that these institutions could survive a scenario not dissimilar to the one we are seeing currently. In some cases, survival was predicated on the raising of additional capital which has subsequently occurred. While one therefore might be reasonably confident of the ability of these institutions to absorb the deterioration in their loan books, my concern is more with the second tier (and beyond) of the US financial system. This lower tier, which is a sizeable share of the US financial sector, has loan portfolios which are very regionally concentrated with a sizeable weighting to commercial property. The experience of previous cycles indicates that the commercial property cycle takes a long time to unfold, and we may have some way yet to travel. These problems in the banking system will almost certainly hinder credit provision in the US, particularly to the SME sector, which doesn't have the direct access to capital markets that larger corporates have.
Even though one might be relatively confident that the major financial institutions have the ability to absorb the loan losses still to come, there may also be a concern that there could be an adverse effect on public confidence, should these institutions report further quarterly losses. The general public might well be surprised that losses are continuing to occur, given the sizeable public sector support that has already been provided.
While these risks are there in the North Atlantic, they are not present in our part of the world. In Asia, bank balance sheets have remained in sound condition throughout and hence are no impediment to credit provision. Indeed, there is a marked contrast between the balance and nature of the risks in Asia and the North Atlantic. While the near-term risks may be on the downside in the US and Europe, they would appear to be on the upside in Asia. The interplay between the contrasting fortunes of these two parts of the world is likely to be the critical factor in determining the evolution of the global economy, and Australia is now more tied into one than the other.
But the above are risks, not the central case. The central case is that financial markets have improved considerably over the past year. This improvement has allowed a sizeable portion of the interventions in financial markets undertaken by central banks over the past three years to be unwound. This is particularly true in Australia, where the measures we undertook were considerably less and have been unwound.
I thank Anna Brown for her assistance with this talk. [*]
I spoke about this at length not long ago, see 'Whither Securitisation?', speech given to the Australian Securitisation Conference 2009, 18 November 2009. [1]
My colleague John Broadbent talked about this late last year, see 'Reconnecting Corporate Australia with Frozen Credit Markets', speech given to Corporate Finance World Australia 2009, 10 November 2009. [2]
'The Australian Foreign Exchange Market in the Recovery', speech given to the Westpac Research and Strategy Forum, 10 December 2009. [3]
Baba N and F. Packer (2009), 'From turmoil to crisis: dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers', BIS Working Paper no. 285. [4]

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Practice Chanter Reed $8.50
New selection system in play for Silver Medal events
The Argyllshire Gathering Silver Medal in the hand of 2018 winner, Darach Urquhart. [Photo Alister Sinclair]
The Competing Pipers Association has tabled a proposed overhaul to the selection process for applicants to the Silver Medal piobaireachd competitions in Scotland at the Northern Meeting at Inverness and Oban's Argyllshire Gathering.
The system will see more formal qualification criteria, attempting to solve the tradition of over‐subscription, questionable decisions and murky process that has persisted since the events were started in 1977, coincidentally, as a qualifying method for the oversubscribed Highland Society of London Gold Medal events.
The proposal, which will go to the UK's Joint Committee for Piping of organizations with an interest in the competitions, involves deploying certain criteria "with the aim of having the very best 26 players gaining entry into the Silver Medal, and a transparent eligibility framework for places in the competition," according the plan.
The Joint Committee for Solo Piping comprises representatives from the Northern Meeting, the Argyllshire Gathering, the Isle of Skye Highland Games, the Scottish Piping Society of London, the Scottish Pipers' Association, the Inveraray Highland Games, Glenfiddich Piping & Fiddle, the Piping Live Masters Solo Competition, the National Mod, the Competing Pipers' Association, and the Solo Piping Judges Association.
The CPA has come up with a formula in which designated competitions in the previous season will act as qualifiers for the following year's Silver Medals, including those who gained a prize in a Silver Medal that year, all CPA members grade A‐ in piobaireachd, winners of designated B‐Grade competitions, and standings from placings in select B‐Grade events in the UK and North America.
The winner or winners of the Silver Medals will continue to move automatically into the Gold Medal competitions.
Designated B-Grade events in the UK:
Blair Atholl Games
Blairgowrie Games
Capt. John MacLellan Memorial
Cowal Gathering
Duncan Johnstone Memorial
Inveraray Games
MacGregor Memorial
Perth Games
Rosneath Games
Also on the list are the Annual Gathering of the British Columbia Pipers Association, and Winter Storm at Kansas City.
There are no events in Ontario on the list, but CPA President Glenn Brown did not rule out their inclusion.
"There's potential to create more events or incorporate an event at say the Toronto Indoor Games or Maxville," Brown said. "Also, at the moment, so many of these players are coming over to compete at the Duncan Johnstone, Cowal, Blairgowrie, the Capt. John Memorial and London."
Only the BCPA Annual Gathering has events for those with a CPA grading. No other solo piping events in North America, including Winter Storm, adhere to CPA gradings, which do not distinguish between professional-class or amateur competitors, and essentially anyone 18 or older who wishes to compete in the UK needs a CPA grading. Exceptions are a few events run by the Competition League of Amateur Solo Pipers (CLASP), run by the National Piping Centre, which cater to older adult amateur solo players who do not wish to compete against better CPA graded players.
Those Graded C by the CPA often compete in Amateur Grade 1 in North America, resulting in some confusion when pipers who have won prizes in C-Grade events in the UK return to North America to compete as amateurs.
The CPA hopes that the new system will be deployed with the 2019 Silver Medal events, with the 26 automatically pre-qualified competitors knowing of their status before the end of 2019. The current system, or lack of one, typically saw competitors notified of their acceptance/rejection in the spring.
Previously, the Joint Committee would meet to go through applications to the Northern Meeting and Argyllshire Gathering, reviewing each piper's track record of success, CPA grading, letters of reference, and anecdotal evidence based on personal assessments from those who might be familiar with the piper's ability.
"We feel that having a more robust and transparent method of qualification will give everyone more certainty around the process," the proposal stated. "It will give players the certainty of a place in the event and clarify the parameters they must satisfy to be included. It gives the CPA a black and white method of answering its membership when questioned on inclusion or non‐inclusion and it gives the AG/NM the certainty that they will have the 26 most consistent/strongest players for their events."
At the same time, the CPA "strongly encouraged" participation in other Highland games "to improve their track record and get experience competing."
In a statement, the CPA said, "With 65 B-Grade players, it's very difficult for the CPA and Joint Committee coming up with the list of who gets into the medals each year. This lays out the exact method in which the player will get into the Silver Medals. Essentially, every competitors fate is in their own hands. We understand that this first year will have a learning curve and are prepared to take action where needed in the future."
"The proposed new qualification process seems fair and transparent and will have the added benefit of letting Silver Medal qualifiers know where they stand much earlier than in the past," said Alan Forbes, Northern Meeting Convenor of Piping.
Pipers: In prematurely changing the physical characteristics of your chanter, you may create greater problems for yourself than those which you initially sought to remedy.
− Lionel Tupman, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario


With Olivia under the weather, Operation Mr. Mom is underway. Successfully got Kate to school and now enjoying breakfast at Cracker Barrel before taking Sara to preschool. Obviously I'm not very good at fixing Sara's hair.
Home » Blog » Family » With Olivia under the weather, Operation Mr. Mom is underway. Successfully got Kate to school and now enjoying breakfast at Cracker Barrel before taking Sara to preschool. Obviously I'm not very good at fixing Sara's hair.


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exA-Arcadia (japonés: エクサ・アルカディア, Hepburn: Ekusa Arukadia) es un sistema de placa base para máquinas recreativas desarrollada por la compañía exA-Arcadia PTE. LTD., debutando en Japón el 27 de noviembre de 2019.

Calificada por sus creadores como un intento para "regresar los videojuegos al Arcade", la placa se caracteriza por no tener bloqueo regional a través de conexiones a internet y una mentalidad de distribución internacional, a diferencia de la competencia durante la década del 2010 que solamente funciona dentro de Japón como NESiCAxLive de Taito o ALL.Net P-ras de Sega.

Su hardware está basado en arquitectura de PC con el uso de sistema operativo base de Windows y a través del uso de cartuchos. Este hardware, inspirado en Neo Geo, soporta hasta cuatro cartuchos intercambiables al mismo tiempo, por lo que el usuario tiene la opción de elegir el juego a su gusto a través de una Interfaz de usuario.

Historia

Durante la década de los 2000 la industria del mercado Arcade recibió una fuerte caída, lo que terminó cortando casi en su totalidad la producción de nuevos juegos fuera de Japón con excepciones muy específicas. Durante este proceso, la industria japonesa de las recreativas saltó de la creación de hardware propio al uso de arquitectura de PC genérica, con placas como Type-X o Bemani PC. A pesar de que en un principio estos juegos podían ser adquiridos fuera de Japón, con el paso de los años varias compañías aplicaron sistemas de seguridad con conexión a internet y servicios de arriendo por distribución digital que solamente funcionan dentro de Japón, sin posibilidad alguna de poder adquirir estos juegos fuera del país de manera legal.

ExA-Arcadia nació como proyecto el año 2017 creado por Eric "ShouTime" Chang, coleccionista de placas recreativa y conocido por participar en la creación y distribución de varias imágenes de ROM para MAME, así también por participar en varias instancias del torneo de juegos de pelea Evolution Championship Series. Uno de sus mayores puntos de filosofía era volver a distribuir una placa recreativa a nivel internacional, sin este tipo de bloqueos y con soporte a la industria independiente mundial. ExA-Arcadia fue revelada públicamente en el evento JAEPO del 2018. El jingle del logotipo fue compuesto por Manabu Namiki.

El 27 de noviembre de 2019 exA-Arcadia debutó en el mercado japonés con su primer juego, Aka to Blue Type Revolution, un Matamarcianos desarrollado por la compañía Tanoshimasu. El lanzamiento de la placa a nivel internacional fue retrasado sin fecha exacta para el 2020, a cambio Aka to Blue Type Revolution recibirá una versión internacional con bugs corregidos y agregados extras. El precio de la preventa internacional de exa-Arcadia es de 3,549 dólares de Singapur, puesto que la fabricación de la placa está manufacturada en dicho país.

El 15 de abril de 2020, el medio de noticias de videojuegos Famitsu confirmó que toda la primera tirada de unidades de exA-Arcadia para el mercado japonés fueron vendidas y que revelarían más de 25 títulos de acá a fin de año.

Especificaciones técnicas

 Sistema operativo: Microsoft Windows
 CPU:Intel Core i3-8100
 Memoria RAM: DDR4-2400 8GB
 Video: Tarjeta de video basada en serie NVIDIA GeForce
 Resolución: 1080p・768p・720p・480p(4:3). Puede funcionar tanto con pantalla en posición horizontal como vertical
 Conexión estándar: JVS. La I/O puede ser modificada para ser compatible con el estándar JAMMA
 Conexión externa: Wi-Fi
 Media: Cartuchos ROM. Soporte de hasta cuatro cartuchos al mismo tiempo. Los juegos pueden recibir actualizaciones por internet de manera gratis.
 Motores gráficos soportados: Unity, Unreal Engine 4, Game Maker Studio, Corona, STG Builder, 2D Kakutou Circle 2nd

Lista de juegos

Títulos publicados

Títulos por salir

Títulos cancelados

Véase también

 SNK Neo-Geo
 Capcom CPS-2
 Sega NAOMI
 Sammy Atomiswave

Referencias

Enlaces externos
 Página oficial de exA
 Cuenta de Twitter
 Canal de YouTube

Placas arcade

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Missing Lorraine Ridout's daughter: 'I believe sightings have gone unreported'
Mystery continues to surround the whereabouts of Lorraine, who disappeared 17 weeks ago.
(L-R) Christine Ridout and sister Sarah Ridout's mother Lorraine, 57, went missing in January
Sign up here to get the CardiffOnline newsletter sent straight to your inbox
The daughter of a Cardiff woman who vanished nearly four months ago believes sightings of the popular grandmother may have gone unreported.
The 57-year-old left her home in Gabalfa to visit a friend at 7pm on January 31 and has not been seen since.
Despite land searches and police divers scouring the river, no clues about what happened have been turned up.
Christine Ridout (left)
Christine Ridout, her daughter, told WalesOnline the pain of her mum disappearing was "getting worse".
"It's definitely getting worse because it impacts on daily life," she said.
"You wake up in the morning thinking about it and you go to bed at night and it is worse.
"I'm back in work now but it is always on my mind."
The daughter of missing Lorraine Ridout fears her mother may never be found
Hundreds of posters of Lorraine Ridout have been circulated
The police investigation to find Lorraine is ongoing, but Christine says she has been told her mum might never be located.
"I believe in my heart that someone saw her that night but is not coming forward," she said. "You can't just vanish."
Lorraine, who has mental health issues, has been missing her daily medication since she disappeared.
"The last time she was seen was by her friend and after that there were no more sightings," Christine said.
Sarah Ridout, left, and Christine went out on a boat on the River Taff after a clairvoyant pinpointed a spot near Clarence Bridge in Grangetown, Cardiff, where he said he believed their missing mother Lorraine may be
"In this area there are always people driving around, going to the shop or wherever. I just find it a bit odd."
Christine had been convinced her mum had fallen in the River Taff.
"I think if she had been in the water she would have come up by now," she said.
"I do not know what to think any more. It's very strange."
Police search River Taff for fifth time as they continue to look for missing Lorraine Ridout
Lorraine Ridout's disappearance sparked a police appeal fronted by her daughter Christine (centre)
All the family were desperately missing Lorraine, who is married to Steven, also 57.
"The family are struggling," Christine said.
"She is a mum, a wife, a sister and a friend. She needs to be found.
"If it was anyone else she would feel for those people. She would be saying, 'That is terrible' because that is the type of person she was."
She said a new team had been assigned to the search.
"They say after a person has been missing for so long it goes to what is called the crime squad because she has been missing X amount of weeks," Christine said.
Lorraine's daughters Christine and Sarah hug as family, friends and helpers take part in the search
"My son has been badly affected and has been having seizures. I think that is to do with this. He has been calling out for my mum in the middle of the night.
"It must be emotionally triggered. It is taking its toll. It has taken its toll on all of us.
"But you have got to never give up. I am hoping someone will find her.
"That is the only thing I can do at this point. There were 1,500 posters up and it has not generated anything."
In the past Christine has spoken to private divers about searching the river but they admitted they did not have the equipment or expertise of police divers.
Psychic tells missing Lorraine Ridout's family where she is
Neighbours, friends and family gather at Gabalfa Avenue to search for missing Lorraine Ridout by taking posters to shops across Cardiff (Image: Andrew James)
She is considering organising another land search. Volunteers have helped search a number of times already.
"I know the public are willing to help," Christine said.
"We want to see what areas there are that have not been searched and can be.
"We could probably get a good group of people together."
Gabalfa


text:
module FactoryBaby
  class CreditCards

    attr_reader :collection, :collection_by_number, :collection_by_user

    def initialize
      @collection           = []
      @collection_by_number = {}
      @collection_by_user   = {}
    end

    def add(attrs={})
      cc = CreditCard.new(attrs)
      number = attrs[:number]

      # Implies credit_card_number contains numeric char
      raise CreditCardNotValid unless cc.valid? && number.to_i.to_s == number.to_s
      raise CreditCardAlreadyUsed unless self.collection_by_number[cc.number].nil?
      raise UserNotExisting unless $users[attrs[:user]]

      self.collection << cc
      self.collection_by_number[cc.number] = cc
      self.collection_by_user[cc.user]     = cc
      Logger.puts "Credit card #{cc.number} added to #{attrs[:user]}"
    rescue CreditCardNotValid
      Logger.puts_error "This card is invalid"
    rescue CreditCardAlreadyUsed
      Logger.puts_error "That card has already been added by another user, reported for fraud!"
    rescue UserNotExisting
      Logger.puts_error "This user #{attrs[:user]} doesn't exist"
    ensure
      return self
    end

  end

  class CreditCard
    LENGTH = 19

    attr_reader :number, :user

    def initialize(attrs={})
      @number = attrs[:number].to_i
      @user   = attrs[:user]
    end

    # Use Luhn-10 algorithm
    # Inspired from http://www.missiondata.com/blog/web-development/25/credit-card-type-and-luhn-check-in-ruby/
    def valid?
      numbers = number.to_s
      return false if numbers.length > LENGTH

      # turn numbers into array
      # '123' => ['1', '2', '3']
      numbers = numbers.split('')

      # Iterating numbers, initialize sum to 0
      # Last line (sum + value) of this block implicitly assign the new value to sum
      result = numbers.each_with_index.inject(0) do |sum, (value, index)|

        # Make sure value is an Integer
        value = value.to_i

        value = value * 2 if (index.even? && numbers.size.even?) || (index.odd? && numbers.size.odd?)
        value = value - 9 if value > 9 # 15 -> 1+5 = 6 is same thing as 15 -> 15 - 9 = 6

        sum + value
      end

      result % 10 == 0
    end

  end
end

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Q: An open problem in Sobolev spaces Let $\Omega\subset\mathbb{R}^n$ be a bounded domain. Suppose that there there is a bounded extension operator
$$
E:W^{1,p}(\Omega)\to W^{1,p}(\mathbb{R}^n)
\quad
\text{and}
\quad
E:W^{1,q}(\Omega)\to W^{1,q}(\mathbb{R}^n),
$$
where $1\leq p<q\leq\infty$ (or $1<p<q<\infty$ if you find it easier).

Open problem. Does it follow that $$ E:W^{1,r}(\Omega)\to W^{1,r}(\mathbb{R}^n) $$ for all $p<r<q$?

Some partial results are known, but the general case seems to be difficult. It looks like a simple interpolation exercise, but it is not.
Later, when I have time I will add some references to known results.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Gu Gu first made news in 2007 when he bit a drunken tourist who jumped into his pen and tried to hug him. The tourist retaliated by biting the panda in the back.
In October, Gu Gu viciously bit a teenager who climbed into his exercise area out of curiosity.
The Beijing News said the latest victim, Zhang Jiao of central Anhui province, suffered damage to major ligaments and is recovering from surgery. The newspaper quoted tourists as saying Zhang appeared to first look around to see if pandas were nearby before jumping in to get his 5-year-old son's toy.
What the hell did I tell you people last month?! "I totally blame movies like Kung Fu Panda for attempting to humanize these dangerous creatures in a way that betrays their true and violent nature. I mean, they are not called panda kittens or panda puppies. They are panda motherfucking bears."


text:
Q: How to make vscode show type info for exported function from another .js file? Showing type information in vscode for Typescript files is pretty simply via the /// <reference path ... comment. However, I have the case where I use exported functions from one js file in another. The exported functions have been annotated to contain type information. Here's an example (lib/index.js):
/**
 * Put the executing thread to sleep for the given amount of milliseconds.
 * @param {number} milliseconds
 */
exports.sleep = function (milliseconds) {
    var end = new Date().getTime() + milliseconds;
    while (new Date().getTime() < end) { }
}

In my main.js file I do:
var lib = require("lib");
lib.sleep(500);

Unfortunately, vscode does not provide the call signature of that sleep function nor can I use cmd/ctrl+click to navigate to it.
I also created a typings file and referenced that in main.js, which works almost like I want, except that it doesn't take me to the original source, but instead to the typings file when I cmd/ctrl+click on the function name.
Is it possible and how to let vscode recognize exports in other JS files and provide call information and code navigation for them?

A: Change require path to ./lib
var lib = require("./lib");
lib.sleep(500);


text:
Bobcats Sentenced to Death by NCAA - Play Texas in First Round
No chance. Zero. Ain't gonna happen. It's unfortunate, really. As long as the Texas schools in the Big 12 have incredible years, the Southland Conference Tournament champion will always await doomsday in the Big Dance with a national powerhouse.
If the Southland representative played a really strong schedule and ran through the conference basically unscathed, then its possible that the NCAA would not assign our school a "Texas-like" fate in the first round. Of course, the big giant will lurk in the attempt to get to the Sweet 16. Witness a couple of years ago when we were assigned Alabama before our date with death.
For a Southland school to ever make the Sweet 16 would be a true odds-beater. Think about how different things will be in Gregory Gym (nice name, BTW) as opposed to the Convocation Center in San Antonio. Both facilities hold roughly 4000 fans. There will be a ton of burnt orange in the stands and it most certainly will be loud and intimidating.
I applaud Texas State's run to this point. They earned this right, but let's not get confused. They're done. No one would be surprised to see Texas meet up with undefeated Penn State in the title match. Texas' only loss on the season was a five-setter in Ames, Iowa to Big 12 foe Iowa State. It wasn't a huge upset. Iowa State was ranked #8 at the time. Man, wouldn't you have loved to have seen that match? In an interesting twist.. ISU and Texas could meet up again in the Elite 8 - if all falls according to seed, then they will.
NCAA Volleyball tournament pairings are generally much more true to region that you see in basketball. Most folks familiar with the basketball tournament know that geography is often minimized when assigning teams to various brackets and regions. That's not true in volleyball. A case in point is that Rice and TCU will play before Texas and Texas State on Thursday afternoon. One exception to the regionalization issue is yours truly's alma matter Baylor who was sent out to LA to face off against Georgia Tech and then play the winner of host UCLA and Long Beach State.
To give you a feel for volleyball strength around us, half of the Big 12 is in the tournament with Texas (2), aforementioned Iowa State (7) and Nebraska (10) earning three of the 16 host "top seeds". Then there is Baylor, Texas A&M and Oklahoma also playing in post-season. (Note: the Big 12 does NOT have a conference tournament). Couple those six with Rice, TCU, LSU, and (SFA-opponent) Tulane and that represents some good local competition.
Non-conference scheduling has been a subject of my posting here before. In fact, Debbie Humphreys and I have discussed this on various occasions and I have a slightly different view on it than her. I favor the Texas State model...try and load up on tough non-conference teams. In my mind, the eventual SLC tourney champion needs to position themselves for a reasonable shot at the Sweet 16. To do this, you have to rip the conference and finish with a high enough RPI that you don't get assigned "Texas" in the first round. If you can get a more reasonable opponent in the first round, then there are two good things that can happen. First, you have a decent shot of winning and second - there is the chance the "big boy" will get upset in the first round and you get a weaker opponent in order to make the final 16. Worst case scenario is what happened to us a few years back: you lose to the host in the sub-regional final. Well, real worst case scenario is you still lose in the first round, but I think you see my point.
See, without scheduling a cracker-jack non-conference schedule, I don't see how a SLC team will really ever get a "break" in the first round of the tourney unless you win 62 straight conference games or something. If your ULTIMATE goal is to give yourself a chance to make the Sweet 16, then it seems you have to schedule heavy.
Hey, I don't cheer for the University of Texas at all. NEVER. So, yeah, I'd love it if the Bobcats "shocked the world". But...they're season is done. Need more evidence? Texas lost 10 SETS all year. Every one of the sets they lost was either to a foreign national team or a team in the NCAA tourney. Now, that's impressive.
Texas State loses 3-0 in what will be a very quick match. But, if you ask me would I rather be traveling to Austin this week to watch SFA play in the tournament against UT? You know my answer would be "yes".
Labels: NCAA Tournament, Texas State
Live Chat For Southland Conference Tournament Championship
Make sure and head over to www.sfajacks.com a few minutes before 2:00 PM Sunday to join Assistant Sports Information Director Ben Rikard and I as we cover the Ladyjacks attempt to earn an autommatic bid to the NCAA Tourney.
First serve from the Convocation Center is at 2:00 PM between Texas State and SFA. See you at the chat!
Day 2: Southland Conference Tournament
12:55: Just about ready to go with Lamar and Texas State. This should be a dogfight. Anxious to see who will step up. Just had a really nice conversation with SHSU head coach Brenda Gray. Was also hoping to to talk with Gibert pre-match as well, but his club has been warming up so, of course, he's got things to do. Texas State has got a good contingent of fans in the house this afternoon.
1:25: Texas State finishes off Lamar in set 1. Lots of action at the net. Texas State with six blocks in the first set alone - four by Jillian Wolpman. Lamar blocked three balls and Jayme Bazile was in on all three. She is a huge presence at the net, even if she is rail thin. Lamar hits just .027 in the first set. Cave with five kills on five attacks for Texas State.
1:48: Role reversal. Lamar jumps out to a 6-0 lead in set 2 and makes it stick winning set 2 and tying things up at halftime. Meengs for Lamar continues to impress...she leads the entire field in kills from the setter position. Meengs' has eight kills with no errors. She is such a weapon at her position. Almost a reversal of stats in set 2 with Lamar hitting .222 and Texas State hitting an even .000. Thought we'd get a dogfight and it looks like we've got one.
2:26: What a slug fest between Lamar and Texas State. A very well played and tight set there in Set 3. Texas State comes back to win in extra action 28-26. The Bobcats hit .317 in the set and Melinda Cave now has a double-double with 10 kills and 11 digs. Middleton with the winner at the end for Texas State on a huge kill. Meengs already has a TRIPLE-double in three sets. 12 kills on no errors, 23 assists and 14 digs already. She looks headed for at least a double-twenty. In my opinion, this has been the best volleyball of the tournament.
2:56: A truly spectacular match. Texas State takes extra time to win, but does so 26-24 in the fourth set to finish the Cardinals. Very impressive on both sides. If we get past Nicholls, we will have to play at a very high level - something we definitely CAN do - in order to take this championship. Meengs for Lamar finishes with 15 kills and 19 digs and 35 assists. Incredibly impressive. Middleton paces Texas State with 16 kills and Amber Calhoun registers nine blocks. Cave played very well too. The best match of the tourney, easily.
Time to switch over now and join Ben and I in the chat room. One hour 'till first serve. Go get a snack, check in on Lumberjack football and then get to www.sfajacks.com in an hour.
A Clarification On Reaction to All -SLC Picks
Yesterday while watching matches at the Convocation Center I learned a little fact that I otherwise did not know last week. It turns out that the All-SLC picks begin with nominations from each school and that as a part of that system, each school is allowed to submit just one Freshman for possible Freshman of the Year honors. The same is true for Newcomer, Libero and Setter of the Year. I wasn't aware of this because frankly, I wouldn't have expected the Conference to use such a poor method of creating the All-SLC ballots. More on that in a minute.
The point, though, is that Lamar was not ALLOWED to submit both Wendy Krell and Jayme Bazile's names for Freshman of the Year. Thus, my rant about Bazile being more deserving during the year is really a moot point because NO ONE could vote for her after Lamar decided it wanted to submit Krell as their nominee. I feel that needed clarification. Bazile wasn't even on the ballot.
So, two things:
1) I think Lamar submitted the wrong choice. Now, Krell played a lot - and well - yesterday versus UTA and Bazile didn't really get in. Bazile had a funky leg wrap on so I don't know what was up with that. You know.. I might get a chance to talk with Justin Gibert today. We saw each other yesterday, but I didn't want to quiz him. Maybe today the opportunity to speak with him will arise.
2) Each school is allowed to submit five names for All-SLC honors and like mentioned above...one name for Freshman, Newcomer, et al. What in the world kind of system is that? Look. There is no need to have nominations for All-Conference. None. The responsibility should fall squarely on the coaches and Volleyball SID's to make their picks based on some scoring system (the one they have is reasonable) without a nomination sheet.
I assure you, the coaches know the players on the other teams and they don't need a list to go off of. As far as the SID's? It is their JOB to keep up. They are paid to do it. Ours does an incredible job of keeping up. Trust me, Debbie and Ben can defend their picks. Whether they agree with mine or yours is beside the point. I don't have a ballot and gosh knows I don't deserve one.
Here is the simple fact: It just isn't that hard to keep up with the league. There are roughly only 130-140 volleyball players in the SLC. Over the course of an entire season, it isn't hard to learn the names (and sort through the numbers and articles) of these girls. There are under 100 girls that regularly play, that is, there are under 100 regular "starters" in the league. That just isn't that many people to keep up with. It takes at most two hours a week to read every single volleyball article published around the league - maybe one hour per week.
Just give the coaches and SID's a blank piece of paper. Tell them to submit their top "x" players for conference honors (they can't vote for their own team...which is fine) and then tell them to submit their top "y" choices for Freshman, Newcomer, et al of the Year. Apply your ranking system and...boom.. All-SLC/awards.
I assumed something like this was what they did. I assumed wrong and that's my fault. But, the fact that schools can only submit a finite number of names and only one for certain awards is a poor accounting system at best. At worst, its dumb. The conference should fix this.
What if you regularly started four freshman and they all produced at high levels? You're telling me that the head coach of that team has to restrict him/herself to one nomination? The rest of the league who played against these four girls can't sort them out? Yes, the coach of the team with the four girls knows them best. Hence, why I would like to speak with Gibert. But, a coach shouldn't determine who is eligible for an award as high as Freshman of the Year. The LEAGUE should. It's a LEAGUE honor, not a team honor.
I'm sure I am in the minority on this, but hey...it's my picture over there in the right hand column and that's my two cents.
10:43 AM: Well, after a 5:20 departure from Nacogdoches, and a soggy last hour drive, we are all set up courtside and ready to go for Day 1 of the SLC Tournament. Texas State and SELA are about 15 minutes away from first serve. Crowd filing in here at the Convo. Glad to be nice and dry. It is pouring outside.
11:53 AM: Well, Ben set the over/under at 1:12 for Texas State to eliminate SELA and he's the man. We are on a 1:15 pace so far with Texas State up over Southeastern Louisiana 2-0. Weynand has seven kills with no errors and the Bobacats are hitting .310 compared to SELA's .083. The scores in the sets were 25-16 and 25-15 - about what we expected here in match one.
12:12 PM: Texas State finishes off Southeastern La. 3-0 (25-16, 25-15, 25-20) and advances to the semifinal tomorrow against the winner of our next match which will pit Lamar against UTA. Weynand finishes with a match-high 11 kills (just one err0r). Courtney Donald finishes with a team high seven kills for SELA. Alex Greer digs 12 balls, but SELA hits just .093 for the match and is still looking for their first ever SLC Tourney win. The Bobacats hit .284 as a team in the win. Jessica Srajer, one of SELA's better attackers just could never get on track and finished with just four kills against six errors. The Bobcats hit over .200 in each set. Both teams killed 32 balls, but SELA made 23 errors against only nine for the whole match for Texas State.
12:45 PM: Sitting around waiting for UTSA to get the hospitality room hospitable so we can chow down on free lunch. Forgot to mention that one of the highlights of Game 1 was Jessica Weynand and Brittany Collins of Texas State colliding and then falling into the referee ladder with head ref Ron Stahl perched upon it. We are sitting directly behind the head umpire chair and I really thought Stahl was coming down! It teetered back and forth, but alas... no tumbling down. Dern. I could have teased Stahl about that for years. Lamar and UTA warming up and they get started in 40 minutes according to the clock here in the Convo.
1:55PM: Wow. UT-Arlington comes out absolutely on fire...and FIRED up. They have WAY more energy right now than Lamar and they take set 1 from the Cardinals by a score of 25-21. Tara Frantz doing her best rebuttal to my headshaking of her being 1st team all-conference. Frantz with 8 kills in the first set with no errors. UTA hit a scorching.381 in the first set and the blocking of Emily Shearin and Christy Driscoll was impressive. For some reason Lauren Holdorff did not play in set 1 for Lamar.
2:15 PM: UTA still with more energy, but the attacking goes completely sour for the Mavs and Lamar evens things up at halftime. Tied 1-1.
2:51 PM: Very impressed with UTA's defense. Emily Shearin with five blocks thru three sets, Driscoll with five as well. Offense? Not so much. UTA hits .051 for the third set and now Lamar owns a 2-1 lead. Play at the net has been very good, but Krell (10 kills), Brewer (9) and Holdorff(7 in two sets) proving to be too strong.
3:16 PM: Arlington plays much better in set 4, but can't hold off the Cardinals who advance to day 2 with a 3-1 win. I was very, very impressed with the Mavs' Emily Shearin. Earlier in the week, I argued for McNeese's Nicole Bowden in that she outplaced Shearin throughout the year. But here today, Shearin showed me a great deal. She finishes the match with 17 kills - most for all players and five blocks. Lamar is paced by Brewer with 14 kills...Krell added 12. UTA showed a great deal more spunk here than when they came to Nacogdoches, but ultimately Lamar had too many weapons. Lamar will face Texas State in the first match tomorrow. Next up in about 40 minutes.... SHSU vs. Nicholls in Game 3 of the day.
3:56 PM: The girls just entered the Convo. Syd sporting some serious shades, I must say.
4:54 PM: Nicholls and Sam Houston tied a one set a piece at halftime. As usual, its the Annacarli and nothing else on offense for SHSU. Neither team hitting over .200, but Nicholls playing much more crisp than they did in Nacogdoches. Sam is vulnerable right now... after losing several matches down the stretch. Manieka Golden leading the way for the Colonels with 11 kills and Ferguson with a match high 13 at the break. Danielle Daigle having an awesome day...digging up a bunch of Kolbe and Ferguson attacks. She heads to the locker room with 14 digs in just two sets.
5:30 PM: We may have our first upset of the tournament brewing after Nicholls takes set 3 behind absolutely ON FIRE Manieka Golden. Nicholls now leads Sam Houston 2-1. Golden has 16 kills against only three errors. Freshman Jennifer Brandt is in to double figures as well with 11 kills. Daigle up to 20 digs. Ferguson has 19 kills for SHSU. Nicholls hit a whopping .325 in the third set. They look like a totally different team than the one that showed up a week ago in Nacogdoches.
6:01 PM: Nicholls completes the upset! #2 Seed SHSU sent packing to Huntsville. What a performance by Golden for Nicholls: 21 kills, 4 errrors, .405 attack percentage. When push came to shove, the Annacarli wasn't enough as some people have hinted at during the year. Nicholls was a force from the get go tonight. Both liberos, Daigle for Nicholls and Hawkins for SHSU had 26 digs. A very impressive performance from Chris Laird's group tonight. That must be a glimpse of the team that beat us 3-2 in Louisiana earlier in the year.
OK, that's all for today...time for you to switch over to http://www.sfajacks.com/. Ben and I will be in the chat room in approximately 15-20 minutes. Winner of SFA/UTSA will play Nicholls State tomorrow at 4:00. We'll have a Day 2 commentary running during the first match tomorrow featuring Texas State and Lamar.
GO SFA! Axe' Em 'Jacks!
Live Chat Friday at 6:30, Running Commentary During Day 1 of Tourney
Just a real quick post to let readers know that I will be doing two things tomorrow in San Antonio that you might take some interest in. First off, during the matches leading up to ours at 6:30 I will be providing diary style running commentary. Every so often during the day Friday I will log on and post reactions and commentary to things going on courtside at the Convocation Center. Jog by and check up on the happenings to stay plugged in and prepare for our match at 6:30.
Once we get to game time, you will want to switch over to the Volleyball Home Page at www.sfajacks.com . There, Ben will have set up our live chat window and you can follow along with Ben and I as we chat live during the match with fans, parents, friends and anyone fortunate enough to wander in the chat room! You can even stream along with the action over at www.southland.org AND join us for the chat.
You've got no excuse! There are plenty of ways for you to be right there in the middle of the action even if you can't join us all in San Antonio.
Right now, I am still in Nacogdoches and planning a 5:00 AM departure early in the morning. So, its time for me to get to bed early because we've got a FULL day ahead of us tomorrow. Plus, it looks like rain, so hopefully the drive won't be bad and we'll be dry and comfortable inside the Convo.
Axe 'Em Jacks!
Labels: live blog, SLC Tournament
Stats 101: Hanlan, Cowgirls Dissed by Conference
As expected, the Southland Conference teases us with the release of the All-Conference teams right before the tournament which will determine which school represents the SLC in the NCAA Big Dance. To avoid selection bias, I put out my picks two days ago in the post underneath this one. As I stated there, picking All-Stars or All-Conference or All-Tournament teams is an inexact science. People will always see things different ways. However, this is a blog. Not a conference website. I can semi-tactfully criticize while simultaneously praising without all the necessary political correctness.
So, positives before negatives. Overall, I think the conference did a decent job in picking their teams. If you haven't seen them yet, then click here. The conference made the right choice on Player of the Year, Newcomer, Setter and Libero of the Year. Plus, though I would have preferred Chisum for Coach of the Year, its hard to argue with McRoberts from UCA repeating. I mean, they didn't lose a conference game.
With one huge exception, the first team All-SLC selections are very well done. But, there are a few basically indefensible choices on the SLC lists. The second team list released by the conference is a mess and basically, the conference totally blew the choice for Freshman of the Year. Shocked is not the word here. Stupid is.
I'm sure Wendy Krell from Lamar is a fine young lady and she certainly is a good volleyball player and I look forward to watching her Friday. She is not the best freshman in this conference. She is not one of the best three freshman in this league. She is not the best freshman on her own TEAM. Plain and simple: Krell was a terrible choice for this honor.
Let's look at two players, shall we:
Player 1: 182 kills, 1.92 kills per set, .300 attack percentage in 420 attacks, 71 blocks, 0.75 blocks per set.
Player 2: 177 kills, 1.92 kills per set, .262 attack percentage in 390 attacks, 114 blocks, 1.24 blocks per set.
So, pick one. The conference picked Player 1 as the Freshman of the Year and 2nd team All-SLC. OK. Well, then certainly Player 2 will get an honor, right? An Honorable Mention? Nope. Nothing. Zero. Player 1 is Krell. Player 2 is her teammate and Freshman, Jayme Bazile.
How can you defend Player 1 over Player 2? How? Oh, I see...its that .300 attack percentage, right. I mean, that nice round number that starts with a three. Look. THINK. Maybe, actually COMPUTE. You wanna know what the difference is between hitting .300 and .262 in 420 attacks? A difference of kills minus errors that equals 16. Yes, I calculated it. It's not hard. So, for instance, if Krell makes just eight more errors than she did, and Bazile tallies eight more kills than she did in their same number of attacks, then they have the same attack percentage for the entire season. I implore you: Re-read that statement carefully.
You gonna give the highest freshman honor to Krell and ignore Bazile completely over a grand total of 16 attacks across 27 matches? Oh, yeah.. we haven't even looked at the blocks! Geez, Bazile blocked 43 balls more than Krell. Plus, Bazile LED THE CONFERENCE IN BLOCKS PER SET. You think 43 blocks more isn't significant? Consider that the leading blocker for Southeastern La. had 49 blocks for the year! And she gets nothing? Whatever. That's not defensible. Any SID or coach who voted for Krell and not Bazile simply doesn't understand the statistics that are generated in their sport.
Of course, the real snub was our own Madison Hanlan. The conference did the right thing in giving Curl the Libero of the Year and sticking another libero on the first team. Just read my post below for my argument for doing exactly that. Just one problem. They put the wrong libero on the first team.
Hanlan and Kaylee Hawkins each dug balls at a rate of 4.28 per set. So, how do you separate out how to honor each of them? Only, libero of the year Cristin Curl had a higher rate. Certainly, two liberos putting up equal dig rates ought to be close in terms of their recognition. Nope. The conference blows it again by naming Hawkins on the first team and Hanlan as honorable mention. That gap in recognition is not equal to their gap in contributions. I think what happened here is that people look too heavily at conference only stats and weekly conference honors. Hawkins led the SLC in digs per set by quite a large margin in conference-only games and Hawkins won defensive player of the week one more time than Hanlan. But, I think you have to look at the entire picture. Hanlan had more aces than Hawkins and had a slightly better serve receive percentage than Hawkins - and serve receive is an important dimension of a libero. So, all in all, I just don't see the argument that these two liberos should be so far apart in recognition?
But, Greg...isn't that what YOU did? You named Hanlan 1st team and Hawkins third... so aren't you being hypocritical? No, I'm not. Because I actually selected TEAMS. I honored 14 girls between the first and second teams combined. So, me saying Hanlan deserves first team and Hawkins third doesn't separate them much. The conference put 12 girls on the first team alone and just one libero. If there is some rule that only one libero can be named to first team while simultaneously allowing 12 players on the first team, then that rule is goofy. If you are going to put 12 girls on the first team then what would be wrong with two liberos on the first team? They put two setters on the first team, right? My point: At least put two of Hawkins, Hanlan and Curl on the first team, so that the other can be on the second team. Hanlan getting snubbed all the way down to Honorable Mention just isn't right.
Plus, I'm gonna beat this drum one more time. Hanlan, Hawkins, Bazile and McNeese's Priscilla Massengale are all better choices for Freshman of the Year than Wendy Krell. To be honest, I see very little difference between the contributions of Krell and Nicholls State freshman Jennifer Brandt. I mean, Brandt led her team in kills with almost 100 more than Krell and she killed more than half a ball more than Krell per set. She didn't post many blocks and she hit .206 compared to Krell's .300, but please people...get off of that.300 thing. Hitting .300 in just 420 attacks is meaningless. That's just not that many attacks, so .300 isn't that impressive in that few swings. What' impressive is Anna Ferguson hitting .283 in 1069 attacks and Chloe Smith hitting .280 in 1121 attacks. But hitting .300 in just 420 attacks? It just isn't that big of a deal, because the chance Krell could maintain that over 700 more attacks is really low. Voters clearly don't understand rate statistics and therefore they inflate their value. Remember, the difference between .300 and .262 is 16 swings over the season if you are going to attack only 420 times. That's meaningless.
But finally....and this is ridiculous...what do the voters have against McNeese? Chanel Tyler, Nicole Bowden and Sarah Cartie all left off the entire list of honors? You can't be serious? One of them left off? Well, maybe...but all three?
Meengs of Lamar gets first team with 857 assists, 8.74 per set and 216 digs, but Cartie gets nothing with over 1000 assists and 9.42 per set with 270 digs? That makes no sense at all. Oh, wait....Meengs hit .293 in 444 attacks- among the conference leaders. Cartie hit .251 in 263 attacks. Do I need to do the math again to show you how insignificant those differences are?
Bowden blocks 112 balls - third most in the entire conference and she gets nothing? Bowden in every way eclipsed UTA's Emily Shearin. I mean, in every measurable way, Bowden did better and yet Shearin gets 2nd team and Bowden nothing? Again, that decision is just not defensible. Do you realize that two of the top four leading blockers per set in the entire conference didn't even get an honor? Dang. Why call the position middle BLOCKER, if you're not going to honor people for blocking the friggin' ball?
But leaving Chanel Tyler off the entire list? Pure insanity. Here is what is absolutely stupid: Tara Frantz is a first teamer, while Chanel Tyler is left off the list. Frantz, by far was the worst pick on the first team.. she didn't come close to deserving that. She's the only first rounder named by the conference that I look at and think something horribly went wrong.
Frantz: 220 kills in 598 attacks, 2.75 kills per set, .179 attack %, 40 blocks, only 27 digs and actually served the ball nine times all year (zero aces).
Tyler: 340 kills in 1010 attacks, 2.96 kills per set, .185 attack%, 31 blocks, 323 digs and 32 service aces.
I'm just gonna end it right there. How anyone could look at Tara Frantz and see a first team selection and then look at Chanel Tyler and see someone who doesn't deserve an honor just isn't caring about their responsibility of voting on teams like this. Its just that simple.
Labels: Maddie Hanlan, McNeese, Stats 101
1st Annual SFAVolleyBlog.net All-Conference Teams
Well, now this is gonna be fun. This is what you think it is...my picks for all-Southland Conference. The rules for me are simple. I want these to actually be teams..not 14 players on first team and eight on second team and all that. The Southland Conference voting is done by Sports Information Directors and coaches and they have their own criteria. Mine are simple. There are seven starters each night for any particular team, so we will pick seven girls per team. Each team is required to have a a setter, libero, two middle blockers, two hitters and a seventh player that can either be MB or OH. Now that you know my rules, let's get straight to it. Comments follow the lists.
1st Team All-SLC
S Robyn Smith, Central Arkansas
L Madison Hanlan, SFA
OH Chloe Smith, Central Arkansas
OH Carli Kolbe, Sam Houston
MB Ashley Bailey, SFA
MB Anna Ferguson, Sam Houston
OH Jessica Weynand, Texas State
2nd Team All-SLC
S Sarah Cartie, McNeese
L Cristin Curl, Central Arkansas
OH Chanel Tyler, McNeese
OH Yelena Enwere, Northwestern State
MB MC Bottles, SFA
MB Nicole Bowden, McNeese
OH Kendra Rowland, UTSA
3rd Team All-SLC
S Adrianne Meengs, Lamar
L Kaylee Hawkins, Sam Houston
OH Emma Ridley, Texas A&M - Corpus Christi
OH/MB Lauren Holdorff, Lamar
MB Amber Calhoun, Texas State
MB Evaree Franklin, Central Arkansas
MB Jayme Bazile, Lamar
Setter of the Year: Robyn Smith, Central Arkansas
Libero of the Year: Cristin Curl, Central Arkansas
Newcomer of the Year: Emma Ridley, TAMUCC
Freshman of the Year: Madison Hanlan, SFA
Coach of the Year: Karen Chisum, Texas State
Player of the Year: Chloe Smith, Central Arkansas
Just Missed:
S Michelle Miller, Sam Houston
L Danielle Daigle, Nicholls State
OH Jessica Hays, Central Arkansas
MB Briana Mason, UTSA
So, how do I justify giving Hanlan first team All-SLC, but not libero of the Year? Well, to be honest, I had a really hard time deciding between Hanlan and Curl. In the end, I felt like Hanlan's additional attributes such as her good serve and higher reception percentage made her the better overall player. But, Curl's significantly higher digs per set per her as the top at that position. I went with the better overall player for 1st team, but better specifically in terms of the statistics that defines liberos when it came to the award. Plus, I decided on Hanlan for Rookie of the Year, so that gives her more total accolade anyway. The only person that could knock Hanlan off of Freshman of the Year would be Bazile at Lamar, but I think Maddie's made her case.
What really stands out to me is how balanced Texas State as a team is. Weynand was my hardest choice for 1st team...the others are locks, I believe. Chanel Tyler, or our own MC Bottles almost pushes her out in my mind. The teams announced by the conference may very well include both of those on the 1st team since they usually balloon those beyond seven players. But, for as good as Texas State is, they don't have many players worthy of individual honor - which points to depth, and I believe coaching. Despite our rivalry with Texas State, I believe Karen Chisum deserves the credit for organizing this depth and getting that group of players to truly play as a team. In my mind, they are the definitive favorite this weekend. That being said, any number of teams could trip them up including us. It just won't be Southeastern Louisiana, who is foolish to book any more than one night worth of a hotel.
It would not be an upset in my mind if Anna Ferguson won Player of the Year. I would not argue with that. Compare Smith and Ferguson:
Smith: 442 kills, 4.46 kills/set, .280 attack %, 59 blocks, .60 bl/s
Ferguson: 434 kills, 3.50 kills/set, .283 attack %, 120 blocks, .97 bl/s
So, do the blocks make up for the roughly one kill per set less? That's twice as many blocks as Smith you're looking at there. Of course, she's an MB and Smith hits from the right side. Still, I think Chloe Smith is the best player in this league this year, Ferguson second and Ashley Bailey third.
How is McNeese bad? I think all three of their second team picks are more than defensible. Nicole Bowden had a great year (112 blocks, 1.o1 blocks per set, 242 kills and 33 aces), Cartie is so solid and Tyler could have made my first team. Then, there is Priscilla Massengale, who dropped off a little at the end of the year, but still had a solid freshman season at over three kills per set. How are they terrible? How did they not make the tournament?
For those that want Daigle in place of Hawkins...fine. That was a toss up to me. I saw Hawkins make some unbelievable digs early in the year when they played UL-Lafayette and I wasn't overly impressed with Daigle when she came to Nacogdoches, so I let my own eyes rather than stats break the tie.
The four girls that just missed were my best of the rest picks. I seriously considered them for third team. I will also tell you that I stared hard at the following players: Priscilla Massengale (McNeese), Jennifer Brandt and Jasmine Harris (Nicholls), Alex Greer (SELA), Mo Middleton and AJ Watlington (Texas State), Whitney Walls (UTSA), Tara Frantz and Emily Shearin (UTA), Jessica Korda (TAMUCC) and Arielle Daron (SFA). So, if a girls name is not in this article, I don't think they have a case for the top-three teams at all.
Finally, I want to end where I began with the comments. If you could just lift everything in 30+ posts I've written this year about Maddie Hanlan and put it all in chronological order, you'd realize that at the beginning of the year I was quite skeptical about how sticking a freshman at libero was going to work out. But, when its all said and done.. what more can you say about her? She racked up some serious stats. Midway through the year, I really thought Bazile or Massengale was your best Freshman. But honestly, after reviewing the numbers and thinking back over things I've seen, I don't really think its close: Hanlan is the best. She flies under the radar a bit because she really isn't a flashy player. She's just....there. She's just where the ball is hit. It's not an upset if she gets first team-SLC, Libero AND Freshman of the Year. So, I know it took me an entire year, but the numbers don't lie: Maddie Hanlan can play.
Picking teams like this always creates a wave of emotion and any two people rarely completely agree. Then of course, I do not actually SEE all these teams equally, nor am I paid to follow college volleyball. As I said at the mid-point in the year. I do study and I do read around the conference daily. So, I feel like I've picked the folks that are most deserving. I'm a stats guy, but what was picked above wasn't based solely on numbers. Its also based on observation, conversation, reading and listening at just the right times.
Got a different opinion that me? Snub your favorite player? Let me know what you think. See you in San Antonio! Axe' Em 'Jacks!!
Labels: Ashley Bailey, Maddie Hanlan, MC Bottles
Pairings for Southland Conference Tournament
Here is the schedule for the upcoming 2009 Southland Conference Volleyball Tournament hosted by UTSA and played at the Convocation Center
11 AM: (8) Southeastern La.(9-18, 5-11 SLC) vs. (1) Texas State (19-12, 13-3, SLC)
1:30 PM: (5) UT-Arlington (12-16, 8-8 SLC) vs. (4) Lamar (14-13, 9-7 SLC)
4:00 PM (7) Nicholls State (12-18, 6-10 SLC) vs. (2) Sam Houston State (20-13, 12-4 SLC)
6:30 PM (6) UTSA (12-18, 7-9 SLC) vs. (3) SFA (22-12, 11-5 SLC)
1 PM: Winner of Southeastern La./Texas State vs. Winner of UT-Arlington/Lamar
4 PM: Winner of Nicholls State/Sam Houston State vs. Winner of UTSA/SFA
2 PM: Championship Match
Later in the week, I will breakdown our first round opponent UTSA, so check back in a few days to read up on what they bring to the table. Earlier in the year, SFA defeated UTSA 3-2 in Nacogdoches. Make sure and check out www.southland.org as well as www.sfajacks.com leading up to the tournament for additional information. There are a lot of options available to you as a fan including free live streams of the games. The championship will be televised by the SLC TV Network. Check www.southland.org for affiliates in your area.
Once I get to San Antonio, I will post running entries each day all during the day so you can connect with www.sfavolleyblog.net while following all the action. Ben Rikard and I will be court side for all SFA matches and as always, we will keep you informed.
Consider making the trip to San Antonio! We need some purple in the stands Friday night since we will be playing the host team. If you can't be in the Alamo city, then make sure and follow the tournament both here and at the websites listed above.
Labels: SLC Tournament, UTSA
Conference Opponent Preview: Nicholls State
Saturday afternoon the regular season ends around the Southland Conference and the Colonels from Nicholls State will be in town. The match won't affect SFA's seeding in next weekend's Southland Conference Tournament as the #3 seed has already been assigned our way. This match serves only to keep some good vibes going and to get payback on Nicholls for their five set victory in Thibodaux in early October.
A victory will also secure my status as prognosticator extraordinaire since I stated we'd finish at 22-12 back on August 24. Before I get into breaking down the club you'll see Saturday, let me say that I am looking past them again. I am already focused on next weekend in San Antonio. I'll admit I am anxious to bolt out of here next Thursday and see what damage we can cause at the tournament. Last season, I had a court side seat as, of course, I did the PA for the tourney which was here in Nacogdoches. This year, I'll be fortunate to have court access again, but I intend to enjoy things more as a fan (and blogger) as opposed to actually "working". Of course, it's highly debatable that doing PA is "work". Let me know if you are headed to San Antonio next week...maybe we can catch some good Mexican food and talk volleyball.
So, Nicholls. This is a team that is probably going to squeak its way into the "dance" in San Antonio, but their prize will more than likely be to play Texas State in the first round on the side of the bracket opposite us. That ain't gonna go well. Here is what they brought into 2009 from 2008:
Edit: Actually, last night's victory over McNeese assures Nicholls at least the #7 seed in next week's tournament. A UTA victory over UTSA today or a Nicholls win vs. SFA would propel them to #6...and hence play us in the first round.
Returning for 2009:
Kills 68% (6th in SLC)
Blocks: 68% (T6th in SLC)
So, they returned/lost about the median amount of stats when considering all teams in the conference. They seemed to have replaced it and possibly slightly improved a bit, but not in a major way. By way of example, compare last year to what they've done coming into Saturday:
2008 Record: 9-18, 6-10 SLC, Lost to Lamar in 1st round of SLC Tourney
2009 Record: 12-17, 6-9 SLC
You can see that their overall record and conference performance in 2009 won't be substantially different from last year.
Overall though, I think you can point to a few more impressive matches this year as opposed to last. During 2008, they really didn't have a single impressive win among those nine that they put up - with a possible exception being a conference win in San Antonio. This year, in addition to beating us in five sets, they have swept McNeese and posted a 3-1 win over UTSA. Maybe that's a tad more impressive than last year.
Still, this team can't play on the road, with their only three road victories this year being at Prairie View A&M, Northwestern State and tonight in Lake Charles. That - among other things - is why we shouldn't expect a repeat of what happened to SFA earlier this year in Louisiana.
Key Losses: Nicholls two top attackers from 2008 were Manieka Golden and Rachel Yezak and they are both back this year. The squad lost their next two best offensive players in Chelsey Adams and Mallory McInnis. Adams was third in kills and fourth in kills per set. She was also the teams best blocker. McInnis finished fourth in 2008 in kills and third in kills per set. So, these two were integral, but not the main go-to's on offense. A few freshman recruits have basically filled these statistical holes. Any gains the Colonels have made in 2009 represent mainly veterans taking a few steps forward and the following freshman filling in places left behind by seniors.
Key Additions: Freshman Jasmine Harris leads the team in blocks with an impressive tally of 92. That's good enough for 0.88 blocks per set, which is more than respectable. Main go-to Golden hasn't been able to play in all matches this year, which has allowed fellow newcomer Jennifer Brandt to lead the team in kills. She is second only to Golden in kills per set. She's hit a decent .208 as a freshman and should be a central figure in the Colonels plans going forward in 2010. A third freshman, Jessica Addicks, hasn't been as central to the teams' meager success as Harris and Brandt, but she has managed to hit .265 in almost 300 attacks and is also 4th on the team in blocks. It will be interesting to see if these three coupled with young Yezak form the nucleus of an improving team going forward. Team leaders Golden and setter Amy Whitehead are gone after this year, so they definitely have two big holes to fill if they are going to move forward rather than tread water at .500 or just below in the league.
Who to Watch: The issue with Nicholls may be more "what" to watch, than who. From talking with coaches, it appears Nicholls plays a fast, disruptive style of offensive volleyball centered around their setter Whitehead. Many are complementary of Chris Laird as head coach and I am eager to see this "offensive system" that I keep hearing about. Of course, an offensive system is really only effective if you have the talent to execute it, no matter how different it appears to opposing defenses.
So, who should I direct your attention to? Last year, at our place, we hit a ridiculous .371 against Nicholls and they swung only .089. It was a complete mismatch. Nicholls scored 25 points in the final two sets compared to our 50. Golden was the only player with more than four kills for Nicholls that night. I'll direct your attention to Golden then, along with Rachel Spreen. I'll pick that pair of Colonels for their serve. Spreen and Golden are currently one-two in the conference in aces per set. If you like serving, you may see some good ones from those two. Golden was also sixth in the SLC in aces per set last year, so she's been consistently good at starting play.
Possible Lineup: Nicholls regularly gets in nine girls through a full rotation set and it appears that certain starters are based on opposing match-ups with the knowledge that two of the girls not starting will rotate in early. Their four consistent starters are Golden and Yezak on the outside, Whitehead at setter and Danielle Daigle at libero. The three freshman mentioned above (Harris, Brandt, Addicks) combine with middle blocker Amy Beshir and Spreen to fill in the other spots. There has been no consistent starting lineup of late. For what it's worth, tonight in Lake Charles they started the four regulars and the three freshmen.
Final Thoughts: Should be nothing to see here. Move on. I wouldn't be surprised if Nicholls managed to play a competitive set or two, possibly stretching us to four sets, but that's the extent of it. They will be tired from playing in Lake Charles tonight and they won't have much time to rest with a 3:30 start on Saturday. Southesastern Louisiana didn't stress us in the least yesterday and we didn't play today, so physically, we should have the advantage. Given that we have more total talent, we are looking at 3-0 or possibly 3-1 if Nicholls puts up a fight. If I'm wrong, then I'll print an apology to the Colonels for looking past them twice.
Labels: Nicholls State
Get Ready For a Shootout in San Antonio
All right, we've got one week left in the SLC Volleyball regular season and nothing is really more clear than it was a month ago. Teams at both the top and bottom of the standings have had some odd things happen to them in the last week. Sam Houston's ride to the #1 seed (thanks to UCA's lack of eligibility) has hit the breaks the past couple of days. While we were over fending off bats at Northwestern State, SHSU dropped three straight sets to UT-Arlington. Then, tonight, the Bearkats went down in flames in straight sets again to Texas State. That evens up Sam Houston and Texas State's conference records at 11-3.
Many folks have pointed out that Sam Houston revolves around its two stars: Anna Ferguson and Karli Colbe. While we were live blogging from Huntsville a couple weeks ago we sure did type their names a lot. Now, Colbe did go cold today against Texas State and amazingly...Ferguson had 10 kills, Colbe had five and then NO ONE ELSE had more than two! So, yes, it can be said... as the Annacarli goes, so goes the Bearkats. But, you know, I think its something else. I actually think Michelle Miller and Camille Alfaro give them a more well-rounded attack than others believe. I think Sam's stalling out in recent days can be attributed to seven conference matches going to five sets including four straight before their straight set losses to UTA and Texas State. Could it be their reliance on two players PLUS fatigue?
Texas State finishes at UTSA and at TAMUCC. Sam Houston also finishes on the road. They have to play UCA and Northwestern. I think when you look at that, your first reaction is that Texas State is headed for the #1 seed after all. Wow. It sure didn't look like it at times, but gosh dog it...they always do this. That team always seems to get things together come tourney time. There is no question they are the hottest team in the conference right now (again, UCA is the outlier...they are undefeated, but won't be playing in SA). Texas State has won 8 straight in the league and could very well make it 10 before they meet up with seed #8 in two weeks.
So, UTA bounces Sam on Thursday and then does what for an encore? Rips Lamar to shreds this afternoon. Now, that's kind of scary. In a year like we are having in the conference this year, teams like UTA have to be licking their chops. If a top seed were to fall on the first day of the tournament, then I wouldn't rule out something crazy like a 6, 7, or 8 seed playing the the championship.
Then, to add to the fun, TAMUCC decides it really doesn't want to go 0-fer the conference and so they go out and sweep Southeastern La. and Nicholls on the road! Yes, the Islanders beat the Colonels in straight sets in the same gym where we lost. This is just nuts.
What all this madness should - and I accent - should do is solidify SFA as the third seed in the tournament. Let's look at the current standings as of RIGHT NOW and what games these teams have remaining:
Seed #1/2 (Tie): Texas State 11-3 (@ UTSA, @ TAMUCC)
Seed #1/2 (Tie): SHSU 11-3 (@UCA, @NWLA)
Seed #3: SFA 8-5 (vs. McNeese, SELA and Nicholls)
Seed #4: Lamar 8-6 (@NWLA, @UCA)
Seed #5: UTA 7-7 (@TAMUCC, @UTSA)
Seed #6: UTSA 6-8 (vs. Texas State and UTA)
Seed #7: McNeese 5-8 (@SFA and vs. SELA and Nicholls)
Seed #8 Nicholls 5-9 (@McNeese and @SFA)
SELA is still alive - they are 4-10 in conference and they have the same finishing schedule as Nicholls. While, I am at it.. is there any more hot-n-cold team than McNeese? I don't know what to make of them any more. They lost to Northwestern today in the bat cave.
When I look at those seeds, we seemed destined for #3. Even if we were to slip once this week (please, no slip ups...just win out), our insurance is that UCA is favored to beat Lamar. We have the same number of wins as them, own the tiebreaker and have one more game than they do. If we don't stay ahead of them, then well... we won't have much reason for optimism in two weeks. We just need to win two of our last three to get the three seed...and again, I think we should win all three.
Here is what is interesting: The winner of the 3/6 game plays the winner of the 2/7 game in the second round. Looking at those schedules, I am thinking SHSU might wind up with the two seed. That might be a nice path for us to get to the championship. Formula: Take care of business with three wins here in the last week. Sam rides into the tournament lukewarm having lost to UTA, Texas State and UCA in recent days and we get them back for what happened in our place this time last year. Sound about right? Well..hold on..keep reading.
Now, the astute reader is thinking: "Greg, you sound like you are making a prediction. And do you remember what happened the last time you reminded us of one of our predictions... you know 500=TAMUCC, well...we lost to Nicholls and there went your grand plan."
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know. But, hey I wasn't the only one that looked past Nicholls, right? Plus, my role for this club is to blog and yell girls' names, so what do I really matter? While we are on the subject, you'll recall that in addition to predicting 500 would come at TAMUCC, my guess for our record going into the tourney was 22-12, 12-4 SLC. Well, if we win the the three games this week against our East foes, then we will be....drum roll please....22-12 overall and 11-5 in the SLC. Off by one game in conference. Damn Nicholls.
If you ask me right now to look at those schedules and pick seeds, then I say nothing changes. I'll predict the seeds are exactly as they are now. Which is dangerous. Because if that's the way it falls, then we would match up against host UTSA in the first round. Playing the host in the first round makes me a tad uneasy. But, if our side of the bracket is SFA/UTSA and SHSU/McNeese, then that's not a bad bracket to have in order to get to the final.
Of course, this is all speculation, some of which may be worthless. The bottom line is: For us to really have a shot at the final, we need a greater level of consistency. As topsy-turvy as the conference is this year, there are still plenty of reasons to be excited about the prospects of competing for the tournament championship. But, we have shown a tendency to fall into funks at times. Sometimes these funks last for matches at a time (see Texas State), and sometimes just sets at a time (see set 3 at NWLA), or sometimes just at critical times for a few points at a time (see final points of Set 4 at SHSU).
A funk at the wrong time in San Antonio means checking out of the hotel a day or two earlier than what is desired. I personally don't want to drive five hours just to turn around the next day and come home. How 'bout ya'll? The best thing to do? Dispose of McNeese, SELA and Nicholls by playing consistently good volleyball this week so we can travel to San Antonio on a high.
I'll see all of you in Johnson Coliseum on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday!
Live Chat From Natchitoches - Thursday 11/5 at 7:00
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