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text:
Medizinethnologie
Körper, Gesundheit und Heilung in einer globalisierten Welt
Reviews & Statements
Witnessing Corona
What's in a name? Diagnostic uncertainty and moral experience in a mental hospital in the Tanga region of Tanzania
Hide Press Release (2 Less Words)
Florin Cristea
By any other name would smell as sweet"
William Shakespeare, "Romeo and Juliet", act 2, scene 2
"(…) But the label 'schizophrenia' is often toxic for those who acquire it. It creates not only what Erving Goffman called a 'spoiled identity,' but an identity framed in opposition to the non-labeled social world."
Tanya Luhrmann, "'I'm Schizophrenic!' How Diagnosis Can Change Identity in the United States." (2017)
In 1962, the first independent government of Tanzania inherited from previous German and British colonial governments a mental healthcare system in shambles that relied heavily on traditional healers, with few clinics and some missionary health centers (Kilonzo and Simmons 1998). To compensate for the scarcity of medical resources, the newly formed socialist government of Tanzania decentralized medical mental health services during the 1960s and the 1970s. The system relied mostly on the assistance of psychiatric nurses and expanded the reach of psychiatric care. Although health outreach was thus significantly improved, by the end of the 1990s, only 20% of those suffering from mental disorders had access to the newly formed ecologies of care (Schulsinger and Jablensky 1991). Up until now, most psychiatric care in the country is handled by nurses and clinical officers.[1] The only specialized psychiatric hospitals are in Dodoma (Mirembe), Dar es Salaam (Muhimbili University Hospital), and the Usambara Mountains (Lutindi Mental Hospital). The small workforce trained in mental health and rehabilitation is, therefore, predominantly concentrated in two major cities, leaving rural areas, to a large extent, neglected.
Over the past century, the Lutindi Mental Hospital (Lutindi),[2] located in the isolation of the Tanzanian Usambara Mountains, developed into one of the psychiatric institutions of the highest standards in the country. Today, it is managed by the North Eastern Diocese of Tanzania, which forms part of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Tanzania (ELCT). At the time of my research, four psychiatric nurses, one clinical officer, and around 60 non-medically trained employees from the nearby villages managed around 100 "patients" (on an average 80 male and 20 female) a day.[3] Because of its reputation, the hospital drew people from all over Tanzania and neighboring countries. However, due to the high cost of admission, the hospital's services were more accessible to the urban-dwelling middle classes, mostly from Dar es Salaam, Arusha, and Moshi. The majority were Christian and around five to ten percent were Muslim.
This blog piece examines the lived space[4] of Lutindi, where I conducted three months of ethnographic research (November 2017–January 2018) for my MA thesis. I gained access to the hospital through an NGO that handles volunteering and internship placements across the country, among others at Lutindi. Either clinicians or I informed research participants that I was an MA student conducting research on mental health and illness. During the admission and evaluation interviews I was allowed to attend, or during individual interviews, I asked for verbal consent before putting any of my questions. Drawing on participant observation and semi-structured interviews I investigated the role of the hospital in disseminating biomedical models of mental illness and health within the pluralistic medical landscape of Tanzania.
I will show that while biomedical and religious insights about living a "good life" governed the hospital's moral code, the patients managed to circumvent this code as a result of a process that I term "diagnostic uncertainty," an apparent lack of focus in the diagnostic procedure. This process ensued a moral double bind: the hospital promised the possibility of a better, healthier life if patients adhered to its moral code, while at the same time remaining mute about the patients' needs in the moral worlds outside the hospital. Nevertheless, I will argue, maintaining uncertainty through diagnosis during hospitalization also kept patients connected to these external moral worlds.
Main entrance to the hospital. Copyright: Florin Cristea
Lutindi biomedical and religious care
The Bethel Mission from Germany founded Lutindi in 1906. Previously a foster home for children whose parents had been sold into slavery, the missionaries changed it into a psychiatric institution after discussing the lack of such institutions in the country with representatives of the German colonial government in Berlin (Diefenbacher 1985). The Mission remained in charge of the hospital for most of the 20th century. During my time in Lutindi, it still oversaw its activities in collaboration with the North East Diocese of Tanzania, which further guaranteed close ties to Sebastian Kolowa Memorial University in Lushoto, a private university founded by the ELCT. According to Lutindi clinicians, the university was the primary provider of clinical officers trained in mental health in East Tanzania's Tanga district, thanks to its bachelor's program in mental health and rehabilitation, one of the few such higher-education programs in the country. Psychiatric care in the Tanga region, where Lutindi is located, was, therefore, closely intertwined with religious foundations and the history of Christian medical missions. This is not an uncommon occurrence in Tanzania, where religious and private institutions filled the vacuum created by the state's inability to provide medical care for its citizens, from colonial times until today (Dilger 2014).
Picture taken on the Sebastian Kolowa University Campus. The sign reads: "The fear of the Lord is the beginning of knowledge. Prov. 17." Copyright: Florin Cristea
As a result, the expansion of biomedical psychiatry in the Tanga region brought with it not only biomedical knowledge, but also a system of moral values. The connections Lutindi established to the surrounding villages provides a case in point. When the first foster children from Lutindi came of age in the 1900s, they established some of the settlements surrounding the hospital, namely, Bethania, Kana, and Nazareth. Lutindi's connection to the surrounding villages expanded thanks to its church, its dispensary and primary school, and the employment possibilities offered by the hospital. This network did not only link Lutindi to the communities, but also the community members amongst themselves. "We are all relatives here," I was once jokingly told by Edward, a young man working in the hospital's workshop who came from Kunga, a village about half an hour away from the hospital.
In these nearby villages, when I asked outpatients diagnosed with schizophrenia, their families, and neighbors what they believed were the sources of mental illnesses, their answers were consistent with the etiological accounts given by Lutindi practitioners and employees. Most common was the argument that substance abuse (of alcohol, cannabis [bangi], and heroin—the main addictions treated in the hospital), along with heredity [kurithi] (understood as transmitted by blood) and stress, were the main causes for mental illness. Mentions of phenomena such as witchcraft, a frequent association made by Lutindi patients, was often met with contempt. "You cannot believe in Jesus Christ and also believe in witches. It is not Christian," reasoned Ebeneza, a young male inhabitant of Bethania.
As the life of the hospital is closely intertwined with that of the villagers, a shared moral tissue has been generated over the past century. Due to these connections, the hospital does not only influence the moral values of the surrounding communities, but, especially through its employees, it is also influenced by them. And the shared values do not only come to light in terms of a biomedical understanding of mental health and illness, but also in the role religious life plays in illness outcomes. Thus, improved mental health was understood to be not just a result of psychiatric treatment but also of religious practice. Lutindi staff encouraged Christian patients to maintain their mental stability by not only following treatment, getting sufficient rest, and avoiding smoking and drinking, but also by going to church and leading a moral life in harmony with biblical teachings, as mentored every day during hospitalization at the six AM morning prayer. Thus, patients were expected to acquire explicit moral markers during hospitalization.[5]
Patients were also expected to acquire implicit moral markers such as discarding previously held beliefs and what practitioners framed as "bad knowledge" in terms of illness etiology. I call these markers "implicit" because they rarely surfaced in verbal communication. If patients brought up phenomena involving associations with witchcraft [uchawi], devils [mashetani], or possession by jinns [majini], they were regarded as "still psychotic" in the medical files. Implicit markers surfaced, however, as patients struggled to find a key narrative for a quicker discharge. As a result, they replaced folk etiologies by more psychosomatic explanations. The more time patients spent in the hospital, the more they tended to replace, uchawi [witchcraft] with msongo wa mawazo [depression or stress], changanikiwa [confusion], or ugonjwa wa akili [mental illness]. When I discussed these dynamics with the lead-clinician, he was hardly surprised:
80% of Tanzanians are not using modern health services. A lot of people live in villages without dispensaries. When they have a health problem, they go to the traditional healer. (…) We have a different culture, different traditions. Most African people believe in uchawi and witches, or demons, or taboos. It is according to their customs. And many times, a traditional healer is closer to the community. If you want to come to me, you need papers. You need references. To visit a healer, you just knock on their door. The first opinion they get is that of a traditional healer.
Accordingly, due to these initial encounters, and because traditional healers are easily accessible in the village and close to the community, patients continue to invoke their explanations for illness during hospitalization at Lutindi and after.[6] Consider, however, the experience of Godlisten, a patient in his late fifties from Dar es Salaam who was diagnosed with schizophrenia and had been in and out of hospitals for more than twenty years:
They [the doctors] help a little. I could not get good sleep. I was using medicine from the hospital for the sleeping problem. But the problem of dreaming, of bad magic, was more powerful than the medicine. Local medicine [from the traditional healers] helped more with the bad dreams.
When the symptoms were not clearly related to the body, biomedical treatments were of little help for Godlisten. Despite repeated and prolonged interactions with Lutindi and other biomedical institutions, such explanatory tensions were not uncommon. In what follows, I propose an explanation for these tensions.
Medical pluralism in Lutindi Mental Hospital
Due to my low proficiency in Kiswahili, it was challenging, especially during the first few weeks of my fieldwork, to conduct detailed interviews with patients who did not speak English. Therefore, with the consent and assistance of Lutindi clinicians, I asked two questions at the end of clinical evaluation and admission interviews. I usually inquired about the name and causes of the illness. This led to discussions that were at times marked by disagreement. Clinicians, for example, preferred the term sonona [approx. grief] over the term msongo [depression or stress] used by patients and their families. Most of the time, however, my questions were met with a shrug. For example, when a man came to admit his wife, instead of answering me, he redirected my question to Dr. Mkiwa, one of the senior clinicians. The doctor similarly suggested sonona, but then had to explain the unconvincing diagnosis to a puzzled husband as a "pain in the heart" or "sadness."
Nonetheless, I witnessed few such exchanges of the diagnosis being discussed with relatives or patients, and, most of the time, they were triggered by my questions. The answers I got during clinical evaluation interviews mostly related to biomedical models. However, in their conversations with me, many patients associated their affliction with non-biomedical etiologies. A few exceptions notwithstanding, they had all visited traditional healers [waganga wa kienyeji or waganga wa asili], healers [waganga], or shehe (the title given to Qur'anic teachers) and argued that their suffering was caused by witchcraft [uchawi] or, if they were Muslim, possession by jinns (malevolent spirits). Often, mental illness was not a condition dissociated from these explanations, but a consequence of them.
Interior yard of Lutindi hospital. The patients who showed signs of stability were allowed to leave the wards and walk around on the hospital's premises. Copyright: Florin Cristea
In contrast to practitioners, patients used etiologies that were dependent on the different institutions they encountered during their diverse therapeutic paths that ultimately led into the hospital. The reasons why someone would have decided to use witchcraft or enable an act of possession against a person, ranged from envy [wivu], disputes over properties, through to revenge for what a person (or his ancestors) may have done to cause another person's harm. Patients often considered the symptoms that clinicians saw as proof for a mental disorder a reflection of someone's malevolence and ascribed them to failed social relationships.
How to account for this plethora of explanations that circumvented Lutindi's moral code? Exploring diagnostic practices in the crowded city of Lucknow, India, Amy June Sousa (2017), calls attention to the "lack of diagnostic focus" in the communication between psychiatrists and patients. As a result of an insufficient number of psychiatrists and limited time they could allocate for examinations, patients were not told the name or the consequences of their disease. Sousa defines this phenomenon as "diagnostic neutrality" (ibid., 43) and argues that because of it, the biomedical model used by the medical professionals in her study did not interfere with other explanatory models (ibid., 55). Andrea Buhl (2017) identified a similar phenomenon in a cancer ward in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, describing doctors' "non-disclosure" as a way of maintaining patients' hope in the face of a potentially terminal disease.
I argue in this piece that both "diagnostic neutrality" and "non-disclosure" are one-sided, attending only to the attitude of practitioners. These approaches neglect that practitioners can withhold information only as long as patients and their relatives do not inquire about the illness. A more inclusive concept I propose instead is that of "diagnostic uncertainty." In biomedicine, diagnostic uncertainty is commonly understood as the "subjective perception of an inability to provide an accurate explanation of the patient's health problem" (Bhise et al. 2018, 103). Nonetheless, this latter definition is also conceptualized solely around the experience of practitioners. In the following section, I will suggest a conceptualization that is more inclusive towards patients and their relatives.
Constructing diagnostic uncertainty
In his seminal work about the importance of knowing and not-knowing in medical cultures, Murray Last argued that under certain conditions not-knowing and not-caring-to-know can be part of institutionalized social processes (1981, 387). These processes need to be anchored in medical constellations in which multiple medical systems converge and in which not knowing about affliction comes as a result of a combination of secrecy, uncertainty, and skepticism (ibd. 391–392). Susan Reynolds Whyte (1997) dealt extensively with the processuality of not knowing and the uncertainty of affliction in Eastern Uganda. She suggested that sickness always bears a certain degree of uncertainty and that people's ability to experiment with alternative therapies can represent an important resource for dealing with this uncertainty (ibd. 23). In her field site, this ability contributed to a state of "subjunctivity," of opened possibilities of outcome and hope (Whyte 1997, 216; see also Good 1994, 153). Similar observations can be found in the literature dealing with affliction and illness in Tanzania (Dilger 2005, 244 ff.; Langwick 2011, 155).
These authors suggest that another way of apprehending the uncertainty of severe life-threatening illnesses is the way patients approach diagnoses. Often, leaving the encounter with a healer—be it biomedical or non-biomedical—with an ambiguous diagnosis allows the afflicted to remain in a subjunctive state. The aim of such an encounter is not to obtain certainty, but a certain sense of security: the afflicted—to the best of their abilities—acted to address the causes of affliction. Because "uncertainty can only be hedged, not ruled out" (Whyte 1997, 211), for such an encounter to be deemed successful, there is no need for a clear-cut diagnosis.
This way of looking at affliction often conflicts with that of biomedical practitioners whose main concern is the objective analysis of pathological processes, frequently without consideration for patients' experiences and interpretations. It gets, however, more complicated when it comes to mental disorders. There is no blood test, nor genetic marker for many mental illnesses. Therefore, diagnosis often entails a great deal of uncertainty and relies on the subjective conclusion of clinicians (Davies 2014).
To deal with this uncertainty, Lutindi clinicians often used the umbrella term "mental illness" when describing a patient's condition to me and families, and, rarely, to patients themselves. Diagnosis was also subject to change during hospitalization. Evaluation interviews had a bi-weekly schedule in an institutional context of clinical rotation, which meant that a single patient was always evaluated by different clinicians. Therefore, if a diagnosis was changed from bipolar disorder to schizophrenia (e.g. for the discharge file), this would be in line with the general label of "mental illness." And as doctor Ngeleja, one of the younger practitioners in the hospital, explained, they were treating mental illnesses, not specific disorders. "First, you need to have restraint and listen to what the family and the patient have to say," he once told me when I enquired about diagnosis. "But then, towards the end of the interview, you tell them the truth [my emphasis]: 'this is a mental illness.'" And in time this certainty could be apprehended by patients.
Working therapy was an important part of the Lutindi rehabilitation program. The work was often carried out on a small farm annexed to the hospital. Copyright: Florin Cristea
When I asked Godlisten about the different experiences he had with hospitals and with traditional healers, he told me, "Some things from the mganga, they are not sure to heal. They become… bahatisha [hazard]."
"What does bahatisha mean?" I asked.
"It is some kind of luck," Godlisten explained. "Good luck, or bad luck, it is some people's luck. They are not sure. It makes the treatment work better or not."
"And the doctors in the hospital?"
"They are surer of their medicine."
For Godlisten, uncertainty was part of the treatment prescribed outside of the hospital. Although he acknowledged doctors' medical certainty, he preferred combining the different treatment traditions over following only one therapeutic path, as they responded to different symptoms.
However, occasionally patients were as skeptical about biomedical interventions as they were about other healing practices. Consider the following example of Juma, in his early fifties who, before losing his job in 2011, worked for most of his life as a clinical officer in Dar es Salaam. He listed several events that contributed to his illness. First, he was robbed in the early 1990s, and due to a heavy blow to his head during this incident, began to hear voices for the first time. A few years later, the voices returned during a bout of cerebral malaria. Next, in 2007, he got into a fight with his maternal aunt [mama mdogo] who allegedly bewitched him, hoping he would lose the real estate he was supposed to inherit. During the time closer to his hospitalization, the overconsumption of alcohol triggered his latest phase of hearing voices. When I asked about his experience with different treatment traditions, he told me:
The treatment you get in the hospital is comparable with the treatment you get from the traditional healers. Some traditional healers are just after your money. But some of them can do very good. It is also something I learned in the hospital. They do not have a proper treatment for this. It is similar to AIDS. They do not have a proper cure for AIDS. Also, in the case of mental problems, I don't think in the hospitals they have a permanent treatment.
In summary, I argue that, to cover for the contingencies of recovery burgeoning in an environment suffused with uncertainty, patients, families, and kin – although not always in agreement – decided for combining different treatment traditions. Furthermore, during this process they did not necessarily feel the need for a tailored diagnosis for the illness. In light of these insights, I argue that diagnostic uncertainty occurs if the following conditions are met:
First, practitioners in the hospital communicate neither the name (according to the diagnostic manual used), nor the consequences of the diagnosed mental illness to the patients and their relatives. However, they evoke certainty by using an umbrella term ("mental illness") for a variety of symptoms that would normally be attributed to distinct diagnostic labels.
Second, patients and families usually neither challenge this broad diagnosis, if it is given at all, or the fact that consequences of the illness are not being communicated to them. This does not happen because of obedience to clinical authority, but rather as part of the mutually shared project of maintaining uncertainty.
Third, diagnostic uncertainty needs to be made use of within a therapeutic context that includes different medical traditions (both biomedical and non-biomedical), upon which patients draw throughout their illness trajectory. As previously argued, the ability to alternate between different treatment traditions can represent a resource for coping with the uncertainties of severe chronic illnesses and can generate hope. Non-biomedical treatments in this medical context are not to be considered "alternative" or "complementary" healing practices to biomedicine but need to be ascribed similar potency. As was, for example, the case with Godlisten who believed that the medicine prescribed by the hospital targeted one set of symptoms, while those prescribed by the traditional healer were effective for another one.
Diagnostic uncertainty and moral experience
In this blog piece, I identify two consequences of diagnostic uncertainty for patients' experience in Lutindi. First, it made the prolonged hospitalization time of around two months less bearable for patients because what was at stake and what it meant to be "good" for clinicians, did not coincide with patients' definitions, leading to a tension that they never discussed during evaluation interviews or otherwise. Especially among urban male patients, not being able to return to their life outside of the hospital was experienced as an inconvenient break from their duties and responsibilities as men. Due to illness, they were either unable to start families or, because they struggled to hold down jobs while on medication or sick, they could not care for the families they had already built. Furthermore, because of the side effects caused by anti-psychotics, they could not maintain an active sexual life. What was at stake for them was the ability to return to a life in which they may be heads of households and fulfill the responsibilities they associated with "being a man." In other words, what was important for them did not correspond to the hospital's moral order.
Second, patients did not feel disconnected from the moral worlds outside of the hospital while hospitalized—not even if they have been struggling with schizophrenia for more than 20 years. This was the case for Henry Maalim who, up to the point of this latest hospitalization worked as a road engineer despite dealing with schizophrenia for nearly 30 years. He told me, "[My family] will look for a job for me even on the moon. But then they say, 'Ah! But why does your illness not stop?' Because I am sick since I was 19." He then added, "I fear to become totally crazy…. But I learned here in church that everything will be okay." Upon discharge, he planned to not only live a life in "God's way," but also to return to the traditional treatments he gave up when admitted. By adding another treatment layer, uncertainty was maintained. So was the hope that he could one day return to his full responsibilities as a father and head of household.
Definitions of living a "good life" for Lutindi patients remained anchored to the life-worlds outside of the clinic. Susan Reynolds Whyte compellingly showed that preserving uncertainty in Eastern Uganda kept people connected to their moral worlds during times of affliction (1997, 155 ff.). Similarly, I tried to argue in this text, maintaining uncertainty through diagnosis during hospitalization was what kept Lutindi patients connected to their moral words outside of the hospital.
This research and my MA studies at the Freie Universität Berlin were made possible by funding from the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), for which I am very grateful. I thank Professor Dr. Hansjörg Dilger and Professor Dr. Thomas Stodulka for their inspiring guidance and supervision of my MA project. I thank Professor Dr. Hansjörg Dilger again, Dr. Dominik Mattes, and Sandy Xu for their thorough editing and reviews of previous versions of this blog piece. I also owe my profound gratitude to Lutindi clinicians and employees who allowed me to be part of their professional and personal lives, and who met my constant inquiries with kindness and grace. My foremost gratitude goes to the Lutindi patients who in a very difficult period in their lives accepted to talk to and share their stories with me.
Florin Cristea is a PhD candidate at the Institute of Social and Cultural Anthropology at Freie Universität Berlin. Combining methods and epistemologies from psychological and medical anthropology, his current research focuses on emotions and mental illness in Indonesia. Previously, he explored the clinical experience of people with a diagnosis of a mental illness in Romania and Tanzania.
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[1] According to clinicians from my fieldwork, the number of psychiatrists in Tanzania varied between 30 and 50. The last official count I identified mentions only 18 psychiatrists (Mbatia and Jenkins 2010, 1029) in a country with over 55 million citizens.
[2] As per the request of the medical administrator, I have used the actual name of the hospital. However, I have anonymized the names of the research participants, community members, and clinicians.
[3] Using the term "patient" or "outpatient" raises some ethical dilemmas, discussed in more detail, among others, by Foucault (2004, 144), Scheper-Hughes and Lovell (1986, 160-161), and Myers (2015, 10 and 81). While I am aware of the identity politics associated with these terms, I will nevertheless use them throughout this blog piece as local, emic terminology. For the same reason, I will refer to medical practitioners with the term "doctor," although the formal university requirements were not fulfilled to hold this title.
[4] Henry Lefebvre (1991[1971]) defines "lived space" as the space of subjective experience (ibid., 33), the space of everyday life, which is "situational" and "relational" (ibid., 362-363). In other words, social relations and interaction produce space and therefore the object of interest should shift from "things in space, to the actual production of space" [original emphasis] (ibid., 37).
[5] Morality in this sense is not to be understood as a broad ethical code, but rather as local ways people come to be recognized as "good" (Kleinman 1999; Luhrmann 2001; Mattes 2012).
[6] The term "traditional" in "traditional healer" should not be understood in contrast with the term modern, as the phenomena it refers to are not defined by immutability, but by the history and culture of certain social groups (Hobsbawm and Ranger 1983, 14). My own understanding of "traditional" healing and healers stems from the definitions given by my research participants who oppose these healing practices with those of the hospital or other biomedical institutions. Therefore, I have translated the Kiswahili terms waganga wa kienyeji (literally local healers) and waganga wa asili (literally naturalist/herbalist healers) to "traditional healers" by which I refer to non-biomedical practitioners that make use of medicinal plants in their work (for a more detailed discussion on the different terms attributed to "traditional healers" in Tanzania, see Langwick 2011, 87-88). Wa/Mganga, which I translated simply as "healer", apart from dealing with plants also promise treatment against ailments associated with witchcraft. I maintain this distinction to guarantee the fluidity of my text. However, in common discursive practices these definitions at times overlap.
Tagged on: Africa, Alternative and Traditional Medicine, Biomedicine / Biomedizin, Ethnography / Ethnographie, Healing / Heilung, Hospital ethnography, Mental Health, Tanzania
Von Florin Cristea | 12. Juli 2019 | Allgemein, Forschungen | Keine Kommentare |
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Home » Interview with Brigadier General William E. Cole
Interview with Brigadier General William E. Cole
Fiona Greenyer
"I see training technology as a key readiness enabler for our force. We're so fortunate to be in an era when we can conduct so much training, not only live training which we still do plenty of, but training in virtual simulators and constructive training for staffs and headquarters."
Group Editor Marty Kauchak completed a wide-ranging Q&A with Brigadier General William E. Cole, the Program Executive Officer for Simulation, Training and Instrumentation (PEO STRI), Orlando on October 12, 2017. Following an introduction in MS&T 6/2017, the interview is provided below in its entirety.
Brigadier General William E. Cole, Program Executive Officer for Simulation, Training and Instrumentation
MS&T: Thank you for taking time to speak with us today. While MS&T is aware of PEO STRI and its mission, perhaps you can start by updating us on your command's role in supporting simulation and training in the Army.
BG Cole (BGC): The Chief of Staff of the Army, General Mark Milley, has stated repeatedly his number one priority is readiness. I see training technology as a key readiness enabler for our force. We're so fortunate to be in an era when we can conduct so much training, not only live training which we still do plenty of, but training in virtual simulators and constructive training for staffs and headquarters. We think we're a key component of building Army readiness and meeting General Milley's objective.
MS&T: You said something important, that the command continues to focus on training readiness for the individual soldier up through the unit/collective level, including staffs.
BGC: Yes, we have collective trainers for everything from the crew level in the virtual domain up to division and brigade staffs, as we train with constructive simulations that simulate thousands to tens of thousands of soldiers in the field, that those staffs would normally command. We use constructive simulations to give those staffs the training they need without having to send tens of thousands of soldiers out to the field.
MS&T: You mentioned different training domains. Please provide a snapshot of the major contracts or programs in place to support training across the different domains.
BGC: Before we go into contracts, I want to also point out that cyber is a domain that we're getting more and more involved in. We have a testing support mission and we have had that for years. Because of that mission we have grown quite an expertise in cyber testing of US systems.
MS&T: To follow up, how do you see cyber evolving within the Army training community – integrated in the current live, virtual, constructive and serious gaming domains, or as a standalone capability in the next three to five years.
BGC: We're going to see both and in far less time than that. I do think we'll start seeing some cyber play at our combat training centers. But even now, we've recently been given the mission of establishing the Persistent Cyber Training Environment. We're excited to have that mission. We have administered the National Cyber Range here in Orlando that was originally started by DARPA [Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency] and then transitioned over to the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). They have asked us to administer it for them. With recent encouragement from the US Congress, Secretary Kendall [Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics] before he departed office, directed the establishment of a persistent training environment and made the Army the executive agent. We were then given the responsibility as the materiel developer. We're working to support US Cyber Command and all the service cyber components, we're helping to grow connectivity and capacity in the different OSD and service cyber ranges, and develop that into a full-fledged, Persistent Cyber Training Environment that all of the joint force cyber warriors can train on and qualify on, not only individually but in collective units as well.
MS&T: You mentioned one instance of joint training – "jointness" appears the direction the services are proceeding in cyber and other missions, when possible, to maximize efficiencies.
BGC: We're focused on giving all of the services and US Cyber Command all of the training ranges they need to complete all of their training efforts.
MS&T: And some of the major contracts or areas of interest in PEO STRI's portfolio?
BGC: For about the last ten years we have had the Warfighter Field Operations Customer Support (Focus) Program Contract. It has been a very powerful contract for us. The actual period of performance ends at the end of this month although we are going to extend certain task orders for a certain period of time. That was a massive training support contract that we used in Continental United States for US forces and overseas for both US and partner forces. It included everything from support of combat training centers to home stations to support of our Afghan partners, for example, for providing flight schools and other training services both in Afghanistan and in other overseas locations. Warfighter Focus was a very successful contracting vehicle but is coming to a natural end. We are transitioning to two different contracts. One is focused on maintenance of Army training devices – the TADSS (Training Aids, Devices, Simulators, and Simulations) Maintenance Program. We have many, many TADSS across the US and at Army bases across the world. Maintaining those is an important job, to make sure they are ready when soldiers need to train. The Army TADSS maintenance program will take over that part of Warfighter Focus which handled that maintenance. We should award that in second quarter fiscal year 2018. Similarly, we have the Enterprise Training Services Contract (ETSC) which will take over many of the training services tasks that were conducted under Warfighter Focus. The Army shifted to providing soldiers at home station with local contracts for training services. If units travel away from home station, if they want to do a field exercise at an Air Force base or a National Guard Training Center for example, they can leverage ETSC to get the training support they need there. We can also use the ETSC to continue providing training to our partner nation forces around the world.
MS&T: You mentioned the National Guard. It appears ETSC will support the "Total Army" or "Total Force" – the active component and Reserve and Guard.
BGC: Yes, it is available to both the Guard and Reserve as well as active force. Anywhere they are training, as long as it is not home station, they can leverage ETSC to get training support. We also have a Life Cycle Product Line Management (LCPM) Contract coming up. That is going to give a way to more deliberately look at the hardware components of many of our training devices and strive for commonality and ease of maintenance across our different hardware lines. For example, we have many different training devices which require cameras or other pieces of hardware. Through the LCPM Contract we'll be able to achieve a common standard across many different training devices to save the Army money and allow our field representatives to be more responsive.
MS&T: You mentioned a common standard which has remained a goal by the military services and industry for many learning technologies through the years. Any initial thoughts on what a common standard might be for an image generator, as an example, or is this a work in progress?
BGC: These would be COTS items – for instance, if we're going to make a large buy of COTS cameras, we'd rather focus on one or two kinds that could serve in multiple types of training systems, as opposed to a unique one in each training system.
MS&T: The Army also has one or two other major training programs in progress.
BGC: The Army's big initiative in training is to establish the Synthetic Training Environment STE) – the future training environment to enable commanders to train the way you fight no matter where you are. We have the LVC-IA (Live, Virtual, Constructive – Integrated Architecture) which we have put in place over years, which took different virtual and constructive simulations that were developed independently and managed to connect them, even connect them with live training. We can do that at home station today. For example, Fort Riley [Kansas] runs an exercise for reach of its brigades annually, which will cycle a battalion in the field, a battalion in virtual simulators, and a battalion TOC [tactical operation center] in the field driven by constructive simulation. To integrate that all together into a LVC-IA exercise for each brigade is impressive, but they can only do that at home station. There is a lot of preparation that has to take place beforehand. Our expectation is with the STE we'll have an integrated training environment which will greatly reduce the burden and overhead required to put together those types of exercises. It will eliminate a lot of those barriers by going to what we call a dynamic model of terrain standard for all of our different simulations. We want it to provide training at the point of need, not just a home station but in armories for the Guard, and especially when soldiers are deployed. If they can train in this type of environment while they are deployed that will be a huge advantage.
MS&T: If STE supports deployed forces, will this evolve into a mission rehearsal capability or tool?
BGC: Yes, absolutely. That would be another great potential advantage of going to STE. And we're also looking for other technologies that will help us reduce the overhead of our virtual trainers in our training systems.
MS&T: And this I/ITSEC should provide one opportunity to see some of the emerging technologies that will help you meet that and other challenges.
BGC: We'll see what industry on the floor has to discuss and offer, in particular, the advances they have in deployable, reconfigurable simulators, and in simulators and simulations which are easier for soldiers to set up and support their training objectives.
MS&T: Might there be any other technology topics of interest – augmented or virtual reality, or others?
BGC: Augmented reality is a huge growth area for simulation. I see my kids playing games for pleasure and I also always think are there military applications of this type of technology – and I am sure there are.
MS&T: We also see industry focusing its applications for AR/VR and mixed reality to specific missions and tasks – maintenance for example.
BGC: There are a lot of maintenance trainers that we develop. And if you could make them more effective by using augmented reality, we are very open to that. And I have seen some pretty fun, frankly, gunnery trainers that use augmented reality. I look forward to seeing what other applications may be on the floor at I/ITSEC. Another thing I will be looking at are technologies that will better help a squad train collectively in a virtual or semi-virtual environment whether it is augmented reality or virtual reality. We have systems today that can train multiple soldiers if they are static. But having a capability to train and still have motion, and still be able to interact with each other would be important. We can do that in the gaming environment and that is valuable to some extent. The Army Games for Training program is one of the most widely used training systems we have. This is good for the "crawl" phase of training – to work out your schemes of maneuver, your reporting procedures – gaming is a very effective and low over-head way to do it. But we'd love to see if there is something higher fidelity or more immersive.
MS&T: Are there any other service simulation and training "gaps" you are seeking to close with these emergent technologies?
BGC: We are trying to meet all the objectives of the Synthetic Training Environment. I mentioned the dynamic model of terrain. The ability to train at the point of need, whether it is home station or a deployed area – in an environment that will link all of the simulations together. We managed to do it with our old simulators at home station. Because they were developed independently that was very, very challenging. We need a more coherent environment – a synthetic environment – that pulls all of our virtual and collective trainers together.
MS&T: Highlight the best way for a company or academic institution to contact PEO STRI and raise your awareness about a new S&T technology or capability of possible interest to your service?
BGC: We're always happy when anyone goes to our website , they can first do that. We also partner very closely with the Army's Contracting Command (ACC) Orlando office. Along with ACC Orlando we brief industry every month at what they call Procurement Administrative Lead Time (PALT) meetings. This is when we, as the requiring activity, finishes a contract request and hands it to the contracting office which puts it in the form of a request for proposal and "puts it on the street". That's the PALT process. Every month we brief industry. Whoever wants can attend and find out the latest on what contracts we have coming up in the future, current source selection and award times, and see what's next at PEO STRI! We also encourage them to the attend the I/ITSEC and the summer [NDIA] TSIS (Training & Simulation Industry Symposium), but our PALT sessions are open to the public every month and you will see the contracting command and our PMs.
MS&T: Earlier, you mentioned training the Afghans. What is PEO STTRI's role in supporting the training and education part of Foreign Military Sales (FMS)? Is this a growth mission for the command?
BGC: It's a big part of our portfolio – more than one-third. We talk about FMS during the PALT sessions and we're happy to talk to industry about how we support FMS. We work very closely with the US Army Security Assistance Command at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama. We partner with them all the time to help provide training systems to our allies and partners.
MS&T: Any final thoughts to close our interview, please?
BGC: Yes, we do have a Technology and Industry Liaison Officer and industry can reach out to the office through our web site, as well.
Defence Land
Flybe to Open First European Base


I'm not sure where to put this new Google search term.
I'd love for that to appear next to his name when someone types it!
www.infowars.com comes up as #1!
I want this to bubble to the top again.
I'm sure that Jay will make some calls and make google take it down quickly.
But even so, it might open a few more eyes.
Our luck, it will goad him into a rage. He'll ask Barry, to Kill the internet.


Robert moved to Bourbon County, Kentucky, in 1814, then to Fayette County, Kentucky, before coming to Clark County, Indiana, in 1821. He lived in Clark and Scott counties in Indiana before moving to Phillips County, Arkansas, in 1837. In 1842, he returned to Scott and Clark counties in Indiana, before going by covered wagon to Jasper County, Iowa, in 1854. He was a farmer, a Methodist, and a Republican.
This entry was posted in Clark County, Scott County and tagged Demar, Haldren, Waller, Wilson on September 21, 2014 by oahblog.
William's family moved to Liberty Bell, Iowa, when he was only eleven years old. After finishing grammar school, he went to Ashland University, Iowa, and graduated at eighteen years old. Following graduation, he taught school in the John Wiley district on the Des Moines River. He had thirty-six pupils and received a salary of forty dollars a month. He took turns boarding with parents of his pupils.
On 3 August 1861, William enlisted in the Union Army at Ottumwa, Iowa. He joined the First Regiment, Iowa Volunteer Cavalry and his regiment fought in battles in Missouri, Arkansas, and Texas. He was subsequently commissioned First Lieutenant and was mustered out in 1865 with the rank of Major.
After the Civil War, William engaged in railroad construction work in association with his father-in-law, building twenty-five miles of railroad from Omaha to Fremont, Nebraska. More railroad construction followed, taking the family from California to Texas, to Chile, South America, to Mexico, and to Alaska. Along the way he bought land, helped found the town of Monrovia, named in his honor, and served as the new town's first mayor.
In 1935, at the age of ninety-four, he led the Monrovia Day parade when Monrovia celebrated its forty-ninth anniversary.
This entry was posted in Scott County and tagged Bailey, Dyer, Evans, Hall, Monroe on July 7, 2014 by oahblog.
County, Kentucky. They left Kentucky for Ashland City, Cheatham County, Tennessee, about 1899. Next, the family moved to Holcomb/White Oak, Missouri, in 1904.
James and Betty both died in May 1906 of pneumonia caused by being in the river after their ferry caught fire. They left six young children. The oldest four girls, all of whom were born in Indiana, had married and stayed in Tennessee.
This entry was posted in Bartholomew County, Brown County, Scott County and tagged Allen, Butcher, Dowlen, Grey, Hagewood, Hawley, Henry, Inman, Murphy, Parks, Pascal, Smallwood, Walker, Wilkerson on March 28, 2014 by oahblog.
Henry Monroe's father and mother and his paternal grandfather, William P. Monroe, were all native-born Hoosiers.
Henry was Bertha June Peacock's second husband. She first married Clem Chasteen.
Henry tried farming in both Indiana and South Dakota between 1917 and 1927 but in October 1927 moved to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, where he accepted a position as plant policeman with the Jones and Laughlin Steel Corp. He remained in Pittsburgh until his retirement in 1953 and move to Newcastle, Pennsylvania.
Henry's son Kenneth Raymond did not like Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, after moving there in October 1927 with his parents. On 23 February 1934, with only an eighth grade education, he enlisted in the U.S. Army Air Corps. In 1960, after receiving a high school diploma from George Washington University and graduating from Los Angeles City College, he accepted a position as comptroller with the U.S. State Department. He retired after 10 years with a total of 35 years service with the U.S. government.
This entry was posted in Scott County and tagged Bolser, Chasteen, Gerber, Harriott, Isabella, McIntire, Monroe, Owens, Peacock, Pierring, Reimer, Seiling, White on March 28, 2014 by oahblog.


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Blindspot 1×03
by Oliver Layco · October 8, 2015
So we now have confirmation that Jane Doe is really Taylor Shaw! However, Mayfair wasn't so keen on letting her identity be known. The mystery guy that's been following Jane around also confronted her, but that was short lived as the people they worked for took him out shortly thereafter. Though, he did deliver a mystery message to Jane telling her not to trust "them". Anyhow, the basic parts of the episode followed the basic formula that's been established already. Seemingly random crime occurs, FBI gets wind of it, it links with one of Taylor's tattoo's, and we end up with more questions than answers. The difference for this week's version is that the crew of robbers were former Special Ops as well and they had the same tattoo as her. This is where the show is somewhat lacking for me; just the repetitive nature of each episode so far. The overall story arc is great and that's what I really want to know more about. There were some character conflicts/developments that made things interesting with the team as well. Agent Reade was upfront about his hesitation with having Taylor around for everything and he wasn't sure if this is the safest way to go about things; and he called out Weller for being too personal with this one. However, when things settled they talked it out with Mayfair to fully integrate her with the team after the basic tests were passed. Mayfair also had an interesting development when Patterson unlocked another of Taylor's tattoos that linked Mayfair to a past FBI case. Mayfair was immediately concerned and Patterson couldn't get more information out of her. Afterwards, Mayfair met with a past colleague who wasn't in favor of keeping Taylor alive. Apparently only four people knew about this mystery case and it will definitely be a bigger thing going forward this season. Now that Taylor knows who she is, it looks like we're gonna be getting flashbacks going all the way back to when she first disappeared as a child. This arc will be exciting but I'm still curious as to how much they're trying to fit into this first season. As for acting and everything else, it was pretty much the same it's been since the premiere; one exception being that Stapleton felt more stiff than usual. HIs acting was fairly dry trying to be the rough and tough guy.
The Strain Returns
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Black-painted, dome-top box with scrolled hasp lock on front, circular wire ring handle on top, and two hinges at back. Box front and sides have a red band containing yellow-dotted alizarin ovals with yellow streamers above green swags and yellow tassels. Lid top has yellow graduated brushstrokes on four sides of the handle; a yellow ribbon and thick band border its edges. Three-piece lid has a wire-rolled rim. Three-piece box has a top edge folded with wire bead below and a flat bottom. Scratched on bottom underside in cursive script "C,C, Spencer / No. 5".


Barbara Ann Williams, age 71, of Norman, passed away Wednesday, September 5, 2012.
She was born on April 2, 1941, in Hot Springs, the daughter of Steve Williams and Ena McLean Williams. She was preceded in death by her parents; and her brother, Bill Williams.
She is survived by her sister-in-law, Betty Williams of Norman; and her nephew, Charles Williams of Norman.
The family will hold a graveside memorial service at 10:00 AM, Tuesday, September 11, 2012, in the Oak Grove Cemetery, near Caddo Gap, with Bro. Robbie Loudermilk officiating.
Arrangements are under the direction of Davis-Smith Funeral Home, Glenwood.


While the bus (and Karen) stayed in San Diego this past week, I've been all over the place! I first flew to Oklahoma City to present my From Focus to Finished Kelby Training Seminar to a lively and enthusiastic crowd. Many thanks to the Oklahoma gang for making it such a fun day of training.
After the 1-day seminar, I flew right to West Palm Beach, where the annual FOTOfusion conference was already in full swing. I taught three classes there, one of which was a 3-hour hands-on class on directing the viewers' eye. This event is always a lot of fun because of all the friends I get to connect with. Lots of my photographer/digital artist friends come together here every year and it's great to catch up and socialize after the conference hours. Among the many instructors who gather here are my friends Lee Varis, Lewis Kemper, Dan Burkholder, Ross Whitaker, John Reuter, Vincent Versace and more.
As I mentioned in previous posts, we recently ordered a new MINI and have been [not so] patiently awaiting its arrival, as it has been travelling on a large cargo ship from Europe. The other day, however, we were happy to see that the ship finally docked just north of Los Angeles, so as soon as it makes its way to the Las Vegas dealership, we can go pick it up.
While I was off teaching seminars, Karen hung out with the bus in San Diego and has been immersing herself in both digital projects as well as a slew of cooking classes. Culinary technique is her new thing... and you don't hear me complaining! You can read about her week over at her blog, The Pixel Diaries.


text:
RenewAmerica.com January 18, 2020 Click here to receive our twice-weekly Newsletter
Jerry Newcombe
Marriage is the dream that will not die
By Jerry Newcombe
June is the month of weddings. Now that the dust has completely settled from the mid-May wedding of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, it's interesting to note that the eyes of hundreds of millions around the world were looking at this whole event with great interest. How come – in light of the notion that marriage is just an antiquated institution these days?
The charismatic American Bishop, Michael Curry of the (U.S.) National Cathedral, made a worldwide impression in his impassioned speech at the royal wedding. John Sorensen, president of Evangelism Explosion International, said, "The Bishop's message, which focused on love, would have been a wonderful opportunity to share what Biblical love really means. Sadly, we were presented with a Beatles version of 'All You Need is Love,' whereas, Biblical love is Jesus Christ laying down His life for us."
Sorensen added, "The Bishop's message on love clearly resonated with many people because we're created for love, but true love comes from God."
Marriage is ultimately a picture of Christ and His bride. Perhaps, that is why the enemy of our souls hates it so much.
Meanwhile, why did the wedding itself garner so much attention? It's almost the stuff of fairy tales. The answer is: "Marriage is the dream that will not die," as my wife of 38 years likes to often say.
Sometimes, it seems like marriage is on virtual life support in the Western world. It is battered and bruised. It's fine for the old folks, but not trending for millennials.
Writing for Bentley University, Meg Murphy observes, "Millennials are saying no to traditional marriage in record numbers." She adds: "The marriage rate might drop to 70 percent – a figure well below rates for boomers (91 percent), late boomers (87 percent) and Gen Xers (82 percent)."
I think part of the dearth of marriage in our society is because of what could be called "the romanticist delusion."
The romanticist delusion has done a lot of damage to love in the Western world. Feelings come, and feelings go. But commitment remains the same.
In our book Lord of All, D. James Kennedy and I address this romanticist delusion: "The idea that if we can just find that one soul mate, that single person, then we will have the pitter-patter of our heart, the flip-flapping of the wings of the bird of paradise, and we will sail off into the sunset. That is until one or the other does not treat his spouse like 1 Corinthians 13 says, and then all of a sudden the bird falls like a dead owl, and we wonder that happened. We have been led down the primrose path. No. Marriage is not based so much upon love (and this may startle some of you) as marriage is based on commitment – commitment to believe that marriage is a permanent, indissoluble relationship between two who have become one and who are no longer one any longer. Until we have that commitment, we do not have the fertile ground for the seeds of love to take hold."
I know some young people who really want to get married. But they make the criteria so hard for a potential spouse. They raise the bar so high that virtually no one can reach it.
Specific things that couples do can greatly increase the chances of their staying together. This includes praying together, going to church together, and developing hobbies together. Being quick to forgive and to overlook faults contributes to a healthy marriage.
What's happened to marriage? The New York Times once called America a "post-marital society." Tragically, that seems to be accurate.
I say tragically because marriage is good. It's good for your spiritual health, your mental health, your physical health, your fiscal health, your sexual life. In short, it's good all around. And it's good for society.
And yet marriage is under attack in America – seemingly from all quarters, such as:
No-fault divorce laws which make it easy to get divorced, even if only one wants out. Imagine trying to do business with someone where the other person can simply opt out whenever he/she feels like it;
Living together before marriage, which generally better prepares a couple for divorce than a happy marriage;
The feminist assault. One of their leaders said (long before she herself got married) that a woman needs a man like a fish needs a bicycle;
The attempt to redefine marriage in same-sex terms;
The Marxist hostility towards it. Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels declared in the Communist Manifesto: "Abolition of the family!"
Yet despite the attacks, marriage – which has a lot to offer, no matter how hard our culture tries to deny it – continues. And the world even stops to watch a fairytale version of the dream that will not die.
© Jerry Newcombe
The views expressed by RenewAmerica columnists are their own and do not necessarily reflect the position of RenewAmerica or its affiliates.
(See RenewAmerica's publishing standards.)
Jerry Newcombe is an on-air personality/senior producer for D. James Kennedy Ministries. He has written/co-written 31 books, e.g., The Unstoppable Jesus Christ; American Amnesia: Is America Paying the Price for Forgetting God?; What If Jesus Had Never Been Born? (w/ D. James Kennedy); The Book That Made America, Doubting Thomas (w/ Mark Beliles, on Jefferson), and the bestseller,George Washington's Sacred Fire (w/ Peter Lillback). djkm.org@newcombejerry, www.jerrynewcombe.com
Receive future articles by Jerry Newcombe: Click here
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Q: windows service uninstallation I created a simple windows service. And added setup project to this solution. I could build service and setup project successfully. Also after build I could use the MSI file created successfully.
I could install windows service successfully and could achiev the functionality.
But now I want to uninstall the service and from Add/Remove programs I am removing this service. The service is uninstalled from Add/Remove programs.
But still I can see the service in the list of Service. Do I need to add anything while creating the setup for windows service?

A: When you create a setup project you can set external commands to run before installation:

*

*Right click the SetupProject from visual studio and select "custom
actions" from the view.

*You will find these custom actions: install, commit, rollback and uninstall.

*Right click on each of these actions one after the other and add a
custom action.

*After doing so you will find a select item in project window.

*In the window, select Application folder in the dropdown. This will list the primary output from windows service, select it and click ok.

*Save and build the setup project.

A: The typical problem when uninstalling services with the service installer classes is that setup projects provide no automatic stopping of the service. So the uninstall marks the service for removal. It can't remove it because it doesn't stop it. If you reboot the system you might see the service finally disappear.
The typical solution is to override the Uninstall custom action and add your own code to explicitly stop the service, then base.Uninstall() will be able to remove it.
An even better solution is to use another tool that has support for the built-in Windows Installer functionality that just does this without any code (ServiceInstall and ServiceControl tables).

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Illustration Friday has a challenge every week. I so much enjoy doing this challenge. This week is Voices. These Voices in the night are speaking to all the little ones. I hope you enjoy this! Illustration Friday is a great way to showcase your work and a wonderful opportunity to meet lots of wonderful people! I encourage you to check it out! Lots of fun people and paintings! Thank you for stopping by!
You always figure out an illustration to the theme. Good for you! I would be stumped, but you do it.
Nice illustration for the theme, purple rocks.


text:
Climate Risks
Understanding Our Changing Climate
The Cowichan Region's climate has large variations over short distances because of complex geography. Areas with the least precipitation include the east coast of the region. The highest amounts of precipitation occur on the west coast of the region and upland areas in the interior of the Island. The projected impacts to our climate over the next century include an increase in temperature, an increase in precipitation, a decrease in snowpack through much of the region, and an increase in sea level.
Climate impacts are expected to contribute to increased intensity and frequency of natural hazards such as flooding, landslides and wildfires. The CVRD has completed natural hazard risk assessments for some areas in the region. The CVRD has also adopted a risk tolerance policy to ensure developments will not increase risks from natural hazards.
Climate models for the South Coast of BC project warming throughout the 21st century for all seasons. Summer is projected to warm slightly more than other seasons, by 2.0 oC by the 2050s and 3.1 oC by the 2080s.
A seasonal increase in hot and dry conditions would increase the possibility of water shortages, increase plant and livestock stress, and place thermal stress on fish and their habitats.
A change in agricultural productivity could result from a longer growing season, seasonally waterlogged soil, and decreased water availability. New crops and varieties may become viable. Animal and plant species are likely to migrate in response to warming. If the dry season increases in length, this could increase forest fire severity.
Fall, winter, and spring precipitation is expected to increase by about 10% by the 2080s while a decrease of over 10% in summer precipitation is projected.
Both river flooding and ocean storm surge events may increase in frequency and magnitude; stream bank erosion and strain on flood protection infrastructure may increase. Storm surge events may impact farmland in coastal and delta areas through soil salination, inundation, and the salination of irrigation water sources. Increasing storm surges could require new design guidelines for flood control levels.
Warming will decrease snowpack throughout much of the region. Increases to high-intensity precipitation and seasonal moisture variability affect a variety of habitats. There could be a transition to rainfall-dominant watersheds, causing an increased need for water conservation and storage.
Current estimates of mean sea level rise by 2100 for the east coast of Vancouver Island are an increase of 80 cm. The CVRD has developed detailed sea level rise impact mapping for the east coast region. Potential impacts of sea level rise include:
More frequent and extreme high water levels in coastal areas
Increased erosion and flooding
Increased risk to coastal infrastructure, as well as increased maintenance and repair costs
Loss of property due to erosion
Loss of habitat and reduced biodiversity
Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers
Loss of cultural and historical sites
New Normal Cowichan