text:
Jack Ryan and Tom Clancy - interpreting Donald Trump revisited
It's been a while since I said anything about President Trump. There seemed to be little sensible that I might say that would add value to such a polarised discussion.
Looking back over the little I have written, in Jack Ryan and Tom Clancy - interpreting Donald Trump (18 January 2018) I suggested that the writing of Tom Clancy might be used as a framework to interpret President Trump. I said:
I am not equating Jack Ryan with Donald Trump. They are very different people. However, Clancy did capture accurately certain aspects of US right wing populist thinking (I am using that phrase in a descriptive not pejorative sense) including distrust of those within the Beltway and of career politicians, a belief in bureaucratic inefficiency, a belief in the people, a belief in US military power and a somewhat mercantilist view of trade.
I also noted that in bringing about change, President Ryan has to deal with a media and political establishment that constantly tried to interpret his actions against existing models, paradigms, of thought and action. I thought that this was important, for that's what people were trying to do, judge Mr Trump against existing models that didn't quite fit. I thought that we would have to watch and wait to see what it all meant. I really didn't know! At the end of this post, you will find the new President's inaugural speech. That's worth re-reading, for it does provide a framework for President Trump's subsequent actions.
Clancy wrote rattling good yarns and I still enjoy them. However, I always thought that there was a certain naivety in his view of the world, one that became more pronounced with time. This included a belief in and fascination with the application of technology in a military environment allowing the US to win wars despite an over-stretched military. .
Jack Ryan is not Donald Trump. In Executive Orders (1996), Ryan becomes President unexpectedly after a Japanese pilot crashes his airliner into the Capitol building during a special joint sitting killing nearly all members of the Congress, the Cabinet and the Supreme Court. That's cleaning the swamp on a large scale.
Ryan inherited a fully functioning White House staff. This included Arnold van Damm as a Chief of Staff, a key figure with extensive political and Washington experience who guided the President through those first turbulent days. Ryan also picked highly competent replacement figures, especially in Treasury and Defence. They may be stereotypical of that belief that private sector figures are best, their attitudes may reflect prevailing orthodoxy about the inefficiencies of the public sector,the need for tax reform and redeployment of Defence spend, but they were highly competent, able to manage the re-emerging Congress without involving the President. In turn, Ryan gave them a wide degree of freedom.
Unlike Ryan, President Trump came to office after a very messy election campaign. Unlike Ryan, he faced a fully functioning if somewhat dysfunctional Congress. Unlike Ryan, he had to create his office from scratch. President Trump also faced a problem in that he did not have a lot of real depth to draw from in setting up that office and in making Executive appointments.
Twelve days after that first post I wrote Monday Forum - the administrative competence of the Trump Administration.That post began:
I think that the thing that most surprised me about President Trump's Executive Order "PROTECTING THE NATION FROM FOREIGN TERRORIST ENTRY INTO THE UNITED STATES" was the apparent administrative incompetence involved, something that may be becoming a feature of the new US Administration at this point in its life.
This was an initial analytical, not political; observation. I said something very similar about new Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd very early.The weaknesses and features displayed in the immediate period after his election would ultimately bring Mr Rudd down.
It will be twelve months Saturday since President Trump's inauguration. It's been a roller-coaster ride. If we look at a policy level, I think that President Trump has broadly tried to stay true to his original campaign pledges sensible or not. But then we have twitter and off-the-cuff Trump. Not only has this created uncertainty, but it has continued an almost existential debate that began prior to Mr Trump's election, one in which different world views collide in ways that may not have a lot to do with what is actually happening.
One unfortunate result has been a coarsening of the political rhetoric on both left and right as they talk past each other and try to relate beyond.. I listened to an example of that this morning from Australian Trade Minister Steven Ciobo.
Australia is engaged in a trade dispute with Canada over wine. In describing this this morning on ABC Radio National, Minister Ciobo used Trumpian language about Australian jobs and Australian first. I'm not sure he used exactly that last phrase, but that was the message.
This is a trade dispute. Australia believes, correctly to my mind, that Canadian restrictions are reducing importation of Australian wine in a way that is in breach of World Trade Organisation (WTO) agreements intended to prevent restrictions on global trade.. Australia is therefore taking action against Canada under the WTO rules to try to reduce the perceived barriers.
The way that Minister Ciobo phrases it plays into the current trope about the dangers of globalisation and free trade and the need for countries to to adopt them first attitudes regardless of the broader consequences. This began on the left and has now spread to the right and to the left and right populist parties. To my mind, it is one of the most dangerous sides of Trumpism.
This cartoon presents the results of the me-first policies that helped create the Great Depression. I could not find the Low cartoon on autarchy that shows each country eating their own legs in the interests of self sufficiency.
At present, my train reading is W K Hancock's Argument of Empire (Penguin Books, 1943). Keith Hancock is arguably Australia's greatest historian. I will write about this book properly later in my train reading series. For the moment, the book reminded me of the Great Depression and its aftermath.
In 1930, The US Congress passed the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act. This was an America first measure designed to protect American jobs at a time of global downturn. It lead to other countries adopting or increasing protectionist measures. The result was disaster, a collapse in world trade, that turned a depression into the Great Depression. As the results were recognised, countries began to reduce tariffs and sign free trade agreements, a process brought to a sudden end by the onset of war. However, the lessons learned led to a new series of agreements including Bretton Woods (1944) and the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (1947) that created the structure for a new rules based economic order.
This structure laid the base for economic expansion in the Post War period, but is now under severe threat. How President Trump responds on trade issues is one of the two critical Trumpian things I will be watching in 2018.
The second can best be described as insecurity. For much of the time since the Second World War, Australia has operated within a relatively stable international relations and security framework. The American Alliance has been central to that. New developments such as the rise of China posed a challenge to that framework, but few Australians (me included) expected a situation where instability and uncertainty in US foreign policy itself would become a significant challenge.What do Australia and all US allies do now?
I don't see this as necessarily a bad thing, but it is unsettling. It's unsettling for the US too in ways that I'm not sure are properly recognised there as yet. The US is used to doing its own thing, used to being in the lead with others following. As the US withdraws from certain activities such as the agreement on climate change or the TPP, other countries step up.
We simply don't know how the Trump administration will evolve over the next twelve months, we don't know what changes in defence and foreign affairs will be made as a consequence. We just have to wait. .
Posted by Jim Belshaw at 8:47 pm
Labels: foreign policy, international relations, politics, public policy
I always follow old links - particularly if I remember participating in them - just as a check on myself. And I gave myself a small tick - and saw that Jim chose to not acknowledge my quite valid point about just what "freedom of the press" actually means :)
Anyway, I see Pres. Trump has just announced his 'fake news' awards, and I was much disappointed to see that snail, Paul McGeogh did not get a guernsey. His Twitter feed is to enjoy :)
But back to old posts: it is sad to not see some very thoughtful commenters of ye olde no longer contributing? I hope they are all well, and that they realise that most arguments are basically academic - given how little actual, specific, influence we each have on these various outcomes?
But also, it's good to see the markets up, unemployment in the US down (particularly for Afro-Americans; lowest for yonks, I read), the GDP sniffing heights suggested to be unimaginable for at least 10 years. And of course ISIS retreating, Norks participating, investment booming (see even Apple today).
But I do tend to go on when there's even a hint of good news, so I've totally ignored the sniff of dis-functionality you detected on day #10 of the current term: I'm sure you are correct, and that the dis-functionality is entirely the fault of the elected head of state; certainly not anything to do with all those prior-appointed cya placeholders.
Maybe we also should elect a racist, sexist, befuddled, incoherent old guy - whose height is now being questioned, given that it would affect his possible h/w score and thus prove him probably (Paul would say definitely - but we can't actually find him :) impeachable?
Because, of course, feelings are so much more important than outcomes - hey?
ps and also: HRC is not president. Hard to accept, I accept - but we need to deal with it :)
kvd. When I attempted to post my response Google rejected it, saying that it was too long, that it must be at most 4096 characters. That's never happened before. So I am breaking my response into two parts.
Part one.
I apologise for the delay in responding to this comment, kvd.
Dealing with commenters first. Discussion is down in part because my posting has been down. Last year, there were just 108 posts here, the lowest since I started blogging. In addition, your regular sparring partner 2t is on a sabbatical break from blogging.
Now picking up some of your points. We did discuss freedom of the press, although I did leave my contribution somewhat hanging in the air. I have taken a note to go back to it. It's quite important.
I haven't really focused on Paul McGeough because I don't read his stuff, so I did a web search. According to the Guardian on 12 April last year (https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/apr/21/fairfax-correspondent-under-the-pump-over-trump) he was told to pull his head in and focus on his reporting role as opposed to commenting on events. Reading his short twitter feeds and some of his stories you can see why. Consider the headings in his collected pieces for the SMH http://www.smh.com.au/world/by/Paul-McGeough-hvees.
If you want to argue that reporting in most of the MSM has verged into commentary to the point where objectivity has been lost, where an echo chamber has been created, I would agree with you. But even more sympathetic reporters/commentators such as Tom Switzer - https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/europe/while-donald-trumps-words-are-divisive-and-dangerous-his-actions-are-far-less-reckless-20180115-h0i9pi.html -have been forced into distinguishing between President Trump's rhetoric and the actions of the administration. I quote:
"One of the few consolations about the past year is that the actions of the Trump administration have been more conventional than its words. It reminds one of the public-service adage: pay attention to what governments do rather than what they say.
Donald Trump demonstrates the point. Notwithstanding his divisive and dangerous rhetoric, Trump's presidency has been marked by more orthodox policies than his opponents feared and his supporters expected."
If we stand back and look at the twelve months of Trump presidency, has its administrative efficiency improved given the constraints of the American system? After that quite extended and very chaotic early period, I think that the answer is yes, although President Trump is still learning how limited his powers are.
Has the President had any successes? Yes. The two most obvious ones are the appointment of the Supreme Court judge and the taxation changes. One could also argue that his generally pro-business stance has encouraged economic expansion. In political terms, he has arguably faced down the Republican establishment.
One of the dangerous things at the moment lies in the way that people such as Tom are attempting to distinguish between the President's rhetoric and the way the administration actually works. The implication is that we should not worry, that we should ignore the President's words. Accepting that President Trump's utterances are over the place, it seems to me that he has been generally consistent with, indeed very conscious of, his campaign promises and early rhetoric. I don't think that we should ignore this.
I focused on two things to watch in coming months.
The first was trade and the impact on globalisation. It will be clear from the way that I framed the context that I see this as a significant threat. Here I am taking the common threads in Mr Trump's remarks from the campaign through to the present, taking man as he says.
The second was global insecurity, the reshaping of the US's international role and the impact of the stances it has been adopting. There I said in part:
"For much of the time since the Second World War, Australia has operated within a relatively stable international relations and security framework. The American Alliance has been central to that. New developments such as the rise of China posed a challenge to that framework, but few Australians (me included) expected a situation where instability and uncertainty in US foreign policy itself would become a significant challenge.What do Australia and all US allies do now?
I don't see this as necessarily a bad thing, but it is unsettling. It's unsettling for the US too in ways that I'm not sure are properly recognised there as yet. The US is used to doing its own thing, used to being in the lead with others following. As the US withdraws from certain activities such as the agreement on climate change or the TPP, other countries step up."
I do think that the international policy of the Trump administration has been less isolationist, more in tune with the past, than was feared. However, the pattern is still uncertain. Some of the local effects are captured in the title of Hugh White's recent Quarterly essay, "Without America: Australia in the new Asia."
I said that we would have to wait and see over the next twelve months. The new US military strategy - http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-20/china-and-russia-not-terrorism-main-threats-to-us-mattis-says/9345670 - was unveiled after I wrote. That suggests a cold war continuity.


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Omicron variant: for virologist Christian Béchot, the concern is legitimate
November 27, 2021 by CA18
The virologist and president of the "Global Virus Network" was the guest this Saturday of BFMTV, to react to the spread of the new variant of Covid-19, Omicron. If he calls for vigilance, he recalls that nothing indicates, for the moment, that this variant would resist vaccines.
Two days after the discovery of the Omicron variant in South Africa, the whole world is starting to prepare. While some countries are closing their borders, others are tightening their restrictive measures. A legitimate concern, for Professor Christian Bréchot, virologist and president of the "Global Virus Network", guest of BFMTV this Saturday evening.
"The information we have shows a very large number of mutations on the whole virus, but in particular on the envelope which is the target of the vaccines. When we look at the sequence, it can be worrying and this is the reason for which the WHO classified as worrying ", explains the scientist, for whom" we are right to get in working order to prevent its dissemination. "
If, for the moment, it is impossible to know if this new variant "is more resistant to vaccines" than another, for lack of "culture tests", the researchers know "that it has many mutations", including "some of between them can be dangerous ".
"Very rapid growth" in South Africa
The first source of concern, for Christian Béchot, lies in the conditions under which this Omicron variant has developed, in South Africa, "while gaining ground compared to the Delta variant" and within a poorly vaccinated population. but "naturally highly immune". Within the populations studied, "growth has been very rapid". Another black point: "Diffusion in other countries."
The share of variants sequenced in South Africa © BFMTV
"We knew that variants could happen, which confirms that as long as we have not controlled the circulation of the virus throughout the world, and not only by worrying about national policies, we will not have solved the problem", says the researcher.
A "completely different situation compared to a year ago"
However, the latter qualifies this rising concern: "We must remember that we are lucky, in a country like France, to have the vaccine, we must do the booster doses". "There are no indications for the moment that this virus must necessarily resist vaccines, so that does not change the overall strategy. We must always remember that we are seeing the arrival of antivirals, we have monoclonal antibodies and vaccines. The situation is completely different compared to a year ago, "he adds.
If he understands "the anticipation of the threat", he regrets the insufficient means for screening. "We should have much faster diagnostic tests. Unfortunately, the effort was not made at the same level as the vaccines", he underlines.
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Fan art turns Mass Effect characters into Animal Crossing villagers

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text: Q: Is there a SE site about Clothing Industry? I am trying to make some geek T-shirts that show a lot of mathematical or chemical formulas, and I find Graphic Design a perfect SE site for me to get information about design, so my question is there a SE site focus on Clothing Industry?

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text:
EDM TV > BIG ROOM > EDM NEWS > ELECTRO HOUSE > NEW RELEASES > REVIEWS > BASSROCK: I'm FRENCH – Deal With It!
BIG ROOM EDM NEWS ELECTRO HOUSE NEW RELEASES REVIEWS
BASSROCK: I'm FRENCH – Deal With It!
By EDM TV TEAM March 24, 2013 Last upadateOctober 5, 2014
Seattle's Electro house prodigy BASSROCK gains more and more dedicated following by the day. His weekly sets for The DJ Sessions on ITV LIVE have a global following as legendary DJ Donald Glaude just picked up his new track for Eden Records.
"I'm French, Deal With It" Is as playful and important as the name might suggest. Named for the French side of his blood, the track, boasts inventive synth design and arrangement, as well as a healthy dose of genre mixing. Funky French House chord stabs and leads are sprinkled into a complextro base, and supplemented with progressive minded chord plucks. The listener should definitely feel a groove, as Bassrock manages to pull of this funky melting pot of genres quite flawlessly. Although the track was finished almost six months ago, he's been holding out and generating plenty of buzz. Within that six months, the track has received international radio play on 6 continents.
Another track not to miss "1991," so named for Bassrock's birth year, presents an equally as funky listening option, this time catering to house heads. As with the previous one, this track incorporates a majestic blend of house styles, including electro, funky, progressive, and dubstyle. A master of the "double drop," Bassrock skillfully employs it here, opening with a jazzy uplifting lead melody, and countering with an ear shattering flurry of wobbles and funky lead stabs.
Surprisingly, EDM is new to Bassrock. Only 8 months into his career, He's still attempting to define his roots. As he tells it, "I've never really tried to define myself by genre. I'm commonly labeled Electro House, but there have been times when I've thought about doing just trance, Dubstep, Complextro, and Breakbeat. I've worked in over 30 subgenres, so it just makes sense not to limit myself to certain genres." Previously, Bassrock worked as a Hip Hop Producer and film score composer, even scoring numerous Seattle International Film Festival Pieces. "I think my roots have definitely affected my music," he says, "Much of the orchestral and Jazz element in my music is the result of my film composition, since those were the primary styles I composed in."
"1991" and "I'm French, Deal With It" are out now on Eden Recordings. Go get them on BEATPORT!
http://www.beatport.com/release/im-french-deal-with-it/1058472
http://www.beatport.com/release/1991/1021446
Also catch Bassrock spinning every Wednesday at 8pm PST on www.thedjsessions.com
http://www.djbassrock.com
http://soundcloud.com/bassrockofficial
https://www.facebook.com/BassrockOfficial
bassrock dance music news donald glaude eden recordings edm electro house


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text:
European Super League Q&A: Why it failed – and will clubs try again?
April 22, 2021 Leave a Comment on European Super League Q&A: Why it failed – and will clubs try again?
'I don't think that project is now still up and running' – Agnelli on ESL
It has been an extraordinary few days in European football.
The biggest clubs on the continent quit the Champions League, then returned, humiliated and apologetic in fewer than 48 hours.
In between they were hit with a whirlwind of vitriol, the anger and criticism coming in wave after wave. Eventually it was too much, and the project crumbled.
So, where did it all go wrong, what happens now and are the issues that led to the creation of the ESL now solved? BBC Sport picks through the incredible events of the past few days.
It would be naive to think discussions around a European Super League (ESL) have not been happening for some considerable time.
It was also fairly obvious criticism would swiftly follow the announcement of a proposed competition of this sort.
Given that backdrop, a swift, positive message had to be delivered early to counter the negativity.
Instead, after the first rumours began to surface on Thursday and then the first reports were published on Sunday lunchtime, there was nothing official from the Super League camp until 23:11 BST later that day. Then, Real Madrid president and proposed Super League chairman Florentino Perez gave an interview with a Spanish media outlet in the early hours.
There were no more statements or interviews given by executives of the 12 clubs prior to project collapsing on Tuesday night.
Instead, the vacuum was filled with negativity – from fans, media, players and managers.
Even Prime Ministers and Presidents condemned it, as did Prince William. There was no attempt other than from Perez to explain what the 12 clubs viewed as the positives. By Monday evening, the narrative was set and it already felt impossible to change it.
Has it gone away?
John Barnes: "The winner is the status quo which has been exploiting football for years"
Doubtful – for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, the underlying reasons for the 12 clubs' disenchantment remain. They do not like how Uefa runs the Champions League and do not think it delivers enough high-quality games in a digital media age.
Secondly, while this week has been a resounding success for Uefa and its president Aleksander Ceferin, as Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola outlined in a passionate press conference on Tuesday, there are major issues around the fixture calendar.
The solidarity payments Uefa is so keen to highlight have distorted many leagues across Europe and affected competition, to the benefit of those clubs who play more often in European competition.
If the Super League clubs came up with a proper plan to address this and then promise to fund it – and they are adamant they could make more money from broadcast revenue than Uefa, so they should have the finance to do it – then tinker with their concept to allow access from those not originally in the league, it would give substance to Perez's assessment that the competition would "save football".
How much damage to relationships must the 12 clubs repair?
Liverpool owner John W Henry apologises in message to fans
There is no doubt some substantial repair work needs to be done, both at European and domestic level.
Trust has been broken, especially by people like Juventus chairman Andrea Agnelli and Manchester United executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward, who were instrumental in shaping the Champions League reforms only to walk away 24 hours before they were set in stone.
However, Ceferin has set the tone for what is likely to follow.
Ceferin may have called Agnelli "a liar and a snake" on Monday but by the early hours of Wednesday morning his tone was more conciliatory.
"It is admirable to admit a mistake but they are back in the fold now and I know they have a lot to offer," he said.
The brutal truth is, without these 12 clubs the Champions League loses much of its veneer.
It is the same with the Premier League and the six English clubs.
You only have to read the words of Aston Villa chief executive Christian Purslow on Tuesday when asked by the BBC if clubs could be thrown out of the Premier League: "In theory they could but no-one wants to perform an act of self-harm."
There may be some grovelling involved and the swagger may diminish for a time, but the 12 clubs still have power through popularity and status – and they know it.
Who has the power in Europe now?
Both Ceferin and Fifa counterpart Gianni Infantino have emerged stronger by attacking a concept that very quickly failed.
Whether that co-operation, first in evidence at the start of the pandemic when football stopped, continues remains to be seen – because Infantino wants to progress with his expanded Club World Cup model.
Uefa has been uneasy about that prospect because it could undermine the popularity of the Champions League.
On a club level, Paris St-Germain, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund can occupy the moral high ground after rejecting ESL's overtures.
The power of football supporters was clear on Tuesday as Chelsea fans gathered outside Stamford Bridge to protest against their club signing up to play in the ESL
Indeed, PSG have gone from being one of the game's most-criticised clubs – due to their massive spending which some argue was the catalyst for financial issues affecting the rest of the game – to one of those being praised.
PSG president Nasser Al-Khelaifi has consolidated his position within the ECA and Uefa, when rival clubs in England, Spain and Italy remain on the outside looking in.
Al-Khelaifi has taken over as chairman of ECA, a position of major influence.
And former Manchester United goalkeeper and current Ajax chief executive Edwin van der Sar also emerges with his reputation enhanced. That could be crucial in the battle to get more power for Europe's second-tier leagues.
Will any owners of the 12 clubs sell up now?
A very good question but one that really only relates to some of the English clubs and both Milan teams, partly because in Spain there are presidential elections and the clubs are owned by fans.
The Agnelli family has controlled Juventus for nearly 100 years so they are unlikely to move out.
At Manchester City, the owners are not motivated by financial rewards so, in a sense, they missed a chance for positive publicity by joining the Super League in the first place.
Mural of Juventus chairman Andrea Agnelli on a wall behind the headquarters of the Italian FA in Rome
The status of the Suning Group as owners of Inter Milan was uncertain anyway owing to their financial issues in China and this news will not have helped.
For AC Milan, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United – who all have American owners – and to some extent, Tottenham, the situation is less clear.
Developments over the past few days have cut off a potentially very lucrative revenue stream.
It could be that the respective owners shrug their shoulders and proceed as before, or they revisit the plans at some point in the future and present them in a more palatable form. Or, they feel they have maximised their investment and look to get out.
In the latter situation though, there are only a limited number of buyers given the price tags attached to the clubs.
And, as Mike Ashley discovered in his attempts to sell Newcastle in 2020, there are areas of the world where potential purchasers exist and have the resource to fund the deal, but for non-footballing reasons they are unacceptable as owners of famous sporting organisations.
The 'new' Champions League
Amid the back-slapping from those who feel the big clubs have been stopped in their tracks, it is worth remembering there were a couple of major changes to the Champions League from 2024 agreed by Uefa this week that will work in favour of the established elite.
Firstly, the tournament itself will be expanded by four teams.
One of these slots will go to the third-placed team in the fifth-ranked league in Uefa's list – currently France.
Two will go to the sides with the highest club co-efficient who are in European slots but fail to qualify for the Champions League, regardless of where they finish in their domestic leagues.
On Monday, Leeds players wore T-shirts opposed to the Super League
If the system was in operation now, Borussia Dortmund would get a 'wild card' and so would Liverpool, even though they are behind West Ham in the Premier League. West Ham would go into the Europa League.
Secondly, instead of eight groups of four, as we have now, the 36 teams will be ranked according to their results in 10 games against individual opponents of different strengths.
The top eight clubs go straight into the last 16, the teams ranked nine to 24 enter a two-legged play-off.
This system should provide a greater number of 'quality' matches. It will certainty create a greater number of matches as teams will play as many as 19 games to reach the final, rather than 13 in the present format.
What about Man Utd's Woodward?
On a huge night for football news, confirmation that Ed Woodward will leave his position as executive vice-chairman at the end of 2021 should not be ignored.
Debate will run around whether he is paying the price for Super League's failure or he had reached the decision anyway, as a number of sources have told BBC Sport.
Beyond question is that Woodward's exit will take United into unchartered territory.
Ed Woodward has been executive vice-chairman at Manchester United since 2013
It was Woodward who got the Glazer takeover through in 2005 when few felt it was possible.
Then, first as effectively 'chief of staff', then executive vice-chairman, the 49-year-old has worked with Joel and Avram Glazer extensively to execute the commercial revolution which has made them and United huge amounts of money.
At the same time, Woodward has taken a lot of criticism for the club's failure to maintain the high standards of the Sir Alex Ferguson era when he replaced David Gill in the chief executive role in 2013.
It will be interesting to see whether Woodward stays in football or returns to the financial world.
But more importantly for United, will the Glazer family replace Woodward with an in-house appointment, in which case managing director Richard Arnold would be the early favourite, or will they look externally?
This will have a significant impact on day-to-day operations at Old Trafford given Woodward has appointed and stuck by manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and also installed John Murtough as United's first football director last month.
What do the clubs think now?
Speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish said: "It has removed the biggest cloud hanging over football for the past 10 years.
"We have lived under the constant threat that this will happen and it has caused immeasurable damage already. We need massive reform at Uefa. These guys have infiltrated the top of our sport and they have had too much influence.
"Uefa should be running European football for the benefit of the game. The champions of the Netherlands, Belgium and Poland have to qualify in the summer for the right to get to the group stages, while still on the table is a proposal that a team finishing seventh in the Premier League may be able to leapfrog an Aston Villa or a Leicester in fifth and play ahead of them.
"Still on the table today is a 30% distribution of money based on their history in favour of these guys. We are sick of hearing about preferential votes, about preferential distribution of money and of preferential qualification.
"Of course there is a way back. We need to solve the disconnect. The fans have made it clear, we must separate the people from the great clubs we are proud to have in our league. These are the big flag carriers in our league and of course we want them back onside.
"There will be a healing process. It is one club one vote, nobody is bigger than the game. We need to have a big moment where we sit down and never see anything like this again. Nobody really in this industry wants government involvement but that is where we find ourselves.
"We need to accept we need to get our house in order if we don't want that to happen. I do think this is a one off and that we will look back and think this is an incredibly positive day for the game we love and for the dream of every supporter to continue to be alive.
"This is a moment for a massive catalyst for change. The battle is won but the war is yet to be won."
Big Dog's Backyard Ultra: The toughest, weirdest race you've never heard of
Tokyo Olympics: GB's Giles Scott wins Finn class, gold in men's 49er & silver in mixed Nacra 17


(it may require a bit of patience).
We designed the gorgeous Wishful Thinking scarf with a Japanese legend in mind. It is believed that anyone who folds a thousand origami cranes will be granted a wish by the gods, so we spared you the effort and came up with this visually chal- lenging scarf featuring mesmerizing multicolour geometric shapes.
Combining the meticulosity of origami, the grace of the crane and the many symbols behind it (fidelity, longevity, good fortune), this scarf is a fantastic fashion accessory to wear on repeat.


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text:
/* eslint-disable camelcase */
import * as types from './mutation-types';

export const getGuests = ({commit}) => {
  fetch(`/api/guest/all`, {
    method: 'GET'
  })
  .then(response => response.json())
  .then(json => commit(types.GET_GUESTS, json));
};

export const updateGuest = ({commit}, guest) => {
  guest['lastUpdate'] = new Date();
  fetch(`/api/guest/autosave`, {
    method: 'POST',
    headers: {
      'Accept': 'application/json, text/plain, */*',
      'Content-Type': 'application/json'
    },
    body: JSON.stringify(guest)
  })
  .then(response => response.json())
  .then(json => commit(types.UPDATE_GUEST, json));
};

export const createGuest = ({commit}, guest) => {
  guest['creationDate'] = new Date();
  fetch(`/api/guest/create`, {
    method: 'POST',
    headers: {
      'Accept': 'application/json, text/plain, */*',
      'Content-Type': 'application/json'
    },
    body: JSON.stringify(guest)
  });
};

export const deleteGuest = ({commit}, guest) => {
  fetch(`/api/guest/delete`, {
    method: 'POST',
    headers: {
      'Accept': 'application/json, text/plain, */*',
      'Content-Type': 'application/json'
    },
    body: JSON.stringify(guest)
  })
  .then(response => response.json())
  .then(json => commit(types.DELETE_GUEST, json));
};


I hate to admit it…my one of my guilty pleasures is the kardashian/jenner clan (except Kim, I really don't like her style or what we see of her personality). And well, Kylie Jenner has been on everyone's radar for a couple of reasons…including her now super sized lips. But let's not get into that (okay okay I'll tell you what I think haha. I think she photoshops her pictures and overdraws her lips; I don't think it's fillers or botox. I found an article that compares her Instagram pictures to actual pictures of that day…and, her lips look completely different!). Back to the fashion, I actually really like her style..I've been trying to do a celebrity inspired post of Kylie for a while- so here it is!!
I originally wanted to do her edgier/day-to-day looks, but I had similar pieces to this one. This look has Monica Rose written all over it (just in case you didn't know, Monica is the Kardashian's stylist and she is AMAZING). I did a breakdown of her pieces vs. my items below but as you can see my total look is around 20 times more affordable (and I'm even wearing a coat and everything).
Creo que varias veces he admitido que soy culpable de que las Kardashians/Jenner ya vayan por su décima temporada en la televisión. Personalmente creo que el show y todo sería mejor sin Kim…pero bueno, esa es otra historia. Ultimamente, Kylie ha estado en muchísimas noticias de farándula por …si, sus labios. Tanto ella como su familia dicen que no se ha inyectado los labios, que es solo maquillaje….yo personalmente no creo que se haya operado, pero si creo que altera las fotos con photoshop. Hace poco encontré un artículo que compara fotos de ella en eventos con las que ella pone en su Instagram…y es impresionante, parecen dos personas distintas. Pero bueno, volvamos a lo que es MODA.
Llevo tiempo queriendo hacer un look por menos de Kylie porque me gusta mucho su estilo casual y un poco edgy (aunque justamente escogí uno que es totalmente lo contrario). Si no me equivoco, Monica Rose fue la estilista de este loo (que por cierto, si no siguen a la estilista de las Kardashians- haganlo, ella es increíble). Abajo les puse una comparación del costo por pieza y el total tanto de su look como del mío… y la diferencia es muchísima (mi look cuesta 20 veces menos que el de ella…y eso que estoy usando una chaqueta, por eso es que no es tan económico).
Comenten abajo si quieren ver más look por memo de celebridades; y si ese es el caso, recomienden celebridades y looks específicos que les gustaría ver ... y con mucho gusto los tomaré en cuenta! BESOS!!!
Love your top, Kylie has such an awesome style. I can't believe her outfit is more than $6,000!!
I know right! I couldn't believe the price of her Louboutin heels!!
Me too! She used to update her blog more often but she is still amazing!.. and thanks babe!
You look amazing, love. Gorgeous coat!
Guau te queda genial su estilo! Me encantan todas las prendas que llevas!
Looking beautiful!! Love the shoes and pants :)!
I have done Olivia Palermo a couple of times! I LOVE LOVE LOVE HER!
Totally loving your take on this look. That jacket is phenomenal!
Isn't it!? I absolutely love BB Dakota, the quality is great and the price point is pretty good too!
hey hun!! that means so much! <3 I tried my best!
You're a QUEEN! I love that you did the breakdown to show us that you do not need to break the bank to look equally (in your case more) fabulous!
hey linda!!! Oh yeah,…ALL the things we could get with those $6k right hahaha love ya!
Yes, I love her style! <3 definitely doing one of her edgier looks too!
One of the downsides of being famous is that folks pay far more attention to you than they should. I've heard a famous person saying that he didn't need it and didn't want it.


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text:
Beep to Supply Autonomous Shuttles in Yellowstone National Park
October 29, 2020 • by Staff • Bookmark +
Beep will work in concert with both NPS Park Planning, Facilities and Lands Directorate, the Department of Transportation, and Yellowstone National Park to plan, deploy, and operate two autonomous shuttles in the Canyon Village.
Photo via Pxfuel.
Beep, a Florida-based autonomous Mobility-as-a-Service provider, will deploy its first autonomous shuttles at Yellowstone National Park with the National Parks Service (NPS) in May 2021.
The pilot program will test multi-passenger, electric automated vehicle platforms to provide visitors a safe, innovative and eco-friendly transportation alternative while exploring Yellowstone.
Beep will work in concert with both NPS Park Planning, Facilities and Lands Directorate, the Department of Transportation, and Yellowstone National Park to plan, deploy, and operate two autonomous shuttles in the Canyon Village. Exact shuttle stops, route locations and distance will be determined jointly between Beep and the NPS.
According to a press release by Yellowstone National Park, the initiative is part of the Yellowstone Visitor Use Management Program, which is focused on testing a range of pilot projects around the park to enhance the visitor experience.
"It's an honor to be the first in the country to provide autonomous shuttles to the NPS and its visitors," Joe Moye, Beep CEO, said in a statement. "Yellowstone's Visitor Use Management Program aligns with Beep's mission to provide alternative, sustainable, and innovative transportation solutions meant to transform and improve mobility for all. This demonstration will help assess how emerging technologies can enhance the visitor experience while making the roads safer and less congested for everyone."
During the deployment, Beep will provide a full suite of services for the pilot including the autonomous vehicles, engineering, and mapping of the routes, complete operational, monitoring, and management for regular oversight and to support ridership demand. By utilizing 100% electric autonomous shuttles that will have zero emissions, the deployment aligns with the park's priority to improve visitor safety, access, and experience.
The pilot will be supported and monitored by an onboard shuttle specialist, on the ground staff and Beep's Global Command Center to ensure safe and reliable operation.
Related: Jacksonville Receives Custom Autonomous Vehicle From Beep, Local Motors, and Robotic Research
Originally posted on Fleet Forward
Read more about Beep Autonomous Vehicles Autonomous Technology


text:
After laughing off Boehner, will Obama delay immigration action?
No one believes immigration reform will pass Congress anytime soon. The question is whether Obama acts now or after the midterms in November.
People show their support during a rally for comprehensive immigration reform on the West Front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington D.C., April 10, 2013.
Sept. 4, 2014, 3:18 PM UTC
In "Peanuts," Lucy assures Charlie Brown that this time, she won't pull the football away at the last moment. Poor Charlie always falls for the trick, ending up on his backside.
It was hard not to think of the animated scene yesterday, as House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said Congress might "do immigration reform in a responsible way next year," and this time he won't pull the football away at the last minute, just so long as President Obama doesn't take matters into his own hands through executive actions.
If the embattled Speaker hoped everyone involved in the debate would laugh uproariously at him, his comments were a striking success. It was Boehner and his House Republican caucus, after all, who killed immigration reform without a coherent explanation. Why in the world would anyone expect conditions to be different in 2015? The Speaker didn't say.
But on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue in our nation's capital, there's a more serious debate underway. Benjy Sarlin reported overnight:
As the White House debates whether to go forward with major executive action on immigration, supporters of reform are torn over whether to accept a potential delay until after the midterm elections. President Obama said in June that he would take unilateral steps to revamp the immigration system by the end of the summer. Recently, however, he said that the administration's ongoing efforts to deal with a wave of Central America minors at the border could alter his timeline. "There is the chance that it could be before the end of the summer, there is the chance that it could be after the summer," White House press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters on Tuesday.
This was not the first hint of a possible delay. Though many were preoccupied with the color of his suit, President Obama also said in his press conference last week, in response to a question about immigration, "I've been very clear about the fact that our immigration system is broken and needs to be fixed. And my preference continues to be that Congress act. I don't think anybody thinks that Congress is going to act in the short term, but hope springs eternal that after the midterm elections they may act."
It was the first real, direct-from-the-president evidence that an announcement is no longer imminent.
So what's behind the apparent intra-Democratic debate?
The argument from Senate Democrats, which has reportedly proven persuasive to some in the West Wing, is that a brief delay would help vulnerable Dem incumbents. For Senate Dems in tough re-election fights, especially in the South, there's no upside to putting them on the spot, the argument goes, while simultaneously motivating far-right fury within the Republican base.
Note, these Democrats aren't urging Obama to scrap plans for executive actions; they're arguing that an announcement after the elections might give them a hand. The question isn't whether Obama will act, so much as it's a choice of when the president will act: mid-September or mid-November.
Many of the most enthusiastic reform proponents, meanwhile, are pushing hard in the opposite direction. The sooner the White House acts, they argue, the more it benefits undocumented immigrants who've waited too long already.
From where I sit, both sides of this debate -- executive action now vs. execution action a couple of months from now -- have credible points and I don't have an especially strong opinion about who's correct. So long as the action is on the way, the qualitative difference between September and November is probably minimal.
That said, I'd just add that if Obama does delay action until after the midterms, the odds of Republicans shutting down the government again will go down. Something to keep an eye on.


text:
package me.allevato.graph.search;

import java.util.ArrayList;
import java.util.Stack;
import java.util.Vector;

import me.allevato.graph.nav.NavEdge;
import me.allevato.graph.nav.NavGraph;

/**
 * Depth-first graph search. Creates long winding paths, although they will eventually find the target.
 * @author adam
 *
 * @param <GraphType> the type of graph to search
 */
public class SearchDFS<GraphType extends NavGraph> {
	int start;
	int goal;
	GraphType graph;
	Vector<Integer> path;
	public ArrayList<Integer> visited = new ArrayList<Integer>();

	public SearchDFS(GraphType g, int s, int go) {
		graph = g;
		goal = go;
		start = s;
		path = new Vector<Integer>(g.getNumNodes());
	}

	public boolean search() {
		int current = start;
		path.add(current);
		NavEdge nextEdge;

		visited = new ArrayList<Integer>();
		Stack<NavEdge> frontier = new Stack<NavEdge>();
		frontier.add(new NavEdge(start, start, 0.d));

		while(!frontier.isEmpty()) {
			while(frontier.peek().getSource() != path.get(path.size()-1)) {
				path.remove(path.size()-1);
			}
			nextEdge = frontier.pop();
			if(visited.contains(nextEdge.getDest())) {
				continue;
			}
			current = nextEdge.getDest();
			visited.add(current);
			//System.out.println("edge " + nextEdge.getId() + " from node " + nextEdge.getSource() + " to " + nextEdge.getDest());
			path.add(current);
			if(current == goal) {
				return true;
			}
			frontier.addAll((graph.getIndexedEdges()).elementAt(current));
		}

		return false;
	}

	public int getStart() {
		return start;
	}

	public void setStart(int start) {
		this.start = start;
	}

	public int getGoal() {
		return goal;
	}

	public void setGoal(int goal) {
		this.goal = goal;
	}

	public Vector<Integer> getPath() {
		return path;
	}

	public void setPath(Vector<Integer> path) {
		this.path = path;
	}
}


text:
Troia Roman Ruins
Troia Walking trails
Sport Fields
Football Training Centre
#LivingTroia
Troia Portugal Blog
Troia Land Houses
Ácala Apartments
Marina Apartments
Tax System in Portugal
In Troia you may choose between two tracks that will help you to discover Troia in a unique way.
Caldeira and Pine Forest Trail
This trail takes you through two different environments: the Caldeira lagoon and the surrounding pine forest.
Caldeira is a lagoon which fills up and empties twice a day with the tide, unveiling the wetland and muddy bottoms. It is an area of great value that provides food and shelter to many species of waterfowl, such as the sanderling, bar-tailed godwit, herons and mergansers.
The wetlands, typical of estuaries in mild climates, are the basis of complex and varied food webs; they play a very important role in cleaning the water and preserving biodiversity.
The pine forest encompasses the oldest dunes in Tróia. It is mostly composed of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) and stone pine (Pinus pinea), but also includes plants like pistacia lentiscus, armeria maritima and corema album. The juniper (Juniperus turbinata and J. navicularis), lichens, the Linaria ficalhoana and Ionopsidium acaule, two small rare plants which grow here, must be noted.
DOWNLOAD: CALDEIRA AND PINE FOREST TRAIL
Beach and Dune Trail
Over 60 kilometers of sandy beach extending from Troia to Sines, shaped by the waves and wind, is indeed a long stretch of sand. The trail will take you first along the beach and then through the dunes.
If you are lucky you may even watch flocks of small birds – the sanderlings (Calidris alba) – they run along the sandy beaches as the water retreats, stopping frequently to pick up small food items. These small birds which we see in Troia in winter migrate north in spring, to the Arctic Circle, to nest. This is the bird species that migrate farthest north.
By the breaking waves, the first colonising plants can be found, such as the European searocket (Cakile maritima). On the embryonic dune, we find the Elymus farctus, the Eryngium maritimum and the Otanthus maritimus, which hold the sand blown by wind. Next come the primary dunes, with tall ridges and only a few years of life, covered in Ammophila arenaria. Further back, the secondary dunes (which are several decades old) are rich in aromatic shrubs, such as the Helichrysum stoechas and the Ononis ramosissima. Further inland, the older dunes are covered in larger shrubs, such as the Lygos monosperma.
DOWNLOAD: BEACH AND DUNE TRAIL
Email: welcome@troiaresort.pt
Troia Resort
7570-789 Carvalhal GDL | Portugal
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Unic Press UK: Global growth which softened to 3.6 percent in 2018 is projected to further fall to 3.3 percent in 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic Counsellor and the head of the IMF's Research Department, Gita Gopinath said Wednesday during a press conference.
The IMF team during the press conference were the Economic Counsellor and the head of the IMF's Research Department, Gita Gopinath and the Deputy Director of the IMF's Research Department, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and the head of the division in charge of the World Economic Outlook in the Research Department, Oya Celasun.
Question – As you said, the recovery you are predicting for the global economy is precarious, and there are many risks around. How much ammunition do you think there is left in monetary policy to address the risks if they do come to pass? And how big should any coordinated fiscal stimulus be, which you have mentioned right at the end, again, if it is needed?
Ms. Gopinath – Our baseline forecasts are for global growth to recover in 2020, but, indeed, this is precarious, and there are serious downside risks. Monetary policy space varies across countries in the world. For many advanced economies it remains limited, and we would expect to see unconventional monetary policy tools being used, for instance, in the euro area. Now, on the plus side, inflation pressures stay low, so there is a possibility for monetary policy to be even more accommodative. On the fiscal side, again this is going to be very country-specific because it depends upon the fiscal space that countries have. If the downturn turns out to be much more severe than what is in our baseline projection, we would expect a synchronization in fiscal spending because that would be more effective given that it would be better in terms of boosting confidence, and also it would mitigate some of the negative spillovers from imports. But that said, the actual magnitude of that is going to depend on the circumstances and going to depend on the country.
Question – Because of this trade war, there was a concern that a currency war could take place, but that did not really happen. Of course, emerging market currencies witnessed some pressure. The Indian rupee depreciated a lot. Do you think in this globally connected world, this currency war situation is a real possibility, or it is losing relevance?
Ms. Gopinath – In the early part of 2018, we did see in response to a combination of factors, not just trade tensions but also the increase in oil prices, that several emerging markets faced pressure on their currency. The volatility of the exchange rates will remain in the event of further downside risks being realized. The question of what would be the impact of exchange rates on trade, I think what we have to keep in mind is that exchange rate movements are driven a lot by monetary policy in different countries and driven a lot by financial risks, and so it is very hard to pin down the direction of exchange rates for any of these regions going forward. What we have seen is that with the more accommodative stance in monetary policy in many of the major [central] banks, we have certainly seen emerging market currencies strengthening relative to the US dollar somewhat partially; and as long as things stay relatively stable, that trend might persist.
Question – What is your view about Italy, high debt and very, very low growth; and do you think that Italy is a risk factor for the international economy? And the Italian government would be introduced a flat tax in Italian economy. What is your opinion about this? Thank you.
Ms. Gopinath – The second half of 2018 was particularly weak for Italy. Italy was in a recession, and that weakness carries over into 2019. The concerns that remain have to do with the high levels of debt, with the high levels of sovereign borrowing costs, banks' costs of borrowing; and all of this is reflected in weaker investment in Italy. So these are risks to keep in mind, especially given that growth in Italy is weak, not just in real terms but in nominal terms, which means that we are projecting debt as a ratio of GDP to increase in Italy going forward. To your question about the flat tax, we would have to wait to see what the details are about the particular nature of that tax before we can comment on it.
Question – I have a question about trade deal. How do you see the US-China trade conflicts impacting the global economy, and if they reach a deal, how do you see the significance to the world economy? Thank you.
Ms. Gopinath – The escalation of trade tensions between the US and China was certainly one of the important factors weighing on growth towards the end of 2018. We have certainly seen a truce, and we have certainly seen negotiations going on, and we hope that there will be an agreement soon. The nature of the agreement is unclear. We will have to wait to see what the specific details are going to be, but as we have said on many occasions, any improvement on trade relations, multilateral cooperation on this front, making sure that there is some sort of a durable resolution of trade uncertainty, would all be very positive for global growth.
Question – I want to know your outlook for Mexico now that we have a new President that has different ways to [manage] the economy. Thank you.
Ms. Gopinath – With Mexico, we have revised down our growth for Mexico for both the 2019 to 2020, this is both relative to last October and last January. There is a combination of factors for this. One, monetary policy has been tighter than previously expected, and the second has to do with policy uncertainty around policies of the new government, which is weighing on investment. So this would continue to be a factor. Especially the policy uncertainty will continue to be an important factor going forward for the growth outlook for Mexico. I am going to hand it over to Gian Maria.
Mr. Milesi-Ferretti – Yes, clearly Mexico has also been affected over the past couple of years by the trade tensions with the United States. Those have been mostly resolved, but the trade agreement is not ratified. That had resulted in exchange rate pressures, in turn leading to a tighter monetary policy, which is one of the factors that has been weighing on economic growth. But clearly uncertainty is an important factor, both, also on the domestic front, as Gita has just stressed.
Question – You have some Brexit alternative scenarios in your WEO which talk about quite a significant deviation downwards from the baseline. How serious do you think the risks are from a no-deal Brexit, and what would the consequences of it be?
Ms. Gopinath – The situation clearly is in flux, as we all know, on a daily basis, so it is hard to predict where all of this will end up. What we have seen is that we have seen the negative consequences of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, which has weighed on investment in the UK and is one of the factors for our downward revision of growth for 2019 for the UK.
Question – You have cut .6 percent your forecast for Latin America for this year. Both Brazil and Mexico forecasts have been revised down, and the situation in Venezuela just keeps getting worse. So what is your overall opinion on the region? Thank you.
Ms. Gopinath – So the region as a whole, the last half of 2018 was weak, and a lot of that is carrying over into 2019, so we have revised our estimates down for Brazil and for Mexico. Of course, the reasons are different in both cases. In the case of Mexico, it is a combination of policy uncertainty and monetary policy tightening. In Brazil, it is tied to policy uncertainty and about the postponement of the reforms on the fiscal front. For Venezuela, of course, it is a great humanitarian crisis, social economic crisis, and we are seeing a very major contraction for Venezuela. Oya, if you would like to add something.
Ms. Celasun – As Gita said, for Venezuela it is very hard to make predictions at this point. It is a humanitarian crisis, food crisis, medicine crisis. One worries that oil production is plummeting, and that has led to our downgrade for this country.
Question – Can you talk a little bit more about your forecast for the US economy? How do you see the sugar high of the fiscal stimulus coming off? And then specifically on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, to what extent do you think their positioning is appropriate. A lot of people have been weighing in on that recently, including the President of the United States.
Ms. Gopinath – So the US economy in our forecast will slow in 2019 and then slow somewhat more in 2020. This is to be expected as the effect of the fiscal stimulus fades, and so that is one of the important reasons for the decline. At the same time, the more accommodative monetary policy stance is helping with growth in 2020.
Question – I am wondering, the trade wars, how is it going to affect Sub-Saharan Africa in 2019?
Ms. Gopinath – For Sub-Saharan Africa, there is an impact that comes from trade wars, but there are also impacts of the trade war on global growth, which then spills over into oil crisis. For instance, for Nigeria, the important price that matters is what is happening to commodity prices; and if because of the trade tensions there is going to be a weakening in global growth, that can have a larger negative effect. Would you like to add something on Sub-Saharan Africa?
Ms. Celasun – Absolutely. It is the commodity prices which are being weakened by somewhat weaker global activity and, directly, demand as well.
Question – You mentioned many risks in the future. What are the main risks for the emerging markets, among them Egypt? Thank you.
Mr. Milesi-Ferretti – Well, trade tensions are clearly one, particularly for the more open economies in the emerging world. It will be a direct effect. There is an indirect effect through market sentiment. We saw towards the beginning, towards the middle of last year, a swing in market sentiment away from emerging economies that has caused substantial outflows, particularly of short-term capital, from more vulnerable economies. Those are clearly very important risks. I think one should also highlight more generally the risk of geopolitical conflict and strife that unfortunately is still affecting a number of countries, particularly in the emerging world, and taking a very heavy toll, first of all, on a humanitarian basis but also in terms of aggregate growth. As Gita just mentioned, of course, for countries more reliant on commodities and, again, those are predominantly in the emerging world, weaker global growth and particularly weaker demand from China could be associated with lower commodity prices, which could put additional stress on current accounts, on public finances, of many emerging economies. This is just a few of the potential downside risks that we could see.
Question – Ms. Gopinath, when you list the factors that have contributed to the significant weakening of the global economy and of trade, how would you apportion that? Is it primarily US-China trade and tariffs that have led to that deceleration?
Ms. Gopinath – The US-China trade tension is a contributory factor, but there have been other factors. For instance, in China for much of 2018, the bigger factor was the tightening in credit that was needed because there needed to be greater regulation of the shadow banking sector. So for much of 2018, that was the driver for China. The trade conflict plays out only pretty much towards the end of 2018. The other important factors have been also country-specifics, so for Germany the decline had to do with the auto sector, with the new emission standards there. You had in Japan, you had a few disasters, natural disasters, and that weighed on growth, too. But the general sentiment and the concerns about the trade conflict have weighed on confidence, on business confidence, on consumer confidence, and that has affected more countries than just the two over here. So I think that is an important factor to keep in mind, especially in terms of, as I mentioned before, that there needs to be a durable solution to the trade tensions and to ensure that it does not escalate into other sectors.
Question – Ms. Gopinath, could you give us a little sense about how important the social security is now in Brazil, because you mentioned that one of the reasons of the downgrade of the Brazilian projection from 2.5 to 2.1 this year is a kind of postponement of this fiscal reform. In your projections for Brazil, the present economy, 2019-2020, do you consider that the social security reform is going to be approved by the Congress this year?
Ms. Gopinath – Firstly, it is very important to have the right level of social security for the most vulnerable population in any country. It, of course, has to be fiscally prudent, and in the case of Brazil, it is, indeed, the case that the debt levels are somewhat unsustainable, and so pension reforms would be required. That got postponed some into 2019. It is hard for us to tell the exact date or the time when the implementation will happen, so that is difficult for us to forecast at this point, but we are expecting some resolution in the next year or so.
Ms. Celasun – That is right. We are expecting it to pass sometime in 2019, and what we have done is to shift growth somewhat from 2019 into 2020 on account of that.
Question – You mentioned in the report that China may need to undertake fiscal stimulus to avoid a severe downturn that could derail its reform agenda. How much fiscal stimulus beyond that which is currently contemplated, or at least publicly known to be contemplated, do they need to do, and how critical is the risk of that severe downturn?
Ms. Gopinath – In our forecast, we expect China to continue to slow. It is a gradual weakening of growth, but this is to be expected. It is a needed transition from a very high growth, investment-driven, credit boom-driven growth, towards one that is more sustainable and will involve a weakening in credit growth, deleveraging. All of those factors we expect will slow down growth. The Chinese government has put in a substantial amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus already. We are seeing some green shoots there in terms of recovery. If you look at the manufacturing PMI for China, the most recent numbers shows that there has been a recovery there. And so we are seeing positive signs already. What would be needed in a more severe crisis would, of course, depend upon what the nature of the issues are; but the exact numbers would be very hard for us to comment on at this point.
Question – Could you give us an assessment for the Caribbean region, please, and given that most of our economies are tourism dependent. And if you could single out Barbados, who are currently in an IMF program, what is your outlook?
Ms. Celasun – So for the Caribbean, we always have a diversity. We have more commodity-dependent economies than we have economies that are less commodity-dependent, more dependent on tourism. This latter group is doing somewhat better. Their prospects are typically tied to advanced economies, so there has been some softening, but generally growth is stronger. The commodity-dependent ones are still in the process of adjusting to the lower commodity prices, some of them oil prices. For Barbados, we have an IMF program, so the prospects are that activity strengthens somewhat with the buildup of confidence as the program is implemented. It is essential for that to happen to return to positive growth in 2020, that the targets are met and the reforms are steadily implemented.
Question – In your report, you changed significantly your assumptions about Greece's current account deficit. To be precise, now you believe that, according to your report, it will be five times larger than you projected seven months ago. So is this related with the wider environment in the eurozone and the pressures on the exports of the region or have to do with the legacies of the crisis that the country must tackle?
Mr. Milesi-Ferretti – It is a combination of factors. I understand there were some data revisions which also contributed to drive up the current account. We have had a resumption of growth, which is a good thing, but it tends to increase demand for imports. But I think there are literally also statistical issues at play that had to do with data revisions.
Mr. Anspach – Thank you. I am going to take a question online. The question is on the MENA region. Did the IMF revise its growth forecast for the MENA region and the UAE in particular?
Mr. Milesi-Ferretti – So if we compare what we were forecasting in October to what we are forecasting now, we see that particularly for 2019, there is a sizeable difference in the predictions for the oil price. In October, we still, we were expecting based on futures prices, oil prices to be about $70 a barrel. In 2019, they are over $10 lower now. That, of course, implies a downward revision for oil exporters in general. Now you have a bit two categories of oil exporters. You have some that are also suffering from a variety of other factors, including geopolitical tensions and strife. This is clearly not the case for the UAE, but we do have a downward revision which is driven, as I said, by the lower oil price. It is about 1 percentage point, a bit less than 1 percentage point down the revision for 2019, and a little bit less for 2020. So the forecast is for growth to be just below 3 percent for 2019, just about 3 percent in 2020. But, of course, again, oil price agreements to restrain oil production to support prices for 2019 and more generally, weakening of global demand, are the main factors at play.
Question – To what extent do you think financial markets have priced in downside risks associated with climate change and also the kind of weakening of various other environmental systems, or are we facing what some people call a carbon bubble, and to what extent have you accounted for that in the WEO this year?
Ms. Gopinath – Climate change is clearly an important risk. Medium term it seems to be moving up closer and as every month goes by. It is an important risk for low-income countries. In fact, it is one of the risks that we flag that requires addressing urgently. We have seen natural disasters around the world and those are playing out, which are weighing negatively on growth. So this is a very important factor going forward.
Question – I am interested about Central Asia region. What kind of risks or challenges do you see in that region? Thank you.
Mr. Milesi-Ferretti – It is a very differentiated picture in Central Asia, so you have economies like Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan, heavily dependent on oil prices, whose outlook, of course, is heavily affected by what happens to commodity prices. You have economies like Uzbekistan which have a different set of, different type of commodity dependence, more exports of cotton, for instance, but also pretty extensive opening up and reforms of the economy and the growth forecast that hovers around 5 percent so, again, a picture that is quite different across countries and very much dependent on what happens to the price of their main exports as well as to issues of domestic stability and internal, external strife, in some cases.
Question – My question is on Brexit. There was a question before, but I think it is a near-term risk. Let me ask again. There is an analysis on Box 1 and the scenario A and B, moderate scenario and more severe scenario. I do not see the severe case scenario. Can you just explain how much negative impact you would expect? And second question, if I may. Again, I would like to ask your opinion about Modern Monetary Theory, MMT. Thank you very much.
Ms. Gopinath – So on the analysis that we did for Brexit, we looked at two possible no-deal scenarios. The difference across the two had to do with whether in the short term there would be disruptions at the border and how severe any financial disruptions would be. So the scenario B, which is a worse scenario, is one where we do have border disruptions in the short term, and we have more financial stress showing up in higher credit spreads.
To your question on Modern Monetary Theory, we will start by saying that we believe there is a very important role for fiscal policy in macro stabilization for redistribution, for equity considerations, so fiscal policy is a very important part of the toolkit for policymakers. Now, that said, there is no free lunch. There are limits to how much countries can spend. Using money financing to finance fiscal deficits has been tried in the past in many developed countries and in developing countries, and the experience suggests that that usually ends up with uncontrolled inflation, with a collapse in investment, with a collapse in growth. I think it is very important — while fiscal policy is a powerful tool, I think it is very important to be careful about the financing that is used for it. And it is history that has taught us the value of central bank independence to maintain stable economies, and we think that is an important lesson to keep in mind.
Question – Thank you. A bit of a two-part question if I may, the first on monetary policy, the second on fiscal. On the monetary policy side, I think we came into this year expecting to see a quantitative tightening or a resumption of normalization from central banks. As you talked about in your remarks, that has not been seen; and, in fact, we have seen more easing from central banks. And I wonder if in your outlooks, looking forward in terms of 2021 and further than that, how do you factor in the potential strain from the extension of this unorthodox monetary policy that we are seeing continue? The second question on the fiscal side is, we have seen democracies find it harder and harder to pass regulations, to pass things like stimulus. We have also seen an increase in leaders like Lopez Obrador, like Erdogan in Turkey, a couple others, Bolsonaro in Brazil, like you have mentioned. How do those things factor into both your short-term and long-term outlooks?
Ms. Gopinath – So on your question on monetary policy, it is, indeed, the case that there has been a pivot with the Fed with a pause in the expectation of a rate rise in 2019, and so that is an important event that we believe has taken off some of the downside risks that were building up towards the end of 2018, and so the pause, which was data dependent, was welcome. It is, indeed, the case that we have to look forward and see how this plays out. That would again depend upon the data that is coming in. If we do have the recovery that we are projecting by 2020, that could change the policy stance. This policy certainly has led to resumption of capital flows to emerging markets, so there has been a positive impact there. There has been some resumption, not a tremendous resumption, but some resumption. But, again, I think it is important to keep in mind we still live in an environment with high levels of public and private sector debt, so there are financial vulnerabilities that are still there and still building up, which is why our advice is to use macroprudential tools at this stage to make sure that these stay contained. Fiscal policy is a very important part of the assumptions that we make going forward for both the short term and the long term, and it varies across countries. It is country-specific. Some have the space; some do not. Policies vary, but it is a very important part of when we try to make our projections about what is going to happen to growth both in the short term and in the medium term answer.
Question – My question is on Turkey. There are a lot of information around that in the summer, Turkey is going to knock on the door of the IMF. Can you tell us what is your prediction and if the IMF has the money to save Turkey, the Turkish economy?
Ms. Gopinath – We have no reason to think that Turkey is even contemplating coming to the IMF, so that is where we are at this point. The Turkish economy is certainly under stress. They have used monetary policy tightening to contain the effects on inflation and on the exchange rate. We have certainly seen an improvement in their trade balance, so net exports have grown, and this has been mainly driven by a compression in imports and less so by exports in Turkey, so we are seeing some adjustments; but our forecast for Turkey is that this year there would be negative growth, but then we are expecting a recovery in 2020. And, in fact, this recovery is an important part of the element that goes towards the whole global recovery.
Mr. Anspach – With that, I would like to thank you very much for being here. Thank you to the speakers. Tomorrow we have two press conferences, the Global Financial Stability Report and the Fiscal Monitor, so see you tomorrow. Thank you so much.


Production is not expected to resume for several months at Kaiser Aluminum & Chemical Corp.'s Gramercy, La., aluminum refinery after a July 5 explosion in the digester area of the plant injured 24 workers. On July 8, Louisiana's governor declared a state of emergency in St. James Parish, where local authorities are dealing with about 2,000 complaints from residents concerning medical problems and property damage.
The Mine Safety and Health Administration, state police and company investigators are looking into what caused the explosion, which damaged as many as 10 flash tanks where caustic aluminum solution is cooled from 300-degree temperatures needed to "digest" it from bauxite and sodium hydroxide. The blast left the plant inoperable, Kaiser officials said.
Of the injured, six remained hospitalized July 8, with one in critical condition with burn-related injuries. At least 100 area residents, complaining of nausea and breathing problems, were treated at area hospitals after the explosion, which spewed red chemical on houses and cars as far away as a mile.
"Obviously, this is a very sad and unfortunate event," said Ray Milchovich, president and chief operating officer of Kaiser, which has headquarters in Oakland, Calif., and is the nation's fifth-largest aluminum company. "We are taking steps to identify the cause and would hope to learn how to prevent such an accident from ever occurring again."
The plant is one of five in the United States where 3,100 United Steelworkers went on strike Sept. 30, 1998. Kaiser has kept the plants running with management and temporary workers. There was no evidence to indicate that the labor dispute played a part in the explosion, company spokesman Scott Lamb said.
Equipment in the area of the explosion was being operated by employees with extensive experience, Lamb said. Two of the injured were contract workers, and the other four three supervisors with 25 years of experience in that part of the plant and a retired steelworker hired several months ago were Kaiser employees.


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SPILL NEW MUSIC: EDWARD SHARPE AND THE MAGNETIC ZEROS – "NO LOVE LIKE YOURS"
SPILL NEWS: OPERATORS ANNOUNCE DEBUT ALBUM 'BLUE WAVE' OUT WORLDWIDE APRIL 1ST ON LAST GANG
SPILL NEWS: FILTER ANNOUNCE "MAKE AMERICA HATE AGAIN" TOUR
EDWARD SHARPE AND THE MAGNETIC ZEROS – "NO LOVE LIKE YOURS"
NEW ALBUM PersonA OUT APRIL 15TH VIA COMMUNITY MUSIC
Edward Sharpe and The Magnetic Zeros announce the release date of their 4th LP PersonA via Community Music. The ten song set will be available on April 15th. The first single "No Love Like Yours" is available for streaming on Soundcloud.
Singer Alex Ebert says, "We had long been a social experiment first, musicians second. Over time, though, we were emerging, by virtue of hours spent, into a group of musicians who could really play together." The shift is tangible in the band's latest LP.
Recording the music almost entirely in one room together in New Orleans, their approach was a far cry from the ramshackle, come-one-come-all production audible on recordings of their previous albums.
April 17 – Coachella Valley Music & Arts Festival
(Community Music)
PersonA TRACK LISTING:
1. Hot Coals
2. Uncomfortable
3. Somewhere
4. No Love Like Yours
5. Wake Up The Sun
6. Free Stuff
7. Let It Down
8. Perfect Time
9. Lullaby
10. The Ballad of Yaya
BAND LINKS:
community musicedward sharpe and the magnetic zerosnew musicno love like yourspersona
community music, edward sharpe and the magnetic zeros, new music, no love like yours, persona
SPILL NEW MUSIC
SPILL NEW MUSIC strives to keep our readers up-to-date with new releases by your favourite artists, keeping you informed of new album, single, and video releases. Stay tuned -- who knows, you might just discover your new favourite band.
community musicedward sharpe and the magnetic zerosnew music
SPILL ALBUM REVIEW: EDWARD SHARPE & THE MAGNETIC ZEROS – PERSONA
by Dylan Weller on April 15, 2016
Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros PersonA Community Music/Fontana North Edward Sharpe & the Magnetic Zeros has dropped its fourth Album, PersonA, following its previously self-titled release three years prior. This Californian Indie, [...]


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Commentary: So, what's next on guns?
By Lyle Denniston
on Jun 26, 2008 at 3:22 pm
If the Supreme Court's historic ruling on gun rights brings about, as the dissenters said, "a dramatic upheaval in the law," perhaps that was enough of a task to perform for one day. And, in fact, Justice Antonin Scalia's opinion for the Court conceded that the ruling in District of Columbia v. Heller was but a first step, saying: "Since this case represents this Court's first in-depth examination of the Second Amendment, one should not expect it to clarify the entire field."  And it definitely did not.
Still, it is remarkable how much was left undecided, and, therefore, how wide-ranging the post-Heller litigation is going to be. It is already apparent, from comments that the National Rifle Association was circulating among the news media Thursday, that the Nation will not have to wait long for those lawsuits — probably a flood of them — to begin. Justice Stephen G. Breyer's dissenting opinion lists a wide array of gun control laws now in force that, one suspects, the NRA will soon challenge. Breyer, in fact, suggests that "the decision threatens to throw into doubt the constitutionality of gun laws throughout the United States."
In the omitted or otherwise unaddressed facets of the ruling, there is plenty to fill up court dockets from here on.
Before proceeding to the more substantial of these, it is worth noting that the Court did not even say why it had authority to hear and decide this case. It did not say, for example, why the District of Columbia — a governmental oddity that is neither a state nor a branch of the federal government — is subject to the strictures of the Second Amendment. That was a seriously debated issue when this case was in the D.C. Circuit Court, but the Supreme Court does not even mention it. The opinion also does not decide, explicitly, why Washington security guard Dick Heller had a right to challenge the provisions of the D.C. law that the Court has now struck down — an issue that, in part, divided the Circuit Court (although the District of Columbia in its appeal did not challenge Heller's "standing").
Often, the opening pages of a Supreme Court opinion will address such basic issues, because the Court does not have the authority to simply reach out and decide any question that merely is interesting. But the Scalia opinion provides less than a full page of background on the case, then leaps directly into "the meaning of the Second Amendment."
What emerges thereafter, of course, is not the full meaning of the Second Amendment, but only a beginning slice of that meaning.
It does remove all doubt — and there has been doubt about this for years — that the Amendment means that there is an individual right to have a pistol to keep in one's own home, in operating condition, for purposes of "confrontation" — warding off intruders, or perhaps, aggressive family members.
It also seems to mean (though this is only implicit) that there is, for the first time, a constitutional right to self-defense — or, at least, a common-law right of self-defense that is close to being of constitutional rank.
But, while it is important to have those points clarified for the first time in the 217-year history of the Second Amendment, there remains much still in the realm of the unknown.
First among the open questions, and perhaps one of the most important of them, is whether this ruling applies beyond the federal government and the District of Columbia government (assuming that it is settled that those two entities at least are now covered).
It is absolutely clear that the Bill of Rights' specific guarantees of individual rights do not apply to any level below the federal government — that is, to state, county and city governments — unless the Court has ruled explicitly that they are to apply at those levels by a process that is called "incorporation." The Court has read into the Fourteenth Amendment — an amendment written to restrict state and local government powers — many of the rights in the first ten amendments. That process began in the late 19th Century, and continued up through the first three quarters of the 20th Century.
But the process has not meant a total absorption of the Bill of Rights in the Fourteenth Amendment. The Fifth Amendment right to be charged by a grand jury has not been applied to the states; neither has the Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial in a civil case. And neither has the Second Amendment.
But conservative jurists, like those who made the majority in the Heller case, usually are not fond of lifting parts of the Bill of Rights out for inclusion under the Fourteenth Amendment. Given the glowing rhetoric applied to the virtues of an individual right to have a gun, perhaps that reluctance might be overcome.
If, as expected, the NRA or some other litigant goes after a state or local gun law, relying on the Second Amendment, the Court may well have to answer explicitly whether it applies at all to such laws. Some already are reading the Heller decision to signal a willingness say "yes" to that question; the evidence of that is of an uncertain nature, though.
Second among the issue not resolved Thursday is the standard of review that the Court will apply to judge the constitutionality of any other law that differs, even in a small detail, from the District of Columbia handgun ban that was nullified.  Justice Scalia's opinion definitely rules out mere "rational basis" as the standard that a gun control law would have to satisfy. As most lawyers know, rational basis is enough to uphold a good many laws. The opinion also rules out a test for balancing the interest in having a gun against a government interest in regulating guns. But further than rejecting those two standards, the Scalia opinion does not go. The right, as he describes it, sounds as if it were fundamental in nature, deserving the highest constitutional protection. It does not say that explicitly, however.
Third, there is uncertainy about just why some forms of gun regulation already appear to have passed whatever test the Court did apply, perhaps only temporarily, in Heller. Why does the Amendment not protect, for example, carrying a concealed weapon, as the opinion seems to say? Or, why wouldn't the right apply, as the opinion also seems to imply, to a gun being carried innocently into the Senate Office Building, as a U.S. senator's aide once did? Justice Scalia said justifications for such exceptions will have to wait.
Fourth, the Court opts not to rule on whether laws requiring a license to have a gun, even to have it only at home, so that part of the District of Columbia law survives — but perhaps only until the next test case. The NRA surely would not leave licensing controls in repose.
Fifth, what kinds of guns does one have a constitutional right to possess, even if that right is limited to one's own home? The opinion gives some hints — "weapons typically possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes" — but the most that one can say with confidence is that pistols, easily loaded and easily handled, are definitely within the right of possession, in operable condition in the home, for self-defense. Is a rifle something one can constitutionally have at home, even though not readily useable if one is suddenly attacked? Or a repeating pistol? The opinion does not say for sure.
Sixth, does a gun owner carry the constitutional right with him (or her) when he leaves the house or the apartment? The right explicitly recognized in the Heller decision is strictly confined to "hearth and home." Does that include the front porch, a balcony, the yard, the front sidewalk, the street, the neighborhood? The Court does not set the limits.
As Justice Scalia's opinion said in closing, "there will be time enough to expound upon" what was not decided Thursday. And, no doubt, that time is coming soon.
Cases: District of Columbia v. Heller