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Stakeholder Newsletter
14 things we thought were worth sharing:
Port Hardy to host Tourism Vancouver Island's 2018 Annual Conference & AGM
Port Hardy, located in the heart of Vancouver Island North, the upper third of North America's largest island, is unspoiled and largely undiscovered. It offers a breathtaking palette of parks, forests, lakes, saltwater inlets and jigsaw-puzzle coastline. Black bears forage for berries, whales splash at sea and eagles glide overhead. From remarkable coastal shorelines to the vast watery depths of the Pacific, Port Hardy has all the ingredients for the perfect wilderness adventure. Read More
Whether you come to hike the North Coast Trail, paddle along the rocky shores of neighbouring isles and inlets, or catch a salmon of a lifetime, discovering Port Hardy is truly a wonderful experience. Port Hardy's pristine environment serves as a gateway to many outdoor activities for both locals and tourists, including sport fishing, world class scuba diving, caving, kayaking, recreational boating, hiking, and nature viewing.
Our annual conference is the tourism industry event of the year on Vancouver Island! Each year 150+ delegates from all areas of our industry convene in one region to network, educate themselves and show their support. These delegates vary from attraction operators and B&B operators to general managers and senior staff of hotels and restaurants to CEOs and managers of marketing organizations. www.tviconference.ca
Position yourself as an industry leader
Gain a competitive advantage through market exposure
Foster relationships in the industry
Increase your company's visibility
Demonstrate a commitment to tourism on Vancouver Island
Leif Bogwald appointed as Secretary-Treasurer to the Board of Tourism Vancouver Island
The Board of Directors is pleased to announce the appointment of Leif Bogwald as Secretary-Treasurer for Tourism Vancouver Island until the next Annual General Meeting in September. Leif brings a dynamic accounting and finance skill set to the board holding his Chartered Professional Accountant designation. Leif owns and operates Vancouver Island Expeditions which offers Read More
guided tours across the entire island, providing Leif with in-depth knowledge of attractions and activities in the region. He is also an active board member of the Parksville Qualicum Beach Tourism Association and the Nanaimo Craft Beer Society.
Awards and nominations include: Top 20 under 40 Community Business Achievement Award (finalist); Nanaimo Chamber of Commerce Business Excellence for Emerging Business (winner 2015); Nanaimo Chamber of Commerce Business Excellence for Tourism Award (finalist 2015); and Duncan Cowichan Chamber of Commerce Black Tie Awards for Young Entrepreneur (finalist 2015).
Aboriginal Tourism BC announces name change to 'Indigenous Tourism BC'
March 7, 2018 – Syilx Territory, Kelowna, British Columbia
At the BC Tourism Industry Conference, Brenda Baptiste, Chair of Aboriginal Tourism BC announced the organization's name change to "Indigenous Tourism BC". The decision was made after consultations with Elders, Leaders and Stakeholders across the province who suggested the use of the term "Indigenous" better reflects the communities' connection with the land and recognizes the diversity of Indigenous peoples within British Columbia.Read More
Indigenous Tourism BC and its Stakeholders believe "Indigenous" more clearly captures the story of Indigenous peoples as indigenous to the land. It creates better alignment between the experiences and understanding of Indigenous peoples, which also has broader awareness in the international community. Finally, it recognizes the powerful connection between Indigenous people and stewardship of their land.
"We Raise our Hands" has also been added as a new tag line to further define our Corporate identity. The Indigenous gesture of the raising of hands is a way to acknowledge and honour our ancestors as well as give thanks for the opportunity to live and work within our ancestral lands. Finally, "We Raise our Hands" to welcome the world to show and share our living Indigenous cultures in British Columbia.
Read the full press release here.
New tourism funding and new ferry route will help draw more visitors
Photo: BC Ferries
From www.bclocalnews.com. The return of ferry service between Port Hardy and Bella Coola will bring more tourists to the area.
The Cariboo Chilcotin Coast Tourism Association's (CCCTA) application for funds through the Municipal and Regional District Tax (MRDT) program, to support tourism recovery within the Cariboo Chilcotin Coast region, has been approved. Read More
The addition of a three per cent tax on accommodations will take effect on May 1, 2018, and the CCCTA is working with the Ministry of Finance to ensure accommodation providers in the CCCTA region (excluding Quesnel and Wells) are aware of how to properly collect and remit the tax. The additional funds will be managed by a local tourism industry marketing committee, and it is expected that the MRDT, which is applicable until 2023, will stimulate an injection of approximately $1 million in new marketing funds annually to drive more visitation to the region.
The addition of the MRDT will provide a much-needed marketing boost, along with other ongoing recovery efforts from last year's devastating wildfires, being undertaken by the CCCTA; Ministry of Tourism, Arts and Culture; Emergency Management BC; Destination BC; and the Province of British Columbia.
A recently released report on the economic impact of the 2017 wildfires to the region estimated direct revenue losses to tourism-related businesses at $55 million. Additional economic impact estimates included a total economic impact of $101 million; an estimated GDP loss of $63 million; and some 98 per cent of tourism businesses impacted.
"These funds, along with other generous investments by our tourism industry partners, will go a long way to ensuring our key markets are informed that the exceptional visitor experiences provided by our region are available for the 2018 tourism season and beyond," says CCCTA CEO Amy Thacker.
In anticipation of a successful MRDT application, the Cariboo Chilcotin Coast Tourism Association applied for cooperative funds under the Destination BC Open Pool competitive program and was awarded $225,000 for the coming fiscal year to also fund the marketing of visitor experiences in the region.
One new experience which will be widely promoted is the June 2018 arrival of BC Ferries' Northern Seawolf, which will run on the new "Great Bear Rainforest route" connecting Port Hardy and Bella Coola.
This critical connection creates the ultimate B.C. journey: travelling to Vancouver Island through the world-renowned Great Bear Rainforest and Chilcotin Plateau, and along the historic Gold Rush Trail through the CCCTA and Thompson-Okanagan Tourism Association regions.
"While the fires were devastating to our industry, we are resilient and strong in our commitment to continue to showcase our region to the world," says CCCTA's board chair, Andre Kuerbis. "We applaud the support of our provincial government and Destination BC in helping us continue to market that the Cariboo Chilcotin Coast is open for the 2018 season with some of the best outdoor and wilderness experiences in the world."
The approval of the MRDT funding follows last year's $200,000 investment announced by Minister Lisa Beare, Ministry of Tourism, Arts and Culture. These funds were used specifically to encourage local British Columbians to book a vacation in the Cariboo Chilcotin Coast region. The "It's Your Backyard—Come Out and Play" campaign is live now (http://www.landwithoutlimits.com/backyard/).
Destination BC also invested an additional $400,000 to go toward increasing awareness of the fall and winter opportunities for travel and the unique experiences in the Cariboo Chilcotin Coast region. This support will continue with the spring "Explore BC" campaign, airing on Global TV.
For more information about the Cariboo Chilcotin Coast tourism region, visit www.landwithoutlimits.com.
Destination Canada 2017: Our Best Year Ever
Canada welcomed a record breaking 20.8 million tourists in 2017, the highest ever in Canadian history.
The preliminary data, released today by Statistics Canada, shows that Canada has surpassed the previous record set in 2002, by almost one million.Read More
"Today's results are yet another reminder of what has been clear for a while now: Canada is back. And more and more, the world wants to come and visit. We are excited to share our vibrant cities, beautiful natural attractions, diverse cultures and proud history with record numbers of visitors," said the Honourable Bardish Chagger, Minister of Small Business and Tourism and Leader of the Government in the House of Commons. "This is great news for our tourism sector, and the more than 1.8 million jobs that depend on it. We are only just getting started, too. Our government is investing in Canada's tourism sector and we have a comprehensive plan to increase tourism even further. As we celebrate the Canada-China Year of Tourism this year, I am certain that the record we set in 2017 is just the beginning of the amazing news for this vital sector."
"This is fantastic news for Canada," said Ben Cowan-Dewar, Chairperson of Destination Canada's Board of Directors. "Working with industry partners across the country has given us a competitive edge and positioned Canada as top of mind for travellers from all over the world."
Since the previous peak year in 2002, the composition of tourists to Canada has changed significantly. Overnight arrivals to Canada from countries other than the United States reached an all-time high of over 31% in 2017, up from 19% in 2002. Overseas tourists typically stay in Canada longer and also spend more, benefiting tourism businesses across Canada, and the Canadian economy.
This record breaking year is due to a number of contributing factors, including Destination Canada's innovative marketing campaigns in key international markets. The Government of Canada has implemented visa changes for priority markets by introducing the eTA and opening seven new visa application centres in China, Canada's third largest source market. New flight routes and increased service to Canadian airports have flight capacity soaring by 7% over 2016 to the highest level ever. It's now easier than ever before for tourists to explore Canada. More information can be found on the December 2017 Tourism Snapshot report.
BC Ferries works with communities on future vision for Horseshoe Bay Terminal
The time has come to create a new vision for Horseshoe Bay terminal, from the services it provides to the look and functionality of its design. Your input will be the cornerstone of the redevelopment effort and will help to shape the future design and function of the terminal.Read More
We have embarked on an extended engagement effort to better understand the important role the terminal plays in your communities and travel experience, and to gather input on how you envision the Horseshoe Bay terminal of the future. We are currently engaging with key stakeholder groups, planning community workshops, and preparing for online engagement this spring. Your voice is important to us so please keep checking back for more information, or sign up to receive project updates below.
Learn more about the engagement process by clicking the blue box below or keep scrolling for answers to some of your frequently asked questions. Have a question that isn't there yet? Email us at horseshoebayvision@bcferries.com. For more information and FAQs, visit BCFerries.com.
2018 BC Tourism Industry Awards Winners
T he BC Tourism Industry Awards recognize excellence in the province's tourism industry. Recipients provide outstanding service, exemplify best business practices, innovative marketing and deliver tourism experiences that contribute to the success of BC's tourism industry – which currently generates $14.6 billion in revenue for the province's economy.
Congratulations to all the amazing nominees for this year's BC Tourism Industry Awards!
Here are the winners and finalists in each category:Read More
Employees First Award, sponsored by go2HR
This award recognizes a British Columbia tourism industry employer who has upheld high standards of excellence in human resources and people management practices.
Ocean River Adventures
Accent Inns
Island Lake Lodge
And the winner… Island Lake Lodge!
Customer Service Award, sponsored by Go RVing Canada
This award recognizes frontline employees whose exceptional customer service contributed to outstanding travel experiences for visitors.
Tourism Kelowna Volunteer Team
Lalli Randhawa, Comfort Inn & Suites, Merritt
Bram Bolwijn, Mission Hill Family Estate Winery
And the winner… Bram Bolwijn, Mission Hill Family Estate Winery!
Innovation Award, sponsored by BDC
This award recognizes an individual, organization or consortium that has devised and implemented an outstanding marketing campaign or initiative that is directed at increasing the number of visitors to or within British Columbia.
Tourism Vancouver
Fairmont Hotels for their World Class Wild Campaign
And the winner… Fairmont Hotels for their World Class Wild Campaign!
This award recognizes a British Columbia tourism business or organization that has developed, delivered, promoted and sold a new or improved tourism product or experience that reflects the essence of British Columbia and contributes to a remarkable visitor experience. Festivals/events, adventure/outdoor, food and beverage, cultural/ heritage, urban/rural and accommodation experiences may all be considered within this category.
Okanagan Villa Estate Winery
The Paisley Notebook
Spirit of the West Adventures
And the winner… Spirit of the West Adventures!
Destination Marketing Organisation (DMO) Professional Excellence Award, sponsored by TIAC & Andrew Peller Limited
Recognizes community DMOs for outstanding performance, accountability and commitment to the tourism industry in British Columbia.
Tourism Kamloops
Tourism Chilliwack
And the winner… Tourism Chilliwack!
Merridale wins six craft spirit awards and best in class
Merridale Cidery & Distillery is raising their cocktail glasses given their recent wins at the Canadian Artisan Spirit Competition (CASC) on February 6th, 2018. The competition is reserved exclusively for micro-distilleries, and was judged by a panel of eight independent spirit experts in a completely blind tasting of artisan spirits from across the country. Read More
As one of the three founders of the Craft Distillers Guild of British Columbia in 2008, Merridale initiated lobbying the government to create the current regulatory environment which has led to the boom in craft distilleries throughout BC. "A truly craft distillery makes products which represent the terroir of the region," said distiller and owner Rick Pipes. "We start with 100% BC grown raw materials, then we process, ferment, distill, age and blend all at our farm distillery. This way, it truly represents the character of our region, Cowichan."
Merridale is passionate about making products they are proud of. They will not hurry anything to the market. All their gins and vodkas are made from spirits aged for more than 2 years in stainless steel tanks, and their brandies are aged in oak barrels for at least 6 years – more than double the industry standard for craft. Some of their spirits have now been aged for over 10 years.
Accompanying Rick Pipes in the distillery is Laurent Lafuente, Master Blender and Distiller, on the Merridale team. Laurent defines the work he does with the aged spirits as a "balancing act between the oak, spice and raw materials resulting in an exquisite expression of timeless age that inspires when consumed, and evokes memories to last". The Cowichan Copper Gin, winner of a gold medal and best in class at CASC, bears evidence to this with 90% of the botanicals coming from the Merridale orchard and surrounding forest.
"Everything Merridale makes is from BC agricultural products", said Janet Docherty, co-owner of Merridale and spouse to Rick Pipes. "We follow that same philosophy in everything we do – Our kitchen is farm to table and our cider has been farm to bottle since 2000."
To celebrate their win, Merridale will host MEET THE MAKERS on February 24th. Guests will have the opportunity to meet the makers to hear and to taste their passion while sampling spirits and indulging in appetizers.
When asked what's next? "We have a new green project on the horizon," said Janet Docherty. "We are building a distillery, brewery and pizzeria at Dockside in Victoria linking urban Victoria to our agricultural roots in Cowichan. We hope to open in the spring of 2019."
Awards from the Canadian Artisan Spirit Competition
Cowichan Copper Gin *BEST IN CLASS & GOLD in Aged Gin Class
Cowichan Cider Brandy *GOLD in Brandy Class
Cowichan XXO Brandy *GOLD in Brandy Class
Cowichan Pear Brandy *BRONZE in Brandy Class
Cowichan Gin *SILVER in Gin Class
Cowichan Vodka *GOLD in Vodka Class
If you would like more information, please contact:
Janet Docherty, co-owner | janet@merridale.ca | (250) 920-9453
Tourism Nanaimo's Discover Your 360° campaign wins two AVA Digital Awards
AVA Statuette – Platinum
AVA platinum statuette
Tourism Nanaimo's Discover Your 360° campaign, created by Hot House Marketing, has won two AVA Digital Awards. The Discover Your 360° campaign took the highest honour of Platinum for the Digital Advertising Campaign and the second highest honour of Gold for Website Design and Production.
The Discover Your 360° campaign concept highlights Nanaimo's ease of access, Read More
proximity to everything an Island visitor would want to see and the affordability of a city that also offers local colour and stories. The campaign made use of residents' perspectives on what to do in Nanaimo, a city resident's own 360° view. The campaign asks potential visitors to stop, look around, become present while also discovering all of the wonderful things that lie within reach and in every direction from Nanaimo.
"Nanaimo is such an amazing tourism destination but is often overshadowed by other Island spots" says Dan Dagg, President of Hot House Marketing. "We knew if we could reach our most likely prospects and show them the range of magnificent things to do and see here, it would work. So, our approach was to simply present the destination through the authentic lens of a local and digital let us do that better than anything else."
"The Hot House Marketing team has done great work with the Discover Your 360° campaign and we are delighted to have this effort recognized by these awards" says Anthony Everett, President and CEO of Tourism Vancouver Island. "This is a new campaign for Tourism Nanaimo and the website, as well as the accompanying digital campaign that Hot House Marketing developed, has been positively received by stakeholders and visitors alike."
AVA Digital Awards is an international competition that recognizes outstanding work by creative professionals involved in the concept, direction, design and production of media that is part of the evolution of digital communication. Work ranges from audio and video productions to interactive social media. AVA Digital Awards is administered and judged by the Association of Marketing and Communication Professionals (AMCP).
For over 20 years, AMCP has been the industry's preeminent third-party evaluator of creative work. Each entry is evaluated and scored by judges from AMCP. Entries receiving scores of 90-100 are Platinum Winners; scores of 80-89 are Gold Winners.
To see the award submission, please click here. For more information on the AVA awards, please visit avaawards.com.
BC Government to raise minimum wage to $15 by 2021
British Columbia's lowest-paid workers will earn a $15-an-hour minimum wage by June 2021, Premier John Horgan announced February 8, 2018, endorsing the recommendations of the Fair Wages Commission.
"Regular, predictable increases to our minimum wage are one important way we can make life more affordable for people," said Premier Horgan.
"For too long, the lowest-paid workers in our province have been left to fall behind, with their wages frozen for a decade at a time. That's not fair and it's not right. Like all British Columbians, our lowest-paid workers deserve a fair shake and a fair wage."Read More
The plan to reach $15 an hour provides for an immediate increase of $1.30 an hour on June 1, 2018, to a new minimum wage of $12.65 an hour. Additional increases will take place on June 1 of each year for three more years. By June 2021, B.C.'s minimum wage will rise to at least $15.20 an hour.
The next wage increase, on June 1, 2018, will benefit 94,000 minimum-wage earners, while increasing the minimum wage to over $15 an hour on June 1, 2021, will benefit 400,000 workers throughout the province. The commission's scaled approach will allow businesses and employers to plan for predictable and stable increases to wages over time.
"Freezing the minimum wage for 10 years hurt people, and then increasing it in a sporadic and unplanned way hurt businesses. We are taking a balanced approach that will work better for everyone, by bringing in measured and predictable increases over time," said Harry Bains, Minister of Labour. "I'm thankful for the incredible work done by the members of the Fair Wages Commission, who worked together to come up with a fair path forward."
The Fair Wages Commission was established in October 2017 as an arm's-length government body to help guide public engagement on how B.C. should achieve a $15-an-hour minimum wage, and also the timeline for implementation. In a report delivered to government in January 2018, following public consultations and receipt of research and submissions, the commission recommended four minimum wage increases over four years.
The Fair Wages Commission recommended the following schedule of increases:
June 1, 2018: $12.65 an hour ($1.30 increase)
June 1, 2019: $13.85 ($1.20 increase)
Depending on economic conditions, the commission recommended that government consider of an additional hourly increase of up to $.20, to $15.40 an hour in 2021.
The Fair Wages Commission report with recommendations can be found here: https://engage.gov.bc.ca/app/uploads/sites/237/2018/02/Report-1_BC-Fair-Wages-Commission_Jan-2018.pdf
For more information and quick facts, visit news.gov.bc.ca.
Open for Business Awards presents Best Large Communities Award to City of Campbell River
The Open For Business Awards recognize and celebrate communities that best demonstrate they are promoting and adopting business friendly initiatives within their region. The Awards provide an important platform for local government to learn and share Best Practices, and showcase winning initiatives that have contributed to the success of local businesses.Read More
Launched in 2011, the awards are managed and delivered by the Small Business Roundtable Secretariat, encompassing four categories:
Small Communities (<5,000 residents)
Medium Communities (5,000 to 25,000 residents)
Large Communities (>25,000 residents)
First Nations Communities (all sizes)
More information and FAQs can be found at Open For Business Awards.
Aboriginal tourism gets $2.25M infusion from federal government
A $2.25-million shot in the arm from the federal government is designed to expand the growing Aboriginal tourism sector, said the federal tourism minister.
Bardish Chagger, who was in Victoria to take part in the Impact Sustainability Travel and Tourism Conference, said the money will help ensure Aboriginal tourism can grow and sustain itself. "This is about Indigenous people supporting Indigenous business," said Chagger. The money is to be handed out over three years to Aboriginal Tourism B.C. Read More
"The Government of Canada takes that relationship seriously. It's a priority for our government and this is how we will help grow on our commitment for reconciliation," she said in an interview. "We want these communities to be sustainable, to be able to grow opportunities for future generations and this $2.25 million will make sure these businesses are market ready and are able to develop Aboriginal tourism and create capacity."
The money is intended to support more than 400 Aboriginal cultural tourism businesses in B.C. by helping establish new products and marketing campaigns.
Learn more here: http://www.timescolonist.com/business/aboriginal-tourism-gets-2-25m-infusion-from-federal-government-1.23151793
13th Golf course added to the Vancouver Island Golf Trail: Campbell River Golf & Country Club to open this summer
It has been a long, long time since a new golf course opened in British Columbia – 2011 to be exact. However, the drought for new golf course starved enthusiasts is about to end with the opening of the new Campbell River Golf & Country Club this summer! Golf Vancouver Island is thrilled to welcome its 13th golf course to the Vancouver Island Golf Trail.
Under new ownership of long-time Campbell River residents, the Mailman Family, the former Sequoia Springs golf course has been completely redesigned by Graham Cooke of Northern Golf Design. The new Campbell River Golf & Country Club promises both Read More
local and destination golfers a challenging, yet inclusive 18-hole championship course for all skill levels.
The Campbell River Golf & Country Club will open the first tee and driving range in summer 2018 with innovative technology and features. The golf course has been completely rebuilt from tee to green and the driving range will be the first in Canada to employ Toptracer range technology. Toptracer is the same technology used to track golf ball trajectories on major golf tournament sportscasts. Using Toptracer, golfers can get accurate views of their shots for analysis and comparison, or just for fun. For those that don't golf, the driving range will be a fun place to hang out; where you can grab a cold drink, watch some sport highlights or step up to the mats and play virtual golf courses from around the world.
Golf enthusiasts can check out the development progress of the Campbell River Golf & Country Club on their new website crgolf.ca, including a course overlay of the old to the new course and a timeline of the course's history and future. The website is designed to be easy to read, feature rich and allow the user to follow along with the construction of the golf course as it gets closer to opening. The Sandtrap Restaurant & Lounge at the Campbell River Golf & Country Club is already open so you can check out the progress firsthand over a meal.
2018 indeed promises to be exciting for the Campbell River Golf & Country Club and the Vancouver Island Golf Trail, however it doesn't stop there. Coming for 2019 and beyond are a new hotel, spa, restaurant, clubhouse, and event centre.
Visit crgolf.ca to learn more about the Campbell River Golf & Country Club, and to plan a Vancouver Island golf vacation to include this or any of the other 12 amazing golf courses on the Vancouver Island Golf Trail, visit golfvancouverisland.ca.
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← Winter (January – March 2018) July – September →


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The Untold Harms of Surrogacy
bioethics and life
I have lost count of the number of celebrities hiring women to gestate their babies. Elton John and David Furnish set the trend ten years ago and the list just keeps growing: Kim Kardashian and Kanye West; Sarah Jessica Parker and Matthew Broderick; Jimmy Fallon and Nancy Juvonen; Nicole Kidman and Keith Urban. More recently, Andy Cohen and Anderson Cooper became single dads via "third party conception," meaning they purchased eggs from one woman and rented the womb of another. This arrangement also constitutes "gestational surrogacy," where a woman enters into a contract, most often for money, to carry a non-genetically related child for another couple or a single person.
Now Amy Schumer, talking about her pregnancy complications, is considering using a surrogate to have her next child. In her HBO documentary, Expecting Amy, her friend Christy Turlington Burns talks about wanting to have another baby, at which Amy exclaims, "Great! I'm looking for a surrogate, because I'm never doing [pregnancy] again." Schumer suffered from hyperemesis gravidarum during her pregnancy with her now 14-month-old son Gene. While morning sickness is common in pregnant women, hyperemesis gravidarum is much less common and presents as severe nausea, vomiting, weight loss, and dehydration. Women often need to be hospitalized, as in Schumer's case. Because the risk is high of having this condition in subsequent pregnancies, it appears Amy is thinking about outsourcing her next pregnancy. Time magazine once listed pregnancy as No. 1 in their list of "top 10 chores" to outsource.
Flicking through these headlines while standing in line at the grocery store, many might think that surrogate mothers have undertaken an amazing act of service. However, if you scratch below the gloss of People magazine, you will learn about the serious health risks to women who carry babies for others, as well as the serious risks to the children they give birth to.
Let's start with the maternal-morbidity and -mortality rates in the U.S. Morbidity trends in the U.S. have been increasing for years. Per the Centers for Disease Control website, the most recent report shows that severe maternal morbidity has increased by almost 200 percent, from 49.5 percent in 1993 to 144.0 percent in 2014. Pre-eclampsia is one of the leading causes of maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide. The U.S. maternal-mortality rate has also been steadily rising. In fact, the U.S. is the only developed country where maternal mortality is on the rise. As the authors of a recent Harvard Business Review report note: "Over 700 women die of complications related to pregnancy each year in the USA, and two-thirds of those deaths are preventable," "black women in the USA are three to four times more likely to die in childbirth than white women — regardless of education, income, or any other socio-economic factors," and an additional 50,000 American women suffer from life-threatening complications of pregnancy according to the CDC. Now let's extrapolate this data to the pregnancy of a surrogate mother. Fertility and Sterility, a leading fertility medical journal, published a 2017 study comparing "perinatal outcomes after natural conception versus in vitro fertilization (IVF) in gestational surrogates." Significantly, the study compared a woman's– own pregnancy with her gestational surrogate pregnancy and found that:
Neonates born from commissioned embryos and carried by gestational surrogates have increased adverse perinatal outcomes, including preterm birth, low birth weight, hypertension, maternal gestational diabetes, and placenta previa, compared with singletons conceived spontaneously and carried by the same woman.
Dr. Allen Merritt, a perinatologist at Loma Linda Medical Center in California, published a snapshot of the medical outcomes of surrogate deliveries at Loma Linda in 2012-2013 and found that of 69 infants delivered from surrogates, there was an increase in multiple births, NICU admissions, and longer hospital stays which added to hospital charges. In fact, in the case of surrogate mothers who gave birth to a single baby or twins, hospital charges increased 26 times, and in triplet births, hospital charges increased 173 times. Of course, these increased lengths of stay in the hospital and spiked costs were all because these women were in a high-risk pregnancy category, putting their health and the health of the unborn babies at risk.
The profound consequences of this data are illustrated in the news of surrogate mothers who have died in the U.S. Brooke Brown of Boise, Idaho died in 2015 of pregnancy related complications. The twins she was carrying for a couple in Spain (where all surrogacy is illegal) died too. Crystal Wilhite, a young mother of two in Southern California, also died of complications of her surrogate pregnancy in 2017. And just this year, Michelle Reaves, also a young mother of two, in San Diego, Calif., died from pregnancy-related complications. This was her second surrogate pregnancy for a couple she had already had a baby for.
Knowing the bleak maternal-morbidity and -mortality rates in the U.S., and adding to that the high-risk nature of a surrogate pregnancy, why would Ms. Schumer, or anyone else for that matter, want to put a young mother's life at risk.
by Jennifer Lahl – Stop Surrogacy Now
Jennifer Lahl
madre surrogata
Stop Surrogacy Now
Freedom to think: the need for thorough assessment and treatment of gender dysphoric children
The Dormition of the Mother of God (Saint John Paul II)
Let us free the slave women
bioethics and life (100)
Education and culture (51)
faith and spirituality (114)
marriage and love (35)
persecuted christians (5)
trafficking and exploitation (72)
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Saint Gemma Galgani. Diary
Can Works Aid In Our Salvation?
Child Trafficking in the world (2017)
I believe in prayer (Father Andrea Gasparino)
Prostitution is not a Sex Work
I was a Surrogate. I want people to know what's really going on (Mary)
Lahl: How did you find us? Marie: I found your site when I was looking for help on the internet. I got no help in Greece because the law is on t...
Calling for a Radical Change of Perspective on Surrogate Motherhood
We ask for a radical change of perspective in the way the issue of surrogate motherhood is dealt with. Surrogacy is a huge market of several bil...
Unmasking the Horrors of Rent-a-Womb Inc.: A Review of "#BigFertility: It's All About the Money"
If you know of any woman considering becoming a surrogate mom, I implore you, please move heaven and earth to convince her not to proceed. ...

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Winter arrived on the East slope of the Rockies with a bang on Tuesday. Snowfall was from 20-40cm depending up on location and it tapered slightly as you went west. Very little wind observed with the storm but as is usual for this time of year we have very few observations from treeline and the alpine during storms. It would be a safe assumption that there has been some wind effect in the alpine and dramatic solar radiation effects on S and W aspects at least today.
First impressions are that this new snow has bonded fairly well. People are certainly getting after it skiing some fairly bold lines for this much fresh snow in early October:) The link below should get you to a photo of a very fresh avalanche that most skiers would consider relevant to their well being.
We really don't have enough direct observations of the snowpack yet to know if there is any layers of concern. In the long term this early season snow may just end being some early season facets in alpine areas but only observations over time will tell us that story.
It is a much different story west of the Rockies. It looked and sounded like a nice day rock climbing in the low elevations of the Columbia Mountains with some sunny breaks at Rogers pass. Not as much snow on the ground in the Columbias and very little in the Kootenay Boundary region.
Of course the usual caveats about early season skiing hazards apply. Falling or being caught in an avalanche on the thinly veiled rocks and shrubbery early season is much more potentially harmful than the same scenario with more snow on the ground. Still, there is some good looking turns to be had if you do some good looking around for the right features to turn on.


Motorcycle enthusiasts often cite the excitement of open-air travel as a major reason for riding a two-wheeler. But that same freedom is also why motorcycle accidents are 30 times more likely than auto accidents to result in serious, often fatal, injuries to the riders. Typical injuries suffered in a motorcycle accident include severe abrasions, paralysis, limb and facial fractures, amputations, head trauma, and spinal injuries. If you or someone you know have been hurt in a motorcycle accident in Central New York, our motorcycle injury lawyers at Nicholas, Perot, Smith, Welch & Smith are ready to help.
Getting your life back on track after you or a loved one have suffered one or more of these extreme injuries can be a long and difficult task. It's important to get all the help you can, and hiring an experienced injury lawyer like those at Nicholas, Perot, Smith, Welch & Smith could be just what you need. We have an in-depth understanding about the costs to recover from such a life-altering event and effective ways to secure the compensation needed to cover those expenses, now and in the future.
Motorcyclists are not always blameless victims who bear no responsibility for an accident. Speeding is cited as a factor in a majority of crashes, and alcohol plays a role in almost half of the fatal accidents. Other causes of motorcycle wrecks include slide outs and falls from over braking or running wide on curves. There are also cases where spills and fuel leaks have led to fire hazards. Losing control due to a tire blowout is another cause. Our legal team in Central New York is skilled at determining what caused a motorcycle accident and who should be held liable for its tragic consequences.
Hiring an experienced motorcycle injury lawyer following an accident can ensure the preservation of relevant evidence. Also, opting for a reconstruction specialist can help determine and document the exact causes of the accident in the timeliest manner. The experienced motorcycle accident attorneys of Nicholas, Perot, Smith, Welch & Smith know that thorough preparation can discourage the responsible party from contesting your claim in court.
If you or your loved one have been hurt in a motorcycle accident, the attorneys of Nicholas, Perot, Smith, Welch & Smith are standing by. Contact us today for a free consultation.


text:
Check Out New York's 'Stonehenge' – New Salem's Balanced Rock
Steve King Published: July 7, 2021
Youtube/Yonkers Voice
I've always wanted to visit Stonehenge in England, but so far I haven't had the chance. In the meantime, I can visit our own version of Stonehenge right here in New Salem, New York.
Now, it's not as big as its England counterpart, but it's just as mysterious.
Was it built by some ancient civilizations? What was it used for? Did aliens help build it? Is it a natural formation? I wonder if Bigfoot built it?
There are generally two schools of thought as to how this huge 60-ton boulder came to rest on six smaller stones. One, it's a natural geological formation that was made millions of years ago by ancient glaciers. Or, two, it was manmade by an ancient civilization like the Celtics. The latter theory seems more reasonable to me because it looks like other formations that can be found all over Europe and North America.
So what do you think? How was it made and for what purpose?
New York's 'Stonehenge' Is New Salem's Balanced Rock
You Could Own New York's Fort Blunder On Lake Champlain
Nobody Knows Who Built This Mysterious Throne Room On The Side of a Mountain in The Catskills Woods
Source: Check Out New York's 'Stonehenge' – New Salem's Balanced Rock
Filed Under: Balanced Rock, New Salem, New York, q1057, Steve King
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See The 10 Best, Mouth-Watering Capital Region Steakhouses [RANKED]
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Rustic NY Airbnb Cabin with Wood-Fired Hot Tub and Breathtaking Mountain Views


The geographical area which comprises District #533, Southeastern Illinois College, is one of the most beautiful, unique areas in the State of Illinois and is certainly one of the most historical in the early settlement of the state.
The eastern boundary of the college district is the Wabash River which separates Illinois from neighboring Indiana. The river, still not very large here, winds its way towards the Ohio River providing excellent fishing and boating for recreation and irrigation for farmland. It empties into the Ohio River just below the Union Town Lock and Dam which is the beginning of what is known as the Smithland Pool on the Ohio River. This unique pool, longest on the Ohio River, extends for more than 90 miles across the southern edge of the district to the Smithland Lock and Dam which is located in Pope County.
Old Shawneetown, Battery Rock, Cave-In-Rock, Elizabethtown, Tower Rock, Rosiclare, and Golconda are just a few of the must see places on the river. The river is so large and deep on this pool that fishermen, pleasure boaters, and tow boats can use the river together and not get in the way of one another.
From the Ohio River the southern part of the district rises up into the wonderful hills of the Shawnee National Forest. Hiking, hunting, and horseback riding are just a few of the pleasures of the Shawnee National Forest. On a winter?s trek through this area one could see thousands of geese, a herd of deer numbering more than 20 (or perhaps just a couple here and there), a group of large, strange looking birds, maybe 9 to 12 of them, which turn out to be wild turkey, minding their own business, but certainly minding business as they feed.
Towards the northern edge of the district the hills fall off into some of the best farmland in the state of Illinois. Along with this farmland are some of the most abundant areas of coal in the United States. Together farmers and miners work their respective areas, always mindful of the geographic beauty and historical significance of the area. Where farmers and miners of the past were not so careful these areas now boast a plethora of wildlife.
Many of the early settlers got off their flatboats at, or traveled over from Kentucky, to Hardin County, Illinois. The stories of river pirates, thieves, and historical figures are numerous and fascinating. The first notable settlement in Illinois was Shawneetown in Gallatin County. Some great stories emerge from there as well. The Garden of the Gods, Cave Hills, High Knob, salt licks, Iron Furnace, Charlie Birger, the 1937 Flood, and on and on goes the list of people and places of District #533.
All those involved with Southeastern Illinois Community College: trustees, administrators, faculty, and students alike appreciate this unique part of the great State of Illinois, and work towards its reparation, restoration and preservation while all the while encouraging others to visit and enjoy the area as much as those who live here. It is part of the mission of the college -- one which is taken very seriously.


Darner socks are designed and made in Los Angeles. They are simple, yet luxurious. The socks are cut and sewn from custom fabrics, inspired by a hosiery pattern from the late 1800's.The name of the company comes from the nickname given to the women who would repair (or darn) soldiers' damaged socks during the Civil War.


Secondary Silencer Delete Pipes, a lighter weight component that has more efficient flow and shows a noticeable improvement in throttle response whilst enhancing that sports car sound.
- Offers a crisper note with higher revs and more volume throughout.
- Lighter benefiting all areas of performance.


Bridal Secret says it all in the name, they are Pretoria's best-kept secret, located in the heart of Faerie Glen. Bridal Secret, wedding dresses in Pretoria. This is an exceptional Bridal Boutique where they specialise in the selling or renting of exquisite wedding dresses. Their focus allows for every woman to feel comfortable in her body as, plus size wedding dresses are imported worldwide and produced locally for all of their brides, heavenly taste.
Incorporating the latest trends, nationally and internationally Bridal Secret allows for your imagination to run wild and makes every one of your childhood dreams come true. Unlock the key to your mind, get in contact with one of their professional consultants today to help you find that perfect wedding dress for that unforgettable wedding day.
Dresses range from R4000 to R10 000 to rent. Dresses range from R6000 to R26 000 to buy.


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Chris Oldre shares some photos and a letter he received from sales manager Kevin Williamson congratulating him on his new job as Wildcat sales rep.
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text:
Перехре́сне затве́рджування (), іноді зване ротаці́йним оці́нюванням () або позави́бірковим випро́буванням (), — це будь-яка з подібних методик затверджування моделі для оцінювання того, наскільки результати статистичного аналізу узагальнюватимуться на незалежний набір даних. Його переважно використовують в постановках, де метою є передбачування, й потрібно оцінювати те, наскільки точно передбачувальна модель працюватиме на практиці. В задачі передбачування, моделі зазвичай дають набір відомих даних, на яких виконують тренування (тренувальний набір даних), та набір невідомих даних (або вперше бачених даних), на яких модель випробовують (званий затверджувальним або випробувальним набором даних). Метою перехресного затверджування є випробувати здатність моделі передбачувати нові дані, які не використовувалися при її визначенні, щоби просигналізувати про такі проблеми як перенавчання та ви́біркове упередження, і щоби дати уявлення про те, як ця модель узагальнюватиметься на незалежний набір даних (тобто, невідомий набір даних, наприклад, з реальної задачі).

Один раунд перехресного затверджування включає розбивання вибірки даних на взаємодоповнювальні піднабори, виконання аналізу на одному з піднаборів (званому тренувальним набором) та затверджування результатів на іншому піднаборі (званому затверджувальним або випробувальним набором). З метою зниження мінливості, в більшості методів виконують декілька раундів перехресного затверджування з використанням різних розбиттів, і, щоби дати оцінку передбачувальної продуктивності моделі, результати затверджування поєднують (наприклад, усереднюють) над раундами.

Коротко, перехресне затверджування поєднує (усереднює) міри допасованості в передбачуванні, щоби вивести точнішу оцінку передбачувальної продуктивності моделі.

Обґрунтування

Припустімо, що в нас є модель з одним чи більше невідомими параметрами, та набір даних, до якого цю модель можливо допасувати (тренувальний набір даних). Процес допасовування оптимізує ці параметри моделі, щоби зробити модель якнайкраще допасованою до цих тренувальних даних. Якщо ми потім візьмемо незалежну вибірку затверджувальних даних з тої ж сукупності, з якої було взято й тренувальні дані, то, як правило, виявиться, що ця модель не допасовується до затверджувальних даних так же добре, як вона допасовується до даних тренувальних. Розмір цієї різниці може бути великим, особливо коли розмір тренувального набору даних є малим, або коли число параметрів моделі є великим. Перехресне затверджування є одним зі способів оцінити розмір цього ефекту.

В лінійній регресії ми маємо дійсні значення відгуку y1, ..., yn, та n p-вимірних векторних коваріат x1, ..., xn. Компоненти вектора xi позначують через xi1, ..., xip. Якщо ми використовуємо найменші квадрати, щоби допасувати функцію в вигляді гіперплощини ŷ = a + βTx до даних (xi, yi) 1 ≤ i ≤ n, то ми можемо оцінювати допасованість, застосовуючи середньоквадратичну похибку (СКП, ). СКП для заданих оцінюваних значень параметрів a та β на тренувальному наборі (xi, yi) 1 ≤ i ≤ n визначено як

Якщо модель вказано правильно, то за м'яких припущень може бути показано, що математичне сподівання СКП для тренувального набору становить (n − p − 1)/(n + p + 1) < 1 на математичне сподівання СКП для затверджувального набору (математичне сподівання береться над розподілом тренувальних наборів). Таким чином, якщо ми допасуємо модель й обчислимо СКП на тренувальному наборі, то ми отримаємо оптимістично упереджену оцінку того, наскільки добре ця модель допасовуватиметься на незалежному наборі даних. Цю упереджену оцінку називають внутрішньовибірковою () оцінкою допасованості, тоді як оцінку перехресного затверджування називають позавибірковою () оцінкою.

Оскільки в лінійній регресії можливо безпосередньо обчислювати коефіцієнт (n − p − 1)/(n + p + 1), на який тренувальна СКП недооцінює затверджувальну СКП за припущення, що модель вказано правильно, то перехресне затверджування можливо застосовувати, щоби перевіряти, чи не було модель перенавчено, в разі чого СКП у затверджувальному наборі значно перевищуватиме її очікуване значення. (Перехресне затверджування в контексті лінійної регресії також корисне тим, що його можливо використовувати, щоби обирати оптимально регуляризовану функцію витрат.) В більшості інших регресійних процедур (наприклад, в логістичній регресії) простої формули для обчислення очікуваної позавибіркової допасованості не існує. Перехресне затверджування, відтак, є загально застосовним способом передбачувати продуктивність моделі на недоступних даних із застосуванням чисельних обчислень замість теоретичного аналізу.

Типи

Може бути вирізнено два типи перехресного затверджування: вичерпне () та невичерпне ().

Вичерпне перехресне затверджування

Вичерпні методи перехресного затверджування — це такі методи перехресного затверджування, які навчаються та випробовуються на всіх можливих способах поділу первинної вибірки на тренувальний та затверджувальний набори.

Перехресне затверджування з виключенням по p

Перехресне затверджування з виключенням по p (ПЗ ВПp, ) передбачає використання p спостережень як затверджувального набору, й решти спостережень як набору тренувального. Це повторюють всіма способами розрізування первинної вибірки на затверджувальний набір із p спостережень, та тренувальний набір.

Перехресне затверджування ВПp вимагає тренування та затверджування моделі  разів, де n є числом спостережень у первинній вибірці, й де  є біноміальним коефіцієнтом. Для p > 1 й для навіть помірно великого n ПЗ ВПp може стати обчислювально нездійсненним. Наприклад, за n = 100 та p = 30, .

Варіант перехресного затверджування ВПp із p = 2, відомий як перехресне затверджування з виключенням парами, було рекомендовано як майже неупереджений метод оцінювання площі під кривою РХП бінарних класифікаторів.

Перехресне затверджування з виключенням по одному

Перехресне затверджування з виключенням по одному (ПЗВПО, ) — це окремий випадок перехресного затверджування з виключенням по p із p = 1. Цей процес виглядає подібним до складаного ножа, проте при перехресному затверджуванні обчислюють статистику на виключених зразках, тоді як при складаноножуванні обчислюють статистику лише для залишених зразків.

Перехресне затверджування ВПО вимагає меншого обчислювального часу, ніж ВПp, оскільки має лише  проходів замість . Проте  проходів все одно можуть вимагати вельми великого обчислювального часу, в разі чого доречнішими можуть бути інші підходи, такі як k-кратне перехресне затверджування.

Псевдокодовий алгоритм:

Вхід:

x, {вектор довжини N зі значеннями x точок входу}

y, {вектор довжини N зі значеннями y очікуваного результату}

interpolate(x_in, y_in, x_out), { повертає оцінку для точки x_out після того, як модель було натреновано на парах x_in—y_in}

Вихід:

err, {оцінка похибки передбачування}

Кроки:

  err ← 0
  for i ← 1, ..., N do
    // визначити піднабори перехресного затверджування
    x_in ← (x[1], ..., x[i − 1], x[i + 1], ..., x[N])
    y_in ← (y[1], ..., y[i − 1], y[i + 1], ..., y[N])
    x_out ← x[i]
    y_out ← interpolate(x_in, y_in, x_out)
    err ← err + (y[i] − y_out)^2
  end for
  err ← err/N

Невичерпне перехресне затверджування

Невичерпні методи перехресного затверджування не обчислюють всі способи поділу первинної вибірки. Ці методи є наближенням перехресного затверджування з виключенням по p.

k-кратне перехресне затверджування

В k-кратнім перехреснім затверджуванні () первинну вибірку випадково розбивають на k підвибірок однакового розміру. З цих k підвибірок одну підвибірку притримують як затверджувальні дані для випробування моделі, а решту k − 1 вибірок використовують як тренувальні дані. Потім процес перехресного затверджування повторюють k разів, використовуючи кожну з k підвибірок як затверджувальні дані рівно один раз. Відтак ці k результатів може бути усереднено, щоби отримати єдину оцінку. Перевагою цього методу перед повторюваним випадковим взяттям підвибірок (див. нижче) є те, що як для тренування, так і для затверджування використовують всі спостереження, й кожне спостереження використовують для затверджування рівно один раз. Зазвичай використовують 10-кратне затверджування, але загалом k залишається вільним параметром.

Наприклад, встановлення k = 2 призводить до 2-кратного перехресного затверджування. У 2-кратнім перехреснім затверджуванні ми випадково розкида́ємо набір даних на два набори d0 та d1 таким чином, що обидва мають однакові розміри (це зазвичай втілюють через перетасовування масиву даних та поділ його навпіл). Потім ми тренуємо на d0 й затверджуємо на d1, після чого тренуємо на d1 й затверджуємо на d0.

Коли k = n (числу спостережень), k-кратне перехресне затверджування є рівнозначним перехресному затверджуванню з виключенням по одному.

В стратифікованім () k-кратнім перехреснім затверджуванні частини обирають таким чином, щоби середнє значення відгуку було приблизно рівним в усіх частинах. У випадку бінарної класифікації це означає, що кожна частина містить приблизно однакову пропорцію двох типів міток класу.

У повторюванім () перехреснім затверджуванні дані випадково ділять на k частин декілька разів. Продуктивність моделі відтак може бути усереднено над декількома проходами, але на практиці це рідко є бажаним.

Метод притримування

В методі притримування () ми випадково призначуємо точки даних двом наборами d0 та d1, зазвичай званим тренувальним та випробувальним наборами відповідно. Розмір кожного з наборів є довільним, хоча зазвичай випробувальний набір є меншим за тренувальний. Потім ми тренуємо (будуємо модель) на d0, та випробуємо (оцінюємо її продуктивність) на d1.

В типовім перехреснім затверджуванні усереднюють результати декількох пробігань моделювання-випробування. На противагу цьому, метод притримування, наодшибі, містить лише одне пробігання. Його слід застосовувати обережно, оскільки без такого усереднювання декількох пробігань можна досягти дуже оманливих результатів. Показник передбачувальної точності (F*) матиме схильність бути нестійким, оскільки його не буде згладжено декількома ітераціями (див. нижче). Аналогічно, схильність бути нестійкими матимуть показники конкретної ролі, яку відіграю́ть ті чи інші передбачувальні змінні (наприклад, значення регресійних коефіцієнтів).

І хоча метод притримування може бути охарактеризовано як «найпростіший тип перехресного затверджування», багато джерел натомість класифікують притримування як один з типів простого затверджування, а не як просту або вироджену форму затверджування перехресного.

Повторюване випадкове підвибіркове затверджування

Цей метод (), відомий також як перехресне затверджування Монте-Карло, створює декілька випадкових поділів набору даних на тренувальні та затверджувальні дані. Для кожного такого поділу модель допасовують до тренувальних даних, й оцінюють її передбачувальну точність, застосовуючи затверджувальні дані. Результати відтак усереднюють над цими поділами. Перевагою цього методу (перед k-кратним перехресним затверджуванням) є те, що пропорція тренувального/затверджувального поділу не залежить від числа ітерацій (тобто, числа розбиттів). Недоліком цього методу є те, що деякі спостереження може ніколи не бути обрано до затверджувальної підвибірки, тоді як інші може бути обрано понад один раз. Іншими словами, затверджувальні піднабори можуть перекриватися. Цей метод також зазнає́  мінливості Монте-Карло, що означає, що результати варіюватимуться, якщо аналіз повторюватимуть з відмінними випадковими поділами.

З наближенням числа випадкових поділів до нескінченності результат повторюваного випадкового підвибіркового затверджування має схильність прямувати до результату перехресного затверджування з виключенням по p.

У стратифікованім варіанті цього підходу випадкові вибірки породжують таким чином, щоби середнє значення відгуку (тобто, залежної змінної в регресії) було рівним у тренувальному та випробувальному наборах. Це є особливо корисним, якщо відгуки є дихотомними з незбалансованим представленням двох значень відгуку в даних.

Вкладене перехресне затверджування

Коли перехресне затверджування використовують одночасно для обирання найкращого набору гіперпараметрів та для оцінювання похибки (та здатності до узагальнювання), необхідним є вкладене перехресне затверджування (). Варіантів існує багато. Можливо виділити щонайменше два варіанти:

k×l-кратне перехресне затверджування

Це є істинно вкладеним варіантом (наприклад, вживаним у cross_val_score в scikit-learn), що містить зовнішній k-кратний цикл, та внутрішній l-кратний цикл. Загальний набір даних ділять на k наборів. Один по одному, обирають набір як (зовнішній) випробувальний набір, а решту k - 1 наборів поєднують у відповідний зовнішній тренувальний набір. Це повторюють для кожного з k наборів. Кожен зовнішній тренувальний набір ділять далі на l наборів. Один по одному, обирають набір як внутрішній випробувальний (затверджувальний) набір, а решту l - 1 наборів поєднують у відповідний внутрішній тренувальний набір. Це повторюють для кожного з l наборів. Внутрішні тренувальні набори використовують для допасовування параметрів моделі, тоді як зовнішній випробувальний набір використовують як затверджувальний набір, щоби забезпечити неупереджену оцінку допасованості моделі. Зазвичай, це повторюють для багатьох різних гіперпараметрів (або навіть різних типів моделей), і затверджувальний набір використовують для визначення найкращого набору гіперпараметрів (та типу моделі) для цього внутрішнього тренувального набору. Після цього нову модель допасовують до всього зовнішнього тренувального набору, використовуючи найкращий набір гіперпараметрів з внутрішнього перехресного затверджування. Продуктивність цієї моделі потім оцінюють, використовуючи зовнішній випробувальний набір.

k-кратне перехресне затверджування із затверджувальним та випробувальним наборами

Воно є одним з типів k×l-кратного перехресного затверджування, в якому l = k - 1. Одне k-кратне перехресне затверджування використовують як із затверджувальним, так і з випробувальним набором. Загальний набір даних ділять на k наборів. Один по одному, набір обирають як випробувальний. Потім, один по одному, один з наборів, що лишилися, використовують як затверджувальний набір, а решту k - 2 наборів використовують як тренувальні, поки не буде оцінено всі можливі комбінації. Подібно до k×l-кратного перехресного затверджування, тренувальний набір використовують для допасовування моделі, а затверджувальний набір використовують для оцінки моделі для кожного з наборів гіперпараметрів. Нарешті, для обраного набору параметрів використовують випробувальний набір, щоби оцінити модель із найкращим набором параметрів. Тут є можливими два варіанти: або оцінювання моделі, що було натреновано на тренувальному наборі, або оцінювання нової моделі, що було допасовано до поєднання тренувального та затверджувального наборів.

Міри допасованості

Метою перехресного затверджування є оцінити очікуваний рівень допасованості моделі до набору даних, що є незалежним від даних, які було використано для тренування моделі. Його можливо використовувати для оцінювання кількісної міри допасованості, що є властивою цим даним та моделі. Наприклад, для задач бінарної класифікації кожен випадок у затверджувальному наборі є передбаченим або правильно, або неправильно. В такій ситуації для підбивання підсумку допасованості можливо використовувати рівень похибки неправильної класифікації, хоча також можливо використовувати й інші міри, такі як прогностична значущість позитивного результату. Коли передбачуване значення є розподіленим неперервно, для підсумовування похибок можливо використовувати середньоквадратичну похибку,  чи медіану абсолютних відхилень.

Використання апріорної інформації

Коли користувачі застосовують перехресне затверджування для обирання доброї конфігурації , то вони можуть хотіти збалансовувати вибір перехресного затверджування з їхньою власною оцінкою конфігурації. Таким чином, вони можуть намагатися протистояти мінливості перехресного затверджування, коли розмір вибірки є малим, й включати доречну інформацію з попередніх досліджень. Наприклад, у вправі поєднування прогнозів, перехресне затверджування можливо застосовувати для оцінювання ваг, призначуваних кожному з прогнозів. Оскільки простий рівнозважений прогноз важко перемогти, на відхилення від рівних ваг може бути запроваджено штраф. Або, якщо перехресне затверджування застосовують для призначування індивідуальних ваг спостереженням, то можливо штрафувати відхилення від рівних ваг, щоб уникати марнування потенційно доречної інформації. Гурнвеґ (2018) показує, як можливо визначити параметр налаштування  таким чином, щоби користувач міг інтуїтивно балансувати між точністю перехресного затверджування та просторою дотримування еталонного параметру , визначеного користувачем.

Якщо  позначує -ту конфігурацію-кандидата, яку могло би бути обрано, то функцію втрат для мінімізування може бути визначено як

Відносну точність () може бути виражено кількісно як , так що середньоквадратичну похибку кандидата  роблять відносною до визначеної користувачем . Член відносної простоти () вимірює величину, на яку  відхиляється від , по відношенню до максимальної величини відхилення від . Відповідно, відносну простоту може бути вказано як , де  відповідає значенню  з найбільшим допустимим відхиленням від . За допомогою  користувач встановлює, наскільки сильним є вплив еталонного параметру по відношенню до перехресного затверджування.

Можливо додавати члени відносної простоти для декількох конфігурації , вказавши функцію втрат як

Гурнвеґ (2018) показує, що функцію втрат з таким компромісом точності-простоти також можливо використовувати, щоби інтуїтивно визначати  на кшталт (адаптивного) LASSO та баєсової / хребтової регресії. Див. приклад у .

Статистичні властивості

Припустімо, що ми обираємо міру допасованості F, й використовуємо перехресне затверджування, щоби виробити оцінку F* математичного сподівання допасованості () EF моделі до незалежного набору даних, вибраного з тієї ж генеральної сукупності, що й тренувальні дані. Якщо ми уявимо вибирання декількох незалежних тренувальних наборів, що слідують одному й тому ж розподілові, то значення результату F* будуть мінливими. Статистичні властивості F* випливають із цієї мінливості.

Перехресно-затверджувальний оцінювач F* є майже-майже незміщеним для EF. Причиною того, що він є злегка зміщеним, є те, що тренувальний набір у перехреснім затверджуванні є дещо меншим за справжній набір даних (наприклад, для ПЗВПО розмір тренувального набору становить n − 1 за кількості спостережених випадків n). Майже в усіх випадках вплив цього зміщення буде консервативним, в тому сенсі, що оцінена допасованість буде злегка зміщеною в напрямку підказування гіршої допасованості. На практиці це зміщення рідко стає предметом занепокоєння.

Дисперсія F* може бути великою. З цієї причини, якщо дві статистичні процедури порівнюють на основі перехресного затверджування, процедура з кращою оцінюваною продуктивність може насправді не бути кращою з цих двох (тобто, вона може не мати кращого значення EF). Було досягнуто певного прогресу в побудові довірчих проміжків навколо оцінок перехресного затверджування, але це вважають складною проблемою.

Обчислювальні питання

Більшість форм перехресного затверджування є прямолінійними для втілення, доки є доступним втілення досліджуваного методу передбачування. Зокрема, метод передбачування може бути «чорною скринькою», — немає потреби мати доступ до нутрощів його втілення. Якщо метод передбачування є витратним для тренування, то перехресне затверджування може бути повільним, оскільки тренування мусить здійснюватися багаторазово. В деяких випадках, таких як найменші квадрати та , перехресне затверджування можливо значно прискорити, обчислюючи попередньо деякі значення, що є потрібними в тренуванні багаторазово, або використовуючи швидкі «правила уточнення», такі як . Проте, слід бути обережними, щоби зберегти «повне засліплення» затверджувального набору від тренувальної процедури, бо інакше може виникнути зміщення. Крайній випадок прискорення перехресного затверджування трапляється в лінійній регресії, де результати перехресного затверджування є , відомим як сума квадратів похибок передбачуваних залишків (, ).

Обмеження та неправильне використання

Перехресне затверджування видає змістовні результати лише якщо затверджувальний та тренувальний набори вибирають з однієї й тієї ж генеральної сукупності, й лише якщо людське упередження перебуває під контролем.

В багатьох застосуваннях передбачувального моделювання структура досліджуваної системи еволюціює з часом (тобто, є «нестаціонарною»). І те, й друге може привносити систематичні відмінності між тренувальним та затверджувальним наборами. Наприклад, якщо модель для  тренують на даних за певний п'ятирічний період, то буде нереалістичним розглядати наступний п'ятирічний період як вибраний з тієї ж генеральної сукупності. Як інший приклад, розгляньмо модель, що розробляють для передбачування ризику особи отримати діагноз певної хвороби протягом наступного року. Якщо модель тренують, використовуючи дані дослідження, що охоплює лише специфічну групу населення (наприклад, молодих людей, або чоловіків), але потім застосовують до населення в цілому, то результати перехресного затверджування з тренувального набору можуть відрізнятися від дійсної передбачувальної продуктивності дуже сильно.

В багатьох застосування також може бути неправильно вказано моделі, або вони можуть змінюватися залежно від упередженості моделювальника та/або випадкового вибору. Коли таке трапляється, може виникати ілюзія, що система змінюється в зовнішніх вибірках, тоді як причиною є те, що модель пропустила критичний передбачувач, та/або включила передбачувач, збитий з пантелику. Нові дані свідчать, що перехресне затверджування саме по собі є не дуже передбачувальним для зовнішньої застосовності, тоді як один з видів експериментального затверджування, відомий як обмінне вибирання (), що контролює людське упередження, може мати щодо неї значно кращу передбачувальну здатність. Як визначено цим великим дослідженням MAQC-II для 30 000 моделей, обмінне вибирання містить в собі перехресне затверджування в тому сенсі, що передбачування випробовують на незалежних тренувальній та затверджувальній вибірках. До того ж, моделі також і розробляють на цих незалежних вибірках, і моделювальниками, що не знають одні про одних. Коли між цими моделями, розробленими на цих обмінюваних тренувальному та затверджувальному наборах, є невідповідність, що трапляється доволі часто, MAQC-II показує, що це значно краще передбачуватиме погану зовнішню продуктивність, ніж традиційне перехресне затверджування.

Причиною успішності обмінного вибирання є вбудований контроль людських упереджень в побудові моделей. На додачу до занадто великої віри у передбачування, яка може варіюватися між моделювальниками, і вести до поганої зовнішньої застосовності через ці сплутані впливи моделювальників, ось іще деякі неправильні способи використання перехресного затверджування:

 Виконання початкового аналізу для виявляння найінформативніших ознак із застосуванням всього набору даних, якщо обирання ознак або налаштування моделі вимагає процедура моделювання: це мусить бути повторювано на кожному тренувальному наборі. Інакше передбачування безумовно будуть зміщеними вгору. Якщо для вирішування, яку ознаку використовувати, застосовувати перехресне затверджування, то для виконання обирання ознак на кожному тренувальному наборі мусить виконуватися внутрішнє перехресне затверджування ().
 Дозволяння деяким з тренувальних даних входити й до випробувального набору: це може ставатися через «двійникування» в наборі даних, за якого в ньому міститься якась кількість повністю або майже ідентичних зразків. Двійникування до деякої міри завжди має місце навіть в ідеально незалежних тренувальних та затверджувальних вибірках. Це відбувається через те, що деякі зі спостережень тренувальної вибірки матимуть значення передбачувальних змінних,  майже ідентичні до спостережень затверджувальної вибірки. І деякі з них корелюватимуть з ціллю на рівні, кращому за випадковий, в одному й тому ж напрямку як у тренуванні, так і в затверджуванні, будучи насправді керованими збуреними передбачувачами з поганою зовнішньою застосовністю. Якщо таку перехресно затверджену модель буде обрано з k-кратного набору, то спрацює людське підтверджувальне упередження, визначивши цю модель затвердженою. Ось чому традиційне перехресне затверджування потребує доповнення контролем людського упередження та збитого з пантелику визначення моделі, такого як обмінне вибирання, та перспективне дослідження.

Перехресне затверджування для моделей часових рядів

Оскільки порядок даних є важливим, для моделей часових рядів перехресне затверджування може бути проблематичним. Доречнішим підходом може бути застосування ковзного перехресного затверджування ().

Проте, якщо продуктивність описано єдиною , то, можливо, працюватиме підхід, що було описано Політісом та Романо як . Статистиці натяжки потрібно приймати проміжок часового ряду й повертати зведену статистику на ньому. Виклик стаціонарної натяжки потребує вказування доречної середньої довжини проміжку.

Застосування

Перехресне затверджування можливо використовувати для порівнювання продуктивності різних процедур передбачувального моделювання. Наприклад, припустімо, що нас цікавить оптичне розпізнавання символів, і для розпізнавання справжнього символу з зображення рукописного символу ми розглядаємо використання опорно-векторних машин (ОВМ) та k-найближчих сусідів (kНС). Застосовуючи перехресне затверджування, ми можемо об'єктивно порівняти ці два методи в термінах їхніх відповідних часток неправильно класифікованих символів. Якби ми просто порівняли ці методи на основі їхніх внутрішньовибіркових рівнів похибки, то, швидше за все, продуктивність методу kНС виглядала би кращою, оскільки від є гнучкішим, і відтак стійкішим до перенавчання в порівнянні з методом ОВМ.

Перехресне затверджування також можливо застосовувати в обиранні змінних. Припустімо, що ми використовуємо рівні експресії 20 білків, щоби передбачувати, чи відреагує пацієнт з раком на певні ліки. Однією з практичних цілей буде визначити, яку підмножину з 20 ознак слід використовувати для вироблення найкращої передбачувальної моделі. Для більшості процедур моделювання, якщо ми порівнюємо підмножини ознак, використовуючи внутрішньовибіркові рівні похибки, найкраща продуктивність досягатиметься при використанні всіх 20 ознак. Проте за перехресного затверджування модель із найкращою допасованістю в загальному випадку включатиме лише підмножину ознак, які вважаються справді інформативними.

Нещодавнім розширенням медичної статистики стало її застосування в метааналізі. Вона формує основу статистики обґрунтованості (), Vn, яку використовують, щоби випробовувати статистичну обґрунтованість підсумкових оцінок метааналізу. Її також використовували в метааналізі у звичнішому сенсі, для оцінювання правдоподібної похибки передбачування результатів метааналізу.

Див. також

 Підсилювання (машинне навчання)
 Натяжкове агрегування ()
 Статистична натяжка
 Витік (машинне навчання)
 Обирання моделі

 Обґрунтованість

Зауваження та примітки

Обирання моделі
Обирання змінної регресії
Машинне навчання

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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Whether you're hosting a party, planning a great family dinner, setting the table for a special dessert or even looking for a great online birthday cakes, you'll find plenty of tempting choices. Alongside our famous chocolate strawberries, you'll always discover a host of luxurious bakery treats. From European inspired gateaux and tortes, to restaurant-caliber chocolate mousse cakes, lemon chiffon cakes and bakery offering including cupcakes, brownie delivery and traditional birthday cakes, we have everything to satisfy a hungry appetite. And don't forget about our incredibly creamy cheesecakes and special cheesecake gifts.
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Just like all of our incredible dessert collection, we offer a range of wonderful options that are sure to surprise and delight your love one. We're pulling out all the stops to ensure that our line-up of amazing desserts is truly unbeatable. We do things that other companies can't, like offer you premium cookie delivery along with your cheesecake order for that extra wow when your recipient opens the gift.


I was talking to a close friend of mine who had told me that she wanted closure and truth from someone she thought she knew. She asked question after question and they never answered it, or even responded. She asked me what do I think about this.
I told her that people who does this childish thing, are people who know absolutely nothing about LOVE, and HOW IT WORKS. The POWER for them is having you wait on the answer with the intent of never giving it to you. These people are depressed, and very insecure. Most likely they'll distance themselves from family to only make friends with folks who they feel have MORE POWER than themselves. Those will be the folks who will tell them. they're on the "right track", because people WILL use you. Those kinda folks are sabotagers and have NO IDEA how to fix it in their minds. These people are selfish and very unappreciative. To these NOTHING PEOPLE… its POWER to hold back information that can help the next person to move on. The more you ask them questions.. the longer they will ignore you. They are unhappy and will search high and low for happiness… and it will NEVER come because of how they treated family and people who GENUINE LOVE THEM. These people are MASTER MANIPULATORS… I told her to not worry, OH YESSS… ( in my spooky voice) sit back with your remote control in your hand, and your legs cross…and watch it * come back to them* go down!


text:
Q: Best practice to share the same layout and navigation between modules in ZF 2 In this ZF2 example you can set the layout to be what ever you want in each modules config, but I'd like to know if there's a way to share and organize the same layout and navigation between modules.
e.g. like a template,  load default css, scripts and layout without duplicate layout/layout.phtml and partial/navigation for each module in my project, and then load specific css and scripts in my specific view using $this->headLink()->appendStylesheet() and  $this->headScript()->appendFile()

A: The template_map from your example can be defined in different models. ZF2 will merge all configs in one config array as explained here:

The ModuleManager's ConfigListener aggregates configuration and merges it while modules are being loaded.

So you can define a template map in module A and module B and in the config you will find both template maps merged. This means template names should be unique in the application otherwise you will end up overwriting them.
So in Module A module.config.php:
'view_manager' => array(
    'template_map' => array(
        'layout/layout' => __DIR__ . '/../view/layout.phtml',
        'moduleA/list_view' => __DIR__ . '/../view/list.phtml',
        'moduleA/info_view' => __DIR__ . '/../view/info.phtml',
    ),
)

So in Module B module.config.php:
'view_manager' => array(
    'template_map' => array(
        'moduleB/list_view' => __DIR__ . '/../view/list.phtml',
        'moduleB/info_view' => __DIR__ . '/../view/info.phtml',
    ),
)

You will end up with a merged template_map containing all:
'layout/layout' => __DIR__ . '/../view/layout.phtml',
'moduleA/list_view' => __DIR__ . '/../view/list.phtml',
'moduleA/info_view' => __DIR__ . '/../view/info.phtml',
'moduleB/list_view' => __DIR__ . '/../view/list.phtml',
'moduleB/info_view' => __DIR__ . '/../view/info.phtml'

And now you will be able to access these views throughout your whole application.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
George Award winners announced: Here's the list
The winners of the George Awards for 2017 have been decided.
Justin Andert, creator of Color the Creek
Nikki Asher, and Jesse and Heather Volstromer, who started BC Batters, a T-ball team for kids with special needs
Mark Doubleday, renovator of the Quonset Hut, which provides theater and event space in Athens
Cheryl Roberts, a longtime community volunteer who will be recognized for her work organizing networking groups for young professionals and women
Kurt Thornton, for his work preserving Battle Creek history
George Awards honor people who take the initiative to start a project that is beneficial to their community.
Last year's winner:George Award: Dr. Michael Glass is delivering diapers
Stay tuned for profiles of the winners, which will run in the newspaper this month.
This year's selection committee included Patty Miller, Bill Broderick and Annie Kelley.
Winners will be honored at a ceremony on April 25. Those who have won in the past and have not received an invitation, contact Kelley at 269-966-0675 or email akelley@battlecreekenquirer.com.


The boom of guns and bullets being fired may dominate the soundtrack of the movie, but the cast and crew of Lanka had a first-hand experience of being in the line of fire.
While shooting in a remote highway near Bijnor in Uttar Pradesh, they were rattled by gunshots fired by the villagers. Manoj Bajpai, Arjan Bajwa and Tia Bajpai form part of the cast.
Says director Maqbool Khan, "It was scary, as we had not encountered anything like this. We had just packed up late in the night and were leaving the place. Suddenly guns went booming at intermittent intervals.
We were wondering why they were firing shots at us. Perhaps it was a case of mistaken identity." He adds, "Some of the other crew members were tailing us in their vehicles, so we had to warn them of the impending danger ahead!"
The debutant director adds, "When we got off from our cars and asked the passers-by, they told us that it was a routine occurrence in the night.
The villagers fire shots in the air to ward off animals from their fields as well as trespassers. This was their way of a security cover from unwanted danger!" Luckily for them they only had punctured tyres to contend with.
Why did Amitabh Bachchan make Manoj Bajpai speechless on their first meeting?


text:
C/M Tiffany Thomas to lead PVAMU in national COVID-19 initiative
by Aswad Walker May 31, 2022 May 31, 2022
Houston City Councilmember and PVAMU professor Tiffany Thomas.
Prairie View A&M University alumna, program coordinator and assistant professor of community development in PVAMU's School of Architecture, Tiffany Thomas, is also a Houston city councilmember. Not only that, she is the UNCF's John and Drucie Chase Young Builders Award winner, which annually honors a leader in education for efforts inside and outside the classroom.
But the good news doesn't stop there.
Thomas' educational leadership efforts also earned her a $292,039, two-year grant from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS). The grant is part of a $2.25 billion national initiative to address COVID-19 health disparities among underserved and high-risk populations, including racial and ethnic minority populations and rural communities.
"The grant is funded by the DHHS through CDC to engage with the Waller County community due to low COVID-19 vaccine rates," said Thomas. "However, the genesis of the partnership began in 2018 when I completed a needs assessment for the city of Prairie View with my Introduction to Community Development course."
Thomas said the project will include more creative ways to assess community driven priorities for the overall Waller County.
"This information will be valuable when assessing how Waller County can respond to the diverse needs in a diverse and growing county—bilingual, rural, agriculture and neighborhoods with limited technology," added Thomas whose community service also includes being Houston's District B representative on City Council.
"Our work will focus on engaging with the Waller County community and learning how they would prefer to receive information and communication in and out of a pandemic. We will also host in-person and virtual sessions to learn more about their priorities," Thomas said. "It's something I'm really excited to be involved with."
And that $292K will not just allow Thomas to continue her good work, but also support PVAMU students.
"The $292K will support me, as principal investigator and three student researchers to support engagement activities to include data collection, public facing community meetings and a presentation to DHHS of a community directory and recommendations from every day residents," said Thomas.
Another point of pride for Thomas and her alma mater is that PVAMU is the only Texas HBCU that's part of the initiative.
"The hope is that when Waller County is presented with an additional funding opportunity, they (Commissioners) will have the data and people-driven information to make the best decision. This is significant for PVAMU because as an 1890-founded institution, our mission is explicit in extending resources and information to the surrounding areas—essentially serving as an institution of public good."
Thomas views this as an incredible opportunity to extend the institution's reach across the county. Rural areas, she noted, don't enjoy the same governmental resources or access points for health or health information.
"This is an opportunity for the community development graduate program to raise our profile, put out meaningful research and go into rural communities – something we have not focused on in the last few years," said Thomas. "We have an opportunity to become an authority on the rural community that surrounds us, and as a land grant institution, this helps us amplify our original mission."
Thomas, whose work includes the creation of a rural community needs assessment tool to influence health outcomes, said that her program's relationship with the Texas Department of State Health Services dates from 2018, when she and one of her classes performed a community needs assessment for the City of Prairie View.
"The agency was really interested in doing a lot of outreach in Waller County but didn't have an apparatus to do so," Thomas said. "So, we started this relationship and began sharing information. Of course, with COVID, the CDC initiated some funding with the state department of health. Our region's COVID vaccination rate was not as competitive as others."
The CDC's announcement of the initiative noted evidence showing that "racial and ethnic minority groups and people living in rural communities have disproportionate rates of chronic diseases that can increase the risk of becoming severely ill from COVID-19. They may also encounter barriers to testing, treatment or vaccination."
The funding, "which represents CDC's largest investment to date to support communities affected by COVID-19-related health disparities," marks a move toward greater health equity.
"This grant isn't your typical research project," said Thomas. "We will activate engaged research methods to support, outline and communicate the priorities of the greater Waller County community with the hope that if there is future funding, Waller County will be able to quickly apply and receive support based on our initial work. With COVID-19 fatigue and most of the nation transitioning back to pre-pandemic times, we have an opportunity to have a broader conversation in general about how residents would like to receive information related to a pandemic, vaccinations, disaster recovery and even social services."
"Secondly, how can we inform officials in the county on the next steps in terms of what they need to do in order to prepare? Is it creating a dashboard, is it utilizing a county-wide text system like they use in Harris County, and is it important to do so in multiple languages?"
Thomas and others in the community development program have had ongoing discussions about the project's flexibility—the CDC intended to center the initiative on COVID-19 and then decided to add influenza.
"We know we will have to pivot a number of times throughout 2022 and 2023," Thomas said. "But everybody's excited, and I'm particularly looking forward to our students being able to participate in real, engaged work that will benefit our state and region. I am also appreciative of the support from Waller County Judge and the commissioners as they are key partners in this work."
Thomas hopes to have preliminary results to Waller County by May 2023.
Texas officials: $45M federal grant to address pandemic health inequities
BLM launches Survival Fund amid federal COVID-19 relief wait
Federal government slashes grants to help Texans get health insurance


An arbitration agreement is supposed to be designed to keep everyone out of court. Then why is it that so many end up being settled in a messy and expensive lawsuit?
The agreement was part of a general handbook. When companies try to blend an agreement with other policies, some courts see that as an attempt to camouflage the terms of the agreement from employees. The lesson: Arbitration agreements should be free-standing documents.
The agreement didn't clearly compel both parties to waive their right to sue. So a faulty agreement might say the employee is waiving the right to go to court, but places no such stipulation on the employer. That's one-sided and a legal no-no.
The agreement stipulated that employees will have to pay excessive costs as a condition of arbitrating their claims. An agreement that places a heavy financial burden on an employee is often seen as coercion to keep the employee from actually filing for arbitration. Courts have ruled that employees are expected to pay some reasonable costs or fee. But the key word is reasonable.
For a full review of the relevant court cases and rulings, go to Baker Donelson's Web site.
Amen. Tort reform will remove a litany of excesses and provide more freedom to the employers in their efforts to make money and improve the lives of the employees.
How many times do we have to put up with a bully or "deadwood" at work because the person can't be fired. In the good old days – if you didn't work out, no one hired you.


A great website is more than words. It should reflect the nature of the business and offer things that customer wants. A handy and easy-to-navigate website always earn its share of love and fame among the already crowded market. Just as content is important to convey the message, designing holds its importance to gain attention and other important aspects, which most websites tend to overlook and fail to run their successful juggernaut.
Website's online visage is created by a notch above web design. Often web designer asks about your views on web design. Firstly, question may seem irrelevant, but everyone has likes and dislikes – and same goes for web design. By providing the information and your views on how you want it to look, web designer works in the direction to carve out the perfect design, which can resonate with your experience and to your business's nature as well.
If your company has already established branding, then, while designing a new website, those elements should be considered because it can instantly influence the new visitors and can lead to sales conversion. From already established logo, color scheme, fonts, taglines and your views help web designer, and he can create a stunning visual appearance, adding more and yet keeping the essence of your business success that can glue any visitor to the website.
However, in the case of new organization or rebranding process, you may want to explore different ideas to create a long time or lifelong image of your company because that established branding will be used on the website, and on printed material used internally and publically.
In the end, devote time in creating a logo masterpiece. It's the heart of your branding and everyone, at least, notice the logo of company and judge its level of work through its logo choice. It should be out of the league, yet clearly representing the message.
Often business owners think that don't have good sense in choosing or referring design when it comes to their website, or they aren't creative at all, which help their designers to capture the attention of the visitors. Hence, you always have suggestions and preference based on the things you see on a daily basis. When it comes to own business, people may boggle; however, while sharing views on other things, they always become a creative powerhouse.
Believing that branding may be out of your control, but still you have a large area to focus that can be influenced by your vision and experience or views. You have two choices; either to make your website open or make it close. Both depend on the client's taste and preference that can resonate with business's dealing and web designer can incorporate all the necessary tabs, navigation to redirect the visitor to the right path.
There's nothing wrong or right in choosing either of them. Both work fine, and it all depends on the person who wants to get a website build. However, the web designer can tell, which may work better, if you give him examples regarding what you like. It's all about giving him an idea of a story to a writer that you want to read. If you don't tell a writer anything about the story, how we can write anything that will tingle your heart.
Moreover, while pinpointing some examples to acquire in your web design, make sure, you don't copy everything from other websites and end up stirring features of those websites into your own. Hence, create some features or look that are not common – and which can really gain the attention of the visitors. For example, Apple Inc. They really know how to design everything using white medium and still can bring perpetual success rate to their website and enjoy healthy traffic on a daily basis. However, not everyone is Apple and you don't really need to be. You have to BE, just to create your own space.
Remember what granny used to say when you would ask more sweets, and she would say less is more because more can decay your teeth. Isn't it? Okay, Okay, granny not always said it. She would fill your pockets with more, but, it was just to remind you about the message. Similarly, in web designing world, often the phrase proves to be the bull's eye.
The biggest tech company of the world, 'Apple' is the prime example of keeping things simple, yet has become apple of everyone's eyes. How they do it? They are true maestros in doing marketing and know how the importance and role of web design for the successful marketing campaigns.
If you ask your designer, he would love to create a consistent designing page that can display readable content and can adhere to current and evergreen standards, yet making an appeal of being completely professional to the visitors. Moreover, you web designer will want to highlight key areas, which interests' audience.
You can either push contact information or you can push your social media presence by displaying social media buttons on various pages for the better redirection of the traffic. It's all up to you to decide how you want to the visitors to connect with you.
However, keep in mind, filling every empty space with your contact information or social media buttons can do more harm than you can imagine. Be wise and use the empty space to fill that matters the most – to your audience and can help in sales generation.
Sometimes, letting professionals do their work after you have shared your preference and views is one of the most professional ways to get the work going in a smooth flow. Your hire web designing team or an individual web designer is actively working in the field for years and has worked on numerous projects already before putting their hands on yours. Hence, they often have the suggestions what will work, and what won't, if you allow the freedom of speech and place your trust in their talent to know the final results will be remarkable and stunning.
Learn the 'best practices' trade and listen to the maestro often because sometimes their suggestions can make a huge impact on your business success. Nonetheless, most of the designers will crave to make an appealing and attractive web design because no professional wants to fall their working standards.


The CHS class album of 1969 has 798 students with 636 students in the Bruceton School and 162 students in the Hollow Rock School.
The numbers by class are listed with each class. This yearbook has numerous misspelled names. I did not correct the names.


Baobab Protein- Extracted from the fruit seeds of the African 'Tree Of Life' it contains very high levels of Vitamin E and anti-oxidants. Promotes the forming of collagen and elastin, and helps protect against UV stress to maintain healthy, supple and smooth skin and reduce lines, wrinkles and other signs of ageing.
Hemp Seed Oil- Rich in protein, unsaturated fats, Omega 3 + 6, Vitamin E and important minerals, Hemp Oil is fantastic in the treatment of dry and damaged skin. It helps smooth, nourish and hydrate the skin.
The distinctive, subtle scent is a refreshing blend of mandarin and sweet orange peel, infused with provocative cederwood and rosemary leaf essential oils.


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