text:
12 big wins from leaving in March on WTO terms
December 28, 2018 300 Comments
1 Far from crashing out, we will be cashing in.We will get our money back to spend on our priorities. We will be better off.
2 We get control of our taxes allowing us to cut VAT along with other taxes. This will boost our growth rate and give all taxpayers a Brexit bonus.
3.We can hire more nurses, doctors, teachers, and police, and improve our social care with money saved from the EU
4. We can sign new trade agreements with the rest of the world to boost the majority of our trade currently with non EU countries.
5. We can remove tariffs on imported components to provide a boost to UK manufacturing.
6. We can restore and expand our fishing and fish processing industry.
7. We can have a farming and tariff policy that means we grow much more of food locally, cutting the food miles.
8. We can control migration and have a policy good for UK business and society.
9. We can make our own laws and refuse EU ones which are damaging.
10. We will end all the uncertainty for business
11. We can end the rows and the wild and usually pessimistic speculation about Brexit. We can turn to talking about other natters, and bring the nation together in discussing how to use the money and freedoms we have gained from exit.
12. We will become a self governing democracy again.
Leaving the EU us not a threat or a disease, but a huge opportunity.
I share your view. However it is not the view that prevails in the media and, especially in BBC broadcasts. There we we hear unremitting doom and gloom. I also read of the forces of opposition that seek to use parliamentary votes and procedures to frustrate Brexit – my MP, Dominic Grieve, prominent among them. It has also been suggested that Speaker Bercow will use the power of his office to frustrate Brexit. It is said that a majority of MPs are Remainers. An almighty parliamentary battle lies ahead given the fundamental differences on view. Let us hope they can be resolved peaceably, respecting the referendum result, without those differences spilling on to the streets.
Let us indeed hope that the 200 MPs who absurdly still have confidence in the appalling, duplicitous Theresa May (who is still pushing her worse than remain deal) can be made to see reality. Her deal or another referendum would both be a disaster for trust in politics, the UK and particularly for the Conservative party. Corbyn would be a further disaster on top. Her deal is absolutely appalling, this even if the back stop were removed. It is totally unacceptable.
How could any sensible person even suggest it? It is very likely to spill onto the streets should May and the remainers get their way.
We will certainly leave in the end anyway.
Susan Willoughby
Surly there has to be a reason why she is so hell bent on getting this disaster of a deal through no matter what the price. I think we have to go back to when she persuaded
NISSAN car industry to remain in Britain & everyone said at the time How did she do it & how much would it cost us well maybe that answer was to stop BREXIT wich is why she can't ditch this deal GOD HELP US ALL 😡
Iain Crew
Just as a idea to consider. It is entirely possible that Theresa May has been following a pathway to Brexit to (a) keep onside the majority of MPs in the current Parliament who are Europhiles and (b) for the purposes of keeping the EU friendly(ish) towards the UK.
To show goodwill to the EU, Theresa May has had to show the EU that she supports the EU Deal otherwise the mistrust between the EU and the UK could become quite toxic to the point that the thuggish EU become even more hostile.
Perhaps, and this is only my perspective, Theresa May, who has always said exactly that "Brexit means Brexit" and "Leaving the EU means leaving the Single Market and Authority of the ECJ" saw firsthand how self-centred the eu27 were going to be towards the UK over leaving the Club that she has, quite secretly, been planning leaving the EU without a Deal all along.
The secrecy is to keep the HoC docile and try to reach Brexit Day without delay or cancellation by the HoC Remainer MPs who openly want to see the EU Referendum overturned and subverted
Jean Romsey
I hope you are right, Iain Crew, however, what you say does not tally with why she is spending the Christmas holiday trying to get her MPs to vote for her 'deal'. If she were hoping to deliver Brexit in her way, she should have left her 'deal' in mid air, as she did with most of everything she has ever undertaken, even as a former Home Secretary, her dealings with the European Court of Justice left a lot to be desired and most of the foreign terrorists and criminals remained in British jails to this day.
Ian Ashw
"surely"?
L Jones
It is still galling that MPs should allow themselves to be styled "remainers" when the label in is contradiction of that which the country voted for. If they'd simply been honourable and united for our country's good (and not their own self interests) we'd have been fast approaching a golden age, instead of stuck in this mire of uncertainty.
They take their stance from the EU's – "you voted the wrong way and we'll make sure you learn the lesson".
Congratulations on your knighthood, news of which made my day. About time, and thoroughly deserved in your case.
JR, May's servitude plan is so absurd there has to be reason for it. No right minded person could think this delivers Brexit. It is worse than staying in. Therefore is this the real reason behind this absurd plan? May has broken her word and lied on do many occasions it begs the question why?
Each time it comes back to the same thing she is trying every deceit and trick to keep the U.K. in the EU. It does not take two and half years to reach this point. The U.K. has no benefit from the plan whatsoever. There was no compromise as our side got nothing!
We voted for a clean WTO break with a viewo to talk about trade, not stay in under EU control paying vast sums of money having n voice, veto ECJ still applying, ECHR applying, giving away control of our army and promising forever not to be more competitive than the EU! This is a rotten terrible plan not the trade deal promised.
May has betrayed the nation, acted like a traitor and it must be brought to an end. With or without party.
I agree that Parliament is largely Remain and at odds with the majority of the electorate who voted Leave. Whatever happens we need a major exercise to 'drain the swamp' in this country too.
At odds with public and MPs are totally wrong. Just as they are wrong over climate alarmism, tax levels, counter productive wars, open door immigration and the endless government waste and bonkers red tape everywhere you care to look. Alas being an MP attracts largely misguided lefty, pro EU, tax borrow and waste dopes.
Almost all have no understanding of science, economics, energy, human nature or logic either. Just listen to them debating on these areas. The Lords are even worse. Do any MPs have a decent STEM degree now that the excellent Peter Lilley has left? Perhaps one or two I suppose at best.
Oldtimer, If we end up stuck in the EU even after we voted to Leave, then not only has the compact between rulers and ruled broken down, but the UK Parliament (and a UK civil service) will have become completely pointless.
Fred Carter
Look on the bright side, if MP's in London decide that we should continue to be governed by the EU then they all become superfluous and Westminster can be disbanded… how many billions would that save?
@oldtimer; I take it that you do not monitor what Ch4 News or Sly News channel are doing when it comes to reporting Brexit?! 🙁
Nut Wracker Sweet
It is raising a serious question of whether The Commons is a valid vehicle of democracy and governance in this Representative Democracy. Which is sad. Which could be dangerous.
The House could have made miraculous headway in reasserting the belief in Parliament which, was faded well before the Referendum Vote. Mrs May is intent on destroying Parliament itself and puts her negotiations as achieving and enhancing the spirit of the vote. She should get off spirits and stick to half a larger and a bag of nuts.
The BBC is absurdly out of line with public opinion (the people who are forced to pay for it). About five remainer people or stories to every one pro Brexit on any political or news programme on the BBC and all the presenters on side too. All good news is "despite Brexit" and all bad "due to fears over Brexit". Andrew Neil the only one who takes an independent and balanced line of questioning. BBC even more idiot and biased on climate alarmism too.
Why on earth did the BBC have Angelina Joli as guest editor today. In a long interview she said lots of words, platitudes and phrases but conveyed no coherent meaning at all with any of them. Do you have to go to special actor training course to talk for a long time and but say nothing of any substance or meaning at all?
She was even worse than Baroness Lane-Fox of Soho yesterday.
GilesB
13. We can have an industrial policy that enables us to encourage and support innovation and sunrise industries, and avoid the loss of human dignity and social welfare costs of the sudden collapse of companies in sunset industries, without the arbitrary whims of EU state aid rules
14. We can encourage the development and expansion of world-leading companies, without the heavy hand of EU competition policy.
15. We can maintain our own foreign policy and control of our military with full support for NATO.
16. We will light a beacon for the oppressed millions across the south of Europe struggling with crippling unemployment, tanking economies, deliberately impossible loan conditions and crushed democracies.
margaret howard
Where? What beacon are we to European countries when we give our OAPs just about the lowest pension of any of them?
Old people unable to keep themselves warm
People sleeping in doorways.
Youngsters being carers because of cuts in social services
The list is endless.
And being at the heart of government JR must know he is talking poppycock.
Reply So how do all these bad things happen whilst we are full members of the EU?
Unable to keep warm – that is largely due to expensive "renewable" energy as a deliberate government policy and the absurd climate change act that nearly every MP thought was just great.
Martin R
Come on. You can't have a shiny new toy train set (that no one needs) costing £100 Bn, hundreds of billions on windmills and solar panels (that no one needs), billions on foreign aid, billions squandered on keeping the EU in the style to which it is accustomed, billions on umpteen boondoggles, smart meters, etc., and still expect to pay OAP's enough to keep the wolf from the door. Be reasonable, we've got to get our priorities right!
Reply to reply
Because they have nothing to do with EU membership. It is up to individual governments to decide how to treat its citizens. How else for instance do we have the lowest old age pensions in the EU?
If you believe any of this will change after Brexit you are in for a very rude awakening.
Martin. What a brilliant reply. And John, just what I was going to say. We are in the EU so not really great anyway.
Margaret – Where? Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy. In Greece tens of thousands of homes repossessed to pay interest to the ECB, and pensions for government ex-employees slashed by 50%. In Crete ordinary people's bank accounts given a compulsory haircut of 40 to 80%.
France effectively bankrupt. President Macron fighting to keep the Troika out. Were France as economically insignificant as Greece it would be in already.
We may have issues of social policy but they are trivial compared with those the EU has imposed on its own debtor nations. Depend on it, this is not a nice organisation.
"Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy. In Greece tens of thousands of homes repossessed"
You really ought to keep up. Let me enlighten you a little. I have just read an article in the Times about conditions in Greece today.
Here is the gist of it:
"Last year the economy grew by 1.4 per cent – the most since before the financial crisis erupted in late 2009 – and in the first quarter of this year by another 2 per cent, making Greece one of Europe's fastest growing economies.
Unemployment which hit 30 per cent in 2013 is down ten points. Innovating start ups are springing up and tourism is bringing in record revenues.
After lurching for years from one emergency summit to another, Mr Tsipras has even managed to pull off two government bond sales this year."
And so forth. No doubt the other countries you mention are doing just as well.
You really ought to keep your records up to date.
Reply Real incomes still more than 20% below 2007 levels! Mass unemployment with very high youth unemployment. Why are you happy with this?
Reply to reply:
Daily Telegraph:
"Why Britain's state pension is 'one of the worst in Europe"
The chart that shows how British state retirement payouts rank below Greek, Austrian, Cypriot – and pensions in most other Continental nations
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/11189414/Why-Britains-state-pension-is-one-of-the-worst-in-Europe.html
Why is your government happy with this?
As regards unemployment the article states:
"Unemployment which hit 30 per cent in 2013 is down ten points"
The article goes on:
"making Greece one of Europe's fastest growing economies"
How do we compare?
And are you happy with this?
There are MORE food banks in Germany than the UK
29,000 are homeless in and around Paris
BBC Fact Check Quote
"UK pensioners can expect slightly more money from the government than their European counterparts, although comparing gross figures doesn't take into account different average incomes and cost of living in these four countries."
6 EU countries have no minimum wage
10 Have a minimum wage of 2Euros per hour or less
"The plight of seniors abandoned in Spanish hospitals
Medical officials say some families fail to pick up elderly relatives on discharge" newspaper headline in Spain
How come you voted for something you dont have the faintest clue about ?
You really ought to read my posting before you reply.
I was challenging eeyore's claim that:
"16. We will light a beacon for the oppressed millions across the south of Europe struggling with crippling unemployment, tanking economies, deliberately impossible loan conditions and crushed democracies"
Once again, the conditions you mention in other EU countries prove that the EU does not interfere in the politics of other members – something you and the other Brexiteers constantly bang on about.
Hilarious comment Margaret.
It is plain to see the political and economic interference by the EU in countries like Greece Italy Cyprus Portugal and Spain.
Sadly I did read your deluded post and I proved you wrong with some facts, you responded with a newspaper headline , one I might add that contradicts a post you made about Greece a week or so ago..
The conditions in those other countries are bought about by the EURO margaret … Interference Margaret, Telling Italy ( but nor France) that they infringe economic rules. etc
Still amazed you voted for something you dont understand
Good additions, especially the last one, so often overlooked. I get the impression that there are unelected bureaucrats in the EU itching to stitch their ugly flag on our tunics and paint it on our equipment. Petty-fogging EU cadres WILL start a war because they CAN when they control other peoples military.
16). Oh, look, a unicorn.
Andy, It's the first I heard that New Zealand is a unicorn.
Jiminyjim
Oh look, a typically factless and idiotic response from Andy
Glenn Vaughan
" 16). Oh, look, a unicorn." Andy
17.) Oh, look, an idiot.
Why not most other coubtries in the world are able to exercise those powers? Yet, you talk of 'unicorns' – totally deluded.
It is very very concerning how deeply our armed forces have already been committed to co-operation with the new 'EU army'. By Mrs May.
Timaction
More dishonest underhanded behaviour by this awful Prime Minister, possibly the worst in history if her withdrawal agreement gets through. Her Cabinet are also a disgrace.
May is certainly do her best to be worse than Major, Heath, Blair, Brown and Cameron who were all absolutely appalling leaders. Quite some achievement for her. Thatcher was hugely superior to May and the above but even she made load some very basic errors (failing to cut taxes or waste sufficiently or sort out the NHS or welfare culture). Wilson made many mistakes too, but he did at least keep us out of Vietnam.
Pity this will end after Brexit. After all no EU army would have used us as a willing partner in illegal wars and invasions as the US has done starting with Iraq.
You certainly have a high opinion of your EU masters, Margaret. On what do you base this idea that "no EU army would have used us"? The EU would "use us" whenever and wherever they wish if we don't shake off the shackles.
Do you REALLY believe that the EU wishes us to stay under its boot for our own good? Do you think it fears for our future should we go it alone? Does it wish to protect us from ourselves? It's never come across as altruistic, though you obviously think it is.
Nothing to do with the fact that we've got the stuff the EU wants?
"The EU would "use us" whenever and wherever they wish if we don't shake off the shackles."
Can you provide us with an example? After over 40 years of membership I can't recall a single incident where the EU has 'used us' in the way you imply.
Margaret Howard said: "After over 40 years of membership I can't recall a single incident where the EU has 'used us' …"
At current rates every single year bar one the UK has paid about £10bn more than the EU deigns to give us back. That's 40+ "incidents".
I was referring to BOF's claim that:
Any examples?
Or invading Ukraine eh Margaret?
Well the EU has been very agressive vocally towards Russia and its action in Ukraine
In my opinion if the EU had its own armed forces the Commission would have deployed them into action.
Would you consider that to be another illegal war?
Drew D.
"13. We can have an industrial policy that enables us to encourage and support innovation and sunrise industries, and avoid the loss of human dignity and social welfare costs of the sudden collapse of companies in sunset industries,"
So Giles B, you want the Blue Scum and the New Red Scum in the HoC to stand up and admit that all their non-support for those industries over the past 40 years was wrong? Do you see globalists like Redwood rushing to dump money into UK industry? He'd have to admit that 40 years of neo-liberal, globalist policies so beloved of Blues and Reds has smashed huge chunks of the UK.
You fail to realise Drew that it is the EU that drives globalism.
hans christian ivers
Every business drives globalism not state institutions, get it right
It isn't right hans.
Big business and global corporations love the EU.
The EU doesn't like nation states they like no borders and they have a global vision.
One European superstate ruled from the centre.
Er are you sure ? There are 5.8 million businesses in the UK, 92% of them do no business outside the UK .
Dictionary definition of globalism
The operation or planning of economic and foreign policy on a global basis.
I think you'll find that 5.75 million businesses have no say in this "planning" what so ever
@GilesB; Regarding your #13, it is not just sunrise industries that need encouragement, many of the so called existing or possible sunset industries just need the correct support to survive, often the same support our competitors already receive in their own countries, once fully out of the EU such help can be given here in the UK.
There also needs to be far less bureaucracy for SME's and sole traders.
Talking of SME/Sole Traders, perhaps how business rates are calculated and applied could finally be reformed as part of any post WTO Brexit taxation review? I know that such relief can be awarded to those who qualify but for many applying for it means diverting resources away from the core business activities, not to mention all the uncertainty it brings.
Dealing with anything from government means diverting resources away from the core business activities. Government red tape, over taxation, over complex taxation, red tape, expensive energy, daft employment laws and a lack of competition in banking are reasons the UK is constantly held back in productivity terms.
Then the people who cause this like Hammond and May complain about the productivity problem!
I don't understand what's not to like. Let's just get on with it instead of stalling. 2019 is the year of opportunity. The government promised to uphold the vote. A once in a lifetime opportunity and now they are trying everything to go against it. Parliament is also trying to deny our democratic rights. It must not be allowed to happen.
Fedup, I think Theresa May stands in front of her mirror every morning and repeats to herself 30 times: "My Withdrawal Agreement delivers the Brexit people voted for". After the last 6 months (Chequers was 6 July) she almost believes it.
Sarcasm does not suit at all
You sound like my mum
Baz Lloyd
What a depressing list of socialist, protectionist, spend – spend – spend, borrow – borrow – borrow, proposals from John Redwood. It's like going back to the 1970s.
Doesn't he ever go a week without coming up with more schemes for yet more spending on public 'services' and more borrowing to ruin future generations?
Only in the last two weeks the OBR has revealed that the already huge budget deficit and national debt has been understated by almost the entire amount of the money we'll save from leaving the EU.
And despite their alleged expertise on every subject under the sun, not one single spending fanatic MP, raised the fact that the public accounts didn't recognise that nearly half of the Student Loan book will never be repaid.
Most normal members of the public will tell you that they know of numerous people who have no hope of repaying their loans.
But John Redwood's already has plans to spend the same money over and over again ad infinitum.
We do not need taxes on imported food to ensure we 'grow more food' any more than we need tariffs to force mine coal here to tax foreign holidays force people to stay here for their holidays.
What's John Redwood proposing? Going back to the Corn Laws?
It's called 'trade' and the more we buy and sell the better off we all get. The advantage of leaving the EU is that we can get rid of tariffs, not introduce or increase them.
We're all better off if we do things which earn us the most money, for us to buy things from whoever's selling them the cheapest.
I see little benefit in repeating ad infinitum the benefits and risks of sovereign independence for the UK. We've been down this road so many times before. What democrats are now looking for is direction, neh a road map about how pro-UK MPs intend to confront and defeat those Parliamentary forces that are determined to reverse the majority result declared in 2016 and in the process transfer ever greater powers over to an arrogant, detestable clique in Parliament and unelected cabal in Whitehall, Brussels and Berlin.
There are too many Tory MPs treating issue as if it were a party issue. It isn't a party issue at all. This is about the future of British democracy and the fundamental nature of our Parliamentary system. This issue transcends party boundaries but it seems we have a Commons packed with a salariat only too willing to vote in a manner that protects their personal status. I find that offensive on so many levels considering the nature and magnitude of what's at stake
Unfortunately for British democrats there's been an obvious and antediluvian shift in attitudes of the political elite to democracy and the nature of power. As seen by Grieve and those like him (and there are many populated across the entire body politic and within the wider western world). They appear to believe that important decisions should be taken without reference to the people and that we should simply accept that democracy itself as its role but that role should be a limited one. That is a very dangerous attitude to adopt and Mr Grieve and his ilk need to remember what happens to nations when those in power abuse their authority and do it shamelessly and without regard
If reports that this clown of a Speaker intends to use an archaic Parliamentary procedure to stop Brexit are true then surely Brexit MPs would have no choice but to trigger a constitutional crisis using similar methods
Why I do find bizarre is our esteemed host's continual reassertion of the benefits of leaving the EU as though our leaving is a fait accompli. He knows full well that the odds of the UK leaving the EU have fallen considerably and that British democrats will be defeated by an anti-democratic establishment coup
This government falls or Brexit is dead
James bertram
Duncan – I liked this post, so much so, that I've just sent it to my Remain/May/Rudd supporting Conservative MP with the note 'If the cap fits…'
No 13 We can learn to say NO instead of yes to everything without question from the Eu, also we won't have politicians whining that it's not there fault but Brussels when things go wrong so they won't have that easy cop out to fall back on
Mick, Learn to say "NO"? Sacrilege!! Andy says: "Think of the cheeeeeeeeldrennn!!!"
Nick C – Andy actually says "Think of my children ".
Prigger
Round and about in my real world rock-solid Labour Party locality, I get the drift by speaking to non-political people who I actually have never met before, I have an alsation who needs walks, that people don't take any heed to Mr Hammond's "People didn't vote to become poorer" and they respond with merely a grimace. Multiple explanations, when they bother to talk about him at all are along the lines of "I don't care if I'm poorer!"
Yes. Remain always try to shift the argument onto economic issues. That's not the reason for the Leave vote, but they keep trying to pretend that it is with the "Nobody voted to be poorer" tripe.
I'm happy to be poorer to get out, but I expect to be better off.
Everyone in UK with an iota of sense would thoroughly agree with this diagnosis.
Where we disagree is how long it will take to get there.
A sudden break, after 40 years of integration at a very deep level, would cause massive haemorrage and probably kill the patient. A slow, careful EU-ectomy with a scalpel under the anaesthetic of the EFTA bloc and EEA Agreement would allow the patient to survive and prosper once the Free Trade idea gradually took over in an increasingly nationalistic EU.
This might take decades. But the end is the same
Paul Getty
So, your point 4 says it is great to sign trade agreements with the rest of the world, but you want to tear up our existing ones with the EU. Utterly illogical. Why do you hate Europe so much, with you it is a disease
Reply Not so. No wish to tear up trade agreement with the EU.Have always said lets carry on trading free of all tariffs!
We are a net importer from the EU so if we had to trade on WTO tariffs, which are nowhere near the levels they were at in 1973, we would show a profit, AND we would get to keep the money instead of having to send it to the EU as presently happens with tariffs collected under the CET.
Cost of UK EU membership per person per day – 37p.
Benefit of UK EU membership per person per day – £3.35.
Swings and roundabouts.
£90 billion annual trade deficit.
Expensive set of swings and roundabouts
Paul Getty, Because having a "trade agreement" (strictly a customs union) with the EU stops us having our own trade agreements with all the nations of the rest of the world. So, very logical. Why are you transfixed by the EU so much, with you it is a disease?
NickC,
Wrong we have trade agreements with a significant part of the World through the Eu already another 17% of our exports look it up
Only through the EU hans
We cannot have our own.
Actually that's not correct. You look it up.
As ever, remainers make an unsubstantiated statement and try to get other people running around doing the research. If you've got something to say, then YOU provide justification for your position.
Also, what we do already have… is as negotiated by the EU. Some of which are not very good for us since they need to satisfy 28 economies, not only us and the other party to each deal.
I think you need to look it up again
Hans, Wrong. As usual. You are cherry picking. The "trade agreements" (RTAs) negotiated by the EU are not stand alone agreements. They are negotiated within the WTO framework, must comply with the WTO system, and are registered at the WTO. They cannot be used outside the WTO rules.
Only WTO global trading rules are sufficient and necessary. The WTO's remit is to work towards lowering all tariffs and NTBs to zero. It allows temporary RTAs (like the EU's single market/customs union itself) to exist on sufferance until RTAs are no longer used at all.
@PG; It is not Brexiteers who wish to "tear up trade agreement" between the UK and the EU27, it wasn't the UK who demanded that trade could not be negotiated simultaneously alongside the WA. If trade agreement do get shredded come 23:00hrs 29th March it will be the EU's machine that gets used…
We don't hate Europe, I love to travel and visit Europe, but there is absolutely no need for all the EU nonsense to be able to trade freely without tariffs. We do not need to abrogate our political, social and ecomic freedom to buy/sell things off each othet tariff free!
Where did it say anywhere we wish to tear up agreements with the EU? It is the EU which has these infamous "rules" which oblige all countries to retain a tight fiscal stance unless your country begins with an F and ends with an e. Perhaps the 4 freedoms are crucial unless your country begins with a U and ends with an m?
Rules are rules until they're broken, sunshine. I'm willing to take the risk with the majority of the UK. We're big enough and ugly enough!
Let's make our own trade agreements and give the EU a chance to retain theirs!
Reply to reply. Yes John. I don't understand why everyone thinks trade with the EU will stop. It will go on as normal if people still want to buy from them. We also have the advantage of being able to shop elsewhere if we want to. It's called freedom.
Literally nobody has said trade will stop. Well except Brexiteer Marcus Fysh who literally made up the idea of a blockade by the EU while he was being interviewed on Newsnight.
What we have said is that your Brexit disrupts trade – by adding bureaucracy and delay which is not currently there. And any disruption to trade will make goods more expensive and will make you poorer.
This is really not a tricky concept to understand though I appreciate it is easier for you to make stuff up than to engage with facts.
"And any disruption to trade will make goods more expensive " Why? Provide some evidence
In 2015 the channel routes between Dover and Calais was closed for 25 consecutive days, prices didn't rise. How long do you think it takes to fill in some extra fields on a computer screen ?
"it is easier for you to make stuff up than to engage with facts."
And where does this "bureaucracy and delay" come from, Andy? Who will introduce it?
Perhaps you should stop fixating on "getting poorer". This is not all about you and your bank balance, for the umpteenth time. This is about our country's well being, not your hopes for a cushy lifestyle.
Article in the Times:
"Brexit means ….. lots of new jobs for senior civil servants:
As Sir Humphrey Appleby memorably remarked in Yes, Minister 'Government doesn't stop just because the country's been destroyed. I mean, annihilation is bad enough without anarchy to make things even worse'.
While politicians argue over the economic impacts of Brexit, is has certainly represented a boom time for the upper echelons of the civil service.
Figures from the Institute for Government (IFG) think tank reveal that the number of the most senior officials in Britain has risen by 10 per cent since preparations to leave the EU began."
No doubt the figures will be replicated a thousandfold across the country.
It MIGHT make trade with the EU more complicated.
But imports from the rest of the world will definitely be much cheaper
Remainers have said we will lose our trade with the EU.
It was a common Project Fear.
Many remainers on this site have claimed similar things.
Tell us why there is no current terrible extra bureaucracy and huge delays when non EU nations send goods into the UK over the last few decades.
No, saving £13bn/year in SM contributions that are currently being paid ion lieu of EU tariffs is the key issue here.
Retailers don't increase prices – they end up undercut by someone else. You 'problem' is a fantasy.
robert lewy
A further benefit would be that we would be able to demonstrate, once the dust had settled,
that with the clear break from the grip of our masters in the EU there is a way for the UK to thrive.
Any other way would be to leave a festering feeling of injustice from Leavers and calumny from Remainers not addressed until the next electoral test of our status in EU.
'A festering feeling of injustice from Leavers' – frankly many, if not most, of you have spent decades being eaten up by your petty grievances with life. Brexit will not help you.
"A festering feeling of injustice from Remainers' – frankly many, if not most, of you have spent decades being eaten up by your petty grievances with life. Brexit will not help you"
Andy, Your entire persona on here consists of you "being eaten up by your petty grievances".
On the matter of immigration I'm very worried by the attitude of MPs of all sides
Too true Robert you are not alone far from it. With the latest of illegal arrivals the MPs have learnt nothing. TURN THEM STRAIGHT ROUND AND SEND THEM BACK. No interviews no nothing.make it common knowledge you are wasting your money in paying to get her illegally. Once the illegals realise this and understand they will be just turned around they are not going to pay on top of risking their lives to come here.
Agree 100%.
Though the French should be sending them back.
Robert Cale
On the matter of immigration I'm very worried by the attitude of MPs of all sides who want to see more 'traditional immigration' from Pakistan and Africa. After Brexit we need to slam the lid down on immigration once and for all, and not merely exchanging EU immigration for Global immigration. The UK should also repatriate all illegal immigrants along with those here legally who do not hold jobs after a certain time or who engage in any form of criminality. The question of Immigration played a big part in helping us get out of the EU. Voters concerns need to be respected.
We appear to be saying welcome to all, because of our silence and non action to all those illegals who have managed to cross the channel recently.
A few mobile phone calls that they were successful, will mean that this form of traffic will grow massively in the coming months.
Once again the Government appears to have no plan or joined up thinking to combat this threat which many of us warned would be the case years ago on this site..
Perhaps we should immediately transport them upon landing to the Refugee camp in the middle east that we are funding to the tune of £ Billion a year, and tell them to wait their turn like others, after applying through the proper channels.
Rest assured Channel crossings will increase if severe action is not taken now.
We can control it however we want. Skills-based immigration which does no harm to the immigrant's country of origin would be a good start, rather than taking any and all from poor EU countries.
Robert. Repatriate? Yes, starting with all the illegal so called refugees that have manage to pay thousands to get to the UK in boats. The numbers are going up every day. This island is under threat and it needs to be sorted. Send them back and make them pay. It's not as if they can't afford it.
F U S
Brilliant entry. You are speaking for thousands
These posts are enough to make decent Britons weep. Genuinely.
Where did your lives go so wrong that you developed such an irrational fear – and arguably hatred – of foreigners? Seriously.
Firstly, get your language right. Illegals are here illegally. They have no right to stay and can be sent home.
Refugees are people who arrive here seeking refuge. Sure they will not all be genuine – but many are. And the kind of things they have had to go through in their life are – luckily for you – unimaginable. War, rape, terror, torture, persecution. Stuff you do not get in whatever grim unpleasant town you live..
How desperate do you have to be to risk your life – and the lives of your children – in a small boat? Desperate enough to know that the alternative is worse. They are not coming here to steal your jobs. To claim a negligible amount of benefit. Or for the friendly natives because, quite clearly, many of you are completely hostile.
Remember – you are just a war or natural disaster away from being a refugee yourself. Treat others as you would wish to be treated should you be unfortunate enough for it to happen to you.
Andy – you are very naive. You are ill-informed and not at all well-read at a guess. You are blinkered to a dangerous degree. There are those of us of mixed race whose parents came here as genuine refugees and who made a good life for their children, and who, as much as anyone whose forbears have lived here for generations, don't want to see the life-boat that was the UK now foundering because of unmanageable numbers.
If you cannot see that it is not about a "hatred of foreigners" – it is about the good of our country, and its well being – then you are seriously deluded.
You are so full of hate that it's disturbing.
and of yours concerning the English ?
To our shame we have our own living on the streets and dependent upon food banks. You might think it's acceptable to ignore their plight while bending over backwards to help foreigners, but thankfully you're in an insignificant minority.
Charity begins at home.
Few illegals are sent home.
There are estimated to be a million illegals here.
Refugees should seek sanctuary in the nearest place of safety.
If they cross many safe nations borders to get to the UK then to me they are economic migrants.
Those economic migrants became illegal (etc ed) the moment they did not claim asylum in the first safe country they arrived in.
It does seem that we are now at a point where it would be best to leave first and negotiate an FTA afterwards. 11. Above will be of particular benefit. Nothing will boost confidence in the UK quite like the realisation that Project Fear 2.0 has also been a load of nonsense.
Leave and make temporary arrangements as best we can. It's unlikely when it comes to it that the EU will impose tariffs where there are none now, especially given their huge trade surplus. Likewise it's unlikely when it comes to it that they will decide gratuitously to play silly buggers with customs checks & delays. If they do, the UK should either make clear we will only retaliate strictly in kind or even turn the other cheek. Trump will of course be able to make huge play of such humbug from the EU whilst criticising his trade war policies. The EU will have to decide whether it wants to support the principle of free trade or become the most aggressive trade war monger on the planet. I think they will choose a sensible managed solution.
We can ban the cruel long distance transport of animals for slaughter in primitive EU-approved abattoirs and refuse to import meat from abused animals.
Twenty-odd years ago you could call in a home slaughterman to kill livestock out on the farm. There was no transport and no stress whatever. The EU banned it.
Well said, Stred. It was debated 'in Parliament' (in a back room, it looked like) following a petition. A lot of sense was talking – let's hope that it all comes to pass once we're free. It'd be good to think the animals we breed would benefit from Brexit as well as the people!
"… was spoken…"
Yes, Stred, making our own laws, doing things our way, is what it's all about.
I've great hopes for bettering animal welfare once we leave the EU (Small is beautiful – not a policy designed to fit the lowest common denominator of 28 countries where animal welfare is often pretty appalling). But we will have to fight for it, because other countries (USA!) will then try and sell us their cruelly-produced products too – imports which we will have to ban to protect our ethically produced food .
My main hope is that all UK political parties will put KINDNESS at the heart of their policies. Ask the fundamental question – is it kind? – and many current practices will have to be phased out :- no more live animal imports/exports , no more bloodsports, no factory-farmed animals, much more tightly controlled animal experimentation – if at all, etcetera.
But we can do none of this if we remain in the EU. Outside of the EU we can lead the world in animal welfare standards – and much else besides.
Here's hoping.
Old Albion
Why can't Mrs May see this?
Dave Andrews
Hey diddle diddle,
EU's on the fiddle,
They think we owe them the moon.
Squire Jacob Mogg laughed (poor sense of fun),
So "go whistle" your prize is the spoon.
Well, I could just repeat what I have replied to Matt in Dublin on the previous thread:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/12/27/8-things-wrong-with-the-withdrawal-agreement/#comment-984153
including the link to the letter I had published in the Irish Examiner over a year ago now, on December 5th 2017:
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/uk-pointless-to-negotiate-trade-deal-with-europe-817096.html
Which the editor headlined:
"UK pointless to negotiate trade deal with Europe"
And which started:
"Speaking to a Sky News reporter last week Minister of State for European Affairs Helen McEntee made the following statement: "We have been very, very clear from day one, there cannot be a physical border and that means ruling out cameras, that means ruling out technology, that means ruling out anything that would imply a border on the island of Ireland, it is not an option for us"."
And went on:
"Having seen that Sky interview I formed the view that it would be quite pointless for the UK to even try to negotiate any "deep and special" trade relationship with the EU when one of its continuing member states is adopting such an absurd, extreme and intransigent position and has been foolishly awarded an effective veto on any agreement.
Far better to say now that the UK intends to trade on WTO terms, which would hurt the UK to a small extent and certain EU countries such as Ireland to a somewhat greater extent, but would at least remove much of the uncertainty which is a troubling business."
Unfortunately Theresa May decided that rather than vigorously and publicly exposing the sheer silliness of that Irish government position over the land border she would collude with them to build up that molehill into an apparently insurmountable mountain, and use it as a pretext to justify the kind of 'deal' that the CBI would prefer.
Brexit fantasy as outlined by Mr Redwood. Meanwhile Brexit reality:
1) You and your children get permanently poorer.
2) Our country is permanently diminished.
3) Jobs will go.
4) Our standing in the world declines.
5) More bureaucracy.
6) Fewer rights.
7) Literally everything gets worse.
8) Nothing gets better.
9) Old Brexit voters die off. Young voters, who do not want Brexit, undo it.
10) Public inquiry.
11) Leading Leavers are held to account and brought to justice.
12) Brexit appears alongside Suez and Guy Fawkes in history books.
My son's Year 8 class recently had a Brexit debate on whether to leave the EU or remain. To the dismay of the teacher, a show of hands at the end was 4 to 1 in favour of leaving! Do not be so sure about point #9. The rest of your points have no basis in reality and come over as your usual temper tantrum. Time for anger management sessions for you, loser.
Andy, You have somehow convinced yourself that the UK cannot be as independent as New Zealand, but without having any reasons. That is irrational.
NIckC.
They are two different nations at different parts of the World and size so there status are bound to be different, no =t that difficult to understand
"there status"?
With grammar that poor you're not really qualified to debate such issues. get a basic education son and then… maybe.
Hans, I did not talk about status, I was talking about independence. And why has New Zealand's location on the globe anything to do with its independence, or ours? If even an island nation as economically small as NZ can be successfully independent – with its similar legal, economic, and cultural systems – then so can we. Not that difficult to understand.
Maybot
You're an angry little man, Andy.
I invite readers to peruse this site to seen how much of the festive period Andy has spent whining here.
I spent all of it playing games with the family and today I'm off out bouldering with my boys. (A form of rock climbing.)
Get a life, Andy.
@Andy; Until I reached your #9 I honestly thought you have seen the light, #1-8 are what eurosceptics have been saying for years about our EEC/EU membership – they can even produce the evidence, well evidence equal any to that produced by the AGW promoters!
As for your #12, indeed, but also alongside Waterloo, Trafalgar, WW1, WW2, the Falklands etc…
13) Brexit is such a disaster that literally everybody drops dead on 30 March 2019. Rage. Hate. Screwing up my Guardian and screaming and screaming until I make myself sick!
Just swop the opening lines to read:-
"Meanwhile Remain reality."
How many more times, Andy? Not all of us who voted to leave your much-revered EU are "old". Some of us are young, with young families and we voted out FOR THEIR SAKE and our country's.
And how many more times, Andy? It's not all about your bank balance and the comfortable life you aspire to (if only that stupid old Baby Boomer in the family would die off and leave you a few thou).
And how many more times, Andy? Try looking on the bright side. You might be surprised how much better you'll feel about yourself.
Good contents there for a fairy tale book Andy. Why don't you publish it?
What a pile of utter… twaddle.
Made-up, plucked out of thin air, no justification for any of it – since it's all plain wrong.
Old Brexit voters may die off – but they are replaced by people who got older in the meantime – and with age comes experience. A key point you serially miss. The older generation for millennia are seen as the 'elders' for a reason: they know things the younger people don't.
The arrogance of youth proves that there'as no substitute for experience.
Remember to put your toys away when you're finished playing Andy, there's a good boy.
Going by the obesity epidemic my generation will be caring for the younger one !
People earn respect. They do not acquire it simply by being old.
There are plenty of older people who deserve my respect – perhaps even some of you on here. And plenty of you who don't.
You miss the key issue about age – context.
Older people voted for Brexit because they were harking back to the post war England of their youth.
It was all Union flags, heroic war films of plucky little Blighty – and it was very white. That is what many of you voted for. You think the EU has taken that away from you.
I came of age in multicultural Britain as a European citizen. For me and the vast majority of my generation Europe is a part of our identity – as much as post war Little England is of yours.
And that is why you will ultimately lose. It is not a political battle. It is a battle of identities – and the vast majority of my generation think like me. And I reckon most of us have at least 30 years on most of you. You can't win. And, ultimately, you won't.
How silly. And I say this on behalf of all young Leave voters. We know the difference between the EU and Europe, even if you don't, Andy. It's fortunately not true that "the vast majority" of any generation thinks like you. It's a damn good job they don't, or we'd be in a parlous state. Most of us have had an education.
Many of us studied history and understand our place in the world, and what made us what we are today. You seem to be so full of hatred and angst and confusion, I am surprised that you even have the courage to get out and go to work. (Perhaps you don't, and you're waiting for that family Baby Boomer to die off.)
@Andy; "People earn respect. They do not acquire it simply by being old"
Correct, not because they are old, but because they tend to be more worldly-wise, thus placing issues & problems into (their historical) perspective – that is not to say some older people can't be dogmatic in their views, but then the young can suffer the same short comings, can't they @Andy?
The above is an assertion, not a fact!
There were many older people who voted to Remain, indeed there would have been a hell of a lot more had ex-pats been allowed to vote, whilst there were many younger people who voted to leave, especially in Corbyn supporting Labour voting areas -prove me wrong.
The above is also an assertion, not a fact…
"I came of age in multicultural Britain as a European citizen"
The first part of your sentence is correct, but then anyone coming of age in the UK since the mid 1950s did so in a multicultural Britain. The last part of your sentence is a faux pas, you can not be a European citizen as there is no country called "Europe", if a child is born in one of the EU28 countries their birth certificate is either issued by that or another EU28 country, not the EC.
"that is why you will ultimately lose. It is not a political battle. It is a battle of identities"
I suspect much of the UK's youth actually identify with the cultures & lifestyles of Australia or the USA, then the Caribbean or Africa, more than they do any of the EU27. If you are correct, the UK stands more chance of becoming the 51st state, not the 28th…!
In my experience ex-pats, of all ages and nationalities, tend to either identify with their country of Birth or their country of residence, those having chosen to live in the EU27 almost never hold to some notion of a (faux) country called "Europe" and thus rarely regard themselves as "European Citizens".
I spent most of my younger years living in different countries, some with very different political systems (including Communism and fascist dictatorship), and with widely varying standards of living. I started learning foreign languages simply because I lived abroad and they were spoken around me: schools I attended abroad were very multinational and multiracial.
I went on to work in several different countries around the world, dealing with and travelling in many more.
I hope it has given me a good understanding of what does and doesn't work, and how trade and friendship can develop or be hindered. I know I am far from alone in being well travelled among my generation – and not just an occasional holiday abroad, which is the more typical experience of your generation.
Please do not be condescending about those whose experience you do not begin to emulate. Try, as we have had to, to get behind news propaganda to get a clearer sight of reality. You may then start to recognise what is of real value.
Projecting your own prejudices and fantasies onto others who voted differently to yourself as usual.
Then confusing Europe with the EU
Michele Harding
Your response is utter nonsense. Do you honestly believe all the globalist fear mongering propaganda put out? The Globalists are relying on ignorant people like yourself believing all their lies and deception to keep the UK tied and subservient to their NWO agenda for taking absolute power of every member state. Move to Europe if you think living under a Globalist socialist dictatorship is more to your liking as you obviously do not believe that your own country that was able to prosper before the EU and is more than able to prosper again when the EU chains are cut.
'Globalist socialist dictatorship' – LOL as the young people say.
Most European countries have right wing governments. Germany, Poland, Austria, UK to name just a few.
The European Parliament has a conservative majority. Jean Claude Juncker is a conservative. So is Donald Tusk.
Of course they are liberal conservatives – so I understand why so many of you mistake them for socialists. The centre is a long way to your left if you stand a long way to the right.
Wow you think Germany has a right wing government.
Your sane and rational postings really hit the spot. No one else gets such vitriol heaped on them as you do.
As for Michele's belief that we prospered before EU membership she is obviously unaware that we begged to be allowed to join what has become the world's biggest, wealthiest trading bloc because we had become known as 'the sick man of Europe'.
Had we prospered we would never have gone on our knees. It was German support that got us admitted in the face of repeated French (de Gaulle) opposition. I bet the Germans have come to regret it now because de Gaulle's warning of Perfidious Albion has yet again proved to be true.
"Sane and rational"? I'd like to bet no-one's ever called Andy that before!
@margaret howard; "It was German support that got us admitted in the face of repeated French (de Gaulle) opposition."
Oh is that so, not the fact that Charles de Gaulle died in late 1970…
…and you wonder why vitriol gets dished out!
1967: De Gaulle says 'non' to Britain – again
The French President, Charles de Gaulle, has for a second time said he will veto Britain's application to join the Common Market.
He warned France's five partners in the European Economic Community (EEC) that if they tried to impose British membership on France it would result in the break-up of the community.
All five – Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy and Germany – have said they would support negotiations towards British membership.
Only France remains opposed.
news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/27/newsid_4187000/4187714.stm
@margaret howard; Your point being what?!
"It was German support that got us admitted in the face of repeated French (de Gaulle) opposition"
That is plainly historically incorrect, you have even helpfully provided a citation to prove yourself wrong, citing as it does events of 1967 -not 1971.
Germany might well have tried to convince Charles de Gaulle to allow the UK to join in 1967, if they did it failed, the UK did not join, our application being vetoed by France.
It was 21st June 1971 before the UK next entered negotiations with the EEC to the aim of joining [1], a good 7 months after de Gaulle had died; (Edward Heath) now dealing with Georges Pompidou, French objections were at an end, thus no intervention from Germany necessary…
[1] formal negotiations that took all of three days, hence much criticism of Heath's haste
It is nearly 2019 margaret.
You are in for an almighty shock
Most generation z are not remotely bothered about staying in the EU, they view the world as a much bigger place, than the odd day trip to France
That must be why they almost entirely want to remain in the EU.
It is bewildering that you believe OUR country would be better governed by an Unelected and Unaccountable Foreign Cabal of micro politicians based in a Foreign Land with absolutely no affiliation to our country nor our culture, rather than by those we regularly elect do so AND who WE can remove every 5 years if they have not performed to OUR satisfaction.
Do you really think so lowly of OUR country that we do not have the capability of going "Independent" just like hugely bigger Rest of the World. out there?
Face the fact that the EU is but a debilitating chain around our necks holding us down so that we can never grow at the rate WE want.
The people voted to leave. Get used to it because its Democracy. Or are you against that too?
Off-topic:
https://euobserver.com/tickers/143799
"John Major's cabinet considered holding EU referendum in 1994"
Brahm
It's not worth commenting now that we are so near the door..we'll have ringside seats
PrezleB
The 'we can' and 'we wills' add up to a lot of speculation. 'We'll know' soon enough, but if there is a change of government then heaven knows
Leaving the EU means we will be able to hold those to account for the things they both do and not do. All the rest is superfluous to being a free and independent natio once more.
Until the FPTP system is replaced with one which is representative, most of us will have no ability to do this either inside or outside the EU.
The FPTP system is only but one blight on our so called democracy. But yes, we may well need to look again at this.
Indeed. If they wont change it vote for the UKIP or independent candidate or none of the above!
The problem with doing that under FPTP, as 2015 showed, is that even if you do that, you still end up with what you always did.
@Timeaction; Vote UKIP (or Inde), get a LibDem Coalition, just as we did in 2010 – and if the SNP are in that mix too expect the UK to start making noises about rejoining the EU…
The FPTP system has the great merit that most of us get to live under a government we voted for at one time or another, and there tends to be some rotation of government so that different ideas get tried and tested, and voters get to understand what works -which subsequent governments tend to be reluctant to tinker with. FPTP is also very ruthless at kicking out formerly big parties that are seen to fail, as the demise of the Liberal Party in the first decades of the 20th century or the similar collapse of the Progressive Conservative party in Canada late in the century.
Under PR systems, no-one gets a government they voted for, and the government can often be unduly influenced by small minority parties. Be careful what you wish for.
Thank you John.
These and many other positive points need to be shouted from the rooftops by Leave Mp's on a regular basis, so that they are not easily drowned out by the media scare stories.
Leave Mp's need to go onto the attack with a co-ordinated positive message.
Let the remainers try to defend the EU as it moves evermore closer towards a political Union which will eliminate Nation States.
Send it to Mrs May and Amber Rudd.
There is absolutely nothing that is negative about leaving the EU. We will even continue to work with, trade with and co-operate with European Countries.
If MP's do not see this and get behind leaving the EU then who knows what the outcome will be. I am sure that there will be consequences, certainly at the ballot box or even civil unrest.
" I am sure that there will be consequences, certainly at the ballot box or even civil unrest."
Oh for sure. In the latter case it wouldn't be a good idea to be a remainer.
There'll be a reckoning on the way.
1. UK economy benefits overall from money paid to EU so by definition we will be worse off when we stop.
2. Lower tax is part of the prize sought by the rich backets of leave.
3.. lower taxes mean less to spend on public services, not balanced by non-payments (see #1)
Rich, Give me £20 and control of your bank balance, and I will give you £10 to spend on things I tell you to. There, feeling richer?
You forgot to add; "And take out a large loan and spend it on your neighbours with no thought for ever wanting it back, because you just want to be liked." 😉
How can the UK benefit from money poured into a bucket somewhere else?
On that basis we should be throwing our whole economy into their pot to make our economy even better. How can you think up such rubbish?
How does the UK economy benefit by giving £13bn a year to the EU – exactly? What utter nonsense.
Lower tax rates generally lead to higher overall tax take.
Look at the Hong Kong model – only the highest earners pay any income tax, yet they have enviable services.
You'd do well to understand the difference between "rich" and "high earner".
Clue: many of "the rich" don't have to work so they often pay no income tax – like travellers, the only tax you see from them is VAT.
Ah, the Laffer Curve myth again.
Lower tax rates don't always lead to higher tax takes, they can also lead to lower ones. Look to the US. Look at what happened in the state of Kansas when the governor implemented Laffer's ideas (and paid Laffer for the privilege using taxpayers' money). Look at what is happening to the US federal deficit as a consequence of Trump's tax cuts.
Even John Redwood is careful to use "can" when he talks about a link between tax rates and tax take as he knows that, just like the warnings you get with investments, cutting a tax rate may cause the tax take to go down.
JOHN FINN
Lower tax rates don't always lead to higher tax takes, they can also lead to lower ones.
Er … that's a property of the curve. The Tax revenue begins at the origin (0,0) i.e. with a tax rate of 0% no tax is collected. Also with a tax rate of 100% the likelihood is no (or near zero) tax is collected.
Therefore there is some point between 0% and 100% at which an optimal amount of tax is collected. The Laffer curve is not a myth it is a self evident truth.
It's a thought experiment drawn up on a napkin in a restaurant. What no one can say for sure is where the peak of the curve actually is (the only figure I've ever seen an attempt at calculating was for the USA and that calculation concluded that the peak was at 70%).
If you don't know where you are in relation to the peak of the curve (and the reality is that no one knows where the peak is), then it is not possible to know whether a change in either direction will deliver more or deliver less.
The changing of tax rates is more about the politics of the change than any effect on revenue.
How many times are you going to post the myth about Kansas and have it debunked?
It would help if you knew what a curve was too.
It hasn't been debunked because the effect on the budget of Kansas showed it to be a complete failure.
No it didn't.
Kansas is the exception that proves the rule.
Unusual circumstances at state not national level.
Economists can work out where the sweet point of the curve is.
We use it to deter smoking by rates which are set very high.
We have seen it in action where increased capital gains taxes led to reduced revenues when the Treasury forecast gains
We have seen it when top rates of income tax were reduced and revenues rose when the Treasury forecast falls in revenues.
There are many other examples.
You need to have a read of some Behavioural Economics books.
Mr Parsons – I see what you did there. Turning "generally" into "always".
I didn't say "always", as Mr Finn above has already corrected your slippery attempt at sleight of hand, I'll say no more.
Your use of the word "generally" has an implication which can not be substantiated by evidence.
You keep quoting Kansas as your only contra argument
So the word generally is right.
16. We can regulate medicines and devices and protect public health for the British people.
17. No more EU funding of our institutions to subvert our democracy.
18. We can directly assess the quality of our elected representatives and remove those who are sub-standard.
SecretPeople
17. is a really important point I had not considered before. In fact, we were paying to EU to cream off some of the donation before 'funding our institutions to subvert our democracy', but I know what you mean.
What is starting to worry me now is whether the grown-up non-corrupt will be allowed near the levers of power once we have left.
"17.No more EU funding of our institutions to subvert democracy"
Our institutions are quite capable of subverting democracy without any help from the EU.The UK is the home and origin of globalism – our creation,promotion and staffing of many of the ever proliferating array of supranational bodies is testimony to that.
If you read "Governing the World-The History of an Idea" by Mark Mazower (Professor of History and International Relations at Columbia University),you will have your eyes opened as to how we came to where we are over the past 100 years and what forces you are up against if you try to unravel their work.
Whilst I agree with the concept of the list (if only it would happen), I find point 2 lacking in ambition. Redesigning the tax system is what is needed, not simply changing levels.
The WTO route enables us the world of opportunity; free from the shackles of the EU, & free to make our own choices about what is best for us.
4. WTO deals will be worse than if within EU.
5. Tariffs applied when exporting.
6. UK fishing industry is a red herring: Harrods employs more & has more than twice turnover
7. We can already.
8. We can already, need a govt that applies the rules.
Rich, No, the WTO system is superior to being tied to the EU – we can make trade deals to suit the UK, and set tariffs to suit us too. Tariffs are only applied when importing. The EU fishing industry is small because the EU took our fishing grounds.
We cannot control migration from the EU inside the EU's single market (you need to read the "four freedoms" to educate yourself). We cannot control our farming policy inside the EU – it is subject to the EU's CAP. How ignorant can you Remains get?
No justification for any of your assertions, as ever. Why will WTO be worse than being in the EU?
Has it ever occurred to you that the supposedly tariff-free trade is actually the UK taxpayer paying the tariffs for business (by paying £13bn / year SM contribution)?
And this only affects BIG business – who never seem to pay much tax in this country anyway, unless we reduce CT rates – which we can do after Brexit, a Eire has dome for years now, ignoring EU demands to do otherwise.
I'm tired of paying their tariffs for them. You also ignore other market factors such as the exchange rate changes that have made this 'priced in' for such businesses anyway.
We are also free to set tariffs as low as we wish for imports (as long as we do the same for all, under WTO MFN rules).
The seafish industry in the UK is valued at £10 billion per annum Harrods revenues
are £2 billion
9. Manu EU laws protect workers and environment; which are the damaging ones?
10. There will always be uncertainty in business, though arguably this is the worst self-inflicted uncertainty in history.
11. Clearly not.
12. We are already a democracy, just need a govt that can govern.
Rich, We can have any laws we wish to protect workers and the environment by using the democracy you extol. There was no uncertainty about Leave. Unfortunately Remains are trying to destroy Leave so that businesses now don't know the political outcome. Uncertainty is caused by Remains.
Clearly we can and must get over this – and the way to do it is accept the democratic Leave result. Otherwise we have no incentive to accept your subsequent democratic wins (if any). We are not a self governing democracy within the EU – see Declaration 17 which confirms the primacy of EU law.
As usual, missing the point.
The 'uncertainty' was clearly about Brexit – not all uncertainty for all time.
The emphasis in 12 was obviously on the 'self-governing' aspect. Although we can argue that the 'democracy' part is also pertinent since electing MEPs has no effect on EU policy in the same way we get to elect MPs based on their party manifesto in a GE.
……. bring the nation together in discussing how to use the money and freedoms we have gained from exit……
Ha ha . Most remain voters are centrists , I am personally a socially Liberal ( ish) free market ( ish) fence sitter, unused to feeling angry. I don`t see this new political rage dissipating and certainly not while the disaster unfolds.
Oh. That's funny, because the vast majority of Remain voters I know accepted the referendum result and we still remain friends.
This 'national division' (stoked by the BBC and such as yourself) is nothing of the sort.
There is a division between of around 30% of the population and Parliament over Brexit. That is the more accurate version of what you're trying to say.
'Centrist'. Do you not realise that everyone thinks that they are centrists ? Don't hog the space all to yourself !
There is nothing undemocratic about criticising Brexit.
I accept that following a campaign in which it lied and cheated Vote Leave won a small majority in the advisory referendum.
That does not mean we have to shut up and let you all get away with screwing up our country.
If you could all actually answer our concerns rather than insult us then you'd get more support.
But Brexiteers can't answer because they had never bothered to even figure out the questions.
They seem to think it is game of playground football and when they start losing they can take the ball away. There is far far more call for a referendum now than there was for the travesty of democracy that was the first one .
Andy/Newmania
The problem for you two is when you are presented with facts and links to evidence that proves you wrong. You disappear and come back later with a different pile of drivel
If there was a third referendum the margin of leave winning would be greater . Thats entirely due to the hysterical behaviour of deranged commentators like Andy, Adonis, O'Brien, Grayling, Soubry and others with their insane forecasts of Armageddon and the end of the world.
You talk of lies yet a day doesnt go past without some demented Remainer doesn't come up with water shortages, no medicine, starvation diets, millions of job losses, the city moving to Paris etc etc etc . All total lies of course
The attack on the result of the referendum comes from remain supporters like you and Andy.
It is your democratic freedom to carry on doing this.
Polls show little support for another referendum nor in Parliament either.
Yes there is. You are refusing to accept the will of the majority.
"I accept that following a campaign in which it lied and cheated Vote Leave won a small majority in the advisory referendum"
Prove it. And whats more here is nothing advisory about the referendum.
Rich coming from someone who would sell it down the river.
"If you could all actually answer our concerns rather than insult us"
Ok two points here; 1) you lost the referendum and are the minority, in this country it's majority rule in any ballot which means we do not have to accommodate your wants. 2) Get your facts right, it was remain cry babies like yourself who started with the insults soon as the the result was announced. One good reason for not listening to your concerns.
IMHO Andy I think you'd be happier living on the European continent, you clearly hate anything British with a passion so perhaps you should consider emigrating to the EU since it is run by an unelected despots who don't recognise democracy. Should be right up your street.
Andy. Have you nothing better to do today? No real work? I thought you ran your own successful business. You spend a lot of time posting comments here. Somehow the person you purport to be doesn't ring true.
Look at the rage in the disempowered EU countries where votes make no difference. Fascists and communists on the rise. Not in the UK (Corbyn & Co excepted) – or Switzerland or Norway – though.
Newmania, You engaged in a democratic Referendum on the Remain side. Neither Remain lies nor their excess money were sufficient to convince the country. You lost. Stop having childish rages merely because you did lose.
You see yourself as a centerist and Liberal
Compared to Pol Pot I presume
Unnecessary and totally useless remark and no respect for the millions in Cambodia
Very useful comment by me in my opinion.
For a political extremist to call themselves centrist and liberal shows a complete lack of self awareness.
I have great respect for the delightful people of Cambodia
Those who survived the extremist regime of Pol Pot.
Rage because remainers lost, or rage because people like you won't respect the result?
You need to get used to it and work with the majority, not against it!
17.4 million people call you wrong. Live with it.
John Redwood proving once again he's light-years ahead of Theresa May and her weak as dishwater Cabinet lackeys.
No wonder he isn't in a government role.
Nicholas Murphy
All true – but we have a government that seems resistant to realising the full benefits of Brexit. My own feeling is that too few of our MPs come into politics with a strong record of achievement in the real world, so are frightened of change – especially when THEY are in charge of it. And too many of them, having gone to universities dominated by the Left, are indoctrinated into thinking well of every international body that limits our ability to be sovereign. There would appear to be implications for the way in which the Conservative Party chooses its candidates.
Let's see if this makes it through moderation – you'd hope so for an elected member of Parliament!
1. If we default on our already agreed commitments, good luck being trusted in any other deal !
2. Reduce the income of the government – another 10 years of austerity!
3. Most of out overseas staff come from the EU!!!
4. We HAVE trade agreements already as part of the EU. They contain clauses that mean we CANNOT get a better deal!
5. We have zero tariffs on most good we don't already produce ourselves. Reducing them on ones we do kills our own industry.
6. Fishing is a tiny proportion of our economy. A quota system helps the ecology of the sea as well! Most fish is exported to the EU!
7. Most farm labour comes from the EU! Our growing season is much shorter that Southern Europe – where are we going to get out fruit and veg from in February?
8. We can control our borders while in the EU, the government chose not to.
9. If we can't make our own laws, what have you being doing as an MP for 20 years? Also, we have the veto of any changes to EU law, which ones in the last 40 years don't you like?
10. Staying in would make far less! (You've got to negotiate dozens of FTAs!)
11. Dropping out will cause years of arguments. See above!
12. See number 9!!
From an MP this is an appalling simplification, easily refuted claims, you should be ashamed of yourself.
1 Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, including trade deal.
2 Swiss VAT is 8%. Do the sums.
3 And EU citizens will be apply to work here, alongside the rest of the world. You prefer discrimination?
4 Trade deals – Switzerland has more and better ones than the EU. 9 million people.
5 We have high tariffs on goods we could use to make value added goods here, to protect German and Italian industry. EU rules exist to prevent us competing. Speak to James Dyson.
6 Fishing tiny for an island nation. Have you ever asked yourself why?
7 We'll live even if we're embargo'd. I hear fruit and veg is grown in Africa, Asia and N America, not to mention Aus/NZ. Lots of choice.
8 Only by making it more complicated and delaying it for those who had a right anyway, but the latest surge from poor Southern Europe was the last straw. The whole thing is discriminatory.
9 Not too keen on VAT threshold being lowered. That's one from today.
10 We voted to Leave, not Remain.
11 Staying under foreign control would cause riots.
12 If EU laws mean so little, why is leaving their clutch so difficult?
You need to change your mindset to an optimistic and democratic one, not just accept the anti-democratic and pessimistic outlook of a powerless supplicant.
Our exports outside the EU to countries with whom the EU has trade agreements totalled £33bn in 2017, of which about half was to Switzerland – with whom we have agreed a deal to take effect as soon as we exit the EU which will leave us in substantially the same position as now, with the prospect of a deal on services that the EU refused to do to follow. Other deals are near fruition already.
1 Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, including trade deal. Correct – so either trade deals are vital to our national interest and therefore a no trade deal with our nearest and largest trading partner is a disaster or trade deals don't matter and leaving the EU to do trade deals is a red herring. Which is it?
2 Swiss VAT is 8%. Do the sums. Yup. Lets slash taxes in a country with some of the lowest taxes in the world so the rich can become even richer.
3 And EU citizens will be apply to work here, alongside the rest of the world. You prefer discrimination? No. All FTAs have some form of preferential movement of people attached. Look at CETA. What do you think India covets from us? So you want to do trade deals with other countries that in turn discriminate?
4 Trade deals – Switzerland has more and better ones than the EU. 9 million people. Errrr. No they don't. BS
5 We have high tariffs on goods we could use to make value added goods here, to protect German and Italian industry. EU rules exist to prevent us competing. Speak to James Dyson. Tried James but he's busy shifting production to Asia and closing down his factories in the UK.
6 Fishing tiny for an island nation. Have you ever asked yourself why? Yes and I found out – its because UK Government sold off the fishing rights. Nothing to do with EU decisions.
7 We'll live even if we're embargo'd. I hear fruit and veg is grown in Africa, Asia and N America, not to mention Aus/NZ. Lots of choice. We'll live?! How very inspiring of you.
8 Only by making it more complicated and delaying it for those who had a right anyway, but the latest surge from poor Southern Europe was the last straw. The whole thing is discriminatory. Err. No its not. Again
10 We voted to Leave, not Remain. No you voted leave 70% of the UK population didn't vote leave.
11 Staying under foreign control would cause riots. No it wont. Unless you have a motorized zimmer frame
12 If EU laws mean so little, why is leaving their clutch so difficult? Its not difficult. It just causes huge financial pain (its almost like there's real benefits of staying in).
Disingenuous or ill-informed.
EU workers may currently come from the EU in some sectors… so we get them elsewhere post-Brexit. Duh.
Preferably we get the indigenous population off their benefit-fuelled bottoms and into work via a less generous benefits-for-life system. Who knows, they might even encourage their own kids to pay attention at school if they realise that in the future world, they can't pratt around at school then leave at 16 and get a warehouse/driving job. The world is changing to a technology-driven workplace and they should wake up to the new reality.
And your other nonsense like "we can already control our borders" – we have only emergency powers of border control. You're either very ill-informed or very slippery.
As always, on the rare occasions we see the Remain position try to put forward a substantive argument, it's total nonsense. But at least you tried rather than taking snide pot shots from the side lines as the rest of your cronies do.
But our government didn't control our borders and then blamed the EU and so here we are.
Hi BR,
Check out Article 7 – Rights to Resedence http://www.eearegulations.co.uk/CitizensRightsDirective/ByPage/Article_07
Our government chose not to implement, it doesn't have to be emergency.
As for education and benefits, I don't see how either have anything to do with EU membership – the current government has been trying its best to run both education and the social system down for the last ten years.
If Jon won't answer be great to hear which Eu laws you would like to change?
I've listed then so many times I'm not going to list them all again but here are some of the most damaging
VATMOSS
(EU) 666/2013
Harmonised standards for vacuum cleaners 2017/C 267/02
VAT rates on energy, female sanitary products etc
Basically the are 100's of costly pointless regulations in food labelling etc
Hi Libertarian,
I think we'll have to agree to disagree on the pros and cons of those Articles – personally I quite like the idea that my interests are being looked out for by the EU.
Out of interest, if we do diverge from these regs, where do you believe we are going to sell our produce?
A personal website on EEA regs? With the disclaimer: "Since I am not a lawyer and this is a personal website, please double check any of the information that you find on the website before relying on it".
And there's no context on that site.
Certainly not my understanding – many, many other sources say otherwise (just Google any related phrase).
Just a more convenient way of linking. Here is a link to the actual EU text https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2004/38/oj
No emergency needed.
EU laws applied in the UK? – I would like to be able to change all of them.
Ann Davis
Agreed – but I'll be surprised if your comments make it through the night.
My thoughts exactly.
Agreed, but there are 200 or so conservative MPs who prefer the easy life of being spoon fed legislation by the EU. Block it out Boycott style until end March 2019 arrives. We are then out end of story.
John Redwood
Is everything in place for a move to WTO terms on March 30th? e.g.
1. What about the re-allocation of quotas which has caused some concern among current WTO trading partners.
2. What is the true state of play at Dover and Calais. Clearly neither port wants to lose business but do they have the capability to deal with what may only be a small delay per vehicle. There are suggestions that an extra 2 minutes per vehicle would cause a 17 mile trafffic jam. I haven't looked at the actual calculations but suspect this figure is not an exaggeration.
Uplifting John to read your blogs with so much Remainer led can't do mentality about.
An almighty battle lies ahead of which I'm sure you're well aware. You and your ilk are going to need to counter the tide of scares and threats that are going to spill out of from all sources. It could be that as per late stages of the referendum campaign the scare stories become more stale and turn people off.
I find it interesting that Remainers are threatening to prevent the government raising taxes if they don't get their second referendum. This really seems to hark of desperation, which cheered me up. I think the biggest danger to leaving is the current deal awful as it may be, it could come down to attracting a lot more Labour Remainer support if their favoured options are snuffed out. Important I think that if/when it's represented it gets absolutely "mullered" in the commons.
Can I ask what you expect the benefit from the 'almighty battle' you think the country is prepared for?
I'm not sure that was what was suggested when we were told 'easiest deal in history' or 'we hold all the cards'. Somewhere the narrative seems to have changed, so interested in what you're looking forward to? (Apart from the deaths during the battle!)
Alan Joyce
Dear Mr. Redwood,
We are told, ad nauseum, that we must remain in the EU because without membership our country will become a veritable backwater with Morocco, strangely enough, being the most recent comparison levelled by EU Commissioner Günther Oettinger.
I find it odd that we hear regularly from proponents of the EU that we leave the club at our peril but they never seem to extol the virtues of staying in.
In the interests of fairness (the media, particularly the BBC, almost never runs balanced coverage) perhaps those opposed to a WTO Brexit could give their 12 reasons, here on your blog, as to why the UK should stay in the EU.
It would be helpful if contributors could restrict their contributions to positive reasons for staying in the EU as opposed to the scare stories that are usually substituted.
Why are Brits so fearful? Because their politicians have been so inept. The UK has useful historic links with almost every country in the world, yet is in deep doubt. The EU isn't even a resounding success; far from it.
16. We don't depend in decision making on 27 other countries.
George Brooks
Having just read both yesterday's and today's blog with which I totally agree there is still one major hurdle to overcome before we can exit the EU.
The reason as to why the PM 'pulled the vote' on the WA debate was obvious but she has been vague on the date when it will be held ie sometime after Jan 14. We have had the BBC propaganda machine in full operation aided by other members of the media over the Christmas period to keep Project Fear in the public eye.
However the most likely reason for this delay and vagueness on the return of the debate is to give the EU time to concoct a last minute huge bribe which will be announced around the 14th Jan with little or no time to examine the legal implications. It will be all smoke and mirrors and hailed by the PM and her team as a break through in the negotiations with the sole purpose of persuading all those Remainer MPs to vote the WA through.
It is one enormous con-trick that will destroy this country and lock us into the EU until it collapses. We need some top lawyers standing by to explain the full implications the minute an offer is published in order to minimise any traction that it might gain.
"We need some top lawyers standing by to explain the full implications the minute an offer is published in order to minimise any traction that it might gain."
Can Lawyers be trusted ?
I think this is going to have to run it's course, then, if the government fails to get us out by no deal/WTO, then it will be time to rise up.
Mike Bradley
In order to succeed the Conservatives and PM need to distance themselves from the EU's dead-duck Withdrawal Agreement.
Else all becomes fois gras to the #MaisNon negotiat ion approach of The (unelected) Commissioners.
This is the EU's Withdrawal Agreement not the UK's as outlined in the Lancaster House speech.
Veer a wide course away…urgently.
bigneil
8. Control migration? With reports of 200 arriving by boats in the last month alone it seems we have absolutely NO control . We may as well have a chap with a megaphone on the White Cliffs of Dover shouting "Row up Row up. Come and get your freebie lives – everything on the taxpayer"
It has become a circus. So much for the dangers of crossing the Channel, which we have been repeatedly told are covered by radar. Can it only spot massive tankers or cruise ships?
12. Democracy? That has the same Ring of Truth that No.8 has. I don't think PMTM has any in her.
Indeed. The Border Farce, RNLI and RN is becoming a free water taxi service.
The first tragedy involving a child will seen pictures on the BBC, but you won't see pictures of children blown up in terrorist incidents. (We shouldn't be seeing either btw.)
Sharon downing
I would love nothing better than our country out of the greedy claws of the eu. We managed before it we'll succeed after it. Do these remainers really think we are being treated fairly by the eu fat cats. They just want to dominate the world. Those politicians who want to remain just want to keep lining their own pockets. 17.4 million people voted leave which to my reckoning means a no deal brexit.
"3.We can hire more nurses, doctors, teachers, and police, and improve our social care."
We've had decades to do that….how has that gone? Oh, yeah that's right, neither Blues nor Reds did much to improve hiring by employing stacks and stacks more people. Social care is creaking and of course when the question of who pays for social care was raised, Blue Tools shouted that they would never agree to more of their own cash being spent on social care.
Indeed, and I'm not sure we need more, just better. Quality control rather than just numbers. Organisation, not the current mess. How much was spent by the police just trying to find out whether a drone over LGW existed or not? Totally nuts when the technology is there to spot it and take it out in minutes.
Now Ms Dick has the nerve to tell us we'll all be in more danger if she can't look on EU databases. Well you should have thought of that, Ms Dick, when you signed the agreements! Even if you didn't, you've had since 2015 to create a back-up plan and then enact it! Incompetent doesn't cover half of it!
GregH
I have my doubts about all of this, looks more like we saw on the side of the bus..promises promises..but in the end it turned out to be a lot of hot air.
On the other side of the argument we are about to leave the biggest economic trading bloc on the planet, a trading bloc of 500 million people with huge spending potential. I cannot see how we can be possibly better off by leaving to WTO rules than we are right now as full members of the EU..just cannot see it
There were no "promises" on a bus.
1. Leave are a cross-party campaign, not a political party. They cannot make promises. Which is why…
2. The Leave campaign said it "could" be used to fund the NHS. You do understand concept of an example? Essential reading comprehension skill.
Leaving the EU as a trading bloc is actually stopping a system whereby the UK taxpayer pays £13bn /year instead of big businesses paying tariffs. That's what we would be leaving – and in doing so we become free to trade with the rest of the world. And also with the EU…
Also – WTO (if it happens) will be the Day One scenario. Then the negotiations begin in earnest, with us playing our aces from a position of strength instead of playing a bunch of twos as May and Robbins have been doing for 2 years.
BR- great..and I am right behind you..with only a couple of months to go until we meet our new trading partners..African and South American countries with plenty of Rand and Pesos to spend..great..and when the sparks begin to fly..we'll put you up into the front line along with JR IDS DD and J R-M so that you can all have a good look
Oh look you forgot the BIGGEST market in the world, NAFTA , China, India , Australia, New Zealand or indeed the 160 countries not in the EU , or the 2.1 billion people in the commonwealth
You know the people we already do 60% of our export trade with…..
I'm struggling to extract any sense from that diatribe.
I notice that it didn't refute anything I said.
I'd be more convinced if I knew about what new trade deals Dr Fox has lined up for us?
Brexit is dead with a Europhile in charge. Anyone arguing otherwise is a liar
Another Project Fear myth dispelled:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-europe-spain/spain-pm-sends-message-of-calm-to-british-living-in-spain-idUSKCN1OR0WE
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez sent a message of calm on Friday to British people living in Spain and Spaniards living in Britain, assuring them that their rights would remain the same after Britain's exit from the European Union.
The government was working on measures to ensure Britons living in Spain would maintain their rights even if Britain crashed out of the EU without a deal, he said. The measures were conditioned on Spaniards getting the same rights in Britain, he added.
Spain is the most popular European retirement destination for Britons, and is home to around 300,000, mostly settled on the coast. Britain is by far the biggest user of Spain's state-funded, universal health care system amongst foreign nationals.
The glittering prizes on offer are less likely to be seized given the wilful neglect exhibited by this government in failing to identify and be ready to exploit the myriad opportunities.
Blimey John, I thought this was why I voted to leave 2016?
Anyway, Lot's of comments keep flooding in. Adonis was on LBC this am coming out with his usual blurb…I wonder whether both leave/remain have come to a conclusion that people will again vote to leave on 2nd ref when they listen to this unelected man who despises the UK?
Interesting hypothesis, which unfortunately does not really stand the real test.
1) WTO terms does not really cover much of the agreements set up in the Eu -context over the past 45 years, including separate agreements on trade and non-tariffs agreements, which covers at least another 17% of our trade , beyond our trade46% of our trade with the EU.
2) the £ 39 billion savings is just few months consumption of the NHS, so the big savings we are talking about are not really there, if, they are to cover NHS, police and tax cuts.
3) Tax cuts in and VAT cut might mean more activity in the economy, but if it potentially has a negative effect like a much bigger fiscal deficit as in the US, it will just be countere-productive.
4) The so-called new trade agreements, of which a number are already covered by existing EU agreement will take years to complete.
So all in all probably a potentially a very positive forecast, which will most likely turn out differently than what Mr. Redwood forecasts.
The real savings are £13bn/year to the SM.
Trade deals can be negotiated in advance – pressing the 'Go' button only takes a second. That's what Fox is setting in place now.
We are locked into lots of trade with the EU because CU membership makes it difficult to trade elsewhere. Stating where we are now, as members, does not mean we need to be locked into that arrangement forever – i.e. it's not an argument for membership, it's a consequence of membership.
Did anybody say anything or state anything else?
Yes, you did – by omitting what I said, you attempted to create a false impression.
You just keep believing in your quick fixed trade deals
Ian Pennell
Firstly, I trust that you have had a very good Christmas with your family.
I agree. Lots of benefits from a WTO "No Deal" outcome, we could do so much to get our economy growing whatever the EU decide to throw at Britain in a hissy fit! However, it's fast looking likely that we might not get any meaningful Brexit whatsoever. See
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1064400/Brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-peoples-vote-remainer-MPs
What are you and the ERG going to do to STOP the Remainer MPs colluding to stop a proper Brexit from happening? Have you written to any of the Remainer Conservative MPs to warn them of dire consequences (i.e. de-selection and an Election) if they push ahead with their treacherous plans?
I know you don't like the idea of threatening to bring down the Government to topple Theresa May and put a Brexiteer in charge of the Conservative Party to bring the Remainers into line, but the Remainers are not going to respond to roses and chocolate: Don't let them sabotage Brexit!
It seems that since Theresa May won the vote in her leadership of the Conservative Party the Brexit- supporting Conservative MPs have gone to ground and the only threats to the Government's position seems to be from the Remainers: Please, with your ERG colleagues, could you ACT NOW because it could soon be too late to rescue Brexit!
W Theobald
How often do you holiday on Fantasy Island John?
John O'Leary
Only when the Unicorns are mating.
This is all getting a bit silly JR including the comments. The WTO has no competence to do a quarter of the things you are claiming for it. The Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) will have no impact on whether the UK or the EU increase checks on each other's goods or where they do it.
The WTO's Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) agreements won't stop a member state from applying new regulations. WTO is only concerned that the Discrimination Principle (Most Favoured Nation) is not broken, and all members get treated the same.
Then one day you get some deadly bug imported on a plant; beef with Mad Cow Disease; Beefburgers that turn up full of horsemeat; then, that friction-free border principle goes out the nearest WTO window.
And could you explain how this is different to what would happen if we were members of the EU?
In 2001 Ireland completely sealed its borders following the foot and mouth outbreak. Apparently a completely open order isn't always necessary.
John Finn wrote: In 2001 Ireland completely sealed its borders following the foot and mouth outbreak. Apparently a completely open [b]order isn't always necessary.
The island of Ireland has the same Sanitary-Phytosanitary ("SPS") regime, John. An example of where the DUP want differences between GB & NI.
Rev Ian Paisley: "Our people may be British, but our cows are Irish."
The island of Gruinard had a totally separate phytosanitary regime for decades. No-one suggested it wasn't still part of Scotland.
I remember they called it Anthrax Island after the biological weapons test there. Didn't the Russians buy it recently, after they doused it in two hundred tonnes of formaldehyde?
Ian Jones
John, you are delusional.
You are still spouting pie in the sky, uncosted sound bites.
Yes – do go on – Provide us with the costings.
Sorry John Finn, I meant John Redwood 😉
You can still provide us with the costings.
Most of these points should come into fruition if a cooperative climate is inherent . The trouble is that since we haven't ever left the EU before it is all speculation just as the other side of the coin is, which is leave and create economic chaos.
It saddens me that the UK remainers don't have faith in their own fellow men to perform and create wealth and harmony for their own. When did we become so pathetic?
I see we are going full tilt now in 'rescuing' those who choose to set sail across the channel. They don't seem to be in distress. They should be collected at sea and taken back to France but your government has started the taxi service here it operated in the Med. Mrs May has signed the Migration Pact so she wants them here. They know it and more will come.
Paul Tomlin
1 Far from crashing out, we will be cashing in. We will get our money back to spend on our priorities. We will be better off.
Have we not agreed to pay this, ongoing commitments, surely if we don't pay our credit rating will be shot, or am I wrong
Reply Yes, you are wrong. We have no legal liability after we leave
The reason all the proposed payment calculations are listed in the WA is precisely because they are NOT obligations. We have to sign up to them to make them so.
Where exactly are all those new nurses and doctors going to come from?
Not from Latvia, the EU has asset stripped their doctors, nurses and carers to the applause of Remainers
Perhaps some Remainder would like to explain why the EU doesn't want to allow us to leave. Why does it wish to keep its tentacles wrapped around us and not make it easy for us to go?
Does it fear for the UK's well being out in the big wide world?
Does it wish to save the UK from itself by making it hard to escape?
Does it believe the UK will be safer and more secure kept in the EU fold?
Does it wish to protect and take care of our people because it cares for our welfare?
Does it believe the UK will be happier if it remains clutched to the EU bosom?
Does it have the good of the UK at heart, so that it can't bear for us to be separated?
Or is it because it wants to keep getting our money?
Brexit is dead – the Tories are screwed. Repeating the same delusional gibberish isn't going to help you. Bye.
A timely 9-page dossier "Brexit and the UK economy" in the 28/12-03/01 issue of the Investors Chronicle, with 16 charts and 8 tables, allowing one to figure out where the UK economy has come from, where it is now, and how well equipped it is to go through Brexit. Something worth reading to somewhat complement JR's statements often rich in words but rather scarce on actual figures, specially in a longer-term context.
The figures for the future in these dossiers are just predictions.
We have had booms and busts whilst in the EU.
Ed2, you cannot have read that particular dossier: none of the charts or of the tables has numbers or curves after 2017/2018.
They make projected conclusions based on cutrent and historic data.
It is all guesswork
As far as I can see I had been very prudent in not quoting any of the conclusions of that study. Furthermore the "projected conclusions" are neither particularly negative nor positive, they are practically inexistent.
So who is guessing about the guesswork?
Every prediction of the future is guesswork.
You referred to them as "actual figures"
Again the actual figures I referred to were the ones that JR rarely provides, specially based on long time-series like those provided between 1960 or 1990 and 2017/2018 in the IC study.
But it seems you have difficulties to read properly even 5 lines, so what was expecting? you understanding 9 pages of text?
I appreciate you are referring to data for current and past times.
But any predictions for the future based on this data are simply predictions.
Useful maybe but nothing more than guesses.
I have no problem in reading and certainly no problems in looking at sets of data.
Watch out Sir John, she's after your vote!
Many congratulations Sir Knight.
Mr Peabottom-Ready
Sir, Dr, ….Not as notable of what's usually said after my name is so much as whispered.
We are so pleased about the knighthood in the Queen's New Year Honours list. A very well deserved honour for a most honourable and patriotic gentleman who has served his Queen and country well and bravely.
As I pointed out before Xmas a whole bunch of EU laws (e.g common transit convention or registry of fishing vessels) is all being done prior to a no deal brexit. When you look at what is being done the whole no deal brexit is being done in an orderly manner by the civil service.
In fact if May's deal goes through it will create chaos because lots of work has been done with minimal time left so there is in fact no time to undo the work that has been done. For example it takes 3 months to register a UK fishing vessel so UK fishing boats will be illegal in the EU at the start of March.
From the Telegraph …
The Government is failing to be "frank" with the public about the extent of no-deal preparations because it wants to shore up support for Theresa May's "disastrous" Brexit deal, a civil servant says.
Congratulations on your knighthood, richly deserved.
Congratulations for a thoroughly deserved Knighthood, Sir John !
This is a la la land list of lies.
The fact that Putin supports Brexit, tells you all you need to know.
Nick O.
Dear Sir John,
Have just heard the news about your award in the New Year's Honours List. May I offer you heartiest congratulations. Your family must feel rightly proud. Well done, sir.
George Dunnett
Congratulations on your Knighthood. Thoroughly deserved I might add.
Mikey M
Yes, his services to beggaring the poor to even greater misery and lying his cadaverous head off about Brexit deserve recognition.
Ah, a typical remainder! Never a comment without an insult. Envy is very unattractive, Mikey.
Congratulations on your knighthood.
Sue Doughty
I do like your blog but you really will have to rename it to Sir John Redwood's Diary! Well deserved.
Reply NO rebranding. I am the same John Redwood today as yesterday
Reply to reply: very nice to be told so. Congratulations for a well deserved honour, if only for the consistency you have been showing since 1992.
Dear Sir John
Delighted to add my own congratulations to what must be a very long list! A much-deserved recognition of your long public service.
Very best wishes for the New Year.
Huw Jones
This is from the man who has set up the most stupid arrangements for local government in Wales. Vote him out he is a liability, like the rest of the cabinet
labour has been in charge for decades
Last one May 1997-May 2010, just 13 years or one decade and three years.
Nearly every local council is Labour or Plaid
Nearly every national parliament seat is Labour or Plaid.
And has been for many years.
Yet you hark back decades to one decision by our host.
You will be blaming Lady Thatcher next.
Jane Georghiou
Most people will be worse off. Some will lose their jobs. You list is based on half truths that you have twisted.
pure guesswork
Mrs May caused her problems by not having a national debate on what Brexit is or is not before triggering Article 50. So we end up with a deal which pleases few. The last General Election was about care for the elderly! Debate not engaged in.
We are re-branding the Common Agricultural Policy – what a wasted opportunity when we should have dumped this piece of state interference. Down with the Corn Laws.
As for "global" Britain still no extra runways at Heathrow – opposed by elderly ( that is mosty Brexit supporting) types. This sums up why Brexit is troublesome – it is full of contradictions.
Simon Blanchard
There is a 13th good reason. The UK will be forced out of EU military Union, that the UK government and civil service are so keen for us to join. As part of the Withdrawal Agreement is signing up to all the EU defence and security institutions with the idea of after leaving in name only also signing into PESCO, which stands for Permanent Structured Cooperation on Security and defence, which would end UK national defence & foreign policy and force UK defence procurement to follow EU procurement rules. Read the joint letter from MI6 boss Sir Richard Dearlove and Maj-Gen Julian Thompson
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/prime-minister-misleading-country-on-security/
None of these 12 'big wins' stand up to any analysis. They are fictitious.