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:Â You have not reported any symptoms consistent with social anxiety disorder.
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Anxiety Disorder Quiz – It really is reported that 40 million persons in the United States are affected by 1 or far more types of anxiety disorders, producing it the country's most popular group of mental illnesses.


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The Art of Manufacturing
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The Art of Manufacturing « »
Taboo! Julia Rose of VaGenie and Melanie Cristol of Lorals
By Krisztina 'Z' Holly. Discovered by Player FM and our community — copyright is owned by the publisher, not Player FM, and audio streamed directly from their servers.
Two brave women build businesses that might make you blush. What is it like to launch a product that you can't talk about in "polite company"? Meet Julia Rose, founder of VaGenie, and Melanie Cristol, founder of Lorals. They've developed products for women's health and pleasure, one a high tech "wearable" game and the other a special kind of apparel. We talk about what it's like to raise money, find manufacturing partners, and market a "taboo" product. Further, Melanie has Tourette Syndrome; we explore how it's had a positive impact on her path to founding and running her business. Julia and Melanie didn't know each other before today's conversation, so it's fun to share notes on their common experiences. Neither one of them have an engineering or product background. We learn how an actor and a lawyer became manufacturers: the inspiration, the steps they followed, and the surprises they met along the way. It's not always easy, but they are making it happen.
Learn more: vagenie.co, @myvagenie mylorals.com, @mylorals, @melcristol
For more information, photos, and links, check out the show notes at makeitinla.org/taboo.
Melanie Cristol, founder & CEO of Lorals, is a former consumer-products and healthcare attorney and a Columbia Law School graduate. She is a passionate advocate for sexual health, having worked with Lambda Legal, the Columbia Sexual Violence Response Team, and the National LGBT Task Force. Melanie's expertise in this sector has earned her international attention and accolades, and she has been featured in various media outlets speaking about tech, manufacturing, and sexual health.
With a strong international perspective, a background in marketing and entertainment, and passion for women's health issues, Julia Rose and her team at Kalikha Inc. are creating the VaGenie, a smart biofeedback pelvic floor muscle trainer and menstrual cycle tracking solution destined to break taboos around a vital health concern that effects 2 in 3 women worldwide: weakened pelvic floors. A combination device and app, the VaGenie helps women strengthen their pelvic floors by allowing them to play video games controlled by pelvic muscle exercises (Kegels). In addition, armed with a mission to normalize conversations around women's health, Julia uses tools such as her "VaGenie Martini Party" events as well as VaGenie's "Free the V" community to bring awareness to a variety of critical women's issues. Julia is the mother of 2 young boys and lives in Los Angeles, CA. She received her degree in Diplomatic History from the University of Pennsylvania.
James Webb Space Telescope: Krystal Puga and Scott Willoughby45:39
$9 billion and a million miles away: we get a special behind-the-scenes tour of NASA's most ambitious and risky project ever. The James Webb Space Telescope will let us to look billions of years back in time and look at exoplanets in other galaxies. It's pushing the boundaries of what is technologically possible. When you think of manufacturing ...…
Hydroswarm: Preeti Battacharyya46:06
An underwater roboticist is determined to map the 70% of our globe covered in water. Everyone's talking about space these days, but the most promising uncharted frontier might be under the sea. And exploring our oceans is much harder than you think. Preeti Battacharyya is a 30-year-old entrepreneur who fought tradition back in India and moved t ...…
Knock Knock: Jen Bilik46:24
Comedy isn't always easy: this entrepreneur has learned some tough lessons manufacturing irreverent gifts that don't meet everyone's tastes. This week we're speaking with Jen Bilik, the founder and CEO of Knock Knock. With a name like that, you might guess there is some humor involved—and you'd be right. Knock Knock is known for their funny and ...…
Lumi: Jesse Genet [encore]1:21:48
Packaging should be your secret weapon, and this serial entrepreneur will show you how. Some of you might remember our episode a year ago, with Jesse Genet from Lumi. They recently raised $9M, so we're checking in with Jesse to get an update. We talk about how they've evolved their strategy and what she learned raising venture capital. We also ...…
Desktop Metal: Ric Fulop, Jonah Myerberg & Andy Roberts43:21
Meet the 3D printing company that might totally change how we manufacture, design, and even develop products. When you hear the words 3D printing, what do you imagine? Do you think about those cheesy, plastic parts? Desktop Metal has raised $270M to change all that. Unlike other metal 3D printers, which are ridiculously expensive, incredibly da ...…
SmartyPants Vitamins: Courtney Nichols Gould [encore]1:12:36
Amazon is eating the world! A wellness entrepreneur shares her secrets to launching a consumer product in today's complex retail environment. This week we're going to the vault to play one of our favorite past episodes. We're speaking with Courtney Nichols Gould, the co-founder and CEO of SmartyPants Vitamins. She had a really successful career ...…
Tulip Interfaces: Rony Kubat & Erik Mirandette43:25
Digitizing the factory isn't always easy. A former counter-intelligence officer and former reality TV star talk about how they hope to bring modern data tools, IoT, and Lean Manufacturing to every factory floor. Manufacturing technologies have been changing fast. And it's amazing what you can make custom and on-demand, and how you can iterate i ...…
David Charlot: Charlot Biosciences49:35
A bioengineering startup tries to commercialize a new tool that might totally change the way we identify and treat disease. We have tools to look inside the body without killing the patient, so why should we have to kill cells to understand disease? It's hard to believe that only a hundred years ago, scientists mostly studied disease by dissect ...…
Wiivv: Shamil Hargovan and Chris Bellamy58:34
A startup builds custom, on-demand 3D printed shoes and gives a glimpse of what innovation might look like in the future. Recently, I took a little road trip to meet some manufacturers. And this week we're visiting Wiivv, a startup shoe factory just north of San Diego that's bringing modern digital manufacturing to the consumer. Imagine taking ...…
Micki Krimmel: Superfit Hero1:00:48
Roller derby inspires a body-positive athletic fashion brand that's just hitting a tipping point. Though finding a factory that will take her business has gotten easier, the real challenges have just begun! Micki Krimmel is the founder of an emerging apparel brand called Superfit Hero. She has some serious startup chops, but if you had told her ...…
Should I make it in the USA? [live]56:35
Four experts explore the dilemma of where to do your manufacturing. It's is an important question to ask yourself when you are launching a company, and most people assume they need to go to China or elsewhere overseas. We've heard a lot about Made in America and retaining manufacturing jobs over the years. But is locally-made just a nice thing ...…
Meredith Perry: uBeam56:58
Pioneering wireless power: a rare interview from the charismatic and controversial founder of an L.A.-based startup that everyone thought would fail. Meredith Perry founded uBeam back in 2011. Mark Cuban invested in the company and called it the next zillion-dollar idea. In 2015 Fortune called her "brilliant" and asked if she might be the next ...…
Taboo! Julia Rose of VaGenie and Melanie Cristol of Lorals1:07:15
Two brave women build businesses that might make you blush. What is it like to launch a product that you can't talk about in "polite company"? Meet Julia Rose, founder of VaGenie, and Melanie Cristol, founder of Lorals. They've developed products for women's health and pleasure, one a high tech "wearable" game and the other a special kind of ap ...…
Tim O'Reilly: WTF! [live]49:07
What's the Future? The "Oracle of Silicon Valley" shares his contrarian thoughts about technology, capitalism, and preparing for the big shifts on the horizon. This week we're talking with futurist and author of the book "WTF: What's the Future?" Tim O'Reilly. Although he's not a manufacturer himself, his insightful perspectives are useful for ...…
Lidia Yan: NEXT Trucking55:40
There's a shortage of 50,000 truck drivers impacting manufacturing in America, and demand keeps growing. Last week, we spoke about some pretty futuristic transportation ideas. This week we're talking with a serial entrepreneur who is trying to beat the odds and make transportation and logistics work better today. Lidia Yan is the founder and CE ...…
Dr. Anita Sengupta: Virgin Hyperloop One [live]48:50
(recorded live) Speeding through tubes at nearly the speed of sound; a former NASA systems engineer is helping make the future of transportation a reality. When Elon Musk first proposed the Hyperloop in 2012, most people fell into two camps: enthusiastic or skeptical. Imagine if you could accelerate pods to twice the speed of an airplane, using ...…
Brent Bushnell and Eric Gradman: Two Bit Circus59:24
Two clowns reimagine entertainment through micro-amusement parks. They use technology, a bit of showmanship, and a unique process of innovation to develop their immersive social games. What does the circus have to do with manufacturing? Well, the founders of Two Bit Circus are planning to build micro-amusements around the world. To do so, they' ...…
Julio Ruiz: LiquidSky Sports59:31
A skydiver with an unusual past shares how his business delivers custom apparel for action athletes and Hollywood by adopting new digital design and manufacturing technologies. Julio Ruiz had a career in Puerto Rico shoeing horses and inseminating cows before he decided to become a manufacturer. It was Julio's passion in skydiving and mad skill ...…
Natasha Case & Freya Estreller: Coolhaus1:04:17
Cult favorite ice cream brand Coolhaus started in a broken down postal truck at the Coachella music festival. While growing their ice cream brand over nearly a decade, Natasha Case and Freya Estreller, have many stories to tell, through marriage, two funding rounds, brick and mortar scoop shops, and fast growth wholesaling around the country. T ...…
Felix Ejeckam: Akash Systems1:01:15
Space! Diamonds! Startups! Cubesats could soon be streaming live video of anywhere on earth and beaming broadband data to the last three billion people around the globe. Thanks to the rapidly dropping price of launching these tiny satellites, that somewhat creepy—yet also very exciting—future might very soon be here. And this week's guest, Feli ...…
Ashley Crowder: VNTANA46:57
Holograms and hardware: just one piece of VNTANA's strategy to become the go-to platform for brands to engage with customers using AR and mixed reality. Augmented reality is a big buzzword these days. But most companies are focusing on creating content. Because of her deep technical background, Ashley and her company started with a portable hol ...…
Cat Chen: Skylar Body52:38
Customer trust and deep supplier relationships are the foundation for The Honest Company's former head of operations as she launches a new venture-backed company pioneering all natural fragrances sold online. Scents online? I was curious to learn how she pitched VCs on that idea! We delve into her journey leading her first startup. We also get ...…
Titan Gilroy: TITANS of CNC & 7 Myths, Busted36:55
1+ y ago 36:55
An ex-prisoner turned elite CNC machinist and TV personality, Titan Gilroy, talks about how to save American manufacturing and the joy of seeing something you created go to space. But first, Z rants a bit, and busts seven myths about manufacturing. Titan's journey is a story of redemption. He started on a really rough path, growing up homeless ...…
Kevin Czinger: Divergent 3D + Jeff Krause: SME1:10:22
3D printing automotive micro-factories (not electric vehicles) might be the key to sustainability and innovation. We learn why, from the CEO of Divergent 3D. Plus, the head of SME gives some hints on what to expect at WESTEC next week! Sometimes we get trapped by a legacy way of doing things. We've built 2 billion vehicles in the last century, ...…
Courtney Nichols Gould: SmartyPants Vitamins1:11:48
Launching a consumer product in a complex retail environment: For our season finale, we're speaking with Courtney Nichols Gould, the co-founder and CEO of SmartyPants Vitamins. She and her partner Gordon Gould both had their own really successful careers in tech, before launching a consumer packaged goods company. Before this venture, she was t ...…
Rodney Brooks: Rethink Robotics1:07:13
If you own a Roomba, you can thank Rod, because he's the co-founder of iRobot. He launched the company almost three decades ago when he was a professor at MIT. Well, today, he's at it again. He's trying to disrupt the world of industrial robotics with his new startup, Rethink Robotics. While I was in Boston a few weeks ago, I visited him at his ...…
Sonja Rasula: The Unique Empire58:47
Connecting with customers to build a great business, with the creator of the weekend pop-up market. In 2008, Sonja Rasula, risked her entire 401k savings to start UNIQUE LA, a popup marketplace that features over 300 independent artists and designers. Over the years she has worked with thousands of artisans and entrepreneurs, and she built an a ...…
Jeni Britton Bauer: Jeni's Splendid Ice Creams1:00:38
Gourmet ice cream that takes the whole state of Ohio to manufacture! This week we're talking with Jeni Britton Bauer, the founder and CEO of Jeni's Splendid Ice Creams. She's been a pioneer in gourmet ice cream since she started over two decades ago, and continues to innovate. I was curious about how she develops her inventive flavors and what ...…
Ben Horowitz: Andreessen Horowitz (live)56:53
Imagine your startup is down to its last bit of cash, your investors won't follow on, you're sure you're going bankrupt, and everyone tells you to give up. What do you do? You decide to take your company public--it's dubbed by BusinessWeek as "The IPO from Hell." That's just one of many cold-sweat moments Ben Horowitz has experienced first-hand ...…
Rodney Mullen: godfather of street skating1:16:33
In this episode, "the godfather of street skating" Rodney Mullen reveals his insights on the history and future of skateboarding. He invented most of the foundational tricks used today—including the flat-ground Ollie which allows skaters to pop their boards off the ground—and he co-founded the largest skateboard company in the world in the 1990 ...…
Litty Mathew: Greenbar Distillery55:05
Becoming the largest organic spirits company in the world takes a careful balance between having a point of view and appealing to a broader market. And no one is as attuned to that dilemma as much as the founders of Greenbar Distillery. As craft distillers and immigrants, founders Litty Mathew and Melkon Khosrovian have learned to embrace the t ...…
Bethany Shorb: Cyberoptix and Well Done Goods1:07:59
A Detroit manufacturer tries retailing. But sometimes the hardest part about growing your business isn't collapsing ceilings or managing inventory. It's learning to let go. Bethany Shorb is the founder of Cyberoptix. Her fashionable and subversive ties have been a cult favorite for fans like retired Apollo astronauts and celebrities like Chris ...…
Ivka Adam: Iconery + Carolyn Casavan57:17
An on-demand jewelry company, plus a sustainability segment for Earth Day! Ivka Adam is the Founder and CEO of Iconery. She's mashing up 3D printing, ecommerce, manufacturing, and influencer marketing to create a unique platform to enable designers and influencers to create and sell their own jewelry lines. In a way, her company is a tool for n ...…
Nick Pinkston: Plethora59:49
Job killer or savior? Automation and technology have definitely been changing the way we communicate, how we shop, how we date, how we get around. And it's changing manufacturing, too. Should we be afraid? Silicon Valley has gotten a reputation of being a "disruptor" – and depending on who you are or what part of the country you live in, that t ...…
Chris Wilson: House of DaVinci1:14:40
Chris Wilson murdered a man at age 17. He was tried as an adult and sentenced to life in prison. But what happened next is nothing short of remarkable. While imprisoned, he wrote his grand plan and then got to work. He earned his high school diploma and associates degree, graduated from all of the vocational shops, and started a book club and a ...…
Jesse Genet: Lumi1:10:14
Packaging should be your secret weapon, and Jesse Genet can show you how. At age 15, Jesse started her first business printing t-shirts in Detroit. Over the next year she followed her curiosity, tracked down an obscure invention, and next thing she knew her new company Inkodye ended up on Shark Tank and participated in the prestigious incubator ...…
Mark Fuller: WET Design1:08:59
Iconic Fountains of Bellagio captured our collective attention when they opened in 1998, and they manage to impress decades later. The creator Mark Fuller and his company WET Design continue to push the envelope and redefine the high-tech fountain industry today. We get a behind-the-scenes look at the company's launch from Disney Imagineering i ...…
Kellie Johnson: ACE Clearwater1:00:13
Through true grit and teamwork, this welder's granddaughter overcame intimidation and stereotypes to turn ACE Clearwater from a third-generation business into a high-tech aerospace powerhouse. It's one thing to work for the family business, but President and CEO Kellie Johnson really took it up two notches. She's been a huge advocate for the ma ...…
Ellen Bennett: The Apron Lady + White House Maker Conversations1:08:14
Maker conversations from the White House and LA! Celebrity makers and chefs like Martha Stewart and Mario Batali are crazy about Hedley & Bennett aprons. We learn how Ellen Bennett is building a company that brings in millions in revenues and cultivates a passionate following for something that's so mundane on this Season Finale episode. They a ...…
Dov Charney Reveals What's Next1:02:42
American Apparel's controverial founder built a multi-hundred million dollar company that created thousands of local jobs and helped define popular culture in Los Angeles and the world. And then he lost it all. Dov Charney is also notorious for how he was ousted as CEO from his own company. Enough has been written about that, but rumor had it h ...…
Greg Steltenpohl: Califia Farms and Odwalla59:09
Two beverage empires came from humble beginnings. Greg Steltenpohl realized that playing saxophone in an avante garde punk jazz band wasn't going to pay the bills, so in 1980 he and his buddies decided to start a juice business. They would hand-squeeze oranges out of the back of his VW van and deliver the product& to nearby restaurants in Half ...…
Donna and Lauren Johanson: Chivas Skin Care51:18
Sure, you love your mom. But could you go into business with her? The mother-daughter team of Donna and Lauren Johanson have turned their family goat farm into a cosmetics business based on products made with all-natural ingredients and goat milk. I wondered what it's like to turn a fun hobby into a high-end business that distributes through mo ...…
John Lehman: McMarden + Stephanie Alves: ABL Denim1:08:07
What happens when you are a respected fashion brand with the good fortune to be featured in top retailers like Barney's--but then the market changes? New platforms for making and selling custom apparel mean every blogger and celebrity fancies themselves a designer, and traditional boutiques are becoming irrelevant. So high-end fashion designer ...…
Connie Huffa: Fabdesigns56:40
Additive Manufacturing isn't just 3D printing. Knitting isn't just for apparel. And being a venture-backed high-profile unicorn isn't the only way to make global impact. This episode features Connie Huffa of Fabdesigns, a company you've probably never heard of, but you've seen their products. It's is run by a couple with 70 years combined exper ...…
Shanley Knox: Olivia-Knox54:41
What do African cows, civil unrest, and the Guinness Book of World Records have to do with manufacturing? Shanley Knox is building a new factory in Uganda—and pioneering a whole new industry—around a very unique local material. Shanley and her partner, Olivia Byanyima, founded Olivia-Knox to sell products manufactured from Ankole cow horn. This ...…
Eric Demby: Smorgasburg1:04:19
We caught Eric Demby just before launching his next big venture: Smorgasburg LA. It features highly curated artisanal makers, local food sellers, and other vendors in a marketplace patterned off of his prior successes in Brooklyn and New York City, starting with Brooklyn Flea in 2008. Eric gives advice for artisans looking to launch their own p ...…
Catherine McCord: One Potato1:01:33
French fries don't count as vegetables, but try explaining that to a screaming toddler. Catherine McCord--celebrity chef and entrepreneur--knows the struggle all too well. That's why she founded One Potato, a service that delivers fully-prepped meal kits of fresh, organic food right to the front doors of busy families. We learn what it was like ...…
Jodie Fox: Shoes of Prey57:23
What if I told you there's a company that has delivered millions of distinct products around the world? And it's only seven years old? Welcome to world of mass customization! That company is Shoes of Prey, and Chief Creative Officer and co-founder Jodie Fox tells us what it means to deliver exactly what the customer wants, where they want it. T ...…
Elan Lee: Exploding Kittens56:14
Community-building secrets behind the largest kickstarter in History, Exploding Kittens. Not long ago, Elan Lee was best known as a legendary video game designer and the pioneer of "alternative reality games." But thanks to his new card game, he's learning what it takes to be a manufacturer. He talks about growing his company from a founding te ...…
Karl Kani: Godfather of Urban Streetwear1:20:16
At age 16, he made himself his first suit. At 21, he headed to L.A. to launch a career. 27 years later, Karl Kani is still a legend for his pioneering urban streetwear brand. But after an ill-fated partnership almost lost him the rights to his own name, he's back to work, rebuilding his $100M hip-hop fashion empire one bold step at a time. We h ...…
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News and views on business and the world of personal finance. Plus the very latest from the financial markets around the globe
TED Talks Business
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"Extra Credit," S&P Global Ratings' U.S. public finance podcast, delivers a mobile overview of trends, rating actions, and credit commentary on the week's most pressing municipal market issues.
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Woman arrested in Vancouver's 11th homicide after knife attack
Stephanie Ip More from Stephanie Ip
Updated: July 2, 2018 11:18 AM PDT
Tech waves touted to reshape Metro Vancouver: Deloitte analyst
Mobile traditional Finnish sauna comes to Vancouver
Vancouver has recorded its 11th homicide after a second stabbing victim died over the weekend. John Kenney / Postmedia
Vancouver has recorded its 11th homicide after a second stabbing victim died over the weekend.
On Friday around 12:15 a.m., Vancouver police were called to an apartment on Abbott Street near West Pender for the report of a stabbing. Officers arrived to find a man suffering from a stab wound inside a suite.
The man was taken to hospital for treatment but died on Sunday morning. He has since been identified as 26-year-old Vancouver resident Shane John Tolmie.
Vancouver records 10th homicide of the year after stabbing victim dies
A 24-year-old woman was arrested at the scene. She has since been released pending further investigation.
It is the city's 11th homicide of the year.
Anyone with information is asked to contact Vancouver homicide police at 604-717-2500 or Crime Stoppers at 1-800-222-8477.
Earlier in the day, the city said another victim from a separate stabbing a week earlier had also died in hospital, marking the city's 10th homicide.
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Is there more to this story? We'd like to hear from you about this or any other stories you think we should know about. Email vantips@postmedia.com


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Q: Xcode unable to detect supabase-swift framework I am trying to integrate supabase-swift framework in my app, I followed all their steps but unfortunately Xcode doesn't detect it.
How I installed?
SPM - Search by URL(https://github.com/supabase/supabase-swift.git) and then added the package successfully
Debugging:

*

*Clean Build folder

*Restart Xcode

A: Try to clear the cache under: ~/Library/Caches/org.swift.swiftpm/ and reinstall

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


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McKinsey & Company Home Strategy & Corporate Finance
Beating the odds in market entry
November 1, 2005 | Article
By John T. Horn, Dan P. Lovallo, and S. Patrick Viguerie
Article (PDF -336KB)
How to avoid the cognitive biases that undermine market entry decisions.
Article (PDF-336KB)
The annals of business history report that for every successful market entry, about four fail. Inexperienced start-ups suffer some of these disappointments, but so do many sophisticated corporations and seasoned entrepreneurs who should know better. After all, industrial economists and strategists generally agree about what makes market entrants successful: factors such as timing, scale relative to the competition, and the ability to leverage complementary assets. Moreover, the magnitude and importance of entry decisions—encompassing everything from geographic expansion to new products to diversification efforts—should prompt detailed analysis.
But cognitive biases—systematic errors in the way executives process information—often wreak havoc on market entry decisions.1 1. Behavioral economists have written extensively about the impact of cognitive biases on financial markets and on a wide range of decisions. See Charles Roxburgh, "Hidden flaws in strategy," McKinsey Quarterly, 2003 Number 2, pp. 26–39 for an overview of the relationship between cognitive biases and strategic mistakes, as well as a partial summary of the broader literature on this topic. For one thing, when confronted with a difficult decision, most executives rely solely on an inside view: they focus excessively on the specific case at hand. This tendency prevents many of them from developing an outside perspective based on previous market entries and even from evaluating opportunities in the light of common predictors of success. Furthermore, when an analysis is conducted, cognitive biases often lead executives to believe that a company's skills are more relevant than they really are, that the potential market is bigger than it actually is, or that rivals won't respond to the entry move.
The costs of miscalculation can be large. The efforts of Anheuser-Busch to diversify into the snack food business, for example, went awry when the beer giant underestimated Frito-Lay's response to a threat to its Doritos franchise. Similarly, EMI failed to capitalize successfully on an exciting medical innovation—the CAT scanner—because the company overestimated its ability to compete in this new market and underestimated the strengths of experienced competitors such as General Electric and Siemens.
Fortunately, some practical steps can help executives control cognitive biases in market entry decisions. Objective predictors of success, for example, can be used to create a reference class: a group of similar decisions that other companies have made in the past.2 2. For a description of how reference classes can inform decisions extending beyond market entry, see Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman, "Delusions of success: How optimism undermines executives' decisions," Harvard Business Review, July 2003, Volume 81, Number 7, pp. 57–63. The reference class yields comparative data that are an invaluable reality check on the inside-view analysis. (Government bodies in the United Kingdom have used reference class forecasting to predict the cost of infrastructure projects, and the American Planning Association, a society of professionals focused on public-works projects, has endorsed the use of reference classes.) Additional tools, which can improve the quality of the inside view itself, include competitive-gaming exercises, the study of industry life cycles, and a policy of involving managers from diverse parts of the organization in important decisions. In our experience, the combination of a robust outside view and an improved inside one—better assessments of value propositions, capabilities, market size, competitors, market share and revenue, and costs—dramatically raises the odds of making good entry decisions.
Step outside
Companies have no reason to repeat the mistakes of others. Yet they frequently fail to learn from history, because a myopic focus on the market entry decision at hand prevents them from creating a reference class of at least five (and preferably more) similar entry decisions in the past. Such a reference class promotes systematic learning from the successes and failures of other companies. It also counteracts the tendency of many decision makers to fall into the "confirmation trap": seeking information that confirms their hypotheses. A broad reference class, in other words, forces analysts to consider more possibilities and new data.
The failure rate of projects is high in industries such as pharmaceuticals, oil and gas, and motion pictures. Companies in these sectors do understand how important it is to play the probabilities and can draw on a rich body of cases in creating a reference class. But companies that place product bets less frequently, and with less apparent risk, have fewer internal reference cases to compare and generally either don't consider looking at the experience of outside companies and industries or, if they do, often conclude that the effort isn't worth the expense. Since the tens (if not hundreds) of millions of dollars at stake in a typical big-company market entry far outweigh the costs of forming a reference class, that conclusion is penny wise and pound foolish.
Companies developing an outside view can benefit from a wide body of statistical research showing that six factors are particularly important predictors of successful market entry (Exhibit 1). Even before companies select their reference cases, an explicit review of these factors sometimes shows that the dice are loaded against going forward.
In constructing a reference class, the first step is to review which of these factors are most relevant. Say a small, technologically adroit company that lacks complementary assets enters a new industry at the same time as large, diversified companies that do have them enter it. In this case, the small company should create a reference class of similar entrants in other industries, not this one. Next, companies should look for reference cases involving as many of the most important factors as possible (Exhibit 2). It's important to uncover both successful and, even more, failed entries so that the reference class approximates the distribution of actual outcomes. The greater the overlap with the experience of the industry in question, the more valuable each example will be for the reference class. But it is also useful—and sometimes, if the industry is a new or emerging one, necessary—to reach out across different industries.
The use of a reference class guards against a weak and dangerous alternative: hypotheses based on an analysis of just one or two cases, whose selection is subject to the "availability bias": choosing whatever comes to mind most readily. During the buildup to the current conflict in Iraq, for example, the two analogies consistently reported in the press were the Vietnam War and the 1991 Gulf War. These were natural choices, since they were the two most recent large-scale conflicts involving the United States, but they weren't necessarily the most similar ones. Expanding the reference class to include the troubles in Northern Ireland, Britain's involvement in the Middle East after World War I, and US policy in Europe after World War II might have raised fresh, relevant questions about troop requirements, the policing of occupied populations, and postwar reconstruction.
Improve the inside view
Besides developing a reference class, companies should remove any bias from their analysis of the entry decision. Start by targeting five core issues: the value proposition and capabilities, the market's size, the competition, market share and revenue, and costs (Exhibit 3). Of course, other analyses (of regulatory issues, for example) are occasionally necessary and sometimes of paramount importance.
What value proposition and skills are necessary?
The closer a company stays to its core capabilities and value proposition, the greater its chances of mounting a successful entry.3 3. Companies should measure the distance in "degrees." Selling the same product through the same distribution channel to the same customer groups, but in a new geography, represents one degree of difference. Selling to different customer groups as well adds a second degree. But companies can be egocentric: they may assume, for example, that since their employees are excited about a product customers will feel the same way, that the resources and assets they already have are the ones needed to meet the needs of the target market, that what they do well is sufficient for success in it, or that they can easily acquire any missing skills. All of these biases undermine the analysis.
A memorable example of a company that underestimated the difficulty of developing new skills dates back to the 1970s, when the music producer EMI entered the CAT scanner business on the back of an innovation developed primarily by Godfrey N. Hounsfield, a researcher in the company's labs. EMI had no experience in the manufacture of medical-diagnostic-imaging equipment or in medical sales and distribution. Its senior management decided to build these capabilities rather than partner with other companies to obtain them. More than five years passed before EMI delivered the first product. Soon thereafter, General Electric, with its world-class manufacturing and sales and distribution networks (and 75 years of experience with X-ray equipment), entered the US market. So did Siemens, which had already entered the European one. Not surprisingly, GE and Siemens became dominant and EMI exited after sustaining substantial losses. (Hounsfield, however, won a Nobel Prize in 1979.)
To avoid such mistakes, companies should use the reference class to identify the key determinants of successful entries into similar markets. Which product attributes and business models have succeeded in the past? Were the winners superior marketers? Did they have outstanding distribution systems? If new capabilities seem to be needed for success, companies should exercise caution and consider contractual approaches, such as joint ventures and licensing, that can help them secure the missing assets. It's frequently valuable to have people who are not directly involved in making the decision help determine what's needed for a successful entry. After all, the analysis of managers from different divisions will be less biased by ingrained knowledge of the organization's current value proposition and skills.
How big is the market?
Estimating a market's potential size typically involves categorizing customers into a number of segments and then using pricing and elasticity assumptions to estimate the percentage of buyers in each category the company might capture. Two biases typically distort such estimates. One is the fact that human beings, when considering potentially positive outcomes, are almost always optimistic. The second is "anchoring and adjustment": the failure to adjust estimates sufficiently from an initial value, regardless of its origin. An optimistic anchor that often infects market estimates is an industry's current growth rate, which rarely endures for long. Another anchor is the initial "gut" forecast number an analyst plugs into a spreadsheet with the intention of making adjustments as more information arrives.
How influential are such anchors? In one recent study, experienced real-estate brokers, who had contended that the listing price4 4. The price a person selling a house asks for it publicly. of a house wouldn't affect their evaluation of its "true" value, were asked to assess a property. Each broker received a ten-page booklet on the house and on the prices and characteristics of houses in the area. Each then visited it, plus others in the neighborhood. The agents didn't know that the listing prices they had been given for the house in question were all different and had been randomly manipulated within a range of plus or minus 11 percent of the actual listing price. Those spurious listing prices significantly affected the evaluations of the agents. Yet even when they were told about the results, they maintained that the listing-price anchor had had no effect on them.
To avoid anchoring estimates on a target market's current growth rate, companies should always try to determine the life cycle stage of the business they wish to enter. At some point, most industries experience shakeouts, which can be particularly severe in fast-growing sectors. Although it is difficult to predict the exact timing, efforts to think through the possibility of a shakeout—and how many companies are likely to survive it—often highlight the unsustainability of current growth rates.
A second useful way of improving estimates of market size is to use the reference class of other entrants as a benchmark. Consider the fate of the Segway, a new type of two-wheeled vehicle unveiled in December 2001. Although we don't know for sure what the inventor, Dean Kamen, did to estimate the size of the market, we do know how many Segways he thought could be sold after a year: 10,000 a week. A typical approach for arriving at such a figure would have involved combining an analysis of the number of consumers who could both afford the Segway and realistically use it for commuting or recreation, on the one hand, with penetration rates in this demographic for similar products, such as scooters and bicycles, on the other.
But the Segway's usefulness depended on changes to infrastructure. How many cities would allow people to drive the vehicle on sidewalks? If roads were the only alternative, how many potential purchasers would still be willing to use it? Since the answer to both questions was "not many," just 6,000 Segways were sold in the first 21 months. A broader reference class that included conventional automobiles, fuel cell cars, hydrogen cars, and infrastructure-dependent technologies such as high-definition television and telephones might have shown that securing the right to ride the Segway in cities was of paramount importance. After all, it took years to create the roads, power grids, standards, and networks necessary for cars, electric lighting, HDTV, and telephone service to become ubiquitous.
Who are the potential competitors?
Other market entries fail because companies underestimate the competition. Many decision makers, for example, don't grasp the likelihood that their rivals may enter the same market they have targeted; they suffer from competitive blind spots when thinking about what could go wrong. That's what happened to British Satellite Broadcasting (BSB) after it outbid Rupert Murdoch's Sky Television, in 1988, to win the contract to broadcast on a new British satellite. Even as BSB prepared to launch its service, Murdoch obtained the rights to broadcast from a Spanish satellite that could reach Great Britain. Sky went on the air in early 1989, beating BSB to the market by 13 months. Despite Murdoch's 1988 bid, Richard Brooke, BSB's treasurer, said that "Murdoch's announcement came from left field and took everybody by surprise."
While it is difficult to generate a reference class for potential entrants, in our experience it can be very helpful to brainstorm about them and then to test these hypotheses in a disciplined way. The first companies to consider are those in the same industry; after all, if one of them is contemplating plunging into a market, its competitors probably are too. If companies in other industries could succeed in the target market, they should be considered as well. Hindsight will always reveal the "necessary" capabilities, but expanding the list of possible competitors increases the odds of spotting unexpected threats. Although discretion is sometimes the better part of valor, this analysis is meant to help companies react to the competition's moves before they happen, not to scare entrants away from a fight.
The benefits of recognizing and countering potential entrants can be large. Consider the case of Softsoap, the first liquid-soap manufacturer. The shift from hard to liquid soap was an incremental innovation that couldn't be protected by a patent; there are too many ways to make the product. The businessman who had the idea for Softsoap, Robert Taylor, knew that if it entered the industry without protection, consumer-marketing giants like Dial would crush it. His solution: signing contracts to obtain all of the existing capacity for the pumps capable of dispensing Softsoap. The result was an 18-month lead on the competition. Today, Softsoap is synonymous with the product category in the same way Coke is with cola drinks.
What market share and revenue can be achieved?
In addition to overlooking potential competitors, companies often fail to factor in the likely responses of current ones. We call this the "brick wall effect": assuming that competitors won't adjust their prices, broaden their product offerings, or otherwise change strategy in response to the entry. (The focus on current competitors rather than potential new ones distinguishes the brick wall effect from the competitive blind spots described previously.)
Consider the experience of Anheuser-Busch after it diversified into snack foods, in 1979. Its Eagle Brand operation initially succeeded by staying small and focusing on supplying airlines and taverns. Once Anheuser-Busch expanded beyond these markets, however, it was encroaching on Frito-Lay's turf, stimulating a harsh counterattack: deep across-the-board price cuts by Frito-Lay and a concerted effort to drive Eagle out of supermarkets. These aggressive moves ultimately forced Anheuser-Busch to sell Eagle to P&G.
The best way to anticipate competitive responses is to conduct gaming exercises, with executives role-playing competitors to gain insight into their likely behavior. One telecommunications company that leaned toward using a premium-feature, low-cost strategy to enter a new market assumed that the incumbents would maintain the status quo of premium features and high prices. But after using game theory, simulations, and competitive analysis to assess the incumbents' likely responses, the prospective entrant realized that it had overestimated its returns by a hefty 800 percent. It modified its entry strategy and performance expectations accordingly.5 5. Hugh Courtney, 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World, Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2001, pp. 167–71.
Using the reference class to set reasonable bounds on market share estimates also helps. If the reference class attained only a 3 to 5 percent market share, decision makers should pause when they see higher estimates.
Good cost estimates can make the difference between creating value and destroying it, but many companies can't arrive at them, because of the "planning fallacy": the tendency to underestimate the duration and cost of any endeavor. Most of us recognize this problem in our own lives, and research shows that we should. One study assessed the accuracy of the estimates that psychology students made of the time they would need to complete their honors theses. Even though the question was asked toward the end of the year, 70 percent of the students took longer than they had predicted—on average, 7 days longer than their worst-case forecast (48 days) and 22 days longer than their "realistic" one (33 days). Studies of holiday shopping, tax filings, and other routine chores yield similar results.
Large corporations are also susceptible to the planning fallacy. Even in fairly routine endeavors (such as launching new consumer products), expenditures often exceed forecasts dramatically. In more novel initiatives, the effects of the planning fallacy are often severe. A Rand Corporation study of 44 chemical-processing plants owned by Fortune 500 companies, for example, found that the actual construction costs of these facilities, on average, were more than double the initial estimates. One year after start-up, about half of the plants produced less than 75 percent of their design capacity; a quarter produced less than 50 percent.
If sufficiently broad, a reference class is a potent tool to counteract the planning fallacy. For a new type of polymer-processing plant, say, the reference class should include not only plants built by the company contemplating it but also cutting-edge processing plants in the chemical industry and perhaps new types of processing plants in other industries. A broad reference class gives would-be entrants a realistic range of costs associated with attaining various market share levels. Cost estimates far below the realized costs of the reference class should make decision makers think again.
Paraphrasing Thomas Hobbes, the renowned late economist Paul Geroski, of the London Business School, once said, "The life of a typical entrant is nasty, brutish, and short." He was right. Fortunately, companies can boost their odds of success by tackling cognitive biases head on.
John Horn is a consultant in McKinsey's Washington, DC, office; Dan Lovallo is a professor at the Australian Graduate School of Management (of the University of New South Wales and the University of Sydney) as well as an adviser to the firm; Patrick Viguerie is a director in the Atlanta office.
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Donald Trump, fascist storyteller
Voter-suppression shuffle: Officials close only polling site in majority-Latino Kansas town
Dodge City, Kansas, made famous by the westerns, is now the site of especially blatant voter suppression tactics
Check out this article! https://www.salon.com/2018/10/24/officials-close-only-polling-site-in-majority-latino-kansas-town/
Igor Derysh
October 24, 2018 10:00AM (UTC)
Dodge City, Kansas, which has a 60 percent Hispanic population, had its only polling site moved outside the city limits to a suburban location with no access to public transportation, the Wichita Eagle reports.
Once famous as a boozy, violent frontier town of the Old West, Dodge City today is a community of 27,000 people roughly 160 miles west of Wichita. In recent years it has relied on a single polling site for its 13,000 voters, compared to an average of 1,200 voters at other sites. The polling site was located in a wealthy, predominantly white neighborhood near a local country club.
This year, local officials have shuttered Dodge City's lone polling place, citing road construction in the area, and moved it to a facility outside the city limits that is more than a mile from the nearest bus stop.
"It is shocking that we only have one polling place, but that is only kind of scratching the surface of the problem," Ford County Democratic Party chair Johnny Dunlap told the Wichita newspaper. "On top of that, not only is it irrational and ridiculous that we have only one polling place, but Dodge City is one of the few minority-majority cities in the state."
State voter data shows that Hispanic voters in Ford County had just a 17 percent turnout in the 2014 elections, compared to a 61 percent rate among white voters. The national Hispanic turnout rate in 2014 was 27 percent.
The city had multiple voting locations until 2002, when the Americans With Disabilities Act created new strict requirements for accessibility at polling sites. That law shuttered a large number of polling sites that don't appear to have been replaced. In nearby Barton County, Kansas, some voters will have to travel 18 miles to their nearest ballot box after the county cut the number of polling places from 23 to 11.
Kansas is far from the only state closing down numerous polling sites. Since the Supreme Court struck down parts of the Voting Rights Act in 2013, more than 1,000 polling sites have been closed in nine Republican-run states alone.
After the Shelby County v. Holder decision eliminated a section of the Voting Rights Act that required states with a history of racial discrimination to get federal approval before making any changes to their voting processes, the Leadership Conference Education Fund found that 868 polling sites were shuttered in Alabama, Arizona, Louisiana, Texas, North Carolina and South Carolina. Another study by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution found that Georgia eliminated another 214 polling sites, or 8 percent of all the polling locations in the state.
That's only counting the ones officials were able to close without a fight. Earlier this year, Georgia's Randolph County proposed closing down seven of its nine polling sites in an overwhelmingly African-American area. The plan was scrapped after resulting protests but the Pew Institute found that "10 counties with large black populations in Georgia closed polling spots after a white elections consultant recommended they do so to save money."
According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 53 of Georgia's 159 counties have fewer polling sites now than in 2012 under the leadership of Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who is also the Republican nominee in this year's gubernatorial election. Thirty-nine of those 53 counties have poverty rates higher than the rest of the state and 30 of them have large African-American populations.
"There's no doubt that there is a pattern statewide," John Powers of the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law told the newpaper. "Many of the counties in which consolidations are being considered have substantial numbers of minority voters. These precinct consolidations have a disparate impact on Georgia's most vulnerable citizens."
Igor Derysh is a New York-based political writer whose work has appeared in the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Boston Herald and Baltimore Sun.
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'Star Trek: Deep Space Nine' condensed: How to watch the most story-driven Trek
Some fans consider it the best Star Trek series ever.
By Ryan Whitwam on April 29, 2020
Deep Space Nine, home of Quark's. Credit: Paramount Tv/Kobal/Shutterstock
This guide will help you get through the 1990's sci-fi TV show Star Trek: Deep Space Nine. It lists both the most crucial episodes for plot progression, and the most beloved one-offs. It is spoiler-free, but you can infer some things if you read too far ahead. It is recommended you go season-by-season.
Star Trek: Deep Space Nine was a departure for the franchise in more ways than one. It's the only series that isn't based around the exploits of a starship, instead taking place mostly on a former Cardassian space station. There wasn't even a captain of the station in the first few seasons. This series also delves more deeply into the inner workings of the Federation and its citizenry, and what it finds is not always as flattering as it was made out to be in The Next Generation.
DS9 was also the first Star Trek series that had a strong storyline that carried on from episode to episode. Ronald D. Moore, who is now known for the Battlestar Galactica reboot, began writing for DS9 in its third season. Not coincidentally, that's when the story arcs become more detailed and engaging. You can't just jump in anyplace and know what's going on, but there's a lot of DS9. Where to start?
Sorry, there are how many episodes?
With 176 episodes at about 43 minutes each, that's more than 126 hours of content. You could watch Deep Space Nine for over five days straight with no breaks for sleep. You don't have to, though. Who has time for that? Here are the episodes you should watch if you don't want to miss the good stuff.
You can get Deep Space Nine on either Netflix or Amazon Prime in the U.S. Note, the episode numbers on Netflix are sometimes different from the production codes, which are used here. Make sure you check the title before queuing up an episode.
Season 1 – Coming to Bajor
As is common with Star Trek, it took a bit for the series to find its footing. The relationships between the crew members is still developing in season 1 and the larger storylines have yet to emerge. Still, this is where you should start to learn about the setting and characters. Basically, Commander (later Captain) Sisko is given command of Deep Space Nine after the Cardassian empire finally ends it occupation of Bajor. He discovers a stable wormhole to the distant Gamma Quadrant, which puts Bajor on the proverbial map. It also makes him a religious icon for the Bajoran people. Here are the episodes you need to hit.
Essential Watching:
Episode 1 and 2 – Emissary: The premiere episode lays the groundwork for the entire series as Sisko becomes the first person to enter the wormhole, which the Bajorans believe is the home of their gods. A short-term stint on Deep Space Nine is suddenly looking like a permanent post.
Episode 3 – Past Prologue: A Bajoran terrorist wanted by the Cardassians arrives on the station. It's a good overview of the tensions that exist between the Federation and Bajoran crew on DS9. It also introduces the tailor/spy Garak, one of the best characters in all of Trek lore. That's just my opinion, but you can't prove me wrong.
Episode 12 – Vortex: We get the first hints that DS9's security chief Odo is not the only Changeling in the galaxy. Indeed, his people may still exist in the Gamma Quadrant.
Episode 13 – Battle Lines: The Bajoran Kai (basically a space pope) visits the station and takes a trip through the wormhole. Things do not go well.
Episode 19 – Duet: A Cardassian visitor is suspected of being a war criminal in disguise. Kira is determined to find out the truth.
Episode 20 – In the Hands of Prophets: In the season finale, a Bajoran religious leader by the name Vedek Winn objects to the secular education on the station. Specifically, what the Federation teaches kids about the wormhole. Things escalate quickly.
SEE ALSO: These terrible episodes of 'Star Trek' are everything we love about 'Star Trek'
Season 1 Recommended:
Episode 6 – Captive Pursuit: Unusual alien visitors pop in through the wormhole, including one being hunted by a second alien in this excellent episode. Lots of Prime Directive chitchat.
Episode 8 – Dax: Dax is accused of a murder committed by one of her past hosts. This episode gives you an understanding of how Trill symbiotes work, which comes up frequently in the series.
Season 2 – The Dominion
It is in season two that we meet many of the factions and races that will play major roles in the rest of the series. There's a bit of a lull in the middle of season 2, but by the end you'll be hooked.
Episodes 1, 2, and 3 – This is a three-part story arc that deals with a rescued war hero and an attempted coup on Bajor. You will learn to hate Winn if you don't already after that education business last season.
Episode 7 – Rules of Acquisition: Quark leads Ferengi negotiations to set up a business in the Gamma Quadrant. The negotiations lead to talk of The Dominion, which will be important later in the series.
Episode 14 – Whispers: O'Brien believes his friends have been replaced by devious copies for some unknown purpose. Something is wrong aboard DS9, and O'Brien is the only one who seems to be able to see it. It's not part of the story arc, but it's fantastic anyway.
Episode 15 – Paradise: Sisko and O'Brien are marooned on a planet where technology is banned, and the enigmatic leader of the colony enforces the ban with extreme measures. A fantastic story.
Episodes 20 and 21 – The Maquis: This is the beginning of the Maquis storyline, which will play out for the next few seasons. It also crosses over to other Star Trek series like Voyager. It tells the story of Bajorans who reject the treaty with Cardassians and want to continue the war.
Episode 26 – The Jem'Hadar: Sisko encounters the Jem'Hadar for the first time. These soldiers of the Dominion are ruthless and efficient, but the leadership of the Dominion is still a mystery.
Episode 5 – Cardassians: This episode revolves around Cardassian sneakiness and a mysterious orphan. It's a Garak-heavy episode, which is great.
Episode 12 – The Alternate: Odo investigates a planet in the Gamma Quadrant that may hold the key to understanding his origins, but he also has to deal with the man who studied him for years before realizing he was a living being.
Episode 23 – Crossover: This is a mirror universe episode in the grand tradition of the original series. Kira and Bashir end up in the mirror universe of the 24th century, where a Klingon-Cardassian alliance rules the galaxy and humans are slaves. There is a depressing lack of evil goatees.
Season 3 – The Defiant
I feel like season 3 is where the series really takes off. The station finally gets its own starship — the USS Defiant — and the Federation realizes the Dominion could be a serious threat. At the same time, other powers in the Alpha Quadrant prepare to take matters into their own hands. There are also a few great two-part stories in this season, so make sure you leave time to watch both in a single sitting.
Episodes 1 and 2 – The Search: Using the newly acquired USS Defiant and its Romulan-approved cloaking device, the crew goes looking for The Dominion in the Gamma Quadrant. In the process, Odo finally learns about his origins.
Episode 9 – Defiant: Commander William Riker comes to the station… or does he? This one fits into the Maquis story arc.
Episodes 11 and 12 – Past Tense: Sisko, Bashir, and Dax are accidentally transported to the mid 21st century. It's a dark time in human history. These episodes are very well-done, but don't advance the story arc. Still, they're a must watch.
Episodes 20 and 21 – Improbable Cause and The Die is Cast: Some unlikely allies plan an all-out attack on the Dominion, and Odo is along for the ride. Garak plays a major role in this story, and there are tons of neat space battles.
Episode 26 – The Adversary: In the season finale, the crew learns just how dangerous Changelings can be as one infiltrates the Defiant.
SEE ALSO: Sir Patrick Stewart takes on superfan Pete Buttigieg in a surreal 'Star Trek' quiz
Episode 5 – Second Skin: Kira is kidnapped and surgically altered to look Cardassian, but her captors tell her she was always a Cardassian sleeper agent.
Episode 16 – Prophet Motive: Quark seeks to stop the Grand Nagus of the Ferengi from destroying traditional Ferengi ways. This is a fun one because Ferengi are hilarious.
Season 4 – The Klingons being Klingons
The 4th season of Deep Space Nine has more action as the Federation and Dominion continue on the road to war, but Worf (Michael Dorn) joins the crew of DS9 as well. Meanwhile, old alliances are starting to break down. There are a lot of excellent episodes in this season, so you'll have to forgive the longer list.
Episode 1 and 2 – The Way of the Warrior: The Klingons intend to start a war and want Federation assistance, but can Sisko stand by and let it happen? This episode contains one of the coolest space battles in the entire series.
Episode 7 – Starship Down: The Dominion crashes Federation trade negotiations in the Gamma Quadrant. The Defiant is badly damaged as it sinks into a gas giant's atmosphere.
Episode 8 – Little Green Men: Quark, Rom, Nog, and Odo are transported back to Roswell, New Mexico in 1947. Not part of the storyline, but there are some amusing callbacks to past episodes. This is a fantastic Ferengi episode with great humor.
Episodes 11 and 12 – Homefront and Paradise Lost: Captain Sisko and Odo investigate possible Changeling infiltrators on Earth. What they find is a sinister plot closer to home. This is a great two-part story because it shows a darker side of Starfleet, something DS9 goes back to several times.
Episode 14 – Return to Grace: Former Cardassian bigwig Dukat goes up against a Klingon ship with a lowly freighter. This episode makes Dukat into an almost likeable character, even to Kira.
Episode 18 – Rules of Engagement: Worf is put on trial for the destruction of a Klingon civilian transport. If found guilty, he could be extradited to the Klingon Empire and executed.
Episode 19 – Hard Time: One of my favorite episodes of DS9, even though it doesn't move the story arc forward. O'Brien is convicted of espionage on an alien world and sentenced to 20 years in prison, but his punishment is not all it appears to be. This is one of those episodes that will stick with you.
Episode 23 – To the Death: Sisko joins forces with the Dominion to stop a dangerous group of renegade Jem'Hadar. This episode marks the first appearance of the sickeningly polite Dominion overseer Weyoun. You'll see a lot of him going forward.
Episode 26 – Broken Link: Odo begins suffering from a strange disease, and only his fellow Changelings can help him. Of course, they aren't too happy with Odo.
Episode 2 – The Visitor: You will either love or hate this episode where Captain Sisko vanishes, leaving his son to wonder what happened.
Episode 4 – Hippocratic Oath: Dr. Bashir attempts to free the Jem'Hadar from Dominion control.
Episode 25 – Body Parts: Quark thinks he's dying, so he does what any Ferengi would do — he sells his soon to be desiccated remains on the open market. Have I mentioned I think the Ferengi are hilarious?
Season 5 – The Road to War
This is where all the plot lines in Deep Space Nine start coming together. Up to this point, the Federation has not been officially at war with the Dominion, but that might change soon. Changelings are everywhere, and the Federation still dealing with the Klingon Empire. Basically, the Alpha Quadrant is a huge mess.
Episode 1 – Apocalypse Rising: Sisko and the crew go undercover to expose a Changeling imposter at the highest levels of the Klingon Empire. Success could mean an end to the war.
Episode 2 – The Ship: The crew spots a crashed Jem'Hadar warship, which would be quite a prize for the Federation. Attempting to salvage the craft turns into a tense standoff with the Dominion.
Episode 6 – Trials and Tribble-ations: This is one of the most beloved episodes of Deep Space Nine, and with good reason. The crew has to travel back in time to preserve the timeline, finding themselves in an episode of the original Star Trek series. Specifically, the Tribble episode. The way the DS9 crew is merged with footage from the classic episode is awesome.
Episode 12 – The Begotten: Odo finds an infant Changeling who was sent out into the galaxy much as he was years before. The experience of caring for it affects him more than expected.
Episodes 14 and 15 – In Purgatory's Shadow and By Inferno's Light: This is it — the Dominion's invasion of the Alpha Quadrant begins, but the course of events surprises the Federation.
Episode 23 – Blaze of Glory: You could consider this the end of the Maquis story arc as the rebel group makes one last stab at Cardassia.
Episode 26: Call to Arms: The crew of DS9 race to mine the entrance of the wormhole in order to prevent Dominion reinforcements from reaching the Alpha Quadrant. At the same time, the Dominion plans its attack on the Federation. The season 5 finale marks the beginning of the Dominion War.
Episode 4 – …Nor the Battle to the Strong: Dr. Bashir and Jake Sisko respond to a distress call on a planet besieged by Klingons. This is a darker episode that explores how Starfleet respond to war.
Episode 20 – Ferengi Love Songs: Quark is bummed about his financial situation, which is of great importance to a Ferengi. He visits his mother and finds she's having a romantic relationship with the Ferengi Grand Nagus. As usual, Ferengi are hilarious.
Episode 22 – Children of Time: The Defiant passes through an anomaly that allows the crew to meet their own descendants. The catch — these people will only exist if the ship crash lands on a planet and maroons the crew forever.
Season 6 – The Dominion War
The sixth season of Deep Space Nine is as action-packed as any season of Star Trek ever produced. There are a few one-off episodes that don't relate to the war, but it's mostly about the Federation's struggle to withstand the onslaught of Dominion and Cardassian forces. The season premiere picks up three months into the war, and things are going badly for Starfleet.
Episode 1 – A Time to Stand: Sisko and the crew use a captured Dominion warship to stage a daring raid that could turn the tide.
Episode 4 – Behind the Lines: Sisko goes after a critical Dominion facility. Meanwhile Deep Space Nine is occupied by the Dominion, but Kira, Jake, Rom, and Odo work to undermine them.
Episodes 5 and 6: Favor the Bold and Sacrifice of Angels: The Dominion is close to disabling the wormhole minefield and bringing in the reinforcements that will allow them to conquer the Alpha Quadrant. Sisko leads a huge fleet of ships to retake Deep Space Nine and stop them. There's a spectacular space battle to behold in this one.
Episode 10 – The Magnificent Ferengi: This is another Ferengi episode, but it graduates from "recommended" to "essential" because it also has to do with the Dominion. Quarks mother is kidnapped by the Dominion, so he mounts an all-Ferengi rescue mission because why not?
Episode 18 – Inquisition: Dr. Bashir is interrogated by Starfleet security, suspected of being an unwitting Dominion spy. This is the first appearance of Section 31, a secret branch of Starfleet intelligence. Inquisition is another example of DS9 exploring the less-than-perfect side of the Federation.
Episode 19 – In the Pale Moonlight: Sisko hatches a plot to pull the Romulans into the war against the Dominion. This episode has a truly memorable ending.
Episode 26 – Tears of the Prophets: Starfleet begins its counterattack against the Dominion with Captain Sisko leading. In order to have a shot, the fleet must first disable powerful orbital weapon platforms guarding Cardassian space. Space battles? There are lots of them here.
Episode 9 – Statistical Probabilities: Dr. Bashir works with a group of genetically engineered (but very weird) geniuses to predict the course of the Dominion War. They conclude there is no way the Federation can win.
Episode 13 – Far Beyond the Stars: Captain Sisko contemplates leaving Starfleet, but begins having visions of himself as a 1950s writer in New York. This episode features most of the cast in Sisko's vision as humans without their alien makeup. It's an unusual, but very interesting episode.
Episode 22 – Valiant: Jake Sisko and Nog are rescued by a Defiant-class starship commanded entirely by elite Starfleet cadets. They end up making some very poor decisions.
Season 7 – What You Leave Behind
This is the final season of Deep Space Nine. It introduces some new characters and sums up the Dominion War story arc. I don't want to give too much away, but the wormhole aliens/Bajoran prophets also play a pivotal role in the end of the series.
Episode 1 – Image in the Sand: In the 7th season opener, Sisko seeks a way to contact the wormhole aliens while Deep Space Nine is commanded by Kira. I feel like this episode drags a little, but it's vital to the storyline.
Episode 2 – Shadows and Symbols: Sisko gets more than he bargained for when investigating his past and Kira faces a standoff with the Federation's new allies.
Episode 6 – Treachery, Faith, and the Great River: A Dominion overseer tries to defect, bringing with him important intelligence.
Episode 8 – The Siege of AR-558: This is another instance of DS9's take on Federation soldiers dealing with the stresses of war. Sisko and the crew bring supplies to the frazzled and demoralized troops defending an important communications outpost. When the Jem'Hadar attack, they stand their ground and fight.
Episode 9 – Covenant: Dukat has gone full-crazy and become the leader of a religious cult that kidnaps Kira. This episode sets up Dukat's role in the final plotline, so you'll want to watch it even if it seems unrelated to the arc.
Episode 16 – Inter Arma Enim Silent Leges: Dr. Bashir has another encounter with the mysterious Section 31.
Episodes 17 through 26: The final ten episodes of DS9 are part of a single story arc, so you need to watch all of them. Each episode moves the story closer to a conclusion. A great deal happens, too. There's a Cardassian rebellion, a new Dominion ally, the Federation continues pushing toward Cardassia, and Dukat begins making plans for his final gambit. Oh, and Kai Winn continues to be a jerk.
Episode 7 – Once More Unto the Breach: An old Klingon warrior asks Worf to help him find honor in battle once more time. He finds his bravado doesn't make up for his advanced age.
Episode 12 – The Emperor's New Cloak: Grand Nagus Zek is trapped in the mirror universe, so Quark and Rom go in to save him. Yay, Ferengi.
Star Trek: Deep Space Nine came along at a very interesting time. The huge success of Star Trek: TNG paved the way for the deep story arcs of DS9. The writers and producers knew they'd be able to finish what they started because Star Trek had a stable presence on TV.
Even if Star Trek returns to TV in the future, I don't know if it will ever be as plot-driven as DS9 was. That's why it's something to experience, even if you don't have time for all 176 episodes. Just follow the above guide and you'll hit all the high points.
This story originally appeared on Geek.
More in Star Trek


Congratulations to Natalie Bryans and Rachel Rinehardt for passing the Bar! They join a long line of our law clerks who transitioned as lawyers at Crabbe, Brown & James.
Larry James has been selected to serve on the Magistrate Judge Selection Committee. He is one of eleven members of the committee who will screen qualified applicants and recommend five candidates for a Magistrate Judge position in Columbus.


In the coming release of Bitcoin Core, the 18th version of the cryptocurrency's most widely used software, the code will finally, natively allow users to connect bitcoin full nodes to hardware wallets.
It sounds technical, but it's a big step for the security of the network. Bitcoin full nodes allow users to verify that transactions actually took place, meanwhile, hardware wallets are considered one of the most secure ways to store bitcoin. Thus, making it easier to join the two together is a big win for users who don't want full control of their bitcoin – and don't want to lose it.


By Anthony Crupi . Published on April 05, 2018.
When the U.S. men's team turfed out in the qualifying round of the 2018 FIFA World Cup, many stateside soccer fans were left without a primary rooting interest in the summer tournament. But as part of an inspired marketing initiative, Fox Sports and the genetic-research firm 23andMe are teaming up to help soccer enthusiasts select a squad that represents their ancestral origins.
Set to launch Thursday on the FS1 program "The Herd with Colin Cowherd," the 30-second "Root for Your Roots" spot features the exploits of international stars Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal), Lionel Messi (Argentina) and Neymar (Brazil) as they're cheered on by their supporters.
"You're connected to the World Cup," the spot's narrator intones, as the montage of athletes and aficionados unspools. "You may not speak the language or have visited the country, you may not know their heroes, but we're all connected to a World Cup nation through our DNA."
The spot closes with a tune-in reminder and a call to action: "This summer, root for your roots. Watch the FIFA World Cup on Fox and let Fox broadcast sponsor, 23andMe, help you find your team."
The "Root for Your Roots" campaign was cooked up by Wieden & Kennedy New York late last summer as a contingency plan in the event the U.S. team failed to book passage to Russia. Wieden's initial idea was to target the millions of Americans who don't know where their family tree was originally planted.
According to Robert Gottlieb, executive vP of marketing, Fox Sports, the broadcaster's in-house research discovered that 58 percent of fans who could not pinpoint their ancestral origins said they would watch more of the World Cup tourney if they did know from whence they came.
Then it was a matter of getting 23andMe onboard with the idea.
"Wieden early in the process pitched this as a Plan B stem," Gottlieb says. "We thought it might be a bit of a tough sell, but we approached 23andMe with the idea and they basically said 'yes' in the room."
After the "Root for Your Roots" spot bows on today's "The Herd" (it is scheduled to air sometime during the 2 p.m.-2:30 p.m. segment), it will pop up in other FS1/FS2 programming before making the jump this Saturday to Fox's regional sports networks and the broadcast flagship. The new spot is slated to air during Fox's April 7 afternoon broadcast of "UFC's Road to the Octagon" and in the network's subsequent coverage of the Nascar Xfinity Series race from Fort Worth, Texas. From there, the ad will begin appearing in off-network slots, including a high-profile run in TNT's April 10 NBA doubleheader (Celtics at Wizards, Rockets at Lakers).
An array of digital, social and out-of-home executions is in the works, and specially branded in-store display units will appear in Best Buy stores.
"On average, 23andMe customers find at least five different regions from around the world in their DNA," says Tracy Keim, VP of Consumer Marketing at 23andMe. "We hope this collaboration becomes a new way for people to experience global events like the World Cup."
Fox's coverage of the 2018 FIFA World Cup kicks off on Thursday, June 14 with a match between home squad Russia and Saudi Arabia. Among the Group Stage matches of interest include the June 15 all-Iberia showdown between Spain and Portugal, an intriguing Mexico-Germany pairing on June 17 and the always rewarding clash of Nigeria and Argentina on June 26.


Chris Brown and Trey Songz have big things in store for the fall. On social media, Breezy first broke the news with single Tweet that read: "THIS FALL is gonna be legendary! Get ready for me and @TreySongz Tour!!!!!!" Shortly, Trigga also followed up with a IG video message. Both Virginia-natives, the two recently performed on stage alongside August Alsina at the 2014 BET Awards back in June. Chris Brown's new album X is due September 16 as Trey Songz' Trigga LP debuted at No. 1 on Billboard's album charts earlier this summer.


I never try to stop you.
Know, there's a reason for all of this.
You're feeling low, it's not my call.
Me, I don't show much.
It's not that hard to hide you.
I want you to sigh and fall apart.
We want this like everyone else.
Stay, if you want to.
I always wait to hear you.
you couldn't love me more.
I want you to fly, not stop and start.
We want us like everything else.
it's just the end of the end of the world.
Me, I don't say much.
I couldn't love you more, I couldn't love you more.


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Independence Days
Diversity Months
Holiday Facts
Holiday Pay Rules
St. Andrew's Day in Scotland in 2020
The flag of Scotland is known as the Saltire.
How long until St. Andrew's Day?
This holiday next takes place in 315 days.
Dates of St. Andrew's Day in Scotland
2022 Wed, Nov 30Regional Holiday
2021 Tue, Nov 30Regional Holiday
2020 Mon, Nov 30Regional Holiday
2019 Mon, Dec 2Regional Holiday (in lieu)
2018 Fri, Nov 30Regional Holiday
St. Andrew's Day is celebrated annually on November 30th, as this is the generally accepted date of St. Andrew's death.
Related holidays
Saint Andrew the First-Called Day
When is Saint Andrew's Day?
St. Andrew's Day is the feast day of Saint Andrew.
The day is celebrated annually on November 30th, as this is the generally accepted date of St. Andrew's death in 60 AD.
St. Andrew's Day ('Là Naomh Anndrais' in Scottish Gaelic) is Scotland's National Day.
In 2006, the Scottish Parliament designated St. Andrew's Day as an official bank holiday, but banks are not required to close and it is left to employers to decide whether to give their staff a day off. Employers are not required by law to give employees a holiday on the St. Andrew's Day bank holiday.
Since 2002, the Saltire or Saint Andrew's Cross (Scotland's flag since 1521) must be flown from all Scottish Government buildings with a flagpole.
If November 30th falls on a weekend, the next Monday is a bank holiday instead.
Who was Saint Andrew?
St. Andrew was one of the Twelve Disciples of Jesus (Apostles) and was originally a fisherman like his brother, St. Peter. St. Andrew was Jesus' first disciple and is credited with spreading the gospel to Romania, Greece and Russia.
In 60 AD, he was preaching in Patras, where he baptised the wife and brother of the Governor, Aegeus. The Governor was so incensed by this, that St. Andrew was arrested and crucified.
It is believed that Andrew died on a diagonally transversed cross which the Romans sometimes used for executions and which, therefore, came to be called St. Andrew's cross. It is said that Andrew could have been crucified on a standard cross, but didn't see himself as worthy enough to die in the same manner as Jesus.
How did this Galilean fisherman become the Patron Saint of Scotland?
Andrew became the patron saint of Scotland around the middle of the 10th century. Legend states that a monk called Regulus (St. Rule) brought the relics of Andrew (his kneecap, arm and fingerbone) from Constantinople to the small coastal village of Kilrymont - where the modern town of St Andrews stands today. St Andrews Cathedral was built to house the relics in 1318, but both the cathedral and the relics were destroyed during the Scottish Reformation in the 16th century.
To help restore the sanctity of St Andrews, the Archbishop of Amalfi (Italy) donated a piece of the saint's shoulder blade, which now resides at St Mary's Metropolitan Cathedral, Edinburgh in a national shrine.
St Andrew's Day celebrations in Scotland are thought to date back to the 11th century and the reign of Malcolm III, who moved the Samhain festival ( Halloween) to coincide with this date in order to make sure enough animals were kept alive for winter stocks.
In addition to Scotland, Andrew is the patron saint of Barbados, Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Russia and Ukraine.
The story of St. Andrew (from www.scotland.org)
Office Holidays provides calendars with dates and information on public holidays and bank holidays in key countries around the world.
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Q: How to remove 4th letter in string using PHP? How to remove 4th letter in string using PHP ?
I use this code.
<?php
$str = "1234567890";
$str2 = mb_substr($str, 4);
echo $str2;
?>

But it's will echo 567890
I want to echo 123567890 remove 4 from string.
How can i do ?

A: You can try substr_replace for this. Here we are replacing 4 which is at 3rd index.
Try this code snippet here
<?php
$str = "1234567890";
echo substr_replace($str, "", 3,1);

A: try setting the 3rd index to null
<?php
$str = "1234567890";
$str[3] = null;
echo $str;

A: try with below sulution:
$str = '1234567890';
$str_arr = str_split($str);
unset($str_arr[3]);
echo implode('', $str_arr);

output:
123567890

A: There are multiple ways of performing any operations on string variables in php
// can be used for printing purpose
$str = "1234567890";
echo substr($str,0,3).substr($str,4);

// actual replacement of string
$str = "1234567890";
echo substr_replace($str, "", 3,1);


In Tuesday's late-night call in show I was joined by Clay (Mr. Biggs) and we ended up staying on the air for nearly 5 hours because the show was just that good.
I DID NOT REALLY DONATE $1,000 to Mr. Biggs. He's a liar.
Clay is a good co-host. I would watch a show where Brad and him just talk for an hour. That vape juice has him going.


A Europe consisting of many national markets would be economically unthinkable today. Yet, the history of the European single market is just half a century old. Not always did everything go smoothly, but besides justified criticism about the administrative insuffiencies achievements and merits are often forgotten. The Treaties of Rome, which are the basis of the European market, will be celebrating their 50th anniversary on March 25th. For this reason the EU commission publishes an anniversary brochure containing comprehensive information on the history of the EU.


Owning a business is an exciting endeavor, but keeping track of finances, along with the multitude of other responsibilities that business owners face, can become overwhelming. As a business grows, the accounting needs often become more complex. For those who are unfamiliar with accounting and bookkeeping terms and practices, this can cause a lot of added stress. In the event of a mistake, it could also mean losing money. To ensure that finances are being tracked and properly maintained, it is a good idea for business owners to seek the assistance of a professional bookkeeping business. Services like those offered by Ignite Spot can save small business owners both time and money.
Here at Ignite Spot, we specialize in providing outsourced business accounting services online for both owners of both medium and small businesses. Our firm, staffed by bookkeeping and accounting experts, works hard to ensure that our clients' businesses remain profitable. Through our business bookkeeping services, we help businesses increase profits, decrease expenses, and collect money that is owed to them. We save business owners time and limit their amount of financial and bookkeeping stress. We collect money that is owed to business owners through the use of invoices and collection calls. Collecting this money assists with improving profits in the business. Another way we increase profits is by simply decreasing business expenses. On average, we save our business owners approximately 45,000 dollars each year by eliminating unnecessary expenses. By handling these tasks in an efficient manner, we also save business owners a lot of time that they would otherwise have spent trying to accomplish these tasks themselves. In fact, we save our clients over 200 hours of time each year.
We save these hours by providing a wide variety of business accounting services. Our services include payroll, accounts payable and receivable, credit card management and financial reporting. Other business bookkeeping services that we provide include business bank and trial balance reconciliations, balance sheets, labor cost management, and debt planning and reduction. In addition to these general services, our team of accounting professionals also provides the kind of assistance with tax returns you would expect from a reputable bookkeeping business. Services from Ignite Spot can make life easier for a small business owner.
Our mission is to ensure that our clients' businesses become debt free and more profitable using our innovative accounting services. Business owners interested in reducing their debt and increasing their profits may download a pricing and fee guide instantly by filling out a short form or call us today at 1-855-694-4648 to inquire about the specific business accounting services we can provide for your business.


Colorectal cancer is the most commonly diagnosed form of cancer in Europe, with over 432 000 new cases diagnosed each year. By 2020, annual incidence is expected to rise to 502 000 cases (IARC, 2011). The annual incidence rate varies from 21 new cases per 100 000 population in Greece to 64 new cases in the Czech Republic. There are several factors that place certain individuals at increased risk for the disease, including age, the presence of polyps, ulcerative colitis, a diet high in fat and genetic background. Furthermore, males are at higher risk of developing colorectal cancer than females (IARC, 2011).