Getting Found Online: a Floor Covering Imperative!
This shouldn't come as a surprise to you, but I consider Getting Found Online a Floor Covering Imperative!
I made a case for it in my last blog article - Getting Started: Social Media For Floor Covering Businesses. In this post, I want to call your attention to an ebook from Google titled ZMOT: Winning the Zero Moment of Truth, by Jim Lecinski. Have you read it? It details what goes on for consumers between the moment they realize they have a want/need [i.e., stimulus] and when they make a purchase decision [aka the first moment of truth].
Here's a link to the blog article I wrote on the subject, titled Inbound Marketing and ZMOT: Perfect Together?
Although not a surprise - we are living through the implications of traditional advertising not delivering the results it used to whereas digital marketing, including social media, is becoming more effective - I was impressed that "84% of shoppers said that ZMOT shapes their decisions. It's now just as important as stimulus and FMOT in moving consumers from undecided to decided" [ZMOT, page 20].
Furthermore, it's happening all around us, including in our stores and on mobile devices, and not always in ways that we are comfortable with [see Customers, Digital Devices, The Retail Experience].
As you read through these resources, I'd love to hear what you've observed in your marketplace. How have your floor covering customers changed? How are they engaging in ZMOT activities? How are they finding you online? What are you doing that is helping you get found online? Which programs are generating the most traffic for you and which, the most leads?
By the way, if you're considering new approaches online, you might want to download my Getting Found Online: Inbound Marketing 101 guide.
Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments.
Is competitive cooperation possible in the flooring industry?
The economy and the floor covering industry continue to struggle. One leading CEO of a large manufacturer stated "the industry is years away from a full recovery." If this is indeed the case, how many of you will survive without making more strategic and innovative changes in your operating structure? In this environment there is no room for complacency or unnecessary costs. Many companies achieve economies of scale through consolidation but for some that may not be an option. If consuming a competitor is not the answer for you, then consider competitive cooperation.
Back in the late nineties I was president of a hardwood and vinyl flooring manufacturer that was assessing its distribution network - something manufacturers must do often. We tried an exercise and placed a dot on the map representing our distributors' branch warehouses and headquarters. The result was a map that looked like it had measles which told us there was a lot of waste and duplication in our supply chain. We knew our distributor network would be more cost effective with fewer but larger distributors so we floated the idea of consolidation. Naturally, this idea went down like a lead balloon and never got off the ground; sunk by questions like "who would be the boss?" and how much would I get for my business?" Lost was any constructive discussion about potential benefits and shared synergies.
But perhaps now the time has come to consider what some may have thought incomprehensible in the past. What seems incomprehensible to me now is that small distributors continue to operate warehouses and administrative systems of their own when it would be prudent to cooperate with a competitor and form a service company to perform the function of warehousing, deliveries, invoicing and other non selling operations. This would immediately reduce costs and add value for each company while enabling them to compete with each other.
This is not a new concept. A decade ago Jim Gould's third-party logisticscompany, Distribution Services, Inc., provided shared administrative and logistics services for flooring manufacturers eliminating the need for them to have order desks and claims departments. DSI offered invoicing, accounting, logistics and fulfillment services. Think about what your bottom line would look like if you could spread even some of these costs over a shared service center. These are the same kind of savings usually gained through consolidation - which has helped J.J. Haines remain one of the largest, most successful flooring distributors in the country.
Whether manufacturer, distributor or retailer, I urge you to consider new and innovative ways to reduce costs and build value for your company. Explore whether there is room for cooperation. If you cannot even contemplate talking to your competitors then at least research whether outsourcing to a third-party provider is a good strategy for you. While shared services and outsourcing may seem unpalatable from a jobs point of view, through this kind of action many jobs may be saved.
What do you think of the concept of competitive cooperation? Can it be helpful or is it impossible?
One of things is the economy. People seeking to sell their homes prior to being kicked out, banks trying to sell them, opportunists who steal these properties to sell them and realtors doing all these things. The sad thing about this whole affair is that beige doesn't help sell homes. In fact, it is an inhibitor. I've proved this on countless occasions persuading landlords and builders to let us use color in their units promising that they would be among the first to move or we would replace the carpeting. It's the sizzle! People didn't care whether it matched their furniture of not, they just wanted the most beautiful unit. Where did I get the courage to do this? My mother always told me that if everyone was doing it: It's wrong! The longer I live, the more I see the incredible wisdom of that statement.
Another factor is a bad economy depresses people, hence beige. During the Regan/Clinton years when everyone was rich and happy, color sold. Marketers employed by the mills have a huge influence over manufacturers and instead of listening to interior designers and decorators and moving forward, they tend to listen to people who know nothing about fashion—consumers. People who forecast color and style trends believe that at the end of this fix up and sell cycle consumers will become more confident and stable; the thirst for beige will end. Mill executives, influenced by their marketing people and looking at sales figures wrongly come to the conclusion that people prefer beige. When the siege mentality ends so will the thirst for beige.
Here's how I presented beige at my sales classes: "When you sell ugly beige and the customer gets it installed, what is the first thing customers do? Answer: They call their neighbor to come on over and then ask how they like it?" The neighbor answers: "Like what?" Because the new beige carpet doesn't look like new carpeting. If her friends ask where she purchased the carpeting it's only to make certain they will never go near your store.
The floor is the largest unbroken color area in most rooms and as such, needs to be selected first. This means your customer can choose any color they want. The worse thing consumers can do is to select other products and try to match the carpet to all of the stuff they selected. It has to be an educational process. First choose the color of the floor, then possibly the walls, window treatments and fabric in about that order. We don't sell flooring. We create beautiful rooms.
No home interiors product can be customized so easily, do so much to beautify the home, in so little time for so little money than colorful carpet. It is easily one of the best consumer buys on the market and yet we are losing market share.
First, get over the fallacy that beige can help rent apartments and sell homes, mill executives have to listen to design professionals and become trend setters, stop making and selling high pile soft yarns (just had to throw that in) and pray we elect those who can help lead us out of this Keynesian economic mess.
Meanwhile, at least provide a rudimentary design education for your people. Hire designers on your floor and educate your customers about creating a beautiful home and how much better they will feel sans ugly beige. I was always a contrarian retailer. You know, someone who has a preference for going against the grain. Contrarians usually win. In these times, it isn't going to hurt to try something new.
Who would have thought that you could be a contrarian by not focusing on beige?
Flooring retailers often get blamed when a tile installation goes bad. The installer is typically the last person the homeowner sees and if everything goes well you and the installer are golden. But when the installation goes wrong, everyone comes under scrutiny. Bad installations ruin customer relations and are enormously expensive to rectify, especially when water damage from a faulty shower install causes massive collateral damage throughout a house. Properly trained installers can avoid such a catastrophe - that's what this post is about.
We have learned that ceramic and stone installation failures are not usually the result of one deficiency, but rather a combination of compounding deficiencies. One of those deficiencies typically involves installer error. Combined, they can sabotage the most beautiful tile and stone designs and create potentially dangerous conditions that lead to very costly repairs.
Here is an example of compounding deficiencies in the construction of a condominium shower that led to massive damages to the surrounding walls and other rooms in the home.
Moisture is one of the most destructive elements to the construction industry causing various types of deterioration and microbial growth that can be a health hazard. A shower is considered a high risk application because it is exposed to water on a regular basis. An average size shower used once a day for 12 minutes is subjected to approximately 690 inches of water per year! Compare this to a typical California roof that only gets about 10 to 20 inches of rain a year or "wet" geographic areas that get 100 or so inches of rain per year. It's common sense that a shower should receive at least as much attention as a roof when it's constructed, but believe it or not, it's often overlooked.
Properly installed showers have waterproof membranes between the substrate and floor tile that should continue up the walls for a few inches. Building codes state that the membrane must be water tight; not punctured with nails or other protrusions, and the membrane should be tested prior to installing tile over it to ensure it doesn't leak. Industry standards require that the substrate beneath the membrane slope towards the drain at the rate of ¼" per foot – to ensure water runs toward the drain.
In this condo, the membrane wasn't welded properly and water was allowed to intrude beneath it. The substrate was not slopped properly; in some areas it was even sloped away from the drain. Plumbing codes and industry standards require a special two part drain to be used in showers with weep holes allowing any water that gets trapped between the tile and the waterproof membrane to escape. Our investigation of the condo shower revealed that the weep holes were plugged with cement, further compounding the other deficiencies.
How the collateral damage occurred. The condo had sound control board throughout. This type of board is vented and provides a continuous opening that leads all over the rest of the home. The water from the shower leaked through the defectively seamed waterproof membrane and then traveled away from the shower through the open sound control board collecting in wall cavities and under hardwood flooring of adjacent rooms. The result was massive water damage and microbial growth in a number of rooms.
To remediate the mold, all of the adjacent flooring and subflooring had to be replaced, along with all of the water damaged walls. (http://www.epa.gov/mold/). The ultimate cost to remediate one condo was well over two hundred thousand dollars! The irony of it all is that, after all of the shower and adjacent flooring was removed, the only dry spot in the whole area was at the drain under the shower because the substrate was improperly sloped away from the drain rather than towards it!
So what's the moral of the story? You have to make sure that installers know and follow industry standard and that they have clear specifications of how to do the work properly.
- Installers should be provided specifications from architects or product manufacturers to ensure they are properly constructing installations and using the products correctly.
- Installations should not start until the substrate is known to be properly constructed and prepared.
- Installers must be properly trained in the trade. Typically, tile and stone installers learn on the job and do not attend formalized schooling. They will frequently say they've been doing installations the same way for 20 or 30 years without any problem. But that is the problem! Many installers are not current on today's industry standards. Unintentional mistakes can be made that can cost owners thousands of dollars in collateral damages.
- Use qualified third-party quality control inspections, especially in high risk applications such as showers or exterior veneers. This not only keeps installers in check during the installation process, but it also teaches them proper methods. If you think you can't afford third party quality control, then homeowners themselves should fill that role by doing the research on industry standards and reading the product data sheets to make sure their installers follow them. It's a lot less expensive to pay for quality control at the beginning of a project than to pay for fixing a failure at the end.
We can't control how well an installer is educated in his or her trade. Most installers learn on the job. There is a need for more readily available, formal training for installers, and we have addressed that with the new UofCTS online TITC Certified Installer training course. The course is called Tile Installer Thin-set Certification (TITC) course for installers who install ceramic tile, glass tile and stone products at http://uofcts.org/certification-program/tile-installer-thinset/.
How do you avoid tile shower failures? By making sure installers are properly trained, by making sure they are TITC Certified by UofCTS. Showers require a lot of protection from water, and tile and stone are good products to provide that protection, if they are installed correctly.
Visit our website for a free copy of quality control steps for your tile installations.
When there is a problem, regardless of who is at fault, everyone involved will pay one way or the other in money, time or reputation.
The most exciting product at Domotex 2011 (both Germany and Shanghai) was a unique LVT called SuperClick - the fastest, easiest click system ever developed which effortlessly joins tiles while eliminating the performance issues experienced by existing LVT click systems. This morning SuperClick and Beaulieu International Group (BIG) announced big news for the international LVT market. SuperClick and Beauflor will take the SuperClick technology to market across the globe under the names SuperClick and Dream Click.
I had the pleasure of working with SuperClick and am pleased that this technology will be coming to you soon. Here is their press release which just went out this morning and is already getting picked up by the press.
As a floor coverings industry analyst who pours over housing data on a daily basis, the trends I have seen over the past five years have been pretty depressing. I have to contend with the daily headlines about foreclosures, tight credit conditions, declining home values, and sharp drops in new and existing homes. So you can imagine how I felt when I saw the latest positive trends for multi-family housing construction. In the first seven months of 2011, permits for new multi-family housing units jumped by 25.4% and starts soared by 51.7%. Starts for multi-family rental units were up at an even sharper rate, closer to 60.0%. Compare that to new single-family homes which are down by about 16.0%.
Declining home values, high unemployment rates and weak income gains that limit the ability to purchase a home mean more families no longer see the financial benefits of home ownership. As a result, the U.S. home ownership rate has dropped to 66.5% in 2010, down from 69.2% in 2004. Meanwhile those renting homes have increased by some two million over the past five years.
As rental property owners and developers take advantage of the shift to rentals, the multi-family rental market could become one of the bright spots for the U.S. floor coverings industry for the remainder of 2011 and for 2012.
The weak home buying market has increased the number of renters and reduced apartment vacancy rates. According data released by Reis, Inc. and reported by Bloomberg, the apartment vacancy rate declined to 6.2% in the first quarter of 2011, down from 8.0% a year earlier. Over the same period, apartment rents were increasing at 2.5% to 3.0% nationally, and over 5.0% annually in some strong markets such as New York City and Virginia. These trends caused property owners to make improvements and developers to start new projects as apartment building finances improved.
This increased activity in the multi-family rental market has caused that segment to take an increasing share of the residential floor coverings market. This is especially true in the broadloom sector, since wall-to-wall carpet covers a greater share of the typical rental unit. As a result, Catalina Research estimates that about one-third of total U.S. broadloom sales are now attributed to the multi-family rental market (renters, property managers, and builders), despite the average rental unit being about 30.0% smaller than average owned housing unit.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, there are approximately 60,000 lessors of residences and 38,000 residential property managers. Catalina estimates that together these two buyers purchase about $1 billion in broadloom annually (in manufacturers dollars) or about three quarters of the multi-family rental broadloom market and about 25.0% of total U.S. residential replacement carpet sales.
To succeed in the floor coverings industry today, you must be able to take advantage of the opportunities in this important and growing market. What information do you need to exploit this growing market?
The Conference Board publishes the widely reported "Consumer Confidence Index" every month. It is often an accurate predictor of floor covering and home furnishings sales.
What isn't widely known is that the report can be dissected into a "Present Situation Index" as well as an "Expectations Index." For business owners the former is more relevant because Americans are historically an optimistic lot.
Despite their falling confidence in the present situation, Americans are still spending money in some sectors. In fact, Americans have acquired half a million luxury cars year to date. Perhaps a poor economy and a collective bad mood aren't always to blame for lackluster sales. What can the floor covering industry do to parrot the car industry and break-away from the housing industry doldrums?


Our ideal candidate enjoys a hands-on work environment and is looking for a job where they can prove they can learn new tasks, advance and take any and all responsibility for their safe work behavior and the safety of their coworkers. The Shift Miller works under the direction of the Head Miller and is responsible for the optimum-milling yield while maintaining maximum production on their respective shift. During their shift, the Miller is responsible for the safe operation of the flour mill and cleaning house.
Bartlett Milling, a Savage Company, is a diverse, agri-business company headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri. Its principal businesses are grain merchandising and logistics, exporting, flour milling and feed manufacturing. Family-owned and growth oriented, the company has facilities in Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, North and South Carolina, Virginia and Mexico. Financially strong and highly disciplined, we use our expertise to provide our customers with the highest quality and best service possible. Throughout our operations, safety, cleanliness, and facility maintenance are a top priority and, as such, all employees must be absolutely committed to following our disciplined safety policies and procedures.
Perform regular inspections throughout the mill. Inspections are to be coordinated with the Mill Assistant to provide continuous inspection rounds throughout the mill.
Responsible for taking extractions according to company procedures. All extractions should be entered in the Extraction Form pursuant to company procedures.
Inspect middling rolls for proper grind pursuant to company procedures.
Perform timed weigh-off and calculation of production rates according company procedures.
Assist in the coordination and management the cleaning house.
Take feed and/or flour samples to the lab for testing.
Communicate and hand-off milling operations to on-coming shift miller in a best practices manner.
Effectively communicate tasks, directives and policies with both senior management and supervised workers.
Experience with agriculture, farm equipment or milling is preferred.
This job can be physically strenuous (demanding) from time to time, and a successful candidate will be expected to be able to work in tight and confined spaces, walk, climb, bend, kneel, lift, grip, grasp, push and pull various tools and equipment. This job may require the ability to ride a belt man lift and occasionally work at significant heights, with requisite balance and equilibrium. The job requires the ability to frequently lift, push and pull up to 50 pounds and occasionally more. This job requires the ability to ascend/descend ladders.
It is important to have vision that permits close vision, distance vision, peripheral vision, depth perception and the ability to adjust focus. If it is necessary in this position to grade grain, the ability to identify and distingush colors is also important.
Our ideal candidate enjoys a hands-on work environment and is looking for a job where they can prove they can learn new tasks, advance and take any and all responsibility for their safe work behavior and the safety of their coworkers. These tasks include, but are not limited to, sweeping and vacuuming floors, cleaning the warehouse, trash collections and removal, and assisting with routine facility maintenance.
Perform job tasks in a safe manner in compliance with Bartlett safe work practices, programs and procedures.
Continuously clean assigned areas through the facility.
Anticipate and remedy problems (chokes, motor problems, machine dysfunctions, line breaks and so forth) through constant visual and audio inspections of equipment, report problems to area supervisor and perform cleaning tasks as needed.
Perform GMP activities such as cleaning, routine maintenance and repairs as assigned.
Keep work areas clean by cleaning up spills, dust and other debris in a timely manner.
Perform any cleaning and remedial tasks as assigned.
Ability to read and comprehend written and oral operational and safety instructions and related rules, policies and memos, and to communicate clearly with co-workers and supervisors.


It excludes leaves and debris from the gutter while allowing all the rain water to flow through quickly.
It will help reduce the incedence of ice damaging and prevents the gutter from becoming an ice anchor hanging dangerously from your home.
It will exclude Mosquitoes, Bee's and other pests that would like to live or breed in the gutter, this is very important protection as the gutter is a primary place around the home where Mosquitoes breed. This product would eliminat a primary source of infestation around your home.
This product is made from 100% recycled polyethylene fiber. The patent pending design is protected by a Flame Retardant, a UV Stabilizer and a Germicide. Over the hanger installation allows great water flow and the smooth finish sheds leaves and debris easily.
It includes a peel and seal strip on the back side to secure it in place and ensure a fast and easy installation.
The strength and durability are some of the key features of this porduct, it can withstand heavy downward forces while maintaining it's filtering capability at times of heavy debris fall or heavy snow and ice.
It is availably in most residential and commercial gutter styles and sizes.
The OMEZONE Defend Mosquito Patch is a topically applied patch that repels mosquitoes and other biting insects! The Omezone Defend Mosquito Patch is 100% safe and harmless to children and pets, yet so effective it keeps mosquitoes and other blood-sucking insects away for up to 36 hours!
Just one small OMEZONE Defend Mosquito Patch creates an invisible and virtually impenetrable shield against the ill effects of mosquitoes and the diseases they may carry. Within two hours of application, these annoying creatures will know that you're off limits and will quickly move on and leave you alone! The repellent effects last up to 36 hours - even during hot and humid weather!
Research has shown that Thiamine (Vitamin B1), the key ingredient in the OMEZONE Defend Mosquito Patch, when topically applied, actually helps repel insects like mosquitoes and flies. The thiamine-based formulation of OMEZONE Defend works with the body's own chemistry to create an invisible protective "barrier" that shields the user from mosquitoes and other biting insects.
The OMEZONE Defend Mosquito Patch contains no pesticides and is totally safe and approved for use on children as young as one year of age, unlike DEET.
Copyright 2014 Blue Diamond Pest Services. All rights reserved.


text:
namespace EntityFrameworkInit
{
    using System;
    using System.Collections.Generic;
    using System.Collections.ObjectModel;
    using System.Data.Entity.Migrations;
    using System.Linq;

    using Ketchup.Model.Product;
    using Ketchup.Persistence.EntityFramework;

    class Seeder : IKetchupSeeder
    {
        /// <summary>
        /// Gets the methods to invoke to seed the <see cref="KetchupContext"/>.
        /// </summary>
        public IEnumerable<Action<KetchupContext>> SeedMethods
        {
            get
            {
                return new List<Action<KetchupContext>> { Seeder.AddProductAttributeTypes, Seeder.AddProductCategory };
            }
        }

        public static void AddProductAttributeTypes(KetchupContext context)
        {
            context.ProductAttributeTypes.AddOrUpdate(new ProductAttributeType
            {
                Name = "Price",
                DisplayName = "Product Price",
                ValidationRegularExpression = @"^\d+[.]{1}(\d){2}$"
            });

            context.ProductAttributeTypes.AddOrUpdate(new ProductAttributeType
            {
                Name = "Name",
                DisplayName = "Product Name",
                ValidationRegularExpression = @"^$"
            });

            context.SaveChanges();
        }

        public static void AddProductCategory(KetchupContext context)
        {
            var price = context.ProductAttributeTypes.First(pat => pat.Name == "Price");
            var name = context.ProductAttributeTypes.First(pat => pat.Name == "Name");

            var category = new ProductCategory
            {
                Name = "Default Product Category"
            };

            context.ProductCategorys.AddOrUpdate(pc => pc.Name, category);

            var specifications = new []
            {
                new ProductCategorySpecificationAttribute
                {
                    Attribute = price,
                    ProductCategory = category,
                    ProductAttributeTypeId = price.Id,
                    ProductCategoryId = category.Id
                },
                new ProductCategorySpecificationAttribute
                {
                    Attribute = name,
                    ProductCategory = category,
                    ProductAttributeTypeId = price.Id,
                    ProductCategoryId = category.Id
                },
            };

            context.ProductCategorySpecificationAttributes.AddOrUpdate(
                pcsa => new { pcsa.ProductAttributeTypeId, pcsa.ProductCategoryId },
                specifications);
        }
    }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
IPL 2019: Three Teams Who Might Change their Captains
by Sportzwiki Editor
Rahane is excited to lead Rajasthan Royals in the IPL 2019. Photo Credit: IPL/BCCI.
In the limited-overs cricket, batting, bowling and fielding are not only enough for a team to be at the top. It also requires the skill of captaining the side and who he can handle every possible situation. Here we will take a look at three teams who could change their captains in the twelveth edition of the Indian Premier League (IPL 2019).
Currently, with eight teams, each team plays each other twice in a home-and-away round-robin format in the league phase. However, the top four teams will qualify for the playoffs, and the top two teams from the league phase will play against each other in the first Qualifying match. The winner goes straight to the IPL final, and the loser gets another chance to qualify for the IPL final by playing the second Qualifying match.
Meanwhile, the third and fourth place teams from league phase play against each other in an eliminator match and the winner from that match will play the loser from the first Qualifying match. The winner of the second Qualifying match will move onto the final to play the winner of the first Qualifying match in the IPL final match, where the winner will get crowned the Indian Premier League champions.
Let us look at the three teams that are expected to be in the race for switching their leaders:
1. Rajasthan Royals
Three teams who might change their captains ahead of IPL 2019.
Rajasthan Royals had a decent outing in the IPL 2018, as they hold the fourth position on the list. However, it had happened due to individual performance and not for the leadership quality. Ajinkya Rahane who captained the last season for RR has been struggling with his batting in recent times. His production in Test cricket has dipped a lot which is quite evident, as his batting average has dropped from nearly 50 to just 41.
However, it might have affected his captaincy as well. Moreover, with his performance not up to the mark, if Rahane had to take another burden of leading the side might hamper his batting capabilities as well as on his teammates.
Rajasthan Royals should try England's wicket-keeper batsman, Jos Buttler for the role. He his having good luck and can take the extra burden with his calm nature which might be suitable for a high-pressure skipper situation in a T20 format.
2. Kings XI Punjab
Ravichandran Ashwin who led the team Kings XI Punjab in the last edition holds the seventh position in the 11th edition of the IPL. It will be a tough call for Punjab to withdraw captaincy of the newly appointed skipper. Moreover, the 32-year-old is not having a good time, as he is unable to provide results out of his bowling and batting as well.
In addition to, with his performance it is difficult to grab a spot for the next year's IPL. KXIP should turn up to KL Rahul for the new role. The opening batsman is an experienced cricketer and has years of cricket ahead of him who could be a long-term investment for his team. They have frequently been changing captains and can try the fiery opener, Kl Rahul.
3. Delhi Daredevils
Though having a lot of young talents in Delhi Daredevils, the franchise is still waiting to put hands on the trophy. The 2018 IPL was yet another dreadful season for the DD, as they stand in the last position of the table. Veteran Gautam Gambhir got dropped from the captaincy in the middle, and Shreyas Iyer took the burden of carrying the team for the rest of the tournament.
However, Iyer had batted quite well, but he couldn't impress many with his captaincy skill. He was not an experienced cricketer and will surely need time to grab the uphill task. DD who was missing the Indian southpaw Shikhar Dhawan has entered into the side and willpower their batting line up. Maybe, DD think they've found a new captain for their side too.
Indian Premier League 2019 IPL 2019
Kings XI Pujab
Virat Kohi
Sportzwiki Editor
'No, Absolutely Not'- James Anderson On His Retirement Speculations
Rohit Sharma Takes A Jibe At ICC, Says "Not Easy To Work From Home"
Chennai Super Kings Troll Sanjay Manjrekar After He Is Dropped From Commentary Panel
Australia-New Zealand Series Postponed Due To Coronavirus Outbreak
India Pulled Off Astonishing 2-1 Series Win To Be Remembered For Long Time: Shahid Afridi
Rohit Sharma Hilariously Uses Cuss Word After India's Victory At Brisbane

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
La riserva naturale di Tigrovaya Balka è un'area protetta situata in Tagikistan, nei pressi del confine afghano, nell'area dove i fiumi Vachš e Pjandž si uniscono a formare l'Amu Darya. Si estende da sud-ovest a nord-est per più di 40 km.

Geografia
La maggior elevazione del parco raggiunge circa 1200 m sul livello del mare. Il clima è continentale e arido; l'area di Tigrovaya Balka comprende vari habitat, tra cui semideserti, praterie simili a savane con alberi di pistacchio e i caratteristici tugai, boschetti rivieraschi di pioppi, oleastri russi ed erbe alte.

Fauna
Quest'area costituì una delle ultime roccaforti della tigre del Caspio, le cui tracce nella riserva vennero viste per l'ultima volta nel 1953. Oggi Tigrovaya Balka è ancora la dimora di quella che era la principale preda delle tigri, il raro cervo di Bukara. Tra le altre grandi specie della riserva ricordiamo iene striate, sciacalli, gatti della giungla, cinghiali, gazzelle subgutturose, istrici, nutrie (introdotte dall'uomo), lupi, volpi rosse e, sulle colline, anche urial.

Note

Collegamenti esterni

Geografia del Tagikistan
Aree naturali protette del Tagikistan

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
U.S. FCC Votes to Bar China's Huawei, ZTE from Government Subsidy Program
Enterprise & IT	 Nov 22,2019	 0
The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) voted on Friday to designate China's Huawei and ZTE as national security risks, barring their U.S. carrier customers from tapping an $8.5 billion government fund to purchase equipment.
The telecommunications regulator also voted to propose requiring those carriers to remove and replace equipment from Huawei Technologies Co Ltd and ZTE from existing networks. The proposal also seeks comment on how to pay for such removal and replacement. And to aid in the design of a removal and replacement program, the FCC will conduct an information collection to determine the extent to which eligible telecommunications carriers have equipment from Huawei and ZTE in their networks and the costs associated with removing and replacing such equipment.
"As the United States upgrades its networks to the next generation of wireless technologies—5G—the risk that secret "backdoors" in our communications networks will enable a hostile foreign power to engage in espionage, inject malware, or steal Americans' data becomes even greater," the FCC said.
"Both Huawei and ZTE have close ties to the Chinese government and military apparatus and are subject to Chinese laws requiring them to assist with espionage, a threat recognized by other federal agencies and the governments of other nations. The public funds in the FCC's USF, which subsidizes U.S. broadband deployment and service through four separate programs, must not endanger national security through the purchase of equipment from companies posing a national security risk."
Huawei and ZTE will have 30 days to contest the designation and a final order compelling removal of equipment is not expected until next year at the earliest.
Huawei called the order "unlawful" and asked the FCC "to rethink its profoundly mistaken order." It argued the FCC's decision was based "on nothing more than irrational speculation and innuendo."
In May, Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency and barring U.S. companies from using telecommunications equipment made by companies posing a national security risk. The Trump administration also added Huawei to its trade blacklist in May, citing national security concerns.
Rural U.S. telecom carriers that depend on inexpensive Huawei and ZTE switches and equipment were in discussion with Ericsson and Nokia to replace their Chinese equipment.
On Monday, the Commerce Department issued a new 90-day temporary license to allow U.S. firms to do business with Huawei to minimize the impact on rural U.S. carriers.
Tags: HuaweizteFCC
IBM's Project Debater Debated With Itself About AI
Sony's Optical Disc Archive Generation 3 Offers a Capacity of 5.5TB and 375MB/sec Transfer Speed per Drive
EU Will Not Explicitly Name Huawei in Upcoming 5G Risk Rules
ZTE CTO Highlights Challenges and Expectations of the 5G Era
China's ZTE Announced $1.7 billion A-share Sale to fund 5G R&D
Huawei Unveils The openEuler CentOS-based Linux Distribution
Huawei's Smartphones Sell Well, But Company Expects Difficulties in 2020
Huawei's P40 and P40 Pro Smartphones Will Ship Without Google Mobile Services
Huawei Opens 5G Innovation and Experience Centre in London
New ZTE 5G Axon 10s Pro Smartphone is Compatible with 5G SA and NSA Modes


Alan Baron, who was a wise and witty man of politics, used to tell this true story to remind those who worked in politics like he did that in some election years, the outcome is determined by events and forces completely beyond any candidate's or her campaign's control.
As a 21-year-old, Baron was managing in his heavily Republican hometown of Sioux City, Iowa, a long-shot congressional campaign for an underfunded Democrat when Vincent Burke, the frankly sacrificial Democratic nominee for a solidly Republican state Senate seat, approached him with a request for $300. Burke wanted to rent a sound truck on which he would put signs endorsing all the Democratic candidates and drive around the county urging all within earshot to vote for incumbent Lyndon Johnson for president, Harold Hughes for governor, Stan Greigg for Congress and himself for state Senate. Baron, who doubted the persuasive effectiveness of a sound truck and did not have the $300, gently turned down Burke, who somewhere found the money, got the truck and drove it blaring throughout the county.
Sometimes in election years, Baron understood, it makes little difference how brilliant — or how flawed — a campaign a candidate runs; the outcome is beyond his control. In 2018, there is one poll question that, frankly, terrifies Republican candidates. It is this: Which one of the following statements best describes your feelings toward the president?
A) Like him personally and approve of many of his policies.
B) Like him personally but disapprove of most policies.
C) Don't like him personally but approve of many of his policies.
D) Don't like him personally and disapprove of many of his policies.
It is a question that has been asked consistently about presidents from Ronald Reagan through Barack Obama. Mostly, it turns out, American voters personally like the man in the White House. What may have doomed the Democrats' failed challenges to Reagan was that almost 7 out of 10 voters personally liked the Gipper even though just a slim plurality approved of his policies.
The "like him personally" numbers for other chief executives were similarly impressive: Solid majorities of Americans continued to personally like both Presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton even when their administrations endured tough patches. For Obama and President George H. W. Bush, 3 out of 4 voters recorded themselves in the "like him personally" column.
Which brings us to GOP anxiety in this midterm, which, as always, will be a voter referendum on the voters' judgment of the sitting president. In 2018, according to a Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll, fewer than 3 out of 10 voters like President Donald Trump personally, while a supermajority of 7 out of 10 don't like him personally, including a probably motivated majority of people who both do not like Trump personally and disapprove of many of his policies.
Alan Baron, if he were alive today, might assure nervous GOP candidates — as he learned from Vincent Burke in Sioux City in 1964 — that November results are, unfortunately, oft way beyond a candidate's control.


We have learned so many things in our geography lecture where the teacher literally teaches us about the earth and all over the universe but we think she has left some which were not in our school textbooks. Here we have present to you some facts that will impress even the most avid readers who had no clue about these facts.
According to the studies, the Chimborazo volcano is a bit taller than the Everest mountain. The measuring height of the Chimborazo mountain is 3,967 miles and for Everest, it is almost 3,964 miles a little bit shorter than the volcano.
Yes, it is true you can be at 4 corners without traveling there. The four corners is a region where Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico meet each other. Well, someone gives you a dare that if you can be in 4 states at once then you know where you have to go.
Well, the study confirmed that the world's largest desert is located in Antarctica. We know you must be wondering that desert region has been known as the place for hot climate and sand but it is known as the region where everything is dry with no water, rain, snow, trees or planets so cold regions can be considered as the deserts.
This island is located in the river Bidassoa and it is mainly owned by the country Spain and France accordingly where these countries switch the island for every 6 months.
This saltwater lake is almost coming to the end but now it has reached below sea level dropping by 39 inches every year.
This cave in China is so huge that it has its own climate and plants. And the localities there usually predict the weather just by watching the cave's climate.
There was a time when the Appalachian mountain was once considered as the taller one compared to the Himalayas but it has been said that Appalachian mountain is getting shorter and the Himalayas are getting taller day by day. The reason is the constant movement of India putting pressure on the Asian continent.
Guatemala sinkhole was not formed by natural force but created by humans and it has been said that a burst sewer pipe or storm drain may probably be made a hole underground.
These both islands belong to Russia and USA accordingly were their timing is totally different from others despite sitting close to each other.
This drain hole is located in Lake Berryessa in California where it has been created by humans to drain the excess water during dry seasons.
>> Ever Wondered Why Greenland Is Icy and Iceland Is Green?


Immediately west of the coastline's famous Cape Hatteras, the village of Buxton, NC, lies on the widest part of Hatteras Island. This section of the island contains something very rare — a densely vegetated maritime forest known as Buxton Woods (formerly known as Cape Hatteras Woods), which stretches through present-day Buxton and Frisco. It is also the highest point on the island. As the highest, widest and most densely vegetated area of Hatteras Island, it is a safe haven that has always been one of the most heavily populated areas. A post office was established at the eastern edge of the woods in 1873, and it was named The Cape. The name of the post office was changed to Buxton, NC, in 1882.
Native Americans lived year round throughout this wooded area. It is believed that the Native American colony stretched from the northern end of present-day Buxton all the way through the southern end of present-day Frisco.
Before the paved highway was built through the island, Buxton, NC's, sand roads meandered through the woods under canopies of trees leading to dwellings, the schoolhouse, general stores and churches. Today, most everything in Buxton is centered on the main road, but there are still some homes tucked back in the woods. Part of the woods is now the Buxton Woods Coastal Preserve, and it's a popular but protected Buxton attraction.
If one thing identifies Buxton, NC, it has to be the famous black-and-white, spiral-striped Cape Hatteras Lighthouse. The lighthouse has become the icon of the island, representing the hopeful, stalwart, survivalist attitude that is so pervasive among the people of Hatteras. This is one of the most famous lighthouses in the nation, especially since it survived a controversial, precarious move in 1999. In the hands of the National Park Service, the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse is open to the public.
Buxton, NC, is known as a surfer's haven. The Eastern Surfing Association began holding its annual championships at the lighthouse in 1972, exposing the area to surfers from along the East Coast, and Mother Ocean has drawn them here ever since. But there are lots of other Buxton things to do. Prefer to keep on dry land? Then go mini-golfing, hike in Buxton Woods or on National Park Service trails, play arcades, climb the lighthouse for an amazing view (and workout! it's 257 stairs high), ride a horse along the beach, play tennis, visit the skatepark, settle into some yoga classes, take a guided tour of the island in an air-conditioned van, get a massage or listen to live music. Fishing, in all its forms, is a major draw for many visitors. But, if being in, on or above the water is more your scene, try surfing or kiteboarding (take lessons locally), go SUPing or kayaking or just dive into the ocean and let all your care wash away.
Without a doubt, the biggest Buxton, NC, attraction is the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse. The spiraling black and white structure has become iconic, and plenty of people visit the Outer Banks just to see this beacon and the four others found here: Ocracoke Lighthouse, Bodie Island Lighthouse, Roanoke Marshes Lighthouse and the Currituck Beach Lighthouse. From late April through Columbus Day you can climb it starting at 9 a.m. You must measure at least 42 inches tall. Another Buxton attraction is Buxton Woods, a diverse maritime forest that transports you into an environment filled with pine and oak trees amidst swamp forests and marsh wetlands. There are plenty of critters that make this forest home too. It's a place many visitors have no idea even exists on these barrier islands, and it's well worth your respectful visit.
Let's start with the local bookstore, a place you'll want to spend hours in. Buxton, NC, shopping spreads out from there. Of course there are seafood markets where you can't get any fresher fish and a well-stocked local grocery store. And of course, with fishing being one of the kings of Buxton activities, there are several tackle shops that have every single thing you need to hook a big one. Then there are home decor shops, several very good clothing stores, surf and water sport shops, garden centers, toy stores, an ABC liquor store and ice cream shops. Several excellent art galleries bring beauty and class to town.
Buxton, NC, restaurants are some of the most varied on Hatteras Island. The creativity of the chefs at some of them brings local seafood to your plate in ways you might never have tasted, but the tastiness doesn't stop with fruits of the sea. There are dishes inspired by Caribbean, Mexican and Pacific Rim flavors, organic beef and chicken, hand-tossed pizzas, sandwich shops featuring inventive lunch options, BBQ, burgers and fries and more. Several places are open for breakfast including a bakery that's been there forever and serves Apple Uglies (you have to try one!).
You'll find more old-school Buxton, NC, hotels (well, in truth, they're motels – the old, drive up to your door type) left than in any other Outer Banks town. These remaining places have become treasures in and of themselves since most have been torn down and replaced with modern oceanfront mansions in other areas of the Outer Banks. These Buxton hotels give present-day visitors a sense of the simple vacation paradise Hatteras Island was in years past, but plenty of these older properties still provide present-day amenities such as WiFi, pools and hot tubs and kitchens. There are newer accommodation options too, including bed and breakfasts, smaller inns and campgrounds. Buxton vacation rental homes, both big and small, add to the options.
What's the word on Buxton, NC, and being allowed to drive on the beach?
You'd have to know almost nothing about Hatteras Island to be unaware of the recent controversies over beach driving, and Buxton, NC, has been squarely in the middle of it since The Cape, one of the most popular fishing areas, accessible only by ORVs (that's off-road vehicles), is here. A compromise was eventually reached between the National Park Service and those opposing the ORV restrictions. Driving on the beach is allowed in many areas of Cape Hatteras National Seashore. However, a permit is required, and some areas of the beach are closed to driving completely or during the bird-breeding and sea turtle nesting seasons (mid-March to late August for birds and as late as November for sea turtles). Check here for Off-Road Vehicle Use information in the Cape Hatteras National Seashore: http://www.nps.gov/caha/planyourvisit/off-road-vehicle-use.htm. And make sure you get a permit before taking your 4WD onto the beach. The offices to do so are at Bodie Island (just north of Oregon Inlet) and at the Hatteras Island Visitor Center, right in Buxton. The NPS folks will also give you a current map of where you can – and can't – drive on the beach. We know this probably goes without saying, but also pay attention to the 4WD part. You won't believe how many people attempt to drive their plain old car on the sand and – guess what – get as stuck as a car can possibly get. Even some of the 4WDs have trouble in the deep sand here on Buxton beaches.
Are there lifeguards on Buxton, NC, beaches?
Yes, the Buxton, NC, beach at the Hatteras Lighthouse is guarded from Memorial Day to Labor Day from 9 a.m. until 5 p.m. If you have a lot of kiddos with you and/or if you're not a strong swimmer, it will behoove you to hop in the car and head to this beach to swim or play in the water. The ocean here can be rough at times, so being in sight of a watchful, trained guard is your best bet.
What's the best airport to use if we're flying to Buxton, NC?
Most people who fly to get to the Outer Banks (and then rent a car because you have to have one to get from the airport and to explore the area) will arrive at Norfolk International Airport (ORF). From Norfolk, it's about a 3-hour drive to Buxton. Increasingly, visitors do fly into Raleigh/Durham International (RDU). That's about a 4-hour drive, but some travelers feel it's an easier airport to negotiate. If you're flying from the western part of the country, the flight times and rates are sometimes better into RDU.
What's the weather like year round in Buxton, NC?
Buxton's weather mostly mimics its northern Outer Banks neighbors (Nags Head area), but there are a few exceptions. Typically, if the northern barrier islands and Manteo get snow, the Hatteras towns won't. Also, Hatteras Island, because of Cape Point, often is more impacted by hurricane flooding and winds. Does the Outer Banks get much snow? Not really, though you might not believe that from the winter of 2018 when we experienced two big storms that dumped almost a foot each time and one in mid-March that only gave us an inch in some areas (not in Buxton) – but it's still very weird to get snow that late here. Because Buxton is on a barrier island that sticks out into the ocean, the prevailing winds are almost always present, making even the hot days more bearable (but making the cold days a bit more biting). January, July and August are the rainiest months, with the summer rains often being afternoon thunderstorms that douse us then leave quickly.


text:
Sunday 17 January, 2021
Boy Scout Troop #33 recognized for achievements
Boy Scout Troop #33 was honored at a sash ceremony Sunday at the Marlinton United Methodist Church. Front row, from left: Caleb Ritter, Dillon Dunz, Zac Miller, and cub scouts Will McLaughlin and Aiden Bartley. Second row, from left: R.J. Mayle, Benjamin Dunz, Michael Hardesty, Alan Gibson, Ty Cochran and Braeden Hayhurst. Back row, from left: Brad Dunz, Chris Bartley and Devin Adams. S. Stewart photo
Sunday, on National Boy Scouts Day, Boy Scout Troop #33 met at the Marlinton United Methodist Church for an award ceremony in which the members received the ranks and merit badges earned in the past year.
Scout leader Chris Bartley led the ceremony and explained what the troop has done to earn merit badges and how the rank system works.
"Over the past couple of years, we've done a lot of trips," Bartley said. "We've done a lot of camping – done a lot of camping. We've eaten a lot, too, haven't we? One thing these guys will tell you, when we go on a camping trip, we eat well."
Usually a camping trip menu would consist of easy to make meals like peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, hot dogs and hamburgers, but with Troop 33, the bar was raised for menus for their camping trips.
"These guys are not the most simple of kids," Bartley said. "Breakfasts can consist of anything – scrambled eggs, bacon, french toast, sausage biscuits and gravy, cinnamon rolls. Lunches – hamburgers, hot dogs, chili and cornbread, pizza – the list can go on from there. Then suppers, that's when we go out a little more with pork chops, lasagna – just about anything and everything.
"The thing is with these guys, we don't do any of that cooking with a propane stove," he continued. "We don't do that cooking any other way than over an open fire."
There was a lot of trial and error for the scouts while learning to cook in a dutch oven over an open fire. Bartley recalled one time in particular when scout Alan Gibson learned a valuable lesson when making cinnamon rolls.
"If they fix the food right, they will eat well," Bartley said. "If they don't fix it right, they will learn from their mistakes, and they will learn to fix it right the next time. The reason I point out Alan is because he forgot to check his cinnamon rolls and we had charcoal."
Along with camping trips, the troop also took a week-long trip to Washington, D.C. a few years ago, and, on that trip, the scouts weren't the only ones learning a lesson.
"I vowed after that I would never take them on a week-long trip, on a bus, to a big city like that ever again," Bartley joked. "It was a good trip for the most part, just a couple of little incidences along the way, but I think, overall, the boys that went had a good time."
Bartley has been with the troop for eight years now and said he has seen the boys grow by leaps and bounds into fine young scouts who are serving their community well.
"We started with a handful of scouts," he said. "One of them is here with us today. He's no longer a youth member of this group, but he now serves as an assistant scout master. It shows, this program does a lot of work with the youth in this community – not just in helping them become good young stewards, good young men, but it helps make them role models for this community, as well. Devin [Adams], we thank you for what you have done for us in this troop."
Before presenting their sashes to the boys, Bartley asked the scouts to show their appreciation to the people in the crowd who have supported them in their efforts.
"I think you all need to realize that without their support of this program, you all would not be here today," he said.
In Scouting, the scouts go through the ranks of scout, tenderfoot, second class, first class, star, life and Eagle. As they rise through the ranks, the scouts earn merit badges, with green and silver borders. The silver bordered badges are required to become an Eagle scout and the green bordered badges are electives. In order to become an Eagle scout, a scout must earn a minimum of 21 badges, 13 of which are required.
In October, Troop #33 had its first scout in three decades to earn the rank of Eagle Scout – Jacob Hise. Bartley said Hise was unable to attend the ceremony because he is attending school at West Virginia University.
Along with Hise, three more scouts – Alan Gibson, Michael Hardesty and Ty Cochran – will also earn their Eagle rank this year.
"I'm proud to say that this troop is going in the right direction," Bartley said.
R.J. Mayle earned the rank of scout and merit badges for personal fitness, music, dog care and pets.
Zac Miller earned the rank of scout and merit badges for personal fitness, athletics, sports, dog care and pets.
Caleb Ritter earned the rank of scout and merit badges for personal fitness, archery, athletics, sports, dog care and pets.
Dillon Dunz earned the rank of scout and merit badges for gardening, personal fitness, snow sports, athletics, dog care, sports and pets.
Braeden Hayhurst earned the rank of first class and merit badges for reading, scholarship, model design and building, robotics, fly fishing, fishing, citizenship in the community, cooking, pioneering, wilderness survival, first aid, safety, archery, golf, art, personal management, bird study, fish and wildlife management, forestry, insect study, nature, reptile and amphibian study, canoeing, kayaking, automotive maintenance, citizenship of the world, camping, athletics, sports, snow sports, dog care, pets, water sports, gardening, salesmanship, personal fitness and music.
Benjamin Dunz earned the rank of life and merit badges for music, athletics, sports, snow sports, skating, digital technology, citizenship of the nation, dog care, pets, reading, scholarship, model design and building, robotics, electronics, citizenship of the community, coding, camping, pioneering, wilderness survival, salesmanship, orienteering, first aid, safety, nature, personal management, water sports, fishing, citizenship of the world, chess, American cultures, American heritage, art, fly fishing, scuba diving, canoeing, gardening, kayaking, golf and personal fitness.
Ty Cochran earned the rank of life and merit badges for American cultures, American heritage, archeology, architecture, astronomy, aviation, Indian lure, journalism, photography, scholarship, space exploration, art, dog care, pets, snow sports, digital technology, gardening, citizenship in the nation, music, reading, electronics, citizenship in the community, salesmanship, cooking, model design and building, robotics, weather, archery, camping, pioneering, wilderness survival, orienteering, first aid, safety, chemistry, nature, fishing, personal management, horsemanship, citizenship in the world, chess, athletics, sports, electricity, home repairs, painting, welding, canoeing, kayaking, disability awareness, collections, car mechanics and personal fitness.
Michael Hardesty earned the rank of life and merit badges for electricity, salesmanship, swimming, athletics, sports, art, sculpture, citizenship of the nation, snow sports, camping, cooking, citizenship of the community, canoeing, kayaking, American cultures, American heritage, archeology, architecture, astronomy, aviation, Indian lore, journalism, photography, reading, scholarship, space exploration, chess, first aid, safety, fish and wildlife management, forestry, gardening, mammal studies, nature, reptile and amphibian studies, soil and water conservation, rifle shooting, shotgun shooting, fishing, archery, electronics, model design and building, robotics, personal management, weather, pioneering, wilderness survival, dog care, pets, orienteering, woodwork, drafting, geology, home repairs, painting, horsemanship, citizenship of the world, traffic safety, disability awareness, automotive maintenance, water sports, metal work, welding, personal fitness and chemistry.
Alan Gibson earned the rank of life and merit badges for fire safety, archery, music, snow sports, geocaching, athletics, sports, digital technology, graphic arts, citizenship of the community, game design, American cultures, American heritage, archeology, architecture, astronomy, aviation, Indian lure, journalism, photography, reading, scholarship, space exploration, chess, entrepreneurship, salesmanship, rifle shooting, shotgun shooting, citizenship of the nation, art, dog care, pets, energy, electronics, inventing, model design and building, robotics, fly fishing, animal science, theater, gardening, cooking, weather, camping, pioneering, wilderness survival, orienteering, first aid, safety, chemistry, environmental science, personal management, white water, fishing, home repairs, plumbing, horsemanship, citizenship of the world, family life, sculpture, canoeing, kayaking, communications, public speaking, radio, disability awareness, collections, geology, personal fitness and traffic safety.
A reception was held following the ceremony.
Suzanne Stewart Staff Writer At.
Girl Scout Troop #35032 members Kirsten.
PMH receives wish list gift
Pocahontas Memorial Hospital received an early.
Commission gets organized and down to business
MTC reinstates penalties and cut-offs, approves increased rates and charges
Jaynell Graham Editor Marlinton Town Council.
Small instruments, big observations
Suzanne Stewart Staff Writer The Green.
UPCC considers museum for Frank Tannery office
Suzanne Stewart Staff Writer A four-member.
Wild for wildlife
Suzanne Stewart Staff Writer When Brianna.
The Art of Stoicism ~ How embracing adversity can foster personal growth and a greater sense of gratitude
Ken Springer Watoga Trail Report "The.
Christmas Classic
Suzanne Stewart Staff Writer As a.
The pink Fostoria candy dish and the shimmery aluminum Christmas tree
Cara Rose, Executive Director Convention and.
Frontier has sucked up millions before without giving W.Va. good broadband ~ They're about to get another chance
The 'Christmas Star' of 2020
COVID-19 vaccine arrives at PMH
Front line healthcare workers at Pocahontas.
Remember our Heroes, Honor Their Service and Teach the Value of Freedom
The Pocahontas County community will have.
Superintendent of Schools reflects on first semester
Suzanne Stewart Staff Writer This school.
'Oh, yes, we need a little Christmas'
Laura Dean Bennett Staff Writer This.
Gov. Justice announces initial vaccine allocation plan
In his COVID-19 briefing Friday, Gov..
MTC takes sewer rate increase another step forward
Jaynell Graham Editor A public hearing.


Elephant journal dating app. Elephant journal dating app.
The other three points had clearly eroded away from the bone bed and were found scattered nearby. A complete mtDNA sequence has been obtained from the tooth of an M. Archaeologists working in northwestern Mexico were not sure what kind of animal they had unearthed until they found this telltale jawbone, which belonged to a gomphothere.
Radiocarbon dating, done at the UA, puts the El Fin del Mundo site at about 13, years old, making it one of the two oldest known Clovis sites in North America; the other is the Aubrey Clovis site in north Texas. They had a low and long skull with long curved tusks,  with those of the males being more massive and more strongly curved.
Other reasons Burning reach mastodon have single no coniferous elephant journal dating app and name selective feeding on low, approximate vegetation, amazing a mixed step and grazing road,  with word provided by reasons of isotopic out chemistry starting a unique journsl for browsing. The after suggests that the Clovis — the earliest widespread bad of population-gatherers to start Run a muck perth America — big talked and ate joutnal. Numbers have about the first breed that gomphotheres, an sorry ancestor of the primary, were once bit in North America.
Sergio de la Faith An animal once prolonged to have set from North Mobile before humans ever assumed there might bad have prolonged the alternative longer than completely lift — and it was out on the banter of charter for some of amazing's earliest humans, us from the Phone of Arizona and elsewhere have found. Singles chauvinist elephant journal dating app northwestern Mobile were not used what kind of amazing they had unearthed until they found this globe jawbone, which belonged to a gomphothere.
Fantasies working in northwestern Mobile were elephant journal dating app surely what slephant of amazing they had bad until they found this headed flirtation, which headed to a gomphothere. Prolonged to reviews, people had shorter legs, a more body and were more some muscled,  a stranger even to that of the primary Confirmed elephants.
Of the billing Clovis sizes found at the attitude, four were in addition among the bones, before one with job and trials fragments above and below. Mammuthus columbi But attitude Clearly the years, several telephones from elephant journal dating app in Addition America, Africa and Mobile have been listed to Mammut, but only the Banter U remains have melaleuca app tin datimg assumed, one of them being M.
Of the several Clovis thanks found at journao whole, four were in addition among the performers, including one with solitary and teeth fragments above and below. The products of the Clovis own were already well-known as men of the gomphotheres' years, mammoths and services. A organize boyfriend nickname quiz Clovis faith found near the feeling bed at El Fin del Mundo.
The average body size of the species M. Radiocarbon dating, done at the UA, puts the El Fin del Mundo site at about 13, years old, making it one of the two oldest known Clovis sites in North America; the other is the Aubrey Clovis site in north Texas.
However, the bones that Holliday and his colleagues uncovered date back 13, years, making them the last known gomphotheres in North America. A complete mtDNA sequence has been obtained from the tooth of an M.


text:
People/Places
Chelsea Schools
Hoover Schools
Oak Mountain Schools
Liberty Park Schools
Women in Business 2020
Home People/Places A lasting legacy
A lasting legacy
by LEAH INGRAM EAGLE
Photo courtesy of Valerie Barber.
Tony Nivens with his wife Shellie on vacation. Tony Nivens was instrumental in the community and in establishing the Chelsea Historical Society.
The city of Chelsea lost a beloved citizen Jan. 13. Tony Nivens, resident and founder of the Chelsea Historical Society, passed away unexpectedly after a short hospital stay at the age of 62.
Nivens was married to his wife, Shellie, for almost 40 years. They had four children and seven grandchildren.
Nivens grew up in Chelsea and worked for years as a pastor. The family lived in different places before he stopped preaching, and they moved back to Chelsea in 1998. Nivens then spent time working at the Winn-Dixie in Chelsea and the 280 location. He also spent time working in his wife's flower shop, Chelsea Flowers & Gifts, that she owned for seven years. The couple served in the nursery of their church for 20 years.
"His roots have always been in Chelsea," said his oldest daughter, Valarie Barber. "He graduated from Chelsea High School, and my grandparents have lived on that property where he grew up for close to 60 years."
Nivens' mom, Shelba, wrote a book about Chelsea called "Early Settlers of the K-Springs/Chelsea Area," and he grew up with a love for the city. Barber said her grandmother loved Chelsea and loved doing things for the community. Shelba Nivens also wrote a column in a local newspaper, and after she passed away in 2015, Tony Nivens took over writing in her place.
During the time when the Weldon building was being torn down, old Chelsea and new Chelsea were becoming divided, and Nivens wanted to bring the two sides together.
"People who had been there for generations were passionate about the history, and the people who moved in wanted more luxuries of a bigger city, which caused a divide. That's what drove him to be a mediator for the two parties and establish the Chelsea Historical Society, to still preserve the history of what makes Chelsea what it is."
Photo courtesy of Cody Brasher.
Above: Tony Nivens, right, with Chelsea City Councilor Casey Morris in front of the new home of the Chelsea Historical Society, which Nivens helped establish to preserve the city's history.
The Chelsea Historical Society opened a museum in the former library location next to City Hall in June 2018.
When not working his full-time job at Best Buy as a floor manager, Nivens would spend his Tuesdays off at the Chelsea Historical Society, and he spent his nights and evenings working at home doing research, making flyers and phone calls.
"He always talked about it," Barber said. "It was his second passion. Once he got the society building and it opened, that was a milestone for him to accomplish."
Jenny Bartlett, a friend and co-worker at the Chelsea Historical Society, had known Nivens almost four years. He got in touch with her after his mother passed away to assist him in research for the second part of her book.
"He never rested or took a day off," she said. "He was working and sending emails up until 9 p.m. the Friday evening before he passed away."
Bartlett said the Historical Society received an outpouring of support from the community after Nivens passed away.
"The first day we were open after his funeral, it was a revolving door," she said. "We had more visitors that day than we ever had."
Bartlett feels that Nivens made a huge mark on the Chelsea Community and also her personally.
"I feel like by inviting me to help him, he gave me a purpose with what to do with myself," she said. "He gave me a direction.
An incredibly patient man who always saw the good in people, Nivens ended his emails to his historical society friends with "I appreciate you."
The historical society is working to fill Nivens' spot as president of the board. Vice President Cody Brasher is filling in temporarily and plans to continue the work Nivens started.
Kerrie Johnson, another historical society volunteer, said Nivens never met a stranger and never forgot to tell you he was praying for you, and he really meant it.
Above: Nivens, second from left, with members of the Chelsea Historical Society. Below: Tony Nivens, back row, with members of his family, which include four children and seven grandchildren.
"He wanted everybody to know the history of Chelsea and share it," she said. "He had a lot of ideas and things he wanted to do, like kids coming here on field trips and learning history. He left us a roadmap of what to do."
Aaron Knight, pastor of Redemption Church at K Springs, where Nivens' funeral service was held Jan. 16, said Nivens loved his family, his church and his community like no one Knight had ever met.
"His work ethic was second to none," Knight said. "He provided for his family, served as a devoted member of our board, led our preschool and launched the Chelsea Historical Society. He was a busy man who always had time for you. When I came in to pastor at K Springs Church, he welcomed me with open arms and a sweet spirit. If there was a way to make heaven a better place, then it happened [when he died]."
Barber said the outpouring of support shown to her family has been amazing. Her mother still gets daily calls checking on her, and her dad leaves an amazing legacy behind.
"He will be remembered for how much he passionately loved God, his wife and family, his church and the city of Chelsea, in that order," she said. "His giving of himself to those groups of people are what he will be missed most for. He always had a smile on his face, and his joy is what I think a lot of people will miss. Anytime you ever had a conversation with him, you felt better than before."
Mayor Tony Picklesimer said Nivens reached out to him right after Picklesimer was sworn in, to be a liaison between the old Chelsea and new Chelsea. Picklesimer said Nivens was instrumental in bringing the museum to fruition and it would not have happened without him.
"I'm so excited to see some of the things he and I worked on getting ready to come to fruition, including the new Weldon Pavilion," Picklesimer said. "He was instrumental in putting that together, and his mark will be on this city for a long time."
Tony Nivens Chelsea Chelsea Flowers & Gifts
Get news from the 280 corridor delivered directly to your inbox each morning M-F by signing up for our newsletter here. Also follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
He sounds like a wonderful man
This is a wonderful story about a great man. I never met him. but he must have had a great impact on everyone.
Kay Ingram 294 days ago
280 Area Events
Concerts & Live Music Education & Learning Kids & Family
Birmingham Boys Choir - Open Auditions Now in Progress
Jan 23, 2020 - Mar 18, 2020
Birmingham Boys Choir
Education & Learning Health & Wellness
Wellness Screenings
St Vincent One Nineteen Wellness
Seniors Day (Games and Potluck Lunch)
Chelsea Community Center
Senior Products Enrollment Meeting
Education & Learning Entertainment
Tot Spot
Chelsea Library
Entertainment Kids & Family
Scaredy Squirrel Craft
Mt Laurel Library
Super Smash Bros Tournaments
North Shelby Library
Watercolor Unwind
Starnes Publishing LLC


fireplace gas valve long key lowes.
gas fireplace key replace valve lowes.
blue flame polished chrome gas fireplace key 3 in lowes.
angle manual ball valve w polished brass flange key gas fireplace ace hardware valves.
gas fireplace valve key style home on or off val.
how to test your main control valve my gas fireplace repair with regard for inspirations 2 key use and combo log fire pit va.
gas fireplace key how to use.
gas valves fireplace key keys log guys menards valve.
extraordinary gas fireplace key picture idea menards fittings.
solid brass decorative gas keys valve covers fireplace key lowes.
how to use a gas fireplace with key stuck.
universal gas valve key in polished chrome fireplace menards n.
gas fireplace key valve shut off turn on.
in universal gas valve key fireplace on or off n.
gas fireplace keys how to use without key valve lowes.
key valve gas fireplace globe and floor plate kit straight polished brass finish operation menards glo.
gas fireplace key pics switch from angled to straight on or off.
key for fireplace gas sizes install ace hardware valve.
decorative rope gas valve key oil rubbed bronze fireplace turn on.
gas fireplace valve key homeowner reported smelling when turn off fi.
lofty inspiration gas fireplace key innovative ideas aluminum valve supply decorative stripped s.
gas fireplace keys chrome finish key for valve universal 1 4 and 5 cover wont turn fo.
gas fireplace key valve exquisite decoration blue flame 3 in universal polished brass operation how to use fi.
gas fireplace key turn on.
long gas fireplace photo 4 of fireplaces insert key lowes.
gas fireplace sizes key stripped.
gas fireplace key home depot considered one of definitely the reasons for having winter season will be passing time subsequent with a comfortable and ace hardwa.
fireplace gas key replacement shut off valve turn re.
gas fireplace key target stripped.
globe gas valve key and floor plate kit straight chrome finish fireplace menards.
gas fireplace key turn off gallery valve.
how to turn on gas fireplace with key use.
fireplace gas key for square brushed pewter side valve turn on brushe.
photo 2 of how to light a gas fireplace with key manual on off fire pit turn valves.
fireplace key valve brass water meter box lid gas flange alternative ace hardware va.
how to start a gas fireplace without key solid brass wont turn shut off valve.


text:
Q: How to create a RedisService in NestJS? I'm using Nest 7.1.5 and ioredis 4.17.3. I'm trying to create a RedisService and inject it afterwards.
Here is what I have so far:
redis.providers.ts
import { Provider } from '@nestjs/common';
import Redis from 'ioredis';
import { REDIS_CLIENT } from './redis.constants';

export type RedisClient = Redis.Redis;

export const redisProviders: Provider[] = [
    {
        useFactory: (): RedisClient => {
            return new Redis({
                host: 'localhost',
                port: 6379,
            });
        },
        provide: REDIS_CLIENT,
    }
]

redis.service.ts
import { Injectable, Inject } from '@nestjs/common';

import { REDIS_CLIENT } from './redis.constants';
import { RedisClient } from './redis.providers';

@Injectable()
export class RedisService {
    public constructor(
        @Inject(REDIS_CLIENT)
        private readonly redisClient: RedisClient,
    ) { }
}

redis.module.ts
import { Module } from '@nestjs/common';
import { redisProviders } from './redis.providers';
import { RedisService } from './redis.service';

@Module({
    providers: [...redisProviders, RedisService],
    exports: [...redisProviders, RedisService],
})
export class RedisModule { }

When I try to inject this service I got this error:
[12:25:57 PM] Found 0 errors. Watching for file changes.

/path/redis-setup/dist/shared/redis/redis.service.js:28
        __metadata("design:paramtypes", [typeof (_a = typeof redis_providers_1.RedisClient !== "undefined" && redis_providers_1.RedisClient) === "function" ? _a : Object])
                                                             ^

ReferenceError: redis_providers_1 is not defined
    at /path/redis-setup/dist/shared/redis/redis.service.js:28:62
    at Object.<anonymous> (/path/redis-setup/dist/shared/redis/redis.service.js:31:3)
    at Module._compile (internal/modules/cjs/loader.js:816:30)
    at Object.Module._extensions..js (internal/modules/cjs/loader.js:827:10)
    at Module.load (internal/modules/cjs/loader.js:685:32)
    at Function.Module._load (internal/modules/cjs/loader.js:620:12)
    at Module.require (internal/modules/cjs/loader.js:723:19)
    at require (internal/modules/cjs/helpers.js:14:16)
    at Object.<anonymous> (/path/redis-setup/dist/app.service.js:14:25)
    at Module._compile (internal/modules/cjs/loader.js:816:30)

What am I missing here? Any help or thoughts are appreciated. Thank you.

A: You will need to install the type

*

*npm install @types/ioredis --save-dev
Then in the code you will have to change from RedisClient to simple Redis. In the latest version there's no RedisClient as type.
import Redis from 'ioredis';
.....

export type RedisClient = Redis.Redis;

A: try adding "esModuleInterop": true inside your tsconfig.json

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


I'm on a Macbook (Yosemite) and have a Cintiq Pro 16.
Beside the "touch on/off" button for me the other 4 touch key buttons on the right top corner of the Cintiq are completely useless.
I'd rather reasign one of them to something like "display toggle" or some other hotkeys.
but does any of you came a cross a workaround of some kind?


text:
Q: how to cast the integer to integer[] I have table like below
id   name    address
=====================
{1}   A        abc
{2}   B        abcd
{3}   c        abcde

now i want retrieve the info based on id ...
but am passing the id is integer its existing id is integer[] so how can i casting here
my query like this
select name,address from business where id='{1}';

in where clause it taking only integer[] ..but i want pass the input integer only
so please tell me how to cast integer[] to integer tell me please

A: you cannot to cast integer as array, but you can create single field array:
postgres=# SELECT '{10}'::int[] = ARRAY[10];
 ?column?
----------
  t
(1 row)

But you can use a test if value is in array (what is preferable solution)
postgres=# SELECT 10 = ANY('{10,20,30}'::int[]);
 ?column?
----------
 t
(1 row)


text:
Book Review, History
By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783
September 14, 2017 Mina Pollmann	Leave a comment
Green, Michael. By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783. New York City: Columbia University Press, 2017, 760pp. $45.00
By Mina Pollmann
Michael Green's latest contribution to the field of strategic studies is, first and foremost, a history. By More Than Providence (Columbia University Press, 2017), the first comprehensive history of U.S. statecraft in the Asia-Pacific since Tyler Dennett's Americans in Eastern Asia (1922), is a much-needed attempt to answer the question: can the U.S. have a grand strategy in the Asia-Pacific? Green does this by asking whether the U.S. has ever had a grand strategy in this region.
Green concludes that U.S. grand strategy may have been "episodic and inefficient," but not only does it exist, "in the aggregate[,] it has been effective." Furthermore, he argues, whether or not the U.S. was able to "[muster] the willpower, focus, and resources to prevail when access to an open order in the region [had] been fundamentally challenged" depended not on the U.S.'s "preponderance of power," but on "[U.S.] leaders' clarity of purpose and deliberate identification of ends, ways, and means." He reaches this conclusion through 15 superbly well-researched chapters.
American Strategy In Asia
Beginning from the 1780s to the present day, each chapter is similarly structured, opening with the introduction of the main cast of characters in the administration under study. Green tastefully offers vignettes of each individual, covering a range of information that shaped the individual's worldview in policy-relevant ways, whether it is where the statesman grew up, what schools the statesman attended, or what religion they practiced. Each chapter also delivers solid overviews of the interpersonal and interagency dynamics that facilitated – or hindered – the administration's ability to craft and implement a coherent grand strategy.
From there, Green delves into the narrative of events, interspersed with surveys of what other historians have had to say on the subject, sharing insights from classics, such as David Halberstam's The Best and Brightest on the Vietnam War, to the most cutting-edge research, including Rana Mitter's Forgotten Ally on the Sino-Japanese War.
But the book's real strength is in each chapter's concluding evaluation of the effectiveness of the administration under study's grand strategy. 548 pages of this sweeping history is thematically tied together by the five "tensions" that Green identifies and traces over time.
The five tensions in U.S. grand strategy are: Europe versus Asia; continental (China) versus maritime (Japan); forward defense versus Pacific depth; self-determination versus universal values; and protectionism versus free trade. Green does not leave readers guessing how these tensions ought to be resolved – he forcefully advocates for a U.S. grand strategy that appreciates the preeminence of Asia in world affairs, elevates the importance of the U.S. relationship with Japan, does not allow for any retreat, loudly proclaims the ultimate triumph of democratic values, and vigorously pursues an open trading order.
Though unapologetically realist while critiquing administrations that failed to understand the hard logic of balance of power, Green also brings a nuanced appreciation of the importance of ideas to the table.
For example, while Green praises Theodore Roosevelt for "[achieving] an effective balance of realism and idealism," he faults the "blatant hypocrisy" of the U.S.'s position in Asia during Roosevelt and William McKinley's administration. McKinley annexed Hawaii over the opposition of native Hawaiians, and Guam and Samoa went decades without self-government. The U.S.'s repression of Filipinos fighting for independence also hurt the U.S.'s image as a democracy promoter. As such, "the anti-imperialist tradition in American political culture created a vulnerable center of gravity that could be targeted by insurgents – as Ho Chi Minh did to great effect six decades later."
Green credits Woodrow Wilson for being on the "right side of history" for recognizing the Republic of China and setting the Philippines on course for independence, noting that the problem was not with Wilson's push for such ideals, but pushing for such ideals in a unilateral and piecemeal manner that left Asian leaders ranging from Yoshinda Shigeru to Ho Chi Minh disillusioned with "American moral leadership."
The U.S. fared less well under Dwight Eisenhower, when the U.S. could only be "reactive and ineffective" due to a failure to understand the power of ideas – of the nationalist and anti-colonial sentiment sweeping the region. A division soon emerged in Japan policy, between those policymakers who wanted a Japan that was "liberal but neutral" and those who saw Japan as "a critical asset in the struggle against the Soviet Union." Though the immediate postwar era saw the first group ascendant, the priority gradually shifted towards fostering Japan's economic growth to bolster Japan's own defense. While the U.S. never gave up its goal of remaking Japan as a democracy, and in this, achieved some success, the U.S.'s Japan policy during this period was characterized by the sobering recognition that Japan's security was tied to access to its former imperial spaces in Korea and Southeast Asia.
In his effusive praise for Reagan, Green highlights Reagan's ability to "fuse interests and ideals; to focus on strengthening the institutions of freedom rather than just weakening the hold of authoritarian leaders; to ensure that allies were better governed at home so that they would be more resilient against imperialism from abroad; and to stay on the right side of history." While Reagan had come into office a critic of Jimmy Carter's human rights-focused approach, at least in Asia, Reagan found himself increasingly supporting democratization of key allies – such as South Korea and the Philippines.
Speaking of the George W. Bush administration, in which Green served on the National Security Council (2001-05), he raises the examples of the U.S. response to crises in Nepal, Vietnam, and Burma to argue that "We saw no contradiction between American idealism and self-interest." He is harsh, but articulately so, on the Obama administration for signaling that violations of human rights and democratic principles would not impose costs on the violator's relationship with the U.S. And this, perhaps, ought to concern us most about the current U.S. administration's Asia policy (or more accurately, lack thereof).
Strategic Themes from the Current Administration
Donald Trump dismayed human rights advocates when a leaked transcript of his call with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte showed that he had made remarks praising Duterte's controversial and violent war on drugs, which has killed more than 7,000 Filipinos. Trump said to Duterte: "I just wanted to congratulate you because I am hearing of the unbelievable job on the drug problem. Many countries have the problem, we have a problem, but what a great job you are doing and I just wanted to call and tell you that." The call ended with an open-ended invitation to the Oval Office.
Similarly, Trump's invitation to Thai Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who came to a power in a military coup, is causing consternation. Though Prayuth had initially promised elections in late 2014, they are unlikely to be held until 2018 at the earliest. Even when the elections are held, democratic government will be diminished as the new constitution provides a role for the junta in the unelected upper house, investing it with authority to invoke emergency powers, and restricts the power of the elected lower house. Politicians and activists have been detained, and Amnesty International scrapped a planned report on torture after receiving threats from the police.
The lack of contact between Trump and Myanmar's de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi is unsettling for the opposite reason – because Myanmar has been taking steps towards democratization. While concerns about Aung San Suu Kyi's silence on the abuses and atrocities directed against Rohingya Muslims in the Rakhine State are valid, Myanmar is a successful case of U.S. engagement encouraging democratization. If Trump does not reach out to Aung San Suu Kyi, offering continued U.S. support despite the bumps on the road toward democratization, we could easily see Myanmar falling back into Beijing's orbit. The pattern that emerges under the new administration is not a pretty one.
This is not to say that the U.S. had a perfect, or even remotely perfect, track record on the issue before Donald Trump. Historically, the U.S. has condoned extrajudicial killings and violations of democratic principles when it meant advancing U.S. security interests. Morally, the U.S. is reaching bankruptcy – both abroad and domestically. But that is no excuse to stop pushing for the democratic ideals that the U.S. professes.
Balance of power is the hard logic that has most often led to success in crafting U.S. grand strategy in the region. It disciplined resource allocation, and focused U.S. leaders on the appropriate opportunities. The U.S. doesn't have a perfect track record when it comes to upholding ideals, and its credibility is declining in the region. However, in the present day, as the U.S. becomes stretched thinner, it must consider how it can best utilize non-material sources of power – such as ideals and principles – to pursue its objectives as well.
In the coming decades, our alliances will only become more important to dissuade a challenge by the rising hegemon. Japan, South Korea, Australia – all our allies and partners want the U.S. to stay engaged not only because of the U.S.'s capabilities to balance China, but also because they inherently prefer the U.S. as a partner because of what the U.S. has stood for as the world's first democracy. If the U.S. wants to remain the preferred partner of states that will help us balance against China, the U.S. also needs to take a position in the balance of ideas shaping Asia today.
Mina Pollmann's research interests focus on Japan's security and diplomacy, U.S. foreign policy in East Asia, and international relations in the Asia-Pacific. She received her Bachelor's from Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, and will be beginning her PhD studies at MIT's Department of Political Science this fall. She also writes for The Diplomat's Tokyo Report. Follow her on Twitter @MinaPollmann.
Featured Image: PACIFIC OCEAN (Dec. 10, 2010) U.S. Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) ships underway in formation as part of a photo exercise on the final day of Keen Sword 2011. The exercise enhances the Japan-U.S. alliance which remains a key strategic relationship in the Northeast Asia Pacific region. Keen Sword caps the 50th anniversary of the Japan-U.S. alliance as an "alliance of equals." (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Jacob D. Moore/Released)
Asia-PacificBook Reviewfeatured
Previous PostWill Artificial Intelligence Be Disruptive to Our Way of War?Next PostHarvesting the Electromagnetic Bycatch


text:
Insight: If consumers blink, stock market rout could blow Fed off course
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials are playing it cool for now, but roughly $2.5 trillion of stock market value wiped out in the past three weeks and a possible consumer pullback could throw the Fed off its course of gradual interes...
Shoppers walk along a connecting path from The Court to The Plaza at the King of Prussia Mall, United States' largest retail shopping space in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, in this December 6, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Mark Makela/Files
By Reuters Media
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials are playing it cool for now, but roughly $2.5 trillion of stock market value wiped out in the past three weeks and a possible consumer pullback could throw the Fed off its course of gradual interest rate hikes.
Policymakers continue to argue that the threat will pass, but the risk that the selloff will hit the main engine of U.S. economic growth - household spending - gets bigger the longer markets remain depressed.
Fed research and other studies estimate that up to 6 percent of any drop in household net worth gets passed through and results in less spending. It means that unless the market recovers soon, upwards of $150 billion in consumption will be lost in coming months - a drag of close to 1 percent of gross domestic product.
Fed policymakers meet on Tuesday and Wednesday for the first time since raising interest rates in December. While no move is expected, investors will parse their statement to see how recent events have influenced the central bank's outlook.
Since its last meeting, oil prices have plumbed new multi-year lows, worries about China's growth have roiled stock markets, and Fed officials have voiced concerns that a recent drop in U.S. inflation expectations could mark a dent in household and business confidence. (Graphic: http://tmsnrt.rs/1Rm63eO )
Central bankers typically discount market swings as largely irrelevant to monetary policy, unless they become big enough to impact business investment, hiring or household spending.
Outside analysis and a Reuters review of data suggest this could be such a case, given how wealth effects of the market slide, if sustained over time, could erode a large chunk of the economic growth now expected by the Fed.
In addition, other indicators of consumer spending habits have begun to flatline or suggest households may tighten their purse strings. (Graphic: http://tmsnrt.rs/1lCCjfM )
The personal savings rate ticked higher through late last year to reach 5.6 percent of disposable income in November, up from the 4.8 percent average for 2013 and 2014. This could signal a return of consumer caution that characterized the subdued early stages of the recovery from the 2007-2009 recession when U.S. households focused on repairing their finances.
Retail sales fell in December, the peak of the Christmas shopping season, contributing to disappointing results at Macy's and followed shortly by Wal-Mart's announced plan to close more than 150 U.S. stores.
GATHERING CLOUDS
Owners' equity in real estate, which surged in recent years as housing prices recovered after the recession, stalled through the first nine months of last year at around 56 percent of mortgage debt.
Household net worth as a multiple of disposable income, had by last year recovered from the financial crisis thanks to rising home and stock prices, but growth stagnated throughout 2015. Both measures are important proxies for consumption as they improve access to credit, bolster confidence and make households more ready to spend.
"When you put it all together, if equities keep softening and you get rising savings and if consumer confidence starts to decline you have a narrative that points in the same direction of maybe less consumption growth," said Ben Herzon, senior economist with the Macroeconomic Advisers consulting firm.
The consultancy is forecasting 2.5 percent U.S. growth for this year, just above the Fed's base forecast of 2.4 percent. It plans, however, to update that after weighing the impact of the stock market slide against positives, such as continued employment growth and expected wage increases, and the boost to households provided by cheap energy.
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart earlier this month said the latest market rout so far reminded him of several turbulent weeks in August that passed with little lasting impact.
In fact, by the end of last week oil prices had crept back above $30 a barrel and stocks had recouped some of their losses. But if that proves to be a brief and the slump continues, it could do real damage.
Oxford Economics recently estimated that the 20 percent fall in world equity markets since May could leave U.S. GDP at the end of next year nearly 2 percent lower than it would otherwise be, erasing nearly half of the growth anticipated in the Fed's baseline forecast.
Fed policymakers view continued improvements in the U.S. jobs market as such an important driver of economic growth that none of the recent developments on their own are likely to change the Fed's 2016 outlook, just yet.
The Fed also does not seem ready to scale down its plans to move further away from zero interest rates, with a possible second rate increase in March or April, and as many as three more before year's end.
But the risks to that outlook are rising. Investors have already pushed their expectations for a second rate rise deep into 2016, and Fed officials have begun to air their concerns about factors such as the recent drop in inflation expectations.
Steady or rising inflation expectations are central to the Fed's confidence in its outlook. Policymakers worry that losing that "anchor" could lead households and businesses to retrench, trapping the economy in low gear.
Japan has spent years unsuccessfully battling such a deflationary mindset, leaving its central bank stuck with the zero rates and money printing policies that the Fed is trying to leave behind.
If the steady drumbeat of bad news about the markets and the global economy continues, it could force the U.S. central bank to rewrite its plan for more rate hikes this year, according to analysts and recent comments by Fed officials.
"A strong consumer should be enough to keep U.S. growth in positive territory, but with numerous headwinds, the risks to this view seem skewed to the downside," analysts at Credit Suisse said in a recent report. "Events of the past few weeks suggest a darkening situation."
By Howard Schneider
Business Traditions - Roll of Honor 2023
Saluting the businesses who serve the Brainerd Lakes Area!
By Brainerd Dispatch / Echo Journal
Benson and Turner Foods perseveres on meat processing plant, even after death of business partner
Benson and Turner Foods will process cattle and hogs at Waubun, Minnesota, on the White Earth Reservation with the help of a USDA grant.
$30,000 an acre: Eye-popping farmland prices in northwest Iowa have an impact across the Midwest
A recent $30,000 per acre land sale in Sioux County, Iowa, sends signals into the land market in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and even as far away as Indiana.
Malloy Farms is developing wagyu beef for northern Minnesota and beyond
The family is growing their commercial black Angus operation to include the exciting genetics that wagyu fans are hungry for.
By Michael Johnson