text:
Superbowl Tickets $1000 Less Than Last Year
Superbowl tickets on StubHub:
TAMPA, FL -- Sean Pate is with StubHub, an online ticket marketplace where people list tickets for sale. He says tickets for the Super Bowl are selling for about a thousand dollars less on average than they did a year ago.
"Last year, when it was the Giants versus the Patriots, tickets went for about $3,500. This year, however, with the recession and the opponents that are in the game, tickets have been going for about $2,400 on an average. That means on the low end you're finding tickets going for about $1,400 and they're going to be coming down even farther as the weekend goes on," said Pate.
Pate says there are more than 2,000 Super Bowl tickets for sale on StubHub's web site, so there's a lot of competition among sellers to get rid of those tickets by Sunday (see chart above, tickets start at $1545).
Trade Lessons of the 1930s Unheeded
WASHINGTON POST -- The stimulus bill passed by the House Wednesday contains a controversial provision that would mostly bar foreign steel and iron from the infrastructure projects laid out by the $819 billion economic package. A Senate version, yet to be acted upon, goes further, requiring, with few exceptions, that all stimulus-funded projects use only American-made equipment and goods.
Proponents of expanding the "Buy American" provisions enacted during the Great Depression, including steel and iron manufacturers and labor unions, argue that it is the only way to ensure that the stimulus creates jobs at home and not overseas. Opponents, including some of the biggest blue-chip names in American industry, say it amounts to a declaration of war against free trade. That, they say, could spark retaliation from abroad against U.S. companies and exacerbate the global financial crisis.
CATO INSTITUTE (Dan Ikenson) -- For all practical purposes there is no difference between the Smoot-Hawley tariff bill of 1930 and the "Buy American" provisions in the $819 billion spending bill that passed the House Wednesday.
Smoot-Hawley was the catalyst for a pandemic of tit-for-tat protectionism around the world, which helped deepen and prolong the global depression in the 1930s. "Buy American" provisions will no doubt inspire similar trade barriers abroad and will have the same effect of reducing global trade—and therefore prospects for economic recovery. It is not unreasonable to say that U.S. policymakers are on the verge of taking us down that same disastrous path.
HT: Paul Sebastian
Housing Market: 1981 vs. 2009
Have people forgotten how bad the real estate market crashed in the early 1980s? Apparently so. Here's a brief overview:
Mortgage rates (30-year fixed) peaked in October 1981 at 18.45%, see chart below:
What effect did historical high mortgage rates have on the housing market and housing affordability? The graph below (courtesy NY Times) tells the story: Housing Affordability dropped to an all-time low of around 62 in the early 1980s as mortgage rates soared to record-high levels.
Bottom Line: As bad as the troubles in today's real estate market are, they were certainly just as bad, if not worse back in the early 1980s. A Housing Affordability Index of 62 means that the typical American household in the early 1980s had only 62% of the income necessary to qualify for a mortgage to purchase the median-priced home. The record-high mortgage rates of 17-18% simply priced most Americans out of the housing market, and depressed home sales for years.
Between 1978 and 1981, existing-home sales fell by -50%, from 3.986 million homes in 1978 to 1.990 million homes by 1981 (data here), and new home sales and building permits fell by similar amounts. Unemployment rate for construction workers peaked at 22.6% in October 1982. Simply put, the housing market crashed under the weight of the 17-18% mortgage rates.
In contrast, mortgage rates are at record-low levels and housing affordability is at all-time historical high, factors that will hopefully provide a foundation for recovery in the real estate market and overall economy.
Cartoons of the Day: Pork Edition
The Case for Foreclosures: Foundation of Recovery
Preventing foreclosures has become a top priority of politicians, economists and regulators. In fact, allowing foreclosures to happen has merit as a free-market solution to the crisis.
If the intent is to help homeowners, then foreclosure is undoubtedly the best solution. Household balance sheets have been destroyed by taking on too much debt via the purchase of inflated assets. With so little savings, a household with negative equity almost implies negative net worth. Walking away from the mortgage immediately repairs the balance sheet.
Credit may be damaged, but homeowners can rebuild it. And by renting something they can afford, instead of the McMansion they cannot, homeowners are most likely to have some money left over each month that they can save toward a down payment on a house they can eventually afford. If the intent is to help the credit markets, then foreclosure is undoubtedly the best solution.
Foreclosures provide the foundation of recovery, both for Main Street and Wall Street. As properties are foreclosed, they can move from weak hands to strong hands. Households that have been foreclosed upon today are the buyers of tomorrow, when given a chance to recover.
~"Why Be a Nation of Mortgage Slaves?" in today's WSJ, Ramsey Su
GDP Is Down 1% — Not 3.8%
Cato's Alan Reynolds explains why here.
Interestingly, the OECD (and most European countries I think) does NOT annualize quarterly GDP growth rates, and reports only the quarterly, non-annualized rate. For example, the OECD reports here that US real GDP growth in QII 2008 at .70%, and not 2.8% (the way it gets reported here, annualized).
What Detroit Can Learn From Google
Carmakers need to let go of their musty business models and start thinking like 21st century companies—like Google.
Google listens to us and trusts us when it releases unfinished products as "betas" so we can tell them what to do next. That's the approach behind Google News, Gmail, and the new Chrome browser. The company also lets us tailor searches so we turn up only images or book excerpts. And Google pays attention to us by using our clicks and links to determine rank in search results. The more people who connect to a blog post on the best recipe for lamb tagine, the more prominent Google will make that Web site when people hunt for dinner ideas.
Google wants us involved in the creative process; Detroit doesn't. Richard Florida, author of Who's Your City?, said Detroit's car companies were "destroyed" by "a management mind set that said, 'We know it all, we don't need anyone other's ideas, and we can do anything we want with our companies.' "
~Jeff Jarvis in Business Week
Related: "What Detroit Can Learn from Bangalore," from Reason Magazine, June 2006
Housing Affordability Surges to Record High in Dec.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released its latest Housing Affordability Index (HAI) today, showing that housing affordability reached an all-time record high of 158.8 in December (see chart above).
A HAI of 158.8 would mean that the typical household earning the median family income of $61,058 in December would have 158.8% of the qualifying income to purchase a median-priced existing single-family house ($174,700) with a 20% down payment, which would be the highest level of housing affordability since the NAR started reporting housing affordability in 1971. Since mid-2006, the HAI has risen by almost 60 points, from 100 to 158.8 (see chart).
Stated differently, the annual qualifying income required to purchase a median-price house (with a 20% down payment) is only $38,448, with monthly payments based on a 5.59%, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ($801 per month for principal and interest). Given the median family income of about $61,058, the typical family would have 158.8% of the income required to qualify for the mortgage to purchase the $174,700 home.
Hopefully, the increase in housing affordability and new record-high will play an important role in the real estate market's recovery. Interestingly, the record-high level of housing affordability has not yet been reported, or at least I couldn't find a single news report on this topic.
Bad and Really, Really, Really Bad
Living with double-digit interest rates in Brazil.
It could be worse, try living in Zimbabwe with 230,000,000% inflation.
What About Exxon's Extraordinary Taxes?
HOUSTON -- Exxon Mobil reported a profit of $45.2 billion for 2008, breaking its own record for a U.S. company, even as its fourth-quarter earnings fell 33% from a year ago. The previous record for annual profit was $40.6 billion, which the world's largest publicly traded oil company set in 2007. The extraordinary full-year profit wasn't a surprise given crude's triple-digit price for much of 2008, peaking near an unheard of $150 a barrel in July.
As usual, Exxon's "extraordinary" profits in 2008 will receive a lot of media attention, but what won't receive much attention is the "extraordinary" amount of taxes paid and collected by Exxon in 2008. According to Exxon's income statement, it paid $36.53 billion in 2008 income taxes, and its effective income tax rate increased to 47% from 44% in 2007. Exxon also reported $34.5 billion in sales-based taxes, and $45.2 billion in other taxes, for a total $116.2 billion taxes paid and collected in 2008 (see chart above).
$646,214 Per Government Job
House Democrats propose to spend $550 billion of their two-year, $825 billion "stimulus bill" (the rest of it being tax cuts). Most of the spending is unlikely to be timely or temporary. Strangely, most of it is targeted toward sectors of the economy where unemployment is the lowest.
The December unemployment rate was only 2.3% for government workers and 3.8% in education and health. Unemployment rates in manufacturing and construction, by contrast, were 8.3% and 15.2% respectively. Yet 39% of the $550 billion in the bill would go to state and local governments. Another 17.3% would go to health and education -- sectors where relatively secure government jobs are also prevalent.
If the intent of the plan is to alleviate unemployment, why spend over half of the money on sectors where unemployment is lowest?
~Cato's Alan Reynolds' article "$646,214 Per Government Job"
Significant Turnover in the Top 400 U.S. Earners
The IRS has a new report on the 400 taxpayers reporting the highest adjusted gross incomes (AGI) from 1992 to 2006, summarized in the table above. The 6,000 tax returns (400 highest earners x 15 years) from 1992 to 2006 represented 3,305 unique, individual taxpayers, since some taxpayers made it into the top 400 earner group more than one year. The data show that:
1. Of the group of 3,305 top earners from 1992-2006, 2,394 individuals made it into the top 400 only one time during the 15-year period. Those 2,394 one-timers represent 72.44% of the total (3,305), so only 27.56% made it into the top 400 more than once (see columns 2 and 3).
2. Moreover, 2,394 earners made it into the top 400 once (72.44%), and another 408 (12.34%) made it into the top group twice. So 84.78% made it into the top group either once or twice, and only 15.22% made it into the top group more than twice (see columns 2 and 3).
3. There were only 8 taxpayers out of 3,305 (1/4 of 1%) who were in the top 400 in all of the 15 years.
4. In any given year, on average, about 40% of the returns were filed by taxpayers that are not in any of the other 14 years (see columns 4 and 5).
According to the IRS, "the data shown in the table mostly represent a changing group of taxpayers over time, rather than a fixed group of taxpayers."
HT: Tax Foundation
Best Economic Indicator You've Never Heard Of
Both Dennis Gartman and Larry Kudlow have reported recently on the recovery in the London-based Baltic Dry Index (BDI), "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain."
A few years back, Slate Magazine called BDI the "The best economic indicator you've never heard of."
The chart above displays the BDI over the last three months, and shows the strong 34% increase in the BDI since its low in mid-December. Could this be a recovery "mustard seed?"
Real Estate Agents Say Home-price Tide Has Turned
CHICAGO TRIBUNE -- Chicago-area real estate agents, who have been pleading for months with stubborn sellers to lower their prices, say the tide has finally turned and sellers are capitulating. Price reductions totaling $25,000 or more are becoming commonplace, and homes that have been relisted after several months off the market are being offered for significantly less.
"We're essentially at fair market value," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank. While he said he believes the worst is behind the market, he added: "Given the credit conditions and the environment, it wouldn't be a surprise to me if we shot below fair market value."
Related: December new home sales report from First Trust.
Beware of the False Claims About Jobless Claims
WASHINGTON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - The number of people remaining on the unemployment benefits roll after drawing an initial week of aid, or continued claims, rose 159,000 to a higher-than-forecast 4.776 million in the week ended Jan 17, the most recent week for which data is available. The Labor Department said this was the highest reading since its records on this series began in 1967.
MP: There's a little problem here. The size of the labor force has doubled since 1967, which distorts the comparison of today's continued claims to past years (the chart above illustrates this issue using the labor force vs. initial jobless claims). Consider 1982, when there were 4,713,000 continued claims (lower than today), but there was also a much smaller labor force (110.744 million) than today (154.447 million). As a percent of the labor force, the continued claims in 1982 represented 4.256% of the labor force. Given our labor force today, it would require 6.57 million continued claims to reach the same 4.256% level as 1982, or an additional 1.8 million people.
Bottom Line: Adjusted for the size of the labor force, we're still nowhere close to a record for continued unemployment claims. But that reality won't stop the media from reporting "record jobless claims," there are already dozens of new stories with that "false claim" about "record claims."
1982 Jobless Claims = 937,000 Jobless Claims in '09
The Department of Labor just released its weekly update on jobless claims, reporting that:
For the week ending Jan. 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 588,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 585,000. The 4-week moving average was 542,500, an increase of 24,250 from the previous week's revised average of 518,250.
MP: In December 2008, weekly initial claims (4-week moving average) averaged 549,062, compared to the January 2009 average of 526,625. That decline of -22,438 on a monthly average basis represents the largest monthly decline since November of 2005 (-50,425).
The chart above shows average monthly initial claims as a percent of the labor force, from January 1980 to January 2009. (For January 2009, I have assumed that the labor force remained at the same level as December 2008, 154.447 million). In previous posts (here and here), I have documented how the increasing size of the labor force over time distorts the frequent comparisons of today's jobless claims to the number of claims in previous years. For example, the labor force has increased +45% since 1980, from 106.78 million in 1980 to 154.5 million today, an increase of more than 48 million workers.
As bad as the average 526,625 jobless claims in January might seem, we're still nowhere near the jobless claim levels of 1982 or 1991, as a percent of the labor force. In 1991, jobless claims as a percent of the labor force peaked at .3915%, which would be the equivalent today of 604,660 jobless claims. And to be equivalent to the .6067% reached in 1982, we'd have to have 937,000 claims today, or almost double our current level.
Those Merciless, Greedy Consumers Run The Show
The consumers are merciless. They never buy in order to benefit a less efficient producer and to protect him against the consequence of his failure to manage better. They want to be served as well as possible. And the working of the capitalist system forces the entrepreneur to obey the orders issued by these consumers.
~Ludwig von Mises from "Bureaucracy" (via today's The Gartman Letter)
Here's a dirty little secret about capitalism: consumers, not corporations, run the show. If you find something about the marketplace objectionable, it would be more appropriate to blame those who actually call the shots: the ruthless, cutthroat, and disloyal American consumers.
Consumers are the kings and queens of the market economy, and ultimately they reign supreme over corporations and their employees. When corporations make mistakes and introduce products that consumers don't want, which happens frequently, you can count on consumers voicing their opinions forcefully and immediately by their lack of spending.
In a market economy, it is consumers, not businesses, who ultimately make all of the decisions. When they vote in the marketplace with their dollars, consumers decide which products, businesses, and industries survive—and which ones fail (see chart above of the 1.5 million business bankruptcy filings since 1980). It is therefore consumers who indirectly but ultimately make the hiring and firing decisions, not corporations. After all, corporations can make no money, hire no people, and pay no taxes unless somebody, sooner or later, buys their products.
What consumer sovereignty in a free marketplace translates into is each person husbanding his resources for the greatest benefit to himself and his family, which in turn translates into the greatest efficiency in the consumption of the world's scarce resources. If you don't like the message of the marketplace, don't assume that corporations and greed are to blame while consumer behavior and consumer greed play no role in the outcome. We should be thankful, in fact, that the marketplace puts consumers on such a powerful pedestal.
~From my 2002 article "Consumer, Not Corporate, "Greed" Is Ultimately Behind Layoffs"
Capitalism and Markets Fuel Economic Growth
The chart above (click to enlarge) shows annual real GDP per capita (in 2004 dollars) from 1800 to 2008 (data from Global Financial Data, paid subscription required). Between 1800 and 1904, real GDP per capita grew in the U.S. at 1.5% per year, a sustained, positive growth rate in real output over an entire century that was likely historically unprecedented until the 19th Century, and even then a phenomenon isolated to only America and Western Europe. The 1.5% annual growth translated into almost a 5 time increase in per capita real GDP between 1800 and 1904, from $1,069 to $5,202.
As impressive as the 1.5% real annual growth was in the 19th Century, the average growth rate in the 20th Century increased by more than a third, to above 2% per year from 1904-2008, an increase in the growth trend clearly observable in the chart above (blue line). Because of the higher growth rate, real GDP increased more than 8 times between 1904 and 2008, from $5,202 in 1904 to $42,675 in 2008.
How much better off are we today because of the acceleration of economic growth from 1.5% per year in the 19th century to 2% in the 20th century? The dashed brown line above tells the story. If annual growth had continued at 1.5%, real GDP per capita today would be only $24,475 (about the level back in 1982); instead it's actually 74% higher at $42,675.
We hear a lot lately about the defects and flaws of the market economy, and the death of capitalism, etc., but as the Adam Smith Institute points out "Capitalism is the only economic system ever to manage a consistent and long lasting rise in the average standard of living." As bad as economic conditions might appear today, the trend in economic growth over the last 200 years, largely as a result of capitalism and markets, suggests that we still have a lot to be thankful for. Capitalism works.
Wingsuit Base Jumping: These Boys Are Crazy
HT: Mark Schrantz
Stimulated vs. Unstimulated
(Click to enlarge.)
Any so-called stimulus program is a ruse. The government can increase its spending only by reducing private spending equivalently. Whether government finances its added spending by increasing taxes, by borrowing, or by inflating the currency, the added spending will be offset by reduced private spending. Furthermore, private spending is generally more efficient than the government spending that would replace it because people act more carefully when they spend their own money than when they spend other people's money.
~George Mason economist Richard Wagner
In stimulus package language, if Congress taxes to hand out money, one person is stimulated at the expense of another, who pays the tax, who is unstimulated.
~George Mason economist Walter Williams
Internet Doesn't Give a Damn About the Recession
In 2008 the stock market fell into shambles, the real estate market tumbled, big companies announced big layoffs, venture capital investors became more careful, and the entire world economy went downhill. It's enough to put a sour face on the most optimistic person.
But now contrast this with what happened to the Internet in 2008:
The number of websites increased by 20%.
The number of domain names increased by 19%.
Not to mention that there were more than 1.4 billion people on the Internet, a number that will keep growing.
So, while everything else shrinks and decreases, the Internet just keeps growing. It probably isn't growing as fast as it would if the overall world economy was blossoming, but it IS growing at a healthy rate. This would indicate that the Internet as a whole operates on a separate level from the general economy.
Take A Free Finance Course From Robert Shiller
Academic Earth provides thousands of free video lectures from the world's top scholars at Harvard, Yale, MIT, Berkeley, Princeton, Stanford and Yale on a wide variety of subjects(sciences, law, math, philosophy, religion, history, computer science, economics, etc.). From its website:
Academic Earth is an organization founded with the goal of giving everyone on earth access to a world-class education. As more and more high quality educational content becomes available online for free, we ask ourselves, what are the real barriers to achieving a world class education? At Academic Earth, we are working to identify these barriers and find innovative ways to use technology to increase the ease of learning.
We are building a user-friendly educational ecosystem that will give Internet users around the world the ability to easily find, interact with, and learn from full video courses and lectures from the world's leading scholars. Our goal is to bring the best content together in one place and create an environment that in which that content is remarkably easy to use and in which user contributions make existing content increasingly valuable.
Example: A 25-lecture course (about 1.25 hours each) in Financial Markets, taught by Yale economist Robert Shiller, supplemented with guest lectures by Larry Summers, Carl Icahn, Stephen Schwarzman (co-founder of The Blackstone Group), Andrew Redleaf (hedge fund manager, Whitebox Advisors) and David Swensen (Yale's Chief Investment Officer).
There's also a 24-lecture course on Game Theory, taught by Yale economics professor Benjamin Polak.
Thanks to Ben Cunningham.
There's No Such Thing as "Free" Growth
You've probably heard of TANSTAAFL? University of Mississippi economics professor William Shughart explains why there's no so such thing as "free" growth (TNSTAFG):
News that Toyota will delay indefinitely construction of its yet-unfinished North American plant in Blue Springs, Miss., provides further proof, if any is needed, that government should not be in the economic development business. It also makes plain that government "investments" in infrastructure, green technology and other public works, as proposed in President Obama's stimulus package, will be little different than other government spending programs, funneling taxpayer money to favored special interests.
There is no such thing as "free" growth. Even in the rare case where public subsidies actually do attract new business, additional public services will be needed to accommodate the business and its employees. New classrooms will have to be built and new teachers hired, highway budgets will have to be increased to maintain more heavily used roads and bridges, more sanitation workers will be needed, and so on. The extra burden on the public sector needs to be factored in. When the new company has been granted relief from state and local taxes, the higher tax bill falls on existing residents and businesses, possibly destroying as many or more jobs as the politicians pompously credit themselves for creating in the first place.
The truth is: It is not government's function to create jobs. Putting people to work is easy, as demonstrated by FDR's Depression-era Works Progress Administration, more accurately known as "WPA: We Piddle Around." The bigger challenge is to create wealth. Toyota failed to foresee the economic events that caused its expansion plans to unravel.
Keep this in mind when Congress and the White House are selecting economic stimulus projects to fund this year. If highly successful private firms like Toyota - with their extraordinary market research and years of savvy and experience - sometimes embark on projects that turn sour, how can we expect politicians, most of whom have no such business know-how, to pick winners? There is a difference, however. Companies usually risk their own money. In Washington, the politicians will be risking ours.
Luxury 50 Yardline Suite Superbowl Tickets: $150k
Luxury Suite on the 50 yard line offered by owner of suite-- 8 tickets, 3 parking passes, 6 flat screen TVs, private restroom, private bar & lounge area, & full catering. Tickets may be purchased in pairs for $37,500.00 per pair - or best offer.
"Buy it Now" price on Ebay: $150,000
See more Superbowl 2009 listings here on Ebay.
Sowell Makes The Case For Tax Cuts
Out of $355 billion newly appropriated, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that only $26 billion will be spent this fiscal year and only $110 billion by the end of 2010. Using long, drawn-out processes to put money into circulation to meet an emergency is like mailing a letter to the fire department to tell them that your house is on fire.
If you cut taxes tomorrow, people would have more money in their next paycheck, and it would probably be spent by the time they got that paycheck, through increased credit card purchases beforehand. If all this sound and fury in Washington was about getting an economic crisis behind us, tax cuts could do that a lot faster.
~Thomas Sowell
Pimp My Farm: Lusting After Taxpayer Money
Members of Congress are less like whores than they are like pimps for persons unwillingly conscripted to perform unpleasant services.
Consider, for example, agricultural subsidies. Each year a handful of farmers and agribusinesses receive billions of taxpayer dollars. These are dollars that government forcibly takes from the pockets of taxpayers and then transfers to farmers.
The customers, in this case, are the farmers and agribusinesses. The suppliers of the services performed for these customers are taxpayers, for it's the taxpayers who possess the ultimate asset -- money -- that farmers and agribusinesses lust after. And the intermediaries who oblige the suppliers to satisfy the base lusts of the customers are politicians. Just as pimps facilitate their customers' access to prostitutes' assets, politicians facilitate their customers' access to taxpayers' assets.
~Donald Boudreaux, chairman of the Department of Economics at George Mason University
The Central Defect of Bailouts and Stimulus Plans
The central defect of government bailouts and stimulus packages is that the money is allocated through a political process. It goes to recipients who have the most political influence. Private entrepreneurs and even big business, by contrast, employ investment to earn a profit. The record shows that the latter yields greater economic efficiency, and hence creates real jobs.
The new stimulus package pays lip service to aiding the private sector with various tax incentives for hiring and investing capital. It acknowledges, just barely, that the private sector will be the engine for recovery if recovery is to be had. But the record for such measures is about as dismal as the one for short-term supplements to consumer income. They do very little to change the decisions or behavior of the recipient. If the recipient is wary and uncertain about the future, he or she will probably remain so.
Socialist economies, where governments decide how to allocate resources, are notoriously less efficient than market-capitalist economies. As in Washington, every politician demands his share. The late Abram Bergson of Harvard concluded that the old Soviet Union -- the ultimate in socialism -- employed capital only about half as efficiently as the U.S. That is one reason the Soviets collapsed from economic exhaustion.
Democrats are putting a lot of faith, to the tune of over $1.5 trillion, in economic policies with dodgy track records. At this time of a new president and great expectations, one hopes the political class will succeed better with massive spending than it has in the past. But don't bet the farm.
~George Melloan in yesterday's WSJ
Harvesting Cash: Corporate Welfare for Farmers
Consider these facts. Ninety percent of all subsidies go to just five crops: corn, rice, cotton, wheat, and soybeans. Two thirds of all farm products—including perishable fruits and vegetables—receive almost no subsidies. And just 10% of recipients receive 75% of all subsidies. A program intended to be a "temporary solution" has become one of our government's most glaring examples of corporate welfare.
U.S. taxpayers aren't the only ones who pay the price. Cotton subsidies, for example, encourage overproduction which lowers the world price of cotton. That's great for people who buy cotton, but it's disastrous for already impoverished cotton farmers in places such as West Africa.
U.S. farm programs cost taxpayers billions each year, significantly raise the price of commodities such as sugar (which is protected from competition from other producers in other countries), undermine world trade agreements, and contribute to the suffering of poor farmers around the world. It's bad public policy, especially in these troubled economic times.
From a new report and video from Reason "Agricultural Subsidies: Corporate Welfare for Farmers," (link here).
MP: As the chart above shows, another fact to consider is that average 2007 household farm income ($86,223) was 27.5% higher than U.S. average household income ($67,609), according to the USDA.
Is China Manipulating the Yuan? Should We Care?
According to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (in his testimony before the Senate Finance Committee):
President Obama - backed by the conclusions of a broad range of economists - believes that China is manipulating its currency. President Obama has pledged as President to use aggressively all the diplomatic avenues open to him to seek change in China's currency practices. While in the U.S. Senate he cosponsored tough legislation to overhaul the U.S. process for determining currency manipulation and authorizing new enforcement measures so countries like China cannot continue to get a free pass for undermining fair trade principles. The question is how and when to broach the subject in order to do more good than harm.
Q1: Why does everybody complain that China "manipulates" its currency, but nobody complains that Hong Kong "manipulates" its currency, even though Hong Kong has used a currency board to fix the Hong Kong dollar at the same level for the last 25 years (see chart above back to 2000 - Hong Kong dollar has been at the same level since 1984)?
Q2: Is it fair to accuse China of "manipulating" its currency when the yuan has appreciated by -17% since 2005 (see chart above)?
Q3: If China is "manipulating" its currency, the manipulation is to keep the dollar artificially high. Why should we complain about a strong dollar, when that translates into lower dollar prices for American consumers and businesses buying Chinese products? What if China sent us its goods for free, as a form of foreign aid? That would be even better than an artificially strong dollar, but an artificially high dollar and "everyday low prices" for China's products aren't so bad.
Global Internet Users Now Top 1 Billion, China's #1
LONDON, U.K., January 23, 2009 – comScore, Inc. (NASDAQ: SCOR), a leader in measuring the digital world, today reported that total global Internet audience (age 15 and older from home and work computers) has surpassed 1 billion visitors in December 2008, based on data from the comScore World Metrix audience measurement service.
"Surpassing one billion global users is a significant landmark in the history of the Internet," said Magid Abraham, President and Chief Executive Officer, comScore, Inc. "It is a monument to the increasingly unified global community in which we live and reminds us that the world truly is becoming more flat. The second billion will be online before we know it, and the third billion will arrive even faster than that, until we have a truly global network of interconnected people and ideas that transcend borders and cultural boundaries."
China represented the largest online audience in the world in December 2008 with 180 million Internet users (see chart above from The Economist), representing nearly 18% of the total worldwide Internet audience, followed by the U.S. (16.2% share), Japan (6.0%), Germany (3.7%) and the U.K. (3.6%).
Obama's Stimulus: George Bush On Steroids
Cato Institute's Dan Mitchell explains why Obama's so-called stimulus is good for the government, but bad for the economy:
The Big Mac Index: Law of One Price vs. PPP
From The Economist, "The Big Mac index (see chart above) is based on the idea of purchasing-power parity (PPP), which says currencies should trade at the rate that makes the price of goods the same in each country."
Technically, the Big Mac Index is more of a test of the Law of One Price, an economic law that says "In an efficient market all identical goods must have only one price." Purchasing Power Parity generally applies to a basket of goods.
Air Quality Today is Better Than a Decade Ago
Economist Steven Landsburg writes in The Altlanic that "The air is cleaner than it was a decade ago..." and provides this EPA link.
The charts above display the ambient air quality trends for particle pollution ("particulate matter" or PM), and show that average PM concentrations have decreased over the years by -28% since 1990 for the first measure (PM10) and by -11% since 2000 for the second measure (PM2.5).
Bottom Line: Landsburg is correct, the air today is cleaner than it was in the past (according to EPA data).
What Crisis? Why the Bush Years Weren't So Bad and Why It's Getting Better All The Time
Obama is already asking for an unprecedented increase in the size of the national debt. Before we go back down that road, maybe we should stop and ask: "What crisis?''
Start with this: You are better off than you were four years ago. After adjusting for inflation, the average American earns about $2500 a year more today than on the day of W's second inaugural. That same average American now spends a little less time at the office or on the assembly line, and a little more time on vacation or on the couch. He or she shops online for products that were unimaginable just four years ago. (How many of you read this morning's paper on your Kindle or iPhone?) The air is cleaner than it was a decade ago and life expectancy is up.
Not that the last president had much to do with any of this. He didn't. It's the way the modern world works. Things improve. Incomes rise, work hours fall, the quality of goods improves. Few things in economics are as consistent as the growth of real GDP per capita over the past 200 years (see chart above).
Today we're in a recession--a moment in time when the march of growth stalls and even gets set back by a couple of years. This happens every now and then. Really. But things pick up again and we move on. Some people get set back a little farther than others; some are unemployed for a while. But the pool of resources is still near an all-time high.
~Economist Steven E. Landsburg in The Atlantic Magazine
Target: Why Not Just Lower Prices or Raise Wages?
From the Target Corporate Responsibility Report Overview 2007:
Since 1946, we have contributed 5% of our annual income to programs that serve our communities. Today, this long-standing tradition means that more than $3 million every week goes to education initiatives that inspire children to learn, make it possible for families to experience the arts and to partner with a variety of social service agencies, families and communities across the country.
You might have seen large signs in Target stores with that message, I think it has them in every store.
Q: Wouldn't it be a lot easier for Target to just lower its prices and/or increase wages for Target employees by $3 million weekly? Wouldn't that be a more direct, and just as effective, way to serve the communities where Target stores are located?
The Real Price of Lumber is The Lowest in History, Thanks To Advanced Time-Saving Technology
Watch the amazing video below, maybe this time-saving technology helps explain why the real price of lumber is the lowest in history (see chart above), at least back to 1891:
Thanks to Ben Cunningham for the video.
Chart of the Day: Percent Homes Using Wood, Coal
CENSUS BUREAU -- Tracing the history of heating fuels from 1940 to 2000 shows that 3-in-4 households used coal or wood in 1940, whereas only 1.8% of homes used these fuels in 2000. Homes using coal or coke for heating fuel dropped rapidly in each decade between 1940 (55%) and 1970 (2.9%); and the rate continued to drop until 0.1% of homes used these fuels in 2000. Wood, used as a major heating fuel in 1940 (23%), virtually disappeared by 1970 (only 1.3%). Since that time, it has shown a modest comeback in 1990 (3.9%), but dropped in 2000 (1.7%). It was the dominant fuel in the Pacific Northwest and South in 1940.
Update: Here's maybe one interesting way to look at the data in the chart above. It took thousands and thousands of years before fewer than half of all American households in 1950 needed either wood or coal to heat their homes (counting the long history of Native Americans), and then it took only 50 years for almost all of the rest of the households to eliminate wood and coal as their main source of home heating fuel. In other words, what first took thousands of years to accomplish was then next accomplished in only 50 years.
14 Businesses That Started in a Recession; and Why A Recession Is Good Time To Start Business
Including FedEx, Microsoft, CNN, Wikipedia, HP, etc. Pre-existing companies can also make incredible gains in years where the economy is down, like Google, PayPal and Salesforce.com Inc.
From 2000 to 2001 each of these companies thrived, leading PayPal to go public in 2002, followed by Google and Salesforce.com in 2004.
Five reasons why a recession is actually a great time to nurture and incubate a small company.
Another Reason Fiscal Stimulus Won't Work: LAGS
WASHINGTON POST -- Less than half the money dedicated to highways, school construction and other infrastructure projects in a massive economic stimulus package unveiled by House Democrats is likely to be spent within the next two years, according to congressional budget analysts, meaning most of the spending would come too late to lift the nation out of recession.
A report by the Congressional Budget Office found that only about $136 billion of the $355 billion that House leaders want to allocate to infrastructure and other so-called discretionary programs would be spent by Oct. 1, 2010. The rest would come in future years, long after the CBO and other economists predict the recession will have ended.
For example, of $30 billion in highway spending, less than $4 billion would occur over the next two years. Of $18.5 billion proposed for renewable energy, less than $3 billion would be spent by 2011. And of $14 billion for school construction, less than $7 billion would be spent in the first two years.
From Bruce Bartlett's Wall Street Journal article "If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It" (12/2/1992):
This follows the pattern of postwar countercyclical programs: All were enacted well after the end of the recession. They exacerbated inflation, raised interest rates and made the next recession worse.
Bartlett documents the fiscal stimulus plans that were passed in response to the recessions 1948-49, 1957-58, 1960-91, 1969-70, 1973-75, and 1981-82, and shows that: a) in each of the six recessions, the fiscal stimulus legislation wasn't even signed into law until the end of the recession at the earliest, and in some cases wasn't passed until a year after the recession ended, and b) in all cases the fiscal stimulus plans took effect well after the recessions had ended.
MP: There has been a lot of debate lately about the effectiveness of stimulus plans, and the size of the multipliers, etc., and most of that debate probably assumes that the timing of the stimulus is perfect. But what if the timing isn't perfect, due to the long legislative lags designing the policy and the long lags before the policies actually take effect? In that case, even if some of the multiplier effects work as intended, it's still possible the policy will fail, and will actually destabilize an economy that has already recovered from a recession.
In other words, unless fiscal stimulus is timed perfectly, it will fail to stimulate the economy. Given the reality of legislative and effectiveness lags, perfect timing is impossible. Given that reality, fiscal stimulus policy won't work due to the problem of lags, regardless of any multiplier effects.
See Greg Mankiw's related post about fiscal policy lags here.
When You Can't Count On the Market for Success...
GM is not counting on market success for its comeback. It has neither the cash reserves nor the brilliant product line needed for that in a down economy, when sales are expected to be 40% lower than two years ago (the lowest volume since the 1973 Arab oil embargo).
GM is counting on the government to stay alive.
~"Detroit Bets Its Future on Washington" in today's WSJ by Detroit News cartoonist Henry Payne (see his latest cartoon here) and Shikha Dalmia
IBD's Michael Ramirez:
Detroit News' Henry Payne:
It's Deja Vu All Over Again: 1992 vs. 2009
The July 1990 to March 1991 recession was one of the shortest in U.S. history (8 months according to the NBER) and relatively mild: the jobless rate averaged only 6.1% during the recession and reached a high of only 6.8% by the end of the recession (although it continued to rise after the recession ended, see chart above). I think there is a general consensus that the 1990-91 recession was nowhere near as severe as the three previous recessions of the 1970s and 1980s, and it's a fact that the 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions were twice as long (16 months) as the 1990-91 recession. And yet, as a follow up to yesterday's CD post, here is what the media were reporting about the 1990-91 recession:
"In 1991 the average American expressed more pessimism about the future than at any time since the Great Depression."
"There is no question but this is the worst economic time since the Great Depression."
"Sluggish economic growth this year will cap the worst three-year period centered on a recession since the Great Depression."
"Forecasts for a weak recovery in 1992 suggest the period since 1990 will be the worst for the economy since the Great Depression."
".....the worst plunge since the Great Depression."
"The banking industry has plunged to its lowest point since the Great Depression."
"This is the most severe economic dislocation we've had since the 1930s. Few are immune."
"Mr. Barry, a past president of the Chamber of Commerce, said 50 For Sale signs are just the tip of the iceberg, since many bank foreclosures and repossessions do not carry signs. "It's not a recession, it's a depression," he said."
"….with the US economy locked in a recession and more people out of work since the Great Depression."
"....the worst (retail) sales period on record since the Great Depression."
"This recession is hitting white-collar workers more heavily than any since the Great Depression of the 1930s."
Links available here.
More On $71 Per Hour vs. $49 Per Hour
What do employees of the United Auto Workers cost auto makers in salary and benefits?
About $71 an hour, significantly more than the $49 paid by nonunionized counterparts at Japanese, German and other so-called "transplant" factories in the U.S. But most of that gap is in how much GM, Chrysler and Ford shell out for workers who long ago clocked out for retirement.
According to documents submitted by Ford to Congress, the auto maker pays its current workers $29 an hour. Wages and other labor costs are generally the same for GM and Chrysler, according to company officials and labor experts. The equivalent wage on the nonunion side is a bit less at the older foreign-owned auto plants. Toyota pays workers in Kentucky about $26 an hour.
The gap widens because United Auto Workers get more holidays and vacation pay. The Big Three also have to continue paying workers who have been laid off. For that, Detroit's three auto makers pony up an additional $14 an hour, compared with $9 for the transplants. The big difference comes in the cost of health care and pensions for retired workers. Over the decades, the number of retired Big Three workers has risen into the hundreds of thousands. Their health care and pension costs add $16 to the hourly labor costs the Detroit companies pay.
~Wall Street Journal
Update: Chart above added.
Time Magazine Cover Story: Why We're So Gloomy
Some selected excerpts from the Time Magazine Cover Story "Why We're So Gloomy":
"I haven't really been able to sort out exactly why there has been this degree of pessimism."
~Former President Bush
Well, why are Americans so gloomy, fearful and even panicked about the current economic slump?
In one of history's most painful paradoxes, U.S. consumers seem suddenly disillusioned with the American Dream of rising prosperity even as capitalism and democracy have consigned the Soviet Union to history's trash heap. Hard times are forcing some people to turn their back on the American Dream.
"Whining" hardly captures the extent of the gloom Americans feel as the current downturn enters its 14th month. The slump is the longest, if not the deepest, since the Great Depression. Traumatized by layoffs that have cost more than 1.2 million jobs during the slump, U.S. consumers have fallen into their deepest funk in years.
While some economists have described the current slump as a near depression, that phrase overstates the case if it is taken as a comparison with the period 1929-33, when the U.S. economy contracted by nearly a third. The D word becomes more valid, especially with a small d, when it is used to compare the growth rate of the 1930s, which averaged 0.5% a year, with the expected sluggishness of the next decade, which some economists predict will see an average growth rate of 2%.
"I'm worried if my kids can earn a decent living and buy a house," says Tony Lentini, vice president of public affairs for Mitchell Energy in Houston. "I wonder if this will be the first generation that didn't do better than their parents. There's a genuine feeling that the country has gotten way off track, and neither political party has any answers. Americans don't see any solutions."
The deeper tremors emanate from the kind of change that occurs only once every few decades. America is going through a historic transition from a heedless borrow-and-spend society to one that stresses savings and investment. When this recession is over, America will not simply go back to business as usual.
The underlying change in the way American consumers and business leaders think about saving and spending will make the recovery one of the slowest in history and the next decade one of lowered expectations. Many economists agree that the U.S. will face at least several years of very modest growth as consumers and companies work off the vast debt they assumed in the last decade.
The conditions that led to today's transition economy go back several decades. Americans have suffered a long-term stagnation of their earnings. The median income of U.S. families has virtually stood still since 1973, showing an annual gain of just 0.3% a year.
The recent debt binge took place on a colossal scale in every sector of the economy. Runaway federal deficits have more than tripled the national debt. Meanwhile, consumers increased their IOUs from $1.4 trillion to $3.7 trillion last year. And U.S. industry raised its debt from $1.4 trillion to $3.5 trillion over the same period. The reckless borrowing made a reckoning inevitable.
So far, though, no reprieve from layoffs is anywhere in sight. Economists say U.S. companies will shed more than 1 million jobs in fields ranging from banking to aerospace, a pace even faster than last year's. "It's become almost like a poker game to see who can cut the most," says employment analyst Lacey. "There's a kind of corporate frenzy."
GM's plans to close 25 plants and cut 74,000 jobs, or 19% of its work force, scarcely addresses such problems as why it takes the company up to a year longer than the Japanese to redesign its cars.
MP: This was from the January 13, 1992 edition of Time Magazine, and the opening quote was from President George H.W. Bush, and the article was about the relatively mild 1990-1991 recession. Note: I altered some of the text above so that the specific time period was not obvious. Notice the distinct similarities to the reporting about today's economy.
HT: Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution
Update: The 1990-91 recession started in July of 1990 and ended in March of 1991, but the end of the recession wasn't announced by the NBER until December 1992, so the Time Magazine article was actually written ten months after the 1990-1991 recession ended.
Jobless Claims Would Have to Top 900,000 To Reach the Same Levels of the 1970s and 1980s
Update: I found a longer dataset for jobless claims and was able to update the post below.
A Google News search for the two phrases "unemployment claims" and "26 years" results in more than 100 news items that report some version of this story: "The number of new U.S. unemployment claims rose to 589,000 in the past week, matching the highest level in more than 26 years." But what most news reports failed to mention is that today's labor force (154.4 million) is almost 40% higher than in 1983 (110.7 million), see chart above (click to enlarge), meaning that unadjusted comparisons of jobless claims today to 1983 are relatively meaningless.
The chart below shows monthly jobless claims as a percentage of the total labor force, from Jan. 1973 to December 2008 (should be approximately the same in January 2009). The current level of jobless claims as a percent of the labor force (0.355%) is above the 2001 recession, but below the four previous recessions (1973-1975, 1980, 1981-1982 and 1990-1991). To reach the same levels of jobless claims (as a percent of the labor force) as the recessions of the 1970s and 1980s (0.60%), we would have to see jobless claims today reach levels above 900,000.
Adjusted for the Growth in the Labor Force, Jobless Claims Are Below the 1990-91 Recession
ASSOCIATED PRESS -- The Labor Department reported today that initial jobless benefit claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 589,000 in the week ending Jan. 17, from an upwardly revised figure of 527,000 the previous week. The latest tally was well above Wall Street economists' expectations of 540,000 new claims. The total matches a 26-year high reached four weeks ago. The last time claims were higher was in November 1982, when the economy was emerging from a steep recession, though the work force has grown by about half since then.
MP: The chart above from 1987 to 2008 shows why comparisons of unemployment claims today to past years are meaningless, without adjusting for the change in labor force. In the last 22 years, the U.S. labor force (blue line) has increased by 30%, from about 119 million in 1987 to more than 154 million today.
The chart below shows initial jobless claims as a percent of the labor force, to adjust for the increase over time in the population and labor force. December's 0.355% level (549,000 average weekly claims / 154,447,000 labor force) is above the 0.333% peak at the end of the 2001 recession, but still way below the 0.3915% peak of the 1990-1991 recession. (Note: The January labor force number has not been released, but the average jobless claims so far in January (522,500 on a 4-week moving average basis) are actually lower than December's 549,000 number, so the January figure for jobless claims as a percent of labor force could be lower than December.)
Bottom Line: Adjusted for the size of the labor force, unemployment claims haven't even yet reached the level of 1990-1991 recession. So before we make exaggerated claims of the "worst economy since the Great Depression©" we might first make comparisons to the 1990-1991 recession, and it's still not yet as bad today as it was in the early 1990s. Calculated Risk uses a longer dataset that includes the 1970s and early 1980s, showing the same thing - we've got a long way to go before today's economic conditions come close to matching previous recessions of the 1970s and 1980s.
Traffic Volume Continues To Drop in November; New Record: An Annual Decline of -112B Miles
The Federal Highway Administration reported today (direct link here) that travel during November 2008 on all U.S. roads and streets fell by -5.3% compared to November 2007. This drop marks the thirteenth consecutive month of traffic volume decline compared to the same month in the previous year. Travel YTD through November 2008 also fell by -3.7% compared to 2007.
The thirteen consecutive monthly declines (November 2007 through November 2008) in miles driven compared to the same month in the previous year represents one of the most significant adjustments to driving behavior in American history.
On a moving 12-month total basis, traffic volume in November fell to 2,894 billion miles, the lowest level in almost five years - since January of 2004 (see chart above), and this measure of traffic volume fell in every month of 2008.
Bottom Line: The moving 12-month total traffic volume in November 2008 (2,894 billion miles) is below the November 2007 level (3,006 billion miles) by 112 billion annual miles driven, the largest annual decline in FHA history (data go back to 1971). At an average fuel efficiency of 20 m.p.g., and an average gas price of $3.39 per gallon over that period (data here), that reduction in miles driven represents an annual savings of almost $19 billion for American consumers and businesses.
That's in addition to the much larger $325 billion estimated annual savings for consumers and businesses from the drop in gas prices from $4.12 per gallon to $1.82 since July (gas price data here), since American consumers and businesses save about $1.42 billion annually for every penny decrease in gas prices (see calculation here).
GM: Borrowing at 8%, Lending at 0%
ASSOCIATED PRESS (12/30/2008) — General Motors said it will offer financing as low as 0% for several 2008 and 2009 models as the automaker makes a big year-end push to improve sales.
The news comes a day after its troubled lending unit, GMAC Financial Services, agreed to take a $5 billion loan from the Treasury Department. GM said it will offer 0% financing for up to 60 months on the 2008 Chevrolet TrailBlazer, GMC Envoy and Saab 9-7X sport utility vehicles through GMAC. The Saab 9-3 and 9-5 sedans also qualify for zero-percent financing. The carmaker is also offering financing between 0.9% and 5.9% on more than three dozen other 2008 and 2009 models, including many trucks and SUVs.
Separately, GMAC said Tuesday that it will offer auto loans to customers with credit scores as low as 621, eliminating restrictions put in place two months ago that required a minimum score of 700.
Quote of the day from Jeff Macke (CNBC Fast Money contributor) via Dennis Gartman's "The Gartman Letter":
"GM has become a company that borrowed money from the U.S. government at 8% and lent it to the American public at 0%. This is not a model we would like to build upon."
MP: And GMAC lowered credit standards at the same time it offered 0% financing.


ChineseTeas101.com is an online resource for all Chinese tea related matters.
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If you have any questions for us, please don't hesitate to contact us. We are always happy to help!
We have an active and interesting Chinese Tea Blog section that covers a wide range of topics.
The aim of the blog is to pass along our knowledge, whether that be about the different types of tea available, health benefits of drinking Chinese tea or how to make the perfect cup!
All of this and more can be found on our blog for you to read about.
As you can see there is a lot to offer and not only are all of our products certified 100% organic, they are also authentic, genuine Chinese teas!
Head over to our blog if you want to find out more about the different types available.
Whether it be a stylish glass tea pot, a beautiful Chinese tea storage canister or a traditional Gaiwan tea cup set, all can be found in our shop to help you enhance your Chinese tea experience!


There are great rewards to being a foster parent, but it can be challenging too! North Dakota provides a strong support system to help manage the foster parenting experience.
Reimbursement for the care of a North Dakota foster child is issued monthly to the foster parent depending on the child's age and whether the child requires special care due to physical, emotional or behavioral problems. Expenses such as room and board, specified travel costs, clothing, personal allowances, and other material needs are paid for a foster child. A child's health care needs are paid through Medicaid or health insurance.
North Dakota provides property damage liability coverage for licensed foster homes subject to certain conditions. This coverage is secondary to the foster parent's own insurance.
The licensing agency provides orientation followed by pre-service training. Each licensed foster family is required to complete annual training hours. Annual training opportunities are available on a local, regional and statewide basis.
Social workers are assigned to work with each foster parent and child to help meet home, school, family, and community needs.
The North Dakota Foster Parents Association provides a forum for foster parents to exchange and learn from each other's experiences. Local communities function differently across the state.
Foster parents receive Fostering Communication, a quarterly newsletter published by the UND Children and Family Services Training center.


text:
'use strict';

module.exports = function(sqlBuilder){
	require('./operators/basic')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./operators/logical')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./operators/aggregation')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./operators/comparison')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./operators/functions')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./select')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./joins')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./union')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./insert')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./update')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./delete')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./create-table')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./create-index')(sqlBuilder);
	require('./create-view')(sqlBuilder);
};

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
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Those New 'Snow Squall Warnings' Are Designed To Prevent Deadly Pileup Accidents
Dennis Mersereau 12/19/2019 12:32:00 AM nws snow snow squall warnings Leave a Reply
Millions of smartphones across the Northeast flashed an unfamiliar warning on Wednesday afternoon. The message came across as a push alert with the iconic screeching tone and an abrupt vibration: "Emergency Alert. Snow squall warning until 4:15 PM. Sudden whiteouts. Icy roads. Slow down! -NWS" These alerts may seem a little excessive on first glance, but they're targeted at motorists who need to know that they're approaching a potential whiteout that could cause a deadly pileup accident like the one that occurred in Pennsylvania on Wednesday.
The National Weather Service created snow squall warnings as a way to warn people in the path of snow squalls that they could experience sudden whiteout conditions, giving them enough time to pull off the road and wait for things to calm down before driving again.
Source: NWS New York
A local NWS office can issue more than a hundred different types of watches, advisories, and warnings. Some of the products are more urgent than others. The most important warnings—the ones that require you to stop what you're doing and pay attention to the weather instead—are usually issued using polygons, which allow forecasters to target warnings to only the areas at risk for life-threatening hazards like tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.
There's a different target audience for each of those polygon-based warnings. Tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings are "everyone" warnings, no matter who or where you are. Flash flood warnings are important to people who live in flood-prone areas and motorists who may approach a flooded roadway, but the vast majority of us can usually ignore them if we're going about our business at home or work.
Beginning in November 2018, the National Weather Service officially began issuing polygon-based snow squall warnings, giving forecasters the ability to instantly warn people that they could be in the path of a sudden burst of snow. Snow squall warnings are "driver" warnings. They're not targeted to people sitting in their living room or working at their cubicle. They're targeted at people on the road or those who are getting ready to head out.
Snow squall warnings are handled with the same urgency as tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for good reason.
Wow! Check out this time lapse of the #SnowSquall moving over Manhattan. Crazy cool view from the top of One World Trade Center. pic.twitter.com/K7kxjcA0Zt
— David Jones (@DavidJonesTV) December 18, 2019
We hear about pileup accidents all the time during the winter. A chain-reaction crash is pretty much the worst-case scenario for anyone out on the roads when a sudden burst of snow turns the roads to ice and drops visibility down near zero. Pileups can involve hundreds of cars in the most serious incidents, amassing dozens of injuries and fatalities as people get stuck in the wreckage and absorb the blow of every car and truck careening toward them.
The warnings worked exactly as expected on Wednesday. Several snow squalls moved across portions of the Northeast today, bringing whiteout conditions and dropping up to two inches of snow in under an hour. It doesn't look like much on radar (shown at the top of the post), but the tweet above shows how abruptly a cloud of snow can drop visibility down near zero.
Unfortunately, a snow squall in central Pennsylvania actually did cause a deadly pileup on I-80 about 20 miles east of State College. The Daily Item reported that two people died and dozens more were injured during the chain-reaction crashes.
There's only so much meteorologists can do to warn people of what's on the horizon. Just like a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning, it's not always possible to pull off the road or avoid a wreck when you find yourself driving into a snow squall. The new warnings are designed to give you an opportunity to seek safety that wasn't available before. It's all worth it if each warning helps even a couple of people stay safe.
[Top Image: Gibson Ridge]
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Born in 1952 in London UK, Mark Hodges obtained his BSc in Mechanical Engineering from Central London Polytechnic and then joined Marconi Avionics in Rochester, Kent, as a development engineer within the Airborne Display Division. During his ten years with Marconi Avionics he worked on many diverse and complex product development initiatives for a variety of aerospace and defense companies and gained substantial experience in project and program management. He also utilized computer aided engineering and design tools (CAE/CAD) as a regular part of the product development process.
Based on this experience he joined GE Calma a leading vendor of CAE & CAD tools as an application engineer and supported many of their UK and European customers. Following the acquisition of GE Calma by Prime/Computervision Inc. he became the manager of their hardware a software services business in the UK and northern Europe and had responsibility for the operational efficiency of a large team of field service engineers, spare parts distribution and management and maintenance contract revenues. After a number of successful years in this role he was asked to become the Program Manager for Computervision's largest customer Airbus Industries. In this role he was responsible for the implementation of their global concurrent engineering initiative which included the deployment of CAD, CAE & PLM (Product Lifecycle Management) tools across all of their engineering sites in the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
Following the acquisition of Computervision by PTC Inc. he held a variety of senior positions in Sales, Marketing and Consulting services before becoming the companies Chief Customer Officer. In this role he had responsibility for the global customer support organization with more than 500 engineers operating out of 15 worldwide support center locations delivering contract services to 25,000 customers. In addition, he maintained strong relationships with key strategic customers operating in the Automotive, Aerospace, High Technology, Retail and Heavy Equipment industries and implemented global processes to ensure that customer issues could be escalated and resolved as efficiently as possible and with minimum customer disruption. Success in this role led to increased responsibilities for corporate operations and culminated in 2008 with a short term role as General Manager for China Operations (based in Shanghai). He also chaired the company's Operations Council, a multi discipline group of senior managers focused specifically at improving operational efficiency, business process improvement and management of complex cross functional programs.
Mark Hodges retired from PTC Inc. in late 2014 and has been working with Telocyte since then to help formulate their business strategy, to plan and deliver corporate programs and to manage successful partner relationships.


GREAT FALLS – MTN News has learned about a death in Browning that has left a family searching for answers.
The family of Brittany Sue MadPlume, 18, confirmed with MTN News that she was found dead in a vehicle on the morning of January 12.
Brittany's family said she left her home the night before and never returned and that her body was found the next morning beaten with bruises all over her face, arms, and hands.
They added that law enforcement and the FBI roped off the scene and sent her body to the State Crime Lab in Missoula for an autopsy, but they are still waiting for answers.
Dianne Bird, Brittany's grandmother, said she was an outgoing person and a mother of two.
Family member Laurna Chief Goes Out said the family wants people to know Brittany had her entire life ahead of her.
"We want answers. We want to know what the cause of death was. What happened to her? For people to not sweep it under the rug and act like it's ok to go along with our lives when we're still living in it. We're still grieving in it. Her parents are in and out every day. They have to deal with this every day," she said.
MTN News reached out to the FBI and we are awaiting details. We will update the story when we get more information.


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Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
Feeling Glucky?
Location: Tanktown, ON
Jul 13 @ 8:26 PM ET
Well, that happens when you can find 30 better prospects on other teams.
Realistically, these things are all subjective, if you were to come up with a list, I think after about the 25 mark, if you take the most optimistic view you can of Chabot, White, or Brown, they MIGHT fit in. On average, I'm guessing late 20s or around 30th, and pessimistically, maybe mid 30s.
I can guarantee that 99% of people outside of Ottawa fans would take all of these guys ahead of Chabot, White, Brown or any other prospect in the system, from the last few drafts:
Puljujarvi
Provorov
Nylander
Marner
Rantenen
Werenski
Juolevi
Kyle Conner
Sanheim
Sergachev
Clayton Keller
Brock Boeser
Barzal
Zacha
Konecny
Just looking at the draft lists, I think those are probably all easily ahead.
then there are the ones that are probably questionable, for one reason or another
Vesey
Morrisey
Tyson Jost
Buchnevich
Chycrun (I would easily, weird to me he dropped)
Timo Meier
Lawson Crouse
Kempe? (I admit, I've not followed too closely recently)
Throw in some of the highest rated goalie prospects around, and there you go.
I think a couple of them might come close, depending on one's interpretation, but I think it's pretty safe to say none of the crack top 25 lists, and depending on the scout, or whatever, there may be a few lists out there where they won't crack the top 30.
- prock
Is that list in order or just random?
Cuz Marner that low...
spatso
Location: jensen beach, FL
Look dude ,quoting any major Toronto based media outlet including print .While trying to make a point really doesn fly well.They almost never talk about our team ,and when they do its usually just to sling mud
- top shelf 15
This is an important point. I have always thought the Toronto media had way too much influence in the Leaf decision making. The media creates a theme, they pump the theme and everyone comes to believe in the theme because nobody wants to break the story line.
I believe the Austin Matthews story is a prime example of a runaway theme. Matthews was not even close to being the best player in the draft after Christmas. Both Finns were clearly better and had it not been for the media pumping his story as the Leafs first overall selection he would have dropped to third or fourth. Simply, everyone had too much invested into the storyline too pull back on the story everyone (including fans) wanted to see.
Anyway it will be apparent once the season starts that Matthews (a good player) does not punch in the same class as the Finns. Leaf fans will likely be discouraged. But, I don't think anyone will figure it out. They will wonder why everyone missed on Laine and they will blame Leaf management. They will miss on the pervasive influence the media has on Leaf management decisions.
And, so, when White and Brown are the first and second line centres at the WJC this year and Chabot is Team Canada's #1 D you will remain silent. When Matthews struggles you will remain silent. When the Leafs languish in last place, well out of the playoffs by December you will remain silent.
Your still trying to pretend that Karlsson is not a prodigy, a truly gifted player.
I understand that your attacks on Edmonton players in the past and now Ottawa players in all about deflecting attention from the overall failure of the Leafs. Well, get ready, you are headed to another year of futility.
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Jul 14 @ 12:26 AM ET
- spatso
Jesus Christ, if brown is the #2 centre for wjc then Canada may as well not send a team.
Jul 14 @ 5:39 AM ET
- burn
Pst.....American.
Just read comment that the Leafs are trying to squeeze Matthews off of his entitled bonus package as a first overall pick. Sounds awfully dumb to me.
Funny, isn't this exactly what you just complained about earlier? The leafs have no leaks. There are no rumours about what they are doing. The "stories" about them and the bonuses is just that, stories. I haven't seen a single article saying that the leafs are negotiating with Matthews, none have quoted either side saying what's going on.its just them speculating...... Omg it's not signed yet, what could be the hold up.
Complains about Toronto based media, then turns around and uses them as source 2 posts later.
senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
You are not an NHL scout, but you try to play one on the Internet
At the time of the draft who was the player that was the consensus #1 by scouts?
D0PPELGANGER
Location: Ottawa, ON
Remember, he just finally admitted, in the last 6 months or so, that in fact Cary Price was an "elite" goaltender ......... so don't hold your breath.
Quick! Someone post the quote about Leafs fans overrating their prospects!
- Feeling Glucky?
This is not what you want to talk about. The Toronto based hockey media pumped Matthews all the way to #1. Now we hear people starting to back away and talk about Laine as the likely Calder favourite. What is wrong with these guys?
- senstroll
That is my point. It was not a consensus. Even in the TSN survey two scouts shifted to Laine as their 1st overall pick. But the Leafs were way too deep into Matthews to move off their earlier plan. Too bad.
walshyleafsfan
Location: I really don't care about Nylander, I really hope he gets injured and is out - Makita
It's Spatso man
http://www.hockeybuzz.com...hp?thread_id=98708&page=2
Looking at some of the Leafs rankings they are way off. Holzer is 6th on the Leafs D?? D'Amigo is 6th LW? Scrivens is 4th in goalies?? I think that those rankings is messed royally.
Well, If you're going to "Blow it Up", trading Toskala makes sense, especially with Pogge looking so good right now. For a fan that wants to see the team dismantled, I can understand why they'd want him traded.
- RogerRoeper
http://www.hockeybuzz.com...thread.php?thread_id=1276
leafs sign the second leading scorer in the league
.............of the AHL C - Erik Westrum..good signing..if he pans out
- wolfpacns
http://www.hockeybuzz.com...read.php?thread_id=117411
i think Leivo and D'amigo get the best opportunity next season
It was Bibeau being named the QMJHL Playoff MVP that I was thinking of
so leafs prospects are winning awards .. OHL mvp, SHL ROY, QMJHL Playoff MVP
dont think that happened much before.
oh I wasn't aware Connor Brown not only won the scoring title, but MVP award. Interesting.
All that, combined with a team dominating the AHL, 3 players in the Mem Cup, 2 of which are still in it and playing key roles. That's a pretty good year.
Kind of makes you think, the Leafs farm system will be in good shape for the next decade.
SolidGoldBricks
Location: Robidas Island, MI
That is my point. It was not a consensus. Even in the TSN survey two scouts shifted to Laine as their 1st overall pick. But the Leafs were way too deep into Matthews to move off their earlier pan. Too bad.
TWO SCOUTS! Holy crap. I wish the Leafs would have listened to those two scouts. They really look stupid now, ignoring two whole scouts.
oy-vey put away the meth dude. we don't know that until later in the hockey season.
So 2 scouts surveyed said laine, but it's cause of the media the leafs counldnt back away from Matthews?
(frank) me this is dumb.
Yeah, 20% but they should have taken him. Leaf get a franchise center. A complete player.... Everything they need, but it's not who they should have taken.
You're shtick is amazing, never waivers. Very amazing.
- SolidGoldBricks
It was a controlled time series survey. Two scouts was a huge shift in the base. Headline kept the Matthews pump in place causing some people to believe he was the consensus pick. but if you checked in the body of the story it was apparent that the consensus had been downgraded. Laine had all the momentum coming into the draft. But way too much credibility had been spent on Matthews. He is a good hockey player and he will be fine. But Leafs will regret not taking the superstar.
I would have taken Matthews because you want the #1 centre. But still have to look at Laine and think the Leafs did not go after a guy that might the best pure goal scorer since Ovechkin.
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/boards/thread.php?thread_id=98708&page=2
- D0PPELGANGER
WOW, look at all that over reaction.... Almost like lazar is a superstar and puempel is a stud and chabot is a superstar and brown doesn't suck.
Classic hb, here's a post that proves my point (yet misses the mark wildly)
So? Matthews a very good scorer in his own right.... And had been compared to the likes of kopitar.
But, I really like Prock. He is consistent and committed to his mission. He does not whine and snivel like most of the Leaf posters. He never explains or apologizes. He is ruthlessly skeptical and critical. He proof texts all his information and data into selective prompts. I really enjoy his stuff.
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Our counselor, Maryann, has worked with sexually exploited women for over a decade. Her practice, Strive Counseling, has loved our community well and walked alongside each our our residents in one of the most important aspects of this journey – emotional healing.
In this episode, she shares how BeLoved has impacted her + what sets our program apart.


The number of photo and video based apps on the App Store is literally insane. The store contains a huge number of quality offerings that not only bring the ability to capture and edit photos and video but also share them with the world through vast networks of followers who have a deep passion for photography and video making. PureShot for iPhone and iPad makes a brave move by stepping away from the filter phenomenon and deciding to concentrate purely on digital photo capture with the intention being to do so with the highest technical quality possible.
Rather than offering the ability to capture an image and then process and edit that image through the app with the usual cropping and visual editing tools; PureShot makes its way in the world by simply being an app that exists to squeeze every possible last piece of quality out of the embedded camera on whatever iOS device it is being used on. The captured photographs can then be opened up in third-party apps for editing if required, or exported directly to a computer for touching up on professional editing suites. PureShot does the technical work and leaves the artistic stuff to others.
Although the app is built around a fairly simplistic and easy to follow user-interface, it manages to pack in quite a lot of hidden power that comes through the configurable options included within. Comprehensive on-screen information is presented to the user at all times to enable them to capture the best possible photo of their chosen target. The user also has control over various aspects of how the app performs such as being able to configure the soft shutter mechanisms as well as flicking Night Mode on or off and choosing between image quality settings like HI_Quality JPEGs or dRAW TIFF outputs.
The developers have had the foresight to include a fairly comprehensive usage manual within PureShot that should allow beginners to get their heads around the technical aspects of photography and get up to speed with the app. The quality-optimized 6X zoom, multi-zone or positionable spot-metering and real-time ISO, shutter-speed and GPS information definitely makes PureShot one of the best non-editing photography apps available for iOS.


It is amplified at the top, by a weak and insecure President who bullies, seeks to humiliate and cares too much about the appearance of power while knowing too little about how American Presidents cultivate and exercise the authority brought by their office. Our President is both our head of government and our head of state- our prime minister and our king. Trump is a weak and ineffective head of government and an utter failure as our head of state. It is the complete absence of that unifying position of head of state that endangers America fundamentally today. America is not a flag, a wall, a building or even a place, but a vision, a mission, and finally a feeling about a way we should relate to each other in good times and bad.
Our awful head of state challenges us to rise above the policy disagreements of the moment and remember the vision of America. Martin Luther King quoting the 19th century Unitarian minister Theodore Parker often said that: "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice." That arc of justice led Thomas Jefferson to state that humans all "are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness…." Jefferson's Declaration left out women, African Americans, Native Americans and others, but I believe that Dr. King's long arc of the moral universe is taking care of that.
Even the shameless man in the White House cannot stop the long arc of progress. No walls, tweets, or nervous nasty pronouncements can defeat that vision. The evil of ISIS, the authoritarianism of Putin, the horror of neo Nazis and the racism and xenophobia now in vogue will be defeated in our time as it was defeated in the too recent past. It will lose, because we are better than that. People the world over are better than that.
We should not and cannot ignore evil, but it is sometimes best to combat it by remembering who we are and what we are. Our society and culture struggles, but we are more honest in our interpersonal relations than we were in the past. That honesty has required us to be more tolerant of differences but more vigilant of the abuse of power. The Me Too movement is about the abuse of power in interpersonal relations. The Gay Rights movement is about learning to accept different definitions of sexuality and to not only be tolerant of those differences, but to learn to love and see the beauty in them. Feminism is about redefining the power relationship between men and woman, but it is also about rethinking the social definition we have given to gender. The civil rights movement is and has been about making some forms of racism illegal, but it is also about delegitimizing relating to people on the basis of race alone. All of this is to say that modern American culture and society continues the long and slow evolution that began when this nation began. Slow social progress is hard-wired into our culture and it is part of how we define ourselves.
The people who want a wall, or want to keep outsiders out have always been here. They made it impossible for FDR to offer sanctuary to Holocaust survivors and often made life miserable for many immigrants in many places. But more generous and tolerant people have also always been here. Americans often lend a helping hand. A half century ago they headed south to promote integration and got beaten up trying to register black voters. Neighbors help neighbors when times are tough. You see it after storms, you see it whenever there is danger. You see it as communities reach out to help federal workers during this long government shut down.
The two alternative universes of red America and blue America have far more in common than they seem to know. It is time to focus our attention beyond these differences and focus on the far greater areas of agreement. At the start of his national political career, Barack Obama urged us to see beyond red states and blue states, to a vision of the United States. While he had more success than he is given credit for in his service as a unifying head of state, the permanent business of partisan divide gave him very little chance to achieve his initial vision. From time to time he reminded us of our shared beliefs and culture, but too often his efforts were set aside in order to maintain the venom that so many seem to make their living off of these days.
This hatred in the air is a money-making business. From Fox to MSNBC, from the NRA to Moveon.org- I won't cast blame here, and it's obvious where my sympathies lie, but the dysfunction is the result of lots of money spent on propaganda and lobbying. And I am neither arguing for a new organization nor an ad campaign. I am offering something different. A reminder of our common values and the need to protect those values.
We may disagree about the definition of the right to bear arms, but we all believe in freedom of speech. We may have different forms of family values, but we all love and cherish our families. We may not think the welfare state is a good thing, but most of us will feed a hungry child if we find one in need. It's a little like the scene at the end of a sporting event. People who were going at it intensely five minutes ago, hug each other and congratulate each other for the quality of the competition. We need to get back to that sense of civility. Chris Matthews wrote a great book about Tip O'Neil and Ronald Reagan's political competition and close personal relationship. When Reagan was shot, his friend Tip went to the hospital to pray for him. Many of us have read about Justice Scalia and Justice Ginsberg's close friendship and shared love of opera.
We need to work harder at discarding our political differences in the interest of discovering our common humanity. Those of us who have dealt with ailing parents have a sad but common frame of reference. Those with the blessings of healthy children and the challenges of children who are ill all share in the joy and burdens of nurturing the next generation. We share the pleasure of watching our children grow and have children of their own and we worry about the world our grandchildren will come of age in. It is time to resume the conversation about what we share and how we differ and remember how to listen and learn from each other.
You may like Donald Trump and think that he is a misunderstood man who is only trying to make America great again. You and I will disagree about that. But let's get past Trump and think about what we have in common and what problems we both believe America needs to address. You may not worry about climate change and I may not be afraid of immigration, but I am sure we get stuck in the same traffic jams, breathe the same air, and drink the same water. Someday we might end up sharing the same hospital room and eat the same institutional food.
The air in America is filled with hatred, and it doesn't need to be. I have a doctorate in political science, but that doesn't mean I need to let politics define me. We need to put politics aside and take to heart America's motto since 1782, "E pluribus unum" Which is Latin for "Out of many, one". Many races, different religions and varied customs- but one nation.
Dear Steven. Your article was very powerful, and I agree with everything you said. I hope you have touched the hearts of the rest of our citizens as deeply as you have touched mine.
Incredible peaceful thought-provoking read. A message this country desperately needs reminding about.
Your writing is a sanctuary in a messy confusing media sea. Thank you for providing the broad view clarity so needed today.


The New York State Police in Wilton have arrested Eric J. Rosenbrock, 35, of Corinth, New York, for Manslaughter 2nd degree stemming from the November 15, 2018 shooting death of his wife, 34-year-old Ashley Rosenbrock, at their residence on Raymond Street in Corinth, New York.
Police say Rosenbrock was performing maintenance on his 9mm handgun in the living room when a round was discharged, striking Ashley in the torso. She later died at the hospital from the injuries sustained from the gunshot would.
On February 11, 2019, Eric Rosenbrock turned himself in to the Wilton Barracks was processed and arraigned in Wilton Town Court and released to his attorney.