text:
forecastingintelligence
Revenge of the Gammons
UK general election final forecast
UK General Election forecast – update
UK General Election forecast
Political betting alert: Scottish Conservative election gain opportunity
David Collins on Revenge of the Gammons
forecastingintellige… on Brexit update: Caesars, high s…
Weiss-Nix on Brexit update: Caesars, high s…
Civil disorder
Islamic terrorism
January 2, 2020 January 2, 2020 forecastingintelligence1 Comment
Sky News Exit Poll
"Like Trump, Johnson realized that his nation's leftward party had abandoned its working-class voters in order to pander to the comfortable classes. He went to the working class voters Labour had abandoned and spoke to them about the issues that concerned them—above all, an end to the open borders and free trade agreements that drove down working class wages in order to boost middle class salaries and investment class profits—and found them more than willing to listen."
John Michael Greer, "To the shores of a surging ocean"
""I have absolutely no doubt that if you have a right-wing populism against a left-wing populism in this country, the right-wing will win."
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair (April 2019), "Tony Blair says Corbyn would lose next general election if Boris Johnson becomes Tory leader"
The last Labour Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, was reported to have warned during the dying days of Labour government that if they let the Tories into power the Labour party would never get back in. Disappointed Labour supporters might feel that this prophecy is coming true after another shattering defeat on 13th December 2019.
The Tories made sweeping gains across the Red Wall, the old Labour Leave voting strongholds across Wales, Midlands and the North. The eventual vote tally surpassed my baseline prediction of a comfortable Tory majority and pushed it closer to a 1987 scenario which I warned could happen in my last post.
Overall, despite the poor performance of the Scottish Conservatives, I am reasonably happy with my forecast. It captured, unlike some commentators, the sizable Tory majority and I never ruled out the possibility that the Tories could be heading towards a larger majority along the lines of Thatcher's 1987 victory.
The Scottish Conservatives fiasco is an interesting one. Up to a week or so before the election, all the signs, including from within the SNP camp, was that the Scottish Conservatives were making inroads into keeping the bulk of their seats. The SNP strategy to focus on independence over Brexit was proving a mistake among Unionist voters.
What I didn't fully realise was that Nicola Sturgeon decision to pivot from indyref2 to prioritising stopping Brexit in the last week of the campaign probably did enough to ensure that left-wing Unionist Labour voters would swing to the SNP over the Tories. The lesson from that is not to under-estimate the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon!
So, what was the main lesson from this election? I would argue that it was the electoral revenge of the so-called gammon voters. The term gammon has become popularised by a rather toxic set of upper-middle class social justice warriors to describe working to lower-middle class white middle-aged men with slightly reddish complexion.
These voters tend not to have a university education, have worked in manual jobs or are self-employed and have socially conservative views. They historically have voted Labour but have been drifting away since the early 2000s to the Tories, UKIP/Brexit Party or not voting at all. This key voting demographic, who tend to live in the Red Wall, was referred to by a Tory think-tank as Workington Man and provided Boris with his stunning majority.
There has been a ferocious post-election debate within the Labour party on what was to blame for Labour's defeat. Some have argued that neither Corbyn or his policies were at fault but rather Labour's Brexit position.
The problem with that argument is that Corbyn's personal ratings had been consistently grim for months prior to the election. Popular perceptions of his fitness to run the country, manage the economy or keep Britain safe were abysmal. As I noted in my last post elections are inherently presidential affairs and the majority of the public had concluded Corbyn was not up to the job.
As for Labour's super-radical manifesto, the reaction in focus groups was dismissive laughter when Labour's policies were read out. People simple didn't take it seriously. Labour would have been far better keeping to a more centre-left (albeit still radical) 2017 policy manifesto with a few key pledges that sounded vaguely feasible should they get into office.
Labour's defeat had its roots in the aftermath of that June 2017 campaign. Despite the fact that the Tories clung onto office, the Tories underwent the political equivalent of a near-death experience. The recriminations were brutal and a forensic process started in Tory HQ on what went wrong. Yet, it must be stressed that Theresa May managed, despite the abysmal campaign, to get over 40% of the vote and gain marginal seats like Mansfield.
Labour, on the other hand, had a very different reaction to another electoral defeat against the worst Tory leader in living memory. They went on a political equivalent of a 24 hour cultish party where Jeremy Corbyn became a secular Messiah to the chants of "Oh Jeremy Corbyn". There were no tough questions on why Labour failed to get more votes and what they needed to do to give them a better chance of converting some of those Tory voters into Labour at the next general election.
In an alternative history, Corbyn might have moved to neutralise his historical "baggage" – e.g. the historic associations with IRA, Islamists and so on – through an apology or acknowledging that he had made mistakes in the past. Along with a tougher position on law-and order, national security and Brexit, that might have been enough to persuade some voters to give him a chance. It was those "gammon" voters who were most suspicious of Corbyn. The failure of Labour to deal with their weaknesses proved fatal in the winter of 2019.
There is no doubt that Labour's flip-flopping over Brexit irritated both Remain and Leave Labour voters across the country. Still, I would argue that by shifting to an official second referendum position, Labour lost the support of Leave voters (those "gammon" voters) across their traditional heartlands which proved fatal in the December election. Brexit was only one, admittedly big issue, which encapsulated a deeper sense among Leave voters that Corbyn's Labour party did not share their values, their patriotic love of the country or their economic interests.
Now, the Tories have the opportunity to convert this new cross-class electoral coalition of the small shires, suburbs and towns across England and Wales (outside the big urban cities) into a new era of Tory hegemony. Already, it is looking likely that the Tories will rule for the entirely of the 2020's given the scale of the swing needed for Labour to get into power.
This article brilliantly explains how the Tories have transformed their position and what a dire position Labour is now in. As the writer notes, "Brexit is a sign of the times, a glimpse of the future but the progressive mind can only see it as reactionary, nostalgic and backward looking. The decisive role of the working class in asserting national sovereignty through its democratic vote in order to renew the ancient institutions of Parliament and the common law is incomprehensible to the left."
By embracing a hard Brexit, with the clear commitment to ending free movement, the Tories signalled to the working classes that they could be entrusted with their vote. As Greer notes, Brexit was driven by the bottom 80% of voters who had been economically hit by the impact of mass movement of EU workers into the UK which effectively capped their wages over the preceding 15 years. It's not a coincidence that real wage growth for the working classes has only picked up since 2016 as the supply of foreign workers dropped after the referendum result.
I will be writing my 2020 forecasts soon but one thing is clear, the shock waves of Boris stunning political victory will have ramifications for America. Should the Democrats run on a left-wing "woke" policy platform they will struggle to win over Middle America in November 2020. However, much voters wince at President Trump's tweets, his vulgar and at times unpresidential behaviour, they will be unlikely to turn over the White House to a far-left Democrat radical.
The Tories crushing victory in 2019 may prove, as Michael Bloomberg warned his fellow Democrats, a canary in the mine for the Democrats this year.
I will be posting my 2020 forecasts soon and look forward to any feedback you might have.
All the best and a Happy New Year to all my readers.
December 11, 2019 January 2, 2020 forecastingintelligenceLeave a comment
"On the @YouGov MRP: it puts Tory seats midpoint at 339, vs 310 in 2017, when the result was 318; similar accuracy this time would mean 347 seats, majority of 44"
John Rentoul tweet (10 December 2019)
The British people are the brink of deciding the fate of this great country.
The polls indicate that the most likely outcome is a Conservative majority, although the scale of undecided voters out there suggests either a hung parliament or Tory landslide remain outlier outcomes. The YouGov MRP poll, which came closest to accurately forecasting the June 2017 election, released last night its updated forecast of a Tory seat tally of 339*. This is within the ballpark of other pollsters and election models.
*- a party requires 326 seats to have a majority in the House of Commons.
Should this election come down to a presidential-style choice between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, there is only one winner. Boris Johnson.
Corbyn's net satisfaction ratings are horrendous even factoring in that Boris is also relatively unpopular compared to previous leader's comparisons. This guarantees that the Tories are the largest party but not necessarily that the Tories will win an outright majority.
One of the myths of 2017 was that the pollsters never saw the hung parliament outcome coming. That is factually incorrect. Some of the pollsters did. At the time, I worked for a major private bank who predicted, based on the public polls available, a hung parliament outcome. Therefore, it is significant that the polling overwhelmingly indicates a tiny/small Tory majority to a landslide victory.
My final election forecast is the following:
Cons 344
BxP 0
SNP 34
I have increased the tally of Scottish Tories seats from 9 (YouGov forecast) to 17, which in turn bumps up the overall Tory seat tally, taking into consideration a further tightening in the polls since the YouGov poll was published.
The YouGov forecast in 2017 did not anticipate the huge surge in Unionist tactical voting in marginal seats across Scotland, which meant that the Scottish Tories gained double the expected seat tally in the actual election. I suspect that something similar will happen this time around.
Ian Smart, who accurately forecast the 2017 general election result in Scotland, is predicting the following outcome in this general election.
Ian Smart blog
Whilst this is my baseline prediction, I do think there is a risk of a late surge by undecided voters, which could destroy that Tory majority dream. The shift this week from Brexit to the NHS has helped solidify the Labour vote and the odd reaction of Boris Johnson to the picture of the boy in the hospital has damaged the Tories among Labour Leave and undecided voters.
Nadeem Walayat, a forecaster who accurately predicted Trump, Brexit and the 2015 general election, is forecasting a Tory seat tally of 326. That would be a Tory majority of one.
Alternatively, the message of "get Brexit done" could ensure the Tories do better than expected, pushing them towards landslide territory. Anecdotally there is talk of lots of "shy Tory" voters in the red wall so we could see bigger Tory swings across the Midlands and the North than the polls are picking up. Undecided Tory Remain voters are also apparently slowly shifting to the Tories. The tightening of the polls will likely scare more undecided Tory Remainers and soft Liberal/Tory voters to voting Tory to keep out Jeremy Corbyn.
My lack of a strong conviction, coupled by the poor betting odds, is why I have not recommended attempting to bet on the Tory seat tally in this election. You should only bet when you have a strong conviction in your call.
Therefore, I am sticking with my forecast of a good performance by the Scottish Tories but have ditched my earlier forecast of the Liberals sweeping across central London. Jo Swinson's disastrous campaign and the late surge to Labour among Remain voters has put an end to that Liberal dream.
We will see whether this forecast turns out to be true tomorrow evening.
November 24, 2019 forecastingintelligenceLeave a comment
"On Monday of this week, the man some people have begun referring to as "Dr. Doom" sits in a German restaurant in London, stares at his coffee and says, "I wish I hadn't been right."
Then he offers another prophecy: "I suspect we might have Boris Johnson for 10 years, maybe longer."
De Spiegel interview with the former British ambassador Sir Ivan Rogers
We are nearly half way through this general election and it seems like a good time to provide an update on where we are heading.
In 2016, I wrote that "the Conservative Party is moving to bring on-board Labour voters, just as Donald Trump is doing with blue-collar Democratic voters, in the United States. You may hear a lot more in the coming years of the May Labourites and how they will bring an electoral landslide for the Tories at the next general election." The Tories under the than Prime Minister May were embracing the rhetoric of a centre-left economic policy agenda and as a consequence enjoyed soaring polling ratings.
We know what happened next. That rhetoric failed to be converted into policy. The June 2017 snap general election was a disaster for the Tories and resulted in a hung parliament.
This time round, under their new leader Boris Johnson, it looks like the Tories have a better chance of capturing those ex-Labour blue-collar voters in the election on 12th December 2019. Current polling shows the Tories ahead with a 14% lead in the national polling
Labour's policy manifesto published earlier this week was a radical socialist programme which would overturn the 1979 political economy. The numbers involved are eye watering and it is questionable how credible much of the proposed policies are, whether in terms of their implementation or costings.
Focus group feedback indicate that this, far more radical manifesto, simply fails to pass "the smell test" with voters. The proposed four-day week idea, in particular, goes down badly with voters. Labour have missed the lesson of 2017 – yes to radical change of the status quo but it must be done in a way that is sellable on the doorstep and comes across as "credible" to the wider electorate.
The Tories, in contrast, have smartly learned the lessons of their electoral near-death experience in 2017. They have ditched the commitments to austerity and have promised significant investment across public services and infrastructure. The key retail propositions have been tested to destruction with focus groups and their overarching message of "get Brexit done" was literally copied from feedback from disgruntled voters. The Tory campaign has been disciplined, ruthless and much better focused on their key target seats.
One metric I am following closely is the net satisfaction in leaders' ratings. This FT chart shows the huge gulf between the two leaders and the Tories need to maintain that healthy lead in the coming two weeks.
A recent poll suggests that gap is narrowing which, if replicated in other polls, could be a worrying sign for the Tories. However, it could also be an outlier. We will only know once we see further polling in the coming days and weeks. I suspect that the radical Labour manifesto could be having the impact of energising Labour's core vote even if it hardens existing negative views of Corbyn among the wider electorate.
Political betting.com
As Eurointelligence noted recently, "the purpose of this manifesto is to fire up the Labour grassroots. We think it might succeed on that score. It is smart politics for Labour to vacate the centre ground and focus on turnout." The risk of that strategy will be to turn soft Labour voters against the party even if it succeeds in raising the turnout figures for the core demographics of the Labour voting base. Until we see further polls in the coming weeks it will be difficult to precisely forecast whether Labour's strategy is working or not.
So, to summarise, I'm sticking with my forecast that the Tories should get a solid comfortable majority on 12th December 2019 of 347 seats.
Scottish Conservatives seat tally update
For those readers who took up my advice and placed the bets of the Scottish Conservatives getting a vote tally of between 11 and 15 and 16 plus, things are looking good. The first Scottish poll in a month indicates that the Scottish Conservatives will lose one seat (Stirling) to the Scottish National Party (SNP). This is contrary to the widespread assumption that the Tories would get wiped out at the general election.
Note, though, that the seat projection is based on national polling and doesn't factor in potential Unionist tactical voting in those marginal Tory-SNP seats. If that occurs, which is what is predicted by the Scottish Labour writer Ian Smart, then the Tories will increase their seat tally in Scotland.
The odds of the Scottish Tories getting over 16 seats is now crashing. A £25 bet would now return "only" £275 rather than over £400 when I recommended the trade a few weeks ago. I expect those odds to narrow further as we get closer to the election as it is clear that momentum is with the Scottish Conservatives.
It looks likely that the Tories will reach at least the seat tally of between 11 and 15 which will yield a nice profit for those who took the bet. And the prospects of a blow-up rise of their seat tally to 16 or more is increasingly promising.
As always, I look forward to receiving any feedback you might have on my analysis. Stay tuned!
November 12, 2019 November 12, 2019 forecastingintelligenceLeave a comment
This general election is likely to be the most consequential since 1979 when Margaret Thatcher swept to power. The fate of Brexit hangs on the outcome.
If the Tories win a majority Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be able to pass the withdrawal treaty and the United Kingdom will legally leave the European Union (EU). Should the result be a hung parliament, Brexit itself will be in doubt and the possibility of a Labour government looks very likely.
The election of Jeremy Corbyn into 10 Downing Street would be a transformational moment in British, and indeed, global politics. A man firmly on the radical left of politics would be in the driving seat of one of the major great powers.
So, what are my thoughts, with a huge caveat that there are 4 weeks to go, on the election so far.
Looking at the polls, which give a reasonable indication of where we are, the Tories have maintained a national lead of over 11% so far. This could change, given that the manifestos and debates haven't occurred yet, but so far there seems to be a consistent pattern of the consolidation of both the Labour and Tory vote vis v vs the smaller parties (Brexit Party, Greens and the Lib Dems).
The national polling hides distinct regional variations, and to a certain extent you should view this election as a series of regional contests.
One of the most reliable means of working out who the eventual winner is in terms of leader's metrics.
The New Statesman recently noted that the only meaningful change since the campaign started was that Boris Johnson had become less unpopular whilst Corbyn's dire personal ratings remained the same. That is good news for the Tories since it implies that their lead over Labour is more solid then many jittery commentators think.
The British political class are still shaken by the May 2017 general election when Labour surged in the polls once campaigning started. The risk is that commentators have the 2017 model in their head when they should be thinking of different scenarios.
The 2017 scenario is that Labour and Corbyn's polling will surge during the coming weeks and ruin any prospect of a Tory majority. That remains a possibility although there is limited sign of it to date.
An alternative scenario is 2015, where the Tories were very nervous amid a consensus that Britain was heading towards a hung parliament. In the end the Tories won a slim majority to the shock of pollsters and commentators alike.
A few have posited a 1987 scenario, where, again, the national polling suggested that the Tories would win a large majority which, in the end, they did.
I have already posted why I think the Scottish Conservatives could do better than expected north of Hadrian's Wall in this election. For those who wish to read about the asymmetrical betting opportunities click here.
Here are my mini-predictions on the shock results that are likely to happen on the 12th December:
The Scottish Conservatives will increase their seat tally as marginal SNP seats turn blue on the back of wider Unionist tactical voting.
The Liberal Democrats will do better than expected in ultra-Remain central London with Richmond, Kensington and potentially even allegedly "safe" seats like Labour held Islington falling to the Liberals.
There is also a risk that Boris Johnson might lose his seat on the night which would cause a political earthquake if it occurred.
In terms of the wider political landscape, I expect that the Tories will make patchy gains in Wales, Yorkshire and the north of England. However, a mix of Labour tribalism, the Brexit Party and the failure of Boris to fully "seal the deal" with the electorate will ensure that there won't be a transformational realignment from Labour to the Tories.
The south may prove a bruising night for the Tories, in particular uber-Remain, middle class enclaves which, whilst traditionally Tory, will fall to the Liberal Democrats. In other seats, a combination of factors, including the Brexit Party withdrawing, the fear of a hard-left Labour government and local Tory support should save local Tory candidates from a swing to the Liberals.
So, overall, my tentative conclusion – which I may update as the campaign evolves – is that the Tories are on course to win approximately 347 seats. This will give them circa 20 seat majority in the House of Commons.
November 7, 2019 forecastingintelligenceLeave a comment
As I'm sure many of my readers are aware, a general election is looming in the United Kingdom, on the 12th December 2019.
After the humbling experience of 2017, where I failed to forecast the hung parliament that resulted (although I wasn't alone in that failure!), this will prove a difficult election to call. The polls indicate, so far, that the Tories are leading with approximately 11% of the vote compared to the Labour party but these are early days (literally) in the campaign.
One area where I do have a stronger conviction on what the likely eventual outcome will be is in Scotland.
The commentariat took the view that the SNP would sweep the board in the June 2017 campaign but this turned out to be wrong. The Tories, supported by industrial levels of tactical voting won numerous seats from the SNP.
One of the few Scottish commentators who successfully forecast this result was a Scottish Labour supporter called Ian Smart. Here is his snapshot of his forecast just prior to the June 2017 election:
He has just completed his blog post on where he thinks this election will go and he is forecasting, contrary to nearly everybody else, that the Tories will gain seats in this election. You can read his blog post here.
Given his track record, and in my opinion his compelling argument that the Unionists will come out, again, to frustrate the SNP push for a 2nd referendum during this campaign, this is worthy of a small asymmetrical bet.
As a disclaimer, political betting is about probabilities and there is no guarantee that you will make profit from taking bets. You should only bet on what you can afford to lose.
The Scottish Conservatives currently have 13 MP's and they are widely considered, after the loss of their charismatic leader Ruth Davidson to be in for a drubbing. This is therefore a high-risk trade.
I would recommend that you place small deposits on two potential outcomes which look likely if Ian Smart forecast (as of now) comes true or anywhere near it. Smart is currently forecasting that the Scottish Conservatives will gain 4 seats, taking their overall tally of MP's to 17. A major caveat is that this might change as the campaign evolves.
The UK political betting website Coral is the only firm, at least as far as I can find, that offers betting opportunities on the size of the Scottish Conservatives seats tally.
So, to conclude, the worst-case scenario is that the Scottish Tories fail to get 11 MP's and you will lose £50. Should the Tories get between 11 to 15 seats, you will make a overall return (minus the £25 lost on the 16 plus bet) of £125.
Should the Scottish Tories do as well as Ian is saying in his blog, you will see a return of £400 (factoring in your loss of deposit of £25 on the 11-15 bet).
For me, this is a political betting opportunity worth taking but of course this is entirely up to you.
I also must remind readers that they need to check whether political betting is legal in their country of residence.
The Coral betting company is easy to register with. Note that there appears to be restrictions on how much you can bet on the 16 to 1 odds and I could only bet a maximum of £25.
I will be writing a full blog post this month of my thoughts on the likely outcome of this general election.
As always, I look forward to any feedback you can give on my writings.
Book review: The Second Sleep by Robert Harris
October 7, 2019 forecastingintelligenceLeave a comment
"All civilisations consider themselves invulnerable; history warns us that none is."
Robert Harris – The Second Sleep
"Greer sees the scientific profession sowing the seeds of its own undoing. These include the profiteering machinations of the medical industry, the demonstrable lies that scientific experts regularly tell the public, the verbal abuse that outspoken atheists within the scientific community hurl at people of faith and the toxic legacy that industrialism is leaving for future generations.
Even without these considerable downsides to modern-day science, scientific research would still have a tough go of it, since the resources on which it depends will be desperately needed for necessities like food production and defense against barbarians. In light of all this, predicts Greer, it will be a no-brainer for communities to decide to stop funding science altogether. Greer also sees laboratories and other scientific facilities being vandalized and burned down for the betrayal of public trust that they will have come to embody."
A Review of Two Books by John Michael Greer: Dark Age America and The Retro Future by Frank Kaminski
Last month I wrote a post titled the Deep Future in which I charted the likely journey of our industrial civilisation over the course of the coming century or so as we descend into a future deindustrial Dark Ages.
Robert Harris, the brilliant British novelist, recently published a brillant novel, called The Second Sleep, which is posited in a future England after the collapse of our own civilisation in 2025. We never find out what triggered the collapse but the book hints that it was some type of global cyber-attack that brought down the internet.
Either way, the results were catastrophic for humanity. Our just-in-time (JIT) economic relationships collapsed amid the chaos, the ATM's and supermarkets went empty and as a consequence society collapsed. A mass exodus of 8 million people fled London and the other great cities; fighting, rape, starvation and massacres stalked the land as the world descended into a 150 year long Dark Ages.
The fictional world where the reader explores is over 800 years after the Apocalypse as it is referred to. As the Guardian notes in their review, 'into the void of the "Dark Age" steps a rejuvenated and dogmatic church, whose authoritarian rule and obsessive suppression of heretical "scientism" ensure that people live in brutal and backward conditions.'
I don't intend to go into any further detail about the specific plot of the novel in case any of you wish to read the novel yourself (which I strongly recommend). What I do wish to do is explore some of the themes in the novel.
The scenario Robert Harris describes is what is known within the survivalist community as a "fast crash". A sudden disaster causes chaos to our JIT systems, triggering shortages of food in our major urban centres which lead to mass panic and collapse. I used to fear that this was a likely scenario but over the years, after much reading and thinking, I've reached the conclusion that this is an unlikely fate. Whilst localised breakdown of food production and distribution are likely in the future, a global collapse is extremely unlikely given that there are many things governments can do, in an emergency, to ensure that food is requisitioned, rationed and distributed accordingly.
One should also remember that the majority of the world's population are far less dependent upon the internet and global trading networks for their daily sustenance. Still, even if Harris fictional scenario remains unlikely, you should always prepare for short-term disruption to supplies, for example in the event of a global pandemic or in the case of major civil unrest.
One of the major themes in the book is the power of organised religion in this future Britain. A common pattern during the decline periods of previous civilizations is a resurgence of organised religion which has been termed the Second Religiosity by scholars. Note that it isn't always the traditional religion that revives, after all, it was the Christians, not the legacy Pagan cult religions, that surged as the Roman Empire disintegrated.
In Harris book, it is the Church of England, with its network of thousands of churches, which act as a sanctuary after the collapse of our own civilization. Slowly, within a generation or two, the surviving descendants embrace a fundamentalist interpretation of Christianity which explains the collapse through the narrative of a sinful world destroyed by the Beast himself.
Science is distrusted and deemed heretical in this world. And who can blame them? After all, it was science and the civil religion of progress that created a high-tech civilisation that imploded with unimaginable horror, death and suffering.
In our future world a similar fate awaits science as referenced in the review of John Greer Dark Age America book at the top. Imagine the scene: its 2121, our civilisation is falling apart and enraged mobs destroy the remaining scientific establishments and hunt down scientists who are widely blamed for the nightmare unfolding. Science promised the masses eternal economic growth, flying cars, space travel and instead the world is descending into darkness.
The rise of religion also revisits another theme explored in the novel which is the reversion to medieval forms of geopolitical warfare in this far future Britain. Scotland is an independent fiefdom in a long-term war against the English.
In the north of England, the descendants of the Muslim populations who migrated to Britain in the 20th and 21st centuries formed a Northern Caliphate which is engaged in a permanent religious war against Christian England. All of the above are credible long-term possibilities should the United Kingdom disintegrate during the twilight era of our industrial civilisation.
Of course, this is a book of fiction, even if it is well researched, and it is unlikely that a far future Britain would correspond so closely with medieval England. I suspect that aspects of our late civilizational period would survive in a mutated form in a far future England. This would involve air travel (small planes for the elites), rudimentary renewable technologies, the use of ham radios and other low-tech technologies that don't require extensive petroleum inputs to function.
My Americans readers are encouraged to read John Greer's Dark Age America non-fictional book on what a deindustrial America might look like in the future. I would also recommend John Greer's Stars Reach, a fictional novel in a post-collapse American world hundreds of years from now.
Overall, the book was a gripping read and a thought provoking take on the fragility of our current era and what might take its place in the centuries to come.
Deep Future
September 15, 2019 September 15, 2019 forecastingintelligenceLeave a comment
Loco Gringo
"Like modern industrial society, the Maya built their civilization on a nonrenewable resource base. In their case it was the fertility of fragile tropical soils, which couldn't support intensive corn farming forever. On that shaky foundation they built an extraordinary civilization with fine art, architecture, astronomy, mathematics, and a calendar more accurate than the one we use today. None of that counted when the crops began to fail. Mayan civilization disintegrated, cities were abandoned to the jungle, and the population of the Mayan heartland dropped by 90%."
John Michael Greer – "The Long road down: decline and the deindustrial future"
Writing this month's post has proven a challenge. I was planning to write an update on the latest twists in the on-going Brexit saga but the truth is that it is difficult to predict the eventual outcome of this drama.
So, I changed my mind.
I hope you readers clocked the recent news story of the successful drone attack on the Abqaiq oil fields in Saudi Arabia, the second largest in Saudi Arabia. Saudi oil supply has been halved as a consequence, oil prices are expected to spike to $100 per barrel and it could take weeks to get supply back to normal.
Imagine if, instead of a few drone attacks, a far bigger attack of Saudi oil facilities occurred and the bulk of Saudi oil supply went off-line for months on end, if not, forever? Could you imagine the economic and geopolitical chaos that would result! In such a scenario you would be wise to stockpile food and other core goods if you haven't already got your secret supplies sorted.
This is a reminder of how fragile our industrial civilization is to major shocks.
I've just started reading a superb new novel, called The Second Sleep, by the brilliant British writer Robert Harris. On the surface, the novel is based in our medieval past among the ruins of the ancient Roman Empire but you realise, within a few chapters, that it is instead placed in our deep future where the Church is dominant, population is a fraction of today's and we have returned to an era of lords and peasants.
The reason I've dedicated this month's post on Forecasting Intelligence to our deep or far future is that it gives us a sense of perspective on the turmoil of our current era. I have focused on this blog on the likely challenges and trends within the next few decades given that this is what myself and you will be most concerned about since we will be living through them.
However, I probably have not covered in sufficient thought the longer-term fate of our industrial civilisation.
To start with, those readers who find this topic fascinating should read the following books, the Robert Harris one just mentioned, but also John Greer's "The Long Descent" and "The Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-peak World". They all provide an interesting fictional and non-fictional guide to the likely pattern of our own civilizational collapse and the potential future civilizations that could arise from the collapse.
Our human history has seen dozens of civilisations rise and fall and there are certain patterns that can be seen across the thread of history.
Our own industrial civilisation, as noted in the quote from a brilliant Greer article on the subject, seems to be tracking closely the Mayan civilisation which had a relatively "fast" collapse. This was because it was reliant on a non-renewable resource, fertile soil, in a similar way we are reliant on non-renewable fossil fuels.
There are not unlimited supplies of oil, gas and coal to sustain our civilisation for thousands of years to come and the consensus is that within decades we will be facing major supply problems, in particular oil.
And it isn't just fossil fuels. Phosphate is a critical fertiliser that underpins the global food system which, if continued to be consumed at current levels, will be in critical shortages by 2040. Now, I would expect a degree of mitigation, adaptation and eventually strategic restrictions on the supply to global markets of such a strategically vital resource so it is unlikely to run out within twenty years. However, it is likely, given that the world population is likely to grow for at least another decade that demand for this critical resource will continue to grow for the foreseeable future.
Major supply problems for phosphate, geopolitical tensions over access and potentially even resource wars, are looking probable by the 2040's. And that is just one non-renewable resource challenge the world is facing.
So where is all this taking us? My understanding is that our civilisation will peak, decline and collapse into a deindustrial Dark Ages within 150 years or so. Evaluating when we peaked as an industrial civilisation is a tricky art but the business-as-usual Limits to Growth modelling, which I originally reviewed here, indicates a global peak around 2020.
There are alternative arguments, that within specific countries peaks occurred earlier. Greer himself argues that the United States peaked in the late 70's in terms of energy per capita. For the sake of simplicity, I will go with a global "peak" which would indicate that our civilisation will end, 150 years from now, around 2170 AD.
How does this macro, and let's be honest, slightly terrifying analysis, translate into our lives and perhaps more importantly our children and grandchildren who will bear the burden of handling this descent into a future Dark Ages?
This beautiful quote from John Greer describes the fate of a three generational American family over the next 150 years or so and it is a good description of any on our future destiny.
"Imagine an American woman born in 1960. She sees the gas lines of the 1970s, the short-term political gimmicks that papered over the crisis in the 1980s and 1990s, and renewed trouble in the following decades. Soaring energy prices, shortages, economic depressions, and resource wars shape the rest of her life. By age 70, she lives in a beleaguered, malfunctioning city where half the population has no reliable access to clean water, electricity, or health care. Shantytowns spread in the shadow of skyscrapers while political and economic leaders keep insisting that things are getting better.
Her great-grandson, born in 2030, manages to avoid the smorgasbord of diseases, the pervasive violence, and the pandemic alcohol and drug abuse that claim half of his generation before age 30. A lucky break gets him into a technical career, safe from military service in endless wars overseas or "pacification actions" against separatist guerrillas at home. His technical knowledge consists mostly of rules of thumb for effective scavenging, cars and refrigerators are luxury items he will never own, his home lacks electricity and central heating, and his health care comes from an old woman whose grandmother was a doctor and who knows something about wound care and herbs. By the time his hair turns gray the squabbling regions that were once the United States have split apart, all remaining fuel and electrical power have been commandeered by the new governments, and coastal cities are being abandoned to the rising oceans.
For his great-granddaughter, born in 2100, the great crises are mostly things of the past. She grows up amid a ring of sparsely populated villages surrounding an abandoned core of rusting skyscrapers visited only by salvage crews who mine them for raw materials. Local wars sputter, the oceans are still rising, and famines and epidemics are a familiar reality, but with global population maybe 15% of what it was in 2000, humanity and nature are moving toward balance. She learns to read and write, a skill most of her neighbors don't have, and a few old books are among her prized possessions, but the days when men walked on the moon are fading into legend. When she and her family finally set out for a village in the countryside, leaving the husk of the old city to the salvage crews, it never occurs to her that her quiet footsteps on a crumbling asphalt road mark the end of a civilization."
Only a lucky few, will escape the burden of poverty within neo-feudal conditions a century or so from now when our future descendants take the path described by John in the early 21st century away from the ruined cities to the villages.
In a world of warlords, military strongmen and neo-feudal aristocrats who own the future means of production (arable farmland, mines and traditional property in our towns and cities) it will be challenging, to say the least, to carve a profitable niche for our future families.
It is not impossible though. And it has been done before.
For those inclined, I would recommend acquiring arable farming land and good quality traditional property stock (e.g. pre 19th century) within those places within the world more likely to survive the coming collapse largely intact.
That could be in central-eastern Europe, Canada or parts of the far East. I would probably avoid the bulk of central America, north Africa and the greater Middle East, along with southern Europe and India given the likelihood that these areas of the world will be rendered uninhabitable by climate change or hugely impacted by the climate migrations, violence and chaos coming.
For those whose ambitions are more modest (and probably more sensible as a result), I would stick to the tips outlined recently in my post on the coming collapse of market economies. Most importantly, the key is to be useful in a world of the future and that will acquire learning, or to be precise re-learning, skills and traditions that have been lost in the developed world.


text:
Q: Conflict between disk and memory version of code Practically each major change I make in Android Studio is reverted.
I've a kind of backup file named <originalFilemane>_conflict-<datetime>.<ext> where I can find my changes.
Why Android Studio is doing this ?

A: It is due to a bad habit!
I should stop doing ⌘ + S on IntelliJ derived editors.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Ice Aquarium in Kesennuma, Japan
By When On Earth
Over 400 frozen specimen of marine life deck the halls of an ever wintry room called the Kori no Suizokukan or the Ice Aquarium.
Located inside the Uminoichi Seafood Market in Kesennuma, Japan, this bizarre exhibition showcases the bay's wide range of exotic underwater species petrified within huge blocks of ice.
It was through the use of flash-freezing technology that these sea creatures were able to be frozen in a "fresh" state—that is, posed in lifelike manners that seems like they've been suspended in time while they were swimming or doing their ordinary underwater routines.
The gallery is open to all visitors, who have to wear warm, protective clothing before they enter the ice exhibit. The room temperature can reach below 20 degrees Celsius (-5 degrees Fahrenheit) to preserve the specimen's "freshness".
The Kori no Suizokukan opened in 2002 as part of the Okamoto Original Ice Art movement, which explores ice as a medium of artistic expression. Also featured in the museum are unusual things such as a chunk of ice from Antarctica.
There's also a shop offering toys, figurines, and flowers trapped in ice, which can actually be bought as gifts for Father's Day, Mother's Day, birthdays and Christmas. Ice sculpting services (a hit for weddings) are also available in the museum.
When On Earth
Ilha de Queimada Grande: Brazil's Forbidden and Deadly Snake Island
The Merry Cemetery in Săpânța, Romania

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


From August 19 to August 22, 2014 in Tula, in SK Royal Hotel Tula hotel the first educational session for children of 12-14 years RSPP Business School for the Young took place. The event was held with personal support of the governor of Tula region Vladimir Gruzdev and the Government of Tula region.The program of business session is developed so that children can easily acquire the material, gain knowledge from practicing business coaches and authorities of Tula region. The received skills and knowledge are reinforced in the course of business games, and in completion of the session, under the sensitive guidance of mentors in the person of experts- investors, the children will defend their own projects in teams before the commission of experts. The first commission of experts included: Vladimir Gruzdev, Governor of Tula region; Sergey Kazakov, the chairman of regional office of RSPP in Tula region; Oleg Kalinsky, director of Fund of development of the pipe industry; Evgenia Shokhina, member of Civic chamber of the Moscow region, president of RSPP Business school.
The enrolment was carried out on a competitive basis. On July 28 via the broadcast on regional television of Tula region and in news the start was given to the competition of compositions on the theme "Why I love the region where I live". The press release on the start of competition was also published on the site of the Ministry of Tula region and dispatched in schools. It was initially planned to create a group of 15 people, but the commission of experts stopped the choice on authors of 22 compositions.
In spite of the fact that the age of participants varies in the range from 12 till 14 years, the jury couldn't resist 11-year-old Alyokhin Anton's composition and he too was chosen to train together with all children at the RSPP Business School of the Young.


Dialyzer is a tool that does static analysis of your erlang code. It's great for identifying type errors and unreachable code. Here's how to use it from the command line.
Pretty simple! PATH/TO/APP should be an erlang application directory containing your ebin/ and/or src/ directories. PATH/TO/INCLUDE should be a path to a directory that contains any .hrl files that need to be included. The -I is optional if you have no include files. You can have as many -r and -I options as you need. If you add -q, then dialyzer runs more quietly, succeeding silently or reporting any errors found.
If you have a test/ directory with Common Test suites, then you'll want to add "-I /usr/lib/erlang/lib/test_server*/include/" and "-I /usr/lib/erlang/lib/common_test*/include/". I've actually set this up in my Makefile to run as make check. It's been great for catching bad return types, misspellings, and wrong function parameters.


text:
package brooklyn.event.feed.windows;

import org.slf4j.Logger;
import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
import org.testng.annotations.Test;

import java.util.Iterator;

import static org.testng.Assert.*;

public class WindowsPerformanceCounterFeedTest {

    private static final Logger log = LoggerFactory.getLogger(WindowsPerformanceCounterFeedTest.class);

    @Test
    public void testIteratorWithSingleValue() {
        Iterator iterator = new WindowsPerformanceCounterFeed
                .PerfCounterValueIterator("\"10/14/2013 15:28:24.406\",\"0.000000\"");
        assertTrue(iterator.hasNext());
        assertEquals(iterator.next(), "0.000000");
        assertFalse(iterator.hasNext());
    }

    @Test
    public void testIteratorWithMultipleValues() {
        Iterator iterator = new WindowsPerformanceCounterFeed
                .PerfCounterValueIterator("\"10/14/2013 15:35:50.582\",\"8803.000000\",\"405622.000000\"");
        assertTrue(iterator.hasNext());
        assertEquals(iterator.next(), "8803.000000");
        assertTrue(iterator.hasNext());
        assertEquals(iterator.next(), "405622.000000");
        assertFalse(iterator.hasNext());
    }

}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
10 October 2021 - FRENCH SOLDIER-HERO LOSES HIS LIFE
FRENCH SOLDIER-HERO
LOSES HIS LIFE
It is always inspiring to see a public servant that takes their duty to the ultimate level, risking life and limb in the name of what they see as "just doing their job".
Such efforts must always be commended and honored. Because at times, they choose to go to great lengths to save others, even so far as to make the ultimate sacrifice. In March 2018, a local supermarket in the French town of Trebes was taken hostage by an ISIS gunman on a violent rampage. As the police struggled to assess the situation from the outside, Lieutenant Colonel Arnaud Beltrame stepped forward. He entered the building and slyly placed an active cell phone nearby the gunman, enabling law enforcement to listen in.
He traded places with a hostage and stood in front of the gunman unarmed for 2 long hours, as his colleagues worked to devise a way to release the hostages. Gunfire eventually ensued forcing officers to breach the perimeter. There were 3 fatalities while 15 other hostages survived with injuries. Beltrame was badly wounded in the hail of bullets and married his partner while in his hospital bed.
He succumbed to his wounds within a few hours. Though the world lost a brave man, his deeds will never be forgotten. Following his passing, tributes poured in from people everywhere to honour him for his sacrifice.
Clancy's comment: A brave man. What would you have done?
Labels: CLANCY TUCKER, France, FRENCH SOLDIER-HERO LOSES HIS LIFE, ISIS, MILITANTS
Paul Kouris October 9, 2021 at 4:53 PM
An exceptionally brave man.
Sacrifice to save the innocent.
Fundamental to our sense of humanity.
Few with the courage to do so.
I would hope that I could find the courage at that moment. We all have untapped reservoirs of courage and strength.
Brownie October 9, 2021 at 5:34 PM
When good Men and Women do nothing, Evil will succeed.
Lest WE Forget. Arnaud Beltrame.
16 September 2021 - THOMAS ARNE and 'RULE BRITTANIA'
22 September 2021 - FIRST SENTENCE TRANSMITTED BY ...
28 September 2021 - WHO WON THE PATENT FOR THE TEL...
17 September 2021 - MAN SPENDS YEARS BUILDING NOAH...
18 September 2021 - PHOTOS OF THE WORLD'S OLDEST T...
19 September 2021 - ABANDONED ISLAND IN THE HEART ...
23 September 2021 - JOSHUA CRIPPS - EXTRAORDINARY ...
24 September 2021 - KINDERGARTEN CLASS INVITED TO ...
25 September 2021 - MAN MAKES IGLOO FROM MILK CARTONS
26 September 2021 - THE ANGEL OF THE NANJING RIVER...
29 September 2021 - BOWLING IN AN UNDERWATER AQUARIUM
30 September 2021 - HOMES ON A CLUSTER OF ISLANDS ...
13 August 2021 - WHEN DID CLIMATE CHANGE ARRIVE IN...
1 October 2021 - PHOTOGRAPHS TAKEN AT THE RIGHT TIME
3 October 2021 - TIPS FOR YOUR WELLBEING
28 August 2021 - THE GOLD RUSH INSPIRED ME TO WRIT...
4 October 2021 - LOST 52 PROJECT SEARCHES FOR WW11...
5 October 2021 - HERO FIREFIGHTERS SAVE LIVES IN M...
17 August 2021 - WW1 SOLDIER'S ROOM REMAINS INTACT...
11 October 2021 - WINDOW WASHERS SURPRISE SICK KID...
6 October 2021 - GOLF COURSE ONLY ACCESSIBLE BY HE...
7 October 2021 - NATURE DESTROYS GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY...
8 October 2021 - A BUNCH OF INSPIRING QUOTES
24 October 2021 - AMAZING REINDEER PEOPLE IN MONGOLIA
12 October 2021 - THE MY LAI MASSACRE
13 October 2021 - St. PATRICK, SNAKES, AND IRELAND
15 October 2021 - SINATRA PHOTOGRAPHS FIGHT OF THE...
27 August 2021 - TOP BOOK REVIEW FOR CLANCY TUCKER...
29 August 2021 - CHARLES DICKENS HAD 10 KIDS
22 October 2021 - MAN BUYS BOX OF 100-YEAR-OLD RYE...
16 October 2021 - SPANISH WORKERS DISCOVER ROMAN C...
17 October 2021 - FIRST BUS PASSENGERS WERE FRENCH
18 October 2021- THE DAY GENERAL NORIEGA'S WIFE WE...
19 October 2021 - WILLIAM SYDNEY PORTER - O. HENRY...
1 September 2021 - 'GOTCHA!' - NEW BOOK RELEASE by...
20 October 2021 - NO WHISTLING ALLOWED IN 'POSH' L...
21 October 2021 - WHAT WAS 'RED OCTOBER'?


text:
Hans-Joachim (Jochen) Walter Margull (* 25. September 1925 in Tiegenhof; † 26. Januar 1982 in Hamburg) war ein deutscher Missionswissenschaftler.

Ausbildung und erste Jahre im Beruf
Margull, dessen Vater als Landessekretär in Danzig arbeitete, besuchte die Volksschule in seinem Geburtsort Tiegenhof. Danach absolvierte er eine Oberschule und ein Gymnasium in Leipzig, das er 1943 mit einem Notabitur verließ. Nach dem Reichsarbeitsdienst und Kriegsdienst bei der Marine bestand er nach Kriegsende 1946 in Leipzig das Abitur. Nach einem Studium der evangelischen Theologie und Philosophie an Universitäten in Greifswald, Halle und Mainz erhielt er als einer der ersten deutschen Studenten ein Stipendium des Ökumenischen Rats der Kirchen. Damit besuchte er das Biblical Seminary New York und absolvierte den Master of Sacred Theology. Nach dem ersten theologischen Examen 1951 in Mainz bestand er 1953 das zweite Examen in Darmstadt. Die Ordination erfolgte 1954 in der Wiesbadener Bergkirche.

Margull arbeitete kurzzeitig als Vikar für die Evangelische Kirche in Hessen und Nassau und von 1953 bis 1955 als Studentenpfarrer für das Generalsekretariat der Evangelischen Studentengemeinde in Deutschland. An deren Dienstsitz in Stuttgart übernahm er die Studienarbeit. Für den Christlichen Studenten-Weltbund aus Genf reiste er während dieser Zeit nach England, in die Schweiz und in viele Länder Lateinamerikas, in den Vorderen Orient und nach Südeuropa. In den 1950er Jahren gründete er die Zeitschrift Ansätze. Eine Semesterzeitschrift der Ev. Studentengemeinde in Deutschland, die er ehrenamtlich redigierte.

1953 wechselte Margull an die Universität Hamburg, wo er bis 1961 blieb. Als wissenschaftlicher Assistent von Walter Freytag erarbeitete er dessen Festschrift, Reden und Aufsätze mit. An der Hamburger Universität promovierte er 1958 über die "Theologie der Missionarischen Verkündigung. Evangelisation als ökumenisches Problem" zum Dr. theol. In seiner Habilitation 1960 für Missionswissenschaft und ökumenische Beziehungen der Kirchen befasste er sich in einer Studie zur Missionswissenschaft mit chiliastisch-messianischen Bewegungen in Afrika und Südostasien.

Nach der Zeit in Hamburg ging Margull 1961 nach Genf. Bis 1965 wirkte er als Exekutivsekretär für das Referat für Fragen der Verkündigung für den Ökumenischen Rat der Kirchen. Margull erarbeitete das Studienprogramm "Mission als Strukturprinzip", das im Bereich der missionarischen Struktur der Gemeinde als richtungsweisend galt. Das Programm sah vor, führende ökumenische Theologen, Missionswissenschaftler und Soziologen miteinander in Kontakt zu bringen. Dabei definierte es die Probleme, vor denen die christliche Mission bei der Integration der Kirche und Mission unter den Aspekten von Gott, Welt und Kirche stand. 1971 übernahm Margull den Vorsitz der neuen Abteilung für Dialog.

Professor an der Universität Hamburg und Wirken in der Ökumene
1963 wechselte Margull als Gastprofessor an die Vereinigte Kirchliche Hochschule in Tokio. 1967 erhielt er als Nachfolger Walter Freytags einen Ruf der Universität Hamburg. Als ordentlicher Professor sprach er in seiner ersten Vorlesung zur "Situation als Ort theologischer Reflexion". Während Freytag die Bedeutung von Kirche und Mission eher eschatologisch betrachtet hatte, beschäftigte sich Margull mit der Gegenwart und aktuellen Problemen. Dabei bezog er immer vergangene Erfahrungen mit ein und stellte vorsichtige Fragen. Er hatte sein Studienfach basierend auf seinen Erfahrungen während der Zeit des Nationalsozialismus gewählt und war besorgt, dass Erstarrung und Verabsolutierung eintreten könnten. Daher sah er Systematisierungen kritisch und hinterfragte stets seine eigenen theologischen Auffassungen.

Neben der Lehrtätigkeit engagierte sich Margull in der Ökumene. Von 1968 bis 1975 übernahm er den Vorsitz des Arbeitsausschusses für Fragen der Mission und der Verkündigung des Ökumenischen Rates der Kirchen. Er bereitete 1970 in führender Position den ersten multireligiösen Dialog in Ajaltoun vor und führte diesen durch. Im Rahmen intensiver Gespräche mit anderen Religion gewann er den Eindruck, dass im Rahmen von Theologie und Mission neue Wege zu suchen seien, um einen Austausch der verschiedenen Glaubensrichtungen zu ermöglichen.

Neben Fragen des Dialogs widmete sich Margull als zweitem Schwerpunkt der Vulnerabilität. Basierend auf dem theologischen Verständnis der Verwundbarkeit ging er davon aus, dass Christen, die an einem wirklichen Austausch interessiert seinen und den Gesprächspartner ernst nehmen wollten, ihre Auffassung von der Mission ändern müssten. Während der Vollversammlung des Ökumenischen Rates der Kirchen in Nairobi 1975 musste er feststellen, dass große Teile des Christentums dies nicht befürworteten.

Später befasste sich Margull mit der weltweiten christlichen Verkündigung und dem selbstständigen Christentum in der "Dritten Welt", wofür er den Begriff "Tertiaterranität" verwendete. Zu Forschungszwecken reiste er nach Afrika, Israel und Indien. Dabei vergab er an Theologen aus Asien, Afrika und Lateinamerika passende Fragestellungen zur Dissertation. Außerdem gab er die Schriftenreihe zur Interkulturellen Geschichte des Christentums mit heraus. Dank seines Einsatzes wurde die Missionsakademie an der Universität Hamburg zu einem Ort, an dem Theologen aus aller Welt zusammenkamen und kommunizierten.

In seiner letzten Arbeit beschäftigte sich Margull mit "religiösen Faktoren im ägyptisch-israelischen Frieden und die Funktion eines jüdisch-islamischen Dialoges bei seiner Erhaltung". Während des Deutschen Evangelischen Kirchentags organisierte er eine Zusammenkunft von Juden und Muslimen.

Hans-Joachim Margull starb im Januar 1982. Der Theologe Gert Hummel schrieb anlässlich des Todes, dass "die Lücke, die Herr Kollege Margull hinterlässt, kaum zu schließen sein wird".

Literatur

Weblinks

Geboren 1925
Gestorben 1982
Hochschullehrer (Universität Hamburg)
Lutherischer Geistlicher (20. Jahrhundert)
Deutscher
Mann

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


We only do data recovery, and we're good at it. Any data storage device is supported.
Data recovery on a hard drive can be a complex process involving both physical hard drive repair, as well as software based rebuilds and data retrieval. We have been performing expert recoveries on hard drives in the San Diego area for over 15 years, with the highest levels of security and success rates.
It is extremely important that if you expereince any of these issues, you let a data recovery expert evaluate your system/device as quickly as possible. Each time that you try to boot up a damaged hard drive it causes more wear and tear on a drive, to the point that you can inadvertently cause a drive that was recoverable, to become compeltely unrecoverable. Our experienced technicians will take a look at your drive 100% free of charge to determine if data recovery is needed.
When a physical repair is required, we make sure to take all precautions including using cleanroom technology, specialized tools, and recovery devices. A sector by sector copy of the hard drive is always created as soon as the drive is physically able to run, ensuring that we immediately have a copy of the data that is separate from the failing drive. This extra step helps to make sure that a drive that is slowly failing will not cause any further damage to your data. Our 100% priority in hard drive recoveries is to recover your data as completely as possible, while only repairing the hard drive itself up to the point to make the data recovery successful.
After a secure back-up copy of the drive is created, and physical recovery steps are complete, the last step is to run any specialized software components on a hard drive to completely salvage any and all data. This careful, systemic process puts our success rates of recovery at the top of the pack in San Diego area, and beyond. Many successful recovery jobs we get are ones that were sent from another company who certified them as 'unrecoverable' or a 'lost cause'. Trust our experience and specialization to hard drive recovery that will give your project the best chance of success.
Any hard drive that stores data is supported by our expert technicians. Whether you are using a Seagate, Toshiba, Samsung, Fujitsu, Western Digital, Hitachi, Maxtor, or any other drive, we can work with it. The manufacturer of the device does not matter, if it stores data, we can recover it. We also support any type of device that stores data or stores a hard drive, including traditional tower computers, laptops, RAID servers, and more. Check our services page for a complete list of the most common devices we work with.
We offer free evaluations on any data recovery job, and are available any time to talk to you about the specifics of your situation. With a convenient drop off location in San Diego, near the Qualcomm stadium, we are ready to save you from any hard drive data recovery emergency. Contact us immediately for a free evaluation and quote.
Copyright © 2019 San Diego Data Recovery. All Rights Reserved.


The craving started yesterday, during my usual Pinterest perusing, when I came across a beautiful photo of the most stunning quesadillas. I'm a huge sucker for a cheese plate, but Mexican shredded cheese that gets all greasy when you melt it has never been my favorite. So I opted to make a totally dairy free (on top of the usual gluten free) quesadilla. I used Tofuyan brand gluten free wraps, which I highly recommend because they don't crack or break apart like most gf wraps tend to do.
Spread a bit of roasted garlic paste over the bottom of half the tortilla and top with some lightly-mashed avocado. Place tortilla on a already warm flat top or large fry pan (if you are not using a non-stick pan, then grease the pan lightly with some coconut oil). Then start to add your quesadilla accoutrements! I put corn, chipotle chicken, broccoli micro greens, tomatoes, cilantro, onion and a bit of arugula.
Fold the quesadilla closed and toast both sides with everything inside. Remove from heat, slice, and serve!


Custom Plastics Case Study - Print collateral material, catalogs, brochures, product branding, trade show graphics.
To differentiate a commodity service into a premium service that is perceived to be worth the slightly additional cost. This first challenge is to promote Custom Plastics' services as a trustworthy, high-quality brand that is able to provide a one-stop solution for all extrusion and injection molding needs. This involves a re-branding of the company. For this, we create an entire identity system that ties the corporate logo with the different "divisions". The logos are simple, stylish and extensible to other future services that Custom Plastics may provide later. The perception we want to provide is that the company not only can deliver the service as promised, but do with a sense of style and elegance. This is very unique from the ubiquitous clunky, industrial feel that other companies have.
We used the identities to develop the entire company's collateral including their business cards, letterheads, quotation forms, sales materials, sales brochures, sales folders and tradeshow booths.
Tags: marketing collateral design, brochure development, tradeshow graphics design.
This identity system is used as part of the Custom Plastics website. The Custom Plastics website is converted to a gateway / portal to the other divisions and services of the company.
Note the consistent use of color as differentiation of the services, but yet retain the overall brand personality of the company. The new branding drives the differentiation of the company from its competitors.
Part of our effort to assist Custom Plastics with their sales, we also provide search engine marketing (SEM) services for Custom Plastics to ensure that their website could be found on major search engines. Unlike most other marketing agencies, our strong technology background enables us to provide solid quantifiable results.
Evolution Point has developed a formalized 6 step process in executing search engine optimization. This process has proven to be very successful. We have done search engine optimization on multi-languages including English, Spanish, French, and German.
Custom Plastics participants in 4-6 different trade shows annually. Depending on the trade show, the booth space differed in size. As a result, Evo designed several pull-down banners which brands the different divisions uniquely depending on the trade audience.
This tradeshow booth is designed to stand out from the rest of the booths. We design a simple, clean and effective layout for quick ingestion of information as people walk by. The design is a composite of 3 different panels which can be used separately or as a cohesive unit, depending on the floor area of the booth.


text:
John Simmons: Industry Mentor Remembered
SEMA News - April 2010
Simmons, who passed away in February, was named SEMA Person of the Year in 1980 and was inducted into the SEMA Hall of Fame in 2004.
Performance parts pioneer, SEMA Hall of Fame member and founder of SECO Equipment Company and SECO Performance Centers John Simmons passed away on Sunday, February 14.
"John Simmons was more than my mentor for more than 20 years," said SEMA Chairman of the Board Rick Rollins. "He was like a father that you could always go to for the answers, and not the answers that you wanted to hear, but the ones that came from his many years of experience and, more importantly, from his heart."
Simmons started his warehouse distribution business for performance parts in 1962. He began by selling parts from a trailer that he hauled to race tracks on weekends. By 1967, Simmons was committed to the performance parts business, but he also owned and operated the Helena Dragstrip. Soon after the track was closed in 1967 due to noise, Simmons, along with several partners, acquired Lassiter Mountain Speedway, which they ran for 10 years.
Simmons joined SEMA in 1969. He served three terms on the SEMA Board of Directors from 1978–1982, and he chaired the SEMA Finance Committee in 1981. He served on the awards judging committee from 1984–1986, chaired the Person of the Year Committee in 1987 and also served as Membership Committee chairman. Simmons was named SEMA Person of the Year in 1980 and was inducted into the SEMA Hall of Fame in 2004.
"John didn't have time for the modern-day marketing surveys or 30,000-foot views of what was going on, because he knew," Rollins said. "He stayed in touch with what was going on in the streets, on the race tracks and at the car shows. As a manufacturer sales manager, I made very few decisions concerning selling into distribution or running promotions without first consulting John. I will miss him."
More than 50 educational seminars conducted at the 2009 SEMA Show are now available to download at www.sema.org/seminars.
SEMA Show Seminars Delivered to Your Desktop
Did you miss the 50 world-class seminars at the 2009 SEMA Show? No problem. For the first time, SEMA has recorded and uploaded audio from every education session presented at the 2009 Show.
More than 50 sessions are now available for you to download, listen to at your convenience and refer back to at any time.
Members pay just $4.95 per session, or $9.95 per session for non-SEMA members.
Gain fresh insight and learn practical tools that can improve your business today from the SEMA Education Institute (SEI). Get started at www.sema.org/seminars.
Exhibitor applications for the 2010 SEMA Show must be returned by May 7 in order for companies to participate in the priority space-selection process.
Exhibit Space Applications for 2010 SEMA Show Now Available
Exhibitor applications are now available for the 2010 SEMA Show, which will be held Tuesday through Friday, November 2–5, 2010, in Las Vegas.
The forms are posted on the SEMA Show website and must be returned by May 7 in order for companies to participate in the priority space-selection process.
The SEMA Show is the premiere automotive accessories trade show in the world. The annual event draws more than 100,000 industry professionals, including 50,000 buyers and 2,300 media representatives.
To learn more about the SEMA Show and how to exhibit, visit www.SEMAShow.com or contact SEMA Show Management at 702/450-7662, x120.
SEMA Show Enhances Offerings for Paint and Body Market
SEMA Show organizers are working with the Society of Collision and Repair Specialists and the Collision Industry Conference to enhance the Paint, Body & Equipment section of the 2010 SEMA Show.
The Paint, Body & Equipment (PBE) area of the 2010 SEMA Show will be larger and in a more prominent location than it was in 2009, and educational sessions specific to the paint and body market will be offered during the event, set for November 2–5, in Las Vegas.
The move to enhance the PBE section by Show organizers was made due to SEMA Show attendees increasingly expressing interest in the paint and body market. While the PBE floor section was formally introduced in 2009, Show organizers had seen an increase in the product category for many years.
"We're constantly adapting to changes in the industry," said Chris Kersting, SEMA president and CEO. "We challenge ourselves to deliver high value to both exhibitors and attendees, all with the goal of providing them with a Show that is current and relevant."
Organizers are also working with the Society of Collision and Repair Specialists (SCRS) and the Collision Industry Conference (CIC), both of which will host meetings for their groups in Las Vegas during the week of the SEMA Show. The SCRS is collaborating closely with SEMA to develop targeted educational seminars at the SEMA Show.
The Exhibit Space Rental Agreement (ESRA) for manufacturers is now available. Attendee registration opens in May. Updated SEMA Show information is also available at www.SEMAShow.com.
The Sports Car Club of America Inc. (SCCA) appointed Reece White to the position of public relations manager. White will manage the public relations efforts for such SCCA Pro Racing series as the World Challenge Championships, Playboy Mazda MX-5 Cup and Trans-Am Series as well as SCCA's Club Racing, Solo and Rally programs. His duties will include producing feature articles, press releases and media materials on each of the SCCA programs. SCCA, Topeka, KS; 785/357-7222.
THI Corp., parent company of Extang, TruXedo and BedRug, has hired Michael McGunagle as marketing director. He is responsible for the marketing and branding efforts for all THI product lines. McGunagle has 13 years of experience in the automotive aftermarket industry, working with companies such as Maxxis Tires and Eaton Corp. Extang, Ann Arbor, MI; 800/877-2588. TruXedo, Yankton, SD; 877/878-9336.
The team at CWR Electronics will participate in the American Cancer Society's Relay for Life in Berkley Township, New Jersey, May 15–16. Team CWR will camp out overnight and take turns walking around the track at Veterans Park to raise money and awareness for the battle against cancer.
In December 2009, Carlisle Companies Inc. created Carlisle Engineered Transportation Solutions, which is comprised of Carlisle Tire & Wheel, Carlisle Industrial Brake & Friction and Carlisle Power Transmission. According to the company, combining the operations into one unit will strengthen the value of the Carlisle brand, create a differentiated platform for its markets and bolster Carlisle's position with key manufacturing and distribution customers. Carlisle Tire & Wheel, Carson, CA; 310/816-1001.
Deeza Chassis Parts has added eCommerce capabilities to its website. The enhancements include the ability for customers to review stock quantities, place regular or drop-ship orders and review order history, statements and invoices.
Advantage Truck Acc. Inc. announced that the company's quality management system has been assessed and registered by Intertek Testing Services NA Inc. as conforming to the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 as of January 25, 2010. Advantage Truck Accessories Inc., Elkhart, IN; 574/293-0979.
Mishimoto Automotive announced that its T-shirt Design Contest is underway as of February 8. The contest provides enthusiasts with the opportunity to determine the next installment in the Mishimoto apparel line. Mishimoto Automotive, Wilmington, DE; 877/GO-MISHI.
Edelbrock and the Center for Learning Unlimited have once again teamed up in support of helping children with learning disabilities to present the 5th Annual Rev'ved Up 4 Kidz VIP gala charity auction and car show, April 24–25. The weekend kicks off with a gala dinner and charity auction on Saturday evening at "Vic's Garage," hosted by event organizer Christi Edelbrock. Sunday, Edelbrock hosts the Rev'ved Up 4 Kidz Car Show, where all makes and models are welcome. Interested participants can pre-register here. Edelbrock, Torrance, CA; 310/781-2222.
Meyer Distributing added a new cross dock in Nashville that will act as a key location for the company's distribution network. Meyer will provide route delivery to the Nashville metro area, Clarksville, Columbia and greater Tennessee from the new location. Meyer Distributing, Jasper, IN; 800/MEYERUSA.
The Association of Diesel Specialists Guadalajara regional event is set for May 19–23 at the Camino Real Hotel in Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico. The event showcases technical training courses and new technologies regarding fuel-injection systems. Attendees will also have the chance to explore the packed exhibit hall for the latest products and resources available.
Skyjacker Suspensions is offering a $35 consumer rebate on all Skyjacker Hydro H7000 series and Nitro N8000 series shocks and leveling kits. Unlike similar promotions, the rebate does not require the dealer to fill out any paperwork. Dealers simply sell the product, and the consumer and Skyjacker handle the rebate portion of the transaction. The promotion runs from March 1 to May 31. For more information, visit www.skyjacker.com/shockrebate. Skyjacker Suspensions, Monroe, LA; 318/388-0816.
Continental Tire North America announced a name change that better reflects the growth of the tire maker in both North and South America. The new name for the passenger and light-truck and commercial vehicle tire divisions in the region is now Continental Tire the Americas LLC. One of the key actions in 2009 that led to the decision to modify the name was the acquisition of a leading tire company in Latin America, Compañia Ecuatoriana del Caucho S.A. (ERCO).
RCH Designs announced the opening of its Studio Garage, a white room that is 25 ft. long and 35 ft. wide, with a custom silk ceiling baffle. The studio has lighting options for video and still photography. The studio currently offers the use of basic tools and machinery (an air compressor and air tools, a work bench, cordless power tools, wrenches, sockets, etc). RCH Designs, Huntington Beach, CA; 714/842-9899.
Fear This Inc., a nonprofit organization that provides safe-driver education to teens, has incorporated five exercises in its program that teach drivers to think and react quickly. Based on the Emergency Vehicle Operation Course (EVOC) undergone at all levels of law enforcement, Fear This Inc., founded by Woodrow Gaines, employs the Teen Vehicle Operation Course taught by peace officers and certified EVOC instructors. Fear This Inc., Snellville, GA; 770/823-7823.
Autobytel Inc. named Steve Lind executive vice president of corporate development. Lind brings to the company nearly 15 years of online and offline automotive experience, a rich collection of industry contacts and a proven track record of executive leadership honed at Nissan North America, LeadPoint, Stealing Home Media and through nearly 10 previous years of service
at Autobytel.
The first annual Winfield Award—presented by master customizer and designer Gene Winfield in recognition of automotive excellence—will be presented during the 2010 Syracuse Nationals, July 16–18. Winfield will choose six vehicles known as the Select Six from the entries, and the vehicles will be prominently displayed inside one of the main buildings at the nationals. Winfield will conduct the final judging at the show, and the winner will be announced on Saturday, July 17. The winner will receive a one-of-a-kind personalized commemorative jacket and $5,000. For additional details, call 800/753-3978.
Fidanza and Zoom Performance Products formed a new partnership known as the Clutch Alliance, which allows the two companies to work together on engineering and product development while continuing to exist as separate entities. Fidanza, Perry, OH;
440/259-5656.
Classic Instruments announced that it will sponsor the Pros Pick award at all National Street Rod Association (NSRA) events. The Classic Instruments Pros Pick award will be presented by the NSRA at all 11 events yearly, and the company will determine five Pros Pick recipients at each event. At the Street Rod Nationals, there will be 12 recipients chosen. Classic Instruments, Boyne City, MI; 231/582-0461.
Study: Global ADAS Market Project to Reach $57 Billion by 2030


text:
Q: Background image flickering with user interaction on iOS [Ionic 5] I'm trying to get a background image to work on a multi-paged Ionic app that I'm updating from Ionic 3 to 5. I was getting the flickering background image problem on iOS for any page other than the first page loaded. I tried implementing this solution: How to put image in both <ion-header> and <ion-content> in Ionic and it works in the web browser but when I run it in the simulator in Xcode, ionViewWillEnter does not fire in iOS but will fire in the browser (live reload).
This is the old code in CSS that produces the flickering in iOS:
ion-content {
    --background: url(/assets/imgs/bg/piano.jpg) no-repeat center/ cover fixed;
    }

The workaround looks like this:
import { DomController } from '@ionic/angular';

...
constructor(public navCtrl: NavController, private domCtrl: DomController) {
  }

...
private initializeBackground(): void {
    try {
      console.log ('initializing background');
      const content = document.querySelector('#level');
      const innerScroll = content.shadowRoot.querySelector('.inner-scroll');
      this.domCtrl.write(() => {
        innerScroll.setAttribute(
          'style',
          'background: url("/assets/imgs/bg/piano.jpg") no-repeat center center / cover'
        );
        });
        console.log('background initialized'); } catch (e) {}
        console.log('background not initialized');
  }

...
ionViewWillEnter() {
    console.log('After Init?');
    this.initializeBackground();
  }

When I run this, ionViewWillEnter fires when running it in the web browser but when I run it in the simulator, it does not. I've been reading that it will only trigger once and has problems when triggering from a side menu https://fantashit.com/ionic-4-ionviewwillenter-only-triggers-once/ But I'm not sure this is the problem I've got because it makes no mention of this working in the browser, but not in iOS.
All I want is to set different background images on different pages that work on all platforms. Surely there is a better way? Any help would be greatly appreciated.

A: After giving up on the ionViewWillEnter feature/bug problem I came up with a workaround.
Instead of using .ion-content {--background...} I created a wrapper in the html
<ion-content>

and set the css as follows:
.splash {
background: url(/assets/imgs/bg/piano.jpg) no-repeat center/ cover fixed;
width: 100%;
height: 100%;

}
And then moved the actual content up 100% to go over the background:
ion-grid{
    margin-top: -100vh;
    height: 100%;
    width:100%;
}

This solved the problem for me.

A: Just to be a bit more concise for others. Here is a working solution for having different images for both Web and mobile views with no flash.
 import { DomController } from "@ionic/angular";

...
 constructor(private domCtrl: DomController
  ) {}

...
 private initializeBackgroundWeb(): void {
try {
  console.log("initializing background");
  const content = document.querySelector(".background");
  const innerScroll = content.shadowRoot.querySelector(".inner-scroll");
  this.domCtrl.write(() => {
    innerScroll.setAttribute(
      "style",
      'background: url("../../assets/images/back7.jpg") center center / cover no-repeat'
    );
  });

  console.log("background initialized");
} catch (e) {}
console.log("background not initialized");
  }

 private initializeBackgroundMobile(): void {
try {
  console.log("initializing background");
  const content = document.querySelector(".background");
  const innerScroll = content.shadowRoot.querySelector(".inner-scroll");
  this.domCtrl.write(() => {
    innerScroll.setAttribute(
      "style",
      'background: url("../../assets/images/back18.jpg") center center / cover no-repeat'
    );
  });

  console.log("background initialized");
} catch (e) {}
console.log("background not initialized");

}
and check media query in ionViewWillEnter like so.
 ionViewWillEnter() {
   const x = window.matchMedia("(min-width: 850px)");
   if (x.matches) {
    // If media query matches
   this.initializeBackgroundWeb();
  } else {
  this.initializeBackgroundMobile();
  }
  }

Then you can additionally create a div just inside your ion-content and set height and width like the above answer.
 .splash {
  height: 100%;
  width: 100%;
  }


text:
Nuggets snap streak of Spurs
PUBLISHED: March 8, 2008 at 3:37 a.m. | UPDATED: August 17, 2016 at 4:14 a.m.
DENVER — Allen Iverson scored 29 points despite spraining his right ring finger in the first half and the Denver Nuggets snapped San Antonio's 11-game winning streak with a 109-96 statement win over the Spurs on Friday night.
Carmelo Anthony overcame a bad first half (1-for-7 from the floor) to finish with 25 points as the Nuggets won for the 13th time in their last 15 games at the Pepsi Center, which was rocking as it hadn't since Denver faced San Antonio in the playoffs last season.
Despite a 37-24 record, the Nuggets are still one game behind Golden State for the eighth spot in the wild Western Conference playoff picture.
Jazz 126, Suns 118
PHOENIX — Carlos Boozer scored 17 of his 23 points in the second half, including a tough 8-foot bank shot with 31.1 seconds to play, and Utah handed the Phoenix Suns their third consecutive home loss.
Deron Williams had 25 points and 15 assists, and Mehmet Okur had 25 points, including 4-of-6 3-pointers, and grabbed 14 rebounds to give the Jazz their fourth win in a row.
Amare Stoudemire scored 37, but the Suns fell to 3-6 since Shaquille O'Neal joined the lineup.
Lakers 119, Clippers 82
LOS ANGELES — Derek Fisher scored 17 points, Kobe Bryant had 16 and the Los Angeles Lakers went on a 3-point shooting spree in the second half of a rout of the Clippers.
Timberwolves 111, Kings 103
SACRAMENTO — Al Jefferson had 21 points and 13 rebounds to help Minnesota record a rare road win and snap a five-game losing streak. Kevin Martin scored a career-high 48 points and tied the Kings' Sacramento record by hitting 22 of 24 free throws.
Hornets 107, Nets 96
NEW ORLEANS — Chris Paul had 25 points and 16 assists, and New Orleans won its third straight game.
76ers 117, Sonics 83
PHILADELPHIA — Samuel Dalembert had 22 points and 13 rebounds to lead Philadelphia to its eighth straight home victory.
Bobcats 108, Hawks 93
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Raymond Felton had 23 points and 11 assists, and Charlotte matched a team record with its fourth straight win.
Wizards 110,
Raptors 106 (OT)
TORONTO — Antawn Jamison had 25 points, including six of the Wizards' last eight points in overtime, and 16 rebounds to lead Washington.
Pistons 101, Knicks 97
NEW YORK — Tayshaun Prince scored 28 points to lead Detroit.
Celtics 116, Bulls 93
BOSTON — Paul Pierce scored 22 points, and Kevin Garnett added 16 and eight rebounds before Boston's starters sat out the fourth quarter of their seventh consecutive win.
Trail Blazers 103, Bucks 101
MILWAUKEE — LaMarcus Aldridge scored 29 points, including a 13-foot jumper with 2.4 seconds remaining, to rally Portland
In a letter published Friday in Chinese-language newspapers, Houston Rockets star center Yao Ming assured fans that his operation Monday to repair a stress fracture in his left foot was successful and he'll be fit to play in August despite missing the rest of the NBA season.


In countries like Guatemala or Mexico dips or salsas tend to come with a generous portion of nacho chips served as a starter or early evening snack.
While nachos are typically deep-fried, these tortilla slices are lightly brushed in olive oil, and then baked, making them a healthier alternative to the bought variety. I love this version because is uses readymade tortillas that turn wonderfully crispy when baked. Plus, they're ready faster than you can say 'nacho cheese'!
Nachos are the perfect accompaniment for refried black beans, guacamole or a homemade tomato salsa. There are several salsa recipes on La Salsa Inglesa recipe page if you're looking for inspiration.
Serve with your preferred choice of salsa, like our refried black bean dip. To store, keep in an airtight container but they are best eaten within a day or two before they loose their crunch.