In many publishing houses today, the growth of e-book sales and other digital distribution channels for content has lead to the need to change the whole cost infrastructure of their organizations. The effect on the cost basis of traditional distribution centers and so on is obvious. It also follows that the production costs of producing the various formats of products published have also radically changed.
However, even though digital distribution and the leveraging of content with new digital models are growing, there is still a need to provide traditional printed products to those who prefer to pay for them. Large volume trade or mass market publishing still requires print run planning and reprint forecasting.
So, how can you change your forecast models so that the cost effects of reducing print run quantities to match the demand can be analyzed and better understood while also understanding the cost and profit effect of digital distribution models? How do you calculate the most economical way to provide the required e-book formats and printed inventory?
Happily, there is a new force in computing that can help, Thomas Bayes, even though he has been dead for hundreds of years.
Bayesian theory already affects your everyday life. Software giants such as Google and Microsoft employ Bayesian theory in their software today to provide likely but never exact results to data searches (we have all seen the "did you mean" question) or to predict the next action a user will take when operating software tools to improve performance and user friendliness. Using the theory is also fundamental to current research in artificial intelligence and robotics.
In the same way that Google and others provide this kind of intelligence, Klopotek PPM (Product Planning and Management system) can use past sales, returns and profitability performance to apply Bayesian theory to accurately predict the future sales in the respective e-book channels, digital distribution channels, POD (Print on demand) and traditional print channels. Knowing the likely volumes of product formats in each sales channel allows for the ability to research the most cost effective way to manufacture product to support those channels and therefore increases or maximizes product profitability and helps to re-engineer the infrastructure costs of the publishing house.
Klopotek PPM achieves this using OLE automation and MS Excel™ integration or using the XML data export providing the ability to apply any complex formulae desired, such as Bayes' Theorem, to rich metadata on product, sales and formats.
So, how does this theory work in a practical sense? Suppose there are two packets of candies. Packet 1 has 10 cherry candies and 30 chocolate candies, while packet 2 has 20 of each. Our friend and candy lover, Joachim, picks a packet at random, and then picks a candy at random. We may assume there is no reason to believe Joachim treats one packet differently from another, likewise for the candies.
The candy Joachim picks turns out to be a chocolate one. How probable is it that Joachim picked it out of packet 1?
Intuitively, it seems clear that the answer should be more than a half, since there are more chocolate candies in packet 1.
The precise answer is given by Bayes' theorem. Let H₁ correspond to packet 1, and H₂ to packet 2. It is given that the packets are identical from Joachims's point of view, thus P (H₁) = P (H₂), and the two must add up to 1, so both are equal to 0.5. The event E is the observation of a chocolate candy. From the contents of the packets, we know that: P (E | H₁) = 30/40 = 0.75 and P (E |H₂) = 20/40 = 0.5.
Before we observed the candy selected, the probability we assigned for Joachim having chosen packet 1 was the prior probability, P (H₁), which was 0.5. After observing the candy selected, we must revise the probability to P (H₁ | E ), which is 0.6.
If we apply the same theory to the wrappers and packets that Joachim discards we can also predict his preference for cherry or chocolate.
In the same way it's possible to predict the sales volume of e-books or print sales or POD sales in any particular format in any particular sales channel by applying the theorem to the previously observed sales volumes and profit performance; e-books could be considered candies and the sales channels the packets, and returns allow us to predict preference, to put it simply. There are several interpretations of the theory and different ways to apply the inference, however, the accuracy of the predictions is quite impressive and it's extremely dynamic and improves over time.
Having established better predictions it's then possible to assess the probable sales volumes of the various formats of product in the various sales channels needed to support and therefore negotiate and research the most economical order quantity to support the anticipated volumes.
Having secured the best cost models possible it's possible, then, to better predict the profitability and break even volumes needed to support the decision to publish works. The whole process is not static and the more it is used the more accurate it becomes.


text:
Per Holm Knudsen (født 18. december 1945 i København) er en dansk forfatter, psykoterapeut og sexolog. Gift med skuespilleren Hanne Windfeld.

Børnebilledbøger
 Den lille blå bil (Borgens Forlag 1969)
 Palmen Joachim (Borgens Forlag 1970)
 Sæbeboble grøn og sæbeboble rød (Borgens Forlag 1970)
 Ballonen Bubi (Borgens Forlag 1970)
 Sådan får man et barn (Borgens Forlag 1971)
 Da solen stod op om natten (Borgens Forlag 1971)
 Frøen Jakob (Borgens Forlag 1972)
 Rødspætten Katinka (Borgens Forlag 1972)
 Musen Malle (Borgens Forlag 1973)
 En muldvarp (Borgens Forlag 1982)

Ungdomsroman
 Conni og bolighajen (Borgens Forlag 1974)

Noveller
 Børnelokkeren (1979) i antologien Med egne øjne og andre noveller, Borgen
 Og så kan man ikke blive soldat (1979) i antologien Dumme tøser, Jespersen og Pios forlag
 Krig i København (1980) i antologien Billeder fra 60'erne, Forlaget Delta – ny udvidet udgave Branner & Koch (2004)
 Den første kamp (1980) i antologien , Forlaget Oktober
 Langt ude ... i skoven (1982) i antologien Malurt, Forlaget Tellerup

Oversættelser
 Sven Wernström: Fjendens sprog (1975), Forlaget GMT
 Sven Wernström: Om at skrive som håndværk (1979), Høst og Søn
 Ulf Nilsson: En kamp for livet (1982), Høst og Søn

Andre bøger
 B. Ørn: Conni og bolighajen, Pædagogiske arbejdsmapper, nr. 15, (1976) GMT (Bidrag)

Fagbøger
 Sara Skaarup & Per Holm Knudsen: 100 myter om sex (2018), FADL's Forlag

Priser
Kulturministeriets Børnebogspris 1972 for Sådan får man et barn

Hammel byråd
Medlem af Hammel byråd 1978-1985 for Tværsocialistisk Liste (Liste T)

Ekstern henvisning
 Hjemmeside
 Biografi

Sexologer
Psykoterapeuter
Personer fra København
Børnebogsforfattere fra Danmark
Novelleforfattere fra Danmark
Dansksprogede forfattere fra Danmark
Modtagere af Kulturministeriets Børnebogspris

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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text:
Civilians are part of U.S. toll in Libya
A U.S. attack on Libya last week aimed at terrorists in an Islamic State group camp unfortunately killed two Serbian hostages.
The F-15E jet strike in Sabratha, west of Tripoli, took at least 49 lives. The principal target was Noureddine Chouchane, a senior operative who was suspected of organizing attacks in Tunisia and who U.S. officials believe died in the bombing. Tragically, two Serbian embassy officials who had been taken hostage in November, communications officer Sladjana Stankovic and driver Jovica Stepic, died while being held at the camp.
Last year a U.S. drone strike in Pakistan killed two other Western hostages, Warren Weinstein, an American contractor, and Giovanni Lo Porto, an Italian aid worker.
Since the overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi in 2011, Libya has been in chaos, with no generally-recognized government. Two rival groups pretend to be the legitimate authority, one based in Tobruk in the east and another in Tripoli, the former capital. Numerous militias, either tribally- or locally-based, are scattered about the country, all claiming sovereignty over their territory. The United Nations has been laboring mightily, so far without success, to obtain these groups' agreement to a government of national unity.
Special forces from France, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States are also in Libya, trying to disrupt the rising influx of Islamic State fighters, about 6,500 of whom have come from Iraq, Syria, Yemen and, of course, Libya. They are largely based along the Mediterranean coast and centered on the city of Sirte. The various Libyan authorities do not welcome the foreign presence for the most part and the Tripoli-based government vigorously criticized the U.S. attack on Sabratha. Serbia has demanded an explanation.
With no declaration of war or other legal justification, the United States unleashed its attack last week, with the hope of crushing a terrorists' nest. But didn't American intelligence know the Serbs were being held at the camp? The Pentagon says it kept close watch for weeks on the site and noticed no civilians. The fact that its information was wrong is even more disturbing.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Q: Setup mock without changing `called` count let's say I want to test this function
def my_function():
    my_obj = MyClass()
    return my_obj.my_method()

I want to mock MyClass, so I use unittest.mock.patch
@patch('...MyClass')
def test_my_function(MyClass):
    MyClass().my_method.return_value = 'foo'
    assert my_function() == 'foo'
    MyClass.assert_called_once()

this test fails at the last line with the error AssertionError: Expected 'MyClass' to have been called once. Called 2 times.; witch, in a sense, is right: the first time is test_my_function, when I set up the MyClass().my_method return value.
What I want to express, however, is the fact that MyClass() should be instantiated just once in my_function.
Is there a way to "prepare" the nested mocks (so to set the return_value = 'foo') without changing the intermediate mocks "called" count?

A: Dumb me... It was enough to use MyClass.return_value.my_method.return_value = 'foo' instead of MyClass().my_method.return_value = 'foo'

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


We undertake house clearance in all areas of Washington: Donwell Usworth Concord Sulgrave Albany Glebe Barmston Biddick Washington Village Columbia.
In this case our client was a landlady who wanted one of her properties, a three-bedroomed, semi-detached house with a garden in a quiet residential neighbourhood in the Washington area. The last tenants had left the property in very poor condition, with a large amount of rubbish, old bicycles, broken TV's and other assorted junk both in the house and garden.
The landlady asked us to completely clear the house and the garden, and to arrange a deep clean so that she could redecorate and furnish the property ready for new tenants.
As it was summer and light early, we started work at 6 a.m. in the garden, where we moved piles of assorted junk. This included old car tyres, a broken washing machine, two sofas and the shell of a rusted 1990 Ford Fiesta which had obviously been stripped for parts.
There was a large amount of rubbish in the house, such as old newspapers, broken kitchen equipment and a huge number of empty beer cans and wine bottles. Once we had cleared everything, we found that the carpets, although somewhat dirty, were in remarkably good condition as they'd been covered by a layer of discarded newspapers and magazines! We used a steam cleaner on the carpets and they were then perfectly presentable, except in one room where there was a stain which was impossible to remove. We cleaned the property thoroughly, changed the locks, and handed over the keys to the new owner at 6 p.m.
We found very little that we could re-use, but were able to recycle most of the paper and cardboard rubbish, as well as the bottles and cans. The vehicle was collected by a scrap metal dealer, who was able to give us a small amount which we offset against the cost of the house clearance.
The client emailed us to say, "I've been a landlady for 15 years, but I've never seen one of my properties in such a state. I thought it would take days to clean, so I was astonished and delighted that your team finished the whole job in a single day. Thank you so much!


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RSP08 the Event bus on contract hire to Bauer Media's radio Key 103 in Manchester has had another re-brand. Key 103, one of Manchesters primary radio stations currently utilise RSP08 as their Media bus for station and client based outside promotions.
The bus, an 11.5m long Optare Excel single decker was taken off rotation for over a week whilst the old branding was removed and the new branding applied.