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The New SAT vs. the ACT: Full Breakdown
Posted by Alex Heimbach | Jun 8, 2017 9:00:00 AM
SAT versus ACT, New SAT
For the past decade or so, the SAT has come under increasing scrutiny for its confusing structure, trick questions, and obscure vocabulary. Meanwhile, the ACT is often seen as the fairer test, more closely based in what students learn in school.
As you might have heard, the College Board undertook a radical overhaul of the SAT that went into effect in March 2016 and, in many ways, made it much more similar to the ACT. Adding to the confusion is the fact that ACT, Inc., also made some minor changes to the ACT.
What are the main differences between the current versions of the two tests? The short answer is that the SAT and ACT are now quite similar. The changes have eliminated many of the two tests' major differences in both style and content. Nonetheless, there remain important variations—some long-standing and some newly introduced.
I'm going to start by talking about what the SAT and ACT look like in general, and then I'll break down the new similarities and unique characteristics of each test, section by section:
Test Structure (Timing/Sections and Scoring)
Writing/English
Brief Timeline of Changes to the SAT and ACT
Before we get into the key differences between the two tests, I've included a basic timeline of when the changes to each exam went into effect below:
Early 2015 and earlier
Slight changes to ACT question distribution
Paired passages on ACT Reading
New ACT Writing test
Redesigned PSAT
Redesigned SAT
As you can see, the ACT, the SAT, and even the PSAT have all undergone noticeable changes in the past few years. Yet while the content and format of the ACT has stayed mostly the same, both the SAT and PSAT have been completely revamped (or, rather, redesigned).
Now that you understand when these big changes happened, let's begin our analysis by comparing the overall structures of the current SAT and ACT.
SAT vs ACT: Overall Test Structure
One of the goals of the SAT overhaul was to make the test more straightforward, so many of its structural oddities, such as the wrong-answer penalty, were eliminated. The College Board also streamlined the SAT structure by including only one section of each type (except for Math, which has two subsections now) rather than three.
The ACT structure, on the other hand, has stayed mostly the same. The biggest changes to the test mainly targeted the Writing (essay) section, and that's it.
Let's go over the specific layouts of the two tests so you can better understand the similarities and differences between them.
Timing and Sections
The current SAT has one Reading section and one Writing section. The Math section is divided into a No Calculator Test and a Calculator Test (meaning you may not use your calculator on the former but may on the latter). In addition, there is one Essay section, which is optional.
The four sections are always in the same order. The entire SAT is three hours without the Essay, and three hours and 50 minutes with the Essay. The exact breakdown looks like this:
SAT Section Total Time # of Questions
1. Reading 65 minutes 52
2. Writing and Language 35 minutes 44
3. Math No Calculator 25 minutes 20
4. Math Calculator 55 minutes 38
5. Essay (Optional) 50 minutes 1 prompt
By contrast, the basic ACT structure and timing have not changed, with the exception of the new essay section, which is longer. Here is the breakdown of the ACT's timing and questions:
ACT Section Total Time # of Questions
1. English 45 minutes 75
2. Math 60 minutes 60
4. Science 35 minutes 40
5. Writing (Optional) 40 minutes 1 prompt
As you can see, the format of the current SAT is more similar to that of the ACT than to that of its previous incarnation. While there's no Science section on the SAT, it contains sections on Reading, Writing/English, and Math, just like the ACT does. It also has an optional Essay section like the ACT (before, the SAT Essay was mandatory!).
The 2016 SAT redesign also involved major changes to the scoring system; we'll go through these one at a time:
Scoring returned to the 400-1600 scale: In 2005, when the College Board last implemented major changes to the SAT, it added the Writing section; this meant there were three scores (each on a scale of 200-800) to combine, making the top possible score 2400. Nowadays, the Writing and Reading sections count toward the same Evidence-Based Reading and Writing (EBRW) score, which are combined with your Math score to get a final score between 400 and 1600.
There's no wrong-answer penalty: You're no longer penalized by 1/4 point for every wrong answer! The original idea behind this policy was to discourage guessing on the SAT, but the College Board's research found that eliminating it doesn't affect scores that much and cuts down on students' reliance on test-taking strategies (a major goal for this overhaul).
The Essay is given three scores and no longer affects your total SAT score: Since it's now optional, the SAT Essay works a lot more like the ACT essay—you get a separate Essay score that does not factor into your final score (on the 400-1600 scale). Essay scoring also changed: rather than getting one score between 2 and 12, you'll get three scores, for Reading, Analysis, and Writing, between 2 and 8.
You get lots of subscores: As part of its attempt to provide more helpful information to colleges, the College Board now provides several subscores and cross-test scores for the SAT: Analysis in History/Social Studies, Analysis in Science, Command of Evidence, Words in Context, Expression of Ideas, Standard English Conventions, Heart of Algebra, Problem Solving and Data Analysis, and Passport to Advanced Math. That said, it's unclear how (or if) colleges use these scores, so don't worry about them for now.
On the other hand, ACT scoring stayed mostly the same. You get four section scores, each on a scale of 1-36. These are then averaged to create a composite ACT score, also on a scale of 1-36.
The exception is ACT Writing. This section is separate from your composite ACT score and scored on a scale of 2-12. Like the SAT Essay, it's scored across multiple domains, which are as follows:
Ideas and Analysis
Each of these subscores is between 2 and 12, and the average of these four subscores is your ACT Writing score.
Now that we've covered the big-picture changes, let's move on to the nitty-gritty of each section of the SAT and ACT.
Jason Parrish/Flickr
SAT/ACT Reading Section
SAT Reading is the section that's most similar to its previous incarnation. However, there are still some big changes to note.
One is that the SAT Reading section only includes longer passages. Without Sentence Completions or short passages, this section now looks a lot more like the ACT Reading section, which contains a series of 500-750 word passages followed by several questions. Also, thanks to a recent change to the ACT, both tests feature paired passages.
These are just the basic similarities of the two tests' Reading sections, but how specifically do these two sections differ? The chart below shows the specifications for each test:
SAT Reading ACT Reading
Total Time 65 minutes 35 minutes
# of Questions 5 passages, 52 questions 4 passages, 40 questions
Passage Types 1 US/World Literature, 2 History/Social Studies, 2 Science 1 Prose Fiction/Literary Narrative, 1 Social Sciences, 1 Humanities, 1 Natural Sciences
Question Types Main Idea, Vocab-in-Context, Inference, Evidence Support, Data Reasoning, Technique, Detail-Oriented Main Idea, Vocab-in-Context, Inference, Detail-Oriented
Although the Sentence Completions and short passages have been eliminated, the remaining long reading passages look more or less the same as they always have, with a few exceptions:
Inclusion of classic texts: As part of the plan to make the Reading passages more complex and therefore more similar to what you might read in school, the SAT Reading section now includes excerpts from texts from the Western canon, including stories and essays by famous authors, US founding documents, and other historically important works. Because these are often quite old, they tend to include more challenging language.
Evidence questions: One of the big changes to SAT Reading that you might've heard about is the addition of evidence questions, which ask you to indicate what part of a passage supports your answer to a previous question. As these questions are quite tricky, you'll definitely want to learn effective ways to approach them.
Questions go in chronological order (for a passage): This is one aspect of the SAT Reading section that didn't change and that really sets it apart from the ACT Reading section, in which questions do not follow the order of the passage.
Charts and figures in science passages: Two of the five SAT Reading section passages cover scientific topics and include charts and figures. Here's an example of the types of charts and data you'll see, taken from an official SAT practice test:
The big difference between ACT Reading and SAT Reading remains how you need to budget time. Also, while the SAT is more focused on analyzing specific points in a passage and understanding how the author constructs an argument, the ACT deals more with reading comprehension.
Here are some of the key features of ACT Reading, in comparison with SAT Reading:
Randomly ordered questions: SAT Reading tells you where to look for the answers to most questions, but one of the biggest challenges on ACT Reading is finding the information you need. The questions are ordered randomly and often do not give line numbers, which can make finding specific details very tricky.
Less time per question: The strict time constraint is the other challenge many students face on ACT Reading: you have roughly eight and half minutes per 10-question passage on the ACT, compared with 13 minutes per 10- to 11-minute passage on SAT Reading.
SAT Writing/ACT English Section
Of the three SAT sections, Writing underwent the biggest changes (though if you've taken the ACT, its new format is going to look familiar). The current SAT Writing and Language section uses the same passage-based format as the ACT English section.
Here's an official example of an SAT Writing passage and the questions that follow:
SAT Writing also includes more of the same grammatical concepts as ACT English, most notably of which is punctuation.
SAT Writing ACT English
Content Tested Standard English Conventions: 20 questions (45%), covering sentence structure, conventions of usage, and conventions of punctuation
Expression of Ideas: 24 questions (55%), covering development, organization and effective language use Usage and Mechanics: sentence structure (20-25%), grammar and usage (15-20%), and punctuation (10-15%)
Rhetorical Skills: style (15-20%), strategy (15-20%), and organization (10-15%)
Despite the massive similarities between the SAT Writing and ACT English sections, there are still some noticeable differences. Let's go through them one at a time.
SAT Writing and Language
As I noted above, the SAT overhaul involved a complete redesign of the Writing section so that all of the questions are now presented in the context of reading passages. Here are other major changes to note:
The Writing section is included in your Evidence-Based Reading and Writing (EBRW) score: With the current SAT, the Writing section is part of the same final section score as the Reading section is; this change returned the SAT to its original 400-1600 scale (as opposed to the previous 600-2400 scale).
Slightly more focused on writing style: These days, SAT Writing has slightly more questions dealing with Expression of Ideas (writing style and argument) than it does targeting Standard English Conventions (grammar and sentence structure).
Includes charts and graphs: Like the SAT Reading section, SAT Writing includes charts and graphs with its passages. However, there are only a few questions of this type per test.
Some word choice questions involve challenging vocab: While word choice questions on the ACT are more focused on nuanced differences between common words, this type of question on the SAT sometimes tests knowledge of more traditional vocabulary words like those that were included in old Sentence Completion questions.
Again, the similarities between these sections are much greater than their differences, but the ACT does emphasize slightly different skills than the SAT does.
Here are the main features of the ACT English section and how they differ from the SAT Writing section:
A lot more questions: ACT English has almost twice as many questions as SAT Writing. This doesn't necessarily make it more difficult, but it does necessitate a slightly different approach. Read our guide for more suggestions on how to approach ACT English passages.
Slightly more focused on grammar and conventions: While the SAT has more questions about writing style, the ACT has the emphasis reversed: it's primarily focused on Usage and Mechanics questions, which cover sentence structure, grammar, and punctuation.
Big-picture questions: Though the two tests cover almost all the same material, ACT English has one type of question that SAT Writing does not have: main idea questions. Both tests ask questions such as "What is the purpose of this passage?" on their Reading sections, but only the ACT includes these on the English section as well:
SAT/ACT Math Section
SAT Math is the section that remains the most similar structurally, but there were some pretty big changes in terms of its content. Like the ACT Math section, SAT Math now includes some more advanced math topics, such as trigonometry and complex numbers, though there are only a few questions on these concepts.
SAT Math questions are also closer to ACT Math questions in style: they're more straightforward and test the kinds of math you learn in school rather than more obscure topics.
Here's an overview of the two Math sections:
SAT Math ACT Math
Total Time Calculator: 55 minutes
No Calculator: 25 minutes 60 minutes
# of Questions Calculator: 38 questions
No Calculator: 20 questions 60 questions
Topics Tested Heart of Algebra — 33%
Problem Solving and Data Analysis — 28%
Passport to Advanced Math — 29%
Additional Topics in Math — 10% Pre-algebra — 20-25%
Elementary algebra — 15-20%
Intermediate algebra — 15-20%
Coordinate geometry — 15-20%
Plane geometry — 20-25%
Trigonometry — 5-10%
The changes to SAT Math were designed to make it more similar to the tests you take in math class, meaning you're asked harder questions in a more straightforward way.
Here are some of the key changes to note:
Divided into a Calculator section and a No Calculator section: SAT Math is now split into two sections, one for which you're allowed to use a calculator and one for which you aren't. Don't worry about the No Calculator section too much, though, as it only requires basic calculations you can easily do by hand or in your head.
Heavily focused on algebra: As I mentioned above, one of the goals of the SAT was to make it more similar to what you learn in school and what you'll need for college. One part of this change was shifting the focus of the test toward algebra. Now, 61% of Math questions deal with algebra topics, including manipulating equations and expressions, writing equations to solve word problems, solving quadratics, and working with formulas.
More data analysis: The proportion of data analysis questions has also increased. Almost one-third of SAT Math questions focus on manipulating ratios and percents, in addition to understanding graphs and charts.
Very little geometry: With so much of the SAT Math section devoted to algebra and data analysis, there's very little room for geometry. In fact, only six questions ask about geometry and trigonometry, though the test still provides most of the common formulas you'll need.
Still has grid-ins: Like the old version of SAT Math, the current Math section has 13 student-produced response questions, commonly known as grid-ins. These questions require you to write in your own answer instead of choosing one from the options given to you.
ACT Math stayed more or less the same, despite some tweaks to topic distribution. However, the changes to the SAT have created some new differences between the tests:
Far more geometry and trigonometry: If you like geometry, the ACT's the test for you. One-quarter to one-third of ACT Math questions deal with geometry or trig. However, unlike the SAT, the ACT doesn't provide you with any formulas, so you'll absolutely have to know the common ones.
A wider range of material: In fact, ACT Math tests more topics in general than the SAT does. You might see questions about logarithms, graphs of trig functions, and matrices—none of which appear on the SAT.
SAT/ACT Science Section
While there still isn't a Science section on the SAT, the College Board has attempted to incorporate these skills into the other three sections. According to the College Board website,
"[the redesigned SAT] call[s] on the same sorts of knowledge and skills that students will use in college, in their jobs, and throughout their lives to make sense of recent discoveries, political developments, global events, and health and environmental issues."
The current version of the SAT includes questions that ask you to analyze a chart or graph in all three sections, as well as two reading passages on scientific topics.
The ACT continues to have a lot more science questions since it has a dedicated Science section. It also asks more complex questions than the SAT does, particularly with regard to experimental design.
SAT Essay/ACT Writing Section
The Essay is the one section for which both tests underwent a major overhaul. Moreover, both the SAT Essay and ACT Writing sections became more complex and are now optional.
Ideally, the changes to the essay create results that better reflect your ability to understand and build arguments, though it remains to be seen how many schools will require the essay section once it's optional for both tests.
SAT Essay ACT Writing
Optional? Yes Yes
# of Prompts 1 prompt 1 prompt
Scoring Domains Reading, Analysis, Writing Ideas and Analysis, Development and Support, Organization, Language Use
The College Board shifted the SAT essay task from one that asks you to make an argument to one that asks you to dissect an argument. Take a look at the official sample prompt below to get a sense of the type of question you'll be asked on test day:
Here are some of the main features of the redesigned SAT Essay section and how it differs from the old SAT Essay:
You're given a text and asked to analyze the author's argument: Unlike the prompt for the old SAT Essay, the current essay assignment asks you to read and and analyze an argumentative essay. You're then graded on three skills: reading, analysis, and writing.
They don't want your opinion: According to each SAT Essay prompt, it doesn't matter what your opinion on the issue is—rather, you need to explain how the author makes his point.
More similar to essays in English class and on AP tests: In keeping with the College Board's goal to make the SAT more accurately reflect the skills you learn in school, the SAT Essay task is now much closer to the types of essays you write in school.
ACT Writing
The Writing (essay) section is the only part of the ACT that underwent major changes. Nonetheless, it's remaining more similar to its old format than the current SAT Essay did to its. Take a look at the official sample prompt below to see what you'll be asked to write about:
Here are some key ways in which the ACT Writing section differs from the SAT Essay section:
Asked to analyze three perspectives on an issue: Rather than simply laying out a question, the prompt gives you three perspectives on an issue and asks you to evaluate them.
Must argue your opinion: Like the previous ACT and SAT essay prompts, the current ACT Writing task requires you to argue your own position on the issue at hand.
Need to generate specific examples: Since the prompt itself only provides perspectives on the issue, not facts, you'll need to come up with specific examples to bolster your argument.
Caleb Roenigk/Flickr
What Do These SAT and ACT Differences Mean for You?
I've written an in-depth breakdown of how to decide whether you should take the SAT or ACT here if you want to read through it. But for now, here are the important takeaway points as you create a long-term study plan.
Content Differences Between the SAT and ACT
The redesigned SAT is much more content-based than the old SAT, so if you're planning to take it, make sure you understand exactly what will be on it. Also, keep in mind that the ACT still tests more grammar and math concepts than the SAT does.
Check Whether You Need to Take the Essay
Both the ACT Writing test and SAT Essay are optional, so before registering for either test, check whether you need to take the essay. Requirements vary depending on the schools you're applying to. Even if you aren't sure where you want to apply, I recommend signing up for the essay anyway.
If you've decided to take the SAT, check out our in-depth study guide as well as our expert guide to a perfect 1600 SAT score, written by a full scorer.
On the other hand, if you think the ACT might be the test for you, try an official ACT practice test, calculate your goal score, and learn how to get a perfect 36 ACT score.
Want to improve your SAT score by 160 points or your ACT score by 4 points? We've written a guide for each test about the top 5 strategies you must be using to have a shot at improving your score. Download it for free now:
Alex Heimbach
Alex is an experienced tutor and writer. Over the past five years, she has worked with almost a hundred students and written about pop culture for a wide range of publications. She graduated with honors from University of Chicago, receiving a BA in English and Anthropology, and then went on to earn an MA at NYU in Cultural Reporting and Criticism. In high school, she was a National Merit Scholar, took 12 AP tests and scored 99 percentile scores on the SAT and ACT.


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Don't Shame Protesters and Park-Goers Over Covid-19 Spreading—Shame Corporations and the State
While demonstrators have been blamed for potentially endangering the public, the real danger lies elsewhere.
Natalie Shure June 5, 2020
Some of the highest risks for Covid-19 spread have been imposed by police. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Amid nationwide protests sparked by the killing of George Floyd by a police officer in Minneapolis, public health analysts — and the broader public — have debated the large public gatherings' implications for the spread of Covid-19. According to most accounts, a high proportion of protesters have worn masks, and are gathering outside where transmission is significantly less likely than indoors. Yet they have also gathered in far larger groups than is currently recommended, and are frequently spaced less than six feet apart. Some onlookers are irked by the cognitive dissonance of making exceptions for protests given the urgency of social distancing. Others have countered that fighting systemic racism is a powerful public health measure in itself.
What this debate illustrates is that we should have been thinking differently about risk all along.
Racial and class disparities in Covid-19 deaths have clarified the shocking degree to which anti-Blackness shapes health outcomes, an issue deeply intertwined with how brutally Black communities are policed. Nonetheless, such arguments in favor of large protests do sit somewhat uncomfortably beside absolutist lockdown measures that have prevailed in many cities and states, some of which have gone so far as to shutter public parks while policing social distancing violations in the name of public health.
But what this debate illustrates is that we should have been thinking differently about risk all along. Coronavirus infection control has taken many forms, including measures such as school and business closures as well as the implementation of new social distancing protocols for services that remain open. It's also entailed stringent rules governing individual behavior, reinforced by enforcement mechanisms ranging from policing to vitriolic shaming on social media. But there are two fundamental problems with this approach: it frames viral transmission as the result of selfish choices, and misunderstands who gets sick to begin with. Covid-19 is largely spread between people who had little chance to avoid exposure, who were pitted together in their own homes, by the state, or by their bosses.
While all of us should practice sensible, solidaristic risk reduction, more powerful actors — from police forces to politicians and corporations — bear structural responsibility for the extent of the outbreak.
The protests may well turn out to illustrate this very dynamic. While protesters attending the outdoor demonstrations have largely chosen to reduce the risk of transmission by wearing masks, distributing hand sanitizer and spreading out when possible, some of the highest risks were imposed by police: widespread reports depict officers corralling attendees in smaller areas and blocking accessible exits, packing protesters tightly together. Police officers themselves have frequently been observed without masks, and are themselves noted vectors for the coronavirus: at the height of the pandemic, nearly 20% of the New York Police Department was out sick, and police appear to have disproportionately high infection rates.
The use of tear gas by police causes coughing and eye-rubbing, both of which can facilitate the spread of the virus. Over 11,000 arrests nationwide have forced protesters into police custody where the risk of transmission is outlandishly high: people in detention are 2.5 times more likely to contract the virus, and 8 of the country's 10 largest outbreaks have occurred in correctional facilities. One study found that people filtering in and out of Cook County Jail accounted for over 15% of all cases in the state of Illinois.
Outside of the protests, it's even more obvious how little transmission has to do with individual behavior — the majority of Covid-19 transmissions occur in situations people didn't choose to be in. Many infections are driven simply by where a patient lives: the most common site of transmission is within people's homes, which is one of many reasons case numbers are higher in poorer, densely-packed households — often in neighborhoods that have been systematically starved of resources for decades. Rates are also incredibly high among homeless populations and within nursing homes. Essential workplaces with substandard protections and inadequate sick leave policies also put workers at risk, with major outbreaks emerging among workers in fields like meatpacking, sanitation and public transit. In some cases, employers are alleged to have contributed toward infection rates: several warehouse workers have sued Amazon over negligent safety measures pertaining to the virus.
In short, the vast majority of Covid-19 transmissions happen between people who were somehow compelled to spend long stretches of time with infected people: their family members or fellow inhabitants of nursing homes, homeless encampments or shelters; their fellow inmates; or other workers on the job. In many such cases, the conditions for transmission were laid by political decisions: the United States boasts more aggressive and expansive incarceration than any country on Earth, our lack of comprehensive and affordable housing policies have led to greater homelessness than peer countries, and our lack of union power has left workers less equipped to fight for safety protections and sick leave.
As such, widespread shaming on social media of individual behaviors like not wearing masks while running outdoors, or walking on a beach, have largely overemphasized the risk of transmission between passing strangers. While no activity is risk-free, individuals are perfectly capable of judging risk and modulating behavior accordingly, particularly if they have sensible guidance. But as epidemiological evidence about relative risks has mounted, public health messaging has been slow to evolve. Certain types of transmission appear to be quite rare: In one study of more than 7,300 cases in China, just one was connected to outdoor transmission. Touching infected surfaces likewise seems less dangerous than once feared.
These developments call for a reorientation of how we think about how risk is imposed on others, and how we navigate it for ourselves. As Harvard epidemiologist Julia Marcus told me, "People are making decisions every day about risk. And right now they're doing it without a complete picture of the relative risks of different activities that they may be engaging in. And now that we've realized this is going to go on for a really long time, we have to accept that most people can't sustain zero social contact." If social distancing guidelines have thus far been analogous to abstinence-only education, Marcus argued, it's time to move toward harm-reduction and teach people to make choices safely.
As the wave of protests shows, many Americans have determined that the moderate infection risk is exceeded by the risks imposed by the over-policing, systemic racism and poverty that stand at the center of the uprisings. The epidemiological evidence appears to be on their side.
Natalie Shure is a Los Angeles-based writer and researcher whose work focuses on history, health, and politics.
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Q: Add item into device Calendar by URL on page We would like to let a user with mobile device (Notebook/Tablet/Smartphone) add an event to his Calendar by just hitting a button/link/url from our MOBILE WEBSITE.
How can we provide this? (We read that this is not possible with an Stock Android Google calendar).

A: the button should point to a icalendar file describing the event (see rfc5545) when downloaded the client will then add the event to the local calendar.

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Tag Archives: Africa
Ethiopia-Eritrea peace deal provides momentum to regional reform – Horn of Africa Special Analysis Report
This intelligence report was written by:
Gautham Ashok – MAX Security's Senior Analyst for East Africa
And reviewed by:
Tzahi Shraga – MAX Security's Chief Intelligence Officer, ret. LTC from the Israeli intelligence community
Rachel Jacob – MAX Security's Regional Director of Intelligence, Sub-Saharan Africa Division
Ethiopia's unexpected move to implement the peace deal with Eritrea comes amid a series of reforms by new PM Abiy Ahmed that will improve the security of both countries, and the economic benefits of gaining access to Eritrean ports will likely ensure the peace's durability.
Eritrea will take advantage of the opportunity to emerge from international isolation and re-establish political and economic relations with its neighbors, though the lack of internal reforms for its notoriously closed society is likely to drive domestic unrest and tensions along the border.
Djibouti's regional position has weakened as its ports lose the near-monopolistic hold on Ethiopian trade and must hold on to its leases to foreign military bases to secure its economy, though these developments may undermine the government and raise the risk of civil unrest.
Somalia benefits from improved relations with Ethiopia and Eritrea in likely halting Eritrea's support for al-Shabaab, as well as Ethiopia potentially recommitting more troops to Somalia in light of its military withdrawals from the Eritrean border.
As a whole, the Ethiopia-Eritrea peace deal will improve the stability of the Horn of Africa and increase opportunities for foreign investment and growth across the region.
On June 6, the Ethiopian government unexpectedly announced that it would fully implement the 2000 Algiers Agreement, ending Ethiopia's war with Eritrea, as well as the subsequent 2002 Boundary Commission ruling that awarded contested territories, including the border town of Badme, to Eritrea.
During a joint meeting in Asmara on July 8, Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki announced that they agreed to set up embassies in their respective countries and resume flights and direct phone connections. On September 11, the Ethiopian government announced that the armed forces of both Ethiopia and Eritrea would be shifted back from their shared border. Border points were later opened for trade and movement of people for the first time in 20 years.
On July 23, Eritrean President Isaias announced that nationwide compulsory conscription would last only for 18 months, instead of lifetime service, due to "changed dynamics" in the region.
Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia signed a tripartite agreement to strengthen political, economic, social, and security ties on September 5 in a meeting in Asmara. They formed a joint committee to further coordinate on these matters.
On September 7, Eritrea and Djibouti agreed to normalize ties more than a decade after a border dispute at Cape Dumeira led to military clashes and the establishment of a peacekeeping operation.
Since taking office in April, Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed has taken a series of steps that have transformed the political map and begun to restore public trust in the government. PM Abiy ordered the release of thousands of political prisoners, met with the political opposition and civil society, invited previously exiled opposition groups to return to Ethiopia, and embarked on major institutional reforms, including in economic, security, and justice sectors. The most significant of these was the implementation of peace with Eritrea. The announcement, and quick moves toward reconciliation with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, underscores the shift that Abiy brought to the Ethiopian government and ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition. Although previous Ethiopian leaders had called for peace with Eritrea, no effort was made toward that end, and animosity between the leading Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Eritrean government from Eritrea's liberation war meant there was little chance of progress. Abiy's ascension, and that he is an Oromo and lacked much of the political constraints that weighed down previous Ethiopian leaders, likely made it much easier to restart relations with Eritrea.
Security Implications – One of the clearer benefits of revitalizing the 2000 Algiers Agreement is its effect on the security landscape. First and foremost, it reduces the potential for conflict along the Ethiopian-Eritrean border, which had flared up periodically, with the most recent exchange of fire in July 2017. Moreover, both Ethiopia and Eritrea have sponsored rebel groups in each other's countries, with groups such as Patriotic Ginbot 7 and various Amhara militias receiving funding and supplies from Eritrea, including physical bases of support in Eritrean territory.
FORECAST: Although it is likely that there will still be some measure of support by both countries to the others' rebel groups, as they will continue to seek to limit their neighbors' power as is seen across eastern Africa, this is likely to be substantially reduced. The reconciliation with Eritrea drastically reduces this threat inside Ethiopia, particularly as it has been coupled with efforts by PM Abiy to reach out to armed opposition groups and reintegrate them into civilian political life.
Political Indications – This was also an astute political maneuver by Abiy, which has largely worked. The new peace deal has widespread support in Ethiopia as well as the international community as a whole, and both of which are crucial to both consolidating his leadership and expanding Ethiopia's influence. The contested town of Badme along the border saw isolated protests, but major protests that were expected out of Tigray Region, which takes up most of Ethiopia's border with Eritrea, did not manifest. Apart from a series of statements demanding the government take into consideration the views of concerned stakeholders, the lack of public resistance from the TPLF further underscores their gradual sidelining in Ethiopian politics by Abiy and his Oromo party, the Oromo Peoples' Democratic Organization (OPDO).
Economic Potential – Economically, the peace deal will give Ethiopia access to the underdeveloped Eritrean market and allow for exports to flow through the Red Sea. Ethiopia has relied on the ports of neighboring countries, especially Djibouti, to transit almost all of its bulky goods and services since the country became landlocked with the loss of Eritrea in 1993. This often incurred high prices, as Djibouti exploited its unique advantage as Ethiopia's primary route to the sea. That these developments with Eritrea has led to the opening up of Eritrean ports and new plans to construct roads and railways between Ethiopia and the Eritrean ports of Massawa and Assab underscores the economic motivations for peace.
FORECAST: Using the Eritrean ports would allow Ethiopia more scope to ship its goods, as well as gain bargaining leverage with other ports it uses, particularly in Djibouti as well as more recently in Somaliland. This will expand Ethiopia's options in drawing foreign investment, which would alleviate the country's acute foreign exchange crisis. As a whole, these economic and financial interests are likely one of the key indicators that the peace deal with Eritrea will be durable.
Internal Developments – For decades, Eritrea has been a notoriously closed country, with authoritarian rule and little freedom of movement or information. The armed conflict and subsequent "no peace, no war" status quo with Ethiopia only exacerbated the situation in the country, as President Isaias utilized the external threats to consolidate internal control. The peace deal with Ethiopia, and subsequent steps to re-establish contact with their southern neighbor in terms of reopening border, represent positive developments for Eritrea's intent to open up to the wider international community. However, there remains considerable doubt over whether these developments will translate into real political change within Eritrea.
FORECAST: To this point, reports in October have indicated that high numbers of Eritreans are taking advantage of the new open borders to flee to Ethiopia, with nearly 10,000 crossing in a single month. Although bilateral relations have improved, the movement of people suggests that this has not been met with corresponding domestic reforms within Eritrea. The continued restrictive environment is likely to further drive the exodus of those in search of political and economic opportunity, though this increasing refugee population may put pressure on Ethiopia and cause tensions with Eritrea over the coming months.
President Isaias's announcement that nationwide compulsory conscription would last only for 18 months instead of lifetime service due to "changed dynamics" in the region was highly unexpected. Isaias has used Ethiopia's policies toward Eritrea as a means of strengthening his rule, presenting Ethiopia as an existential threat and blaming it for much of his restrictive policies. However, given Ethiopia's gestures toward peace, Eritrea's policies against its own people can no longer be fully justified.
FORECAST: However, if and when the conscription time limit is implemented, soldiers who have been freed from conscription will likely to return to farms or seek employment in towns. However, one possible consequence is that, given mass unemployment is chronic problem in Eritrea, the discharging of hundreds of soldiers poses a threat to government stability. This threat is likely to grow, unless the government is able to mitigate it by directing the new civilians toward employment in the new sectors that will grow to accommodate the new Ethiopian investment.
Economic Potential – Given that the Eritrean economy has largely stagnated from 20 years of international isolation and UN sanctions for allegedly supporting militant organizations in Somalia, it is likely that the government finally acceded to using its geographical advantage to reinvigorate the economy. The revitalization of the Assab and Massawa ports will also be crucial to Eritrea's ambitions of exporting potash, which is being mined in its Southern Red Sea Region and in Ethiopia's Afar Region. Furthermore, the overall increased trade links to Ethiopia, currently Africa's fastest growing economy, will serve as a reassurance for investors, as the economic ties will speak to the decreased risks of war. To this point, one important step in the process of bringing in Eritrea from its isolation has been the efforts by other East African countries to lobby the UN to lift economic sanctions. The joint appeal is likely to carry weight as it comes from countries such as Ethiopia and Djibouti, which were regarded as adversaries only months earlier.
Military Opportunities – In addition, it is likely that Eritrea hopes to become a key component of the region's security architecture given that it is located on the Red Sea near the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a shipping choke-point used by oil tankers and other cargo vessels moving through the Suez Canal. The UAE has already used this geographical advantage to set up a military base in Assab, with additional bases representing another potentially lucrative source of income.
FORECAST: If the Eritrean government does genuinely allow reforms and an improvement of its human rights record, it is possible that other countries could choose to establish military bases in Eritrea, as they have done in Djibouti, which could further boost the economy and consolidate Eritrea's military and political power in the region.
Economic Ramifications – One major effect of the Ethiopia-Eritrea rapprochement has been on neighboring Djibouti and its economic dependence on providing the landlocked Ethiopia with a port. Djibouti's relative political stability and investor-friendly atmosphere have made it a regional hub for deep-sea shipping and has enjoyed a near-monopoly on moving goods to and from Ethiopia, with 95 percent of Ethiopian trade flowing through its ports. Profits from Ethiopian trade account for 1.5 billion USD annually and are a key source of government revenue, making the moves to develop Massawa and Assab ports in Eritrea is more or less catastrophic for Djibouti. This additionally comes alongside Ethiopian investment in Berbera Port in Somaliland, further diversifying its trade routes and weakening Djibouti's position. This likely forced President Ismail Omar Guelleh's hand in normalizing relations with Eritrea and restoring diplomatic ties. Although the Djibouti Embassy in Somalia had initially expressed surprise at Somalia's call for UN sanctions on Eritrea to be lifted, Guelleh reversed course within six days to restore relations with Eritrea. This quick turnaround is suggestive of the Guelleh government's understanding of the peace deal's momentum and their unwillingness to remain isolated amid the region's reconciliation.
FORECAST: With the thaw between Ethiopia and Eritrea increasing economic pressure, it is likely that Djibouti will increase its dependence on its other pillar, which is renting out land for foreign military bases. Djibouti has exploited its strategic coastline on the Red Sea to offer its territory for military bases, now hosting six foreign powers, including the US, France, Japan, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and China. However, this is also a delicate situation, as Djibouti allegedly upset the US when it allowed the construction of the Chinese base near the US's facilities at Camp Lemonnier. This highlights the small country's need to balance the extraction of as much value as possible from retning its land with keeping its client states content. Moreover, the emergence of Eritrea and its possible improving position within the international community could further undercut Djibouti's position on the Red Sea.
Regional Relationships – An additional complication for Djibouti has been the involvement of Arab Gulf states in brokering peace in the Horn of Africa, with indications that the UAE played a major role in urging Eritrean President Isaias to accept Ethiopia's overtures. Djibouti has seen its relationship with the UAE deteriorate since February, after the Djiboutian government canceled the contract of a Dubai-based company to operate its main container shipping terminal at Doraleh. The UAE took the matter to international arbitration, which ruled in the Dubai company's favor, though Djibouti has refused to return the facility, stating that it does not recognize the arbitration court's jurisdiction. This conflict raises further doubts over Djibouti's reliability as an investment destination when the country is already at a somewhat precarious moment.
FORECAST: With that said, it is unlikely that Ethiopia will cease using Djibouti's port facilities altogether as it would not want to be overly reliant upon Eritrea. However, this exposes Djibouti's somewhat insecure position, as shipping and land lease profits directly supplement the President Guelleh's tight political control over Djibouti. Moreover, it is also possible that other countries will grow to view Eritrea as a preferable location for their military bases and likewise terminate contracts with Djibouti. Speculation that the government is at risk of losing its key sources of income may undermine Guelleh's leadership and increase the government's vulnerability to popular grievances about corruption and repression. Civil unrest is relatively uncommon in Djibouti City at this time, with occasional protests occurring in Tadjourah. Given the already poor socioeconomic conditions in much of the country, this loss in revenue increases the overall risks of popular unrest.
Potential Improvement in Security – The tripartite deal signed by Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia in September represents a major breakthrough in relations between the three countries. Somalia and Ethiopia have been historical enemies, while Somalia's strained relations with Eritrea date back more than a decade. Eritrea reportedly provided funding, weapons, and training to al-Shabaab when it first formed in 2006, as Eritrea had hoped to encourage an anti-Ethiopia government in Somalia. This eventually led to the UN imposing sanctions on Eritrea, with Security Council monitoring indicating that Eritrea did not halt its support for al-Shabaab during the interim years. That Somalia asked for sanctions to be lifted in July underscores the thaw in relations that was further cemented by the signing of the agreement.
FORECAST: More crucially, it is possible that Eritrea's improved relations with Ethiopia will disincentivize Eritrea from supplying al-Shabaab in opposition to Ethiopia, which could have a positive effect on the Somali government's struggle to defeat the militant group for control over the southern half of the country.
The implementation of the peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea may also result in something of a shift on the ground in Somalia. Ethiopia has thousands of troops deployed in Somalia, both as part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) as well as part of a separate bilateral defense agreement with the Mogadishu government. In 2016, thousands of Ethiopian soldiers withdrew from central Somalia during a period of intense unrest in Ethiopia and were suspected to be re-deployed to suppress internal unrest at home.
FORECAST: It is possible that with the withdrawal of forces from the Eritrean border that Ethiopia may recommit more of its military to its front lines in Somalia. This could be particularly key given that AMISOM is slated to begin its withdrawal in February 2019, which would leave critical gaps that the Somali military is yet unable to fill. In this context, the movement of troops would allow the Ethiopian government extra security against al-Shabaab, while also influencing further pro-Ethiopia policy in Mogadishu.
Regional, International Relations – Another likely reason for Somalia's interest in normalizing ties with both Eritrea and Ethiopia is that it can viewed as a way to manage its ongoing tensions with the Arab Gulf states, which has caused a rift within Somalia's own federal government as well as affected the financial investment it receives. Somalia has had strained relations with the UAE since April and has grown somewhat isolated as the only country in the region that is perceived as aligning with Qatar, a rival of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Eritrea and Ethiopia's favor toward the UAE and Saudi Arabia has been clear with the establishment of the Gulf military bases in their countries as well as other economic deals. Ethiopia has already played a mediating role between Somalia and the UAE in recent months, which has resulted in financial benefits as the UAE agreed to give 1 billion USD to Ethiopia to ease its foreign currency shortages, after which Somalia signed an agreement for joint investment with Ethiopia to develop its ports. To this point, an improvement in ties with Ethiopia and Eritrea may ease Somalia's reconciliation with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which could be financially lucrative and politically beneficial as Mogadishu seeks reconciliation within its government.
Travel to Addis Ababa may continue while maintaining heightened vigilance in crowded areas in high threat of non-violent personal property crime.
Travel to Asmara may continue while adhering to proper administrative procedures and following general security protocols.
Travel to Djibouti City may continue while adhering to standard security precautions regarding the risk of crime and civil unrest.
We continue to advise against all travel to Somalia with the exception of the Puntland and Somaliland regions. Travel within these regions should be restricted to cities and be for essential purposes only, while avoiding travel to outlying areas.
Appendix – Background
Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn abruptly resigned on February 15, announcing on state television that it would be necessary for reforms. Subsequently, on April 2, Abiy Ahmed was selected to be PM in a vote by the council of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). This became the first time in Ethiopia's history that the ruler is an ethnic Oromo.
The EPRDF was formed in 1988 as a rebel group, and later transformed into a political coalition consisting of four ethno-regional political parties: the Oromo Peoples' Democratic Organization (OPDO), Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM), and Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Of these, the TPLF was dominant, with the minority Tigrayans holding an outsize role in the government, military, and economy.
Following a 30-year war of independence, Eritrea voted for its independence in a referendum in 1993, after which Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) leader Isaias Afwerki came to power as the first, and only, president of Eritrea.
In 1998, border clashes between Ethiopian and Eritrean troops over the disputed town of Badme led to a full-scale war in which approximately 70,000 people were killed. A peace agreement was brokered in 2000 to cease hostilities as well as establish a commission to delimit the border.
Thus, in 2002, Ethiopia accepted "in principle" the ruling of the Boundary Commission ruling that the border village of Badme belonged to Eritrea, though nonetheless refused to hand over the disputed territory and withdraw its soldiers.
Subsequently, a policy of "no peace, no war" was adopted by Ethiopia, in which soldiers were permanently stationed at the shared border and in disputed areas, while diplomatic relations were severed. Although there were occasional and brief border skirmishes, this largely held true until 2018.
Boko Haram's abduction, subsequent release of 104 schoolgirls in Dapchi likely to increase group's notoriety, legitimacy among locals – Nigeria Analysis
Militants attacked a government school in Dapchi village, Burasari Local Government Area (LGA) in Yobe State and abducted 110 students and two other children on February 19.
Following extensive negotiations with the Nigerian government that resulted in the safe return of 104 of the schoolgirls and the other two children after one month in captivity, Boko Haram has been able to once again garner international attention and portray themselves as a viable threat in Nigeria's northeastern region despite extensive counterinsurgency operations.
In light of the upcoming general elections in 2019, the girls' safe return has been projected by President Muhammadu Buhari's administration as a triumph, which seems to have paved the way for the government's appeasement stance toward the insurgency.
However, the incident has highlighted the administration's propaganda of exaggerated success against the militant group and is poised to create backlash in the form of domestic and international criticism for Buhari's policies concerning the insurgency.
We continue to advise against all travel to the northeastern Nigerian states of Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe, given the ongoing Boko Haram insurgency and extreme insecurity in the region.
President Muhammadu Buhari issued a statement on February 24 expressing his concern about the abduction, claiming that the situation was a "national disaster". On the same day, the opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP) issued a counterstatement blaming Buhari for issuing exaggerated statistics suggesting that Boko Haram had been completely decimated, a situation that they claim put unsuspecting citizens in danger.
On March 12, Borno State authorities announced the closure of all boarding schools in 25 out of the 27 state's LGAs due to the threat of Boko Haram militants conducting additional abductions. This came in wake of President Buhari's decision to engage in negotiations for the release of the schoolgirls.
During the early morning hours of March 21, 106 abductees, including 104 schoolgirls and the two additional children, were dropped off in the middle of Dapchi by their captors, who also warned the locals against sending the girls to Western-style schools. While five of the remaining abductees reportedly died due to exhaustion, one Christian girl remains in the militants' custody. The Nigerian government characterized the release as "unconditional", though some sources citing locals indicate that authorities did free several militants who joined the kidnappers, while other sources suggest that the Nigerian government had paid a ransom to secure the girls' release.
On March 23, while receiving the released girls in Abuja, President Buhari announced that his government was ready to grant amnesty to Boko Haram members who were ready to accept unconditional surrender.
Meanwhile, on April 1, at least 29 people were killed, including six militants, in a multi-pronged Boko Haram attack on Akikaranti, Bille Shuwa, and Bale-Galtimari communes surrounding Borno State capital, Maiduguri, coinciding with the Christian Easter holiday.
Assessments & Forecast
Assessments: Following extensive counterinsurgency operations targeting Boko Haram strongholds, group attempts to reassert presence, garner international, domestic attention
Despite subsequent large-scale security operations targeting well-documented militant strongholds such as the Sambisa Forest and Lake Chad shores in Nigeria's northeastern region, the militants successfully launched the well-planned abduction of the Dapchi girls. Indeed, this incident resembles Boko Haram's April 2014 attack on a school in Chibok, Borno State, when 276 girls were kidnapped. The Chibok attack resulted in an extensive international outcry, triggered by a domestic campaign started by the families of the Chibok girls. The #BringBackOurGirls movement put the Boko Haram conflict in the international spotlight, particularly when the former US First Lady Michelle Obama endorsed the campaign. In this context, the Dapchi attack was likely motivated by the prospect of achieving similar notoriety. Additionally, the attack came in response to security forces' triumphant claims of the near-destruction of the militant group's presence in the region. Through the Dapchi attack, the militants debunked such claims and reasserted their continued operational capabilities across the country's northeast.
The Dapchi abductions rendered a successful outcome for the militants. While the federal government characterized the negotiations and the subsequent release of the hostages as completely "unconditional", it contradicted local reports of the authorities' release of several militants. Such conflicting reports align with previous allegations against authorities for releasing militants and paying ransom for militants, with the latest incident being the February 10 release of three lecturers from the University of Maiduguri, along with ten police officers abducted by Boko Haram last year. Under these circumstances, the suspected hefty ransom payment will likely be utilized by the militants to enhance and develop their operational capabilities in the region, which may have been hampered, to some extent, by the counterinsurgency operations.
Indeed, the government's repeated payment of ransoms without any resistance is poised to encourage the militant group to carry out similar large-scale kidnappings. Such a concern was further emphasized by the Borno State authorities' decision to shut down boarding schools across 25 of the 27 LGAs. Furthermore, the release of militants as part of the ransom payment reintroduces experienced and well-trained fighters to the ranks of the militant group, increasing their operational capabilities. This is further highlighted in the latest Boko Haram multi-pronged attack on April 1 that was reportedly coordinated by Shuaibu Moni, a top Boko Haram commander who was released by the government to facilitate the return of 82 Chibok girls in May 2017. Moni had previously appeared in a Boko Haram video on March 7 taunting the Nigerian security forces and threatening to launch additional attacks.
The theatrical grandeur of the return of the abductees as the militants drove into the center of Dapchi hailed as heroes by the local population for safely bringing back their girls was likely a symbolic attempt by the group to embolden its authority in the region. This sheds light on the militant group's propaganda aimed towards gaining the locals' trust and consolidate their influence in their areas of operation. As the militants shook hands with the locals and warned them against the return of the girls to schools for Western education, they compelled the latter to adhere to the militant group's Islamist ideologies. Through the dramatic aspects of the event, the militants effectively portrayed themselves as legitimate actors in the region, with more control than the federal government in Abuja. Given the communities' grievances against Abuja, as they continue to feel disregarded and neglected by the government, such an image of Boko Haram is poised to render the locals more susceptible to getting recruited by the militant group. Amidst the ongoing insurgency, these circumstances increase the possibility of better cooperation between the local communities and the militants, with the former providing shelter and engaging in economic transactions with the militants for their own survival.
Assessments: With 2019 elections nearing, Buhari makes strategic shift toward developing appeasement stance to overcome Boko Haram insurgency
Since President Buhari came into office in 2015, negotiations with Boko Haram in their kidnap-for-ransom schemes have become a recurring phenomenon, which includes the 2016 release of 21 Chibok girls and another 82 released in May 2017. Such a stance toward the militant group likely stems from large-scale international and domestic attention that these incidents received. Buhari has attempted to make good on his electoral promise of combating Boko Haram in contrast to the perceived failure of former President Goodluck Jonathan's administration to effectively defeat the militant group. However, Buhari's administration has also projected a stronger government resistance to the insurgency, which has led to a distorted perception of success over Boko Haram militancy in Nigeria. Continued militant attacks have highlighted the government's propaganda in displaying exaggerated data regarding the success of counterinsurgency operations and falsely claiming the defeat of the militant group. This may, to a certain extent, reduce Buhari's international and domestic credibility.
With Nigeria's presidential elections slated to take place in 2019, such an approach by Buhari for the safe release of abductees is poised to become his legacy. To further add to his administration's successes against the insurgency, following the Dapchi events, Buhari appears to have embarked towards an appeasement stance with the latest amnesty deal. It is likely that through these propositions Buhari seeks to strategically portray to the international community his efforts for a peaceful resolution in parallel to the continuation of counterinsurgency operations. Under these circumstances, it is likely that Buhari will attempt to negotiate with the militant group to reduce attacks in exchange for reduced military actions in the northeastern region.
However, the administration's conciliatory attitude towards the militants may be perceived by some as weak, with negative implications particularly by security forces, which may have a detrimental impact on the fighting morale of the soldiers who are endangering their lives in battle. FORECAST: As such, any attempts by Buhari to negotiate with the militants to reduce attacks in light of the upcoming elections, as well as the latest amnesty deal, may add to Nigeria's security agencies' frustration concerning the ongoing nine-year long insurgency and weaken their determination to actively combat it. Additionally, Buhari's administration is poised to receive substantial criticism from opposition political parties for their weakened stance towards the insurgency and their propaganda of exaggerating military successes, as evidenced by the opposition People's Democratic Party's (PDP) statement denouncing the Dapchi deal.
FORECAST: Buhari's latest amnesty deal offered to Boko Haram is quite similar to an opportunity offered by former President Jonathan in 2013, which Boko Haram's leader Abubakar Shekau outright declined. As such, it seems unlikely that Boko Haram will accept the latest deal, particularly given that the government does not seem to have any substantial negotiating leverage. Furthermore, the latest April 1 multi-pronged Boko Haram attack continues to highlight that the group remains capable of executing sophisticated large scale attacks in their traditional sphere of influence. Given the group's resilience in remaining a viable threat in Nigeria's northeastern region despite the large-scale counter-militancy measures, a persistence of the conciliatory approach by the government is liable to be detrimental to their interests.
Travel to Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt may continue while maintaining heightened vigilance and following heightened security protocols regarding criminal and militant activity.
We advise to avoid all travel to areas of Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad within the Lake Chad Region given the high risk of militancy.
President Zuma resigns on February 14, new president Ramaphosa to face numerous challenges in upcoming months – South Africa Analysis
President Jacob Zuma held a press conference during the late hours of February 14 and announced his resignation with immediate effect. On February 15, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa was sworn in as President of South Africa, replacing Zuma until the end of his mandate in 2019, after which he delivered the State of the Nation Address.
Immediately after Ramaphosa was elected by a parliamentary vote, the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) parties called for anticipatory elections to take place before the end of Ramaphosa's term in 2019.
Zuma's resignation came after the Executive Committee of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) convened on January 17-21, which was believed to begin discussing Zuma's potential early departure from office. Subsequently, on February 4, the EFF requested that a vote of no-confidence be held against Zuma, which was then scheduled by parliament for February 22.
The ANC Executive Committee officially recalled Zuma on February 13 and insisted that he resigns from office. During this time, the no-confidence vote was pulled up and rescheduled for February 15.
Jacob Zuma was elected President of South Africa in 2009 and has been a controversial political figure for much of his tenure, particularly due to numerous allegations of corruption. This has led to 783 charges of corruption to be filed against him, and additionally gave rise to the "State of Capture" investigation that focused on the corrupt relationship between Zuma's government and the powerful Gupta family. Following repeated attempts to hinder the investigation, Zuma was forced by a court ruling in December 2017 to establish a commission tasked with further investigating the matter.
South Africa's Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation, known as the "Hawks", raided the Gupta private residence in Saxonwold, a Johannesburg suburb, during the morning hours of February 14, and arrested Atul Gupta. The arrest was made in relation to accusations of the misappropriation of funds allocated to the Estina farm in Free State.
Although a no-confidence motion against Zuma failed in August 2017, he faced another test with the ANC elections for new party leadership in December 2017. Then-Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa competed against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Zuma's ex-wife, whose candidacy was perceived by many as a protection against any legal proceedings against him. However, Ramaphosa was elected to be ANC president by a slim margin on December 18.
Since his election as ANC president, Ramaphosa has repeatedly vowed to fight corruption. One notable and immediate example was his dismissal of state-owned electricity company ESKOM's board of directors, as it was marred by numerous accusations of corruption. Ramaphosa had also publicly come out come out strongly in favor of the "state capture" investigation.
Ramaphosa to focus on unifying divided ANC party ahead of 2019 presidential elections
Zuma's resignation as president of South Africa is the culmination of a period of political instability in the country since Ramaphosa was elected the president of the ANC in December and began his public battle against corruption, seen as directly confronting Zuma and his legacy. Given that a no-confidence vote had been scheduled to take place on February 22, and then expedited to February 15, Zuma likely resigned preemptively in order to avoid the humiliation of facing the vote, with his own party voting against him in alliance with the opposition. This serves to highlight the strength of South Africa's democratic institutions, as Zuma had clearly struggled to remain in power even after Ramaphosa's party victory, but nevertheless stepped down in recognition of parliament's right to dismiss the president with a no-confidence vote.
One of the main challenge faced by President Ramaphosa is of a political nature, as the ANC remains deeply divided. The uncertainty that surrounded Zuma's fate during the days preceding his resignation likely resulted from disagreement on the subject within the party. Zuma has continued to enjoy significant support within the ANC despite the allegations against him.
FORECAST: As such, Ramaphosa will face the task of restoring unity among the divided party. This will be particularly difficult as he will concurrently attempt to purge the party from corruption, a move that risks further entrenching of the existing rifts within the ANC. Additionally, while Ramaphosa will deploy extensive efforts to unify the party, there nonetheless remains a possibility that Zuma's supporters will leave the ANC in order to form their own political faction supporting the former president. Zuma clearly stated during his resignation speech that he intends to remain involved in the country's political affairs as an active member of the ANC. That being said, given that the "state capture" investigation is ongoing, with a high likelihood that it will result in a conviction and possible jail time for Zuma, his involvement in the political life of the country remains unlikely in the long term, and his supporters will likely lose interest in his leadership.
The need for unity among the ANC is particularly relevant to the upcoming general elections slated for 2019, as these will certainly constitute a test for Ramaphosa. This is especially highlighted by the fact that, during the Zuma era, the ANC significantly lost support among its base due to the criticism surrounding Zuma's political actions and implication in corruption. This translated into poor results during the 2016 municipal elections, as the ANC lost control of a number of municipalities including Johannesburg and Pretoria.
FORECAST: In light of this upcoming electoral test, Ramaphosa will need to strengthen the ANC's base of support in order to avoid a situation in which the party would lose its absolute majority in Parliament, a first in post-Apartheid South Africa. That being said, Zuma's resignation will likely help to revive the historical tripartite alliance between the ANC and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South Africa Communist Party (SACP), as the two substantially criticized the former president and raised Zuma's departure as a precondition to continue the alliance. With this in mind, and the precondition being fulfilled, it is likely that the tripartite alliance will re-emerge, thus consolidating the party's hegemony over the South African political landscape.
FORECAST: Furthermore, there remains a possibility of anticipatory elections, as demanded by the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) parties. While Ramaphosa may decide to proceed accordingly in order to rapidly strengthen his power with a popular vote in his favor, he will likely wait for the guarantee that the ANC undividedly support his leadership. Regardless, given that general elections are slated for 2019, the time prior to the next popular vote will remain relatively short in either scenario, and the anticipatory elections would likely have a low impact on Ramaphosa's political actions.
FORECAST: Over the coming months, Ramaphosa will likely focus his political efforts on overcoming the internal rifts within the ANC in order to consolidate his power. He will likely need the party's full backing to move forward with necessary economic reforms and a unified ANC will additionally be key to his success in the 2019 general elections. While the continuation of the legal proceedings against Zuma represent a focal point for tensions within the party as the ex-president still retains some support, the perception of Ramaphosa as a leader who fulfills his promises regarding addressing corruption will likely bolster his position as a whole, particularly as it will help to revive the tripartite alliance. As a result, Ramaphosa's accession as president will be a broadly stabilizing force within South Africa's political landscape, which will likewise enable his efforts to increase the country's economic stability.
Ramaphosa to focus on reviving stagnant economy, with risk of spurring protests
As the new president of South Africa, Ramaphosa will face a variety of challenges, with economic concerns likely to be the main priority. The country has suffered from a protracted economic crisis, with unemployment now at 27 percent and its debt downgraded to "junk" status by the main credit rating agencies.
FORECAST: Thus Ramaphosa will likely seek to prioritize the economic renewal of the country and attempt to restore trust among international financial institutions and investors. One focus for this effort will be to tackle the deep difficulties faced by state-owned companies after years of inefficiency and corruption, and Ramaphosa already began working in this direction when he fired ESKOM's board of directors and will likely force the company to be more transparent, something that is expected to be applied to other troubled state-owned companies. Alongside the broadly positive view of Ramaphosa by international economic actors, who perceive him to be a more pragmatic and fiscally responsible leader due to his business experience, these developments will likely bolster investor confidence and South Africa will be regarded as less financially risky.
Beyond addressing the economic fallout of corruption within the government, Ramaphosa has repeatedly pledged to make fighting corruption a priority as a leader. This objective had clearly underpinned much of the pressure that led to Zuma's resignation, and the pursuit of the high-profile allegations also materialized in the arrest of one of the Guptas, the family implicated in the "state capture" scandal. Ramaphosa's position is regarded in contrast from Zuma's, as he is perceived as more morally upstanding and has made his own personal fortune in business, which is seen to make him immune from personal corruption. FORECAST: Given his public commitment, as well as its relevance to renewing the economy, Ramaphosa will likely favor a rapid pursuit of the "state capture" investigations, which will likely result in Zuma and the Guptas' criminal conviction. In this matter, Ramaphosa is slated to appoint a new national director of public prosecutions, tasked with initiating criminal proceedings on behalf of the state, which will then impact the "state capture" prosecution. At the same time, Ramaphosa will likely continue to purge the ANC and dismiss other members if they emerge to be linked to corruption scandals in efforts to restore trust in the ANC as well as the South African government.
In order to further revive the country's economy, Ramaphosa may be forced to retract several promises made by Zuma regarding free higher education, which is a highly popular measure that cannot be realistically implemented by the government given its troubled financial state.
FORECAST: Reversing this promise will likely be controversial and could cause large-scale protests in and around university campuses, given that the "Fees Must Fall" issue has triggered large waves of protests over the past several years. This may come alongside other austerity measures that the government could be forced to take to improve its fiscal situation. This, in turn, would spur an intensification of similar protests. Given the country's active protest culture regarding socioeconomic conditions, austerity measures would likely catalyze the South Africa's major unions and opposition parties to organize demonstrations, often in Pretoria, Johannesburg, and Cape Town, though as is common, these will largely be disruptive rather than unruly. As a whole, this would translate into a somewhat more volatile landscape in the short term. However, Ramaphosa will likely pass expected economic reforms and, should he translate this into tangible improvement of the economy, the pace of protests will ultimately decline.
FORECAST: Ramaphosa's primary focus over the coming months will likely be the improvement of the economy to overcome the effects of years of corruption and neglect. Given his early steps to fire ESKOM's board of directors, as well as the positive perception of his fiscal acumen, his accession to power will likely help to create a more favorable environment to rejuvenate the South African economy and invite further investment. However, more responsible economic policies will likely require some austerity measures that will raise the risk of civil unrest, though this will be an increase in the already active protest movements present in South Africa. Furthermore, any surge in protests will likely be relatively short in duration until Ramaphosa is able to translate new policies into an improving economy.
Travel to Johannesburg and Pretoria can continue while adhering to basic security precautions against common criminality.
We advise to remain cognizant for any update on protest to take place in the upcoming months and to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of their location given the risk for associated unrest.
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The work is part of a worldwide effort to recreate the 16 chromosomes required for a fully synthetic yeast genome – a feat the researchers hope will be achieved by 2018 or 2019.
In 2010, the Craig Venter Institute synthesised a bacterial genome to create the first living cell controlled by artificial DNA. A year later, Jef Boeke's team at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, US, produced a partially synthetic chromosome for brewer's yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae). Being a eukaryote, yeast is genetically much more complex, with an 11 million base-pair genome, compared to the 583,000 base-pairs of Venter's synthetic bacterial genome.
Now, Boeke's lab has led the way to a fully functioning synthetic yeast chromosome III, demonstrating the validity of creating the remaining chromosomes for the whole synthetic yeast genome, a project dubbed Sc2.0, which could offer answers to fundamental biological questions and provide routes to new biotechnologies, including vaccines and biofuels.
Boeke's team mined data on interdependencies between genes to better understand the basic logic and genetic wiring that allow cells to function properly. When it came to synthesise the chromosome from oligonucleotide building blocks, all known destabilising elements were removed, such as transposons, a kind of jumping gene that can change position in a genome. The upshot is that the synthetic genome, when complete, will be more stable and therefore a more predictable cell type to work with, which is desirable for biotechnologies like biofuel production.
However, Boeke was surprised that even after deleting, inserting or changing 50,000 bases in the DNA that it still reads a lot like native yeast. 'We checked everything by sequencing the whole chromosome and we also tested the "yeastiness" and saw essentially no difference with normal yeast,' he says.
Ένα βήμα – ορόσημο στο πεδίο της βιολογίας έκαναν επιστήμονες από τις ΗΠΑ, τη Γαλλία, τη Βρετανία και την Ινδία, που κατάφεραν για πρώτη φορά να δημιουργήσουν εξ? αρχής ένα πλήρως συνθετικό και λειτουργικό χρωμόσωμα, μία εξέλιξη που ανοίγει το δρόμο για νέες επαναστατικές καινοτομίες στο πεδίο της βιοτεχνολογίας και της ιατρικής κατά τις επόμενες δεκαετίες.
Τα συνθετικά χρωμοσώματα, που σχεδιάζονται με τη βοήθεια ηλεκτρονικού υπολογιστή, θα αποτελέσουν τη βάση για τη δημιουργία μελλοντικών συνθετικών μορφών ζωής (κατ? αρχήν μικροοργανισμών και αργότερα φυτών και ζώων), με ποικίλες εφαρμογές όπως ο καθαρισμός του περιβάλλοντος από τοξικές ουσίες, η βιομηχανική παραγωγή νέων φαρμάκων, εμβολίων, βιοκαυσίμων, θρεπτικών ουσιών και άλλων «εξωτικών» υλικών.


4 zones were selected in an urban area. This purposive selection was based on HIV prevalence data, these 4 zones appear to have slightly higher rates than others .
Proxy means testing was then used to select households in these 4 zones. The selection criteria was based on a combination of household and individual characteristics.
I have data from 200 "treated " households from the 4 selected zones and data from 200 similar " control" households from 4 zones that were not selected.
Within these households, I am interested in assessing outcomes at individual level. I have personal medical data for HIV patients (300 observations), household consumption data (400 observations) and personal labour supply data for everyone in each household (1935 observations). First chapter of my thesis looks at patient level data, second chapter looks at household consumption data and the last one looks at individual labour supply data.
How I can proceed with creating propensity scores. I would like analyse the program's impact on both household level outcomes and individual level outcomes. Do I use a propensity score model defined at household level when I am assessing individual outcomes? Is it justified to use three different propensity score models for each level of analysis?
How do I incorporate the geographical selection in the matching? When I include the zone dummies in the logit model (psmatch2), I have a separation problem, with 6 of the dummies being dropped from the model. Should I continue to use this logit model? Or should I completely drop the zone dummies?
What do I do with HIV rate. The difference is there between selected zones and non-selected zones. However HIV rates do not appear to be correlated with any of my outcomes. I was thinking of using it as an instrument in IV regressions? Is it a justifiable instrument, especially when the variable is only available for 8 cluster zones? My preliminary diagnostic tests show its a valid instrument.
Can I also include the HIV rate variable as a cluster/geographic level covariate in PSM? Or do I exclude it as it appears more to be an instrument?
One way is to first use community level data to match communities that include treated people with communities that didn't. Then, across each of the matched pairs or matched sets, find individual level matches for each of the treated individuals by drawing controls only from the matched community. That would be a two-stage matching approach, and it makes sense if you think that community level factors are really important.
Another way is to simply load in the community level variables along with the individual level variables and match on everything at the same time. It makes sense when you think that community level variables are no more or less important than individual level variables.
In practice, the two approaches may generate nearly identical solutions. But such may not be the case for you, in which case you need to decide whether you think the community level variables are of paramount importance or not.
The matching can be done with pscores, coarsened exact matching, nearest neighbor, genetic matching or something else—whatever you like. There are benefits and downsides to each. I have used genetic matching because in theory it obtains the best outcome that either pscores or mahalanobis distance nearest neighbor matching can obtain. I have also used coarsened exact matching because of its transparency and ease of interpretation. Another alternative would be to use a generalized weighting algorithm, but I don't think there is readily available software for it yet (although some of Jens Hainmueller's current work seems to be promising).
On some of your other question: the separation problem with the zone dummies seems to be due to the fact that some zones had no treated or no controls. If there are some zones that have both, you might restrict your analysis to those zones. You might then do another analysis that then adds in matched data created according to the first option above.
Indeed, if you think something has the properties of an instrument, then you do not want to include it in the matching algorithm. That can result in bias.
Another question I have is this- four zones or communities in my data only have treated only. The other four only have controls. That is why I think I am encountering the separation problem when I add community dummies into the logit equation.
Most certainly that will create such problems.
I have few other community observed characteristics which I have included already, but how best do I then control for unobserved effects (especially endogenous program placement) at community level, if I cannot include the community dummies in the propensity score model?
Alas, you cannot. You need to make an assumption that the measured covariates capture all of the relevant differences between the communities, and then match using these measured covariates.
Should I also carry out further regression analysis on the matched sample, where I then include the community dummies (as fixed effects)?
You will not be able to do this because of perfect collinearity with the treatment indicators. There is really no way to account for unmeasured community level factors. The best you can do is use the measured information to match, and you can also include these community level covariates whatever regressions you use. Then, perhaps you can conduct a sensitivity analysis.
Or should I also look into using an IV with community fixed effects? Would this work for cross section data?
Again, you won't be able to do it because the community fixed effects will be perfectly collinear with the treatment indicator, so a second stage regression with community fixed effects would not be identified.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized on February 25, 2011 by Cyrus.
Great post, very informative. May I ask you a question on the same topic? Suppose I want to include only one or two random intercepts into my model (e.g., TSCS), instead of community-level variables as Nyasha did. Should I add the country/year indicators in the matching equation (as in fixed effect models) and again when running the multilevel analysis with the matched data? Am I missing something? Thanks a lot!
If I understand, Danilo, you are proposing to incorporate country and year fixed effects into the analysis. In that case, assuming you have many micro-observations for each country-year combination, you could match on micro-level covariates within those country-year bins (so, exact matching on country-year indicators and then whatever other algorithm you want to use to match on micro covariates).
Thanks for your reply, Cyrus. Yes, that's exactly what I meant, and your suggestion makes a lot of sense. I'll keep it in mind! Thanks again!


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Home » Real Estate News » Ambode launches sanitation corps for a cleaner Lagos
Ambode launches sanitation corps for a cleaner Lagos
Posted by: Rianat Sanni in Real Estate News June 30, 2017	0
Lagos State Governor, Akinwunmi Ambode on Friday launched Cleaner Lagos Initiative, CLI and the Lagos Environmental Sanitation Corps, LAGESC, to tackle the problem of environmental nuisance in Lagos.
At the launch which held at the Agege Stadium, Agege area of Lagos, Southwest Nigeria, Ambode said the CLI was billed to take the State into the desired future as far as achieving clean, hygienic and flood-free State was concerned.
"To roll back sanitation shortcomings and accelerate seamless cleaning of our environment, the Lagos megacity was in dire need of an enduring solution that would match the needed technology with the massive investment required for its attainment. It is this void that the CLI has come to fill by creating an environment for the private sector to harness international best practice in the vital area of solid waste management and consequently free public funds for other beneficial uses.
"As a result, residential waste collection and processing which is concessioned to a reputable and competent multinational Waste Services Company is being given a new lease of life with 600 brand new compactors and 900,000 electronically tracked bins, while wastes generated by the commercial sector would be handled by licensed waste management operators," he said.
Ambode, who was represented by the Deputy Governor, Dr. Oluranti Adebule added that for efficient collection and disposal operations, the State had concessioned three Transfer Loading Stations/Material Recovery Facilities at Agege, Oshodi and Simpson and three Waste Depots at Mushin, Ogudu and Simpson with the aim of rehabilitating, remodelling and retrofitting these facilities to world class standard, while engineered sanitary/ engineered hazardous landfills were being constructed in different locations across Lagos State under the Build, Finance, Operate and Transfer (BFOT) model.
Ambode said his administration shall continue to implement creative ideas and concepts that reduced the cost of running government and ideas that created a more beautiful and healthier Lagos, while Lagosians were assured of a more prosperous and happier livelihood.
According to him, "this is what the Cleaner Lagos Initiative represents as it aims to revitalize the entire Solid Waste Management sector to have far-reaching benefits and multiplier effects for the State in particular, and the country at large. The new initiative will usher in a new financially viable and technology-driven sub-sector to the Lagos economy, creating new businesses and job opportunities, including over 40,000 direct and indirect jobs with high poverty alleviation emphasis to serve as a model for the entire Country.
"To effectively regulate and monitor the sector, adequate institutional arrangements have been put in place. LAWMA is being repositioned to focus on its primary regulatory roles, while the Public Utilities Monitoring Assurance Unit (PUMAU) has been established to coordinate the modalities of billing, revenue assurance and enforcement of the Public Utility Levy (PUL), an annual levy which has come to replace the monthly PSP levy."
He stated that the Kick Against Indiscipline (KAI) Brigade had been transformed to the Lagos Environmental Sanitation Corps (LAGESC) to assist in the enforcement of the payment of PUL as all residents of the State, be it private or corporate, were hereby entitled to the payment of the PUL and were urged to comply steadfastly as that is their all important contribution to cleaning the State.
Earlier, Commissioner for the Environment, Dr. Samuel Adejare said from the outset of this administration, the government had prioritized environmental management in all its ramifications, saying however, that the complexity of providing a holistic and sustainable solution to Solid Waste Management and Sanitation in particular, implied that government had to take some time to thoroughly assess these challenges and carefully develop a strategy, which had led to the CLI.
He also said that the LAGESC which took off with 920 Corps members had been established to assist in monitoring and enforcement of environmental laws as well as help the Public Utilities Monitoring and Assurance Unit (PUMAU) in the enforcement of payment of the Public Utility Levy (PUL).
"The agency shall monitor and maintain surveillances along highways, streets and public amenities as well as regularly report any breach of the provisions of the law. This soft launch is just the tip of the iceberg as the government will soon launch other components of the CLI such as the Residential Waste Collection and Processing; Commercial, Industrial, Hazardous, and Medical Waste Collection; Secondary and Tertiary Drainage Maintenance and so on," he said.
LAWMA and Poor Waste Management Practices in Lagos State
Early morning fire razes building at Agege, destroys property
Photos of the Newly built pedestrian bridge at secretariat bus stop, Lagos
Mile 2 –Apapa road lock-down: Lagos loses N42 billion monthly to traffic gridlock
We are aware of the controversy generated by the revised Land Use Charge Law – Ambode
Ambode pledges quality education for Lagos children
Agege Agege stadium Ambode CLI environment KAI LAGESC Lagos Lagos State Governor Sanitation	2017-06-30
Rianat Sanni


text:
Q: How can I split variables that contain both a character string and a year by pulling the year into its own variable? I would like to split a series of variables from a df by pulling the year from each of them and create a df$Year variable. The variables are currently structured like this: df$Civilian_labor_force_2000, df$Employed_2000, df$Unemployed_2000, and df$Unemployment_rate_2000 iterated from 2000-2005. I would like to separate the columns into: df$Year, df$Civilian_labor_force, df$Employed, df$Unemployed, and df$Unemployment_rate. I can't figure out the code for colsplit(), and don't know if there are other ways to accomplish this.

A: An option will be to use pivot_longer
library(tidyr)
library(tibble)
pivot_longer(df, cols = everything(), names_to = c(".value", "year"),
     names_pattern = "(.*)_(\\d{4})$")

-output
# A tibble: 10 x 3
   year  Civilian_labor_force Employed
   <chr>                <int>    <int>
 1 2000                     1        6
 2 2001                     6       11
 3 2000                     2        7
 4 2001                     7       12
 5 2000                     3        8
 6 2001                     8       13
 7 2000                     4        9
 8 2001                     9       14
 9 2000                     5       10
10 2001                    10       15

data
df <- tibble(Civilian_labor_force_2000 = 1:5,
   Employed_2000 = 6:10, Civilian_labor_force_2001 = 6:10, Employed_2001 = 11:15)

A: You can pivot_longer the data
library(tidyr)
df <- data.frame(1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
names(df) <- c("Civilian_labor_force_2000",
                             "Employed_2000",
                             "Unemployed_2000",
                             "Unemployment_rate_2000",
                             "Civilian_labor_force_2001",
                             "Employed_2001",
                             "Unemployed_2001",
                             "Unemployment_rate_2001")

df_pivoted <- pivot_longer(df, everything(), names_pattern="(.*)_(....)$", names_to=c(".value", "Year"))
df_pivoted
#> # A tibble: 2 × 5
#>   Year  Civilian_labor_force Employed Unemployed Unemployment_rate
#>   <chr>                <dbl>    <dbl>      <dbl>             <dbl>
#> 1 2000                     1        2          3                 4
#> 2 2001                     5        6          7                 8

Created on 2021-09-05 by the reprex package (v2.0.1)