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Avation, Blog, Capital Market, News, Rail
Energy's Dynamics Disrupt Transportation Investment
Clean energy, zero-emissions, and an incoming Administration poised to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement. This year's Covid lockdowns have cut global fuel demand 30% driving a global drop in carbon emissions (down 7% in 2020). The lockdowns impacted transportation which accounts for 24% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Road travel (passenger vehicles and trucking) accounts for 74.5% of transport emissions. Aviation (which often gets the most attention in climate change discussions) accounts for only 11.6% of transport emissions. Rail freight emits very little – only 1% of transport emissions. By December year over year road transport emissions were down 10%, aviation emissions down 40%. Globally, U.S. and European Union emissions were down 12% and 11% respectively (China a 1.7% drop). In the U.S. refiners are idling plants in response to a drop in gasoline demand. In California, the country's most populous state, the Governor signed an order banning gasoline-powered car sales by 2035. Many expect electric vehicles will offer a viable option to reduce emissions if conventional gasoline-powered vehicles are phased-out.
The United States is the world's largest petroleum consumer. Through November U.S. rail carloads of petroleum and petroleum products were down 13.8% from 2019. Gasoline prices are turning higher on hopes the Covid vaccines will return the world to normal levels of oil-fueled travel in 2021 (West Texas Intermediate crude, recently trading near $45 per barrel, could increase to $50 per barrel). U.S. coal is consumed at electric power plants. Approximately 70% of that coal is delivered by rail; it remains by far the highest volume carload commodity for U.S. railroads. But coal volumes are down 25.5% year over year through November mainly because of the increase in U.S. natural gas production (due to extended fracking through horizontal drilling) which has led to sharply lower natural gas prices, making electricity generated from natural gas much more competitive.
Commercial air passenger flights are estimated to account for 73% of total U.S. jet fuel consumption. Lower fuel prices (U.S. Jet A1 Fuel Spot Price, December 11, $1.37) allow existing aircraft to remain in service longer as Carriers evaluate flights, using smaller aircraft where possible, and dropping routes that will not be profitable based on expected cargo and passenger revenue. As newer aircraft are delivered, their upgraded engines will offer more fuel-efficient propulsion, less noise, and less pollution. CFM's LEAP-1B (737MAX) and LEAP-1A(A320neo) offer fuel efficiency of 15% above previous engines. Pratt & Whitney's Geared Turbofan (A320neo, A220) delivers similar lower fuel burn per seat. Yet low jet fuel prices diminish the benefit of these costly new engine technologies. And OEM margins on new engines must be sacrificed to secure the longer-term and higher-margin aftermarket business.
The OECD's economic outlook expects the global economy will contract 4.2% in 2020 and then recover that loss in 2021. In the U.S., the forecast is for 4% GDP growth in Q4 2020 and 3.3% in Q1 2021. Even with the headwinds caused by a fall virus resurgence, the economy is recovering. With the distribution of vaccines, the level of economic activity will increase. The business case for transportation investment covers a 20-to-30-year horizon. Investment thinking requires identifying key trends and responding. Call RESIDO.
Glenn P. Davis, 312-635-3161
December 18, 2020 /0 Comments/by residco
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Avation, Blog, News, Rail
Air Carriers And Class One Railroads Reshape Their Fleets
Our current environment is the result of external market shocks. Nearly every air and rail transportation asset now is faced with an unexpected demand profile. The pandemic's lockdowns and stay at home orders have caused the largest global recession in history, impacting hotels, restaurants, commercial aviation, theaters, and live entertainment. Class One Railroad PSR business models are reshaping needs for locomotives and rail rolling stock. Business and consumer behaviors, habits, and preferences are shifting. McKinsey and Co. estimate that e-commerce penetration has achieved ten years' growth in the last 90 days. Some of these changes may be permanent, others may not*.
In September rail intermodal originations were 284,777 units, the fourth most for any month in history, up 7.1% over September 2019, and the biggest monthly percentage gain since December 2016. The intermodal surge reflects an improving economy as firms restock and prepare for the holiday season. August 2020 was the highest volume month ever at the Port of Los Angeles. Consumer confidence has rebounded. Auto sales are strong. The housing market is solid and home sales are now above pre-pandemic levels. The "HMI" (Housing Market Index), which measures builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes, rose to 83 in September, matching the highest it has been in its 35-year history. The purchasing managers' index ("PMI") has been above 50 for five straight months (greater than 50 indicates expansion). "Manufacturing performed well … with demand," said Timothy Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management, "consumption and inputs registering growth indicative of a normal expansion cycle… the manufacturing community as a whole has learned to conduct business effectively and deal with the variables imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic." Excess capacity remains: 27.1% of the North American Rail Fleet is in storage, and an estimated 1/3 of the worldwide aircraft fleet remains parked.
The global aviation passenger market and its related equipment demand will return once consistent international protocols that eliminate quarantine requirements are developed. The 737MAX recertification is in its "home stretch" as the FAA administrator Steve Dickson said after piloting the plane himself September 30th. Carriers are expected to resume taking deliveries early in 2021. By 2027 over 2,000 current-generation Boeing 737NG and Airbus A320ceos will have reached 25+ years of age and are expected to be retired. The MAX, with its improved aerodynamics, redesigned cabin interior, and more powerful and fuel-efficient CFM International LEAP-1B engines will replace these older units.
With the Fed expected to hold interest rates near zero for an extended period, core transportation assets provide attractive yield alternatives. If Democrats sweep in November, expect the undoing of Republican tax reform, more fiscal stimulus, and an attempt at 'packing' the Supreme Court. Shifting production back to the U.S. has broad bipartisan support so structural changes might be made to restore what has been lost to countries that have lower labor cost, lower environmental standards, bigger subsidies for domestic businesses, and cheaper currencies than the U.S. dollar. Air Carriers and Class One Railroads are reshaping their fleets.
Searching for opportunities that generate value and long-term success? Call RESIDCO.
*Microsoft is going to permit some staff to work from home on a regular basis, even after the pandemic fades.
October 19, 2020 /0 Comments/by residco
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Investment Strategies in a Low-Demand Environment
Air and Rail networks have lost substantial revenues. First Rail freight traffic due to trade disagreements, tariffs, and the downturn in coal, and then both Air and Rail due to the impact of the Covid-19 shutdowns. Economics remains challenging. The landscape that has emerged was unexpected. Air Carriers are zero base budgeting equipment needs, personnel (payroll support ends in September), and optimizing networks. Flying point-to-point with few passengers onboard is not economically viable. Legacy carriers are rediscovering the virtues of 'hub-and-spoke' systems which work to maximize load factors. Operators are retiring older equipment from their fleets, preferring newer more fuel-efficient equipment and technology.
An example is the jumbo jets which are too big for current passenger demand. The International Air Transport Association updated its projection of when it expects passenger air travel to return to pre-Covid-19 levels – 2024. This year, when Boeing finishes the last fifteen 747 freighters on order, 747 production will be discontinued. The last passenger 747 was delivered in 2017. Older 747-400s are not expected to fly again. There are only 35 of the newer 747-8 variant flying. These four-engine aircraft are not as fuel-efficient as newer design dual-engine aircraft. The pandemic has grounded almost all of Airbus' superjumbo A380s and Airbus will close A380 production delivering the last unit in 2021. The A380 was designed with little cargo space compared to the twin-engined A350 which has twice as much cargo capacity as the four-engine A380. With 500 seats on average, the A380 is just too much aircraft and too expensive to operate when most seats are empty. Engine issues have delayed Boeing's 777X which when certified will compete directly with the A350.
As fleets are repositioned trends are becoming apparent. The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of video conferencing. Many see this resulting in a long-term reduction in higher-margin business travel. We'll have to wait to see if Robert Crandall, former chief of American Airlines, will be right when he said, "You are never going to see the volume of business travel that you've seen in the past." Lower margin leisure travel is expected to return once a vaccine is available. But even after a vaccine has been developed and tested it will take time for acceptance and coverage. Then countries will have to standardize entry and documentation requirements for international travel to return. Class One Railroads, using Hunter Harrison's Precision Scheduled Railroading ("PSR") strategy, are removing railcar capacity, locomotives, and employees. Their focus is on reducing 'operating ratios' and improving short-term profitability.
The unexpected demand environment is forcing Bank Lenders, Operating Lessors, Private Capital, and those who service and support aviation and rail equipment investment to reconsider their investment strategies. Success rarely comes from projecting trends. Rather it comes come from insights that define future demand. Even with no additional Washington stimulus, another 1.4 million jobs were created in August, unemployment declined to 8.4%, and labor force participation increased to 61.7% (only 1.7% below its February level).
The best investment strategy in a low demand environment? Maintain liquidity, competitive market position, and key talent. Be responsive to opportunities that deliver long-term value. Call RESIDCO.
September 17, 2020 /0 Comments/by residco
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Transportation Traffic – Better Than Before
Global freight traffic flows are recovering. U.S. and German manufacturers surveyed in late August reported a 'jump' in export orders, "Container traffic is approaching the level reached before the corona crisis". In the U.S. seasonally adjusted imports (inbound TEU's) are up significantly on the West Coast, and Domestic North American Intermodal container volumes have fully recovered to pre-pandemic volumes*. The purchasing manager's index rose to 54.2 in July from 52.6 in the previous month (which was above expectations of 53.6, and its highest reading since March 2019). Economically sensitive Rail carload freight (excluding Ag/Petro/Coal) has improved but is expected to be down for the balance of 2020.
First it was tariffs and trade tensions that impacted freight traffic. Then the coronavirus lockdowns disrupted domestic and international supply chains. During the second quarter of 2020, the World's largest economies experienced the deepest contraction in six decades (record keeping began in 1960). The previous largest drop in a single quarter had been -2.9% in the first quarter of 2009. The pandemic exposed the strategic vulnerabilities of reliance on China as a sole source, low cost supplier. Unnoticed until now China managed to capitalize on our appetite for access to their markets. It has been a one-way street as China is now 'adjusting' their export of pharmaceuticals, laser technology, cryptography, and artificial intelligence, given the 'rapid development' of China's 'industrial competitiveness'. National security concerns will impact future trade volumes as the world's two largest economies drift apart.
Hope for a rapid vaccine deployment is keeping the Dow Jones Transportation Average near a record. But weakening passenger demand in the US domestic aviation market and continued restrictions on international travel weigh heavily on airline recovery efforts. The proportion of the global passenger jet fleet in storage has remained at approximately 33% with fewer than 30% of narrow bodies inactive versus more than 40% of widebodies. This reflects the proportionally higher passenger demand for domestic and intra-regional travel compared with international long haul. The most popular aircraft in the U.S. fleet remains the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus' A320/321 (the MAX is now expected to return to service in early 2021).
The Conference Board's July economic indicators, both leading and coincident, are pointing to a recovery. Economists expect a strong rebound in the Third Quarter. But as long as the pandemic lingers, the economic shock across the aviation and rail equipment leasing sectors will continue. As the recovery unfolds the big picture question will be how will existing aviation and rail equipment capacity (and supply chains) be efficiently managed while we wait for demand to fully recover? Despite low interest rates and fiscal stimulus, low utilization of existing fleet assets is likely to continue through 2021. Demand remains uneven. A third of the railcar fleet is in storage, railcar lessors are reporting pricing pressure on lease rates, aircraft manufacturers face order deferrals, and aviation lessors are faced with widespread restructuring challenges. We are better than before,but not yet back to pre-pandemic levels. The present requires the ability to identify investment opportunities that perform in this uncertain environment. It's time to prepare for the rebound. Call RESIDCO.
* Making Sense of What the Economy and Freight Markets are Telling Us, August 27, 2020, FTR + Midwest Association of Rail Shippers.
September 1, 2020 /0 Comments/by residco
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Sequential Improvements Point to a Recovery
Second Quarter year over year comparisons are down but sequential growth is evident in the third quarter. A timeline towards recovery is beginning to take shape.
Manufacturing is expanding (but from a lower base). Factories across the U.S., Europe, and Asia increased production in July but were held back by weak global trade (export orders were soft). Businesses are generally optimistic about future conditions and growth in manufacturing activity is expected to continue over the next six months. The U.S. Purchasing Manager's Index grew in July for the third consecutive month reaching 54.2, up from a June reading of 52.6. That's the highest it has been since March 2019.
On August 6, the U.S. Department of State, in coordination with the CDC, lifted the Global Level 4 travel advisory which had been in place since the end of March. "With health and safety conditions improving in some countries the Department is returning to our previous system of country-specific levels of travel advice." The virus does not appear to be spreading on planes due to air filtration, circulation, and mask requirements. Air travel and airports have not been hot spots. Delta's CEO Ed Bastian reported there have been no cases that have been traced back to air travel passenger contact when sitting in rows near a passenger who later tested positive.
Flight operations are focused on load and cost efficiency in each served air travel market. With current lower flight demand levels, newer narrow-body aircraft are more desirable. These are the first units returning to service. Older narrow bodies are next, subject to accumulated engine time and maintenance cycle demands. With country travel restrictions in place, long haul wide-body passenger flights are not economical. Many expect the Boeing 737MAX* (when it returns to service in extended twin-engine operations), along with the AirbusA321LR/A321XLR to be flying long-haul routes. These single-aisle aircraft are designed to allow point to point operations in a lower demand environment, making a business case for such aircraft to operate profitably on longer transatlantic routes in a recovering Covid-19 environment.
On August 1, 504,043 freight cars remain in storage (30% of the North American rail freight car fleet). But rail carload traffic (excluding grain and coal) is trending in the right direction. In July carload traffic originated on U.S. railroads averaged 208,403 units per week, the highest since March. Auto sales in July were their highest since February with North American carloads of motor vehicles and parts reasonably close to their pre-pandemic levels. It is well known that the consumer drives the U.S. economy and that consumer spending is driven by job growth. That spending is closely correlated with the goods related side of the economy. The economy created 1.8 million jobs in July down from 4.8 million new jobs in June, and 2.7 million in May. Over 9 million jobs have been created in the last three months and unemployment has fallen to 10.2% in July, down from a record high of 14.7% in April.
Sequential improvements are pointing to the beginning of a recovery. If you are uncertain about the future, include cash, cost control, maintenance of financing flexibility, and implementation of investment strategies that will protect your competitive position. For opportunities that can deliver that and lead to long term value creation? Call RESIDCO.
* The 737MAX has the same fuselage width at the B757 which flew trans-Atlantic regularly.
August 17, 2020 /0 Comments/by residco
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Unlock Pockets Of Opportunity
The Global economy is projected to contract 4.9% in 2020, with World merchandise traffic falling 13 to 32% and a 50 to 60% decline in air passenger revenue miles. In response, more than two-thirds of governments across the world have scaled up fiscal support with budget measures now standing at 6% of GDP on average. Covid-19 lockdowns, trade disagreements, and changing Class One Rail operating methods have impacted the cash flows and profitability of transportation assets that serve the Air and Rail investment segments.
Despite deteriorating economic conditions, Rail carload freight has remained profitable for the Class One Railroads. The impact of Precision Scheduled Railroading ("PSR") is evident as they have maintained profitable operations even with freight volumes decreasing (U.S. rail traffic for the first 29 weeks of 2020 decreased 12.8% compared to last year). Class Ones are focused on carload traffic which drives their PSR operating models. 'Pricing discipline', longer train lengths, and a reduced need for equipment and labor have improved operating ratios. The Class Ones are all reporting second-quarter profits (examples: CSX $499 million, Union Pacific $1.1 Billion, Norfolk Southern $392 Million, Canadian Pacific C$635 Million, Canadian National C$545 Million and Kansas City Southern $109 Million).
While Air cargo flights have surged, travel restrictions have resulted in a steep contraction of regional, mid-haul, and long-haul passenger demand. Second-quarter losses across all the U.S. carriers demonstrate this. Delta, the world's most profitable airline prior to the pandemic, reported a 91% decline in revenue and a second-quarter operating loss of $3.9 Billion (plus an additional $3.2 Billion non-operating write-down related to fleet restructuring and write-downs of investments). United's revenues were down 87.1% with a reported net loss of $1.6 Billion (after adjustments a net loss of $2.6 Billion). American reported an operating loss of $2.5 Billion and a GAAP net loss of $2.1 Billion. Southwest (the only investment-grade rated carrier in the U.S. airline industry) reported a second-quarter net loss of $1.5 billion (excluding special items).
All are parking portions of their fleets and adjusting network schedules as they focus on returning to break-even cash flow. The downturn has extended to aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus. Boeing delivered just 20 aircraft in the second quarter, down from 90 last year (their lowest quarterly total since 1963). Airbus delivered 74, down from 227. The International Air Transport Association aptly summarized the situation. At the end of 2019, the commercial passenger jet fleet in service was 23,710 units (including regional jets, single-aisle, and twin-aisle). The equivalent fleet needed to operate in 2020 is 16,360 units (at a 62% load factor).
Gulfstream delivered more high-end private jets in the second quarter (32) than Boeing's total commercial deliveries. Budget carriers like Southwest can set up and dismantle specific point to point routes based on profitability (legacy carriers need their whole hub and spoke network to work to stay cash positive). Yes, the recovery's timing remains uncertain, but transportation assets under a lease that span the expected term of the pandemic provide attractive alternative investments.
To find and unlock these pockets of opportunity? Call RESIDCO.
August 4, 2020 /0 Comments/by residco
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Market Realities Transform Transportation Investment
Liquidity buffers, loans, restructuring operations, cost savings. As the pandemic lingers it continues to depress economic activity.
The drop in passenger traffic is driving air carriers to constantly adjust network flight schedules and evaluate equipment needs and workforce reductions. United is exploring the possibility of a fall workforce reduction and American is considering similar plans. The major carriers are moving forward signing letters of intent lining up U.S. Treasury Department loans as their net bookings drop. Twin aisle and aircraft with higher operating costs are being parked. Newer more fuel-efficient single-aisle jets that can be filled with passengers more easily would be preferred.
But with demand down and list prices near $120 million, financing is challenging. United's CEO, Scott Kerby, earlier told an investor conference "We won't be taking delivery of a single aircraft unless it is fully financed." American's CFO has told Boeing it will not take delivery unless aircraft are financed under terms similar to those it enjoyed prior to the pandemic; "No financing, no 737 Max deliveries." Delta said it will not take delivery of any new jets this year. Of Boeing's 737 MAX on the ground inventory, 41 units are currently unclaimed (about 10% of the total parked). By year-end, as many as 155 may be without takers.
Airbus has reduced production rates of its A320 by one-third. Its CEO, Guillaume Faury, said in late April, "we're facing the gravest crisis this industry has ever experienced". The engines that power these aircraft are sold at a loss in order to secure long term service revenues. Ninety percent of Rolls-Royce Trent engines operate under service agreements that require airlines to make payments based on flight time. General Electric and its joint venture partner Safran (SAF, France) manufacture the Leap engines which power the MAX. They operate under similar long-term service agreements. The demand downturn is forcing Rolls-Royce to reduce production. It has resulted in a 17% workforce reduction (9,000 jobs out of its global workforce of 52,000). GE Aviation is implementing similar workforce reductions.
But discount carriers sense an opportunity as the legacy airlines retrench. Low-cost Allegiant Travel, CEO Maurice Gallagher Jr.: "I expect we will thrive in this changed environment." Jets at bargain prices will be available as the legacy carriers retrench and sell aircraft.
In Rail, U.S. Rail carloads improved slightly in June but are still down 22.4% from 2019. Carload declines continue across the board with declines in coal, crushed stone, sand, gravel, motor vehicles and parts and chemicals. Coal continues to lose its share of U.S. electrical generation. Despite declining U.S. rail volumes Class Ones are improving their operating ratios (operating expenses as a percentage of revenues) as they focus on equipment and workforce efficiencies driven by Precision Scheduled Railroading. A third of the North American rail fleet remains in storage. But lower operating ratios make more cash available. With nonfarm payrolls rising by 4.8 million in June the unemployment rate fell to 11.1%. As Glassdoor economist Daniel Zhao puts it: "It's fair to say the recovery has started, but that's not a guarantee that the recovery will continue uninterrupted." Its timing and path will depend on a Covid-19 solution.
As business models are being disrupted market realities are transforming transportation investment management. Identify and capitalize on current opportunities. Call RESIDCO.
July 15, 2020 /0 Comments/by residco
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Identifying Midyear Opportunities
Aviation and rail equipment lease rates and equipment values are stressed as operators adjust equipment capacity to meet current levels of demand (and adjust to the Class One Roads implementation of Precision-scheduled railroading "PSR"). In the near term, lessees are focused on ensuring the sustainability of their business by attempting to defer new delivery commitments and restructure existing lease terms. OEMs are doing the same as they adjust production schedules in recognition market demand will be lower until the virus clears.
The unknown duration of the path back to where the economy was before the pandemic adds complexity to evaluating equipment opportunities, whether under lease or currently stored. Secondary market values are often impacted by new equipment pricing and specific lease maintenance and return conditions if under a lease.
Technical factors also impact values. Standard configurations and deep markets mean units are easier to place. Special features can help equipment retain value. An example: a higher maximum takeoff weight enhances an aircraft's utility and consequently its value. If it's part of a family (e.g. A320/A321, or B737-800/900/MAX) equipment will retain value as operators benefit from lower investment in parts, equipment, and pilot training. Lower fuel prices improve demand for older aircraft. If fuel prices advance, demand for older units will be depressed, shifting operators' preferences toward newer, more efficient aircraft. Lease rates for the single-aisle Boeing 737-800, the 900ER, and Airbus A321s remain "relatively unscathed" with fleet weighted average declines of around 5% or less since January 30th. And data shows the more fuel-efficient A320neos are being favored over the older A320ceos (54% of the A320ceo remain in storage, compared to only 30% of the A320neo).
Older equipment may appear less attractive due to operating economics or functional obsolescence. But a lot of planes parked in the desert could offer better returns than new equipment. Fifteen percent fuel savings on new aircraft may not justify their capital cost. As demand reappears some of these surplus units might be economically leased to second or third-tier operators or sold to another lessor or operator.
For Air, more than half of the world's passenger jets are now in service. In Rail, the combination of lower rail freight volumes and the Class Ones' implementation of PSR has placed 31% of the 1.67 million-unit North American rail freight fleet in storage (520,729 freight cars). Maintaining customer relationships is the key to today's markets. Rail 'relationships' are being tested as rail shippers are being required to transition their operations to comply with the Class One's PSR schedules. Rail modal share will grow only if the Roads better integrate intermodal and trucking to give rail shippers an 'end-to-end' solution.
The U.S. entered the recession as the strongest world economy. Now, "The big picture is the economy is on the road to recovery and we have passed the worst". With fall elections approaching and an expectation of additional government spending on infrastructure, the recovery will continue. A return to moderate growth means the outlook is becoming brighter. Identifying opportunities is constant in portfolio management. Call RESIDCO.
July 6, 2020 /0 Comments/by residco
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Blog, Capital Market, News, Rail
As Demand Recovers, What's On The Horizon?
Domestic economies are beginning to reopen as evidenced by the number of TSA airport security screening checks. They totaled 87,534 April 14th and by May 25th had tripled to 257,451. "We're past the trough in terms of peak damage". Much of the pickup reflects the states' decisions to open parts of their economies. While global supply chains remain fragile the mechanics of transportation decision making remain unchanged. What is the payoff from the trip? Is it high value/time-sensitive? Where is traffic currently being allowed, and what mode is most cost-efficient?
Globalization fostered the ever-increasing specialization of labor across countries. The Covid-19 crisis has demonstrated the weakness of over-reliance on extended supply chains, whether for manufacturing automobiles, aircraft, or pharmaceuticals. 'Just in time' easily can become 'just too late'. An example: the U.S. relies heavily on Mexico for parts and vehicle production. Thirty-nine percent of auto parts ($60.8 billion) were imported from Mexico in 2019. Without Mexico, the Detroit auto industry will be unable to effectively restart production. Going forward the private sector must re-examine supply links, border restrictions, risks, and define solutions.
Increased taxes financed the spending that helped the U.S. get out of the Great Depression in the 1930s. From 1929 to 1939 the corporate tax rate rose from 11% to 19%, capital gains tax rates went up from 12.5% to 22.5%, and personal income tax rates jumped from 24% to 62% (the top marginal rate was 91% in 1960). With the current level of deficit spending and lost tax revenues due to lockdowns, it's not hard to imagine higher taxes. But borrowing now amounts to a transfer of economic activity from the future to the present.
With air travel demand picking up, how full will planes be? Single-aisle airframes generally have 3+3 seating. Leaving all middle seats vacant implies a maximum load factor of 67%. On a fleet-wide basis, the International Air Transport Association has said "social distancing would mean a maximum load factor of 62%." That would require a different business model than the airlines have been using. Break-even loads vary with changing cost and airfare fluctuations (in 2019, the systemwide beak even load factor was 73.8% while the actual load factor was 84.6%).
Class One Railroad operations remain strong with freight car velocity, terminal dwell, and car trip compliance improving. The Roads are running fewer and longer trains on tight schedules (Precision Scheduled Railroading). As traffic has declined, crews, locomotives, and freight car resources are being 'balanced' to meet the lower current volumes and improve operating ratios. New equipment deliveries are down and an equipment surplus hangs over the industry.
The Global economy: the European Union's borders remain closed to non-nationals until mid-June, and China has suspended entry of foreign nationals. U.S. tensions with China are escalating over trade, technology theft, the coronavirus, and Hong Kong's independence. Managing a transportation portfolio in this turbulent 'New Normal' requires an ability to identify and seize opportunities the markets are currently offering. As demand recovers, focus on improving your odds of success. Call RESIDCO.
June 16, 2020 /0 Comments/by residco
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Freight Demand Sustains Transportation Equipment Investment
Air cargo represents less than one percent of global trade by tonnage but amounts to $6 trillion worth of goods moved every year – more than 36 percent of global trade by value. Globally, half of that airfreight cargo has been carried on passenger jets rather than dedicated freighters. The rapid shutdown of passenger flights has eliminated passenger jet freight capacity, and air freight rates have responded, increasing significantly.
With the cascading passenger flight cancellations (and flight restrictions), air carriers are moving idle passenger planes to freight in high-demand routes, taking advantage of the very high air cargo market rates at a time when fuel prices have plummeted (American Airlines Group Inc. is flying its first scheduled cargo service since 1984 between Dallas and Frankfurt). As Asian manufacturing capacity comes back online, moving goods to the U.S. will further increase demand for airfreight. Equipment maker, John Deere & Co., is budgeting an extra $40 million in expedited freight cost for the second quarter to help ensure parts from Chinese suppliers can reach its facilities in Moline, Illinois.
Markets are telegraphing their uncertainty over how long the coronavirus will impact the domestic consumer activity which has driven our recent eleven-year bull market run. The sell-off that's occurring is being amplified by a constant media blitz of event cancellations, corporate travel bans, 'shelter in place,' school closings, and election-year 'coronavirus politics'. To stop the pandemic, we are forcing a recession. Near-term, the impact will reduce second-quarter economic growth. However, the politics of the fall election (and a $2 Trillion Stimulus package) will lead to a rebound in the second half.
While commercial passenger air travel has been turned on its head, U.S. rail freight continues to move the essential goods we need to survive. The slowing of the global and U.S. economies will delay domestic rail traffic improvement.
But, as the summer appears, and the virus abates, domestic manufacturers and retailers will need to play inventory catch-up. Companies will face such a need to restock there will be the potential for a significant freight traffic recovery in the second half of this year. Longer-term, rail equipment demand uncertainty has been created due to the industry's adoption of precision scheduled railroading ("PSR"). PSR (and trade) are driving the market dynamics, impacting rail equipment values and lease rates.
Rail traffic (excluding coal and grain) is down year over year (still up from January lows). First-quarter container volumes through the Port of Los Angeles, the largest U.S. gateway for inbound seaborne container shipments from China, are expected to be down 15% year-over-year. Spring flooding will impact traffic along the Mississippi. Oil's slide will negatively impact the demand for crude oil tank cars and the frac sand cars that serve the shale oil industry.
Air and Rail equipment values and lease rates are stressed. But consider what the markets allow. Volatility creates opportunities. Now is the time to look for those gaps, weaknesses, and areas of growth; ask "Where are the most productive assets available?"
We have some answers. Call RESIDCO.
March 30, 2020 /0 Comments/by residco
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RESIDCO's size and wholesale capability is a competitive advantage. It can respond quickly and flexibly to ever changing market conditions.
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2021 – Expect the UnexpectedJanuary 11, 2021 - 5:38 pm
A consensus is typically believed to be a rough picture of what is to come. By nature, we tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily. Not knowing any better, we extrapolate the future from the present. Most are now expected to be vaccinated by mid-2021. When the pandemic clears, economists think […]
Energy's Dynamics Disrupt Transportation InvestmentDecember 18, 2020 - 6:00 am
Clean energy, zero-emissions, and an incoming Administration poised to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement. This year's Covid lockdowns have cut global fuel demand 30% driving a global drop in carbon emissions (down 7% in 2020). The lockdowns impacted transportation which accounts for 24% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Road travel (passenger vehicles and trucking) […]
MAX Comes Back to Exacerbate Supply Amid Tepid DemandDecember 3, 2020 - 8:00 am
On November 18, 2020, the FAA rescinded its Emergency Order that had grounded the 737 MAX since March 13, 2019. The order allows Boeing to resume delivering the jets and will allow U.S. passenger flights to resume pending mandated fixes and additional pilot training. American Airlines had taken delivery of twenty-four MAX aircraft before the […]
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text:
Store → Agriculture → Other Tree And Bush Fruits And Nuts → Peanut Butter And Prepared Or Preserved Groundnuts
Germany - Peanut Butter and Prepared or Preserved Groundnuts - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Germany: Peanut Butter Market 2022
Peanut Butter Market Size in Germany
The German peanut butter market dropped to $X in 2021, declining by -X% against the previous year. In general, consumption recorded a mild decrease. Peanut butter consumption peaked at $X in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2021, consumption remained at a lower figure.
Peanut Butter Production in Germany
In value terms, peanut butter production declined to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a pronounced reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum level at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, production failed to regain momentum.
Peanut Butter Exports
Exports from Germany
Peanut butter exports from Germany fell to X tons in 2021, shrinking by -X% compared with the previous year's figure. Overall, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of X%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at X tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2021, the exports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, peanut butter exports rose slightly to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by X%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $X. From 2018 to 2021, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.
Austria (X tons), Switzerland (X tons) and the Netherlands (X tons) were the main destinations of peanut butter exports from Germany, with a combined X% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Italy, France, Spain, Poland, Sweden, Portugal, Belgium, Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic, which together accounted for a further X 2012 to 2021, the biggest increases were in Poland (with a CAGR of +X%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest markets for peanut butter exported from Germany were Austria ($X), Switzerland ($X) and France ($X), with a combined X% share of total exports. The Netherlands, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Portugal, Belgium, Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further X, with a CAGR of +X%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
The average peanut butter export price stood at $X per ton in 2021, increasing by X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average export price increased by X%. The export price peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the export prices remained at a lower figure.
Prices varied noticeably country of destination: the country with the highest price was France ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Spain ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Romania (+X%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.
Peanut Butter Imports
Imports into Germany
In 2021, approx. X tons of peanut butter and prepared or preserved groundnuts were imported into Germany; dropping by -X% compared with the year before. In general, total imports indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2021: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +X% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of X% against the previous year. Imports peaked at X tons in 2020, and then declined in the following year.
In value terms, peanut butter imports reduced to $X in 2021. Overall, total imports indicated a temperate expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +X% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, imports increased by +X% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of X% against the previous year. Imports peaked at $X in 2020, and then contracted in the following year.
The Netherlands (X tons), Luxembourg (X tons) and Poland (X tons) were the main suppliers of peanut butter imports to Germany, together comprising X% of total imports. Italy, Belgium, Romania, Slovakia, India, France and Bulgaria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further X 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Bulgaria (with a CAGR of +X%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the Netherlands ($X), Luxembourg ($X) and Poland ($X) were the largest peanut butter suppliers to Germany, together comprising X% of total imports. Italy, Belgium, Romania, Slovakia, France, India and Bulgaria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further X, with a CAGR of +X%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In 2021, the average peanut butter import price amounted to $X per ton, surging by X% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, import prices failed to regain momentum.
Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2021, the countries with the highest prices were Italy ($X per ton) and Luxembourg ($X per ton), while the price for India ($X per ton) and Romania ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.
From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Luxembourg (+X%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.
What are the largest markets for peanut butter and prepared or preserved groundnuts in the world?
China constituted the country with the largest volume of peanut butter consumption, comprising approx. 16% of total volume. Moreover, peanut butter consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India, twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States, with a 4.9% share.
What are the largest producers of peanut butter and prepared or preserved groundnuts in the world?
The country with the largest volume of peanut butter production was China, accounting for 22% of total volume. Moreover, peanut butter production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India, threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United States, with a 5.4% share.
What are the leading suppliers of peanut butter and prepared or preserved groundnuts to Germany?
In value terms, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Poland constituted the largest peanut butter suppliers to Germany, with a combined 66% share of total imports. Italy, Belgium, Romania, Slovakia, France, India and Bulgaria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.
What are the leading importers of peanut butter and prepared or preserved groundnuts from Germany?
In value terms, Austria, Switzerland and France appeared to be the largest markets for peanut butter exported from Germany worldwide, together comprising 42% of total exports. These countries were followed by the Netherlands, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Portugal, Belgium, Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary, which together accounted for a further 42%.
What is the average export price for peanut butter and prepared or preserved groundnuts in Germany?
In 2021, the average peanut butter export price amounted to $3,373 per ton, with an increase of 6.9% against the previous year.
What is the average import price for peanut butter and prepared or preserved groundnuts in Germany?
The average peanut butter import price stood at $2,984 per ton in 2021, rising by 3.6% against the previous year.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the peanut butter market in Germany. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.
• Prodcom 10392330 - Prepared or preserved groundnuts (including peanut butter, e xcluding by vinegar or acetic acid, frozen, purees and pastes)
• Trade (exports and imports) in Germany
World - Peanut Butter and Prepared or Preserved Groundnuts - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global peanut butter market.
EU - Peanut Butter and Prepared or Preserved Groundnuts - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the peanut butter market in the EU.
Asia - Peanut Butter and Prepared or Preserved Groundnuts - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the peanut butter market in Asia.
U.S. - Peanut Butter and Prepared or Preserved Groundnuts - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the peanut butter market in the U.S..
China - Peanut Butter and Prepared or Preserved Groundnuts - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the peanut butter market in China.
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Free Data: Peanut Butter And Prepared Or Preserved Groundnuts - Germany

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Here is a new design for my newsletter subscribers.
The first thought was that it would look beautiful as applique; then I changed my mind and I wanted to just quilt it.
Because the quilting involves a lot of backtracking, a good thread is a must. I used Aurifil.
The "practice" sandwich; it was too beautiful to not finish it into something useful.
So that I turned it into a pouch; I think this is one of the best ways to use such practice pieces.
For those more adventurous, I made the triple version below; it should look gorgeous quilted in the same way. You could try it first on paper.
If you want to try this design, subscribe to my newsletter below.
From my experience of the last years, the most appreciated gift you can sew is a POUCH – without a doubt! For any person on your list, adult or child.
They aren't only pretty, they are functional and keep the bags (and life!) clutter-free; a pouch does wonders for organization!
If you need some new pouches, check out my pouch patterns below.
Pattern #1 will teach you a WONDERFUL technique (you should know this technique, it produces unique pouches!).
The other patterns will make the zippers your best friends!
What a great design! You make quilting look very easy. I keep telling myself that if I had been quilting as long as I've been piecing and sewing, I might have a grasp on it, too. Here in the US, we will be honoring mothers this Sunday. The pouch would be a perfect gift for a mother. I have the pattern for when I get ready to try quilting again. I'm just busy with other things right now.
You are right, Susan, a pouch is a great gift for mothers.
This design was small and so easy to quilt! You could try it too, is FUN! try on paper first!
Thank you, Lucy, it was fun work.
I have made one of your quilts and an avid follower of blogs and emails. Thank you for another design.
Hi Sandi! Thank you for being here, looking forward to sharing new projects with you in the future.
Your creativity continues to astonish and impress me. As for me, I am off to get fabric to bind a baby quilt (just utilitarian charity work, but it comes from the heart).
How nice that you sew for charity, Sandy! I love utilitarian quilts!
You're welcome, Helen, happy quilting!
Todo es precioso. Me haz despertado las ganas empezar con el acolchado.
Good idea, wendy, the 28wt thread doesn't require significant tension adjustment.
I'm just getting started. Did you do that on your regular sewing machine with feeddogs down or walking foot or a quilting machine?
I hope I can get the hang of it!
It's free motion quilting, Libby, with the darning foot and feed dogs down.
Thanks for sharing the design. I really like it, and might have to learn how to make pouches, because it certainly did look gorgeous on yours!
And by the way, you pouche patterns are one of the bests I know!!!
This is a beautiful design and I look forward to attempting your beautiful design. I love making this for one of my daughters.
Thank you again for such a beautiful design.


text:
Larkin Callaghan
Global Health & International Development: Strategy and Communications
Tag: domestic violence
In Country of Sustained Conflict, Two Women Work Toward Peace
Few countries in the world have suffered from such a sustained period of war and conflict as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This Central African nation, the second largest on the continent, has endured wars resulting in over five million deaths since 1998. The country remains in a state of near-constant conflict, despite the presence of the United Nations' largest peacekeeping mission in the world, known as MONUSCO. Women have suffered disproportionately, particularly in regards to sexual violence, with the DRC being labeled the "rape capital of the world."
Spearheading efforts to protect women and offer services to victims are two lifelong Congolese gender justice activists, Chantal Kakozi and Josephine Malimukono, whose successes are noteworthy in an environment rife with gender inequity and militarization. Kakozi is the co-founder of Solidarité des Femmes de Fizi pour le Bien-Etre Familial (SOFIBEF), which addresses sexual and gender-based violence by raising awareness through media, offering psychosocial support to survivors, and pushing for judicial reform to protect women's rights. Malimukono focuses largely on women's economic empowerment, working with Ligue pour la Solidarité Congolaise (the League for Congolese Solidarity) to promote civil and socioeconomic women's rights.
"We have seen women taking the lead in the peace-building effort in the DRC, especially when it comes to sexual violence and gender-based violence, and also in promoting the respect for human rights. We've also seen the emergence of many women-led organizations at the community level," says Kakozi. This is particularly important, she noted, because of the erosion of social cohesion that occurs in communities where violence against women is so prevalent.
Kakozi, who has done significant advocacy work around the U.N. Security Council's Resolution 1325, says that in the DRC the implementation of particularly important since women and children are the ones paying the biggest price in the conflict. Legally, both women say, the government has said they are taking steps to ensure women are involves in decision-making. But practically speaking, that hasn't happened, both also report.
"In the parliament, I know that some women are advocating for political parties to have a 50/50 percent representation, but that is not happening at all," says Malimukono.
"It's an ongoing struggle for us when it comes to the implementation of SC resolution 1325, and what is written in our Constitution about women [being represented in Parliament]. We are not seeing that happen at the practical level, and we're still fighting for women to be able to access decision-making spaces and be able to add their voices in all forums of discussion on peace efforts and reconstruction," adds Kakozi.
Congolese women are pushing for their voices to be heard, even when they are shut out.
"Women have used their own money – they have saved and used their own money to travel and attend negotiations for peace. I want to give you an example – in 2008, there were negotiations in Nairobi, and we women from North Kivu province, we mobilized, organized, we used our own money, and we took the bus, from Goma to Nairobi," says Malimukono. Once there, the women were denied entry to the negotiations room.
In spite of these setbacks the women push forward, though security poses a constant threat to their success. In 2008, Malimukono's group built alliances with several militia groups by engaging with spouses of military leaders to get their message to male militia leaders.. As recently as 2011, they were hopeful of the work they were doing. But the uprising of M23 last year [a rebel group that formed in April in 2012; one of M23's leaders, Bosco Ntaganda, surrendered last Monday] undermined their work.
Given the increasing number of deaths in detention centers and the recently publicized rash of sexual assaults committed by Congolese army battalions – which, as Malimukono points out are often blended with former rebel group members – trustworthy partnerships in peace building seems more important than ever. Kakozi says of the more recent reports of sexual violence, "It looks like it's happening much more in places where the Congolese army and other armed groups are fighting each other. The unfortunate thing also is that we all know perpetrators of sexual violence are coming from all layers of society."
The widespread militarization makes it difficult to address the issue of impunity in these cases. They praise the efforts of some MONUSCO units, Kakozi in particular discussing how they intervened in 2011 to help securitize local tribunals that went after high-ranking military commanders who had committed rapes and sexual assaults throughout the Fizi territory. MONUSCO also covered the expenses incurred by Kakzoi's organization, SOFIBEF, from hosting many of the rape survivors during the trials so they could testify.
That being said, both women stress the need for more help from the mission in curbing incessant uprisings, which prevent the government from doing work that benefits its population. Kakozi says, "We are wondering about the effectiveness of MONUSCO when there seem to be newer armed groups, that seem stronger and are still perpetrating crimes – so we wonder how MONUSCO is doing its work in terms of preventing and responding to violence."
"Even if they don't have a clause about militarization in their mandate, they still have to find a way to help our government to do that work," adds Malimukono.
Despite these struggles with restricted access to the negotiations room and widespread militarization, the women remain dedicated. Last November, when Goma fell under M23, Malimukono says women from the North Kivu province came together and wrote a letter to Susan Rice, asking her to be the spokesperson on behalf on the women of North Kivu. While they have not received a response, the effort is part of their goal to engage the international community more fully in their struggle.
Malimukono and her team are also currently reviewing the most recent peace accord, signed in Addis Ababa in late February, for its incorporation of the role of women. The fact that it was signed by eleven African nations and guaranteed a special envoy – recently announced to be former Irish President Mary Robinson – is significant, both women said, despite that Kakozi noted it tackles issues that were promised to be resolved in a similar 2008 agreement. If it addresses the decentralization of power to the grassroots level, she also wonders how that might be accomplished without the explicit incorporation of women, whose leadership is most evident at the community level. Of significance, Malimukono says that on the same night the peace deal was signed, the there were killings in Rushuru and Kitshanga. Both women await the effectiveness of the accord, which they say will be evident soon enough on the ground.
When asked for her strongest statement to the global community as they ask for support, Malimukono said, "My message remains the same. The militarization – [ending it] is the only way out. We are not free."
Originally published in MediaGlobal.
Author Larkin CallaghanPosted on December 22, 2017 December 12, 2017 Categories Feminism, Sexism, and Gender Issues, International, MediaGlobal, Rape and Sexual Assault, Reproductive and Sexual Health, Violence, Violence Against Women, Women's HealthTags domestic violence, global health, international development, rapeLeave a comment on In Country of Sustained Conflict, Two Women Work Toward Peace
Uganda-Ireland Partner Against Domestic Violence
One of the recurring themes at the 57th CSW has been the success of integrating multiple sectors in fighting violence against women in developing countries, and Uganda is no exception.
The March 7 event at United Nations headquarters, "Mobilizing Communities to Prevent and Respond to Violence against Women – Lessons Learned from Uganda," introduced attendees to two partnerships between the Republic of Ireland and Uganda. The Center for Domestic Violence Prevention and Irish Aid, and the Catholic Church in Uganda and Trócaire, respectively, work together to combat domestic violence in the east African nation.
During the talk, Tina Musuya, the director of CEDOVIP, outlined her organization's phased-in community mobilization approach against domestic violence: CEDOVIP trains community activists speak with men in local gathering places, like bars, about the traditional roles of men and women and the implications of men's use of power over women, slowly changing the social norms that have made violence against women acceptable. This is essential in settings that lack infrastructure and services, explained Musuya.
CEDOVIP benefits specifically from a partnership known as GoU-Irish Aid, the Government of Uganda ad the Irish government's program for overseas development.
Coordinating the discussion was Ireland's Minister of State for Disability, Equality and Mental Health, Kathleen Lynch.
Lynch told MediaGlobal, "The difficulties we have in terms of culture and tradition are the biggest difficulties."
In Uganda, where 40 percent of the population identifies as Catholic, engaging the religious community is essential, said Lynch. "It is incredible that when you manage to convince the champions for all sorts of other things within communities, how quickly things then start to move. And how quickly people start to realize and recognize the benefits there are in a change in their attitudes."
Tackling this is Trócaire, the Catholic Church in Ireland's overseas development agency. Members of the organization work with high-level church leaders, including bishops, throughout Uganda, in advocating against domestic violence.
In a survey by the agency, 72 percent of Ugandans who responded had seen anti-domestic violence education materials in their church and 88 percent had heard their church leader speak out against it. Because of these efforts, 45 percent of Ugandans surveyed had spoken with their family about harmful effects of domestic violence, 53 percent decided to not engage in violence in their homes, and 37 asked a man they knew was engaging in domestic violence to stop.
Sean Farrell, Trócaire's country representative in Uganda, told MediaGlobal about the work still to be done. "The biggest challenge we face in the program is, having raised the levels of awareness on the negative effects of domestic violence, we now need to respond to the increasing demands for response at the local level."
"We have already started planning different interventions with partners looking at response and the testing of potential solutions are already underway, and will inform the program going forward," he said.
Originally published at MediaGlobal.
Author Larkin CallaghanPosted on December 21, 2017 December 12, 2017 Categories Feminism, Sexism, and Gender Issues, International, MediaGlobal, Mental Health, Violence Against Women, Women's HealthTags domestic violence, feminism, global health, international developmentLeave a comment on Uganda-Ireland Partner Against Domestic Violence
Kiribati Tackles Domestic Violence Across More than Twenty Islands
For a country comprised of 33 islands in the central tropical Pacific – 21 of them inhabited – Kiribati's population is one of the smallest at just over 100,000 people.
Yet this small developing nation has struggled as much as larger countries with the problem of violence against women.
At a UNFPA hosted side event at the 57th CSW, "The Role of Data in Addressing Violence Against Women and Girls," Anne Kautu, Kiribati's Women's Officer in the Ministry of Internal and Social Affairs, spoke of the challenges of data collection and utilization in her country when used to combat violence.
"The problems with the isolation of the islands, of getting to those islands to get the data and also getting the information back to disseminate it – because they need that, they require information [to come] back – that is the main problem at the moment that we are having," Kautu told MediaGlobal.
Kautu explained that Kiribati was one of the first countries in the Pacific to look at violence against women in a coordinated fashion. Until a 2008 survey conducted with the help of UNFPA, and co-funded by Australian Agency for International Development and the Secretariat of the Pacific Community, no data existed on the prevalence of domestic violence on the island. The study showed that 68 percent of girls and women aged 14-49 years experienced physical or sexual violence at the hands of a partner. The data allowed officials to tailor their responses against abuse.
The Kiribati Family Health and Support Study, a title given to protect the content of the questions, had trained individuals to privately interview the woman or girl randomly selected from the study's 2,000 households – an essential element of collecting data about domestic violence. Results omitted names of islands or villages to protect the women who shared details about their communities.
As a result of the study, the Kiribati government is currently drafting anti-domestic violence legislation, Kautu said. Government task forces were set up to coordinate and monitor gender-based violence initiatives and police training incorporated curriculum about addressing domestic violence. Standard operating procedures, implemented on even the smaller islands, were established so all sectors – health, education, law enforcement – had increased awareness across the board, Kautu also explained.
Currently, the developing island nation is currently working on a United Nations coordinated initiative addressing capacity building and support for victims, Kautu told the event's attendees.
"What we've done at the moment is tried to train – we have focal points in the outer islands, so we try to get them in and do training with them," said Kautu to MediaGlobal. "Also, if we need an extra bit of data, we try to get them to be able to do that."
Speaking to a particular development struggle, she added, "At the moment our country is trying to get Internet installed to all the outer islands, so slowly we have a few islands we can contact. But that's always a problem, lack of communication and systems. The main way now is getting information through the radio, and using the focal points and existing structures rather than us going out there, because it is very costly."
Author Larkin CallaghanPosted on December 20, 2017 December 21, 2017 Categories Feminism, Sexism, and Gender Issues, International, MediaGlobal, Violence Against Women, Women's HealthTags domestic violence, global health, international development, women's healthLeave a comment on Kiribati Tackles Domestic Violence Across More than Twenty Islands
Retraumatization: The Increased Risk of HIV Transmission among Abuse and Assault Victims
While the transmission of HIV and the causes of HIV-related death are actually more complicated—and even more nuanced—than public discussion would let on, a few presumptions about it remain fairly accurate.
For women who are marginalized in their communities, who are victims of abuse or assault, and who are economically or socially dependent on a spouse, the risk of them contracting HIV or dying from multiple complications from AIDS is simply greater than that of women fortunate enough to not be subjected to these circumstances. Take these scenarios:
The power dynamic in an abusive relationship may prohibit women from being able to protect herself from a partner who refuses to wear a condom
Women in poverty and those who need to rely on a partner for financial support may have greater risk of comorbid infections than women of economic independence. They are less likely to have the health insurance and relationship with a healthcare provider that would support HIV testing and provide the essential—and expensive—HIV medications to ensure a healthy life and lower the risk of co-morbid infections
People without social support, living in fear of what an HIV-positive diagnosis means, or those who have reason to fear stigma around personal behavior when seeking treatment are less likely to know where to access treatment or seek it out because of that fear, stigma and lack of support
Common sense would seem to support these statements. But until recently, the pathways of infection were not always clear, and while the conclusions above seemed certainly reasonable, specific data to support them had been difficult to collect. Two recent studies led by a UCSF-researcher have changed that. One synthesized what is known about PTSD and exposure to trauma among HIV-positive women, and the other explored the root of this relationship.
The results were remarkable. HIV-positive women had between two and six times the rates of childhood and adult physical and sexual abuse, and PTSD. The snapshot of risk behaviors among HIV-positive women was sobering:
Sample size Number (%) of participants with each characteristic
Any sexual activity in the past 6 months 113 61 (54.0%)
With a main partnerMedian number of main partners (if any) 61 43 (70.5%)1 (range 1–2)
With casual partnersMedian number of casual partners (if any)a 61 23 (37.7%)1 (range 1–25)
Sex with any HIV negative or unknown serostatus partners (if sexually active) in the last 6 months 61 51 (83.6%)
Disclosure of HIV status less than all of the time with these partners 51 29 (56.9%)
Using condoms less than all of the time with these partners 51 31 (60.8%)
Detectable viral load 51 30 (58.8%)
Disclosure of HIV status less than all of the time, and using condoms less than all of the time, and a detectable viral load 51 16 (31.4%)
Substance use (any, recent)
Cigarettes 110 71 (64.5%)
Alcohol 111 50 (45.0%)
Marijuana 111 39 (35.1%)
Crack/cocaine, heroin, and/or methamphetamines 111 45 (40.5%)
IDUb 112 11 (9.8%)
IDU who share needles 11 5 (45.5%)
IDU who have a detectable viral load 11 6 (54.5%)
aOne participant had a very high number of sexual partners (N = 250) and was excluded from the analysis; b IDU injection drug use; ©2012 Machtinger, et al. (retrieved December 16, 2012.)
There were striking findings in terms of both HIV treatment failure and the impact of the above risk behavior in these women, bringing us the first real data hoping to explain this relationship. Those who suffered from recent trauma had more than four times the odds of anti-retroviral (ART) failure while on treatment than HIV-positive non-victims—and this was seemingly not due to self-reported poor adherence to the medication. One potential explanation offered by the study authors is that abuse and trauma interfere with an individual's ability to stay on a consistent medication schedule, which is essential for control of the virus. Other studies have confirmed that abuse manifest as control, in which a male partner prevents his HIV-positive female partner from accessing services at a clinic out of fear that the stigma of HIV would be attached to him.
HIV-positive victims of recent trauma also all reported experiencing what the study calls "coerced sex," and have over three times the odds of un-traumatized women of having sex with HIV-negative or status-unknown individuals. They had greater than four times the odds of inconsistent condom use, potentially exposing those casual partners to the virus. While high-risk sex behavior is always a factor in HIV-transmission, HIV-positive individuals who adhere consistently to HIV treatments are significantly less likely to infect HIV-negative partners during sex. So the lack of treatment adherence among traumatized HIV-positive women combined with the risky sex behavior is a great concern.
Interestingly, these figures were only significant among women who experienced recent trauma, indicating that the ongoing—not merely one occurrence—circumstances of abuse are the key to the relationship between HIV-infection and HIV-related illness and death. This can actually be seen as a snapshot of hope—if we are able to offer abuse, assault, and PTSD victims the appropriate support to heal from the experiences, we may be able to weaken the HIV/trauma relationship.
These studies draw a clear line between victims of assault and trauma and both the spread of HIV within their communities and the increased risk of HIV-related illness and death. But interestingly, the risk goes much deeper than these socioeconomic circumstances. The conversation around HIV transmission is generally split into one of two categories: social and behavioral—risky activity, injection drug use, the prejudicial judgment of sex workers; and medical and clinical—how the virus infiltrates the immune system, takes over cells, and how it is and isn't suppressed with antiretroviral medications. What isn't usually discussed is the possible combination of these two categories and how together they create a perfect storm for potential infection.
Recent studies have shown that those individuals suffering from PTSD had significantly higher rates of cytomegalovirus (CMV) in their body. A virus that is found in between 50%-80% of adults in the United States, CMV remains largely undetected—latent, suppressed, unproblematic—in healthy individuals. It's also seen as a marker of immune health and function, and of the body's ability to control potential infections. Given that 30% of American women with HIV/AIDS have PTSD (five times the national average), the potential relationship between their HIV-status and even further compromised immune function could lead to a myriad of comorbid infections and premature death. Other research has also shown that additional biological mechanisms may prevent ART-treatment from being as effective as possible, including high cortisol (stress hormone) levels. Not only do these victims have to fight against abuse and assault, they have been left without the essential social support to decrease risky behaviors that may expose others to the virus, and their own bodies are in revolt.
Collecting this kind of information is difficult. It requires consistent and positive communication between women and providers, unobstructed access to medical care and uninterrupted ART treatment, and of course, in this example, most importantly—removal from an abusive environment.
The combination of immunosuppression due to PTSD, the detectable rates of HIV in traumatized women whose viral loads are not suppressed by consistent anti-retroviral treatments, and the concurrent risk behaviors of abused HIV-positive women, all contribute to higher rates of HIV-infection in communities, as well as the potential for co-morbid infections and HIV-related death. Until these women are able to find the essential social and community support, free from abuse and trauma, and until their access to care and preventative measures are fully realized, the relationship between trauma and HIV will only deepen.
Author Larkin CallaghanPosted on December 17, 2012 December 12, 2017 Categories Epidemiology and Population Health, Feminism, Sexism, and Gender Issues, Health Behavior and Health Education, Mental Health, Public Health, Rape and Sexual Assault, Reproductive and Sexual Health, Women's HealthTags abuse, domestic violence, health behaviors, HIV/AIDS, IPV, prevention, PTSD, publiv health, risk behavior, traumaLeave a comment on Retraumatization: The Increased Risk of HIV Transmission among Abuse and Assault Victims
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I'm a born and bred San Franciscan, with previous residences, postings, and assignments in NYC, LA, and Eastern and Southern Africa. Runner, global health and international development expert, health communication and strategic partnerships professional, implementation science investigator, reproductive health advocate. Previously seen working at the UN, professor-ing at Stanford University, implementing in sub-Saharan Africa, SE Asia, and Latin America with the CDC, PEPFAR, and ICAP at Columbia, and managing research at UCSF.
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Net Privacy Legislation Gets Some Industry Support
Carrie Kirby, Chronicle Staff Writer
Privacy watchdogs dismissed as inadequate an outline for Internet privacy legislation suggested yesterday by a high-tech trade group.
However, the fact that AeA, formerly called the American Electronics Association, has for the first time acknowledged regulation as inevitable is a step in the right direction, said Andrew Shen, a policy analyst with the Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC) in Washington, D.C.
"For a long time, a lot of the privacy debate has centered on whether there should be a law or not," Shen said. "This AeA release is a strong signal that the debate is now centered on the substance of potential legislation."
TRUSTe, the most well-known industry privacy program, also changed its stance yesterday to support laws regulating Internet privacy. TRUSTe awards a seal of approval to sites that post a privacy policy based on certain standards.
"It is unlikely that either self-regulation or legislation alone can provide the protections necessary," said John Berard, a TRUSTe board member.
Both groups had long maintained that the Internet industry should enforce its own standards for the use of the personal information that many Web sites collect about visitors. But during the past year, a series of incidents has raised eyebrows with the public and the Federal Trade Commission.
E-tailer Toysmart violated its own privacy policy when it put its customer list up for sale after it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The FTC investigated online advertising firm DoubleClick when EPIC complained that the company was linking information gathered on the Internet with a database of names and addresses it had purchased.
In May, the FTC recommended that Congress make laws establishing a basic Internet privacy standard.
AeA's suggested legislation is weaker than the FTC's recommendations. The FTC advised requiring Web sites to give Internet users a choice in what information is collected about them and giving users access to that information. But the AeA proposal did not mention user access.
AeA, based in Washington, D.C., did say that customers should be allowed to ask Web sites not to use or share information collected about them. Both the FTC and AeA advocate requiring Web sites to post privacy policies explaining to customers what their personal data will be used for and whom it will be shared with.
AeA stressed that any law regulating Internet privacy should be at the federal, not state, level.
"Otherwise, online business could face 50 conflicting sets of privacy rules, " said William T. Archey, the group's president and chief executive.
Jason Catlett, a privacy expert who owns Junkbusters, an online privacy service, accused the group of using its federal law suggestion to derail any potential state legislation, which he felt would be more consumer friendly.
"They're trying to get the Congress to stop the states from giving their citizens real privacy rights," Catlett said. "The measures they propose are extremely weak."
High-tech leaders such as Michael Dell of Dell Computer, Hewlett-Packard's Carly Fiorina and Intel's Andy Grove have endorsed privacy legislation. The AeA is the first industry group to do so.
Carrie Kirby
Carrie Kirby is a freelance writer and blogger who writes about business, technology and - her favorite topic - saving money. Carrie was a staff reporter in The San Francisco Chronicle's Business section during the early years of the century, then relocated to Chicago, where she started a blog about frugal living and became a staff columnist at the Chicago Tribune. Now she's back in the Bay Area, writing for The Chronicle and other publications, and blogging about bargains, car-free living and coupons at Frugalistic Mom.


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Spiritually speaking: Japan's earthquake as a sign of Apocalypse Soon
Anyone can be 'published'
A Yahoo writer wrote that God means the earthquake-tsunami in Japan to be a sign about Jesus returning to earth. The person used three disaster dates, allegedly with 11 in them (World Trade Center, Haiti and Japan), and a Bible verse numbered 11 that includes the word "earthquakes." The writer got one of the dates wrong (the Haitian earthquake was on a 12th, which eliminates one of the 11s) and chose only a single '11-verse' out of 260 possible '11-verses' throughout the New Testament.
As disasters go, the writer failed to include the recent flooding in Australia (31 December), and the Christchurch earthquake in New Zealand (22 February).
Stacking the Bible
Biblically, John is left out of the earthquake prediction business, but in the book of Luke, the earthquake verse is 11. In the book of Matthew, it's number 7. In Mark, the earth quakes verse 8. If sending coded messages by natural disaster is the way the Almighty communicates with people, does this mean that when the Holy Spirit was guiding the hands of those who divvied up the Greek writings into chapters and verses for Bibles that the Holy Spirit was hedging the Holy Spirit's bets for staging disasters? [insert coy tone] "I'm coming!"
With earthquake verses having different numbers, did the Holy Spirit choose the 7th, 8th or 11th of … of what? Wouldn't the likely dating be in Jewish months? Since time-counting by lunar cycles does not synchronize with solar cycles - lunar calendars slip 'ahead' of the solar calendar we're accustomed to use - was the Holy Spirit thinking ahead? Is this why the Holy Spirit went with synchronizing New Testament verses with dates using Western months long before people who would be Western needed months? The Holy Spirit was also savvy about figuring in the calendrical changes convenient for catastrophes, such as the time the calendar "lost" eleven days.
Can't you just see the H.S. scratching His Head as he 'did the math' for that one so that after 2001, all natural catastrophes would fall on the 11th of each month?
I would think that in a court of law that these 11-connections wouldn't qualify even as circumstantial evidence.
Probability and science
That devastating events happen on similarly-numbered days is coincidence. As a non-mathematician, non-statistician, non-probability figurer-outer (no clue as to what that person's job title is), I'm guessing the odds of events happening on similarly-numbered days is roughly 1-in-30. Year after year, decade after decade, century after century we code events as happening on roughly one of more or less 30 days per month.
Over millennia, with 'stuff' happening all the time, it is likely that there will be significant events that fall on the 'same day,' but since 2001, if it has an 11 in it (instead of 10 for the hurricane of 1780, or 8 for the Chicago fire, or 31 for the Johnstown flood or the Galveston hurricane, or 18 for the San Francisco earthquake, or 25 for the Triangle Shirtwaist fire, or 1 for a Mississippi River flood and an Aleutian tsunami, or 3 for Hurricane Diane, or 9 for the Rapid Creek flood in South Dakota, or 17 for another San Francisco earthquake that people watching the World Series saw on television) we all see the numerical equivalent of Tarot's Death card.
Back to the Bible
Now even if you take these connections seriously, what is it that you're actually serious about?
In Luke, since that was the Yahoo Writer's choice of verse, it appears to be the destruction of the temple in Jerusalem. We would file that under "old news."
In Mark, it's not so clear. Could be the temple, could be Jesus' return.
Matthew is equally unclear.
What is clear, though, is who, in this cast of characters, is going to 'know.'
Go to Mark, chapter 13. Skip down from the earthquake verse, number eight, to verse 32. We'll leave aside verses 30 and 31 about that generation not passing before all the earthquakes, wars and nations rising against each other, that was about 100 generations ago, and we're here, not them. Mark 13:32 states in English (depending on your translation), "But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father."
Only the Father, not Jesus the Son, not Luke the disciple, and definitely not the Yahoo Writer. Since the Father apparently keeps his lip zipped, no HeaveniLeaks that I've noticed, can we stop with the scare stuff?
I can't tell what the Yahoo writer means by writing what s/he did. Warning? Threat? What? What's the point? The Earth has been seismically active throughout its life. It's going to stay that way because of plate tectonics and magma. Scientists have documented at least 27 earthquakes of the magnitude of the Japan catastrophe since the 'time of Jesus' (as that's when the destruction was first promised).
As people try to find some small comfort in which to wrap themselves against the effects of the power of nature, and our helplessness against much of it, this person seems to revel in the idea of divine global catastrophe. Isn't it enough for the Yahoo Writer that tens of thousands of people are dead, drowned in terror as the deep crashed over them, suffocating their screams as the fouled nightmare water rolled them like ants being washed away by a stream from a gardener's hose?
Not only do I not understand that way of looking at things, I don't want to understand it.
Posted on 15 March 2011 in Current Affairs, Religion, Science | Permalink
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Its all gone Pete Pong!
STOP PRESS: Nail biting finish to the Pongathon City Challenge!
The final of London's first inter company social ping pong tournament went down to the absolute wire with Topspin Traders overcoming Karmarama Silver by the narrowest of margins, 11-8 in the deciding set.
The Pongathon City Challenge Finals are tomorrow!
The Pongathon City Challenge Finals are tomorrow! Its fast, fun and fabulously hip shaking as the teams smash, spin and lunge for their company's bragging rights!
The Pongathon City Challenge Groups was fiercely contested as teams battled it out to reach the Finals on May 15th! Emerging as victorious all conquering heroes were 'Lets Get It Pong', 'Karmarama Silver', 'Topspin Traders' and 'London Ping Pongers'.


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NASA scientists stunned by superstar Eta Carinae's exploding twins
January 7, 2016 By Sam Catherman
NASA scientists believe they have found as many as five stars that bear a stunning resemblance to Eta Carinae, the brightest known superstar in the Milky Way.
Astronomers working with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA have made a stunning discovery. According to a Tech Times report, researchers studying Eta Carinae, the biggest and brightest solar system in the Milky Way, have discovered up to five potential twin stars by examining their infrared and optical fingerprint in the sky.
Over the course of 2012 to 2014, a NASA team scanned seven different galaxies but were unable to find any stars that resembled Eta Carinae. Last year, the team followed up on their surveys and discovered two possible Eta twins in the M83 galaxy, situated roughly 15 million light-years from the Earth. Subsequent followups revealed three additional potential Eta twins, in the galaxies M101, M51, and NGC6946, ranging from 18 to 26 million light-years from the Earth.
Much like Eta Carinae, the five stars located by NASA researchers could conceal a massive star beneath a huge cloud of gas and dust. The findings were published in the December 2015 edition of The Astrophysical Journal Letters. Further studies will need to be carried out in order to determine whether each of the five stars are truly similar to the supermassive Eta Carinae, but the discovery once again confirms that the forces driving stellar and galactic formation throughout the universe are relatively similar.
Eta Carinae became notorious in the mid-1800s after it withstood a massive stellar explosion. This explosion launched a shroud of debris and gas with roughly 10 times the sun's mass into space.
The dust from the explosion is still settling around Eta Carinae, which gives it its unique shape. The star is roughly 7,500 light-years from the Carina constellation, but is so bright that it outshines our own sun by a factor of almost 5 million. Eta Carinae is actually a binary system, made of two massive stars. The larger one is roughly 90 times the sun's mass, and the smaller is only 30 times the sun's mass. The system's proximity to Earth's position in the Milky Way makes it the perfect subject for studying massive stars and the forces that drive their evolution.
A press release from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory describing the massive stars can be found here.


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Discussion in 'Miscellaneous [BG]' started by Freaky Fender, Jan 18, 2002.
i have a theory why every kid in a music store slaps the heck out of a bass. last night i was playing my bass with out an amp, and when i slapped, it was 2-3x louder then when played fingerstyle... and with the kids, its not about tone, it's about VOLUME. if you don't believe me, play Chameleon fingerstyle, then slap it (reminding you, do this at home... NOT in public. you don't wanna screw up a good song in public do you?) if you need to, record. even though this is just a theory, try it. you may even start to slap when you can't play through an amp at certian times!
exactly, i used to do that when i first started playing bass guitar, sounded strange when i slapped a fretless bass though.