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[haw-info] Iran War Weekly - October 21, 2012
Historians Against the War is posting Frank Brodhead's "Iran War Weekly,' as a helpful resource for our members and friends. Frank earned a PhD in history at Princeton University and has co-authored several books on US foreign policy. He is a scholar and political activist who has worked with peace and social justice movements for many years. In 2010-2011 he produced the "Afghanistan War Weekly," which was widely used by antiwar groups across the country.
Iran War Weekly
Hello All – For the last several weeks – since the end of the UN's opening session – media reports about US and Iranian negotiations, or about changes in the parties' negotiating positions, have been officially denied as fast as they have been leaked. It is evident that the Obama administration is determined to keep concrete issues and proposals regarding Iran's nuclear program out of the public realm until the election is over, pursuing a sort of "strategic ambiguity." Nevertheless, as is illustrated in the leaks and denials linked below, it appears that – pending an Obama election win – negotiations will resume soon about Iran's nuclear program.
The Obama administration's Iran "strategy" now centers on its vast program of economic warfare ("sanctions"), backed up with threats of military force. As indicated in some of the articles linked below, the "spin" on whether or not the sanctions are "working" depends on what you think the purpose of sanctions is. The official position of the Obama administration and the UN Security Council is that the purpose of sanctions is to force Iran to comply with orders to cease enriching uranium and to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency's demand for information, off-site inspections, etc. The growing economic chaos within Iran, therefore, is presented as a "win" for the Obama administration, and also as an argument (against Israel and Congress) that military action against Iran is at present unnecessary. The test of the sanctions strategy, of course, depends in this framework on whether or not Iran concedes to US demands about its nuclear program, something that is not now on the horizon. For the immediate future, therefore, the US position is likely to be that sanctions are "working" (causing hardship), and should be given more time to persuade Iran's leadership to knuckle under. How long this "immediate future" can last, of course, is the question.
Many analyst, however, believe that the purpose of US-led economic warfare is to accomplish "regime change," bringing down the Iranian ruling elite by promoting broad-based discontent through economic impoverishment of its poor and middle class. While (as noted in the last IWW) there is little in the historical record to suggest that this is possible, the example of the devastation of Iraq by sanctions in the 1990s illustrates the power of economic warfare; and it may be that the Obama administration would be willing to continue sanctions over a long period, while refusing to modify its currently non-starting negotiating positions regarding Iran's nuclear program. (For a chilling illustration of the possibilities of such economic warfare, I highly recommend Joy Gordon's book about Iraq, Invisible War, now in paperback.)
Unlike the negotiations and conflicts with Iran, the war in Syria is not beholden to the US election cycle, and each week this war engulfs more and more of its immediate neighborhood. As indicated in some of the articles linked below, the conflict between Syria and Turkey involves far more than a few dozen mortar shells crossing international borders. Today's news from Lebanon is very ominous. And last week Jordan saw one of the largest anti-government protests in its history, this news coming on the heels of reports that the United States has now established a small military force inside Jordan, near the Syrian border.
Though this newsletter focuses on Iran, the war in and around Syria is obviously important for the resolution of the US-Iran standoff. For current news about Syria I highly recommend War in Context (www.warincontext.org), Syria Comment (www.joshualandis.com) and Aljazeera's "Inside Syria" (http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidesyria/).
Once again, I appreciate the help that many of you have given in distributing the Iran War Weekly and/or linking it on websites. Previous "issues" of the IWW can be read at http://warisacrime.org/blog/46383. If you would like to receive the IWW mailings, please send me an email at fbrodhead@aol.com.
Frank Brodhead
Concerned Families of Westchester (NY)
NEGOTIATIONS ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Obama Aides Launch Preemptive Attack on New Iran Plan
By Gareth Porter, Inter Press Service [October 16, 2012]
---- Although the place and time of the next round of talks on Iran's nuclear program have not yet been announced, the maneuvering by Iran and the United States to influence the outcome has already begun. Iran sought support for a revised proposal to the talks during the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) last month, according to a New York Times report Oct. 4. Then, only a few days later, the Barack Obama administration launched a preemptive attack on the proposal through New York Times reporter David Sanger. The officials suggested the Iranian proposal would give Iran an easier route to a "breakout" to weapons-grade uranium enrichment. But that claim flies in the face of some obvious realities. http://original.antiwar.com/porter/2012/10/16/obama-aides-launch-preemptive-attack-on-new-iran-plan/
White House denies report that US and Iran agreed to direct talks
By Laura Rozen, Al-Monitor [October 21, 2012]
---- The White House on Saturday denied a report in the New York Times that the United States and Iran had agreed to hold one–on-one talks on Iran's nuclear program after the US presidential elections next month. But the White House reiterated that the Obama administration has "said from the outset that we would be prepared to meet bilaterally." And a Washington Iran analyst told Al-Monitor that it is his understanding that a senior US arms control official has held authorized back channel talks with an Iranian official posted to Turkey. http://backchannel.al-monitor.com/index.php/2012/10/2813/white-house-denies-report-that-us-and-iran-agreed-to-direct-talks/#ixzz29xDCd1li
Also useful – From Reuters, "Iran denies report of plans for nuclear talks with U.S.," [October 21, 2012] http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/21/iran-nuclear-usa-idUSL5E8LL18W20121021. For the report, Helene Cooper and Mark Landler, "U.S. Officials Say Iran Has Agreed to Nuclear Talks," New York Times [October 20, 2012] http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/21/world/iran-said-ready-to-talk-to-us-about-nuclear-program.html?hp&pagewanted=print
IAEA: We're seeing activity at Iran nuclear facility
From Reuters [October 17, 2012]
---- UN nuclear watchdog chief Yukiya Amano said on Wednesday the UN agency continued to see activity at Iran's Parchin military site, an apparent reference to suspected efforts by Iran to clean the site of any illicit operations. His comments came amid allegations by Western diplomats that Iran is further increasing its uranium enrichment capacity at its Fordow plant buried deep underground. http://www.jpost.com/LandedPages/PrintArticle.aspx?id=288206
On the Politics of how well Sanctions are Working
By Farideh Farhi, LobeLog [October 19, 2012]
---- The escalating sanctions regime that has been imposed on Iran by the United States and European Union has placed all parties involved in a rather strange position. On the US side, the palpable glee over the dropping value of the Iranian currency and the success sanctions have had in causing misery has been hard to hide. It is also politically astute for domestic electoral purposes to take credit for the success of sanctions. Yet it is not particularly seemly or civilized to take too much credit for causing misery in front of a global audience. That's why Obama Administration officials twist and turn to explain that while sanctions are the mark of the administration's great success, it is the Iranian government that is responsible for the deteriorating state of Iran's economy. The conversation regarding the impact of sanctions is as surreal and even more politicized inside Iran. http://www.lobelog.com/on-the-politics-of-how-well-sanctions-are-working/
Also useful – Kevin G. Hall, "Have Iran sanctions worked? That depends on what you think the goal is," McClatchy Newspapers [October 19, 2012] http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/10/19/172026/have-iran-sanctions-worked-that.html; and Gwynne Dyer, "No panic in Iran despite currency collapse, international sanctions," Cape Breton Post [October 18, 2012] http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/index.php?q=node/12991
What's Really Behind Iran Sanctions
By Hillary Mann Leverett, Race for Iran [October 18, 2012]
---- Notwithstanding Western rhetoric about "targeted" measures that punish the Iranian government but somehow spare ordinary Iranians, the real purpose of sanctions is "to increase hardship for ordinary Iranians"—just as "sanctions imposed on other governments and other systems, like the sanctions that were imposed for over a decade on Iraq," were intended to make ordinary Iraqis suffer. In contrast to the all-too-frequent line put forward in Washington, Hillary makes clear that the sanctions against Iran "are in no way targeted. When you sanction the Central Bank of Iran, when you say that SWIFT can't handle banking transactions into and out of Iran, you are covering transactions that people need in order to buy food and medicine…There's nothing targeted about it." http://www.raceforiran.com/hillary-mann-leverett-on-whats-really-behind-iran-sanctions
(Video) Iran: The impact and limits of sanctions
From Aljazeera [October 17, 2012] – 25 minutes
[FB – The discussants on this "Inside Story" segment include Hillary Mann Leverett.]
http://warincontext.org/2012/10/17/video-iran-the-impact-and-limits-of-sanctions/
With New Sanctions, European Union Tightens Screws on Iran Over Nuclear Work
By James Kanter and Thomas Erdbrink, New York Times [October 16, 2012]
---- The European Union toughened sanctions against Iran over its disputed nuclear program on Monday, banning trade in industries like finance, metals and natural gas, and making other business transactions far more cumbersome. The European Union "agreed to prohibit all transactions between European and Iranian banks unless authorized in advance under strict conditions with exemptions for humanitarian needs," according to an official statement. The statement said that the European Union also had "decided to strengthen the restrictive measures against the Central Bank of Iran. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/16/world/middleeast/european-union-intensifies-sanctions-on-iran.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print
Also useful – From Reuters, "E.U. Agrees to Impose New Iran Sanctions," [October 15, 2012] http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/10/15/world/europe/15reuters-eu-iran-sanctions-westerwelle.html?hp; and from Reuters, "Russia slams EU for new round of Iran sanctions," [October 17, 2012] http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/russia-slams-eu-for-new-round-of-iran-sanctions-1.470617
US-Led Iran Sanctions Putting Millions of Lives at Risk, Iranian Charity Says
By John Glaser, Antiwar.com [October 17, 2012]
---- US-led economic sanctions are putting millions of Iranian lives are at risk by blocking the importing of medicines and hospital equipment, according to country's top medical charity. Fatemeh Hashemi, head of the Charity Foundation for Special Diseases, a non-government organisation supporting six million patients in Iran, is warning publicly about deep shortages of medicines for diseases like hemophilia, multiple sclerosis and cancer. Although the sanctions don't target medicine and humanitarian needs, they are "increasingly hitting vulnerable medical patients as deliveries of medicine and raw materials for Iranian pharmaceutical companies are either stopped or delayed," the Washington Post reported last month. http://news.antiwar.com/2012/10/17/us-led-iran-sanctions-putting-millions-of-lives-at-risk-iranian-charity-says/print/
Also useful – Yeganeh Torbati, "Iran says it will cut imports of non-essential goods," Reuters [October 2012] http://news.yahoo.com/iran-says-cut-imports-non-essential-goods-160300003--finance.html; Rick Gladstone, "Iran Sanctions May Cut Supply of Currency," New York Times [October 16, 2012] http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/17/world/middleeast/irans-supply-of-currency-may-be-at-risk-in-sanctions.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print; and from Reuters, "US exports to Iran soar despite sanctions," [October 15, 2012] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2012/10/2012101575726953693.html
MILITARY MANEUVERING
The Myth of "Surgical Strikes" on Iran
By David Isenberg, Time [October 18, 2012]
---- For all the years that the world has focused on the confrontation between Western nations and Iran, oceans of ink have been spilled over many aspects of its nuclear program — the quantity and quality of its enriched uranium, various UN Security Council resolutions, the number of Iranian centrifuges, IAEA safeguards, compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty, diplomatic negotiations, red lines, U.S. and Israeli attack scenarios, possible Iranian responses, the impact of a nuclear Iran, and so on. Yet, almost nothing has been written about one critical factor: the impact on Iranian civilians, if the U.S. and/or the Israelis were to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. That vacuum has now been filled, thanks to a recent lengthy report — The Ayatollah's Nuclear Gamble: The Human Cost of Military Strikes Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities. http://nation.time.com/2012/10/18/the-myth-of-surgical-strikes-on-iran/#ixzz29mIg60VZ
Massive US-Led Anti-Mining Drill in Persian Gulf a Disaster
By Jason Ditz, Antiwar.com [October 17, 2012]
---- More than 30 nations engaged in what is being called the single largest naval drill in human history aimed to find 29 simulated sea mines planted in the water. The results were not very good, according to Captain Robert O'Donnell. "I don't think a great many were found," O'Donnell said of the fake mines, saying that less than half of them were ever actually located. http://news.antiwar.com/2012/10/17/massive-anti-mining-drill-in-persian-gulf-a-disaster/
Iran denies role in cyberattacks on oil and gas companies in Gulf, welcomes probe
From the Associated Press [October 14, 2012]
---- Iranian officials denied any role in recent cyberattacks against oil and gas companies in the Persian Gulf and said they welcomed a probe of the case, a semiofficial news agency reported Sunday. Mahdi Akhavan Bahabadi, secretary of the National Center of Cyberspace, denounced as "politically motivated" American allegations of an Iranian link to the Shamoon virus that hit Saudi Arabian state oil company Aramco and Qatari natural gas producer RasGas, according to remarks carried by ISNA. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-denies-role-in-cyberattacks-and-gas-companies-in-gulf-welcomes-probe/2012/10/14/c29d45d0-15f4-11e2-a346-f24efc680b8d_story.html
UNITED STATES POLICIES AND PERSPECTIVES
Iranian-Americans' California dreaming
By D. Parvaz, Al-Jazeera [October 18, 2012]
---- Being on the sharp end of US foreign policy is nothing new for Iranians. More than 30 years of sanctions and the recurring spectre of war have cast a heavy shadow over relations between the two countries. Nearly 1.5 million Iranians have made the United States home, seeking their slice of the American Dream. Iran, its controversial nuclear programme, its suspected hand in the Syrian conflict , and its role in regional security are hot topics this US election, figuring prominently in the campaigns of President Barack Obama and the GOP candidate, Mitt Romney. In California, a "blue state", Obama's handling of Iran is not seen in a favourable light.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/10/201210189415822388.html
INSIDE IRAN
Stop Supporting Separatist Groups in Iran
By Muhammad Sahimi, Antiwar.com [October 15, 2012]
---- Trying to turn Iran into a client state — one that will carry water for the interests of the U.S. and Israel over its own national interests — through military means is impossible. Iran was a client state during the reign of Mohammad Reza Shah, but the 1979 Revolution toppled his regime. While crippling sanctions have mostly hurt ordinary — especially sick — Iranians, the War Party and Israel have been trying to find other ways of achieving their goal as well, and one approach that had been discussed for years and is now being seriously pursued is inciting ethnic unrest and creating puppet separatist groups or "liberation movements" in Iran's provinces where ethnic groups other than Persians make up a significant portion of the population. They include Iran's two Azerbaijan provinces, Kurdistan, and the oil-rich province of Khuzestan, where a small but significant part of the population is Iranian-Arab. http://original.antiwar.com/muhammad-sahimi/2012/10/14/stop-supporting-separatist-groups-in-iran/
A Separation at Iranian Universities
By Nazanin Shahrokni , Parastou Dokouhaki, Middle East Reports [October 18, 2012]
---- With the fall semester well underway in Iran, it is clear that the spin from both the Islamic Republic and the West was somewhat misleading. The new restrictions affect both men and women, and are part of a long-standing scheme of gender segregation that is not an invention of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's hardline conservative government. … In the 1980s, the state sought physically to separate men and women on campus, in keeping with the idea that mingling of the sexes outside the home was "un-Islamic" and dangerous for public morality. Today, the hardliners want to "Islamize" the campus anew, but also to redress the unintended consequences of the feminization of higher education in Iran. The new gender segregation measures are primarily aimed at protecting the life chances of men, in education, marriage and the job market, and at shielding the state from political pressure amidst high unemployment and overall economic malaise. http://www.merip.org/mero/mero101812
Also useful – United Nations, "[Iran] Human Development Report 2011" http://hdrstats.undp.org/images/explanations/IRN.pdf; and Sandeep Dikshit, "Iran says "tangible" progress in India-Afghanistan link," The Hindu [India] [October 2012] http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/iran-says-tangible-progress-in-indiaafghanistan-link/article4003285.ece
ISRAELI POLICIES AND PERSPECTIVES
Bibi's Three Steps Forward, One Back
By Trita Parsi, The Daily Beast [October 11, 2012]
---- Once again, the threat of military action had succeeded in yielding more sanctions on Iran, limiting Obama's diplomatic maneuverability, and getting a U.S. commitment for a trip wire for war with Iran.Netanyahu's strategy has been to take three steps forward and, occasionally, once he has gotten what he wants, he takes a step back. Declaring victory every time Netanyahu agrees to back off temporarily confuses tactical developments with the larger strategic picture. It is a fundamental misunderstanding of Netanyahu's strategy: Even though he temporarily dials down his pressure on the U.S., he has nevertheless ensured that the trajectory of developments are in his favor; that is, the U.S. and Iran inch closer to a confrontation. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/11/bibi-s-three-steps-forward-one-back.html
SYRIA: A REGIONAL WAR
The Lebanonization of Syria
By David W. Lesch, Al-Monitor [October 12, 2012]
---- So what happens now? Neither the Syrian rebels nor the Syrian government forces have the wherewithal right now to land a knockout punch against their opposite number. Unless there is something that is injected into the current equation — such as outside military intervention — that would create an imbalance of power on one side or the other, a stalemate of bloodletting and the disintegration of state and society will continue. The new UN special envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, has it right. His latest pessimistic report on Syria will not raise unrealistic expectations. The conflict has become so existential and militarized on both sides that no new diplomatic initiative stands a chance. The domestic, regional and international dimensions of the crisis have become more intertwined — and therefore more complicated and difficult to unravel without causing more harm than good. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/the-lebanonization-of-syria.html#ixzz29f2IAXwy
Syria and the battle for regional control
By David Hearst, The Guardian [UK] [October 16, 2012]
---- What emerges loud and clear from Istanbul is that toppling Assad is not the problem. With the right weapons, it could be over in two months. It's the makeup and allegiance of the post-Assad government that Syria's regional neighbours are really fighting for. The proxy war being waged in Syria is a battle not for Syrians, but for regional control. The Iran government tells their Turkish counterparts every time they meet that they hate what Assad is doing to his people, but the bottom line is that Iran wants access to and influence over the government that replaces it. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/16/syria-battle-regional-control
Iran and Turkey Join Syria Peace Envoy in Call for Truce
By Anne Barnard and Rick Gladstone, New York Times [October 17, 2012]
---- Iran declared support on Wednesday for the new Syria peace envoy's cease-fire proposal, joining Turkey in a rare moment of accord between two of the regional powers backing opposite sides in the 19-month conflict that has pitted the Syrian government against an array of armed opponents. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/world/middleeast/iran-and-turkey-join-syria-peace-envoy-in-truce-call.html?hpw
Inside Syria
Holy Warriors: A field guide to Syria's jihadi groups.
By Arun Lund, Foreign Policy [October 15, 2012]
---- Even the most well-known insurgent alliance, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a loose umbrella term used by several inter-related insurgent networks, is hardly the secular movement it is portrayed as in the West, where it is represented by a small coterie of exiled military defectors. In Syria, the main body of FSA networks has come to resemble a Sunni sectarian movement, which is increasingly influenced by Islamist ideology. The reasons for this shift towards overt sectarianism and Islamic radicalism are complex and interrelated. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/15/holy_warriors?page=full
Enemies of Assad in Syria fit a mold: Poor, pious, rural
---- Syria Most of the rebels fighting government forces in the city of Aleppo fit a specific mold: They're poor, religiously conservative and usually come from the underdeveloped countryside nearby.
They bring to the battle their fury over years of economic marginalization, fired by a pious fervor, and they say their fight in the civil war is not only against President Bashar Assad but also the elite merchants and industrialists who dominate the city and have stuck by the regime. The rebels regard this support for the government to be an act of betrayal. The blend of poverty, religious piety and anger could define the future of Aleppo, and perhaps the rest of Syria, if the rebels take over the country's largest city, which is also its economic engine. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57533688/enemies-of-assad-in-syria-fit-a-mold-poor-pious-rural/
Rebel Arms Flow Is Said to Benefit Jihadists in Syria
By David E. Sanger, New York Times [October 14, 2012]
---- Most of the arms shipped at the behest of Saudi Arabia and Qatar to supply Syrian rebel groups fighting the government of Bashar al-Assad are going to hard-line Islamic jihadists, and not the more secular opposition groups that the West wants to bolster, according to American officials and Middle Eastern diplomats. That conclusion casts into doubt whether the White House's strategy of minimal and indirect intervention in the Syrian conflict is accomplishing its intended purpose of helping a democratic-minded opposition topple an oppressive government, or is instead sowing the seeds of future insurgencies hostile to the United States. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/15/world/middleeast/jihadists-receiving-most-arms-sent-to-syrian-rebels.html?hp
Tensions between Syria and Turkey
U.S. steps up support of Turkey amid Syrian conflict
By Craig Whitlock, Washington Post [October 19, 2012]
---- The U.S. government is intensifying its intelligence sharing and military consultations with Turkey behind the scenes as both countries confront the possibility that Syria's civil conflict could escalate into a regional war, according to U.S. and NATO officials. The Obama administration has said it wants to avoid getting drawn militarily into Syria and for months has resisted pressure from Arab allies and some Republicans to back Syria's rebel groups more forcefully. But as Syria's internal conflict has increasingly spilled across its northern border into Turkey, the U.S. government has stepped up cooperation with its key NATO ally. In recent weeks, military officials from both countries have met to make contingency plans to impose no-fly zones over Syrian territory or seize Syria's stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, U.S. officials said. U.S. intelligence agencies were also the source of a tip that led the Turkish military to intercept and ground a Syrian passenger plane en route from Moscow to Damascus last week on suspicions that it was carrying Russian-made military hardware, according to U.S. officials. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/2012/10/19/98b4f104-1a1e-11e2-b235-9cd54b35db6f_print.html
As Assad Hangs on, Turkey Confronts Failure in Syria
By Andrew Parasiliti, Al-Monitor [October 9, 2012]
---- Turkish President Abdullah Gul said this week that Syria is becoming the "worst-case scenario that we've all been dreading." The shelling across the Turkish-Syrian border, now entering its seventh day, gives further testimony, as if any were needed, that Turkey's Syria policies have failed and that the civil war in Syria is also a regional, sectarian war, with no end in sight. Turkish intervention in Syria is unpopular and Ankara may be desperate to end it. A clear majority of Turkish citizens oppose intervention in Syria, according to a recent poll. Just two years ago, Turkey prospered under a "good neighbor" policy with Syria, Iran and Iraq. Now Turkey has problems along all three borders. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/turkeysyriacase.html#ixzz29f2wl19V
Also useful – John Glaser, "Turkey Has Fired on Syria 87 Times, Killed 12 Syrian Soldiers," Antiwar.com [October 20, 2012] http://news.antiwar.com/2012/10/20/turkey-has-fired-on-syria-87-times-killed-12-syrian-soldiers/; Eyup Can, "Syria's Air Defenses Would Stifle A Turkish Military Intervention," Al-Monitor [October 16, 2012] http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/01/10/turkey-cannot-sustain-buffer-zone-in-syria.html#ixzz29wn2JQ7H; and Jason Ditz, "Turkey's Southern Buildup May Aim at Kurds, Not Syrian Government," Antiwar.com [October 16, 2012] http://news.antiwar.com/2012/10/16/turkeys-southern-buildup-may-aim-at-kurds-not-syrian-govt/
The War Spills into Lebanon
In Lebanon, everyone loses
By Mark Levine, Aljazeera [October 21, 2012]
---- The latest blast to rock Beirut could be a desperate hurrah from the Assad government - but were they behind it? … Ultimately, everyone loses if this bombing heralds a wider expansion of the Syrian conflict into Lebanon. Even in the best of times Beirut is a city on edge. Before I left in mid-October, many Lebanese friends expressed the fear that the war would spill over but were too weary from all the troubles of the last few years to think beyond how to plan a quick exit from Beirut and even Lebanon if things suddenly got out of control. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/10/20121021113431671978.html
(Video) Lebanon capital tense after public funeral
From Aljazeera [October 21, 2012]
---- Opposition leaders urge calm as clashes erupt outside PM's offices shortly after slain spy chief is laid to rest. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/10/2012102113542122371.html
And Now Trouble in Jordan
The Jordanian spring has begun
By Zaki Bani Rashid, The Guardian [UK] [October 19, 2012]
---- The call for reform started in Jordan well before the Arab spring. However, it has intensified since – not only because of the Arab revolutions, but also in response to widespread state corruption. Jordan's reformers are demanding constitutional changes; in particular, changes to our election law so that a truly representative parliament is possible, together with an elected prime minister who is accountable to parliament. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/19/jordanian-spring-has-begun
[haw-info] HAW Notes 10/16/12: April 5-7 conference; U.S. Afghanistan deaths; recent articles of interest
Here are some notes, followed by our every-two-or-three-weeks set of links to recent articles of interest.
1. The deadline for proposals for the April 5-7 HAW conference in Baltimore, "The New Faces of War," has been re-set at December 15. (However, those who send proposals before the original October 30 deadline will still get Yes or No answers in early November. ) The Call for Proposals is at http://www.historiansagainstwar.org/conf2013. Proposals and questions should be sent to conf@historiansagaintwar.org.
2. Plenary sessions in the April 5-7 conference will include talks by Alfred McCoy of the University of Wisconsin and Marilyn Young of New York University, along with others yet to be arranged.
3. A recent Afghanistan milestone - the 2,000th U.S. military death, brings to mind the study by Stony Brook University's Center for Study of Working Class Life, American Military Deaths in Afghanistan, and the Communities from Which Those Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and Marines Came, by Michael Zweig, Michael Porter, and Yuxiang Huang.
"The Missile Crisis That Never Went Away"
By Stephen Starr, David Krieger, and Daniel Ellsberg, TruthDig.com, posted October 16
"The Week the World Stood Still: The Cuban Missile Crisis and Ownership of the World"
By Noam Chomsky, TomDispatch.com, posted October 15
"The Vietnam War as You've Never Seen It – from Hanoi"
By David Austin Walsh, History News Network, posted October 15
Interview with Lien-Hang Ngyuen, author of Hanoi's War: An International History of the War for Peace in Vietnam
"What the Cuban Missile Crisis Should Teach Us"
By Fred Kaplan, Slate, posted October 10
"Romney's Five Wars"
By Juan Cole, Informed Comment blog, posted October 9
The author teaches history at the University of Michigan
"Homer Simpson and the WMDs in Iraq ... (Doh) ... I Mean Iran"
By Nicholas J. S. Davies, Huffington Post blog, posted October 8
"American Exceptionalism: Exposed"
By Walter A. McDougall, Eurasia Review, posted October 5
The author teaches history and international relations at the University of Pennsylvania
"As U.S. Death Toll in Afghanistan Passes 2,000 Mark, Phyllis Bennis on America's Longest War"
From Democracy Now, with transcript, posted October 2
"Ten Lessons the U.S. Should Learn from Afghanistan's History"
By William Byrd, ForeignPolicy.com, posted October 1
"Are Drones Keeping Us in a Losing Cause Longer?"
By William Astore, Huffington Post, posted September 27
The author is a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who teaches history at the Pennsylvania College of Technology
Thanks to Rosalyn Baxandall for suggesting articles that are included in the above list. Suggestions can be sent to jimobrien48@gmail.com.
Hello All – With the end of the endless presidential campaign finally in sight, all parties to the dispute about Iran's nuclear program have signaled their interest in re-starting negotiations, which have been suspended since last summer. As indicated in some of the articles linked below, while Iran has proposed a plan to end medium-enriched uranium (20 percent) in exchange for a guaranteed supply of that fuel, the United States and its allies (the "P5+1") have not budged from their more inclusive demands. During the negotiations in the fall of 2009, such an offer might have settled the conflict, but the "West" has raised its sights and is putting forth demands that everyone agrees are non-starters.
If/when negotiations resume, two major developments since last summer may affect the negotiating strategies of the parties. It appears that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has succumbed to massive internal and external (US) pressures to not even think about attacking Iran without US approval and support; and he has decided to hold early elections to re-stabilize his governing coalition, now in disarray. Also, the economic upheaval rocking Iran over the last several weeks has led many to conclude that the "sanctions are working" and that regime change may be accomplished without the use of military force. Many commentators believe that this will make the United States less anxious to make an offer that Iran would accept.
Because the issue is so pressing, I've linked an expanded section of articles about the impact of sanctions on Iran, and also about Iran's currency crisis. The gist of the links article, imo, is that there is no evidence in the historical record that economic sanctions ever "work"; that while the sanctions are causing great hardship to Iran's people, by themselves the sanctions don't seem likely to deny the government sufficient revenue to govern; and that Iran's currency crisis is due only in part to the sanctions, with blame for most of the currency crisis due to mismanagement by the government. To the extent that this latter view is shared by much of Iran's electorate, it could lead to significant political changes in next June's presidential election.
Is a war between Turkey and Syria possible/likely? The consensus among informed commentators is "no"; but the events of the past two weeks have put into question just exactly what Turkey wants out of this crisis. Cross-border artillery shots and the forced landing of a plane carrying Russian equipment of some kind to Syria doesn't seem like much of a cause for war. Yet there are the tanks, on the border. I especially recommend VJ Prashad's article linked below; and for daily updates, the website Syria Comment is especially helpful (http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/).
I apologize for no IWW last week. I spent that weekend at a very informative Russell Tribunal on Palestine. A good speech by Phyllis Bennis is online at https://www.freespeech.org/russelltribunal. Sherry Wolf wrote a brief review of the events at http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/10/12/civil-rights-icons-to-palestine-were-with-you/. The RToP website is http://www.russelltribunalonpalestine.com/en/.
Back to Basics [On bias at the IAEA]
By Peter Jenkins, LobeLog [October 12, 2012]
[FB - Peter Jenkins is a former British envoy to the IAEA.]
---- Perhaps one can legitimately say that the case for seeing Iran as an enemy and as a threat to our homelands is unproven. So what? Perhaps it is unreasonable to see Iran in these terms, but does that matter? Yes, because it colors the Western approach to the nuclear problem. It leads us to place undue weight on the application of pressure to induce Iran to submit to our wishes; to misrepresent evidence to justify additional pressure; and to advance contentious interpretations of Iran's safeguards agreement, the IAEA Statute, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the UN Charter, to prejudice the international community against Iran and justify measures that harm Iran. http://www.lobelog.com/back-to-basics/
Global powers launch new push to end Iran nuclear crisis
By Julian Borger, The Guardian, [October 11, 2012]
[FB - This lengthy article includes a useful overview – from the "Western" perspective – of the recent course of negotiations about Iran's nuclear program.]
---- Six global powers will launch a diplomatic drive after the US elections aimed at defusing the Iranian nuclear crisis in the next few months and avoiding the eruption of a new Middle East conflict next year. A "reformulated" proposal will offer limited relief from existing sanctions and other incentives for Iran to limit the level of enrichment of its uranium stockpile. … If the step-by-step approach fails there could be an attempt to "go big" with an ambitious, comprehensive settlement that would allow Iran to continue producing uranium at low levels (under 5%) of enrichment but under stricter international monitoring and controls. … In an effort to ratchet up the pressure, European foreign ministers are due to meet in Luxembourg on Monday to agree a further tightening of sanctions, imposing bans on more Iranian banks and closing loopholes in shipping restrictions imposed in the summer. The diplomatic opening is expected to close again in the spring, as the Iranian leadership is likely to be distracted by the campaign for the country's own presidential elections in June. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/11/diplomatic-defusing-iranian-nuclear-crisis
Also useful – Barbara Slavin, "US Looks to Renew Iran Talks After the November Elections," Al-Monitor [October 8, 2012] http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/us-is-looking-to-renew--iran-tal.html#ixzz28kH1srdi
(Video) Iran FM Salehi: Iran nuclear bomb would decrease Iran's security
By Laura Rozen, Al-Monitor [October 2, 2012] – 70 minutes video
--- Iran's foreign minister said Monday that Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon would threaten Iran's security and be destabilizing for the region. Ali Akbar Salehi, the MIT-educated PhD engineer who previously served as Iran's longtime envoy to the UN atomic watchdog agency, said that Iran acquiring one or two nuclear bombs would dramatically increase the threats Iran faces, and not be a deterrent to nuclear powers with far larger nuclear stockpiles. "Had Iran chosen to [go] nuclear in the sense of weaponization, it would not be a deterrent for Iran," Salehi, speaking in English, told foreign policy experts at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York Monday. "It would attract more threats from the other side. http://backchannel.al-monitor.com/index.php/2012/10/2403/iran-fm-salehi-iran-nuclear-bomb-would-destabilize-iran/
Also useful – From Reuters, "Iran to enrich uranium to 60 percent if nuclear talks fail," [October 2, 2012] http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/02/us-iran-nuclear-uranium-idUSBRE8910VJ20121002; David E. Sanger, "Iran Offers Plan, Dismissed by U.S., on Nuclear Crisis," New York Times [October 4, 2012] http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/world/middleeast/iranians-offer-9-step-plan-to-end-nuclear-crisis.html?hpw; Thomas Erdbrink, "Iran Denies Plan to End Nuclear Standoff," New York Times [October 6, 2012] http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/world/middleeast/iran-denies-report-of-plan-to-end-nuclear-standoff.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print; from Reuters, "Iran offers to halt 20 percent enrichment if given fuel for research reactor," [October 13, 2012] http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/iran-offers-to-halt-20-percent-enrichment-if-given-fuel-for-research-reactor-1.469758; and Ilan Ben Zion, "Iran's FM offers to limit uranium enrichment if world guarantees supply of fissile fuel," Times of Israel [October 7, 2012] http://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-foreign-minister-suggests-limiting-enrichment-in-exchange-for-more-uranium/
With 'sabotage' charge, Iran takes hostile tone with U.N. watchdog
By Joby Warrick, Washington Post [October 7, 2012]
---- Iran is ratcheting up pressure on the U.N. agency responsible for overseeing the country's nuclear program, accusing its inspectors of engaging in spying and sabotage and threatening to restrict U.N. access to Iranian nuclear facilities. So strident has been Iran's criticism of the International Atomic Energy Agency in recent weeks that some Western officials fear that the country is preparing to officially downgrade its cooperation with the nuclear watchdog. The Vienna-based agency is the only international body allowed to routinely visit Iran's most sensitive nuclear installations. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/with-sabotage-charge-iran-takes-hostile-tone-with-un-watchdog/2012/10/07/c738fbbc-0f36-11e2-bb5e-492c0d30bff6_story.html
New Senate Push to Pledge Unconditional Support for Israeli Preventive War on Iran
From Huffington Post [October 11, 2012]
---- Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is planning to press the Senate next month to pledge U.S. troops, money, and political support to Israel should Bibi Netanyahu launch a preventive war on Iran. Graham's mendacity on Iran policy should by now be notorious. His most recent victory was to convince Congress to endorse Netanyahu's redline for war with Iran instead of the redline laid out by the president. The trick was that, in pushing that measure, Graham disingenuously claimed that Obama's redline was nuclear weapons "capability." And Congress bought it. In reality, the president very clearly rejected that redline and said the U.S redline was to prevent Iran from actually getting the bomb, not getting an amorphous "capability." http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jamal-abdi/israel-iran_b_1959607.html
Also useful – Jim Lobe, "Anti-Iran Hawks Maintain P.R. Offensive," Inter Press Service [October 2012] http://www.ipsnews.net/2012/10/anti-iran-hawks-maintain-p-r-offensive/
Mitt Romney Remarks at Virginia Military Institute
[FB - This is an excerpt from Romney's speech, in which he discusses Iran and the Middle East.]
… The relationship between the president of the United States and the prime minister of Israel, for example, our closest ally in the region, has suffered great strains. The president explicitly stated that his goal was to put daylight between the United States and Israel, and he's succeeded. This is a dangerous situation that has set back the hope of peace in the Middle East and emboldened our mutual adversaries, especially Iran. Iran today has never been closer to a nuclear weapons capability. It has never posed a greater danger to our friends, our allies and to us. … I will put the leaders of Iran on notice that the United States and our friends and allies will prevent them from acquiring nuclear weapons capability. I will not hesitate to impose new sanctions on Iran and will -- and will tighten the sanctions we currently have. I will restore the permanent presence of aircraft carrier task forces in both the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf. And I'll work with Israel to increase our military assistance and coordination. For the sake of peace, we must make clear to Iran through actions, not just words, that their nuclear pursuit will not be tolerated. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/us/politics/mitt-romney-remarks-at-virginia-military-institute.html
Whatever Happened to that Iranian Bomb Plot Case?
By Michael Kaufman, Counterpunch [October 10, 2012]
---- It becomes hard for the audience to concentrate on the intended theme– The Iranians are plotting against us– when fundamental questions of common sense are crowding the mind: Why would the Iranians be so careless as to use Arbabsiar, a man who seems singularly unqualified to carry out such a mission? Why would they initiate such a dangerous escalation? What tangible benefits would be gained from killing the Ambassador? http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/10/10/whatever-happened-to-that-iranian-bomb-plot-case/
IRANIAN POLICIES AND PERSPECTIVES
Iran's Murky Political Future: An Interview with Farideh Farhi
From the Council on Foreign Relations [October 4, 2012]
---- The Iranian election will happen in June 2013, and at this particular moment it's not at all clear who the candidates will be. But there is no doubt that, given the kind of dynamics that have occurred in Iran and the reality that Ahmadinejad's presidency has raised questions about the management of the economy, accountability, as well as better relations with the outside world, have come to the fore. Individuals like Rafsanjani, who are known in Iran for essentially representing the technocratic approach to the management of the economy as well as better relations for Iran abroad, have gained more prominence. People have begun speculating about whether the Iranian election would essentially be an election that would bring forth a candidate that would represent ideas that are similar to Rafsanjani's and whether that candidate would be a successful one. http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-murky-political-future/p29205
(Video) An Interview with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
From Charlie Rose program [September 28, 2012] – 33 minutes
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12580
Also useful – Nasser Karimi, "Iran may cut ties with UAE over disputed islands," Associated Press [October 9, 2012] http://www.thestate.com/2012/10/09/2474328/iran-may-cut-ties-with-uae-over.html#.UHV3r65D6So
UN report finds Iran's crackdown expanding
By Peter James Spielmann, Associated Press [October 11, 2012]
---- The U.N.'s human rights expert on Iran is condemning the Islamic Republic's reliance on stoning as a form of capital punishment, citing that as just one of a number of ''deeply troubling'' Iranian rights violations, many of which are ''systemic in nature,'' according to a report circulating among U.N. delegations. Ahmed Shaheed, the Geneva-based U.N. Human Rights Council's special rapporteur on Iran, also called for an ''extensive, impartial and independent investigation into the violence in the weeks and months that followed the presidential election of 2009." The document will be the basis for a General Assembly resolution critical of Iran's human rights violations, which will probably be voted on in December. http://www.boston.com/news/world/united-nations/2012/10/11/report-finds-iran-crackdown-expanding/x0HuTAfr6KW6CIrkMpzQaO/story.html
Also useful – Thomas Erdbrink, "The West's Stalwart Ally in the War on Drugs: Iran (Yes, That Iran)," New York Times [October 12, 2012] http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/world/middleeast/iran-fights-drug-smuggling-at-borders.html?pagewanted=all
Are Sanctions "Working"?
Sanctioning society: From Iraq to Iran
By Murtaza Hussain, Aljazeera [October 2012]
---- Untargeted sanctions against a country is not an alternative to war, but a form of war in and of themselves. After over three decades of service with the United Nations, working across the world on development and humanitarian assistance projects, in 1998 the UN Chief Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq Denis Halliday turned in his resignation to the organisation. Halliday wrote that he could no longer continue administering a programme which he said "satisfied the legal definition of genocide". In later interviews he further explained his rationale for resigning from the organisation to which he had given over three decades of his life, and about the horrors that economic sanctions had visited upon the civilian population of Iraq:
"My innate sense of justice was and still is outraged by the violence that UN sanctions have brought upon and continues to bring upon, the lives of children, families - the extended families, the loved ones of Iraq. There is no justification for killing the young people of Iraq, not the aged, not the sick, not the rich, not the poor. Some will tell you that the leadership is punishing the Iraqi people. That is not my perception, or experience from living in Baghdad. And were that to be the case - how can that possibly justify further punishment, in fact collective punishment, by the United Nations?"
Today as the United States continues to intensify its international economic sanctions programme against Iran, it is worth revisiting the catastrophic harm which a previous sanctions campaign against Saddam Hussein's Iraq had upon that country. While the sanctions failed to remove Saddam from power and by many accounts helped him solidify his grip on the country by keeping the overwhelming majority of the population focused purely on subsistence, they took a calculatedly devastating toll on Iraqi civilians. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/10/201210373854792889.html
The Temptation of Regime Change
By Paul Pillar, The National Interest [October 3, 2012]
---- Resistance to any lessening of sanctions as part of a negotiated agreement with Iran on the nuclear question has, unfortunately, already been strong, even before the newest protests. That resistance has been reflected in the relatively inflexible negotiating posture to date of the United States and its partners of the P5 +1. A hope in some quarters that economic pressure will hasten the demise of the current Iranian regime no doubt is one of the causes of that resistance, even though that is not explicitly an official objective of the sanctions. The more that street protests in Tehran sustain that hope, the stronger is likely to be resistance in the United States to any sanctions relief, and the more politically difficult it will be for any American administration to strike a nuclear deal, which would require such relief. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/the-temptation-regime-change-7554
Also useful – Rick Gladstone, "Data on Iran Dims Outlook for Economy," New York Times [October 12, 2012] http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/world/middleeast/data-on-iran-dims-outlook-for-economy.html?ref=world; from Reuters, "Iran's sea trade buckles under Western sanctions," [October 11, 2012] http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=287491; and Rick Gladstone, "Iran Cites I.M.F. Data to Prove Sanctions Aren't Working," New York Times [October 9, 2012]
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/world/middleeast/iran-cites-imf-data-to-prove-sanctions-arent-working.html?ref=world; from Reuters, "Iran Can Manage Hit From Sanctions: IMF," Reuters [October 9, 2012] http://forward.com/articles/163935/iran-can-manage-hit-from-sanctions-imf/#ixzz29Jp9RnSE; and Samuel Rubenfeld, "U.S., Europe Coordinate to Tighten the Screw on Iran," Wall St. Journal [October 5, 2012] [FB – only part of this interesting article is available on-line w/o a subscription] http://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2012/10/05/u-s-europe-coordinate-to-tighten-the-screw-on-iran/
Some useful resources - Robert A. Pape, "Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work," International Security (Autumn 1977), http://www.stanford.edu/class/ips216/Readings/pape_97%20%28jstor%29.pdf; and Gary Clyde Hufbauer, et al., Economic Sanctions Reconsidered (2008), which can be read on-line at
http://www.piie.com/publications/chapters_preview/4075/01iie4075.pdf
The Currency Crisis
War By Other Means: The Forces Behind Iran's Currency Crisis
By Sasan Fayazmanesh, Counterpunch [October 11, 2012]
---- In September and early October of 2012 the Iranian currency, rial, was in a state of free fall relative to the value of major world currencies and gold. The government of Iran, as well as the Central of Bank of Iran appeared to be helpless in stopping the nosedive. There have been, indeed, various explanations as to what caused the recent economic crisis in Iran, particularly the free fall in rial. But, for the most part the explanations seem to concentrate on the effect of draconian sanctions imposed on Iran by Israel's allies, the US and EU, as well as the ineptness of the Iranian government, led by President Ahmadinejad, in dealing with the sanctions. Which one is more to blame would depend on the political perspective of the analyst. … The September-October 2012 currency crisis in Iran is therefore not new. Such crises have been coming in waves. But each time a new lower value for rial is established. Like many economic crisis elsewhere, past or present, it is difficult to say what is causing these waves. http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/10/11/the-forces-behind-irans-currency-crisis/
Iran Bazaar Strikes signal Misery, not Sanctions 'Victory'
By Juan Cole, Informed Comment [October 4, 2012]
---- On Wednesday, the Tehran covered bazaar was closed, and the traditional market in some other cities such as Mashhad also went on strike, with demonstrators protesting the collapse of the Iranian currency, the rial. Until last November, the rial was about 10,000 to the dollar. Then it fell to 12,000. Last summer it hit 16,000. Some merchants were offering 35,000 to the dollar on Wednesday and expected the rial to decline further. Although the US, the EU and Israel's government will gloat that 'sanctions are working,' it is unclear that any such thing is true. http://www.juancole.com/2012/10/iran-bazaar-strikes-signal-misery-not-sanctions-victory.html
Also useful – Peter Beaumont,"A collapse in the rial, greeted with glee by some, is a cause not for celebration but for fear," The Guardian [UK] [October 2, 2012] http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/02/the-currency-war-on-iran; Mohammad Ali Shabani, "Iran's Currency Faces Pressures Beyond the US-Led Sanctions," Al-Monitor [September 15, 2012] http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/more-than-sanctions-depressing-i.html#ixzz28jYwCrFc; and BBC News, "Iran's parliament to reconsider subsidy reform," [October 7, 202] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19863486
MILITARY THREATS AND MANEUVERS
U.S. Suspects Iran Was Behind a Wave of Cyberattacks
By Thom Shanker and David E. Sanger, New York Times [October 13, 2012]
---- American intelligence officials are increasingly convinced that Iran was the origin of a serious wave of network attacks that crippled computers across the Saudi oil industry and breached financial institutions in the United States, episodes that contributed to a warning last week from Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta that the United States was at risk of a "cyber-Pearl Harbor." After Mr. Panetta's remarks on Thursday night, American officials described an emerging shadow war of attacks and counterattacks already under way between the United States and Iran in cyberspace. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/14/world/middleeast/us-suspects-iranians-were-behind-a-wave-of-cyberattacks.html?ref=world
Robert Gates: War on Iran Would Be 'Catastrophic,' Make Tehran Nukes 'Inevitable'
By John Glaser, Antiwar.com [October 4, 2012]
---- A US or Israeli attack on Iran would "prove catastrophic" and "make a nuclear-armed Iran inevitable," former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said in a speech Wednesday night. Neither the United States nor Israel is capable of wiping out Iran's nuclear capability, Gates said, and "such an attack would make a nuclear-armed Iran inevitable. They would just bury the program deeper and make it more covert." Not only would Iran be likely to reconstitute its defunct nuclear weapons program, but Tehran might also respond by disrupting world oil traffic in the Persian Gulf and launching a wave of terrorism across the region, Gates claimed. http://news.antiwar.com/2012/10/04/robert-gates-war-on-iran-would-be-catastrophic-and-make-a-nuclear-iran-inevitable/print/
Also useful – Golnaz Esfandiari, "Study: Thousands Would Die in an Attack on Iran's Nuclear Sites," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty [October 2 2012] http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/10/study-thousands-would-die-in-an-attack-on-irans-nuclear-sites/263165/
A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East?
Middle East Security at the Crossroads: Urgent Need for a WMD-free Zone
By Kate Hudson, Aljazeera [October 12, 2012]
[FB - Dr Kate Hudson is general secretary of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament and a leading anti-nuclear and anti-war campaigner.]
---- As tensions mount in the Middle East, so do the demands for a regional WMD-free zone. Nearly 40 years after such a zone was first proposed on the floor of the United Nations, the need is as urgent as ever. So it's good news that finally some tentative steps are being made to move forward on outlawing the Middle East's weapons of mass destruction. This December, the Finnish government is hosting a conference in Helsinki, on behalf of the UN, with experienced diplomat and politician Jaakko Laajava bringing together the region's states to discuss this most elusive but necessary goal.Many will see this proposal as a pipedream, but Nuclear Weapons-Free Zones (NWFZs) are highly successful forms of collective security across large parts of the world. Currently, 115 states and 18 other territories belong to 5 regional treaties, covering a majority of the earth's surface, including almost the entire southern hemisphere. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/10/2012101012117473948.html
ISRAELI POLICY AND PERSPECTIVES
How Netanyahu's bomb Iran ploy failed
By Gareth Porter, Inter Press Service [October 4, 2012]
---- Binyamin Netanyahu's explicit aim was to get the US to adopt his "red line" - meaning that it would threaten military force against Iran if it does not bow to a demand to cease enrichment. The rest of the world can stop worrying about Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's supposed threat to bomb Iran. Netanyahu's speech at the United Nations General Assembly last week appears to mark the end of his long campaign to convince the world that he might launch a unilateral strike on Iran's nuclear programme. The reason for Netanyahu's retreat is the demonstration of unexpectedly strong pushback against Netanyahu's antics by President Barack Obama. And that could be the best news on the Iran nuclear issue in many years. The evidence now available indicates that the Netanyahu campaign about a unilateral strike on Iran was from the beginning a bluff aimed at pressuring President Barack Obama to adopt both "crippling sanctions" against Iran's oil export sector and an explicit threat of war if Iran did not end its nuclear programme. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/10/201210493522531400.html
Also useful - Graham T. Allison, Jr. and Shai Feldman, "Why Netanyahu Backed Down," New York Times [October 12, 2012] http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/opinion/why-netanyahu-retreated-on-attacking-iran-soon.html?ref=opinion; and Jim Lobe, "U.S. Public Sees Israeli Strike on Iran As Harmful," LobeLog [October 9, 2012] http://www.lobelog.com/u-s-public-sees-israeli-strike-on-iran-as-harmful/
Israel versus America versus Iran
By Shlomo Ben Ami, Aljazeera [October 8, 2012]
[FB - Former Israeli foreign minister Shlomo Ben Ami is vice president of the Toledo International Centre for Peace.]
---- For Israel, war with Iran is not about neutralising an existential threat; it is about reasserting its regional status. Israel's leaders see their country's standing in the region being seriously threatened by the emergence of a hostile Islamist regime in Egypt; the possibility that a similarly hostile regime will eventually emerge in Syria; the fragility of traditionally friendly Jordan; and the dangerous boost that the regional Islamist awakening has given to Israel's sworn enemies, Hamas and Hezbollah. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/10/2012107151246788109.html
Also useful/interesting – Philip Weiss, "Did 'Foreign Policy' plant false Israeli embassy story?" MondoWeiss [October 13, 2012] http://mondoweiss.net/2012/10/did-foreign-policy-plant-israeli-story-leading-to-deputy-ambassadors-reassignment-to-copenhagen.html
Netanyahu Calls for Early Elections in Israel
By Jodi Rudoren, New York Times [October 9, 2012]
---- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Tuesday called for elections early next year instead of as scheduled in October 2013, saying that conversations with his coalition partners had proved it would be impossible to pass "a responsible budget" with deep cuts. A victory around the same time that the United States is either inaugurating a new president or starting a second Obama term would probably embolden the prime minister, allowing him to continue his aggressive approach toward Iran, while mostly ignoring the Palestinian conflict. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/world/middleeast/netanyahu-calls-for-early-elections-in-israel.html?ref=world
CIVIL WAR/INTERVENTION IN SYRIA
Syria's Islamist rebels join forces against Assad
By Mariam Karouny, Reuters [October 11, 2012]
[FB – On "Syria Comment," this article is described as "the most important article of the month."]
---- Powerful Syrian Islamist brigades, frustrated at the growing divisions among rebels, have joined forces in what they say is a "liberation front" to topple President Bashar al-Assad. Mistrust and miscommunication have been a feature of the rebel campaign against Assad. Differences over leadership, tactics and sources of funding have widened the rifts between largely autonomous brigades scattered across Syria. After more than a month of secret meetings, leaders of Islamist brigades - including the Farooq Brigade that operates mainly in Homs province and the heavyweight Sukour al-Sham brigade of Idlib - formed the "Front to Liberate Syria". http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/us-syria-crisis-rebels-idUSBRE89A0Y920121011
Also useful – Tony Karon, "Is the Glass Half Full for Syria's Assad?" Time [October 11, 2012] http://world.time.com/2012/10/11/is-the-glass-half-full-for-syrias-assad/#ixzz2961RKp94; Associated Press, "Syria's civil war leaves its cities, economy and cultural heritage in shambles," [October 9, 2012] http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/syrias-civil-war-leaves-its-cities-economy-and-cultural-heritage-in-shambles/2012/10/09/e977aeb6-1243-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_print.html; and Samer Araabi, "The Attack-Syria Coalition: Then and Now," Right Web [[October 10, 2012] http://rightweb.irc-online.org/articles/display/the_attack_syria_coalition_then_and_now#_edn19
The Turkey-Syria Confrontation
What Will Ankara Do?
By Vijay Prashad, Asia Times [October 12, 2012]
---- Death has escaped from Syria. The numbers within its borders have climbed to near 30,000. But over the past few months, death has scaled the borders into Lebanon, threatening, as the Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati put it, to "drown" the country in its neighbor's flood. Turkey has not been immune from the escalating violence either. Syrian refugee camps have been targeted by the Syrian government's forces, and yesterday a mortar attack into the Turkish town of Akcakale killed at least five people and wounded eight. These numbers are miniscule compared to the dead Syrians, and to the dead Turkish Kurds (30,000 killed, including in "operational accidents"). Nevertheless, they have set Turkey on edge. http://www.zcommunications.org/what-will-ankara-do-by-vijay-prashad
(Video) Is a Turkey-Syria conflict inevitable?
From Aljazeera [October 7, 2012]
---- "Inside Syria" - As the two countries exchange cross-border fire, we ask if it is in Turkey's national interest to go into Syria. Guests include Joshua Landis of Syria Comment. http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidesyria/2012/10/201210774959651250.html
Also useful – Liz Sly, "Turkey says Syrian jet carried Russian arms, drawing Moscow deeper into crisis," Washington Post [October 11, 2012] http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syria-accuses-turkey-of-air-piracy-after-plane-incident/2012/10/11/34674b1e-1381-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_print.html; Roy Gutman, "Turkey says cargo aboard Syria-bound plane violated rules, but won't say what was found," McClatchy Newspapers [October 11, 2012] http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/10/11/171213/turkish-report-cargo-aboard-seized.html; Patrick Cockburn, "Syria's suffering opens a door for Washington," The Independent [October 7, 2012]
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/syrias-suffering-opens-a-door-for-washington-8200647.html; and Associated Press, "Rising concern about Syria's chemical arsenal, but options of securing it fraught with risk," [October 13, 2012] http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/rising-concern-about-syrias-chemical-arsenal-but-options-of-securing-it-fraught-with-risk/2012/10/13/ac183c90-156b-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_print.html
US Troops Are Now in Jordan
U.S. Military Is Sent to Jordan to Help With Crisis in Syria
By Michael R. Gordon and Elisabeth Bumiller, New York Times [October 9, 2012]
---- The United States military has secretly sent a task force of more than 150 planners and other specialists to Jordan to help the armed forces there handle a flood of Syrian refugees, prepare for the possibility that Syria will lose control of its chemical weapons and be positioned should the turmoil in Syria expand into a wider conflict. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/world/middleeast/us-military-sent-to-jordan-on-syria-crisis.html?ref=world
Also useful – Jason Ditz, "Jordan: US Troops Helping Prepare for Syrian Attack," Antiwar.com [October 11, 2012] http://news.antiwar.com/2012/10/11/jordan-us-troops-helping-prepare-for-syrian-attack/; and (Video) "Jordan: A Kingdom Divided?" Aljazeera [October 7, 2012] – 25 minutes. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=n1kSbG0G2Pg


Will Nouri al-Maliki Survive His Second Term In Office?
Since Nouri al-Maliki first became prime minister of Iraq in April 2006, a recurring talking point about his time in office has been that his days are numbered. Indeed, in a paper I wrote for the Middle East Review of International Affairs quarterly journal in the summer of this year, I cast severe doubt on whether the Iraqi premier would remain in power until the expiry of his second term in 2014.
Now, however, I am no longer so skeptical of al-Maliki's abilities to retain his position. Three reasons lie behind my change of heart.
A weak and divided opposition: The institutionalized sectarianism in Iraqi political life and personal power struggles (some of which go back decades) among the elite mean that coalition alliances are vital for any faction vying for power. While al-Maliki has built a rather loose coalition enlisting the support of the Sadrists and the Kurdish parties, the main opposition bloc- al-Iraqiya- has been marred by numerous splinters, which in turn are divided by infighting.
On the other hand, consensus on broader political issues against the premier does not exist, such that any attempt to dismiss the government through a no-confidence vote would almost certainly fall well short of the 163 out of 248 absolute majority required.
Pragmatic concessions to political allies: In particular, al-Maliki knows how to keep the Kurdish parties in his coalition contented. This has been most apparent in the affair regarding the re-deployment of Peshmerga militiamen at the end of the summer in the Khanaqin district of Diyala province. The pretext for this move was to crack down on insurgents supposedly because the Iraqi security forces were not doing anything about the problem.
In reality, Khanaqin is one of the key disputed territories in Iraq's north, and the aim of the Kurdish parties is to annex the district, a goal that needs to be understood in light of the fact that historically the Kurds have a legitimate claim to these areas, which under Saddam Hussein were subject to an Arabization policy.
Keeping al-Sadr in check: Of all al-Maliki's coalition allies, the ones who have proven to be the biggest thorns in the premier's side are the Sadrists, most notably on the issue of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq as part of the 31 December 2011 deadline stipulated by the Status of Forces Agreement. The anti-American cleric distinguished himself on more than one occasion by threatening to re-activate his 'Mahdi Army' militia should U.S. forces stay beyond this year.
Nonetheless, al-Sadr was quickly cajoled into toning down his rhetoric and backing off his threats once al-Maliki, who would prefer for some American troops to stay at least to provide further training for the Iraqi security forces, launched what Wing terms a 'false offensive' against the Iranian-backed Special Groups in Maysan province in July.
The prime minister clearly wanted to remind al-Sadr that he has on his side the Iraqi security forces, and that any attempt on the cleric's part to revive militant activity could prove disastrous as when the Mahdi Army was forced to disband under an Iranian-brokered ceasefire in early 2008 following the Iraqi-led 'Operation Charge of the Knights' against the Shi'a militants in and around Basra.
Thus, the Sadrist opposition to the U.S. presence has been reduced to mere complaints of words, as all the other factions have agreed to allow a small contingent of U.S. forces to remain after the deadline as 'trainers' for the Iraqi army.
If politics is foremost about retaining power, al-Maliki has proved himself to be a masterful politician. At the same time, his ability to hold on to and consolidate his power base has given rise to some worryingly authoritarian tendencies.
This is especially so in his ongoing attempts to control the Defense Ministry (contrary to the compromise agreement forged by Massoud Barzani in December 2010), as well as the indefinite delays in allowing the police (who answer to local governors, not the premier) to assume responsibility for security in Iraqi cities instead of the army. No wonder then that al-Maliki has a well-grounded image as a typical Middle Eastern autocrat.


Evan Dunham shared his frustration about this situation on Twitter.
As Evan Dunham suggests in this second Tweet, his next fight will be his last. The long-time UFC lightweight will hang up the gloves after his showdown with fellow veteran Francisco Trinaldo. The fight goes down on September in 22 in Sao Paulo, Brazil.


Resources for communities to understand their wildfire risk and strategies for reducing risk.
Updated estimates on housing losses and shelter needs in a major Bay Area earthquake.
An ABAG report on earthquake threats to interdependent transportation and utility systems.
NEW! Wildfire White Paper – The Wildfire White Paper is a resource for Bay Area communities to better understand wildland fire risk in the region. The paper characterizes wildfire hazard in the region, assesses existing wildfire hazard maps, and includes a literature review of Bay Area fire planning documents. A suite of appendices provide links to resources to support communities engaged in wildfire mitigation efforts in their communities. How will your community prepare for wildfire? Visit the report web page, read the white paper, and download the strategy database for yourself.
Do you know what to expect in the next big earthquake? The USGS just released a new website to help Bay Area residents learn about the big issues to expect before, during, and after a major earthquake in an urban area. Get prepared here and learn everything you need to know about living in earthquake country.
Earthquake Housing Loss Report ABAG is pleased to announce the release of our newest research. The new data illustrates the consequences to the region's housing stock from 16 earthquake scenarios. How would your county fare? Visit the web page, read the housing loss and shelter needs white papers, and download the data for yourself.
The Resilience Program of the Association of Bay Area Governments seeks to promote a more sustainable, resilient, and prosperous region where our communities are prepared to withstand and quickly recover from the effects of earthquakes and natural hazards. Learn more.


Ranchers don't get enough love. We've got lots of fence ideas for a ranch style house that will update your home and are easy to install.
A ranch-style house means different things to different people. But no matter if you love the old-school vibe of 1950s-era style or the updated contemporaries of the 21st century, there are curb-boosting ideas that can help your home look its best.
Find and save ideas about Farm fence on Pinterest. | See more ideas about Farm fencing, Fencing and Ranch fencing.
This Pin was discovered by Laura Galloway. Discover (and save) your own Pins on Pinterest.
I have a 1950's ranch style corner house and i need to install a fence Because i have 3 little girls. My problem is, what fence to install that will go with my house?
These Ranch Fence pictures will give you ideas for your own fencing project.
ranch style fencing ... cheap garden fencing ideas cheap fence cheap fence 01 design and landscaping ideas Find this Pin and more on Fencing Ideas by ls45671.


text:
Q: Mystery redirect of domain.com to https://www.domain.com - what could be causing it? I am using apache on Centos and whenever I use domain.com it gets redirected to https://www.domain.com
In general this is fine, but we have an alias domain for the server, domain2.com, which should keep its domain name (ie not add https//www.), but some part of the config is re-mapping this to https://www.domain2.com
I have checked httpd.conf and the .htaccess in the web app directory, but there dont seem to be any Rewrite or Redirect commands doing this.  I have also checked the various include files cpanel/EasyApache uses...
domain2.com is configured as a ServerAlias for the main site.
UPDATE:
The main site is written with CakePHP - I can see its doing the "if not SSL, redirect to https", but still tracking down where the "www." is coming from for the other domain.
UPDATE2:
There was another .htaccess below the app/webroot directory which was doing a redirect of non-www url's to the www. version.
Apache version info:
Server version: Apache/2.2.17 (Unix)
Server built:   Apr 20 2011 16:37:37
Cpanel::Easy::Apache v3.2.5 rev9999
Server's Module Magic Number: 20051115:25
Server loaded:  APR 1.4.2, APR-Util 1.3.10
Compiled using: APR 1.4.2, APR-Util 1.3.10
Architecture:   64-bit
Server MPM:     Prefork
  threaded:     no
    forked:     yes (variable process count)
Server compiled with....
 -D APACHE_MPM_DIR="server/mpm/prefork"
 -D APR_HAS_SENDFILE
 -D APR_HAS_MMAP
 -D APR_HAVE_IPV6 (IPv4-mapped addresses enabled)
 -D APR_USE_SYSVSEM_SERIALIZE
 -D APR_USE_PTHREAD_SERIALIZE
 -D SINGLE_LISTEN_UNSERIALIZED_ACCEPT
 -D APR_HAS_OTHER_CHILD
 -D AP_HAVE_RELIABLE_PIPED_LOGS
 -D DYNAMIC_MODULE_LIMIT=128
 -D HTTPD_ROOT="/usr/local/apache"
 -D SUEXEC_BIN="/usr/local/apache/bin/suexec"
 -D DEFAULT_PIDLOG="logs/httpd.pid"
 -D DEFAULT_SCOREBOARD="logs/apache_runtime_status"
 -D DEFAULT_LOCKFILE="logs/accept.lock"
 -D DEFAULT_ERRORLOG="logs/error_log"
 -D AP_TYPES_CONFIG_FILE="conf/mime.types"
 -D SERVER_CONFIG_FILE="conf/httpd.conf"

Many thanks in advance for any hints/tips.
Regards,
Chris

A: Redirection could appear in page code, proxy/firewall/checkpoint of any is used, hosts file or DNS server where your domain.com is servered.
HTH
Ivo Stoykov

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


In October this year, the Special Constabulary will celebrate its 175th anniversary. Communities depended on volunteers before there was a fully paid police service and they still rely on them today.
The Government recognises the importance of community-focused policing and is committed to every community having its own neighbourhood policing team. Special constables will be an essential part of these teams. This is an exciting time to be at the cutting edge of policing.
No two days are the same for a special constable and it is not an easy job. However, it can give a great deal of job satisfaction. It covers a whole range of policing duties, from dealing with anti-social behaviour to talking to schools about safety and crime.
One day you might be dealing with a road accident, another evening you might be coping with a closing time scuffle or counselling a victim. One thing is certain. You won't have time to be bored.
You will get a chance to learn new skills and develop existing ones - such as problem solving, negotiation and dealing with people. There will be plenty of support to make sure you don't feel out of your depth.
Most Specials say their training and the experience gained through being a special has helped them in their full-time jobs. No surprise really, as the police provide extensive structured training before you even start the job.
The training covers a number of different areas, such as witness interrogation or preparing evidence for court.
Some forces have several grades within the Specials and you can be promoted if you perform well and prove your leadership qualities.
Men and women from any background can apply to become a special constable. You don't need to have formal qualifications and you won't have to pass an exam. What you will need is common sense and enthusiasm.
As a special constable, you will learn more about human nature than most people will ever get to experience. You'll be part of a professional elite team, playing a crucial role in fighting crime in your community.
What other job gives you the chance to feel proud of your contribution to your community and to the police service?
INFORMATION: Contact your local police force to find out more. Or you could take a look at the website: www.policecouldyou.co.uk/specialconstable or call the national call centre on 0845 608 3000.


text:
Li Gao or Li Hao (; 351–417), courtesy name Xuansheng (), nickname Changsheng (), formally Prince Wuzhao of (Western) Liang (), was the founding duke of the Han Chinese state Western Liang.  (While he claimed only the title of duke during his reign, he was posthumously honored with the princely title.)  He was initially a Northern Liang official, but in 400, he seceded from Northern Liang's prince Duan Ye's rule and established his own independent state.  His state only lasted for 21 years, but his descendants would remain key officials and nobles throughout Northern Wei, Western Wei, Northern Zhou, and Sui dynasty, and one of them, Li Yuan, would found the Tang dynasty in 618.  After the founding of the Tang dynasty, he was posthumously honored as Emperor Xingsheng ().

Prior to Western Liang's establishment
Li Gao was born in 351, and was a posthumous child of his father Li Chang (), who traced his ancestry to the Han dynasty general Li Guang.  After Li Chang's death, Li Gao's mother married a man named Song, and she bore him at least one son, Song Yao ().  In Li Gao's youth, he was known to be studious, rational, and open-minded.  When he grew older, he also studied the military strategies of Sunzi and Wu Qi.  He had, for a time, lived in the same house with his half-brother Song Yao and Guo Nen (), a minister of Later Liang's founding emperor Lü Guang known for his magical and prophetic abilities.  Guo once told Song, "Your place will be among the most honored of all subjects, but Mr. Li will one day found an independent state.  This will happen when a mare bears a pony with a white forehead."

After Lü Guang's official Duan Ye, with support from the generals Juqu Nancheng () and Juqu Mengxun, broke away from Later Liang and established Northern Liang in 397, Li Gao became a county magistrate under Duan Ye's governor of Dunhuang Commandery (roughly modern Dunhuang, Gansu), Meng Min ().  When Meng died in 400, the officials of Dunhuang Commandery, because Li Gao was popular with the people, asked him to take over.  Initially, Li Gao was hesitant, but Song advised him to accept, stating to him that a pony with a white forehead had just recently been born.  Li Gao therefore accepted and requested confirmation from Duan Ye, and Duan Ye agreed.

However, Duan Ye's official Suo Si (), a friend of Li Gao's, warned Duan Ye of Li Gao's ambitions and advised Duan Ye not to allow Li Gao to remain in control of Dunhuang.  Duan Ye therefore sent Suo Si to take over Li Gao's post.  Li Gao, in fear, initially was going to receive Suo and turn over authorities to him.  At the urging of Song and Zhang Miao (), however, Li Gao first sent messengers to flatter Suo, and instead made a surprise against Suo, defeating him and forcing him to flee back to the Northern Liang capital Zhangye (張掖, in modern Zhangye, Gansu).  Li Gao, angry at what he saw as Suo's betrayal, then sent messengers to Duan Ye demanding that he execute Suo.  Juqu Nancheng, who also disliked Suo, advised Duan Ye to execute Suo to pacify Li, and Duan Ye did so.

Later in 400, Li Gao's subordinate Tang Yao () declared a general secession by the six commanderies around Dunhuang and offered the rulership to Li Gao.  Li Gao accepted and took the title of Duke of Liang, thus establishing Western Liang.

Early reign
Li Gao set his capital at Dunhuang.  In 401, the important Northern Liang city Jiuquan (酒泉, in modern Jiuquan, Gansu) defected to him, and particularly in light of Later Qin's attacks on Later Liang that year, this caused Juqu Mengxun (who had killed Duan Ye earlier that year and taken over as the ruler of Northern Liang) to consider surrendering his state to Later Qin, although Juqu Mengxun later decided against it and continued his state's existence.  In light of Later Qin's advances, however, Li Gao nominally submitted to Later Qin as a vassal.

In 404, Li Gao's heir apparent Li Tan () died, and he created Li Tan's younger brother Li Xin as the new heir apparent.

In 405, Li Gao claimed additional honorific titles, and at the same time, while not renouncing Later Qin, also sent messengers to Jin, requesting to be a vassal.  He also moved his capital from Dunhuang to Jiuquan, closer to the Northern Liang capital Zhangye, to put additional pressure on Northern Liang.  He also wrote a letter to all of his sons, which is still extant, encouraging them to be open-minded and think logically, and be mild in temperament.

In 406, Li Gao entered into a peace agreement with Southern Liang's prince Tufa Rutan, with an implicit understanding of an alliance against Northern Liang, but no actual joint military action was ever taken.  Later that year, Juqu Mengxun made an attack on Jiuquan, and Li Gao suffered a defeat to Juqu Mengxun near Jiuquan and was forced to return to the city to defend it against a siege, but Juqu Mengxun, not having enough strength to siege it, withdrew.

Late reign
In 408, not having received response from Jin when he sent messengers in 405, Li Gao sent another messenger with his petition to the Jin capital Jiankang (建康, modern Nanjing, Jiangsu).

In 410, Juqu Mengxun attacked Western Liang again and defeated Li Gao's heir apparent Li Xin in battle, capturing the general Zhu Yuanhu ().  Li Gao ransomed Zhu with silver and gold, and Juqu Mengxun returned Zhu and made peace with Li Gao.

In 411, Juqu Mengxun, despite the prior peace agreement, made a surprise attack on Western Liang.  Li Gao guarded his capital and refused to engage Juqu Mengxun, who was then forced to withdraw when his army ran out of food supply.  Li Gao then sent Li Xin to attack the Northern Liang troops in retreat, and Li Xin had a major victory over Juqu Mengxun, capturing his general Juqu Bainian ().

In 416, Li Gao's subordinate Suo Chengming () suggested that he attack Northern Liang.  Li Gao summoned Suo and explained to him that he had insufficient strength to do so—and that Suo, if he actually had usable plans, should offer them rather than simply suggesting an attack.  In fear and shame, Suo withdrew from his presence.

In 417, Li Gao grew ill, and he entrusted Li Xin to his brother Song Yao, stating, "After I die, the heir apparent is your son.  Please discipline him accordingly."  He then died, and Li Xin succeeded him as duke.  Although Li Gao only claimed a ducal title, he was posthumously honored as a prince.

Personal information
 Father
 Li Chang () (d. 350 or 351), posthumously honored as Duke Jian
 Wives
 First wife, name unknown
 Lady Yin, mother of Li Xin
 Children
 Li Tan (), the Heir Apparent (d. 404)
 Li Xin (), the Heir Apparent (created 404), later duke
 Li Rang (), Marquess Mu of Xinxiang
 Li Xun (), later ruler
 Li Fan ()
 Li Yu ()
 Li Hong ()
 Li Tiao ()
 Li Liang ()
 Li Jingshou () (d. 437), wife of Juqu Mujian, prince of Northern Liang

References

 Book of Jin, vol. 87.
 Book of Wei, vol. 99.
 Spring and Autumn Annals of the Sixteen Kingdoms, vol. 8.
 Zizhi Tongjian, vols. 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118.

Western Liang (Sixteen Kingdoms) dukes
351 births
417 deaths
Northern Liang people
Later Qin generals
Jin dynasty (266–420) people
Tang dynasty
Generals from Gansu
Founding monarchs

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With all of the Riva hype, I had to get the dupe! I actually have not worn blue nail polish in years but I love this color!!
Since I'm not used to seeing it on myself, I figured a konad in brown would help me ease into the baby blue.
The image plate is a bundle monster plate and I used my new Revlon Expresso since I love the brown color with the silver micro glitter it has!
Should I get the Chanel Riva afterall? I think now I just have to.
This entry was posted in general polish yumminess, konad and tagged blue, brown, expresso, hard candy, konad, nail polish, revlon, sky on February 9, 2011 by hollyshimmerspark.


text:
Gigantic Release Date: November 25, 2020
Walt Disney's animated movie Gigantic is based on Jack and the Beanstalk.
Set in Spain during the Age of Exploration, Gigantic tells the story of young Jack, who discovers a world full of giants, who are hidden in the clouds. Surprisingly, Jack befriends an eleven year old giant, whose name is Imma, and together they try to stop the Storm Giants from ruling the Giant Kingdom, and the human world.
Stay tuned for casting news, trailer, poster and more.
Directed By: Nathan Greno
Studio: Disney
MPAA Rating PG
Interested in Gigantic? Check out these films
The Woman King
Inspired by true events that took place in the Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries, The Woman...
A Naked Singularity
A Naked Singularity is based on Sergio De La Pava's debut novel, which centers on a successful New York public defender whose life begins to unrave...
The Great High School Imposter
Based on a Daniel Riley GQ Magazine article published in 2018, The Great High School Imposter focuses on Artur Samarin, a young Ukranian man who pos...
Set in a UK coastal town in the 1820s, Ammonite follows Mary Anning (Kate Winslet) and a young woman (Saoirse Ronan) sent to convalesce by the sea dev...
In the movie Jane, when well-trained and well-financed professional poachers begin to target a conservationist ranch in Tanzania, it falls on one woma...
WAM has been your source for accurate theatrical release dates, entertainment news, posters & photos, free screenings, trailers, reviews and DVD release dates since 2004. Copyright 2004-2019. WAM. All right reserved.

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MANILA (UCAN): The Manila archdiocese has officially opened the process for the beatification and canonisation of Father George Willman, a Jesuit from the United States of America (US), who is credited with building up the presence of the Knights of Columbus in The Philippines during the last century.
HONG KONG (SE): What do migrants and elephants have in common? Well, apart from sharing December 18 as a day to draw attention to their situation, both are regarded as beasts of burden and both are threatened species, as they face constant hazards.
MANILA (UCAN): Some 300 children from the sprawling slum areas of Manila marched to the beat of Christmas carols in a reenactment of the search made by Joseph and Mary to find shelter prior to the birth of Jesus on December 18.
BERLIN (Agencies): Pope Francis has been named the 2016 recipient of the International Charlemagne Prize for bringing a message of hope and encouragement to Europe at a time of uncertainty, The Associated Press reported.
VATICAN (SE): "Let us open our hearts to receive the grace of this day, which is Christ himself," Pope Francis said in the traditional Urbi et Orbi (To the City and the World) papal Christmas blessing, delivered from the central balcony of St. Peter's Basilica in Rome at midday on Christmas Day.
COTABATO (UCAN): Seven farmers were slaughtered on Christmas Eve in Sultan Kudarat province, Maguindanao, during what the military described as coordinated attacks on small communities.
The Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, a group that had declared an alliance with the Islamic State, claimed responsibility for the attacks.
FLORENCE (SE): Pope Francis received a meal coupon and a plastic plate from the staff at the Caritas St. Francis Soup Kitchen in Florence, Italy, as he left the cathedral of Santa Maria del Fiore after speaking to 2,500 delegates at a gathering sponsored by the Italian Bishops' Conference on what he called practical Christian humanism on November 10 last year.


Fabric and floss kit for the vintage Have Yourself a Merry Christmas Pillow form Bareroots pattern #237 Little Christmas Pillows. Kit includes all fabrics, floss and tinsel needed for this project. Pillow size approx. 8in x 8in. Pattern not included.
This item begins shipping December 17, 2018.


Malcolm was a college student in Clapham.
A teenager has been arrested today (November 7) on suspicion of murdering Malcolm Mide-Madariola in Clapham South.
This is the third arrest police have made in connection with the murder of the 17-year-old college student, who was stabbed outside Clapham South Tube Station.
Police arrested the 18-year-old today and he remains in custody. Earlier this week, another 18-year-old was arrested on suspicion of murder and has been bailed until a date in late November. A 17-year-old was charged with murder today and is due to appear at the Old Bailey on November 9.
He is due to appear at the Old Bailey on November 9. Malcolm died in hospital after being found stabbed in Balham Hill, near to Clapham South underground station on the afternoon of Friday, 2 November.