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Dwayne Haskins fines $ 40,000 by Washington Football Team, no longer captain
December 23, 2020 08:50 by NewsDesk
ASHBURN, Va. The Washington Football Team fined quarterback Dwayne Haskins $ 40,000 and removed him from the role of team captain three days after he was photographed at an event with strippers while not wearing a mask.
But there is still a chance he will continue to start for Washington (6-8), which hosts the Carolina Panthers (4-10) on Sunday. Alex Smith did not practice because of his strained right calf, which limited him to play catch while his teammates stretched.
Haskins apologized to his teammates and was left with taking starter representatives during their practice.
Washington also provided reps for backups Taylor Heinicke and Steven Montez, who were both active last week with the Smith sideline.
On Sunday, Haskins attended his girlfriend's birthday party at a hotel where strippers were present. It was the second time he violated COVID-19 protocols this season. Earlier this year, he booked a family friend at the team hotel the night before a game in the New York Giants.
"I know I should not have put my team in danger," Haskins said.
Haskins, who like his teammates have been tested daily, must practice with a mask and a face mask with a special shield. He will attend meetings via conference call.
Haskins said it was difficult to address the situation publicly.
"When you destroy, you have to be able to admit it," he said. "That was what I had to do."
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Tags captain, Dwayne, Dwayne Haskins Jr., fines, football, Haskins, longer, news, NFL, team, Washington
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Samuel ben Hayyim Vital (1598 – 1677) was a Kabalist born in Damascus in the latter half of the sixteenth century.  While still young he married a daughter of Isaiah Pinto, rabbi of Damascus. Poverty compelled him to emigrate to Egypt, where, through the influence of prominent men, he was placed in charge of the cabalistic society Tiḳḳune ha-Teshubah. After a brief residence there he went to Safed, where he instructed the physician Jacob Zemah in Kabala. In the middle of the 17th century he returned to Egypt, where he died.

Samuel Vital was the author of both cabalistic and rabbinical works. Among the former may be noted the Shemonah She'arim, an introduction to the Cabala, later embodied in the Eẓ Ḥayyim (Zolkiev, 1772; Korzec, 1785). Among his unpublished writings mention may be made of his Sefer Toẓe'ot Ḥayyim, a commentary on the Bible, and his Sefer Ta'alumot Ḥokmah, on the Cabala.

Jewish Encyclopedia bibliography
Moritz Steinschneider, Cat. Bodl. cols. 834–835, 2495;
David Conforte, Ḳore ha-Dorot, pp. 40b, 42a, 49b;
Azulai, Shem ha-Gedolim;
Giovanni Bernardo De Rossi, Dizionario
Kohn (Kahana), Eben Negef, Vienna, 1874;
Fuenn, Keneset Yisrael;
Benjacob, Oẓar ha-Sefarim;
Julius Fürst, Bibl. Jud. iii. 479–482.

References

People from Damascus
Kabbalists
Egyptian Sephardi Jews
Sephardi Jews in Ottoman Syria
Bible commentators
17th-century rabbis from the Ottoman Empire
1598 births
1677 deaths
Rabbis in Safed

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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The Texas Brahmas of the NA3HL are proud to announce that forward Vincent Dekumbis has committed to play NCAA Division III hockey at Lawrence University.
Dekumbis, a 5'11/185 lbs. native of Firbourg, Switzerland, played in the NA3HL with the Brahmas for two seasons, which also included a call up to the NAHL's Lone Star Brahmas for eight games.
Dekumbus, 20, has been in talks with Lawrence since the December Showcase, however, he had to wait until he finished high school in the United States to announce his commitment. He played in 73 games for Texas in the NA3HL and recorded 29 goals and 57 assists for 86 points.
Newly hired assistant with the Aberdeen Wings in the NAHL and Vincent's coach for the Brahmas, Michael Hill, said, "Vincent is a special player. He was highly admired by his teammates and a leader in the locker room. He plays with high energy, see the ice very well and finishes plays."
With Vincent's commitment to Lawrence, the 2017-18 Texas Brahmas now have a total of eight NCAA commitments, including all the aged out 1997 birth year players and three ACHA commitments marking their highest number of commitments for any given year in team history.


Noland Travels: We bought a car!
Hey guys, sweet ride you have there. I am a little jealous and thought it would be ok if you could go ahead and ship me the 1996 Vauxhall in return I will be glad to give you the Vette. As long as Dad doesn't mind. See you soon!


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Research assistance was provided by Amanda See.
Summer is usually the time of year that allows investors to take a step back and reflect on some of the key long-term trends in our business. However, with Brexit, speculation of helicopter money in Japan, and another punk U.S. GDP reading in 2Q16, it certainly has felt like anything but vacation time for many in the investment community. That's the bad news.
Interest Rate Outlook: Lower for Longer Continues to Drive the Yearn for Yield and Growth Without question, we remain in the lower for longer camp regarding rates. Importantly, recent events across Asia and Europe, Brexit in particular, only give us further confidence in our outlook. We also think that it is critical for investors to understand that the Federal Reserve in the U.S. may be signaling that it is now actually at an already modestly accommodative stance, despite rates at a record low and the Fed's balance sheet at a record high. If we are right, then the traditional neutral level for the Fed Funds rate could be significantly lower than many economists now think. Not surprisingly, against this backdrop, we remain overweight both Opportunistic Liquid Credit and Private Credit, including Direct Lending and Mezzanine/Asset Based Lending. We also favor Real Assets that can produce both Yield and Growth, including Real Estate, Real Estate Credit, and Infrastructure assets such as pipelines, and are three hundred basis points overweight the asset class. One can see our preferences in Exhibit 9.
Chinese GDP Growth Is Still Slowing; a New Playbook Is Required for Global Trade Despite temporary periods of economic reacceleration, we believe that China is structurally slowing. Embedded in this view is our cautious outlook for global trade, particularly as it relates to traditional Chinese imports. On the export side, our research shows that China is making huge inroads into higher value-added exports (Exhibit 25); this transition is a big deal and warrants investor attention for both offensive and defensive reasons in sectors such as telecommunications equipment, healthcare equipment, and optical equipment. At the same time, China appears to be flooding certain global markets with excess capacity in low value-added exports. If we are right, then it is too early to bottom fish in several cyclical industries, particularly those with excess capacity, unless valuations are extremely compelling. We also see additional margin headwinds in industries previously dominated by U.S. and European multinationals. By comparison, we think that there are increasing opportunities to partner with Chinese firms as they expand abroad. Details below.
Post-Brexit, the Upward Revaluation of Domestic-Facing, Consumer-Oriented Economies Is Coming In a post-Brexit environment, we expect an upward revaluation of countries that have large domestic-oriented consumer economies, particularly relative to trade-oriented economies that rely more on exports to grow. The United States is clearly the most obvious beneficiary, given its economy's absolute size as well as the health of its consumers. However, we also anticipate India, Indonesia, and Mexico to be major beneficiaries of this change in investor perception. If we are right, then valuations in these countries could actually hold or even increase from current levels in certain instances.
The Ongoing Dismantling of Levered Financial Services Intermediaries Our travels across Europe, the U.S., and parts of Asia lead us to believe that the trend towards traditional financial services companies becoming more "utility-like" is ongoing, given the move towards low/negative rates by central banks as well as the desire by governments for significantly heightened regulation. Somewhat ironically, one outcome of these headwinds across traditional financial services is that credit creation will actually be harder to stimulate, which means central banks will likely have to continue to overcompensate with even more aggressive monetary policy initiatives. The other consequence of the current financial services backdrop is that more and more complex transactions will move into the non-bank market, which could provide significant opportunities for investors to step in and serve as important providers of liquidity.
Buy Complexity, Sell Simplicity Given today's increasingly bifurcated market (one that feels similar to what we saw in 1999/2000 when tech and telecomunications stocks traded expensively at the same time cyclical stocks traded cheaply), we want to move capital to take advantage of the arbitrage we now see between complexity and simplicity. Indeed, despite record highs in the S&P 500, we are increasingly finding attractively complex stories that the market does not like because of limited earnings visibility, increased volatility, and/or cyclically out of favor offerings (Exhibit 41). For our nickel, we think that — with some value-added restructuring, repositioning, and/or "tuck-in" acquisitions — there is a significant opportunity today to dramatically boost valuation by merely improving a company's earnings visibility, something that the market desperately craves in today's low rate, slow growth world. On the other hand, it also feels to us that investors are now willing to potentially overpay for earnings visibility and/or yield. Indeed, with simplicity of story being so "hot" right now, we believe opportunities exist across the corporate and real asset sectors to carve out and monetize distinct earnings streams that are trading at what we believe are premium valuations relative to their long-term intrinsic value.
Four key asset classes include: Global Private Equity, U.S. Treasuries, Global Listed Equities and U.S. High Yield. Data as at December 31, 2015. Source: Bloomberg.
Data as at August 12, 2016. Source: KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation.
e = KKR GMAA estimates. Data as at May 13, 2016. Source: Bloomberg, Cambridge Associates, NCREIF, HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation.
To be sure, we think that the one-two punch of monetary and fiscal stimulus can help to mitigate some of the aforementioned macro headwinds, including the slowdown in nominal GDP, in the near term. However, what we believe is really needed to sustain an improvement in the outlook for absolute growth and returns, particularly in the developed world, is a reacceleration in long-term productivity trends. Unfortunately, as Exhibits 5 and 6 illustrate, productivity has been consistently declining this cycle. Given that productivity is one of the two key inputs to GDP growth (with labor force growth as the other one, and we do not currently see any major positive changes to immigration policy), recent trends are quite concerning, in our view.
Note: Real GDP growth equals labor force growth times productivity growth. Data as at April 12, 2016. Source: IMF, UN, Haver Analytics.
Data as at June 30, 2016.Source: Deloitte LLP, Haver Analytics.
Data as at July 31, 2016. Source: Bloomberg, "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at www.PolicyUncertainty.com.
Beyond the need for a notable improvement in productivity, we also think some clarity around the global political landscape is now required too. Unfortunately, however, we do not see an imminent improvement in this area. For starters, we are still poised to have a divisive election in the United States; maybe more important, though, is that we also face surprisingly murky electoral outlooks across Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and France during the next 12-18 months. In each of these markets, protectionism, anti-immigration, and populism will likely feature prominently, we believe. Finally, we face increasing global uncertainty from the emergence of "strong men" leaders such as Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Importantly, all these games of political chess are occurring at a time of notable instability across the Middle East.
In our view, it is the unusual — and sometimes unsettling intersection of all these macroeconomic and geopolitical forces — that still keeps us in an environment that we refer to as Adult Swim Only. As such, we continue to favor an asset allocation that rewards yield, embraces volatility, and tilts more idiosyncratic in nature at this point in the cycle. To this end, our most significant overweight positions include Private Credit, Opportunistic Liquid Credit, and select parts of Real Assets. One can see this in Exhibit 9.
Please note that as of December 31, 2015 we have recalibrated Asia Public Equities as All Asia ex-Japan and Japan Public Equities. Strategy benchmark is the typical allocation of a large U.S. pension plan. Data as at July 31, 2016. Source: KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation (GMAA).
If we are wrong in our outlook and growth reaccelerates more than expected, we think that returns across risk assets will ultimately be capped. Key to our thinking is that sustained stronger global growth would turn central bankers more hawkish (or at least less dovish), which likely would not be good for the global capital markets, currencies and rates in particular. As such, our base case remains a volatile backdrop that never fully favors the bulls or the bears, lending support to our base view that the global economy — and the capital markets that support it — remains in an asynchronous recovery.
In the following section we provide both further analyses on the key macro themes mentioned above as well as what we believe to be the key investment implications.
Since we arrived at KKR in 2011, we have been pushing our Brave New World thesis (see Brave New World: The Yearning for Yield Across Asset Classes, December 2011), which we originally developed during our time at Morgan Stanley in macro strategy during the 2004-2007 period. Our basic premise has been — and remains — that secular macro forces, disinflation and demographics in particular, would ultimately drive an upward revaluation of securities that could provide investors with both yield and earnings growth. Put another way, the cash flow required to grow the dividend needs to be regenerative in nature, as we think that investors would ultimately shun levered entities that just squeeze yield out of a declining stream of cash from operations.
To be sure, one has to be more selective at this stage in the cycle (including buying complexity), but our base view remains that technical forces are likely to win out over fundamentals in the near term, given that central bank buying is now overwhelming supply. One can see this in Exhibit 10, which shows that net issuance minus quantitative easing (QE) has actually shrunk to negative $300+ billion, compared to positive net issuance less QE of $1.1 trillion in 2011.
G4 equals U.S., Japan, U.K., Euro (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Portugal). QE = quantitative easing. Data as at July 23, 2016. Source: National Treasuries, Morgan Stanley Research.
Data as at July 19, 2016. Source: Bloomberg. Universe: Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index.
Importantly, we believe these statistics are likely to be revised downward (i.e., more shrinkage) following the Bank of England's recent announcement on August 4, 2016 (BoE will be buying ₤60 billion additional gilts as well as ₤10 billion of corporate bonds). Also, we expect the European Central Bank to initiate some additional easing measures on September 8th, 2016; at the same time, we look for intensifying efforts from the Bank of Japan to buy both equity and fixed income products.
Beyond the aforementioned quantitative easing, there is another influence that shapes our view on our lower for longer thesis regarding rates. Specifically, despite a lot of the recent banter in the press surrounding the potential for higher rates, we are increasingly of the mindset that the Federal Reserve is closer to the real neutral rate through the cycle than many investors may now think. One proxy to measure this viewpoint is the Atlanta Fed, which shows that something akin to 75-85 basis points is where the neutral rate may be. One can see this in Exhibit 12.
We also believe that the Fed is sending important signals about how long and how low short-term rates may stay. At the June 2016 FOMC press conference, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen succinctly said that "there are long-lasting, more persistent factors that may be at work that are holding down the longer-run level of neutral rates." She followed up by indicating that "It could stay low for a prolonged time... All of us are in a process of constantly reevaluating where the neutral rate is going, and what you see is a downward shift over time, that more of what is causing this to be low are factors that will not be disappearing." Not surprisingly, given all these types of remarks as well as sluggish growth, the Fed Funds rate is now below one percent, and we think it will stay there over most of the time through 2020. One can see this in Exhibit 13.
Note: Unlike the observed federal funds rate, the shadow rate does not have a zero lower bound because it accounts for other monetary policy tools beyond rate cuts. Data as at July 31, 2016. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, National Bureau of Economic Research, Haver Analytics.
Data as at August 10, 2016. Source: Federal Reserve Board, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis.
Against this backdrop, we think that the asset allocation implications of our thesis are quite significant for long-term investors. Specifically, we think that the opportunity for a traditional 60/40 equity/bond strategy to achieve a seven or eight percent return for its constituents is now quite limited. Indeed, if bond yields stay flat or increase from current levels, then public equities would have to return 10% or more per annum for most allocators of capital to meet their hurdle rates, a feat we see as highly unlikely after seven straight up years in the S&P 500 (Exhibit 15). Importantly, as we outlined in Exhibit 4, which details our forward looking expected returns for the major asset classes we track, our fundamental work suggests an annual total return of around six percent for stocks (including dividend yields), while we have an even more modest total return for bonds (i.e., essentially flat).
Data as at July 2016. Source: Shiller data http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm, Thomson Financial, S&P, Factset, Haver Analytics.
Data as at December 31, 2015. Source: Standard & Poor's, Shiller data.
Data as at December 31, 2015. CPI adjusted returns. Source: Bloomberg, Factset, S&P, Shiller data.
Given this outlook, our strong belief is that there will be a meaningful shift in allocation strategies by certain pensions, endowments, and even individual investors. For our nickel, we think that most major allocators of capital will likely shift from a diversified cross-asset strategy (including both active and passive) towards more of a barbell one that includes: 1) active, idiosyncratic managers that can truly deliver either alpha and/or operate in a market of higher returns relative to traditional liquid assets; and 2) extremely low-cost index funds that maximize beta exposure with limited tracking error. If we are right, then tolerance for performance mediocrity, particularly for liquid products with periodic drawdowns of significance, will become quite limited.
On the other hand, we think that the opportunity set for certain managers, particularly in private credit, is large and growing. Indeed, in an environment where the risk-free rate is near zero in real terms and between one and two percent in nominal terms, the opportunity to pick up three percent via an illiquidity premium (Exhibit 17), particularly if there is sound credit underwriting, is quite attractive, in our view, against a traditional seven to eight percent hurdle rate. Private equity too should benefit in both developed and emerging markets. Within the public equity markets, we are finally beginning to see more value in EM markets than DM markets. One can see the basis for our argument in Exhibit 18 which shows that some mean reversion might be likely after 70 consecutive months of EM under-performance.
Data as at June 30, 2016. Source: Bloomberg, Ares company filings, KKR Credit.
Data as at July 31, 2016. Source: KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis.
Anybody who has had the opportunity to read our Insights papers in recent years knows that we feel strongly that China has endured a distinctly hard landing when it comes to nominal GDP growth. Indeed, one can see the severity of the trend in Exhibit 20, which shows that nominal GDP has actually fallen over 12 percentage points since 2Q11, compared to "just" the 3.3 percentage point decline that many sell-side forecasts use when describing real GDP during the same period. A decline of such magnitude in nominal terms is a big deal. In particular, from the perspective of an owner and operator of businesses, nominal — not real — is what matters because the revenues that cover overhead, pay employees, and hopefully generate a profit for investors are measured in nominal, not real terms.
Data as at March 31, 2016. Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis.
That China's overall growth at this point is slowing is certainly not "new" news to investors, we fully acknowledge. What we believe may not be fully understood are all the long-term consequences and long-term nature of this slowdown. We see several important ones to consider. First, as we show in Exhibit 19, global trade is slowing as China downshifts. To be sure, some of this reduction is linked to lower commodity prices, but there is another factor to consider. From what we can tell (and our data shows), China is also insourcing more of its production of intermediate goods, which means it now relies less on ships, planes, and content from its traditional trading partners. One can see the magnitude of this shift in Exhibit 21.
Data as at March 31, 2016. Source: Source: IMF, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Haver Analytics.
Data as at June 30, 2016. Source: China Customs, Haver Analytics.
Even within its import sector, China is importing less traditional goods and services. Indeed, as Exhibit 22 shows, investment-related imports have fallen to 60% in June 2016 from a peak of 67% in October 2008. On the other hand, consumer-related imports have jumped to 40% from 33% over the same period. We look for both trends to gain momentum in the quarters ahead.
Data as at July 31, 2016. Source: China Customs, Haver Analytics.
Data as at December 31, 2015. Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Haver Analytics.
In terms of investment implications, there are several things to consider, in our view. First, we generally think that much of the commodity complex linked to China's aggressive build-out during the last decade is likely to remain under pressure. Key commodities to potentially avoid, in our view, include iron ore, steel, and coal, all of which we still expect to trade flat to down in the coming quarters. Consistent with this view, we also think that many of China's traditional trading partners, particularly those with an old economy interface, are not as well positioned to benefit from the country's shift towards more consumer-oriented imports. This shift in focus by the Chinese is a big deal, in our view, and it will likely put additional pressure on much of South East Asia's existing export product suite.
There are also unanticipated knock-on effects. For example, given the slowdown in China's exports as well as the shift in its import mix, we remain leery that excess capacity in over-built areas such as ships and logistics may not snap back as quickly as the consensus now thinks. Separately, as China moves up the value chain in terms of value-added offerings (Exhibit 25), it is likely to increase competition, denting margins of well-known incumbents in key markets like the U.S. and Europe. If we are right, then shareholder returns for publicly traded companies in certain key markets could be at risk, we believe.
Data as at December 31, 2015. Source: UNCTAD, Haver Analytics.
Given this backdrop, we think that an opportunity on the positive side of the ledger, particularly for global private equity firms and certain multinationals, is to partner with Chinese companies looking to expand abroad. In many instances, European and U.S. firms can provide local knowledge about consumer behavior, help to overcome regulatory hurdles, and teach operational best practices. Chinese firms will also need help with mergers and acquisitions, which should drive incremental need for local strategic advice, financings, and management talent.
While many investors are focused on the negative long-term ramifications of Brexit, including slower global trade, less tolerance around immigration, and growing social/economic discord, we see an important silver lining. Specifically, we think that there will be a notable upward revaluation opportunity in the economies of countries with large domestic markets that are less affected by many of the aforementioned macroeconomic concerns. Key to our thinking is that investors increasingly do not want to be dependent on economies that are overly reliant on global connectivity (i.e., trade and/or flows) to deliver growth. Said differently, after the boom in globalization that we have seen over the past 20-30 years, we now think that intensifying geopolitics and macroeconomic concerns may lower the risk premium for countries that do not have to depend on outside forces to sustain their current way of living.
U.S. housing is still well below trend See below for details, but we continue to think that U.S. residential construction is one of the least cyclically extended areas of the global economy. Just consider that we estimate that residential construction is currently near a historic low of just 55% of structural demand. By comparison, we estimate that construction activity was running at 116% and 115% of true structural demand in 1986 and 2005, respectively (which were the big housing busts). As such, we retain the bullish outlook we laid out on the housing sector and its subcomponents dating back to U.S. Housing: A Changing Dynamic, March 2012.
The U.S. consumer is in much better shape From our vantage point, it appears that the U.S. consumer has been acting — well — very "un-American" during the current expansion. Indeed, 86 months into a recovery, savings rates are going up, not down; at the same time, consumption of basic consumables is running well below trend7. Also, given low rates and improving net worth, debt service burdens have actually reached historic lows. However, the consumer is spending, but as we detail below, investors should focus more on businesses that can deliver value-added experiences to the consumer.
U.S. corporate profits are not so far above trend relative to prior cycles After essentially no earnings growth during the last 36 months in the U.S., it is abundantly clear we have not had the typical broad-based earnings recovery that defines the average cycle. In fact, earnings growth for the S&P 500 has delivered just a 2.6% CAGR in EPS since 2009, compared to a solid 15% during the prior cycle8. To be sure, margins are now high across several sectors, but earnings relative to nominal GDP suggest less of a shock than what investors endured in the 1987 and 2007 downturns.
We have already experienced a manufacturing/trade recession in the United States With China's notable slowing reverberating across Asia as well as the oil "bust" in the U.S., many parts of the manufacturing sector have already experienced peak to trough declines in their businesses. To be sure, manufacturing does not hold the same influence in the U.S. the way it did in the past, but it is still an important part of the U.S. economy. Moreover, until recently the energy industry and its related sectors were key drivers of U.S. capital expenditures. Specifically, we estimate that roughly 15% of total U.S. investment growth from 2011 to 2014 was related to the shale revolution9. Today, by comparison, rig count in the U.S. is now just 408, compared to a peak of 1,608 in October 2014, supporting our view that an important part of the U.S. manufacturing/commodity sector has already experienced a major boom-to-bust cycle.
Data as at July 26, 2016. Source: IMF, Haver Analytics.
Data as at July 31, 2016. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics.
Data as at July 19, 2016. Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis.
e = KKR GMAA estimate. Data as at July 19, 2016. Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis.
Data as at July 31, 2016. Average since January 2006. Shaded area represents +/- one standard deviation. Source: Bloomberg.
If we are correct in the notable change in investment perception that we are forecasting, then the long-term implications are significant. Specifically, large, consumer-oriented countries could see their valuation multiples stay at the high end of their historical ranges — or even increase further — as global investors reallocate towards more stable, consumer-oriented economies. Under this outcome (which we think likely), multiples are not likely to contract quite as much during recessions, which mean trough multiples could be higher than in the past (Exhibit 31).
In our view, another point to consider is that strategic buyers are likely to deploy more capital into these economies, which means cross-border M&A could accelerate further. Importantly, we expect to see both private and strategic capital intensify their focus on these countries. Finally, with a backdrop of a more dovish Fed, local currencies and bond yields in these economies are likely to remain well bid, which should help with cost of capital decisions, particularly those linked to refinancing opportunities.
Beyond negative rates, we also note that reregulation has become a major negative headwind for banks in two ways. First, as we show in Exhibit 34, banks have paid out nearly 14% of their equity in fines since 2009. In addition, banks are increasingly being forced to hold huge sums of money against their positions, which all but ensures an inability to earn their costs of capital. One can see this in Exhibit 35.
Data as at May 16, 2016. Source: Company documents, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2016 CCAR Preview.
Data as at July 30, 2016. Source: Bloomberg.
Without question, we are all living in an unusual time when a bank's cost of capital is actually rising as its leverage profile is declining. As a result, today banks can only issue dilutive equity (i.e., below book value, as shown in Exhibit 37), which ensures that they may not be able to create the necessary equity buffer required to sustain a cyclical downturn in credit quality.
For investors, we think that the most actionable opportunity is to participate as a substitute lender where complex transactions are moving off-market. We see this opportunity best presenting itself in the direct lending arena, which often includes mid-market financings, acquisitions, and divestitures. In addition, within the asset-based finance market, we believe there are a growing number of off-market financings now occurring, including first or second lien loans with some form of upside equity participation.
Separately, given that we continue to forecast slow nominal GDP, we think that the potential for non-performing loans to increase, particularly in regions where nominal lending growth is still running well above nominal GDP growth, is significant. If we are right, then distressed credit and restructuring managers in markets ranging from Italy to Greece to China to India should prosper, especially if we are right about a more synchronized global economic slowdown in 2018. Finally, unless central bank strategy shifts in major markets like Japan and Europe, we think that the opportunity for active management across both public and private markets to outperform relative to static benchmarks (the lion's share of which are heavily weighted towards banks) is now quite significant. Implicit in what we are saying is that services-based investments, particularly those that are levered to rising GDP-per-capita, are likely to outperform spread lending institutions in today's low rate world.
Data as at June 30, 2016. Source: Bloomberg.
Data as at August 16, 2016. Source: Bloomberg.
As we mentioned in our mid-year update (see Adult Swim Only: 2016 Mid-year Update, June 2016), we believe that the market is now potentially over-pricing assets with steady cash flows, while under-paying for complexity, particularly around cyclical earnings, conglomerates, and/or busted deals. On the one hand, there are an increasing number of opportunities to monetize cash flows on long-term investments, particularly in areas such as Real Estate, Infrastructure, and Private Equity. Specifically, there have been more and more opportunities to carve out and sell certain long-term leases at low cap rates and use proceeds to essentially de-risk much of the overall real estate investment project. On the other hand, we see forced sellers across the private markets that need capital to avoid downgrades and/or reposition their businesses to compete more effectively. Importantly, this opportunity set is a global one; in fact, we actually believe that there will be more near-term activity surrounding complex situations in Europe and Asia, Japan in particular, than in the United States over the next 12 months. Key to our thinking is that slower growth in Japan and Europe are forcing executives in these regions to think more thoroughly through the strategic value of their existing footprints.
Looking at the big picture, our base view is that a 1998-2000 analogy is a good one to use. In 1998, the Federal Reserve eased, which fueled a concentrated bet into speculative technology and telecom stocks at the same time that many other parts of the market became extremely unloved. Just consider that in the fall of 1998 (right before the China Growth Miracle unfolded), Caterpillar was trading at 9 times depressed earnings, while Deere was trading at 8 times near-trough earnings. At the same time, however Cisco and Microsoft commanded multiples of around 48 times forward earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was trading 21 times, so these technology multiples were over 200% of the market's elevated multiple, while CAT was at 50% of the market's multiple. This was right before the decade that saw CAT's earnings triple11.
Today, we see yield — not high flying technology and telecommunications stocks per se — getting expensive. Just consider that at 1.5%, the 10-year Treasury trades at ~66 times its yield, while U.S. Utility stocks trade at 20 times earnings. A similar revaluation has occurred in the U.S. REIT sector.
While we do expect rates to remain low, we are increasingly of the mindset that investors are starting to overpay for the forward earnings stream of many yield-oriented equity securities. If we are right, investors could — similar to 1999 — end up buying great companies that prove to be less stellar investments because the entry multiple was just too high to provide solid, above average performance.
Data as at August 17, 2016. Source: Bloomberg.
Data as at July 31, 2016. Source: Bloomberg.
Overall, we continue to view the current cycle as the Asynchronous Recovery (see Investment Implications of an Asynchronous Global Recovery, September 2014). Indeed, rising macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions are creating both opportunities and risks for global investors across both equities and fixed income. Our base view is not to shun risk. Rather, we continue to suggest that investors should embrace our key macro themes, many of which we think can perform against a variety of economic backdrops and capital markets environments.
First, as we discussed earlier in this paper, we believe that assets with Yield and Growth will outperform. Strong demographic forces, coupled with low inflation and shrinking supply, lead us to believe that yield assets, particularly those that can compound their cash flows, should do quite well in the environment that we envision. Consistent with this view, we hold overweight positons across Real Assets, including Real Estate, Real Estate Credit, and Infrastructure. We also favor both 'spicy' Liquid and Private Credit.
Second, we would avoid exposures linked to China's structural slowing. From our vantage point, China's slowdown is secular, not cyclical, and we see continued pricing pressure amidst slower activity across not only Asia but parts of Europe and Latin America. That said, we are increasingly of the mindset that there is the opportunity to help Chinese companies expand abroad. Key areas of focus include telecommunications, optical instruments, and electric power machinery.
Third, we see the opportunity for a significant and potentially sustained upward revaluation in the securities of large domestically-oriented economies. Some of this has already occurred, but we think it could go further than some in the investment community now think. The U.S. remains our top choice, though other countries, including India, Mexico, and Indonesia could benefit as well.
Fourth, the dismantling of the traditional financial services opportunity is both a blessing and a curse. On the opportunity side, we believe that non-bank lending will continue to gain share, and by doing so, provide pensions and endowments with the opportunity to earn a yield that often exceeds their current target return rate. In our view, this opportunity is a secular, not a cyclical one, though we do believe that the current illiquidity premium could face some downward cyclical pressure. On the other hand, we do worry that the inability of banks to earn their costs of capital means that their capacity to repair their balance sheets by issuing accretive equity has vanished. This shift in the landscape is important because it means that banks will be forced to rely primarily on retained earnings to deal with cyclical flare-ups in credit quality — not an easy task when net interest margins are shrinking. As a result, total credit creation is likely to remain subpar, which is not a favorable backdrop for helping global GDP rebound towards more normalized levels.
Finally, given the bifurcation across markets, we advise folks to consider increasing exposure to complex stories, including earnings misses, restructurings, and/or corporate repositionings. At the moment, Japan appears to be one of the most actionable markets, though we are also seeing some interesting opportunities in the United States and Europe. Conversely, we think that earnings visibility and simplicity are potentially being overvalued, and as such, our inclination is to harvest existing gains in these areas.
Overall, our message is that the current environment is not likely to change materially in the near term, and as such, pursuing idiosyncratic themes like the five mentioned above is likely to yield better performance results than increasing exposure to beta plays at this point in the cycle. Not surprisingly, this world view leads us to overweight positions across Private Equity, Opportunistic Credit, and Private Credit. By comparison, we fund these positions with underweight positions in Public Equities, Government Bonds, and Growth Equities.
1	KKR GMAA Target Asset Allocation uses a benchmark similar to that of a large U.S. public pension.
2	Data as at August 18, 2016. Source: FT, Desperate investors turn to US junk bond market.
3	Data as at July 31, 2016. Source: Bloomberg.
5	Greater China includes China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Macao. Source: UNCTAD.
6	Data as at June 30, 2016. Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Haver Analytics.
7	Data as at August 31, 2016. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics.
8	Data as at August 24, 2016. Source: Bloomberg.
9	Data based on the growth of investment in oil and oilfield machinery, mining exploration/shafts/wells, and power facilities. Data as at August 22, 2016. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis.
10	Data as at December 31, 2015. Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics.
11	Data as at August 24, 2016. Source: Caterpillar, Cisco, Microsoft company filings, Bloomberg.


text:
NAPNAP PedsCE: Online CE for Pediatric-focused APRNs
NAPNAP Home
TeamPeds Talks
Home » TeamPeds Talks: Conversations on Child...
TeamPeds Talks: Conversations on Child Health Equity - Responding to Food Insecurities: Cross-Sector Interprofessional Collaborations
Responding to Food Insecurities: Cross-Sector Interprofessional Collaborations
TeamPeds Talks will spotlight Child Health Equity in our first Conversations on Child Health series. This series of recorded conversations will reflect the several key issues that make up the underlying factors in the arena of Social Determinants of Health.
A "place-based" organizing framework, reflecting key areas of social determinants of health (SDOH), was developed by Healthy People 2020. Each of these determinant areas reflects a number of key issues that make up the underlying factors in the arena of SDOH.
Each conversation episode is hosted by National Association of Pediatric Nurse Practitioner Executive Board President Jessica Peck, DNP, APRN, CPNP-PC, CNE, CNL, FAANP.
This conversation episode is related to Economic Stability- Food Insecurity.
Dr. Peck is joined by Janine Bruce. Janine Bruce has a Doctorate of Public Health from UC Berkeley's School of Public Health. She currently works at Stanford School of Medicine as Program Director for the Pediatric Advocacy Program and Senior Research Scholar. Her research interests include the health of vulnerable youth populations, food insecurity and community-based participatory research.
IMPORTANT: This continuing education activity is FREE to NAPNAP Members. You must be logged in using your NAPNAP Username and Password to be recognized as a Member of NAPNAP. If you are a current member of NAPNAP, and you are being asked to purchase this activity, please contact the NAPNAP National Office at (877) 662-7627 to request assistance prior to entering any payment information.
Participants are forbidden to reproduce, republish, redistribute, or resell this course in any other form. For copyright-related questions, please email your question to: ce@napnap.org
Copyright 2020 © by National Association of Pediatric Nurse Practitioners
Pediatric advanced practice registered nurses, registered nurses, nurse practitioner students
Recognize the magnitude and impact of food insecurity for children in the United States
Discuss current community, system and policy-level efforts to address child food security
Identify opportunities for health professionals to engage in cross-sector efforts to promote child food security
0.50 Contact hours
Janine Bruce
Guest Biography
Janine Bruce has a Doctorate of Public Health from UC Berkeley's School of Public Health. She currently works at Stanford School of Medicine as Program Director for the Pediatric Advocacy Program and Senior Research Scholar. Her research interests include the health of vulnerable youth populations, food insecurity and community-based participatory research.
Jessica Peck DNP, APRN, CPNP-PC, CNE, CNL, FAANP; President, National Association of Pediatric Nurse Practitioners
Host Biography
Dr. Peck is an expert pediatric clinician, faculty scholar, and anti-trafficking advocate providing innovative, visionary, and award-winning leadership to develop and lead inclusive, diverse interprofessional teams. She has a history of dedicated service to many state and national organizations. As a mother of four, she has special interest in educating and equipping families to promote physical, emotional, mental, social and spiritual health. She is an accomplished author and frequent guest on radio and television. She is the Texas Nurse Practitioner of the Year.
5 Hanover Square

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Q: c# Unable to connect to a member of the replica set matching the read preference Primary Ok I have two nodes setup with a replicaset on a linux server.
In the c# application using 1.8.1.20 driver I have
client = new MongoClient("mongodb://54.244.162.21,54.234.244.182/rs0?connect=replicaset;replicaSet=rs0;slaveOk=true;readPreference=primaryPreferred");

-When I connect with mongo to each node both master and slave the updates and find statements work properly.
-When I try to bring down any node either the primary or secondary I get:
Unable to connect to a member of the replica set matching the read preference Primary
-When both nodes are up I get no error and everything works fine.
-I have tried to change the readPreference to every possible value because I want to see how the redundancy works.
Am I getting something wrong.  I am assuming that you should be able to connect to either one and at least get reads working.  The following code is what I have that the exception occurs on obviously when the connection is first established.
        server = client.GetServer();

        foreach (string db in server.GetDatabaseNames())
        {
            Debug.WriteLine(db);
        }

A: The problem is that some database commands can only run on the primary.  If you issue one while connecting to a replica set which has no primary then you get this error.
The command in this case is server.GetDatabaseNames() - it's possible that it was an oversight that it is not able to run this command on the secondary, but for the moment that is the case.
I'm going to check with the folks who maintain MongoDB drivers and see if this command should be allowed on a secondary or not.
For your example, I think you will find that if your program connected and then issued read queries, then it would work fine.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Family Days
Ladies Days
Racing for Business
Top Trainer & Jockey
Yorkshire Trainers
Buy Season Ticket
The richest ever running of the famous John Smith's Cup raceday will see £385,000 on offer for the 59th staging of a day that contains the famous handicap itself, Saturday 14 July. The £200,000 prize money of the feature contest makes the John Smith's Cup the richest middle distance handicap in Britain.
Named after Britain's best-selling ale, it is the centrepiece of a seven-race programme that now includes the newly upgraded John Smith's Silver Cup as a Group Three contest worth £65,000 and the Listed John Smith's City Walls sprint. In each of the last two years the prize money has risen by nearly £20,000 each season.
The headline contest is the longest continuous commercial sponsorship of a flat race in the country, an arrangement that will now reach at least the Diamond Jubilee of the contest – as the racecourse previously announced a further extension of the deal with Heineken.
With the prospect of hotly contested races matched by the forecast, the decision has been taken to relax the dress code in the County Stand Enclosure for both days. Gentlemen can leave their jackets at home, though a collared shirt and tie is still required.
The opening day on the Friday features the Group Three William Hill Summer Stakes, offering a black type opportunity to the fastest filly down the six furlong course.
One of Europe's most prestigious and competitive middle-distance heritage handicap contests, Saturday's renewal of The John Smith's Cup is contested over the extended one mile and a quarter. The winning owner can look forward to receiving the specially-commissioned Wedgwood challenge trophy.
Fougalle was the first winner of this famous race back in 1960, and since then there have been many dramatic moments, with the race becoming a major betting heat of the summer. In 2017, Ballet Concerto provided trainer Sir Michael Stoute his second success in the race, coming nearly thirty years after Icona landed the spoils in 1989. Jockey, James Doyle, enjoyed a debut win.
One of only two contests to receive such an upgrade, the Group Three John Smith's Silver Cup continues to be a proving ground for stayers, last year, Rare Rhythm, showed his potential for Charlie Appleby in the Godolphin colours before winning at an even higher level in Dubai.
The sprinters have their say in the Listed John Smith's City Walls over five furlongs and the 2016 winner, Marsha, went on to multiple success at Group One level, including the Coolmore Nunthorpe, before going into the record books when she was sold to become a broodmare.
Always one of the big days of the year, this event has become a showcase for 'Yorkshire's Finest', and sees John Smith's treasuring its Yorkshire roots with a full Yorkshire menu of locally-sourced and home-made food. In addition, there will be a number of cask ales available at the racecourse, thanks to collaboration with fellow Yorkshire brewers, Theakston's.
Wider Yorkshire sporting and physical prowess will be on show as the crew and craft of team Row4Victory will be by the Frankel statue; these four fearless friends will be rowing 3,000 nautical miles across the Atlantic, in what is described as the 'World's toughest endurance race'.
The highlight on Friday, The William Hill Summer Stakes, is a Group Three sprint contest over six furlongs for fillies and mares, has seen its purse increase to £65,000. Last year's race was won by Mystic Dawn for Newmarket trainer, David Simcock.
Friday sees a number of other long-standing supporters of the Knavesmire return with both Jigsaw Sports Branding and Acturis back in attendance; alongside the accountancy firm responsible for audit matters at the track, Garbutt + Elliott. Once again, it is an "ITM Friday" as the Irish organisation responsible for promoting bloodstock sales from the emerald isle back a five furlong handicap. The final race of Friday gives apprentice riders their chance and welcomes a new supporter in Gough & Kelly, a Yorkshire firm specialising in security products and services for schools or hospitals amongst other sites.
The two days of racing get underway with an interesting novice contest over the unusual distance of five and a half furlongs. It is among the twenty-one contests backed by the European Breeders' Fund.
Catering for broad musical tastes, both days offer the summer vibe of a steel band or Murphy's Marbles brand of foot-stomping Irish tunes. Saturday also hosts Paradise Lane performing their melodic set of popular covers on the bandstand as the last race crosses the line.
The newly installed Giant Screen overlooking the Roberto Lawn will continue to offer uninterrupted coverage of the FIFA World Cup; providing a home to Wimbledon coverage on Friday and earlier on Saturday.
A number of other giant screens will enable racegoers to enjoy even more of the action on both days, along with racing from Newmarket's July Meeting and Ascot. The popular punters' panel held prior to racing on the winners' podium will preview the card on both days.
Buy the Go Racing in Yorkshire Season Ticket
Beverley Racecourse
Catterick Racecourse
Doncaster Racecourse
Pontefract Racecourse
Redcar Racecourse
Ripon Racecourse
Thirsk Racecourse
Wetherby Racecourse
York Racecourse
Wetherby Racecourse, York Road, Wetherby, West Yorkshire, LS22 5EJ
admin@goracing.co.uk


About Us – Roven Law Group P.C.
Janice Roven has been practicing law for more than 30 years.
Matrimonial and divorce clients take comfort knowing that she was involved in her own custody battle, which provided her with insight into the client's perspective in a separation and custody struggle. Her post-custody reflection on the turmoil, the hostilities, the negotiations and the resolutions that arise in the divorce process make her uniquely qualified to meet her clients' needs, both in and out of the courtroom.
In her insurance defense practice, Janice has represented physicians and hospitals in personal injury and medical malpractice cases. She has represented and sued pharmaceutical companies in pharmaceutical products liability cases. Janice has represented insurance companies, national accounts and third-Party administrators in general liability matters.
Janice has written wills and prepared trusts for clients who seek to determine precisely how their assets will be distributed and their legacy continued when they no longer can speak for them selves.
Janice has appeared on NBC News and has published many articles in legal trade journals and various other publications.
Janice is one of the few women lawyers in New York State with a Master's Degree in Litigation, which she obtained at Emory University School of Law. She previously earned her law degree from Emory and completed the National Institute of Trial Advocacy Program. Janice is admitted to practice law in New York, New Jersey and Georgia, as well as before the Supreme Court of the United States. She graduated with Honors in Political Science from Barnard College, Columbia University.
Janice Roven: Strength and compassion to represent your specific needs.


Getting vaccinated can be an important part of healthy aging. Below is a list of four popular vaccines that Medicare helps pay for. You might want to consider talking with your doctor to see if these vaccines are right for your health and checking with your Medicare provider about where you can get them.
For more information about Medicare, contact us at (941) 405 – 3900.


This exquisitely converted barn is not only a fantastic event space, but it also has three sumptuously comfortable double-bedrooms available too. Floor to ceiling glass doors open out onto a Cloister Garden, complete with fountain for al fresco drinks receptions; weather permitting. Oh, and on selected dates you can combine your event with a tour and a spot of wine tasting too.
Poulton Hill Estate is a unique event venue and working vineyard producing award winning wines. Conveniently situated a short drive from the A417 between Cirencester and Lechlade, the Estate provides a glorious backdrop for any event.
A tree-lined driveway transports you to the stunning quintessential Cotswold stone barn. Inside the Long Room with its log fire, delightful décor, and stunning art and sculptures is sure to impress any guest. The solid oak table seats up to 16 for a meeting, wine tasting or dinner event. For larger corporate and private events, the Long Room extends through into a glass-ceiling atrium bursting with light and can hold up to 100 people for a sit-down dinner.
The setting and the space really are just perfect for product launches, drinks receptions, celebrations and corporate events.
If you're looking for something 'a bit different' to do for a team building event or with a social group, then the regular tours and tastings* that the vineyard hosts could well be the answer.


We make the social impact!
We are an explosive and passionate Digital Media and PR agency located in London.
Our goal is to cut through the noise providing memorable exposure and increased revenue.
We help businesses reach their target audience via a co-ordinated mix of traditional and contemporary marketing, including social media marketing, events and PR.
Bombshell Consultancy Ltd is the parent company of South West London leading lifestyle blog ladywimbledon.com.
Her impressive PR and media background includes the title of UK PR Manager of Sony Entertainment. While her focus is now on promoting SMEs.
Sandra remains a huge influencer and entrepreneur in and around SW London as the Editor-in-chief ladywimbledon.com.
Flora is our talented Social Media Manager.
She is on her wellness journey and hopes to encourage you to join her. She's proud to be voicing the importance of mind health in a world where we're striving for unrealistic perfection.
Alice is our lively PR and Social Media Marketing Account Manager, who is always up-to-date on the latest trends and most popular influencers.
Alice is also capturing her adventures through ladywimbledon.com as a keen travel blogger with an eye for luxury travel and lifestyle.
Milena has an experienced marketing background and knowledge that covers all digital marketing channels.
Her Italian blood infuses her innate love for fashion and style, and she recently launched Style Wimbledon, which is part of ladywimbledon.com.
Get in touch now! A member of our friendly team is just a call away, or if you prefer send us an email.


text:
TEST / DeathloopXbox Series X|SReturnalHalo InfiniteElden Ring
Review / The Falconeer: a fantastic and original aerial shooter
Jeu / The FalconeerDisponible sur PC / Xbox One / Xbox Series X|S
Jeu The FalconeerDisponible sur
PCXbox One / Series X|S
The Falconeer is one of the UFOs. Video games developed by one person and which still manage to make a name for themselves before their release, often for a good reason: they are promising.
An even rarer event, The Falconeer is squarely part of the launch games for the Xbox Series X|S, and that's a good thing! If the game has been mentioned a lot because it allows you to reach the famous 120 fps, it is also an original and entertaining video game adventure that you might like.
Let's go for the test of The Falconeer, a game developed by Tomas Sala.
(Tomas Sala, if you ever read this text, bravo for the realization!)
The Falconeer takes us to a universe where land has given way to an infinite ocean. Humanity survives in villages clinging to a few mountains or other rocks scattered around a huge rift that lies in the middle of the water separating the survivors into several factions
Obviously, travel is done by sea and air, whether for the transport of information or goods.
It is in this original world that you will evolve and experience several adventures, to discover the history of this civilization.
In The Falconeer, we embody a somewhat original "falconer". Indeed, our falcon is not a pet that can land on your arm, but it is in fact an animal that is several times your size.
The story of The Falconeer is made up of several chapters which will allow us to discover several facets of the history of the world in which we play.
Indeed, each chapter allows us to embody a character from a different faction. Once the 4 chapters are completed, we then fully understand the vision of the protagonists and the unfolding of events.
To begin our story, we have to choose the hero we are going to play. We can choose from several characters with different names and faces, but also between two different classes which change our skills a little at the start of the game.
Our hero starting the adventure at level 1, he will gradually evolve which will improve the capacities of our hawks (agility, speed, resistance …) in order to allow us to take up increasingly difficult challenges.
Once the chapter has started, we find ourselves in the main city of our "family" and we can now walk around the map. The Falconeer is a game that allows us to freely explore the map by flying as we wish.
The gameplay to fly with our falcon is nice, but you have to figure out how to fully control it. For example you can accelerate for a few moments thanks to a stamina gauge that must be filled by making dives.
To rise, we can use the air currents that will propel us upwards, or forward to gain speed. If the freedom in flight is total, we must learn quickly to handle our mount so as not to have unpleasant surprises during the fights.
Because The Falconeer is also a fighting game in which we have to choose to protect the boats we escort, objects we carry around between our talons or attack flying enemies, boats, and even fortresses.
To get there, you will have to control your hawk while targeting your opponents. A locking system allows you to always keep an eye on your target while performing stunts.
The fights quickly become more and more lively and stressful, whether it is by the number of adversaries that you meet, but also by the diversity of the weapons of the enemies, or by the weather conditions which come to add a little spice.
An interesting feature is also in the game with the ability to lock several different parts of an enemy ship. You can destroy the cannons, or else the means of transport first, just press a button.
The only problem is that in a rush, we don't always know very well what we have selected as the target …
You don't have unlimited "ammo", so it needs to be recharged every now and then with energy that you can find in the midst of thunderstorms or by going near volcanoes.
For example, if you reload your weapon with volcanic energy, you can fire fiery shots that will burn your opponents.
Your mount can only be equipped with one weapon at a time. On the other hand, you have the possibility of replacing it with a new one for a fee. The new one will do more damage, but it will also function differently.
The most expensive weapon in the game does massive damage, but it really drains your ammo very quickly. At buying the weapon that best fits your style of play. You can also "upgrade" your hawk, either with temporary or permanent objects accessories.
Apart from the main mission, you can complete optional contracts to earn some money. The missions look like two drops of water to the story, only easier.
Unfortunately, they don't tell us anything about the plot of the game and we do them to earn coins, and it's pretty repetitive.
The Falconeer offers us an interesting story, fights that keep us going with a freedom of movement that pleases. Not to mention the universe that really makes you want to stroll, through the clouds, to escort lost ships or to explore abandoned temples.
The game is beautiful, in a particular visual style that offers us bright colors, all accompanied by perfect music. Just for the visual universe and the atmosphere, we want to launch the game to fly over the ocean for a few moments.
If you want to experience the adventure more realistically, you can hide the HUD so you only see your hawk. A good idea which is pleasant when exploring the world.
I played The Falconeer for ten hours to come to the end of the main story but also to wander around the map to discover it completely. You can easily spend a little time flying over abandoned islands, and you can always return to play any chapter while keeping the items and levels unlocked.
Les points positifs
Freedom to explore
Les points négatifs
Repetitive side missions
The management of weapons and hawks
Mentions spéciales
The Falconeer offers us a great gaming experience with an original adventure. The gameplay can hold back more than one, but once you understand how to control your hawk, you can take full advantage of the combat and the world to explore around you.
Where is the score assigned to the game in this test?
It's simple, there is none. We believe that the experience offered by a video game cannot be reduced to an arbitrary rating as complex as it is. We invite you to read the whole test and the verdict which give a fairly detailed idea of the experience provided by the game.
The Falconeer PCXbox OneXbox Series X|S
PCXbox OneXbox Series X|S The Falconeer
Date: 10/11/2020 | Genre: Aventure Open-World | Dev: Tomas Sala | Edt: Wired Productions
Review / Astro's Playroom: a perfect ode to DualSense and PlayStation heritage
The pair of PlayStation x Travis Scott sneakers in photos with the rest of the collection


The new 499 Crossfire comes with several standard features including a larger side sheet creating increased freeboard, fully welded side decks and a scupper drainage system. If this isn't enough, you can also option up with drum winches and a redesigned transom door.
Package only $38,690, which includes standard boat features as well as options/upgrades fitted (as above); Yamaha F75LB 75hp Four Stroke Outboard Motor; Stacer Alloy Trailer; Safety Gear; QLD Boat & Trailer Registrations; Dealer Delivery & Water Testing.
Northside Marine has been part of the Queensland boating lifestyle for over fifty years. Northside Marine are truly "Your boating partners for life!". We have the best brands in all things boating, at great prices. We also have the convenience of a fully air conditioned chandlery, ski & wake wonderland, and tackle shop; modern state of the art servicing facility; as well as a 40 vehicle car park with trailer access. At our dealership we can also arrange finance and insurance for your purchase; and we can have your new boat, used boat or marine craft shipped to your location. If you would like to find out how we can assist you, please contact us, we are happy to help.
* All information, specifications, and sale prices are subject to change without notice.


text:
layout: post
title: "2 ans à Lateral Thoughts"
---
Mes prédictions pour l'année 2013 étaient les suivantes :

-   plus de formations

-   émergence au moins d'un produit au sein de la société.

Qu'en est-il après douze nouveaux mois écoulés ?

Formations
==========

Première prédiction : correcte !

En effet, nous avons eu l'occasion de dispenser de nombreuses
[formations](http://www.lateral-thoughts.com/training), directement ou
par le biais de notre groupe Lateral-Training :

-   formations Java débutants

-   formations frontend (industrialisation, Backbone, Angular)

-   formations Mongo DB

-   formations custom (CQRS, API REST design)

De plus, nous avons animé plusieurs hands-on (Neo4j, Elastic Search) et
[Brown Bag Lunch](http://www.brownbaglunch.fr/) via Hugo à Lyon et
moi-même à Paris (j'ai depuis arrêté afin de me focaliser sur d'autres
projets). Nous avons d'ailleurs de plus en plus de contacts spontanés !

Hop hop hop ?
=============

[Hopwork](http://www.hopwork.com/) ! Aventure rondement menée par Hugo,
Jean-Baptiste et Vincent !

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Towarzystwo Wiedzy Obronnej – ogólnopolskie towarzystwo naukowe stawiające sobie za cel popularyzowanie wiedzy związanej z obronnością kraju i z reagowaniem w sytuacjach zagrożeń niemilitarnych.

Historia TWO
W latach 1919-1939 działało Towarzystwo Wiedzy Wojskowej.

Po II wojnie światowej utworzono w wojsku Koła Pracy Społecznej, a w 1956 powołano do życia Wojskowe Koła Naukowe, które w 1960 przekształcono w Koła Wiedzy Wojskowej. W 1971 utworzono stowarzyszenie wyższej użyteczności "Towarzystwo Wiedzy Wojskowo – Obronnej". Od 1977 organizacja nosi obecną nazwę "Towarzystwo Wiedzy Obronnej". Obecnie TWO zrzesza wojskowych w stanie czynnym i rezerwy, oraz przedstawicieli świata nauki i administracji publicznej.

Władze TWO
23 listopada 2009 podczas VIII Krajowego Zjazdu Delegatów TWO powołano Zarząd Główny w składzie:
 Zdzisław Barański
 Leonid Bujan
 Jerzy Czubacki
 Waldemar Kitler - prezes TWO
 Marian Kruk - wiceprezes TWO
 Kazimierz Mączka
 Andrzej Milik – sekretarz TWO
 Aleksander Podolski
 Paweł Soroka
 Krzysztof Zaczyński
 Marek Zdziech.

Medal Za zasługi w krzewieniu wiedzy obronnej
26 września 2007 na posiedzeniu Prezydium ZG TWO ustalono wizerunek Medalu "Za zasługi w krzewieniu wiedzy obronnej" przyznawanego przez ZG TWO za szczególne zasługi w działalności lektorskiej, wydawniczej i promocyjnej prowadzonej na rzecz obronności Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej.

Linki zewnętrzne
 Strona internetowa TWO
 Odznaczeni Medalem "Za Zasługi w krzewieniu wiedzy obronnej

Przypisy

Polskie towarzystwa naukowe
Historia wojskowości polskiej


text:
NJC Courses
Registrationadmin2019-06-28T11:23:44-08:00
Scientific Evidence & Expert Testimony (JS 622)
toThursday, Jun 11, 2020
1664 South Virginia Street
Reno, Nevada89507
The emergence of DNA analysis in the 1990s led to serious questioning of the validity of many of the traditional forensic disciplines. Very recently, forensic feature-comparison methods such as hair analysis, bullet comparison, fingerprints, bitemark comparisons, tire and shoe tread analysis, and the like, have been called into question. Additionally, case reviews have found that expert witnesses overstated the probative value of their evidence, going far beyond what the relevant science could justify. Are there additional science-based steps that could help ensure the validity of forensic evidence used in the U.S. legal system?
This course will provide you with the ability to evaluate and interpret scientific and forensic evidence and to rule confidently on their admissibility in both civil and criminal cases. Moreover, you will be able to highlight the limitations and challenges associated with certain types of forensic evidence and describe the current state of forensic methods.
Finally, you will be able to take into account the appropriate scientific criteria for assessing scientific validity including: foundational validity, with respect to the requirement under Rule 702(c) that testimony is the product of reliable principles and methods; and validity as applied, with respect to requirement under Rule 702(d) that an expert has reliably applied the principles and methods to the facts of the case.
Why should I take this course?
After attending this course, you will be able to recognize the judge's role as a gatekeeper of scientific evidence and expert testimony; identify the consistencies and contradictions between the cultures of law and science; describe basic statistical concepts commonly used by experts; outline the scientific methods available to researchers studying complex human behavior; state the proper function and qualifications of forensic pathologists; and identify key concepts relating to computer forensic evidence.
During this course, you will learn to:
Distinguish the differences and similarities between the Frye "general acceptance" test and the Daubert "scientific reliability" standard.
Define the process by which scientific discovery is made.
Describe some of the factors considered in evaluating the relevancy and reliability of proffered scientific evidence.
Examine and compare data to determine a scientific outcome.
Identify the key concepts of how computer forensic evidence is recovered and examined.
Understand what a DNA profile is and identify the most recent developments and best practices in DNA testing.
Recognize the function and proper qualifications of a forensic pathologist.
Understand and be familiar with the techniques commonly employed in testing for drugs.
Explain the basic scientific and statistical concepts of "scientific evidence" and "statistical significance."
Knowledgeably discuss the scientific methods available to researchers studying complex human behavior.
This course is specially developed as an introductory course or as a refresher for judges who hear civil or criminal cases involving scientific evidence.
Who are the members of the faculty?
The faculty is composed of experienced and knowledgeable judges, law professors, and experts from other disciplines who have considerable experience in teaching judges and in using the techniques appropriate for a professional education.
How is this course taught?
The course is presented as an engaging mix of classroom lecture, interactive dialogue, and small-group discussions. You are encouraged to bring examples of particular trial problems for discussion with the faculty and with colleagues from other states.
What should I tell my presiding judge or funding agency so that my attendance will be approved?
By teaching judges the bases of fundamental rights this course enhances their abilities to adjudicate these issues, strengthens dedication to the U.S. system of justice, and dramatizes the role judges play in today's judicial system.
Whom should I contact for more information?
For more information, please contact the Registrar's Office at (800) 255-8343 or registrar@judges.org.
This course qualifies for 2 credits toward the Master of Judicial Studies Degree Program and Judicial Studies Doctoral Program at the University of Nevada, Reno upon successful completion of the course and passing the course exam. In addition, this course qualifies for The National Judicial College Certificate in Judicial Development Administrative Law Adjudication Skills, General Jurisdiction Trial Skills, Special Court Trial Skills, and the Tribal Judicial Skills disciplines.
Conference Fee
This event has reached registration capacity. Please provide your information to be placed on the waiting list.
Click here to get course announcements from the NJC.
How to Apply for a Scholarship
Download a PDF of our 2020 course list Click here to download the complete catalog


text:
Nanolpium milanganum es una especie de arácnido del orden Pseudoscorpionida de la familia Olpiidae.

Distribución geográfica
Se encuentra en Mozambique.

Referencias

Milanganum
Arácnidos de Mozambique


text:
California Already Has a Green New Deal. Here's How It Works
By Justin Worland
Updated: March 29, 2019 2:41 PM ET
Republicans in the Senate uniformly voted against the Green New Deal earlier this week. President Donald Trump thinks it can help him win re-election. And conservative pundits on cable news regularly rail against it.
But 3,000 miles away, the former Republican mayor of Fresno, a conservative hub of California's Central Valley, sounds very different.
When Ashley Swearengin talks about her economic development plans, she ends up describing policies that align with the principles of the Green New Deal: rethinking how the city does business to address climate change while dealing with a range of other social ills. Her plan includes rethinking the city's development patterns, zoning code and transportation infrastructure while reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% and addressing a slew of environmental problems.
"This is the response to the realities of climate change," she says, adding, "not just change but also the existing environmental burden that this corner of the state bears."
The Irony of Finding So Many Exoplanets in a Time of Climate Change
Thunberg at TIME Panel: 'Pretty Much Nothing Has Been Done'
Fresno is not alone. Officials in cities across California and in state government have for years been implementing a hodgepodge of programs aligned with the principles of a Green New Deal and, many of them say, California could be a model for how such a program could work at the national level.
"What we've done so far in California could be used as a model," says Kevin de León, who pushed through several key pieces of climate legislation as president pro tempore of the state senate, "not just for the sub-nationals but for national governments throughout the world."
The federal Green New Deal resolution, introduced by freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, calls for a "mobilization" to move the country to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades while also addressing a number of social ills. For now, it's more of a battle cry than a concrete set of policies.
In California, the spirit of the Green New Deal has been alive for years, if not described in those exact words.
Just as the Green New Deal is meant to be more of an umbrella for an aggressive approach to fighting climate change on multiple fronts, California does not have a silver bullet on its climate policy. Instead, officials in the deep-blue state have done everything from building high-speed rail to funding for clean energy research and development to rules requiring green initiatives that aid low-income communities. All of those programs are in service of the state's overall target, set last year, of hitting net-zero emissions by 2045.
Perhaps the most central program to California's internal climate fight is its five-year-old cap-and-trade program. The first of its kind in the country, the program sets a cap on carbon-dioxide emissions in multiple sectors and requires companies to pay if they emit too much. That money is then used for a variety of clean energy projects, and, thanks to a follow-up law, a quarter of the funding is used to the benefit of disadvantaged communities such as Fresno.
The results of the state's focus on equity in its clean and green push are already visible on the ground. In Oakland, a group called Rising Sun prepares workers to hold green jobs just as the state implements a requirement that all new homes are net zero. In Fresno,a public-private partnership is deploying a fleet of electric vehicles as a van pool for underserved areas.
The $7 million program, funded by cap-and-trade dollars, is designed to improve access for low-income communities while reducing emissions.
"Obviously, the use of electric vehicles and GHG (greenhouse gas) reduction technologies in our equipment is good for the environment," says Tara Lynn Gray, president of Fresno Metro Black Chamber of Commerce, who is leading the project. "But even more than that, we see it as a social justice project, and an economic justice project."
Importantly, this portfolio of programs has paid dividends in the state's bigger push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Last year, the state said that it had reduced its emissions to 1990 levels, achieving that goal much sooner than the state's original 2020 target. Californians emit less on a per capita basis than any state except New York, according to Energy Information Administration data, even though many of them commute over long distances.
The Green New Deal spirit also thrives at the city and county level. In Los Angeles, Mayor Eric Garcetti described his decision in February to cancel plans for three new gas-fired power plants as "the Green New Deal, not in concept, not in the future, but now." The city has a goal of reducing emissions 45% by 2025, and the city's electric utility is studying how it can chart a path to 100% renewable energy. At the same, the city's sustainability program includes other measures to clean up communities and create green jobs.
"This is the type of work that we've been doing in L.A. for a long time," says Lauren Faber, the city's chief sustainability officer. "It's sort of the urban Green New Deal."
Critics of a federal Green New Deal like to point to its estimated multi-trillion-dollar price tag and suggest that such a program would kill the economy. "It's more money than you have in the world," Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity this week.
But California officials say their state's success offers an obvious rebuttal: the state's economy is larger than that of all but four countries and continues to grow alongside that of the rest of the country. In fact, they say, the savings from avoided health costs, avoided costs of climate-proofing the state and the creation of green jobs, easily outweigh the cost. "It's not just about reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions," says Matt Petersen, president of the city-supported Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator. "It's about creating jobs, about creating new companies and a new economy."
Still, there are significant differences between the text of the federal Green New Deal resolution and the suite of programs happening on the ground in California. The Green New Deal calls for emissions reductions at a faster pace, a difficult ask given the notoriously slow nature of the federal government and some of the technical realities, and includes policies are not central o slowing climate change like the universal health care plank.
At the same time, the framers of the federal Green New Deal resolution seemed determined to abandon anything that could be perceived as too moderate. There's no reference to carbon pricing, a component that many environmental advocates see as a mistake given its bipartisan appeal and its simplicity.
Climate Refugees Cannot Be Forced Home: U.N. Panel
And the Green New Deal framers have largely left big business, key players in U.S. politics, out of the conversation. That's a "missed opportunity," says Vien Truong, president of Green for All, a progressive environmental group, "When we began to see businesses involved in the California fight," she says, "we were able to move much further along and much faster."
Leaders of the effort for a federal Green New Deal may or may not heed that advice as they grapple with their next steps. The Senate voted down the measure this week in a symbolic vote, and Democrats are working to figure out what piecemeal climate legislation they may be able to pass in the coming two years with a divided Congress and a Republican president. At they same time, they are also gearing up for a big legislative push in 2021 in the event that Democrats regain the White House.
In the meantime, no matter what happens at the federal level, states like California — and a handful of others where bold climate policies have gained traction in recent years — offer a big opportunity to experiment. And, supporters say, that's what the Green New Deal is all about.
Write to Justin Worland at justin.worland@time.com.


This was a combination of two recipes from Real Simple. I sautéed shrimp with garlic and oil, then added it to 1 cup macaroni with 1 egg, 1 egg white, 1/3 cup Parmesan cheese, and 1/4 cup cooking water from the pasta. I think it made a pretty good lunch.


text:
Q: How to delete pandas values based on condition and accordingly shift the rows For examples, I have a DataFrame like this:
       Rank #1       Rank #2      Rank #3        Rank #4     status
0        A             B            D               C          in
1        B             C            A               D          out
2        A             D            C               B          in
3        A             B            C               D          out
4        D             C            B               A          out
5        D             A            C               B          out
...

How can I delete A values if status == out and then shift the other row ranking values to the left?
My expected outcome is:
     Rank #1       Rank #2      Rank #3        Rank #4     status
0        A             B            D               C        in
1        B             C            D                        out
2        A             D            C               B        in
3        B             C            D                        out
4        D             C            B                        out
5        D             C            B                        out
...

A: Here is one way.
import pandas as pd, numpy as np

df = pd.DataFrame({1: ['A', 'B', 'A','A', 'D', 'D'],
                   2: ['B', 'C', 'D', 'B', 'C', 'A'],
                   3: ['D', 'A', 'C', 'C', 'B', 'C'],
                   4: ['C', 'D', 'B', 'D', 'A', 'B'],
                   'status': ['in', 'out', 'in', 'out', 'out', 'out']})

mask = df['status'] == 'out'
df.loc[mask, :] = df.loc[mask, :].replace('A', '')

A = [list(''.join(i)) for i in df.iloc[:, :-1].values]

df_res = pd.DataFrame(A).fillna('').assign(result=df.status)

Result
   0  1  2  3 result
0  A  B  D  C     in
1  B  C  D       out
2  A  D  C  B     in
3  B  C  D       out
4  D  C  B       out
5  D  C  B       out

Explanation

*

*Replace "A" with empty string for selected rows.

*Shift entries to the left via a list comprehension.

*Create result dataframe and add back "status" column.