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Express, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2021 Results
By: Express, Inc. via Business Wire News Releases
December 02, 2021 at 06:45 AM EST
Fashion apparel retailer Express, Inc. (NYSE: EXPR), announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2021. These results, which cover the thirteen weeks ended October 30, 2021, are compared to the thirteen weeks ended October 31, 2020. Certain results are compared to the thirteen weeks ended November 2, 2019, as indicated.
"Our strong third quarter results reflect the second consecutive quarter of profitable growth and positive comparable sales versus 2019, and demonstrate the power of our EXPRESSway Forward strategy," said Tim Baxter, Chief Executive Officer. "Our results provide tangible evidence that the versatility, quality and value of our product is resonating with consumers. I am confident that we will continue to deliver positive comparable sales and gross margin expansion versus 2019 in the fourth quarter."
Third Quarter 2021 Operating Results
Consolidated net sales increased 47% to $472.0 million from $322.1 million in the third quarter of 2020, with consolidated comparable sales up 46%. Compared to 2019, consolidated comparable sales increased by 3%.
Comparable retail sales, which includes both Express stores and eCommerce, increased 52% compared to the third quarter of 2020.
Comparable outlet store sales increased 33% versus the third quarter of 2020.
Please note, comparable sales calculations are not consistent across all retailers. Our comparable sales exclude sales from stores that were closed for at least one full day, including during the pandemic, consistent with our historical policy.
Gross margin was 33.2% of net sales compared to 4.3% in last year's third quarter, an increase of approximately 2,890 basis points. Compared to 2019, gross margin increased by 500 basis points.
Merchandise margin improved approximately 1,350 basis points compared to 2020 driven by positive customer response to our new receipts and significant reduction in promotional activity.
Buying and occupancy expenses leveraged approximately 1,540 basis points compared to 2020 due to increased sales and rent reductions.
Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $141.1 million, 29.9% of net sales, versus $124.9 million, 38.8% of net sales, in last year's third quarter. The improvement in SG&A rate is driven by leveraging the increased sales and cost reductions from the previously announced corporate restructuring. The $16.2 million increase versus 2020 is mainly driven by last year's pandemic related store closures and current year incremental investments in marketing.
Operating income was $16.3 million compared to a loss of $110.9 million in the third quarter of 2020 and a loss of $6.7 million in the third quarter of 2019.
Income tax expense was $0.3 million at an effective tax rate of 2.2% and includes a $1.5 million partial release of the valuation allowance against the Company's deferred tax assets. This compares to a benefit of $21.5 million and an effective tax rate of 19.2% in the third quarter of 2020. Excluding the benefit of the valuation allowance release, the effective tax rate would have been approximately 13% driven by a true-up from the second quarter provision due to an improvement in forecasted pre-tax results.
Net income was $13.1 million, or $0.19 per diluted share. On an adjusted basis, net income was $11.6 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, excluding the benefit of the previously mentioned valuation allowance reversal. This compares to a net loss of $90.3 million, or a loss of $1.39 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2020. On an adjusted basis, net loss was $76.2 million, or a loss of $1.17 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2020.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) was $31.9 million compared to negative EBITDA of $92.6 million in the third quarter of 2020. EBITDA was $14.2 million in the third quarter of 2019.
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Highlights
Cash and cash equivalents totaled $36.8 million versus $107.3 million at the end of the third quarter of 2020.
Inventory was $383.6 million at the end of the third quarter, up 9% compared to $350.6 million at the end of the prior year's third quarter which reflected accelerated investments in core product with limited markdown risk to mitigate supply chain challenges. Compared to 2019, inventory increased 11%.
Short-term debt was $10.1 million and long-term debt was $108.4 million at the end of the third quarter of 2021 compared to long-term debt of $165.0 million at the end of the prior year's third quarter.
At the end of the third quarter of 2021, $155.3 million remained available for borrowing under the revolving credit facility.
Operating cash flow was $78.3 million for the thirty-nine weeks ended October 30, 2021, compared to $(251.6) million for the thirty-nine weeks ended October 31, 2020, and $32.8 million for the thirty-nine weeks ended November 2, 2019.
Capital expenditures totaled $18.1 million for the thirty-nine weeks ended October 30, 2021, compared to $13.6 million for the thirty-nine weeks ended October 31, 2020, and $20.5 million for the thirty-nine weeks ended November 2, 2019.
Free cash flow was $60.2 million for the thirty-nine weeks ended October 30, 2021, compared to $(265.2) million for the thirty-nine weeks ended October 31, 2020, and $12.3 million for the thirty-nine weeks ended November 2, 2019.
Based on strong third quarter performance and the power of our product, brand, and customer strategies balanced against the ongoing supply chain constraints, tight labor market and other inflationary pressures, the Company expects the following compared to 2019:
Comparable sales to increase by low-single digits for the fourth quarter
Inventory level and composition well-positioned to deliver the fourth quarter sales outlook
Gross Margin rate to be approximately 100 basis points higher for the fourth quarter, including approximately $15 million of expenses related to mitigating supply chain challenges
Selling, General and Administrative expenses up 9% - 11%, driven by investments in marketing and higher labor expenses
Net interest expense of $3 million for the fourth quarter
Effective Tax rate essentially zero percent for the fourth quarter and full year
Positive free cash flow for the full year
Capital expenditures of approximately $35 million for the full year
Well positioned to achieve our long-term goals, including $1.0 billion in eCommerce demand and over $100 million in operating profit by 2024
Assumptions in the Company outlook may be affected by the continued uncertainty of the pandemic and its impacts throughout the supply chain.
See Schedule 5 for a discussion of projected real estate activity.
Conference Call Information
A conference call to discuss third quarter 2021 results is scheduled for December 2, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time (ET). Investors and analysts interested in participating in the earnings call are invited to dial (877) 683-0508 approximately ten minutes prior to the start of the call. The conference call will also be webcast live at www.express.com/investor and remain available for 90 days. A telephone replay of this call will be available beginning at 12:00 p.m. ET on December 2, 2021 until 11:59 p.m. ET on December 9, 2021 and can be accessed by dialing (800) 585-8367 and entering the replay pin number 1993518. In addition, an investor presentation of third quarter 2021 results will be available at www.express.com/investor at approximately 7:00 a.m. ET on December 2, 2021.
About Express, Inc.
Grounded in versatility and powered by a styling community, Express is a modern, multichannel apparel and accessories brand whose purpose is to Create Confidence & Inspire Self-Expression. Launched in 1980 with the idea that style, quality and value should all be found in one place, Express has been a part of some of the most important and culture-defining fashion trends. The Express Edit design philosophy ensures that the brand is always 'of the now' so people can get dressed for every day and any occasion knowing that Express can help them look the way they want to look and feel the way they want to feel.
The Company operates over 550 retail and outlet stores in the United States and Puerto Rico, the express.com online store and the Express mobile app. Express, Inc. is comprised of the brands Express and UpWest, and is traded on the NYSE under the symbol EXPR. For more information, please visit www.express.com.
Certain statements are "forward-looking statements" made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include any statement that does not directly relate to any historical or current fact and include, but are not limited to (1) guidance and expectations, including statements regarding expected operating margins, comparable sales, effective tax rates, interest income, net income, diluted earnings per share, cash tax refunds, liquidity, EBITDA, free cash flow, eCommerce demand, and capital expenditures, (2) statements regarding expected store openings, store closures, store conversions, and gross square footage, and (3) statements regarding the Company's strategy, plans, and initiatives, including, but not limited to, results expected from such strategy, plans, and initiatives. Forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions, which may not prove to be accurate. These statements are not guarantees and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict, and significant contingencies, many of which are beyond the Company's control. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially and adversely from these forward-looking statements. Among these factors are (1) changes in consumer spending and general economic conditions; (2) the COVID-19 pandemic and its continued impact on our business operations, store traffic, employee availability, financial condition, liquidity and cash flow; (3) our ability to operate our business efficiently, manage capital expenditures and costs, and obtain financing when required; (4) our ability to identify and respond to new and changing fashion trends, customer preferences, and other related factors; (5) fluctuations in our sales, results of operations, and cash levels on a seasonal basis and due to a variety of other factors, including our product offerings relative to customer demand, the mix of merchandise we sell, promotions, and inventory levels; (6) customer traffic at malls, shopping centers, and at our stores; (7) competition from other retailers; (8) our dependence on a strong brand image; (9) our ability to adapt to changing consumer behavior and develop and maintain a relevant and reliable omni-channel experience for our customers; (10) the failure or breach of information systems upon which we rely; (11) our ability to protect customer data from fraud and theft; (12) our dependence upon third parties to manufacture all of our merchandise; (13) changes in the cost of raw materials, labor, and freight; (14) supply chain or other business disruption, including as a result of the coronavirus; (15) our dependence upon key executive management; (16) our ability to execute our growth strategy, EXPRESSway Forward, including engaging our customers and acquiring new ones, executing with precision to accelerate sales and profitability, creating great product and reinvigorating our brand; (17) our substantial lease obligations; (18) our reliance on third parties to provide us with certain key services for our business; (19) impairment charges on long-lived assets; (20) claims made against us resulting in litigation or changes in laws and regulations applicable to our business; (21) our inability to protect our trademarks or other intellectual property rights which may preclude the use of our trademarks or other intellectual property around the world; (22) restrictions imposed on us under the terms of our asset-based loan facility, including restrictions on the ability to effect share repurchases; (23) changes in tax requirements, results of tax audits, and other factors that may cause fluctuations in our effective tax rate; (24) changes in tariff rates; and (25) natural disasters, extreme weather, public health issues, including pandemics, fire, acts of terrorism or war and other events that cause business interruption. Additional information concerning these and other factors can be found in Express, Inc.'s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law.
Express, Inc.
Receivables, net
Prepaid rent
Right of Use Asset, Net
Property and Equipment
Less: accumulated depreciation
Short-term lease liability
Long-Term Lease Liability
Total Stockholders' (Deficit)/Equity
(In thousands, except per share amounts)
Thirteen Weeks Ended
Thirty-Nine Weeks Ended
Cost of Goods Sold, Buying and Occupancy Costs
GROSS PROFIT/(LOSS)
Selling, general, and administrative expenses
Other operating income, net
OPERATING INCOME/(LOSS)
Other Expense, Net
INCOME/(LOSS) BEFORE INCOME TAXES
Income Tax Expense/(Benefit)
NET INCOME/(LOSS)
WEIGHTED AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING:
Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash provided by (used in) operating activities:
Loss on disposal of property and equipment
Impairment of property, equipment and lease assets
Equity method investment impairment
Share-based compensation
Deferred taxes
Landlord allowance amortization
Other non-cash adjustments
Accounts payable, deferred revenue, and accrued expenses
Other assets and liabilities
Proceeds from borrowings under the revolving credit facility
Repayment of borrowings under the revolving credit facility
Proceeds from borrowings under the term loan facility
Repayment of borrowings under the term loan facility
Proceeds on financing arrangements
Repayments of financing arrangements
Costs incurred in connection with debt arrangements
Repurchase of common stock for tax withholding obligations
NET CASH (USED IN) PROVIDED BY FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Supplemental Information - Consolidated Statements of Income
Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures
The Company supplements the reporting of its financial information determined under United States generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) with certain non-GAAP financial measures: adjusted net income/(loss), adjusted operating income/(loss), adjusted diluted earnings per share, EBITDA, and free cash flow.
How These Measures Are Useful
The Company believes that these non-GAAP measures provide additional useful information to assist stockholders in understanding its financial results and assessing its prospects for future performance. Management believes adjusted net income/(loss), adjusted operating income/(loss), adjusted diluted earnings per share, and EBITDA are important indicators of the Company's business performance because they exclude items that may not be indicative of, or are unrelated to, the Company's underlying operating results, and may provide a better baseline for analyzing trends in the business. In addition, adjusted diluted earnings per share and EBITDA are used as a performance measures in the Company's long-term executive compensation program for purposes of determining the number of equity awards that are ultimately earned and EBITDA is also a metric used in our short-term cash incentive compensation plan. Management believes that free cash flow provides useful information regarding liquidity as it shows our operating cash flows less cash reinvested in the business (capital expenditures).
Limitations of the Usefulness of These Measures
Because non-GAAP financial measures are not standardized, it may not be possible to compare these financial measures with other companies' non-GAAP financial measures having the same or similar names. These adjusted financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for reported net income/(loss), operating loss, or diluted earnings per share. These non-GAAP financial measures reflect an additional way of viewing the Company's operations that, when viewed with the GAAP results and the below reconciliations to the corresponding GAAP financial measures, provide a more complete understanding of the Company's business. Management strongly encourages investors and stockholders to review the Company's financial statements and publicly-filed reports in their entirety and not to rely on any single financial measure.
Thirteen Weeks Ended October 30, 2021
Reported GAAP Measure
Valuation allowance on deferred taxes (a)
Adjusted Non-GAAP Measure
Valuation allowance released due to improvement in forecasted 2021 pre-tax results.
Thirty-Nine Weeks Ended October 30, 2021
Valuation allowance on deferred taxes (b)
Tax impact of the CARES Act (c)
Items tax affected at the applicable deferred or statutory rate.
Valuation allowance provided against previously recognized deferred tax assets and 2020 losses, less net operating losses utilized under the CARES Act.
Income tax benefit primarily due to a net operating loss carryback under the CARES Act to years with a higher federal statutory tax rate than is currently enacted.
Equity method investment impairment (b)
Valuation allowance on deferred taxes (c)
Tax impact of the CARES Act (d)
Tax impact of executive departures (e)
Impairment before tax was $2.7 million and was recorded in other expense, net.
Represents the tax impact related to the expiration of former executive non-qualified stock options.
EBITDA (Non-GAAP Measure)
Interest income, net
Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP Measure)
Real Estate Activity
Third Quarter 2021 - Actual
October 30, 2021 - Actual
Company-Operated Stores
Store Count
Gross Square Footage
Express Edit Concept Stores1
UpWest Stores
Fourth Quarter 2021 - Projected
January 29, 2022 - Projected
Full Year 2021 - Projected
The initial lease terms for Express Edit Concept stores are typically less than 12 months.
VP, Investor Relations
gjohnson@express.com
Express Inc


In education, the words "Mobile Learning" are starting to appear more often. Mobile learning is anytime, anywhere seamless learning. In other words, it is ubiquitous learning. A mobile learning device could be a laptop, net book, iPad, iPod Touch or even a smart phone.
Many schools have labeled the use of mobile technology as a distraction in the classroom. Also, many schools have banned cell phones. On the other hand, as technology has improved, many schools are seeing the benefits of using these devices in the classroom. Educators are coming to realize that the students use these types of devices everyday at home, and then are asked to "power down" when they get to school.
St. Marys City Schools in Ohio has decided to embrace using smart phone technology as an educational tool. In St. Marys, the smart phones are referred to as a "Mobile Learning Device" (MLD). The term "MLD" is used because of the negative connotation of the word cell phones in schools. The texting and the phone capabilities are turned off, which essentially makes it a small computer. This coming year, every student from 3rd to 5th grade will have a mobile learning device in his or her hand. There will be over 500 devices within the school district. Also, they will be incorporating BYOD, Bring Your Own Device, as a pilot for the upper grade levels. The goal of the district is to have a mobile device in the hand of every student from 3rd to 12th grade.
SMCS is "leveling the playing field". Now every student has Internet access, word processing capabilities and many supportive applications. The GoKnow applications that are being used allow the teachers to create and "sync" lessons to the students' devices. When the students complete the assignment, they simply "sync" their work, and the teacher can grade their assignment at their computer. These Mobile Learning Devices are not an add-on within the classroom. The students are able to take them from class to class and are with the students throughout the entire day. The students also have the ability to use video, audio and camera aspects on their device. Many teachers allow the students to take their MLD on field trips to take pictures and to record notes.
This so called "disruptive technology" has had a positive impact on the students. Unmotivated students have become motivated. The use of these devices has enabled educators to reach all learning styles. The students are completely immersed and engaged in their learning. St. Marys has noticed an increase in mathematics and writing achievement. With the ongoing improvements and changes being made technologically, St. Marys City Schools is making an effort to change along with the times. St. Marys has had great success implementing Mobile Learning devices into the classroom! To find out more about St. Marys Mobile Learning Technology visit their website www.smriders.net/Mobile_Learning/.


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Month: Oct 2018
European Union, Political
Stirring the 'Alchemy' Cauldron
Oct 29, 2018 Oct 21, 2021 Andrew Livingstone
The British Chancellor's Budget karma has been run over by the German Chancellor's dogma. It's another chance for Remainers to think again.
¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤
Reposted here with kind permission of John Ward
Perhaps we'll know more as the day goes on, but it does sound like Mutti Merkel wants have her 'Wurst' and eat them too on this "resignation" she just announced. No longer CDU Party Leader….um, but still Chancellor. Good luck with that one, Germany.
The reality is that Big Geli's position has become increasingly impossible over the last few months, and the primary reason for this is her insane support (at least in public) for largely unfettered migration from Africa to Europe. German voters in Hesse turned against her over the weekend, so now she's hoping to shed some work while retaining all the power. As an aspiration, it sums up the anti-democratic nature of the EU's leaders to perfection.
This is the rapidly crumbling "united" Europe that Philip Mammoned is so desperate we should not leave. As predicted here last night, he has already warned that taxes will be higher and welfare will be cut if we do a no-deal Brexit. He hasn't explained why; in fact, he still hasn't briefed us as to why he thinks we'll have to pay a €36bn divorce fee despite it getting no mention at all in any of the EU Treaties or Article 50 of the Constitution.
But then, this is politics today: keep on lying and don't worry, it'll be forgotten in a few hours….once the waters have been muddied by 80 spinning sticks and scarlet starlet Julia Gangbang's boob job.
Because you see, nobody's paying attention to the cerebral. They're far too distracted by the celebrity.
However, here's a little hint for Adonis, Jones, Blair, Campbell, Mandelson & Pensioners: Angela Merkel's problems are merely another step along the less than winding road to EU chaos. Even the Lib-Dem narcosis Nicky Cleggover has spotted that the game is up, and has fled to the safety of 'Basefuck' in Silicon Valley.
Mutti is asking the German people to accept a splitting of Party Leader/Chancellor roles that she is on the record many times over the years as stressing should never be split.
However, maybe she can spin this one by taking a new State title. Führerin, for example. Perhaps she will now build a retreat somewhere in the Bavarian mountains (the Merkhof?) and become Queen of Europe, with the Divine Right to change her mind as circumstances dictate.
The whole idea is potty. I sincerely hope that in the next 72 hours somebody from the Rommel school of plain speaking will grow the balls to tell her it's over…that the time has come for her to retire and enjoy her poorly deserved EC pension of forty billion euro a week.
P.S. I really couldn't give a running jump about what Flip Hamshank has to say in his Budget speech. Far more enlightening will be what his colleagues in the 3% club have to say about it. Stay tuned.
Rebuilding Common Law Democracy
LUK R – Manifesto – 28.10.18
Accrington Aylesbury Banbury Blackburn Bristol Burton on Trent Canterbury
Chelmsford Coventry Derby Dewsbury Halifax Huddersfield Keighley Leeds
Middlesbrough Newcastle on Tyne Oxford Peterborough Rochdale Rotherham
It doesn't have to be like this, surely you are not happy with this state of affairs?
" More faces than t' Town Hall clock"!
This is an excellent article exposing Theresa May's ongoing betrayal of Leave:
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/a-week-is-a-long-time-in-treachery/
"Then, in its edition of Monday October 8, the Daily Telegraph revealed that May's government, including ministers and whips, had for several months been in covert contact with at least 25 Labour MPs, to push her Chequers Deal through Parliament by relying on their votes against a very substantial minority of her own MPs. We were thus confronted, yet again, with evidence of May's deceitfully plotting to dilute or even negate Brexit, in secret, against her own Parliamentarians, party and voters, with the shameful collusion of her Cabinet.
A Cabinet, moreover, that appears to have raised not a whimper of objection to the Brexit negotiations not being on the agenda for this week's Cabinet meeting. Although perhaps we should no longer be surprised at its collective lack of backbone. One of the most nauseating sights of the 'Conservative' Party conference was that of May's Cabinet during her leader's speech. She produced her 'Chequers Plan' in secret behind their backs, then imposed it on them on pain of dismissal, after first clearing it with Angela Merkel, yet just three months later they sit and sycophantically clap her like performing seals."
David v Goliath
Today, in Newcastle upon Tyne, the Crown Prosecution Service brought a case on behalf of the Gateshead Council, against Mark Steele, a local man possessed of considerable energy, determination and technical nous, who has been 'getting up the nose' of the local dignitaries for some time, by persistently complaining that '5G' – a phased-array transmission system, is neither SAFE nor SUITABLE for public consumption.
To the lay-person like you and me, this may be small news, and, because we haven't bothered to clue ourselves up about it, may seem like 'much ado about sod-all', but the fact is that this proposed signal strength (60x stronger than the 4G which you are currently using on your most with-it cellphone) is already being trialled at various townships in the UK without so much as a 'by-your-leave' to the guinea-pig citizens affected.
In Gateshead alone, more than 31,800 transmitting devices have been affixed to the top of their street lights.
Now Mark, who has been clued up on this field of electromagnetic radiation for many years, told me that this is not 'new' technology, in fact it has been used in military work since 1948. Which begs the question, why is such a powerful signal necessary in civilian circles? The answer is, of course, that, for your cellphone to work efficiently, it isn't.
When we see medical proof that exposure to this strength of signal is causing an interaction with the human biological system, giving rise to cancers, diabetes and cardiac disease, then we have to conclude that there is a hidden motivation. We leave you to guess what THAT may be..
In the court hearing today, Mark was fortunate enough to find himself in front of a judge who definitely seems to be made of better stuff than the one who ran the 'kangaroo-court' against Stephen Lennon in Leeds on 26th March this year. Whilst taking Mark to task and setting our man under injunction for his 'over-exuberant' presentation , Judge Nolan made it clear to the Gateshead Council cohort that 'substantial credible scientific documentation' had been presented to highlight the risks to public health, that he was 'going to uphold democracy' – and sent the local authority away to do a bit more thinking.
As a footnote to this day, we point out that the insurers, Lloyds of London, have recently issued a statement excluding them from
"any liability coverage for all claims directly or indirectly arising out of, resulting from, or contributed to by electromagnetic fields, electromagnetic radiation, electromagnetism, radio waves or noise" (Exclusion 32)
information from CFC Underwriting Ltd, a Lloyds of London underwriter.
All of which, you may feel, shows that our nation needs this level of 'big brother' interference about as much as we need the ill-conceived HS2 rail fantasy..
TREASON ALERT!
Oct 5, 2018 Oct 21, 2021 Andrew Livingstone
HAVE WE NOW LOST OUR ARMED SERVICES TO THE EUROPEAN UNION?…
…and our leading Brexiteers are unwilling to talk about it. Why? What is REALLY going on here?
The military unification of our Armed Services with the European Union is actually happening, at an increasing rate, even though we are now meant to be months away from leaving the EU. Politicians on both sides of the Brexit Debate are doing absolutely nothing about this, and neither is the campaign group Leave Means Leave.
What IS this PESCO process? It stands for Permanent Structured Cooperation. Its purpose is to unify the military command and control elements of the different EU member states into one unit that comes under the direct command of the European Union. And – virtually unknown to the British people – this process includes our own Armed Services, despite our Referendum vote to leave.
Why is TM siding with the Brussels thugs, who clearly intend to asset-strip our country? We will lose our nation's ability to defend itself? I don't think so. We can also be dragged into a war not of our making? No thank you. This is High Treason!
Since 1952, a European Union 'Superstate' has been planned, with the ability to project its own military power and capabilities. The PESCO process will also see the UK lose control of its defence procurement, industry and training – all unbelievably serious – our country, very soon, will be defenceless, no longer independent or sovereign.
Why the reluctance of our elected politicians to confront this? The mind-set which created and now controls the European Union also controls the City of London…and the City of London thinks it controls Parliament. We are talking about what is sometimes referred to as the 'Deep State' – an elitist grouping of unelected and unaccountable financial and corporate oligarchs who meet in secret, unlawfully controlling the world's money supply, and most of the world's leading politicians (point of interest – four of Leave Means Leave's main supporters actually worked for N.M. Rothschild).
So, is this Leave Means Leave campaign batting with a straight bat? Is there a giant deception plan going on here, that we, the people, do not know about?
Surely we can see that the historical status of Common Law is utterly meaningless to these self-important parasites in Westmonster. Which of them do we think could EVER actually deliver on the Referendum decision of the electorate? This is another glaring example of arrogant duplicity.
Make your voice heard today – ask your MP to explain the PESCO process!
Ask them what has been done so far? Ask them what they, personally, are going to do about it? Don't let them off the hook!
www.ukcolumn.org (read about the Franco British Council)
www.newchartistmovement.org.uk (read The Six Requirements)
Send for further details on stopping the rot – 'info@livingstones.uk'

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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The number of deaths caused by the tropical storm Eta in Guatemala increased to 27 on Sunday, 8, while authorities are still searching for...
Brazil China and Russia do not Speak out After Biden's Victory in The USA
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Bolsonaro did not manifest himself on social networks, different from several leaders such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu While several leaders congratulated Democrat Joe Biden on...
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Despite the articulations, review teams cannot enter agencies until the General Services Administration formally identifies an election winner Advisers to the elected President of the...
Although I am The First Woman, I Will Not be The Last, Says Kamala Harris
United States Vice President-elect Kamala Harris was responsible for introducing Joe Biden's first speech after being elected. Kamala appeared dressed entirely in white, a symbol of the peace...
Hamsta is Making a Name for Himself in The Music Industry
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Opioid abuse and addiction is an increasingly devastating problem across the U.S., and it might hit closer to home than you realize. Between 1999 and 2018, almost 450,000 people died from an overdose involving any opioid (including prescriptions).
With opioids, what starts as short-term use as a prescription can easily turn into a life-altering addiction. Many users don't realize they've developed an addiction until it affects life and work to the point of devastation.
It can be challenging to recognize the warning signs for yourself or others without the right information. Keep reading to learn more about what to look for and how to get help fast.
What Are Opioids?
Opioids are a class of drugs found in the opium poppy plant. When used, these drugs (prescription or recreational) can block or reduce the number of pain signals sent to the brain. When prescribed as pain killers, you might recognize opioids as medications like:
However, in its recreational form, people seek out drugs like opium and heroin to feed an addiction.
What Are the Signs of Opioid Abuse?
Overindulging on prescription opioid medications or transitioning to drugs like heroin can indicate an addiction. However, recognizing some warning signs can help you or a loved one seek treatment at a drug rehab center.
Physical Symptoms of Opioid Abuse
Opioid abuse can lead to physical symptoms, including:
Shallow breathing or a slow breathing rate
These physical symptoms will happen with increasing frequency that can become the normal state of existence for severe addicts. Without help, these health problems can become severe long-term conditions or lead to death.
Along with physical issues, opioid addicts can exhibit behavioral problems, including:
Extreme anxiety attacks
Poor decision making
Problems following rules or laws
Low motivation and abandonment of responsibilities
Changes in sleep (too much or too little)
Loss of appetite (or a significant increase in appetite)
Sudden and ongoing financial hardship
Missing appointments
Isolation and withdrawal from friends or family
On their own or occasionally, these symptoms can be signs of a variety of issues unrelated to opioid use. However, When you know someone who falls into these behavioral patterns consistently, it can be a red flag indicating opioid abuse and addiction.
If you or a loved one has a family history of drug or substance abuse combined with any of these physical or behavioral issues, it's time for a conversation about the symptoms and their causes.
Recognize the Signs of Opioid Abuse
Recognizing the signs of opioid abuse can save a life. If you experience these symptoms combined with the use of prescription or recreational opioids, it's time to seek help. When you notice these symptoms occurring with a friend or loved one, don't hesitate to reach out and help them find treatment.
Was this article helpful? If so, we hope you'll explore more of our blogs!
After Hours of Silence, Trump Returns to Talk About Fraud and Does Not Recognize Biden as Elected
After 16 hours of silence, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, used social media on Sunday morning, 8, to raise theses about...
KTBORDERLINE: A ROLE MODEL fOR RAP MUSIC
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What Is The Best Supplement for Stamina in Bed?
© SCRIGG, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SCRIGG®
Contact us: Scriggmagazine@gmail.com


At Zinda Law Group PLLC, our attorneys have dedicated the practice to fighting for the rights of the injured in personal injury cases, including pedestrian accidents. When a pedestrian is hit by a car, the damage to the victim can be terrible and life-threatening, and in some cases these accidents are fatal. When a fatal accident is the result, it is likely that certain relatives can file a wrongful death claim against the negligent driver who stole the future of your loved one.
For purposes of this study, a pedestrian was defined as any person who is on foot, running, walking, jogging, hiking, lying down or sitting and is involved in a motor vehicle crash.
In other cases, there can be very serious injuries, and some victims never fully recover, especially when there have been traumatic brain injuries that are difficult for medical science to solve. Some individuals recover quickly and miraculously while others may spend their lives in a coma or vegetative state, and all the in-between degrees of injury. Whatever the circumstances are in your case, it is crucial that you contact the firm at once in order to initiate legal action on your behalf.


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By Olivier Ertz et al.
Proceedings combining the extended abstracts of all contributions presented during the Open Source Geospatial Research and Education Symposium (OGRS 2012) hold in Yverdon-les-Bains, Switzerland, from October 24 to 26, 2012.
More From Olivier Ertz et al.


This debt ceiling debate is getting crazier by the day. Republicans fighting over whether to support their own leadership's plans, tea partying hobbits declaring war, and Obama lecturing us to eat our peas.
Yep. Second quarter GDP results came out, a disappointing 1.3%, less than the expected 1.9%.
Lots of scary articles on Drudge this morning. Gold is soaring, and the Dow plunged 125 points on the opening bell. Apple apparently has more cash on hand than the U.S. government. And consumer confidence at a two year low.
Oh well. It's all Bush's fault, right?


text:
Thierry FRANCOU, General Manager Strategy & Transformation, ARIANE GROUP
Thierry Francou is General Manager Strategy and Transformation -and CEO France- of Ariane Group, a world leader in access to space. He is particularly in charge to lead and accelerate the Group transformation plan through digitalization, agility, process simplification and lean mindset.
He was appointed to this position at the creation of this joint venture between Airbus and Safran in 2015, and he led the integration project of the defense and space activities contributed by these both companies.
Thierry has started his career in 1994 as Armament Corps Engineer for the French Ministry of Defense (DIrection Générale de l'Armement). He occupied various roles in the Submarine-launched Balistic Missiles M51 programmes and naval systems. In 2006 when he joined the Minister of Ecology Cabinet as Advisor to Minister for the industrial and natural risks before joining the French Embassy in Italy as Armament and Space advisor.
Thierry joined in 2010, Herakles, a Safran Group company specialized in solid propulsion, as Vice President in charge of the Space Business Unit.
Thierry is married, 50 years old and is a graduate of Ensta BRETAGNE engineering school and has a PhD in aerodynamics from Poitiers University France.


Continuez à a ppuyez sur Volume HAUT. Comment and share your favourite lyrics. Download free theme for my blackberry curve 8520. Original lyrics of Jar Of Hearts song by Christina Perri.
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Home 製品から探す 特殊金属加工( Ti、 Co- Ni). As usual I caved went picked it up: the BlackBerry Priv.
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Appuyez sur Accueil pour choisir la sélection. I truly wanted to make a quick note so as to say thanks to you for all the marvelous solutions you are placing here. Fukuoka | bringt Männer in Form: Mit vielen Tipps zu den Themen Gesundheit Fitness, Food Style und Love. Caldecott winners grade levels Valssu roshutsu rar 1 year memorial poen Keihin cv carb pilot adjusti. Relâchez le bouton Power quand vous voyez le logo Samsung, mais continuer à tenir appuyé le Volume HAUT jusqu' à ce que l' écran de récupération apparaisse. Find more of Christina Perri lyrics. Finally another BlackBerry release day yesterday.
Utilisez les touches de volume pour naviguer dans le menu et sélectionnez effacer les données réinitialisation /.


The Lo-Res family of fonts is a synthesis of pixelated designs, including Emigre's earlier coarse resolution fonts, as well as bitmap representations of Base 9. It replaces the preexisting Emigre, Emperor, Oakland and Universal families and groups these related bitmap designs under one family name in the font menu, thereby simplifying their naming and usage. The Lo-Res fonts also offer technical improvements, including a more complete character set, more consistent character shapes among styles and weights, as well as improved alignment among the various resolutions.
For more information about Lo-Res, download the free type specimen.


text:
Justin Verlander won't pitch in 2021
The General Manager of the Houston Astros, James Click, ruled out that pitcher Justin Verlander can see action in this Major League Baseball – MLB season.
Right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander will not be available to reappear this MLB season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2020.
The medical report informed the right-hander, winner of the Cy Young, that it is not recommended to return this 2021 season of the Major Leagues, since he must fully recover from his operation, taking into account that he is 38 years old.
James Click stated in December 2020 that he was hopeful that Verlander could have action at some point in the 2021 MLB season, but ultimately that will not be possible for the right-hander.
You can also read: Japan's Ohtani and Schwarber named Major League Players of the Week
In addition, the Astros' right, at the end of the 2021 MLB season, will become a free agent, which makes him more attractive and is likely to have several suitors.
Justin Verlander has a career career of 226 wins, 129 losses in 454 starts, with 3,013 strikeouts and posting a 3.33 ERA.
Until 2022! 😔
The @Astros They are not expecting Justin Verlander this season.
GM James Click noted that doctors advised the veteran, who underwent 'Tommy John' in October 2020, not to attempt a comeback that would carry "significant risk" for the future. pic.twitter.com/I2NRHX5A73
– 6-4-3 (@ 643Network) August 25, 2021
Lomachenko puts conditions on Teófimo López to face him
Clippers knock out Utah and advance to first conference final


I am an engineer and computer scientist based in San Francisco. My interests are machine learning, computer vision, optimization methods, programming languages, compilers, and high-performance computing. I guess you can say I've had a hard time staying faithful to one technical area.
I was a researcher at Microsoft Research Silicon Valley from 2007 to 2014. Prior to that I was at Microsoft Research Cambridge and a research fellow at Trinity Hall in the University of Cambridge. Since 2015 I work at Apple.
To learn more please see my publications or CV.


text:
martha rosler: crossings
Collection: New Releases, Box Sets, Compilations, Single Artist Compilations
Tags: Consumer culture, Feminism, Gender, Performance, Politics
Video Data Bank is proud to present crossings, an extensive six disc collection of video works by Martha Rosler. Spanning five decades, this essential compilation presents Rosler's unreservedly feminist, politically charged, historically vital, and ever-relevant Super 8 and video artworks. From pivotal early performances such as Semiotics of the Kitchen, to collaborations such as Born to Be Sold: Martha Rosler Reads the Strange Case of Baby $/M, and dissections of war and propaganda such as If It's Too Bad to Be True, It Could Be DISINFORMATION — this anthology presents the work of one of video art's most influential artists while simultaneously charting the cultural and technical developments of the video art medium since its inception. Accompanying the works is a newly published monograph detailing Rosler's video works, with a wide-ranging essay by film and media scholar Nora Alter.
"The subject is the commonplace — I am trying to use video to question the mythical explanations of everyday life. We accept the clash of public and private as natural, yet their separation is historical. The antagonism of the two spheres, which have in fact developed in tandem, is an ideological fiction — a potent one. I want to explore the relationships between individual consciousness, family life, and culture under capitalism."
— Martha Rosler
Pricing Information:
Additional Formats/Uses
Library Purchase - Educational License (DVD), +$650
Screening Date
Please contact info@vdb.org or visit http://www.vdb.org/content/prices-formats with any questions about the license types listed here.
Included Titles
LISTING STYLE:
Backyard Economy I
1974| 00:03:26
The first in a pair of silent Super 8 films centering on the backyard of a modest house in a coastal community of north San Diego County. The word "economy" itself was coined in relation to household…
Collections: Single Titles
Backyard Economy II (Diane Germain Mowing)
The second in a pair of silent Super 8 films centering on the backyard of a modest house in a coastal community of north San Diego County. The word "economy" itself was coined in relation to…
Semiotics of the Kitchen
From A to Z in this mock cooking-show demonstration Rosler 'shows and tells' the ingredients of the housewife's day. She offers an inventory of tools that names and mimics the ordinary with movements…
Collections: Early Video Art, Single Titles
Tags: Feminism, Gender, Language, Performance, Video History
Semiotics of the Kitchen: An Audition
In 2003, Rosler announced an open call for a live re-staging of her 1975 video Semiotics of the Kitchen, to be held at the Whitechapel Gallery in London, for A Short History of Performance, Part II.…
Vital Statistics of a Citizen, Simply Obtained
Taking aim at the social standardization enforced particularly on women's bodies, Rosler critiques the politics of "objective" or scientific evaluation that result in the depersonalization,…
Tags: Body, Feminism, Performance, Science
Flower Fields (Color Field Painting)
The low hills fronting the main California artery of Highway 5 exhibit a beautiful spectrum-like pattern, in stripes formed by the fields of flowers being grown there for commercial sale. The camera…
A budding gourmet
To the spare sounds of a Schönberg violin concerto, a silhouetted woman seated at a small tea table puts forth her reasons for wanting to become a gourmet. Photographs from glossy cookbooks and…
The East Is Red, The West Is Bending
Rosler uses the format of a cooking demonstration (as in Semiotics of the Kitchen) to address cultural transaction--the meeting of Eastern and Western cultures. Reading directly from a West Bend…
Tags: Gender, Performance, Video History
Losing: A Conversation with the Parents
Treating the problem of anorexia nervosa from the parents' perspective, Rosler presents a mother and father speaking about the tragedy of their daughter's death as a result of dieting. The…
Tags: Body, Death and Dying, Family, Feminism, Health, Performance, Video History
Domination and the Everyday
Rosler calls Domination and the Everyday, with its fragmented sounds, images, and crawling text, an artist-mother's This Is Your Life. Throughout this work, we hear—but do not see—a mother and small…
Tags: Media Analysis, Performance, Politics, Video History
Martha Rosler Reads Vogue, With Paper Tiger Television
A live performance on a public-access cable program in New York deconstructing the messages in Vogue and its advertising. The work looks at the institutional slants of the magazine industry and the…
Tags: Media Analysis
Born to Be Sold: Martha Rosler Reads the Strange Case of Baby $/M, With Paper Tiger Television
Martha Rosler tackles mainstream media's representation of the case of surrogate mother Mary Beth Whitehead. This video, made with the collective Paper Tiger Television, uncovers the class and gender…
Tags: Family, Feminism, Health, Media Analysis, Performance
A Simple Case for Torture, or How to Sleep at Night
Rosler identifies the totalitarian implications of an argument for torture, under certain circumstances, as it appears as a guest editorial in Newsweek magazine in 1982. Her critique is presented as…
Tags: Media Analysis, Performance, Politics
Secrets from the Street: No Disclosure
Reading the billboards, the cars, the people, and the graffiti of the street as cultural signs, Rosler extracts the network of social power and domination that determines whose culture gets…
Tags: Performance, Politics, Video History, Graffiti
Museums will eat your lunch
In this silent video, still images of stores and residential buildings in New York City appear within a cutout template, based on the "giftbox heap" formed by the New Museum silhouette. As these…
How Do We Know What Home Looks Like? The Unité d'Habitation of Le Corbusier at Firminy, France
Shot in Firminy-Vert, a Le Corbusier Unité, or housing project, in south-central France, this work traces the building's history through an engagement with the lives of its residents and traces of…
If it's too bad to be true, it could be DISINFORMATION
In a fusion of text and image, Rosler re-presents the NBC Nightly News and other broadcast reports to analyze their deceptive syntax and capture the confusion intentionally inserted into the news…
Tags: Media Analysis, Performance
Chile on the Road to NAFTA, Accompanied by the National Police Band
A bouncy music-video burlesque shot in and around Santiago, Chile, entwines reminders of U.S. corporate presence and of past political terror, with national and international musical strains. Chile,…
Prototype (God Bless America)
A mechanical toy figure dressed as an American soldier bends and sways, playing God Bless America — the sentimental, unofficial, and highly favored national anthem during World War II — on a bugle.…
Because This Is Britain
A visualization of phrases used by Prime Minister David Cameron during his Oxfordshire speech addressing the events of August 2011. Selected phrases emerge from the stream of his speech, punctuated…
Blumenthal/Horsfield
Martha Rosler: An Interview
Martha Rosler (b.1943) received her BA from Brooklyn College in 1965 and her MFA from the University of California, San Diego in 1974. Rosler has produced seminal works in the fields of photography,…
Collections: Interviews, On Art and Artists, Single Titles
Tags: Blumenthal/Horsfield Interviews, Film or Videomaking, Interview, Marxism, Performance


text:
Adottimo Opened AdAcademy.co.uk
Google AdSense Optimisation, Uncategorized
For quite a long time we have been whining about the support Google provides for Adsense users. As some of you may know our performance-only contracts are only available to website owners (app or other web property) with 1M page views per month and above, so we wanted to make something that gathered to the needs of smaller websites and starting publishers.
So we created AdAcademy.co.uk
The AdAcademy.co.uk is a member-based website/platform that provides the knowledge and the learning experience to make working with Adsense and other similar platforms easier. Our team is finally the go-to if you have issues with your online blog or online magazine or other content website monetized through AdSense.
We called it AdAcademy.co.uk because we look forward to launching certifications and qualifications to expand our network of professionals starting from those that have learned from us.
Not long ago we celebrated one of our client making the mark of $500,000 earned in under 6 months staring an Adsense account from $0 (see our Instagram.com/adottimo) and we took the decision that a lot more people could learn.
We don't need to say that we do not sell any get rich quick formulas just knowledge and experience built in years of hard work that has enabled us and our clients to earn significant financial returns.
So to sum up these are some of the things we will be teaching inside AdAcademy.co.uk :
Adsense Basics because after reviewing all of the official videos from Google Adsense we found there were more than a few inaccuracies and some gross mistakes or confusing elements
The truth about DFPs and how to use it
How to use mobile ads vs responsive ads
How to increase coverage
How to chose profitable niches
How to multiply pageviews
How to increase CPC (where possible)
How to increase Page RPM (where possible)
How to retain users and increase the quality of the ads on your site (which also means increasing profitability)
The importance of page speed and speed optimisation vs not harming Ad coverage
How to read the data from Adsense correctly and take decisions
What to trust in the suggestions of Google Adsense and what not
How to manage multiple Adservers (Adsesne + others)
The importance of header bidding
The importance and how to monitor and improve Active view viewable in AdSense
The difference between coverage and fill rate (Which Google calls Coverage and Ad Coverage)
How not to get your Adsense account suspended
Policy violation prevention
Really understanding of the key concepts inside the Google Adsense policy (T&Cs)
And many many other things
Go to AdAcademy.co.uk and let us know if you like this new site
July 29, 2019 /by Leo Rodriquez
https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.106/xz9.513.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Adottimo-Logo-T.-80x80.jpg 0 0 Leo Rodriquez https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.106/xz9.513.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Adottimo-Logo-T.-80x80.jpg Leo Rodriquez2019-07-29 14:33:292019-07-29 14:33:49Adottimo Opened AdAcademy.co.uk
Multivariate Testing – Preventing Type I & Type II Errors
Google AdSense Optimisation, The Google Guy
The Author is a former Partner Technology Manager, Sales Engineer and Account Manager at Google and YouTube. He is a Director & Co-Founder at Adottimo, a specialist programmatic agency based in London. He introduces Multivariate Testing as a practice of publisher revenue optimization and Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO) using the Scientific Method. He presents Multivariate testing and highlights issues which can arise from improperly constructed Multivariate tests (i.e. The Multiple Testing Problem.)
When it comes to verifying phenomenon, in order for the theory to be accepted by Scientific consensus, it has to adhere to the principles of The Scientific Method, which is the standard scientific method of deducing Objective Truth. This method of rational, verifiable, and reproducible deduction, characterized by skeptical observation and rigorous testing – rather than conformity and bias – has for several hundred years distinguished science from pseudoscience or conjecture.
Objective Truth is True, regardless of personal belief or disbelief. The methods and tools of Science are uniquely conceived to seek out and establish Objective Truth.
In this article we will be visiting Multivariate Testing using Objective Truth (i.e. the invocation of the Scientific Method.)
No one Scientific Research result is "Truth" until it is verified by other scientific results, using a different experimental method. When we have the same objective results emerging from different Scientific experiments – then we have Objective Truth! A significant characteristic of Objective Truths is that they are not later shown to be false.
Scientific testing is about using data to challenge assumptions, test new ideas and arrive at Objective Truth.
As mentioned in a previous article (The Importance of A/B Testing In Publisher Revenue Optimization [1]), the Scientific Method is and will continue to be the Gold Standard methodology for empirical knowledge acquisition for the Sciences, as has been the case for millennia.
Multivariate Testing
Multivariate testing or multinomial testing is similar to A/B testing, but may test more than two versions at the same time or use more controls. Simple A/B tests by themselves are not valid for more complex phenomena, such as observational, quasi-experimental or other non-experimental situations – as is common with survey data, offline data, and other more complex phenomena.[2]
Note that certain sorts of analysis involving Multivariate Data, such as Multiple Linear Regression and Simple Linear Regression, are not considered special cases of Multivariate testing as the analysis is of multiple variables toward the outcome of a single (univariate) variable.
You May be Running More Tests Than You Think
Consider you are designing a website and you want 5 different elements per website (header, title, different call to action buttons, etc.) and running a CRO (Conversion Rate Optimization) test.
For each of the 5 elements you will have 4 different variations (e.g. 4 different titles, 4 different call to actions buttons, etc.) Simple math will tell you that you will have 4^5 (or 1024) different scenarios to test!
Here statistics gives us a clear warning: the more variations (comparisons) you make, the higher the probability that you obtain a false significant result. As a fundamental rule for any scientific experiment you will need to establish a control for each creative. e.g. a control header, call-to-action buttons, etc.
The goal of the Multivariate test is simple: ascertain which content or creative variation produces the best improvement in the defined goals of a website, whether that be user registrations or conversion rates.
As a general rule, you will need your tests to be statistically significant. A result has statistical significance when it is very unlikely to have occurred given the Null Hypothesis [3]. Here, the Null Hypothesis is a general statement or default position that there is no relationship between two measured phenomena (i.e. the Conversion Rate is unrelated to the changes in either of the different variations) [4].
Suppose, for simplicity, that you need 400 conversions per scenario in order to ensure that the data you are collecting is statistically significant.
This translates to 1024 (variations) * 400 conversions per variation = 1024*400 = 400,000 conversions.
If your website's average conversion rate is 1% (which is ordinary), then you will need: 100*400,000 = 40,000,000 visits in order to gain confidence in your results!
If testing 1024 variations based on a simple assortment of 5 elements (header, call-to-action buttons, etc.) sounds difficult, imagine how much more complicated things get when you start adding variations in campaigns, products, offers, keywords! However, for some large companies these kinds of tests are used not just used frequently, but they are used as a normal way of determining optimal UX designs.
Companies like Amazon, Google, Netflix, Facebook and others employ multivariate testing extensively.
Sample Multivariate Test from Amazon – Variation 1
Some Fundamental Statistical Hypothesis Testing Terms
In statistics, the probability of Type II Error (false negative) is denoted by beta (β). Usually, increasing the sample size of your test will prevent type II error from happening.
Alpha (α) denotes the probability of Type I Error (false positive). You typically construct your test to keep it at a significance level of 5% to minimize the possibility of type I errors.
The 5% significance level means that if you declare a winner in your test (reject the null hypothesis), then you have a 95% chance that you are correct in doing so. It also means that you have significant result difference between the control and the variation with a 95% "confidence."
Multiple Testing Issues
Let's begin with some elementary definitions:
When conducting a two-tailed test that compares two conversion rates of the control (ρ1) and the conversion rate for the variation (ρ2), your hypothesis would be:
Null hypothesis: Η0: ρ1 = ρ2
Alternative hypothesis: Η1: ρ1 ≠ ρ2
Type I Error – Rejecting the null hypothesis (Η0) when it is true.
Type II Error –Rejecting the alternative hypothesis (Η1) when it is true. In other words, failing to reject the null hypothesis (Η0) when it is false.
To describe this more simply, a Type I Error is to falsely infer the existence of something that is not there (e.g. raising a false alarm with no danger in sight or put in other terms "crying wolf" with no wolf in sight.)
Depiction of Type I Error (False Positive) – False alarm – just a Sheep in a Wolf's clothing
A Type II Error is to falsely infer the absence of something that is there (e.g. failing to correctly raise an alarm in the presence of danger, i.e. failing to cry "wolf!" when a wolf is present.)
Depiction of Type II Error (False Negative) – There's a Wolf among the Sheep
If the significance level for a given experiment is α, the experiment-wise significance level will increase exponentially (significance decreases) as the number of tests increases. More precisely, assuming all tests are independent, if n tests are performed, the experiment-wise significance level will be given by [6]:
P(TypeIError)=1-(1-α)^n
Where n is the number of variations in a test. So for a test that contains 10 different variations and a significance level of 5% (n equal 10 and alpha 0.05), the overall type I error increases to:
1-(1-0.05)^10 ≈ 0.40 or 40%!
In other words, you're more likely to get a better result using a coin toss!
Probability of Receiving at Least on Type I Error with n Different Variations, alpha = 0.05
Note that within 135 variations, the possibility of obtaining at least one Type I Error is 99.9% (using a 5% significance level.) With the CRO example stated previously (with 1024 variations) the probability of obtaining at least one Type I Error is 1 (100%)!
Solutions to the Multiple Testing Problem
Possibly some of the simplest solutions that work for a limited number of comparisons is using statistical methods of correction for multiple testing.
These include methods such as Bonferroni correction – which is used to counteract the problems arising from multiple comparisons. Bonferroni correction methods rely on the statistical adjustment of confidence intervals – alpha values (α)– and p-values to prevent Type I errors. The Benjamini–Hochberg procedure (BH step-up procedure) controls the False Discovery Rate (FDR) at level α. These methods rely on some statistical adjustments made to p-values with the goal of reducing the chances of obtaining false-positive results. These methods are quite technical, so we won't elaborate on the formulas used to derive them.
A far simpler approach is to reduce the number of iterations being tested to a level appropriate to deduce a statistically significant result given the sample size. As discussed earlier, companies of the scale of Google, Amazon, Netflix and Facebook are able to run experiments using enormous sample sizes, so they are able to conduct multivariate testing using statistically significant samples.
Use of Multivariate Models
Statistics is a very advanced field. It has existed for hundreds of years, and the problems we encounter today have been similarly faced by some of the greatest minds of antiquity.
There are at least 18 different well established multivariate analysis models in the field of Statistics that are frequently used today [7].
There are numerous Multivariate analysis models, each with its own method of analysis. As an example Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) extends the analysis of variance to cover cases where there is more than one dependent variable to be analyzed simultaneously. It establishes the relationships between dependent and independent variables. This is an extension of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) – which is used for univariate analysis. Another similar model for multivariate analysis is Multivariate Analysis of Covariance (MANCOVA). An advantage of the MANCOVA design over the simpler MANOVA model is the 'factoring out' of noise or error that has been introduced by the covariant [7].
Closing Remarks on Multivariate Testing
Introduce variations which are more radical departures to the control. This limits the number of variations and the possibility of obtaining issues arising from the multivariate testing problems mentioned above.
Don't change too many factors at the same time. The more variations you add to your test the higher your chances of obtaining both Type I and Type II Errors. As seen previously, the possibility of obtaining a Type I Error increases exponentially as the number of variations tested increases. By the 45th variation, there is a 90% chance of obtaining at least one Type I Error (using an alpha value of 0.05.) This increases to a 99% chance of obtaining at least one Type I Error with 90 variations.
Increasing the sample size is always a good strategy for reducing both Type I and Type II Errors.
Keep it Simple. There is no tangible benefit in unnecessarily increasing the number of variations tested unless you are doing so in accordance with Statistically sound theory. Otherwise you'll obtain misleading results which are not considered Statistically sound or Statistically significant. As mentioned, statistics is a very developed field and there are several means of performing scientifically sound multivariate analysis tests.
Formulate the correct hypothesis. Whether rejection of the null hypothesis truly justifies acceptance of the research hypothesis depends on the structure of the hypotheses. Rejecting the hypothesis that a large paw print originated from a bear does not immediately prove the existence of Bigfoot! Hypothesis testing emphasizes the rejection, which is based on a probability, rather than the acceptance, which requires extra steps of logic.
[1] The Importance of A/B Testing In Publisher Revenue Optimization, Adottimo, 2018.
[2] AB Testing, Wikipedia Online Encyclopedia
[3] Sirkin, R. Mark (2005). "Two-sample t tests". Statistics for the Social Sciences (3rd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, Inc. pp. 271–316. ISBN 1-412-90546-X.
[4] Everitt, Brian (1998). The Cambridge Dictionary of Statistics. Cambridge University Press, UK. ISBN 0521593468.
[5] Peter Heinrich, A/B Testing Case Study: Air Patriots and the Results That Surprised Us, Amazon Developer Portat, Appstore Blogs.
[6] Multiple Hypothesis Testing and False Discovery Rate,University of California, Berkeley, Department of Statistics.
[7] Multivariate Statistics, Wikipedia Online Encyclopedia
October 31, 2018 /by Tangus Koech
https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.106/xz9.513.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ab_multivariate_testing.png?time=1610873332 346 773 Tangus Koech https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.106/xz9.513.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Adottimo-Logo-T.-80x80.jpg Tangus Koech2018-10-31 12:13:092019-01-04 17:22:08Multivariate Testing - Preventing Type I & Type II Errors
The Importance of A/B Testing in Publisher Revenue Optimisation
Google AdSense Optimisation
The Author is former Partner Technology Manager, Sales Engineer and Account Manager at Google and YouTube. He is a Director & Co-Founder at Adottimo, a specialist programmatic agency based in London. He presents A/B testing as a practice of publisher revenue optimization, which brings the field more inline with a broader evidence-based practice approach. He presents a few examples of why A/B testing important in publisher revenue optimization using case studies from companies such as Google and Netflix.
I come from an Engineering (Electronic/Electrical), IT, Telecom and FinTech background, so my approach to publisher optimization tends to be scientific, specifically based on the "Scientific Method" – the most prevalent form of evidence based empirical testing used in the natural sciences. The Scientific Method has withstood the test of time, remained The Gold Standard empirical method of knowledge acquisition, and led the rapid development of natural science (in every natural scientific field) since at least the 17th century.
In some cases, many assumptions are made in online Publisher Revenue Optimization that take into account preferences, comparison with traditional print and TV media industry, etc., as an approach to publisher revenue optimization. Although those with sufficient experience are able to deduce specific themes, general best practice, etc. from extensive experience, to be most effective A/B testing should be performed continuously and the companies cited in this article use A/B testing as an ongoing process.
Publisher Revenue optimization has very simple goals, such as: "Which are the best performing Ad Unit sizes for this viewport size?", "Do Responsive ad units actually increase my earnings?", "Does Dynamic Allocation actually increase my revenue yield?" or some slightly complex ones "What is the Optimal Min CPM for this ad unit in AdX?". However, the questions are never ambiguous – since the motives are usually simple – "Does this make me more money!?" Luckily enough the answer to the last question is always binary.
This article is a guide (introduction) to those with limited experience in the field, or even the more initiated who are not yet convinced in the value of A/B testing. It provides some context using examples for why this type of empirical data acquisition/correlation inference – which in the context of publisher revenue optimisation tends to mostly be A/B testing – is important. This article is intended for a broad audience – if you're receiving under a few million pageviews/month, or receiving hundreds of millions, technical or non-technical, business focused or not, the case studies apply regardless.
Modern Era – Why Should we Care?
Case Study 1: Google Search Ads
I'll begin with a simple anecdotal and well known story involving Google's former outspoken VP for Search, Marissa Mayer (employee Number 20 and Google's first female engineer)[4] who later became President & CEO of Yahoo!
Marissa Mayer, then Vice President of Google Search Products and User Experience (the former "gatekeeper" of the Google Homepage), famously led a Google test which generated $200M in revenue per year for Google using simple A/B testing only [4]
This test involved testing 41 different shades of blue advertising links in Gmail and Google search – and measuring which links and variations of different shades of blue generated the highest Click Through Rates (CTRs), and hence, revenue.
As trivial as color choices might seem, clicks are a key part of Google's revenue stream, and anything that enhances clicks means more money.
Google set the color of the blue links according to the then highest CTR variation and were then able to generate an extra $200m a year in revenue from this single A/B testing experiment only!
According to a statement in The Guardian by then Google UK MD, Dan Cobley[4]:
"As a result we learned that a slightly purpler shade of blue was more conducive to clicking than a slightly greener shade of blue, and gee whizz, we made a decision."
When measuring empirically verifiable phenomenon, the facts cannot be disputed. A scientifically sound and statistically significant A/B test on, as in the previous example, which color link produces a higher CTR, is extremely difficult to disprove. Each of the 40 variations was tested from a statistically significant sample size of 2.5% of the Google's user's base – millions of people per variation!
Context on Google's Advertising Scale:
Alphabet (Google's Parent company) is the largest "media company" in the World (by Advertiser Revenue), with over €81.97 Billion of earnings in 2017 from Media spend, ahead of 2nd place Comcast (€72.64 Billion), and 3rd place The Walt Disney Company (€50.26 Billion.)[9]
An A/B Test is a controlled experiment which tests two variants (variant A, vs variant B), to measure the change (difference/delta) in the value of a metric (or variable). This metric may be (for instance in the Online Publishing industry): CTR rate, Pageviews, Sessions per user, Bounce Rate, etc. One of the variants (say variant A, is used as a control.)
In the case of the Google example cited earlier, the metric tested was the change in CTRs and the 40 different variants tested (in separate tests) were the different hues of blue advertising links. This a form of statistical hypothesis testing or "two-sample hypothesis testing" as used in the field of statistics[5]. Experimenters can utilize the Scientific Method to form a hypothesis of the sort "If a specific change is introduced, will it improve key metrics?", evaluate their test with real users, and obtain empirically verifiable results.
A Harvard Business Review article in 2017, Titled "The Surprising Power of Online Experiments" stated The Major leading IT companies, Google, Amazon, Booking.com, Facebook, and Microsoft – each conduct more than 10,000 online controlled experiments annually, with many tests engaging millions of users [5]. Having worked within Google, I can say that their experiments can involve up-to Billions of users! It also goes on to mention Start-ups and large companies without digital roots, such as Walmart, Hertz, and Singapore Airlines, also run them regularly, though on a smaller scale. These organizations have discovered that an "experiment with everything" approach has surprisingly large payoffs[5].
As another example, in 2000, Google initially used A/B test to ascertain the optimal number of Search Engine Results to show per page. A/B tests have become vastly more complex since the early days with mulitvariable/multinomial testing becoming the norm.
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Case Study 2: Netflix
In a popular case cited by DZone, 46% of respondents surveyed by Netflix said that making titles of Netflix content available to browse was the 1 thing they wanted to know before signing up for the service. So, Netflix decided to run an A/B test on their registration process to see if a redesigned registration process will help increase subscriptions.
Netflix Survey
Netflix created the new design which displayed movie titles to visitors before registration. The Netflix team wanted to find out if the new design with movie titles would generate more registrations compared to the original design without the titles, as users had requested. This was analyzed by running an A/B test between the new designs against the original design.
The Test's Hypothesis was straightforward: Allowing visitors to view available movie titles before registering will increase the number of new signups.
In the A/B test the team introduced 5 different variants against the original design. The team then ran the test to see the impact.
The original design consistently beat all challengers. Completely contrary to what 46% of visitors were requesting!
So, why did the original design beat all new designs although 46% of visitors said that seeing what titles Netflix carries will persuade them to sign up for the service?
We know that demonstrating value early in the onboarding process is a fundamental principle in the onboarding process. So how is it that one of the most data driven companies in Silicon Valley doesn't do this?
Netflix attributes the success of the original design vs the variants as follows:
1) "Don't confuse the meal with the menu."
"Netflix is all about the experience," says Anna Blaylock, a Product Designer at Netflix wondered this too when she first started at the company. Just as a restaurant dining experience isn't solely about the food on the menu, Netflix's experience isn't just about the titles[8].
2) Simplify Choices
Each of the variants built for the tests increased the number of choices and possible paths for Netflix visitors to follow. The original only had one choice: Start Your Free Month. Blaylock says that the low barrier to entry outweighs the need for users to see all their content before signing up.
3) Users Don't Always Know What They Want
While survey had shown that 46% of users wanted to browse titles before signing up for Netflix, the tests proved otherwise. Testing reveals our assumptions. That's why it's so important to run tests and trust the data.
Anna Blaylock left her interviewers with a good quote:
"Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won't come in"– Isaac Asimov
Case Study 3: Microsoft – Bing
The Harvard Business Review article (cited earlier [5]) attributes about 80% of proposed changes at Bing are first run as controlled experiments [5].
It highlights as a first case that in 2012 a Microsoft employee working on Bing had an idea about changing the way the search engine displayed ad headlines. Developing it wouldn't require much effort—just a few days of an engineer's time— but as with a company of that scale – it was one of hundreds of ideas proposed.
This is something at the time the program managers deemed it a low priority. So it languished for more than six months, until an engineer, who saw that the cost of writing the code for it would be small, launched a simple A/B test—to assess its impact. Within hours the new headline variation was producing abnormally high revenue, triggering a "too good to be true" alert.
These alerts are usually used in Companies of the scale of Microsoft for detecting when something goes terribly wrong (or very right) – it's a form of anomaly detection. Usually, such alerts signal a bug, but not in this case. An analysis showed that the change had increased revenue by an appreciable 12%—which on an annual basis would come to more than $100 million in the United States alone —without hurting key user-experience metrics! It was the best revenue-generating idea in Bing's history, but until the test its value was underappreciated [5].
The article mentions that "Microsoft's Analysis & Experimentation team consists of more than 80 people who on any given day help run hundreds of online controlled experiments on various products, including Bing, Cortana, Exchange, MSN, Office, Skype, Windows, and Xbox."[5]
Miltivariate Testing
Multivariate testing or multinomial testing is similar to A/B testing, but may test more than two versions at the same time or use more controls. Simple A/B tests are not valid for observational, quasi-experimental or other non-experimental situations, as is common with survey data, and other, more complex phenomena [7]. Such cases are more likely to draw "incorrect results" using seemingly "sound math", but the wrong formulas!
Note that simple linear regression and multiple regression, are not usually considered to be special cases of multivariate statistics because the analysis is dealt with by considering the (univariate) conditional distribution of a single outcome variable given the other variables. Multivariate statistics already has more than 18 well established models each with its own analysis.
Closing Remarks on A/B testing
I was fortunate to have personally met Marissa Meyer (then Vice President of Google Search Products and User Experience), I've learned a lot of lessons from her legacy, worked with some of her Product Managers at Google, worked with publishers of all sizes and strategic importance in Google's Publisher team, as well as learn first-hand and on the job from a number of really top-notch coaches – some of the best in the world at Publisher Optimization.
The cases presented are lessons that serve as a non-technical overview to A/B testing, which is part of a larger publisher growth strategy. We understand that every business is unique and has different goals and objectives, skills and resources, budgets and audience.
Google's Parent Company Alphabet is now and has been for at least 2 years, the largest "media" company in the World (by Advertiser Revenue), with over €81.97 Billion of earnings in 2017 from Media spend, ahead of 2nd place Comcast (€72.64 Billion), and 3rd place The Walt Disney Company (€50.26 Billion.) A breakdown on the earnings per company are available on this Statista Report.
As more and more advertising budgets are moving online it is increasingly important (especially for traditionally offline publishers) to focus on growing your online publisher revenues. However, it requires more sophisticated approaches (Programmatic RTB, Dynamic Allocation, Preferred Deals, Private Auctions, etc.) in addition to just A/B and Multivariate testing.
If you have read this post so far and are in the publishing business, we would love to hear from you. Please feel free to visit our website to contact us for a preliminary consultation.
Tangus Koech
Tangus is a former Partner Technology Manager, Sales Engineer and Account Manager at Google and YouTube. He is a Director & Co-Founder at Adottimo, a specialist programmatic agency based in London.
During his last year in Google he managed very strategic media technology partners which contributed additional revenue of over US$ 700 Million in YouTube Advertising revenue annually, based in the US, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, France and Netherlands – amongst Google's highest revenue generating countries.
Tangus earned his stars as a monetisation expert during nearly 7 years at Google, working with publishers in both Developed and Emerging Markets. He made amongst the first Million-Dollar publishers in the African continent.
He is a Programmatic Expert in Google AdSense, DFP and AdX. Within Alphabet GOOG (NASDAQ), Google's Parent Company, Tangus' team – the Partner Solutions Organization – was responsible for accounts which collectively generated approximately 90% of all Alphabet's Google/YouTube publisher revenue.
Some of his partners include WPP Group plc (UK), Opera Software ASA (Norway), Vodafone Group (UK), Orange Group SA (France), Endemol B.V. (International), GfK (Germany & Benelux), Intage (Japan). In Emerging Markets he has managed accounts for, among others, Comcast NBCUniversal (International), DStv (South Africa), eNews Channel Africa (eNCA, South Africa), Nation Media Group (Kenya), Standard Media Group (Kenya.)
[1] "Ancient Egyptian Medicine", Wikipedia Online Encyclopedia
[2]"Edwin Smith papyrus (Egyptian medical book)". Encyclopedia Britannica (Online ed.). Retrieved 1 January 2016.
[3] "Edwin Smith papyrus", Wikipedia Online Encylopedia
[4] "Why Google has 200m reasons to put engineers over designers", The Guardian News and Media Limited, 5th February 2014.
[5] "The Surprising Power of Online Experiments", Harvard Business Review, September-October 2017 Edition.
[6] "Encyclopedia of Machine Learning and Data Mining" (PDF), Kohavi, Ron; Longbotham, Roger (2017). "Online Controlled Experiments and A/B Tests". In Sammut, Claude; Webb, Geoff. Springer.
[7] "A/B Testing", Wikipedia Online Encyclopedia
[8] "The Registration Test Results Netflix Never Expected", DZone, Kendrick Wang, January 4th 2016
[9] "Premium Leading media companies in 2017, based on revenue (in billion euros)", Statista
June 19, 2018 /by Adottimo Team
https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.106/xz9.513.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ab-testing-app-conversion-increase-1.png?time=1610873332 384 576 Adottimo Team https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.106/xz9.513.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Adottimo-Logo-T.-80x80.jpg Adottimo Team2018-06-19 10:17:212018-09-13 02:57:59The Importance of A/B Testing in Publisher Revenue Optimisation
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This lesson will show you how to build a simple Contract Variation form. The form will have the works to be varied, the amount the variation will cost, Tax inclusive or not, and a signature from the client.
Our form will have three questions and a signature.
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Click New Question and give the question a name, type any additional detail needed to answer the question, select the Mandatory box if the question must be answered before continuing and select multi-line text for question type. The "Template Field Code" is the merge code used to identify this field inside a document template.
This question is not mandatory and the type is number.
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