I have always enjoyed watching this drama TV series about medical interns. It was so popular back in the mid 2000's and I was really hooked into it. First came McDreamy and then McDog and then came McSteamy. :D And it is being run here on TNT series and because the husband enjoys watching, I find myself watching it too. There are some scenes that I have already forgotten and it was kind of nice to watch them again.
Original cast of Grey's Anatomy.
I loved how each character developed, how they cope with the very busy world of being interns and how they resolve their personal conflicts. I laughed and cried and have gone through a roller coaster and whilrwind of emotions with Meredith, Issy, George, Alex and Christina.
I love it most when they don their sky blue scrubs... Everytime they are in their scrubs, they are really serious at giving it their best. And who could ever forget Dr. Burke's personalized scrub hats? I am not a medical person but they really do justice to their roles. And even though the medical cases are almost out of this world, you couldn't help but think of all the what ifs.
Now it is running on its 10th season.. Gosh, I have a lot of catching up to do!
Do you love going to the sauna or steam baths? I for one am fond of them. After a good workout at the gym, I try to hit the sauna as much as I can... It is just the perfect thing to do to loosen up those tense muscles and to end the day. I also visit the steam baths whenever we go swimming at the indoor pool in Ludwigsburg Stadion Bad.
These hot baths offer a lot of health benefits. Here are some of the popular hot baths, how hot they can be and the health benefits it brings.
SAUNA. Gives your skin a rosy glow.
Imagine desert climate. In the dry air temperatures rule between 60 and 95 degrees Celcius. During the first of maximum three entries (8 minutes) into the sauna, lay on the lower or middle bench (favorable for an even temperature distribution). Sit up two minutes before the end of each entry to help regulate blood circulation. Then go out to cool down. Allow 20 minutes in between entries to relax and cool down.
What it brings: Blood circulation increases, and skin metabolism works twice as fast as otherwise. The result: the skin on your entire body becomes firm and rosy.
Moderate temperature of 45 degrees. But the very high air humidity/moisture of almost 100% heats it up. Highly recommended for those experiencing dry mucous membranes. After 10 to 15 minutes of sitting on the marble bench in a steam bath is the skin moist-warm and firm. Then go out and take a shower and into a cold pool. Bundle up warm to allow sweating, then go inside again.
What it brings: The moist warmth deeply penetrating into the tissue ensures better blood circulation in the musculature, joints and organs. Ideal for all who suffer lumbago and rheumatism. Because the steam penetrates deeply into the bronchial tubes and lungs, the steam bath also helps prevent colds and flu.
This is a circulation sparing sauna alternative with a temperature of up to 60 degrees and a humidity of 45%, pleasant and bearable even for people with hypertension. Duration: about 20 minutes.
What it brings: High comfort and well-being, ideal for sauna beginners.
Relax like the Romans of ancient times, with the pleasant warmth of 55 degrees emanating from the walls, floors, seats and resting surfaces slowly enters the body. After 15 minutes, the body begins to sweat.
What it brings: Stress reduction. Through detoxification, the skin feels soft and nourished.
The highlight of a Turkish steam bath: one lies on a large, warm marble block and the Tellak (an oriental bath attendant) lathers and kneads the tired body and at the end, souse him with warm water.
What it brings: Through the lathering and scrubbing with brush and towels results an intensive peeling effect, removing all impurities from the skin. Tensed muscles loosen up.
In a room of 40 degrees and low humidity, each body area is applied with various healing clay, which is rubbed gently onto the skin in a circular manner. Herbal steam opens the pores. Duration: around 20 minutes. Afterwards, the residue is washed and dried off with a hand towel for that peeling effect.
What it brings: The connective tissues are tightened, the skin purified and detoxified.
There's this old English adage that says, "An apple a day keeps the doctor away."
This is indeed TRUE and even scientists know this. The soluble fiber in apples helps reduce intestinal disorders. The pectin helps reduce cholesterol levels. It's packed with Vitamin C, A and flavonoids and is a source of potassium that helps promote heart health. It can help reduce skin diseases and helps in weight management. Not only this! An apple contains 80 kcal of energy, enough energy for you to do a 20-minute exercise in the morning to jump start your day. It helps to keep you fit!
On most days, we dream about summer evenings with family and friends, chilling or having a grill party in the garden, terrace or balcony. There is just something in the open air that is relaxing and very conducive for open talk. Wouldn't it be nice to have an outdoor extension of your living room?
1. How big is your outdoor space? Is it as big as a sprawling garden or small like a snug balcony? It is essential to choose garden furniture that will complement the size of your ourdoor space. You also need to consider the number of people who will be using it and for which purpose. Would you like it to be multi-functional, to be used both by kids and adults alike? An extendable rectangular table will be perfect for parties where you expect a large number of guests. Storage benches are perfect for storing cushions, blankets and kids toys.
Metal garden furniture with a parasol is perfect for your garden.
2. What type of material would you like your outdoor furniture to be? Whether wood, metal or woven, each type of material is unique in itself and will require some level of maintenance.
Wood is probably the most loved material when it comes to furniture because it lends warmth and it ages beautifully. One must however treat wooden furniture with care to prevent it from drying out and rotting. Re-glazing and sanding your wooden furniture may be required every now and then.
Metal is robust and can stand any weather condition. It is durable, rust-free and requires low maintenance. So if you want furniture that can stand the bitter cold of winter and the scorching heat of summer, then metal furniture would be a good choice. And because it can be bent and shaped, there are many possible designs to choose from: from contemporary to Victorian, from elegant to sleek lines.
Woven material is perfect for gardens because it blends almost perfectly with shrubbery and plants. Depending on the material, the type of maintenance needed also varies. Woven furniture from resin material usually require lesser maintenance as they are easier to clean while woven furniture from rattan or natural fibres may require some treatment every now and again. Regardless of the material, they are perfect for outdoor use and can stand any weather condition.
3. Breath life into your outdoor space. Customize it by adding a few personal touches. Lighting will always add to the ambience that you want to create. Parasols will help to protect you from the sun's harmful rays. A gazebo is perfect for BBQ parties and can offer protection from those summer showers or provide privacy for an utter relaxation. Adding some cushions into your garden furniture will bring the comfort of the indoors out. You can also add some decking to section off an area for lounging or to just up the look of your balcony.
So there you have it! And who says you can't have an outdoor party in these wet and gloomy autumn days? With the right garden furniture and additional personal touches, you still can enjoy your outdoor space the whole year round.
If you have a carpet at home, be it oriental, synthetic fibre, or wool, chances are it will get dirty and stained on with the passing of time, especially if you have kids running about. Sometimes, it is easier to just replace them when they are too worn out and dirty. Sometimes, it is also a good idea to have them cleaned by professionals to restore it to its early glory especially if the carpet is very expensive. But you can save your valuable carpet too by cleaning it yourself.
Most home cleaning products can be used: baking soda, detergent, wine vinegar, hot water, ammonia. You steam iron and vacuum cleaner and lots of dish towels will help to clean and wipe off these stains too.
My little helper... she loves to vacuum the carpet.
It's pretty simple really. First clean your carpet to remove dust and other easily removable dirt with your vacuum cleaner. Then spray on a mixture of 1 part ammonia and 1 part hot water unto the stained area. Lay a dishtowel unto the sprayed area and iron away. You'll find that the stain is transfered on to towel. Repeat a few times if the stain is still there.
You can also use non-bleach detergent or wine vinegar mixed in water to remove water-soluble stains such as juice, cola, ice cream or latex paint.
Of course it is always a good idea to blot the stained spot while it is still fresh so you don't run the risk of letting the spill soak through to the carpet pad. Dry the carpet from the outside in. Never ever scrub the carpet, otherwise you risk ruining the carpet fibers.
When all else fails, you can always call the professionals. Choose the ones that use eco-friendly products and techniques, like Green Choice Carpet Cleaning. That way you are able to help mother Earth.
After the captivating Flamenco show, we decided to go for a walk near the beach area. I was still a bit giddy from the cava (Spanish sparkling wine) that we had while watching the dance and the walk helped evaporate the alcohol so to speak.
At the pedestrian bridge in Port Vell, Barcelona.
Hubby and I found ourselves walking towards the Port Vell and then on to Barceloneta beach. It was a Friday evening so it was teeming locals and tourists alike. The port reminded me of dear Yokohama, filled with yachts, shops and restaurants. We did a little sightseeing and a little shopping until our feet got tired and our bellies began to grumble from hunger.
CavaMar Restaurant and Tapas Bar is located along Barceloneta Beach.
There was a vast selection of restaurants on the beach front and since we didn't make any reservations for dinner, we decided on CavaMar, a restaurant and tapas bar that we found along Barceloneta Beach.
It was a bit full but we were lucky to have found a table. We ordered a bottle of white wine and a platter of seafoods. While waiting for our food, we were served a small basket of bread and some olives to munch on.
It must have been the wine but I found myself very light and happy. I was very talkative too and must have blabbed on and on about my thesis topic to my husband who found it sweet, endearing and funny to witness the state that I am in. Hehe!
I guess it has also been a while since Hubby and I really went out on a date without having to rush with our food while looking out for the little one so it was a very refreshing experience for us. The atmosphere at the restaurant was a mixture of subdued and lively conversations, and the cool evening breeze from the beach added to the ambience.
We didn't expect our platter of seafood to be very huge! It made a lot of sense why hubby ordered just one dish. :) It consisted of a large crab, different kinds of shells, big shrimps, and fish steaks. It was lightly spiced and seasoned just the way I want and I ate to my heart's content.
I had to eat most of the crab since hubby was allergic so that I was so full and very light headed by the time we finished dinner. We then walked a bit more along the beach before heading back to our hotel.
Then go to the next party you are invited to wearing a sleek sterling silver cuff. Or liven up your everyday outfit with a cuff. I am sure your office mates can't help but notice this chic addition to your wardrobe. Cuffs can instantly punch up any kind of outfit, no matter how simple it may be.
ridged rows and a hinged closure.
Cuffs come in different designs: from bold to sleek to ridged. They may be of leather, silver, metal or gold. They can be worn either on the wrist or on the arm. You can use two matching cuffs like Wonder Woman or Daenerys Targaryen does or use it to adorn just one arm as most Hollywood celebrities are wont to do. Although cuffs are not everybody's favorite kind of accessory, they definitely go well with evening wear.
If you are visiting Barcelona or any city in Spain for that matter, one of the best cultural experiences is watching a flamenco performance. So on our recent visit to Barcelona, we went to go see one on our first night. It was at the Tablao Flamenco Cordobes, located in La Rabla one of the the busiest parts of the city. And it was indeed a very memorable experience!
I booked days ahead for this performance so we can get a good seat. We chose the Afternoon Show for 5:45 PM so we still have time to explore the city later. :D We were all given a glass of cava so we can enjoy the show whilst drinking.
A date with my husband in Barcelona.
As the lights dim and the noise settled down inside the Tablao, I can't help but feel the excitement and awe growing in the audience. The music, the rhythm of the dancing shoes and hands, the clinking of the castanets and the beautiful voice and graceful dancers all mix together to create a very vibrant and mesmerizing performance. Although I do not understand the lyrics in the songs, you can feel the intensity of the emotions of the dancers as they interpret the music and the story. For me, it was a very passionate, intense and mesmerizing... indeed a beautiful experience of Barcelona.
We weren't allowed to take photos and videos during the performace except for the last five minutes so we only had a few photos taken. I guess it is in itself a good thing so you get to really enjoy the show instead of being preoccupied with your camera to get that good shot.
After a little over an hour, we left Tablao Flamenco Cordobes very happy and filled with excitement on the coming days. I have a feeling that the city of Barcelona has a lot more beautiful and exciting things to offer. We have just been to one.
Interested in watching a flamenco performance while in Barcelona? You can find more information on the Tablao Flamenco Cordobes website at www.tablaocordobes.com.
The days are getting colder and we can feel it in the chill of the crisp morning breeze. Soon the leaves will turn red, orange and gold, the trees will soon shed their leaves but autumn is still a good way to become green.
1. Buy green. Choose products that are environment friendly. If you have a home office, opt to buy eco-friendly office supplies. Although you may have heard it a thousand times, always recycle! What do you do with those tons of paper that's been printed on one side? You can use the other side for just about anything: notes, as sketch paper for your little ones to draw on, to print your drafts on. Once both sides are used up, you can collect them again to be sent to recycling facilities.
2. Keep the bills down this cold season. Instead of turning up the heat, grab a sweater. Improve your knitting or crocheting skills by making a throw. If there's no one in the house, then by all means turn off your heater. Or better yet, get a programmable thermostat so you're only heating the house when everybody is at home.
3. Walk! The cold is always a good excuse to get into the car to make a trip to the groceries but try to minimize this one. Walking is a healthy routine that you should not miss except on days when the roads are really dangerous to thread on. The cool crisp air and the foliage is something to be enjoyed while they last.
Pumpkins of different shapes, sizes and color for your Halloween decor.
4. With the fall season comes Halloween. If you are decorating your home for the halloween, opt for the natural and non-commercial. Buy locally grown pumpkins to be used as gourds and jack-o-lanterns. Use recycled paper to decorate your windows. Be creative and you will have a nicely decorated home with no extra spending.
5. What to do with all those fallen leaves? Collect them and compost them. Once the spring season comes, you will have your own organic fertilizer to enrich your garden soil. You can also use the leaves as fuel if you have a fireplace. These leaves make good decorations too!


Nokia traditionally pays no attention to all latest-and-greatest trends in the mobile industry, specifically the hype around "slim-n-sleek" devices, when some are ready to throw functionalities and a part of the common sense away to get the casing thinner. But for Nokia it is experience what really does matter – therefore, they rely on ratio between various aspects, from design and hardware filling to software. Nokia 6300, just like any of its 6000-series monoblock-shaped siblings, should sport the optimal price/quality ratio; and don't be deceived with the marketologists' so-called truths that Nokia has engaged in the race for the slimmest-gadget-ever – this is definitely not the case. Nokia does foster plans to launch very portable solutions, yet reaching either extreme in terms of size is a non-value-added way and they do realize that.
However Nokia 6300 is rooted not in the modern age – as a matter of fact it's a reincarnation of the top selling Nokia 6100 that arrived in the market early in 2003. There is a little to doubt about – these two models share almost the same strategies in marketing and positioning, but differ in the sense of casing's thickness, which is highlighted more for the 6300. The target audiences for Nokia 6100 and Nokia 6300 are pretty much the same – men and women with more or less equal ratio for either model, who are want to acquire a fair feature-pack (they call it "modern" and by that mean player, radio and crisp display), eye-candy design and, more importantly, an eye-picking brand on the phone for reasonable money. Relying on this audience is not a miscalculation – the way Nokia 6300 is positioned has been proven by the experience of the prior offerings, thus give a warm welcome to a new Nokia's bestseller.
Another thing that gives us the right to call the 6300 the successor to Nokia 6100, apart from positioning, is its size – previously we saw 102x44x13.5 mm on the 6100, and today a slightly bigger 106.4х43.6х13.1 mm is what you can experience with the 6300, which doesn't really make any difference, but at the end of the day Nokia 6300 appears to be thinner due to being only 13 mm deep at the display area, whereas the keypad block is slimmer, measuring a hint less than 12 mm. Such uneven thickness distribution is nothing new, though – some other Nokia-branded solutions sport the same peculiarities, for example Nokia 3230. But getting back to the 6300, such approach to the design is not a coincidence, for the developers wanted to make it gain some resemblance with sliders that would boost the handset's image and looks.
As for the negative experience of Nokia 6100 usage, there were some complaints about the plastic quality, the back cover reliability and the painting. Basically what they would have overlooked on less popular and demanded devices was the sticking point for the 6100 and created certain issues with post-sale service and built up a somewhat negative image of the product. Nevertheless such feedback didn't affect the sales much, but even at this rate they were taken account of by Nokia. As a result, for the very first time in its class, Nokia 6300 retains metal details, specifically the battery cover, made of stainless steel, and the front-panel. And this is another indirect evidence that the handset will be produced in great amounts and eventually will top the charts. That is why more trims are probably to come – there is no way they will let only the black plastic and metal be on the market all alone. I think a bit later Nokia will release a device painted in black from head to toes and maybe a blue- or red-colored edition.
The glossy plastic used in the 6300 is good; in fact it is similar to that found in Sony Ericsson T610i. Even though it draws scratches and finger-prints, they are not too prominent, unless you start examining it, of course. The metal is exposed to wear and tear as well – first grazes appear in a week's time, but you won't stumble upon them at first. Overall, all surfaces of this kind suffer from the same "illness" – Nokia N91 is not an exception with is battery cover.
Weighting only 94 grams, the 6300 fits in hands pretty well and can be carried in any desired fashion. The handset is easy to use, yet retains a number of shortcomings in ergonomics. In light of the face it makes use of dual-interface layout, on Sony Ericsson's "advice", dedicated volume keys have been moved to the right side in most phones. This proves to be handy when this key doubles as zoom-button in camera mode. However since Nokia 6300 houses only a single side-mounted key, specifically the volume rocker key, why would they need to relocate it to the right? To blindly follow up the trend? But it is not convenient, and due to being hard-to-push and placed quite deep inside the casing, this key won't make the user very happy.
The set of functional keys is one level above the numeric keypad – all buttons are handy, this goes especially for the navigation key and OK button. Owing to the glossy plastic used, this part of the keypad is really pleasant to manage.
The display in the 6300 is its most outstanding part – in both senses of this word. Being a replica of Nokia 6131's display, this screen empowers you with bring and crisp colors, all in all, it's one of the best screens to date. At QVGA resolution (240x320 pixels, 31x42 mm), it shows up to 16 mln colors (TFT). Even though colors fade in the sun, the information on the screen remains readable. Depending on picked font size and current application, the display can hold up to 9 text lines (or even more) and up to 3 service lines.
The top end houses the power button, serving for fast profiles switch as well, while at the bottom you will find miniUSB-socket covered by a plastic flap attached to the casing, and 2.5 mm jack for a headset and charger slot.
On the rear you will find a lens of a 2 Mpix camera starring at you and the grill of the main speaker.
The handset is well-built - gaps, as well as crackling noises, are non-existent at all. Removing the back cover is really simple – just push it and draw. The microSD memory cards slot is located on the left side; "hot-swap" feature support is onboard.
The 6300 utilizes 760 mAh Li-Ion battery (BL-4C) which made its first appearance in Nokia 6100 – what a fortunate coincidence! As the manufacturer claims, this battery can keep the handset good to go for up to 3.5 hours in talk mode and up to 330 hours in standby. In conditions of Moscow networks the 6300 lasted about 2 days at 1,5 hours of calls and up to 3 hours of music playback, while all other functions were almost out of work. The battery life is insignificantly lower than that of Nokia 6233/Nokia 6131, which comes as no surprise, taking account of a less capacious battery. It takes the phone less than 2 hours to charge from empty to full.
Over at Nokia they are getting to make even more mistakes in spec sheets than before, so that Nokia 6300 is said to be powered by S40 3rd edition with Feature Pack 1. On the other hand, though, some features like DRM 2.0, revamped player and other specs, reviewed on Nokia's pages, define it as a model running Feature Pack 2. So it is fine to distrust the manufacturer in this very case, since Nokia 6300 retains the latest software version by Nokia.
The handset accommodates 9 Mb of bundled user-manageable memory.
Being a standardized solution the 6300 doesn't deserve just another close-up of its features – fortunately, the manufacturer hasn't presented us with any changes. All software features of the device have already been reviewed in a dedicated article, which we are now referring you to.
Camera. This handset has 2mpx camera (CMOS) which is not that much according to today's standards, but it is still pretty enough for a middle class model. Nokia decided not to bet on camera part, it is more of an optional feature. This is why camera's module that was selected for 6233 is one of the cheapest, and provides average quality, if not to say bad one. In dark conditions camera refuses to work normally, exposure time increases and every movement your hand makes within that time leads to blurry image in the end. Dark conditions are considered daytime in summer on a street where there's not much of sunlight. Indoors it is even worse. In case you consider camera being a nominal solution – it is pretty much comfortable, at same time handset was unable to reach at least Sony Ericsson's K750i level.
Some effects can be applied to already made photos, should they be used initially – it is up to you to decide. Such effects as False Colours, Greyscale, Sepia, Negative, Solarize are available.
Video. Handset allows recording video in 3GP format, available resolution – 128x96 pixels, or 176x144 pixels. Recording quality is divided into three parameters. You can limit recording's length, but it also can be limitless, until memory runs out (of memory card or internal memory). Effects can be applied for video just as they can be applied for photos, they are all the same.
Applications. The standard set of applications includes Music Guess, Unit Converter and Nokia Sensor. Some markets might get the phone coming included with other apps and games. Java-apps can be loaded over the air or via the memory card, cap on maximum file size is standard – 1 Mb (heap 2 Mb).
Performance. The 6300 offers typical performance rates for Nokia's latest generation of handsets, no breakthroughs here in the sense of interface speed.
This model by Nokia has turned out to be extremely fetching, and the most pleasing thing is to find it running on 3d Edition Feature Pack 2, which grants the 6300 acceptable music capabilities, radio, and well-implemented phonebook and organizer. A2DP did better than before as well – though it's only my own opinion, don't know whether it will be proven by facts or not. Refined materials used, marginal flaws in ergonomics – all this makes the handset looks like a kind of masterpiece. When it comes to the class it originates from, the 6300 comes out on top with its superb display, which is one of the market's best screens as well. Like all other S40 cameras, the one found on the 6300 is beneath criticism and is seemingly embedded in the device just for sake of it. On-screen quality of snaps, owing the brilliant display, is pretty much fine, but viewing them on PC won't make you happy. Video recording capabilities have been gotten down to the bottom level under the pressure of marketing strategy.
In the middle of February the 6300 will be retailed for 350-370 USD and will go down to 350 USD in no time. And there is a good probability that this model will be a long-liver among handsets – it might even exceed the lifecycle of 1,5-2 years and still look fetching, and there are many facts confirming this point of view, including the example of Nokia 6100. In fact the 6300 is not rivaled directly by any other model, however form-factor wise Samsung F300 could pose a threat to Nokia's latest offspring, however its price tag is a bit hefty and specifications are quite different as well. But the Walkman-branded phone, scheduled for release pretty much on the same date and boasting smaller size and a whole lot of music features under its belt for a slightly higher price, is a totally different story. Music and fashion lovers will definitely go for Sony Ericsson's offering in this case, but this target audience won't be overlapping that of Nokia 6300 too much.
If a handset boasting golden price/quality ratio and equipped with a brilliant display, good specs, which is reliable wherever you go and is what you seek – Nokia 6300 should definitely be on your short-list. Nokia's range delivers even more models of this kind - Nokia 6233 and Nokia 6131. But the toughest competition, as it seems, will take place between the 6233 and the 6300, since it's quite easy to run around like a madman looking at their specs – Nokia 6233 gets ahead by offering stereo-speakers and better keyboard, but the screen is its drawback, as well as non-minimizable player and on top of that software has less to bring to the table. Quite challenging choice, isn't it? So, everything I have left to do now is repeat my own words again – Nokia 6300 is undoubtedly one of Nokia's best offerings to date.


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There Is No 'Magic Bullet' That Can Turn the Tide for Ukraine
U.S. Soldiers assigned to the 65th Field Artillery Brigade, and soldiers from the Kuwait Land Forces fire their High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (U.S.) and BM-30 Smerch rocket systems (Kuwait) during a joint live-fire exercise, Jan. 8, 2019, near Camp Buehring, Kuwait. The U.S. and Kuwaiti forces train together frequently to maintain a high level of combat readiness and to maintain effective communication between the two forces. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. James Lefty Larimer)
Last Sunday when the remaining Ukrainian soldier withdrew from Lysychansk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said evacuating his troops from the city "where the enemy has the greatest advantage in fire power," was the right call, but "means only one thing… That we will return thanks to our tactics, thanks to the increase in the supply of modern weapons." While many in the West would like that to be true, the reality is very different: there is no basis upon which to hope for a future offensive to drive Russian troops out of conquered territories.
The most likely result for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) if they continue fighting the Russians is that more of Zelensky's troops will be killed, more Ukrainian cities will be turned to rubble, and more territory Kyiv will lose to the invaders. A sober analysis of the capacity of the of the two armed forces, an assessment of the military fundamentals that have historically proven decisive on the battlefield, and an examination of the sustainability potential for both sides, make it plain that Russia will almost certainly win a tactical victory.
Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksiy Arestovych said that, to the contrary, the withdrawals in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk weren't defeats at all, but instead "successful" in that he claimed they allowed Ukraine to "buy time for the supply of Western weapons and the improvement of the second line of defense, to create conditions for our offensive actions in other areas of the front." This is a common belief in the West but one not borne out by the facts.
In some instances, fighting tenaciously in the face of considerable enemy superiority can prove to be the difference between victory and defeat. For example, in the famous Battle of the Bulge, the U.S. 101st Airborne Division refused to surrender in Bastogne even after it had been surrounded and cut off by the advancing German army.
The U.S. commander, however, had good reason to hold on even against an enemy with overwhelming numbers of artillery and tanks: as soon as the fog and cloud cover broke, the U.S. commander could expect massive air support to break the back of the German assaults and aerial resupply of ammunition and food to Bastogne's defenders. More critically, Gen. George S. Patton's 4th Armored Division was also racing north to relieve the 101st. For the Ukraine defenders, on the other hand, there is no such help coming.
The much-ballyhooed supply of "heavy weapons" from the West that both Zelensky and Arestovych claim is coming will not be enough to turn the tide. Not even close. Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak correctly noted that the minimum needed by Ukraine to have a chance at reaching parity with the Russian invaders would require modern kit in the range of 1,000 howitzers, 500 tanks, and 300 rocket launchers.
As detailed by The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the sum total of all heavy weapons delivered or promised by the West through last week's G7 and NATO summits amounts to a paltry 175 howitzers, 250 Soviet-era tanks, and an anemic dozen or so rocket launchers. To date, no other help is being considered.
The ramifications of this mismatch should be clear: despite numerous and boisterous claims of Western support, it is militarily unsound for Ukraine to base its defense plans on the hope that major quantities of high quality Western heavy weapons will show up to help Ukraine stop the Russians. But there is a bigger, less obvious truth at play as well: even if Zelensky got everything on Podolyak's list, it still would not likely change the battlefield dynamics.
The reason is that, like in all modern wars, military victory or defeat in the Russian-Ukraine War is likely to be determined by the side that has the highest quality of manpower and less on the platforms of war. For all its major missteps in the opening round, Russia began the war with a total active force of 900,000 whereas Ukraine had approximately 250,000.
Both sides have suffered egregious casualties since February – but Russia has hundreds of thousands more active troops from which to pull to replace its losses, whereas Ukraine has none. The impact on the battlefields of the Ukrainian disadvantages in weaponry and personnel is stark and unambiguous.
In a recent New York Times expose, Megan Specia wrote that a Ukrainian colonel admitted that most of the replacements being sent to his unit at the front have "never served in the army. The notion that people could simply spring to action when the war crept closer is wrong, he said. By then, it is too late." As units like the one Specia described fall back from one city to the next, there is no military foundation upon which to base the hope that the Russian offensive will be stopped.
Moscow can replenish its personnel losses from an existing pool of relatively trained personnel. They have tens of thousands of additional tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery pieces to replace combat losses. Russia has a decisive advantage in air power. Putin's military-industrial capacity to continue making missiles, rockets, and artillery shells has been diminished because of sanctions, but still functions – whereas most of Ukraine's manufacturing capacity has been methodically destroyed.
In short, there is no valid military path through which Ukraine can hope that trading space for time will result in stopping Russia's methodical progress through Ukraine – much less reverse it. To continue contesting every town and city is to ensure the Ukrainian casualties continue to mount and its urban areas destroyed. In the end, Russia is still likely to achieve a tactical victory.
It is necessary, in light of these physical realities, for U.S. and Western policies to change. Continuing to give verbal support to Ukraine and claiming that eventually, Kyiv's side will win the war is not likely to change the outcome and is likely to result in a policy failure for Washington.
No one wants to negotiate from a position of weakness with an invading power, but the harsh truth is that the longer Zelensky and his Western supporters continue pursuing unrealistic objectives, the more likely Ukraine eventually suffers an outright military defeat.
Expert Biography: Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of "The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America." Follow him @DanielLDavis.
Note: This piece was updated with two small grammatical tweaks as requested by the author.
In this article:featured, Joe Biden, Russia, U.S. Military, Ukraine, War in Ukraine
Written By Daniel Davis
Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of "The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America." Follow him @DanielLDavis1.
Scottfs
When fighting aggressors like Russia, the best solution is surrender. Poland should surrender now. The Baltic States should surrender now.
Give Putin and Xi Jinping what they want now, to reduce bloodshed.
Living under a dictatorship won't be too bad. Due process and freedom is overrated.
LMAO…Under The Bidet Politburo, it has almost come to that.
To The Author: There is no "Magic Bullet". However, a Few Hundred More Self Propelled Arty Units, MLRS, Modern Tanks and AFV's, Modern Air Defense Systems, and a lot more Ammunition, would definitively "Change The Tide."
Oh, Please. It's only because of Biden that the US has helped as much as it has. On the first night of the invasion, when it looked like it would all be over quickly, Trump was publicly congratulating Putin the savvy genius. And Putin still has Republican defenders, like Gaetz and Empty-G
It's laughable that Putin was afraid to invade Ukraine while Trump was president. The truth is that Putin didn't want to hurt Trump's reelection, after Russia had spent so much time and effort on his two campaigns. Putin was always waiting until Trump's second term to invade, when Trump was planning to withdraw from NATO.
You will let the Ukrainian people fight to the last man.
James Jordan
There's always a magic bullet in this clown world. Wait until NATO joins the fight.
Maybe you should re-read the article. There is no path to a military victory for Ukraine. Ukraine had a chances to negotiate for nearly eight years. It could have recognized the sovereignty of the Lugansk and Donetsk breakaway provinces. But it chose to fight instead. Literally a case of "f__ked around and found out". Now America is and the west is just increasing the number of dead Ukrainians by prolonging a war that was started partially through their own diplomatic failures dealing with Russia and Russian loyalists in the Ukraine.
Oh, because after Ukraine recognizes the loss of Crimea, Donbas, and Luhansk, including retreating from the portions that they currently hold, and probably also Kherson and Zaporizia, and perhaps a few other regions too …. after all this, in your fantasy land, Russia is going to suddenly become a peaceful neighbor? More likely, Russia will just establish rail lines, artillery depots, and forward bases in those regions and use them a springboard for the next wave of invasion.
Ukraine's very existence is unacceptable to Putin. They have but two choices: fight, or die.
Well, when its not you or your family doing the dying its easy to say those are the only two choices you have.
I am sure you are right. But if certain defeat is the only likely outcome then I for one would surrender or negotiate. That certainly looks like the case here. Are you volunteering to go and fight?
This author has that mindset. His book basically talks about giving up Taiwan to China as well. Just appease the aggressors, surely they will stop wanting more?
Yes you are right but the fact is for Ukraine to win they need more than money and bullets. The West is not ready to send in men and woman to die in Ukraine. As long as that is the case, the reality is Ukraine will lose. The question is how many people do the Ukrainian government send to their deaths before they realize that? And if we send real troops into Ukraine are we ready for an expanded war not just in Ukraine and Europe but in Asia as well? It's easy to talk tough, but are we ready for the hell that will be unleashed if we do what needs to be done to see Ukraine remain free?
mawendt
Peace in our time?
How quaint.
NEIL HUSSEY
I beg to disagree. Western military analysts have been studying this situation for some time.Though even they had thought like you that the Russians had a superior armed force. You and the Ukrainian allies are both wrong, as is the Russians , other than their WW1 use of massive artillary are not able to match the skill level and training that the Ukrainian military has had in the past eight plus years from many western trainers who already master the antiquated Soviet's style of warfare being used here. A big IF, and only if the west bites the bullet and digs deep to give the Ukraine army the tools it needs to defeat Russia, I believe wholeheartedly that they have the will, the need, and the mindset to overpower the Russians and push them out of their country. The punishing end to Putin's war should deter Russia from again trying to bully any previous Soviet satellite country that now exists within the Democratic world, as a member of the EU and NATO.The above said, if by any chance should either Russia or Belarus mistakingly or deliberately target a Nato country during this war,Russia and Belarus will find they are up against a foe that outmatches them in every area. Nuclear weapons by Russia be damned. Putin and his hacks know full well that any use of nuclear weapons will cause a catastrophic situation that will affect the whole world and would prove totalitarian in Earth's destruction.Long live Ukraine.Glory to Ukraine.
Bravo Neil! 100% on the Money!
Vasiliy Terkin
> other than their WW1 use of massive artillary are not able to match the skill level and training that the Ukrainian military has had in the past eight plus years from many western trainers who already master the antiquated Soviet's style of warfare being used here.
It sounds like nonsense. What special "skill level" did the Ukrainians get? What is this "outdated Soviet style"? Why couldn't the Russians have mastered/created something comparable to "incredible Western skills"? How does this correlate with the heavy losses of the trained and experienced Ukrainian military? How much would skills help when the enemy outnumbered them tenfold in firepower?
> within the Democratic world
How is "democracy" in Russia different from "democracy" in, for example, the United States?
I agree. There is a lot of arrogance in western commentary. It is embarrassing. Given that we have not really won any wars recently, and they have all been against people who cannot fight back, I do not think we are in a position to deduct points from Russia for "style". They seem to have a capable army that is professional. Not sure that western countries have that any more.
CRS, DrPH
Capable army that is professional? If you give points for civilian rape and murder, I'd have to agree with you. Otherwise, not.
The "magic bullet" is that Ukrainians are fighting for their own country and people, and Putin is just throwing meat into the fire (Chechen words). Based upon the dramatic footage of Russian ammo dumps exploding on July 4th, I'd say that the US provided HIMARS rockets are doing their intended job.
I'm waiting for Ukraine to shoot down a few Tupolev Tu-22M (Backfire) bombers with their new surface to air missiles, and hopefully sink a Russian sub or three with the help of Western satellite targeting.
No magic bullet needed, just guts, God and glory. Glory to Ukraine!
Hồng Thắng
The writer should re-learn the history of the Vietnam War
USA use of nuclear power in Japan showed that using just two small bombs can stop the war. Why do you think Russia cannot act the same?
"just two small bombs can stop the war.":
So it was just two bombs? Not the total annihilation of the Japanese navy and airforce? Not the taking of all their satelite islands? Not the 63,000 dead American servicemen? Which all came first. The bombs were just to avoid a land invastion of the main island.
Good analysis there Elijah
Ok. Where is Ukrainian Navy and airforce? No such things at all. I mean that if Russia decides to win it will win anyway because it is nuclear. And USA/Nato will not mess if tactical nukes are used.
Western armies that just lost a twenty year war in Afghanistan to men armed only with light weapons are clearly awesome at training armies to fight intensive wars. Good to hear.
On the other hand, Russia lost to the same tribesmen in only nine years. With much higher casualties, too.
So you are ready to send in the 500k western troops that are likely needed at this point? You are ready to commit those troops with the full knowledge that it will be the trigger China has been looking for to make their moves? And you are ready to get involved with a war that can easily escalate to the destruction of cities with nuclear weapons? I won't argue that this will all eventually lead to these outcomes anyway, but I just don't see that the West is ready to commit to your braggadocio and if we are ready to commit that we really are ready to execute as well.
Aztec6
What a bunch of jingoistic hooey. The Russians are fighting a limited conflict and are focused on UKR's military. They simply want UKR demilitarized. Why was there any talk about expanding NATO to UKR in the first place AGAINST our promises to Moscow?
America's moronic diplomacy is to fault for this invasion just like the first Gulf War. Hopefully we won't send ground troops over, but with the moron in chief in the oval office, you can almost count on it.
Where is this promise written? I can show you where USA and Russian promise to uphold the sovereignty and territory of Ukraine is written. Why are you so concerned about one and care nothing for the other? Why are we letting Russia invade Ukraine AGAINST our promise? Or do promises not actually mean anything to you? Putin has said Ukraine is part of Russia and shouldbe again, are you saying he is lying and only wants to demilitarize Ukraine?
Harald Ullrich
I served 12 years on active duty and 11 years in the reserves as a German officer. I agree with Mr. Davis' analysis, and the vast majority of my ex-comrades and also still active comrades (colonel, lieutenant colonel) have the same assessment of the situation. Where and how should the Ukrainian troops receive sufficient training in modern weapons and practice the appropriate tactics and strategies?
There will be no direct interference of NATO troops (even if the official one would be called "coalition of the willing"). The risk is too high.
Besides, one should not forget that Ukraine is "divided" into two parts. The 2010 elections clearly showed this. President Yanukovych, who was ousted in 2014, was overwhelmingly elected in the south and southeast of the country. And these are the areas that are occupied or contested today. There are reports in Western media of clear opposition by the local population to Ukrainian troops (e.g., frontline reports on French television Grance24 and on social media blogs in Ukraine itself). In this respect, the unified will to continue the war on the part of the Ukrainians is doubtful. A war of attrition would have no support on the part of the EU. In Germany and other countries, stage 2 of the national gas emergency plan has already been declared. In the next stage, large parts of the basic economy (chemicals, steel, glass) will collapse due to the lack of gas. How do you think the German and European public will react then? Economic suicide for Ukraine? For the USA, everything looks different. The USA takes over the gas supplies from the Russians and is a big Islands far away from the conflict.
It's time for the west to stop playing in this sand box. Stop wasting money. Stop sending materiel. The illusion of hope is prolonging the suffering and the ultimate inevitable conclusion here. Russia regardless of their ineptitude is a larger force and can bleed longer and more than Ukraine. Ukraine had no chance here unless NATO aka THE UNITED STATES MILITARY intervened. With Joe Biden using Barack Obamas playback of impotence Ukraines fate was sealed. Biden can attempt a moral high ground participation trophy "victory lap" for trying to help. Other than protecting the elitists foreign interests in Ukraine that's all this was. Optics."Look we care". But they didn't. They spent OUR MONEY. They sent OUR military equipment to defend a non ally. Our elected leaders who voted for this need to be removed from office. It's pathetic. Who cares about Ukraine? Not me. Obama and Biden didn't care when Putin annexed part of it before… what changed?
Ukraine is officially an ally though
Not an ally, you are wrong. Ukraine has no defence alliance with any country.
So imagine you could go back in time you history flunky and stop Hitler from invading Poland? Now let's go to present day and we have the capability and power to help another country repel Pupu head from taking all of Ukraine! Do you think he will stop there dumba$$!!! We also have China and NK to worry about as well as Iran! We have to stop this and make Russia pay in both blood, weapons, and pain!!! You're probably a liberal conservative who doesn't believe in the death penalty as well weak ass Panzy snowflake!
The Taliban had no howitzers, tanks, planes or drones. Well, until the USA gave them the key to city hall and tons of weapons as they left.
Ukraine cannot win an artillery duel over the long run, but they have a great advantage against Russia for asymmetric guerrilla warfare.
There is no guerilla warfare on territories liberated by Russia because unloyal population escapes to western Ukraine. And pro-russians welcomes russian army.
There will be no asymmetrical guerrilla warfare. Medieval religious fanatics are fighting in Afghanistan in the mountains (!). In Ukraine, the typical European population is not ready to run through the woods to crap on the Russians. Especially considering that in most cases it is difficult to distinguish a Russian from a Ukrainian.
If the Ukrainian leadership persists, Ukrainians themselves will not want to fight by the fall, given the looming collapse of the economy and possible famine.
Have you seen the pictures of happy people waving Russian flags in Mariupol and other parts of Donbas? This is not quite the same thing as the old colonial British enemy entering Helmand province.
Kremlin propaganda, beginning to end. They knew that they had better wave those flags if they knew what was good for them.
"Thanks Russia, for blasting our homes into tiny pieces with your missile and artillery barrages, and for your drunken troops stealing everything that wasn't nailed down! Really great!"
Interesting points. But again, what if the western elites like what's going on? What if that's the plan? To bleed Russia, regardless of what it does the Ukraine. I mean, the western elites could care less how many Ukrainians die, or how much of Ukraine is reduced to rubble. It will just make the Ukrainians hate the Russians even more. Perhaps throwing barely trained Ukrainian troops into combat will be relatively ineffective – but it will still make the Russians bleed, yes? Rooting out even poorly trained troops from defensive positions in ruined cities is not easy, I should think,
If you see someone doing something apparently stupid, and they keep doing it regardless of the evidence – maybe they are stupid. Or maybe they have another agenda.
So you're saying NATO should step in militarily?
I have read, Russia fully anticipates outright war with NATO and has a plan. Which sounds quite ridiculous on surface, due to the nuclear wild card, and possibly any kind of analysis might prove it beyound all doubt. Regardless, the best course for NATO nations, is to forget about the NATO pact and each country should wage war on Russia to extent they are willing and capable without a formal declaration. In short, an expansion of the current strategy. Just keep picking off personnel and assets one at a time for however long it takes. Russia cannot win against that strategy.
Stefan Stackhouse
We can probably supply the Ukrainians with enough weapons to eventually slow the Russians to a stop. It may take a while, but it could happen. Rolling the Russians back is a different proposition, and would require a continuous supply of weapons (free, for them, but not for us!) that is most likely well in excess of our productive capacity. It can't and won't happen.
On the other hand, any "negotiated settlement" with Russia will involve the permanent cession of territory for only a temporary "peace". Once the Russians have rearmed and rebuilt their army they will be right back at it again. Not a good deal for Ukraine.
I don't know what the Ukrainians should do. Pick the most defensible line possible (difficult in such flat land), and have a plan for a fighting retreat back to such a pre-reinforced line? Any better suggestions?
Ask the Mexicans what they did in the 1840s, finding themselves in a similar position . They gave in and permanently ceded much of their territory. No doubt they told themselves that they would regroup and get it back.
Nice comment. People forgot US history and how it got lands: California, Texas and so on )
All Ukraine had to do was fulfill the Minsk agreements and confirm its neutral and non-aligned status. Then there would be no reason for conflict in principle. Apparently, this scenario did not suit the U.S. and Britain.
Using Ukraine as a doormat to bang on Russia's door is cynical.
It's easy to be an arm-chair general fighting to the last man.
There is reason to believe the collective West is throwing good money after bad, and not able to pay its debts.
Pound sand diplomacy has already cost one western government (Johnson) and more could fall (Biden). How much damage to our alliances are we willing to inflict (Germany)?
How much damage to America?
When do you stop digging a hole on a failed policy?
And when are the people who inflicted this policy on America going to be held accountable for the worst diplomatic failure in American History.
This is a good article.
My main disagreement is that I see no evidence for all this alleged Russian incompetence or early military failure. The early move on Kiev was either a fixing move or an attempt to persuade immediate surrender that was a gamble. If the latter then that did not happen but was an intelligence or political failure not a military one.
In any event, the Russians retreated when they chose to and there is no evidence that columns were wiped out or that Ukraine managed to stage any form of combined arms operation to defeat them. They did ambush some individual tanks but that is hardly the stuff of strategic victory. The likely outcome here has been clear pretty much from the start.
The actions of the US and UK to scupper negotiations in late March will go down in history as a very poor decision, and possibly even a war crime.
No evidence that Putin allowed to be shown in Russia, at any rate.
This thing boils down to one thing and one thing only, and that is whether Ukrainians would rather die fighting for their country or live in subjugation. If they are willing to fight, they should be helped in every way possible. I am picturing Davis in Sparta when the Persian messengers showed up … he'd probably get a hernia trying to accommodate their demands.
Is it fear of subjugation or hate for Russians (and all things Russia) that is central to the Ukraine ideology?
Hate as a governing ideology is wrong when nearly half of a country shares a language, culture, and history.
This pound sand diplomacy and foreign policy was something the American People didn't ask for and weren't told about… as if they were little children.
What a sad way to treat the Sovereign, American People.
Neil Ross Hutchings
Putin offers the first olive branch: "Everyone should know that, by and large, we haven't started anything yet in earnest," he said. "At the same time, we don't reject peace talks. But those who reject them should know that the further it goes, the harder it will be for them to negotiate with us."
We will now see how Kyiv reacts, more importantly how Washington advises Kyiv to react.
Peter the not so great
If Kyiv losses the war it will still have backing from the west for an insurgency and will become Putin's Afghanistan. How many Putin puppets will meet untimely deaths and occupying soldiers will be exterminated? As Vlad's saber rattling get louder it could be interpreted as fear of losing…and shortening his own life expectancy.
Ah, Putin's Afghanistan. The much desired goal of this, the war that America has desired for Russia. It may come to pass, but the dying won't be as unidirectional as you seem to think and hope. While Russia may bleed, Ukraine may bleed out. This isn't in the interests of the people of Ukraine, but their interests have never mattered to those who have ruled Ukraine or the Kiev government's foreign sponsors.
Good advice. Those wishing to restore the Romanov empire should follow it too. The Empires of both the Tsars (The Prison of Nations) and the "Proletariat" bled themselves white trying to keep subject peoples in line.
An interesting thing I read yesterday was that legislation is going through the Duma calling for Russians to work overtime to help purchase articles for the troops. Always a sign that things are going well. These are things that were supposedly already purchased with tax dollars, but the money was actually stolen through Russia's systemic corruption, and who's to say the money won't be stolen again? It's the Russian way. This is what the Ukrainians have to look forward to if they lose.
I also read yesterday that the Russian administration is trying to stop sales of alcohol in the occupied Ukrainian territories, as their troops are going out of control and causing great embarrassment.
I've read that Alice found Wonderland after falling down a rabbit hole. Does that make it true?
I think you don't understand what is Ukraine. It is no way Afghanistan. In Russia there are about 2 millions (maybe more) ethnic ukranians. But not a single terrorist attack since the beginning of conflict. The only part of Ukraine where any insurgency can rise (but not in muslim type scale) is small part in the West. And there is little to zero chance that it will be soon conquered.
Roger colman
Daniel is right on the current level of Western military assistance. He is wrong on the relative military industrial complexes by a mile. Russia has no chance to win on human and technology multiplier resources against a western armed ukraine. The only military resource where Russia is still winning is artilary. The current ukrainian kit has nearly stopped the Russian land forces. The current ukrainian kit has stopped the Russian navy and largely the Russian air force. And has crushed the ability of Russian tanks.
Wake up folks. The west has taken Russia out if action economically and militarily for decades. Leaving only china by itself as an adversary.
Joe Herman Freeman
The entire war like so many was based upon a series of miscalculations by the West which expected that Ukraine couldn't fight by Ukraine which was led to expect massive help and by Russia which expected little or no support for Ukraines independence from Russia and preference for the West.
There was NEVER a realistic possibility that the Ukrainians alone could defend their country successfully against a massive invasion from Russia.they lacked the heavy equipment weapons with sufficient range and trained manpower. Additionally the Russians were and continue to operate with shorter better supply lines from a privileged sanctuary had air superiority control of the Black Sea and an additional privileged sanctuary in Crimea connected by the Kerch Bridge to Russia proper.
And finally the Russians had another privileged sanctuary in Belarus. All of which meant that they could attack as they chose with secure logistics from 3 directions complicating Ukrainian defense.
Furthermore the EU and hence NATO had put themselves in a terrible position over the years to defend themselves let alone Ukraine.
The two major and original NATO members were virtually non participants. Macron of zfrance kept trying to surrenderfor Ukraine.
Germany actually wanted no part of it due to dependence on cheap Russian hydrocarbons and the fact that it had virtually disarmed over the past 30 years and disbanded its military.
Addition a lly there was a lack of purpose and will on the part of the West which frittered away the year prior to the invasion as Putin built up and staged his invading army.
Only when Russian armor crossed the border were sanctions put in place and as usual sanctions failed to stop or even seriously hinder 200 000 troops from aggression.
And finally Putins continuing threats of nuclear use deterred the West for another crucial period in which significant heavy weapons could have poured into Ukraine.
Having analyzed WHY Ukraine is in the position it now finds itself its possible to see why NATO and the EU can easily find itself repeatedly in exactly the same position repeatedly when Russia finishes its dismemberment of Ukraine. The Baltic countries and Eastern Europeans are terrified and for good reason. And they at least especially Poland assisted Ukraine far more in proportion to their resources than other larger older NATO members who have been virtual free riders for years.
As V I Lenin reputedly said in 1918 we come now to the question of what is to be done.
There is of course a range of options for the EU the US and hence for NATO. These range from immediately ceasing support for Ukraine and allowing the Russians to reincorporate Ukraine into Russia proper at one extreme to actually giving the Ukrainians all the support possible on a crash priority basis and allowing the war to continue to its bloody conclusion using the time to properly increase the NATO forces within the NATO countries. This extreme we old require considerable expense and sacrifice on the part of the US and the EU as a whole. And of course there are options within this spectrum. But make no mistake ANY option other than complete and unequivocal support of Ukraine at this point will require Russian cooperation as they currently are in a winning position.with that in mind we may as well begin with the only option which does NOT require Russian cooperation which is full support of Ukraine.
The fact is that the Russians have NOT won their war and the Ukrainians do NOT require 1000 artillery pieces 500 tanks etc to fight their war.
The Russians selected as a fallback their historical formula for this fight which was massive artillery prep pound everything to rubble occupy the rubble move the artillery up then rinse and repeat.
The Ukrainians tried to match that and failed due to lack of equipment.
An additional fact is that the Russians are ill suited to fight a war of maneuver or logistically support massive concentrations of artillery any appreciable distance from a protected rail head. And the final fact is that Ukraine and its infrastructure are already devastated in large measure.
There is additionally the fact that if the West is going to have to fight the Russians to prevent their reabsorbtion of at least Eastern European countries similar devastation will occur in these countries. Consequently it simply is logical to fight the current war with Russia on the current ground rather than future ground such as the Baltics Poland Rumania or Germany and have those c ountries trashed as well.
The EU alone has far more productive capacity than Russia and should it so choose can ramp up its excellent arms industry to supply more first rate equipment than Russia which is already reduced to using T62 tanks. Add the US and its arms capacity and its not even close.
The economies of the combined western powers far exceed Russias.
What is lacking is the political will and foresight on the part of the West that matches Russias.
The fact is thatthe West moving to a quasi war time production and economy SHOULD be a priority for the West NOW rather than when a NATO country such as Estonia Is attacked by 1000 Russian artillery pieces and 500 tanks.
And universal conscription and training in ALL Western countries should begin NOW rather than when 200 000 trained Russian troops knock on the door of a NATO country and begin shelling it.
And of course there are the Chinese…who by the way can match or exceed the productive capacity of either the US or the EU.
Ding the above would allow more heavy weaponry to pour into Ukrsine from existing hoarded Western military equipment and enable the Ukrainians to continue fighting.
There are workarounds for Europe's energy problems if they shelve their dream of relying on green energy and Russian gas. And the same is absolutely true for the US if it shelves its similar pipe dream. The Russians by the way along with the Chinese and Indians have no such tender regard for the planet or climate change.
In fact the Russians figured out about 15 years ago that climate change operates to their geographic advantage.
In any event getting the Ukrainians around half the artillery that the Russians have would help them a lot especially if the artillery is long ranged and highly mobile and accompanied by sufficient ammunition and anti air area denial systems that are also mobile.
Giving the Ukrainians large longer ranged cruise missiles that can interdict and destroy the Russian Black Sea fleet and drop the Kerch Bridge as well as hit the Rissians in Crimea should be done. Crimea properly speaking is NOT Russian it is Ukrainian territory.
Doubtless the Russians will not like this and doubtless they will threaten nuke use. The response to this should be a promise of equal use of nukes. Becsuse that in the end will always happen when the Russians don't get what they want.
Without an effective air force and the means to protect air bases there is not much point in sending 500 tanks. Extensive supplies of anti Armour missiles along with extensive supplies of armed drones were demonstrated to be sufficient by the Azeris against the Armenian tanks and artillery.
Belarus should be informed that any direct involvement by them will be interpreted as a preparatory attack on Poland and will be countered by NATO The Belarus army is questionable as is its population. They would like to be rid of their dictator for life.
The point to the rough outline above is that the EU and NATO are going to eventually HAVE to do more or less the above sooner or later. And sooner is better. The Eurasian continent is threatened by not only Putin but Xi. And each let alone both constitute an existential threat to the West to a relatively free way of life and its very existence.
It's better to assist the Ukrainians in their struggle on their land than in another country shortly after Ukrainia ceases to exist.
So what's the object of the exercise?
First to prepare adequately for a larger more dangerous threat from either or both megalomaniac dictators. Second to at least partially if not totally cripple the lesser threat here and now.
If properlyvsupported the Ukr a Indians can probably cost the Russians something north of 100 000 casualties and a major potion of their heavy equipment that it took them overc10 years to build.
If properlybenforced long term the sanctions will hinder them in rebuilding and at least delay further adventures against a better prepared NATO as it moves from tripwire to forward defense with preemptive capability which in the end will be required.
And most importantly from the Ukrainian standpoint it gives that country a chance at survival. At some point the Russians will have a choice of bleeding out in a serious way or abandoning their adventure to annex Ukraine or eradicating it.
Either works.
The major question is are the Western allies capable of mustering the long term political will to take the above actions in Ukrsine. And if not when if ever?
This struggle has been coming for over 100 years.
In the next 20 years or less its GOJNG to come to a climax.
The outcome will be determined by what the West does from this day forward.
I'm not an arm chair warrior I was a Marine in Vietnam. I've seen first hand what half measures timidity political mismanagement and lack of will produce.
They produce defeat.
I'm old now.
It's unlikely I will see the end of this struggle although given the utter recklessness of the current US administration and the lack of unity in the EU I might.
I take the time to point out the choices.
None are pleasant
But some have markedly worse outcomes than others.
Form_d_k
The author clearly is being disingenuous, as I refuse to believe they are not familiar with the makeup of Russia's armed forces. Their ground force has only 280,000 troops. You can throw spez, marines, and VDV into the mix but that isn't going to double that number.
The large number of Russian personnel the author refers to includes Rosgvardia who are not meant toq and are not equipped for frontline combat. It also includes hundreds of thousands of naval and air force personnel which have not exactly proven their worth in Ukraine. It includes logistical troops and an entire separate force focused on rail. It includes a strategic missile branch. It includes border troops.
The Russian Ground Forces entered the war with 280,000 active duty personnel. They have taken significant losses which is why they increasingly count on PMC & proxy forces.
And the author citing the size of Ukraine's military as if it were somehow massively outnumbered is also what I can only imagine is deliberate deception, as I cannot fathom a person with their background wouldn't be familiar with the concept of reserves and mobilization. Igor Strelkov, a person who I imagine has more insight than the author, constantly bemoans that in many places of the front Russian forces already are outnumbered, a situation they claim will lead to extremely grim scenarios where Ukraine gets to pick & choose where they can launch widescale strategic offensives. The only way out of this is mobilization, but the Kremlin appears reluctant to do so and in any case will take some time to bring fresh troops to bear.
I can only guess the author's opinion is meant to generate alarmist headlines that generate read: clickbait.
Andrew M Winter
Could not disagree more:
Neither side has control of the Air. That's the magic bullet. If Ukraine wants to dominate in Ukraine they need control of the air. They are trained for it, and are trained up to a standard of interoperability with NATO. All they need are the planes. They even have the pilots ready willing and able to fly.
The problem isn't hardware. The problem is the politics of nuclear stand off.
If Ukraine has the means to shatter what's left of the Russian Army in Ukraine, which would be the case if they had air superiority, Russia can't counter them, they aren't trained for that mission, at least according to this,
https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/how-russias-warfare-doctrine-is-failing-in-ukraine/
Ukraine, if they had that ability, could then go on offense into Russia propper. With a properly air supported high speed combined arms assault Moscow, a mere 400 miles from Kharkiv, would be a very doable objective.
But that invasion would trigger a nuclear war.
That is why the magic bullet, which is readily available, will not be provided. Ukraine will get what they need to defend until fall. But Ukraine will not be gunned up enough to stage a general counter offensive, because we can be relatively sure that Ukraine won't just "stop" at their own borders. No sensible nation would want to do that. But Russia has nukes, and…
CPT K USA
Mr. Winter, I think you are grievously mistaken. You write:
This is almost entirely incorrect, save for the truism that if Ukraine wants to dominate Ukraine they must control their air. They don't control their air, they are increasingly unable to dominate it, and their control over their own air increasingly irrelevant to the ground and pound war in existence. Ukraine's only possible way to victory would be not in matching Russian Arty, but in using maneuver warfare to destroy Russia's army. The Ukrainian decision to accept positional warfare has condemned them. They cannot win. "God fights on the side with the best artillery," said Napoleon Bonaparte, and he was right. In this context though, any attriting conflict favors Russia in the long run, regardless of whether in the air, in infantry, or in artillery.
The moment Ukraine adopted the Wehrmacht's static defensive posture, fighting for unnamed filthy villages in the back of beyond with their "hold your ground" for "every inch" mantras, they were doomed. And they will suffer the same fate as the 1943-1944 handicapped Army Group South. They will be attrited, and Ukraine defeated.
If any of your latter observations were in fact adopted (even without the nuclear threat), Russia would still prevail here, as were they to mobilize at any level approaching the mobilization maximum Ukraine is already operating at, they would have 50-1 force ratios conventionally.
Let's give Ukraine full nuclear arsenal and stop this Stalinism based DNA virus. No one ever will trust any Russian fake face. All the lovely Russians can make vacations in Kazakhstan or in the Taiga. Europe will never forget this scam… This is just the beginning! Do you really think that Russia stop in Ukraine? What will be next? Wake up people and don't be idiotic. This Russian scam should stop to use our tools and equipment. Let them bleed out and financially collapse so the babushkas can't even buy a glass of vodka. Always easy to talk about giving up east Ukraine for none Ukrainian dudes. How about you give up Paris, London or part of Washington to the Russians or Chinese? I want to see the face of the people writing about giving up if the Russian scam is in the front of their own garden… We should stop to write how the war will be lost and find ultimate solutions to stop this scam.
Spot on article by LTC Davis (ret.). As an active duty officer in the United States Army, I completely agree with his analysis. All of the myriad facts recited by him were well known prior to our provision of billions of dollars of armaments to a non-ally with hemorrhaging demographics whose defense does not coincide with our long term strategic national interests.
It was entirely predictable that the imposition of sanctions rising to the level of a full embargo combined with provision of tens of billions of dollars of equipment would force (read—guarantee) an outright strategic Russo-Sino anti-American alliance. Yet, instead of seeking to use Ukraine's unfortunate position to shore up and ensure American hegemony continues into the 21st century, our "strategic" planners and politicians opted for the PR war. Unfortunately, in war, fortune generally does favor the side with the larger battalions, particularly when as here with Russia, the conflict is one seen by the belligerent (Russia) as an existential one. Russia cannot and will not allow Ukraine to become part of an anti-Russian military alliance on their doorstep. They have been crystal clear on this for twenty (20) years. The best way forward would have been to, instead of incentivizing the destruction of the global dominance of "king dollar", finding a way using realpolitik to give Russia guarantees via-a-vie Ukraine by relaxing economic pain in Russia, bringing Russia into a loose working arrangement of Sino containment, and by ensuring that through concrete actions, we guaranteed the Russians that we had no aspirations of pushing an anti-Russian alliance up to Russia's heartland.
As a military officer, and as an American, it would be utterly intolerable for our national defense for the Chinese to support a soft coup in Mexico City, replacing the pro-American government with a pro-Chinese regime, to begin training their armed forces, arming them, assisting them in efforts to suppress pro-American autonomous areas (think Sonora), and openly seek to enter a strategic military alliance with Mexico… we would first seek to dissuade Mexico City, while supporting Sonora's autonomous aspirations, and if that failed, we would militarily intervene in Mexico to overthrow the Mexican government and to install a pro-American regime, and if that all failed, we would send a direct expeditionary force.
I see no reason why we should expect Russians to not act in their rational self interest to protect their own vital national security, nor why we should oppose such an action. They perceive that their basic ability to survive as a nation is at stake, and they will use any and all force to prevent an existential threat to their survival.
Thanks for the good and spot on article LTC.
The article author seems to believe in the following proverb:
Defeatism always wins, so why fight it?
Despite having military experience, the author has misunderstood key political, military, and logistical facts.
Putin fears calling the 'Special Military Operation' a 'War'. He does not want to call general mobilization–for a number of good reasons. Even if he calls a General Mobilization, he will only have reluctant bodies, not trained servicemen.
The Russian Air Force has been ineffective and AWOL, and it is doubtful there is a hidden air force ready to jump in and surprise us
all.
The Russian Navy is cowering beyond the range of Harpoons, to fire their fast dwindling supply of Kaliber cruise missiles. The Russian Navy is not much of a factor, and will grow less as they run out of ammo.
The Russian Army is in disarray. Many are refusing to fight, and some are being disobedient to orders–it can be stated with reasonable assurance that the Russian Army's morale is very low.
On paper, Russia appears to be a military behemoth, with Tanks, and various armor and ammunition stockpiled it huge numbers. But more robust analysis has revealed that most Russian armor and ammunition is unusable, or outdated and militarily useless.
Russia has almost completely run out of precision munitions. Missiles and artillery shells have a large number of duds. Russian artillery barrels are wearing out quickly, and direly in need of maintenance.
As Russian captured equipment has revealed, Russia uses Western computer chips to enable advanced navigation and targeting. Due to sanctions, this has prevented the manufacture of tanks, precision missiles, aircraft etc.
So while Russia on paper appears to have a virtually unlimited supply of arms and ammo, in reality, they are fast burning through their best equipment, and the replacements are militarily inferior.
Only a few HIMARS and M270s have already changed the course of the war. Ukraine has been accurately striking command posts, communication hubs, ammo dumps, and troop concentrations far behind enemy lines.
As time wears on, Russia will not be improving, while Ukraine has the entire West still supplying them with more modern weapons without the same limits as Russia labors under.
It is sad that a former officer of the US Army can be so wrong about his assessment of the Ukraine War.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Last edited by gvhvhg on Tue Sep 13, 2005 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Actually I say no, but not a strong no. If he does interesting things and starts making noises in singles like he seemed to be a couple of years back (or in doubles like middle of last year), I would do that. He has been kid of regressing lately and not picking up big wins anywhere it seems. If he is doing nothing much to discuss, why have it. Of course if he were an Indian, we would certainly have a link for him, as he has done more in singles and doubles than PA, RB, HM etc over the last couple of years but we hardly discus much on him. I would look for a little bit more of discussion for a forum on a clear foreign player (he does not have "Indian" ancestry, I believe. Pakistan is not India, and that is how Pakistanis like it to be).
Perhaps an Arvind Parmar (who is an British-Indian) thread should be there first, but for now a No from me on that too. Just don't want all that many player threads that's all. Rajeev Ram itself is somewhat unjustifiable as he is in the same group as Arvind, as any other Indian-foreigner is. But since there are enough people excited about him despite that, it is fine. Just my thoughts ..
If there are enough takers, I suppose we can make more forums for any player ... Basically any player from anywhere about whom we get a lot of posts (not threads, but actual posts), deserves a forum. Rajeev fits that bill, as does Sunitha. Aisam and Arvind don't, as of now. If he starts playing a lot with Rohan in doubles, we will end up having enough posts on Aisam to justify a forum down the line.
Right now, I would vote "no". I am not against any Pakistani but this site is named "Tennis India". Players with Indian connection should have their own "threads". Even if Aisam starts playing regularly with Rohan we should discuss him in the Rohan thread. So far we do not have a separate thread for Mahesh or Leander's partners even though Max has done well in singles. As far as the Asian connection is concerned we do not have "threads" for Srichapan or any Korean or Japanese or Indonesian players. So why a thread for Aisam?
We should have a thread for Aisam.If he succeeds,it will be a test case for all our aspiring players like RB or HM as to how they can plan their path,Aisam being from a country which has probably no patronage for tennis.Anyway India is light years ahead of Pakistan in tennis and it will be interesting to see how the odd Pakistani is faring.
I feel the forums are to be started purely on the basis of how many posts a player generates, with some minimum expectation on posts depending on how close to India the player is. In other words, we really shouldn't be deciding who should have a forum based on just subjective feelings. We should objectively check if we are discussing a player's deeds often enough, with somebody or other posting something on the player often.
I would say we should start a forum for say Isha Lakhani or Manisha Malhotra if we are discussing them enough - say one post a day or something for long enough periods.
The only exception we really made is on Nirupama. Niru is Niru, and we made a forum for her even if she is not doing anything much now for us to discuss much. That is a sentimental pick (we dearly hope she would still be back and doing things for us to discuss a lot)!
Expectation on posts is lower for Indians, of course - because these are the TennisINDIA forums. Foreign players of Indian origin need to do a whole lot more and generate say for instance 2 times the posts we expect for Indians before we create a forum for them. Sunitha was creating enough discussion, so we have one for her. Foreign born players of subcontinental origin (like Aisam) need to generate three times the posts, a plain Asian foreigner (like say Srichaphan) would need to generate four times the posts, and other foreigners (say Federer) would need 5 times as many posts .. The cuts could be changed, but I hope you get the idea of what I am saying ..
Aisam hasn't been doing enough interesting things that seems to excite the readers here to post enough on him. Hence I say no forum for him. If we are getting 3 or 4 posts a day on him, sure we could start a forum, I suppose.
I agree with Jay. Although it takes me less than a couple of minutes to start a forum and I could very easily start a foriegn players section, unless there is a big demand for it I don't see a need for it.
As a example, I don't know how many of noticed but a couple of weeks ago I merged the cricket forum with the other sports forum as there hadn't been any posts in it for a long while. Most of the other threads that we do have are pretty active and I would like to keep it that way.
I agree with Jay. If we have a thread for Aisam, I don't see why we shouldn't have one for Paradorn or Danai Udomchoke. But this is a forum for Indian Tennis. We may even offend Pakistanis by including a thread on a Pakistani player in such a forum.
By the way what exactly DID happen to Aisam's singles game. I mean, the guy has fallen all the way below top-450 now. He was inching up somewhere inside top-250 a while back, right? He was a top-10 junior player and much was expected of him. I suppose we should add him to the stats on players who couldn't survive for too long with the serve and volley style?
Even his doubles is not at the level it was last year. Hope he put it all togther again sometime.
now that Aisam is receiving indian WC's should we have a thread for him?
PS YAY!!! 300 posts for me!
If at all,we can start two separate threads.One for players of Indian origin like Sunita Rao,Rajiv Ram and Arvind Parmar.And the other one for Top level,Asian players,including srichapan,qureshi etc.
but the overbearing fact that he is from an hostile nation should keep him away.
I strongly object to the idea of having a thread for a Pakistani player. If it is Asian players we want to follow, there are at least 3 Thai players, 3 Korean, 2 Taiwanese and about 5 Japanese players who are ranked above Aisam. It is absurd -- and quite typical of our romantic streak -- that we should award a wildcard to a Pakistani at a Challenger in India. Has any Indian player in any sport ever received such special consideration in Pakistan? (squash for instance?) Give him all the best hospitality possible, but to go out of your way for a player from a country that makes it a special point to be virulently anti-India is absurd.
I am totally agreeing with PKB. I am not hard on AQ, but if it is the case why AQ only... may be we can open a general thread to discuss about other asian players as nitin (also) suggested.
I am against an Aisam thread also. The common thread amongst all the threads in this forum is the link to INDIA. If we start new threads for "Non-India linked" players we may be diluting our interest and enthusiasm for our own players. Our players are generating enough news to keep all of interested in this forum. Playing with Rohan is not enough connection to India for Aisam to deserve a thread in this forum in my opinion.


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Jason Brown was born in Newcastle-under-Lyme in October 1974. Though he initially failed to make an impact at first-class level, he made huge strides in the 2000 season when hewon selection for the A tour to the West Indies. After Ian Salisbury struggled in Pakistan, the England selectors called up Brown for the 2001 tour of Sri Lanka. But he played in just one warm-up match and couldn't force his way in. Despite being a consistent wicket-taker he has never really had another serious chance to force his way with his batting and fielding being a concern. It was difficult for him to watch Monty Panesar make such big strides, and in the winter of 2008 he switched clubs to join Nottinghamshire, where his former team-mate, Graeme Swann, had made home.