I think the reference to money aggregates and balance sheets and oil and gold refers to inflation about to happen, but hasn't shown up in the data.
Well, individuals like the aforementioned reader have been predicting inflation — actually hyperinflation — for a couple of years, and it hasn't shown up yet, so I decided to look at the evidence in favor of the hyperinflation-in-the-near-future thesis (I call this the "Apocalypse Soon" scenario).
This entry was posted on August 22, 2011 by Menzie Chinn.
No, the reader referenced gold because he can string an argument on it. If widgets were soaring or oil paintings, that might be the argument: identify something going up in value and say the dollar is falling relative to that.
We need a big QE3, period.
People have no idea how much deflationary overhang there is in the housing market, compounded by aging demographics, compounded by the otherwise-good effects of Moore's Law.
A big QE3 is needed. I hope they do it now rather than wait until October.
People clinging to the fact that gold is rising are somehow ignoring the fact that oil has fallen a lot.
Note that about 101% of the net increase in world Gold demand is from just one country – India. Gold is part of their culture, and their economic growth is creating more gold-buying. That should not be read into as a major economic indicator at this time. Oil is a bigger indicator.
I think gold as an indicator of inflation is an outdated 20th-century paradigm. Why not use oil? People need oil every day, but don't necessarily need gold every day.
Or, better yet, why not come into the 21st century and use MIPS of processing power, TB of storage, or GB of RAM as a commodity to measure inflation against? The price of most goods measured in these terms has been dropping by 30-50%/year.
How many TB of storage costs the same as a gallon of milk in 2008? 2011? 2012?
Now if one weren't a group-thinking modern macroeconomist, one might be able to imagine a time in Roman, French, British, or other history when the precious metal content of coins was reduced (i.e. "debased") but the prevailing economic conditions at the time were such that rapid consumer price inflation did not immediately occur. If one really wanted to exercise the old gray matter, one might imagine an equivalent thing happening today, with dollars increasing in quantity and decreasing in quality, with no significant concurrent price index increase.
I know it's very hard for modern economists to think outside of the rigid theoretical frameworks handed to them by their professors, but give it a try some time. You might learn something.
Secondly, despite your best efforts to find predictions of immediate hyperinflation on my blog, you found no such thing. What you found was a link to other discussion that our borrowing/spending ratio is in the danger range that Professor Peter Bernholz found is commonly a tipping point for economies. I maintain to this day that our serial 10% GDP deficits are extremely dangerous, but I do not predict near-term hyperinflation.
If you're going to wrongly attribute claims of immediate hyperinflation to me, would you at least do me the honor of giving me credit for the repeated calls to buy gold over the last six years? Those calls have been very successful long prior to gold's headlines in the popular media and despite there being no "inflation" by your definition.
Finally, no, I wasn't defending Rick Perry. He's a moron.
It's tragic that academia is no longer about the inquisitive pursuit of knowledge but the incurious, narrow-minded defense of doctrine. I pity the current crop of university students.
W.C. Varones: Oh, sorry. I misunderstood the text of your post, titled Hyperinflation tipping point. Mea culpa. By the way, why do you keep on referring to Fed Chairman Bernanke as "Zimbabwe Ben". But I understand that you definitely, absolutely, are making no references at all to hyper -inflation.
By the way, I didn't say you were defending Governor Perry; merely that you were defending his assertion of debasement. There is a difference.
There is less chance of hyperinflation in the next 24 months than there is of discovering ET (i.e. extremely low chance).
Even after QE1 and QE2, inflation is barely at 2%. The definition of 'hyperinflation' has itself been scaled down to 4% inflation, a figure that was quite acceptable in the 80s and early 90s.
There will NOT be a single future calendar year in the US that has a 5% rise in the CPI. Never.
No, the reader referenced gold because he can string an argument on it.
Erm, no. I've been talking about gold for years before its recent rise, and regardless of its recent performance, it continues to hold its ancient and time-honored place as a store of wealth because it can't be printed — the one thing that differentiates it from infinitely printable fiat currencies.
I didn't cherry-pick gold because of its recent performance. It is what it always has been, and fiat currencies are still collapsing around it just as they always have.
Please don't debase yourself by responding to red herrings from austrian dogmatists! You're a better economists than this and any discerning reader won't be led astray by such a comment. Devote your time to higher mp writings!
The inflation bug's mind works on the basis of fear; specifically the fear that rising prices deter and ultimately destroy savings and investment.
And the inflation bug is 100 percent correct.
To see this, all we need to do is to compare the price level for consumer goods and services today with the level prevailing in 1933. Yes, that's right; prices today are much higher than they were in 1933.
And what has been the effect? Yes, just as the inflation bugs predicted, investment has plunged dramatically in the last 75 years, rendering the U.S. a byword for staggering economic decline.
And those living on fixed incomes or from savings have, en masse, been forced to beg whatever crumbs they can garner from illegal immigrants working as crop pickers or car washers. The creation of Social Security merely exacerbated the pauperism that our decades-long monetary inflation has wrought.
The only exceptions are those wise and fortunate souls who have hoarded gold.
If only we as a nation had not inflated our currency starting in 1933, our children and grandchildren would have enjoyed all the marvellous pre-1933 era blessings afforded by Sound Money policies.
But the inflation bug at least can be consoled by the KNOWLEDGE that he was RIGHT, and that the inflationists were wrong.
Now, there are some who will say the right-wing inflation-haters are merely absurd cranks, or absolutely whacko crackpots, or indescribably moronic simpletons, who are fed these stupendously erroneous ideas about monetary economics by the propaganda machine that serves the interests of the ruling plutocracy. But as the simple, clear, and dramatic analysis of the facts which I have provided above PROVES BEYOND ALL DOUBT, these idiotic douchebags actually have the facts on their side. Not, to be sure, the liberal-socialist-collectivist so-called facts, but the facts as derived from the ridiculous, off-the-wall, fruitloop worldview of the inflation bug.
…You know full well that neither CPI nor the PCE are the same since the mid 90-ties, they are so heavily massaged by all sorts of adjustments that only the shadow stats numbers could be directly compared to pre Greenspan stats.
Inflation shall be measured upon what is consumed, not over an arbitrary basket of goods, not over what is produced. Your inflation rate is based on what you consume personally, your company's inflation rate is based on the price change in its inputs. Shadow stats CPI is 10%, BLS' PPI is 7.2%, a far cry from the fictional CPI figures you are quoting that are based on the price levels of goods with lackluster demand.
Demand is directly related to utility, hence even QE N^n will not produce demand for 2nd vacation homes amongst a retiring populace.
Is it possible that although consumer goods are seeing a deflation, 'investment goods' are seeing an inflation, perhaps due to shortage of quality product? In the same way that the CPI can be falling but the price of apples can be rising?
I haven't thought this through but perhaps this explains a bit of the seeming paradoxes?
We've now had two back to back posts on inflation-related topics. Is this really the key issue in the economy right now?
The DOW lost 2,000 points in the last couple of weeks.
I've read all the Rowling books and I never saw that spell. What's it mean?
*sigh* no one was worried about hyperinflation in 2005 and 2006.
gold is a bubble. every event is an excuse to buy it. the best is that its a safe haven. anything without yield and with no guarantee of principal return unless someone greater fool buys it at a higher price, with wild swings in prices of 20% over 3-5months, is not a "safe" haven… its a speculative one.
You just gotta love unintentional irony!
Menzie, can you please comment on one assertion that I have read, that if we measured inflation the exact same way that they did in the Carter administration, that we would have inflation rates the same as we had during the Carter administration?
Here's a piece of analysis I would have welcomed on Econbrower. Pretty straight-forward cyclical-vs-structural budget outlook.
I would also still welcome an analysis of the fiscal, national debt, employment, and systemic financial impact of any potential downturn, given now that the odds of such a downturn exceed 50% based on oil prices, stock market declines, and the Philly mfg survey.
I can't put in words my refutation of your claim of stagnant prices. All I can do is tell you to run a household budget and ask if remotely resembles what the CPI says your prices should be.
Do you pay the bills in your house, Menzie_Chinn?
Hey GK, what a brilliant argument about computer prices! Seems like deflation must be pretty good then! Let's have the Fed launch it in earnest!
Oh, wait, you were probably about to deny any other relevance computer prices might have for monetary policy, weren't you?
What is the average growth of money supply that is consistent with the preservation of domestic employment without incurring further current account deficit?
A currency debasement could happen when excessive credit supply (excessive means actual,total credit and loans at 340% of GDP) is driven towards imported consumers goods and increasing current account deficit.
Yes, gold has no value in your models. Meanwhile, gold owners are stupid all the way to the bank.
As you write write these posts from the Ivory Tower professor, you might want to look up from your keyboard to notice the Cheshire cat in the corner of the room. Those of us who live in the real world know that because Apple Computers comes out with an Ipod every week doesn't mean that prices are deflating, we know that when a truck built two weeks ago is discounted after the model year changes a week later does not indicate deflation and that when packaging for everyday products start shrinking to containing less product that that is an indication of inflation. When CPI ran hot last week, be honest you changed it's characterization to fit your narrative with one word, 'transitory'. Well, how about stickiness? I sincerely hope that you aren't so flippant with your students this semester.
I thought money as a "good" was what could allow goods to go into a general glut (frustrating Say)and the resulting over-demand for "future money" would result in inflation in whatever version of "future money" that the market heard collectively crowded into, with excess capital = failed investment.
You do a good job of putting forward the thesis, "there is little if any risk of high and volatile inflation." Another tack would be to detail exactly what the Fed would have to do to increase the risk of high and volatile inflation. Or, more precisely, at what point would you want to initiate or increase your personal hedge against inflation risk, and what asset would you use?
In my own experience, I judged the risk of high and volatile inflation to start rising, from extremely low levels, when the Fed abandoned its policy of "opportunistic disinflation" in favor of "fight deflation at all costs" in 2002. In response, I decided to purchase a crude but effective hedge. I have held the asset since as each major action the Fed (and Treasury) has undertaken since 2002 has increased that risk. In other words, the set of Fed actions over the years has steadily met the necessary — but not sufficient — conditions that ultimately led to high inflation in other countries.
You see, hedging behavior is not absolute, not binary: you don't have to believe hyperinflation will happen tomorrow to want to increase your insurance against it occurring. When would you increase your insurance?
BTW, I was wrong to mention the term, "hyperinflation", above. This phenomena is exceedingly rare, and it tends to serve as a straw man in the inflation debate. Rather, the risk is of high and volatile inflation.
W.C. Varones: The irony of your "joke" is that it was one told by non-rational-expectations economists of rational expectations economists. You really should learn a bit more about economics before pontificating about economics.
baychev and Buzzcut: I suggest you suggest Jim Hamilton's post on Shadowstats, and the BLS report referenced therein, particularly endnote 57.
matthew: The CPI is rising, so there is no deflation in consumer prices at the moment. What is true is certain components are falling, and certain highly visible components are rising — some faster than the overall CPI (energy/transportation, medical care).
David: Regarding packaging sizes and inflation — you really should study how BLS conducts its (no apostrophe!) surveys of prices.
Silas Barta: Re: paying bills. Answer: yes. Truly, if you think I'm in the ivory tower, you (a) haven't seen Sewell Hall at UW, and (b) don't know many academic economists.
Anonymous 5:49AM: In this case, "A Man for All Seasons" would be more useful.
Earthquake here in New York. NYPD wants to evacuate the building.
Inflation shall be measured upon what is consumed, not over an arbitrary basket of goods, not over what is produced.
Which supports my point that Gold is a terrible metric of inflation, oil is a good one, and technological products are in fact 'consumed' to a greater degree than gold.
a far cry from the fictional CPI figures you are quoting that are based on the price levels of goods with lackluster demand.
James Hamilton used the official CPI in the article right before this one. So I suppose you think he is wrong.
To ignore the force of technological deflation in the 2011 world economy is to think in outdated terms.
Gold was a great investment ten years ago, but it's overpriced right now. If it were such a great basis for running a monetary system, we would have seen the handful of gold-smart economies cleaning the floor with the rest of us. The last few countries on the gold standard gave up ages ago when they couldn't compete with all the fiat currency types. Gold is a commodity, like oil or pistachio nuts. It goes up. It goes down. It has its uses, but it isn't magic.
Here's another way of looking at "inflation" and the extent to which "debasement" of the currency has occurred, or not.
Look at M2 + inst. MMFs (M2+) as a share of industrial production (IP) to discern the relative rate of growth of debt-money inflation to value-add production and associated capital stock to sustain production.
From '74-'82 M2+ grew at an annualized rate of nearly 6-7% to IP's 2.7%. IP has not grown at all in 11-12 years, whereas M2+ to IP during the period grew 6%.
The US since '82 has created an order of exponential magnitude of debt-money assets to the underlying productive capacity of the domestic economy.
IOW, debt-money since '99 (the onset of the secular bear market for stocks and the slow-motion depression) has cumulatively grown at an order of exponential magnitude faster than IP, implying that, to achieve essentially no growth of IP, M2+ must now accelerate at a faster-than-exponential rate, requiring avg. annualized growth of 17% (doubling time of 4 years) hereafter.
It ain't gonna happen, folks, or at least not for long.
This is what the price of gold is anticipating.
Adjusted for debt-money supply and the debt-money supply-adjusted price of gold, the US$ has fallen 80-85% from its cyclical high in the early '00s; that is, the US$ has already crashed; therefore, it is among the cheapest vehicles (everything else in US$ terms is grossly overpriced, including gold and commodities, stocks, real estate, the euro, yen, etc.) for relative purchasing power hereafter on the planet at present.
The larger inference is that the share of debt-money supply attributable to bank lending will contract, i.e., debt-money deflation, at the differential long-term rate of growth of IP and M2+ at 3.5-4%/yr. for the rest of the decade or longer.
The only net growth of M2+ (perhaps none at points along the way) will come from further expansion of reserves and currency by the Fed, gov't net dissavings, if any, and net liquidation of stocks, corporate bonds, and real estate and falling nominal prices hereafter.
The bulk of the Fed printing will go to monetizing net interest payments on the US debt held by the public; therefore, very little, if any, additional increases in central bank debt-money reserves will make it to the economy in the form of increasing bank lending or incremental gov't "stimulus".
Consequently, I expect M2+ to grow no faster than 2-2.5% for the rest of the decade, with falling multiplier and velocity, stock prices and the S&P 500 P/E falling steadily, and little or no growth of nominal profits (mass consolidation of capacity and many millions more jobs lost in the meantime).
As a result of the no or negative returns to equities and 0-2% yields for fixed-income assets, private and public pensions will have to be cut by 30-50% for Boomer retirees.
Risk aversion and liquidity preference among Baby Boomers will increase and reach extremes as the decade progresses, as only as few as 10% of Boomers will be able to enjoy what is perceived as "retirement", with 80% having to rely on meager Social Security transfers, little or no savings, and help from family. Those Boomers thinking they can work in late life will find fewer jobs available and increasing competition from their children and grandchildren.
I'm not sure I see the conflict with Matthew's point of view. First, stock markets react faster in many cases than underlying asset prices. Thus, drilling assets like drillships are again seeing such high prices that Maersk, a company with a drilling fleet, has decided to hold off on new acquisitions for now. If the stock market remains depressed, then that can only mean the economy is in recession (otherwise the stock market would bounce back, I think), and then asset prices will also fall. In the case of oil assets, the fall may come with a decline in economic activity (and oil prices) rather than due to swings in financial markets.
High energy prices–and subsequent prices increases in food and other energy intensive products–result from China's high demand growth for commodities, which is supplied from a productive capacity that is relatively hard to expand. The high price of assets results from China's high savings rate, which puts additional liquidity into the market. So food "inflation" (mostly a real price increase) and high asset prices can be viewed as flip sides of the same coin, I think.
In principal, the gains from low capital costs, cheap Chinese imports, and potential Chinese exports should offset the higher cost of commodities-based products. But there is no clear guarantee, I think, that these are temporally coincident. So the benefit (cheap lawn chairs from Wal-Mart) might precede the cost (higher oil prices). Further, if oil is an enabling commodity, such that other activities depend on it, it is not entirely clear to me that the gains from trade would offset the costs, because the economic losses from high oil prices would be substantially greater than the increased cost of oil itself–at least for the period of time necessary to re-tool the economy to a lower energy budget.
Are you aware of what happened the last time gold shot up very high in price? That was over 30 years ago, when were actually having real inflation, getting into the double digit range in the US, with it in triple digits in many countries around the globe. Indeed, in real terms it got even higher than it is today, somewhat higher than $2000 per ounce, a price that it is nearing now.
Of course, shortly after getting to that level, it crashed down to about a third of the price it reached in nominal terms and stayed there for a cool 20 years. Yeah, great inflation hedge/store of wealth.
As you may know, the earthquake was seemingly centered in northern Virginia. After some investigation, they have identified the source. Apparently, it was the Tea Party, trying to shake up government.
Gold is subject to the same re-allocation dynamics as oil, with consumption moving from the OECD to the non-OECD, fueled by rapidly rising non-OECD demand for jewelry and a slowly growing gold supply.
Gold is different from oil, however, in that i) it is not an enabling commodity, ergo, shouldn't bring down the global economy regardless of price, ii) is not consumed like oil, and iii) is purchased as a store of value.
Personally, I don't have a clear sense on the split between gold as store of value and gold as jewelry. But I can tell you it's not 1983. I would anticipate that gold would continue to appreciate in value (over the long term, at some pace), and will come to be perceived more the way we have traditionally thought of diamonds. I think the world of affordable gold jewelry is probably gone for good.
Menzie suffers fools gladly. Don't know how you can expend the intellectual energy.
Yes, I'm quite familiar with gold's history. And it may indeed have a sharp pullback after its big recent run.
Gold is volatile but holds its value extremely well over the long run, something that cannot be said of dollars. I can hold through volatility.
I know you have had a little exposure to portfolio theory. Look at gold's returns, volatility, and correlation with other asset classes during fiat currency regimes, and I think you'll discover that a small allocation to gold is an essential part of any balanced portfolio.
The "irony" of your comment is that while I am quite aware of the background of the joke, that is completely irrelevant to the current discussion. In case you still don't get it, it was a reference to certain economists who don't let the facts get in the way of a good theory.
W.C. Varones: But it's you that — when confronted with the fact that money is not losing value against a bundle of goods at an particularly high rate — redefines a phenomenon so that the facts "fit" (debasement is now increasing quantity — when the money supply has been increasing pretty much since 1776). So it seems to me that you're the person insisting the $10 dollar bill isn't there.
Now you're just repeating yourself. Please go back and read my original comments.
Your definition, that debasement = CPI, may well be the only definition of debasement that you and your professors ever considered, but it is not the only definition. Nor is it the historical definition, the dictionary definition, or, in my humble opinion, the best definition.
Yet instead of considering my argument, you just keep stating that debasement = CPI.
If you're not even capable of considering the idea that the Fed can "debase" the dollar while economic conditions keep demand and inflation low, then there's no point continuing this discussion.
Finally, for those still under the misconception that the dollar is a store of value, please see the calculator on the Minneapolis Fed's own web site, and see what's happened to the dollar since the Fed came out in 1913. There's a graphical representation here. And yes, I know that you take low-single-digit inflation as both a given and a good thing, another assumption you might want to question some time.
W.C. Varones: Hmm — you stated quite explicitly the CPI was not a valid indicator of debasement. That's the first line I quoted. Then you throw out a bunch of other definitions that involve quantities. Well, I think you are right that the discussion has reached the point of diminishing returns, and we let the readers decide upon what definition of debasement makes most sense.
By the way, you still haven't answered why you keep on calling Fed Chair Bernanke "Zimbabwe Ben" if it's not an allusion to hyperinflation (admittedly, hyperinflation as conventionally defined by us narrow-minded macroeconomists as the rapid loss of money's exchange value against a bundle of goods).
The Germans started printing in 1918. Inflation was moderate just like now. 22 was when it took off.
Yes, "Zimbabwe Ben" is obviously an allusion to hyperinflation, but it is intended as hyperbole and humor, not as a prediction of imminent hyperinflation.
I cannot take credit for the "Zimbabwe Ben" moniker. It was coined at Skeptical CPA and popularized there and at Jr. Deputy Accountant.
Does Bernanke know that he's totally screwed, that he has the power to create asset and commodity inflation but not to match it with wage inflation?
Crude was $80 then, gold was $1237, and the S&P was at 1170. QE2 drove all three much higher, while wages remained stagnant and unemployment remained horrible. Crude and the S&P have since fallen back as demand remained weak. All of this is consistent with the dollar being debased while the sick economy keeps a lid on consumer inflation.
Your perception of technology is flawed: you are looking at megabytes, RAM, not at raw inputs, not by marginal utility. If you take smartphones, tablets for example, they pack a lot more MB/CPU clicks, but their utility is constrained to consumption, whereas you need a PC for production. Furthermore, on Win XP you can do about the same work with VS2005 that you can on the latest Win 7 & VS2010. The utility is roughly the same, the real price is slightly up, the CPI used price has deflated. This is biased stats with the clear intention to deceive.
Yeah, the CPI wasn't really the point of my comment – the rate of change is low, it's fair to say. What I was asking is whether it's possible you could have low inflation in consumer goods and high "inflation" in investment goods, because of huge shortages of quality products.
Simon – I don't see the irony there. The S&P might simply be composed of poor quality investment goods. A better irony might be the US Treasury is producing high quality investment goods as fast as it can.
Gold is a poor substitute to use as a measure of inflation fears. It is a good substitute for economic fears. Gold does very well during periods of deflation. Gold is not a currency and there is not adequate supplies of it to establish as a currency in a world wide economy. It is only portable in small quantities. Blips move more money a lot faster. In times of a true crisis gold may be worthless.
I suspect that is the truth of modern gold. Since the only value in gold is what individuals assign to it, in a collapse of society, do you want to go fishing or hold onto your gold?
Everybody gets it that gold is not, in and of itself, a currency. All the same, when one can walk into businesses such as barbershops (at least two that I know of in NYC) and sell your gold at spot, then it might as well be.
"Please don't feed the trolls" is very sound advice. Posts like this not simply a waste of time, they're counterproductive. I can't be the only econbrowser fan whose browsing experience is suffering from this.
"Trolls" is a pejorative most commonly used by insecure, narrow-minded people afraid to have their worldview challenged.
On the matter of whether we will see a repeat of the Ford/Carter years with inflation rates well north of 5% for many years in a row…I think that is possible. I agree that fluctuations in the monetary aggregates are next to useless in predicting long term price changes. However, I don't think that is where the risk lies. When currencies were based on gold, general price inflation occurred whenever substantial new supplies of gold were found. Not all of that gold was minted into money. It was the relative supply of the underlying asset, not the aggregate money supply that drove the increase in prices.
US Treasury debt is a claim against future tax revenues. The US economy exists now and creditors presume it will go on existing. The US government exists now and creditors presume it will go on existing. Just like refining gold ore into bullion, the US Treasury converts future tax revenues into an asset (debt) that can serve as the basis for a monetary system.
If one goes back and looks at the 1970s, Federal debt more than doubled in a decade while real GDP increased ca. 40%. If a monetary base (in this usage I mean debt, not M1) increases in pace with the growth in the economy, one would expect price stability. If the monetary base increase far outstrips the growth in the economy…one expects inflation. And that's what we got.
So…circling back to the instant discussion, everyone expects the US debt to increase dramatically over the next 10 to 15 years and the GDP…ehn, not so much. Thus, I can envision Ford/Carter style inflation in our future.
Perhaps the best counter argument to what I wrote above is Japan (stratospheric debt with stagnant or falling prices). Before anyone offers that up to me, I would point out that well over 90% of Japanese gov't debt is held by the government or agencies strongly allied with the government (analogous to the SSA holding a big chunk of US debt). So, a large portion of assets on which the yen is based is not a freely circulating asset. Contrast this to US Treasury debt, which is freely traded throughout much of the world. Furthermore, Japan's forex account (in US$) is ca. 10% of the world float of the yen (valued in US$). One could argue that the yen is a bad counter argument to the proposition I presented above because Japan has aggressively maintained the status of the yen…or, perhaps, they had no choice but to work for deflation as their 20+ year experiment with QE would have blown up with significant inflation.


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Queen Elizabeth Hosts In-Person Reception After Health Fears
The 95-year-old monarch withdrew from an annual event remembering Britain's war dead on Sunday with a "sprained back", the latest of several cancelled appearances that have added to fears about her health.
Queen Elizabeth II on Wednesday held a face-to-face audience with Britain's highest-ranking military officer, almost a month after her last public appearance.
But she welcomed chief of defence staff Nick Carter at her Windsor Castle residence west of London to mark his departure from the role.
Carter was in full ceremonial uniform chatting to the queen, who was wearing a green, orange and white floral dress in the castle's Oak Room and standing unaided, weeks after she had been seen using a walking stick.
Video footage showed Carter being greeted by the monarch's dachshund-corgi cross, Candy, who lay on the red-carpeted floor by the door as they spoke.
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But within 24 hours, royal officials were forced to confirm a newspaper report that she had spent the night at a private hospital in central London after unspecified tests.
Aides insisted the overnight stay was for "practical reasons" and she had resumed "light duties", including holding video calls with incoming ambassadors.
Speculation about her health was fuelled on October 26, however, when she withdrew from a planned appearance at the UN climate change summit this month.
Again, it followed "advice to rest" from doctors and instead sent a video message to world leaders, urging them to take collective action to halt runaway global warming.
Her eldest son and heir, Prince Charles, 73, attended the event in her absence and is currently representing her on an overseas visit to Jordan and Egypt.
Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson has sought to reassure the public about the queen's health.
On Sunday, he said he had an audience with her, but without cameras, last Wednesday, telling reporters: "She was very well."
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Ukraine prevents Italian journalist from entering its territory
The Ukrainian authorities refused to allow Italian journalist to their territory to cover the presidential election, accusing him of bias against the country.
The newspaper "Fox News" US on Monday that Kiev prevented the Italian journalist Marc Enaru, working as a correspondent for the official television in Rome from entering Ukraine to cover the presidential elections scheduled for Sunday.
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Ukraine recently banned another journalist from Australia for what it said was a "threat to national security".
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This section of the AnabolicMenu online store offers you to buy steroids that have a legal status and are not prohibited from purchase on the Internet. For professional bodybuilders, the given drugs do not serve to obtain a huge muscle mass, their anabolic effect is not very large, their main task is to preserve the previously achieved result and the use during the drying period. However, beginning athletes and women, when using these products, can achieve excellent results, the result will not be manifested as quickly as from heavy steroids, but the obtained muscle mass will not disappear after the end of these drugs' usage. Thanks to this gentle effect on athletes, these drugs do not fall into the lists of potent substances. This allows them to be widely used in almost all sports, depending on the desired result. This category of sports pharmacology can increase the effectiveness of athletes, swimmers, basketball players and football players or help athletes to get into the right weight category in competitions.
Drugs from this section have an excellent effect on the human body, both individually and in combination with others, perfectly combining with strong steroids as a supplement to complex courses of anabolic steroids. In addition, light steroids are very popular for use after the course therapy, they are extremely effective as they help to maintain the achieved results, while effectively dealing with the catabolism and preventing the disintegration of muscle tissue.
Our AnabolicMenu online store gives proper attention to women athletes. Especially for them, in this section, the safest and most effective drugs are selected. This product most gently effects the female body and it is able to preserve and emphasize female beauty. Virtually all products presented in this section have a fat burning effect. They are perfect for fitness and help you to achieve a good result and get an attractive body in a short time. While using our products, you can train both in the gym and at home, regardless of the type of workout, you will achieve good results, because our product works not only during the training, but also during the time you rest and sleep.
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Investing for Retirement: Beware the Unicorn IPO Stampede
By Antonella Puca, CFA, CIPM, CPA
Posted In: Economics, Equity Investments, Portfolio Management
In medieval and Renaissance allegories, unicorns are rare and wild creatures that signify honesty, fidelity, purity, and healing.
In the world of finance, unicorns are venture-capital- (VC-)backed and privately funded companies with valuations in excess of $1 billion that are no longer so rare — and may not always be so pure. And that's something investment advisers need to be especially mindful of. Why? Because unicorns are about to enter the initial public offering (IPO) market and become part of index funds that have a significant presence in retirement portfolios.
Earlier this month, the ride-sharing service Lyft kicked off what is expected to be a record year for unicorn IPOs by filing its pre-IPO Form S-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Lyft, which will be listed on the NASDAQ as LYFT, represents a whole new breed of unicorns that are galloping around global capital markets. Many of today's unicorns are poised for IPOs despite losing quite a lot of money. Indeed, Lyft incurred a net operating loss of $911.3 million in 2018.
While such unicorns have strong growth prospects, they often have uncertain paths to profitability. They may be at the forefront of innovation, but many of them are also early-stage enterprises with a high chance of failure. And that's why analysts and investors need to beware: As unicorns go public, they are added to major large-cap indexes and, through the mechanics of index funds and passive investing, find their way into portfolios all along the income and wealth spectrum, including portfolios with retirement savings. This exposes these portfolios to the risks — and potential rewards — currently associated with VC investing.
According to recent data from CB Insights, there are now more than 150 unicorns in the United States alone and sizeable cohorts in China, the EU, India, Singapore, Israel, Canada, Japan, and elsewhere. The US list includes high-profile enterprises that have transformed our consumer experience — from Lyft and WeWork to Airbnb and Epic Games.
US Unicorns, Cumulative and New, 2006–2018*
* As of year-end 2018
Source: CB Insights 2018 (cumulative); Preqin (all other data)
Which brings us back to Lyft. The company started operations in 2012 in California and reached unicorn status in 2015. For 2018, the company reported revenues of $2.2 billion, twice its 2017 revenues. The $911.3 million net operating loss was up from $688.3 million in 2017 and was mostly driven by its fleet of drivers and expenses related to intangible assets. With expenses of $3.1 billion, Lyft had a revenue/expense ratio of 68.8% for 2018, which is comparable to that of the median tech IPO in 1998 and 2001, which fell in the 60%–80% range.
The median revenues/expense ratio of tech IPOs bottomed out below 60% in 2000 and has been above 80% throughout the 2002–17 period. A significant component of Lyft's expenses relates to its intangible assets and might be more properly capitalized as an asset on the balance sheet instead of an expense on the income statement. Still, Lyft's revenue/expense ratio is historically in the low range of tech company IPOs.
In the S-1, Lyft's management emphasizes the importance of key performance indicators (KPIs), such as revenue per active driver, rides by annual cohort, number of bookings, and revenue per booking in evaluating the company's operating results. Lyft's US ride-sharing market share was 39% in December 2018, up from 22% in December 2016. For the quarter ended 31 December 2018, Lyft had 18.6 million active riders and over 1.1 million drivers. These KPIs support Lyft's expected IPO valuation despite negative free cash flows and no profits generated to date.
Aswath Damoradan recently estimated the value of Lyft's equity at approximately $16 billion, including $2 billion from the IPO, at about $59 per share. He also estimated the possibility of Lyft failing within the next 10 years at 10%. Were that 30%, all other factors being equal, the IPO's estimated valuation would be adjusted to $13.3 billion, or $47.7 per share. Because the IPO is oversubscribed, the actual IPO valuation will likely fall in the $20–$25 billion range.
After its IPO and a related "suspension" period, Lyft will become eligible for inclusion in various US large-cap indexes. The S&P 500 Index demands four straight quarters of positive as-reported earnings as part of its criteria. Other indexes, however, have far less stringent requirements. For instance, the NASDAQ 100 forbids an issuer in bankruptcy proceedings from issuing securities but does not have positive cash flow or earnings requirements. Lyft will also be eligible for inclusion in certain CRSP capitalization indexes designed to represent the market of investable US equity securities based primarily on size. Popular exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the NASDAQ 100, and the Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (VV), which tracks the CRSP US Large-Cap Index, will end up holding many Lyft shares after the IPO.
The financial industry has been working hard to rebuild public trust since the Great Recession. Unicorn IPOs can offer significant return opportunities for investors and better distribute the wealth generated by VC markets. But in IPOs where initial unicorn shareholders will gain immediate benefits, a few questions need to be answered: Are these firms worth the cash that the IPO listing will provide them? What is the probability that cash-burning unicorns will end up turning a profit, and when? Which unicorns will be capable of long-term value creation for their investors?
Ultimately, the financial industry is responsible for providing the transparency investors deserve and ethics dictate. If unicorns are integrated into ETFs and mutual fund portfolios, investors must be adequately informed and receive suitable advice about how such companies fit into their index fund holdings. They can then make informed decisions on whether an exposure to VC-style securities, either directly or through index funds, is suitable for their investment goals.
Image credit: Domenichino, Public Domain
Tags: equities, financial analysis, Initial Public Offering (IPO), Investment Management Strategies, Investment Products and Asset Classes
Antonella Puca, CFA, CIPM, CPA
Antonella Puca, CFA, CIPM, CPA/ABV, CEIV, is a managing director at BlueVal Group, LLC, a valuation services firm with a focus on the valuation of privately held companies in the United States. Prior to BlueVal, she was part of the alternative investment group at KPMG/Rothstein Kass, where she helped launch RK's Bay Area practice, the global hedge fund practice of EY in San Francisco and New York, and the financial services team at RSM US LLP in New York. Puca served as a director in the ethics and professional standards group at CFA Institute and as a volunteer focused on certifications and curriculum programs. She has served as an executive committee member of the board of the CFA Society of New York and as a member of AIMA's research committee. She will be joining the Business Valuation Committee of the AICPA effective May 2019 and is currently writing a book on the Valuation of Early Stage Enterprises: A Fair Value Update with expected release in the Spring of 2020 (Wiley). Puca is licensed as a CPA in California and New York. She is accredited in business valuation (AICPA), holds the valuation analyst and the entity and intangibles valuation certifications. Puca is a member of the Italian Professional Association of Journalists. She holds a degree in economics with honors from the University "Federico II" of Naples, Italy, and a master of law studies in taxation from NYU Law School. She has been an adjunct faculty member at New York University, a research fellow at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and a member of the 420 Italian National Sailing Team.
1 thought on "Investing for Retirement: Beware the Unicorn IPO Stampede"
Michael Varga says:
Interesting article, thank you! Could these be a particular topic that lends credence to the notion of volatility and smart beta controlled indexes that may avoid these type of holdings?


The broad field of animal-assisted interventions (AAI) has grown in popularity and publicity in the past decade. One hears more and more reports in the media about the value of animals involved in visitation programs to hospitals and schools, reading-to-animal programs shown to increase children's reading scores, and a wide range of programs for military service members struggling with reintegration and post-traumatic stress disorder. These developments are separate from those in the assistance dog world. In general, AAI programs involve practitioners' own companion animals brought into an environment in which they can offer psychosocial benefits to those experiencing physical or mental health difficulties.
This article looks at the needs of animals, very often dogs, cats, and horses, who are involved in animal-assisted therapy (AAT), in which practicing professionals in mental health, allied health, and education include animals to improve the outcomes of their work (Chandler, 2017; Fine, 2015; Parish-Plass, 2013; VanFleet, 2008). While AAT has been practiced for decades, awareness of the animals' needs when involved in AAT has lagged behind the glowing popular reports of benefits to humans. While most AAT practitioners would likely affirm their desire to treat the animals they work with humanely, there seems to be divergence between these desires and actual practice. This lack of congruence between intentions and behaviors is likely the result of a lack of awareness. This article offers an overview of ways in which the animals' points of view can be better represented in this work, and roles that animal professionals can play in assisting therapists to enhance the welfare of the animals they incorporate into their work.
It is all too common to see photographs and videos of therapy animals proudly displayed by practitioners in which the animals look disengaged, and sometimes even miserable. It seems that enthusiasm for the benefits animals bring to human clients can cloud practitioners' ability to see clearly what the experience is like for the animals. It behooves all those involved in AAT to become more aware of how animals are reacting to the jobs being given to them. The animals, after all, are conscripts into such services.
Most major organizations that register animals or teams for AAI typically look at the animals' ability to pass certain behavioral tests. If the animals pass all the tests, it is assumed that they are appropriate for the work. This approach does not adequately consider the animal's point of view, however, especially in professional AAT, where the relationships during the process are more involved and intricate than in visitation programs. During the past 15 years, a different model has been developed by the International Institute for Animal Assisted Play Therapy™, which is committed to the welfare and voluntary involvement of animals in the AAT process. It is hoped that some features of this model might be considered in other programs as well. They are detailed in VanFleet and Faa-Thompson (2017). In essence, it requires much more in-depth knowledge about animals by the practitioners themselves. Because of this, collaborations between animal professionals and AAT professionals are strongly encouraged. Some key features of this model are briefly considered below.
"Goodness of fit" is a concept from the child development literature that suggests that the better the fit between a child's personality and his/her environment, the better the overall adjustment. When applied to AAT this suggests that the better the fit between an animal's personality and interests and the job the animal is being asked to perform, the more likely the animal will thrive. Mismatches between individual animals and their work environments lead to poorer adaptation and potential welfare issues. This model requires that AAT practitioners, with the help of appropriate animal professionals, develop clear understanding of each animal's personality and interests and involve the animal only in work that matches that. Mismatches are avoided completely. For example, an animal that shows even slight signs of anxiety around children would not be expected to participate in programs involving children.
In many ways, goodness-of-fit involves the well-informed selection of animals for the roles that are intended for them. It also requires flexibility, because animals selected for one purpose simply might not turn out to be suitable for that role. Much as job applicants are selected based on their match with job descriptions, animals are selected based on how well they are suited for the AAT roles expected of them. Round pegs are never pushed into square holes, and sometimes plans must be changed or abandoned. For example, my now-retired play therapy dog, Kirrie, showed me early on that she was not well-suited to nondirective play therapy, in which the therapist (and the dog) does not become involved directly in the child's play unless the child asks. Kirrie always wanted to be completely involved with the children, and although I could ask her to stay on a mat until the child asked for her involvement, I could see that she was somewhat stressed doing that. It was hard for her to watch child activity without being part of it. On the other hand, she excelled at more directive forms of play therapy, where the therapist structures the situation a bit more, suggesting certain activities. Kirrie eagerly did whatever she was asked, and she loved training activities, games, and interactions in which she was an active participant. Sometimes she even "suggested" new ideas, and it was useful to the therapeutic process when child clients could decide to do it Kirrie's way some of the time. Knowing that these were Kirrie's natural inclinations, I rarely involved her in nondirective play therapy and frequently included her in more directive interventions for the 10 years of her career with me.
Behavior consultants know the great importance of proper socialization of animals, and this applies to work they are asked to do every bit as much as it does to family life. Practitioners of AAT might be less well informed about the importance of socialization, and this is where partnerships between mental health, allied health, and educational professionals and animal behavior professionals can offer considerable benefit to the AAT process. Training for future roles is important, too, and it is important that it be positive in nature. This not only ensures that the animals enjoy and respond well to the training process, but it provides a model for clients who are exposed to the animal in sessions. The way that the professionals interact with their animals is on display as a model and a metaphor for their clients, so it is critical that it conveys mutual respect and positive interactions. A culmination of all this shows in the relationship the practitioner develops with the animal. Healthy relationships built on trust and respect are essential for any type of AAT work. While few would argue with this premise, what it means in terms of the details of actual interactions seems to have less agreement among various professionals involved. Are knotted pressure halters acceptable for horses? Bits? Is it okay for dogs to wear prong collars while working? What if an animal shows several different stress signals whenever going into the workplace? If the model of a mutually respectful relationship is used, it has implications for all of these questions. The more fully that practitioners can learn and embrace ongoing socialization, positive training, and healthy relationship development, the clearer these issues become. Here again are roles that animal behavior professionals can play.
For example, a 9-year-old boy had been deeply frightened by his mother's boyfriend who had (illegal) fighting dogs. The man had threatened the boy with the dogs on numerous occasions. The boy was removed from the home and placed in foster care. He began to display some unkind and potentially threatening behaviors toward the foster family's dog, but the roots of his behavior were his fear and the boyfriend's past behaviors. In therapy, he learned how to have a kind, caring relationship with the therapy dog while engaging in behaviors to keep himself safe. His therapist had learned positive training and interaction methods so she could always demonstrate a respectful relationship with her dog while helping the boy develop the same. Had she used any type of coercive technique it would likely have undermined their progress. The boy did well in therapy and the foster parents reported that the unwanted behaviors toward their family dog stopped after just a handful of sessions.
Not all AAT is the same. Very often the literature about AAT does not define specifically enough what is expected of the animal or what the animal does. In fact, it seems that many think of AAT as a uniform practice in which the animal is present and clients interact by petting or through a variety of gentle activities. This is not always the case. For example, in Animal-Assisted Play Therapy™ (AAPT), therapists help clients engage in a very wide range of action-oriented and playful activities ranging from spontaneous play to quite structured games and training activities (VanFleet, 2008; VanFleet & Faa-Thompson, 2010; VanFleet & Faa-Thompson, 2017; in press). Specific activities are designed for specific objectives, but the forms they can take are many, with different degrees of structure and animal involvement. When animal professionals work with AAT professionals, it is important to get details about the types of things the animal is expected to do in that particular setting. In many cases, animal professionals can provide useful ideas about how to accomplish certain goals while making it enjoyable for clients and animals alike.
Because much professional AAT includes an ongoing relationship in a specialized environment between client and animal, it is vital that practitioners become fluent in their ability to understand animal communication signals. The better they are able to recognize and interpret the body language of their animals, the better they can see potentially stressful situations, intervene earlier, and ensure the well-being of client and animal alike. Rather than expecting their animals to accept intrusive human behaviors, practitioners who are informed about their animals' physical and emotional reactions to situations are much more able to intervene appropriately. A premium is placed on understanding the ethology of the species with which they work, as well as knowing their own individual animals extremely well. This goes beyond a basic understanding of stress signals and requires the ability to read and understand the body language of their animals in real time, as it is happening. This is a high-level skill that not only helps with risk management, but assures that the animal's point of view is represented in all decisions that the practitioner makes.
For example, a therapist was involving a group of three single-parent families in an equine AAPT program. During one session, the families were to build an obstacle course and then work together to get three horses to move through it without using a lead rope. They were allowed to touch the horses and to give them a maximum of three carrots. The rest of the problem solving was up to the families as the therapist watched. The therapist had been through AAPT training and was watching the horses at the same time as she watched the families' dynamics. In the middle of the activity, she noticed that one of her horses was extending his neck and putting his ears back in an attempt to move another of the horses out of a certain space. She was able to interrupt the activity and ask the families to observe what was happening with the horses. She briefly discussed it with them and then suggested that the families incorporate what they had observed about the horses into their problem solving. They were able to make some adjustments to keep themselves aware of the horse-horse dynamics and to adjust the space in the obstacle course and their handling of the carrots to keep themselves safe while still solving the problem. The families were pleased that they could be creative while still considering the horses' needs as they mastered the challenge.
While many AAI programs have very good reasons for requiring that dogs remain on leash and that horses are on a lead rope, this approach does not work well for AAPT, in which many action-oriented interactions are involved, nor for some forms of occupational therapy or physical therapy, for example, where more freedom of movement is advantageous to the therapy. In these cases, it is desirable to work with animals off-leash or at-liberty, where the animals are free to move in and out of the space as they see fit.
To do this, practitioners once again require a substantially higher level of understanding of animal behavior and training than is traditional for AAI. Once certain animal-related competencies are achieved, working with animals that are free to move offers a number of benefits to the therapeutic process and to the animals themselves. If animals are free to make choices about their involvement, it helps the therapy become a more genuine experience. The dog is not being held in place next to the client; the dog is choosing to be with the client. The impact of this can be profound in mental health work. If the animal chooses to move away from the client, then the practitioner can work on the issues that might stir up for the clients, so the animal choices can be incorporated into the therapeutic process either way. When practitioners learn always to provide an escape route for the animals, the animals can make their own choices, and in so doing, their welfare is more likely to be preserved. These benefits to both the therapeutic process and to the animals come only at the price of greater training and competency on the part of practitioners in terms of their working knowledge of their animals. Once again, collaborative relationships between AAT and animal professionals can benefit all involved in the process.
When people ask animals to work in various forms of AAT, the needs of the animals are not always considered sufficiently. When practitioners are educated in greater depth so that they develop significant competencies in animal behavior and welfare, it is likely that the animals will experience the process more positively while practitioners can enhance the quality of human-animal interactions that they demonstrate to their clients and help their clients achieve for themselves.
The author will be presenting on this topic in some detail at this October's APDT conferences in both the U.S. and Australia.
Risë VanFleet, PhD, RPT-S, CDBC is a child/family psychologist, certified dog behavior consultant, and founder of the International Institute for Animal Assisted Play Therapy™. She is the author of dozens of books and articles in the play therapy field, many of them winning awards. She has received international recognition for her training seminars, including a recent honor from the Pennsylvania Psychological Association, The Distinguished Contributions to the Science and Profession of Psychology Award. She conducts seminars on Animal Assisted Play Therapy™, working effectively with people for animal professionals, working with highly fearful and traumatized dogs, and subjects relating to ethics and welfare in animal assisted interventions. She offers several online courses related to animal behavior and therapy, helps therapists select and train dogs for mental health therapy, and consults about behavior problems. She can be reached through www.risevanfleet.com.


At the beginning of next year, Lord & Taylor will close its Fifth Avenue flagship after a 104-year run. Owner Hudson's Bay Co. sold the 676,000-square-foot Italian Renaissance building to WeWork for $850 million a year ago in an attempt to keep the department store brand afloat. With just a few months left at their storied location, Lord & Taylor will launch on Thursday a final "store closing" sale that will last through the holidays, according to the Post. And speaking of the holidays, they've also decided that instead of their normal six window displays between 38th and 39th Streets, they'll only decorate two this holiday season.
The 103-year-old landmarked Lord & Taylor flagship store at 424 Fifth Avenue may be getting a luxurious makeover. As the New York Post learned, the speculative project includes constructing a steel-and-glass skyscraper and redeveloping the building into an office and residential tower, keeping the 11-story department store as the base. Sources tell the Post that NYC property executive Richard Baker, who acquired Lord & Taylor in 2008, is behind the development talks. And though few details are known, "real estate insiders" point out that nearby towers rise as high as 60 stories.


Istanbul is an old city which literally lies on two continents: Asia and Europe. People like to call it the place where East meets West. Istanbul combines the best of traditional and modern life all in one. The call to prayer echoes five times per day in this city that is 99% Islamic. Yet the city retains its modern and shining colorful neon lights. This is a city which you will never feel to be foreign. I have visited this city twice in the last few years. I did not stay that long either time, but each time I got a nice cup of tea from a local to welcome me and to get to know me. This city is bursting with charm and warmth.


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UPDATE: Suspicious vials found in Mississippi building tested by Homeland Security, most of streets open in Natchez downtown
Published 5:15 am Friday, December 16, 2022
Clear vials of liquid, that some feared contained potentially dangerous chemicals likely were part of a kit to test for the presence of such chemicals, officials said Thursday after a large portion of downtown Natchez was closed down out of precaution.
Homeland Security personnel had arrived at about 3:15 p.m. Thursday and began testing a substance found in vials at the Historic Natchez Foundation.
"Testing is continuing, but they think what is in the vials is mostly charcoal. If it is a test kit, it would contain a tiny amount of the chemical, but because of how long it has been, the chemical would be inactive," Natchez Police Chief Cal Green said.
Such test kits were readily available in the 1920s through 1940s, she said.
The vials were discovered Thursday morning at Historic Natchez Foundation. Markings in the vials led to concerns that they could contain potentially dangerous chemicals. The foundation office was evacuated and a portion of downtown blocked off while a team of Homeland Security investigators were called in to examine the vials.
All roads downtown with the exception of the 100 block of Commerce Street are now open.
Green said no one has been injured during the incident.
Mississippi nursing educators pleased with efforts to help with shortage
Mississippi officials searching for 14-year-old runaway. Official warn adults helping child could be charged with kidnapping.


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Q: How to set custom resolution for screen recording using media recorder in android programmatically? I am actually implementing screen recording in android devices. I want my videos to be recorded in custom resolution before recording like 360p , 480p , 720p.
I've tried to set height and width in mediaRecorder.setVideoSize(width*height) but it only changes the size of screen recording .

A: You should use CamcorderProfile and hasProfile() to see what profiles are supported on the device, and choose from those.
See the documentation here for the list of defined resolutions:
https://developer.android.com/reference/android/media/CamcorderProfile
Here is another guide which may help as well:
https://medium.com/jamesob-com/recording-your-android-screen-7e0e75aae260

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


You know what they say: when life gives you lemons, call the police and have them shut down your neighbor's kid's lemonade stand.
OK, that's not what they say, but something like that actually is happening in Dunedin, Florida.
A neighbor has been trying for two years to convince police or local officials to shut down T.J. Guerrero's small business.
Doug Wilkey contends that the Palm Harbor Middle School student's year-round operation is an "illegal business" that causes excessive traffic, noise, trash, illegal parking and other problems that reduce his property values.
"Please help me regain my quiet home and neighborhood," Wilkey, 61, wrote.
"We're not in the business of trying to regulate kids like that; nor do we want to do any code enforcement like that," said Dunedin planning and development director Greg Rice. "We are not out there trying to put lemonade stands out of business."
It's unclear how many hours government agencies have dedicated to the rancor.
According to Dunedin records, Wilkey contacted city commissioners in May 2013 and followed up in October, then again in March and June this year.
T.J. lives four doors down from Wilkey but places his stand on the shaded sidewalk in front of Rodney Shrode's corner lot home next door to Wilkey's.
Wilkey wrote that T.J's friends made noise as they lingered near the stand with their skateboards. The boys used profanity, threw rocks and debris that Wilkey had to pick up before mowing, and set off fireworks that scared his dog, he said. Once, a child accidentally ran his bicycle into the back of Wilkey's parked truck, damaging it.
Wilkey also said T.J.'s customers park in front of his home, an assertion that T.J. and Shrode deny.
T.J. said his longest line ever was five people. At least two neighbors said customers are allowed to park in their driveways.
"The city could possibly face repercussion in the event someone became ill from spoiled/contaminated food or drink sales," Wilkey wrote in one email.
"If this were a once a year event by a couple kids to earn a little money for a holiday or something, I would not have a problem with it," he said in another. "I am very worried about the value of my home, which is why I built in a residential area, not a business area."
An increasingly frustrated Wilkey, who declined to speak with the Tampa Bay Times, wrote this summer that the stand was back "AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!"
A Pinellas County sheriff's community police officer has been out at least twice in an attempt to defuse the conflict.
Guerrero, 12, said this morning he was "very surprised" when he heard that Wilkey objected to his business. He pointed out that all of the other neighbors support him, so he thinks Wilkey should too.
"It makes me upset, the fact that he's kind of lying," T.J. said, disputing Wilkey's allegations about the stand causing a disturbance.
He even offered Wilkey some free lemonade, but said the man wouldn't answer the door.
T.J. only has to deal with this for a few more years though. He'll be retiring from the lemonade stand when he turns 14, the minimum age for a position bagging groceries at Publix.
With the money, T.J. helps out his mom by buying dinner and paying for his cell phone.
Police say the lemonade/cookie stand is completely legal. Fox and Friends reached out to Wilkey, but received no response.


From the packaging to the products, I was totally smitten with everything from the Shu Uemura x Maison Kitsune 2015 Holiday Collection.
I appreciate when brands add that extra attention to detail to their packaging. How cute are the prints along the inside of the exterior packaging?!
Wish I could have a fox for a pet. Alas, I'll have to settle with having their adorable images printed on my nail polish bottle.
Indigo Glitz is a blackened, indigo-blue with a subtle hint of purple duochrome, and loaded with blue and green shimmer. The Formula is great, applied without any issues, and is opaque after two coats. However, the finish is where I come to a crossroads; it's really odd because after a few hours of wear, even with a top coat, Indigo Glitz's finish goes dull and turns me off. Yet, there are moments when the radiant shine returns, and all is forgiven. Indigo Glitz is just playing with my emotions.


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FELIX HELL
FELIX HELL PLAYS THE RIEGER-KLOSS ORGAN
Johann Sebastian Bach, Leon Boellmann, Dieterich Buxtehude, Marcel Dupré, Gigout, Max Reger, Charles-Marie Widor
FELIX HELL, organ
Inaugural Recording
Felix Hell / Rieger-Kloss
"German organist Felix Hell is a top-flight organist. His background is as impressive as his playing. He has studied at the University of Church Music in Heidelberg, the Juilliard School, The Curtis Institute, not to mention attending master classes and additional coaching by the likes of Wolfgang Rübsam, Marie-Claire Alain and Dame Gillian Weir, among others. This recording, in addition to showing off Hell's talents, showcases the new (2005) Rieger-Kloss organ… The Independent Presbyterian Church in Savannah, Georgia, chose an old-fashioned, but brand-new, pipe organ. And it sounds superb… Hell has a well chosen, varied program from Buxtehude and J.S. Bach to Widor and Reger to display this instrument… Hell is a musically skillful and mature musician, who began as a young prodigy. Couple him with a real pipe organ that has spectacular sound and you have a truly knock-out disc."
[ * * * * * ] Zan Furtwangler, Audiophile Audition [April 2013]
"[Felix Hell] is a performer of taste and discipline, with a powerhouse technique. "
Pasa Tempos [October 2007]
"The performances are good assured and technically fine...the instrument is bright and potent enough for any literature... [Felix Hell] clearly bears watching. An impressive presentation."
American Record Guide [September/October 2006]
"...his undoubted talent and old-school American training have left him with a virtuosic technique capable of tackling all the major romantic and 20th century repertoire"
MusicWeb International [July 2006]
Felix Hell was born in 1985, in Frankenthal/Pfalz, Germany. He took his first piano lesson at the age of seven, after having heard the C-Major Prelude, WTK-I, of J.S.Bach. He played it from memory after a few days listening to it and observing the piano player. Only eight months later, September 1993, he took his first organ lesson. Already in spring 1994, just 7 months after his first organ lesson, he participated in the Federal German competition for young musicians "Jugend musiziert", and received two First Prizes in organ playing. On Easter 1994, still eight years old, he was on duty in his first service as a liturgical organist, playing the organ at a Roman Catholic High Mass. The following years Felix Hell continued to take First Prizes in the German competition "Jugend musiziert": 1996 two First Prizes in piano playing, 1997 two First Prizes in organ playing and in 1999 again two First Prizes in piano playing. His organ studies Felix pursued, after initial studies with Eckard Mayer, at the Evangelical University of Church Music in Heidelberg/Germany with Johannes Michel (organ literature) and Prof. Christiane Michel (Improvisation). Additional coaching in this period of his education Felix Hell received in courses with Professors Martin Lücker, Frankfurt; Pieter van Dijk, Amsterdam; Oleg Yantchenko (+); Moscow, Wolfgang Rübsam, Chicago; Leo Krämer, Speyer; Franz Lehrndorfer, Munich; Robert Griffith, Delaware/Ohio; from the very beginning, Felix Hell's piano teacher has been Prof. Siegbert Panzer, German State Academy of Music, Mannheim.
In September 1999 Felix Hell enrolled at the Juilliard School, New York, where he had been awarded a merit-based full tuition scholarship, studying organ with Matthew Lewis and piano with Fank Levy. Since September 2001 Felix has been studying, again under full tuition scholarship, at The Curtis Institute of Music in Philadelphia under the tutelage of Dr. John Weaver and Alan Morrison, with additional coaching by Prof. Martin Jean (Yale University), Prof. Sutherland (Peabody Conservatory) and a master class with Marie-Claire Alain, Paris.
In May 2004 Felix Hell graduated with the Bachelor of Music, entering the history of the Curtis Institute of Music as the youngest Organ Major ever to graduate from this world-famous conservatory. Since September 2004 Felix Hell is enrolled in both the Master of Music and the Artist Diploma programs at the Peabody Institute of the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, USA, studying under the guidance of Donald Sutherland, attending additional courses held by Joan Lippincott, Princeton, and Gillian Weir, London. From the very beginning Felix Hell maintained a very busy recital schedule. His first solo appearance dates back to march 1994, and his first solo concert abroad the soon to be nine-year old Felix gave in August 1994 in the Great Hall of the Saratov Conservatory, Russia. Meanwhile Felix Hell has performed about 400 recitals in Germany and abroad: Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Korea, Spain, France, Italy, Russia, Latvia, Iceland, Norway, Jamaica, and the USA, where he had given more than 250 concerts in 40 states.
He has been privileged to perform in such prestigious places like: Passau Cathedral (Hoher Dom zu Passau), Germany; Ulm Cathedral (Ulmer Muenster), Germany; Cathedral of Hildesheim (Hoher Dom zu Hildesheim), Germany; Cathedral of St. Mauritius and St. Katharina, Magdeburg, Germany; Cathedral of St. Peter, Worms, Germany; University of Bochum, Auditorium Maximum, Germany; Cathedral of St. John the Divine, New York; National Cathedral of SS. Peter and Paul, Washington D.C.; Basilica of the National Shrine of the Immaculate Conception, Washington D.C.; First Congregational Church, Los Angeles; Broadway Baptist Church, Ft. Worth, Texas; Spivey Hall, Morrow (Atlanta), Georgia Spreckels Organ at Balboa Park, San Diego; Lincoln Center of the Performing Arts (Alice Tully Hall), New York; Boston Symphony Hall, Boston, Massachusetts; Methuen Memorial Music Hall, Methuen, Massachusetts; City Hall, Merrill Auditorium, Portland, Maine; Irvine Auditorium, University of Pennsylvania; Wanamaker Organ, Philadelphia; Tschaikovskiy Concert Hall, St. Petersburg; Great Philharmonic Hall, St. Petersburg, Russia; Dome Cathedral, Riga, Latvia; Melbourne Town Hall, Australia; Sydney Opera House, Australia; Sydney Townhall, Australia; Adelaide Town Hall, Australia; Nidaros Cathedral, Trondheim; Bergen Cathedral, Norway Orchestra performances comprise concerts with the Charleston Symphony Orchestra, USA, the National Academy Orchestra of Canada under Boris Brott, and the NEC Philharmony, Boston, USA, under Jens Georg Bachmann.
Felix Hell is member of the American Guild of Organists, the German Gesellschaft der Orgelfreunde, and the Organ Music Society of Sydney He holds the position as Organ Artist Associate at St. Peter's Lutheran Church in Manhattan, New York City. Only recently he was appointed Distinguished Organist-in-Residence at the Lutheran Theological Seminary at Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. Felix Hell has recorded six CDs, critically acclaimed by the public as well as by experts. His music has been broadcast several times, including a 90 minute solo show, by PIPEDREAMS of Minnesota Public Radio (host: Michael Barone), as well as by radio stations of Germany, The Netherlands, Australia, and by the BBC in Great Britain. He was featured on TV at ABC and NBC, and the German TV stations ARD, ZDF, SWR, RTL, DW, SAT1, and 3SAT.
RECORDED IN 24-BIT 88.2kHz HIGH RESOLUTION DIGITAL STEREO
Prelude, Fugue and Ciaconne in C major, BuxWV 137
Prelude and Fugue in G major, BWV 541
Wachet auf ruft uns die Stimme. BWV 645
Air on the G string
Variations sur un Noel
Toccata B minor
BOELLMANN
Suite Gothique, Op.25
Symphony No.5 (I. Allegro and II. Allegro cantabile)
Variations and Fugue on "America"
POETIC VISIONS
Romantic Organ Music by German Composers FELIX HELL
HEROIC PROPORTIONS
Selected Works for Organ FELIX HELL


Students love to be recognized on their birthdays, and these soft silicone bracelets are a great way to do just that. Each one is embossed with a birthday message to let everyone know it's the wearer's special day.
Celebrate your birthday with these birthday crowns.
Wish your students Happy Birthday with these colorful silicone bracelets featuring a message from you.
Create a pictograph by labeling the cards with student names and birthdays and placing them next to the appropriate months. Give students their cards to take home on their birthdays. At the end of each month, turn the month card over to reveal a message. Refill birthday cards (#164231) sold separately.
This colorful pocket chart is a great way to keep students engaged in math-even on their birthdays! Fill in the cards with students names and birthdays, then stack them in the pocket chart to build a candle for each month. Top off the stack with a flame card, and you're ready to discuss the different aspects of the colorful birthday graph. A write-on/wipe off header card is included to highlight a student on his or her special day.
There's nothing like the smell of birthday cake to make students feel important on their special day.
Wish students a happy birthday with a pencil that writes in a rainbow of colors.
The appealing spotted animals on these colorful cards wear a collar that doubles as a birthday bracelet. The back of the card shares fun facts about the animal.
There's plenty of room in these jumbo cards for every student to write a birthday message to a celebrating classmate. Recipients will love reading the notes and taking the card home to share with friends and family.
It's a party in a pencil! What better way to wish students Happy Birthday?
Say Happy Birthday with these festive fiesta pencils.
These golden and bejeweled paper crowns are fit for a king or a queen. Use to crown the birthday child or crown the student of the week. Children can also wear crowns when doing poetry readings or putting on parent presentations. Dozens of royal uses!
Students will enjoy the attention generated by these colorful acid-free birthday badges. Complements the rest of the Painted Palette line.
Your students will be proud to wear these adorable star sticker badges on their birthdays.
Printed with a splash of bright colors, these crowns leave plenty of room for students to add their own color with crayons or markers, as well as their name and age. Students will feel special wearing them on their big day.
Here's a colorful, cheerful display of classroom birthdays. Write students names and birthdays on the appropriate cupcake to keep track of everyone's birthday.
Students will feel extra special on their birthdays wearing these bright crowns. Pair them with our other pinwheel-themed birthday items.
Wish students a Happy Birthday with these brightly colored pencils sporting a message just from you.
These bright and shiny pencils will bring a smile to students faces on their birthdays.
Large enough for every student to write a message, these cards fold up into a big hug sure to make the birthday child feel loved. They're bound to become a favorite keepsake!
What a fun way to honor birthdays in English and Spanish!
Wish students Feliz Cumpleaños with these colorful fiesta pencils.
This wearable crown lets everyone know, in Spanish, that it's the wearer's birthday!
Celebrate birthdays with a playful puppy poster that announces the special occasion with fun text and illustrations. Just write students' names on the line with a dry erase marker. English on one side and Spanish on the other.
Label the pencil-tux balloons with students' names and birthdays, slide in the pencils, and display them in the birthday-themed box until the special day. Includes a message from the teacher.
Delight students with customizable birthday crowns that they can color and fill in with their age. Little ones will wear them with pride on their birthdays!
Give students a special place to sit on their birthdays. Made of 100% nylon with non-skid rubber backing, this festive rug meets Class One fire and indoor air quality ratings and includes Scotchguard protection and a useful life wear guarantee.
These shiny foil pencils are sure to make students smile on their birthday. Bag of 1 dozen pencils.
Printed with a splash of bright colors to get students started, these mats are filled with engaging activities and lots of shapes to color for extra birthday fun.
Students will be delighted to receive these two-in-one awards on their birthdays. One side features a certificate that can be filled out with the student's name, teacher's name, and date; the other features a perforated bookmark that students can tear off and use all year long.
Let students know you care on their birthdays with these pencils featuring balloons, fireworks, and a message just from you.
Your students will be proud to wear these adorable smiling ribbon sticker badges on their birthdays.
Make birthday celebrations extra special with this stylish award! It's easy to personalize and will become a memento that students and their parents will treasure. Coordinates with our Black & White Collection products.
Make students feel special on their birthdays with these fun and colorful slap bracelets featuring the coolest cat in school.
Students will feel special as they wear these fun birthday capes. The cape can also be taped to the birthday child's chair. Send it home when the school day is over.
Make students feel special with a Happy Birthday certificate featuring a smiling Emoji face for their special day.


text:
National TV Reviews & News
Stories and opinions on TV's passing parade of shows and stars
Fall TV Preview '06
TV Bulletin Board
IFC's The Spoils of Babylon: a grandiose, gut-busting sendup
Forbidden love: Kristen Wiig, Tobey Maguire in The Spoils of Babylon. IFC photo
Premiering: Thursday, Jan. 9th at 9 p.m. (central) with back-to-back episodes on Independent Film Channel
Starring: Kristen Wiig, Tobey Maguire, Will Ferrell, Tim Robbins, Haley Joel Osment, Isabella Acres, Phillip Wampler, Jessica Alba
Produced by: Will Ferrell, Adam McKay, Matt Piedmont, Andrew Steele, Nate Young
@unclebarkycom on Twitter
Hilariously half-baked -- my compliments to the chefs -- here comes The Spoils of Babylon to another smallish cable network with big ambitions to break through.
Independent Film Channel (IFC) currently is best known as the home of Portlandia, which returns on Feb. 27th with the promise of "Epic Guest Stars." Until then, feast on this six-part creation of fictional trash novelist Eric Jonrosh (Will Ferrell), whose dream of seeing one of his books on the small screen is finally realized.
IFC has made the first two half-hours available for review. And they're the best genre sendup since ABC ventured forth with six episodes of Police Squad! way back in 1982.
Outfitted with a laugh-out-loud beard, Ferrell's Jonrosh begins and ends each episode with pompous declarations from his solitary restaurant table, where goblets of wine are the main course. In the 1970s, he envisioned Spoils of Babylon as a 22-hour TV miniseries but couldn't get a network to bite. So he financed it himself, whittled it down to three hours and assembled a cast of master thespians ranging from ex-wife Lauoreighiya Samcake to Sir Richard Driftwood. The ensemble also includes Dirk Snowfield, Joseph Soil, Gumdrop Howard and Dixie Melonworth as Dixie Melonworth.
Watching these opening title credits roll is one of the instant pleasures of Spoils of Babylon, where obviously miniature autos and palatial estates are used to keep Jonrosh's budget in line. A suitably overblown theme song is performed by Steve Lawrence, with the first two episodes mostly spotlighting Kristen Wiig, Tobey Maguire and Tim Robbins.
Wiig's Samcake plays the very willful Cynthia Morehouse. She's the daughter of 1930s West Texas wildcattter Jonas Morehouse (Driftwood/Robbins), who hits a last-second gusher to stave off abject poverty. Before this happens, Jonas takes in an aimlessly wandering Devon Morehouse (Snowfield/Maguire). (The younger Cynthia and Devon are played by Isabella Acres and Philip Wampler in these formative scenes after an adult Devon is shot and then staggers away to record his life story on two giant tape reels.)
The Morehouse's rags to riches tale, spiced by Cynthia's growing attraction to her adopted brother, is played to ridiculously perfect extremes. Robbins is a riot in Episode 1 while Wiig has a brilliant breakfast table confrontation with a beautiful British mannequin in Episode 2. Providing more details as to how that comes about would spoil too much of the joke.
Devon has been to war and back by the end of Episode 2. And the pot has only begun to boil. "I'll be here waiting for you," Jonrosh promises. "Probably in the same booth with the same moribund look on my face. How could it be otherwise?"
How could Spoils of Babylon be any better? So far It probably couldn't. These first two episodes are gut-busting, non-stop fun. And they're not only "Presented In Color" but "Filmed In Breath Take O Scope." Clearly an embarrassment of riches.
Email comments or questions to: unclebarky@verizon.net
Network News & Reviews >


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If I DNAse treated my FFPE sample will the assay function correctly?
DNAse treatment can reduce the quality of the RNA in the sample. When using FFPE samples, total nucleic acid is the recommended assay starting material.
What extraction methods are supported for my input material prior to library preparation with the Archer FusionPlex and VariantPlex assays?
Can Tris-EDTA buffer be used instead of 10mM Tris-HCl pH 8.0 buffer to elute and store my samples?