text:
Q: Sending HTML formatting text using PHPMailer I want to send email with HTML text using PHPMailer.
 <!DOCTYPE html>

<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html;charset=utf-8" />
<title>Robots.txt</title>

<?php
require "PHPMailer/src/PHPMailer.php";
require "PHPMailer/src/OAuth.php";
require "PHPMailer/src/SMTP.php";
require "PHPMailer/src/POP3.php";
require "PHPMailer/src/Exception.php";
require 'PHPMailer/src/PHPMailerAutoload.php';

use PHPMailer\PHPMailer\PHPMailer;
use PHPMailer\PHPMailer\Exception;

$current_list = array("lorelle","kadirgamar","arrow","orion","woolimlanka","nippon","luna-tower","thotalagala","altair","arrowlibrary","ashraf","ashrafnew","invoke","lavana","leia","lorelle","lioc","liocdev","lorellenew","openmanthri","opentapes","rates","rsq","signature","site","visualretale","srhr","smitratest","smitra","lioccontent","lioccopy","liocold","global","echelon","arrowlive");

$url = 'http://www.test.oddly.co/robots.txt';
$curl = curl_init($url);
curl_setopt($curl, CURLOPT_RETURNTRANSFER, true);
curl_setopt($curl, CURLOPT_POST, 1);
$get_list = curl_exec($curl);
curl_close($curl);
echo $get_list.'

';
$updated_list = explode('Disallow: /',$get_list);
unset($updated_list[0]);
$updated_list = array_values($updated_list);
array_walk($updated_list,'trim_array_element');
$m = "";
foreach ($current_list as  $value) {
    if(in_array($value, $updated_list))
    {
        $var = true;
        //$value." is okay";
        //echo '
';
    }
    else
    {
        $var = false;
        //echo $value." Not There";
        //echo '
';
        break;
    }
}
define('GUSER', 'tech@oddly.co'); // GMail username
define('GPWD', 'Oddly@2016');
define('SMTPUSER', 'tech@oddly.co'); // sec. smtp username
define('SMTPPWD', 'Oddly@2016'); // sec. password
define('SMTPSERVER', 'smtp.gmail.com'); // sec. smtp server

if($var==true)
{
    $headers = 'Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1' . '\r\n';
    $message = '';
    $message .= '
';
    $message .= '<?php
                    foreach ($current_list as  $value) {
                        echo "". $value. " &#x2714 "."";
                        echo "
";
                    }
                ?>';
    $message .= '
';
    $message .= '';
    $subj = 'Robot.txt is OKAY!';
    $to2 = 'falak@oddly.co';
    $from = 'tech@oddly.co';
    $name = 'ODDLY TECH';

}
else
{
    $msg = $value.' is not in the list. Check that!';
    $subj = 'Robot.txt is not OKAY!';
    $to2 = 'falak@oddly.co';
    $from = 'tech@oddly.co';
    $name = 'ODDLY TECH';

}

//send mail

if (smtpmailer($to2, $from, $name, $subj, $message,$headers)
        ) {
        echo 'Message send via Gmail';
    } else {
        if (!smtpmailer($to2, $from, $name, $subj, $msg)) {
            if (!empty($error)) echo $error;
        } else {
            echo 'Yep, the message is send (after doing some hard work)';
        }
    }

// This function is for Trim the array!

function trim_array_element(&$list)
{
    $list = preg_replace('/\// ', ' ', $list);
    $list = ereg_replace('[[:space:]])+', ' ',  trim($list));
}

//send email function

function smtpmailer($to, $from, $from_name, $subject, $body, $is_gmail = true) {
    global $error;
    $mail = new PHPMailer();
    $mail->IsSMTP();
    $mail->SMTPAuth = true;
    if ($is_gmail) {
        $mail->SMTPSecure = 'ssl';
        $mail->Host = 'ssl://smtp.gmail.com';
        $mail->Port = 465;
        $mail->Username = GUSER;
        $mail->Password = GPWD;
    }
    else {
        $mail->Host = SMTPSERVER;
        $mail->Username = SMTPUSER;
        $mail->Password = SMTPPWD;
    }
    $mail->SetFrom($from, $from_name);
    $mail->Subject = $subject;
    $mail->Body = $body;
    $mail->AddAddress($to);
    if(!$mail->Send()) {
        $error = 'Mail error: '.$mail->ErrorInfo;
        return false;
    } else {
        $error = 'Message sent!';
        return true;
    }
}
?>

I tried this code. But it's showing an error. I want to send that HTML text by email. But it is not getting really HTML text. I typed in $message = something.  It is printing that thing and not HTML text. It should send the HTML text file but it's not sending.

A: I believe you're mistaking with $headers parameter as your function has a different signature
if (smtpmailer($to2, $from, $name, $subj, $message,$headers)

function smtpmailer($to, $from, $from_name, $subject, $body, $is_gmail = true) {

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Yes. A visa is required to travel to Eritrea, and you need to have this document in place before arriving in the country. If you do not have a visa, you will be denied entrance into Eritrea and sent out of the country on the next possible flight at your own expense. In addition to a visa, travelers to Eritrea also need to have a valid passport, and it is advisable to have at least six months of validity left on the passport following the departure date from Eritrea. Eritrean officials are very strict about visa compliance, so be sure that you do not overstay the validity of your visa or attempt to travel on the wrong visa class, as this could result in fines and imprisonment.
Can I Obtain My Visa for Eritrea on Arrival?
Eritrea does not offer on arrival visas. In other words, you cannot expect to obtain your visa for your trip to Eritrea and the airport or any other port of entry. Visas are issued by the Embassy of Eritrea in Washington, DC. In order to get a visa for Eritrea, all government required forms must be completed to the government of Eritrea's specifications and accompanied by supporting materials. An error on any of the forms or incorrect accompanying documents can result in your visa not being issued, so it is best to have an expert handle this process for you.
What Types of Materials Support My Eritrea Visa Application?
Confused by the document requirements for travel to Eritrea? Let the Eritrea visa experts help! Call for expert advice.
How Do I Obtain My Visa for Eritrea?
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What Else Do I Need to Do Before Traveling to Eritrea?
Make sure your US passport is still valid and will be for 6 months after the date you plan to exit Eritrea. It is also advisable to be sure there are at least two blank visa pages in your passport for entry and exit stamps to avoid potential questions about your passport from immigration officials. Does your passport not meet these requirements? Passport Health Passports and Visas can get you a new passport in as few as 1-3 business days.
Be sure to prepare your health! Many diseases that are unknown in or have been eradicated from the United States still present a health threat in Eritrea. Schedule an appointment at the Passport Health travel clinic nearest to you to get all of the vaccines, medications, and travel supplies you need for a healthy trip.


So. Wow. Stellaris 1.9. Dev Diary #92. Reddit rage arguments.
To say the least, it's been an interesting week, with some interesting turn of events. Way back in March, Wiz made mention of impending changes to the FTL systems. Somehow it was hinted that Warp was on the chopping block back then, so we really should have seen the writing on the wall - I think some of us did, really. I even went so far as to write a humorous post about my position regarding the changes here on Reddit. And, while the post was tongue-in-cheek, I was trying to address a real concern that I, and many others, have about our preferred play styles.
Except, with the up coming 1.9 upgrade I and others won't be able to. Sure, we'd love to look forward to the new features and whatever else (I'm personally stoked about the border system - I've been using a small mod that I did now for ages that does essentially the same thing) will be included. I mean, really, some of the stuff really does look cool.
But. But. But. For me, the game has been hobbled. I'm very familiar with Hyperlane only games. Uncomfortably familiar with them. I know people like them, but please understand that I do not, and I'm not being selfish or reactionary or immature and I'm not "just throwing up my hands," and I don't need to give it a try. I'll remind you, I was part of the Space Empires V crew, and I did not like them then, and I do not like them now, and I've had 12 years to stew this into a righteous hate on for them. Don't get me wrong - There were a lot of cool things about Space Empires V (my artwork for one), but Hyperlanes in my opinion were not one of them.
But. Maybe I could live with them - god knows I've done so with SEV since forever and a day. Not much of a choice there.
But. Reaction from the Stellaris community was surprising. Over the past four days, I've seen the community split into basically WWH (Warp, Wormholes & Hyperlanes) and HO (Hyperlane Only) camps. The former (which I technically fall into) want all three FTL methods to remain in game, but be refined - no one is saying they're perfect, or that one is really better than the others (Ok, warp is really cool, and Hyperlanes to me are limiting, but come on - I'm not asking you ditch your play style). Whereas the HO camp has been ... how shall I put this? Straight up rude* and condescending.
Seriously, guys. What the hell.
So. I've come to a decision - all development on my mods ceases as of now. They will not be updated for 1.9, and stand a very real chance of being taken down at it's release, because I'm not inclined to support a community and game that isn't interested in supporting their players, no matter how much in the minority they may be.
Alien Suns will continue, but in different venues.
*Edit: I chose to edit and walk back some of the language in this post, as I was speaking from a place of frustration when I wrote it. While my original meaning remains, the unnecessary inflammatory language has been removed. Poor choice of words on my part, and I shall endeavor to do better. My intention is not to pour gasoline on the fire, merely to clear my head so I can move forward with my own projects - and at times, that process can be messy.


Camiseta Real Madrid Tienda - 悠悠咖啡 - Loveless愛情社區 - Powered by Discuz!
A relative of Jermaine Hamilton, the man killed Tuesday evening in Beterverwagting, said that the 37-year-old was a threat to his community because of his violent and deranged behaviour.Jermaine Hamilton at a birthday gathering three years earlierAgnes Hamilton, the dead man's great aunt, said that she is hurt by her great nephew's departure,NFL Jerseys China, but his death via conflict comes as no surprise.According to her, Hamilton was constantly involved in disputes with people in and out of the neighbourhood, and was thus frequently in trouble with the law. She claimed that because of the man's behaviour,Air Max 90 Pas Cher Destockage, persons in the village had become fearful of him because he steadily attacked and threatened those around.Hamilton said that her nephew, a patient of psychiatric doctor, Bhiro Harry, took medication to deal with his unstable condition, but she believes that he used his situation to get over people by driving fear to get his way.Through her husband, Hamilton said she became acquainted with her great nephew. Almost three years ago, she said, she took him into her home after he was released from prison. For about two years, the 37-year-old man lived at her Lot 106 Beterverwagting Sideline Dam home, since she alone occupied the premises.That, she said,Wholesale NFL Jerseys, was until he threatened to kill her and she became fearful for her life and "put him out." He was then taken to Melanie Damishana, another East Coast Demerara village to live with relatives, the woman said.Hamilton remembered that her nephew returned to live with her after he and one of the relatives in Melanie Damishana had a conflict. That relative, she explained, was the now dead Jermaine Hamilton's uncle.Hamilton said that her nephew returned to her home but was again put out after he threatened to kill her daughter who lives oblique to her. Ever since, the woman said that she had been keeping her distance."He would come round and he would say Nanny I out here. I would answer and acknowledge his presence but I maintained my distance. He won't go home. He would be on the streets the whole time." Hamilton said that in the last couple of years, her nephew's attitude worsened. Having been released from jail, she said his attitude never changed despite the medication he was given.She said that the death of her nephew was the first thing that greeted her yesterday morning. The elderly woman said on Tuesday evening she wasn't feeling well and had retired to bed very early.Yesterday morning,NBA Jerseys From China, she said, she was awakened when a friend telephoned to tell her of Hamilton's death. "I am not surprised," she told Kaieteur News. "He finds himself in problem,Nike Air Max Winkels Belgie, always threatening people and promising to bore dem up and ting.""Only Monday he attacked the neighbour's daughter with a cutlass and they went to the station. Another time, a woman come to me and say how he try fuh attack her two granddaughters. Before that he buss a man belly; that's how he went to jail," Hamilton continued.The elderly woman said that she however understands that her nephew was beaten to death. She said she has no idea who did it, but she heard that he was beaten because he attacked someone.Residents in the area were tight lipped. Many of those questioned said they did not know the dead man while others said they saw him around but made no contact. Some said that Hamilton was regarded as a mad man so no one paid him any attention.Yesterday, blood stains were still visible at the place where Hamilton died. Strands of dreadlocks were also seen about the walkway where the man was said to have met his demise. It is alleged that around 17:00hours on Tuesday, Hamilton attacked an off-duty police officer who was returning from visiting a friend.Reports said that Hamilton while armed with a cutlass and a knife assaulted the rank, causing him minor injuries. Civilians reportedly went to the cop's aid and Hamilton was hurt in the process. A woman said she heard thudding noises and when she looked outside, Hamilton's motionless body was seen lying on the walkway.He was eventually taken to the Georgetown Public Hospital where he was pronounced dead.Authorities late last year had been expressing concern over the sporadic attack on citizens by persons of unsound mind. Towards the end of November last year, a 15-year-old student of the Brickdam Secondary School escaped with his life after a vicious attack by a mentally challenged man outside the Parliament Building.Minister of Human Services Jennifer Webster had expressed concern over the issue and said that the issue of mentally ill persons was one that required medical attention. Health Minister,Nike Air Max Sale Outlet Uk, Dr. Bheri Ramsarran had told this publication that the situation concerning these persons was unfortunate and there is no excuse for the attacks.He pointed out that the problem of mentally ill persons on streets requires a collaborative multi-agency effort, involving his Ministry, the Ministry of Human Services and Home Affairs and other Non-Governmental Organizations.
GMT+8, 2019-4-24 00:07, Processed in 0.039406 second(s), 5 queries.


The dazzling suites offer uninterrupted views of the Aegean sea through sunny floor-to-ceiling windows. The beautifully appointed bedroom has a combination of marble and wooden floor, a living area with a corner-sofa bed, all done in a sophisticated style. The irresistible wash-room has a full-length tub, separate shower, and two washbasins. The outdoors beckons intimate dining on an expansive balcony terrace. Located directly on the beach with a private serviced area, its comes as no surprise that this hotel has been awarded with the Trip Advisor Excellent Service, 6 years running.
• 'Symposium' restaurant for breakfast, lunch and dinner - buffet and waiter service • 'Asterias' à la carte beach side restaurant for lunch & dinner • 'Poseidon' pool side lunch & dinner restaurant with à la carte BBQ menu • 2 pool bars • Beach bar/pizzeria • Main bar • Soft animation programme • Regular theme evenings Note: Dress code applies for dinner, for all gentlemen above 12 years of age.


text:
Heeii, formerly known as Elkoog B.V., is a company based in Groningen, Netherlands that provides a recommendation service for web browsers by means of a plug-in.  Website visitors that use Heeii recommendations are able to get the most appropriate content links that result in reaching their online objectives.

Technology & Social Science
Heeii is combining human computer interaction research with software engineering techniques to understand the implicit, emergent behaviors of web surfers.  Based on an array of implicit behaviors, Heeii's technology discerns a user's intent and dynamically connects them to the content based on the collective wisdom of all visitors with similar interests.

Heeii has built its technology on many of the same social principles as have been popularized by books such as The Long Tail, The Wisdom of Crowds, and Emergence.

Passive Filtering
Implicit approaches, such as the one that Heeii implements, collects the community wisdom that emerges on the web by observing the user behaviors.

See here for a comparison of Active and Passive filtering.

Company history
The company was founded in 2006 by Edwin Kuipers, and is headquartered in Groningen, Netherlands. Elkoog was able to start by taking a round of angel funding from various close business relations and friends. The funding round came to approximately $750,000.

Early 2007 the concept had proven feasible. Because Heeii scales non-linearly, always has to be available, has to respond very rapidly, financing of a sufficient infrastructure had to be realized. Elkoog then took a round of angel funding, a venture capital fund called The Knowledge Conversion Fund, and the ir. G.J. Smid Fund Foundation. This second funding round came to approximately $1.6 million.

By the beginning of 2009 the company raised an additional $2.6 million for marketing in the Netherlands - the company's home base, and the rest of the world.

Also early 2009, Heeii received academic accreditation by becoming a member of the expertise center Target, which is building a sustainable economic cluster of intelligent sensor network information systems in the Northern part of the Netherlands, aimed at data management for very large amounts of data. Prominent scientific research groups and innovative businesses jointly develop and improve complex and scalable data systems. The starting point here is the Target paradigm: full integration of large-scale data processing, archiving and analysis. In these experimental surroundings, the Target model is developed into actual market applications, and participants in follow-up projects will develop further products and services.

Target is a collaboration between
National Astronomical Datacenter OmegaCEN
University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG)
Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy (ASTRON)
Artificial Intelligence at the RuG
Donald Smits Center for Information Technology
Task24
Oracle
IBM
Heeii
Target Holding

Target's secretary is the University of Groningen. The partners drew up an innovative program of 32 million Euros in total in which they will be investing a total sum of almost 16 million Euros.

See also

 Conversion optimization
 Recommendation system
 Collaborative filtering

References
 Heeii is StumbleUpon Plus Google Suggestions by Kristen Nicole, Mashable, May 15, 2007.
 Heeii - The Dutch Stumbleupon? (Dutch) by Jeroen Bakker, BlueAce, May 17, 2007.
 Heeii, aanraadsysteem voor makkelijk surfen (Dutch) by Denise Lappain, April 26, 2009.

External links
 Company website

Web services

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Table 2 Summary of BLV genotyping methods
From: Epidemiology and genetic diversity of bovine leukemia virus
Genotyping method
Amplified BLV region
Amplicon size (bp)
Phylogenetic approaches
Classification result
PCR-RFLP Partial env-gp51 region 444 BamHI, BglI, HaeIII, BclI, PvuII, DraI, HindIII, HpaII, StuI, TaqI 7 groups: A, B, C, D, E, F, G Fechner et al., 1997 [90]
Licursi et al., 2002 [91]
Asfaw et al., 2005 [95]
RFLP + sequencing Partial gp51 sequencing 400–444 BamHI, BclI, PvuII, GmbH NJ; MP; ML RFLP-based type: Australian type, Argentine type, Belgium type, Japanese type; Sequence-based type: Argentine cluster, European cluster, Japan and German isolate cluster; groups I–IV; or genotypes 1–8 Monti et al., 2005 [49]
Felmer et al., 2005 [93]
Camargos et al., 2007 [122]
PCR-sequencing Partial gp51 sequencing 346–444 NJ; ML; BI Japanese group, Argentine group, European group; or genotypes 1–8 Camargos et al., 2002 [121]
Matsumura et al., 2011 [98]
Rola-Luszczak et al., 2013 [99]
Polat et al., 2015 [74]
Ochirkhuu et al., 2016 [77]
Polat et al., 2016 [75, 76]
Sequencing of partial or full gp51 gene sequences 444–903 NJ; ML; BI Up to 10 BLV genotypes Moratorio et al., 2010 [126]
Balic et al., 2012 [97]
Lee et al., 2015 [100]
Sequencing of env (full gp51 and/or gp30 genes) up to 1548 NJ; ML; BI Consensus cluster, US Californian cluster, European cluster, Costa Rican cluster; or genotypes 1–10 Zhao et al., 2007 [109]
Rodriguez et al., 2009 [96]
Yang et al., 2016 [131]
Full BLV genome sequencing BLV complete genome 8714 ML genotypes −1, −2, −4, −6, −9, and −10 Polat et al., 2016 [75, 76]
BI Bayesian inference, BLV bovine leukemia virus, NJ neighbor-joining, ML maximum-likelihood, MP maximum-parsimony, RFLP restriction fragment length polymorphism

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Digest ›
NDI Afghanistan election update
Sept. 13, 2010, 2:05 p.m.
As part of it's ongoing coverage of the upcoming election in Afghanistan, The National Democratic Institute (NDI) has released an election update brief, which highlights observations form NDI's observation mission in the country. The brief contains information on the political parties registration and campaign material. You can view the previous reports here, here and here.
Most of Afghanistan's political parties were unable to register in time to get their names on the Sept. 18 election ballot as a result of requirements in a new election law passed in September 2009. Before the new law was passed, more than 100 parties had registered with the Ministry of Justice (M0J). But this year, only five political parties were able to register in time to be listed with their candidates.


Today is the last class of this year.
I really enjoy this place in Thornbury.
Frank organises fantastic models, and Henry makes awesome cake.
And, artists in this wonderful studio are all lovely and very talented.
It was a beautiful day in Melbourne.
I need more practice painting hands.


text:
Raul Labrador elected as GOP Chairman
By: Natasha Williams
Drew Angerer

WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 26: Subcommittee on Immigration and Border Security chairman Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID) listens to testimony during a House Judiciary Committee hearing concerning the oversight of the U.S. refugee admissions program, on Capitol Hill, October 26, 2017 in Washington, DC. The Trump administration is expected to set the fiscal year 2018 refugee ceiling at 45,000, down from the previous ceiling at 50,000. It would be the lowest refugee ceiling since Congress passed the Refugee Act of 1980. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

BOISE, Idaho — Former Representative Raul Labrador has been elected as the GOP Chairman at their summer meeting Saturday.
Labrador served in the Idaho House of Representatives from 2006 to 2010 before being elected to Congress. He gave up his congressional seat in 2018 to run for governor, but was defeated in the GOP gubernatorial primary by Governor Brad Little.
Former Idaho Superintendent of Public Instruction, Tom Luna, was also up for consideration.
Former chairman Jonathan Parker resigned in February, in order to spend more time with his children. Parker was arrested earlier this year on a stalking charge.


text:
Janet Kuypers' "Meant to do Big Things" 6/3/17 poetry feature @ Austin's the Baha'i Center
January 17, 2018 by Janet Kuypers
Enjoy writing links and video links from a June 3rd 2017 (6/3/17, or 20170603) poetry performance (with Janet's video recorded electric bass sounds with a bow, and her live playing an acoustic guitar with a bow) of Janet Kuypers' Austin poetry feature through June is a Woman! at Austin's the Bahá'í Center about being a woman, and about what women go through.
Before leaving her Chicago home to live in Austin Texas, someone told her (which she left as a note on her desk, and was the impetus for her writing her twitter-length poem "you were meant"), "you were meant to do big things, which you are." This note, when used s a reference to women, was the perfect title for her woman-themed show "Meant to do Big Things".
Janet Kuypers' poem "My brain was (2017 Streamline)" after her Austin 6/3/17 feature (Lumix).
20170530bass4show20170603
Janet Kuypers' poem "My brain was (2017 Streamline)" after her Austin 6/3/17 feature (Sony).
Janet Kuypers' poetry feature "Meant to do Big Things" 6/3/17 @ Austin's Baha'i Center (Sony).
Janet Kuypers' poetry feature "Meant to do Big Things" 6/3/17 @ Austin's Baha'i Center (Lumix).
Before the show started she also released copies to people there of a Scars Publications cc&d bonus release chapbook of the writings she was performing in her show (in the order they were performed), as well as a bonus poem she performed after her show titled "My brain was (2017 Streamline)" in the open mic. All of the pieces from this evening's reading were also released electronically in an online "Meant to do Big Things" chapbook, which you can download as a PDF file for free any time.
Read the poems from the feature "Meant to do Big Things":
"you were meant",
"Athena",
"a man calls a woman",
"Diane Talking About her Trip to Mexico City",
and "Echo in my Mind"
Janet Kuypers' "Time to Start the…
Janet Kuypers' "Our Cultural…
Janet Kuypers' "Drop the Bomb"…
Janet Kuypers' "Journey" poetry…
the Janet Kuypers show "Bases Loaded" in Chicago (at…
"Visionaries Behind the Stars," Janet Kuypers'…
This Poetry is Money!, Janet Kuypers' Periodic Table…
Janet Kuypers' 1st interview on Austin Radio…
Janet Kuypers' "2017 Austin Rhythm…
the "India Stories" Janet Kuypers poetry…
"Love ", Janet Kuypers'…
Janet Kuypers' poetry feature/show 6/19/15 in…
Janet Kuypers' poetry feature/show…
Janet Kuypers' poetry feature/show "Like a Lamb to…
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Save 13% when you buy the FHA Single Family Housing Policy Handbook and Harrison's Illustrated Guide together!
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Save 20% on orders of 5 or more of the same title.
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Henry S. Harrison, MAI, SRPA, DREI is the most respected Real Estate Appraisal author and educator in America. Henry has been active in the field for over forty years. With more than thirty books and seminars available for appraisers at all levels, he is the best-known provider of independent appraisal education in the country. "H2" is also the publisher of the free online appraisal trade magazine Real Estate Valuation Online which contains his extremely popular "Ask Henry Harrison" blog.


text:
Health Revival
Dr. Thomas J. Lewis
Coronavirus: We live in a Political World, not a Scientific World
Professor John Ioannidis - Stanford
Here is a view from a very high level Stanford professor who is a champion of evidence-based science and medicine. I may not agree with everything he has to say but his point of view is important to read within the context of the narrative on the coronavirus and COVID-19
By JOHN P.A. IOANNIDIS
The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.
At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.
Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?
Vaccines or affordable treatments take many months (or even years) to develop and test properly. Given such timelines, the consequences of long-term lockdowns are entirely unknown.
The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don't know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It's like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes. In fact, such "mild" coronaviruses infect tens of millions of people every year, and account for 3% to 11% of those hospitalized in the U.S. with lower respiratory infections each winter.


OH! Chart 190319 | TXT Wins the Crown!
OH! Chart gets some fresh new faces this week with TXT joining the rankings!
The chart is divided into three different categories: Gaon Digital Score (60%), Hanteo Physical Sales (15%), and OH User Voting (25%). For each weekly cycle of the chart, OH users can vote for more than one nominee. However, they cannot vote for the same nominee more than once. Chart Masters will then gather the data and crunch the numbers. Once an artist achieves three wins with one song (a triple crown!), this song will be excluded from future charts.
N.Flying keeps winning over k-nets with their song Rooftop scoring 53,853,397 points. ITZY stays consistent with their song Dalla Dalla coming in second place with 42,186,027 digital points. Third place this week is a new entry to OH! Chart with Kassy's The Day Was Beautiful scoring 41,964,246.
BTS' little brother group TXT doesn't let their Bighit family down, coming in first for physicals this week with 75,763 copies of their debut album The Dream Chapter: Star. Second place goes to GOT7's duo subunit JUS2, selling 57,482 copies of their mini album FOCUS. Third place, selling 23,207 copies of his debut album My Moment is little cloud Ha Sungwoon.
TXT comes in first place for votes this week either solidifying their fandom or maybe getting some help from their big brothers, either way the tally was 38 votes. Sunmi represented the gays and showed out with 31 votes, landing her in second place. And finally, in a first for OH! Chart this year, MAMAMOO's Hwasa and ITZY tied for third place with 20 votes each.
Overall, TXT comes out on top with 14.28 thanks to their massive physical points and voting public. Second place goes to ITZY with 10.22 in part to k-nets loving their song. And finally N.Flying rounds out the top three continuing their digital success with 10.18.
TXT or Tomorrow X Together is Bighit's latest new boy group! These fresh faces have jumped on the scene following in some big footsteps. Their new song Crown is a bright an energetic introduction to the group's sound. Filled with electronic elements and synth brass sounds, they blend vocals, rap and dancing to showcase their talents. Will they hit it big with the public and gain a huge fandom or are you just jamming out? Let us know your thoughts below!


text:
From the "This Should be Obvious" File: Males aren't Bulletproof
Steven L. Taylor · Thursday, December 20, 2012 · 86 comments
Horrendous crimes, such as the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary, elicit emotional responses, to be sure. They, unfortunately, also elicit an array of silly, if not incredibly ridiculous ones.
To wit, Charlotte Allen writing at NRO:
Like most people, I've been thinking and thinking about the Sandy Hook massacre. I've even pored over a map of the school and its killing sites — and studied a timeline of the incident, which appears to have unfolded over about 20 minutes. I have three observations:
There was not a single adult male on the school premises when the shooting occurred. In this school of 450 students, a sizeable number of whom were undoubtedly 11- and 12-year-old boys (it was a K-6 school), all the personnel — the teachers, the principal, the assistant principal, the school psychologist, the "reading specialist" — were female. There didn't even seem to be a male janitor to heave his bucket at Adam Lanza's knees.
Male aggression can be a good thing, as in protecting the weak — but it has been forced out of the culture of elementary schools and the education schools that train their personnel. Think of what Sandy Hook might have been like if a couple of male teachers who had played high-school football, or even some of the huskier 12-year-old boys, had converged on Lanza.
It is incredibly easy to imagine what Sandy Hook would have looked like if there had been more male teachers, even ex-linebackers: instead of six dead female faculty members, there would have been some number of male and female teachers dead.
And, please: "There didn't even seem to be a male janitor to heave his bucket at Adam Lanza's knees." More likely: there wasn't even a male janitor to be shot whilst Lanza came down the hall with a semiautomatic assault rifle in his hands. Assault rifles trump buckets.
I sometimes think that the biggest crime committed by action movies when it comes to mass shootings is not that they glorify violence, but because they make it look so darn easy to take out the bad guy.
I find this sort of Monday morning quarterbacking about a mass shooting to be utterly reprehensible (although not as bad a John Derbyshire after the VaTech slayings who questioned why those being shot at didn't "count the shots and jump" the shooter).
But only if there had been a bucket-wielding ex-football player mopping up…
FILED UNDER: Quick Takes, US Politics
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter
gVOR08 says:
Thursday, 20 December 2012 at 09:35
http://www.thefrisky.com/2012-12-20/an-open-letter-to-charlotte-allen-who-thinks-men-would-have-stopped-the-newtown-massacre/
FACT: Sandy Hook is a K-4 school, not K-6, so no 12-year-old boys, husky or otherwise, around to charge at 20-year-old men brandishing firearms. And let's be clear: that you're suggesting 12-year-old children would, could or should "converge" on anyone firing at them with a gun is insane.
FACT: There are at least two men on staff at Sandy Hook Elementary — a 4th grade teacher and a janitor, though no word on whether he carries a magical bullet-deflecting bucket.
Steven L. Taylor says:
@gVOR08: Facts!? Ha!
God, what an ass!
And, while it's true that a number of mass shootings have been stopped by people charging the gunman, in all those cases people only rushed the gunman when they were either attempting to reload or clear a jam. Few people are dumb enough to run into fire unarmed (and if you do the research, most people aren't willing to return fire until there is a pause in shooting).
Al of which seems like a good argument for reduced capacity magazines….
It's interesting to see what has happened to the reviews of her book on Amazon after the above essay was published…
http://www.amazon.com/Human-Christ-Charlotte-Allen/product-reviews/0745942350/ref=cm_cr_dp_see_all_btm?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=1&sortBy=bySubmissionDateDescending
Rafer Janders says:
If it's a legitimate shooting attack, the male body has a way to, you know, shut that whole thing down in a way that a female body doesn't…..
I think we've failed as a society if we can do no better than "Yo! Bum rush the gunman!" But then again that's not "the best" we can do, is it?
It's actually the least we can do.
I have to say, though, that I find it funny these people say these things, "We can't do anything about it," and then offer this kind of thing as advice? I get the sense that many of these people are patting themselves on the back for being philosophically consistent.
And yet they don't seem to notice these things expose glaring holes in their philosophy.
I'd also like us to encourage male (and they must be male, because girls throw funny) janitors to bucket throw at shooters, rather than following their instincts to hide; if we drilled it into janitors that the correct thing to do is for them to instantly throw a bucket at the knees of the guy with the gun, these sorts of mass shootings would be less deadly, because even a guy with a very powerful weapon can be brought down by a bucket to the knees, followed by several husky 12-year olds piling on him at once. We could even station special squads of bucket armed janitors at the door to every school, to be ready at a moment's notice. Would it work? Would people do it? I have no idea. I've given it no real thought. I've done no research into this, or even considered how stupid this would sound if I said it out loud or, god forbid, wrote it down and published it for all the world to see.
@Rafer Janders:
Shut the thread down. Rafer just won it.
Rafer, I award you the Internet. Enjoy it during these last moments on Earth before the Mayan Apocolypse.
@Rafer Janders: Good one!
I'd also like us to encourage male (and they must be male, because girls throw funny) janitors to bucket throw at shooters
Ok… all joking aside, as a last ditch effort (if one cannot escape the shooter), this actually isn't a bad strategy (the best option in a really BAD situation).
If you haven't seen it, check out this "how to survive a mass shooting" video put together by Homeland Security and the Mayor of Houston's office [warning, while not bloody, its graphic and intense]. Bucket, or rather chair throwing, does come up at the end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=5VcSwejU2D0#!
BTW, note that responding with concealed weapons doesn't come up in the video… I wonder why?
john personna says:
@mattb:
And a "bullet button" or similar "tool" requirement for magazine change.
Those would bet BETTER in my opinion than a bad gun list.
Teh Internet has already been won by Rafer above, but a couple more serious points …
Male aggression can be a good thing, as in protecting the weak — but it has been forced out of the culture of elementary schools
1) Apparently the 5'2″ female principal *did* attack, showing that aggression is not just a male trait, nor has it been "forced out" of elementary schools, whatever that's supposed to mean.
2) My son has had two different male teachers in preschool. Personally, I feel like there are *more* male teachers at the lower age levels now, but that's just my personal anecdote.
So I find no redeeming arguments in Allen's post. That said, a well-placed rock supposedly took down Goliath. Similarly, a well-timed bum rush by people equipped to take down an attacker can indeed work. But not many 12-year-olds fit that criteria, much less 10-year-olds. It reminds me of that old Internet meme – "how many 5-year-olds can you take in a fight?" – go ahead and Google it if you don't believe me.
JKB says:
Well, it is amusing in the confusion here. The problem isn't a lack of men, but a lack of sheepdogs to protect the sheeple. When it came, several of the adult (women) in the school seem to have had protect instincts but they had lounged in the culture that denigrates preparation for battle so their efforts proved futile. Not that the prepared might not have failed given such action still requires opportunity. Such action incurs risk. The preparation is what reduces that risk, the hand skills, the conditioning to attack rather than run, the ability to think in crisis, the awareness to openings.
There is no reason to think that a female former soldier or police officer wouldn't have been just as effective as a male former soldier or police officer who was a working as teacher. Or that a male teacher steeped in the ideology of the fine "education" colleges wouldn't have been just as ineffective. Sadly, our "education" colleges are hostile to sheepdogs and force most out leaving the sheeple in charge of the helpless.
And yes, there could have been a sheepdog or two among the students but it would take a bold leap for a child trapped in the victim mentality of our education system at that age.
But as much as the call for men or throwing buckets is idiotic so are the assertions there was nothing to be done. As much as Hollywood makes it look easy, so to do they make guns look far more effective than they are in the hands of most. Firstly, most gunshots don't immediately incapacitate the victim so those with the mind can keep fighting. Second, it isn't that easy to hit a moving target. Third, there are no rules, nothing says you have to rush them head on, you can hide and attack after they pass. etc.
The real key is we need to learn to be aware and to attack, not cower and rely on far distant police.
@JKB: I truly hope you are never faced with the chance to prove your hypotheses.
OzarkHillbilly says:
With one hand tied behind his back.
Gromitt Gunn says:
@JKB: Remind us all again how many trained US service members died at Ford Hood before the shooter was taken down.
@Gromitt Gunn: Obviously they were weak sheeple. What other conclusion can one reach?
@JKB:
Firstly, most gunshots don't immediately incapacitate the victim so those with the mind can keep fighting. Second, it isn't that easy to hit a moving target. Third, there are no rules, nothing says you have to rush them head on, you can hide and attack after they pass. etc.
Haven't you been the person on other threads advocating "know your weapons." He was using a high powered rifle shooting .233. As I mentioned in a different thread, a lot of sources have been advocating this as a home defense weapon due in part to it's stopping power (http://www.gunsandammo.com/2012/02/10/long-guns-short-yardage-is-223-the-best-home-defense-caliber/). So sorry, but you can't argue simultaneously for the two things.
Second, as I've pointed out, in most of the recent examples of people successfully stopping mass shootings, people have only rushed the shooter when they are reloading, the gun is jammed, or they've run out of ammo. Pretending that people routinely rush shooters while they are firing is pure bullshit.
Next, while you are right that moving targets are hard to hit, this was a shooting taking place in confined spaces — i.e. hallways and classrooms. There's not a lot of room to maneuver in those spaces.
Also, by all accounts, the shooter was sweeping rooms making hiding difficult.
And beyond all of that everything you are talking about involves training. So teachers, already stress for time, should take up martial arts and tactical shooting.
Like @Steven L. Taylor said, "I truly hope you are never faced with the chance to prove your hypotheses. "
I curious mattb, and perhaps you can correct me if I'm wrong. But the AR-15 is based on the M-16. What makes the M-16 so lethal is 1) the round, though small, is extremely fast and 2), more importantly, when the round hits, it is designed to tumble. This last is our way around the Geneva Convention that we are signatory to that outlaws ball ammunition: We use a round that is fully jacketed but acts like a ball round. Does the ammo for an AR-15 act the same way?
grumpy realist says:
When it came, several of the adult (women) in the school seem to have had protect instincts but they had lounged in the culture that denigrates preparation for battle so their efforts proved futile.
Let's see. A heavily armed person with a high powered rifle shooting .233 is shooting at you down a corridor. So if you manage to have been exposed to the correct culture this would somehow magically protect you from slugs ripping their way through your body?
Y'know, all those WWII movies of the brave hero attacking the Nazi machine-gun nest armed only with a Bowie knife and somehow managing to not get shot the entire time he's running uphill under live fire?
Those are movies. You may not realize it, but the actors in movies are armed with blanks. That's so it looks cool and neat and brave when the Good Guy is zig-zagging his way towards the Bad Guys.
In actuality, he would get blown into hamburger.
LaurenceB says:
The idiocy Charlotte Allen is displaying here is not so much idiocy as it is a poorly executed attempt to draw the news of the day to within reach of the issue which makes her the most money. Indeed, if she had successfully pulled this off without starting a firestorm it would have been a brilliant move that would have led to Fox News appearances, big bucks from conservative think tanks, and perhaps even another book – "Liberal Wussification and Blah, Blah, Blah" or something – where she could explain at greater length how wonderful men are, and how useless women are. Then maybe a radio deal.
(Oh, and Charlotte Allen is the nitwit who thinks that Sarah Palin will make a dandy presidential candidate in 2016. I think we've already established her levels of incompetence.)
I know we talk about the Peter Principle and rising to one's level of incompetence, but when that happens to be an opinion writer at NRO?
The mind boggles. I bet this women finds it difficult to get cat food out of a can.
@grumpy realist:
On April 21, 1945, Inouye was grievously wounded while leading an assault on a heavily-defended ridge near San Terenzo in Tuscany, Italy called Colle Musatello. The ridge served as a strongpoint along the strip of German fortifications known as the Gothic Line, which represented the last and most unyielding line of German defensive works in Italy. As he led his platoon in a flanking maneuver, three German machine guns opened fire from covered positions just 40 yards away, pinning his men to the ground. Inouye stood up to attack and was shot in the stomach; ignoring his wound, he proceeded to attack and destroy the first machine gun nest with hand grenades and fire from his Thompson submachine gun. After being informed of the severity of his wound by his platoon sergeant, he refused treatment and rallied his men for an attack on the second machine gun position, which he also successfully destroyed before collapsing from blood loss.
As his squad distracted the third machine gunner, Inouye crawled toward the final bunker, eventually drawing within 10 yards. As he raised himself up and cocked his arm to throw his last grenade into the fighting position, a German inside the bunker fired a rifle grenade that struck him on the right elbow, severing most of his arm and leaving his own primed grenade reflexively "clenched in a fist that suddenly didn't belong to me anymore". Inouye's horrified soldiers moved to his aid, but he shouted for them to keep back out of fear his severed fist would involuntarily relax and drop the grenade. As the German inside the bunker reloaded his rifle, Inouye pried the live grenade from his useless right hand and transferred it to his left. As the German aimed his rifle to finish him off, Inouye tossed the grenade off-hand into the bunker and destroyed it. He stumbled to his feet and continued forward, silencing the last German resistance with a one-handed burst from his Thompson before being wounded in the leg and tumbling unconscious to the bottom of the ridge. When he awoke to see the concerned men of his platoon hovering over him, his only comment before being carried away was to gruffly order them to return to their positions, since, as he pointed out, "nobody called off the war."
We could also train the "lunch ladies" to charge and attack with wield sharp kitchen knives.
@sam:
Here's the key parts of from that description of Inouye's attack above:
he proceeded to attack and destroy the first machine gun nest with hand grenades and fire from his Thompson submachine gun…..rallied his men for an attack…Inouye tossed the grenade off-hand into the bunker and destroyed it…..silencing the last German resistance with a one-handed burst from his Thompson
See that part about him being armed himself with multiple hand grenades and a Thompson submachine gun, and having the fire support of an entire infantry platoon behind him? That's hardly charging alone armed only with a bucket and a husky 12-year old by your side.
MBunge says:
If you're confronted with a crazed gunman right in front of you, you can't outrun a bullet so charging him is probably the best option. Somehow spreading that idea might not be terrible, but it doesn't change the fact that there's about a billion better things that could be done before getting to the "crazed gunman right in front of you" situation. Offering it up as an alternative to those billion better things or suggesting that children be trained to rush armed gunmen is deserving of an ass-kicking.
@sam: See above. Not to disparage Sen. Inouye's courage, but he was a) armed, and b) had backup.
If you were to draw any conclusions from Sen. Inouye's history, it would be that all elementary schools require grenades to be provided to all schoolchildren.
Have fun with that.
Andre Kenji says:
There are two issues here. Charlotte Allen´s article is really stupid, but on the other had, there is a high concentration of females in the Education sector. That´s pretty bad for a lot of reasons(Male students does not have male models in the school), but that CAN be a safety issue.
No one knows what male teachers and a male principal could have done(Probably, more of them would have been killed), but it´s harder to do things like barricades with a almost all female workforce. That was done in Virginia Tech, and the rapid response from the police avoided a bigger massacre in Sandy Hook(The guy could have killed the entirely building if the response was slow as was in Columbine). But in some situations that can be a problem.
It´s true, there little thing that even the most able unarmed male can do against a dude with a AR-15, but on the other hand there are situations where males can be helpful. A bigger proportion of male teachers is a good thing. I think that male dominated professions should have more women and vice-versa.
Guys, I'm aware of the fact that Dan Inouye was fully armed, etc. I only posted that to show that JKB's simple-mindedness about action under fire is just that, simple-minded. And stupid.
wr says:
@grumpy realist: "Not to disparage Sen. Inouye's courage, but he was a) armed, and b) had backup"
And he was attacking a Nazi bunker, not defending a school full of children. So the fact that hand grenades explode and kill anyone in a certain vicinity was a feature rather than, you know. a bug.
Not to disparage Sen. Inouye's courage, but he was a) armed, and b) had backup.
And (c) was a 21 year old highly trained infantryman expert in combat tactics.
But yes, give me a rifle platoon to provide cover fire, several grenades, a submachine gun, a helmet, and a year of close-combat drill instruction, and I'm sure I could have taken the Newtown gunman out. It's called taking personal responsibility for your own safety, people!
I don't understand the scorn heaped on Ms. Allen here. No one knows whether an opportunity arose at any point during the shooting for someone to grab and wrestle the guns away from the shooter because everyone is now dead.
That said, if an opportunity had arose, who is more likely to have successfully taken advantage of it, a male teacher of even below average upper body strength or the typical female school teacher? The guy. Obviously. Why is this remotely controversial?
Gustopher says:
I do begin to wonder whether some of this stupidity is deliberate — an attempt to shut down debate on sensible gun control laws by getting everyone discussing buckets and 12 year olds. Effectively, an effort to make the shootings into a joke.
People can't really be that stupid, can they?
Totally misread your intent. Apologies.
I curious mattb, and perhaps you can correct me if I'm wrong. But the AR-15 is based on the M-16. What makes the M-16 so lethal is 1) the round, though small, is extremely fast and 2), more importantly, when the round hits, it is designed to tumble.
That's my general understanding, with the caveat that the other Matt (no "B") is the gun expert, not me.
The rounds also are designed to fragment. The combination enables maximum stopping power. The tumbling and fragmenting combination means it's going to do an ass-ton of damage no matter where it hits.
There's also a safety benefit (if you will) which ties to why some people think these types of rifles are good for home defense. While the rifle is high powered, the fact the bullet tumbles and fragments when it makes contact make it less likely to go through walls or pass out of the body and into someone else.
Depending on the bullet specifics they can stop within 6 inches of ballistic gelatin — but do a hell of a lot of damage in those 6 inches.
@gVOR08:
@Steven L. Taylor:
I did something above that I should not have done. First, Steven is right, I was violating internet protocol by citing facts in a blog comment. But more seriously, there is an incredible level of this sort of thing coming out of the right. There is also a fair amount comment on the left that I might not feel is mistaken, but is basically inane.
I should not have engaged with the factual details as I did above. The fact is that Charlotte Allen's comments are insane. Literally insane. The details are irrelevant. We should engage at a meta level. The right has made a shiboleth of a caricature of the founders intent in the 2nd Amendment. The cognitive dissonance they are feeling right now over seeing the real world results of their belief will only drive them deeper into denial of reality.
The question is how to expose the insanity of the Charlotte Allens, and the greed of the Wayne LaPierres, so that they can be marginalized and the rest of us can move on. I should not engage with Allen's argument, the correct reponse is to point and laugh. Derisively, no humor.
@Jeff:
Welll, because the broader facts prove otherwise… For example, in the case of Tucson, the first person to jump the shooter (while he was changing magazines) was a *woman* (Patricia Maisch). From there a few onlookers joined in, one of whom was 74 — hardly an match for upper body strength.
The fact is sex has nothing to do with it and the entire premise was flawed from the beginning. Its an example of someone pretending to be an expert in a area she knew little to nothing about.
No one knows whether an opportunity arose at any point during the shooting for someone to grab and wrestle the guns away from the shooter because everyone is now dead.
The fact that everyone is now dead does seem to indicate that an opportunity for someone to grab and wrestle the guns away from the shooter did not, in fact, occur….
Plus, the thing about guns? They kill from a distance.
swbarnes2 says:
If the only virtue of male aggressiveness is to protect people from other male's aggression…yet another edition of awesome conservative logic.
And Charlotte Allens should not get all the blame. She has an editor who read her piece, and decided that it was a good fit for NR, that it was what NR readers wanted to read, and ought to read. And some editor in chief did the same. If Charlotte Allen is going to have her real name rightfully dragged through the mud, it's only fair that the other people who helped this piece see the light of day be cited by name also.
The problem isn't a lack of men, but a lack of sheepdogs to protect the sheeple.
Stopped reading at 'sheeple', and put the post in the "this is going to be a waste of time" category. Kind of like using "lieberal", or "repuglican", its a pretty sure signpost that the person can be ignored without missing anything.
[Note – this post is a bit off topic, but thought I'd add a bit more context to a couple things I've read here. Note I am writing this as a trained tactical self defense and martial arts instructor]
(1) On Inouye, in addition to the points everyone's raised about his heroic performance during the war, there's one other thing that needs to be understood. He (a) knew he was a soldier and (b) knew he was going into battle. Mindset is critical. One of the problems with self defense situations is that they are typically unexpected. Even a trained soldier or LEO has problems throwing "the switch" when surprised. So expecting anyone to immediately go from "teaching mode" to "get the m'f'er whose shooting at me in my school mode" is a HUGE leap and something that most people have neither the emotional disposition or the biological capacity to do "naturally." You can train to overcome this, but it takes a LOT of training.
(2) MBunge brought up running at the attacker. As crazy as he sounds, he's right with a few caveats (all of these work with knife and other weapon attacks as well):
1. This should only be done if there is no easily accessed escape route behind/to the side of you OR the shooter has you pinned down and is clearly moving towards you.
2. This is best done when there is a temporary break in shooting.
3. If you are going to do it, you need to own it — provided you move first, you can get up and run quicker than most shooters can process what you are doing and pull the trigger. If you dally, that gives the shooter time to react.
4. Provided there is an exit, it's better to run past the shooter than try to grapple with them. The key thing is to get BEHIND the business end of the weapon ASAP.
5. Believe it or not, most people, regardless of size can shift a gun off of them before a shooter pulls the trigger (provided he/she isn't already shooting). The problem is that most people grapple for the weapon with it still in front of them and that's when they get shot. Again get behind the weapon and get it pointing to the floor. At that point, scream and pray for help.
Now, all that said, please remember that few, if any of the people writing or reading this site will ever be in a self defense encounter with a gun, let alone a mass shooting (unless you live in a high crime area or are in an abusive relationship).
While any mass shooting is one too many, the fact is that on that Friday, only a single school was attacked. The idea that based on that one attack all teachers need to be militarized is the WORST form of moral panic. It's good to be diligent, but its also important to remember the real statistics.
@sam: Ah. My apologies.
So I see, because you can conceive of a scenario where attacking a killer unarmed might fail, the solution is to make people even more unarmed. Morons.
As @mattb: explains, yes, it is hard to shift mindset. But guess what, it is the only solution. Guns in schools? Great, if the staff member is one who wants to carry as a matter of lifestyle. But otherwise, the most enthusiastic will eventually feel the weight of the firearm and put it aside (safely) because nothing happened in months, years, etc. Armed guards, well at some point the PTA will decide that money could be better spent on a "diversity" counselor or something.
So what can you do if you are school staff to have some capability on the off chance between now and retirement the unthinkable happens? Some training in hand and weapons of opportunity, a development of the mindset to attack rather than recoil from threats, conditioning to keep your wits in crisis.
But no, some moron can think of a situation where a someone in the past was ineffectual against a crew-served machine gun manned by trained soldiers with pre-defined fields of fire and landmarks. Or even failed due to whatever reason against someone armed with a pixie stix?
Well, here's the reality, there are no assurances in life. Sometimes in life's drama, you aren't the star, sometimes, you die early in the first act. Sometimes you are the new crewmember on the Enterprise away team. Is that a reason not to try to rewrite the script some murder is trying to produce? Here's the hard part, so the squeamish should look away, odds are for any attack the attacker scenario to occur, you are already among the potential dead if not the most assured dead. So, trying and dying is better than cowering and praying they kill you last. And training, even years before, improves your chance of succeeding.
@mattb: Thanks much for your assessment and breakdown of the efficiency of the "rushing-the-bum" strategy and how to carry it out properly. I really wonder how many of the armchair Rambos posting on wingnut sites have actually ever been in the situation they are so blithely talking about. I've never had someone shooting at me (thank Aset), but from my own experience with cars and accidents, it's really hard to do ANYTHING when one is confronted with an out-of-control and dangerous situation. The only thing that kept running through my mind was "don't panic, don't panic, don't panic and make anything worse" and keeping my hands on the wheel and as much control as possible of the car. Now, if I had been a beginning driver, would I have reacted so calmly? I really doubt it.
What this boils down to is that if we want to be able to act under control while under fire from a crazy shooter, we're going to have to do a lot of training under similar situations to learn how to react.
Of course, we have already an institution for training adults to learn how to act correctly under fire. It's called the military…..does Charlotte Allen realize that the easiest way to get to her perfect "masculine" shield is to mandate military training for all young men? Amazing what NRO ends up banging the drum for….
So, trying and dying is better than cowering and praying they kill you last. And training, even years before, improves your chance of succeeding.
That's basically true. It comes down to odds – for any given school, the odds of an attack like this are tiny, so most teachers, janitors etc simply won't be motivated (past the initial concern after reading about such an attack) to put the effort into training. And even if you mandated training, lack of perceived need means it won't be taken seriously. Anyone who's ever trained in any combat sport or martial art sees this regularly – the people who stick with it are the ones who need to deal with it daily (meaning cops or security people), or people who just happen to enjoy it. People who start for self-defense, but don't enjoy the training, drop off quickly.
Most people, in these terms, aren't the red shirts of the enterprise, or the captain and crew who are the heroes, but the TV audience who only experiences these things through the media. And its hard to get people to seriously train for something that is very unlikely to happen. Even fire drills at work places tend to be ignored whenever possible, because the odds are against ever needing it.
No, I've no solution. I heard a radio interview where it claimed there've been something like 62 mass killers in the US in the last few decades. If that number is right, that's one person in a million going crazy, even if you limit yourself to the typical profile. I don't know how you really protect against that in an industrial society where there are so many mechanical means to kill people in large numbers. Most people who fit the profile of a mass killer (white male for instance has been thrown around the last few days), and by most I mean 999,999 out of every 1,000,000, aren't going to become a mass killer.
It's really far beyond parody now, isn't it? The gun nuts have gotten to the point where they're advocating close-combat training for kindergarten teachers as the "sensible" solution.
@swbarnes2: I looked at her original piece in NRO online. The comments are almost unamimously negative, and harsh. Whatever editor thought this was a fit with his audience was wrong. And if the commenters at NRO think you're a whackjob conservative, you are.
@Rafer Janders: You cannot parody modern American conservatives.
Tsar Nicholas says:
That article is a can or two short of a six-pack, but that aside let's not pretend that there isn't a salient and cogent underlying point.
Firepower has major deterrent effects. If a guy wants to shoot a place up and arrives at one spot but there's a guy standing outside the front door with a gun most often he'll move along to the next place. And if that school in Newtown was known to have had even one armed guard on its premises Lanza probably would have gone for another target. A much less heinous target. We can't guarantee that, but probabilities are probabilities and even mere likelihoods are likelihoods.
Rather than spending public money handing out condoms and having kids sing odes to Obama, and like matters, perhaps our K-12 districts should recruit retired and semi-retired military and law enforcement personnel to stand guard at their schools. They'd probably not even have to spend all that much money. I suspect they could sign up a lot of volunteers.
A slightly different turn on what JKB said…
I encourage everyone to do a good* self defense course at some point in their lives. Not because it's likely you're going to be involved in a mass shooting, or because you might be mugged or assaulted on the street — statistically speaking you are far more likely to be attacked by someone you know than the stranger danger most people imagine.
The reason is that basic self defense (mental, emotional, and physical) is a good life skill to have. And really, the two key areas that matter the most are the mental and emotional skills. And the lessons you learn — provided you commit to practicing them — can have an incredibly positive effect on the rest of your life (because we are always involved in conflicts of one type or another).
Beyond that, find that one thing (and make it only one) in your life that matters more than anything else to you. That's going to be the thing that you have to protect. And the best way to protect it is to make sure you always get home safe. You need to be willing to fight for something — because most people are not willing to fight for themselves alone. That's a far greater motivator for most people than JKB's warrior based "you're dead until you fight your way back to life."
Finally, learn to listen to your gut. If you think something is wrong, it probably is. The biggest problem most people have is that they deny there is something going on until its way to late to easily remove oneself from the situation.
But again, this should be done not out of fear that you'll be the victim of a mass shooting, but out of an interest in bettering your life.
* What's a good self defense program? It's easier to negatively define.
– Ask to see an instructor's self defense (not martial arts) certification. If the instructor isn't affiliated with an existing self defense system, I'd be really wary. If (s)he's says that it's based on karate, TKD, or another traditional martial art, I've be very, very wary.
– Any good program needs to be done over a few days/weeks. A three hour program is not enough.
– Ask to see a copy of the curriculum/ask about the following things:
– If they only talk about "stranger danger" or "unknown attackers", skip it. A good course should spend time talking about how to deal with attacks from people you know.
– If they don't teach verbal deescalation — talking someone down — skip it. Verbal defense skills are the single most important thing most people should take away from a self defense class.
– If it looks like it will primarily focus on "specific answers" — i.e. how to escape XYZ wrist lock — or complex motor skills — any striking beyond palms, knees, and elbows — skip it. Look for programs that keep things simple and broad.
– If they do not dedicate time to practice the mental and emotional aspects of a confrontation, skip it.
– If they don't discuss the legal aspects of self defense, skip it.
– If they don't do role playing or at least light pressure testing, skip it.
– If they say you're not going to physically exert yourself or sweat, skip it.
@Tsar Nicholas: Interesting world you want to live in. Extrapolating logically, your "gun rights" means we have to have a security guard armed with an Uzi at the entrance of every public building.
Are you willing to pay taxes to hire and train all these people?
Thought so…..
Just Me says:
I actually think the lack of male teachers in education-especially elementary would be an interesting debate although not because they are better equipped to tackle shooters carrying rifles.
I completely agree with this one. Our family often jokes that in the movies the bad guys are always bad shots and the good guys somehow have magic, invisible bullet repelling armor
I think in general most people recognize movies are fantasy, but I can also see where movies where the bad buys almost always miss and the good guys never get hit may lead some to think shoot outs aren't all that dangerous.
Even if there were a teacher or police officer in the school carrying a pistol, he or she would have been at a big disadvantage vs. Lanza's Bushmaster. There's an old saying that the only purpose of a handgun in a gunfight is to fight your way back to the rifle or shotgun you shouldn't have left behind.
Google "1986 Miami shootout" to see what happened when a determined, unafraid-to-die criminal armed with a Mini-14 (same caliber as Lanza's gun, but with a smaller magazine) went up against several highly trained FBI agents armed with handguns. Quick summary: it became the worst day in FBI history.
Suppose someone was aiming a gun at you, shouting threats and curse words and otherwise scaring the bejesus out of you. Now suppose a bystander jumped the person holding the gun, attempting to knock the gun from his hand or at least knock him off balance so that if he fired, the bullet would miss you and go astray.
Assuming you had a choice, would you prefer this bystander to be built more like, say, Big Papi or more like Ichiro?
The defense rests.
@Jeff: Actually, if Ichiro is anything like all the Ichiros I know, he's a black belt in karate and is a damn sight better at assessing and handling a lunatic than Big Papi who used to play football 30 years ago but whose most typical exercise since then has been lifting a Bud while in front of the TV.
Remember the Japanese during WWII? You think our soldiers thought they were pussies?
@Jeff: If we are going to play pretend, how's about pulling out a wand and shouting "expelliarmus!" thus disarming my foe.
I mean if, after all, we can just make up our own scenarios.
Frankly, at this point, I hope th@Rafer Janders: "See that part about him being armed himself with multiple hand grenades and a Thompson submachine gun, and having the fire support of an entire infantry platoon behind him? That's hardly charging alone armed only with a bucket and a husky 12-year old by your side. "
And he got the nation's highest award, because what he did was extraordinary, even for combat veterans in the heat of battle (both the doing and the surviving).
@Gustopher: "People can't really be that stupid, can they?"
Rand Paul was elected to the senate.
Next question!
@mattb: I know I've been critical of your posts in other threads — okay, rude — but I wanted to say that I thought this was really smart and terrific. I particularly liked your point about expectations, which I haven't seen raised anywhere. Thank you.
@Jeff: "I don't understand the scorn heaped on Ms. Allen here. "
She's stupid. I can see how this slides by wayyyy over your head 🙂
@Steven L. Taylor: Surely a true latinate would use "expelliate"!, no?
@Tsar Nicholas: "Rather than spending public money handing out condoms and having kids sing odes to Obama, and like matters, perhaps our K-12 districts should recruit retired and semi-retired military and law enforcement personnel to stand guard at their schools. They'd probably not even have to spend all that much money. I suspect they could sign up a lot of volunteers."
But of course for this vital mission, we can't depend on volunteers. What if one doesn't show up on the right day?
So let's do a little math. According to a Google search, there are roughly 132,000 schools teaching some levels of K-12 in the USA. Are we saying that one guard per school is enough? I'm having trouble seeing that, since most schools have multiple entrances and exits. So let's say we're going to need two guards per school. You're probably going to need them maybe eight hours a day, give or take, depending on the pre- and after-school activities.
Now pay is an issue. A good Republican like you would probably say give them minimum wage, just like the security guys at Walmart. But you're asking for guards who have special weapons training, so to be fair we're going to have to kick that up to at least ten bucks an hour. So $160 per day per school. The average school year is 180 days, so that's $28,800 per school in salary alone. There will be benefits, so we'd better kick it up to $35,000. Now let's multiply that by our number of schools, and we get a national cost of more than four and a half billion dollars.
I don't know exactly how much our schools spend on free condoms and odes to Obama, but my guess is it's slight less.
So tell me, Tsar, where is that four and a half billion dollars coming from?
@grumpy realist: Your complaint is with J.K. Rowling, not Dr. Taylor. Ms. Rowling will get back to you after she's done rolling around in a pile of pounds sterling.
There is one thing from my time in the military as a REMF that rings true regarding this thread, if I had to pull my side arm, we were totally screwed. No matter how good of a shot I was, a 9 millimeter was of little or no use when confronted with an M-16 or equivalent. To argue that males at the school would have made a difference is asinine.
I looked at her original piece in NRO online. The comments are almost unamimously negative, and harsh. Whatever editor thought this was a fit with his audience was wrong. And if the commenters at NRO think you're a whackjob conservative, you are.
It's not clear to me that the commenters are NRO readers. The very oldest comments are likely regular NRO readers, and they talk about gun control, not the sexism. Then there's a post where someone get 441 upvotes, and that must be when word started to spread about the article, and sane people who aren't NRO readers descended to express their disgust.
Or, to put it another way, I start with the premise that the editors were doing their jobs (to put out material that their subscribers want) adequately, and since this article has been so widely publicized, I wouldn't take negative comments as evidence against that premise.
stonetools says:
the point is JKB is that a lot of things have to go wrong before you're faced with a disturbed teenager in a kindergarten blasting away at unarmed children with semi-automatic weapons equipped with high capacity magazines.
You start first with a mentally disturbed teenager. Is he being treated? Well, most likely not, because conservatives like to cut funding for outpatient treatment because "moochers", 47 per cent, etc.
What's his home situation? Well, his mother is a survivalist who swallowed wingnut propaganda about surviving the coming crackup through superior firepower, so he lives in a house with all kinds of lethal weapons close to hand.
How is she able to "acquire this arsenal? Well, the gun nuts have been pushing their vision of " all guns, all the time" with zero accountability for sellers and no screening of buyers so that anyone can get any semi-auto weapons they want, any time they want,without any requirements for safe storage, because [insert macho fantasy].
Now, sound forward planning would seem to indicate that you can mostly avoid these type scenarios with sensible legislation, so you don't have to contemplate suicide charges on madmen armed with high powered weaponry. That scenario doesn't have to be.
But i guess its easier to contemplate that scenario than change the mindset that brings you an increased chance of the mentally ill guy with the high powered rifle running amok.
I was using a hypothetical to try to illustrate a pretty obvious point that you and your commentariat seem to be having a difficult time grasping, but it appears my attempts to prod people into a bit of not-very-abstract reasoning have proven a failure. Perhaps they are not up to the task.
Don't fret over it, though. I will try my hardest not to make a mistake like this again.
@Jeff: Well, my point was, abstract though it may have been, is that your hypothetical already assumed that there was someone capable of jumping the assailant. This assumes a scenario not in evidence. The main problem here being that it is unlikely to be so easy to jump someone engaged in an attack using a semiautomatic assault rifle.
(The point being, among other things, that you cannot just draw up the most favorable scenario and use it as a "the defense rest'/QED position.)
So … John wakes up … to find that "the thing" on the right now is that semi-automatic assault rifles are no big, you just have to stand up to them.
(Don't feed the trolls, even when they have by-lines at major outlets.)
And yet you eagerly assume that banning the possession of weapons by law abiding people will stop the next murderer from going on his killing spree?
But, of course, the goal is not to reduce crime or stop mass murders but to exploit tragedies to pursue the ultimate goal of disarming the populace.
Now it would have been wiser if those who came before you had not spelled out the plan and we didn't have this dastardly internet which keeps everything and forgets nothing.
Timothy Watson says:
I do enjoy the right-wing nuts saying that every elementary school should have a SWAT/ERT team inside. It's amazing that that conservatives seem to think that the United States should operate like some failed state that needs armed guards at every school.
@john personna:
Yeah. This isn't a new argument; NRO writers were calling the students at Virginia Tech cowards too for not rushing the gunmen. It's the Just World Theory that all conservatives live by. When horrible things happen to other people, it's not a problem; because those people got what they deserved by making some kind of moral mistake.
@swbarnes2: If it's so easy to defeat someone wielding an assault rifle — heck, a ten year old kid can do it if he has the guts to rush the guy — why do the righties keep insisting they're necessary for self-protection? If you can't fight off a determined fourth grader with one of these things, seems to me that they're not worth all the bother.
@JKB: I haven't actually advocated for any particular policy, although I will confess that I see zero reason for high capacity magazines to be available and honestly don't see a need for assault rifles to be legal. In general I will confess to not having a specific policy agenda.
I will say this, however: any rational person willing to assess the evidence has to deal with the fact that countries with more restrictive gun laws don't have these kinds of events the way we do in the US.
An Interested Party says:
Those are real fighting words coming from an idiot…say, why don't you look for a situation similar to what happened at Sandy Hook and try to rush the gunman…let us know how that turns out…of course, we'll probably need a medium to contact you at that point…
Rather than spending public money handing out condoms and having kids sing odes to Obama, and like matters, perhaps our K-12 districts should recruit retired and semi-retired military and law enforcement personnel to stand guard at their schools.
You've already hinted at your fascist police state tendencies…thanks for reaffirming what we already suspected…
I was using a hypothetical to try to illustrate a pretty obvious point ridiculous fantasy that you and your commentariat seem to be having a difficult time grasping taking seriously, but it appears my attempts to prod people into a bit of not-very-abstract reasoning visit Fantasy Land have proven a failure. Perhaps they are not up to the task I need to return to reality.
Happy to be of help…
I love how JKB, incapable of forming an argument, simply resorts to calling everybody morons. And in the meantime, his comrade Tsar turns a discussion that has nothing to do with Obama into an attack on Obama.
And you guys probably wonder why you get downvotes. It's because you don't know how to argue effectively.
Jeff, I know a couple female school teachers who'd probably whip your azz, all things being equal . . .
I guess McArdle went from "I'm so cute because I know what 'automatic' means" to "rush the shooter."
Small magazines and a tool requirement for magazine swaps are reasonable steps, and will do a lot more for you than "full auto is illegal so why worry."
Friday, 21 December 2012 at 12:12
The NRA has the solution, Congess needs to appropriate money so every school can have an armed guard. Of course there is no suggestion on paying for it, like a tax on assault weapons or anything…
@David:
What I love most about the NRA — following their logic you need a gun to protect yourself from the son of the organization's president.
New NRA Prez David Keene's Son Is a Convicted Road-Rage Shooter
Clearly we need to arm ourselves to protect ourselves from NRA supporters!
@wr:
You definitely got ahead of the news with that math.
I don't really think that armed security are needed at *every* school, but I wouldn't mind subtracting $5B off the top of the defense budget and shifting it over. It would probably have more jobs/$ than anything over there. Jobs for veterans as well.
I guess the worst thing is that I find that totally unsurprising.
I don't really think that armed security are needed at *every* school, but I wouldn't mind subtracting $5B off the top of the defense budget and shifting it over.
I think what makes far more sense is that the cost of security is paid for by a tax on all guns and ammunition. Especially since all the guns and ammunition in the recent mass shootings have been all legally purchased. Whatever additional monies are left after salaries are paid for should be placed into a fund for victims of future shootings.
If gun owners moan about the tax, they need to be reminded that they were the ones who didn't want any additional regulations on what they could or could not buy.
But this shouldn't be an unfunded mandate (don't Republicans hate them?) and it shouldn't have to come out of local budgets (especially if security is required to be at every school).
@mattb: My thoughts exactly. The NRA had a real way to get in front of this by not only advocating this idea but recommending a tax on ammo and gun sales to pay for it. Instead we get bigger government and more spending from the Republican side of the aisle (yeah, I know, NRA is not the republican party, but show me a republican that can get elected if the NRA is against them).
I guess I'd be OK with that.
The only procedural problem would be that the yahoos would build personal arsenals before the effective date, probably resulting in a net increase in private arms and ammunition ownership.
(A slowly ramped rate of tax might reduce the "nudge" towards "buy now.")
Freeh Report Slams Joe Paterno, Other Penn State Officials, On Sandusky Scandal
Sandy Hook Shooting Families File Legally Dubious Lawsuit Against AR-15 Manufacturer
More Sandy Hook Families Sue Alex Jones
Trump Floats Idea Of Arming School Teachers
Judge Denies Alex Jones Bid To Dismiss Defamation Lawsuit


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Security through Default and Swift Declassification: Cooperation between the Intelligence Community and the crowd increases accountability, transparency, and resourcefulness
Title: Security through Default and Swift Declassification: Cooperation between the Intelligence Community and the crowd increases accountability, transparency, and resourcefulness
Author: Dylan Coyle
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Trump's Praise for Greg Gianforte's (R-MT) Assault of Reporter Marks a Startling New Low
In response to President Trump's comments at a rally in Montana in which he openly praised Congressman Greg Gianforte for assaulting a reporter, PEN America CEO Suzanne Nossel released the statement below:
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PEN America stands at the intersection of literature and human rights to protect open expression in the United States and worldwide. We champion the freedom to write, recognizing the power of the word to transform the world. Our mission is to unite writers and their allies to celebrate creative expression and defend the liberties that make it possible. pen.org
CONTACT: Anoosh Gasparian, External Relations Manager: [email protected]
Tags: Greg Gianforte, Press Freedom, TrumpGenre: Press ReleaseTopic: press freedomCategory: Advocacy, News & AnalysisCountry: United States


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Apotheos Roastery
The Apotheos Story
What gives something value? Its rarity? Quality? Usefulness?
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