Do we want good news or do we want bad news?
At this point in the cycle, with the Fed wanting to tighten like mad we definitively and sadly want bad news, we want weaker than expected data and we literally have to hope for a weak jobless number on Friday.
How did we get to this point? Because the stock market changed its coloration, or perhaps I should say its species, on two days in October, the third and the fourth. On the third as my friend Ed Yardeni accounts in his incredibly good Yardeni Report, Fed Chief Jerome Powell told Judy Woodruff on PBS that "the really accommodative low interest rates that we needed when the economy was quite weak, we don't need those anymore. At the same time Powell was quoted by CNBC as saying "interest rates are still accommodative, but we are gradually moving to a place where they will be neutral. We may go past neutral but we're a long way from neutral at this point, probably."
The next day? That's the day that Vice President Pence laid out our cold war battle plan versus China in a speech that I think could easily lead one to believe that we favor regime change in the Peoples Republic. The speech talked about how China is waging a multi-front campaign against our nation. "Beijing is employing a whole of government approach, using political, economic and military tools as well as propaganda to advance its influence and benefit its interests in the United States. "
This was the speech that laid out for all to see that there is a much bigger agenda than trade at stake. It's multi-faceted war. First there's the made in China 2025 plan that must be stopped. To quote Pence again: "The communist party has set its sights on controlling 90% of the world's most advanced industries including robotics, biotechnology and artificial intelligence."
He then talks about how we funded Chinese expansion with our trade deficit, propping up the Communist state's ability to tamp dissent, persecute religions and fund tyranny all over the globe. The speech is about containing the Chinese and stopping their desire for world hegemony and the only way to do it is to stop trade until they play fair or until they fall.
In other words, this speech might as well be called the Pence Doctrine and the doctrine is to stop commerce with China until this regime changes its ways, something that is highly doubtful, which makes more tariffs almost a given. In what's a new twist on an old interchange between James Bond and Goldfinger, Bond asks, "Do you expect me to talk?" and Goldfinger shoots back, "No Mr. Bond, I expect you to die." Yep we don't' want talks, we want the regime to perish.
If you go back and look at the turmoil that characterized this miserable month - at least for the bulls because it's been nirvana for the bears - it all started right then, a one-two punch we are still reeling from.
Now you can tell from the "action" that each day has multiple sessions: we've had three so far but the sessions are largely controlled not by the company reports but by the Fed and the president.
Yesterday we took a header when we heard that the president is going to slap tariffs on the rest of Chinese goods if talks between he and President Xi breakdown. If you ask me it was right that stocks got hit because if you read the Pence speech it's pretty clear that there is no way for Xi to give in to Trump's demands as outlined by Pence.
However, there should be a silver lining for the market: more tariffs means slower world growth which should cause the Fed to temper its enthusiasm - President Trump might say, glee - for raising rates.
Instead, though we have to deal with the fact that the Fed regards tariffs as inflationary - they make goods more expensive so there's only a negative reaction.
I want you to understand that every single piece of data is being scrutinized with this prism of good news/bad news where definitive weaker news now drives stocks up and strong news takes it down.
This morning we got the S&P Case-Shiller 20 city index and it showed a .1% bump, the lowest annual increase in 20 months. That's the bad news a bull should want. But just a second: the hawkish Powell could say houses have still advanced 5.5% over last year. A bull would counter that at this pace, with this trajectory, home prices will decrease next month. But a bear would say, we need to see that occur and even then Powell might not care because he does not want to be data dependent like his predecessor Janet Yellen. He wants to normalize rates although, of course, does anyone really know what normal is when central banks control most rates around the world and they are ridiculously low?
Sometimes it's become downright ludicrous. I saw Marty Mucci, the CEO of Paychex (PAYX) was on "Squawk Box" this morning and he said that the his proprietary business sentiment survey showed an uptick. "Entrepreneurs are more positive in nearly every aspect of business this fall compared to early summer."
Boo. Hiss. That's' not what we want.
But wait a second: the Paychex/IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch numbers came out today and they gave us what we want Powell to see: "Hourly earnings rose .08 to 2.41 percent year-over-year, while job growth decreased .77 percent from a year ago." Ah ha, now think of what this means. Workers have gotten too expensive so companies aren't hiring as many people as they were.
But just a second, don't get too excited about the bad news: The Conference Board released data showing that its consumer confidence index rose to an 18 year high, going from 137.9 versus 135.3 in September. Score one for Powell's intransigence.
Hey, wait just a second, oil is plummeting, having one of its worst months in ages. If oil is going down so precipitously how can the economy be too hot to handle?
This battle plays out not just with big stats but also with small ones. What does it mean that Under Armour (UAA) had a much better than expected quarter and the stock rallies 23%. David Faber asked me isn't that a convincing bit of anecdotal evident that Powell could be right? But Carl Quintanilla came right back and pointed out that a lot of the strength was in international and I said that it was really a reflection that the bad inventory has finally cleaned up.
Oh, and who cares about UnderArmour when GE (GE) reports a staggering loss and cuts its dividend dramatically and its stock falls to levels not seen since the august period of April 2009.
Now let's sum this one up. What do we really want to happen if we want to be constructive toward stocks? We need definitively mixed data like we are getting. That allows Powell to raise in December and then give an ode to his processor Janet Yellen, simply acknowledging that the data is weak enough that while the Fed needs to be vigilant it doesn't want to reach the wrong conclusion about the strength of the economy and raise too far too fast so any plans to put through three rate increases next year are now on hold waiting for more clear cut information.
There's only one problem with this. Who wants to take his cue from some television wise guy? Ah ha, the final parry, don't you wish they had taken my cue 11 years ago when I shouted to the rooftops they know nothing because things were so much weaker underneath.


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Home/Games/Solar Ash Is A Great Starting Point For The Next 3D Sonic Game
Solar Ash Is A Great Starting Point For The Next 3D Sonic Game
Solar Ash is a great game that cherry-picks ideas from Jet Set Radio, Shadow of the Colossus, and Super Mario Galaxy. However, only one series came to mind as I skated across its teal clouds: Sonic the Hedgehog. More specifically, the 3D entries, which are the oft-maligned titles responsible for decades of headaches for the Blue Blur.
I'll admit that I'm a Sonic traditionalist. My love of Sonic, like many other 30-somethings, began on the Sega Genesis, so I firmly believe the character is at his best in 2D. Sonic 2 is my favorite in the series and Sonic Mania, the 2017 throwback developed by a team of fans rather than Sonic Team proper, is the best entry in years.
The 3D installments have never gotten Sonic right. Yes, even the Adventure series, which I respect but still maintain are bad games. Sonic Colors plays the best of the batch, but even that has plenty of problems (and has a far superior 2D counterpart on DS that more people should play). I've always found the behind-the-back roller coaster approach takes away too much control. You're usually just sitting there watching Sonic sprint through a zillion loops and rings. It's less about flow and more about watching things go really fast until you can play again. When you do get your hands back on Sonic, he often feels slippery and imprecise. Losing momentum sucks because of how troublesome it is to get back on track. These games also tend to be janky overall.
Now, I'm not opposed to playing a great 3D Sonic game. There just haven't been any. Then Solar Ash skates along. This is an experience all about the flow of movement. Rei, the game's speedster protagonist, controls like a dream. A lot of that is thanks to mapping her acceleration to a shoulder trigger, similar to a racing title. That makes her easy to control, and you know when to hit the gas and when to break. That mechanic could work just as well with Sonic. Or Shadow the Hedgehog for that matter, given he and Rei share an affinity for rollerblading. And Shadow needs all the help he can get.
Anyway, the most important thing about Solar Ash is how the level design focuses on maintaining and challenging your flow of movement. There's plenty of platforming, but the design allows you to avoid pitfalls while destroying enemies without needing to hit the brakes. The game also never takes control away; even grind sequences require you to hold a button down to stay on track. This extends to environmental puzzles that challenge your speed, such as racing through an organic network of landmines to locate and kill a target. Solar Ash's approach to boss battles, which essentially boil down to speedrunning epic Shadow of the Colossus-style battles, are fantastic tests of Rei's maneuverability. The tight attack windows simultaneously challenge your aim and reflexes in an awesome way. It's smart boss design for a speed-focused hero, and I would love to see Sonic expand on it.
And with all of this, Solar Ash doesn't bog the experience down with too many mechanics. It's a clean adventure with a small handful of features that the world design takes full advantage of. 3D Sonic titles have always felt closer to standard platforming levels through which you run very fast, but not always because you're stopping to smash through stacks of boxes or enemies that can't be torn through as easily. You also have to juggle whatever power-of-the-month Sonic has that time around. They just feel messier by comparison. The Genesis entries, namely the first two, worked because they had a "less is more" mentality. Sonic 3/Knuckles, while good, was when the series started getting a too feature-dense in its level design, and it snowballed from there. Solar Ash is a good example of what happens when you scale back and focus on accentuating the core mechanic.
I'm not saying the next Sonic needs to be a chili dog-flavored carbon copy of Solar Ash. But I believe Heart Machine's sophomore outing presents an excellent template for what a well-made 3D Sonic game could look like, and I hope that Sonic Team takes notice. Especially since it's been heavily rumored that the 2022's yet-to-be-titled Sonic game will take a more freeform, open-world approach. It used to be hard to imagine what that would look like, but Solar Ash paints a wonderful picture that Sonic Team should admire while jotting down plenty of notes. And behind it should be Warner Bros./DC if they feel like giving the Flash another shot in video games – but that's a discussion for another time.
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Q: op amp level shifter no input situation I tried out op-amp level shifters on web. The ones recomended here as well but there is a problem when no input applied. The output voltage is no seperable from the case voltage applied. As i understand it is called op-amp biasing. I am trying to apply reference voltage with shift voltage but calculation isnt simple. So i am guessing there is a commoon way to do it.
How can i sense opamp level shifter has no inputs or how to bias that shifter?

And my biasing idea is like that:

A: If the input is disconnected, if that's what you mean by "no input", the output will not be midscale on the ADC. It will be indistinguishable from a 1.6V input.
You can deal with that by buffering the input (voltage follower) and adding a high-value resistor to ground on the input of the buffer, but you'd need power supplies higher than +/-5V for the buffer amplifier (how much higher depends on the op-amp used).
You can also apply a reference voltage other than ground to the left end of R1 in your top diagram, but it will have to be a negative reference voltage to shift the output above ground. That would allow a single op-amp with a single supply, but you need a negative reference voltage.
You could also add a resistor from the ADC input (right hand side of R? on your top diagram) to a positive reference, which would allow a single op-amp to be used again, but that op-amp would need a negative supply to allow the output to go to zero.

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