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LIVE from the International Builders' Show 2020
The following was recorded live at the 2020 International Builders' Show in Las Vegas, Nevada. It features a panel of Epcon home builders discussing how they've simplified and diversified their companies through a home‑building franchise model.
Jad Buckman: Good afternoon. Thank you all for being with us today at the 2020 International Builders' Show in Las Vegas. I'm Jad Buckman, business development director for Epcon Franchising.
With us, we have John Delin, CEO of the Integrity Group out of Dallas/Fort Worth, and Andy Dreyfuss, partner with Nova Triad Homes out of Winston‑Salem.
We have two gentlemen here with strong ties to custom building. John was a custom builder who made his way through that life to becoming a builder‑developer. And Andy is the flip of that. Andy is a developer who used to sell lots to custom home builders, who has become a builder‑developer.
A little bit about these guys' companies. Integrity Group is led by John and his brother Steve Delin. Integrity's first project in the production world was single‑family, active adult community in DFW, Ladera Keller.
This was 115 homes priced from 275 to 500. The market success was proven. These guys sold 115 semi‑custom homes in 26 months.
Currently, Integrity is actively engaged in five other Ladera active adult communities in DFW and have separated themselves as the top choice for active seniors in the DFW market. In 2019, these gentlemen closed over a hundred homes.
Nova Triad, Andy's company, Andy leads them out of Winston‑Salem. He has raised over 30 million to acquire and construct multiple subdivisions across Forsyth, Guilford, and Alamance Counties.
Currently, Nova Triad has five active adult home communities in Winston‑Salem, Greensboro, Burlington, Mebane, and Asheboro. Andy and his team accomplished 39 closings for over 13 million in sales in 2019 and project 50 in 2020. So we've got guys who should be able to give quite a bit of value to this group today.
I want to get a little engagement from the audience before we get going. By a show of hands, how many of you are currently building custom homes in the room? Very good. So the vast majority.
Any of you building other product in addition to your custom home‑building business? So just a few. How many of you have considered diversifying your business to find more efficiency? So we've got quite a few in that world.
With that guys, we're going to kick it off, and we'll start with John. I think what would be helpful would be to start with a little bit about the market dynamics in DFW when you guys made the shift and jumped into production building.
John Delin: Sure. Thank you for having us here. Anybody remember there was a little old bump in the road in 2012? Yeah? I tend to forget pain too.
We had been working as custom builders for a number of years. I probably have almost 35 years' experience now.
I had really had started seeing signs of a shift in the marketplace in DFW and was really looking at different opportunities to be able to offset what was probably going to be a turbulent time.
We were already beginning to see it in the custom market and had started looking into what we do today, active adult communities, and had spent quite of time studying that and understanding it.
And so, in 2012, we started our first one, and it was quite dramatic to make that jump from doing a dozen to 20 custom homes a years to starting to be in the volume‑builder market, but the market dynamics for DFW made that possible.
Of course, like some of you all know, in some of your other markets, in DFW, I was glad I did because it wiped out a tremendous amount of the custom home builders, the 2008 to 2012 market crash. For us, it was perfect timing to be able to offset what I call a new economy and a new part of the way home‑building was to be done.
And so, we focused all in, moved all of our chips into what we do with that, and we have at least five communities under production right now, and expect to start over 200 homes this year, so our volume is rapidly growing.
Jad: Absolutely. Thanks, John. Andy, same question to you. A vastly different market. What were the conditions that brought you into this world of production in active adult?
Andy Dreyfuss: Sure. First of all, my partners and I decided in 2009 to do the opposite, and we purchased about 20 subdivisions over three years in Greensboro, Winston‑Salem, Burlington, busted subdivisions, to be candid, from developers, and we started selling lots.
We had about 1,500 lots, and we were selling them from custom builders building $800,000 homes, which is in our part of North Carolina very expensive, all the way down to D.R. Horton building $135,000 homes, apartment substitutions.
So we watched all the builders in our geography. In particular, we watched the baby boomer market. We saw what was happening and we knew it was coming, and we saw a high‑end builder in Greensboro start selling $450,000 patio homes in the recession. We liked what we saw.
And then we saw an Epcon franchisee in Burlington sell about 35 homes a year behind a cemetery next to a mobile home park. So like, hmm, these guys are onto something, and we wanted to diversify.
In about 2015, we said, look, we want to become builders. We certainly don't have the expertise to be a custom builder. We don't want to compete with D.R. Horton. What can we do that's in the middle, that's really focused on baby boomers because we knew that they were coming?
In 2015, 15 percent of the American population was over 65. Today, it's 20 percent. And for the first time in American history, we will have more people over 65 than under 18 very shortly.
So we wanted a product that we could scale. Our market is not large. It's 3,500 permits per year. We wanted something where we could get about two‑percent market share, two‑to‑three‑percent market share, 70 to 90 homes a year.
We liked the baby boomer, patio home market, in particular, where the HOA mows the yard, right? When you're 70, you're not going to mow your yard. You've earned the break. So we saw the Epcon product and decided to become franchisees and it's been good ever since.
Jad: Thanks, Andy. John, we're going to direct this one to you. We talk about DFW. Everyone knows that's one of the mega markets. We've got people in here who compete in those big markets.
Can you talk to us about the strategies that you've used to separate yourself and compete with those larger regional and national builders?
John: Sure. The major part was getting it out of my brain that I wasn't a custom home builder anymore and we weren't a custom home‑building firm anymore.
I've been blessed that we're a family business. My brother partners with me. Both my sons run important parts of the operation. My youngest, he's VP of the residential operation. And what's really great is they're way smarter than me, so they make everything I do look good and look easy.
But we had to get it out of our brain and that was a little bit challenging at first. In order to go ahead and try to make that transition and say you're going to, again, go from 20 homes a year to now ‑‑ our starts will be where they're headed towards ‑‑ everything has to change differently.
You have to think differently, the way that you organize your structure. I think in 2012, after the recession, there was 5 of us left, and today, we're over 50 team members strong.
And so, we had to find and do the right things as far as bringing on the right people, put them in the right places that could make life easier. If we didn't, we were all going to be working our tail feathers off a whole lot just like we used to do in the custom homebuilding business.
But this time, it's a simpler model, and you can really increase your capacity dramatically by changing your mindset and then learning from a whole bunch of people that already know.
That was the other thing. I've always been a great student, and we work directly with Phil Fankhauser, one of the founders of Epcon. He did a lot of teaching that I was able to soak up and our team was able to soak up to help us make that transition.
It is not easy to go from 30 to over 300, so there's just a lot of things that fully come into play that you don't ever even think about when you're in the customs side that now all of a sudden come about when you're in the volume‑building side.
Jad: Can I ask you one more question, sir?
John: Sure.
Jad: I think one of the things, as we were talking about this discussion today that's helped Ladera become that number one choice is the lifestyle. Can you talk a little bit about your unique lifestyle that you guys produce in your communities?
John: Sure. The main thing that we started doing was trying to look differently at the market we were in because we compete against Del Webb. And so, what we really focused on was what was going to get people to come in there.
The main thing was of course we knew already we had built a better‑looking home. We tried to bring the characteristics of a custom‑type home into that market, so we did that.
And then I'd love to take a lot of credit for it, but I can't, especially because there's probably members of our team in here that we knew what we were doing as far as working on the lifestyle part. We just kind of fell into that part. It was dumb luck, and I'll take dumb luck a lot of times.
But we really focused in that area. In fact, today, we pretty well joke behind the scenes that people come in for our lifestyle and they happen to pick up a home on the way out the door.
We got very good at focusing on part, and we have communities now where we're pre‑selling in the communities, our new homeowners, or soon‑to‑be homeowners, are already doing supper clubs, are already doing dinners out.
In fact, one of our communities that we started back in 2015 has had three or four different cruises over the last four years where they have homeowner groups.
Our communities average about 180 homes per community, and they've had groups of 70 go on cruises together. And so, we think that's really cool and we focus a lot on that, and it's helped us develop the core of our amenities around things.
We've even developed a new amenity that now goes into our community. We call it The Shack because a lot of our men came to us and said, "Hey, main activity‑building is great. We like it, but we want a place we can go play poker and smoke cigars."
So we obliged, so we're excited about that. It is unisex, so it does have exhaust fans in there, so the gals can use it as craft rooms also, but they are separate amenity buildings.
We focus heavily on what does our customer want and how can we give it to them and keep it in the mix and deliver a heck of a home to them that they become very satisfied with.
Jad: Very good, John, thanks. Andy, we're going to switch over to you. Not everyone here is in a megaplex like DFW. Talk a little bit about being a builder in the b‑markets, the mid‑markets of the country, the Greensboros of the world.
And how are you able to squeeze out the volume of closings you guys are pulling off each year?
Andy: Well, first of all, we focus across about a 50‑mile geography, and I think we're willing to go into tracts of land that larger builders would not want to do.
We're willing to develop or find a developer to handle somewhere between 10 and 20 acres. We build about three to three‑and‑a‑half units per acre, so we're willing to go into a spot where we can build 35 to 50 homes.
That's a lot of pain for 35 or 50 if you've developed, building this out and getting it rezoned, but we're willing to do that. Our larger competitors would not, that's a strategy.
And the second technique is to blend products. We're willing to do patio homes with a side patio, and our average price point is about 340. And then we're also willing to do twins in the same neighborhood. We'll split them and we'll do that product at about 270.
So if you want a Toyota Camry, it's a very nice car. We'll sell that to you at 270. If you want the low‑end Lexus at 340, we can do that for you as well.
And another approach is we will team up with another builder and split a parcel. You would imagine coming into a subdivision, taking a left, go into a senior section where we're building.
The municipalities love seniors because they're not driving. They don't go to school. All they do is spend money, which is terrific. And then the right‑hand side of the neighborhood as you come in would be more single‑family.
And so, we're willing to be creative, and the issue is you've got to be spread across five or six subdivisions, across 50 miles, which is not always optimal, but it works for us.
Jad: Thanks, Andy. One of the topics, John, we'll direct this one to you when it comes to the discipline to say no. We've had a long history with Integrity.
What we would like you to talk about is a little bit about your philosophy and how that's evolved since you joined Epcon, and how getting rid of some of those time‑consuming, expensive change orders has altered your business.
John: It's a good thing I've kind of scanned the crowd. My son's not in here yet, or he'd probably answer the question better than I would because I had a hard time saying no. He'd beat up on me enough until I could actually get the word out of my mouth, no.
And so, that was a challenge that I loved, that he was smarter about thinking about how we were going to do this than I was. I was so used to being in the custom world where you always want to be able to say yes and provide. A yes to me in the custom home‑building world equated directly down to the bottom line. You charge for it somehow.
In the world we're in now, it may still equate to money down on the bottom line, but at what cost to your resources, because that's how we measure a lot of stuff now.
Our team, if you look at the number of people on our team per the number of starts and closings that we have per year, we run a pretty lean operation. However, if you do something then that affects that bubble, now your team is paying the price and having to produce to get less.
And so, we have a very good management philosophy in our company. I'm not right anymore all the time, most of the time, and therefore, everybody wants to be able to make sure they can tell me about it.
And so, if I happen to come up with an idea that's going to affect team resources, I hear about it. But what's really great about it is it helps us keep our eye on the ball, what we're trying to do, what we're trying to deliver.
With the number of starts that we're headed towards, you have to be able to differentiate yourself from that standpoint and be able to say, this is how it used to be, but this is how it has to be. And so, that's the big thing that we've been able to walk away from now is that word and being able to use that word, no.
In fact, it's kind of funny. We were all together yesterday picking up a rental car. We were going to go look at a couple of different projects out here.
Our purchasing manager was with us, and she got a call about a potential customer that wanted something ‑‑ I forget what it was. I'm thinking a guest bathroom. They wanted a pedestal sink instead of a regular cabinet sink.
She had to deliver the news to the salesperson, no, it's on the option list, and no, we're not going to do it. We're not going to treat it as a non‑standard option.
And I just sat there and got this big grin on my ears because I looked at my son, and he goes, "Isn't nice I don't have to tell you no anymore?" I said, "Yeah." So it's part of the challenge. You have to think differently.
Jad: Absolutely. Thanks, John. Andy, we'll go back to you. Profitability is tied to being efficient in all areas of your business, specifically with regard to financing and land acquisition.
How are you becoming more efficient as you grow and scale your business?
Andy: First of all, as builders, the most expensive thing we purchase is the finished lot obviously, so we're very careful there. Fortunately, in our geography, Epcon has been building since, I don't know, down in Charlotte and Raleigh and down in our area since 2005‑2006, so the brand is well‑known.
The bankers tend to be old themselves, old white men, to be candid with you, and they actually like our product a lot. So we're able to get development done fairly easily because they understand the absorption.
Our product is 80 percent pre‑sold, so the risk is off with a significant deposit. I think the key to land acquisition is to be careful and to phase your developments obviously.
We don't have the absorption to put 50 lots on the ground at a given time. We tend to want to stay just ahead of ourselves. We want to put a year or a year‑and‑a‑half of lots on the ground, and the bankers understand that.
In terms of construction processes, we have peers like John in Dallas and Pittsburgh and Columbus and Wichita, all over the country, that we can benchmark with, so we understand what our cost structure should be on our product.
Obviously, there's differences in markets for labor, but we tend to build it at 55 to 58 percent of our sales price, our sticks‑and‑bricks, which gives us a margin that works for us.
I think John has summarized correctly. We want to sit in between a production builder that says no all the time, and we don't want to be custom builder that says yes all the time, so we have to be thoughtful.
As I tell my team, our margins are higher, our price per square foot is higher, and the buyer is 70 years old. They want the house the way they want it, and we have to thread the needle and sit between the production builder and the custom builder and make it work.
Obviously, we watch cost, quality, and speed, and we really focus on quality. And we can deliver it faster. We can build a home in 120 days.
Jad: Absolutely. Thanks, Andy. John, you have anything to add on this topic?
John: Yeah, that's a big thing. One of my primary focuses is acquisition of land and putting those things together. In DFW markets, land is extremely expensive, so we work very hard upfront to make sure we can put together the recipe correctly, so that when it comes out the other end, we know then that the cake was baked correct.
And it is a recipe because cake without eggs ain't cake. So we have to make sure we have a bunch of different processes and different staff levels ‑‑ everywhere from our development team to our production team ‑‑ that everybody is involved, so that we don't make a mistake.
That was a little bit challenging also because as we continue to grow, the biggest thing that had to get out of the way was me. I was always used to being one of two or three or four people, and now you've got a whole bunch of other people. And if you don't let them think and run, you're going to work your buns off all your life.
So now, we've got a whole bunch of people that help make a lot of the decision that make it easier for us. And so, it allows me to go out and focus primarily on the things that make us really good and be able to get our product in cities and get our land priced at the way we best can.
The efficiency part starts at your smallest level, all the way down at the field guy that's out there delivering the house every day, all the way back up the chain.
If there's anything in that chain that's broken or bent, you're going to know about it then because we watch a lot. Our cycle time is one of the number one drivers of our metrics of everything that we watch, so efficiencies drive all that.
If this resonated with you, and you'd like more information on what it entails to become an Epcon Franchise Builder, please fill out our franchise information request form to get started.


Two new sourcebooks for your Umerican DCC Campaign! A combo meal of wasteland wonder and sweet salvage to enhance your apocalypse.
PDF and print-on-demand at-cost codes from DriveThruRPG.com for the Umerican Road Atlas and Umerica Unnatural, as well as all Stretch Goals!
The radioactive opportunity of a lifetime! This pledge level includes PDF and print-on-demand at-cost codes for the following books with a total retal value of $185+!!
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In February 1806, the late Mr. Pitt's banker, Mr. Thomas Coutts, drew up a statement of the sums Mr. Pitt still owed to him. Pitt had died heavily in debt on 23 January 1806, and one of his creditors was Mr. Coutts. Pitt's two chosen executors, his brother John, the 2nd Earl of Chatham, and the Bishop of Lincoln, exchanged some correspondence with Coutts on the matter of Pitt's outstanding debts.
Taken in all, the amount to Coutts added up to nearly £15,000. Sadly, Pitt was in debt for the entirety of his adult life, beginning in the early 1780s. In many ways, the example left by his father's relationship with money did Pitt more harm than good. The Bishop of Lincoln, later known as the Bishop of Winchester, was still sorting out Pitt's unresolved financial affairs 15 years after Pitt's passing.
More details regarding the lengthy ensuing correspondence between Chatham, Coutts, and the Bishop of Lincoln will be discussed in a future post.
Pitt's financial affairs (February 1806) U1590/S5/C42. Pitt MSS: The Kent History and Library Centre.


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/ News/Blog / News Media Archive / CARE Names Los Angeles Fiber Co. Recycler of the Year
Contact: Robert Peoples, Carpet America Recovery Effort (706) 428-2115
Ron Greitzer accepts the CARE Recycler of the Year award from Bob Peoples of Solutia.
SANDESTIN, Fla. (April 23, 2003) – L.A. Fiber Co., the largest recycler of post-consumer carpet in North America, was honored today at the First Annual Carpet America Recovery Effort (CARE) meeting as the organization's Recycler of the Year.
Los Angeles Fiber Co. accepts post consumer carpet and recycles it into synthetic carpet cushion and other thermoplastic products. Currently, L.A. Fiber is recycling carpet from four different states and recycles over seven million pounds of carpet a month. The company was established in 1983 by Stan and Ron Greitzer and quickly became the largest recycler of carpet and textile materials on the West Coast. In order to put L.A. Fiber achievements into perspective, consider that if the Pasadena Rose Bowl was a landfill, L.A. Fiber diverts enough material annually to fill it three times. The company's vision is "Saving our planet, one square yard at a time."
"It is truly an honor and a pleasure to recognize L.A. Fiber for their distinguished work and effort in the arena of recycling post-consumer carpet. It is just the sort of innovative thinking and concept which L.A. Fiber brings to the table that will ultimately play a large role in helping CARE forge ahead in meeting the goal of 40 percent landfill diversion of post-consumer carpet by 2012," said Frank Hurd, CARE's chairman of the board, in making the announcement.
"(L.A. Fiber president) Ron Greitzer and his entire company are to be commended for their outstanding work. L.A. Fiber is exactly the prototypical model of what we envision when we talk about diverting carpet from landfills by fostering market-based solutions for recovering value from discarded carpet. I can't think of a more deserving honoree to accept our first annual Recycler of the Year award," Mr. Hurd said.
Ron Greitzer
Mr. Greitzer was moved by the honor and the standing ovation he received upon being named the winner.
"It is a great honor to be recognized by our peers as the first recipient of this award. Our goal is to continue to strive to make a difference. We need the retailer and the consumers to join us in our efforts to find homes for the recycled products made from post consumer carpet. CARE's goal of 40 percent diversion will be reached if all of us continue to work together," Mr. Greitzer said.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


The PowerLounge is the central meeting point of the biennale. During the opening weeks this will be the heart of the biennale. During the opening fortnight, this is the place where discussion will be waged on the biennale's theme, POWER, through debates, lectures, presentations and conferences.
During the day in the PowerLounge, visitors can consult the catalogue at their leisure or watch video projections. At least as long as no other biennale events are taking place, such as the two-day international conference Visionary Power, or the presentation and award ceremony that concludes the Master Class, or the debate Noord versus Zuid in één Randstad (North vs. South within One Randstad), part of the New Dutch City gathering, where the future plans for the Noord- en Zuidvleugels (north and south sections) of the Randstad, the urban conglomeration in the west of the Netherlands, will also be presented.
In addition, partners of the biennale such as the Royal Institute of Dutch Architects (BNA), Kristal (project developer for, as well as with, six housing corporations in the Randstad) and Atelier Zuidvleugel are also organizing various activities in the PowerLounge.
Every weekday from 5:30 pm (except Monday) the PowerLounge is the location for a PowerTalk: a lecture, debate or round-table discussion about POWER and the future of the city.
The PowerTalks bring together various players who make the city what it is: from architects, urban designers and planners to project developers, researchers and administrators. They will debate the current urban agenda and the challenges for architecture and urban design: from the contemporary city losing its colour to the strength of local power, and from the role of residents in the global city to the design dilemmas inherent in the future plans for the Randstad.
See the agenda for a complete overview of the public events held in the PowerLounge. This agenda also lists lectures and debates organized by the Netherlands Architecture Institute during the biennale, including those marking the exhibition A Better World – Another Power presented at the NAI.


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NHL Trade Rumors: Evgeni Nabokov to Blackhawks
Evgeni Nabokov trade rumors are running rampant for the 2012 NHL season. The New York Islanders are out of the playoff picture in the East and are shopping goaltender Nabokov. The 36 year old from Kasakhstan had a solid career for over a decade with the San Jose Sharks. Last season he went to play in the KHL and when he came back to play in the NHL, he was taken off waivers by the New York Islanders.
Nabokov has made it clear he wants to be traded to a Stanley Cup contender like the Detroit Red Wings or Chicago Blackhawks. The Blackhawks are struggling in goal and are going to make an offer for Nabby's services that come at a cheap cap hit of $570 000 per year. Evgeni Nabokov is having a career year save percentage wise at .927 with the New York Islanders.
By: NHL Insider on Sunday, February 12, 2012


text:
Q: Combining two switch cases in reasonML | (true, Select(true)) => true
| (false, Select(false)) => false

How can I combine these two in a switch statement with generic type?

A: Unfortunately the patterns that you match against in a switch statement have to be 'linear' (ie, the variants inside the patterns should only appear once):
See https://caml.inria.fr/pub/docs/oreilly-book/html/book-ora016.html

A pattern must necessarily be linear, that is, no given variable can occur more than once inside the pattern being matched. Thus, we might have hoped to be able to write:
# let equal c = match c with
    (x,x) -> true
  | (x,y) -> false;; Characters 35-36: This variable is bound several times in this matching

But this would have required the compiler to know how to carry out
equality tests. Yet this immediately raises numerous problems. If we
accept physical equality between values, we get a system which is too
weak, incapable of recognizing the equality between two occurrences of
the list [1; 2], for example. If we decide to use structural equality,
we run the risk of having to traverse, ad infinitum, circular
structures.

Note that ReasonML is just an alternative syntax for OCaml, so the above also holds for Reason. match is just the OCaml version of switch.

A: It is possible to combine the two cases generically using a when guard:
let f = (a, b) =>
  switch (a, b) {
  | (a, Select(b)) when a == b => a
  };

However, note that this isn't exhaustive, and you haven't specified what should be returned in the case that a != b. To avoid the non-exhaustiveness warning, and crash at runtime, you need to add another case to cover that.

A: Yeah this is doable:
// using switch
let theSolution = x => switch(x) {
  | (_, Select(inside)) => inside
};

// using `fun`
let theSolution = x => x |> fun | (_, Select(inside)) => inside;

// or for a super short solution:
let theSolution = fun | (_, Select(inside)) => inside;

For example:
type select = | Select(bool);

let a = (true, Select(true));
let b = (true, Select(false));
let c = (false, Select(true));
let d = (false, Select(false));

let theSolution = x => x |> fun | (_, Select(inside)) => inside;

Js.log2("A is", theSolution(a));
Js.log2("B is", theSolution(b));
Js.log2("C is", theSolution(c));
Js.log2("D is", theSolution(d));

Will result in:
"A is" true
"B is" false
"C is" true
"D is" false

Or if you want to compare the booleans, you can do either of:
let theSolution = fun | (a, Select(b)) => a && b;
let theSolution = fun | (a, Select(b)) => a == b;

See this example in the online repl

A: Following can be a solution for your problem. The operation a&&b depends on what logic you want the block to follow. I took a reasonable assumption that you wanted to perform AND operation. If you provide other possible conditions then this can be refined.
let getSelectionResponse = x => switch(x){ | (a, Select(b)) => a&&b};

Tried it here

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


On the off chance that a home doesn't get an be offering in a month, the retailers will be set up to acknowledge a discounted cost. A mobile home can be a remarkable way to deal with meet your accommodation demands at a truly low introductory cost. Thus, view the MLS postings and see whether it's conceivable to run over a first rate home.


GRAPEVINE, TEXAS (September 21, 2017) – Celebrating Grapevine's artistic offerings, the member galleries of the Grapevine Art Dealers Association (GADA) will host A Taste of Art on October 7, 2017 from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. The event takes place at each of the five GADA galleries located in Historic Downtown Grapevine.
A Taste of Art showcases the fine arts in Grapevine by offering a delightful evening of high quality art for collectors and art lovers to enjoy. Take a walk along the vibrant Historic Main Street for an evening of fine art paired with exciting signature food and wine tastings set among paintings, sculpture, artists and glass blowing. There are a limited number of tickets available at http://grapevineartdealers.com. Ticket holders may start their tour at any gallery.
For more information, visit the www.grapevineartdealers.com or contact any of the GADA member galleries. For more information about Grapevine, please contact the Grapevine Convention & Visitors Bureau at 800-457-6338 or 817-410-3185 or visit www.GrapevineTexasUSA.com.


brooke: Cambria Madison: your birth story.
Cambria Madison: your birth story.
Giving birth has taught me an important lesson about parenthood. As parents, we do what we can to make the best decisions for our family, our children, and ourselves, but we can't control how our story actually plays out. Everett's birth was my first parenting lesson in letting go and embracing what we are given, and that has been something I have returned to throughout parenthood.
This birth story begins with the birth of our firstborn, Everett. With Everett, we had decided that we wanted to have an unmedicated hospital birth, and so we did everything we could to make that happen. We took a birth class, I attended prenatal yoga, we hired a doula, I read childbirth books, and we typed out a birth plan. Then, at our 41 week doctor's appointment, we found out Everett was breech. We scheduled an external version for the next day to try to turn him, and it didn't work, so I went on to have a cesarean birth that afternoon, June 10.
Going into our second birth, I had a peace about our journey to bring our baby into the world, not knowing what would happen along the way. I went into preparing for birth the second time with completely different expectations than the first time. All I cared about was a healthy baby, and the rest of the details would work themselves out. I had a complete peace about what my birth experience could be like, because after the first time going nothing like we had planned, I realized that the most important part of birth is the baby being born, and we can't often control how that story unfolds.
Still, we knew that we would have some decisions to make for our second birth. Our first decision: Would we try to have a VBAC (vaginal birth after cesarean) or just have another cesarean birth? Through research and talking to our doctor, we decided to try for a VBAC for two main reasons: 1) I wanted to be able to have immediate skin to skin with my baby when he/ she was born, which was not something I got to do with Everett because of the cesarean birth. 2) I wanted to be able to pick up Everett after our second baby was born, which is not something I would be able to do if I had another cesarean.
Of course, even with that simple birth plan, obstacles arose, and the journey to having our second baby ended up requiring a series of further decisions on our part. At 33 weeks along, we found out that we had another breech baby. Another decision: Would we try to have another external version to try to turn the baby (this time at 37 weeks along) or just have a scheduled cesarean? We had a few weeks to decide and see if the baby would turn by his/herself. At 36 weeks, we still had a breech baby, so we decided to schedule a version for the following week at 37 weeks. We checked into the hospital, I was hooked up to the monitors, and we waited for our doctor to come. In my mind, I thought that the version wouldn't work but decided to try it anyway. Our doctor predicted an 80% chance of success. The procedure took about five minutes, and the baby turned! It was uncomfortable, but not extremely painful like the version we tried with Everett. After the version, I was having contractions every 3 minutes, so they checked my cervix to make sure I wasn't going into labor, and I was 1 cm dilated. They monitored me for an hour, discharged me, and then we went for a walk on the beach.
Each week after the version, I was checked to make sure the baby was still head down. At 38 weeks, I was 3 cm dilated and 50% effaced. At 39 weeks, I was 3.5 cm dilated and 75% effaced. At 40 weeks, I was 4 cm dilated and 80% effaced. At 40 weeks and 4 days, I was 4cm dilated and 80% effaced. At my post due date appointment, we knew that we would have to talk to my doctor about being overdue and what our options were. Originally, he said that we couldn't be induced for a VBAC, because the chance of uterine rupture doubles with an induction, due to the contractions being more intense. However, he said that since I had been dilated for so long already, he thought that I would actually be a good candidate for an induction if I wanted to try it. Our next decision: If I didn't go into labor, would we want to try for an induction and a VBAC or would we want to just schedule a cesarean? We decided to go for the induction and a VBAC, since we had tried so hard at that point to have a VBAC. Our next decision: When would we have our baby if I didn't go into labor on my own? To answer this question, we asked our doctor what he felt comfortable with. We told him that we wanted to wait as long as we could to give my body a chance to go into labor on its own. He said that considering I would be having an induction and a VBAC, he felt comfortable with me delivering at 11 days past my due date. Throughout our entire pregnancy, we felt extremely supported by our doctor, and that is something I am really grateful for. We went with my doctor's recommendation. If I didn't go into labor, I would deliver on October 18, 11 days past my due date. Matt and I both felt at peace with that decision.
Every day, we waited to go into labor, until I finally just accepted the fact that my baby would be born on October 18th. We used our final days to go out to breakfast, do special activities with Everett, hang out with family. It is really challenging to be pregnant past your due date, both physically and mentally, but we made the best of it.
On the night of October 17th, my parents came over, we had dinner together, and then Matt and I kissed and hugged Everett good-bye and drove to the hospital to check in.
It was surreal checking in, waiting in the waiting room, and then being taken to a room, knowing that we would be meeting our baby soon. By 8:30 pm, I had been hooked up to the monitors, and I was having regular contractions that I couldn't feel. The nurse began the induction, and told me that since I was already 4 cm dilated, had been dilated and effaced for weeks, and was already having regular contractions, she thought it wouldn't take too long. With an induction, the nurse comes and gives you pitocin every half hour, checks your blood pressure, your contractions, and the baby's heart rate. That meant no sleeping for me. Matt got a few hours of sleep throughout the night. At about 4:00 am, I began to feel contractions and they were somewhat painful. My plan was to wait as long as possible to have an epidural, but I definitely knew I wanted one, especially because contractions with an induction are supposed to be more intense and painful. The contractions got really painful pretty quickly. At about 4:30 am, the nurse checked me and I was only 4.5 cm dilated. After that, the contractions were extremely painful. I was breathing and moaning loudly through them. I thought that maybe I would want to get up, change positions, sit on a birth ball, have Matt massage me, or listen to a playlist of music. But, all I wanted was to lay on my side, listen to Bon Iver, and keep my eyes closed. I was holding onto the bed railing, and Matt was helping me breathe.
By about 7:00 am, the contractions were overwhelmingly painful. I was 7cm dilated, and I requested the epidural. The epidural itself didn't hurt at all, but it was so challenging to sit up on the bed and stay still for the epidural to go in. I was face to face with the nurse squeezing her hands. While I was sitting up, my water broke. After the epidural, my contractions were still painful yet a little less intense. I was still laying on my side with my eyes closed breathing and moaning through them. The nurse shift change happened at 7:00 am, right after I got the epidural, and as my new nurse came in, she said, "this woman is ready to give birth; call the doctor." She got a hold of my doctor, who wanted to deliver our baby. He was on his way. Once my doctor arrived, he checked me, and I was indeed ready to give birth. I had gone from 7 cm dilated to 10 cm quickly, which made sense with how overwhelmingly painful my contractions had gotten. My doctor got ready while the nurses helped me get ready to push. Some people have said that pushing is a relief after strong contractions, but I found pushing to be an intense and painful aspect of birth as well. I am not sure if my epidural didn't work properly or what happened, but I still felt my contractions and the pain that came with pushing. The nurses had me pushing and breathing with each contraction and wheeled in a mirror to let me see the baby's head, which was amazing. Once my doctor came back in the room, things became more intense. My contractions began happening one on top of the other with no rest time in between, so I was pushing, taking a breath, pushing, taking a breath, pushing, taking a breath… There were no breaks in between contractions. This part was painful and so challenging. I was using all the strength I could find within me. Finally, at one point, my doctor looked me in the eyes and said, "Brooke, your baby's heart rate is dropping. We need to get this baby out now. I need you to push as hard as you can to get this baby out right now." Even though I was in pain, and I was already pushing as hard as I could, somehow from deep within, I found more strength and pushed harder. At some point, the baby came out. The doctor held her up and said, "It's a girl!" And she was placed immediately on my chest. That moment, when giving birth was finally over, I got a first look at my baby, we found out she was a girl, and then she was placed immediately on my chest- that was one of the best moments of my life. I was crying tears of joy and was overcome with emotion. We got to stay like that for an hour before they took her to weigh her and measure her. She was born on 10/18 at 8:38 am and weighed 8 pounds, 8 ounces.
Right after she was born, while I held her, the doctor sewed me up, which was also extremely painful. I have heard some women say that childbirth is like running a marathon, but honestly, childbirth for me was about 1,000 times more painful than running a marathon. However, all the pain and energy put into it is so worth it for the end result of meeting and holding your baby for the first time. And the journey to get to the point where they place the baby in your arms makes that moment all the more beautiful.
I am beyond grateful that I was able to have the birth experience I had. I am really glad that I had a VBAC, and I feel very lucky that it all worked out. There are so many moments from that morning that are etched into my mind, so clear and vivid, and then there are other moments that are foggy and blurry when the pain took over. The birth of our baby girl didn't go according to our plan (with needing to have an induction), but it was a beautiful journey to bring our little GIRL into the world. I couldn't be more grateful.
I am proud of myself and my body for both of my birth experiences, even though they were totally different for each of my children. We as women are strong and so are our bodies, for creating and carrying a child, and doing what it takes to bring that baby into the world. Both experiences were life changing and seeing each of my babies for the first time after they were born will always be two of the best moments of my life. It brings me to tears still just thinking about it.
I think that every woman should make a decision for herself about birth, because it is so personal, but if someone asked me my opinion, I would highly recommend having a VBAC over a repeat cesarean. The recovery after a VBAC has been night and day compared to the cesarean. We only stayed in the hospital for one night after Cambria's birth compared to Everett's where we stayed four nights. I was crying in pain the day after my cesarean, and with the VBAC I was home with my family and could walk! The best things about having a VBAC for me were being able to hold my new baby skin to skin right after her birth, getting to experience the process of birth outside of a surgical setting (although unfortunately still with a major intervention being induced), being able to walk and eat and shower the same day after giving birth, and being able to cuddle and pick up my toddler.
If I have another child, I would try for a VBAC again, and although my epidural didn't really work, I would do the same thing: wait as long as I could to have an epidural and then have one.


The ESA (Employment and Support Allowance) is a welfare association in the UK designed to help financially those people who are unable to find an employment due to disability or long-term illness.
If you want to make a claim from ESA, you will need a certificate to prove that you are unfit for work. You can then get either contribution based ESA funds if you've paid enough contributions to National Insurance or income based ESA funds if you are a zero or low-income earner.
The free ESA customer service number is 0800 055 6688. Call this number for general enquiries including new or existing benefit claims or to otherwise apply to the ESA program.
There is also the ESA payments phone number 0800 023 4888, that helps people with speech or hearing disabilities successfully reach the ESA customer service support. This number offerstext for all similar enquiries or to make a claim or payment.
The third alternate line is for people who wish to coordinate with customer care in Welsh. The ESA Welsh number 0800 012 1888 serves that purpose. If that number is busy, the Welsh phone number for after hours is 0800 678 3696.
For Northern Ireland customers, contact numbers can be found on their government-run website or alternatively call 0800 085 6318 to make new claims or for general enquirIes.
For all other enquirIes, contact ESA customer service via text messaging through the number 0800 328 3419. Note, however, that this number is reserved for people with speech or hearing impairments.
Vodafone customers can also reach the ESA customer care team through the number 0800 678 3682, which is the DWP (Department for Works and Pension) helpline.
ESA claims telephone numbers are also given to discuss any of the claim details or if you need to intimate the department about any changes in your work or income. Like if you are under the coverage of job seeker allowance, income support or incapacity benefit, you can contact the service team at ESA at the service support number 0345 608 8545.
You can be in touch with an ESA customer service agent using simple text messaging. This special contact number is 0300 123 3012 .
For queries regarding already existing ESA maternity allowance claims, you can call the number 0345 608 8610. For hearing impaired please use the text support phone 0345 608 8553.
For Welsh speaking customers, the ESA Maternity telephone number 0345 608 8674 is also free to call.
It can usually be found on your payslip, P60 or tax return.
You can visit the government website, and fill out the necessary forms.
The insurance office is also accessible over the phone through the following ESA phone number 0300 200 3502, or 0300 200 3519 from 8.30am to 5 pm on weekdays.
Complaints regarding Jobcentre plus can also be forwarded to the ESA complaints direct line at 0345 604 3719. You can also contact them through the number 0345 608 8551, which is reserved for texting only.
If have difficulties in downloading or printing the form or your enquiry is a sensitive and/or urgent matter, you should phone them on their direct ESA jobcentre number 0345 604 3349. Non-urgent enquiries can be forwarded to the email and will take up to 10 business days for processing and reply.
To call regarding the availability of a job, details regarding an advertised employment, open positions and to check the calling rates on any of the ESA numbers, you should visit the online portal for relevant details and instructions.
ESA claim forms can also be acquired online. They are available for download. The form is required to be filed with all the relevant details and sent to the Job Centre Plus office.
The ESA helpline number for Minicom is 0345 604 0523. Your message will be forwarded to the online support team and responded to as promptly as possible. Please note, however, that this number is exclusively for texting regarding technical difficulties.
Complaints regarding the pension service offered by ESA can be forwarded to the same physical address. Otherwise, through the call on the phone number you can call the ESA Benefits and Pension number 0345 606 0265.
If you prefer not to be put on hold as they deal with other customers, you can locate the nearest pension service centre through their website.
If still in doubt or are still confused, you can visit the ESA website for a detailed explanation on how the complaint procedure is handled.
The complaints team tries to respond and rectify all complaints as soon as possible, but if you still aren't satisfied with the results, you can approach an Independent Case Examiner to investigate the matter by calling 0345 606 0777.
If you are outside the UK and still wish to contact the support team, you can still reach them through the ESA abroad number +44 151 221 6500.
The last person you can finally contact if you are still displeased with the Independent Examiner's final response and findings is to reach out to the Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman, available online through the website link.
They make final decisions on complaints that have not been resolved by the NHS in England and UK government departments and any other public organisations. The service is readily available to the general public and has no service charges.
For any enquiries regarding employment opportunities and support allowance, you can reach ESA by mail at the address James House, 2 – 4 Cromac Avenue, Belfast, BT7 2JA.
Alternatively, you could write to the ESA at their head office address Mail Opening Unit, PO Box 42, Limavady, BT49 4AN for new claimants. The same address can also be used if you want to make a claim.
Enquiries regarding Jobcentre services can be looked up and addressed toward the website. You will be contacted back in response to your queries. The website deals with new benefits and claims, existing benefits or to cancel or change an appointment.
Jobcentre physical addresses are available through the online search portal, depending on your proximity to the closest help centre.
Department for Work and Pensions, PO Box 50101, London, SW1P 2WU.
You can also file your complaint to the nearest Jobcentre in your area. You can conveniently find one on their website.
The ESA are relatively quick to respond to queries through their social media pages, but should not be used for sensitive or urgent requests and queries.


text:
Humans surrendered to a robot for the first time in 1991
For April Fools' Day, this World War II veteran brought an Alaska volcano to life
By Coffee Or Die
Oliver J. "Porky" Bickar rolled out of bed on April Fools' Day, 1974, looked out his window to a white-topped mountain outside Sitka, Alaska, and told his wife, Patty, "I…
Check out video of volcanic lightning caused by erupting volcano
Video footage captures the moment a rare occurrence called "volcanic lighting" occurred in the Philippines.
As can be seen in the video below, volcanic smoke and ash are erupting from the volcano as lightning strikes the sky.
The smo…
Army National Guard helping in Hawaii as volcano erupts
By United States Army
Joint Task Force 5-0 in Hawaii is helping authorities handle evacuations, provide security, and monitor air quality as Mount Kilauea spews out clouds of toxic gas and lava destroys homes in its path.
About 2,000 residents have been forced…
Hawaii's big island volcano eruption can be seen from space
The ongoing volcanic eruptions from Hawaii have been so massive that astronauts can see them from space — and the pictures are incredible.
Ricky Arnold and AJ Feustel, US astronauts stationed on to the International Space Station,


text:
, abreviado como CCS, conhecido no Brasil como Sakura Card Captors, e em Portugal como Sakura, a Caçadora de Cartas ou apenas Sakura, é uma série de mangá do gênero mahō shōjo criada pelo grupo CLAMP e publicada na revista Nakayoshi, com 12 volumes, de 1996 a 2000. Foi adaptado a uma série de anime pelo estúdio Madhouse, somando 70 episódios (divididos por três temporadas), 2 filmes e 4 especiais (OVA).

No Brasil foi exibido no canal a cabo Cartoon Network em 2000, na TV Globo no programa "TV Globinho" 2001 e no canal a cabo Boomerang em 2006. A série de mangá foi publicada pela JBC com 24 volumes no formato meio-tankobon e 2001, sendo o primeiro mangá do Brasil a ser vendido numa banca, que por sua vez deu impulsos a outros mangás, por essa a ocasião em 2012 a JBC fez uma edição especial com páginas coloridas em 12 volumes assim como o original japonês.Em 7 de dezembro de 2020, volta a TV pelo canal Loading.

Em Portugal, o anime foi transmitido pela RTP 1, entre 15 de setembro de 2001 e 11 de fevereiro de 2003, na RTP2, em 2002, no Canal Panda entre janeiro de 2004 a janeiro de 2007 e em 2010 no Panda Biggs.

Na América do Norte (menos México e Quebec (Canadá)), na Austrália, Nova Zelândia, Reino Unido e Países Baixos, a série foi exibida sob o nome de Cardcaptors, e sofreu uma americanização, feita pela empresa canadense Nelvana, que fez várias modificações no enredo, nomes dos personagens e trilha sonora. Nos outros países falantes de língua inglesa, a série foi exibida na íntegra, sem nenhum corte ou restrição.

Cardcaptor Sakura conta a história de Sakura Kinomoto, uma garota de 10 anos que liberta acidentalmente um conjunto de cartas mágicas chamadas Cartas Clow. Seu trabalho então, é reunir todas elas antes de essas causarem transtornos à cidade onde ela vive.

Em 2016, a série de mangá comemorou 20 anos e para a inesperada surpresa de todos, o grupo CLAMP lançou uma continuação de Cardcaptor Sakura, chamado de "Clear Card Hen", com capítulos sendo lançados na revista Nakayoshi. A série foi lançada em anime em janeiro de 2018, com a primeira temporada adaptando os 5 primeiros volumes do mangá.

Enredo
Sakura Kinomoto é uma garota de 10 anos, estudante da fictícia cidade japonesa de Tomoeda, que por acidente abre um livro misterioso, chamado Livro Clow. Do livro saem 52 cartas mágicas levadas por uma tempestade de vento causada pela magia da carta Vento, que foi libertada quando Sakura leu o seu nome. Kerberos, o guardião das cartas (uma criatura muito parecida com um animal de pelúcia bem pequeno), surge do livro e conta a Sakura que as cartas foram espalhadas por toda Tomoeda e é seu dever capturá-las de novo, tornando-a uma cardcaptor (caça-cartas em português).

As cartas provocam fenômenos estranhos ao redor de Sakura, que emprega os poderes das cartas já capturadas em seu báculo mágico para dominá-las e juntá-las à sua coleção. Ela conta com a ajuda de sua amiga Tomoyo, e mais tarde de outros personagens como Syaoran Li, um cardcaptor rival que mais tarde se torna seu aliado, e Yue, outro guardião das cartas.

No decorrer da trama, além das histórias misteriosas que envolvem as cartas, também se fazem presentes cenas que mostram o crescente romance entre Sakura e Syaoran, intercalados com as cenas de ação.

Na segunda metade da história surgem novos personagens, como Eriol Hiiragizawa, e Sakura passa a transformar as cartas Clow em suas próprias cartas: as Cartas Sakura.

Na terceira parte da história as cartas Sakura misteriosamente ficam transparentes, sem nenhum sinal de vida, e de repente um novo evento acontece, onde cartas vindas do desconhecido, oferecem perigo para Sakura e para a população. Novos personagens novos aparecem, Syaoran volta da sua viagem e Sakura recebe um novo báculo.

Cardcaptors
A empresa canadense Nelvana (que posteriormente trabalharia com as versões ocidentais de Medabots e Beyblade), adaptou toda a série, mudando sua cronologia, enredo, trilha sonora, e fez vários cortes e censuras no que é considerado para a cultura americana, "impróprio" ao público infantil. A série, resumida a 39 episódios, foi rebatizada de Cardcaptors, e seu foco principal seria no personagem Syaoran, visto que à empresa queria atingir o público masculino, mas ela foi exibida assim somente nos EUA, em junho de 2000 pela Kids' WB e em junho de 2001 no Cartoon Network; no Reino Unido em 2001 na CiTV; na Austrália e Nova Zelândia em 2004 no Cartoon Network e Channel 3; e nos Países Baixos em janeiro de 2004 na Yorkiddin (somente 57 episódios).

Cartas

 Cartas Clow: As cartas Clow são objetos mágicos, mas de certa forma também seres vivos, com sentimentos e personalidades diferentes, criados por um poderoso feiticeiro conhecido como Mago Clow (ou Clow Reed), com uma mistura de magia ocidental e oriental. São capazes de realizar efeitos fantásticos em quantidade ilimitada, mas cada carta está relacionada a um único poder ou força. Elas também podem se manifestar em uma forma semi-humana (ou, em algumas cartas, de um animal ou objeto), que de certa forma reflete sua personalidade. Para conter o poder dessas cartas após a sua "morte", o Mago Clow confinou-as em um livro e apresentou às duas entidades que criou (Kerberos e Yue) a missão de protegê-las. Por muitos anos, as cartas teriam permanecido em descanso, até ser aberto por Sakura, com a consequente libertação das cartas. No total, há 20 cartas clow no mangá e 52 no anime, não incluindo a carta O Nada do 2° filme. Existem cartas que não se vê sendo capturadas no anime, como A Flecha (capturada no 1º filme da série), A Através, As Bolhas, A Balança, A Onda.
 Cartas Sakura: São cartas clow transformadas pelo poder mágico de Sakura. A carta O Nada do segundo filme da franquia se torna a carta A Esperança quando é mesclada com a carta Sem-nome feita pela própria Sakura antes de ver o Syaoran pela última vez no aeroporto no episódio 70 do animê, totalizando 53 cartas Sakura. Atualmente essas cartas se tornaram transparentes e sem nenhum tipo de poder.
Clear Cards: São cartas totalmente novas vindas do desconhecido, que aparencem apos o sumiço das cartas Sakura, na nova serie de manga e anime Cardcaptor Sakura: Clear Card-hen, elas têm uma certa semelhança com as cartas anteriores, mas diferente das outras, elas não possuem dono e nem livro-guardião. Sakura as captura com o báculo dos sonhos, o novo báculo no qual Sakura recebe por um sonho.

Báculos

 Báculo Selador: É o primeiro báculo da Sakura dado por Kero e também é a chave para abrir o Livro Clow, o livro-guardião que guarda as cartas clow.
 Báculo Estelar: É o segundo báculo, que a própria Sakura cria com a sua magia e é a chave do Livro Sakura.
 Báculo dos Sonhos: É o terceiro báculo que a Sakura recebe durante a nova fase. Ela recebe misteriosamente quando está dormindo, serve para capturar as cartas límpidas, cartas que vêm do desconhecido. Esse báculo também tem a forma de uma chave, mas não há um livro-guardião (ainda).

Locais

Tomoeda
Tomoeda é uma cidade fictícia que fica perto de Tóquio, onde a grande maioria da trama do animê ocorre.

 Loja Twin Bells: Lojas de produtos sortidos e também uma papelaria. Ela é gerida pela Senhorita Maki.
 Aquário da Cidade: Um imenso aquário com espaço para restaurante.
 Parque Pinguim: Um parque infantil onde tem um grande pinguim como escorregador.
 Escola Primaria Tomoeda: É a escola onde Sakura estuda e onde muitos eventos da história ocorrem.

Alunos: Sakura Kinomoto, Tomoyo Daidouji, Chiharu Mihara, Rika Sasaki, Takashi Yamazaki, Naoko Yanagisawa, Shaoran Li, Meiling Li, Eriol Hiiragizawa;
Professores: Yoshiyuki Terada, Kaho Mizuki, Makiko Midori,Yukie Kimura, Shouko Tsujitani.

Sociedade da Magia
Sociedade inglesa revelada por Eriol onde magos se socializam. É também onde o Yuna D. Kaito frequentava antes de furtar o objeto tabu da sociedade da magia.

 Integrantes ou ex-integrantes: Yuna D. Kaito, Eriol Hiiragizawa, Clow Reed.

Personagens
  - Sakura é a personagem principal da série, uma bela jovem com dez anos no início da história e vive numa cidade com o nome de Tomoeda no Japão, com o seu pai e irmão. O seu objetivo é capturar todas as Cartas Clow que contêm grande poder. Tem uma queda por Yukito, melhor amigo de seu irmão, mas depois se apaixona por Li Syaoran.
  - O guardião do lacre das Cartas Clow, apelidado carinhosamente de Kero. Ele ajuda Sakura a capturar as cartas e a ensina sobre seu funcionamento. Gosta muito de doces e de jogar videogame. Ele geralmente se passa por um bichinho de pelúcia para despistar os amigos de Sakura de seu segredo (principalmente o seu desconfiado irmão, Toya) e vive tirando uma com a cara de Syaoran. No final da segunda temporada, após a carta Fogo (The Fire) e Terra (The Earth) serem recuperadas, ele volta à sua forma original, parecida com um leão alado. Seu poder provém do Sol, e suas cartas regentes principais são Fogo, Luz e Terra.
  - Um cardcaptor rival de Sakura, e descendente do criador das cartas, Clow Reed. Syaoran veio de Hong Kong em busca das Cartas Clow, mas deparou-se com Sakura, que já havia capturado algumas delas. Ele passa a estudar na mesma escola de Sakura e Tomoyo e a ajudá-las na captura das cartas. No decorrer da história, Syaoran se apaixona por Sakura pouco a pouco até acabar se declarando. Ele luta Kung Fu e muitas outras artes marciais chinesas, e se utiliza não só das Cartas Clow, como também da magia do Feng Shui, usando sua espada e amuletos. Na versão brasileira do anime, o nome dele ficou Shoran, um erro de dublagem da BKS.
  - e a melhor amiga de Sakura, que gosta muito de filma-lá e de vesti-la com roupas diferentes a cada aventura. Gosta de cantar e tem uma voz muito bonita. Seus sentimentos por Sakura são às vezes exagerados, tornando a série um ícone do gênero. Tomoyo mantém uma espécie de amor platônico por Sakura. Tomoyo, que é uma garota bem precoce, diz a Sakura que explicará o que sente quando esta estiver mais adulta.
  - O irmão mais velho de Sakura. Ele aparece constantemente irritando sua irmãzinha e fazendo bicos em diferentes trabalhos a cada episódio. No mangá, é sugerido que Toya tenha um sentimento de amor por seu amigo Yukito. Há indícios de que Toya teve algum relacionamento com a professora Mizuki. Toya também tem alguns poderes paranormais, e consegue ver fantasmas. É muito ciumento com Sakura, odiando Syaoran desde a primeira vez que o vê, talvez pressentindo algum sentimento ainda escondido; ele e Kero adoram chamá-lo de moleque.
  - Amigo de Toya. É por quem Sakura nutre uma paixão. Yukito está quase sempre comendo, apesar de ser magro. Estuda com Toya e é um grande jogador de basquete. Também possui um sentimento muito grande de amor por Toya. No final da série, revela-se que ele seria um alter-ego de Yue, um guardião cujo dever é testar os cardcaptors tão logo eles reúnam todas as Cartas para ver se eles estão aptos a serem donos delas em seu "Juízo Final". Yue tem como astro de poder a Lua, e suas cartas regentes principais são Trevas, Vento e Água.
  - Personagem exclusiva do anime, é prima e noiva de Syaoran. Ela é uma ótima lutadora de artes marciais. Morre de ciúmes de Sakura porque teme perder o seu "namorado", mas isso é resolvido mais à frente. Apesar de muitos a odiarem ela se mostra muito bondosa e compreensiva com Sakura e principalmente Syaoran.
  - Uma reencarnação do Mago Clow, criador das Cartas Clow. Ele surge na segunda metade da história (a terceira temporada do anime e segunda do mangá) para ajudar Sakura a converter as Cartas Clow em Cartas Sakura - um reflexo do poder mágico dela - para que as Cartas não "morram".  Eriol ama Sakura, e quer que ela seja muito feliz. Syaoran sente ciúmes quanto o vê com Sakura.
  - É um dos guardiões de Eriol. Geralmente mantém a forma de um tipo de gatinho preto. Porém, sua verdadeira aparência é de uma espécie de pantera negra com asas de borboleta. Enquanto Kero adora videogames, o passatempo preferido de Spinel é ler livros.
  - alter-ego de Nakuru Akizuki. É colega de escola de Toya. Na verdade é um garoto e só usa o uniforme feminino por ele ser, segundo ela, mais bonito que o masculino. Segundo suas palavras no episódio 50: "Eu não sou um ser humano. O sexo é o que menos importa" Ruby Moon deixa claro que para ele não faz qualquer diferença se assumisse uma identidade feminina, ou masculina.
  - É o pai de Sakura e Toya. Casou-se bem cedo com Nadeshiko. Nessa época, ele era um professor novato e ela tinha apenas 16 anos. Depois de 11 anos de casamento sua amada esposa acabou adoecendo e morreu. Fujitaka é um homem simpático que, embora sempre esteja ocupado com suas aulas e palestras, vive preocupado com os filhos. Praticamente não tem defeitos. Ele também sabe cozinhar.
  - É a mãe de Sakura e Toya, que foi casada com Fujitaka. Nadeshiko aparece apenas em memória e espírito na série, pois ela morreu quando tinha 27 anos, e Sakura tinha apenas três.
  - É a mãe de Tomoyo Daidouji e prima de Nadeshiko. É a presidente de uma grande empresa da família Daidouji, e é muito severa com Fujitaka, por causa do que aconteceu com Nadeshiko. Sonomi adora Sakura (porque lembra muito Nadeshiko), assim como Tomoyo.
  - Sua primeira aparição no anime foi de uma professora substituta na escola primária Tomoeda, onde ela ensinava matemática na classe de Sakura. Depois, revelou-se que ela tinha poderes e foi escolhida por Clow para ajudar Sakura no Juízo Final com o Sino da Lua.
  - O Mago Clow é o criador das cartas Clow, um conjunto de cartas com poderes mágicos. É também o criador de Yue e Kerberos, que têm o dever de proteger as Cartas.
  - É um dos guardiões das Cartas Clow, junto a Kero. Quando Kero é o eleitor que escolhe um candidato que se transformará no próximo mestre Clow, Yue é o juiz que tem o dever de testar o candidato. Ele é frio e reservado, e muito mais sério e intimidador do que Kero. Depois de Sakura ter ganhado o Juízo Final, ele e Kerberos decidem continuar em suas formas antigas para ajudar Sakura até que ela esteja realmente pronta para seguir como dona das Cartas e dos Guardiões. Os poderes regentes de Yue (além do seu símbolo a Lua) são Trevas, Vento e Água.
  - Yelan Li é a mãe de Syaoran, e só aparece no primeiro filme, quando Sakura e alguns de seus amigos viajam para Hong Kong. Syaoran é o filho caçula, e o único homem. Antes dele, Yelan teve quatro filhas: Fuutie, Shiefa, Fanren e Feimei. As filhas de Yelan aparecem no episódio 43, quando eram menores (num flashback de Meiling), e voltam no filme, já que adultas.
 Madōshi - Madōshi é uma feiticeira muito poderosa. Ela só aparece no primeiro filme. Depois que Sakura captura a carta Flecha, tem sonhos com essa mulher. Sakura vai a Hong Kong para passar suas férias, mas Madōshi está a procura de Sakura querendo saber onde esta o Mago Clow. No final, Sakura fala para a feiticeira que Clow não está mais entre eles.
  - Chiharu é uma das colegas de classe de Sakura. Ela, assim como Rika Sasaki e Naoko Yanagisawa, aparece frequentemente ao lado de Sakura na escola e nos eventos.
  - Rika é muito elegante e madura para sua idade, e também uma habilidosa cozinheira, capaz de fazer bolos e biscoitos com facilidade. No mangá, Rika tem um caso com seu professor, Yoshiyuki Terada, e esconde esse relacionamento das amigas. Já no anime Rika é apaixonada por ele, mas o contrário não acontece.
  - Colega de classe de Sakura, Naoko adora ler vários tipos de histórias, especialmente de fantasia e histórias sobre fantasmas.
  - É um dos colegas de classe de Sakura na escola. É o único aluno homem na série antes da chegada de Syaoran e Eriol. Yamazaki é tranquilo e se importa muito com Sakura e seus amigos, e tem uma fantástica habilidade de enganar as pessoas inventando histórias fantasiosas. Ele e Chiharu estão juntos desde quando eram pequenos.
  - Maki é a proprietária de uma loja de presentes nova em Tomoeda, onde Sakura e seus amigos fazem compras frequentemente, e também onde algumas cartas Clow aparecem. A loja é construída em um pequeno apartamento em um prédio, onde Maki mora no segundo andar.
  - Terada é professor da escola primária Tomoeda. Em toda a quarta série, e parte da quinta série, é professor de Sakura e Syaoran. Terada parece ensinar vários assuntos, incluindo educação física, como é visto em um episódio da série. No mangá, ele e Rika namoram, mas no anime  só Rika ama Terada.
 - É o cuidador de Akiho Shinomoto, além de ser um mago poderoso, é misterioso e quer tomar a força todas as cartas límpidas.
 - Akiho é a aluna nova transferida para o mesmo colégio de Sakura, é doce e tem semelhanças notáveis com a Sakura, é cuidada pelo Yuna, mora na mesma casa que pertencia a Eriol.
 - Criatura parecida com um coelho de pelúcia, tem o mesmo aspecto do Kero e do Spinel. Somente revela sua forma animada para o Yuna.

Filmes

Cardcaptor Sakura: O Filme

Sakura ganha uma viagem para Hong Kong, para quatro pessoas. Ela viaja com Toya, Yukito, Tomoyo e Kero (escondido) e encontra Meiling e Shaoran durante a viagem. Então, Sakura começa a ter estranhos sonhos, com uma voz a chamando.

''Gekijōban Cardcaptor Sakura'' foi lançado em 21 de agosto de 1999 no Japão e não foi lançado no Brasil. O filme se passa entre a primeira e a segunda temporada do anime (entre os episódios 35 e 36) e não influi na história do anime, ao contrário do segundo filme. Mais tarde, em agosto e dezembro de 2008, o filme foi emitido pelo Canal Panda em castelhano, legendado em português.

Cardcaptor Sakura 2: A Carta Selada

Syaoran volta para o Japão, junto com Meiling. Sakura decide contar a Syaoran o que sente por ele. Objetos começam a desaparecer, assim como Cartas Sakura. Sakura descobre que a única forma de capturar a tal carta é abdicando de seu amor por Syaoran.

''Gekijōban Cardcaptor Sakura - Fūin Sareta Card'' foi lançado em 15 de julho de 2000 no Japão. No Brasil, ele foi vendido na edição 1 da revista Heróis da TV Especial e exibido no Cartoon Network e Rede Globo. No Brasil, ele recebeu o nome de Sakura Card Captors - A Carta Selada.
 Vendeu em VHS e em DVD.

O filme se passa após a terceira temporada, sendo, portanto, o último episódio da série.

Ligações externas

 Página oficial do mangá pela JBC

 Projeto Sakura, Página com bastante conteúdo sobre a série

Séries de manga
Mangás de 1996
Animes de 1998
Shōjo
Mahō shōjo
Animes sobre cartas mágicas
Madhouse (estúdio)
Mangás publicados pela Kodansha
Mangás publicados pela JBC
Títulos da Dark Horse Comics
Programas da NHK

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


This is an up-cycled plastic container with resin fairy, perfect pretty decorative item for your little girl to hold paper clips, candies, small items and just for displace.
Perfect gift for Christmas, birthday and even baby shower decoration.
*The whole item measures about Height 12.5CM X Width 7.5CM (including the fairy), while the resin fairy measures at Height 5CM.
Fixed it on the plastic jar with strong glue.
*White cylinder fairy jar is also available, please refer to the pictures and my Shop.
*Get a set of Pink Fairy Jar with decorative Pink Fairy Cameo pillow cover(LAST picture) as special gift!! Too Cute.


Jan. 29, 2015 10:00 a.m.
While much of the rest of the country is buried in snow, local gardener kick off their season next weekend with the 13th annual Seedy Saturday in Qualicum Beach.
The annual event started as a way for gardeners to exchange locally viable seeds and information, promoting seed diversity, and has grown into a major community event that saw an estimated 2,400 people last year.
The foundation is still the seed swap, where people can trade for, or purchase small packages of seeds for 50 cents, but other popular aspects include experts speaking through the midday, the Roots with Shoots children's program from Milner Gardens, Seedy Cafe delectable from the Galloping Gourmet, over 70 vendors from across Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands, and an exciting raffle.
The raffle prizes this year include a glass vase by renown artist Ted Jolda, a $200 Quality Foods gift certificate and prizes from Lee Valley Tools and Home Hardware.
"A lot of families come and of course it's the major hobby for retired folk," Kelsey said, adding that the kids love the chance to go around and get little packets of seeds they can directly plant as a way to promote getting them out in the garden.
Along with master gardeners and vendors on hand to discuss gardening, the speaker series focuses on growing food with local expert Diane Sharpe at 10:30, Kate Green at noon on "the vibrant seed movement in Canada," and a panel with Kathy Claxton, Kim Hammond and Kay Howard.
The event runs 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. at the Qualicum Beach Civic Centre next Saturday, February 7, admission by donation with all proceeds going to promote local gardening initiatives.


text:
Boris Johnson and Carrie Johnson attended 'bring your own booze' event in No 10 garden during first coronavirus lockdown
The prime minister and his wife Carrie were among around 40 people to attend a drinks event in the Downing Street garden during the UK's first national COVID lockdown, Sky News understands.
Emirates chief blasts 'delinquent and utterly irresponsible' Biden admin over 5G rollout
Emirates suspended flights to nine US destinations on Wednesday
Crocodile found under classroom becomes local celebrity
A sobering reflection of Britain's obsession with drinking
A sobering reflection of Britain's obsession with drinking. We mustn't accept a rise in alcoholism as inevitable, writes Prof Woody Caan, while Isabella Stone bemoans taxpayers having to fund No 10's boozy culture. Plus letters from Catherine King, Mike Pender and Owen Wells
Violence against women: Changing the discourse
'In the name of God, go': Tory fury spills over as Boris Johnson clings on
'In the name of God, go': Tory fury spills over as Boris Johnson clings on. Former minister demands PM's resignation in Commons, one Conservative MP defects and others clamour for concessions
PM: Russian incursion into Ukraine would be 'disaster'
Boris Johnson says a Russian incursion into Ukraine "on any scale" would be a "disaster for the world". The prime minister was responding to a question about US President Joe Biden's remarks in a press conference where he suggested that a minor Russian incursion into Ukraine would not be met by harsh sanctions.
Fire alarm rules will not be delayed again – minister
All homes will be required to have linked alarms from February 1.
Ghislaine Maxwell's lawyers file for a re-trial
Lawyers for Ghislaine Maxwell have filed a motion for a re-trial, just weeks after she was found guilty of recruiting underage girls to be sexually abused by Jeffrey Epstein. The court had heard her described as "dangerous" and Epstein's "partner in crime" before she was found guilty of five out of six counts she faced. It is not clear whether this forms the basis for Maxwell's lawyers seeking a new trial, but they have previously claimed the revelation warrants this.
Wednesday evening UK news briefing: Boris Johnson told 'in the name of God, go!' by David Davis
Inflation soars | Surging food bills helped drive inflation to its highest rate since the early 1990s, in a major blow for Boris Johnson as he battles to save his premiership. The annual rate of inflation climbed to 5.4pc from 5.1pc in November, according to the Office for National Statistics. Read what is behind the rise and how it is affecting salaries in real terms. This is the pay staff will need to demand to keep pace with the cost of living. Head down to Business for how to maximise your e
At least 29 people, including 11 children, have died following a stampede during a Christian crusade in the densely populated New Kru Town, a suburb of the capital Monrovia. The crusade was organised on the D. Tweah sports pitch by renowned prophetic preacher Pastor Abraham Kromah of the Word of Life Outreach Ministries, a Church he built and oversees as its pastor. According to eyewitnesses and survivors, the stampede occurred late Wednesday night local time when a group of criminals, predomina
Do not be 'bystanders to injustice or prejudice', Camilla tells nation
Anne Frank and her much-loved diary were celebrated at an event attended by the Duchess of Cornwall.


Gullible's Travels: Cycling "en danseuse"
Many thanks to Stroppy Cow for introducing me to this delightful French expression for cycling standing up. Something I do regularly when I do not change down in time for the lights or find myself going up an incline.
The trouble is I find I need to do it more and more. I don't remember it being so hard when I used to do the 9.25 miles from South Wimbledon to Devonshire Square. Now I am only doing 6 miles from Wandsworth to Drury Lane and it feels like I am on an exercise bike from the gym.


Today , Por por suggested we go to visit the UMS Marine Research at Likas. When we reach there, not so many people yet, so we took the chance to explore the place. It was just like an underwater world.
I was so shocked coz inside there got so many giant big fish. But after a while, i was so excited and keep shouting ' turtles , big fish'.
I dont know since when Mummy addicted to this hobby. Whenever she's free, she will asked me to squeeze in together for self portrait. Mummy skill really bad coz usually after a few snaps then only i was allowed to go.
But im still having so much fun coz i can make silly faces but i will never take self portrait with daddy. Why ?? Hmm, just feeling a bit weird for 2 man to squeeze together. And daddy skill is more worst than Mummy.
Lately i found myself busy helping out Mummy with house chores. But Mummy said the more I help, the more mess she have to cleared.
I thought Mummy must be very happy when im trying my best to help out. Now, i even bath by myself, but of course with close monitoring. I can differentiate which one is hair shampoo and body shampoo. After finish using it, i will put it back to the rack and keep all my bath toys. Then i will put my wet laundry into wash basket.
After Mummy empty the trash bin, i will put in the plastic. But am having difficulties at the beginning, coz the plastic bag just wont listen to me.
Yesterday Mummy & Daddy brings me out to Jusco S2 for their belated V's celebration...hmm, wasn't that supposed to happen last week?? Oh, i forgot...last week all of us was down with flu virus....so Mummy decided to carry forward.
Mummy said she wants to have late lunch at Sushi King but Daddy insist on having Chinese meals...so after a while of 'discussion', guess who wins???
I just loves to eat this, it was soft, tasty and yummy. I can finish 2 plates of this.
My happy face when im full, but Mummy said this looks ugly coz cannot see my eyes. But its not my fault too, who asked Daddy genes so strong???
After that we proceed to Speedy , I was telling Mummy i wanna buy the Teletubbies VCD. Daddy said , at home already got tonnes of vcd, even cant finish watching , why need to buy more? But guess what?? Looks like Daddy always at the losing side when Mummy's around.
Then the last agenda... We went to this big , dark and cold room. The sound system is very loud and the tv is very big too..and im very scared. Im holding to my Daddy like this..


text:
Beyond Labour Opinion
Explaining the £7.6bn "FFA Black-Hole"
April 14, 2015 April 14, 2015 Kevin Hague
Kevin Hague wrote this piece for his own chokkablog, but a number of Facebook users seem to have reported the link so that sharing his original on Facebook has become difficult. Labour Hame agreed to repost the blog here to allow it to be more widely disseminated.
Today (Sunday 12th April 2015) there's a piece in the Guardian by Kevin McKennathat quotes the IFS's £7.6bn Full Fiscal Autonomy "black-hole" figure and casually dismisses it. I'll go into the detail of McKenna's argument (and why it's completely flawed) later in this post but first we need to establish what that figure actually is.
The simple table below gives us all the information we need, sourced from GERS (actual 2013-14), OBR (March 2015 outlook) and the IFS (the quoted source for the £7.6bn "black hole"):
Let's start with 2013-14 known actual data per Scottish Government's own GERS figures.
I'll assume anybody reading this blog is familiar with GERS figures (if not see this post > GERS simple summary). Those figures show that in 2013-14 Scotland generated a deficit per capita £800 greater than the UK average – if you multiply that by our 5.3m Scottish Population you get a £4.4bn deficit gap. Because our GDP/capita is higher than UK average, if you use %GDP to pro-rate the figure it's£3.9bn.
So what are the forecast assumptions to get to £7.6bn?
Actually this is really simple. The table above shows OBR assumptions on UK deficit; the IFS simply assume Scotland's figures follow the UK trend but adjust for the exceptional decline in North Sea Oil revenues.
The implication of the latest OBR North Sea oil forecast is that Scotland's tax revenue will decline by £3.6bn from 13-14 to 15-16. [Which is why we need to keep caveating 13-14 actuals with "this is before the impact of the oil crash"].
So take the £3.9bn actual 2013-14 deficit gap and add the additional £3.6bn caused by oil decline and you get £7.5bn. I'm not going to bother digging to explain the other £0.1bn.
Well first of all let's clear up a common misconception; the £7.6bn is not Scotland's forecast deficit; the forecast deficit is £14.2bn (8.6% of GDP). The £7.6bn is the amount we'd have to find (through tax rises or spending cuts) to match the expected deficit level of the rest of the UK (4.0% of GDP). That is what FFA would require us to do (give or take – we would likely have some limited borrowing powers but if we're sharing a currency we have to follow similar fiscal rules).
Secondly let's recognise that this is a forecast and therefore uncertain. However we start with a £4bn known gap and the only assumption that drives Scotland to get worse than the UK is oil; most of that is already know so it's hardly a controversial forecast.
Thirdly what does £7.6bn mean? The IFS figure implicitly assumes that part of the deficit decline caused by the oil decline is offset by planned "Westminster cuts" (you may have noticed in the table above that we lose £3.6bn of oil revenue but our deficit only increases by £1.8bn). If you think "Westminster Cuts" of £30bn are scary then consider this; Scotland's share of those cuts would be about £3bn – this £7.6bn would be in addition to that. We really would be talking about Austerity2
Finally – as ever – this is really all about oil. For context the graph below shows actual North Sea Oil revenues over the last 34 years + 3 year OBR forecast. The green line is the approximate level of North Sea Oil revenue required for Scotland to offset our higher spending versus the rest of the UK. Put simply: if oil is above that green line we are better off fiscally autonomous; when it's below it we're worse off.
The gap between the green line (£9.7bn) and the grey bars (actual North Sea revenues) is roughly the size of the "black-hole" caused by fiscal autonomy.
So having established what the £7.6bn figure means, let's now look at the offending paragraph in this piece by Kevin McKenna in the Guardian;
"Of course the IFS figure doesn't bear close scrutiny: it is using numbers gathered in one year to define Scotland's economy in perpetuity. It also fails to take into account that by 2020 Scotland's onshore revenues are predicted to grow by £15bn. It should also be taken into account that the UK's deficit was £98bn last year and that over the five years to 2014 the UK's cumulative deficit has been worth more than £600bn, yet in two of the past four years Scotland's GDP percentage deficit has been less than the UK's. Factor in the fact that, in each of the past 34 years, Scotland has paid more tax per person than the rest of the UK and a future without Barnett looks a lot less gloomy."
There are so many flaws in this one paragraph of text that we'll have to take this step by step;
"Of course the IFS figure doesn't bear close scrutiny"
"Of course" – presumably because the figure casts the SNP's economic policies in a bad light and that simply can't be right?
"close scrutiny" – he's setting himself up here by implying he's applied close scrutiny. Let's see shall we?
"it is using numbers gathered in one year…"
Using numbers gathered in one year? There are 15 years' worth of GERS numbers and he's suggesting the IFS have only looked at the most recent year? That would be remarkably shoddy work from a highly respected think tank.
Actually what the IFS is doing is recognising that the underlying trendexcluding oil & gas is remarkably consistent over the last 15 years. To illustrate here's the GERS figures showing the difference between Scotland's deficit and the UK's expressed as a percentage of GDP but excluding Oil & Gas
Let's remember the deficit gap the IFS is forecasting for 2015-16 is 4.6% – given this is when the assumed Oil & Gas contribution to Scotland's finances is 0.4% of GDP (£600m) the underlying deficit gap the IFS are assuming (excluding oil & gas) is 5.0%. Look at the graph above again; assuming a 5% underlying deficit gap between Scotland and the UK is hardly "using numbers gathered in one year" is it?
"…to define Scotland's economy in perpetuity"
The IFS are explicitly forecasting what the figure will be in 2015-16. His "close scrutiny" has led him to think they are claiming this figure in perpetuity. Golly.
"It also fails to take into account that by 2020 Scotland's onshore revenues are predicted to grow by £15bn"
Quite how a forecast for 2015-16 should take into account forecast revenue growth to 2020 is beyond me
Let's be generous and assume he's making a wider point that the IFS is "failing to take into account" forecast revenue growth. Well of course the IFS have taken this into account; the issue is onshore revenue performance relative to the rest of the UK. The £7.6bn figure is a relative gap not an absolute deficit number Growing in line with the rest of the UK (as the £15bn forecast to 2020 assumes) has no impact at all on the £7.6bn gap.
"It should also be taken into account that…"
I love this phrase – it's like raising a red flag and screaming "there's a non-sequitur on the way".
"… the UK's deficit was £98bn last year and that over the five years to 2014 the UK's cumulative deficit has been worth more than £600bn…"
And here's the non-sequitur – a UK wide absolute deficit figure and a 5 year cumulative total. Of course these numbers bear no relevance to the deficit gap being discussed; presumably he's just chucked these numbers in so that we see numbers that are far bigger than the £7.6bn.
For what it's worth; Scotland's deficit last year was £12.4bn and it's cumulative deficit over that five year period was £62bn. Both figures are higher on a per capita or share of GDP basis than the UK (and that's in a period where oil was relatively booming).
"…yet in two of the past four years Scotland's GDP percentage deficit has been less than the UK's"
Yet? There is no logical linkage here whatsoever – he moves from quoting some absolute UK figures to making a selective observation of Scotland's performance relative to the UK before oil & gas revenues declined. Here's the 15 year chart – he could equally have said in 11 of the last 15 years Scotland's GDP percentage deficit has been greater than the UK's. Of course anybody who's studied GERS understands the fluctuations are all about the oil.
"Factor in the fact that, in each of the past 34 years, Scotland has paid more tax per person than the rest of the UK …"
It's already factored in for heaven's sake! It's in the IFS figures, they've looked at where that tax revenue comes from and adjusted for known decline in Oil & Gas.
I think he's just put this in because it's part of the SNP play-book to mention this fact whenever the economy is discussed. Surely anybody paying attention knows by now that over the last 15 years (the period GERS figures exist for) on average the relative higher public services expenditure in Scotland more than off-sets the higher tax generation. The chart below shows figures on a relative per capita basis between Scotland and rUK – the black line is the "more tax per person" and the red line is the "more spend per person". When the black line is below the red line we generate a higher deficit per person. For reference, the blue line is the relative tax generation figure excluding oil & gas.
"…and a future without Barnett looks a lot less gloomy"
Say what now?
As is surely blindingly obvious to anybody who applies "close scrutiny" to the figures, the only way a future without Barnett looks less gloomy is if North Sea Oil revenues return to about £10bn pa – let me repeat the earlier chart to put that in context.
A future without Barnett looks pretty gloomy to me.
***** ADDENDUM *****
I should for balance have added that of course one way out of this gap is by growing our economy in Scotland faster than the rest of the UK.
I have yet to hear a compelling argument as to why this should happen under FFA – if Westminster parties believed relaxing spending cuts would be self-funding through improved economic growth they'd be all over it – but it's certainly an arguable case.
The numbers are simple: Scotland's onshore tax revenue (2013-14) was £50bn so 15% growth would generate the additional £7.5bn pa.. Of course that needs to be growth over and above that the rest of the UK achieves.
If we grew 1% faster than the rest of the UK it would take us 14 years (compound growth) to get there. The average deficit gap during that period would be £3.8bn (7.6/2) so over 14 years we would have to find an additional £53bn. Let's assume this could be funded with debt – that's £10,000 for every man, woman and child in Scotland.
But actually even this is overly optimistic because the basis of the £7.6bn is to assume we follow rUK spending cuts – in fact there would be additional deficit incurred in early years before this hoped for growth kicks in because the SNP assumption is that growth is driven by modest increase to spending instead of cuts.
So even on these highly optimistic assumptions – a pretty gloomy prospect.
This article is reproduced from chokkablog.
Previous: Not so much a French farce
Next: Five lessons from seven seats
2 thoughts on "Explaining the £7.6bn "FFA Black-Hole""
"Scotland would be as wealthy as Switzerland"—"Embarrassingly rich"—a few words from the McCrone Report, which as we know was hidden from view for decades. After a century of low growth, relative to the UK, Scotland might have found a way to recover our economic strength. Oil revenue.
But it was discovered at a time of serious economic trouble for the UK as a whole. It became essential to get it out of the ground as quickly as possible. Any possible chance of Scotland getting more than a toehold in oil production was lost in the rush.
However there was still all that revenue–surely Scotland would renew its infrastructure, and move to a modern industrial base ? Well, no. The motorways stopped short of our border for decades. There were excellent grants and incentives for inward investment.
England got many new car plants and the supply chain that goes with it.
Scotland got screwdriver plants in direct completion with low wage economies. After Thatcher decimated our heavy industry, we had 13 years of a Labour government. Hopes to renew our industrial base? Not realised. I worked in the last two deep mines in Ayrshire. We had sent a Labour MP to Westminster for a hundred years. Where was the payback ?
Instead of new employment we got opencast mining—an industry which has left huge ecological damage—a director of the biggest company was one Brian Wilson. No apology, nothing.
George Foulkes got to the House of Lords. His constituents got zilch.
What has this got to do with a fiscal black hole ? Nothing and everything. Now there are plans for HS2 for the southern half of England ( Osborne talks of joining OUR COUNTRY, north to south—not hard to know what country he talks about ), which will damage the economies of much of Scotland—£220 million for Aberdeen alone.
The utter uselessness of Scottish Labour MP's over this period of time has left a black hole in labours credibility—if you find a means of filling it, perhaps you could also fill the holes in the ground in Ayrshire.
Kenny says:
You won the referendum! No matter how many seats the SNP wins, they can't ever get FFA if Labour, Tories and LibDems oppose it! What is the point of this argument?


Rystad Energy is delighted to invite you to our Oilfield Service Analytics webinar. In this webinar we will introduce our new product - OFS Analytics, and discuss how it can help you make better decisions within the OFS market. The webinar will be run twice to serve different time zones. Please choose a suitable session for you.


text:
Total Immersion: Can Video Games Replace the Outdoors?
Written by David Kushner, Outside
Maybe not in our hearts, but certainly in our brains. Plus, they can make you love the indoors far too much—which is why there's now a full-fledged, woodsy rehab center for joystick addicts who need a soothing pathway back to a normal life.
For All to Seek
Written by David Kushner, Wired
An epic riddle. An eccentric storyteller. A missing person. When a man vanishes in the wilderness, his family takes to the internet to find him.
Will Virtual Reality Change Your Life?
How a teenager created Oculus Rift in his parents' SoCal garage, sold it for $2 billion and may have launched a virtual reality revolution.
How Africa's Kiro'o Games is Shaking Up the Gaming Industry
Written by David Kushner, Wall Street Journal
Guillaume Olivier Madiba is helming one of the world's most innovative videogame companies—not in Silicon Valley or Japan, but in Africa, where Kiro'o Games is diversifying a $100 billion industry
The Flight of the Birdman
How did a chain-smoking geek from Hanoi design the viral hit Flappy Bird - and why did he walk away?
Vile Rat
Written by David Kushner, Playboy
Diplomat Sean Smith lived in two worlds, but he died in one. This is the story of the American hero and Eve Online gamer known as "Vile Rat."
Sex Drugs & Video Games
The untold story of Atari.
Creating His 'Living World in a Box'
Written by David Kushner, Game Pro
Dave Jones, entrepreneurial game designer known for Grand Theft Auto and Lemmings, talks about getting beat up by Scottish gangs as a kid for achieving a high score in Galaga, how GTA originally had dinosaurs roaming its city streets, and his new open-wor
Written by David Kushner, Blender
Like most 16-year-olds, Blake Peebles wants to play Guitar Hero all day long. Unlike most 16-year-olds, he's convinced his parents to let him drop out of school to do just that.
The Dungeon Master
The life and legacy of Gary Gygax, co-creator of Dungeons and Dragons.
Boorish behavior, backdated stock options, and a hidden sex scene. How Grand Theft Auto hit the skids.
Inside Second Life
Is the hottest spot on the Net paradise on Earth or something a little more sordid? An exclusive behind-the-scenes look at Second Life and its messianic creator, Philip Rosedale
"I'm Not Bobby Fischer"
Written by David Kushner, Salon
Don't call the 18-year-old boy king of chess a geek. He rules a new generation of champs raised on hip-hop and video games
The Neopets Addiction
20 million kids can't get enough - and neither can advertisers. How a virtual animal kingdom became a product placement paradise.


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Tribute to Dr Terry Riley OBE
It was with great sadness that Dot Sign Language learned of the death of Dr Terry Riley OBE.
Terry worked for the British Deaf Association (BDA) for over 50 years, in the position of Chair from 2008-2018. He was also a board member of the World Federation of the Deaf. At the WFD Congress this year he was presented with the First Class International Solidarity Merit Award in recognition for his outstanding contribution in his advocacy work on human rights for Deaf people at the international level.
Kathleen met Terry several times and remembers him as an inspirational role model for Deaf people who will be greatly missed.
You can watch interviews with Terry Riley on BSL Zone – Close Up. https://www.bslzone.co.uk/watch/close-up-series-3/close-up-3-terry-riley-part-1-new/
https://www.bslzone.co.uk/watch/close-up-series-3/close-up-3-terry-riley-part-2/
Posted on: 11th October 2019
Written by: Kathleen Grehan
Categorised: Uncategorised
Tagged: bsl, Terry Riley
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About Dot Sign Language
Dot is a Community Not-for-Profit organisation. We aim to improve communication and understanding between D/deaf and hearing people. We provide first class tuition in British Sign language to anyone who wishes to learn.