text:
Q: Linear operator is trace non-increasing if dual operator is sub-unital I am dealing with the following problem and hope some of you can help me.
Consider two finite dimensional Hilbert spaces $A$ and $B$ and a linear map $L \in \mathcal{L}(A) \rightarrow \mathcal{L}(B)$. The dual map $L^*$ is defined via the Hilbert-Schmidt inner product, namely $\forall M \in \mathcal{L}(A) ~\forall N \in\mathcal{L}(B): ~Tr[N^* L(M)] = Tr[(L^*(N))^* M]$.
Furthermore, we define
$A \leq B ~:\Leftrightarrow B-A$ is positive semi-definite
I want to show the following statement.
(i) $\forall M \in \mathcal{L}(A): ~ Tr[L(M)] \leq Tr[M]$ $\Leftrightarrow$ $L^*(I^B) \leq I^A$
So, I have to show two directions. I cannot relate the positivity to a condition under the trace (and following the definition of the dual, I only have statements under the trace).
e.g. for (i) $"\Rightarrow"$ I tried the following:
I started with setting $N=I^B$ and obtained from the definition of the dual
$Tr[I^B L(M)] = Tr[(L^*(I^B))^*M]$
$\Leftrightarrow Tr[M] \geq Tr[L(M)] = Tr[(L^*(I^B))^*M]$
This has to hold for arbitrary $M \in \mathcal{L}(A)$, so
$\Leftrightarrow \forall M \in \mathcal{L}(A): ~ Tr[(I^A - L^*(I^B))M] \geq 0 $.
Let $\{ v_1,...,v_n\}$ be the set of eigenvectors of $(I^A - L^*(I^B))$, where $n = dim(A)$.
Now I can choose $M$ to be the identity matrix and take the trace with respect to the eigenbasis  $\{ v_1,...,v_n\}$, then I find that all eigenvalues of $(I^A - L^*(I^B))$ are positive, hence we have shown this direction.
Unfortunately, I do not know anything about the geometric multiplicity of the eigenvalues of $(I^A - L^*(I^B))$, hence we do not even know whether we find an eigenbasis. So, in general, my argument seems to be wrong.
Does anyone know how to prove this statement?
I am grateful for any help/hint!

A: Your statement (i) as it stands is wrong. To see this consider the map
$$
L:\mathbb C^{2\times 2}\to \mathbb C^{2\times 2}\quad \begin{pmatrix}a&b\\c&d\end{pmatrix}\mapsto \begin{pmatrix}1&0\\0&0\end{pmatrix}^*\begin{pmatrix}a&b\\c&d\end{pmatrix}\begin{pmatrix}1&0\\0&0\end{pmatrix}=\begin{pmatrix}a&0\\0&0\end{pmatrix}
$$
which is obviously

*

*linear

*completely positive (due to Kraus form)

*self-dual, that is, $L=L^*$ (if $L(A)=K^*AK$ then $L^*(B)=KBK^*$, but here the Kraus operator is self-adjoint: $K=K^*$).

In particular, $L^*$ is sub-unital because $L$ is (self-duality). However---despite $L^*$ being sub-unital---$L$ violates your definition of "trace non-increasing":
$$
\operatorname{tr}\Big(L \begin{pmatrix}-1&0\\0&-1\end{pmatrix} \Big)=\operatorname{tr}\begin{pmatrix}-1&0\\0&0\end{pmatrix}=-1\ {\color{red}>}-2=\operatorname{tr}\begin{pmatrix}-1&0\\0&-1\end{pmatrix}\,.
$$

What you really want to show is the following statement:
$$
\forall_{M\in\mathcal L(A){\bf, M\geq 0}}\ \operatorname{tr}(L(M))\leq\operatorname{tr}(M)\ \Leftrightarrow\ L^*(I^B)\leq I^A\,,\tag*{(1)}
$$
that is, one only checks the trace condition for $M$ positive semi-definite. Then the proof of (1) becomes rather simple:
\begin{align*}
\forall_{M\geq 0}\ \operatorname{tr}(L(M))\leq\operatorname{tr}(M)&\ \Leftrightarrow\ \forall_{M\geq 0}\ \operatorname{tr}(ML^*(I^B))\leq\operatorname{tr}(M)\\
&\ \Leftrightarrow\  \forall_{M\geq 0}\ 0\leq \operatorname{tr}\big(M\big(I^A-L^*(I^B)\big)\big)\\
&\ \Leftrightarrow\ 0\leq I^A-L^*(I^B)\ \Leftrightarrow\ L^*(I^B)\leq I^A
\end{align*}
The only non-trivial (but not too difficult, either) step here is to show that a matrix $A$ is positive semi-definite if and only if $\operatorname{tr}(AB)\geq 0$ for all $B\geq 0$.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Mark Wogan: EURUSD – Any effect from the Midterms?
Early returns from the US midterms suggest that the Democrats have retaken the House of Representatives with Trump extending his majority in the Senate.
What this will mean for the USD and subsequently the eurusd is not clear. However, now that the House is basically against Trump, he and the Republicans will have a more difficult time getting legislation passed such as tax cuts and other fiscal stimulus. In turn this could weigh on the USD. For now we will have to watch what happens and, as ever, trade our levels.
Our pair is still holding up above the 1.13 level and is making cautious ground to the upside. It took out the 1.1450 resistance over night with 1.1480 and 1.15 next up followed by 1.1550.
After a bit of whipsawing overnight as the midterms results came in we have pushed up to 1.1450 as I write. The 1.15 level looks likely to be tested especially as it is also the 61.6 Fibonacci level of the October high and low.
Watch out for any pullbacks to 1.1425 – 1.14 for a bounce back up or if it breaks through these levels, for retests from the underside to get short.
While the market decides on the impact of these elections – or indeed, if any – I´ll be watching the lower time frame charts for entry patterns at our levels above and below the market.


At the weekend we pulled up all our onions and shallots. The leaves had all drooped and started to turn yellow. Garden Girl and I heaved them out of the ground, with squeals of excitement from Garden Girl whenever one of them turned out to be red. Garden Boy meanwhile went backwards and forwards carrying them from the raised bed to the tray I had left on the lawn. We were a well oiled machine and the task was completed in no time.
I then plaited together the onion leaves so we could hang the onions up to dry. Garden Girl watched this with considerable interest having had a young girl from a nearby tent plait her hair while we were camping. She announced that the onions looked very pretty, just like her, and then joined me in separating the shallot bulbs.
Garden Boy, having enjoyed carrying things backwards and forwards, continued his task with businesslike determination only this time he was depositing shallots in secret hiding places all around the garden.Garden Girl and I adopted to play chase there and then, rather treasure hunt later and eventually, but with more exercise than I had anticipated, the onions and shallots were ready for drying.
I was really pleased with the shallot crop and I will definitely be growing more next year. I am not quite as convinced by the onions. A few grew to be about the size of a medium onion but most were quite small and as they started out from sets rather then seeds, this was a little bit disappointing. We also lost a few onions early in the season when the hot weather caused them to bolt. Maybe we could try another variety or else just use the extra space for more shallots. Can anyone recommend an easy to grow onion variety?
Shallots do well for me too, but bigger onions not so much. Have you tried leeks? They are the best of all and glorious in the kitchen.
I planted loads of leeks in early May but they currently look very spindly and weak. I am not sure how they are supposed to look at this time of year but I am just hoping they will bulk out over time.


text:
"""
This subpackage contains classes and functions for work with time series.
"""

from astropy.timeseries.core import *  # noqa
from astropy.timeseries.sampled import *  # noqa
from astropy.timeseries.binned import *  # noqa
from astropy.timeseries import io  # noqa
from astropy.timeseries.downsample import *  # noqa
from astropy.timeseries.periodograms import *  # noqa

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
@interface RWRibbonView ()

@property (nonatomic, strong) UIImageView *ribbonView;

@end

@implementation RWRibbonView

#pragma mark - Constructor overrides
- (id)initWithFrame:(CGRect)frame
{
    self = [super initWithFrame:frame];
    if (self) {
        // Initialization code
        [self addRibbonView];
    }
    return self;
}

- (id)initWithCoder:(NSCoder *)aDecoder
{
    self = [super initWithCoder:aDecoder];
    if (self) {
        [self addRibbonView];
    }
    return self;
}

- (void)addSubview:(UIView *)view
{
    [super addSubview:view];
    // Make sure that the ribbon is on top
    [self bringSubviewToFront:self.ribbonView];
}

#pragma mark - Util method
- (void)addRibbonView
{
    UIImage *image = [UIImage imageNamed:@"RWUIControls.bundle/RWRibbon"];
    self.ribbonView = [[UIImageView alloc] initWithImage:image];
    self.ribbonView.autoresizingMask = UIViewAutoresizingFlexibleLeftMargin | UIViewAutoresizingFlexibleBottomMargin;
    CGRect frame = self.ribbonView.frame;
    frame.origin.y = -7;
    frame.origin.x = CGRectGetWidth(self.bounds) - CGRectGetWidth(frame) - 5;
    self.ribbonView.frame = frame;
    [self addSubview:self.ribbonView];
}

@end


In a lightweight clash, former three-division world champion Yuriorkas Gamboa (27-2, 17 KOs) barely squeaked out a ten round majority decision over Alexis Reyes (15-3-1, 7 KOs) on Saturday night at the Internacional Arena at the Grand Oasis Hotel in Cancun, Mexico. Scores were 95-94, 95-94, 94-94.
Former unified minimumweight world champion Francisco "Chihuas" Rodriguez (24-4-1, 16 KOs) scored a seventh round KO over previously unbeaten Elias Joaquino (11-1-1, 6 KOs) in a super flyweight contest. Time was 2:35.
WBC female heavyweight world champion Alejandra "La Tigre" Jimenez (9-0, 6 KOs) retained her title by stopping Vanessa Lepage Joanisse (3-1, 1 KOs) in round three.


Creative Master Northcord: Rather like a super-detail Corgi bus, for whom they used to make models until a parting of the waves, Northcord have a reputation for perfect detail and higher-than-average quality!
Northcord models of popular fleets often sell out very quickly but are quite highly priced when compared to competing Corgi and Britbus issues.
Items with Pre-Order in the title have yet to be released but can be ordered for dispatch when release occurs. Pre-Order purchases are subject to our £1.75 Pre-Order postage rate if not paid at time of order.


text:
Lille Triangel er en plads på Østerbro i København, knap 500 m sydøst for Trianglen. Her løber gaderne Østerbrogade, Dag Hammarskjölds Allé, Classensgade, Øster Farimagsgade og Øster Søgade sammen. Pladsnavnet er uofficielt, og bygningerne har gadernes adresser. Etageejendommen Dag Hammarskjöld Alle 38 hedder Lille Triangel, lige som busstoppestederne.

Ved hjørnet Østerbrogade og Øster Søgade ligger Sortedams Sø. Ved hjørnet Dag Hammarskjölds Allé og Øster Farimagsgade ligger hovedindgangen til Holmens Kirkegård. Her stod i mange år et mindesmærke for den danske præst og dyreværnsforkæmper Laurids Smith med en lang inskription og en skulptur af en hund. Mindesmærket, der flere gange er fornyet af Dyrenes Beskyttelse, står nu på kirkegården.

På hjørnet af Øster Farimagsgade og Øster Søgade stod fra 1896 til 1973 en telefonkiosk, designet af arkitekt Fritz Koch. Den blev pakket ned, for at blive flyttet til det nyrenoverede Gabelstorv i Aalborg i 2010.

Noter

Gader på Østerbro
Torve og pladser i København

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Raspberry as you've never tried it before!
The sweetness of white chocolate is combined with the fresh note of raspberries in the new Choco Raspberry rippling sauce, a delicate and fruity product that blends different textures and aromas.
Try it to enhance your gelato and offer new and original combinations.


text:
Decoding your Chevy Nova's Vin Code
Nobody wants to find out that the 'dream' Nova they spent hard earned money on was someone's sister's inline 6 with a fresh coat of paint, instead of a highly desirable SS396 or the holy grail of Nova's, the SC427 Nova.
Thanks to VIN codes, this situation could be avoided entirely, ensuring that your money is well spent when it comes to your dream car. If you're new to classic cars or are just looking to refresh your memory on how to decode your Nova's VIN code tag, you've come to the right place.
The VIN code on all cars is essentially the DNA of the car and will tell you everything you need to know about the car's origins. With the car's VIN code, you can find out what year the car was made, what model the car was, where the car was manufactured, what motor and transmission was original to the car, the body style of the car, certain equipment packages and trims, and at what point it came off the assembly line. With this information, you'll be able to determine exactly what the car really was when new, no matter the condition you find it in currently. Whether it's quietly rusting away in a field or fresh after a frame off restoration, you'll know what the car really is.
In this article, we'll walk you through step-by-step on how to decode your Nova's VIN code. Armed with this information, you can be sure that you're getting the Nova of your dreams and not your nightmares!
Step 1: Locate the VIN tag on your Nova
The location of the VIN code tag for 1962-1967 Nova's will be attached to the drivers side front door hinge pillar (ie. left example above). Chevrolet moved the VIN plate in 1968 to the top driver-side of the instrument panel, visible through the windshield (ie. right example above).
Please note that Nova cowl tags have been known to be incorrect when determining original engine. Many tags were stamped for a V8 even though a 4 or 6 cylinder was installed. The VIN will ALWAYS override the cowl tag when there is a discrepancy between the two
Do not mistake the vehicle identification number for the information found on the Fischer Body number plate or trim tag. While these do share some information they detail different aspects of the vehicle.
Step 2: Its all in the Numbers
After you locate your VIN code you'll want to write down the thirteen digits that make up the VIN code. These numbers are critical to finding out all the information you'll need on the history of your Nova. For an example code we'll use a 1970 Nova.
VIN Code: 1 1 4 2 7 0 W 2 6 6 5 6 8
Step 3: Cracking the Code
Now that our vin code is written down it's time to start making some sense of it all. Head over to this article for a detailed breakout of what each number and letter stand for.
The first character classifies the division of General Motors the car was introduced by. In our case it's the number 1, which stands for Chevrolet.
The second character classifies the series model. In our example the character is Q, which stands for Camaro.
The third and fourth character classifies the body style and model of the vehicle. In our case the numbers are 8 and 7, which stands for a 2-door coupe body style.
The fifth character classifies the engine in which the car was produced with. For us that character is T. This means our Camaro was equipped with a 350 C.I. Z/28 engine.
The sixth character classifies the year of the Camaro. On our vin code we see the number 4, which stands for 1974.
The seventh character represents the pant in which the Camaro rolled offf the assembly line. In our case this letter is N which stands for the Norwood Plant in Ohio.
The eight through thirteenth character classifies the sequential production number. Our vin code ends with the numbers 1 7 0 0 0 6. This tell us that our 1974 Camaro was the 70,006th Camaro to roll off the assembly line.
Decode Your Chevrolet VIN Code
The full decoding guide for pre-1981 GM VIN codes
Start Decoding
MORE ARTICLES FROM SS396.COM!
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James bought the 1966 Chevelle convertible from a friend. His buddy had found it as a drag car with no interior, one seat, a roll
Happy New Year Sale!
Start your 2023 on the right pedal & celebrate the New Year!
Now through January 6th, 2023,with Free Shipping* on orders over $125.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
2015 Industry News Lexus Videos
Video: Lexus finally reveals their highly-teased hoverboard–and what a tease it was
August 5, 2015 Chris Chin 2015, Back To The Future II, Hoverboard, Lexus, Technology, Videos
Lexus had us all excited about what seemed to be the first true attempt at a hoverboard using technology and witchcraft.
And recently, the Japanese luxury auto giant finally revealed their concept with full detail–and honestly, it was a bit of letdown.
Surely, it seemed a little far-fetched that an automobile maker bragged about having the key to making a Back to the Future technology vision by Mattel a reality. But Lexus had us sitting on our toes and finally, the beans have been spilled.
But first, it must be pointed out that this hoverboard actually works. But like other hoverboard attempts in the past, there are some catches–some major catches.
For one, Lexus had to specially build an entire skatepark with an integrated magnetic track–up to 200 meters worth. It was then transported to Barcelona, Spain, where the promotional video was recorded and shot.
In order to get the hoverboard to work, the one made by Lexus and developed with IFW Dresden and evico GmbH, utilizes special superconductors cooled with liquid nitrogen. The superconductors are then cooled to extremely cold temperatures to a pretty frigid -197 degrees Fahrenheit. At that point, the superconductors are used to create a super-strong magnetic field and the extreme cold temperatures force the superconductors to then "memorize" a fixed distance. Thus, you have the hoverboard.
Like we said, it works, but not to the extent as we had hoped, like with the one portrayed in Back to the Future II. Either way, it's interesting to watch it work in action.
Check out the video and press blast below.
Lexus Hoverboard Ride Revealed
New Film for the Latest Amazing in Motion Campaign Shows Final Testing in Barcelona
TOKYO, August 05, 2015 — Following the unveiling of the Lexus Hoverboard in June, the luxury automotive company is completing a full and final reveal of the project concluding a successful testing phase which took place in Cubelles, Barcelona.
Mark Templin, Executive Vice President at Lexus International said: "Embarking on this project, we set out to push the boundaries of technology, design and innovation to make the impossible possible. With this project we call 'SLIDE', we collaborated with partners who share our passion for creating enjoyment out of motion. Even through combining our technology and expertise, we discovered making a hoverboard isn't an easy process. We've experienced the highs and lows and have overcome a few challenges, but through mutual determination we have created a demonstration of our philosophy in design and technology to create Amazing in Motion."
The Lexus Hoverboard project began 18 months ago through a collaboration with a team of scientists from IFW Dresden and evico GmbH, who specialize in magnetic levitation technology. Following extensive testing with pro skateboarder and hoverboard test rider Ross McGouran, in Dresden, Germany, the team were determined to push the hoverboard to its limits and conduct further tests within dynamic surroundings.
"I've spent 20 years skateboarding, but without friction it feels like I've had to learn a whole new skill, particularly in the stance and balance in order to ride the hoverboard. It's a whole new experience," said pro skateboarder and hoverboard test rider Ross McGouran.
Since the Lexus Hoverboard was unveiled in June, testing has been carried out in a specially constructed hoverpark, combining elements from skate culture with technology within its architecture. Up to 200 meters of magnetic track was transported to Barcelona from the Dresden facility to lay beneath the hoverpark surface in order to create the dynamic test, offering Lexus the opportunity to demonstrate tricks no skateboard could ever perform, like travelling across water. Lexus has captured the final ride footage and released it as a film led by award winning director Henry-Alex Rubin.
The Lexus Hoverboard technology features two "cryostats"—reservoirs in which superconducting material is kept at -197 degrees through immersion in liquid nitrogen. The board is then placed above a track that contains permanent magnets. Dr. Oliver de Haas, evico CEO, said: "The magnetic field from the track is effectively 'frozen' into the superconductors in the board, maintaining the distance between the board and the track—essentially keeping the board hovering. This force is strong enough to allow the rider to stand and even jump on the board."
The Lexus Hoverboard film called "SLIDE" features the high performance GS F and is part of the fourth project in the Lexus "Amazing in Motion" campaign series that showcases creativity and innovation from the Lexus brand. About Amazing in Motion:
"Amazing in Motion" is an inspiring set of global projects, created by Lexus International to showcase its imagination, innovation and design excellence. It builds on the Lexus ambition to connect with the hearts, as well as the minds, of the consumer. SLIDE is the 4th in the series of the Amazing in Motion campaign. The previous campaigns can be viewed at: amazinginmotion.com
About evico GmbH:
evico GmbH is a subsidiary of the Leibniz-Institute for Solid State and Materials Research Dresden (IFW), both based in Dresden, Germany. Evico develops superconducting magnetic bearings for industrial applications and transportation. IFW is a leading research institute in the field of material science that performs research from the fundamentals to applications.
About Ross McGouran:
With his effortless style and huge bag of tricks, Ross has become one of the fastest and most engaging skaters around. Ross began skating 20 years ago on the concrete surfaces of his local skate park in the U.K. He came up quickly through the sponsored ranks due to his ability to skate anything—flying through every contest he entered. Ross is part of the Element Europe team. He is also a pro-rider for Vans Europe, travelling with them to countries such as Sri Lanka, China, New Zealand, Australia, and Spain.
Recent Career Achievements: 2009 and 2010 – 1st UK Champs, 2011 – 2nd UK Champs, 2012 -1st Vans DTSD Amsterdam, 2014 -1st Oslo Games.
Being sponsored by Vans & Element has given Ross a platform to showcase his talent, and magazines such as Sidewalk, The Berrics and Red Bull Skateboarding have been quick to seize on this; especially in the wake of the phenomenally successful "Hold it Down" video from 2013.
About Henry-Alex Rubin:
Upon graduating from Columbia University's film program, Henry-Alex Rubin dove into filmmaking and was mentored by director James Mangold. Since then, Henry has made documentary films and broken into the commercial world, winning various awards along the way. Recently, Henry collaborated with Chiat Day and Gatorade on Derek Jeter's goodbye spot celebrating Yankees fans, the city of New York and the end of Jeter's baseball career. The spot received worldwide acclaim and was featured as Adweek's Ad of the Day, gaining over 9 million hits on YouTube. At the Cannes Lions 2015, Henry came away with a number of Lions, including a Gold in Film for his Gatorade "Made In NY" spot. He also swept the decks with his Burger King, "Proud Whopper" spot, taking home a phenomenal 9 Lions, including 3 Gold, 3 Silver and 3 Bronze across the categories.
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← The 2016 Chevrolet Colorado gains new Midnight and Trail Boss variants
The 2016 Chevrolet Volt gets its official EPA economy and range figures →
Chris Chin
Chris Chin is the Editor-In-Chief of egmCarTech and is a regular contributor to Automobile Magazine.
admin has 4428 posts and counting.See all posts by admin
The 2016 Cadillac CT6 is here to stomp on the full-size executive ground
April 1, 2015 Chris Chin Comments Off on The 2016 Cadillac CT6 is here to stomp on the full-size executive ground
Video: Volkswagen teases new GTI Supersport Vision Gran Turismo Concept
April 10, 2015 Chris Chin Comments Off on Video: Volkswagen teases new GTI Supersport Vision Gran Turismo Concept
Report: The Ford Taurus might not come back to the US
August 18, 2015 Chris Chin Comments Off on Report: The Ford Taurus might not come back to the US


He put us here to save us!
Why do you say God put is here to be saved, if we were created by God (assuming a theistic position)?
Yep, you were right sparrow. It is a long post . But I think it can be covered by just answering the following.
...and the answer is.....exactly the same way in which Logoman said it is going to be done in his heaven. So in effect, the question still stands. If in heaven we will have the knowledge of sin without having to directly experience sin, why couldn't that be the situation here and now? If you are saying that we cant know something without actually experiencing it then that must also apply in your heaven...or am I missing something?
So how is it going to be done in your heaven? You appear to agree with Legoman when he says that in his heaven we won't have to have the experience of something in order to get the knowledge of it. I don't understand why your god is perfectly capable of giving the knowledge of something without having to experience it in one place but not in another.
In order to know something, we must experience it. Once we have experienced it (at least once), we know it. So we don't have to keep experiencing it over and over to continue to know it, which is what it seems you are implying.
When in heaven, we won't experience evil any more, but we will still know and understand what it is because of our previous experiences here and now.
Logs? Man, forget legos... I want to see someone build a deathstar out of logs. lol... I can't count how many times I've typed logoman instead of legoman.
yay. thanks for asking good questions. This is all part of the stuff that I think about too. and what about babies who died? What about them? They didn't really experience ANYTHING. I know what you're saying and I'll be back on tonight so I can be in late-night mode. This kind of stuff, I gotta be in late-night mode so people (in my house) don't interrupt my thought process. It's a bit more abstract, and it's hard to put into words. I'll try to cut down on the rambliness.
Or find out about it from a CREDIBLE source.
God does not exist. It's very simple.
All right. In case you guys are still following the discussion, (which I hope you are) I'm not a slacker... but it's 3:30 in the morning and I got distracted with something else on the other forum. I'll be back at some point later. This is such a good conversation. But now I'm all rambled out. Be back soon during my next night-time mode.
Haha Hurry back sparrow! Our conversation has stalled...we're waiting for You!
I had to google that, I had no idea what the heck you were talking about.
I don't really agree with that, though. I believe that we DO have to experience something in order to gain knowledge. But... we are ALL experiencing things in different ways. We don't ALL have to experience the same EXACT things, though. As a WHOLE, we're all going to learn what we need to learn. It's like we're all learning the SAME thing we came to learn (In my eyes, the main thing we need to learn is the power of LOVE and the destructive nature of NON-LOVE throught ALL of creation) but we are learning this in different ways. SAME LESSON. But different experiences. Different intensities. And every life lived... will be a testimony to the power of love/destructive nature of non-love. And we will ALL understand EACH testimony (maybe like I said that is what the books of life are) because we EACH had our OWN experience of love and non-love. So we will have a reference point. Man, the puppet show thing... I get what you are saying. I DO! But, it's like what I was saying about when you're a baby. How would we know what the puppet show WAS, how would we know what the props were, and what the figures were, and what the heck they were even saying if we first didn't learn what all of that stuff WAS in the first place? How would we even know that we were watching a puppet show if we weren't first slowly experiencing things that led up to us KNOWING that it WAS a puppet show. And what puppets were, and what the props were, etc.?
However I am starting to feel as if I were not.
Before this gets TOO weird... do you understand what I'm saying about the puppet show? I'm starting to feel like I'M in a puppet show right now and it's freaking me out. Maybe I just need to go eat something.
Again, I am ABSOLUTELY NOT trying to force you down my path. I'm not. I totally respect everyone's views. I'm just putting my viewpoint out there. Because come on, we're all human beings, and we all have different interesting perspectives to share. Sorry if I've said this before... but I'm just not into debating people in an effort to force them down my path. Other folks beliefs are their business and everyone has their own path to walk. I just like talking about stuff and sharing.


Caroline, proud mother of two, is PIC & Director of Care at Moorehall Lodge Drogheda. With over 25 years experience in various clinical and leadership roles in the UK and Ireland, Caroline is passionate about providing homely personal quality care within the Household model. Equallly passionate about being an effective leader, Caroline brings boundless energy, organisation and experience to her workng life on a daily basis always supporting her teams to create a place people can call home. Caroline has created a culture where the resident is central to her teams approach, always trying to balance the living experience and compliance.
From the day Tanya qualified as a nurse back in 1982, she chose a career in care of the elderly. She sought from her early days as a newly qualified nurse to engage her colleagues in her passionate vision for a compassionate approach to care of older persons. She has worked throughout her career to de-institutionalise care in residential settings and focus instead on the humanity and dignity of those in her care.
Tanya has 34 years' experience in caring for people in residential care settings, 16 of those years have been as a Director of Nursing. She worked in the Public, Voluntary and Private sector as a Director of Nursing. Tanya came to Mount Hybla in 2012 to set it up in preparation for registration and to be the Director of Nursing there. Mount Hybla Private which is part of the Beechfield Nursing Home Group is a beautiful purpose built unit filled with light and space and is wonderfully conducive to quality of living for our residents.
Tanya has a reputation for being passionate about person centred care for residents and for enthusiasm and determination in ensuring the care team always aim for highest standards and excellence in reputation. Her best skills are as a change agent and for inspiring and mentoring her team to view the world of care in this light. Most of all Tanya believes that care is about sharing, kindness, fun, and love. Tanya passionately nurtures this within the care team.
She cares deeply for her residents and has a reputation for advocating at all times for their rights and dignity. She is formidable in this respect, yet has a deep sense of fun and mischief which is infectious and so she is forgiven a lot! Where a door appears to be locked Tanya will show where there are windows that can be climbed through in order to achieve our goals for the precious people we care for.
Frances Neilan was appointed Director of Nursing in Clarenbridge Nursing, within the Windmill group in 2014. Frances set about a culture shift by enabling staff to embrace her vision of making the Nursing home a flourishing place for Residents and staff to live in harmony. The goal was to improve the lived experience for the Resident. This involved an emphasis on the biopsychosocial model of care. The theory is that 'how a person lives their life has an effect on their health and wellbeing'. Social and Recreational programmes were enhanced to encapsulate all aspects of the resident's life. Improvements were noted in resident's appetites, sleep patterns and positive behaviours which were all a by-product of of creative physical and psychological programmes available to residents. The health outcomes were evident in the audits, a reduction was noted in falls, restraints and medications coupled with improvement in mobility and psychological wellbeing. Her commitment to staff education and training is paramount to ensure staff deliver a quality service which is rewarded by staff initiatives employed to promote a positive work environment. Frances has an open door policy with all staff, residents and families, everyone has a voice and are listened to at all times. Her dedication and hard work have contributed to the happy, safe and loving environment and atmosphere felt by residents and families.
Catherine Donnelly is a Clinical Nurse Manager in Hamilton Park Care Facility.
She came to Nursing late in her life. She graduated from DCU in 2013 and began her Nursing career in Beaumount Hospital but quickly realised that she loved working with the elderly.
She came to Hamilton Park in 2014, where she worked as a Staff Nurse on an Acquired Brain Injury Unit. After six months she took on a new role as CNM in the Acquired Brain Injury Unit managing a 40 bed Unit.
After one year she took over as CNM in a different Unit looking after 34 elderly residents. She has also just enrolled with the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland to study a Post Graduate Diploma in Wound Management and Tissue Viability.
Jane trained and worked as a psychiatric nurse in Dublin. While working in acute admission and high dependency units, Jane found her fulfilment while working with the older clients. From here Jane specialized in Dementia and Palliative care.
Jane Joined Barchester Knightsbridge team as a staff nurse in 2013. Jane has used her natural gift for recognising and responding to the needs of residents with communication difficulties and dementia through the development of peoples interpersonal skills to create a person centred environment which as seen the quality of life of the residents improve.
Bini began her nursing career as a Clinical Instructor in 1999 earning her Master's Degree in Nursing in 2001. Bini continued as a Nursing Professor in South India, working to improve the lives of people in rural communities. In 2010, Bini was awarded "Study of the Decade ", for a dissertation outlining improved outcomes for children in these communities based on social supports she implemented.
In 2005 Bini migrated to Ireland, starting work as staff nurse in Esker Lodge. Bini had many promotions within Esker Lodge and is now the Clinical Nurse Manager. She is extremely committed in her role and is an excellent leader.
With support from her colleagues on the management team, Bini has completed FECTAC level 6 courses in gerontology and management. She successfully completed a Higher Diploma in Person Centered Dementia Care from the University of Surrey. In 2014 she qualified with distinction as a Registered Nurse Prescriber. This qualification allowed Bini to implement a polypharmacy programme which she is very passionate about, resulting in great outcomes for residents.
Bini believes resident care should be of the highest standard, holistic in nature & blended with the fruits of good spirits. Bini's dedication and commitment to resident's well- being is paramount.
Philip Archbold is a Kind, Caring and Compassionate young man with 2 years experience working as a Carer at just 24 years old.
Lorraine commenced employment in May 2007 as a Healthcare Assistant and shortly thereafter was promoted to the position of Senior Healthcare Assistant. In showing excellent person centred care and family support she was a deserving candidate for the position of Healthcare Assistant Manager in 2014.
Lorraine works alongside the Healthcare Assistants on the floor on a daily basis. She supervises the Healthcare Assistants and leads their work by example and ensures the resident's needs are met to the highest standard. Lorraine strives to create a happy working environment and believes that the welfare and knowledge of the residents and their families is at the heart of the nursing home.
Churchill started working as a Health Care Assistant in 2009 and is a valuable team member of FNH. Churchill through the years has honed himself into becoming a highly skilled, confident and compassionate health care provider. He is committed to enhancing sensory stimulation to FNH residents and provides them with musical and spiritual activities that can evoke emotions of old time memories, sense of spirituality and wellbeing. He is genuine and holistic in all his dealings to the residents. Churchill is an enthusiastic Ferndene Creative Arts Society and Ferndene Choir member, a Sonas Practitioner, a wonderful colleague and an advocate to older people.
Ferndene Creative Arts Society are a group of passionate people made up of residents, staff, volunteers and anyone affiliated with Ferndene who collaborate to make magical moments through the arts, who encompass the whole-home approach to ensure the home is consistently an interesting, exciting and vibrant place with innovative projects such as 'Painting with Emotions' Art Project, Rose Loge Sensory Stimulation project, Mom's Café, Music Therapy, Resident's Choir, Eco-therapy Project, Care-Partner and Memory Box Project, Mindfulness Project and many more. They combine creative forces, utilise and share talents, skills and energy to ensure that events and projects are well-planned, fun-filled and full of laughter. It includes the ever-growing team of in-house musicians who have both scheduled and impromptu music sessions throughout the week including 'Thursday Night Live', the chef who caters for Ferndene's monthly events and regularly provides culinary demos for the residents, the talented Art Therapist whose art project has included 2 large-scale art exhibitions in the last year, the staff who run the gardening club, knitting class , arts and crafts afternoons, Residents Choir, the photographer who captures all the meaningful moments, the amazing residents and staff who raise money every year for various charities including Childline and The Alzheimer's Society of Ireland, the in-house physio and Social Care Leader who organise the yearly 'Olympic Games' sports festival, the Director of Nursing who over-sees it all and Carol Day 'Calamity Jane' , resident ambassador, spokesperson and leading lady in the Ferndene Creative Arts Society, they are only some of the talented, creative, somewhat eccentric individuals who promote positive ageing through the arts.
Niamh joined Altadore Nursing Home as Activity Coordinator in 2010 with an MA in Applied Christian Spirituality and a Higher Diploma in Spiritual Guidance. To support her interest in working with older people, she also attained a Fetac 5 Healthcare Support qualification and a DIT level 7 Certificate in Activities Programme Development. In addition, she is a Sonas Licenced Practitioner and has trained in Clinical Pastoral Education.
With the invaluable support of nursing home founder Mary O'Reilly, she has taken responsibility for the further development of a comprehensive activity programme based on the interests and needs of residents. She creatively combines her education and training with great enthusiasm for the job and love of the people. Working with a supportive management and a committed team of activity staff and volunteers, she considers it her privilege to develop caring relationships with residents, while facilitating a range of social, cognitive, physical, spiritual and fun activities.
Marilyn, Sarah, Brian and Sigita have been specially chosen as the social and recreational team in Mount Hybla. All four of them are deeply committed to enhancing the quality of life for our 66 residents. They are creative, flexible enthusiastic and responsive.
They are exceptionally good at ensuring that all of the care team are fully engaged in the activities programmes. And they do this by making life fun for everyone. Walking into Mount Hybla you will never know what you will meet! People (residents and staff alike) have been dressed up in 1916 attire, Valentine Hearts, the Green White and Gold of Saint Patrick's Day, Easter Bonnets, the Stars and Stripes of the 4th of July, Halloween dress, the black tie and the posh frocks for the Mount Hybla Rose and outlandish sports gear for the Mount Hybla Sports day and not to forget the Christmas season. And dressing up isn't enough! Everyone participates in order to create fun laughter and joy.
They have a whole army of people coming in to engage the residents and their relatives in creative arts, exercise, music, dance, horticulture, spiritual nourishment, and academic pursuit. Nobody's birthday is forgotten and trips out are a source of great enjoyment.
The balance between giving and receiving is one way the team ensure the residents feel involved in society and beneficial to communities as is evidenced by the charity work the residents engage in, their involvement in elections and political life and their active participation in their Residents Council facilitated by SAGE where the team support them to make sure they have their say.
In essence the team are true advocates of the humanity and individuality of our wonderful residents. They are the Heart of Mount Hybla.
Andrew trained in Cathal Brugha Street. He began his career in the restaurant industry, spending many years developing his skills before entering the health care sector in 2010.
He began as Head Chef for TLC and was promoted to Group Executive Chef for the TLC Group in 2015. During this time, he studied Holistic Nutrition and Wellbeing.
Andrew has a passion for his work; he promotes good health through food. He cares about nourishment and choice for residents and values the fact that meal times are sociable times. As he says himself, he works within his client's home!
Margo Kelly, Head of catering at Rathkeevan Nursing Home for 15 years, a bed Care Facility in Clonmel, Co. Tipperary. Married to Jimmy, she has a daughter and son, Aoife and Liam and lives in Newcastle.
Outside of work Margo leads a very busy life. She has traveled to Chernobyl on 10 occasions as a volunteer to work in the Orphanages. At home she is no different, volunteering with various Community Groups, in particular, the Voluntary Housing Association where they built 17 homes for the elderly in Newcastle.
Her hobbies include hiking, cycling, knitting, reading and travelling. Margo likes nothing more than spending time with family and friends.
Sarah McDonagh a native of Clarenbridge, was promoted to Executive Chef in Clarenbridge Nursing Home, within the Windmill Group in 2016, having worked as a head chef in the Nursing home for the previous six years. Sarah is dedicated to the ongoing quality improvement and enjoyment of the 'dining Experience' for all the residents. She redesigned the dining department to include a fresh fruit buffet table promoting choice and independence. She has contributed to promoting healthy diets and awareness of resident dietary intake and food choices and how this impacts on the resident's health. She works closely in communicating this message through her involvement in the Multidisciplinary Team. Her knowledge of the MUST scores and its impact on the resident's health status has improved her awareness of the resident's dietary requirements. Sarah provides health promotion education to all the residents, advising them that there are choices available and recent auditing has demonstrated significant health improvements such as reduction in constipation and digestive complaint's. She is a key staff member and has the time to entertain residents with her cheerful and pleasant disposition every day.
Originally from the local area of Cloverhill Roscommon, Dermot started working in maintenance at Sonas Cloverhill in 2014. Dermot has a background in electronics and automation and prior to commencing work at Sonas, he acted as a carer for his father.
Since joining Sonas, Dermot has undertaken many innovative projects which have benefitted residents, and has become an integral part of the Nursing Home Community. His job description has grown and diversified to include activities, driver, gardener, IT expert and most importantly, friend to all residents.
Outside of work, Dermot is a member of the local AED committee, former secretary of the local hurling club and was in involved in the local graveyard restoration works.
Laszlo lives in Barna with his wife Dana and children Ariana, 9 and Lukas, 3. He has been maintenance man at Áras Chois Fharraige for 14 years. He always makes time for residents, whether it be to hang a picture or repaint a bedroom in a preferred colour. He is dedicated, kind and sincere. As the Home's Fire Marshall his evacuation procedures have been praised by the local Fire Officer and as H & S Officer he ensures the home has one of the lowest falls rates nationally. He also maintains the gardens and looks after our mini farm of pygmy goats, chickens, ducks and the aquarium. He is a qualified carpenter and at Christmas constructs a large wooden crib outside the Home, to raise money for the homeless.
Jordanna Came up with the 'heroes of TLC' project when thinking about ways to get the residents thinking about themselves in a positive way. 'We all have super powers' Everyone has something they are good at, or some good quality they possess that helps themselves and others.
This project aims to encourage the residents to think about their abilities and attributes in a positive way, and how they can use them to fight some of the adversities facing the older generation e.g. loneliness, apathy and being misunderstood.
Each individual resident created a character based on their own good qualities choosing the name, power and even designing their costume. The residents found this very empowering as it reinforced how much value we all have regardless of age. Jordanna and the activities teams brought this project to residents who had mobility issues or people who couldn't come to the class. They got them involved with painting backgrounds for the comic book and story development. They tried to include as many people as possible. The residents Of TLC nursing homes have also created awareness posters to help share their message to their communities. They made Pottery pieces based on their individual power, so they got to explore these ideas in pottery too.
Both the residents and the team wanted to open communication between the older and younger generations, this Comic Book has been a great way to start. A lot of our volunteers were from youth groups and local children, they were surprised at how talented our residents are and it really opened their minds. It created a wonderful atmosphere of storytelling and empathy. It gave the residents a sense of being involved in their communities, and empowered them to let their light shine.
Mary worked for 30 years in Public Health Nursing as Area Nurse & Assistant Director. She spent 5 years as Director at the Institute of Community Health Nursing and was founder member & chairperson of the Global Network of Public Health Nursing.
In 2007, she moved to the Nursing Home sector and worked both as Director of Nursing and Quality Consultant for HIQA & JCI accreditation. In 2014. she spent 4 months with Concern Worldwide during the Ebola epidemic in Liberia. In 2015, she was appointed Manager at the Health & Wellness Centre, Carrigoran House, Co. Clare.
Roisin joined the Millbrae Lodge team in 2011 as a Health Care Assistant after she attained her Diploma in Nursing Studies. Roisin has held the position of full time Social Care Coordinator since 2013 when she completed a certificate in Dementia Training and the Sonas programme. Roisin completed FETAC Level 6 in Event Management and uses this knowledge to organise activities and events promoting a fun, entertaining and fulfilling nursing home life. Her more recent certificate in Barbering and the workshop in Creative Arts and Social Therapeutic Horticulture Activities better enable Roisin to tailor programmes to the respective interests of the residents. She is currently undertaking an MA in Education and Wellbeing of the older person at Mary Immaculate College.
We are a team consisting of a Nurse Manager, 2 Staff Nurses, 2 Senior Care Assistants, 1 Activities Co-ordinator and Corporate/Household Manager who have undergone 'Educate the educators' training in Communication and Care giving in Dementia.
We have successfully developed a Dementia Care Service Model which is both educational and informative. We believe that everyone is included in the care of our Residents in a relationship centred way.
By having a better understanding of dementia and its effects, we focus on educating and informing our staff, family members and people from the wider community through our monthly advertised open information sessions which are well attended. Sharing experiences and challenges has had a significantly positive effect.
Environment, activity and stimulation, visual aids, meaningful staff interactions are just examples of what we question and seek to improve upon.
We are now planning and implementing environmental changes which we are very excited about!
Sarah qualified as a Registered General Nurse in 1983. To Sarah nursing was always a vocation rather than a profession. Sarah has worked with the elderly since 2004 however, what distinguishes Sarah most is her enthusiasm, motivation and passion. Sarah continues to be the driving force as a leader. Sarah acknowledges that good care requires education and has undertaken many courses over the years. Sarah shares her knowledge to ensure her staff are competent, confident and comfortable when caring for residents. Sarah is a firm believer in positive role modelling with undiminishing motivation.
Des Mulligan joined the Sonas Group of Nursing Homes in August 2015 as the Operations Manager for their Ard na Greine home in Enniscrone. Part of his brief with the Sonas Group has focused on the establishment of Quality of Life Committees across the homes of Sonas. These committees aim to create a 'highlight to the day' for each resident, and to integrate community life into the home.
Prior to joining Sonas Des worked as a Regional Manager with the Alzheimer Society of Ireland where he led on several projects that sought to improve services and care pathways for people living with dementia.
Chrissie Barron lives in Collon Co. Meath with her husband Ronan and son Tiernan. She has worked in Moorehall Lodge Ardee since 1999 where her primary role is caring for the Residents.
Chrissie trains staff in Person First and Dementia Butterfly programme she has also completed her Fetac 5 course in Palliative Care.
Chrissie feels very privileged to be in a position to help Residents live a more meaningful and fulfilled life in a place they call home. She is passionate about what she does and is delighted to be part of the Moorehall Lodge Team.
Linda trained in the UK as a registered general Nurse. She gained considerable nursing experience after travelling extensively in Australia and the US. Linda has held the role of Person in Charge at Millbrae Lodge since 1999. She completed The European Certificate in Essential Palliative Care and workshops focusing on End of Life Care for residents suffering from dementia, along with training in Adult Education, Leadership and Management.
Linda was instrumental in implementing initiatives in end of life care which were acknowledged by the Irish Hospice Foundation through their Journey of Change programme. She is a role model, creating an environment of support and learning, building staff confidence in responding to the needs of the residents nearing the end of their lives.
Living in Co. Kildare originally from Dublin, Carol is married with 3 children. Carol does marathon running and is also a Boxing Coach. She has been involved in Healthcare for the past 10 years, with many qualifications including Fetac Level 5 Healthcare Assistant and Activity Coordinator.
Carol is dedicated to End of Life Care, taking a Person- Centered Approach. Our Oratory was created through the contacts she has made resulting in beautiful donations of Altar and religious artefacts and paintings. Carol has built up a network of significant professions of priests' undertakers and singers, to enable and ensure, reassurance for both the resident and their family, that their dignity and End of Life Wishes are respected at all times. She is the important link on their final journey.
Patrick Donnelly is a resident of Kingfisher unit in Hamilton Park Care Facility. Pat, as he likes to be known, has lived in Hamilton Park since 21st May 2015.
Pat has overcome many obstacles in his life and has blossomed since residing in Hamilton Park. He has strived to develop his passion for art and has not only contributed to the many projects within the care facility, but has also gifted many friends with portraits of themselves and their loved ones. Pat has gained confidence and has made many friends within the community of Kingfisher unit.


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Q: Chances to win an election Let's say that tomorrow national president election is held. A poll asks 1100 persons which of the two candidates, A or B, will he or she will vote. 750 say will vote A, and 250 say will vote B. What are the chances each will win the election?  I think this problem is not the same as choosing a random voter and let him or her decide. Therefore, I assume that the chance A wins elections is higher than 0.75, and closer to 1.
Update: Since the election generated a lot of fuss let me rephrase the question: you have a box containing $N$ white and black balls. From the box you extract $N' <= N$ random balls and count $W$ white balls and $B$ black balls ($W + B = N'$). What is the probability that the box initially contained more white balls than black balls?

A: Even with your updated version, there is not a well defined answer (which does not make this a bad question!) You need to have a prior distribution on the probability that the box contained various numbers of balls to start with.
Let's do some small examples. Suppose, that you are given a box with three balls. You sample one ball, and it is white. What should your estimate be that the majority of the balls are white? As we will see, we can't answer this question without some prior beliefs about how the balls were placed in the box.
Suppose, at first, that you know the two balls were chosen at random from a large collection, with equally many white and black balls. So, before sampling, your probability estimates were $1/8$ for three black balls, $3/8$ for BBW, $3/8$ for BWW, and $1/8$ for WWW. The probability that the initial distribution was BBW, and that you would sample a white, is $(3/8)(1/3)=1/8$. The corresponding probabilities for BWW and WWW are $1/4$ and $1/8$. So, conditioned on the fact that you sampled a white, the probability that the balls
are BBW is $(1/8)/(1/8 + 1/4 + 1/8) = 1/4$, and we see that the probability that the majority are white is $3/4$.
But now suppose that white balls are very rare. For example, say your box was packed from a collection which had 9 black balls for every 1 white ball. Then the corresponding probabilities before sampling are $(9/10)^3$ for BBB, $3\*(1/10)\*(9/10)^2$ for BBW, $3\*(1/10)^2\*(9/10)$ for BWW and $(1/10)^3$ for WWW. The probabilities that these distributions would hold and that you would sample a white ball are $(1/10)\*(9/10)^2$ for BBW, $2\*(1/10)^2\*(9/10)$ for BWW and $(1/10)^3$ for WWW. So, conditioned on you sampling a white ball, the probability that the box holds BBW is
$$\frac{(1/10)\*(9/10)^2}{(1/10)\*(9/10)^2+ 2\*(1/10)^2\*(9/10)+(1/10)^3},$$
 and so forth. I'm too lazy to calculate the probability that the box is majority white in this case, but it should be much less than $3/4$.
This is why polls always report their margin of error as a $p$-value. When a pollster says "75% of Americans will vote for Kodos, with a margin of error of $\pm 10%$", this means "the probability that I would have obtained these poll results, conditioned on the assumption that either fewer than 65% or more than 85% of Americans will vote for Kodos, is $<.05$." (The use of $.05$ as a threshold is traditional, and has no deep significance.) If you have prior reason to know that the majority is very likely to vote for Kang then, even after you see the poll, the odds of Kodos winning might still be slim.

A: See Terence Tao's post "Small samples, and the margin of error", from 10 October 2008.

A: You question about balls is still not well-defined. You would be able to solve it if you had some a priori probability on the set of possible distributions of preferences of voters. Then you data would change this distribution to an a posteriori distribution $P\{$number of votes for A is Q$\} = P_i$ and it would be possible to find the probability that A wins as $\sum_{i>N/2} P_i$.
An example why more data is necessary: suppose the political tradition in the country is as follows:

*

*There are exactly two parties

*During each election each party suppors exactly one candidate, possibly the same

*Exactly half of the people belongs to each party and votes for the candidate party supports

Then the survey data rule out the possibility that the parties support the same candidate so there must be a draw with probability 1.
While it's strange to have such a big amount of a priori information (though who are we to judge the ways of those people?), and it's unlikely that the survey will split 750/250 if the real probabilities are 50/50, this it's logically consistent and possible with your model.
So it's clear there can be no general method for finding the probability you requested the from data you have.
A possible a priori distribution would be uniform among the number of voters voting for A, though a more realistic one would be that each person votes for A with probability P. Either way, the probability that given your data A will win is close to 1.

A: I suppose one needs to assume that every potential voter had a nonzero probability of being polled.  Then one needs to estimate that probability so that the results from the poll can be weighted accordingly.  Otherwise, you really cannot say anything.
See, e.g., this wikipedia article for some discussion on this murky topic.

A: Depends on where you've held the poll. If you took that poll in the home town of A, and asked mostly his relatives then the poll is extremely unreliable.
What counts is demography and the number of people who will do the actual voting. This poll would be more reliable if only 10.000 people would vote than when 1 billion people would vote. You could calculate an error factor for your poll, which would be related to the ratio of people polled compared to the actual number of people who will vote. The closer you get to the real number of voters, the more reliable the poll will be.
With 110 million people, chances will still be about 50-50, not 75-25, since both candidates still have a reasonable equal chance. With 11.0000 people, it would be closer to e.g. 60-40 in favour of A, but I haven't done the exact math for this.
Btw, if you take this poll in a shopping centre, you're likely to get a different result than when you would do an online poll. You'd be polling a different audience. This is the demographic influence.

Btw, 750 + 250 equals 1000. Are the last 100 unsure or didn't they have any preference?

A: To make the notation more meaningful, let $N' = W' + B'$ and let $B$ and $W$ denote the true number of black balls and white balls in the box, respectively.
We need to count the number of ways in which there can be more white balls than black balls out of the $N$ balls where there are at least $W'$ white balls and $B'$ black balls. We then divide this by the number of ways to put black balls and white balls in the box where there are at least $W'$ white balls and $B'$ black balls.
To find the first value, we have to select $N-N'=N-(W'+B')$ balls, with the condition that there are more white balls than black balls in the end. So the condition we require is that $W \geq \textrm{ceil}(N/2)$. There are $N-\textrm{floor}(N/2) = \textrm{ceil}(N/2)$ ways to fill a box with the required number of white balls. Supposing that the number of white balls is at least $W'$, there are $\textrm{ceil}(N/2)-W' +1$ ways to do this.
Now we count the number of ways to put black and white balls in the box, with $W'$ of the balls being white and $B'$ of the balls being black. Suppose we've already put in these $N'$ balls, then we can but between $0$ and $N-N'$ more white balls in and fill the rest with black balls. So there are $N-N' +1$ ways to do this.
This gives us the probability:
$$
\frac{\textrm{ceil}(N/2)-W'+1}{N-N'+1}
$$


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text:
Scrubbird
Scrubbirds are shy, secretive, ground-dwelling birds of the family Atrichornithidae. There are just two species. The rufous scrubbird is rare and very restricted in its range, and the noisy scrubbird is so rare that until 1961 it was thought to be extinct. Both are native to Australia.
The scrubbird family is ancient and is understood to be most closely related to the lyrebirds, and probably also the bowerbirds and treecreepers. All four families originated with the great corvid radiation of the Australia-New Guinea region.
The population of the noisy scrubbird was estimated at 40 to 45 birds in 1962. Conservation efforts succeeded in increasing the population to around 400 birds by the mid-1980s, and they have subsequently been reintroduced to several sites, but remain endangered. As of 2002, the population had recovered to around 1,200 birds.
Noisy scrubbird (Atrichornis clamosus)
Class: Aves
Order: Passeriformes
Family: Atrichornithidae
Stejneger, 1885
Genus: Atrichornis
Atrichornis rufescens
Atrichornis clamosus
Birds of both species are about the same size as a common starling (roughly 20 cm long) and cryptically coloured in drab browns and blacks. They occupy dense undergrowth—the rufous scrubbird in temperate rain forests near the Queensland-New South Wales border, the noisy scrubbird in heaths and scrubby gullies in coastal Western Australia—and are adept at scuttling mouse-like under cover to avoid notice.[1] They run fast, but their flight is feeble.
The males' calls, however, are powerful:[1] ringing and metallic, with a ventriloquial quality, so loud as to be heard from a long distance in heavy scrub and almost painful at close range. Females build a domed nest close to the ground and take sole responsibility for raising the young.
Species of Atrichornithidae
Atrichornis rufescens Rufous scrubbird north-eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland
Atrichornis clamosus Noisy scrubbird east of Albany in Western Australia
^ a b Smith. G.T. (1991). Forshaw, Joseph (ed.). Encyclopaedia of Animals: Birds. London: Merehurst Press. p. 170. ISBN 1-85391-186-0.
1867 in birding and ornithology
Birds described in 1867 include short-tailed finch, Mascarene coot (subfossil, Tongatapu rail (known only from brief descriptions of a specimen, now lost and a painting) Drakensberg rockjumper, Darwin's nothura, yellow-shouldered grosbeak, helmeted honeyeater, rufous scrubbird,
Death of Prince Maximilian of Wied-Neuwied
Death of Prideaux John Selby
Death of John MacGillivray
Death of Filippo de Filippi
Alphonse Milne-Edwards Recherches anatomiques et paléontologiques pour servir à l'histoire des oiseaux fossiles de la France.1867-71 Online at Gallica Bibliothèque nationale de France
Foundation of Museo Civico di Storia Naturale di GenovaExpeditions
1865–1868 Magenta circumnavigation of the globe Italian expedition that made important scientific observations in South America.Ongoing events
John Gould The birds of Australia; Supplement 1851-69. 1 vol. 81 plates; Artists: J. Gould and H. C. Richter; Lithographer: H. C. Richter
John Gould The birds of Asia; 1850-83 7 vols. 530 plates, Artists: J. Gould, H. C. Richter, W. Hart and J. Wolf; Lithographers:H. C. Richter and W. Hart
Don Merton
Donald Vincent Merton (22 February 1939 – 10 April 2011) was a New Zealand conservationist best known for saving the black robin from extinction. He also discovered the lek breeding system of the kakapo.When Don Merton began his work, as a conservationist Kakapo were believed to be extinct, but about 20 years into his career a small population of Kakapo were found on a semi-remote national park in mainland New Zealand, however, it was several months before they finally found a female, and soon after they had discovered a surprise, a female with a well feed chick a few weeks old. Don and his crew wanted to relocate all of the rediscovered Kakapo to off shore Codfish island, however the New Zealand's Department of Conservation only gave him permission to relocate 20. Fortunately though, despite this the Kakapo population has steadily recovered (as of 2019 there are 147 mature adult Kakapo, and the 2019 season has produced 181 eggs and 34 chicks so far, but not all are likely to survive due to problems with in breeding- lack of genetic diversity.) But thanks to technological advances in GENOME Mapping tools like CRISPR, scientists have successfully mapped all of the 147 Kakapos' genomes, and in the near future it may be possible to edit the Genomes of an egg to allow for a higher survival rate among newly hatched chicks.
Until his retirement in April 2005, Merton was a senior member of the New Zealand Department of Conservation's Threatened Species Section, within the Research, Development & Improvement Division, Terrestrial Conservation Unit, and of the Kakapo Management Group. He has had a long involvement in wildlife conservation, specialized in the management of endangered species since he completed a traineeship with the New Zealand Wildlife Service (NZWS) in 1960.
List of birds by common name
In this list of birds by common name, a total of 9,722 extant and recently extinct bird species are recognised, belonging to a total of 204 families.
List of birds of Australia
This is a list of the wild birds found in Australia including its outlying islands and territories, but excluding the Australian Antarctic Territory. The outlying islands covered include: Christmas, Cocos (Keeling), Ashmore, Torres Strait, Coral Sea, Lord Howe, Norfolk, Macquarie and Heard/McDonald. The list includes introduced species, common vagrants and recently extinct species. It excludes extirpated introductions, some very rare vagrants (seen once) and species only present in captivity. Nine hundred and fifty extant and extinct species are listed.
There have been three comprehensive accounts: the first was John Goulds Birds of Australia, the second Gregory Mathews, and third was the Handbook of Australian, New Zealand and Antarctic Birds (1990-2006).
The taxonomy followed is from Christidis and Boles, 2008. Their system has been developed over nearly two decades and has strong local support, but deviates in important ways from more generally accepted schemes.
List of birds of Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica
This list is based on the Handbook of Australian, New Zealand and Antarctic Birds list, May 2002 update, with the doubtfuls omitted. It includes the birds of Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica, and the surrounding ocean and subantarctic islands.
Australian call-ups are based on the List of Australian birds.
New Zealand call-ups are based on the List of New Zealand birds.
List of endangered birds
As of May 2019, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) lists 469 endangered avian species. 4.0% of all evaluated avian species are listed as endangered.
No subpopulations of birds have been evaluated by the IUCN.
For a species to be considered endangered by the IUCN it must meet certain quantitative criteria which are designed to classify taxa facing "a very high risk of exintction". An even higher risk is faced by critically endangered species, which meet the quantitative criteria for endangered species. Critically endangered birds are listed separately. There are 634 avian species which are endangered or critically endangered.
Additionally 61 avian species (0.59% of those evaluated) are listed as data deficient, meaning there is insufficient information for a full assessment of conservation status. As these species typically have small distributions and/or populations, they are intrinsically likely to be threatened, according to the IUCN. While the category of data deficient indicates that no assessment of extinction risk has been made for the taxa, the IUCN notes that it may be appropriate to give them "the same degree of attention as threatened taxa, at least until their status can be assessed."This is a complete list of endangered avian species evaluated by the IUCN. Where possible common names for taxa are given while links point to the scientific name used by the IUCN.
Noisy scrubbird
The noisy scrubbird (Atrichornis clamosus) is a species of bird in the family Atrichornithidae. It is endemic to the coastal heaths of south-western Australia (east of Albany).
Rufous scrubbird
The rufous scrubbird (Atrichornis rufescens) is a bird species in the family Atrichornithidae. It is endemic to Australia. Two subspecies are recognized: the nominate A. r. rufescens, and A. r. ferrieri.
Waychinicup National Park
Waychinicup National Park is in Western Australia, 404 kilometres (251 mi) southeast of Perth and 65 kilometres (40 mi) east of Albany. The park is bordered by the Southern Ocean to the south, Mount Manypeaks Nature Reserve to the east, and agricultural land to the north. Its coastline runs between Normans Beach and Cheynes Beach, near Bremer Bay. Bald Island Nature Reserve is located offshore nearby. The park offers and array of landscapes, from the rugged coast to boulder-strewn hilltops. Tree-filled, deeply-incised valleys have freshwater streams flowing through them, with moss-covered boulders. Facilities provided include a camping area and bush toilet near the inlet of the Waychinicup River.


text:
The Roar's new podcast: Game of Codes
Game of Codes is The Roar's brand new multi-sport podcast.
Why away Test victories are becoming the new norm
buviwrites	new author
8th January, 2019
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According to Indian captain Virat Kohli, the series win against Australia is better than the country's 2011 World Cup win.
When asked by the press about his most emotional moment in cricket after India's first-ever win in Australian land, his exact words were: "I would say this one because this is my third tour here and I have seen how difficult it is to win here."
And that's how an away Test series win tastes, especially when it comes against a country like Australia. India needed 71 years for this win. It is a truly historic win.
India now has only South Africa to beat outside India.
Final outrage valid, but also a veneer for the bitter
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Yes, the Australian team is without the service of their two best batsmen, Steve Smith and David Warner, but the way the Indians dominated in all departments in this series must have pleased Indian fans more than the win itself.
Furthermore, if the Australian team has to depend on two players who are already 30-plus for their wins at home, it's a bigger concern than the loss itself.
Coming back to the away Test victories, other teams that have enjoyed the same taste of joy, and very recently, are New Zealand and England in their wins against Pakistan and Sri Lanka respectively.
Australia's loss was only the 20th time a top-seven-ranked Test team has been defeated at home since 2011. So what's the sudden rush of teams winning Tests in foreign lands all about? I can think of three reasons behind the emerging trend.
1. A decrease in drawn Test matches
The number of drawn Test matches has drastically declined over previous decades. For instance, looking over the last four decades in Test cricket:
in the 1980s 244 of 532 matches were drawn (45.86 per cent);
in the 2000s 228 of 928 matches were drawn (24.56 per cent); and
since 2010 162 of 792 matches were drawn (20.45 per cent).
The fewest drawn five-day Test matches came just last year, in 2018.
The number of runs scored in a single day during a Test has increased considerably too thanks to the Australian team of the late 2000s, which instigated the culture of scoring 300-plus in the opening days of the Test matches. The increase in run rates can mean only one thing: a decreased chance of a draw.
Fewer drawn matches could be caused by many other reasons and is a huge topic in itself, but ultimately it means more matches end decisively.
(AP Photo/James Elsby)
2. ICC's rating of pitches
People have this notion that past wickets were tough to play on. Nostalgia makes people think that the past was a great time in cricket. But that's not true.
Current pitches have more sporting nature than the old times thanks to ICC's strict reviews on the Test pitches. We rarely see big totals and single-sided games in Test matches in recent times.
That could also be because cricket boards nowadays need more Test matches to end in results rather than draws in order to brings crowds into stadiums. Even the ICC believes that only the results and a fine balance between bat and ball can help Test matches survive.
No news in cricket has been bigger in the recent past than an away Test series wins, as it endorses the game in the right way. This is working really well for the game, not to mention, while four-days Test matches are not so far.
(Julian Smith/AAP)
3. Influence of T20 domestic leagues
A discussion of this topic cannot be completed without mentioning the influence that T20s is having on Test cricket. Today players from non-Asian countries have the luxury of playing more games on the Subcontinent than ever before thanks to the abundance of T20 leagues in Asia.
With players from almost every cricketing nation involved in domestic leagues around the globe, they now find it easier to adapt to alien conditions. For instance, Kane Williamson's average of 77.20, with one 100 and two 50s in the recent UAE Test series against Pakistan can be credited to his IPL experience.
Wrapping it up, more results in Test cricket can only be a good thing for the game, especially when the ICC has already started to believe T20s is the route to growing the game.
That's why away Test series wins are the best thing that can happen to Test cricket and its fans – they bring out the best among the teams and players.
David Schout
Has the dust settled yet on the World Cup final? Or is it still swirling around Lord's since Martin Guptill's fruitless final ball dive unsettled the sloped earth?
Ronan O'Connell
Australia were already underdogs for the upcoming Ashes but their task looks even tougher now given the hot form of key English players and the confidence and momentum earned by their World Cup win.
Martin Guptill leans forward, eyes fixed on the ball, a flick of the wrist.
Oscar Samios
England's dramatic World Cup final win over New Zealand is rightly being praised as one of the greatest ODIs ever played.
Scott Bailey
The ICC have refused to be drawn into the furore surrounding the overthrows rule and whether England were incorrectly awarded an extra run in the World Cup final.
New Zealand were robbed in the World Cup final
New Zealand were beaten by the rules, not by England.


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Blood Sail: The Assassin's Creed game you won't get to play
CMGE's Ringo Zhu details the company's plan to make Chinese games using Western IP like Assassin's Creed and The Walking Dead
China Mobile Games and Entertainment Group knows there's an appetite for Western brands in the Chinese mobile market, but the way it's looking to meet that appetite is evolving.
After publishing Gameloft's Minion Rush and Disney's Star Wars Commander, CMGE is trying a different approach. It recently signed deals with Ubisoft and Skybound Entertainment to make original mobile games based on their hit franchises, Assassin's Creed and The Walking Dead, respectively.
Assassin's Creed: Blood Sail will be a mobile 3D action RPG that CMGE will publish in Greater China. As can be seen from the promo art below, it will boast a very different look from previous entries in the series. As for The Walking Dead game, it will be a mobile shooter that CMGE will publish globally.
Assassin's Creed: Blood Sail is only planned for release in the Greater China market.
At last month's Montreal International Game Summit, CMGE director of business development for North America Ringo Zhu sat down with GamesIndustry.biz to talk about the company's plans and why they decided it was better to create new games for those IP than to repurpose existing titles.
"From a Chinese publisher's perspective, some Western titles can work very well in China, but some others may not," Zhu said. "For the Chinese market, we want to build up something tailored for the local market and audiences."
A look at what's worked best in China provides some insight as to why CMGE might prefer making their own games using licensed IP as opposed to importing existing titles.
"If you compare the iOS top grossing chart in China with the one in the US, you can see it's very different," Zhu said. In China's top 10 or 20, the big winners are MMORPG and card games. Those account for about 70% of the top 20 chart, and all of those are developed by Chinese companies. The only exception is Hearthstone from Blizzard... If you look into the US charts, it's much more diversified. You can see match three games, strategy games, and slot games. There's AR like Pokemon Go, and CCG like Clash Royale, sports games, fighting games like Marvel: Contest of Champions and things like that.
"I think for mid-core and hardcore games, Chinese local games really dominate the market, because Chinese companies have a deeper and better understanding of the Chinese market and the player. This is very important for the midcore/hardcore market. They can tailor the games for the Chinese in terms of gameplay, art style, and monetization."
Sometimes, it might be technical reasons that keep a game from being a good candidate for localization, as Zhu noted titles requiring a large download of 1.5GB or more wouldn't work well for the Chinese market. Other times it's a matter of local aesthetics.
"If you play a Chinese RPG game, it looks so different from a Western game," Zhu said. "The figures and characters are slimmer, and the faces are so beautiful. That's the Chinese taste. It's not a realistic style; it's more of a fantasy style, but the Chinese love that."
Monetizaton is also more complex and comprehensive in successful Chinese games, Zhu said, with games often building multiple systems around in-game items that can be collected, leveled up, forged, inlayed with gems or runes. Layer that on top of monthly VIP payment schemes and the rest of the hooks common among even Western midcore games and Zhu said, "Once you get in, it's really hard to get out."
Even if the top performing games in China tend to be made by and for that market, the growing appeal of Western brands is working in CMGE's favor.
"I think Western brands, especially American brands, play a very big role in the Chinese market," Zhu said. "Because China is more and more open, and the economy is continuously booming up, the Chinese definitely have a very strong and bigger and bigger appetite for Western content."
Zhu said the US is culturally upstream of China, something made evident by the growing success of American movies, music, TV dramas, and comics in the country. He pointed to China's outsized representation in the box office returns for recent movies in The Fast and The Furious and Captain America franchises as examples. (And while Zhu didn't mention it, Warcraft may be the clearest recent example of the trend.)
CMGE's plans to publish its game based on The Walking Dead around the world could provide an interesting litmus test about how well content created for the Chinese market can perform internationally. Zhu admits that bringing games that were successful in China to the West has been a difficult task in the past--he pointed to Tencent's WeFire and Netease's Journey to the West as two previous attempts that might not have paid off as hoped--but it's still the goal.
"Our philosophy is we are looking for games that can be successful in both the West and the East, not just for one specific territory. But if we tailor that to the Chinese market, can the game go back to the Western countries? I think we're still in the process of finding the best balance and solutions."
While CMGE is building its own Assassin's Creed and Walking Dead games for the Chinese market, it's by no means ruling out the possibility of Western-developed titles succeeding there. Zhu said he's actively looking for high quality mobile, VR, and HTML5 games from the West to publish in the Chinese market. He acknowledged that HTML5 doesn't have the same buzz it had a couple years ago, but said CMGE has a simple reason for pursuing it.
"It's profitable," Zhu said. "In China we also have many studios doing VR, but how's the quality, and how's the product they have? Probably not very good, but they can attract investment," Zhu said. "I think VR still has quite a long way to go to be profitable. Right now, the developer can get compensation from the platform holder, but how many end users are willing to pay for the download or in-game purchases? Not many, not many. But HTML5 games are profitable already. The situation for HTML5 is very similar to mobile games, but I think the hurdle is even lower. The cost to make an HTML5 game is cheaper than a mobile game."
CMGE published its first Chinese HTML5 game--an MMORPG, naturally--a few months ago, and Zhu said it has already grossed more than $3 million.
"It's not as high as a [hit] MMORPG in China on a mobile platform, but it's not bad," Zhu said. "So I think it will boom up and in 2017, it'll be even better. That's why we're looking for HTML5 games from Western studios."
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Former PlayStation, Xbox, Ubisoft and EA exec leaves after five years
By Christopher Dring
Nintendo Switch accounted for 87% of consoles sold in Japan last year | Japan Annual Report
Famitsu/KADOKAWA data shows that Nintendo held almost 50% of boxed game sales in 2020


At ADP, we recognize deserving publisher and partner members for their outstanding contribution to the Yellow Pages industry through our special awards program. We host various awards for different criteria throughout the year.
Recognition of the best of the best in the Yellow Pages' industry.
Notable or important contribution to the Yellow Pages industry.
Recognition and appreciation of exceptional lifetime contributions.
A list of all our Gold Book Award winners in the past year.
Heartiest congratulations to all our winners!


Hey Burro Fans! Check this out!
Hey Burro Fans! Don't forget some simple things to be great spectators!
The State B is a very exciting time for all involved. This can bring out the good and the bad in the basketball fan.
* It is an expectation for there to be an administrator in proximity of the student sections during your game.
* All student sections will be at opposite ends of the court - no one is on the floor.
* Signs that are directed at the other team or inappropriate will not be allowed and could result in removal.
* Shirts are required of all spectators.
* Chants directed to the other teams- especially specific players or kids will not be allowed.
* Noise makers will not be allowed — this includes wonderful things like beating a sign or stick against the floor.
* Lights - Blinking or laser-types will not be allowed.
Sportsmanship is something we take very seriously at the NDHSAA events and will address it when out of line.
Good luck and have a great tournament!


Contemporary dancers and orchestral musicians look set to be given the same exemption to the new, controversial points-based visa system as ballet performers.
The Migration Advisory Committee has recommended to government that the two sectors are both classified as "shortage occupations", a move which will make it easier for foreign artists working in these areas to come and perform in the UK.
This concession had already been extended to classical ballet dancers and the contemporary dance world has long called for similar measures to be introduced for the sector. "The points-based system, including the shortage occupation list, has to operate for the benefit of United Kingdom workers, especially given the current economic climate," said the chair of the MAC, professor David Metcalf.
However, the Musicians' Union has said it is against any exemption being applied to orchestral musicians.
John Smith, MU general secretary, said: "We are not opposed to musicians coming into the UK to work under certain circumstances. For example, current migration rules already allow for musicians to come into the country if they have international status, or for key orchestral roles.


* * Note: has bracelet to set (TIFFANY bracelet). If you want to purchase the two pieces, we inform you beforehand to deactivate the shipping costs on ETSY, which will run to our account.
Fuchsia sesame jasper Beads and Black onyx, with silver beads and tassel to set with fuchsia shades tassel.
-Beads: Fuchsia sesame jasper (8 mm) and Black onyx (8mm).
Total length of tasseled necklace: 50 cm.
It brings happiness alleviating worries and prosperity. Objective thoughts. Help in decision making.
It gives strength and perseverance.
Zodiac signs: Leo, Sagittarius and Capricorn.


"A Report of the Amsterdam Forum on the Care of the Live Kidney Donor: Data and Medical Guidelines." Transplantation 79, no. 2S (2005): S53-S66.
Barr, M. L., J. Belghiti, F. G. Villamil, E. A. Pomfret, D. S. Sutherland, R. W. Gruessner, A. N. Langnas, and F. L. Delmonico. "A Report of the Vancouver Forum on the Care of the Live Organ Donor: Lung, Liver, Pancreas, and Intestine Data and Medical Guidelines." Transplantation 81, no. 10 (2006): 1373.


While we are getting blasted with winter and dreaming of warmer days, we can at least enjoy the comforts of hot, delicious meals that hit the spot. Chili is a great meal to make during the winter, particularly because it's so versatile. You can make chili with meat or keep it plant-based, while adding in whatever veggies, beans and/or legumes you enjoy. Making chili is also a great opportunity to clean out the fridge with foods that are soon on their way out.
I have just returned from some fun in the sun in Jamaica for my cousins wedding. I know I have no right to complain, but it has been unsettling to come back to 15-20 cm of now. Before I left I was still wearing ankle boots and a fall coat, and now I think it is finally time to whip out the winter boots and coat.