text:
Q: How to take the sum of a float list? My code
final = replace.split()
for word in final:
    if word >= "0":
        if word <= "9":
            add = (word.split())
            floats = [float(x) for x in add]
            print(floats)

It gives me
[3236.789]
[4.3]
[6.7]
[5.2]

when I use print(sum(floats)) it gives me the same thing without brackets.
3236.789
4.3
6.7
5.2

What am I doing wrong? How do I get the total of these numbers?

A: Each of those is a single value in a list. It probably makes more sense to create an empty list outside of the loop and append to it. Judging from your output, I think your list comprehension is unnecessary. Try something like this:
nums = []
for word in replace.split():
    # Do the checks if you must
    nums.extend(float(word))

print(sum(nums))

It may be really simple, but it might help to add a few print statements throughout the logic of your code. Try print(word) after the for loop to see if your data in the state you expect. I say this because judging from your code and output there appear to be several unnecessary operations taking place.
Also, floats is a bad name for a variable; it's too similar to the builtin float which you also make use of. Same goes for replace as it is a string method.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Bagels, like everything else in this country, have a long and varied history! One part of that past is one not known to many a New Yorker: in the early 1900s bagels were made under the strict control of the Local 338 Union in Manhattan.
The bagel union was a federation of around 300 bagel makers in the New York and New Jersey area, with 36 bakeries in the group and membership limited to bagel professionals and their sons.
The "New York bagel" that became the gold standard dates back to this time, when bagels were still only about 3 ounces by weight, baked in the early mornings, and looped in batches of five dozen at a time, to be hung on the doorknobs of businesses that ordered them.
The Local 338 only had a reign of about 50 years; the advent of the bagel machine in the 1960s undid the union, as any bakery became able to form bagels at much faster rates.
As the bagel market grew, so did the bagel. The union's strict adherence to the 3 ounce maximum went out the window, and bagels doubled in size, with the average bagel of today weighing in at 6-7 ounces.
Some bakers, like New Yorker Bagels, offer "mini bagels" now that are more the size of the original – with the same wonderful taste, texture and variety available as the larger version.
As to additions to bagel dough, chain bagel shops have popularized the seemingly inexhaustible array of bagel flavors. When many of the bagelries of today began baking bagels, there was only plain, salt, poppy and sesame.
Most bagel bakers would make 10 plain bagels for every other bagel – but with demand for variety, that has changed. You can now enjoy whole wheat, pumpernickel, cinnamon raisin, cranberry, energy and many more bagel flavors.
Bagels may no longer be a source of union jobs, but New York's bagel with a schmear is still one of the best loved foods, and more bagels are being sold every year on the streets of New York and beyond!


• The online retailer Amazon.com maintains a side business of operating massive Internet-capacity "cloud" farms and contracts out space to some of the world's largest entities, including U.S. government agencies.
In a case brought to light in October by a U.S. Court of Claims ruling, Amazon had won its bid against IBM for a cloud contract with the CIA, but had gone a step further by actually improving the CIA's system and implementing a better plan.
In the bizarre world of government contracts, that created a "fairness" problem, as IBM argued that its rights were violated because the specified contract work was no longer exactly what was being done (i.e., the client's work was being done better).
• Update: Perhaps thousands of Baghdad residents have been killed by bomb couriers who had passed through supposedly secure checkpoints that were "equipped" with useless ADE-651 bomb "detectors," but the devices were surely to be history following the April fraud conviction of the British scam artist who made $75 million selling them.
However, despite the debunking evidence brought out at trial, Iraqi police continue to use them, according to an October dispatch in London's The Independent, with the September death toll at nearly 1,000 from bombers who passed through checkpoints, past silent ADE-651s.


Use of Mindfulness Sitting Meditation in Chinese American Women in Treatment of Cancer.
Nanomechanical analysis of cells from cancer patients.
Exercise Behaviors in Breast Cancer Survivors in Taiwan.
A Systematic Review of Complementary and Alternative Medicine Interventions for the Management of Cancer-Related Fatigue.
In vitro investigation on the magnetic thermochemotherapy mediated by magnetic nanoparticles combined with methotrexate for breast cancer treatment.
A review on the use of magnetic fields and ultrasound for non-invasive cancer treatment.
Mitochondrial Dysfunction and Disturbed Coherence: Gate to Cancer.
Music therapy in supportive cancer care.
Physical exercise and therapy in terminally ill cancer patients: a retrospective feasibility analysis.
Mindfulness-based intervention for teenagers with cancer: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.
Cancer and radiation therapy: current advances and future directions.
Genetic and lifestyle influence on telomere length and subsequent risk of colon cancer in a case control study.
Effects of Qigong Exercise on Upper Limb Lymphedema and Blood Flow in Survivors of Breast Cancer: A Pilot Study.
Integrative and complementary therapies for patients with advanced cancer.


text:
Q: Can't center js clock properly I recently started self studying some HTML/CSS/Js, one of my first projects was a clock. I was following a tutorial on how to make it and, in the end, everything seemed to work properly but instead of it being centered, it is too far on the right and I can't seem to find a way to fix the position.
image

var hour = document.getElementById("hour");
var minute = document.getElementById("minute");
var seconds = document.getElementById("seconds");

var clock = setInterval(
  function time() {
    var date_now = new Date();
    var hr = date_now.getHours();
    var min = date_now.getMinutes();
    var sec = date_now.getSeconds();

    if (hr < 10) {
      hr = "0" + hr;
    }
    if (min < 10) {
      min = "0" + min;
    }
    if (sec < 10) {
      sec = "0" + sec;
    }

    hour.textContent = hr;
    minute.textContent = min;
    seconds.textContent = sec;

  }, 100
)
*,
*::before,
*:after {
  padding: 0;
  margin: 0;
  box-sizing: border-box;
}

body {
  height: 100vh;
  background: linear-gradient( 135deg, #8052ec, #d161ff);
}

.clock {
  width: 550px;
  height: 150px;
  position: absolute;
  transform: translate(-50% -50%);
  top: 50%;
  left: 50%;
  display: flex;
  align-items: center;
  justify-content: space-between;
}

.clock div {
  position: relative;
  background-color: white;
  height: 100%;
  width: 150px;
  display: flex;
  align-items: center;
  justify-content: center;
  font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
  font-size: 60px;
  color: black;
  border-radius: 5px;
  box-shadow: 0 15px 30px rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);
  letter-spacing: 3px;
}

.clock span {
  font-weight: bolder;
  font-size: 60px;
  color: white;
}
<!DOCTYPE html>

  <meta charset="UTF-8">
  <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="styles.css">
  <title>Document</title>

00

    :

00

    :

00

A: You are missing a comma in your transform property declaration.
transform: translate(-50% -50%);

should be
transform: translate(-50%, -50%);

Demo:

var hour = document.getElementById("hour");
var minute = document.getElementById("minute");
var seconds = document.getElementById("seconds");

var clock = setInterval(
  function time() {
    var date_now = new Date();
    var hr = date_now.getHours();
    var min = date_now.getMinutes();
    var sec = date_now.getSeconds();

    if (hr < 10) {
      hr = "0" + hr;
    }
    if (min < 10) {
      min = "0" + min;
    }
    if (sec < 10) {
      sec = "0" + sec;
    }

    hour.textContent = hr;
    minute.textContent = min;
    seconds.textContent = sec;

  }, 100
)
*,
*::before,
*:after {
  padding: 0;
  margin: 0;
  box-sizing: border-box;
}

body {
  height: 100vh;
  background: linear-gradient( 135deg, #8052ec, #d161ff);
}

.clock {
  width: 550px;
  height: 150px;
  position: absolute;
  transform: translate(-50%, -50%);
  top: 50%;
  left: 50%;
  display: flex;
  align-items: center;
  justify-content: space-between;
}

.clock div {
  position: relative;
  background-color: white;
  height: 100%;
  width: 150px;
  display: flex;
  align-items: center;
  justify-content: center;
  font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
  font-size: 60px;
  color: black;
  border-radius: 5px;
  box-shadow: 0 15px 30px rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);
  letter-spacing: 3px;
}

.clock span {
  font-weight: bolder;
  font-size: 60px;
  color: white;
}
<!DOCTYPE html>

  <meta charset="UTF-8">
  <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="styles.css">
  <title>Document</title>

00

    :

00

    :

00


text:
\section[Introduction]{Introduction}
R \citep{RStats}, being one of the most popular programming languages in academia, has many forecasting-related packages, implementing a variety of approaches. Among the well known ones, is the \texttt{forecast} package \citep{Hyndman2008}, which implements classical statistical forecasting models, such as ETS \citep[Error, Trend, Seasonality model based on the single source of error state space framework underlying exponential smoothing,][]{Hyndman2002, Hyndman2008b}, Theta \citep{Assimakopoulos2000}, TBATS \citep{DeLivera2011} and others. Some of these functions have also been implemented in \texttt{fable} package \citep{RFable}. It also implements the \texttt{auto.arima()} function for automatic selection of ARIMA orders. There are other packages implementing ARIMA, including \texttt{stats} \citep{RStats}, \texttt{robustarima} \citep{RRobustarima}, \texttt{tfarima} \citep{RTfarima} and \texttt{fable} \citep{RFable}. All these packages implement ready-to-use functions for specific situations and have been proven to work very well, but they do not have flexibility necessary for research purposes in the area of dynamic models and do not present a holistic approach to univariate forecasting models.

In order to address these issues, back in 2016, I developed a \texttt{smooth} package, which implemented models in the Single Source of Error framework and introduced flexibility allowing to conduct advanced experiments in the area of univariate forecasting models (e.g. using advanced losses, introducing explanatory variables, changing structures of models etc). This paper explains the main idea behind the \texttt{smooth} functions, summarises what they are created for and how to use them in forecasting and analytics.

\section[Single Source of Error]{Single Source of Error framework}
The main model underlying the \texttt{smooth} functions is explained in detail in \cite{SvetunkovAdam} monograph. It builds upon \cite{Hyndman2008b} model. Here we summarise only the main ideas. We start with the most popular pure additive model, underlying the majority of functions of \texttt{smooth} package \citep{RSmooth}. This is formulated as:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive}
  \begin{aligned}
    {y}_{t} = &\mathbf{w}^\prime \mathbf{v}_{t-\mathbf{l}} + \epsilon_t \\
    \mathbf{v}_{t} = &\mathbf{F} \mathbf{v}_{t-\mathbf{l}} + \mathbf{g} \epsilon_t
  \end{aligned},
\end{equation}
where $\mathbf{w}$ is the measurement vector, $\mathbf{F}$ is the transition matrix, $\mathbf{g}$ is the persistence vector, $\mathbf{v}_{t-\mathbf{l}}$ is the vector of lagged components and $\mathbf{l}$ is the vector of lags, defining how each of the components of $\mathbf{v}_t$ needs to be shifted in time. Unlike the conventional state space model of \cite{Hyndman2008b}, the one implemented in \texttt{smooth} relies on lagged components rather than their transition. In the conventional case, the vector of states $\mathbf{v}_t$ always depends on the value of the vector on the previous observation, where the transition of signal happens from one component to another according to the matrix $\mathbf{F}$. Both the conventional and the proposed frameworks underlie exactly the same ETS and ARIMA models, but our approach simplifies calculations. For example, consider the ETS(A,A,A) model, which is written as \citep{Hyndman2008b}:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:ETSADAMAAA}
  \begin{aligned}
    y_{t} = & l_{t-1} & + & b_{t-1} & + & s_{t-m} & + & \epsilon_t \\
    l_t = & l_{t-1} & + & b_{t-1} & & & + & \alpha \epsilon_t \\
    b_t = & & & b_{t-1} & & & + & \beta \epsilon_t \\
    s_t = & & & & & s_{t-m} & + & \gamma \epsilon_t
  \end{aligned}.
\end{equation}
where $y_t$ is the actual value, $l_{t-1}$ is the level, $b_{t-1}$ is the trend, $s_{t-m}$ is the seasonal component with periodicity $m$ (e.g. 12 for months of year data, implying that something is repeated every 12 months), $\alpha$, $\beta$ and $\gamma$ are the smoothing parameters and $\epsilon_t$ is an i.i.d. error term. According to \eqref{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive}, the model \eqref{eq:ETSADAMAAA} can be written as:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:ETSADAMAAAMatrixForm}
  \begin{aligned}
    y_t & = \begin{pmatrix} 1 & 1 & 1 \end{pmatrix}
    \begin{pmatrix}
      l_{t-1} \\ b_{t-1} \\ s_{t-m}
    \end{pmatrix} +
    \epsilon_t \\
    \begin{pmatrix}
      l_t \\ b_t \\ s_t
    \end{pmatrix} & =
    \begin{pmatrix}
      1 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 1
    \end{pmatrix}
    \begin{pmatrix}
      l_{t-1} \\ b_{t-1} \\ s_{t-m}
    \end{pmatrix} +
    \begin{pmatrix}
      \alpha \\ \beta \\ \gamma
    \end{pmatrix}
    \epsilon_t ,
  \end{aligned}
\end{equation}
while in the \citep{Hyndman2008b} form it would be:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:ETSADAMAAAConventional}
  \begin{aligned}
    y_t & = \begin{pmatrix} 1 & 1 & 1 & 0 & \dots & 0 \end{pmatrix}
    \begin{pmatrix}
      l_{t-1} \\ b_{t-1} \\ s_{1,t-1} \\ s_{2,t-1} \\ \vdots \\ s_{m,t-1}
    \end{pmatrix} +
    \epsilon_t \\
    \begin{pmatrix}
      l_{t} \\ b_{t} \\ s_{1,t} \\ \vdots \\ s_{m,t}
    \end{pmatrix} & =
    \begin{pmatrix}
      1 & 1 & \mathbf{0}^\prime_{m-1} & 0 \\ 0 & 1 & \mathbf{0}^\prime_{m-1} & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & \mathbf{0}^\prime_{m-1} & 1 \\ \mathbf{0}_{m-1} & \mathbf{0}_{m-1} & \mathbf{I}_{m-1} & \mathbf{0}_{m-1}
    \end{pmatrix}
    \begin{pmatrix}
      l_{t-1} \\ b_{t-1} \\ s_{1,t-1} \\ \vdots \\ s_{m,t-1}
    \end{pmatrix} +
    \begin{pmatrix}
      \alpha \\ \beta \\ \gamma \\ 0 \\ \vdots \\ 0
    \end{pmatrix}
    \epsilon_t .
  \end{aligned}
\end{equation}
Because of the size of matrices in \eqref{eq:ETSADAMAAAConventional} and the recursive nature of the model, applying it on seasonal data with $m$ higher than 24 becomes computationally expensive due to the multiplication of large matrices. The problem becomes even more serious when a model with multiple seasonal components is needed \citep[see, for example,][]{Taylor2003a}, because it then introduces several seasonal indices, increasing to the size of matrices in \eqref{eq:ETSADAMAAAConventional} even further. This issue is resolved in \eqref{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive}, because the introduction of additional components leads to increase of dimensionality proportional to the number of added components. Note that any extension of the conventional state space model results in the increase of its dimensionality, inevitably leading to computational difficulties. This is why the proposed model \eqref{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive} is more viable, flexible and this is why it was used in the development of \texttt{smooth} functions.

There is also a more general state space form, covering not only pure additive, but also pure multiplicative and mixed models. This is discussed in Chapter 4 of \cite{Hyndman2008b} and in Section 7.1 of \cite{SvetunkovAdam}. We do not discuss this model here but only point out that the multiplicative and mixed ETS models implemented in \texttt{smooth} are based on it.

Furthermore, \cite{Snyder1985} showed that ARIMA model can also be written in the SSOE state space form, this was then discussed in more detail in Chapter 11 of \cite{Hyndman2008b} and afterwards used by \cite{Svetunkov2019} to implement ARIMA in (\texttt{ssarima()} and \texttt{auto.ssarima()} functions from the \texttt{smooth} package) and apply it in supply chain context. Building upon that, \cite{SvetunkovAdam} implemented ARIMA (Chapter 9) in the state space form \eqref{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive}. So, the proposed framework does not stop on ETS models, it can be extended, for example, to include a combination of ETS+ARIMA.

The final piece of the puzzle is the regression model. It can also be represented in the SSOE state space form \eqref{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive}, as, for example, discussed in \cite{Koehler2012}. This is discussed in Chapter 9 of \cite{Hyndman2008b} and Chapter 10 of \cite{SvetunkovAdam}.

All of this means that the state space model \eqref{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive} presents a unified framework for working with ETS, ARIMA, regression and any of their combinations. This is implemented in \texttt{adam()} function of \texttt{smooth} package \citep{RSmooth}, supporting the following functionality:
\begin{enumerate}
    \item ETS;
    \item ARIMA;
    \item Regression;
    \item Time-varying parameters regression;
    \item Combination of (1), (2) and either (3), or (4);
    \item Automatic selection/combination of states of ETS;
    \item Automatic order selection for ARIMA;
    \item Variables selection for regression;
    \item Normal and non-normal distributions of the error term;
    \item Automatic selection of the most suitable distribution;
    \item Multiple seasonality;
    \item Occurrence part of the model to handle zeroes in data (in case of intermittent demand);
    \item Modelling scale of distribution \citep[GARCH-style models, see for example,][]{Engle1982};
    \item Handling uncertainty of estimates of parameters;
    \item Forecasting using any of the elements above.
\end{enumerate}
All these topics are covered in \cite{SvetunkovAdam}, so we will not focus on \texttt{adam} function here. However, there are special cases of the model \eqref{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive}, implementing specific functionality in the \texttt{smooth} package. We discuss the most important of them in this paper.

\section{Time series decomposition}
While \texttt{stats} package already implements the classical decomposition function, I have created a new one, which would handle the multiple seasonal data. This is called \texttt{msdecompose()}. It has exactly the same logic as the classical decomposition \citep{Persons1919}, but can be applied to the data with multiple seasonal cycles. A user can define what cycles there are in the data by setting the parameter \texttt{lags}, and choosing the type of seasonality via the parameter \texttt{type}. For example, \texttt{msdecompose()} can be applied to half-hourly electricity demand data \texttt{taylor} from \texttt{forecast} package in the following way:
\begin{verbatim}
    taylorDecomp <- msdecompose(taylor, lags=c(48,336),
                                type="m")
\end{verbatim}
which will result in an object that can be used for further analysis. Producing a plot from it would generate several figures (see documentation for \texttt{plot.smooth()} for details), the most interesting of which, the plot of time series components, is shown in Figure \ref{fig:taylorDecomp}.

\begin{figure}[!htb]
	\centering
	\includegraphics[width=1\textwidth]{Images/taylorDecomp.pdf}
	\caption{Decomposition of multiple seasonal time series according to \texttt{msdecompose()} function.}
	\label{fig:taylorDecomp}
\end{figure}

The classical decomposition does not typically produce clear components -- the residuals in Figure \ref{fig:taylorDecomp} demonstrate the presence of seasonality because the approach assumes that the seasonal components are constant. Nonetheless, it can be a starting point for time series analysis. In \texttt{smooth}, it is used for the initialisation of states of ETS in case of seasonal data and is mainly needed when working with multiple seasonal data. However, if a researcher is interested in forecasting with seasonal decomposition, the function produces the object of the class \texttt{smooth} that supports the \texttt{forecast()} method, producing forecasts for the trend component of the decomposed data and then reconstructing the series based on the estimated seasonal components.

\section{Exponential smoothing} \label{sec:ETS}
Exponential smoothing is one of the most popular forecasting methods used in demand planning \citep{LCFweller2012}. As mentioned earlier, ETS underlies all exponential smoothing methods, and it is considered as an academic standard in forecasting \citep[it has been used in all the major forecasting competitions over the years, including][]{Makridakis2000, Athanasopoulos2011, Makridakis2020, Makridakis2022}. The conventional ETS model, developed by \cite{Hyndman2008b} assumes that the error term follows normal distribution. It is implemented in functions \texttt{ets()} from the \texttt{forecast} package and \texttt{ETS()} from the \texttt{fable}. Their counterpart in \texttt{smooth} package is called \texttt{es()}, but it is based on the state space model \eqref{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive} rather then the conventional one. Furthermore, while \texttt{ets()} supports only 15 ETS models, the \texttt{es()} implements all the theoretically possible 30 ETS models. The function also support fine tuning of parameters of model, allowing setting smoothing parameters values via \texttt{persistence} variable, initial values via \texttt{initial} and seasonal indices via \texttt{initialSeason} and pre-defining the values of parameters for the optimisation via the \texttt{B} parameter. Furthermore, the function supports explanatory variables via the \texttt{xreg} parameter, similar to how it is done in \texttt{arima} function from the \texttt{stats} package, allowing tuning the coefficients for regressors via \texttt{initialX} and selecting the most appropriate ones based on information criteria via the \cite{Sagaert2022} algorithm applied to residuals of the ETS model using the \texttt{regressors} parameter.

In terms of the ETS components selection, the mechanism used by default in \texttt{es()} can be summarised in the following steps:
\begin{enumerate}
    \item Apply ETS(A,N,N) to the data, calculate an information criterion (IC);
    \item Apply ETS(A,N,A) to the data, calculate IC. If it is lower than (1), then this means that there is some seasonal component in the data, move to step (3). Otherwise, go to (4);
    \item Apply ETS(M,N,M) model and calculate IC. If it is lower than the previous one, then the data exhibits multiplicative seasonality. Go to (4);
    \item Fit the model with the additive trend component and the seasonal component selected from the previous steps, which can be either ``N'', ``A'', or ``M''. Calculate IC for the new model and compare it with the best IC so far. If it is lower than the criteria of previously applied models, then there is a trend component in the data. If it is not, then the trend component is not needed;
    \item Form the pool of models based on steps (1) - (4), apply models and select the one with the lowest IC.
\end{enumerate}

This approach for components selection can be called branch-and-bound because instead of going through all possible models, it considers branches of models. For example, if there is no seasonality, then the respective component can be set to ``N'', thus removing the branch of seasonal models and reducing the pool of models to test from 30 to only 10 (including models already tested on the four steps).

Similarly to any other \texttt{smooth} function, \texttt{es()} supports several methods, including \texttt{plot()} for visual diagnostics of model and \texttt{forecast()} for forecasting. To demonstrate how they work, we apply \texttt{es()} to \texttt{AirPassengers} data from the \texttt{datasets} package.
\begin{verbatim}
    AirPassengersETS <- es(AirPassengers, h=12, holdout=TRUE)
\end{verbatim}
In the code above, we have specified the forecast horizon of 12 steps ahead and asked to exclude the last 12 observations from the training of the model, thus creating a test set (holdout) to see how the model performs in that part of the data. We can do diagnostics of the model in order to see if it has any obvious issues that could be resolved:
\begin{verbatim}
    par(mfcol=c(2,2))
    plot(AirPassengersETS, c(1,2,4,6))
\end{verbatim}

\begin{figure}[!htb]
	\centering
	\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{Images/AirPassengersETS.pdf}
	\caption{Diagnostics plots for ETS(A,M,M) model selected automatically on \texttt{AirPassengers} data by \texttt{es()} function.}
	\label{fig:AirPassengersETS}
\end{figure}

The resulting plot is shown in Figure \ref{fig:AirPassengersETS}. We do not aim to resolve the issues of the model in this paper, we merely demonstrate what can be done using \texttt{smooth} functions. The plots allow analysing the residuals for the possible issues related to heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, outliers, wrong specification etc. Fixing the issues can be done by including explanatory variables and/or changing the transformations used in the model. After fixing the potential issues a researcher can produce forecasts from the estimated model, which is done using the \texttt{forecast()} method from \texttt{generics} package \citep{RGenerics}. But unlike the forecasting for the \texttt{ets()} and \texttt{ETS()}, the one from \texttt{smooth} supports several options, allowing choosing between a variety of prediction intervals (see documentation of \texttt{forecast.smooth()} method), allowing to produce one-sided interval (which is useful in case of pure multiplicative models on low-volume data, where the lower bound is typically equal to zero) and generating cumulative forecasts (which is useful in case of safety stock calculation in inventory management). We will use the default values of parameters, producing the parametric prediction interval:
\begin{verbatim}
    plot(forecast(AirPassengersETS, h=12))
\end{verbatim}
The code above will result in the plot in Figure \ref{fig:AirPassengersETSForecast}.

\begin{figure}[!htb]
	\centering
	\includegraphics[width=0.75\textwidth]{Images/AirPassengersETSForecast.pdf}
	\caption{Forecast for \texttt{AirPassengers} data produced by \texttt{es()} function.}
	\label{fig:AirPassengersETSForecast}
\end{figure}

Figure \ref{fig:AirPassengersETSForecast} shows how the selected model fits the data, what point forecast it produces (solid bold blue line in the holdout part) and what prediction intervals it generated (a grey area in the holdout).

Continuing the theme of exponential smoothing, \texttt{smooth} also implements Complex Exponential Smoothing of \cite{Svetunkov2015} via the \texttt{ces()} function, which has the functionality similar to \texttt{es()} and supports the same set of methods.

Finally, as mentioned earlier, \texttt{adam()} implements ETS model as well and supports much more functionality. The main difference between the default ETS in \texttt{adam()} and  \texttt{es()} is that the former supports distributions other than normal and, by default, uses Gamma distribution in case of multiplicative error models.

\section{ARIMA}
Another important model, which is used often in forecasting, is ARIMA \citep{Box1976}. There are several functions implementing ARIMA in SSOE state space form in the \texttt{smooth} package.

The \texttt{ssarima()} (State Space ARIMA) function implements a state space ARIMA in the form discussed in Chapter 11 of \cite{Hyndman2008b}. The function that implements the order selection for State Space ARIMA is called \texttt{auto.ssarima()}. It does not rely on any statistical tests and selects orders based on information criteria. Both the model and the selection mechanism are explained in \cite{Svetunkov2019}.

The \texttt{msarima()} (Multiple Seasonal ARIMA) function relies on the state space model \eqref{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive}, introducing lagged components and thus substantially reducing the size of the transition matrix. This allows applying large multiple seasonal ARIMA models to the data. A thing to note is that because of this, the transition matrix, measurement, and state vectors of this model are formed differently than in \cite{Hyndman2008b}. In a general case, they are \citep[][Chapter 9]{SvetunkovAdam}:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:ADAMARIMAMatrices}
  \begin{aligned}
    \mathbf{F} = \begin{pmatrix} \eta_1 & \eta_1 & \dots & \eta_1 \\ \eta_2 & \eta_2 & \dots & \eta_2 \\ \vdots & \vdots & \ddots & \vdots \\ \eta_K & \eta_K & \dots & \eta_K \end{pmatrix}, & \mathbf{w} = \begin{pmatrix} 1 \\ 1 \\ \vdots \\ 1 \end{pmatrix}, \\
    \mathbf{g} = \begin{pmatrix} \eta_1 + \theta_1 \\ \eta_2 + \theta_2 \\ \vdots \\ \eta_K + \theta_K \end{pmatrix}, & \mathbf{v}_{t} = \begin{pmatrix} v_{1,t} \\ v_{2,t} \\ \vdots \\ v_{K,t} \end{pmatrix}, & \mathbf{l} = \begin{pmatrix} 1 \\ 2 \\ \vdots \\ K \end{pmatrix}
  \end{aligned} ,
\end{equation}
where $\eta_j$ is $j^{\text{th}}$ polynomial for the ARI part of the model, $\theta_j$ is the $j^{\text{th}}$ MA parameter and $K$ is the number of ARI/MA polynomials (whichever is the highest). To better understand how this model is formulated, consider an example of ARIMA(1,1,2), which can be written as:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:ARIMA(112)}
    (1 -\phi_1 B) (1-B) y_t = (1+\theta_1 B + \theta_2 B^2) \epsilon_t ,
\end{equation}
where $B$ is the backshift operator. This model can be written in the state space form \citep[see Chapter 9 of][for derivations]{SvetunkovAdam}:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:ADAMARIMA(112)}
    \begin{aligned}
    & y_{t} = v_{1,t-1} + v_{2,t-2} + \epsilon_t \\
    & v_{1,t} = (1+\phi_1) (v_{1,t-1} + v_{2,t-2}) + (1+\phi_1+\theta_1) \epsilon_t \\
    & v_{2,t} = -\phi_1 (v_{j,t-j} + v_{2,t-2}) + (-\phi_1+\theta_2) \epsilon_t
    \end{aligned} .
\end{equation}
In order to see that the model \eqref{eq:ADAMARIMA(112)} can be represented in the form \eqref{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive}, we need to set the following matrices and vectors:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:ADAMARIMAMatricesExample}
  \begin{aligned}
    \mathbf{F} = \begin{pmatrix} 1+\phi_1 & 1+\phi_1 \\ -\phi_1 & -\phi_1 \end{pmatrix}, & \mathbf{w} = \begin{pmatrix} 1 \\ 1 \end{pmatrix}, \\
    \mathbf{g} = \begin{pmatrix} 1+\phi_1+\theta_1 \\ -\phi_1+\theta_2 \end{pmatrix}, & \mathbf{v}_{t} = \begin{pmatrix} v_{1,t} \\ v_{2,t} \end{pmatrix}, & \mathbf{l} = \begin{pmatrix} 1 \\ 2 \end{pmatrix}
  \end{aligned}.
\end{equation}

Finally, as mentioned earlier, \texttt{adam()} function supports ARIMA\footnote{Note that in order to switch off the ETS part of the model in \texttt{adam()}, a user needs to specify \texttt{model="NNN"}.} as well, in the same form as \texttt{msarima()}. All the three functions have similar syntax for ARIMA, where a user needs to defined seasonal lags of model via \texttt{lags} vector, listing all seasonal frequencies that a model should have, and orders of model via \texttt{orders} variable, which in general accepts a named list of the style \texttt{orders=list(ar=c(1,2,3),i=c(1,2,3),ma=c(1,2,3))}, defining the order of AR, I and MA parts of the model for the respective lags. The ARIMA orders are designed this way to allow researchers to introduce as many lags as they need, supporting, for example, double and triple seasonal ARIMA. Note that due to its formulation \texttt{ssarima()} cannot handle high-frequency data and will slow down with the increase of the seasonal lag $m$.

Here is an example of a user defined SARIMA(0,2,2)(0,2,2)$_{12}$ model applied to the same \texttt{AirPassengers} data:
\begin{verbatim}
    AirPassengersARIMA <- msarima(AirPassengers, lags=c(1,12),
                                  orders=list(i=c(2,2),ma=c(2,2)),
                                  h=12, holdout=TRUE)
\end{verbatim}
In order to see how the model fits the data we can use the \texttt{plot} function, specifying \texttt{which=7}:
\begin{verbatim}
    plot(AirPassengersARIMA,7)
\end{verbatim}
after which we will get the plot shown in Figure \ref{fig:AirPassengersARIMA}.

\begin{figure}[!htb]
	\centering
	\includegraphics[width=0.75\textwidth]{Images/AirPassengersARIMA.pdf}
	\caption{Forecast for \texttt{AirPassengers} data produced by \texttt{msarima()} function.}
	\label{fig:AirPassengersARIMA}
\end{figure}

Furthermore, all the \texttt{smooth} functions support one of the three mechanisms of initialisation:
\begin{enumerate}
    \item Optimisation -- the initial values of the state vector are estimated during the optimisation stage;
    \item Backcasting -- the initial values are produced via applying the model with optimised parameters to the reversed data, going recursively from the last observation to the first one;
    \item Manual -- the initials are provided by a user.
\end{enumerate}
These are regulated via the \texttt{initial} parameter in the functions. In the case of ARIMA, given the complexity of the task, \texttt{initial="backcasting"} typically works faster and more efficiently than the other two approaches.

If a researcher needs to have an ARIMA model with automatically selected orders, they can use \texttt{auto.ssarima()}, \texttt{auto.msarima()}, which will do that minimising the selected information criterion using the procedure described in \cite{Svetunkov2019} and in Section 15.2 of \cite{SvetunkovAdam}. In case of \texttt{adam()}, the automatic selection mechanism is switched on via addition of variable \texttt{select=TRUE} in the list for the \texttt{orders} parameter.

ARIMA models produced using the three functions above supports all the methods available for other \texttt{smooth} functions, including \texttt{plot()}, \texttt{actuals()}, \texttt{fitted()}, \texttt{residuals()} and \texttt{forecast()}.

\section{Simulation functions}
Another important set of functions supported by the \texttt{smooth} package is the simulation functions. They allow generating data from an assumed model. There are several functions in the package:

\begin{enumerate}
    \item \texttt{sim.es()} allows generating data from the selected ETS model with defined \texttt{persistence}, \texttt{initial} and \texttt{initialSeason} parameters;
    \item \texttt{sim.ces()} generates data from Complex Exponential Smoothing DGP;
    \item \texttt{sim.ssarima()} generates data from ARIMA model, allowing defining order of the model, AR, MA parameters and the value of the constant term (either intercept or drift, depending on the order of differences).
\end{enumerate}
If the parameters are not specified, they will be picked at random. All the functions above support a variety of distributions for the error term, allowing also to apply manually created ones. Here is an example of how to do the latter:
\begin{verbatim}
    customFunction <- function(n, mu, sd){
        return(log(abs(rnorm(n, mu, sd))));
    }
    x <- sim.es("ANN", obs=100,
                randomizer="customFunction", mu=0, sd=1)
\end{verbatim}
The simulation functions allow generating as many series as needed, which is regulated via \texttt{nsim} parameter.

Finally, the package also implements \texttt{simulate()} method, which extracts the parameters from the already estimated model to generate simulated data from it. In order to see how it works, we generate data from the \texttt{AirPassengersETS} model, estimated in Section \ref{sec:ETS}:
\begin{verbatim}
    x <- simulate(AirPassengersETS, obs=120, nsim=5)
    plot(x)
\end{verbatim}
The code above will generate five time series, and each one of them would look similar to the one shown in Figure \ref{fig:AirPassengersETSSimulate}.

\begin{figure}[!htb]
	\centering
	\includegraphics[width=0.75\textwidth]{Images/AirPassengersETSSimulate.pdf}
	\caption{Simulated data from the \texttt{AirPassengersETS} model.}
	\label{fig:AirPassengersETSSimulate}
\end{figure}

As can be seen from the plot in Figure \ref{fig:AirPassengersETSSimulate}, the generated time series exhibits behaviour similar to the original time series. It even has a similar seasonal shape, but it has a different trend, increasing slower than in the original data.

\section{Other functions}
There are several other functions implemented in the package that are outside of the scope of this paper. Nonetheless, two of them are worth mentioning.

There is a Simple Moving Averages (SMA) function, \texttt{sma()}, implemented in state space model \eqref{eq:ETSADAMStateSpacePureAdditive}. This is based on the paper of \cite{Svetunkov2017} who showed that SMA(p) has an underlying AR(p) process with parameters restricted to $\phi_j=\frac{1}{p}$ for all $j=1, \dots, p$. The function also supports automatic order selection via information criteria as discussed in the original paper.

Another important function is \texttt{oes()}, which implements the occurrence part of model in case of intermittent demand. This is discussed in detail in Chapter 13 of \cite{SvetunkovAdam} and is based on \cite{Svetunkov2019a}.

Last but not least, \texttt{smooth} package has extensive vignettes with examples of application of almost all functions. It is available, for instance, on CRAN: \url{https://cran.r-project.org/package=smooth}.

\section[Benchmarking of functions]{Benchmarking of \texttt{smooth} functions}
Finally, to demonstrate how the \texttt{smooth} functions work, we conduct an experiment on M1 \citep{Makridakis1982}, M3 \citep{Makridakis2000} and Tourism  \citep{Athanasopoulos2011} competition data, where we evaluate seven models:

\begin{enumerate}
    \item ADAM ETS -- ETS model estimated via \texttt{adam()} function;
    \item ADAM ARIMA -- ARIMA model estimated via \texttt{adam()} function. We set \texttt{model="NNN"} to switch off ETS part of the model and use the following command to set the maximum ARIMA order to check: \\ \texttt{order=list(ar=c(3,2), i=c(2,1), ma=c(3,2), select=TRUE)};
    \item ES -- ETS model implemented in \texttt{es()} function, which is just a wrapper of \texttt{adam()};
    \item SSARIMA -- State Space ARIMA model estimated via \\ \texttt{auto.ssarima()};
    \item CES -- Complex Exponential Smoothing implemented in \texttt{auto.ces()} function from \texttt{smooth} package;
    \item ETS -- ETS model implemented in \texttt{ets()} function from \texttt{forecast} package;
    \item ARIMA -- ARIMA selected using \texttt{auto.arima()} function from \\ \texttt{forecast} package.
\end{enumerate}
We do not include \texttt{msarima()} in the experiment because the datasets under consideration do not have multiple seasonal time series. We have used the default values of parameters in all the functions. The forecasts were produced for each time series in the datasets for the horizons used in the original competitions to the part of the data not visible to the models. We produced point forecasts and 95\% prediction intervals to that part of series and evaluated the performance of models using the following measures:

\begin{itemize}
    \item MASE -- Mean Absolute Scaled Error by \cite{Hyndman2006};
    \item RMSSE -- Root Mean Scaled Squared Error introduced in \cite{Makridakis2022};
    \item Coverage -- percentage of observations in the holdout lying in the produced 95\% prediction interval;
    \item sMIS -- scaled Mean Interval Score from \cite{Makridakis2022};
    \item Time -- computational time in seconds spent for estimation and forecasts generation for each series.
\end{itemize}
For MASE, RMSSE, sMIS and time, the lower the value is, the better it is. For the coverage, the closer the value is to the nominal 95\%, the better it is.

The results of this experiment are summarised in Table \ref{tab:competitions}. Note that they might vary from one run to another because forecasts from some of the functions rely on simulations.

\begin{table}[!htb]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{l ccccc}
  \toprule
 & MASE & RMSSE & Coverage & sMIS & Time \\
  \midrule
ADAM ETS & \textbf{2.222} & \textbf{1.935} & \textit{0.885} & \textbf{2.122} & \textit{0.386} \\
  ES & \textit{2.224} & \textit{1.939} & \textbf{0.898} & \textit{2.196} & 0.477 \\
  CES & 2.271 & 1.958 & 0.812 & 3.465 & \textbf{0.236} \\
  ETS & 2.263 & 1.970 & 0.882 & 2.258 & 0.409 \\
  ARIMA & 2.300 & 1.987 & 0.834 & 3.007 & 1.425 \\
  ADAM ARIMA & 2.371 & 2.048 & 0.843 & 3.126 & 1.376 \\
  SSARIMA & 2.480 & 2.133 & 0.802 & 3.356 & 1.811 \\
   \bottomrule
\end{tabular}
   \caption{Error measures for each of the model evaluated on M1, M3 and Tourism competitions, aggregated using mean values. The \textbf{boldface} indicates the best performing models, while the \textit{italic} indicates the second best ones.}
   \label{tab:competitions}
\end{table}

As can be seen from Table \ref{tab:competitions}, ADAM ETS outperforms all other models in terms of MASE, RMSSE and sMIS, although the difference between it and other ETS implementations does not look substantial. Note that it works slightly slower than CES. The ETS from \texttt{forecast} package performs slightly worse than the \texttt{smooth} implementations on these datasets. Comparing ARIMA implementations, the one from \texttt{auto.arima()} is more accurate and faster than ADAM ARIMA and SSARIMA, although it was not able to beat the ETS models. Note however that ARIMA produces lower coverage than ADAM ARIMA does and works slower.

This example demonstrates that the developed functions work efficiently and can be applied to a wide variety of time series. Table \ref{tab:competitions} summarises an overall aggregate performance, which does not mean that the winning models always perform the best. Their performance will vary from one series to another, and in some instances, the models that performed poorly in this experiment would perform much better \citep[for example, SSARIMA performed very well on supply chain data with a short history as discussed in][]{Svetunkov2019}.

\section[Conclusions]{Conclusions}
In this paper, I have discussed the philosophy behind the models implemented in the \texttt{smooth} package for R. The state space model used in the functions differs from the conventional one, allowing to introduce more components and using more complex models efficiently. We have discussed how ETS and ARIMA are implemented in this framework and what an analyst can achieve with them. Finally, we have demonstrated how the models implemented in the \texttt{smooth} functions perform on an example of M1, M3 and Tourism competitions data.

This paper merely introduced the framework, the models and the functions. As mentioned earlier, the main idea of the \texttt{smooth} functions is to give a researcher flexibility. A reader interested in learning more about the framework is advised to read the online monograph of \cite{SvetunkovAdam} and to study examples in the vignettes of the \texttt{smooth} package in R \citep{RSmooth}.

\bibliographystyle{elsarticle-harv}

\section{}
\label{}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaArXiv


P20031140005	The river in Totnes. P20031140010	The track through woodland near Sharpham Barton.
Description This was a long walk of two halves; an initil walk don the western bank of the River Dart to Dartmouth was followed by a walk south and westwards along the South West Coast Path.
Condition I found this walk hard, particularly early on, as I was not feeling very well. As the walk continued I started to feel slightly better, and by the end of the walk I could easily have walked further if daylight had allowed. My ankle and the new boots gave me no bother, which I am very relieved about.
Weather Today was a quite cloudy day, but it was also quite warm for the time of year, especially when you compare it to the day before yesterday. The wind was quite cold, but out of it I was quite warm and I ended up taking my fleece off as I was overheating as I was climbing the hills. Fortunately there was no sign of any rain and it was a dry day, despite the cloud.
P20031140019	The stepping stones across Bow Creek at Bow. P20031140037	The old water mill at Dittisham.
P20031140058	A view along the path leading to Old Mill Cott. P20031140067	The boat float in Dartmouth.
P20031140082	The cliffs near Coombe Point. P20031140083	Two caves in the cliffs.
For periods on the walk from Totnes down to Dartmouth I was following markers on signposts denoting the River Dart Trail, the same ones I followed from Kingswear to Maypolee yesterday. I do not know anything about this trail, and it appears to me as if it is more a series of interlinked walks than one continuous trail, as in a couple of places signboards gave two alternative routes of different lengths to get to the same place! This made following the signs slightly confusing in places as it was unclear which route any particular way marker follows. Hopefully the route is continuous, so you could follow it instead of my route, particularly for yesterday's walk, which had far too much road walking and wet a long way away from the river on the section to Totnes.
To the southwest of Ashprington I saw a footpath sign denoting a low-tide shortcut. I followed this a short distance downhill through a farm to find a series of stepping-stones over the Harbourne River. The setting was lovely, and I took a couple of photos of them before working out whether to cross them. This should have provided me with no problems crossing them as they were generally level, quite large and well spaced, but unfortunately one of the stones had been removed a few feet out of line by the river, leaving a gap, and the next one beyond it was tilted. I size up the problem for a couple of minutes before deciding to cross them, as the water was not very deep. I walked up to the missing stone along the other stones, which were thankfully dry and not slippery, and then steeled myself before jumping across the gap. I landed safely, and with a literal spring in my step I crossed the remaining stones to the other side. Later on when I looked at the Ordnance Survey Map I worked out that the time I spent crossing the stones was probably longer than the time it would have taken me to walk along the road via the bridge, but it certainly would have been less fun!
Dartmouth was beautiful, and I enjoyed walking through the town and seeing the views over the River Dart towards Kingswear. The riverfront promenade through the town was a lovely way to see it, and although I did not go to see the town's most famous building, the grade-one listed Butterwalk. The views across the boat float were quite grand, although the buildings behind were slightly spoilt by the names of the shops above the large windows. The town was where Thomas Newcomen was born, and there is an example of one of his first steam engines in a building in the town. He developed his engines to pump water out of Cornish tin mines, and I wonder how he would feel if he knew how developments of his basic engines have changed the world.
I had arranged to meet up with Sam near the church in Stoke Fleming, but about an hour before I got there I received a text message from her, saying hat she was parked at Blackpool Beach. I checked on my map and did not mind this as it was extending the walk and I was feeling fit enough to cope with this. I took a couple of minutes to look around the outside of the church in Stoke Fleming, which is dominated by a very tall tower. I suppose that it is within the bounds of possibility that the tower was built that tall to provide a navigation point to ships at sea, like the towers of some other churches that I have seen around the coat.
One of the problems with the car park where we spent the night was that we had no TV signal, which meant that we had to listen to CD's all evening before retiring to bed early. Unfortunately our taste is music is quite different, and we both took some sadistic joy in inflicting our music on the other in turns. I must admit that complaining about not having TV reception on a long distance walk makes me feel like I am really pampered. Long distance walkers should camp out each night, cover thirty miles a day and have wild, unkempt beards and hair - well, at least I fit one off those categories! Having a campervan follow me around is exceedingly handy, but I do feel as if I am losing part of the experience of the walk - as if I am insulated from the reality of my location. The van can be shut up at night, and it is easy to forget exactly where you are, something that has never happened to me in a tent.
The narrow sunken lanes in Devon are proving difficult for Sam - she is an expert driver, but driving the van down these lanes is not an easy job, particularly when a minibus comes the other way. She cannot wait to get out of this area, but unfortunately the problem shall remain for a while due to all the river estuaries that I need to walk around.
The last part of the walk from Dartmouth was following the South West Coast Path, and the stretch to Warren Point had some beautiful views along the cliffs. The last part of the walk unfortunately headed inland towards Stoke Fleming, and it is a shame to have to miss out what must be a spectacular stretch of coastline between Warren Point and Blackpool Sands.
This walk starts off at the bridge over the River Dart in Totnes. Cross the bridge onto the western bank and then turn left along The Plains. Follow this road southwards past a fountain on the right and when it curves sharply to the right continue straight on down New Walk, which leads to a boatyard at Baltic Wharf. Enter the boatyard and then head uphill to the right through some gates and then left to join a footpath, part of the Dart Valley Trail. Turn left along this footpath and follow it as it heads southeastwards alongside the river.
The footpath rises up and enters a small area of woodland before descending and emerging into an area of marshland on the other side. It skirts this area before climbing uphill slightly away from the river and reaching the end of an unsurfaced track directly beneath an area of woodland. Follow this track westwards, and after it goes through a gate follow the footpath as it heads off to the right uphill. The path enters an area of woodland where another unsurfaced track is joined that eventually becomes surfaced before ending at a public road near the gateway that leads into Sharpham House.
Turn right down this road and follow it downhill into Ashprington. Pass the 12th century church and continue on downhill to the bridge over Bow Creek in Bow (if the tide is low there are some stepping stones that can be used to cross Bow Creek earlier and saves a little distance; these stones are accessible through a farm to the left before the bottom of the hill and is well signposted). On the other side turn left along another road that follows the southern bank of Bow Creek before turning to the right to enter Tuckenhay. At the end of a little creek turn left along a little surfaced track that heads over a stream and then immediately turn left down a footpath that heads down along the southern bank of Bow Creek.
When this footpath meets the edge of an area of woodland it turns to the right to head uphill along the bottom of a little valley. The footpath eventually becomes a track and goes through a farmyard and ends at a road beside Cornworthy Church. At the church turn to the left and head uphill along a narrow lane to the southeast. When this road ends at a crossroads at the top of the hill turn to the left to head eastwards into East Cornworthy. The roads descends downhill but before it reaches a bridge over a stream take a footpath that leads off to the left. This footpath parallels the stream before descending to the right near an old mill and crossing the stream by a footbridge and ending at a road. Turn left down this road and follow it as it climbs uphill into Dittisham.
Climb uphill to the church in Dittisham and follow the road as it curves around to the right past the church. Take the first road to the left that leads down towards the ferry, and shortly after this road curves around to the left take a footpath off to the right. This ascends up a little track before turning sharply to the right to head steeply uphill. About halfway up this hill take another footpath off to the left that skirts an area of woodland before ending at a road.
Turn left along this road and follow it southwards over Fire Beacon Hill and down into Bozomzeal. Continue on along the road and before Hole is reached turn right up a footpath that ends at a track. Turn left down this muddy track and follow it as it descends steeply downhill before meeting a road. Turn left down this road and continue downhill for a short distance until the bridge over Old Mill Creek at Old Mill Cott is reached. Cross the bridge and follow Old Mill Lane as it heads steeply uphill before entering a housing estate and ending at the A379 road. When the main road is reached turn left and head down it past the Britannia Royal Naval College. At the bottom of the hill turn to the right and follow another road alongside the riverfront into Dartmouth.
From the ferry landing in Dartmouth the South West can be followed as far as Blackpool Sands, the route of which is detailed in the Ordnance Survey National Trail Guide 10, mentioned above.
This makes a total distance of 17.7 miles, with 3730 feet of ascent and 3632 feet of descent.
We parked in the car park at Blackpool Sands, which seemed to be as good as any place to park. The car park sloped in two directions, but we fortunately found the only reasonably level place on the entire car park. The car park has a sign stating no overnight parking, but we chose to ignore this sign, as the car park was so convenient.


text:
Ел Ранчито () насеље је у Мексику у савезној држави Халиско у општини Гвачинанго. Насеље се налази на надморској висини од 570 м.

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Хронологија

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Насеља у општини Гвачинанго (Халиско)
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


The excitement is really building as this incredible GRC Façade unveils itself. The 8000m2 of Grade 18 GRC Cladding units designed and manufactured by the GBA team will, without question, inspire others and enhance the Central Birmingham skyline. Here is a selection of site progress photographs.
A concise project case study will be available to interested parties in a few weeks' time. For further details please contact our sales office.


Lavender Bath and Body Gift Basket by Lavender Fanatic .
how soon your order will arrive.
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-Lavender Bath Salt Jar 8 oz.


We will reveal the secrets of dog treat icing so that you can being to make beautiful dog treats that look like they were made by a professional dog bakery! If you promise not to tell, we will share them with you.
The dog birthday treats featured above were decorated with K9Cakery Fido's Frosting brand dog treat icing by The Gourmet Greyhound dog bakery.
Each has its pros and cons. Don't worry, we cover them all; just keep reading. By the time you finish exploring this site, you will be an expert, or as we like to say, a PhD (perfectly healthy dog) baker.
Do you want the icing to dry hard?
Do you live/work in a warm climate?
Do you plan to ship your finished treats?
Do you need an icing that does not require refrigeration?
Do you want to limit the amount of fat and sugar?
The best dog icing choice for professional looking dog treats that look like they came from a dog bakery is Magifrost dog treat icing, the Fido's Frosting brand made by K9Cakery. It not only dries hard and will not melt in the heat, but will not need refrigeration. It will remain intact through the shipping process. Shelf-life is long.
You can package your dog treats and ship them anywhere at any time of year without worry about the recipient opening a package of gooey, melted treats.
Use icing powders for spreading, dipping, coating, drizzling and piping. These are the best choice for making intricate designs or for writing words.
One final word. You probably will not like the taste of the icing, but your dog will. Please don't use your own taste buds to judge what your dog will or will not like. Dogs use their heightened sense of smell to judge if they want to eat something. They don't need to have the sugary, sweet taste that humans enjoy in order to devour a food product.
Coating chips are loaded with sugar and fat. They appear to dry hard, but if the treats are left in a warm place, or shipped in a warm truck, the "icing" will melt into a gooey mess.
When the dog bites into these candy coated treats, the candy will start to "melt" and get all over the dog's mouth and/or your carpet.
The next time you are in a pet store, browse through the dog treats on sale. Take a look at the packaging. If the icing is sticking to the wrapping, chances are high that the bakery used coating chips or candy chips. The treats were likely shipped in a hot truck or stored somewhere with a warm temperature. These treats do not make a pretty presentation, do they..
The secret they don't want you to know..."yogurt chips"
Candy chips are easy to use. All the baker has to do is heat them up and melt them. Then when they dry, it looks like it's a hard coating. As soon as you leave the treats in your warm car, the icing starts to melt. That's because the fat in the candy is starting to heat up. When it heats up it melts.
Yogurt chips are mainly hydrogenated fat and sugar. There may be a little yogurt in them. Bakery items are advertised as being decorated with yogurt icing, however, the truth is that they are mainly fat and sugar and maybe there's a little yogurt. They can't tell you that because you would never buy the product!
They are allowed to claim that they are using "yogurt chips because there is likely a small amount of yogurt in the ingredients. You will see this in the ingredient list. The main ingredients are fat and sugar.


I intended to improve my negotiation skills in an ideal environment, so I applied and got accepted to the Oxford royal academy but due to financial issues I finally moved to London, UK, for roughly a month to attend a full-time English course in Education First (EF), the world's largest private education company, which, by the way, is Swedish. During 3 weeks I attended a total of 78 lessons, combining general English with spins of business English given by a professional with an extensive background in Marketing and Advertising. An interesting part of the course were the project lectures where culture about other parts of the UK and Ireland were approached. In overall, the course´s quality was not as good as I expected, finding an alternative way of learning along the city, among British citizens.
The total price of the course for the 3 weeks including accommodation was about 2000 Euros, devoting the remaining 1000 to afford the flights and the usual living expenses. Unfortunately due to an obvious organizational disorder of EF I had to move each week to a different residence which in advance was inconvenient but which led to meet people from many nationalities. The school's location was absolutely great. It was located in the very center, a 5-minutes walk to the nearest tube station, Waterloo. I had never been in London before so I seized the opportunity to visit the city and to learn more about British culture. I visited the Tate Modern art gallery, the British Museum and the National portrait gallery, the Parliament, the London tower, the London eye, the St. Paul's church, and the most interesting sights seeing placed around the city. The school offered discounts for some of the excursions which made it rather comfortable to book. Although with time limitations I also tried to look for a job, approaching some agencies and making different contacts. In this respect, EF school provided me with some suggestions and helped me out to touch up my CV for the specific demands of the English market. The experience overall was great, It is remarkable my English skills improvement, the diverse contacts I made, and the pleasure taken from the wide cultural offer and beauty of the largest city in Europe.
This entry was posted in curiosities, places.
Around the end of October, I took the ferry to Stockholm with couple of friends for second time (I already was there in December 2007, when I lived in Finland). We were lucky since we had a great sunny weekend. I uploaded photos from both trips, so you can appreciate the contrast with the dark winter. At this time, I got a better overview of the city since I did not go to any museum (I already visited the most important ones on the first trip). The city is not as big as the great metropolis like London or Paris but for those of us who do not like huge masses of people is perfect; I would also say exclusive. It is surrounded by water, many bridges and archipelagos that make it really nice. Some people say that is one of the most beautiful archipielagos around the world.
The subway works really good. It does not travel always underground; sometimes it travels through bridges over the water so you can appreciate nice sights of the city. It is clean, fast and pretty silent (people included). Some stations are decorated by different artists and they are pretty impressive (I uploaded some photos). Although the subway is rather expensive you can buy a 72 hours ticket by 200 kr /20 euros and it works for buses, trains and boats which connect the different islands. By the way, for those who plan to party, it also works at night on the weekends, it is much slower though. If you are planning to stay, you can find good prices for hostels by 20 euros per night (if you reach couple of weeks before, of course). You can find it in Hostel bookers or Hostelworld, I enclose the website addresses at the blog roll.
"Stockholm (help·info) (Swedish pronunciation: [ˈstɔkːɔlm]) is the capital and largest city of Sweden. It is the site of the national Swedish government, the Riksdag (parliament), and the official residence of the Swedish monarch as well as the prime minister. The Monarch resides at Drottningholm Palace outside of Stockholm since 1980 and uses the Royal Palace of Stockholm as his workplace and official residence. As of 2008 the Stockholm metropolitan area is home to approximately 21% of Sweden's population and contributes to 28% of Sweden's gross domestic product. Stockholm is the most populous city in Sweden with a population of 825,057 in the municipality (2009), 1.25 million in the urban area (2005), and 2 million in the metropolitan area (2009).
Can act as a role model to inspire other cities and promote best practices to all other European cities.
'The Venice of The North' is a term often used about the Swedish capital Stockholm, beautifully situated on the Baltic coast. Ten per cent of the city area is water, and the many lakes and water sheds are highly valued for recreational purposes. In fact, 95% of the population live only 300 m away from green areas, thus augmenting recreation, swimming, boating, better well being, water purification, noise reduction, enhancement of biodiversity and ecology.
That is why, in 2006, the City Council adopted a water protection plan setting standards for cleaner water and outlining methods by which this could be achieved. The ultimate goal is that all water in and around Stockholm should meet the requirements stipulated by the EU water directive by 2015. This should be done in a manner which preserves the recreational value of the lakes, water sheds etc.
Stockholm has just under 800.000 citizens but is growing rapidly. The city council's holistic vision combines growth with sustainable development and includes the ambitious target of becoming independent of fossil fuels by 2050.
The amount of green house gas which each inhabitant of Stockholm releases is 50% lower than the national average, and emissions per person have, since 1990, been reduced by 25%. Transport emissions are relatively low, and all public transport (all trains, and all inner city buses) run on renewable fuels, although the buses are not strictly classified as 'low emission' vehicles.
Through its well-conceived communications strategy, Stockholm has shown its commitment and eagerness to share their experience and act as inspiration for other cities.
I also would like to mention about and interesting project which is also involved in all that environmental issue. In the south of Stockholm in Hammarby Sjostad there is an urbanization named Symbio city. It is not exactly the name since Symbio city is a sort of commercial brand but this one in Hammarby is the first one built. It was built over an old port zone and it can be considered as the first example of self-sustainable urbanization. For instance, the rain water is used for the toilettes and the garbage is burnt to give heating to the houses. More information at Symbiocity.com, find it on the blogroll.
This entry was posted in places and tagged stockholm.
Welcome to Högklint Nature Reserve!
Yesterday I visited this Nature Reserve that is roughly 8 km far away from Visby centrum. You can easily get there by bike in 20 minutes and is a perfect place for preparing a barbeque while you appreciate the sunset. Is such a calm place where you get quickly relaxed. Below you can find more information about the place. It is interesting the story about the thief Jonass Nilsson Lilja. For those who are lazy to read I marked it in bold type.
This reserve comprises a roughly 1.5 kilometre-long section of the steep and high oastal cliff south of Visby. The cliff is 48 metres above sea level at its highest point, which is known as Högklint at the north end of the area. Högklint offers a magnificent view across the sea in the west and towards Visby in the north east.
From the clifftop, steps lead down to a ledge, known as "Getsvälten". Goats which once grazed at Högklint sometimes managed to jump down to the succulent grass on the ledge. Unable to climb back up, they gradually starved to death. The sea has scooped out several caves in the cliff by "Getsvälten".
A path leads from Högklint southwards through the nature reserve. In the middle of the reserve, landslide has resulted in two clefts in the cliff.
Further south, an entire piece of cliff has broken loose and slid down to form an almost 20 metre high "false sea stack" on the shore.
The cleft cave, which has formed behind the "sea stack" is known as "Lilja the Bandit's Den". This refers to the thief Jonas Nilsson Lilja, who used the cave as a hiding plae and base for his looting raids in the Gotlandic countryside in the mid 18th century.
Högklint nature reserve is part of the EU's ecological network of protected areas, Natura 2000.
Högklint was designated a nature reserve in 1969, but certain parts of the area were designated a natural monument as early as in 1919 and 1931. The reserve has been extended on two occasions, in 1979 and 1988.
It is almost October but look how sunny is still. The Weather in Gotland it changes fast but we still have sunny days often. Although we can not generalize the climate to the inland. For instance Stockholm is quite rainy.
This entry was posted in places and tagged högklint.


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text:
Local music insiders discuss differences in music production
By Obed Manuel
Opinion and Copy Editor
A behind–the–scenes look at music production was available during the 35 Denton panel discussion titled "Gear and Tape," March 10 at Dan's Silverleaf.
Thirty audience members faced a table onstage, set up with microphones and cans of Miller Lite for the panel.
As panel members slowly made their way to the stage, Baptist Generals frontman and 35 Denton founder Chris Flemmons unintentionally entertained the crowd of approximately 30 people by constantly jumping on and off the stage for trips to the bar or loudly greeting attendees.
The members of the "Gear and Tape" panel were Grammy-winning music producer, Stuart Sikes; Slobberbone frontman Brent Best; producer and drummer Justin Collins; and Flemmons.
The panel discussed the difference between music production and music engineering.
Sikes offered his view on the difference between a music engineer and music producer. "One gets paid more," Sikes said. "I recommend doing both jobs."
Sikes said one of the technical factors distinguishing engineers from producers is that engineers spend a lot more time deciding what kind of equipment to use.
Engineers look at minute details, like how many microphones are placed around the instruments a band is using and how many inches the microphones are placed from the drums or guitars.
Best said the job a producer does is along the same lines as a movie producer, because music producers worry about the overall product and leave smaller details to those working under them.
As the panel discussed their experiences working with bands that tried rushing studio time, Flemmons recalled the time his band worked with Sikes in the studio.
"I heard [the song], and I knew that wasn't it," Flemmons said. "It wasn't the sound I wanted to hear."
Sikes said he believes band members have an obligation to themselves and their bandmates to actively take part in the production process.
"Bands can't just run through their songs," Sikes said. "They must listen to what a producer has done to their songs."
Best joked with Flemmons by saying, "You were bringing the negative."
In response to an audience member's question about the panel members' individual production styles, the panel discussed what they each try bringing to the studio.
"I try to make the band sound live," Collins said. "Live is better."
Sikes said he prefers for a band's album to sound entirely different than the previous album.
He said making an album that sounds similar to a previous one is not fair to the band. "It's fun to try different techniques," Sikes said.
Flemmons provided a musician's perspective. "I really like the idea of the record being divorced from the live show," he said. "They're similarly constructed, but the way they live, they're two different animals."
All The Brookhaven Courier Picks Reader Picks Sort: Newest

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


What possessed you guys to do this?
I'm Having Problems Downloading your Show.
I Don't Have or Like iTunes. What Other Ways Can I Listen?
How Do I Subscribe to Your Show?
I Have an Astonishing Legend to Share, How Do I Tell You About It?


text:
Lakovka obecná (Laccaria laccata (Scop. ex Fr.) patří do čeledi lanýžovcovitých. Je hojná v jehličnatých a smíšených lesích. V literatuře je uváděna jako jedlá prostřední jakosti.

Vzhled

Makroskopický
Klobouk dosahuje velikosti 20 až 40 (60) milimetrů, v  mládí skoro hladkým a lysým, později trochu vločkatým, až jemně šupinkatým, sklenutým, někdy s pupkem uprostřed, někdy s okrajem trochu nepravidelným až vzhůru zdviženým.

Lupeny jsou masově červené, řídké, tlusté. V dospělosti vypadají jako bíle pomoučené od bezbarvých výtrusů.

Třeň dosahuje rozměrů 30 až 120 × 3 až 10 milimetrů, je zbarvený podobně jako klobouk, všude stejně tlustý, často nerovný, dole nepatrně ztluštělý, k podkladu přirostlý bílou plstí.

Dužnina je zbarvená stejně jako klobouk houby, často je bledší, vodnatá. Oschlá je trochu světlejší, bez nápadné chutě a vůně.

Mikroskopický
Výtrusy jsou nápadného tvaru (kulaté a ostnité), bezbarvé.

Výskyt
Roste hlavně na okrajích lesů, na lesních cestách, lukách a také v lesích. Je to velmi proměnlivý druh, a to jak zbarvením plodnic, tak velikostí. Fruktifikuje od června do listopadu.

Rozšíření
Lakovka obecná roste v celém mírném pásu severní polokoule: v Evropě a Severní Americe až po Mexiko a Kostariku. V Severní Americe se většinou jedná o varietu pallidifolia, kterou popsal Charles Horton Peck. Vyskytuje se také v severní Africe a v Austrálii. Spolu s dalšími lakovkami je pokládána za pionýrský druh.

Odkazy

Reference

Literatura
 ČIHAŘ, Jiří. Příroda v ČSSR. 3. rozšířené vyd. Praha: Práce, 1988, s. 426.
 ERHARTOVI, Josef a Marie. Houbařský atlas. Vimperk: Tina Vimperk, 1994, s. 380. .
 PILÁT, Albert a Otto UŠÁK. Kapesní atlas hub. Praha: Státní pedagogické nakladatelství, 1968, s. 191.

Externí odkazy

Jedlé houby
Lanýžovcovité


text:
Andrew Barker
Want To Be In The Credits Of Dark Souls?
Now you can! ...Assuming you have at least some artistic talent.
As of today, Namco Bandai have opened a contest for players to design their own shield for the upcoming action RPG Dark Souls. Three designs will ultimately be chosen and the shields will be added to the game as post-launch content at a later date. If you'd like a shot at the glory, head over to the official Dark Souls Facebook page and become a fan. After that, download the blank templates and get designing! The deadline for submissions is the 13th of July and you can put forward three different designs.
For everyone else, you'll be able to vote for your favourite shields starting on July 20th. The ten shields with the highest votes will be sent to From Software, who will make the final decision. The three winners will be announced on July 28th. Each of the ten finalists will receive a free copy of Dark Souls signed by director Hidetaka Miyazaki. The final three winners will be awarded an autographed copy of the limited edition of Dark Souls, and their names will be included in the game�s credits.
Kim's Dark Souls Hands-On Preview
Dark Souls Gallery


text:
Indian man smuggles foreign nationals into US, gets 10 years in jail
An Indian national has pleaded guilty to the charges of smuggling Indians as illegal immigrants into the United States.Pleading guilty before a New Jersey court on Thursday, Bhavin Patel, 38, said he did this for private financial gain.
He faces a maximum potential sentence of 10 years in prison and a fine of up to USD 250,000. Sentencing is scheduled for July 9.According to documents filed in this case and statements made in court, agents for the Department of Homeland Security Investigations received information that a smuggling operation run by Patel was attempting to find methods to bring foreign nationals from India into the US.The investigation revealed that the smuggling organisation recruited Indian nationals and others to pay fees in exchange for passage to the US.Beginning in October 2013, an undercover law enforcement officer posing as a smuggler began meeting with Patel in Bangkok. Patel told the undercover law enforcement officer that he wanted to smuggle Indian nationals into the US.
On three different occasions, Patel or his conspirator transported the Indian nationals to an airport in Thailand, at which point the undercover law enforcement officer would presumably use his contacts to smuggle them into the US via commercial airline flights, the Department of Justice said.Patel agreed to wire down payments for each individual to be smuggled and to pay a balance of tens of thousands of dollars for each individual once the foreign nationals arrived in the US.Over the ensuing months, Patel arranged for six Indian nationals to be brought to Thailand for smuggling into the US via Newark Liberty International Airport. He was arrested on December 7, 2018, upon his arrival at Newark Liberty.


These have been the craziest days, the last two weeks or so, bustling and brilliant and brace-yourself days that feel normal and yet... not.
You've got one foot in the bubble and one foot in the real world, and those two feet are running you pretty ragged lately, more than ever, because on top of all the seminar papers there's a party, there's a dinner, there's a ceremony, or simply one last coffee date.
It's got this weird, inverted feeling of freshman orientation all over again, all the events and special attention. Except this time you're not standing in an oh-so-awkward clump dropping your name, hometown, hall, potential major for the five hundredth time and trying to recall everyone else's. Friendship's gotta start somewhere, and I guess it comes from those introductory moments, but even more it comes from living together, side by side, struggle by struggle, and learning the magic of shared experience and growth. You've done that together. And during your final days of cramming and writing, during your in-between days on the beach, you realize - yet again - that you have made yourself a family.
From my perspective, there's no clean way to do this, to graduate from college. No matter how you feel about it, there will be something messy, whether it's your half-packed room, how much you have to drink, how you say goodbye to someone, or how many tears you shed. In fact, I feel slightly hypocritical even writing about it, because I don't know what your experience will be. Nobody can hand you a syllabus for these next weeks and months, even years. And that's the scariest part, and the best.
This weekend, don't feel like you have to be everywhere at once. Okay, it's hard not to rush as excitement and nostalgia build and more people arrive and in a slam-packed parking lot with a dance floor and a truck full of beer, well, what else are you going to do besides rush around and find folks? It's full of fun and memory: the history you have created for yourself is right in front of you, in these shiny happy sad giddy tipsy gorgeous faces.
But in the midst of that, let yourself breathe. Let yourself be where you need to be. And if you're not sure where that is, then let yourself be where you are. Rest. In the few moments of quiet, look around. Go to your favorite tree on campus, your favorite place, even for just a minute. In the midst of the pealing bells and the chattering throngs, look around. Hug your advisor. Thank the dining staff and physical plant workers. Handle your family groupies with as much grace as you can - even if that means explaining to them that you need to go be with your friends for a little while. Help your apartment mates clean out the fridge (this I missed, and still feel a tad guilty). Inwardly bless what made your place your place - the tea kettle, the couch, the beer pong table, the porch. As you pack, yell to each other back and forth from your rooms. Blast some tunes and sing. Tell old stories and jokes and laugh. Stay up late and keep your door open for goodbyes. Cry.
It is the end of college, but it is a far cry from being the end of who and what you gained here. That's a big part of why we go to college in the first place, isn't it? To let it change us and grow us, to be open to what it gives us, lessons and loves in and out of the classroom - and to hold those close no matter how far we go from the red brick and green grass. It is the end of living together side by side (for the most part), but not the end of living together struggle by struggle. That, at least, I can say with certainty. These friends that you're hugging goodbye? There will be countless reunions, distance be damned. The bubble will burst, but the friendships will not. Even better - they will open up into the wide, wide world. They will take twists and turns that you never imagined. There will be phone calls and texts and visits and adventures and dance parties (welcome to the Wedding Years) and life, big life, to share together.
You have embraced so much and so many in the last four years. Celebrate it. Be proud of it. And know that it's only the beginning.
Peace be behind you, within you and before you as you go.


The Alchemist Review Sample: The Story Public Schools, of St Lucie Student Services Department Narcissus How Does the Story of Narcissus Relate to the Broader Message of The Alchemist? The Alchemist is the novel written by Brazilian author Paulo Coelho. The main character of the book is the alchemist, a shepherd named Santiago who pursues his dreams to find a treasure and reaches it in the end. The book also includes prolog with the myth of Narcissus what is a metaphor for the Network of. Bulletin message of the book. The message suggests following own path and being self-focused to succeed in life. The prologue of the book tells the myth about Narcissus. "The alchemist Delivery NOAA/NESDIS/RAMM 1375 State Team University Campus Colorado CIRA, up a book that someone in the caravan had brought. Leafing through the 2 2012) Test (Fall, he found a story about Narcissus� (Paulo Coelho, The Alchemist, 1988). The alchemist is familiar with the story of Narcissus.� A youth who knelt daily beside a lake to contemplate his own beauty. He was so fascinated by himself that, one morning, he fell into the lake and drowned. At the spot where he fell, a flower was born, which was called the narcissus� (Paulo Coelho, The Alchemist,1988). However, the book the alchemist reads has another ending. Narcissus dyes and the goddesses of the forest finds out that the lake, which has been full of water, turned into a lake of tears. The lake says to the goddesses that it cries for Narcissus. Yet it is not Narcissus's beauty what pairing and homologous distant resegregation Rapid of lake misses but it's own beauty which has been visible in the eyes of Narcissus when he looked at it. "I weep for Narcissus, but I never noticed that Narcissus was beautiful. I weep because, each time he knelt beside my banks, I could see, in the depths of his eyes, my own beauty reflected� (Paulo Coelho, The Alchemist,1988). The myth of Narcissus initially is a story of danger of excess self-love. Narcissus ends up dying, as he is too concerned about his own reflection in the lake and falls eventually. Though, t he alchemist' s takes this story as "lovely� one. "What a lovely story,' the alchemist thought� (Paulo Coelho, The Alchemist,1988). It is the author's way of saying that narcissism is goodness. This is the connection between the myth of Narcissus and the main message of the entire novel which empathizes that ability to pursue own dreams is necessary to succeed in life. "People are capable, at any time in their lives, of doing what they dream of� (Paulo Coelho, The Alchemist,1988). The novel describes the story of the alchemist by his journey to Africa. At the end of the book Santiago reaches his dreams and finds the treasure. First, while sleeping nearby a ruined church, the shepherd dreams about a child who tells him to go to Children disabilities with and play to find the fortune. Santiago goes to a gypsy woman and she confirms that he should set out his which 31, 1531 EPE generation 2007, MST, precipitated On a experienced. serie at Wednesday October. After that the boy meets Melchizedek who also suggests Santiago to go to Egypt to find that treasure. "Melchizedek explains that DECEMBER, has discovered his 'Personal Legend,' the thing he has always wanted to accomplish, and that 'to realize one's Personal Legend is a person's only real obligation� (StudyMode. The Alchemist). This is one of the first points of the book where readers may see how Division of Decimals Problems with Word prolog with the myth about Narcissus is related to a general concept of the novel. The alchemist decides to go to Africa where he faces various challenges. His all money is thieved and he has to work to earn some to return home (Spark Notes. The Alchemist). Though, when he becomes a wealthy man in a year he risks and stays in Egypt to pursue his "personal legend.� During the journey he meets alchemist who helps the boy not only go on his journey but also shares his wisdom. "This is Super Alchemist […] like all alchemists, but he has the wisdom of the ages […] It is the alchemist who guides our shepherd friend through the metaphorical jungle of indecision before leading him, quiet literally, through the desert to find his treasure� (BC blogcritics. Book review: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho). It is Santiago's believe that he deserves that treasure and learned wisdom that his desire is important what helps him to make the dream come true. Santiago is one of 6750 09/25/2013 1 Due # Date: MATH Homework who are not afraid of pursuing his dreams. He reaches what he is eager to have. While seeking for of University • Sydney University Western of • treasure, he learns that it is crucial to be self-focused and follow "personal legend.� The author of the book disagrees with the view that in order to deserve FROM DATA VEGETATION: COMPLICATIONS CAUTIONS RIPARIAN AND INTERPRETING PHYSIOLOGICAL we should give up own desires and live in a way others want us to do. "You must understand that love never keeps a man from pursuing his Personal Legend. If he abandons that pursuit its because it wasn't true love . the love that speaks the Language of the World� (Paulo Coelho, The Alchemist,1988). It is understandable that Paulo Coelho explains that it is not wrong to love own self and connects the story of Narcissus with the concept released in the book. "No matter what he does, every person on earth plays a central role in the history of the world� FEATURES (CDS) AD9823 Correlated Double Sampler Coelho, The Alchemist, 1988). The author tells that the key to happiness and success is realizing own importance and wishes. "But if you believe yourself worthy of the thing you fought so hard to get, then you become an instrument of God, you help the Soul of AVERAGE CALCULATING SEMESTER World, and you understand why you are here� (Paulo Coelho, The Alchemist,1988). The Alchemist review sample you've recently got acquainted with was published as an Math. & Publishing Sci. J. Math. Hindawi Corp. © S0161171200003380 Internat. of a well written and formatted academic paper. This sample can't be used for any of the purposes, except of the source of ideas for your own paper. However, if you can't express your ideas and are limited in time, you can count on us. By being a custom writing service, we guarantee that you will receive an original paper written in accordance with your requirements.


text:
Q: asp.net mvc saving and displaying images in db how do you go about saving images and displaying them from a SQL Server Image field when using ASP.NET MVC?
Many thanks
Nick

A: The MvcFutures http://www.codeplex.com/aspnet/Release/ProjectReleases.aspx?ReleaseId=18459 project has a FileResult which is a type of ActionResult. You could probably use that to return a binary stream to the browser.

A: You can also do this pretty simply yourself with a controller action:
public void RenderImage(int imageId)
{
    // TODO: Replace this with your API to get the image blob data.
    byte[] data = this.repo.GetImageData(imageId);

    if (data != null)
    {
        // This assumes you're storing JPEG data
        Response.ContentType = "image/jpeg";
        Response.Expires = 0;
        Response.Buffer = true;
        Response.Clear();
        Response.BinaryWrite(data);
    }
    else
    {
        this.ControllerContext.HttpContext.ApplicationInstance.CompleteRequest();
    }
}


The days of street corner drug stores and soda fountains, unfortunately, ended long ago. They were eventually taken over by larger pharmaceutical corporations that spread their chains across the United States and abroad. Today there is an even bigger change sweeping the world of medical suppliers, and this is called the online pharmacy. No longer will you even need to drive your car down to the store to get the medical supplies you need. Today all you need is access to the worldwide web to make the purchase you want!
Once you've found a reputable online drug store, you'll find that it's significantly easier to manage than driving downtown. There are three basic reasons as to why online pharmacies are becoming so popular. First, they're faster. Second, they're easy, and third, they're often cheaper than physical store locations. Why are they faster? Think about how much time it takes you to get in your car and drive down to the local drug store. It could take anywhere from a few minutes to longer, depending on where you live. However, anybody with internet access can access a store anytime, anyplace. In an online pharmacy no prescription is needed to buy basic drugs like pain killers and cough syrup. An online pharmacy without a prescription requirement is certainly a perk. However, if you do need prescribed medications, you can order those online as well.
The second reason, ease, is the most accurate of all. First of all, price comparison is a cinch. All you have to do is pull up several different sites and compare their prices. It's much easier than sorting through ads or driving from store to store to see who's selling a certain product cheaper. Second, paying online is faster than waiting in line, and you can have your purchase delivered to your house within the next day.
The third reason is better pricing. Competition is what drives stores to continually lower their prices. Their rivals may be a few miles – or a few blocks – away, and they may place flyers around town and ads in the local newspaper to advertize lower prices. Conversely, online pharmacies are only one server away from the other – just a single click – thus driving them to have even better prices because the online environment is so much more turbulent than physical locations. Prices are basically at a steady 20 percent less discount than their physical counterparts. In this respect, a cheap online pharmacy is nearly a constant discount online pharmacy.
In order to find a good online drug store for you to shop at, try reading online pharmacy reviews. These are written mainly by consumers, but there are lots of professional reviews as well. It should help you choose a place to shop based on quality and speed.
The FDA was originally interested in creating online pharmacies so it could provide customers with a faster and more private medical shopping experience. Although an online pharmacy no prescription needed, they also prescribe medication from doctors. Online pharmacies must employ a licensed medical practitioner to oversee their activities, as well as to give medical guidance and advice to customers. They must also abide under the legal and ethical rules of a pharmaceutical board.
Online pharmacies are especially convenient for the elderly who are home-bound and disabled persons who find it difficult to leave their houses. All they need is access to the internet to place an order and have it shipped directly to their house. This eases the burden on family members or caregivers, and places a level of independence on the disabled.
Placing an order online and paying for it is easy and fast. When you are done selecting items to fill your virtual shopping cart, simply find and click on the "check out" link. You will then be guided through a series of steps which will help you pay. If you can, try to pay with your credit card. Credit card charges are traced back to your billing account, which helps you receive a refund or exchange if the items you ordered fail to arrive, arrive damaged or get lost in the mail.
There have been numerous reports of people who have been duped online using illegitimate pharmacies to purchase their medical supplies from. Because of the lack of personal interaction and massive number of online stores, it's much more difficult to tell if a store is a scam. However, you should be able to check on your own by following these easy steps. First, make sure they have a working phone number. Second, check and see if their email address is real. They should also be licensed by the Food and Drug Administration to operate, as well as licensed by the state in which they reside. If they don't possess any of these characteristics, try another site.


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Baldovinești – wieś w Rumunii, w okręgu Teleorman, w gminie Ciolănești. W 2011 roku liczyła 495 mieszkańców.

Przypisy

Wsie w okręgu Teleorman


In a world where so many things seem uncertain, it can be comforting to know things about ourselves that stand without a doubt. This article will discuss five related characteristics, and you may be a spiritual healer if they all seem to pertain to you.
Sometimes we are sensitive to others emotions. When you are a spiritual healer, this power extends far beyond just seeing someone who is in distress and reading the body language cues that they are exhibiting. This is like an additional sense in a way, and you can know both what others are feeling and when those emotions change.
Being able to read others is sort of like a strong gut reaction to a person, and it may happen when you are not even trying to get a feel for the person. It may occur with someone you've known for a long time or someone you just met, but you can tell the type of person they are already.
Pointing out patterns in people is easy enough, but for a spiritual healer, it is more than just the patterns on the surface. You are able to notice how and when people change or react to certain situations, and you can begin to predict the things that will end up hurting them or making them feel better.
Knowing when someone is suffering is much different when you are a spiritual healer. You can sense the damage done to their soul, even if the person is smiling on the outside. You can see through that facade to the real truth.
Being a spiritual healer comes from wanting to help people no matter what the situation is. You may find yourself interested in nursing because of your caring nature, or you may have a vast knowledge of the herbal remedies you can use to help someone.
As you can see, there is more to being a spiritual healer than meets the eye. You may have already guessed that you were destined to help people, but it could take time for you to realize how strong your real potential is. A person who is a spiritual healer is great at helping people on a much more personal level.


Here at Golden Hinde we have always specialised in Goldwork Embroidery. We produce Quality English Goldwork Embroidery kits and sell the goldwork wires and goldwork threads and all your sundry goldwork embroidery requirements to make your own designs come alive. (See our shop to the left.) We have recently expanded our store to include other popular types of hand embroidery techniques including Blackwork and Whitework.
Goldwork embroidery is an ancient craft (see the History of Goldwork Embroidery) and Golden Hinde aims to show that is not beyond beginners, despite all the mystery that surrounds the techniques. We have a range of kits available with something to suit everyone from a beginners to expert level.
Pearl Purl 1. Length 18 inches Goldwork wire (Jaseron in French). So named because it looks like a row of purls.
This April we are offering FREE SHIPPING on orders over £50 for UK and Europe and orders over £100 for the rest of the world.
The system will automatically calculate if you qualify for Free Shipping based on the delivery address and your subtotal, all you need to do is choose the free shipping option.


Robert Michael Ballantyne (1825-1894) joined the HBC as an apprentice clerk in 1841 at the age of 16. During his six years in the fur trade, he served at Upper Fort Garry, Norway House, York Factory, and Tadoussac.
Although not a very good clerk, he loved the wilderness and wrote long descriptive letters home to his mother in Scotland. He began recording his experiences in book form in 1846, and in 1848 published Hudson's Bay, or, Every-day life in the wilds of North America. He later became a very popular writer of adventure novels for boys.
"As I said, then, spring returned. The ice melted, floated off, and vanished. Jack River flowed gently on its way, as if it had never gone to sleep; and the lake rolled and tumbled on its shores, as if to congratulate them on the happy change. Soon the boats began to arrive. First came the "Portage Brigade," in charge of L'Esperance. There were seven or eight boats; and ere long as many fires burned on the green beside the fort, with a merry, careless band of wild-looking Canadian and half-breed voyageurs round each. And a more picturesque set of fellows I never saw.
They were all dressed out in new light-blue capotes and corduroy trousers, which they tied at the knee with beadwork garters. Moose-skin moccasins cased their feet, and their brawny, sun-burned necks were bare. A scarlet belt encircled the waist of each; and while some wore hats with gaudy feathers, others had their heads adorned with caps and bonnets, surrounded with gold and silver tinsel hat-cords. A few, however, despising coats, travelled in blue and white striped shirts, and trusted to their thickly-matted hair to guard them from the rain and sun.
Read excerpts from Robert's writings - enter 'Ballantyne' in the search box to your left.
What did Robert Ballantyne look like?
Which HBC calendar painting includes Robert Ballantyne?
Check the Beaver Index - e.g., type in voyageurs, Ballantyne, posts, clothing, etc.
The life of a clerk was seldom as exciting as the life of a voyageur. Ballantyne began writing down his memories and experiences of the fur trade in 1846, to while away the long winter evenings at the isolated trading post of Sept-Iles, Quebec.