Data science is about finding signals buried in the noise. It's tough to do, but there is a certain way of thinking about it that I've found useful. Essentially, it comes down to finding practical methods of induction, where I can infer general principles from observations, and then reason about the credibility of those principles.
Induction is the go-to method of reasoning when you don't have all of the information. It takes you from observations to hypotheses to the credibility of each hypothesis. In practice, you start with a hypothesis and collect data you think can give you answers. Then, you generate a model and use it to explain the data. Next, you evaluate the credibility of the model based on how well it explains the data observed so far. This method works ridiculously well.
To illustrate this concept with an example, let's consider a recent project, wherein I worked to uncover factors that contribute most to employee satisfaction at our company. Our team guessed that patterns of employee satisfaction could be expressed as a decision tree. We selected a decision-tree algorithm and used it to produce a model (an actual tree), and error estimates based on observations of employee survey responses. We arrived at a model that predicted—as long as employees felt they were paid even moderately-well, had options to advance, and management that cared—they were likely to be happy.
The following figure illustrates this way of thinking, using concepts borrowed from David J. Saville and Graham R. Wood's statistical triangle. The figure is a schematic representation that makes it easier to see how the logic of data science works.
Figure 1. Using the statistical triangle to illustrate the logic of data science. Credit: Jerry Overton.
A point in the space represents a collection of independent observations. The dotted line shows the places in the space where the observations are all consistent. The best models are generic ones that can apply consistently across all observations (ones that lie along the dotted line). For example, in the employee satisfaction analysis, we generated a simple decision tree that could accurately classify a great majority of the employee responses we observed. The general model with the smallest error is also the model most likely to accurately predict future observations—the principle of Ockham's Razor. This assumes, of course, that the observations are faithful representatives of the world at large.
Ultimately, the goal is to arrive at insights we can rely on to make high-quality decisions in the real world. We can tell if we have a model we can trust by following a simple rule of Bayesian reasoning: look for a level of fit between model and observation that is unlikely to occur just by chance. For example, the low P values for our employee satisfaction models told us that these results were probably significant. In observation space, this corresponds to small angles (which are less likely than larger ones) between the observation vector and the model.
Figure 2. A small angle indicates a significant model because it's unlikely to happen by chance. Credit: Jerry Overton.
The logic of data science tells us what it means to treat data as evidence. But following the evidence does not necessarily lead to a smooth increase or decrease in confidence in a model. Models in real-world data science change, and sometimes these changes can be dramatic. New observations can change the models you should consider. New evidence can change confidence in a model. As we collected new employee satisfaction responses, factors like specific job titles became less important, while factors like advancement opportunities became crucial. We stuck with the methods described in this blog, and as we collected more observations, our models became more stable and more reliable.
I believe that data science is the best technology we have for discovering business insights. At its best, data science is a competition of hypotheses about how a business really works. The logic of data science are the rules of the contest. For the practicing data scientist, simple rules like Ockham's Razor and Bayesian reasoning are all you need to make high-quality, real-world decisions.
Article image: Stator of induction motor. (source: Via Andy Dingley on Wikimedia Commons).


Seriously, readers, some news is too ridiculous to believe — but I swear on my red-dyed mop that the following is a true-blue scoop.
Citizen — Uncle San Francisco wants you!
The new year brings new opportunities for citizens to join The City's myriad commissions: There are roughly 83 vacancies across more than 64 commissions, according to the newest annual listing from the Office of the Clerk of the Board.
he San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA) has floated a plan to deploy several types of parking management tools on Potrero Hill's North Slope, including weekday time limits to discourage commuters from leaving their cars and parking meters to offer short-term options for shoppers, visitors, and other daytime users. If implemented the proposal would impact an array of residential and commercial sites, including the San Francisco Police Department's De Haro Street facility, Whole Foods, Live Oak School and Jackson Playground.
This looks like the new neighborhood initiated parking plan program that the Board of Supervisors envisioned when they passed Ordinance 180089. We have Safai and Peskin to thank for this. We trust our new supervisors will continue the program.


text:
Alou Kuol scorpion kick, video, Australia vs Iraq draw at AFC Under-23 Asian Cup
Australian young gun Alou Kuol has put his name well and truly up in lights after scoring one of the most impressive goals in the country's footballing history.
Representing Australia at the AFC Under-23 Asian Cup in Uzbekistan, Kuol's incredible goal helped his side secure a 1-1 draw against Iraq.
The 20-year-old's incredible finish came in stoppage time of the first half. He was stationed in the box ready to accept a cross from Josh Rawlins, but as the cross looked to have floated over his head, Kuol contorted his body to strike the ball with a scorpion kick backheel.
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"I was running forward and saw the ball go behind me, and I just thought, 'Yeah, let's do it'," Kuol said, per the Socceroos website.
Alou Kuol's scorpion kick gave Australia the lead in the 47th minute before Iraq pulled one back (Twitter)
"I couldn't do anything else so I just hit it and it came off.
"Out of 10? I'd give it a five. That's normal. Just give me the same ball and I'll do it again!
"I'm lying, that was nice."
However, despite his incredible effort, Kuol was left disappointed at the result overall.
"Happy to get a point but it's a disappointing result, 100 per cent," Kuol said.
"We were up and we had to get on with it, but in the end Iraq were lucky to get away with a point."
For a daily dose of the best of the breaking news and exclusive content from Wide World of Sports, subscribe to our newsletter by clicking here!
The highs, lows and controversies of Roland-Garros 2022
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Steve Smith smashes second consecutive century for Sydney Sixers against Sydney Thunder
Australian Open 2023: Bill Gates, Anthony Albanese, Rachel Griffiths attend final

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
#EndSARS: Imo State Youths protest against police brutality
October 14, 2020 admin Crime/Security Reports, Latest, News 0
Newsie Events:-
The #EndSARS protest was heavily felt in Imo State Capital, Owerri on Monday as Imo youths numbering over 2000 stormed the Government House to demand an end to police brutality against innocent citizens of the state.
During the protest, the youths displayed placards with inscriptions, 'the policemen have become a thorn in our flesh', 'let us end this brutality before police end us', 'the Governor and Commissioner of police should call the policemen to order,' 'Govt is for the people and not for the cabal' among others inscriptions.
The youths who barricaded the government house roundabout insisted that the commissioner of police in the state must come out to address them before they can open up the road.
According to a protester who pleaded not to be named, accused police of indiscriminate attacks, harassment, and assault on innocent citizens.
He said, "the molestation of the police on innocent citizens is getting out of hand, and we have come to register our grievances. The policemen cannot hold us to ransom in this state. Imo State belongs to us all.
"We have had cases of our girls being sexually harassed by the men on uniform. This is in contradiction to their vow to protest lives and property.
"It is because of their indiscriminate attacks on innocent citizens that the President approved the scrapping of Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). We are calling on the Commissioner of Police to call his men to order because we have had enough of their harassment."
NEWSIE EVENTS MEDIA TEAM Follow Us On Twitter,Instagram & Facebook
@NewsieEvents,I.G newsieevents, Facebook Newsie Events
Human Rights Lawyer, Falana Says Onochie Is Not Fit To Be INEC Commissioner
Aisha Yesufu To #EndSARS Protesters; Be Focused, Avoid Distraction


There is one double bedroom with a double bed. There is room for a travel cot which we can provide, please let us know at the time of booking.
This is a very stylishly decorated and furnished, one bedroom ground floor apartment. It has allocated parking and a enclosed, private patio which is a great place to sit out and enjoy a glass of wine in the summer evenings or to eat al fresco.. This would be an ideal apartment for an executive here for work or would equally be a great choice for a couple with a baby who need somewhere practical and stylish for a holiday in Brighton. The apartment has travertine tiling throughout and is decorated in white with stylish furnishings.
The parking space is just across the road from the apartment. The main entrance to the apartment is in a landscaped square. The apartment itself is on the ground floor.
The living room has dual aspect windows to the front. It is a spacious room with a sofa, bureau and tv with Freeview. There is also an ipod dock and Wi-fi. A sleek black glass dining table for four is next to the archway which leads to the kitchen. Double doors lead from the living room to the enclosed patio which has an outdoor table for four. This is also very practical if you are a smoker.
The newly fitted kitchen has attractive contemporary units and a butler sink. There is a microwave and everything you need to self cater. There is a fridge but the large under counter freezer is located in a cupboard in the hallway which allows space for the dishwasher in the kitchen. There is a washing machine.
The bedroom has dual aspect windows as well and despite being a ground floor property it is very private as there is a garden area and landscaped area with bushes to the front. The bedroom has a superking size bed, wardrobes, bedside tables, drawers and an additional LCD tv which has a built in dvd player.
In the hallway there are spacious cupboards. One houses the freezer and the other is spacious enough for all coats and luggage.
Crisp, white bed linen and towels are provided. If you are staying longer than a week we can arrange for regular housekeeping at additional cost.
All utility bills are included.
There is free aloocated parking for one car.
Smoking is not permitted inside the property, but there is a patio.
We can provide a travel cot and high chair but please pre-arrange this. We do not provide bed linen for travel cots.


Studer "S30" Type RHU650-125C 10" x 31" Automatic Cylindrical Grinder s/n 441.55 w/ Studer Controls, Movomatic In-Process Gaging System and Sizing Controls, Motorized Work Head, Tailstock, Tailstock Fine Taper Adjustment, 18" x 4" Wheel Cap., Coolant.
Tschudin Type HTG400 7" x 16" ( 12" x 16" with Risers) Automatic Cylindrical Grinder s/n 71958 w/ Tschudin Controls, Table Risers, Movomatic In-Process Gaging System and Sizing Controls, Compound Motorized Work Heed, Tailstock, 14" Wheel Cap., Coolant.
Tschudin Type HTG400 7" x 16" Automatic Cylindrical Grinder s/n 78222 w/ Tschudin Controls, Table Risers, Movomatic In-Process Gaging System and Sizing Controls, Compound Motorized Work Heed, Tailstock, 14" Wheel Cap., Coolant.
Reid mdl. 618HA 6" x 18" Surface Grinder s/n 14554 w/ Magnetic Chuck. Conrac "Grind-r-lap" mdl. M350 Tool Lapper s/n 84568-413.
Lagun FT-1 Vertical Mill w/ Mitutoyo DRO, 1.5Hp Motor, 55-2940 RPM, 8-Speeds, Power Feed, 9" x 42" Table.Vertical Mill s/n 85998 w/ 3Hp Motor, 80-2720 RPM, 8-Speeds, R8 Spindle, 10" x 48" Table.
Victor mdl. 1630 16" x 30" Geared Head Gap Bed Lathe s/n 451048 w/ 65-1800 RPM, Inch/mm Threading, Tailstock, Steady Rest, KDK Tool Post, 5C Collet Closer, 10" 3-Jaw Chuck, Coolant.
Hardinge mdl. HSL Speed Lathe s/n HSL-5C-4538-T w/ 3-Speeds, 5C Collet Closer.
Noblewest No. 50 Roll Stamping Press.
Thermo Scientific HERATherm OMH180-S 330 Degree C Stress Relieving Oven s/n 41214928 w/ Computer, Stress Relieving and Recording Software.
Smog-Hog mdl. SG-4S-H Industrial Air Cleaner s/n 526258-0190.
2005 Chicago Pneumatic QRS10 10Hp Rotary Screw Air Compressor s/n CAI162476.
American Tools 12-Speed Pedestal Drill Press.
Famco No. 3 ½ R Arbor Press w/ Stand.
Kendal Ultrasonic Cleaning Tank w/ Digital Controls.
Scherr Tumico mdl. 20-3700 14" Optical Comparator s/n Y042401 w/ Quadra-Chek Programmable DRO,Shadow Detector, 10X and 20X Lenses, Surface and Profile Illumination, Stand.
MicroVu mdl. M14 14" Floor Model Optical Comparator s/n 3162 w/ Surface and Profile Illumination.
Ima Sikonki Diamond Core Hardness Tester w/ Accessory Kit.
GEO Scherr Tool Makers Microscope.
(2) Sunnen PG-800- E Precision Bore Gages.
Sunnen PG-700- E Precision Small Bore Gage w/ Acces.
Sunnen PG-500- S and PG-400- S Setting Fixtures.
Federal Dimensionair 8000:1 Precision Air Bore Gage and Acces.
Mitutoyo 18" Digital Height Gage.
2008 Okuma "Captain-L370M" 4-Axis Live Turret CNC Turning Center s/n 3722090103-525428 w/Okuma OSP-P200L Controls, Tool Presetter, 12-Station Live Turret, (12) Live Tooling Positions, (4) Radial and Axial Live Tooling, 4200 Spindle RPM, 6000 Live Tool RPM, 2" Thru Spindle Bore, Hydraulic Tailstock, Parts Catcher, 8" 3-Jaw Power Chuck, 5C Collet Nose, Hennig Chip Conveyor, Coolant.
Okuma "Captain-L370" Big Bore CNC Turning Center s/n 108527 w/ Okuma OSP-E100L Controls, 2 ¾" Thru Spindle Bore, Tool Presetter, 12-Station Turret, 3800 RPM, Hydraulic Tailstock, Parts Catcher, 10" 3-Jaw Power Chuck, Hennig Chip Conveyor, Coolant.
Okuma "Cadet" mdl. LNC8 CNC Turning Center s/n E136 w/ Okuma OSP-U100L Controls, 12-Station Turret, 1 7/8" Thru Spindle Bore, 4200 RPM, Hydraulic Tailstock, 8" 3-Jaw Power Chuck, Coolant.
Closer, 4 ½" x 14" Table, Coolant (NEEDS REPAIRS).
13" x 25" Cap., Hand Wheel, Heidenhain Glass Scales, Tailstock Fine Taper Adjustment, Movomatic Probe, Length P ositioning, Dittle "Sensitron 2" Sizing Controls, 20" Wheel Cap., Coolant and Filtration System.


text:
Дидактика в мережі стосується теорії навчання за допомогою  комп'ютерних мереж. Мережеве комп'ютерне обладнання використовується для навчання та підготовки широкого кола людей з різних предметів. Оскільки дидактика в мережі є досить молодою концепцією, терміни ще не чітко визначені та окреслені. Тому є й такі терміни, як мультимедійна навчальна, дидактична або навчальна мережа.

Ще далі в комп'ютерному використанні є онлайн-дидактика, яка спирається на використання Інтернету. Це полегшує доступ до спеціально підготовленого контенту, а також до використання онлайнових робочих платформ (eGroupware, онлайн-сховище, ...).

Необхідна умова
Для того, щоб максимально використати переваги комп'ютерних мереж на уроках, мережеві комп'ютерні зали повинні бути обладнані спеціальним програмним забезпеченням. Так званий Software Management Classroom, наприклад, дозволяє студентам стежити за студентською діяльністю на комп'ютері, надавати студентам екрани для презентацій. Дистанційне керування, яке допомагає заблокувати або розблокувати доступ до Інтернету та спростити обробку файлів учителів та студентів (керування файлами). Таким чином, мотивація і увага класу і успіх в навчанні можуть бути значно покращені.
Крім того, існує безліч програмного забезпечення, що служить для спрощення адміністрування шкільної мережі.
Основними відмінностями такого програмного забезпечення є ціна і зручність використання. Останнє має вирішальне значення в тій мірі, в якій програмне забезпечення фактично використовується вчителями в класі.

Практичний приклад
На першому етапі вчитель (лектор, викладач) може використовувати демонстраційну функцію, щоб зробити вміст екрану видимим для всього класу, одночасно блокуючи клавіатуру і мишу студентських ПК. Таким чином, на презентацію спрямована вся увага студента. Використовуючи інструмент презентації та візуалізації, викладач може провести вас через презентацію. Після цього студенти можуть самостійно спробувати застосувати показане. Учитель може стежити за ходом заняття на екрані та віддалено допомагати з проблемами. Коли студент знайшов особливо цікаве рішення, може бути показаний екран студентського комп'ютера всьому класу. Тому студент працює як віртуальний викладач.

Для того, щоб привернути увагу студентів, екрани студентів можуть бути переключені на темні, а комп'ютери студентів можуть бути заблоковані.

Вчитель може дозволити окремим студентам або цілому класу доступ до Інтернету під час фази практики. Після завершення фази практики, викладач може поширювати робочі аркуші по мережі на всі або окремі місця. Колекцію файлів можна зробити автоматично.

Інтернет-ресурси
e-Didaktik Konzept der Uni Wien
Handreichung der Bildungsdirektion des Kantons Zürich "Erfolgreich unterrichten mit Medien und ICT" (PDF-Datei; 690 kB)
Broschüre Didaktik im Netz von Dr. Hans-Friedrich Vahlensieck (PDF-Datei; 853 kB)

Комп'ютерні технології
Дидактика

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Rörshain ist ein Stadtteil der  Stadt Schwalmstadt im nordhessischen Schwalm-Eder-Kreis. Das Dorf liegt oberhalb der Talmündung der Gers an der Landesstraße 3074 und ist aus Richtung Ziegenhain über die Bundesstraße 254 erreichbar. In der Gemarkung des Orts befinden bzw. befanden sich der Ortsteil Wolfhain, die Hardtmühle und die Zeigerichsmühle.

Geschichte

Ortsgeschichte
Südlich des Ortes befindet sich mit der Sandgrube bei der "Reutersruh" eine der bedeutendsten frühgeschichtlichen Ausgrabungsstätten Hessens, wo Adolf Luttropp im Jahr 1938 Funde aus der Eiszeit und der Altsteinzeit entdeckte. Das hier reiche Quarzitvorkommen bot ein unerschöpfliches Materialdepot für Steinwerkzeuge. Einige der hier gefundenen Exponate sind heute im Museum der Schwalm in Ziegenhain ausgestellt.

Die älteste bekannte schriftliche Erwähnung von Rörshain erfolgte unter dem Namen Reginharteshagen im Jahr 1238 bei einer Übereignung an das Kloster Haina, als Heinrich und Berta von Uttershausen sich auf Lebenszeit ihre Lehen in Rörshain vorbehielten. In späteren Urkunden wurde der Ort mit folgenden Ortsnamen bezeichnet (in Klammern das Jahr der Erwähnung): R(ei)nhardeshagen (1255), Reinhartshan (1269), Reinhartshein (1334), Reynershain (1502), Rershain (1585) und Röhrshayn (1747). Im Jahre 1260 übereigneten die von Uttershausen Haina den Zehnten zu Rörshain. Heinrich von Uttershausen bestätigte 1278, dass das Kloster Haina seine Güter rechtens gekauft habe und leistete Verzicht. Im 16. Jahrhundert bestanden zwei Mühlen, drei kleinere und drei größere Höfe.

1639, im Dreißigjährigen Krieg, lebte noch ein "Hausgesessener" im Ort. 1681 gab es wieder sieben Hausgesesse in Rörshain. Ein Müller, ein Maurer, ein Leineweber, zwei Lohnschäfer, ein Schneider und drei Tagelöhner lebten 1782 ein Rörshain.

Der 1928/29 aufgelöste Gutsbezirks Forst Frielendorf wurde zum Teil zu Rörshain eingemeindet.

Um 1940 entstand nordwestlich des Dorfes ein Militärflugplatz. Ein Bruchsteinbau mit Fachwerkobergeschoss, das Eingangsgebäude des ehemaligen Flugplatzes, ist heute noch in der Wolfskaute erhalten. Am 24. März 1945 wurde der Flugplatz bombardiert. Die Bevölkerung und das Dorf wurden hierbei ebenfalls in Mitleidenschaft gezogen. Bei diesem Angriff wurde die im 13. Jahrhundert erbaute Kirche zerstört.

Hessische Gebietsreform (1970–1977)

Zum 1. April 1972 wurde Rörshain im Zuge der Gebietsreform in Hessen auf freiwilliger Basis ein Stadtteil von Schwalmstadt. Für die ehemals eigenständigen Städte und Gemeinden von Schwalmstadt wurde je ein Ortsbezirk mit Ortsbeirat und Ortsvorsteher nach der Hessischen Gemeindeordnung gebildet.

Verwaltungsgeschichte im Überblick
Die folgende Liste zeigt die Staaten und Verwaltungseinheiten, in denen Rörshain lag:

 vor 1450: Heiliges Römisches Reich, Grafschaft Ziegenhain (Gericht auf den Wasen)
 ab 1450: Heiliges Römisches Reich, Landgrafschaft Hessen, Amt Ziegenhain
 ab 1567: Heiliges Römisches Reich, Landgrafschaft Hessen-Kassel, Amt Ziegenhain
 1623–1636: Heiliges Römisches Reich, Landgrafschaft Hessen-Darmstadt (Pfandschaft), Amt Ziegenhain
 ab 1806: Landgrafschaft Hessen-Kassel, Grafschaft Ziegenhain, Amt Ziegenhain
 1807–1813: Königreich Westphalen, Departement der Werra, Distrikt Hersfeld, Kanton Ziegenhain
 ab 1815: Kurfürstentum Hessen, Grafschaft Ziegenhain, Amt Ziegenhain
 ab 1821: Kurfürstentum Hessen, Provinz Oberhessen, Kreis Ziegenhain
 ab 1848: Kurfürstentum Hessen, Bezirk Fritzlar
 ab 1851: Kurfürstentum Hessen, Provinz Oberhessen, Kreis Ziegenhain
 ab 1867: Königreich Preußen, Provinz Hessen-Nassau, Regierungsbezirk Kassel, Kreis Ziegenhain
 ab 1871: Deutsches Reich,  Königreich Preußen, Provinz Hessen-Nassau, Regierungsbezirk Kassel, Kreis Ziegenhain
 ab 1918: Deutsches Reich, Freistaat Preußen, Provinz Hessen-Nassau, Regierungsbezirk Kassel, Kreis Ziegenhain
 ab 1944: Deutsches Reich, Freistaat Preußen, Provinz Kurhessen, Landkreis Ziegenhain
 ab 1945: Amerikanische Besatzungszone, Groß-Hessen, Regierungsbezirk Kassel, Landkreis Ziegenhain
 ab 1949: Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Land Hessen (seit 1946), Regierungsbezirk Kassel, Landkreis Ziegenhain
 ab 1974: Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Land Hessen, Regierungsbezirk Kassel, Schwalm-Eder-Kreis

Mühlen
Ursprünglich befanden sich zwei Mühlen, die Hardtmühle und Zeigerichsmühle, im Talgrund der Gers. Die 1799 erbaute Zeigerichsmühle befindet sich seit 1986 im Freilichtmuseum Hessenpark in Neu-Anspach im Hochtaunuskreis. Durch diese Umsetzung konnte die zwischenzeitlich stark baufällig gewordene Mühle als Baudenkmal erhalten werden. Das Haus wird heute als Hessische Uhrmacherschule genutzt.

Bevölkerung

Einwohnerstruktur 2011
Nach den Erhebungen des Zensus 2011 lebten am Stichtag dem 9. Mai 2011 in Rörshain 255 Einwohner. Darunter waren keine Ausländer.
Nach dem Lebensalter waren 39 Einwohner unter 18 Jahren, 99 zwischen 18 und 49, 63 zwischen 50 und 64 und 57 Einwohner waren älter. Die Einwohner lebten in 105 Haushalten. Davon waren 27 Singlehaushalte, 33 Paare ohne Kinder und 39 Paare mit Kindern, sowie 6 Alleinerziehende und keine Wohngemeinschaften. In 24 Haushalten lebten ausschließlich Senioren und in 63 Haushaltungen lebten keine Senioren.

Einwohnerentwicklung

Historische Erwerbstätigkeit

Historische Religionszugehörigkeit

Kultur und Sehenswürdigkeiten
Die heutige Kirche wurde in den Jahren 1948 bis 1951 neu erbaut. Die aus dem 13. Jahrhundert stammende romanische Kirche fiel am 24. März 1945 einem Bombardement des nahegelegenen ehemaligen Militärflugplatzes zum Opfer.

Für die Kulturdenkmäler des Ortes siehe Liste der Kulturdenkmäler in Rörshain.

Literatur
 HOL Ziegenhain, S. 159 f.
 Reimer, Ortslexikon, S. 399

Einzelnachweise

Weblinks
 Stadtteil Rörshain. In: Webauftritt der Stadt Schwalmstadt.

Ortsbezirk von Schwalmstadt
Ehemalige Gemeinde (Schwalm-Eder-Kreis)
Ersterwähnung 1238
Gemeindeauflösung 1972
Ort im Schwalm-Eder-Kreis


text:
export interface CartItemListModel{
    image: String;
    name:string;
    price:string;
    descriptions:string;
    qty:number;
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub