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Futures Studies
Futures Studies is a field of academic research and a consultancy activity. There have always been futurists among us, but the field as it is today has its origins in post-World War II strategic think-tanks. Over the last fifty years, it has grown to encompass a wide range of approaches and ideals.
Across the spectrum of Futures Studies, though, there is one core principle: the future cannot be predicted.
As futurist Stuart Candy puts it: 'The future does not exist. The ultimate reason to engage in futures work, then, and especially to create scenarios — which are merely tools to help us think — is to enrich our perceptions and options in the evolving present. More concretely, of course, it is an instrument for mitigating risks and finding new opportunities.'
Futures studies is an active process of identifying trends, contemplating possibilities and sketching scenarios. It's a complex and multi-faceted field that draws on history, earth system sciences, politics and sociology.
What futurists provide is not a prophetic timeline of the years to come, but a range of scenarios that embody the different directions our society might go in. Futurists offer a sense of the consequences of our decisions and actions.
The value of this practice is not in the accuracy of any given future scenario, but from having a range of them, showing us the likely extremes and bounding our expectations.
As futurist Daniel Bell wrote back in 1967, 'What is central… to the present future studies is not an effort to 'predict' the future, as if this were some far-flung rug of time unrolling to some distant point, but the effort to sketch 'alternative futures' — in other words, the likely results of different choices, so that the polity can understand costs and consequences of different desires.'
Posted in 3.02. Futures Studies on May 1, 2014 by davidfinig. Leave a comment
What do Futurists do?
Students at the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies experiment with political sloganeering. Image thanks to John Sweeney.
Futurists use a range of tools and methods to generate forecasts of the future. Jim Dator of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies says 'Futures studies as an academic and as a consulting activity is based on the identification and analysis of images of the futures; theories of social stability and change; methods of social forecasting and design; the monitoring of continuing trends and the identification of emerging issues which might alter those trends or create new ones.'
Perhaps the definitive tool in the futurist's kit, and the thing that distinguishes contemporary futurists from their historical predecessors, is the practice of generating multiple future scenarios.
Dator explains: 'A forecast is intended to be a logical statement, a useful statement, about the futures. Futures thus are plural, alternative, diverse, possible… Thus we speak of possible "alternative futures" and not "THE future" as though it were a pre-existing entity "out there" waiting to be predicted.'
The futurists' response to the impossible task of trying to anticipate the future is to generate a range of future scenarios, seeking to capture the spectrum of possibility and be prepared for whatever happens.
Futurists such as James A. Ogilvy argue that by adopting the 'scenaric stance' and holding multiple futures in view simultaneously, practitioners achieve a kind of emotional and intellectual maturity that is not available to either the simple optimist or the simple pessimist.
'Yes, things could turn out badly. But, no, that is not in itself reason for inaction. Yes, things could turn out very well, but, no, that is not in itself reason for foolish bravado. By holding in mind several different futures at once, one is able to proceed deliberately yet flexibly; resolutely yet cautiously… He or she who sees no opportunities is blind. He or she who senses no threats is foolish. But he or she who sees both threats and opportunities shining forth in rich and vivid scenarios may just be able to make the choices and implement the plans that will take us to the high road and beyond.'
Although technically there is no limit to the hypothetical alternative futures we could imagine, in practice practitioners tend to limit their speculation to a few archetypal scenarios – typically, four: Continued Growth, Collapse, Discipline, and Transformation.
Jim Dator justifies this practice by saying, 'Over the years, we have learned that all of the billions of images of the future that exist in the minds and actions of humans can be lumped into four "generic" images of the futures that serve as motivations for human individual and group behavior. Whenever we are asked, "so what is the future," we reply, "there are four alternative futures."
These four scenario archetypes are used by a majority of the world's scientists; for instance, the International Panel on Climate Change's report on the impacts of climate change depicts four possible future scenarios for the planet, depending on the rate of greenhouse gas emissions.
In practice, Futures Studies is a continuous process of forecasting alternative futures, envisioning preferred futures and identifying pathways to move toward them. Outside of academia, futurists are often employed by large corporations to look ahead and anticipate challenges and opportunities in the company's medium to long-term future.
'Futures studies is related to but different from planning and policy-making,' argues Dator, 'just as planning and policy-making are related to but different from day-to-day administration. Just as day-to-day administration should be guided by prior planning and policies, so also should planning and policies be guided by prior futures foresight activities.'
Posted in 3.03. What do Futurists do? on May 1, 2014 by davidfinig. Leave a comment
What is the value of Futures Studies?
So, are the tools and methods of futurists actually applicable to people outside of academia?
I can see several clear benefits to our adopting some of the practices of futures studies in our everyday lives.
We grant ourselves a richer and more mature perspective on our actions when we include the future perspective in our planning and decision-making.
By adopting the scenaric stance and anticipating and preparing for a range of possible futures, we are able to take a more proactive approach, instigating and driving change rather than waiting for it to come to us. As Candy says, 'The future is not predictable, but it can in some ways be shaped. This is not a class in predicting change, it's a crash course in participating in change, more mindfully and effectively.'
The act of envisioning what future scenarios might be possible in the coming years and decades, given where we are today, is a valuable imaginative act. By giving us a space to envision what kind of future we want, we can be aspirational rather than critical. Professor Steve Duncombe points out that, 'These impossible dreams open up a space for democratic participation in the process of imagining the future, which also offers the possibility of escaping the tyranny of the present… for people to imagine, 'why not?', and 'what if?"
Finally, there's a measure of compassion that comes with asking ourselves the futures-informed question: Are we being good ancestors?
Posted in 3.04. What is the value of Futures Studies? on May 1, 2014 by davidfinig. Leave a comment
Experiential Futures
99c Futures. From the Extrapolation Factory website.
While the tools and techniques of future studies have been adopted by many corporations and policy-makers over the last two decades, there has been very little engagement with the wider public. People are often unaware that futurists exist, let alone understand what it is they do. The result is an unfortunate disconnect, which separates the public from the valuable tools Futures Studies offers to help us think about and plan for the future.
In the last few years, a convergence of ideas and practice has led to the emergence of a new way of doing futures, one that sidesteps intellectual discussion in favour of provoking more emotional responses.
A diverse selection of visual art, films, theatre performances, digital games and artistic interventions has been gathered under the banner of 'Experiential Futures'. The term, coined by futurist Stuart Candy and adopted by Bruce Sterling, Anab Jain and others, refers to the practice of embodying elements of hypothetical future scenarios through visual media, film, industrial design, theatre and gaming.
The last two years has seen an increase in this kind of practice, which seeks to 'de-abstractify' how the future might look using the tools and techniques of the arts.
From large-scale participatory theatre works involving thousands of participants, to corporate videos promoting as-yet-nonexistent technologies, to 'future artifacts' installed as guerilla artworks in urban spaces, the Experiential Futures label includes work in any creative medium.
Procession for cyborg saint Santa Ste.la as part of the 2011 Lecturas de Cruce ('Crossing Lectures') on the US-Mexico border
The guiding principle connecting and underpinning these projects is the idea of manifesting some aspect of a hypothetical future in the present day. Rather than communicating ideas about the future verbally, practitioners seek to create an 'experience' of the future for their audiences / viewers / participants.
'Given that future scenarios have no factual, "evidentiary" referents per se,' says Stuart Candy, 'Experiential scenarios and artifacts afford people the rudiments of a common vocabulary, a virtual shared experience, however basic, around which their contributions can cohere, and push off in discussion.'
From the futurist perspective, the intent behind these works is to prompt conversation or reflection around the idea of the future. The artistic intention, meanwhile, is to use Futures Studies ideas to generate works of art that are emotive and effective.
At its core, the practice of Experiential Futures is fundamentally inter-disciplinary. The artist needs the futurist's insights and strategies of in order to meaningfully convey anything about the future. And the futurist needs the artist's creative and design skills in order to convey those insights in an effective and accessible way.
One of the major challenges in creating an Experiential Futures work is to strike an effective balance between the ideas and the form. If the science is prioritised over the art, or vice versa, the work may end up either:
Aesthetically rich but analytically impoverished, OR
Intellectually rich but creatively uninteresting
The only way to negotiate those difficulties is to dive in and begin.
Posted in 3.05. Experiential Futures on May 1, 2014 by davidfinig. Leave a comment
CASE STUDY: Hawaii 2050 / 2060
Experiential Futures works have been produced since the 1970s, starting with The Great Hawaiian Jubilee, but one of the mot elaborate was the Hawaii 2050 event held in Honolulu in 2005.
Hawaiian state legislators approached the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies (HRCFS) about launching a broad-based public conversation around sustainability, focusing on the year 2050.
HRCFS staff Jim Dator, Stuart Candy and Jake Dunagan created a series of four experiential scenarios in different spaces throughout the recycled Dole Cannery. Each room was designed and staged with the help of a group of improvising performers to afford the participants (up to 150 at a time) a half-hour experience of a different version of Hawaii's future. Stuart Candy described the event as 'a sort of theatrical hybrid of theme park ride and role playing exercise.'
Each room depicted one of the four archetypal future scenarios described by the HRCFS: Growth, Collapse, Discipline and Transformation, and how it played out in the context of Honolulu in 2050.
The Growth scenario depicted a live debate between two candidates for Governor of Hawaii in a future where corporations had been granted the rights of personhood. The Collapse room enacted an induction ceremony for climate refugees in a future where Hawaii is run by the military. In the Discipline scenario, economic collapse had been avoided by returning to a back-to-nature communitarian form of society, and the half-hour scenario depicted a Civic Education Center where Hawaiians learned traditional methods of subsisting from the land. Finally, the Transformation scenario took place in a private hospital which offered futuristic body modification options and genetic therapies.
Each of the 530 participants experienced two of the experiential scenarios, followed by facilitated discussions in small groups.
The purpose of the scenarios was to provide the participants with material to inform the discussions, shared reference points for the conversation. The response from participants surveyed after the workshop was extremely favourable, supporting the hypothesis that this kind of immersive experience stimulates both brain and body, leading to richer and more rewarding engagement with the subject.
In his 2010 PhD dissertation, Stuart Candy described the Hawaii 2050 event as only a partial success. Although the popular response to the event was extremely positive, subsequent consultation activities retreated to a much more traditional – and in Candy's assessment, less effective – form of futures visioning.
Nevertheless, the popularity of the Hawaii 2050 workshop prompted a state legislator to approach the Center in 2011 and asked them to create an experiential futures program for the state government looking at climate change.
Hawaii 2060 was a two-day event run jointly by the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies and facilitator Donna Ching. On the first day, the Center created four experiential futures scenarios along similar lines to the Hawaii 2050 event. On the second day, Donna Ching took over as facilitator and held a more traditional butchers-paper-and-pens type workshop, trying to identify preferred futures and pathways to achieve them.
This project resulted in a report which was submitted to the Hawaiian State Government and which led to a piece of legislation requiring all government program and state development projects to include a climate change mitigation strategy.
The success of the Hawaii 2060 event in effecting a change in the state's legislation prompts interesting reflections on involving the government in these kinds of exercises. Was the legislative outcome the result of the adoption of an experiential futures approach? Or was the involvement of experiential futures practitioners the result of a particularly foresighted group of policy-makers? Either way, the event hints at the importance of policy-maker involvement in projects from an early stage.
These images from the Hawaii 2050 event are from Stuart Candy's blog – I highly recommend taking a look.
Posted in 3.06. CASE STUDY: Hawaii 2050/60 on May 1, 2014 by davidfinig. Leave a comment
CASE STUDY: ZED.TO
Large-scale trans-media futurism exercise ZED.TO was a nine-month project created by Toronto creative collective The Mission Business over 2012. Explicitly drawing on the principles of experiential futures articulated by the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, The Mission Business used live-action and digital storytelling experiences to engage theatre audiences, game players, and the broader public in an exploration of what it might feel like to live in one possible future.
The central conceit of ZED.TO was the rise and fall of ByoLogyc, a fictional corporation whose synthetic biology and genetic engineering practices evoke the tensions and concerns currently arising from the commercialisation of research into viral therapies and subscription based personalised medicine.
Over the course of the nine month story, ByoLogyc releases a new personalised healthcare platform called ByoRenew — a "software update for your immune system" activated by ingesting a single pill. ByoRenew is sabotaged upon release by an activist organisation opposed to the corporation. The result is a lethal pandemic which quickly spreads beyond the corporation's desperate attempts to control it.
ZED.TO took place over four key live events throughout 2012, supported by an ongoing and diverse stream of online activity. Public involvement built over the course of 2012 until there were thousands of participants engaging across the spectrum of forms. Each of these 'performance tentpoles' mapped to one of the four future images articulated by Jim Dator and the HRCFS:
The first event (Continuation) was an invitation-only launch for the company's new line of products held in a gallery, offered to a select group of VIPs.
The second event (Transformational), taking place as part of the Toronto Fringe Festival, offered audiences the chance to take part in ByoLogyc's intern program, giving them tasks and responsibilities within the company and allowing them to sample the company's products. This event also signaled the initial outbreak of the lethally mutated version of ByoRenew.
The third live event (Disciplined) took the form of an immunisation clinic open to the public during Toronto's 'Nuit Blanche' event, illustrating the corporation's efforts to contain the spread of the disease.
The final phase of the story (Collapse) was a ticketed performance event for 350 participants taking place in an abandoned brickworks outside the city, which represented the company's final stand against the outbreak: a kind of corporate concentration camp for victims of the pandemic, defending itself against attacks by the paramilitary wing of the anarchist protest organisation.
The core creative team of The Mission Business coordinated a huge range of creative collaborators and unfolded the story simultaneously through multiple mediums. The success and popularity of the work indicates the effectiveness of the trans-media form and the resonance of the themes.
It is significant that the Mission Business, consisting of artists from live performance and gaming backgrounds, explicitly adopted the strategic foresight methods advocated by futurists in the creation of the work. ZED.TO is perhaps the first major project where ideas from Futures Studies have been put into practice by professional artists, rather than by futurists adopting some artistic practices or creative collaborators.
In his research paper exploring ZED.TO, Mission Business member Trevor Haldenby examines the challenges of manifesting the work as both a rewarding performance experience and as a scientifically informed work of experiential futures. 'During the production of ZED.TO, I struggled to find a way to transform game-like audience experiences into more rigorous and methodologically aligned research exercises. Sustainably integrating an entertainment experience and research practice is a tall order.'
Nevertheless, it is clear from the dialogue around ZED.TO (captured in online reviews, alternate-reality games forums and personal responses) that the work prompted numerous and thoughtful reflections on the future, and argues for the more central role of artists in constructing meaningful futures scenarios.
Posted in 3.07. CASE STUDY: ZED.TO on May 1, 2014 by davidfinig. Leave a comment
CASE STUDY: FutureCoast
The FutureCoast project, created by the PoLAR Partnership at Columbia University and funded by the US National Science Foundation, is a participatory storytelling game that adopts an Experiential Futures perspective.
The FutureCoast website contains a selection of audio recordings, purporting to be 'voice mails' recorded between 2020-2065, that have somehow made their way back in time and are audible now. Each message provides a small glimpse into the future it purports to be from, usually focusing on the impacts of climate change.
People are invited to upload their own voice mails to the FutureCoast website, contributing to the bulletin board-style aesthetic of the website.
The strength of large-scale participatory work such as this is that it offers a porous space for public engagement. It can be challenging, however, to curate and maintain a quality standard across this platform. Nevertheless, FutureCoast experienced a high uptake in both contributors and audiences.
Posted in 3.08. CASE STUDY: FutureCoast on May 1, 2014 by davidfinig. Leave a comment
CASE STUDY: Guerilla Futures
A very different approach is advocated in the course summary for the University of Hawaii's Underground Futures Studies degree*: 'Guerilla Futures: systematically picture how alternative worlds could unfold; manifest your own visions playfully and compellingly in a range of media; and make these narratives available in the real world, via live urban interventions for unsuspecting audiences to encounter.'
The result of these Guerilla Futures projects often include street art referencing events that haven't happened yet, installations in public spaces (often including 'future artifacts') and occasionally, monuments to future tragedies or achievements.
Along similar lines are the Blue Line Projects, which have been carried out in various cities around the world. The execution varies but the core idea is quite simple: a blue line is traced (using chalk, or paint, or tape, or sometimes projected) through the streets of the city, showing where sea level is expected to be by the end of the century if global warming continues.
Where they have sought city approval, these projects have often experienced severe backlash from real estate developers, property councils and other businesses who may suffer financially if waterfront properties are perceived to be less permanent. However, the simplicity of the project means that it can be carried out with virtually no resources and planning by community groups and activists.
In one such example in Santa Barbara, where the property council's aggressive reaction resulted in the community group being refused permission for the project, anonymous activists protested the decision by drawing the line anyway. The end result, thanks to the controversy and public debate, was that the population of Santa Barbara became significantly more aware of the implications of sea level rise for their city.
The immediacy of this kind of work for the viewer really captures some of the essence of the Experiential Futures tag. Though the nature of guerilla art means that most passers-by do not engage with it, those that do engage will experience these ideas in a very unusual context, and the simple fact of their surprise may stimulate them to reflect on and consider these ideas more thoughtfully than if they had read them in a book or seen them in a TV documentary.
*Now also, I'm pleased to see, being offered at OCAD University in Toronto, by none other than Stuart Candy.
Posted in 3.09. CASE STUDY: Guerilla Futures on May 1, 2014 by davidfinig. Leave a comment
CASE STUDY: 10,000 Year Clock
The Long Now Foundation's 10,000 year clock is not an aspect of the future manifesting in the present, but it shares with Experiential Futures work an interest in encouraging people to reflect on the future.
The Long Now Foundation is dedicated to the task of making people think in longer timeframes than they are used to. The Foundation's flagship project is the creation of a clock that ticks once a year, which will run for 10,000 years. The clock is currently under construction, and will be installed in a mountain in East Texas.
From the Foundation's website: 'Why would anyone build a Clock inside a mountain with the hope that it will ring for 10,000 years? Part of the answer: just so people will ask this question, and having asked it, prompt themselves to conjure with notions of generations and millennia. If you have a Clock ticking for 10,000 years what kinds of generational-scale questions and projects will it suggest? If a Clock can keep going for ten millennia, shouldn't we make sure our civilization does as well?'
Posted in 3.10. CASE STUDY: 10000 Year Clock on May 1, 2014 by davidfinig. Leave a comment
CASE STUDY: Reporting from the Future
In 2008, political activists / mischief-makers the Yes Men carried out a major stunt, producing and distributing 1.2 million copies of a 'special edition' of the New York Times. The Yes Men's alternative NY Times perfectly replicated the design and layout of the original, but with a telling edit to the Times' motto, from 'All the news that's fit to print' to 'All the news we hope to print'.
The content of the fake NY Times was as aspirational as the Yes Men's motto suggested: front page headlines included 'Iraq War Ends', 'Ex-Secretary Apologises for WMD Scare', 'Maximum Wage Law Succeeds' and 'Nation Sets Its Sights On Building Sane Economy'.
Along with the laudable attention to detail and the amount of planning evident in the stunt, one of the most interesting things about the NY Times Special Edition was when it happened. The special edition hit the streets on 12 November 2008, but the newspaper itself was dated 4 July 2009.
So the Yes Men were reporting from the future?
The NY Times Special Edition is a vivid example of a particular stream of Experiential Futures practice, in which news outlets briefly disconnect from their ongoing stream of updates from as-close-to-the-present-as-possible, and instead deliver a report from a moment somewhere in the future.
The Yes Men's wildly aspirational, almost euphoric vision of 2009 made it clear that they were less concerned with making realistic future predictions than with prompting a call to action. Their dazzling alternative to the dismal futures currently being debated by politicians was at first glance absurd, but so richly detailed that readers couldn't help asking themselves, 'Why not?'
The other examples of newspapers reporting from the future come from cities that share a key trait with the Yes Men: an urgent need to imagine a better future, prompted by a disastrous situation in the present.
In 2013, two years after a massive earthquake devastated the city, Christchurch newspaper The Press produced an edition of the paper reporting from 2031. Articles covered New Zealand politics, city planning, the impacts of climate change, local Christchurch sports and arts, from the perspective of 20 years after the earthquake.
The aim of the exercise was to prompt Christchurch citizens to look beyond the recent disaster and to 'Rally, protest, cheer, plant . . . do something that changes the future.'
Photo of Salon de Thé Facebook, Tunis, shared on Twitter by @WadhahJebri on February 16, 2011 and recirculated with the #16juin2014 hashtag.
But perhaps the most striking instance of this kind of future journalism took place in Tunisia in 2011. Following the Sidi Bouzid Revolt in January 2011 which ousted the president, the country experienced a national strike which halted economic activity, and the transition government swiftly lost the confidence and goodwill of the people.
A Tunisian ad agency, Memac Ogilvy Label Tunisia, embarked on a campaign to convince Tunisia's media outlets to join together for one day to report the news from 2014, three years in the future.
'We needed to find a way to encourage the people to get back to work and start rebuilding the country we had all fought for. … So we decided to show everyone how bright our future could be if we all started building it now. … During a whole day, the media acted as if it were June 16th 2014 and presented Tunisia as a prosperous, modern and democratic country. … The media content spread to social media via 16juin2014.com and people began to imagine wonderful futures and called everyone for action. #16juin2014 hashtag was n°1 top trend topic on Twitter all day long. At 6pm, the debate was everywhere on TV, radios, blogs… Getting back to work quickly became an act of resistance.'
When I visited the 16 Juin 2014 website (sadly no longer active), what struck me about the news being reported was how uneventful it was. The major news item was about a 'shopping festival', in the town of Kasserine, featuring appearances by several fashion VIPs. Compared with the ambitious targets set by the Yes Men in their headline stories, it seems slightly unambitious.
But then, given the turmoil that spread across the country just several months before these articles were written, perhaps 'uneventful' is ambitious enough.
Front page of La Presse on February 16, 2011.
NOTE: I want to interject here briefly to mention that I adapted this case study into a longer stand-alone article on rhizome.org. The Rhizome piece benefited greatly from the editorial contribution of Michael Conor, and it digs a little deeper into some of the underlying issue around this kind of activism. If you're interested, please check it out.
Posted in 3.11. CASE STUDY: Reporting from the Future on May 1, 2014 by davidfinig. Leave a comment


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Frank Lloyd Wright's Falling Water House Saved (at Enormous Cost)
By Lloyd Kahn on October 10, 2019
I was a FLW fan in the early '60s. We went to Taliesin West (on the same trip, hung out a bit with Paolo Soleri at his compound in Scottsdale, where he had just built this beautiful underground grotto/studio). Slept on the deck of a burned-down FLW house nearby. Visited the house (in Pasadena?) with imprinted concrete blocks and also got a tour of a home in Marin County by a guy named Berger who built it himself.
So FLW's engineering sucked. He was an artist!
This was sent in by Ed today. For the thread that started the FLW conversation, see comments on this post: My Little Hut in the Woods
SunRay's Treehouse Masterpiece
House Made of Hemp Panels in UK
Louie's New Sauna on Wheels
Tags: architecture, building
4 Responses to Frank Lloyd Wright's Falling Water House Saved (at Enormous Cost)
I really don't want to start a flame war on Frank Lloyd Wright, because I believe that his buildings are among the most beautiful of the 20th Century. However, I am uneasy with this deeply flawed man who created structurally unsound beauty, then left his unfortunate clients to pick up the costs of fixing the results of his ignorance or arrogance.
In the 1st Century BC, the Roman architect Vitruvius said that the three requirements of architecture were Firmness, Commodity and Delight; that a building should be structurally sound, should do what it was intended to do and that it should be beautiful. FLW's buildings excelled in Commodity and Delight, but often failed miserably in Firmness.
There is no excuse for an architect to create beautiful buildings that are structurally unsound. As the "conductor" of the "orchestra" that creates a building, the architect should know enough to consult other professionals, such as structural engineers, whenever necessary. He/she should not just plow ahead, operating by guesswork and misplaced confidence in areas of uncertainty. An architect who creates a beautiful but leaky building can still receive the highest awards of the profession and be assured of a steady stream of wealthy clients. A civil engineer who creates a beautiful bridge which collapses is finished!
Maui Surfer says:
I studied engineering in college, had classes with Hank Pfisterer who was engineer for many of Saarinen's designs. Saarinen would win a commission with a fancy design and then ask Pfisterer "how are we ever going to build this?" Take a look at the Ingall's hockey rink at Yale. Examine the steel joints holding up the corners of the thin shell concrete Kresge auditorium at MIT.
https://www.archdaily.com/492176/ad-classics-kresge-auditorium-eero-saarinen-and-associates
I remember when they were planning the construction of the big parking garage in New Haven, and they wanted to pour all the concrete in one big pour, so that there would be fewer seams. Pfisterer concluded that all the concrete trucks in the state of Connecticut were not enough to do the job.
Lloyd Kahn says:
Peter, I agree.
have read that FLW never did complete a degree, (started in engineering…) let alone an architecture degree. And, that after a time, he apprenticed as a goffer in an architecture firm. Then believing himself more talented and skilled than all, set out to conquer the architecture of the time/future. His lack of solid education in the field, and solid training in the field would go some ways to explaining his non understanding of "structural" issues. On the other hand, many "regular" folks, many carpenters, many non builders do have a good sense of when a roof might fall down, or a building might slide over a cliff…..
Could not find a lot definite on his education and training…wiki has a bit
" Madison High School; left (many say without graduating )1885. In 1886, he was admitted to the University of Wisconsin–Madison. took classes part-time for two semesters, and worked with Allan D. Conover, a professor of civil engineering. Wright left the school without taking a degree."
From Architecural Digest (really, he actually was not qualified, so it is no surprise) "Wright was vehemently against the American Institute of Architects (AIA). — Wright was famous for his disdain for other architects, and refused to join the AIA"
Yupprs, I agree with Peter
Please use your real name instead of your company name or keyword spam.
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Chicken Coops Made With (Mostly) Recycled Wood For Sale May 11, 2012
Drunken Catfish Ramblers Jug Band (Without a Jug) May 11, 2012
Mr. Sharkey's Housetruck May 9, 2012
Private Island With Two Small Cabins For Sale in Maine – $229,000 May 9, 2012
Back Home May 9, 2012
Mama's in the alley and she's got no shoes… May 9, 2012
Whimsical Playhouse May 7, 2012
Master Masons of Duluth (Close-up) May 7, 2012
Shed Roof Framework May 7, 2012
Deadhead SUV in Minnesota May 7, 2012
Carpenter's Carryall Truck May 7, 2012
Mark Hansen – Prolific Builder May 6, 2012
Slide Show Last Night at North House Folk School May 6, 2012
Moroccan Bow Lathe Turner May 6, 2012
Canoe Trip in Boundary Waters May 5, 2012
Garden at Home the Day I Left on This Trip May 5, 2012
Stone House on River Northeast of Grand Marais, Minnesota May 5, 2012
Photo Trip This Afternoon May 4, 2012
North House Folk School May 3, 2012
The Sky Is Crying/Albert King May 3, 2012
Flatt & Scruggs perform "Foggy Mountain Breakdown," 1965 May 2, 2012
5-Min. Video Shot When Tiny Homes Was in Production May 2, 2012
Some Pics in Grand Marais Last Night May 2, 2012
Tom's Logging Camp May 2, 2012
Apple Tree in Garden the Day I Left for Minnesota May 2, 2012
Meet the Tiny House Family Who Built an Amazing Mini Home for Just $12,000 May 2, 2012
When The Cactus Is In Bloom/Jimmie Rodgers May 1, 2012
Highway 61 Revisited Phase 1 May 1, 2012
Brick Masons of Old Duluth May 1, 2012
Not-for-the-faint-hearted Treehouse High in the Woods in BC May 1, 2012
Hotel in a Brewery Built in the 1800s May 1, 2012
Two Photos From Island in BC May 1, 2012
Paul's Row/Sail Boat May 1, 2012
Dane & Leah's 396-Foot Craigslist Kingdom April 29, 2012
Lady on Harley Yesterday in Victoria April 28, 2012
Sleepless in Vancouver April 28, 2012
Big Rocks April 28, 2012
Good Food at Buckley Bay April 28, 2012
Bruno's Wheelbarrow Barbecue and Shake-bottomed Chair April 28, 2012
A Boatbuilders' Tools April 28, 2012
Bruno Atkey's Ola Suerte April 28, 2012
Boats and Blues in Victoria April 28, 2012
Japanese Garden in Long Island, NY April 28, 2012
Stunning House April 27, 2012
Godfrey's 12\′ Sailboat April 27, 2012
Godfrey Stephens Painting! April 27, 2012
Snow to Surf Relay Race April 26, 2012
Earthen Built in North Cowichan, Vancouver Island, BC April 26, 2012
Small Homes, Tiny Flats & Wee Shelters by Kirsten Dirksen April 26, 2012
Angry Seas April 25, 2012
Small Homes In Mulege, Baja California Sur April 25, 2012
Happy Trails, Levon April 24, 2012
Slide Show Last Night on Denman Island April 24, 2012
When A Seal Jumpe

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Shin splints are a common name for tibial stress syndrome, which results in pain in the shin bone or tibia of the lower leg. The tibia is the main bone that takes the stress of the lower leg when running or doing sports. Shin splints are especially common in people who are on their feet a lot such as runners, those fresh in the military, and dancers.
This is common in athletes who have just altered their training and have intensified the pressure they put on their legs. This results in excess stress on the tendons, bones, and muscles of the lower leg, leading to overwork of the legs and increased pain. Many times, shin splints can be treated with home remedies such as ice, rest and anti-inflammatory medication, such as naproxen sodium and ibuprofen. It usually means you have to change your exercise routine so that the problem doesn't come back again.
Shin splints, as mentioned, usually occurs in athletes. Common symptoms include aching and tenderness along the front and inner part of the lower leg where the tibia is located. You can have shin splints on one or both legs and mild swelling of the affected area is not unexpected. You usually notice the pain more when you are exercising or running but, if you persist in doing the activity, the pain may not go away and can be present at rest.
Those who play sporting activities on a hard surface and must undergo sudden stops and starts during the course of play.
Those who are runners and who have just started running or have just intensified their training program.
Those in the military who must march for many hours at a time.
Those who must run or walk on uneven terrain, such as cross-country runners or those who run on sandy beaches.
Doctors can diagnose shin splints by doing a careful history of the problem and a good physical examination. Sometimes an x-ray or bone scan is done to rule out the possibility you may have another cause of your tibial pain, such as a stress fracture of the tibia.
Rest as much as you can. You need to stay away from any activity that worsens the discomfort, pain, and swelling and you can turn instead to low-impact activities like water aerobics, water running, swimming, and bicycling. These do not put excess pressure on the tibial area.
Apply ice to the painful area. You can put ice packs on the shin for up to 30 minutes at a time for 4-8 times per day several days in a row. Make sure you avoid putting bare ice on the skin and use a cloth or towel to protect the skin from getting burned.
You can use nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory medication. This includes ibuprofen (marketed as Motrin and Advil) or naproxen sodium (marketed as Naprosyn and Aleve). Acetaminophen (marketed as Tylenol) will reduce the pain but won't do anything for the inflammation.
As the pain is lessened, you can gradually go back to your sporting activities. If it hasn't completely healed, however, the pain may come right back.


text:
WSAR (1480 AM) is a commercial radio station licensed to Fall River, Massachusetts. Its studios and transmitter site are located in Somerset, Massachusetts. Its transmitter power output is 5,000 watts unlimited hours, using two towers in a fulltime directional pattern.

Programming
WSAR's format is news/talk and sports. It used to be a full-service music station playing top 40 music. It carries live game coverage for the Boston Red Sox, New England Patriots and the Boston Celtics.

History

WSAR was first licensed on July 3, 1923, to the Doughty & Welch Electric Company in Fall River, on 1180 kHz with 10 watts. The call letters were randomly assigned from a sequential roster of available call signs. (Some station histories list a start date of September 21, 1921, however this is inconsistent with contemporary records, and Doughty & Welch later described a June 20, 1923, test transmission as the "first Fall River broadcast of radio music".) In 1924, power was increased to 100 watts. In 1926, WSAR's slogan was reported to be the town's traditional "Fall River Looms Up".

Beginning in mid-1926, there was a period when adverse legal decisions led to the U.S. government temporarily losing its authority to assign transmitting frequencies. Taking advantage of this lapse, WSAR was reported to be on a self-assigned frequency of around 930 kHz as of December 31, 1926.

In 1927, following the restoration of government authority by the creation of the Federal Radio Commission (FRC), WSAR was assigned to 1190 kHz. The station briefly moved to Portsmouth, Rhode Island, before returning to Fall River. Toward the end of the year, the station was assigned to 1410 kHz, and on November 11, 1928, based on the guidelines of the FRC's General Order 40, was assigned to 1450 kHz with 250 watts. In 1937 the power was increased to 1,000 watts.

With the implementation of the North American Regional Broadcasting Agreement, effective 3:00 a.m. Eastern Time on March 29, 1941, the stations on 1450 kHz, including WSAR, were moved to 1480 kHz. In 1941–42 WSAR was an affiliate of the Boston Red Sox and Boston Braves networks. In 1944, the Doughty & Welch Electric Company sold WSAR to The Fall River Broadcasting Company.

In 1946 the owners were issued a construction permit for WSAR-FM at 96.5 MHz, which was later changed to 103.7 MHz. This station began making broadcasts under an "interim operation" authorization, but was deleted on April 18, 1949, due to an inability to acquire "a satisfactory FM audience" and "lack of interest in FM and rapid growth of television".

In 1948, WSAR was a Mutual affiliate with 5,000 watts of power.

WSAR was sold by Knight Quality Stations to the current owners in 1989.

Paul Giammarco took over as program director and afternoon host in 2003.  In 2005 he left for WPRO with Keri Rodrigues taking his position until her tenure ended in August 2008.  Rodrigues' afternoon drive seat was filled by then-Production Director "Fast" Eddie Garcia and sports-talk personality "The Hurricane" Mike Herren. The role of Program Director was handled by several people, including Patrick Stone, who exited for a marketing post with Bristol Community College in Fall River, and then at Rhode Island Community College in 2017.

After several on-air confrontations, Fast Eddie and the Hurricane was disbanded, with Herren remaining as the afternoon drive host, and Garcia returning full-time to producing. The new program was dubbed The Hurricane's Highway Home, with Herren adding co-host Ryan Phelan. Phelan left the station in the spring of 2010 after accepting a position with Bristol Eighth District Mike Rodrigues' State Senate campaign to replace the retiring Joan Menard.  Herren's program was cancelled soon after.

Late in the summer of 2008, WSAR remodeled its webpage, adding streaming audio, mobile streaming, and podcasts of interviews, newscasts and special programming

In summer 2012, Giammarco returned to WSAR, this time as General Manager and Program Director, the first PD since Rodrigues, who had moved on to be a union organizer with the SEIU in Boston. Giammarco left in October 2012. Long-time on-air host and newspaper journalist, Ric Oliveira, left his post at Gatehouse Media where he was Publisher of Ojornal and became General Manager on April 1, 2013. The station added a Braga Bridge Cam in August 2013 and studio cameras to the webpage. WSAR also began using Facebook in 2013, using Facebook Live in 2016 as a means towards enhancing coverage of Fall River City Council and School Committee Sessions.

On January 28, 2015, WSAR was granted a U.S. Federal Communications Commission construction permit to increase day power to 25,000 watts by adding a third tower one-half the height of the two existing towers.

Jennifer Lorenzo assumed News Director and Production Director duties after Barry Richard was let go in 2016; Lorenzo arrived from WHBC in Canton, Ohio in 2013. Lorenzo exited in March 2016 for a communications post at the Bristol County Chamber of Commerce.

FM translator
WSAR is rebroadcast on the FM band by translator station W240EB. W240EB was first licensed February 5, 2020.

Notable alumni
Doug Brown, former sports anchor now at ESPN Radio
Leslie Marshall: former intern, nationally syndicated talk-show host
Mark Williams: former overnight air personality, Sacramento-based talk show host and author

References

External links
WSAR Website

W240EB on Radio-Locator
 (covering 1923-1981)

Fall River, Massachusetts
Mass media in Bristol County, Massachusetts
SAR
Radio stations established in 1923
News and talk radio stations in the United States
1923 establishments in Massachusetts

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


For many people Thanksgiving is spent with family members watching the Macy's parade and preparing for the Black Friday sales. For my family and me, Thanksgiving marks one very important time of the year in Oklahoma, deer rifle season. Not only do we enjoy each other's company around the dinner table but we spent those brisk mornings with each other in the deer blind. This year I had the opportunity to hunt with cousin Triston. Triston is a highly active teenager who is extremely passionate about his outdoor activities.
We awoke early on the morning after Thanksgiving Day to a temperature of about 23 degrees. I had read the weather forecast before leaving California but did not realize how cold it would be. To say the least, I was unprepared. Luckily enough Triston and I are the same size so he loaned me some clothing and gear. All suited up and only as warm as one can be in 23 degree weather, we drove towards the land where we would be hunting.
Triston told me a little about the location. The land belonged to a friend of my uncle who allowed them to hunt a 150 acre section. The land was thickly clad with oak trees and was surrounded by sprawling fields, a perfect place for deer. Triston, his brother Colton, and my Uncle Dale have been suitably managing this section of land for a couple of years and it has begun to show in the overall quality of deer.
As we drove, Triston went on to tell me that the rut was now in full swing and the bucks were actively chasing the does well into the late hours of the morning. The cold weather would help keep the deer from bedding down. The night before, we had spent about an hour going over trail camera pictures. Their deer certainly were looking good.
I am not much of a trophy hunter and usually prefer to take does for the quality of meat but this hunt would be different. On this land they do not shoot does during the peak of the rut because the does are what attract the bucks. Does are usually taken at the end of the season when the excitement of the rut fades and putting meat in the freezer becomes a priority.
As we browsed the trail cam pictures, I noticed one large irregular buck which caught my eye. The inner competitor inside me took over. I wanted this large buck and as a result I mentally labeled him as my own even though I knew the chances of seeing this deer would be slim. Older deer like this one are usually smarter than to feed in daylight. They tend to stick to a more elusive pattern of nocturnal movement.
We arrived to the gate, realizing that Triston had left the gate key at home. Now we would embark and a 1 mile hike to the box blind in the pitch black and freezing cold. As we walked the excitement became overwhelming and made the hike elapse quickly as my thoughts wandered to my previous hunt. I had spent a week in late October hunting Southern Mule Deer in California. The success rate in San Diego County was only 10% and I ended the California trip empty handed, only seeing two does and a yearling. This was a blow to my morale because I hadn't harvested a deer in almost eight years due to college. I knew that my chances were much better in Oklahoma where the statewide deer population is almost double that of the population in California. I was genuinely energized for this hunt.
We arrived to the hunting blind which stood about 15 feet in the air and hovered above us in the darkness like an empty skyscraper. I grabbed the unpleasantly cold rails of the ladder and pulled myself up and into the box. I seated myself in the padded folding chair where I would perch for the next few hours. It was still pitch black outside and I could only see the outlines of various trees and shrubs. I would later learn that the small area we were hunting wasn't much bigger that a baseball field. It had four game trails that intersected about 30 yards from the blind near the base of the deer feeder.
We would wait in the darkness for about an hour until there was enough light to shoot. In that duration we would spot some movement on one of the trails toward the feeder. A doe, whose shadow was only visible through binoculars, fed for about ten minutes before disappearing back into the gloom. This further mustered my anticipation of taking a buck.
The sun began to rise as I looked around to memorize the landscape. Triston pointed out the locations of each game trail. I scanned each trail eagerly in expectation. I wanted to see the large irregular buck saunter down the trail towards the blind. The feeder activated at 6:45am. The following hours would be our best chance at seeing deer.
Within minutes of the feeder activating, two does appeared out of the oaks and began feeding on the dried corn. We watched the two feed quietly in front of us. I caught movement out of the corner of my eye as a strong bodied four by four buck strolled from the trail to our right. He was locked in on the scent of the does. His neck was straight out like a bird dog and his upright white tail was waving like a flag in the breeze.
He approached the feeder and began chasing the larger of the two does. He chased her away from the feeder and into a smaller clearing. They then moved into the wood line. It happened so quickly that Triston and I didn't discuss taking the shot on the buck. We returned to watching the remaining doe while scanning the trails. My adrenaline was definitely pumping at the sight of the large buck. He wasn't the irregular that I wanted but he would certainly put out enough meat.
We waited for another twenty minutes until the last doe walked back into the woods. The same buck reemerged within seconds of the doe disappearing. Triston elbowed me, "He is back. Do you want him?" I nodded my head and he handed me the rifle. I carefully positioned the rifle against my shoulder. I looked through the scope. The buck was traveling directly towards me and didn't offer a good shot. We waited. He headed towards the feeder and then turned broadside. He looked as though he picked up the scent of the other doe and began to run. I followed him with my cross hairs. Triston grunted and the buck froze. I recognized the signal and squeezed the trigger.
The bullet struck the buck directly in the "sweet spot" at the rear of his shoulder blade about a third of the way up his body. He jumped into the air and began running towards the wood line. He continued until he disappeared in the oaks. I looked at Triston who was grinning from ear to ear. He was just as excited as I was. I had broken my dry spell with a beautiful deer.
We waited an hour before we climbed down to search for the buck. We didn't see him fall and all I could image was that he had run deep enough into the woods that it would be almost impossible to find him. I pictured us walking up to a pack of wild coyotes or the rumored mountain lion to be feasting on the buck. We found him intact just inside the oaks. He had traveled about fifty yards from where I shot him, just far enough to be out of view. I squatted near the downed animal and picked the head up by the antlers. I inspected the tines. Bark could still be found in groves of the antlers. I looked over the body. He appeared to weigh about 165lbs. I examined the wound which was a straight shot through the shoulder and lungs. I would later learn that I also hit the heart, making for a perfect shot.
I stepped back and stared at the animal that was in an almost sleep-like pose. A wave of appreciation overtook me. I could only have feelings of thanks for the sacrifice that this deer unknowingly made. We sat and stared at the deer and I said a prayer of thanks under my breath, promising that the deer's death was not in vain. I thanked it for the meat it would provide my family.
We walked back toward the blind and decided to stay for another hour so that Triston may have a shot at the buck that he was chasing. We climbed back up into the blind and sat in excited silence awaiting the next crossing of deer. Triston used the doe bleat and the rattle bag in an attempt to attract his buck. It is always a weird feeling using game calls. I am nervous about their proficiency. You always wonder if the animal is just within hearing distance telling itself, "That doesn't sound real. I am NOT going over there." I always have a picture in my head of two deer elbowing each other, snickering at my call.
We didn't have to wait long until the next group of deer showed itself. Another doe wandered to the feeder and began eating corn. She was shortly followed by another four by four buck. This particular buck was smaller than the one I had just taken. After watching the buck for a few minutes, Triston decided to wait and not take the smaller buck.
Those two deer only hung around for about ten minutes before leaving. We waited in the blind for another hour before calling it quits. Now the task at hand was to carry/drag the deer out of the bottom and to the truck. We unsuccessfully attempted to fashion several contraptions to carry the buck and ended up just calling for the key.
I reflected on the morning as we walked up the trail to the truck. Overall, I can say it was a successful hunt. There were two goals with this trip. One, to harvest a large enough deer to provide my family and me with enough meat to help last us until the 2013 deer season. That was a success. The second goal was to film our hunt in order to create my first hunting video. We successfully filmed the hunt with the exception of the actual shot. We got too excited when the buck returned and forgot to turn on the camera.
Oklahoma can be a very good place to hunt whitetail.


text:
Lepanina är en udde i Estland.   Den ligger i landskapet Pärnumaa, i den sydvästra delen av landet,  km söder om huvudstaden Tallinn.

Terrängen inåt land är platt. Havet är nära Lepanina åt nordväst. Den högsta punkten i närheten är  meter över havet,  km söder om Lepanina. Runt Lepanina är det glesbefolkat, med  invånare per kvadratkilometer. Närmaste större samhälle är Häädemeeste,  km norr om Lepanina.

Inlandsklimat råder i trakten. Årsmedeltemperaturen i trakten är  °C. Den varmaste månaden är juli, då medeltemperaturen är  °C, och den kallaste är januari, med  °C.

Referenser

Halvöar i Pärnumaa


Tucked away on the Pierce College Fort Steilacoom campus is the surprisingly large Dental Hygiene Clinic, with spacious treatment areas, classrooms and high-tech diagnostic areas. Besides functioning as a real-world training ground for tomorrow's dental hygienists, the clinic also provides affordable dental care for community members.
"We serve a range of people including Pierce College students, veterans, retirees, immigrants and low-income individuals," says Monica Hospenthal, RDH, BS, M.Ed., Director of the Bachelor in Applied Science Dental Hygiene (BASDH) program.
Fees are 80% to 95% less than what is typically charged in private dental offices. Fees for some services are further reduced for currently enrolled Pierce College students and active-duty military, veterans and their dependents.
Patients are often referred by dental practices or community organizations.
Junior and senior level students provide services under the supervision of faculty who are licensed dental hygienists and dentists, 21 in all. Dental hygienists in Washington State also administer local anesthesia and perform the restorative procedures of placing and finishing fillings.
There are only 10 dental hygiene programs in Washington State. Pierce College's program is one of the state's leading and longest-standing dental hygiene programs, accredited since 1973. It is the only program serving the South Sound area (Pierce, Kitsap and Thurston Counties). Admission is highly competitive, with 20 students accepted each year.
In 2017, the program transitioned from a two-year associate's degree program to a four-year Bachelor of Applied Science in Dental Hygiene (BASDH) program. Pierce College now also offers a Bridge BASDH program for Washington state associate dental hygienists wanting to complete their bachelor's degree.
To help, the college offers unique self-care programs for dental hygiene students. Junior level students work with Kinesiology Department students to create personalized exercise programs to offset the physical demands of their work. In another partnership, University of Puget Sound occupational therapy students conduct individual workplace ergonomic analyses for Pierce students, benefiting students from both disciplines and institutions.
The graduation rate at Pierce is 80-90 percent, according to Hospenthal, with 100 percent of graduates passing the state licensure boards. Most dental hygienists go on to work in private dental practices or corporate dental practices, a growing model in dentistry.
The Dental Hygiene Clinic's hours of operation are aligned with the academic schedule. The clinic is open all year on Monday afternoons, all day Tuesdays and Thursday mornings. In winter and spring, hours of operation include all day Wednesdays and Friday mornings. Appointments are required. For more information, visit www.pierce.ctc.edu/dental-clinic or call 253-964-6694.


text:
Q: When I debug my project by Android studio, my phone's screen will be white before running for a long time This is the log of console:
03/23 14:46:58: Launching app
$ adb install-multiple -r -p com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk /Users/bsn/project/YJKHealthForAndroid的副本 2/app/build/intermediates/split-apk/channel_nj_xszk/debug/slices/slice_7.apk /Users/bsn/project/YJKHealthForAndroid的副本 2/app/build/outputs/apk/app-channel_nj_xszk-debug_v1.16.0_c170321.apk
Split APKs installed
$ adb shell am startservice com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk/com.android.tools.fd.runtime.InstantRunService
$ adb shell am start -n "com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk/com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk.ui.activity.IntroActivityNew" -a android.intent.action.MAIN -c android.intent.category.LAUNCHER -D
Connecting to com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk
Now Launching Native Debug Session
Starting LLDB server: /data/data/com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk/lldb/bin/start_lldb_server.sh /data/data/com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk/lldb unix-abstract /data/data/com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk/lldb/tmp platform-1490251628644.sock "lldb process:gdb-remote packets"
$ adb shell cat /data/local/tmp/lldb-server | run-as com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk sh -c 'cat > /data/data/com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk/lldb/bin/lldb-server && chmod 700 /data/data/com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk/lldb/bin/lldb-server'
$ adb shell cat /data/local/tmp/start_lldb_server.sh | run-as com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk sh -c 'cat > /data/data/com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk/lldb/bin/start_lldb_server.sh && chmod 700 /data/data/com.romens.yjk.health.njxszk/lldb/bin/start_lldb_server.sh'
Debugger attached to process 11874

I found when I debug,"app-java" appear and many .so files will be loaded.
And I change another project and debug it, this problem will not happen.
Thanks for your help.

A: Check that is your instant run is enable or not just go to :
File->setting->Build,Execution,Deployment -> instant run - > disable it.
Re-build and run your project it will fix .THanks:)

A: I used this way solved my problem

Then apply.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Exclusive: Katherine Heigl Set to Walk Down the Aisle in He's the One
By Dustin Rowles | Industry | February 13, 2010 |
Just days after signing on to replace Reese Witherspoon in One for the Money, based on the Janet Evanovich book about a lingerie buyer turned bounty hunter (seriously), Heigl is also in negotiations now to star in Is He the One? for Fox 2000 pictures.
And if you thought an unemployed lingerie buyer turned bounty hunter was dumb, get a load of the premise for this turd: It's about a woman, walking down the aisle of her wedding, who spots faces in the crowd which trigger flashbacks about three different men. The question is: Which one is waiting for her at the end of the aisle?
Is it OK to hope that whichever man it is, he's waiting at the end of the aisle with a sawed-off shotgun?
So, basically a dumber version of Mamma Mia crossed with Definitely, Maybe, right? The script comes from newcomer Michelle Morgan, who — it turns out — also scripted the remake for the in-development Girls Just Want to Have Fun, which currently has Miley Cyrus attached in the Sarah Jessica Parker role.
The universe is aligned against us, folks.
(Source: The Hollywood Cog)
← Tim Tebow Attached to "Five Hour Drive Home" | Should I Stay or Should I Go? →
Meghan and Harry Are Now Free of the Royal Family and Its Racist Nonsense


NFI Group supports multiple United Way agencies that are located in or nearby communities where the company operates its 32 locations across Canada and the U.S.
Edmonton's replacement of aging fleet vehicles with more efficient, air-conditioned models supports an ETS goal of transforming the transit experience.
The 40,000 square foot facility will start by manufacturing certain components for up to 10 New Flyer Xcelsior® buses per week, which will then be assembled at New Flyer transit bus production facilities in St Cloud, Minn.
The company also announced the combination of the New Flyer and MCI aftermarket parts businesses under Dewsnup.
In July 2016, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie had issued Executive Order No. 210 directing the immediate and orderly shutdown of all ongoing work funded under the TTFA.
The company's initial investment in New Flyer occurred in early 2013 and it remains the company's largest shareholder.
Gov. Chris Christie issued Executive Order No. 210 declaring a State of Emergency and directing the Commissioner of the Department of Transportation and the Executive Director of the NJT to plan an immediate and orderly shutdown of all ongoing work that is funded by the Transportation Trust Fund Account.


Why pay more if you can get the same amenities at cheaper prices? Stay in affordable accommodation in Pisgah for an outstanding travel experience. These budget hotels stick on to your planned costs and you will come back home not fretting over the expenses. These pocket friendly hotels suit your budget offering you all the basic amenities you ask for. Plunge into a list of hotels with us that suit both your budget and your travel dream. Budget hotels like Hampton Inn & Suites Scottsboro and Comfort Inn & Suites Scottsboro will suit both your pockets and your comfort levels in Pisgah. Book with us to dream a budget friendly holiday for you.


When Victor returns from Argentina to visit his dying father Max, concerns about his mental health also arise. Max is convinced he's in danger, trapped 'in a city with no limits', and thus incapable of saving the mysterious 'Rancel'. Persuaded to help him escape and find Rancel, Victor embarks on a journey into the past his mother would rather he hadn't taken. If the attractive cast and soaring strings sometimes make it feel like a telenovella. It's good-looking and well-paced film, and Fernán-Gómez's Max makes for a suitably paranoid but eminently sympathetic character.


text:
Kohat Cement Limited (KOHC)
Kohat Cement, Pakistan Cement News
Kohat Cement (PSX: KOHC) is by far one of the strongest cement players in the industry and its consistent growth, strong demand in the market and good management has given the company a leg up.
It was incorporated in 1980 as State Cement Company of Pakistan with a capacity of about 30,000 tons per annum. In 1992, the government privatized it along with several other cement companies. Kohat was bought by private investors and only two years later, it went public. In 2014, it became a subsidiary of ANS Capital.
The holding company owns over 55 percent of the company's shares and very changes are seen in the rest of the shareholding pattern since the company was acquired. The public holds about 12 percent of the shares while the rest of the shares are spread across modrabas, mutual funds, banks, DFIs, insurance companies etc. as at June 2019.
Kohat has been expanded capacities over the years much like the rest of the industry that has seen several expansion cycles over the years. Its plan has a standby power plant of 22.4 MW capacity that meets some of its electricity needs. Its current capacity is around 2.8 million tons of grey cement and 150,000 tons of white cement which gives it a solid 5-6 percent share in the market in terms of capacity. Kohat has a capacity of 2.7 million tons of grey and 150,000 tons of white cement capacity. The company has installed a grey cement production Line 4 recently with a production capacity of 7,800 tons per day, which is expected to commence its commercial operations in 2QFY20.
Operational and financial performance
Kohat is operating in the north of the country which has its own set of dynamics in the industry. The zone contributes to the majority of the country dispatches, it exports cross-border mostly and not overseas due to higher costs associated to that, and there is more competition as there are more companies compete for the market share. It only stands to reason that Kohat's prudence management of finances and operations allows it to operate at relatively higher margins than some of its peers. This is especially true since Kohat is not one of the big players in the industry.
Its capacity utilization has grown consistently—going from 46 percent in FY10 to 77 percent by FY15. In the past two years, the company has predominantly supplied to non-public construction projects as per its annual report. During times of peak domestic demand, exports' share came down. At their peak in FY11, the company exported 35 percent of all its dispatches which came down to 6 percent during FY17. There are two reasons for this. One is strong demand since FY16 in the domestic markets (until FY19) and the second reason is that all of Kohat's exports go to Afghanistan. For the past few years, market access into Afghanistan has become smaller as the country is importing Iranian cement. This has reduced Pakistan's share into the Afghan cement market considerably.
Kohat is one of the few plants in Pakistan that manufacture white cement which makes its products quite diversified, though the capacity for white line is pretty small. With improved capacity utilization, Kohat has maintained its revenue growth throughout with a strong handle over its costs. In fact, it has proved its mantle by boasting 46 percent margins during FY16 which is incomparable to its peers in the same region. That year was a golden time for the cement industry when government spending on infrastructure was plentiful and market confidence was high. Kohat shone.
The company's retention prices have also witnessed strong growth, also peaking during FY16 when all fundamentals were on a strong upward trajectory. The industry was in fact trailing maximum capacity utilization which led cement players to announce further expansions. Kohat installed a waste heat recovery plant with a capacity of 15MW in April-16 that contributed to a cost cuts.
On the costs side, grid electricity prices, imported furnace oil, coal and gas all are major contributors which form the bulk of cost of production. Movement in oil prices, local fuel prices and imported coal prices all impact costs in addition to rupee-dollar parity. During FY16, costs were low as rupee was strong against dollar, and coal prices were also not rising. This led to cost per ton falling in FY16 to the levels of FY11. However, the next two years, the company, much like other cement manufacturers would suffer at the hands of high costs. Domestic demand started to shrink, price competition grew as expansions came through, exports markets began to fold down (particularly cross-border) and rupee started to depreciate. While Kohat's top-line grew, costs grew more which led margins to drop to 43 percent (FY17), 32 percent (FY18) and ultimately down to 27 percent in FY19. Though to its credit, Kohat has still performed better than other cement firms in the boat.
Opportunities and outlook
The year FY19 has been tough for multiple reasons. Domestic demand slowed down as economy went into austerity drive that led to reduced government expenditure and overall shrinking market confidence that pulled out private investments from construction and other sectors. Meanwhile, though coal prices averaged lower than FY18, the rupee devaluated led costs to increase. Furthermore, grid electricity prices in addition to packing material prices also affected the company's profitability which came down by 17 percent, despite a 16 percent growth in the top-line.
The company's revenue per ton improved which is incredible given price competition in certain markets. Its exports share in total dispatches remained at 5 percent, which may have been dismal, but the company managed to keep its domestic demand going.
During the year, Kohat also shielded the drop in profits by demonstrably keeping all indirect expenditures at the same level as last year (5% of revenues), while finance costs actually reduced from 1 percent of revenue to a negligible number. Its debt to equity also improved during the year.
Its strong control over its costs and expenditure, and savvy financial management allowed the company to still stay above the fray. Over the next fiscal year, the company will have added a new plant which might shrink capacity utilization since the domestic market is not expected to change too much over the next couple of months. No new demand avenues are visible, as the economy struggles out of its current crises. If private sector investments start coming back into real estate development and housing, demand could improve but price competition may grow further as companies across the board have added capacities. One silver lining is the Naya Pakistan Housing Plan. If the projects kick off soon, and construction begins (and it is expected to begin in the northern region of the country i.e. Punjab and up), it may lead to more contracts and improvement in the top-line. Coal prices are falling in the international market which bodes well for importers, including cement companies. Kohat must manage its inventories well to incur the gains from cheaper coal.


ABC's D.C. fixer drama Scandal has built big ratings in three seasons with a potent mix of often ridiculous plot twists and creator Shonda Rhimes' savvy use of social media, which has bound fans closely to the show and its stars. That combo has paid off: Ahead of tonight's season finale, which is certain to feature another signature shocker, Scandal has added 3 million viewers (for 11.5 million total). It's up even more in the key adults 18-49 demo, +43% compared with last season, according to Nielsen. That demographic also represents most of the heaviest social-media users and is fervently sought by marketers.


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The Red Team Analysis Society
Strategic Foresight & Warning ・ Risk Management
My Account & Membership
Book a Meeting with Dr Lavoix
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Custom-designed Training
Online Course: Geopolitical Risks and Crisis Anticipation – Analytical Model
Online Course – Scenario-building for Geopolitical Risk and Crisis Anticipation
Online Course – Mitigating Biases
Geopolitical Uncertainty Exposure Diagnostic
Expertise in Scenarios
Monitoring and Warning
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Commissioned Reports and Studies
Some Public References and Clients
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Try us with Open Access Articles
Definitions and process
Information, data and sources
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Real World Examples of Scenarios
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and Intelligence Products and Documents
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Public References and Clients
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Blogroll and Gratitude Hyperlinks
Dr Helene Lavoix
Dr Helene Lavoix is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society and its founder. She holds a PhD in Political Science and a MSc in International Politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in Finance (Grande Ecole, France – valedictorian).
She teaches global risk analysis / strategic foresight and warning in universities, at Master level (e.g. 2015-2021 for the Master in International Security at SciencesPo-PSIA in Paris, after having taught in 2010 then in 2011 as Visiting Senior Fellow at the RSIS, NTU in Singapore). She also trains professionals either through custom-made training courses for various organisations – most recently, for example, in the framework of the « Projet de Soutien à la lutte contre le terrorisme en Tunisie II » through CIVIPOL – or in the framework of executive courses (e.g. Vesalius College in Brussels 2013-2021, Geneva Center for Security Policy, Royal Military Academy of Belgium).
She speaks at workshops and public conferences and publishes on anticipatory matters, from methodology to specific issues (e.g. methodology of strategic foresight, scenarios, indicators, timeliness, the COVID-19 pandemic, artificial intelligence, governance and international security, quantum information science governance and international security, fragile states, the Islamic State, the Syrian conflict, social unrest and mobilization, war, genocide, energy security, extreme envrionements, etc.).
Prior to that, as an independent researcher, she has advised institutional actors and researched commissioned reports. She served as Senior Scientific Advisor to the Global Futures Forum (a multinational partnership of intelligence and security organizations at unclassified level), after having been the coordinator of the GFF SF&W Community of Interest 2008-2011 and lead of the corresponding online community 2007-2008. She also worked as contractor for the U.S. Department of Energy.
Previously, she served as an analyst in International Relations (Eastern Asia and Globalisation) for the European Commission, created and headed in Phnom-Penh the Cambodian branch of a NGO in the field of Development and worked in finance, as treasurer.
Some Speaking Engagements
What will be the key technologies of the future? for ISG – Groupe Enedis, France, 6 January 2020.
Tailor-made presentation, researched and designed specially for the Judicial Pole of the French Gendarmerie Nationale on Artificial Intelligence, the Future and Combating Crime", 7 February 2019, France
SciencePo- PSIA: "Managing a Nuclear Disaster", 5 Dec 2018: Commentary.
International Conference on Quantum Computing (ICoCQ), France, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, 26 to 30 November 2018: "The Quantum Battlefield and the Future", Concluding keynote.
RESO-COM, Digital Security et Identité, Mars 2018 – Keynote: "L'IA et la géopolitique".
3rd ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) Seminar on Preventive Diplomacy, Mediation and Early Warning Systems, co-chaired by the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, the European Union and the United States, Yangon, 19-21 June 2017: "Early Warning Systems"
Swiss Confederation/OECD – Fourth Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management "Anticipating crises and their potential pathways", Geneva, Switzerland – 28-29 May, 2015 – Keynote speaker "From weak signals to crisis scenarios"
International Relations Studies Association – TUIC– Turkey-Balkan Economy Summit, Istanbul, Turkey, 11 – 12 April 2015 : "Enlarging the Shadow of the Future" – Improving Cooperation between Turkey and the Balkans and Sustainable Development
Vesalius College – Brussels – Global Risk Analysis & Crisis Management Executive Course – Senior expert round-table, 25 October 2013: "Analysing Risk, Preparing for Uncertainty"
IFRI – AXA fund for research: Workshop "Global political risks" 14 October 2013, Paris: "Introduction to Early Warning systems: process and challenge".
Einiras and SciencesPo Paris, "How to face change? Understanding the Past to Foresee the Future – Implications for information retrieval and sharing", 21st Annual Einiras Conference, Changing Information Landscape in a Difficult Economic Situation, (on invitation only) -10-11 December 2012, Paris.
Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies (CASIS)/Association canadienne pour les études de renseignement et de sécurité (ACERS),– "Strategic Foresight & Warning: process & analytical methodology to explore new frontiers in Security and Intelligence" 2011 International Conference – Ottawa – November 2011.
Délégation aux Affaires Stratégiques, Ministère de la Défense "What makes foresight actionable?" – Paris – May 2011.
RSIS Public Lectures Series, "Strategic Foresight and Warning in a complex world," NTU – Singapore – February 2011
Civil Service College, Singapore, "Anticipating Strategic Surprises: An Introduction to Strategic Foresight and Warning," CGL (Centre for Governance and Leadership, Managing in Complexity Series – January 2011.
US Department of State, Homeland security, National Defense University, – "What makes foresight actionable?" Actionable foresight: Strengthening the Linkage between Longer-Term Analysis and National Security Decision-making – workshop II (on invitation only)– Washington DC – January 2011.
RSIS Public Lectures Series, "Why Strategic Foresight and Warning? The case of Energy Security" – NTU – Singapore – April 2010.
European Commission (RELEX), Talkshow "Enhancing Early Warning with Open Source Intelligence" Making the Difference – Conference –- Brussels – June 2009.
European Commission – Club of Budapest (on invitation only), "Strategic Energy Security, some elements on demand" – Budapest – June 2009.
European Commission – Club of Budapest (on invitation only) – "Early Warning: contemporary challenges" – Bucharest, February 2009.
Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies (CASIS)/Association canadienne pour les études de renseignement et de sécurité (ACERS), "Strategic Early Warning: Comparing Ways and Means" – 2007 International Conference – Evolution, Revolution or Same Old, Same Old? Reality Check on Security, Intelligence, Law Enforcement and Defence in 2007 – Calgary – September 2007.
Some publications
She is the author, among other publications notably for the Red (Team) Analysis Society, of "Ensuring a Closer Fit: Insights on making foresight relevant to policymaking", Development (2014) 56(4); "What makes foresight actionable: the cases of Singapore and Finland" (confidential commissioned report, US government, November 2010), "Enabling Security for the 21st Century: Intelligence & Strategic Foresight and Warning" RSIS Working Paper August 2010, "Constructing an Early Warning System," in From Early Warning to Early Action, European Commission, ed. DG Relex, 2008, "Detailed chronology of mass violence – Cambodia (1945 – 1979)," Online Encyclopaedia of mass violence, 2008 and the editor of Strategic Foresight and Warning: Navigating the Unknown, ed. RSIS-CENS, February 2011. More on academia.edu. Listed on the public list curated by LSEImpactBlog: @LSEImpactBlog/soc-sci-academic-tweeters.
Some foresight and warnings
1987: China as one of the most important future economic and political players (Master dissertation – MFin)
1993: Warning the French and European diplomatic community in Cambodia that to promote a double prime-ministership would entail most probably a coup (it occurred in 1997) and potentially related civil disorders, to the least a slow down of the recovery process.
1998: Identification of deep-sea resources as future geopolitical issue.
1999-2000: Internal lobbying within the analysis and policy planning units and related directorships of the European Commission DG1 & DG Trade to see defence and international relations considered in an inter-connected way alongside trade and the launch of the Euro.
Since 2008, among other:
Warning about connected highly likely political consequences worldwide of the financial and economic crisis.
Warning about the need to revisit demographic foresight and forecast to include multi-feedbacks.
Lobbying for developing global efforts in terms of strategic foresight and warning regarding the future of the modern state and associated system with at its core the crucial problem of public deficit. This is THE key that will condition the possibility for answering – at national, international, regional and global – any other pressure or threat.
Warning about the need to pay attention and invest in "space resources."
Since 2013, read The Red (Team) Analysis Society for public foresights…
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The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 20 January 2022
Anticipate ・ Innovate ・ Act・ Strategy for Political and Geopolitical Risks ・
"Dune" - Adaptation to Climate Change as Power Strategy
Will there be Climate Civil Wars?
Speech at Alterre Day: Unsustainable! Towards Solutions...
Sensor and Actuator for AI (1): Inserting Artificial Intelligence in Reality
Online Course: Geopolitical Risks and Crisis Anticipation - Analytical Model
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Meeting the Need to Foresee and Warn – Our Philosophy
Some References


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3B Garcia's 3 errors send Braves to 5-1 loss vs Rockies
ATLANTA - With a rookie pitcher on the mound, the Atlanta Braves weren't nearly good enough to overcome three errors by their rookie third baseman.
Adonis Garcia's defensive miscues led to four unearned runs for the Colorado Rockies, who snapped a four-game losing streak with a 5-1 victory over the Braves on Tuesday night.
Mike Foltynewicz (4-6) went five innings but could not pitch around Garcia's first two errors, which contributed to two runs in the first and two more in the fourth.
"He's a young pitcher," Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said. "He's not ready to cover up those mistakes."
Garcia made another error in the fifth, coming up one short of the Atlanta record for most errors in a game.
Darrell Evans made four in 1975 and Mark DeRosa matched the mark in 2004.
"It's just one of those tough nights," said Gonzalez, whose team lost for the 12th time in 15 games. "You're not a major leaguer until you have one of those nights."
Garcia had three errors in 29 games coming into the game.
Colorado's Chad Bettis (6-4) pitched five solid innings in his return from the disabled list. He allowed five hits, walked two and struck out four in his first big league start since July 18, having spent the past month dealing with right elbow inflammation.
DJ LeMahieu had three RBIs for Colorado.
Bettis also did good work at the plate, picking up his first big league hit and contributing in the fourth with a walk. Foltynewicz hit a batter in the inning, as well, making it tougher to escape.
The Rockies jumped ahead 2-0 in the first after Garcia misplayed a grounder that might have been an inning-ending double play. In the fourth, Nick Hundley's grounder skipped right past Garcia and LeMahieu came through with a two-out, two-run single.
Freddie Freeman squandered a couple of chances to get the Braves back in the game.
Freeman grounded out with runners at first and third to end the fifth, and struck out swinging with the bases loaded to end the seventh against Christian Friedrich. The left-hander came in after Tommy Kahnle walked four in the inning but got away without allowing a run. Pinch-hitter Pedro Ciriaco grounded into a double play in the midst of all the walks.
"We don't ever want to see Freeman coming to the plate in a situation like that," Rockies manager Walt Weiss said.
SPARSE CROWD
The announced attendance of 13,863 was the third-smallest crowd of the year at Turner Field and slightly less than the 13,920 for the series opener against the last-place Rockies.
The Braves are averaging 25,449 per game, putting them on pace for a season total of 2,061,369. That would be their smallest attendance since failing to draw 1 million fans in 1990, when the team finished last playing at old Atlanta Fulton-County Stadium.
Braves: SS Andrelton Simmons was back in the lineup after missing two games with a sore left knee. He went 2 for 3 with a walk, scoring Atlanta's lone run.
Rockies: LHP Yohan Flande (3-1) will make his 14th appearance of the season, his sixth as a starter. In his five previous starts, he is 2-0 with 3.90 ERA. Flande pitched in the Braves' farm system from 2010-13 and will be making his first start against his former team.
Braves: RHP Shelby Miller (5-10) is looking to break a winless streak that has stretched to more than three months. His last win came on May 17, when he threw a two-hit shutout at Miami. Miller has gone 0-9 over his last 17 starts, largely because of a lack of offensive support. The Braves have scored a total of 35 runs during that span -- an average of just over two per game.
Alleged Cartersville drug dealer accused of dismembering woman after overdose sentenced to prison


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Een kerstboom staat overal is een hoorspel van Reszö Szirmai. Jedermanns Weihnachtsbaum werd op 17 december 1961 door de Rundfunk der DDR uitgezonden. Willy Wielek-Berg vertaalde het en de VARA zond het uit op zaterdag 23 december 1967. De regisseur was S. de Vries jr. Het hoorspel duurde 38 minuten.

Rolbezetting

Pieter Lutz (de aangeklaagde Csobolya)
Nel Snel (zijn moeder)
Wiesje Bouwmeester (mevrouw von Hernady)
Dogi Rugani (de conciërge)
Wam Heskes (de rechter)
Rudi West (de verdediger)
Tonny Foletta (de officier van justitie)
Elisabeth Versluys (Emma, het meisje van Csobolya)
Willy Ruys (de winkelier)
Huib Orizand (de directeur van de kinderbescherming)

Inhoud

Csobolya moet zich voor het gerecht verantwoorden voor de diefstal van een dure ring. Tijdens de rechtszaak vertelt hij de onwaarschijnlijkste verhalen over wat hij heeft gedaan met de opbrengst van de verkoop van de ring. De gerecht gelooft echter geen van deze verhalen. Ten slotte krijgt het proces een onverwachte wending. De benadeelde vindt de zogenaamd gestolen ring terug. Csobolya heeft de diefstal louter op zich genomen om het kerstfeest in de gevangenis te kunnen doorbrengen…

Hoorspel van de VARA


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Service Change: NYC, Part 1 – The M20 (NOT!)
I went to New York over the weekend! And I took some trains! And buses! But not the M20. Let me explain: to get to Staten Island, the most obvious (and touristy) way is the Staten Island Ferry. And the most obvious way of getting to the ferry is by taking the 1 train down to South Ferry Station. But 1 trains weren't running there this weekend – thus, we needed to find an alternate route. Let me just say that Manhattan buses are not at all reliable.
It was a Sunday, when the M20 runs every 20 minutes. The one my father and I wanted was supposed to leave Lincoln Center (the northern terminus) at 9:19 and arrive South Ferry at 10:07 – plenty of time to transfer to the 10:30 ferry. Waiting at 57th Street, the bus was due to come a few minutes after it left its first stop. But "a few minutes after 9:19" came and went. By 9:30, I was starting to get a bit worried.
This "schedule" says the bus arrives at 9:23! Balderdash!
Luckily, the MTA has a nifty texting system, where you can text them the stop number and they'll tell you when the next bus arrives. It took a while to get a response, but it said "0.5 miles away." Well, after another 10 minutes of waiting, it was clear that the bus was in fact much further than half a mile away. Eventually we decided to just hoof it and take the subway instead.
Well, at least we avoided the Times Square traffic.
Ah, the classic New York Subway entrance.
An alternative subway route to South Ferry is the R, which has a direct transfer to the 1 at Whitehall Street. You may remember my fun experience with the NQR lines from the last time I was in New York – and this one was just as fun (i.e. not fun at all)! The 57th Street station was pretty generic – nothing special about it.
The mezzanine.
And the platform – express trains stop on the left.
After a few minutes of waiting, a Q train came into the station. This is the terminus of that line, and to prove the point, the train put "LAST STOP" on its destination board. It did, however, have one door open in every car, and lots of people got on. It sat there for a while without opening its doors, but then it left along the route – still with LAST STOP on the destination board! Are you serious?
So after waiting for about 25 minutes, an R finally came into the station (after two N's). The ride itself was fine, and we made it down to the South Ferry station – at 10:27. My father and I sprinted up the stairs, pushing past other people as we went. Bursting into the ferry terminal, we made it just as the boat was boarding. Phew.
I was so excited I didn't even care that the picture was blurry.