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#1124847 - 05/09/2012 00:48 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
CeeBee
Turn of the century drought worst in 800 years
A new scientific study indicates the turn-of-the-century drought in the North American West was the worst of the last millennium—with major impacts to the carbon cycle and hints of even drier times ahead.
The study, titled "Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America," indicates that the major drought that struck western North America from 2000 to 2004 severely reduced carbon uptake and stressed the region's water resources, with significant declines in river flows and crop yields. It was published on July 29 in Nature-Geoscience. NSIDC scientist Kevin Schaefer is a co-author on the study, along with Christopher Williams of Clark University. The study was led by Christopher Schwalm of Northern Arizona University (NAU).
Researchers found that the turn-of-the-century drought was the most severe region-wide event of its kind since the last mega drought 800 years ago. "The turn-of-the-century drought may be the wetter end of a new climatology that would make the 21st century climate like mega-droughts of the last millennium," said Schwalm.
Under normal climate conditions North America absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere due to plant growth, offsetting to anthropogenic carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. "Our study shows the turn-of-the-century drought reduced plant uptake by half in western North America," said Schaefer.
The current drought that has currently engulfed country is as intense in the western United States as the turn of the century drought, but also includes large portions of the Midwest and Eastern United States.
Climate models indicate drought conditions in the American West may be the new normal as the planet warms, expanding the region that is already chronically dry. "This will not only reduce carbon uptake," says Schaefer, "but will also would trigger a whole host of significant water resource challenges in a region already subject to frequent water shortages."
Record Temperatures and Wildfires in Eastern Russia
Forests and bog land in far eastern Russia have been burning since the beginning of June 2012. Contributing to the record fires have been the record temperatures of this past summer. This summer in Siberia has been one of hottest on record. The average temperature ranged around 93 degrees Fahrenheit and there doesn't seem to be any break in the weather coming anytime soon.
The fires in eastern Russia have affected the districts of Krasnoyarsk, Tuva, Irkutsk, Kurgan, and the Republic of Khakassia. Especially hard hit is the city of Tomsk. According to official figures, over 24,000 acres of land had been burnt in Tomsk by early August. The city has been covered by heavy smog for weeks and the airport has been out of operation since the beginning of July.
Of course wildfires are devastating to any area, but ecologically this is catastrophic for this region with many rare animals living in Siberia's unique ecosystem.
So to the fires burning in Russia will have worldwide effects as the torched peat bogs whose layers consist of dead plant materials will end up releasing large quantities of carbon dioxide into the air accelerating the greenhouse effect and making the air nearly unbreathable. Record numbers of fires in the summer of 2010 drew attention to this damaging situation.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/fires/main/world/20120828-russia.html
#1124873 - 05/09/2012 08:56 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: Arnost]
bd bucketingdown
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
"it might even prevent some overly trigger-happy and creative people from floating a conspiracy theory about how I just made up the fact of having contacted those blogs, similar to the way NASA faked the moon landing.)" This lewandowsky guy is obsessed with conspiricy theories and fake moon landings...perhaps he needs to come back down to earth with the real people!
Bill Illis
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
As one can see with the actual numbers, Carbon uptake is slowing.
[Exponential might be a better description].
http://s17.postimage.org/9j3ef7vlb/Net_Natural_Absorp_Human_CO2_Emis_1750.png
#1124935 - 05/09/2012 12:46 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: Bill Illis]
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/nat...9-1226465483229
Climate plan axed to patch budget: Abbott
OPPOSITION Leader Tony Abbott says the government's ditching of its plan to close down the dirtiest coal-fired power stations is an attempt to patch up the budget.
Energy Minister Martin Ferguson on Wednesday announced the government would not go ahead with its contract for closure process, to close down 2000 megawatts of the nation's most polluting power generation.
Mr Abbott told reporters in Bendigo it was always going to be a bad policy.
"But what we are seeing now is a government that is making it up as it goes," he said.
"I think what we have seen today from the government is a desperate attempt to patch up the budget ... to preserve the microscopic budget surplus."
He said Prime Minister Julia Gillard was showing a "general inability to manage the economy", especially the mining and energy sector.
"She just can't be trusted to manage the resources sector properly, particularly now that it's clear that the easy money days are over when it comes to the resources boom," Mr Abbott said.
Mr Abbott said his direct action plan to achieve carbon emission cuts would not involve shutting down power stations.
"We've always wanted to clean them up, not shut them down," he said.
"We've never wanted to shut down perfectly good businesses that are employing hundreds, in some cases thousands, of people."
785mm Jan
799mm Feb
130 March
2019 Total 1714mm
2018 Total 822mm
#1124939 - 05/09/2012 12:48 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: SBT]
Govt breached faith on power stns: Greens
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/nat...4#ixzz25YlXJpVt
AUSTRALIAN Greens leader Christine Milne says the federal government was never really committed to closing down the nation's dirtiest power stations.
Energy Minister Martin Ferguson on Wednesday announced Labor had abandoned plans to pay some coal-fired power generators to shut down, under its so-called contract for closure program.
Mr Ferguson said the government could not be satisfied that entering into such arrangements would give value for money.
Senator Milne told reporters in Hobart on Wednesday the decision was a "breach of faith".
"It's a breach of faith with the Australian community, a breach of faith with the multi-party climate committee and it really goes against the spirit of everything we have been trying to do," she said.
Labor had put the "fox in charge of the hen house" by getting the energy minister to lead the contract for closure process.
"Martin Ferguson, I don't believe, has tried very hard at all to achieve an outcome on contracts for closure and I don't believe that in terms of the coal companies that they have tried very hard either," Senator Milne said.
"They have been through the motions."
Senator Milne, who has led the Greens' talks with Labor on carbon pricing, said the government would face an electoral backlash.
"Labor can't be trusted on the environment - it's as simple as that," she said.
The Greens have called for the Productivity Commission to review compensation to coal-fired power generators, with a view to reducing it.
"The whole point of addressing global warming through an emissions trading scheme is to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuel and to renewable energy," Senator Milne said.
"Shutting down some of the dirtiest coal-fired power stations was at the heart of what we are trying to do.
"(Mr Ferguson) is clearly the minister for fossil fuels."
Senator Milne said there would also be now a "dislocation" in communities where the power stations were based.
As carbon pricing made the power stations less viable, rather than there being an "orderly transition" the communities were likely to get a shock as the plants faced commercial reality and suddenly closed.
"Instead you've got a minister who will be smiling all the way to the next coal pit," Senator Milne said.
CoastalStorm22
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Arrrah, posted this in ENSO thread by mistake. Wow, i think this might be my first ever post in here!
This should get the global coolist's and warmist's going!
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21....html?full=true
My WX Stations
Lane Cove PWS - Dee Why PWS
#1125019 - 05/09/2012 16:59 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Arnost
LOL CS! The tail gets burned quick smart...
"No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise" ...
And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Good article and it backs up what I've been saying here all along...
Here's a graph with the average of all five data sets (GISS, NCDC, HadCRU, UAH, and RSS) with the effects of ENSO, solar irradiance, and volcanic emissions removed ( (Foster and Rahmstorf 2011)
When removing these short-term effects, the warming trend has barely even slowed since 1998.
Loc: Port Stephens
Seems a little early to be talking of 2013 records. New Scientist from what i can see is not a great journal anyway.
#1125028 - 05/09/2012 17:45 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: Tom1234]
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
OK all you 'experts' out there, (both sides) including the media.
1) What is your single most important piece of evidence for AGW?
2) Why did climate warm between 1910 and 1940?
3) Why did climate cool from 1940-1975? If the cause is assumed to be aerosols, also please explain the separate trends observed in the northern and southern hemispheres and compare with climate models. This asymmetry has been a puzzle for some time.
4) Why is there a step increase (temperature "jump") in 1976-77 -- and again in 2001-2002? Such jumps are not in accord with the slow, steady increase calculated by climate models.
5) Why is there no pronounced warming trend since 2002?
6) And finally, why no warming for night-time marine air temperatures, troposphere, and proxies in the last two decades of the 20th century -- in conflict with reported land-surface temperatures? Could one admit the possibility that there might be something wrong with the land-surface data used by IPCC as "evidence" for AGW?
h/t to S. Fred Singer
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.
#1125031 - 05/09/2012 17:52 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: snafu]
http://www.science.org.au/reports/climatechange2010.pdf
i recommend you read this snafu. The Australian academy of science destroys pretty much all of the deniers arguments in an easy to read format.
But they are paid to lie and you wont read it anyway......
http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2010/4294972962.pdf
Royal society also has a publication.
Edited by Enrique (05/09/2012 17:55)
Loc: Brisbane
I'd like to know on what basis Rhamstorf assigned values for ENSO and Solar influences. Were talking about a guy who is not even up to date on current ENSO conditions judging by his "new Scientist" effort.
That anyone could rely on him to somehow accurately isolate the solar signal in the global temperature record and account for it is laughable.
I suspect the method used by Rahmstorf was start with the global temperature trend he wanted for AGW then allocate the remaining values for the other factors to achieve the result he wanted for AGW.
Then get it pal reviewed by your closest friends in the climate science community and there you have it.
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.
Originally Posted By: Enrique
Thanks for that link to a 2-year old study, (August, 2010).
According to your 'peer-reviewed paper', I can use a 10 year trend.
Why? Because it states:
Has there been a global cooling trend since 1998?
No. 1998 was an extremely warm year but the overall warming trend has continued over the past decade. The temperature trend in any given 10-year interval (such as 1 January 1990 to 31 December 1999, or 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2007) can be determined by a standard statistical process called linear regression. Since the 1970's, decadal global temperature trends have consistently demonstrated warming in almost all such 10-year intervals, although the magnitude of the trend varies because of natural climate variability (see Box 1). The decadel temperature trends over recent 10-year intervals remain postive.
OK. Now according to The Australian Academy of Science, I can use use a 10-year trend on current temperature records, ie; 2001 - present....yes? Forget HadCRUT4, as it hasn't been updated since Dec 2010.....Why?....Who knows!
Wood for Trees - 2001 - present - (slightly more than 10 years)
In the mean time, you still haven't answered the 6 questions asked:
Edited by snafu (05/09/2012 20:03)
Nothing I or anyone else posts will change your opinion so why even bother ? This thread continues to be a snooze fest
Bury your head in the sand, it doesn't affect me one bit. Im guessing 2013/2014 IPCC report will be equally as gloomy as the last and the dreams of Liberal supporters will be shattered. It will be a fun time to view these forums
Now not content to have had her backside ever so gently handed to her on national TV the Anna Rose thought she could change our minds is at it in again but now in print - pity is that it just sounds like so much of the same gruff she tried to pull on the show - I will be buying her book just to see how badly she does, but the following review isn't exactly a glowing recommendation and I'm not expecting too much.
A review of "Madlands: a journey to change the mind of a climate sceptic"
Anna Rose is the head of the Australian Youth Climate Coalition. She visited us with Nick Minchin to film the doco "I can change your mind" and has produced a book called Madlands about the filming of the doco. Another author, David Mason Jones, has written a review and comes at this from a fairly neutral background. Anna's approach, which is essentially an ad hom from beginning to end, punctuated with other fallacies, was evident when we met her, and sadly been amplified in her book. When they have no evidence, they attack the messenger. — Jo
Guest Post by David Mason-Jones
A review of 'Madlands: a journey to change the mind of a climate sceptic' by Anna Rose. Melbourne University Press. ISBN9780522861693
His site: www.journalist.com.au
Dare not peer into the forbidden room
…. and dare not speak to the unspeakable people. Dare not test the nasty taboos and dare not open the Pandora's box labelled 'the nature of the scientific process'. Above all, do not admit the integrity of the people on the other side of the debate in which you are involved. Instead, smear and ridicule your opponents remorselessly before looking at their arguments.
These seem to be the guiding principles of Anna Rose's somewhat less-than-intellectual approach in her book, 'Madlands: a journey to change the mind of a climate sceptic.' The approach Anna takes is to turn the sceptics we are about to meet into non-persons – or persons who are easy to hate, villains. The effect of doing this is to make it easy for the reader to dismiss their arguments with hardly a thought.
Anna carefully character assassinates all the sceptical people she is about to introduce. She then gives them a fairly cursory hearing, ignores their arguments, and responds with personal attack and ridicule, appealing to the twin arguments of authority and consensus all the way.
The adjectives Anna assigns to adherents of the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis are; eminent, highly respected, thorough, forward thinking, moderate and polite, intellectual, diplomatic, world-renowned, progressives and mainstream. Sceptics are described with derogatory words and terms like; attack dogs, more than a touch arrogant, fringe, wackiest, plays dirty, bizarre, contrarian, nutty, abrasive, notorious, bullying, dishonourable tactics, gang, cyber bullying, sexist, curious (in a derogatory context), petulant, bitter, web of denial, ideological warriors, generating hate towards climate scientists, and warped world vision. This sets the scene for the tone of her work.
"In the inquisitions the inquisitors had to climb up into every last village, high in the mountains of France and Spain, to track down every last heretic…"
After you are only part way through the book, the set-piece use of these descriptors starts to wear thin. If you have an honest desire to read Anna's point of view, it becomes harder and harder to do so objectively as you become aware that the writer is endlessly outlining her 'good-versus-evil' view of the debate.
Special vilification is reserved by Anna to demolish the character of Professor Richard Lindzen who she implies is just a nutty professor. In her terms, he is a 'used to be'. Anna tries to malign him as an old man with the evil habit of smoking, and makes out that she even struggled to breathe. I do not know Professor Lindzen, and I have never been to his house, but I understand that while he is a smoker, he doesn't smoke in the area where Anna was. [Editors note: Anna's attack is a measure of Lindzens influence. This is all so irrelevant to anything that matters except to note how far some people will go to vilify their opponents. It tells us all something about Anna, that when I asked Nick Minchin if Lindzen was a smoker, Minchin said he didn't know, and couldn't recall any clues from visiting his house. Nick Minchin is a non-smoker too, he'd notice. In an email, Lindzen remarked to me that Anna seemed to be perfectly comfortable while enjoying his hospitality and that the ABC tapes would show that. Message to skeptics: video everything. It means the activists have to stay closer to the truth -- Jo]. This shameless attempt to demonize Lindzen, based on his personal habits, has little to do with the question of whether or not he is raising valid scientific objections to the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis? Why can't the scientific issue be discussed without maligning his personal habits? Should we all, like Anna, feel free to dismantle the credibility of other people, with whom we disagree, based on their personal habits? How far should this license go? Would Anna approve if people on either side of the debate extended her technique to other personal aspects such as; gender, age, race, sexual orientation, body shape, disability, religious affiliation or any other irrelevant characteristic? What are the intellectual processes Anna is trying to set up here?
[Editors note: Richard Lindzen is one of the top meteorologists in the world, with over 200 publications to his name, as well as awards, medals, prizes and is a member of the NAS, AAAS, AGU, AMS. He is The Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and his work includes major contributions to our understanding of the Hadley Circulation, small scale gravity waves on the mesosphere, as well as atmospheric tides and oscillations in the tropical stratosphere. That he should face this kind of petty and personal attack is disgraceful. What kind of message does this send to younger, less secure scientists who doubt the IPCC dictat? There is more science, insight and good manners in one article of Richard Lindzen's than in Anna Rose's life's work. - Jo]
Some pages after that she moves on to again to demolish another character. Before we even meet Marc in the book she is already maligning him. Maybe I'm not very widely read but I have not before heard of Marc Morano. I have never visited his blog and, at the time of writing this, still haven't. So I had no preconceived ideas about him before I read what Anna had to say. After Anna's onslaught, however, the attitude I had to Marc was that he must be a pretty bad person. This was irrational, I know, especially given the fact that I was already suspicious of her technique of character demolition. But it shows that character assassination works! It works even with the sceptical reader. It seems to be human nature to be swayed – at least in the first instance – by the rumors and insinuations made by others about someone you don't even know.
Originally Posted By: Jo Nova
][Editors note: I do know Marc Morano, who runs the excellent Climate Depot blog. He is ever the gentleman, polite, staunchly patriotic (without being over-the-top), has a wide grin and a warm optimistic nature. He's a riot to be around, the life of the party, and genuinely considerate, always diplomatic, and not domineering in ways that smooth talking effusive people can sometimes be. In short, — I'd work with him any day, he's a delight to be around, and inspiring to watch in action. A hero in his relentless quest to get the true story told. -- Jo]
The article continues and can be found here - http://joannenova.com.au/2012/09/a-revie...tic/#more-23505
Foster and Rahmstorf 2011 (correcting for select temperature influences).
Foster's data sources included this other known temperature influence but they did not incorporate it into the results. I wonder why.
Edited by Bill Illis (05/09/2012 22:24)
Stephan Lewandowsky's slow motion Psychological Science train wreck
Posted on September 5, 2012by Anthony Watts
(1) http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/05/st...eck/#more-70456
I'm a bit of a latecomer to this affair, as Lucia and Jo Nova took an early lead on pointing out the many problems with the survey methodology (or lack thereof) with the paper:
Lewandowsky, S., Oberauer, K., & Gignac, C. E. (in press). NASA faked the moon landing – therefore (climate) science is a hoax: An anatomy of the motivated rejection of science. Psychological Science.
"Motivated" is the key word here, as it appears there were hidden motivations for this paper. It seems though, once you scratch the surface of Lewandowsky's paper, that it is nothing more than a journal sanctioned smear of climate skeptics based on not only faulty data, but data gathered with a built in bias.
Besides what we already know about the flawed sampling method, the lack of follow up with skeptic blogs to make sure they got communications inviting them to post the survey, and the early release of results before the survey was complete, the most troubling new revelation appears to be that some climate skeptic blogs got different questionaires than their counterpart AGW advocate blogs. If true (and it appears to be based on the survey numbering system) this negates the study on the basis of inconsistent sampling, and I think it is time to ask Psychological Science editor Robert V. Kail to investigate this paper, and if he finds what the skeptics have, start a retraction. I've sent him a courtesy note advising him of this issues with this paper.
Here's a summary of what has been going on the last couple of days.
Jo Nova has a great summary here, and writes about one Australian investigator who was invited to take the survey questions two years ago, kept screen shots of it, and did an analysis. She wrote:
Graham from OnlineOpinion was so struck by the study he's written a post titled: Fish rot from the head Part 1. LINK - Fish rot from the head
Read it to get familiar with the survey questions.
Next there's the who got what version of what survey problem, Jo notes this:
Leopard on the Bishop Hill thread has noted that Steve McIntyre is asking Lewandowsky why there are two or even three different forms of the survey? Why indeed?
Paul follows them up:
The Deltoid, Tamino, Mandia and Hot-Topic blogs were sent the survey number surveyID=HKMKNF_991e2415 on about August 29th. That survey is on the archive, and starts with 6 questions about free markets.
Bickmore and Few Things had the survey number surveyID=HKMKNG_ee191483 also about Aug 29, but this one doesn't seem to be on the archive.
Steve Mc was sent survey number surveyID=HKMKNI_9a13984 on Sept 6th. This survey is on the archive, and it starts with 5 completely different questions! About how happy you are with life.
LINK Survey version 1
This right here should be enough for a retraction from the Journal. If different surveys were sent to different bloggers, and no mention of it was made in the paper or justified in the methodology, then this amounts to purposely biased data from the beginning. UWA may also find grounds for academic misconduct if Lewandowsky purposefully sent different sets of questions based on the type of blog he was inviting.
And then we have the fact that Lewandowsky was discussing preliminary results at a seminar, while the surveys were still open and he had not heard back from the skeptic blogs yet, such as the follow up invitation to Steve McIntyre. Having an open discussion of the survey is highly irregular, because attendees/viewers are free to take the survey, possibly biasing the results.
And it seems they are still at it, here's a recent WUWT comment:
Daniel H says:
Anthony, there was recently another survey (longer, and with a 1-5 scale) put out by Lewandowsky's research assistant, Charles Hanich, on June 4, 2012. It seems that the link for this survey was only posted on two blogs: Watching the Deniers and Skeptical Science. Charles Hanich was also responsible for creating Lewandowsky's 2010 survey, as mentioned in the comments here.
Unfortunately, the link to the June 2012 survey is also unavailable. However, a skeptic called the "Manic Bean Counter" captured all the survey questions and dissected them on his/her blog, here.
LINK Survey version2
The following is Manic Bean Counter's breakdown of the types of questions asked in the survey:
1. Climate Change – 5 questions
2. Genetically Modified Foods – 5 questions
3. Vaccines – Benefits and harms – 5 questions
4. Position of the Conservative / Liberal perspective (US definitions) – 7 questions
5. Select neutral (check of the software, or check for spam?) – 1 questions
6. Free market system v social justice / environment / sustainability – 5 questions
7. Conspiracy theories (political) – 6 questions
8. Conspiracy theories (scientific) – 6 questions
9. Personal Spirituality & Religion – 8 questions
10. Evolution – views upon – 7 questions
11. Corporations – 13 questions
12. Personal emotional outlook – 6 questions
The striking thing is that we have John Cook's Skeptical Science blog listed as presenting both the original as well as the most recent survey. It as been discovered that Cook is a co-author with Levandowsky on a similar paper:
Lewandowsky, S., Ecker, U. K. H., Seifert, C., Schwarz, N. & Cook, J. (in press). Misinformation and its correction: Continued influence and successful debiasing. Psychological Science in the Public Interest.
pdf of survey
One wonders how much Cook contributed to the questions, based on his understanding of his readers likely responses. It is strange irony indeed that the paper discusses "debiasing", when so many potential biases in Lewandowsky's methods are clearly obvious to even the casual reader. Wikipedia even cites them for this paper in a section on "debunker"
Australian Professorial Fellow Stephan Lewandowsky[5] and John Cook, Climate Communication Fellow for the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland (and author at SkepticalScience.com)[6] both warn about "backfire effects" in their Debunking Handbook.[2] Backfire effects occur when science communicators accidentally reinforce false beliefs by trying to correct them. For instance, a speaker about global warming may end up reinforcing the crowd's beliefs that global warming is not happening.
Backfire indeed, this Lewandowsky "moon landing" paper is a full force backfire now.
Based on what I've seen so far, it is my opinion that Lewandowsky set out to create the survey data he wanted by manipulation of the survey system through multiple undocumented surveys, incomplete and non-representative sampling, biased survey questions, and essentially no quality control. There weren't even significant safeguards in place to prevent individuals from taking the survey multiple times, appearing as other identities. There are so many things wrong with this paper that I can't see it surviving intact.
I think what we have witenessed here is yet another example of noble cause corruption, where the end justifies the means in the minds of the players.
In reviewing Lewandowsky's writings (here at The Conversation) [/i] LINK The conversation over the past couple of years, it because painfully obvious that he sees climate skeptics as a scourge to be dealt with and that even crime can be justified:
Revealing to the public the active, vicious, and well-funded campaign of denial that seeks to delay action against climate change likely constitutes a classic public good.
It is a matter of personal moral judgment whether that public good justifies Gleick's sting operation to obtain those revelations.
I believe that Dr. Lewandowsky set out to show the world that through a faulty, perhaps even fraudulent, smear campaign disguised as peer reviewed science, that climate skeptics were, as Jo Nova puts it, "nutters". Worse, peer review failed to catch any of the problems now in the open thanks to the work of climate skeptics.
My best advice to Dr. Lewandowsky right now is: withdraw the paper. It has become a lighting rod for everything that is wrong with team climate science today, and multiple lines of investigation are now in progress including FOI requests and demands for academic misconduct reviews at your University of Western Australia.
I can't see any of it ending well for you given your reticence to offer supporting data or explanations.
Click the links above to go to the blogs referenced in the article.
Another 'shot myself in the mouth" attempt at discreditting sceptics. He is just as badly organised as the mob who post here under one name and I am looking forward to their take on this. My bet is that they won't/can't comment because anything they say will make the situation much worse.
I wonder when my first cheque from Big Oil will turn up?
__PG__
Grahame Readfearn writes about The conspiracy theories about a paper concerning conspiracy theories
Professor Stephan Lewandowsky, a cognitive psychologist at the University of Western Australia (UWA), is about to publish research which shows that a strong indicator of the rejection of climate science is a willingness to accept conspiracy theories.
[R]ather fittingly, no sooner had Lewandowsky's paper begun to make headlines than the world's loose, nimble and definitely-not-conspiring network of climate skeptic blogs began to construct their own conspiracies about Lewandowsky's research.
Lewandowsky's researchers also emailed five popular skeptic blogs, but none of those approached posted the link to the questionnaire.
Steve McIntyre, a long-time mining industry consultant and active climate sceptic, even encouraged blog readers to email the ethics department at Lewandowsky's university.
Once McIntyre had come down from the conclusion he had just jumped to, he later admitted that actually, he had been emailed by one of Lewandowsky's researchers after all but offered a "dog ate my homework" excuse.
Australian skeptic blogger Simon Turnill has sent a Freedom of Information request to UWA asking for Lewandowsky's emails.
Lewandowsky told DeSmogBlog:
"So now there's a conspiracy theory going around that I didn't contact them. It's a perfect, perfect illustration of conspiratorial thinking. It's illustrative of exactly the process I was analysing. People jump to conclusions on the basis of no evidence. I would love to be able to release those emails if given permission, because it means four more people will have egg on their faces. I'm anxiously waiting the permission to release this crucial information because it helps to identify people who engage in conspiratorial thinking rather than just searching their inboxes."
Lewandowsky revealed that two of the five skeptic blogs approached even replied to the email they were sent.
One stated "Thanks. I will take a look" and another asked "Can you tell me a bit more about the study and the research design?"
Perhaps an inbox search for these phrases might help some bloggers to move on from their latest conspiracy theory.
Or maybe, just maybe, the real story is that the New World Order hacked their email accounts or a CIA operative secretly dropped a memory-lapse drug into their fake moon juice?
Another example of truth being stranger than fiction.
Originally Posted By: Mike (SBT) Busby
You don't need peer reviewed science to see that Jo Nova is a nutter. It's plain for all the world to see...
..unless you think the Rothschilds rule the world, killed a couple of US Presidents, and control the global media and every national scientific institution on the planet.
Moderator: Lindsay Knowles
4 registered (Jimi, Homer, poona, 1 invisible), 47 Guests and 2 Spiders online.


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Redemption Rye, made with 95% rye, and WhistlePig, a Vermont whiskey that contains a variety of flavor notes.
Hudson, a silky smooth white whiskey.
Last Feather Rye by Journeyman Distillery, a rye and wheat mix matured in white oak-charred barrels.
Woodford Reserve, a bourbon with Caramel, cocoa and maple notes.
Hillrock, aged through a complex process called Solera aging.
What is your personal favorite whiskey included in the flights?
My favorite is definitely the Last Feather Rye. Journeyman Distillery chose its location in Three Oaks, Michigan because of the lack of water filtration there. This means that the water used to distill the whiskey is full of natural minerals that give it a unique taste. It's a truly small-batch whiskey that has a unique flavor.
Why is whiskey your favorite spirit?
It's my favorite because each one is different from the next. With other liquors like Vodka, they all taste so similar and are actually typically rated based on how little flavor or bite they have. With whiskey, flavor is key and there are so many different styles that you can try a different brand every time and you'll never get bored.
For those who appreciate whiskey cocktails more than drinking it straight, Finch has a Whiskey Sour and a Sazerac on the menu. The classic whiskey sour is made with Lexington Bourbon, lemon, lime, and sugar for a delicious flavor balance. The Sazerac consists of Bulleit Rye, absinthe, Peychaud's bitters, sugar, and an orange twist, and is the first cocktail invented in America.


text:
Q: Heroku App not displaying same positioning/css as localhost I am having an issue with my locally hosted site having correct CSS/positioning but after it is deployed to Heroku it seems to lose some CSS. I am running mostly MERN Stack. I suspect it is going to be a problem relating to my node_modules but I have them in my git ignore and am not very knowledgable in that area. The best example I have is my About Us page. I've never encountered this issue and have found only info about Rails projects having this issue. I have tried uninstalling/re-installing bootstrap and added the CDN to the index.js file. Any help would be much appreciated.
Deployed Site Screen Cap
Locally Hosted Screen Cap
Updated Deployed Site Screen Cap
Updated Locally Hosted Screen Cap
UPDATE:
Found this CSS library is very helpful and helped fix my wonky CSS in production.
https://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/css/reset/

A: It may be you cache problem.
it can be a problem because of VH (Viewport Height) property. and it will be change according to screen height.

*

*Viewport = the browser window size. If the viewport is 50cm wide, 1vw = 0.5cm.

i just saw your code and seems you are using static height for .about-wrapper.
i your case you should remove height property for .about-wrapper selector.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


OTROS : RADIO-ANTIGUA, La tienda con los mejores precios y calidad de la red.
SOCKET MAD 3210/2652 12 PINS NOS (NEW OLD STOCK) 1PC. CA150U6F111116 SIZE: FEMALE DIAMETER: 23MM MALE DIAMETER: 36MM It shows more of a product for a better description of the product, but a unit is sent, unless the title says otherwise.
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SOCKET MAD S810 10 PINS NOS (NEW OLD STOCK) 1PC. CA150U3F111116 SIZE: FEMALE DIAMETER: 20MM MALE DIAMETER: 37 MM It shows more of a product for a better description of the product, but a unit is sent, unless the title says otherwise.


text:
ZACC chairperson Loice Matanda-Moyo
ZACC Launches Anti-Corruption Whistleblower Mobile App
9th September 2020 Zimbabwe
THE Zimbabwe Anti-Corruption Commission (ZACC) Tuesday launched an anti-corruption whistleblower mobile application to make it easier for citizens to confidentially report suspected cases of high-level graft in the country.
Speaking at the virtual launch of the application, ZACC chairperson Loice Matanda-Moyo said she was confident the application will assist the public and the organisation in fighting increasing corruption related crimes in the country.
"In my opening remarks at the first press briefing in 2019, I noted the challenges that are bedevilling the commission and key among them was the lack of a whistleblower protection framework," she said.
"As much as we want the public to report cases of corruption, we as the commission have to ensure that we provide a platform that ensures the non-disclosure of the identity of whistle-blowers and security of the information given."
Matanda-Moyo said Zimbabwe was a signatory to the United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC), the African Union Convention on Preventing and Combating Corruption, and the SADC Protocol Against Corruption – which all speak towards a corrupt-free world.
"These conventions call for the protection of reporting persons and expect state parties to incorporate into their domestic legal system appropriate measures to provide protection against any unjustified treatment for any person who reports in good faith and on reasonable grounds to the competent authorities any facts concerning offences related to corruption and money laundering," Matanda-Moyo said,
"In order for the commission to meet its target, it is important that we provide a platform for whistleblowers to feel safe to report cases of corruption. I must hasten to say that the commission drafted a lay bill with the assistance of its partners which was given to the Attorney General on 17 June 2020. We implore the Attorney General and the Minister of Justice to treat this matter as a matter of urgency," she said.
"First, the whistleblower platform provides easy access to an instantaneous anonymous and straightforward reporting tool, empowering citizens to report safely, loudly and visibly when corrupt officials and public service providers abuse their positions of entrusted power.
"Second, the tip-off application helps break the silence around the daily occurrence of corruption and seamless interaction among participants or the whistleblowers.
"Third, the application can be a base for public expenditure tracking, where public funds can be protected from greed or ill-doing of individuals, and most importantly it provides an avenue for users to anonymously submit evidence to cases that ordinarily collapse due to a lack of evidence.
"It is also in times like today where the Covid-19 pandemic is ravaging communities that such an innovation assists the commission in executing on its mandate with minimum human physical contact. I, therefore, cannot overemphasise the immense significance of this platform and encourage the members of the public to use it."

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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La vía del 3-hidroxipropionato, el sistema de anillo bicíclico 3-hidroxipropionato o ciclo del 3-hidroxipropionato/malonil-CoA, es una ruta metabólica por la cual ciertos microorganismos, como las bacterias verdes del azufre y las del no azufre, fijan dióxido de carbono ().  Se piensa que es una de las rutas de fijación de carbono de tipo autótrofa evolutivamente más antiguas. Esto se infiere mediante el análisis filogenético del microorganismo Chloroflexus, que la sitúa en la rama más primitiva de los anoxifototrofos, dentro del dominio Bacteria.

En esta ruta el acetil-CoA incorpora dos moléculas de  en forma de bicarbonato, formando metilmalonil-CoA y consumiendo ATP y NADPH en el proceso; luego este metilmalonil-CoA, se rompe generándose glioxilato y acetil-CoA. El glioxilato servirá para sintetizar material celular y el acetil-CoA se regenera para el siguiente ciclo. El poder reductor empleado en esta ruta se obtiene únicamente de NADPH proveniente de la fotosíntesis. En una vía paralela, el propionil-CoA generado en el ciclo puede condensarse con glioxilato para formar piruvato.

Ocurrencia

La vía 3-hidroxipropionato solo se ha encontrado en la bacteria microaerófila del orden Chlorobi Chloroflexus aurantiacus. Aunque las bacterias estrechamente relacionadas (Chloroflexus aggregans y Roseiflexus spp.) poseen los genes necesarios para esta vía aún no se ha detectado en ellos el crecimiento autótrofo. Otra relacionada, Oscillochloris sp., sin embargo, explota el ciclo de Calvin y no el ciclo del 3-hidroxipropionato para fijación de CO 2.

Bioquímica

La vía 3-hidroxipropionato consta de dos ciclos interconectados. En el primer ciclo, se produce glioxilato condensando dos moléculas de bicarbonato. El glioxilato entra entonces en un segundo ciclo, donde se hace reaccionar para formar piruvato, durante la formación de piruvato en el segundo ciclo, se utiliza otra molécula de bicarbonato. Por lo que se puede considerar en conjunto que el ciclo combinado utiliza tres moléculas de bicarbonato para formar una molécula de piruvato.

Primer ciclo: formación de glioxilato

El ciclo comienza con una molécula de acetil-CoA, esta molécula se condensa con una molécula de bicarbonato con consumo de una molécula de ATP para formar una molécula de malonil-CoA, esta reacción está catalizada por la enzima acetil-CoA carboxilasa, y utiliza biotina como cofactor.

A continuación el malonil-CoA se reduce por efecto de la enzima malonil-CoA reductasa con consumo de NADPH; la reacción libera a la coenzima A y produce 3-hidroxipropionato que es el compuesto que le otorga el nombre al ciclo. A continuación, la propionil-CoA sintasa cataliza la formación de propionil-CoA utilizando el 3-hidroxipropionato y coenzima A como sustratos, además de NADPH como poder reductor y ATP como fuente de energía.

El segundo paso de asimilación de bicarbonato lo lleva a cabo la enzima propionil-CoA carboxilasa, la cual condensa el propionil-CoA con bicarbonato para formar metilmalonil-CoA con consumo de ATP. El metilmalonil-CoA es reordenado para formar succinil-CoA, y luego el succinil-CoA se reorganiza para formar malato, en esta reacción se utiliza FAD y se produce FADH2

Finalmente actúa una enzima trifuncional malonil-CoA / β-metilmalonil-CoA / citratomalonil-CoA liasa, que escinde al malonil-CoA formando glioxilato y acetil-CoA, cerrando así el ciclo.

El balance general para la formación de una molécula de glioxilato es:

2  + 3  + 3 ATP + FAD    glioxilato + 3  + 2 ADP + AMP +  + 2  +

Formación de piruvato

En el segundo ciclo, el glioxilato se convierte en piruvato. Aquí se condensa una molécula de glioxilato y una de propionil-CoA, para formar β-metilmalonil-CoA; esta reacción es catalizada por la misma enzima trifuncional malonil-CoA / β-metilmalonil-CoA / citratomalonil-CoA liasa que participa en el primer ciclo. A continuación el β-metilmalonil-CoA se deshidrata para formar mesaconil-C1-CoA, reacción catalizada por la mesaconil-C1-CoA deshidratasa. A continuación se isomeriza el mesaconil-C1-CoA para formar mesaconil-C4-CoA, esta transesterificación intramolecular es catalizada por una transferasa. El mesaconil-C4-CoA se hidrata después para formar (3S)-citratomalonil-CoA, reacción catalizada por una hidratasa. Finalmente este se escinde en acetil-CoA y piruvato, reacción también catalizada por la malonil-CoA / β-metilmalonil-CoA / citratomalonil-CoA liasa, cerrando el ciclo.

El piruvato puede ser metabolizado posteriormente para formar una triosa fosfato.

El balance para la formación de piruvato a partir de glioxilato es:

glioxilato +  + 3  + 2 ATP  piruvato + 3  + ADP + AMP +  +

El balance global para la formación de una molécula de piruvato es entonces:

glioxilato + 3  + 6  + 5 ATP + FAD  piruvato + 6  + 3 ADP + 2 AMP + 2  + 3  +

Importancia Biológica

La fijación de tres moléculas de bicarbonato para formar piruvato es un proceso que globalmente consume mucha energía. La formación de una molécula de gliceraldehído-3-fosfato requiere de 10 equivalentes de ATP (cuando se forma AMP se cuenta dos veces). Este proceso puede realizarse bajo condiciones aeróbicas o microaerofílicas, ya que ninguna de las enzimas implicadas son sensibles al oxígeno per se. El ciclo también puede incorporar compuestos intermedios asimilados del ambiente, (además de la fijación de bicarbonato), por ejemplo puede incorporar ácido acético, ácido propiónico, y ácidos dicarboxílicos C4. Compuestos de los que se sabe que son excretados como producto de la fermentación de algunas comounidades de microorganismos.

Una característica especial de este ciclo es que involucra enzimas bi y trifuncionales. la malonil-CoA reductasa cataliza dos pasos del ciclo, mientras que la malonil-CoA / β-metilmalonil-CoA / citratomalonil-CoA liasa cataliza tres reacciones. El ciclo completo se lleva a cabo en 19 reacciones, pero solo se encuentran involucradas 13 enzimas.

Se ha demostrado una forma de fijación similar en arqueas termoacidófilas de los géneros Metallosphaera, Acidianus y Sulfolobus; el ciclo del 3-hidroxipropionato / 4-hidroxibutirato.

El uso de bicarbonato en lugar de dióxido de carbono se puede explicar porque C. aurantiacus crece en aguas con un entorno ligeramente alcalino. Bajo estas condiciones, la concentración de bicarbonato es mayor que la de dióxido de carbono.

Historia

El ciclo del 3-hidroxipropionato que utilizan las bacterias verdes no del azufre (Chloroflexi), se propuso en el año 1986 para explicar el metabolismo microbiano de la bacteria fotosintética anoxigénica Chloroflexus aurantiacus. Ninguna de las enzimas que participan en el ciclo del 3-hidroxipropionato son especialmente sensibles al oxígeno.

Variantes del ciclo del 3-hidroxipropionato

Se ha encontrado una variante de la vía del 3-hidroxipropionato en la arquea aeróbica termoacidófila extrema Metallosphaera sedula. Esta vía se llama ciclo del 3-hidroxipropionato/4-hidroxibutirato. Otra variante más de la vía del 3-hidroxipropionato es el ciclo del dicarboxilato/4-hidroxibutirato, que se descubrió en arqueas anaeróbicas, y fue propuesto en 2008 para la arquea hipertermófila Ingnicoccus hospitalis.

Véase también

 Fijación de carbono
 Ciclo de Calvin
 Ciclo de Krebs inverso
 Ruta de Wood-Ljungdahl

Referencias

Enlaces externos
 Rutas metabólicas

Metabolismo

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Northern Bobwhite
Virginia quail, Bobwhite quail
Galliformes
Odontophoridae
Colinus
Colinus virginianus
5.8 Mln
The Northern bobwhite is a member of the order Galliformes, from the Latin 'gallinaceus', which means "of poultry." They belong to the same order as domestic fowl, also including turkeys, grouse, pheasants, partridges and other quail. They are also members of the family Odontophoridae, New World quails with a serrated lower mandible. The strong whistle of a bobwhite in piney woods or a grassy field has long been associated with summer in the countryside of the east of the American continent. It's much harder to sight a northern bobwhite, as its elegantly dappled plumage affords excellent camouflage. These birds are more often heard than seen; although they are not especially shy, often they remain within dense low cover.
Granivore
Precocial
Photos with Northern Bobwhite
Northern bobwhites are found from Central America to southeastern Ontario. The largest populations are in Mexico and the eastern United States. They are also found throughout Cuba, with isolated populations in northwestern Mexico, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. This species is found in a range of habitats, usually within pine woodlands or at the edges, in shrubs, pastures, cultivated areas and fallow fields.
North America, Asia, Europe
Caribbean Islands, Central America, East Asia
Canada, Cuba, Guatemala, Mexico, United States
Introduced Countries
Bahamas, China, Dominican Republic, France, Italy, Portugal
Tropical coniferous forests
Temperate coniferous forest
Temperate broadleaf and mixed forest
Desert and Xeric Shrublands
Temperate grasslands
Northern bobwhites are gregarious birds and live in flocks or "coveys", averaging about a dozen, outside of the breeding season. At night they roost in circles on the ground, tails pointing inward, heads pointing outwards. They have a male social hierarchical system. Northern bobwhites prefer to hide amongst vegetation when threatened or disturbed. They can stay motionless, their plumage blending into the environment. These birds are typically diurnal, and most feeding takes place during early morning and late afternoon. Able to fly relatively short distances, an average flight being 5.1 seconds, they are usually on the ground. Populations typically are sedentary, year-round residents, especially in areas where there is habitat of moderate to high quality. Bobwhites use many calls to initiate and direct group movement: one call is for food location, there are 11 to help avoid enemies, six are sexual or combative and two are parental calls.
bevy, covey, drift
Terrestrial, Precocial, Sedentary
The Northern bobwhite are predominantly herbivores (folivores and granivores), they mainly eats plant matter like the seeds of various plants, acorns, leaves, fruits, buds and tubers. In summer, it catches spiders, insects, snails and small vertebrates.
Diet Herbivore, Folivore, Granivore
February-October
INCUBATION PERIOD
12-14 eggs
Originally considered monogamous, now clear evidence shows a polygynandrous (promiscuous) mating system for Northern bobwhites, meaning that males and females both incubate and raise chicks with not just one mate during a breeding season. The season is from February to October, according to the region. Courtship displays involve a variety of postures by the male, with his wings spread or dropped, for the purpose of exposing to the female his plumage and head pattern, There is also ritual courtship feeding of the female by the male. These birds nest in a shallow depression in the ground lined with dead vegetation and grass. The nest is often hidden and covered. Usually 12-14 eggs are laid. If there is a second clutch, there are fewer eggs. Incubation is for about 23-26 days. Chicks are precocial, and, soon after hatching, they wander off from the nest. They are guarded by both parents or just the female. Chicks grow quickly and are able to flutter at one week old and fly at two. Northern bobwhites can mate within their first year.
Populations of this species are declining. The major reasons for this are thought to be habitat loss, especially as a result of the increase in farming on a large scale, and the reduction of suitable habitat plots and fence rows. Hunting in the U.S. is another threat.
The All About Birds resource records that the total breeding population of Northern bobwhites is 5.8 million, with 84% in the U.S., while 11% are in Mexico. Currently this species is classified as Near Threatened (NT) on the IUCN Red List and its numbers today are decreasing.
Ecological niche
Northern bobwhites are an important prey species for birds of prey as well as small terrestrial predators. These birds are also important foliage and seed predators and may have an effect on the plant communities where they live.
A group of bobwhites is known as a "covey", "bevy", and "name dropping" of bobwhites.
The name "bobwhite" comes from their whistling calls that make the sound "bob-white" and "bob-bob-white". These calls are particularly frequent and loud during the spring.
Northern bobwhites take about 5 days to build their nest.
A Northern bobwhite is able to store food in its crop (food storage area) for digesting later. This means it can go without food for quite a while.
Northern bobwhites are often known as "King of native American game birds".
Northern bobwhites are amongst the most widely studied bird species.
At night, Northern bobwhites watch out for predators by forming a circle on the ground, their heads facing out and their tails pointing in.
1. Northern Bobwhite Wikipedia article - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_bobwhite
2. Northern Bobwhite on The IUCN Red List site - http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/22728956/0
Gunnison Sage-Grouse
Centrocercus minimus
Gambel's Quail
Callipepla gambelii
Greater Sage Grouse
Centrocercus urophasianus
Bonasa umbellus
Red Junglefowl
Gallus gallus
Himalayan Monal
Lophophorus impejanus
Callipepla californica
Mountain Quail
Oreortyx pictus
Crocodylus niloticus


Bhutan - Chariot World Tours Ltd.
Bhutan is known for its monasteries, fortresses (or dzongs) and dramatic landscapes that range from subtropical plains to steep mountains and valleys. In the High Himalayas, peaks such as 7,326m Jomolhari are popular trekking destinations. Paro Taktsang monastery (also known as Tiger's Nest) clings to cliffs above the forested Paro Valley.


text:
What do you think this is, a pub?
My latest poll was about whether pubs should be excluded from the Good Beer Guide if they at times reserved all seating for diners. Perhaps one might have expected a landslide in favour, but in fact there was a substantial minority of 26% who didn't agree, although perhaps some might have voted for a "depends on the circumstances" option. Sunday lunchtime only is very different from ten out of fourteen sessions in a week.
A well-known Stockport restaurant
I wasn't asking this out of the blue, but had a specific situation in mind. We are now in the season of selecting pubs for CAMRA's national Good Beer Guide for 2017. The Arden Arms in Stockport is a pub that features on CAMRA's National Inventory of Historic Pub Interiors, and indeed many would think it ranks near the top of that list. It has been in the Guide for many years, and serves a wide range of Robinsons beer well, at reasonable prices. The current licensees formerly ran That Café in Levenshulme, and have consistently served excellent food at the Arden. The interior, with its almost unique snug that can only be accessed by walking through the servery, must be the most characterful in Stockport.
But there is a fly in the ointment. In the past year or two, it seems the pub has adopted the practice of reserving all seating for diners. This applies every lunchtime, and early evenings Thursday to Saturday. Only a couple of weeks ago I arranged to meet a couple of friends in there early on a Friday evening, and one complained that he had been moved to accommodate diners. This is clearly outlined by Simon Everitt here – he was not at all happy, but managed to find solace in the nearby Boar's Head.
Now, while I retain a soft spot for the wet-only pub, it has to be accepted that, in the current climate, most pubs need to offer food to a greater or lesser extent. I have nothing against pubs serving food, pubs serving excellent food, or pubs where most of the customers are there for food. I'm a bit uneasy about pubs reserving some tables, but recognise that may be a sensible business decision. But if a pub decides to allocate all tables, and all seating, to diners, it crosses a line and sends out a clear message that drinkers are unwelcome. It isn't just advance bookings either – tables are also prioritised for walk-in diners.
I have to admit that I am torn here. The Arden Arms is a fine pub in many respects, and outside of dining hours drinkers will have no problem. We regularly hold meetings of the local CAMRA branch there. Many Good Beer Guide users will be happy to be directed there and, at lunchtimes, many will be seeking food anyway. But, if it goes in the Guide, it needs a clear qualification that "at time all seats are reserved for diners". And should a pub taking that attitude towards the casual drinker be included at all?
Posted by Curmudgeon on January 31, 2016 21 comments:
Held in trust
The Fleece, Bretforton - a historic pub owned by the National Trust
Cooking Lager has sometimes been known to tease me by arguing that pubs are just like any other retail business and, if they're not successful, the best thing is to shut them down and replace them with something else. He's certainly got a point, that some people seem to struggle with the concept that pubs are commercial businesses at all, and few are likely to mourn the demise of a trendy bar in the ground floor of an office block, or a Hungry Horse on a retail park.
But some pubs mean much more to people than that – they become part of the community, memories of good times and past landlords are handed down from generation to generation, and they are valued as a local resource even by people who don't visit them much. Pubs, after all, are about the only kind of business that people actually visit to spend time socialising. In the centre of many English villages, you will find a pub and a church opposite each other, and they are seen as something that defines the character of the place. The problem, though, is that affection alone does not put any money over the bar or in the collection plate. As Rowan Pelling has perceptively written, We love pubs and churches, but don't want to use them.
Many of the vocal "Save the Pub" campaigners seem to view the decline of pubs as the result of an unholy combination of asset-stripping pub companies, greedy developers, apathetic councils and lax planning laws. There's something in this, and pub companies certainly can't be regarded as model businesses, but the activists pretty much entirely ignore the long-term decline in the demand for pubs. Yes, some pubs have been revived by better management but, seriously, all those beached whale estate pubs, inner-urban locals where all the drinkers have disappeared, isolated rural inns? Nothing could have saved most of them and, at the end of the day, you can't force people to keep unprofitable businesses going.
So maybe, if we want to keep endangered pubs, we need to grasp the nettle and accept that many will never be successful in strict commercial terms. This will mean stumping up the money to buy them without any expectation of financial return. There's a clear precedent for this in the form of the National Trust which, from small beginnings, has expanded to have over four million members and to be custodians of hundreds of precious historic buildings. In a sense, unspoilt pubs could be regarded as "the people's stately homes". The National Trust does own a handful of pubs, amongst which the lovely Fleece at Bretforton in Worcestershire, pictured above, is probably the best known. You could also consider the amount of time and money that has been expended over the years on preserved steam railways.
It wouldn't necessarily need a National Pub Trust: it could be done regionally, or through associations of local co-operatives. Possibly pub operators could be given a tax incentive to dispose of pubs to pub trusts rather than for alternative use, just as owners of historic buildings can waive inheritance tax if they bequeath them to the National Trust. If the trust owned the freehold and paid for upkeep, then outside operators could be invited to run the place as a pub for minimal or zero rent. If nobody was even interested in that, volunteers could open it up on Sunday afternoons for afternoon teas and a few bottles. Yes, it might lead to a lot of twee, middle-class pubs preserved in aspic but, as long as the fabric remains intact, then surely that is infinitely better than no pub at all. And, if you want to keep pubs that no commercial operator considers viable, it's the only way it can be done.
Individual membership of the National Trust is £60 a year. I'd happily stump up £30 for pubs. Would you?
The wrong kind of diversity
In recent weeks we have had discussions on the amount of diversity (or lack of) in the beer world in the spheres of race and class. And it's long been a source of complaint in terms of female representation. But is there another aspect of diversity we're missing?
The great (and black) American economist and philosopher Thomas Sowell once said: "The next time some academics tell you how important diversity is, ask how many Republicans there are in their sociology department."
Which could easily be paraphrased as "The next time some craft brewers tell you how important diversity is, ask how many Tories and Kippers there are amongst their number".
And the growth of microbreweries and craft beer in recent decades could be seen as a perfect example of individual enterprise and free markets in action.
For a recent example of the limits of diversity, look no further than here.
Happiness is a warm pub
There's been a lot of publicity this week about the benefits of having a good local pub. The value of companionship and belonging in pubs is something I've often referred to, and so I will wholeheartedly agree. As Dr Johnson famously said, "There is nothing which has yet been contrived by man, by which so much happiness is produced as by a good tavern or inn."
But I have to question whether this represents a sentimental idea of pubs viewed through rose-tinted spectacles. How many people really have a "local" that produces that warm, inclusive feeling? I have a local pub, which I've written about extensively on here, that in many respects is very good. But, at many times, it isn't welcoming to me because of part being reserved for diners and the rest dominated by TV football. You can't go in and just have a chat with other customers.
For many people in Stockport, their "local" is the Crown, Magnet or Railway, even though they're far from the closest to their houses. The pubs where I feel most at home are ones I have to travel some distance to reach. And the Rover's Return, while it may have been vaguely realistic in 1960, would simply not exist in an inner-city location today.
Yes, pubs can be great, and people will tend to seek out pubs and become regular customers where they feel welcome and which suit their tastes. But I suspect few of us can genuinely claim that we have that cosy, friendly, supportive, mythical "local".
Both hands required
Last week I attended the Manchester Beer & Cider Festival held in the former G-MEX in Manchester City Centre. In general, I'm not a great fan of beer festivals as a customer, as I much prefer drinking in a pub environment, but this one was hard to fault, in particular the generous provision of seating. Martin Taylor gives it a highly positive review here. I also had the pleasure of meeting face-to-face a number of people who I'd previously only encountered through Twitter and the blogoshire.
However, it reminded me of a perennial problem encountered by the solo drinker at a beer festival (which wasn't me on this occasion) – what to do with your glass when you go to the toilet. If you've found a seat, you can leave it there, but the chances of it disappearing must be far greater than in a pub, especially since the glass deposit is worth three quid. But, if you're standing up, you have little choice but to take it in with you. There were guys holding a pint glass in one hand while unzipping and aiming with the other, which takes a bit of practice. In happier days, I remember seeing a bloke doing this with a fag in his mouth too! Others managed to balance their half-pint glasses on the top of the urinals. I assume the ladies take them into the WC and put them on the floor.
The whole thing is blatantly unsanitary, and unsatisfactory on many other levels. It's the sort of issue that people are reluctant to discuss but really needs to be addressed. Maybe a table could be placed at the entrance to the toilets for people to leave their glasses.
Incidentally, while I wouldn't regard this as a criticism of the organisers, as it's the responsibility of the venue, the gents' had small queues on Wednesday evening. I wonder if they were overwhelmed on Friday night – and the ladies' maybe even worse. This is a common problem at beer festivals, because the demand for toilets is inevitably going to be much greater than at any other events held in the venues. Not an issue at Stockport, though, which is held in a football ground where the toilets are designed to cater for large numbers at the same time.
Is brewing immoral?
There's a rather hysterical article in today's Guardian claiming that the alcohol industry makes most of its profits from "problem drinkers". In a sense this is no more than a statement of the bleeding obvious that they will make more money from customers who buy more of their product. And the definition of "people whose drinking is destroying or risking their health" is anyone who consumes more than the official guidelines, which includes many whose mortality risk is better than that of teetotallers. It is basically just a regurgitation of a press release from the Alcohol Health Alliance, who can't be regarded as impartial observers.
This does in some people's minds raise the question of how alcohol manufacturers can sleep at night when they are selling products to people who consume them in a self-destructive way. Or are they just evil monsters happy to profit from others' misfortunes? The correct response to this is surely that alcoholic drinks are legal products that are consumed by most in a moderate fashion and bring pleasure to vast numbers of people. Adults must be treated as empowered individuals responsible for their own life decisions, not as children who must be protected from themselves. People who develop a drinking problem deserve help, but it should not be used as a justification for imposing restrictions on everyone else. And it is well nigh-impossible to draw a clear dividing line between products targeted at "responsible" and "irresponsible" consumers.
But it is part of a process of delegitimising alcohol producers. The official line is steadily edging towards the position that no level of consumption can be regarded as safe, and when that happens, brewers, vintners and distillers will be making all their profits from problem drinkers. This is what has already happened to the tobacco industry – it is regarded as a "toxic trade" and excluded from any involvement in policy discussions about the tobacco market. The last cigarette factory in the UK recently closed, but many will have said "good riddance". How long will it be before the producers of alcoholic drinks are viewed in the same way?
Edit: the article is dissected here by Christopher Snowdon with his usual aplomb.
Posted by Curmudgeon on January 23, 2016 6 comments:
And Jill came tumbling after
Sad news, although not entirely unexpected, that the Jack and Jill in Brinnington has closed its doors after around sixty years of trading. It was the last pub serving this large estate – the Farmers Arms and Cheshire Cat have both been closed for many years, and the Horsfield Arms, on the main road at the other end in front of Robinsons' packaging plant, shut a couple of years ago and has recently been demolished.
It was a long, rather elegant single-storey building that architecturally could easily have passed for a primary school from the same era. Certainly it was very different from the grim, brutalist estate pubs of a decade later. I hadn't been in for years but remember it retaining many original design features. To Robinsons' credit, they are marketing it without any restrictive covenant, and say "The pub will be offered for sale on the open market and we fully support the property being sold as a licensed premises." I'd be very surprised if anyone did come in to buy it as a pub, though.
The classic estate boozer is now a rapidly dwindling species, and you have to wonder, as I discussed here, whether it was a misconceived concept from the start. Of course, wet-led pubs in working class areas were always going to be hit particularly hard by the smoking ban, but there's more to it than that. Maybe there could be scope for specialist operators such as Amber Taverns to make something of them, whereas they don't really fit in with Robinsons' business philosophy which is to aim for a much more up-market appeal. In the past few years they have closed or sold probably about a quarter of their estate, mostly from what would be called the "bottom end".
But never mind, a new micropub one-twentieth the size has just opened up in a location nowhere near Brinnington, so all's well with the world really.
Not so special
A while back, I did a number of posts about extra-strong "super" lagers and the potential effect on them of High Strength Beer Duty. I predicted that there was a good chance that their makers would either reduce their strength to 7.5% ABV to avoid HSBD, or bring out cheaper 7.5% versions. In fact, this didn't happen, and, with the exception of Gold Label (which is a barley wine anyway) they remained defiantly stuck at 9%. It's an odd hidden backwater of the beer market where there's no advertising, and product innovation is virtually impossible.
However, as Ed Wray reports, the strength of Carlsberg Special has now been reduced to 8%, which perhaps was the price to be paid for getting it back into the mainstream supermarkets. (Thanks Ed for the picture) I'm not going to go round dodgy corner shops peering at the super lager section, so I can't confirm whether this also applies to Kestrel, Skol and Tennents, although the Kestrel website does state that it is "now also available in an 8% variant."
The Kestrel tasting notes are a classic, and taken in isolation would surely imply a brew that is an acme of "craft":
Appearance: Honey-hued polished gold and ephemeral white foam create an intriguing spectacle.
Aroma: A perfumed sweetness and oaked spirit nose indicate something special to be discovered in this handsome liquid.
Flavour: Sweet toffee and honeyed twists, turns and loops combine with a concentrated wine-like fruitiness, feisty light rum, swirls of malt, and decidedly ripe dessert apple richness.
Mouthfeel and finish: Powerfully spirited and a juicy spice palate with astonishing depth.
I get the impression that the Carlsberg Special strength reduction has more to do with pressure from anti-drink groups about selling cans of beer that contain more than the daily guideline, than about moving to a more market-friendly price point. Now that the guideline has been reduced to 3 units a day, will it have to be cut further to 6.8%, I wonder. I've sometimes thought that it would make sense to repackage these beers in "craft" 330ml cans.
As I've reported in the past, all the 9% super lagers were actually pretty unpleasant, their only function being as an easy way to neck large quantities of alcohol. Skol Super was perhaps the best of a bad lot. Ironically, reducing their strength may end up making them more palatable. The 7.2% Carlsberg Elephant Beer (not seen for ages) is actually an excellent brew.
At £7.30 for a 4-pack, Carlsberg Special at 51.8p per unit, doesn't by any means offer the best bangs-per-buck ratio in Tesco. The 7.3% McEwans Champion (another unheralded tramp favourite) can be got for £6 for 4x500ml bottles (41.1p), while the apparently classy 6.5% Old Crafty Hen, on the same offer, is 46.2p. You have to wonder how long it will be before some of the stronger "craft" offerings end up in the same category.
While these products are often dismissed as "tramp juice", I get the impression they also have a strong customer base amongst respectable drinkers who want to trade quantity for strength. A few years back, I remember seeing in my local convenience store a bearded guy of about 60, who certainly didn't come across as a derelict, pay £12 for two 4x500 ml packs of Tennents Super, load them into his 4x4 and drive off. Well, I thought, that's his weekend sorted, then!
The past is a foreign country
In May 1988, I went on a CAMRA-organised march to protest against the closure of Oldham Brewery by Boddingtons, who had taken it over in 1982. This moment was captured forever in the picture above, which appears in the 1989 Good Beer Guide. The gormless speccy twat second from the right is me, looking considerably more fresh-faced than now. The gnome-like fellow in the foreground is the late stalwart of North Manchester CAMRA Pete Cash.
I remember it being a fairly balmy Spring day in Manchester, but once the ancient diesel unit had climbed the five hundred feet to Oldham it was bitterly cold with intermittent snow showers. We eventually managed to find some of the remaining stocks of OB ales in a couple of pubs. To be honest, nobody imagined that the march would change Boddingtons' mind – it was more a question of bearing witness to the cause and marking the passing of the brewery.
Veteran pub-crawler Alan Winfield, who has contributed many photos and pub descriptions to Pubs Galore, has recently started his own blog The Never Ending Pub Crawl to record his various expeditions over the years. In February 1987 he undertook a pub crawl of Oldham to experience Oldham Brewery pubs before being "Boddingtonised". He covered 13 pubs in one lunchtime, accompanied by his long-suffering wife, to whom he is apparently still happily married. Why have I never found a woman like that?
These pubs were mostly basic inner-urban boozers, but most served real ale and had their own distinctive character. Today, most are probably closed, and those that remain are unlikely to have cask beer. I remember doing crawls like that in the 1980s in places such as Eccles and Stourbridge, but you couldn't do it now. I don't think I ever went to 13 pubs in one lunchtime, though. When you consider that kind of pub devastation, which is paralleled in many other areas, all these claims that "it has never been a better time to be a beer drinker in Britain" ring very hollow.
Ironically, after the takeover, Boddingtons gave the OB pubs a much more stylish livery. But the brewery's identity didn't last, and I wouldn't be surprised to learn that over half of the OB pubs in existence in 1987 have since closed. They had a very tight-knit estate, with few pubs more than five miles from the brewery in the town centre.
Boar's Ahead
A few jaws must have dropped last Thursday night at the news that the Stockport & South Manchester Branch of CAMRA had chosen as its Pub of the Year for 2016* the Boar's Head on Stockport Market Place, a Sam Smith's tied house.
It's rare that such an award goes to a family brewer's pub at all, and especially to one outside the well-known local four of Holts, Hydes, Lees and Robinsons, that is well-known for its eccentric and secretive management style What's more, it only serves one real ale, and one that very much goes against the current pale and hoppy trend.
But it serves that one beer consistently well, meriting a place in the Good Beer Guide for the past three years. Last year we had a tour of the extensive cellars and saw the row of wooden barrels of Old Brewery Bitter on the stillage. Yes, full 36-gallon barrels. How many pubs still have the turnover to justify them? There was, of course, also an extensive array of kegs – it serves eight different keg beers, plus cider. Cellar tours proved very popular during Stockport Beer Week in September.
It always seems busy, even when other nearby pubs are quiet, and is heaving on market days. Vast quantities of beer are shifted – it must be amongst the top pubs in Stockport for sheer volume of beer sold. It has been run for seven years by Terry and Sue Wild, who provide a warm welcome and also have a team of cheerful and enthusiastic staff. There's a wide cross-section of customers, and it's the kind of place where complete strangers will start chatting to each other, the absence of TV football and piped music making this much easier.
It may be difficult to define a "proper pub", but this certainly qualifies. Plus it's cheaper than the Wetherspoons a couple of hundred yards away, with Old Brewery Bitter currently just £1.80 a pint. I wrote about a lunchtime visit last year here - I wonder if the pub cat will make an appearance on the presentation night.
It would be dull if all Pubs of the Year were of the same type, and it makes a refreshing change to see one selected on the basis of atmosphere and welcome rather than number of different beers.
I was going to do a post about how people have a kind of mental image of pubs, which increasingly varies from the reality, except in Sam's pubs. In many areas, they're becoming about the only places where you can enjoy a quiet drink and a chat in comfortable, cosy surroundings. So many others are now dominated by food, or TV sport, or are specialist beer outlets with a narrow clientele. This award rather makes my point for me.
* It should be pointed out that the Pub of the Year is chosen from the previous year's twelve Pubs of the Month, and that Ye Olde Vic in Edgeley, which has been the subject of a community buyout, was a strong second.
A solution looking for a problem?
Many members of CAMRA will have been somewhat taken aback to read an article in December's What's Brewing about "Real Ale in a Keg", which is to be trialled at the forthcoming Manchester Beer & Cider Festival. Surely, some may think, this is the ultimate betrayal – an organisation originally set up to fight keg ending up embracing it. As Orwell wrote in Animal Farm, "The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."
Of course, it's nowhere near as simple as that. Many of the new wave of "craft keg" beers are essentially conventional kegs, where the beer is filtered, and a cylinder of CO2 is connected up to the container to propel it to the tap at the bar. However, some use a system called "KeyKeg", which is well explained here by Magic Rock Brewing. Here, the beer is held in an inner bag within the container, in a similar way to bag-in-box wine, and the dispense gas exerts pressure on this bag to push the beer to the bar, but doesn't actually come into contact with it. A big advantage of this for small breweries is that it uses one-way containers, so all the trouble of reclaiming empty kegs is avoided, although obviously there is a cost penalty.
People soon realised that, if the beer in the keykeg was unfiltered, and therefore retained its natural yeast, it could qualify as "real ale", as it could undergo a secondary fermentation, and avoids all contact with the CO2 used to pressurise the outer container. Now, CAMRA has always been notorious for pedantic nitpicking over methods of dispense, which I have to say I've never been able to get particularly worked up about. It's not so much the principle, as the mind-blowing black and whiteness of it all. Ideally, it would be better to serve cask beer without a cask breather, but to my mind it's far preferable to either proper keg or sour cask. A potential problem immediately occurs to me that, as the inner container does not vent to the atmosphere, if a meaningful secondary fermentation does take place, it could lead to a build-up of CO2, thus producing very fizzy beer and possibly stirring up the sediment to dispense cloudy beer. But I'm no expert.
The question occurs, though, as to what problem this system is actually meant to solve. It reminds me of the great Dr Johnson when he said: "Sir, a woman's preaching is like a dog's walking on his hind legs. It is not done well; but you are surprised to find it done at all." So, you can (perhaps) serve real ale from a keg. But I doubt whether that will make any difference to the customer who is already happy to drink craft keg, and the average punter who goes into a pub and looks for handpumps on the bar will just regard it as another keg beer, even if it has a little notice saying "this is actually real ale". And some may fear that it is, in a sense, relegitimising keg beer and may end up to be the thin end of the wedge.
I'll give it a try if I come across it, but I can't really see it becoming a mass-market phenomenon, especially given the extra cost and dubious environmental credentials of disposable containers. And, personally, if I order a keg beer, the least I would expect is that it will be crystal clear, as that surely is one of keg's key advantages. At the end of the day, it's hard to see "real ale in a keg" being any more than an exercise in proving a point.
No hiding place
Over the past few days, the media have been full of stories about the decision of the UK's Chief Medical Officer to reduce the recommended maximum levels of alcohol consumption, and to state explicitly that no level can be considered "safe". This has been thoroughly demolished by Christopher Snowdon, and there's little I can add to that.
The subject has also attracted the ire of some of our most respected newspaper columnists. In the Guardian, Simon Jenkins wrote that The state needs to butt out of Britain's drinking habits, concluding by saying "France has the best government guidance on alcohol consumption. It has none." And this surely is the nub of the matter:
Everything we do in life is risky, including much that some people enjoy and others deplore. Most daily risks we assess and accept for ourselves. We would be furious if Whitehall laid down risk and safety limits for riding horses, climbing mountains, eating foreign food and playing rugby. All involve far greater danger than marginal changes in consuming alcohol.
Then, in today's Daily Telegraph, Charles Moore has urged Don't let the public health zealots demonise us innocent drinkers, in which he makes this crucial point:
But something more important is being missed. These guidelines are not intended to stand alone. They are twists of a ratchet. Public health zealots, like environmentalist ones, work always to construct a net of public policies that will eventually ensnare whatever group it is they dislike.
The model in their minds is tobacco. Having succeeded in virtually outlawing smoking, they want to do the same with alcohol. If they can create the public "fact" that there is no such thing as safe drinking, they can then attack everyone who brews, distils, makes wine, or runs a pub, club or restaurant, for pushing something which is unsafe.
If there is no safe level of consumption, then producers and retailers of alcohol are denied any cloak of respectability. They are no longer valued corporate citizens: they are engaged in a "toxic trade".
JTI Gallaher are currently in the process of closing down a large cigarette factory in Ballymena, Northern Ireland, which employed 800 people. Local MP Ian Paisley Jr has protested about the economic blight this will produce. But a lot of people will think "I'm sorry people are losing their jobs, but maybe in the long term we'd be better off without that."
Brewers, distillers, cidermakers, wineries, pubs, bars, off-licences – one day, in the not too distant future, that could be you.
Keep your powder dry
This month we are yet again being subjected to Alcohol Concern's Dry January campaign which aims to encourage people to give up alcohol entirely during January (and hopefully beyond that too). In past years, this has just been seen as an irritant, but it seems to be here to stay, and brewers and pub operators are coming up with ways to turn the slogan round to their advantage. For example, Dark Star have launched a special "dry" version of their renowned Hophead ale, and cidermakers have been emphasising their range of "dry" interpretations.
More and more pubs are using the "Tryanuary" or "Try January" themes to encourage people to come in and try something a little out of the ordinary. Incidentally, while I'm aware these two campaigns have different origins, their purpose is much the same, and surely someone needs to knock their collective heads together to make them combine their efforts. One of the key reasons for the success of the beer duty campaign was that everybody in the industry united around the same message.
And this statement on the FaceBook page of RedNev's local pub in Southport, the Guest House, shows that pubs have given it some thought and come up with a considered response.
We believe that a responsible approach to drinking is the only way to go, and so would like to state our position on #Dryanuary.
Dryanuary is an ill-conceived scheme whereby tens of thousands of people across Britain will be convinced that, by boycotting their local pubs, they'll actually be achieving something. What really happens, guys, is that these businesses lose money in their toughest period of the year and we lose more local pubs. Instead of giving up for a month, why not just have 11 pints when you go out instead of 12?
#Tryanuary is designed to protect our local pubs against the devastating effects of a scheme that seems intent on destroying our industry.
"If you're considering Dryanuary please fully consider the ramifications."
Make no mistake, this campaign has gone well beyond appealing to people's individual conscience to become a direct attempt to undermine the pub and brewing trades, as I have said in this month's column in Opening Times. January has always been the quietest time of the year for pubs, and encouraging large numbers of people to boycott them is just going to drive more to the wall. It is no good saying that people can go to the pub and have soft drinks, as realistically they are never going to match their spending on alcohol, and many might feel that if they want to avoid alcohol entirely it's best to avoid the temptation of the pub.
In this context, this open letter from Alcohol Concern to pubs really is an example of the most disgusting hypocrisy. Ultimately, they don't give a toss about pubs, they want to see them all closed down or at best reduced to emasculated dining venues. Who has ever made a point of visiting a particular pub because of its choice of soft drinks? No pub should have anything to do with promoting or encouraging this campaign.
It's even worse for small breweries. Pubs can supposedly fall back on food and soft drink sales, but that isn't an option for brewers. They are also often critically dependent on keeping cashflow going. Drastically reducing their income for one month in a year will be a real kick in the balls.
It's also disturbing that Dry January are referring to giving up alcohol as "one less sin". Sin isn't a very fashionable concept nowadays, and many things that were once considered sinful are now generally accepted. But is drinking alcohol per se a sin? Really? Presumably that is why Jesus turned the wine into water at the wedding at Cana. Oh wait...
In the past, it's been possible for alcohol producers to claim that "drinking in moderation is compatible with a healthy lifestyle" but, especially with the recent reduction in the risible official consumption guidelines, this is becoming an ever-shrinking figleaf. If you can only drink one and a half pints of weakish beer a day, and are expected to have two days off a week, it seems hardly worth bothering. As I argued here, if the drinks industry tries to directly engage with the antis on the health issue, they will always lose.
Instead, we need to encourage a more sensible and mature approach to risk. The media are full of stories saying that x or y will double your risk of cancer, but that risk usually turns out to be absolutely infinitesimal. Twice sweet FA is still sweet FA. As the American satirist P. J. O'Rourke said, "Everything that's fun in life is dangerous. And everything that isn't fun is dangerous too. It's impossible to be alive and safe."
Of course he was quite right. Everything in life involves some risk. If we never took any risks, we would never achieve anything. If you stay in the house, you're at less risk of being involved in a traffic accident. But you may die from starvation. Most sporting activites, notably rugby, horse-riding and mountaineering, carry a much greater risk of injury or death than simply abstaining. But we accept that people gain pleasure and fulfilment from these things and, if they choose to engage in them, that's their decision.
Exactly the same is true of alcohol, and indeed any other alleged dietary "sins" such as eating chocolate bars or sausages. Yes, it may involve a bit of risk, but unless you really overdo it, that risk is pretty small. Risk in human life can never be wholly eliminated, and surely, as adults, we should be trusted to make our own decisions about which enjoyable activities we choose to engage in. It's also worth remembering that the overwhelming weight of scientific evidence points to the overall health risk from alcohol following a J-curve (image courtesy of Christopher Snowdon). And you have to drink a fair bit more than the official guidelines to equal the risk of total abstention. It may well be true that "there is no safe level of alcohol consumption." But that includes zero.
We recently mourned the death of Ian Fraser Kilmister, better known as Lemmy, who actually began his musical career in Stockport. He was hardly a role model for moderation of any kind, but he said "Everything that is pleasant in life is dangerous." And he was right.
Recent months have been notable for a number of examples of major international brewers taking over some of the more successful craft breweries – Lagunitas and Ballast Point in the US, and Meantime and Camden in the UK. This has resulted in widespread disappointment amongst craft beer fans, feeling that they have been sold out or even betrayed.
Many would argue that the size of the company making it shouldn't affect your opinion of a beer, but this attitude is understandable given that, at least in the US, the craft brewers originally sprang up to challenge the big boys and their sea of mediocre, bland beer. Selling out to "the man" is, for many, hard to forgive. On the other hand, if you are offered £85 million for a business that on a normal return-on-investment basis is worth £15 million, you will have to have some mighty principles to refuse.
It's easy to see these takeovers in simplistic terms as buying out potentially threatening competition but, in reality, the reasoning is more complex, as Zak Avery explains here. It's a recognition that "interesting" beer is the only section of the market that is growing, and the major brewers want a share of that. It also offers much higher margins. But they will have to be very careful not to devalue the brand equity by cost-cutting and dumbing down. Beer probably has more vocal and savvy buyers than any other consumer product.
There is a parallel in the way that, over the lifetime of CAMRA, many well-loved independent brewers have been taken over by their bigger brethren. Yates & Jackson, Simpkiss, Hardys & Hansons, it's a long list. If you have a copy of the 1989 Good Beer Guide you will find a photo of my good self on a protest march about the closure of Oldham Brewery. But this was all about acquiring more tied pubs, not buying brands. Promises about maintaining the character of beers and keeping breweries open almost always turned out to be written in sand. And, with very few exceptions, the brewery owners agreed to be bought out rather than being subject to a hostile takeover bid. Family brewers tend to sell up when the owning family are no longer interested in the business.
But this raises an important point. It may not seem remotely relevant when you're just starting up, but ultimately every business requires either an exit strategy, or a continuation strategy. Over the past couple of years, we've had a number of "meet the brewer" presentations at meetings of our local CAMRA branch. It's hard to generalise – some are young people who still have a day job but hope to go full-time, some give the impression of doing it on daddy's money, some have a fully worked-out, ambitious business plan, some are doing it as a retirement or redundancy project. The one thing they have in common is an enthusiasm for beer beyond simply wanting to make money.
There will come a time, though, when every individual small business owner wants to move on. Most micro-breweries eventually just shut up shop because the owner has become too old, or unwell, or has lost interest, or isn't making a worthwhile profit. If you look at the micros from the first couple of decades of CAMRA, few are still in existence in any form. In many cases, the brewing kit will be sold to someone else wanting to start up a brewery, which will give them a welcome leg-up.
Sometimes, the brewery can be sold as a going concern to someone else. This has happened both to small one-man operations and sizeable, established concerns such as Butcombe and Exmoor Ales. Or you can pass it on to your children or relatives, which has been the modus operandi of the family brewers. I'm sure there have been examples of this amongst micros, but I can't readily think of any examples.
Ultimately, there's the possibility of turning it into a listed company that is owned by a broad spread of shareholders and run by professional managers. But I think the last British start-up brewery to do that was set up in the 19th century. Or you can sell your operation to a larger rival, which is what start-ups in all sectors have been doing since the dawn of business. If you're approaching retirement, or if you get an irresistible offer, who can blame you?
And there's always the question of when Messrs Watt and Dickie of BrewDog will eventually get the offer they can't refuse, even though they have been quick to exclude sell-out beers like Lagunitas and Camden from their bars and nail their flag of independence to the mast. Or will BrewDog become a world-bestriding colossus of craft beer? Only time will tell.


text:
Red Sox Rumors: Adalberto Mondesí Traded to BOS from Royals for Josh Taylor
Related Topics: Josh Taylor, Boston Red Sox, Adalberto Mondesí, Kansas City Royals, Mark Feinsand
The Boston Red Sox reportedly agreed to a trade with the Kansas City Royals for shortstop Adalberto Mondesí on Tuesday.
According to MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, the Red Sox will receive Mondesí and a player to be named later for left-handed pitcher Josh Taylor.
Mondesí, who is the son of former MLB outfielder Raúl Mondesí, has missed most of the past three seasons due to injury.
This article will be updated soon to provide more information and analysis.
For more from Bleacher Report on this topic and from around the sports world, check out our B/R app, homepage and social feeds—including Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok.


Given the current tensions, the present volume, Negotiating Asymmetry: China's Place in Asia, is a particularly apt collection of essays which looks at the same set of "inherently asymmetric" relationship between China and the smaller Asian countries from a much longer perspective. All the papers were presented in a conference organised by the Asia Research Institute held at Singapore in 2006. Anthony Reid, one of the co-editors, ambitiously set up the volume's aim to be a successor publication to two other earlier classics, namely, The Chinese World Order (1968) and China among Equals (1983).
Undoubtedly, the present wrangle around China's regional waters has darkened the mood about China's intentions. This volume's long term perspective provides a useful corrective in uncovering the probable trajectory of China's relationships with her smaller neighbours. The conclusions drawn from the various chapters in this book are almost counter-intuitive. But, it was just a few years ago, Singapore's ambassador to the United States Chan Heng Chee said that, "[Historically] It was China's economic power and cultural superiority that drew these countries into its orbit and was the magnet for their cultivation of relations." If this book is any guide, countries in Asia would probably have adroitly, over the next decade, ritualized a set of diplomatic engagements with Beijing that will ameliorate diplomatic tensions, reaffirm the nexus of ideas and commerce between China and its neighbours, and rationalize China's regional presence.


This royal blue dress was a great pick for a family dinner during the Thanksgiving weekend. It was unseasonably hot all weekend and I wanted something that I'd be comfortable in with the heat, but I still wanted to have a fall vibe. Royal blue is a great color to bridge the gap between the seasons because it's bright, but not overtly "summer". When I paired it with this sleek beige jacket and sparkly pumps, it took this simple, comfortable dress to a new level. When I can feel comfy but look put together, I'm very happy!