Life expectancy has started to decline in some of the world's most prosperous countries, and there seems to be a powerful link between that and falling real wages. Come to think of it, there is even a link between austerity and falling life expectancy as the Greeks learned in 2010-2012. With ageing of the populace at large, tax revenues will decline in the years to come, which raises the big question: Will life expectancy continue to decline despite numerous medical advances, as society won't be able to afford the latest, but also the most expensive, treatment forms?
When, in meetings, I make the point that life expectancy has started to decline in some of the most prosperous countries, I often run into a wall of disbelief. Many simply don't believe me, so I decided to do some further digging.
In my search for answers, I made some quite interesting observations (if anything to do with death can ever be described as interesting), and I will share those observations with you today. While it is indeed correct that life expectancy at birth has dropped modestly in some developed countries in recent years, there are a few caveats. I strongly suspect those caveats have coloured perceptions.
Before I go any further, let me throw some numbers at you to prove my case. As per the most recent statistics, overall US life expectancy at birth averaged 78.6 years in 2017 – down from 78.7 years in 2016 (Exhibit 1). Whereas women held steady at 81.1 years, life expectancy for men dropped from 76.3 to 76.1 years. Life expectancy in the US has now dropped every year since 2015.
	they live in the South.
Now to the UK where a very similar picture is unfolding. As per a recent life expectancy report from the Office for National Statistics, life expectancy at birth for the country as a whole didn't change much from 2015 to 2017 (Exhibit 2), but fell meaningfully in the poorer parts of the country (Wales, Scotland and Northern England).
Within the OECD, Italy has experienced the biggest decline in life expectancy in recent years. The latest statistics I have on hand from that country suggest a decline in life expectancy at birth from 2015 to 2016 of about three months (see here).
Allow me to make two comments. Firstly, for the sake of full transparency, I should point out that most other OECD countries have experienced a modest – albeit a very modest – increase in life expectancy more recently.
Secondly, as I have pointed out more than once in recent Absolute Return Letters, the three countries which have experienced the biggest decline in living standards (i.e. the biggest drop in real wages) over the last 20 years or so are Italy, the UK and the US. The fact that those three countries have also experienced a decline in life expectancy sounds to me as too much of a coincidence, so I decided to dig a little bit more into this.
For starters, we don't necessarily get all the finer details correct when looking at these sorts of things because most of us suffer from cognitive biases. Take me as an example. I socialise mostly with other well-educated people, predominantly from the financial services industry. That colours my perception, and while it is indeed correct that the average person doesn't live as long as he did only a few years ago, it is not correct as far as the well-off are concerned.
The best way to illustrate that is to look at life expectancy in Monaco vis-à-vis life expectancy in the US. Life expectancy in Monaco is almost 90 years – more than four years longer than #2 on the list (Japan), and that is a massive difference in life expectancy terms. Meanwhile, the US - with more billionaires than any other country – is only #43 in the global league table with life expectancy averaging only 80 years.
Why such a massive difference between two seemingly very prosperous countries? The simple truth is that wealthy people can afford treatment forms that are not on offer to the man in the street. There are not many poor people in Monaco, whereas the average in the US is skewed by the extraordinary wealth held by a limited number of people, meaning that the median becomes a more relevant number than the average, and median wealth is much lower in the US than it is in Monaco.
Why have people started to die younger in the UK, Italy and the US? The Americans provide the most information, so let's focus on the 2018 study from the US Centers for Disease Control. Heart disease and cancer still kill most Americans, but that is not the reason life expectancy has fallen more recently.
To the contrary. During the last 100 years, substantial advances in treatment forms have actually led to a meaningful increase in life expectancy if you suffer from a heart disease of some sort or cancer, and that continues to be the case.
Having said that, a sharp rise in fatalities caused by lifestyle issues such as alcohol and drug abuse explain much of the decline in US life expectancy. Take for example the US death rate from drug overdoses. It rose by no less than 255% between 1999 and 2017 (Exhibit 3).
Likewise, as far as suicides are concerned, between 1999 and 2017, the US suicide rate has been constantly on the rise and is up about 33% over the entire period (Exhibit 4). I note that the US suicide rate is particularly high in rural parts of the country – more on that below.
Some commentators have blamed the easy access to guns in the US for the increase in suicides, particularly because the suicide rate is highest in rural parts of the country where access to guns is plentiful, but I don't buy that argument. Neither Italy nor the UK have easy access to guns, and both of those countries suffer from a suicide rate quite similar to that of the US - see for example this report from the Office for National Statistics, or see this article from the Huffington Post, where there is even a mention of a suicide epidemic in Italy.
Rather, I believe it has to do with economic conditions in those three countries. People are simply more suicidal during difficult times, and falling real wages in the UK, Italy and the US have driven many people in those countries to despair. Furthermore, as far as living standards are concerned, rural communities have been particularly badly affected, so no wonder the suicide rate is higher there.
If the man in the street is under pressure to make both ends meet financially, then substance abuse may be the way out for some, whereas suicide becomes the way out for others. I suspect there is a very powerful link between falling living standards and the recent drop in life expectancy.
Adding to that, if difficult economic conditions are not only about declining real wages, but governments are also forced to tighten the belt, then life expectancy is affected even more.
Researchers have found a statistically significant link between mortality and austerity. Greece provides plenty of evidence of that. As the crisis unfolded in Greece in 2008 and the years thereafter, far more Greeks died than suggested by the mortality tables. In 2012 alone, more people died in Greece than in any other year since 1949 (Exhibit 5).
The combination of ageing of the populace at large and new and better, but also more expensive, treatment forms is a massive dilemma for national health services when austerity is on the agenda. As society continues to age, this dilemma can only become an even bigger issue; hence life expectancy will most likely continue to improve for the well-off but not for the man in the street.
In December 2017 I wrote an Absolute Return Letter called Live and Let Die. In it, I argued very much along the same lines as I am arguing today. If you find the topic of interest, I would recommend you read it (again) which you can do by clicking here.
Now, how does all this add up? On one hand, it is not entirely impossible that life expectancy begins to rise again once we finally put the Global Financial Crisis behind us, and things return to some sort of normal (whatever that means).
On the other hand, I am fearful that things won't return to 'normal' for many years to come. The OECD workforce will decline in size for most of the rest of this century so, to begin with, GDP growth will be negatively affected by a shrinking workforce for decades to come. That will affect tax revenues, hence also the amount of money governments can afford to spend on the elderly.
As those retirees age, they become more expensive to look after. The NHS (the National Health Service in the UK) estimates that a man around 80 years of age is about seven times more expensive to them than a man in his 30s. As baby boomers retire in bigger and bigger numbers, and as those retirees age, governments could be forced to make further, and much more dramatic, cuts.
Having said that, there is a possible silver lining in this otherwise quite depressing story, and that is the potential for medical breakthroughs. One example of that would be cancer vaccines which could dramatically cut the death rate from various cancers.
There are already a few vaccines that help to prevent viruses that can cause certain types of cancer, and I would expect more vaccines to be approved in the years to come. A breakthrough in this area could have a massively positive impact on life expectancy.
On the other hand, should life expectancy continue to decline, believe it or not, there is also a silver lining on the horizon, and that has to do with the prevailing pension model in certain countries, which is known as the Defined Benefit (DB) model.
DB pension schemes will benefit dramatically from a further shortening of life expectancies. The UK pension industry is underfunded (or entirely unfunded) to the tune of £10-11 trillion – equal to 5.5 times UK GDP. If scheme members continue to die earlier than expected, the underfunding could fall dramatically, making it more likely that the DB pension model stands a decent chance of not suffering the total collapse that I would otherwise expect.


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Home > Broker > Denison Yachting > Denison reveals significant increase in yacht sales in Q1 2021
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Denison reveals significant increase in yacht sales in Q1 2021
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 10:40 AM
Fort Lauderdale, FL | June 2021 – The pandemic boosted luxury yacht sales. Denison reports that the first quarter of 2021 reveals a significant increase in yacht sales across international, United States, and Florida markets.
Full steam ahead with Denison Yachting
By the end of 2020, Denison experienced one of its best years in terms of yacht sales, charters booked, and marketing goals and is still riding that wave into 2021. In 2020, Denison sold 83 superyachts, with an annual growth of over 13%. In the first quarter of 2021, Denison sold over 40 superyachts, surpassing 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively.
"Our industry is still riding the great wave of 2020," commented Bob Denison. "Our first quarter numbers set new records for us organizationally across all revenue categories."
With a strong start to the year, what are some predicted challenges for the coming months?
"New construction opportunities and good deals on the brokerage market are very hard to come by. I expect this to be the great challenge our industry faces in 2021," said Bob Denison.
The yachting industry is gaining momentum around the world. Denison expects 2021 to be its best year in a decade and is excited to lead the way in global superyacht sales.
All Yachts sold worldwide in Q1 from 2008-2021
Global yacht sales haven't seen a first quarter this strong since 2018. Industry numbers that compare Q1 2020 to Q1 2021 show a huge leap in boats and yachts sold worldwide.
Data reveals that the U.S. makes up about one-third of global boat sales. In North America, 9,336 boats were sold in Q1 2021 compared to 6,526 boats sold in Q1 2020. Europe and Asia also experienced a strong first quarter with a significant increase in yacht sales compared to Q1 2020 and 2019.
Why is there a noticeable increase in yacht sales worldwide? Possibly, a "you always want what you can't have" situation — travel restrictions during the pandemic may have increased people's desire to get outside or vacation safely. Boats and yachts provide that escape for people around the world.
All Yachts sold in Q1 from 2008-2021, United States
Denison reports that an impressive Q1 in North America may be due to more new superyacht buyers. First-quarter regional boat sales in the U.S. from 2008-2021 reveal that the Southeast sells 3 times more yachts and boats than the Northeast or the mid-Atlantic regions. Almost 50% more than the Northeast and mid-Atlantic combined.
"The first quarter of 2021 has been strong due to continued demand from 2020," said Bob Denison. "Yachting's competitive industries, such as skiing and higher-end vacation experiences like cruises, are still being affected by extended lockdowns, which have created a special opportunity for our industry."
All Yachts sold in Q1 from 2008-2021, Florida
Florida is among the most desirable boating destinations. The third most populated state makes up about 25-30% of all U.S. boat sales. Florida experienced its best Q1 in over 10 years with a leap of 1,008 more boats sold in Q1 2021 than Q1 2020.
Why Florida? The sunshine state experienced less restrictive lockdown measures than the rest of the country. Snorkeling, diving, kayaking, fishing, boating, and yachting are popular (and safe) Florida activities — people flocked south to get outdoors and enjoy the water. For yacht brokers, it was business as usual in the sunshine state.
denison yachting
Gulf Craft marks 20 years of manufacturing in the Maldives
Porto Montenegro with Drydocks World Dubai in shipyard development
BYD: complex interior refit of 45m superyacht Lady Nora

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Curtis Grimes
Curtis Grimes Quotes and Sayings - Page 1
"It's pretty interesting how it all started out. After The Voice, I got introduced to some of my publishing people. We were out in Los Angeles and they said to give them a call when the show was all said and done and they'd get me into the writing world."
-- Curtis Grimes
#Writing #Voice #People
"The first time I go out to Nashville, ever (at this point I had only heard the rumors about what it's like) I had three writing sessions set up. The first two canceled on me. I was kind of pissed off at that point. So I just went back to my hotel room and started writing. And even though I've been to L.A. and experienced a lot of things, at the end of the day I just start to feel like I'm playing acoustically at the first bar I ever played at."
#Writing #Nashville #Two
"I had a lot of fun [on The Voice] and I learned a whole lot about reality TV, for one, and how they kind of use the artists as characters to make a hit TV show."
#Fun #Character #Artist
"The only problem I had on The Voice, was wishing that we, as artists, could have had a stronger opinion in our own song choices. At the end of the day, it's still a vocal competition show and you want to sing the song that showcases your voice the best."
#Song #Artist #Voice
"I got to meet a lot of cool people [on the Voice], and my favorite part about the experience was getting to sit around and do little jam sessions in the hotel. We were pretty much in lockdown at the hotel in downtown Los Angeles, and there wasn't much to do. It was interesting to be in a room with someone that was a rapper next to me, a country artist, then you have someone playing a song on the keyboard, and it was just really cool as just a random ensemble."
#Country #Song #Rapper
"It's been cool to see on the Voice all these up-and-coming artists from all over the country just develop and follow their careers as well, because we were all at a beginning point together. Now, after seeing the business side and behind-the-scenes stuff, it's hard for me to watch reality TV and play along like they want you to."
#Country #Artist #Reality
"I believe that being on that show [the Voice] and getting the exposure opened the door for me to get my name and music outside of Texas and the markets I was used to playing in. One of the bigger things that came about from being on the show was that I got on with Paradigm Booking Agency; one of my earlier problems was how hard it is to get booked if you don't have a good booking agency."
#Believe #Agency #Texas
"There is no way that I could pinpoint just one person. When I first started, I was listening to Randy Rogers quite a bit, and I was also pretty big into Josh Grider back then. I remember going to a lot of Kevin Fowler shows early, and Eli Young Band was another one of the groups I listened to a lot of when I was learning to write and play guitar."
#Writing #Guitar #Play
"Albom with Trent Willmon is the first project that I haven't had to scrap money together for. The is the first time I've used any outside songs at all; until now it's only been stuff that I've written. This is also the first album of mine that's had any co-writes on it, as well. It's a big step, coming off of anything we've ever done before."
#Song #Writing #Together
Granger Smith
Cody Johnson
Kevin Fowler
Wade Bowen


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Yahoo unveils latest Mail app version, revamps interface
By Back End News on September 25, 2019
Yahoo unveiled a new version of its Mail app with a more organized feature giving users control of their inboxes.
Yahoo Mail introduces an innovative experience that groups people's messages into "Views" such as Travel and Attachments, and controls email overload by introducing an easy, one-tap unsubscribe tool. Users can log in with other email accounts like Gmail and Outlook and still take advantage of the app's features, making Yahoo Mail a multi-purpose inbox, designed to help organize people's lives in the way they need.
"Fundamental to our humanity is how we connect and communicate," said Guru Gowrappan, CEO, Verizon Media. "Today, much of that communication happens on mobile. People rely on email to manage and organize their lives from navigating multiple accounts, business documents, travel itineraries, and shopping. It's more important than ever to do this efficiently and stress-free. We're really proud of the new Yahoo Mail and how it helps people take better control."
The app will start rolling out progressively on Android and iOS with new features, a modern interface, and navigation that allows for one-hand usage with even the biggest mobile screens. A few notable features and Views include:
Design refresh and deeper customization: A revamped interface that is built with today's taller mobile screens in mind allows for intuitive one-hand usage with the new navigation bar at the bottom of the screen. The layout is cleaner, colorful, easier to use, and customizable. Users can also personalize their push notifications to highlight which type of mail they wish to be alerted to (personal vs promotional) and tailor their inbox with custom color themes and sounds. There is also a drag and drop interface with fun animations.
Photos and files in one place: Now there's one View that allows easy access and navigation of all mail attachments, including important files, travel documents, event tickets, and photos. The information users need is always at hand.
Industry-leading management of email subscriptions: With a View for subscriptions, users can browse the emails they're subscribed to and unsubscribe from any newsletter with a single tap without leaving the app.
Categories: News, Software
Tagged as: Yahoo, Yahoo Mail App, Yahoo Mail App New Interface
Kaspersky gains leader status in Forrester evaluation of endpoint security suites
Chinese-speaking cyberespionage group APT10 slides into SEA


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Home Sports Ralf Rangnick wants Manchester United players to hold each other to account
Ralf Rangnick wants Manchester United players to hold each other to account
Ralf Rangnick has encouraged Manchester United's players to hold each other to account after Cristiano Ronaldo warned their poor season will continue if their mentality does not improve.
aving edged past Aston Villa 1-0 in the FA Cup third round on Monday, the sides will go toe-to-toe once again in the Premier League on Saturday evening.
United enter the weekend seventh in the standings after things unravelled following a positive summer in which Jadon Sancho, Raphael Varane and Ronaldo arrived.
Cristiano Ronaldo called on his Manchester United team-mates to improve their mentality (Martin Rickett/PA)
The latter this week said they need to start afresh in 2022 and warned "it will be a nightmare" if they do not as the 36-year-old questioned the mentality within the group.
Asked if Ronaldo can be a role model for the group, interim boss Rangnick said: "Yes, of course. It's not only Cristiano. We have Edinson (Cavani), we have Harry (Maguire), we have quite a few other older players – David de Gea in goal, Victor Lindelof, Bruno (Fernandes).
"We have enough experienced, older players who can not only be role models themselves in training, on the pitch and in games but also in all those conversations that happen in the locker room or when they are together in the hotel for away games or home games.
"This has to happen. In a team, in a united team, that happens automatically and I can only invite and challenge and tell all the players, also the older players, to do that on a regular basis because that helps even more so in a team that we have currently."
Marcus Rashford has shown the right attitude in training according to Ralf Rangnick (Martin Rickett/PA)
Rangnick sidestepped a question about the need for a mentality shift and does not doubt the effort in the dressing room, using Marcus Rashford as an example of a player putting in the work without things clicking.
"I was not a striker myself as a player, but as a striker it's all about playing well, scoring goals and getting assists," he said of the forward, who is without a goal since October. "And if that does not happen over a period of time it is not so easy
"As long as he's trying to give his very best and he did that in training, there were quite a few training sessions in the last couple of weeks where he trained on a really high level and that's why I always gave him the chance to play again.
"As long as he does that he will always be on my list to play and be in the starting XI.
"Of course it's about showing that on a regular basis and continuously playing on a high level and again for him, as one example, there is still space for improvement.
🔊 Our interim boss was asked about finding the balance between attack and defence…
Watch along in our app or website 📲👇#MUFC | #AVLMUN
— Manchester United (@ManUtd) January 14, 2022
"The same is true of other young players. We have so many top, talented players and, again, it brings me back to what Cristiano said.
"We have to work and develop as a team together and if it's necessary to speak in a very direct manner to the boys it helps a lot, even in the locker room.
"If Cristiano, for example, or any of the other players address that to the players directly on the pitch or in the locker room, they are more than welcome to do that.
"I will do that myself as a coach with my coaching staff in the pre- or post-match video we do with the team and on the pitch.
"But we can only develop individual players if we develop the performances of the team. This is the only way.
"This is about results, getting good results, which will raise the confidence level and then we can also develop the players individually. It doesn't work the other way around."
Ronaldo could be back along with captain Maguire on Saturday, but Rangnick dismissed a suggestion that the Portuguese may be more effective as United skipper on a permanent basis.
"Right now I don't see a reason to do that because Harry has been the captain so far," he said.
"As long as Harry is playing he will be the captain and if he's not playing then someone else will have to be the captain. This can change from game to game just depending on who is playing."
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बीबीसी हिंदी का डिजिटल बुलेटिन 'दिनभर', 25 अगस्त 2021 (BBC Hindi)


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home Entertainment Michael Costello Says Chrissy Teigen's Bullying Nearly Drove Him to Suicide
Michael Costello Says Chrissy Teigen's Bullying Nearly Drove Him to Suicide
Published Tue Jun 15 2021 By Heisenberg
Michael Costello details how he nearly killed himself due to the alleged bullying by Chrissy Teigen.
Michael Costello has been the latest celebrity to speak about the alleged bullying tweets from model Chrissy Teigen. And he says the bullying got to the point that he even contemplated suicide at times.
Michael Costello says Chrissy Teigen's bullying nearly drove him to suicide.
Source: Vulture
Designer Costello shared an Instagram post detailing how he still thinks of committing suicide due to the bullying by Chrissy Teigen. "I didn't want to do this but... I cannot be happy until I speak my mind," he wrote in the first slide of the post. "I need to heal and in order for me to do that, I must reveal what I've been going through. I wanted to kill myself and I still am traumatized, depressed, and have thoughts of suicide."
In the other slides, Costello went on about the reason he never shared this story publicly before. "I didn't share this with anyone because I was living in fear," he said. "In fear of losing some of my most profitable brand relationships; in fear of losing friends and allies; and in fear of being blocklisted even more by the power elites who run the industry."
Also See: Former 'American Idol' Contestant David Archuleta Comes Out as LGBTQIA+
According to Costello, Teigen posted a public comment in 2014 accusing him of being racist. Even though he denied it and told her that he was the victim of "vindictive cyber slander," she did not believe him. She told him that he would lose jobs, and he did on most occasions. This affected not only his employment but also his mental health.
"So many nights I stayed awake, wanting to kill myself," he wrote. "I didn't see the point of living. There was no way I can ever escape from being the target of the powerful elites in Hollywood, who actually do have [the] power to close doors with a single text. Not only was I the target if cyber defamation, I was also getting blacklisted in real life."
Stay tuned to Glamour Fame for more news updates of your favorite celebrities.


Tests were conducted on N.S. Savannah Model 4671 to obtain information pertinent to the design of a bow thruster. Results indicate the forces experienced by the ship, while laying along-side a pier, subjected to broadside currents of various velocities in shallow water and the predicted turning moments resulting from the combination of the propeller-rudder action in these waters.
This document is available for review at the Department of Commerce Library, Main Commerce Building, Washington, D.C., under reference number DTMB-1883.


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765 (DCCLXV) var ett vanligt år som började en tisdag i den julianska kalendern.

Händelser

Okänt datum
 Påveprivilegierna återställs i Beneventino och Toscana (och delvis i Spoleto).

Födda
Fastrada, drottning av Frankrike.
Imam Reza, shiaimam.

Avlidna
 4 december — Jafar Sadiq, muslimsk vetenskapsman (född 702)
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House painting is a big chore that homeowners have to go through every few years, unless they have no-paint siding or stucco. This can be such a time-consuming and labor intensive job that many homeowners choose to hire a painting contractor or company to do it. The other reason many people hire a contractor is that the house is to large for one person to paint on their own, and may require more equipment than the homeowner has available. The other house painting option is to do-it-yourself. This is a money-saving option, and often a good summer home-improvement project. Here is a comparison between the diy option and a painting contractor.
The biggest pro of do-it-yourself house painting is the money saved. The only costs would be the costs of paint, primer, paintbrushes and any other supplies. Another pro is that the colors the homeowner chooses are probably more likely to be exactly the right shade. Sometimes the color painted by the contractor may be not quite as the homeowner pictured it and the only option is to live with it rather than pay to have it done again. One drawback to diy is the time it will take. It could take the average homeowner with a full-time job up to a month to complete, depending on the time they have available. Another negative of this choice is that a homeowner may not be covered by their insurance if something were to happen. Most contractors carry their own insurance, so that is not a concern.
The main positive about choosing to hire a house-painting contractor rather than the diy option is timeliness. A contractor, especially if they have a crew, can finish a job in one or two days, compared to the three to four weeks it may take a homeowner. Also any reputable contractor will have their own insurance, which prevents any liability on the part of the homeowner. The biggest con of the contractor option is the cost. Not only will there be a charge for supplies, but also labor costs, which can be substantial. The homeowner needs to be sure to get three or four written estimates that include not only the price, but the estimated time the project will take.
Search for great deals on painting from local home improvement companies and contractors.


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Q: Eigenvalues and functions in quantum mechanics How do I determine if $\psi(x)$ is a eigenfunction of some operator and find the corresponding eigenvalues, where $\psi(x)$ is the wave function of free particle (potential = zero).

A:
How do I determine if $\psi(x)$ is a eigenfunction of some operator and find the corresponding eigenvalues

In general, if a wavefunction $\psi(x)$ is an eigenfunction of some operator $\hat A$, then the following equation must be true:
$$\hat A\psi(x)=a\psi(x)$$
Where $a$ is the eigenvalue of the corresponding eigenfunction.
Therefore, to determine if a wavefunction is an eigenfunction of the operator in question, all you have to do is operate on $\psi(x)$ by $\hat A$ and see if you get the function $\psi(x)$ multiplied by a constant back.

where $\psi(x)$ is the wave function of free particle

There is no single $\psi(x)$ of a free particle. You can have some initial wavefunction $\psi(x,t_0)$ that then evolves according to the free particle Hamiltonian $\hat H=\frac{\hat{P}^2}{2m}$, but there are many things $\psi(x,t_0)$ can be. This is kind of analogous to the classical physics question "what is x(t) for a free particle?", where we can say how $x(t)$ evolves due to its initial conditions ($x(t_0)$ and $v(t_0)$), but there is not a single $x(t)$ for a free particle.

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The Marketing Society has revealed its shortlist of nominees for the 2014 Marketing Leader of the Year, with the likes of British Airway's Abigail Comber and Waitrose' Rupert Thomas in the running for the accolade.
Over the coming week Marketing will take a closer look at each nominee, outlining why they have earned the chance to be crowned Marketing Leader of the Year.
Readers can cast their vote on The Marketing Society's dedicated page, marketingsocietyawards.com/vote until 5pm on Friday 23 May.