text:
\section{\label{sec:intro}Underreporting infections as a dynamic process in epidemiology}
When we try to make decisions to mitigate infectious disease burden, whether that's in allocating vaccines or in applying other interventions, the key piece of data informing our epidemiological perspective is often reported infections over time. In many situations, this timeseries can be stratified across social dimensions, like age, or location, or sex, and differences in trends are then used to make directional statements regarding risk (``cases are rising faster in men than in women", for example). These risk assessments ultimately become one part of a broader decision-making conversation.

It's almost always the case that a significant fraction of infections go undetected \cite{bedford2020cryptic}. This reality often forces epidemiologists to assume underreporting happens uniformly over time and strata, facilitating at least some \textit{relative} estimates of burden and risk \cite{goldstein2020temporal}. While this assumption might be good in certain circumstances, it typically goes untested, and its validity is challenged by other realities of healthcare, like inequities and disruptions in access across populations \cite{martinez2020sars,who2018}.

Estimating the degree of underreporting is a challenging problem. Surveillance data, despite being so central to our epidemiological understanding, usually comes from convenience samples and is rarely collected through formal, randomized surveys. Data quality is then, at best, estimated through independent serological surveys that measure population immunity, a point of comparison to the level of immunity implied by accumulated case reports and data on vaccination \cite{winter2018benefits}. This approach can give some assessment of underreporting across social dimensions, but since serosurveys can't be performed continuously, it has fundamental limitations when it comes to estimating changes over time.

Transmission modeling offers a complementary approach, but it comes with its own challenges. At a high level, transmission models consider interactions between a population's infectious and susceptible individuals over time \cite{anderson1992infectious}, offering a mathematical platform for interpreting surveillance data in the context of an underlying disease transmission process. In principle, this approach yields time-resolved estimates of the total infectious population which can be compared to case reports to dynamically assess underreporting. In practice, however, transmission models are under-constrained, and the same surveillance data can be explained by multiple, distinct combinations of reporting and transmission processes.

Resolving this identifiability issue, specifically in the context of endemic diseases like measles, is the focus of this paper. Broadly speaking, I find that the year-to-year changes in the surveillance system can be constrained by the age distribution of reported cases and then used to regularize the behavior of a high time-resolution transmission model. This approach yields a model with sufficient structure to distinguish reporting and transmission volatility while avoiding assumptions about the fast-time-scale variation in reporting. As a result, it offers a general procedure for dynamic assessment of the surveillance system based on reported cases over time.

To be concrete, I describe the method by way of example. In particular, I focus on the well-studied, 60 city United Kingdom (UK) dataset, which contains biweekly reports of measles cases from 1944 to 1966, covering the establishment of the National Health Service (NHS) in 1948 but before the introduction of the measles vaccine in 1967. The lack of vaccine, of course, limits direct applicability of the results to modern contexts, but it helps to simplify the discussion and focus on disease surveillance, which changed significantly with the nationalization of healthcare. As a result, this example proves to be an illustrative case study of the interactions between a variety of social forces as viewed through disease transmission.

\section{Measles in the UK from 1944 to 1966}
\begin{figure*}
\centering
\includegraphics[scale=0.56]{full_data_vis.png}
\caption{\label{fig:data}Data from the UK (1944-66). \textbf{(a)} Biweekly measles case reports from 60 cities, \textbf{(b)} live births per year in the same cities, \textbf{(c)} the age distribution of measles cases in 1950, and \textbf{(d)} the age-pyramid of the population in 1950 are the main inputs used to construct a transmission and reporting model.}
\end{figure*}

The key pieces of data for this study are visualized in Fig. \ref{fig:data}. In panel a, biweekly measles case reports were taken from Registrar General's \textit{Weekly Reports} by the Grenfell group and made open access. Similarly, Grenfell's group compiled yearly live-birth estimates, shown in panel b, from the Registrar General's \textit{Annual Reports} \cite{finkenstadt2000time}. For the purposes of this paper, I added to this dataset Fine and Clarkson's distribution of the ages of measles cases circa 1950 (Fig. \ref{fig:data}c) \cite{fine1982measles2} and an estimate of the population pyramid for the same year (Fig. \ref{fig:data}d) \cite{poppyramid}.

In many ways, this is \textit{the classic} measles dataset, and a lot of its features are very well understood. For example, transmission modeling has established a dynamic connection between the baby-boom after World War 2 (1946-48) and the shift from biannual to annual measles outbreaks from 1947 to 1953 \cite{grenfell2002dynamics}. Similar studies have also established a connection between seasonal variation in transmission rates and the holiday calendar for UK schools \cite{finkenstadt2000time,fine1982measles1}. Disaggregating the data across the 60 cities has facilitated understanding of the population size needed to maintain endemic transmission \cite{keeling1997disease} and the wave-behavior associated with measles' diffusion from city-to-city \cite{grenfell2001travelling}. In short, many researchers have brought a variety of perspectives to this data, teaching us a lot about measles epidemiology in the process.

That said, to my knowledge, no study has focused on the time-variation in reporting rates associated with this data.\footnote{Researchers have made estimates, for example in Ref. \onlinecite{finkenstadt2000time}. But in that paper, the estimates are unpublished and not discussed.} This is surprising since, with the establishment of the NHS in July 1948, the population's relationship to healthcare changed dramatically \cite{nhshistory}. Given the level of societal detail apparently reflected in measles' transmission dynamics, it's reasonable to expect that so profound a change should be observable as well.

\section{Modeling measles dynamics\label{sec:problem}}

This thought can be framed with more mathematical precision by defining a discrete stochastic process model of measles transmission and reporting. Along the lines of classic disease models \cite{anderson1992infectious,finkenstadt2000time}, and mindful that measles is transmitted person-to-person, the time from exposure to rash onset is roughly 14 days, and those that survive the disease are immune for life, I assume
\begin{align}
    I_t &= \beta_{t-1}S_{t-1}I_{t-1}^{\alpha}\varepsilon_{t-1},\label{eq:transmission}\\
    S_t &= S_{t-1}+B_{t-1}-I_{t},\label{eq:susceptibles}\\
    C_t &\sim \text{Binomial}\left\{I_t,r_t\right\} \label{eq:reporting}
\end{align}
where, at time $t$ in 2 week time steps, $S_t$ is the population susceptible to measles, $I_t$ is the infectious population, $B_t$ are births into the population (e.g., Fig. \ref{fig:data}b, interpolated to the biweekly time scale), and $C_t$ are reported measles cases (e.g., Fig. \ref{fig:data}a).

New infections are generated through a transmission process where $\beta_t$ is the average transmission rate and $\varepsilon_t$ models multiplicative transmission volatility (i.e., $\text{E}[\ln\varepsilon_t]=0, \text{V}[\ln\varepsilon_t]=\sigma^2_t$). These quantities, taken together, select a random fraction of possible susceptible-infectious pairs to contribute to onward transmission and replace the previous infectious generation. Notice, however, that $I_{t}$ can be discounted by $\alpha\leq1$ in the enumeration of pairs, modeling the idea that as $I_t$ grows, the likelihood of infection among relatively isolated children, who are incapable of onward transmission, like the very young, increases.

The reporting process, $r_t$, represents the probability that infections are reported as cases and is in principle free to vary such that $0\leq r_t \leq 1$. Evaluating a measles surveillance system in the context of this model is therefore a statistical inference problem where the goal is to estimate unknowns $r_t$, $\beta_t$, $\varepsilon_t$, $\alpha$, and $S_0$ given $C_t$ and $B_t$.

As mentioned, this inference problem is poorly-posed in general. To illustrate the issue, consider solving the expected value of Eq. \ref{eq:reporting} for $I_t$ and inserting the result into Eq. \ref{eq:transmission} to write
\begin{align*}
    \frac{C_t}{C_{t-1}} = \left(\frac{r_t}{r_{t-1}}\right)\beta_{t-1}S_{t-1}\varepsilon_{t-1},
\end{align*}
where I've set $\alpha=1$ for clarity. If, for example, $C_t$ increases relative to $C_{t-1}$ so that $C_t/C_{t-1} > 1$, that variation can either be explained by sufficient increase in $r_t$ or by a sufficiently high reproductive number, $\beta_{t-1}S_{t-1}\varepsilon_{t-1}$. In other words, in the context of an imperfectly observed epidemiology, an increase in reported cases can either be a result of more people seeking care by chance or an unfortunately social infectious generation or both. Without additional model structure and information, we cannot tell these effects apart.

\section{Constraining systemic changes\label{sec:prior_construction}}

Some qualitative considerations can help motivate a way forward. In general, we expect $r_t$ to have 2 distinct timescales: A fast timescale, comparable to the 14 day transmission scale, associated with random fluctuations in the health-seeking behavior of $I_t$, and a much slower timescale associated with changes in the health system like the creation of new facilities. While it's difficult to say in advance how ``slow" should be defined, we also expect $\beta_t$ to vary seasonally with environmental conditions, and as a result, at any sub-annual timescale, we should anticipate seeing both transmission and reporting variation overlaid. The year-to-year timescale is perhaps the highest resolution where we can reasonably expect systemic reporting variation to be isolated.

The age-at-infection distribution in Fig. \ref{fig:data}c characterizes the UK's measles transmission at the annual scale. The two peaked structure is consistent with school-driven transmission, the larger peak corresponding to infection at school entry at roughly 5 years old and the smaller peak likely including the 5 year-olds' younger siblings at home. While the distribution is based on reported cases in 1950, this mechanistic connection to the school system gives some confidence that it can be taken as representative of the infectious population as a whole for the entire 23 year period of interest.\footnote{Arguably, this type of long-term stability in the age-distribution is the quantitative definition of endemic. In any case, I only have the one age distribution from 1950, and so I make the best of it.}

\begin{figure*}
\centering
\includegraphics[scale=0.54]{uk_coarse_inference.png}
\caption{\label{fig:slowmodel}Slow, systemic changes in surveillance. (Top) Age-at-infection information yields a model (black, 95$\%$ interval in grey) of total burden that can be compared to aggregated cases (blue) to estimate $\tilde{r}_t$. (Bottom) Visualizing the resulting estimate (purple, $50\%$ interval light, $95\%$ interval lightest) exposes an overall downward trend from 1944 to 1966.}
\end{figure*}

More formally, I'll assume the distribution in Fig. \ref{fig:data}c, $\pi(a)$, is the probability of rash onset at age $a$, or equivalently, the probability of infection, $i(t|s)$, during year $t=a+s$ given birth year $s$. Marking annually aggregated quantities with a tilde, I can compute
\begin{align}
    E[\tilde{I}_t^B] &= \sum_{s=0}^{T-1} i(t|s)\tilde{B}_s=\sum_{s=0}^{T-1}\pi(t-s)\tilde{B}_s,\label{eq:newborn_inf}
\end{align}
where $\tilde{I}_t^B$ are infections in children born during the $T=23$ years of interest. This interpretation of the age-at-infection distribution, that it tells us how birth-cohorts are expected to appear as infections over time, is the key idea of this paper. It inspires a strategy to compute total expected burden, $\text{E}[\tilde{I}_t]$, as a point of comparison to $\tilde{C}_t$.

Eq. \ref{eq:newborn_inf} accounts for one of two possible sources of infections in our model. If susceptible individuals were not born in the years 0 to $T-1$, they must have been part of $S_0$, the initial susceptible population. In other words, calculating expected infections in $S_0$, $E[\tilde{I}_t^{0}]$, would complete the estimate of total burden over time.

The age-at-infection distribution offers valuable perspective again. If we approximate the transmission process as a simple random sample of the susceptible population, sometimes called a ``well-mixed" assumption, and we further assume that $\pi(a)$ is representative of years before year 0, then the initially susceptible population has age distribution $p(a|\in S_0) =\pi(a)$ as well.

Operating under this approximation, inspired by the logic of Eq. \ref{eq:newborn_inf}, $S_0$ can be thought of as a mixture of birth-cohorts born in years $s<0$. This implies that
\begin{align*}
    \text{E}[\tilde{I}_t^0] &= S_0 \sum_{s<0} i(t|s)p(-s|\in S_0)\\
    &= S_0\sum_{a>0}\pi(t+a)\pi(a) \equiv S_0\tau(t),
\end{align*}
where $\tau(t)$ is the convolution of $S_0$'s age-distribution with the age-at-infection distribution --- the discrete self-convolution of $\pi(a)$ under our approximations. Moreover, the number $S_0$ can be constrained by the survival function, $\Pi(a) = 1 - \sum \pi(a')$, estimating the probability of remaining susceptible at age $a$. Combined with the age pyramid, $n(a)$, in Fig. \ref{fig:data}d, this means that we expect $S_0$ to be mostly individuals less than 5 years old, roughly $7\%$ of the total population.

Taken together then, expected yearly burden, $E[\tilde{I}_t] = E[\tilde{I}_t^B + \tilde{I}_t^0]$, can be estimated entirely from yearly births, the age-at-infection distribution, and the age-pyramid. The annualized reporting rate then satisfies
\begin{align}
    \tilde{C}_t = \tilde{r}_t\left(\text{E}[S_0]\tau(t) + \sum_{s=0}^{T-1} \pi(t-s)\tilde{B}_s\right) + \tilde{w}_t,\label{eq:slowmodel}
\end{align}
with additive noise $\tilde{w}_t$. We can enforce the constraint $0 \leq \tilde{r}_t \leq 1$ by modeling $\tilde{r}_t = f(\tilde{\theta}_t)$ where $f(\cdot)$ is the logistic function and $\tilde{\theta}_t$ is a Gaussian process (see Appendix A). Then, modeling the variance in $\tilde{w}_t$ as a constant fully specifies a non-linear least squares problem that can be solved for $\tilde{\theta}_t$ to estimate $\tilde{r}_t$.

Fig. \ref{fig:slowmodel} visualizes the results of this approach applied to the data from the UK. In the top panel, $\tilde{r}_t\text{E}[\tilde{I}_t]$ (black) follows the trend in $\tilde{C}_t$ (blue) with uncertainty ($95\%$ interval in grey) driven largely by the biannual periodicity in outbreaks starting in 1954. Eq. \ref{eq:slowmodel} is clearly an incomplete epidemiological model, lacking the transmission process required to explain outbreaks, and somewhat reassuringly, it cannot capture key features of the data with reporting variation alone.

But still, this is progress. The corresponding distribution for $\tilde{r}_t$ is visualized in the lower panel, with the $50\%$ and $95\%$ intervals in progressively lighter tints. The estimate is consistent with a constant-reporting-rate model (black) \cite{finkenstadt2000time}, but captures an overall falling trend from 1944 to 1966. More practically, the range of probable $\tilde{r}_t$ values, which was initially only loosely constrained by the rules of probability, is dramatically reduced through implications of the age-at-infection distribution.

\section{Balancing slow and fast dynamics\label{sec:inference}}
Keeping these results in mind, we can return to the more general inference problem outlined in Section \ref{sec:problem}. In somewhat abstract terms, completely defining Eqs. \ref{eq:transmission} to \ref{eq:reporting} requires us to calculate the posterior probability distribution $p(\beta_t,\varepsilon_t,\alpha,r_t,S_0|\mathbf{D})$, where $\mathbf{D}$ is the complete dataset $\{C_t,B_t,\tilde{C}_t,\tilde{B}_t,\pi(a),n(a)\}$, making clear the assumed separation of time scales. This formal statement of the problem is useful because it can be organized hierarchically to inspire an approachable inference algorithm. Specifically, we can write
\begin{align}
\begin{split}
    p(\beta_t,\varepsilon_t,\alpha&,r_t,S_0|\mathbf{D})=\\
    &p(S_0,r_t|\mathbf{D})\times p(\beta_t,\varepsilon_t,\alpha|\mathbf{D},S_0,r_t),\label{eq:posterior}
\end{split}
\end{align}
choosing this (exact but non-unique) separation to draw distinction between the parameters explicitly connected to the annual-scale ($S_0$, $r_t$) and the parameters responsible for fast dynamics $(\beta_t,\varepsilon_t,\alpha)$. As we'll see, the two terms on the right-hand-side lend themselves to approximation more readily than the distribution as a whole.

The first term can be used as a vehicle for the survival analysis and annual-scale regression underlying the results in Fig. \ref{fig:slowmodel}. Towards that end, we can approximate
\begin{align*}
   p(S_0,r_t|\mathbf{D})&\approx p\left(S_0|\pi(a),n(a)\right)p(r_t|\pi(a),\tilde{C}_t,\tilde{B}_t,S_0)\\
   &\approx\mathcal{N}\left(S_0|\text{E}[S_0],\text{V}[S_0]\right)\mathcal{N}\left(r_t|\text{E}[\tilde{r}_t],\text{V}[\tilde{r}_t]\right).
\end{align*}
Here, the first line is the conditional independence assumption that $S_0$ and $r_t$, in the absence of a transmission process, are determined by the annual-scale subset of $\mathbf{D}$. Then, using $\mathcal{N}$ to represent the normal distribution, Gaussian approximations to these two terms are exactly what was estimated in the previous section if we linearly interpolate $\text{E}[\tilde{r}_t]$ and $\text{V}[\tilde{r}_t]$ to the 2 week timescale.

For the final term in Eq. \ref{eq:posterior}, it's helpful to return to the relationships in the model. Notice first that Eq. \ref{eq:susceptibles} can be solved for $S_t$ to give
\begin{align*}
    S_t = S_0 + \sum_{i=0}^{t-1}(B_i - I_{i+1}),
\end{align*}
the intuitive result that the susceptible population is the total balance of newborns and exposures every time step. Furthermore, taking the log of Eq. \ref{eq:transmission} implies
\begin{align}
   \ln I_t - \ln S_{t-1} = \alpha\ln I_{t-1} + \ln\beta_{t-1} + \ln\varepsilon_{t-1}.\label{eq:transmission_regr}
\end{align}
And finally, through properties of the binomial distribution (see Appendix B), Eq. \ref{eq:reporting} implies that $E[I_t|C_t,r_t] =[(C_t +1)/r_t]-1$. Thus, conditional on $r_t$ and $S_0$, Eq. \ref{eq:transmission_regr} is very nearly a well-defined linear regression for $\alpha$, $\beta_t$, and $\varepsilon_t$, but with $26T$ equations and up to $(52T-1)$ unknowns --- too many for a unique solution.

We can use measles' transmission seasonality as an epidemiologically reasonable way to reduce dimensionality. Along those lines, I'll assume that $\beta_t$ is a periodic Gaussian process with 1 year (26 time step) periodicity (see Appendix A for details). Furthermore, I'll assume that $\ln\varepsilon_t$ has constant variance, $\sigma^2_{\varepsilon}$. Those assumptions dramatically reduce the number of unknowns, to 28 in total, making Eq. \ref{eq:transmission_regr} a solvable linear regression.

Returning to Eq. \ref{eq:posterior}, the approximations just discussed give us a route to evaluate the entire right-hand-side, and as a result, with enough patience, we could calculate whatever properties of that distribution that we might be interested in. That said, since the inference problem remains high dimensional ($26T+29$ unknowns), it's reasonable to look for a more digestible distribution. A standard approach is to construct a Gaussian approximation at the distribution's mode \cite{sivia2006data}.

That procedure is facilitated by the negative log posterior, $\mathcal{L}$, which can be minimized to find the mode and twice-differentiated at the minimum to estimate a covariance matrix. For our purposes, up to a constant,
\begin{align}
\begin{split}
    \mathcal{L}(\beta_t,\varepsilon_t,\alpha&,r_t,S_0) = \frac{26T-1}{2}\ln\hat{\sigma}_{\varepsilon}^2\\
    &+\frac{(S_0-\text{E}[S_0])^2}{2\text{V}[S_0]}+\sum_t \frac{(r_t-\text{E}[\tilde{r}_t])^2}{2\text{V}[\tilde{r}_t]}\label{eq:neglogl}
\end{split}
\end{align}
where $\hat{\sigma}_{\varepsilon}$ is the maximum-likelihood estimate of $\sigma_{\varepsilon}$ associated with the least-squares solution to Eq. \ref{eq:transmission_regr}. This equation nicely illustrates the balance we've achieved, with the first term corresponding to the model's ability to capture the fast dynamics and the next two terms enforcing consistency with the slow time scale.

Eq. \ref{eq:neglogl} also encapsulates a well-defined statistical inference algorithm. We first minimize $\mathcal{L}$ to construct a Gaussian approximation of Eq. \ref{eq:posterior}, and then properties of Gaussians can be leveraged to calculate marginal distributions or draw sample parameter sets consistent with the data.\footnote{Some practical details: I minimize $\mathcal{L}$ using the \texttt{scipy}'s implementation of the Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno algorithm, with the gradient of $\mathcal{L}$ computed exactly instead of with the default finite-differences. Moreover, noting that $S_0$ being orders of magnitude larger than $r_t$ can cause stability problems, I solve instead for $\ln S_0$, modifying the associated term in Eq. \ref{eq:neglogl}. Finally, for efficiency reasons, I first solve the problem with $\alpha=1$ to find $S_0$ and $r_t$ and then solve Eq. \ref{eq:transmission_regr} more generally after the fact. In practice, this means only solving Eq. \ref{eq:transmission_regr} twice, instead of once per evaluation of $\mathcal{L}$.} Finally, for any candidate set of parameters, Eqs. \ref{eq:transmission} to \ref{eq:reporting} allow us to produce time series of $I_t$ and $S_t$ and then estimate quantities of epidemiological interest.

\begin{figure*}
\centering
\includegraphics[scale=0.63]{strong_prior.png}
\caption{\label{fig:fit}Modeling measles transmission and surveillance dynamics. Forcing consistency with reported cases, both in terms of the biweekly dynamics (black dots) and age-distribution-based results in Fig. \ref{fig:slowmodel} (dashed grey), yields a model (colors, 95$\%$ interval shaded) that can distinguish variation in population prevalence (peach) and susceptibility (blue) from the probability infections are reported (yellow).}
\end{figure*}

I apply this algorithm to the UK example in Fig. \ref{fig:fit}, using 10,000 sample trajectories drawn from the fitted model to quantify overall uncertainty. In the top panel, the model (green) follows $C_t$ (black dots) closely, now able to explain outbreaks with a seasonal measles transmission process. Moreover, the uncertainty estimates have good empirical performance, with the $50\%$ interval across trajectories capturing $53\%$ of the data and the $95\%$ interval capturing $96\%$ of the data.

We can also see good consistency with the results in Fig. \ref{fig:slowmodel}. In particular, the initial susceptible population (blue) is roughly $7\%$ of the total population, as expected based on the survival function. Even more clearly, in Fig. \ref{fig:fit}'s final panel, $r_t$ exhibits 2 distinct timescales, with step-to-step volatility associated with people's behavior and a year-to-year trend consistent with $\tilde{r}_t$ (overlaid in grey). Thus, speaking broadly, Fig. \ref{fig:fit} demonstrates that we've created a measles transmission model consistent with both the dynamics and the age distribution of reported cases, and in doing so, we've uncovered the variation in the surveillance system.

\section{Social forces as viewed through transmission}

Before discussing the $r_t$ estimates, it's worth establishing Fig. \ref{fig:fit}'s consistency with past studies. Two key results to that effect are visualized in Fig. \ref{fig:results}.

\begin{figure*}
\centering
\includegraphics[scale=0.58]{inferences.png}
\caption{\label{fig:results}Inferences from the fitted model. \textbf{(a)} The estimated seasonality profile (blue, 95$\%$ interval shaded) is correlated with the UK's school holiday schedule (grey), in good agreement with Ref. \onlinecite{finkenstadt2000time}. \textbf{(b)} Equilibrium analysis of trajectories at specific times of year (biweek 10 in orange, 15 in purple) can be used to construct a phase plane illustrating the deterministic, critical phenomena associated with the UK's outbreak periodicity. \textbf{(c)} Estimated $r_t$ (red) as healthcare is reformed, with time contextualized by the model's mean $I_t$ estimate (grey).}
\end{figure*}

In Fig. \ref{fig:results}a, I've plotted the model's estimate of the reproductive number (blue), which is proportional to $\beta_t$, in comparison with Ref. \onlinecite{finkenstadt2000time}'s point estimate (black) and the UK school holiday calendar (grey). The correlation with the school calendar is visually apparent, with closures suppressing transmission rates and the return from holidays associated with transient increases. Our estimate is noticeably smoother than Ref. \onlinecite{finkenstadt2000time}'s: This is because of the periodic Gaussian process mentioned in the previous section, modeling the fact that biweekly intervals occur at slightly different times of year every year. But outside of that minor difference, our estimates clearly recapitulate this classic result.

A second important result is the relationship between the post World War 2 baby boom (1946-48, see Fig. \ref{fig:data}b) and the transition from biannual to annual outbreaks. Following the approaches in Refs. \onlinecite{finkenstadt2000time} and \onlinecite{grenfell2002dynamics}, we can verify that this phenomena is a deterministic, dynamical feature of the fitted model by estimating the equilibrium periodicity of $I_t$ as a function of $S_t$ in expectation.

More concretely, I can compute long time, 200 year trajectories of the model mean as a function of a constant birth rate, using the first century to reach equilibrium and the second century to sample it. Then, by plotting realized ($S_t$, $I_t$) pairs at specific times of year, I can construct phase portraits with geometric features that give insight into the model's dynamical properties.

The results of this procedure are visualized in Fig. \ref{fig:results}b. Choosing two representative times of year (biweek 10, in orange, in keeping with Ref. \onlinecite{finkenstadt2000time}'s choice, and biweek 15, in purple, because it's the peak of the low season), ($S_t$, $I_t$) pairs fall into 2 distinct phases. At low and high susceptibility, $I_t$ takes a single value at the same time every year, indicating that all years are the same and the equilibrium has annual periodicity. Meanwhile, in the vicinity of $8\%$ susceptibility, $I_t$ falls on one of two branches corresponding to low and high years -- that is, biannual periodicity.

Returning to the timeseries of Fig. \ref{fig:fit}, we see that $8\%$ susceptibility is indeed a critical, historically relevant threshold. In the post World War 2 years, increased birth rates pushed susceptibility to roughly $9\%$ and $I_t$ exhibits annual periodicity. At other times from 1944 to 1966, susceptibility hovered near $8\%$, and outbreaks occurred every other year. Fig. \ref{fig:results}b suggests that this transition was not due to chance, that is volatility in $\varepsilon_t$. Instead, it is a deterministic, in some sense physical, feature of the UK's measles epidemiology, reproducing the insight first explored in Ref. \onlinecite{finkenstadt2000time}.

The model's incorporation of the age-at-infection distribution adds some texture to these famous results. As mentioned, the distribution's two-peaked structure (Fig. \ref{fig:data}c) also supports the school system's role in transmission, suggesting that the correlation in Fig. \ref{fig:results}a can be interpreted causally. Meanwhile, that the 1946 to 1948 baby-boom raises susceptibility through 1952, that is for roughly 5 years, is what we might have expected based on the survival function, which vanishes after roughly 5 years. These elements of our inferences suggest that, even without directly modeling ageing, we've captured the dynamic implications of the age distribution.

Now, with some confidence in the corresponding transmission process, we can return to $r_t$. Fig. \ref{fig:results}c visualizes the estimate (red) in the lead up and aftermath of the NHS's establishment with the model's mean $I_t$ estimate (grey) to contextualize the time of year. It's striking that 1948 emerges naturally as a critical year in measles surveillance. Major outbreaks in 1945 and 1947 are accompanied by suppression in $r_t$, but this feature vanishes after 1948, and looking to Fig. \ref{fig:fit}, it does not return for the remaining 19 years.

A plausible hypothesis explaining the full 23 year estimate is that, up to 1947, large-scale outbreaks placed significant burden on populations without access to healthcare. Then, after 1948, universal healthcare resolved this problem; however, the steady year-to-year $r_t$ decrease from 1948 onward suggests that increased demand impacted quality overall. Indeed, in the early 1970's, just after the model period, the NHS received it's first round of reforms in response to surprising demand \cite{nhshistory}.

By virtue of being difficult to estimate, estimates of $r_t$ are difficult to validate. That said, the hypothesis above motivates a coarse prediction.

If we assume that measles reporting is a product of two decisions, that an individual is sick enough to seek care and that they have access to care given their need, and we assign probabilities $p_N$ and $p_{A|N}$ to those two events, then post-1948, to a good approximation, $p_{A|N} = 1$. Meanwhile, we can further assume that $p_N$ is the same pre- and post-1948, since we expect it to be dominated by biological features of measles infections. As a result, we should expect the ratio of pre- and post-1948 $r_t$ estimates to measure $p_{A|N}$ before healthcare reform.

And so, with roughly $60\%$ reporting after the NHS's establishment and roughly $40\%$ at peak suppression in 1947, we estimate that roughly $30\%$ of the UK's population lacked access to healthcare before reform. Looking to other historical records, this estimate is in good agreement with shortages of tuberculosis beds in 1947 (32,600 available with roughly 46,000 needed) \cite{nhshistory}, and survey data taken at that time \cite{nuffield1946hospital} might give additional validation -- I'm currently looking into it.

\section{Some final thoughts}

Zooming out to conclude: It's remarkable how disease transmission reflects society's layers with such clarity, from the school system to birth rates and finally to healthcare access. We've certainly seen this recently as well \cite{bedford2020cryptic}, sometimes harshly \cite{martinez2020sars}. But for our goals in measles control today, we should aspire to the level of detail with which we understand transmission and surveillance in the pre-vaccine-era UK.

Towards that end, this paper's approach can be extended to incorporate vaccination. At a high level, the annual burden estimates of Sec. \ref{sec:prior_construction} need to be adjusted for fractions of birth cohorts and of the initial susceptible population that are immunized before infection. Those adjustments can be informed by survey data on vaccination coverage, accounting for the administration age and, via the survival function, the probability of remaining susceptible at that age. Subtracting these estimates from $\text{E}[\tilde{I}_t]$ in Eq. \ref{eq:slowmodel} then allows $\tilde{r}_t$ to be constrained in essentially the same way. Inference at the fast timescale then proceeds as in Sec. \ref{sec:inference}, with Eq. \ref{eq:susceptibles} modified to account for immunization \cite{thakkar2019decreasing}.

More generally, this paper has emphasized the need to understand not only the drivers of disease transmission but also the components of disease surveillance, thinking of both as dynamic, epidemiological processes. I hope retrospective, quantitative inference is a step towards understanding how surveillance systems can be improved.

\section*{Acknowledgements}
This work was done in conversation with many of my colleagues. I'd like to thank Safi Karmy-Jones for motivating the historical exploration, Edward Wenger for his intuition on the age-distribution's relationship to schools, and Mike Famulare for his sense of direction on the survival analysis. Edward, as well as Kevin McCarthy and Arie Voorman, also gave very useful feedback on this paper's first draft.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaArXiv


text:
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EncounterProcessor
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<LINK REL ="stylesheet" TYPE="text/css" HREF="../../../../../stylesheet.css" TITLE="Style">

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org.cidrz.webapp.dynasite.logic

Class EncounterProcessor

java.lang.Object
  org.cidrz.webapp.dynasite.logic.EncounterProcessor

public class EncounterProcessor
extends java.lang.Object

Rules processor for Encounters.

Constructor Summary

EncounterProcessor()

Method Summary

static void
checkRule(java.sql.Connection conn,
          Form formDef,
          PageItem pageItem,
          java.lang.Object value,
          java.lang.String user,
          BaseEncounter encounter)

          This is used for dwr updates

static void
evaluateValue(java.lang.String fieldName,
              java.lang.Object o,
              java.util.List ruleList,
              PageItem pi,
              EncounterData encounter)

static EncounterConfirmation
getConfirmation(java.sql.Connection conn,
                Form formDef,
                BaseEncounter encounter,
                java.lang.String userName)

Methods inherited from class java.lang.Object

clone, equals, finalize, getClass, hashCode, notify, notifyAll, toString, wait, wait, wait

Constructor Detail

EncounterProcessor

public EncounterProcessor()

Method Detail

getConfirmation

public static EncounterConfirmation getConfirmation(java.sql.Connection conn,
                                                    Form formDef,
                                                    BaseEncounter encounter,
                                                    java.lang.String userName)

checkRule

public static void checkRule(java.sql.Connection conn,
                             Form formDef,
                             PageItem pageItem,
                             java.lang.Object value,
                             java.lang.String user,
                             BaseEncounter encounter)

This is used for dwr updates

Parameters:
conn -
formDef -
pageItem -
value -
user -
encounter -

evaluateValue

public static void evaluateValue(java.lang.String fieldName,
                                 java.lang.Object o,
                                 java.util.List ruleList,
                                 PageItem pi,
                                 EncounterData encounter)
                          throws org.cidrz.webapp.dynasite.rules.OutcomeException

Throws:

org.cidrz.webapp.dynasite.rules.OutcomeException

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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Die Liste der Wappen in der Provinz Latina beinhaltet alle in der Wikipedia gelisteten Wappen der Orte in der Provinz Latina in der Region Latium in Italien. In dieser Liste werden die Wappen mit dem Gemeindelink angezeigt.

Wappen der Provinz Latina

Wappen der Gemeinden der Provinz Latina

Siehe auch

 Liste der Wappen im Latium
 Liste der Wappen in Italien

Einzelnachweise

Latina
!Latina
!

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Q: Why choose electrolysis over other methods?
A: It is the only proven method of permanent hair removal. It gives the skin a clean, smooth surface.
Laser hair removal won't work on blonde or white hair, olive or dark skin. Additionally, the long term health effects have not been evaluated.
Waxing, threading and tweezing are only temporary. Additionally, these methods often result in ingrown hairs and discoloration. These methods can require a lifetime of maintenance. Many can appear inexpensive but cost more due to long term use and are found to be inconvenient.
A: It varies with each client. Treatments usually range from 15 minutes to an hour. There are a number of factors that play into the treatment plan. Each individual varies in their hair growth cycles due to hormone output, genes, stress levels, current medications, etc. We will sit down together and plan the treatments necessary for you to achieve your desired results.
A: This often depends on the individual and the hair removal area. Some people will experience mild discomfort. However, I do use a numbing cream for those clients who experience discomfort.
Q: Can unwanted hair be removed from any part of the body?
A: Absolutely! I use disposable needles/probes and all of my forceps (tweezers) are sterilized. You have nothing to worry about.
Q: What is electrolysis? How does it work?
we safely apply a small amount of electricity to the base of the hair follicle.
destroy the hair growth cells.
hair follicle and destroy the growth cells that cause hair growth.
1. Thermolysis: This process uses short waves of heat (energy).
This method creates heat that is used to destroy the growth cells in the hair follicle.
are mulitple needles being utilized together.
the chemical reaction in the follicle destroying the hair root.


SANAA, Yemen (AP) — Yemen's Shiite rebels at war with a Saudi-led coalition said they fired a ballistic missile Friday targeting a military camp in the southwestern Saudi city of Najran, but the kingdom said its air defenses intercepted the projectile.
The rebel announcement, carried by the rebel-run Al-Masirah TV, said it had conducted a "successful" firing of a short-range ballistic missile and that it hit its target in Saudi Arabia with "high accuracy." The rebel officials, cited by Al-Masirah, did not provide more details on the missile.
The Saudi-led coalition, meanwhile, said in a statement carried by the kingdom's official news agency SPA that it had "intercepted and destroyed" the missile.
It added that there was "minor damage" to the private property of a Saudi citizen due to missile parts that dispersed once the missile was intercepted but that there were no deaths.
The rebels later said they fired another missile targeting Saudi-backed forces along Yemen's western coast.
The Shiite rebels, known as Houthis, have previously fired missiles targeting the Saudi mainland, including the capital, Riyadh, the city's international airport and a royal palace — all of which were intercepted by Saudi forces.
The coalition backs Yemen's internationally recognized government and has been at war with the Iran-backed Houthis since March 2015. The U.S.-backed coalition has repeatedly accused Saudi rival Iran of arming the rebels.
In December, the United States said it has "undeniable" evidence that Tehran is violating international law. U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley showed off missile parts to cameras at a military base near Washington, saying the projectile was supplied by Iran and launched by Yemen's Houthis at the airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh.
Iran dismissed it as a "fake and fabricated" claim. Tehran denies arming Yemen's rebels in the war with Saudi Arabia.
The nearly three-year stalemated war in Yemen has killed more than 10,000 people, displaced 3 million, damaged critical infrastructure, fuelled a cholera outbreak and pushed the Arab world's poorest country to the brink of famine.


In late 2013, Bill Lohse, Bob Wu and I locked ourselves away to focus on how we could do early stage investing in a new and powerful way. We knew that the moment-of-inception and the Series A were the two best places for us to produce return for investors. But how could we do it in a way that would maximize the predictability and scale of our success?
We determined that the key issue at the earliest stage is finding the best companies. Sounds simple, but with tens of thousands of new startups worldwide, it is a daunting task in practice. Based on work we had done in our publishing days, testing every single product in the PC revolution, we devised a novel approach: Science.
We broke that huge market down into tight focus areas. We would choose 4-5 of those each year (now every six months) and carpet bomb them with research, analytics and outreach so we know every company in those frames, touching a significant percentage of them, and building up huge context to drive a set of early stage investments inside the selected frames. The result, we felt, would be a set of companies highly more probable to make it to their A rounds than others.
To this intense moment-of-inception approach, we added the concept of always taking pro-rata rights in those early investments. This addresses the primary challenge at the Series A: getting into the best rounds. By the A everyone knows what companies are performing well; finding them isn't the issue. Access is. With our pro rata rights we are guaranteed access to the A rounds of our best companies.
These ideas drove our unique two-fund structure (Moment-of-Inception funds and A Round funds) and our uniquely scientific approach to early stage investment. We operate like an index fund of the best brand new companies that leads to a managed fund of the development-stage winners.
Last week we were delighted to see that Pitchbook named Social Starts the Top Investor under $100M since 2013.
Looks like the plan is coming together nicely.


text:
Beitragsservice von ARD, ZDF und Deutschlandradio
This article may be expanded with text translated from the corresponding article in German. (January 2010) Click [show] for important translation instructions.
View a machine-translated version of the German article.
You must provide copyright attribution in the edit summary accompanying your translation by providing an interlanguage link to the source of your translation. A model attribution edit summary Content in this edit is translated from the existing German Wikipedia article at [[:de:GEZ]]; see its history for attribution.
You should also add the template {{Translated|de|GEZ}} to the talk page.
ARD ZDF Deutschlandradio Beitragsservice
Collecting society
Gebühreneinzugszentrale (GEZ)
1976 (as GEZ)
Cologne, North Rhine-Westphalia
Stefan Wolf (CEO)
€168 million[1] (2016)
www.rundfunkbeitrag.de
The Beitragsservice von ARD, ZDF und Deutschlandradio (English: Contribution service of ARD, ZDF and Deutschlandradio), commonly referred to simply as Beitragsservice, with headquarters in Cologne is an unincorporated joint organisation of Germany's public broadcasting institutions ARD, ZDF and Deutschlandradio as well as their public-law affiliates. The Beitragsservice center is responsible for collecting television and radio licence fees (German: Rundfunkbeitrag) from private individuals, companies and institutions in Germany. Mandatory licence fees are set in the Rundfunkfinanzierungsstaatsvertrag (English: State Treaty on the Financing of Broadcasting). Since 2013, every private household in Germany has been required to pay these fees, regardless of whether the household actually has the capability to receive the broadcasts themselves.[2] Exceptions can be made for individuals with low income or health issues. Until 2013, the organisation was known as GEZ, short for Gebühreneinzugszentrale der öffentlich-rechtlichen Rundfunkanstalten in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland (English: Fee Collection Center of the Public Broadcasting Companies in the Federal Republic of Germany). The organisation collaborates with German civil registration offices to enforce the collection of the fees.
2 Tasks
3 Planning of licence fees
4 Charging of licence fees
5 License fee revenues and administrative costs
6 Elicitation and storage of data
7 Resistance
The Beitragsservice is an association of administrations subject to public law and has no legal capacity. It operates as a joint data center of the ARD state broadcasting institutions, the ZDF and Deutschlandradio, and administers the collection of licence fees. It was created by an administrative agreement.
The Beitragsservice is therefore not a legal entity of its own, but a part of the public broadcasting institutions. However, the Beitragsservice is a public authority in the material sense according to the Administrative Procedures Act of the Federal Republic of Germany (VwVfG), because it conducts public administration tasks. It conducts these tasks on behalf of the state broadcasting institutions.
Since January 1, 1976, the Beitragsservice (known as GEZ until 2013) has collected Rundfunkgebühren (broadcast licence fees) as set in the Rundfunkfinanzierungsstaatsvertrag . This had previously been the responsibility of Deutsche Bundespost, the West German federal post office. The GEZ's tasks in detail were:
Collection of licence fees (obtaining licence fees in arrears, handling of payments)
Remission of licence fees
Planning of licence fees
On December 31, 1976, 18.5 million TV sets and 20.4 million radios were registered in the Federal Republic of Germany.
The Beitragsservice has overall control over the planning of licence fee revenues from the supply of public-legal broadcasting in the Federal Republic of Germany. Based on preliminary work by the Beitragsservice, licence fees are planned for a period of five years in advance or the current fee period by the Arbeitsgruppe Gebührenplanung (license fee planning work group), which is a subgroup of the Finanzkommission der Rundfunkanstalten (Financial Commission of Broadcasting Institutions). The managing director of the Beitragsservice is the chairperson of the Arbeitsgruppe Gebührenplanung.
Charging of licence fees
The licence fee for Radio, TV and new media amounted to €17.98 per month, from 1 January 2009 onwards. For radio reception alone, the monthly fee was €5.76.
On June 9, 2010, state governors decided that Heidelberg University Professor Paul Kirchhof's model of a flat-rate household licence fee would be introduced in 2013. The model set out the collection of licence fees as a lump sum per household, regardless of the number of broadcast reception devices present, or even, if any devices are present at all. This required that the 'GEZ' be reorganised, and that broadcast licence fee commissioners are no longer be employed by state broadcasting institutions. The monthly fee per household is now €17.98, the amount previously payable for television reception. Fee payers who previously only registered a radio or a "novel broadcast reception device" but no TV set, will see their licence fee increase by 212% (from €5.76 to €17.98), however households which previously had to pay multiple licence fees will have to pay less.
Since 1 January 2013, the exemption for people with disabilities was replaced by a one-third fee.[2] Under the previous regulations, the deaf and hard-of-hearing viewers who were legally deaf had been exempt. However, they started to contribute in 2013 in spite of relatively few hours of TV programming with closed-captioning. Sign Dialog, the working group of German Association of the Deaf, has nominated that they are more willing to pay the full rate once the milestone of 100% closed-captioning programming has been reached.
License fee revenues and administrative costs
In 2010, the GEZ collected €7.65 billion in licence fees for state broadcasting institutions. Collection costs amounted to €160.5 million, which is about 2.13% of total revenue or €3.83 per participant. Additional costs are generated in the state broadcasting institutions by the so-called Beauftragtendienste (commissioner services), those expenditures for licence fee collection amounted to €184.97 million in 2007, according to the ARD 2008 yearbook.
According to its 2010 annual report, the GEZ employed 1148 people.
In 2016 the total sum of licence fees collected amounted to €7,978,041,425.77 thereof a revenue for Beitragsservice itself of €167,954,892.36.[1]
Elicitation and storage of data
The state broadcasting institutions, and the GEZ respectively, are allowed to store and administer all the fee payer data which is necessary to perform their tasks. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany counts 39 million private households, while the GEZ in 2004 held 41.2 million data sets of fee payers. These include 2.2 million data sets of fee payers who de-registered ownership of devices which can receive radio/television. GEZ had one of the most comprehensive databases on the population of the Federal Republic of Germany.
Another source of data are resident registration offices which forward new registrations and changes of registration to the Beitragsservice. In 2002, German registration authorities transferred over 12 million data sets to the GEZ.
To identify non-payers, the GEZ adjusted their database with data sets purchased from commercial address vendors. This is allowed under the terms of Rundfunkstaatsvertrag, however, it is reminiscent of a dragnet investigation.
There are cases of some regional courts of law ruling against the legality of the foreclosures (Zwangsvollstreckung, forced seizure of property, e.g. directly from bank account registered with the tax office or from the pay check directly with the employing entity) to cover for the amount of due contribution (not tax), on the ground of the seizing organism being private and not part of the State. [1]
There has been one case of a citizen being jailed for not having property that could be seized. She was later released on the account of the charges being dropped by the offended organism after criticism from both public and private media. [2]
Although all informative and sometimes threatening mail is written in German, there are many support groups around the country and lots of content in English [3]. Those may help people that don't understand German (and therefore don't consume media contents in German) on how to deal with the situation. One example is how to set up a Pfändungsschutzkonto [4] to avoid the complete seizure of money from a bank account.
Another way, that was impossible in the past but now feasible due to the implementation of the mandatory use of IBAN for bank transfers, is to not have a German account at all, but an account in another Eurozone country. It is supposed that if such accounts are not registered on German statutory databases (e.g. risk management, tax office) the Beitragsservice has no way to seize funds. Nonetheless, it would still be possible for owed funds to be seized legally through an employer, for example as a deduction from one's overall income.
^ a b c "Jahresbericht 2016" [Annual Report 2016] (PDF). rundfunkbeitrag.de (in German). Retrieved 2018-04-26.
^ a b "What is the GEZ/Rundfunkbeitrag, and why should I pay it?". AllAboutBerlin.com. Retrieved 2018-03-17.
Wikimedia Commons has media related to ARD ZDF Deutschlandradio Beitragsservice.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


This antibody may replace item sc-18954 from Santa Cruz Biotechnology.
This gene product belongs to the DYRK family of dual-specificity protein kinases that catalyze autophosphorylation on serine/threonine and tyrosine residues. The members of this family share structural similarity, however, differ in their substrate specificity, suggesting their involvement in different cellular functions. The encoded protein has been shown to autophosphorylate on tyrosine residue and catalyze phosphorylation of histones H3 and H2B in vitro. Alternatively spliced transcript variants encoding different isoforms have been identified.
Find tissues and cell lines supported by DNA array analysis to express DYRK3.
Find tissues and cell lines supported by RNA-seq analysis to express DYRK3.


text:
Commicarpus stenocarpus (Chiov.) Cufod.
Bull. Jard. Bot. Natl. Belg. 39(Suppl.): p. xxi, basionymo cit. 1969
This name is a synonym of Boerhavia stenocarpa Chiov. by Caryophyllales.
The record derives from WCSP (in review) which reports it as a synonym of Boerhavia stenocarpa Chiov.
Cite taxon page as 'WFO (2023): Commicarpus stenocarpus (Chiov.) Cufod. Published on the Internet;http://www.worldfloraonline.org/taxon/wfo-0000617150. Accessed on: 29 Jan 2023'
Perennial 25-50 cm tall. Stem much branched, greyish white, younger branches densely puberulous glandular. Leaves ± fleshy (in nota), ovate or ovate-oblong to suborbicular or obcordate, 1-3 x 0.8-2.8 cm, obtuse to subacute or retuse, greyish tomentose, densely so when young. Petiole up to 1.4 cm long, glandular. Inflorescence glandular-puberulous. Flowers verticillate, 3-5 per node; nodes 0.8-1.3 cm apart. Pedicel 2.5-4 mm long; perianth infundibuliform, 5-5.5 mm long, pink-purple, purple or lilac (in nota). Stamens 3, far exserted. Style slender, stigma capitate. Anthocarp 6.5-7 mm long, clavate-subconical, strongly ribbed and tuberculate, yellow-brown.
Provided by: [B].Flora of Pakistan
Source: [
1 Commicarpus stenocarpus (Chiov.) Cufod., Flora of Pakistan, Tropicos.org, 2011 Accessed March 2020
Caryophyllales
https://caryophyllales.org/
Caryophyllales. World Flora Online Data. 2022.
Flora of Pakistan
http://www.tropicos.org/Project/Pakistan
Flora of Pakistan. Missouri Botanical Garden. Accessed on Jun. 2020.
B Missouri Botanical Garden
Commicarpus stenocarpus (Chiov.) Cufod.DescriptionGeneral Information: Perennial 25-50 cm tall. Stem m …DataBibliographyOther
Cite taxon page as 'WFO (2023): Commicarpus stenocarpus (Chiov.) Cufod. Published on the Internet;


Sony Ericsson has announced the XPERIA X1 Windows Mobile-based devices. Interesting news, since the company is a long time supporter of Symbian UIQ.
Very exciting news too because we all know how popular the Sony Ericsson handsets are and how well made they are.


This text is part of the collection entitled: General Collection and was provided by UNT Libraries Rare Book and Texana Collections to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. It has been viewed 48 times . More information about this text can be viewed below.


✔ HIGH AIRFLOW - MORE AIR CIRCULATION - The 62W motor and five wooden fan blades provides an incredible 4,450 CFM - an airflow efficiency of nearly 71 CFM/W.
✔ MULTIPLE SPEED OPTIONS - Activate and adjust the speed of the fan with the included pull chain. Our 52" indoor ceiling fan without lights is perfect for bedrooms and living rooms.


According to a report by Research and Markets, the chocolate market in the U.S. is projected to reach $30 billion by 2021. An increasing number of product offerings by private-label brands at affordable prices and shifting consumer preferences towards chocolate with health benefits are cited as two key factors that are driving market growth.
As the largest chocolate market in the world, the U.S. is seeing surging demand for premium, dark and sugar-free chocolates. The increasing use of chocolates in food and beverages, changing consumer tastes and preferences, and a growing chocolate gifting culture during special occasions are also contributing growth factors.
A wide and organized retail distribution network continues to boost sales of chocolate. In 2015, supermarkets/hypermarkets accounted for the largest share of sales in the U.S. chocolate market. By segment, the market was dominated by countline and seasonal chocolates, which accounted for a cumulative revenue share of approximately 65 percent.
Related: Candy Sales on the Rise; Almost Half of Cocoa from the Ivory Coast Rejected.


JERUSALEM (JTA) — Four Israelis with swine flu have died in two days.
The deaths, which bring the total number of deaths in Israel related to the H1N1 virus to 36, are the first since Sukkot.
A construction worker, 19, died Monday, two days after falling off some scaffolding, according to the Jerusalem Post. It is not known if he became dizzy as a result of the virus. A 57-year-old man who also died Monday had a chronic illness in addition to contracting the virus.
On Sunday, a year-old infant suffering from heart and lung problems and a cancer patient, 64, died after contracting the virus.
About 4,300 Israelis have been infected with the H1N1 virus, and at least eight are seriously ill with the virus in intensive care units throughout the country, according to reports.
Swine flu vaccinations will be given to the Israel public beginning next week.


text:
Alles ist Gut
massa critica | michele d'ariano simionato + marco jacomella
Learning from cities has become commonplace in architectural culture since the 1970s, and although Northern Switzerland can seem less inspiring than the Mojave Desert, the social, cultural and economic dynamics that have characterised Zurich during the last fifty years are worth to be acknowledged, so to better understand, among other things, the paradoxical role that counterculture movements can play in the frame of urban transformation processes.
The early twenty-first century shows a renewed interest in the Western city. After the middle-class migration to the suburbs of the post-war period, contemporary cities are increasing their population and being exposed to real estate speculation, which in many cases brings about social inequality, disposition, and displacement (Harvey, 2008). As public spaces are turning into instruments of economic speculation (Sevilla-Buitrago, 2013), contemporary cities are turning from being a right for many into an asset for the few.
As Lefebvre states in his seminal work The Urban Revolution (1970), cities are constantly produced by a continuous dialectic between opposites, e.g., social rights and institutional order: they thrive, prosper, and evolve thanks to these contrasts. According to the French sociologist, the production of urban space could be then described as the result of a "continuous tension between isotopy – the accomplished and rationalised spatial order of capitalism and the state – and heterotopia" (Harvey, 2012). According to David Harvey, Lefebvre's concept of heterotopia "delineates liminal social spaces of possibilities where 'something different' is not only possible, but foundational for the defining of revolutionary trajectories" (Harvey, 2012).
In a more and more unequal and fragmented society, it is crucial to understand the role of the city, of its citizens and, moreover, of these heterotopias, these Freiräume, namely these flexible, undefined, and out-of-the-market spaces, as a way to challenge inequalities and develop a critical, long lasting, and productive antagonism.
This refers to and questions directly the Right to the City (Lefebvre, 1968), i.e. the "right to change ourselves by changing the city (…), the exercise of a collective power to reshape the processes of urbanisation" (Harvey, 2008), because of the marginalisation and exclusion of many. The reduction of spaces, alternative to the ones produced by the capital, narrows down "the possibilities to reclaim the city for thinking and producing alternatives from both the market and the state control" (Klein, 2001).
Karthago ('81-84), then and now
Zurich as case study
Zurich is an illustrative example of some of the concerns and processes expressed above.
A global financial hub, the city has grown and attracted a constant flow of people and capital, thanks to the extremely enjoyable environment it offers. Several reports (Mercer, 2015 and The Economist, 2015), basing their findings on factors as safety, healthcare and environment, helped brand Zurich as one of the most liveable city in Europe.
This success comes at a high cost: the chronicle lack of affordable spaces in the inner city (in 2016, only the 0,22% of the housing stock was free, according to the Department Statistik Stadt Zürich) has been lately worsened by an unprecedented wave of high-end new constructions and urban regenerations (e.g., Europaallee, Zürich-West, Altstetten), triggering visible processes of gentrification and displacement of low income groups, extensive privatisation, and control of the urban fabric.
However, a more accurate look reveals how the success of the city was not only founded on economic grounds, but also built an opposition to them, through many experimental spaces, cultural centres, and social alternatives (Schmid, 1998).
The rise of Zurich to the status of global city has been defined by two very different forces (Schmid, 1998). On the one hand, the fiscal politics, the centralisation of capital and the development of a headquarter economy in the '70s positioned the city on a global level. On the other hand, a constant presence of grassroots movements opposing the most liberal aspects of this process triggered its social and cultural transformation. This dialectic – with its problematics and contradictions – has thus highly contributed to the definition of the current attractive and lively urban environment of Zurich.
Nevertheless, the early period of intense generation of proposals has been nowadays replaced by a progressive institutionalisation and incorporation of these movements into a market logic. The current situation has lost this fertile juxtaposition, increasing the risk of an impoverishment of the cultural landscape of the city.
Wohlgroth ('89-'94), then and now
A brief historical excursus
In the '60s Zurich became one of the main financial centres of the world. The city promoted big infrastructural renovations to adjust to its new role. These projects faced the opposition of big parts of the population, afraid that the proposed changes would transform the friendly small-town atmosphere of Zurich into a cold technocratic vision. Numerous referendums rejected all the major projects proposed by the Municipality, such as the Parkhaus Hechtplatz (1970), Expressstrasse-Ypsilon (1971-75) and the U-Bahn Projekt (1973). This opposition movement merged with the unrests started in Paris in the May 1968 and then spread at European level, creating a climate of tensions between institutions and population. Quoting M. Castells, the "people mobilised to change the city in order to change society".
The city was shaken by unprecedented agitations claiming social renewal, freedom of expression and measures against real estate speculations – among many others the Globus Krawalle (1968), the Autonome Republik Bunker (1970), Venedigstrasse (1971), Hegibachplatz (1974), the occupation of the Langstrasseunterführung (1978) and the Hohlstrassefest (1979). These protests managed to gather a transversal section of the society, expressing their needs and demands[1].
The refusal of any dialogue adopted by the institutions created a social standoff, which culminated the 30th of May 1980. The accumulated tensions, worsened by the persistent speculative bubble and the rigid positions of the Municipality, exploded in the Operakrawalle, marking the beginning of an "Urban Revolt" (Schmid, 2001) that ceased only two years later, when on the 23rd of March 1982 the AJZ, the social center symbol of the movement, was demolished.
In the aftermath of this turbulent period, the City adopted a new policy towards counterculture. The right-wing administration, faced by the failure of its repressive politics, opted for a softer approach, granting funds, providing infrastructures, and guaranteeing substantial tolerance. The budget for counterculture was progressively risen, increasing from 1 Million CHF in 1982 up to 11 Million CHF in 1990. Numerous experimental social centers were opened by the Municipality, like the Kanzlei (1984), the essay cinema Xenix and the Gessnerallee theater (1989). Finally, in 1989 the policy against occupations was changed: through the adoption of the so-called Genfer Modell, squatters were allowed to remain in an occupied building until its demolition or renovation, if the hygienic and safety standards were met.
This measure was also a pragmatic way to reverse the state of abandonment or underuse of large portions of urban territory at the time. While the urban politics of the '60s and '70s encouraged a policentric development of the economic and productive centres, the crisis of the industrial economy in the '80s relocated parts of the working class from the urban centre to suburbia (Schmid, 1998), causing a further shrinking of the population in the central neighbourhoods. Downtown became thus a slum for the so-called A-Gruppe: Arme, Alte, Ausländer, Arbeitslose, Abhängige (poor, old, foreigners, unemployed, dependent). The situation was worsened by the problem of the open-air drug scene. Started in the '70s around the Riviera and Bellevue, the drug market was periodically pushed around the city by the police until 1986, when it was gradually concentrated in the Platzspitz park, transforming it into the traumatic symbol of the degrade of downtown Zurich.
The direct intervention of the institutions avoided the risk of an exploitation of this situation by the private market. The promulgation in 1983 of the Lex Koller restricted the possibility for foreign capitals to buy Swiss real estates, thus hindering possible international speculations. In 1988, Ursula Koch – city councillor and Head of the Public Buildings Department since 1986 – declared in front of the general assembly of the SIA (Swiss Architects Association): "Die Stadt ist gebaut" – the city is already built. The policy of urban redevelopment she started rendered compulsory the use of design plans for the reconversion of large industrial areas, substantially ensuring a strong institutional control over the evolution of the city and discouraging the creation of large mono-functional districts.
This mix of supporting politics and the abundance of cheap spaces helped attract young and creative people, creating a momentum of intensive cultural production and underlying the transition of the city into a post-industrial society and economy.
In 1990, a Rot-Grün coalition won the majority in the Municipality for the first time since the '30s. Among a national economic recession and a worsened social situation, the coalition was urged to tackle the widespread drug scene. Acting first with repression, and then with support, the clearances of the Platzspitz Park (1992) and Letten Areal (1994) changed drastically the central districts 4 and 5, normalising the public spaces and stimulating young artists and creatives to move in.
The Municipality was quick to channel this new positive energy, promoting several interventions to sustain it and fostering a boom of new small enterprises. The Bars and Restaurants Deregulation Act (1998) encouraged the opening of many restaurants and bars. The techno scene started reusing old abandoned industrial buildings and invaded the city with the first street parade, soon transforming Zurich into a renowned party location, while all over the city independent art galleries and other informal cultural spaces bloomed. Many former political activists became part of this new creative economy, which became a strong and profitable industry, actively sponsored by institutions and skilfully used as an instrument of city marketing.
Elmar Lederberger, Head of the Public Buildings Department (1998) and later Stadtspräsident (2002), used this new image of Zurich to promote a successful politics of urban regeneration. Thanks to the new agreements between real estate investors and the association of citizens signed during the Stadtforum (September 1996 – June 1997), a new zoning plan was approved in 1999, introducing significant simplifications for the approval of new development plans. Furthermore, the federal parliament modified the Lex Koller (May 1997), allowing Swiss building contractors to enter the stock exchange and de facto paving the way for foreign real estate investments.
These new policies and the injection of fresh international capitals triggered a construction boom that deeply transformed the city. In the following fifteen years, the old factories and vacant lots where the counterculture had thrived were gradually replaced by luxury apartments, shopping centres and offices, taking advantage of the vibrant environment created by the substrate of previous informal spaces.
Perla Mode ('06-'15), then and now
Counterculture and City Government
We can see a specificity, a greatness in the experience of Zurich, which distinguishes it from other European practices. Its direct democracy, inclusive approach, and top-down support has proven to be extremely successful, transforming its internal contrasts into the tools to obtain the status of a sophisticated global city. On the one hand, the early alternative experiences have been progressively transformed into more durable and structured realities, able to move from a strategy of mere opposition to a more proactive one, as the successful examples of numerous building cooperatives show (Karthago, Dreieck, Kraftwerk 1, Mehr als Wohnen). On the other hand, after a first period of intransigent opposition, the Municipality understood the potentiality of these movements and started to support and finance them, creating an outlet for social tensions but also an important instrument for its own agenda. This interaction between movements and institutions created a symbiotic relationship that generated visibility, consensus, and wealth for both parties.
Nevertheless, this system seems today to be victim of its own success.
The chronic lack of affordable and available spaces is worsened by the impressive recent urban developments. The once overabundant former industrial areas have been progressively eroded and privatized. The competition for the use of the few spaces still available in the inner city incentives organization, financial support, and extended networks rather than spontaneity, freshness, and social critique. Many Freiräume were forced to turn into established spaces to survive, reducing the possibility to develop truly autonomous and alternative proposals.
The creative economy progressively assimilated the counterculture, generating an unsustainable model. Even the public patronage has been unable to stop this dynamic, on the contrary, it worsened the situation, rendering alternative projects more and more depending on public funding and therefore inevitably reducing their freedom and increasing their institutionalisation and normalisation. As put forward by the German sociologist Andreas Reckwitz in his book Die Erfindung der Kreativität, in the modern society capitalism transformed cultural production from opposition or critic of the system in a generator of mere entertainment, causing a loss in the relevance and quality of its contents and hindering experimentation and social renewal [2].
Zurich is today at the peak of its cultural richness and witnesses a boom of alternative building cooperatives, temporary uses and off-spaces. At a first glance, it seems like the promise written on the occupied houses of Tessinerplatzt and later in the main wall of Wohlgroth, "Alles wird Gut" (everything is going to be alright), has been fulfilled.
The present situation of the counterculture in the city, however, due to its unresolved contradictions and uncontrolled dynamics, risks to compromise this fragile balance and cause the disappearance of an exclusive heritage of culture and know-how. Without its rich counterculture, Zurich could lose its innovative uniqueness. There is today the necessity to reflect on how to reverse this trend and recognise the fundamental role of the Freiräume as incubators of sustainable visions for the city.
The movement of the last decades showed us that a different city is possible. Are we satisfied with what we have today? Or it is time to claim something more?
* Alles ist Gut is a collaborative research on Zurich's counterculture and evolution of alternative spaces over the past fifty years. The project is composed by a book, an exhibition and a symposium. Through the voices of some of its protagonist and theorists, the book guides the reader in the (re)discovery of this scene, reflecting on the social production and appropriation of the urban realm.
Alternative places in Zurich 1960-2015
1. "Die enge gesellschaftliche Verquickung von Ästhetisierung und Ökonomisierung hat ohnhin bereits stattgefunden und es müsste für die staatliche Politik darum gehen, hier eine alternative Logik stark zu machen, die die Überhitzungen des Kreativitätsdispositivs versucht abzukühlen".
2. "Junge und alte waren sich einig mit der Protestaktion fortzufahren. Nur wenn sich tausende von Mietern vereinigten und den Spekulanten trotzen, bestünde eine Chance, dass alle Leute eine Wohnung finden würden. Werte Anwesende, junge und alte Mitbürger, was heute Abend Erfreuliche ist, ist vor allem der Zusammenschluss von den jungen und von den alten". (Vollversammlung im Volkshaus der Mieter Tessinerplatzt, Frühling 1971, SF DRS Archiv, in "Allein machen sie dich ein", Mischa Brutschin, Zürich, 2010)
Manuel Castells, The City and the Grassroots: A Cross-cultural Theory of Urban Social Movements, University of California Press, Berkeley, 1983
Ursula Koch, Bauen in Zürich zwischen Utopie und Resignation, Stadt Zürich, Zürich, 1988, Pp. 8
René L. Frey, Stadt: Lebens- und Wirtschaftsraum, Verlag der Fachvereine vdf, Zürich, 1996.
Christian Schmid, The Dialectics of Urbanisation in Zurich: Global City Formation and Urban Social Movements. In: INURA, Possible Urban Worlds. Urban Strategies at the End of the 20th Century, Birkhäuser, Basel, 1998, Pp. 216–225
Heinz Nigg, Wir wollen alles, und zwar subito!, Limmat Verlag, Zürich, 2001
Thomas Stahel, Wo-Wo-Wonige! Stadt-und wohnpolitisches Bewegungen in Zürich nach 1968!, Universität Zürich, Zürich, 2006
David Harvey, The right to the city, in "New Left Review", nr. 53, September–October 2008, pp. 23–40
Marc Angst, Philipp Klaus, Tabea Michaelis, Rosmarie Müller, Stephan Müller, Richard Wolff, zone*imaginaire, Verlag der Fachvereine vdf, Zürich, 2009
Mischa Brutschin, Allein machen sie dich ein, Zürich, 2010
Neil Brenner, Peter Marcuse, Margit Mayer, eds, Cities for People, Not for Profit: Critical Urban Theory and the Right to the City, Routledge, New York, 2012
David Harvey, Rebel Cities, Verso, London/New York, 2012
Henri Lefebvre, Spatial Politics, Everyday Life and the Right to the City, Routledge, New York, 2012
Philipp Klaus, INURA, Räume und Bewegungen der Kreativen in Zürich 1989-2014, Stadt Zürich, Zürich, 2015
Naomi Klein, Naomi Klein: Squatters In White Overalls, in "The Guardian", n.p., 2017. Web. 30 Jan. 2017
Michele D'Ariano Simionato is an architect and curator. He studied Architecture in Ferrara and Spatial Design at the Zürich University of the Arts. His works have won several prizes and have been exposed also at Biennale Venezia, Theater Gessenerallee and Salon Suisse.
Marco Jacomella is an architect and urban designer. He holds an ETH MAS in Housing studies and a Master Degree in Architecture from University of Ferrara. After international working and teaching experiences, he currently practices as project architect in Zürich and conducts research on the possibility of housing as a common in Italy.
Hanno vinto loro
No Housing Format for Today
Forte Pozzacchio: guardare senza essere visti
Footprint 23: The Architecture of Logistics
Extended Program of the Dutch Pavilion 2018


Five suburban school districts and a community college system are seeking voter approval to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars for renovations and upgrades, as population growth strains existing facilities and local companies demand more skilled workers.
Conroe, Magnolia, Willis, Cleveland and Alvin are among the school districts that have bond measures on the ballot Tuesday, as does San Jacinto College. The elections come a year after voters in the Klein, Pasadena, Katy and Fort Bend districts approved similar bond measures to pay for constructing, expanding and upgrading schools. Katy ISD voters last year approved a $748 million bond that would pay for, among other things, a new football stadium.
Texas Southern University political scientist Michael Adams said population pressures in the suburbs have prompted districts to increasingly pursue bonds.
"We see a lot of growth in terms of school bonds and these kinds of things," Adams said. "There's a need."
In the coming election, Conroe ISD's $487 million bond measure is the biggest of the bunch. The Montgomery County district that includes The Woodlands has seen its student population grow from more than 47,000 in 2008 - when the last bond referendum was passed - to about 55,000 today, prompting administrators to call for more schools, buses and land.
Nearly $142 million of the $487 million bond will pay for a new high school in the Oak Ridge area east of Interstate 45, where the expansion of the Grand Parkway and construction of the Exxon Mobil headquarters have spurred new residential developments.
Roughly another third of the package would pay to build a new junior high school serving grades seven and eight, an intermediate school for grades six through eight and two new elementary schools.
Tens of millions are also slated for security and technology upgrades at Conroe ISD.
"It's all about needs" of the district," CISD board president John Husbands said recently. "There's not any 'wants' in there. It's about what we need to take care of kids, and that's why I believe people are positive on our bond issue."
In Brazoria County, voters will decide on a $245 million measure for Alvin ISD. The district plans to set aside about $160 million for new elementary and junior high schools; $45 million for a career and technical education center; and $41 million for a new stadium. That bond also includes money for building upgrades and new land, among other pieces.
"We're just kind of growing all over right now," said Buck Gilcrease, superintendent of Alvin ISD in Brazoria County, noting that the district added nearly 1,350 students between May and August.
Gilcrease said the focus on technical education reflects a statewide movement "to focus on student success after high school, whether that includes a four-year university or certification program."
Three other school districts that are at least partly in Montgomery County also have bond referenda: two measures totaling $92 million for Magnolia ISD; a $109 million measure for Willis ISD; and a $35 million for Cleveland ISD.
In the Bay area, San Jacinto College is pushing a $425 million bond measure that administrators say would allow the community college to enhance petrochemical workforce training and refurbish antiquated buildings.
Teri Crawford, the community college system's vice chancellor for marketing, public relations and government affairs, said the system is looking to make its buildings more friendly to student collaboration. For example, instead of having a lecture room with traditional rows of seats, the college system would outfit the room with one central table and seats that can be moved around the table or elsewhere in the room.
"How education was done 50 years ago is very different than the collaborative space that you need today," Crawford said.
The biggest component is more than $52 million for what Crawford said is a "center for petrochemicals, energy and technology" - a facility that would train students in the technology used in the industry's workforce. Crawford said that even during the current oil price slump, companies have been clamoring for more workers.
Opposition to the Nov. 3 ballot measures has apparently been minimal. That can partly be explained by calling an election in an odd year instead of an even year, when presidential or gubernatorial races might bring out more voters, said Adams, chairman of the political science department at TSU, who has studied school bond elections.
"When this happens," Adams said, "I think the electorate is less polarized. You can even surmise that the turnout would be even smaller. Consequently, they tend to be better-informed, the people who do turn out."
Most of the bond measures before Houston-area voters include an increase in property tax rates. Magnolia ISD does not expect a tax increase, according to district documents. However, Conroe ISD anticipates a 1 cent increase per $100 of property valuation and San Jacinto College expects a 3-cent rate hike. Other rate increases that are forecast include Willis ISD (6.75 cents), Alvin ISD (8.3 cents) and Cleveland ISD (8 cents).
Home values in all of these districts have generally grown as well, so residents are likely to see higher property tax bills.
The Alvin TEA Party Patriots recommends voting against Alvin ISD's proposal, questioning the district's cost estimates for the new schools, but a group representative did not respond to a request for comment.
The Texas Patriots PAC, an influential tea party group based in The Woodlands that organizes voters along local elections, said it was endorsing Conroe ISD's bond measure.
"Clearly Montgomery County and the area that CISD is in has been a very fast-growing area," said Jon Bauman, vice president of the group. "Clearly it will continue to grow, it's just a question of when and what pace. Clearly they need these schools."


text:
Sustainability and Compassion
Unfold Nest
Acts of Compassion
Critical Web Links
Compassion in Crisis Times – 1
Program in Detail
Home Program in Detail
Presented jointly by Sejahtera Leadership Initiative (SLI, USIM, Malaysia) and Xavier Centre of Humanities and Compassion Studies (XCHCS) in collaboration with Xavier School of Sustainability (XSOS), Xavier University Bhubaneswar (XUB, India). The seminar will focus on Peace, Sustainability and Compassion. These are essential to the humanistic wellbeing of any individual's professional, social and personal life. These are also essential to the well-being of society.
Session One
11.15 0 AM – 12.45 PM (Orientation)
Keynote Presentation
Global Change Agents Within the Framework of Sejahtera Leadership
Prof. Tan Sri Dzulkifli Abdul Razak,
SLI Founding Convener
Former VC of Science University of Malaysia (USM), Penang, Malaysia
Presently Rector, International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM)
Three Decades of SD: A Voice From the "Past"
The presentation will trace the history of Sustainable Development (SD) since its introduction in 1987. The idea of SD has captured much attention and imagination in redefining "development" to be "sustainable". But there are still many discernible gaps to be addressed. This becomes even more apparent when we try to decolonise the term. SD when viewed from various local traditions with its own body of indigenous knowledge (as well as experience that has long co-existed with many indigenous communities) seem to be problematic. Much of the indigenous views have been left out in the 1987 SD version. Today it necessitates the "revision" of SD with the 'voice from the past'. In the presentation, a case for Sejahtera (a notion local to the Malay world in Southeast Asia) will be elaborated to illustrate the point.
Session Two
2.00 PM – 4.00 PM (Application)
Experience and Capabilities of Emerging Sejahtera Leaders in Asia & Latin America.
Facilitated by
Dr. Zulkifly Baharom, Yazdi Jehangir Bankwala, Dr. Mahazan Abdul Mutalib & Johan Dzulkifli:
In a nutshell, the 2-hour speaking engagement will touch on human/humane values and sustainability from the blended experiences of a UK student, an Islamic scholar, a seasoned consultant and a corporate professional trainer. Each one will bring his presentation within the spirit of Sejahtera Culture and Leadership, as presented in the first session. Each speaker will speak for about 30 minutes (inclusive of 10 minutes Q&A ).
Dr. Zulkifly and Mr Yazdi (1 Hour)
Dr. Zulkifly comes with a waste experience in corporate training. He is instrumental in inculcating human values in Malaysia Airlines (national airlines of Malaysia), a company that had 22,000 strong workforce on the ground and that covered 150 domestic and international destinations (including South Africa) worldwide. He had also been invited by other airlines companies in Asia to promote corporate values within the Sejahtera Cultural framework.
Mr. Yazdi Jehangir
Yazdi was instrumental in helping Dr. Zulkifly as an external consultant promoting the values methodology. He has vast experience in value clarification methodology and the promotion of human values in the corporate sector, all aiming at sustainability.
Johan Dzulkifli
Johan will speak about his values research and experience as a student in Latin America. He will open another facet of Sejahtera Culture and Leadership. Will specifically address concerns of youth.
Dr. Mahazan
Dr. Mahazan will speak about Qalb Leadership from the universal and Islamic perspectives. This again is open another pathway to understanding the cultural notion of Sejahtera, sustainability and compassion.
Profile of Speakers
Professor Tan Sri Dato Dzulkifli Abdul Razak
Professor Tan Sri Dato Dzulkifli Abdul Razak, the Founding Convener of Sejahtera Leadership Initiative (SLI) is the Chairperson of Islamic Science University Malaysia (USIM) and the Rector (Vice Chancellor) of International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM). He has more than four decades of experience in the academic world as well as effective administration of higher education. Thus, he was unanimously elected as the 14th President (2012-2016) for the International Association of Universities (IAU), a UNESCO affiliated organization, based in Paris. Prior to this appointment, he served as the President of Association of Southeast Asia Institutions of Higher Learning (ASAIHL) & a Fellow of the Academy of Sciences. He was awarded the prestigious 2017 Gilbert Medal in recognition of "his long term commitment to an integrated approach to internationalization, to sustainable sejahtera leadership approach to international higher education (HE) and his tireless work to develop the clearly public good dimensions of HE," in addition to being "distinctive in his willingness to challenge western knowledge systems and to support the development and dissemination of alternative views on science, education philosophy". In August 2017, he received the Asia HRD Award "for his transformational work in the field of education, talent and people development".
He was the 5th Vice Chancellor of Science University Malaysia (USM) and held the office from 2000-2011. As Vice Chancellor, he was instrumental in introducing many creative and innovative ideas and concepts that led to USM being acknowledged by the United Nations University (UNU) as one of the seven pioneering Regional Centers of Expertise (RCE) world-wide on Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) in conjunction with the United Nations Decade on ESD 2005-2014. Now there are 160 of RCEs worldwide. Under his leadership, USM singularly gained the status as the first APEX (Accelerated Programme for Excellence) university in Malaysia. It was at USM campus during that he first mooted the culturally rich notion of Sejahtera and formalized it as a citizens' initiative known as Sejahtera Leadership Initiative (SLI) based at USIM on 10th January 2017.
Dr. Haji Zulkifly Baharom
Dr. Haji Zulkifly Baharom, CEO of Sejahtera Leadership Initiative (SLI) is a Chartered Fellow of the Chartered Institute Personnel and Development (CIPD) United Kingdom and the World Union of Small and Medium Enterprises (WUSME) Ambassador in Malaysia. WUSME based in San Marino is recognized as a Partnering Organization with the United Nations Global Compact and the acquisition of the Special Consultative Status at the United Nations Economic and Social Council. Concurrently, he also served as Honorary Secretary of the Malaysia – Philippines Business Council (MPBC). He has more than 4 decades of experience in corporate sector and teaches leadership, HRD and entrepreneurship and HRD at the Graduate Business Schools locally and abroad. His corporate-span covered manufacturing, oil and gas, airlines and education sectors.
A graduate of Asian Institute of Management (AIM) Manila, for the past 7 years prior to joining SLI in 2017, he has served as CEO of the Malaysian Institute of Management (MIM) for 4 years (2010-2013); one year (2014) as Chair/Project Director of National Human Resource Standards under the Ministry of Human Resources; 2 years (2015 -2016) as Secretariat Head & Project Director of International Council of Islamic Finance Educators (ICIFE) based at the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM).
Currently, as a CEO together with the SLI Team, he puts fundamental philosophy and concepts of Sejahtera Leadership and values to work through research findings, case studies and stories documentations, training & development, consultation & advisory services and engaging with like minded scholars, professionals and NGO activists at workshops and seminars.
Mr. Yazdi Jehangir Bankwala
Mr. Yazdi Jehangir Bankwala, Associate Director of Sejahtera Leadership Initiative (SLI) is the Principal Consultant at Arpitha Associates in Singapore and Malaysia. Since 1995, he has conducted training programs and consultancy services for organizations in the areas of 'Organizational Transformation, Corporate Values Clarifications and Change Management'. He has been a speaker on Leadership, Ethics, Values at several international forums in Asia and Europe including at the European Parliament in 2009. His clients include Fortune 500 companies such as Amoco, BP, Indian Oil, Petronas, and government linked companies like Malaysia Airlines, TNB and UEM based in Malaysia.
Basically, a law graduate, Yazdi a British citizen completed his marketing and business studies in the United Kingdom. A major part of his experience has been with a European international bank where he gained valuable diversity exposure working with all levels of people from a variety of cultures. His active involvement with SLI in January 2018 is a revisit to the passion on values inculcation programs that he has been involved in Malaysia, especially his best years of consultations and training work with Malaysia Airlines.
Dr. Mahazan Abdul Mutalib
Dr. Mahazan Abdul Mutalib, the Director of Research Management and Innovation at the Islamic Science University Malaysia (USIM) is an Associate Professor at the Faculty of Leadership and Management. He also acts as the Principal Investigator for the Mizan Research Centre at USIM, which focuses on establishing narratives and models for a balanced co-existence lifestyle through analysis of kampungs (villages) and ingenious people from the perspectives of Sejahtera, economic livelihood, peace and compassion.
Together with SLI Team and USIM Faculty, he facilitated the Qalb-Balanced Leadership Modules for Higher Education Leaders from Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore. Concurrently, he is finalizing a manuscript entitled the 'Qalb-Based Leadership for Malaysia Higher Education Leaders' and several other research projects namely 'The Kampung Mizan Initiative' and 'The Nature and Functions of Qalb in Leadership from the Islamic Perspectives'. He has also led a research project team on 'The Islamic Leadership Behaviour Model for Malaysian Organizations' fully funded by Fundamental Research Grant Scheme (FRGS) under the Ministry of Higher Education respectively.
Mr. Johan Dzulkifli
Mr. Johan Dzulkifli, PhD student based at University of Westminster, UK is a Policy Researchers and Specialist in Latin America cultures and values. As an Independent Consultant, offering his services to oversee, advice and prepare reports for political and non-governmental projects mainly based in Mexico. Most notably collaborated on a public proposal for an oversight committee for Mexico City Constituent Congress (2016-2017) on Governance of Open Government. His current and future projects include social cohesion engagement with local NGOs and think tanks to forge partnership between Mexican civil societies with the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Pan-American.
Last February 2018, Johan graduated with MA in International Relations & Democratic Politics (with Distinction) at University of Westminster, UK. His dissertation entitled 'European Union Foreign Policy Towards Latin America: Assessing Global European Union Normative Power in the Context of Interregional Cooperation'. His undergraduate study was at University of Bristol, UK and in June 2009 obtained his BSc in Accounting & Finance (Honours). From October 2012-October 2015, he served as Information Officer at the Embassy of Malaysia in Mexico City. Johan, SLI Champion is a linchpin and focal point providing research linkages on sejahtera leadership from Latin America practices.
All images has been taken from open source site www.pexels.com
©2022 XIM University, Bhubaneswar, All rights reserved


Sold to raise funds for the charity's welfare work the 2019 iCatCare calendar is now available!
Each calendar is A4 landscape (opens to A3 portrait size) and features the winning images from iCatCare's 2018 'Kittenhood' photography competition.
Poster – how old is your cat?