text:
A Discussion On Religion in China
June 25, 2008 by Oli 32 Comments
This is a continuation of the discussion from the June 14th 2008 blog entry "Chocolate City" – Africans seek their dreams in China", an article originally published in The Southern Metropolis Daily Jan 2008. Because of axes and grinding the discussion morphed from a debate about race relations in China to one about religions in China. As I have been invited to turn it into a blog entry and the issue of religions in China appears topical, I am posting the extract from my comments and other posters' responses and questions, sans editing (apart from my own extract's typos).
Please Note: I am a newbie at blogging and nor am I a full- time blogger. Any perceived expletives occurred in the heat of passion(ate) (debate), as these things are wont to happen and I beg readers' indulgence.
The Extract
Oli Says:
So we have moved from race to religion now have we? My, some people do have a very big axe to grind and I wonder what carrying around such a big axe all the time does to a person's mental health and rationality particularly when one is prone to using sweeping generalisations.
@ FOARP & Anon
"Metrics of religious freedom" depends on who commission these reports/statistical analysis, their motivations and agenda, what are its criteria, parameters, interpretative methodology etc. Consequently, anybody can play these absurd statistical games. Survey companies and statistical analysts/researchers/"scientists" churn out such "studies" by the busload every week to say what partisan/marketing/interest groups want it to say, such that it all becomes so much "marketing", hypercritical BS.
In China, with its 50+ ethnic groups and corresponding religious and cultural practices, people pretty much practice whatever religion/belief system they want within the privacy of their own homes, subject to certain legal restraints and exclusions, some of which are no different from other countries' and some that are specific to China's own socio-political circumstances, evolution and perceived needs.
If you are born into a family of certain religious convictions and continue that belief/practice or you seek to join certain legally recognised religion of your own volition or seek to individually convert, there are no existing ban stopping you from doing so. But, the biggest NO NO is the ban on public proselytising, preaching, actively seeking converts and the politicisation of religion.
Such restrictions/rejections didn't began with the Communists, but have always been both part of Chinese culture and were at one time or another formalised in its legal code or by imperial edict. The reasons are manifold and some of it includes maintaining social peace (imagine the fuss Chinese Muslims or Tibetan Buddhists will kick up if some happy-clappy American/S. Korean missionaries publicly and loudly set up shop in their neighbourhood and seek to convert their youth) and other Chinese' cultural disdain for their children to join a celibate clergy, whether of the Buddhist or Christian persuasion, because of a perceived duty/importance to continue the family name/line and to have progenitors, especially under the one-child policy.
Nor are such restrictions/ban unique to China. Turkey bans the wearing of the head scarf in certain circumstances, Malaysia bans the seeking of Muslim converts, certain US states ban the practice of religious polygamy (I would love to see them go after the Saudi princes, no wait oil is at stake) and same sex marriages. Ireland bans abortion on religious grounds (if you are pro-choice), the UK generally allows abortion (if you are pro-life), Germany imposes a church tax on everybody irrespective of their religion and the list goes on, including bureaucratic or judicial mechanism for the automatic banning of cults that are deemed not conducive to public health or interests.
As different religions have always been practised in China and for the sake of social stability and efficiency, Chinese governments have always maintained and insisted on its legal and political supremacy over any religious/spiritual institutions. And this was so even long before the idea of a separation of state and church and parliamentary/legislative supremacy was but a twinkle in the eyes of Voltaire (a fan of Confucian rationalism), Rousseau, Bacon and the French/Scottish revolutionaries of the European Enlightenment period.
Because of historical experiences and competing religions, China's peoples, particularly the majority Han Chinese have always been too pragmatic and cynical/sceptical to go wholesale into one religion or another, so that they are more superstitious, at best "spiritual", than religious. Consequently, China is perhaps the only ancient civilisation that does not have a home grown organised religion (personally I consider Taoism (The Way) more a philosophy than a religion) nor adopted an official state religion.
Besides, the loudest complaining seems to come from foreign pseudo-religious interest groups who are being deprived of potentially new "customers" and new "revenue streams". And lest we forget, it is these same religious groups/people who are so irrationally convinced of the "rightness" of their own interpretation of the divine or its existence that have so often been the cause/impetus of religious/sectarian bloodshed.
Just look at the Crusades and some American right wing religious neo-cons' unquestioning support of Israeli government policies simply because they believe that the second coming of Jesus will occur if all Jews returned to Palestine. On the other hand there was nary a squeak of protest/condemnation from the pro-democracy/freedom of religion brigade when the Algerian military took power in a coup d'etat just when an Islamist party won the election in the 1990s and was poised to take power. How utterly hypocritical .
So ultimately tough luck, it's the law of the land and to harp on about China restricting "freedom" of religion is a disingenuity based on a selective and myopic narrative, concluding in sweeping generalisations to support a narrow, partisan political purpose, whilst disregarding the overall picture and China's socio-political evolution and circumstances. And frankly why should China be like everybody else??? How boring and inherently intolerant is that!
Consequently, I would rather that China's peoples remain superstitious/spiritual rather than religious and that current restrictions remain in place. This way its people will continue to question the possible existence/non-existence of the divine and its social and ethical mores can continue to evolve and to adapt to changes, for this has always been what underpinned the perseverance of its civilisation. All too often it is only when we are too sure of ourselves and of what we believe in that we stagnate, ossify, and give rise to religious/racial/political conflicts.
FOARP Says:
@Oli – Please explain the ban on following Roman Catholicism, the world's largest religion.
Please explain the ban on Anglicanism.
Please explain the ban on the Society Of Friends (AKA the Quakers).
Please explain the bar on the religious joining the communist party.
These are not quirks, and pointing them out is not an 'absurd statistical game'. They constitute a campaign on the part of the government to eliminate any competition for the loyalty of the populace. You are right to say these restrictions are not unique to China, I believe North Korea exercises even stronger forms of oppression – no doubt the high level of development in that country is a result of this.
Do you not find the idea that those of religious belief in China must restrict themselves to the so-called 'Patriotic' religious organisations 'boring and inherently intolerant'?
S.K. Cheung Says:
To Oli:
"As different religions have always been practised in China and for the sake of social stability and efficiency, Chinese governments have always maintained and insisted on its legal and political supremacy over any religious/spiritual institutions" – it's one thing to be spiritual/superstitious within the confines of your own home; but it's a little harder to seek fellowship when the state condemns congregation. I agree with some of your points, for example, Christian-based faiths do have a somewhat "viral" nature about them, but if a family doesn't want their "one child" to be enticed into leading a life of celibacy, isn't that an issue for the family to deal with, rather than have big brother decide for them? It's also striking how frequently China does things for the "sake of social stability"…is its society so inherently unstable, or is that just the convenient CCP tagline to quash any progenitors of potential dissent?
As for answering FOARP and SK Cheung their questions, I would like to do it under a new entry and a new thread just for the sake of orderliness. But to give FOARP a hint of my answers to his questions, I would say that the they lie in FOARP's own supposedly Anglican educational background and that he should look there for the answers to his own questions. And should he still not understand, he can ask me again under the new blog entry and I shall endeavour to answer them.
@Oli – Yes, I went to a C. Of E. Primary School – what's your point? If I am anything now, I am an agnostic. If you think that the Archbishop of Canterbury is somekind of evil genius plotting against China, or are worried that someone like Desmond Tutu might come out of some Chinese Christian movement (and wouldn't that be terrible?), let me just say that I doubt things would turn out that way.
Obviously, a group like the Society of Friends is an evil conspiracy against the Chinese people – I mean, they are pacifists who live according to personal beliefs, the danger is clear for everyone to see!
My Responses
@FOARP
Generally, my approach is that I take things as I see it and try to discern why they are the way they are and if they are different, to understand why they are different rather than making self-limiting value judgements such as whether something is "good" or "evil". My pointing you to search your own knowledge of Anglicanism for possible reasons why China bans the Anglican Church is just simply that, nothing more, nothing less. And, provided you don't break the law nor cause harm, you could be a Satan worshipper who regularly prances around in diapers within a pentangle for all I care.
These (surveys on freedom of religion in China) are not quirks, and pointing them out is not an 'absurd statistical game'.
Well, you can continue to stomp your feet and hold your breath, but until you provide specific reasons why such surveys on religious freedom in China should be credible or even considered pertinent, simply reiterating or insisting otherwise won't make them so. Furthermore, if you define your understanding of people, places and things by what it is not rather than by what it is, you will never grasp its true nature and will continue to wallow in misguided prejudice and misconception of your own making and what you blindly allow yourself to be fed.
@ S. K. Cheung
Whether a society is inherently unstable or not is largely irrelevant for it is the function and purpose of any government of any nations to prevent any potential instability while regulating and accommodating changes. Consequently, all governments are arguably by definition and by its very nature inherently conservative.
Note: Please leave any further comments on the thread titled On China and Religion.
Filed Under: Analysis, culture, q&a Tagged With: culture, race, religion
Buxi says
Oli,
Any chance you could make this entry a comment in one of the other threads, instead of setting up a different thread for this…?
FOARP says
@Oli – I am at a loss to explain why you would seek to defend a system which you do not understand.
Person says
It is true that you have to register in order to be part of the religious group?
It is that true, then it seen to be very un need because I think it really make people feel tense?
I doubt you have to register just to be a religious follower. But if you're a religious leader/preacher, I suspect you have to be registered in some way.
There are advantages to registering in some cases. You've probably seen registered Buddhists get into temples for free, while tourists have to pay money?
S.K. Cheung says
"Whether a society is inherently unstable or not is largely irrelevant"- actually, in the context of my point, that is not true. I don't think China is inherently unstable. My point is the the CCP plays on the threat of instability merely as a guise to oppress those who challenge its authority.
somebody says
To S.K. Cheung:
Do you know how bad things get doing the culture revloution, my parent live throught it and I think that you not seening alot of things that had happen in China.
To Somebody:
I was fortunately nowhere near China during the cultural revolution. I think even the most ardent China supporters on this site find the cultural revolution objectionable, and would not like to return to those times. It should be noted, though, that the CCP was the author of said revolution. It would be disingenuous for them to claim the revolution as a sign of potential societal instability, since they brought it on themselves.
S.K.Cheung,
It should be noted, though, that the CCP was the author of said revolution. It would be disingenuous for them to claim the revolution as a sign of potential societal instability, since they brought it on themselves.
Is it disingenuous for the Democratic Party to today claim to represent the African-American vote, when it was the Party of racists and slave-owners who tried to secede from the United States of America, and then later enforced harsh segregation?
When you say "the CCP is the author of said revolution"… who do you mean? The CCP isn't a person, it's a party. Do you mean the CCP leadership? And if so, who in the leadership? Everyone who's ever held leadership, or those who were in the leadership in 1968? Or do you mean the hundreds of millions of people who have been members of the Communist Party at one time or another? Or do you mean those who were in the Party at the time?
To Buxi:
to your first question, both Parties did what you said back in the day, so in that light, does that mean neither party can represent the African-American voice TODAY? Will African-Americans need their own party TODAY? My point was just that you can't say the cultural revolution is an example of potential Chinese societal instability TODAY (or any day for that matter), because that was a government-led social exercise. So as long as the government TODAY has no designs on rehashing said exercises, then the reliving of CR-style instability is not really a concern.
As for P2, I'm referring to whoever played a role back then; I'm not trying to blame Hu Jintao for it, if that's what you're suggesting.
yo says
SKC,
Just be careful in your usage then. I actually was thinking the same thing because you seemed to be referring to the CCP as a single entity that lives on forever so to speak, like the highlander 😛
"CCP plays on the threat of instability merely as a guise to oppress those who challenge its authority"
I would partially agree(or partially disagree). I would say it like this:
"CCP plays on instabilities to support the legitimacy of their authority, which has both positive and negative consequences"
To Yo:
I guess it comes down to the meaning of "is" 🙂 I thought by saying "CCP WAS the author…" suggested a reference to the guys back then; if I wanted to suggest culpability of the current crew (which I don't), I'd have said "CCP IS the author…".
I have no real objection to your version of the statement.
Hey, are you the one who referred to RECOUNT earlier? You've got a good eclectic taste in shows. I think I'm recording RECOUNT off the movie channel right now. I'll be sure to check it out.
I'm kinda hoping the CCP (at least in current form) has a slightly shorter shelf-life than the Highlander.
S.K. Cheung,
I see, I misunderstood your point, apologies.
I agree with you that it's unlikely things in China could get as chaotic as they were during the Cultural Revolution. Back in 1989, many realistically had that fear. 19 years later, I really don't.
But we have other examples that aren't quite as terrifying, but still negative… most of us don't want to duplicate the experience in Russia, Yugoslavia, and India. I personally am closely monitoring the situation in Vietnam, which has moved ahead of China in political reforms. If Vietnam does well, then that will be a very positive example for China. If Vietnam does poorly, then it will be another warning.
"CCP (at least in current form) has a slightly shorter shelf-life than the Highlander"
LOL, that's a good one 🙂
Yes, I suggested recount. I'm hope you like it. I watched it many times, great acting, loved the flow of the movie, and the way they explained the whole Chad thing… so eloquent. I think you are Canadian right? Well there is another movie that is also related to the 2000 U.S. presidential election called "Hacking Democracy" . It's a documentary about the whole di-bolt voting machine thing. It's interesting(depending on your interest in U.S. politics), if you catch it on your local cable provider, you might want to check it out, not as good as recount though.
no worries. Seems I misunderstand stuff all the time. I find humour and sarcasm sometimes difficult to project with words alone, without use of tone of voice and inflection as one would IRL.
yep, from the Great WHite North. I'm very interested in US politics…more colourful than the home-bred version. Haven't heard of the other movie…will have to look around. For now, look forward to some hanging chads…
"For now, look forward to some hanging chads…"
There's a joke in there, I'll let you find out in the movie 🙂
Oli says
@SKC
On Cultural Revolution
One aspect of the CR is that it was arguably unleashed by Mao in order to retain power in his contest with the more liberal elements (esp. Deng et al) within the CCP, who wanted to turn towards rebuilding the nation rather than going on a perpetual revolution. But by that time many within the party knew that Mao became pretty much a megalomaniac and drunk on power. Unfortunately nobody told the people that, who continued to believe in the personality cult that is Mao and who continued to support him.
Now the problem with many in the West, including some Overseas Chinese are that their perception of China and in general and the CR specifically is that it is based on a polaroid snapshop image rather than a continuing narrative. Another issue is that, from the Western perspective, which likes to see things packaged as black and white for easy/lazy commercial consumption, the CR was perpetrated by the CCP vs the people, when in fact many of the more liberal minded, often Western educated element within the CCP itself were purged (ie Deng and Paris/France educated).
Whilst among the population, the perpetrators and their victims often knew each other, in many cases were immediate family members and at the same time the roles were often switched from day to day as it reflects the powerplay that was going on within the CCPs upper echelon, so that many became both victims and perpetrators in their own minds. Consequently, many from that generation assumed a sense of collective guilt and shame at both having been victims and perpetrators, and many for their own reasons simply would not talk about it and nor would they blame the CCP as the changes the society went through since then also made them realise that the CCP today is not that of those days.
As for your comments on the other thread, rest assured that I do not consider you to be part of THE OTHERS, but rather quite the opposite. My intention for the entry China and Religion was simply to give an insight into the reasons and rationale behind China's laws and government's and people's attitude. As another poster Snow said these laws do not occur in vacuum and its in China's Constitution for a reason. Though in my explaining the reasons, some inevitably sees it as excusing and justifying the governments' actions, when you and I of course know that a declaration of the law and the enforcement of the law are often two very different thing. Therefore, the application of Western standards to a survey of religious freedom in China can only take you so far, beyond which it becomes pretty much a pointless exercise of comparing pears to apple.
Therefore that entry was intended as the basis of possibly more postings to evolve the topic and that they should be read together as an ongoing narrative rather than it being the final word on the matter and my intention is to address some of the relevant/pertinent criticisms and issues raised in the discussion in a follow-on entry. So as you can see, there IS a plan….. (well sort of anyway).
As for THE OTHERS (they know who they are), I am all for people having a different opinion, but I simply don't see the point in repeating or expanding my reasoning to minds that are already set in stone (life is too short) and which no words, but only very actual personal experience can change and I wish them all the best of luck with that.
@Oli – It should also be said that there are still not a few in China who are willing to speak up for the Cultural Revolution, or who think it was the right thing to do but went a bit too far.
FOARP I though you of all people would be in favour of free speech or does it depend only on your choice of topic and limited to those who agrees with you. If there are still some in China who are willing to speak up for the CR, so what? So what if within the confines of their experience and perception produces a rationalisation in favour of the CR? It only means that the CR is justified according to their interpretation and reasoning. Even Cao Cao has friends and supporters, for things are never clear-cut black or white and if they were, life would be too damn boring.
@Oli – I disagree with what they say not their right to say it – the Chinese government does that.
The point that I was trying to make was that whilst the families of a lot of people on this website suffered during the Cultural Revolution, there are people alive today who played their role in commiting unspeakable crimes against their fellow human beings and were never punished for what they did. Others agreed with the revolution at the time and have simply never revised their opinions about it because they have not had to – including people who have been very successful since.
Yup, boo-hoo, life sucks dosen't it? So, grow up already will ye. If those people have been very successful since, well that's their cross to bear is it not? Maybe the Chinese people know and understand more about forgiveness than you think. And should China's people and its government want to leave the whole CR issue for another generation to resolve while in this generation they concentrate on providing and affording that opportunity, who are you or anybody in the West to say otherwise? Endearing, but naive.
your description of the CR is quite consistent with the experiences others have shared here. I'm happy to be reading about it, as opposed to having lived it. Obviously, the Chinese spectrum of liberal vs conservative seems quite different from the distinctions I'm accustomed to in Canada; however, if a Chinese liberal is for modernization, transparency, and openness, then I certainly wish them better luck in today's and tomorrow's China than their predecessors enjoyed (or perhaps more accurately, endured). But I hope the drive towards those aforementioned characteristics is an ongoing one. My interest is not for this evolution to end up looking like a western model; just some form that more vigorously espouses those concepts than is present even today.
As for your other point, my point was just that it's hard to engage someone in a discussion if you don't deem it necessary to explain yourself when queries are presented.
The point that I was trying to make was that whilst the families of a lot of people on this website suffered during the Cultural Revolution, there are people alive today who played their role in commiting unspeakable crimes against their fellow human beings and were never punished for what they did.
@FOARP,
Care to be specific? Who are you speaking of specifically?
You mentioned in the (now slightly out of control) 'Pride' thread that you had never heard of Hu Jintao suffering. I don't know if you caught my reply referencing an article about Hu Jintao's father, allegedly also imprisoned and persecuted as a former merchant, dying shortly after the Cultural Revolution.
I also linked (somewhere) Xujun Eberlein's book. She describes an interview with two former Red Guards, imprisoned for two decades after the end of the Cultural Revolution. They weren't apologetic because, in their words, they punished the rightists for a few years, and then they were punished for two decades; they thought that was fair enough.
So, who are you speaking of *exactly*?
I don't suggest that there's 100% justice out there; with 1.3 billion people, I'm reasonably sure many might have slipped throug the doors. But it's a little bit like South Africa after the apartheid; how many white South Africans are without guilt? How many white South Africans were never punished for their crimes during the apartheid era? Who are you specifically suggesting deserves punishment right now, and once you start, where do you stop without imprisoning half of the urban population of China?
@Buxi – It is well known that it was the ring leaders only who were punished, many of the people who actually carried out the attacks went unpunished. Nowadays there are people in their 50's managing banks who, in their younger days, gave speeches before thousands as leaders of the Red Guards and who nowadays seem somewhat unrepentent about the whole thing – doesn't this bother people in China?
Otherwise, it's none of mine.
@Oli – Please grow up.
FOARP, it has been mentioned already that practically every family was victim as well as perpetrator, sometimes the same person at different times. What are you going to do about that? Some went around knocking down temples, while their parents were jailed in cow pens, one side of the family may have their home gutted, the other side may be destroying the property of others. Some were sent down, some died, some made the lives of others miserable. True personal stories.
I've seen the dark side of human nature. I don't think I or anyone want to dwell on it.
@SK CHeung
Thats a fair point, but as surely you must have noticed reading through these threads, there are some real trolls around whose knee-jerk reactions to any postings come from deeply held opinions that are not easily dislodged by mere words alone and admittedly I sometimes lack the patience to do so. Its like a child constantly asking "But, why daddy, why?" and I don't even have children of my own yet for crying out loud!.
As for the more constructive questions raised, I have been hoping to address them in another posting where I can weave all the issues together to expand further on the topic of religion in China. Part of the reason is so that I can firstly provide a more coherent picture of the theme rather than addressing them piecemeal thereby potentially loosing the narrative. More prosaically I am also only human you know and I do have other obligations while under the same time constraints as everybody else. Consequently don't take my silence as arrogance or indifference.
On China's modernisation
Often what people only see of China's modernisation dichotomy, ie. the new buildings, massive construction and pollution, break neck urbanisation, widening gap between the rich, new liberalism and sophistication yet continuing state oppression, interference and patronising paternalism. However, there exist a deeper level behind the scene transformation that many simply do not see or are seldom reported on, either because its not "interesting" or because the government wouldn't allow it to be reported on.
For example not many people know that China has been sending out delegations to different parts of the world to observe and research local judicial system and jurisprudence as China reform its own judicial branch. These visits included ones to the British Law Society on UK's common law system, France and Italy's use of investigative magistrates and Germany's constitutional and federal law system, just to name a few.
Nor do many people realised that since the mid-90's China have been continuously experimenting on local democracy and elections in selected rural areas just as it experimented with capitalism and regulated free-market economy in the Pearl Delta region of Shenzhen prior to rolling it out across China from the 80's onwards.
But these experiments in democracy unfortunately have also revealed the usual problems, ie votes buying, corruption, bussing and jerrymandering among others which made it impossible to role it out on a much wider scale, when other structural components are not yet in place particularly in the urban centres, ie judicial and law enforcement reforms, the necessary critical mass of sophisticated urban population to make the reforms self-sustaining, a responsible media etc. and above all the necessary money to pay for it all, ie higher salaries for police officers, judges or government workers to remove the temptation for corruption, when there are other competing demands and priorities and at the same time without loosing control of the the whole process. From my observations, sometimes I feel that its like trying to control a nuclear chain reaction.
On top of this, is also the Chinese government's implicit rejection of allowing interest groups to hijack the political process (this has a long imperial tradition and also relates to China's attitude towards organised religion, which I hope to tackle later), as it is so often the case with the prevalence of lobbyists', big business' and the old money class' involvement in American and European politics and elections (this is the socialist ideology aspect). Consequently the picture is alot more complicated than many could or are willing to appreciate, especially to those whose instinctive and repetitive default mantra is "China baaaad, West goooooood" or who has their own agenda and interest in forcing China's pace and direction of change.
@ SK Cheung
I think we should continue this to "China's Pospect for Democracy" thread.
thanks for your thoughts. I think we now better understand each other.
"knee-jerk reactions to any postings come from deeply held opinions"- I agree with this, but would note that such characteristics seem to occur on both sides of the opinion divide, even on this blog.
I'm certainly among those who've seen China develop as a dichotomy, and your last post is very enlightening. WRT legal reforms, Mexico only adopted the concept of presumed innocence last week, and won't fully implement it for another 8 years, so I guess China's slow pursuit of same is understandable (though still somewhat frustrating). Fundamentally, I'm all for a willingness to learn from others, with a view to bringing the good bits back and applying it internally where applicable.
However, it does appear to me that the pace of financial development far outstrips that of political development. China in many ways has a free market economy; the chasm between rich and poor IMO is one of the problems with such an economy. But though she exhibits the good and bad parts of a free economic system, her political system to me is still more bad than good…it's too bad that the lag time for political development might amount to decades, as others have suggested.
This is the best essay I have ever seen on this topic. Thanks!
Sum says
Chinese believe is spiritual/superstitious? Is not all religions are? Believe in One is "religion"? Believe more than one is "superstitious"? How narrow minded some people are…
Chinese believe God is every where, he takes shape in many forms. Is not that's why there are so many religions in this world? Chinese will accept any imported religion, we do not reject other people's believe so violently like some so call civilized countries…To the Chinese, the more the merry and of course, the more protection…
I personally think Religion is a mind system used by 'some people' to control their subjects. I laugh at the egotistical person who thinks Human are God's image…did you see those buzzing bees, we're more like them…buzz buzz buzz and there go a live time. Human are fools and not worth saving, but to each of his own, what ever make you happy and I am happy for you…God Bless you all.
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text:
Kirkdale residents speak of their shock after gun and ammo found in their street
Police raid house in Florence Street and arrest a 25-year-old man and 26-year-old woman
Helen Davies
Armed police found a gun and ammunition when they searched a house in Kirkdale.
Shocked residents described how they were told to stay inside their homes as officers blocked off Florence Street and carried out the raid.
Police arrived at the house around 7pm last night. One witness, who asked not to be named, said: "We weren't allowed to leave the house.
"They closed off both sides of the street.
"It was scary. The police were armed with big rifles."
She added: "They were there most of the evening until about 11pm.
"There was about four police cars and two police vans."
A spokesman for Merseyside Police said officers went to property as a result of on-going enquiries.
He said a containment was placed on the property as a precaution and, a short time later, a man and a woman came out from inside the house.
A search of the house was then carried out and officers found what they believe to be a handgun.
The firearm was recovered for further examination to establish whether or not it is a viable weapon.
A 25-year-old man and 26-year-old woman were arrested on suspicion of possession of a firearm. The man was also arrested in connection with an on-going investigation into an allegation of assault.
They were being questioned today. Detective Chief Inspector Neil Shaw, said: "This is a great result as we have taken a potential lethal weapon out of circulation and removed a quantity of live ammunition.
"These arrests and recoveries once again show that we will always take positive action with information we receive and would always encourage members of the public to provide us about the location of firearms. With their help we can keep taking guns off our streets."
Both people were taken to police stations on Merseyside for questioning by detectives.
An investigation into the full circumstances surrounding the incident is continuing.
Anyone who has any information can call Matrix Serious and Organised team on 0800 230 0600 or Crimestoppers, anonymously, on 0800 555 111.
Kirkdale

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Good chance to see Calais jungle camp dome in Coventry
Reporter: Steve Orme
Almost four years after building its first Theatre of Hope in the Calais jungle camp, charity Good Chance is to hold a free, day-long arts extravaganza in Coventry.
Founders Joe Murphy and Joe Robertson said, "since Good Chance began we've existed to provide fast injections of art and hope in the most difficult of circumstances.
"As those circumstances have evolved, so has our work and we're proud to support incredible artists from around the world as they hone and develop their art, and speak with powerful and important voices about the world we inhabit together.
"In an increasingly atomised and dangerous world, spaces dedicated to welcome and expression which don't shy away from the challenges and opportunities of living together are more essential than ever."
Dome in a Day will be staged on Saturday 22 June in Millennium Place as part of the Coventry Welcomes Festival.
Originally built in Calais, the Good Chance dome has not been seen in the UK since summer 2016 when it popped up on London's Southbank for nine days and nights with Encampment, a festival of performances, workshops and discussions.
Many of the artists Good Chance first met in the Jungle camp feature in the Dome in a Day line-up including Coventry collective Highly Sprung who will be running a physical theatre workshop, the première performance from Good Chance's Coventry-based Change the Word collective and puppetry from Beirut theatre-makers Kahraba Collective.
There will also be theatre, storytelling and poetry workshops led by Coventry-based Zimbabwean poet and visual artist Laura Nyahuye and Good Chance resident artist Connie Treves.


text:
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import uk.ac.cam.gpe21.droidssl.mitm.crypto.FixedKeyManager;
import uk.ac.cam.gpe21.droidssl.mitm.crypto.cert.CertificateUtils;
import uk.ac.cam.gpe21.droidssl.mitm.crypto.key.KeyUtils;

import javax.net.ssl.KeyManager;
import javax.net.ssl.SSLContext;
import javax.net.ssl.SSLServerSocket;
import javax.net.ssl.SSLSocket;
import java.io.IOException;
import java.nio.file.Paths;
import java.security.KeyManagementException;
import java.security.NoSuchAlgorithmException;
import java.security.PrivateKey;
import java.security.cert.X509Certificate;
import java.util.concurrent.Executor;
import java.util.concurrent.Executors;

public final class TestServer {
	public static void main(String[] args) throws IOException, KeyManagementException, NoSuchAlgorithmException {
		System.setProperty("java.net.preferIPv4Stack" ,"true");

		X509Certificate leaf = CertificateUtils.readCertificate(Paths.get("cert.crt"));
		X509Certificate ca = CertificateUtils.readCertificate(Paths.get("ca.crt"));

		X509Certificate[] chain = new X509Certificate[] {
			leaf, ca
		};

		PrivateKey key = KeyUtils.readPrivateKey(Paths.get("cert.key"));

		KeyManager keyManager = new FixedKeyManager(key, chain);

		TestServer server = new TestServer(keyManager);
		server.start();
	}

	private final Executor executor = Executors.newCachedThreadPool();
	private final SSLServerSocket serverSocket;

	public TestServer(KeyManager keyManager) throws NoSuchAlgorithmException, KeyManagementException, IOException {
		SSLContext context = SSLContext.getInstance("TLS");
		context.init(new KeyManager[] {
			keyManager
		}, null, null);
		this.serverSocket = (SSLServerSocket) context.getServerSocketFactory().createServerSocket(12345);
	}

	public void start() throws IOException {
		while (true) {
			SSLSocket socket = (SSLSocket) serverSocket.accept();
			executor.execute(new EchoRunnable(socket));
		}
	}
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


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Think global, act local and feel at home.
With almost 2 million room listings in 190 countries, Airbnb has grown exponentially since its humble beginnings in a San Francisco living room nearly 10 years ago. But as the room-letting company continues to disrupt the travel world, its success comes with the threat of diminishing its raison d'etre – the experience to travel like a local, in a personal way.
Airbnb's strategic positioning for their lodging inventory is to "Belong Anywhere". By focusing on local travel experiences, shared friendships between hosts and guests, and providing unique stories, travellers can live up to the brand promise of "people, place, love".
How do travellers perceive our brand across different markets?
What are our brand strengths and weaknesses?
How does the customer journey map out across various markets?
How is Airbnb performing versus our competitors?
Equipped with these answers, Airbnb will apply Isentia's insights to adapt its overall marketing strategy, communications and content across their respective markets.
We built API crawlers to pull data across thousands of channels across major platforms such as Facebook, Blogs, Forums, Instagram, Twitter, Websites and Online News. This is an essential component of the research process as it helps ensures that the data is collected across all travel-relevant platforms, making the study more relevant and targeted for Airbnb.
Isentia used (a) automated Natural Language Processing and (b) Human Validation of sample data to achieve a 95 per cent confidence of data accuracy. This is crucial in data hygiene as the automated sentiment analysis utilised by most social listening tools cannot, detect or recognise local slangs, sarcasm, various grammatical nuances and culture variations. Hence, the accuracy level at which social listening tools are able to accurately pinpoint or determine the prevailing sentiment of a discussed topic is probably likely to be only at 30% - 50%. With human validation of a sample size, Isentia helps ensure a higher accuracy of data sampling for the study.
For this research, Isentia leveraged social and digital data from 1 April 2015 to 30 June 2015, which are seasonally high travel peaks and hence, when travel-related conversations will likely to be most prominent. From there, key metrics of analysis were derived at a regional scale for the identified target markets.
Isentia aggregated social data across key measurements, such as volume, sentiment, channel reach and penetration in order to benchmark the online performance of Airbnb across different markets.
By aggregating travel-related data across social media channels, we were able to uncover Airbnb's Share of Voice (SOV) and top competitors across each market based on volume of competitor brand mentions and sentiment analysis.
Based on the volume of social data across the markets, we were able to identify the top channels and channels breakdown for each country and how netizens engaged on the top platforms.
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text:
Tag: Jamie Foxx
Oscar Watch: Soul
Disney/Pixar's second 2020 release Soul has long been seen as their most viable Oscar contender over this spring's Onward. Today's buzz after it held the first screening at the London Film Festival confirms that. The jazz infused tale from Pete Docter and Kemp Powers is being called two familiar adjectives in the studio's lexicon – heartfelt and crowd pleasing. Soul, after experiencing delays due to the COVID pandemic, is slated for a Disney+ debut on Christmas Day.
Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx, Tina Fey, Questlove, Phylicia Rashad, Daveed Diggs, and Angela Bassett, several reviews are already claiming it's in the upper echelon of Pixar pics. Docter is no stranger to Academy love. All three of his directorial efforts – Monsters Inc., Up, Inside Out – were nominated for Best Animated Feature. The latter two emerged victorious and Up is one of three animated flicks to achieve a Best Picture nomination.
The question is not whether Soul will make the final cut in Animated Feature. It absolutely will and it's absolutely the strong front runner to win. A better debate is whether this is the fourth animated effort to contend for the big prize. I don't believe that's automatic. Inside Out also garnered sterling critical reaction in 2015 and fell short of that achievement. However, Soul has solidified its position as a legit hopeful.
Additionally, expect Best Sound and the Original Score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross to be in the mix. Bottom line: Soul helped it cause to play beyond Animated Feature. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
toddmthatcher	Oscar Predictions	Leave a comment October 11, 2020 1 Minute
Cannes Do Spirit
The Cannes Film Festival, originally scheduled for May in the French Riviera, was canceled this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, an announcement today confirmed that the long running fest will exist in some form. And like everything in 2020… it's a little confusing. A lineup announcement of 56 pictures was put out as being in the Cannes fold. However, these titles will premiere at various other events scheduled later in the year such as the Toronto and Telluride festivals, among others.
Awards watchers know that Cannes is a fertile breeding ground for Oscar hopefuls. Just last year, Bong Joon-Ho's Parasite won top Cannes prize the Palme d'or and eventually won Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Some other titles (among many) that premiered at Cannes and got Oscar attention include Apocalypse Now, The Piano, Pulp Fiction, and The Pianist.
So what are some significant 2020 Cannes contenders that could vie for Oscar gold? I'll give you a quintet and we start with Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch. The latest effort from the acclaimed filmmaker is his live-action follow-up to 2014's The Grand Budapest Hotel which nabbed a leading nine nominations at that year's Oscars. The cast is filled with familiar faces and many Anderson regulars including Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Frances McDormand, Timothee Chalamet, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Willem Dafoe, and Anjelica Huston. It is obviously high on the list for potential players throughout awards season.
Ronan also costars in Ammonite, a period drama from director Francis Lee. Her costar is Kate Winslet and between the two of them they have 11 Academy nominations. Expect plenty of chatter as to their viability in the performance races.
Steve McQueen is premiering not one, but two pictures with the Cannes label – Lovers Rock and Mangrove. The director saw his 2013 pic 12 Years a Slave awarded Best Picture. Both of his new titles focus on race relations in the United Kingdom.
Finally, Pixar is in the mix with Soul. Originally scheduled for summer, it was pushed back to November and is rightfully seen as a top tier contender in the Animated Feature derby. Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx and Tina Fey, Soul is directed by Pete Docter. He's responsible for two of the studio's most acclaimed entries and Oscar winners – 2009's Up and 2015's Inside Out.
I would suspect that the 51 other Cannes selections could wind up in the mix as well (especially in the International Feature Film race). Time will tell, but the Cannes label will carry on in 2020 (albeit under unforeseen and unique circumstances).
toddmthatcher	Oscar Predictions	Leave a comment June 3, 2020 2 Minutes
2019 SAG Awards WINNER Predictions
Another major Oscar precursor holds their ceremony this evening with the 26th Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. This particular show has definitely served as a massive indicator where the Academy might go with the acting winners. As for Best Picture, not so much.
So let's get into it as I make my projections for what will happen tonight!
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Lupita Nyong'o (Us), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Analysis: Nyong'o is the odd one out here as she didn't nab an Oscar nomination. A win here by Johansson and Theron (both are possible) could set up a narrative as being Zellweger's legit competition. Over the past decade, the SAG and Oscar winner have matched seven out of nine times. The outliers include last year when Glenn Close took the SAG for The Wife and Olivia Colman won the Academy Award for The Favourite. Tonight could also solidify Zellweger's work as Judy Garland in the biopic. My suspicion is that it happens.
PREDICTED WINNER: RENEE ZELLWEGER
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Analysis: A Best Actor derby where ten performers were vying for five spots means 2 men here didn't make the Oscar cut: Bale and Egerton. Therefore, I see this as a three person showdown between DiCaprio, Driver, and Phoenix. The Oscar/SAG linkage here is significant as eight of the last nine victors went on to take the Academy Award. 2016 was the only exception when Denzel Washington got the SAG for Fences and Casey Affleck was the Oscar recipient for Manchester by the Sea.
Driver could be the larger threat, but this season is shaping up to be a sweep for Phoenix. That's where the smart money is tonight.
PREDICTED WINNER: JOAQUIN PHOENIX
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Analysis: There is a 7 for 9 SAG/Oscar match in this category this decade. Foxx didn't get the Academy attention. Hanks is beloved, but his movie has underwhelmed elsewhere. Pacino and Pesci should split votes. And the narrative continues for Pitt to have a terrific awards season.
PREDICTED WINNER: BRAD PITT
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Analysis: During the 2010s, there was an 8 for 8 SAG/Oscar match here from 2010-2017. Yet 2018 was the exception and a rather enormous one. Emily Blunt's victory last year for A Quiet Place was a stunner since she had no Oscar nod. And the Academy's winner (Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk) didn't get a SAG nod.
Could this set up a situation where Lopez, snubbed by the Academy, could walk to the podium tonight? I'm tempted to make that upset pick. However, Dern is unquestionably the favorite and I just can't bet against her.
PREDICTED WINNER: LAURA DERN
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Bombshell, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Analysis: Now here is where it gets interesting! Unlike the individual acting races, there isn't as much of a history with this category matching up with Oscar's Best Picture. This decade it's happened four out of nine times. For the 21st century, it's nine out of nineteen times.
You don't see 1917 listed here and with its Golden Globe Best Drama and PGA victories, it's the soft front runner for Oscar. An omission here doesn't mean much as the last two Academy BP recipients (The Shape of Water, Green Book) missed here. Other than Bombshell, the nominees here are all nominated for Best Picture. Any of them winning tonight could position that film as the main competitor to 1917. That said, I don't discount Bombshell taking the prize this evening as it received the greatest number of SAG nods.
Parasite is the only nominee where none of its individual performers were nominated. You could argue that the voters simply saved for their votes for this race. Jojo has its hardcore fans. The Irishman boasts a trio of acting legends.
Ultimately, I'm leaning toward the sprawling cast of Hollywood. Yet I'll freely admit that this category seems wide open.
PREDICTED WINNER: ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
And there you have it! I'll have a post up recounting how I did and what it means for the Oscar race soon enough…
toddmthatcher	SAG Awards	Leave a comment January 19, 2020 3 Minutes
2019 FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions
And it comes down to this…
After months and months of speculation, dozens of blog posts, and constant shifting around, these are my final predictions for the 2019 Oscars. There's been thousands of words written about the races so I'll keep it simple here.
The nominations are out Monday. I'm picking nine pictures to get recognition (there can be anywhere from 5 to 10 and 8-9 is usually the sweet spot). For each category, I'm also naming an alternate and second alternate.
Lastly, you can be sure come Monday that I'll have a recap up with reaction and my results. Here we go folks!
ALTERNATE – The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Knives Out
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Todd Phillips, Joker
ALTERNATE 2 – Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
ALTERNATE – Awkwafina, The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Lupita Nyong'o, Us
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
ALTERNATE – Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
ALTERNATE 2 – Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
ALTERNATE – Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Song Kang-Ho, Parasite
ALTERNATE 2 – Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
ALTERNATE – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
ALTERNATE 2 – Hustlers
ALTERNATE – 1917
ALTERNATE 2 – Uncut Gems
Best International Feature Film
ALTERNATE – Beanpole
ALTERNATE 2 – Honeyland
ALTERNATE – Klaus
ALTERNATE 2 – Abominable
Best Documentary Feature
ALTERNATE – Midnight Family
ALTERNATE 2 – Maiden
ALTERNATE – The Lighthouse
ALTERNATE 2 – Portrait of a Lady on Fire
ALTERNATE – Downton Abbey
ALTERNATE 2 – The Irishman
ALTERNATE 2 – Marriage Story
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
ALTERNATE – Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
ALTERNATE 2 – Dolemite Is My Name
Best Production Design
ALTERNATE – Parasite
ALTERNATE 2 – Joker
ALTERNATE – Ford v Ferrari
ALTERNATE 2 – Jojo Rabbit
"Glasgow" from Wild Rose
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from Rocketman
"Into the Unknown" from Frozen II
"Spirit" from The Lion King
"Stand Up" from Harriet
ALTERNATE – "I'm Standing with You" from Breakthrough
ALTERNATE 2 – "A Glass of Soju" from Parasite
ALTERNATE – Joker
ALTERNATE 2 – Rocketman
Best Sound Mixing
ALTERNATE – Avengers: Endgame
ALTERNATE 2 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Alita: Battle Angel
ALTERNATE 2 – Gemini Man
And that means my final tally for pictures getting the following number of nominations goes like this:
11 Nominations
1917, Joker, Little Women
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, Rocketman
Avengers: Endgame, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory Apollo 11, Atlantics, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
toddmthatcher	Oscar Predictions	1 Comment January 10, 2020 4 Minutes
2019 Oscar Predictions: January 6th Edition
There are years when the Golden Globes don't seem to have much of an impact on my Oscar predictions. That could still hold true at the end of the day, but last night's ceremony did so and that especially applies to the Best Actor derby and my numeric rankings in general with other top races. Let us count the ways…
The surprising wins for 1917 as Best Drama and Sam Mendes as its director is a real story. The timing could not be more perfect as the World War I action drama opens wide this weekend. In Picture, it rises from 5th to 4th. For Mendes, he goes from 4th to 3rd and that's at the expense of Martin Scorsese.
Joaquin Phoenix hits the #1 slot in the ultra competitive Best Actor competition over Adam Driver, who's been first for many weeks. Perhaps more significantly, Taron Egerton's victory over Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Murphy in the Musical/Comedy race at the Globes places in my predicted five for the first time (he goes from 10th to 5th!). I've also put Antonio Banderas back in and that means Robert De Niro and Jonathan Pryce are on the outside looking in.
In Original Screenplay, Quentin Tarantino vaults to #1 over Noah Baumbach.
And an important programming note… this is the last time you will see my weekly predictions for 2019 in this manner. With nominations out a week from today, I will have a FINAL predictions post up this weekend (likely Friday or perhaps Saturday). As of this moment, here's how I have it all shaking out!
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Parasite (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Farewell (PR: 12)
11. Bombshell (PR: 11)
12. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
13. Knives Out (PR: 14)
14. Uncut Gems (PR: 15)
15. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
4. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 6)
7. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 9)
8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
5. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 9)
10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong'o, Us (PR: 7)
8. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)
9. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
10. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: 9)
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 7)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
9. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 10)
10. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
6. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell (PR: 7)
8. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 8)
9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
5. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 7)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
9. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 5)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
10. Bombshell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Corpus Christi (PR: 6)
5. Atlantics (PR: 4)
6. Beanpole (PR: 7)
7. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
8. The Painted Bird (PR: 5)
9. Honeyland (PR: 8)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature Film
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
6. Funan (PR: 9)
7. Klaus (PR: 6)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
9. Abominable (PR: 7)
10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 10)
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. For Sama (PR: 3)
3. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
4. One Child Nation (PR: 4)
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Midnight Family (PR: 9)
8. Maiden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
10. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 8)
5. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 8)
7. The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
9. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marriage Story (PR: 9)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
9. Judy (PR: 6)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 10)
10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
6. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 7)
8. 1917 (PR: 10)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)
7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)
9. The King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 9)
1. "Into the Unknown" from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. "Glasgow" from Wild Rose (PR: 4)
4. "Spirit" from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. "Stand Up" from Harriet (PR: 3)
6. "A Glass of Soju" from Parasite (PR: 7)
7. "Daily Battles" from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
8. "Letter to My Godfather" from The Black Godfather (PR: Not Ranked)
9. "I'm Standing with You" from Breakthrough (PR: 9)
10. "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
"Speechless" from Aladdin
8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
10. Us (PR: 10)
1. The Lion King (PR: 1)
6. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
7. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 8)
9. Captain Marvel (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures garnering the following numbers for nominations:
1917, Marriage Story
Parasite, Rocketman
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell
Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Corpus Christi, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
toddmthatcher	Oscar Predictions	Leave a comment January 6, 2020 6 Minutes
Just Mercy Box Office Prediction
After opening in limited release over the holidays, true life legal drama Just Mercy expands nationwide next weekend. From director Destin Daniel Cretton, the pic stars Michael B. Jordan as attorney seeking to free wrongfully imprisoned Jamie Foxx. The supporting cast includes Brie Larson, Rob Morgan, Tim Blake Nelson, and Rafe Spall.
Mercy premiered at the Toronto Film Festival back in September to mostly positive reviews. It stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, it never managed to achieve any significant awards chatter with the exception of a SAG nod in Supporting Actor for Foxx. He might still get an Oscar nomination (even though that's iffy), but that should be the extent of any Academy attention. More buzz for top tier nominations could have assisted with the box office.
In the Christmas weekend, this got a per theater average under $30,000 on four screens. That's less than other rollouts for prestige projects. I will estimate that Mercy barely doesn't reach double digits as it hits over 2000 venues.
Just Mercy opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
For my 1917 prediction, click here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/01/1917-box-office-prediction/
For my Like a Boss prediction, click here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/01/like-a-boss-box-office-prediction/
For my Underwater prediction, click here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/02/underwater-box-office-prediction/
toddmthatcher	Box Office Predictions/Results	Leave a comment January 1, 2020 January 8, 2020 1 Minute
2019 Oscar Predictions: December 30th Edition
There are two weeks to go before Oscar nominations come out and it's been two weeks since I've updated my predictions. There's not much in the way of major movement in the top races, but the numbers have shifted in some cases. Let's break it down:
In Picture, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood vaults to #1 in what looks like a three-way competition between it, The Irishman, and Parasite.
Bong-Joon Ho rises to first in Director over Tarantino and Scorsese.
There is a change in Actor as Jonathan Pryce is back in over Antonio Banderas. Pain and Glory takes another hit in Original Screenplay as I've taken it out and put Knives Out back in.
Check in later this week for my predictions on winners for the Golden Globes, which airs this Sunday. The plan is to have Oscar predictions next Monday and then a post up on Saturday (January 11) with final predictions on the races.
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 10)
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)
9. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: Not Rankled)
10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
9. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)
10. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
7. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite
9. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Predicted Nominees
10. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Funan (PR: 10)
10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
8. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)
9. Midnight Family (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Knock Down the House (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
8. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Apollo 11 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 10)
10. 1917 (PR: 9)
7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
10. Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
8. "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
9. "I'm Standing with You" from Breakthrough (PR: 10)
10. "Speechless" from Aladdin (PR: 7)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 10)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
And that equates to these films getting the following numbers of nods:
Little Women, Parasite
Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes
Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Painted Bird, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
toddmthatcher	Oscar Predictions	Leave a comment December 30, 2019 6 Minutes
It's been another action packed week on the Oscar predicting front! Since last Monday, the SAG Award nominations came out and today – we saw numerous categories reveal their shortlists. This is when races are whittled down to 10 or 15 possible nominees and it applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. As always, there were surprises. These include "Beautiful Ghosts" from Cats unlisted from Song, The Irishman absent from Makeup and Hairstyling, and Ad Astra and The Aeronauts left out for Visual Effects. You'll notice that in these categories – there's more dropouts than normal and that's why.
As for the top line races, we have changes:
I am finally estimating that nine movies will be nominated for Best Picture instead of ten and that puts The Two Popes on the outside looking in.
The bad news for Popes continues as it's Leonardo Dicaprio in and Jonathan Pryce out. I still have Robert De Niro clinging to the five spot, despite missing the Globes and SAG. We shall see if he remains in the fold as time goes on.
In Actress, it's Cynthia Erivo in and Awkwafina out. I've got Lupita Nyong'o in the sixth position after a strong week of precursor love. She's knocking right on the door.
Scarlett Johansson is back in for Supporting Actress to the detriment of Annette Bening. Like the SAG Awards, that means I'm projecting a double nomination for ScarJo. That would mark her first and second nominations.
In Original Screenplay, I've got Pain and Glory back in over Knives Out.
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
15. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 10)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
10. Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
Taylor Russell, Waves
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
6. Those Who Remained (PR: 10)
7. Corpus Christi (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Painted Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
9. Maiden (PR: 10)
10. Aquarela (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cats (PR: 10)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
9. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
9. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Us (PR: 8)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)
6. "Daily Battles" from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
7. "Speechless" from Aladdin (PR: 7)
9. "A Glass of Soju" from Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. "I'm Standing with You" from Breakthrough (PR: 8)
"Beautiful Ghosts" from Cats
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
10. John Wick – Chapter 3: Parabellum (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Irishman (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 7)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
8. Captain Marvel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: Not Ranked)
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers for nominations:
1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women, Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Pain and Glory, Rocketman
Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, The Two Popes
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
2019 SAG Awards Nomination Reaction
The Screen Actors Guild voters definitely had some surprises in store this morning as they unveiled their nominations for the ceremony airing on January 19th. And the biggest bombshell was… the performance of Bombshell itself, which led the major nods with four. This was followed by The Irishman, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at three.
Some quick takes before I break it down race by race. It was a bad morning for Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Little Women, and The Two Popes as they received zero nominations. For Dolemite, I thought this might be the branch that would give it some attention. It wasn't to be.
The nominations today have made Best Actor more confusing and opened up even more the possibility of two actors that I didn't have listed as alternates factoring into the Oscar mix. All in all, on a morning that had genuine surprises, I went 16 for 25 on my picks. Here's how it happened:
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Motion Picture
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: The absence of Marriage Story here is unexpected. Less so is the omission of the aforementioned Dolemite. I didn't have Bombshell or Parasite named here. The Parasite nod could be construed as a strong sign that it's a real contender for Best Picture for that other awards ceremony. This race probably comes down to Irishman or Hollywood and the latter likely has the edge.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Analysis: It was Bale and Egerton that I didn't have listed as my first or second alternate. Those spots were instead designated for Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory and Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems. This opens up Bale and Egerton to greater Academy attention. It's also worth noting that Robert De Niro's work in The Irishman has now been snubbed by the Golden Globe and SAG voters. This makes his road to Oscar considerably bumpier. As I suspect it will be with the Oscars, I suspect it's Driver vs. Phoenix with this category.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Lupita Nyong'o (Us), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Analysis: No 5 for 5 projections for this blogger today and this is the only one where I named four correctly. It's Nyong'o in over Awkwafina in The Farewell and that could assist with her Oscar cred after already picking up some critics awards. While Zellweger might be called the soft front runner, the Bombshell love certainly increases the possibility of a Theron win.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Analysis: I mentioned yesterday in my predictions post that it might be foolish to leave out Hanks and I was proven right. The genuine surprise here is Foxx, who has been falling under the radar screen as of late (I didn't even have him in my top 10 of possibilities in my Oscar estimates on Monday). Expect that to change. Hanks and Foxx are in over Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse (he missed the Globes too) and Anthony Hopkins for The Two Popes. As I said with the Globes, a Pacino/Pesci split could clear the way for Pitt's trip to the podium.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Analysis: One item I did call was the double nomination for Johansson. I did not anticipate Kidman getting in along with her Bombshell costar Robbie. In fact, I didn't predict either of them as I went with Florence Pugh in Little Women and Zhao Shuzhen in The Farewell. Both of those actresses also missed Globe nods. Dern and Lopez could find themselves in a battle for this one. I also wouldn't totally rule out the chance for a ScarJo upset as voters may want to honor her double nod (as they did here with Emily Blunt in 2018 for A Quiet Place).
I imagine these SAG Award announcements will impact my thinking when I update my Oscar projections on Monday. Stay tuned…
toddmthatcher	SAG Awards	Leave a comment December 11, 2019 3 Minutes
2019 Oscar Predictions: November 25th Edition
Two key screenings took place over the week with significant Oscar implications and there's some movement in major categories to discuss:
1917, the World War I epic from Sam Mendes, finally availed itself to critics and the feedback is extremely positive. While I'd had it projected for Picture and Director for some time, its numbers (3 and 2 respectively) are the highest yet.
Clint Eastwood's Richard Jewell screened at AFI Fest. Some reviews indicate it's a contender in Picture, but I'm not quite there. It does vault back in the 15 possibilities at 13 and both Paul Walter Hauser in Actor and Kathy Bates in Supporting Actress are now in the mix, but not projected in the top five.
Bombshell is back in my ten projected Picture nominees over Ford v Ferrari.
Zhao Shuzhen finally makes the cut in Supporting Actress, displacing Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit.
Tom Hanks slides to fifth in Supporting Actor after the so-so box office performance of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I suspect he could fall out with Joe Pesci (The Irishman) and Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) hot on his heels.
While my five Best Actor contenders remain the same, this is the most packed field in ages. I could legitimately see any of my ten listed thespians getting in, as well as Christian Bale (who falls to 11th).
11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
13. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
15. Rocketman (PR: 14)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 10)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: Not Ranked)
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 9)
10. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
9. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Monos (PR: 8)
5. And Then We Danced (PR: 4)
6. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
10. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
3. Maiden (PR: 6)
5. For Sama (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sea of Shadows (PR: 8)
10. The Kingmaker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Little Women (PR: 10)
7. Judy (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)
10. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
4. "Beautiful Ghosts" from Cats (PR: 3)
7. "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)
9. "Glasgow" from Wild Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
10. "Together From Afar" from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)
"Show Yourself" from Frozen II
9. The Irishman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: 9)
And this all equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:
Joker, Parasite
Bombshell, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, Pain and Glory
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, Aladdin, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, The Lion King, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Us, Weathering with You
toddmthatcher	Oscar Predictions	Leave a comment November 25, 2019 7 Minutes


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