Assuming no past history in linear algebra or actual research, An advent to MATLAB® Programming and Numerical tools for Engineers lets you increase strong computational challenge fixing options by utilizing numerical tools and the MATLAB® programming atmosphere. half One introduces basic programming strategies, utilizing uncomplicated examples to place new techniques speedy into perform. half covers the basics of algorithms and numerical research at a degree permitting you to speedy observe ends up in useful settings.
This e-book fills a protracted status want for a easy advent to Cognitive Grammar that's present, authoritative, finished, and approachable. It provides a synthesis that attracts jointly and refines the descriptive and theoretical notions built during this framework over the process 3 many years. In a unified demeanour, it incorporates either the conceptual and the social-interactive foundation of linguistic constitution, in addition to the necessity for either sensible rationalization and specific structural description. beginning with the basics, crucial facets of the idea are systematically laid out with concrete illustrations and cautious dialogue in their cause. one of the themes surveyed are conceptual semantics, grammatical sessions, grammatical structures, the lexicon-grammar continuum characterised as assemblies of symbolic buildings (form-meaning pairings), and the usage-based account of productiveness, regulations, and well-formedness. The theory's relevant declare - that grammar is inherently significant - is thereby proven to be possible. The framework is additional elucidated via program to nominal constitution, clause constitution, and complicated sentences. those are tested in vast standpoint, with exemplification from English and various different languages. in keeping with the theory's common ideas, they're mentioned not just by way of their structural characterization, but in addition their conceptual worth and sensible motivation. different concerns explored contain discourse, the temporal size of language constitution, and what grammar finds approximately cognitive techniques and the development of our psychological world.
Build a number of absolutely useful video games in addition to a online game engine to take advantage of for programming mobile phone and cellular video games with Beginning cell phone video game Programming! The integrated CD offers the software, code and portraits essential to entire all workouts coated within the chapters. Beginning mobile phone online game Programming demystifies instant online game programming through offering transparent, functional classes utilizing the J2ME video game API. you are going to the best way to use the preferred cellular programming language, Java, to construct compact video games which can run on any Java-enabled gadget, together with cellphones, pagers and hand-held pcs. additionally, you will discover ways to upload a dash reveal, create a demo mode, hold song of excessive rankings, and attempt, debug, and installation your games.
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While you're new to programming with ASP and are searhing for a high-quality creation, this is often the publication for you. built by way of laptop technology professors, Microsoft ASP.NET Programming for absolutely the newbie teaches the foundations of programming via uncomplicated video game production. you are going to collect the abilities that you just desire for simpler ASP programming purposes and should find out how those abilities should be positioned to take advantage of in actual global eventualities. better of all, by the point you end this ebook, it is possible for you to to use the fundamental rules you have realized to the subsequent programming language you take on.
This educational an easy creation to educate non-programmers the way to customise their paintings atmosphere; it may well even be used as an advent to programming fundamentals. It comprises a variety of workouts and pattern courses; the writer additionally walks you thru the particular resource code of numerous GNU Emacs instructions. A convenient reference appendix is included.Emacs Lisp is a straightforward, entire, and strong programming language. it's the construction block of GNU Emacs, that is an built-in improvement surroundings with specific gains for scanning and parsing textual content in addition to for dealing with a number of documents, buffers, screens, home windows, and sub-processors.
Between Java's many appealing positive aspects as a programming language, its object-oriented nature is vital to making robust, reusable code and purposes which are effortless to take care of and expand. to exploit those functions, you are going to needn't purely to grasp the syntax of the Java language, but in addition to realize a realistic figuring out of what items are all approximately, and extra importantly, the way to constitution a Java program from the floor as much as utilize items. With starting Java items: From innovations to Code, you'll research all 3!
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The Employment Law Department of Young Conaway Stargatt & Taylor, LLP , is the largest in Delaware. For more than twenty-five years, our attorneys have represented private and public employers in every facet of management-side employment law, including discrimination and harassment claims, wrongful-discharge, workforce reduction planning, immigration issues, and restrictive-covenant enforcement. The Department also works with clients on traditional labor matters, including union avoidance and decertification training, developing strike plans, stroke control and resolution, collective bargaining, and arbitration.


your amulet would summon an evil princess? Why would it even do that? SOFIA: I don't know. The amulet only does bad things when... Oh, no. PRINCESS AMBER: What? SOFIA: The amulet put a curse on you.
PRINCESS AMBER: Put a curse on me? Why? SOFIA: Because those are the rules: "With each deed performed for better or worse, a power is granted, a blessing or curse." You stole the amulet from me, so it cursed you by bringing Princess Ivy here. PRINCESS AMBER: This is horrible. I've never been cursed.
I don't want to be cursed. What are we going to do? SOFIA: I don't know. But there is one person who knows more about the amulet than I do. PRINCESS AMBER: Who? CEDRIC: And that was your card, right? Ohh! This is impossible. SOFIA: Mr. Cedric, we need your help.
CEDRIC: You wouldn't be here if you didn't, would you? SOFIA: An evil princess took my amulet. CEDRIC: Your amulet was stolen? How? SOFIA: Well, first Amber stole it.
PRINCESS AMBER: Borrowed it. CEDRIC: You had the amulet too? SOFIA: And then the amulet cursed her by summoning Princess Ivy. PRINCESS AMBER: Who's going to destroy it. SOFIA: Unless we can find a way to stop her.
CEDRIC: First of all, there is no need to worry. The amulet of Avalor is virtually indestructible. SOFIA: Oh, good. CEDRIC: Except... SOFIA: Except what? CEDRIC: The amulet of Avalor is magically protected and cannot be destroyed by ordinary means. Only the flame of Everburn the elder dragon is hot enough to melt it.
SOFIA: Who's Everburn the elder dragon? CEDRIC: He is the oldest of the talking dragons who live atop the blazing palisades. But luckily, no one else knows about him except us. PRINCESS AMBER: What's that sound? SOFIA: Ivy's butterflies!
PRINCESS AMBER: They heard everything! They're spying on us! CEDRIC: Oh! Now you can worry. PRINCESS IVY: Come on! What is it? Can't you see I'm busy? What? Oh! Well done, my darlings. Now find me a flying coach. We have an old dragon to visit.
PRINCESS AMBER: What are we going to do now? CEDRIC: Stop shaking me for starters. Ohh! Right. If you want to stop Princess Ivy, you, dear girl, must find a way to break the curse that the amulet put on you.
PRINCESS AMBER: Me? Why me? CEDRIC: You are the one who's cursed, are you not? PRINCESS AMBER: Oh! SOFIA: What does she need to do? CEDRIC: Well, princess Amber stole the amulet from you. So it seems to me that if princess Amber returned the amulet to you, the curse would be broken, now, wouldn't it? PRINCESS AMBER: But how am I supposed to get the amulet from Princess Ivy? She's probably halfway to the blazing palisades by now. SOFIA: Then you have to go after her.


This is a set of short stories and essays about living in New York. The quality of them ranges from outstanding to merely good. The ones I found less interesting tended to be too cerebral, and used (to me) obscure references to music and art that I was not familiar with. "The Last of the Metrozoids" is heartbreaking and brilliant.


text:
Death Penalty Essay
I chose to examine the death penalty debate between President Obama and Alan Keyes in 2004. At that time I basically stated that I sided with President Obama mostly due to Mr. Keyes claiming that the people who have/had the power to apply the death penalty were no better than the "slaveowners" of yesterday. While I see where he's coming from, I don't really agree with that point of view, but I'm not necessarily against to what he's saying either. That particular debate piqued my interest to dive into this highly debatable topic even further than what I did the first time. With that, I'm going to explain some different point's of view from individuals that claim pro life and ones that still claim pro life, but are also pro choice.
Some of the arguments that I've seen thrown out there from the pro life advocates are as follows: 1. Capital punishment costs much more than keeping ...view middle of the document...
Could possibly get out and do the same thing all over again. 4. Overpopulation in the prison system. 5. "Justice is better served" (USLegal.com, 2013).
Both parties have very valid and sound arguments. It's hard to sit here and say who is right and wrong because in my eyes I believe it is mostly opinion as to what the better method of punishment is overall. Like both Mr. Keyes and President Obama stated in their 2004 debate, I think the death penalty is very situational. There are vast differences between crimes that are done in the heat of the moment and crimes that are premeditated. In some ways the death penalty does come off as being very barbaric, especially when the United States is compared to other parts of the world that claim democracy. As of now, the only other democratic country that still supports the death penalty is Japan (cnn.com, 2014). When looking at it from that point of view, it is very hard to defend the thought process behind capital punishment to society, no matter how many valid points are made. The singular fact that there are only two democratic countries in the entire world supporting the death penalty, makes it seem as if we are way behind in the times.
With all that being said, I can't really say that I disagree with agree completely with either party. I do believe the death penalty is warranted in certain scenarios, but being that those scenarios could be based off of bias opinion, generally stating that the death penalty is warranted would be wrong to say. What might convince me to say that the death penalty is just, another might say the complete opposite. Everybody has their own threshold for different situations and also different emotions towards different situations. If I had to pick between the two and basing my justification on the facts that I have presented, I would sway to the side of pro life more so than pro choice. Even though I know that if I were presented with a situation that might have my emotions in a state of disarray, my opinion would most likely change.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


This master bath remodel turned a small space into a lavish and functional suite. A modified floor plan borrowed space from an adjoining bedroom and closet to make room for new amenities. His and hers identical vanities line the walls of the entrance and lead into a marble detailed bathing area. A tall built-in cabinetry piece with antiqued mirrored doors provide extra storage and is placed across from a custom designed tile rug. The end result is a completely revitalized master suite that fits perfectly into the historic home's styling.
See this home's kitchen remodel: Chicago Renovation Project Revives Gold Coast Brownstone.


My own hubris dictates the belief that I am the first person to have thought of this thus wanting to protect the intellectual property.
In nature, blueberries are commonly found in soils with granite parents or new soils ground by glaciers out of rock, thus related to the previous point. They are also found in areas that have a continuous flow of acidifying organic matter like the high-tannin oak leaves. I will be zeroing in here for my strategy.
When walking along a forest in spring, a pattern in the fallen leaves that persisted through winter becomes apparent: oak. The high levels of water soluble tannins found in the leaves wards off decomposition until precipitation leaches out most of the acid. This action is what provides the blueberries with their ideal habitat. Similarly, this is why many sources recommend mulching blueberries with oak leaves. A rebuttal is usually issued stating that composted oak leaves are pH neutral but fails to account for the acid leaching rainfall that is needed in order to compost the leaves. Where does that leached acid go?
Now I am confident you know where this post is going. In an effort to limit off farm inputs, I want to utilize the many oak trees on the farm to acidify water for irrigation. Luckily for the blueberries, my well water tested slightly acidic which is unlucky for my pipes that corrode as a result. Municipal sources always buffer water to an alkaline pH to slow down the corrosion of piping in the infrastructure so take this into account if you are watering pH sensitive plants with a municipal water supply.
This would appear to be a more biological approach to acidifying the soils slowly over time. I'll be sure to monitor the pH of the tea to make sure the idea has merit and if it does prove successful, the readings should ensure that I don't burn the roots with tannic acid that hasn't been diluted enough.
If this idea works, it will certainly be more biological than my current approach of elemental sulfur soil amendments, cottonseed meal fertilization and vinegar infused irrigation. I will expand on my full blueberry-acidifying-soils strategy tomorrow!
Dan, with all the vineyards in VA, think about grabbing spent grapes and using them for their tannins to mix into the soil? Not sure it will be the same, but could be easier to get old grapes from vineyards that are just going to get tossed anyway and then mix them in with the soil…. Not sure it will work, but just an idea.
Another really interesting idea (and it makes sense, which is the kind of idea I like 🙂 I may even spend 20 seconds on Google.


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Hot water supply boiler(s) and storage tank(s) shall have a 5 year limited warranty against corrosion as outlined in the written warranty. Note: Custom arrangement also available. Consult factory.


Usage: Use the hospital flash card in conjunction with the hurt and doctor flash cards. We hope you never have to use this sign but if you do it will certainly make things easier for everyone.
As baby gets more advanced you can introduce him or her to other medical signs like dentist and nurse, you can use feet and other anatomical references to help your baby or toddler as they navigate medical care.
For an instructional video and tutorial on how to make the hospital sign, see here.
Related Flash Cards: Doctor, Sick, Help, Medicine.


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Upon graduation from CSU Sacramento, Parry followed his family footsteps settling in Newport Beach to begin his Real Estate career. For the first 15 years, he worked as a loan officer for 2 major Savings and Loans. His responsibilities included loan generation, underwriting and loan servicing. After mastering the loan business, Parry applied his real estate knowledge to purchasing and remodeling single family homes in the Orange County area. His strong eye for design made each project fun and rewarding. In order to strengthen this direction, he obtained his Real Estate License. Parry prides himself on his communication skills and ability to connect with others creating rewarding clients and friendships as well. His focus as your agent is to create a real estate experience that is not only memorable, but one that binds a solid relationship for the future. He joined Harcourts Newport Properties, a global company with a team approach emphasizing strong values and principles for their agents. Upon your first meeting with Parry, you will notice his professional service and dedication. Imagine a real estate experience where you are proud to share with friends. Call Parry today and let him show you what the Harcourts promise is all about.
Born in Southern California, Wesley Ryan knows the ins and outs of the coastal communities in Orange County. Wesley is detail-oriented, professional and has a deep enthusiasm for his profession. He is a California native, with an enthusiastic personality who enjoys meeting new people, traveling and being on the ocean. As for him, there is nothing more fulfilling than helping others and what a better way to do so than by selling your home, or finding your dream house.


You have all heard about them, you've all probably tried to find them but you probably just don't have the time to search for them through all the recruiter ads and articles to find that perfect free CV.
In this months article I am going to show you how to harness the power of the WWW, using search engines, so that the information you want comes back quickly and accurately.
These three engines all have good sized web site indexes and all of them allow us to construct our searches using advance search techniques.
The first thing we must consider are the words we could use to identify a CV on the web. Worlds like cv and vitae are normally a good starting point.
We will use www.altavista.com/web/adv for our search. This is the advanced search section for Altavista.
If you enter these basic criteria and run the search you will see that you get in access of 27,000 UK based results. Some of the results are not exactly what we were looking for and this is common in this type of search until you add some additional search criteria.
Supposing we are looking for the CV's for Web Designers, typically you would look for a software developer or software engineer. Lets add these terms to our search.
Now we have almost 3,000 CV's for developers. Now we can start adding the skill sets we are looking for to give us a more manageable set of results.
(url:cv OR url:vitae OR url:resume)AND (developer OR designer OR programmer) AND java AND html AND "C++"
Now we have almost 500 CV's for UK based Web Developers with JAVA, HTML and C++ as their skill set.
Try experimenting with the skill sets and industry sectors. You will be amazed at the information that is freely available on the WWW if you are willing and patient enough to take a look.


text:
namespace base {
class DictionaryValue;
}

namespace extensions {

namespace chrome_manifest_urls {
const GURL& GetDevToolsPage(const Extension* extension);
}

// Stores Chrome URL overrides specified in extensions manifests.
struct URLOverrides : public Extension::ManifestData {
  typedef std::map<const std::string, GURL> URLOverrideMap;

  URLOverrides();
  ~URLOverrides() override;

  static const URLOverrideMap& GetChromeURLOverrides(
      const Extension* extension);

  // A map of chrome:// hostnames (newtab, downloads, etc.) to Extension URLs
  // which override the handling of those URLs. (see ExtensionOverrideUI).
  URLOverrideMap chrome_url_overrides_;
};

// Parses the "devtools_page" manifest key.
class DevToolsPageHandler : public ManifestHandler {
 public:
  DevToolsPageHandler();
  ~DevToolsPageHandler() override;

  bool Parse(Extension* extension, base::string16* error) override;

 private:
  const std::vector<std::string> Keys() const override;

  DISALLOW_COPY_AND_ASSIGN(DevToolsPageHandler);
};

// Parses the "chrome_url_overrides" manifest key.
class URLOverridesHandler : public ManifestHandler {
 public:
  URLOverridesHandler();
  ~URLOverridesHandler() override;

  bool Parse(Extension* extension, base::string16* error) override;

 private:
  const std::vector<std::string> Keys() const override;

  DISALLOW_COPY_AND_ASSIGN(URLOverridesHandler);
};

}  // namespace extensions

#endif  // CHROME_COMMON_EXTENSIONS_CHROME_MANIFEST_URL_HANDLERS_H_

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
module Easymon
  class ActiveRecordMysqlWriteableCheck
    attr_accessor :klass

    def initialize(klass)
      self.klass = klass
      @query = "SELECT @@read_only for UPDATE"
    end

    def check
      check_status = database_writeable?
      if check_status
        message = "@@read_only is 0"
      else
        message = "@@read_only is 1"
      end
      [check_status, message]
    end

    private
      def database_writeable?
        klass.connection.execute(@query).to_enum.first.first.to_i == 0
      rescue
        false
      end
  end
end


text:
A concerning discovery from the minds of 287,000 mobile consumers, on GDPR's 1st birthday
Seems like just yesterday GDPR came into effect. Marking a historic new chapter.
Consumer data, mishandled for decades, can no longer be used without the user's consent.
An end to appalling displays of data abuse and rogue marketing. An end to consumer mistrust.
What a difference a year makes.
Or does it? How do consumers really feel since GDPR came in to effect?
We had to find out. So we conducted some extensive research.
Not the type that consists of 2,000 – 10,000 survey respondents. That's not enough to grasp the reality of the situation.
We asked 287,000 consumers, from six countries, their opinions towards data, privacy, mobile marketing, and advertising. Making it the largest piece of research of its kind ever conducted.
The results are in, and they make for wide-eyed reading.
The Reality Report: Consumer Attitudes Towards Mobile Marketing 2019, will be available for you to download free from July 9th. But before we release it in its entirety, we wanted to share some alarming GDPR related snippets.
Consumers Are Still In The Dark Over Their Data
One year on from GDPR, despite the publicity, and best efforts of organizations and lawmakers, only 8% of consumers feel they now have a better understanding of how their data is used by the companies who collect it. 8%!? That's low.
Digging deeper, results show that over one half of consumers feel they have no better understanding of how their data is being used since GDPR was introduced. And over a third don't even know what GDPR is.
No legislation is perfect. But such a dramatic disconnect between the policy and the people is disappointing news for lawmakers.
For marketers, it's a wake-up call.
One year in, the grace period is over. GDPR sanctions will fall. And fines will become more frequent. Organizations have a responsibility to inform users about how their data will be used. Not only to avoid financial implications, but also to build consumer trust, and help demonstrate the mutual value-exchange that comes with sharing data.
As is stands today, however, consumers are not getting it. Why?
GDPR has not been taken seriously enough
Based on what we've seen so far, most would say that's true.
But organizations can hardly be accused of sleeping on the job. Since GDPR came into effect, job listings for data Protection Officers (DPOs) have shot up by 700% as companies gear up for compliance. In the USA and UK alone, an estimated $9bn has been spent on GDPR preparation.
$9bn is a serious amount of money. And if you're reading this, chances are you or your company have put in a lot of effort into adopting practices and processes to become compliant.
Lack of consumer understanding, therefore, is not entirely caused by the fact that GDPR hasn't being taken seriously enough. It's that organizations time and money has been mainly spent on internal changes.
That's all absolutely required. But consumer clarity requires external focus.
And that begins with consent notices. The first line of communication.
It's this – vital interaction – that hasn't been taken seriously enough.
Results from our research prove it…
78% of consumers do not read consent notices
Alarming indeed. But hardly surprising when the average amount of time it takes to read one is 18 minutes.
Packed with obscure legalese and sprawling clauses, the majority of consent notices are too long and too opaque. They're not accessible to the average reader. They don't help consumers understand how organizations use their data. In fact – they're failing to inform the very people they are designed to protect.
Consent notices should use plain language, that's easy to understand, quick to consume, and published in plain sight. Empowering users with clarity, to make an informed choice.
But currently, that's not the case.
As long as it remains this way, organizations will never earn consumer trust. And that is bad for the internet, and bad for business.
In a post-Cambridge Analytica world, where guards are up and consumers don't know how their data is being used, trust is a competitive advantage. It's a route to sustainable business growth.
As an industry, it's time to stand up and take note of what our consumers have told us.
And they've told us a lot – all 287,000 of them – in The Reality Report: Consumer Attitudes To Mobile Marketing 2019.
It's available for free from July 9th. Send us your details below and we'll ensure you're one of the first to receive it.
Max Pepe, VP Marketing


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[ November 17, 2020 ] Tropical Storm Polo	Cruise Ship Weather
[ November 12, 2020 ] Tropical Storm Iota	Cruise Ship Weather
[ November 10, 2020 ] Tropical Storm Theta	Cruise Ship Weather
[ November 3, 2020 ] Tropical Storm Odalys	Cruise Ship Weather
[ October 29, 2020 ] Tropical Storm Eta	Cruise Ship Weather
[ October 24, 2020 ] Tropical Storm Zeta	Cruise Ship Weather
[ October 17, 2020 ] Tropical Storm Epsilon	Cruise Ship Weather
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HomeCruise Ship WeatherTropical Storm Odalys
November 3, 2020 Janet Cole Cruise Ship Weather
Post Tropical Storm Odalys Track 1900 Hours November 5 2020
Tropical Storm Odalys – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05, 2020
Odalys has been devoid of any significant convection within 100 n mi of the center for more than 12 hours, and the system no longer meets the satellite-based criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on an expected gradual spin down of the circulation, which is supported by a Dvorak current-intensity satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt. An earlier 1725Z ASCAT-A pass contained a small patch of 34-kt winds located northwest of the center, and there is currently no convection in that same sector of the cyclone.
Post-tropical Odalys is currently located over marginal 26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures and within a very hostile vertical wind shear regime. The shear is expected to increase from the current 35 kt to more than 40 kt by 24 hours, which should prevent any significant and/or persistent convection from redeveloping near the low-level center. As a result, Odalys should continue to weaken and dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. A westward motion should continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest or southwest by Friday afternoon, with that motion continuing into the weekend until Odalys dissipates. The NHC official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track model TVCE.
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odalys.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT  06/0300Z 18.6N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
12H  06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05, 2020
Deep convection associated with Odalys has largely dissipated over the past 6-9 h with just a remnant swirl of low clouds surrounding the center. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB continue to decrease and a recent ASCAT pass confirmed that the wind field has begun to spin down, with maximum sustained winds near 35 kt.
As anticipated, the combination of high southwesterly vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt and dry mid-level air around 40 percent as diagnosed from ECMWF-SHIPS guidance has lead to a collapse of deep central convection. Even though sea surface temperatures under Odalys remain marginally warm around 26 C, vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air are forecast to become even more hostile over the next 24 h. Therefore, the latest official forecast now anticipates Odalys to become a remnant low in 24 h. Degeneration to a remnant low could occur as quickly as this evening if organized deep convection does not redevelop soon.
The initial motion of the cyclone is estimated near 280/6 kt, and a due westward motion is expected within the next few hours. Odalys is now a shallow cyclone, and will primarily be steered by low-level northeasterly trade wind flow, gradually bending from a west to southwest heading over the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast track shows a slightly sharper turn to the the southwest now that the cyclone has become more shallow, but the official track remains near the track guidance consensus.
INIT  05/2100Z 18.5N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
12H  06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05, 2020
Corrected to say dissipated for the 72 h forecast.
Odalys appears to be losing the battle against high vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment as an overnight convective burst has been sheared off to the northeast. Only a small region of cloud tops colder than -60 C remains about 100 nm away from the exposed low-level circulation center. The latest satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB have decreased and it is possible that Odalys has already started weakening. However, the current intensity will be held at 45 kt for this advisory out of respect for the overnight ASCAT data.
The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, and dry air will continue to envelop the circulation. Marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 C may be able to support occasional convective bursts, but these should be short lived and disorganized, and the low-level wind field should gradually spin down without any organized convection. The latest intensity forecast shows Odalys becoming a remnant low by 36 h, but this may occur sooner if convection does not refire near the center.
Odalys is gradually bending more westward at 285/6 kt as it decouples from convection associated with the mid-level center and begins to be influenced primarily by the low-level steering flow. A turn due west and then west-southwest is expected over the next 24 h following the northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one and is near the track guidance consensus.
12H  06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04, 2020
Odalys has devolved into a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk of the deep convection displaced to the northeast of the now fully exposed low-level circulation center. The initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB. A 04/2142 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 40 kt also supports this intensity.
Odalys is now moving west-northwestward, or 295/09 kt. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn more westward during the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west as Odalys degenerates into a shallow low pressure system. By 48 hours and beyond, the remnant low is forecast to move west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of low-level northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple-consensus track model, TVCE.
The current southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear of near 30 kt is forecast to steadily increase to 40 kt during the next 72 hours. Sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 26 deg C will also help hasten the weakening process during that time, resulting in Odalys becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours, followed by dissipation in 96 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the simple-consensus intensity models IVCN and ICON.
The center of Odalys has become easier to find this afternoon. A well-defined low-level center has become apparent on visible satellite imagery, about 50 nm southwest of the deepest convection. Despite this somewhat disheveled appearance, a series of ASCAT passes earlier this afternoon found winds of 35-40 kt in a band north of the center. Allowing for a bit of instrument undersampling, and blending the latest SAB and TAFB satellite estimates, the initial intensity was raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory.
Odalys continues to move northwestward this afternoon at 315/15 kt. The track forecast philosophy has remained largely unchanged. The storm will continue to head northwest in the short-term, situated between a deep-layer ridge over Mexico and a mid to upper-level trough located to its northeast. This same trough will likely generate high enough vertical wind shear to cause the low and mid level centers of Odalys to completely separate in the next 24 h, resulting in the low-level center of Odalys to bend west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of the low-level easterly trade winds. The latest track guidance is in good agreement on this evolution with only minor speed differences after Odalys becomes a shallow vortex and only small adjustments were made to the official forecast track.
Odalys may maintain its current intensity over the next 12 h if it is able to maintain active downshear convection. Thereafter, the southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase above 35 kt in the latest GFS-based SHIPS guidance. This should import very dry mid-level air near the center and will likely choke off any remaining convective bursts. Odalys is expected to become a shallow remnant low on Friday afternoon, if not sooner.
INIT  04/2100Z 17.7N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
12H  05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
36H  06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
48H  06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04, 2020
Over the last 6 h Odalys has exhibited a bursting pattern with cloud tops colder than -70C occurring to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. The center itself has been a bit difficult to locate overnight but is estimated to be on the southwest edge of this recent convective activity. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB were 35 kt and 45 kt respectively, but the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt for this advisory out of respect for overnight ASCAT data that supported the lower value and the fact that the structure of the cyclone hasn't changed much since then.
Odalys is now moving to the northwest with a similar forward motion 315/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue in the short term as the storm is being steered between a mid-level ridge centered over Northern Mexico to its northeast and a deep-layer trough centered to its northwest. After 24 h, Odalys is expect to become a shallow system as its convection gets stripped away by the deep layer trough. Its track will bend back west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of northeasterly trade wind flow associated with a low-level anticyclone off the southwestern US coast. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement of this evolution and only minor modifications were made to the forecast track owing to the slightly further north initial position.
While small fluctuations in intensity associated with periodic convective bursts are possible today, southwesterly vertical wind shear is already increasing over the system and will soon be importing very dry mid-level air over the low-level circulation. This will ultimately lead to the tropical storm's demise as it moves over marginally warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast was held at the current intensity for the first 24 h with gradual weakening thereafter. Odalys is expected to become a remnant low by Friday and dissipate entirely by the end of the weekend.
36H  06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
120H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03, 2020
Satellite images indicate that Odalys has not changed much since genesis earlier today. The cyclone still has a large curved band on the western side of the storm, but there is little organized convection to the east of the center. The overall circulation remains quite broad and appears elongated from northeast to southwest. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 kt at 0000Z, and the ADT and SATCON numbers from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are about the same. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.
Odalys could strengthen slightly overnight and early Wednesday while it remains over warm water and in moderate wind shear conditions. However, the models agree that any opportunity for strengthening should end in about 24 hours when Odalys moves into a region of strong southerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear. The combination of the increasing shear, cooler waters, and drier and more stable air should cause Odalys to begin weakening by Wednesday night or early Thursday. The cyclone is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday, but that could occur even sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in line with the majority of the guidance.
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion, but at a slower pace, is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow Odalys should be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one.
The low-pressure area well south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has become significantly better organized today. A curved band of deep convection is noted to the northwest of the low-level center, and a second weaker band is located to its southeast. Satellite-derived wind data indicate the low-level center is still somewhat broad, but it appears to have enough definition to justify starting advisories as a tropical cyclone. Recent ASCAT-B data show numerous 30+ kt wind barbs, with a couple barbs peaking at 33-34 kt in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Considering known under-sampling issues with this data source, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. Thus, the system has become a tropical storm, and advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Odalys.
Weak to moderate vertical wind shear and sufficient oceanic heat content may support modest strengthening during the next 12 h or so. By 24-36 h, strong southwesterly deep-layer shear associated with an approaching shortwave trough to the northwest, along with intrusions of drier mid-level air, will induce a steady and perhaps rapid weakening trend. The system is forecast to weaken to a depression by 48 h and a remnant low by 96 h, but this could occur even sooner if the stronger shear values noted in the SHIPS guidance are realized. The GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests the system could be devoid of deep convection as early as day 3 of the forecast period.
The storms estimated motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. A slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as Odalys is steered northwestward by a low- to mid-level ridge centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should gradually slow down and turn westward as this ridge weakens due to the aforementioned shortwave trough. By 72 h, the storm will be steered southwestward by another low- to mid-level ridge building to its northwest. The track models are in decent agreement, and the official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope closest to the track consensus aids.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Tue Nov 3, 2020
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Satellite imagery indicates showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over 700 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continue to become better organized. If this development trend continues, a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Mon Nov 2, 2020
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a little over 700 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM PST Mon Nov 2, 2020
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have increased slightly in coverage since yesterday near a broad area of low pressure located over 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Mon Nov 2, 2020
1. A broad area of low pressure located over 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions remain favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM PST Sun Nov 1, 2020
1. A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM PST Sun Nov 1, 2020
1. A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Sun Nov 1, 2020
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 31, 2020
1. A broad trough of low pressure is forecast to develop southwest of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Oct 31, 2020
1. A broad trough of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Oct 31, 2020
1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south or southwest of the coast of southern Mexico by Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Oct 30, 2020
1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south or southwest of the coast of southern Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 30, 2020
1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of southern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Oct 30, 2020
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 29, 2020
1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of southern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Oct 29, 2020
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Oct 29, 2020
1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as the system moves westward or west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Oct 28, 2020
1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as the system moves westward or west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 28, 2020
1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as the system moves gradually westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Oct 28, 2020
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development over the weekend into early next week as the system slowly moves westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 27, 2020
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week. Environmental conditions should be conducive for some gradual development this weekend and into early next week as the system slowly moves westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2020
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Environmental conditions should be conducive for some gradual development this weekend and into early next week as the system slowly moves westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 27, 2020
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Some further development will be possible thereafter and continue through the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Oct 27, 2020
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Some further development will be possible thereafter and continue through the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
If this storm system is named, it will be named Tropical Storm Odalys.
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Home / History / British History / From World War to White Heat: the RAF in the Cold War / Introduction
Emmett Sullivan introduces this week's discussion on the development of Britain's independent nuclear deterrent.
EMMETT SULLIVAN: Welcome back to From World War
to White Heat: The RAF in the Cold War. This week, we're going to deal with the period, principally, of 1945 to 1962, from Britain's involvement with the development of the atomic bombs used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki right the way through to the cancellation of the Skybolt programme by President Kennedy in December of 1962. Now, if you go and look at Winston Churchill's history of the Second World War, very early on he talks notably about Britain's involvement in the Manhattan Project, a co-development along with the United States and Canada, and talks about the atomic bombing of Japan as the knockout blow.
So, this change in weapons technology changes the perception of what countries can do to end wars and ultimately leads to a change in the role of the RAF. Now, what we are seeing in the period after 1945 is the decision to develop an independent British nuclear weapon, both an atomic bomb and then later a hydrogen bomb, as the Americans decide not to share further nuclear secrets after the Manhattan Project has ended. We then see the commissioning of a new fleet of strategic bombers. As with America and the Soviet Union, there's never any real question that the initial delivery system for Britain's nuclear deterrent was going to be the RAF.
So, we see the origins of the V-force– the Valiant, the Victor, and the Vulcan. And beyond that, we're going to look at the change in the technologies that were applied at the time, particularly the equipping of the V-force with missiles which can deliver nuclear weapons at some considerable distance. And this is possibly the significance of Skybolt in the story we're going to tell today, because Britain was heavily committed to the development of this American project. And when Kennedy cancelled it in December 1962, it left a void in the way that Britain was going to modernise and keep relevant its way of delivering nuclear weapons.
Now, as a result of that decision in America and subsequent negotiations between Kennedy and Macmillan, by 1968, we have a change in Britain's role when it comes to the delivery of nuclear weapons. No longer is the RAF the front line. By 1968, it's the Royal Navy in Polaris-missile-capable submarines which embody Britain's potential use of nuclear weapons for strategic reasons. So, as a result of a political decision, a decision to cancel a programme in America, there was a substantial shift in the way that Britain conceives of how it is going to maintain its nuclear force. So, from 1962, the RAF is looking at a modernisation of its force through new missiles. By 1968, the strategic role is with the Royal Navy.
And while the RAF retains a tactical nuclear role, it is no longer the principal force that is going to deliver nuclear weapons at time of war or major conflict. So, with those thoughts in mind, let's move on and deal with the first segment for this week's course.
Over the course of this week we will be looking at:
Britain's decision to become an independent nuclear weapons state;
The establishment of a strategic bomber force to deliver the deterrent;
The development of an air-launched missile force to extend the effectiveness of the bomber force.
Name the aircraft in the video.
Please also identify the aircraft we feature in this week of videos in the discussion below. If you recognize them, let us know! If you have any memories of these types of aircraft, please share them.
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This content is taken from
Royal Holloway, University of London online course,
From World War to White Heat: the RAF in the Cold War
Ross and myself will be using the RAF Museum exhibits as a backdrop to our discussions. The website to the museum gives plenty of information on all of the collections.
Introduction by Lauren Semple and Emmett Sullivan
Lauren and myself set the stage for this week's discussion of Britain's independent development of a nuclear deterrent. We have two interviews in the videos which follow over this week of work – with Seb Cox and Andy Marson – which add detail to our discussions.
From the Manhattan Project to Skybolt
This week's focus is on the period from 1945 to 1962, from the end of World War Two up until the cancellation of the Skybolt programme by Kennedy, during the height of the Cold War.
As a recap, during World War Two Britain was one of the three partners involved in the Manhattan Project, a programme led by the United States, alongside Canada, that focused on researching and developing the world's first nuclear weapons that were ultimately dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of the war.
Initially, Britain had a more developed and advanced nuclear programme than the United States, circa 1941, but the US effort into nuclear research and development quickly overtook its British equivalent. This prompted Britain to aid America in their project in lieu of their own nuclear development.
An important conference was held in Quebec from 17-24 August 1943, where it was agreed between Roosevelt and Churchill that cooperation on nuclear development existed between the two countries, and this would continue after the war.
However, as we will discuss in more detail in the next section, Britain was effectively forced out of the Manhattan Project by the McMahon Act* of 1946, which stated America would no longer share any information regarding atomic weapons with any other country, leading Britain to pursue their own independent nuclear programme. If you are interested in following up on the Quebec Conference, Yale University's Avalon Project gives the agreement between Britain and America on 'tube alloys' – the British code for atomic development.
Understandably, with the procurement of atomic and (later) hydrogen bombs came a shift in the way that warfare was viewed, and the role of the Royal Air Force in Britain became pivotal, not only in their nuclear programme, but as the main line of defense for the country. As the only conceivable and practical way to deliver nuclear weapons in 1945 was to drop them from planes, the RAF became fundamental in Britain's independent nuclear programme, which led to the development of the V- Force.
The Vulcan, Valiant and Victor became crucial for the RAF during a large proportion of the Cold War period, and we can see how nuclear technology evolved alongside the V-Force, up until the creation of the Polaris programme which saw the Royal Navy become the main line of nuclear deterrents with the advancement in submarine-based weapon systems from 1968 onwards.
*(Although, at one point Emmett/I mispronounce 'McMahon' for something similar … but still wrong. Sorry. Moving on….)
This content is taken from Royal Holloway, University of London online course


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