Auto Show in New York was host of the official 2018 Lincoln Navigator debut. This is surely the SUV that is able to make the market astonishing. It is way more luxury than ever before and it is surely equipped with more than amazing functions and features. Navigator is definitely one of the classiest SUV ever available on the market and with all the improvements which are known, it`s going to be even better this time. Let`s figure out what is that makes new Navigator that special.
For all of those that haven`t been in New York on their Auto Show, we`re here to make new 2018 Lincoln Navigator closer to you. His astonishing exterior design is surely something that can separate him from the crowd of others similar SUVs. Great thing about his exterior is that he`s going to lose some weight. Overall estimation is that he`s going to be around 100kg which is more than enough to increase his performances. His front fascia will be improved and redesigned a bit more than in previous generation.
It`s going to have wider grille which will be made entirely using chrome. Overall shape isn`t going to be changed but he`s going to be a bit bigger than before. Wheels on new 2018 Lincoln Navigator will be bigger than before which can make him go easier off-road but so far, we haven`t seen any person that will like to take this beauty on some muddy roads. All the lights are improved and they`re going to use newly developed LED lamps which are great because they are using minimum required energy.
Interior design of new 2018 Lincoln Navigator isn`t something we aren`t used to. This time, Lincoln will try to keep it recognizable and due to that, they won`t make some drastic changes inside.
There will be better seats inside. They`re going to have better lumbar and better sides support. In addition to that, heating and cooling option are included even in basic trim level while massage option is included in some higher trim levels, the most expensive ones. New 2018 Lincoln Navigator will have different instrument board, with larger touchscreen placed on the top of it. Because this display will be larger, we know that there will be less buttons present on it. When it comes to the functions installed inside, we know that Lincoln`s engineers and designers will try their best to create perfect balance between safety and entertainment functions so they still don`t want to reveal any of them.
Only one engine is going to be available for new 2018 Lincoln Navigator. That is 3.5-liter V6 twin turbocharged unit. This one can supply new Navigator with 380 horsepower and 460 lb/ft as maximum torque amount. This time, this engine will work in pair with either 6-speed manual or 6-speed automatic transmission system, it`s up to you to choose. No matter what of them you choose, AWD mode will be available. Fuel consumption is estimated to 15/21 mpg city/highway.
Starting price for new 2018 Lincoln Navigator will be $66.000 and we can`t say that he`s going to be released before the beginning of 2018 because he can`t be.


Which paths do scientists have to take to be successful in their studies? How did the Göttingen based physicist Stefan Hell overcome the resolution limit in the field of light microscopy? And why was he rewarded with the Nobel Prize for chemistry? We invite you into the world of sciences and the Nobel Prizes with our exhibition. Welcome to on/off. The Nobel Prize and the Boundaries of Science!
The exhibition will be accompanied by a rich programme of talks, film screenings, theatre plays, a science slam, guided city walks and public tours of the show. We also offer widespread activities for kids, school groups, and students.
Website of the "Tagungs- und Veranstaltungshaus Alte Mensa"


How come you know you're not abused?
When everything is lost, what is left to give in?
Our freedom cannot be won"
I am the genius of my breed."
A part of human debris?"
What is beyond all good when it dies?
Will history repeat itself in the end?
In their system for days."
Thanks to crystalic for sending these lyrics.


Demonstrates how to unzip a particular file contained within a .zip archive to a Chilkat stream.
'  Find the entry to be unzipped to a stream..
'  There are three ways we can unzip (inflate) to a stream.
'  1) Set a sink file on the stream object and call UnzipToStream synchronously.
'     This unzips to the stream's sink (which is to simply unzip to a file in the filesystem).
'     directly from the stream.
'  3) (not shown in this example) Unzip to a stream object that is the source of something else.
'  Case 1: Unzip to a file by setting the sink of streamA to a file.
Response.Write "
" & Server.HTMLEncode( entry.LastErrorText) & "
"
'  Case 2a: Uzip to a stream asynchronously.
'  Each call to ReadSb appends to the contents of sb.
'  Case 2b: Uzip to a stream asynchronously and emit output while reading.
Response.Write "
" & Server.HTMLEncode( s) & "
"


text:
Search can help you find News, People, Programs, and more...
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Birzeit University Commemorates Late Director of 'Arna's Children'
The Birzeit University Cinema Club commemorated late "Arna's Children" documentary film director Juliano Mer-Khamis on April 24, 2013. Juliano was killed in Jenin on April 4, 2011 by a masked man.
"Arna's Children" is a 2004 Dutch-Israeli documentary film about a children's theater group in Jenin refugee camp, in the northern occupied West Bank, that was established by Arna Mer-Khamis, the director's mother, an Israeli Jewish political and human rights activist.
The film portrays the lives of Arna and the theater children members: Ala el-Sabagr, Zakaria Zubeidi, Daud Zubeidi, Majdi Shadi, Haifa Esteti, Nidal Swetti, Yussef Swetti, Mahmoud Kaneri, Khairia Fakhri and Ashraf Abu-Alheji. It won "Best Documentary Feature" at the 2004 Tribeca Film Festival.
As years pass, director Juliano returns to the refugee camp back to look for these children that were part of his mother's life and found that three of them had been killed while resisting the Israeli military, and two children had been imprisoned.
Juliano was born in Nazareth to Arna, who was Jewish, and Saliba Khamis, who was a Christian Palestinian. When Juliano served in the Israeli army as a paratrooper, Saliba refused to speak to him for a year. The filmmaker used to describe himself as "100% Palestinian and 100% Jewish."
Civil society organizations condemn Israel's raid into campus, abducting 5 students
Law institute publishes 22nd Palestine Yearbook of International Law
Media Development Center joins Global Investigative Journalism Network
Right to Education Campaign denounces the arrest of students by Palestinian security forces
Birzeit University leads nationally in 2021-2022 URAP ranking
and get the latest news and updates from Birzeit University directly in your inbox.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


CrazyLister is very easy to use and does create outstanding eBay listings, only limited to your individual creativity and the tools CrazyLister provides. I have enjoyed exploring the options available and as of yet- have no suggestions for improving it. THANKS!!


text:
package org.linkedin.util.clock;

/**
 * @author ypujante@linkedin.com
 *
 */
public class ClockUtils
{
  /**
   * Converts the object into a timespan. If already a timespan then simply return the object.
   * Otherwise call {@link Timespan#parse(String)} on t.toString(). Works well for
   * long and String
   *
   * @return a timespan (null if t is null)
   */
  public static Timespan toTimespan(Object t)
  {
    if(t == null)
      return null;

    if(t instanceof Timespan)
    {
      return (Timespan) t;
    }

    return Timespan.parse(t.toString());
  }

  /**
   * Computes the end time = now + timeout
   *
   * @param timeout (see {@link #toTimespan(Object)})
   */
  public static long toEndTime(Object timeout)
  {
    return toEndTime(null, timeout);
  }

  /**
   * Computes the end time = now + timeout
   *
   * @param clock can be null to use system clock
   * @param timeout (see {@link #toTimespan(Object)})
   * @return 0 if
   */
  public static long toEndTime(Clock clock, Object timeout)
  {
    Timespan t = toTimespan(timeout);
    if(t == null)
      return 0;
    if(clock == null)
      clock = SystemClock.INSTANCE;

    if(t.getDurationInMilliseconds() == 0)
      return 0;

    return t.futureTimeMillis(clock);
  }

  /**
   * Constructor
   */
  private ClockUtils()
  {
  }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Specifications Nikon D3100 DSLR Camera For Beginners Affordable Price – This Nikon D3100 is really a DSLR camera on your growing in number wedding photographer and also comes with a reasonably priced price tag, and it is the actual successor towards previous series Nikon D3000. Having many different cutting-edge technological innovation, makes it simple to look at pictures beneath almost any disorders which has a captivating top quality. This camera comes with approximately age 14. only two huge pixel solution together with DX-format CMOS sensor possesses involved 18 : 55mm lens. Document your current cherished occasions together with Whole HD top quality. With its sleek and stylish design and style, it's simple to concentrate on thing at any time and also anywhere. Having an array of various other superior capabilities, the actual viewfinder image and also develop excellent picture quality while using the Nikon D3100.
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You can openly opt for the concentration position area, since you can find 11 concentration items can you opt for. Ã, Â Conduct make up and also examine the actual images by means of the actual LCD display screen together with 230, 000 dept . of transporation, that may furthermore provide you with access to the actual camera selection method together with quick control. There are also adjusting the actual perfection for the display screen to help you discover benefits much more distinct and also sharp images with this report as well as outdoors.
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text:
Vutrisiran Now Under Review for Approval in Europe for FAP Treatment
by Marta Figueiredo PhD
In FAP News Today.
https://bionewsfeeds.com/2021/09/20/vutrisiran-now-under-review-for-approval-in-europe-for-fap-treatment/
The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has agreed to review Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' application requesting the approval of vutrisiran, its second-generation RNA interference (RNAi) therapy candidate for familial amyloid polyneuropathy (FAP). Hereditary ATTR (hATTR) amyloidosis, which includes FAP, "is a rare, rapidly progressive, debilitating and fatal condition and we are delighted that the EMA has agreed to review the regulatory submission for vutrisiran based on the positive 9-month data from the HELIOS-A Phase 3 study," Rena Denoncourt, vice…
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text:
ISC Paris Business School
About ISC Paris
5 good reasons to choose ISC Paris Business School
Our urban campus
The 3-year program
Internship periods
MBA & MSc
Short-term programs
Discover and study in Paris during summer
Summer Session Luxury Products Management
Summer Session International Business & Marketing
Bachelor Program Admissions
Master Grande Ecole Admissions
M.Sc & MBA Admissions
International Students Campus life
Exchange Student Handbook
Tailor-made programs
Program in Georgia
EMBA program in Shanghaï
Tuition fees & how to apply
Conferences & Publications
Recruitment & Internship
ISC Paris Business School comes to meet you! Check cities and dates on the map
Established in 1963, ISC Paris Business School is committed to providing business students with the high quality management skills necessary to operate and perform in a global environment.
ISC Paris Business School is part of the highly selective French "Grandes Ecoles" recruiting system, which groups higher education establishments that operate outside the sphere of Universities. In France, only 50 management schools are entitled to run a "Grande Ecole" program with a Masters in Management, and a mere 30 of these are, like ISC Paris Business School, members of the prestigious Conférence des Grandes Ecoles.
The Masters Degree awarded by ISC Paris Business School is endorsed by the French Ministry of Education. After obtaining all the required national credentials in France, we are currently paving the way for international recognition and certifications.
ISC Paris Business School is located in Paris, where the majority of leading French multinational corporations are based. The school benefits from the business reputation of the French capital, a major location where professional forums, conferences, and trade fairs are held.
It follows that studying at ISC Paris Business School can open doors to multiple careers in a variety of areas, including those involved in fashion, finance, high tech, hospitality, information systems, international trade, luxury goods, retail distribution, technology, as well as multimedia.
All our programs in Business and Management Studies give our students access to unlimited competences which will surely boost them in their later careers. With our network of more than 155 partner universities in over 51 countries, we not only provide unlimited career opportunities for our students, but also encourage them to discover a diversity of cultures in order to gain a broader international perspective. Most of our programs are bilingual – English / French. In a concern to pursue our ambition of being accredited worldwide, we offer international programs entirely in English.
We are sure that if you are ambitious to have an international career and want to study in one of the most fascinating and dynamic cities in the world, ISC Paris Business School is the right place for you.
Assurance of Learning Results


text:
Pixar's New Film 'Soul' to Hit Theaters Next Summer
Jessenika Colon June 19, 2019 1 min read
Following the colossal news that Avengers: Endgame will be re-released in theaters next week with new footage – including post-credit scenes – Disney then announced its newest Pixar film, Soul, along with a release date.
Scheduled to hit theaters one year from today, June 19th, 2020, the official tagline for Soul reads as follows:
"Ever wonder where your passion, your dreams, and your interests come from? What is it that makes you… YOU? Directed by two-time Oscar winner Pete Docter (Up, Inside Out) and produced by Oscar nominee Dana Murray (the "Lou" short), Soul takes place between New York City and the cosmic realms."
Soul's release will come on the heels of Pixar's other new, original film, Onward, which will be released March 6, 2020.
The next film in Pixar's lineup, Toy Story 4, is just days away from its opening weekend, and is expected to bring in between $160 – $200 million, possibly dethroning Incredibles 2 $180 million opening weekend last June.
Source: Deadline
Jessenika Colon
Jessenika is a freelance entertainment writer with a B.A. in Liberal Arts. She has a passion for pop culture, but her #1 love is Disney. When she's not blogging, you can find her with fellow Disney fans as well as the film community over on Twitter @Jesssenika
Tags: Pixar Pixar Animation Studios Soul
Previous 25 Weeks of Pixar: Week 24 Viewing
Next 25 Weeks of Pixar: Week 25 Viewing (Toy Story 4 Review)
Pixar Staff Open up After Announcement That 'Turning Red' is Moving to Disney+
Pixar's 'Turning Red' Moves to Disney+
January 7, 2022 Skyler Shuler
'WALL-E' and 'Return of the Jedi' Enter National Film Registry
December 14, 2021 Skyler Shuler


text:
Q: How to resolve docker host names (/etc/hosts) in containers how is it possible to resolve names defined in Docker host's /etc/hosts in containers?
Containers running in my Docker host can resolve public names (e.g. www.ibm.com) so Docker dns is working fine.
I would like to resolve names from Docker hosts's (e.g. 127.17.0.1 smtp) from containers.
My final goal is to connect to services running in Docker host (e.g. smtp server) from containers. I know I can use the Docker Host IP (127.17.0.1) from containers, but I thought that Docker would have used the Docker host /etc/hosts to build containers's resolve files as well.
I am even quite sure I have seen this working a while ago... but I could be wrong.
Any thoughts?
Giovanni

A: Check out the --add-host flag for the docker command: https://docs.docker.com/engine/reference/run/#managing-etchosts
$ docker run --add-host="smtp:127.17.0.1" container command
In Docker, /etc/hosts cannot be overwritten or modified at runtime (security feature). You need to use Docker's API, in this case --add-host to modify the file.
For docker-compose, use the extra_hosts option.
For the whole "connect to services running in host" problem, see the discussion in this GitHub issue: https://github.com/docker/docker/issues/1143.
The common approach for this problem is to use --add-host with Docker's gateway address for the host, e.g. --add-host="dockerhost:172.17.42.1". Check the issue above for some scripts that find the correct IP and start your containers.

A: You can setup on host simple DNS server, and in container setup /etc/resolve.conf to Docker host DNS server.
For example in dnsmasq you can add addn-hosts=/etc/hosts to config file. So container, by using Docker host DNS server, will be able to resolve hosts /etc/hosts.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


This networking company is based on USA with a strong authority over approximately 25 countries. With the reputation of strong and steady signals this brand has possessed world's fastest wireless router in the market.
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We have well qualified technicians to provide the best service for installing a network solution and support afterwards. Best price for the market will be ensured for all types of NETGEAR products. Purchase online to have the delivery at any place in Bangladesh for your convenience.


In Assam, Karnataka Bank Limited has branches in 1 districts/cities. Select any district/city from drop down or also click nearest city link to check all branches. Find Karnataka Bank Limited Assam IFSC codes from Assam districts search.


text:
You are here: Home | Muslim Scholars Increasingly Debate Unholy War
Muslim Scholars Increasingly Debate Unholy War
Friday December 10, 2004 Islam
CAIRO, Dec. 9 – Muhammad Shahrour, a layman who writes extensively about Islam, sits in his engineering office in Damascus, Syria, arguing that Muslims will untangle their faith from the increasingly gory violence committed in its name only by reappraising their sacred texts.
First, Mr. Shahrour brazenly tackles the Koran. The entire ninth chapter, The Sura of Repentance, he says, describes a failed attempt by the Prophet Muhammad to form a state on the Arabian Peninsula. He believes that as the source of most of the verses used to validate extremist attacks, with lines like "slay the pagans where you find them," the chapter should be isolated to its original context.
Islam / Islamism
Islamism is a totalitarian ideology adhered to by Muslim extremists (e.g. the Taliban, Wahhabis, Hamas and Osama bin Laden). It is considered to be a distortion of Islam. Many Islamists engage in terrorism in pursuit of their goals.
Adherents of Islam are called "Muslims." The term "Arab" describes an ethnic or cultural identity. Not all Arabs are Muslims, and not all Muslims are Arabs. The terms are not interchangeable.
Understanding Islamic Terrorism: Muhammad, Islam and Terrorism
Read up on Islam
Read up on Islamism
Research resources on islam
Research resources on islamism
"The state which he built died, but his message is still alive," says Mr. Shahrour, a soft-spoken, 65-year-old Syrian civil engineer with thinning gray hair. "So we have to differentiate between the religion and state politics. When you take the political Islam, you see only killing, assassination, poisoning, intrigue, conspiracy and civil war, but Islam as a message is very human, sensible and just."
Mr. Shahrour and a dozen or so like-minded intellectuals from across the Arab and Islamic worlds provoked bedlam when they presented their call for a reinterpretation of holy texts after a Cairo seminar entitled "Islam and Reform" earlier this fall.
"Liars! Liars!" someone screamed at a news conference infiltrated by Islamic scholars and others from the hard-core faithful who shouted and lunged at the panelists to a degree that no journalist could ask a question. "You are all Zionists! You are all infidels!"
The long-simmering internal debate over political violence in Islamic cultures is swelling, with seminars like that one and a raft of newspaper columns breaking previous taboos by suggesting that the problem lies in the way Islam is being interpreted. On Saturday in Morocco, a major conference, attended by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, will focus on increasing democracy and liberal principles in the Muslim world.
On one side of the discussion sit mostly secular intellectuals horrified by the gore joined by those ordinary Muslims dismayed by the ever more bloody image of Islam around the world. They are determined to find a way to wrestle the faith back from extremists. Basically the liberals seek to dilute what they criticize as the clerical monopoly on disseminating interpretations of the sacred texts.
Arrayed against them are powerful religious institutions like Al Azhar University, prominent clerics and a whole different class of scholars who argue that Islam is under assault by the West. Fighting back with any means possible is the sole defense available to a weaker victim, they say.
The debate, which can be heard in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, is driven primarily by carnage in Iraq. The hellish stream of images of American soldiers attacking mosques and other targets are juxtaposed with those of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi beheading civilian victims on his home videos as a Koranic verse including the line "Smite at their necks" scrolls underneath.
When the mayhem in Iraq slows, events like the slaying in September of more than 300 people at a Russian school – half of them children – or some other attack in the Netherlands, Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia or Spain labeled jihad by its perpetrators serves to fuel discussions on satellite television, in newspapers and around the dinner tables of ordinary Muslims.
"Resistance was never like this – to kidnap someone and decapitate him in front of everyone," said Ibrahim Said, delivering pastry in the Cairo neighborhood of Nasser City recently.
"This is haram," he went on, using the Arabic word for something forbidden or shameful, and then quotes the Koran on his own. " 'Verily never will Allah change the condition of a people until they change it themselves.' That means nothing will change unless we change ourselves first."
Abdul Rahman al-Rashed, director of the Dubai-based satellite network Al Arabiya and a well-known Saudi journalist, created a ruckus this fall with a newspaper column saying Muslims must confront the fact that most terrorist acts are perpetrated by Muslims.
"The danger specifically comes from the ideas and the preaching of violence in the name of religion," he said, adding, "I am more convinced there is a problem with the culture, the modern culture of radicalism, which people have to admit. Without recognizing that as fact number one, that statistically speaking most terrorists are Muslims, we won't be able to solve it."
Mr. Rashed senses there is a movement in the Arab world, if perhaps not yet a consensus, that understands that Muslims have to start reining in their own rather than constantly complaining about injustice and unfairness. The violence has not only reduced sympathy for just causes like ending the Israeli occupation, he says, but set off resentment against Muslims wherever they live.
On the other side is Abdel Sabour Shahin, a linguistics professor at Cairo University and a talk show stalwart, who says the Muslim world must defend itself and most foreigners in Iraq are fair game. In the new middle-class suburbs stretching into the desert beyond the Pyramids, Professor Shahin greets visitors inside a small gated compound of high white walls that includes his own mosque where he preaches each Friday.
"There is a large group of people who wear civilian clothes but serve the occupying forces," he said. "So how can we demand from someone who is resisting the occupation to ask first if the person is a civilian or not?"
When asked what he thinks of those who chop off heads, he responds: "When a missile hits a house it decapitates 30 or 40 residents and turns them to ash. Isn't there a need to compare the behavior of a person under siege and angry with those who are managing the instruments of war?"
His remarks echo those of Sheik Yousef Qaradawi, an Egyptian-born, now Qatari cleric whose program "Islamic Law and Life" on Al Jazeera satellite television makes him about the most influential cleric among mainstream Sunni Muslims, the majority sect.
Last August Sheik Qaradawi seemed to imply that all Americans in Iraq could be targets. Asked whether that included civilians, the sheik responded with a question, "Are there civilians in Iraq?" In the ensuing uproar across the region he issued a clarification, suggesting that he meant only those who abetted the occupation, and pointed out that he had previously condemned beheadings.
Yet late last month, right after the renewed United States assault on Falluja, the sheik again put the Islamic seal of approval on anyone fighting back.
"Resistance is a legitimate matter – even more, it is a duty," he said on television.
While few Muslims argue with the right to resist a military occupation, the problem is that such sweeping, ill-defined statements are interpreted as a mandate to undertake any violence, no matter how vicious.
"You condemn the beheading and then on a different question you say anybody who supports the occupation is worth fighting," said Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi expert on Islamic movements. "So the message does not sink in."
In November, 26 prominent Saudi clerics signed a petition supporting the "defensive jihad" in Iraq. Although their statement ruled out attacking relief workers or other uninvolved parties, it was interpreted as a signal for Saudis to volunteer. Osama bin Laden and his followers emerged from a similar call 25 years ago to fight in Afghanistan, a fight that they subsequently spread around the globe.
The discussion on the reinterpretation of Islam remains largely confined to an intellectual elite, but even raising the topic erodes the taboo that the religion and those schooled in it are somehow infallible. There are no opinion polls on the subject, but in talking to people on the streets, one gets the sense that they are grappling with these issues within their own understanding of their faith.
Some utterly reject any criticism and immediately identify Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and President Bush as those bearing the most responsibility for the butchery. They inevitably also mention the abuse of prisoners at Abu Ghraib as needing to be avenged.
But others exhibit a certain introspection.
One sense of the growing public dismay in the Arab world is the muted reaction to the Falluja assault last month compared with the one six months ago. This has been partly attributed to the atrocities committed by the insurgents, including suicide attacks killing many Iraqis.
The wide public sympathy enjoyed by those fighting the American or Israeli soldiers, however, makes it difficult to mount any campaign against violence and terrorism, advocates of a change say.
Proponents of jihad argue that it is only natural for Iraqis and Palestinians to fight back, and point to what they call American hypocrisy.
Sheik Khalil al-Mais, the mufti of Zahle and the Bekaa region in Lebanon, compares the treatment of two despots, Saddam Hussein and Muammar el-Qaddafi, both with a long history of abusing dissidents and other ills. One did not yield to the West, while the other abandoned his unconventional weapons programs.
"Qaddafi bought his way out, but Qaddafi is still Qaddafi," the sheik said, donning his carefully wrapped white turban before leaving to deliver a Friday Prayer sermon. "Why did they put Saddam in jail and leave Qaddafi in power? America should not talk about principles."
Asked about those who say the problem lies deep within restrictive interpretations of Islam itself, Sheik Mais grimaced and exclaimed, "Take refuge in God!" summing up the viewpoint of most Islamic scholars.
You cannot divide Islam into pieces, he says. You have to take it as a whole.
But whose whole, the would-be reformists respond, lamenting what one Saudi writer calls "fatwa chaos." A important difficulty under Sunni Islam, as opposed to, say, the Shiite branch predominant in Iran or the Catholic Church, is that there is no central authority to issue ultimate rulings on doctrinal questions.
Those in the liberal trend believe that Islam, now entering its 15th century, needs to undergo a wholesale re-examination of its basic principles. Toward that end, the Cairo conference this fall recommended reviewing the roots of Islamic heritage, especially the Prophet's sayings, ending the monopoly that certain religious institutions hold over interpreting such texts and confronting all extremist religious currents.
Those taking part were harshly accused of dabbling in a realm that belongs solely to the clergy, with the grand sheik of Al Azhar, Muhammad Sayed Tantawi, Egypt's most senior religious scholar, labeling them a "group of outcasts."
But Mr. Shahrour says he and an increasing number of intellectuals cannot be deterred by clerical opposition.
He describes as ridiculously archaic some Hadith, or sayings, attributed to Muhammad – all assembled in nine bulky volumes some 100 years after his death and now the last word on how the faithful should live.
"It is like this now because for centuries Muslims have been told that Islam was spread by the sword, that all Arab countries and even Spain were captured by the sword and we are proud of that," he said. "In the minds of ordinary people, people on the street, the religion of Islam is the religion of the sword. This is the culture, and we have to change it."
Read the New York Times online
The New York Times, USA
www.nytimes.com
This post was last updated: Friday, May 9, 2014 at 1:22 PM, Central European Time (CET)
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New Movie By Iranian Filmmaker Tells Story of Christianity From Muslim Perspective


• Code of Conduct- Being part of a university community means you will be living with people from diverse backgrounds, experiences and expectations. The university's Code of Conduct outlines the university's expectations for your behavior, including policies and rules that you must follow. Make sure you read and understand the documents you are signing and feel free to ask questions, this will help you have a positive on-campus experience. Many universities can also provide a copy in your native language for you to read.
• Resident Assistant (RA)- An RA can be a designated student or other adult, usually living in a student residence, able to assist students with a variety of issues. RA's can be particularly useful resources for first-year and international students who are living on a university campus for the first time. Make sure to find out who the RA is on your dorm floor and what they can help you with, such as locating other resources on-campus, helping you understand the rules of living in a dorm, using the laundry facilities and much more. Very often they will organize events that will help new students feel welcome and comfortable in their new home.
• Advisor- There can be many different types of advisors you may meet at your university. These can include an International Student Advisor or a Department Advisor. Usually their role entails what you would imagine, advising students and being a resource for questions. Some advisors might be assigned to you when you arrive on-campus, and some of them you will have the opportunity to choose. Don't be afraid to ask questions.
• Meal-plan- Most universities that offer student residences will also offer meal-plans. A meal-plan usually requires you to consider how many meals you will eat at your university's cafeteria or dining hall, and pay in advance for a semester or a year. Some universities only have one meal-plan, or one that is compulsory for all first-year students.
• Dorm- The term 'dorm' usually refers to a dormitory or student residence. There is no one-way a dorm has to be, the term can refer to single or double room options or suites. You will find dorms usually have names that are significant to the university, as well as different personalities and advantages.
• Room and Board- Room and Board usually refers to the costs associated with your housing and your meal-plan. Sometimes students can opt-out of one or the other cost, but for many first-year students both are required. If you have any questions as to what is included in the Room and Board package offered by your university, be sure to ask your RA or Office of Residence Life.
• Snow-day - A snow-day is a day in which there are no classes and several administrative offices at the university are closed due to severe weather conditions. Snow-days do not happen every time it snows, but rather, when the university feels it would be safer for students, teachers and staff to stay at home. If you are unsure if your university will be closed, check on their website and/or Facebook page for an official announcement.
• Tutor- Many US university students find help with tutors. Many universities will have a tutoring or writing center that can help you with your academic work. Tutors can be staff, professors or peer-tutors, meaning other students with more experience who are there to help. Find out what the hours are at your tutoring center and drop by to see what services they offer.
• Credits- For almost every class you take at university will earn you credits. To graduate, you will need to have completed a certain number of credits, sometimes sorted by department. There is no rule that works across all universities for how many credits are earned per course, or how many hours a credit is worth. Find out how many credits you will need to graduate and keep track of your progress.
• Major/Minor- A major is an area of interest you choose to focus your studies on. Most undergraduate students will have to choose a major to graduate, and every school offers different majors for you to consider. Find out when you need to 'declare' your major, which means informing the university of your selection and how much time you have to change your mind. A minor is another subject in which you are interested, but which requires a smaller number of credits. Most universities will allow you to have a major and a minor.
Have you encountered any university terms that you'd like to add to this list?


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Tehran and Islamabad are determined to increase bilateral trade up to $5 billion, said an Iranian official adding that Iran-Pakistan Free Economic Zone is expected to open in the city of Mirjaveh in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan Province in the coming days.
Iran's Consul General in the southwestern Pakistani city of Quetta Mohammad Rafiei, in meeting with Chief Minister of Pakistan's Balochistan Province Jam Kamal Khan said that the joint free economic zone will open in the coming days, reported Fars News Agency.
In the meeting, both sides noted that boosting trade between the two neighboring nations would directly benefit ordinary citizens.
Reports further suggested that increasing Pakistan-Iran trade to $5 billion remained the focal point of the meeting.
Rafiei and Kamal called for trade via Pakistan-Iran border points and economic zones to foster bilateral economic relations.
They also discussed implementation of decisions taken by the Pakistan-Iran Border Commission and Joint Border Trade Commission.
"Both nations have had social, political and cultural relations for decades; therefore, the Iranian government has always placed importance on relations with Pakistan," said Rafiei, describing the Pakistan's Balochistan Province as an important bridge between his country and Iran.
During the meeting, the Iranian consul general invited Chief Minister Kamal to visit Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan Province.
"Today, relations between the two countries depend a lot upon trade and economic relations with neighboring country can only be strengthened by boosting trade activities," said Kamal, adding that unrest in the region had a negative impact on economic stability in Pakistan as well as Iran.
"The federal and provincial governments have been taking measures to enhance trade with Iran," said Kamal, adding that Islamabad had been making effective strides to curb drug smuggling and bringing peace to the border areas.
"The tax-free border markets in Pakistan and Iran will boost economic ties between the two countries," said Kamal.
The chief minister also briefed the Iranian consul general on the security measures taken for pilgrims traveling from Balochistan to Iran.
Earlier on Friday, Pakistan's Minister for Communication and Works Department of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province Akbar Ayub Khan, in a meeting with Iran's Consul General in Peshawar Mohammad Baqer Beigi, expressed his country's desire to benefit from Iran's vast experience in developing the country's infrastructure.
Ayub Khan said that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province wants to cooperate with Iran in technical and engineering sectors to develop its infrastructure especially in building of roads and bridges.
Referring to close ties between Iran and Pakistan, the minister said Islamabad is willing to send a team of experts to Iran to see the progress of the country in building roads, tunnels and bridges.
Beigi said that both countries would overcome problems in bilateral ties, if any, adding that his country is willing to cooperate with Pakistan in infrastructure development.
He said the visit of team of experts from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province to Iran would be finalized soon and that close cooperation between Iran and Pakistan in economic sector would benefit the two neighboring states.


Join the Cortes Island Museum and Marnie's Books for the Launch of The Big Swim: Coming Ashore in a World Adrift by Carrie Saxifrage this coming Thursday, August 6th. The readings will start at 7:30 in the Courtyard outside Marnie's and the Coop Café. You will be able to purchase Carrie's book or get your copy signed. There will also be refreshments available. We look forward to seeing there. If you have any questions contact the Museum at 250-935-6340.


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Jeffrey John Zoltowski
Zoltowski, circa 1993; Age-progressions to an unknown age
Missing From Molokai, Hawaii
Clothing/Jewelry Description White shorts and a purple tie-dyed t-shirt.
Distinguishing Characteristics Caucasian male. Brown hair, brown eyes. Zoltowski has a birthmark on his outer right anklebone, about the size of a nickel or quarter. He has a slight scar under his left eye. Zoltowksi may have a mustache, beard or a goatee. His nickname is Jeff. He is left-handed and he has previously fractured his left ankle and left hand.
Zoltowski was last seen hiking in the Wailua Valley on the island of Molokai in Hawaii on March 31, 1993. He flagged down a helicopter from the Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) that day. Zoltowski's feet were blistered and bleeding and he said he was too tired to make the fourteen-mile hike back to civilization. He asked for a ride in the helicopter.
The pilot refused to fly Zoltowski out of the area because this was not a life-threatening situation. He said he could charter a plane for $650, but Zoltowski refused because he could not afford it. The ranger did bring Zoltowski's sixty-pound backpack to the DLNR's service yard on Molokai. Zoltowski never claimed his possessions and has never been seen again. His backpack remained in the yard for forty-one days before Zoltowski was reported as a missing person.
Zoltowski may have been sighted near a homeless shelter in the vicinity of Nimitz Highway and Sumner Street in Honolulu, Hawaii, near K-Mart, on July 28, 2001, eight years after his disappearance.
A woman reported that the man who resembled Zoltowski called himself Sam or Samuel and panhandled for money from vehicles stopped in traffic. He had heavy facial scarring, he limped, and his speech was slurred, indications that he may have suffered a severe head injury in the past.
It has not been confirmed that the individual was in fact Zoltowski. Investigators have looked for the unidentified man but have not located him. The area where he was seen is near a homeless shelter run by the Insitute for Human Services, but no one at the shelter recognized Zoltowski's picture.
Zoltowski had traveled to Hawaii to explore, hike and determine what he wanted to do with his life. He is a graduate of Livonia Stevenson High School and was a student at Wayne State University in Michigan at the time of his disappearance. He had a vegetarian diet and refused to wear leather.
His loved ones describe him as a compassionate, caring individual who did volunteer work. He was close to both his parents, who were divorced. His mother died after his disappearance, but his father is alive and searching for him.
Zoltowski's case remains unsolved.
Maui Police Department 808-244-6000
TroubleShooters International Inc.
The Hidden Wailau Valley Page
CrimeStoppers Honolulu
The Hawaii Channel
Project Jason
Help Us Find Jeffrey Zoltowski
The Honolulu Advertiser
Updated 5 times since October 12, 2004. Last updated October 25, 2007; two pictures added, details of disappearance updated.


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Turning the Table: Fidel Peña
A look at amazing work by our 2021 judges
Fidel Peña is a Creative Director and Co-founder of Underline Studio who has worked on projects including identity and branding for the University of Toronto, the Robert McLaughlin Gallery, Harvard Medical School, as well as campaigns and publications for Google, UNHCR The UN Refugee Agency, and Audi, among others. Communication Arts, the Type Directors Club, Laus Awards, Latin American Design Awards, D&AD, and Applied Arts (that's us!) have lauded him. We were honoured and grateful to have him as judge for our 2021 Design Awards, and were very pleased that he took the time to share a recent favourite project with us.
Describe for us some unique features of this campaign.
The McMaster Museum of Art is a public gallery in the heart of the McMaster University Campus in Hamilton. The Museum sought a new brand identity that would communicate their Vision of disrupting the traditional museological narrative. To showcase this, we created a brand identity program based upon a logo with the "M" for "Museum" set in parentheses — symbols put around a word to show a remark or passage that departs from the theme of a discourse, in this case the idea of the Museum. The parentheses in the logo also expand, in different applications, to include sentences or works of art, to show that the Museum engages, educates and inspires through inclusivity and diversification. The brand identity works and functions across a range of promotional collateral including brochures, newsletters, posters, banners and a website.
Could you give us a "peek" behind the scenes?
The project went on very smoothly, from the first design presentation to the final selection and refinements, with only a small delay in the final selection of colours. We can't wait for the printed pieces and signage to be rolled out when the Museum re-opens in the Fall.
Why is this particular project a favourite?
We worked directly with their Director and Chief Curator, Carol Podedworny, their Curator of Indigenous Art, Rhéanne Chartrand and their Senior Curator, Pamela Edmonds who are all committed to advancing de-colonization, diversifying the collection and dismantling institutional and ideological boundaries. All concepts we are deeply committed to. They were also excited about developing a brand that was simple, direct and bold which would let the collection shine — all aspects that excite us when creating a brand. In short, a dream project.
What do you think this made this project a success?
The respect we have for the work they are doing and the respect they have for the work we could do for them. Also, the intelligence and honesty with which they approached the project from the beginning.
You can see more more of Peña's work at the Underline Studio website here, their Instagram here, and his personal Instagram here.


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An Incredibly Detailed Super Statistical Hunger Games Survival Analysis
Brett Keller
Whenever a new fad takes over pop culture, social scientists take note. They host conferences, teach courses, and write popular pieces trying to tie the newest thing to their favorite area of research. Consider this post a humble attempt to take that trend to its epic, nerdtastic next level.
As a student of epidemiology and economics I feel duty-bound to apply my cursory knowledge of statistics to the novel natural cohort presented in the Hunger Games novel, as documented by author Suzanne Collins. I present a Hunger Games survival analysis: in a Cox proportional hazards model, which covariates are associated with the odds (or hazard ratios) being ever in your favor? A taste of what's to come:
The Hunger Games (Book 1)
1. an explanation of the Hunger Games and facts relevant to this analysis
2. a snappy literature review of peripherally-related things other scholars have written on the subject
3. construction and presentation of data set
4. do the Gamemakers rig the draw? an analysis of expected lottery outcomes in scenarios differing by tessera and demographic trends
5. the main event: a Cox proportional hazard model to explore predictors of survival time in the 74th annual Hunger Games.
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(Spoiler alert: there will be book spoilers throughout this post. I haven't read the second and third books yet, so please don't spoil them for me or others in the comments. I look forward to analyzing their data as well, and the integrity of this very important research will be enhanced if I can pre-specify the hypotheses I'll test before I've observed the outcomes. Data-mining is not the fanboy way.)
1. What are the Hunger Games?
For the woefully unaware, Suzanne Collins' Hunger Games is aptly summarized by that scholarly redoubt, Wikipedia:
[The Hunger Games] is written in the voice of sixteen-year-old Katniss Everdeen, who lives in a post-apocalyptic world in the country of Panem where the countries of North America once existed. The Capitol, a highly advanced metropolis, holds hegemony over the rest of the nation. The Hunger Games are an annual event in which one boy and one girl aged 12 to 18 from each of the 12 districts surrounding the Capitol are selected by lottery [as "tributes"] to compete in a televised battle in which only one person can survive.
Other facts relevant to this analysis: All children in Panem register for the Hunger Games lottery once a year, and all registrations stay in until you age out (after age 18). So a 12 year old is in a minimum of one time, a 13 year old is in a minimum of twice, etc. The Capitol keeps most districts in near-starvation conditions, so the remedy for many families is to apply for tesserae, a yearly allocation of food that necessitates adding your name to the lottery an additional time. In terms of welfare policy, tessera (plural) are a kind of conditional in-kind transfer of goods (more).
If a child requests one tesserae annually they will have two lottery entries at age 12, four at age 13, and so on. A child requesting five tessera per year will be entered six times at age 12 and on up to a whopping 42 entries at age 18. This is the situation one of the main characters, Gale, faces at the beginning of the book. Matt Yglesias worried this scenario would lead to runaway tessera inflation, but that shouldn't be a problem as eligibility is apparently capped by number of family members - Gale takes out five tessera annually to support his five family members.
Still, the odds that any given child will be selected are relatively low - and even lower in districts with large populations - but it is the fear that really controls the population. Psychology research helps explain why the Games are so terrible to the citizens of Panem. A little Prospect Theory here: people are loss averse, and they overweight the likelihood of rare events. The Capitol regime also knows that once children are selected from each district, Prospect Theory predicts that citizens will have a new "reference point" (they assume their tributes will be killed) and thus see victory in the Games as a gain to be celebrated, rather than merely the maintenance of the status quo (the tribute being alive) that existed before the annual lottery.
Also notable are the "Careers," or tributes from wealthy districts who have been trained from early childhood to compete in the Games. Regardless of who is picked by lottery from their district, one of the Careers will volunteer. (There is obvious room for fruitful anthropological inquiry into this subculture.)
This should relieve the fear of the Games in their districts, though it is unclear whether the districts are able to maintain this system because they are wealthy, or whether the districts are wealthy because their citizens work free of the fear of the Games and any impact on demographic trends the fear of losing children might have. This is also an important area for study, but the endogeneity problems and problematic historical data are a challenge worthy of Acemoglu and Robinson.
2. Obligatory literature review
In addition to the aforementioned tesserae inflation post by Matt Yglesias, Matt also wrote "The Economics of the Hunger Games" where he asks and answers his own question in the subtitle: "could any real country have an economy like Panem's? Actually, yes." In that piece he uses the Hunger Games to illustrate Acemoglu and Robinson's distinction between inclusive vs. extractive institutions.
Next up is Erik Kain's Five Economic Lessons of the Hunger Games, in Forbes. His lessons are 1) Markets Are More Efficient Than Command Economies, 2) Globalism Only Works If You Ditch The Extraction Model, 3) Economic Inequality Is Bad For Business, 4) War Drains Economic Resources, and 5) Technology Can Be Used For Good Or Evil. I particularly liked this note:
Furthermore, arbitrarily picking Districts to supply only one type of good to the Capitol means that human capital is badly mismanaged. Nothing about being born in District 12 makes you a better miner, any more than being born in District 2 makes you a better soldier.
Ironically, a flourishing market economy likely would have meant a far more wealthy populace in the Capitol as well. Hundreds of years in the future, we should expect to be far wealthier and more technologically advanced than even the wealthiest citizens of Panem.
This reminds me that our current world economy is in some ways very much like Panem, with massive restrictions to cross-border flow of human capital (i.e., people). Michael Clemens of the Center for Global Development has done some valuable work exploring the economic benefits (to everyone, not just the immigrants) of allowing greater migration.
Finally, there's "Probability and Game Theory in the Hunger Games," by Michael A. Lewis, writing atWired. Lewis explores the lottery process - and I think here he's quite wrong, but more on that below in the nitty-gritty of my analysis. Then he moves on to game theory, using the decision within the Hunger Games of whether to sleep or not sleep as an illustration of Prisoner's Dilemma. I think his analysis of the dilemma the children face and how it prompts them to form alliances is correct. But as I read Lewis' article I thought of another, related dilemma:
The people of any given District could game the system by all agreeing to put in for the maximum quantity of tessera without hurting anyone. A simplified example: if the entire child population of District 12 consisted of 10 fourteen-year-old kids and they all have the minimum three entries, there are 30 entries total and each child has a 3/30 (or 1 in 10) likelihood of being chosen.
But if each of the kids agrees to request two tessera annually, they would each have nine entries ate age fourteen, making their likelihood of selection 9 out of 90… which is still 1 in 10. In other words, so long as everyone agrees to increase tessera selection simultaneously, everyone benefits in terms of extra food and no one is more likely to be selected.
So why doesn't this happen? Two reasons: first, Capitol may require the tessera requests to be private and otherwise block coordination efforts amongst the population in a given district. Without perfect information about what others are actually getting, Gale could tell everyone he put in for five tessera (to decrease their marginal risk from requesting more, which would make him less likely to be selected!) while actually only putting in for three.
Second, income inequality exacerbates problems as wealthy families would not opt into such a coordinated system because they do not need the extra food - if everyone were equally poor andable to coordinate such a scheme might work.
3. Construction of data set
The iteration of the Hunger Games depicted in the novel is the 74th annual, meaning that there have been 1,776 participants to date and 75 winners (two in year 74). It sure would be nice to have all that data! Alas, Collins only documents the 74th Games, but I think there is still some interesting analysis to be done.
I began by perusing the novel for information about each character. Later I discovered that much of the information I needed was already available through the Hunger Games Wiki, helpfully compiled by people even nerdier than me (and with less binding time constraints). Here's how the data looks in Stata (version 11.2), which I used for the survival anaylsis:
To allow others to check and improve upon my analysis, I've made the data available for download in a Google Doc spreadsheet, along with my Stata code in a Google Document (which contains instructions for downloading and importing the data into Stata).
On methodology: I assigned each tribute a unique ID (1 through 24) and names, where available. The other variables in the data set are:
District (1 through 12) Sex (0 = male, 1=female) Age (12 through 18) Volunteer (0 = no, 1 = yes) Career (0 = no, 1 = yes) Gamemakers' Rating (5-11 or 3-11, depending on methodology described below) Rank (order in which they exited the games, from 1st for Katniss and Peeta to 14th for those who died in the initial bloodbath) Winner (0 = no, 1 = yes for Peeta and Katniss) Alliance (0 = not formed, 1 = formed an alliance)
In cases where data from the book and movie conflicted (as was the case with rank for a few tributes) I went with the book. In cases where data is available in the movie that isn't in the book (as with age), I did use the movie data. District, sex, age, rank, and winner were unambiguous.
For the alliance "dummy" (not necessarily an indicator of intelligence) variable, those who formed an alliance are represented by 1 (this includes both the Careers alliance and the short-lived Rue-Katniss alliance) and 0 if they survived the bloodbath but did not form an alliance. I thought it would be unfair to assign an alliance value to those who died in the bloodbath, as they may well have formed one had they survived. Also, Katniss is notable for being the only volunteer in the data set who was not also a Career.
The Gamemakers' ratings should be good predictors of survival time, as they represent expert judgments based on knowledge of the previous games and inside knowledge of fighting ability. However, precise ratings were only available for the nine named characters: Marvel, Glimmer, Cato, Clove, Foxface, Thresh, Rue, Peeta, and Katniss. The variable "rating" gives the other tributes missing values.
However, the book also notes that the Careers scored mostly between 8 and 10, whereas the other non-Career tributes scored a 5 "on average". So I added another variable "rating_ave" that assigns a 9 to the Careers with missing values and a 5 to non-Careers with missing values. I also created "rating_rand," which creates plausible ratings by using the generator at Random.org to give random integers between 8 and 10 for the Careers and between 3 and 7 for the non-Careers. This allows the rating data to be analyzed using any of these three methods.
4. Do the Gamemakers rig the draw?
Building off Michael A. Lewis' thoughts on the odds of being selected in the lottery, I wanted to explore the age distribution of the tributes. How can we tell whether the Gamemakers are actually rigging the vote, to bring in younger or more compelling tributes to enhance the drama of the Games? Luckily we have enough information to explore this question a bit.
When you use Stata to tabulate the tributes by age, you find a few funny things. For instance, seven (29.2%) of the 24 tributes are age 15, and 6 (25.0%) are age 16, which seem high to me. But in a random process like a lottery - and with small numbers of children actually chosen - it can be difficult for human intuition to distinguish between random variation and something else. For that, we need statistical analysis. Graphically (using Excel), the distribution of the proportion of tributes by age looks like this:
How does this compare to the expected distribution of tributes based on the increasing risk of being selected in any given year? Astute readers will have already notice that I'm including all 24 tributes here, whereas eight of them (Katniss plus 7 Careers) volunteered and were not randomly selected. So breaking the tributes down by volunteer vs. non-volunteer status yields this graph:
The red bars represent counts of non-volunteers, which should be due to random selection based on their number of entries in the lottery. Here's where I differ with Lewis' analysis at Wired. Lewis presents this graph of increasing probability of selection as children age:
As Lewis notes, this is from an example where all the children are of the same age, and the total pool of children gets smaller as children get selected or age out. This is a bit silly, and doesn't really help us understand the lottery dynamics. A more realistic scenario would involve cohorts that are roughly the same size each year, so that the same number of children enter the pool and exit the pool in any given year. This rests on the assumption that demographic trends in Panem are fairly stable - after all, it has existed with the same system in place for 74 years, and Capitol would likely avoid incentivizing rapid demographic changes that could destabilize the situation.
Discounting tesserae for now, if a cohort of children enters and has one entry at 12, two at 13, and so on, the probability that a child from a particular age will be selected in any given year increases arithmetically: 3.6% at age 12, 7.1% at age 13, 10.7% at age 14, 14.3% at age 15, 17.9% at age 16, 21.4% at age 17, and 25% at age 18. In other words, just by nature of the accumulating lottery entries as you age, one out of four lottery draws should be an 18 year old. Using these proportions and multiplying them by the 18 tributes actually selected by lottery, I get the blue line on the graph below, which represents the expected number of children from each age if the lottery is completely random:
By comparing the red bars (non-volunteer children) to the blue expected line, you can see the apparent difference in outcomes. However, we haven't yet tested whether these differences are statistically significant or could simply happen by chance.
[A side note on tesserae: Lewis rightly notes that it is difficult to analyze further without understanding why some families select tesserae and others do not. I don't think the problem is quite as difficult as that. Choosing tesserae is likely dependent on income so it makes sense to assume that a certain percentage of the population in each District doesn't request it at all, whereas others require one, two, or more tessera every year to survive (we know that Gale took at five every year.) But that shouldn't matter when analyzing the probability of a given age being selected unless the likelihood of choosing tesserae differs systematically (in the whole population) by age. In other words, people who put in for one tessera at age 12 are likely to continue requesting one tessera per year, and if they increase or decrease that request the change will be offset by changes in requests from other citizens. If 10% of the population requests the maximum tesserae every year but that doesn't change as the children age (because family size remains constant) then children remain at constant risk based on their age. I modeled a few scenarios in Excel to convince myself of this, but I won't present those here. Thus, I'm assuming that on average the number of tesserae requested is determined by income but not by age, as need stays constant over time.]
Given those assumptions, tesserae can be discounted as a major factor impacting lottery selection. On an individual level it's still bad to be poor and thus need tesserae, and it's still bad to get older and thus have your name in the lottery more times, but on the population level we can model the probability of selection of a given age.
To do so I used a Chi-square test in Stata, testing to see whether there's a difference between the observed counts and the expected counts, the blue line in the graph above. Stata's built-in functionalities don't quite cut it, you'll need to install the tab_chi package (just use the command "findit tab_chi") after which you enter this command to perform a Chi-square test: "chitesti 1 0 1 5 4 3 2 \ 0.571428576 1.142857136 1.714285712 2.285714288 2.857142864 3.428571424 4". This yields a Pearson Chi-square statistic of 6.4958 (P=0.370).
This indicates that the difference between the age distribution in the 74th Hunger Games is not different (with a traditional statistical significance threshold of P=0.05) from the expected age distribution given an arithmetic increase in lottery names by age and the tesserae assumptions outlined above. Thus, the available data does not support the hypothesis that the Gamemakers rigged the draw in the 74th games. Of course, this test depends on the assumptions regarding tesserae and demographics explained above. And ideally we'd have data from all the games, which would allow us to detect more subtle patterns with a larger sample size. This analysis works for the 74th games, but external validity - whether we can extrapolate from these results to all instances of the Games - may be problematic.
5. Survival analysis: which covariates are associated with longer survival in the Games?
Survival analysis is quite important in epidemiology. Kaplan-Meier graphs are commonly used in the medical literature to visually represent the difference in survival over time between two different groups - often treatment vs. control. Survival analysis can be used with any outcome, not just death, so long as the data you have is measure time that passes until an event.
When these statistical tool are used in economic and other non-health data, they're often described as "event history analysis" as the vocabulary of survival analysis makes less sense. However, it should be morbidly clear that the language of survival analysis works just fine with the Hunger Games scenario. In fact, it's a perfect opportunity to explore survival analysis as we have data for how long each tribute survived in the arena, as well as a number of covariates measured at the beginning of the contest.
I won't go into much coding detail on the survival analysis, but Stata users can access my .do file in .txt format (WordPress won't support .do formats) to replicate the analysis. Rather, I'll present the results graphically where possible. First, you can see how the Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard estimator increases with time:
Next I ran a few univariate analyses of what I thought might be important predictors. In the following Kaplan-Meier graphs the y axis shows the proportion of tributes surviving at a given point in time. Since our unit of time is days, you see a "step down" each time someone dies. Here's a graph showing the survival by sex:
Not much difference. On the first day both male and female drop from 1.00 (everyone surviving) to close to 0.50. On the second day the male line doesn't budge from 0.50, but the female line drops down to 0.50: this is the demise of the District female, killed by Peeta and Cato in the book but by Glimmer in the film, as noted at the Hunger Games Wiki). The last blue step down - on day 17 - is Cato. In this graph each step is the same height (0.083 = 1/12) because the numbers of male and female tributes are the same, but in subsequent graphs this isn't always true. (An aside on gender: Lewis' article also points out that it's unclear how Capitol deals with transgender citizens.)
Next, by Careers vs. non-Careers, the graph included as a teaser at the beginning of this post:
The Careers get a head-start at the bloodbath, but things even out by around day 10. At least in this particular iteration of the Games, the do not fare better overall than the non-Careers.
Graphing by age is messy because there are too many categories (and Kaplan-Meier graphs don't work with continuous variables) so I grouped the tributes into three age categories:
I ran several more of these bivariate analyses, and then finally fit a Cox proportional hazards model, yielding this Stata output:
The only statistically significant effect (at the traditional and arbitrary cutoff of P<0.05) comes from the Gamemakers' rating variable. The career dummy variable just misses the cutoff (P=0.065) and might be significant if we had a larger sample size and saw similar trends in the data, but effect is in the wrong direction: holding other things constant (sex, age, and Gamemakers' rating), Careers do less well than non-Careers! Of course, this only happens in this analysis because Peeta and Katniss (but mostly Katniss) are awesome.
Because it would be disappointing to end on a non-visual note, I created a dichotomous low vs. high rating variable based on whether tributes had scores of 3 to 8 or 9 to 11 on the rating_rand variable. Here you can see just how different the survival outcomes for the low and high ability groups are:
My interpretation of this is that the Gamemakers know what they're doing when they assign the ratings. They've been doing this for years, so they give scores that are so accurate that they're actually better predictors of survival time than whether a tribute is a volunteer, a Career, male or female, or forms an alliance. Pretty impressive.
An alternate and more cynical interpretation is that the Gamemakers are concerned about their own reputations and thus engineer the games so as to confirm their ratings, occasionally killing off players who do better or worse than expected based on the ratings, all so that the Gamemakers can look like they knew what they were doing all along. Unfortunately, the political system of Panem ranks so low on Freedom House's annual scores that we simply can't tell what's going on behind the scenes at all. To cut through their lies we simply need more data.
(P.S. Feel free to run your own analysis of the data, but please credit and link to me. After all, a social science community lacking incentives for researchers to share the data they gather is no community at all.)
This post originally appeared on bdkeller.com. Republished with permission. Brett Keller is a graduate student in public health at Johns Hopkins and economics and public policy at Princeton. He blogs at bdkeller.com and you can follow him on Twitter: @brettkeller.


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People on the Move: John Donovan, Bizfi
Small business lending fintech provider Bizfi has appointed John Donovan as the company's CEO. A 30-year veteran in the payments and alternative finance industry, Donovan worked for nearly two decades at Mastercard, where he was integral to conceiving and developing new products, launching a global card program and growing the company's global electronic payments offerings. As one of the founding employees of Lending Club, Donovan helped create the direct-to-consumer fintech industry. During his tenure at Lending Club, he held leadership roles including chief operating officer, board member and executive vice president of corporate development.
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Tags: Movers and Shakers PayTech News
Immedis secures €25m for payroll and tax tech
The Irish paytech will create over 200 new jobs in the next 18 months.
Visa acquires chargebacks tech firm Verifi
To combine Visa's anti-fraud tech with Verifi's solutions.
Gold payments firm Glint Pay receives £5m funding
It will help the firm push its US expansion.
N26 has superhero-landed in the US, new hip bank in Spain, and more!
SME payments firm SpotOn to build on growth with $40m funding
The fintech has grown by more than 400% in 12 months.
Visa expands token and ticketing services with Rambus' portfolio
Visa will develop its tokenisation services to support commerce.
Money transfer app Pangea looking to offer checking accounts
More firms are looking to jump into the challenger bank world.
SpotOn targets SMEs with exclusive TSYS deal
The agreement will expand payments capabilities to merchants.
NetSuite supports GoCardless in global expansion
TransferWise doubles its valuation to $3.5bn
Money20/20 Europe 2019 - Day 1, innovation station
Brex raises $100m to reach $2.6bn valuation


In 154 years, none of the 40 roads within Arlington National Cemetery have been named for women — until today. This afternoon, Arlington National Cemetery officially dedicated their Millenium expansion and unveiled two new streets. One of these streets, Lewis Drive, is named for Ida Lewis, the first female commemorated with a street name in the national cemetery.
The $81.7 million expansion — and the first geographic expansion in 40 years — added 27 acres and 27,282 internment spaces, extending the life of the cemetery for a century. With the added acreage came new roads to dedicate.
The process for selecting which service members would receive the honor started in 2015 when senior enlisted advisors from each branch were asked to compile recommendations. In March 2016, the committee voted unanimously and the secretary of the Army approved the dedication of the streets named for U.S. Marine Corps Gunnery Sgt. Jonathan W. Gifford and Ida Lewis of the U.S. Lighthouse Service which was later absorbed into the U.S. Coast Guard.
Not only is Lewis the first female to be recognized with a street sign in Arlington National Cemetery, she is also the first member of the U.S. Coast Guard to receive the honor. In the late 1800s, Lewis saved at least a dozen from the waters of Newport, Rhode Island harbor during her lighthouse service.
Gifford's dedication carries its own significance. He is the first U.S. Marine to be recognized with a street name in Arlington National Cemetery. Gifford received the Navy Cross posthumously for heroic actions in Afghanistan.


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Along with its needed effects, copanlisib (the active ingredient contained in Aliqopa) may cause some unwanted effects. Although not all of these side effects may occur, if they do occur they may need medical attention.
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What type of drug is Aliqopa?


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by follers · September 6, 2013
Cumberbatch in 2011, photo by PrPhotos
Birth Name: Benedict Timothy Carlton Cumberbatch
Place of Birth: Hammersmith, London, England, U.K.
Date of Birth: 19 July, 1976
Ethnicity: English (mostly), as well as 1/16th Welsh, some Scottish and Cornish, distant French, Swiss-French, Swedish or German, and Dutch
Benedict Cumberbatch is an English actor and producer. He plays Stephen Strange / Doctor Strange in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
He is the son of actors Timothy Carlton (born Timothy Carlton Congdon Cumberbatch) and Wanda Ventham. He is married to avant-garde theatre and opera director, playwright, and performer Sophie Hunter, with whom he has two children. Benedict is of mostly English ancestry, with 1/16th Welsh, some Scottish and Cornish, as well as distant French, Swiss-French, Swedish or German, and Dutch, roots.
Benedict's paternal grandfather was Henry Carlton Cumberbatch (the son of Henry Arnold/Alfred Cumberbatch and Helene/Helen Gertrude Rees). Benedict's grandfather Henry was born in Smyrna, Anatolia, Ottoman Empire (now İzmir, Turkey). He was an officer of the British Royal Navy, who served as a submarine commander before and at the start of WWII. Benedict's great-grandfather Henry was born in Berdyans'k, Zaporiz'ka oblast, Ukraine, and was a diplomat, who was Queen Victoria's consul general in Turkey and Lebanon. Their families were from England, and were working overseas at the time of their births. Benedict's great-grandfather Henry was the son of Robert William Cumberbatch, who was also a diplomat, a Consul in the Russian and Ottoman Empires; and of Louisa Grace Hanson.
Benedict's great-grandmother Helene Rees was the daughter of Thomas Bowen Rees, who was Welsh, and of Ida Josephine Langdon. Benedict's father also has more distant French ancestry, as well as Scottish and Cornish roots. His father is also a descendant of Esaie Fercken, who had Dutch ancestry, and was Chancellor of the Dutch Consulate of Smyrna, and of Esaie's wife, Louisa Ulrica Justi, who likely had either Swedish or German ancestry. Another of Benedict's father's distant ancestors, Louisa Pernet (1737-1811), was born in Paudex, Switzerland, to Pierre Pernet and Marie-Judith du Veluz, and had Swiss-French ancestry.
Benedict's paternal grandmother was Pauline Ellen Laing Congdon (the daughter of Thomas Edwin Congdon and Pauline Ellice Ferguson). Benedict's grandmother Pauline was born in Dhoolie, Rangajan, Assam, India, of British heritage. Thomas was the son of Thomas Edwin Congdon and Mary Moon. Benedict's great-grandmother Pauline was the daughter of John Paul Ferguson, who was from Moray, Scotland, and of Isobel Mary Esplin, from Canada.
Benedict's maternal grandfather was Frederick Howard Ventham (the son of Frederick William Ventham and Mabel Elizabeth Waters). Benedict's grandfather Frederick was born in Lewes, Sussex, England. Benedict's great-grandfather Frederick was the son of William Ventham and Sarah Jane Hurst. Mabel was the daughter of Peter Waters and Rebecca Morgan.
Benedict's maternal grandmother was Gladys Frances Holtham (the daughter of Francis Leonard Holtham and Selina Mary Warner). Gladys was born in Kensington, London, England. Benedict's great-grandfather Francis was the son of Mark Holtham and Emily Battell. Selina was the daughter of William Warner and Emily Pells.
Sources: Genealogies of Benedict Cumberbatch – http://www.geni.com
http://www.wikitree.com
https://famouskin.com
http://wc.rootsweb.ancestry.com
Tags: CornishDutchEnglishFrenchGermanScottishSwedishSwissSwiss-FrenchWelsh
http://wc.rootsweb.ancestry.com/cgi-bin/igm.cgi?op=PED&db=dowfam3&id=I593295
Kenny Molz says:
he is scary looking
http://www.wikitree.com/genealogy/Cumberbatch-Family-Tree-5
He has a Barbados-born ancestor:
visokozen says:
I thought the same thing when i saw him. He is delusional about his looks as well.
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Our new stagecoach van service will shuttle you to and from appointments, shopping, outings or special activities, within the city of Armstrong on a weekly basis.
As well, we have available for resident's (that are capable to use), is our facility scooter, parked and available in our indoor scooter parking room. This service is included in your chosen service package and fees, for those residents that choose to live at Heaton Place.


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Lied Center of Kansas > Events > Courage, Accountability, Persistence: Hard-Fought Lessons in Sports and Social Justice
Wednesday February 15, 2023 7:00 pm
Pavilion Lied Center of Kansas Get Directions
FREE. Registration is requested.
Courage, Accountability, Persistence: Hard-Fought Lessons in Sports and Social Justice
An Evening with Joe Briggs, executive strategist at Amazon; Cliff Wiley, decorated track athlete and attorney; and Kyle Velte, professor of law
Presented by the KU School of Law
Click to view full poster.
Joe Briggs, executive strategist at Amazon; Cliff Wiley, L'83, decorated track athlete and attorney; and Kyle Velte, professor and associate dean at KU Law, will participate in a moderated discussion about their experiences advocating for social justice in the sports world.
Attendance is free and open to the public. Seating will be first come, first served. Advance registration is requested: law.ku.edu/DMS-Center.
This event is presented by The Dru Mort Sampson Center for Diversity, Equity and Inclusion at the University of Kansas School of Law.
Register for Event: Courage, Accountability, Persistence: Hard-Fought Lessons in Sports and Social Justice


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Above & Beyond in Rutherford County
Yellow Rose Forge - so many stories from Shiloh to Guatemala
Jean Gordon
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Billy, Sheila and son Joseph on the mission field
Walking into the Yellow Rose Forge shop where Billy Salyers and his business partner/son Joseph Salyers are at work, a person immediately recognizes a sense of brotherly love and a cause.
Billy was working on a project for a friend, who was in the shop, and Joseph was making swords, another gift to complete before Christmas.
There are a lot of stories from the shop off Poors Ford Road, Shiloh, where the father/son work as full-time bladesmiths.
Yellow Rose began as a family working together five years ago.
"Every year my sons, my daughter, and I would build something new to learn new skills together, and more importantly to spend time with each other. One year we tried blacksmithing and it simply snowballed from there," Billy said. Today he and Joseph are full-time bladesmiths.
Recently, Joseph Salyers became one of the youngest Forged in Fire Champions (reality television show) and Joseph and Billy became the only Father and Son Forged in Fire Champions in the show's history.
"It's kind of odd for both of us when people know us from the show or who are interested in meeting us because of something we did on TV," Billy said. "This happens all over the world."
The television show opened avenues for them to expand their mission work in Guatemala. Because of Joseph's commitment at age 18 to serve as a missionary in Guatemala, the door swung open for Redeemed Steel to do the work Joseph was doing there.
Redeemed Steel is a network Billy began in 2019 and has grown to over 300 people in six or seven countries. Redeemed Steel is made up of craftspeople of all sorts, blacksmiths, bladesmiths, metalworkers, woodworkers and leatherworkers.
It is a Christian 501c3 non-profit organization that uses the works of hands and the words of lips to make a lasting impact as others are served.
Primarily blacksmiths and bladesmiths, the group builds homes for the homeless, provides food for the hungry, and shares the gospel of Jesus Christ. In the past two years, the network has built six homes, helped to build a church, fed a village of 500 people by providing over 3,000 pounds of food, and shared the gospel with thousands.
The Salyers and Redeemed Steel work in Guatemala, Costa Rica, and anywhere else they have an opportunity to go. They partner with ministries in the United States such as The River Ministries of Polk County, Zoweh, a men's ministry group from Durham, Reforged, a Texas based group that offers free forging classes and professional counseling to vets and first responders with PTSD, and The New Frontiers, a Montana group designed to reconnect fathers and their children.
Redeemed Steel also partners with Global Action ministries to provide training and education services all over the world to church leaders who can't afford to go to school, enabling them to serve the countries and communities to which they belong," Billy explained.
"Usually, when Joseph and I take a team, I will spend the first couple of days team building," Billy said.
A Redeemed Steel typical mission trip starts with a group of talented craftsmen and craftswomen dividing up huge quantities of bulk food into smaller 30 pound bags. The next day, the team will distribute the food to individual families in need. Over the next couple of days, the team might build a house or five, spending about a day framing and roofing, completing each build in approximately 10 hours. A team of 12 can easily build 5 houses in a week.
The mission trip concludes with a Redeemed Steel presentation, partnering with local churches and community centers to do a blacksmithing demonstration in which they forge a knife and share the gospel.
Continued on page 3.
"At the end of the presentation, we give away the knife and invite people to give their lives to Christ. There is always and amazing response. We try our best to get these people plugged into their local church community, who will follow up and continue to serve them after we leave," Billy said.
One of the best things about the mission trips are the Salyers go as a family.
Wife Sheila, a postmaster in Glen Alpine, travels on the mission trips and she helps in planning and building.
"Joseph and I run Yellow Rose Forge to help fund our mission work," Billy said.
"This is the reason for everything. The Lord provides. Everything we do is based on this one thing," he said.
"Orders for our knives typically take about six to eight months because we are in such high demand," Billy said. They recently completed making 1,000 knives for a buyer in Montana.
Their travel is also extremely busy.
"We are almost never more than a month away from our next trip to somewhere. But both of those are great problems to have. Having a high demand means people like what we make and are willing to wait for the quality they know they will get from us. And we love to travel, but we are finding that some of the places we want to serve are having to wait longer for us to get there than we would like," Billy said.
Yellow Rose Forge is expanding in the future to help meet the needs of their business and mission trips.
"Our hopes are to be able to offer more to our community in both goods and services, having a retail outlet for high quality handmade knives, and a school of metal working where we can teach smithing to people from all over the world and offer a place where locals can come learn the craft themselves," Billy said.
Classes are already taught on Saturdays, but they stay book up months in advance.
When the new shop is completed, there will be more space and certainly more accessibility.
Billy quickly says it is not about building a business.
"It's about building a kingdom. We are an unapologetically Christian company run by a Christian family. And we don't do what we do to make money. There are far easier ways to make a living," Billy said.
"For some reason God has seen fit to allow the Salyers to have a craft that is not only our job and our ministry, but it is also still our hobby," Billy said.
"When we're not working, you'll still often find us in the shop, making something cool just for the fun of it. And we'll be doing that together as a family. That's another reason why we're in Rutherford County. It's home. And this is a place where that still means something."
"This is our home, and we both love living beside and serving the people here," Billy said.
HammerIn 2023 in Polk County
Everyone will have an opportunity to meet the Yellow Forge Rose bladesmiths, family and others at the Hammer In 2023" at the Tryon International Equestrian Center. The 5th Annual Redeemed Steel Hammer In will be July 15. There will also be a Custom Knife and Craft Show. Tables are available first to Redeemed Steel Network Members. Tables will only be $50 each and more than 2,000 people are estimated to attend the HammerIn.
Table reservations will be taken soon. Check the latest news on their Facebook post.
There will be a VIP Dinner on July 14 with the Hammer in and Show starting at 9am the 15.
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Just a quick SCM mod for anyone using my Mig-15 model. This can be found in the showroom section, a few pages back probably as it is a tad older now.
I just made the SCM to finally get the guns functional on my Shamal replacing Mig, they are reasonably powerful and can sort the Hydras out a lot quicker than the Rustlers guns. The weapons are coded to line up correctly with the models and have their power adjusted so that the larger cannon one is more powerful.
These guns may cause problems on anything other than my Mig as they may end up firing inside other models fuselage = Boom.
Thanks to PLPynton whom I got the pointers for adding vehicle weapons from his vehicle gun script.


If you are a blogger, or if you have a business online, you might find yourself in this picture. I know that I find myself in this picture, and a lot of my friends told me that this picture is also very true for them. On the internet the information appears very quickly and you have to be always with the latest news, that's why maybe I find myself in this picture. What about you ?