Google redesigned the page that allows you to generate app passwords. The page is now available at https://security.google.com/settings/security/apppasswords or you can check the Security tab from Google Settings. It can be accessed only if you've enabled 2-step verification.
"When you sign up for 2-Step Verification, we normally send you verification codes. However, these codes do not work with some apps and devices, like Gmail on your iPhone or iPad, Thunderbird, and Outlook. Instead, you'll need to authorize the app or device the first time you use it to sign in to your Google Account by generating and entering an App password," explains Google.


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News > Business
Auto provisions were a major U.S. focus in revamping NAFTA, but analysts say the changes will have modest impact
UPDATED: Wed., Oct. 3, 2018
Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland, center, talks with United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, right, and Mexico's Secretary of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal after delivering statements to the media Jan. 29, 2018, during the sixth round of negotiations for a new North American Free Trade Agreement in Montreal. (Graham Hughes / AP)
By Jim Puzzanghera and Don Lee Los Angeles Times
WASHINGTON – Negotiators from the U.S. focused much of their effort in reworking the North American Free Trade Agreement on provisions affecting auto manufacturing, touting the final deal with Canada and Mexico as a big win to domestic carmakers and their employees.
"Once approved, this will be a new dawn for the American auto industry and for the American autoworker," President Trump declared in announcing the accord Monday. His chief trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, singled out the new auto rules, saying they are "really going to bring back jobs to America."
But as innovative and substantial as the changes are, experts said the amendments in the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement – specifically a new minimum-wage requirement for some workers and an increase in the North American-produced content of vehicles necessary for tariff-free trade – will provide only a limited increase in U.S. production and employment in the foreseeable future. About 952,000 U.S. workers are employed in manufacturing automobiles and parts.
Most of the major automakers, both domestic and foreign, will be able to meet the higher rules of origin with a bit of mixing and shifting where they now assemble cars and trucks, engines, transmissions and other parts.
That will be harder to do for a few automakers like Volkswagen, which has put much of its investments in Mexico, where wages are much lower. And new rules that auto producers must source 70 percent of steel and aluminum from North America will force Hyundai to rethink its current practice of importing steel from South Korea.
Even then, the new auto rules won't fully take effect until 2023, allowing companies to gradually make adjustments.
"When we look at that phase-in period, it's something that doesn't necessarily scream out that we're going to see a massive increase in U.S. assembly or parts," said Jeff Schuster, president of global vehicle forecasting at research firm LMC Automotive. "On the surface, this isn't something that's going to cause a massive shift, in our opinion, to the U.S. I think it will be more of a subtle shift."
Automakers and experts are poring over the details in the 1,168-page text, released after an eleventh-hour agreement with Canada late Sunday allowed the negotiations to meet a U.S.-imposed deadline. U.S. officials were in contact with automakers as they negotiated the deal, and the early reaction from the industry has been positive.
"These changes are pretty clever and have the potential, on paper, of increasing the U.S. and Canadian share of North American production and somewhat decreasing Mexico's," said James Rubenstein, a Miami University professor of geography who has written extensively on where and how cars are made. "But I think these are marginal changes that might affect individual carmakers rather than the industry as a whole."
A U.S. auto and parts industry group that advised Lighthizer wrote to U.S. trade officials a few days ago that the negotiated auto rules were "workable and manageable." The group's bigger concern recently was the possibility that Canada could be excluded from the deal after the U.S. and Mexico already had come to terms in late August. Trump had threatened to freeze out Canada, which would have been hugely disruptive because automakers have developed an extensive North America-wide supply chain since NAFTA took effect in 1994.
In the new pact, 75 percent of a vehicle's content would have to be produced in North America to qualify for tariff-free trade among the three countries. That's an increase from NAFTA's 62.5 percent level.
Another key provision in the proposed U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement adds a requirement that 40 percent to 45 percent of a vehicle's content must be produced by workers making at least $16 an hour. That also would be phased in over several years. Analysts said most carmakers would not have trouble meeting that, although VW, Nissan and some others with large Mexican operations could find it more challenging.
VW didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. A Nissan spokesman said Tuesday: "We're encouraged that an agreement was reached, and hope that it appropriately considers the impact on our employees, suppliers and customers."
The trade deal, which must be ratified by the legislatures of all three countries, also includes side agreements that would exempt up to 2.6 million passenger vehicle imports into the U.S. a year apiece from Mexico and Canada if the U.S. imposes a new 25 percent global auto tariff on national security grounds, as Trump administration officials are considering.
Last year, the U.S. imported about 2.3 million vehicles from Mexico and about 1.8 million from Canada. Given the 2.6-million-unit quota for both countries on potential car tariffs, that could ultimately lead to more cars being produced in Canada because it has considerably more capacity under that limit.
"Canada is actually in a good position coming out of this," said Eric Miller, president of the consulting firm Rideau Potomac Strategy Group and adviser to the Canadian government on trade affairs.
The North American-content percentage increases to 66 percent on Jan. 1, 2020, and then goes up in annual increments to 69 percent and 72 percent before hitting 75 percent in 2023.
The provision recognizes "the reality of today rather than fundamentally changing it," said Shannon K. O'Neil, an expert on Latin America at the Council on Foreign Relations, a U.S. think tank. Nonetheless, she expects it will still affect decisions by automakers to stay within those requirements.
"As GM or other companies choose their suppliers, they're going to have to be careful those percentages line up," O'Neil said.
For Mexico, the more difficult provision will be the new wage requirement for gaining tariff-free treatment – that 40 percent of the content of cars and 45 percent of trucks are made by workers earning at least $16 an hour.
Average hourly earnings for auto manufacturing workers in Mexico were $7.34 last year, compared with $28.98 in Canada and $29.08 in the U.S., according to the Center for Automotive Research.
Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo has said that 70 percent of his nation's passenger car exports could make that wage threshold "with some effort" by 2020. The remaining vehicles will need more time to reach the new levels, he said.
"Every company is just going to do the mix and match to get to the 40 percent in different ways," Rubenstein said.
In the meantime, even if they can't meet the content level for a tariff exemption, passenger cars entering the U.S. would just face the standard duty of 2.5 percent. Consequently, manufacturers with significant operations in Mexico might decide to simply pay the low U.S. tariff rather than adjust their supply chains.
The calculation will be different on imports of pickup trucks and most sport utility and crossover vehicles, which the U.S. hits with a 25 percent tariff.
"There may be some vehicles that just aren't sold in the U.S. market any more because it's not cost-effective to either pay the tariff or re-source the supply chain," said Kristin Dziczek, a vice president at the Center for Automotive Research.
The major effect of that provision probably will be a slowdown in efforts by China to send auto parts to Mexico. And over the long run, the more-stringent auto rules could make it harder for Chinese and other car and auto parts makers from entering or boosting their sales in North America.
Schuster, of LMC Automotive, said automakers could alter their supply chains to meet the high-wage requirement. For example, using an engine assembled in the U.S. would be enough for a vehicle built in Mexico to hit that 40 percent to 45 percent level.
"It's going to be a complicated math problem for each of the manufacturers," he said.
The additional requirements to track, calculate and document the value of the parts, research and other inputs will almost certainly make things more cumbersome and costly for auto and auto parts firms – some of which could be passed on to consumers.
"The whole thing is exponentially increased in terms of bureaucratic paperwork," Rubenstein said. "That's where the costs are going up, not on the production side, on the bureaucratic side to monitor this stuff, from the carmakers, part suppliers and the government."
Published: Oct. 3, 2018, 2:31 p.m. Updated: Oct. 3, 2018, 7:28 p.m.
Tags: auto, business, nafta, news
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FBIAS™ for the week ending 4/29/2016
April 30, 2016 July 7, 2017 / bigblue16	/ Leave a comment
FBIAS™ Fact-Based Investment Allocation Strategies for the week ending 4/29/2016
In the "decades" timeframe, the question of whether we are in a continuing Secular Bear Market that began in 2000 or in a new Secular Bull Market has been the subject of hot debate among economists and market watchers since 2013, when the Dow and S&P 500 exceeded their 2000 and 2007 highs. The Bear proponents point out that the long-term PE ratio (called "CAPE", for Cyclically-Adjusted Price to Earnings ratio), which has done a historically great job of marking tops and bottoms of Secular Bulls and Secular Bears, did not get down to the single-digit range that has marked the end of Bear Markets for a hundred years, but the Bull proponents say that significantly higher new highs are de-facto evidence of a Secular Bull, regardless of the CAPE. Further confusing the question, the CAPE now has risen to levels that have marked the end of Bull Markets except for times of full-blown market manias. See graph below for the 100-year view of Secular Bulls and Bears.
Even if we are in a new Secular Bull Market, market history says future returns are likely to be modest at best. The CAPE is at 25.92, down from the prior week's 26.25, after having earlier reached the level also reached at the pre-crash high in October, 2007. Since 1881, the average annual return for all ten year periods that began with a CAPE around this level have been just 3%/yr (see graph below).
This further means that above-average returns will be much more likely to come from the active management of portfolios than from passive buy-and-hold. Although a mania could come along and cause the CAPE to shoot upward from current levels (such as happened in the late 1920's and the late 1990's), in the absence of such a mania, buy-and-hold investors will likely have a long wait until the arrival of returns more typical of a rip-snorting Secular Bull Market.
The "big picture" is the months-to-years timeframe – the timeframe in which Cyclical Bulls and Bears operate. The U.S. Bull-Bear Indicator (see graph below) turned negative on January 15th, and remains in Cyclical Bear territory at 51.30, down from the prior week's 52.99.
In the intermediate picture:
The intermediate (weeks to months) indicator (see graph below) turned positive on January 26th. The indicator ended the week at 35, down 1 from the prior week's 36. Separately, the quarter-by-quarter indicator – based on domestic and international stock trend status at the start of each quarter – gave a positive indication on the first day of April for the prospects for the second quarter of 2016.
In the Secular (years to decades) timeframe (Figs. 1 & 2 above), whether we are in a new Secular Bull or still in the Secular Bear, the long-term valuation of the market is simply too high to sustain rip-roaring multi-year returns. The Bull-Bear Indicator (months to years) is negative (Fig. 3 above), indicating a new Cyclical Bear may have arrived. The Quarterly Trend Indicator (months to quarters) is positive for Q2, and the Intermediate (weeks to months) timeframe (Fig. 4 above) is positive. Therefore, with two of the three indicators positive, the U.S. equity markets are rated as Mostly Positive.
U.S. stocks ended lower for the week after losses on Thursday and Friday that erased earlier gains. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -230 points to 17,773, down -1.28%. The NASDAQ Composite, the worst of US indices, fell -130 points to 4,775, down -2.67%. Apple and several other mega-cap technology stocks weighed on the NASDAQ, more than could be offset by good reports from Facebook and Amazon. The LargeCap S&P 500 ended down -1.26% along with the MidCap S&P 400 index and the SmallCap Russell 2000 index which closed down -1.04% and -1.38% respectively. Transports and Utilities were split as the Transports fell -2.65%, but the defensive Utilities sector rose +2.33%.
International markets generally had a worse week than the U.S., except for Canada's TSX which rose +0.56% on recent strength in the energy sector. In Europe, Germany's DAX fell -3.22%, France's CAC 40 declined -3.08%, and the United Kingdom's FTSE ended down -1.09%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei plunged -4.02%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell -1.86%, while China's Shanghai Stock Exchange declined -0.71%.
In commodities, precious metals began to shine as gold gained +$61.20 an ounce to $1,294.90, up +4.96%, and silver rose over +5% to $17.89 an ounce. Crude oil climbed +5.12% to almost $46 a barrel. The industrial metal copper also gained, up +0.56%.
The month of April was positive for most equity and commodity markets, with the notable exception of U.S. tech stocks as reflected in the NASDAQ Composite's April return of -1.94%. The LargeCap S&P 500 gained a modest +0.27%, while MidCaps and SmallCaps outperformed at +1.14% and +1.51% respectively. Emerging International (EEM) gained +0.41%, and Developed International (EFA) rose a more-robust +2.22%. The greatest strength was to be found in commodity markets, paced by the headliners Gold (+4.44%) and, especially, Oil (+15.52%). Unsurprisingly, resource-dependent equity markets benefited, as reflected in Canada's TSX April gain of +3.39%.
In U.S. economic news, new-home sales fell -1.5% last month to an annual rate of 511,000 according to the Commerce Department. It was the third straight monthly decline. Economists had expected an annual rate of 522,000. New-home median prices fell to $288,000 from $293,400 a year earlier, at the same time that the number of new homes for sale rose to the highest level since the fall of 2009. On a positive note for housing, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales rose more than expected in April. The NAR's pending-home sales Index climbed +1.4% to 110.5, a 10-month high. Economists had expected a +0.5% increase. The pending-home sales Index tracks existing-home contract signings. It serves as an indicator for the actual existing-home sales closings which follow a month or two later.
The government released its initial look at first-quarter U.S. GDP and it was a disappointing +0.5% annualized growth rate—the slowest in 2 years. A similar pattern emerged in 2014 and 2015 when initial readings of -0.9% and +0.6% were followed by strong second quarter GDP readings of +4.9% and +3.9%, respectively. Digging deeper into the latest numbers, real final sales to domestic purchasers rose just +1.2%, the weakest annualized gain since the second quarter of 2013. "Real" sales strip out net exports and inventory investment, and according to Steve Blitz, chief economist at ITG Investment Research "is about as core a measure of GDP as there is."
Orders for U.S. durable goods missed expectations, climbing less than forecast in April as demand for capital equipment remained weak. The Commerce Department reported orders for items meant to last at least three years rose +0.8% after a -3.1% drop a month earlier. Despite the rise, it was a "miss" relative to expectations as the median forecast had called for a +1.9% advance. Orders for business equipment were essentially flat last month, also weaker than expected. Businesses continue to face headwinds with soft global sales and lackluster U.S. consumer spending, making it difficult to justify expanding plans for capital outlays. Shipments of non-military capital goods ex-aircraft (a measure used to calculate gross domestic product) increased +0.3% last month after declining -1.8% in February.
Also in U.S. manufacturing, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell -3.2 points to 50.4, widely missing expectations of a 53 reading and just barely remaining in expansion (>50) territory. The PMI decrease was led by a decline in new orders and an even sharper drop in order backlogs. Chief Economist of forecasting firm MNI Indicators Philip Uglow stated "This was a disappointing start to the second quarter, with the barometer barely above the neutral 50 mark in April. Against a backdrop of softer domestic demand and the slowdown abroad, panelists are now more worried about the impact a rate hike might have on business than they were at the same time last year."
In earnings news, 55% of the S&P 500 companies have now reported earnings and Thomson Reuters is forecasting that earnings will decline and overall -6.1% in the first quarter. After removing energy components, Thomson Reuters is forecasting a smaller -0.5% decline. This would mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings declines.
This past week, the Federal Reserve held its key rate steady, as expected, and gave no indication that it is ready to shift to a tightening mode anytime soon. The Fed noted in its post-meeting statement that even amid further labor market strengthening "growth in economic activity appears to have slowed" and household spending growth has moderated. Unlike the March statement, where global economic and financial concerns outweighed domestic activity, U.S. domestic growth issues took precedence in this statement. CME Group's FedWatch reports that investors are now pricing in 52% odds of a rate hike at the September Fed meeting, but only 19% odds of a move in June.
In Canada, GDP fell by -0.1% in February but still beat expectations. Canada's economy shrank for the first time in 5 months as manufacturing, mining, and energy all slowed. Statistics Canada reported that agriculture and forestry also suffered declines. Despite the contraction, February's performance still beat analyst expectations of a -0.2% drop.
In Europe, a flash reading of first-quarter Euro-Area GDP was up a better than expected +0.6% over last year's 4th quarter, and up +1.6% from the year-ago quarter. Analysts note that +1.6% is good, but growth greater than +2% is needed to get out of the state of stagnation that the region has been mired in for several years. Also in the Euro-area, the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in March from 10.4% in February. Country-specific unemployment rates show Germany's unemployment rate was at 4.2%, France's at 10%, Italy at 11.4%, and Spain at 20.4%.
In the United Kingdom, Britain's GDP grew +0.4% in the first quarter, down -0.2% from the final quarter of 2015 according to the U.K. Office for National Statistics. It was the weakest pace since the end of 2012. A significant factor was the fall in construction output which fell -0.9%. The service sector was the only major part of the economy to report growth, growing +0.6% from last quarter.
In France, the economy grew +0.5% in the first quarter on the heels of the strongest increase in consumer spending since 2004 and a pick-up in business investment. Consumer spending was up +1.2% over the first 3 months of the year and business investment rose +1.6%, the strongest increase in 5 years.
The Conference Board released a new report on future global GDP, estimating that by 2018 China's contribution to global GDP will surpass that of the U.S., making China's economy the most significant on the global stage. In 1970, the U.S. contributed 21.2% of total global economic output. This remained consistent until the year 2000. Since that time, America's percentage of world's economic output has declined steadily. In 2015, the U.S. contributed 16.7% of the world's economy. In contrast, China's contribution to global GDP was a mere 4.1% in 1970. Last year, their contribution was 15.6%. Since 1990, China's percentage of total global output has risen every year with one exception, the "Asian Contagion" of 1998.
In Japan, the Bank of Japan surprised economists by voting against more stimulus. Despite weak inflation and household spending, the central bank decided against fresh measures to stimulate the economy. Although it kept its negative interest rate policy and voted to continue its massive asset purchase schemes, the bank refrained from any extra measures to kick-start the stagnant economy. The dollar plunged -2.35% against the yen following the news and the Nikkei fell -3.5%.
Finally, the Gallup Organization released a poll revealing that only slightly more than half of Americans say they currently have money in the stock market, even including 401(k) and IRA holdings. What's striking about the poll is that it is back to the lowest rate in the survey's 19 year history.
In 2007, nearly 2/3's of Americans reported investing in the stock market, but that percentage has shrunk steadily since that high-water mark, representing many millions of Americans who have left the stock market.
According to Gallup, all American income segments are less likely to have stock investments now than before the Great Recession, but stock ownership for middle class Americans (with annual household incomes ranging from $30,000-$74,999) has plunged the most. The -22% drop for the middle class is more than double the amount among higher and lower income groups.
Among age groups, millennials (18 to 34) showed the greatest decline in market participation, dropping from 52% all the way to 38%. The so-called "robo-advisors", catering to millennials, seem to be wooing a surprisingly disinterested market segment.
(sources: all index return data from Yahoo Finance; Reuters, Barron's, Wall St Journal, Bloomberg.com, ft.com, guggenheimpartners.com, ritholtz.com, markit.com, financialpost.com, Eurostat, Statistics Canada, Yahoo! Finance, stocksandnews.com, marketwatch.com, wantchinatimes.com, BBC, 361capital.com, pensionpartners.com, cnbc.com)
The ranking relationship (shown in Fig. 5) between the defensive SHUT sectors ("S"=Staples [a.k.a. consumer non-cyclical], "H"=Healthcare, "U"=Utilities and "T"=Telecom) and the offensive DIME sectors ("D"=Discretionary [a.k.a. Consumer Cyclical], "I"=Industrial, "M"=Materials, "E"=Energy), is one way to gauge institutional investor sentiment in the market. The average ranking of Defensive SHUT sectors fell to 17.8, down from the prior week's 16.5, while the average ranking of Offensive DIME sectors rose to 9.0 from the prior week's 9.5. The Offensive DIME sectors expanded their ranking lead over the Defensive SHUT sectors. Note: these are "ranks", not "scores", so smaller numbers are higher ranks and larger numbers are lower ranks.
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Dave Anthony, CFP®, RMA®
04/25/2016 Retirement Income Show with Dave Anthony
April 25, 2016 May 24, 2016 / bigblue16	/ Leave a comment
https://anthonycapital.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/r-i-p-4-25-16.mp3
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Even if we are in a new Secular Bull Market, market history says future returns are likely to be modest at best. The CAPE is at 26.25, little changed from the prior week's 26.28, after having earlier reached the level also reached at the pre-crash high in October, 2007. Since 1881, the average annual return for all ten year periods that began with a CAPE around this level have been just 3%/yr (see graph below).
The "big picture" is the months-to-years timeframe – the timeframe in which Cyclical Bulls and Bears operate. The U.S. Bull-Bear Indicator (see graph below) turned negative on January 15th, and remains in Cyclical Bear territory at 52.99, up from the prior week's 51.12.
The intermediate (weeks to months) indicator (see graph below) turned positive on January 26th. The indicator ended the week at 36, up 1 from the prior week's 35. Separately, the quarter-by-quarter indicator – based on domestic and international stock trend status at the start of each quarter – gave a positive indication on the first day of April for the prospects for the second quarter of 2016.
In the Secular (years to decades) timeframe (Figs. 1 & 2 above), whether we are in a new Secular Bull or still in the Secular Bear, the long-term valuation of the market is simply too high to sustain rip-roaring multi-year returns. The Bull-Bear Indicator (months to years) is negative (Fig. 3 above), indicating a new Cyclical Bear has arrived. The Quarterly Trend Indicator (months to quarters) is positive for Q2, and the Intermediate (weeks to months) timeframe (Fig. 4 above) is positive. Therefore, with two of the three indicators positive, the U.S. equity markets are rated as Mostly Positive.
The major U.S. market benchmarks ended the week mostly higher. Poor performance from some of the first technology stocks to report earnings weighed on the NASDAQ, which ended the week with a moderate loss, but the other benchmarks established multi-month highs by the middle of the week. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 106 points (+0.59%) and retook the 18,000 level, closing at 18,003. The LargeCap S&P 500 index added half a percent to close at 2,091. The NASDAQ composite, weighed down by earnings misses from Microsoft and Alphabet/Google lost -0.65%, closing at 4,906. MidCaps and SmallCaps were strong as the S&P 400 MidCap index gained +0.84% and the Russell 2000 SmallCap index tacked on +1.39%.
International markets were also mostly higher. Canada's TSX had a strong week, up +1.74%. In Europe, the United Kingdom was the only major market that ended down, losing -0.53%, but mainland European bourses were strong with Germany's DAX rising +3.2%, Italy's Milan FTSE gaining +2.35%, and France's CAC 40 adding on +1.66%. Major markets in Asia were mixed with Japan's Nikkei rallying +4.3%, but China's Shanghai Stock Exchange fell -3.86%.
Commodities were mostly in the green with the industrial metal copper up an impressive +5.34%. Precious metals were mixed, as Silver rallied +4.77%, now over $17 an ounce at $17.03, but Gold retreated slightly to $1,233.70 an ounce, down -0.17%. Oil had its 3rd straight week of gains, up +4.79%, ending the week at $43.75 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude.
In U.S. economic news, initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 247,000 last week to the lowest level since 1973, according to the Labor Department. Economists had forecasted a rise to 265,000. This multi-decade low in claims suggests that the labor market is continuing to tighten, which should be reflected positively in higher wages as well as encouraging unengaged workers to re-enter the workforce.
In housing, homebuilder sentiment held steady for a third straight month in April with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) index coming in at 58, while expectations were for a reading of 59. Readings over 50 indicate growth. The NAHB index hit a 10-year high of 65 last October. The current sales index declined 2 points to 63, but the future sales gauge gained a point to 62. Also in housing, existing home sales rose +5.1% last month to an annualized rate of 5.33 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors, beating expectations for a rise to 5.268 million. Prices of existing-home sales rose +5.7% versus the same time last year to an average of $222,700 as the supply of homes in the market remained relatively tight at 1.98 million, or about 4 and ½ months' worth. However, the Commerce Department reported late in the week that builders broke ground on an annualized 1.089 million new-home units in March, which was down -8.8% and at the lowest level since last October. Economists had expected a 1.1167 million rate. Building permits also fell, down -7.7% to 1.086 million, missing expectations of 1.2 million.
In manufacturing, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index fell into contraction at -1.6 in April from 12.4 in March. Analysts had expected a reading of 9. March's positive reading had followed a string of 6 consecutive negative readings. New orders came in flat from March's relatively strong 15.7. The jobs index crashed to -18.5 from March's -1.1—the worst reading since July 2009. Markit's flash US-wide Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) seems to have confirmed the bad news as their reading of manufacturing sentiment fell in April to its lowest level in 6 ½ years. The underlying U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in April from 51.5 in March—that is its lowest level since September 2009. Softer rates of output and new business growth along with a weaker gain in employment were the main factors weighing on the index, according to Markit.
In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals introduced a budget that sharply boosts spending on a variety of initiatives from infrastructure to social benefits. Because of that fiscal stimulus, the Bank of Canada refrained from cutting interest rates, helping to send the Canadian dollar sharply higher. Economists suggest that Canada's move benefits the global economy as much as it does its own. They suggest that the higher dollar will be a drag on Canada's trade sector, diluting the stimulative impact, but that Canada's loss will be the world's gain. Canada appears to be executing the agreement that finance ministers and central bankers reached when the top 20 economies met just recently in Washington, namely that they should rely less on monetary and more on fiscal policy to rejuvenate growth.
In Europe, Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB) said the ECB remains ready to step up stimulus if the outlook for the area worsens. The ECB president told reporters that "it is essential to preserve an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation" after policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at record lows and maintained their asset purchasing program at 80 billion euros (US$90 billion) a month. The Governing Council "if warranted to achieve its objective, will act by using all instruments available within its mandate," he said. German politicians have been especially critical of the ECB's policies, which they say burdens savers and wreaks havoc on retirement plans.
In the United Kingdom, manufacturing, housing, and other economic measurements have shown clear signs that the UK economy has been losing momentum in recent months. During that time, the unemployment figures have remained the lone bright spot with the jobless rate slipping to 5.1%. It was only a matter of time, though, before the labor market caught up to the rest of the economy and that moment appears to have arrived. The latest figures from the Office of National Statistics were poor. Unemployment rose on both measures used by the government, the labor force survey and the claimant count. The Labor Force Survey increased by 21,000 – the first increase in nearly a year.
In Germany, the finance ministry said that it expects the country's economy to post robust growth for the first quarter of 2016 due to strong consumption amid an improving labor market, rising wages, and lower crude oil prices. On a negative note, though, it lowered the country's GDP growth forecast for 2016 and 2017 to +1.7% and +1.5%, respectively. The ministry's monthly report also forecast that overall tax revenue will increase by a robust +7.1% year-over-year in March.
In China, billionaire investor George Soros said China's debt-fueled economy resembles the U.S. in 2007-08, just before credit markets seized up and spurred a global recession. China's March credit-growth figures should be viewed as a warning sign, Soros said at an Asia Society event in New York. He asserted that "most of the money that [Chinese] banks are supplying is needed to keep bad debts and loss-making enterprises alive."
In Japan, exports fell for a 6th straight month last month, but an even sharper decline in imports pushed the trade surplus to its highest level in more than 5 years. Customs data showed exports fell -6.8% from a year earlier to 6.46 trillion yen ($59.2 billion) while imports plunged -14.9% to 5.7 trillion yen ($52.2 billion). The resulting balance was the highest since fall of 2010, but this is not how anyone would want to expand the trade surplus!
Finally, should you "kick 'em when they're down", or "pick 'em when they're down"? Recent research has shown that asset classes (not individual stocks) that have been down for 3 or more consecutive years are extremely good buys. Researcher and money manager Meb Faber has recently published work that shows that asset classes that have been down 3 years in a row, (which is quite rare, only occurring 2% of the time per Faber), produced an average of more than +50% return in the following 2 years. Asset classes down 4 and even 5 years in a row, even rarer, produce even higher subsequent 2-year returns. Some 2-year return examples from the last several decades: US Bonds (down 1978, 1979, 1980): +48%; US equities (down 2000, 2001, 2002): +43%; Foreign Developed (down 2000, 2001, 2002): +69%; Foreign Emerging (down 2000, 2001, 2002): +96%. Individual country indices are similar: if down 3 years in a row, +56%. Sectors and industries: if down 3 years in a row, +59%.
Which brings us to the present: the Emerging Market and Commodities asset classes have both been down 3 years in a row. The last time that Emerging Markets were down 3 in a row (as noted above), that asset class rocketed +96% in the next 2 years. Commodities have never been down 3 years in a row before, so we have no precedent to look back on, but there is no good reason to believe commodities shouldn't participate in this "mean reversion" behavior, as well!
The ranking relationship (shown in Fig. 5) between the defensive SHUT sectors ("S"=Staples [a.k.a. consumer non-cyclical], "H"=Healthcare, "U"=Utilities and "T"=Telecom) and the offensive DIME sectors ("D"=Discretionary [a.k.a. Consumer Cyclical], "I"=Industrial, "M"=Materials, "E"=Energy), is one way to gauge institutional investor sentiment in the market. The average ranking of Defensive SHUT sectors fell to 16.5, down from the prior week's 12.5, while the average ranking of Offensive DIME sectors rose to 9.5 from the prior week's 10.3. The Offensive DIME sectors expanded their ranking lead over the Defensive SHUT sectors. Note: these are "ranks", not "scores", so smaller numbers are higher ranks and larger numbers are lower ranks.
04/18/2016 Retirement Income Show
In today's show we interview Matt Ure, director of the Anthony Capital, LLC office in San Antonio, TX, about federal benefits and learn about the most common things that federal employees overlook when they are retiring.
FBIAS™ Fact Based-Investment Allocation Strategies for the week ending 4/15/2016
Even if we are in a new Secular Bull Market, market history says future returns are likely to be modest at best. The CAPE is at 26.28, up from the prior week's 25.86, after having earlier reached the level also reached at the pre-crash high in October, 2007. Since 1881, the average annual return for all ten year periods that began with a CAPE around this level have been just 3%/yr (see graph below).
There was broad strength in U.S. equities last week as every major equity index ended green on the week and reached their highest levels in several months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +320 points, ending the week at 17,897 (+1.82%). The S&P 500 LargeCap index gained +1.62%, the MidCap S&P 400 added +2.6%, and the SmallCap Russell 2000 index was up +3.06%. Transports and Utilities were also both positive with Transports up +3.1% on renewed strength in energy, and defensive Utilities even managed a positive close, up +0.36%.
In international markets, Canada's Toronto Stock Exchange rose +1.79% along with almost all other major international markets. Strength was definitely in Asia as Japan's Nikkei rose a hefty +6.49%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained +4.6%, and China's Shanghai Stock Exchange added +3.1%. In Europe, the United Kingdom was up +2.25%. Germany and France both rose a very strong and identical +4.46%.
In commodities, silver was the big winner up 6.2% to $16.31 an ounce. That was an unusual divergence from Gold which actually was in the red for the week, down -$5.50 an ounce to $1234.60. Oil continued its strong rebound gaining +5.1% for the week to $41.71 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The industrial metal copper also had a strong week, up +3.2%.
In U.S. economic news, jobless claims this week were the lowest since 1973 as initial claims fell 13,000 last week to 253,000, according to the Labor Department. Jobless claims have now remained below 300,000 for more than a year, indicating solid hiring.
Financial markets have staged a remarkable recovery from the worst start to a year in decades, but the recovery isn't flowing through to worker paychecks. Over the past 10 weeks the Treasury Department reported that federal income and employment taxes withheld from paychecks are up only +2.7% from a year ago—only half the growth rate of this time last year. The weak tax revenue report doesn't quite mesh with the 2.8 million (or 2%) gain in payroll jobs over the past year and +2.3% average wage increase reported from other sources. Those numbers should add up to an annual gain of over +4% in withheld taxes, so the +2.7% number is surprisingly puny. Unlike payroll data, tax withholding data are not subject to later revision and are absolute numbers—not based on sampled data.
Optimism among small-business owners fell -0.3 point in March to a 2-year low of 92.6. Over the past 15 months there's been a -7.7 point decline in the index. The size of the decline is flashing a warning signal of a possible recession, according to the National Federation of Independent Business. NFIB's chief economist William Dunkelberg stated that April's Index of Small Business Optimism will carry special significance because it may determine whether a recession alarm should be rung or not. The NFIB's overall index hit a post-recession peak of 100.3 in December 2014, but it has remained below 100 since then.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose +0.1% last month, with prices ex-food and energy also up +0.1%. Economists had expected a +0.2% rise in both consumer prices and core CPI. Year-over-year consumer prices are up +0.9%. Core inflation was 2.2%, down -0.1% from February mitigating concerns that inflation is ramping up on services costs. The Fed has set a 2% inflation target, but Fed watchers note that the policymakers' favorite gauge is the PCE deflator and core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures). That measure was 1.7% as of February, not quite as warm as CPI.
U.S. Retail sales for March disappointed, down -0.3%, while expectations had been for a +0.1% increase. Removing the volatile autos and gas components, sales were up +0.1%, but this also lagged expectations.
Industrial production fell sharply in March, according to the Federal Reserve, renewing concerns about the nation's manufacturing sector. Industrial output of the nation's manufacturing, mining, and utilities fell -0.6% last month, far worse than the -0.1% decline expected. On a regionally-positive note, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index showed surprising strength rising to 9.56 this month from 0.62 in March. Economists weren't expecting such a significant gain. The report showed broad improvement with order growth the best since late 2014 and the employment subindex moving to positive territory.
According to the Fed's Beige Book, "most districts said that economic growth was in the modest to moderate range and that contacts expected growth would remain in that range going forward." It also noted a general pickup in manufacturing activity, which had been negatively affected by a rising dollar. Of the Fed's 12 regional reserve banks, only Cleveland reported a decline in overall employment and Cleveland and Kansas City were the only banks that reported a decline in manufacturing activity. The report painted a generally improving picture of the U.S. economy two weeks ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, where officials gather to discuss their outlook and to set benchmark interest rates. As of now, investors see essentially zero probability that the FOMC will lift the federal funds target range this month, based on prices in fed funds futures contracts.
In international economic news, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that a prolonged period of slow growth has left the global economy more exposed to negative shocks and raised the risk that the world will slide into stagnation. The IMF cut its world expansion forecast, as weak exports and slowing investment dim economic prospects in the U.S., a consumption-tax hike undermines growth in Japan, and a decline in the price of everything from oil to wheat continues to weigh on commodities producers. The IMF expects the world economy to grow +3.2% this year, down from its earlier prediction of +3.4% in January according to the quarterly update to its World Economic Outlook. The weaker outlook will likely weigh on the central bankers and finance ministers who gather in Washington this week for spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada held its key interest rate steady and raised the economic outlook for 2016 as it sees new government stimulus outweighing economic headwinds. The Bank of Canada kept its main interest rate at 0.5%, and stated that slowing foreign demand, downward revisions to business investment, and a strengthening currency all weighed on the country's future economic outlook.
In the United Kingdom, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), the country's most prominent business lobbying organization, stated that an exit from the European Union would cause a serious shock to the economy and could cost 100 billion pounds ($145 billion) in lost economic output and 950,000 jobs by 2020. Monday's report by the CBI is the latest in a string of industry reports expressing concerns over slipping investor confidence caused by Britain's potential exit from the EU.
In Germany, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble struck back at international criticism of Berlin's budget policies, noting that Germany can't save the global economy by spending more on social programs. "We are not the cause of global economic problems," he stated at a joint news conference with Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann. The comments highlight Berlin's growing isolation in international policy circles as it seeks to rein in government spending and curb easy-money policies while central bankers elsewhere are pursuing paths of fresh economic stimulus and domestic spending.
In Japan, Japanese officials were warned not to devalue the yen when Taro Aso, Japanese Finance Minister, told his U.S. counterpart Jack Lew that he was very concerned about the surge that took the yen above Y108 to the dollar earlier this week. The U.S. Treasury reported that both men had agreed to honor their G20 exchange rate commitments limiting Japan's options to deal with the stronger yen. The stronger yen is raising the cost of Japanese products in international markets, which consequently has an adverse effect on the nation's economy.
China's economy expanded +6.7% in the first quarter versus a year earlier, the government said. It was the smallest year-over-year increase since the first quarter of 2009, but it also signaled that the world's second largest economy is stabilizing. Several other reports also indicated solid growth: March retail sales rose +10.5% versus a year earlier, industrial production rose +6.8% versus a year earlier, and fixed asset investment rose +10.7% in Q1 versus a year earlier.
Finally, it is no secret that the Apple iPhone has been a radical and revolutionary innovation in the tech space. On January 9, 2007 the late Apple CEO Steve Jobs took the stage at the Moscone Center in San Francisco and introduced the first iPhone. "Today, Apple is going to reinvent the phone," Jobs proclaimed.
However, the iPhone didn't just reinvent the phone—it also reinvented the digital camera.
The latest iPhone camera snaps better images than almost all traditional mass-market digital cameras, and is approaching the quality of many high-end SLR cameras. One consequence of the iPhones' omnipresence is the multiyear plunge in digital camera sales as shown in the graphic below. The market for so-called "point-and-shoot" cameras has been essentially wiped out, with sales falling for 29 consecutive months.
The high-end SLR market has held up much better, but it is a comparatively tiny market. Industry analyst Wee Teck Loo says, in a bit of understatement, "Canon has launched its EOS 7D Mark II, a high-performance SLR able to meet the needs of professional photographers and while it has been very well received, it is unlikely to prevent the market from further contracting."
The ranking relationship (shown in Fig. 5) between the defensive SHUT sectors ("S"=Staples [a.k.a. consumer non-cyclical], "H"=Healthcare, "U"=Utilities and "T"=Telecom) and the offensive DIME sectors ("D"=Discretionary [a.k.a. Consumer Cyclical], "I"=Industrial, "M"=Materials, "E"=Energy), is one way to gauge institutional investor sentiment in the market. The average ranking of Defensive SHUT sectors rose to 10.3, up from the prior week's 10.8, while the average ranking of Offensive DIME sectors rose to 10.3 from the prior week's 11.8. The Offensive DIME sectors grabbed the ranking lead from the Defensive SHUT sectors. Note: these are "ranks", not "scores", so smaller numbers are higher ranks and larger numbers are lower ranks.
FBIAS™ for the week ending 4/8/2016
April 9, 2016 July 5, 2017 / bigblue16	/ Leave a comment
FBIAS™ Fact-Based Investment Allocation Strategies for the week ending 4/8/2016
The intermediate (weeks to months) indicator (see graph below) turned positive on January 26th. The indicator ended the week at 36 (the maximum value possible), unchanged from the prior week. Separately, the quarter-by-quarter indicator – based on domestic and international stock trend status at the start of each quarter – gave a positive indication on the first day of April for the prospects for the second quarter of 2016.
This week was marked by broad weakness in the U.S. equity market as all major indexes lost ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -215 points to end at 17,577, down -1.2%. The NASDAQ declined -1.3% to close at 4,850. Both Transports and Utilities lost ground, declining -1.9% and -1.6%, respectively. Large caps showed slight relative strength with the S&P 500 declining "only" -1.2%, while the S&P 400 midcap index declined 1.69% and the small cap Russell 2000 gave up -1.8%. It was the S&P 500 Index's biggest weekly drop in over 2 months.
In international markets, Canada's Toronto Stock Exchange declined -0.3%. The United Kingdom's FTSE was the only major market to shrug off the broad weakness closing up +0.95%. Germany's DAX gave up -1.7% and France's CAC 40 lost -0.44%. In Asia, all major markets were likewise down with China's Shanghai Stock Exchange declining -0.8%, Japan's Nikkei dropped -2.1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng losing -0.6%.
In commodities, the industrial metal copper was down a third straight week, losing -3.78%. Precious metals, though, were higher with Gold up +1.65% to $1,243.80 an ounce. Silver rose +2.22% to end the week at $15.38 an ounce. Oil was the big winner in commodities with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rising +8.4% to end the week at $39.72.
In U.S. economic news, the American Bankers Association reported that home-equity loan delinquencies fell below their 15-year average in the 4th quarter, down -0.23% to just 2.86% of all accounts. James Chessen, ABA's chief economist stated, "It's been a long, rocky road, but home equity delinquencies have finally worked their way back to historical norms."
The Commerce Department reported that new orders for manufactured goods fell -1.7% in February, marking the 3rd decline in 4 months. Ex-transportation, factory orders fell -0.8%, down a 4th straight month. Core capital goods orders, which are viewed as a proxy for future business investment, declined -2.5% versus January. But on a positive note, overall factory orders were slightly higher versus a year earlier – the first positive year-over-year reading in a year and a half. Contrary to the Commerce Department's reports, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index and several regional factory gauges, industrial activity may have rebounded in March with ISM's national report pointing to solid gains in orders coming in at 51.8, the highest in seven months. In the details of the report, the employment gauge pointed to new hiring, new order growth picked up, and the export gauges rose to a new one-year high to 58.5.
ISM's service sector index showed faster growth in March after a two-year low last month, supporting evidence that the U.S. economy may be firming up as it heads into the spring. The services gauge rose +1.1 last month to 54.5, rising further into expansion.
Wholesale inventories tumbled at their fastest rate in nearly 3 years, hinting that economic growth in the first-quarter was probably weaker than expected. Wholesale inventories have fallen for the last 5 months as companies work to reduce high stockpile levels.
In international economic news, Canada's economy added 41,000 jobs last month – more than 4 times what economists were expecting. Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey showed there were more people employed in Alberta, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, and Saskatchewan. Employment declined in Prince Edward Island and was little changed in the other provinces. By sector, health care was the winner with 25,000 new jobs. Manufacturing, which had been showing some encouraging signs the last few months, lost 32,000. The natural resources sector, which includes mining and oil and gas, lost 2,100 jobs.
In the United Kingdom, there was a double-dose of bad economic news as factory output fell to the lowest level since 2013, while the trade gap remained large. The duo of disappointing reports added to the recent spate of negative news including the worst decline in productivity since 2008 and the service sector's slowest growth in 3 years.
On the European mainland, there was positive news in Germany where rating agency Moody's said that Germany expected a slight acceleration of its growth to +1.8% due to robust domestic demand. In France, stuck in economic doldrums for years, the popular economic minister Emmanuel Macron has launched his own political movement to promote "fresh ideas" ahead of next year's presidential election. The movement is known as En Marche! (In Motion) and is "neither right-nor left-wing" and aims to promote "economic, social, and political freedom."
In Asia, China's Premier Li Keqiang reported that economic indicators showed signs of improvement in the first quarter, but complained that a sluggish world economy and volatile markets are not providing a firm foundation. Li said the overall economic situation was nonetheless better than expected and he was confident the government would be able to maintain medium to high economic growth despite the difficulties.
Japanese finance minister Taro Aso is dealing with the difficult situation of a rising Yen which threatens the government's hopes of stronger growth. The currency hit a fresh high of 107.6 against the dollar this week. Aso said that the government, which wants a lower yen in order to spur export demand, would take steps as needed to counter what he termed "one-sided" moves in the currency market. The Bank of Japan surprised investors earlier this year when it announced a move towards negative interest rates in an attempt to spur investment and keep the yen low, and the recent runup in the value of the yen has been very frustrating to Japan's central planners.
Finally, it has been noted several times in this space that corporate profits are falling (called by some an "earnings recession"). Intuitively, one would think that falling earnings would result in a falling market since, as CNBC's Larry Kudlow frequently says, "Profits are the mother's milk of the stock market." But Mark Hulbert of marketwatch.com, citing data from Ned Davis Research, says "not so fast!" It turns out that the stock market's sweet spot, in terms of earnings growth, is a fairly tolerant range of year-over-year profit change from +5% down to 20%, as shown in the following chart.
The ranking relationship (shown in Fig. 5) between the defensive SHUT sectors ("S"=Staples [a.k.a. consumer non-cyclical], "H"=Healthcare, "U"=Utilities and "T"=Telecom) and the offensive DIME sectors ("D"=Discretionary [a.k.a. Consumer Cyclical], "I"=Industrial, "M"=Materials, "E"=Energy), is one way to gauge institutional investor sentiment in the market. The average ranking of Defensive SHUT sectors rose to 10.8, up from the prior week's 12.3, while the average ranking of Offensive DIME sectors fell to 11.8 from the prior week's 10.3. The Defensive SHUT sectors retook the lead from the Offensive DIME sectors. Note: these are "ranks", not "scores", so smaller numbers are higher ranks and larger numbers are lower ranks.
April 4, 2016 May 24, 2016 / bigblue16	/ Leave a comment
https://anthonycapital.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/r-i-p-4-4-16.mp3
The "big picture" is the months-to-years timeframe – the timeframe in which Cyclical Bulls and Bears operate. The U.S. Bull-Bear Indicator (see graph below) turned negative on January 15th, and remains in Cyclical Bear territory at 51.21 up from the prior week's 49.03.
Equities continued their strong rally from the February lows, fueled by hopes of continued help from central banks around the world in the form of low – or even negative – interest rates. The S&P 500 LargeCap index is now back into positive territory for 2016, along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 400 MidCap index, while the SmallCap Russell 2000 and NASDAQ Composite indexes still are negative for the year. For the week, the S&P 500 gained +36 points closing at 2,072, up +1.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added +277 points, ending the week at 17,792 (+1.58%). The S&P 400 MidCap index and SmallCap Russell 2000 made up some lost ground on their larger brethren, gaining +2.67% and +3.53% respectively. The NASDAQ Composite index is once again nearing the 5000-level at 4,914, up a strong +2.95%. Much of the market's gains came on Tuesday following a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to the Economic Club of New York. Investors were enthused by Yellen's cautious tone regarding hiking interest rates further and her acknowledgement of slowing growth overseas.
In international markets Canada's Toronto Stock Exchange gained +0.62% despite continued weakness in oil. In Europe, the United Kingdom's FTSE rose +0.65%, while on Europe's mainland Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 both ended down, -0.58% and -0.17% respectively. The worst-performer on the continent was Italy's Milan FTSE, which declined -2.14% for the week. In Asia, markets were mixed as China's Shanghai Stock Exchange rose +1.01%, while Japan's Nikkei dropped a steep -4.9%.
In commodities, global growth and particularly China weighed on markets. The industrial metal copper retreated over -3% while a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil tumbled -7.48% to $36.63. Oil prices fell sharply on Friday after a member of the Saudi royal family stated that the country will be unwilling to cap production unless an agreement can be reached with Iran and other major producers. Precious metals ended mixed with Gold rising +0.53% to $1,223.20 an ounce retracing some of last week's drop, while silver ended down -1% at $15.05.
March Summary: The month of March came in like a Lion…and pretty much stayed that way. It was a strongly positive month for nearly all equity indexes worldwide, including the U.S. The strongest gain was logged by those indices hurt the most during the earlier correction: the Russell 2000 SmallCap and the S&P 400 MidCap indices. They notched gains of +7.8% and +8.3% respectively for March (though even that gain was not quite enough to pull the Russell 2000 into the green for the year). The LargeCap S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial indices didn't do too shabbily, either, notching gains of +6.6% and +7.1% respectively. It must be noted though, that as strong as the gains were, they were pretty much recovering ground lost in the earlier declines of January and early February. Developed and Emerging International market averages both did well, too, rising +6.58% (EFA) and +12.96% (EEM) respectively.
First Quarter Summary: For the first quarter of 2016, the net results masked the wild ups and downs within the quarter. Well known market maven Art Cashin of UBS appropriately describes this kind of market as "…like commuting by roller coaster. Lots of chills and spills, but you ended up pretty much where you started." The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 posted gains with a rise of +1.49% and +0.77%, respectively – both accomplished in the very last days of the quarter. The NASDAQ composite had its worst quarter since 2009, down -2.75%, and the SmallCap Russell 2000 also declined in the first quarter, down -1.92%. Developed International markets slipped in the quarter, down 2.66% on average (EFA), while Emerging Markets rose a strong +6.40% (EEM). Emerging Markets were in part propelled by a monster +27.18% gain in Brazil (EWZ). The Zika virus, floundering Olympics preparations and poor ticket sales, political scandals in the Presidential office with threats of impeachment – none of these could stop the Brazil market's rebound from the thorough pounding it took in 2015, when it lost -42%. Now that's a rollercoaster for sure!
In U.S. economic news, 215,000 jobs were added last month, matching expectations. The jobless rate ticked up to 5%, however, as jobseekers flooded into the labor force at the fastest pace since 2007. The jobless rate rose due to a steady flow of jobseekers that entered or reentered the labor force, pushing the participation rate up to 63% – a two-year high. The roughly 2.4 million people that joined or re-joined the labor force over the past year where the most since the beginning of 2007. Retail led the way with a gain of +47,700 jobs, but leisure and hospitality, construction, and health care all showed strong job growth as well. Manufacturing continued to shed jobs, however.
Private-sector employers continue to hire at a steady rate this month, adding 200,000 jobs, According to the ADP National Employment Report. Services firms accounted for +191,000 new hires, accounting for nearly all of the gains. Small firms were responsible for +85,700 jobs, while large employers added +38,800.
Research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas announced that corporations plan to lay off 48,200 workers in March. The 12 month layoff total has reached 643,000, the highest since early 2012. On a positive note, layoffs have receded the past two months after peaking at 75,000 in January. John Challenger, the outplacement firm's chief executive stated "it is not just the energy sector that is seeing heavier job cuts. Layoff announcements have increased significantly in the retail and computer sectors as well."
Private wage and salary income fell an annualized $12.9 billion in February, or 0.2%, the Commerce Department reported as income gains continue to decelerate. Overall, personal income rose +$23 billion, or +0.2%, but the gains came in areas that won't benefit consumers that much. Rental income, government social benefits, and employer contributions to employee pensions and insurance were the main factors responsible for the gain. Softening in income growth has historically coincided with a slowdown in consumption. Personal consumption expenditures rose a mere +0.1% in February, for an annualized growth rate of +2.1%. In the same timeframe, the annualized gain in private wage income has slowed to +3.6% from +5.6%.
In housing, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for January showed the 20-city benchmark index rose +5.7% over the past year. Portland, Oregon saw the greatest appreciation, up +11.8% in the 12-month period while Chicago saw the least, up just +2.1%.
Consumer confidence rose to 96.2, up two points from February and above the high range of economists' estimates, according to the Conference Board. The report isn't exceptional, but it is moving in a positive direction. Of the survey respondents, 24.9% expressed the belief that current business conditions are "good", down -0.6% from last month. Those saying that business conditions are "bad" retreated slightly to 18.8% from 19%.
US manufacturing moved back into expansion, according to a key factory index. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 51.8 last month, crossing the neutral 50 level into expansion territory for the first time since last August. Economists had expected a reading of 50.5. New orders and production gauges were both solidly positive, despite weakness in the employment gauge which dropped -0.4 point to 48.1. More output with less employment is good for productivity, at least.
As mentioned above, this week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave a speech to the Economic Club of New York, stating that it was appropriate for U.S. central bankers to "proceed cautiously" in raising interest rates because the global economy presents heightened risks. Fed officials left their benchmark lending rate target unchanged this month at 0.25% to 0.5% while revising down their estimate for the number of rate increases this year to two hikes instead of the four projected in December.
In the Eurozone, Markit released its latest manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for the Eurozone at 51.6 last month, up +0.4 point. Germany remained in expansion at 50.7, up +0.2 point, however France slipped to 49.6—its lowest reading in 7 months and slightly back in contraction territory. France also reported that consumer prices remained in deflation last month, falling -0.1%. Markit's chief economist labeled France as the "weakest link" in Europe right now.
In China, the ratings agency Standard & Poor's has cut its outlook on China's government credit to "negative" from "stable" as it believes rebalancing of the world's second largest economy would take place more slowly than had been expected. China's credit rating stands at AA- with a negative outlook.
In Japan, business sentiment among Japan's big manufacturers deteriorated to the lowest in nearly three years, and is expected to worsen, according to a closely watched central bank survey. Big firms also plan to cut capital expenditures in the current fiscal year. Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at SMBC Friend Securities remarked, "There's no sign of corporate sentiment bottoming in coming months."
Finally, this past summer it was widely noted that U.S. corporate earnings growth had stagnated. The equity markets subsequently also stagnated – along with a lot of volatility, including the worst start to a year in the stock market ever. Unfortunately, the earnings picture hasn't improved much since then, and the longer-term outlook seems to be deteriorating.
Last Friday, the government's Bureau of Economic Analysis released data showing the corporate profits declined -11.5% in 2015. Excluding adjustments for inventory valuation and capital consumption, the decline was still -7.6% as shown on the chart below from the St. Louis Fed.
FactSet's John Butters observed: "For Q1 2016, the estimated earnings decline is -8.7%. If the corporate profits index reports a decline in earnings for Q1, it will mark the first time the index has seen four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q4 2008 through Q3 2009."
The ranking relationship (shown in Fig. 5) between the defensive SHUT sectors ("S"=Staples [a.k.a. consumer non-cyclical], "H"=Healthcare, "U"=Utilities and "T"=Telecom) and the offensive DIME sectors ("D"=Discretionary [a.k.a. Consumer Cyclical], "I"=Industrial, "M"=Materials, "E"=Energy), is one way to gauge institutional investor sentiment in the market. The average ranking of Defensive SHUT sectors remained unchanged from the prior week at 12.3, while the average ranking of Offensive DIME sectors fell to 10.3 from the prior week's 9.8. The Offensive DIME sectors retained their lead over the Defensive SHUT sectors. Note: these are "ranks", not "scores", so smaller numbers are higher ranks and larger numbers are lower ranks.


text:
Kenton House Hotel
1-7 Hillcrest Road, Ealing, London W5 2JL, England
Kenton House Hotel London is located in Ealing in West London and provides friendly accommodation surrounded by green areas.
Click here to book Kenton House Hotel
Kenton House Hotel London provides a range of facilities to help you unwind during your UK study stay. After a busy day of studying and sightseeing you can join your fellow guests in the lounge and watch the television or enjoy a game of pool in the pool table room at Kenton House Hotel London. All single, double, twin, triple and quad guestrooms contain a TV too, so you can relax in the comfort and privacy of your own room, which will also be equipped with a telephone, hairdryer and bathroom.
London Kenton House Hotel has forty guestrooms, so you'll have the chance to get to know the staff at this small and friendly two star hotel. A number of green areas surround London Kenton House Hotel - including a pitch and putt course, cricket pitch, sports ground and park - so you can enjoy a walk on a sunny day. Ealing is well known for its film studios, which were used for feature films in the 1940s and 1950s. Ealing Studios made the famous 'Ealing comedies' and is now owned by the BBC.
Where is Kenton House Hotel Located?
Kenton House Hotel is located in Ealing, West London (nr Heathrow) Regional Map, Local Map
A tube trip from Hanger Lane Station will provide you with access to a number of language schools and universities. Birkbeck University and University College London are within easy reach (12 stops to Tottenham Court Road), as are Shane English School London and United International College (10 stops to Bond Street). London School of English is around a ten minute journey away (4 stops to Shepherd's Bush).
Situated in Zone 3, Hanger Lane is the nearest station to Kenton House Hotel London. Take a tube journey of around 20 minutes and you can visit Marble Arch and Hyde Park via (9 stops). Stay on the train for two more stops and you can enjoy a day of shopping on Oxford Street, Carnaby Street and Regents Street (11 stops to Oxford Circus).
Located in the fashinable area of Ealing, Kenton House Hotel London is within easy reach of a number of shops, bars and restaraunts on Ealing Broadway. Access into Central London is easy, giving you the chance to explore the many attractions in the capital during your study stay in the UK.
Kenton House Hotel Facilities
Pay-Phones
Alternative accommodation in Ealing
Ealing Budget Hotels
All Ealing accommodation
Universities, Colleges and Language Schools near to Kenton House Hotel


Speranza join us for their debut lunchtime recital at the New Room.
Natalya Brazhnikova is a piano accompanist and teacher of chamber music in Gnesin Academy of Music in Moscow.
Peter Gilks is a rector in Andover. Before ordination he trained as a musician at Nottingham University, specialising in organ and piano. In the intervening years he has gained quite a lot of keyboard experience mainly as an accompanist, performing with choral societies and individuals in a variety of venues from pubs to cathedrals.
Julian started playing the piano at the age of 6 and the clarinet at the age of 10. He served in both the Somerset and the National Youth Orchestras as clarinettist. Julian studied music at Clare College, Cambridge, where he developed his gift of composition. Julian is rector at Nursling and Rownhams Churches. He is an avid cyclist and Francophile and has recently returned from a strenuous tour of the Massif Central.
Cathy graduated from the Royal Northern College of Music in her native Manchester. She was a member of the Bournemouth Sinfonietta, a 1st violin in the Royal Liverpool Philharmonic Orchestra, a member of the Welsh National Opera Orchestra and then a member of the BBC Radio Orchestra and the BBC Concert Orchestra. She has also freelanced extensively in and around London. In her spare time, Cathy enjoys playing chamber music, is a leader in her local church and going for walks in the Meon Valley. She has also recently discovered the delights of cruising!


text:
Kings Hit 19 3-Pointers In 141-130 Win Against Minnesota
Filed Under:Minnesota Timberwolves, Sacramento Kings
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Sacramento coach Dave Joerger wants his team to use its speed to run right past opponents.
When the Kings are clicking, it's hard to slow them down.
Nemanja Bjelica made four of Sacramento's franchise-record 19 3-pointers and finished with 25 points, helping the Kings beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 141-130 on Wednesday night.
Sacramento shot a season-best 58.1 percent (50 for 86) from the field in its fifth win in six games. It also had 33 fast-break points.
"I think it was probably a pretty exciting game to watch if you're a fan — we enjoyed it as well," Joerger said. "Ball was moving. We're better when we attack."
Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic each scored 20 points for Sacramento, and rookie Marvin Bagley III had 17 points and 10 rebounds.
Andrew Wiggins scored 25 points for Minnesota, and reserve Derrick Rose finished with 20. Karl-Anthony Towns had 19 points and 11 rebounds.
The Timberwolves remained winless in 10 road games against Western Conference opponents. They have just two road wins this season, tied for second-worst in the NBA.
"We score 130 points — 80 in the second half — shoot over 50 percent and lose. The disappointment is in our defense," Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau said. "You can't jog back against them. We did that and they got easy baskets."
The athletic Kings had seven players score in double figures. Hield made five 3s, part of a 19-for-38 performance from behind the arc for Sacramento.
The Kings led 63-50 at halftime, but the Timberwolves opened the third quarter with 11 straight points and 21 of 26 overall. Sacramento then responded with 11 straight points, including consecutive 3-pointers by Iman Shumpert, and never trailed again.
The Kings opened the fourth quarter with a 16-7 run, including three 3-pointers by Yogi Ferrell, to open a 13-point lead.
"They ran the floor fast, they never stopped. We just had to make it hard for them and try to take things away from them, but we didn't really do that," Wiggins said. "They made a lot of shots. We could have done better at taking it away from them and forcing them off the line. So it's back to the drawing board."
Timberwolves: Jeff Teague had a team-high 13 assists, but hit just three of his 11 shots. … The Timberwolves dropped to 0-3 on their four-game trip. They lost 116-108 at Golden State on Monday night. … The Timberwolves' 57 wins against the Kings remain their most against any NBA rival. … Minnesota had won nine of its previous 14 games since the Nov. 12 trade that sent Jimmy Butler to Philadelphia.
Kings: It was Bagley's fourth double-double of the season. … Ferrell had 17 points off the bench. … The Kings also defeated the Timberwolves in Sacramento 121-110 on Nov. 9. The teams meet for the final time this season in Minnesota on Feb. 25.
BIG THIRD
The Timberwolves' 42 points in the third quarter were their most in that period this season. Rose and Robert Covington each had nine points in the quarter.
The Kings (15-12) topped 140 points twice in their first 27 games, scoring 146 points at Atlanta on Nov. 1. Only two other teams in franchise history accomplished that feat in 27 games — the 1982-83 Kansas City Royals and the 1960-61 Cincinnati Royals.
Timberwolves: Visit the Phoenix Suns on Saturday.
Kings: Wrap up a two-game homestand by hosting the Golden State Warriors on Friday.


Our aim is to achieve flood risk reduction by contributions from developments.
Open channels and storage ponds should be located away from araeas of family housing.
Potential flooding an important infrastructure issue.
Unacceptable that there should be weak points in Ponteland's flood defences against 1in100 year storm.
Some opposition to the establishment of a Community Agreement which makes arrangements for a local flood action group to take initial steps following a flood warning being issued.
Information gathering with stakeholders and statutory agencies.
Identifying residents concerns and issues of local importance regarding the weaknesses in the flood defences.
Lack of capital provision in the last 5 years.
The possibility of water storage areas along watercourses to reduce flood risk especially as climate change increases risk in the future.
Anecdotal information about drainage, potential flooding and water supply.
Areas/issues the EA have concerns about.
Areas/issues about which the EA have received most expressions of concern.
Map of watercourses and drains (ideally with an indication of the persons/authorities who have responsibility for maintenance).
Contacts at Northumbrian Water Limited and Northumberland County Council.
Areas/issues NWL have concerns about.
Areas/issues about which NWL have received most expressions of concern.
Plans of surface water sewers and drains for which NWL has responsibility.
Plans of foul water sewers for which NWL has responsibility.
Details of pumping stations including location and catchment served.
Details of discharge points of surface water sewers and drains.
Details of means of treatment and discharge of foul water.
Description of the water supply network.
Contacts at the EA and Northumberland County Council.
Areas/issues NCC have concerns about.
Areas/issues about which NCC have received most expressions of concern.
Plans of highway drains and points of discharge.
Plans of other drains and watercourses for which NCC have responsibility and their points of discharge.
Areas/issues PTC have concerns about.
Areas/issues about which PTC have received most expressions of concern.
Contacts on drainage, potential flooding and water supply at the EA, NWL and NCC.
Contacts on drainage at the EA, NWL and NCC.
Request the Ponteland Neighbourhood Plan Group to place on the web site an invitation for comment from the public to identify specific concerns about surface water drainage, foul sewerage, potential flooding and water supply.
Ask former Ponteland Town Council member Alan Mee for details of drainage/flooding problems/water supply issues of which he is aware.
The Neighbourhood Plan Group's survey (2013) has indicated that "Drainage and Potential Flooding" is an infrastructure issue of high importance.
Flooding occurred in Ponteland in 2000 and 2008.
Assess impacts on drainage, potential flooding and water supply by policies proposed by other subgroups.
Identify matters that could be influenced by new planning policies.
Identify matters that cannot, or are unlikely, to be influenced by new planning policies.


Do you need some funny quotes about turning 21 to write a note in a card? Maybe you need to write a speech or a toast for a 21st birthday party? Could you be planning a birthday celebration and need a funny quote for the invitation? You've come to the right place.
Here are 21 great quotes and funny lines for celebrating the occasion of someone's 21st birthday.
If you'd like to wish someone a happy 21st birthday, but would prefer a take that's a bit more thoughtful and perhaps a bit less comical, check out some more quotes about turning 21. We've got some great 21st birthday sayings to consider too.
"Funny Quotes About Turning 21." YourDictionary, n.d. Web. 20 April 2019. <https://quotes.yourdictionary.com/articles/funny-quotes-about-turning-21.html>.


text:
In Many Minneapolis Schools, the Therapist is Just Right Down the Hall
January 23, 2020 /in Academic Struggles, Issues de Jour, Mental Health, Other Resources /by Marketing
When Cathy Moen's son, Elijah, was in first grade, he was diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. She took him to the pediatrician, who put him on medication and suggested therapy.
The medication part was easy. But getting him therapy proved more difficult — not because Moen couldn't find a therapist or didn't have insurance, but because of logistics.
The appointments were always during the day, and between her work schedule and the traffic, it was nearly impossible for them to make it.
But she soon learned Elijah was able to see a therapist in his Bloomington school. More than 15 years ago, Minneapolis Public Schools helped pioneer a national model of bringing community mental health care directly to its students. Today, most of the public schools in Minneapolis — more than 50 of them — have a therapist on site, and many other districts, like Elijah's, have followed suit.
These days, Elijah's therapist simply walks down the hall and pulls him from class.
"This is like a godsend," said Moen.
The family's health insurance pays for the care the same way it would if the student were being seen in the clinic. The school program was designed so that no student in need will be turned away for lack of insurance.
The Minneapolis program has also provided a road map for schools across the country as more administrators realize that mental health is as important to students' future success as academics. Studies have shown that students are more likely to show up for appointments when the therapists are on-site.
More and more states are making mental health care in schools a priority. At least two states have recently passed laws that require schools to teach mental health. And more are considering it.
But the benefit of having a therapist on-site goes beyond just getting students to see a therapist. In Minneapolis, it's also helped make mental health a school-wide priority — and helped get counselors, teachers and others more involved, said Mark Sander, who helped start the district program.
Mark Sander is the director of school mental health at Hennepin County and Minneapolis Public Schools.
Christine T. Nguyen | MPR News
"Those teachers start learning more and more [about mental health]," said Sander, who directs school mental health for the district and the county.
He said as they learn more about mental health, teachers are feeling like, "'OK, I get it. And now, you know, I've got this other student who's not diagnosed with anxiety but has some of those anxiety features. And now I know how to better support them."
At South High School in Minneapolis, the therapists sit in the school clinic, the same one where students go if they feel sick during the day or to get a physical so they can play sports.
The issues the students bring to the therapist run the gamut from stress about grades and colleges to anxiety related to a bad situation at home.
Farah Hussein is a therapist at South. She said it's hard being a teenager, and she tries to help.
"There's a lot of conversations about, 'Who am I? Where do I fit in the world? Where do I belong?' and just a lot of distress in exploring that," she said.
All of this has important implications for the students' well-being beyond just their mental health.
Collaborative mental health meetings at South include the school's social workers, counselors, nurses, psychologists, school-based clinic therapists and occasionally administrators.
Sharon Hoover, who co-directs the National Center for School Mental Health at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, said more schools are collecting data on outcomes of in-school mental health programs, and the results are clear.
"They are more likely to have good attendance and to graduate and to get improved grades. We even have documentation of having better standardized test scores when you put universal systems in place like classroom-wide social emotional learning," she said, all of which makes for happier, better adjusted students.
Cathy Moen, the mother whose son, Elijah, is in therapy in school, said she doesn't know if it's the medicine, or the therapy, or just that he's growing up, but she — and his teachers — are already seeing a difference.
https://care-clinics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/photo-1510531704581-5b2870972060.jpg 500 752 Marketing http://care-clinics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/CAREcounseling_logo.png Marketing2020-01-23 11:25:242020-08-21 12:03:29In Many Minneapolis Schools, the Therapist is Just Right Down the Hall
Ways to Successfully Balance a Full Caseload as a Therapist
January 7, 2020 /in Clinician Resources, Other Resources /by Marketing
By: Bridget Eickhoff, MA, Alison Dolan, Psy.D., LP, and Andrea Hutchinson, Psy.D., LP
Being a therapist can be a fulfilling and rewarding career. However, it can be hard to remember that therapists are humans who also experience anxiety, stress, and burnout. We took a survey of 30 clinicians at CARE Counseling asking what makes them feel successful and balanced at work. Here are the main points our amazing clinicians found that help them find balance when working with a full caseload.
Create Boundaries and Stick to Them
Let your clients know your boundaries for cancellations and follow through with the boundaries you've set or are set by your agency. Therapy should be a flexible time for the client to address topics that are important to them; however, aspects of structure are important in therapy to keep both your clients and yourself accountable.
Start and end sessions on time so that you have time to complete documentation, grab something to eat or drink, use the restroom, consult with a colleague, and/or take a moment to regroup.
Manage your Schedule Proactively
Make your life easier by scheduling clients as recurring appointments and practice confirming the next appointment at the end of the session.
You probably enjoy seeing clients and it can be heartbreaking to refer them out. However, back to that accountability point, close your clients who are not following the attendance policy (or use supervision and consultation if you need guidance) and give them referrals to help with barriers (e.g., closer to home, different hours, attending to a different piece of their difficulties, etc).
Proactively reach out and ask for more clients if you start to notice your caseload looking low or you have inconsistent clients.
Keep in mind, being proactive will help keep the number of intakes in the same week lower and documentation will likely feel more manageable.
Take advantage of cancellations and catch up on documentation or check-in with a co-worker. If you are finding yourself racing towards burnout remember:
You can use PTO and take a day or more to feel grounded again
Ask if you can have a temporary block off time in your schedule to help you gain some extra time to feel like things are more manageable again
Talk to management to see if there are ways to contribute to the team without as many client appointments.
Try to NOT Take this Very Personal Job, Personally (easier said than done)
For both you and your clients, use your intuition for goodness of fit. As you know, a healthy therapeutic alliance is a key factor for the overall success of therapy. At times, especially as a new clinician, it can be difficult to decipher between your intuition and anxiety. Clinicians should utilize supervision and consultation to explore types of clients who are and are not a good fit. Supervision and consultation are also helpful when you feel stuck.
Sometimes, it can feel pretty personal when a client cancels often or ghosts us. Keep in mind, clients will cancel appointments for a multitude of reasons ranging from weather, illness, moving, and symptoms and this happens to the best of us.
Consult with your peers and use supervision to feel balanced and confident with your caseload.
While you are likely a compassionate person, remember you too may have times when you need to check-in on your own mental health. Remember everyone can benefit from therapy!
https://care-clinics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Team-Photo.jpg 740 828 Marketing http://care-clinics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/CAREcounseling_logo.png Marketing2020-01-07 08:42:052020-08-21 12:05:30Ways to Successfully Balance a Full Caseload as a Therapist
How to De-Stress During the Holidays
January 7, 2020 /in Anxiety, Mental Health, Other Resources /by Marketing
https://care-clinics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/pexels-photo-720362.jpeg 1069 1600 Marketing http://care-clinics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/CAREcounseling_logo.png Marketing2020-01-07 07:55:232020-08-21 12:09:32How to De-Stress During the Holidays
Academic Struggles
Acting Out & Temper Tantrums
Ambiguous Loss / Sense of Self
By Therapeutic Issue
CARE Counseling
Career & Finances
Clinician Resources
Depression + Anxiety
Depression | Anxiety
Disordered Eating
Domestic Violence/Abuse
Emotional Trauma
Grief | Loss
Health + Sleep
Issues de Jour
Long Term Illness
Physical Trauma
Play Therpay
Post-Partum & Pre-Partum Depression
Race, Ethnicity & Cultural Identity
Relationships & Self-Care
Relationships | Self-CARE
Secondary Trauma
Sexual Addictions / Pornography
Sexual Function / Dysfunction
Sexual Trauma
Substance Use & Addiction
Substance Use | Addiction
Traumatic Loss / Suicide
Video Intervention
Weekly Session Plans
Witnessing Traumatic Experiences / PTSD
Youth + T1D


text:
require_relative '../ext/getdns/getdns'
require_relative '../lib/getdns/edns_extended_rcode_module'

class Getdns_edns_extended_rcode
  def test_getdns_edns_extended_rcode_status(domain_name)
    x = Edns_extended_rcode_module.edns_extended_rcode(domain_name)
    return x['status']
  end

  def test_getdns_edns_extended_rcode_canonical_name(domain_name)
    x = Edns_extended_rcode_module.edns_extended_rcode(domain_name)
    return x['canonical_name']
  end
end

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
void test_reply_false_if_term_lt_current_term() {

}

void test_log_out_of_sync() {

}

void test_log_conflict() {

}

void test_log_entries_appended() {

}

void test_reset_commit_index() {

}

int main() {
  test_reply_false_if_term_lt_current_term();
  test_log_out_of_sync();
  test_log_conflict();
  test_log_entries_appended();
  test_reset_commit_index();
}


It's nearly impossible to turn on the television without hearing about yet another domestic violence case, usually involving a story about a man or a woman physically abusing his or her spouse/partner. But, the real truth is that "domestic abuse" is a term that covers a number of different violent acts towards a person that the alleged perpetrator has a familial relationship with, whether it is a parent, spouse, partner, uncle, etc. What many people are not aware of is that these acts of "domestic violence" don't have to involve a physical injury. Assault, battery and false imprisonment are all considered domestic violence, as are behaviors like stalking and harassment in which the victim hasn't even been physically touched. There is a lot of gray surrounding domestic violence charges, and as a result, it can be fought using these gray areas to your benefit. If you or someone in your family is facing a domestic violence charge, you need a criminal defense attorney with the experience, care, and persuasive tactics that will get you a favorable result. Contact Louisiana Domestic Abuse Defense Lawyer Mark D. Frederick to handle your case with the skill you deserve.
A domestic violence conviction can mean a lot of hard things: counseling, fines, restitution to the victim, community service, and even jail time. However, the consequences for a domestic violence conviction do not stop with these initial punishments; once you've been stamped as a "domestic abuser", your life is forever altered. Everything may be at risk: the custody of your children, your job, your reputation in your community: everything in your life could be ruined by the bad feelings attached to the label. This makes it crucial that you do everything in your power to make sure that you have the best in criminal defense in Shreveport, Louisiana.
Northwestern Louisiana Domestic Violence Defense Attorney Mark D. Frederick will work tirelessly to protect your rights, and to make sure that you receive the justice you deserve. He does all he can to keep you from losing all that is important in your life: your employment, your family, and your freedom. Call Mark D. Frederick at his Shreveport office at 866-385-4007 today to discuss your case.


18 * Forward declarations of all mrpt::math classes related to vectors, arrays and matrices.
82 /** ContainerType<T>::element_t exposes the value of any STL or Eigen container.
111 // Implemented in "lightweight_geom_data.cpp"
133 * The purpose of this class is to model traits for containers, so that they can be used as return values for the function CMatrixTemplate::getVicinity.
136 * - static void initialize(container<T>,size_t N): must reserve space to allow at least the insertion of N*N elements, in a square fashion when appliable.
138 * must insert it in the (r,c) coordinates.
139 * For linear containers, the vicinity functions are guaranteed to insert elements in order, i.e., starting from the top and reading from left to right.
148 * - MatrixType: the matrix or container base type, from which the vicinity is required.
149 * - T: the base type of the matrix or container.
150 * - ReturnType: the returning container type. The class VicinityTraits<ReturnType> must be completely defined.
151 * - D: the dimension of the vicinity. Current implementations are 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13, 20, 21, 24 and 25, although it's easy to implement new variants.
ContainerType<T>::element_t exposes the value of any STL or Eigen container.


text:
How bitcoin could overcome its wild reputation
Published Thu, Sep 21 2017 7:45 AM EDT Updated Thu, Sep 21 2017 11:37 AM EDT
Luke Graham@LukeWGraham
A lack of liquidity may be to blame for bitcoin's excessive volatility nature, an expert tells CNBC.
Cedric Jeanson, CEO of BitSpread, suggests adding market makers to bitcoin exchanges as a solution.
Banks still playing catch-up with bitcoin, expert says
Street Signs Europe
A major problem for bitcoin is its extreme volatility, which is a cause of concern for many investors. A lack of liquidity may be to blame for the cryptocurrency's volatile nature, an expert tells CNBC.
"The high volatility I think is due to the low liquidity we have on exchanges today," Cedric Jeanson, CEO of BitSpread, told CNBC's Street Signs on Thursday.
Bitcoin has attracted a lot of criticism in recent weeks from big names including JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio. A common criticism is that bitcoin is too volatile to be an effective store of wealth, unlike gold.
The digital currency is currently trading at $3,883.76 per bitcoin. Year to date its value has risen by 289 percent, according to data on CoinDesk, but bitcoin also fell from a record high of around $4,991 at the start of September to as low as $2,989 by the middle of the month. That's a loss of 40 percent over less than two weeks.
Jeanson suggests that having more market makers, such as his company, can help to improve this liquidity problem.
"The important thing is to add market makers on these exchanges and have the appropriate rules, (such as) anti-money laundering and Know Your Customer, around those exchanges," he said.
Chris Ratcliffe | Getty Images
Bitcoin's liquidity problem has repelled investors from the market for some time. Data from Morningstar published in May revealed only four out of 10,000 mutual funds in the U.S. held bitcoins in their portfolio. This aversion to bitcoin was attributed to the lack of liquidity.
"From a mutual fund perspective, liquidity is paramount," Todd Rosenbluth, director of ETF and mutual fund research at CRFA, told Reuters.
Rosenbluth suggested that more funds would invest in bitcoin if there was an exchange-traded fund (ETF) which held the digital currency. Shares in the ETF could then be easily bought and sold or used as hedge allowing investors to speculate on bitcoin's price movement without needing to directly own the digital currency.
For instance, many investors trade shares in the $34.32 billion SPDR Gold Trust ETF in order to gain exposure to gold.
Make way for market makers
BitSpread is a cryptocurrency wealth manager. One of its investment strategies, called Blockchain Wealth Active Growth, has grown 1,218 percent since its inception in June 2014, according to the company's website.
Jeanson says its funds are adding liquidity to some exchanges around the world. These exchanges are selected based on due diligence and whether they have the right rules.
"We are quoting at the moment something like half a billion dollars of bitcoin or digital currency every month. We became, I think, the biggest market maker on those selected exchanges," he said.
One other factor that may help to reduce volatility is greater regulation. Several countries, including Japan and China, are making moves to regulate crypto currencies. Market watches see these regulations as helping the market to mature and become more mainstream. Jeanson called this "great news" for digital currency.
WATCH: Bitcoin depends on 'everything going right': Commonwealth Financial Network's Brad McMillan
Bitcoin depends on 'everything going right': Commonwealth Financial Network's Brad McMillan
Bitcoin/USD Bitstamp