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Holocene hydroclimatic variability in the tropical Pacific explained by changing ENSO diversity
ENSO diversity shows robust decadal variations that must be captured for accurate future projections
Bastien Dieppois, Antonietta Capotondi, … Jonathan Eden
Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming
Christopher W. Callahan, Chen Chen, … Elisabeth J. Moyer
Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate
Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, … Wenxiu Zhong
More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate
Na-Yeon Shin, Jong-Seong Kug, … Geon-Il Kim
Single- and multi-year ENSO events controlled by pantropical climate interactions
Ji-Won Kim & Jin-Yi Yu
The West Pacific Gradient tracks ENSO and zonal Pacific sea surface temperature gradient during the last Millennium
J. Zinke, S. A. Browning, … I. D. Goodwin
Multi-decadal to centennial hydro-climate variability and linkage to solar forcing in the Western Mediterranean during the last 1000 years
Yassine Ait Brahim, Jasper A. Wassenburg, … Hai Cheng
Pacific decadal variability over the last 2000 years and implications for climatic risk
Tessa R. Vance, Anthony S. Kiem, … Tas D. van Ommen
Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific
Jun Ying, Matthew Collins, … Karl Stein
Christina Karamperidou ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9304-96011 &
Pedro N. DiNezio2
Understanding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response to past climate forcings is hindered by conflicting paleoclimate evidence. Records from the eastern Pacific show an intensification of ENSO variability from early to late Holocene, while records from the central Pacific show highly variable ENSO throughout the Holocene without an obvious relation to insolation forcing, which is the main climate driver during this interval. Here, we show via climate model simulations that conflicting Holocene records can be reconciled by considering changes in the relative frequency of the three preferred spatial patterns in which El Niño events occur (Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, and Coastal) and in the strength of their hydroclimatic impacts. The relationship between ENSO diversity and variance is not only crucial for interpreting paleo-ENSO records and understanding ENSO response to external forcings but can also be used across climate model simulations to help evaluate the realism of ENSO projections in a changing climate.
A substantial part of our understanding of externally-forced changes in the ENSO phenomenon has been shaped by rainfall-sensitive paleoclimate proxy records spanning the Holocene obtained from sites in the eastern equatorial Pacific, such as Peruvian mollusk records1 and lake sediment records from the tropical Andes (Laguna Pallcacocha2,3) and the Galapagos islands4. These records show much weaker hydroclimatic variability in the eastern tropical Pacific and coastal S. America in the early and middle Holocene and a significant strengthening towards the late Holocene, leading to the conclusion that ENSO is highly sensitive to changes of tropical Pacific climate driven by orbital variations. However, this view has been challenged by coral archives from the central Pacific whose isotopic composition, a quantity highly correlated with large-scale sea-surface temperature and salinity variability driven by ENSO events, remains highly variable throughout the Holocene without showing a discernible response to orbital forcing, but rather a step decrease of 30–70% compared to late twentieth century values5,6,7.
The seemingly contradictory changes seen in the eastern and central Pacific paleoclimatic records could be explained by changes in the frequency of ENSO "flavors", also referred to as ENSO diversity, i.e. the different spatial patterns of sea-surface temperature anomalies during El Niño events8, and changes in their hydroclimatic impacts across the Pacific. Each flavor is associated with distinct sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation anomalies across the Pacific, sometimes of opposite sign (Fig. 1). Eastern Pacific (EP) events are accompanied by strong warm SST anomalies and an increase in precipitation in the eastern Pacific, while during Central Pacific (CP) events the SST anomalies there are weak and precipitation can be locally either increased or decreased (Fig. 1a, b). In the central Pacific, both EP and CP events induce SST and precipitation response of varying magnitude. During Coastal (COA) El Niño events, which peak in boreal spring (MAM), strong SST warming and increased precipitation are generally confined off of the coast of S. America, while basin-scale conditions remain in the neutral or even La Niña stage leading to cooler and drier conditions in the central Pacific and increased precipitation in the western Pacific (Fig. 1c). These large-scale patterns may change decadally or with changing background conditions9,10,11, and along with a change in the frequency and amplitude of the three flavors can ultimately be reflected in paleoclimate proxy records from across the Pacific. For example, a decrease in the frequency of Eastern Pacific (EP) and an increase in that of Central Pacific (CP) events, as has been shown in model simulations of the mid-Holocene12, can lead to compounded drier conditions in the eastern Pacific. Also, significant changes in the frequency of COA events can lead to substantial changes in rainfall variability in the far eastern Pacific due to their enhanced impact that is modulated by regional circulations and topography13.
Fig. 1: Observed hydroclimate impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) flavors.
Composite sea-surface temperature (SST; shading) and precipitation (PRCP; contours) anomalies during the three peak months of a Eastern Pacific (EP), b Central Pacific (CP) and c Coastal (COA) El Niño events. The peak three months for EP and CP events are December-January-February (DJF), while for COA events they are March–April–May (MAM). Solid lines indicate positive precipitation anomalies, while dashed contours indicate a drying signal. Colored circles indicate characteristic locations of proxy records, with deeper colors indicating stronger precipitation response to each ENSO flavor (brown for drier, blue for wetter). The proxy locations shown are: The Great Barrier Reef [146.5 °E, 18.6 °S], Vanuatu [167.2 °E, 15.7 °S], Kiritimati [202.6 °E, 1.9 °N], Fanning [200.6 °E, 3.8 °N], Galapagos [270.3 °E,1.2 °S] and the Laguna Pallcacocha region in Ecuador [280.8 °E, 2.8 °S].
Here, we assess the robustness of the "changing flavor" hypothesis12 for explaining tropical Pacific hydroclimatic changes during the Holocene by using climate simulations of key intervals performed with a global earth system model that simulates the features of all three ENSO flavors with significant realism14 (c.f Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. 1). Five simulations run under external forcings for 0, 3, 6, 9 and 12 thousand years before present (ka BP) represent four intervals throughout the Holocene with different climatic conditions driven mainly by the effect of orbital precession on seasonal insolation, with the exception of the 12 ka BP interval which includes ice sheet changes and lower greenhouse gases. These intervals allow us to resolve long-term trends in ENSO response driven by precessional forcing, while the simulations are sufficiently long (400–600 years each) to be able to discern forced changes in ENSO relative to the large unforced multi-decadal and centennial variability of the phenomenon15.
In our simulations, the frequency of the three ENSO flavors shows consistent changes in response to the orbital forcing. We find a gradual increase in the frequency of EP events and a decrease in CP and COA events in the late Holocene compared to the early Holocene (Fig. 2). Across the Holocene experiments, the number of EP events is anti-correlated with the number of CP events with r = −0.68. These opposite changes (increase in EP and decrease in CP event frequency) are accompanied by an increase in the EP/CP ENSO diversity coefficient ∣α∣ (Fig. 2e and Supplementary Fig. 2) in the late Holocene. The decreased frequency of EP events in the early and middle Holocene is first due to a gradual deepening of the thermocline (Supplementary Fig. 3q–t) and decrease in eastern Pacific stratification (Supplementary Fig. 3l–o) during the development season of ENSO (JJASO), which leads to a weakening of the thermocline and upwelling feedbacks in the eastern Pacific (Supplementary Fig. 4a), and in turn an inhibition of the growth of EP events. In addition, the decrease in the east-west tropical Pacific zonal surface temperature gradient (apparent in Supplementary Fig. 3b–e) leads to a decrease in the zonal advection due to anomalous currents (QZA,curr; Supplementary Fig. 4a), which further contributes to weaker and less frequent EP events. On the contrary, the zonal advection due to anomalous currents increases in the NINO4 region towards the early Holocene, with the exception of the 12 ka simulation (Supplementary Fig. 4b). This allows CP event frequency to increase towards the early Holocene, even though it should be noted that this change comes primarily as a step change between present-day and 3ka rather than large gradual decreases like in EP events (Fig. 2b). These results support previous conclusions on the sensitivity of EP and CP ENSO to mid-Holocene orbital forcing12,16,17 and the significance of the thermocline/upwelling and zonal advective feedback for the EP and CP events, respectively18, although the relative importance of the different feedback terms in the evolution of ENSO flavors may depend on the model used. The higher frequency in simulated COA events in the early Holocene coincides with cooling of climatological SSTs during their peak season (March to June; see Supplementary Fig. 3b–e); such La-Niña-like mean state changes were found to be conducive to coastal warming by reducing atmospheric stability and destabilizing the ITCZ via atmospheric teleconnections19.
Fig. 2: Simulated changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) flavors in the Holocene (top), and simulated and proxy changes in central Pacific (middle) and far eastern Pacific (bottom) hydroclimate.
The top panel shows the number of a Eastern Pacific (EP), b Central Pacific (CP), and c Coastal (COA) events per century in the Holocene time-slice experiments with the Community Earth System Model v1 (CESM1). The middle panel shows d the number of "central Pacific influence" (EP + CP) events per century, e the coefficient α, which is a metric of ENSO EP/CP diversity, the simulated changes in sea surface temperature (SST) (f) and precipitation (g) variability in the NINO3.4 region, and h the change in 1.5–10 yr standard deviation of coral δ18O from the central Pacific (Kiritimati-green6;Fanning-blue5;Palmyra-orange26) relative to the 1977–2007 reference period. In subfigure h, which is adapted from Karamperidou et al.7, stars indicate modern records (twentieth century), and circles show fossil coral records with open circles indicating records < 30 yr and error bars showing the range of 30 yr variability in coral records > 30 yrs. The bottom panel shows i the number of simulated "eastern Pacific influence" (EP + COA) events, j their impact in the far eastern Pacific as indicated by the regression coefficient between the December–January–February (DJF) EP (pink) and CP (black) index and March–April–May (MAM) COA index (red) and precipitation anomalies in the NINO1+2 region, k the standard deviation of total precipitation in the NINO1+2 region, and l the number of run-off events recorded in L. Pallcacocha3 and the percentage of sand in Lake El Junco (Gapalagos)4. Boxplots indicate the interquartile range (IQR) of values calculated from each simulation over one hundred random 100-yr samples. Black lines show the median, while whiskers show 1.5 times the IQR. The asterisks next to each boxplot indicate the significance in the change in means between the time-slice and the reference 0ka simulation based on a Wilcoxon test, as follows: *p ≤ 0.05, **p ≤ 0.01, ***p ≤ 0.001, ****p ≤ 0.0001. Gray boxplots show the number of events across 15 models participating in the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 3 & 4 for their pre-industrial control and mid-Holocene simulations.
The relative frequency of EP and CP events changes in our simulations in a way consistent with the paleoclimatic evidence from the central Pacific. As shown in Fig. 1, EP and CP events impact precipitation and SST in the central Pacific (e.g., Kiritimati and Fanning), with EP events exerting a stronger influence in SST compared to CP events both in observations and in the model (cf. Fig 1 and Supplementary Fig. 1). There is a step increase in the sum of these "central Pacific influence events" (EP + CP) between 0 ka and 3 ka, which continues in the mid-Holocene (Fig. 2d). However, the number of EP and CP events is highly variable during the Holocene, with their median frequency ranging from 22 to 27 events per century, as shown in Fig. 2d. Importantly, it is their relative frequency -or in other words the ENSO EP/CP diversity (Fig 2e)- rather than their sum that most strongly influences the precipitation response across the Holocene. The decrease in EP events (Fig. 2a) and increase in CP events (Fig. 2b) translates into a decrease in the coefficient α of ENSO diversity in the early Holocene (Fig. 2e) that is mostly significant in 9 ka and 12 ka. This decrease is consistent with the simulated decreases in SST and precipitation variability towards the early Holocene (9 ka, 12 ka) in the central Pacific seen in Fig. 2f, g because the relative impact of EP events in the region is stronger compared to that of CP events (Fig. 1a, b). The impact of the relative frequency of the two dominant ENSO flavors is also seen in the positive correlation between the metric of ENSO EP/CP diversity (coefficient α) and the standard deviation of SST and precipitation anomalies in the central Pacific (Fig. 3a): Smaller α indicates fewer EP events compared to CP events, which is associated with less SST and precipitation variability in the NINO3.4 region. Thus, it is clear that changes in the ENSO EP/CP diversity throughout the Holocene can explain the variability in central Pacific SST and precipitation: the general stability in α between 3 ka and 6 ka in Figs. 2e and 3a agrees with the lack of significant changes in the simulated SST and precipitation variability (Fig. 2f, g) and with the central Pacific proxy records5,6, which show highly variable ENSO activity during the last 6000 years with the exception of the modern twentieth century records (Fig. 2h).
Fig. 3: The relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity and tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation variability in pre-industrial control and paleoclimate model experiments.
ENSO diversity is measured by the coefficient α of the quadratic fit in the December-January-February (DJF) PC1-PC2 plane; positive α indicates a concave down shape in the PC1–PC2 space, as in Supplementary Fig. 2. a Standard deviation of monthly hydroclimate variables in the central and eastern Pacific vs. ENSO diversity. Points correspond to 100-yr samples from each experiment with the Community Earth System Model v1 (CESM1), with their colors indicating the time slice and their shape indicating the variable plotted: diamonds and circles for the standard deviation of SST and precipitation anomalies in the central Pacific (NINO3.4 region), respectively, and squares for the standard deviation of total precipitation in the far eastern Pacific (NINO1+2 region). Shading indicates uncertainty in the regression lines. The adjusted R of a linear fit between α and each of the three variables is color-coded to match the regression lines and is reported next to each set of points (blue for the standard deviation of total NINO1+2 precipitation, black for the standard deviation of NINO3.4 precipitation anomalies, and dark green for the standard deviation of NINO3.4 SST anomalies). b DJF NINO3.4 standard deviation vs. ENSO diversity across past climate experiments with CESM1 and 40 CMIP5 & 62 CMIP6 models. Colored circles correspond to 100-yr samples from the CESM1 paleoclimate experiments, while open triangles show models participating in the Coupled Model Intecomparison Project (CMIP) 5 (blue, pointing up) and CMIP6 (green, pointing down). Shading indicates uncertainty in the regression lines (blue and green for CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, black for CESM1 paleoclimate experiments). The adjusted R of a linear fit in the three groups is reported at the upper left.
In the eastern Pacific, EP and COA events positively impact precipitation, while CP events are responsible for a weak wet and even drying signal in parts of coastal S. America (Fig. 1). The sum of the "eastern Pacific influence events" (EP + COA) decreases from a median number of 12 events per century in present-day climate to 8 events in early Holocene (Fig. 2i), amounting to an average early Holocene decrease of about 37.5%. In addition to the decrease in EP+COA event frequency, their impact is approximately 40% weaker in 12ka compared to 0ka (Fig. 2j), as expressed by the regression coefficients between precipitation anomalies in the far eastern Pacific and the NINO12res and E-index in boreal spring and winter, respectively. The decrease in eastern Pacific events and concurrent increase in CP event frequency going back to the early Holocene is reflected in the decrease of coefficient α (weaker ENSO EP/CP diversity), which is correlated with the standard deviation of total precipitation in the far eastern Pacific, as shown in Fig. 3a. Therefore, a decrease in ENSO EP/CP diversity and in the frequency of "eastern Pacific influence" events (EP+COA) along with a significant weakening of their influence lead to a compounded drying signal, which is consistent with the simulated lower precipitation variability over the NINO1+2 region (Fig. 2k) in the early Holocene (2.6–2.8 mm/day in 9 and 12 ka) compared to present-day (3.2 mm/day). This can help better explain the dramatic decrease in run-off events shown in the L. Pallcacocha and L. El Junco proxy records3,4 in the early Holocene (Fig. 2l). The timing of the simulated changes in rainfall variability whose biggest steps occur from 3ka to the mid-Holocene to 9 ka (Fig. 2k) is also in agreement with the decrease in the number of recorded run-off events in the lake sediments in the eastern Pacific in mid- to early Holocene (Fig. 2l).
We have thus showed that from the relative changes in the number of the EP, CP and COA events during the Holocene, it would be expected to see a highly variable hydroclimate in the central Pacific between mid- and late Holocene, but an intensification of precipitation variability in the eastern Pacific from the early to late Holocene. Disregarding ENSO diversity and using single indices, such as NINO3.4, to characterize ENSO activity and interpret paleoclimate proxy records can therefore be misleading. To further demonstrate this, we show in Fig. 4 how the frequency of EP, CP and COA events translates into changes in the NINO3.4 Index variance across all CESM1 Holocene experiments. Within the pre-industrial control simulation (0 ka), there exist multiple combinations of the number of "central Pacific influence events" (EP + CP) and "eastern Pacific influence events" (EP + COA) that can lead to either an increase or a decrease of NINO3.4 standard deviation, by as much as ±15% compared to the average NINO3.4 standard deviation of the simulation. For example, in a given century, a sum of 12 EP and COA events and a sum of 19 EP and CP events translates to 15% decrease of NINO3.4 standard deviation compared to 0ka. But the same decrease can be achieved by a sum of 7 EP and COA events and a sum of 22 EP and CP events, or a sum of 5 EP + COA and a sum of 32 EP + CP events. As became evident from the results presented in this study, even though the NINO3.4 standard deviation is the same across these three scenarios, the fact that it stems from vastly different combinations of EP, CP and COA events would lead to different hydroclimate manifestations in the same location, given the different impacts of these ENSO flavors.
Fig. 4: Simulated relative changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) flavors in the Holocene.
Number of "eastern Pacific influence" events (Eastern Pacific (EP) + Coastal (COA); ordinate) vs number of "central Pacific influence" events (Eastern Pacific (EP) + Central Pacific (CP); abscissa) in time-slice Holocene experiments with the Community Earth System Model v1 (CESM1). Each tile represents 100 yr samples to account for internal variability. Colored shading shows the percentage change in the standard deviation of NINO3.4 SST anomalies compared to the pre-industrial control simulation (0ka). Black-delineated tiles show 100-yr samples from the 0ka simulation. Blue dots indicate all 100-yr samples where NINO3.4 standard deviation decreases more than 30% compared to 0 ka. Note that the color shading corresponds to the 0ka values when 0ka tiles overlap with tiles from other Holocene experiments; the same combination of event frequency may lead to a >30% decrease in NINO3.4 standard deviation even though the color in the forefront may show a different value from the 0ka experiment (e.g. at the (26,7) tile).
Proxy records from the central tropical Pacific show decreases in ENSO standard deviation from 30 to about 70% compared to late twentieth century values5,6,7 (Fig. 2h). As shown by the blue dots in Fig. 4, reduction larger than 30% in NINO3.4 standard deviation can correspond to a wide range of frequencies of EP, CP and COA events: from cases with increased frequency of EP and COA events but strong reduction in the frequency of CP events, to cases where the exact opposite is true, i.e. CP events dominate. In addition, short coral records may be inadvertently subsampling any tile in Fig. 4, or in other words, any random 100-yr period during each Holocene time-slice. Thus, proxy-inferred changes in SST or precipitation variability need not necessarily reflect externally-forced changes in the frequency of ENSO events, and vice versa.
The complex manifestation of the relative frequency of ENSO flavors onto SST and precipitation variability across the Pacific raises the question, what is the relationship between ENSO variance -generally characterized by the variance of a single index such as NINO3.4- and ENSO diversity. Across the Holocene paleoclimate CESM1 experiments (Fig. 3b), the stronger the diversity (coefficient α), the stronger the DJF NINO3.4 standard deviation (DJF). Note that this is not necessarily expected, since strong NINO3.4 variance can be the result of strong activity in a single ENSO "flavor"20. Importantly, the linear ENSO diversity-variance relationship in the CESM1 experiments (r = 0.98) closely resembles the relationship across the pre-industrial control experiments with both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models (triangles in Fig. 3b; r = 0.73). The similarity in this relationship between CESM1 paleoclimate experiments and CMIP5 and 6 models suggests analogies between past climate changes and mean climate biases in models, which can be used to constrain model uncertainty in future climate projections. It should be noted that more than half of the models in both cohorts do not exhibit strong ENSO diversity/nonlinearity, as was also found in previous studies12,21 and seen in Fig. 3b. The ENSO diversity and variance relationship breaks down in these less skillful models where stronger NINO3.4 variance does not correlate with the presence of two ENSO flavors; this has consequent implications for faithful representation of global ENSO impacts as the latter are significantly different between flavors (Fig. 1; also see Taschetto et al.11 for a review).
In conclusion, interpretation of hydroclimatic changes in proxy records needs to take into account changes in the frequency of all ENSO flavors, their combinations and relative frequency, as well as changes in the strength of their impacts. In this study, we used a suite of time-slice earth system model simulations of multiple intervals since 12 ka BP to show that combined changes in the frequency of Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, and coastal El Niño events, as well as a change in the strength of the hydroclimate impact of these flavors, reconcile central Pacific proxies that show highly variable ENSO in the Holocene with eastern Pacific proxies indicating large decreases in ENSO-related hydroclimatic variability in the early Holocene. In addition, a seeming contrast between a central or western Pacific proxy record indicating enhanced La Niña conditions and an eastern Pacific proxy indicating enhanced El Niño conditions over the same past period can be reconciled as partially resulting from increased frequency of Coastal events instead of a change in basin-scale ENSO, due to the fact that Coastal El Niño events have supersized precipitation impacts in the far eastern Pacific13,22,23 during otherwise basin-scale neutral or La Niña conditions. Our focus on the impacts of changes in the frequency and impacts of all ENSO flavors can thus help frame and better interpret past or future response of ENSO to other external forcings, including greenhouse gas emissions and volcanic eruptions, and its global and tropical hydroclimatic impacts, as clearly shown by the strong correlation between ENSO diversity and SST and precipitation variability in both the central and eastern Pacific.
As a broader implication of our study, we showed that the relationship of ENSO variance and EP/CP ENSO diversity in the paleoclimate CESM1 experiments spans the range of this relationship across the CMIP5/6 pre-industrial control experiments. This means that it is possible that model biases in simulating annual mean and seasonal climate of the tropical Pacific that resemble the forced changes across paleoclimate simulations can be linked to model disagreement with respect to ENSO variance and diversity and their future projections. Such connections can increase the robustness of previous studies20,21 that have used metrics of model skill in simulating ENSO diversity to classify models with respect to their projections of future changes in the mean tropical Pacific climate and ENSO variability itself.
Observations and proxy records
To calculate observed ENSO flavors and their impacts we use the HadISSTv424 and GPCP25 datasets. The proxy records shown here are run-off events in sediment cores of L. Pallacocha3, percentage of sand in sediment cores of L. El Junco4, and isotope records (δ18O) from modern and fossil corals5,6,26.
Model simulations
To assess the response of ENSO flavors to orbital forcing over the past 12,000 years (12 ka), we use a suite of time-slice experiments in 3 ka intervals with version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)14. Each experiment is 400–600 years long and was run until the surface climate and oceanic processes controlling tropical climate, such as the depth of the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), have reached equilibrium. All simulations exhibit minimal drift in global mean surface temperature (less than 0.05 °C per century), tropical mean surface temperature (less than 0.04 °C per century), the depth of the equatorial thermocline in the Pacific (less than 0.3 m per century), and the strength of the AMOC (less than 0.25 Sv per century) during the periods used in the analyses. With the exception of the 12 ka BP interval which includes ice sheet changes and lower greenhouse gases, the primary forcing in the 0, 3, 6, and 9 ka BP intervals is changes in Earth's precession, and each simulation branched off its preceding one, starting from 0ka sequentially through the Holocene. The maximum TOA energetic imbalance does not exceed 0.45 Wm−2, which is much smaller than the imposed radiative forcing. CESM1 is one of the "better" models in terms of simulation of ENSO and its diversity27,28. The model is able to reasonably capture the frequency and patterns of EP, CP and COA events, and their impacts on precipitation (cf. Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. 1). The strength of EP and CP variability in the model's control simulation (0 ka) is approximately equal to the ensemble mean of the CMIP5 and 6 model cohorts29. Even though the model overestimates ENSO variance as measured by the DJF NINO3.4 standard deviation by 6–20% compared to 20th century sea-surface temperature reconstructions, it simulates 8-10 EP and 11–16 CP events per century, which represents a realistic CP/EP-event ratio of 1.6. Using the same method30 for identifying EP and CP events, the CP/EP ratio since 1950 is 1.88, while Freund et al.31 found a CP/EP ratio of 37/27 = 1.4 using paleoclimate proxy reconstructions over the period 1617–1920. The number of EP and CP events per century in the 0 ka and 6 ka CESM1 simulations is also comparable to that in 15 PMIP3/4 models (Fig. 2a, b), however, it should be noted that only 5 of the 15 models have a coefficient alpha (α; see definition in the following section) that indicates concavity in the PC1-PC2 space and that is significantly different from zero as in observations and CESM1. The heat budget analysis in the equatorial strip uses the methodology of DiNezio & Deser32 but with the mixed-layer depth being constant in time but variable in space (See Supplementary Information for a heat budget discussion).
ENSO diversity
An EP event is defined in the model simulations when the Oct–Apr E-index exceeds 1.5 standard deviations; a CP event is defined when the C-index exceeds one standard deviation (indices defined by Takahashi et al.30). To identify COA events we use the NINO12res index, which represents the residuals of the linear regression of the NINO1+2 index onto the NINO3.4 index, thereby removing the linear ENSO signal associated with basin-scale events33. A COA event is defined when (1) the NINO12res index exceeds one standard deviation for at least three consecutive months between March and June, and (2) the concurrent NINO3.4 index is less or equal to 1/3 of its standard deviation. These events peak in boreal spring, therefore coinciding with the season of peak climatological rainfall in equatorial S. America. To characterize EP/CP ENSO pattern diversity in model simulations, we use the coefficient a of a quadratic fit in the phase plane of the first and second principal components of DJF SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific (10 °S–10 °N), proposed by Karamperidou et al.20 and shown in Supplementary Fig. 2. Since coefficient α is calculated based on the DJF SST anomalies, it excludes COA events, which peak in boreal spring and summer and do not have large-scale global impacts. Here, positive a indicates a concave down shape in the PC1–PC2 space, as in Supplementary Fig. 1.
We use linear regression coefficients between monthly SST and precipitation anomalies and the E, C and NINO1+2res indices to show impact changes across climates. To illustrate the differing impacts of EP, CP and COA events, we highlight six proxy locations (Fig. 1), as follows. Western Pacific: The Great Barrier Reef [146.5 °E, 18.6 °S] and Vanuatu [167.2 °E, 15.7 °S]34,35; central Pacific: Kiritimati [202.6 °E, 1.9 °N] and Fanning [200.6 °E, 3.8 °N]5,6,36,37; eastern Pacific: Galapagos [270.3 °E, 1.2 °S] and the Laguna Pallcacocha region in Ecuador [280.8 °E, 2.8 °S]2,3,4,38,39,40.
To account for internal climate variability in each time-slice simulation, all metrics or indices are computed from one hundred random 100-yr long samples, and the results are given as boxplots or tiles in the figures. The boxplots show the interquantile range (IQR) from these 100 samples from each simulation, while whiskers indicate 1.5 times the IQR. To compare means between time-slices and the reference 0ka simulation, we apply a Wilcoxon test (non-parametric). The sampling size (i.e. 100 years) is chosen as a compromise between typical lengths of instrumental, coral and lower resolution proxy records, as well as to correspond to the reporting window for proxy-inferred event frequency (e.g., in Moy et al.3).
All published coral and lake sediment records are publicly available via the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information paleoclimatology archives at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology. Observational datasets (HadISSTv4 and GPCP) are available via the respective authoritative sites (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/ and https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/global-precipitation-climatology-project). All PMIP3/4 and CMIP5/6 data are publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation datanodes at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/. The model output and source data used in this study are available on Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7302480.
This article uses the languages R (https://www.R-project.org/) and NCL (https://www.ncl.ucar.edu/) to perform the reported analyses; codes can be accessed upon request to C.K. For the analysis, we used the computing resources provided by the University of Hawaii at Manoa and NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, sponsored by the National Science Foundation41.
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Karamperidou, C. et al. ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo-perspectives, and Outlook, In El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (eds McPhaden, M.J., Santoso, A. & Cai, W.). Ch. 21, 471–484 (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2020).
Capotondi, A., et al. ENSO Diversity, In El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (eds McPhaden, M.J., Santoso, A. & Cai, W.)., Ch. 4, 65–86 (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2020).
Yeh, S.-W. et al. ENSO atmospheric teleconnections and their response to greenhouse gas forcing. Rev. Geophys. 56, 185–206 (2018).
Dee, S., Okumura, Y., Stevenson, S. & Di Nezio, P. Enhanced North American ENSO teleconnections during the Little Ice Age revealed by paleoclimate data assimilation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2020GL087504 (2020).
Taschetto, A. S. et al. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections, In El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (eds McPhaden, M.J., Santoso, A. & Cai, W.), Ch. 14, 309–335 (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2020).
Karamperidou, C., Di Nezio, P. N., Timmermann, A., Jin, F.-F. & Cobb, K. M. The response of ENSO flavors to mid-Holocene climate: Implications for proxy interpretation. Paleoceanography 30, 527–547 (2015).
Kiefer, J. & Karamperidou, C. High-resolution modeling of ENSO-induced precipitation in the tropical Andes: Implications for proxy interpretation. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol. 34, 217–236 (2019).
Lawman, A. E. et al. Unraveling forced responses of extreme El Niño variability over the Holocene. Sci. Adv. 8, eabm4313 (2022).
Wittenberg, A. T. Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L12702 (2009).
Braconnot, P., Luan, Y., Brewer, S. & Zheng, W. Impact of Earth's orbit and freshwater fluxes on Holocene climate mean seasonal cycle and ENSO characteristics. Clim. Dyn. 38, 1081–1092 (2012).
An, S. & Choi, J. Mid-Holocene tropical Pacific climate state, annual cycle, and ENSO in PMIP2 and PMIP3. Clim. Dyn. 43, 957–970 (2014).
Kug, J.-S., Jin, F.-F. & An, S.-I. Two types of El Niño events: cold tongue El Niño and warm pool El Niño. J. Clim. 22, 1499–1515 (2009).
Takahashi, K. & Martínez, A. G. The very strong coastal El Niño in 1925 in the far-eastern Pacific. Clim Dyn 52, 7389–7415 (2019).
Karamperidou, C., Jin, F.-F. & Conroy, J. L. The importance of ENSO nonlinearities in tropical Pacific response to external forcing. Clim. Dyn. 49, 2695–2704 (2017).
Cai, W. et al. Increased variability of Eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming. Nature 564, 201–206 (2018).
Hagemans, K. et al. Patterns of alluvial deposition in Andean lake consistent with ENSO trigger. Quat. Sci. Rev. 259, 106900 (2021).
Sandweiss, D. H. et al. Archaeological climate proxies and the complexities of reconstructing Holocene El Niño in coastal Peru. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 117, 8271–8279 (2020).
Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Atkinson, C. P. & Killick, R. E. An ensemble data set of sea surface temperature change from 1850: The Met Office Hadley Centre HadSST.4.0.0.0 data set. J. Geophys. Res. Atmosph. 124, 7719–7763 (2019).
Adler, R. F. et al. The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeorol. 4, 1147–1167 (2003).
Cobb, K. M., Charles, C., Cheng, H. & Edwards, R. El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium. Nature 424, 271–276 (2003).
Fredriksen, H.-B., Berner, J., Subramanian, A. C. & Capotondi, A. How does El Niño-Southern Oscillation change under global warming–a first look at CMIP6. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2020GL090640 (2020).
Lopez, H., Lee, S.-K., Kim, D., Wittenberg, A. T. & Yeh, S.-W. Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century. Nat. Commun. 13, 1915 (2022).
Cai, W. et al. Changing El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 2, 628–644 (2021).
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Freund, M. B. et al. Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Niño events in recent decades relative to past centuries. Nat. Geosci. 12, 450–455 (2019).
DiNezio, P. N. & Deser, C. Nonlinear controls on the persistence of La Niña. J. Clim. 27, 7335–7355 (2014).
Hu, Z.-Z., Huang, B., Zhu, J., Kumar, A. & McPhaden, M. J. On the variety of coastal El Niño events. Clim. Dyn. 52, 7537–7552 (2019).
Corrège, T. et al. Evidence for stronger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in a mid-Holocene massive coral. Paleoceanography 14, 465–470 (2000).
Gagan, M. K., Haberle, S. G., Hendy, E. J. & Hantoro, W. Postglacial evolution of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Quat. Int. 118–119, 127–143 (2004).
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McGregor, H. et al. A weak El Niño/Southern Oscillation with delayed seasonal growth around 4300 years ago. Nat. Geosci. 6, 949–953 (2013).
Riedinger, M., Steinitz-Kannan, M., Last, W. & Brenner, M. A ~6100 14C yr record of El Niño activity from the Galapagos Islands. J. Paleolimnol. 27, 1–7 (2002).
Koutavas, A., deMenocal, P., Olive, G. & Lynch-Stieglitz, J. Mid- Holocene El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) attenuation revealed by individual foraminifera in eastern tropical Pacific sediments. Geology 34, 993–996 (2006).
Thompson, D. M. et al. Tropical Pacific climate variability over the last 6000 years as recorded in Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos. Paleoceanography 32, 903–922 (2017).
Computational and Information Systems Laboratory. Cheyenne: HPE/SGI ICE XA System. (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 2019).
C.K. is supported by NSF Grant AGS-1902970. PDN is supported by AGS-2103007 and OCE-2043447. This is SOEST contribution 11593.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2525 Correa Rd, HIG 350, Honolulu, HI, 96815, USA
Christina Karamperidou
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 311 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
Pedro N. DiNezio
C.K. designed the research questions, conducted the analyses and wrote the manuscript. P.D.N. performed the model experiments and heat budget analysis, and contributed in the developing of ideas and writing of the manuscript.
Correspondence to Christina Karamperidou.
Karamperidou, C., DiNezio, P.N. Holocene hydroclimatic variability in the tropical Pacific explained by changing ENSO diversity. Nat Commun 13, 7244 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34880-8


Slate's a breed if arctic wolf with a beautiful unchanging snow white fur. Slate's a bit bigger than most male wolves and his thick,fluffy fur and tail gives him an appearance of being much bigger than he really is. But don't let appearances deceive. beneath this thick fur lays a powerful wolf in his own right.
Slate's an odd ball when it comes to personalities being he's very unpredictable. Although Slate has a kind,caring side, this is well hide'in beneath a distant,unresponsive shell. This setback usually keeps Slate to himself and quiet. It seems the wolf is always in a bad mood and even when he's not, he's always alone off someplace.
As of late, Slate is rarely seen and when he's not wandering the forest,he's spotted near or inside his favorite bush. Due to recent events, Slate's mental stability has been deteriorating progressively to the point where emotional intense situations trigger his explosive and dangerous temper. This temper has recently been displayed when his anger has been triggered due to a disturbing memory or flash back.
Slate's turbulent past is unknown and unclear,even to him. Only a few details he can recall about his pass life as a living lab specimen. But one thing be sure,this wolf knows more about humans than he shows,having been raised by them practically. After nearly 5 years of wandering alone,living in an abandoned aircraft hanger at an airport and amongst humans who lived near said airport, ,Slate came across the wolf spirits pack. After a warm greeting and a shaky start, Slate was accepted as one of the pack and since then has resided with them. Still the lone wolf he is, one will mostly see him lounging around quietly,keeping to his self,sleep or not there at all.
Slate's also a runner,able to run long distances nonstop. What he lacks in speed,he makes up for in endurance and pure agility. This gift,coupled with his experience of being on his own, has landed him as a position as scout. The biggest stand out Slate has is his odd British/Australian like accent, followed closely by his pure white fur,iris less silver eyes,pink nose and his size.
* Slate would be trying his best to chomp at the man's arm, paws scrapping and struggling to pull himself closer. The tranq, a heavier dose it seemed, would be working over time now. The old wolf's visage would be blurring now, becoming clouded. Slate mind was slowly becoming muddled and his attempts at taking hold of the man's arm would slow. Soon, Slate would be no more than a big, sleeping wolf on top the guy.
Slate was a gifted story teller in the sense that even when you didn't want to be bothered for one reason or the next, he at least knew how to push the button to engage you or make you smile…at the very least. His interests were within the mechanical realm; with oil, gears, and petrol. Regardless, he was one of the few that didn't need to read a room before entering or opening his mouth. The sheer fact that he did either made for a better day and gave testament to his natural ability at understanding the cogs of humanity. I still remember one of the first memories of him speaking with me in private. It was over a plane of all things…flying through his area to Cuba. A once in a lifetime event and only the pilot and himself probably knew of the flight plan…to a T. I never asked if he got his shot…if that memory had been made at the last, but it is a memory with me. Wherever and however we believe he is…either at rest or in a great beyond one fact remains…that the memories he sought and helped forge are ours now, and in those fragments of life relived he too lives on and will literally never be forgotten.
"Finding grace through the thickets of a bitter tale.
A ghostly soul of a lively body now layed to rest once more.
A call of the spirits rise in his lifeless form.
Her grace accepting his kind offer in return for her gift of life.
A winter ever changing into Spring..
Another season passed but surely not forgotten.
In life there is new death.
A being of high spirits shifting through the howls of this life.
A soul now released to it's rightful place as the Wolves cry.
While one allows the arms of eternity to embrace them sweetly.
The snow falls slowly and lonely eeriness fills the air.
but the white earth softly glows.
Paws drag through the cold powder worn and tired.
Life becomes a struggle just barely holding on by a thread but continues to push on.
to be done in this lifetime? It is not long before the last step is taken and death once more claims another.
The mountains and the forests cry for the loss of a wolven heart.
Howls of anguish are carried to the sky as their hearts and spirits break.
Snowflakes continue to fall attempting to cover the memory of the golden eyes that once sang to the moon but now rest in peaceful eternity.
This life will never be forgotten.
What can you say about a man who comes to a wolf roleplaying channel and says "I'm gonna play a cat!" and somehow makes it seem like it was always meant to be? Slate was a good wolf, regardless of what form he took. Loyal, Honest, always out to get a laugh from you or brighten your day. Where he has gone there is no hunger, no pain, no suffering, no loneliness and no lawyers. I hope he gets the rest he so sorely needed.
Slate was such an awesome person. I remember him being there always ready to talk or RP in the middle of the night or day. He was one of the first Wolfies to greet me when I first RPd in wolf spirits. I will always remember him.
As the moon rises silently over the trees, the forest itself appears to listen with bated breath as a single mournful cry rises into the air. Soon this single cry is joined by others as the pack mourns the loss of a beloved one. As the forest falls silent again, seeming as if nature herself feels the packs pain, a shooting star streaks across the sky. Was it a celestial body or the spirit of the mourned, joining the ancestors to forever watch over those left on this mortal plane.
Slate was always the guy that brought the life into a room. he was never shy about wanting people to laugh, or just talk to him. I believe he was the best of humanity, and his life was too short for the amount of good he was. He was always good at making me fall over laughing.
One of my favorite Slate characters had to be the crazy squirrel, i think it had an English accent maybe. It had the television in the tree and would just torture wolves below with words and flying nuts. One of those characters he brought in to perk up the chatroom when it was a little slow. He always knew when to do that.
I've known Slate for over…10-15 years now. He was one of the first people I've met when i joined the rpg world and he always asked me to draw his characters then email them to him lol. We would talk for hours on some nights on the phone but usually we stuck to the internet to avoid costly phone then cellphone bills. Ahh evolution of communications…He also always asked me to take pictures of trains and buses of Canada. He loved to compare them…then asked me to try and draw what he though would be an amazing hybrid of his design….which i sucked at royally. When i learned of his death, i felt like i was struck by a bus myself. I had spoken to him the previous day, just about something he wanted me to draw and what not, typical nonsense…..but i know he's in a better place now.
I didn't know him well..but the quality of the memory's he left with all of you speaks volumes for his character..for his spirit. Rest well.
Please fill out the form with your lore, story, poem or just words you'd like to share about Slate! We would love to collect as many as possible!


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Sometimes, it's simply a matter of answering their questions – even before they've asked them. Often this gives patients, or potential patients, a starting place to make their decisions to seek treatment.
Make sure your FAQ page is meaty and filled with juicy bits of information. This is where they go to learn. Teach them. But keep it in bite-sized bits of information that is easy to scan. In addition, ensure that your medical practice website is mobile friendly so that patients can read your website on-the-go or in your waiting room on their smartphone.
Pictures paint a story, allowing website visitors to build an emotional connection with your team. Using videos of your team in action makes it even more personal. Images are important parts of the storytelling process that allows patients to connect with you before they've walked into the doors.
Patients want to see you and your team in action. They want to see how caring you are and feel that you'll show them the same care when dealing with them. It also makes them feel invited, wanted, and even welcomed to your practice.
This is especially true when it comes to before and after images of plastic surgery, though it can be true in any situation. Stock images actually build distrust rather than the trust you want your website to foster.
Medical and surgical procedures are frightening to most patients. They don't understand what's going to happen. Explaining what takes place during the procedure not only puts them at ease, it erases the fear of the unknown.
Don't limit the videos to explaining procedures. While they are important, videos also provide an opportunity for patients to learn more about you, your practice, your "bedside manner," and your purpose for practicing in your field – in your voice.
Experience and credentials are one thing. They are important. But those can be found in the details. Patients want to feel that you're approachable – that they can talk to you – and videos show them that this is the case.
The best thing you have to offer patients and potential patients is testimonials from actual patients. Allowing patients to post their experiences, whether with a procedure you've performed or interaction with you and your staff, provides intimate glimpses into your practice that make patients feel more at ease turning to you for their medical care and treatment needs.
If your medical practice website is missing any of these key elements you might be missing out on patients that need just a little encouragement or anxiety reduction before getting the treatment they need. More importantly, they may be missing out on the help you can provide.


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Brucie Morris
Talking Olympic Lacrosse with Steve Stenersen, FIL VP & US Lacrosse CEO
While in Poland for The World Games, I've been fortunate to have the opportunities to sit down with a lot of great minds in the lacrosse space. Today, I'm here to talk with Steve Stenersen, Vice President of the Federation of International Lacrosse and CEO of US Lacrosse.
The reason is simple. I just want to know more about FIL's work in trying to get lacrosse into the Olympic Games.
Q&A with Steve Stenersen, VP of FIL & CEO of US Lacrosse
Brucie Morris: Hi Steve, thank you for agreeing to talk to the Lax All Stars blog on The World Games. At what point did FIL decide that coming to TWG was the way to go?
Steve Stenersen: The first step for the FIL was to apply and be accepted as a member of the IWGA, which occurred in 2013. We were invited to participate in the 2017 games in Wroclaw soon thereafter and jumped at the chance to showcase women's lacrosse as part of a program that includes athletes from more than 100 countries competing in 31 different sports.
What work has been done by FIL to prepare for this step?
Recognition of the FIL by world sports organizations such as the IWGA, SportAccord and AIMS is an extensive process that requires significant effort over a number of years. FIL board members Ron Balls and Tom Hayes have spent countless hours meeting with officials from the IWGA and other international bodies, preparing extensive application processes and managing our relationship with these organizations.
The submission of our application for provisional recognition by the IOC last August is the latest effort by the FIL to introduce and showcase our sport throughout the world.
What has been the rule change with the most impact so far at TWG 2017?
I think most would agree that ten-a-side is the biggest change in rules for this event. That change was driven by the practical limitations by the IWGA relative to maximum number of athletes they can accommodate at a World Games. Squad sizes for this event were capped at 15, so a change in the number players allowed on the field was logical.
Photo: ShutterLax.com
Coincidentally, trial ten-a-side rules were approved by the FIL members at our General Assembly just last week. Certainly, any evolution of rules (men's or women's) can be controversial, but it's my view that we need to appropriately evolve rule sets that both preserve the best of men's and women's lacrosse…and better position our sport for increased growth and visibility throughout the world.
We plan to survey players from the participating teams to get there thoughts on their experience playing ten-a-side in Wroclaw. Ironically, I think we sometimes forget that this game is ultimately for the players, and their input is critical to our rule decisions.
Have there been any discussions over lacrosse at TWG 2021 in Birmingham, Alabama?
We've had some wonderful discussions with the leadership of the 2021 Birmingham World Games while in Wroclaw. They are very supportive of including both men's and women's lacrosse in the 2021 event program, but it's ultimately the decision of the IWGA leadership.
IWGA board members have visited our women's competition, and they will write a review of the competition from their perspective…and share those results with us.
If the FIL is fortunate enough to be invited to showcase both women's and men's lacrosse in Birmingham in 2021, there is no doubt that we will have to accept similar rule changes for the men's competition, as well, such as reduced squad sizes.
I'm sure we will be discussing the potential of a reduction in the number of men's players allowed on the field and game duration, as well.
What impact do you think Jim Scherr, the new FIL CEO, will have on the organisation?
The FIL, nor its predecessors have ever had the resources to hire full-time staff, until now. There's no doubt the organization will benefit greatly from Jim's experience and leadership.
In the short term, we'll be working with Jim to transition administrative and operational roles from volunteers, as well as develop our operational plan and evolved priorities for the next year.
Does the FIL have a goal year to attempt an Olympic Games bid?
Achieving formal recognition of the FIL by the IOC is certainly one of our goals, as is advancing our organization's status within the international sports bodies of which we are currently fortunate to be a member.
Inclusion in the Olympic program is separate from IOC recognition…and a challenging path. However, we believe that the FIL can position lacrosse well over time to be considered.
What further targets and developments do nations need to achieve to strengthen our Olympic Games bid?
The sport has grown significantly throughout the world in recent years. Increasing international participation is essential to our Olympic aspirations, and we plan on investing more significantly – as resources allow – in international development. Particularly in Africa and South America…continents where lacrosse is only just emerging.
In regards to rule changes, can you clarify explicitly what the IOC are looking for in regards to the different versions of our sport? Specifically on equipment and contact.
The number of athletes per team is a primary consideration, as are the venue requirements for competition, the duration of a game, and the pace of play.
The IOC is looking for sports that are exciting and attractive to younger audiences, and we believe lacrosse is well-position to meet that criteria.
Looking back to the Rathbones Women's Lacrosse World Cup in Guildford. What lessons have FIL learnt about operations and growth of a World Cup to match other premier world events?
The English Lacrosse Association did a wonderful job hosting this year's World Cup. The challenge facing the FIL and our members is how to evolve the world championship to maximize the profile of the sport in a format that is manageable and profitable.
FIL membership recently agreed to cap the number of teams participating in a World Cup to 30. This is a sizable reduction from the 38 that competed in the 2014 men's world championship and an important step to address this challenge.
What has your favourite memory been from the past three weeks of international lacrosse?
Too many to count! At the world championship, it was great to see several first-time participants. The Haudenosaunee were able to overcome immigration challenges to attend. Intensity of the semi-final and final games has never been greater. England capturing bronze on home soil was special.
At the World Games, seeing Poland take the field for the first time in women's competition was the best.
Do you have anything else to add?
I'm so proud of and thankful for the athletes, coaches, support staff and officials coming from every participating nation. Particularly those who traveled from England to Poland to compete in the IWGA World Games so soon after the FIL world championship.
They all have made an incredible commitment to represent our sport and their respective nations, and they have done so with distinction. They are now a very important part of lacrosse history.
More from Wroclaw
Thank you very much to Steve Stenersen and the FIL for taking time to sit down with me.
I'll have plenty more stories, interviews, and insight from The World Game through the week! Keep your eyes peeled and minds open.
The World Games Blog
Day 2 – Polish Doughnuts Win Over Krispy Kreme Fans
Day 1 – First Steps for Olympic Lacrosse
Brucie is seen as an inspiring coach, a reasonable women's umpire, an acceptable men's referee, and/or a shockingly bad player. Can't dodge a pole to save his life, so he prefers playing box. Van Wilder to some, Austin Powers to the rest. He was the UCL Sports Personality of the Year 2013, though he should have won in 2012 and 2014 too.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Check out this bit from my next novel, a war story.
There's a zillion things I could say about music and writing (or exercise, or escape, etc.) but, for now, I'll just include this song, "Check My Brain" by Alice In Chains.
Awake at 4:45 this morning and at my laptop at 5:03.
Why? Why do it? I'm going to be dog-tired this afternoon. It'll be a little tougher during a workout. I may get short with the kids (still off for the Silly Season break). I'll definitely be yawning when I read them tonight, in another 13 hours. I'm always yawning these days. Why do it?
Because my fourth novel "Tempest Road" is a bit of a mess and I'm excited about correcting it.
Because the work needs full attention before kids roam the house.
Because my various to-do lists – that amorphous storm of obligations and desires – will be calling once the sun is up.
Tired and groggy and inspired (or not) this is my time.
And it may be all the time I have.
Idly watching a plane slide across the clouds, George works on a piece of spinach stuck in his teeth. The Thai food was a good pick for lunch. Of course, he didn't know that, two hours later, he'd be here, in this conference room.
Behind him, a tidy packet of paper sits stapled on the mahogany table. His signature is needed on the last page.
"Sorry about the wait," Colleen says, closing the door softly.
"M-hm," George says, turning to face this woman.
In a scarlet dress with what one would call a plunging neckline, Colleen is a stunning vision at 50. Or she could be–if not for this.
She slides into a chair and gestures to the one near her, malice in an open, upturned palm. George decides to keep things civil, or moderately civil.
Colleen says nothing. George's eyes float over her knees and crossed legs, up to the diamonds in the choker at her throat. It all seems wrong. At least her earrings don't have feathers, some other gaudy attempt at allure.
Another moment passes in silence and stillness.
Finally, in response, she slides the papers closer to him. The severance agreement includes six months' salary plus two thousand shares of company stock. The company thanks you for the years of shepherding and bleary eyes and blood.
Defeated, eyes once again returning to the diamonds at Colleen's throat–to the canines concealed behind her smirk–George reaches for the pen.
I hate the self-promoting thing, I really do. But it's nice to share good news, that validation that us writers really need.
"The Churning" is getting positive reviews, averaging 4.9 stars on Amazon, wa-hoo! Maybe, after all these years of mistakes, blunders, self-fouls, etc., I know what I'm doing.
Check it out (cheaper than a latte, I should add).


What are the signs of flour quality change?
What are the potential problems encountered in flour storage?
How should choice and use of biscuit flour be managed?
Dusting flour does not flow freely. What can be done?
The vital wheat gluten is forming lumps during dough making, why?
Why has the sugar in the silo become hard and lumpy?
The particle size of the granulated sugar is too fine at the mixer, why?
Is it better to use sugar from bags rather than from bulk?
Why do sugars in bags become hard and lumpy, what is the solution?
Why are there sediments in the syrup containers?
The syrups are fermenting in storage how can this be prevented?
How can rancidity be controlled?
How and why is fat plasticised?
How should butter be prepared for use in dough?
What are antioxidants and when should they be used?
What is the optimum quantity of lecithin to use in a dough?
How should Skimmed Milk Powder be dispersed?
How should cheese be prepared for inclusion in dough?
What preparation of fruit is needed before use in the factory?
Why could the inclusion of sultanas into dough affect the consistency?
How can the hardening of dried fruit during baking be avoided?
How can chopped dried fruit be best handled?
What storage and handling precautions should be taken with fruit pastes and syrups?
What are the important aspects of proteinase use in dough?
What are the important quality and storage aspect for flavours?
Why is the enrobed chocolate soft and cheesy?
The chocolate chips do not set hard after the cookies have cooled.
What happens if the sodium bicarbonate does not disperse in a dough?
Why are there legal problems with the use of SMS?
Why is magnesium bicarbonate used in wafer batter?
What are the economics of recycling waste dough and biscuits?
How much biscuit recycle can be used?


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Worldwide Skiing Unlimited For One Seasonal Lift Ticket
By Jenna Crawford - December 4, 2019
If you've ever gone skiing, you've no doubt heard of the Vail resorts on all the best slopes.
If you haven't ever gone skiing, they're giving you the greatest reason ever to start.
From British Colombia to Switzerland, this mountain resort chain has gone where every powder-loving skier loves to go and set up a beautiful camp that snow-seekers can feel at home in no matter where they go. And for those who can't simply choose just one skiing destination for the season, they have what you could only call a winter wonderland dream come true: an Epic Pass that allows you to go to every Vail resort and select partners around the world, and lasts the entire winter season.
"A number of years ago we made this decision to provide a historic discount for what it would cost for people to come to our resorts," explained Robert Katz, CEO of Vail Resorts. "The catch though, was we wanted people to buy that product before December. We were really creating this trade where the company and our resorts got certainty and in return our guests got this great deal. It's been an unbelievable success story for us. We now sell almost a million season passes."
But they've also expanded their sales to some short-term pass options and even single-day passes, so that those who need a quicker fix can still join in on the fun.
With the Epic Pass:
You Can Ski Around the World
Whether you want to jump between Whistler and the Rockies or the Dolomites and the Alps, the Epic Pass covers your time on the slopes at any of their 69 resorts and cooperating partners – including places like Vail, Breckenridge, Japan's Hakuba Valley and more.
You Save Significantly
While the shorter passes can range in price from place to place, with some specific locations being even more expensive for less days than the seasonal pass on the whole, the Epic Pass is one price fits all. No matter what, it's more bang for your buck.
You Get Flexibility
With an Epic Pass, you can split your days between as many resorts as you want, and they don't even have to be consecutive. Pick and choose to your heart's content!
You Get Access to Other Discounts
Once you have a season pass, you also get into the Epic Pass Club, which offers discounts on things like hotels, food, bike rentals, and chair lifts.
You Have to Buy Early
To take advantage of the Epic Pass or the Epic Day Pass, you have to buy by late November or December. The season pass or days you purchase will then be valid for the 2019/2020 season.
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Matt Joy led the A group. Ten walkers started their walk from Rossadrehid on north side of the Galtees. Their walk took them over Knockastakeen in beautiful sunshine with panoramic views and lunch overlooking Borheen Lough before continuing up Cush and picking up a track to lead them home. The pace was good and the company made the day – thanks to all.
Ollie Walsh led the C walk. The group of 11 walkers started on south west end of Galtees at 313 mtrs high then went to temple hill and back in 3 and half hours on a fabulous day with great views in all directions. Few new walkers and a very enjoyable day for all.


My client, a top law firm in Qatar, are interested in speaking with candidates from either corporate M&A or dispute resolution (litigation, arbitration) backgrounds. The firm are known in the region for their local expertise and connections and carry out a high volume of cross-border work in both the corporate and disputes sectors, with a particular focus on construction law.
This is an ideal opportunity for those looking to gain international experience in a highly desirable expat location with the prospect of internal progression within the firm.
Please note that unfortunately due to current Visa restrictions in Qatar, applicants with the following nationalities cannot be considered at this stage - Egyptian, Lebanese, Nigerian, Kenyan. Applicants with dual nationality i.e. U.S. will be considered.
For further information, submit a CV for the attention of Rebekah Allen, our Middle East consultant.


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Quarantine concerns loom over NHL participation in Olympics
Some NHL players say they are unsettled by word that a positive COVID-19 test during the Winter Olympics in China could lead to a long quarantine.
Whitecloud scores twice, Golden Knights top Red Wings 5-2
Zach Whitecloud scored two goals in his first game back after hand surgery and the Vegas Golden Knights defeated the Detroit Red Wings 5-2.
Red Wings' defensive woes continue as skid reaches three with loss in Vegas
The Detroit Red Wings' defensive issues continued Thursday during what has been a miserable road trip. The Vegas Golden Knights scored four goals in the second period and went on to defeat Detroit 5-2 at T-Mobile Arena. The Red Wings (8-9-2) embarked on the trip with some momentum, having won four of five. The Red Wings had a strong first period, outshooting Vegas 13-8, but the frame ended scoreless. The Red Wings played catch-up the rest of the way.
Vegas defeats Seattle, 4-3, ruins Kraken league debut
Max Pacioretty scored twice and the Vegas Golden Knights defeated the Seattle Kraken 4-3 in a battle of the two newest teams in the NHL.
NHL tracking pucks this season, opening up gambling options
The latest generation of NHL pucks allow infrared cameras to constantly connect the vulcanized rubber with a puck and player tracking system.
NHL reaches out to Lehner after social media accusations
The NHL has reached out to Robin Lehner to set up an interview after the goaltender made several accusations on social media.
Vegas trades Fleury to Chicago as goalie carousel spins
The Vegas Golden Knights have traded reigning Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to the Chicago Blackhawks.
Oilers' McDavid doubles up as Hart, Lindsay award winner
Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid ran away in the voting to win his second Hart Trophy as NHL MVP after leading the league in points.
How to Watch the Vegas Golden Knights vs. Montreal Canadiens (6/24/21) - Stanley Cup Semifinals (Game 6) | Channel, Stream, Time
On Thursday night, the Montreal Canadiens have a chance to stun the hockey world, again, as they are one win away from the Stanley Cup Finals after beating the Vegas Golden Knights in game five. After Vegas tied the series in Montreal, the team was ready to go for game five at home, and had some good chances on the Canadiens' Carey Price early. It is crunch time for the Golden Knights, as they look to avoid being knocked out in the semifinals for the second year in a row. Or go with Lehner, who stole the show in his lone start in game four? What: Stanley Cup SemifinalsWho: (1) Vegas Golden Knights vs. (4) Montreal Canadiens (Canadiens lead 3-2)When: Thursday, June 24Time: 8:00 p.m.
How to Watch the Montreal Canadiens vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6/22/21) -- Stanley Cup Semifinals (Game 5) | Channel, Stream
The semifinal series between the Vegas Golden Knights and underdog Montreal Canadiens is down to a best-of-three after the Golden Knights needed an overtime win in game four to even the series at two games apiece. However, their offense was stymied by Golden Knights' goaltender Robin Lehner, who was making only his second start of the postseason. Vegas would tie the game after Brayden McNabb potted his first of the playoffs in the third, forcing overtime for the second game in a row. Then, just over a minute into the extra frame, Nicolas Roy scored his fourth of the playoffs to give the Golden Knights a 2-1 win. What: Stanley Cup SemifinalsWho: (4) Montreal Canadiens vs. (1) Vegas Golden Knights (Series tied 2-2)When: Tuesday, June 22Time: 9:00 p.m.
Rantanen scores OT winner, Avs up 2-0 in series vs. Knights
Mikko Rantanen scored a power-play goal 2:07 into overtime, Philipp Grubauer outdueled fellow Vezina Trophy finalist Marc-Andre Fleury and the Colorado Avalanche beat the Vegas Golden Knights 3-2 to take a 2-0 lead in their second-round playoff series.
Vegas' Reaves suspended 2 games by NHL for hit vs. Avalanche
Vegas forward Ryan Reaves was suspended two games by the NHL for his roughing and unsportsmanlike conduct on Colorado's Ryan Graves during the Golden Knights' 7-1 loss in Game 1 of their second-round series Sunday.
Avalanche blaze past Knights 7-1 in penalty-filled Game 1
Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog each scored twice as the well-rested Colorado Avalanche made quick work of Vegas with their speed, beating the Golden Knights 7-1 in a skirmish-filled Game 1 of their second-round playoff series.
Fresh Fleury gives Golden Knights big boost vs. Wild
Vegas Golden Knights goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has stopped 63 of 65 shots from the Minnesota Wild over the first two games of their West Division playoff series.
Avalanche top Golden Knights 2-1, close in on 1st in West
NHL: Virus protocols not 'relaxed' for vaccinated players
The NHL says it has not told players virus protocols would be relaxed when a team reaches a certain threshold of vaccination.
Minus coaching staff, Vegas loses to Blues 5-4 in shootout
CORRECTS TO SHOOTOUT, INSTEAD OF OVERTIME - St. Louis Blues center Brayden Schenn (10) scores on Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Robin Lehner (90) in the shootout of an NHL hockey game Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2021, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)LAS VEGAS – Missing all their coaches, Max Pacioretty and the Vegas Golden Knights still managed to earn a point. David Perron and Brayden Schenn scored in a shootout Tuesday to give the St. Louis Blues a 5-4 victory over Vegas. Pacioretty got his seventh career hat trick for the Golden Knights, who were without their entire coaching staff because of COVID-19 concerns. The Golden Knights were 1 for 6 with a man advantage and are 3 of 26 (11.5%) this season.
NHLs final four have gotten deeper with plenty of newcomers
Chandler Stephenson won a Stanley Cup title two seasons ago with the Washington Capitals, the team he was still playing with at the start of this season. He was fired by San Jose in December and hired a month later after the Golden Knights parted ways with Gerard Gallant, the coach who took them to the Stanley Cup final in their inaugural season two years ago. Tampa Bay's free-agent additions last summer were Maroon and veteran defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, then defenseman Zach Bogosian became available in February when Buffalo terminated the 12-year veteran's contract. I think guys like Patty (Maroon), guys like Barclay, they kind of allow us to play with our chests a little bit puffed out. New York hasn't been to a Stanley Cup final since 1984, a year after winning its fourth title in a row.
Canucks cruise to 5-2 win over Vegas, even series 1-1
Tanner Pearson also scored for Vancouver, and Jacob Markstrom stopped 38 shots including 21 in the second period. It was the first game back for Toffoli since the first game of the qualifying round against Minnesota on Aug. 2. Toffoli, standing behind the net, delivered a tape-to-tape pass to an incoming Horvat, who blasted it past Lehner. Horvat scored his second goal by taking Brock Boeser's backhanded pass in front and tucking it past Lehner for his eighth playoff goal. Pearson added the final Vancouver goal into an empty net.


You can easily keep track of your newspapers, remote controls and other small things by storing them on the shelf under the table top.
-You can easily keep track of your newspapers, remote controls and other small things by storing them on the shelf under the table top.
-Ash is a natural hardwearing material. The surface has been made even more durable by a protective coat of lacquer, which also helps it keep its natural wood feel.


We get up close and personal with Alexa, the 'brain' behind Amazon's eagerly anticipated voice-controlled device: The Amazon Echo.
As soon as you turn on your Amazon Echo, you'll meet Alexa. Alexa is the Voice Service employed by the Echo, which has finally been launched here in the UK.
The voice controlled hands-free device is a cylindrical speaker with an array of seven microphones at the top. Rather like the Star Trek computer, Amazon's experiment in AI is being pushed as an omnipresent service that all homes will come to rely on. The design is sleek, in-offensive and would fit nicely into any space. The Echo would look right at home in any bachelor pad. The power cable is quite short and it needs to be plugged in at all times, so once set up the Echo will in all likelihood stay in one place.
Officially, Alexa's capabilities range from playing music (Spotify is one of Alexa's 'skills'), to providing news, weather and information, checking sports stuff, and giving a helping proverbial 'hand' with life admin such as list making and setting alarms and timers. It's also ideal for controlling Smart Home devices like a Hive thermostat.
There's no doubt that Alexa has potential, but when testing it out earlier the GQ team did find that it wasn't quite as easy to use as it seemed in the Amazon demo. You had to be standing really quite close for Alexa to pick up your commands and questions, and there were a few things we asked for which she just didn't have an answer. That being said, we were really impressed with the way that Alexa used Bing search technology. Alexa is certainly the most intelligent voice-controlled device without a screen that we've come across.
Alexa did pass the crucial "what is Snoop Dogg's real name?" (answer: Calvin Cordozar Broadus, Jr.) and proves handy for music, responding quickly to requests to play a certain song or adjust the volume. But, there were occasions when perhaps it was a little too loud for her to hear our requests, as she chose to resolutely ignore us more than a couple of times. Alexa can also do other vitally useful things such as request you an Uber, book you a take away from Just Eat, share a Jamie Oliver recipe with you or check train times via National Rail Enquiries.
The product has done fantastically well in America - there are millions already in homes over there - thanks to the thousands of skills available making life for the average couch-potato even easier. Alexa is built in the cloud, so she's always getting smarter and can learn new skills. The more you use the Echo, the more it adapts to your speech and personal preferences.
Alexa did have to be adapted for a UK audience because, you know, we need our speaking computers to be able to know what the Chelsea score is - clever Alexa recognised our bluff and assured us that, whilst there's no Chelsea match today "Chelsea will play on Saturday against Hull City" - and to just generally understand our culture. Alexa can reference Monty Python, and when asked what the "meaning of life is", true to Douglas Adams, she confirmed that it's forty two.
Now she's here, you'll probably be hearing a lot more of her. The "Alexa" technology is being built into cars from BMWs to Fords, into Samsung fridges and into Sonos products, to name a few.
Alexa is a cooler, more intelligent and less annoying Siri. It's fun, in a kind of creepy, fear-of-the-future sort of way. Oh, and as if she couldn't get even more British, she also has a huge repertoire of what might well be the worst Dad jokes ever recorded.


In the other side of the same room were the rest of the guests, signing autographs.
I queued first for Sophie Aldred, as I didn't have her in my book. I have reserved the first few spreads for each Doctor, and if appropriate their companions, so I wanted her to sign a very specific page.
She very nearly signed on the page reserved for Sylvester, but I caught her in time. Explaining my reasoning, I showed her earlier pages where I have Nicola Bryant opposite Colin Baker. She immediately picked up on where Colin had written THE TAILOR and asked why. I said "I'm a tailor!" And she asked if I had made the costume I was wearing, which I had. Sophie was impressed and I took the opportunity to give her one of my business cards so she could take a look at my blog - not that I was entirely expecting that would happen.
I had already got Wendy Padbury and Sarah Sutton in my book from their recent appearance in at a signing session in Barking, so I only needed John Leeson and Louise Jameson.
I got both of them to sign opposite Tom's autograph from the recent Big Finish Day, making for a trio of lead stars from what was for me the golden era of 1970s Who.
There was then the chance to get a group photo with all the companions in attendance.
Sophie told her colleagues about my costume, having apparently looked at my website already!
I came back at 1:15 in time for Toby Hadoke in conversation with Louise Jameson.
She gave an interesting talk, recounting her time on the show with great affection and occasionally mixed emotions.
This seamlessly flowed into the live commentary over episode two of The Sun Makers, which Louise had specially chosen.
It might not be everyone's top choice of story - frankly it rates pretty low on my list - but I was more than willing to hear what she had to say.
She revealed it was made during a time when she and Tom weren't entirely seeing eye to eye and rehearsals and recordings could become strained between them. So script writer Robert Holmes contrived the story such that episodes two and three had the pair separated to follow their own individual plots, resulting in minimal face to face contact. For this Louise was eternal grateful at the time!
Some interesting facts came to light, including one of the lead actors being almost totally deaf. Richard Leech had a distinguished career but had progressively lost his hearing. This did not come out in his performance, so continued to work regardless. Louise recalled as long as you were within his eyeline he could pick up his cues and perform as any other member of the cast.
I did grab a bite to eat, which meant I did miss the start of Nigel Fairs in conversation with Sarah Sutton at 2:45, but what I did see she gave a very engaging talk.
I hadn't entirely appreciated how she got into acting, something she did without much professional training. As a juvenile she had been constantly guided by others regarding her performance, so had muddled through. When she was cast in Doctor Who she was as an adult, so found herself without the guiding voices she had so relied on before. Thus, she explained, her performance could be quite patchy, with her flouncing off set at ends of scenes to arrive in the next calm as a cucumber as if nothing had happened.
This became evident as we watched Arc Of Infinity episode two, picking up from Colin Baker apparently shooting Peter Davison dead in the previous cliffhanger.
Due to a technical glitch we quickly realised the sound was dramatically out of sync with the picture, to the degree that whole lines of dialogue were coupled with the wrong actors, making discussions between The Doctor and Nyssa absolutely hilarious!
Sarah made the best of it as she told us about Colin Baker's headgear, which had a brightly coloured feathered crest to denote his superior rank. What the costume designer had overlooked was it was too tall to go through the doors on set, so Colin was relegated to carrying the helmet under his arm for a majority of his scenes. The cast named it Henrietta after a chicken and made clucking noises between takes!
Sarah pointed out one very particular piece of flouncing off acting she did in the episode, and aware the sync issue would ruin the moment, she spoke the line in with the picture at the exact correct moment to the appreciation of the entire audience. The sync was perfect!
3:45pm saw Toby Hadoke in conversation with Wendy Padbury, who was thoroughly enjoying her day meeting the fans and recalling her time on Doctor Who.
I caught up with some friends during her live commentary, but returned to the hall by 4:45pm, when it was time for Sophie Aldred to take to the stage and chat to Nigel Fairs.
Although her time in the series isn't looked back on as the best years of the classic run, she explained how everyone was still as passionate and caring about making the episodes as good as possible.
She was asked about the Gainsborough style portrait The Doctor and Ace come across in Windsor Castle during Silver Nemesis.
She had been dressed up in full costume, photographs and a large print made. This had been overprinted by one of the scenic artists to create what appeared to be a 300 year old portrait. Ultimately the scene was cut from the broadcast episode, and Sophie managed to get the picture for her wall after the episode was finished, and still has it to this day.
Thanks for your interesting post. Wish I could meet Tom Baker in person since I've heard so many nice things about him! I did get to meet Louise Jameson in Chicago who was an extremely wonderful, accessible person who asked me a bunch of questions instead of the other way around! Living in the United States will make it next to impossible to meet Tom Baker... he's my favorite, you know?
I admit to liking "The Sunmakers" quite a bit. Such a lovely story about taxes and death... and how the very rich gets away with lots of money. Sort of thing that happens in the US right now!
Well, it's back to doing some Doctor Who fan fiction starring my female Doctor. Hoping to get back to my original works one of the days too!


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Sande bypass contract awarded
GERMANY: Deutsche Bahn has awarded a consortium of Strabag, Ed Züblin and Strabag Rail a €115m contract to upgrade or replace 5·7 km of the railway from Oldenburg to the JadeWeserPort container terminal at Wilhelmshaven in Niedersachsen.
As well as double-tracking 1·7 km of existing line, the 3½ year contract includes construction of a new 4 km double-track alignment to bypass the town of Sande. The track on the existing alignment would then be removed.
Stabilising the peat soil in the area will require the use of around a million cubic metres of sand filling and 200 000 m of geotextile-encased sand columns each 12 to 15 m long to reduce settlement while stabilising the subsoil.
'The upgrade will strengthen European rail freight transport as well as the container hub at Wilhelmshaven', said Strabag CEO Thomas Birtel on August 7.
Freight bypass funding agreed
GERMANY: A funding agreement has been signed to enable the construction of a 6·2 km railway bypass which will allow freight trains to reach the JadeWeserPort development without passing though the town of Sande.


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Outsourcing: Method for Scaling Steep Slopes | Article
Outsourcing Excellence Award - Most Improved Process Compaq Computer Corporation and Rational Software Corporation
Would you settle for a black and white photograph of a brilliantly colored rose garden? Until the early 1930s, you would have, simply because a color photograph wasn't an option. Sure, the process for color film had been invented, but it had not been refined, and companies had not invested in the equipment for the new process. Professional photographers didn't even bother to learn the new color process because there was no market for it.
Along came Kodak. Its Kodachrome images contained no silvery metallic granules, so they were more suitable for enlargement. Plus the film was faster, so it required less sunlight. The rolls of Kodachrome film even made the photographers' lives easier, for their equipment became less cumbersome. And when Kodak in 1935 released a 16mm motion-picture film on Kodachrome and displayed it in store windows, a new market was assured.
What Kodak did for improving the process of color photographs, Compaq Computer Corporation did for Rational Software Corporation. Rational Software develops and distributes software tools that Al Nazzaro, the company's senior operations manager, describes as a software development platform that improves the speed, quality and predictability of software projects.
When he arrived at Rational in 1998, the company was using 14 different vendors for its manufacturing and distribution processes. "We were doing the kitting in-house and managing the shipping externally," Nazzaro recalls. "We had people chasing down parts all the time, and we were basically running by the seat of our pants trying to buy component inventory. Implementing a system to handle this process was too expensive. So we realized it was not our core competency and we were never going to be able to do it well. The process was too costly, and the logistics of managing that on a worldwide basis were too complex."
But the growing developer aimed to become a billion-dollar company and needed scalability and overseas infrastructure. They looked at adding manpower, but the inconsistencies in their demand stream made that impractical. When they did a costing analysis of the operational part of the business and got some benchmark quotes from other companies, they found out they were "not even in the ballpark" for managing their processes.
Starting up the Mountain
Rational's decision to outsource was presented to 20 companies worldwide in a Request for Proposal. To get the maximum benefit from suppliers' ideas as to best solutions, they considered several models, from the Compaq solution (which includes subcontracting some functions to third-party vendors) to looking at printing businesses with media documentation capabilities that were trying to become distributors.
In due diligence, they eliminated half of the companies bidding for the work. "We ruled them out because of financial insecurity," explains Nazzaro. "We were nervous about getting into this type of relationship because there is an inventory liability position that they have to sit on. So if they are not financially secure enough to be able to manage something like that, it really puts us behind the eight ball."
Compaq was attractive because of its stability, reputation and financial security. But the drawing card, with 40% of Rational's business overseas, was Compaq's infrastructure and its ability to be a global single point of contact. The supplier's proactive approach was also a deciding factor. "I was one of the few people on the decision-making committee here who was on the cusp," states Nazzaro. "I said they were too big or we were too small. But, going forward, they proved me wrong. Their management team just blew us away, and they came in with the resources to make this a successful relationship right at the beginning. They were very proactive about giving us ideas about how we could be better at what we do, and that gave us a really good feeling of having a partner instead of a vendor."
Their two-year contract signed in 2000 includes both penalties for not meeting service level specifications in quality or delivery performance, as well as financial rewards from online sales at Rational Press. The eCommerce site is owned and managed by Compaq, so it reaps the royalties from sales but also bears the liability of receivables and collections. From soup to nuts, Compaq's fulfillment and distribution division now manages the files, manufacturing, assembly and distribution of Rational's products.
Tough Territory
The path up the steep slope of process improvement called for some tricky footing and a teamwork approach. The aggressive transition of work and inventory from the existing vendors to Compaq took six months. But, while they were just getting acquainted and learning to work together, they met with big challenges they hadn't expected. According to Nazzaro, the work that came from the prior vendors was "in a mess. We honestly thought we had a handle on inventory," he says. "But we didn't. We thought we knew what the files looked like. But we didn't." And the technical issues involved in transferring Rational's order feeds into the Compaq system and receiving shipping confirmation was on a large scale that caught Rational off guard.
As a result of a series of acquisitions Rational had made, its procedures could be described as "kind of catch as catch can," according to Nazzaro. So it was an enormous challenge to put a standard operating process together. Against this background, the two began their outsourcing relationship.
"Compaq is a very process-driven company; but our operations really weren't, to be very frank," Rational's operations manager states. "We really had to challenge ourselves and be honest and upfront with the fact that we were not as good as we thought we were. It was a bitter pill to swallow. But Compaq was very helpful in assisting us with consolidating things down from 14 vendors. We were surprised at how quickly they were able to fill the gaps we had. Their project management skills are just stellar."
Like the engine of a freight train pulling tons behind it, Compaq leveraged its expertise and resources to pull the quality of Rational Software's manufacturing and distribution processes up to world-class level. Compaq worked with Rational's pre-press group and its stable of contracted writers to shave five days off the product introduction cycle time. They redesigned the product covers and boxes; besides the better look, it decreased cycle time. Compaq has recommended a different type of boxing material that potentially will save 20-25% of Rational's packaging costs. They implemented better paper materials, which cut down on costs. And they use print methods that give Rational a lot more flexibility.
Acknowledging his initial doubts about the outsourcing relationship were wrong, Nazzaro says he is "really impressed" with Compaq, especially because of the unexpected customer support. The outsourcer gave everybody at Rational Software an iQuery tool, enabling them to check on orders and inventory. "It really helped to empower some of the users here," comments Nazzaro.
"We didn't ask them to do these things. They just offered and said it might help to make the work easier," he comments. "They have just jumped on board to really help us." When they call Compaq to request more support at the last minute, or to expedite last-minute, next-day deliveries, there is never any reluctance on the supplier's part. "Despite the contractual terms, they are responsible and flexible and always find a way to take care of what we ask. Compaq truly is a good partner."
The supplier's systems, technology, processes and tools are great, Nazzaro would agree. But it's the people who make the relationship. They take a team approach "from the top all the way down," he says. It builds an outstanding feeling of partnership. "They make us feel very important," he adds. "And that's a nice feeling to have."
Lessons from the Outsourcing Journal
For a global process, a supplier who is a single point of contact is the best choice.
If your process to be outsourced is not well documented or has complexities that will challenge the game plan for transitioning the work to the supplier, choose an outsourcer with a good reputation in project management skills.
The key to success in outsourcing relationships is people with a proactive, teamwork approach.
Tags: article, award winners 2002, benefits of outsourcing, case study, Compaq, distribution, order fulfillment, provider selection process, Rational Software, switch service providers