Systems and methods are provided for processing derivative product orders at an exchange. Traders provide derivative product order risk data to the exchange. The order risk data may include maximum delta, gamma and/or vega utilization values for derivative product contracts based on the same underlying product. Before executing a trade, a match system analyzes the trader's current utilization state and the utilization that would result after the trade. The match system may then execute all or a portion of the trade.
The present application is a continuation-in-part of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 10/611,458, filed Jul. 1, 2003, which is a continuation-in-part of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 10/385,152, filed Mar. 10, 2003. The entire disclosures of both priority applications are hereby incorporated by reference.
The present invention relates to derivative product trading methods and systems and, in particular, to methods and systems that utilize order risk data.
Computer systems and networks increasingly are being used to trade securities and derivative products. Computer systems and networks provide several advantages when compared to manual methods of trading. Such advantages include increased accuracy, reduced labor costs and the ability to quickly disseminate market information.
Options are frequently traded via computer systems. An option may be used to hedge risks by allowing parties to agree on a price for a purchase or sale of another instrument that will take place at a later time. One type of option is a call option. A call option gives the purchaser of the option the right, but not the obligation, to buy a particular asset either at or before a specified later time at a guaranteed price. The guaranteed price is sometimes referred to as the strike or exercise price. Another type of option is a put option. A put option gives the purchaser of the option the right, but not the obligation, to sell a particular asset at a later time at the strike price. In either instance, the seller of the call or put option can be obligated to perform the associated transactions if the purchaser chooses to exercise its option or upon the expiration of the option.
Computer implemented systems for trading derivative products can increase a market maker's price exposure. In the open outcry marketplace, a market maker makes markets in strikes/spreads in a serial process. As a result, the market maker is never at risk of having more than one of their prices acted upon simultaneously. In contrast, computer implemented systems allow market makers to provide bid/ask spreads for several strikes and spreads simultaneously. The parallel price exposure in the electronic options marketplace can pose a risk to the market maker in that they can quickly accumulate a large risk position before they can cancel/modify their resting orders. This type price exposure is known as in-flight fill risk.
Existing attempts to protect against in-flight fill risks have resulted in reduced market making participation and corresponding detrimental affects on liquidity, trading volume and price discovery.
Therefore, there is a need in the art for improved derivative product trading methods and systems that allow traders to protect against in-flight fill risks.
The present invention overcomes problems and limitations of the prior art by providing trading methods and systems that utilize order risk data provided by traders. The order risk data includes order risk parameters, such as maximum delta, gamma and/or vega utilization values for derivative product contracts based on the same underlying product. A match system may then limit the trader's in-flight fill risks by tracking the trader's current order risk parameter utilization state and analyzing potential trades to determine how those trades will impact the trader's order risk parameter utilization state. The match system may also limit cumulative risks by canceling orders after an order risk parameter utilization state has been exceeded.
In one embodiment, advantages of aspects of the present invention are provided by a method of processing derivative product orders at an exchange. The method includes receiving derivative product order risk data including at least one threshold value corresponding to at least one order risk parameter. An order for a derivative product is received from a trader. As used herein "trader" includes a customer submitting an order and is not limited to mean a professional trader. The derivative product order and a trader's current order risk utilization state are utilized to calculate utilization data. Next, the derivative product order is processed in a manner determined by the derivative product order risk data and the utilization data.
In another embodiment, advantages of aspects of the present invention are provided by a method of processing derivative product orders at an exchange. The method includes receiving derivative product order risk data including at least one threshold value corresponding to at least one order risk parameter. An order for a derivative product is received from a trader. A trader's current order risk parameter utilization value is then determined. Next, the derivative product order is executed when the trader's current order risk parameter utilization value does not exceed the threshold value.
In yet another embodiment advantages of aspects of the present invention are provided by a method of managing risks associated with derivative product orders placed at a plurality of exchanges. The method includes transmitting to a first exchange first derivative product order risk data including at least one threshold value corresponding to at least one order risk parameter. Second derivative product order risk data including at least one threshold value corresponding to the at least one order risk parameter is transmitted to a second exchange. Next, a trader's current order risk utilization states at the first exchange and at the second exchange are determined. The determination may then be used to transmit to the first or second exchange an offset value to adjust the order risk parameter.
FIG. 7 illustrates a front-end system that may be used to manage risks associated with derivative product orders placed at a plurality of exchanges.
Aspects of the present invention are preferably implemented with computer devices and computer networks that allow users to exchange trading information. An exemplary trading network environment for implementing trading systems and methods is shown in FIG. 1. An exchange computer system 100 receives orders and transmits market data related to orders and trades to users. Exchange computer system 100 may be implemented with one or more mainframe, desktop or other computers. A user database 102 includes information identifying traders and other users of exchange computer system 100. Data may include user names and passwords potentially with other information to identify users uniquely or collectively. An account data module 104 may process account information that may be used during trades. A match engine module 106 is included to match bid and offer prices. Match engine module 106 may be implemented with software that executes one or more algorithms for matching bids and offers. A trade database 108 may be included to store information identifying trades and descriptions of trades. In particular, a trade database may store information identifying the time that a trade took place and the contract price. An order book module 110 may be included to compute or otherwise determine current bid and offer prices. A market data module 112 may be included to collect market data and prepare the data for transmission to users. A risk management module 134 may be included to compute and determine a user's risk utilization in relation to the user's defined risk thresholds. An order processing module 136 may be included to decompose variable defined derivative product and aggregate order types for processing by order book module 110 and match engine module 106.
Computer device 114 is shown directly connected to exchange computer system 100. Exchange computer system 100 and computer device 114 may be connected via a T1 line, a common local area network (LAN) or other mechanism for connecting computer devices. Computer device 114 is shown connected to a radio 132. The user of radio 132 may be a trader or exchange employee. The radio user may transmit orders or other information to a user of computer device 114. The user of computer device 114 may then transmit the trade or other information to exchange computer system 100.
The operations of computer devices and systems shown in FIG. 1 may be controlled by computer-executable instructions stored on a computer-readable medium. For example, computer device 116 may include computer-executable instructions for receiving order information from a user and transmitting that order information to exchange computer system 100. In another example, computer device 118 may include computer-executable instructions for receiving market data from exchange computer system 100 and displaying that information to a user.
FIG. 2 illustrates a system in which traders 202 and 204 exchange information with a match system 206, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention. Trader 202 is shown transmitting a variable defined derivative product order 208 and order risk data 210 to match system 206. Variable defined derivative product order 208 includes the identification of a derivative product and a variable order price. Variable defined derivative product orders are described in greater detail below in connection with FIG. 3. Order risk data 210 may act as a throttle to limit the number of transactions entered into by trader 202. Order risk data may include maximum and minimum values of delta, gamma and vega to utilize over a given period of time, such as a trading day. Trader 204 transmits derivative product orders 212 and 216 to match system 206. Each trader may transmit several derivative product orders and may associate order risk data with one or more of the derivative product orders. As shown in order 212, one or more of the orders may include the identification of a hedge transaction.
Match system 206 may include several modules for determining prices, matching orders and executing transactions. An order book module 218 may be included to maintain a listing of current bid and offer prices. A price calculation module 220 calculates order prices based on price determination variables provided as part of variable defined derivative product orders. Price calculation module 220 may also calculate order prices based on formulas received from traders. For example, derivative product order 208 may include a formula that is a function of an underlying contract, delta and gamma. Price calculation module 220 may be configured to calculate an order price every time the price of the underlying contract changes.
An order processing module 236 may be included to decompose variable defined derivative product and bulk order types for processing by order book module 218 and match engine module 228. A controller 232 may be included to control the overall operation of the components shown coupled to bus 234. Controller 232 may be implemented with a central processing unit.
An order risk management module 222 is included to limit as in-flight fill risks. For example, trader 202 provided maximum and minimum delta, gamma and vega utilization values to match system 206. Those values may be stored in order risk management module 222 and tracked and computed before executing transactions.
FIG. 3 illustrates an order risk management module 302 in accordance with an embodiment of the invention. A database 304 stores order risk parameter settings. Column 304 b, for example, includes delta utilization threshold values. Delta utilization threshold values may be included in order risk data 210 that is transmitted from trader 202 to match system 206. Database 304 may also include the current state of order risk parameters. Column 304 c, for example, includes the current delta utilization state for the entities listed in column 304 a. The current utilization state of an order risk parameter is calculated by adding together the utilization values of the order risk parameter from previous trades. For example, if a trader is involved in two trades having individual delta utilization values of +45 and +60, after the second trade is executed, the trader's delta utilization state would be equal to +105.
Database 304 shows an embodiment in which several levels of order risk parameters may be used. For example, firm A has offices X and Y and employs traders 1-4. Trader 1 is obligated to comply with the order risk parameters for himself, office X and firm A. Providing order risk parameter settings in a hierarchal manner allows entities to allocate risks among subordinate entities.
Order risk management module 302 may also include a calculation module 306 for calculate order risk parameter values. An offset module 308 may be used to process offset values received from traders. An offset value may be used to provide an adjustment to an order risk parameter threshold value. For example, firm A can increase its delta utilization threshold to 220 by providing an offset value of 20. In one embodiment of the invention, an entity may allow subordinate entities to provide offset values and place limits on the use of offsets. Match system 206 may also be configured to regulate the use of offsets.
FIG. 4 illustrates a method of processing derivative product orders at an exchange, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention. In step 402 a matching system receives derivative product order risk data including at least one threshold value corresponding to lease one order risk parameter. Step 402 may include receiving order risk data 210. Next, the match system receives an order for a derivative product from a trader in step 404. Step 404 may include receiving a variable defined derivative product order, as has been described above. In step 406, the match system utilizes the derivative product order and a trader's current order risk utilization state to calculate utilization data. In some embodiments of the invention, step 406 may include applying the utilization of a hedge transaction that accompanies a derivative product order so that the utilization data accounts for the hedge transaction. Of course, when the trader is a subordinate entity, step 406 may include utilizing the current order risk utilization state of one or more additional entities. For example, with respect to FIG. 3, when analyzing trader 1's current utilization state, the utilization states of office X and firm A should also be analyzed. This is because trader 1 may be below his utilization threshold, but office X or firm A may be over the relevant utilization threshold.
In step 408 the derivative product order is processed in a manner determined by the derivative product order risk data and the utilization data. If the execution of the trade would not cause the resulting utilization data to exceed the relevant utilization threshold, the trade is executed. There are several alternatives for treating orders that would cause the utilization data to exceed a relevant utilization threshold value. In a first embodiment a portion of the derivative product order is executed. The portion includes the maximum number of contracts that do not cause the utilization data to exceed the threshold value. In an alternative embodiment, a portion of the order that includes the minimum number of contracts that cause the utilization data to exceed the threshold value is executed. For example, if four contracts would not cause the utilization data to exceed the threshold value and five contracts would, five contracts are executed. Of course other embodiments may involve other trading units. For example, if a contract is typically traded in units of 100 contracts, each group of 100 contracts would be treated as a trading unit and treated like the individual contracts discussed above.
In another embodiment of the invention, an entire order is canceled if the order would result in a trader's order risk utilization state exceeding the threshold value after the trade is executed. For example, if the execution of an order for five contracts would cause the threshold value to be exceeded, no contracts are executed. In one more alternative embodiment, a derivative product order is executed as long as a trader's current order risk utilization state (before execution of the order) does not exceed the threshold value.
In step 410 it is determined whether the trader's order risk utilization state exceeds a threshold value. When a threshold has been exceeded, some or all of the trader's resting orders may be cancelled in step 412. In various embodiments all resting orders or all resting orders within an option class are cancelled. Alternatively, all risk increasing orders may be cancelled. For example, if a positive delta limit has been exceeded, then all call bids and put offers are cancelled. If a negative delta limit has been exceeded, then all call offers and put bids are cancelled. If a positive gamma limit has been exceeded, then all call and put bids are cancelled. Likewise, if a negative gamma limit has been exceeded, all call and put offers are cancelled.
Returning to FIG. 2, match system 206 may include modules that perform some or all of the functions of the modules shown in FIG. 1. Moreover, match system 206 may also be coupled to some or all of the elements shown in FIG. 1. Match system 206 may also be configured to transmit warning messages to traders alerting them of order risk utilization states. Match system 206 may also include or be coupled to an interface that allows traders to check current order risk utilization states via the Internet, another network, telephone, etc.
FIG. 5 illustrates a variable defined derivative product order 500 in accordance with an embodiment of the invention. Variable defined derivative product order 500 may include a field 502 for identifying a trader's account number. The underlying contract may be identified in field 504. The expiration month of the derivative product order may be identified in field 506. The order may be identified as a put or a call in field 508 and whether the order is a buy or sell in field 510. The quantity may be identified in field 512 and the strike price may be identified in field 514. Delta, gamma, and vega values may be identified in fields 516, 518 and 520 respectively. Of course, other price determination variables may also be identified as part of a standard variable defined derivative product order.
A hedge transaction may be identified in field 522. The user may choose to make the derivative product order contingent on the existence of an available hedge transaction by selecting radio button 524. The user may also choose to use best efforts to fill the hedge order after the execution of the derivative product order by selecting radio button 526.
The formula for calculating the price of variable defined derivative product order is identified in field 528. The trader can select a standard formula 530 to compute their derivative product price or select a custom formula 532. In one embodiment, a standard formula is supplied by or sponsored by an exchange. When a custom formula is selected, the trader may also provide a formula in field 534 and the variables in field 536. In one implementation of the invention, variable defined derivative product order 500 is created in the form of an XML for HTML document created by one of the computer devices shown in FIG. 1. Variable defined derivative product order 500 may be encrypted before being transmitted to an exchange. Of course one or more additional or alternative fields may be included. For example, a reference price may be included to protect against mispricing conditions.
FIG. 6 illustrates a computer-implemented method of trading a derivative product contract that involves the use of a variable order price, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention. First, in step 602 it is determined whether the trader desires to use a standard exchange sponsored formula. When the trader uses a custom formula, the formula is transmitted to the exchange computer in step 604. Step 604 may also include the trader or exchange transmitting the formula to other market participants. In step 606, the trader transmits price determination variable values for the standard formula to an exchange computer. For example, step 606 may include transmitting delta and gamma values to an exchange computer. Step 606 may also including transmitting a formula and price determination variables to other computers so that other computers may calculate an order book. Alternatively, the exchange computer may distribute all formulas and price determination variables to user computers. In step 608 the trader receives underlying data. The underlying data may include current bid and offer prices for underlying put and call futures contracts.
In step 610 it is determined whether the underlying data has changed. The price of an underlying contract may change multiple times per second. When the underlying contract data has changed, in step 612 the trader's computer device may recalculate the order price of their variable defined derivative product order and all other variable defined derivative product orders from other users based on current data. In step 614, it is determined whether any of the price determination variables used in the formula to calculate the order price have changed. The price determination variables may include delta, gamma, and vega. When the price determination variables have changed, in step 612, the order price is recalculated. Of course, step 612 may be performed based on changes in current underlying contract data and variables. The order price may be displayed to the trader or plotted on a graph that tracks order prices.
Some of the advantages of aspects of the present invention are that they allow traders to maintain an order book and limit the amount of information that must be disseminated by an exchange computer or match system. In particular, an exchange computer or match system may transmit a plurality of variable defined derivative product orders to several different traders only when other derivative product order users establish their initial positions. Thereafter, the exchange computer may then only transmit underlying data or other data used to calculate variable defined derivative product order prices. Each trader computer may then periodically calculate current order prices based on information received from the exchange computer. For example, in step 616 it is determined whether other variable defined derivative product orders are received. When variable defined derivative product orders are received, in step 618 the trader computer may calculate new order book listings for current bids and offers related to variable defined derivative product based orders. The order book may be displayed to the trader in any one of a variety of conventional formats. After step 618, control returns to step 608.
FIG. 7 illustrates a front-end system that may be used to manage risks associated with derivative product orders placed at a plurality of exchanges, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention. A front-end order risk module 702 may reside on a terminal connected to one or more exchanges via a network, such as the Internet. Front-end order risk module 702 may comprise a portion of a software application that allows traders to interact with exchanges. A calculation module 704 functions in a manner similar to calculation module 306. Front-end order risk module 702 allows traders to manage risks associated with resting orders placed at a plurality of exchanges. For example, the trader may provide order risk data to exchanges 706 and 708. An order risk data database 710 may be included to calculate and track order risk data that has been provided to exchange 706 and exchange 708.
An offset module 712 may be used to distribute risks among two or more exchanges. For example, the current utilization of an order risk parameter at exchange 706 is equal to the utilization threshold. As a result, no additional contracts will be executed at exchange 706. However, the current utilization of the order risk parameter at exchange 708 is below the utilization threshold. Based on this information, offset module 712 may transmit offset value 714 to exchange 706 to allow exchange 706 to execute additional contracts. The use of offset 714 allows the trader to continue conducting transactions while ensuring that the combined utilization threshold is not exceeded. In one embodiment of the invention, front-end order risk module 702 prompts the trader to enter offset values. In another embodiment of the invention, offset module 712 includes computer-executable instructions that generate offset values to transmit to exchanges based on the current utilization at the relevant exchanges.
The present invention has been described herein with reference to specific exemplary embodiments thereof. It will be apparent to those skilled in the art, that a person understanding this invention may conceive of changes or other embodiments or variations, which utilize the principles of this invention without departing from the broader spirit and scope of the invention as set forth in the appended claims. All are considered within the sphere, spirit, and scope of the invention. For example, aspects of the invention are not limit to implementations that involve the trading of derivative products. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that aspects of the invention may be used in other markets. Credit market transactions, for example, involve risk parameters in the form of duration risk and default risks. The processing of appropriate orders in credit markets may include analyzing duration risk utilization and default risk utilization.
(d) processing the derivative product order in a manner that is a function of the derivative product order risk data and the utilization data.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein (d) comprises executing a portion of the derivative product order.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the portion of the derivative product order includes the maximum number of contracts that do not cause the utilization data to exceed the threshold value.
4. The method of claim 2, wherein the portion of the derivative product order includes the minimum number of contracts that cause the utilization data to exceed the threshold value.
5. The method of claim 2, wherein the portion of the derivative product order includes the maximum number of trading units that do not cause the utilization data to exceed the threshold value.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein (d) comprises canceling the order if the trader's order risk utilization state after executing the entire order would cause the threshold value to be exceeded.
8. The method of claim 1, wherein the at least one order risk parameter comprises delta.
9. The method of claim 1, wherein the derivative product order risk data received in (a) includes at least two threshold values corresponding to at least two order risk parameters.
10. The method of claim 9, wherein the at least two order risk parameters comprise delta and gamma.
11. The method of claim 1, wherein the derivative product order risk data received in (a) includes at least three threshold values corresponding to at least three order risk parameters.
12. The method of claim 11, wherein the at least three order risk parameters comprise delta, gamma and vega.
13. The method of claim 1, further including comparing the order risk data to maximum and minimum rules set by the exchange.
14. The method of claim 1, further including receiving from the trader offset data for the derivative product order risk data and (d) comprises processing the derivative product order in a manner that is a function of the at least one threshold value, the utilization data and the offset data.
15. The method of claim 14, wherein the offset data comprises an adjustment to the at least one threshold value.
16. The method of claim 1, wherein the derivative product order risk data includes at least two threshold values corresponding to one order risk parameter.
17. The method of claim 16, wherein one of the at least two threshold values represents a trader's threshold value and another one of the at least two threshold values represents a trader's employer's threshold value.
18. The method of claim 1, wherein the order for a derivative product includes a corresponding hedge order and the utilization data includes an adjustment for the hedge order.
19. The method of claim 18, wherein (d) comprises executing the order when the utilization data indicates the presence of the corresponding hedge order.
20. The method of claim 1, wherein the derivative product order comprises a variable defined derivative product order.
21. The method of claim 1, wherein the derivative product order risk data is set for a class of option contracts.
22. The method of claim 1, wherein the class of option contracts includes option contracts that are based on the same underlying product.
23. The method of claim 1, wherein the order in (b) includes a hedge order and (c) includes utilizing risk data of the hedge transaction to calculate the utilization data.
(d) executing the derivative product order when the trader's current order risk parameter utilization value does not exceed the threshold value.
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text:
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www.people.cornell.edu/pages/edo1/.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Our cover feature by veteran journalist Bill Moyers is an adaptation of the keynote speech he delivered to a standing-room-only crowd at Call to Renewal's Pentecost 2004 event.
Who knew that the pentecostal "


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From the period of 1989 to 1995, Seattle ruled the music scene. Grunge was god and all else either bowed before its Doc Martin boots or was stomped into the dirt (just ask hair metal, 1980s' pop rock, the first wave of boy bands, spandex glam rock et al). Sub Pop was the label of choice and the Seattle-based record label was at the cutting edge of a new musical and cultural movement. Do any of you remember surge cola from the Coke Company? Remember the television show Northern Exposure?
Picking the top 10 albums of the grunge movement proved to be difficult. Below you will find what I consider to be the quintessential Seattle scene records of the time. There are some influential bands that have been left off this list - such as the Melvins, Tad and Green River; sorry I only had room for ten. Also not found on this list is Alice In Chains' excellent first record, Facelift, Nirvana's Bleach and their legendary song Floyd The Barber, and Soundgarden's major label debut, Louder Than Love in 1989. This record in my opinion was the tolling bell sounding the end of days for all that 1980s' LA hair metal rubbish. Also, I wanted to give a nod to Stone Temple Pilots' first record, Core. This record was as grunge as anything at the time and one of the best records of the era. But for this article I am focusing just on the Seattle scene, and the 'Pilots hail from San Diego, California.
Honorable mention: The Presidents Of The United States Of America - self titled debut album. Coming in at the tail end of the grunge scene, the Presidents came on like a breath of fresh air, sort of like Blue Man Group on acid. With such odd songs like Lump, Peaches, Boll Weevil and their jack-wired cover of MC5's classic Kick Out The Jams the Presidents made a statement that music could be fun again, weird as hell and wonderful. Three-chord power rock meets pure insanity. If Terry Pratchett's Discworld had a house band the Presidents would be it.
The spark that beget a revolution... From the embers of this firestorm was born Pearl Jam. Andrew Wood was a prophet, a rainy day Jim Morrison. Listening to this record you cannot help but wonder about what might have been. Songs like Stardog Champion, Capricorn Sister and This Is Shangrilaare very emotive. You can feel the pain and struggle in Andrew's voice. He died in March 1990 of a drug overdose. Heroin was the bane of the grunge movement, the Achilles heel if you will. This record originally appeared as two records, the full length CD entitled Apple and the EP Shine.
An amalgam of members of Pearl Jam and Soundgarden, this collaboration was stark and pure. With both Chris Cornell and Eddie Vedder sharing vocal duties, that is reason enough to get this record. Songs like Hunger Strike and Say Hello 2 Heaven echo the melancholy of those bleak days. It is shame that this was the only release this Seattle supergroup ever made. It was meant to be a tribute to the late Andrew Wood, the lead singer of Mother Love Bone. Even amid the strolling guitars there is a certain kind of mellow, almost peaceful tonality to this record. If grunge had a spiritual side it was this record.
This was Soundgarden's biggest selling record. It was a monster. Released in March 1994, Superunknown showed Soundgarden at their most mature. Their songwriting ability really shines through on this record. It was their most diverse and musically creative collection of songs ever. The sound captured the duality of a generation, lingering sorrow and the hope of tomorrow. Songs like Fell On Black Days, Black Hole Sun and Spoonman exemplified these emotions. Most of the songs are heavy anthems but the song Half has a sub-Saharan African feel to it with bassist Ben Shepherd providing vocals. This record was a powerful testament to the talent of this band.
Arguably the most influential band on the Seattle sound, this record was released in 1991. Low-fi guitars and dirty musical genius abound on this release. Songs Generation Genocide, Thorn and Fuzzgun '91 exemplify grunge in its purist form. Mudhoney has a rather odd bent to them at times. Their record My Brother The Cow and their EP Five Dollar Bob's Mock Cooter Stew display this odd sense of humour. It's this odd sense of humour that the Presidents Of The United States Of America displayed. This band also had a reputation for being very good live. If you're a fan of grunge, not having Every Good Boy Deserves Fudge is like saying you are a fan of traditional country music without owning any Johnny Cash records.
Hailing from Ellensburg, Washington, a town more than a few miles north of Seattle, Screaming Trees brought a rural element to the grunge movement. Dollar Bill could have been a country hit today. Mark Lanegan was grunge music's answer to Jim Morrison just as Kurt Cobain was grunge's answer to Bob Dylan. This is a stunning record. Songs like Shadow Of The Season and Butterfly are the exact definition of grunge. Nearly Lost You was the catchy commercial hit. The Screaming Trees should have been bigger than they were. It almost seems unfair. I saw them in concert with Soul Asylum and the Spin Doctors and the emotion of their music translated very well live. It was a shame that their careers were hijacked by record company hi-jinks.
The second legendary record from Eddie Vedder and the boys established Pearl Jam as a legitimate contender to the title of kings of rock 'n' roll. Though they wanted nothing to do with such superficial nonsense. This record is part fury, part avalanche and part melancholy. Vedder's vocals were taut, intense and focused. The song Daughter was a monster hit from VS, but as most commercial songs go it did not truly exemplify the best music on VS. That distinction went to Rearviewmirror and the oddly titled Elderly Woman Behind The Counter In A Small Town - a beautiful and stark song. Socially conscious, environmentally aware, and lethal at any volume, VS was incredible when it came out in 1993. And like its bigger, older brother Ten, it stands the test of time.
Without argument AIC was the darkest, most menacing band of the grunge movement, Melvins included. They churned forth a storm of hurricane proportion every time they hit the stage. As good as Facelift was, this record was better. The first six songs are all career making songs. Each one stands the test of time and stands on its own. The top three songs here are: Rooster - one of the most powerful songs about the tragedy of war ever written. Rain When I Die - haunting, bleak and mesmerising. Down In A Hole - a powerful ode to addiction and the struggle to get and keep clean. Knowing what happened to Layne Staley the lyrics are utterly chilling. I want to take a moment to mention the AIC record Jar Of Flies, and the song Whale And Wasp - this is one of the most beautifully arranged songs you will ever hear.
Pure power! A harbinger of rust tinted aggression bellowing the withering ash of... well you get the idea. This record is one of the best and most intense of all the grunge records. Soundgarden was the one of the original pioneers of the Seattle sound. Each song has a personality of its own. Rusty Cage, Outshined and Jesus Christ Pose were brutal anthems to disenfranchisement. Room A Thousand Years Wide was a progressive head-trip down the rabbit hole. This album went platinum at the time but it was not Soundgarden's most accessible record. That distinction was saved for Superunknown. However, Badmotorfinger is the quintessential Soundgarden record. It certainly is a good record to play air guitar while howling at the Moon.
If it were not for Nirvana's legendary record Nevermind, this album would be the top grunge record of all time. A juggernaut of a debut record born out of the ashes of Mother Love Bone, Ten is one of the penultimate rock 'n' roll records of all time. Songs such as Once, Even Flow, Why Go and Jeremystand at the pentacle of the Seattle sound. It is the desperate soul of a generation put to music. I saw them in concert that year on Lollapalooza when they shared the bill with Soundgarden and the Red Hot Chili Peppers. I had been to many concerts before but never before had I seen 30,000 people rush forward, sort of a domino falling frenzied motion, when Pearl Jam came on stage. The crowd was mesmerised for their entire set. It is utterly inexplicable as to why Rolling Stone left this record off their top 100 list; the daft and doltish leading the blind I guess.
I remember the first time I heard this song; I was utterly blown away. I had no idea who it was but I wanted to find out. Nirvana came out of Seattle like a house on fire. Nothing could touch them. I remember seeing an interview with the lead singer of LA hair metal band Warrant at the time. When asked about the first time that he heard Smells Like Teen Spirit, he said he had just came off tour for their Cherry Pie record, was driving down the 101 when it came on the radio. He said that he physically became ill to his stomach because he said that he could sense that his type of music was about to die. How right he was. Equal parts melodic and furious, Nevermind was the hammer that drew down on the 1980s' music scene with a killing vengeance rarely seen in category five hurricanes. In addition to Smells Like Teen Spirit, the songs Lithium, Territorial Pissings and Come As You Areset fire to the spandex mindset. Singed and royally fucked, I remember all those 1980s' band taking photo ops with flannel shirts on and acting all depressed. This was the record that defined Generation X and set forth a new pop culture trend. Simply it is one of the most important rock 'n' roll records of all time.
Don't forget In Utero and the fabulous live record From The Muddy Banks Of The Wishkah - both shine in their own right and are essential when completing your collection of grunge era rock music. Simply stated, the revolution of the Seattle music scene and the advent of the grunge movement was one of the most important eras in rock 'n' roll history.


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DRAMA HUMNASHEEN EPISODE 19
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Zuckerberg wrote a program called Facemash on October 28, while attending Harvard University as a sophomore, to accomplish this, Zuckerberg hacked into protected areas of Harvards computer network and copied private dormitory ID images. Sir Syed Ahmad Khan — , whose vision formed the basis of Pakistan. Mehrunnisa and Asmat Ara are left together to pick up the shattered pieces of their life together after Hassan Munir. Arfeen panics and asks Saras aunt Aqsa whether she told Sara what happened with her mother and this prompts Haider to ask what happened, and Arfeen launches into the story. Mastana Mahi was also broadcast in India by Zindagi premiering on 6 November Mehrunnisa's brother is keen on getting her married to Shahzad, as Shahzad did not get married after the failed love affair with Mehrunnisa.
A saga that spans two generations, Meri Zaat Zarra-E-Benishan begins with the arrival of a girl named Sara at the doorstep of a man named Arfeen Abbas. In the medieval era, Judaism, Zoroastrianism, Christianity, and Islam arrived, much of the north fell to the Delhi sultanate, the south was united under the Vijayanagara Empire. Haider not being ready for marriage, argues with his father but out of his loving fathers earnest wish as also because he definitely had developed a fond feeling for Sara by now. Email required Address never made public. Asmat Aara desires children and gets her husband, married to the much younger Mehrunnisa, in hope that she would bear him the children she could not. Indias Andaman and Nicobar Islands share a border with Thailand. Hum TV series Pakistani television series debuts Pakistani drama television series Urdu-language television programs Zindagi television series.
No plays from either writer have survived, by the beginning of the 2nd century BCE, drama was firmly established vrama Rome and a guild of writers had been formed.
No plays from either writer have survived, by the beginning of the 2nd century BCE, drama was firmly established in Rome and a guild of writers had been formed 2. Asmat approves of the marriage, despite of Hassan's disapproval and after death of Hassan, she gets Aaliya married to Saqib and Safeer married to Alishba. The economy expanded in the 17th century in the Mughal empire, in the midth century, the subcontinent came under British East India Company rule, and in the midth under British crown rule.
Leave a Reply Cancel reply Enter your comment here The three complained to The Harvard Crimson and the newspaper began an investigation and they later filed a lawsuit against Zuckerberg, subsequently settling in for 1.
Current broadcasts on Hum TV. The use of drama in a narrow sense to designate a specific type of play dates from the modern era. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
Meri Zaat Zarra-e-Benishan Urdu: Asmat Ara initially gets jealous of Mehrunnisa, but later humnashren chooses to mother the twins and trades off her companionship with Hassan, which Mehrunnisa fils perfectly. Taxila had one of the earliest universities and centres of education in the world.
SIGIRI KASHYAPA MOVIE
Humnasheen Episode 19 Promo Hum Tv Drama
Membership was initially restricted to students of Harvard College, erama the first month, eduardo Saverin, Dustin Moskovitz, Andrew McCollum, and Chris Hughes joined Zuckerberg to help jumnasheen the website 6. Pakistan is a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement, the name Pakistan literally means land of the pure in Urdu and Persian.
While Greek drama continued to be performed throughout the Roman period, from the beginning of the empire, however, interest in full-length drama declined in favour of a broader variety of theatrical entertainments.
Show will air episoee a week for an hour or about 40 minutes, opening of episodes usually includes a brief introduction of invited guest and then beginning interactive talk among host and guest, usually after fifteen minutes or more shows main portion begins.
It was introduced into India by the Mughals and widely used since then and its meaning varied, referring to a region that encompassed northern India and Pakistan or India in its entirety. The Persian language was introduced into the subcontinent a few centuries later by various Persianized Central Asian Turkic and Afghan dynasties including that of the Delhi Sultanate. Facemash attracted visitors and 22, photo-views in its first four hours online, the site was quickly forwarded to several campus group list-servers, but was shut down a few days later by the Harvard administration.
She hands him a letter, and he seems shaken after reading it episodde he asks her where Saba is, and she replies that she drxma four days prior. When they arrive at Saras home, which is small compared to Arfeens mansion, she leaves Arfeen in the main room. Meray Qatil Meray Dildar Urdu: Mehrunnisa has been engaged to Shehzad Humayun Ashraf and madly in love but her fiance is unemployed.
Haider not being ready for marriage, argues with his father but out of his loving fathers earnest wish as also because he definitely had developed a fond feeling for Sara by now. Paintings at the Ajanta Caves in Aurangabad, Maharashtra6th century. I Chundrigar Road, the program airs one episode every week on Saturday night at 9,10 p. You are commenting using your WordPress. Create a free website or blog at WordPress.
The Facebook name comes from the face book directories often given to United States university students, Facebook may be accessed by a large range of desktops, laptops, tablet computers, and smartphones over the Internet and mobile networks. Standing Buddha from Gandhara. Scholars believe it to be named after the Vedic tribe of Bharatas in the second millennium B.
Jago Pakistan Jago Wonderful Indonesia. Arfeen, meanwhile, is worried that Sara humnashee eventually leave his house, the only solution he can come up with is to have Haider married to Sara.
Back in present time, Sara and Haider become good friends and epislde visits the rest of her family, including her aunts and uncles, and each person she asks refuses to give her any details about what happened. Sanam Jung hosted from 1 SeptemberSanam Jung had left on the end month of the year due to giving birth to a daughter.
MEHARBANO AUR SHAHBANO CAST
Humnasheen Episode 20 HUM TV Drama
Retrieved 22 February Shehzad enters back in their lives as an ex-accomplice of Hassan and an established businessman and helps Safeer in the loss and uncovering the real culprit of the failure, who turns out to be Najam-uz-Zaman.
Alishba also treats her in-laws in a bad manner. Colley Cibber as the extravagant and affected Lord Foppington, "brutal, evil, and smart", in Vanbrugh's The Relapse Kitni Girhain Baqi Hain also aired in India on the channel Zee Zindagi and was narrated by Kirron Kher with the role of Sutradar, a second season was premiered humnazheen 30 Octoberon the same network but with different cast 9. Drama in this sense refers to a play that gumnasheen neither a dramaa nor a tragedy—for example and it is this narrower sense that the film and television industries, along with film studies, adopted to describe drama as a genre within their respective media.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Arfeen finds a pair of Sabas old sandals, and breaks drwma in tears as he grips them, Sara sees him as he cries and wonders why he is so sorrowful at her death. A saga that spans two generations, Meri Zaat Zarra-E-Benishan begins with the arrival of a girl episose Sara at the doorstep of a man named Arfeen Abbas. Additionally, users can complain about or block unpleasant people, because of the large volume of data that users submit to the service, Facebook has come under scrutiny for its privacy policies.
You are commenting using your Facebook account.
Humnasheen Pakistani TV Drama-Watch Online Humnasheen Full Episodes
The show opens with HSYs topical monologue, then transitions into guests introduction, concluding with their interview, the show debut episode attracted positive hmunasheen from television critics and received millions viewership in Pakistan.
Badshahi MosqueLahore. Sir Syed Ahmad Khan —whose vision formed the basis of Pakistan. Their origins remain obscure, though by the 5th century BCE they were institutionalised in competitions held as part of celebrating the god Dionysus.
Ancient Greek comedy is traditionally divided between old comedy, middle comedy and new comedy, following the expansion of episdoe Roman Republic into several Greek territories between — BCE, Rome encountered Greek drama.
Episodde Imam then used to host the show, Sanam Jung came back in February and is currently hosting. With the advent of the British Raj, Persian was no longer the language of administration but Hindustani, still written in the Persian script, the name Urdu was first used by the poet Ghulam Hamadani Mushafi around
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Weather and Forecasting
2. Data and methods
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(a) Daily MSLP gradient [hPa (100 km)−1] between KTPH and KLAX vs 850-hPa temperature advection over southern CA (denoted in inset) for Sep–Apr 1948–2010 calculated from daily NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. The color of each circle indicates the mean FFWI calculated from hourly RAWS observations from 22 RAWS across southern CA (denoted in inset) during 1996–2010. Thresholds of 1.2 hPa (100 km)−1 and −4 K day−1 are chosen to delineate SAW cutoffs. (b) Wind rose of daily mean wind direction and the related daily mean FFWI expressed in percentiles from the 22 RAWS for Sep–Apr 1996–2010.
HSS (shaded) and false alarm ratio (FAR, contoured) between SAW observed from RAWS and SAW estimated from the NCEP–NCAR MSLP gradient and 850-hPa temperature advection (1996–2010). Scores are computed iteratively for all combinations every 0.1 K day−1 between 0 and −10 K day−1 (temperature advection) and every 0.02 hPa between 0 and 2 hPa (100 km)−1 (MSLP gradient).
(a) MSLP (contoured, hPa), mean temperature advection at 850 hPa (shaded, K day−1), and 850-hPa mean winds (vectors, m s−1) for SAW defined from NCEP–NCAR variables (1948–2010). (b) Daily mean FFWI (%) observed at RAWS during SAW days defined from NCEP–NCAR variables (1996–2010). Boldface circles indicate values significantly different from the daily mean state at the 95% level according to a t test.
(a) Monthly climatology and (b) interannual variability (Jul–Jun) of extreme (black) and all (white) SAW days (1948–2010).
Diagnosing Santa Ana Winds in Southern California with Synoptic-Scale Analysis
John T. Abatzoglou 1 , Renaud Barbero 1 , and Nicholas J. Nauslar 2
1 Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho
2 Division of Atmospheric Science, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00002.1
Santa Ana winds (SAW) are among the most notorious fire-weather conditions in the United States and are implicated in wildfire and wind hazards in Southern California. This study employs large-scale reanalysis data to diagnose SAW through synoptic-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors using mean sea level pressure gradient and lower-tropospheric temperature advection, respectively. A two-parameter threshold model of these factors exhibits skill in identifying surface-based characteristics of SAW featuring strong offshore winds and extreme fire weather as viewed through the Fosberg fire weather index across Remote Automated Weather Stations in southwestern California. These results suggest that a strong northeastward gradient in mean sea level pressure aligned with strong cold-air advection in the lower troposphere provide a simple, yet effective, means of diagnosing SAW from synoptic-scale reanalysis. This objective method may be useful for medium- to extended-range forecasting when mesoscale model output may not be available, as well as being readily applied retrospectively to better understand connections between SAW and wildfires in Southern California.
Corresponding author address: Dr. John T. Abatzoglou, Dept. of Geography, University of Idaho, MS 3021, 875 Perimeter Dr., Moscow, ID 83844-3021. E-mail: jabatzoglou@uidaho.edu
Keywords: North America; Mountain waves; Synoptic climatology; Climate classification/regimes; Forest fires
The Santa Ana winds (SAW) of southwestern California are characterized by strong offshore foehn winds that develop in the lee of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges that are locally intensified by channeling through mountain gaps (e.g., Burrows 1987). SAW generally are a cool season phenomenon that develop after the dissipation of the North American monsoon as radiative cooling over the high plateau of the Great Basin gives way to a thermal continental high pressure. This thermal seasonal shift in conjunction with enhanced baroclinicity during the cool season favor the synoptic characteristics of SAW featuring a strong northeastward gradient in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over southwestern California and northeasterly flow aloft in the wake of a frontal passage through the intermountain western United States (e.g., Small 1995; Raphael 2003). These conditions are manifested as mesoscale features through gravity mountain waves in a stably stratified atmosphere with a strong cross-barrier potential temperature gradient. Consequently, there is a downward momentum flux that results in strong subsidence and an acceleration of gap winds leeward (west and south) of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges with the strongest winds associated with the hydraulic jump phenomena in the wake of a topographic barrier (e.g., Gaberšek and Durran 2006; Durran 1990; Hughes and Hall 2009). The combination of strong winds and extremely dry air juxtaposed with ample and available fuel is conducive to the rapid rate of spread of fire fronts and extreme wildfire behavior in the extensive wildland urban interface in the Los Angeles and San Diego basins and pose significant direct and indirect hazards to human infrastructure and health (e.g., Schroeder et al. 1964, 264–274; Westerling et al. 2004; Keeley et al. 2004).
Numerous efforts have been made to qualify SAW using weather observations from individual stations (e.g., Edinger et al. 1964), synoptic pattern recognition (e.g., Schroeder et al. 1964, 264–274; Raphael 2003), and mesoscale and synoptic-scale reanalysis (e.g., Hughes and Hall 2009; Jones et al. 2010). Each method has its inherent strengths and weaknesses, as well as prognostic and diagnostic utility; however, an accepted definition of a SAW is lacking. Operationally, the National Weather Service Forecast Office of Los Angeles/Oxnard (NWSFO LOX) broadly characterizes SAW as an "offshore flow from the east or northeast of 25 knots (12.8 m s−1) or greater associated with very low relative humidity." However, this definition fails to specify the temporal or spatial characteristics and SAW are subjectively classified during the months of September–April (NWSFO LOX 2007, personal communications). Small (1995) notes a SAW criterion of at least a 10-hPa MSLP difference between Los Angeles, California (KLAX), and Tonopah, Nevada (KTPH), and further classifies events into those purely driven by MSLP gradient versus "stronger" events with upper-level support that reinforce subsidence and allow for downward momentum flux. More recently, Hughes and Hall (2009) identified SAW from mesoscale model output using a threshold for offshore surface wind speed over a small area of the Santa Monica Mountains and offshore waters, whereas Jones et al. (2010) identified SAW using MSLP fields from coarse-scale reanalysis. Unfortunately, these diagnostics either require mesoscale model output or are weakly defined and, moreover, have not been validated by surface-based observations.
We build upon previous studies to develop an objective method for qualifying SAW using diagnostics that represent key dynamical and thermodynamical processes. We hypothesize that SAW can be efficiently identified using synoptic-scale diagnostics that feature offshore surface gradient flow phase locked with lower-tropospheric winds and subsidence forced via cold-air advection (CAA). This procedure is not intended to supplant mesoscale models but, rather, to complement them in medium-range operational forecasting, as well as to better understand the role of SAW on the fire history of Southern California.
The majority of previous diagnostics of SAW have used station data and synoptic analyses (e.g., McCutchan and Schroeder 1973; Schroeder et al. 1964, 264–274; Small 1995). Observations can provide invaluable local data; however, local observations may be problematic as a direct diagnostic due to the fact that they are generally temporally limited, and local observations of surface wind speed, temperature, and humidity may be biased by topographic complexity and not be reflective of the broader region. By contrast, mesoscale models have been shown to resolve the spatiotemporal details of SAW and are used operationally for short-range forecasting (e.g., Conil and Hall 2006; Hughes and Hall 2009). While the observational network and mesoscale models are essential for capturing the spatial structure and intensity of SAW, the present study focuses on developing and evaluating diagnostics using coarse-scale reanalysis that captures the synoptic-scale signatures of SAW, rather than the local details of SAW. The advantages of reanalysis datasets include spatial and temporal completeness of diagnostic fields spanning numerous decades as well as potential transferability to both operational medium- and extended-range forecasting and global climate modeling experiments.
Building on previous studies that have used both synoptic (e.g., Schroeder et al. 1964, 264–274; Raphael 2003; Jones et al. 2010) and mesoscale (Hughes and Hall 2009) diagnostics to identify SAW, we hypothesize that two key atmospheric diagnostics effectively synthesize ingredients conducive to SAW events: 1) a strong northeastward pressure gradient across southwestern California and 2) strong CAA over the deserts of Southern California inland of the Transverse Range. The former criterion has been applied both operationally and in research studies (NWSFO LOX 2007, personal communication; Miller and Schlegel 2006; Jones et al. 2010), and Small (1995) showed that a KTPH–KLAX gradient of 10 hPa is a typical SAW threshold. Schroeder et al. (1964, 264–274) and Small (1995) alluded to the fact that the latter criterion was important in supporting intense events, notably in the wake of a trough passing north and east of southwestern California. Hughes and Hall (2009) showed that the strength of the lower-tropospheric temperature gradient (approximately 850 hPa) between the interior deserts of Southern California and offshore is the dominant control on the strength of SAW and facilitates local leeside intensification of winds. Cold-air advection and the associated subsidence when directionally aligned with surface-based winds strengthen downward momentum flux and accelerate lower-level winds particularly in the lee of a mountain barrier (e.g., Gaberšek and Durran 2006). Unlike the MSLP gradient criterion, no established criterion has been examined for CAA.
Both MSLP gradient and 850-hPa temperature advection are readily computed from daily National Centers for Environmental Prediction –National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis data from 1948 to 2010. We calculate the MSLP gradient [hPa (100 km)−1] between KPTH and KLAX through bilinear interpolation (Fig. 1a). Temperature advection at 850 hPa is considered over the domain of the interior deserts of Southern California (Schroeder et al. 1964, 264–274; Small 1995; inset box in Fig. 1a). Temperature advection is independent of MSLP gradient (e.g., CAA can occur without a strong onshore MSLP gradient); however, the presence of both strong CAA and an onshore MSLP gradient would have lower-tropospheric flow directionally in phase with surface-based winds to further downward mass fluxes and leeside winds.
Citation: Weather and Forecasting 28, 3; 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00002.1
Hourly surface observations from 22 Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) located in areas prone to extreme fire weather are used for validation (Fig. 1b). These 22 stations are selected from a larger suite of RAWS in southwestern California because of data completeness (<10% of hourly observations missing) from 1996 to 2010. We qualify a SAW day when 1) the daily mean (computed for the previous 24 h ending at 0000 UTC for consistency with the reanalysis) Fosberg fire weather index (FFWI; Fosberg 1978) exceeds the 90th percentile for September–April (Sep–Apr) and 2) the mean standardized wind direction is between north-northwest (330°) and clockwise to south-southeast (120°). A SAW day is classified as an extreme SAW day when the daily mean FFWI exceeds the 97th percentile. The FFWI is computed for each station on an hourly basis using relative humidity, temperature, and wind speed. The FFWI is a fire danger metric designed to track fine fuel moistures and short-term fire weather irrespective of antecedent fuel moistures, yet has been shown to be associated with large autumn fires in southwestern California (e.g., Moritz et al. 2010). For this reason, FFWI may be somewhat biased toward warmer SAW events important for wildfire hazards and less optimal for midwinter SAW events that occur under cooler conditions. Daily mean wind direction is calculated by normalizing hourly wind speed for each station by dividing by the Sep–Apr mean wind speed and calculating an average of zonal and meridional hourly wind velocities across the 22 stations. This step is taken to avoid biases imparted by particularly windy stations in the overall mean wind direction.
Relationships between the two diagnostics and the occurrence of both SAW and extreme SAW days are examined qualitatively. From these qualitative observations we explore both a two-parameter threshold exceedance model that includes MSLP and 850-hPa temperature advection, as well as one-parameter threshold exceedance models that only include one diagnostic. Model skill is evaluated using the Heidke skill score (HSS; Wilks 2006) for combinations of MSLP gradient every 0.02 hPa between 0 and 2 hPa (100 km)−1 and 850-hPa temperature advection every 0.1 K day−1 between 0 and −10 K day−1. We extract the highest HSS from the matrix of MSLP gradient and temperature advection thresholds and compare the two-parameter approach to one that only uses MSLP gradient or 850-hPa temperature advection.
Figure 1a shows a scatterplot of daily MSLP gradient [expressed in hPa (100 km)−1] and temperature advection at 850 hPa and the associated daily mean FFWI computed from surface stations data. Days with high (>90th percentile) and extreme (>97th percentile) FFWI occur almost exclusively on days with prevailing north to easterly surface winds, with only 0.6% (0%) of days with high (extreme) fire danger not having prevailing northeasterly surface winds characteristic of SAW (Fig. 1b). Figure 1a illustrates the proclivity of high FFWI days coincident with strong CAA and a large KTPH–KLAX MSLP gradient. Approximately 76% and 94% of all SAW and extreme SAW days occur with daily MSLP gradients >1.2 hPa (100 km)−1 and 850-hPa temperature advection <−4 K day−1, respectively. Moreover, extreme and high FFWI values are rarely identified outside these bounds and are far less prevalent when there is strong CAA in the absence of a strong MSLP gradient or where there is a strong MSLP in the absence of strong CAA. Hence, although the parameters are significantly correlated (r = −0.51), they represent complementary processes whereby their union is associated with the highest probability of SAW conditions.
Thresholds were objectively determined based on the sensitivity analysis of HSS using variations of the two parameters to identify surface-based SAW and extreme SAW (FFWI > 97th percentile and winds between 330° and 120°) over the common period (1996–2010). The highest HSS for SAW is found with a threshold of MSLP gradient of 1.2 hPa (100 km)−1 and a threshold of temperature advection of −4 K day−1 (Fig. 2). These thresholds correspond to the 85th percentile of Sep–Apr values for both MSLP gradient and CAA. By comparison, the 1.2 hPa (100 km)−1 MSLP gradient from the reanalysis is approximately the 83rd percentile of the daily averaged KTPH–KLAX MSLP gradient, thereby demonstrating a close correspondence between reanalysis and surface-based MSLP thresholds. A similar analysis using only extreme SAW days exhibits a similar finding, albeit with stronger thresholds of approximately 1.6 hPa (100 km)−1 (95th percentile) and approximately −8 K day−1 (96th percentile) for MSLP and temperature advection, respectively. These results elucidate the advantage of a two-parameter approach over that using only an MSLP gradient or 850-hPa temperature advection. Tables 1 and 2 show skill scores using MSLP only, 850-hPa temperature advection only, and the two-parameter approach for SAW and extreme SAW. All measures of skill aside from hit rate are improved using the two-parameter threshold approach variables. For extreme SAW, the sensitivity analysis suggests that thermodynamic forcing supersedes pressure gradient forcing, confirming the results of Hughes and Hall (2009). The inclusion of additional synoptic-scale factors, including negative vorticity advection over the inland deserts of Southern California, did not yield significant improvements in model performance.
Skill scores between SAW observed from RAWS (FFWI > 90th percentile and winds between 330° and 120°) and SAW estimated from MSLP [threshold fixed at 1.2 hPa (100 km)−1], temperature advection at 850 hPa (threshold fixed at −4 K day−1), and both variables during the 1996–2010 period. Boldface values indicate the best combination for each score.
Skill scores between extreme SAW observed from RAWS (FFWI > 97th percentile and winds between 330° and 120°) and SAW estimated from MSLP [threshold fixed at 1.6 hPa (100 km)−1], temperature advection at 850 hPa (threshold fixed at −8 K day−1), and both variables during the 1996–2010 period. Boldface values indicate the best combination for each score.
A composite of MSLP and 850-hPa winds and temperature advection coincident with SAW days is shown in Fig. 3a. Synoptic features characteristic of SAW in the literature (e.g., Raphael 2003) include a strong north-northeastward MSLP gradient and often a prominent high pressure region over the Great Basin. We note that SAW days can, however, occur without a strong high over the Great Basin with over half of SAW days having MSLP averaged over 37.5°–42.5°N, 112.5°–117.5°W less than 1030 hPa. Directional alignment of surface and lower-tropospheric flows with backing winds at higher levels (not shown) and CAA over the mountains and inland deserts of Southern California provide additional reinforcement for the downward momentum transport of winds. Negative vorticity advection at 500 hPa (not shown) and associated quasigeostrophic subsidence are observed over the inland deserts of Southern California into southern Nevada during SAW in the wake of trough passage northeast of the study area that further contribute to the synoptic-scale forcing. Figure 3b shows the daily mean FFWI recorded by RAWS surface stations during SAW days (1996–2010). All stations (except for one located inland of the Transverse Range) exhibit statistically significant high fire danger, typically above the 85th percentile (Fig. 3b). For extreme SAW days, most leeward stations have an FFWI exceeding the 95th percentile (not shown). High fire danger reflected in FFWI during SAW days is ultimately traced back to anomalously low daily mean relative humidity (<30%, or nearly 30% lower than climatology) and daily mean wind speeds typically 50% higher than climatology.
Climatology of SAW and extreme SAW over the reanalysis record (1948–2010) is created based on the two-parameter threshold approach. These results mirror the seasonal nature of prior studies with a unimodal peak during the cool season (e.g., Raphael 2003; Jones et al. 2010) adhering to the mean seasonal cycle of the MSLP gradient and temperature advection with an average of 24.6 and 7.5 days yr−1 identified as SAW and extreme SAW days, respectively (Fig. 4a). The midwinter peak in SAW events (not shown, but similar to days) is more pronounced than has been found in previous studies (Raphael 2003), but consistent with Jones et al. (2010). The limited 15-yr climatology of surface station–based SAW showed relatively more days during early autumn and spring with FFWI exceeding the 90th percentile than our two-parameter model; however, the predisposition of FFWI to warmer temperatures and lower relative humidity likely contributes to this bias. Figure 4b shows interannual variability of the number of SAW and extreme SAW events over the cool season (July–June). A significant interannual correlation was found between the frequency of SAW (r = 0.84) and extreme SAW (r = 0.77) days between the two-parameter and station-based diagnostics.
The chronology of SAW using the two-parameter threshold model was also able to detect 1) all major SAW events as compiled by the San Diego and Oxnard NWSFO's from 1995 to 2007 (NWSFO LOX 2007, personal communications) and 2) 89% of dates corresponding to all wildfire and wind-related damage storm events in San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties from 1 October 2006 to 31 December 2010 that contained the terminology "Santa Ana winds" as part of the event narrative (NCDC 2012).
Lower-tropospheric temperature advection and MSLP derived from coarse-scale reanalysis efficiently capture thermodynamic and dynamic processes that characterize SAW, as elaborated in prior studies. Threshold sensitivity analysis revealed thresholds of 1.2 hPa (100 km)−1 and −4 K day−1 for SAW, with more stringent temperature advection thresholds for extreme SAW. Independent observations from a RAWS mesonet verify the utility of this methodology in capturing days with critical fire weather and prevailing northeasterly winds that interact with the complex dynamics of terrain and fuels in the region to produce wildfire hazards (e.g., Sharples 2009).
Mesoscale models are the logical choice to provide superior information on SAW and their subsynoptic-scale manifestation over the complex terrain of southwestern California (e.g., Conil and Hall 2006; Huang et al. 2009); however, the empirical model established in this study is complementary and may be advantageous in medium-range and ensemble-based forecasts. In addition, the simplicity of the proposed methodology lends itself to usage in a research setting where more computationally intensive mesoscale models may not be readily available. For example, the retrospective chronology of SAW and extreme SAW may allow for a more thorough understanding of the role of SAW and the weather–climate continuum on the fire history of Southern California, as well as potential modulations in SAW with low-frequency climate variability and climate change (e.g., Keeley 2004; Miller and Schlegel 2006; Hughes et al. 2011).
The authors appreciate the constructive reviews by three anonymous reviewers. This research was supported by NSF Grant ATM-0801474, the NSF Idaho EPSCoR Program under Award EPS-0814387, and the Joint Fire Science Program under Awards 08-1-1-19 and 11-1-7-4. A chronology of SAW days identified using this approach is available online (at http://nimbus.cos.uidaho.edu/JFSP/pages/publications.html).


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Premna maxima is a species of plant in the family Lamiaceae. It is endemic to Kenya.

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Posted on Wed, Apr 17th, 2019 by Sean Colarossi
Bill Barr Has Been Feeding Trump Info On The Mueller Report To Help With His Rebuttal
While the attorney general William Barr's Justice Department has yet to release any version of the Mueller report to Congress or the public, he has been feeding info on the 400-page document to Donald Trump.
According to a report in The New York Times on Wednesday, some findings in Mueller's final report "will not be news to President Trump," because the White House and DOJ have already had "numerous conversations" on Mueller's conclusions.
As a result, the president's legal team has been able to get out in front of the Mueller report – which is expected to be damning – and craft a rebuttal.
More from the report:
Justice Department officials have had numerous conversations with White House lawyers about the conclusions made by Mr. Mueller, the special counsel, in recent days, according to people with knowledge of the discussions. The talks have aided the president's legal team as it prepares a rebuttal to the report and strategizes for the coming public war over its findings.
A sense of paranoia is taking hold among some of Mr. Trump's aides, some of whom fear his backlash more than the findings themselves, the people said. The report might make clear which of Mr. Trump's current and former advisers spoke to the special counsel, how much they said and how much damage they did to the president — providing a kind of road map for retaliation.
The discussions between Justice Department officials and White House lawyers have also added to questions about the propriety of the decisions by Attorney General William P. Barr since he received Mr. Mueller's findings late last month.
In an interview with MSNBC's Chris Matthews, American Constitution Society President Caroline Fredrickson said it looks like Trump and the DOJ are "coordinating" in "another act of obstruction."
"We should all be offended that this White House is coordinating with the Justice Department in what seems like another act of obstruction." –@crfredrickson #ctl #p2 pic.twitter.com/6EckYNXHfc
— PoliticusUSA (@politicususa) April 17, 2019
Barr is a shameless Trump hack
There was already little remaining doubt that Bill Barr's purpose as attorney general isn't to protect the rule of law; it's to serve as a shield for Donald Trump.
It was obvious in the four-page whitewash that he released last month after Mueller concluded his investigation. It was obvious in his refusal to release the public-facing summaries crafted by Mueller's own team. It was obvious in his decision to repeat Trump's conspiracy theories about his campaign being illegally spied on.
And it's also obvious from today's news that Barr is planning to hold a press conference on Thursday before anybody has seen the report – a clear effort to dodge accountability and further muddy the waters surrounding the Mueller's findings.
The latest reporting that Barr's Justice Department has been briefing the White House on the Mueller report in advance of its release only confirms what we've already known: Bill Barr is a shameless Trump hack who can't be trusted.
CategoriesDonald Trump, Donald Trump scandals, Editors' Picks, Featured News, Justice Department, Russia Scandal, White House
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