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Issue 144 May 2020
your regular update from Nicholas
TheWeather
'I feed live mealworms from mid April until mid July, to supplement the natural diet for nestlings & fledglings, & to help with their survival'Nicholas Watts
We've had a wonderful April; seldom have we had so much constant sunshine – 20 days of cloudless skies. With the humidity getting down to 45%, no wonder our fields dried out so quickly. Not surprisingly, April has been warmer than average, just five warmer Aprils in the last 50 years, with all of those occurring in the last 20 years. Rainfall, as we know, has been below average with a total of 30 mm for the month, 22mm of that falling in the last three days of April, our average for the past 50 years being 39 mm. Statistically, February, March and April are our three driest months of the year.
What's HappeningOn the farm
Potato planting without irrigation
We are lucky to be farmers in these difficult times. Life has been going on, not quite as normal, but everyone on the farm has been putting in a full day's work. Prices for our crops are down a bit – especially oil seed rape, as the price of that is linked to the price of oil. Oil seed rape was one of our best crops, but because the seed hasn't been treated with a neonicotinoid seed dressing for the last four years, flea beetles have devastated most crops. Some have failed completely, most have a reduced yield and now that the price of oil has come down, there will be a lot less grown. The rape seed was specifically treated to stop the flea beetle eating the rape plant but the neonicotinoid disorientated bees so the chemical was banned.
No one could ever imagine that our land would dry out so quickly as it has done. The drying winds and many sunny days during March and April helped. Most of our land is quite heavy, as it has quite a lot of clay in it. To make a good seedbed in the Spring, we needed a frost mould – made by having several frosts, each gradually crumbling the soil. That did not happen this winter. We ploughed the land when it was wet, as we had no option, and it stayed stood up as we ploughed it. We have had to throw all the tractors and power harrows we have at the land to make seed beds. Fifty years ago all we had were harrow rolls and disc harrows, which would have been no use at all. We would have been dicing and rolling the land, and by the time we had a seed bed, it would have dried out so much nothing would have grown. Two fields for potatoes were so dry and hard we could not make a suitable seedbed so we had to irrigate them first and we now have a lovely seed bed on those two fields.
As we haven't been interrupted by bad weather, we are left with just 15 acres of potatoes to plant. We still have to plant our bird seed, which is not normally drilled until early May. Any seeds drilled during the last ten days of the dry weather would not have grown without the recent rains, so they have done us a lot of good.
Our next job on the farm will be drilling the canary seed, millet and the sunflowers in that order and as soon as possible while we have moisture in the soil. After that we will have to protect the sunflowers from pigeons – while they are emerging they are very attractive to the pigeons, but once they have come up and the cotyledons have opened up, the pigeons have no interest in them. Most seeds, after they have been sown, put a root down and then send a shoot up so once through the ground, the cotyledons are formed. Sunflowers act differently by putting a root down and the seed itself, without the husk, is pushed up and as it emerges through the soil it breaks into two and the cotyledons are formed. It is the sunflower heart that is pushed up to break into two, no wonder the pigeons find them so tasty.
Moorhen
Farms this year are very different habitat from what they usually are at this time of year, due to the unprecedented wet weather we had last year. For the past 20 years, most farms have been 75-90% Winter cropping, but this year they are 75-90% Spring cropping and many of the dykes and ditches have been cleaned out.
Reed Buntings and Sedge Warblers will be returning to the dyke they nested in last year – they may find there is no vegetation in that dyke. Skylarks will be nesting a bit later. These semi-redundant dykes and ditches do need cleaning out every so often, but not all in the same year.
Reed Warblers will be the first birds to nest in those newly cleaned out dykes as they like vertical reeds to nest in. After two years, Sedge Warblers and Reed Buntings will nest there, as they like a tangled vegetation to nest in. After 10 years, when the dyke has become dry, Whitethroats will nest in them.
Although the winds have been in the NE here, our summer migrants are all arriving on time. They are so fantastic, it is the Warblers I am thinking of – most of them travel singly, flying at night. However, when I hear the first one, I probably hear a second one of that species the next day. Most of our Fenland Warblers have arrived now, Blackcap were the first, then Sedge Warbler, Whitethroat and Lesser Whitethroat and finally Reed Warblers. By the time you read this, most of them will have arrived. We have had one species that has been here all winter – the Cetti's Warbler. Normally heard on nature reserves, but we have had one on our farm near the Welland for over a year now. This is in an area where we have dug a pond and there is an overgrown hedge. The NE winds may not have hindered our warblers arriving because further south the winds were probably SE, but they have hindered the Fieldfares leaving. On April 25th, I saw a flock of about 25, these could well be birds that nest north of the arctic circle, as I do know that Fieldfares in Belarus will have young in the nest now. The snow melt does not come until the end of May near the Arctic Ocean, so they have plenty of time to get up there still.
So far, on my surveys this Spring, Skylark numbers seem to be down and that could be due to the dreadful weather we had in June last year. It also doesn't look very promising for the Barn Owls, as there are too many flying in daylight here in South Lincolnshire.
Our wetland in Baston Fen is doing very well, lots of nesting Lapwing with a few young running about. Five drake Shoveler are sitting around, meaning that the ducks are most probably on eggs. Three drake Gadwall and five pairs of Redshank are yet to go down on eggs. There are a few Snipe around still, two pairs of Little Ringed Plover, two pairs of Oystercatchers and three pairs of Tufted Ducks nest prospecting. I have also seen three pairs of Coot, Sparrowhawks and Marsh Harriers around.
The Moorhens on our garden pond are doing well. Five young hatched in the floating house that we made for them and, 10 days later, we still have five young. Moorhens do not nest in the same nest twice, so this house has four rooms and each room has its own entrance. This means they can nest in the house out of sight from overhead predators all through the summer. We built this floating house because our local Moorhens have been declining in numbers, and I didn't want another species to disappear from the garden. In fact we have built five floating houses that are now all on ponds around the farm.
Due to the current situation the Farm Walks in May & June are cancelled. All ticket purchases will be refunded.
We will advise nearer the time if the walks in July & August will be cancelled or still go ahead
Issue 152 January
December was a wet month, with our local pumps having to manage 8 million tonnes of water
Issue 151 December
This month Nicholas discusses wheat shortages & how the harvest hasn't been so good this year


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Share this Story: Explained: 12 facts about Daylight Saving Time
Explained: 12 facts about Daylight Saving Time
QMI Agency
Oct 31, 2014 • October 31, 2014 • 2 minute read
Daylight Saving Time ends on November 2nd at 2 a.m., meaning the clocks go back an hour, and we get an extra hour of sleep! Here are 12 fun facts about the history of Daylight Saving Time:
12. IN CANADA
Some regions in Que., most of Sask., Southampton Island and some areas in B.C. do not observe DST. In the U.S.: Ariz. and Hawaii don't use DST.
11. IN THE U.K.
Uses British Summer Time (BST), which begins the last Sunday of March and ends the last Sunday of Oct.
10. PERMANENT DST
Staying on summer hours all year, with no time shifts, has been implemented in Argentina, Iceland, Russia, Uzbekistan and Belarus.
9. IN THE BEGINNING
The Daylight Saving Act of 1917 was enacted by the Dominion of Newfoundland to adopt daylight saving time (DST), thus making it one of the first jurisdictions in North America to do so. DST was not instituted in the United States until March 31, 1918.8.
8. MARCH TO NOVEMBER
Before 2006, our DST ran from the first Sunday in April until the last Sunday in Oct. It now runs from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November
In 1916, Germany and its allies were the first countries to use DST as a way to conserve coal during the First World War. Britain, parts of Europe, Canada and the U.S. eventually followed suit. In most cases, daylight time ended with the armistice.
Click through our interactive graphic below
6. HE REALLY SAID THAT
In March, Toronto Mayor Rob Ford tweeted 'Daylight Saving Time starts this evening, turn your clocks back and change the batteries in smoke alarms' which set twitter buzzing with jokes. He later sent out a new tweet, 'Daylight Saving Time starts this evening, turn your clocks forward and change smoke alarm batteries before going to bed tonight.'
5. IT'S LIKE THIS...
Winston Churchill once described Daylight Saving Time like this: "An extra yawn one morning in the springtime, an extra snooze one night in the autumn… We borrow an hour one night in April; we pay it back with golden interest five months later."
4. MONEY MAKER
In 1984, Fortune magazine estimated that a seven-week extension of DST would yield an additional $30 million for 7-Eleven stores, and the National Golf Foundation estimated the extension would increase golf industry revenues $200 million to $300 million.
3. SAFETY REMINDER
Many fire departments encourage people to change the batteries in their smoke detectors when they change their clocks because Daylight Saving Time provides a convenient reminder.
2. ANTARCTICA
In Antarctica, there is no daylight in the winter and months of 24-hour daylight in the summer. But many of the research stations there still observe Daylight Saving Time anyway, to synchronize with their supply stations in Chile or New Zealand.
Recent research indicates that the number of pedestrian fatalities from cars rises at 6:00 p.m. during the weeks after clocks are set back in the fall. Walkers are three times as likely to be hit and killed by cars right after the switch than in the month before DST ends. This could be due to drivers going through an adjustment period when dusk arrives earlier.
Explained: 12 facts about Daylight Saving Time Back to video

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Q: Single quotation mark in select on vb.net and the dataset is from reading xml file Hi I need to get the rows for user input. I cannot get the data with the input has single quotation mark in select. The dataset is read by xml file.  There has data for the following example
There is my code
'The ds is return by reading xml file:
Dim sw As New StringWriter
Dim ds As New DataSet
ds.ReadXml(strXMLFilePath)

Dim total As Integer = ds.Tables(0).Rows.Count - 1
Dim rows As DataRow() = New DataRow(total) {}
Dim sortOrder As String = "FileName ASC"
'Dim strGroup as string="Pop" (worked- has rows)
Dim strGroup as string="Uncle's brand" (no rows)

  rows = ds.Tables(0).Select("Category='" & strGroup & "'", sortOrder)

A: Try using two single quotes. In other words, change the strGroups into this:
Dim strGroup as string="Uncle''s brand"

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Nosilla seems to be asserting her corporeality with Allison more than anything.
Don't you dare deny our love.
Don't you dare deny my existence and my suffering.
To be serious, you have the right of it. Nosilla has been ignored for a long time, and she will not be ignored now.
What exactly are the red spots on Nosilla's body? Scales or sores?
It's interesting that Nosilla is yanking Allison forward by reaching directly into her shirt/body and pulling. Perks of not being fully material, I suppose.
Allison's hair is looking pretty disheveled. Sure, she's fallen, run around a bit, and had her hair blown about( http://brainchild.suzannegeary.com/comic/chapter-1-page-39/ ), but it's also working as a nice indicator of her mental state.
So everyone else appears as a monster or sorta merged WITH a monster like half and half. and Nosilla looks like Allison. maybe she was…cast out somehow?
I effingg love this comic, I'm on the edge of my seat after each new page and I always end up re-reading some parts. Thank you so much for sharing,love it!
Discovered this comic a while ago and just rediscovered it today.
Have to say it's gone in a different direction than I thought it was going. Can't wait to learn more about what's happening.
My theory is that this might be how they actually look, but they've forgotten or can't recognise it because of some powerful influence. Or maybe this version of them is their "brainchild". Whatever that is.


Rep. Diane Black, R-Tenn., introduced legislation Tuesday that would reclassify a first-time illegal entry at the border as a felony instead of a misdemeanor.
Her Zero Tolerance for Illegal Entry Act would change the punishment for those apprehended illegally entering the U.S. for the first time to one year and one day in prison, which therefore makes it a felony. Today, the misdemeanor offense comes with jail term of up to six months.
The Tennessee lawmaker said she is proposing the change because she believes it would prevent would-be illegal entrants from coming to the U.S., and encourage migrants to apply for asylum at ports of entry instead of using smugglers to travel to the U.S.-Mexico border then cross between ports.


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Neovii and Fosun Pharma Enter Into an Exclusive Agreement
Neovii and Fosun Pharma Enter into an Exclusive Agreement for Development and Commercialization for Grafalon in China
Neovii and Fosun Logo
ST. GALLEN, Switzerland, Sept. 07, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Neovii Pharmaceuticals AG ("Neovii"), a Swiss based global specialty-care biopharmaceutical company, and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Industry Development Co. Ltd ("Fosun Pharma Industry"), a subsidiary of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. ("Fosun Pharma", Stock Code: 600196.SH, 02196.HK), a global pharmaceutical and healthcare industry group deep-rooted in China, have entered into an exclusive agreement (the "Agreement"), under which Neovii has granted Fosun Pharma Industry an exclusive license to develop and commercialize Neovii's Grafalon® (rabbit anti-human T-lymphocyte globulin, ATLG) in Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR and Taiwan region.
Under the Agreement Neovii is entitled to receive upfront, regulatory and commercial sales milestones as well as proceeds from supplying Grafalon® to Fosun Pharma Industry.
The parties' aim is to firstly strengthen Grafalon's position in the field of transplantation medicine in China, in which it is already approved for marketing and included in China's National Reimbursement Drug List. Further, the Agreement entails clinical development to expand Grafalon's regulatory approval in China to the prevention of Graft versus Host Disease following allogenic stem cell transplantation ("SCT"), so as to align its approved usages in China with those in Europe and other countries worldwide. Additional objective is to evolve Grafalon's usages from transplantation medicine to auto-immune and onco-hematology conditions, where Grafalon has the potential to positively-transform the lives of patients suffering from severe diseases with high unmet need. The Agreement also sets the foundation to expand the cooperation to additional products of Neovii, starting from NB-15, a novel, clinical-stage therapy that is under development for the treatment of Mitochondrial neurogastrointestinal encephalomyo-pathy (MNGIE), an ultra-rare, devastating and uniformly fatal disorder.
Wen Deyong, CEO of Fosun Pharma said: "Grafalon has an excellent effect in solid organ transplant recipients, especially those with a high risk of rejection. We are very pleased to be working with Neovii to bring this product into China. Going forward, we will leverage our advantages in nephrology and hematology and more areas to make the medicines accessible to patients and benefiting more Chinese patients."
Dr. Christian Loss, CEO of Neovii said: "As a leading global pharmaceutical and healthcare industry group in China, Fosun Pharma is the ideal partner to develop and commercialize Grafalon in China. This collaboration positions Grafalon for sustained growth in China and advances the development in stem cell transplant and beyond as in devastating auto-immune and other diseases. We look forward to working with Fosun Pharma to bring Grafalon to more patients in-need in China."
Neovii was supported by Marshal Ma of Link China Pharma Solutions (Cambridge, UK based), who gave valuable help in the negotiation process.
About Grafalon
Grafalon® (Rabbit anti-human T-lymphocyte globulin, ATLG, formerly also known as "ATG-Fresenius S" and "ATG-F") was developed by Neovii and is used to improve patients' outcomes in transplantation medicine in more than 50 countries and, in selected countries, also to treat aplastic anemia. With more than 250,000 treated patients, 30 years of clinical experience and leadership position in many countries, Grafalon® has transformed the way transplant teams manage the care of their patients and is uniquely addressing significant unmet needs. The authorized use for each country varies based on the design of the registrational trial and the individual health authority requirements. For more details, please refer to the approved product information for each respective jurisdiction.
About Neovii
Neovii is a Swiss-based, global, fully integrated, rapidly-growing, commercial-stage, specialty-care biopharmaceutical company with sales in more than 50 countries. Neovii has a proven track-record of over more than three decades in pursuing its mission to bring novel life-transforming therapies to patients that suffer from devastating conditions with significant unmet medical needs. Neovii is a member of the Neopharm Group that, through its family of companies, is engaged in research, development and commercialization of a broad range of products and added-value services in three major segments: Pharmaceutical, Medical and Consumer Healthcare, with revenues exceeding $500 million and more than 1,000 employees worldwide.
Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements
This press release, the statements herein or those of representatives and partners of Neovii related thereto contain, or may contain, among other things, certain "forward-looking statements". Such forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties. Such statements may include, without limitation, statements with respect to the Neovii's plans, objectives, projections, expectations and intentions and other statements identified by words such as "projects," "may," "could," "would," "should," "believes," "expects," "anticipates," "estimates," "intends," "plans," or similar expressions. These statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of Neovii's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results (including, without limitation, those relating to the SCT approval in China) may differ significantly from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that are subject to change based on various factors (many of which are beyond the Neovii's control). Neovii undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
For more information, please visit www.neovii.com
Neovii Pharmaceuticals AG
Email: belen.podesta@neovii.com
About Fosun Pharma
Founded in 1994, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. ("Fosun Pharma"; stock code: 600196. SH, 02196. HK) is a global innovation-driven pharmaceutical and healthcare industry group deep-rooted in China. Fosun Pharma directly operates businesses including pharmaceutical manufacturing, medical devices, medical diagnosis, and healthcare services. As a shareholder of Sinopharm Co., Ltd., Fosun Pharma expands its areas in the pharmaceutical distribution and retail business.
Fosun Pharma is patient-centered and clinical needs-oriented. The company enriches its innovative product pipeline through diversified and multi-level cooperation models such as independent research and development, cooperative development, license-in, and in-depth incubation. Fosun Pharma has formed technological platforms for innovative small molecule drugs, antibody drugs, and cell therapy with a focus on key disease areas including oncology and immunomodulation, metabolism and digestive system, as well as central nervous system. Fosun Pharma also vigorously explores cutting-edge technologies, such as RNA, gene therapy, ADC and PROTAC, to enhance its innovation capabilities.
Guided by the 4IN strategy (Innovation, Internationalization, Intelligentization, and Integration), Fosun Pharma will uphold the development model of "innovation transformation, integrated operation, and steady growth", with the mission of creating shareholder values through strengthening its independent R&D and external cooperation and enriching its product pipelines, as well as promoting the global networks and enhancing operational efficiency. Fosun Pharma will actively promote the digital and physical business layout in the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry and is committed to becoming a first-class enterprise in the global medical and health market.
For more information, please visit Fosun's official website: www.fosunpharma.com.
1: Neovii and Fosun Logo
Zenas BioPharma แต่งตั้งนายแพทย์ Simon Lowry เป็นประธานเจ้าหน้าที่ฝ่ายการแพทย์
DeepX and Tadano Reveal Their World's-First Automation Technology for Mobile Cranes


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Posted on April 25, 2020 April 26, 2020 by John Scott
Murder in the Mountain Kingdom: The Political Trial of Thomas Thabane
In 2017, the former wife of Lesotho's Prime Minister was found murdered. Three years later, Prime Minister Thabane has found himself implicated in the case at an especially fragile time for both the nation and the wider region. In this piece, John Scott examines how Thabane's trial is interacting with the Covid-19 pandemic, and the destabilising impact it is having on one of the world's poorest nations.
For an in-depth, bespoke briefing on this or any other geopolitical topic, consider Encyclopedia Geopolitica's intelligence consulting services.
On the evening of 14th June, 2017, a fifty-eight-year-old woman named Lipolelo was driving home with a friend through the town of Masana, just outside Maseru, the capital of Lesotho. It would have been cold and dark on the roads, as the small, mountainous Kingdom approached the hemisphere's winter solstice. Landlocked entirely by South Africa, Lesotho is one of the highest sovereign states on Earth, and at that time of year, snow is common even in the valleys. According to police records released several days later, an unknown assailant flagged down Lipolelo's vehicle, produced a gun, and shot both her and her companion before leaving the scene apparently unnoticed. Lipolelo died at the scene. Two days later, the woman's estranged husband, an already prominent politician named Thomas Thabane, was inaugurated as Prime Minister of Lesotho.
Nearly three years on, Thabane now faces allegations that he was personally involved in his former spouse's murder that night on the road in 2017 – implications aided by court documents that appear to link his mobile phone records to the alleged assailant. Thabane's current wife, Maesaiah, has already been formally charged with complicity in the killing, and now the prime minister himself has instigated constitutional proceedings to secure, in his mind, complete immunity from criminal justice. Citing a medical emergency, he failed to appear in court in February to face charges, and his representatives prolonged the process further by escalating the question of his potential immunity to the High Court.
Nevertheless, the events have tried the patience of an already fractious legislature, and members of the country's National Assembly, from both sides of the main political divide, have since disarmed the prime minister of the ability to call early elections on his terms. Opposition parties have strongly criticised Thabane's integrity from the start, meanwhile members of his own All Basotho Convention party now see him as a leader incapable of winning public support, let alone carrying a cohesive political agenda whilst mired in these affairs. As a result, he now faces almost certain deposition through a vote of no confidence if he continues to renege.
The tensions reached their first climax on 18th April when Thabane deployed the armed forces to the streets of Maseru, citing threats from seditious elements within the establishment who sought to overthrow him. This immediately prompted South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to despatch a team of envoys to the Kingdom to diplomatically intervene. The gravity of the situation was demonstrated by the fact the delegation was led by ex-Cabinet minister Jeff Radebe, one of the most prolific and experienced political forces in post-apartheid South Africa. Ramaphosa's evident concern for the stability of Lesotho mirrored a previous effort last year by South Africa to assist the Kingdom's economy. A series of negotiations in 2019 culminated in Lesotho forming a promising statutory authority to press ahead with much-needed economic reforms which, without the current impasse, may have provided a much needed boost to the national economy.
And yet, Thabane has again stood defiant. Even though Radabe's team reportedly mediated an agreement whereby Lesotho's Senate would provide an unprecedented legal route for Thabane to retire without dissolving parliament, he soon afterwards told reporters he in fact has no intention to bow to international pressure to resign, and that the decision would be his alone. The prime minister is approaching his eighty-first birthday – some thirty years beyond his own people's average life expectancy – and he evidently sees no reason to yield his power too easily.
The trial of Thomas Thabane, at least in the political sense if not a judicial one, is remarkable for many reasons. He may soon prove to be the first sitting prime minister of Lesotho to be charged with murder. In a country that is no stranger to military coups over the decades, he may also in fact prove to be the first prime minister to voluntarily resign. But beyond the personal implications for him and his family, he also happens to be a prime minister presiding over one of the very few countries on Earth not to officially confirm any cases of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The pandemic may on the surface seem unconnected, but could yet have acute political relevance to the embattled premier's future. Indeed, as with countries across the globe – Brazil, Italy, Tanzania, Australia to name but a few – this new microscopic threat possesses real political potency for the future of the nation.
Like many countries the world over, the Government of Lesotho has now extended a pragmatic COVID-19 lockdown for another two weeks. On the one hand, an apparent lack of infections in the country could be spun as testament to prescient and decisive leadership in the opening phases of the global outbreak. On the other hand, even a cursory look at the reality in Lesotho would reveal that a lack of confirmed cases is not down to decisive leadership, but in fact simply down to a lack of testing capability. This is the case in much of the region, including in nations that border the continent's worst affected country so far and Lesotho's only neighbour, South Africa. Moreover, nurses in Lesotho have held strikes in recent weeks because of a lack of personal protective equipment or access to sick pay – concerns that would hardly be relevant to health professionals who had genuine reason to believe their hospitals were free of the virus.
While the health system's chronic lack of resources in Lesotho is certainly not Thomas Thabane's doing – the country has been one of the very poorest nations in the world since its independence from the UK in 1966 – the shape of public health in the coming months will be central the the embattled premier's legacy. He himself served his first political post as Health Secretary for Leabua Jonathan, the second Prime Minister of Lesotho, in the 1980s, and later adopted the portfolio of Foreign Minister at the time of King Letsie III's declaration that HIV/AIDS in the country constituted a natural disaster. Should international assistance in the form of COVID-19 testing paint a much more tragic picture of coronavirus in Lesotho than has so far been the case, then the legitimate question will doubtless be asked: why did the prime minister adopt such an obstructionist approach as Sub Saharan Africa entered its darkest phase of the global pandemic, particularly in the face of international mediation? To be potentially convicted of the murder of one person may be damaging enough; but to be potentially labelled as the leader who diverted government attention and resources while citizens suffered in obscurity would be ruinous.
Credible coverage within Lesotho places Finance Minister Moeketsi Majoro as Thabane's most likely successor. He will have not a moment to celebrate, but immediately face a set of monumental tasks. These loom not just in terms of the reputation of his party, but also in terms of unprecedented economic recession, and a pandemic that will underline the existing prevalence of HIV.
Amid all of this, for the time being, justice remains evasive for Lipolelo Thabane. It may be some time before a verdict is delivered around the prime minister and his wife, but regardless of any trial's outcome, Lesotho's political storm is far from over.
Suggested e-learning courses related to this topic:
Contemporary Issues in World Politics – University of Naples Federico II
Humanitarian Response to Conflict and Disaster – Harvard University
Lessons from Ebola: Preventing the Next Pandemic – Harvard University
Epidemics I & II – Hong Kong University
Global Public Health – United Nations SGD Academy
International Human Rights Law – Université catholique de Louvain
Suggested books for in-depth reading on this topic:
Mistreated: The Political Consequences of the Fight against AIDS in Lesotho (Nora Kenworthy)
Pandemic: Tracking Contagions, from Cholera to Ebola and Beyond (Sonia Shah)
The Anti-Politics Machine: Development, Depoliticization, and Bureaucratic Power in Lesotho (James Ferguson)
America's Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918 (Alfred W. Crosby)
Additional geopolitical reading suggestions can be found on our 2020 reading list
Purchases made using the links in this article earn referrals for Encyclopedia Geopolitica. As an independent publication, our writers are volunteers from within the professional geopolitical intelligence community, and referrals like this support future articles. Encyclopedia Geopolitica readers can also benefit from a free trial of Kindle Unlimited, which offers unlimited reading from over 1 million ebooks and thousands of audiobooks.
John Scott is a Scottish security analyst with expertise in counter-narcotics and non-state groups. John has degrees in Political Science from St Andrews and Glasgow University, and recently completed a NATO Military Security course in Lithuania. He has contributed policy research for a political group in the Central African Republic and organised crime analysis for Intelligence Fusion, and now works in political risk for a leading intelligence firm in London.
Photo: Fog over the Mohokare River Valley in Lesotho, Paramente Phamotse, Wikimedia Commons Image
This entry was posted in:Africa, Pandemics, Political leadership, Sub-Saharan Africa
Tagged with:Africa, Coronavirus, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Government, International Law, International Relations, Lesotho, Pandemics, Sub-Saharan Africa
Written by John Scott
View all posts by John Scott
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This recipe for Mashed Sweet Potatoes with Coconut Milk is sponsored by my friends at Hilary's. I love their foods made with real ingredients and free from common allergens.
Mashed Sweet Potatoes with Coconut Milk is a delicious side dish perfect for the holidays or any day of the year! It's vegan, dairy-free, sugar-free, gluten-free, and oil-free, yet full of flavor and easy to make.
Sweet potatoes, also known as yams, are nutritional powerhouses.
They are loaded with potassium, vitamin C, vitamin A, and vitamin B6.
Plus they are also high in dietary fiber.
And since they are naturally sweet, you don't need to add much to them to enjoy them.
In fact, one of my favorite ways to eat them is simply baked in the oven like a baked potato.
This recipe builds on that method.
All you need to do to make Mashed Sweet Potatoes is bake the yams in the oven with their skin on, peel them when they're cool enough to handle, then mash them with canned coconut milk and some seasonings.
You can even bake the sweet potatoes ahead of time so you can make this recipe in a matter of minutes on a busy weeknight.
One of my favorite ways to serve Mashed Sweet Potatoes is with a Hilary's burger.
Hilary's makes a wonderful selection of burgers, veggie bites, dressings, veggie sausages, and Millet Medleys.
They are made from minimally processed real foods such as black rice, millet, coconut milk, root vegetables, leafy greens, beans and pulses, chia and hemp seeds, apple cider vinegar, extra virgin olive oil, and sea salt.
And I'm excited to try their holiday stuffing!
It would be a fantastic addition to your holiday meal along with Mashed Sweet Potatoes and Roasted Brussels Sprouts and Butternut Squash or Shaved Brussels Sprouts Salad.
I love serving Mashed Sweet Potatoes topped with sauteed vegetables and a veggie burger.
You can choose any vegetables and variety of burger you like.
Then I drizzle a little dressing over it for some extra flavor.
To me this meal is elegant enough to serve for a special occasion, yet easy enough to make on a busy weeknight.
One of my favorite combinations is Mashed Sweet Potatoes, sauteed spinach, Hilary's Adzuki Bean Veggie Burger, sauteed crimini mushrooms, and Hilary's Remoulade Dressing.
How will you serve Mashed Sweet Potatoes with Coconut Milk?
Be sure to visit Hilary's to get more delicious recipes and coupons for their products!
Now let's make Mashed Sweet Potatoes with Coconut Milk!
Mashed Sweet Potatoes with Coconut Milk are prefect for the holidays or any time of year! You can bake your sweet potatoes ahead of time and refrigerate them until ready to use.
Preheat your oven to 400 degrees F. Line a baking sheet with parchment paper. Using a fork, prick the clean sweet potatoes in a few spots then place on the lined baking sheet. Bake until tender, about 45-60 minutes, depending on their size.
When the sweet potatoes are cool enough to handle, peel off the skin.
In a medium pan over medium-low heat, mash the peeled sweet potatoes with a potato masher. Add the coconut milk as you mash, starting with 1/4 of the can, and adding more as needed.
Season the mashed sweet potatoes with salt and pepper. Add a few pinches of cinnamon, if using.
Serve right away, or refrigerate until ready to serve. The mashed sweet potatoes can be reheated over medium-low heat. Add some of the extra coconut milk if needed.
I LOVE, LOVE, LOVE Hilary's! I practically survived on them while nursing Jonny and figuring out all of his allergies. They were one of his few safe foods. Jonny still loves their nuggets and David LOVES their ranch sauce. My fave are the root veggie burgers, and Irving likes the spicy flavors!!! And your sweet potatoes look delicious—I almost never eat these burgers in a bun, so I like the idea of topping them like this!
How cool! I love how they are an allergy-safe company. And their food tastes delicious!
Yum! And so much healthier than other sweet potato recipes. Having these as a choice at a potluck will help me avoid the unhealthy sweet potato dishes!
That's fantastic! I need to get a new electric mixer so I can do that, too!
Do you think they can be put in a casserole dish and oven reheated?
Hi Margaret, yes, they reheat very well.


text:
\section{Introduction}
The X-ray transient SAX J1808.4-3658 was discovered in September 1996
when it exhibited an outburst detected by the BeppoSAX Wide Field
Cameras (in 't Zand et al. 1998).  The source showed type-I
X-ray bursts that led to the identification of the compact object as a
neutron star (hereafter NS) and to the derivation of a distance of
about $2.5$ kpc (in 't Zand et al. 2001).
The source was found in
outburst again in April 1998, when the high temporal resolution of the
proportional counter array (PCA) on-board the Rossi X-ray Timing
Explorer (RXTE), allowed the discovery of coherent $401$ Hz pulsations,
making this source the first known accretion-driven
millisecond pulsar (Wijnands \& van der Klis 1998).
Timing analysis performed on data collected
over the period $11-18$ April 1998, allowed the determination of the
orbital parameters reported in Table \ref{tab1} (Chakrabarty \& Morgan 1998,
CM98 hereafter).
SAX J1808.4-3658 was again detected in outburst (and observed with RXTE/PCA)
in January 2000 (van der Klis et al. 2000) and in October 2002 (see
Wijnands 2004 for a review).

Correct ephemerides are of capital importance for the study of this
and similar systems, since these give us the possibility to
monitor the evolution of the spin and the orbital period of the system.
These, in turn, give important information on the mechanism of
the acceleration of a NS to millisecond periods and on the
evolutionary history of the system, respectively. Orbital ephemerides
are also important for performing studies, for instance, in other
wavelengths. In particular any search for radio pulsations during
quiescence (to test the hypothesis that the radio pulsar switches
on during quiescence) needs correct orbital parameters to perform
coherent search for pulsations and to improve by several orders of
magnitude the detection sensitivity.
In this paper we apply a temporal analysis on the three most recent
outbursts of SAX J1808.4--3658 in order to improve the orbital parameters
of the system; we find a new orbital solution which appears to be valid
from 1998 to 2002 (the entire period of the RXTE observations of \saxj
up to date).
In \S 2 we present the timing technique we developed to
obtain the revised estimate of the orbital period; in \S 3 we apply this
technique to the available RXTE/PCA datasets of the 1998, 2000, and 2002
outbursts of the source; in \S 4 we draw our conclusions.

\section{A method of timing for the orbital period}
Let us consider a binary system of ``true'' orbital period ${\cal
P}_{\rm orb}$, orbital separation ${\cal A}$, and negligible
eccentricity in which a source (hereafter the primary) orbits the
barycenter of the system at a radius ${\cal A}_1 = {\cal A} \,
m_2/(m_1 + m_2)$ (where $m_1 = M_1/\msun$ and $m_2 = M_2/\msun$ are
the masses of the primary and its companion, the secondary,
respectively).  The orbital motion causes delays in the times of
arrival, $t_{\rm arr}$, of a signal -- emitted by the primary at the
time $t_{\rm em}$ -- on the plane passing through the barycenter and
perpendicular to the line of sight: $t_{\rm arr} = t_{\rm em} +
Z(t_{\rm em})/c$, where $Z(t) = {\cal A}_1 \sin i
\sin\left[(2\pi/ {\cal P}_{\rm orb} )(t-{\cal T}^{*})\right]$
is the distance of the primary from the plane defined above, $i$ is
the inclination angle between the normal to the orbital plane and the
line of sight, ${\cal T}^{*}$ is the time of passage at the ascending
node, and $c$ is the speed of light.  With an observational estimate of
the orbital parameters $a_1 \, \sin i$, $P_{\rm orb}$, and $T^{*}$, we can
correct the arrival times of photons emitted by the primary for the
delays induced by the orbital motion.  A first order correction gives:
\begin{equation}
\label{eq:corr}
t_{\rm em} = t_{\rm arr} - \frac{1}{c}
a_1 \sin i \sin\left[ \frac{2\pi}{P_{\rm orb}}
\left(t_{\rm arr} - T^* \right)\right]
\end{equation}

The high temporal resolution RXTE data of \saxj span a period of
$\Delta T_{\rm data}\sim 4.5$ yr, from April 1998 to October 2002,
during which \saxj performed $N_{\rm max}\sim 19700$ orbital cycles
and $n_{\rm max} \sim 57$ billion spin cycles.  In order to perform a
timing analysis over the whole $\Delta T_{\rm data}$ we must
unambiguously associate $n$, i.e. the number of elapsed spin cycles
since the 1998 outburst, to any given $t_{\rm arr}$.
Neglecting any error on the spin period estimate $P_{\rm spin}$,
induced by the errors in the orbital correction, this association
would be possible if the intrinsic error on the estimate of $P_{\rm
spin}$, $\sigma_{\rm Pspin}$, is such that $ \sigma_{\rm Pspin}
\la \Pspin / n_{\rm max} \sim 4 \times 10^{-14} \; {\rm s.}$
CM98  reported  $\sigma_{\rm Pspin}  \sim 5
\times  10^{-12}$  s, thus ruling  out   the possibility  of making an
overall timing analysis over $\Delta T_{\rm data}$.

However, the large value of $N_{\rm max}$ suggested us to develop a
method of timing of the orbital period $P_{\rm orb}$ in order to improve the
orbital period estimate of CM98. Our idea is to estimate the time of
passage at a given point in the orbit, e.g. the ascending node
$T^{*}$, for any given orbital cycle $N$, and to fit these times $T^{*}$s
{\it vs} the corresponding $N$ to improve the estimate of $P_{\rm orb}$ and
to give a value (or an upper limit) for the orbital period derivative
$\Pdot$. This timing can be done providing that: i) we can
unambiguously associate $N$, i.e. the number of elapsed orbital cycles
since the 1998 outburst, to any given $T^*$. This is possible if
the error on $P_{\rm orb}$, $\sigma_{\rm Porb}$, is such that $\sigma_{\rm
Porb} \la P_{\rm orb} / N_{\rm max} \sim 0.4
\; {\rm s}$. CM98  reported  $\sigma_{\rm Porb} \sim 1 \times 10^{-3}$
s, thus making this association possible; ii) we are able to
estimate the $T^{*}$s for any orbital cycle $N$ with an error {\it
smaller} than $\sigma_{T_{\rm pred}^*} = ( \sigma_{T^*_0}^2 + N^2
\sigma_{\rm Porb}^2 )^{1/2} \sim N \sigma_{\rm Porb} $ obtained from
the propagation of the CM98 errors in the ``theoretical'' computation
of the $T_{\rm pred}^*$ at a given $N$ as $T_{\rm pred}^*(N) = T^*_0 + N
\times P_{\rm orb}$, where $T^*_0$ is the time of passage at the ascending node
at the beginning of the 1998 outburst, estimated by CM98.

Our strategy to estimate the values of $T^{*}$s relies on the fact
that the correction of the photon arrival times with
eq.\ (\ref{eq:corr}) induces a ``smearing'' in a pulse profile obtained
by an epoch folding search performed on the corrected lightcurve
because the corrections performed are affected by the errors in the
estimate of the orbital parameters. Indeed, simple differentiation of the
Doppler effect formula $\Pspin(t) = \Pspin \times (1 - v(t)/c)^{-1}$, where
$v(t)= \dot{Z}(t)$ is the speed along the line of sight, demonstrates
that the leading term in the error induced by eq.\ (\ref{eq:corr}) on
$\Pspin$ is $\sigma_{\rm Pspin} \la | \sin \phi | \Pspin a_1 \sin i (2\pi/
P_{\rm orb})^2 N_{\rm max}
\sigma_{P_{\rm orb}}$, where $\phi = (2\pi/P_{\rm orb}) (t - T^*)$ is the orbital phase.
Since $ | \sin \phi | \le 1$ we have
$\sigma_{\rm Pspin} \la \Pspin a_1 \sin i (2\pi/ P_{\rm orb})^2 N_{\rm max}
\sigma_{P_{\rm orb}}$. This means that folding a lightcurve of length
$\sim 1$ hour $\sim P_{\rm orb}/2$ at a period close to $\Pspin$ results into
delays up to $D_{\rm max} \sim \pi a_1 \sin i (2\pi/ P_{\rm orb}) N_{\rm max}
\sigma_{P_{\rm orb}}$.
Adopting the CM98 estimates of the orbital parameters
and the related errors we get $D_{\rm max} \sim 3.2 \times
10^{-3}\,{\rm s} \sim 1.3 \, \Pspin$ for the 2002 data,
which means that a significant smearing is
is induced by $\sigma_{T_{\rm pred}^*}
\sim N_{\rm max} \sigma_{\rm Porb}$, which represents our ignorance of
the ``true'' time of ascending node passage in the 2002 data determined by
the original error on $P_{\rm orb}$ propagated through the factor
$N_{\rm max}$.

Therefore we can ``experimentally'' estimate the $T^{*}$s in the
2000 and 2002 outbursts by correcting each $\sim 1$ hour length observation
with eq.\ (\ref{eq:corr}) in which several trial values of $T^{*}$ are adopted.
We then choose the $T^{*}$ for which the corresponding corrected
lightcurve gives a folded pulse profile with minimum
smearing, obtaining an error in the determination of that particular
$T^{*}$ that is expected to be {\it smaller} than the corresponding
$\sigma_{T_{\rm pred}^*}$\footnote{Note that, to estimate $T^*$
selecting the lightcurve with the minimum smearing, the $\sigma_{\rm Pspin}$
(caused by the uncertainty in the knowledge of the true time of ascending
node passage) must induce a genuine broadening of the folded pulse profile,
and not delays more or less constant during each
observation that can be compensated, in the folding search procedure, by
the selection of a different spin period.
Since the induced delays are not constant, but vary with time as $\sin \phi$,
the epoch folding search procedure must be performed
over a time span that is a relevant fraction of the orbital period,
so that $\sin \phi$ varies significantly. This condition is verified
by our sample of observations that last $\sim 1$ hour $\sim P_{\rm orb}/2$.}.

Since a folded pulse profile obtained by folding a lightcurve corrected
with the ``true'' time of ascending node passage (and therefore not smeared)
has a bigger pulsed fraction than one obtained by folding a lightcurve
corrected with a ``wrong'' time of ascending node passage (and therefore
significantly smeared), the experimental estimate of each
$T^{*}$ can be done by the following procedure: a) for a given
observation we produce a number of corrected lightcurves applying
eq.\ (\ref{eq:corr}) with different values of the time of ascending
node passage $T^{*}_{\rm trial}$; b) we then perform on each lightcurve an
epoch folding search for periodicities fitting the $\chi^2$ {\it vs} spin
period curve close to its
maximum with a Gaussian profile, to derive the maximum $\chi^2$ value,
$\chi^2_{\rm max}$, for the given value of $T^{*}_{\rm trial}$;
c) we plot these $\chi^2_{\rm max}$ {\it vs} their corresponding
$T^{*}_{\rm trial}$ and we fit the part of this curve close to its maximum
again with a Gaussian choosing, as our experimental estimate of the time of
passage at the ascending node $T^{*}$, the value of $T^{*}_{\rm trial}$
for which this Gaussian has a maximum.  The uncertainties on $T^{*}$
are computed using post-fit residuals, i.e.\ the average fluctuation of the
$T^{*}$ values vs.\ the orbital cycle number $N$ with respect the average
trend (see below).
This is the more conservative way of estimating the errors in the case of
data with similar statistical significance as expected since we have used
datasets of comparable length (see Tab. 1): indeed the post-fit errors are
$\sim 8$ times bigger than the errors based on a fit of the top of the Gaussian.

This technique supplies us with values of the epoch of ascending node
passage $T_N^*$ that can be compared with the ones predicted using the
original estimate of orbital parameters $T_{\rm pred}^*(N) = T^*_0 + N
\times P_{\rm orb}$. We therefore plot the delays $\Delta T_N^{*} = T_N^{*}
- T_{\rm pred}^{*}(N) $ versus $N$ (we note that
$N$ is derived  unambiguously as the integer part of
$ (T_N^{*} - T^*_0)/ P_{\rm orb}$ under the assumption that $| T_N^{*} - T^*_0 |
< P_{\rm orb}$ that we have also verified {\it a posteriori}),
fit the data with the relation
\begin{equation}
\label{eq:fit}
\Delta T_N^*= \alpha + \beta N + \gamma N^2
\end{equation}
and finally obtain our improved orbital parameters as
${\bf T^*_0} = T^*_0 + \alpha$, $\sigma_{\bf T^*_0} = \sigma_{\alpha}$,
${\bf P_{\rm orb}} = P_{\rm orb} + \beta$, $\sigma_{\bf P_{\rm orb}} = \sigma_{\beta}$,
$\Pdot = 2\gamma /{\bf P_{\rm orb}}$, $\sigma_{\Pdot} = (2/{\bf P_{\rm orb}})
[ (\gamma /{\bf P_{\rm orb}})^2 \sigma_{\beta}^2 + \sigma_{\gamma}^2 ]^{1/2}$.
Although we devoleped this technique independently, we subsequentely found
that a similar one had already been used by Paul et al. (2001) and Naik \& Paul
(2004).

\section{Observations and analysis}
Throughout this paper we used the ToO public domain data of the PCA
on-board RXTE (Bradt et al. 1993). In particular, we analyzed
data from the PCA (Jahoda et al.\ 1996), which is composed by a set of
five Xenon proportional counters operating in the 2--60 keV energy
range with a total effective area of $\sim 7000$ cm$^2$.
We considered a sample (listed in Table \ref{tab2}) of the
available PCA observations of SAX J1808.4--3658 taken during the 1998,
2000 and 2002 outbursts in which the spin modulation was particularly
strong.
For the temporal analysis we used event mode data with
64 energy channels and $122\mu$s temporal resolution; the arrival
times of all the events were reported to the solar system barycenter.

For the first 2002 observation (see Table \ref{tab2}) we produced a set of
lightcurves performing orbital correction adopting eq.\ (\ref{eq:corr}),
with $a_1 \sin i$ and $P_{\rm orb}$ as determined by CM98. According to the
method described above, we adopted different $T^*$ spanning a range around
the predicted value resulting from $T_{\rm pred}^*(N_{\rm G}) = T^*_0 +
N_{\rm G} P_{\rm orb}$, where $N_{\rm G}$ is our initial guess of $N$:
$N_{\rm G} = {\rm INT}
\{(t_{02} - T^*_0)/P_{\rm orb}\}$, with $t_{02}$ the starting time of the first 2002
observation. The $T^*$ range spans $\sim 40$ s in steps of 2 s as
$\sigma_{T_{\rm pred}^*} \la N_{\rm max} \sigma_{\rm Porb} \sim 20$ s
adopting the CM98 estimates.
We then performed an epoch folding search on each corrected lightcurve,
but, surprisingly, no pulsation was detected in any of them.

Thus we extended the range of trial values for $T^*$ to explore the entire
orbit until we obtained lightcurves for which the epoch folding search
produced $\chi^2$ peaks (typically with maxima of $\sim 3000$ over an average
value of $\sim 40$) around periods close to $\Pspin$.
Following the method described above we then fitted the curve of the
maxima of the $\chi^2$ (obtained from the epoch folding search on each
lightcurve) {\it vs} the corresponding $T^*$ with a Gaussian and derived
our best estimate of the time of ascending node passage for the first 2002
observation $T^*_{N_{02}}$. We then estimated $N_{02}$, i.e. the number
of orbital cycles elapsed since $T^*_0$ as
$N_{02} = INT\{ (T^*_{N_{02}} - T^*_0)/P_{\rm orb} \} = 19657$
and therefore adopted a new estimate of the orbital period
$P_{\rm orb}^{\rm new}$ that is obtained from $P_{\rm orb}^{\rm new} =
(T^*_{N_{02}} - T^*_0)/N_{02}$.
We checked the consistency of our provisional estimate of the orbital
period $P_{\rm orb}^{\rm new}$ demonstrating that $N_{02}$ can be
unambiguously associated  to $T^*_{N_{02}}$ by verifying that
$INT\{ (T^*_{N_{02}} - T^*_0)/P_{\rm orb} \} = INT\{ (T^*_{N_{02}} -
T^*_0)/P_{\rm orb}^{\rm new} \}$.

With this new estimate we repeated the procedure described above on
each observation listed in Table \ref{tab2}, with different $T^*$ spanning a
range of 40 s around the new predicted value resulting from $T_{\rm
new}^*(N_{\rm G}) = T^*_0 + N_{\rm G} P_{\rm orb}^{\rm new}$, where
$N_{\rm G} = {\rm INT} \{(t - T^*_0)/P_{\rm orb}\}$, with $t$ the starting
time of each observation. Encouragingly we always detected the
pulsation, although with different strength (as deduced from the
different maximum $\chi^2$), by performing the epoch folding search on the
corrected lightcurves.  This allowed us to determine a set of 15
$T^*_N$, one for each observation.

In Fig. 1 (top and middle panel) we plot the delays between the
$T_N^{*}$ values and the values predicted adopting the CM98 estimates
$\Delta T_N^{*} = T_N^{*} - T_{\rm pred}^*(N)$ versus the number of
orbital cycles elapsed since $T^*_0$: where $N = {\rm INT}
\{(T_N^{*} - T^*_0)/P_{\rm orb}\}$, and $T_{\rm pred}^*(N) = T^*_0 + N \times
P_{\rm orb}$.  It should be noted that all the delays are $\le P_{\rm orb}$ which
demonstrates {\it a posteriori} the consistency of our method, since
we were able to associate unambiguously $N$ to any $T_N^{*}$.  Fitting
these delays with eq.\ (\ref{eq:fit}) we find the improved orbital
parameters and the first constraint on the orbital period derivative
that are reported in Table \ref{tab1}.

We finally corrected all the observations using eq.\ (\ref{eq:corr})
with the improved value of the orbital period ${\bf P_{\rm orb}}$
and again we produced, for each observation, a set of lightcurves with
different $T^*$ spanning a range around the predicted value resulting
from ${\bf T}_{\rm pred}^*(N) = {\bf T^*_0} + {\bf P_{\rm orb}} \times N$
that allowed us to determine the new set of
15 ${\bf T}^*_N$.  We finally computed the ``post fit'' residuals as
${\cal R}(N) = {\bf T}_N^{*} - {\bf T}_{\rm pred}^*(N)$ in order to
check if the residuals were now compatible with zero.  In Fig. 1
(bottom panel) we plotted ${\cal R}(N)$ versus $N$ to demonstrate the
consistency of our method.

\section{Discussion}
For the estimate of the $T^*$s we have corrected the photons arrival times
with eq.\ (\ref{eq:corr}), adopting the estimate of $P_{\rm orb}$ and
$ x = a_1 \sin i/c$ given by CM98.  This seemed appropriate since we have
demonstrated that, adopting the value of $\sigma_{P_{\rm orb}}$ and $\sigma_{x}$
reported by CM98, the leading term in $\sigma_{\rm Pspin}$ depends only on
$\sigma_{T_{\rm pred}^*} \sim N_{\rm max} \sigma_{\rm Porb}$.
However, at the end of our analysis, we found that our best-fit orbital period
is incompatible with that reported in CM98, and this explains why the
use of the ephemeris published in CM98 allows to recover the coherent
pulsations only during the 1998 outburst.
We want to stress that a test of the correctness of our orbital
solution is given by the fact that with our revised orbital
parameters we can recover the pulsations in all the observations between
1998 and 2002.

We also found a $\Pdot \neq 0$ (at $1 \sigma$ confidence level) which
means that in principle its effects on orbital parameters
during $\Delta T_{\rm data} \sim 4.5$ yr must be discussed.
Indeed the orbital period has varied and, because of the three
outburst that occurred during $\Delta T_{\rm data}$, $m_1$ and $m_2$
varied as a consequence of mass transfer.  Both these variations
produce, because of third Kepler's law, a variation of the orbital
separation along $\Delta T_{\rm data}$ which reflects in a
secular variation of $x$.  We therefore checked {\it a posteriori}
that both the secular variation of $x$ and $P_{\rm orb}$ did not affect our
determination of the orbital parameters of the system.
By differentiating ${\cal P}_{\rm orb}(t) = {\cal P}_{\rm orb}(t=t_0)+
\Pdot \times (t-t_0)$ and the third Kepler's law
(assuming that the inclination angle has remained constant),
we have demonstrated that the uncertainties on $P_{\rm orb}$
and $x$ in the 2002 outburst are always dominated by the uncertainties
in their original determination as given by CM98. In particular we
obtain that the uncertainty on $x$ induced by mass transfer is of the
order of $10^{-9} d_{2.5}^2 m_1^{-1} R_6$ times the uncertainty reported
by CM98, as soon as the orbital period derivative is
$|\Pdot| \le 3 \times 10^{-12}$, the number of orbital cycles elapsed
since the 1998 outburst is $N \la N_{\rm max}$, and the averaged mass loss
rate by the secondary during the whole period $\Delta T_{\rm data}$ is
not much greater than the average mass transfer rate during the three
outbursts, which is $\dot{M}_{\rm outb}/(10^{-10}
\msun {\rm yr}^{-1}) = 3.7\, d_{2.5}^{2} m_1^{-1} R_6$ (as can be easily
determined from an analysis of the X-ray luminosity during the 1998,
2000, and 2002 outbursts), where $d_{2.5}$ is the source distance in units of
2.5 kpc and $R_6$ is the NS radius in units of $10^6$ cm.
Therefore, our assumption of using $a_1 \sin i$ and $P_{\rm orb}$ as given by
CM98 in eq.\ (\ref{eq:corr}) is justified {\it a posteriori},
since their associated uncertainties, even taking into account the
effects of orbital evolution, are always comparable with those
estimated by CM98.

The improved estimate of $P_{\rm orb}$ derived in this paper (whose associated
error, $\sigma_{P_{\rm orb}}$, is 10 times smaller than that reported by CM98)
allowed us to correct a lightcurve using eq.\ (\ref{eq:corr}) with the
improved value of the orbital period ${\bf P_{\rm orb}}$
and the predicted value of $T^*$ resulting from ${\bf
T}_{\rm pred}^*(N) = {\bf T^*_0} + {\bf P_{\rm orb}} \times N$.
As discussed in the fourth paragraph of \S 2, folding this lightcurve modulo
$\Pspin$ for any time interval $\Delta T_{\rm fold} \ge P_{\rm orb}/2$ introduces
delays in the reconstruction of the pulse profile up to $D_{\rm max} \sim 2
a_1 \sin i (2\pi/ P_{\rm orb}) N_{\rm max}
\sigma_{P_{\rm orb}}$ (since $|\sin \phi|\le 1$ is a
periodic function of period $P_{\rm orb}/2$ and average value $2/\pi \sim 0.6$).
Adopting our new estimate of $\sigma_{P_{\rm orb}}$
we get $D_{\rm max} \sim 2.0 \times
10^{-4}\,{\rm s} \sim 0.08 \, \Pspin$ for the 2002 data.
Which means that if the number of bins in the pulse profile is up to few tens,
we do not expect a significant distortion because of the uncertainties
in the orbital parameters.
In Fig. \ref{fig2} we compare two pulse profiles obtained by folding
modulo $\Pspin$ (the CM98 estimate) $\sim 20$ and $\sim 8$ hours of data
of the 1998 and 2002 outbursts, respectively,
corrected with eq.\ (\ref{eq:corr}). It is evident that the 2002
pulse profile has significantly varied with respect to the almost sinusoidal
shape showed in the 1998 outburst; in particular we find a secondary peak
at about $145^{\circ}$ from the main pulse. This variability of the pulse
profile suggests that strong caution should be taken in carrying out the
standard pulse timing analysis when
computing the delays of the time of arrival of a pulse by cross-correlating
the locally folded pulse profile with a sinusoid, as done in CM98.
Temporary variations of the pulse shape could introduce spurious
delays that may significantly affect the robustness of some derived
parameters e.g.\ the local spin period derivative.

In our analysis we found
$-6.6 \times 10^{-12} < \Pdot < +0.8 \times 10^{-12}$  s s$^{-1}$
(90\% c.l.).
Indeed, orbital evolution calculations show that the magnitude of
the $\Pdot$ caused by angular momentum
losses associated with the emission of gravitational radiation is
expected to be one order of magnitude
smaller, $\Pdot \sim - 3.0 \times 10^{-13} (n-1/3) m_1 (m_1+m_2)^{-1/3}
P_{\rm 2h}^{-2/3}$ s s$^{-1}$, where we assumed a mass--radius relation
for the secondary $R_2 \propto m_2^n$, and $P_{\rm 2h}$ is the orbital
period in units of 2 hours. However the error in the estimate of
$\Pdot$ scales as $\Delta T_{\rm data}^2$. This means that if, as
expected, the next outburst of \saxj will occur in 2005,
we will reduce $\sigma_{\Pdot}$ by a factor
$\sim (4.5\,{\rm yr}/7 \,{\rm yr})^2 \sim 0.4$.
This new measure could severely constraint some of the evolutionary
scenario proposed: for instance, the degenerate nature of the companion
(that has been proposed to be a brown dwarf by Bildsten \& Chakrabarty 2001)
will be effectively probed, since $n\le 0$, as expected for a degenerate
companion, would imply $\Pdot > 0$.

\acknowledgements
This work was partially supported by the MIUR.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaArXiv